Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 33.33% 32.83 83.33% -0.262 -0.3401 0.025
Blitz 0 68 9.68% 24.38 83.82% 0.478 0.625 -0.664
Dahan Insurrection 4 47 8.7% 65.04 89.36% -0.297 -0.5043 1.02
Despicable Theft 2 6 16.67% 16.17 33.33% -0.551 0.1317
Elemental Invocation 1 8 25.0% 30.13 75.0% -0.161 0.5701 -0.329
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 420 3.1% 47.74 72.14% -0.224 -0.8303 0.502
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 33.33% 24.22 55.56% -0.581 -0.0922
Rituals of Terror 3 4 25.0% 30.25 75.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0%
Second Wave 0 183 24.04% 32.45 89.62% 0.787 0.8496 0.455
Varied Terrains 2 9 55.56% 28.67 55.56% -0.051 0.5117
Ward the Shores 2 13 15.38% 35.62 84.62% 0.162 1.3711

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 39 32.54 64.1% 0.353 0.624 -1.425
Aid From Lesser Spirits 49 38.2 71.43% 0.442 0.4807 0.588
All Things Weaken 35 37.77 77.14% -0.275 0.1857 0.641
Attenuated Essence 1 50.0 100.0% 0.219 0.425
Back Against the Wall 43 50.02 79.07% 0.551 0.7131 0.568
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 16.25 50.0% -0.115 0.2994 -0.66
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 40.0 33.33% -0.228 0.0771 -0.326
Disintegrating Ecosystem 34 35.47 70.59% 0.562 1.0885 0.246
Downward Spiral 48 37.71 72.92% 0.332 0.6846 0.21
Erosion of Will 31 36.42 67.74% 0.416 0.8239 -0.155
Intensifying Exploitation 7 38.14 57.14% 0.015 0.4015 0.392
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25 46.68 88.0% 0.136 -0.3893 0.859
Memory Fades to Dust 34 35.85 76.47% -0.353 0.1283 0.607
Power Corrodes the Spirit 34 33.59 67.65% -0.126 0.1787 -0.285
Promising Farmlands 32 45.78 71.88% 0.768 1.3538 1.102
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 68.5 100.0% 0.726 0.9044 0.437
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 0.0 0.0% -0.795 -0.2613 -0.777
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19 43.95 94.74% -0.0 -0.6783 0.091
The Border of Life and Death 2 0.0 0.0% -0.374 -0.5036
Thriving Communities 31 46.97 77.42% 0.208 0.7009 1.021
Unnatural Proliferation 44 41.75 68.18% -0.331 -0.0336 0.204
Untended Land Crumbles 41 28.41 63.41% -0.241 0.117 -0.103

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2088 21.11% 35.47 80.6% 0.379 1.2186 0.286
B 2087 21.27% 35.34 79.88% -0.055 0.7238 -0.149
C 2099 20.44% 34.95 80.23% -0.155 0.4987 -0.143
D 2084 20.95% 35.14 79.94% -0.218 0.581 -0.03
E 2114 20.74% 35.61 80.27% -0.248 0.3807 0.167
F 2095 21.66% 35.27 79.57% -0.156 0.563 -0.238
G 1891 19.85% 35.76 81.17% 0.132 0.8735 0.16
H 1909 19.33% 35.85 79.99% 0.202 0.8498 -0.144

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 61 0.0% 23.52 83.61% -1.164 -0.2803
Not Using Events or Tokens 185 0.0% 25.46 98.92% 2.067 2.3989
Skip Initial Invader Actions 437 6.7% 52.56 73.23% 1.21 0.6748 -0.258
Start of Game Growth 444 8.86% 52.14 73.65% -1.01 -1.3399 -0.665
Unlimited Undo 464 12.35% 50.45 81.68% 0.382 0.3598 1.219
Using Tokens but Not Events 394 8.11% 28.9 87.56% 0.138 0.0844 0.301

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 500 21.03 26.2%
II 895 31.04 85.14%
III 978 34.74 96.32%
IV 409 38.02 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 131
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 921
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 729
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 406
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 249
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 113
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 85
Win: Scenario condition 53
Lose: Blight pool ran out 70
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)