Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 30 36.67% 28.27 -1.532 86.67% -0.117 0.1719
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 32 50.0% 30.66 -0.418 81.25% -0.421 -0.0065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 46 40.91% 38.98 3.652 78.26% -0.795 0.0877
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 68 54.41% 39.25 3.823 72.06% -1.046 0.1963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 48 85.42% 38.58 3.805 54.17% -1.54 -0.0437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 49 97.96% 35.86 2.971 36.73% -1.838 0.1009
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 91 89.01% 41.77 5.573 42.86% -1.973 0.0701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 257 29.8% 25.42 -2.547 93.77% 0.565 0.606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 245 36.21% 29.17 -0.451 84.08% -0.312 -0.3303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 306 40.0% 39.44 4.396 89.22% 0.125 0.1383
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 288 48.08% 43.96 6.577 83.68% -0.286 -0.0021
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 199 43.94% 47.35 8.054 83.42% -0.486 -0.1265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 82 56.79% 51.63 10.198 76.83% -0.741 0.0838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 247 78.6% 46.49 8.137 55.06% -1.523 -0.2838
The Kingdom of England 0 1 156 32.9% 24.69 -2.871 85.26% -0.386 -0.056
The Kingdom of England 1 3 136 44.12% 31.48 0.78 77.94% -0.598 -0.0813
The Kingdom of England 2 4 180 60.0% 31.66 0.6 68.33% -1.105 -0.1311
The Kingdom of England 3 6 232 57.83% 37.28 3.405 60.34% -1.478 0.102
The Kingdom of England 4 7 209 60.0% 40.17 4.73 59.81% -1.575 -0.0804
The Kingdom of England 5 9 79 60.76% 45.22 7.012 50.63% -1.936 0.1342
The Kingdom of England 6 11 466 57.51% 48.84 8.946 52.79% -2.145 0.0989
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 84 34.57% 28.77 -1.262 86.9% -0.264 0.2477
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 71 71.83% 29.11 -0.336 76.06% -0.357 0.5451
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 147 50.34% 36.27 2.34 63.27% -1.613 0.528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 113 62.5% 39.29 4.261 53.1% -1.778 0.4203
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 240 51.67% 48.23 8.459 65.83% -1.531 0.6298
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 50 56.0% 55.02 11.162 68.0% -1.282 0.5355
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 373 52.82% 55.91 12.108 60.32% -1.788 0.3036
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 120 30.25% 23.09 -3.694 85.83% -0.289 -0.2
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 102 39.6% 28.15 -0.855 81.37% -0.307 -0.2722
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 148 47.97% 32.46 0.845 86.49% 0.051 0.2887
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 145 57.24% 37.92 3.789 73.79% -0.746 -0.4553
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 93 71.74% 37.58 4.027 69.89% -0.599 0.1826
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 43 60.47% 40.79 5.41 62.79% -1.081 0.0872
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 213 69.19% 44.16 6.968 64.32% -1.076 0.0469
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 18 22.22% 28.67 -2.378 94.44% 0.001 -0.088
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 14 57.14% 36.07 2.135 92.86% 0.45 1.229
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 26.32% 38.0 2.394 84.21% -0.575 -0.1636
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 44 65.91% 40.66 4.486 70.45% -0.895 0.3488
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 45 62.22% 46.78 7.342 73.33% -0.895 0.2129
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 75.0% 55.75 11.947 75.0% -0.486 1.4979
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 66 74.24% 53.94 10.692 51.52% -1.981 -0.1089

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 56 46.43% 26.93 -2.654 73.21% -0.309 0.2569
Dahan Insurrection 4 113 31.86% 56.04 11.065 78.76% -0.065 0.3358
Despicable Theft 2 10 40.0% 38.7 2.289 90.0% 0.035 0.3094
Elemental Invocation 1 9 44.44% 35.67 1.095 100.0% 0.691 1.1935
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 217 16.19% 41.65 3.006 73.27% -0.662 -0.2966
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 57.5% 31.65 -0.389 67.5% -0.514 -0.0677
Rituals of Terror 3 34 35.29% 41.41 5.279 79.41% 0.091 0.736
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 82.61% 37.78 2.827 69.57% 0.083 0.7297
Second Wave 0 440 45.85% 31.87 -0.19 78.18% -0.348 0.0823
Ward the Shores 2 70 55.88% 34.94 0.894 68.57% -0.758 0.2734

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 280 34.6 -1.199 57.86% -1.665 0.4042
Aid From Lesser Spirits 298 35.61 -0.378 62.75% -1.452 0.4609
All Things Weaken 106 30.98 -2.75 50.94% -2.045 0.1146
Back Against the Wall 285 34.06 -1.376 54.74% -1.822 0.2649
Disintegrating Ecosystem 242 30.07 -3.093 53.72% -1.915 0.3072
Downward Spiral 638 28.14 -2.592 63.64% -1.6 0.422
Erosion of Will 268 32.54 -1.952 56.72% -1.795 0.4123
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 56 40.13 1.89 80.36% -0.405 0.2734
Memory Fades to Dust 637 27.52 -2.84 60.91% -1.795 0.4196
Power Corrodes the Spirit 101 33.1 -2.328 52.48% -1.911 0.1098
Promising Farmlands 312 30.13 -3.029 55.45% -1.867 0.3406
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 43.48 3.304 100.0% 0.936 1.3472
Thriving Communities 134 34.47 -1.239 63.43% -1.625 0.4635
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.718 47.29% -2.145 0.0793
Unnatural Proliferation 141 39.65 1.093 65.96% -1.241 0.8396
Untended Land Crumbles 104 33.76 -1.762 55.77% -1.786 0.316

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 3319 44.16% 32.21 -0.468 76.02% -0.193 -0.8807
B 3115 45.38% 31.68 -0.693 75.38% -0.144 -0.9281
C 3298 45.4% 33.42 0.185 77.08% 0.045 -0.9678
D 3692 45.66% 32.91 -0.323 76.08% -0.134 -0.9113
E 847 48.8% 37.96 1.37 76.62% 0.173 -0.7213
F 1094 46.11% 35.3 0.43 80.07% 0.1 -0.7404
G 935 46.0% 35.38 0.721 79.57% 0.22 -0.6118
H 1048 43.6% 36.14 0.637 78.91% -0.049 -0.8883

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 397 0.0% 17.76 -5.704 67.0% -2.102 -0.0492
Not Using Events or Tokens 1554 42.39% 24.02 -3.45 77.73% -0.221 -0.0058
Skip Initial Invader Actions 200 15.03% 35.67 1.66 90.5% 0.416 -0.2708
Start of Game Growth 283 17.17% 36.18 1.375 89.4% 0.217 -0.252
Unlimited Undo 979 35.27% 35.01 0.989 84.47% 0.424 0.0014
Using Tokens but Not Events 820 33.83% 30.98 -1.253 81.95% 0.012 -0.0394

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 923 22.37 24.27%
II 3128 30.88 69.21%
III 3126 34.39 88.84%
IV 1497 37.55 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 120
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2086
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1533
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1129
Lose: Invader deck ran out 85
Lose: Adversary condition 603
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 53
Win: Scenario condition 137
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1199
Lose: Spirit destroyed 75

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)