Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0% 0.227 0.1878
Blitz 0 57 38.6% 32.46 78.95% 0.117 0.6761 -0.857
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 33.0% 59.07 81.19% 0.031 0.1146 0.834
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% -0.54 0.0276 -0.023
Elemental Invocation 1 20 50.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.014
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 198 12.7% 43.04 75.25% 0.435 0.6241 -0.016
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 50.0% 30.1 70.0% 0.246 0.7609 -0.137
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.256
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.252
Second Wave 0 444 40.45% 31.03 81.31% 0.51 1.0671 0.217
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.224
Ward the Shores 2 60 50.0% 35.98 70.0% -0.473 0.3328 0.148

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 384 35.94 60.42% -0.954 1.0209 -0.451
Aid From Lesser Spirits 403 36.64 62.28% 0.306 2.048 -0.276
All Things Weaken 184 33.53 55.43% -0.289 1.7794 -0.629
Back Against the Wall 410 35.49 57.07% -0.792 1.1252 -0.51
Disintegrating Ecosystem 330 30.63 52.12% -1.151 0.9309 -0.852
Downward Spiral 826 29.05 63.32% -1.196 0.684 -0.391
Erosion of Will 364 32.49 54.4% -1.189 0.8983 -0.762
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 90 39.52 82.22% -0.558 -0.0409 0.258
Memory Fades to Dust 810 28.15 62.22% -0.782 1.2957 -0.589
Power Corrodes the Spirit 184 33.97 57.07% -1.32 0.5799 -0.701
Promising Farmlands 392 30.63 55.36% -0.445 1.5886 -1.074
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.7 95.65% 0.049 0.5144 0.62
Thriving Communities 220 34.28 60.0% -0.058 1.9892 -0.54
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.761
Unnatural Proliferation 224 38.46 62.5% -0.567 1.3627 -0.228
Untended Land Crumbles 206 32.5 51.46% -1.208 0.7912 -0.556

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4428 45.48% 33.2 76.4% 0.272 1.0183 -0.046
B 4176 45.83% 32.44 75.93% -0.187 0.5088 -0.303
C 4331 46.34% 34.0 76.77% -0.314 0.1724 -0.042
D 4619 46.98% 33.09 75.6% -0.529 0.1835 -0.241
E 1451 48.88% 37.9 76.43% 0.261 0.8228 0.234
F 1562 46.86% 35.61 79.64% 0.499 1.169 0.267
G 1366 46.57% 34.92 78.77% 0.293 0.8946 0.089
H 1454 44.8% 35.6 78.27% -0.283 0.38 0.052

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 480 0.0% 17.96 67.92% -0.364 1.8112
Not Using Events or Tokens 1909 42.1% 24.34 78.68% 0.84 1.0751 -0.158
Skip Initial Invader Actions 240 16.48% 37.61 90.83% 0.64 -0.5438 0.387
Start of Game Growth 351 18.75% 37.99 89.74% 0.546 0.1142 0.298
Unlimited Undo 1279 35.78% 36.52 85.46% 0.734 0.2527 0.872
Using Tokens but Not Events 1047 35.28% 31.44 82.14% 0.482 0.6327 0.206

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1254 22.67 21.13%
II 4213 31.11 70.0%
III 4248 34.68 88.98%
IV 2004 37.94 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 265
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3700
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2836
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1993
Lose: Invader deck ran out 116
Lose: Adversary condition 812
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 168
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1635
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)