Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 48 35.42% 29.33 -0.213 87.5% -0.172 0.3358
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 40.0% 32.2 2.932 87.5% 0.31 0.7135
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 59 55.93% 38.05 2.621 77.97% -0.479 0.6983
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 58.0% 43.54 4.853 88.0% -0.02 1.4058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 36 75.0% 46.19 6.742 75.0% 0.131 1.7114
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 75.0% 53.44 81.25%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 56 85.71% 46.18 17.738 53.57% 0.073 2.3444
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 135 34.85% 24.37 -2.649 85.19% 0.3 0.2534
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 127 36.59% 29.51 2.566 87.4% 0.361 0.1286
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 268 42.54% 40.99 2.934 93.66% -0.11 0.0793
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 245 36.89% 46.17 9.144 90.2% 0.148 0.5144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 115 53.04% 46.92 4.117 82.61% -0.47 -0.1117
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 40 72.5% 52.63 8.764 72.5% -0.12 1.0464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 83 79.52% 45.48 8.292 53.01% -0.652 0.7942
The Kingdom of England 0 1 108 30.48% 23.46 2.489 80.56% 0.155 0.7117
The Kingdom of England 1 3 81 33.75% 34.53 1.653 87.65% 0.267 0.945
The Kingdom of England 2 4 103 47.57% 35.1 -2.536 76.7% -1.152 0.0021
The Kingdom of England 3 6 113 47.32% 41.07 10.161 71.68% 0.343 2.0197
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 56.34% 43.97 7.796 69.93% -0.181 1.2863
The Kingdom of England 5 9 50 76.0% 51.78 13.576 72.0% 0.202 2.2453
The Kingdom of England 6 11 277 62.45% 52.17 12.64 60.65% -0.501 2.0622
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 40.0% 30.07 -2.283 91.67% 0.183 0.856
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 57 47.37% 33.54 0.225 85.96% 0.174 1.2461
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 70 41.43% 37.23 0.636 67.14% -0.36 1.7553
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 90 44.44% 48.61 1.076 76.67% -0.594 1.5359
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 60 45.0% 51.6 73.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 50 84.0% 49.6 31.104 52.0% 0.148 2.2133
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 149 59.06% 55.79 15.839 61.07% 0.006 2.1807
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 60.0% 29.8 -2.586 80.0% -0.518 -0.6114
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 25.0 3.573 50.0% 0.045 0.9353
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 80.0% 50.8 7.16 60.0% 0.146 1.0048
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 53.0 12.119 100.0% 0.127 1.3445
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 56.5 6.326 100.0% -0.583 0.6552
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 46.15% 62.23 14.534 84.62% -0.476 1.082
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 72 41.67% 21.31 -2.785 77.78% 0.258 0.4288
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 66 30.3% 28.11 -8.617 89.39% -0.983 -0.7638
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 107 32.38% 32.27 6.466 85.05% 0.151 0.4308
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 126 42.86% 41.69 4.99 87.3% -0.128 0.3238
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 47.83% 40.84 7.688 75.0% 0.335 1.3354
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 30 66.67% 41.47 5.248 66.67% 0.256 1.2965
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 111 66.67% 47.38 12.592 72.97% 0.453 1.6118
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 32 31.25% 24.59 0.779 93.75% 0.229 -0.2232
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 20 60.0% 32.25 -2.019 85.0% 0.088 0.8911
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 28 50.0% 37.32 4.414 82.14% 0.148 0.5848
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 76.47% 42.82 7.788 70.59% 0.212 1.4509
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 50.0% 48.13 11.551 81.25% 0.068 1.2105
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 88.89% 46.94 22.058 38.89% 0.254 2.3889
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 48 75.0% 53.85 7.445 52.08% -0.737 1.2342

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 31 33.33% 26.03 70.97% -0.746 -0.3025 -0.276
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% 0.089 0.1863 -0.81
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 23 31.82% 30.52 78.26% -0.396 0.1501 0.132
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 257 10.51% 39.61 80.16% -0.329 -0.0979 -0.138
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25% 0.045 0.4522
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.499
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.103
Second Wave 0 563 38.19% 29.48 85.44% 0.187 0.8799 -0.591
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.651

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 162 34.02 66.67% 0.58 2.5509 -0.644
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.233 0.5452 -0.315
All Things Weaken 125 31.7 62.4% -1.258 0.7905 -1.3
Back Against the Wall 205 35.89 62.93% -0.148 1.7909 -0.979
Disintegrating Ecosystem 140 32.76 60.71% 0.154 2.2821 -0.713
Downward Spiral 276 28.76 63.77% -1.135 0.8259 -0.733
Erosion of Will 143 32.07 58.04% -0.215 1.8668 -0.425
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.914 -0.4121 -0.085
Memory Fades to Dust 271 24.49 55.72% -0.847 1.2939 -0.136
Power Corrodes the Spirit 129 31.07 65.12% -0.684 1.2963 -0.904
Promising Farmlands 159 29.45 59.75% -1.02 1.0012 -1.285
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 42.94 100.0% 0.216 0.7129 0.583
Thriving Communities 139 31.94 64.75% -0.807 1.2518 -1.344
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.45
Unnatural Proliferation 143 36.62 62.94% -0.725 1.2315 -0.979
Untended Land Crumbles 109 31.04 64.22% -0.736 1.2971 -0.923

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2953 40.97% 31.8 79.65% -0.078 0.6586 -0.267
B 3118 38.88% 31.59 80.28% -0.469 0.2286 -0.298
C 3188 39.56% 32.78 80.87% 0.646 1.1153 0.279
D 2797 39.93% 31.94 81.52% 0.035 0.7446 -0.264
E 1705 39.93% 34.19 85.16% -0.072 0.4726 0.066
F 1580 41.72% 34.24 84.24% 0.077 0.7385 0.159
G 1348 40.46% 33.34 83.9% -0.23 0.4005 0.065
H 1365 41.44% 34.44 84.54% 0.109 0.7734 0.28
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 229 0.0% 16.17 59.39% -0.783 1.4462
Not Using Events or Tokens 583 41.47% 20.41 69.47% 0.02 0.2471 0.506
Skip Initial Invader Actions 262 19.27% 31.19 88.55% 0.011 -0.9687 0.641
Start of Game Growth 333 26.22% 31.17 86.79% -0.136 -0.5932 0.816
Unlimited Undo 839 30.97% 36.7 87.6% 0.193 -0.3586 0.879
Using Tokens but Not Events 733 23.61% 27.34 86.63% -0.123 0.0321 -0.964

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 494 22.65 18.62%
II 2129 31.08 78.11%
III 2317 34.66 90.5%
IV 1102 37.91 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 92
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2076
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1605
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1095
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46
Lose: Adversary condition 220
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 64
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 712
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)