Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 28.8 60.0%
Blitz 0 140 33.33% 25.32 33.57% 0.247
Dahan Insurrection 4 49 16.33% 43.96 55.1% 0.659
Despicable Theft 2 15 26.67% 9.73 26.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 15 6.67% 17.73 46.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 271 2.58% 44.24 63.84% -0.317 -0.9161 -0.419
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 33.33% 15.44 55.56%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 66.67% 23.33 66.67%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 20.0% 39.0 80.0%
Second Wave 0 325 28.4% 23.97 82.15% 1.12 1.2261
Varied Terrains 2 8 25.0% 28.88 75.0%
Ward the Shores 2 15 41.67% 25.87 80.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 29 34.31 55.17% -0.133
Aid From Lesser Spirits 37 45.19 70.27% 0.818
All Things Weaken 36 31.39 55.56% -0.286
Attenuated Essence 20 40.0 50.0% -0.389
Back Against the Wall 27 44.96 66.67% 0.276
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 37.9 65.0% 0.191
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 32.76 52.94% -0.196
Disintegrating Ecosystem 32 35.31 53.13% -0.442
Downward Spiral 41 31.0 53.66% 0.117 0.3107 -0.13
Erosion of Will 33 34.52 63.64% -0.073 0.2647 0.076
Intensifying Exploitation 24 31.21 58.33%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26 39.12 61.54%
Memory Fades to Dust 59 28.54 54.24% -0.173 0.1562 -0.581
Power Corrodes the Spirit 34 39.26 64.71% 1.005
Promising Farmlands 33 34.97 57.58% -0.364
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 37.53 60.0% 0.943
Slow Dissolution of Will 18 39.72 77.78% 0.983
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 31.68 78.57% 0.243
The Border of Life and Death 15 29.07 53.33% -0.536
Thriving Communities 56 32.57 53.57% 0.146 0.4238 -0.088
Thriving Crops 10 41.2 70.0% 0.581
Unnatural Proliferation 52 37.67 57.69% 0.489 0.6938 1.084
Untended Land Crumbles 43 32.02 48.84% -0.453

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2315 24.98% 28.09 61.47% -0.386 0.6058 -1.023
B 2259 26.23% 28.66 62.28% -0.001 0.8641 0.527
C 2339 25.62% 29.33 63.66% -0.324 0.428 0.533
D 2297 24.07% 27.77 61.82% -0.04 0.9051 -0.094
E 2252 25.01% 28.18 63.59% -0.056 0.6986 -0.122
F 2067 25.92% 27.02 62.8% -0.546 0.3286 -0.451
G 1486 26.43% 29.46 62.38% 0.936 1.7982 0.448
H 1641 25.99% 32.59 64.72% 0.471 1.2786 0.103

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 44 0.0% 30.98 81.82% -0.1 0.6199
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 0.0% 11.5 50.0% -0.179 0.2951
Skip Initial Invader Actions 87 5.45% 32.55 79.31%
Start of Game Growth 161 11.02% 32.86 59.01% -0.171 -0.7376 -0.587
Unlimited Undo 241 5.94% 30.77 62.24% -0.179 -0.1514 -0.534
Using Tokens but Not Events 579 10.09% 28.99 66.15% -0.083 -0.11 -0.502

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 829 12.25 5.55%
II 728 29.91 73.21%
III 934 34.94 94.33%
IV 347 38.9 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 46
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 857
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 513
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 343
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 706
Lose: Invader deck ran out 9
Lose: Adversary condition 153
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 40
Win: Scenario condition 39
Lose: Blight pool ran out 115
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)