Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 593995 45.68% 30.31 -0.405 73.38% -0.797 -0.669
B 611463 44.93% 31.41 0.046 74.47% -0.744 -0.553
C 700174 44.63% 31.58 0.336 76.27% -0.568 -0.486
D 568976 44.93% 30.73 -0.468 74.58% -0.796 -0.618
E 215833 46.39% 35.51 0.594 74.85% -0.647 -0.494
F 283996 44.2% 34.05 0.117 76.08% -0.724 -0.565
G 256457 44.72% 33.47 -0.06 75.63% -0.732 -0.553
H 264105 43.09% 34.23 0.15 76.84% -0.712 -0.474
East 93322 45.72% 40.82 2.833 66.62% -0.769 -0.718
Northeast 54740 43.97% 41.78 1.851 67.57% -0.86 -0.918
Northwest 41880 42.54% 41.5 0.427 68.98% -1.077 -0.846
Southeast 13374 42.53% 37.95 -0.205 71.68% -0.706 -1.186
Southwest 12212 45.9% 34.36 -1.668 67.67% -1.125 -1.37
West 78522 46.11% 39.3 2.179 65.92% -0.954 -0.871

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 215111 0.0% 19.3 -4.715 70.51% -2.129 -1.325
Not Using Events or Tokens 588211 45.42% 23.39 -2.664 73.66% -0.175 -0.287
Skip Initial Invader Actions 81052 14.24% 39.25 2.451 90.87% 0.142 0.199
Start of Game Growth 115894 17.04% 38.79 3.301 89.49% 0.76 0.433
Unlimited Undo 269910 36.99% 34.91 2.406 82.48% 0.604 0.803
Using Tokens but Not Events 271474 33.1% 30.4 -1.121 82.36% 0.157 -0.033

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 86408 30.94 -1.971 52.71% -1.903 -0.991
Aid From Lesser Spirits 70575 33.07 -0.843 56.43% -1.73 -0.721
All Things Weaken 46393 31.06 -2.076 50.77% -1.985 -1.029
Back Against the Wall 67589 31.52 -1.177 52.99% -1.817 -0.862
Disintegrating Ecosystem 81811 28.11 -3.264 49.33% -2.05 -1.155
Downward Spiral 200258 25.52 -3.387 56.93% -1.993 -0.918
Erosion of Will 84951 29.79 -2.58 49.85% -2.083 -1.147
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17675 37.97 1.371 80.62% -0.441 -0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 201554 24.95 -3.422 52.92% -2.084 -1.042
Power Corrodes the Spirit 45705 30.9 -2.349 53.59% -1.938 -1.029
Promising Farmlands 82993 28.8 -2.918 49.74% -2.046 -1.192
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11669 38.22 0.853 84.67% -0.425 0.088
Thriving Communities 45187 30.27 -2.619 51.73% -1.984 -1.017
Tipping Point 30953 28.15 7.669 49.05% 0.118 -1.181
Unnatural Proliferation 48484 32.08 -1.71 52.07% -1.964 -0.995
Untended Land Crumbles 45670 30.25 -2.48 51.63% -1.993 -1.097

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.23 Win Model: 0.65
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2052370 31.18 72.48%
2 464649 32.25 75.33%
3 122930 34.49 78.92%
4 83660 38.94 80.87%
5 864 35.57 86.46%
6 3240 38.94 84.72%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.32 Win Model: -0.02

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)