Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 283 34.98% 27.38 -2.502 79.86% -0.936 -0.6554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 169 38.46% 32.65 0.265 86.39% -0.369 0.0213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 249 52.61% 39.96 3.896 81.93% -0.546 0.3241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 351 52.01% 39.68 3.309 70.37% -1.394 -0.1366
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 171 76.19% 38.19 2.735 47.95% -1.86 -0.3311
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 72 73.61% 38.03 2.967 40.28% -2.237 -0.211
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 318 85.71% 37.21 2.939 31.45% -2.647 -0.5766
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1219 23.83% 26.16 -2.906 92.86% 0.216 0.2535
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 923 28.35% 31.66 -0.29 91.87% 0.102 0.0716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1471 30.63% 40.75 4.277 91.3% 0.079 0.0834
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1553 35.68% 48.82 7.86 91.18% 0.101 0.3921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1028 36.65% 50.51 8.739 89.79% -0.078 0.2827
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 415 48.39% 53.79 10.555 78.31% -0.783 0.0457
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1185 66.75% 51.82 9.524 64.47% -1.438 -0.1928
The Kingdom of England 0 1 959 23.06% 25.46 -3.384 85.09% -0.694 -0.363
The Kingdom of England 1 3 513 33.67% 34.11 0.653 82.26% -0.754 -0.2538
The Kingdom of England 2 4 863 40.33% 34.55 1.062 71.38% -1.386 -0.4164
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1257 47.07% 37.9 1.914 58.07% -2.059 -0.4807
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2868 18.38% 51.13 7.338 77.16% -1.46 0.041
The Kingdom of England 5 9 539 36.62% 49.28 7.24 55.66% -2.414 -0.3446
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2135 39.03% 53.37 9.767 57.94% -2.301 -0.0491
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 690 34.98% 29.37 -1.617 83.91% -0.585 -0.0598
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 328 52.94% 31.51 -0.535 73.17% -1.035 -0.1418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 838 42.63% 38.09 2.16 62.53% -1.855 0.2739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 838 49.82% 44.2 5.225 61.22% -1.867 0.3194
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 877 44.61% 50.98 8.1 66.25% -1.765 0.3777
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 794 50.38% 58.99 11.966 76.32% -0.96 0.8633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2250 49.06% 57.72 11.443 61.91% -1.856 0.2594
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 691 26.06% 25.26 -3.431 92.47% 0.188 0.2766
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 458 29.75% 30.75 -0.931 88.65% -0.217 -0.1972
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 985 31.3% 33.81 0.99 90.25% 0.019 0.2415
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 845 40.74% 43.61 5.579 89.35% -0.016 0.2698
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 546 59.93% 40.43 3.838 70.88% -1.047 -0.2793
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 219 49.31% 45.62 6.098 73.97% -1.045 0.1154
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1725 57.62% 46.46 6.536 68.06% -1.366 -0.2333
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 154 20.13% 26.36 -3.427 93.51% 0.052 -0.0675
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 103 40.78% 36.09 1.357 88.35% -0.2 0.5188
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 134 35.07% 40.49 3.79 92.54% 0.18 0.6222
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 151 58.39% 43.54 5.298 76.16% -0.952 0.2992
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 84 51.19% 47.81 7.063 75.0% -1.041 0.0829
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 93 84.95% 36.95 2.366 29.03% -2.648 -0.6013
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 264 78.41% 47.83 7.322 39.39% -2.496 -0.5618

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 850 23.89% 32.08 -1.435 84.24% -0.246 0.3347
Dahan Insurrection 4 1783 22.8% 62.77 12.761 83.4% 0.019 0.4223
Despicable Theft 2 14 21.43% 31.64 0.124 85.71% -0.594 -0.2444
Elemental Invocation 1 79 45.57% 36.56 0.125 73.42% -0.462 -0.0895
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6379 9.63% 49.69 5.584 79.7% -0.277 0.0878
Powers Long Forgotten 1 318 55.52% 32.31 -0.959 65.41% -0.963 -0.5214
Rituals of Terror 3 224 46.79% 39.2 2.902 69.64% -0.809 -0.1748
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 132 63.85% 37.15 1.452 68.18% -0.632 0.009
Second Wave 0 3204 32.05% 30.9 -0.819 86.52% -0.181 0.2433
Ward the Shores 2 351 38.39% 35.85 0.216 63.53% -1.305 -0.2634

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1278 35.59 -1.06 62.99% -1.429 0.6413
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1330 37.01 -0.344 63.23% -1.395 0.5272
All Things Weaken 439 32.56 -2.358 55.35% -1.838 0.3154
Back Against the Wall 1400 36.63 -0.698 60.93% -1.485 0.6117
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1224 31.79 -3.009 56.78% -1.727 0.4984
Downward Spiral 2155 30.9 -2.588 62.23% -1.725 0.2941
Erosion of Will 1162 34.02 -1.863 58.86% -1.658 0.5528
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 229 37.44 -0.112 73.8% -0.9 -0.206
Memory Fades to Dust 2263 31.31 -2.437 61.69% -1.705 0.5104
Power Corrodes the Spirit 397 33.54 -1.753 59.7% -1.526 0.4908
Promising Farmlands 1183 32.89 -2.474 56.8% -1.745 0.4684
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 154 40.05 0.998 81.17% -0.482 -0.0518
Thriving Communities 450 32.09 -2.528 56.67% -1.713 0.3824
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.01 55.23% -1.727 0.4939
Unnatural Proliferation 464 32.98 -1.913 57.54% -1.775 0.3117
Untended Land Crumbles 408 32.45 -2.538 53.92% -1.845 0.2515

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 34934 32.29% 35.83 -0.103 81.12% 0.022 -1.0797
B 39496 32.3% 36.01 -0.026 81.23% 0.176 -1.0205
C 35251 32.01% 36.0 0.06 81.14% -0.066 -1.4944
D 34334 33.25% 35.37 -0.719 80.91% -0.202 -1.3933
E 8476 34.85% 37.2 0.313 80.34% 0.241 -1.0576
F 13928 33.1% 37.13 -0.067 80.36% -0.139 -1.3935
G 13685 33.65% 37.32 0.287 80.2% -0.037 -1.2794
H 13392 33.35% 37.49 0.355 80.7% 0.079 -1.1784

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2108 0.0% 27.46 -3.746 78.27% -1.904 0.1444
Not Using Events or Tokens 7007 25.9% 30.28 -1.689 84.96% 0.066 0.2866
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3048 6.89% 41.55 2.633 95.21% 1.411 0.7062
Start of Game Growth 4368 14.21% 42.24 2.387 86.38% -0.218 -0.6694
Unlimited Undo 6228 22.84% 39.85 1.974 88.58% 0.621 0.2043
Using Tokens but Not Events 5163 21.94% 35.82 -0.4 85.94% 0.315 0.2642

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6550 22.33 37.28%
II 17658 30.75 78.03%
III 17381 34.25 93.23%
IV 6785 37.47 99.07%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1875
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9555
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5018
Lose: Invader deck ran out 219
Lose: Adversary condition 3352
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Scenario condition 1198
Win: Scenario condition 1710
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4030
Lose: Spirit destroyed 427

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)