Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 27.27% 28.83 91.67% 0.131 0.0653 -0.482
Blitz 0 1034 23.12% 36.28 81.14% 0.655 0.8296 0.489
Dahan Insurrection 4 1853 22.41% 63.91 83.54% 0.188 0.017 1.116
Despicable Theft 2 79 39.74% 32.44 79.75% -0.015 0.6549 -0.602
Elemental Invocation 1 169 52.07% 33.9 65.68% -0.723 -0.0406 -0.728
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7276 9.4% 51.77 81.8% 0.624 0.0022 0.873
Powers Long Forgotten 1 282 51.79% 31.2 62.77% -0.816 -0.3554 -1.092
Rituals of Terror 3 197 47.92% 38.62 70.05% -0.436 -0.4953 -0.037
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 116 63.48% 38.43 66.38% -0.095 0.8507 -0.729
Second Wave 0 3299 31.7% 30.04 86.63% 0.141 0.2082 0.655
Varied Terrains 2 27 33.33% 27.63 66.67% -0.094 0.4591 -0.497
Ward the Shores 2 371 43.73% 34.03 62.53% -1.145 0.0647 -0.56

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1705 35.93 62.58% -0.019 0.2777 -0.248
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1827 37.17 63.77% -0.916 -0.8146 -0.26
All Things Weaken 800 34.69 58.38% -0.264 0.2333 -0.665
Attenuated Essence 18 15.39 27.78% -1.374 -1.0449 -0.74
Back Against the Wall 1891 36.73 60.23% -0.377 -0.148 -0.361
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 36.75 58.33% -0.031 0.4968 0.461
Burn Brightest Before the End 26 36.35 57.69% -0.204 0.1618 0.087
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1682 33.06 59.16% -0.189 0.3944 -0.612
Downward Spiral 2960 31.28 62.74% -0.242 0.1395 -0.452
Erosion of Will 1665 35.39 59.76% -0.337 0.1554 -0.434
Intensifying Exploitation 25 28.48 52.0% -0.769 -0.2989 -0.568
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 456 38.28 76.54% 0.628 0.1581 -0.112
Memory Fades to Dust 3063 31.53 62.39% -0.656 -0.1453 -0.448
Power Corrodes the Spirit 764 34.0 58.51% -0.453 -0.1096 -0.806
Promising Farmlands 1604 33.55 57.61% -0.52 0.1179 -0.551
Shattered Fragments of Power 33 38.48 60.61% 0.222 0.4938 0.666
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 30.74 39.13% -0.822 -0.2258 -0.693
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 320 40.43 80.63% -0.275 -0.9614 0.045
The Border of Life and Death 6 38.33 83.33% 0.244 0.1923 -0.572
Thriving Communities 794 33.2 57.18% -0.521 0.0273 -0.664
Thriving Crops 18 31.56 66.67% 0.521 0.7341 -0.248
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.498
Unnatural Proliferation 890 35.96 61.91% 0.223 0.5765 -0.242
Untended Land Crumbles 740 33.51 57.3% -0.551 -0.149 -0.47

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 48535 31.68% 35.98 81.04% 0.593 1.4503 0.094
B 53742 31.52% 36.04 81.22% -0.172 0.6078 0.218
C 49213 31.48% 36.06 81.06% -0.144 0.5113 -0.162
D 47102 32.58% 35.3 80.87% -0.174 0.6344 -0.17
E 16507 34.98% 36.6 79.71% -0.38 0.2545 0.141
F 22745 33.59% 36.65 79.91% -0.105 0.6193 -0.143
G 21780 33.4% 36.82 80.24% -0.149 0.6028 -0.187
H 21685 33.54% 37.0 80.56% 0.57 1.2359 0.18

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2804 0.0% 27.06 77.07% -0.885 0.046 0.505
Not Using Events or Tokens 9925 25.23% 30.61 83.85% 0.1 0.4114 0.402
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4105 7.1% 40.87 94.74% 0.882 0.3577 0.598
Start of Game Growth 5806 14.72% 42.69 86.55% -0.244 -0.5979 -0.113
Unlimited Undo 8806 24.16% 39.49 88.56% 0.387 0.3532 1.198
Using Tokens but Not Events 7699 19.42% 34.65 86.19% 0.226 0.1627 0.538

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9896 21.2 36.79%
II 25446 31.05 78.42%
III 25147 34.73 93.29%
IV 9969 38.01 99.2%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3641
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22449
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18711
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9841
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 679
Lose: Invader deck ran out 331
Lose: Adversary condition 4838
Win: Sacrifice victory 77
Lose: Scenario condition 1496
Win: Scenario condition 2224
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5600
Lose: Spirit destroyed 571

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)