Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.237 0.054
Blitz 0 33 32.14% 25.15 69.7% -0.357 -0.0661 -0.268
Dahan Insurrection 4 54 35.85% 53.11 77.78% 0.127 -0.0513 -0.789
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 24 30.43% 30.5 79.17% 0.191 1.0174 0.14
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 261 10.34% 39.21 79.31% -0.498 -0.9982 -0.118
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 16 43.75% 40.38 81.25% -0.36 -0.4763 0.475
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.119
Second Wave 0 614 37.95% 28.99 85.02% 0.647 0.7628 -0.57
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.034 0.527 0.302
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.624

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 168 33.51 66.67% -0.586 0.0788 -0.62
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.143 -0.6787 -0.472
All Things Weaken 132 31.67 62.88% 0.323 1.1351 -1.368
Back Against the Wall 207 35.95 63.29% -0.584 -0.0374 -1.024
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 23.0 50.0% -0.245 0.674 -0.188
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 14.5 50.0% -0.181 0.6109
Disintegrating Ecosystem 142 32.69 60.56% -0.173 0.6835 -0.692
Downward Spiral 279 28.77 64.16% 0.597 1.2757 -0.689
Erosion of Will 145 32.21 57.93% 0.098 0.9047 -0.419
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.731 -0.9848 -0.075
Memory Fades to Dust 275 24.41 56.0% 0.441 1.2683 -0.037
Power Corrodes the Spirit 134 30.6 64.18% -0.809 -0.1709 -1.028
Promising Farmlands 162 29.3 58.64% -1.027 -0.1321 -1.343
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 43.0 100.0% 0.192 0.8398
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 16.5 50.0% -0.448 0.5345
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 42.67 100.0% 0.329 -0.1627 0.578
Thriving Communities 141 31.8 64.54% 0.024 0.9055 -1.35
Thriving Crops 1 22.0 100.0% 0.196 0.7486 0.062
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.45
Unnatural Proliferation 144 36.51 63.19% -0.552 0.1149 -1.022
Untended Land Crumbles 112 31.04 64.29% 0.183 0.9154 -0.923

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3047 40.38% 31.41 79.13% -0.476 0.4286 -0.274
B 3213 38.62% 31.22 79.65% -0.28 0.5181 -0.329
C 3289 39.03% 32.41 80.33% 0.155 0.8044 0.283
D 2876 39.51% 31.68 81.26% 0.285 1.1356 -0.275
E 1785 39.22% 33.62 84.31% 0.353 1.0507 0.127
F 1636 41.22% 33.87 83.68% -0.041 0.7292 0.142
G 1391 40.64% 33.08 83.47% 0.322 1.0948 0.047
H 1425 41.01% 33.92 83.86% -0.292 0.4284 0.3
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 242 0.0% 16.11 59.5% -0.537 0.6645
Not Using Events or Tokens 608 40.55% 20.28 69.57% 0.477 0.7212 0.467
Skip Initial Invader Actions 267 18.97% 30.88 88.01% -0.061 -0.6378 0.66
Start of Game Growth 344 26.35% 30.99 86.05% -0.279 -0.7381 0.83
Unlimited Undo 858 30.75% 36.37 87.3% 0.397 0.2194 0.896
Using Tokens but Not Events 769 22.84% 26.79 85.57% 0.319 0.2793 -0.952

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 548 21.84 17.15%
II 2193 31.08 78.2%
III 2382 34.71 90.51%
IV 1125 37.98 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 94
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1656
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1118
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 43
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 230
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 72
Lose: Blight pool ran out 726
Lose: Spirit destroyed 50

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)