Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 658324 45.41% 30.18 -0.687 72.68% -0.876 -0.781
B 675705 44.69% 31.29 -0.189 73.81% -0.782 -0.66
C 775590 44.37% 31.46 0.32 75.57% -0.639 -0.603
D 627122 44.68% 30.57 -0.647 73.88% -0.831 -0.752
E 260636 45.71% 35.15 0.606 74.01% -0.649 -0.604
F 326130 44.05% 33.79 0.204 75.15% -0.741 -0.69
G 293146 44.55% 33.21 0.027 74.77% -0.763 -0.673
H 302173 42.88% 33.99 0.555 76.02% -0.688 -0.6
East 102272 45.07% 40.57 1.556 66.23% -0.697 -0.853
Northeast 59738 43.17% 41.57 0.729 67.24% -0.889 -0.993
Northwest 45850 41.99% 41.23 0.798 68.57% -0.637 -0.931
Southeast 16190 41.45% 37.56 -0.535 70.43% -0.696 -1.242
Southwest 14912 44.51% 33.98 -2.635 65.93% -1.243 -1.391
West 86366 45.56% 39.03 0.641 65.37% -1.015 -0.979

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 235138 0.0% 18.99 -4.379 69.28% -1.006 -1.217
Not Using Events or Tokens 639818 45.2% 23.15 -2.965 72.78% -0.277 -0.272
Skip Initial Invader Actions 88927 14.27% 39.35 3.4 90.12% 0.523 0.17
Start of Game Growth 127977 17.19% 38.93 3.524 88.62% 0.376 0.385
Unlimited Undo 301783 37.1% 34.77 0.664 81.43% 0.076 0.739
Using Tokens but Not Events 306391 32.76% 30.17 -0.828 81.48% 0.046 -0.073

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 94848 31.05 0.849 52.69% -0.387 -0.9
Aid From Lesser Spirits 77444 33.23 2.172 56.46% -0.235 -0.63
All Things Weaken 54539 31.06 0.17 50.52% -0.585 -0.941
Attenuated Essence 1104 29.21 0.005 48.91% -0.433 -1.041
Back Against the Wall 74206 31.66 1.677 53.09% -0.321 -0.776
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1151 28.39 -0.367 43.44% -0.651 -0.92
Burn Brightest Before the End 887 31.11 0.862 48.93% -0.514 -0.921
Disintegrating Ecosystem 89846 28.19 -0.905 49.24% -0.66 -1.064
Downward Spiral 217440 25.53 -0.967 56.64% -0.482 -0.837
Erosion of Will 93290 29.85 -0.08 49.78% -0.612 -1.061
Intensifying Exploitation 1259 27.91 -0.736 45.19% -0.619 -1.081
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20723 37.84 2.42 80.07% 0.378 -0.098
Memory Fades to Dust 218925 24.96 -1.29 52.72% -0.618 -0.96
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53593 30.93 0.233 53.35% -0.42 -0.944
Promising Farmlands 91142 28.87 -1.077 49.61% -0.727 -1.098
Shattered Fragments of Power 935 32.79 1.769 53.16% -0.351 -0.653
Slow Dissolution of Will 1177 28.33 -0.561 42.57% -0.755 -1.169
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13714 38.25 4.021 83.95% 0.69 0.147
The Border of Life and Death 324 29.09 0.23 61.42% -0.111 -0.538
Thriving Communities 52940 30.22 -0.478 51.2% -0.644 -0.956
Thriving Crops 539 28.74 -0.427 53.62% -0.383 -0.735
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -4.023 49.05% 0.112 -1.099
Unnatural Proliferation 56845 32.19 1.221 51.97% -0.447 -0.902
Untended Land Crumbles 53615 30.25 -0.167 51.4% -0.526 -1.011

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.08 Win Model: 0.63
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2296700 31.08 71.79%
2 517967 32.05 74.59%
3 138223 34.4 78.2%
4 91222 38.6 80.36%
5 1607 34.41 82.27%
6 5846 37.42 79.06%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.07 Win Model: 0.05

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-22 03:28:22 (Pacific Time)