Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 30.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 39.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 -5.081 50.0% -0.607 0.3703
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4 0.0% 71.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 14.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 6 0.0% 29.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 18.18% 43.64 3.236 100.0% 0.456 0.1815
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10 10.0% 65.2 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 0.0% 48.0 4.905 100.0% 0.026 0.4928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 35.78 1.225 55.56% -0.595 -0.1033
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 56.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 50.0% 23.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 46.0 -3.075 100.0% -0.547 0.5889
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 28.57% 43.5 -0.961 50.0% -0.175 1.5133
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 37.5% 42.22 9.956 33.33% 0.189 1.7486
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 49.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 53 24.53% 54.04 5.257 52.83% -0.695 1.8422
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 0.0% 48.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 21 28.57% 51.0 -4.33 61.9% -0.625 1.6601
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 78.5 10.23 100.0% 0.124 2.513
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 0.0% 51.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 45 37.78% 56.64 4.222 53.33% -1.067 1.0878
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 33.0 1.753 100.0% 0.101 0.2316
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 24.0 -1.817 0.0% -0.303 0.7019
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 20.0% 37.8 3.382 60.0% 0.157 1.0102
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 33.33% 57.67 11.829 100.0% 0.29 1.6379
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 39 53.85% 49.08 3.405 48.72% -0.868 0.6067
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 30.0% 49.5 5.141 80.0% 0.084 0.4235
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 10.0% 51.8 11.56 90.0% 0.573 0.9285
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 28.57% 51.71 -5.709 57.14% -0.192 0.5823
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 14 50.0% 64.93 6.054 85.71% 0.024 1.1904
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8 12.5% 63.75 0.935 87.5% -0.263 0.6878
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 66.67% 56.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 0.0% 59.8 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 33.33% 77.5 10.956 100.0% 0.206 2.0242

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 46 46.15% 38.72 45.65% -0.618 -0.3618 -0.761
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 16.67% 76.58 91.67% 0.68
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0% -0.353 0.1918
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% 0.101 0.7124 -0.27
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81 1.23% 51.44 74.07% 0.175 0.3694 0.531
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.059 0.3041
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.547 -1.3828 -0.138
Second Wave 0 67 25.37% 26.06 91.04% 0.5 1.0729
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0% 0.157 0.9029
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 30.8 100.0% 0.007 1.0617

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 47.25 62.5% 0.444 2.3537 0.652
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 44.67 66.67% 0.174 1.8592 0.865
All Things Weaken 13 34.85 53.85% -0.878 1.1213 0.031
Back Against the Wall 5 33.4 40.0% -0.533 1.4148 -0.544
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 37.8 40.0%
Downward Spiral 8 28.63 62.5% 0.353 2.3152 -0.297
Erosion of Will 10 43.2 70.0% -0.552 1.555 0.137
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 35.3 40.0% -0.229 0.3878 -0.971
Memory Fades to Dust 16 31.19 68.75% -1.471 0.586 0.504
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 39.89 55.56% -0.051 1.9281 -0.112
Promising Farmlands 11 31.55 54.55% -0.547 1.5555 -0.512
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 45.5 83.33% 0.053 0.3821 1.275
Thriving Communities 5 27.0 60.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 8 34.88 50.0% -0.447
Untended Land Crumbles 9 35.44 77.78% 0.416

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 462 24.55% 35.73 79.65% -0.08 0.6792 0.267
B 475 25.11% 35.94 78.74% -0.428 0.2486 -0.429
C 473 23.86% 36.27 80.76% 0.916 1.4414 0.243
D 488 23.37% 36.5 80.12% 0.369 1.0958 -0.495
E 460 23.61% 35.38 82.83% 0.114 0.6738 -0.069
F 432 24.58% 34.82 82.41% -1.039 -0.3496 0.158
G 316 23.23% 36.9 81.65% 0.246 0.9413 0.248
H 322 24.52% 39.84 77.64% -0.015 0.6462 0.113

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 32.2 100.0% 0.261 2.3796
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 29 0.0% 36.1 100.0% 0.261 -0.1084
Start of Game Growth 50 11.43% 47.52 90.0% 0.261 -0.3621 0.601
Unlimited Undo 54 5.13% 45.13 96.3% 0.426 -0.2044 -0.441
Using Tokens but Not Events 120 3.81% 40.18 86.67% 0.486 0.5295 0.453

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 85 22.62 15.29%
II 195 31.05 85.64%
III 222 34.62 95.05%
IV 92 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 207
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 155
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 92
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)