Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 17 17.65% 30.53 -1.289 100.0% 0.594 0.8746
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 66.67% 31.58 -1.741 83.33% -0.067 0.3061
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 27 48.15% 41.7 3.844 85.19% -0.16 0.6875
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 23 65.22% 42.65 3.824 82.61% -0.318 0.9198
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 73.33% 47.8 6.977 80.0% -0.078 1.444
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 8.862 80.0% -0.43 1.5977
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 19 84.21% 51.11 7.236 63.16% -1.485 0.6076
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 35 18.18% 26.77 -3.182 94.29% 0.309 0.3558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 53 30.19% 31.62 -1.19 88.68% 0.272 0.2438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 61 54.1% 40.23 3.59 90.16% 0.722 0.7191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 55 43.64% 46.73 6.505 92.73% 0.488 0.7727
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 38 28.95% 51.42 8.568 89.47% 0.061 0.4389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 7 71.43% 59.29 13.37 100.0% 0.535 1.3683
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 27 74.07% 52.59 9.698 70.37% -0.701 0.5485
The Kingdom of England 0 1 31 29.03% 24.68 -4.146 90.32% 0.05 0.3824
The Kingdom of England 1 3 15 46.67% 33.07 0.058 80.0% -0.266 0.2168
The Kingdom of England 2 4 32 62.5% 34.13 0.641 78.13% -0.466 0.4914
The Kingdom of England 3 6 42 47.62% 34.45 0.604 50.0% -1.928 -0.3503
The Kingdom of England 4 7 55 63.64% 42.98 4.431 65.45% -1.443 0.0793
The Kingdom of England 5 9 14 78.57% 45.71 6.065 57.14% -1.213 0.8511
The Kingdom of England 6 11 126 52.38% 52.58 9.316 62.7% -1.622 0.6336
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 27 37.04% 29.11 -1.997 88.89% -0.083 0.4409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 47.06% 35.94 0.831 88.24% 0.068 0.9593
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 35 48.57% 43.14 4.587 82.86% -0.283 1.8453
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 41 60.98% 40.44 3.813 51.22% -1.916 0.2702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 31 54.84% 52.26 8.642 74.19% -0.549 1.5959
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 21 66.67% 60.81 12.817 80.95% -0.177 1.6412
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 44 43.18% 64.18 14.569 79.55% -0.885 1.2504
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 17 29.41% 22.18 -5.066 88.24% 0.062 0.147
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 34 41.18% 29.35 -1.444 88.24% 0.303 0.3121
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 40 15.0% 35.38 0.493 95.0% 0.358 0.5749
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 37 32.43% 43.35 4.911 91.89% 0.316 0.6005
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 44 40.91% 44.48 4.651 81.82% -0.646 0.1317
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 17 29.41% 55.88 9.398 94.12% -0.224 0.9407
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 186 30.65% 53.62 7.69 83.87% -0.829 0.3038
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 33.33% 30.22 -2.173 100.0% 0.514 0.3966
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 55.56% 33.44 -0.097 88.89% -0.212 0.4768
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 40.0% 42.8 4.199 100.0% 0.293 0.7293
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 62.5% 46.63 6.029 87.5% -0.395 0.8793
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 77.78% 54.56 10.713 100.0% 0.683 1.8403
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 27.0 -7.165 0.0% -0.924 1.1122
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 26 80.77% 40.73 2.248 23.08% -3.044 -1.0942

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 29 31.03% 38.0 -1.118 72.41% -1.281 -0.7087
Dahan Insurrection 4 55 11.11% 53.71 9.883 87.27% -0.166 0.2348
Elemental Invocation 1 5 60.0% 35.2 0.129 80.0% -0.424 0.0416
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 210 12.38% 51.84 5.449 91.9% 0.3 0.675
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.32 83.33% 0.269 0.7165
Rituals of Terror 3 6 66.67% 34.67 -0.305 50.0% -0.902 -0.2805
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 50.0 9.485 100.0% 0.254 0.8782
Second Wave 0 181 42.54% 34.69 -0.01 83.43% -0.432 -0.0131
Ward the Shores 2 25 44.0% 31.0 -2.19 64.0% -1.274 -0.2434

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 49 35.88 -1.217 69.39% -1.324 0.7443
Aid From Lesser Spirits 70 41.66 1.391 74.29% -1.083 0.8339
All Things Weaken 27 28.11 -4.442 48.15% -1.929 0.2313
Back Against the Wall 61 35.57 -1.23 67.21% -1.352 0.74
Disintegrating Ecosystem 55 32.11 -2.248 63.64% -1.443 0.7783
Downward Spiral 85 30.64 -3.11 60.0% -1.853 0.1612
Erosion of Will 52 35.46 -1.564 59.62% -1.542 0.6692
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25 36.88 -1.15 84.0% -0.585 0.1269
Memory Fades to Dust 74 31.31 -2.584 64.86% -1.528 0.6882
Power Corrodes the Spirit 39 35.69 -2.274 61.54% -1.509 0.5109
Promising Farmlands 54 34.11 -2.389 59.26% -1.836 0.3784
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 45.31 2.431 92.31% 0.17 0.5869
Thriving Communities 24 43.29 1.208 66.67% -0.931 1.1764
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.533 30.77% -2.276 -0.0604
Unnatural Proliferation 41 44.71 2.526 75.61% -0.581 1.4996
Untended Land Crumbles 41 40.98 0.397 63.41% -1.587 0.5087

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1370 35.72% 36.8 -0.199 83.87% 0.335 -0.7387
B 1320 36.94% 35.74 -1.016 82.12% -0.002 -1.1662
C 1349 35.14% 36.97 -0.009 83.47% 0.058 -1.3392
D 1281 36.13% 35.7 -1.446 82.2% -0.297 -1.4551
E 628 34.55% 41.86 1.546 89.17% 0.414 -0.843
F 714 38.54% 37.74 -0.436 83.61% -0.262 -1.4878
G 651 40.65% 39.15 0.531 85.71% 0.134 -1.0785
H 651 36.65% 40.11 1.114 86.18% 0.227 -0.9941
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.611 60.0% -0.131 -1.0666
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.359 55.56% -0.15 -1.0198
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.771 50.0% -0.296 -1.2409
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -6.108 100.0% 0.02 -0.9634
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.035 100.0% 0.165 -0.4601
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.611 60.0% -0.131 -0.796

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 16.0 -8.489 70.0% -1.808 0.2312
Not Using Events or Tokens 100 42.22% 29.14 -2.321 69.0% -0.478 -0.2577
Skip Initial Invader Actions 128 21.05% 38.55 0.727 87.5% -0.279 -0.9853
Start of Game Growth 215 16.42% 42.56 3.584 90.7% 1.182 0.7233
Unlimited Undo 224 23.0% 38.13 0.248 88.84% 0.195 -0.2069
Using Tokens but Not Events 262 16.27% 41.07 0.249 95.04% 1.242 1.1962

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 184 22.34 25.0%
II 740 30.71 82.43%
III 775 34.23 93.42%
IV 302 37.48 98.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 21
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 574
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 462
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 253
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 115
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 64
Lose: Blight pool ran out 172
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)