Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 426 31.46% 28.4 -0.01 81.22% 0.048 0.6153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 257 37.89% 33.11 -3.087 84.82% -1.26 -0.5709
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 434 50.69% 40.2 4.014 80.88% 0.374 1.4209
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 505 54.38% 40.07 4.51 71.88% -0.727 0.6616
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 234 78.7% 39.75 0.888 51.71% -1.098 0.6059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 104 74.04% 39.33 11.023 43.27% 0.254 1.8525
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 499 84.27% 38.85 6.054 32.06% -1.667 0.5244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1597 23.0% 26.53 -3.149 92.8% -0.634 -0.3464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1312 28.29% 31.85 -1.973 91.77% 0.148 -0.0693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2088 30.45% 41.79 4.246 91.91% -0.15 0.0625
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2084 34.86% 48.58 7.695 91.22% 0.33 0.8263
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1379 37.81% 50.23 6.522 88.91% -0.434 0.1034
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 537 49.62% 54.14 10.53 79.52% -0.249 0.9297
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1487 66.99% 52.91 9.144 65.37% -1.248 0.3249
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1293 22.28% 26.01 -2.345 85.46% -0.372 0.0433
The Kingdom of England 1 3 722 33.1% 33.68 -1.267 80.33% -1.123 -0.4102
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1186 41.98% 34.38 1.115 70.83% -0.558 0.4703
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1623 47.64% 38.08 1.931 58.23% -1.999 -0.3404
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3812 18.6% 51.57 7.461 78.38% -0.84 0.7782
The Kingdom of England 5 9 739 31.29% 52.65 9.371 61.03% -1.961 0.0941
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2926 37.37% 54.99 9.195 60.42% -1.764 0.6413
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 868 35.29% 29.43 -2.716 83.64% -0.844 -0.0413
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 462 51.42% 31.91 -0.64 74.03% -0.039 0.8341
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1152 42.64% 38.49 2.168 62.67% -1.191 1.0799
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1034 50.64% 44.19 5.036 60.83% -1.14 1.1916
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1113 46.54% 50.83 7.468 66.13% -1.485 0.9218
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 978 51.64% 58.84 9.087 75.87% -1.495 0.3683
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3076 48.1% 59.05 10.844 63.52% -1.705 0.6096
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 42 11.9% 28.17 -3.331 90.48% -0.217 -0.3684
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 27 18.52% 33.78 -1.687 85.19% -0.889 -0.0033
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 39 33.33% 39.1 2.222 94.87% 0.245 1.2209
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 56 51.79% 47.75 5.365 85.71% -0.486 0.2331
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 17 58.82% 52.35 8.778 94.12% -0.147 1.1453
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 27 77.78% 54.44 9.624 92.59% -0.068 1.3272
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 132 62.12% 62.11 7.937 71.97% -1.406 0.233
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 930 27.01% 25.37 -4.398 91.51% -0.633 -0.5006
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 630 30.68% 30.87 -3.19 88.89% -0.386 -0.425
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1247 33.58% 33.52 1.762 88.69% 0.95 1.4289
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1138 42.5% 43.36 2.832 89.46% -0.577 -0.3044
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 671 58.97% 41.0 1.536 72.13% -1.009 -0.1717
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 251 50.0% 45.34 4.071 73.31% -0.636 0.2369
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2241 55.73% 48.02 6.047 70.15% -0.763 0.4565
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 331 22.96% 28.43 -1.167 90.33% 0.014 -0.12
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 177 45.2% 35.49 -1.595 83.05% -0.847 -0.0695
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 276 31.64% 41.32 4.6 92.03% 0.703 1.1807
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 234 58.87% 44.32 8.152 76.92% -0.176 1.0027
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 164 53.55% 51.92 21.783 81.1% 0.179 1.5144
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 129 86.82% 38.83 17.826 34.88% 0.169 2.0189
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 453 75.79% 51.75 15.153 41.94% -0.482 1.4281

