Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 24 16.67% 31.88 -0.978 100.0% 0.676 0.9569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 32.08 -1.47 84.62% -0.1 0.2902
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 33 48.48% 41.42 4.025 84.85% -0.234 0.6367
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 24 62.5% 42.88 4.057 83.33% -0.32 0.9374
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 16 68.75% 46.06 6.413 75.0% -0.314 1.2148
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 8.901 80.0% -0.478 1.5482
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 20 85.0% 51.3 7.789 65.0% -1.347 0.7235
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 41 17.95% 27.0 -3.053 95.12% 0.406 0.4442
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 53 30.19% 31.62 -0.953 88.68% 0.304 0.2735
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 70 52.86% 40.21 3.662 90.0% 0.651 0.6558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 57 45.61% 46.35 6.504 91.23% 0.364 0.655
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 41 29.27% 50.8 8.529 87.8% -0.075 0.2863
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 7 71.43% 59.29 13.517 100.0% 0.553 1.3813
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 28 71.43% 52.86 9.896 71.43% -0.694 0.5504
The Kingdom of England 0 1 34 26.47% 24.68 -3.945 88.24% -0.094 0.237
The Kingdom of England 1 3 19 52.63% 31.16 -0.268 73.68% -0.426 0.0741
The Kingdom of England 2 4 36 63.89% 33.69 0.401 77.78% -0.499 0.471
The Kingdom of England 3 6 46 47.83% 35.63 1.283 54.35% -1.829 -0.2498
The Kingdom of England 4 7 59 62.71% 43.75 4.959 67.8% -1.345 0.1557
The Kingdom of England 5 9 15 80.0% 44.07 5.382 53.33% -1.465 0.6051
The Kingdom of England 6 11 134 52.63% 53.01 9.767 63.43% -1.575 0.6764
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 29.18 -1.836 89.29% -0.046 0.4793
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 47.06% 35.94 0.937 88.24% 0.053 0.9468
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 37 51.35% 42.68 4.702 81.08% -0.3 1.8291
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 42 59.52% 40.86 4.199 52.38% -1.865 0.3215
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 33 54.55% 52.85 8.971 75.76% -0.533 1.6096
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 25 60.0% 62.0 13.479 84.0% -0.105 1.7182
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 44.44% 64.7 15.01 81.48% -0.724 1.392
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 21 23.81% 22.9 -4.679 90.48% 0.096 0.1842
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 39 35.9% 29.51 -1.512 89.74% 0.285 0.3046
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 47 17.02% 34.45 0.094 91.49% 0.011 0.2343
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 30.0% 43.88 5.297 92.5% 0.31 0.5954
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 50 42.0% 44.3 4.762 84.0% -0.485 0.2829
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 30.0% 54.9 9.249 95.0% -0.139 1.021
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 209 31.58% 53.64 8.008 85.17% -0.807 0.3252
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 10 30.0% 29.4 -2.421 100.0% 0.493 0.3732
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 60.0% 34.1 0.907 90.0% 0.316 1.0344
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 40.0% 42.8 4.366 100.0% 0.3 0.7419
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 60.0% 48.0 7.375 90.0% -0.198 1.0533
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 80.0% 51.2 9.123 90.0% 0.275 1.3982
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 47.0 3.887 50.0% -0.818 1.2281
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 29 82.76% 39.17 2.012 20.69% -3.129 -1.1944

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 34 29.41% 41.03 0.209 76.47% -1.025 -0.4441
Dahan Insurrection 4 59 12.07% 53.53 9.776 88.14% -0.153 0.2504
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 37.0 4.267 100.0% 0.098 0.4475
Elemental Invocation 1 8 50.0% 28.5 -2.945 75.0% -0.566 -0.1934
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 224 12.05% 51.73 5.432 91.96% 0.194 0.5584
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.45 83.33% 0.294 0.7348
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 35.14 0.004 57.14% -0.859 -0.2241
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 7.022 100.0% 0.244 0.8852
Second Wave 0 221 39.37% 35.1 0.065 84.62% -0.451 -0.0267
Ward the Shores 2 28 46.43% 30.11 -2.184 60.71% -1.362 -0.3201

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 57 36.54 -0.727 70.18% -1.256 0.8144
Aid From Lesser Spirits 76 41.55 1.529 75.0% -1.073 0.8489
All Things Weaken 29 30.24 -3.314 51.72% -1.792 0.3617
Back Against the Wall 65 35.6 -1.124 66.15% -1.413 0.6835
Disintegrating Ecosystem 57 32.09 -2.098 64.91% -1.39 0.836
Downward Spiral 91 29.87 -3.27 59.34% -1.914 0.1046
Erosion of Will 54 34.57 -1.858 57.41% -1.716 0.4941
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 30 34.77 -1.62 80.0% -0.942 -0.2484
Memory Fades to Dust 85 31.46 -2.376 65.88% -1.475 0.7405
Power Corrodes the Spirit 42 36.43 -1.914 61.9% -1.582 0.4345
Promising Farmlands 65 33.02 -2.591 60.0% -1.848 0.3657
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 45.47 2.561 94.12% 0.275 0.7057
Thriving Communities 29 40.66 0.232 62.07% -1.355 0.7411
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.445 30.77% -2.262 -0.0409
Unnatural Proliferation 48 43.5 2.008 75.0% -0.788 1.298
Untended Land Crumbles 43 40.88 0.576 62.79% -1.59 0.5064

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1535 35.59% 36.39 -0.216 83.84% 0.287 -0.8149
B 1470 36.75% 35.53 -0.81 82.38% 0.046 -1.1505
C 1503 35.14% 36.61 -0.09 83.5% -0.036 -1.4643
D 1433 36.01% 35.21 -1.546 82.14% -0.328 -1.5188
E 744 33.24% 41.14 1.498 89.65% 0.436 -0.8627
F 814 36.71% 37.56 -0.366 84.89% -0.206 -1.4602
G 761 38.41% 38.48 0.372 86.6% 0.108 -1.1346
H 748 35.76% 39.95 1.215 86.76% 0.207 -1.0504
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.669 60.0% -0.107 -1.0672
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.365 55.56% -0.136 -1.0367
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.926 50.0% -0.237 -1.2117
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -5.578 100.0% 0.028 -0.976
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.359 100.0% 0.13 -0.4701
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.669 60.0% -0.107 -0.8068

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 31 0.0% 19.65 -6.321 74.19% -1.615 0.4332
Not Using Events or Tokens 118 43.0% 27.69 -2.487 68.64% -0.405 -0.1841
Skip Initial Invader Actions 141 19.83% 38.63 0.669 88.65% -0.179 -0.8836
Start of Game Growth 235 15.89% 42.48 3.546 91.06% 1.143 0.691
Unlimited Undo 243 22.67% 38.22 0.426 89.3% 0.225 -0.1917
Using Tokens but Not Events 308 16.61% 41.46 0.631 95.78% 1.361 1.3103

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 204 22.33 25.0%
II 838 30.75 82.82%
III 866 34.25 93.53%
IV 354 37.47 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 26
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 657
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 545
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 304
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 122
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 22
Win: Scenario condition 69
Lose: Blight pool ran out 191
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)