Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 46 39.13% 31.0 2.105 91.3% 0.671 1.2382
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 42 42.86% 32.14 -0.151 83.33% 0.149 0.8381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 72 41.43% 40.78 80.56%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 85 55.29% 38.28 -1.393 68.24% -0.31 1.0788
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 67 88.06% 38.42 -4.667 52.24% -0.915 0.7885
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 56 94.64% 36.34 37.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 129 88.37% 40.52 4.635 41.09% -0.64 1.5512
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 307 32.13% 25.63 -5.004 92.83% -0.294 -0.0061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 314 37.18% 29.51 -1.541 85.67% 0.023 -0.1937
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 400 38.19% 39.9 2.401 90.25% 0.391 0.6041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 365 49.45% 44.58 7.771 84.93% 0.537 1.0337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 322 42.5% 48.24 4.614 85.4% -0.236 0.3014
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 124 59.35% 51.05 7.32 74.19% -0.48 0.6988
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 329 79.69% 46.82 5.124 54.41% -0.967 0.6057
The Kingdom of England 0 1 187 31.89% 25.21 -2.357 84.49% 0.202 0.6167
The Kingdom of England 1 3 167 44.58% 31.51 1.24 77.84% 0.466 1.1793
The Kingdom of England 2 4 221 58.37% 32.32 2.436 69.68% 0.634 1.6631
The Kingdom of England 3 6 285 59.36% 37.45 3.331 61.05% -0.204 1.4545
The Kingdom of England 4 7 243 59.83% 39.74 -0.365 58.02% -0.949 0.6686
The Kingdom of England 5 9 87 59.77% 45.62 5.044 51.72% -0.543 1.5119
The Kingdom of England 6 11 578 59.0% 49.39 10.644 52.6% -0.472 1.933
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 95 32.61% 29.51 11.508 86.32% 0.079 0.8816
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 81 70.37% 29.3 0.738 76.54% 0.259 1.1321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 175 53.14% 36.22 7.831 62.29% 0.465 2.7355
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 142 65.96% 39.09 -0.533 52.82% -1.22 1.1119
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 264 52.27% 47.09 9.596 62.5% -0.369 2.0376
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 61 54.1% 53.21 8.23 63.93% -0.239 1.6235
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 498 57.43% 54.72 4.328 56.43% -1.811 0.5039
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 0.0% 34.0 0.298 100.0% 0.177 0.0249
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 40.0% 21.8 -3.289 40.0% -0.669 0.2171
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 14 28.57% 34.86 -0.054 78.57% -0.114 0.8617
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 14 57.14% 39.43 2.559 71.43% -0.148 0.5713
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 75.0% 49.25 8.996 75.0% -0.285 1.0076
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 12 50.0% 53.92 10.728 83.33% -0.151 1.2442
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 55 63.64% 56.8 10.919 63.64% -0.494 1.1458
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 141 33.57% 23.23 -5.827 85.11% -0.343 -0.2103
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 123 40.16% 28.85 -1.562 82.93% 0.27 0.2307
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 185 47.57% 33.41 0.061 88.11% 0.059 0.5377
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 192 58.33% 38.65 4.517 75.0% -0.074 0.1985
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 114 73.45% 38.4 0.656 71.05% -0.513 0.325
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 52 61.54% 40.6 14.707 61.54% 0.227 1.1
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 295 70.65% 44.98 7.001 65.76% -0.128 1.0913
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 30 16.67% 28.33 -1.579 93.33% 0.395 0.2606
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 32 56.25% 34.47 -0.837 87.5% 0.41 1.1874
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 35 40.0% 38.77 3.822 85.71% 0.231 0.7087
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 54 61.11% 43.52 5.977 75.93% 0.054 1.2328
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 55 61.82% 46.2 0.559 70.91% -0.703 0.6325
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 26 73.08% 47.69 5.403 53.85% -0.589 1.2608
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 120 76.67% 51.11 11.0 42.5% -0.994 0.9164

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 12.5% 25.88 100.0% 0.175 0.2835
Blitz 0 52 40.38% 29.75 76.92% 0.301 0.5684 -1.087
Dahan Insurrection 4 98 34.02% 58.44 80.61% 0.466 0.7989 0.878
Despicable Theft 2 13 38.46% 39.69 84.62% -0.2 0.0506 -0.067
Elemental Invocation 1 19 47.37% 31.0 89.47% 0.046 0.6946 -0.4
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 189 11.67% 43.12 75.13% 0.279 0.4453 0.063
Powers Long Forgotten 1 37 48.65% 30.46 70.27% 0.037 0.3632 -0.172
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.085 -0.0246 0.248
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.257
Second Wave 0 421 41.49% 30.99 80.52% -0.794 -0.3235 0.222
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.365 0.9004 0.244
Ward the Shores 2 54 50.0% 35.91 70.37% -0.047 1.1398 0.14

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 353 35.65 60.06% -0.337 1.4942 -0.495
Aid From Lesser Spirits 374 36.1 61.5% -0.057 1.597 -0.482
All Things Weaken 165 32.24 52.73% -0.568 1.4089 -0.657
Back Against the Wall 386 34.95 56.22% -0.903 0.956 -0.605
Disintegrating Ecosystem 307 30.43 53.09% -1.406 0.5685 -0.921
Downward Spiral 792 28.68 63.13% -1.404 0.4981 -0.409
Erosion of Will 336 32.14 54.46% -1.511 0.5331 -0.767
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 40.78 82.28% 0.227 0.7993 0.228
Memory Fades to Dust 779 28.1 62.0% -1.09 0.8895 -0.501
Power Corrodes the Spirit 166 33.8 57.23% -1.423 0.4688 -0.758
Promising Farmlands 373 30.51 55.23% -1.505 0.5341 -1.012
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 43 43.37 95.35% 0.086 0.5267 0.691
Thriving Communities 205 33.96 59.02% -1.694 0.27 -0.542
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.738
Unnatural Proliferation 204 38.47 62.25% -0.888 1.0184 -0.29
Untended Land Crumbles 178 32.19 51.12% -1.707 0.328 -0.657

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4190 45.28% 32.93 76.13% 0.449 1.2175 -0.12
B 3945 45.73% 32.35 75.84% 0.204 0.8962 -0.275
C 4086 46.14% 33.9 76.8% 0.312 0.8764 0.007
D 4436 46.75% 33.07 75.63% -0.387 0.3815 -0.282
E 1295 48.75% 37.81 76.37% 0.444 1.0429 0.267
F 1459 46.74% 35.23 79.3% -0.534 0.1754 0.259
G 1258 45.94% 34.86 78.7% -0.37 0.3556 0.121
H 1360 44.55% 35.59 78.16% -0.102 0.5887 0.031

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 462 0.0% 17.91 67.32% -1.051 0.9608
Not Using Events or Tokens 1837 42.51% 24.18 78.17% -0.377 -0.1631 -0.205
Skip Initial Invader Actions 225 15.88% 36.31 90.22% 0.3 0.2061 -0.208
Start of Game Growth 332 18.01% 37.0 89.46% 0.888 0.1804 -0.015
Unlimited Undo 1207 35.34% 36.43 85.42% 0.231 -0.4685 0.839
Using Tokens but Not Events 1005 34.48% 31.43 82.19% 0.43 0.3842 0.273

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1192 22.6 21.81%
II 3960 31.02 69.75%
III 3980 34.59 88.84%
IV 1901 37.83 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 260
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3461
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2653
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1890
Lose: Invader deck ran out 110
Lose: Adversary condition 771
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 57
Win: Scenario condition 161
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1544
Lose: Spirit destroyed 96

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)