Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 3 33.33% 28.0 -0.937 100.0% 0.338 0.1687
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 5 0.0% 42.0 9.499 100.0% 0.753 0.1315
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 0.0% 45.67 11.81 100.0% 0.699 0.5869
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 6 66.67% 34.5 2.955 66.67% -0.166 -0.3576
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 4 0.0% 54.75 12.854 100.0% 0.525 0.9723
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.8 0.0% -0.732 0.2382
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 6 83.33% 30.0 1.993 33.33% -0.84 0.8715
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 78 43.59% 27.85 5.036 80.77% 0.164 0.4909
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 61 36.07% 27.98 -14.495 72.13% -0.87 -0.5385
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 114 47.32% 36.4 6.377 71.93% 0.45 1.074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 144 54.17% 37.13 7.16 65.28% 0.663 1.4325
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 121 92.56% 35.58 6.611 44.63% 0.105 1.6348
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 88.16% 36.39 8.996 40.79% -0.38 1.1131
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 226 74.78% 37.68 1.7 39.38% -0.944 1.0272
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 432 31.4% 23.53 -1.325 84.26% 0.184 0.36
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 496 35.51% 27.73 -1.68 79.64% -0.22 -0.1765
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 616 38.66% 38.11 5.712 84.9% 0.741 0.8701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 572 45.79% 40.01 4.594 75.7% -0.029 0.2505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 489 43.12% 45.79 7.279 80.37% 0.349 0.6234
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 191 61.58% 48.2 -0.284 69.11% -0.458 -0.1608
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 554 75.23% 41.53 5.487 48.38% -0.38 0.8635
The Kingdom of England 0 1 284 29.86% 23.82 2.432 78.87% 1.467 1.8409
The Kingdom of England 1 3 238 43.88% 29.6 9.428 72.27% 0.442 0.9932
The Kingdom of England 2 4 319 56.74% 29.94 0.871 63.95% 0.093 0.7054
The Kingdom of England 3 6 442 59.23% 34.13 1.698 54.98% -0.607 0.5308
The Kingdom of England 4 7 389 58.7% 37.56 2.599 54.76% -0.374 0.5612
The Kingdom of England 5 9 156 52.56% 34.24 0.698 35.9% -1.164 0.2403
The Kingdom of England 6 11 860 56.58% 43.51 3.102 46.05% -1.22 0.6514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 136 35.34% 27.87 81.62%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 124 61.29% 29.53 11.589 75.0% 0.412 1.1992
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 240 55.42% 34.85 -2.28 57.92% -0.656 0.4979
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 218 58.06% 38.02 -1.618 51.38% -1.473 -0.2472
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 314 53.18% 44.8 12.489 57.32% 0.428 1.7203
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 88 57.95% 50.36 -7.476 59.09% -1.101 0.0471
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 712 58.71% 51.3 6.833 52.39% -0.951 0.5401
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 52 26.92% 17.12 -10.706 55.77% -1.015 -0.6961
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 46 47.83% 26.87 2.599 56.52% 0.284 0.5452
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 78 47.44% 31.53 -2.543 71.79% -0.618 -0.3319
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 136 48.53% 41.59 3.453 78.68% 0.13 0.4026
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 173 35.84% 33.98 7.859 58.96% 0.57 1.4723
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 150 47.33% 48.14 7.731 75.33% 0.386 0.953
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 374 62.83% 41.01 7.483 47.59% -0.462 0.6899
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 205 34.31% 21.55 -4.012 78.54% 0.167 0.3899
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 179 41.14% 27.78 5.723 78.21% 0.458 0.6221
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 269 45.52% 31.6 -13.658 80.3% -0.377 -0.151
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 292 57.53% 36.15 7.026 71.23% 0.685 1.1583
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 168 71.26% 36.24 2.42 67.26% -0.101 0.6377
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 87 64.37% 35.41 -4.9 48.28% -0.51 0.4644
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 503 65.4% 41.03 1.016 58.85% -0.615 0.3945
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 57 29.82% 26.46 -3.865 82.46% 0.345 0.5548
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 60 53.33% 33.4 5.952 85.0% 0.197 0.8868
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 64 37.5% 36.97 -12.535 81.25% -0.801 -0.3135
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 93 58.06% 42.23 4.087 72.04% -0.219 0.6076
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 126 41.27% 44.9 5.605 72.22% -0.12 0.8202
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 98 42.86% 29.45 34.69%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 280 62.5% 32.73 -2.522 26.43% -1.257 0.5824

