Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 661866 45.37% 30.14 -0.622 72.58% -0.859 -0.781
B 679314 44.64% 31.24 -0.211 73.69% -0.779 -0.661
C 779711 44.34% 31.42 0.224 75.45% -0.652 -0.604
D 630410 44.65% 30.53 -0.62 73.77% -0.815 -0.754
E 263177 45.66% 35.07 0.614 73.83% -0.641 -0.607
F 328505 44.03% 33.73 0.195 75.01% -0.732 -0.692
G 295242 44.52% 33.16 0.08 74.64% -0.757 -0.671
H 304304 42.85% 33.94 0.609 75.9% -0.667 -0.6
East 102709 45.01% 40.52 1.603 66.15% -0.627 -0.855
Northeast 59993 43.12% 41.51 0.329 67.15% -0.897 -0.996
Northwest 46052 41.95% 41.17 0.547 68.46% -0.644 -0.934
Southeast 16331 41.36% 37.49 -0.355 70.21% -0.681 -1.246
Southwest 15034 44.34% 33.92 -2.379 65.78% -1.18 -1.388
West 86738 45.52% 38.98 0.627 65.28% -0.992 -0.98

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 236148 0.0% 18.95 -4.251 69.13% -0.963 -1.2
Not Using Events or Tokens 642612 45.16% 23.1 -3.027 72.66% -0.299 -0.271
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89355 14.28% 39.32 3.341 89.99% 0.534 0.159
Start of Game Growth 128617 17.19% 38.89 3.363 88.49% 0.354 0.389
Unlimited Undo 303613 37.08% 34.71 0.444 81.25% 0.033 0.73
Using Tokens but Not Events 308173 32.72% 30.13 -0.743 81.37% 0.062 -0.072

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 95172 31.03 1.05 52.64% -0.315 -0.887
Aid From Lesser Spirits 77679 33.23 2.445 56.45% -0.133 -0.617
All Things Weaken 54855 31.04 0.322 50.46% -0.522 -0.929
Attenuated Essence 1294 28.72 0.198 47.84% -0.361 -1.098
Back Against the Wall 74474 31.66 1.902 53.09% -0.25 -0.762
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1360 28.07 -0.073 42.94% -0.554 -0.972
Burn Brightest Before the End 1055 30.74 1.137 49.0% -0.434 -0.955
Disintegrating Ecosystem 90197 28.18 -0.76 49.21% -0.599 -1.053
Downward Spiral 218164 25.52 -0.8 56.61% -0.405 -0.824
Erosion of Will 93647 29.84 0.09 49.74% -0.536 -1.048
Intensifying Exploitation 1494 27.91 -0.328 45.11% -0.515 -1.113
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20838 37.82 2.598 79.99% 0.443 -0.089
Memory Fades to Dust 219684 24.94 -1.129 52.68% -0.534 -0.948
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53922 30.89 0.404 53.29% -0.352 -0.932
Promising Farmlands 91495 28.85 -0.947 49.56% -0.674 -1.087
Shattered Fragments of Power 1115 32.27 1.933 51.75% -0.302 -0.696
Slow Dissolution of Will 1397 28.26 -0.125 42.38% -0.647 -1.188
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13791 38.21 3.879 83.83% 0.666 0.155
The Border of Life and Death 379 29.43 0.86 61.48% 0.025 -0.414
Thriving Communities 53272 30.19 -0.303 51.14% -0.577 -0.943
Thriving Crops 641 29.14 0.192 54.13% -0.248 -0.749
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -3.595 49.05% 0.125 -1.085
Unnatural Proliferation 57197 32.16 1.422 51.92% -0.377 -0.889
Untended Land Crumbles 53972 30.23 0.073 51.37% -0.43 -1.0

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.07 Win Model: 0.62
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2309292 31.04 71.68%
2 521112 32.0 74.47%
3 139200 34.34 78.05%
4 91665 38.54 80.24%
5 1647 34.24 82.21%
6 6016 37.13 78.36%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.03 Win Model: 0.05

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-25 04:12:57 (Pacific Time)