Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 28.21 -1.587 85.71% -0.023 0.2574
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 23 39.13% 31.96 0.337 91.3% 0.182 0.5554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 39 53.85% 38.49 3.321 79.49% -0.536 0.3113
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 34 55.88% 42.65 5.7 85.29% -0.348 0.8894
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 26 76.92% 43.42 6.336 69.23% -0.7 0.8224
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 72.73% 53.27 11.153 81.82% 0.035 2.0632
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 36 83.33% 44.33 7.434 52.78% -1.191 0.9016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 78 32.0% 23.83 -2.863 82.05% -0.164 -0.1167
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 75 37.5% 28.45 -0.603 84.0% 0.041 0.0121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 184 44.57% 41.24 5.272 97.28% 1.644 1.642
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 129 42.97% 46.2 7.743 92.25% 0.644 0.9284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 73 54.79% 47.1 8.174 84.93% 0.101 0.4791
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 23 65.22% 55.39 12.503 78.26% -0.2 0.6334
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 56 78.57% 45.2 7.531 51.79% -1.517 -0.2677
The Kingdom of England 0 1 68 30.3% 22.41 -3.205 79.41% -0.391 -0.058
The Kingdom of England 1 3 54 35.85% 32.91 1.201 81.48% -0.528 -0.0452
The Kingdom of England 2 4 58 41.38% 36.22 2.584 82.76% -0.438 0.5191
The Kingdom of England 3 6 71 49.3% 40.21 4.119 69.01% -1.374 0.2032
The Kingdom of England 4 7 78 55.84% 43.94 6.371 70.51% -1.008 0.5142
The Kingdom of England 5 9 33 66.67% 51.09 9.282 69.7% -0.951 1.1132
The Kingdom of England 6 11 192 61.98% 52.59 9.957 63.02% -1.694 0.5612
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 44 38.64% 29.43 -0.831 88.64% 0.169 0.6932
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 45 40.0% 33.58 2.004 86.67% 0.095 0.9863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 45 37.78% 39.22 4.047 71.11% -1.101 1.0276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 38 68.42% 46.92 8.641 73.68% -0.288 1.8984
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 47 42.55% 52.0 10.37 74.47% -0.951 1.1939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 31 83.87% 47.52 8.563 54.84% -1.114 0.7044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 108 56.48% 53.9 11.232 57.41% -1.54 0.595
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 46 45.65% 20.8 -4.074 76.09% -0.264 -0.1782
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 39 28.21% 27.9 -0.829 89.74% 0.337 0.3468
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 67 27.27% 32.73 0.847 85.07% -0.231 -0.0143
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 48.53% 41.29 5.18 86.76% 0.044 0.3286
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 53 43.4% 39.38 4.187 71.7% -0.721 0.0566
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 55.0% 45.6 6.78 80.0% -0.478 0.6867
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73 58.9% 48.93 8.72 76.71% -0.565 0.5675
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 20 30.0% 24.45 -3.182 90.0% -0.031 -0.1485
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 71.43% 29.07 -0.029 78.57% 0.09 0.7781
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 45.45% 40.09 4.175 90.91% 0.055 0.4909
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 86.67% 42.73 5.15 73.33% -0.177 1.0976
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 60.0% 47.5 8.27 80.0% -0.137 1.0209
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 100.0% 40.1 4.398 40.0% -1.404 0.6322
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 24 79.17% 52.79 10.516 54.17% -1.456 0.4936

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 21 35.0% 28.76 -1.993 71.43% -0.664 -0.0912
Dahan Insurrection 4 49 39.58% 50.9 9.946 73.47% -0.469 -0.0685
Elemental Invocation 1 4 0.0% 41.0 4.31 100.0% 0.203 0.6686
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 177 9.04% 40.86 2.683 73.45% -1.262 -0.8864
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 53.33% 35.4 2.826 86.67% 0.482 0.929
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 45.0 6.754 88.24% 0.462 1.0843
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 83.33% 31.67 -0.072 66.67% -0.43 0.1946
Second Wave 0 269 44.61% 30.38 -0.925 79.93% -0.59 -0.1714
Ward the Shores 2 23 43.48% 29.74 -0.937 60.87% -1.27 -0.2392

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 102 33.93 -1.064 66.67% -1.986 0.0821
Aid From Lesser Spirits 109 35.88 -0.305 69.72% -1.798 0.119
All Things Weaken 68 32.51 -1.702 61.76% -1.999 0.1608
Back Against the Wall 120 37.26 -0.052 64.17% -1.916 0.1762
Disintegrating Ecosystem 87 31.52 -2.621 58.62% -2.218 0.0035
Downward Spiral 185 28.44 -2.577 61.62% -1.929 0.0854
Erosion of Will 93 32.41 -1.919 60.22% -2.141 0.0703
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 36 36.81 0.271 91.67% -0.436 0.2757
Memory Fades to Dust 182 24.31 -3.741 51.1% -2.299 -0.0837
Power Corrodes the Spirit 59 34.49 -0.803 69.49% -1.727 0.2931
Promising Farmlands 101 30.41 -2.699 61.39% -2.203 0.0113
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 29 45.0 3.596 100.0% 0.804 1.2213
Thriving Communities 75 35.09 -1.311 66.67% -1.918 0.189
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.488 62.86% -1.617 0.5987
Unnatural Proliferation 82 35.63 -0.964 63.41% -2.097 -0.0167
Untended Land Crumbles 58 36.07 -0.418 68.97% -1.652 0.4435

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1761 44.09% 31.78 -0.458 77.17% -0.141 -1.2143
B 1835 41.61% 31.46 -0.701 77.87% -0.194 -1.3589
C 1873 43.02% 32.24 -0.074 78.0% -0.091 -1.488
D 1747 40.98% 32.47 -0.32 79.97% -0.066 -1.2237
E 772 48.31% 36.4 0.578 83.03% -0.185 -1.4414
F 908 41.43% 35.54 0.537 83.7% -0.052 -1.278
G 729 41.6% 35.25 0.254 84.09% -0.098 -1.3103
H 773 43.18% 36.29 0.797 84.48% 0.033 -1.1886
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.894 100.0% 0.276 -0.6596
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.614 100.0% 0.256 -0.6138
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.827 100.0% 0.021 -0.9624
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.827 100.0% 0.021 -0.6045
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.614 100.0% 0.256 -0.4096

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 147 0.0% 14.27 -5.706 52.38% -2.132 -0.0932
Not Using Events or Tokens 377 42.38% 19.43 -4.311 63.93% -0.617 -0.3963
Skip Initial Invader Actions 140 27.27% 30.57 0.437 83.57% 0.386 -0.3198
Start of Game Growth 216 25.0% 30.48 -0.282 84.72% -0.137 -0.5964
Unlimited Undo 393 39.83% 37.87 2.214 83.97% 0.442 0.0399
Using Tokens but Not Events 382 31.49% 27.05 -2.473 82.46% 0.023 -0.0226

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 299 22.34 10.37%
II 1105 30.71 74.03%
III 1408 34.23 90.27%
IV 656 37.48 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1063
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 646
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 567
Lose: Invader deck ran out 33
Lose: Adversary condition 149
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 45
Win: Scenario condition 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 439
Lose: Spirit destroyed 29

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)