Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 330 33.33% 27.75 -2.355 81.52% -0.875 -0.5914
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 198 37.88% 32.68 0.281 86.36% -0.401 0.01
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 325 50.77% 39.8 3.837 81.85% -0.606 0.2701
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 405 52.74% 40.18 3.578 72.35% -1.271 -0.0254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 190 76.47% 38.93 3.142 50.0% -1.813 -0.311
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 82 74.39% 37.57 2.711 39.02% -2.339 -0.3859
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 353 85.71% 37.78 3.179 32.86% -2.588 -0.5448
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1353 22.9% 26.24 -2.923 92.9% 0.206 0.2475
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1053 28.46% 31.45 -0.383 91.64% 0.082 0.063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1634 30.36% 40.83 4.278 91.86% 0.14 0.153
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1697 36.09% 48.46 7.724 90.63% 0.039 0.3269
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1142 36.77% 50.31 8.687 89.84% -0.082 0.2848
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 444 48.84% 53.68 10.456 77.93% -0.806 0.0208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1276 67.1% 52.01 9.543 64.81% -1.425 -0.1873
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1093 22.37% 25.49 -3.424 85.09% -0.71 -0.3787
The Kingdom of England 1 3 600 32.94% 33.81 0.473 80.5% -0.915 -0.4016
The Kingdom of England 2 4 956 40.71% 34.36 0.974 70.92% -1.413 -0.4449
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1368 47.54% 37.89 1.889 58.19% -2.06 -0.4809
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3175 18.44% 51.33 7.346 77.89% -1.443 0.0558
The Kingdom of England 5 9 600 33.73% 51.29 8.178 59.0% -2.355 -0.2822
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2374 38.13% 53.91 9.936 59.06% -2.272 -0.0239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 756 35.23% 29.39 -1.658 84.66% -0.541 -0.0266
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 366 53.19% 31.5 -0.584 73.5% -1.028 -0.1289
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 932 42.08% 38.05 2.166 62.45% -1.881 0.2619
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 903 49.89% 44.27 5.228 61.9% -1.856 0.3405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 958 44.92% 51.11 8.185 67.01% -1.743 0.4152
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 846 50.59% 58.84 11.85 76.12% -0.989 0.8287
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2492 48.5% 58.07 11.554 62.76% -1.826 0.2714
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 781 26.26% 25.24 -3.435 92.45% 0.187 0.2725
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 508 30.18% 30.5 -1.045 88.39% -0.234 -0.2005
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1065 32.25% 33.56 0.856 89.3% -0.05 0.1853
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 934 41.36% 43.6 5.565 89.83% 0.049 0.3357
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 570 59.5% 40.55 3.866 71.58% -1.029 -0.2453
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 224 50.0% 45.46 5.997 73.66% -1.067 0.0994
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1908 56.46% 46.98 6.693 69.18% -1.328 -0.2042
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 190 20.0% 26.38 -3.423 93.16% -0.003 -0.1048
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 132 46.97% 35.09 0.951 85.61% -0.336 0.4433
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 190 33.68% 40.54 3.79 92.63% 0.157 0.5762
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 176 56.32% 43.87 5.46 77.27% -0.928 0.3261
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 104 50.96% 48.85 7.597 77.88% -0.926 0.1905
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 105 85.71% 38.77 3.219 34.29% -2.404 -0.4052
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 323 77.56% 49.78 8.156 42.11% -2.428 -0.5494

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 903 24.18% 31.77 -1.586 84.72% -0.233 0.336
Dahan Insurrection 4 1930 22.72% 62.46 12.681 83.21% -0.038 0.3598
Despicable Theft 2 45 40.0% 34.49 1.095 84.44% -0.344 -0.0743
Elemental Invocation 1 114 50.88% 35.77 -0.282 69.3% -0.563 -0.0986
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7066 9.47% 50.08 5.672 80.2% -0.273 0.0937
Powers Long Forgotten 1 342 54.55% 32.22 -1.046 64.91% -1.029 -0.5837
Rituals of Terror 3 246 47.92% 39.04 2.942 69.92% -0.802 -0.157
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 134 63.64% 37.34 1.47 68.66% -0.637 0.0082
Second Wave 0 3534 32.29% 30.84 -0.886 86.45% -0.188 0.2406
Ward the Shores 2 392 40.85% 35.24 -0.12 61.22% -1.447 -0.4133

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1371 35.63 -1.098 62.73% -1.455 0.6179
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1465 36.87 -0.411 63.69% -1.404 0.514
All Things Weaken 517 32.93 -2.254 56.09% -1.845 0.3249
Back Against the Wall 1513 36.71 -0.687 61.34% -1.494 0.5974
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1334 32.09 -2.884 57.65% -1.704 0.5208
Downward Spiral 2349 31.11 -2.523 62.84% -1.693 0.3297
Erosion of Will 1255 34.29 -1.769 59.6% -1.641 0.5685
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 285 37.53 0.006 74.39% -0.903 -0.2163
Memory Fades to Dust 2449 31.33 -2.423 62.19% -1.683 0.5353
Power Corrodes the Spirit 491 33.2 -2.026 59.27% -1.623 0.4013
Promising Farmlands 1286 32.94 -2.424 57.7% -1.724 0.4901
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 193 38.63 0.457 80.83% -0.557 -0.1469
Thriving Communities 544 32.89 -2.239 58.46% -1.668 0.4265
Tipping Point 621 34.22 -2.044 55.23% -1.736 0.49
Unnatural Proliferation 578 34.16 -1.455 59.69% -1.685 0.4015
Untended Land Crumbles 489 32.25 -2.576 54.4% -1.881 0.2249

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 38152 32.04% 35.96 -0.065 81.38% 0.039 -0.7216
B 42880 32.02% 36.11 -0.033 81.44% 0.121 -0.7362
C 38538 31.85% 36.11 0.065 81.38% -0.037 -1.1254
D 37298 33.07% 35.47 -0.672 81.14% -0.196 -1.0458
E 10351 35.12% 37.13 0.25 80.84% 0.194 -0.7711
F 16067 33.12% 37.06 -0.107 80.84% -0.141 -1.0548
G 15646 33.51% 37.34 0.288 80.77% 0.001 -0.9046
H 15392 33.34% 37.46 0.348 81.2% 0.088 -0.826

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2262 0.0% 27.74 -3.679 78.56% -1.868 0.1881
Not Using Events or Tokens 7557 25.85% 30.42 -1.657 84.8% 0.03 0.246
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3359 7.49% 41.26 2.449 94.97% 1.294 0.6073
Start of Game Growth 4803 14.44% 42.55 2.503 86.74% -0.156 -0.6265
Unlimited Undo 6808 23.52% 39.84 1.91 88.69% 0.62 0.1996
Using Tokens but Not Events 5705 21.66% 36.17 -0.321 86.15% 0.294 0.2419

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7157 22.35 37.81%
II 19489 30.84 78.3%
III 19261 34.35 93.24%
IV 7674 37.52 99.02%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2139
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13160
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10966
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5883
Lose: Invader deck ran out 254
Lose: Adversary condition 3676
Win: Sacrifice victory 49
Lose: Scenario condition 1300
Win: Scenario condition 1845
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4365
Lose: Spirit destroyed 463

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)