Spirit Island Digital Statistics

Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Difficulty Model	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
A Spread of Rampant Green	178042	33.13%	-0.184	32.43	0.116	78.55%	-0.104
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	114028	57.72%	-0.2	28.67	-1.186	70.38%	-0.198
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	90168	36.82%	-0.28	32.52	-0.002	80.33%	0.114
Eyes Watch From the Trees	123681	28.01%	-0.254	36.82	1.874	85.23%	0.404
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	96152	33.64%	-0.275	35.08	1.106	82.21%	0.305
Fractured Days Split the Sky	25702	44.34%	-0.136	38.47	2.108	70.96%	-0.348
Heart of the Wildfire	138570	66.64%	-0.182	27.54	-2.193	64.0%	-0.319
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	263989	41.01%	-0.206	37.92	1.965	78.14%	0.343
Lightning's Swift Strike	257512	46.34%	-0.127	29.13	-0.697	72.33%	-0.226
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	61738	48.43%	-0.244	38.23	1.817	75.89%	0.287

Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
No Adversary	—	0	895146	33.09%	20.97	0.000	83.55%	0.000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	12210	37.89%	29.23	-0.626	83.96%	-0.289
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	9021	44.71%	33.06	1.356	80.38%	-0.414
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	11012	58.96%	36.8	3.402	70.54%	-0.883
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	13057	64.88%	36.99	3.527	63.26%	-1.242
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	8577	79.79%	39.09	4.941	52.41%	-1.497
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	3996	82.93%	37.52	4.145	40.29%	-1.939
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	25161	79.39%	40.58	5.666	41.02%	-2.043
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	67913	36.51%	25.24	-1.85	84.75%	-0.041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	47098	40.73%	29.61	0.319	84.2%	0.018

Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
Blitz	0	25240	45.8%	28.58	-1.738	67.58%	-0.566
Dahan Insurrection	4	35614	35.28%	53.59	9.84	68.99%	-0.4
Despicable Theft	2	1488	45.7%	34.61	1.75	78.09%	-0.274
Elemental Invocation	1	3070	54.27%	30.04	-1.289	68.11%	-0.502
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	98615	18.13%	44.77	4.687	75.57%	-0.365
Powers Long Forgotten	1	12716	53.0%	34.0	0.617	68.62%	-0.446
Rituals of Terror	3	10800	49.94%	38.18	3.725	65.99%	-0.645
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	7150	73.92%	33.84	1.535	57.62%	-0.647
Second Wave	0	80115	44.76%	28.66	-0.756	74.37%	-0.43
The Great River	3	3223	51.85%	31.92	0.387	61.5%	-1.473

Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
1	Single Board	1579646	47.41%	30.68	-0.426	73.1%	-0.086
1	Thematic	84961	51.03%	36.45	1.192	62.57%	-0.277
2	Archipelago	259	44.19%	46.02	5.512	81.08%	-0.007
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	251996	46.6%	31.68	-0.067	75.28%	-0.026
2	Coastline	35748	42.57%	32.33	-0.008	78.03%	0.025
2	Fragment	7462	50.1%	29.21	-1.114	72.66%	-0.223
2	Heart	4731	42.26%	28.58	-0.953	77.93%	-0.1
2	Opposite Shores	53012	41.78%	32.07	-0.366	77.12%	-0.065
2	Thematic	22223	47.27%	38.41	0.739	66.13%	0.067
2	Top to Top	8674	45.35%	33.38	0.497	76.77%	0.069

Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
A	495146	45.53%	30.14	-0.659	73.37%	0.688
B	511444	44.8%	31.22	-0.154	74.52%	0.784
C	581467	44.54%	31.38	0.297	76.32%	1.013
D	477691	44.82%	30.59	-0.359	74.65%	0.777
E	150187	46.71%	35.52	0.849	74.94%	0.894
East	46545	42.86%	43.09	2.435	68.2%	0.576
F	219393	43.82%	34.1	0.423	76.24%	0.841
G	199102	44.51%	33.53	0.23	75.7%	0.832
H	205892	42.76%	34.32	0.501	76.96%	0.839
Northeast	46706	44.11%	41.62	1.88	67.09%	0.525
Northwest	35942	42.38%	41.42	1.606	68.86%	0.595
Southeast	9515	42.54%	37.81	0.546	72.29%	0.629
Southwest	8913	46.93%	33.81	-1.95	66.21%	0.199
West	41622	43.94%	41.47	1.351	66.12%	0.327

Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
No Blight Card	184404	0.0%	19.32	-4.533	70.48%	-2.053
Not Using Events or Tokens	502769	45.85%	23.41	-2.91	73.47%	-0.215
Skip Initial Invader Actions	69246	14.08%	39.26	2.982	90.87%	0.686
Start of Game Growth	97372	16.41%	38.49	2.533	89.65%	0.469
Unlimited Undo	222441	36.76%	34.61	1.279	82.39%	0.423
Using Tokens but Not Events	224163	33.44%	30.21	-1.021	82.32%	0.051

Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land	71109	30.78	-2.247	52.69%	-2.069
Aid From Lesser Spirits	57832	32.85	-1.225	56.35%	-1.913
All Things Weaken	32665	30.81	-2.35	50.61%	-2.159
Back Against the Wall	55218	31.28	-1.976	52.9%	-2.087
Disintegrating Ecosystem	67083	27.91	-3.694	49.25%	-2.222
Downward Spiral	169853	25.38	-3.412	57.04%	-2.022
Erosion of Will	69675	29.62	-2.811	49.91%	-2.208
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	12363	37.95	1.305	80.62%	-0.679
Memory Fades to Dust	171092	24.79	-3.712	52.94%	-2.215
Power Corrodes the Spirit	32051	30.78	-2.342	53.76%	-2.021
Promising Farmlands	68216	28.59	-3.341	49.72%	-2.208
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	8169	38.22	1.513	84.83%	-0.411
Thriving Communities	31633	30.11	-2.697	51.97%	-2.088
Tipping Point	30944	28.15	-3.426	49.05%	-2.225
Unnatural Proliferation	34053	31.9	-1.813	52.37%	-2.081
Untended Land Crumbles	32033	30.17	-2.663	51.9%	-2.102

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Discarded	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	68521	272388	4.094	34.073	78.24%
Animated Wrackroot	62929	279732	4.134	36.094	81.16%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	26083	158231	4.069	35.828	80.81%
Birds Cry Warning	29489	155409	4.987	38.495	78.07%
Blood Draws Predators	44632	139984	4.777	38.015	80.29%
Call of the Dahan Ways	165002	312283	3.313	33.461	80.36%
Call To Bloodshed	117936	374949	2.637	29.428	76.13%
Call to Ferocity	51164	291240	4.848	38.468	80.5%
Call to Guard	64545	123137	5.077	38.997	79.58%
Call To Isolation	108612	363155	4.321	36.891	81.2%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Discarded	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	104960	189062	1.656	26.938	80.6%
Angry Bears	13907	75185	4.133	34.88	80.4%
Bargains of Power and Protection	12141	77005	4.921	36.498	72.37%
Blazing Renewal	56975	189607	4.879	34.469	72.25%
Bloodwrack Plague	41554	127160	4.606	35.138	75.48%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	28107	141865	4.093	33.521	77.24%
Cleansing Floods	62564	187602	3.18	30.977	78.11%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	30996	138231	3.747	33.535	80.17%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	22040	221901	3.48	29.58	73.09%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	10275	79966	4.674	32.862	72.85%

Difficulty

Difficulty	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
-3	32497	26.99	92.86%
-2	10252	25.92	89.79%
-1	23198	24.2	89.59%
0	790879	20.09	82.94%
1	165699	24.53	84.82%
2	111174	28.41	83.63%
3	100647	31.29	77.55%
4	121894	35.88	78.34%
5	88524	37.11	68.08%
6	144100	39.05	68.38%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.24 Win Model: -0.65

Number	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
1	1667911	30.99	72.58%
2	382819	32.1	75.28%
3	100438	34.37	78.78%
4	71830	38.97	80.55%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.43 Win Model: -0.1

Wave	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
2	40359	29.94	76.22%
3	18700	28.9	74.81%
4	9905	27.4	70.54%
5	4924	26.27	68.34%
6	2544	23.23	65.13%
7	1245	22.07	67.07%
8	723	22.76	73.58%
9	450	23.66	79.33%
10	336	24.55	83.63%
11	265	25.99	87.17%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)