Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 20.0% 4.2 0.0%
Blitz 0 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 16.67% 10.17 0.0% -0.314
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.217
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 18.0 33.33% -0.08
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9 0.0% 20.89 33.33% 0.254 -0.3426 0.269
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.132 0.6162
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 41 29.27% 19.88 70.73% 0.258 0.2541
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 0.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 46.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 21.0 0.0%
All Things Weaken 1 50.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 4 60.0 75.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 24.0 100.0% 0.146 0.1907 0.354
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0%
Downward Spiral 6 30.5 50.0%
Intensifying Exploitation 2 51.5 50.0% -0.338
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 25.5 50.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 23.67 66.67%
Promising Farmlands 2 46.5 50.0% 0.199
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 27.5 50.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 23.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 1 30.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0% 0.223 0.3127 0.336
Untended Land Crumbles 2 21.0 50.0% -0.145 0.0803 -0.11

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 169 18.4% 16.82 34.32% -0.153 0.6464 -0.314
B 184 19.1% 16.4 35.87% -0.007 0.7232 -0.073
C 185 18.44% 16.91 35.68% 0.125 0.7289 -0.067
D 192 18.28% 17.24 35.94% -0.23 0.5266 -0.345
E 186 17.13% 16.96 35.48% 0.147 0.731 -0.26
F 187 18.13% 17.06 36.9% -0.233 0.4699 -0.124
G 167 20.12% 16.63 34.73% 0.311 1.0682 0.335
H 165 18.87% 17.58 36.97% -0.009 0.6223 0.786

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 43.33 66.67% 0.184 1.058
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 5.56% 43.38 79.17% 0.184 -0.1071
Start of Game Growth 26 5.0% 38.54 69.23% 0.184 -0.3725 0.173
Unlimited Undo 29 4.17% 34.55 62.07% 0.33 0.3938 -0.071
Using Tokens but Not Events 35 13.79% 25.77 60.0% 0.184 0.0571 0.239

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 123 12.44 0.81%
II 27 29.94 74.07%
III 39 34.9 89.74%
IV 18 38.84 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 119
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)