Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 24 16.67% 31.88 -0.891 100.0% 0.631 0.9091
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 32.21 -1.386 85.71% -0.018 0.3759
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 33 48.48% 41.42 4.052 84.85% -0.316 0.5624
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 25 60.0% 42.92 4.255 84.0% -0.302 0.9498
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 64.71% 46.94 6.802 76.47% -0.373 1.1488
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 9.117 80.0% -0.475 1.5022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 22 81.82% 52.18 8.273 68.18% -1.328 0.7215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 45 18.6% 26.4 -3.153 93.33% 0.2 0.2405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 54 29.63% 31.61 -0.865 88.89% 0.318 0.289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 73 53.42% 40.16 3.753 90.41% 0.728 0.7323
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 59 47.46% 46.46 6.647 91.53% 0.383 0.6716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 44 34.09% 49.86 8.311 86.36% -0.006 0.3616
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 75.0% 54.5 11.263 87.5% -0.003 0.8265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 72.41% 53.24 10.106 72.41% -0.604 0.6372
The Kingdom of England 0 1 35 28.57% 24.74 -3.947 88.57% -0.063 0.2692
The Kingdom of England 1 3 20 50.0% 31.35 -0.208 75.0% -0.412 0.0915
The Kingdom of England 2 4 40 65.0% 33.2 0.276 75.0% -0.667 0.3012
The Kingdom of England 3 6 56 53.57% 36.02 1.583 57.14% -1.774 -0.1959
The Kingdom of England 4 7 59 62.71% 43.75 5.025 67.8% -1.383 0.1148
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16 81.25% 44.88 5.961 56.25% -1.401 0.6657
The Kingdom of England 6 11 143 52.11% 53.5 10.004 64.34% -1.62 0.6347
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 31 35.48% 29.42 -1.698 90.32% 0.011 0.5261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 47.06% 35.94 0.981 88.24% 0.053 0.9488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 39 48.72% 42.62 4.547 79.49% -0.5 1.6369
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 46 60.87% 41.83 4.685 56.52% -1.756 0.4291
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 37 56.76% 53.89 9.555 78.38% -0.397 1.7493
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 26 61.54% 61.85 13.471 84.62% -0.05 1.7699
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 58 44.83% 65.12 15.226 82.76% -0.739 1.3679
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 21 23.81% 22.9 -4.587 90.48% 0.075 0.1598
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 39 35.9% 29.51 -1.44 89.74% 0.261 0.2814
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 52 21.15% 34.06 0.064 92.31% 0.095 0.3267
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 30.0% 43.88 5.344 92.5% 0.268 0.5536
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 52 40.38% 44.71 5.062 84.62% -0.473 0.3037
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 30.0% 54.9 9.334 95.0% -0.143 1.014
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 216 31.94% 53.71 8.026 85.65% -0.808 0.3232
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 10 30.0% 29.4 -2.355 100.0% 0.465 0.3587
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 60.0% 34.1 0.948 90.0% 0.283 1.0256
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 33.33% 42.67 4.723 100.0% 0.308 0.7394
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 60.0% 48.0 7.378 90.0% -0.228 1.0205
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 80.0% 51.2 9.154 90.0% 0.228 1.3548
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 47.0 4.248 50.0% -0.793 1.2261
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 30 83.33% 38.8 1.963 20.0% -3.154 -1.249

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 38 28.95% 40.95 0.032 76.32% -0.991 -0.4182
Dahan Insurrection 4 60 11.86% 53.17 9.556 86.67% -0.338 0.0623
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 30.0 -1.092 66.67% -0.774 -0.4914
Elemental Invocation 1 8 50.0% 28.5 -2.978 75.0% -0.63 -0.1901
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 235 13.19% 52.21 5.641 92.34% 0.269 0.6344
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.444 83.33% 0.275 0.7158
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 35.14 0.051 57.14% -0.878 -0.2338
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 7.241 100.0% 0.283 0.9246
Second Wave 0 236 38.56% 34.96 0.014 85.17% -0.47 -0.0419
Ward the Shores 2 28 46.43% 30.11 -2.104 60.71% -1.364 -0.3268

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 60 36.97 -0.489 70.0% -1.262 0.8111
Aid From Lesser Spirits 83 41.6 1.596 77.11% -1.03 0.8886
All Things Weaken 34 28.68 -4.177 47.06% -2.11 0.0486
Back Against the Wall 69 35.67 -0.993 66.67% -1.465 0.6288
Disintegrating Ecosystem 61 31.87 -2.213 65.57% -1.443 0.782
Downward Spiral 98 30.31 -3.173 60.2% -1.886 0.1349
Erosion of Will 58 34.38 -1.796 60.34% -1.642 0.5667
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 32 36.34 -0.855 81.25% -0.872 -0.179
Memory Fades to Dust 91 32.02 -1.968 68.13% -1.433 0.7856
Power Corrodes the Spirit 44 36.41 -1.943 63.64% -1.589 0.432
Promising Farmlands 68 32.62 -2.808 58.82% -2.025 0.1894
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 45.47 2.496 94.12% 0.235 0.6458
Thriving Communities 30 41.07 0.536 63.33% -1.34 0.7531
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.427 30.77% -2.28 -0.0546
Unnatural Proliferation 55 44.25 2.263 76.36% -0.899 1.1906
Untended Land Crumbles 45 40.18 0.298 62.22% -1.71 0.3953

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1626 36.02% 36.4 -0.09 84.26% 0.313 -0.7993
B 1552 36.9% 35.39 -0.845 82.47% -0.023 -1.2311
C 1595 35.4% 36.52 -0.083 83.82% -0.028 -1.467
D 1514 36.22% 35.07 -1.552 82.56% -0.291 -1.4929
E 810 33.87% 40.91 1.478 90.0% 0.422 -0.8902
F 877 36.47% 37.52 -0.319 85.4% -0.192 -1.4576
G 817 38.22% 38.37 0.374 87.03% 0.158 -1.0991
H 805 35.84% 39.57 1.092 86.71% 0.143 -1.1224
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.684 60.0% -0.104 -1.0846
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.37 55.56% -0.135 -1.0662
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.933 50.0% -0.24 -1.2398
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -5.48 100.0% 0.031 -0.9944
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.316 100.0% 0.137 -0.4835
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.684 60.0% -0.104 -0.8287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 19.91 -6.164 75.0% -1.612 0.4419
Not Using Events or Tokens 127 39.81% 27.53 -2.511 70.87% -0.4 -0.1824
Skip Initial Invader Actions 148 19.69% 38.49 0.666 88.51% -0.154 -0.8473
Start of Game Growth 244 15.77% 42.4 3.567 90.98% 1.15 0.6867
Unlimited Undo 267 23.39% 37.83 0.344 88.76% 0.209 -0.2121
Using Tokens but Not Events 319 16.99% 41.65 0.746 95.92% 1.363 1.3111

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 210 22.34 25.24%
II 890 30.81 83.15%
III 925 34.31 93.51%
IV 384 37.5 98.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 711
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 591
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 333
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 124
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 69
Lose: Blight pool ran out 200
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)