Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 603023 45.68% 30.36 -0.436 73.39% -0.768 -0.673
B 620828 44.91% 31.47 0.092 74.49% -0.693 -0.563
C 711010 44.61% 31.63 0.363 76.27% -0.564 -0.495
D 577273 44.93% 30.77 -0.501 74.6% -0.768 -0.629
E 222132 46.36% 35.57 0.678 74.91% -0.599 -0.499
F 290060 44.23% 34.09 0.134 76.07% -0.71 -0.575
G 261762 44.74% 33.5 -0.134 75.61% -0.726 -0.563
H 269621 43.12% 34.27 0.139 76.85% -0.69 -0.482
East 94644 45.63% 40.88 3.006 66.73% -0.622 -0.723
Northeast 55518 43.81% 41.85 2.376 67.7% -0.681 -0.905
Northwest 42432 42.5% 41.51 0.026 69.01% -1.067 -0.857
Southeast 13795 42.4% 38.01 -0.43 71.74% -0.728 -1.176
Southwest 12591 45.67% 34.41 -2.025 67.82% -0.971 -1.375
West 79654 46.09% 39.31 1.845 65.95% -1.003 -0.868

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 217237 0.0% 19.3 -5.078 70.52% -2.011 -1.326
Not Using Events or Tokens 594785 45.39% 23.41 -2.687 73.67% -0.214 -0.279
Skip Initial Invader Actions 82217 14.27% 39.34 2.847 90.83% 0.093 0.19
Start of Game Growth 117685 17.05% 38.89 3.532 89.48% 0.708 0.432
Unlimited Undo 274611 37.05% 34.99 2.306 82.51% 0.7 0.806
Using Tokens but Not Events 276173 33.05% 30.41 -1.686 82.38% 0.045 -0.035

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 87878 31.0 -1.85 52.77% -1.831 -0.987
Aid From Lesser Spirits 71778 33.13 -0.645 56.47% -1.654 -0.725
All Things Weaken 47758 31.11 -2.232 50.81% -1.976 -1.027
Back Against the Wall 68683 31.56 -1.491 53.0% -1.859 -0.867
Disintegrating Ecosystem 83165 28.17 -3.197 49.37% -1.975 -1.154
Downward Spiral 202898 25.56 -3.241 56.95% -1.902 -0.92
Erosion of Will 86363 29.84 -2.606 49.85% -2.044 -1.15
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18140 38.02 1.158 80.61% -0.572 -0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 204260 24.99 -3.213 52.95% -1.979 -1.039
Power Corrodes the Spirit 47049 30.97 -2.29 53.6% -1.892 -1.032
Promising Farmlands 84310 28.86 -2.892 49.77% -2.039 -1.194
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12008 38.28 0.943 84.65% -0.441 0.09
Thriving Communities 46466 30.32 -2.682 51.69% -1.964 -1.025
Tipping Point 30954 28.15 2.846 49.05% -0.489 -1.184
Unnatural Proliferation 49839 32.15 -1.686 52.11% -1.906 -0.991
Untended Land Crumbles 46957 30.28 -2.938 51.66% -2.035 -1.101

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.26 Win Model: 0.76
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2087830 31.23 72.49%
2 472007 32.29 75.34%
3 125164 34.56 78.97%
4 84686 38.96 80.93%
5 975 35.82 86.05%
6 3633 39.16 84.61%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.45 Win Model: -0.07

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)