Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 672810 45.27% 30.02 -0.561 72.24% -0.862 -0.799
B 690492 44.54% 31.11 -0.298 73.33% -0.827 -0.684
C 792274 44.24% 31.3 0.206 75.1% -0.688 -0.622
D 640315 44.56% 30.4 -0.605 73.44% -0.828 -0.777
E 270711 45.43% 34.85 0.734 73.33% -0.658 -0.633
F 335513 43.95% 33.57 0.207 74.62% -0.752 -0.715
G 301586 44.42% 33.01 0.13 74.25% -0.77 -0.694
H 310598 42.75% 33.79 0.635 75.52% -0.689 -0.622
East 104332 44.78% 40.33 1.269 65.79% -0.647 -0.887
Northeast 61014 42.87% 41.29 0.125 66.74% -0.834 -1.013
Northwest 46773 41.77% 40.93 -0.198 68.04% -0.792 -0.977
Southeast 16825 40.94% 37.18 -0.5 69.4% -0.764 -1.262
Southwest 15508 43.86% 33.6 -2.248 65.08% -1.085 -1.425
West 88056 45.32% 38.78 0.416 64.93% -0.955 -1.006

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 239128 0.0% 18.86 -3.865 68.76% -0.826 -1.143
Not Using Events or Tokens 651824 45.04% 22.99 -2.92 72.24% -0.337 -0.281
Skip Initial Invader Actions 90799 14.26% 39.23 3.24 89.64% 0.607 0.133
Start of Game Growth 130742 17.17% 38.79 2.912 88.13% 0.278 0.364
Unlimited Undo 309230 36.99% 34.57 0.464 80.78% -0.0 0.715
Using Tokens but Not Events 313684 32.6% 30.02 -0.55 81.04% 0.07 -0.083

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 96213 30.99 1.363 52.54% -0.19 -0.844
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78465 33.21 3.085 56.42% 0.064 -0.573
All Things Weaken 55842 30.95 0.599 50.27% -0.387 -0.89
Attenuated Essence 1973 28.68 1.353 47.49% -0.106 -1.095
Back Against the Wall 75281 31.63 2.24 53.06% -0.063 -0.718
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2010 28.26 1.091 43.88% -0.283 -0.964
Burn Brightest Before the End 1498 30.96 2.328 48.33% -0.191 -0.954
Disintegrating Ecosystem 91200 28.14 -0.444 49.13% -0.432 -1.008
Downward Spiral 220702 25.47 -0.493 56.45% -0.26 -0.779
Erosion of Will 94666 29.82 0.701 49.69% -0.329 -1.003
Intensifying Exploitation 2101 27.37 0.575 43.98% -0.298 -1.071
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21222 37.67 2.442 79.72% 0.498 -0.055
Memory Fades to Dust 222182 24.89 -0.858 52.54% -0.394 -0.907
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54892 30.81 0.689 53.1% -0.245 -0.888
Promising Farmlands 92533 28.82 -0.375 49.48% -0.487 -1.041
Shattered Fragments of Power 1608 32.02 2.953 50.44% -0.077 -0.772
Slow Dissolution of Will 1965 27.77 0.788 40.97% -0.434 -1.225
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14022 38.1 3.551 83.51% 0.632 0.189
The Border of Life and Death 576 30.22 2.287 63.37% 0.361 -0.509
Thriving Communities 54277 30.13 0.219 51.02% -0.378 -0.9
Thriving Crops 926 29.85 1.639 54.75% 0.056 -0.667
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -2.611 49.05% 0.172 -1.04
Unnatural Proliferation 58206 32.11 1.951 51.8% -0.2 -0.843
Untended Land Crumbles 54907 30.16 0.47 51.21% -0.27 -0.959

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.08 Win Model: 0.63
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2348405 30.92 71.35%
2 530737 31.85 74.09%
3 142075 34.2 77.66%
4 92909 38.37 79.92%
5 1785 33.28 80.0%
6 6545 36.5 76.47%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.05 Win Model: 0.07

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)