Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18 16.67% 30.5 -1.313 100.0% 0.592 0.875
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 66.67% 31.58 -1.588 83.33% -0.071 0.3232
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 29 44.83% 42.38 4.306 86.21% -0.11 0.7512
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 24 62.5% 42.88 4.06 83.33% -0.271 0.9789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 73.33% 47.8 7.092 80.0% -0.043 1.4913
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 56.4 8.957 80.0% -0.453 1.6153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 20 85.0% 51.3 7.665 65.0% -1.353 0.7245
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 38 16.67% 26.76 -3.046 94.74% 0.338 0.3811
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 53 30.19% 31.62 -1.028 88.68% 0.3 0.2746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 67 55.22% 40.03 3.521 89.55% 0.663 0.6628
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 57 45.61% 46.35 6.444 91.23% 0.383 0.6758
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 40 30.0% 50.85 8.446 87.5% -0.098 0.272
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 7 71.43% 59.29 13.53 100.0% 0.561 1.3988
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 27 74.07% 52.59 9.828 70.37% -0.644 0.6046
The Kingdom of England 0 1 33 27.27% 24.58 -4.09 87.88% -0.108 0.2231
The Kingdom of England 1 3 15 46.67% 33.07 0.176 80.0% -0.218 0.2713
The Kingdom of England 2 4 32 62.5% 34.13 0.7 78.13% -0.447 0.5176
The Kingdom of England 3 6 42 47.62% 34.45 0.687 50.0% -1.909 -0.3287
The Kingdom of England 4 7 58 62.07% 43.55 4.835 67.24% -1.344 0.1701
The Kingdom of England 5 9 15 80.0% 44.07 5.309 53.33% -1.412 0.6593
The Kingdom of England 6 11 129 52.71% 52.64 9.486 62.79% -1.571 0.686
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 29.18 -1.918 89.29% -0.023 0.5019
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 47.06% 35.94 0.924 88.24% 0.078 0.9659
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36 50.0% 42.39 4.468 80.56% -0.377 1.7503
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 41 60.98% 40.44 3.93 51.22% -1.865 0.3198
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 32 53.13% 52.72 8.916 75.0% -0.528 1.6233
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 23 65.22% 61.35 13.063 82.61% -0.144 1.682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 48 43.75% 64.94 15.0 81.25% -0.771 1.357
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 18 27.78% 22.61 -4.74 88.89% 0.069 0.1571
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 35 40.0% 29.51 -1.385 88.57% 0.321 0.3323
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 45 17.78% 34.29 -0.046 91.11% -0.01 0.2093
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 37 32.43% 43.35 5.034 91.89% 0.324 0.6071
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 46 39.13% 44.52 4.804 82.61% -0.603 0.1677
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 17 29.41% 55.88 9.646 94.12% -0.184 0.9837
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 191 30.37% 53.73 7.827 84.29% -0.781 0.3509
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 33.33% 30.22 -2.007 100.0% 0.515 0.3925
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 60.0% 34.1 0.91 90.0% 0.261 0.9763
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 40.0% 42.8 4.316 100.0% 0.281 0.7194
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 62.5% 46.63 6.237 87.5% -0.405 0.8544
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 77.78% 54.56 10.963 100.0% 0.727 1.8674
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 47.0 3.783 50.0% -0.827 1.2334
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 27 81.48% 40.22 2.213 22.22% -3.075 -1.1395

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 32 31.25% 40.84 -0.058 75.0% -1.079 -0.5021
Dahan Insurrection 4 57 12.5% 53.7 9.857 87.72% -0.117 0.2836
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 34.0 3.86 100.0% 0.064 0.4925
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 31.33 -1.343 66.67% -0.76 -0.3786
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 218 11.93% 51.84 5.537 92.2% 0.342 0.7075
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 66.67% 44.08 4.344 83.33% 0.296 0.7372
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 35.14 -0.113 57.14% -0.836 -0.2083
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 46.33 6.935 100.0% 0.255 0.9049
Second Wave 0 195 41.54% 34.29 -0.175 83.59% -0.428 -0.0122
Ward the Shores 2 28 46.43% 30.11 -2.177 60.71% -1.292 -0.2553

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 54 36.33 -0.926 68.52% -1.337 0.7329
Aid From Lesser Spirits 73 41.48 1.463 73.97% -1.112 0.8065
All Things Weaken 29 30.24 -3.346 51.72% -1.757 0.3978
Back Against the Wall 65 35.6 -1.107 66.15% -1.396 0.7003
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 32.21 -2.089 64.29% -1.405 0.8186
Downward Spiral 86 30.41 -3.175 59.3% -1.909 0.1079
Erosion of Will 53 35.19 -1.642 58.49% -1.626 0.5836
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26 35.54 -1.563 80.77% -0.806 -0.1013
Memory Fades to Dust 76 30.86 -2.657 64.47% -1.533 0.6822
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40 36.17 -1.919 62.5% -1.478 0.5422
Promising Farmlands 56 33.11 -2.692 57.14% -1.945 0.2678
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 45.31 2.575 92.31% 0.198 0.634
Thriving Communities 25 42.44 0.792 64.0% -1.122 0.9758
Tipping Point 13 20.15 -8.494 30.77% -2.268 -0.05
Unnatural Proliferation 44 45.09 2.701 75.0% -0.728 1.3496
Untended Land Crumbles 41 40.98 0.568 63.41% -1.58 0.5185

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1430 35.41% 36.6 -0.205 83.71% 0.284 -0.8058
B 1379 36.66% 35.73 -0.807 82.09% 0.03 -1.1551
C 1415 34.91% 36.8 -0.016 83.39% 0.039 -1.3755
D 1341 35.55% 35.48 -1.451 82.18% -0.276 -1.4535
E 681 33.48% 41.14 1.37 89.13% 0.405 -0.8719
F 756 37.85% 37.6 -0.409 84.13% -0.241 -1.4844
G 690 39.36% 38.76 0.454 85.94% 0.131 -1.0996
H 696 35.7% 39.88 1.122 86.35% 0.192 -1.0483
East 10 30.0% 37.1 0.665 60.0% -0.12 -1.0702
Northeast 9 33.33% 38.67 1.389 55.56% -0.14 -1.0302
Northwest 8 37.5% 38.25 0.908 50.0% -0.263 -1.2279
Southeast 1 0.0% 23.0 -5.831 100.0% 0.021 -0.9807
Southwest 2 0.0% 32.5 -0.308 100.0% 0.143 -0.4647
West 10 30.0% 37.1 0.665 60.0% -0.12 -0.8054

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 16.0 -8.542 70.0% -1.795 0.2494
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 41.76% 29.14 -2.197 69.31% -0.397 -0.1779
Skip Initial Invader Actions 130 20.69% 39.01 0.805 87.69% -0.309 -1.0136
Start of Game Growth 217 16.26% 42.8 3.643 90.78% 1.194 0.7398
Unlimited Undo 226 22.79% 38.39 0.348 88.94% 0.195 -0.2169
Using Tokens but Not Events 270 15.77% 41.22 0.394 95.19% 1.25 1.2025

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 190 22.34 24.74%
II 788 30.75 82.49%
III 815 34.26 93.37%
IV 314 37.47 98.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 22
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 609
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 501
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 265
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 117
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 183
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)