Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 33.33% 23.5 75.0% 0.336 0.0741
Blitz 0 58 43.4% 25.16 65.52% 0.759 1.1237 -0.247
Dahan Insurrection 4 71 32.86% 49.45 73.24% 0.078 -0.0539 -0.25
Despicable Theft 2 7 71.43% 19.43 57.14% 0.093 0.7165
Elemental Invocation 1 41 55.0% 28.27 70.73% 0.219
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 439 7.74% 27.27 54.9% 0.722 0.2616 -0.136
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 54.17% 30.33 70.83%
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 41.04 65.38% -0.138 -0.001 0.397
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 12 58.33% 33.42 75.0% -0.102
Second Wave 0 974 35.93% 26.7 81.62% 0.994 1.0443 -0.615
Varied Terrains 2 13 38.46% 43.92 76.92% -0.591 0.349 0.307
Ward the Shores 2 43 19.05% 16.44 34.88% -0.435 0.5236 -0.691

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 186 32.8 65.59% -0.871 -0.695 -0.165
Aid From Lesser Spirits 218 35.05 71.1% 0.614 0.5096 -0.21
All Things Weaken 182 30.71 59.34% -0.685 -0.4558 -0.509
Attenuated Essence 36 30.97 55.56% -0.006 0.0288 -0.423
Back Against the Wall 256 34.23 62.11% -0.655 -0.6763 -0.529
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 23 22.65 52.17% 0.544 0.6486 -0.572
Burn Brightest Before the End 32 21.53 53.13% 0.806 0.9458 0.156
Disintegrating Ecosystem 187 29.99 57.22% -0.768 -0.4098 -0.581
Downward Spiral 385 25.18 58.18% -0.48 -0.3969 -0.463
Erosion of Will 187 29.65 56.68% -0.131 0.1227 -0.398
Intensifying Exploitation 31 23.29 61.29% 0.312 0.5685 -0.858
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 34.32 88.89% 0.23 -0.1725 0.368
Memory Fades to Dust 390 22.88 51.54% 0.555 0.834 -0.327
Power Corrodes the Spirit 178 28.88 61.8% -0.524 -0.2525 -0.424
Promising Farmlands 194 27.87 58.76% -0.906
Shattered Fragments of Power 20 30.95 60.0% 0.398 0.5325 -0.653
Slow Dissolution of Will 30 21.03 33.33% 0.023 0.3848 -0.841
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 55 39.65 96.36% 0.172 -0.3875 0.5
The Border of Life and Death 5 8.8 0.0% -0.194 -0.5599 -0.24
Thriving Communities 193 29.85 65.8% 0.09 0.4076 -0.885
Thriving Crops 18 24.72 44.44% 0.774
Tipping Point 35 32.77 62.86% -0.391
Unnatural Proliferation 190 33.16 60.53% -0.354 -0.2636 -0.722
Untended Land Crumbles 151 28.02 56.29% -0.88 -0.6114 -0.737

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4564 37.26% 26.51 69.46% -0.13 1.0189 -0.174
B 4914 34.67% 25.65 67.28% 0.196 1.264 -0.174
C 5097 34.31% 26.52 68.0% -0.118 0.8011 0.141
D 4205 36.79% 27.57 72.13% 0.086 1.1486 -0.142
E 3063 31.94% 26.61 68.53% -0.158 0.7959 0.1
F 2368 39.21% 29.76 75.72% 0.281 1.2838 0.264
G 2020 39.58% 29.81 77.03% 0.176 1.145 0.075
H 2066 40.07% 30.24 77.11% 0.214 1.1721 0.185
East 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 100.0%
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
West 2 50.0% 37.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 426 0.0% 12.0 44.37% -0.552 0.2299 -0.618
Not Using Events or Tokens 1067 39.81% 15.9 54.26% -0.573 -0.2514 -0.53
Skip Initial Invader Actions 394 16.05% 28.26 78.68% 0.788 0.1469 0.549
Start of Game Growth 545 23.5% 28.31 75.05% -0.388 -0.9672 0.303
Unlimited Undo 1215 27.41% 31.99 80.58% 0.591 0.3784 0.636
Using Tokens but Not Events 1468 19.08% 19.53 62.47% 0.361 0.2784 -1.298

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1821 12.75 7.25%
II 3104 30.01 75.13%
III 3144 34.87 90.78%
IV 1423 38.76 99.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 132
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2830
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2265
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1409
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1182
Lose: Invader deck ran out 55
Lose: Adversary condition 344
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 90
Win: Scenario condition 83
Lose: Blight pool ran out 997
Lose: Spirit destroyed 91

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)