Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 660784 45.38% 30.15 -0.658 72.61% -0.861 -0.78
B 678194 44.66% 31.26 -0.183 73.73% -0.771 -0.661
C 778463 44.35% 31.43 0.254 75.48% -0.642 -0.604
D 629444 44.66% 30.54 -0.623 73.79% -0.815 -0.755
E 262422 45.66% 35.09 0.599 73.89% -0.638 -0.606
F 327742 44.04% 33.75 0.207 75.05% -0.73 -0.692
G 294552 44.52% 33.18 0.081 74.69% -0.748 -0.671
H 303604 42.87% 33.96 0.599 75.94% -0.668 -0.599
East 102585 45.02% 40.54 1.691 66.18% -0.614 -0.854
Northeast 59911 43.14% 41.53 0.391 67.18% -0.891 -0.993
Northwest 45989 41.97% 41.18 0.58 68.49% -0.624 -0.932
Southeast 16292 41.38% 37.52 -0.395 70.27% -0.688 -1.247
Southwest 14998 44.4% 33.96 -2.407 65.84% -1.17 -1.388
West 86622 45.53% 39.0 0.608 65.31% -1.016 -0.98

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 235860 0.0% 18.96 -4.276 69.17% -0.975 -1.206
Not Using Events or Tokens 641779 45.17% 23.12 -3.03 72.69% -0.299 -0.271
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89211 14.28% 39.33 3.331 90.03% 0.516 0.158
Start of Game Growth 128402 17.19% 38.91 3.46 88.54% 0.379 0.391
Unlimited Undo 303006 37.09% 34.73 0.531 81.32% 0.051 0.733
Using Tokens but Not Events 307601 32.73% 30.14 -0.756 81.41% 0.062 -0.07

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 95074 31.04 0.955 52.66% -0.35 -0.892
Aid From Lesser Spirits 77609 33.22 2.297 56.45% -0.175 -0.622
All Things Weaken 54762 31.05 0.282 50.49% -0.537 -0.933
Attenuated Essence 1228 29.01 0.199 48.45% -0.373 -1.073
Back Against the Wall 74391 31.65 1.79 53.07% -0.283 -0.767
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1292 28.18 -0.179 43.19% -0.583 -0.971
Burn Brightest Before the End 1002 30.66 0.967 49.0% -0.468 -0.969
Disintegrating Ecosystem 90077 28.18 -0.843 49.22% -0.627 -1.057
Downward Spiral 217955 25.52 -0.848 56.62% -0.428 -0.828
Erosion of Will 93537 29.84 -0.005 49.75% -0.574 -1.052
Intensifying Exploitation 1432 27.78 -0.533 44.9% -0.564 -1.132
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20796 37.83 2.62 80.03% 0.449 -0.09
Memory Fades to Dust 219446 24.94 -1.184 52.69% -0.563 -0.952
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53824 30.9 0.333 53.31% -0.376 -0.937
Promising Farmlands 91374 28.86 -0.99 49.58% -0.692 -1.091
Shattered Fragments of Power 1068 32.39 1.862 52.15% -0.319 -0.669
Slow Dissolution of Will 1333 28.24 -0.284 42.01% -0.704 -1.206
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13762 38.22 3.78 83.85% 0.668 0.152
The Border of Life and Death 361 29.26 0.614 61.22% -0.03 -0.465
Thriving Communities 53162 30.19 -0.426 51.15% -0.611 -0.949
Thriving Crops 610 29.08 0.028 53.77% -0.295 -0.783
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -3.72 49.05% 0.122 -1.09
Unnatural Proliferation 57087 32.17 1.332 51.93% -0.412 -0.895
Untended Land Crumbles 53874 30.24 0.032 51.39% -0.452 -1.003

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.08 Win Model: 0.62
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2305251 31.05 71.72%
2 520158 32.02 74.51%
3 138905 34.36 78.1%
4 91545 38.55 80.28%
5 1636 34.25 82.09%
6 5968 37.22 78.6%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.04 Win Model: 0.04

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-24 03:32:57 (Pacific Time)