Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 918098 43.39% 27.62 -0.91 66.14% -0.939 -1.085
B 930668 42.95% 28.82 -0.234 67.47% -0.861 -0.973
C 1065371 42.53% 29.09 0.303 69.37% -0.704 -0.865
D 859140 42.95% 28.11 -0.585 67.5% -0.861 -1.058
E 418394 43.05% 31.93 0.799 67.41% -0.681 -0.894
F 477584 42.32% 31.04 0.306 68.82% -0.785 -0.969
G 425307 42.74% 30.66 0.264 68.67% -0.776 -0.967
H 438769 41.21% 31.47 0.722 69.8% -0.731 -0.913
East 137240 41.71% 37.07 1.063 61.09% -0.854 -1.208
Northeast 80285 39.89% 38.06 1.683 62.03% -0.709 -1.217
Northwest 61637 38.82% 37.06 0.09 62.45% -0.856 -1.388
Southeast 26377 36.13% 32.61 -1.43 60.56% -0.848 -1.569
Southwest 24500 38.38% 29.09 -3.333 55.84% -1.395 -1.818
West 116361 42.18% 35.28 0.786 59.63% -0.888 -1.252

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 332879 0.0% 16.51 -3.44 60.17% -0.701 -0.725
Not Using Events or Tokens 896841 43.08% 20.33 -3.19 63.99% -0.487 -0.462
Skip Initial Invader Actions 116722 14.3% 37.94 4.889 84.73% 0.729 0.138
Start of Game Growth 171329 17.43% 37.21 4.024 82.89% 0.45 0.43
Unlimited Undo 413835 35.84% 32.12 0.524 74.03% 0.031 0.53
Using Tokens but Not Events 428218 31.07% 28.08 -0.069 75.67% 0.142 -0.191

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 116543 30.45 1.716 51.5% -0.068 -0.405
Aid From Lesser Spirits 93893 32.91 3.322 55.83% 0.14 -0.12
All Things Weaken 75217 29.85 1.49 48.55% -0.183 -0.464
Attenuated Essence 14612 29.19 1.839 48.38% -0.044 -0.456
Back Against the Wall 90574 31.33 2.851 52.64% 0.052 -0.266
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14849 28.04 1.103 45.29% -0.163 -0.586
Burn Brightest Before the End 10636 30.52 2.607 47.86% -0.03 -0.46
Disintegrating Ecosystem 111689 27.46 0.006 47.88% -0.307 -0.569
Downward Spiral 276606 24.31 -0.264 54.04% -0.074 -0.345
Erosion of Will 115080 29.29 1.431 48.77% -0.157 -0.563
Intensifying Exploitation 15086 26.86 0.474 44.09% -0.154 -0.608
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 28846 35.7 2.5 75.66% 0.464 0.253
Memory Fades to Dust 278001 23.81 -0.276 50.38% -0.211 -0.463
Power Corrodes the Spirit 74066 29.68 1.117 51.23% -0.094 -0.474
Promising Farmlands 112853 28.14 -0.032 48.25% -0.343 -0.622
Shattered Fragments of Power 10624 30.66 2.351 47.93% -0.082 -0.433
Slow Dissolution of Will 14592 26.92 0.302 40.27% -0.442 -0.769
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19058 36.24 2.464 79.46% 0.66 0.496
The Border of Life and Death 3932 30.6 2.342 63.25% 0.45 -0.065
Thriving Communities 73689 28.86 0.508 49.02% -0.205 -0.491
Thriving Crops 6646 28.95 1.367 54.83% 0.202 -0.342
Tipping Point 30964 28.14 -8.251 49.04% -0.113 -0.578
Unnatural Proliferation 77625 31.28 2.184 50.48% -0.077 -0.403
Untended Land Crumbles 74149 29.06 0.92 49.27% -0.197 -0.529

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: 0.66
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3192780 28.76 65.92%
2 727566 29.5 68.49%
3 199876 31.86 71.79%
4 123642 34.51 72.57%
5 4453 28.91 69.1%
6 14925 31.6 62.88%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.18 Win Model: 0.08

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-06-25 06:09:35 (Pacific Time)