Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 939546 43.32% 27.44 -0.906 65.71% -0.974 -1.09
B 951265 42.89% 28.65 -0.266 67.07% -0.892 -0.974
C 1090356 42.48% 28.92 0.506 68.97% -0.692 -0.868
D 878657 42.89% 27.93 -0.559 67.08% -0.891 -1.067
E 431665 42.95% 31.7 0.759 66.99% -0.726 -0.898
F 490663 42.24% 30.83 0.147 68.4% -0.824 -0.978
G 436218 42.67% 30.49 0.47 68.32% -0.766 -0.969
H 450118 41.15% 31.29 0.562 69.42% -0.776 -0.917
East 140066 41.56% 36.84 1.241 60.8% -0.744 -1.213
Northeast 81913 39.76% 37.84 0.849 61.75% -0.844 -1.218
Northwest 62918 38.6% 36.86 0.986 62.18% -0.746 -1.391
Southeast 27200 36.05% 32.35 -1.042 60.15% -0.868 -1.573
Southwest 25304 38.15% 28.81 -2.938 55.38% -1.296 -1.826
West 118886 41.96% 35.06 0.444 59.32% -0.971 -1.259

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 343033 0.0% 16.33 -3.092 59.56% -0.648 -0.681
Not Using Events or Tokens 919246 43.02% 20.14 -2.968 63.43% -0.431 -0.472
Skip Initial Invader Actions 118799 14.29% 37.83 4.684 84.45% 0.798 0.173
Start of Game Growth 174692 17.45% 37.1 3.745 82.54% 0.413 0.433
Unlimited Undo 422280 35.76% 31.95 0.521 73.62% 0.046 0.519
Using Tokens but Not Events 437990 30.98% 27.92 -0.6 75.27% 0.073 -0.215

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 118348 30.37 1.661 51.41% -0.042 -0.385
Aid From Lesser Spirits 95305 32.86 3.37 55.73% 0.086 -0.096
All Things Weaken 76982 29.75 1.341 48.41% -0.21 -0.437
Attenuated Essence 15831 29.11 2.065 48.27% 0.029 -0.424
Back Against the Wall 91923 31.27 2.374 52.55% -0.035 -0.242
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16080 27.9 1.207 45.14% -0.15 -0.563
Burn Brightest Before the End 11507 30.42 2.779 47.74% -0.007 -0.429
Disintegrating Ecosystem 113572 27.4 0.373 47.82% -0.178 -0.545
Downward Spiral 281642 24.2 -0.18 53.85% -0.064 -0.32
Erosion of Will 116892 29.23 1.452 48.7% -0.126 -0.539
Intensifying Exploitation 16323 26.7 0.714 44.01% -0.119 -0.578
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 29582 35.54 2.941 75.42% 0.607 0.267
Memory Fades to Dust 282917 23.71 -0.303 50.22% -0.209 -0.439
Power Corrodes the Spirit 75894 29.54 0.969 51.05% -0.123 -0.454
Promising Farmlands 114642 28.07 0.442 48.18% -0.196 -0.598
Shattered Fragments of Power 11493 30.62 2.715 48.01% 0.004 -0.4
Slow Dissolution of Will 15833 26.9 0.962 40.38% -0.318 -0.735
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19506 36.06 2.364 79.21% 0.706 0.511
The Border of Life and Death 4243 30.51 2.576 63.07% 0.464 -0.044
Thriving Communities 75513 28.77 0.936 48.94% -0.138 -0.463
Thriving Crops 7193 28.88 1.808 55.04% 0.276 -0.329
Tipping Point 30965 28.14 -9.285 49.04% -0.514 -0.553
Unnatural Proliferation 79456 31.18 2.245 50.37% -0.075 -0.378
Untended Land Crumbles 75992 28.94 0.927 49.11% -0.16 -0.506

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.12 Win Model: 0.66
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3269421 28.57 65.52%
2 745228 29.34 68.12%
3 204960 31.66 71.38%
4 125921 34.3 72.21%
5 4654 28.88 68.63%
6 15686 31.36 62.25%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.26 Win Model: 0.12

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-07-09 16:35:15 (Pacific Time)