Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Other (3 Boards)

↵ Back to Statistics Homepage

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	1105	36.5%	32.3	-0.532	79.55%	-0.842	-0.7381
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	396	51.73%	27.96	-2.445	71.72%	-1.217	-1.0197
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	347	34.59%	30.88	-1.235	84.44%	-0.688	-0.8018
Eyes Watch From the Trees	498	32.31%	32.69	-0.535	87.75%	-0.458	-0.8623
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	575	40.99%	37.19	0.838	85.22%	-0.539	-0.8442
Fractured Days Split the Sky	146	34.25%	35.14	0.367	84.93%	-0.717	-0.3688
Heart of the Wildfire	334	60.31%	28.95	-2.377	67.37%	-1.05	-0.7314
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	1055	35.28%	36.93	0.948	85.5%	-0.431	-0.7731
Lightning's Swift Strike	886	35.08%	29.26	-1.202	77.99%	-0.829	-0.6028
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	250	39.68%	34.31	-0.208	90.0%	-0.298	-0.5845

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	36	33.33%	29.22	-1.195	88.89%	0.018	0.3072
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	31	35.48%	33.13	0.985	93.55%	0.365	0.7789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	52	53.85%	39.58	3.98	82.69%	-0.387	0.4965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	45	55.56%	43.98	6.159	88.89%	-0.159	1.0828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	34	76.47%	45.59	7.318	73.53%	-0.629	0.8673
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	16	75.0%	53.44	11.181	81.25%	-0.043	1.8957
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	51	86.27%	45.98	7.995	54.9%	-1.229	0.8141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	108	32.38%	24.47	-2.885	85.19%	-0.091	-0.0495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	100	38.54%	28.23	-0.822	85.0%	0.055	0.0372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	238	41.6%	41.38	5.214	94.96%	1.089	1.1021

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	29	28.57%	28.66	-2.194	72.41%	-0.872	-0.3063
Dahan Insurrection	4	66	33.85%	52.61	10.487	77.27%	-0.477	-0.0769
Elemental Invocation	1	16	13.33%	33.13	0.796	81.25%	-0.778	-0.2753
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	215	9.77%	40.29	2.481	77.21%	-1.179	-0.8139
Powers Long Forgotten	1	18	55.56%	35.44	2.539	83.33%	0.24	0.686
Rituals of Terror	3	19	47.37%	44.68	6.544	89.47%	0.6	1.2451
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	8	62.5%	33.38	0.872	75.0%	-0.404	0.2427
Second Wave	0	356	42.42%	30.64	-0.864	81.74%	-0.529	-0.0994
Ward the Shores	2	25	40.0%	29.32	-1.286	60.0%	-1.525	-0.4934

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	133	33.2	-1.61	66.92%	-2.13	-0.0604
Aid From Lesser Spirits	145	36.76	-0.176	70.34%	-1.95	-0.0374
All Things Weaken	97	33.23	-1.62	62.89%	-2.254	-0.0944
Back Against the Wall	168	37.35	0.008	66.67%	-1.985	0.1016
Disintegrating Ecosystem	118	33.75	-1.944	60.17%	-2.289	-0.0672
Downward Spiral	234	29.53	-2.474	63.68%	-2.073	-0.0516
Erosion of Will	120	33.2	-1.807	60.83%	-2.237	-0.0294
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	52	36.38	0.131	94.23%	-0.339	0.3399
Memory Fades to Dust	225	24.85	-3.729	53.33%	-2.361	-0.1461
Power Corrodes the Spirit	95	32.49	-1.622	68.42%	-2.068	-0.0467
Promising Farmlands	127	30.23	-2.925	62.99%	-2.264	-0.0562
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	41	43.59	3.001	100.0%	0.888	1.2994
Thriving Communities	106	33.75	-2.107	64.15%	-2.274	-0.1859
Tipping Point	35	32.77	-1.689	62.86%	-1.656	0.5687
Unnatural Proliferation	116	37.04	-0.421	65.52%	-2.101	-0.0198
Untended Land Crumbles	86	32.69	-1.963	63.95%	-2.229	-0.1268

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	2351	42.19%	32.6	-0.348	79.07%	-0.166	-0.8537
B	2485	39.89%	32.2	-0.568	79.92%	-0.176	-0.9597
C	2541	41.04%	33.39	0.231	80.44%	-0.065	-1.0777
D	2273	41.46%	32.55	-0.552	80.77%	-0.113	-0.8901
E	1225	43.59%	36.09	0.558	85.14%	-0.063	-0.9578
East	2	50.0%	37.0	1.839	100.0%	0.24	-0.3364
F	1250	42.46%	35.27	0.286	84.16%	-0.046	-0.8866
G	1026	41.36%	34.78	0.006	84.11%	-0.159	-0.9907
H	1063	42.95%	36.25	0.821	85.23%	0.104	-0.735
Northeast	1	100.0%	53.0	8.548	100.0%	0.219	-0.306
Southeast	1	0.0%	21.0	-4.872	100.0%	0.021	-0.608
Southwest	1	0.0%	21.0	-4.872	100.0%	0.021	-0.1775
West	1	100.0%	53.0	8.548	100.0%	0.219	-0.1086

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	180	0.0%	15.02	-5.636	54.44%	-2.368	-0.3155
Not Using Events or Tokens	462	40.48%	19.97	-4.243	66.88%	-0.466	-0.2516
Skip Initial Invader Actions	180	26.87%	29.82	0.066	83.33%	0.353	-0.3335
Start of Game Growth	274	27.07%	29.92	-0.465	84.31%	-0.127	-0.5964
Unlimited Undo	644	33.22%	38.47	2.457	85.87%	0.426	0.003
Using Tokens but Not Events	539	26.94%	27.96	-2.334	84.79%	0.034	-0.0169

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	370	22.37	14.32%
II	1587	30.88	76.12%
III	1876	34.39	90.62%
IV	907	37.55	99.67%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	178
Lose: Blight pool ran out	568
Lose: Invader deck ran out	41
Lose: Scenario condition	47
Lose: Spirit destroyed	41
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	47
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1022
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	1489
Win: Sacrifice victory	9
Win: Scenario condition	66
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	818

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)