Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 6 16.67% 23.83 -1.215 83.33% 0.164 0.1561
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 7 28.57% 37.0 -1.049 85.71% -0.406 -0.7841
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 40.0% 35.2 5.282 80.0% 0.22 0.2009
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 13 38.46% 34.54 4.286 69.23% 0.231 0.1209
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 12 41.67% 43.5 8.155 75.0% -0.124 0.3306
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 4 100.0% 33.0 4.635 25.0% -0.893 -0.0622
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 24 70.83% 33.17 2.326 33.33% -1.859 -0.1593
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 86 41.86% 27.83 2.482 80.23% 0.039 0.4504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 68 41.18% 26.75 -5.198 67.65% -1.203 -0.8413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 118 45.69% 36.93 11.432 72.88% 0.709 1.196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 153 51.63% 37.59 8.37 65.36% 0.017 1.0131
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 122 92.62% 35.46 -2.025 44.26% -0.428 1.1241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 88.16% 36.39 40.79%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 229 74.24% 37.93 11.874 39.74% -0.119 1.818
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 451 32.14% 23.24 -2.244 83.59% 0.128 0.317
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 512 34.39% 27.55 1.108 79.3% 0.041 0.0505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 646 38.88% 37.96 6.452 84.83% 0.902 0.9605
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 593 45.35% 39.75 6.398 75.04% 0.038 0.3111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 509 42.41% 45.11 2.653 79.17% -0.572 -0.2429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 195 61.86% 47.83 1.619 68.72% -0.422 -0.0159
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 582 74.7% 41.41 5.982 48.63% -0.776 0.5287
The Kingdom of England 0 1 293 29.27% 23.93 2.921 79.18% 1.217 1.5181
The Kingdom of England 1 3 250 43.78% 29.42 1.234 71.6% -0.415 -0.0882
The Kingdom of England 2 4 335 56.12% 29.67 0.763 63.28% -0.596 -0.018
The Kingdom of England 3 6 465 57.58% 33.41 -1.057 53.76% -1.483 -0.3859
The Kingdom of England 4 7 403 58.4% 37.37 3.937 54.59% -0.697 0.3429
The Kingdom of England 5 9 164 51.83% 33.21 -3.771 34.76% -1.861 -0.0674
The Kingdom of England 6 11 910 55.78% 42.22 -1.163 44.73% -1.972 -0.0737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 136 35.34% 27.87 81.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 130 62.31% 28.88 -6.412 72.31% -1.528 -0.7489
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 244 54.92% 35.09 12.934 58.61% 0.817 2.0546
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 232 59.31% 37.25 1.947 50.0% -1.157 0.1567
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 321 53.89% 44.48 3.012 57.01% -0.918 0.3749
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 91 58.24% 49.07 -9.133 57.14% -1.183 -0.1625
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 743 58.82% 50.64 3.125 51.55% -1.561 -0.1253
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 59 25.42% 18.83 3.862 59.32% 0.484 0.7477
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 49 44.9% 25.94 -4.652 55.1% -0.235 0.1099
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 94 48.94% 31.96 3.824 73.4% 0.383 0.6738
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 154 47.4% 41.82 10.505 79.22% 1.017 1.1327
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 179 35.2% 33.78 5.574 58.1% -0.491 0.1667
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 162 46.3% 48.23 9.533 75.93% -0.074 0.5467
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 400 62.0% 40.72 6.001 47.25% -1.185 -0.1386
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 211 34.29% 21.52 -2.02 78.67% -0.107 0.1644
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 186 41.76% 27.63 1.577 78.49% 0.602 0.7353
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 282 44.64% 31.41 2.572 79.43% 0.062 0.3272
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 303 58.09% 35.78 1.545 70.63% -0.275 0.0516
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 175 71.26% 36.1 2.796 67.43% -0.14 0.6249
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 91 61.54% 35.52 5.726 49.45% -0.134 1.0283
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 516 65.3% 40.98 5.455 58.72% -0.397 0.6555
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 59 28.81% 25.56 -11.022 79.66% -0.937 -0.7258
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 53.13% 33.45 5.283 85.94% 0.666 1.3825
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 68 35.29% 38.03 11.249 82.35% 0.424 0.6562
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 98 59.18% 41.89 3.756 71.43% -0.567 0.342
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 130 42.31% 44.82 9.923 72.31% 0.335 1.5463
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 99 43.43% 29.15 -13.471 34.34% -0.628 0.9885
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 288 62.5% 32.84 5.505 26.74% -0.784 0.8233

