Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 57.5 100.0% 0.208 0.7034 0.269
Blitz 0 23 26.67% 31.57 95.65% 0.022 0.4654
Dahan Insurrection 4 55 32.73% 70.75 78.18% -0.468 -0.3703 0.306
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 52.0 100.0% -0.155
Elemental Invocation 1 16 56.25% 31.44 43.75% -0.437 0.1085 -0.946
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 154 24.03% 50.25 80.52% -0.416 -0.1846 -0.142
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 41.2 70.0% -0.423
Rituals of Terror 3 4 100.0% 57.75 50.0% -0.486
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 90.0 100.0% 0.101
Second Wave 0 495 19.8% 29.48 95.15% 0.406 1.0983 -0.465
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 32.67 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 75.0% 46.8 80.0% 0.059

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 45 38.09 62.22% 0.192 2.1629 -0.197
Aid From Lesser Spirits 42 41.67 83.33% 0.054 1.8322 -0.376
All Things Weaken 46 39.7 69.57% -0.664 1.3853 0.207
Back Against the Wall 51 42.61 78.43% 0.006 1.9448 -0.656
Disintegrating Ecosystem 54 33.59 68.52% -0.439 1.689 -0.62
Downward Spiral 53 38.55 71.7% -0.999 0.9622 -1.013
Erosion of Will 32 41.19 84.38% -0.21 1.8716 0.038
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 43.56 100.0% 0.066 0.568 0.943
Memory Fades to Dust 45 37.22 75.56% -0.403 1.738 -0.255
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40 36.58 70.0% -0.841 1.1398 0.007
Promising Farmlands 27 38.63 66.67% -1.676 0.3456 -1.353
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 43.95 100.0% 0.057 0.5534 0.496
Thriving Communities 47 35.53 57.45% 0.327 2.3867 -1.648
Unnatural Proliferation 53 35.81 73.58% -0.65 1.3074 -0.208
Untended Land Crumbles 55 32.18 60.0% 0.298 2.3316 0.257

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1229 34.01% 38.98 86.9% 0.114 0.8507 0.286
B 1242 35.61% 38.47 87.84% -0.399 0.2986 -0.585
C 1256 34.02% 39.18 87.34% 0.257 0.7272 -0.092
D 1257 34.88% 38.33 87.11% -0.007 0.7022 0.435
E 1239 35.52% 38.74 86.68% -0.092 0.4522 0.143
F 1096 34.43% 38.68 87.32% 0.716 1.3771 0.384
G 1069 34.72% 37.86 88.59% -0.26 0.3708 -0.158
H 1026 34.78% 39.25 87.62% -0.264 0.4011 -0.353

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 63 0.0% 54.44 95.24% 0.272 2.5008 0.758
Not Using Events or Tokens 13 45.45% 23.31 69.23% -0.431
Skip Initial Invader Actions 134 21.43% 56.77 97.01% 0.296 -0.6839 0.351
Start of Game Growth 202 27.15% 54.28 91.09% -0.159 -0.6153 -0.181
Unlimited Undo 217 32.34% 49.76 90.32% 0.57 0.0189 -0.066
Using Tokens but Not Events 276 16.74% 44.55 94.57% 1.233 1.3876 1.267

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 117 22.65 23.08%
II 577 31.08 81.63%
III 886 34.66 95.37%
IV 348 37.91 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 27
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 832
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 435
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 346
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 73
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 129
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)