Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 20 30.0% 28.85 -1.21 85.0% -0.249 0.0345
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 26 50.0% 30.35 -0.503 80.77% -0.382 0.0128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 37 37.14% 38.81 3.695 78.38% -0.763 0.0982
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 49 53.06% 40.1 4.237 73.47% -0.905 0.3449
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 93.75% 31.81 0.525 34.38% -2.096 -0.5618
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 40 97.5% 35.1 2.636 35.0% -1.881 0.1869
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 60 85.0% 42.42 5.991 45.0% -1.79 0.2872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 225 29.15% 25.5 -2.391 93.78% 0.595 0.6374
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 211 36.02% 29.49 -0.29 85.31% -0.188 -0.2144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 243 37.19% 39.94 4.824 90.53% 0.365 0.3655
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 239 47.06% 44.15 6.79 83.68% -0.23 0.0634
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 164 45.4% 47.17 8.063 82.93% -0.429 -0.0588
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 69 58.82% 51.97 10.409 76.81% -0.656 0.1819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 210 78.16% 46.12 8.067 53.81% -1.515 -0.2662
The Kingdom of England 0 1 122 34.71% 24.42 -2.798 83.61% -0.41 -0.0797
The Kingdom of England 1 3 111 48.65% 30.4 0.422 74.77% -0.646 -0.1566
The Kingdom of England 2 4 137 61.31% 30.76 0.263 65.69% -1.102 -0.1375
The Kingdom of England 3 6 191 56.08% 35.79 2.823 55.5% -1.628 -0.0482
The Kingdom of England 4 7 157 60.13% 38.64 3.996 55.41% -1.729 -0.2149
The Kingdom of England 5 9 71 60.56% 46.37 7.759 53.52% -1.725 0.3455
The Kingdom of England 6 11 390 58.21% 48.7 8.91 52.56% -2.111 0.146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 75 33.33% 28.6 -1.183 85.33% -0.294 0.231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 61 73.77% 29.03 -0.147 75.41% -0.253 0.6353
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 120 49.17% 36.02 2.411 62.5% -1.535 0.5928
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 91 59.34% 38.47 4.025 50.55% -1.834 0.3499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 229 51.53% 48.63 8.723 66.81% -1.43 0.7206
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 35 51.43% 55.83 11.718 71.43% -1.036 0.79
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 318 52.2% 57.16 12.719 62.58% -1.646 0.4821
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 108 31.78% 23.01 -3.692 85.19% -0.31 -0.2218
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 90 37.78% 28.58 -0.523 82.22% -0.181 -0.1699
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 119 46.22% 32.7 1.073 84.87% -0.017 0.2023
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 122 57.38% 37.48 3.823 72.95% -0.67 -0.387
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 78 70.13% 38.08 4.498 71.79% -0.434 0.3364
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 36 63.89% 39.11 4.673 58.33% -1.097 0.0699
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 170 67.26% 44.55 7.208 64.71% -1.04 0.0913
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 18.18% 27.45 -2.33 90.91% -0.12 -0.2425
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 28.57% 39.0 3.519 100.0% 0.354 1.0694
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 21.43% 37.0 2.055 85.71% -0.484 -0.0464
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 60.61% 42.0 5.012 72.73% -0.8 0.4595
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 26 84.62% 38.04 3.477 53.85% -1.383 -0.2428
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 54.82 11.379 72.73% -0.587 1.4739
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 50 78.0% 54.84 11.284 54.0% -1.67 0.2661

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 47 48.94% 27.79 -2.487 70.21% -0.352 0.2249
Dahan Insurrection 4 95 34.74% 55.84 10.897 76.84% -0.06 0.3409
Despicable Theft 2 5 40.0% 36.8 2.42 100.0% 0.451 0.8795
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 35.75 0.522 100.0% 0.236 0.6168
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 181 16.57% 41.82 3.117 73.48% -0.625 -0.2591
Powers Long Forgotten 1 35 57.14% 31.46 -0.218 68.57% -0.402 0.0398
Rituals of Terror 3 30 30.0% 40.23 4.708 80.0% -0.111 0.5169
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 21 80.95% 38.05 3.015 66.67% 0.063 0.7127
Second Wave 0 393 45.13% 31.87 -0.117 78.88% -0.292 0.1242
Ward the Shores 2 67 55.38% 35.09 0.897 67.16% -0.804 0.2325

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 231 35.21 -0.804 57.58% -1.616 0.4546
Aid From Lesser Spirits 243 34.97 -0.619 60.49% -1.511 0.4076
All Things Weaken 70 30.07 -3.103 50.0% -1.998 0.1568
Back Against the Wall 224 33.2 -1.811 51.79% -1.896 0.1998
Disintegrating Ecosystem 204 29.31 -3.375 51.96% -1.97 0.2538
Downward Spiral 560 27.67 -2.741 62.5% -1.627 0.3897
Erosion of Will 229 31.62 -2.208 56.33% -1.802 0.4077
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 32 43.78 3.042 78.13% -0.304 0.4005
Memory Fades to Dust 542 27.22 -2.918 61.07% -1.774 0.4411
Power Corrodes the Spirit 75 34.91 -1.483 57.33% -1.67 0.3501
Promising Farmlands 268 29.93 -3.081 54.85% -1.862 0.3508
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 40.07 2.26 100.0% 0.724 1.1594
Thriving Communities 93 35.55 -0.631 62.37% -1.481 0.6169
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.719 47.29% -2.145 0.0733
Unnatural Proliferation 107 39.43 0.878 66.36% -1.253 0.8246
Untended Land Crumbles 69 36.09 -0.636 59.42% -1.523 0.5755

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2849 43.73% 32.15 -0.4 75.71% -0.162 -1.2516
B 2644 44.86% 31.35 -0.755 75.3% -0.121 -1.3064
C 2802 45.54% 33.33 0.257 76.66% 0.071 -1.3442
D 3220 45.03% 33.02 -0.155 76.3% -0.079 -1.2559
E 561 50.9% 37.83 1.192 74.51% 0.094 -1.1825
F 825 46.07% 35.37 0.614 80.36% 0.171 -1.0715
G 688 43.33% 34.58 0.447 78.34% 0.071 -1.1591
H 835 43.35% 35.86 0.604 78.44% -0.029 -1.2687

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 337 0.0% 17.63 -5.693 66.17% -2.106 -0.0618
Not Using Events or Tokens 1335 42.96% 23.96 -3.457 77.6% -0.187 0.0317
Skip Initial Invader Actions 175 15.33% 36.24 1.849 90.86% 0.399 -0.3049
Start of Game Growth 254 17.21% 36.42 1.418 90.16% 0.307 -0.147
Unlimited Undo 801 33.24% 34.73 0.929 84.89% 0.438 0.0262
Using Tokens but Not Events 698 34.76% 30.74 -1.242 81.38% 0.026 -0.0215

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 808 22.34 24.38%
II 2615 30.75 69.48%
III 2563 34.26 88.84%
IV 1226 37.47 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 93
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1595
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1199
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 860
Lose: Invader deck ran out 72
Lose: Adversary condition 519
Win: Sacrifice victory 18
Lose: Scenario condition 46
Win: Scenario condition 118
Lose: Blight pool ran out 999
Lose: Spirit destroyed 62

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)