Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 25 28.0% 34.48 1.854 100.0% 0.27 0.8213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 36.22 88.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 38.46% 41.46 3.128 69.23% -0.507 0.6119
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 45.45% 42.64 9.456 72.73% 0.068 1.5989
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 60.0% 45.2 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 53 26.42% 91.94 13.129 84.91% 0.328 2.5889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 41 31.71% 28.51 -3.228 92.68% 0.359 0.603
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 19 21.05% 33.68 -0.79 89.47% -0.247 -0.3732
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 110 15.45% 47.91 3.106 94.55% -0.153 -0.0373
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 68 25.0% 49.74 6.277 95.59% 0.481 0.855
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 38.46% 50.0 2.86 76.92% -0.589 -0.1226
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 61.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 77.78% 50.22 10.722 66.67% -0.459 1.1158
The Kingdom of England 0 1 28 17.86% 37.46 -0.969 85.71% -0.386 0.1302
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 66.67% 27.5 -0.59 50.0% -0.485 0.1247
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 33.33% 40.0 -2.5 77.78% -0.482 0.645
The Kingdom of England 3 6 31 35.48% 38.0 -0.164 48.39% -1.355 0.3885
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 21.05% 54.05 3.227 84.21% -0.61 0.9683
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 109 21.1% 65.69 5.877 61.47% -1.359 0.9403
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 20 30.0% 31.7 2.109 90.0% 0.215 1.1169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 22.22% 44.78 4.27 100.0% 0.09 0.9805
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 17 47.06% 40.18 -0.619 70.59% -0.742 1.6603
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 27 33.33% 44.85 2.129 51.85% -0.967 1.4169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 31.25% 51.88 -0.279 62.5% -0.562 1.914
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 40.0% 47.8 6.13 50.0% -0.482 1.5955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 107 34.58% 72.36 10.873 71.96% -0.44 1.9272
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 21.63 -7.036 87.5% -0.419 -0.5432
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 34.0 4.184 100.0% 0.091 0.9356
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 50.0% 35.5 1.285 100.0% 0.087 0.9154
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 57.14% 41.0 1.91 71.43% -0.813 0.0573
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 53.0 2.916 66.67% -0.503 0.9279
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 38 60.53% 81.0 12.504 92.11% 0.013 1.7118
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 15 6.67% 25.27 -1.654 93.33% 0.211 0.3777
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 41.67% 39.42 -0.498 100.0% 0.04 -0.1829
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 45.0% 43.25 0.971 70.0% 0.285 0.7382
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 15 26.67% 47.2 93.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 50.0% 47.5 -2.37 87.5% -0.45 0.5024
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 33.33% 44.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 47 29.79% 59.32 4.26 82.98% -0.825 0.3666
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 30 20.0% 32.77 -0.72 86.67% -0.525 -0.5813
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 13 7.69% 79.85 -7.306 92.31% -0.67 0.1043
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 16.67% 40.33 2.131 83.33% -0.368 0.3431
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 42.86% 43.0 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 21.43% 55.29 6.588 92.86% 1.05 2.4351
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 47.0 1.302 50.0% -0.3 1.6374
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 27 33.33% 92.26 15.539 81.48% 0.244 2.2627

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 37.33 100.0% 0.124 -0.0782 0.026
Blitz 0 19 37.5% 27.21 84.21% -0.612 -0.3543 -0.396
Dahan Insurrection 4 38 10.81% 69.11 94.74% 0.252 0.6647 1.13
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 34.67 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 271 2.58% 55.9 77.12% -0.88 -0.5745 -0.42
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 60.0% 36.8 80.0% 0.011 0.1925
Rituals of Terror 3 3 0.0% 34.33 100.0% 0.065 0.186
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0% 0.269 0.6838
Second Wave 0 104 27.88% 34.3 94.23% 0.014 0.58 0.378
Varied Terrains 2 4 25.0% 31.0 50.0% -0.837 -0.3107
Ward the Shores 2 4 0.0% 43.25 100.0% 0.045 1.2064

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 30.07 66.67% -1.158 0.7449 -1.504
Aid From Lesser Spirits 31 38.87 74.19% -0.123 1.6066 0.007
All Things Weaken 17 44.29 88.24% 0.125 2.1106 0.751
Back Against the Wall 24 52.63 79.17% 0.229 2.0456 0.321
Disintegrating Ecosystem 23 32.43 65.22% -0.11 1.9405 -0.179
Downward Spiral 32 35.88 71.88% -0.475 1.5178 -0.136
Erosion of Will 20 34.85 65.0% -0.286 1.7972 -0.372
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 51.7 90.0% 0.215 0.6563 0.13
Memory Fades to Dust 18 38.5 77.78% -0.225 1.8589 0.51
Power Corrodes the Spirit 20 35.4 65.0% -0.896 1.0426 -0.463
Promising Farmlands 24 45.92 70.83% -0.821 1.2246 0.629
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11 45.55 100.0% 0.149 0.5739 0.044
Thriving Communities 18 48.94 77.78% -0.299 1.6848 0.543
Unnatural Proliferation 23 44.87 69.57% 0.412 2.3764 0.047
Untended Land Crumbles 28 30.39 67.86% -0.947 1.0462 -0.133

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1118 24.07% 39.08 87.12% -0.262 0.5357 -0.048
B 1110 23.35% 39.18 86.67% 0.079 0.8229 -0.397
C 1118 23.97% 38.77 87.03% 0.62 1.1885 0.113
D 1129 23.4% 39.07 86.98% -0.353 0.4428 0.208
E 1137 22.63% 39.63 87.42% -0.178 0.4688 0.187
F 1102 24.51% 39.06 86.21% -0.235 0.489 -0.049
G 1021 22.63% 39.52 88.44% 0.475 1.2064 0.157
H 993 20.69% 40.15 87.31% -0.062 0.6501 -0.065

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 27.08 100.0% 0.221 2.3498
Not Using Events or Tokens 108 0.0% 26.1 99.07% 1.117 1.2919
Skip Initial Invader Actions 180 8.81% 67.84 83.89% -0.474 -0.6166 0.886
Start of Game Growth 199 12.92% 68.11 85.93% 0.126 -0.6345 -0.403
Unlimited Undo 193 18.82% 62.94 96.37% 1.46 0.8557 1.926
Using Tokens but Not Events 175 10.6% 35.49 96.57% 0.517 0.3604 0.759

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 180 22.56 45.0%
II 521 30.98 85.41%
III 575 34.53 98.09%
IV 214 37.77 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 551
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 417
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 213
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 79
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 40
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)