Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 844111 43.89% 28.19 -0.559 67.58% -0.863 -1.044
B 858364 43.4% 29.35 -0.231 68.85% -0.821 -0.925
C 982178 43.01% 29.61 0.32 70.79% -0.698 -0.812
D 791826 43.34% 28.66 -0.641 68.98% -0.856 -1.002
E 372551 43.6% 32.6 0.73 68.75% -0.688 -0.84
F 433485 42.73% 31.61 0.108 70.15% -0.818 -0.922
G 387933 43.16% 31.2 -0.231 69.92% -0.88 -0.925
H 399588 41.58% 31.99 0.179 71.12% -0.781 -0.863
East 126903 42.57% 37.84 1.146 62.29% -0.793 -1.15
Northeast 74347 40.68% 38.78 0.986 63.17% -0.881 -1.185
Northwest 56918 39.73% 37.97 -0.409 63.78% -0.871 -1.331
Southeast 23357 37.29% 33.48 -0.762 62.55% -0.859 -1.502
Southwest 21790 39.62% 29.92 -2.484 57.72% -1.209 -1.742
West 107485 43.04% 36.1 -0.029 60.94% -1.06 -1.207

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 305657 0.0% 17.02 -3.7 62.13% -0.716 -0.828
Not Using Events or Tokens 824746 43.57% 20.94 -3.098 65.96% -0.474 -0.426
Skip Initial Invader Actions 108997 14.32% 38.15 4.94 85.9% 0.567 0.103
Start of Game Growth 158487 17.4% 37.53 4.104 84.28% 0.664 0.435
Unlimited Undo 380765 36.21% 32.71 0.11 75.67% -0.023 0.544
Using Tokens but Not Events 391438 31.43% 28.48 -0.852 76.92% -0.048 -0.171

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 110586 30.58 1.794 51.75% -0.104 -0.495
Aid From Lesser Spirits 89500 32.97 3.344 55.92% 0.145 -0.215
All Things Weaken 69397 30.1 0.65 48.93% -0.366 -0.551
Attenuated Essence 10438 29.36 1.74 48.36% 0.002 -0.586
Back Against the Wall 86185 31.36 2.644 52.65% -0.065 -0.365
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10529 28.14 0.915 45.01% -0.235 -0.693
Burn Brightest Before the End 7698 30.53 2.144 47.71% -0.16 -0.579
Disintegrating Ecosystem 105764 27.61 -0.251 48.12% -0.376 -0.662
Downward Spiral 259721 24.59 -0.195 54.65% -0.072 -0.43
Erosion of Will 109104 29.41 1.1 48.96% -0.256 -0.657
Intensifying Exploitation 10754 27.12 0.377 43.66% -0.274 -0.71
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26544 36.27 2.435 76.8% 0.487 0.203
Memory Fades to Dust 261402 24.06 -0.103 50.91% -0.183 -0.553
Power Corrodes the Spirit 68168 29.96 0.971 51.64% -0.213 -0.556
Promising Farmlands 106842 28.33 0.284 48.58% -0.323 -0.702
Shattered Fragments of Power 7707 31.01 2.293 48.05% -0.17 -0.515
Slow Dissolution of Will 10368 27.21 0.787 40.51% -0.384 -0.845
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17476 36.86 3.675 80.53% 0.676 0.446
The Border of Life and Death 2843 30.73 2.815 63.24% 0.516 -0.153
Thriving Communities 67818 29.17 0.273 49.49% -0.324 -0.572
Thriving Crops 4763 29.18 1.057 54.15% -0.001 -0.418
Tipping Point 30959 28.15 0.0 49.04% 0.0 -0.671
Unnatural Proliferation 71782 31.48 1.639 50.82% -0.187 -0.493
Untended Land Crumbles 68408 29.33 0.567 49.67% -0.339 -0.623

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.0 Win Model: 0.65
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2934852 29.28 67.21%
2 666791 30.03 69.83%
3 182403 32.45 73.31%
4 114555 35.37 74.23%
5 3665 29.24 70.2%
6 12285 32.15 65.35%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.2 Win Model: 0.13

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)