Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.06 0.0% -0.138 1.8749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 0.0 -9.684 0.0% -0.36 -0.2743
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 66.67% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 50.0% 40.5 -8.605 50.0% -0.245 1.0934
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 96.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 51.0 -2.309 100.0% -0.244 0.7115
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.701 0.0% -0.233 1.1688
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 8.229 100.0% 0.172 0.6016
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 10.683 100.0% 0.172 0.6137
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 5.003 0.0% -0.072 1.2037
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 0.0% 30.2 -5.567 60.0% -0.394 -0.2144
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 0.0% 47.33 8.229 66.67% 0.172 0.3947
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 0.0% 0.0 -10.353 0.0% -0.46 0.4268
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 20.0 0.281 25.0% 0.083 0.2042
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 -2.309 50.0% -0.244 0.1821

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.233 -0.4884 -0.259
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 0.0% 36.67 33.33% -0.179
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0% -0.221
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.46 0.5491 -0.159
Second Wave 0 18 38.89% 24.11 94.44% -0.041 0.0248 0.196
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.245 0.3782 -0.37

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 25.0 0.0% -0.221
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0% -0.083
Downward Spiral 5 33.2 60.0% 0.065
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0% 0.266 0.6025 0.042
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 25.5 50.0% -0.139 0.0818
Promising Farmlands 1 24.0 0.0% -0.17
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 26.0 100.0% 0.118 -0.593
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 1 23.0 100.0% 0.245 0.5263

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 46 29.55% 27.26 58.7% 0.228 0.9677 0.007
B 49 31.91% 25.37 61.22% -0.069 0.6565 0.311
C 49 31.91% 26.8 63.27% -0.053 0.5297 0.173
D 50 27.08% 27.22 62.0% -0.263 0.448 -0.547
E 48 21.74% 25.1 60.42% -0.331 0.2343 -0.003
F 53 26.92% 25.21 62.26% 0.113 0.7832 0.203
G 51 30.0% 25.69 60.78% 0.312 0.9633 -0.001
H 49 25.53% 27.45 65.31% 0.142 0.7128 -0.217

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0% 0.175
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 0.0% 54.22 100.0% 0.549 -0.0682 0.316
Start of Game Growth 10 0.0% 44.9 80.0% -0.267 -0.6154 0.219
Unlimited Undo 13 0.0% 34.54 61.54% -0.695 -0.7013 -0.262
Using Tokens but Not Events 12 10.0% 36.75 83.33% 0.643 0.6331 -0.249

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21 20.4 4.76%
II 7 31.01 100.0%
III 19 34.76 89.47%
IV 11 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 15
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)