Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 27.0 -3.734 80.0% -0.212 0.0509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 39.33 6.118 83.33% 0.4 0.7459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 9 37.5% 51.44 0.464 66.67% -0.595 0.3967
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 34.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 13.71 14.29% 0.031 2.0435
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 10 11.11% 25.4 5.626 90.0% 0.178 0.2632
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 19 15.79% 38.68 7.551 100.0% 0.09 -0.0053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 21 23.81% 53.14 1.327 90.48% 0.357 0.346
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 28.57% 44.86 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 46.15% 40.38 10.145 69.23% 0.359 0.5616
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 19.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 50.0% 36.25 -4.882 50.0% -0.597 0.7408
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 60.0% 40.4 0.174 100.0% 0.159 0.4249
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 25.0% 28.0 -4.985 50.0% -0.371 -0.187
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 42.86% 33.0 2.99 57.14% -0.124 0.6132
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 25.0% 39.38 -10.067 43.75% -0.495 0.6441
The Kingdom of England 4 7 12 27.27% 38.67 8.384 25.0% -0.338 0.7079
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 0.0% 45.0 -5.793 42.86% -0.096 1.5443
The Kingdom of England 6 11 95 17.89% 59.08 5.113 65.26% -0.105 1.937
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 0.0% 48.8 7.551 80.0% 0.09 1.1635
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 25 36.0% 52.32 9.568 68.0% 0.559 1.8473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 0.0% 56.0 -9.405 75.0% -0.299 1.1027
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 66.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 62 38.71% 56.24 8.099 56.45% -0.472 0.8716
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 16.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 0.0% 32.25 -4.941 50.0% -0.558 -0.1276
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 30.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 50.0% 44.88 8.524 75.0% 0.328 0.7139
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 25.0% 56.5 10.04 100.0% 0.211 0.8294
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 76 52.63% 52.57 12.138 60.53% 0.706 1.9813
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 27 11.11% 68.3 6.805 88.89% 0.574 0.6006
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 21.43% 37.43 -9.835 64.29% -0.87 -0.6473
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 17 17.65% 44.35 -3.394 76.47% -0.639 -0.2117
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 37.5% 52.13 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 41.18% 58.88 -12.433 76.47% -0.413 0.4743
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 42.86% 50.43 3.856 92.86% 0.69 1.3307
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 50.0% 53.0 13.999 75.0% 0.507 0.9327
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 0.0% 64.25 7.239 100.0% 0.129 1.2431
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 47.62% 65.33 2.66 80.95% -0.44 1.4001

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 64 44.68% 35.31 59.38% 0.635 0.8323 -0.82
Dahan Insurrection 4 21 9.52% 51.38 61.9% -1.031 -1.4729 0.155
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% -0.246
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 129 0.78% 55.47 76.74% -0.468 -1.1126 0.693
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.154
Second Wave 0 113 30.36% 25.96 89.38% 0.651 0.7167 -0.45
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 30.8 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 14 42.86 57.14% 0.052 0.2946 0.589
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 44.41 70.59% 1.155
All Things Weaken 16 34.25 62.5% 0.258 0.6502 -0.222
Attenuated Essence 4 29.5 25.0% -0.923 -0.8162 -0.607
Back Against the Wall 8 36.88 37.5% -0.476
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 26.0 66.67% 0.111 0.3216
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10 32.5 50.0% 0.658 1.0813
Downward Spiral 14 32.79 64.29% -0.058 0.1771 0.368
Erosion of Will 14 47.93 78.57% 0.119 0.4286 0.476
Intensifying Exploitation 4 43.0 75.0% -0.056 0.2316 0.183
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 35.3 40.0% -0.946
Memory Fades to Dust 22 32.41 72.73% 0.038 0.3741 0.237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 37.23 46.15% -0.6 -0.3792 -0.179
Promising Farmlands 16 41.63 68.75% 0.406 0.8589 0.049
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 28.5 75.0% -0.144 0.2554 0.165
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 38.54 92.31% 0.408 -0.3025 1.394
The Border of Life and Death 3 41.67 100.0% 0.175 -0.1604 0.227
Thriving Communities 12 39.58 58.33% -0.803 -0.4404 -0.294
Thriving Crops 1 26.0 0.0% -0.637
Unnatural Proliferation 12 43.33 66.67% -0.23
Untended Land Crumbles 16 34.69 62.5% -0.265 0.017 -0.165

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 779 25.37% 35.86 77.92% -0.373 0.3675 0.219
B 785 25.96% 36.07 77.58% 0.35 1.0763 0.122
C 800 24.55% 36.39 79.0% 0.21 0.7918 0.13
D 784 23.61% 35.9 77.81% 0.099 0.8107 -0.752
E 752 24.59% 35.07 79.79% 0.037 0.6021 0.033
F 689 25.04% 33.48 78.96% -0.817 -0.1472 -0.008
G 468 24.24% 35.41 80.34% -0.271 0.3809 -0.013
H 540 23.95% 40.36 79.26% 0.822 1.3921 0.353

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 34.9 100.0% 0.397
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 50 4.35% 35.7 94.0% 0.506 -0.1118 0.397
Start of Game Growth 78 10.2% 42.72 87.18% 0.202 -0.1462 0.44
Unlimited Undo 92 4.76% 40.78 89.13% 0.222 0.2153 -0.058
Using Tokens but Not Events 233 4.41% 40.7 86.27% 0.077 0.0671 0.847

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 160 20.4 18.13%
II 314 31.01 84.08%
III 362 34.76 95.3%
IV 128 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 29
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 339
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 251
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 128
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 50
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)