Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 72.0 100.0% 0.197 -0.0054 0.193
Blitz 0 19 26.67% 32.0 94.74% 0.008 0.2649
Dahan Insurrection 4 46 30.43% 72.65 86.96% 0.082 0.4955 0.635
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 100.0% -0.032
Elemental Invocation 1 15 60.0% 31.53 46.67% -0.988 -0.5026 -0.593
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 137 24.82% 51.31 81.75% -0.515 -0.2094 -0.165
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 41.2 70.0% -0.57 -0.3882 -0.475
Rituals of Terror 3 4 100.0% 57.75 50.0% -0.451 -0.3295 -0.462
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.097
Second Wave 0 412 19.17% 29.39 95.39% 0.195 0.7603 -0.708
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.117 0.6428
Ward the Shores 2 5 75.0% 46.8 80.0% -0.642 0.5196 0.105

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 41 36.24 60.98% -1.052 0.851 -0.644
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36 39.47 86.11% 0.103 1.8327 0.009
All Things Weaken 38 41.18 71.05% -0.313 1.6727 0.536
Back Against the Wall 38 39.5 76.32% -0.543 1.2739 -0.643
Disintegrating Ecosystem 43 29.58 67.44% -1.067 0.9836 -0.603
Downward Spiral 48 39.65 75.0% -0.895 1.0979 -1.089
Erosion of Will 27 43.63 85.19% -0.403 1.68 0.044
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 23 42.96 100.0% 0.192 0.6331 0.742
Memory Fades to Dust 34 40.79 73.53% -0.424 1.6604 -0.362
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 37.14 70.27% -1.378 0.5604 0.141
Promising Farmlands 25 40.08 72.0% -0.635 1.411 -1.137
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 44.18 100.0% 0.311 0.7358 0.396
Thriving Communities 42 35.45 57.14% -1.174 0.8097 -1.513
Unnatural Proliferation 45 36.24 75.56% -0.501 1.4631 -0.394
Untended Land Crumbles 48 30.23 56.25% -1.6 0.3929 -0.139

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1024 34.69% 39.27 87.5% 0.25 1.0475 0.26
B 1040 35.78% 38.97 88.27% -0.082 0.6616 -0.562
C 1033 34.73% 39.68 87.8% 0.101 0.6693 0.058
D 1058 35.69% 38.85 87.52% -0.152 0.6439 0.214
E 1038 36.4% 39.4 87.48% 0.183 0.8303 0.117
F 903 35.12% 39.2 87.6% -0.334 0.3897 0.393
G 897 35.36% 38.39 89.19% -0.026 0.706 -0.181
H 865 35.48% 39.91 88.32% 0.124 0.836 -0.247

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 49 0.0% 55.0 93.88% 0.109 2.2384 0.598
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 40.0% 23.75 66.67% 0.063 0.2381 -0.475
Skip Initial Invader Actions 119 22.78% 56.14 96.64% 0.437 0.2948 0.115
Start of Game Growth 177 26.47% 54.92 90.96% 0.626 -0.1344 -0.045
Unlimited Undo 182 33.1% 50.11 90.11% 0.231 -0.3725 -0.406
Using Tokens but Not Events 224 13.56% 45.58 95.54% 1.268 1.112 1.158

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 88 22.56 23.86%
II 466 30.98 81.97%
III 740 34.53 95.0%
IV 311 37.77 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 21
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 690
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 349
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 309
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 51
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 19
Win: Scenario condition 44
Lose: Blight pool ran out 109
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)