Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 27.5 100.0% 0.264 0.0618
Blitz 0 899 24.72% 34.49 81.54% 0.002 0.2596 -0.262
Dahan Insurrection 4 1729 22.81% 64.03 83.92% -0.254 0.1592 1.159
Despicable Theft 2 69 40.58% 32.9 78.26% -0.557 -0.111 -0.688
Elemental Invocation 1 146 51.37% 34.73 65.75% -1.057 -0.5717 -0.881
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6722 9.32% 51.93 81.85% -0.255 0.0503 0.762
Powers Long Forgotten 1 256 53.33% 31.29 62.5% 0.229 0.411 -1.262
Rituals of Terror 3 179 49.43% 38.93 70.95% 0.03 0.1508 -0.176
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 97 60.42% 38.74 68.04% 0.063 0.4778 -0.883
Second Wave 0 3133 31.53% 29.96 86.72% -0.379 0.1869 0.469
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 30.57 57.14% -1.335 -0.8091
Ward the Shores 2 342 43.33% 34.86 62.87% -2.279 -1.117 -0.542

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1575 35.88 62.6% -0.869 1.0338 -0.322
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1696 36.84 64.21% -0.361 1.369 -0.244
All Things Weaken 699 33.64 58.08% -0.575 1.4105 -0.863
Back Against the Wall 1756 36.64 60.65% -1.59 0.2265 -0.442
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1548 32.63 58.33% -1.14 0.9102 -0.705
Downward Spiral 2745 31.37 63.13% -1.395 0.5984 -0.517
Erosion of Will 1519 34.87 59.78% -1.21 0.8733 -0.579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 383 38.57 75.72% -0.463 -0.0218 -0.175
Memory Fades to Dust 2857 31.66 62.48% -1.452 0.6319 -0.523
Power Corrodes the Spirit 640 34.18 60.0% -0.585 1.353 -0.841
Promising Farmlands 1498 33.36 57.94% -1.265 0.7812 -0.7
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 276 40.0 82.25% -0.477 -0.0522 0.035
Thriving Communities 689 32.51 57.33% -1.962 0.0218 -0.692
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.575
Unnatural Proliferation 768 35.21 61.07% -0.907 1.0571 -0.388
Untended Land Crumbles 656 33.65 57.01% -0.39 1.6035 -0.607

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 44429 31.86% 36.19 81.68% -0.082 0.7152 0.069
B 49559 31.72% 36.28 81.83% 0.28 1.0237 0.248
C 45002 31.63% 36.33 81.75% -0.068 0.5003 -0.176
D 43271 32.81% 35.63 81.49% -0.123 0.6731 -0.153
E 13961 35.13% 37.13 80.95% 0.304 0.9508 0.157
F 20116 33.3% 36.99 80.99% -0.099 0.6256 -0.113
G 19387 33.45% 37.2 81.06% 0.039 0.771 -0.195
H 19256 33.4% 37.4 81.39% -0.187 0.5251 0.132

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2557 0.0% 27.78 79.23% -1.274 0.855 0.42
Not Using Events or Tokens 8952 26.01% 30.94 84.6% -0.223 -0.0475 0.365
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3878 7.21% 41.09 95.15% -0.43 -0.5725 0.279
Start of Game Growth 5500 14.91% 42.87 86.93% 1.056 0.2951 -0.147
Unlimited Undo 8105 24.21% 39.86 88.91% 0.762 0.1581 1.311
Using Tokens but Not Events 6985 20.06% 35.7 87.39% 0.989 0.8329 0.592

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8415 22.56 38.47%
II 23254 30.98 78.53%
III 22944 34.53 93.35%
IV 9201 37.77 99.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3237
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20465
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17081
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9081
Lose: Invader deck ran out 307
Lose: Adversary condition 4426
Win: Sacrifice victory 66
Lose: Scenario condition 1432
Win: Scenario condition 2110
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5075
Lose: Spirit destroyed 534

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)