Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 36.36% 22.09 72.73% 0.344 -0.2564
Blitz 0 50 37.78% 26.02 66.0% 0.139 0.6016 -0.227
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 33.33% 49.55 73.13% -0.901 -1.4045 -0.438
Despicable Theft 2 5 80.0% 18.2 60.0% -0.704 -0.0641
Elemental Invocation 1 33 46.88% 29.27 75.76% 0.524 1.3819 0.197
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 422 7.82% 26.95 55.45% 0.782 0.1052 0.076
Powers Long Forgotten 1 23 52.17% 31.22 73.91% 0.413 1.0039
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 41.04 65.38% 0.399
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 11 63.64% 36.45 81.82% -0.101
Second Wave 0 896 36.94% 26.96 82.25% 0.616 0.6934 -0.951
Varied Terrains 2 11 45.45% 45.18 81.82% 0.541
Ward the Shores 2 42 19.51% 16.83 35.71% 0.203 0.9804 -0.634

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 180 32.96 66.11% 0.315 0.5041 -0.178
Aid From Lesser Spirits 205 35.47 71.22% -0.189 -0.3043 -0.402
All Things Weaken 166 30.95 60.24% 0.352 0.5789 -0.751
Attenuated Essence 26 33.0 53.85% -0.679 -0.5904 -0.398
Back Against the Wall 233 34.92 62.66% -0.218 -0.2496 -0.677
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 20.22 38.89% -0.398 -0.2443 -0.539
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 21.75 56.25% -0.394 -0.2372 -0.221
Disintegrating Ecosystem 175 30.99 60.0% 0.579 0.9327 -0.637
Downward Spiral 338 26.48 59.76% -0.824 -0.6684 -0.51
Erosion of Will 177 30.35 55.37% -0.463 -0.2228 -0.319
Intensifying Exploitation 17 31.88 64.71% -0.463 -0.2188 -0.599
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 77 34.78 89.61% 0.064 -0.2513 0.226
Memory Fades to Dust 357 22.9 50.42% -1.406 -1.1217 -0.523
Power Corrodes the Spirit 163 29.06 62.58% -0.21 -0.0366 -0.709
Promising Farmlands 183 28.21 59.02% -0.281 0.1808 -1.086
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 27.54 53.85% -0.531 -0.3186 -0.66
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 21.95 35.0% -0.079 0.477 -0.934
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 55 39.65 96.36% 0.196 -0.352 0.662
The Border of Life and Death 3 8.0 0.0% -0.256 -0.525 -0.299
Thriving Communities 175 29.68 65.14% 0.119 0.483 -0.986
Thriving Crops 9 33.11 55.56% 0.623 0.4302 0.621
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.457
Unnatural Proliferation 178 33.98 61.8% -0.459 -0.249 -0.829
Untended Land Crumbles 139 28.71 57.55% 0.098 0.4011 -0.783

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4006 37.89% 27.99 72.24% -0.249 0.6916 -0.22
B 4444 34.61% 26.56 69.24% -0.092 0.7524 -0.229
C 4600 34.57% 27.47 70.09% 0.015 0.7403 0.133
D 3749 36.99% 28.53 74.07% -0.316 0.5472 -0.287
E 2716 32.34% 27.52 70.43% 0.489 1.193 0.15
F 2141 39.86% 30.53 76.69% 0.361 1.1552 0.16
G 1819 39.68% 30.65 77.95% -0.153 0.6662 0.12
H 1859 40.3% 31.02 78.54% -0.037 0.7345 0.195
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 339 0.0% 13.34 48.97% -0.622 0.1347 -0.614
Not Using Events or Tokens 881 38.57% 17.35 58.57% -0.642 -0.1773 -0.472
Skip Initial Invader Actions 370 15.36% 28.63 79.19% -0.311 -0.792 0.198
Start of Game Growth 505 23.74% 28.73 76.24% 0.056 -0.4863 0.525
Unlimited Undo 1113 27.55% 32.8 81.67% -0.456 -0.5524 0.641
Using Tokens but Not Events 1345 18.85% 19.52 62.68% 0.277 0.1454 -1.352

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1472 14.46 8.22%
II 2818 30.34 75.87%
III 2867 34.85 90.51%
IV 1333 38.6 99.55%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 121
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2572
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2073
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1321
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 885
Lose: Invader deck ran out 51
Lose: Adversary condition 307
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 82
Win: Scenario condition 80
Lose: Blight pool ran out 901
Lose: Spirit destroyed 83

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-13 04:00:02 (Pacific Time)