Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 35 34.29% 29.14 -1.185 88.57% 0.021 0.2993
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 40.74% 32.41 0.715 92.59% 0.346 0.7401
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 48 54.17% 39.23 3.882 81.25% -0.461 0.4173
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 43 55.81% 43.81 6.21 88.37% -0.215 1.0363
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 75.0% 46.06 7.685 75.0% -0.556 0.9652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 54.33 11.748 83.33% 0.058 2.0348
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 42 83.33% 44.88 7.695 52.38% -1.303 0.7469
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 96 31.18% 24.41 -2.791 84.38% -0.153 -0.112
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 91 37.93% 28.54 -0.547 84.62% 0.068 0.0391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 220 42.73% 40.54 5.027 95.0% 1.122 1.1265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 167 39.76% 46.0 7.532 91.02% 0.357 0.6455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 88 55.68% 46.69 8.025 84.09% -0.029 0.3386
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 26 69.23% 53.31 11.536 73.08% -0.503 0.326
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 62 79.03% 44.94 7.501 51.61% -1.568 -0.3262
The Kingdom of England 0 1 82 30.0% 22.87 -3.087 81.71% -0.389 -0.0562
The Kingdom of England 1 3 68 34.33% 33.69 1.613 85.29% -0.296 0.2078
The Kingdom of England 2 4 74 40.54% 36.41 2.793 82.43% -0.537 0.4308
The Kingdom of England 3 6 93 49.46% 40.39 4.383 69.89% -1.436 0.1425
The Kingdom of England 4 7 101 55.0% 44.07 6.49 71.29% -1.154 0.3444
The Kingdom of England 5 9 36 69.44% 51.86 9.772 72.22% -0.82 1.2467
The Kingdom of England 6 11 215 62.79% 52.41 9.986 62.79% -1.741 0.5137
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 52 40.38% 29.54 -0.761 90.38% 0.253 0.7683
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 33.57 2.08 87.76% 0.258 1.154
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 52 38.46% 38.08 3.438 69.23% -1.337 0.8002
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 66 51.52% 49.52 9.012 78.79% -0.453 1.7324
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 52 42.31% 53.15 10.948 76.92% -0.84 1.307
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 34 82.35% 49.12 9.329 58.82% -1.097 0.723
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 116 56.03% 54.34 11.528 58.62% -1.543 0.5641
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 53 47.17% 20.38 -4.393 73.58% -0.535 -0.4507
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 47 29.79% 27.79 -1.105 91.49% 0.329 0.3501
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 81 31.25% 32.44 0.671 83.95% -0.481 -0.2492
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 101 40.59% 42.32 5.63 90.1% 0.232 0.5185
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 69 43.48% 40.1 4.584 72.46% -0.791 -0.0135
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 57.14% 46.0 7.132 80.95% -0.426 0.7315
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 80 62.5% 48.54 8.654 76.25% -0.628 0.5031
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 23 30.43% 24.57 -3.217 91.3% -0.041 -0.1469
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 62.5% 30.38 0.597 81.25% 0.097 0.8402
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 17 47.06% 38.88 3.766 88.24% -0.05 0.382
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 23 78.26% 42.22 5.393 73.91% -0.403 0.8465
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 53.85% 46.69 7.616 76.92% -0.481 0.6459
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 38.85 4.257 38.46% -1.511 0.5079
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 32 81.25% 53.78 11.107 56.25% -1.637 0.2682

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 29 28.57% 28.66 -2.153 72.41% -0.911 -0.3377
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 36.54% 51.09 10.081 75.47% -0.462 -0.0626
Elemental Invocation 1 12 9.09% 34.83 2.168 83.33% -0.427 0.0121
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 193 9.84% 40.9 2.794 75.13% -1.209 -0.843
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 52.94% 34.12 2.196 82.35% 0.15 0.5912
Rituals of Terror 3 19 47.37% 44.68 6.732 89.47% 0.617 1.2605
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 7 71.43% 33.29 1.07 71.43% -0.419 0.2232
Second Wave 0 337 42.43% 30.63 -0.84 81.9% -0.535 -0.1065
Ward the Shores 2 24 41.67% 29.38 -1.157 58.33% -1.538 -0.5009

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 121 33.36 -1.335 67.77% -2.036 0.0369
Aid From Lesser Spirits 130 36.13 -0.207 70.77% -1.902 0.0171
All Things Weaken 85 32.18 -1.773 64.71% -2.126 0.0332
Back Against the Wall 145 37.26 0.01 66.9% -1.947 0.1464
Disintegrating Ecosystem 104 33.01 -1.939 61.54% -2.205 0.0192
Downward Spiral 211 28.58 -2.622 62.56% -2.037 -0.0157
Erosion of Will 111 31.77 -2.286 59.46% -2.275 -0.0664
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 36.2 0.14 93.48% -0.398 0.2942
Memory Fades to Dust 208 24.55 -3.693 52.4% -2.353 -0.1349
Power Corrodes the Spirit 81 33.64 -0.976 67.9% -1.947 0.0739
Promising Farmlands 115 30.82 -2.59 61.74% -2.277 -0.0623
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 33 41.39 2.271 100.0% 0.778 1.1893
Thriving Communities 94 34.07 -1.873 63.83% -2.223 -0.1301
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.525 62.86% -1.662 0.5639
Unnatural Proliferation 100 36.23 -0.596 65.0% -2.122 -0.0323
Untended Land Crumbles 76 33.47 -1.517 64.47% -2.113 -0.0075

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2136 42.3% 31.9 -0.518 78.56% -0.18 -1.2927
B 2253 39.83% 31.7 -0.61 79.58% -0.171 -1.3793
C 2290 41.02% 32.81 0.184 80.13% -0.032 -1.4718
D 2094 40.79% 32.23 -0.519 80.52% -0.114 -1.3161
E 1050 43.64% 36.02 0.652 84.95% -0.099 -1.4116
F 1109 41.54% 35.21 0.421 84.31% -0.038 -1.304
G 914 40.97% 34.68 0.073 84.03% -0.181 -1.4376
H 949 42.58% 36.06 0.859 85.46% 0.124 -1.1423
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.835 100.0% 0.243 -0.7377
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.492 100.0% 0.223 -0.7085
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.822 100.0% 0.021 -1.0051
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.822 100.0% 0.021 -0.5995
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.492 100.0% 0.223 -0.5024

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 170 0.0% 14.94 -5.481 54.12% -2.3 -0.2457
Not Using Events or Tokens 445 40.13% 20.02 -4.142 66.74% -0.489 -0.2713
Skip Initial Invader Actions 169 26.98% 29.6 0.149 84.02% 0.446 -0.2474
Start of Game Growth 253 26.07% 29.7 -0.43 84.58% -0.084 -0.5472
Unlimited Undo 561 35.55% 37.9 2.366 85.03% 0.378 -0.043
Using Tokens but Not Events 477 28.18% 27.02 -2.572 83.44% -0.058 -0.1104

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 346 22.34 14.16%
II 1403 30.81 75.98%
III 1698 34.31 90.46%
IV 820 37.5 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1327
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 891
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 731
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 168
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 46
Win: Scenario condition 54
Lose: Blight pool ran out 504
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)