Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 48 35.42% 29.33 -4.779 87.5% -0.659 -0.2156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 40.0% 32.2 5.25 87.5% 0.285 0.5745
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 59 55.93% 38.05 3.924 77.97% -0.081 1.1016
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 58.0% 43.54 2.671 88.0% -0.327 1.0965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 36 75.0% 46.19 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 75.0% 53.44 81.25%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 56 85.71% 46.18 9.033 53.57% -0.333 1.9916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 135 34.85% 24.37 -3.568 85.19% 0.371 0.2657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 127 36.59% 29.51 1.549 87.4% 0.33 0.009
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 270 42.59% 40.97 3.582 93.7% -0.103 0.074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 246 36.73% 46.21 8.579 90.24% 0.1 0.4631
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 115 53.04% 46.92 2.984 82.61% -0.581 -0.2714
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 40 72.5% 52.63 8.47 72.5% -0.351 0.6164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 83 79.52% 45.48 6.593 53.01% -0.72 0.7582
The Kingdom of England 0 1 108 30.48% 23.46 -1.566 80.56% 0.077 0.5472
The Kingdom of England 1 3 81 33.75% 34.53 0.759 87.65% 0.262 0.8876
The Kingdom of England 2 4 104 48.08% 34.98 -2.612 75.96% -1.191 -0.0613
The Kingdom of England 3 6 114 46.9% 40.91 2.219 71.05% -0.183 1.4564
The Kingdom of England 4 7 146 57.24% 43.73 6.626 69.18% -0.313 1.1483
The Kingdom of England 5 9 50 76.0% 51.78 12.848 72.0% 0.182 2.2726
The Kingdom of England 6 11 277 62.45% 52.17 9.86 60.65% -0.695 1.7859
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 40.0% 30.07 3.969 91.67% 0.188 0.8115
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 57 47.37% 33.54 0.503 85.96% 0.143 1.2564
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 70 41.43% 37.23 0.836 67.14% -0.318 1.6793
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 90 44.44% 48.61 4.458 76.67% -0.286 1.8389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 60 45.0% 51.6 13.868 73.33% 0.216 2.3851
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 50 84.0% 49.6 27.941 52.0% 0.201 2.1646
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 149 59.06% 55.79 16.742 61.07% 0.26 2.4286
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 60.0% 29.8 0.31 80.0% -0.439 -0.6773
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 25.0 3.735 50.0% 0.091 0.9867
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 23.0 -0.837 0.0% -0.27 0.9458
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 80.0% 50.8 8.135 60.0% 0.155 0.9937
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 53.0 8.778 100.0% 0.365 1.5232
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 56.5 7.105 100.0% -0.637 0.6954
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 46.15% 62.23 15.592 84.62% 0.07 1.6898
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 72 41.67% 21.31 -3.746 77.78% 0.275 0.4504
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 66 30.3% 28.11 -9.207 89.39% -1.079 -0.9177
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 107 32.38% 32.27 13.248 85.05% 0.073 0.302
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 126 42.86% 41.69 -0.295 87.3% -0.352 0.0182
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 47.83% 40.84 5.739 75.0% 0.289 1.3276
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 30 66.67% 41.47 4.042 66.67% 0.19 1.299
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 111 66.67% 47.38 10.614 72.97% 0.253 1.443
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 32 31.25% 24.59 1.609 93.75% 0.115 -0.3395
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 20 60.0% 32.25 -1.514 85.0% 0.103 0.8106
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 28 50.0% 37.32 5.71 82.14% 0.244 0.6829
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 76.47% 42.82 8.304 70.59% 0.188 1.4129
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 50.0% 48.13 8.236 81.25% 0.011 1.0881
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 88.89% 46.94 27.941 38.89% 0.201 2.1669
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 48 75.0% 53.85 11.858 52.08% -0.41 1.5573

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 32 33.33% 25.94 71.88% 0.178 0.677 -0.282
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% -0.827
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 23 31.82% 30.52 78.26% -0.409 0.2001 0.132
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 258 10.47% 39.55 79.84% -0.842 -0.6184 -0.126
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.492
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.108
Second Wave 0 569 37.79% 29.47 85.59% 0.158 0.7485 -0.589
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.654

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 163 33.96 66.87% 0.651 2.6443 -0.662
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.038 0.7373 -0.324
All Things Weaken 126 31.87 62.7% -0.799 1.2609 -1.323
Back Against the Wall 205 35.89 62.93% -0.021 1.9138 -0.981
Disintegrating Ecosystem 140 32.76 60.71% 0.053 2.133 -0.709
Downward Spiral 276 28.76 63.77% -0.654 1.2705 -0.707
Erosion of Will 143 32.07 58.04% -0.466 1.6247 -0.426
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.809 -0.3084 -0.087
Memory Fades to Dust 272 24.53 55.88% -0.789 1.3218 -0.147
Power Corrodes the Spirit 131 30.87 64.89% -0.793 1.1543 -0.903
Promising Farmlands 161 29.35 59.01% -1.728 0.2818 -1.347
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 42.94 100.0% 0.117 0.5862 0.579
Thriving Communities 139 31.94 64.75% -0.397 1.6686 -1.355
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.448
Unnatural Proliferation 143 36.62 62.94% -0.646 1.2959 -1.043
Untended Land Crumbles 109 31.04 64.22% -0.744 1.2936 -0.936

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2962 40.89% 31.77 79.68% 0.114 0.8055 -0.245
B 3131 38.92% 31.57 80.29% -0.088 0.576 -0.306
C 3200 39.5% 32.77 80.84% 0.349 0.785 0.287
D 2809 39.87% 31.91 81.56% -0.107 0.5692 -0.283
E 1714 39.8% 34.16 85.18% 0.302 0.7941 0.084
F 1589 41.54% 34.21 84.33% 0.041 0.6854 0.152
G 1357 40.56% 33.31 83.86% -0.241 0.3329 0.051
H 1377 41.15% 34.38 84.53% -0.345 0.2765 0.282
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 230 0.0% 16.2 59.57% -0.611 1.5813
Not Using Events or Tokens 586 41.18% 20.46 69.62% 0.305 0.5485 0.492
Skip Initial Invader Actions 263 19.27% 31.16 88.59% -0.184 -1.2187 0.645
Start of Game Growth 334 26.22% 31.14 86.83% -0.271 -0.7899 0.815
Unlimited Undo 841 30.93% 36.67 87.63% 0.015 -0.4983 0.898
Using Tokens but Not Events 737 23.5% 27.33 86.7% 0.318 0.4848 -0.96

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 496 22.67 18.75%
II 2147 31.1 78.16%
III 2323 34.68 90.53%
IV 1104 37.93 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 93
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2082
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1620
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1097
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46
Lose: Adversary condition 222
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 713
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)