Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 16.67% 32.33 100.0% 0.132 0.6281
Blitz 0 971 23.95% 35.78 81.46% 0.472 0.915 0.186
Dahan Insurrection 4 1813 22.46% 64.19 83.67% -0.139 -0.0413 1.082
Despicable Theft 2 74 40.54% 32.86 79.73% 0.059 0.5573 -0.659
Elemental Invocation 1 160 51.88% 34.91 66.88% -0.049 0.4967 -0.794
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7004 9.39% 51.95 82.01% -0.227 0.0047 0.747
Powers Long Forgotten 1 270 52.04% 31.24 63.7% -0.237 0.1707 -1.293
Rituals of Terror 3 185 49.44% 38.94 71.35% -0.198 -0.4337 -0.191
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 105 62.5% 38.35 67.62% -0.983 -0.7565 -0.834
Second Wave 0 3239 31.67% 30.1 86.82% -0.068 0.6241 0.615
Varied Terrains 2 10 50.0% 32.7 60.0% 0.068 0.8541
Ward the Shores 2 357 43.19% 34.8 63.87% -0.289 0.5918 -0.621

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1644 36.03 62.65% -1.087 0.8841 -0.353
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1770 37.28 64.46% -1.114 0.6638 -0.306
All Things Weaken 743 34.49 59.08% -1.035 1.0134 -0.728
Back Against the Wall 1822 36.75 60.59% -1.915 0.0239 -0.512
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1624 32.98 59.05% -0.61 1.518 -0.724
Downward Spiral 2842 31.52 63.16% -1.563 0.3983 -0.569
Erosion of Will 1605 35.45 60.25% -1.281 0.8004 -0.532
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 433 38.3 76.67% -0.297 0.2052 -0.242
Memory Fades to Dust 2958 31.82 62.91% -1.112 1.0288 -0.537
Power Corrodes the Spirit 704 34.57 59.66% -1.507 0.4735 -0.892
Promising Farmlands 1554 33.58 58.04% -1.087 0.9347 -0.712
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 305 40.67 81.31% -0.986 -0.4894 -0.113
Thriving Communities 741 32.93 57.09% -1.347 0.7126 -0.745
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.612
Unnatural Proliferation 833 35.89 61.46% -1.153 0.8039 -0.408
Untended Land Crumbles 692 33.58 57.37% -1.395 0.6381 -0.6

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 46322 31.78% 36.3 81.75% -0.052 0.6843 0.095
B 51522 31.68% 36.37 81.87% 0.061 0.7584 0.244
C 46979 31.58% 36.4 81.81% 0.114 0.5834 -0.188
D 45014 32.74% 35.66 81.56% -0.346 0.363 -0.153
E 15108 35.0% 37.29 81.19% 0.373 0.9172 0.13
F 21327 33.51% 37.14 80.97% -0.421 0.2404 -0.105
G 20463 33.52% 37.32 81.15% 0.262 0.8926 -0.209
H 20365 33.59% 37.47 81.44% 0.095 0.7597 0.155

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2677 0.0% 27.46 78.3% -3.255 -1.0264 0.434
Not Using Events or Tokens 9389 25.49% 31.02 84.83% 0.782 1.0085 0.364
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3993 7.09% 41.07 95.24% 1.667 0.6864 0.572
Start of Game Growth 5646 14.73% 42.87 87.05% 0.174 -0.2823 -0.159
Unlimited Undo 8474 24.33% 39.81 89.11% 0.907 0.3552 1.276
Using Tokens but Not Events 7294 19.79% 35.27 87.06% -0.499 -0.3438 0.546

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8900 22.65 39.01%
II 24347 31.08 78.66%
III 24046 34.66 93.4%
IV 9586 37.91 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3472
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21466
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17925
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9461
Lose: Invader deck ran out 319
Lose: Adversary condition 4647
Win: Sacrifice victory 75
Lose: Scenario condition 1466
Win: Scenario condition 2189
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5308
Lose: Spirit destroyed 551

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)