Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 977419 43.16% 27.18 -0.784 65.07% -1.005 -1.103
B 988483 42.74% 28.38 -0.343 66.47% -0.92 -0.988
C 1133658 42.36% 28.68 0.629 68.35% -0.735 -0.877
D 913058 42.76% 27.66 -0.718 66.41% -0.978 -1.088
E 455169 42.8% 31.41 0.705 66.37% -0.82 -0.914
F 513237 42.15% 30.56 0.151 67.81% -0.874 -0.993
G 455814 42.55% 30.25 0.339 67.77% -0.809 -0.984
H 470327 41.07% 31.03 0.451 68.87% -0.815 -0.934
East 144964 41.27% 36.51 1.047 60.3% -0.903 -1.248
Northeast 84817 39.55% 37.51 1.169 61.22% -0.808 -1.244
Northwest 65345 38.28% 36.49 0.561 61.54% -0.9 -1.397
Southeast 28568 35.85% 32.05 -0.569 59.57% -0.851 -1.601
Southwest 26697 38.07% 28.49 -2.772 54.61% -1.376 -1.843
West 123234 41.63% 34.72 0.582 58.75% -0.955 -1.281

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 357669 0.0% 16.09 -3.44 58.71% -0.708 -0.664
Not Using Events or Tokens 956773 42.85% 19.87 -2.946 62.62% -0.368 -0.471
Skip Initial Invader Actions 122147 14.27% 37.7 3.911 84.01% 0.585 0.168
Start of Game Growth 180415 17.56% 36.95 3.676 82.01% 0.514 0.457
Unlimited Undo 436838 35.65% 31.72 0.746 73.03% 0.109 0.517
Using Tokens but Not Events 456647 30.93% 27.69 -0.612 74.65% 0.026 -0.206

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 121619 30.28 1.128 51.2% -0.249 -0.358
Aid From Lesser Spirits 97717 32.81 3.275 55.66% 0.118 -0.064
All Things Weaken 80274 29.59 0.762 48.17% -0.337 -0.414
Attenuated Essence 18078 28.97 1.82 48.2% -0.027 -0.392
Back Against the Wall 94270 31.23 2.742 52.48% -0.001 -0.211
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18318 27.76 1.004 45.09% -0.217 -0.519
Burn Brightest Before the End 13079 30.51 3.115 48.06% 0.019 -0.382
Disintegrating Ecosystem 116845 27.29 -0.38 47.62% -0.393 -0.516
Downward Spiral 290468 24.06 -0.32 53.61% -0.108 -0.29
Erosion of Will 120108 29.13 0.638 48.5% -0.352 -0.509
Intensifying Exploitation 18545 26.56 0.524 43.84% -0.246 -0.562
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 30844 35.3 2.678 74.94% 0.524 0.284
Memory Fades to Dust 291654 23.58 -0.445 49.98% -0.247 -0.409
Power Corrodes the Spirit 79118 29.38 0.608 50.76% -0.222 -0.431
Promising Farmlands 117879 28.0 0.542 48.03% -0.283 -0.565
Shattered Fragments of Power 13086 30.58 2.807 48.01% -0.077 -0.349
Slow Dissolution of Will 18031 26.82 0.829 40.4% -0.397 -0.704
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20255 35.84 2.893 78.86% 0.695 0.52
The Border of Life and Death 4814 30.64 3.411 63.36% 0.601 0.013
Thriving Communities 78707 28.6 0.092 48.66% -0.357 -0.436
Thriving Crops 8116 28.86 1.775 55.19% 0.196 -0.283
Tipping Point 30966 28.14 -11.935 49.03% -0.434 -0.516
Unnatural Proliferation 82716 31.04 1.763 50.19% -0.162 -0.347
Untended Land Crumbles 79196 28.81 0.696 48.92% -0.231 -0.477

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.13 Win Model: 0.74
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 3402738 28.32 64.91%
2 775683 29.09 67.55%
3 214460 31.41 70.87%
4 130428 33.91 71.5%
5 5020 28.82 68.05%
6 17044 31.13 61.48%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.2 Win Model: 0.11

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)