Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0%
Blitz 0 66 42.42% 33.79 77.27% -0.1 0.1905 -0.651
Dahan Insurrection 4 105 33.65% 58.5 80.95% -0.171 -0.3493 0.906
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% -0.499 0.1563 0.014
Elemental Invocation 1 23 52.17% 34.26 86.96% 0.154 0.9804 -0.244
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 202 12.44% 42.62 74.75% -0.212 -0.7119 0.038
Powers Long Forgotten 1 41 51.22% 30.07 70.73% 0.357 0.7666 -0.146
Rituals of Terror 3 27 29.63% 42.44 85.19% 0.192 0.076 0.239
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.28
Second Wave 0 463 40.96% 30.85 80.78% -0.079 0.0371 0.315
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 36.8 80.0% -0.457 0.036 -0.299
Ward the Shores 2 60 50.0% 35.98 70.0% 0.509 1.4228 0.085

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 394 36.1 60.91% 0.207 0.8723 -0.398
Aid From Lesser Spirits 415 36.34 61.45% -0.291 0.1729 -0.182
All Things Weaken 193 33.54 55.44% 0.131 0.9436 -0.517
Attenuated Essence 4 24.25 25.0% -0.365 0.2802 -0.457
Back Against the Wall 419 35.32 56.56% -0.375 0.1723 -0.389
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 58.0 100.0% 0.563 1.4826 0.509
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 29.2 40.0% -0.338 0.4542 -0.311
Disintegrating Ecosystem 344 31.03 52.91% 0.384 1.2403 -0.735
Downward Spiral 845 29.13 63.2% 0.009 0.6874 -0.245
Erosion of Will 371 32.61 54.45% -0.372 0.435 -0.614
Intensifying Exploitation 5 35.0 40.0% -0.819 0.1248 0.322
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 92 39.01 82.61% 0.427 0.1733 0.343
Memory Fades to Dust 828 28.08 61.96% 0.029 0.8564 -0.512
Power Corrodes the Spirit 197 33.75 55.84% -0.647 -0.0081 -0.529
Promising Farmlands 402 30.5 54.73% -0.818 0.0774 -0.987
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 43.83 66.67% -0.094 0.5542 -0.158
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 32.0 50.0% -0.086 0.896 0.26
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.324 -0.1677 0.712
The Border of Life and Death 5 22.2 60.0% -0.072 0.134 -0.38
Thriving Communities 232 34.46 60.34% 0.234 1.1159 -0.251
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 50.0% -0.377 0.1754 -0.302
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.715
Unnatural Proliferation 228 38.29 61.84% -0.129 0.5378 -0.149
Untended Land Crumbles 213 32.5 51.17% -0.167 0.5652 -0.46

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4588 45.26% 32.92 75.59% -0.095 0.8093 -0.022
B 4362 45.25% 32.23 75.33% -0.004 0.7944 -0.215
C 4489 45.95% 33.8 76.16% 0.183 0.8324 -0.013
D 4748 46.65% 32.89 75.04% -0.162 0.6883 -0.189
E 1555 48.67% 37.07 74.79% -0.218 0.4789 0.171
F 1642 46.95% 35.25 78.68% 0.124 0.8943 0.226
G 1449 46.24% 34.71 77.78% 0.178 0.9506 0.025
H 1520 44.5% 35.2 77.24% 0.01 0.7305 0.028

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 493 0.0% 17.74 67.14% -0.604 0.5976
Not Using Events or Tokens 1958 41.7% 24.16 78.14% 0.474 0.7176 -0.215
Skip Initial Invader Actions 250 18.23% 37.56 88.8% -0.399 -0.9762 0.47
Start of Game Growth 363 19.67% 37.87 88.43% 0.099 -0.3597 0.329
Unlimited Undo 1327 35.92% 36.03 84.25% -0.171 -0.3491 0.785
Using Tokens but Not Events 1083 35.18% 30.94 80.98% -0.074 -0.1132 0.094

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1398 21.84 19.17%
II 4349 31.08 69.69%
III 4388 34.71 89.08%
IV 2070 37.98 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 268
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3825
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2918
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2059
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 120
Lose: Adversary condition 844
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 171
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1689
Lose: Spirit destroyed 108

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)