Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 659534 45.39% 30.17 -0.653 72.65% -0.873 -0.779
B 676943 44.67% 31.27 -0.173 73.77% -0.781 -0.658
C 777017 44.36% 31.44 0.281 75.53% -0.65 -0.602
D 628289 44.68% 30.55 -0.642 73.83% -0.833 -0.752
E 261544 45.68% 35.12 0.61 73.95% -0.648 -0.604
F 326973 44.04% 33.77 0.2 75.1% -0.742 -0.69
G 293909 44.54% 33.19 0.051 74.73% -0.761 -0.67
H 302900 42.88% 33.97 0.565 75.97% -0.689 -0.598
East 102414 45.05% 40.55 1.625 66.2% -0.664 -0.852
Northeast 59828 43.15% 41.54 0.518 67.2% -0.907 -0.993
Northwest 45924 41.97% 41.2 0.695 68.52% -0.642 -0.93
Southeast 16238 41.42% 37.54 -0.52 70.35% -0.715 -1.244
Southwest 14954 44.46% 33.97 -2.491 65.88% -1.198 -1.386
West 86495 45.54% 39.01 0.585 65.34% -1.032 -0.978

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 235530 0.0% 18.98 -4.34 69.22% -1.004 -1.211
Not Using Events or Tokens 640774 45.19% 23.13 -2.976 72.74% -0.278 -0.272
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89080 14.27% 39.34 3.369 90.08% 0.508 0.166
Start of Game Growth 128176 17.19% 38.92 3.529 88.59% 0.391 0.391
Unlimited Undo 302408 37.09% 34.75 0.599 81.36% 0.065 0.734
Using Tokens but Not Events 306976 32.74% 30.16 -0.773 81.45% 0.054 -0.071

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 94960 31.04 0.948 52.67% -0.364 -0.895
Aid From Lesser Spirits 77526 33.23 2.273 56.46% -0.201 -0.626
All Things Weaken 54647 31.06 0.252 50.51% -0.557 -0.936
Attenuated Essence 1159 29.18 0.13 48.58% -0.401 -1.087
Back Against the Wall 74303 31.65 1.661 53.08% -0.309 -0.772
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1223 28.05 -0.378 42.93% -0.633 -0.954
Burn Brightest Before the End 946 30.94 0.957 49.26% -0.475 -0.925
Disintegrating Ecosystem 89961 28.18 -0.896 49.23% -0.65 -1.06
Downward Spiral 217687 25.53 -0.877 56.63% -0.453 -0.832
Erosion of Will 93412 29.85 -0.045 49.76% -0.595 -1.056
Intensifying Exploitation 1343 27.85 -0.651 45.12% -0.585 -1.128
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20766 37.84 2.549 80.06% 0.421 -0.091
Memory Fades to Dust 219187 24.95 -1.229 52.7% -0.591 -0.956
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53693 30.92 0.288 53.34% -0.4 -0.939
Promising Farmlands 91269 28.86 -1.038 49.59% -0.707 -1.094
Shattered Fragments of Power 999 32.45 1.768 52.35% -0.338 -0.666
Slow Dissolution of Will 1256 28.37 -0.364 42.28% -0.724 -1.174
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13742 38.22 3.814 83.87% 0.662 0.144
The Border of Life and Death 345 29.29 0.483 61.74% -0.047 -0.548
Thriving Communities 53054 30.2 -0.462 51.17% -0.624 -0.951
Thriving Crops 571 29.1 -0.103 53.94% -0.326 -0.739
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -3.841 49.05% 0.12 -1.094
Unnatural Proliferation 56974 32.17 1.236 51.94% -0.434 -0.898
Untended Land Crumbles 53744 30.25 -0.008 51.41% -0.478 -1.005

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.08 Win Model: 0.64
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2300944 31.06 71.76%
2 519087 32.03 74.55%
3 138588 34.38 78.14%
4 91386 38.58 80.32%
5 1623 34.35 82.19%
6 5902 37.35 78.84%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.06 Win Model: 0.04

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-23 03:54:00 (Pacific Time)