Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 37 21.62% 35.49 3.725 100.0% 0.33 0.8379
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 13 38.46% 33.38 -4.933 76.92% -0.785 -0.381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15 33.33% 42.0 3.004 73.33% 0.085 1.2622
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 45.45% 42.64 72.73%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 60.0% 45.2 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 60 28.33% 87.13 8.95 80.0% -0.352 1.9191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 52 25.0% 28.85 0.5 94.23% 0.359 0.3119
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 27 22.22% 37.15 2.902 88.89% -0.157 -0.3895
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 137 16.06% 47.14 4.067 91.97% -0.448 -0.2582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 90 26.67% 50.12 9.422 94.44% 0.444 0.81
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 33.33% 49.33 9.975 73.33% 0.356 0.7146
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 62.5 15.122 100.0% 0.201 1.3672
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 14 64.29% 50.0 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 40 15.0% 32.65 -3.37 75.0% -1.306 -0.7485
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 50.0% 32.5 8.071 62.5% 0.085 0.763
The Kingdom of England 2 4 22 31.82% 39.91 2.16 77.27% -0.394 0.7597
The Kingdom of England 3 6 37 37.84% 38.7 2.306 51.35% -0.857 0.8202
The Kingdom of England 4 7 33 27.27% 51.12 5.973 78.79% -1.377 0.09
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 133 21.05% 68.62 13.793 63.91% -0.106 2.4571
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 26 23.08% 31.27 -0.362 92.31% 0.163 0.8366
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 30.0% 41.4 -10.838 90.0% -0.596 0.4759
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 23 47.83% 42.52 10.002 73.91% 0.162 2.2776
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 31 38.71% 46.16 8.84 54.84% -0.396 1.7339
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 52.78 10.161 66.67% 0.139 2.4838
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 40.0% 47.8 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 126 35.71% 71.79 12.593 71.43% -0.449 1.7259
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 17 17.65% 29.0 -1.03 88.24% -0.004 -0.0978
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 40.0% 26.4 -4.832 60.0% -0.877 0.0137
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 38.0 -1.471 80.0% 0.011 1.2138
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 30.43% 45.26 5.033 78.26% -0.388 0.4713
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 0.0% 39.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 25.0% 63.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 77 54.55% 78.75 13.778 92.21% 0.104 1.6619
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 22 9.09% 25.36 -1.624 90.91% -0.195 -0.024
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 14 35.71% 36.64 -4.84 92.86% -0.345 -0.1254
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 24 45.83% 40.13 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 36.84% 45.47 2.973 94.74% 0.2 0.6515
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 54.55% 45.82 1.491 90.91% 0.12 1.1202
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 54.6 19.871 80.0% 0.236 1.277
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 61 27.87% 57.97 6.764 80.33% -0.199 0.9593
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 43 13.95% 33.02 1.252 88.37% 0.061 -0.3908
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 20.0% 73.93 93.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 30.0% 41.7 2.569 90.0% 0.1 0.5371
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 50.0% 39.75 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 10.71% 54.04 6.688 85.71% -0.032 1.1108
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 25.0% 58.0 18.563 50.0% 0.007 2.1422
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 33.33% 89.73 18.911 81.82% 0.185 2.1555

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 37.33 100.0% 0.048
Blitz 0 39 33.33% 27.33 92.31% 0.187 0.6302 -0.337
Dahan Insurrection 4 43 9.52% 67.72 93.02% -0.374 -0.2764 0.882
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.061 0.6068
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 346 3.47% 52.59 76.3% -1.102 -0.8701 -0.833
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 50.0% 36.33 83.33% 0.147 0.5546
Rituals of Terror 3 4 25.0% 30.25 75.0% -0.681 -0.9166
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0%
Second Wave 0 146 25.34% 33.98 93.15% -0.273 0.419 0.444
Varied Terrains 2 8 50.0% 32.25 62.5% 0.076 0.8628
Ward the Shores 2 8 25.0% 42.75 87.5% -0.406 0.4745

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 33 32.12 63.64% -1.111 0.8603 -1.824
Aid From Lesser Spirits 42 40.88 76.19% -0.45 1.3278 0.094
All Things Weaken 31 39.48 80.65% -1.097 0.9516 0.574
Back Against the Wall 35 51.31 80.0% -0.367 1.5724 0.14
Disintegrating Ecosystem 29 34.24 68.97% -0.321 1.8071 -0.142
Downward Spiral 40 38.88 75.0% -0.211 1.7502 -0.101
Erosion of Will 28 35.86 64.29% -0.197 1.8844 -0.407
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 49.95 90.48% 0.128
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.88 79.17% 0.141 2.2822 0.479
Power Corrodes the Spirit 26 33.88 65.38% -0.485 1.4958 -0.452
Promising Farmlands 27 46.15 70.37% -0.677 1.3449 0.626
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 48.93 100.0% 0.346 0.8421 0.351
Thriving Communities 26 47.35 76.92% -0.418 1.6411 0.49
Unnatural Proliferation 34 46.71 73.53% -0.229 1.728 -0.091
Untended Land Crumbles 35 29.71 65.71% -0.413 1.6198 -0.363

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1521 23.29% 38.55 87.44% 0.476 1.2126 0.145
B 1496 23.48% 38.71 86.9% 0.029 0.7257 -0.412
C 1505 22.82% 38.34 87.44% 0.059 0.5283 -0.08
D 1508 23.41% 38.47 87.07% -0.317 0.3926 0.095
E 1539 22.55% 39.11 87.52% 0.031 0.5758 0.526
F 1490 24.17% 38.8 86.91% -0.29 0.3713 -0.061
G 1356 22.05% 39.13 88.27% -0.025 0.606 0.14
H 1357 20.95% 39.55 87.25% 0.121 0.7857 -0.254

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 44 0.0% 27.18 100.0% 0.213 2.4416
Not Using Events or Tokens 154 0.0% 25.88 99.35% 0.765 0.9913
Skip Initial Invader Actions 263 8.11% 62.72 85.55% -0.543 -1.5235 0.733
Start of Game Growth 277 11.44% 62.89 87.0% -0.208 -0.6648 -0.37
Unlimited Undo 291 16.13% 58.6 94.5% 0.738 0.1864 2.078
Using Tokens but Not Events 263 8.68% 32.9 96.96% 0.849 1.0046 0.368

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 245 22.65 46.94%
II 687 31.08 86.03%
III 758 34.66 97.23%
IV 317 37.91 99.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 115
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 719
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 561
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 316
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 101
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 77
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 52
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)