Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 27.27% 14.09 27.27% -0.824 -0.8886 -0.577
Blitz 0 42 17.65% 26.81 76.19% -0.438 -0.2787 -0.336
Dahan Insurrection 4 87 33.33% 59.94 64.37% 0.668 0.4259 0.089
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 17.33 33.33% -0.145 0.4861 -0.365
Elemental Invocation 1 26 57.69% 28.12 38.46% -0.849 0.0826 -1.271
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 198 19.7% 45.46 74.75% -1.186 -1.9485 0.301
Powers Long Forgotten 1 18 22.22% 25.06 44.44% -0.733 0.1534 -0.811
Rituals of Terror 3 19 36.84% 25.37 36.84% -0.254 -0.1679 -1.148
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 33.33% 25.83 33.33% 0.093
Second Wave 0 770 18.57% 28.16 91.95% 0.077 0.1456 0.084
Varied Terrains 2 10 40.0% 13.4 40.0% -0.113 0.7559 -0.229
Ward the Shores 2 13 27.27% 29.85 69.23% -0.406 0.6552 -0.074

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 74 37.38 58.11% 0.957 1.0527 0.216
Aid From Lesser Spirits 74 37.85 77.03% 0.149 0.0161 -0.312
All Things Weaken 72 36.35 70.83% 0.685 1.0 0.485
Attenuated Essence 7 40.71 85.71% -0.206
Back Against the Wall 87 39.11 67.82% 0.012 0.0329 -0.724
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 24.65 30.0% 0.516 0.6461
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 27.14 50.0% -0.429 -0.3271
Disintegrating Ecosystem 67 31.03 67.16% 0.188 0.5016 -0.263
Downward Spiral 83 36.28 74.7% -0.131 0.0332 -0.387
Erosion of Will 52 39.1 71.15% -0.947 -0.6963 -0.059
Intensifying Exploitation 20 15.4 35.0% 0.329 0.5569 -0.48
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.37 78.26% 0.358 -0.2143 1.332
Memory Fades to Dust 81 34.93 79.01% 1.515 1.7976 0.298
Power Corrodes the Spirit 79 29.27 64.56% 0.279 0.5078 -0.148
Promising Farmlands 53 35.62 67.92% 0.369 0.6806 -0.785
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 21.76 47.06% 0.587 0.7378 -0.608
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 25.95 75.0% -0.964 -0.591
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 41.73 95.45% 0.038 -0.709 0.672
The Border of Life and Death 9 43.44 88.89% 0.119 -0.3012 -0.549
Thriving Communities 72 28.97 52.78% -0.421 -0.1194 -0.877
Thriving Crops 12 43.58 91.67% 0.442 0.3638 -0.559
Unnatural Proliferation 97 33.71 74.23% -0.333 -0.1521 -0.359
Untended Land Crumbles 86 32.26 63.95% -1.028 -0.8067 0.438

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2365 34.22% 32.76 77.72% 0.081 1.1411 0.528
B 2303 34.37% 32.51 78.25% -0.155 0.8159 -0.487
C 2359 33.65% 33.02 78.89% 0.672 1.5026 -0.197
D 2350 35.38% 32.2 77.23% -0.504 0.4897 0.092
E 2260 33.65% 32.39 76.37% -0.771 0.0695 0.142
F 2088 33.5% 32.08 77.73% 0.221 1.1431 0.027
G 1910 33.62% 32.49 79.01% -0.055 0.8534 -0.055
H 1871 33.28% 32.9 79.05% 0.569 1.4875 -0.004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 95 0.0% 44.52 81.05% 0.251 0.9687 0.909
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 23.81% 21.22 78.26% 0.261 0.7426 -0.425
Skip Initial Invader Actions 179 19.83% 50.22 89.39% 0.075 -0.5375 0.72
Start of Game Growth 279 24.09% 48.28 85.3% -0.393 -0.8408 0.181
Unlimited Undo 351 30.93% 42.78 84.62% -0.218 -0.2969 0.366
Using Tokens but Not Events 505 16.5% 35.01 86.14% 0.66 0.7224 1.05

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 489 16.46 7.98%
II 917 30.56 73.94%
III 1507 34.76 94.69%
IV 652 38.34 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 39
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1398
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 634
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 649
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 313
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 133
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 32
Win: Scenario condition 65
Lose: Blight pool ran out 253
Lose: Spirit destroyed 33

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-03 05:46:36 (Pacific Time)