Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 32 34.38% 28.44 -1.507 87.5% -0.07 0.2109
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 24 37.5% 32.17 0.514 91.67% 0.196 0.5864
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 44 56.82% 38.61 3.584 79.55% -0.481 0.3891
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 60.53% 43.05 5.983 86.84% -0.247 1.0096
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 77.42% 45.55 7.444 74.19% -0.554 0.9749
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 11 72.73% 53.27 11.275 81.82% 0.042 2.0679
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 38 84.21% 43.29 6.962 50.0% -1.335 0.735
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 91 31.82% 24.26 -2.797 83.52% -0.155 -0.1168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 85 39.51% 28.48 -0.426 84.71% 0.119 0.0881
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 211 44.08% 40.35 4.964 94.79% 1.116 1.121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 148 42.86% 45.44 7.364 89.86% 0.321 0.6127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 84 55.95% 46.32 7.921 83.33% -0.052 0.3087
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 26 69.23% 53.31 11.558 73.08% -0.489 0.3397
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 61 80.33% 45.21 7.624 52.46% -1.49 -0.2452
The Kingdom of England 0 1 77 28.0% 22.87 -3.018 81.82% -0.341 -0.0094
The Kingdom of England 1 3 63 35.48% 33.59 1.675 84.13% -0.336 0.1647
The Kingdom of England 2 4 69 40.58% 36.46 2.85 82.61% -0.492 0.4771
The Kingdom of England 3 6 86 47.67% 40.26 4.32 68.6% -1.467 0.112
The Kingdom of England 4 7 93 55.43% 44.45 6.739 72.04% -1.051 0.4505
The Kingdom of England 5 9 33 66.67% 51.09 9.379 69.7% -0.97 1.1001
The Kingdom of England 6 11 210 62.38% 52.43 10.064 62.86% -1.688 0.5636
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 47 40.43% 29.62 -0.729 89.36% 0.211 0.7364
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 33.57 2.079 87.76% 0.257 1.1499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 50 38.0% 38.5 3.71 70.0% -1.244 0.8855
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 52 57.69% 47.94 8.65 75.0% -0.477 1.71
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 50 44.0% 52.66 10.821 76.0% -0.841 1.3014
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 32 81.25% 48.25 8.956 56.25% -1.084 0.7393
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 111 55.86% 54.32 11.518 58.56% -1.499 0.617
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 50 48.0% 20.42 -4.298 74.0% -0.436 -0.3473
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 44 29.55% 27.64 -1.018 90.91% 0.351 0.371
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 79 30.77% 32.25 0.652 83.54% -0.474 -0.2514
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 92 42.39% 41.97 5.542 89.13% 0.191 0.4767
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 64 46.88% 39.16 4.242 70.31% -0.804 -0.0361
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 57.14% 46.0 7.13 80.95% -0.411 0.7497
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 78 61.54% 48.31 8.549 75.64% -0.629 0.5035
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 21 28.57% 24.48 -3.171 90.48% -0.062 -0.1818
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 71.43% 29.07 0.063 78.57% 0.087 0.8057
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 17 47.06% 38.88 3.735 88.24% -0.053 0.3887
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 83.33% 42.28 5.269 72.22% -0.35 0.901
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 58.33% 48.83 8.936 83.33% -0.035 1.0891
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 100.0% 42.27 5.658 45.45% -1.163 0.8839
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 28 78.57% 54.11 11.249 57.14% -1.549 0.3853

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 27 30.77% 28.67 -1.903 77.78% -0.521 0.06
Dahan Insurrection 4 51 38.0% 50.71 10.002 74.51% -0.428 -0.0244
Elemental Invocation 1 9 12.5% 32.56 1.598 77.78% -0.587 -0.2143
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 186 10.22% 41.03 2.86 74.19% -1.193 -0.8281
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 52.94% 34.12 2.26 82.35% 0.178 0.6191
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 45.0 6.734 88.24% 0.397 1.0311
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 6 83.33% 31.67 -0.012 66.67% -0.42 0.2211
Second Wave 0 315 43.49% 30.64 -0.727 81.59% -0.485 -0.0614
Ward the Shores 2 24 41.67% 29.38 -1.113 58.33% -1.518 -0.4764

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 113 33.64 -1.197 67.26% -2.011 0.06
Aid From Lesser Spirits 125 35.78 -0.333 70.4% -1.871 0.0506
All Things Weaken 79 32.24 -1.67 64.56% -2.081 0.0726
Back Against the Wall 136 37.26 0.056 66.18% -1.911 0.1853
Disintegrating Ecosystem 97 32.63 -2.076 60.82% -2.177 0.0488
Downward Spiral 200 28.05 -2.765 61.0% -2.057 -0.0385
Erosion of Will 107 31.51 -2.315 59.81% -2.254 -0.0434
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 37.81 0.794 92.86% -0.405 0.2888
Memory Fades to Dust 201 24.51 -3.629 51.74% -2.325 -0.1095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 76 33.41 -1.018 68.42% -1.881 0.1355
Promising Farmlands 110 30.37 -2.624 61.82% -2.22 -0.0067
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 33 41.39 2.268 100.0% 0.793 1.2236
Thriving Communities 89 33.61 -2.031 62.92% -2.205 -0.1089
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.447 62.86% -1.626 0.5953
Unnatural Proliferation 96 36.0 -0.775 63.54% -2.19 -0.1032
Untended Land Crumbles 71 33.8 -1.315 66.2% -1.973 0.1236

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1990 43.5% 31.62 -0.56 77.49% -0.188 -1.2893
B 2093 40.97% 31.42 -0.669 78.36% -0.216 -1.4118
C 2124 42.69% 32.45 0.095 78.95% -0.054 -1.483
D 1993 40.82% 32.27 -0.395 80.33% -0.08 -1.271
E 937 45.92% 36.18 0.692 84.2% -0.12 -1.4187
F 1030 42.31% 35.04 0.355 83.79% -0.045 -1.2988
G 848 40.74% 34.87 0.179 84.2% -0.153 -1.395
H 880 42.69% 36.17 0.902 85.57% 0.156 -1.1017
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.864 100.0% 0.245 -0.7148
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.479 100.0% 0.224 -0.677
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.752 100.0% 0.021 -0.9833
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.752 100.0% 0.021 -0.5787
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.479 100.0% 0.224 -0.4755

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 161 0.0% 14.35 -5.674 52.17% -2.309 -0.2607
Not Using Events or Tokens 425 40.72% 19.7 -4.172 65.65% -0.481 -0.2601
Skip Initial Invader Actions 155 26.89% 29.94 0.272 84.52% 0.427 -0.278
Start of Game Growth 235 25.5% 30.05 -0.281 85.53% 0.023 -0.429
Unlimited Undo 472 37.67% 37.41 2.17 83.69% 0.306 -0.111
Using Tokens but Not Events 424 31.5% 26.88 -2.533 81.84% -0.049 -0.1003

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 331 22.33 12.39%
II 1272 30.75 74.69%
III 1597 34.25 90.17%
IV 767 37.47 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 35
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 777
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 678
Lose: Invader deck ran out 38
Lose: Adversary condition 162
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 46
Win: Scenario condition 52
Lose: Blight pool ran out 488
Lose: Spirit destroyed 38

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)