Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 23 30.43% 17.35 5.78 34.78% 0.245 0.8155
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 18 16.67% 40.5 72.22%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 11 18.18% 25.73 45.45%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 25 40.0% 27.0 7.813 52.0% 0.28 0.491
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 54 42.59% 31.22 5.636 42.59% 0.185 0.4937
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 64 14.06% 52.64 9.163 70.31% 0.362 1.5849
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 159 42.14% 44.08 -13.631 41.51% -0.571 1.5117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 153 13.07% 22.49 -3.682 62.09% -0.299 0.1048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 77 27.27% 29.27 5.591 67.53% 0.175 0.5588
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 77 31.17% 27.48 48.05%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 61 40.98% 30.2 -6.778 55.74% -0.589 0.3715
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 40 55.0% 23.48 32.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 18 55.56% 29.89 -10.494 44.44% -0.361 1.1654
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 284 20.77% 45.98 45.42%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 213 14.62% 18.37 6.019 57.75% 0.561 0.7224
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 204 20.1% 28.72 74.02%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 477 19.53% 38.77 3.848 81.34% 0.302 0.2512
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 347 32.56% 35.85 5.098 66.86% 0.248 0.5457
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 96 44.79% 37.35 9.417 64.58% 0.672 0.8543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 30 16.67% 39.5 63.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 62 48.39% 30.29 37.1%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 178 15.17% 21.15 -2.609 50.0% -0.318 0.0487
The Kingdom of England 1 3 85 22.35% 24.06 49.41%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 124 31.45% 26.52 -1.285 53.23% -0.213 0.3654
The Kingdom of England 3 6 149 41.61% 29.86 -1.997 45.64% -0.219 0.9171
The Kingdom of England 4 7 208 29.81% 34.78 4.861 54.81% 0.467 1.4874
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 62.5% 32.88 -12.006 33.33% -0.579 0.8848
The Kingdom of England 6 11 851 10.59% 35.43 -1.378 33.96% -0.021 1.705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 116 20.0% 21.4 0.228 54.31% -0.093 0.3639
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 53 35.85% 26.68 8.455 56.6% 0.172 0.8759
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 93 38.71% 33.45 13.7 55.91% 0.528 1.432
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 134 43.28% 40.54 7.059 56.72% 0.442 1.7802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 50 38.0% 40.66 6.729 52.0% -0.196 1.0714
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 41 41.46% 34.98 34.15%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 608 22.37% 37.79 7.883 39.97% -0.138 1.1638
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 98 15.31% 23.43 7.265 66.33% 0.919 1.1612
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 73 17.81% 28.47 58.9%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 60 33.33% 31.87 6.801 66.67% 0.483 0.6924
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 101 30.0% 36.25 -5.142 61.39% -0.658 -0.5888
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 50 30.0% 32.2 1.913 48.0% -0.255 0.2984
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 83 62.65% 37.12 7.664 60.24% 0.431 0.9133
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 599 25.04% 53.64 1.504 57.76% -0.407 0.674
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 117 19.83% 17.5 -5.017 50.43% -0.142 0.1261
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 87 20.69% 25.64 8.288 64.37% 0.386 0.4684
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 143 28.26% 29.92 5.787 60.84% 0.395 0.5593
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 37.31% 33.44 66.18%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 64 56.25% 33.11 -6.718 64.06% -0.432 0.1167
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 22 54.55% 28.77 3.035 40.91% -0.242 0.2391
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 207 32.2% 38.05 -6.786 52.66% -0.491 0.1952
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 131 22.14% 28.24 1.199 74.05% 0.137 0.5717
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 62 25.81% 40.56 -1.649 74.19% 0.2 1.0636
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 62 32.26% 29.63 1.513 59.68% 0.148 0.6287
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 58 46.55% 31.33 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 54 27.78% 39.98 16.748 59.26% 0.169 1.001
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 31 54.84% 26.87 -1.249 16.13% -0.39 0.9271
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 417 24.22% 46.87 -9.678 43.17% -0.627 1.181

