Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.564 0.28
Blitz 0 34 31.03% 24.85 70.59% 0.569 0.7289 -0.283
Dahan Insurrection 4 57 33.93% 52.53 77.19% 0.714 0.3342 -0.62
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 26.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 24 30.43% 30.5 79.17% 0.132
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 376 8.24% 27.88 56.65% -0.916 -1.5475 -0.051
Powers Long Forgotten 1 16 56.25% 35.5 81.25%
Rituals of Terror 3 17 41.18% 38.0 76.47% -0.046 0.114 0.426
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 9 66.67% 33.11 77.78% -0.139
Second Wave 0 667 37.63% 28.48 84.56% 0.744 0.8211 -0.527
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 38.5 100.0% 0.184 0.8078 0.38
Ward the Shores 2 40 20.51% 16.52 35.0% -1.309 -0.266 -0.601

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 168 33.51 66.67% -0.012 0.218 -0.583
Aid From Lesser Spirits 183 35.66 69.4% -0.027 -0.1011 -0.571
All Things Weaken 140 32.15 62.86% 0.168 0.5362 -1.293
Attenuated Essence 5 39.2 60.0% 0.155 0.2449 0.241
Back Against the Wall 210 36.12 63.81% 1.166 1.2172 -0.969
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 22.0 33.33% -0.382 -0.1644 -0.297
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 14.0 42.86% -1.059 -0.8904
Disintegrating Ecosystem 150 32.21 60.0% -0.237 0.1666 -0.657
Downward Spiral 289 28.28 62.28% -0.854 -0.6133 -0.821
Erosion of Will 149 32.21 57.72% -0.476 -0.1724 -0.388
Intensifying Exploitation 2 43.5 100.0% 0.848 1.1264 0.306
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 36.88 90.77% -0.112 -0.6009 -0.105
Memory Fades to Dust 289 24.1 54.33% -0.002 0.3375 -0.228
Power Corrodes the Spirit 138 30.25 64.49% 0.018 0.2415 -1.157
Promising Farmlands 162 29.3 58.64% -0.647 -0.1879 -1.373
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 27.67 100.0% 0.543 0.5773
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 25.4 60.0% 0.878 1.2733 0.261
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 41.82 98.0% 0.144 -0.5454 0.596
Thriving Communities 144 31.58 64.58% -0.308 0.036 -1.305
Thriving Crops 3 15.67 33.33% -0.444 -0.6312 0.062
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.516
Unnatural Proliferation 148 35.89 62.16% -0.585 -0.4074 -1.044
Untended Land Crumbles 115 30.89 63.48% -0.798 -0.5377 -0.956

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3186 39.65% 30.81 77.87% -0.157 0.615 -0.269
B 3453 37.07% 29.63 75.73% -0.762 -0.0072 -0.357
C 3552 37.25% 30.86 76.6% 0.301 0.9056 0.28
D 3004 39.1% 31.34 80.16% 0.557 1.2856 -0.297
E 2005 36.65% 31.16 77.76% 0.194 0.7896 0.16
F 1706 40.93% 33.35 82.18% -0.5 0.1592 0.065
G 1462 40.3% 32.57 82.28% 0.262 0.9425 0.106
H 1494 40.58% 33.39 82.66% 0.13 0.7254 0.329
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 248 0.0% 15.99 59.27% -0.1 0.6856
Not Using Events or Tokens 642 40.17% 20.04 67.76% -0.89 -0.5329 0.447
Skip Initial Invader Actions 290 17.89% 29.25 82.76% -1.097 -1.7342 0.689
Start of Game Growth 400 26.51% 29.34 78.75% -0.622 -0.9182 0.846
Unlimited Undo 901 29.99% 35.31 84.79% -0.22 -0.2389 0.847
Using Tokens but Not Events 917 19.81% 23.02 73.61% -0.469 -0.5157 -0.788

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 758 20.49 12.8%
II 2288 31.02 77.49%
III 2450 34.76 90.49%
IV 1156 38.06 99.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 97
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2195
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1712
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1149
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 241
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47
Lose: Adversary condition 244
Win: Sacrifice victory 13
Lose: Scenario condition 77
Win: Scenario condition 74
Lose: Blight pool ran out 746
Lose: Spirit destroyed 57

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)