Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.169 0.0% -0.164 1.7766
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.06 0.0% -0.276 -0.1777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 66.67% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.508 0.0% -0.138 -0.2008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 50.0% 40.5 -8.424 50.0% -0.171 1.1118
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 52.0 8.17 100.0% 0.243 0.4184
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 96.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 51.0 2.583 100.0% -0.058 0.9111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 30.0 8.17 0.0% 0.243 1.6306
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 8.882 100.0% 0.144 0.5773
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 10.174 100.0% 0.148 0.5525
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 8.225 0.0% 0.303 1.5799
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 0.0% 30.2 -5.412 60.0% -0.349 -0.1996
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 51.0 6.557 100.0% 0.134 0.1238
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 0.0% 47.33 8.882 66.67% 0.144 0.3758
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.233 0.0% -0.258 0.5472
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 20.0 -2.669 25.0% -0.105 -0.0633
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -10.284 0.0% -0.249 0.3541
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 -3.087 50.0% -0.33 -0.0377

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.138 -0.2162 -0.128
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 0.0% 36.67 33.33% -0.175
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0% -0.248
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.258 0.7342 -0.152
Second Wave 0 17 35.29% 24.0 94.12% -0.32 -0.2571 0.193
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.171 0.3917 -0.383

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 25.0 0.0% -0.248
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0% 0.183 0.7096 -0.053
Downward Spiral 5 33.2 60.0% 0.044
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0% 0.26 0.7411 0.038
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 25.5 50.0% -0.176 0.1283
Promising Farmlands 1 24.0 0.0% -0.285 0.3011 -0.088
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 1 23.0 100.0% 0.246 0.6043

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 43 29.27% 28.56 60.47% 0.311 1.1506 -0.014
B 46 31.82% 26.46 63.04% 0.057 0.8359 0.32
C 47 31.11% 27.38 63.83% -0.167 0.4865 0.06
D 47 26.67% 28.4 63.83% -0.142 0.6572 -0.373
E 46 22.73% 26.2 63.04% -0.31 0.3186 0.038
F 50 26.53% 26.2 64.0% 0.237 0.9561 0.14
G 48 29.79% 26.75 62.5% 0.36 1.1021 -0.06
H 47 24.44% 28.06 65.96% -0.417 0.2311 -0.193

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.176
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 0.0% 54.22 100.0% 0.637 0.1019 0.353
Start of Game Growth 10 0.0% 44.9 80.0% -0.245 -0.5752 0.221
Unlimited Undo 13 0.0% 34.54 61.54% -0.798 -0.8195 -0.234
Using Tokens but Not Events 12 10.0% 36.75 83.33% 0.401 0.3471 -0.245

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19 21.03 5.26%
II 7 31.04 100.0%
III 19 34.74 89.47%
IV 10 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 13
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)