Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A 465989 45.47% 30.08 -0.658 73.37% 1.111
B 481133 44.73% 31.15 -0.157 74.52% 1.207
C 546253 44.54% 31.31 0.297 76.31% 1.438
D 450350 44.73% 30.53 -0.359 74.67% 1.201
E 131683 46.62% 35.45 0.832 74.98% 1.312
F 199454 43.67% 34.05 0.419 76.31% 1.264
G 181859 44.39% 33.53 0.245 75.73% 1.256
H 188182 42.58% 34.32 0.522 77.03% 1.266
East 44207 43.09% 42.94 2.418 67.88% 0.979
Northeast 44149 44.12% 41.57 1.884 66.98% 0.93
Northwest 34258 42.52% 41.33 1.598 68.55% 0.997
Southeast 8633 42.89% 37.5 0.504 71.97% 1.024
Southwest 8013 46.9% 33.55 -1.963 66.39% 0.618
West 39441 44.14% 41.21 1.278 65.7% 0.723

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
No Blight Card 174458 0.0% 19.32 -4.52 70.44% -2.055
Not Using Events or Tokens 474456 46.06% 23.37 -2.917 73.4% -0.218
Skip Initial Invader Actions 65402 14.05% 39.19 2.998 90.85% 0.694
Start of Game Growth 91310 16.37% 38.4 2.521 89.62% 0.462
Unlimited Undo 207421 36.62% 34.66 1.323 82.35% 0.421
Using Tokens but Not Events 209770 33.78% 30.17 -1.009 82.16% 0.053

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land 66449 30.72 -2.254 52.63% -2.074
Aid From Lesser Spirits 54003 32.77 -1.242 56.29% -1.919
All Things Weaken 28650 30.79 -2.338 50.79% -2.159
Back Against the Wall 51600 31.17 -2.0 52.78% -2.095
Disintegrating Ecosystem 62715 27.86 -3.692 49.22% -2.225
Downward Spiral 160576 25.35 -3.403 57.1% -2.021
Erosion of Will 65082 29.6 -2.797 49.92% -2.209
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10854 37.75 1.235 80.55% -0.694
Memory Fades to Dust 161628 24.73 -3.72 52.91% -2.219
Power Corrodes the Spirit 28188 30.73 -2.342 53.83% -2.022
Promising Farmlands 63976 28.52 -3.352 49.63% -2.215
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7127 38.11 1.495 84.96% -0.412
Thriving Communities 27793 30.1 -2.684 52.05% -2.094
Tipping Point 30939 28.15 -3.414 49.04% -2.226
Unnatural Proliferation 29872 31.82 -1.827 52.36% -2.089
Untended Land Crumbles 28068 30.1 -2.671 51.82% -2.108

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.24 Win Model: -1.11
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 1554171 30.91 72.58%
2 356761 32.06 75.26%
3 94069 34.31 78.82%
4 67079 38.81 80.28%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.42 Win Model: -0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-26 02:10:15 (Pacific Time)