Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 29 27.59% 34.59 2.139 100.0% 0.525 1.0388
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 33.33% 35.25 -5.016 83.33% -0.727 -0.2571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 14 35.71% 41.5 2.655 71.43% -0.327 0.6503
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 45.45% 42.64 72.73%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 60.0% 45.2 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 58 27.59% 88.03 2.765 81.03% -0.993 1.1818
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 47 27.66% 28.53 -2.323 93.62% 0.032 0.208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 23 21.74% 38.26 3.83 91.3% 0.396 0.1214
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 117 16.24% 47.54 4.201 94.87% 0.736 0.9852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 75 26.67% 49.53 6.052 94.67% 0.146 0.6134
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 14 35.71% 48.86 -3.603 71.43% -0.79 -0.2979
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 61.33 15.399 100.0% 0.252 1.5726
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 14 64.29% 50.0 6.541 64.29% -0.496 0.9991
The Kingdom of England 0 1 33 18.18% 35.09 -5.086 81.82% -1.019 -0.5261
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 29.86 -1.608 57.14% 0.041 0.7905
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 33.33% 40.0 -7.002 77.78% -1.192 -0.0564
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 41.18% 37.88 -0.589 50.0% -0.476 1.2123
The Kingdom of England 4 7 24 29.17% 51.92 2.314 79.17% -1.004 0.5558
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 124 21.77% 67.97 10.84 63.71% -0.575 1.9625
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 25 24.0% 31.32 -0.924 92.0% 0.464 1.205
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 22.22% 44.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20 50.0% 39.25 -0.038 70.0% -0.441 1.8685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 29 37.93% 44.62 6.154 51.72% -0.427 1.8586
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 31.25% 51.88 62.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 40.0% 47.8 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 117 35.9% 71.63 11.736 71.79% -0.572 1.5831
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 10 0.0% 22.2 -2.325 90.0% 0.131 0.2614
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 0.0% 35.5 1.886 100.0% 0.083 1.0484
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 38.0 0.379 80.0% -0.384 0.6217
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 20 35.0% 43.9 3.505 75.0% -0.202 0.6516
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 0.0% 39.0 -1.185 50.0% -0.7 0.6488
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 25.0% 63.5 20.608 75.0% 0.019 1.2611
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 61 59.02% 79.57 11.436 93.44% -0.238 1.2362
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 19 10.53% 24.84 -4.337 89.47% -0.303 -0.1024
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 41.67% 39.42 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 24 45.83% 40.13 -3.565 62.5% -0.299 0.0406
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 18 38.89% 45.78 3.733 94.44% 0.292 0.647
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 54.55% 45.82 1.9 90.91% 0.282 1.056
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 4 50.0% 46.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 56 28.57% 57.66 1.378 80.36% -1.037 0.1298
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 33 18.18% 33.15 -1.596 87.88% -0.465 -0.7448
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 20.0% 73.93 -1.284 93.33% 0.114 1.0646
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 14.29% 41.71 5.626 85.71% 0.041 0.3805
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 50.0% 39.75 -6.616 50.0% -0.587 0.4136
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 25 12.0% 54.84 6.577 88.0% 0.356 1.5507
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 41.67 -0.664 33.33% -0.689 1.1922
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 33.33% 89.73 13.853 81.82% -0.366 1.4523

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 33.33% 37.33 100.0% 0.057
Blitz 0 32 33.33% 27.25 90.63% 0.188 0.4437 -0.293
Dahan Insurrection 4 39 10.53% 68.49 94.87% 0.143 0.4445 1.077
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 45.0 100.0% 0.3 0.9114
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 315 2.86% 54.08 77.46% -0.924 -0.7303 -0.55
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 50.0% 36.33 83.33% 0.097 0.3423
Rituals of Terror 3 4 25.0% 30.25 75.0% -0.498 -1.3346
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 50.0% 55.5 100.0% 0.05 0.575
Second Wave 0 119 25.21% 33.96 94.96% 1.025 1.5974 0.389
Varied Terrains 2 8 50.0% 32.25 62.5% -0.119 0.6261
Ward the Shores 2 7 28.57% 39.57 85.71% -0.652 0.4032

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 31 32.45 67.74% -0.28 1.6297 -1.435
Aid From Lesser Spirits 39 41.33 76.92% -0.198 1.4865 0.088
All Things Weaken 24 41.21 83.33% -0.682 1.3174 0.618
Back Against the Wall 34 51.5 79.41% -0.571 1.3773 0.116
Disintegrating Ecosystem 27 34.96 70.37% -0.323 1.7423 0.175
Downward Spiral 37 36.89 72.97% -0.346 1.6171 -0.169
Erosion of Will 24 36.63 62.5% -0.687 1.4203 -0.508
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 51.7 90.0% 0.199
Memory Fades to Dust 22 38.45 77.27% -0.145 1.9127 0.456
Power Corrodes the Spirit 25 34.24 64.0% -0.302 1.677 -0.409
Promising Farmlands 25 45.04 68.0% -0.601 1.5008 0.673
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 48.08 100.0% 0.139 0.4687 0.24
Thriving Communities 21 48.71 76.19% -0.84 1.2097 0.421
Unnatural Proliferation 29 46.21 68.97% -0.427 1.5172 -0.204
Untended Land Crumbles 32 30.66 68.75% -0.115 1.9115 -0.377

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1332 23.76% 38.78 87.54% 0.092 0.8517 -0.048
B 1326 23.69% 38.84 86.88% -0.262 0.415 -0.484
C 1327 23.3% 38.45 87.49% -0.072 0.4531 -0.098
D 1340 23.61% 38.65 87.09% -0.18 0.5462 0.169
E 1358 23.23% 39.38 87.56% -0.525 0.0351 0.446
F 1327 24.46% 38.98 86.96% 0.54 1.2294 0.049
G 1220 22.48% 39.4 88.77% 0.662 1.3577 0.37
H 1204 21.32% 39.85 87.46% -0.184 0.477 -0.296

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 36 0.0% 27.14 100.0% 0.21 2.3294
Not Using Events or Tokens 142 0.0% 25.96 99.3% 1.154 1.394
Skip Initial Invader Actions 229 9.18% 64.33 85.59% 0.363 -0.0062 0.622
Start of Game Growth 246 12.68% 64.22 86.99% -0.048 -0.671 -0.414
Unlimited Undo 240 18.54% 60.8 95.83% 0.641 0.0102 2.259
Using Tokens but Not Events 225 9.52% 34.04 96.89% 0.995 1.0388 0.384

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 217 22.62 47.47%
II 622 31.05 85.69%
III 682 34.62 97.95%
IV 260 37.86 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 103
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 653
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 504
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 259
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 91
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 67
Win: Scenario condition 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)