Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 52 17.31% 30.27 -8.047 86.54% -1.019 -0.7557
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 20 35.0% 27.95 -5.887 65.0% -0.141 0.2055
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 24 29.17% 34.54 3.184 62.5% 0.031 0.8603
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 20 40.0% 31.9 -0.565 55.0% -0.57 0.4213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 57.14% 32.29 42.86%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 101 20.79% 66.88 -0.735 63.37% -1.216 0.7969
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 81 16.05% 25.28 -0.929 83.95% 0.714 0.7994
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 44 15.91% 34.07 1.089 86.36% 0.635 0.54
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 172 15.7% 43.39 3.031 86.63% 0.14 0.1288
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 132 28.03% 43.26 3.348 82.58% 0.107 0.3037
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 35 40.0% 40.49 0.882 68.57% -0.592 -0.389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 0.0% 50.0 -9.561 80.0% -0.482 0.0793
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 17 58.82% 49.24 10.82 64.71% 0.373 1.7109
The Kingdom of England 0 1 59 15.25% 26.22 -5.47 62.71% -0.799 -0.5335
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16 31.25% 28.81 -1.101 62.5% -0.093 0.091
The Kingdom of England 2 4 31 29.03% 38.71 7.044 77.42% 0.575 1.3114
The Kingdom of England 3 6 55 40.0% 35.56 -1.113 52.73% -0.638 0.5015
The Kingdom of England 4 7 42 21.43% 47.26 -5.296 73.81% -0.635 0.4108
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 262 13.74% 51.52 -3.398 49.24% -1.516 0.5255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 37 16.22% 25.51 -2.523 75.68% -0.009 0.3932
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 16 31.25% 27.0 -8.732 56.25% -0.889 0.0662
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 29 44.83% 39.38 0.82 65.52% -0.675 0.3989
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 38 42.11% 42.71 1.728 52.63% -0.042 1.2459
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 29 44.83% 39.66 -3.503 51.72% -0.933 0.4685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 11 45.45% 49.73 23.349 54.55% 0.37 1.299
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 212 25.0% 59.46 7.202 61.32% -0.07 1.2742
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 25 16.0% 24.24 -1.695 76.0% 0.077 0.0936
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 33.33% 22.67 2.156 44.44% -0.51 -0.08
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7 42.86% 39.29 9.008 85.71% 0.344 0.7857
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 42 21.43% 39.9 6.421 73.81% 0.486 0.8714
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 33.33% 47.67 9.067 83.33% 0.486 1.1049
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 15 53.33% 52.8 10.029 80.0% 0.435 1.2182
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 212 28.77% 58.35 5.844 64.62% 0.029 1.3043
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 39 10.26% 18.64 -5.131 64.1% -1.119 -0.9389
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 21 38.1% 27.62 -7.293 71.43% -0.63 -0.6043
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 45 33.33% 34.8 1.859 62.22% 0.104 0.3271
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 26 34.62% 41.85 5.768 88.46% 0.382 0.8096
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 19 52.63% 36.11 -4.595 73.68% -0.54 0.0689
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6 50.0% 45.5 -6.048 66.67% -0.162 0.8475
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 89 28.09% 49.71 0.465 69.66% -0.454 0.4328
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 64 14.06% 31.53 4.409 85.94% 1.225 1.3462
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 20 20.0% 65.55 7.749 95.0% 0.591 1.2313
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 15 46.67% 38.27 6.5 80.0% 0.045 0.4705
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 21 61.9% 40.48 11.02 66.67% 1.187 2.3019
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 31 12.9% 50.45 1.756 80.65% 0.078 0.9821
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 20.0% 46.4 -8.952 40.0% -0.348 1.1475
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 50 26.0% 71.24 -4.105 66.0% -1.23 0.6103

