Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 27.0 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 39.33 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 50.0% 47.45 0.489 63.64% -0.21 0.7887
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 66.67% 22.67 -12.711 33.33% -0.561 0.8212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 14.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 8.33% 28.23 15.737 92.31% 0.347 0.5626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 22 13.64% 36.36 -1.925 95.45% 0.019 -0.0507
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 27.27% 52.45 4.517 90.91% 0.409 0.3261
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 26.67% 36.44 -0.245 62.5% -0.157 0.0583
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 22 40.91% 45.23 12.052 81.82% 1.331 1.5559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 20.0% 17.4 -1.07 20.0% -0.067 0.6049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 55.56% 39.33 55.56%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 42.86% 41.0 4.365 100.0% 0.561 0.7707
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 25.0% 28.0 7.264 50.0% 0.193 0.4803
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 30.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 26.32% 39.26 8.621 47.37% 0.141 1.3593
The Kingdom of England 4 7 22 19.05% 34.77 0.631 36.36% -0.52 0.7603
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 25.0% 44.89 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 121 17.36% 58.42 3.247 66.94% -0.489 1.5059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 0.0% 48.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 33 45.45% 53.97 9.515 75.76% 0.617 2.0141
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 0.0% 41.43 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 0.0% 73.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 77 41.56% 57.48 9.13 57.14% -0.136 1.3403
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 16.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 37.5% 30.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 50.0% 25.33 -13.449 33.33% -0.464 -0.0852
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 50.0% 49.44 77.78%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 44.44% 41.33 9.29 77.78% 0.236 1.0974
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 53.0 -2.991 50.0% -0.378 0.3173
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 98 51.02% 53.76 8.393 62.24% 0.432 1.5733
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 43 6.98% 66.28 1.916 86.05% -0.163 -0.067
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16 18.75% 37.06 -4.355 62.5% -0.704 -0.595
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 20 15.0% 40.05 -11.826 70.0% -0.415 0.0521
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 9 44.44% 46.33 -8.77 55.56% -0.109 0.5109
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 38.1% 49.41 -10.289 63.64% -0.4 0.5978
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 40.0% 47.07 -9.929 86.67% -0.341 0.3191
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 50.0% 53.0 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 9 0.0% 63.78 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 0.0% 55.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 44 47.73% 54.93 6.941 61.36% -0.305 1.6771

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 66 42.86% 35.18 60.61% 0.273 0.384 -0.765
Dahan Insurrection 4 29 20.69% 47.24 55.17% -0.018 -0.2531 0.202
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% -0.179
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 155 0.65% 56.56 76.77% 0.149 -0.625 0.838
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 0.0% 20.33 66.67% -0.325 0.4481
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.19
Second Wave 0 141 31.43% 24.81 85.82% 0.448 0.5282 -0.409
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 100.0% 30.17 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 21 40.24 66.67% -0.01 0.1495 0.55
Aid From Lesser Spirits 19 46.32 73.68% 0.176 0.0896 1.3
All Things Weaken 17 33.35 58.82% -0.378 -0.0356 -0.093
Attenuated Essence 5 23.6 20.0% -0.493
Back Against the Wall 9 36.33 44.44% 0.182 0.2569 -0.469
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 57.67 100.0% 0.116 0.307 0.182
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 35.75 75.0% 0.068
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 33.62 61.54% 0.196 0.5692
Downward Spiral 19 30.11 57.89% -0.466 -0.3295 0.35
Erosion of Will 15 46.53 80.0% 0.597
Intensifying Exploitation 7 49.57 71.43% -0.095 0.1438 0.301
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 41.5 57.14% 0.236 -0.2959 -0.768
Memory Fades to Dust 28 34.79 71.43% 0.181 0.4621 0.322
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 37.24 47.06% 0.614 0.7672 0.05
Promising Farmlands 18 43.72 66.67% 0.025 0.3716 -0.066
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 68.5 100.0% 0.084 0.279 0.102
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 25.83 66.67% -0.041
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 38.94 93.75% 0.046 -0.6949 1.274
The Border of Life and Death 4 47.5 100.0% 0.031 -0.4019 0.426
Thriving Communities 20 41.25 60.0% 0.421 0.7196 0.059
Thriving Crops 1 26.0 0.0% -0.654
Unnatural Proliferation 22 42.41 72.73% -0.02 0.1249 -0.478
Untended Land Crumbles 21 31.62 57.14% -0.745 -0.4456 -0.24

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1035 25.42% 34.37 74.4% -0.365 0.6289 0.271
B 1015 25.84% 34.76 74.48% -0.146 0.7724 -0.177
C 1046 24.75% 35.25 76.1% 0.716 1.4583 0.429
D 1019 23.41% 34.25 74.19% -0.055 0.8966 -1.031
E 976 25.24% 33.69 75.41% -0.837 -0.0566 0.131
F 885 25.99% 32.13 75.14% 0.076 0.969 0.112
G 615 25.33% 35.21 76.59% -0.122 0.7335 -0.073
H 691 24.56% 40.11 76.85% 0.8 1.6483 0.409

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 31 0.0% 38.45 100.0% -0.124 0.5056 0.647
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57 7.14% 36.18 91.23% 0.412 -0.2229 0.647
Start of Game Growth 94 14.29% 42.97 80.85% -0.308 -0.697 0.065
Unlimited Undo 107 3.95% 40.04 85.98% 0.072 0.1165 0.332
Using Tokens but Not Events 312 6.41% 37.81 77.24% -1.216 -1.2426 0.49

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 243 17.67 14.81%
II 380 30.7 81.32%
III 454 34.75 95.37%
IV 172 38.22 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 424
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 295
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 171
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 135
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 81
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 22
Lose: Blight pool ran out 49
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)