Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 23.08% 24.71 78.57% -0.314 -0.58 -0.851
Blitz 0 1054 22.67% 36.37 81.21% 0.659 0.8157 0.527
Dahan Insurrection 4 1882 22.11% 63.53 82.89% -0.125 -0.393 1.088
Despicable Theft 2 81 38.75% 31.64 77.78% -0.741 0.0215 -0.587
Elemental Invocation 1 171 52.05% 33.88 64.91% -0.626 0.1345 -0.758
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7338 9.37% 51.6 81.56% 0.619 -0.0135 0.9
Powers Long Forgotten 1 286 51.41% 31.09 62.59% -0.837 -0.3036 -1.15
Rituals of Terror 3 201 47.96% 38.2 69.65% -0.402 -0.2991 -0.023
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 122 62.81% 36.71 63.11% -1.216 -0.2101 -0.735
Second Wave 0 3327 31.82% 30.04 86.53% 0.262 0.3278 0.653
Varied Terrains 2 38 44.74% 28.89 68.42% 0.207 0.7857 -0.49
Ward the Shores 2 377 43.84% 33.69 62.07% -1.153 0.0019 -0.566

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1715 35.97 62.62% 0.24 0.4297 -0.198
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1845 37.1 63.52% -0.369 -0.4335 -0.205
All Things Weaken 814 34.68 58.23% -0.08 0.307 -0.595
Attenuated Essence 26 24.08 46.15% -0.465 -0.3595 -0.142
Back Against the Wall 1901 36.68 60.23% -0.203 -0.1404 -0.326
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 31 32.16 48.39% -0.133 0.1503 -0.525
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 36.29 54.84% -0.024 0.1669 0.194
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1695 33.12 59.23% 0.359 0.7904 -0.54
Downward Spiral 2991 31.22 62.62% -0.007 0.2535 -0.411
Erosion of Will 1679 35.31 59.68% -0.111 0.2179 -0.391
Intensifying Exploitation 32 28.81 46.88% -0.578 -0.28 -0.187
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 462 38.45 76.84% 1.342 0.8436 -0.065
Memory Fades to Dust 3093 31.49 62.33% -0.593 -0.1989 -0.425
Power Corrodes the Spirit 779 33.9 58.15% -0.635 -0.3898 -0.774
Promising Farmlands 1623 33.56 57.67% -0.146 0.3411 -0.504
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 38.38 59.46% 0.546 0.6226 0.537
Slow Dissolution of Will 29 28.52 34.48% -0.76 -0.3256 -0.889
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 325 40.35 80.62% 0.062 -0.5698 0.089
The Border of Life and Death 7 40.57 85.71% 0.564 0.2033 -0.564
Thriving Communities 804 33.25 57.21% -0.086 0.2913 -0.598
Thriving Crops 19 32.32 68.42% 0.692 0.6359 -0.197
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.465
Unnatural Proliferation 901 35.85 61.49% 0.232 0.4325 -0.258
Untended Land Crumbles 747 33.37 56.89% -0.509 -0.2391 -0.44

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 49126 31.6% 35.84 80.71% 0.471 1.3329 0.086
B 54329 31.47% 35.9 80.92% -0.009 0.8187 0.218
C 49769 31.43% 35.92 80.76% -0.298 0.3907 -0.151
D 47672 32.53% 35.16 80.54% -0.198 0.6297 -0.167
E 16867 34.82% 36.4 79.25% -0.137 0.5214 0.134
F 23079 33.52% 36.49 79.59% -0.017 0.7356 -0.129
G 22132 33.33% 36.63 79.83% -0.321 0.4493 -0.195
H 22010 33.5% 36.85 80.22% 0.46 1.1498 0.178

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2834 0.0% 26.9 76.75% -0.499 0.3268 0.695
Not Using Events or Tokens 10083 25.09% 30.42 83.34% 0.002 0.339 0.421
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4127 7.1% 40.8 94.65% 0.934 0.3268 0.751
Start of Game Growth 5870 14.62% 42.49 86.15% -0.429 -0.7069 -0.243
Unlimited Undo 8924 24.12% 39.28 88.07% 0.116 0.1159 1.08
Using Tokens but Not Events 7782 19.33% 34.46 85.83% 0.2 0.1299 0.476

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10228 20.73 35.89%
II 25732 31.02 78.3%
III 25368 34.75 93.27%
IV 10055 38.04 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3671
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22643
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18897
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9925
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 977
Lose: Invader deck ran out 332
Lose: Adversary condition 4877
Win: Sacrifice victory 79
Lose: Scenario condition 1507
Win: Scenario condition 2238
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5654
Lose: Spirit destroyed 583

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)