Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 7.0 0.0% -0.103
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.416
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 50.0% 30.5 0.0% 0.081 -0.2066 -0.568
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 27.0 50.0% -0.035
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 21.71 28.57% -0.17 -0.7704 0.208
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 24.5 0.0% -0.261
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.589
Second Wave 0 37 29.73% 21.0 75.68% -0.041 0.2084 -0.243
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.143 0.9721 -0.398
Ward the Shores 2 2 100.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.359

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 25.0 0.0% -0.261
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 21.0 0.0% -0.066
Back Against the Wall 2 43.5 50.0% 0.056
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 24.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 24.0 100.0% -0.035
Downward Spiral 5 33.2 60.0% -0.304 -0.2301 -0.011
Intensifying Exploitation 1 57.0 100.0% 0.189
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 0.0 0.0% -0.068
Memory Fades to Dust 2 22.0 50.0% -0.149
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 23.67 66.67% -0.507
Promising Farmlands 1 24.0 0.0% -0.418
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 27.5 50.0% 0.178 0.4759
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 23.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 1 30.0 0.0% -0.16
Unnatural Proliferation 1 22.0 100.0% 0.336
Untended Land Crumbles 1 23.0 100.0% 0.271

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 116 19.64% 18.01 40.52% 0.181 1.1559 0.594
B 127 21.14% 16.65 40.94% 0.101 0.9905 0.756
C 131 20.47% 17.53 40.46% 0.311 1.0032 0.186
D 133 19.38% 17.58 40.6% 0.007 0.9018 -0.586
E 130 17.32% 17.05 39.23% -0.444 0.2854 -0.176
F 131 19.53% 17.5 41.98% 0.006 0.8373 0.121
G 116 21.24% 16.17 37.93% -0.149 0.63 -0.263
H 122 19.49% 17.6 40.98% 0.034 0.8167 -0.538

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 47.0 75.0% -0.082
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 0.0% 42.44 77.78% 0.143 -0.6264 0.187
Start of Game Growth 19 0.0% 38.16 68.42% 0.143 -0.2951 0.163
Unlimited Undo 23 0.0% 31.52 56.52% 0.17 0.1047 0.255
Using Tokens but Not Events 28 12.5% 25.29 60.71% -0.527 -0.5699 -0.139

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 79 13.76 1.27%
II 21 30.19 66.67%
III 30 34.82 93.33%
IV 16 38.63 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 77
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)