Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 23.08% 24.71 78.57% -0.343 -0.5106 -0.864
Blitz 0 1043 22.92% 36.42 81.21% 0.808 0.958 0.534
Dahan Insurrection 4 1870 22.26% 63.8 83.26% -0.08 -0.2921 1.117
Despicable Theft 2 81 38.75% 31.64 77.78% -0.84 -0.1239 -0.603
Elemental Invocation 1 170 52.35% 33.84 65.29% -0.635 0.1159 -0.715
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7310 9.37% 51.69 81.7% 0.627 0.0182 0.886
Powers Long Forgotten 1 282 51.79% 31.2 62.77% -1.323 -0.8236 -1.09
Rituals of Terror 3 198 47.67% 38.43 69.7% -0.55 -0.4424 -0.032
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 121 63.33% 37.02 63.64% -0.974 0.0792 -0.728
Second Wave 0 3309 31.72% 30.05 86.55% -0.144 -0.0641 0.654
Varied Terrains 2 31 41.94% 29.61 70.97% 0.266 0.8477 -0.483
Ward the Shores 2 375 44.08% 33.78 62.13% -1.303 -0.1016 -0.554

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1708 35.93 62.53% 0.081 0.3474 -0.244
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1829 37.16 63.75% -0.678 -0.6715 -0.241
All Things Weaken 804 34.7 58.46% 0.034 0.47 -0.634
Attenuated Essence 21 17.38 33.33% -1.066 -0.8754 -0.411
Back Against the Wall 1897 36.7 60.2% -0.201 -0.0599 -0.355
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 34.73 53.85% -0.0 0.3836 -0.181
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 37.5 56.67% 0.016 0.3094 0.195
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1687 33.05 59.1% 0.046 0.5481 -0.588
Downward Spiral 2972 31.26 62.69% -0.102 0.2275 -0.444
Erosion of Will 1675 35.37 59.7% -0.087 0.2981 -0.417
Intensifying Exploitation 30 27.53 46.67% -0.709 -0.3419 -0.263
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 458 38.32 76.64% 1.075 0.5555 -0.093
Memory Fades to Dust 3080 31.47 62.21% -0.72 -0.2539 -0.45
Power Corrodes the Spirit 774 34.05 58.4% -0.461 -0.1712 -0.798
Promising Farmlands 1612 33.57 57.69% -0.359 0.2102 -0.541
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 38.17 60.0% 0.438 0.5903 0.731
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 29.35 38.46% -0.656 -0.1532 -0.646
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 322 40.38 80.75% 0.185 -0.4682 0.069
The Border of Life and Death 7 40.57 85.71% 0.414 0.2356 -0.561
Thriving Communities 796 33.17 57.04% -0.441 0.0201 -0.65
Thriving Crops 18 31.56 66.67% 0.659 0.7064 -0.238
Tipping Point 621 34.22 55.23% -0.487
Unnatural Proliferation 899 35.89 61.62% 0.367 0.6585 -0.27
Untended Land Crumbles 745 33.4 57.05% -0.498 -0.1772 -0.469

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 48805 31.64% 35.92 80.88% 0.57 1.4066 0.092
B 54007 31.5% 35.98 81.09% -0.11 0.6703 0.218
C 49455 31.46% 36.01 80.94% -0.22 0.433 -0.148
D 47354 32.56% 35.25 80.72% -0.179 0.6185 -0.169
E 16665 34.93% 36.5 79.45% -0.274 0.3507 0.129
F 22901 33.58% 36.57 79.73% -0.075 0.6437 -0.139
G 21954 33.38% 36.73 80.0% -0.293 0.4506 -0.191
H 21829 33.55% 36.94 80.41% 0.585 1.23 0.18

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2816 0.0% 26.99 76.92% -0.59 0.2903 0.542
Not Using Events or Tokens 9997 25.15% 30.54 83.64% 0.172 0.498 0.414
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4113 7.12% 40.85 94.7% 0.773 0.2323 0.619
Start of Game Growth 5839 14.69% 42.6 86.37% -0.255 -0.5739 -0.12
Unlimited Undo 8841 24.14% 39.44 88.43% 0.27 0.2559 1.185
Using Tokens but Not Events 7735 19.4% 34.58 86.08% 0.395 0.3382 0.516

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10044 20.97 36.39%
II 25588 31.03 78.35%
III 25241 34.74 93.28%
IV 10002 38.02 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3655
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22530
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18798
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9873
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 811
Lose: Invader deck ran out 332
Lose: Adversary condition 4860
Win: Sacrifice victory 78
Lose: Scenario condition 1500
Win: Scenario condition 2234
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5629
Lose: Spirit destroyed 575

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)