Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 12.5% 30.0 100.0% 0.178 -0.2112
Blitz 0 987 23.58% 36.2 81.76% 1.006 1.4934 0.297
Dahan Insurrection 4 1829 22.49% 64.22 83.71% 0.503 0.5829 1.082
Despicable Theft 2 75 41.33% 32.79 80.0% 0.019 0.4751 -0.64
Elemental Invocation 1 162 51.85% 34.79 67.28% -0.097 0.553 -0.795
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7122 9.36% 51.98 81.96% -0.434 -0.3146 0.75
Powers Long Forgotten 1 273 51.84% 31.52 64.1% 0.474 1.0713 -1.166
Rituals of Terror 3 188 49.18% 39.3 71.81% 0.057 -0.0616 -0.128
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 110 64.22% 38.94 66.36% -0.307 0.0384 -0.77
Second Wave 0 3270 31.58% 30.11 86.85% -0.082 0.4297 0.615
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 32.17 66.67% 0.272 1.0643
Ward the Shores 2 362 43.43% 34.59 63.54% -0.869 -0.1488 -0.615

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1662 36.0 62.58% -1.288 0.6606 -0.366
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1795 37.29 64.12% -1.014 0.7806 -0.386
All Things Weaken 761 34.67 58.87% -1.081 1.003 -0.772
Back Against the Wall 1849 36.85 60.63% -1.302 0.5799 -0.479
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1642 33.03 58.95% -0.783 1.2892 -0.749
Downward Spiral 2886 31.47 63.1% -1.917 -0.0366 -0.573
Erosion of Will 1624 35.53 60.16% -1.165 0.9234 -0.515
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 446 38.14 76.23% -0.925 -0.3177 -0.31
Memory Fades to Dust 2996 31.79 63.02% -1.257 0.7995 -0.543
Power Corrodes the Spirit 724 34.69 59.81% -1.254 0.6658 -0.89
Promising Farmlands 1571 33.6 57.99% -1.321 0.7192 -0.704
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 312 41.03 81.73% -0.439 0.0003 -0.044
Thriving Communities 774 33.27 57.75% -1.235 0.8397 -0.761
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.611
Unnatural Proliferation 850 36.01 61.88% -0.549 1.4075 -0.403
Untended Land Crumbles 705 33.74 57.45% -1.1 0.9094 -0.61

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 47012 31.76% 36.31 81.75% 0.08 0.8975 0.094
B 52250 31.61% 36.35 81.85% -0.614 0.1475 0.22
C 47685 31.57% 36.4 81.8% 0.124 0.6769 -0.192
D 45664 32.67% 35.66 81.6% 0.323 1.0899 -0.135
E 15503 35.04% 37.28 81.15% -0.158 0.4682 0.127
F 21760 33.57% 37.12 80.85% -0.06 0.6613 -0.094
G 20882 33.38% 37.3 81.14% 0.138 0.8203 -0.213
H 20791 33.55% 37.43 81.42% 0.24 0.9205 0.162

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2734 0.0% 27.29 77.69% -2.799 -0.5864 0.442
Not Using Events or Tokens 9559 25.49% 31.01 84.94% 0.508 0.7083 0.372
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4030 7.12% 41.09 95.24% 1.455 0.2119 0.593
Start of Game Growth 5703 14.74% 42.94 87.04% -0.003 -0.3817 -0.16
Unlimited Undo 8598 24.29% 39.81 89.15% 1.474 0.9979 1.268
Using Tokens but Not Events 7421 19.77% 35.09 86.78% -0.804 -0.6312 0.556

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9092 22.69 39.17%
II 24761 31.12 78.66%
III 24423 34.69 93.4%
IV 9727 37.96 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3561
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21814
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18241
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9601
Lose: Invader deck ran out 325
Lose: Adversary condition 4727
Win: Sacrifice victory 75
Lose: Scenario condition 1482
Win: Scenario condition 2205
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5409
Lose: Spirit destroyed 563

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)