Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 7.14% 27.71 100.0% 0.245 0.1933
Blitz 0 68 43.28% 33.29 76.47% 0.235 0.3933 -0.611
Dahan Insurrection 4 107 33.02% 58.55 81.31% 0.559 0.4019 0.93
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% 0.016
Elemental Invocation 1 24 50.0% 32.83 83.33% -0.152 0.5553 -0.255
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 203 12.37% 42.67 74.88% -0.286 -0.9243 0.076
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 53.49% 29.58 67.44% -0.323 0.1289 -0.149
Rituals of Terror 3 27 29.63% 42.44 85.19% 0.264 0.2354 0.264
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.267
Second Wave 0 477 40.59% 30.94 80.71% 0.118 0.1858 0.341
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 46.8 90.0% 0.077 0.6128 -0.244
Ward the Shores 2 60 50.0% 35.98 70.0% 0.087

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 397 36.03 60.71% 0.447 0.7357 -0.369
Aid From Lesser Spirits 420 36.31 61.19% -1.014 -0.9309 -0.149
All Things Weaken 203 32.97 55.17% -0.549 -0.071 -0.534
Attenuated Essence 8 26.63 25.0% -0.484 -0.1821 -0.668
Back Against the Wall 424 35.44 56.84% -0.439 -0.2367 -0.361
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 7 27.0 42.86% -0.319 0.1712 -0.296
Burn Brightest Before the End 10 29.5 50.0% -0.042 0.2937 -0.273
Disintegrating Ecosystem 351 30.95 52.99% 0.536 1.0928 -0.685
Downward Spiral 854 29.03 63.11% 0.005 0.3753 -0.195
Erosion of Will 375 32.57 54.13% -0.044 0.42 -0.6
Intensifying Exploitation 13 33.77 38.46% -0.411 0.0262 -0.001
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 94 39.36 82.98% 1.163 0.6754 0.452
Memory Fades to Dust 839 27.94 61.74% -0.039 0.4634 -0.447
Power Corrodes the Spirit 205 33.77 56.1% -0.553 -0.2388 -0.439
Promising Farmlands 411 30.34 54.5% -1.05 -0.4272 -0.981
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 40.7 60.0% 0.178 0.4294 -0.2
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 27.25 50.0% -0.086 0.4835 -0.005
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.328 -0.3685 0.776
The Border of Life and Death 5 22.2 60.0% 0.044 -0.0389 -0.373
Thriving Communities 238 34.34 60.08% 0.17 0.691 -0.209
Thriving Crops 6 27.5 66.67% 0.03 0.1956 -0.504
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.693
Unnatural Proliferation 236 38.5 61.86% -0.235 0.097 -0.078
Untended Land Crumbles 219 32.32 50.68% -0.58 -0.1909 -0.444

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4709 45.26% 32.71 74.92% -0.398 0.4551 -0.03
B 4481 44.78% 32.15 74.87% 0.007 0.7872 -0.239
C 4597 45.63% 33.61 75.57% -0.044 0.6159 -0.001
D 4841 46.6% 32.76 74.74% -0.105 0.7003 -0.162
E 1616 48.75% 36.8 74.26% -0.26 0.3743 0.161
F 1686 46.91% 35.15 78.47% 0.352 1.0781 0.227
G 1496 46.29% 34.67 77.27% 0.11 0.8693 0.009
H 1565 44.59% 35.08 77.19% 0.351 1.0191 0.045

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 501 0.0% 17.63 66.67% -0.505 0.4066
Not Using Events or Tokens 1992 41.4% 23.99 77.61% 0.145 0.4611 -0.23
Skip Initial Invader Actions 254 19.9% 37.0 87.4% -1.048 -1.5948 0.5
Start of Game Growth 368 20.98% 37.38 87.23% -0.16 -0.498 0.358
Unlimited Undo 1367 35.92% 35.6 83.17% -0.416 -0.4476 0.643
Using Tokens but Not Events 1093 35.23% 30.83 80.7% -0.207 -0.2725 0.078

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1489 21.15 18.33%
II 4443 31.04 69.44%
III 4482 34.73 89.13%
IV 2113 38.01 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 273
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3911
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2970
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2102
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 195
Lose: Invader deck ran out 122
Lose: Adversary condition 861
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1719
Lose: Spirit destroyed 109

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-27 04:08:23 (Pacific Time)