Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 20.0% 29.9 90.0% 0.279 0.0956 -0.566
Blitz 0 1008 23.28% 36.5 81.65% 1.344 1.6342 0.405
Dahan Insurrection 4 1838 22.54% 64.11 83.68% 0.29 0.1109 1.115
Despicable Theft 2 76 40.79% 32.36 78.95% -0.558 0.0974 -0.635
Elemental Invocation 1 169 52.07% 33.9 65.68% -1.082 -0.2563 -0.747
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7207 9.37% 51.86 81.91% 0.483 -0.0164 0.813
Powers Long Forgotten 1 278 51.62% 31.58 63.67% 0.184 0.5939 -1.0
Rituals of Terror 3 194 48.68% 39.07 70.62% -0.037 -0.1533 -0.036
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 115 64.04% 38.18 66.09% -0.593 0.1826 -0.755
Second Wave 0 3280 31.61% 30.08 86.77% 0.253 0.3688 0.658
Varied Terrains 2 15 33.33% 27.67 60.0% -0.534 -0.0418
Ward the Shores 2 365 43.34% 34.31 63.01% -1.09 -0.1761 -0.576

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1686 36.02 62.69% -0.492 0.1727 -0.305
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1818 37.19 63.86% -0.91 -0.4459 -0.335
All Things Weaken 784 34.99 59.18% 0.022 0.835 -0.676
Attenuated Essence 13 13.54 15.38% -1.597 -0.9514 -0.601
Back Against the Wall 1866 36.82 60.56% -0.16 0.3868 -0.413
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 38.2 70.0% 0.397 1.3162 0.307
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 36.0 58.33% -0.213 0.579 -0.092
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1670 33.04 59.22% -0.078 0.7786 -0.672
Downward Spiral 2915 31.37 63.05% -0.521 0.1578 -0.522
Erosion of Will 1642 35.56 60.35% 0.16 0.967 -0.457
Intensifying Exploitation 6 26.17 33.33% -1.334 -0.3904 0.371
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 452 38.39 76.33% 0.09 -0.1638 -0.176
Memory Fades to Dust 3035 31.65 62.67% -0.655 0.1716 -0.507
Power Corrodes the Spirit 746 34.47 59.25% -0.444 0.1941 -0.836
Promising Farmlands 1593 33.5 57.69% -0.989 -0.0942 -0.657
Shattered Fragments of Power 14 44.79 64.29% 0.132 0.7797 0.594
Slow Dissolution of Will 14 30.43 35.71% -0.462 0.5198 -0.055
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 317 40.42 80.76% -0.163 -0.6552 -0.031
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.0 100.0% 0.391 0.5971
Thriving Communities 788 33.13 57.36% -0.376 0.5061 -0.71
Thriving Crops 6 35.33 66.67% 0.482 1.0344 -0.034
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.558
Unnatural Proliferation 872 36.0 61.93% 0.285 0.9514 -0.318
Untended Land Crumbles 724 33.65 57.73% -0.464 0.2684 -0.526

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 47815 31.72% 36.14 81.4% 0.477 1.3819 0.091
B 53018 31.55% 36.2 81.57% -0.123 0.6759 0.236
C 48501 31.49% 36.23 81.44% -0.309 0.3411 -0.194
D 46402 32.61% 35.49 81.27% -0.019 0.8312 -0.145
E 16049 35.04% 36.92 80.39% -0.187 0.51 0.152
F 22307 33.65% 36.87 80.34% -0.2 0.5701 -0.115
G 21330 33.46% 37.06 80.72% -0.149 0.6245 -0.223
H 21255 33.56% 37.24 81.03% 0.561 1.2814 0.168

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2772 0.0% 27.15 77.27% -1.993 -0.7911 0.482
Not Using Events or Tokens 9751 25.36% 30.81 84.43% 0.122 0.3663 0.389
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4061 7.07% 41.02 95.08% 1.218 0.6412 0.453
Start of Game Growth 5752 14.73% 42.85 86.84% -0.029 -0.4879 -0.169
Unlimited Undo 8695 24.27% 39.69 88.99% 0.836 0.6577 1.3
Using Tokens but Not Events 7567 19.52% 34.84 86.52% -0.1 -0.1388 0.559

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9494 21.84 38.01%
II 25137 31.08 78.56%
III 24797 34.71 93.34%
IV 9865 37.98 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3609
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22145
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18507
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9737
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 329
Lose: Invader deck ran out 327
Lose: Adversary condition 4790
Win: Sacrifice victory 76
Lose: Scenario condition 1489
Win: Scenario condition 2212
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5502
Lose: Spirit destroyed 570

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)