Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 307 33.88% 27.53 -2.429 80.78% -0.905 -0.627
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 186 38.17% 32.9 0.366 87.1% -0.33 0.0637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 291 51.2% 39.82 3.827 81.44% -0.607 0.2717
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 382 51.19% 40.22 3.582 72.51% -1.282 -0.0303
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 181 76.4% 38.64 3.019 49.17% -1.821 -0.2993
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 74 74.32% 37.59 2.741 39.19% -2.278 -0.301
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 332 86.02% 37.4 3.013 31.93% -2.622 -0.572
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1294 23.39% 26.11 -2.944 92.89% 0.209 0.2494
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 972 28.26% 31.55 -0.352 91.46% 0.047 0.0177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1560 30.83% 40.78 4.277 91.67% 0.131 0.1358
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1635 36.15% 48.43 7.706 90.4% 0.02 0.3083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1086 36.63% 50.42 8.72 89.96% -0.063 0.3041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 428 48.32% 53.74 10.472 78.04% -0.804 0.0257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1250 67.14% 52.02 9.564 64.72% -1.419 -0.1774
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1037 22.47% 25.45 -3.422 85.15% -0.712 -0.3798
The Kingdom of England 1 3 562 33.39% 33.92 0.558 81.32% -0.837 -0.3329
The Kingdom of England 2 4 913 40.99% 34.26 0.905 70.43% -1.431 -0.4631
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1309 47.58% 37.93 1.914 58.37% -2.041 -0.4632
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3030 18.29% 51.27 7.333 77.56% -1.444 0.054
The Kingdom of England 5 9 582 34.39% 50.69 7.899 58.08% -2.357 -0.2902
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2259 38.59% 53.58 9.816 58.34% -2.287 -0.0316
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 735 34.88% 29.38 -1.635 84.63% -0.536 -0.0215
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 344 53.69% 31.41 -0.632 73.26% -1.032 -0.1364
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 879 43.04% 37.87 2.075 62.12% -1.872 0.265
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 872 49.71% 44.38 5.29 62.04% -1.839 0.3464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 917 44.85% 51.22 8.214 67.07% -1.725 0.4213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 814 50.74% 58.99 11.936 76.41% -0.955 0.8648
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2381 48.69% 58.0 11.536 62.54% -1.825 0.2815
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 736 26.1% 25.21 -3.444 92.66% 0.215 0.2994
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 478 30.84% 30.68 -0.959 88.49% -0.206 -0.1847
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1030 32.28% 33.58 0.865 89.22% -0.063 0.1682
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 878 41.26% 43.58 5.559 89.52% 0.021 0.3067
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 563 59.89% 40.44 3.842 71.23% -1.035 -0.2579
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 220 49.54% 45.64 6.085 74.09% -1.041 0.1159
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1812 56.81% 46.79 6.636 68.76% -1.339 -0.2076
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 171 19.88% 26.28 -3.505 92.98% -0.031 -0.1368
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 121 44.63% 35.59 1.12 86.78% -0.255 0.4885
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 159 35.85% 40.3 3.605 92.45% 0.155 0.5865
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 169 56.29% 43.99 5.498 77.51% -0.903 0.3463
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 98 53.06% 48.21 7.375 76.53% -0.966 0.1603
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 97 85.57% 37.96 2.927 31.96% -2.488 -0.4697
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 289 76.24% 50.03 8.249 42.56% -2.411 -0.5057

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 860 23.97% 32.07 -1.469 84.19% -0.266 0.3075
Dahan Insurrection 4 1858 23.13% 62.92 12.81 83.69% 0.025 0.4251
Despicable Theft 2 27 29.63% 34.26 0.921 88.89% -0.336 -0.0539
Elemental Invocation 1 97 50.52% 35.76 -0.38 69.07% -0.61 -0.1709
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6783 9.5% 49.95 5.647 79.94% -0.288 0.0773
Powers Long Forgotten 1 337 54.76% 32.25 -1.0 64.99% -1.01 -0.5689
Rituals of Terror 3 231 48.0% 39.13 2.902 70.13% -0.773 -0.1294
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 132 63.85% 37.15 1.415 68.18% -0.641 0.0005
Second Wave 0 3438 32.47% 30.83 -0.871 86.21% -0.202 0.2263
Ward the Shores 2 371 40.73% 35.28 -0.01 61.46% -1.439 -0.4014

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1323 35.54 -1.109 62.66% -1.456 0.6176
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1398 36.77 -0.452 63.52% -1.414 0.5049
All Things Weaken 481 32.75 -2.304 56.13% -1.85 0.3088
Back Against the Wall 1467 36.72 -0.677 61.35% -1.495 0.5989
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1280 32.04 -2.889 57.66% -1.705 0.5194
Downward Spiral 2262 31.11 -2.522 62.69% -1.711 0.3101
Erosion of Will 1205 34.2 -1.808 59.09% -1.661 0.5477
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 259 37.71 0.036 75.29% -0.849 -0.1562
Memory Fades to Dust 2374 31.33 -2.435 61.79% -1.713 0.5049
Power Corrodes the Spirit 439 33.42 -1.894 59.23% -1.601 0.4204
Promising Farmlands 1242 32.92 -2.44 57.25% -1.743 0.4714
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 172 39.46 0.803 80.81% -0.535 -0.124
Thriving Communities 502 32.97 -2.193 58.17% -1.678 0.4151
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.027 55.23% -1.738 0.4879
Unnatural Proliferation 531 33.32 -1.832 58.38% -1.781 0.3086
Untended Land Crumbles 441 32.28 -2.643 53.97% -1.886 0.2195

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 36660 32.12% 35.89 -0.105 81.24% 0.012 -1.0997
B 41315 32.1% 36.07 -0.026 81.39% 0.139 -1.0693
C 37034 31.96% 36.06 0.07 81.26% -0.038 -1.4773
D 35945 33.13% 35.42 -0.688 81.04% -0.195 -1.3963
E 9421 35.21% 37.14 0.256 80.56% 0.201 -1.1116
F 15017 33.2% 37.15 -0.075 80.7% -0.13 -1.3959
G 14683 33.54% 37.35 0.294 80.64% 0.003 -1.2544
H 14429 33.42% 37.49 0.354 81.11% 0.079 -1.1866

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2189 0.0% 27.58 -3.712 78.35% -1.894 0.1605
Not Using Events or Tokens 7300 25.95% 30.38 -1.654 84.84% 0.057 0.2749
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3218 7.33% 41.31 2.507 94.9% 1.3 0.6068
Start of Game Growth 4611 14.32% 42.28 2.397 86.47% -0.193 -0.6555
Unlimited Undo 6563 23.29% 39.8 1.93 88.54% 0.619 0.1983
Using Tokens but Not Events 5466 21.71% 36.06 -0.332 86.13% 0.319 0.2668

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6873 22.34 37.65%
II 18642 30.81 78.25%
III 18367 34.31 93.19%
IV 7244 37.5 99.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2021
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12347
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10325
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5474
Lose: Invader deck ran out 240
Lose: Adversary condition 3496
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Scenario condition 1261
Win: Scenario condition 1783
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4213
Lose: Spirit destroyed 445

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)