Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 31 33.33% 26.03 70.97% -0.746 -0.3025 -0.276
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% 0.089 0.1863 -0.81
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 23 31.82% 30.52 78.26% -0.396 0.1501 0.132
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 257 10.51% 39.61 80.16% -0.329 -0.0979 -0.138
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25% 0.045 0.4522
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.499
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.103
Second Wave 0 563 38.19% 29.48 85.44% 0.187 0.8799 -0.591
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.651

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 162 34.02 66.67% 0.58 2.5509 -0.644
Aid From Lesser Spirits 179 35.24 68.72% -1.233 0.5452 -0.315
All Things Weaken 125 31.7 62.4% -1.258 0.7905 -1.3
Back Against the Wall 205 35.89 62.93% -0.148 1.7909 -0.979
Disintegrating Ecosystem 140 32.76 60.71% 0.154 2.2821 -0.713
Downward Spiral 276 28.76 63.77% -1.135 0.8259 -0.733
Erosion of Will 143 32.07 58.04% -0.215 1.8668 -0.425
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 37.83 93.65% -0.914 -0.4121 -0.085
Memory Fades to Dust 271 24.49 55.72% -0.847 1.2939 -0.136
Power Corrodes the Spirit 129 31.07 65.12% -0.684 1.2963 -0.904
Promising Farmlands 159 29.45 59.75% -1.02 1.0012 -1.285
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 42.94 100.0% 0.216 0.7129 0.583
Thriving Communities 139 31.94 64.75% -0.807 1.2518 -1.344
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.45
Unnatural Proliferation 143 36.62 62.94% -0.725 1.2315 -0.979
Untended Land Crumbles 109 31.04 64.22% -0.736 1.2971 -0.923

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2953 40.97% 31.8 79.65% -0.078 0.6586 -0.267
B 3118 38.88% 31.59 80.28% -0.469 0.2286 -0.298
C 3188 39.56% 32.78 80.87% 0.646 1.1153 0.279
D 2797 39.93% 31.94 81.52% 0.035 0.7446 -0.264
E 1705 39.93% 34.19 85.16% -0.072 0.4726 0.066
F 1580 41.72% 34.24 84.24% 0.077 0.7385 0.159
G 1348 40.46% 33.34 83.9% -0.23 0.4005 0.065
H 1365 41.44% 34.44 84.54% 0.109 0.7734 0.28
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 229 0.0% 16.17 59.39% -0.783 1.4462
Not Using Events or Tokens 583 41.47% 20.41 69.47% 0.02 0.2471 0.506
Skip Initial Invader Actions 262 19.27% 31.19 88.55% 0.011 -0.9687 0.641
Start of Game Growth 333 26.22% 31.17 86.79% -0.136 -0.5932 0.816
Unlimited Undo 839 30.97% 36.7 87.6% 0.193 -0.3586 0.879
Using Tokens but Not Events 733 23.61% 27.34 86.63% -0.123 0.0321 -0.964

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 494 22.65 18.62%
II 2129 31.08 78.11%
III 2317 34.66 90.5%
IV 1102 37.91 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 92
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2076
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1605
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1095
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46
Lose: Adversary condition 220
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 64
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 712
Lose: Spirit destroyed 49

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)