Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 670810 45.28% 30.05 -0.54 72.31% -0.85 -0.794
B 688412 44.56% 31.14 -0.286 73.4% -0.813 -0.678
C 789985 44.26% 31.32 0.193 75.16% -0.684 -0.619
D 638642 44.57% 30.42 -0.632 73.49% -0.825 -0.773
E 269347 45.47% 34.88 0.711 73.42% -0.648 -0.628
F 334226 43.96% 33.6 0.227 74.69% -0.746 -0.71
G 300401 44.45% 33.04 0.121 74.32% -0.767 -0.689
H 309436 42.76% 33.82 0.648 75.59% -0.681 -0.617
East 103972 44.82% 40.38 1.315 65.87% -0.644 -0.879
Northeast 60818 42.91% 41.34 0.237 66.83% -0.819 -1.005
Northwest 46625 41.77% 40.98 -0.046 68.15% -0.731 -0.962
Southeast 16711 41.01% 37.25 -0.537 69.62% -0.73 -1.259
Southwest 15427 43.9% 33.66 -2.245 65.22% -1.093 -1.417
West 87781 45.34% 38.82 0.499 65.02% -0.953 -1.0

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 238508 0.0% 18.88 -3.897 68.84% -0.834 -1.158
Not Using Events or Tokens 650077 45.06% 23.01 -2.943 72.32% -0.33 -0.273
Skip Initial Invader Actions 90493 14.28% 39.24 3.178 89.71% 0.586 0.134
Start of Game Growth 130308 17.17% 38.81 2.966 88.2% 0.271 0.372
Unlimited Undo 308183 37.01% 34.59 0.457 80.87% 0.007 0.716
Using Tokens but Not Events 312756 32.62% 30.04 -0.561 81.09% 0.07 -0.083

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 96038 31.0 1.311 52.55% -0.211 -0.852
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78306 33.21 2.971 56.43% 0.032 -0.58
All Things Weaken 55641 30.97 0.57 50.3% -0.412 -0.896
Attenuated Essence 1856 28.6 1.113 47.52% -0.153 -1.125
Back Against the Wall 75156 31.63 2.126 53.06% -0.108 -0.728
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1906 28.31 0.902 43.49% -0.338 -0.98
Burn Brightest Before the End 1405 30.81 2.052 48.47% -0.237 -0.968
Disintegrating Ecosystem 91020 28.15 -0.535 49.15% -0.471 -1.016
Downward Spiral 220195 25.48 -0.574 56.48% -0.286 -0.787
Erosion of Will 94469 29.82 0.652 49.7% -0.348 -1.013
Intensifying Exploitation 1995 27.23 0.308 43.96% -0.346 -1.086
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21161 37.7 2.638 79.79% 0.528 -0.061
Memory Fades to Dust 221710 24.89 -0.913 52.57% -0.417 -0.914
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54704 30.83 0.704 53.14% -0.259 -0.894
Promising Farmlands 92337 28.82 -0.516 49.49% -0.519 -1.05
Shattered Fragments of Power 1514 32.09 2.769 50.92% -0.109 -0.777
Slow Dissolution of Will 1864 27.85 0.63 41.09% -0.473 -1.216
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13983 38.12 3.45 83.56% 0.617 0.183
The Border of Life and Death 536 30.32 2.148 63.25% 0.303 -0.51
Thriving Communities 54099 30.14 0.117 51.05% -0.4 -0.908
Thriving Crops 881 29.99 1.496 55.16% 0.028 -0.667
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -2.798 49.05% 0.162 -1.049
Unnatural Proliferation 58026 32.12 1.796 51.82% -0.237 -0.851
Untended Land Crumbles 54734 30.16 0.354 51.25% -0.301 -0.967

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.08 Win Model: 0.61
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2340778 30.95 71.41%
2 529063 31.87 74.16%
3 141604 34.21 77.72%
4 92707 38.4 79.98%
5 1763 33.39 80.32%
6 6455 36.63 76.87%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.03 Win Model: 0.07

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)