Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 25 16.0% 31.64 -1.101 100.0% 0.64 0.9238
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 32.21 -1.406 85.71% -0.026 0.3851
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 35 48.57% 42.03 4.094 85.71% -0.333 0.5432
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 26 57.69% 43.12 4.126 84.62% -0.34 0.9054
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 18 66.67% 47.33 6.997 77.78% -0.28 1.2222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 9.047 80.0% -0.473 1.4802
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 30 76.67% 50.27 7.294 63.33% -1.622 0.4206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 48 22.22% 25.33 -3.528 89.58% 0.016 0.0581
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 57 28.07% 31.82 -0.939 89.47% 0.284 0.2654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 83 51.81% 41.24 3.748 91.57% 0.716 0.7295
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 63 46.03% 46.63 6.523 92.06% 0.387 0.675
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 35.42% 49.46 8.078 85.42% -0.111 0.2555
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 9 66.67% 55.78 11.94 88.89% 0.0 0.8269
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 72.41% 53.24 9.999 72.41% -0.647 0.5912
The Kingdom of England 0 1 36 27.78% 24.86 -4.047 88.89% -0.09 0.2421
The Kingdom of England 1 3 21 47.62% 32.52 0.014 76.19% -0.42 0.0935
The Kingdom of England 2 4 42 64.29% 32.88 0.024 73.81% -0.77 0.1979
The Kingdom of England 3 6 60 56.67% 35.68 1.161 56.67% -1.9 -0.3214
The Kingdom of England 4 7 65 61.54% 43.69 4.817 67.69% -1.485 0.0134
The Kingdom of England 5 9 18 83.33% 44.28 5.561 55.56% -1.491 0.5819
The Kingdom of England 6 11 160 52.83% 54.72 10.514 66.88% -1.525 0.7231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 33 36.36% 29.36 -1.881 90.91% 0.009 0.5228
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 47.06% 35.94 0.799 88.24% 0.018 0.9176
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 40 47.5% 43.27 4.624 80.0% -0.481 1.6614
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 48 58.33% 42.35 4.758 58.33% -1.769 0.4278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 43 55.81% 54.07 9.498 79.07% -0.484 1.6746
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 27 62.96% 62.0 13.515 85.19% -0.083 1.7346
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 64 43.75% 65.13 15.099 82.81% -0.787 1.3101
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 22 27.27% 22.95 -4.559 90.91% 0.103 0.1887
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 40 37.5% 29.57 -1.517 90.0% 0.248 0.2816
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 55 25.45% 34.04 0.009 92.73% 0.288 0.5232
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 43 32.56% 43.0 4.931 90.7% 0.201 0.4875
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 54 40.74% 44.81 5.005 85.19% -0.521 0.2627
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 28.57% 54.9 9.127 95.24% -0.112 1.0546
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 222 31.53% 53.7 7.971 85.59% -0.837 0.2875
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 36.36% 28.45 -2.718 90.91% -0.099 -0.2003
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 50.0% 34.94 0.788 87.5% -0.129 0.65
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 33.33% 42.67 4.619 100.0% 0.27 0.6895
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 69.23% 48.62 7.655 92.31% 0.089 1.3432
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 80.0% 51.2 9.106 90.0% 0.212 1.3288
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 52.0 7.166 66.67% -0.708 1.2913
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 31 80.65% 40.06 2.419 22.58% -3.171 -1.2925

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 39 28.21% 40.51 -0.36 74.36% -1.162 -0.5929
Dahan Insurrection 4 66 10.77% 54.03 9.836 87.88% -0.277 0.1212
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 -1.167 66.67% -0.779 -0.51
Elemental Invocation 1 8 50.0% 28.5 -3.249 75.0% -0.674 -0.2099
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 250 12.8% 52.2 5.649 92.4% 0.297 0.6639
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.374 83.33% 0.274 0.7191
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 35.14 -0.082 57.14% -0.913 -0.2676
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 7.183 100.0% 0.289 0.9342
Second Wave 0 244 38.52% 35.03 -0.018 85.25% -0.474 -0.0456
Ward the Shores 2 30 46.67% 32.43 -1.198 63.33% -1.237 -0.2029

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 67 37.82 -0.239 73.13% -1.19 0.8826
Aid From Lesser Spirits 89 41.76 1.611 77.53% -1.001 0.9167
All Things Weaken 38 29.39 -3.929 50.0% -2.028 0.142
Back Against the Wall 73 35.68 -1.041 67.12% -1.484 0.6071
Disintegrating Ecosystem 64 33.22 -1.661 67.19% -1.374 0.851
Downward Spiral 106 31.47 -2.819 62.26% -1.824 0.1993
Erosion of Will 64 35.67 -1.436 62.5% -1.547 0.6622
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 37.43 -0.515 82.86% -0.812 -0.1254
Memory Fades to Dust 100 31.55 -2.231 66.0% -1.55 0.6684
Power Corrodes the Spirit 47 37.15 -1.676 65.96% -1.509 0.5153
Promising Farmlands 75 32.2 -2.907 60.0% -1.941 0.2729
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 46.5 2.904 94.44% 0.289 0.6988
Thriving Communities 35 38.89 -0.471 62.86% -1.425 0.6694
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.523 30.77% -2.309 -0.0829
Unnatural Proliferation 57 43.75 2.072 77.19% -0.836 1.2502
Untended Land Crumbles 47 40.7 0.399 63.83% -1.654 0.4519

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1721 36.69% 36.55 -0.216 84.14% 0.22 -0.5408
B 1647 37.52% 35.67 -0.78 82.76% 0.042 -0.8149
C 1697 35.77% 36.79 -0.083 84.09% -0.002 -1.091
D 1591 36.81% 35.26 -1.547 82.78% -0.273 -1.1231
E 880 35.31% 41.04 1.474 89.77% 0.45 -0.5155
F 932 37.04% 37.81 -0.335 85.41% -0.185 -1.0991
G 880 38.9% 38.71 0.396 86.48% 0.107 -0.7985
H 868 36.0% 39.99 1.139 86.87% 0.126 -0.7886
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.683 60.0% -0.1 -0.7491
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.403 55.56% -0.124 -0.7231
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.926 50.0% -0.252 -0.9218
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -5.788 100.0% 0.025 -0.6814
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.292 100.0% 0.152 -0.1206
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.683 60.0% -0.1 -0.4983

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 36 0.0% 19.22 -6.282 72.22% -1.759 0.2969
Not Using Events or Tokens 139 40.17% 26.79 -2.829 70.5% -0.416 -0.2001
Skip Initial Invader Actions 151 19.53% 38.21 0.491 88.08% -0.256 -0.9431
Start of Game Growth 253 16.59% 42.47 3.525 90.91% 1.192 0.7217
Unlimited Undo 287 24.72% 37.83 0.317 88.85% 0.305 -0.1146
Using Tokens but Not Events 337 16.72% 41.79 0.739 95.85% 1.391 1.3382

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 221 22.35 24.89%
II 935 30.84 83.1%
III 989 34.35 93.43%
IV 419 37.52 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 30
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 767
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 623
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 368
Lose: Invader deck ran out 9
Lose: Adversary condition 131
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 24
Win: Scenario condition 77
Lose: Blight pool ran out 210
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)