Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 23.08% 24.71 78.57% -0.265 -0.4541 -0.853
Blitz 0 1056 22.63% 36.43 81.25% 0.722 0.9063 0.535
Dahan Insurrection 4 1885 22.13% 63.46 82.76% -0.101 -0.4149 1.081
Despicable Theft 2 81 38.75% 31.64 77.78% -0.762 -0.0175 -0.592
Elemental Invocation 1 171 52.05% 33.88 64.91% -0.551 0.2213 -0.751
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7346 9.4% 51.6 81.57% 0.726 0.105 0.91
Powers Long Forgotten 1 286 51.41% 31.09 62.59% -0.657 -0.115 -1.145
Rituals of Terror 3 201 47.96% 38.2 69.65% -0.336 -0.2296 -0.019
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 123 62.3% 36.41 62.6% -1.251 -0.2805 -0.736
Second Wave 0 3333 31.89% 30.03 86.53% 0.358 0.4262 0.656
Varied Terrains 2 38 44.74% 28.89 68.42% 0.427 1.0008 -0.479
Ward the Shores 2 381 43.9% 33.48 61.94% -1.024 0.1089 -0.563

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1719 35.94 62.65% 0.448 0.6464 -0.191
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1848 37.08 63.53% -0.188 -0.2549 -0.195
All Things Weaken 820 34.69 58.05% -0.003 0.3652 -0.587
Attenuated Essence 26 24.08 46.15% -0.395 -0.3247 -0.144
Back Against the Wall 1901 36.68 60.23% -0.178 -0.1091 -0.319
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 31 32.16 48.39% -0.133 0.1238 -0.517
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 36.29 54.84% 0.037 0.2117 0.197
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1695 33.12 59.23% 0.392 0.8311 -0.531
Downward Spiral 2992 31.21 62.6% -0.072 0.1739 -0.404
Erosion of Will 1680 35.32 59.7% -0.183 0.1346 -0.384
Intensifying Exploitation 33 28.39 48.48% -0.499 -0.2295 -0.176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 466 38.49 76.82% 1.022 0.5121 -0.056
Memory Fades to Dust 3093 31.49 62.33% -0.641 -0.2771 -0.419
Power Corrodes the Spirit 785 33.97 58.34% -0.454 -0.2174 -0.762
Promising Farmlands 1628 33.53 57.56% -0.205 0.2554 -0.502
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 36.54 56.1% 0.386 0.4415 0.542
Slow Dissolution of Will 29 28.52 34.48% -0.743 -0.3357 -0.873
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 325 40.35 80.62% 0.26 -0.3822 0.098
The Border of Life and Death 7 40.57 85.71% 0.595 0.2084 -0.563
Thriving Communities 807 33.24 57.13% 0.109 0.4661 -0.593
Thriving Crops 21 32.19 71.43% 0.803 0.6875 -0.189
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.462
Unnatural Proliferation 903 35.79 61.35% 0.14 0.3129 -0.247
Untended Land Crumbles 750 33.34 56.93% -0.377 -0.1284 -0.432

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 49230 31.58% 35.82 80.68% 0.54 1.3727 0.094
B 54434 31.46% 35.88 80.88% -0.162 0.6381 0.214
C 49888 31.4% 35.9 80.73% -0.302 0.3546 -0.156
D 47783 32.52% 35.13 80.5% -0.12 0.674 -0.166
E 16931 34.82% 36.36 79.18% -0.281 0.3472 0.131
F 23132 33.52% 36.47 79.53% 0.062 0.7747 -0.127
G 22187 33.34% 36.61 79.76% -0.316 0.4225 -0.199
H 22067 33.52% 36.82 80.17% 0.529 1.1878 0.183

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2837 0.0% 26.91 76.74% -0.448 0.3654 0.706
Not Using Events or Tokens 10112 25.03% 30.4 83.33% 0.091 0.4278 0.422
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4134 7.09% 40.78 94.58% 0.809 0.1756 0.773
Start of Game Growth 5874 14.61% 42.48 86.13% -0.39 -0.6802 -0.259
Unlimited Undo 8939 24.08% 39.25 88.03% 0.113 0.1154 1.078
Using Tokens but Not Events 7802 19.33% 34.42 85.76% 0.141 0.0661 0.473

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10281 20.63 35.77%
II 25782 31.02 78.29%
III 25419 34.75 93.27%
IV 10069 38.05 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3677
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22690
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18934
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9939
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1022
Lose: Invader deck ran out 332
Lose: Adversary condition 4880
Win: Sacrifice victory 79
Lose: Scenario condition 1507
Win: Scenario condition 2240
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5667
Lose: Spirit destroyed 584

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)