Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 38 35.14% 31.11 76.32% -0.51 -0.9371 -0.051
Blitz 0 1360 20.98% 37.4 79.34% 0.375 0.7111 1.489
Dahan Insurrection 4 2433 20.19% 56.96 76.08% 0.808 0.3586 1.562
Despicable Theft 2 146 33.1% 24.08 54.79% -0.97 -0.3436 -1.523
Elemental Invocation 1 241 51.04% 30.8 58.92% -0.328 0.4143 -0.722
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8858 9.17% 50.24 79.78% 0.781 0.1397 1.473
Powers Long Forgotten 1 397 50.89% 26.86 54.16% -1.079 -0.4456 -0.906
Rituals of Terror 3 335 38.3% 29.47 53.73% -0.048 -0.1284 -0.804
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 154 61.44% 33.27 59.09% -0.213 0.5311 -0.472
Second Wave 0 4136 30.1% 28.98 83.29% 0.472 0.5697 0.896
Varied Terrains 2 112 45.54% 25.91 61.61% 0.372 1.146 -0.738
Ward the Shores 2 623 32.78% 24.18 44.94% -0.751 0.222 -1.491

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2040 35.34 60.74% 0.491 0.5449 0.59
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2182 37.16 63.93% 1.294 1.13 0.74
All Things Weaken 1128 32.85 55.05% -0.494 -0.3177 0.142
Attenuated Essence 227 31.71 55.51% -0.702 -0.7033 0.562
Back Against the Wall 2218 36.43 60.37% 0.645 0.6044 0.597
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 234 34.3 58.97% 0.275 0.457 0.247
Burn Brightest Before the End 251 35.3 56.97% 0.064 0.0641 0.185
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2004 32.35 58.23% -0.585 -0.2972 0.379
Downward Spiral 3873 29.39 60.29% 0.417 0.4807 0.492
Erosion of Will 1984 34.46 58.01% -0.261 -0.0914 0.401
Intensifying Exploitation 202 30.78 52.97% 0.207 0.3112 0.448
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 622 36.73 73.79% 1.082 0.5869 0.428
Memory Fades to Dust 3976 29.93 59.78% 0.163 0.3701 0.399
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1098 32.76 57.47% -0.031 0.0812 0.009
Promising Farmlands 2002 32.91 56.64% 0.328 0.5992 0.298
Shattered Fragments of Power 245 33.46 55.92% -0.577 -0.5037 0.732
Slow Dissolution of Will 240 28.36 43.33% -0.906 -0.4906 -0.753
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 412 38.23 75.73% 0.061 -0.5864 0.726
The Border of Life and Death 89 28.75 62.92% -0.209 -0.6198 -0.708
Thriving Communities 1171 32.19 55.08% 0.403 0.6296 0.107
Thriving Crops 185 30.65 64.86% 0.939 0.7132 -0.192
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% 0.542
Unnatural Proliferation 1210 35.08 59.67% -0.395 -0.3575 0.448
Untended Land Crumbles 1060 32.08 55.28% 0.146 0.3627 0.299

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65819 30.41% 32.45 73.11% 0.023 0.9616 0.081
B 72824 29.82% 32.13 72.37% -0.068 0.7917 -0.03
C 66524 30.14% 32.54 73.14% 0.07 0.7653 -0.038
D 63803 31.11% 31.69 72.73% -0.109 0.7395 -0.078
E 25502 34.22% 32.77 71.81% 0.138 0.8103 0.016
F 32847 32.33% 32.25 70.87% -0.119 0.6726 -0.035
G 31767 32.16% 32.26 70.95% 0.099 0.8574 -0.07
H 31600 32.13% 32.4 70.92% 0.019 0.7433 0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3958 0.0% 22.69 67.56% -0.622 0.0644 0.691
Not Using Events or Tokens 14650 24.97% 26.5 71.88% -0.402 0.0806 0.279
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5041 6.78% 39.18 89.19% 0.451 -0.2983 1.402
Start of Game Growth 7013 13.86% 40.58 82.2% 0.071 -0.341 0.514
Unlimited Undo 13883 20.45% 31.64 69.98% 0.276 0.2217 -0.259
Using Tokens but Not Events 10453 20.42% 31.2 79.08% 0.034 -0.0878 0.174

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21258 14.12 20.72%
II 31692 30.27 75.5%
III 32047 34.84 92.75%
IV 12938 38.63 99.1%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4404
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 28533
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22525
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12738
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11060
Lose: Invader deck ran out 406
Lose: Adversary condition 6100
Win: Sacrifice victory 102
Lose: Scenario condition 1715
Win: Scenario condition 2573
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7061
Lose: Spirit destroyed 718

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-28 02:06:15 (Pacific Time)