Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 667467 45.31% 30.08 -0.567 72.4% -0.837 -0.779
B 685100 44.58% 31.17 -0.27 73.51% -0.78 -0.661
C 786242 44.28% 31.35 0.212 75.26% -0.653 -0.604
D 635762 44.6% 30.46 -0.611 73.59% -0.798 -0.757
E 267058 45.55% 34.95 0.671 73.57% -0.625 -0.611
F 332120 43.99% 33.65 0.233 74.82% -0.719 -0.693
G 298542 44.47% 33.08 0.108 74.43% -0.744 -0.674
H 307546 42.8% 33.87 0.671 75.71% -0.645 -0.6
East 103421 44.91% 40.43 1.467 65.98% -0.596 -0.86
Northeast 60446 43.02% 41.39 0.151 66.96% -0.859 -0.995
Northwest 46413 41.86% 41.03 0.002 68.25% -0.698 -0.942
Southeast 16561 41.18% 37.34 -0.262 69.81% -0.659 -1.243
Southwest 15272 44.12% 33.74 -2.403 65.4% -1.15 -1.4
West 87389 45.41% 38.87 0.579 65.11% -0.94 -0.98

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 237594 0.0% 18.91 -4.022 68.94% -0.881 -1.179
Not Using Events or Tokens 647340 45.09% 23.04 -2.974 72.44% -0.326 -0.272
Skip Initial Invader Actions 90029 14.28% 39.27 3.178 89.82% 0.541 0.142
Start of Game Growth 129613 17.18% 38.84 3.149 88.33% 0.319 0.39
Unlimited Undo 306513 37.04% 34.63 0.439 81.01% 0.014 0.725
Using Tokens but Not Events 311003 32.67% 30.07 -0.632 81.19% 0.057 -0.075

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 95688 31.0 1.143 52.57% -0.266 -0.867
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78069 33.22 2.822 56.45% -0.007 -0.594
All Things Weaken 55330 30.99 0.479 50.37% -0.436 -0.909
Attenuated Essence 1661 28.74 0.879 48.4% -0.191 -1.104
Back Against the Wall 74895 31.64 2.114 53.06% -0.141 -0.74
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1698 28.34 0.647 43.7% -0.384 -0.937
Burn Brightest Before the End 1274 30.78 1.758 48.74% -0.294 -0.958
Disintegrating Ecosystem 90738 28.15 -0.624 49.16% -0.503 -1.03
Downward Spiral 219458 25.49 -0.704 56.52% -0.329 -0.801
Erosion of Will 94181 29.83 0.591 49.72% -0.385 -1.025
Intensifying Exploitation 1811 27.7 0.23 45.11% -0.367 -1.104
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21044 37.75 2.686 79.88% 0.519 -0.071
Memory Fades to Dust 220953 24.91 -1.033 52.6% -0.466 -0.928
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54425 30.85 0.588 53.2% -0.29 -0.909
Promising Farmlands 92046 28.84 -0.655 49.51% -0.569 -1.064
Shattered Fragments of Power 1365 32.14 2.504 51.65% -0.153 -0.735
Slow Dissolution of Will 1694 28.19 0.492 41.97% -0.503 -1.198
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13908 38.15 3.575 83.68% 0.653 0.176
The Border of Life and Death 477 29.75 1.539 61.64% 0.179 -0.623
Thriving Communities 53806 30.16 -0.019 51.07% -0.461 -0.922
Thriving Crops 786 29.6 1.03 55.22% -0.047 -0.69
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -3.067 49.05% 0.146 -1.062
Unnatural Proliferation 57717 32.14 1.722 51.86% -0.292 -0.865
Untended Land Crumbles 54466 30.18 0.277 51.31% -0.321 -0.98

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.09 Win Model: 0.61
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2329217 30.98 71.51%
2 526226 31.92 74.27%
3 140740 34.26 77.84%
4 92299 38.46 80.07%
5 1710 33.84 81.29%
6 6286 36.78 77.49%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.03 Win Model: 0.07

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)