Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 33.33% 25.0 2.06 66.67% 0.223 -0.2044
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 7.932 0.0% 0.648 0.5539
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 50.0% 60.5 7.381 100.0% 0.219 0.1016
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 100.0% 22.0 7.264 0.0% -0.102 0.2848
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 2.194 0.0% -0.217 0.5665
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 100.0% 53.67 6.168 66.67% -1.256 0.4221
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 67 32.84% 24.6 3.911 70.15% 0.207 0.5886
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 60 41.67% 34.3 88.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 81 58.02% 33.77 6.861 66.67% 0.164 0.6545
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 76 55.26% 38.41 9.012 73.68% 0.379 1.33
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 78.0% 44.86 -9.021 72.0% -0.936 0.6479
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 75.0% 46.95 70.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 74 74.32% 39.09 -1.114 43.24% -0.564 1.437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 287 21.48% 16.03 -1.517 54.36% -0.217 -0.0139
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 161 38.85% 28.88 0.253 85.09% -0.226 -0.2226
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 328 42.68% 38.86 4.013 88.72% 0.23 0.3051
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 310 34.09% 41.06 4.471 79.03% -0.378 -0.094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 144 54.93% 45.28 7.967 79.17% -0.486 -0.1493
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 48 64.58% 51.54 3.435 70.83% -0.806 -0.4043
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 109 76.15% 41.31 2.753 46.79% -1.418 -0.1395
The Kingdom of England 0 1 148 28.47% 20.45 0.715 69.59% 0.695 1.0226
The Kingdom of England 1 3 107 34.91% 30.14 -1.308 75.7% -0.206 0.1525
The Kingdom of England 2 4 139 49.64% 31.84 3.86 68.35% 0.434 1.0074
The Kingdom of England 3 6 177 39.2% 32.58 -4.104 54.24% -1.313 -0.2097
The Kingdom of England 4 7 168 59.28% 40.75 11.798 61.9% 1.104 2.1463
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 75.86% 48.1 9.873 63.79% 0.147 1.8954
The Kingdom of England 6 11 303 59.08% 50.77 10.07 58.09% -0.901 0.9948
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 75 37.33% 27.85 -1.994 84.0% -0.464 -0.0368
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 66 53.03% 32.24 6.791 81.82% 0.636 1.4059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 108 37.96% 31.1 10.482 50.0% 0.366 1.5866
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 119 51.26% 44.95 7.005 67.23% -0.435 0.8703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 72 45.83% 49.85 19.912 70.83% 0.38 1.6814
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 55 78.18% 48.07 11.22 50.91% -0.453 0.5969
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 162 58.64% 53.57 9.191 58.02% -0.526 0.9497
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 34 29.41% 21.5 -4.674 61.76% -0.575 -0.3259
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 46.67% 26.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 20 45.0% 31.3 2.191 70.0% 0.349 0.6004
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 41 34.15% 33.22 9.056 56.1% 0.377 0.5448
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 17 58.82% 34.82 3.803 58.82% -0.066 0.6121
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 17 17.65% 28.06 7.821 47.06% 0.013 0.6356
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 38 47.37% 46.71 16.103 55.26% 0.192 1.2478
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 101 38.61% 19.06 -4.789 67.33% -0.157 0.0968
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 77 34.21% 28.17 -3.501 87.01% -0.124 -0.002
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 140 34.06% 32.02 -5.139 82.14% -0.999 -0.7296
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 146 43.15% 40.58 9.532 84.93% 0.873 1.2153
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 112 52.68% 38.61 6.704 68.75% 0.171 0.9255
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 36 69.44% 40.58 8.411 61.11% 0.112 1.2534
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 136 67.65% 44.91 4.599 67.65% -0.112 0.9319
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 40 40.0% 26.55 -2.351 87.5% 0.192 0.3963
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 24 62.5% 32.13 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 35 51.43% 33.54 71.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 73 47.95% 23.9 4.336 38.36% -0.443 0.4832
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 19 47.37% 44.95 15.324 73.68% 0.101 1.2794
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 21 90.48% 43.24 1.231 33.33% -0.367 1.3516
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 67 68.66% 47.3 3.046 41.79% -0.753 0.85

