Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 40.0% 30.2 2.499 100.0% 0.646 1.1318
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 5 20.0% 31.2 6.876 80.0% 0.345 0.3644
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 3.425 0.0% 0.187 0.3408
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 50.0% 60.5 10.98 100.0% 0.173 0.3008
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 100.0% 22.0 11.723 0.0% 0.199 0.7028
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 2 50.0% 0.0 -8.839 0.0% -0.292 0.6812
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 100.0% 53.67 3.134 66.67% -1.737 0.1798
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 69 31.88% 24.78 5.17 71.01% 0.398 0.8719
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 65 38.46% 32.88 -1.648 84.62% -0.35 -0.0594
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 84 58.33% 33.04 -0.143 64.29% -0.647 -0.1042
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 80 53.16% 37.59 -0.816 72.5% -0.751 0.1951
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 78.0% 44.86 72.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 75.0% 46.95 70.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 75 74.67% 39.49 11.307 44.0% -0.248 1.55
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 310 22.48% 15.83 -3.732 53.87% -0.531 -0.3082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 169 39.63% 28.4 1.94 84.02% 0.369 0.3353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 331 42.6% 38.65 1.236 88.22% -0.265 -0.2516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 315 34.19% 40.84 2.836 78.73% -0.13 0.1122
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 146 54.86% 45.34 9.653 79.45% 0.336 0.5316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 51 60.78% 51.92 12.111 72.55% 0.173 0.5514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 110 76.36% 40.94 6.218 46.36% -0.309 0.932
The Kingdom of England 0 1 156 29.61% 20.32 -1.467 68.59% -0.665 -0.3559
The Kingdom of England 1 3 107 34.91% 30.14 3.297 75.7% 0.2 0.5204
The Kingdom of England 2 4 139 49.64% 31.84 2.791 68.35% -0.1 0.3788
The Kingdom of England 3 6 178 38.98% 32.39 7.755 53.93% 0.267 1.3064
The Kingdom of England 4 7 172 57.89% 39.94 4.788 60.47% -0.522 0.4778
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 76.67% 47.2 8.007 61.67% -0.379 1.1317
The Kingdom of England 6 11 312 58.65% 50.11 8.159 57.05% -0.711 1.1317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 80 36.25% 27.89 -2.31 83.75% -0.131 0.2458
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 67 52.24% 32.04 4.717 80.6% 0.229 1.1063
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 39.64% 30.67 4.986 48.65% -0.416 0.7671
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 119 51.26% 44.95 6.407 67.23% 0.064 1.2038
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 72 45.83% 49.85 17.698 70.83% 0.101 1.4104
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 55 78.18% 48.07 9.689 50.91% -0.303 0.9695
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 163 58.9% 53.69 15.549 58.28% -0.136 1.2567
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 37 27.03% 22.62 4.674 64.86% 0.521 0.8404
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 46.67% 26.8 9.009 60.0% 0.35 0.8381
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 23 43.48% 29.61 -0.605 65.22% -0.431 -0.0247
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 44 31.82% 34.57 9.195 59.09% 0.646 0.674
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 17 58.82% 34.82 20.158 58.82% 0.478 0.9845
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 18 22.22% 26.5 -2.488 44.44% -0.686 -0.2286
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 40 50.0% 46.65 16.253 55.0% 0.053 1.1336
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 104 37.5% 18.8 -5.535 66.35% -0.772 -0.5292
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 81 33.75% 27.9 0.466 86.42% 0.13 0.1642
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 145 32.87% 31.56 -0.008 81.38% 0.089 0.3298
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 146 43.15% 40.58 9.81 84.93% 0.368 0.6191
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 113 53.1% 38.59 10.274 69.03% 0.504 1.2581
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 37 70.27% 39.49 -4.323 59.46% -0.331 0.7675
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 139 66.91% 44.52 6.219 66.91% -0.323 0.5733
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 42 38.1% 26.81 4.049 88.1% 0.431 0.6709
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 24 62.5% 32.13 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 36 50.0% 32.61 -8.381 69.44% -0.379 -0.0116
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 73 47.95% 23.9 -4.343 38.36% -1.189 -0.0193
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 19 47.37% 44.95 4.96 73.68% -0.424 0.5324
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 21 90.48% 43.24 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 69 68.12% 46.52 11.352 40.58% -0.43 1.0864

