Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 29.0 -1.027 89.29% 0.131 0.4086
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 30 50.0% 30.93 -0.099 83.33% -0.215 0.1792
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 44 40.48% 38.57 3.59 77.27% -0.844 0.0338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 58 53.45% 39.93 4.315 72.41% -0.981 0.2703
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 42 85.71% 36.02 2.622 47.62% -1.771 -0.2494
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 43 97.67% 36.21 3.168 37.21% -1.8 0.1769
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 74 86.49% 43.46 6.517 47.3% -1.731 0.3189
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 242 28.75% 25.5 -2.41 93.8% 0.561 0.6017
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 227 36.73% 29.27 -0.318 84.58% -0.25 -0.2788
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 282 39.5% 39.22 4.374 88.65% 0.086 0.0912
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 268 48.69% 43.68 6.536 82.84% -0.314 -0.025
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 178 44.63% 46.79 7.881 82.02% -0.547 -0.1799
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 75 58.11% 51.07 10.067 74.67% -0.809 0.0204
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 231 78.41% 47.03 8.527 56.28% -1.44 -0.1982
The Kingdom of England 0 1 146 32.41% 24.69 -2.787 84.93% -0.414 -0.0814
The Kingdom of England 1 3 123 45.53% 31.07 0.729 76.42% -0.618 -0.1138
The Kingdom of England 2 4 158 62.66% 30.66 0.209 65.19% -1.195 -0.227
The Kingdom of England 3 6 212 57.14% 36.8 3.279 58.96% -1.53 0.0478
The Kingdom of England 4 7 173 57.99% 39.13 4.241 56.65% -1.743 -0.245
The Kingdom of England 5 9 77 59.74% 45.66 7.337 51.95% -1.886 0.1808
The Kingdom of England 6 11 433 57.74% 48.75 8.959 52.66% -2.142 0.113
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 80 33.77% 28.66 -1.229 86.25% -0.284 0.2308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 69 72.46% 28.91 -0.36 75.36% -0.37 0.5254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 137 49.64% 36.08 2.396 62.77% -1.597 0.5399
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 102 59.41% 39.07 4.21 51.96% -1.852 0.3331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 234 51.71% 48.37 8.611 66.24% -1.484 0.6623
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 44 56.82% 55.09 11.467 70.45% -1.086 0.734
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 354 53.67% 56.42 12.453 61.3% -1.7 0.4069
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 116 29.57% 23.22 -3.603 86.21% -0.277 -0.1919
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 98 40.21% 28.07 -0.778 81.63% -0.253 -0.2319
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 137 48.18% 32.34 0.858 85.4% -0.031 0.201
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 129 55.81% 37.73 3.89 73.64% -0.708 -0.4217
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 88 72.41% 37.26 4.038 69.32% -0.579 0.1984
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 38 63.16% 39.82 4.983 60.53% -1.089 0.0677
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 196 68.56% 44.04 7.02 63.78% -1.091 0.0401
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 25.0% 29.06 -2.115 93.75% -0.026 -0.1316
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 13 53.85% 38.0 2.971 100.0% 0.903 1.646
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 25.0% 36.25 1.828 81.25% -0.741 -0.3093
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 41 63.41% 40.32 4.429 68.29% -0.991 0.2582
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 36 69.44% 43.42 5.941 66.67% -1.096 0.0307
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 54.82 11.576 72.73% -0.574 1.4446
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 59 71.19% 56.29 11.964 55.93% -1.744 0.1616

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 53 49.06% 26.36 -2.912 71.7% -0.338 0.2348
Dahan Insurrection 4 106 33.02% 55.16 10.761 78.3% -0.055 0.3449
Despicable Theft 2 9 33.33% 39.78 3.012 100.0% 0.481 0.7633
Elemental Invocation 1 7 57.14% 34.57 0.521 100.0% 0.672 1.1112
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 207 16.0% 41.77 3.084 73.43% -0.645 -0.2791
Powers Long Forgotten 1 36 55.56% 31.44 -0.27 69.44% -0.466 -0.0246
Rituals of Terror 3 31 29.03% 40.29 4.646 80.65% -0.147 0.497
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 82.61% 37.78 2.866 69.57% 0.089 0.7308
Second Wave 0 427 45.37% 31.85 -0.137 78.45% -0.327 0.1008
Ward the Shores 2 69 55.22% 35.12 0.992 68.12% -0.782 0.2548

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 260 34.27 -1.293 56.54% -1.709 0.3646
Aid From Lesser Spirits 269 35.1 -0.569 61.34% -1.516 0.4033
All Things Weaken 87 29.59 -3.241 50.57% -2.065 0.0942
Back Against the Wall 259 33.73 -1.485 54.44% -1.832 0.2624
Disintegrating Ecosystem 226 29.77 -3.205 52.65% -1.95 0.2741
Downward Spiral 609 27.89 -2.633 63.38% -1.619 0.4019
Erosion of Will 256 31.98 -2.126 56.25% -1.828 0.3811
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 41.27 2.329 82.22% -0.24 0.4525
Memory Fades to Dust 606 27.38 -2.884 61.06% -1.799 0.4194
Power Corrodes the Spirit 90 32.84 -2.509 52.22% -1.975 0.0457
Promising Farmlands 291 30.1 -2.985 56.01% -1.849 0.3658
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 41.25 2.44 100.0% 0.843 1.254
Thriving Communities 110 34.71 -1.116 61.82% -1.63 0.463
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.668 47.29% -2.137 0.0887
Unnatural Proliferation 128 39.38 0.959 65.63% -1.28 0.8097
Untended Land Crumbles 86 35.36 -0.974 59.3% -1.624 0.4818

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3114 44.33% 32.02 -0.473 75.79% -0.183 -1.2948
B 2913 45.18% 31.51 -0.677 75.45% -0.124 -1.332
C 3069 45.48% 33.3 0.239 77.03% 0.072 -1.3675
D 3510 45.35% 32.85 -0.263 76.3% -0.115 -1.317
E 732 48.96% 37.62 1.23 75.96% 0.128 -1.1847
F 977 45.74% 35.03 0.401 79.84% 0.106 -1.1595
G 828 44.78% 34.95 0.625 79.59% 0.188 -1.069
H 971 43.05% 36.17 0.707 78.58% -0.053 -1.3189

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 373 0.0% 17.74 -5.683 66.76% -2.147 -0.0923
Not Using Events or Tokens 1463 42.92% 23.87 -3.466 77.85% -0.185 0.0326
Skip Initial Invader Actions 192 15.54% 36.03 1.811 91.15% 0.504 -0.1896
Start of Game Growth 274 17.54% 36.31 1.417 89.78% 0.219 -0.2444
Unlimited Undo 911 34.87% 34.76 0.925 84.41% 0.417 -0.0039
Using Tokens but Not Events 780 34.24% 31.09 -1.09 82.05% 0.061 0.0083

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 877 22.34 24.63%
II 2924 30.81 69.46%
III 2867 34.31 88.84%
IV 1389 37.5 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1862
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1403
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1021
Lose: Invader deck ran out 79
Lose: Adversary condition 559
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Scenario condition 51
Win: Scenario condition 130
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1116
Lose: Spirit destroyed 73

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)