Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Other (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
29	40.74%	36.21	75.86%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	9	14.29%	39.33	100.0%	0.256	0.208	0.418
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5	60.0%	34.8	80.0%	0.064	0.1279	-0.239
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4	0.0%	51.75	100.0%	0.069	-0.1687	0.299
Downpour Drenches the World	3	0.0%	29.67	100.0%	0.152	0.5432	0.41
Eyes Watch From the Trees	4	25.0%	25.0	75.0%	0.153	-0.262	-0.412
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	0.0%	54.0	100.0%	0.105	-0.4893	-0.71
Finder of Paths Unseen	5	40.0%	28.6	100.0%	0.136	0.5408	0.218
Fractured Days Split the Sky	2	0.0%	41.0	50.0%	0.071	0.1132	-0.016
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	6	50.0%	28.0	50.0%	0.154	0.1374	-0.546
Heart of the Wildfire	3	100.0%	60.67	100.0%	0.056	0.3846	0.197
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	6	16.67%	46.33	100.0%	0.093	-0.5415	-0.349
Lightning's Swift Strike	1	0.0%	96.0	100.0%	0.058	0.3314	0.136
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	4	50.0%	34.75	100.0%	0.063	-0.7697
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%	0.055	-0.5168
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	10	11.11%	39.0	100.0%	0.194	-0.0131	0.699
Many Minds Move as One	6	50.0%	38.67	83.33%	0.167	-0.3453	0.13
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	10	75.0%	42.1	60.0%	-0.247	-0.5299	0.179
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	12	50.0%	28.08	41.67%	-0.567	-0.5344	-0.521
River Surges in Sunlight	8	33.33%	42.75	50.0%	-0.205	-0.1993	-0.237
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	5	60.0%	36.6	60.0%	-0.322	0.122	-0.262
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	2	0.0%	44.0	100.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	5	20.0%	30.8	80.0%	-0.098	-0.2419	0.304
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	0.0%	49.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	31.0	100.0%	0.037	0.0348
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	4	100.0%	20.25	0.0%	-0.374	-0.3048	-0.262
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	0.0%	34.25	75.0%	-0.199	-0.4606	0.131
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	75.0%	31.25	50.0%	-0.146	-0.1243	-0.185
Shroud of Silent Mist	6	60.0%	43.0	83.33%	-0.121	0.1237	0.197
Starlight Seeks its Form	9	44.44%	31.78	66.67%	-0.152	-0.3636	0.317
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	7	42.86%	40.14	100.0%	0.127	-0.0427	0.058
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%	-0.109	0.0012
Thunderspeaker	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%	0.14	0.0444
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	6	80.0%	37.5	100.0%	0.185	0.0876	0.474
Vital Strength of the Earth	4	0.0%	35.0	75.0%			-0.477
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	2	50.0%	34.0	100.0%	0.069	0.4703	0.131
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	50.0%	27.0	50.0%			-0.265
Volcano Looming High	4	75.0%	23.0	75.0%	0.175	0.1591	0.069

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	49.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4	66.67%	33.5	-0.455	50.0%	0.021	-0.2534
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	1	100.0%	81.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	0	1	1	0.0%	52.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	0.0%	54.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	2	4	2	100.0%	24.5	-2.239	0.0%	-0.374	0.7616
The Kingdom of England	3	6	1	100.0%	23.0	2.713	0.0%	0.051	1.7397
The Kingdom of England	4	7	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	52.0	-0.455	100.0%	0.021	0.7623
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	3	7	1	0.0%	30.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	0	1	3	0.0%	50.33		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	2	0.0%	40.0	0.792	50.0%	-0.267	0.073
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	1	100.0%	51.0		100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	0	1	2	0.0%	40.0	0.792	50.0%	-0.267	-0.5462
The Tsardom of Russia	2	4	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Elemental Invocation	1	1	0.0%	54.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	0.0%	36.67	33.33%	-0.245	-0.0511	-0.142
Rituals of Terror	3	2	100.0%	24.5	0.0%	-0.374	-1.2101	-0.262
Second Wave	0	10	40.0%	25.1	100.0%	0.309	0.8816	0.131

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	25.0	0.0%	-0.374	1.5355	-0.262
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	18.0	100.0%	0.041	2.1065	-0.146
Downward Spiral	5	33.2	60.0%	0.057	2.0197	-0.046
Memory Fades to Dust	1	23.0	0.0%	0.076	2.1332	-0.1
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	51.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	24.0	0.0%			-0.217
Unnatural Proliferation	1	22.0	100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	23	42.86%	39.22	73.91%	-0.135	0.6246	0.023
B	25	43.48%	34.52	72.0%	-0.311	0.3652	0.008
C	26	45.83%	36.35	76.92%	0.542	1.0674	-0.327
D	25	39.13%	37.12	76.0%	-0.139	0.5876	0.164
E	24	31.82%	34.96	79.17%	0.35	0.9098	0.072
F	24	39.13%	35.13	79.17%	-0.063	0.6265	0.139
G	24	47.83%	34.04	70.83%	-0.122	0.5732	-0.185
H	26	33.33%	38.27	84.62%	-0.077	0.5834	0.159

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	2	0.0%	73.0	100.0%			0.136
Skip Initial Invader Actions	6	0.0%	56.33	100.0%			0.136
Start of Game Growth	5	0.0%	59.8	100.0%	0.037	-0.5859	-0.021
Unlimited Undo	5	0.0%	59.8	100.0%	0.037	-0.5939	0.136
Using Tokens but Not Events	4	0.0%	62.5	100.0%	0.035	0.0782	-0.184

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	5	22.62	0.0%
II	5	31.05	100.0%
III	11	34.62	81.82%
IV	8	37.86	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	5
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	8
Lose: Scenario condition	2
Lose: Blight pool ran out	5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.