Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 25 16.0% 31.64 -1.175 100.0% 0.63 0.9196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 32.21 -1.396 85.71% -0.038 0.3756
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 36 50.0% 42.06 4.024 86.11% -0.288 0.5952
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 26 57.69% 43.12 4.099 84.62% -0.325 0.917
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 18 66.67% 47.33 6.963 77.78% -0.251 1.2454
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 8.966 80.0% -0.498 1.441
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 30 76.67% 50.27 7.227 63.33% -1.642 0.4009
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 48 22.22% 25.33 -3.593 89.58% 0.002 0.0432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 57 28.07% 31.82 -1.0 89.47% 0.29 0.2717
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 86 52.33% 41.84 3.895 90.7% 0.613 0.6265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 69 46.38% 46.46 6.448 91.3% 0.274 0.557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 51 37.25% 49.61 7.982 84.31% -0.265 0.0939
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 9 66.67% 55.78 11.866 88.89% 0.006 0.8309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 30 73.33% 52.2 9.523 70.0% -0.774 0.4648
The Kingdom of England 0 1 37 27.03% 25.08 -4.111 89.19% -0.11 0.2195
The Kingdom of England 1 3 21 47.62% 32.52 -0.042 76.19% -0.429 0.0876
The Kingdom of England 2 4 44 63.64% 33.64 0.28 75.0% -0.755 0.2188
The Kingdom of England 3 6 64 56.25% 36.06 1.192 57.81% -1.917 -0.3368
The Kingdom of England 4 7 65 61.54% 43.69 4.741 67.69% -1.503 -0.008
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20 80.0% 46.2 6.363 60.0% -1.441 0.6293
The Kingdom of England 6 11 165 51.83% 55.34 10.732 67.88% -1.524 0.7199
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 33 36.36% 29.36 -1.945 90.91% -0.01 0.5021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 19 52.63% 36.68 1.237 89.47% 0.138 1.04
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 40 47.5% 43.27 4.532 80.0% -0.506 1.6349
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 49 59.18% 41.94 4.493 57.14% -1.829 0.3696
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 43 55.81% 54.07 9.402 79.07% -0.508 1.653
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 27 62.96% 62.0 13.477 85.19% -0.083 1.7346
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 66 45.45% 65.26 15.109 83.33% -0.773 1.3181
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 22 27.27% 22.95 -4.642 90.91% 0.076 0.1649
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 40 37.5% 29.57 -1.581 90.0% 0.244 0.2791
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 55 25.45% 34.04 -0.064 92.73% 0.28 0.5172
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 44 34.09% 43.05 4.916 90.91% 0.242 0.5324
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 55 40.0% 45.27 5.178 85.45% -0.523 0.258
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 28.57% 54.9 9.082 95.24% -0.112 1.0561
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 223 31.84% 53.73 7.93 85.65% -0.851 0.2713
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 36.36% 28.45 -2.825 90.91% -0.131 -0.2197
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 50.0% 34.94 0.626 87.5% -0.159 0.6196
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 28.57% 42.86 4.132 100.0% 0.277 0.6884
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 60.0% 49.47 7.8 93.33% 0.119 1.3634
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 81.82% 51.55 8.951 90.91% 0.263 1.3712
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 52.0 6.862 66.67% -0.717 1.2666
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 32 78.13% 41.19 2.865 25.0% -3.139 -1.267

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 39 28.21% 40.51 -0.436 74.36% -1.179 -0.6133
Dahan Insurrection 4 68 11.94% 54.87 10.17 88.24% -0.268 0.1326
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 -1.357 66.67% -0.795 -0.521
Elemental Invocation 1 8 50.0% 28.5 -3.281 75.0% -0.653 -0.1509
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 254 13.39% 52.23 5.611 92.52% 0.3 0.6646
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.339 83.33% 0.277 0.7233
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 35.14 -0.095 57.14% -0.915 -0.2695
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 7.072 100.0% 0.288 0.9351
Second Wave 0 246 38.21% 35.11 -0.041 84.96% -0.51 -0.0804
Ward the Shores 2 30 46.67% 32.43 -1.221 63.33% -1.23 -0.1986

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 70 37.97 -0.248 72.86% -1.27 0.7991
Aid From Lesser Spirits 91 42.15 1.615 78.02% -0.996 0.9172
All Things Weaken 39 30.15 -3.816 51.28% -1.991 0.1688
Back Against the Wall 76 36.11 -0.885 68.42% -1.431 0.656
Disintegrating Ecosystem 65 33.78 -1.568 67.69% -1.363 0.8593
Downward Spiral 107 31.61 -2.801 62.62% -1.812 0.2099
Erosion of Will 66 35.71 -1.513 62.12% -1.589 0.6187
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 36 38.64 -0.099 83.33% -0.818 -0.1391
Memory Fades to Dust 102 31.36 -2.353 65.69% -1.571 0.6437
Power Corrodes the Spirit 51 37.78 -1.55 68.63% -1.443 0.5781
Promising Farmlands 75 32.2 -3.003 60.0% -1.953 0.2554
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 46.5 2.82 94.44% 0.273 0.6847
Thriving Communities 37 38.49 -0.765 62.16% -1.515 0.5731
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.524 30.77% -2.295 -0.07
Unnatural Proliferation 58 43.36 1.824 75.86% -0.907 1.1743
Untended Land Crumbles 49 40.49 0.178 65.31% -1.625 0.4775

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1745 37.11% 36.68 -0.261 84.13% 0.218 -0.4695
B 1679 37.83% 35.92 -0.715 82.85% 0.045 -0.7382
C 1720 35.88% 36.88 -0.166 84.07% -0.033 -1.0459
D 1623 37.14% 35.44 -1.541 82.81% -0.277 -1.0548
E 904 35.81% 41.36 1.586 89.93% 0.48 -0.4144
F 952 36.89% 37.97 -0.33 85.4% -0.202 -1.0424
G 903 38.91% 38.9 0.369 86.71% 0.11 -0.7221
H 898 36.14% 40.09 1.096 87.08% 0.138 -0.701
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.647 60.0% -0.099 -0.675
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.374 55.56% -0.125 -0.6492
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.906 50.0% -0.251 -0.846
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -5.872 100.0% 0.026 -0.6034
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.39 100.0% 0.152 -0.0465
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.647 60.0% -0.099 -0.4261

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 36 0.0% 19.22 -6.272 72.22% -1.743 0.3103
Not Using Events or Tokens 141 40.34% 26.66 -2.885 70.21% -0.428 -0.213
Skip Initial Invader Actions 151 19.53% 38.21 0.446 88.08% -0.23 -0.9159
Start of Game Growth 254 16.52% 42.52 3.47 90.94% 1.188 0.7191
Unlimited Undo 298 24.82% 38.06 0.395 88.59% 0.266 -0.1567
Using Tokens but Not Events 341 17.13% 42.01 0.811 95.89% 1.398 1.3467

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 222 22.37 24.77%
II 951 30.88 83.18%
III 1013 34.39 93.29%
IV 430 37.55 98.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 30
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 788
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 635
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 379
Lose: Invader deck ran out 10
Lose: Adversary condition 133
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 24
Win: Scenario condition 79
Lose: Blight pool ran out 213
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)