Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A 444342 45.5% 30.05 -0.653 73.27% 1.102
B 458497 44.76% 31.1 -0.161 74.42% 1.196
C 520463 44.59% 31.28 0.308 76.22% 1.429
D 429767 44.75% 30.49 -0.357 74.58% 1.191
E 118347 46.76% 35.42 0.836 74.79% 1.299
F 185096 43.65% 34.03 0.427 76.26% 1.254
G 169411 44.4% 33.51 0.249 75.6% 1.242
H 175593 42.56% 34.31 0.535 76.95% 1.257
East 42315 43.1% 42.82 2.398 67.72% 0.96
Northeast 42260 44.12% 41.55 1.881 66.67% 0.901
Northwest 32857 42.47% 41.28 1.598 68.39% 0.975
Southeast 7820 43.4% 37.43 0.504 71.71% 1.004
Southwest 7304 47.07% 33.39 -1.986 66.14% 0.6
West 37827 44.31% 41.04 1.227 65.38% 0.7

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
No Blight Card 166621 0.0% 19.32 -4.5 70.38% -2.049
Not Using Events or Tokens 452141 46.22% 23.34 -2.927 73.29% -0.221
Skip Initial Invader Actions 62318 14.0% 39.11 3.013 90.83% 0.705
Start of Game Growth 86667 16.4% 38.28 2.501 89.54% 0.452
Unlimited Undo 196068 36.67% 34.63 1.33 82.22% 0.417
Using Tokens but Not Events 198486 34.16% 30.08 -1.024 81.95% 0.051

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model
A Pall Upon the Land 63310 30.69 -2.248 52.59% -2.071
Aid From Lesser Spirits 51314 32.68 -1.266 56.14% -1.922
All Things Weaken 25915 30.81 -2.312 50.72% -2.153
Back Against the Wall 48972 31.08 -2.024 52.66% -2.096
Disintegrating Ecosystem 59723 27.79 -3.704 49.1% -2.226
Downward Spiral 153638 25.32 -3.398 57.0% -2.019
Erosion of Will 61878 29.53 -2.81 49.78% -2.21
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9759 37.77 1.261 80.41% -0.694
Memory Fades to Dust 154438 24.7 -3.714 52.83% -2.215
Power Corrodes the Spirit 25374 30.7 -2.326 53.82% -2.017
Promising Farmlands 60827 28.47 -3.359 49.52% -2.213
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6380 38.06 1.482 84.64% -0.43
Thriving Communities 25035 29.98 -2.71 51.88% -2.096
Tipping Point 30936 28.15 -3.405 49.05% -2.221
Unnatural Proliferation 26875 31.74 -1.835 52.17% -2.086
Untended Land Crumbles 25364 30.12 -2.635 51.88% -2.096

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.24 Win Model: -1.1
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 1468412 30.84 72.5%
2 338519 32.06 75.15%
3 89143 34.28 78.61%
4 63523 38.71 80.04%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.42 Win Model: -0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)