Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 38 35.14% 31.11 76.32% -0.573 -0.8296 -0.044
Blitz 0 1366 20.89% 37.34 79.14% 0.571 0.8778 1.508
Dahan Insurrection 4 2448 20.07% 56.77 75.86% 0.57 0.1344 1.557
Despicable Theft 2 150 34.23% 23.82 53.33% -1.527 -0.8328 -1.535
Elemental Invocation 1 241 51.04% 30.8 58.92% -0.525 0.1439 -0.725
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8897 9.21% 50.2 79.7% 0.987 0.3737 1.472
Powers Long Forgotten 1 398 50.76% 26.79 54.02% -0.274 0.4299 -0.935
Rituals of Terror 3 342 37.5% 28.87 52.63% -0.117 -0.1294 -0.84
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 155 61.04% 33.06 58.71% 0.068 0.9362 -0.483
Second Wave 0 4151 30.13% 28.98 83.16% 0.132 0.2856 0.869
Varied Terrains 2 112 45.54% 25.91 61.61% 0.467 1.3032 -0.743
Ward the Shores 2 628 32.52% 24.13 44.59% -1.149 -0.1059 -1.517

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2061 35.36 60.84% 0.354 0.376 0.595
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2195 37.14 63.83% 1.13 0.9991 0.753
All Things Weaken 1135 32.88 55.15% -0.088 0.0613 0.179
Attenuated Essence 232 31.49 55.17% -0.255 -0.2936 0.52
Back Against the Wall 2221 36.45 60.38% 0.735 0.716 0.602
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 241 34.2 59.34% 0.356 0.4965 0.269
Burn Brightest Before the End 260 35.17 56.54% 0.236 0.2437 0.224
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2010 32.33 58.16% -0.447 -0.2467 0.376
Downward Spiral 3890 29.35 60.26% 0.381 0.4342 0.502
Erosion of Will 1987 34.5 58.08% -0.269 -0.1104 0.406
Intensifying Exploitation 212 30.35 53.3% 0.006 0.1366 0.439
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 623 36.72 73.84% 1.364 0.8142 0.431
Memory Fades to Dust 3993 29.93 59.85% 0.312 0.5127 0.418
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1111 32.68 57.52% 0.154 0.237 0.01
Promising Farmlands 2016 32.94 56.65% 0.443 0.6609 0.308
Shattered Fragments of Power 255 33.28 54.9% -0.381 -0.331 0.73
Slow Dissolution of Will 245 28.36 43.27% -1.157 -0.8173 -0.755
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 417 38.11 76.02% 0.636 -0.0536 0.734
The Border of Life and Death 90 28.73 62.22% 0.005 -0.4184 -0.785
Thriving Communities 1185 32.29 55.27% 0.572 0.7422 0.133
Thriving Crops 187 30.63 64.71% 0.84 0.524 -0.211
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% 0.547
Unnatural Proliferation 1222 35.05 59.82% 0.108 0.1575 0.456
Untended Land Crumbles 1066 32.1 55.35% 0.25 0.4503 0.306

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 66252 30.4% 32.38 72.99% 0.06 1.031 0.087
B 73252 29.82% 32.08 72.26% 0.112 0.9966 -0.031
C 66977 30.12% 32.47 73.0% 0.087 0.8046 -0.039
D 64222 31.11% 31.63 72.58% -0.307 0.5782 -0.079
E 25775 34.21% 32.69 71.64% 0.223 0.9319 0.015
F 33115 32.35% 32.19 70.76% -0.232 0.5737 -0.039
G 31996 32.18% 32.22 70.85% 0.015 0.7969 -0.066
H 31851 32.13% 32.35 70.8% 0.077 0.8433 0.117

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3995 0.0% 22.53 67.13% -0.82 -0.1818 0.724
Not Using Events or Tokens 14763 24.9% 26.38 71.58% -0.485 -0.0223 0.256
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5062 6.77% 39.08 89.02% 0.496 -0.277 1.433
Start of Game Growth 7039 13.87% 40.5 82.0% -0.043 -0.4828 0.466
Unlimited Undo 13935 20.54% 31.61 69.95% 0.178 0.1432 -0.254
Using Tokens but Not Events 10522 20.52% 31.14 79.01% 0.19 0.104 0.157

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21502 13.99 20.51%
II 31872 30.24 75.42%
III 32248 34.83 92.76%
IV 13002 38.62 99.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4411
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28721
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22631
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12800
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11278
Lose: Invader deck ran out 406
Lose: Adversary condition 6137
Win: Sacrifice victory 104
Lose: Scenario condition 1724
Win: Scenario condition 2579
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7113
Lose: Spirit destroyed 720

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-03 11:51:59 (Pacific Time)