Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 30.0 -1.528 100.0% 0.079 0.4485
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 39.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 0.0% 75.2 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 34.0 4.674 50.0% 0.009 1.384
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 14.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8 0.0% 25.25 -5.328 87.5% -0.251 -0.3687
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 38.65 -0.925 100.0% 0.218 0.065
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16 6.25% 60.06 9.595 93.75% 0.262 0.3712
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 28.57% 44.86 1.997 85.71% -0.44 -0.0405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 54.55% 38.73 8.963 63.64% 0.085 0.3927
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 19.0 -4.701 0.0% -0.496 0.4432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 56.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 50.0% 23.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 33.33% 31.67 -2.371 66.67% -0.243 0.313
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 40.0% 34.0 -0.5 60.0% -0.166 0.8681
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 28.57% 43.5 9.8 50.0% 0.148 1.6417
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 37.5% 42.22 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 0.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 69 24.64% 56.54 12.841 59.42% 0.365 2.6761
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 0.0% 48.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 21 28.57% 51.0 61.9%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 0.0% 74.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 66.67 23.525 66.67% 0.029 1.7806
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 44.44% 56.85 2.788 55.56% -0.454 1.6655
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 37.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 30.4 -0.464 40.0% -0.451 0.5469
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 20.0% 37.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 33.33% 57.67 4.024 100.0% 0.201 1.1914
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54 59.26% 50.54 9.24 53.7% -0.352 1.2967
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 50.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 27.27% 47.64 8.784 81.82% 0.022 0.2622
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 12 8.33% 51.33 5.932 91.67% 0.096 0.4931
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 37.5% 52.13 8.35 62.5% 0.051 0.9157
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 15 46.67% 63.0 -4.206 80.0% -0.303 0.764
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8 12.5% 63.75 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 66.67% 56.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 0.0% 64.71 13.898 100.0% 0.096 1.4125
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 33.33% 75.5 16.866 91.67% 0.263 2.2418

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 57 47.5% 36.42 56.14% 0.273 0.73 -0.976
Dahan Insurrection 4 14 14.29% 74.93 92.86% 0.065 0.0852 0.533
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% -0.275
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 98 1.02% 53.76 76.53% 0.195 0.2362 0.418
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.128
Second Wave 0 89 23.86% 27.09 92.13% 0.445 0.9067 -0.438
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 30.8 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12 45.67 58.33% -0.347 1.3836 0.605
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 44.0 66.67% 0.131 1.707 1.14
All Things Weaken 15 33.93 60.0% 0.088 1.9657 -0.191
Back Against the Wall 8 36.88 37.5% -0.439 1.1974 -0.627
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 32.17 33.33% -0.347 1.496
Downward Spiral 11 39.36 72.73% 0.486 2.1837 0.309
Erosion of Will 13 45.54 76.92% 0.059 1.9596 0.375
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 35.3 40.0% 0.201 0.7015 -0.983
Memory Fades to Dust 18 32.94 72.22% 0.037 1.9132 0.284
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 40.55 54.55% -0.496 1.2085 -0.017
Promising Farmlands 13 37.31 61.54% 0.137 2.0128 0.13
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 62.0 100.0% 0.124 1.5945 0.141
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 45.57 85.71% 0.372 0.5823 1.246
Thriving Communities 9 37.89 55.56% -0.278 1.5927 -0.412
Unnatural Proliferation 11 40.36 63.64% 0.117 1.8711 -0.22
Untended Land Crumbles 14 35.0 64.29% -0.076

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 597 25.22% 36.26 80.57% -0.727 0.0508 0.318
B 605 25.91% 36.42 80.17% 0.196 0.899 -0.05
C 614 24.83% 36.74 81.76% -0.108 0.42 0.04
D 618 23.99% 36.77 80.91% -0.042 0.6932 -0.587
E 587 24.69% 35.83 83.3% 0.199 0.783 0.003
F 549 24.29% 35.22 83.06% 0.142 0.8493 0.058
G 383 23.86% 36.16 82.25% 0.006 0.6475 -0.001
H 413 23.06% 40.07 80.39% 0.418 1.0634 0.3

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 34.9 100.0% 0.301 2.3761 0.371
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 44 5.88% 36.82 95.45% -0.238 -1.2972 0.371
Start of Game Growth 70 12.2% 44.96 88.57% -0.184 -0.6063 0.479
Unlimited Undo 76 6.38% 43.26 94.74% 0.122 -0.293 -0.213
Using Tokens but Not Events 179 4.0% 40.04 89.39% 0.887 1.0024 0.695

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 108 22.63 22.22%
II 250 31.12 86.0%
III 288 34.7 94.79%
IV 110 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 267
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 202
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 110
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 66
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 20
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)