Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 27 29.63% 28.33 88.89% 0.084 -0.0558 -0.315
Blitz 0 82 41.98% 33.57 73.17% -0.701 -0.5904 -0.438
Dahan Insurrection 4 120 35.29% 57.36 77.5% 0.098 -0.1375 0.648
Despicable Theft 2 20 50.0% 32.0 70.0% 0.587 1.2303 -0.013
Elemental Invocation 1 32 53.13% 30.56 75.0% -0.864 -0.0619 -0.335
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 227 11.01% 41.83 75.33% 0.379 -0.3946 0.312
Powers Long Forgotten 1 50 52.0% 30.14 66.0% -0.034 0.7391 -0.145
Rituals of Terror 3 32 25.0% 43.09 84.38% 0.662 0.6779 0.233
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 18 77.78% 35.28 83.33% 0.099 1.156 -0.267
Second Wave 0 517 41.13% 30.54 78.34% -1.006 -0.9252 0.14
Varied Terrains 2 17 58.82% 49.41 88.24% 0.991 1.6828 -0.354
Ward the Shores 2 70 48.53% 31.84 61.43% -0.989 -0.1265 -0.483

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 431 35.47 59.63% -0.029 0.1311 -0.171
Aid From Lesser Spirits 460 36.13 60.43% -0.117 -0.2029 0.175
All Things Weaken 236 32.75 58.05% 0.954 1.2957 -0.21
Attenuated Essence 31 31.32 38.71% -0.804 -0.7302 -1.006
Back Against the Wall 453 34.68 57.17% 0.55 0.6248 -0.139
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 31 33.48 61.29% -0.046 0.1448 0.36
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 30.74 48.39% -0.204 -0.0802 -0.47
Disintegrating Ecosystem 388 30.74 52.06% 0.016 0.3893 -0.543
Downward Spiral 941 28.59 62.06% 0.003 0.1401 0.041
Erosion of Will 414 32.62 54.59% 0.113 0.4078 -0.349
Intensifying Exploitation 39 27.97 43.59% -0.077 0.1619 -0.061
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 113 37.63 85.84% 1.454 0.9217 0.721
Memory Fades to Dust 932 27.5 59.76% -0.117 0.1634 -0.165
Power Corrodes the Spirit 239 33.49 55.23% -0.756 -0.6029 -0.222
Promising Farmlands 438 30.2 54.34% 0.207 0.5533 -0.647
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 35.39 51.22% -0.793 -0.5983 -0.251
Slow Dissolution of Will 30 30.4 46.67% -1.144 -0.693 -0.231
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 56 43.11 92.86% 1.011 0.2707 0.572
The Border of Life and Death 9 17.67 55.56% -0.354 -0.7875 -0.506
Thriving Communities 276 32.5 55.8% -1.054 -0.7551 -0.313
Thriving Crops 18 31.0 55.56% 0.276 0.1732 -0.444
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.497
Unnatural Proliferation 269 37.91 61.71% 0.62 0.7656 0.131
Untended Land Crumbles 272 31.58 51.47% 0.056 0.3554 -0.312

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5367 44.63% 31.45 71.94% -0.196 0.7986 -0.001
B 5201 44.15% 30.87 71.24% 0.049 0.9669 -0.223
C 5292 45.39% 32.22 72.34% -0.142 0.6005 -0.009
D 5399 46.13% 31.54 72.14% -0.125 0.8262 -0.196
E 1948 48.62% 34.99 71.46% -0.114 0.6661 0.179
F 1981 46.28% 34.06 75.37% 0.13 1.0227 0.19
G 1736 46.49% 34.18 75.63% 0.558 1.4129 0.041
H 1813 44.66% 34.1 74.52% -0.144 0.7038 0.029

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 590 0.0% 16.43 61.86% -0.022 0.6074 0.14
Not Using Events or Tokens 2296 40.45% 22.67 73.04% -0.5 0.006 -0.347
Skip Initial Invader Actions 295 24.35% 36.69 82.71% 0.083 -0.5519 0.412
Start of Game Growth 428 22.32% 36.71 84.11% 0.902 0.5123 0.808
Unlimited Undo 1544 36.6% 34.22 79.34% -0.209 -0.1647 0.696
Using Tokens but Not Events 1232 34.77% 29.44 77.84% -0.147 -0.1745 0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2094 17.67 13.99%
II 4973 30.7 67.99%
III 4976 34.75 88.93%
IV 2361 38.22 99.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 293
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4339
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3259
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2346
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 738
Lose: Invader deck ran out 136
Lose: Adversary condition 950
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Scenario condition 62
Win: Scenario condition 180
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1940
Lose: Spirit destroyed 123

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)