Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 828774 44.0% 28.3 -0.699 67.89% -0.862 -1.035
B 843516 43.51% 29.46 -0.294 69.16% -0.817 -0.916
C 965941 43.12% 29.71 0.317 71.09% -0.679 -0.802
D 778495 43.43% 28.78 -0.534 69.3% -0.805 -0.99
E 363030 43.77% 32.76 0.766 69.09% -0.669 -0.828
F 424020 42.85% 31.74 0.045 70.51% -0.798 -0.911
G 379888 43.27% 31.34 -0.065 70.27% -0.826 -0.912
H 391417 41.67% 32.11 0.189 71.43% -0.773 -0.851
East 124651 42.74% 38.01 0.674 62.54% -0.846 -1.127
Northeast 72982 40.87% 38.96 1.074 63.46% -0.771 -1.171
Northwest 55918 39.92% 38.19 0.005 64.1% -0.807 -1.312
Southeast 22665 37.55% 33.68 -1.028 62.89% -0.869 -1.486
Southwest 21126 39.94% 30.12 -2.843 58.08% -1.282 -1.738
West 105521 43.22% 36.28 -0.121 61.2% -0.996 -1.188

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 300742 0.0% 17.12 -3.888 62.52% -0.796 -0.85
Not Using Events or Tokens 811285 43.68% 21.06 -3.018 66.35% -0.388 -0.418
Skip Initial Invader Actions 107284 14.35% 38.17 5.024 86.22% 0.615 0.158
Start of Game Growth 155587 17.4% 37.57 3.661 84.6% 0.582 0.413
Unlimited Undo 374102 36.29% 32.84 -0.02 76.05% -0.044 0.55
Using Tokens but Not Events 383488 31.54% 28.6 -0.411 77.3% 0.058 -0.149

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 109325 30.6 1.498 51.78% -0.175 -0.519
Aid From Lesser Spirits 88560 32.98 3.105 55.94% 0.054 -0.237
All Things Weaken 68172 30.16 0.981 49.05% -0.293 -0.573
Attenuated Essence 9656 29.39 1.514 48.3% -0.084 -0.61
Back Against the Wall 85265 31.37 2.539 52.69% -0.047 -0.389
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9645 28.27 1.023 45.23% -0.203 -0.71
Burn Brightest Before the End 7156 30.62 2.143 47.72% -0.188 -0.608
Disintegrating Ecosystem 104466 27.65 -0.348 48.17% -0.409 -0.683
Downward Spiral 256462 24.63 -0.382 54.76% -0.128 -0.452
Erosion of Will 107829 29.43 1.036 49.0% -0.283 -0.681
Intensifying Exploitation 9942 27.32 0.73 43.91% -0.248 -0.722
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26046 36.36 2.829 76.99% 0.515 0.189
Memory Fades to Dust 258108 24.1 -0.23 51.01% -0.237 -0.578
Power Corrodes the Spirit 67004 30.02 0.947 51.77% -0.218 -0.578
Promising Farmlands 105639 28.36 0.346 48.63% -0.295 -0.721
Shattered Fragments of Power 7099 30.99 2.278 47.98% -0.201 -0.549
Slow Dissolution of Will 9561 27.29 0.946 40.48% -0.384 -0.872
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17178 36.96 3.327 80.77% 0.581 0.437
The Border of Life and Death 2659 30.81 2.648 63.41% 0.517 -0.168
Thriving Communities 66566 29.23 0.097 49.6% -0.339 -0.591
Thriving Crops 4405 29.3 0.794 54.48% 0.042 -0.431
Tipping Point 30959 28.15 0.0 49.04% 0.0 -0.693
Unnatural Proliferation 70528 31.53 2.011 50.9% -0.14 -0.512
Untended Land Crumbles 67248 29.35 0.029 49.74% -0.449 -0.65

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.02 Win Model: 0.66
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2883402 29.38 67.49%
2 654621 30.14 70.13%
3 178732 32.57 73.61%
4 112140 35.64 74.8%
5 3501 29.4 70.81%
6 11711 32.37 66.08%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: 0.12 Win Model: 0.1

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)