Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 0.0% 32.29 -4.294 100.0% 0.239 0.5194
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10 20.0% 34.1 -0.134 90.0% -0.308 0.0821
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 11 36.36% 45.27 5.774 100.0% 0.349 1.2193
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 33.33% 47.67 5.483 100.0% 0.188 1.4446
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 55.5 7.815 100.0% 0.125 1.6538
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 50.0 4.439 75.0% -0.289 1.7367
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 47.06% 59.29 8.79 82.35% -0.679 1.3911
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 20.0% 23.0 -6.481 100.0% 0.107 0.1446
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 14.29% 34.14 -0.396 85.71% -0.632 -0.662
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 40.0% 41.33 2.522 100.0% 0.423 0.4274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15 33.33% 48.67 6.435 100.0% 0.396 0.6875
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 20.0% 50.58 7.451 91.67% -0.283 0.0777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 68.0 12.662 100.0% 0.015 0.8429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 53.33% 64.73 11.495 93.33% -0.052 1.1924
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 66.67% 23.67 -6.028 100.0% 0.217 0.5485
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 16.67% 38.33 2.402 100.0% 0.24 0.7405
The Kingdom of England 2 4 14 35.71% 41.21 2.442 100.0% 0.405 1.374
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 44.44% 49.22 4.666 100.0% 0.179 1.7577
The Kingdom of England 4 7 29 10.34% 56.86 9.489 100.0% 0.55 2.0515
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 52.67 7.586 66.67% -0.578 1.4923
The Kingdom of England 6 11 45 45.45% 61.07 11.035 77.78% -1.668 0.5838
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 -2.97 100.0% 0.203 0.7278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.54 75.0% -0.379 0.5142
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 41.33 3.901 83.33% -0.119 2.0101
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 71.43% 53.75 8.007 100.0% 0.327 2.5132
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 58.33% 56.58 9.406 91.67% -0.056 2.0867
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 61.0 10.891 87.5% -0.244 1.5788
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 20 55.0% 72.9 16.178 95.0% 0.059 2.1747
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 90.0% 23.7 -6.456 100.0% 0.582 0.6705
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.666 100.0% 0.173 0.1928
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16 50.0% 35.63 -0.539 100.0% 0.487 0.7094
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 55.56% 42.67 3.614 88.89% -0.249 0.037
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 40.0% 52.8 5.842 100.0% 0.117 0.8845
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 52.0 7.599 100.0% 0.048 1.208
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 24 66.67% 53.83 7.834 95.83% 0.183 1.3156
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -4.07 100.0% 0.256 0.1358
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 42.5 1.46 100.0% 0.066 0.7841
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 39.67 1.068 100.0% 0.257 0.6989
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 16.0 -11.01 0.0% -0.894 0.3564
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 53.0 8.328 100.0% 0.047 1.1707
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 6.561 75.0% -0.382 1.6648
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 87.5% 38.0 1.052 25.0% -2.073 -0.1383

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 38.6 -2.228 100.0% 0.187 0.7678
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 0.0% 83.25 17.224 100.0% 0.08 0.4831
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 3.328 100.0% 0.111 0.4609
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 60.5 4.006 100.0% 0.091 0.4638
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 47 29.79% 48.57 3.228 93.62% -0.109 0.2558
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 40.67 -2.227 66.67% -0.623 -0.1818
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 61.0 9.076 100.0% 0.021 0.655
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 19.57 100.0% 0.07 0.7105
Second Wave 0 135 25.19% 31.64 -2.187 97.78% 0.839 1.2627
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 36.0 -0.386 100.0% 0.028 1.0695

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 15 40.0 -2.178 73.33% -1.255 0.8152
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 37.64 0.217 92.86% -0.14 1.7819
All Things Weaken 16 38.19 -3.536 75.0% -1.497 0.6566
Back Against the Wall 13 42.92 0.999 100.0% 0.387 2.4835
Disintegrating Ecosystem 17 32.24 -3.578 82.35% -0.959 1.2673
Downward Spiral 24 39.29 -1.423 75.0% -1.094 0.9251
Erosion of Will 15 41.8 -0.03 86.67% -0.796 1.4145
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 40.73 -1.146 100.0% 0.366 1.0597
Memory Fades to Dust 13 46.92 1.962 84.62% -0.543 1.6724
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 40.62 0.566 100.0% 0.555 2.5721
Promising Farmlands 11 38.0 -0.984 81.82% -1.037 1.1767
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 36.0 -2.182 100.0% 0.185 0.6156
Thriving Communities 18 33.39 -4.613 66.67% -1.631 0.4644
Unnatural Proliferation 20 39.05 -0.805 90.0% -0.865 1.2209
Untended Land Crumbles 15 39.07 -1.936 80.0% -1.2 0.8965

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 393 38.3% 39.7 -0.941 93.13% -0.17 -1.2716
B 393 37.63% 40.78 0.143 94.66% 0.272 -0.9244
C 371 39.73% 40.17 -0.038 92.99% -0.114 -1.5422
D 384 39.42% 39.52 -0.77 93.75% 0.103 -1.0877
E 361 40.06% 41.35 0.755 92.8% 0.025 -1.2736
F 343 35.1% 41.57 0.071 93.29% -0.065 -1.3191
G 356 38.07% 40.98 0.248 93.82% 0.042 -1.2
H 329 40.37% 41.62 0.423 93.62% -0.016 -1.2728

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 36.63 -3.637 100.0% 0.218 2.2664
Skip Initial Invader Actions 59 26.32% 56.9 3.991 93.22% 0.378 -0.3268
Start of Game Growth 74 29.58% 54.27 3.723 95.95% 0.976 0.5241
Unlimited Undo 66 38.1% 52.45 1.878 87.88% -1.164 -1.5804
Using Tokens but Not Events 45 27.03% 41.98 -0.136 95.56% 0.248 0.197

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7 22.33 28.57%
II 131 30.75 85.5%
III 299 34.25 95.32%
IV 149 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 280
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 110
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 149
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)