Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 6 16.67% 23.83 4.843 83.33% 0.556 0.8877
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 8 37.5% 36.25 -0.385 87.5% -0.192 -0.2852
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 11 27.27% 32.91 2.526 72.73% -0.01 0.1342
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 18 44.44% 34.33 0.649 66.67% -0.582 -0.5232
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 14 42.86% 41.21 10.777 71.43% 0.555 0.8999
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 4 100.0% 33.0 -0.486 25.0% -0.607 0.2369
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 28 71.43% 31.96 1.213 32.14% -1.572 0.1011
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 88 43.18% 27.5 -0.054 79.55% -0.323 0.074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 69 40.58% 26.88 -3.535 68.12% -0.706 -0.3934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 120 44.92% 37.25 12.875 73.33% 0.812 1.3596
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 153 51.63% 37.59 13.803 65.36% 0.602 1.6002
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 123 92.68% 35.17 -6.236 43.9% -0.811 0.6193
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 88.16% 36.39 40.79%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 241 72.2% 36.93 1.016 39.0% -0.851 0.91
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 457 32.16% 23.14 -1.822 83.15% -0.301 -0.0958
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 522 34.88% 27.56 4.317 79.31% 0.797 0.8109
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 660 39.27% 37.93 7.695 84.85% 1.074 1.1001
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 601 45.24% 39.61 4.61 74.88% -0.325 -0.1059
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 522 42.88% 44.81 5.195 78.74% -0.181 0.106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 201 60.5% 46.68 -4.141 67.16% -1.441 -1.016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 600 73.95% 40.65 1.375 47.83% -1.247 0.0208
The Kingdom of England 0 1 300 28.91% 23.79 1.357 78.67% 0.4 0.7193
The Kingdom of England 1 3 252 43.43% 29.49 2.575 71.83% -0.22 0.0426
The Kingdom of England 2 4 345 56.81% 29.35 -0.086 62.61% -0.71 -0.1969
The Kingdom of England 3 6 472 57.36% 33.22 -1.547 53.39% -1.381 -0.3259
The Kingdom of England 4 7 411 58.23% 37.33 4.739 54.5% -0.92 0.0667
The Kingdom of England 5 9 167 52.1% 32.96 -7.43 34.73% -1.619 -0.0131
The Kingdom of England 6 11 939 55.65% 41.43 -1.169 43.88% -1.911 0.0029
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 136 35.34% 27.87 81.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 130 62.31% 28.88 -4.242 72.31% -0.835 -0.1054
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 247 54.66% 34.92 4.512 58.3% -0.168 0.9867
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 237 58.05% 37.14 2.253 49.79% -0.871 0.3839
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 321 53.89% 44.48 -1.094 57.01% -0.886 0.4299
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 98 57.14% 47.49 -0.569 54.08% -1.597 -0.3465
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 767 58.41% 50.02 3.886 50.85% -1.15 0.2224
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 61 24.59% 18.74 3.488 59.02% 0.319 0.5889
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 53 47.17% 26.62 1.892 58.49% 0.492 0.948
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 97 47.42% 32.12 5.678 73.2% 0.449 0.8421
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 157 47.13% 42.06 12.855 79.62% 1.225 1.2164
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 180 35.0% 33.91 2.886 58.33% -0.291 0.2495
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 163 46.01% 47.94 4.243 75.46% -0.562 -0.0817
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 423 61.94% 40.1 4.585 46.1% -1.326 -0.2839
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 214 35.21% 21.45 -1.259 78.04% 0.068 0.3644
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 191 41.71% 27.52 -0.064 78.53% 0.272 0.3137
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 286 44.72% 31.62 6.267 79.72% 0.882 1.0651
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 304 58.22% 35.66 -3.054 70.39% -0.602 -0.3323
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 176 71.43% 36.05 7.374 67.05% 0.193 0.9822
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 93 60.22% 34.75 0.405 48.39% -0.765 0.278
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 547 63.42% 39.97 2.188 57.22% -0.939 -0.0104
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 60 30.0% 25.82 -5.073 80.0% -0.587 -0.4034
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 64 53.13% 33.45 5.108 85.94% 0.523 1.3411
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 68 35.29% 38.03 10.199 82.35% 0.156 0.3785
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 102 58.82% 41.7 6.346 71.57% -0.081 0.9968
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 135 41.48% 44.43 5.708 71.85% -0.308 0.642
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 102 43.14% 28.29 -10.364 33.33% -1.088 0.4203
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 292 63.01% 33.21 11.155 27.4% -0.262 1.3284

