Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 32 33.33% 25.94 71.88% 0.178 0.677 -0.282
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% -0.827
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 23 31.82% 30.52 78.26% -0.409 0.2001 0.132
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 258 10.47% 39.55 79.84% -0.842 -0.6184 -0.126
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.492
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.108
Second Wave 0 569 37.79% 29.47 85.59% 0.158 0.7485 -0.589
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.654

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 163 33.96 66.87% 0.651 2.6443 -0.662
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.038 0.7373 -0.324
All Things Weaken 126 31.87 62.7% -0.799 1.2609 -1.323
Back Against the Wall 205 35.89 62.93% -0.021 1.9138 -0.981
Disintegrating Ecosystem 140 32.76 60.71% 0.053 2.133 -0.709
Downward Spiral 276 28.76 63.77% -0.654 1.2705 -0.707
Erosion of Will 143 32.07 58.04% -0.466 1.6247 -0.426
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.809 -0.3084 -0.087
Memory Fades to Dust 272 24.53 55.88% -0.789 1.3218 -0.147
Power Corrodes the Spirit 131 30.87 64.89% -0.793 1.1543 -0.903
Promising Farmlands 161 29.35 59.01% -1.728 0.2818 -1.347
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 42.94 100.0% 0.117 0.5862 0.579
Thriving Communities 139 31.94 64.75% -0.397 1.6686 -1.355
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.448
Unnatural Proliferation 143 36.62 62.94% -0.646 1.2959 -1.043
Untended Land Crumbles 109 31.04 64.22% -0.744 1.2936 -0.936

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2962 40.89% 31.77 79.68% 0.114 0.8055 -0.245
B 3131 38.92% 31.57 80.29% -0.088 0.576 -0.306
C 3200 39.5% 32.77 80.84% 0.349 0.785 0.287
D 2809 39.87% 31.91 81.56% -0.107 0.5692 -0.283
E 1714 39.8% 34.16 85.18% 0.302 0.7941 0.084
F 1589 41.54% 34.21 84.33% 0.041 0.6854 0.152
G 1357 40.56% 33.31 83.86% -0.241 0.3329 0.051
H 1377 41.15% 34.38 84.53% -0.345 0.2765 0.282
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 230 0.0% 16.2 59.57% -0.611 1.5813
Not Using Events or Tokens 586 41.18% 20.46 69.62% 0.305 0.5485 0.492
Skip Initial Invader Actions 263 19.27% 31.16 88.59% -0.184 -1.2187 0.645
Start of Game Growth 334 26.22% 31.14 86.83% -0.271 -0.7899 0.815
Unlimited Undo 841 30.93% 36.67 87.63% 0.015 -0.4983 0.898
Using Tokens but Not Events 737 23.5% 27.33 86.7% 0.318 0.4848 -0.96

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 496 22.67 18.75%
II 2147 31.1 78.16%
III 2323 34.68 90.53%
IV 1104 37.93 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 93
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2082
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1620
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1097
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46
Lose: Adversary condition 222
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 713
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)