Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 37.5% 19.38 37.5% -0.012 -0.152 -0.319
Blitz 0 40 18.75% 28.15 80.0% 0.082 0.1933
Dahan Insurrection 4 84 34.52% 60.18 63.1% -0.518 -0.7536 0.065
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 26.0 50.0% -0.244
Elemental Invocation 1 23 60.87% 30.78 43.48% -0.431 0.3713 -1.296
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 188 20.74% 47.34 77.13% -0.75 -1.5238 0.283
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 26.67% 30.07 53.33% -0.253 0.5199 -0.936
Rituals of Terror 3 9 44.44% 25.67 22.22% -0.892
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 33.33% 25.83 33.33% -0.506 0.5512 0.076
Second Wave 0 706 18.7% 28.39 92.63% 0.414 0.4944 -0.077
Varied Terrains 2 9 33.33% 14.89 44.44%
Ward the Shores 2 12 30.0% 32.33 75.0% 0.846 1.709 -0.075

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 66 35.52 54.55% -0.817 -0.6571 -0.148
Aid From Lesser Spirits 67 38.09 80.6% 0.468 0.3813 -0.454
All Things Weaken 68 36.12 70.59% 0.474 0.8157 0.31
Attenuated Essence 7 40.71 85.71% 0.237 0.3109 -0.207
Back Against the Wall 76 38.66 67.11% 0.471 0.5463 -0.679
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 13.14 7.14% -0.756 -0.5652
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 28.0 58.33% 0.185 0.3085
Disintegrating Ecosystem 67 31.03 67.16% -0.663 -0.2904 -0.433
Downward Spiral 72 37.88 75.0% 0.224 0.3611 -0.569
Erosion of Will 49 40.16 75.51% -0.579 -0.2848 -0.078
Intensifying Exploitation 12 12.25 8.33% -1.385 -1.1464
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 43 36.6 76.74% -1.353 -1.8853 1.236
Memory Fades to Dust 76 34.42 77.63% 0.321 0.6014 -0.102
Power Corrodes the Spirit 73 30.07 61.64% -0.442 -0.2893 0.002
Promising Farmlands 47 37.15 68.09% 0.296 0.6427 -0.9
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 20.25 43.75% -0.185 0.0102 -0.596
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 27.0 100.0% 0.492 0.943
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 42.76 95.24% -0.371 -1.1113 0.643
The Border of Life and Death 8 42.75 87.5% -0.582
Thriving Communities 70 29.49 54.29% -0.556 -0.2571 -0.823
Thriving Crops 7 34.57 85.71% 0.079 -0.0237 -0.568
Unnatural Proliferation 89 34.98 76.4% 0.416 0.5609 -0.403
Untended Land Crumbles 83 33.12 66.27% 0.795 1.0947 0.459

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2078 34.96% 33.84 79.31% 0.375 1.3689 0.643
B 2050 35.09% 33.47 79.9% 0.285 1.2027 -0.604
C 2105 34.05% 33.83 80.05% 0.185 0.9275 -0.171
D 2083 36.27% 33.35 79.36% -0.781 0.1705 0.102
E 2028 34.29% 33.5 78.3% -0.305 0.4756 0.159
F 1863 34.29% 32.96 78.96% 0.165 1.058 -0.044
G 1705 34.68% 33.54 81.17% 0.123 0.9787 -0.045
H 1651 34.14% 33.91 79.89% 0.007 0.8555 0.005

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 88 0.0% 46.25 79.55% -0.761 -0.1314 0.952
Not Using Events or Tokens 19 29.41% 21.05 73.68% -0.792 -0.2862 -0.355
Skip Initial Invader Actions 165 22.02% 53.23 92.12% -0.275 -0.9103 0.675
Start of Game Growth 251 25.26% 51.27 87.65% -0.6 -0.9897 0.12
Unlimited Undo 324 31.32% 43.71 84.88% 0.147 0.1916 0.199
Using Tokens but Not Events 432 15.32% 36.92 86.81% -0.204 -0.2311 0.899

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 382 17.67 9.16%
II 831 30.7 74.13%
III 1373 34.75 94.76%
IV 585 38.22 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 35
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1273
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 574
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 582
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 222
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 122
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 62
Lose: Blight pool ran out 232
Lose: Spirit destroyed 24

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)