Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 78 36.07% 31.15 53.85% -0.502 -0.2139 -0.811
Dahan Insurrection 4 31 19.35% 48.94 58.06% 0.329
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 5 0.0% 30.2 80.0% -0.149
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 173 0.58% 54.54 76.3% 0.449 -0.1979 1.157
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 0.0% 20.33 66.67%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 66.67% 23.33 66.67% 0.207 0.2832 -0.32
Second Wave 0 188 29.41% 24.47 83.51% 1.596 1.6261 -0.425
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 30.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 100.0% 30.17 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 22 39.32 63.64% 0.679
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 44.63 70.83% 0.49 0.4362 1.373
All Things Weaken 21 33.81 57.14% -0.119
Attenuated Essence 6 29.83 33.33% 0.609 0.6927 -0.278
Back Against the Wall 11 36.73 45.45% 0.191 0.2384 -0.45
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 48.0 100.0% 0.423 0.6261 0.191
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 41.4 80.0% 0.055
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 37.53 66.67% 0.248 0.6574
Downward Spiral 21 29.14 57.14% -0.299 -0.1712 0.163
Erosion of Will 17 45.94 82.35% 0.171 0.4539 0.635
Intensifying Exploitation 11 36.73 45.45% -0.322 -0.0745 -0.156
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 16 39.44 50.0% -0.093 -0.6087 -0.85
Memory Fades to Dust 39 31.13 64.1% 0.244 0.4806 0.306
Power Corrodes the Spirit 22 41.0 59.09% 0.865 1.0827 0.495
Promising Farmlands 21 37.48 57.14% -0.065 0.23 -0.056
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 45.67 66.67% 0.101
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 25.83 66.67% 0.079
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 37.82 94.12% 1.234
The Border of Life and Death 5 48.2 100.0% 0.411
Thriving Communities 31 36.06 48.39% -0.193 0.1457 0.208
Thriving Crops 3 35.67 33.33% -0.065 -0.1078 -0.369
Unnatural Proliferation 28 36.36 64.29% -0.679 -0.5388 -0.802
Untended Land Crumbles 24 30.96 54.17% -0.037

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1282 25.3% 32.16 70.51% 0.283 1.1445 0.253
B 1234 25.98% 32.26 70.18% -0.171 0.6456 -0.3
C 1283 25.12% 33.17 72.41% 0.3 0.9788 0.34
D 1256 23.63% 32.02 70.22% -0.603 0.2013 -0.865
E 1196 25.21% 31.91 71.82% 0.402 1.0701 0.249
F 1097 25.91% 29.64 70.56% -0.246 0.5528 0.023
G 764 25.76% 32.46 70.68% -0.275 0.5505 -0.103
H 844 24.73% 37.57 72.87% 0.24 1.0124 0.427

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 37.25 96.88% 0.689
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 59 6.9% 34.95 88.14% -0.155 -0.7696 0.689
Start of Game Growth 98 13.64% 41.21 77.55% -0.942 -1.5234 0.127
Unlimited Undo 126 3.19% 39.24 81.75% 0.114 0.1575 0.48
Using Tokens but Not Events 360 7.01% 34.51 75.0% -0.413 -0.4706 0.217

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 349 15.74 10.89%
II 440 30.48 80.0%
III 542 34.79 94.28%
IV 206 38.41 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 38
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 501
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 336
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 205
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 239
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 91
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 63
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)