Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 16.67% 30.0 100.0% 0.803 0.6146
Blitz 0 69 42.65% 33.94 76.81% -0.104 0.0803 -0.588
Dahan Insurrection 4 107 33.02% 58.55 81.31% 0.494 0.1798 0.938
Despicable Theft 2 15 46.67% 37.13 80.0% 0.444 1.1892 -0.017
Elemental Invocation 1 24 50.0% 32.83 83.33% -0.351 0.4207 -0.265
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 204 12.31% 42.78 75.0% -0.037 -0.6584 0.093
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 53.49% 29.58 67.44% -0.606 -0.0632 -0.159
Rituals of Terror 3 28 28.57% 44.39 85.71% 0.517 0.6235 0.51
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.267
Second Wave 0 490 40.95% 31.13 80.41% 0.358 0.4264 0.33
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 46.8 90.0% 0.654 1.2275 -0.236
Ward the Shores 2 61 49.15% 35.39 68.85% -0.315 0.8181 0.09

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 408 35.75 60.05% -0.163 0.036 -0.39
Aid From Lesser Spirits 422 36.37 61.37% -0.161 -0.2276 -0.128
All Things Weaken 206 32.92 55.34% -0.11 0.2578 -0.516
Attenuated Essence 11 27.45 36.36% -0.522 -0.4512 -0.892
Back Against the Wall 429 35.33 56.88% -0.221 -0.1521 -0.356
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 37.0 60.0% 0.024 0.2806 0.223
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 30.93 42.86% -0.3 -0.1252 -0.931
Disintegrating Ecosystem 355 30.96 52.68% 0.011 0.4497 -0.703
Downward Spiral 867 29.09 62.98% 0.054 0.2996 -0.214
Erosion of Will 378 32.7 54.23% -0.209 0.1091 -0.594
Intensifying Exploitation 23 26.04 39.13% -0.457 -0.1872 -0.607
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 96 39.74 83.33% 1.359 0.8492 0.529
Memory Fades to Dust 849 27.88 61.48% -0.215 0.1486 -0.43
Power Corrodes the Spirit 213 33.77 56.34% 0.178 0.4143 -0.425
Promising Farmlands 414 30.46 54.59% -0.72 -0.2593 -0.936
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 38.92 61.54% 0.135 0.1901 0.029
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 27.25 50.0% -0.162 0.2455 0.023
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.408 -0.2345 0.806
The Border of Life and Death 7 19.86 71.43% 0.14 -0.247 -0.377
Thriving Communities 248 34.08 60.08% 0.284 0.641 -0.317
Thriving Crops 7 33.71 71.43% 0.592 0.4766 -0.449
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.694
Unnatural Proliferation 239 38.38 61.51% -0.397 -0.2239 -0.066
Untended Land Crumbles 226 32.13 50.88% -0.532 -0.2836 -0.474

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4786 45.36% 32.67 74.7% -0.233 0.5998 -0.008
B 4565 44.72% 32.04 74.5% -0.09 0.7094 -0.225
C 4681 45.63% 33.46 75.18% -0.046 0.6105 -0.001
D 4890 46.66% 32.68 74.58% -0.092 0.7016 -0.157
E 1670 49.09% 36.65 74.07% -0.097 0.5308 0.194
F 1723 46.77% 34.88 77.83% 0.029 0.7423 0.185
G 1534 46.45% 34.59 76.66% 0.09 0.828 -0.001
H 1604 44.63% 34.98 76.68% 0.456 1.115 0.023

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 507 0.0% 17.54 66.47% -0.537 0.2762
Not Using Events or Tokens 2013 41.31% 23.92 77.35% 0.202 0.5381 -0.362
Skip Initial Invader Actions 258 20.5% 36.88 86.82% -0.926 -1.5597 0.523
Start of Game Growth 372 21.36% 37.29 86.83% -0.26 -0.5499 0.362
Unlimited Undo 1399 36.12% 35.45 82.49% -0.283 -0.2804 0.583
Using Tokens but Not Events 1109 35.37% 30.63 80.61% 0.017 -0.0574 0.104

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1545 20.63 17.8%
II 4524 31.02 69.12%
III 4546 34.75 89.16%
IV 2144 38.05 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 275
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3969
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3012
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2133
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 250
Lose: Invader deck ran out 127
Lose: Adversary condition 873
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1745
Lose: Spirit destroyed 110

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)