Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 27.0 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 39.33 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 50.0% 47.45 63.64%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 80.0% 17.6 -4.346 20.0% -0.177 1.2498
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 80.0% 31.2 -9.65 20.0% -0.296 1.8002
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 6.67% 22.94 -5.516 75.0% -0.586 -0.3462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 27 29.63% 31.3 77.78%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 27.27% 52.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 21.05% 32.75 2.507 55.0% -0.312 -0.0898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 23 43.48% 45.57 11.791 82.61% 0.204 0.4927
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 20.0% 17.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 60.0% 41.4 14.307 60.0% 0.196 1.6821
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 40.0% 35.3 4.015 80.0% 0.22 0.548
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 25.0% 28.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 13 38.46% 27.92 46.15%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 26.32% 39.26 47.37%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 30 27.59% 34.63 13.235 43.33% 0.357 1.5744
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 33.33% 46.7 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 128 18.75% 59.05 13.844 68.75% 0.303 2.3636
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.544 0.0% -0.127 0.5546
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 0.0% 48.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 37 40.54% 53.78 7.641 75.68% 0.149 1.5407
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 19 27.78% 22.89 -6.472 31.58% -1.14 0.3258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 0.0% 73.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 39.02% 54.88 -12.511 54.88% -0.885 0.5349
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 16.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 10 40.0% 27.5 10.419 40.0% 0.177 0.8073
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 8 37.5% 21.13 -7.112 25.0% -0.609 -0.1472
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 10 44.44% 44.5 -16.932 70.0% -0.354 0.1113
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 44.44% 41.33 77.78%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 46.0 7.546 50.0% 0.009 0.5733
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 104 50.96% 52.36 0.114 60.58% -0.267 0.7002
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 33.33% 22.17 4.447 66.67% 0.405 0.61
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 43 6.98% 66.28 86.05%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16 18.75% 37.06 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 23 13.04% 38.91 3.064 69.57% -0.096 0.2634
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 45.45% 43.36 4.149 54.55% -0.2 0.4983
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 17.0 -4.268 0.0% -0.492 0.304
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 40.0% 47.42 7.265 61.54% 0.113 1.2188
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 40.0% 47.07 86.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 40.0% 56.0 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 0.0% 63.09 12.222 100.0% 0.5 1.596
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 0.0% 55.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 50 50.0% 56.3 19.546 64.0% 0.288 1.9564

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 66 42.86% 35.18 60.61% -0.758
Dahan Insurrection 4 31 19.35% 48.94 58.06% 0.252 0.0409 0.322
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 5 0.0% 30.2 80.0% 0.543 1.614 -0.134
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 169 0.59% 54.75 76.33% 0.237 -0.4877 1.053
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 0.0% 20.33 66.67%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.19
Second Wave 0 176 29.71% 24.32 83.52% 1.723 1.8044 -0.445
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 30.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 100.0% 30.17 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 22 39.32 63.64% 0.605
Aid From Lesser Spirits 22 45.23 72.73% 0.099 0.0403 1.371
All Things Weaken 21 33.81 57.14% -0.288 0.0664 -0.076
Attenuated Essence 5 23.6 20.0% -0.454
Back Against the Wall 10 35.2 40.0% -0.52
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 51.2 100.0% 0.044 0.2544 0.162
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 41.4 80.0% 0.113 0.2332 0.068
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 35.93 64.29%
Downward Spiral 19 30.11 57.89% 0.411
Erosion of Will 16 46.88 81.25% 0.661
Intensifying Exploitation 9 41.78 55.56% -0.39 -0.1195 0.03
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 40.47 53.33% -0.81
Memory Fades to Dust 34 32.38 64.71% -0.431 -0.1195 0.295
Power Corrodes the Spirit 21 39.9 57.14% 0.402 0.6972 0.21
Promising Farmlands 20 39.35 60.0% -0.535 -0.1985 -0.055
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 45.67 66.67% -0.081 0.0275 0.093
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 25.83 66.67% 0.045
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 37.82 94.12% 0.053 -0.56 1.237
The Border of Life and Death 5 48.2 100.0% 0.43
Thriving Communities 29 35.66 48.28% 0.052 0.3846 0.306
Thriving Crops 3 35.67 33.33% 0.013 -0.0735 -0.41
Unnatural Proliferation 25 39.56 72.0% -0.492
Untended Land Crumbles 24 30.96 54.17% -0.136 0.1712 -0.013

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1202 25.49% 32.94 72.3% -0.349 0.5562 0.216
B 1160 25.99% 33.11 72.07% -0.54 0.2882 -0.207
C 1212 25.02% 33.82 73.93% 0.288 0.9681 0.387
D 1177 23.61% 32.91 72.22% -0.076 0.7769 -0.956
E 1130 25.09% 32.51 73.36% 0.692 1.3935 0.192
F 1026 25.85% 30.41 72.51% 0.411 1.1926 0.067
G 710 25.75% 33.36 73.1% -0.431 0.3403 -0.097
H 782 24.38% 38.69 75.19% -0.001 0.767 0.473

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 37.25 96.88% 0.655
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 58 7.14% 35.55 89.66% -0.284 -0.8461 0.655
Start of Game Growth 96 14.06% 42.07 79.17% -0.413 -0.9521 0.047
Unlimited Undo 120 3.41% 39.48 82.5% -0.24 -0.1994 0.523
Using Tokens but Not Events 344 7.05% 35.58 76.16% -0.377 -0.4007 0.25

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 304 16.23 12.17%
II 421 30.54 81.24%
III 518 34.77 94.02%
IV 200 38.37 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 477
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 326
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 199
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 193
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 87
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 60
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)