Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 45 28.89% 42.78 73.33% -0.303 -0.1561 0.359
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 18.46% 58.23 86.15% -0.546 -0.7532 -0.623
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67% -0.354 0.3287
Elemental Invocation 1 11 45.45% 28.36 81.82% -0.275 0.4568 0.188
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 259 15.44% 54.31 93.44% 0.659 0.053 0.655
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% 0.322 0.8103 -0.155
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.214
Second Wave 0 474 32.07% 30.67 86.29% 0.793 0.8552 0.205
Ward the Shores 2 21 47.62% 32.0 61.9% -0.196 1.0132 -0.399

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 81 36.21 66.67% -1.069 -0.7983 -1.233
Aid From Lesser Spirits 104 41.08 76.92% -0.326 -0.287 0.237
All Things Weaken 60 31.28 60.0% -0.069 0.3912 -0.734
Attenuated Essence 1 52.0 100.0% 0.212 0.418
Back Against the Wall 92 35.48 68.48% -0.567 -0.4047 -0.512
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 15.5 25.0% -0.642 -0.2273
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 14.0 33.33% -0.741 -0.4362
Disintegrating Ecosystem 82 33.94 67.07% -0.646 -0.1192 -0.704
Downward Spiral 142 28.95 60.56% -0.762 -0.4097 -0.817
Erosion of Will 80 34.89 63.75% -0.643 -0.235 -0.011
Intensifying Exploitation 1 7.0 0.0% -0.219 0.1676 0.06
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 38.67 85.71% 0.402 -0.1234 0.67
Memory Fades to Dust 123 29.28 65.04% -0.258 0.2228 -0.669
Power Corrodes the Spirit 71 35.73 70.42% -0.043 0.2614 -0.185
Promising Farmlands 88 31.34 61.36% -0.059 0.5273 -0.452
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 25.0 66.67% -0.418 -0.2388
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 17.5 75.0% -0.085 0.4484
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 42.35 95.65% 0.462
Thriving Communities 52 37.0 65.38% -0.422 0.0709 -0.999
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.393
Unnatural Proliferation 82 40.09 75.61% 0.894 1.1912 0.09
Untended Land Crumbles 58 37.16 63.79% -0.038 0.3201 -0.892

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2200 37.22% 35.01 83.0% -0.433 0.4074 0.016
B 2130 37.31% 34.21 82.07% -0.037 0.7415 0.03
C 2175 35.78% 34.98 83.22% -0.39 0.2637 -0.037
D 2057 36.91% 33.73 81.82% 0.168 0.9676 -0.103
E 1220 36.09% 38.25 88.03% 0.68 1.3092 0.542
F 1233 36.74% 35.89 85.16% 0.194 0.9137 -0.255
G 1191 38.66% 36.51 86.06% -0.038 0.7039 -0.006
H 1176 36.14% 37.1 85.88% -0.108 0.5402 -0.153
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 76 0.0% 16.91 59.21% -0.18 0.7032 0.175
Not Using Events or Tokens 225 39.53% 23.2 67.56% -0.539 -0.2071 -0.574
Skip Initial Invader Actions 192 18.06% 38.01 88.54% 0.384 -0.1514 0.167
Start of Game Growth 304 16.73% 42.22 90.79% -0.129 -0.4597 1.06
Unlimited Undo 366 24.92% 36.16 88.8% 0.597 0.5754 0.115
Using Tokens but Not Events 442 18.85% 39.31 93.67% 0.047 -0.0068 -0.219

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 314 21.03 21.97%
II 1165 31.04 82.06%
III 1346 34.74 93.76%
IV 558 38.02 99.1%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1226
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 904
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 548
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 32
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13
Lose: Adversary condition 154
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 86
Lose: Blight pool ran out 279
Lose: Spirit destroyed 37

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)