Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Other (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
37	37.14%	35.54	81.08%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	12	30.0%	36.08	100.0%	-0.272	-0.4509	0.317
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5	60.0%	34.8	80.0%	-0.453	-0.4386	-0.555
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	8	0.0%	42.75	100.0%	0.089	-0.1562	0.284
Downpour Drenches the World	6	16.67%	31.67	100.0%	-0.365	0.0226	0.139
Eyes Watch From the Trees	7	14.29%	28.71	85.71%	0.177	-0.2965	-0.416
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3	0.0%	34.67	100.0%	0.189	-0.2576	-0.528
Finder of Paths Unseen	5	40.0%	28.6	100.0%	0.105	0.4689	0.343
Fractured Days Split the Sky	4	25.0%	32.75	75.0%	0.088	0.1918	0.072
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	7	42.86%	27.71	57.14%	0.058	-0.0062	-0.536
Heart of the Wildfire	4	66.67%	52.0	100.0%	0.046	0.3052	0.189
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	8	12.5%	45.25	100.0%	0.134	-0.4492	-0.285
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	50.0%	59.33	100.0%			0.103
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	5	40.0%	38.0	100.0%	0.045	-0.7694
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	1	0.0%	26.0	100.0%	0.046	-0.4315	0.209
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	11	10.0%	38.45	100.0%	0.099	-0.0226	0.948
Many Minds Move as One	6	50.0%	38.67	83.33%	0.086	-0.5373	0.15
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	13	72.73%	40.46	69.23%	0.088	-0.0394	0.225
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	15	40.0%	27.53	53.33%	0.084	0.0005	-0.51
River Surges in Sunlight	9	42.86%	41.33	55.56%	0.086	-0.1062	-0.213
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	6	50.0%	39.0	66.67%	0.045	0.3324	-0.256
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	2	0.0%	44.0	100.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	7	42.86%	29.57	85.71%	-0.136	-0.3096	0.267
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	0.0%	49.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	31.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	4	100.0%	20.25	0.0%			-0.256
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	5	0.0%	34.0	80.0%	-0.316	-0.5157	-0.246
Shifting Memory of Ages	7	57.14%	36.86	71.43%	-0.408	-0.1792	-0.307
Shroud of Silent Mist	6	60.0%	43.0	83.33%			0.189
Starlight Seeks its Form	11	45.45%	31.09	72.73%	0.236	0.0793	0.456
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	30.0%	36.4	100.0%	0.052	-0.2119	0.087
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%
Thunderspeaker	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%	0.086	0.0093
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	7	66.67%	35.57	100.0%	0.058	-0.2038	0.507
Vital Strength of the Earth	4	0.0%	35.0	75.0%	0.047	0.8003	-0.37
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	2	50.0%	34.0	100.0%			0.199
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	50.0%	27.0	50.0%			-0.246
Volcano Looming High	6	50.0%	32.5	83.33%	0.045	0.041	0.097

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	49.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4	66.67%	33.5		50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	1	100.0%	81.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	0	1	1	0.0%	52.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	0.0%	54.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	2	4	2	100.0%	24.5		0.0%
The Kingdom of England	3	6	1	100.0%	23.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of England	4	7	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	52.0	-2.962	100.0%	0.038	0.62
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	51.0	0.345	100.0%	0.045	1.1123
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	3	7	1	0.0%	30.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	2	4	1	0.0%	52.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	0	1	3	0.0%	50.33		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	51.0	0.345	100.0%	0.045	0.0817
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	2	0.0%	40.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	1	100.0%	51.0		100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	0	1	2	0.0%	40.0		50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	2	4	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Elemental Invocation	1	1	0.0%	54.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	0.0%	36.67	33.33%			-0.178
Rituals of Terror	3	2	100.0%	24.5	0.0%			-0.256
Second Wave	0	14	35.71%	25.5	100.0%	0.046	0.5081	0.199

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	25.0	0.0%			-0.256
Disintegrating Ecosystem	2	24.0	100.0%			-0.169
Downward Spiral	5	33.2	60.0%			0.011
Memory Fades to Dust	1	23.0	0.0%			0.002
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	51.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	24.0	0.0%			-0.127
Unnatural Proliferation	1	22.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	23.0	100.0%	0.088	1.9023

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	27	40.0%	38.0	77.78%	-0.091	0.6859	-0.02
B	32	40.0%	33.66	78.13%	-0.039	0.6647	0.01
C	33	41.94%	35.09	81.82%	0.006	0.5338	-0.334
D	32	33.33%	36.34	81.25%	-0.078	0.6564	0.047
E	29	29.63%	34.59	82.76%	-0.082	0.5021	0.077
F	32	35.48%	34.63	84.38%	0.006	0.7133	0.156
G	32	41.94%	33.81	78.13%	0.315	0.9572	0.013
H	31	31.03%	37.23	87.1%	0.006	0.6513	0.12

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	2	0.0%	73.0	100.0%			0.103
Skip Initial Invader Actions	7	0.0%	55.57	100.0%	0.092	-0.9673	0.255
Start of Game Growth	6	0.0%	58.33	100.0%	0.092	-0.3304	0.104
Unlimited Undo	6	0.0%	58.33	100.0%	0.092	-0.3236	0.255
Using Tokens but Not Events	7	0.0%	50.43	100.0%	0.091	0.2065	-0.23

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	5	22.63	0.0%
II	7	31.12	100.0%
III	15	34.7	86.67%
IV	10	37.97	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	10
Lose: Scenario condition	2
Lose: Blight pool ran out	5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.