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 36.36% 22.09 72.73%
Blitz 0 52 40.43% 25.87 63.46% -0.14 0.063 -0.247
Dahan Insurrection 4 68 32.84% 48.82 72.06% -0.54 -0.8186 -0.457
Despicable Theft 2 5 80.0% 18.2 60.0% -0.756 0.0082
Elemental Invocation 1 36 51.43% 29.39 75.0% 0.067 0.7608 0.205
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 425 7.76% 26.88 55.29% -0.327 -0.9091 0.111
Powers Long Forgotten 1 23 52.17% 31.22 73.91%
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 41.04 65.38% 0.445
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 63.64% 36.45 81.82% -0.121
Second Wave 0 918 36.93% 26.87 82.03% 0.845 1.0871 -0.948
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 41.42 75.0% -0.441 0.4015 0.589
Ward the Shores 2 42 19.51% 16.83 35.71% -0.651

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 180 32.96 66.11% -0.468 -0.413 -0.238
Aid From Lesser Spirits 206 35.62 71.36% 0.131 0.052 -0.422
All Things Weaken 175 30.61 59.43% -1.057 -0.8311 -0.726
Attenuated Essence 31 33.29 58.06% -0.257 -0.2956 -0.264
Back Against the Wall 239 34.91 63.18% 0.103 0.1258 -0.572
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 19 20.0 42.11% -0.411 -0.2457 -0.906
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 19.8 45.0% -0.694 -0.7013 -0.312
Disintegrating Ecosystem 181 30.55 59.12% -0.59 -0.3984 -0.637
Downward Spiral 348 25.97 58.33% -0.376 -0.3148 -0.439
Erosion of Will 182 30.23 56.59% 0.512 0.6304 -0.283
Intensifying Exploitation 21 29.62 61.9% -0.658 -0.553 -0.857
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 80 34.75 90.0% 0.549 -0.0616 0.209
Memory Fades to Dust 370 22.74 50.81% -0.473 -0.2648 -0.574
Power Corrodes the Spirit 166 28.96 62.65% -0.075 0.0571 -0.569
Promising Farmlands 188 27.98 58.51% -0.718 -0.535 -1.109
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 30.2 53.33% 0.614 0.6226 -0.47
Slow Dissolution of Will 22 24.23 36.36% 0.137 0.4436 -0.751
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 55 39.65 96.36% -0.567 -1.2722 0.701
The Border of Life and Death 3 8.0 0.0% 0.101 -0.3749 -0.293
Thriving Communities 176 29.73 65.34% 0.644 0.7839 -0.911
Thriving Crops 13 31.15 46.15% -0.267 -0.5389 0.625
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.474
Unnatural Proliferation 185 33.13 60.54% -1.276 -1.1933 -0.878
Untended Land Crumbles 143 28.56 58.04% 0.644 0.8042 -0.681

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4163 37.85% 27.45 71.13% -0.401 0.5651 -0.211
B 4576 34.81% 26.27 68.55% -0.678 0.2056 -0.219
C 4733 34.72% 27.15 69.26% -0.256 0.43 0.13
D 3879 37.04% 28.34 73.73% 0.857 1.7422 -0.204
E 2814 32.1% 27.22 69.69% -0.153 0.5655 0.153
F 2209 39.59% 30.28 76.32% 0.337 1.1514 0.14
G 1888 39.95% 30.34 77.44% 0.097 0.8596 0.066
H 1919 39.71% 30.84 78.27% 0.226 1.003 0.166
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 363 0.0% 12.58 46.01% -1.828 -1.1798 -0.545
Not Using Events or Tokens 929 39.21% 16.78 56.62% -1.074 -0.6473 -0.769
Skip Initial Invader Actions 378 16.32% 28.41 78.57% 0.244 -0.5411 0.45
Start of Game Growth 511 23.93% 28.6 75.73% -0.464 -0.882 0.174
Unlimited Undo 1145 27.39% 32.42 80.87% -0.75 -0.8019 0.524
Using Tokens but Not Events 1373 18.81% 19.5 62.93% 0.624 0.569 -1.298

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1576 13.81 7.87%
II 2893 30.2 75.67%
III 2948 34.83 90.47%
IV 1361 38.63 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 124
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2644
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2124
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1348
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 974
Lose: Invader deck ran out 54
Lose: Adversary condition 315
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 83
Win: Scenario condition 80
Lose: Blight pool ran out 932
Lose: Spirit destroyed 86

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-10 23:34:23 (Pacific Time)