Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 40 30.0% 43.48 77.5% 0.226 0.4817 0.201
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 17.19% 58.61 85.94% -0.602 -0.3003 -0.576
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 11 45.45% 28.36 81.82% 0.03 0.6409 0.14
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 256 15.63% 54.18 93.36% 0.151 0.3448 0.573
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 49.17 83.33% -0.186
Rituals of Terror 3 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 100.0% 0.248
Second Wave 0 390 33.08% 32.06 86.67% 0.506 1.0782 0.255
Ward the Shores 2 20 45.0% 32.05 65.0% 0.02

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 77 37.18 68.83% 0.199 2.1084 -1.362
Aid From Lesser Spirits 103 40.77 76.7% 0.221
All Things Weaken 54 32.39 61.11% -0.365 1.6351 -0.671
Back Against the Wall 89 35.69 68.54% -0.844 1.1042 -0.096
Disintegrating Ecosystem 80 34.63 68.75% -0.777 1.2884 -0.281
Downward Spiral 134 29.78 61.94% -0.318 1.6447 -1.001
Erosion of Will 73 34.63 61.64% 0.183 2.2902 -0.008
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 37.7 85.0% 0.267 0.8834 0.655
Memory Fades to Dust 117 29.97 64.96% -1.348 0.7094 -0.671
Power Corrodes the Spirit 63 37.06 69.84% 0.212 2.1911 -0.082
Promising Farmlands 85 31.8 61.18% 0.228 2.3303 -0.353
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 43.24 95.24% 0.538
Thriving Communities 49 37.73 67.35% 0.216 2.2655 -0.86
Tipping Point 13 20.15 30.77% -0.311
Unnatural Proliferation 75 40.87 76.0% -1.205 0.7393 0.199
Untended Land Crumbles 54 39.02 66.67% -0.648 1.3782 -0.832

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2062 37.01% 35.76 83.9% 0.335 1.0946 0.01
B 1985 37.42% 35.04 82.92% 0.766 1.4426 0.048
C 2028 35.86% 35.81 84.02% -0.036 0.4894 -0.109
D 1916 36.76% 34.59 82.67% -0.13 0.597 -0.174
E 1126 36.05% 39.29 88.72% -0.064 0.4962 0.551
F 1147 37.47% 36.61 85.61% -0.177 0.5124 -0.311
G 1095 38.49% 37.55 87.03% -0.382 0.3135 0.125
H 1072 36.06% 38.57 87.03% -0.277 0.3835 -0.107
East 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 55.56%
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 50.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0%
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
West 10 30.0% 37.1 60.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 62 0.0% 18.89 64.52% -0.185 1.9338 0.187
Not Using Events or Tokens 195 40.0% 24.81 69.74% -0.314 -0.0735 -0.533
Skip Initial Invader Actions 183 17.69% 37.87 89.62% 0.396 0.0267 0.046
Start of Game Growth 293 15.89% 42.13 91.47% -0.168 -0.791 1.08
Unlimited Undo 344 24.04% 37.0 89.24% -0.784 -1.4142 -0.04
Using Tokens but Not Events 406 17.45% 41.02 95.81% 0.138 0.1814 -0.119

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 275 22.62 25.09%
II 1100 31.05 82.91%
III 1238 34.62 93.54%
IV 527 37.86 99.05%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1123
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 860
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 517
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 148
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 85
Lose: Blight pool ran out 258
Lose: Spirit destroyed 33

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)