Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 16.33 -5.27 33.33% -0.251 0.0954
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.571 0.0% 0.002 0.8138
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 -3.944 0.0% -0.154 1.7774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 0.0 -2.204 0.0% -0.207 0.0094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 66.67% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -1.945 0.0% -0.147 0.525
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4 0.0% 28.0 3.914 50.0% 0.011 0.2201
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 7.67 -2.379 0.0% -0.147 1.0713
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 0.0% 48.0 -3.873 50.0% -0.169 1.1113
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.901 0.0% -0.189 1.8056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 25.5 -5.27 50.0% -0.251 0.5556
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.873 0.0% -0.169 0.9338
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 0.0 -2.379 0.0% -0.147 1.3666
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.038 0.0% -0.147 1.3301
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 61.0 11.784 100.0% 0.18 0.5647
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 0.0% 0.0 -2.082 0.0% -0.28 0.8613
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 0.0% 25.17 -4.2 50.0% -0.169 0.0265
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 0.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 17.0 -1.945 33.33% -0.147 0.3201
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 0.0% 0.0 -4.055 0.0% -0.511 0.487
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 20.0 25.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.944 0.0% -0.154 0.878
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 100.0% 0.0 2.079 0.0% -0.332 1.6499

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 7.0 0.0% -0.111
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 27.0 50.0% -0.082
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 0.0% 36.67 33.33% 0.44 -0.3339 0.35
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0% -0.167
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.128
Second Wave 0 22 31.82% 22.09 86.36% 0.549 0.6292 -0.084
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.308
Ward the Shores 2 2 100.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.269 0.5936 -0.178

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 25.0 0.0% -0.167
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 21.0 0.0% 0.375
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0% -0.009
Downward Spiral 5 33.2 60.0% 0.226
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 0.0 0.0% -0.287 -0.8186 -0.081
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0% -0.133
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 25.5 50.0% 0.155 0.3081 -0.344
Promising Farmlands 1 24.0 0.0% -0.252 0.0947 -0.316
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 26.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0% 0.152
Untended Land Crumbles 1 23.0 100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 68 21.54% 20.26 44.12% 0.58 1.5746 0.161
B 75 23.61% 18.83 45.33% 0.271 1.1888 0.86
C 78 21.33% 19.0 44.87% -0.006 0.7369 0.126
D 79 19.74% 19.37 44.3% 0.025 0.977 -0.741
E 75 16.44% 18.32 44.0% 0.055 0.8359 0.344
F 79 20.78% 19.05 46.84% -0.15 0.7426 -0.058
G 72 24.29% 18.82 44.44% -0.623 0.232 -0.353
H 79 18.42% 19.16 45.57% -0.22 0.6279 -0.415

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67% -0.189 0.4405 0.076
Skip Initial Invader Actions 14 0.0% 41.71 78.57% 0.278 -0.3574 0.27
Start of Game Growth 15 0.0% 36.33 66.67% 0.278 -0.1119 0.095
Unlimited Undo 19 0.0% 28.68 52.63% 0.278 0.322 0.132
Using Tokens but Not Events 15 8.33% 29.4 66.67% 0.233 0.2057 -0.164

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 42 17.67 2.38%
II 14 30.7 64.29%
III 21 34.75 90.48%
IV 11 38.22 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 40
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)