Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 16.67% 30.0 100.0% 0.598 0.3422
Blitz 0 70 43.48% 33.64 77.14% 0.191 0.3883 -0.6
Dahan Insurrection 4 108 32.71% 58.01 80.56% -0.045 -0.4872 0.863
Despicable Theft 2 15 46.67% 37.13 80.0% 0.627 1.4391 -0.043
Elemental Invocation 1 24 50.0% 32.83 83.33% -0.57 0.1326 -0.3
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 205 12.24% 42.73 75.12% 0.729 0.0845 0.116
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 53.49% 29.58 67.44% -0.606 0.0294 -0.153
Rituals of Terror 3 28 28.57% 44.39 85.71% 0.489 0.5897 0.531
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.277
Second Wave 0 492 40.78% 31.16 80.49% 0.649 0.7148 0.329
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 46.8 90.0% 0.542 1.1648 -0.27
Ward the Shores 2 62 50.0% 35.24 67.74% -0.501 0.5837 -0.046

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 410 35.87 60.24% -0.42 -0.1778 -0.296
Aid From Lesser Spirits 424 36.31 61.32% -0.525 -0.6021 -0.089
All Things Weaken 208 32.71 54.81% -0.619 -0.2261 -0.495
Attenuated Essence 13 28.69 38.46% -0.272 -0.1655 -0.648
Back Against the Wall 430 35.29 56.98% -0.454 -0.3962 -0.322
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 37.92 69.23% 0.248 0.4497 0.239
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 30.93 42.86% -0.516 -0.3055 -0.934
Disintegrating Ecosystem 358 30.89 52.51% -0.425 -0.0009 -0.685
Downward Spiral 874 29.06 62.81% -0.409 -0.1734 -0.219
Erosion of Will 381 32.52 53.81% -0.21 0.0991 -0.574
Intensifying Exploitation 25 25.48 44.0% -0.248 0.0393 -0.586
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 98 39.21 83.67% 1.429 0.935 0.528
Memory Fades to Dust 854 27.85 61.36% -0.466 -0.1294 -0.424
Power Corrodes the Spirit 216 33.84 56.48% 0.355 0.5751 -0.405
Promising Farmlands 415 30.52 54.7% -0.555 -0.1019 -0.897
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 36.94 61.11% 0.245 0.2962 0.081
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 27.25 50.0% -0.206 0.1932 0.016
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.296 -0.4145 0.844
The Border of Life and Death 7 19.86 71.43% 0.246 -0.0897 -0.386
Thriving Communities 250 33.89 59.6% 0.216 0.5787 -0.303
Thriving Crops 10 26.4 50.0% -0.215 -0.4125 -0.451
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.659
Unnatural Proliferation 239 38.38 61.51% -0.48 -0.2647 -0.026
Untended Land Crumbles 229 32.26 51.09% -0.684 -0.4027 -0.414

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4827 45.36% 32.6 74.5% -0.302 0.4379 0.003
B 4608 44.77% 31.93 74.13% -0.199 0.5264 -0.205
C 4716 45.57% 33.4 75.02% -0.102 0.4799 -0.005
D 4944 46.6% 32.53 74.21% -0.166 0.5458 -0.168
E 1682 49.16% 36.56 73.96% 0.11 0.6751 0.179
F 1743 46.69% 34.82 77.68% 0.08 0.7499 0.181
G 1552 46.49% 34.52 76.55% 0.045 0.6969 -0.005
H 1624 44.76% 35.0 76.66% 0.547 1.1177 0.028

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 514 0.0% 17.35 65.76% -0.632 0.1439
Not Using Events or Tokens 2026 41.34% 23.81 77.05% -0.159 0.22 -0.323
Skip Initial Invader Actions 261 21.18% 36.76 86.21% -0.915 -1.5323 0.509
Start of Game Growth 374 21.22% 37.23 86.9% -0.162 -0.5107 0.389
Unlimited Undo 1409 36.1% 35.27 82.04% -0.358 -0.365 0.517
Using Tokens but Not Events 1118 35.25% 30.53 80.32% 0.078 0.0673 0.151

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1588 20.4 17.38%
II 4553 31.01 69.05%
III 4574 34.76 89.11%
IV 2164 38.07 99.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 276
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3992
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3028
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2153
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 282
Lose: Invader deck ran out 128
Lose: Adversary condition 881
Win: Sacrifice victory 34
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1762
Lose: Spirit destroyed 111

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)