Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 92 16.3% 25.17 0.807 70.65% 0.357 0.8013
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 41 29.27% 27.66 -0.419 65.85% -0.2 0.1073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 25.58% 27.42 2.368 51.16% 0.2 0.9749
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 46.67% 34.57 12.339 63.33% 1.096 2.0638
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 42.86% 19.86 -1.748 28.57% -0.077 1.3497
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 148 22.97% 53.78 0.336 52.03% -0.656 1.4408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 128 14.84% 21.09 -2.703 67.97% -0.401 -0.1608
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 115 22.61% 30.54 0.543 82.61% 0.494 0.6098
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 248 14.11% 42.85 8.1 89.11% 1.219 1.3276
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 168 28.57% 40.73 3.119 77.98% -0.039 0.1838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 50 40.0% 38.54 14.129 66.0% 0.715 1.004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 11 9.09% 47.64 1.988 72.73% -0.247 0.3466
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 32 53.13% 36.47 -11.774 43.75% -1.5 -0.0143
The Kingdom of England 0 1 92 11.96% 24.15 -0.926 58.7% -0.162 0.1661
The Kingdom of England 1 3 37 29.73% 33.84 7.87 78.38% 1.147 1.4507
The Kingdom of England 2 4 49 28.57% 33.76 3.668 67.35% 0.569 1.2973
The Kingdom of England 3 6 73 39.73% 32.42 2.947 46.58% -0.278 0.9166
The Kingdom of England 4 7 111 25.23% 40.34 4.009 66.67% -0.203 1.0141
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 40.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 456 10.53% 41.03 -1.588 39.47% -0.962 1.0984
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 62 14.52% 23.94 -2.225 64.52% -0.923 -0.3684
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 27 29.63% 29.41 4.969 62.96% 0.269 0.9511
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 42 35.71% 36.36 2.238 59.52% -0.642 0.4602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 60 48.33% 39.85 8.607 55.0% 0.356 1.7471
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 33 48.48% 39.03 5.986 51.52% -0.332 1.1347
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 16 37.5% 45.0 -10.304 50.0% -0.226 0.8454
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 378 21.69% 46.52 -3.483 49.74% -0.838 0.5825
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 47 10.64% 22.87 1.517 65.96% -0.019 0.2273
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 32 18.75% 28.69 3.443 56.25% -0.209 0.4213
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 30.77% 30.08 -2.389 61.54% -0.373 0.0894
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 57 24.56% 38.44 2.517 70.18% -0.176 0.2894
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 20 35.0% 39.15 -2.894 55.0% -1.392 -0.5921
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 39 64.1% 45.82 1.905 74.36% -0.07 0.4939
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 378 21.16% 55.02 9.331 59.79% 0.086 1.0527
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 49 12.24% 18.31 -1.428 61.22% -0.268 -0.0639
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 40 25.0% 23.93 6.145 60.0% 0.635 0.6707
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 72 23.61% 32.85 3.518 68.06% 0.526 0.7403
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38 26.32% 32.74 -10.673 68.42% -1.011 -0.6512
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 34 50.0% 33.26 4.48 70.59% 0.498 1.196
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 30.0% 27.3 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 132 30.3% 47.33 -0.661 65.15% -0.529 0.5776
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 79 16.46% 31.72 6.044 82.28% 0.567 0.7371
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 32 18.75% 54.28 1.149 90.63% -0.042 0.798
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 34 38.24% 32.47 8.375 64.71% 0.597 0.8161
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 51.52% 38.42 4.566 63.64% -0.192 0.904
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 42 28.57% 44.88 2.383 66.67% -0.197 0.7786
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 53.85% 33.38 -0.478 15.38% -1.226 0.442
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 131 27.48% 52.6 3.342 48.09% -0.863 0.8049

