Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A 407274 45.4% 30.07 -0.634 73.23% 1.073
B 419439 44.68% 31.08 -0.155 74.38% 1.164
C 476121 44.59% 31.29 0.324 76.09% 1.397
D 394088 44.67% 30.49 -0.347 74.52% 1.158
E 95646 46.78% 35.42 0.817 74.64% 1.257
F 161563 43.49% 34.08 0.448 76.23% 1.226
G 148977 44.27% 33.56 0.277 75.51% 1.213
H 154473 42.46% 34.33 0.543 76.8% 1.221
East 39200 43.38% 42.6 2.37 67.27% 0.936
Northeast 38878 44.38% 41.44 1.834 66.16% 0.869
Northwest 30581 42.76% 41.09 1.569 67.84% 0.945
Southeast 6616 43.73% 37.33 0.53 71.72% 0.983
Southwest 5993 46.38% 33.3 -1.891 67.85% 0.625
West 35005 44.72% 40.69 1.13 64.77% 0.665

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
No Blight Card 151451 0.0% 19.36 -4.473 70.36% -2.039
Not Using Events or Tokens 410783 46.61% 23.28 -2.959 73.12% -0.22
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57149 14.13% 39.02 3.029 90.77% 0.706
Start of Game Growth 79083 16.53% 38.21 2.509 89.52% 0.459
Unlimited Undo 176961 36.55% 34.49 1.293 82.0% 0.402
Using Tokens but Not Events 180452 34.44% 29.97 -1.056 81.67% 0.046

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land 57608 30.67 -2.251 52.47% -2.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 46645 32.64 -1.278 56.05% -1.917
All Things Weaken 21173 30.72 -2.347 50.34% -2.16
Back Against the Wall 44467 31.08 -2.026 52.54% -2.092
Disintegrating Ecosystem 54293 27.77 -3.71 49.03% -2.221
Downward Spiral 141167 25.3 -3.395 56.93% -2.014
Erosion of Will 56300 29.47 -2.832 49.59% -2.211
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7942 37.68 1.222 79.83% -0.712
Memory Fades to Dust 141889 24.64 -3.728 52.64% -2.216
Power Corrodes the Spirit 20764 30.64 -2.352 53.52% -2.02
Promising Farmlands 55439 28.4 -3.382 49.33% -2.215
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5236 38.14 1.521 84.68% -0.417
Thriving Communities 20458 29.85 -2.762 51.52% -2.107
Tipping Point 30930 28.15 -3.405 49.04% -2.216
Unnatural Proliferation 21922 31.75 -1.833 52.03% -2.08
Untended Land Crumbles 20743 30.07 -2.648 51.75% -2.095

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.25 Win Model: -1.08
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 1320850 30.76 72.35%
2 307736 32.11 75.07%
3 80932 34.27 78.45%
4 57635 38.63 79.99%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.41 Win Model: -0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)