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 22.0% 24.62 82.0% 0.246 0.29 -0.237
Blitz 0 114 41.07% 32.83 71.05% 0.674 0.8879 -0.469
Dahan Insurrection 4 159 31.41% 51.58 69.18% -0.143 -0.4308 0.304
Despicable Theft 2 25 52.0% 28.72 60.0% -0.832 -0.1212 0.128
Elemental Invocation 1 41 48.78% 26.46 63.41% -0.741 -0.0401 -0.336
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 269 12.31% 40.39 73.98% 0.089 -0.5113 0.599
Powers Long Forgotten 1 62 51.61% 29.6 66.13% -0.379
Rituals of Terror 3 45 26.67% 39.24 75.56% 0.342 0.4026 0.406
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 22 68.18% 32.36 77.27% -0.271
Second Wave 0 671 41.05% 30.63 77.35% 0.795 1.0452 0.63
Varied Terrains 2 36 55.56% 35.67 69.44% 0.505 1.3339 -0.633
Ward the Shores 2 82 48.1% 30.4 60.98% -0.335

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 514 35.13 59.14% 0.173 0.2454 0.03
Aid From Lesser Spirits 542 35.75 60.15% -0.721 -0.7924 0.345
All Things Weaken 306 32.66 57.19% -0.181 0.0783 0.11
Attenuated Essence 84 36.52 55.95% -0.009 -0.0447 -0.4
Back Against the Wall 537 34.68 56.8% -0.045 0.0087 -0.023
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 86 29.91 50.0% -0.701 -0.5552 -0.176
Burn Brightest Before the End 78 30.88 53.85% 0.319 0.3351 -0.08
Disintegrating Ecosystem 465 30.28 52.26% -0.18 0.0077 -0.443
Downward Spiral 1144 27.4 59.79% 0.406 0.4798 0.228
Erosion of Will 489 32.1 53.78% 0.356 0.5107 -0.298
Intensifying Exploitation 102 30.4 48.04% 0.173 0.3087 -0.167
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 150 35.6 80.67% 0.126 -0.4879 0.668
Memory Fades to Dust 1119 27.06 58.45% 0.323 0.5258 0.272
Power Corrodes the Spirit 314 32.91 54.78% -0.538 -0.3636 -0.074
Promising Farmlands 527 29.86 54.27% -0.734 -0.536 -0.4
Shattered Fragments of Power 97 36.02 58.76% 0.863 0.8656 0.198
Slow Dissolution of Will 73 31.52 43.84% -1.079 -0.7802 -0.013
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 41.94 89.86% 0.57 -0.1264 1.019
The Border of Life and Death 23 26.96 65.22% 0.124 -0.3739 -0.18
Thriving Communities 361 31.35 53.46% -0.172 -0.0157 -0.244
Thriving Crops 53 33.47 66.04% 0.049 -0.2633 0.482
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.215
Unnatural Proliferation 363 36.98 62.26% 0.521 0.6299 0.275
Untended Land Crumbles 362 31.7 51.93% -0.256 -0.0742 0.016

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6905 43.64% 29.72 68.36% -0.164 0.8117 -0.014
B 6681 43.45% 29.44 67.74% -0.224 0.6654 -0.128
C 6761 43.8% 30.9 69.34% 0.244 0.9365 0.109
D 6860 45.3% 29.67 68.15% -0.327 0.5681 -0.176
E 2793 47.95% 33.62 68.24% 0.442 1.1713 0.135
F 2699 44.63% 32.31 71.88% 0.108 0.9396 -0.008
G 2267 45.24% 32.58 72.47% 0.247 1.026 0.08
H 2422 44.02% 32.35 70.64% -0.31 0.4725 -0.003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 760 0.0% 14.96 57.24% -0.291 0.3771 -0.148
Not Using Events or Tokens 3047 38.29% 20.62 66.46% -0.37 0.0504 -0.801
Skip Initial Invader Actions 386 23.26% 38.6 81.09% -0.76 -1.5293 0.901
Start of Game Growth 540 23.87% 36.54 81.3% 1.296 0.8584 0.606
Unlimited Undo 2007 36.82% 33.18 76.53% 0.251 0.1858 0.839
Using Tokens but Not Events 1637 34.58% 27.06 71.72% 0.018 -0.0246 -0.221

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3378 13.76 9.74%
II 6187 30.19 66.79%
III 6281 34.82 89.22%
IV 2897 38.63 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 329
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5508
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3995
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2875
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1878
Lose: Invader deck ran out 166
Lose: Adversary condition 1157
Win: Sacrifice victory 44
Lose: Scenario condition 69
Win: Scenario condition 204
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2373
Lose: Spirit destroyed 145

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)