Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 45 28.89% 42.78 73.33% -0.208 -0.0107 0.348
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 18.46% 58.23 86.15% -0.558
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 11 45.45% 28.36 81.82% 0.157 0.8598 0.208
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 259 15.44% 54.31 93.44% 0.573 -0.0717 0.635
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% 0.209 0.8448 -0.151
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.256
Second Wave 0 482 32.16% 30.49 86.1% 0.619 0.6851 -0.258
Ward the Shores 2 22 50.0% 31.95 59.09% -0.275 0.809 -0.723

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 81 36.21 66.67% -0.767 -0.5244 -1.236
Aid From Lesser Spirits 106 41.14 77.36% 0.063 -0.015 0.223
All Things Weaken 61 31.33 60.66% -0.575 -0.182 -0.833
Attenuated Essence 1 52.0 100.0% -0.215 -0.1079 -0.772
Back Against the Wall 92 35.48 68.48% 0.068 0.1259 -0.435
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 15.5 25.0% -0.515 -0.3134
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 10.5 25.0% -1.164 -0.9538 0.122
Disintegrating Ecosystem 84 33.65 67.86% 0.086 0.5097 -0.589
Downward Spiral 143 28.97 60.14% -1.21 -0.9745 -0.839
Erosion of Will 80 34.89 63.75% -0.088 0.2213 -0.013
Intensifying Exploitation 2 28.0 50.0% -0.27 0.018 0.086
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 43 38.58 86.05% 0.444 -0.0494 0.658
Memory Fades to Dust 124 29.05 64.52% -0.612 -0.2755 -0.623
Power Corrodes the Spirit 71 35.73 70.42% 0.466 0.6866 -0.121
Promising Farmlands 88 31.34 61.36% 0.512 0.9656 -0.432
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 33.25 75.0% -0.454 -0.4026
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 17.5 75.0% 0.117 0.5159
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 42.35 95.65% 0.51
Thriving Communities 54 37.3 66.67% -0.985 -0.6223 -0.89
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.342
Unnatural Proliferation 86 38.97 75.58% 0.732 0.9469 0.046
Untended Land Crumbles 60 36.8 63.33% -0.407 -0.1252 -1.155

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2237 37.32% 34.74 82.61% 0.141 0.8812 0.068
B 2161 37.37% 33.99 81.63% -0.045 0.6803 -0.005
C 2206 35.77% 34.72 82.73% -0.535 0.047 -0.064
D 2094 36.91% 33.46 81.28% 0.331 1.0421 -0.106
E 1240 36.07% 38.0 87.74% 0.365 0.9306 0.476
F 1245 37.03% 35.75 85.14% 0.086 0.7565 -0.183
G 1207 39.07% 36.35 85.92% 0.358 1.0097 0.065
H 1191 36.19% 36.87 85.39% -0.666 -0.0957 -0.223
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 81 0.0% 15.91 55.56% -0.971 -0.1944 0.174
Not Using Events or Tokens 235 38.2% 22.51 65.96% -0.729 -0.3502 -0.653
Skip Initial Invader Actions 196 17.61% 37.37 87.24% -0.404 -1.022 -0.204
Start of Game Growth 315 17.2% 41.3 88.89% -0.501 -0.8495 0.905
Unlimited Undo 373 24.48% 35.66 87.94% 0.603 0.5968 -0.005
Using Tokens but Not Events 447 18.91% 39.04 93.29% 0.113 0.1026 -0.288

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 331 20.4 20.85%
II 1173 31.01 81.84%
III 1361 34.76 93.83%
IV 567 38.07 99.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1241
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 908
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 557
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 49
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13
Lose: Adversary condition 155
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 86
Lose: Blight pool ran out 282
Lose: Spirit destroyed 37

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)