Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.493 0.2375
Blitz 0 35 30.0% 24.77 71.43% 0.567 0.7639 -0.284
Dahan Insurrection 4 59 32.76% 51.85 76.27% 0.474 0.0311 -0.583
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 24 30.43% 30.5 79.17% 0.135
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 380 8.16% 27.66 56.05% -1.001 -1.6452 -0.205
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 38.0 76.47% -0.048 0.0533 0.455
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.129
Second Wave 0 667 37.63% 28.48 84.56% 0.89 0.9561 -0.515
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 38.5 100.0% 0.204 0.8272 0.377
Ward the Shores 2 40 20.51% 16.52 35.0% -1.318 -0.2334 -0.605

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 168 33.51 66.67% 0.552 0.7941 -0.578
Aid From Lesser Spirits 183 35.66 69.4% 0.061 -0.0163 -0.584
All Things Weaken 140 32.15 62.86% -0.225 0.1677 -1.324
Attenuated Essence 5 39.2 60.0% -0.19 -0.0829 0.225
Back Against the Wall 210 36.12 63.81% 1.393 1.4504 -0.979
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 22.0 33.33% -0.414 -0.2125 -0.281
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 14.0 42.86% -1.137 -0.9263
Disintegrating Ecosystem 150 32.21 60.0% -0.362 0.062 -0.644
Downward Spiral 290 28.27 62.07% -0.902 -0.6664 -0.823
Erosion of Will 149 32.21 57.72% -0.47 -0.1604 -0.403
Intensifying Exploitation 2 43.5 100.0% 0.564 0.8516 0.334
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 36.88 90.77% -0.08 -0.5736 -0.082
Memory Fades to Dust 290 24.1 54.14% -0.072 0.2645 -0.227
Power Corrodes the Spirit 138 30.25 64.49% 0.001 0.2212 -1.148
Promising Farmlands 163 29.24 58.9% -0.185 0.268 -1.389
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 27.67 100.0% 0.487 0.5383
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 25.4 60.0% 0.499 0.8979 0.254
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 41.82 98.0% 0.095 -0.6162 0.591
Thriving Communities 144 31.58 64.58% 0.548 0.9114 -1.287
Thriving Crops 3 15.67 33.33% -0.448 -0.6453 0.062
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.52
Unnatural Proliferation 148 35.89 62.16% -0.824 -0.6087 -1.038
Untended Land Crumbles 115 30.89 63.48% -0.853 -0.5715 -0.94

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3192 39.61% 30.81 77.91% -0.123 0.617 -0.252
B 3468 37.02% 29.59 75.63% -0.64 0.0862 -0.375
C 3562 37.2% 30.81 76.47% 0.282 0.8645 0.268
D 3006 39.07% 31.32 80.14% 0.438 1.1496 -0.292
E 2015 36.51% 31.08 77.52% 0.052 0.6173 0.125
F 1710 40.89% 33.31 82.16% -0.458 0.2122 0.082
G 1466 40.28% 32.54 82.26% 0.35 1.0017 0.124
H 1495 40.56% 33.38 82.61% 0.123 0.693 0.338
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 251 0.0% 16.1 59.76% 0.437 1.2134
Not Using Events or Tokens 642 40.17% 20.04 67.76% -1.005 -0.6257 0.467
Skip Initial Invader Actions 291 17.81% 29.15 82.47% -1.509 -2.1271 0.714
Start of Game Growth 404 26.43% 29.23 78.71% -0.489 -0.8376 0.86
Unlimited Undo 907 29.88% 35.21 84.79% 0.066 0.0595 0.854
Using Tokens but Not Events 926 19.91% 22.96 73.22% -0.632 -0.6424 -0.954

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 766 20.4 12.66%
II 2295 31.01 77.56%
III 2452 34.76 90.5%
IV 1157 38.07 99.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 97
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2197
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1718
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1149
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 246
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 244
Win: Sacrifice victory 13
Lose: Scenario condition 79
Win: Scenario condition 75
Lose: Blight pool ran out 746
Lose: Spirit destroyed 59

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)