Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 772916 44.43% 28.78 -0.911 69.17% -1.125 -0.944
B 789051 43.87% 29.93 -0.185 70.43% -1.028 -0.824
C 904892 43.5% 30.15 0.222 72.3% -0.889 -0.728
D 729671 43.83% 29.24 -0.378 70.54% -1.035 -0.906
E 329536 44.28% 33.35 0.955 70.29% -0.892 -0.763
F 391819 43.23% 32.26 0.135 71.75% -1.008 -0.841
G 351503 43.75% 31.84 0.338 71.55% -0.961 -0.819
H 362215 42.08% 32.6 0.251 72.69% -0.984 -0.771
East 117004 43.44% 38.8 1.13 63.56% -0.98 -1.047
Northeast 68573 41.52% 39.71 0.991 64.46% -0.953 -1.116
Northwest 52572 40.53% 39.04 -0.287 65.23% -1.006 -1.22
Southeast 20285 38.75% 34.8 -1.868 64.8% -0.992 -1.411
Southwest 18957 41.1% 31.23 -3.456 60.27% -1.372 -1.624
West 98888 43.91% 37.11 0.371 62.35% -1.079 -1.113

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 282326 0.0% 17.57 -3.313 64.15% -0.63 -1.01
Not Using Events or Tokens 758212 44.1% 21.57 -3.393 68.01% -0.505 -0.348
Skip Initial Invader Actions 101997 14.42% 38.33 3.999 87.21% 0.708 0.084
Start of Game Growth 147243 17.43% 37.84 3.02 85.65% 0.363 0.396
Unlimited Undo 350655 36.58% 33.38 0.502 77.63% 0.032 0.613
Using Tokens but Not Events 357448 31.91% 29.0 -1.113 78.48% -0.063 -0.144

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 104742 30.7 1.917 52.01% -0.143 -0.612
Aid From Lesser Spirits 85100 33.03 3.565 56.07% 0.137 -0.336
All Things Weaken 63662 30.41 1.001 49.45% -0.282 -0.663
Attenuated Essence 6704 29.28 2.126 48.03% -0.061 -0.743
Back Against the Wall 81824 31.42 2.597 52.77% -0.026 -0.489
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6856 28.19 1.451 44.76% -0.158 -0.812
Burn Brightest Before the End 5012 30.68 2.676 47.77% -0.111 -0.697
Disintegrating Ecosystem 99820 27.8 0.185 48.47% -0.337 -0.777
Downward Spiral 243896 24.86 -0.454 55.26% -0.14 -0.547
Erosion of Will 103159 29.53 1.257 49.21% -0.21 -0.777
Intensifying Exploitation 6933 27.2 1.19 43.66% -0.241 -0.821
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 24345 36.73 2.816 77.84% 0.568 0.123
Memory Fades to Dust 245457 24.31 -0.611 51.47% -0.256 -0.675
Power Corrodes the Spirit 62619 30.26 1.116 52.19% -0.163 -0.661
Promising Farmlands 100914 28.5 0.523 48.91% -0.299 -0.813
Shattered Fragments of Power 5080 31.25 2.845 48.29% -0.096 -0.689
Slow Dissolution of Will 6753 27.32 1.098 40.44% -0.366 -0.968
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16073 37.33 3.96 81.66% 0.791 0.373
The Border of Life and Death 1868 30.93 2.954 63.54% 0.515 -0.247
Thriving Communities 62102 29.5 0.531 50.01% -0.293 -0.674
Thriving Crops 3156 29.61 2.066 54.78% 0.111 -0.493
Tipping Point 30958 28.15 -10.099 49.04% -0.551 -0.801
Unnatural Proliferation 65996 31.73 2.175 51.17% -0.135 -0.605
Untended Land Crumbles 62692 29.61 0.758 50.25% -0.253 -0.734

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.11 Win Model: 0.8
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2692896 29.82 68.66%
2 611286 30.6 71.23%
3 165470 32.99 74.68%
4 104321 36.69 76.9%
5 2865 30.52 73.47%
6 9912 33.07 68.33%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.07 Win Model: 0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-02-14 04:16:55 (Pacific Time)