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 22.0% 24.62 82.0% 0.228 0.3261 -0.201
Blitz 0 119 42.74% 32.18 71.43% 0.772 1.0175 -0.474
Dahan Insurrection 4 161 31.01% 50.94 68.32% -0.793 -1.0261 0.291
Despicable Theft 2 26 53.85% 28.04 57.69% -0.857 -0.2134 0.13
Elemental Invocation 1 42 47.62% 27.29 64.29% -0.444 0.2409 -0.322
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 277 12.31% 40.0 73.29% 0.024 -0.5613 0.59
Powers Long Forgotten 1 64 51.56% 28.81 64.06% -0.88 0.0165 -0.35
Rituals of Terror 3 46 28.26% 39.39 76.09% 0.375 0.4477 0.404
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 69.57% 32.74 78.26% 0.385 1.2567 -0.28
Second Wave 0 681 40.59% 30.55 77.39% 0.591 0.7518 0.65
Varied Terrains 2 37 54.05% 35.32 70.27% 0.828 1.5445 -0.644
Ward the Shores 2 82 48.1% 30.4 60.98% -0.353

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 519 35.05 59.15% 0.651 0.8586 0.055
Aid From Lesser Spirits 547 35.74 59.96% -0.453 -0.4868 0.38
All Things Weaken 310 32.71 57.42% 0.226 0.5102 0.187
Attenuated Essence 92 35.35 56.52% 0.018 0.034 -0.391
Back Against the Wall 546 34.71 56.96% 0.215 0.2655 0.035
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 90 30.98 51.11% 0.2 0.362 0.057
Burn Brightest Before the End 87 31.64 54.02% 0.034 0.0933 0.275
Disintegrating Ecosystem 473 30.19 52.01% 0.03 0.3037 -0.377
Downward Spiral 1165 27.3 59.66% 0.171 0.2761 0.275
Erosion of Will 500 31.96 53.6% 0.392 0.636 -0.299
Intensifying Exploitation 106 30.09 48.11% -0.012 0.22 -0.023
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 156 34.51 79.49% -0.278 -0.916 0.581
Memory Fades to Dust 1134 26.93 58.29% 0.573 0.817 0.277
Power Corrodes the Spirit 325 32.74 54.77% -0.382 -0.1841 0.018
Promising Farmlands 536 29.69 53.92% -0.007 0.2322 -0.377
Shattered Fragments of Power 103 35.16 58.25% -0.231 -0.1393 0.199
Slow Dissolution of Will 74 31.09 43.24% -0.754 -0.4002 -0.028
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 73 41.27 89.04% 0.547 -0.1483 1.071
The Border of Life and Death 23 26.96 65.22% -0.271 -0.8271 -0.156
Thriving Communities 373 31.22 53.62% -0.193 0.0371 -0.211
Thriving Crops 56 33.95 67.86% 0.535 0.2969 0.515
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.184
Unnatural Proliferation 373 36.61 61.39% 0.101 0.2953 0.263
Untended Land Crumbles 370 31.68 51.89% -0.49 -0.2544 0.067

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7068 43.49% 29.43 67.77% -0.219 0.7493 -0.045
B 6828 43.42% 29.23 67.16% -0.247 0.6356 -0.131
C 6898 43.62% 30.76 69.05% 0.229 0.934 0.116
D 7014 45.28% 29.42 67.72% -0.341 0.5804 -0.162
E 2872 47.89% 33.41 67.9% 0.371 1.1439 0.14
F 2785 44.72% 32.15 71.53% 0.325 1.1676 -0.008
G 2322 45.31% 32.29 71.96% 0.077 0.8996 0.062
H 2489 43.79% 32.11 70.15% -0.179 0.6367 0.022

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 778 0.0% 14.82 56.68% -0.437 0.281 -0.153
Not Using Events or Tokens 3105 38.37% 20.47 66.22% 0.147 0.5187 -0.792
Skip Initial Invader Actions 391 22.95% 38.47 80.82% -0.175 -0.8187 0.935
Start of Game Growth 546 23.61% 36.53 80.95% 1.18 0.6485 0.641
Unlimited Undo 2053 36.51% 33.0 76.28% 0.218 0.1316 0.853
Using Tokens but Not Events 1674 34.44% 26.89 71.62% 0.484 0.4717 -0.215

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3542 13.52 9.32%
II 6304 30.15 66.61%
III 6404 34.83 89.24%
IV 2937 38.66 99.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 330
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5619
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4062
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2914
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2043
Lose: Invader deck ran out 167
Lose: Adversary condition 1172
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Scenario condition 72
Win: Scenario condition 204
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2411
Lose: Spirit destroyed 148

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-27 03:24:57 (Pacific Time)