Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 1087171 42.67% 26.66 -0.786 63.62% -0.992 -1.008
B 1097970 42.27% 27.86 0.163 65.02% -0.865 -1.018
C 1255061 41.99% 28.17 0.252 66.86% -0.752 -0.816
D 1011975 42.38% 27.13 -0.58 64.91% -0.945 -1.057
E 525555 42.4% 30.79 0.956 65.03% -0.755 -0.853
F 580014 41.81% 29.96 0.082 66.4% -0.874 -0.948
G 514842 42.22% 29.69 0.055 66.34% -0.862 -0.942
H 531325 40.84% 30.51 0.631 67.48% -0.807 -0.815
East 160621 40.36% 35.54 0.507 58.93% -0.746 -0.937
Northeast 94096 38.66% 36.55 0.386 59.84% -0.893 -0.902
Northwest 72571 37.09% 35.58 0.548 60.1% -0.743 -0.799
Southeast 33039 35.05% 31.14 -1.466 57.79% -1.009 -1.597
Southwest 30807 36.99% 27.68 -2.894 52.95% -1.157 -1.646
West 136752 40.55% 33.8 -0.604 57.31% -0.983 -1.016

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 395843 0.0% 15.61 -3.929 56.9% -0.72 -0.778
Not Using Events or Tokens 1057231 42.36% 19.32 -3.31 60.81% -0.475 -0.255
Skip Initial Invader Actions 134381 14.08% 37.24 4.323 82.43% 0.805 -0.244
Start of Game Growth 199781 17.93% 36.59 4.396 80.41% 0.567 0.916
Unlimited Undo 482939 35.24% 31.14 0.107 71.44% -0.027 0.326
Using Events but Not Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Using Tokens but Not Events 511238 30.71% 27.23 -0.542 73.14% 0.027 -0.143

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 130844 30.12 0.462 50.84% -0.311 0.058
Aid From Lesser Spirits 104852 32.74 2.646 55.43% -0.013 0.516
All Things Weaken 89393 29.31 0.369 47.68% -0.474 0.131
Attenuated Essence 24966 28.95 1.366 48.09% -0.147 0.143
Back Against the Wall 101389 31.16 1.995 52.35% -0.129 0.392
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25069 27.64 -0.046 45.15% -0.32 0.088
Burn Brightest Before the End 17783 30.35 2.346 47.8% -0.177 0.176
Disintegrating Ecosystem 126305 27.07 -0.262 47.14% -0.38 -0.026
Downward Spiral 314805 23.8 -0.648 52.96% -0.193 0.248
Erosion of Will 129385 29.0 0.745 48.17% -0.338 -0.018
Intensifying Exploitation 25374 26.49 0.232 43.73% -0.353 0.049
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 34471 34.82 2.288 73.78% 0.363 0.569
Memory Fades to Dust 315939 23.33 -0.844 49.42% -0.329 0.096
Power Corrodes the Spirit 88486 29.06 0.518 50.16% -0.267 0.135
Promising Farmlands 127327 27.81 -0.051 47.57% -0.447 -0.058
Shattered Fragments of Power 17958 30.61 2.978 48.0% 0.0 0.264
Slow Dissolution of Will 24795 26.99 0.432 40.78% -0.411 -0.04
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22689 35.32 2.909 77.68% 0.559 0.729
The Border of Life and Death 6574 30.64 1.197 63.04% 0.245 0.438
Thriving Communities 87967 28.3 0.353 48.12% -0.278 0.104
Thriving Crops 11051 28.98 1.95 55.11% 0.095 0.26
Tipping Point 30972 28.14 0.0 49.02% 0.0 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 91758 30.9 1.794 49.94% -0.205 0.249
Untended Land Crumbles 88339 28.55 0.245 48.44% -0.299 0.045

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.15 Win Model: 0.54
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3790726 27.82 63.51%
2 866184 28.55 66.1%
3 241460 30.86 69.58%
4 144597 33.01 69.82%
5 6034 28.89 67.17%
6 20844 30.57 59.48%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.15 Win Model: 0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 14 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for the last 90 days.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)