Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 25.0% 26.62 84.62% -0.183 -0.2617 -0.451
Blitz 0 1041 22.96% 36.39 81.17% 0.787 0.934 0.518
Dahan Insurrection 4 1867 22.29% 63.84 83.34% -0.09 -0.2966 1.117
Despicable Theft 2 81 38.75% 31.64 77.78% -0.863 -0.18 -0.609
Elemental Invocation 1 170 52.35% 33.84 65.29% -0.609 0.1224 -0.724
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7299 9.37% 51.71 81.74% 0.7 0.0936 0.884
Powers Long Forgotten 1 282 51.79% 31.2 62.77% -1.342 -0.8534 -1.089
Rituals of Terror 3 198 47.67% 38.43 69.7% -0.564 -0.4589 -0.034
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 120 63.03% 37.22 64.17% -0.917 0.0748 -0.727
Second Wave 0 3306 31.75% 30.04 86.57% -0.101 -0.0386 0.649
Varied Terrains 2 31 41.94% 29.61 70.97% 0.286 0.8486 -0.484
Ward the Shores 2 373 44.04% 33.88 62.2% -1.44 -0.2305 -0.552

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1708 35.93 62.53% -0.015 0.2566 -0.244
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1828 37.18 63.79% -0.739 -0.7001 -0.241
All Things Weaken 804 34.7 58.46% 0.027 0.4876 -0.635
Attenuated Essence 21 17.38 33.33% -1.127 -0.9213 -0.416
Back Against the Wall 1895 36.71 60.21% -0.262 -0.1002 -0.346
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 34.73 53.85% -0.049 0.3656 0.121
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 37.5 56.67% -0.026 0.2785 0.218
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1687 33.05 59.1% -0.062 0.465 -0.59
Downward Spiral 2966 31.27 62.68% -0.198 0.1546 -0.451
Erosion of Will 1674 35.39 59.74% -0.146 0.2625 -0.413
Intensifying Exploitation 29 27.86 48.28% -0.728 -0.3406 -0.249
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 456 38.28 76.54% 0.937 0.4119 -0.093
Memory Fades to Dust 3077 31.49 62.24% -0.718 -0.2367 -0.452
Power Corrodes the Spirit 774 34.05 58.4% -0.425 -0.1201 -0.801
Promising Farmlands 1609 33.57 57.68% -0.56 0.0265 -0.543
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 38.17 60.0% 0.397 0.5757 0.762
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 29.92 36.0% -0.776 -0.2418 -0.656
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 321 40.34 80.69% -0.03 -0.7075 0.069
The Border of Life and Death 7 40.57 85.71% 0.438 0.3089 -0.557
Thriving Communities 796 33.17 57.04% -0.48 0.0126 -0.653
Thriving Crops 18 31.56 66.67% 0.623 0.7112 -0.223
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.488
Unnatural Proliferation 897 35.86 61.65% 0.325 0.6223 -0.272
Untended Land Crumbles 744 33.4 57.12% -0.625 -0.267 -0.457

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 48730 31.66% 35.93 80.92% 0.536 1.3761 0.095
B 53936 31.51% 36.0 81.13% -0.098 0.681 0.216
C 49391 31.47% 36.02 80.97% -0.194 0.4597 -0.152
D 47295 32.57% 35.26 80.75% -0.159 0.6399 -0.172
E 16626 34.95% 36.52 79.5% -0.309 0.3197 0.131
F 22858 33.59% 36.59 79.79% -0.03 0.6896 -0.137
G 21914 33.4% 36.75 80.05% -0.273 0.4688 -0.186
H 21792 33.56% 36.95 80.44% 0.553 1.2013 0.178

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2813 0.0% 27.01 76.96% -0.72 0.1637 0.539
Not Using Events or Tokens 9984 25.14% 30.56 83.67% 0.105 0.4373 0.414
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4108 7.13% 40.85 94.72% 0.951 0.4162 0.622
Start of Game Growth 5828 14.72% 42.61 86.39% -0.418 -0.7481 -0.127
Unlimited Undo 8832 24.16% 39.44 88.44% 0.318 0.2964 1.189
Using Tokens but Not Events 7726 19.43% 34.6 86.11% 0.348 0.2936 0.512

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9995 21.03 36.5%
II 25557 31.04 78.35%
III 25220 34.74 93.27%
IV 9995 38.02 99.2%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3648
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22509
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18776
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9867
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 770
Lose: Invader deck ran out 332
Lose: Adversary condition 4856
Win: Sacrifice victory 78
Lose: Scenario condition 1498
Win: Scenario condition 2232
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5626
Lose: Spirit destroyed 575

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)