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 25.0% 32.25 100.0% 0.306 0.4145
Blitz 0 924 24.53% 34.8 81.28% -0.755 -0.4876 -0.158
Dahan Insurrection 4 1771 22.49% 64.18 83.68% -0.667 -0.3347 1.13
Despicable Theft 2 72 41.67% 32.82 79.17% -0.47 -0.2192 -0.68
Elemental Invocation 1 152 51.97% 34.72 67.11% -0.523 0.1256 -0.867
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6808 9.32% 51.94 81.9% -0.213 -0.0475 0.764
Powers Long Forgotten 1 262 52.87% 31.15 62.98% -0.19 0.1363 -1.271
Rituals of Terror 3 180 49.71% 39.01 71.11% 0.084 -0.0253 -0.18
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 99 61.22% 39.04 68.69% 0.371 1.0278 -0.788
Second Wave 0 3161 31.66% 29.99 86.78% -0.525 -0.0538 0.48
Varied Terrains 2 8 50.0% 30.5 62.5% -0.645 -0.1091
Ward the Shores 2 347 43.28% 34.8 63.4% -1.042 0.1455 -0.554

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1591 35.93 62.6% -1.147 0.6846 -0.333
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1722 37.0 64.4% -0.578 1.0768 -0.254
All Things Weaken 715 33.83 58.46% -0.626 1.3501 -0.797
Back Against the Wall 1770 36.72 60.73% -1.455 0.4036 -0.468
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1571 32.72 58.5% -1.653 0.3219 -0.746
Downward Spiral 2768 31.42 63.26% -1.19 0.7121 -0.508
Erosion of Will 1535 35.09 60.13% -1.137 0.9065 -0.535
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 400 38.52 75.75% -0.969 -0.3964 -0.203
Memory Fades to Dust 2886 31.76 62.61% -1.103 0.8768 -0.514
Power Corrodes the Spirit 659 34.42 59.94% -0.681 1.2112 -0.846
Promising Farmlands 1511 33.41 58.04% -1.242 0.7971 -0.715
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 283 40.47 82.33% -1.21 -0.7689 0.018
Thriving Communities 706 32.67 57.22% -1.308 0.6564 -0.691
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.594
Unnatural Proliferation 803 35.7 61.52% -0.881 1.0247 -0.393
Untended Land Crumbles 665 33.72 57.14% -0.671 1.3634 -0.616

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 44959 31.82% 36.26 81.73% 0.365 1.1329 0.081
B 50120 31.69% 36.35 81.9% 0.135 0.8279 0.247
C 45560 31.6% 36.38 81.8% -0.146 0.4181 -0.162
D 43746 32.81% 35.66 81.53% -0.614 0.1541 -0.172
E 14293 35.15% 37.23 81.04% 0.247 0.8463 0.131
F 20489 33.35% 37.09 81.05% -0.39 0.3195 -0.121
G 19699 33.5% 37.29 81.15% 0.299 1.0249 -0.185
H 19576 33.5% 37.46 81.47% 0.159 0.849 0.151

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2577 0.0% 27.82 79.36% -1.095 0.9167 0.451
Not Using Events or Tokens 9056 25.84% 30.98 84.66% 0.393 0.6075 0.365
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3910 7.16% 41.11 95.19% 0.656 0.5621 0.38
Start of Game Growth 5542 14.87% 42.88 86.97% 0.692 -0.0152 -0.148
Unlimited Undo 8192 24.34% 39.89 88.94% 0.614 -0.0861 1.274
Using Tokens but Not Events 7055 19.99% 35.65 87.41% 0.46 0.4142 0.566

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8520 22.6 38.6%
II 23555 31.02 78.59%
III 23278 34.59 93.37%
IV 9336 37.83 99.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3289
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20761
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17314
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9213
Lose: Invader deck ran out 309
Lose: Adversary condition 4488
Win: Sacrifice victory 70
Lose: Scenario condition 1442
Win: Scenario condition 2146
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5121
Lose: Spirit destroyed 536

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)