Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 57.5 100.0% 0.215
Blitz 0 24 31.25% 32.96 95.83% 0.211 0.6064
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 39.06% 69.64 71.88% -0.447 -0.7151 0.02
Despicable Theft 2 3 0.0% 34.67 66.67% -0.462 0.0803 -0.207
Elemental Invocation 1 18 55.56% 31.89 50.0% 0.079 0.9044 -0.996
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 163 23.93% 49.38 79.75% -0.497 -0.7386 -0.166
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 41.2 70.0% -0.484
Rituals of Terror 3 5 80.0% 46.2 40.0% -0.398 -0.9174 -0.608
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.1
Second Wave 0 529 19.47% 29.27 95.09% 0.441 0.7244 -0.557
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.216 0.807
Ward the Shores 2 5 75.0% 46.8 80.0% 0.068

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 49 38.22 59.18% -0.695 0.4899 -0.289
Aid From Lesser Spirits 47 41.62 80.85% 0.09 1.0769 -0.466
All Things Weaken 50 39.26 72.0% 0.11 1.4001 0.221
Back Against the Wall 52 43.02 78.85% 0.12 1.1723 -0.604
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 33.91 67.86% -0.175 1.1587 -0.712
Downward Spiral 55 39.22 72.73% 0.07 1.2137 -0.95
Erosion of Will 37 42.14 83.78% -0.193 1.1405 0.109
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 28 43.0 100.0% 0.045 0.0876 0.916
Memory Fades to Dust 46 36.93 76.09% -0.194 1.1195 -0.488
Power Corrodes the Spirit 43 36.53 72.09% 0.382 1.5256 0.129
Promising Farmlands 29 38.45 65.52% 0.054 1.3774 -1.405
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 43.95 100.0% 0.516
Thriving Communities 49 34.53 55.1% -1.089 0.2634 -1.388
Unnatural Proliferation 60 35.47 75.0% -0.484 0.677 -0.544
Untended Land Crumbles 61 33.3 62.3% -0.289 0.9535 0.282

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1325 33.91% 38.26 86.11% -0.549 0.2915 0.41
B 1332 35.33% 37.96 87.61% 0.246 0.9732 -0.538
C 1347 33.46% 38.54 86.93% 0.457 1.0223 -0.103
D 1368 34.67% 37.68 86.4% 0.002 0.807 0.271
E 1334 35.08% 38.12 85.98% -0.177 0.4358 0.05
F 1205 33.99% 37.85 86.31% -0.554 0.1664 0.258
G 1156 34.43% 37.53 88.06% 0.527 1.2145 0.015
H 1120 33.95% 38.49 87.05% 0.111 0.7995 -0.303

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 68 0.0% 53.41 91.18% -0.866 0.7973 0.765
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 41.67% 23.43 71.43% 0.07 0.2641 -0.34
Skip Initial Invader Actions 137 22.35% 57.16 97.08% 0.479 -0.3088 0.409
Start of Game Growth 208 27.74% 54.41 91.35% 0.886 0.4029 -0.163
Unlimited Undo 232 31.11% 48.89 89.22% -0.354 -0.6289 -0.11
Using Tokens but Not Events 308 16.12% 42.9 93.18% 0.065 0.1041 1.346

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 143 22.35 19.58%
II 616 31.11 81.82%
III 956 34.7 95.61%
IV 369 37.97 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 899
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 466
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 367
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 14
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 142
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-10 13:29:50 (Pacific Time)