Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 31 36.67% 30.19 80.65% -0.402 -0.4518 0.03
Blitz 0 1280 21.15% 38.08 80.94% 1.556 1.8165 1.336
Dahan Insurrection 4 2193 21.48% 59.48 77.66% 0.709 0.5524 1.658
Despicable Theft 2 133 32.58% 24.74 57.89% -1.722 -0.9177 -1.614
Elemental Invocation 1 214 51.4% 31.2 60.75% 0.418 1.3015 -0.817
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8396 9.21% 50.4 80.12% 0.378 -0.1832 1.416
Powers Long Forgotten 1 353 50.0% 28.63 58.36% 0.095 0.9875 -0.997
Rituals of Terror 3 254 47.58% 36.09 65.75% -0.402 -0.522 0.024
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 142 61.7% 34.51 61.27% 0.859 1.721 -0.5
Second Wave 0 3877 30.35% 29.19 84.03% 0.326 0.4083 0.938
Varied Terrains 2 86 40.7% 25.44 65.12% -0.124 0.6565 -0.126
Ward the Shores 2 592 32.99% 24.59 45.44% -1.54 -0.4791 -1.54

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1945 35.63 61.34% 0.186 0.3304 0.562
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2080 36.99 63.75% 0.782 0.6782 0.625
All Things Weaken 1015 33.52 56.26% -0.62 -0.316 0.026
Attenuated Essence 151 31.57 56.29% 0.629 0.6514 0.409
Back Against the Wall 2108 36.58 60.39% 1.293 1.3407 0.532
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 157 32.58 56.69% 1.092 1.2975 -0.123
Burn Brightest Before the End 187 35.09 56.15% -0.113 0.0635 0.076
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1900 32.63 58.68% 0.064 0.4834 0.333
Downward Spiral 3589 29.84 60.96% 0.159 0.2267 0.372
Erosion of Will 1889 34.67 58.97% 0.757 1.0499 0.327
Intensifying Exploitation 135 30.81 53.33% 0.277 0.5715 0.322
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 573 36.74 73.47% 0.611 0.1353 0.259
Memory Fades to Dust 3644 30.46 60.7% 0.292 0.5139 0.345
Power Corrodes the Spirit 989 32.79 57.23% 0.717 0.8927 -0.194
Promising Farmlands 1886 33.14 57.16% 0.658 0.9613 0.244
Shattered Fragments of Power 159 33.77 59.12% 0.369 0.5579 0.543
Slow Dissolution of Will 173 29.04 47.4% 0.406 0.7755 -0.65
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 378 38.93 76.98% 0.69 -0.0636 0.599
The Border of Life and Death 55 26.49 56.36% -0.323 -0.8853 -1.484
Thriving Communities 1048 32.12 55.25% 0.899 1.2059 -0.001
Thriving Crops 115 31.87 62.61% -0.148 -0.1192 -0.432
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% 0.459
Unnatural Proliferation 1136 35.3 60.48% 0.293 0.4462 0.388
Untended Land Crumbles 992 32.35 55.95% -0.121 0.2363 0.201

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60138 30.75% 33.32 75.1% -0.101 0.7674 0.08
B 66807 30.19% 32.97 74.3% 0.025 0.8581 -0.02
C 60889 30.56% 33.41 75.1% 0.154 0.8424 -0.045
D 58592 31.44% 32.56 74.69% -0.076 0.7635 -0.083
E 22630 34.47% 33.66 73.74% 0.188 0.8906 0.055
F 29653 32.47% 33.12 72.81% -0.126 0.6919 -0.021
G 28813 32.08% 33.06 72.75% 0.167 1.0244 -0.108
H 28710 32.28% 33.22 72.65% -0.168 0.6171 0.105

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3558 0.0% 23.96 70.32% -0.386 0.3493 1.061
Not Using Events or Tokens 12784 25.24% 27.77 75.59% 0.346 0.7729 0.544
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4782 7.03% 39.36 90.4% -0.077 -0.6866 1.301
Start of Game Growth 6640 14.14% 41.02 83.31% 0.631 0.024 0.498
Unlimited Undo 12505 20.7% 32.43 72.31% -0.126 -0.1233 -0.256
Using Tokens but Not Events 9519 20.04% 32.02 81.14% 0.512 0.5222 0.224

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17852 15.56 23.07%
II 29655 30.46 76.37%
III 29771 34.8 92.91%
IV 11998 38.44 99.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4119
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26555
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21322
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11813
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8003
Lose: Invader deck ran out 384
Lose: Adversary condition 5682
Win: Sacrifice victory 95
Lose: Scenario condition 1640
Win: Scenario condition 2414
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6571
Lose: Spirit destroyed 678

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-10 06:17:01 (Pacific Time)