Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 43 27.91% 44.77 76.74% 0.064 0.5209 0.311
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 18.46% 58.23 86.15% -0.358 -0.3383 -0.673
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67% -0.384 0.1283
Elemental Invocation 1 11 45.45% 28.36 81.82% 0.179
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 258 15.5% 54.26 93.41% 0.248 0.2896 0.588
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% -0.167
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.252
Second Wave 0 426 31.92% 31.52 87.09% 0.062 0.5239 0.313
Ward the Shores 2 20 45.0% 32.05 65.0% -0.516 0.2283 0.019

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 79 36.73 68.35% -0.285 1.4459 -1.209
Aid From Lesser Spirits 103 40.77 76.7% -0.561 1.0146 0.163
All Things Weaken 56 32.48 62.5% -0.281 1.5966 -0.697
Back Against the Wall 91 35.41 68.13% -1.164 0.4726 -0.293
Disintegrating Ecosystem 81 34.36 67.9% -0.686 1.157 -0.272
Downward Spiral 138 29.38 61.59% -0.765 0.9336 -0.977
Erosion of Will 78 35.17 64.1% -0.168 1.7326 0.007
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 38.67 85.71% 0.358 0.8588 0.7
Memory Fades to Dust 122 29.49 65.57% 0.133 2.0092 -0.683
Power Corrodes the Spirit 66 36.67 69.7% -0.904 0.8006 -0.242
Promising Farmlands 87 31.37 60.92% -0.357 1.5182 -0.398
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 42.35 95.65% 0.171 0.3808 0.483
Thriving Communities 50 37.5 66.0% -0.679 1.1916 -1.043
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.363
Unnatural Proliferation 78 39.97 74.36% -0.036 1.7176 0.111
Untended Land Crumbles 56 38.07 64.29% -1.028 0.7863 -0.877

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2132 37.06% 35.53 83.91% -0.407 0.3701 -0.029
B 2046 37.43% 34.87 83.04% 0.239 0.9421 0.072
C 2102 35.59% 35.49 84.16% 0.177 0.7047 -0.0
D 1976 36.76% 34.37 82.64% -0.319 0.4161 -0.126
E 1167 35.63% 38.88 88.69% 0.508 1.0923 0.547
F 1188 37.01% 36.28 85.86% 0.319 1.0261 -0.279
G 1132 38.65% 37.35 86.84% 0.092 0.7338 0.057
H 1115 36.11% 38.09 87.0% -0.582 0.0635 -0.206
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 62 0.0% 18.89 64.52% 0.185
Not Using Events or Tokens 208 39.88% 24.45 70.67% -0.015 0.1562 -0.586
Skip Initial Invader Actions 186 17.33% 38.26 89.25% 0.207 -0.8526 0.152
Start of Game Growth 297 15.65% 42.42 91.25% 0.291 -0.1312 1.085
Unlimited Undo 358 23.62% 36.49 89.39% 0.784 0.3688 0.022
Using Tokens but Not Events 422 17.5% 40.31 95.26% -0.308 -0.1929 -0.232

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 280 22.63 24.64%
II 1133 31.12 82.88%
III 1289 34.7 93.48%
IV 546 37.97 99.08%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1169
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 887
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 536
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 150
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 86
Lose: Blight pool ran out 269
Lose: Spirit destroyed 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)