Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 16.33 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 27.5 5.921 50.0% 0.102 0.8767
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 66.67% 33.5 1.529 50.0% 0.053 0.1683
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 33.33% 27.0 -6.998 33.33% -0.291 1.1953
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4 0.0% 28.0 1.656 50.0% 0.103 0.4309
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 50.0% 37.5 1.863 50.0% 0.069 0.3722
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 7.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 0.0% 48.0 8.183 50.0% 0.069 1.2869
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1 0.0% 0.0 11.575 0.0% 0.047 2.107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 25.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 16.67% 10.17 -0.831 0.0% -0.232 0.7355
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7 0.0% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 17.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 54.0 5.092 100.0% 0.068 0.7657
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 20.0 25.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.5 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 7.0 0.0% -0.109
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.496
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 100.0% 61.0 0.0% -0.439
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 27.0 50.0% -0.08
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 0.0% 36.67 33.33% 0.103 -0.6219 0.366
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0% -0.148
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.116
Second Wave 0 29 27.59% 22.52 82.76% -0.35 -0.2688 -0.098
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.315
Ward the Shores 2 2 100.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.184

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 25.0 0.0% 0.059 0.1978 -0.148
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 21.0 0.0% 0.366
Back Against the Wall 1 61.0 0.0% 0.075
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 24.0 100.0% 0.161 0.2814
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0% 0.002
Downward Spiral 5 33.2 60.0% 0.231
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 0.0 0.0% -0.081
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0% -0.16
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 25.5 50.0% 0.069 0.3636 -0.384
Promising Farmlands 1 24.0 0.0% -0.339
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 27.5 50.0% 0.102 0.5018
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 23.0 100.0% 0.114 -0.4991
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0% 0.158
Untended Land Crumbles 1 23.0 100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 84 22.22% 20.37 46.43% 0.335 1.2397 0.175
B 94 25.27% 18.78 46.81% 0.197 1.025 0.925
C 97 23.4% 18.98 45.36% -0.093 0.5871 0.125
D 99 21.88% 19.02 45.45% 0.27 1.1237 -0.718
E 96 20.21% 18.63 44.79% -0.044 0.6572 0.361
F 99 22.68% 18.77 47.47% -0.06 0.7211 -0.052
G 86 23.81% 17.71 43.02% -0.447 0.3243 -0.337
H 92 22.47% 19.28 46.74% -0.096 0.6724 -0.556

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67% 0.078
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 0.0% 42.87 80.0% 0.277
Start of Game Growth 16 0.0% 37.75 68.75% 0.059 -0.4797 0.105
Unlimited Undo 20 0.0% 30.2 55.0% 0.081
Using Tokens but Not Events 19 12.5% 28.63 68.42% -0.087 -0.11 -0.201

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 52 16.23 1.92%
II 17 30.54 64.71%
III 26 34.77 92.31%
IV 14 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 50
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)