Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 25.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.15 0.0153
Blitz 0 41 27.78% 24.88 68.29% -0.204 -0.0409 -0.238
Dahan Insurrection 4 60 33.9% 51.83 75.0% 0.431 0.25 -0.413
Despicable Theft 2 4 100.0% 22.75 75.0% 0.055 0.6184
Elemental Invocation 1 27 34.62% 29.59 77.78% -0.467 0.3008 0.161
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 406 7.64% 26.83 54.68% -0.533 -1.3117 -0.166
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 58.82% 33.82 76.47%
Rituals of Terror 3 24 29.17% 42.46 66.67% 0.124 0.1535 0.38
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.073
Second Wave 0 740 38.51% 27.64 83.11% 0.176 0.343 -0.769
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 28.33 66.67% -0.152 0.6475 0.409
Ward the Shores 2 41 20.0% 16.12 34.15% -0.426 0.4349 -0.583

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 174 32.72 65.52% 0.822 0.969 -0.318
Aid From Lesser Spirits 189 35.58 69.84% 0.487 0.3834 -0.462
All Things Weaken 150 31.2 62.0% 0.189 0.4881 -1.05
Attenuated Essence 12 36.75 66.67% 0.242 0.302 0.236
Back Against the Wall 216 35.72 63.43% 0.71 0.7331 -0.819
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 22.88 50.0% -0.758 -0.606 -0.537
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 15.5 50.0% 0.259 0.4071
Disintegrating Ecosystem 161 31.57 60.87% 0.023 0.387 -0.677
Downward Spiral 312 27.2 60.58% -0.636 -0.5042 -0.773
Erosion of Will 161 31.29 58.39% 0.37 0.6102 -0.544
Intensifying Exploitation 4 36.75 50.0% -0.38 -0.1548 -0.467
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 67 36.76 91.04% 0.254 -0.3229 0.017
Memory Fades to Dust 319 23.26 52.35% -0.423 -0.1702 -0.303
Power Corrodes the Spirit 147 30.07 63.27% 0.285 0.4512 -1.003
Promising Farmlands 169 28.82 59.76% -0.319 0.0051 -1.205
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 27.29 71.43% 0.114 0.2469 0.178
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 22.77 38.46% 0.175 0.5812 -0.261
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 41.0 96.08% -0.322 -1.042 0.257
Thriving Communities 158 30.51 63.92% 0.47 0.725 -1.183
Thriving Crops 7 36.43 71.43% 1.238 1.104 0.537
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.506
Unnatural Proliferation 163 35.15 61.96% 0.521 0.6735 -0.924
Untended Land Crumbles 126 29.79 61.11% -1.002 -0.7488 -0.871

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3503 38.92% 29.29 74.71% -0.473 0.6209 -0.236
B 3921 35.07% 27.78 71.82% -0.275 0.725 -0.274
C 4014 35.48% 28.91 72.92% 0.2 1.0452 0.187
D 3300 38.27% 29.91 77.15% -0.338 0.6739 -0.233
E 2347 33.66% 28.71 72.52% -0.26 0.5894 0.138
F 1896 40.91% 31.92 79.43% 0.34 1.3308 0.035
G 1607 39.67% 31.68 80.65% 0.654 1.5871 0.236
H 1628 40.72% 32.28 80.84% 0.179 1.1225 0.166
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 293 0.0% 14.21 52.56% -1.582 -0.9832 -0.599
Not Using Events or Tokens 756 39.56% 18.5 62.83% -0.462 0.0565 0.011
Skip Initial Invader Actions 319 17.08% 28.63 80.56% -0.945 -1.6184 0.103
Start of Game Growth 447 25.27% 28.5 77.18% 0.091 -0.2849 0.313
Unlimited Undo 977 28.67% 34.23 84.14% 0.916 0.9137 0.864
Using Tokens but Not Events 1159 18.49% 20.52 65.92% -0.177 -0.1217 -1.366

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1098 17.24 9.93%
II 2516 30.65 76.51%
III 2588 34.73 90.57%
IV 1238 38.24 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 109
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2322
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1863
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1228
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 548
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 269
Win: Sacrifice victory 13
Lose: Scenario condition 80
Win: Scenario condition 75
Lose: Blight pool ran out 810
Lose: Spirit destroyed 73

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-08 03:44:05 (Pacific Time)