Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 30.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 39.5 -2.846 75.0% -0.53 0.3475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 46.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4 0.0% 71.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 0.306 14.29% -0.344 1.9162
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 6 0.0% 29.0 -1.553 100.0% 0.139 0.3835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 20.0% 44.9 5.881 100.0% 0.394 0.2673
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10 10.0% 65.2 2.332 90.0% 0.046 0.1616
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 0.0% 47.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 60.0% 36.8 6.713 60.0% 0.065 0.5308
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 56.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 50.0% 23.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 -1.77 100.0% 0.017 0.6266
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 46.0 4.781 100.0% 0.073 1.1998
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 36.36% 43.64 3.087 54.55% -0.397 1.3469
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8 42.86% 40.25 3.058 25.0% -0.344 1.2349
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 49.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 38 18.42% 55.39 6.827 52.63% -0.857 1.4422
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 0.0% 48.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 27.78% 54.28 7.831 72.22% 0.266 2.6498
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 78.5 21.572 100.0% 0.036 2.5117
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 0.0% 51.5 -1.32 50.0% -0.215 1.8632
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 37 35.14% 58.97 12.876 56.76% -0.249 2.1178
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 -0.545 100.0% 0.118 0.9627
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 27.67 -5.155 33.33% -0.598 0.2719
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 16.109 100.0% 0.053 1.4839
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 20 65.0% 48.4 7.084 50.0% -1.031 0.6676
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 -8.915 50.0% -0.549 -0.3823
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 14.29% 45.29 -2.371 85.71% -0.05 0.4036
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 12.5% 48.13 2.04 87.5% -0.153 0.1567
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 16.67% 55.17 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 53.85% 65.08 10.315 84.62% 0.097 1.2891
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 14.827 100.0% 0.122 0.0657
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 0.0% 69.57 3.177 100.0% 0.173 0.9473
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 44.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 0.0% 59.8 5.535 100.0% 0.088 1.4267
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 16.109 100.0% 0.053 1.4378
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 100.0% 74.0 10.485 100.0% 0.105 2.1236

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 29 51.85% 40.28 48.28% 0.341 0.5986 -0.474
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 16.67% 76.58 91.67% 0.014 0.427 0.672
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 34.0 50.0% -0.16 0.3261 -0.232
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 72 0.0% 50.19 72.22% -0.63 -0.3242 0.467
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
Second Wave 0 42 33.33% 24.67 88.1% 0.586 1.1514
Ward the Shores 2 4 100.0% 30.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 47.25 62.5% -0.073 1.8301 0.356
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8 37.75 62.5% -0.046 1.6839 0.32
All Things Weaken 10 34.0 50.0% -0.928 1.0579 0.052
Back Against the Wall 2 23.0 50.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 27.0 25.0% -0.53 1.5201
Downward Spiral 7 26.57 57.14% -0.347 1.6456 -0.307
Erosion of Will 7 43.0 85.71% -0.048 2.0354 -0.005
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 36.75 50.0% 0.105 0.5457 -0.769
Memory Fades to Dust 8 26.0 87.5% 0.093 2.1769 0.444
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 44.71 57.14% -1.072 0.8668 -0.026
Promising Farmlands 11 31.55 54.55% -0.276 1.7703 -0.442
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 3 49.67 100.0% 0.682 1.1071 1.131
Thriving Communities 5 27.0 60.0% 0.091 2.0744
Unnatural Proliferation 8 34.88 50.0% -0.247 1.7179 -0.576
Untended Land Crumbles 9 35.44 77.78% -0.204 1.7892 0.412

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 354 24.86% 35.26 80.79% -0.775 0.022 0.571
B 361 25.14% 36.1 79.5% 0.128 0.8716 -0.48
C 373 24.04% 35.56 80.16% -0.379 0.1898 0.105
D 372 23.56% 36.28 80.91% 0.085 0.8811 -0.455
E 355 23.5% 35.18 83.1% 0.13 0.7766 -0.082
F 327 24.53% 34.31 85.02% 0.374 1.098 0.327
G 259 22.75% 37.52 79.92% 0.208 0.9396 0.007
H 247 24.9% 40.19 78.54% 0.297 1.0094 0.067

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 34.67 100.0% 0.068 2.1976
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 0.0% 38.55 100.0% 0.277 0.1348
Start of Game Growth 43 11.76% 50.63 88.37% 0.386 -0.3749 0.636
Unlimited Undo 43 2.94% 46.86 95.35% 0.319 -0.2851 -0.447
Using Tokens but Not Events 91 2.44% 41.11 84.62% 0.184 0.0279 0.267

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 62 22.56 12.9%
II 158 30.98 86.08%
III 173 34.53 95.95%
IV 67 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 162
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 125
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 67
Lose: Adversary condition 41
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)