Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A 470708 45.47% 30.09 -0.66 73.37% 1.105
B 485846 44.72% 31.17 -0.156 74.53% 1.201
C 551735 44.52% 31.32 0.297 76.33% 1.433
D 454789 44.74% 30.54 -0.361 74.67% 1.194
E 134569 46.6% 35.47 0.838 75.01% 1.308
F 202585 43.67% 34.05 0.415 76.32% 1.257
G 184475 44.35% 33.54 0.243 75.76% 1.25
H 190964 42.57% 34.32 0.517 77.04% 1.259
East 44629 43.04% 42.98 2.422 67.96% 0.976
Northeast 44546 44.1% 41.6 1.89 67.06% 0.931
Northwest 34526 42.48% 41.36 1.602 68.64% 0.996
Southeast 8827 42.68% 37.61 0.525 72.2% 1.032
Southwest 8232 47.04% 33.6 -1.984 66.14% 0.602
West 39839 44.08% 41.27 1.292 65.8% 0.722

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
No Blight Card 176037 0.0% 19.32 -4.524 70.46% -2.056
Not Using Events or Tokens 479004 45.98% 23.39 -2.915 73.45% -0.216
Skip Initial Invader Actions 66135 14.03% 39.2 2.995 90.87% 0.694
Start of Game Growth 92360 16.34% 38.41 2.521 89.66% 0.465
Unlimited Undo 210005 36.62% 34.65 1.314 82.37% 0.42
Using Tokens but Not Events 212361 33.69% 30.16 -1.019 82.21% 0.051

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land 67130 30.73 -2.253 52.64% -2.074
Aid From Lesser Spirits 54617 32.77 -1.247 56.28% -1.92
All Things Weaken 29284 30.79 -2.345 50.75% -2.161
Back Against the Wall 52131 31.19 -2.001 52.77% -2.095
Disintegrating Ecosystem 63409 27.88 -3.691 49.24% -2.225
Downward Spiral 162044 25.36 -3.404 57.12% -2.021
Erosion of Will 65828 29.62 -2.798 49.93% -2.209
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11086 37.77 1.239 80.56% -0.695
Memory Fades to Dust 163087 24.74 -3.72 52.94% -2.218
Power Corrodes the Spirit 28777 30.78 -2.329 53.89% -2.019
Promising Farmlands 64646 28.53 -3.354 49.64% -2.215
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7300 38.15 1.506 85.01% -0.407
Thriving Communities 28383 30.12 -2.69 51.98% -2.095
Tipping Point 30940 28.15 -3.42 49.04% -2.226
Unnatural Proliferation 30521 31.85 -1.821 52.36% -2.087
Untended Land Crumbles 28686 30.11 -2.67 51.84% -2.107

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.24 Win Model: -1.12
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 1572646 30.94 72.6%
2 360793 32.06 75.27%
3 95044 34.32 78.83%
4 67856 38.85 80.33%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.42 Win Model: -0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-03-06 02:18:48 (Pacific Time)