Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 66 42.86% 35.18 60.61% 0.429 0.5605 -0.829
Dahan Insurrection 4 31 19.35% 48.94 58.06% 0.31 0.0547 0.29
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% -0.148
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 157 0.64% 56.24 76.43% -0.078 -0.8496 0.896
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 0.0% 20.33 66.67% 0.206 1.1412
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.194
Second Wave 0 156 30.32% 24.22 84.62% 1.113 1.1984 -0.393
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.147 0.9351
Ward the Shores 2 6 100.0% 30.17 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 22 39.32 63.64% -0.171 -0.0413 0.556
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 44.0 71.43% 0.182 0.0638 1.33
All Things Weaken 20 34.65 60.0% 0.049 0.3564 -0.07
Attenuated Essence 5 23.6 20.0% -0.478
Back Against the Wall 10 35.2 40.0% -0.257 -0.2276 -0.521
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 57.67 100.0% 0.198
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 41.4 80.0% 0.195 0.2649 0.074
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 35.93 64.29% 0.352 0.7282
Downward Spiral 19 30.11 57.89% -0.705 -0.5396 0.396
Erosion of Will 16 46.88 81.25% 0.727 0.9417 0.623
Intensifying Exploitation 9 41.78 55.56% -0.721 -0.48 0.043
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 40.47 53.33% -0.143 -0.7242 -0.842
Memory Fades to Dust 31 32.9 67.74% 0.237 0.5296 0.286
Power Corrodes the Spirit 20 40.55 55.0% 0.768 0.9288 0.214
Promising Farmlands 19 41.42 63.16% -0.367 -0.0708 -0.056
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 45.67 66.67% -0.36 -0.2716 0.094
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 25.83 66.67% 0.026
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 37.82 94.12% 0.255 -0.4562 1.298
The Border of Life and Death 5 48.2 100.0% 0.106 -0.3735 0.425
Thriving Communities 29 35.66 48.28% -0.275 0.0247 0.31
Thriving Crops 2 53.5 50.0% 0.153 0.0513 -0.381
Unnatural Proliferation 23 41.43 69.57% -0.166 0.0033 -0.461
Untended Land Crumbles 22 33.77 59.09% 0.232 0.4898 -0.06

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1121 26.28% 33.66 72.79% -0.078 1.0642 0.262
B 1092 26.81% 33.96 72.89% -0.03 1.0248 -0.216
C 1137 25.72% 34.49 74.41% -0.225 0.6632 0.4
D 1102 24.42% 33.51 72.69% 0.369 1.4229 -0.998
E 1061 25.89% 33.05 73.8% -0.165 0.7394 0.119
F 956 26.61% 31.16 73.12% -0.167 0.8368 0.082
G 665 26.45% 34.21 74.29% -0.416 0.5523 -0.09
H 728 24.96% 39.8 76.37% 0.799 1.7915 0.503

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 37.25 96.88% -0.349 0.3144 0.609
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 58 7.14% 35.55 89.66% -0.161 -0.7838 0.609
Start of Game Growth 95 14.29% 42.52 80.0% -0.217 -0.6292 0.026
Unlimited Undo 113 3.7% 39.16 83.19% -0.422 -0.5172 0.506
Using Tokens but Not Events 329 7.41% 36.62 76.6% -0.351 -0.2756 0.456

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 275 16.77 13.09%
II 398 30.59 81.16%
III 485 34.74 93.81%
IV 191 38.3 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 36
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 446
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 307
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 190
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 164
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 86
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)