Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 679920 45.19% 29.95 -0.51 72.02% -0.74 -0.805
B 697610 44.48% 31.04 -0.321 73.1% -0.726 -0.691
C 800309 44.15% 31.23 0.214 74.89% -0.582 -0.626
D 646749 44.49% 30.33 -0.6 73.22% -0.711 -0.785
E 275736 45.27% 34.7 0.689 72.99% -0.565 -0.649
F 340218 43.86% 33.45 0.109 74.32% -0.67 -0.721
G 305439 44.38% 32.92 0.192 74.0% -0.652 -0.7
H 314572 42.68% 33.7 0.687 75.28% -0.571 -0.631
East 105361 44.69% 40.25 1.612 65.64% -0.539 -0.904
Northeast 61605 42.77% 41.21 0.676 66.61% -0.635 -1.02
Northwest 47231 41.69% 40.8 -0.617 67.83% -0.809 -1.002
Southeast 17117 40.85% 37.06 -0.31 69.04% -0.706 -1.282
Southwest 15789 43.63% 33.46 -2.406 64.74% -0.99 -1.435
West 88939 45.2% 38.66 0.329 64.72% -0.904 -1.018

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 241174 0.0% 18.79 -3.849 68.53% -0.776 -1.104
Not Using Events or Tokens 657744 44.95% 22.92 -2.892 72.0% -0.379 -0.282
Skip Initial Invader Actions 91700 14.23% 39.18 3.392 89.47% 0.618 0.118
Start of Game Growth 132141 17.16% 38.74 3.08 87.93% 0.349 0.358
Unlimited Undo 312614 36.98% 34.49 0.508 80.51% 0.007 0.714
Using Tokens but Not Events 317434 32.49% 29.94 -0.688 80.77% 0.01 -0.104

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 96913 30.97 1.032 52.47% -0.242 -0.82
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78947 33.2 3.133 56.39% 0.077 -0.545
All Things Weaken 56493 30.92 0.567 50.18% -0.393 -0.864
Attenuated Essence 2373 28.55 1.23 47.11% -0.107 -1.097
Back Against the Wall 75771 31.63 2.221 53.05% -0.058 -0.691
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2450 28.48 1.33 44.04% -0.202 -0.957
Burn Brightest Before the End 1796 30.94 2.491 47.05% -0.21 -0.979
Disintegrating Ecosystem 91831 28.11 -0.557 49.07% -0.424 -0.984
Downward Spiral 222234 25.44 -0.473 56.36% -0.236 -0.756
Erosion of Will 95305 29.81 0.836 49.64% -0.309 -0.977
Intensifying Exploitation 2511 27.1 0.37 43.85% -0.287 -1.052
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21472 37.61 2.639 79.53% 0.494 -0.035
Memory Fades to Dust 223726 24.86 -0.736 52.49% -0.336 -0.881
Power Corrodes the Spirit 55548 30.77 0.754 52.99% -0.22 -0.864
Promising Farmlands 93183 28.79 -0.334 49.43% -0.453 -1.016
Shattered Fragments of Power 1908 31.91 3.048 49.9% -0.051 -0.767
Slow Dissolution of Will 2360 27.77 0.755 40.72% -0.399 -1.204
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14197 38.05 3.822 83.36% 0.711 0.207
The Border of Life and Death 677 30.4 2.287 61.89% 0.335 -0.55
Thriving Communities 54935 30.05 0.088 50.88% -0.363 -0.872
Thriving Crops 1125 30.32 2.255 55.47% 0.198 -0.651
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 0.0 49.05% 0.0 -1.016
Unnatural Proliferation 58891 32.08 1.851 51.73% -0.215 -0.814
Untended Land Crumbles 55502 30.11 0.382 51.11% -0.282 -0.935

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: 0.61
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2374148 30.85 71.13%
2 536760 31.76 73.85%
3 143886 34.1 77.38%
4 93759 38.25 79.7%
5 1859 32.91 79.07%
6 6821 36.31 75.9%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.07 Win Model: 0.07

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)