Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 43 27.91% 44.77 76.74% -0.237 0.2065 0.311
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 18.46% 58.23 86.15% 0.027 0.1247 -0.548
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 11 45.45% 28.36 81.82% 0.138 0.6839 0.161
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 256 15.63% 54.18 93.36% 0.026 0.258 0.575
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% -0.174
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.25
Second Wave 0 412 32.04% 31.74 87.38% 0.695 1.3877 0.297
Ward the Shores 2 20 45.0% 32.05 65.0% 0.022

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 78 36.97 69.23% 0.202 2.1728 -1.21
Aid From Lesser Spirits 103 40.77 76.7% 0.147 1.925 0.234
All Things Weaken 55 32.42 61.82% -0.141 1.9076 -0.682
Back Against the Wall 89 35.69 68.54% -0.26 1.6789 -0.197
Disintegrating Ecosystem 80 34.63 68.75% -0.232 1.8958 -0.283
Downward Spiral 136 29.65 62.5% 0.164 2.1247 -0.926
Erosion of Will 74 34.78 62.16% 0.11 2.1914 -0.045
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 38.61 85.37% 0.294 0.796 0.694
Memory Fades to Dust 121 29.62 65.29% -0.812 1.3293 -0.684
Power Corrodes the Spirit 65 36.63 69.23% -0.714 1.2665 -0.251
Promising Farmlands 86 31.67 61.63% -0.129 1.8931 -0.392
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 43.24 95.24% 0.081 0.5774 0.504
Thriving Communities 50 37.5 66.0% -0.472 1.5872 -1.052
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.353
Unnatural Proliferation 77 40.18 74.03% -1.677 0.2804 0.089
Untended Land Crumbles 56 38.07 64.29% -1.495 0.538 -0.882

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2102 36.87% 35.65 83.97% 0.292 1.0279 -0.01
B 2021 37.3% 34.93 83.03% 0.207 0.9044 0.019
C 2073 35.56% 35.64 84.23% 0.254 0.7235 -0.035
D 1950 36.68% 34.45 82.67% -0.485 0.2244 -0.102
E 1152 35.93% 38.99 88.63% 0.323 0.8676 0.51
F 1169 37.01% 36.39 85.71% 0.135 0.7968 -0.234
G 1112 38.53% 37.5 86.87% -0.289 0.3414 0.073
H 1097 35.97% 38.24 86.96% -0.399 0.2659 -0.188
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 62 0.0% 18.89 64.52% -0.232 1.9966 0.211
Not Using Events or Tokens 201 40.37% 24.68 70.15% -0.287 -0.0603 -0.592
Skip Initial Invader Actions 186 17.33% 38.26 89.25% -0.277 -1.2571 0.115
Start of Game Growth 296 15.71% 42.33 91.22% -0.831 -1.2881 1.083
Unlimited Undo 351 23.82% 36.81 89.17% -0.422 -0.9733 -0.039
Using Tokens but Not Events 416 17.77% 40.56 95.43% -0.643 -0.4881 -0.279

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 278 22.65 24.82%
II 1120 31.08 82.95%
III 1270 34.66 93.54%
IV 535 37.91 99.07%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1152
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 877
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 525
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 150
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 86
Lose: Blight pool ran out 263
Lose: Spirit destroyed 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)