Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 108 13.89% 24.79 0.285 70.37% 0.17 0.5365
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 43 30.23% 27.23 -2.499 65.12% -0.08 0.2356
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 49 24.49% 26.39 7.361 48.98% 0.406 1.1717
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 46.88% 35.34 10.863 65.63% 0.237 1.1944
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 46.67% 19.93 -4.031 26.67% -0.594 0.7122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 26.0 -8.125 33.33% -0.271 1.3976
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 186 22.58% 51.65 -1.064 50.54% -0.59 1.3867
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 141 14.18% 20.13 -0.995 65.25% 0.275 0.4896
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 131 22.9% 29.62 -0.988 80.15% 0.35 0.4592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 282 14.54% 41.31 1.656 86.17% 0.418 0.494
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 182 28.57% 40.79 7.205 78.02% 0.061 0.2422
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 53 39.62% 39.26 12.694 67.92% 0.561 0.9522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 13 7.69% 49.92 22.728 76.92% 0.395 0.9307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 36 52.78% 33.17 -5.505 38.89% -0.675 0.612
The Kingdom of England 0 1 103 11.65% 23.99 3.88 58.25% 0.248 0.6606
The Kingdom of England 1 3 45 28.89% 30.49 -7.777 71.11% -1.185 -0.9054
The Kingdom of England 2 4 54 25.93% 31.35 -5.729 62.96% -0.649 -0.0696
The Kingdom of England 3 6 77 40.26% 33.04 -1.662 48.05% -0.272 0.8821
The Kingdom of England 4 7 118 23.73% 39.81 -1.687 66.1% -0.517 0.5724
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 46.0 16.686 55.56% 0.129 1.5243
The Kingdom of England 6 11 492 10.57% 41.18 4.56 39.63% -0.368 1.6146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 78 19.23% 23.24 -1.632 60.26% -0.56 -0.0953
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 32 28.13% 27.22 -4.928 59.38% -0.558 0.0967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 47 36.17% 33.66 -7.67 53.19% -0.422 0.5645
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 68 48.53% 40.66 6.443 55.88% -0.216 1.1436
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 37 43.24% 41.14 7.281 51.35% -0.513 0.8327
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 18 38.89% 40.0 -14.718 44.44% -0.461 0.5171
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 407 20.39% 44.94 -2.375 47.91% -1.018 0.4034
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 54 12.96% 23.52 4.756 68.52% 1.041 1.1798
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 44 20.45% 29.07 0.335 59.09% -0.427 -0.004
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 20 40.0% 28.85 2.356 55.0% -0.328 0.057
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 60 25.0% 38.13 4.472 70.0% 0.345 0.7334
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 33.33% 40.79 -13.28 58.33% -0.398 0.2748
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 45 66.67% 46.6 1.559 75.56% 0.288 0.923
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 454 21.15% 55.26 9.809 59.25% -0.084 0.9685
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 56 10.71% 16.39 -7.491 55.36% -0.646 -0.3437
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 44 25.0% 23.8 2.856 61.36% 0.234 0.3014
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 79 24.05% 31.8 -0.429 67.09% 0.108 0.2304
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 43 32.56% 32.51 -1.116 67.44% -0.786 -0.4095
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 38 52.63% 31.11 -1.005 63.16% -0.669 -0.0818
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 30.0% 27.3 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 142 28.87% 44.66 -5.479 61.27% -1.005 -0.0608
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 85 15.29% 30.75 -0.141 81.18% 0.248 0.3118
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 35 22.86% 52.4 3.197 91.43% 0.603 1.3974
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 39 35.9% 31.59 7.495 64.1% 0.77 1.2765
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 36 50.0% 37.22 1.053 61.11% -0.545 0.4082
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 43 27.91% 43.84 -12.098 65.12% -0.528 0.3492
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 15 46.67% 41.47 24.435 26.67% 0.435 1.8064
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 187 25.67% 50.95 1.042 46.52% -1.024 0.7958

