Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
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Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	1217	35.7%	32.24	-0.151	79.79%	-0.577	-0.4727
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	701	59.79%	28.56	-2.053	68.47%	-1.012	-0.8147
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	298	38.73%	30.22	-1.312	79.53%	-0.696	-0.8093
Eyes Watch From the Trees	578	28.04%	37.95	1.646	86.51%	-0.154	-0.5578
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	430	39.76%	32.35	-0.866	77.67%	-0.798	-1.1037
Fractured Days Split the Sky	101	42.0%	40.47	1.465	70.3%	-0.988	-0.6392
Heart of the Wildfire	531	61.8%	27.88	-2.497	67.23%	-0.982	-0.6637
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	1132	42.5%	37.03	1.126	80.48%	-0.298	-0.6409
Lightning's Swift Strike	1567	41.13%	31.93	-0.087	77.47%	-0.577	-0.3511
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	282	42.55%	39.15	1.146	75.53%	-0.77	-1.0564

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	30	36.67%	28.27	-1.532	86.67%	-0.117	0.1719
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	32	50.0%	30.66	-0.418	81.25%	-0.421	-0.0065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	46	40.91%	38.98	3.652	78.26%	-0.795	0.0877
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	68	54.41%	39.25	3.823	72.06%	-1.046	0.1963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	48	85.42%	38.58	3.805	54.17%	-1.54	-0.0437
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	49	97.96%	35.86	2.971	36.73%	-1.838	0.1009
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	91	89.01%	41.77	5.573	42.86%	-1.973	0.0701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	257	29.8%	25.42	-2.547	93.77%	0.565	0.606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	245	36.21%	29.17	-0.451	84.08%	-0.312	-0.3303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	306	40.0%	39.44	4.396	89.22%	0.125	0.1383

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	56	46.43%	26.93	-2.654	73.21%	-0.309	0.2569
Dahan Insurrection	4	113	31.86%	56.04	11.065	78.76%	-0.065	0.3358
Despicable Theft	2	10	40.0%	38.7	2.289	90.0%	0.035	0.3094
Elemental Invocation	1	9	44.44%	35.67	1.095	100.0%	0.691	1.1935
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	217	16.19%	41.65	3.006	73.27%	-0.662	-0.2966
Powers Long Forgotten	1	40	57.5%	31.65	-0.389	67.5%	-0.514	-0.0677
Rituals of Terror	3	34	35.29%	41.41	5.279	79.41%	0.091	0.736
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	23	82.61%	37.78	2.827	69.57%	0.083	0.7297
Second Wave	0	440	45.85%	31.87	-0.19	78.18%	-0.348	0.0823
Ward the Shores	2	70	55.88%	34.94	0.894	68.57%	-0.758	0.2734

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	280	34.6	-1.199	57.86%	-1.665	0.4042
Aid From Lesser Spirits	298	35.61	-0.378	62.75%	-1.452	0.4609
All Things Weaken	106	30.98	-2.75	50.94%	-2.045	0.1146
Back Against the Wall	285	34.06	-1.376	54.74%	-1.822	0.2649
Disintegrating Ecosystem	242	30.07	-3.093	53.72%	-1.915	0.3072
Downward Spiral	638	28.14	-2.592	63.64%	-1.6	0.422
Erosion of Will	268	32.54	-1.952	56.72%	-1.795	0.4123
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	56	40.13	1.89	80.36%	-0.405	0.2734
Memory Fades to Dust	637	27.52	-2.84	60.91%	-1.795	0.4196
Power Corrodes the Spirit	101	33.1	-2.328	52.48%	-1.911	0.1098
Promising Farmlands	312	30.13	-3.029	55.45%	-1.867	0.3406
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	23	43.48	3.304	100.0%	0.936	1.3472
Thriving Communities	134	34.47	-1.239	63.43%	-1.625	0.4635
Tipping Point	129	28.94	-3.718	47.29%	-2.145	0.0793
Unnatural Proliferation	141	39.65	1.093	65.96%	-1.241	0.8396
Untended Land Crumbles	104	33.76	-1.762	55.77%	-1.786	0.316

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	3319	44.16%	32.21	-0.468	76.02%	-0.193	-0.8807
B	3115	45.38%	31.68	-0.693	75.38%	-0.144	-0.9281
C	3298	45.4%	33.42	0.185	77.08%	0.045	-0.9678
D	3692	45.66%	32.91	-0.323	76.08%	-0.134	-0.9113
E	847	48.8%	37.96	1.37	76.62%	0.173	-0.7213
F	1094	46.11%	35.3	0.43	80.07%	0.1	-0.7404
G	935	46.0%	35.38	0.721	79.57%	0.22	-0.6118
H	1048	43.6%	36.14	0.637	78.91%	-0.049	-0.8883

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	397	0.0%	17.76	-5.704	67.0%	-2.102	-0.0492
Not Using Events or Tokens	1554	42.39%	24.02	-3.45	77.73%	-0.221	-0.0058
Skip Initial Invader Actions	200	15.03%	35.67	1.66	90.5%	0.416	-0.2708
Start of Game Growth	283	17.17%	36.18	1.375	89.4%	0.217	-0.252
Unlimited Undo	979	35.27%	35.01	0.989	84.47%	0.424	0.0014
Using Tokens but Not Events	820	33.83%	30.98	-1.253	81.95%	0.012	-0.0394

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	923	22.37	24.27%
II	3128	30.88	69.21%
III	3126	34.39	88.84%
IV	1497	37.55	99.73%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	603
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1199
Lose: Invader deck ran out	85
Lose: Scenario condition	53
Lose: Spirit destroyed	75
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	120
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1533
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	2086
Win: Sacrifice victory	23
Win: Scenario condition	137
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	1129

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)