Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 674903 45.24% 30.0 -0.552 72.17% -0.833 -0.794
B 692577 44.52% 31.09 -0.324 73.26% -0.8 -0.68
C 794665 44.21% 31.27 0.207 75.04% -0.657 -0.617
D 642304 44.54% 30.38 -0.606 73.37% -0.794 -0.773
E 272177 45.39% 34.81 0.761 73.24% -0.628 -0.629
F 336855 43.93% 33.54 0.246 74.54% -0.713 -0.711
G 302739 44.42% 32.98 0.157 74.17% -0.738 -0.689
H 311775 42.73% 33.76 0.654 75.44% -0.659 -0.618
East 104646 44.75% 40.31 1.365 65.74% -0.608 -0.886
Northeast 61200 42.83% 41.27 0.354 66.71% -0.749 -1.009
Northwest 46911 41.74% 40.9 -0.407 67.99% -0.816 -0.975
Southeast 16919 40.92% 37.16 -0.397 69.28% -0.729 -1.268
Southwest 15597 43.79% 33.56 -2.303 64.93% -1.065 -1.426
West 88334 45.28% 38.75 0.304 64.86% -0.949 -1.005

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 239696 0.0% 18.84 -3.832 68.69% -0.813 -1.139
Not Using Events or Tokens 653621 45.0% 22.97 -2.894 72.16% -0.337 -0.279
Skip Initial Invader Actions 91089 14.26% 39.22 3.304 89.6% 0.633 0.135
Start of Game Growth 131160 17.17% 38.78 2.886 88.08% 0.29 0.359
Unlimited Undo 310252 36.97% 34.55 0.449 80.71% -0.003 0.716
Using Tokens but Not Events 314723 32.58% 30.01 -0.518 80.98% 0.074 -0.082

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 96417 30.98 1.255 52.51% -0.199 -0.837
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78599 33.2 3.09 56.4% 0.066 -0.567
All Things Weaken 56052 30.94 0.642 50.24% -0.368 -0.885
Attenuated Essence 2084 28.75 1.504 47.65% -0.071 -1.088
Back Against the Wall 75426 31.63 2.189 53.05% -0.069 -0.712
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2125 28.04 1.128 43.58% -0.257 -0.975
Burn Brightest Before the End 1591 30.87 2.425 47.89% -0.175 -0.979
Disintegrating Ecosystem 91406 28.13 -0.484 49.11% -0.439 -1.003
Downward Spiral 221143 25.46 -0.47 56.42% -0.246 -0.776
Erosion of Will 94848 29.81 0.766 49.67% -0.318 -0.999
Intensifying Exploitation 2211 27.34 0.647 44.1% -0.269 -1.038
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21313 37.66 2.619 79.67% 0.509 -0.049
Memory Fades to Dust 222634 24.88 -0.789 52.52% -0.364 -0.902
Power Corrodes the Spirit 55099 30.79 0.677 53.06% -0.236 -0.883
Promising Farmlands 92739 28.81 -0.375 49.47% -0.46 -1.036
Shattered Fragments of Power 1705 31.96 3.073 50.21% -0.055 -0.788
Slow Dissolution of Will 2074 27.78 0.918 40.69% -0.408 -1.219
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14067 38.09 3.526 83.47% 0.642 0.193
The Border of Life and Death 599 30.53 2.511 63.11% 0.387 -0.515
Thriving Communities 54483 30.11 0.196 50.97% -0.357 -0.894
Thriving Crops 986 30.14 1.905 55.07% 0.115 -0.677
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -2.47 49.05% 0.182 -1.035
Unnatural Proliferation 58419 32.1 1.994 51.77% -0.173 -0.838
Untended Land Crumbles 55111 30.14 0.525 51.19% -0.248 -0.955

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: 0.64
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2356020 30.9 71.28%
2 532589 31.82 74.01%
3 142653 34.16 77.57%
4 93125 38.34 79.89%
5 1800 33.24 79.72%
6 6621 36.51 76.35%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.07 Win Model: 0.08

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)