Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 28 17.86% 13.46 35.71%
Blitz 0 114 10.53% 22.25 73.68% 0.327 0.5703 0.537
Dahan Insurrection 4 245 35.25% 48.54 57.55% -0.358 -0.3443 0.516
Despicable Theft 2 15 26.67% 14.8 26.67% -0.13
Elemental Invocation 1 37 21.62% 13.49 32.43% -0.428 0.3247 -0.554
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 863 2.67% 33.78 53.53% 0.208 -0.3883 -0.696
Powers Long Forgotten 1 50 20.0% 10.2 28.0% -0.571
Rituals of Terror 3 16 18.75% 16.5 37.5% 0.483
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 12.0% 15.32 32.0% -0.266
Second Wave 0 534 21.72% 26.13 73.97% -0.214 -0.2188 -0.281
Varied Terrains 2 21 33.33% 21.48 47.62%
Ward the Shores 2 30 10.0% 18.77 46.67%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 91 34.69 62.64% -0.059 0.0894 0.453
Aid From Lesser Spirits 109 42.07 74.31% 0.412 0.2992 0.689
All Things Weaken 104 32.62 59.62% -0.201 0.1739 0.55
Attenuated Essence 51 32.82 49.02% -0.288 -0.1627 -0.672
Back Against the Wall 105 42.82 72.38% 0.297 0.3379 0.941
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 52 32.0 59.62% -0.36 -0.1542 -0.124
Burn Brightest Before the End 82 33.62 48.78% 0.292 0.3364 0.249
Disintegrating Ecosystem 101 32.2 63.37% 0.2 0.698 -0.599
Downward Spiral 124 32.1 60.48% 0.498 0.7481 -0.783
Erosion of Will 93 35.53 67.74% 0.822 1.0797 1.083
Intensifying Exploitation 82 30.23 51.22% 0.184 0.4035 -0.698
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 61 43.59 81.97% 0.445 0.0593 1.541
Memory Fades to Dust 111 33.14 65.77% -0.081 0.1245 0.144
Power Corrodes the Spirit 91 31.45 60.44% -0.254 -0.0557 0.328
Promising Farmlands 90 39.32 63.33% 0.229 0.5851 0.134
Shattered Fragments of Power 60 40.7 60.0% -0.395 -0.1771 -0.548
Slow Dissolution of Will 60 29.58 60.0% 0.252 0.6819 0.976
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 39.75 80.39% 0.322 -0.302 0.551
The Border of Life and Death 26 22.81 34.62% -0.124 -0.4442 -0.222
Thriving Communities 96 39.32 64.58% 0.067 0.3861 0.578
Thriving Crops 35 42.66 65.71% -0.059 -0.1777 0.268
Unnatural Proliferation 115 35.58 60.0% -0.258 -0.1684 -0.324
Untended Land Crumbles 87 29.36 56.32% 0.509 0.734 -0.327

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6704 21.61% 28.08 60.52% 0.35 1.1491 0.139
B 6799 22.11% 28.18 60.02% -0.241 0.4895 0.024
C 6667 21.82% 28.0 59.79% 0.04 0.6444 -0.24
D 6766 21.85% 28.06 60.05% 0.196 0.9525 -0.123
E 6763 21.64% 28.18 60.15% 0.063 0.6479 -0.367
F 6684 21.38% 27.82 60.04% -0.014 0.6886 0.0
G 6172 20.96% 28.69 60.73% -0.206 0.5515 -0.103
H 6116 20.66% 28.62 60.1% -0.259 0.3717 0.589

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 103 0.0% 17.96 66.02% 0.003 0.8772
Not Using Events or Tokens 283 11.03% 23.72 87.63% 0.428 0.8045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1587 6.56% 38.82 53.12% -0.931 -1.2226 -0.375
Start of Game Growth 1758 7.89% 36.34 51.08% -0.384 -0.9408 -0.439
Unlimited Undo 1693 11.93% 39.06 59.3% -0.279 -0.2156 1.0
Using Tokens but Not Events 1009 9.6% 22.8 71.75% -0.414 -0.5414 -0.019

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2903 12.44 5.89%
II 2106 29.94 71.79%
III 2574 34.9 93.82%
IV 1288 38.84 99.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 171
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2333
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1438
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1275
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2768
Lose: Invader deck ran out 22
Lose: Adversary condition 288
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 138
Win: Scenario condition 155
Lose: Blight pool ran out 243
Lose: Spirit destroyed 36

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)