Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 44 34.09% 29.7 2.554 88.64% 0.06 0.6113
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 38 39.47% 32.45 -2.405 89.47% -0.567 0.3105
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 58 55.17% 38.0 -1.86 77.59% -0.62 0.4991
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 47 57.45% 43.98 2.65 89.36% -0.414 1.1165
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 36 75.0% 46.19 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 75.0% 53.44 81.25%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 55 87.27% 45.55 -3.1 52.73% -0.733 1.5277
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 130 34.65% 24.27 2.57 85.38% 0.446 0.6898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 123 37.82% 29.3 1.894 86.99% 0.742 0.6157
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 262 41.98% 41.13 6.049 94.27% 0.066 0.1824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 235 36.75% 46.14 4.567 90.21% -0.748 -0.3735
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 113 52.21% 47.32 10.571 84.07% 0.612 1.0784
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 39 71.79% 52.62 71.79%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 81 79.01% 45.99 2.734 54.32% -1.04 0.5349
The Kingdom of England 0 1 103 32.0% 23.33 -2.966 79.61% 0.318 0.8343
The Kingdom of England 1 3 81 33.75% 34.53 1.574 87.65% 0.315 0.9244
The Kingdom of England 2 4 98 45.92% 35.72 -1.493 79.59% -0.391 0.7363
The Kingdom of England 3 6 110 47.71% 40.92 -2.043 70.91% -0.555 1.1881
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 56.34% 43.97 8.278 69.93% 0.007 1.586
The Kingdom of England 5 9 50 76.0% 51.78 8.995 72.0% -0.27 1.4679
The Kingdom of England 6 11 276 62.68% 52.1 6.281 60.51% -1.003 1.2962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 59 40.68% 30.02 3.458 91.53% 0.062 0.9641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 56 48.21% 33.68 -2.754 85.71% -0.301 0.5893
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 63 39.68% 37.27 4.159 66.67% -0.643 1.7591
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 88 44.32% 49.25 14.951 78.41% 0.214 2.5986
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 60 45.0% 51.6 19.515 73.33% 0.098 2.5739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 48 87.5% 46.21 25.395 50.0% 0.185 2.2624
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 145 57.93% 55.95 14.553 61.38% -0.625 1.7418
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 50.0% 33.0 -1.598 100.0% -0.144 -0.268
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 25.0 -0.623 50.0% -0.71 0.1348
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 63.0 8.001 66.67% 0.157 1.0273
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 53.0 7.816 100.0% 0.279 1.5142
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 56.5 12.427 100.0% 0.516 1.9477
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 10 30.0% 69.2 15.211 100.0% -0.026 1.6727
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 71 42.25% 21.25 -2.929 77.46% 0.073 0.2403
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 62 29.03% 28.45 -0.133 91.94% 0.12 -0.1033
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 105 31.07% 32.46 10.386 85.71% 0.41 0.8633
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 124 42.74% 41.85 6.306 87.9% -0.183 0.1271
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 90 48.89% 40.69 5.474 74.44% -0.217 0.7352
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 29 65.52% 41.17 9.573 65.52% 0.049 1.0301
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 111 66.67% 47.38 8.438 72.97% -0.329 0.8627
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 29 31.03% 24.59 4.622 93.1% 0.279 0.223
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 19 57.89% 32.47 84.21%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 25 52.0% 38.08 5.903 84.0% 0.275 0.9856
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 31 74.19% 41.97 9.491 67.74% -0.211 1.128
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 53.33% 47.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 36.44 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 48 75.0% 53.85 1.323 52.08% -0.574 1.4453

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 30 30.77% 26.73 73.33% 0.218 0.4758 -0.305
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% 0.018 0.4315 -0.789
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 21 25.0% 32.62 85.71% 0.171 0.6566 0.163
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 252 10.71% 39.0 80.16% -0.326 -0.0208 -0.12
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.474
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.114
Second Wave 0 490 37.55% 30.12 85.51% 0.734 1.2996 -0.772
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.582

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 160 33.88 66.88% -0.76 1.1429 -0.92
Aid From Lesser Spirits 172 36.03 69.77% -0.306 1.4234 -0.311
All Things Weaken 117 32.59 63.25% -1.449 0.5364 -1.223
Back Against the Wall 198 35.98 63.13% -1.007 0.8093 -0.992
Disintegrating Ecosystem 137 32.48 59.85% -2.032 0.0183 -0.828
Downward Spiral 261 29.18 64.37% -1.665 0.3282 -0.761
Erosion of Will 138 32.14 58.7% -0.73 1.3526 -0.302
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 60 37.75 93.33% 0.3 0.7411 0.257
Memory Fades to Dust 255 24.71 54.9% -0.578 1.5064 -0.094
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 32.18 66.12% -0.708 1.2303 -0.796
Promising Farmlands 151 29.81 58.94% -1.207 0.8386 -1.087
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.3 100.0% 0.129 0.5535 0.625
Thriving Communities 132 32.77 65.15% -0.753 1.2302 -1.322
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.458
Unnatural Proliferation 137 36.91 63.5% -0.483 1.4812 -1.022
Untended Land Crumbles 105 31.31 63.81% -0.236 1.7572 -0.853

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2809 41.24% 31.97 79.46% -0.477 0.3203 -0.341
B 2981 38.92% 31.78 80.24% -0.131 0.6124 -0.287
C 3053 39.45% 32.93 80.67% -0.124 0.4441 0.366
D 2678 40.16% 32.14 81.29% 0.431 1.2265 -0.207
E 1622 40.29% 34.55 85.14% -0.027 0.6199 0.076
F 1521 41.37% 34.62 84.55% -0.105 0.619 0.164
G 1291 40.52% 33.68 83.97% -0.516 0.2152 0.041
H 1288 41.64% 35.07 84.78% 0.979 1.6914 0.207
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 218 0.0% 16.04 58.72% -0.424 1.705
Not Using Events or Tokens 552 40.25% 20.4 69.02% -0.425 -0.2503 0.528
Skip Initial Invader Actions 256 19.58% 30.22 88.28% 0.152 0.0094 0.406
Start of Game Growth 328 26.62% 30.37 86.59% 0.076 -0.6846 0.618
Unlimited Undo 813 30.41% 37.05 87.7% 0.337 -0.2666 1.002
Using Tokens but Not Events 700 23.19% 27.43 86.71% 0.413 0.2564 -0.818

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 468 22.56 17.95%
II 2025 30.98 77.88%
III 2207 34.53 90.48%
IV 1066 37.77 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 84
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1976
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1519
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1060
Lose: Invader deck ran out 45
Lose: Adversary condition 214
Win: Sacrifice victory 11
Lose: Scenario condition 63
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 676
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)