Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 0.0% 32.5 -4.125 100.0% 0.196 0.4794
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 22.22% 34.22 -0.112 88.89% -0.331 0.0634
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 8 37.5% 45.63 5.703 100.0% 0.281 1.1416
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 33.33% 47.67 5.361 100.0% 0.21 1.4604
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 55.5 7.343 100.0% 0.115 1.6493
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 50.0 4.123 75.0% -0.274 1.7939
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 47.06% 59.29 8.529 82.35% -0.693 1.3844
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 20.0% 23.0 -6.732 100.0% 0.106 0.1492
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 14.29% 34.14 -0.571 85.71% -0.599 -0.6244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 27.27% 42.73 3.073 100.0% 0.293 0.2928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14 35.71% 48.79 6.585 100.0% 0.4 0.6929
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 12 20.0% 50.58 7.517 91.67% -0.262 0.1085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 68.0 12.369 100.0% 0.013 0.851
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 46.15% 65.0 11.363 92.31% -0.105 1.1434
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 80.0% 23.6 -5.832 100.0% 0.237 0.5676
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 16.67% 38.33 2.163 100.0% 0.239 0.729
The Kingdom of England 2 4 13 38.46% 41.54 2.382 100.0% 0.369 1.3336
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 50.0% 48.0 4.356 100.0% 0.166 1.7459
The Kingdom of England 4 7 27 11.11% 56.85 9.355 100.0% 0.544 2.0579
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 52.67 7.553 66.67% -0.576 1.4949
The Kingdom of England 6 11 43 46.51% 60.51 10.396 76.74% -1.625 0.632
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 18.0 -6.289 100.0% 0.169 0.6943
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.667 75.0% -0.418 0.4706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 41.33 3.854 83.33% -0.072 2.0559
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 66.67% 54.57 7.995 100.0% 0.279 2.463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 58.33% 56.58 8.984 91.67% -0.05 2.1005
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 61.0 10.654 85.71% -0.378 1.4485
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 20 55.0% 72.9 15.815 95.0% 0.083 2.2112
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 90.0% 23.7 -6.71 100.0% 0.623 0.7111
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.379 100.0% 0.179 0.1904
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16 50.0% 35.63 -0.574 100.0% 0.529 0.7482
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 55.56% 42.67 3.503 88.89% -0.221 0.0619
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 40.0% 52.8 5.813 100.0% 0.116 0.8867
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 52.0 7.652 100.0% 0.05 1.2171
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 54.09 7.676 95.45% 0.198 1.3293
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -4.094 100.0% 0.258 0.1358
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 42.5 1.475 100.0% 0.076 0.791
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 39.2 1.052 100.0% 0.254 0.6916
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 16.0 -10.756 0.0% -0.905 0.3536
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 53.0 7.203 100.0% 0.047 1.1869
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 6.363 75.0% -0.385 1.6753
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 83.33% 42.5 3.162 33.33% -1.609 0.3266

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 38.6 -2.618 100.0% 0.211 0.7883
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 0.0% 83.25 16.735 100.0% 0.107 0.508
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 26.0 -7.763 100.0% 0.023 0.4516
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 60.5 3.749 100.0% 0.081 0.4621
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 45 26.67% 48.71 3.279 95.56% 0.087 0.4531
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 40.67 -2.514 66.67% -0.598 -0.1566
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 61.0 9.588 100.0% 0.022 0.6506
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 19.801 100.0% 0.069 0.7183
Second Wave 0 130 23.85% 31.7 -2.26 97.69% 0.903 1.3192
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 36.0 -1.076 100.0% 0.036 1.0727

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 14 38.21 -2.683 71.43% -1.292 0.7785
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 37.64 0.115 92.86% -0.126 1.7926
All Things Weaken 16 38.19 -3.689 75.0% -1.473 0.682
Back Against the Wall 12 43.0 1.002 100.0% 0.392 2.4879
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 35.29 -2.19 78.57% -0.979 1.2447
Downward Spiral 20 42.8 -0.253 75.0% -1.057 0.9601
Erosion of Will 14 40.79 -0.378 85.71% -0.769 1.4401
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 43.3 -0.345 100.0% 0.347 1.0516
Memory Fades to Dust 11 47.73 2.073 81.82% -0.616 1.5986
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 40.62 0.544 100.0% 0.56 2.5797
Promising Farmlands 11 38.0 -1.059 81.82% -0.976 1.2366
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 36.0 -2.283 100.0% 0.187 0.6224
Thriving Communities 16 32.94 -4.688 68.75% -1.52 0.5774
Unnatural Proliferation 18 37.89 -1.241 88.89% -0.859 1.2189
Untended Land Crumbles 12 39.17 -2.129 75.0% -1.18 0.919

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 366 37.57% 40.14 -0.706 93.17% -0.114 -1.2035
B 365 36.84% 40.85 0.074 94.52% 0.245 -0.9404
C 351 38.84% 40.39 0.019 92.88% -0.119 -1.5339
D 366 37.78% 39.77 -0.768 93.72% 0.079 -1.0985
E 336 38.44% 41.41 0.508 92.56% -0.047 -1.3241
F 318 34.6% 41.68 -0.016 93.08% -0.077 -1.3203
G 333 37.27% 41.1 0.167 93.99% 0.113 -1.1175
H 305 38.8% 41.97 0.606 93.44% -0.018 -1.2582

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 32.14 -5.584 100.0% 0.19 2.2345
Skip Initial Invader Actions 56 27.78% 58.02 4.106 92.86% 0.429 -0.2752
Start of Game Growth 68 28.79% 56.04 4.269 95.59% 0.908 0.4535
Unlimited Undo 62 40.0% 53.0 1.687 87.1% -1.098 -1.5106
Using Tokens but Not Events 40 21.21% 43.58 0.531 95.0% 0.125 0.0777

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7 22.34 28.57%
II 122 30.75 86.07%
III 279 34.26 94.98%
IV 140 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 260
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 140
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)