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 25.0% 28.13 75.0% -0.044 -0.3 -0.495
Blitz 0 76 7.69% 24.38 84.21% -0.012 0.1856 -0.585
Dahan Insurrection 4 48 8.51% 64.79 89.58% -0.186 -0.6281 1.22
Despicable Theft 2 7 14.29% 13.86 28.57% -0.289 0.5231 -0.297
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 24.1 60.0% -0.046 0.6566 -0.629
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 439 2.96% 46.79 70.84% -0.983 -1.6278 0.773
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 33.33% 24.22 55.56% -0.627 0.0086
Rituals of Terror 3 5 20.0% 24.2 60.0% -0.343 -0.2423
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 40.0% 44.4 80.0% -0.162 0.8474 -0.247
Second Wave 0 210 23.33% 31.97 88.1% 0.954 1.02 0.56
Varied Terrains 2 11 45.45% 26.55 54.55% 0.327 0.9496 -0.71
Ward the Shores 2 15 13.33% 30.87 73.33% -0.172 0.9126 -0.097

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 42 34.21 66.67% 0.72 0.9628 -1.349
Aid From Lesser Spirits 54 40.02 74.07% 1.357 1.2798 0.967
All Things Weaken 36 37.39 75.0% -0.418 -0.0253 0.738
Attenuated Essence 2 55.5 100.0% 0.755 0.8622 0.862
Back Against the Wall 49 49.37 79.59% 1.007 1.0646 0.792
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 16.25 50.0% -0.083 0.1189 -0.695
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 40.0 33.33% 0.036 0.2462 -0.264
Disintegrating Ecosystem 38 33.87 65.79% 0.181 0.6047 0.386
Downward Spiral 50 37.12 72.0% 1.063 1.2988 0.271
Erosion of Will 33 35.88 66.67% 0.718 1.027 0.103
Intensifying Exploitation 9 37.78 55.56% 0.235 0.5226 0.439
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 45.37 85.19% 0.016 -0.4783 0.548
Memory Fades to Dust 36 35.92 75.0% -0.836 -0.4992 0.697
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 33.62 67.57% -0.589 -0.3684 0.06
Promising Farmlands 34 43.09 67.65% 0.021 0.4739 1.333
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 61.33 100.0% 0.723 0.7742 0.416
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 6.33 0.0% -0.787 -0.388 -0.768
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 44.64 95.45% 0.246 -0.4646 0.244
The Border of Life and Death 3 16.33 33.33% -0.057 -0.3924
Thriving Communities 33 46.21 75.76% 0.383 0.7457 1.225
Thriving Crops 1 34.0 100.0% 0.816 0.618
Unnatural Proliferation 47 41.23 68.09% 0.405 0.62 0.431
Untended Land Crumbles 43 29.84 65.12% 0.306 0.5873 -0.02

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2296 20.82% 34.7 78.27% 0.189 0.9289 0.252
B 2307 21.12% 34.43 77.33% -0.0 0.7257 -0.205
C 2314 20.23% 34.12 77.96% -0.156 0.4265 -0.106
D 2289 20.51% 34.42 77.72% 0.01 0.7212 0.066
E 2322 20.52% 34.9 77.99% -0.164 0.4015 0.201
F 2310 21.32% 34.37 77.23% 0.045 0.7153 -0.135
G 2084 19.7% 34.96 78.55% 0.07 0.7214 0.033
H 2115 18.91% 34.82 77.16% -0.083 0.4871 -0.19

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 62 0.0% 23.15 82.26% -0.339 0.4368
Not Using Events or Tokens 195 0.0% 25.42 98.46% 1.547 1.9258
Skip Initial Invader Actions 502 6.18% 50.64 70.12% 1.125 0.5071 -0.094
Start of Game Growth 504 8.13% 50.18 70.63% -0.567 -0.9157 -0.425
Unlimited Undo 522 11.25% 49.0 78.35% -0.136 -0.1424 1.192
Using Tokens but Not Events 420 7.8% 28.55 86.67% 0.985 0.9751 0.132

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 604 20.4 22.35%
II 960 31.01 83.96%
III 1059 34.76 95.94%
IV 437 38.07 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 135
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 995
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 772
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 434
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 359
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 119
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 87
Win: Scenario condition 54
Lose: Blight pool ran out 76
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)