Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 1072766 42.74% 26.72 -0.671 63.79% -0.908 -1.013
B 1082791 42.35% 27.91 -0.132 65.18% -0.83 -1.014
C 1238796 42.06% 28.22 0.134 67.03% -0.752 -0.79
D 999033 42.44% 27.19 -0.666 65.08% -0.871 -1.079
E 516358 42.44% 30.84 0.79 65.16% -0.703 -0.885
F 571037 41.85% 30.02 -0.036 66.56% -0.812 -0.954
G 507088 42.26% 29.75 -0.084 66.5% -0.821 -0.937
H 523218 40.87% 30.56 0.388 67.63% -0.758 -0.834
East 158326 40.48% 35.68 0.147 59.12% -0.92 -1.007
Northeast 92670 38.78% 36.7 0.984 60.05% -0.724 -0.962
Northwest 71481 37.24% 35.71 0.028 60.31% -0.984 -0.71
Southeast 32389 35.22% 31.28 -0.64 58.09% -0.852 -1.622
Southwest 30245 37.23% 27.79 -2.602 53.18% -1.277 -1.634
West 134816 40.72% 33.92 1.024 57.49% -0.691 -1.041

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 390942 0.0% 15.67 -4.297 57.12% -0.909 -0.793
Not Using Events or Tokens 1044509 42.43% 19.39 -3.089 61.04% -0.388 -0.284
Skip Initial Invader Actions 132849 14.12% 37.25 3.676 82.54% 0.723 -0.052
Start of Game Growth 196912 17.84% 36.61 3.709 80.59% 0.488 0.821
Unlimited Undo 476416 35.27% 31.21 -0.275 71.66% -0.081 0.343
Using Events but Not Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Using Tokens but Not Events 503410 30.75% 27.28 -0.712 73.34% 0.044 -0.098

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 129579 30.15 1.774 50.9% -0.073 0.117
Aid From Lesser Spirits 103889 32.75 2.938 55.46% 0.047 0.579
All Things Weaken 88195 29.34 0.637 47.76% -0.369 0.138
Attenuated Essence 24066 28.94 1.853 48.08% -0.028 0.171
Back Against the Wall 100393 31.18 3.286 52.37% 0.081 0.436
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24201 27.69 0.713 45.17% -0.203 0.113
Burn Brightest Before the End 17147 30.32 2.706 47.74% -0.101 0.168
Disintegrating Ecosystem 125029 27.09 -0.13 47.17% -0.362 -0.028
Downward Spiral 311624 23.83 -0.516 53.04% -0.203 0.273
Erosion of Will 128165 29.01 0.915 48.2% -0.326 -0.027
Intensifying Exploitation 24468 26.46 0.438 43.72% -0.318 0.033
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33944 34.88 2.674 73.94% 0.519 0.555
Memory Fades to Dust 312861 23.36 -0.343 49.49% -0.276 0.1
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87190 29.09 0.653 50.22% -0.198 0.14
Promising Farmlands 126054 27.82 -0.045 47.62% -0.371 -0.037
Shattered Fragments of Power 17321 30.53 2.491 47.78% -0.192 0.294
Slow Dissolution of Will 23976 26.97 0.875 40.75% -0.376 -0.03
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22337 35.37 2.765 77.85% 0.583 0.762
The Border of Life and Death 6351 30.7 3.603 63.03% 0.66 0.47
Thriving Communities 86751 28.32 0.426 48.16% -0.221 0.091
Thriving Crops 10658 28.9 1.706 55.04% 0.107 0.335
Tipping Point 30972 28.14 -12.251 49.02% -0.573 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 90491 30.92 2.158 49.96% -0.097 0.267
Untended Land Crumbles 87119 28.57 0.595 48.49% -0.199 0.056

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.02 Win Model: 0.69
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3738026 27.87 63.66%
2 854285 28.61 66.25%
3 237923 30.92 69.76%
4 142614 33.12 70.04%
5 5921 28.99 67.47%
6 20400 30.55 59.61%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.5 Win Model: 0.14

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 14 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for the last 90 days.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-10-25 23:57:52 (Pacific Time)