Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 615717 45.7% 30.4 -0.462 73.39% -0.68 -0.706
B 633452 44.92% 31.5 0.076 74.48% -0.604 -0.597
C 726182 44.63% 31.65 0.279 76.26% -0.453 -0.533
D 588647 44.92% 30.8 -0.459 74.57% -0.699 -0.67
E 231098 46.31% 35.61 0.863 74.94% -0.489 -0.529
F 298419 44.25% 34.12 0.208 76.04% -0.649 -0.609
G 268942 44.77% 33.52 -0.168 75.59% -0.647 -0.599
H 277168 43.15% 34.28 0.145 76.8% -0.628 -0.523
East 96333 45.59% 40.88 2.533 66.87% -0.628 -0.771
Northeast 56417 43.74% 41.89 2.501 67.82% -0.461 -0.939
Northwest 43149 42.46% 41.54 0.832 69.08% -0.731 -0.891
Southeast 14407 42.49% 38.01 -0.164 72.08% -0.368 -1.203
Southwest 13042 45.49% 34.54 -2.06 67.97% -0.865 -1.392
West 81005 46.04% 39.33 1.535 66.02% -0.868 -0.92

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 221501 0.0% 19.29 -5.111 70.44% -2.146 -1.313
Not Using Events or Tokens 605341 45.39% 23.4 -2.892 73.62% -0.256 -0.275
Skip Initial Invader Actions 83841 14.24% 39.36 2.69 90.84% 0.487 0.193
Start of Game Growth 120118 17.1% 38.96 3.525 89.46% 0.593 0.408
Unlimited Undo 280413 37.11% 35.03 1.774 82.52% 0.639 0.8
Using Tokens but Not Events 283096 33.03% 30.44 -1.383 82.33% -0.061 -0.048

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 89787 31.04 -1.924 52.75% -1.956 -0.989
Aid From Lesser Spirits 73332 33.2 -0.405 56.54% -1.652 -0.719
All Things Weaken 49541 31.18 -2.111 50.89% -1.985 -1.021
Back Against the Wall 70198 31.61 -1.735 53.06% -1.963 -0.865
Disintegrating Ecosystem 85005 28.21 -3.384 49.38% -2.108 -1.152
Downward Spiral 206663 25.57 -3.392 56.88% -1.979 -0.925
Erosion of Will 88305 29.88 -2.723 49.89% -2.123 -1.149
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18829 38.07 1.12 80.65% -0.621 -0.158
Memory Fades to Dust 208014 25.0 -3.514 52.93% -2.094 -1.042
Power Corrodes the Spirit 48762 31.01 -2.259 53.59% -1.93 -1.032
Promising Farmlands 86185 28.9 -2.928 49.78% -2.076 -1.189
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12451 38.29 1.272 84.6% -0.413 0.086
Thriving Communities 48169 30.35 -2.739 51.71% -2.03 -1.029
Tipping Point 30954 28.15 -9.996 49.05% -0.791 -1.187
Unnatural Proliferation 51801 32.19 -1.715 52.17% -1.938 -0.988
Untended Land Crumbles 48749 30.33 -2.676 51.68% -1.99 -1.097

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.24 Win Model: 0.63
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2137114 31.27 72.48%
2 482144 32.31 75.34%
3 128168 34.6 78.95%
4 86176 38.98 80.96%
5 1103 36.18 85.86%
6 4120 39.65 84.2%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.37 Win Model: -0.01

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-04 02:37:50 (Pacific Time)