Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 27.0 -5.339 80.0% -0.26 -0.0497
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 39.2 3.524 80.0% 0.362 0.7963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 9 37.5% 51.44 -4.794 66.67% -0.753 0.3054
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 34.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 13.146 14.29% 0.18 2.1204
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 12.5% 24.56 -10.767 88.89% -0.378 -0.2798
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 19 15.79% 38.68 1.31 100.0% 0.539 0.4469
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 20.0% 55.8 4.801 95.0% 0.434 0.3709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 28.57% 44.86 4.804 85.71% 0.216 0.4771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 50.0% 39.75 5.109 66.67% 0.064 0.127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 19.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 66.67% 48.33 0.17 66.67% 0.163 1.4456
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4 75.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 25.0% 28.0 -4.284 50.0% -0.299 -0.0849
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 42.86% 33.0 3.542 57.14% -0.112 0.6409
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 25.0% 39.38 -1.937 43.75% -0.12 1.0414
The Kingdom of England 4 7 12 27.27% 38.67 5.453 25.0% -0.369 0.6462
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 0.0% 45.0 -5.719 42.86% -0.242 1.2999
The Kingdom of England 6 11 84 20.24% 58.26 7.374 63.1% -0.015 2.0045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 2.725 100.0% 0.207 0.5602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 0.0% 48.8 7.139 80.0% 0.096 1.1843
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 24 33.33% 52.04 9.325 66.67% 0.261 1.6485
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 0.0% 56.0 -9.612 75.0% -0.299 1.1337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 66.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 59 40.68% 56.51 8.244 55.93% -0.317 1.0392
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 16.5 -8.829 50.0% -0.339 -0.426
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 0.0% 32.25 -2.057 50.0% -0.406 0.027
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 30.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 50.0% 44.88 7.897 75.0% 0.511 0.8431
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 25.0% 56.5 9.557 100.0% 0.128 0.6917
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 66 56.06% 51.27 6.42 56.06% -0.617 0.6605
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 17 11.76% 67.24 5.958 88.24% -0.232 -0.2429
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 25.0% 43.67 -13.447 75.0% -0.466 -0.2343
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 17 17.65% 44.35 -5.017 76.47% -0.52 -0.1741
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 37.5% 52.13 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 43.75% 62.56 10.329 81.25% 0.254 1.0589
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 42.86% 50.43 2.161 92.86% 0.489 1.0926
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 66.67% 56.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 0.0% 64.25 8.806 100.0% 0.113 1.2185
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 18 44.44% 71.83 9.386 88.89% -0.037 1.9202

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.339 -0.4178
Blitz 0 63 45.65% 35.87 60.32% 1.177 1.3236 -0.808
Dahan Insurrection 4 19 10.53% 56.79 68.42% -1.238 -1.4446 0.285
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% -0.247
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 117 0.85% 54.79 76.07% -0.622 -1.2287 0.547
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.131
Second Wave 0 103 29.41% 26.23 89.32% 0.105 0.1681 -0.474
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 30.8 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 14 42.86 57.14% -0.188 0.0834 0.558
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 44.41 70.59% 0.051 0.0893 1.159
All Things Weaken 16 34.25 62.5% 0.216 0.6765 -0.107
Attenuated Essence 3 39.33 33.33% -0.367 -0.1611 0.085
Back Against the Wall 8 36.88 37.5% 0.431 0.5931 -0.492
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 26.0 66.67% -0.405 -0.1006
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 36.11 55.56% 0.218 0.7447
Downward Spiral 13 35.31 69.23% 0.289 0.642 0.359
Erosion of Will 13 45.54 76.92% 0.38
Intensifying Exploitation 3 34.33 66.67% 0.252 0.639 0.085
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 35.3 40.0% -0.931
Memory Fades to Dust 20 33.95 70.0% -0.045 0.4366 0.28
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 37.23 46.15% -0.777 -0.4725 -0.119
Promising Farmlands 15 40.47 66.67% 0.147 0.7334 0.013
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 30.0 66.67% 0.075 0.6088 0.207
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 39.5 91.67% 0.251 -0.427 1.404
The Border of Life and Death 3 41.67 100.0% 0.352 0.2225 0.237
Thriving Communities 12 39.58 58.33% -0.941 -0.4475 -0.271
Thriving Crops 1 26.0 0.0% -0.212 -0.1239 -0.561
Unnatural Proliferation 12 43.33 66.67% 0.151 0.4474 -0.149
Untended Land Crumbles 14 35.0 64.29% -0.07

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 714 26.31% 36.34 78.71% 0.068 0.9082 0.289
B 722 26.72% 36.44 78.25% 0.632 1.4103 0.179
C 734 25.56% 36.63 79.7% -0.008 0.6464 0.032
D 723 24.53% 36.39 78.56% -0.659 0.1402 -0.77
E 689 25.26% 35.48 80.84% -0.365 0.2639 -0.028
F 633 25.53% 34.21 80.09% -0.377 0.3422 0.041
G 441 24.83% 35.34 80.5% -0.17 0.5714 0.021
H 496 24.69% 40.22 79.44% 0.952 1.6001 0.325

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 34.9 100.0% 0.697 1.5807 0.357
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 49 4.55% 35.98 93.88% 0.327 -0.208 0.357
Start of Game Growth 77 10.42% 42.99 87.01% -0.177 -0.5074 0.604
Unlimited Undo 90 4.92% 40.91 88.89% -0.237 -0.259 -0.126
Using Tokens but Not Events 212 3.83% 40.47 87.26% 0.658 0.6043 0.831

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 140 21.03 19.29%
II 293 31.04 84.3%
III 335 34.74 94.93%
IV 120 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 27
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 312
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 234
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 120
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 28
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)