Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 44 34.09% 29.7 2.541 88.64% 0.136 0.7034
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 40.0% 32.2 0.668 87.5% -0.51 0.1788
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 59 55.93% 38.05 -1.941 77.97% -0.597 0.4496
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 47 57.45% 43.98 0.483 89.36% -0.527 0.8614
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 36 75.0% 46.19 10.211 75.0% 0.171 1.8747
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 75.0% 53.44 81.25%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 55 87.27% 45.55 11.491 52.73% -0.107 2.0845
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 132 34.11% 24.43 -0.5 85.61% 0.444 0.7323
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 126 36.89% 29.48 1.372 87.3% 0.609 0.3919
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 266 42.48% 41.09 5.849 93.98% 0.018 0.231
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 237 36.86% 46.14 4.835 90.3% -0.449 0.0482
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 114 52.63% 47.14 7.24 83.33% -0.185 0.3521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 39 71.79% 52.62 71.79%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 81 79.01% 45.99 6.933 54.32% -1.068 0.5045
The Kingdom of England 0 1 107 30.77% 23.47 -2.162 80.37% 0.486 0.901
The Kingdom of England 1 3 81 33.75% 34.53 2.108 87.65% 0.106 0.8194
The Kingdom of England 2 4 98 45.92% 35.72 3.987 79.59% 0.133 1.1621
The Kingdom of England 3 6 111 47.27% 41.01 11.891 71.17% 0.064 1.7224
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 56.34% 43.97 8.816 69.93% 0.216 1.8339
The Kingdom of England 5 9 50 76.0% 51.78 11.395 72.0% 0.053 2.108
The Kingdom of England 6 11 277 62.45% 52.17 15.376 60.65% -0.201 2.2041
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 40.0% 30.07 0.547 91.67% 0.089 0.8916
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 56 48.21% 33.68 -0.299 85.71% 0.198 1.0703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 66 39.39% 37.77 5.461 68.18% -0.062 2.2084
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 88 44.32% 49.25 0.074 78.41% -0.655 1.6773
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 60 45.0% 51.6 15.518 73.33% 0.132 2.5387
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 48 87.5% 46.21 18.648 50.0% 0.296 2.1588
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 149 59.06% 55.79 13.432 61.07% -0.773 1.5417
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 50.0% 33.0 -5.423 100.0% -0.46 -0.6116
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 25.0 0.565 50.0% -0.133 0.7529
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 80.0% 50.8 5.777 60.0% -0.247 0.4716
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 53.0 8.291 100.0% 0.125 1.4176
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 56.5 11.503 100.0% 0.229 1.6245
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 10 30.0% 69.2 13.644 100.0% -0.032 1.6074
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 72 41.67% 21.31 -3.79 77.78% 0.109 0.2415
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 64 28.13% 28.72 0.771 92.19% 0.39 0.3504
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 106 31.73% 32.27 -2.609 84.91% -0.645 -0.1656
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 124 42.74% 41.85 11.529 87.9% 0.204 0.4768
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 90 48.89% 40.69 5.079 74.44% -0.161 0.6771
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 30 66.67% 41.47 11.729 66.67% 0.341 1.2144
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 111 66.67% 47.38 10.118 72.97% 0.128 1.3472
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 31 29.03% 24.58 -3.075 93.55% 0.277 0.1427
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 19 57.89% 32.47 84.21%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 25 52.0% 38.08 3.411 84.0% 0.101 0.5785
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 31 74.19% 41.97 7.484 67.74% -0.309 0.869
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 53.33% 47.8 10.542 80.0% 0.139 1.4749
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 100.0% 36.44 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 48 75.0% 53.85 17.341 52.08% -0.14 1.7702

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 30 30.77% 26.73 73.33% 0.123 0.39 -0.298
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 34.62% 53.3 77.36% 0.081 0.4141 -0.804
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 21 25.0% 32.62 85.71% 0.133 0.7817 0.147
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 253 10.67% 39.0 80.24% 0.404 0.5695 -0.15
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 43.07 86.67% 0.429
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.133
Second Wave 0 516 37.79% 29.81 85.27% -0.216 0.2551 -0.818
Ward the Shores 2 23 31.82% 28.74 60.87% -0.619

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 162 34.02 66.67% -1.133 0.6988 -0.777
Aid From Lesser Spirits 173 35.97 69.94% -0.464 1.1904 -0.331
All Things Weaken 119 32.47 63.03% -0.66 1.3166 -1.25
Back Against the Wall 202 35.82 62.87% -1.316 0.543 -1.059
Disintegrating Ecosystem 138 32.72 60.14% -0.253 1.7214 -0.63
Downward Spiral 264 28.96 64.02% -1.75 0.1523 -0.57
Erosion of Will 140 32.23 58.57% -0.431 1.6126 -0.422
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 62 37.76 93.55% 0.18 0.7521 0.225
Memory Fades to Dust 259 24.78 55.6% -0.069 1.9106 -0.053
Power Corrodes the Spirit 124 31.69 65.32% -1.191 0.7011 -0.81
Promising Farmlands 152 29.76 59.21% -1.248 0.7911 -1.1
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.3 100.0% 0.217 0.6582 0.605
Thriving Communities 135 32.38 65.19% -0.997 0.9671 -1.311
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.427
Unnatural Proliferation 138 36.83 63.04% -1.033 0.8729 -0.999
Untended Land Crumbles 105 31.31 63.81% -0.42 1.6143 -0.892

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2856 41.09% 31.91 79.66% -0.028 0.7403 -0.334
B 3017 38.9% 31.73 80.25% -0.01 0.6825 -0.295
C 3092 39.51% 32.9 80.66% -0.279 0.2856 0.346
D 2712 40.13% 32.12 81.34% -0.444 0.3245 -0.244
E 1645 40.15% 34.48 85.17% 0.237 0.8367 0.079
F 1535 41.48% 34.57 84.5% 0.336 1.0455 0.181
G 1315 40.46% 33.54 84.11% -0.119 0.6069 0.048
H 1307 41.49% 34.93 84.7% 0.33 1.0202 0.237
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 219 0.0% 16.11 58.9% 0.03 2.041
Not Using Events or Tokens 558 40.39% 20.51 69.18% -0.429 -0.2149 0.463
Skip Initial Invader Actions 257 19.58% 30.23 88.33% 0.044 -0.05 0.404
Start of Game Growth 330 26.52% 30.41 86.67% 0.46 -0.2475 0.618
Unlimited Undo 820 30.83% 37.04 87.56% 0.002 -0.6972 0.932
Using Tokens but Not Events 712 23.57% 27.36 86.52% 0.17 0.1244 -0.874

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 473 22.6 18.18%
II 2051 31.02 77.91%
III 2245 34.59 90.47%
IV 1078 37.83 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 86
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2010
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1540
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1071
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46
Lose: Adversary condition 216
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 63
Win: Scenario condition 71
Lose: Blight pool ran out 685
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)