Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 33.33% 29.22 -1.195 88.89% 0.018 0.3072
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 31 35.48% 33.13 0.985 93.55% 0.365 0.7789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 52 53.85% 39.58 3.98 82.69% -0.387 0.4965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 45 55.56% 43.98 6.159 88.89% -0.159 1.0828
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 34 76.47% 45.59 7.318 73.53% -0.629 0.8673
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 75.0% 53.44 11.181 81.25% -0.043 1.8957
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 51 86.27% 45.98 7.995 54.9% -1.229 0.8141
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 108 32.38% 24.47 -2.885 85.19% -0.091 -0.0495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 100 38.54% 28.23 -0.822 85.0% 0.055 0.0372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 238 41.6% 41.38 5.214 94.96% 1.089 1.1021
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 195 37.63% 46.34 7.394 90.77% 0.221 0.5044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 99 52.53% 47.29 8.181 85.86% 0.025 0.384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 34 67.65% 53.74 11.339 76.47% -0.521 0.3034
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 73 79.45% 45.68 7.704 53.42% -1.561 -0.3214
The Kingdom of England 0 1 85 30.12% 22.85 -3.249 82.35% -0.393 -0.0636
The Kingdom of England 1 3 70 33.33% 33.86 1.518 85.71% -0.286 0.2309
The Kingdom of England 2 4 82 41.46% 36.52 2.632 82.93% -0.535 0.4388
The Kingdom of England 3 6 101 47.52% 40.88 4.516 71.29% -1.437 0.1427
The Kingdom of England 4 7 124 56.1% 43.96 6.163 70.97% -1.22 0.2748
The Kingdom of England 5 9 46 73.91% 52.67 9.847 73.91% -0.847 1.2234
The Kingdom of England 6 11 245 62.86% 53.16 10.284 64.49% -1.694 0.5501
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 58 41.38% 29.52 -1.046 91.38% 0.341 0.8529
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 50 44.0% 33.62 1.994 88.0% 0.263 1.1657
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 55 40.0% 37.38 2.941 67.27% -1.443 0.6977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 79 46.84% 49.46 8.754 78.48% -0.641 1.5573
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 56 42.86% 52.98 10.725 76.79% -0.872 1.2881
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 36 83.33% 47.89 8.491 55.56% -1.18 0.6379
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 126 57.14% 55.1 11.744 60.32% -1.538 0.5535
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 58 48.28% 20.22 -4.716 74.14% -0.629 -0.5399
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 50 28.0% 27.94 -1.229 92.0% 0.367 0.4022
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 94 31.52% 32.44 0.646 86.17% -0.308 -0.071
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 115 41.74% 41.8 5.208 88.7% 0.058 0.3483
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 77 44.16% 40.79 4.701 74.03% -0.841 -0.0603
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 60.87% 43.57 5.786 73.91% -0.793 0.3756
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 94 65.96% 47.09 7.895 72.34% -0.827 0.2957
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 33.33% 24.29 -3.394 91.67% -0.008 -0.0964
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 17 58.82% 30.59 0.459 82.35% 0.098 0.8766
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 47.37% 38.58 3.633 89.47% 0.018 0.4302
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 24 79.17% 41.08 4.885 70.83% -0.494 0.75
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 50.0% 47.43 8.026 78.57% -0.439 0.6691
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 100.0% 37.27 3.515 33.33% -1.651 0.333
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 40 80.0% 54.63 11.439 57.5% -1.644 0.2276

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 29 28.57% 28.66 -2.194 72.41% -0.872 -0.3063
Dahan Insurrection 4 66 33.85% 52.61 10.487 77.27% -0.477 -0.0769
Elemental Invocation 1 16 13.33% 33.13 0.796 81.25% -0.778 -0.2753
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 215 9.77% 40.29 2.481 77.21% -1.179 -0.8139
Powers Long Forgotten 1 18 55.56% 35.44 2.539 83.33% 0.24 0.686
Rituals of Terror 3 19 47.37% 44.68 6.544 89.47% 0.6 1.2451
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 8 62.5% 33.38 0.872 75.0% -0.404 0.2427
Second Wave 0 356 42.42% 30.64 -0.864 81.74% -0.529 -0.0994
Ward the Shores 2 25 40.0% 29.32 -1.286 60.0% -1.525 -0.4934

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 133 33.2 -1.61 66.92% -2.13 -0.0604
Aid From Lesser Spirits 145 36.76 -0.176 70.34% -1.95 -0.0374
All Things Weaken 97 33.23 -1.62 62.89% -2.254 -0.0944
Back Against the Wall 168 37.35 0.008 66.67% -1.985 0.1016
Disintegrating Ecosystem 118 33.75 -1.944 60.17% -2.289 -0.0672
Downward Spiral 234 29.53 -2.474 63.68% -2.073 -0.0516
Erosion of Will 120 33.2 -1.807 60.83% -2.237 -0.0294
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 52 36.38 0.131 94.23% -0.339 0.3399
Memory Fades to Dust 225 24.85 -3.729 53.33% -2.361 -0.1461
Power Corrodes the Spirit 95 32.49 -1.622 68.42% -2.068 -0.0467
Promising Farmlands 127 30.23 -2.925 62.99% -2.264 -0.0562
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 41 43.59 3.001 100.0% 0.888 1.2994
Thriving Communities 106 33.75 -2.107 64.15% -2.274 -0.1859
Tipping Point 35 32.77 -1.689 62.86% -1.656 0.5687
Unnatural Proliferation 116 37.04 -0.421 65.52% -2.101 -0.0198
Untended Land Crumbles 86 32.69 -1.963 63.95% -2.229 -0.1268

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2351 42.19% 32.6 -0.348 79.07% -0.166 -0.8537
B 2485 39.89% 32.2 -0.568 79.92% -0.176 -0.9597
C 2541 41.04% 33.39 0.231 80.44% -0.065 -1.0777
D 2273 41.46% 32.55 -0.552 80.77% -0.113 -0.8901
E 1225 43.59% 36.09 0.558 85.14% -0.063 -0.9578
F 1250 42.46% 35.27 0.286 84.16% -0.046 -0.8866
G 1026 41.36% 34.78 0.006 84.11% -0.159 -0.9907
H 1063 42.95% 36.25 0.821 85.23% 0.104 -0.735
East 2 50.0% 37.0 1.839 100.0% 0.24 -0.3364
Northeast 1 100.0% 53.0 8.548 100.0% 0.219 -0.306
Southeast 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.872 100.0% 0.021 -0.608
Southwest 1 0.0% 21.0 -4.872 100.0% 0.021 -0.1775
West 1 100.0% 53.0 8.548 100.0% 0.219 -0.1086

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 180 0.0% 15.02 -5.636 54.44% -2.368 -0.3155
Not Using Events or Tokens 462 40.48% 19.97 -4.243 66.88% -0.466 -0.2516
Skip Initial Invader Actions 180 26.87% 29.82 0.066 83.33% 0.353 -0.3335
Start of Game Growth 274 27.07% 29.92 -0.465 84.31% -0.127 -0.5964
Unlimited Undo 644 33.22% 38.47 2.457 85.87% 0.426 0.003
Using Tokens but Not Events 539 26.94% 27.96 -2.334 84.79% 0.034 -0.0169

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 370 22.37 14.32%
II 1587 30.88 76.12%
III 1876 34.39 90.62%
IV 907 37.55 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 47
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1489
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1022
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 818
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 178
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 66
Lose: Blight pool ran out 568
Lose: Spirit destroyed 41

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)