Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 17.0 33.33%
Blitz 0 136 32.77% 25.57 33.82% 0.189 0.4392 -0.902
Dahan Insurrection 4 41 17.07% 40.76 48.78% -0.091 -0.3397 0.397
Despicable Theft 2 11 18.18% 10.82 27.27% -1.068 -0.606
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 22.17 58.33% -0.142 0.5607 -0.177
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 237 1.27% 46.71 67.09% 0.06 -0.4925 0.782
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 33.33% 15.44 55.56% -0.076 0.5475
Rituals of Terror 3 3 66.67% 23.33 66.67% -0.381
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 0.0% 41.0 75.0% 0.358 1.2798 0.546
Second Wave 0 283 29.43% 24.04 81.98% 1.378 1.4952 -0.131
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 25.8 80.0% 0.489 1.2301 -0.081
Ward the Shores 2 12 33.33% 28.25 83.33% 0.474 1.5581

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 35.33 59.26% -0.078 0.1717 0.697
Aid From Lesser Spirits 29 44.07 68.97% -0.073 -0.1912 1.398
All Things Weaken 29 31.45 55.17% -0.534 -0.1965 0.105
Attenuated Essence 12 40.58 50.0% -0.289 -0.262 0.325
Back Against the Wall 24 41.67 62.5% 0.371 0.3719 0.053
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 38.14 64.29% -0.56 -0.343 0.565
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 36.18 54.55% -0.248 -0.267 0.216
Disintegrating Ecosystem 21 35.0 57.14% -0.958 -0.5651 0.879
Downward Spiral 30 26.03 46.67% 0.312 0.4199 -0.306
Erosion of Will 27 34.37 66.67% -0.573 -0.2205 0.466
Intensifying Exploitation 21 33.57 52.38% 0.862 1.1075 0.206
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 23 39.09 60.87% 0.471 -0.0532 -0.445
Memory Fades to Dust 52 26.71 55.77% -0.097 0.1503 0.075
Power Corrodes the Spirit 27 36.74 55.56% 0.055 0.277 0.442
Promising Farmlands 29 35.48 58.62% 0.193 0.4763 -0.446
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 30.27 54.55% -0.2 -0.1234 -0.101
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 27.86 71.43% 0.084
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 25 30.32 76.0% -0.3 -0.9948 0.618
The Border of Life and Death 10 36.9 70.0% 0.589 -0.0122 0.428
Thriving Communities 48 31.81 52.08% 0.402 0.7588 0.653
Thriving Crops 6 40.17 50.0% 0.26 0.0642 -0.209
Unnatural Proliferation 43 34.16 55.81% -0.699 -0.5372 -0.915
Untended Land Crumbles 39 33.59 48.72% 0.007 0.2381 0.125

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1958 24.74% 28.85 62.92% -0.536 0.4684 -0.054
B 1885 25.27% 29.03 63.5% 0.222 1.1412 -0.068
C 1938 24.62% 29.73 65.27% -0.151 0.5839 0.322
D 1921 23.32% 28.46 62.99% -0.025 0.953 -0.562
E 1843 24.38% 28.63 64.95% 0.787 1.6064 0.165
F 1690 25.27% 27.03 64.38% -0.315 0.5587 -0.283
G 1236 24.61% 29.19 62.78% 0.161 0.9704 -0.033
H 1360 24.8% 32.74 64.71% 0.336 1.1506 0.509

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 37 0.0% 36.22 94.59% -0.6 0.1074 1.021
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 83 5.77% 33.89 81.93% 0.62 0.0351 1.021
Start of Game Growth 136 10.68% 35.99 66.91% -0.413 -0.9271 0.003
Unlimited Undo 199 3.61% 33.67 67.84% -0.171 -0.2802 0.215
Using Tokens but Not Events 508 8.07% 30.65 70.08% -0.182 -0.2078 0.319

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 677 13.33 6.79%
II 628 30.1 75.48%
III 769 34.83 94.28%
IV 285 38.67 99.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 46
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 708
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 456
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 283
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 552
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 130
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 35
Win: Scenario condition 30
Lose: Blight pool ran out 97
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)