Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 30 36.67% 28.27 -1.478 86.67% -0.109 0.1743
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 31 51.61% 30.45 -0.463 80.65% -0.429 -0.0183
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 46 40.91% 38.98 3.7 78.26% -0.797 0.0791
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 65 55.38% 39.4 3.994 72.31% -1.009 0.2369
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 45 84.44% 37.4 3.21 51.11% -1.689 -0.1872
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 49 97.96% 35.86 3.058 36.73% -1.813 0.14
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 85 88.24% 41.44 5.519 42.35% -1.975 0.0677
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 254 29.76% 25.43 -2.492 93.7% 0.553 0.5951
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 240 36.4% 29.11 -0.42 84.17% -0.301 -0.3196
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 297 39.19% 39.33 4.371 88.89% 0.092 0.1053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 280 48.39% 43.92 6.601 83.57% -0.279 0.0086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 191 44.74% 47.01 7.963 82.72% -0.508 -0.1409
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 81 56.25% 51.59 10.267 76.54% -0.745 0.0815
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 241 78.9% 46.71 8.313 55.6% -1.478 -0.2401
The Kingdom of England 0 1 153 33.55% 24.59 -2.84 84.97% -0.392 -0.0603
The Kingdom of England 1 3 132 44.7% 31.26 0.745 77.27% -0.612 -0.0978
The Kingdom of England 2 4 171 60.23% 31.35 0.484 67.84% -1.128 -0.1602
The Kingdom of England 3 6 227 56.89% 37.51 3.574 60.79% -1.462 0.1169
The Kingdom of England 4 7 198 58.25% 39.71 4.511 58.08% -1.693 -0.1945
The Kingdom of England 5 9 78 60.26% 45.45 7.175 51.28% -1.912 0.1617
The Kingdom of England 6 11 458 57.42% 48.69 8.915 52.4% -2.157 0.0911
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 84 34.57% 28.77 -1.209 86.9% -0.257 0.2564
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 71 71.83% 29.11 -0.288 76.06% -0.351 0.5484
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 145 50.34% 36.16 2.355 62.76% -1.618 0.5246
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 108 61.68% 38.9 4.128 51.85% -1.832 0.3646
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 240 51.67% 48.23 8.498 65.83% -1.525 0.6338
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 45 55.56% 55.38 11.523 71.11% -1.093 0.7244
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 367 53.41% 55.86 12.147 60.22% -1.774 0.3226
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 119 29.66% 23.11 -3.655 85.71% -0.31 -0.2245
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 101 40.0% 28.14 -0.785 81.19% -0.301 -0.2675
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 148 47.97% 32.46 0.904 86.49% 0.059 0.2942
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 140 56.43% 38.25 4.018 75.0% -0.67 -0.3831
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 71.43% 37.53 4.078 69.57% -0.601 0.1822
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 42 59.52% 40.36 5.231 61.9% -1.129 0.0376
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 209 68.6% 44.17 7.029 64.11% -1.081 0.0433
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 17 23.53% 28.88 -2.219 94.12% -0.001 -0.1023
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 57.14% 36.07 2.217 92.86% 0.472 1.2505
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 18 27.78% 37.89 2.306 83.33% -0.613 -0.1933
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 43 65.12% 40.4 4.405 69.77% -0.916 0.3378
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 44 63.64% 46.32 7.189 72.73% -0.902 0.2144
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 75.0% 55.75 12.019 75.0% -0.474 1.5249
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 64 73.44% 54.88 11.208 53.13% -1.896 -0.018

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 55 47.27% 26.69 -2.717 72.73% -0.319 0.2499
Dahan Insurrection 4 111 32.43% 55.47 10.853 78.38% -0.064 0.3338
Despicable Theft 2 10 40.0% 38.7 2.321 90.0% 0.051 0.3206
Elemental Invocation 1 9 44.44% 35.67 1.141 100.0% 0.707 1.1716
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 212 16.1% 41.49 2.993 73.58% -0.646 -0.2794
Powers Long Forgotten 1 38 57.89% 31.13 -0.625 65.79% -0.606 -0.1616
Rituals of Terror 3 34 35.29% 41.41 5.338 79.41% 0.104 0.7492
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 82.61% 37.78 2.871 69.57% 0.084 0.7292
Second Wave 0 438 46.06% 31.79 -0.193 78.08% -0.354 0.0748
Ward the Shores 2 70 55.88% 34.94 0.923 68.57% -0.753 0.281

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 277 34.56 -1.19 57.4% -1.676 0.3976
Aid From Lesser Spirits 289 35.53 -0.386 62.28% -1.475 0.443
All Things Weaken 100 30.52 -2.97 49.0% -2.107 0.0635
Back Against the Wall 277 33.85 -1.431 54.51% -1.824 0.2672
Disintegrating Ecosystem 239 29.85 -3.134 53.56% -1.914 0.3106
Downward Spiral 629 27.98 -2.628 63.59% -1.607 0.4164
Erosion of Will 265 32.29 -2.005 56.6% -1.795 0.4145
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 52 40.65 2.157 80.77% -0.376 0.3108
Memory Fades to Dust 628 27.36 -2.881 60.83% -1.801 0.4178
Power Corrodes the Spirit 97 32.67 -2.555 51.55% -1.985 0.039
Promising Farmlands 306 30.2 -2.959 55.88% -1.85 0.364
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 43.48 3.359 100.0% 0.949 1.3584
Thriving Communities 128 34.55 -1.147 63.28% -1.606 0.4892
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.682 47.29% -2.136 0.0902
Unnatural Proliferation 136 39.32 0.98 65.44% -1.263 0.8232
Untended Land Crumbles 97 33.52 -1.801 55.67% -1.809 0.2964

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3270 44.12% 32.13 -0.461 75.84% -0.197 -0.9572
B 3066 45.39% 31.59 -0.684 75.31% -0.139 -0.9958
C 3245 45.19% 33.37 0.226 77.07% 0.054 -1.0349
D 3640 45.68% 32.83 -0.307 76.13% -0.125 -0.9747
E 800 48.29% 37.78 1.278 76.13% 0.141 -0.824
F 1064 45.61% 35.07 0.391 79.98% 0.092 -0.8223
G 904 45.68% 35.08 0.64 79.65% 0.216 -0.6896
H 1033 43.61% 36.15 0.715 79.09% -0.024 -0.9383

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 393 0.0% 17.75 -5.668 66.92% -2.112 -0.0561
Not Using Events or Tokens 1529 42.58% 23.9 -3.448 77.63% -0.205 0.0104
Skip Initial Invader Actions 197 15.23% 35.81 1.746 90.86% 0.462 -0.2247
Start of Game Growth 280 17.32% 36.21 1.408 89.64% 0.234 -0.2361
Unlimited Undo 959 35.32% 34.75 0.911 84.25% 0.408 -0.0121
Using Tokens but Not Events 811 33.65% 31.09 -1.143 82.12% 0.039 -0.0132

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 911 22.35 24.26%
II 3070 30.84 69.28%
III 3067 34.35 88.75%
IV 1463 37.52 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 117
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2032
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1497
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1095
Lose: Invader deck ran out 84
Lose: Adversary condition 593
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 51
Win: Scenario condition 135
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1179
Lose: Spirit destroyed 75

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)