Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.882 0.8162
Blitz 0 34 31.03% 24.85 70.59% -0.255 -0.0799 -0.267
Dahan Insurrection 4 54 35.85% 53.11 77.78% 0.146 -0.0248 -0.737
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 24 30.43% 30.5 79.17% 0.1 0.7822 0.144
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 277 10.11% 37.18 75.45% -0.941 -1.5633 -0.137
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 16 43.75% 40.38 81.25% -0.209 -0.2683 0.463
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.124
Second Wave 0 640 37.97% 28.74 85.0% 0.533 0.5999 -0.499
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.049 0.6011 0.271
Ward the Shores 2 38 21.62% 17.39 36.84% -1.267 -0.0571 -0.621

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 168 33.51 66.67% -0.514 -0.2168 -0.601
Aid From Lesser Spirits 182 35.75 69.23% -0.306 -0.2045 -0.556
All Things Weaken 138 32.0 63.04% 0.217 0.7142 -1.366
Attenuated Essence 2 56.5 100.0% 0.343 0.6721 0.261
Back Against the Wall 207 35.95 63.29% -0.112 0.1172 -1.009
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 22.0 33.33% -0.455 0.0723 -0.295
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 17.2 60.0% -0.329 0.0371
Disintegrating Ecosystem 147 32.66 60.54% -0.084 0.4989 -0.667
Downward Spiral 283 28.57 63.25% -0.604 -0.2219 -0.691
Erosion of Will 146 32.35 58.22% 0.46 0.9527 -0.411
Intensifying Exploitation 2 43.5 100.0% 0.917 1.3869 0.174
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 36.88 90.77% -0.414 -0.8841 -0.072
Memory Fades to Dust 280 24.23 55.36% -0.026 0.485 -0.095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 136 30.41 64.71% -0.494 -0.1499 -1.016
Promising Farmlands 162 29.3 58.64% -0.739 -0.1011 -1.385
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 33.0 100.0% 0.407 0.6784
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 16.5 50.0% -0.163 0.4336
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 41.82 98.0% 0.58 -0.1068 0.583
Thriving Communities 142 31.73 64.79% -0.624 -0.076 -1.329
Thriving Crops 2 11.0 50.0% -0.074 0.1393 0.077
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.461
Unnatural Proliferation 145 36.47 62.76% -0.595 -0.2416 -1.082
Untended Land Crumbles 114 31.02 64.04% -0.067 0.3355 -0.927

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3115 40.0% 31.04 78.43% -0.656 0.2004 -0.262
B 3298 38.3% 30.69 78.44% -0.755 0.0245 -0.396
C 3385 38.41% 31.92 79.23% 0.316 0.9713 0.246
D 2931 39.37% 31.53 80.86% 0.544 1.3524 -0.264
E 1863 38.77% 32.92 82.34% 0.318 0.9523 0.132
F 1674 40.99% 33.69 83.03% -0.183 0.541 0.174
G 1426 40.41% 32.78 82.75% 0.394 1.1457 0.083
H 1463 40.56% 33.73 83.32% 0.047 0.7133 0.308
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 246 0.0% 15.99 59.35% 0.127 1.0587
Not Using Events or Tokens 629 39.82% 20.06 68.68% -0.812 -0.5006 0.477
Skip Initial Invader Actions 275 18.23% 30.14 85.82% -1.063 -1.5872 0.685
Start of Game Growth 370 26.82% 30.37 82.97% -0.33 -0.6839 0.854
Unlimited Undo 874 30.51% 35.87 86.16% -0.314 -0.3481 0.842
Using Tokens but Not Events 807 22.1% 25.82 82.78% 0.019 -0.045 -0.989

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 615 21.2 15.61%
II 2240 31.05 77.68%
III 2414 34.73 90.56%
IV 1146 38.01 99.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 96
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2165
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1681
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1139
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 239
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 72
Lose: Blight pool ran out 734
Lose: Spirit destroyed 54

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)