Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 15 26.67% 28.8 -1.444 86.67% -0.163 0.1175
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 25 48.0% 30.24 -0.55 80.0% -0.403 -0.0301
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 34 37.5% 39.32 4.024 79.41% -0.634 0.2136
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 44 59.09% 39.18 3.813 70.45% -0.962 0.2752
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 93.55% 32.23 0.847 35.48% -2.03 -0.508
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 39 97.44% 34.46 2.344 33.33% -1.939 0.089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 55 85.45% 40.44 5.093 40.0% -1.949 0.1432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 215 28.17% 25.48 -2.372 93.95% 0.612 0.6588
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 203 35.47% 29.51 -0.293 85.22% -0.207 -0.2356
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 229 38.16% 39.9 4.827 90.39% 0.368 0.3658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 225 47.32% 44.18 6.827 83.56% -0.22 0.0641
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 156 46.45% 46.92 7.965 82.05% -0.47 -0.0916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 64 58.73% 52.47 10.692 78.13% -0.561 0.2722
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 199 77.95% 46.11 8.073 53.77% -1.512 -0.2629
The Kingdom of England 0 1 119 34.75% 24.55 -2.747 84.03% -0.387 -0.0544
The Kingdom of England 1 3 105 49.52% 30.41 0.411 74.29% -0.668 -0.1852
The Kingdom of England 2 4 133 61.65% 30.91 0.383 66.17% -1.071 -0.1138
The Kingdom of England 3 6 182 56.11% 35.81 2.857 55.49% -1.616 -0.039
The Kingdom of England 4 7 153 59.73% 39.18 4.296 56.86% -1.649 -0.1268
The Kingdom of England 5 9 69 60.87% 47.01 8.088 55.07% -1.639 0.4249
The Kingdom of England 6 11 377 57.82% 49.05 9.114 53.32% -2.067 0.1884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 74 33.8% 28.51 -1.226 85.14% -0.309 0.2151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 59 72.88% 29.02 -0.165 76.27% -0.231 0.6605
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 118 48.31% 36.16 2.454 62.71% -1.557 0.5709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 87 59.77% 38.56 4.112 50.57% -1.813 0.3729
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 224 51.34% 48.83 8.803 67.41% -1.398 0.7476
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 34 52.94% 55.35 11.528 70.59% -1.041 0.7777
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 300 52.0% 57.71 12.991 63.67% -1.597 0.5381
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 104 33.01% 22.94 -3.668 84.62% -0.326 -0.2411
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 87 39.08% 28.52 -0.536 81.61% -0.209 -0.1999
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 114 46.49% 32.63 1.021 84.21% -0.077 0.1404
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 120 57.5% 37.4 3.787 72.5% -0.694 -0.4092
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 76 70.67% 37.82 4.364 71.05% -0.467 0.3102
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 35 62.86% 39.63 5.009 60.0% -1.011 0.1538
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 160 67.72% 44.76 7.347 65.63% -0.964 0.1681
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 18.18% 27.45 -2.316 90.91% -0.146 -0.2629
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 28.57% 39.0 3.517 100.0% 0.355 1.0434
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 21.43% 37.0 2.101 85.71% -0.462 -0.0261
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 31 58.06% 41.48 4.898 70.97% -0.898 0.3766
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 24 83.33% 38.0 3.372 54.17% -1.423 -0.2652
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 77.78% 56.67 12.498 77.78% -0.29 1.7462
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 44 79.55% 52.84 10.394 50.0% -1.79 0.1593

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 45 46.67% 27.16 -2.708 68.89% -0.447 0.1253
Dahan Insurrection 4 92 33.7% 56.65 11.232 78.26% 0.004 0.4045
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 35.75 0.551 100.0% 0.236 0.7015
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 180 16.67% 41.59 3.0 73.33% -0.67 -0.2945
Powers Long Forgotten 1 33 57.58% 31.39 -0.256 66.67% -0.447 0.0004
Rituals of Terror 3 30 30.0% 40.23 4.696 80.0% -0.13 0.4916
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 21 80.95% 38.05 2.997 66.67% 0.058 0.6818
Second Wave 0 381 44.71% 32.05 -0.033 79.0% -0.285 0.1335
Ward the Shores 2 62 51.67% 34.71 0.93 69.35% -0.737 0.2932

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 221 35.04 -0.877 57.47% -1.652 0.4158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 229 35.07 -0.614 59.83% -1.529 0.3871
All Things Weaken 65 30.38 -2.945 50.77% -1.927 0.2326
Back Against the Wall 213 33.46 -1.709 53.05% -1.866 0.2263
Disintegrating Ecosystem 200 28.93 -3.559 51.5% -1.999 0.2226
Downward Spiral 542 27.57 -2.783 62.73% -1.629 0.3856
Erosion of Will 218 31.94 -2.096 55.96% -1.832 0.3794
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 30 43.67 3.14 80.0% -0.195 0.5168
Memory Fades to Dust 530 27.37 -2.87 61.13% -1.778 0.4373
Power Corrodes the Spirit 69 35.81 -1.05 57.97% -1.581 0.4393
Promising Farmlands 257 29.62 -3.244 54.86% -1.881 0.3331
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 40.07 2.209 100.0% 0.698 1.1146
Thriving Communities 85 35.18 -0.785 62.35% -1.487 0.6202
Tipping Point 129 28.94 -3.779 47.29% -2.181 0.0352
Unnatural Proliferation 92 39.4 0.811 66.3% -1.263 0.8172
Untended Land Crumbles 63 35.89 -0.584 60.32% -1.437 0.6578

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2739 43.89% 32.1 -0.428 75.72% -0.164 -1.2374
B 2540 44.88% 31.42 -0.697 75.55% -0.097 -1.261
C 2696 45.59% 33.32 0.258 76.82% 0.082 -1.3147
D 3112 44.99% 33.02 -0.169 76.41% -0.081 -1.2388
E 511 51.19% 37.53 1.045 73.39% 0.017 -1.2396
F 773 45.39% 35.32 0.618 80.6% 0.189 -1.0373
G 648 43.73% 34.75 0.499 78.24% 0.088 -1.1243
H 787 43.45% 36.06 0.684 78.91% -0.016 -1.2374

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 327 0.0% 17.78 -5.621 66.67% -2.086 -0.0467
Not Using Events or Tokens 1287 43.61% 23.95 -3.492 77.62% -0.196 0.0239
Skip Initial Invader Actions 167 16.28% 36.41 1.883 90.42% 0.323 -0.3826
Start of Game Growth 247 17.31% 36.51 1.434 90.28% 0.354 -0.1056
Unlimited Undo 767 33.13% 34.57 0.878 85.27% 0.457 0.0547
Using Tokens but Not Events 669 35.1% 30.77 -1.237 81.32% 0.008 -0.0384

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 776 22.34 25.0%
II 2495 30.71 69.58%
III 2451 34.23 88.78%
IV 1181 37.48 99.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 90
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1496
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1119
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 815
Lose: Invader deck ran out 69
Lose: Adversary condition 491
Win: Sacrifice victory 18
Lose: Scenario condition 46
Win: Scenario condition 115
Lose: Blight pool ran out 956
Lose: Spirit destroyed 57

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)