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 31 19.35% 14.16 41.94% 0.702 1.072
Blitz 0 114 10.53% 22.25 73.68% 0.567
Dahan Insurrection 4 249 34.68% 48.44 57.83% 0.131 0.1047 0.834
Despicable Theft 2 15 26.67% 14.8 26.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 37 21.62% 13.49 32.43% -0.469
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 888 2.59% 33.9 53.6% 0.57 -0.0296 -0.655
Powers Long Forgotten 1 53 20.75% 10.74 28.3% -0.622 -0.014 -0.479
Rituals of Terror 3 19 31.58% 18.63 36.84% -0.242 -0.1175 0.648
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 12.0% 15.32 32.0% -0.232
Second Wave 0 551 21.78% 25.86 73.68% -0.059 0.0472 -0.108
Varied Terrains 2 24 33.33% 24.58 54.17% 0.388 1.1245
Ward the Shores 2 31 9.68% 18.16 45.16% -0.441 0.2411

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 93 34.23 61.29% -0.174
Aid From Lesser Spirits 113 41.82 74.34% 0.391 0.404 0.561
All Things Weaken 106 33.15 60.38% 0.388 0.8618 0.378
Attenuated Essence 53 32.17 49.06% 0.229 0.3753 -0.719
Back Against the Wall 109 42.51 71.56% -0.491 -0.3612 1.077
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 60 31.75 60.0% -0.154 0.1657 -0.168
Burn Brightest Before the End 86 33.71 50.0% 0.286 0.4625 -0.027
Disintegrating Ecosystem 109 32.67 63.3% 0.127 0.5078 -1.029
Downward Spiral 131 32.14 61.07% 0.518 0.7117 -0.254
Erosion of Will 95 34.78 66.32% -0.571 -0.2328 0.897
Intensifying Exploitation 83 30.07 50.6% -0.7
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 64 42.97 79.69% -0.189 -0.5527 1.548
Memory Fades to Dust 117 34.16 67.52% 0.846 1.1756 0.576
Power Corrodes the Spirit 93 31.51 60.22% 0.623
Promising Farmlands 95 39.49 64.21% 0.555 1.0028 0.155
Shattered Fragments of Power 66 40.77 62.12% 0.709 0.7085 -0.277
Slow Dissolution of Will 62 30.24 59.68% 0.945
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 54 40.39 81.48% 0.739 0.1804 0.882
The Border of Life and Death 27 23.07 33.33% -0.424 -0.6694 0.004
Thriving Communities 99 38.93 63.64% 0.066 0.3439 0.344
Thriving Crops 35 42.66 65.71% 0.245
Unnatural Proliferation 120 35.61 60.83% 0.655 0.8602 -0.166
Untended Land Crumbles 92 30.16 57.61% 0.13 0.4296 -0.307

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6942 21.83% 27.95 60.37% 0.361 1.3526 0.124
B 7028 22.3% 28.05 59.8% -0.248 0.617 -0.003
C 6917 21.98% 27.85 59.61% 0.438 1.1901 -0.19
D 7017 22.01% 27.9 59.81% -0.2 0.7452 -0.096
E 7013 21.8% 28.04 59.93% 0.062 0.8164 -0.458
F 6924 21.39% 27.69 59.82% -0.413 0.4618 0.016
G 6402 21.21% 28.56 60.51% 0.312 1.1749 -0.187
H 6350 20.91% 28.46 59.89% -0.388 0.4192 0.714

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 104 0.0% 17.79 65.38% -0.142 0.5781
Not Using Events or Tokens 291 12.5% 23.92 87.29% 0.454 0.9282
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1598 6.52% 38.64 52.88% -0.406 -1.211 -0.37
Start of Game Growth 1791 7.74% 36.25 50.92% -0.522 -1.0883 -0.399
Unlimited Undo 1713 12.1% 38.91 59.14% -0.092 -0.0648 1.0
Using Tokens but Not Events 1050 9.51% 22.58 70.95% -0.201 -0.228 0.186

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3017 12.25 5.7%
II 2172 29.91 71.55%
III 2664 34.94 93.69%
IV 1341 38.9 99.25%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2412
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1478
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1328
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2890
Lose: Invader deck ran out 22
Lose: Adversary condition 299
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 143
Win: Scenario condition 158
Lose: Blight pool ran out 251
Lose: Spirit destroyed 36

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)