Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 32 33.33% 25.94 71.88% 0.15 0.6072 -0.28
Dahan Insurrection 4 54 35.85% 53.11 77.78% 0.072 0.092 -0.81
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 24 30.43% 30.5 79.17% 0.112 0.8111 0.134
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 258 10.47% 39.55 79.84% -0.158 -0.117 -0.113
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.493
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.11
Second Wave 0 585 37.26% 29.39 85.47% 0.584 1.0455 -0.711
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.024 0.8523 0.261
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.641

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 164 33.88 67.07% -0.461 1.27 -0.622
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.176 0.3992 -0.402
All Things Weaken 129 31.53 62.79% -0.162 1.7161 -1.299
Back Against the Wall 206 36.01 63.11% -0.242 1.3943 -0.973
Disintegrating Ecosystem 141 32.83 60.99% 0.221 2.0643 -0.702
Downward Spiral 277 28.73 63.9% 0.643 2.341 -0.698
Erosion of Will 143 32.07 58.04% 0.302 2.2022 -0.422
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.654 -0.1536 -0.074
Memory Fades to Dust 273 24.47 55.68% -0.525 1.3507 -0.093
Power Corrodes the Spirit 131 30.87 64.89% -0.962 0.7426 -0.982
Promising Farmlands 162 29.3 58.64% -1.411 0.4644 -1.346
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 43.0 100.0% 0.035 1.1911
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.04 100.0% 0.168 0.3779 0.574
Thriving Communities 140 32.03 65.0% -0.138 1.7324 -1.35
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.444
Unnatural Proliferation 143 36.62 62.94% -0.513 1.2415 -1.03
Untended Land Crumbles 112 31.04 64.29% -0.639 1.175 -0.929

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2990 40.67% 31.74 79.73% 0.107 0.8843 -0.276
B 3153 38.89% 31.52 80.21% 0.068 0.771 -0.316
C 3235 39.28% 32.68 80.8% 0.082 0.6092 0.29
D 2834 39.73% 31.84 81.55% -0.283 0.4514 -0.295
E 1737 39.56% 34.12 85.32% 0.507 1.0907 0.113
F 1607 41.32% 34.14 84.26% 0.283 0.9905 0.16
G 1376 40.51% 33.26 83.79% -0.17 0.4715 0.063
H 1393 40.96% 34.22 84.28% -0.564 0.0808 0.283
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 231 0.0% 16.23 59.74% -0.995 1.0803
Not Using Events or Tokens 593 40.51% 20.43 69.81% 0.305 0.4768 0.477
Skip Initial Invader Actions 266 19.07% 31.0 88.35% -0.207 -1.266 0.653
Start of Game Growth 341 26.28% 31.12 86.51% -0.471 -0.8936 0.821
Unlimited Undo 845 30.94% 36.62 87.57% 0.076 -0.3398 0.897
Using Tokens but Not Events 743 23.33% 27.32 86.81% 0.454 0.5697 -0.955

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 504 22.63 18.65%
II 2170 31.12 78.2%
III 2350 34.7 90.55%
IV 1109 37.97 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 94
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1638
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1102
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 225
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 72
Lose: Blight pool ran out 717
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)