Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 23.08% 24.71 78.57% -0.344 -0.5312 -0.863
Blitz 0 1051 22.74% 36.35 81.26% 0.757 0.9073 0.533
Dahan Insurrection 4 1873 22.22% 63.77 83.24% -0.063 -0.2917 1.122
Despicable Theft 2 81 38.75% 31.64 77.78% -0.781 -0.0401 -0.597
Elemental Invocation 1 171 52.05% 33.88 64.91% -0.941 -0.166 -0.78
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7325 9.39% 51.65 81.64% 0.64 0.0196 0.89
Powers Long Forgotten 1 284 51.42% 31.11 62.68% -1.074 -0.5724 -1.15
Rituals of Terror 3 199 47.42% 38.24 69.35% -0.633 -0.5698 -0.018
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 121 63.33% 37.02 63.64% -0.987 0.0539 -0.733
Second Wave 0 3316 31.78% 30.04 86.52% -0.06 -0.002 0.653
Varied Terrains 2 37 45.95% 29.68 70.27% 0.285 0.7894 -0.481
Ward the Shores 2 376 43.96% 33.69 61.97% -1.474 -0.3 -0.576

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1713 35.97 62.58% 0.24 0.4874 -0.227
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1837 37.09 63.58% -0.63 -0.6447 -0.225
All Things Weaken 811 34.75 58.32% -0.068 0.3573 -0.583
Attenuated Essence 25 22.32 44.0% -0.619 -0.4569 -0.294
Back Against the Wall 1900 36.69 60.21% -0.172 -0.0641 -0.344
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 29 33.03 48.28% -0.173 0.1899 -0.541
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 36.29 54.84% -0.044 0.2233 0.19
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1693 33.1 59.18% 0.187 0.6634 -0.568
Downward Spiral 2985 31.22 62.65% -0.055 0.2489 -0.431
Erosion of Will 1676 35.35 59.67% -0.086 0.2802 -0.409
Intensifying Exploitation 30 27.53 46.67% -0.725 -0.3728 -0.257
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 462 38.45 76.84% 1.381 0.8693 -0.085
Memory Fades to Dust 3085 31.5 62.27% -0.68 -0.2448 -0.438
Power Corrodes the Spirit 778 33.93 58.23% -0.729 -0.4673 -0.79
Promising Farmlands 1616 33.54 57.61% -0.294 0.2298 -0.528
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 38.17 60.0% 0.468 0.5847 0.724
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 28.25 35.71% -0.732 -0.2491 -0.64
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 325 40.35 80.62% 0.03 -0.5958 0.079
The Border of Life and Death 7 40.57 85.71% 0.47 0.2189 -0.567
Thriving Communities 798 33.16 57.02% -0.481 -0.048 -0.635
Thriving Crops 19 32.32 68.42% 0.736 0.7258 -0.198
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.481
Unnatural Proliferation 901 35.85 61.49% 0.256 0.5171 -0.274
Untended Land Crumbles 745 33.4 57.05% -0.488 -0.1718 -0.454

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 48956 31.63% 35.88 80.79% 0.494 1.3536 0.089
B 54154 31.5% 35.95 81.01% 0.003 0.8168 0.216
C 49600 31.46% 35.97 80.85% -0.302 0.3858 -0.152
D 47501 32.56% 35.21 80.63% -0.204 0.6314 -0.163
E 16769 34.92% 36.47 79.37% -0.135 0.5176 0.126
F 22992 33.57% 36.55 79.68% -0.048 0.7041 -0.125
G 22047 33.38% 36.69 79.94% -0.316 0.4556 -0.193
H 21922 33.56% 36.91 80.34% 0.536 1.2191 0.175

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2824 0.0% 26.96 76.88% -0.415 0.4294 0.643
Not Using Events or Tokens 10038 25.09% 30.48 83.49% 0.099 0.4248 0.41
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4121 7.11% 40.82 94.69% 0.842 0.2486 0.736
Start of Game Growth 5859 14.66% 42.5 86.19% -0.526 -0.7946 -0.254
Unlimited Undo 8876 24.13% 39.36 88.27% 0.197 0.1932 1.126
Using Tokens but Not Events 7751 19.39% 34.54 85.98% 0.289 0.2284 0.497

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10131 20.88 36.16%
II 25655 31.03 78.33%
III 25311 34.74 93.27%
IV 10022 38.02 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3663
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22592
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18845
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9892
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 885
Lose: Invader deck ran out 332
Lose: Adversary condition 4867
Win: Sacrifice victory 79
Lose: Scenario condition 1504
Win: Scenario condition 2236
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5641
Lose: Spirit destroyed 583

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-02 03:54:23 (Pacific Time)