Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 7.14% 27.71 100.0% 0.219 0.1574
Blitz 0 68 43.28% 33.29 76.47% 0.311 0.4506 -0.609
Dahan Insurrection 4 107 33.02% 58.55 81.31% 0.592 0.4187 0.939
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% 0.012
Elemental Invocation 1 24 50.0% 32.83 83.33% -0.167 0.5635 -0.252
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 203 12.37% 42.67 74.88% -0.231 -0.8638 0.081
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 53.49% 29.58 67.44% -0.378 0.092 -0.147
Rituals of Terror 3 27 29.63% 42.44 85.19% 0.281 0.2931 0.264
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.268
Second Wave 0 477 40.59% 30.94 80.71% 0.065 0.1423 0.341
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 46.8 90.0% 0.034 0.6032 -0.249
Ward the Shores 2 61 49.15% 35.39 68.85% -0.302 0.9335 0.087

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 397 36.03 60.71% 0.27 0.5424 -0.359
Aid From Lesser Spirits 420 36.31 61.19% -1.013 -0.9493 -0.135
All Things Weaken 203 32.97 55.17% -0.541 -0.0722 -0.525
Attenuated Essence 8 26.63 25.0% -0.549 -0.29 -0.645
Back Against the Wall 425 35.36 56.71% -0.533 -0.3504 -0.349
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 35.89 55.56% 0.051 0.5152 0.257
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 28.92 41.67% -0.273 0.0505 -0.691
Disintegrating Ecosystem 351 30.95 52.99% 0.619 1.1631 -0.674
Downward Spiral 854 29.03 63.11% 0.042 0.3993 -0.181
Erosion of Will 375 32.57 54.13% 0.017 0.4712 -0.589
Intensifying Exploitation 13 33.77 38.46% -0.419 -0.0109 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 94 39.36 82.98% 1.107 0.5955 0.466
Memory Fades to Dust 840 27.9 61.67% -0.15 0.3498 -0.439
Power Corrodes the Spirit 206 33.95 56.31% -0.258 0.0523 -0.411
Promising Farmlands 411 30.34 54.5% -1.041 -0.4548 -0.966
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 40.7 60.0% 0.197 0.3996 -0.199
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 27.25 50.0% -0.12 0.4414 0.022
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.296 -0.426 0.781
The Border of Life and Death 5 22.2 60.0% 0.059 -0.0499 -0.369
Thriving Communities 238 34.34 60.08% 0.108 0.6153 -0.197
Thriving Crops 6 27.5 66.67% 0.098 0.2154 -0.453
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.689
Unnatural Proliferation 237 38.6 62.03% -0.211 0.1076 -0.068
Untended Land Crumbles 219 32.32 50.68% -0.629 -0.249 -0.436

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4718 45.24% 32.71 74.86% -0.43 0.4408 -0.028
B 4495 44.75% 32.15 74.84% 0.088 0.8912 -0.233
C 4609 45.55% 33.59 75.5% -0.049 0.631 -0.004
D 4845 46.63% 32.75 74.7% -0.084 0.7453 -0.167
E 1621 48.66% 36.8 74.28% -0.165 0.4907 0.168
F 1690 46.8% 35.11 78.46% 0.336 1.0804 0.232
G 1498 46.29% 34.65 77.24% 0.055 0.8348 0.003
H 1568 44.5% 35.07 77.1% 0.262 0.9489 0.038

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 501 0.0% 17.63 66.67% -0.477 0.4295
Not Using Events or Tokens 1994 41.41% 23.97 77.53% 0.029 0.345 -0.234
Skip Initial Invader Actions 255 20.3% 36.86 87.06% -0.922 -1.4836 0.5
Start of Game Growth 369 21.24% 37.28 86.99% -0.349 -0.6604 0.358
Unlimited Undo 1371 35.96% 35.59 83.08% -0.38 -0.4063 0.657
Using Tokens but Not Events 1095 35.16% 30.81 80.73% -0.096 -0.1613 0.09

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1497 21.09 18.24%
II 4453 31.04 69.44%
III 4491 34.73 89.13%
IV 2113 38.01 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 273
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3919
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2977
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2102
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 201
Lose: Invader deck ran out 123
Lose: Adversary condition 865
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1720
Lose: Spirit destroyed 109

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)