Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 31 35.48% 28.23 -1.572 87.1% -0.069 0.2143
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 24 37.5% 32.17 0.412 91.67% 0.207 0.6017
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 42 54.76% 38.38 3.387 78.57% -0.599 0.2616
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 37 59.46% 43.0 5.875 86.49% -0.284 0.9657
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 28 78.57% 44.29 6.836 71.43% -0.639 0.8952
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 72.73% 53.27 11.199 81.82% 0.015 2.0835
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 37 83.78% 43.73 7.189 51.35% -1.263 0.8142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 84 32.1% 24.3 -2.748 83.33% -0.131 -0.0883
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 85 39.51% 28.48 -0.486 84.71% 0.115 0.0888
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 202 45.05% 40.4 4.93 94.55% 1.109 1.1092
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 137 41.91% 46.04 7.674 91.97% 0.596 0.8885
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 78 56.41% 46.46 7.905 83.33% -0.033 0.337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 68.0% 54.2 12.013 76.0% -0.312 0.5264
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 58 79.31% 45.07 7.495 51.72% -1.581 -0.3329
The Kingdom of England 0 1 73 29.58% 22.58 -3.177 80.82% -0.376 -0.0457
The Kingdom of England 1 3 58 36.84% 32.98 1.327 82.76% -0.413 0.0762
The Kingdom of England 2 4 64 40.63% 36.5 2.852 82.81% -0.445 0.5194
The Kingdom of England 3 6 74 50.0% 39.8 4.088 67.57% -1.401 0.1792
The Kingdom of England 4 7 86 54.12% 43.85 6.442 69.77% -1.114 0.4
The Kingdom of England 5 9 33 66.67% 51.09 9.333 69.7% -0.976 1.0949
The Kingdom of England 6 11 198 62.12% 52.45 9.983 62.63% -1.723 0.5342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 46 41.3% 29.59 -0.786 89.13% 0.202 0.7278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 48 43.75% 33.65 2.08 87.5% 0.216 1.104
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 47 36.17% 38.87 3.881 70.21% -1.206 0.9213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 45 66.67% 46.02 7.997 71.11% -0.524 1.6602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 50 44.0% 52.66 10.745 76.0% -0.847 1.3039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 31 83.87% 47.52 8.597 54.84% -1.12 0.7066
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 110 56.36% 54.15 11.388 58.18% -1.528 0.6001
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 48 45.83% 20.58 -4.187 75.0% -0.351 -0.2624
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 42 30.95% 27.57 -1.011 90.48% 0.365 0.3757
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 70 27.54% 32.43 0.684 84.29% -0.383 -0.1638
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 83 46.99% 41.65 5.33 89.16% 0.233 0.5164
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 56 44.64% 38.66 3.933 69.64% -0.807 -0.0368
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 55.0% 45.6 6.788 80.0% -0.536 0.631
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 75 60.0% 49.03 8.818 77.33% -0.542 0.5893
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 21 28.57% 24.48 -3.2 90.48% -0.049 -0.1715
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 71.43% 29.07 0.011 78.57% 0.069 0.7843
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 15 53.33% 37.87 3.165 86.67% -0.087 0.3511
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 82.35% 44.0 5.852 76.47% -0.141 1.1177
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 60.0% 47.5 8.296 80.0% -0.132 1.0084
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 100.0% 42.27 5.525 45.45% -1.186 0.8744
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 25 80.0% 51.8 10.06 52.0% -1.66 0.2757

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 25 33.33% 27.8 -2.207 76.0% -0.54 0.0367
Dahan Insurrection 4 50 38.78% 50.8 10.015 74.0% -0.442 -0.041
Elemental Invocation 1 5 0.0% 35.0 2.49 80.0% -0.37 0.0106
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 180 9.44% 40.91 2.784 73.89% -1.209 -0.8431
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 50.0% 35.56 2.889 87.5% 0.433 0.8742
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 45.0 6.768 88.24% 0.416 1.0439
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 83.33% 31.67 -0.084 66.67% -0.424 0.2261
Second Wave 0 295 44.75% 30.38 -0.899 80.68% -0.551 -0.1353
Ward the Shores 2 23 43.48% 29.74 -0.894 60.87% -1.296 -0.2599

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 108 33.76 -1.087 67.59% -1.954 0.116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 117 35.53 -0.405 70.09% -1.827 0.0913
All Things Weaken 74 31.95 -1.756 63.51% -2.04 0.1144
Back Against the Wall 130 37.47 0.133 66.15% -1.889 0.2068
Disintegrating Ecosystem 93 31.86 -2.432 59.14% -2.213 0.0104
Downward Spiral 190 28.39 -2.608 61.05% -1.997 0.02
Erosion of Will 98 32.33 -1.978 60.2% -2.18 0.0298
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 37.38 0.566 92.5% -0.403 0.3012
Memory Fades to Dust 193 24.1 -3.751 50.78% -2.31 -0.0951
Power Corrodes the Spirit 67 33.15 -1.198 68.66% -1.815 0.2055
Promising Farmlands 108 30.31 -2.635 62.04% -2.204 0.0086
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 43.9 3.248 100.0% 0.8 1.2355
Thriving Communities 85 34.2 -1.768 63.53% -2.146 -0.048
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.448 62.86% -1.615 0.6033
Unnatural Proliferation 90 35.5 -1.023 62.22% -2.201 -0.1239
Untended Land Crumbles 63 35.35 -0.638 69.84% -1.689 0.4092

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1867 44.07% 31.72 -0.446 77.24% -0.15 -1.2395
B 1963 41.64% 31.3 -0.774 77.84% -0.238 -1.4232
C 1999 42.93% 32.34 0.024 78.64% -0.058 -1.4727
D 1866 41.29% 32.37 -0.326 80.01% -0.077 -1.2536
E 835 48.31% 36.27 0.626 83.23% -0.156 -1.433
F 960 42.58% 35.19 0.435 83.33% -0.047 -1.2898
G 783 41.39% 35.14 0.271 84.16% -0.12 -1.3508
H 815 42.91% 36.09 0.807 85.15% 0.119 -1.1211
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.905 100.0% 0.254 -0.6966
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.615 100.0% 0.234 -0.6563
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.807 100.0% 0.021 -0.981
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.807 100.0% 0.021 -0.5877
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.615 100.0% 0.234 -0.4523

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 152 0.0% 14.25 -5.731 51.97% -2.254 -0.2097
Not Using Events or Tokens 408 41.08% 19.53 -4.287 64.95% -0.557 -0.338
Skip Initial Invader Actions 145 27.19% 30.35 0.353 84.14% 0.312 -0.3924
Start of Game Growth 226 25.51% 30.31 -0.289 85.4% 0.011 -0.4436
Unlimited Undo 429 38.17% 37.35 2.104 83.68% 0.373 -0.0393
Using Tokens but Not Events 401 32.5% 26.86 -2.556 81.55% -0.034 -0.0812

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 319 22.34 11.6%
II 1161 30.75 73.9%
III 1507 34.26 90.25%
IV 711 37.47 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 31
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1151
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 686
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 622
Lose: Invader deck ran out 35
Lose: Adversary condition 159
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 45
Win: Scenario condition 51
Lose: Blight pool ran out 460
Lose: Spirit destroyed 36

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)