Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 30.77% 17.38 30.77% 0.223 0.1545 -0.483
Blitz 0 47 23.08% 24.79 68.09% -0.945 -0.6701 -0.78
Dahan Insurrection 4 103 29.13% 55.14 61.17% -0.435 -0.6157 0.135
Despicable Theft 2 11 18.18% 17.45 36.36% 0.288 1.1558 -0.507
Elemental Invocation 1 30 60.0% 26.17 33.33% -0.628 0.2621 -1.321
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 19.42% 44.31 73.3% -0.182 -0.7475 0.389
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 23.81% 22.38 38.1% -0.608 0.232 -0.771
Rituals of Terror 3 19 36.84% 25.37 36.84% -0.944
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 27.27% 16.64 18.18% -1.33 -0.3843 -0.574
Second Wave 0 838 18.85% 28.04 90.93% -0.186 -0.0916 0.545
Varied Terrains 2 17 29.41% 15.06 47.06% -0.632 0.1497 -0.434
Ward the Shores 2 16 28.57% 28.25 62.5% -0.249 0.8529 -0.454

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 82 34.91 52.44% -1.061 -0.9147 -0.041
Aid From Lesser Spirits 80 38.69 77.5% 0.187 0.0988 -0.242
All Things Weaken 77 34.97 66.23% 0.573 0.8937 0.659
Attenuated Essence 14 44.36 85.71% 0.675 0.6999 0.513
Back Against the Wall 89 39.67 68.54% 0.3 0.3572 -0.532
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 23.46 42.31% 0.441 0.6282
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 28.8 60.0% 0.226 0.4018
Disintegrating Ecosystem 70 31.91 68.57% 0.629 1.0254 -0.215
Downward Spiral 90 35.57 73.33% -0.289 -0.2198 -0.348
Erosion of Will 59 39.61 72.88% 0.913 1.2019 0.452
Intensifying Exploitation 22 18.27 36.36% -0.059 0.2185 -0.748
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.37 78.26% 0.051 -0.41 1.263
Memory Fades to Dust 86 34.63 77.91% -0.22 -0.0047 0.38
Power Corrodes the Spirit 83 30.13 65.06% -0.139 0.0247 -0.008
Promising Farmlands 58 34.98 65.52% -0.625 -0.334 -0.818
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 22.52 56.52% 0.588 0.7682 -0.542
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 25.28 64.0% -0.463 -0.0851 0.451
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 41.89 96.43% 0.644 -0.0855 0.616
The Border of Life and Death 14 36.64 85.71% 0.112 -0.4908 -0.813
Thriving Communities 81 28.51 50.62% -0.517 -0.2203 -0.889
Thriving Crops 12 43.58 91.67% 0.172 0.1818 -0.28
Unnatural Proliferation 105 33.38 75.24% 0.181 0.3257 -0.187
Untended Land Crumbles 93 30.72 59.14% -0.87 -0.5212 0.463

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2627 33.82% 32.0 76.28% -0.061 0.8024 0.408
B 2557 33.65% 31.79 76.57% -0.118 0.7129 -0.454
C 2607 33.4% 32.42 77.71% 0.494 1.1848 -0.088
D 2598 34.87% 31.75 76.17% 0.414 1.2501 0.206
E 2510 33.62% 31.61 74.58% -0.847 -0.1463 0.058
F 2315 33.87% 31.25 76.16% -0.141 0.6825 0.069
G 2116 33.62% 31.99 77.55% 0.391 1.2379 -0.082
H 2071 33.4% 32.12 77.26% -0.072 0.714 -0.073

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 102 0.0% 42.01 79.41% -0.264 0.4651 0.932
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 23.81% 21.22 78.26% -0.5
Skip Initial Invader Actions 212 19.48% 46.03 84.91% 1.003 0.3924 0.651
Start of Game Growth 326 23.6% 44.7 80.67% -1.554 -2.1552 0.274
Unlimited Undo 394 29.64% 40.42 80.96% 0.427 0.4424 0.632
Using Tokens but Not Events 594 17.21% 33.59 84.85% 1.06 1.0652 0.803

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 606 15.6 8.75%
II 1013 30.47 73.35%
III 1631 34.79 94.73%
IV 696 38.43 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 53
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1515
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 692
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 692
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 402
Lose: Invader deck ran out 10
Lose: Adversary condition 154
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 73
Lose: Blight pool ran out 275
Lose: Spirit destroyed 38

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-08 06:47:53 (Pacific Time)