Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 28.57% 19.29 42.86% -0.443 -0.6982 -0.317
Blitz 0 36 21.43% 30.17 83.33% -0.204 -0.007
Dahan Insurrection 4 70 37.14% 67.61 70.0% -0.93 -1.3727 0.072
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 26.0 50.0% -0.646 0.1663 -0.349
Elemental Invocation 1 19 57.89% 33.16 52.63% -0.88
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 175 22.29% 48.29 79.43% 1.195 0.5504 0.122
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 33.33% 34.33 58.33% -0.907 -0.2717 -0.944
Rituals of Terror 3 6 66.67% 38.5 33.33% -0.154 -0.0528 -0.904
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.104
Second Wave 0 613 18.76% 28.77 94.29% 1.065 1.1313 -0.41
Varied Terrains 2 7 42.86% 19.14 57.14% -0.387 0.2356
Ward the Shores 2 7 50.0% 33.43 57.14% -0.798 0.2863 -0.073

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 51 38.33 56.86% -0.684 -0.4421 -0.28
Aid From Lesser Spirits 53 38.92 79.25% 0.054 -0.0237 -0.369
All Things Weaken 51 38.63 70.59% -0.287 0.1055 0.39
Back Against the Wall 60 39.53 70.0% -1.426 -1.368 -0.574
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 12.33 16.67% -0.839 -0.6369
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 6.0 0.0% -0.844 -0.6335
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 33.91 67.86% 0.595 1.0184 -0.571
Downward Spiral 66 39.36 77.27% 0.993 1.2288 -0.739
Erosion of Will 43 39.09 74.42% -1.042 -0.7324 0.345
Intensifying Exploitation 2 0.0 0.0% -0.433 -0.1451
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 41.94 96.97% 0.174 -0.3198 1.241
Memory Fades to Dust 56 35.89 80.36% 1.465 1.8011 -0.253
Power Corrodes the Spirit 56 31.43 69.64% -0.307 -0.0871 0.392
Promising Farmlands 36 38.44 69.44% 0.321 0.7741 -0.959
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 10.5 33.33% 0.048 0.0994
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 27.0 100.0% 0.606 1.0051
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 43.95 100.0% 0.231 -0.4802 0.628
The Border of Life and Death 6 44.17 83.33% 0.338 0.0026 -0.548
Thriving Communities 56 33.45 51.79% -0.322 0.0408 -1.099
Thriving Crops 5 34.6 80.0% 0.831 0.6334 -0.53
Unnatural Proliferation 68 36.44 76.47% 0.349 0.5644 -0.452
Untended Land Crumbles 68 34.07 64.71% -0.28 0.0013 0.327

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1574 34.35% 36.18 82.59% -0.159 0.5813 0.528
B 1566 35.33% 35.61 83.52% -0.213 0.5124 -0.612
C 1615 33.72% 36.17 83.03% 0.168 0.7506 -0.324
D 1628 34.84% 35.53 83.05% 0.075 0.7862 0.384
E 1572 34.27% 35.98 82.82% -0.007 0.5586 0.146
F 1415 33.5% 35.54 82.61% 0.009 0.679 0.272
G 1359 33.81% 35.6 84.84% 0.113 0.7645 -0.208
H 1321 32.55% 36.35 83.95% 0.071 0.642 -0.132

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 78 0.0% 50.56 83.33% -0.85 -0.0735 0.961
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 41.67% 23.43 71.43% -0.429
Skip Initial Invader Actions 151 19.79% 56.44 96.03% 0.291 -0.3266 0.589
Start of Game Growth 229 25.43% 53.87 90.83% 0.931 0.5822 -0.095
Unlimited Undo 268 32.39% 47.26 87.69% -0.126 -0.1327 0.027
Using Tokens but Not Events 374 14.77% 39.25 87.97% -0.421 -0.4313 0.99

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 241 20.4 14.11%
II 700 31.01 79.43%
III 1093 34.76 95.24%
IV 430 38.07 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1024
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 517
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 428
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 99
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 85
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 53
Lose: Blight pool ran out 176
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)