Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 57.5 100.0% 0.218 0.2244 0.239
Blitz 0 24 31.25% 32.96 95.83% 0.039 0.5348
Dahan Insurrection 4 56 33.93% 71.48 78.57% 0.04 0.1075 0.263
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 100.0% -0.146
Elemental Invocation 1 17 58.82% 31.24 47.06% 0.065 0.6095 -0.975
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 154 24.03% 50.25 80.52% -0.146 0.0458 -0.186
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 41.2 70.0% -0.437
Rituals of Terror 3 4 100.0% 57.75 50.0% -0.443
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.104
Second Wave 0 505 19.6% 29.49 95.25% 0.357 0.9266 -0.475
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 32.67 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 75.0% 46.8 80.0% 0.058

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 45 38.09 62.22% 0.022 2.0142 -0.169
Aid From Lesser Spirits 42 41.67 83.33% 0.109 1.8765 -0.382
All Things Weaken 48 39.79 70.83% -0.303 1.7683 0.196
Back Against the Wall 51 42.61 78.43% -0.246 1.6874 -0.645
Disintegrating Ecosystem 54 33.59 68.52% -0.195 1.9029 -0.672
Downward Spiral 53 38.55 71.7% -0.809 1.1002 -1.039
Erosion of Will 35 43.49 85.71% 0.133 2.228 0.062
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 43.56 100.0% 0.169 0.6969 0.972
Memory Fades to Dust 45 37.22 75.56% -0.436 1.6688 -0.266
Power Corrodes the Spirit 42 36.24 71.43% -0.136 1.792 -0.001
Promising Farmlands 28 37.96 67.86% -1.485 0.5421 -1.403
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 43.95 100.0% 0.039 0.5446 0.52
Thriving Communities 47 35.53 57.45% 0.22 2.2845 -1.668
Unnatural Proliferation 58 34.62 74.14% -0.868 1.0669 -0.611
Untended Land Crumbles 55 32.18 60.0% 0.113 2.1448 0.251

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1253 34.03% 38.98 87.07% -0.128 0.5567 0.298
B 1262 35.71% 38.47 88.03% -0.242 0.417 -0.572
C 1281 33.93% 39.06 87.51% 0.041 0.477 -0.054
D 1286 34.95% 38.17 87.33% -0.484 0.1879 0.356
E 1267 35.44% 38.68 86.9% 0.145 0.6403 0.138
F 1126 34.34% 38.51 87.57% 0.693 1.3194 0.288
G 1085 34.7% 37.9 88.76% -0.013 0.5415 -0.056
H 1047 34.75% 39.14 87.87% 0.049 0.6668 -0.34

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 64 0.0% 55.06 95.31% 0.242 2.4468 0.766
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 41.67% 23.43 71.43% 0.076 0.3078 -0.432
Skip Initial Invader Actions 135 21.43% 57.04 97.04% 0.229 -0.8994 0.372
Start of Game Growth 203 27.15% 54.48 91.13% 0.147 -0.2896 -0.164
Unlimited Undo 220 31.95% 49.87 90.45% -0.016 -0.518 -0.036
Using Tokens but Not Events 281 16.44% 44.57 94.66% 1.029 1.181 1.271

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 118 22.67 22.88%
II 587 31.1 81.94%
III 904 34.68 95.46%
IV 358 37.94 99.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 27
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 849
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 445
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 356
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 73
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 130
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-27 02:54:44 (Pacific Time)