Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 49 38.78% 31.14 1.525 91.84% 0.273 0.7413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 43 41.86% 32.28 0.212 83.72% 0.059 0.2893
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 73 42.25% 40.4 79.45%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 91 54.95% 39.6 4.164 69.23% -0.366 1.0573
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 81 90.12% 37.14 1.212 48.15% -0.743 0.6813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 59 94.92% 36.39 -5.95 37.29% -0.663 1.4912
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 140 85.0% 41.94 9.959 43.57% -0.538 1.7444
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 327 32.0% 25.54 -2.736 92.05% -0.23 -0.3292
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 330 36.59% 29.61 0.528 86.06% 0.214 -0.0572
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 425 37.83% 40.24 2.59 90.12% 0.059 0.219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 382 50.13% 44.25 4.054 83.77% -0.221 0.137
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 341 43.36% 48.37 8.086 85.34% 0.372 0.71
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 129 60.16% 50.7 2.116 73.64% -0.839 0.1371
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 357 79.32% 47.41 8.534 55.74% -0.818 0.6749
The Kingdom of England 0 1 198 32.14% 25.46 -2.447 85.35% 0.52 0.9777
The Kingdom of England 1 3 177 44.32% 31.38 -0.277 77.4% -0.329 0.2575
The Kingdom of England 2 4 232 59.91% 32.17 -1.574 68.97% -0.667 0.4823
The Kingdom of England 3 6 293 59.45% 37.29 0.801 60.75% -0.46 1.15
The Kingdom of England 4 7 254 59.6% 40.11 8.938 59.06% 0.408 1.8388
The Kingdom of England 5 9 90 60.0% 45.94 8.671 52.22% -0.449 1.6889
The Kingdom of England 6 11 597 59.46% 49.35 5.936 52.6% -1.072 1.4075
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 98 32.63% 29.55 2.049 86.73% 0.32 1.0376
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 88 71.59% 28.97 -2.272 75.0% -0.222 0.9378
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 181 54.14% 35.87 1.531 61.33% -0.325 1.6819
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 145 65.97% 39.03 0.667 52.41% -0.813 1.3631
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 271 52.4% 46.89 -1.608 61.99% -1.514 0.6541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 68 55.88% 52.75 1.609 61.76% -1.635 0.16
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 527 58.44% 55.21 13.699 57.31% -0.295 1.9021
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 0.0% 32.43 -2.712 100.0% 0.237 -0.0079
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 44.44% 28.56 -5.659 55.56% -0.512 0.442
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 20 35.0% 35.5 3.058 80.0% -0.085 1.0505
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 36 44.44% 44.22 6.304 83.33% 0.315 1.1365
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 29 65.52% 48.24 7.058 82.76% 0.69 1.7816
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 29 48.28% 55.48 11.337 89.66% 0.655 1.9598
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 86 68.6% 55.98 7.458 65.12% -0.901 0.7395
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 148 34.01% 23.18 -4.442 85.14% -0.064 -0.0068
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 135 41.35% 29.26 0.153 83.7% 0.73 0.8345
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 193 46.63% 33.38 2.813 87.56% 0.348 0.6267
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 199 59.8% 38.06 -6.358 73.37% -1.298 -0.8774
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 121 73.33% 38.46 4.65 71.07% -0.164 0.8608
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 54 61.11% 40.57 -5.102 61.11% -0.314 0.8797
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 317 71.11% 45.37 6.758 65.93% -0.127 1.0214
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 33 18.18% 28.36 -1.433 93.94% 0.078 -0.3367
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 42 50.0% 35.26 1.687 90.48% 0.623 1.2686
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 41 39.02% 39.73 4.989 87.8% 0.321 0.8175
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 58 58.62% 43.72 5.209 75.86% -0.171 1.2416
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 61 59.02% 47.28 12.94 73.77% 0.595 1.6826
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 31 74.19% 46.55 -4.569 51.61% -1.075 0.8462
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 129 77.52% 51.0 8.241 42.64% -0.919 1.0774

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0% 0.227 0.1878
Blitz 0 57 38.6% 32.46 78.95% 0.117 0.6761 -0.857
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 33.0% 59.07 81.19% 0.031 0.1146 0.834
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% -0.54 0.0276 -0.023
Elemental Invocation 1 20 50.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.014
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 198 12.7% 43.04 75.25% 0.435 0.6241 -0.016
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 50.0% 30.1 70.0% 0.246 0.7609 -0.137
Rituals of Terror 3 26 30.77% 42.46 84.62% 0.256
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.252
Second Wave 0 444 40.45% 31.03 81.31% 0.51 1.0671 0.217
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 42.0 100.0% 0.224
Ward the Shores 2 60 50.0% 35.98 70.0% -0.473 0.3328 0.148

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 384 35.94 60.42% -0.954 1.0209 -0.451
Aid From Lesser Spirits 403 36.64 62.28% 0.306 2.048 -0.276
All Things Weaken 184 33.53 55.43% -0.289 1.7794 -0.629
Back Against the Wall 410 35.49 57.07% -0.792 1.1252 -0.51
Disintegrating Ecosystem 330 30.63 52.12% -1.151 0.9309 -0.852
Downward Spiral 826 29.05 63.32% -1.196 0.684 -0.391
Erosion of Will 364 32.49 54.4% -1.189 0.8983 -0.762
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 90 39.52 82.22% -0.558 -0.0409 0.258
Memory Fades to Dust 810 28.15 62.22% -0.782 1.2957 -0.589
Power Corrodes the Spirit 184 33.97 57.07% -1.32 0.5799 -0.701
Promising Farmlands 392 30.63 55.36% -0.445 1.5886 -1.074
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 43.7 95.65% 0.049 0.5144 0.62
Thriving Communities 220 34.28 60.0% -0.058 1.9892 -0.54
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.761
Unnatural Proliferation 224 38.46 62.5% -0.567 1.3627 -0.228
Untended Land Crumbles 206 32.5 51.46% -1.208 0.7912 -0.556

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4428 45.48% 33.2 76.4% 0.272 1.0183 -0.046
B 4176 45.83% 32.44 75.93% -0.187 0.5088 -0.303
C 4331 46.34% 34.0 76.77% -0.314 0.1724 -0.042
D 4619 46.98% 33.09 75.6% -0.529 0.1835 -0.241
E 1451 48.88% 37.9 76.43% 0.261 0.8228 0.234
F 1562 46.86% 35.61 79.64% 0.499 1.169 0.267
G 1366 46.57% 34.92 78.77% 0.293 0.8946 0.089
H 1454 44.8% 35.6 78.27% -0.283 0.38 0.052

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 480 0.0% 17.96 67.92% -0.364 1.8112
Not Using Events or Tokens 1909 42.1% 24.34 78.68% 0.84 1.0751 -0.158
Skip Initial Invader Actions 240 16.48% 37.61 90.83% 0.64 -0.5438 0.387
Start of Game Growth 351 18.75% 37.99 89.74% 0.546 0.1142 0.298
Unlimited Undo 1279 35.78% 36.52 85.46% 0.734 0.2527 0.872
Using Tokens but Not Events 1047 35.28% 31.44 82.14% 0.482 0.6327 0.206

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1254 22.67 21.13%
II 4213 31.11 70.0%
III 4248 34.68 88.98%
IV 2004 37.94 99.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 265
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3700
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2836
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1993
Lose: Invader deck ran out 116
Lose: Adversary condition 812
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 168
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1635
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)