Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 45 40.0% 30.67 2.155 91.11% 0.761 1.3119
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 42 42.86% 32.14 1.133 83.33% 0.181 1.0584
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 72 41.43% 40.78 -5.557 80.56% -0.542 0.5769
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 84 54.76% 38.51 6.453 69.05% 0.424 1.9545
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 66 87.88% 38.73 -1.506 53.03% -0.639 0.9484
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 56 94.64% 36.34 37.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 127 88.19% 40.49 4.551 40.94% -0.679 1.582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 304 32.12% 25.59 -2.65 92.76% -0.105 0.1388
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 308 37.25% 29.42 -1.48 85.71% 0.31 0.1834
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 395 38.42% 39.93 3.451 90.38% 0.763 0.8789
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 365 49.45% 44.58 9.192 84.93% 0.867 1.2413
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 314 42.31% 48.19 6.213 85.35% 0.065 0.531
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 115 59.65% 51.51 8.011 75.65% -0.346 0.639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 318 79.94% 47.08 9.897 55.03% -0.676 0.8996
The Kingdom of England 0 1 185 32.24% 25.21 -4.952 84.32% -0.254 0.2618
The Kingdom of England 1 3 165 43.9% 31.52 2.757 77.58% 0.51 1.1192
The Kingdom of England 2 4 215 58.14% 32.07 0.659 68.84% -0.401 0.7263
The Kingdom of England 3 6 281 58.78% 37.51 1.81 61.21% -0.869 0.874
The Kingdom of England 4 7 240 59.75% 39.85 -1.369 58.33% -1.452 0.1269
The Kingdom of England 5 9 87 59.77% 45.62 6.271 51.72% -0.456 1.2811
The Kingdom of England 6 11 572 59.09% 49.29 4.381 52.45% -1.775 0.5238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 95 32.61% 29.51 2.046 86.32% -0.413 0.4895
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 81 70.37% 29.3 1.882 76.54% 0.366 1.2561
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 173 53.18% 36.08 6.079 61.85% 0.131 2.5331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 137 64.71% 39.12 -2.802 52.55% -1.894 0.4902
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 263 52.09% 47.19 0.632 62.74% -1.846 0.6292
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 59 54.24% 53.49 9.718 64.41% -0.278 1.7999
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 492 57.32% 54.86 9.728 56.71% -1.052 1.3156
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 0.0% 26.33 -3.976 100.0% 0.297 0.1729
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 66.67% 13.0 -7.76 0.0% -1.14 -0.2951
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 10 30.0% 38.2 2.005 90.0% 0.194 1.0221
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 44.44% 41.11 3.986 77.78% -0.323 0.547
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 11 72.73% 48.64 7.435 72.73% -0.057 1.1786
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 51.71 8.979 85.71% 0.093 1.5245
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 44 61.36% 56.98 12.241 61.36% -0.574 1.1251
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 141 33.57% 23.23 -4.346 85.11% -0.243 -0.0758
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 123 40.16% 28.85 0.595 82.93% 0.416 0.1923
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 181 46.41% 33.52 6.389 88.4% 0.239 0.6924
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 189 57.67% 38.44 6.257 75.13% 0.414 0.7237
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 113 73.21% 38.62 3.998 71.68% -0.393 0.5587
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 52 61.54% 40.6 16.494 61.54% 0.093 1.0736
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 286 70.77% 44.83 5.608 65.38% -0.634 0.5583
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 29 17.24% 28.48 0.446 93.1% 0.23 0.1735
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 28 57.14% 34.36 -2.785 85.71% 0.268 1.042
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 35 40.0% 38.77 2.712 85.71% 0.058 0.7686
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 53 60.38% 43.43 75.47%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 53 60.38% 47.23 5.1 73.58% -0.505 0.88
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 25 72.0% 48.44 1.97 56.0% -1.164 0.7736
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 117 76.92% 51.26 7.316 42.74% -1.459 0.5601

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 16.67% 25.17 100.0% 0.52 0.318
Blitz 0 50 40.0% 29.26 76.0% 0.243 0.5002 -1.092
Dahan Insurrection 4 95 33.68% 58.58 80.0% 0.938 1.3509 0.882
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 41.42 91.67% 0.189 0.6347 -0.089
Elemental Invocation 1 19 47.37% 31.0 89.47% 0.082 0.5676 -0.397
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 188 11.73% 43.1 75.0% 0.301 0.6066 0.047
Powers Long Forgotten 1 35 51.43% 30.89 68.57% -0.579 -0.3976 -0.183
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.146 0.2669 0.239
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% 0.182 0.5971 -0.254
Second Wave 0 407 41.69% 30.89 81.08% -0.057 0.5089 0.02
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.35 0.876 0.194
Ward the Shores 2 52 52.0% 35.98 69.23% -0.375 0.7867 0.13

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 342 35.31 59.36% -0.845 1.0578 -0.57
Aid From Lesser Spirits 364 35.8 60.99% -0.963 0.7664 -0.52
All Things Weaken 161 32.54 52.8% -0.768 1.2172 -0.652
Back Against the Wall 376 34.91 55.85% -1.388 0.4284 -0.639
Disintegrating Ecosystem 299 30.25 53.18% -1.924 0.1265 -0.891
Downward Spiral 782 28.64 63.3% -1.012 0.9808 -0.455
Erosion of Will 334 32.21 54.79% -1.123 0.9602 -0.717
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 40.78 82.28% 0.092 0.5329 0.203
Memory Fades to Dust 761 28.04 62.02% -0.793 1.2907 -0.462
Power Corrodes the Spirit 161 33.71 57.76% -0.988 0.9501 -0.71
Promising Farmlands 370 30.58 55.68% -0.758 1.2876 -0.946
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 41 42.93 95.12% 0.118 0.5425 0.726
Thriving Communities 197 34.26 59.9% -1.578 0.4061 -0.411
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.735
Unnatural Proliferation 196 38.67 62.76% -1.223 0.741 -0.304
Untended Land Crumbles 172 32.51 51.74% -1.551 0.4423 -0.613

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4117 45.24% 32.81 76.0% 0.166 0.9632 -0.145
B 3885 45.65% 32.32 75.73% -0.094 0.6493 -0.291
C 4020 46.12% 33.85 76.84% 0.109 0.6769 -0.0
D 4373 46.6% 33.04 75.83% -0.058 0.7381 -0.259
E 1239 48.36% 37.8 76.35% 0.195 0.8424 0.26
F 1434 46.79% 35.3 79.57% 0.034 0.7586 0.278
G 1224 45.57% 35.08 79.33% -0.216 0.5153 0.138
H 1331 43.93% 35.59 78.51% -0.121 0.5914 0.029

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 457 0.0% 17.93 67.61% -1.105 1.0243
Not Using Events or Tokens 1817 42.49% 24.18 78.21% -0.099 0.0755 -0.156
Skip Initial Invader Actions 224 15.38% 36.37 90.18% 0.45 0.3081 -0.202
Start of Game Growth 330 17.78% 37.08 89.39% 0.651 -0.1099 -0.024
Unlimited Undo 1189 35.15% 36.39 85.53% 0.785 0.1807 0.862
Using Tokens but Not Events 991 34.3% 31.46 82.34% 0.583 0.4266 0.349

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1172 22.56 22.1%
II 3886 30.98 69.79%
III 3908 34.53 88.95%
IV 1865 37.77 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 259
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3404
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2606
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1854
Lose: Invader deck ran out 104
Lose: Adversary condition 756
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 57
Win: Scenario condition 156
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1511
Lose: Spirit destroyed 95

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)