Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 82 15.85% 24.52 -1.572 69.51% 0.05 0.4304
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 39 30.77% 27.15 2.818 64.1% 0.292 0.5699
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 37 29.73% 28.41 -1.617 51.35% -0.322 0.4369
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 27 40.74% 34.56 15.265 62.96% 0.874 1.9937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12 41.67% 18.83 -12.794 25.0% -0.401 0.9555
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 139 23.74% 54.32 -7.601 52.52% -1.654 0.2944
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 124 13.71% 21.13 -4.018 68.55% -0.785 -0.5787
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 85 15.29% 33.29 5.629 84.71% 1.027 1.0372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 242 13.64% 42.76 6.923 88.84% 1.375 1.4023
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 162 29.01% 40.88 1.787 78.4% -0.176 0.1119
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 41.67% 38.56 7.398 66.67% 0.543 0.84
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 0.0% 46.6 13.316 70.0% 0.377 0.9798
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 58.62% 40.24 1.828 48.28% -1.01 0.3834
The Kingdom of England 0 1 81 12.35% 24.28 2.938 58.02% 0.212 0.5357
The Kingdom of England 1 3 30 33.33% 31.93 5.149 73.33% 0.814 1.1094
The Kingdom of England 2 4 43 30.23% 34.63 0.397 67.44% -0.723 0.0008
The Kingdom of England 3 6 70 38.57% 32.89 4.422 47.14% -0.09 1.1463
The Kingdom of England 4 7 99 26.26% 40.21 3.637 65.66% -0.554 0.6271
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 40.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 426 11.03% 41.15 -2.538 39.2% -1.257 0.6848
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 59 13.56% 23.51 -0.054 66.1% 0.092 0.5731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 23 30.43% 28.65 0.879 60.87% -0.123 0.713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 40 35.0% 36.73 5.066 62.5% 0.21 1.2404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 57 49.12% 40.46 9.271 56.14% 0.507 1.9121
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 33 48.48% 39.03 3.913 51.52% -0.158 1.2634
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 15 40.0% 48.0 -10.423 53.33% -0.305 0.542
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 364 22.53% 48.02 2.195 51.37% -0.428 0.9582
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 43 11.63% 22.88 0.949 67.44% -0.008 0.2774
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 24 20.83% 27.92 0.072 54.17% -0.587 -0.1071
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 30.77% 30.08 -0.571 61.54% -0.453 -0.175
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 51 23.53% 39.69 4.285 74.51% -0.027 0.3846
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 15 20.0% 44.2 2.957 73.33% -0.307 0.5787
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 38 63.16% 45.71 4.959 73.68% -0.106 0.7038
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 332 21.99% 54.89 9.474 59.94% 0.228 1.2482
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 46 10.87% 17.65 0.399 60.87% 0.323 0.4722
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 36 27.78% 22.03 -0.858 55.56% -0.485 -0.3572
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 69 24.64% 33.13 2.41 68.12% 0.204 0.4019
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 35 28.57% 35.54 2.319 74.29% 0.109 0.5263
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 32 46.88% 32.5 -1.63 68.75% -0.271 0.4336
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 30.0% 27.3 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 124 31.45% 48.04 6.559 66.94% -0.054 0.937
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 77 16.88% 31.57 1.933 81.82% -0.239 -0.1403
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 30 16.67% 56.4 4.67 93.33% 0.351 1.2991
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 26 34.62% 30.04 7.055 61.54% 0.274 0.5545
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 51.72% 37.31 -9.165 62.07% -0.949 0.1616
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 41 29.27% 45.98 -2.544 68.29% -0.752 0.2575
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 50.0% 36.8 -4.32 20.0% -1.034 0.6326
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 97 30.93% 53.84 2.56 48.45% -1.021 0.7874