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 22.22% 15.78 38.89% -0.472 -0.6919 -0.613
Blitz 0 102 7.81% 23.08 79.41% -0.452 -0.1656 -0.871
Dahan Insurrection 4 135 33.58% 51.52 61.48% -0.135 -0.2503 0.605
Despicable Theft 2 11 27.27% 10.82 18.18% -0.275
Elemental Invocation 1 23 13.04% 15.43 39.13% 0.279 1.0355 -0.477
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 608 2.63% 39.59 61.02% -0.01 -0.5912 0.732
Powers Long Forgotten 1 19 26.32% 17.42 42.11% 0.359 1.2123
Rituals of Terror 3 10 10.0% 16.4 40.0% -0.862
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 20.0% 22.2 40.0% -0.711
Second Wave 0 395 23.04% 27.68 80.25% 1.33 1.4092 0.904
Varied Terrains 2 14 50.0% 26.0 57.14% -0.454 0.4258 -0.442
Ward the Shores 2 24 12.5% 20.88 50.0% -0.561 0.4203 -0.37

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 64 34.44 68.75% 0.559 0.6631 -0.716
Aid From Lesser Spirits 78 42.03 74.36% 0.291 0.1467 1.014
All Things Weaken 62 34.66 67.74% 1.171 1.5365 0.986
Attenuated Essence 20 32.5 50.0% 0.23 0.2289 -0.309
Back Against the Wall 76 45.75 77.63% 0.153 0.2181 1.022
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 38.53 70.59% 0.078 0.3135 1.006
Burn Brightest Before the End 29 37.24 55.17% -0.283 -0.1223 -0.117
Disintegrating Ecosystem 65 31.94 61.54% -0.206 0.1703 0.309
Downward Spiral 71 34.76 66.2% -0.496 -0.4238 -0.017
Erosion of Will 60 34.28 70.0% -0.275 -0.0184 -0.214
Intensifying Exploitation 29 38.97 65.52% 0.477 0.751 0.417
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 45.98 85.37% 0.408 -0.079 0.992
Memory Fades to Dust 62 35.66 72.58% 0.356 0.5391 0.324
Power Corrodes the Spirit 66 30.44 60.61% 0.021 0.234 -0.026
Promising Farmlands 52 41.0 69.23% -0.269 0.0534 1.25
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 33.87 56.52% 0.376
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 27.96 65.38% 0.378 0.7621 -1.39
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 35 41.66 82.86% 0.183 -0.4935 1.219
The Border of Life and Death 9 15.44 33.33% -0.082 -0.5978 -0.334
Thriving Communities 55 44.0 69.09% -0.484 -0.1599 1.637
Thriving Crops 10 37.3 70.0% -0.449 -0.4475 0.82
Unnatural Proliferation 82 38.49 69.51% 0.683 0.8696 0.798
Untended Land Crumbles 60 32.22 63.33% 0.635 0.9742 0.862

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4121 20.76% 30.86 68.55% -0.023 0.8401 0.006
B 4146 20.89% 30.77 67.95% -0.217 0.6041 -0.074
C 4128 20.76% 30.81 68.6% 0.058 0.756 -0.094
D 4139 20.75% 30.87 68.45% 0.118 0.9737 0.043
E 4153 20.69% 31.06 68.36% 0.226 0.9141 0.012
F 4102 20.94% 30.54 67.7% -0.807 0.0105 -0.024
G 3765 19.23% 31.21 69.06% 0.053 0.9338 0.01
H 3702 18.94% 31.3 68.61% 0.517 1.2977 0.032

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 71 0.0% 21.01 74.65% -0.725 -0.0096
Not Using Events or Tokens 213 0.0% 24.64 95.31% -0.779 -0.3046
Skip Initial Invader Actions 969 5.35% 43.68 60.37% -0.211 -0.7786 -0.71
Start of Game Growth 976 6.93% 41.96 59.22% -0.729 -1.3933 -0.596
Unlimited Undo 972 9.02% 43.53 68.31% 1.209 1.232 1.527
Using Tokens but Not Events 668 8.33% 25.51 79.04% 0.577 0.6248 0.188

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1436 15.45 10.93%
II 1441 30.45 77.17%
III 1712 34.8 95.04%
IV 857 38.47 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 157
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1583
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1060
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 850
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1249
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13
Lose: Adversary condition 168
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 103
Win: Scenario condition 95
Lose: Blight pool ran out 138
Lose: Spirit destroyed 27

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)