Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 21.43% 25.67 80.0% -0.057 -0.3125 -0.844
Blitz 0 1065 22.53% 36.67 81.41% 1.01 1.2076 0.581
Dahan Insurrection 4 1889 22.25% 63.37 82.58% -0.236 -0.6783 1.078
Despicable Theft 2 82 38.27% 31.26 76.83% -0.829 -0.0167 -0.571
Elemental Invocation 1 172 52.33% 33.69 64.53% -0.733 -0.0297 -0.719
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7355 9.4% 51.58 81.52% 0.68 0.035 0.961
Powers Long Forgotten 1 290 51.74% 30.77 62.07% -1.401 -0.7658 -1.141
Rituals of Terror 3 201 47.96% 38.2 69.65% -0.591 -0.4899 -0.005
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 123 62.3% 36.41 62.6% -1.211 -0.2014 -0.733
Second Wave 0 3348 31.92% 30.01 86.44% 0.376 0.4423 0.741
Varied Terrains 2 38 44.74% 28.89 68.42% 0.507 1.1297 -0.475
Ward the Shores 2 386 44.12% 33.39 62.18% -0.526 0.5585 -0.555

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1729 35.99 62.7% 0.265 0.5077 -0.139
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1850 37.08 63.51% 0.029 -0.049 -0.153
All Things Weaken 825 34.63 57.82% -0.465 -0.0726 -0.543
Attenuated Essence 29 25.93 51.72% 0.278 0.385 -0.071
Back Against the Wall 1910 36.66 60.37% -0.216 -0.1583 -0.282
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 39 34.28 48.72% -0.253 -0.0512 -0.652
Burn Brightest Before the End 34 34.85 50.0% -0.303 -0.0925 0.169
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1705 33.16 59.12% 0.215 0.6387 -0.491
Downward Spiral 3011 31.19 62.64% 0.126 0.3612 -0.357
Erosion of Will 1686 35.34 59.73% -0.543 -0.2335 -0.332
Intensifying Exploitation 36 28.64 50.0% -0.195 0.0928 -0.328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 468 38.54 76.71% 0.821 0.3269 -0.004
Memory Fades to Dust 3108 31.47 62.32% -0.479 -0.1425 -0.379
Power Corrodes the Spirit 798 33.93 58.52% -0.123 0.0974 -0.731
Promising Farmlands 1631 33.51 57.45% -0.235 0.2183 -0.47
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 35.6 53.49% 0.198 0.2486 0.482
Slow Dissolution of Will 32 29.59 37.5% -0.315 0.0845 -0.916
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 327 40.18 80.43% 0.298 -0.4129 0.111
The Border of Life and Death 11 45.09 90.91% 0.922 0.5862 -0.542
Thriving Communities 810 33.2 56.91% -0.174 0.1884 -0.566
Thriving Crops 25 31.84 68.0% 0.408 0.2098 -0.166
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.423
Unnatural Proliferation 907 35.69 61.3% -0.117 0.0979 -0.215
Untended Land Crumbles 755 33.26 56.95% -0.692 -0.4105 -0.388

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 49584 31.53% 35.71 80.45% 0.537 1.2773 0.086
B 54815 31.4% 35.77 80.66% -0.261 0.4647 0.219
C 50265 31.33% 35.78 80.5% -0.094 0.4878 -0.155
D 48141 32.44% 35.03 80.29% -0.136 0.5751 -0.155
E 17095 34.77% 36.25 78.95% -0.341 0.2241 0.137
F 23312 33.5% 36.35 79.31% -0.048 0.6225 -0.123
G 22350 33.35% 36.52 79.59% -0.17 0.4816 -0.196
H 22260 33.48% 36.69 79.97% 0.465 1.0357 0.159

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2858 0.0% 26.84 76.45% -0.312 0.4646 0.848
Not Using Events or Tokens 10265 24.79% 30.18 82.73% -0.032 0.3475 0.412
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4156 7.08% 40.73 94.42% 1.067 0.4493 0.819
Start of Game Growth 5914 14.52% 42.36 85.85% -0.631 -0.9795 -0.257
Unlimited Undo 9033 24.05% 39.06 87.61% -0.022 -0.0289 0.989
Using Tokens but Not Events 7857 19.43% 34.35 85.49% 0.03 0.0201 0.391

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10513 20.4 35.14%
II 25923 31.01 78.29%
III 25554 34.76 93.25%
IV 10109 38.07 99.17%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3694
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22807
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19041
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9977
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1239
Lose: Invader deck ran out 333
Lose: Adversary condition 4900
Win: Sacrifice victory 79
Lose: Scenario condition 1512
Win: Scenario condition 2244
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5688
Lose: Spirit destroyed 585

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)