Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 642736 45.6% 30.39 -0.65 73.22% -0.841 -0.759
B 660500 44.85% 31.49 -0.07 74.32% -0.727 -0.639
C 757739 44.52% 31.65 0.352 76.1% -0.565 -0.58
D 613365 44.83% 30.77 -0.658 74.39% -0.805 -0.722
E 250012 46.02% 35.52 0.59 74.77% -0.613 -0.577
F 316241 44.22% 34.05 0.008 75.78% -0.72 -0.667
G 284541 44.7% 33.47 -0.02 75.39% -0.688 -0.649
H 293014 43.05% 34.23 0.295 76.6% -0.689 -0.577
East 100088 45.33% 40.89 2.144 66.75% -0.632 -0.821
Northeast 58512 43.42% 41.92 1.892 67.76% -0.806 -0.967
Northwest 44922 42.27% 41.58 1.604 69.08% -0.519 -0.911
Southeast 15555 42.02% 38.13 0.066 71.57% -0.606 -1.227
Southwest 14249 45.1% 34.56 -2.826 67.19% -1.285 -1.389
West 84531 45.87% 39.34 1.152 65.89% -0.928 -0.958

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 229815 0.0% 19.18 -5.516 70.0% -1.663 -1.288
Not Using Events or Tokens 626806 45.33% 23.35 -2.923 73.39% -0.194 -0.275
Skip Initial Invader Actions 87115 14.25% 39.54 4.242 90.72% 0.788 0.275
Start of Game Growth 125383 17.18% 39.12 4.059 89.22% 0.483 0.409
Unlimited Undo 294004 37.2% 35.02 1.139 82.21% 0.275 0.777
Using Tokens but Not Events 298207 32.97% 30.37 -1.458 82.02% -0.039 -0.072

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 93390 31.1 -0.956 52.76% -1.184 -0.971
Aid From Lesser Spirits 76330 33.26 0.23 56.53% -0.987 -0.703
All Things Weaken 53109 31.2 -1.339 50.77% -1.29 -1.008
Attenuated Essence 253 32.68 -0.921 55.73% -0.927 -0.818
Back Against the Wall 73120 31.71 -0.073 53.15% -1.053 -0.847
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 289 29.01 -2.861 43.6% -1.427 -1.022
Burn Brightest Before the End 202 29.81 -1.974 50.0% -1.193 -0.831
Disintegrating Ecosystem 88449 28.26 -2.37 49.37% -1.334 -1.134
Downward Spiral 214010 25.62 -2.104 56.84% -1.144 -0.903
Erosion of Will 91863 29.92 -1.761 49.89% -1.333 -1.129
Intensifying Exploitation 317 29.38 -2.414 49.21% -1.186 -0.592
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20180 38.06 1.843 80.55% -0.042 -0.143
Memory Fades to Dust 215566 25.04 -2.478 52.89% -1.314 -1.024
Power Corrodes the Spirit 52244 31.04 -1.341 53.54% -1.144 -1.017
Promising Farmlands 89710 28.95 -2.199 49.79% -1.324 -1.163
Shattered Fragments of Power 249 33.19 -0.408 55.82% -0.974 -0.54
Slow Dissolution of Will 288 30.4 -2.12 45.83% -1.369 -0.757
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13400 38.33 2.326 84.34% 0.117 0.09
The Border of Life and Death 73 31.32 -1.08 68.49% -0.489 0.624
Thriving Communities 51587 30.35 -2.041 51.48% -1.353 -1.022
Thriving Crops 143 29.5 -2.407 56.64% -0.9 -0.907
Tipping Point 30954 28.15 0.0 49.05% 0.0 -1.167
Unnatural Proliferation 55436 32.28 -0.432 52.14% -1.161 -0.971
Untended Land Crumbles 52286 30.36 -1.755 51.58% -1.243 -1.08

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: 0.63
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2239366 31.28 72.32%
2 504868 32.28 75.14%
3 134540 34.63 78.78%
4 89579 38.84 80.78%
5 1431 35.88 84.84%
6 5173 39.13 82.87%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.24 Win Model: -0.0

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-10 13:29:50 (Pacific Time)