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 46 23.91% 24.54 82.61% 0.561 -0.1059 -0.272
Blitz 0 110 40.74% 33.31 70.0% -0.373 0.0597 -0.498
Dahan Insurrection 4 153 31.33% 51.55 69.93% 0.326
Despicable Theft 2 23 47.83% 29.83 65.22% -0.2 0.3279 0.068
Elemental Invocation 1 39 51.28% 27.82 66.67% -1.148 -0.3349 -0.336
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 264 12.55% 40.3 74.24% 0.981 0.3228 0.593
Powers Long Forgotten 1 62 51.61% 29.6 66.13% -0.328
Rituals of Terror 3 42 26.19% 39.45 76.19% -0.113 -0.2072 0.585
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 22 68.18% 32.36 77.27% -0.274
Second Wave 0 639 40.38% 30.58 77.46% 0.121 0.2387 0.581
Varied Terrains 2 34 58.82% 35.71 67.65% 0.442 1.1878 -0.645
Ward the Shores 2 81 48.1% 30.47 60.49% 0.424 1.2167 -0.355

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 502 35.27 58.96% 0.019 0.1443 0.009
Aid From Lesser Spirits 523 36.0 61.19% 0.464 0.3913 0.407
All Things Weaken 298 32.72 57.38% -0.318 -0.0938 0.08
Attenuated Essence 72 36.83 54.17% 0.163 0.2425 -0.44
Back Against the Wall 523 34.64 56.79% 0.079 0.0731 -0.025
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 75 30.99 52.0% -0.472 -0.2873 0.07
Burn Brightest Before the End 66 29.58 50.0% 0.334 0.4536 -0.083
Disintegrating Ecosystem 448 30.3 51.79% -0.42 -0.0934 -0.468
Downward Spiral 1106 27.57 59.67% -0.252 -0.1412 0.179
Erosion of Will 480 32.16 53.54% -0.22 -0.0132 -0.295
Intensifying Exploitation 90 30.53 46.67% -0.118 0.0995 -0.171
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 137 36.88 82.48% -0.61 -0.986 0.73
Memory Fades to Dust 1083 27.29 58.54% -0.54 -0.296 0.201
Power Corrodes the Spirit 297 33.59 56.57% -0.503 -0.3931 -0.045
Promising Farmlands 509 30.07 54.22% 0.198 0.5728 -0.421
Shattered Fragments of Power 86 36.08 55.81% 0.563 0.7007 0.142
Slow Dissolution of Will 66 32.7 46.97% -0.052 0.4944 -0.073
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 42.03 89.39% 0.182 -0.3949 0.916
The Border of Life and Death 21 24.33 66.67% -0.079 -0.5334 -0.221
Thriving Communities 344 31.48 53.49% 0.045 0.3312 -0.238
Thriving Crops 42 35.52 66.67% 0.431 0.2328 0.695
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.229
Unnatural Proliferation 346 36.89 61.85% 0.007 0.1713 0.208
Untended Land Crumbles 338 32.2 52.07% -0.091 0.1556 0.076

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6613 43.69% 29.94 68.79% -0.194 0.7477 -0.04
B 6410 43.57% 29.75 68.24% -0.259 0.5994 -0.12
C 6467 44.01% 31.07 69.72% 0.129 0.8458 0.079
D 6572 45.26% 30.0 68.9% 0.018 0.8893 -0.218
E 2642 48.18% 33.88 68.24% 0.255 0.9394 0.121
F 2526 44.89% 32.78 72.6% -0.312 0.4682 0.05
G 2166 45.42% 32.82 72.9% 0.559 1.3578 0.091
H 2295 44.3% 32.9 71.72% -0.185 0.5729 0.03

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 721 0.0% 15.23 57.84% -0.092 0.6093 -0.192
Not Using Events or Tokens 2914 38.3% 20.97 67.4% -0.226 0.2745 -0.741
Skip Initial Invader Actions 367 23.0% 39.28 82.29% 0.646 0.1116 0.906
Start of Game Growth 520 23.36% 36.69 81.35% 1.348 0.8119 0.594
Unlimited Undo 1935 37.04% 33.53 76.95% 0.334 0.2708 0.837
Using Tokens but Not Events 1548 34.08% 27.53 72.67% -0.479 -0.6253 -0.091

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3140 14.35 10.32%
II 5934 30.31 67.07%
III 6015 34.84 89.09%
IV 2801 38.6 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 324
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5263
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3846
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2781
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1651
Lose: Invader deck ran out 160
Lose: Adversary condition 1112
Win: Sacrifice victory 43
Lose: Scenario condition 68
Win: Scenario condition 200
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2299
Lose: Spirit destroyed 143

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-17 03:03:23 (Pacific Time)