Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 958853 43.22% 27.31 -0.771 65.39% -0.987 -1.097
B 970234 42.81% 28.52 -0.248 66.77% -0.891 -0.982
C 1112259 42.42% 28.8 0.591 68.66% -0.705 -0.873
D 896396 42.81% 27.8 -0.596 66.75% -0.927 -1.078
E 444102 42.85% 31.54 0.699 66.67% -0.77 -0.907
F 502419 42.19% 30.69 0.1 68.08% -0.857 -0.987
G 446505 42.59% 30.35 0.291 68.01% -0.816 -0.978
H 460783 41.09% 31.14 0.361 69.11% -0.82 -0.927
East 142672 41.42% 36.67 1.286 60.54% -0.814 -1.227
Northeast 83459 39.67% 37.67 1.369 61.48% -0.728 -1.225
Northwest 64199 38.43% 36.65 0.631 61.81% -0.843 -1.404
Southeast 27933 36.0% 32.18 -0.675 59.82% -0.824 -1.58
Southwest 25997 38.1% 28.67 -2.78 55.05% -1.251 -1.837
West 121142 41.78% 34.88 0.504 59.04% -0.947 -1.267

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 350212 0.0% 16.21 -3.325 59.13% -0.702 -0.677
Not Using Events or Tokens 937348 42.94% 20.01 -2.871 63.04% -0.372 -0.47
Skip Initial Invader Actions 120482 14.28% 37.77 4.08 84.23% 0.646 0.164
Start of Game Growth 177698 17.5% 37.02 3.904 82.27% 0.519 0.451
Unlimited Undo 429603 35.7% 31.83 0.642 73.32% 0.092 0.523
Using Tokens but Not Events 448083 30.95% 27.77 -0.902 74.93% 0.006 -0.212

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 119998 30.33 1.295 51.3% -0.177 -0.372
Aid From Lesser Spirits 96541 32.84 3.225 55.69% 0.079 -0.08
All Things Weaken 78708 29.67 1.016 48.29% -0.279 -0.424
Attenuated Essence 16971 29.02 1.957 48.24% -0.009 -0.407
Back Against the Wall 93186 31.25 2.5 52.52% -0.041 -0.227
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17236 27.81 1.086 45.1% -0.198 -0.539
Burn Brightest Before the End 12298 30.51 2.953 47.89% -0.047 -0.393
Disintegrating Ecosystem 115263 27.35 0.094 47.72% -0.272 -0.528
Downward Spiral 286070 24.14 -0.271 53.75% -0.097 -0.304
Erosion of Will 118524 29.18 0.887 48.6% -0.257 -0.522
Intensifying Exploitation 17473 26.6 0.546 43.88% -0.236 -0.566
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 30206 35.44 3.035 75.21% 0.615 0.284
Memory Fades to Dust 287263 23.65 -0.374 50.11% -0.233 -0.42
Power Corrodes the Spirit 77574 29.45 0.543 50.91% -0.225 -0.442
Promising Farmlands 116297 28.03 0.488 48.11% -0.233 -0.58
Shattered Fragments of Power 12303 30.52 2.634 47.89% -0.1 -0.38
Slow Dissolution of Will 16978 26.84 1.065 40.33% -0.344 -0.718
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19877 35.94 2.593 79.02% 0.69 0.515
The Border of Life and Death 4548 30.73 3.465 63.43% 0.548 0.001
Thriving Communities 77173 28.68 0.602 48.8% -0.229 -0.448
Thriving Crops 7683 28.88 1.991 55.21% 0.279 -0.311
Tipping Point 30965 28.14 -12.978 49.04% -0.637 -0.533
Unnatural Proliferation 81164 31.08 1.688 50.23% -0.185 -0.364
Untended Land Crumbles 77727 28.87 0.688 48.99% -0.238 -0.488

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.13 Win Model: 0.76
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3338485 28.44 65.2%
2 760735 29.21 67.83%
3 209835 31.53 71.09%
4 128213 34.12 71.9%
5 4848 28.87 68.56%
6 16451 31.23 61.7%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.25 Win Model: 0.11

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-07-24 03:18:25 (Pacific Time)