Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Trapezoid (Default) (4 Boards)

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Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	20843	27.96%	36.27	0.101	82.81%	0.341	0.4452
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7846	43.17%	32.83	-1.318	77.12%	0.016	0.2135
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	6385	30.43%	33.83	-1.011	81.97%	0.176	0.0627
Eyes Watch From the Trees	7542	27.57%	36.3	-0.03	84.62%	0.373	-0.0306
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	6093	30.38%	33.95	-1.089	80.96%	0.182	-0.1231
Fractured Days Split the Sky	1494	31.17%	42.01	2.452	83.67%	0.646	0.9948
Heart of the Wildfire	7856	44.98%	33.5	-1.13	77.55%	0.194	0.5123
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	15492	31.35%	40.43	1.395	81.66%	0.47	0.1278
Lightning's Swift Strike	18311	30.42%	34.91	-0.2	82.63%	0.319	0.5452
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	3514	37.33%	37.18	-0.176	79.2%	0.28	-0.007

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	334	33.23%	27.78	-2.346	81.74%	-0.87	-0.5805
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	199	37.69%	32.69	0.293	86.43%	-0.404	0.0098
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	332	50.6%	39.88	3.85	81.93%	-0.615	0.2686
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	417	53.14%	39.95	3.474	71.7%	-1.308	-0.0659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	197	77.32%	39.02	3.18	50.25%	-1.814	-0.3171
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	87	71.26%	39.05	3.431	42.53%	-2.264	-0.3255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	362	84.96%	38.05	3.266	33.43%	-2.585	-0.5425
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	1374	22.76%	26.28	-2.921	93.01%	0.213	0.2541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1074	28.11%	31.45	-0.393	91.71%	0.077	0.0592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1680	30.6%	40.91	4.278	91.55%	0.094	0.108

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	926	23.79%	31.57	-1.664	84.99%	-0.22	0.3457
Dahan Insurrection	4	1955	22.63%	62.5	12.714	83.32%	-0.035	0.3658
Despicable Theft	2	49	42.86%	33.73	0.714	85.71%	-0.229	0.0452
Elemental Invocation	1	118	52.54%	35.52	-0.462	67.8%	-0.588	-0.085
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	7192	9.39%	50.15	5.707	80.31%	-0.261	0.1044
Powers Long Forgotten	1	343	54.39%	32.25	-1.037	65.01%	-1.028	-0.5812
Rituals of Terror	3	249	47.74%	39.14	2.982	70.28%	-0.789	-0.1439
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	135	63.16%	37.32	1.428	68.15%	-0.664	-0.0168
Second Wave	0	3602	32.29%	30.88	-0.885	86.48%	-0.185	0.2447
Ward the Shores	2	397	40.31%	35.26	-0.105	61.46%	-1.446	-0.4139

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	1387	35.73	-1.063	62.87%	-1.445	0.6245
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1484	36.88	-0.409	63.75%	-1.398	0.5152
All Things Weaken	539	32.91	-2.23	56.96%	-1.81	0.3496
Back Against the Wall	1531	36.65	-0.701	61.4%	-1.49	0.5971
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1351	32.12	-2.883	57.51%	-1.708	0.5142
Downward Spiral	2376	31.1	-2.54	62.75%	-1.695	0.3263
Erosion of Will	1276	34.23	-1.787	59.72%	-1.633	0.5744
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	293	37.75	0.117	74.74%	-0.87	-0.1915
Memory Fades to Dust	2481	31.34	-2.423	62.19%	-1.686	0.5285
Power Corrodes the Spirit	505	33.43	-1.937	59.21%	-1.605	0.4163
Promising Farmlands	1308	32.9	-2.446	57.57%	-1.727	0.4812
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	201	38.86	0.492	80.6%	-0.563	-0.1514
Thriving Communities	560	32.89	-2.228	58.57%	-1.658	0.4296
Tipping Point	621	34.22	-2.055	55.23%	-1.737	0.488
Unnatural Proliferation	596	34.33	-1.392	59.4%	-1.684	0.3963
Untended Land Crumbles	508	32.39	-2.532	54.72%	-1.86	0.2421

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	38721	32.0%	35.98	-0.066	81.41%	0.032	-0.656
B	43497	31.98%	36.13	-0.024	81.49%	0.129	-0.655
C	39115	31.8%	36.13	0.073	81.44%	-0.025	-1.0382
D	37841	33.04%	35.5	-0.666	81.18%	-0.199	-0.9766
E	10688	34.97%	37.13	0.252	80.86%	0.195	-0.6993
F	16457	33.05%	37.06	-0.111	80.85%	-0.151	-0.9922
G	16013	33.41%	37.31	0.271	80.81%	0.003	-0.8286
H	15756	33.33%	37.46	0.348	81.23%	0.084	-0.7554

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	2282	0.0%	27.75	-3.667	78.66%	-1.864	0.1893
Not Using Events or Tokens	7682	25.82%	30.49	-1.642	84.81%	0.032	0.2467
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3405	7.54%	41.17	2.416	94.98%	1.299	0.6124
Start of Game Growth	4894	14.67%	42.56	2.509	86.68%	-0.154	-0.6225
Unlimited Undo	6935	23.45%	39.73	1.855	88.71%	0.61	0.1865
Using Tokens but Not Events	5831	21.3%	36.2	-0.329	86.37%	0.301	0.2503

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	7258	22.37	37.79%
II	19844	30.88	78.27%
III	19590	34.39	93.3%
IV	7830	37.55	99.04%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	3750
Lose: Blight pool ran out	4423
Lose: Invader deck ran out	255
Lose: Scenario condition	1317
Lose: Spirit destroyed	470
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2176
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	11224
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	13468
Win: Sacrifice victory	50
Win: Scenario condition	1872
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6036

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)