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 23.08% 21.85 53.85% 0.18 -0.0063 -0.351
Blitz 0 91 5.56% 24.87 85.71% 1.025 1.1566 -0.467
Dahan Insurrection 4 75 29.73% 57.96 74.67% 0.45 0.1946 1.002
Despicable Theft 2 10 30.0% 11.9 20.0% -0.2 0.3408 -0.272
Elemental Invocation 1 16 18.75% 16.56 43.75% -0.39 0.4662 -0.479
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 557 2.87% 42.06 62.84% -0.811 -1.5823 0.771
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 20.0% 17.8 40.0% -0.294 0.6407
Rituals of Terror 3 10 10.0% 16.4 40.0% -0.285 -0.189 -0.883
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 20.0% 22.2 40.0% -0.676 0.5208 -0.667
Second Wave 0 337 22.55% 27.46 81.01% 0.534 0.6195 0.9
Varied Terrains 2 11 45.45% 26.55 54.55% -0.471
Ward the Shores 2 18 11.11% 25.72 61.11% -0.325 0.7075 -0.209

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 57 33.6 66.67% 0.051 0.1802 -0.811
Aid From Lesser Spirits 73 41.42 73.97% -0.019 -0.1372 0.749
All Things Weaken 51 35.2 66.67% 0.207 0.5141 0.875
Attenuated Essence 16 30.75 43.75% -0.864 -0.8315 -0.481
Back Against the Wall 66 45.88 78.79% 0.823 0.8524 1.16
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 38.11 66.67% -0.213 -0.0271 -0.48
Burn Brightest Before the End 21 40.0 61.9% -0.243 -0.1729 0.336
Disintegrating Ecosystem 51 32.53 66.67% 0.19 0.5653 0.47
Downward Spiral 66 35.55 68.18% -0.219 -0.0531 -0.14
Erosion of Will 52 33.6 69.23% 0.729 0.9439 -0.245
Intensifying Exploitation 22 37.45 68.18% 1.043 1.2842 0.809
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 47.0 85.71% 1.037 0.4559 0.931
Memory Fades to Dust 52 37.52 73.08% -0.413 -0.1199 0.479
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53 28.62 64.15% -0.196 -0.0347 0.181
Promising Farmlands 45 42.38 68.89% 1.23 1.5262 1.289
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 40.33 73.33% 0.631 0.7195 0.428
Slow Dissolution of Will 14 29.57 57.14% -0.029 0.3645 -0.754
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 41.88 82.35% 0.378 -0.3334 0.93
The Border of Life and Death 5 9.8 20.0% -0.606 -1.0853 -0.363
Thriving Communities 43 44.84 76.74% -0.246 0.0538 1.772
Thriving Crops 6 34.83 83.33% 0.24 0.1383 0.869
Unnatural Proliferation 61 38.69 63.93% -0.131 0.0386 0.44
Untended Land Crumbles 57 31.0 63.16% 0.709 0.967 0.78

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3411 20.51% 31.6 71.24% 0.209 1.3519 0.057
B 3450 20.82% 31.28 70.23% -0.062 0.993 -0.104
C 3430 20.59% 31.38 70.93% -0.126 0.7617 -0.147
D 3429 20.82% 31.49 70.78% 0.082 1.136 0.143
E 3444 20.51% 31.64 70.79% 0.09 0.9948 0.069
F 3445 21.14% 31.34 70.33% -0.26 0.7446 -0.078
G 3146 18.93% 31.64 71.3% -0.245 0.723 0.049
H 3126 18.86% 31.55 70.28% 0.265 1.2582 -0.084

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 66 0.0% 22.21 78.79% 0.104 0.7678
Not Using Events or Tokens 211 0.0% 24.87 96.21% 0.72 1.214
Skip Initial Invader Actions 775 4.97% 44.44 62.84% 0.287 -0.3354 -0.704
Start of Game Growth 768 6.69% 42.7 61.72% -0.571 -0.9832 -0.668
Unlimited Undo 769 9.07% 43.66 70.61% 0.44 0.345 1.528
Using Tokens but Not Events 568 8.51% 26.34 80.63% 0.141 0.2164 -0.062

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1142 16.77 13.49%
II 1246 30.59 79.78%
III 1468 34.74 95.5%
IV 686 38.3 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 154
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1369
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 959
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 680
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 922
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 151
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 99
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 103
Lose: Spirit destroyed 23

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)