Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 74 34.25% 28.04 63.51% -0.843 -0.4728 -0.173
Blitz 0 1493 21.43% 36.18 77.29% 0.174 0.6059 0.34
Dahan Insurrection 4 2799 18.93% 54.96 74.53% 0.986 0.9596 1.768
Despicable Theft 2 171 35.29% 23.63 53.8% -0.494 0.1653 -0.534
Elemental Invocation 1 288 48.61% 29.57 59.72% -0.044 0.4034 0.389
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9894 9.31% 49.37 78.81% 0.745 0.1452 0.984
Powers Long Forgotten 1 454 47.11% 25.93 53.3% -0.928 -0.3196 -0.241
Rituals of Terror 3 448 33.03% 25.25 46.65% 0.349 0.4736 -1.137
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 177 60.23% 31.68 57.06% 0.271 1.0088 -0.661
Second Wave 0 4493 30.22% 28.59 82.24% 0.617 0.7228 0.682
Varied Terrains 2 167 48.8% 25.29 59.88% 0.191 0.9277 -0.73
Ward the Shores 2 708 31.69% 22.95 42.8% -1.807 -1.1251 -0.558

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2345 34.89 59.66% 0.326 0.6367 0.774
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2413 36.95 63.37% -0.497 -0.4835 1.485
All Things Weaken 1307 32.74 54.17% -0.687 -0.2131 0.497
Attenuated Essence 379 31.85 54.88% 0.025 0.1717 0.605
Back Against the Wall 2478 36.36 61.1% 0.622 0.751 1.203
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 390 34.62 60.0% 0.564 0.8843 0.699
Burn Brightest Before the End 405 35.26 55.31% -0.068 0.1094 0.607
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2222 32.16 57.52% 0.358 0.7382 0.545
Downward Spiral 4394 29.03 59.74% 0.351 0.5441 1.005
Erosion of Will 2195 33.87 57.36% 0.004 0.3422 0.274
Intensifying Exploitation 358 28.34 49.44% -0.446 -0.0929 0.184
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 743 35.74 72.41% -0.777 -1.14 0.488
Memory Fades to Dust 4526 29.29 58.82% -0.254 0.0757 1.243
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1337 32.0 56.77% 0.023 0.2897 0.751
Promising Farmlands 2233 32.65 56.38% 0.166 0.6139 0.754
Shattered Fragments of Power 410 33.93 54.63% 1.547 1.5463 0.34
Slow Dissolution of Will 427 29.31 44.5% -0.35 0.0616 0.198
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 499 38.05 76.35% 0.377 -0.1815 1.206
The Border of Life and Death 140 33.14 65.71% 0.84 0.5949 0.746
Thriving Communities 1419 32.07 55.39% -1.084 -0.8062 0.304
Thriving Crops 251 30.21 60.96% -0.156 -0.251 -0.061
Tipping Point 622 34.17 55.14%
Unnatural Proliferation 1445 34.7 58.82% -0.155 0.0497 0.742
Untended Land Crumbles 1237 31.66 54.73% -0.171 0.1288 0.18

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 76598 29.95% 31.19 70.49% 0.088 1.0792 0.097
B 84104 29.51% 30.94 69.88% -0.224 0.6406 0.119
C 77289 29.67% 31.34 70.58% -0.284 0.4679 0.218
D 74037 30.58% 30.38 70.02% 0.296 1.2405 -0.506
E 31823 33.94% 31.38 68.7% -0.007 0.7477 0.15
F 39461 32.5% 30.96 68.14% 0.309 1.1834 -0.529
G 37960 32.31% 30.97 68.41% -0.073 0.7899 0.223
H 37745 32.25% 31.18 68.44% -0.036 0.7714 0.192

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4539 0.0% 21.19 65.15% 0.654 1.3741
Not Using Events or Tokens 17445 24.38% 24.92 68.07% 0.071 0.5454 0.002
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5546 6.69% 37.93 86.98% 0.302 -0.5026 -0.432
Start of Game Growth 7617 13.83% 39.87 80.62% 0.066 -0.5011 0.808
Unlimited Undo 15966 20.54% 30.69 67.76% 0.775 0.8028 0.198
Using Tokens but Not Events 12031 20.65% 30.48 77.54% 0.757 0.7294 1.212

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 27494 12.25 17.81%
II 36230 29.91 74.08%
III 36512 34.94 92.58%
IV 14892 38.9 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4898
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 32460
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 25319
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14675
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 16764
Lose: Invader deck ran out 448
Lose: Adversary condition 6905
Win: Sacrifice victory 127
Lose: Scenario condition 1863
Win: Scenario condition 2831
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8007
Lose: Spirit destroyed 831

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)