Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 28.33 100.0% 0.15 0.0088
Blitz 0 65 41.54% 33.95 78.46% 0.01 0.3484 -0.643
Dahan Insurrection 4 104 33.01% 58.92 81.73% 0.471 0.2313 0.916
Despicable Theft 2 14 42.86% 37.93 78.57% -0.516 0.0838 -0.002
Elemental Invocation 1 23 52.17% 34.26 86.96% 0.094 0.9258 -0.247
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 200 12.57% 42.91 75.0% 0.161 -0.2057 0.009
Powers Long Forgotten 1 41 51.22% 30.07 70.73% 0.416 0.8827 -0.145
Rituals of Terror 3 27 29.63% 42.44 85.19% 0.229 -0.0443 0.26
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.279
Second Wave 0 460 41.01% 30.92 80.87% -0.304 -0.1172 0.293
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 36.8 80.0% -0.378 0.2289 -0.254
Ward the Shores 2 60 50.0% 35.98 70.0% -0.411 0.4494 0.09

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 391 36.07 60.87% 0.135 1.1067 -0.401
Aid From Lesser Spirits 410 36.6 61.95% 0.095 0.8801 -0.18
All Things Weaken 193 33.54 55.44% -0.079 1.0095 -0.557
Attenuated Essence 2 39.5 50.0% -0.104 0.7829 -0.429
Back Against the Wall 416 35.52 56.97% -0.354 0.4749 -0.427
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 58.0 100.0% 0.588 1.8393 0.508
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 50.0% -0.086 0.8551
Disintegrating Ecosystem 341 31.12 53.08% 0.249 1.3686 -0.75
Downward Spiral 841 29.19 63.38% 0.035 0.9979 -0.286
Erosion of Will 369 32.5 54.2% -0.785 0.3313 -0.681
Intensifying Exploitation 4 29.5 25.0% -0.85 0.2246 0.336
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 92 39.01 82.61% 0.203 0.0871 0.305
Memory Fades to Dust 821 28.1 62.24% 0.281 1.3936 -0.518
Power Corrodes the Spirit 195 33.45 55.38% -0.933 0.0227 -0.604
Promising Farmlands 400 30.57 55.0% -0.579 0.5563 -1.007
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 40.33 66.67% -0.14 0.7826
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 32.5 50.0% -0.016 1.2534 0.285
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 43.83 95.74% 0.397 0.1089 0.678
The Border of Life and Death 3 19.33 66.67% -0.142 0.2702
Thriving Communities 228 33.98 59.65% -0.282 0.8653 -0.403
Thriving Crops 1 27.0 0.0% -0.375 0.5011 -0.304
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.74
Unnatural Proliferation 227 38.36 62.11% -0.351 0.6145 -0.192
Untended Land Crumbles 211 32.74 51.66% -0.189 0.8434 -0.514

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4540 45.39% 33.0 75.93% 0.047 0.916 -0.037
B 4317 45.28% 32.31 75.56% -0.182 0.5854 -0.239
C 4440 45.96% 33.89 76.49% 0.152 0.7467 -0.008
D 4709 46.7% 32.98 75.32% -0.183 0.6366 -0.208
E 1535 48.65% 37.24 75.24% -0.129 0.524 0.186
F 1619 47.19% 35.42 78.94% 0.302 1.033 0.233
G 1431 46.47% 34.81 77.99% 0.246 0.9616 0.078
H 1499 44.66% 35.3 77.52% -0.236 0.4603 0.004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 491 0.0% 17.81 67.41% -0.652 0.8363
Not Using Events or Tokens 1946 41.78% 24.21 78.37% 0.346 0.5371 -0.213
Skip Initial Invader Actions 246 18.09% 38.17 90.24% 0.316 -0.3996 0.495
Start of Game Growth 358 19.66% 38.33 89.39% 0.698 0.2257 0.309
Unlimited Undo 1309 35.87% 36.24 84.8% 0.046 -0.2051 0.86
Using Tokens but Not Events 1079 35.32% 31.04 81.19% -0.039 -0.0378 0.131

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1353 22.19 19.81%
II 4313 31.1 69.81%
III 4349 34.71 89.12%
IV 2056 37.97 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 268
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3793
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2898
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2045
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 70
Lose: Invader deck ran out 119
Lose: Adversary condition 839
Win: Sacrifice victory 32
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 171
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1672
Lose: Spirit destroyed 106

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)