Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 0.0% 32.5 -4.006 100.0% 0.207 0.4878
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 28.57% 33.57 -0.806 85.71% -0.484 -0.1107
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 8 37.5% 45.63 5.613 100.0% 0.285 1.1322
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 33.33% 47.67 5.443 100.0% 0.227 1.4649
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 55.5 6.938 100.0% 0.114 1.6362
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 49.33 4.124 66.67% -0.309 1.7191
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 47.06% 59.29 8.6 82.35% -0.678 1.4147
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 20.0% 23.0 -6.718 100.0% 0.103 0.1507
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 14.29% 34.14 -0.771 85.71% -0.618 -0.6465
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 27.27% 42.73 3.152 100.0% 0.316 0.3136
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13 30.77% 49.08 6.691 100.0% 0.425 0.7095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 11 11.11% 53.45 8.586 100.0% 0.264 0.6419
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 68.0 12.405 100.0% 0.013 0.8467
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12 50.0% 64.58 11.278 91.67% -0.17 1.0788
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 80.0% 23.6 -5.738 100.0% 0.268 0.6002
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 16.67% 38.33 1.945 100.0% 0.202 0.6849
The Kingdom of England 2 4 13 38.46% 41.54 2.503 100.0% 0.448 1.4054
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 50.0% 48.0 4.709 100.0% 0.21 1.7869
The Kingdom of England 4 7 26 7.69% 57.12 9.439 100.0% 0.552 2.0742
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 52.67 7.676 66.67% -0.58 1.4834
The Kingdom of England 6 11 39 43.59% 61.87 11.03 79.49% -1.374 0.8812
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 18.0 -6.334 100.0% 0.14 0.6644
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.67 75.0% -0.424 0.4676
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 41.33 3.627 83.33% -0.136 1.9922
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6 60.0% 55.33 8.669 100.0% 0.331 2.5171
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 63.64% 55.73 8.62 90.91% -0.071 2.0739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 50.0% 60.33 10.095 83.33% -0.374 1.4446
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 17 52.94% 72.71 15.836 94.12% 0.04 2.1746
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 90.0% 23.7 -6.624 100.0% 0.619 0.7048
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.157 100.0% 0.169 0.178
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 53.33% 36.0 -0.499 100.0% 0.519 0.7357
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 55.56% 42.67 3.339 88.89% -0.205 0.0797
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 25.0% 54.75 5.547 100.0% 0.069 0.8461
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 50.0 6.427 100.0% 0.029 1.1939
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 20 60.0% 53.7 7.696 95.0% 0.19 1.3222
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -4.246 100.0% 0.239 0.1221
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 42.5 1.058 100.0% 0.073 0.7619
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 66.67% 40.0 -0.447 100.0% 0.078 0.514
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 16.0 -10.775 0.0% -0.887 0.388
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 53.0 7.481 100.0% 0.055 1.2124
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 6.26 75.0% -0.339 1.6975
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 83.33% 42.5 3.156 33.33% -1.656 0.2939

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 38.6 -2.867 100.0% 0.185 0.7572
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 0.0% 83.25 16.666 100.0% 0.092 0.4928
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 66.0 6.985 100.0% 0.034 0.4994
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 40 22.5% 46.17 2.253 95.0% -0.03 0.3457
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 40.0% 40.8 -3.587 60.0% -0.695 -0.2477
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 61.0 8.704 100.0% 0.027 0.649
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 19.166 100.0% 0.071 0.6958
Second Wave 0 122 22.13% 32.38 -1.978 98.36% 1.069 1.4881
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 36.0 -1.161 100.0% 0.033 1.0638

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 13 35.69 -3.718 69.23% -1.427 0.6412
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 33.42 -1.356 91.67% -0.149 1.7671
All Things Weaken 15 37.07 -3.787 73.33% -1.421 0.7395
Back Against the Wall 9 38.89 0.209 100.0% 0.347 2.439
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 36.08 -1.982 83.33% -0.79 1.431
Downward Spiral 17 41.65 -0.314 76.47% -0.813 1.2015
Erosion of Will 13 40.08 -0.482 84.62% -0.773 1.4385
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 45.11 0.041 100.0% 0.351 1.0632
Memory Fades to Dust 11 47.73 2.058 81.82% -0.606 1.6094
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 40.62 0.475 100.0% 0.543 2.5628
Promising Farmlands 11 38.0 -1.29 81.82% -0.969 1.2457
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 36.0 -2.481 100.0% 0.205 0.622
Thriving Communities 15 32.13 -5.036 66.67% -1.525 0.582
Unnatural Proliferation 13 42.31 -0.045 84.62% -0.99 1.0907
Untended Land Crumbles 11 41.0 -1.548 81.82% -0.843 1.2519

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 336 35.84% 40.02 -0.815 93.15% -0.112 -1.1855
B 341 35.61% 41.12 0.198 94.13% 0.121 -1.0438
C 326 37.81% 40.44 -0.026 92.94% -0.082 -1.4791
D 341 36.42% 39.63 -0.908 93.55% -0.033 -1.1914
E 312 37.54% 41.62 0.635 92.95% -0.028 -1.2844
F 293 33.45% 41.9 0.031 93.52% -0.023 -1.2489
G 312 35.28% 41.26 0.244 94.23% 0.202 -1.0103
H 284 38.13% 42.02 0.526 93.66% 0.018 -1.2039

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 32.14 -5.855 100.0% 0.214 2.2527
Skip Initial Invader Actions 53 25.49% 57.96 4.076 92.45% 0.354 -0.3523
Start of Game Growth 64 27.42% 55.75 4.067 95.31% 0.886 0.4268
Unlimited Undo 60 37.93% 52.67 1.558 86.67% -1.094 -1.4962
Using Tokens but Not Events 39 21.88% 44.13 0.703 94.87% 0.112 0.0661

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6 22.34 16.67%
II 113 30.71 86.73%
III 262 34.23 95.04%
IV 128 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 244
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 96
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 128
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)