Spirits

Adversaries

Scenarios

Layouts

Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A 650809 45.49% 30.27 -0.685 72.93% -0.905 -0.782
B 668265 44.76% 31.38 -0.121 74.05% -0.798 -0.662
C 766955 44.43% 31.55 0.332 75.82% -0.65 -0.605
D 620498 44.75% 30.66 -0.639 74.12% -0.85 -0.752
E 255466 45.84% 35.31 0.501 74.34% -0.697 -0.61
F 321339 44.13% 33.92 0.192 75.44% -0.77 -0.695
G 288860 44.62% 33.33 0.016 75.07% -0.773 -0.675
H 297623 42.96% 34.1 0.465 76.3% -0.721 -0.603
East 101200 45.2% 40.71 1.465 66.47% -0.781 -0.853
Northeast 59135 43.29% 41.73 1.071 67.48% -0.955 -0.993
Northwest 45403 42.13% 41.4 1.323 68.81% -0.61 -0.936
Southeast 15873 41.73% 37.86 -0.006 71.05% -0.67 -1.244
Southwest 14597 44.71% 34.26 -2.52 66.55% -1.283 -1.41
West 85482 45.7% 39.17 0.55 65.62% -1.104 -0.98

Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 232765 0.0% 19.07 -4.811 69.59% -1.201 -1.268
Not Using Events or Tokens 633675 45.27% 23.23 -3.036 73.05% -0.244 -0.27
Skip Initial Invader Actions 87963 14.27% 39.44 3.866 90.41% 0.577 0.217
Start of Game Growth 126620 17.2% 39.02 3.914 88.91% 0.459 0.396
Unlimited Undo 297841 37.14% 34.89 1.023 81.83% 0.178 0.763
Using Tokens but Not Events 302253 32.85% 30.26 -1.036 81.75% 0.039 -0.072

Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 94186 31.07 0.135 52.72% -0.665 -0.934
Aid From Lesser Spirits 76899 33.24 1.536 56.49% -0.464 -0.665
All Things Weaken 53832 31.12 -0.383 50.63% -0.813 -0.972
Attenuated Essence 679 30.03 -0.762 51.55% -0.645 -0.977
Back Against the Wall 73674 31.69 1.108 53.13% -0.547 -0.808
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 727 28.89 -1.225 44.02% -0.919 -0.978
Burn Brightest Before the End 545 30.45 -0.475 48.99% -0.792 -0.885
Disintegrating Ecosystem 89157 28.22 -1.401 49.32% -0.857 -1.097
Downward Spiral 215767 25.57 -1.347 56.74% -0.679 -0.867
Erosion of Will 92618 29.89 -0.549 49.86% -0.807 -1.091
Intensifying Exploitation 776 27.4 -1.994 43.94% -0.944 -1.041
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20476 37.94 2.356 80.26% 0.254 -0.119
Memory Fades to Dust 217281 24.99 -1.696 52.79% -0.827 -0.989
Power Corrodes the Spirit 52916 30.99 -0.281 53.43% -0.638 -0.977
Promising Farmlands 90455 28.91 -1.548 49.7% -0.895 -1.126
Shattered Fragments of Power 619 32.78 0.658 52.67% -0.648 -0.698
Slow Dissolution of Will 746 29.17 -1.267 43.7% -0.982 -1.093
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13551 38.27 3.249 84.09% 0.492 0.117
The Border of Life and Death 216 29.78 -0.3 65.28% -0.206 -0.185
Thriving Communities 52277 30.28 -1.017 51.32% -0.882 -0.984
Thriving Crops 352 29.77 -0.97 55.4% -0.552 -0.634
Tipping Point 30955 28.15 -5.112 49.05% 0.088 -1.131
Unnatural Proliferation 56148 32.23 0.619 52.06% -0.667 -0.936
Untended Land Crumbles 52924 30.3 -0.664 51.5% -0.732 -1.042

Difficulty

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.1 Win Model: 0.68
Number Completed Average Score Win Rate
1 2269632 31.17 72.04%
2 511498 32.16 74.85%
3 136262 34.52 78.52%
4 90400 38.72 80.57%
5 1532 35.02 83.29%
6 5513 38.12 80.7%

Wave (in Second Wave Scenario)

Score Model: -0.14 Win Model: 0.03

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. All models omit the user with ID starting with 83fcac33, for extreme outlying behavior.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Difficulty

Difficulty is calculated treating England 6 as difficulty 11, "Start of Game Growth" as -1, and "Skip Initial Invader Actions" as -2. Use of the Thematic island is +1 difficulty if tokens are used, +3 if they are not used. Scenarios with variable difficulty use the average or "assumed" value.

Difficulty Model

Logistic regression coefficient, only looking at games involving this Spirit, using difficulty to predict win likelihood. The lower the value, the worse this Spirit is affected by high difficulty.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)