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 33.33% 23.5 75.0% 0.115 0.0882
Blitz 0 55 42.0% 25.75 65.45% 0.738 0.988 -0.236
Dahan Insurrection 4 69 32.35% 48.84 72.46% 0.264 0.0156 -0.417
Despicable Theft 2 6 66.67% 15.17 50.0% -0.452 0.0097
Elemental Invocation 1 38 51.35% 27.84 71.05% -0.648 0.0551 0.198
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 425 7.76% 26.88 55.29% 0.08 -0.4728 0.095
Powers Long Forgotten 1 23 52.17% 31.22 73.91%
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 41.04 65.38% 0.173 0.3662 0.401
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 63.64% 36.45 81.82% -0.109
Second Wave 0 944 36.65% 26.7 81.67% 0.144 0.2614 -1.023
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 41.42 75.0% 0.574
Ward the Shores 2 42 19.51% 16.83 35.71% 0.044 1.128 -0.666

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 181 32.86 66.3% 0.098 0.3476 -0.247
Aid From Lesser Spirits 214 35.44 71.96% -0.306 -0.4241 -0.488
All Things Weaken 179 30.44 58.66% -0.4 -0.0627 -0.75
Attenuated Essence 34 31.88 55.88% -0.243 -0.2161 -0.217
Back Against the Wall 247 34.43 61.94% -0.408 -0.4065 -0.621
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 22 21.77 50.0% 0.048 0.2652 -0.91
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 19.18 45.45% -0.26 -0.2787 -0.002
Disintegrating Ecosystem 181 30.55 59.12% 0.133 0.5257 -0.636
Downward Spiral 363 25.44 58.4% 0.476 0.5843 -0.453
Erosion of Will 184 30.01 56.52% -0.753 -0.4006 -0.417
Intensifying Exploitation 28 25.25 64.29% -0.263 -0.0172 -0.942
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 34.32 88.89% 0.36 -0.1636 0.287
Memory Fades to Dust 378 22.69 50.53% 0.039 0.2866 -0.48
Power Corrodes the Spirit 169 29.07 62.72% 0.111 0.3328 -0.592
Promising Farmlands 193 27.96 59.07% -0.308 -0.0256 -1.152
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 31.13 56.25% -0.174 -0.0976 -0.386
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 22.28 40.0% -1.086 -0.6891 -1.089
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 55 39.65 96.36% 0.69
The Border of Life and Death 3 8.0 0.0% 0.735 0.1347 -0.25
Thriving Communities 178 29.88 65.73% -0.075 0.2817 -0.885
Thriving Crops 15 28.2 46.67% 0.27 0.0735 0.733
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.457
Unnatural Proliferation 186 33.2 60.75% -0.308 -0.1454 -0.846
Untended Land Crumbles 147 28.04 57.82% -0.841 -0.6091 -0.731

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4326 37.54% 26.96 70.25% -0.503 0.5021 -0.238
B 4722 34.78% 25.98 68.0% -0.484 0.4353 -0.232
C 4893 34.4% 26.85 68.75% 0.109 0.8439 0.124
D 3997 36.99% 28.01 73.15% -0.16 0.8182 -0.18
E 2925 31.9% 26.87 69.16% -0.227 0.5931 0.141
F 2277 39.45% 30.0 76.24% 0.514 1.3881 0.173
G 1943 39.91% 30.05 77.35% 0.542 1.351 0.071
H 1983 39.67% 30.46 77.81% 0.232 1.0468 0.162
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 396 0.0% 12.33 45.2% -0.322 0.3863 -0.554
Not Using Events or Tokens 985 39.5% 16.26 55.33% -0.807 -0.4393 -0.792
Skip Initial Invader Actions 390 16.22% 28.29 78.72% 0.883 0.2986 0.475
Start of Game Growth 532 23.23% 28.55 75.75% 0.387 -0.1273 0.165
Unlimited Undo 1186 27.31% 32.1 80.86% 0.289 0.1795 0.557
Using Tokens but Not Events 1428 19.01% 19.48 62.75% -0.322 -0.3477 -1.336

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1677 13.33 7.45%
II 2978 30.1 75.59%
III 3034 34.83 90.57%
IV 1387 38.67 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2725
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2185
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1373
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1061
Lose: Invader deck ran out 55
Lose: Adversary condition 325
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 83
Win: Scenario condition 81
Lose: Blight pool ran out 959
Lose: Spirit destroyed 90

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)