Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 33.33% 29.22 -1.179 88.89% 0.046 0.3289
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 30 36.67% 33.0 1.013 93.33% 0.365 0.7717
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 50 56.0% 39.36 3.88 82.0% -0.401 0.4741
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 45 55.56% 43.98 6.157 88.89% -0.163 1.0847
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 34 76.47% 45.59 7.298 73.53% -0.638 0.8637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 15 73.33% 55.6 12.301 86.67% 0.282 2.2341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 50 86.0% 46.44 8.191 56.0% -1.185 0.8579
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 105 31.37% 24.51 -2.873 84.76% -0.14 -0.0984
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 97 37.63% 28.49 -0.703 85.57% 0.119 0.1007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 228 42.11% 40.96 5.126 95.18% 1.146 1.1571
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 192 36.65% 46.5 7.469 91.15% 0.271 0.5582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 93 53.76% 46.99 8.096 84.95% -0.011 0.3568
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 28 67.86% 53.82 11.633 75.0% -0.487 0.3379
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 69 79.71% 45.28 7.482 52.17% -1.615 -0.3772
The Kingdom of England 0 1 84 30.49% 22.89 -3.2 82.14% -0.4 -0.0679
The Kingdom of England 1 3 69 33.82% 33.71 1.504 85.51% -0.286 0.2264
The Kingdom of England 2 4 80 40.0% 36.49 2.647 82.5% -0.589 0.3779
The Kingdom of England 3 6 98 47.96% 40.58 4.369 70.41% -1.466 0.1129
The Kingdom of England 4 7 118 57.26% 44.29 6.363 71.19% -1.164 0.3324
The Kingdom of England 5 9 44 75.0% 53.0 10.029 75.0% -0.761 1.3106
The Kingdom of England 6 11 240 62.92% 52.85 10.084 64.17% -1.716 0.5326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 57 42.11% 29.51 -1.03 91.23% 0.328 0.8418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 33.57 1.997 87.76% 0.261 1.162
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 55 40.0% 37.38 2.968 67.27% -1.435 0.7063
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 78 46.15% 49.88 8.958 79.49% -0.561 1.6358
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 56 42.86% 52.98 10.724 76.79% -0.874 1.2837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 35 82.86% 48.31 8.867 57.14% -1.123 0.6909
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 125 56.8% 54.94 11.672 60.0% -1.543 0.5535
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 57 49.12% 20.16 -4.759 73.68% -0.644 -0.5587
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 49 28.57% 28.02 -1.133 91.84% 0.342 0.3748
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 90 32.58% 32.36 0.585 85.56% -0.384 -0.1492
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 111 42.34% 41.71 5.157 88.29% 0.036 0.3228
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 75 44.0% 40.71 4.698 74.67% -0.758 0.024
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 60.87% 43.57 5.747 73.91% -0.809 0.3561
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 85 63.53% 48.41 8.461 75.29% -0.71 0.4142
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 33.33% 24.29 -3.386 91.67% -0.001 -0.1042
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 17 58.82% 30.59 0.466 82.35% 0.111 0.8882
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 18 50.0% 38.56 3.638 88.89% 0.018 0.4353
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 24 79.17% 41.08 4.887 70.83% -0.473 0.785
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 50.0% 47.43 8.034 78.57% -0.444 0.6711
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 100.0% 38.85 4.275 38.46% -1.48 0.5173
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 37 83.78% 54.08 11.187 56.76% -1.617 0.2621

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 29 28.57% 28.66 -2.197 72.41% -0.89 -0.3216
Dahan Insurrection 4 59 34.48% 51.8 10.304 76.27% -0.471 -0.0734
Elemental Invocation 1 15 7.14% 34.0 1.474 86.67% -0.399 0.0651
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 206 10.19% 40.77 2.585 76.21% -1.23 -0.8637
Powers Long Forgotten 1 18 55.56% 35.44 2.548 83.33% 0.228 0.6734
Rituals of Terror 3 19 47.37% 44.68 6.579 89.47% 0.616 1.2612
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 62.5% 33.38 0.893 75.0% -0.421 0.2235
Second Wave 0 349 41.83% 30.77 -0.824 81.95% -0.522 -0.0942
Ward the Shores 2 25 40.0% 29.32 -1.237 60.0% -1.499 -0.4655

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 131 33.27 -1.543 67.18% -2.114 -0.0409
Aid From Lesser Spirits 142 36.77 -0.082 71.13% -1.904 0.0155
All Things Weaken 95 33.32 -1.588 63.16% -2.248 -0.0772
Back Against the Wall 161 38.04 0.218 67.08% -1.973 0.118
Disintegrating Ecosystem 114 33.32 -2.071 59.65% -2.336 -0.1101
Downward Spiral 219 28.95 -2.58 63.47% -2.023 -0.0006
Erosion of Will 117 33.03 -1.868 60.68% -2.248 -0.0384
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 51 36.22 0.043 94.12% -0.352 0.3348
Memory Fades to Dust 222 24.99 -3.646 53.6% -2.338 -0.1189
Power Corrodes the Spirit 92 32.53 -1.594 68.48% -2.052 -0.0289
Promising Farmlands 123 30.5 -2.805 62.6% -2.28 -0.0664
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 44.2 3.172 100.0% 0.872 1.2824
Thriving Communities 103 34.17 -1.908 65.05% -2.223 -0.1281
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.66 62.86% -1.664 0.5627
Unnatural Proliferation 110 36.86 -0.508 65.45% -2.114 -0.0276
Untended Land Crumbles 82 33.15 -1.724 64.63% -2.171 -0.0643

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2284 42.05% 32.43 -0.447 78.9% -0.191 -0.9747
B 2401 39.82% 32.14 -0.549 79.84% -0.168 -1.0479
C 2455 40.93% 33.39 0.299 80.45% -0.035 -1.147
D 2213 41.44% 32.52 -0.556 80.75% -0.103 -0.9765
E 1177 44.1% 36.1 0.563 85.3% -0.066 -1.054
F 1211 42.34% 35.38 0.351 84.23% -0.043 -0.9803
G 993 41.54% 34.68 -0.031 84.09% -0.169 -1.0962
H 1027 43.0% 36.2 0.809 85.1% 0.081 -0.8558
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.846 100.0% 0.243 -0.4296
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.527 100.0% 0.221 -0.4025
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.835 100.0% 0.022 -0.707
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.835 100.0% 0.022 -0.2734
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.527 100.0% 0.221 -0.2

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 175 0.0% 14.72 -5.68 53.14% -2.376 -0.3194
Not Using Events or Tokens 457 40.37% 19.95 -4.255 66.52% -0.492 -0.276
Skip Initial Invader Actions 175 26.15% 29.82 0.164 84.0% 0.439 -0.2492
Start of Game Growth 260 25.46% 29.83 -0.462 84.62% -0.088 -0.5572
Unlimited Undo 624 33.1% 38.53 2.472 85.74% 0.399 -0.0214
Using Tokens but Not Events 506 27.11% 27.33 -2.571 84.19% -0.036 -0.0884

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 360 22.35 13.61%
II 1525 30.84 76.0%
III 1819 34.35 90.71%
IV 885 37.52 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1439
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 979
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 796
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 175
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 60
Lose: Blight pool ran out 545
Lose: Spirit destroyed 41

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)