Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 630554 45.69% 30.44 -0.488 73.4% -0.685 -0.726
B 648646 44.93% 31.54 -0.111 74.47% -0.659 -0.612
C 743877 44.6% 31.71 0.342 76.27% -0.436 -0.55
D 602452 44.91% 30.83 -0.516 74.58% -0.672 -0.686
E 241774 46.19% 35.66 0.826 74.98% -0.495 -0.546
F 308357 44.26% 34.15 0.041 76.03% -0.627 -0.629
G 277722 44.8% 33.55 -0.075 75.6% -0.555 -0.619
H 286121 43.15% 34.31 0.157 76.79% -0.618 -0.545
East 98507 45.46% 40.94 2.365 66.91% -0.555 -0.795
Northeast 57659 43.56% 41.99 2.579 67.91% -0.604 -0.95
Northwest 44164 42.32% 41.63 1.66 69.23% -0.474 -0.895
Southeast 15038 42.26% 38.2 0.204 72.09% -0.641 -1.195
Southwest 13645 45.33% 34.74 -1.826 68.07% -0.874 -1.39
West 82937 45.96% 39.4 1.623 66.1% -0.747 -0.938

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 225651 0.0% 19.28 -5.199 70.39% -2.205 -1.286
Not Using Events or Tokens 617417 45.39% 23.42 -2.827 73.6% -0.232 -0.277
Skip Initial Invader Actions 85663 14.24% 39.51 3.723 90.88% 1.128 0.257
Start of Game Growth 123097 17.15% 39.09 3.739 89.42% 0.437 0.407
Unlimited Undo 288280 37.23% 35.08 1.454 82.46% 0.502 0.791
Using Tokens but Not Events 291754 33.11% 30.44 -1.658 82.2% -0.152 -0.072

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 91986 31.08 -2.174 52.76% -1.992 -0.998
Aid From Lesser Spirits 75148 33.26 -0.863 56.55% -1.767 -0.728
All Things Weaken 51719 31.21 -2.346 50.79% -2.072 -1.031
Attenuated Essence 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Back Against the Wall 71973 31.68 -1.567 53.13% -1.934 -0.872
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Burn Brightest Before the End 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Disintegrating Ecosystem 87010 28.26 -3.36 49.42% -2.098 -1.157
Downward Spiral 211272 25.62 -3.121 56.88% -1.909 -0.928
Erosion of Will 90410 29.92 -2.667 49.93% -2.095 -1.154
Intensifying Exploitation 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19624 38.14 1.428 80.71% -0.527 -0.167
Memory Fades to Dust 212674 25.05 -3.475 52.93% -2.105 -1.046
Power Corrodes the Spirit 50831 31.06 -2.309 53.58% -1.928 -1.038
Promising Farmlands 88290 28.97 -2.8 49.86% -2.027 -1.188
Shattered Fragments of Power 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Slow Dissolution of Will 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13021 38.37 1.436 84.52% -0.506 0.066
The Border of Life and Death 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thriving Communities 50162 30.38 -2.896 51.63% -2.065 -1.04
Thriving Crops 0 nan 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tipping Point 30954 28.15 0.0 49.05% 0.0 -1.191
Unnatural Proliferation 54010 32.27 -1.537 52.2% -1.935 -0.994
Untended Land Crumbles 50912 30.38 -2.701 51.63% -2.032 -1.102

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.19 Win Model: 0.55
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2194474 31.33 72.48%
2 494731 32.35 75.35%
3 131762 34.68 78.96%
4 88136 38.96 80.97%
5 1277 36.74 86.3%
6 4676 39.94 84.5%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.28 Win Model: -0.0

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-27 02:54:44 (Pacific Time)