Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 334 33.23% 27.78 -2.346 81.74% -0.87 -0.5805
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 199 37.69% 32.69 0.293 86.43% -0.404 0.0098
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 332 50.6% 39.88 3.85 81.93% -0.615 0.2686
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 417 53.14% 39.95 3.474 71.7% -1.308 -0.0659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 197 77.32% 39.02 3.18 50.25% -1.814 -0.3171
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 87 71.26% 39.05 3.431 42.53% -2.264 -0.3255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 362 84.96% 38.05 3.266 33.43% -2.585 -0.5425
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1374 22.76% 26.28 -2.921 93.01% 0.213 0.2541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1074 28.11% 31.45 -0.393 91.71% 0.077 0.0592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1680 30.6% 40.91 4.278 91.55% 0.094 0.108
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1742 35.84% 48.45 7.724 90.76% 0.044 0.3274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1159 36.92% 50.3 8.687 89.82% -0.09 0.269
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 451 48.75% 53.73 10.487 78.05% -0.805 0.0198
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1284 67.15% 52.05 9.56 64.88% -1.426 -0.1867
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1104 22.53% 25.45 -3.441 85.05% -0.71 -0.3806
The Kingdom of England 1 3 610 32.89% 33.74 0.416 80.49% -0.935 -0.4187
The Kingdom of England 2 4 974 40.4% 34.4 0.975 70.94% -1.424 -0.4508
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1404 47.56% 37.79 1.85 57.98% -2.078 -0.4982
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3220 18.71% 51.24 7.289 77.73% -1.464 0.0305
The Kingdom of England 5 9 610 33.5% 51.29 8.142 58.85% -2.379 -0.3086
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2419 37.96% 54.07 9.998 59.36% -2.269 -0.0252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 761 35.13% 29.41 -1.65 84.76% -0.542 -0.0307
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 373 52.99% 31.53 -0.582 73.73% -1.035 -0.1326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 955 41.9% 38.08 2.186 62.62% -1.888 0.2535
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 911 50.0% 44.2 5.185 61.69% -1.871 0.3271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 968 45.18% 51.04 8.161 66.94% -1.746 0.4151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 854 50.47% 58.94 11.886 76.35% -0.989 0.8284
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2530 48.33% 58.05 11.514 62.73% -1.84 0.2511
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 790 26.09% 25.24 -3.438 92.53% 0.192 0.2804
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 524 29.88% 30.6 -1.002 88.74% -0.207 -0.1716
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1078 32.33% 33.58 0.864 89.42% -0.035 0.2023
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 947 41.32% 43.62 5.569 89.97% 0.055 0.3451
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 577 60.0% 40.55 3.89 71.75% -1.015 -0.2339
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 224 50.0% 45.46 5.983 73.66% -1.077 0.0914
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1955 55.72% 47.19 6.773 69.72% -1.313 -0.1903
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 198 19.19% 26.52 -3.382 93.43% 0.014 -0.0743
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 135 45.93% 35.27 0.997 85.93% -0.331 0.4477
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 200 33.5% 40.65 3.855 93.0% 0.197 0.6086
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 178 56.25% 43.76 5.402 76.97% -0.951 0.2932
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 106 50.0% 49.0 7.656 78.3% -0.925 0.1832
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 105 85.71% 38.77 3.2 34.29% -2.412 -0.4281
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 345 77.25% 49.22 7.852 40.87% -2.491 -0.6194

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 926 23.79% 31.57 -1.664 84.99% -0.22 0.3457
Dahan Insurrection 4 1955 22.63% 62.5 12.714 83.32% -0.035 0.3658
Despicable Theft 2 49 42.86% 33.73 0.714 85.71% -0.229 0.0452
Elemental Invocation 1 118 52.54% 35.52 -0.462 67.8% -0.588 -0.085
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7192 9.39% 50.15 5.707 80.31% -0.261 0.1044
Powers Long Forgotten 1 343 54.39% 32.25 -1.037 65.01% -1.028 -0.5812
Rituals of Terror 3 249 47.74% 39.14 2.982 70.28% -0.789 -0.1439
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 135 63.16% 37.32 1.428 68.15% -0.664 -0.0168
Second Wave 0 3602 32.29% 30.88 -0.885 86.48% -0.185 0.2447
Ward the Shores 2 397 40.31% 35.26 -0.105 61.46% -1.446 -0.4139

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1387 35.73 -1.063 62.87% -1.445 0.6245
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1484 36.88 -0.409 63.75% -1.398 0.5152
All Things Weaken 539 32.91 -2.23 56.96% -1.81 0.3496
Back Against the Wall 1531 36.65 -0.701 61.4% -1.49 0.5971
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1351 32.12 -2.883 57.51% -1.708 0.5142
Downward Spiral 2376 31.1 -2.54 62.75% -1.695 0.3263
Erosion of Will 1276 34.23 -1.787 59.72% -1.633 0.5744
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 293 37.75 0.117 74.74% -0.87 -0.1915
Memory Fades to Dust 2481 31.34 -2.423 62.19% -1.686 0.5285
Power Corrodes the Spirit 505 33.43 -1.937 59.21% -1.605 0.4163
Promising Farmlands 1308 32.9 -2.446 57.57% -1.727 0.4812
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 201 38.86 0.492 80.6% -0.563 -0.1514
Thriving Communities 560 32.89 -2.228 58.57% -1.658 0.4296
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.055 55.23% -1.737 0.488
Unnatural Proliferation 596 34.33 -1.392 59.4% -1.684 0.3963
Untended Land Crumbles 508 32.39 -2.532 54.72% -1.86 0.2421

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 38721 32.0% 35.98 -0.066 81.41% 0.032 -0.656
B 43497 31.98% 36.13 -0.024 81.49% 0.129 -0.655
C 39115 31.8% 36.13 0.073 81.44% -0.025 -1.0382
D 37841 33.04% 35.5 -0.666 81.18% -0.199 -0.9766
E 10688 34.97% 37.13 0.252 80.86% 0.195 -0.6993
F 16457 33.05% 37.06 -0.111 80.85% -0.151 -0.9922
G 16013 33.41% 37.31 0.271 80.81% 0.003 -0.8286
H 15756 33.33% 37.46 0.348 81.23% 0.084 -0.7554

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2282 0.0% 27.75 -3.667 78.66% -1.864 0.1893
Not Using Events or Tokens 7682 25.82% 30.49 -1.642 84.81% 0.032 0.2467
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3405 7.54% 41.17 2.416 94.98% 1.299 0.6124
Start of Game Growth 4894 14.67% 42.56 2.509 86.68% -0.154 -0.6225
Unlimited Undo 6935 23.45% 39.73 1.855 88.71% 0.61 0.1865
Using Tokens but Not Events 5831 21.3% 36.2 -0.329 86.37% 0.301 0.2503

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7258 22.37 37.79%
II 19844 30.88 78.27%
III 19590 34.39 93.3%
IV 7830 37.55 99.04%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2176
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13468
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6036
Lose: Invader deck ran out 255
Lose: Adversary condition 3750
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Scenario condition 1317
Win: Scenario condition 1872
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4423
Lose: Spirit destroyed 470

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)