Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 265 36.6% 27.33 -2.495 80.0% -0.891 -0.6082
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 152 38.82% 32.48 0.139 86.18% -0.38 0.0142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 226 52.21% 40.07 3.9 81.86% -0.547 0.3136
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 328 51.38% 39.52 3.191 69.82% -1.431 -0.1806
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 148 84.14% 36.93 2.519 45.27% -1.861 -0.3263
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 62 70.97% 38.79 3.301 41.94% -2.162 -0.0937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 300 85.52% 37.34 2.986 31.67% -2.634 -0.5561
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1147 23.67% 26.17 -2.922 92.76% 0.203 0.246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 875 27.57% 31.78 -0.282 91.89% 0.085 0.059
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1409 30.42% 40.8 4.263 91.13% 0.056 0.0565
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1501 34.77% 49.04 7.907 91.41% 0.112 0.4047
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 992 36.36% 50.61 8.747 89.82% -0.087 0.283
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 406 48.98% 53.77 10.543 78.33% -0.78 0.0585
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1138 66.51% 51.64 9.447 64.32% -1.444 -0.1957
The Kingdom of England 0 1 899 22.81% 25.47 -3.404 84.98% -0.71 -0.3794
The Kingdom of England 1 3 487 32.56% 34.39 0.732 82.75% -0.745 -0.2558
The Kingdom of England 2 4 823 39.23% 34.77 1.138 71.93% -1.371 -0.4064
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1174 46.73% 38.05 1.938 58.18% -2.062 -0.4823
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2752 18.21% 51.14 7.317 77.11% -1.449 0.0654
The Kingdom of England 5 9 519 36.09% 48.92 6.986 54.91% -2.44 -0.3694
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2062 39.17% 53.48 9.793 58.15% -2.29 -0.0331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 646 34.42% 29.46 -1.592 84.06% -0.582 -0.057
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 314 52.75% 31.74 -0.478 73.57% -1.02 -0.1313
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 822 42.61% 38.04 2.105 62.17% -1.874 0.254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 818 49.31% 44.27 5.231 61.25% -1.868 0.3161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 854 43.81% 51.11 8.124 66.39% -1.768 0.3828
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 769 49.54% 59.26 12.057 76.85% -0.923 0.9034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2090 50.1% 57.33 11.353 61.82% -1.837 0.2908
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 653 25.74% 25.3 -3.455 92.65% 0.194 0.2819
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 442 28.77% 30.89 -0.891 88.91% -0.206 -0.1951
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 963 30.97% 33.85 0.963 90.34% 0.013 0.2324
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 821 40.34% 43.67 5.571 89.28% -0.023 0.2601
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 528 59.69% 40.52 3.822 70.83% -1.047 -0.2761
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 212 49.52% 45.53 6.042 73.58% -1.051 0.1159
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1617 57.01% 46.81 6.664 68.83% -1.327 -0.1958
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 138 19.57% 26.46 -3.327 94.2% 0.193 0.0702
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 95 42.11% 36.28 1.435 88.42% -0.171 0.5447
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 131 34.35% 40.52 3.771 92.37% 0.153 0.591
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 126 58.06% 44.02 5.428 76.98% -0.894 0.3652
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 81 50.62% 47.52 6.88 74.07% -1.086 0.0537
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 91 84.62% 37.22 2.438 29.67% -2.623 -0.5621
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 235 81.28% 47.49 7.294 39.15% -2.454 -0.518

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 828 23.44% 32.16 -1.468 84.06% -0.263 0.3135
Dahan Insurrection 4 1674 23.28% 62.51 12.725 84.11% 0.083 0.4839
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 27.5 -0.735 50.0% -1.271 -0.8417
Elemental Invocation 1 58 44.83% 36.45 0.141 74.14% -0.542 -0.1614
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6095 9.45% 49.73 5.584 79.75% -0.288 0.0778
Powers Long Forgotten 1 306 55.08% 32.56 -0.774 66.99% -0.869 -0.4278
Rituals of Terror 3 219 46.48% 39.53 3.07 70.32% -0.733 -0.1044
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 127 63.2% 37.45 1.522 67.72% -0.621 0.0283
Second Wave 0 3048 32.05% 31.05 -0.777 86.65% -0.153 0.263
Ward the Shores 2 335 38.13% 35.83 0.169 63.88% -1.276 -0.2394

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1215 35.72 -1.051 63.13% -1.428 0.642
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1276 37.1 -0.333 63.09% -1.404 0.5147
All Things Weaken 386 32.12 -2.577 53.89% -1.903 0.252
Back Against the Wall 1336 36.85 -0.64 61.08% -1.486 0.6103
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1164 31.78 -3.059 56.62% -1.738 0.4855
Downward Spiral 2060 31.14 -2.541 62.43% -1.722 0.2951
Erosion of Will 1104 33.97 -1.886 58.7% -1.674 0.5353
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 196 37.28 -0.259 71.94% -0.975 -0.2704
Memory Fades to Dust 2161 31.46 -2.4 61.82% -1.701 0.5136
Power Corrodes the Spirit 356 33.2 -1.858 59.83% -1.539 0.4809
Promising Farmlands 1125 32.93 -2.49 56.71% -1.749 0.4632
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 135 39.39 0.854 80.74% -0.48 -0.0445
Thriving Communities 405 31.95 -2.555 56.79% -1.731 0.3663
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.03 55.23% -1.734 0.4846
Unnatural Proliferation 414 33.38 -1.768 57.73% -1.745 0.333
Untended Land Crumbles 376 32.46 -2.579 54.26% -1.838 0.2608

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 33486 32.06% 35.92 -0.116 81.17% -0.014 -1.1039
B 37924 32.08% 36.09 -0.01 81.34% 0.203 -0.9819
C 33804 31.8% 36.09 0.075 81.2% -0.069 -1.4836
D 32959 33.01% 35.46 -0.73 81.0% -0.207 -1.3843
E 7664 34.57% 37.23 0.314 80.39% 0.268 -1.0094
F 12998 32.84% 37.26 -0.029 80.48% -0.13 -1.3732
G 12768 33.42% 37.33 0.268 80.33% -0.036 -1.267
H 12509 33.14% 37.52 0.339 80.84% 0.058 -1.182

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1965 0.0% 27.7 -3.733 78.02% -1.942 0.1016
Not Using Events or Tokens 6689 25.45% 30.54 -1.634 85.29% 0.106 0.3254
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2918 6.61% 41.97 2.745 95.78% 1.577 0.8726
Start of Game Growth 4147 14.23% 42.59 2.461 86.64% -0.234 -0.6885
Unlimited Undo 5977 22.56% 39.99 1.976 88.79% 0.622 0.2098
Using Tokens but Not Events 4946 21.95% 35.95 -0.387 85.83% 0.319 0.271

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6247 22.34 37.65%
II 16862 30.75 78.17%
III 16545 34.26 93.34%
IV 6374 37.47 99.07%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1785
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10754
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9002
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4614
Lose: Invader deck ran out 204
Lose: Adversary condition 3183
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 1144
Win: Scenario condition 1622
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3794
Lose: Spirit destroyed 412

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)