Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 33.33% 29.22 -1.184 88.89% 0.045 0.3284
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 30 36.67% 33.0 1.003 93.33% 0.357 0.7677
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 50 56.0% 39.36 3.878 82.0% -0.407 0.4695
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 45 55.56% 43.98 6.144 88.89% -0.168 1.0776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 34 76.47% 45.59 7.294 73.53% -0.645 0.8569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 15 73.33% 55.6 12.297 86.67% 0.269 2.2228
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 50 86.0% 46.44 8.192 56.0% -1.19 0.8529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 105 31.37% 24.51 -2.874 84.76% -0.141 -0.0995
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 97 37.63% 28.49 -0.707 85.57% 0.116 0.0974
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 229 42.36% 40.96 5.129 95.2% 1.149 1.1621
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 192 36.65% 46.5 7.464 91.15% 0.268 0.5563
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 97 52.58% 47.19 8.135 85.57% 0.009 0.3763
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 28 67.86% 53.82 11.632 75.0% -0.488 0.3381
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 69 79.71% 45.28 7.479 52.17% -1.623 -0.3854
The Kingdom of England 0 1 84 30.49% 22.89 -3.205 82.14% -0.395 -0.0629
The Kingdom of England 1 3 69 33.82% 33.71 1.494 85.51% -0.286 0.2279
The Kingdom of England 2 4 81 40.74% 36.48 2.638 82.72% -0.545 0.423
The Kingdom of England 3 6 98 47.96% 40.58 4.36 70.41% -1.467 0.1114
The Kingdom of England 4 7 121 56.67% 43.77 6.078 70.25% -1.251 0.2472
The Kingdom of England 5 9 44 75.0% 53.0 10.036 75.0% -0.752 1.3213
The Kingdom of England 6 11 241 63.07% 52.92 10.118 64.32% -1.711 0.5367
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 57 42.11% 29.51 -1.024 91.23% 0.334 0.8479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 33.57 1.993 87.76% 0.26 1.1595
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 55 40.0% 37.38 2.967 67.27% -1.427 0.716
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 78 46.15% 49.88 8.953 79.49% -0.56 1.6362
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 56 42.86% 52.98 10.728 76.79% -0.871 1.2876
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 36 83.33% 47.89 8.498 55.56% -1.186 0.6314
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 125 56.8% 54.94 11.668 60.0% -1.544 0.5532
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 58 48.28% 20.22 -4.736 74.14% -0.636 -0.5504
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 49 28.57% 28.02 -1.137 91.84% 0.341 0.3748
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 90 32.58% 32.36 0.581 85.56% -0.383 -0.148
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 113 42.48% 41.69 5.165 88.5% 0.05 0.3366
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 75 44.0% 40.71 4.697 74.67% -0.76 0.0231
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 60.87% 43.57 5.741 73.91% -0.808 0.3581
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 85 63.53% 48.41 8.457 75.29% -0.708 0.4164
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 33.33% 24.29 -3.382 91.67% 0.0 -0.1012
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 17 58.82% 30.59 0.459 82.35% 0.109 0.8882
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 18 50.0% 38.56 3.637 88.89% 0.008 0.4272
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 24 79.17% 41.08 4.876 70.83% -0.492 0.762
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 50.0% 47.43 8.036 78.57% -0.45 0.667
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 38.85 4.264 38.46% -1.49 0.5092
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 37 83.78% 54.08 11.197 56.76% -1.607 0.2714

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 29 28.57% 28.66 -2.202 72.41% -0.893 -0.324
Dahan Insurrection 4 60 35.59% 51.48 10.074 75.0% -0.529 -0.1309
Elemental Invocation 1 15 7.14% 34.0 1.47 86.67% -0.395 0.0693
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 10.19% 40.77 2.586 76.21% -1.22 -0.8534
Powers Long Forgotten 1 18 55.56% 35.44 2.558 83.33% 0.234 0.6785
Rituals of Terror 3 19 47.37% 44.68 6.578 89.47% 0.621 1.2662
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 62.5% 33.38 0.885 75.0% -0.427 0.2181
Second Wave 0 350 41.71% 30.82 -0.804 82.0% -0.528 -0.0997
Ward the Shores 2 25 40.0% 29.32 -1.245 60.0% -1.497 -0.4629

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 131 33.27 -1.536 67.18% -2.101 -0.0279
Aid From Lesser Spirits 142 36.77 -0.068 71.13% -1.888 0.0304
All Things Weaken 95 33.32 -1.581 63.16% -2.233 -0.0623
Back Against the Wall 162 38.02 0.226 67.28% -1.948 0.1436
Disintegrating Ecosystem 115 33.32 -2.122 59.13% -2.334 -0.1093
Downward Spiral 222 29.3 -2.454 63.96% -2.001 0.0215
Erosion of Will 118 33.01 -1.86 61.02% -2.222 -0.0127
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 51 36.22 0.05 94.12% -0.338 0.3488
Memory Fades to Dust 222 24.99 -3.642 53.6% -2.322 -0.1035
Power Corrodes the Spirit 92 32.53 -1.589 68.48% -2.042 -0.0181
Promising Farmlands 123 30.5 -2.796 62.6% -2.264 -0.0501
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 44.2 3.183 100.0% 0.879 1.2888
Thriving Communities 103 34.17 -1.904 65.05% -2.212 -0.1176
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.659 62.86% -1.64 0.586
Unnatural Proliferation 111 36.8 -0.536 65.77% -2.094 -0.0073
Untended Land Crumbles 82 33.15 -1.726 64.63% -2.161 -0.055

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2290 42.12% 32.47 -0.418 78.95% -0.184 -0.9442
B 2411 39.82% 32.14 -0.579 79.8% -0.178 -1.0354
C 2463 40.92% 33.41 0.312 80.51% -0.028 -1.1168
D 2221 41.38% 32.53 -0.557 80.73% -0.108 -0.9586
E 1180 44.25% 36.12 0.562 85.25% -0.063 -1.0286
F 1216 42.33% 35.36 0.348 84.29% -0.03 -0.9445
G 996 41.52% 34.65 -0.057 83.94% -0.184 -1.0892
H 1032 42.98% 36.24 0.821 85.08% 0.082 -0.8327
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.85 100.0% 0.244 -0.4059
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.529 100.0% 0.221 -0.3781
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.83 100.0% 0.023 -0.6833
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.83 100.0% 0.023 -0.2502
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.529 100.0% 0.221 -0.1779

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 175 0.0% 14.72 -5.687 53.14% -2.371 -0.3146
Not Using Events or Tokens 457 40.37% 19.95 -4.263 66.52% -0.496 -0.2806
Skip Initial Invader Actions 175 26.15% 29.82 0.148 84.0% 0.431 -0.256
Start of Game Growth 260 25.46% 29.83 -0.474 84.62% -0.087 -0.5575
Unlimited Undo 627 33.28% 38.63 2.511 85.81% 0.41 -0.0098
Using Tokens but Not Events 507 27.27% 27.42 -2.538 84.22% -0.032 -0.0845

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 363 22.35 13.5%
II 1529 30.84 76.06%
III 1823 34.35 90.73%
IV 890 37.52 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1443
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 983
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 801
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 177
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 60
Lose: Blight pool ran out 546
Lose: Spirit destroyed 41

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)