Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 13 30.77% 21.85 -7.669 76.92% -0.315 0.0879
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 14 35.71% 37.14 6.206 92.86% 0.493 0.5581
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 23 26.09% 29.04 4.11 65.22% 0.221 0.6148
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 25 36.0% 34.64 7.216 68.0% 0.271 0.4621
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 21 57.14% 39.57 3.223 66.67% -0.335 0.4308
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 12 66.67% 36.92 17.261 50.0% 0.845 2.0128
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 51 68.63% 29.2 -0.456 25.49% -1.126 0.7745
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 91 42.86% 27.22 8.749 79.12% 0.245 0.6255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 78 39.74% 26.92 -1.999 67.95% 0.111 0.5077
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 126 45.97% 37.27 -4.688 73.02% -0.325 0.4553
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 162 51.85% 36.7 2.814 64.2% -0.087 0.9636
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 128 91.41% 35.88 14.505 46.09% 0.386 1.8691
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 78 87.18% 36.29 21.672 41.03% 0.387 1.9824
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 268 72.01% 37.09 2.894 39.18% -1.323 0.4083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 504 31.54% 23.24 3.058 83.33% 1.56 1.8191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 561 34.59% 27.35 -0.467 78.79% -0.18 -0.2098
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 700 39.31% 37.55 4.657 84.0% 0.822 0.7881
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 642 44.69% 39.23 7.239 74.14% 0.279 0.7222
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 550 43.61% 44.78 9.273 78.73% 0.24 0.4939
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 220 61.64% 46.19 9.474 66.36% 0.228 0.7809
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 660 73.59% 40.07 2.318 47.12% -0.83 0.4526
The Kingdom of England 0 1 340 29.34% 23.39 4.28 77.65% 1.337 1.6333
The Kingdom of England 1 3 274 43.59% 28.93 1.016 71.17% 0.385 0.8749
The Kingdom of England 2 4 371 55.68% 29.38 1.754 62.8% -0.164 0.3736
The Kingdom of England 3 6 497 57.49% 32.93 6.816 52.92% 0.374 1.6295
The Kingdom of England 4 7 435 58.0% 36.93 1.673 54.02% -0.645 0.344
The Kingdom of England 5 9 169 52.07% 33.11 -8.522 34.91% -0.446 1.1129
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1009 55.95% 41.0 2.953 43.51% -1.066 0.8146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 143 36.43% 27.41 3.245 80.42% 0.468 0.9506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 141 63.12% 28.13 -4.502 70.21% -0.66 0.0694
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 274 52.92% 33.79 1.255 56.2% -0.931 0.1994
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 249 58.87% 36.79 6.208 49.4% 0.35 1.7358
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 327 54.13% 44.16 -11.742 56.57% -0.361 1.0343
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 100 56.0% 46.54 -3.728 53.0% -0.793 0.3032
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 832 59.01% 49.16 2.941 48.68% -1.442 -0.0467
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 64 26.56% 19.52 59.38%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 56 44.64% 27.14 60.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 114 44.74% 31.85 3.897 71.93% 0.154 0.6516
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 183 48.09% 41.38 6.455 77.05% 0.045 0.2414
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 193 35.75% 33.99 4.723 58.03% -0.074 0.5827
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 174 47.13% 46.81 9.343 72.99% 0.308 0.7465
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 529 61.25% 38.11 -0.295 41.97% -1.501 -0.3403
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 226 34.22% 20.97 -7.269 76.55% -0.762 -0.6367
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 209 40.49% 27.31 0.559 77.99% 0.275 0.4094
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 302 44.48% 31.49 -1.537 79.47% -0.312 -0.0341
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 322 56.52% 35.03 7.728 69.25% 0.99 1.3005
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 186 71.89% 35.15 -1.343 65.05% -0.709 0.0665
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 101 60.4% 35.1 7.809 49.5% -0.003 0.907
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 596 62.9% 38.99 1.789 55.7% -0.829 0.1251
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 69 30.43% 24.43 -3.586 75.36% -0.438 -0.3667
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 65 53.85% 33.11 0.452 84.62% -0.385 0.3515
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 73 34.25% 37.85 1.98 82.19% -0.12 0.3807
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 107 58.88% 40.4 2.766 69.16% -0.215 0.8309
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 141 41.84% 43.32 -7.397 70.21% -0.442 0.3921
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 107 42.06% 27.87 -0.106 32.71% -0.188 1.5003
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 319 63.01% 33.26 -5.89 27.9% -1.798 -0.3365

