Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 26 19.23% 31.5 0.383 100.0% 0.048 0.5991
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 16 62.5% 33.69 5.329 87.5% 0.347 1.2245
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 39 53.85% 40.62 -0.8 82.05% -0.568 0.5516
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 31 64.52% 42.19 -6.76 77.42% -1.163 0.3678
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 18 66.67% 47.33 8.902 77.78% 0.095 1.6828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34 76.47% 49.97 61.76%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 63 25.0% 25.05 -1.612 87.3% -0.134 0.1104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 70 34.78% 31.33 -0.959 88.57% -0.124 -0.25
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 103 53.4% 43.13 5.092 88.35% 0.454 0.5704
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 83 45.78% 47.27 8.226 92.77% 0.236 0.6099
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 57 38.6% 48.67 82.46%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 70.0% 55.1 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 33 72.73% 51.15 10.814 63.64% -0.334 1.2417
The Kingdom of England 0 1 43 27.91% 25.19 -4.83 86.05% -0.466 0.0503
The Kingdom of England 1 3 27 40.74% 33.63 6.696 81.48% 0.196 0.8053
The Kingdom of England 2 4 52 63.46% 34.83 -0.246 73.08% -0.252 0.8747
The Kingdom of England 3 6 68 57.35% 36.19 58.82%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 71 64.79% 43.77 10.787 67.61% 0.37 1.9483
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 80.95% 46.76 61.9%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 178 51.41% 55.87 10.533 67.42% -0.511 1.7881
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 39 35.9% 29.03 0.261 89.74% 0.301 1.2033
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 22 50.0% 34.91 86.36%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 46 43.48% 42.85 78.26%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 50 58.0% 41.46 14.974 56.0% 0.167 2.5508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 47 53.19% 53.11 -4.596 76.6% -1.086 1.3896
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 29 58.62% 62.59 13.42 86.21% 0.058 2.1359
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 75 46.67% 65.28 6.256 82.67% -0.861 1.5062
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 100.0% 46.0 6.736 100.0% 0.224 1.0937
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 52.0 8.428 100.0% 0.18 1.4157
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 27 25.93% 23.48 1.97 88.89% 0.057 0.2236
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 46 39.13% 28.89 84.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 60 27.12% 34.48 2.375 91.67% -0.216 0.237
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 50 38.0% 41.98 -0.265 88.0% -0.12 0.19
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 57 40.35% 44.81 -3.373 84.21% -0.364 0.5877
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 28.57% 54.9 95.24%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 235 31.06% 54.12 12.963 86.38% 0.216 1.4081
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 43.75% 31.63 -1.166 93.75% 0.069 0.0128
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 25 56.0% 33.04 2.199 84.0% 0.163 0.9369
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 45.45% 40.55 9.589 90.91% 0.129 0.84
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 64.71% 50.59 94.12%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 81.82% 51.55 90.91%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 52.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 39 76.92% 43.97 9.019 25.64% -0.67 1.3492

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 38 28.95% 43.79 76.32% 0.227
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 17.19% 58.61 85.94% 0.127 0.5405 -0.322
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 50.0% 28.0 80.0% 0.109
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 255 15.29% 54.12 93.33% -0.485 -0.1795 0.584
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% -0.183
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.036 0.1571
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.204
Second Wave 0 357 33.05% 32.27 86.83% 0.286 0.8521 0.144
Ward the Shores 2 20 45.0% 32.05 65.0% 0.03

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 77 37.18 68.83% -1.102 0.8008 -1.18
Aid From Lesser Spirits 103 40.77 76.7% -0.341 1.3889 0.292
All Things Weaken 53 32.55 60.38% -0.892 1.093 -0.711
Back Against the Wall 82 36.49 68.29% 0.418 2.2343 -0.036
Disintegrating Ecosystem 79 34.2 68.35% -1.009 1.0413 -0.497
Downward Spiral 133 29.95 62.41% 0.232 2.2255 -0.882
Erosion of Will 73 34.63 61.64% -0.541 1.5419 0.077
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 38.08 84.62% 0.492 0.9329 0.622
Memory Fades to Dust 115 30.2 66.09% -0.286 1.7986 -0.459
Power Corrodes the Spirit 61 37.54 68.85% -0.853 1.0852 -0.162
Promising Farmlands 85 31.8 61.18% -0.438 1.6081 -0.546
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 44.3 95.0% 0.23 0.6547 0.547
Thriving Communities 49 37.73 67.35% -1.532 0.4513 -0.868
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.3
Unnatural Proliferation 73 41.55 76.71% -0.891 1.073 0.586
Untended Land Crumbles 54 39.02 66.67% 0.058 2.0514 -0.64

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2031 37.11% 35.85 83.8% -0.068 0.7292 0.097
B 1949 37.68% 35.14 82.81% 0.091 0.8349 -0.18
C 1992 35.85% 35.97 83.94% 0.079 0.6479 -0.034
D 1880 36.75% 34.68 82.61% -0.026 0.7694 -0.134
E 1104 35.77% 39.4 88.77% 0.084 0.7309 0.497
F 1127 37.51% 36.75 85.63% -0.058 0.6664 -0.287
G 1072 38.63% 37.61 87.03% 0.086 0.8178 0.176
H 1047 36.07% 38.79 87.01% -0.152 0.56 -0.103
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 58 0.0% 17.98 63.79% 0.167
Not Using Events or Tokens 193 40.0% 24.88 69.95% 0.29 0.4647 -0.624
Skip Initial Invader Actions 180 17.81% 37.67 89.44% 0.021 -0.1209 -0.146
Start of Game Growth 292 15.95% 42.07 91.44% 0.737 -0.0238 0.915
Unlimited Undo 340 24.12% 36.94 89.41% 0.151 -0.4525 0.156
Using Tokens but Not Events 396 17.55% 41.31 95.71% 0.158 0.0017 0.163

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 271 22.56 25.09%
II 1086 30.98 82.97%
III 1209 34.53 93.47%
IV 514 37.77 99.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 68
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1095
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 849
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 504
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 147
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 85
Lose: Blight pool ran out 252
Lose: Spirit destroyed 33

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)