Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 46 23.91% 24.54 82.61% 0.447 -0.0975 -0.28
Blitz 0 110 40.74% 33.31 70.0% -0.627 -0.2186 -0.483
Dahan Insurrection 4 154 31.79% 51.58 70.13% 0.297 -0.1871 0.314
Despicable Theft 2 23 47.83% 29.83 65.22% 0.082
Elemental Invocation 1 39 51.28% 27.82 66.67% -1.104 -0.3694 -0.33
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 264 12.55% 40.3 74.24% 0.779 0.1203 0.593
Powers Long Forgotten 1 62 51.61% 29.6 66.13% -0.344
Rituals of Terror 3 43 25.58% 39.35 76.74% 0.285 0.1925 0.581
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 22 68.18% 32.36 77.27% -0.279
Second Wave 0 643 40.6% 30.51 77.29% 0.205 0.3018 0.581
Varied Terrains 2 34 58.82% 35.71 67.65% 0.503 1.3255 -0.655
Ward the Shores 2 81 48.1% 30.47 60.49% 0.405 1.2554 -0.359

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 506 35.23 58.89% 0.224 0.3048 -0.006
Aid From Lesser Spirits 525 35.97 60.95% -0.025 -0.1357 0.384
All Things Weaken 300 32.72 57.33% -0.213 -0.0289 0.111
Attenuated Essence 76 37.11 55.26% -0.122 -0.06 -0.448
Back Against the Wall 524 34.61 56.87% -0.27 -0.2927 -0.025
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 78 30.86 51.28% -0.676 -0.4977 0.002
Burn Brightest Before the End 66 29.58 50.0% 0.409 0.5012 -0.091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 451 30.31 51.88% -0.299 -0.0026 -0.482
Downward Spiral 1115 27.53 59.64% -0.024 0.0838 0.171
Erosion of Will 481 32.14 53.64% -0.339 -0.1756 -0.298
Intensifying Exploitation 92 30.22 45.65% -0.657 -0.4532 -0.187
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 137 36.88 82.48% -0.718 -1.165 0.739
Memory Fades to Dust 1090 27.25 58.44% -0.218 0.0211 0.184
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 33.45 56.29% -0.427 -0.314 -0.069
Promising Farmlands 512 29.93 53.91% -0.058 0.3179 -0.432
Shattered Fragments of Power 90 36.24 57.78% 1.693 1.7702 0.212
Slow Dissolution of Will 66 32.7 46.97% -0.436 0.0298 -0.06
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 42.03 89.39% 0.155 -0.4151 0.909
The Border of Life and Death 21 24.33 66.67% -0.076 -0.5381 -0.207
Thriving Communities 350 31.63 53.71% 0.107 0.3502 -0.236
Thriving Crops 44 36.16 65.91% 0.392 0.1738 0.584
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.236
Unnatural Proliferation 348 36.94 62.07% 0.1 0.2181 0.21
Untended Land Crumbles 340 32.07 52.35% 0.473 0.7226 0.076

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6657 43.77% 29.86 68.62% -0.24 0.6667 -0.049
B 6459 43.54% 29.68 68.03% -0.416 0.4119 -0.124
C 6514 44.0% 31.02 69.62% 0.128 0.8016 0.094
D 6616 45.26% 29.94 68.71% -0.142 0.691 -0.203
E 2671 48.22% 33.79 68.18% 0.267 0.9047 0.104
F 2552 45.11% 32.76 72.65% 0.164 0.9071 0.061
G 2178 45.4% 32.77 72.82% 0.621 1.3721 0.08
H 2309 44.33% 32.86 71.5% -0.368 0.3509 0.027

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 725 0.0% 15.16 57.52% -0.409 0.3063 -0.19
Not Using Events or Tokens 2936 38.22% 20.89 67.13% -0.231 0.2641 -0.774
Skip Initial Invader Actions 368 23.26% 39.34 82.34% 0.495 -0.204 0.912
Start of Game Growth 521 23.54% 36.74 81.38% 1.292 0.815 0.586
Unlimited Undo 1943 37.04% 33.5 76.89% 0.458 0.4261 0.847
Using Tokens but Not Events 1555 34.2% 27.53 72.6% -0.333 -0.4889 -0.092

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3188 14.26 10.19%
II 5967 30.3 67.0%
III 6051 34.84 89.09%
IV 2817 38.61 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 325
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5295
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3864
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2796
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1695
Lose: Invader deck ran out 160
Lose: Adversary condition 1122
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Scenario condition 68
Win: Scenario condition 201
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2309
Lose: Spirit destroyed 145

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-20 23:14:52 (Pacific Time)