Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 49 38.78% 31.14 1.383 91.84% 0.34 0.8477
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 43 41.86% 32.28 2.167 83.72% 0.12 0.5241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 73 42.25% 40.4 -10.86 79.45% -0.627 0.5509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 91 54.95% 39.6 7.157 69.23% -0.283 1.1422
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 77 89.61% 36.91 -1.761 48.05% -1.094 0.4864
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 57 94.74% 36.98 11.041 38.6% 0.069 2.0051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 140 85.0% 41.94 9.867 43.57% -0.794 1.4774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 320 32.7% 25.44 -5.354 91.88% -0.363 -0.4105
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 327 36.62% 29.61 -1.875 86.24% 0.581 0.3481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 423 37.77% 40.21 4.372 90.07% 0.476 0.6657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 381 50.0% 44.25 2.514 83.73% -0.523 -0.1563
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 339 43.32% 48.35 8.276 85.25% 0.601 0.9599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 127 60.32% 50.84 4.217 74.02% -0.275 0.8912
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 351 79.54% 47.27 7.826 55.27% -0.758 0.6887
The Kingdom of England 0 1 196 31.96% 25.41 -1.279 85.2% 0.518 1.075
The Kingdom of England 1 3 176 44.0% 31.37 1.263 77.27% -0.039 0.6395
The Kingdom of England 2 4 230 59.57% 32.18 -0.782 69.57% 0.028 1.1814
The Kingdom of England 3 6 290 59.03% 37.31 -2.674 60.69% -1.173 0.5041
The Kingdom of England 4 7 253 59.44% 40.1 6.011 58.89% -0.117 1.3505
The Kingdom of England 5 9 89 59.55% 45.65 8.659 51.69% -0.493 1.5499
The Kingdom of England 6 11 593 59.19% 49.38 7.059 52.61% -1.297 1.2666
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 98 32.63% 29.55 0.414 86.73% 0.381 1.0544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 84 71.43% 29.21 -0.545 76.19% 0.077 1.1493
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 181 54.14% 35.87 -1.456 61.33% -0.761 1.354
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 144 65.73% 38.9 -3.259 52.08% -0.795 1.335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 271 52.4% 46.89 0.406 61.99% -1.368 0.977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 66 54.55% 53.41 10.817 63.64% -0.396 1.6689
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 519 58.19% 54.96 10.952 56.84% -0.768 1.4063
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 0.0% 32.43 -2.983 100.0% 0.215 0.122
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 50.0% 31.0 6.118 62.5% 0.476 1.3667
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 19 36.84% 35.05 0.628 78.95% -0.026 1.1765
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 28 46.43% 43.75 6.411 82.14% 0.768 1.6272
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 25 60.0% 48.44 6.97 80.0% 0.104 1.3213
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 28 50.0% 55.46 9.537 89.29% 0.39 1.6281
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 83 67.47% 56.64 9.356 66.27% -0.345 1.213
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 148 34.01% 23.18 -3.997 85.14% 0.041 0.2118
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 128 40.48% 29.07 0.257 82.81% 0.17 0.3896
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 192 46.88% 33.27 1.503 87.5% 0.35 0.6297
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 197 59.39% 38.28 -5.522 74.11% -1.065 -0.6139
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 120 73.95% 38.39 1.847 70.83% -0.495 0.5056
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 54 61.11% 40.57 3.817 61.11% -0.26 0.781
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 314 70.83% 45.36 8.055 66.24% 0.177 1.3359
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 33 18.18% 28.36 -1.779 93.94% 0.184 -0.2679
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 41 51.22% 35.29 2.542 90.24% 0.758 1.5606
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 41 39.02% 39.73 5.343 87.8% 0.472 0.909
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 57 59.65% 43.46 2.915 75.44% -0.348 0.8912
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 57 61.4% 46.54 11.202 71.93% 0.293 1.4355
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 29 72.41% 48.17 10.43 55.17% -0.008 2.1275
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 128 77.34% 51.17 10.537 42.97% -0.555 1.4161

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0% 0.429 0.9249
Blitz 0 57 38.6% 32.46 78.95% 0.387 0.8297 -0.852
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 33.0% 59.07 81.19% 0.137 0.2341 0.83
Despicable Theft 2 13 38.46% 39.69 84.62% -0.021
Elemental Invocation 1 20 50.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.168 0.7134 0.02
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 196 12.3% 42.88 75.0% 0.023 0.2545 -0.016
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 50.0% 30.1 70.0% 0.225 0.6325 -0.13
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.268
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.249
Second Wave 0 441 40.73% 31.03 81.18% 0.724 1.416 0.226
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.233
Ward the Shores 2 58 50.0% 35.33 68.97% -0.69 0.1904 0.102

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 378 35.83 60.32% -0.981 0.9899 -0.418
Aid From Lesser Spirits 395 36.62 62.28% 0.278 2.0562 -0.242
All Things Weaken 179 33.06 54.19% -0.637 1.4118 -0.66
Back Against the Wall 405 35.37 56.54% -1.118 0.8214 -0.524
Disintegrating Ecosystem 326 30.65 52.45% -0.919 1.2087 -0.817
Downward Spiral 817 28.93 63.28% -1.362 0.5991 -0.399
Erosion of Will 355 32.56 54.65% -0.691 1.3902 -0.742
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 88 39.5 82.95% 0.091 0.5931 0.264
Memory Fades to Dust 805 28.07 62.11% -0.734 1.4069 -0.594
Power Corrodes the Spirit 180 34.21 57.78% -1.0 0.9811 -0.667
Promising Farmlands 389 30.58 55.27% -0.764 1.2576 -1.025
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.7 95.65% 0.344 0.8407 0.629
Thriving Communities 217 34.36 59.45% -0.595 1.4645 -0.54
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.757
Unnatural Proliferation 221 38.46 61.99% -1.142 0.815 -0.259
Untended Land Crumbles 201 32.4 51.24% -1.241 0.7921 -0.585

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4379 45.4% 33.18 76.34% 0.304 1.0406 -0.044
B 4137 45.87% 32.41 75.85% -0.126 0.5713 -0.299
C 4284 46.29% 33.99 76.73% -0.424 0.046 -0.052
D 4579 46.84% 33.08 75.67% -0.226 0.4839 -0.249
E 1421 48.65% 37.89 76.5% 0.006 0.5504 0.242
F 1547 46.79% 35.58 79.64% 0.38 1.0417 0.291
G 1341 46.23% 34.87 78.75% 0.067 0.6979 0.073
H 1437 44.78% 35.64 78.22% 0.03 0.6946 0.049

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 477 0.0% 17.94 67.92% 0.02 2.2485
Not Using Events or Tokens 1893 42.33% 24.34 78.55% 0.811 1.0377 -0.148
Skip Initial Invader Actions 236 16.2% 37.77 90.68% 0.693 -0.2875 0.385
Start of Game Growth 346 18.31% 38.03 89.6% 0.19 -0.2665 0.293
Unlimited Undo 1266 35.63% 36.5 85.47% 0.992 0.4403 0.88
Using Tokens but Not Events 1037 34.9% 31.33 82.06% -0.171 -0.0162 0.19

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1243 22.65 21.32%
II 4162 31.08 69.94%
III 4192 34.66 88.93%
IV 1988 37.91 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 265
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3650
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2799
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1977
Lose: Invader deck ran out 113
Lose: Adversary condition 808
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 166
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1618
Lose: Spirit destroyed 100

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)