Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 11.11% 32.11 -4.124 100.0% 0.324 0.6081
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 25.0% 33.17 -0.968 83.33% -0.802 -0.391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 41.67% 44.92 5.217 100.0% 0.349 1.2258
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 40.0% 47.5 5.142 100.0% 0.363 1.6084
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 44.0 2.785 66.67% -0.545 0.9571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 44.6 2.926 60.0% -0.751 1.2027
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 18 50.0% 59.56 8.912 83.33% -0.788 1.2548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 14.29% 23.29 -6.204 100.0% 0.175 0.2169
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 9.09% 37.36 0.691 90.91% -0.448 -0.4669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 35.0% 41.45 2.009 100.0% 0.596 0.6092
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 19 31.58% 48.89 6.536 100.0% 0.456 0.7436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 30.77% 52.93 8.132 93.33% -0.179 0.188
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 65.33 12.564 100.0% 0.037 0.8639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 18 61.11% 65.28 11.754 88.89% -0.295 0.9428
The Kingdom of England 0 1 14 50.0% 27.93 -4.375 92.86% 0.039 0.371
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 38.25 2.034 100.0% 0.383 0.8968
The Kingdom of England 2 4 20 40.0% 41.2 2.491 100.0% 0.497 1.4643
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 40.0% 52.36 6.42 100.0% 0.259 1.8374
The Kingdom of England 4 7 36 16.67% 57.78 9.981 100.0% 0.685 2.1838
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 54.5 8.972 75.0% -0.406 1.6668
The Kingdom of England 6 11 60 42.11% 64.87 12.55 83.33% -1.353 0.8945
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 -3.369 100.0% 0.222 0.7361
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.587 75.0% -0.355 0.5442
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7 71.43% 41.57 3.744 85.71% -0.061 2.082
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 9 75.0% 51.22 6.808 88.89% -0.011 2.1857
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 53.85% 58.69 10.287 92.31% -0.091 2.0674
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 70.0% 56.1 7.484 70.0% -0.986 0.8308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 22 54.55% 72.86 16.214 95.45% 0.137 2.2339
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 14 64.29% 25.64 -6.208 100.0% 0.63 0.7155
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.832 100.0% 0.192 0.2251
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 45.0% 37.6 0.39 100.0% 0.552 0.7869
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 53.85% 40.15 2.009 84.62% -0.358 -0.0713
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 40.0% 52.8 5.334 100.0% 0.114 0.8968
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 52.0 7.688 100.0% 0.048 1.2145
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 65.38% 54.15 7.956 96.15% 0.398 1.5227
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -3.894 100.0% 0.26 0.1585
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 33.33% 40.0 0.923 100.0% 0.104 0.8824
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 71.43% 39.86 1.719 100.0% 0.27 0.6897
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 100.0% 25.33 -5.431 33.33% -1.399 -0.1451
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 53.5 8.934 100.0% 0.102 1.2187
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 6.249 75.0% -0.392 1.6071
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 80.0% 44.8 3.793 40.0% -1.777 0.1009

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 38.6 -2.735 100.0% 0.201 0.77
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 22.22% 71.0 12.576 77.78% -0.668 -0.2702
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 4.024 100.0% 0.051 0.3206
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 60.5 4.57 100.0% 0.084 0.548
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 58 25.86% 48.62 3.14 93.1% -0.158 0.2084
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 40.67 -2.947 66.67% -0.774 -0.3289
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 67.0 11.091 66.67% -0.593 0.0519
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 20.025 100.0% 0.158 0.8028
Second Wave 0 148 25.68% 31.75 -2.268 97.3% 0.808 1.2367
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 36.0 -1.833 100.0% 0.016 1.0501

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 23 39.74 -1.785 73.91% -1.664 0.4087
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 38.47 0.227 94.12% -0.021 1.8975
All Things Weaken 19 38.42 -3.496 73.68% -1.796 0.3747
Back Against the Wall 18 39.5 -1.286 88.89% -0.475 1.616
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 32.84 -3.422 84.21% -0.932 1.2929
Downward Spiral 27 39.85 -1.802 70.37% -1.417 0.6061
Erosion of Will 16 41.13 0.043 87.5% -0.689 1.5204
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 38.29 -1.684 100.0% 0.315 1.0017
Memory Fades to Dust 17 49.12 2.988 88.24% -0.46 1.7584
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 42.8 1.257 100.0% 0.532 2.5556
Promising Farmlands 13 36.92 -1.579 84.62% -0.978 1.2356
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11 39.27 -0.382 100.0% 0.261 0.6713
Thriving Communities 23 39.09 -2.303 73.91% -1.594 0.5012
Unnatural Proliferation 24 37.96 -1.034 87.5% -1.033 1.0533
Untended Land Crumbles 22 39.05 -2.258 72.73% -1.695 0.4105

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 479 37.92% 40.33 -0.717 92.9% -0.089 -0.8491
B 486 38.28% 41.34 0.191 94.03% 0.183 -0.6742
C 467 38.43% 41.22 0.229 92.93% -0.07 -1.1583
D 490 39.29% 40.08 -0.732 93.06% -0.107 -0.9571
E 463 40.26% 41.49 0.476 92.66% -0.022 -0.9875
F 430 35.93% 42.39 0.693 93.72% 0.132 -0.7817
G 429 39.01% 40.59 -0.418 93.47% -0.06 -0.9656
H 406 40.7% 41.81 0.207 93.6% 0.101 -0.8135

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 50.33 0.803 100.0% 0.293 2.3495
Skip Initial Invader Actions 66 26.67% 57.68 4.022 93.94% 0.123 -0.5638
Start of Game Growth 84 29.87% 55.17 3.984 96.43% 0.905 0.4344
Unlimited Undo 84 38.96% 51.94 1.891 90.48% -0.95 -1.3699
Using Tokens but Not Events 55 23.26% 47.16 1.181 96.36% 0.47 0.418

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16 22.35 37.5%
II 163 30.84 85.89%
III 364 34.35 95.6%
IV 187 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 341
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 137
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 187
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 12
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)