Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 8 12.5% 31.63 -4.372 100.0% 0.305 0.5831
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11 18.18% 34.18 -0.161 90.91% -0.338 0.0561
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 41.67% 44.92 5.429 100.0% 0.317 1.195
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 28.57% 47.57 5.062 100.0% 0.202 1.4534
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 55.5 7.613 100.0% 0.125 1.6464
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 50.0 4.514 75.0% -0.358 1.6196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 47.06% 59.29 8.786 82.35% -0.703 1.3468
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 6 16.67% 22.67 -6.662 100.0% 0.13 0.171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9 11.11% 34.11 -0.434 88.89% -0.574 -0.6027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 40.0% 41.33 2.489 100.0% 0.379 0.3835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 19 31.58% 48.89 6.592 100.0% 0.411 0.7002
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 18.18% 50.85 7.52 92.31% -0.295 0.0722
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 65.33 12.549 100.0% 0.041 0.8702
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 53.33% 64.73 11.4 93.33% -0.102 1.1389
The Kingdom of England 0 1 8 50.0% 24.38 -6.01 100.0% 0.248 0.5806
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 16.67% 38.33 2.189 100.0% 0.21 0.7137
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 44.44% 40.44 2.102 100.0% 0.481 1.4496
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 40.0% 49.4 5.249 100.0% 0.204 1.7827
The Kingdom of England 4 7 32 15.63% 56.81 9.586 100.0% 0.626 2.1239
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 54.5 8.937 75.0% -0.469 1.5982
The Kingdom of England 6 11 49 43.75% 61.76 11.456 79.59% -1.588 0.6668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 -3.259 100.0% 0.19 0.7048
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.768 75.0% -0.39 0.5062
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7 71.43% 41.57 3.806 85.71% -0.16 1.977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 71.43% 53.75 8.154 100.0% 0.309 2.4946
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 58.33% 56.58 9.367 91.67% -0.073 2.0738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 61.0 10.848 87.5% -0.291 1.529
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 22 54.55% 72.86 16.441 95.45% 0.085 2.1914
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 11 81.82% 23.73 -6.467 100.0% 0.552 0.6369
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.832 100.0% 0.176 0.1973
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 18 44.44% 36.22 -0.167 100.0% 0.458 0.6891
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 12 58.33% 39.5 1.882 83.33% -0.553 -0.2668
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 40.0% 52.8 5.745 100.0% 0.105 0.8819
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 52.0 7.653 100.0% 0.052 1.2086
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 24 66.67% 53.83 7.931 95.83% 0.192 1.3229
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -3.906 100.0% 0.236 0.1296
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 33.33% 40.0 1.112 100.0% 0.112 0.8555
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 71.43% 39.86 1.528 100.0% 0.278 0.7092
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 31.5 -2.508 50.0% -0.851 0.3985
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 100.0% 53.5 8.57 100.0% 0.101 1.2281
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 6.643 75.0% -0.402 1.6169
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 77.78% 41.56 2.266 33.33% -2.009 -0.1034

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 38.6 -2.438 100.0% 0.176 0.7495
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 0.0% 83.25 16.779 100.0% 0.058 0.4579
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 3.141 100.0% 0.07 0.3524
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 60.5 3.779 100.0% 0.081 0.5209
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 50 30.0% 48.8 3.172 92.0% -0.384 -0.0179
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 40.67 -2.435 66.67% -0.696 -0.2551
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 61.0 9.089 100.0% 0.017 0.6604
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 19.832 100.0% 0.094 0.7357
Second Wave 0 144 25.69% 32.07 -2.021 97.92% 0.784 1.2124
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 36.0 -0.568 100.0% 0.023 1.06

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 18 40.61 -1.74 77.78% -1.268 0.8051
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 38.47 0.095 94.12% -0.131 1.7878
All Things Weaken 17 38.47 -3.275 76.47% -1.515 0.6435
Back Against the Wall 15 39.33 -0.553 100.0% 0.405 2.499
Disintegrating Ecosystem 17 32.24 -3.677 82.35% -1.036 1.1888
Downward Spiral 24 39.29 -1.659 75.0% -1.227 0.7938
Erosion of Will 16 41.13 -0.294 87.5% -0.796 1.4132
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 12 40.58 -1.238 100.0% 0.342 1.0344
Memory Fades to Dust 13 46.92 2.006 84.62% -0.64 1.5781
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 41.07 0.956 100.0% 0.544 2.5645
Promising Farmlands 13 36.92 -1.44 84.62% -0.956 1.2582
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 36.0 -2.072 100.0% 0.18 0.5914
Thriving Communities 21 36.24 -3.366 71.43% -1.665 0.4283
Unnatural Proliferation 21 40.05 -0.418 90.48% -0.829 1.2609
Untended Land Crumbles 18 38.61 -2.274 77.78% -1.425 0.6811

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 433 37.76% 39.8 -0.839 93.53% -0.17 -1.2826
B 433 37.15% 40.99 0.314 94.92% 0.313 -0.8948
C 408 38.81% 40.49 0.153 93.38% -0.121 -1.5604
D 424 39.0% 39.64 -0.78 94.1% 0.037 -1.1644
E 399 40.0% 41.02 0.434 93.23% -0.057 -1.3693
F 372 35.6% 41.63 0.206 93.82% -0.012 -1.2774
G 387 38.64% 40.73 0.025 94.32% 0.081 -1.1762
H 359 40.63% 41.53 0.393 94.15% 0.005 -1.2609

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 36.63 -3.935 100.0% 0.181 2.2355
Skip Initial Invader Actions 59 26.32% 56.9 3.898 93.22% 0.28 -0.414
Start of Game Growth 75 29.17% 54.32 3.786 96.0% 0.895 0.4322
Unlimited Undo 70 37.31% 51.89 1.762 88.57% -1.124 -1.5443
Using Tokens but Not Events 47 25.64% 43.3 0.369 95.74% 0.292 0.2393

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8 22.34 25.0%
II 142 30.81 86.62%
III 326 34.31 95.71%
IV 167 37.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 307
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 121
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 167
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 27
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)