Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 42 21.43% 34.95 1.662 100.0% 0.735 1.1038
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 15 33.33% 35.0 0.37 80.0% -0.236 0.1073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 16 31.25% 40.63 1.57 68.75% -0.352 0.6293
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 45.45% 42.64 72.73%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 66.67% 37.67 -13.953 50.0% -0.524 0.8517
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 60 28.33% 87.13 -0.299 80.0% -0.374 1.9156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 57 22.81% 28.96 1.939 94.74% 0.565 0.447
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 31 19.35% 38.13 5.03 90.32% 0.409 0.2557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 142 16.9% 46.95 5.231 92.25% -0.265 -0.1558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 92 27.17% 50.04 10.045 94.57% 0.312 0.7115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 18 38.89% 49.83 11.46 77.78% 0.168 0.4754
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 62.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 14 64.29% 50.0 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 42 14.29% 32.48 0.139 76.19% -0.201 0.1595
The Kingdom of England 1 3 11 45.45% 34.45 4.42 72.73% 0.439 0.9953
The Kingdom of England 2 4 24 33.33% 40.08 3.648 79.17% -0.392 0.642
The Kingdom of England 3 6 42 38.1% 39.98 8.517 57.14% 0.217 1.711
The Kingdom of England 4 7 35 25.71% 51.34 11.549 80.0% 0.323 1.7289
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 145 19.31% 70.72 14.554 66.21% -0.111 2.2002
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 27 22.22% 30.11 -8.035 88.89% -0.574 0.0085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 30.0% 41.4 -6.612 90.0% -0.444 0.6236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 23 47.83% 42.52 73.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 33 42.42% 45.67 8.709 54.55% -0.105 2.0271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 40.0% 51.4 4.544 65.0% -0.773 1.056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 40.0% 47.8 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 133 35.34% 71.53 10.7 71.43% -0.818 1.3018
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 18 16.67% 28.67 0.539 88.89% 0.36 0.2739
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 40.0% 26.4 -4.542 60.0% -0.477 0.4169
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 38.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 26 26.92% 45.54 9.568 80.77% 0.393 1.0785
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 0.0% 44.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 25.0% 63.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 94 48.94% 79.56 15.257 91.49% 0.045 1.6929
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 23 8.7% 25.3 -0.959 91.3% 0.056 0.1443
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 15 40.0% 37.07 3.053 93.33% 0.033 0.0702
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 25 44.0% 39.92 4.871 64.0% 0.065 0.3052
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 21 38.1% 45.33 6.021 95.24% 0.533 0.9302
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14 64.29% 45.71 4.04 92.86% 0.237 1.1025
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 54.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 72 29.17% 54.82 2.917 77.78% -0.805 0.2621
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 50 14.0% 33.54 2.339 90.0% 0.299 -0.0532
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 17 17.65% 70.18 4.578 94.12% 0.35 1.1192
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 36.36% 40.91 0.433 90.91% 0.136 0.4345
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 50.0% 42.4 11.237 60.0% 0.194 1.5098
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 10.71% 54.04 5.936 85.71% -0.431 0.8139
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 25.0% 58.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 35 31.43% 90.0 24.072 82.86% 0.061 2.0398

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 50.0% 42.5 100.0% 0.165 -0.2817 0.055
Blitz 0 48 27.27% 27.17 93.75% 0.9 1.3564 -0.327
Dahan Insurrection 4 43 9.52% 67.72 93.02% -0.921 -0.9013 0.889
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 5 40.0% 36.0 80.0% -0.574 0.1253
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 367 3.27% 51.42 76.57% -0.357 -0.3161 -0.849
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 50.0% 36.33 83.33%
Rituals of Terror 3 4 25.0% 30.25 75.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0%
Second Wave 0 163 24.54% 33.9 92.64% 0.221 0.6825 0.45
Varied Terrains 2 8 50.0% 32.25 62.5%
Ward the Shores 2 10 20.0% 39.5 90.0% 0.016 0.7601

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 37 32.05 64.86% -0.8 0.9308 -1.837
Aid From Lesser Spirits 44 40.2 75.0% -0.424 1.152 0.049
All Things Weaken 33 38.61 78.79% -1.042 0.8354 0.414
Back Against the Wall 38 50.55 78.95% 0.135 1.7717 0.112
Disintegrating Ecosystem 30 34.73 70.0% -0.086 1.7567 -0.122
Downward Spiral 41 39.49 75.61% -0.124
Erosion of Will 30 35.93 66.67% -0.181 1.719 -0.401
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 22 50.55 90.91% 0.188 0.6879 0.356
Memory Fades to Dust 30 39.1 83.33% 0.531 2.407 0.432
Power Corrodes the Spirit 31 35.97 70.97% 0.169 1.8739 -0.452
Promising Farmlands 28 46.54 71.43% 0.627
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 47.88 100.0% 0.444 0.6544 0.353
Thriving Communities 27 48.07 77.78% -0.122 1.7482 0.513
Unnatural Proliferation 38 44.34 73.68% -0.012 1.7425 -0.127
Untended Land Crumbles 37 29.89 64.86% -0.603 1.2117 -0.327

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1676 22.83% 38.11 87.17% 0.174 0.9517 0.088
B 1657 23.17% 38.19 86.66% 0.168 0.871 -0.322
C 1667 22.31% 37.91 87.52% 0.517 1.0445 0.054
D 1658 22.89% 37.92 86.67% -0.426 0.3087 0.031
E 1703 22.2% 38.66 87.32% 0.351 0.9347 0.564
F 1652 23.65% 38.32 86.5% -0.478 0.2295 -0.11
G 1513 21.82% 38.56 87.9% -0.137 0.5047 0.11
H 1495 20.9% 39.1 87.09% -0.029 0.6163 -0.315

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 61 0.0% 23.52 83.61% -2.392 -0.3161
Not Using Events or Tokens 179 0.0% 25.51 98.88% 0.516 0.6872
Skip Initial Invader Actions 291 7.44% 62.23 86.25% -0.35 -1.4096 0.628
Start of Game Growth 305 10.55% 62.41 87.54% 0.08 -0.3417 -0.39
Unlimited Undo 326 15.27% 58.12 94.79% 1.098 0.6822 2.168
Using Tokens but Not Events 300 8.37% 31.77 94.0% 0.404 0.5199 0.364

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 276 22.63 44.93%
II 763 31.12 86.37%
III 828 34.7 97.22%
IV 353 37.97 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 124
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 786
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 628
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 352
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 104
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 81
Win: Scenario condition 49
Lose: Blight pool ran out 63
Lose: Spirit destroyed 18

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)