Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 805724 44.17% 28.49 -0.872 68.38% -0.905 -1.0
B 821403 43.68% 29.65 -0.248 69.66% -0.828 -0.881
C 940734 43.28% 29.89 0.281 71.58% -0.68 -0.77
D 758865 43.61% 28.96 -0.536 69.78% -0.853 -0.957
E 349121 44.02% 33.02 0.864 69.57% -0.701 -0.799
F 410451 43.05% 31.97 0.231 71.03% -0.781 -0.883
G 367816 43.51% 31.57 0.204 70.84% -0.772 -0.863
H 379201 41.85% 32.34 0.538 71.96% -0.768 -0.815
East 121220 43.09% 38.35 0.713 62.96% -0.862 -1.095
Northeast 70986 41.22% 39.3 1.251 63.89% -0.747 -1.148
Northwest 54470 40.25% 38.55 -0.347 64.56% -0.833 -1.284
Southeast 21595 38.18% 34.2 -0.588 63.69% -0.776 -1.457
Southwest 20211 40.47% 30.57 -3.126 58.94% -1.319 -1.711
West 102681 43.53% 36.62 0.024 61.65% -1.006 -1.16

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 292944 0.0% 17.29 -3.992 63.16% -0.831 -0.905
Not Using Events or Tokens 790368 43.84% 21.25 -3.337 66.98% -0.441 -0.405
Skip Initial Invader Actions 105039 14.38% 38.23 4.606 86.62% 0.562 0.136
Start of Game Growth 152080 17.43% 37.68 3.525 85.02% 0.539 0.416
Unlimited Undo 364120 36.39% 33.07 0.042 76.68% -0.041 0.56
Using Tokens but Not Events 372375 31.73% 28.77 -0.739 77.81% 0.023 -0.137

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 107446 30.65 1.816 51.88% -0.139 -0.55
Aid From Lesser Spirits 87173 33.01 3.477 55.98% 0.059 -0.271
All Things Weaken 66355 30.27 0.717 49.19% -0.355 -0.61
Attenuated Essence 8373 29.5 2.006 47.89% -0.111 -0.668
Back Against the Wall 83882 31.4 2.465 52.71% -0.076 -0.426
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8421 28.47 1.388 45.11% -0.211 -0.738
Burn Brightest Before the End 6258 30.83 2.585 47.92% -0.121 -0.645
Disintegrating Ecosystem 102572 27.72 -0.283 48.31% -0.369 -0.717
Downward Spiral 251537 24.72 -0.556 54.93% -0.197 -0.484
Erosion of Will 105952 29.47 1.184 49.09% -0.267 -0.717
Intensifying Exploitation 8662 27.44 0.866 43.82% -0.27 -0.767
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25333 36.54 3.021 77.37% 0.511 0.173
Memory Fades to Dust 253157 24.17 -0.642 51.16% -0.312 -0.613
Power Corrodes the Spirit 65258 30.1 0.574 51.9% -0.295 -0.61
Promising Farmlands 103680 28.42 0.036 48.74% -0.336 -0.756
Shattered Fragments of Power 6202 31.25 2.61 48.32% -0.109 -0.595
Slow Dissolution of Will 8373 27.33 0.76 40.54% -0.4 -0.911
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16743 37.07 2.934 81.09% 0.613 0.407
The Border of Life and Death 2300 30.81 2.344 62.74% 0.292 -0.204
Thriving Communities 64814 29.34 0.276 49.78% -0.333 -0.62
Thriving Crops 3860 29.71 1.82 54.82% 0.087 -0.435
Tipping Point 30959 28.15 -10.772 49.04% -0.515 -0.729
Unnatural Proliferation 68751 31.62 1.934 51.02% -0.148 -0.547
Untended Land Crumbles 65405 29.48 0.5 50.02% -0.307 -0.68

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.05 Win Model: 0.76
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2804965 29.56 67.95%
2 636539 30.34 70.58%
3 173282 32.76 74.06%
4 108855 36.05 75.61%
5 3269 29.71 72.07%
6 10916 32.79 67.3%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.11 Win Model: 0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)