Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 23 34.78% 28.74 -1.162 86.96% -0.032 0.2487
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 26 50.0% 30.35 -0.394 80.77% -0.375 0.0149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 39 37.84% 38.49 3.59 76.92% -0.852 0.0184
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 54.0% 39.72 4.185 72.0% -0.974 0.2832
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 35 88.57% 33.89 1.694 40.0% -1.942 -0.4131
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 42 97.62% 35.45 2.928 35.71% -1.809 0.2174
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 61 85.25% 42.03 5.949 44.26% -1.807 0.2628
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 236 29.06% 25.52 -2.373 94.07% 0.628 0.666
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 221 36.2% 29.42 -0.241 85.07% -0.201 -0.2318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 267 38.72% 39.38 4.523 88.76% 0.145 0.15
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 252 47.01% 44.15 6.818 83.73% -0.23 0.0615
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 169 44.64% 47.3 8.179 83.43% -0.403 -0.0417
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 73 59.72% 50.78 9.957 73.97% -0.794 0.0344
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 214 78.57% 46.27 8.222 54.21% -1.482 -0.2376
The Kingdom of England 0 1 137 33.82% 24.7 -2.719 84.67% -0.372 -0.0404
The Kingdom of England 1 3 120 46.67% 30.89 0.715 75.83% -0.62 -0.1196
The Kingdom of England 2 4 151 61.59% 30.82 0.334 65.56% -1.153 -0.1831
The Kingdom of England 3 6 200 56.57% 36.23 3.069 57.0% -1.577 0.0018
The Kingdom of England 4 7 162 58.86% 38.57 4.013 54.94% -1.778 -0.2768
The Kingdom of England 5 9 74 60.81% 45.97 7.596 52.7% -1.773 0.2971
The Kingdom of England 6 11 412 58.5% 48.47 8.846 51.94% -2.138 0.1138
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 77 35.14% 28.58 -1.167 85.71% -0.264 0.2615
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 64 73.44% 28.84 -0.212 75.0% -0.296 0.5975
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 127 48.82% 36.25 2.514 62.99% -1.56 0.5695
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 99 58.59% 38.95 4.242 51.52% -1.822 0.365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 232 51.72% 48.43 8.678 66.38% -1.457 0.6853
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 39 53.85% 53.77 10.741 66.67% -1.287 0.536
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 336 52.38% 56.51 12.508 61.31% -1.705 0.4107
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 112 30.63% 23.27 -3.542 85.71% -0.293 -0.204
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 93 38.04% 28.41 -0.585 81.72% -0.245 -0.2253
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 126 47.62% 32.56 1.042 84.92% -0.02 0.2024
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 126 56.35% 37.76 3.974 73.81% -0.653 -0.3673
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 81 71.25% 37.54 4.294 70.37% -0.487 0.28
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 38 63.16% 39.82 5.03 60.53% -1.048 0.1119
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 180 66.85% 44.56 7.304 65.0% -1.025 0.1075
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 18.18% 27.45 -2.263 90.91% -0.128 -0.2476
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 44.44% 38.67 3.313 100.0% 0.478 1.1966
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 21.43% 37.0 2.25 85.71% -0.46 -0.0181
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 35 62.86% 41.4 4.974 71.43% -0.817 0.4335
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 27 85.19% 38.67 3.901 55.56% -1.314 -0.1902
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 54.82 11.557 72.73% -0.58 1.4661
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 53 75.47% 55.3 11.608 54.72% -1.691 0.2427

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 49 51.02% 27.0 -2.657 69.39% -0.376 0.2047
Dahan Insurrection 4 97 35.05% 55.58 10.912 77.32% -0.022 0.3819
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 41.38 3.839 100.0% 0.528 0.8777
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 34.83 0.6 100.0% 0.639 1.011
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 192 17.2% 41.96 3.126 72.4% -0.661 -0.2961
Powers Long Forgotten 1 35 57.14% 31.46 -0.189 68.57% -0.408 0.0333
Rituals of Terror 3 30 30.0% 40.23 4.686 80.0% -0.131 0.5033
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 82.61% 37.78 2.926 69.57% 0.102 0.7431
Second Wave 0 409 45.32% 31.87 -0.088 78.48% -0.303 0.1205
Ward the Shores 2 68 54.55% 34.94 0.883 67.65% -0.805 0.2362

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 244 34.95 -0.952 56.56% -1.654 0.4166
Aid From Lesser Spirits 254 34.73 -0.683 60.63% -1.531 0.3905
All Things Weaken 80 29.4 -3.243 50.0% -2.033 0.1208
Back Against the Wall 235 32.83 -1.886 51.91% -1.925 0.1709
Disintegrating Ecosystem 217 29.52 -3.297 51.61% -1.985 0.2403
Downward Spiral 586 27.68 -2.695 62.97% -1.62 0.3987
Erosion of Will 235 31.43 -2.28 56.17% -1.823 0.3873
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 42.13 2.536 81.58% -0.221 0.4725
Memory Fades to Dust 576 27.25 -2.905 60.59% -1.802 0.4132
Power Corrodes the Spirit 80 34.61 -1.549 56.25% -1.698 0.319
Promising Farmlands 271 29.88 -3.053 54.98% -1.863 0.3505
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 37.76 1.257 100.0% 0.751 1.1811
Thriving Communities 100 34.71 -0.895 62.0% -1.546 0.5502
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.682 47.29% -2.152 0.0692
Unnatural Proliferation 119 39.74 1.116 65.55% -1.253 0.8334
Untended Land Crumbles 78 35.05 -0.925 58.97% -1.58 0.5163

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2972 44.18% 32.04 -0.416 75.47% -0.179 -1.2805
B 2774 44.92% 31.36 -0.716 75.34% -0.127 -1.3229
C 2919 45.38% 33.26 0.264 76.81% 0.077 -1.3512
D 3354 45.0% 32.89 -0.184 76.24% -0.095 -1.2856
E 633 49.12% 37.5 1.216 75.51% 0.137 -1.1615
F 897 46.22% 35.0 0.479 79.82% 0.158 -1.0963
G 742 43.84% 34.3 0.35 78.44% 0.073 -1.1695
H 893 43.22% 36.01 0.717 78.39% -0.027 -1.2839

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 347 0.0% 17.54 -5.719 66.28% -2.122 -0.0734
Not Using Events or Tokens 1399 42.92% 23.96 -3.438 77.7% -0.198 0.0227
Skip Initial Invader Actions 178 15.11% 36.1 1.872 91.01% 0.434 -0.2713
Start of Game Growth 259 16.89% 36.34 1.494 90.35% 0.351 -0.1009
Unlimited Undo 858 34.28% 34.37 0.788 84.03% 0.373 -0.0434
Using Tokens but Not Events 743 34.82% 30.96 -1.127 81.43% 0.036 -0.015

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 836 22.33 24.16%
II 2766 30.75 69.49%
III 2688 34.25 88.58%
IV 1302 37.47 99.77%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 98
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1697
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1302
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 935
Lose: Invader deck ran out 77
Lose: Adversary condition 537
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Scenario condition 48
Win: Scenario condition 121
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1059
Lose: Spirit destroyed 67

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)