Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 30.77% 17.38 30.77% 0.298 0.2062 -0.482
Blitz 0 47 23.08% 24.79 68.09% -0.789 -0.4903 -0.772
Dahan Insurrection 4 103 29.13% 55.14 61.17% -0.463 -0.59 0.138
Despicable Theft 2 11 18.18% 17.45 36.36% 0.174 0.9176 -0.512
Elemental Invocation 1 33 54.55% 28.24 39.39% -0.801 0.0573 -1.328
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 19.42% 44.31 73.3% -0.211 -0.7654 0.414
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 23.81% 22.38 38.1% -0.692 0.2169 -0.762
Rituals of Terror 3 19 36.84% 25.37 36.84% -0.925
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 12 25.0% 15.25 16.67% -1.544 -0.6814 -0.584
Second Wave 0 842 18.76% 28.04 90.97% -0.03 0.064 0.549
Varied Terrains 2 17 29.41% 15.06 47.06% -0.351 0.4657 -0.41
Ward the Shores 2 16 28.57% 28.25 62.5% 0.255 1.2762 -0.473

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 82 34.91 52.44% -1.014 -0.8735 -0.048
Aid From Lesser Spirits 80 38.69 77.5% 0.178 0.0833 -0.256
All Things Weaken 77 34.97 66.23% 0.328 0.643 0.66
Attenuated Essence 14 44.36 85.71% 0.558 0.5837 0.518
Back Against the Wall 89 39.67 68.54% 0.227 0.2717 -0.537
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 23.46 42.31% 0.442 0.6687
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 28.8 60.0% 0.316 0.5062
Disintegrating Ecosystem 70 31.91 68.57% 0.198 0.6081 -0.259
Downward Spiral 90 35.57 73.33% -0.187 -0.1358 -0.347
Erosion of Will 59 39.61 72.88% 1.041 1.3057 0.449
Intensifying Exploitation 25 18.6 32.0% -0.794 -0.4836 -1.143
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.37 78.26% 0.112 -0.3663 1.276
Memory Fades to Dust 86 34.63 77.91% 0.527 0.7472 0.377
Power Corrodes the Spirit 83 30.13 65.06% -0.24 -0.0524 -0.008
Promising Farmlands 58 34.98 65.52% -0.523 -0.2277 -0.839
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 22.52 56.52% 0.629 0.8426 -0.528
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 25.28 64.0% -0.266 0.1129 0.494
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 41.89 96.43% 0.788 0.0268 0.615
The Border of Life and Death 14 36.64 85.71% -0.359 -0.9108 -0.816
Thriving Communities 81 28.51 50.62% -0.369 -0.0557 -0.879
Thriving Crops 12 43.58 91.67% 0.159 0.2097 -0.293
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.24 75.47% 0.372 0.5553 -0.164
Untended Land Crumbles 93 30.72 59.14% -0.929 -0.5665 0.469

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2640 33.76% 31.97 76.17% -0.126 0.7255 0.406
B 2573 33.56% 31.76 76.49% -0.067 0.7537 -0.45
C 2620 33.39% 32.37 77.63% 0.462 1.1417 -0.104
D 2612 34.8% 31.71 76.03% 0.096 0.9232 0.193
E 2524 33.59% 31.55 74.45% -0.896 -0.2089 0.066
F 2327 33.73% 31.25 76.19% -0.091 0.7117 0.069
G 2128 33.48% 31.94 77.49% 0.436 1.2911 -0.076
H 2077 33.35% 32.07 77.18% 0.246 1.011 -0.06

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 102 0.0% 42.01 79.41% -0.863 -0.1415 0.956
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 23.81% 21.22 78.26% -0.507
Skip Initial Invader Actions 213 19.35% 45.94 84.98% 0.756 0.1473 0.703
Start of Game Growth 327 23.51% 44.65 80.73% -1.304 -1.9277 0.261
Unlimited Undo 398 30.18% 40.28 80.4% 0.556 0.5624 0.566
Using Tokens but Not Events 598 17.67% 33.52 84.45% 0.942 0.9584 0.752

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 614 15.54 8.63%
II 1014 30.46 73.37%
III 1638 34.79 94.75%
IV 700 38.44 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 53
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1522
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 693
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 696
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 407
Lose: Invader deck ran out 10
Lose: Adversary condition 154
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 73
Lose: Blight pool ran out 278
Lose: Spirit destroyed 38

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-11 06:22:48 (Pacific Time)