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 57 24.56% 23.79 82.46% 0.63 0.3674 -0.271
Blitz 0 135 44.36% 31.16 70.37% 0.784 1.1488 -0.422
Dahan Insurrection 4 166 31.9% 51.31 69.28% 0.982 0.8495 0.418
Despicable Theft 2 27 55.56% 27.0 55.56% -0.287 0.3363 0.084
Elemental Invocation 1 43 48.84% 27.67 65.12% 0.163 1.1117 -0.343
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 297 12.15% 39.16 71.38% -0.108 -0.5692 0.533
Powers Long Forgotten 1 71 47.89% 26.99 60.56% -1.359 -0.3565 -0.611
Rituals of Terror 3 54 31.48% 39.0 74.07% -0.57 -0.4332 0.494
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 68.0% 33.8 80.0% -0.288
Second Wave 0 740 40.46% 30.74 77.03% 1.046 1.0958 0.833
Varied Terrains 2 42 52.38% 34.62 69.05% -0.588
Ward the Shores 2 90 49.43% 29.56 60.0% 0.013 0.9711 -0.415

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 551 35.0 58.08% -1.531 -1.3551 0.169
Aid From Lesser Spirits 583 36.08 60.03% 1.144 1.0402 0.522
All Things Weaken 342 32.29 56.73% -0.518 -0.2889 0.168
Attenuated Essence 118 33.8 52.54% 0.461 0.4961 -0.301
Back Against the Wall 575 34.83 57.04% 0.494 0.472 0.115
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 108 29.7 50.93% 0.66 0.7648 0.064
Burn Brightest Before the End 106 31.78 51.89% 0.169 0.3087 -0.041
Disintegrating Ecosystem 511 29.96 52.25% 1.206 1.5647 -0.206
Downward Spiral 1237 26.94 59.18% -0.062 0.0214 0.324
Erosion of Will 537 31.32 51.96% -0.512 -0.258 -0.207
Intensifying Exploitation 123 30.75 49.59% 0.651 0.9074 0.097
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 165 34.35 79.39% 0.502 0.0991 0.621
Memory Fades to Dust 1210 26.65 57.85% -0.233 0.0464 0.379
Power Corrodes the Spirit 346 32.89 55.2% 0.6 0.8722 0.185
Promising Farmlands 575 29.13 52.87% -0.363 -0.0706 -0.352
Shattered Fragments of Power 119 34.65 54.62% -0.597 -0.4618 0.155
Slow Dissolution of Will 90 32.18 46.67% 0.381 0.7425 -0.051
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 80 40.69 87.5% -0.526 -1.085 1.011
The Border of Life and Death 27 29.63 66.67% -0.347 -0.7131 -0.334
Thriving Communities 404 30.93 51.73% -1.044 -0.726 -0.17
Thriving Crops 63 34.35 66.67% 0.382 0.259 0.685
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.1
Unnatural Proliferation 416 36.08 61.06% -0.323 -0.2332 0.31
Untended Land Crumbles 401 31.26 51.87% -0.843 -0.5741 0.079

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7661 43.48% 28.9 66.48% -0.245 0.904 -0.091
B 7335 43.16% 28.8 66.48% -0.097 0.9714 -0.094
C 7413 43.27% 30.28 67.96% -0.198 0.7209 0.069
D 7547 45.05% 28.91 66.49% -0.061 1.0023 -0.181
E 3134 47.76% 33.03 67.01% 0.163 1.1169 0.159
F 3076 45.26% 31.68 70.25% 0.422 1.4247 -0.021
G 2569 45.6% 32.08 71.08% 0.46 1.4291 0.112
H 2711 44.21% 31.84 69.27% -0.43 0.5284 0.039

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 851 0.0% 14.4 55.35% -0.196 0.585 -0.088
Not Using Events or Tokens 3377 37.69% 19.98 64.88% -0.09 0.2313 -0.776
Skip Initial Invader Actions 410 22.33% 37.94 80.49% 0.626 -0.0156 1.303
Start of Game Growth 577 23.21% 35.85 80.24% -0.151 -0.73 0.327
Unlimited Undo 2178 36.39% 32.5 75.62% 0.267 0.0544 0.861
Using Tokens but Not Events 1849 34.75% 26.85 71.82% 0.54 0.4565 -0.18

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4034 12.75 8.5%
II 6770 30.01 66.2%
III 6849 34.87 89.21%
IV 3120 38.76 99.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 343
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6009
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4340
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3095
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2450
Lose: Invader deck ran out 178
Lose: Adversary condition 1257
Win: Sacrifice victory 48
Lose: Scenario condition 79
Win: Scenario condition 213
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2604
Lose: Spirit destroyed 157

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)