Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0% 0.429 0.9249
Blitz 0 57 38.6% 32.46 78.95% 0.387 0.8297 -0.852
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 33.0% 59.07 81.19% 0.137 0.2341 0.83
Despicable Theft 2 13 38.46% 39.69 84.62% -0.021
Elemental Invocation 1 20 50.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.168 0.7134 0.02
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 196 12.3% 42.88 75.0% 0.023 0.2545 -0.016
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 50.0% 30.1 70.0% 0.225 0.6325 -0.13
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.268
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.249
Second Wave 0 441 40.73% 31.03 81.18% 0.724 1.416 0.226
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.233
Ward the Shores 2 58 50.0% 35.33 68.97% -0.69 0.1904 0.102

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 378 35.83 60.32% -0.981 0.9899 -0.418
Aid From Lesser Spirits 395 36.62 62.28% 0.278 2.0562 -0.242
All Things Weaken 179 33.06 54.19% -0.637 1.4118 -0.66
Back Against the Wall 405 35.37 56.54% -1.118 0.8214 -0.524
Disintegrating Ecosystem 326 30.65 52.45% -0.919 1.2087 -0.817
Downward Spiral 817 28.93 63.28% -1.362 0.5991 -0.399
Erosion of Will 355 32.56 54.65% -0.691 1.3902 -0.742
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 88 39.5 82.95% 0.091 0.5931 0.264
Memory Fades to Dust 805 28.07 62.11% -0.734 1.4069 -0.594
Power Corrodes the Spirit 180 34.21 57.78% -1.0 0.9811 -0.667
Promising Farmlands 389 30.58 55.27% -0.764 1.2576 -1.025
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.7 95.65% 0.344 0.8407 0.629
Thriving Communities 217 34.36 59.45% -0.595 1.4645 -0.54
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.757
Unnatural Proliferation 221 38.46 61.99% -1.142 0.815 -0.259
Untended Land Crumbles 201 32.4 51.24% -1.241 0.7921 -0.585

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4379 45.4% 33.18 76.34% 0.304 1.0406 -0.044
B 4137 45.87% 32.41 75.85% -0.126 0.5713 -0.299
C 4284 46.29% 33.99 76.73% -0.424 0.046 -0.052
D 4579 46.84% 33.08 75.67% -0.226 0.4839 -0.249
E 1421 48.65% 37.89 76.5% 0.006 0.5504 0.242
F 1547 46.79% 35.58 79.64% 0.38 1.0417 0.291
G 1341 46.23% 34.87 78.75% 0.067 0.6979 0.073
H 1437 44.78% 35.64 78.22% 0.03 0.6946 0.049

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 477 0.0% 17.94 67.92% 0.02 2.2485
Not Using Events or Tokens 1893 42.33% 24.34 78.55% 0.811 1.0377 -0.148
Skip Initial Invader Actions 236 16.2% 37.77 90.68% 0.693 -0.2875 0.385
Start of Game Growth 346 18.31% 38.03 89.6% 0.19 -0.2665 0.293
Unlimited Undo 1266 35.63% 36.5 85.47% 0.992 0.4403 0.88
Using Tokens but Not Events 1037 34.9% 31.33 82.06% -0.171 -0.0162 0.19

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1243 22.65 21.32%
II 4162 31.08 69.94%
III 4192 34.66 88.93%
IV 1988 37.91 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 265
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3650
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2799
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1977
Lose: Invader deck ran out 113
Lose: Adversary condition 808
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 166
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1618
Lose: Spirit destroyed 100

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)