Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A 291687 45.32% 29.78 -0.611 72.82% 0.919
B 302897 44.6% 30.81 -0.134 74.04% 1.017
C 339536 44.54% 31.02 0.374 75.69% 1.252
D 284843 44.62% 30.24 -0.303 74.22% 1.013
E 25289 48.97% 33.62 0.277 72.73% 1.023
F 88222 42.72% 33.84 0.503 76.05% 1.076
G 83866 43.96% 33.35 0.337 74.97% 1.058
H 86181 42.0% 33.81 0.469 76.14% 1.041
East 29545 43.14% 42.77 2.665 66.33% 0.662
Northeast 28973 43.57% 41.85 2.252 65.7% 0.599
Northwest 23272 42.41% 41.35 1.837 67.23% 0.664
Southeast 2128 44.42% 37.0 0.914 68.75% 0.569
Southwest 1922 46.8% 32.98 -1.483 65.35% 0.331
West 26506 44.85% 40.56 1.239 63.34% 0.35

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
No Blight Card 105015 0.0% 19.26 -4.383 69.58% -2.041
Not Using Events or Tokens 287920 47.45% 23.11 -2.921 72.47% -0.217
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38399 13.93% 38.32 3.067 90.45% 0.799
Start of Game Growth 52684 15.88% 37.18 2.263 89.04% 0.397
Unlimited Undo 120760 36.6% 33.93 1.295 81.05% 0.375
Using Tokens but Not Events 125976 35.66% 29.74 -0.952 80.57% 0.039

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land 40495 30.22 -2.244 52.1% -2.055
Aid From Lesser Spirits 32508 32.16 -1.314 55.44% -1.915
All Things Weaken 6428 29.68 -2.425 49.41% -2.147
Back Against the Wall 30982 30.61 -2.054 51.94% -2.089
Disintegrating Ecosystem 38135 27.46 -3.649 48.76% -2.199
Downward Spiral 102938 25.04 -3.372 56.68% -2.006
Erosion of Will 39400 29.07 -2.803 49.13% -2.204
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2395 36.76 1.101 78.41% -0.74
Memory Fades to Dust 103396 24.36 -3.725 52.28% -2.211
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6320 29.99 -2.223 53.61% -1.956
Promising Farmlands 39352 27.92 -3.402 48.75% -2.213
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1550 37.3 1.417 83.23% -0.46
Thriving Communities 6249 28.58 -2.928 49.88% -2.124
Tipping Point 30835 28.16 -3.283 49.06% -2.187
Unnatural Proliferation 6697 30.67 -1.951 50.55% -2.098
Untended Land Crumbles 6267 28.83 -2.767 50.41% -2.107

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.29 Win Model: -0.89
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 868294 30.1 71.7%
2 211551 31.9 74.5%
3 54960 33.91 78.45%
4 39296 38.73 79.16%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.38 Win Model: -0.11

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-05-11 02:19:36 (Pacific Time)