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 21.43% 20.29 50.0% -0.023 0.0285 -0.256
Blitz 0 93 7.14% 24.87 84.95% 0.252 0.4525 -0.411
Dahan Insurrection 4 92 31.87% 54.22 68.48% 0.899 0.6873 0.838
Despicable Theft 2 11 27.27% 10.82 18.18% -0.347 0.4979 -0.277
Elemental Invocation 1 17 17.65% 19.06 47.06% 0.068 1.1388 -0.452
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 571 2.8% 41.25 62.0% -1.274 -1.9988 0.727
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 20.0% 17.8 40.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 10 10.0% 16.4 40.0% -0.815
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 20.0% 22.2 40.0% -0.333 0.8553 -0.668
Second Wave 0 358 23.46% 27.41 80.17% 0.358 0.4395 0.925
Varied Terrains 2 13 46.15% 28.0 61.54% 0.471 1.3721 -0.472
Ward the Shores 2 20 15.0% 23.15 55.0% -0.353 0.7027 -0.373

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 61 34.08 67.21% 0.366 0.5046 -0.769
Aid From Lesser Spirits 75 41.36 74.67% 0.286 0.227 0.776
All Things Weaken 52 35.42 67.31% 0.077 0.4314 0.886
Attenuated Essence 18 31.22 44.44% -0.651 -0.5403 -0.549
Back Against the Wall 69 45.43 78.26% 1.374 1.4501 1.208
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 40.58 75.0% 0.515 0.7254 0.251
Burn Brightest Before the End 25 38.32 60.0% -0.528 -0.4078 0.139
Disintegrating Ecosystem 56 33.2 66.07% 0.327 0.6962 0.394
Downward Spiral 66 35.55 68.18% -0.455 -0.2585 -0.062
Erosion of Will 53 33.3 69.81% 0.67 0.9367 -0.228
Intensifying Exploitation 25 37.04 64.0% 0.637 0.9068 0.322
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 37 47.3 83.78% 0.105 -0.4062 0.992
Memory Fades to Dust 53 37.79 73.58% -0.272 0.0391 0.47
Power Corrodes the Spirit 57 28.91 64.91% -0.39 -0.0956 0.275
Promising Farmlands 50 41.42 70.0% 0.607 0.9429 1.344
Shattered Fragments of Power 23 33.87 56.52% -0.351 -0.2422 0.403
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 26.65 60.87% 0.642 1.0425 -1.485
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 41.88 82.35% 1.069
The Border of Life and Death 6 8.17 16.67% -0.125 -0.4169 -0.372
Thriving Communities 46 45.43 76.09% 0.266 0.5986 1.874
Thriving Crops 6 34.83 83.33% -0.1 -0.187 0.803
Unnatural Proliferation 71 37.03 67.61% 0.459 0.607 0.373
Untended Land Crumbles 58 30.47 62.07% 0.665 0.9716 0.608

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3678 20.66% 31.3 70.12% -0.397 0.5078 -0.03
B 3713 20.91% 31.15 69.49% 0.036 0.8648 -0.082
C 3680 20.61% 31.22 70.22% 0.266 0.9459 -0.074
D 3690 20.9% 31.35 70.08% 0.026 0.8792 0.191
E 3698 20.62% 31.41 69.9% -0.12 0.5813 -0.006
F 3688 21.16% 31.13 69.52% -0.023 0.7583 -0.059
G 3372 19.3% 31.44 70.58% -0.108 0.6633 -0.03
H 3331 18.97% 31.5 69.86% 0.232 1.0004 -0.012

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 67 0.0% 22.27 79.1% 0.708 1.5387
Not Using Events or Tokens 211 0.0% 24.87 96.21%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 851 5.38% 44.17 62.04% -0.247 -0.8093 -0.682
Start of Game Growth 849 7.14% 42.53 61.01% -0.033 -0.5712 -0.774
Unlimited Undo 841 9.13% 43.79 69.8% 0.583 0.6236 1.583
Using Tokens but Not Events 603 8.53% 26.26 80.6% 0.112 0.0884 -0.022

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1241 16.23 12.49%
II 1319 30.54 78.7%
III 1558 34.77 95.38%
IV 754 38.37 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 155
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1448
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1001
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 748
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1036
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13
Lose: Adversary condition 155
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 99
Win: Scenario condition 74
Lose: Blight pool ran out 115
Lose: Spirit destroyed 25

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)