Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 30.77% 17.38 30.77% 0.158 0.1529 -0.51
Blitz 0 46 23.68% 25.33 69.57% -0.814 -0.5422 -0.602
Dahan Insurrection 4 103 29.13% 55.14 61.17% -0.288 -0.4867 0.089
Despicable Theft 2 11 18.18% 17.45 36.36% -0.325 0.5622 -0.492
Elemental Invocation 1 30 60.0% 26.17 33.33% -0.561 0.3868 -1.301
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 19.42% 44.31 73.3% -0.431 -1.0304 0.28
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 23.81% 22.38 38.1% -0.762 0.0865 -0.715
Rituals of Terror 3 19 36.84% 25.37 36.84% -1.014
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 30.0% 18.3 20.0% -1.065 -0.0551 -0.444
Second Wave 0 831 18.77% 28.07 90.97% 0.069 0.1401 0.441
Varied Terrains 2 17 29.41% 15.06 47.06% -0.151 0.6164 -0.382
Ward the Shores 2 16 28.57% 28.25 62.5% -0.232 0.8281 -0.43

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 78 36.04 55.13% -0.661 -0.4806 0.006
Aid From Lesser Spirits 80 38.69 77.5% 0.568 0.5004 -0.24
All Things Weaken 77 34.97 66.23% 0.306 0.6198 0.6
Attenuated Essence 14 44.36 85.71% 0.694 0.7594 0.505
Back Against the Wall 89 39.67 68.54% 0.834 0.9096 -0.605
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25 23.4 44.0% 0.958 1.161
Burn Brightest Before the End 18 30.06 61.11% 0.556 0.737
Disintegrating Ecosystem 69 31.57 68.12% 0.348 0.7667 -0.231
Downward Spiral 90 35.57 73.33% -0.145 -0.0295 -0.395
Erosion of Will 58 39.34 72.41% 0.76 1.0484 0.431
Intensifying Exploitation 21 16.33 33.33% -0.25 0.0124 -1.166
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.37 78.26% 0.141 -0.3721 1.268
Memory Fades to Dust 86 34.63 77.91% -0.111 0.1149 0.354
Power Corrodes the Spirit 83 30.13 65.06% 0.331 0.5396 -0.026
Promising Farmlands 58 34.98 65.52% -0.626 -0.3283 -0.815
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 22.52 56.52% 0.458 0.6527 -0.543
Slow Dissolution of Will 24 26.33 66.67% -0.192 0.1892
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 41.89 96.43% 0.426 -0.174 0.652
The Border of Life and Death 14 36.64 85.71% 0.111 -0.4303 -0.794
Thriving Communities 81 28.51 50.62% -0.563 -0.2183 -0.886
Thriving Crops 12 43.58 91.67% 0.185 0.1982 -0.361
Unnatural Proliferation 105 33.38 75.24% 0.388 0.5187 -0.162
Untended Land Crumbles 93 30.72 59.14% -1.28 -0.8922 0.359

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2602 33.92% 32.08 76.56% 0.026 0.8935 0.414
B 2537 33.77% 31.86 76.9% -0.181 0.6409 -0.411
C 2586 33.52% 32.51 77.84% 0.484 1.1644 -0.165
D 2577 34.89% 31.83 76.52% 0.587 1.4012 0.219
E 2483 33.54% 31.71 74.99% -0.758 -0.0786 0.089
F 2287 33.84% 31.43 76.56% -0.059 0.7332 0.069
G 2093 33.66% 32.09 77.83% 0.356 1.1965 -0.08
H 2056 33.35% 32.21 77.48% -0.401 0.3682 -0.09

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 102 0.0% 42.01 79.41% -0.483 0.301 0.756
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 23.81% 21.22 78.26% -0.481
Skip Initial Invader Actions 207 17.45% 46.89 86.96% 1.02 0.3963 0.633
Start of Game Growth 319 22.69% 45.52 82.45% -1.158 -1.7662 0.231
Unlimited Undo 389 29.79% 40.9 81.75% 0.252 0.2966 0.563
Using Tokens but Not Events 586 17.49% 33.73 85.32% 1.039 0.9842 1.095

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 592 15.67 8.95%
II 1000 30.47 73.6%
III 1623 34.79 94.7%
IV 694 38.42 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 53
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1507
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 685
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 690
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 394
Lose: Invader deck ran out 10
Lose: Adversary condition 148
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 73
Lose: Blight pool ran out 269
Lose: Spirit destroyed 38

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-05 06:17:53 (Pacific Time)