Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 28.57% 19.29 42.86% -0.501 -0.7854 -0.313
Blitz 0 35 22.22% 31.03 85.71% -0.13 0.0305
Dahan Insurrection 4 70 37.14% 67.61 70.0% -0.873 -1.2532 0.048
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 26.0 50.0% -0.643 0.1242 -0.366
Elemental Invocation 1 19 57.89% 33.16 52.63% 0.189 0.9137 -0.893
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 175 22.29% 48.29 79.43% 0.694 0.0622 0.091
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 33.33% 34.33 58.33% -1.006 -0.3988 -0.936
Rituals of Terror 3 6 66.67% 38.5 33.33% -0.137 0.0225 -0.914
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.087
Second Wave 0 610 18.69% 28.83 94.43% 1.092 1.1693 -0.409
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 26.8 80.0% -0.344 0.2804
Ward the Shores 2 7 50.0% 33.43 57.14% -0.858 0.185 -0.072

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 51 38.33 56.86% -0.596 -0.3662 -0.273
Aid From Lesser Spirits 53 38.92 79.25% 0.076 0.0016 -0.361
All Things Weaken 51 38.63 70.59% -0.256 0.112 0.416
Back Against the Wall 60 39.53 70.0% -1.224 -1.1727 -0.569
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 12.33 16.67% -1.28 -1.0625
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 6.0 0.0% -0.759 -0.5907
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 33.91 67.86% 0.548 0.9522 -0.561
Downward Spiral 66 39.36 77.27% 0.981 1.2217 -0.732
Erosion of Will 42 39.55 73.81% -1.15 -0.8457 0.303
Intensifying Exploitation 1 0.0 0.0% -0.362 -0.0838
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 31 43.77 100.0% 0.672 0.183 1.229
Memory Fades to Dust 55 35.27 80.0% 1.33 1.6696 -0.315
Power Corrodes the Spirit 56 31.43 69.64% -0.199 0.0248 0.336
Promising Farmlands 36 38.44 69.44% 0.62 1.0787 -0.934
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 10.5 33.33% -1.252 -1.218
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 27.0 100.0% 0.869 1.2639
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 43.95 100.0% 0.211 -0.4787 0.62
The Border of Life and Death 6 44.17 83.33% 0.64 0.3072 -0.584
Thriving Communities 56 33.45 51.79% -0.221 0.1227 -1.098
Thriving Crops 5 34.6 80.0% 0.734 0.547 -0.586
Unnatural Proliferation 68 36.44 76.47% 0.919 1.0964 -0.485
Untended Land Crumbles 67 34.58 65.67% 0.013 0.2731 0.448

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1565 34.35% 36.29 82.75% -0.22 0.552 0.466
B 1555 35.19% 35.73 83.79% -0.075 0.6799 -0.572
C 1604 33.7% 36.28 83.17% -0.093 0.5117 -0.368
D 1616 34.72% 35.66 83.23% 0.222 0.9499 0.359
E 1565 34.3% 36.09 83.07% 0.292 0.888 0.207
F 1404 33.48% 35.71 82.98% -0.126 0.5325 0.27
G 1352 33.92% 35.69 84.99% -0.058 0.6231 -0.21
H 1310 32.6% 36.49 84.27% 0.111 0.706 -0.098

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 78 0.0% 50.56 83.33% -0.871 -0.0854 0.896
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 41.67% 23.43 71.43% -0.394
Skip Initial Invader Actions 151 19.79% 56.44 96.03% 0.306 -0.3316 0.612
Start of Game Growth 229 25.43% 53.87 90.83% 1.068 0.7716 -0.11
Unlimited Undo 268 32.39% 47.26 87.69% -0.296 -0.3145 0.024
Using Tokens but Not Events 372 14.53% 39.46 88.44% -0.205 -0.2514 1.203

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 234 20.49 14.53%
II 699 31.02 79.4%
III 1085 34.76 95.3%
IV 430 38.06 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1017
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 516
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 428
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 91
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 85
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 53
Lose: Blight pool ran out 176
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)