Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 666333 45.32% 30.09 -0.583 72.43% -0.84 -0.78
B 683845 44.59% 31.19 -0.267 73.55% -0.779 -0.661
C 784920 44.29% 31.36 0.2 75.29% -0.654 -0.605
D 634634 44.61% 30.47 -0.606 73.63% -0.799 -0.755
E 266266 45.57% 34.97 0.665 73.61% -0.629 -0.611
F 331366 43.99% 33.66 0.233 74.85% -0.719 -0.693
G 297862 44.48% 33.1 0.1 74.47% -0.742 -0.675
H 306858 42.81% 33.88 0.658 75.75% -0.648 -0.599
East 103234 44.93% 40.45 1.49 66.03% -0.604 -0.859
Northeast 60321 43.04% 41.42 0.181 67.01% -0.881 -0.995
Northwest 46333 41.87% 41.07 0.144 68.3% -0.673 -0.939
Southeast 16504 41.22% 37.39 -0.139 69.94% -0.636 -1.239
Southwest 15224 44.14% 33.78 -2.342 65.48% -1.165 -1.398
West 87263 45.42% 38.89 0.569 65.14% -0.964 -0.98

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 237224 0.0% 18.92 -4.029 69.0% -0.883 -1.185
Not Using Events or Tokens 646333 45.1% 23.05 -3.013 72.48% -0.332 -0.273
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89909 14.28% 39.27 3.218 89.85% 0.535 0.143
Start of Game Growth 129416 17.17% 38.85 3.186 88.36% 0.33 0.39
Unlimited Undo 305930 37.05% 34.65 0.448 81.06% 0.022 0.725
Using Tokens but Not Events 310445 32.67% 30.08 -0.686 81.24% 0.054 -0.071

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 95587 31.01 1.137 52.58% -0.271 -0.871
Aid From Lesser Spirits 77997 33.22 2.72 56.45% -0.039 -0.598
All Things Weaken 55222 31.0 0.398 50.39% -0.461 -0.912
Attenuated Essence 1590 28.79 0.781 48.81% -0.206 -1.085
Back Against the Wall 74808 31.65 2.108 53.07% -0.162 -0.744
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1636 28.3 0.516 43.58% -0.414 -0.929
Burn Brightest Before the End 1228 30.85 1.678 49.1% -0.305 -0.938
Disintegrating Ecosystem 90627 28.16 -0.68 49.17% -0.527 -1.035
Downward Spiral 219183 25.49 -0.758 56.53% -0.353 -0.805
Erosion of Will 94075 29.84 0.556 49.73% -0.408 -1.029
Intensifying Exploitation 1755 27.83 0.158 45.19% -0.387 -1.094
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20994 37.77 2.784 79.92% 0.525 -0.071
Memory Fades to Dust 220720 24.91 -1.067 52.62% -0.481 -0.932
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54320 30.86 0.525 53.21% -0.305 -0.913
Promising Farmlands 91931 28.84 -0.675 49.52% -0.586 -1.068
Shattered Fragments of Power 1296 32.21 2.411 51.77% -0.179 -0.723
Slow Dissolution of Will 1629 28.26 0.394 41.93% -0.534 -1.204
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13885 38.15 3.668 83.7% 0.678 0.169
The Border of Life and Death 461 29.35 1.247 60.95% 0.13 -0.629
Thriving Communities 53704 30.16 -0.117 51.07% -0.493 -0.926
Thriving Crops 761 29.6 0.909 54.93% -0.088 -0.72
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -3.172 49.05% 0.142 -1.066
Unnatural Proliferation 57616 32.15 1.749 51.87% -0.297 -0.869
Untended Land Crumbles 54358 30.19 0.172 51.31% -0.358 -0.984

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.09 Win Model: 0.62
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2325315 30.99 71.55%
2 525118 31.94 74.31%
3 140401 34.27 77.85%
4 92169 38.47 80.11%
5 1687 33.99 81.56%
6 6218 36.9 77.71%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.02 Win Model: 0.06

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)