Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 25.0% 12.92 25.0% -0.53 -0.5634 -0.478
Blitz 0 46 23.68% 25.33 69.57% -1.024 -0.7087 -0.559
Dahan Insurrection 4 91 32.97% 58.99 63.74% 0.775 0.5605 0.192
Despicable Theft 2 11 18.18% 17.45 36.36% -0.294 0.6909 -0.473
Elemental Invocation 1 27 55.56% 27.07 37.04% -0.644 0.3281 -1.262
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 19.42% 44.31 73.3% -0.423 -1.0943 0.327
Powers Long Forgotten 1 19 21.05% 23.74 42.11% -1.041 -0.0786 -0.732
Rituals of Terror 3 19 36.84% 25.37 36.84% -0.229 -0.1948 -1.054
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 30.0% 18.3 20.0% -0.841 0.2722 -0.447
Second Wave 0 818 18.58% 27.86 91.08% -0.031 0.039 0.167
Varied Terrains 2 15 26.67% 14.53 46.67% -0.088 0.8102 -0.391
Ward the Shores 2 15 30.77% 25.87 60.0% -0.991 -0.015 -0.289

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 77 36.26 55.84% -0.131 0.0448 -0.006
Aid From Lesser Spirits 79 39.11 78.48% 1.554 1.4996 -0.211
All Things Weaken 77 34.97 66.23% -0.945 -0.668 0.419
Attenuated Essence 11 40.09 81.82% -0.082 0.0056 -0.085
Back Against the Wall 89 39.67 68.54% 1.281 1.3573 -0.616
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 23.54 41.67% 0.808 0.9973
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 30.06 61.11% 0.518 0.7558
Disintegrating Ecosystem 68 31.03 67.65% 0.113 0.4987 -0.208
Downward Spiral 90 35.57 73.33% 0.177 0.3166 -0.356
Erosion of Will 54 38.63 70.37% 0.602 0.8901 0.435
Intensifying Exploitation 21 16.33 33.33% -0.613 -0.3843 -1.06
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.37 78.26% 1.305
Memory Fades to Dust 85 34.24 77.65% -0.088 0.1731 0.258
Power Corrodes the Spirit 82 29.63 64.63% -0.12 0.1417 -0.005
Promising Farmlands 56 35.16 64.29% -0.399 -0.0873 -0.778
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 22.0 44.44% -0.39 -0.2055 -0.584
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 26.52 76.19% 0.693 1.0397
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 41.89 96.43% 0.466 -0.1639 0.671
The Border of Life and Death 14 36.64 85.71% 0.308 -0.1502 -0.803
Thriving Communities 80 28.66 50.0% -1.098 -0.76 -0.84
Thriving Crops 12 43.58 91.67% 0.235 0.2485 -0.407
Unnatural Proliferation 101 33.64 74.26% 0.796 0.9307 -0.307
Untended Land Crumbles 90 31.14 61.11% -1.032 -0.6516 0.351

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2532 34.19% 32.25 76.9% 0.074 0.8931 0.462
B 2465 33.99% 32.04 77.16% 0.322 1.0904 -0.358
C 2521 33.84% 32.59 77.95% 0.488 1.1211 -0.221
D 2512 35.16% 31.82 76.55% -0.015 0.765 0.187
E 2410 33.69% 31.9 75.31% -0.682 -0.0632 0.117
F 2220 33.78% 31.62 76.85% 0.066 0.7968 0.066
G 2022 33.71% 32.05 78.04% 0.072 0.8717 -0.121
H 1979 33.39% 32.38 77.67% -0.27 0.4531 -0.088

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 99 0.0% 43.16 81.82% 0.451 1.2401 0.83
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 23.81% 21.22 78.26% 0.393 0.7941 -0.445
Skip Initial Invader Actions 197 17.27% 47.63 87.31% 0.311 -0.3222 0.668
Start of Game Growth 306 23.08% 46.4 83.33% -0.139 -0.6893 0.214
Unlimited Undo 375 30.16% 41.38 82.4% -0.273 -0.2297 0.488
Using Tokens but Not Events 557 17.83% 34.15 85.28% 1.15 1.113 1.079

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 557 15.91 8.62%
II 968 30.5 73.14%
III 1590 34.78 94.59%
IV 682 38.4 99.41%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 48
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1474
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 663
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 678
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 371
Lose: Invader deck ran out 10
Lose: Adversary condition 145
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 264
Lose: Spirit destroyed 35

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-26 05:36:00 (Pacific Time)