Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 20.0% 29.9 -5.244 90.0% -0.243 0.0465
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 25.0% 33.17 -0.999 83.33% -0.63 -0.2162
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 41.67% 44.92 4.978 100.0% 0.393 1.2763
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 36.36% 45.91 3.664 90.91% -0.254 0.9885
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 80.0% 52.4 6.608 80.0% -0.497 0.9994
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 44.6 2.829 60.0% -0.725 1.214
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 21 57.14% 58.95 8.356 80.95% -0.949 1.0936
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 14.29% 23.29 -6.457 100.0% 0.2 0.2411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 9.09% 37.36 0.001 90.91% -0.33 -0.3487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 40.91% 40.59 1.689 95.45% 0.358 0.3712
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 30.0% 48.9 6.26 100.0% 0.608 0.8918
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 16 28.57% 54.06 8.365 93.75% -0.099 0.2606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 65.33 12.508 100.0% 0.058 0.8825
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 18 61.11% 65.28 11.39 88.89% -0.287 0.9524
The Kingdom of England 0 1 14 50.0% 27.93 -4.724 92.86% 0.049 0.3788
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 38.25 1.984 100.0% 0.402 0.9186
The Kingdom of England 2 4 21 38.1% 42.1 2.469 100.0% 0.581 1.554
The Kingdom of England 3 6 15 42.86% 52.93 6.143 100.0% 0.524 2.1041
The Kingdom of England 4 7 37 16.22% 57.81 9.624 100.0% 0.779 2.2737
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 54.5 8.827 75.0% -0.294 1.7763
The Kingdom of England 6 11 61 41.38% 65.05 12.087 83.61% -1.247 0.9972
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 -3.309 100.0% 0.222 0.7332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 32.75 -1.774 75.0% -0.238 0.6642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 66.67% 40.22 1.978 77.78% -0.646 1.4954
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 77.78% 48.4 4.956 80.0% -0.297 1.9012
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 53.85% 58.69 9.933 92.31% 0.027 2.188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 14 71.43% 61.36 9.768 78.57% -0.744 1.0731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 30 56.67% 75.07 17.168 93.33% -0.018 2.0733
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 15 66.67% 24.33 -7.078 93.33% 0.19 0.2787
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 34.4 0.532 100.0% 0.226 0.2607
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 21 47.62% 37.9 0.206 100.0% 0.564 0.8011
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 53.85% 40.15 1.804 84.62% -0.419 -0.1284
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 33.33% 56.0 6.302 100.0% 0.175 0.9558
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 52.0 7.638 100.0% 0.06 1.2285
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 31 66.67% 56.03 8.302 93.55% 0.156 1.2784
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 57.14% 26.29 -4.194 100.0% 0.271 0.182
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 33.33% 40.0 1.12 100.0% 0.164 0.9433
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 71.43% 39.86 1.605 100.0% 0.381 0.7929
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 75.0% 37.0 -0.271 50.0% -1.415 -0.1709
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 65.0 10.998 100.0% 0.152 1.2596
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 50.0% 53.0 5.677 75.0% -0.491 1.4931
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 81.82% 48.33 4.645 41.67% -1.845 0.0273

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 6 16.67% 37.67 -3.299 100.0% 0.256 0.8216
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 22.22% 71.0 11.725 77.78% -0.837 -0.4369
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 3.921 100.0% 0.051 0.3247
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 60.5 3.641 100.0% 0.152 0.6548
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 67 25.37% 49.81 3.304 91.04% -0.122 0.2432
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 33.33% 40.67 -3.074 66.67% -0.869 -0.4231
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 67.0 10.696 66.67% -0.627 0.0177
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 19.385 100.0% 0.165 0.8114
Second Wave 0 149 26.17% 31.72 -2.572 96.64% 0.701 1.1311
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 64.0 9.482 100.0% 0.1 1.1314

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 23 39.74 -1.925 73.91% -1.615 0.4549
Aid From Lesser Spirits 19 39.47 0.146 94.74% 0.011 1.924
All Things Weaken 21 41.81 -2.327 76.19% -1.489 0.6701
Back Against the Wall 21 39.9 -1.471 85.71% -0.861 1.2265
Disintegrating Ecosystem 21 31.14 -4.426 76.19% -1.376 0.8462
Downward Spiral 27 39.85 -2.329 70.37% -1.375 0.6469
Erosion of Will 19 43.63 -0.012 89.47% -0.587 1.621
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 41.87 -0.671 100.0% 0.475 1.1539
Memory Fades to Dust 17 49.12 2.529 88.24% -0.475 1.7399
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 44.19 1.517 100.0% 0.642 2.6633
Promising Farmlands 16 43.38 0.583 87.5% -0.82 1.3883
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11 39.27 -0.472 100.0% 0.298 0.709
Thriving Communities 26 38.77 -2.687 69.23% -1.73 0.3582
Unnatural Proliferation 27 39.07 -1.167 85.19% -1.043 1.0377
Untended Land Crumbles 28 36.39 -3.477 71.43% -1.801 0.3012

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 508 39.08% 41.05 -0.75 91.93% -0.076 -0.7634
B 519 39.8% 42.02 0.052 92.87% 0.12 -0.6641
C 502 39.51% 41.93 -0.098 92.03% -0.069 -1.0815
D 527 40.0% 41.25 -0.366 92.41% 0.037 -0.7405
E 500 40.85% 42.75 0.709 92.2% 0.05 -0.8448
F 461 37.75% 43.22 0.749 92.62% 0.118 -0.7227
G 467 40.31% 41.39 -0.538 92.08% -0.21 -1.0424
H 441 41.76% 42.78 0.191 92.74% 0.1 -0.7391

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 58.53 3.486 100.0% 0.487 2.5396
Skip Initial Invader Actions 69 26.67% 59.14 3.801 94.2% 0.287 -0.3992
Start of Game Growth 94 29.76% 58.11 5.149 95.74% 0.667 0.1978
Unlimited Undo 89 39.24% 53.29 1.899 89.89% -0.635 -1.0577
Using Tokens but Not Events 64 22.45% 49.3 1.192 93.75% 0.135 0.0844

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19 22.37 31.58%
II 189 30.88 85.19%
III 383 34.39 95.04%
IV 194 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 357
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 157
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 194
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 13
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 39
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)