Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 248 36.69% 27.08 -2.659 78.63% -1.024 -0.7437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 142 41.55% 32.19 -0.004 85.21% -0.457 -0.0839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 211 52.61% 40.39 4.05 82.94% -0.507 0.3406
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 308 51.15% 39.44 3.146 69.48% -1.492 -0.254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 140 84.67% 36.56 2.301 44.29% -1.926 -0.4038
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 57 73.68% 38.77 3.435 42.11% -2.12 -0.0917
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 284 85.82% 36.52 2.555 29.58% -2.814 -0.7218
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1098 24.0% 26.11 -2.927 92.71% 0.178 0.2255
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 845 27.12% 31.84 -0.263 91.72% 0.038 0.0094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1361 30.4% 40.86 4.278 91.11% 0.021 0.0184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1445 34.64% 49.05 7.904 91.21% 0.06 0.3438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 937 36.36% 50.73 8.792 89.97% -0.091 0.2867
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 377 51.23% 53.42 10.419 77.45% -0.825 0.0088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1084 66.48% 51.47 9.37 63.84% -1.485 -0.2362
The Kingdom of England 0 1 859 22.95% 25.51 -3.367 85.22% -0.71 -0.377
The Kingdom of England 1 3 474 31.32% 34.52 0.778 83.12% -0.765 -0.2824
The Kingdom of England 2 4 805 39.11% 34.78 1.133 71.8% -1.402 -0.445
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1089 47.55% 38.12 2.019 58.13% -2.08 -0.503
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2634 18.48% 51.01 7.293 76.77% -1.484 0.038
The Kingdom of England 5 9 497 36.34% 48.7 6.861 54.73% -2.439 -0.3748
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1973 39.62% 53.31 9.763 57.88% -2.31 -0.0541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 628 33.65% 29.57 -1.561 84.24% -0.613 -0.0883
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 305 53.33% 31.71 -0.493 73.11% -1.063 -0.1718
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 804 42.7% 38.12 2.15 62.44% -1.875 0.253
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 792 49.29% 44.48 5.323 61.74% -1.864 0.322
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 826 43.84% 51.06 8.087 66.1% -1.802 0.3436
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 751 49.4% 59.18 12.022 76.7% -0.972 0.8466
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1962 50.23% 57.16 11.307 61.72% -1.856 0.279
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 630 25.4% 25.25 -3.491 92.54% 0.14 0.2252
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 430 28.88% 30.96 -0.851 89.07% -0.202 -0.1927
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 945 30.79% 33.89 0.989 90.37% -0.01 0.2074
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 796 40.48% 43.72 5.606 89.32% -0.031 0.2533
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 510 59.84% 40.5 3.778 70.59% -1.083 -0.306
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 210 49.04% 45.62 6.082 73.81% -1.075 0.09
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1511 56.44% 47.57 7.035 70.62% -1.263 -0.1309
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 119 19.33% 26.95 -3.299 93.28% -0.044 -0.1615
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 79 39.24% 36.46 1.439 91.14% 0.031 0.7195
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 119 34.45% 40.42 3.608 92.44% 0.116 0.5517
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 106 55.77% 43.64 5.094 75.47% -1.043 0.2322
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 75 48.0% 47.09 6.536 72.0% -1.265 -0.1073
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 80 83.75% 36.49 1.905 27.5% -2.807 -0.7711
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 222 81.98% 47.7 7.388 39.64% -2.473 -0.5236

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 807 23.13% 32.13 -1.489 84.14% -0.265 0.3072
Dahan Insurrection 4 1615 22.81% 62.59 12.794 84.58% 0.123 0.5239
Elemental Invocation 1 33 45.45% 35.61 -0.106 75.76% -0.43 0.0356
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5785 9.45% 49.65 5.561 79.69% -0.29 0.0854
Powers Long Forgotten 1 296 54.92% 32.82 -0.698 66.89% -0.876 -0.4291
Rituals of Terror 3 209 46.31% 39.8 3.235 70.81% -0.696 -0.0744
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 126 63.71% 37.48 1.541 67.46% -0.632 -0.008
Second Wave 0 2947 32.47% 31.11 -0.74 86.6% -0.15 0.2686
Ward the Shores 2 322 38.11% 36.01 0.242 64.29% -1.25 -0.2196

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1169 35.53 -1.15 62.62% -1.454 0.6142
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1217 37.17 -0.298 63.27% -1.39 0.5264
All Things Weaken 339 32.65 -2.39 55.46% -1.836 0.3241
Back Against the Wall 1283 36.75 -0.674 60.95% -1.485 0.6076
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1129 31.96 -2.981 56.78% -1.731 0.4908
Downward Spiral 1995 31.21 -2.487 62.61% -1.708 0.3059
Erosion of Will 1057 34.03 -1.86 58.85% -1.677 0.5341
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 178 36.51 -0.568 70.22% -1.102 -0.3897
Memory Fades to Dust 2080 31.59 -2.343 62.07% -1.687 0.5284
Power Corrodes the Spirit 327 33.39 -1.76 60.55% -1.513 0.5066
Promising Farmlands 1085 32.89 -2.497 56.87% -1.746 0.4687
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 117 38.25 0.461 78.63% -0.591 -0.1736
Thriving Communities 362 31.51 -2.68 57.18% -1.744 0.3629
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.033 55.23% -1.734 0.4816
Unnatural Proliferation 380 33.34 -1.755 58.42% -1.732 0.3488
Untended Land Crumbles 341 32.57 -2.498 54.25% -1.815 0.2799

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 32219 31.97% 35.88 -0.139 81.22% -0.028 -1.1008
B 36624 32.08% 36.05 -0.035 81.36% 0.224 -0.9404
C 32565 31.78% 36.08 0.102 81.27% -0.076 -1.4732
D 31781 33.01% 35.46 -0.724 80.99% -0.217 -1.375
E 6924 34.2% 37.33 0.376 80.94% 0.321 -0.9359
F 12201 32.69% 37.22 -0.034 80.69% -0.129 -1.3546
G 11992 33.32% 37.26 0.243 80.32% -0.062 -1.2747
H 11786 33.12% 37.52 0.34 80.92% 0.045 -1.1763

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1877 0.0% 27.29 -3.87 77.57% -1.967 0.0716
Not Using Events or Tokens 6485 25.5% 30.5 -1.647 85.32% 0.111 0.3316
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2809 6.16% 41.95 2.797 95.94% 1.671 0.9648
Start of Game Growth 4019 14.13% 42.44 2.432 86.41% -0.261 -0.7197
Unlimited Undo 5697 22.33% 39.77 1.879 88.63% 0.571 0.1684
Using Tokens but Not Events 4783 22.22% 35.69 -0.495 85.51% 0.267 0.2211

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5932 22.34 37.47%
II 16111 30.71 78.21%
III 15902 34.23 93.4%
IV 6078 37.48 99.06%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1656
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10192
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8443
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4321
Lose: Invader deck ran out 192
Lose: Adversary condition 3051
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Scenario condition 1097
Win: Scenario condition 1573
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3607
Lose: Spirit destroyed 379

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)