Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 30.0 0.024 100.0% 0.136 0.6439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 39.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 38.83 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 0.0% 75.2 11.231 100.0% 0.073 1.4985
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 85.71% 30.43 14.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 6 0.0% 29.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 41.23 -1.318 100.0% 0.442 0.2096
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 7.14% 59.36 0.896 92.86% 0.246 0.4357
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 16.67% 45.33 2.895 83.33% -0.234 0.1322
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 54.55% 38.73 7.078 63.64% 0.21 0.5685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 56.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 50.0% 23.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 29.0 -7.303 50.0% -0.19 0.4878
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 35.0 -4.541 66.67% -0.161 0.9926
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 28.57% 43.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 37.5% 42.22 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 0.0% 52.5 2.499 50.0% -0.345 1.6981
The Kingdom of England 6 11 62 25.81% 54.71 2.775 54.84% -0.952 1.6116
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 24.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 0.0% 48.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 21 28.57% 51.0 61.9%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 0.0% 74.67 4.574 100.0% 0.006 2.3509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 0.0% 51.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 51 43.14% 57.51 5.624 56.86% -0.583 1.5921
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 33.0 3.005 100.0% 0.285 0.1921
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 29.0 -1.681 33.33% -0.133 1.0697
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 20.0% 37.8 2.962 60.0% 0.049 0.9085
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 33.33% 57.67 4.427 100.0% 0.252 1.4697
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 87.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 49 57.14% 49.73 5.248 51.02% -0.502 1.0556
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 21.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 50.0% 39.5 3.978 100.0% 0.058 0.2772
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 27.27% 47.64 3.737 81.82% 0.253 0.5329
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 11 9.09% 51.55 -6.67 90.91% 0.035 0.4862
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 28.57% 51.71 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 15 46.67% 63.0 -0.344 80.0% -0.34 0.8189
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8 12.5% 63.75 -2.989 87.5% -0.536 0.2667
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 66.67% 56.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 0.0% 59.8 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 83.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 28.57% 72.43 5.772 85.71% -0.346 1.6248

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 46 46.15% 38.72 45.65% -0.889
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 16.67% 76.58 91.67% 0.674
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 28.5 50.0% -0.536 -0.0373
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67% 0.285 0.8312 -0.271
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 92 1.09% 52.61 75.0% -0.133 0.0983 0.326
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.121 0.5286
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 38.0 100.0% -0.111
Second Wave 0 76 26.32% 26.3 90.79% 0.318 1.0106 -0.345
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 30.8 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 49.0 63.64% 0.008 1.9793 0.622
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 44.5 64.29% 0.445 2.2223 1.208
All Things Weaken 15 33.93 60.0% 0.202 2.2507 -0.096
Back Against the Wall 8 36.88 37.5% -1.094 0.8455 -0.692
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 37.8 40.0%
Downward Spiral 9 32.67 66.67% 0.031 1.9922 0.004
Erosion of Will 11 46.18 72.73% 0.299 2.3805 0.258
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 35.3 40.0% -0.063 0.4385 -0.953
Memory Fades to Dust 16 31.19 68.75% -0.536 1.605 0.366
Power Corrodes the Spirit 10 42.7 60.0% -0.011
Promising Farmlands 12 34.67 58.33% 0.082 2.1039 -0.332
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 45.5 83.33% 0.061 0.5577 1.295
Thriving Communities 6 27.33 50.0% -0.258 1.801 -0.213
Unnatural Proliferation 9 34.11 55.56% 0.136 2.0928 -0.443
Untended Land Crumbles 14 35.0 64.29% -0.71 1.3234 -0.139

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 513 25.5% 36.44 79.53% -0.067 0.6689 0.482
B 530 26.11% 36.32 78.87% -0.404 0.2929 -0.319
C 536 24.86% 36.87 80.78% -0.014 0.4553 0.194
D 542 24.05% 36.87 80.07% -0.29 0.419 -0.702
E 514 24.65% 35.58 82.49% -0.265 0.2796 -0.12
F 488 25.11% 35.54 82.38% -0.046 0.6156 0.15
G 348 23.75% 37.07 82.18% 0.614 1.2451 0.173
H 353 23.55% 40.32 79.04% 0.549 1.2135 0.222

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 16 0.0% 35.94 100.0% 0.073 2.3021 0.213
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 37.45 96.77% -0.117 -1.0973 0.213
Start of Game Growth 55 10.26% 48.09 87.27% -0.62 -1.0764 0.494
Unlimited Undo 60 4.55% 45.48 95.0% 0.103 -0.4481 -0.35
Using Tokens but Not Events 142 3.97% 41.65 88.03% 0.591 0.746 0.455

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 93 22.65 16.13%
II 221 31.08 85.52%
III 250 34.66 94.8%
IV 99 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 232
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 177
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 99
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 63
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 20
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 33
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)