Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 16.67% 30.0 100.0% 0.75 0.4728
Blitz 0 70 43.48% 33.64 77.14% 0.221 0.3988 -0.601
Dahan Insurrection 4 108 32.71% 58.01 80.56% -0.136 -0.5297 0.864
Despicable Theft 2 15 46.67% 37.13 80.0% 0.567 1.3623 -0.041
Elemental Invocation 1 24 50.0% 32.83 83.33% -0.559 0.1598 -0.3
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 205 12.24% 42.73 75.12% 0.287 -0.3531 0.116
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 53.49% 29.58 67.44% -0.674 -0.0366 -0.153
Rituals of Terror 3 28 28.57% 44.39 85.71% 0.437 0.5889 0.527
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 15 73.33% 36.07 86.67% -0.276
Second Wave 0 492 40.78% 31.16 80.49% 0.669 0.7358 0.329
Varied Terrains 2 10 60.0% 46.8 90.0% 0.751 1.3843 -0.27
Ward the Shores 2 62 50.0% 35.24 67.74% -0.479 0.6105 -0.046

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 410 35.87 60.24% -0.258 -0.0277 -0.297
Aid From Lesser Spirits 424 36.31 61.32% -0.381 -0.4403 -0.09
All Things Weaken 207 32.76 55.07% -0.368 0.0098 -0.481
Attenuated Essence 12 31.08 41.67% -0.216 -0.1357 -0.474
Back Against the Wall 430 35.29 56.98% -0.448 -0.3989 -0.324
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 37.92 69.23% 0.23 0.4273 0.239
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 30.93 42.86% -0.658 -0.4646 -0.936
Disintegrating Ecosystem 358 30.89 52.51% -0.436 -0.0225 -0.686
Downward Spiral 873 29.06 62.77% -0.454 -0.2105 -0.221
Erosion of Will 381 32.52 53.81% -0.564 -0.2559 -0.576
Intensifying Exploitation 25 25.48 44.0% -0.299 -0.0204 -0.589
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 98 39.21 83.67% 1.417 0.911 0.527
Memory Fades to Dust 854 27.85 61.36% -0.402 -0.0586 -0.424
Power Corrodes the Spirit 216 33.84 56.48% 0.402 0.6385 -0.406
Promising Farmlands 415 30.52 54.7% -0.43 0.0239 -0.898
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 38.56 68.75% 0.393 0.4448 0.082
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 27.25 50.0% -0.198 0.1922 0.019
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 43.85 95.83% 0.273 -0.4377 0.844
The Border of Life and Death 7 19.86 71.43% 0.271 -0.106 -0.386
Thriving Communities 250 33.89 59.6% 0.071 0.4185 -0.305
Thriving Crops 9 29.33 55.56% 0.091 -0.1094 -0.451
Tipping Point 129 28.94 47.29% -0.659
Unnatural Proliferation 239 38.38 61.51% -0.362 -0.1667 -0.027
Untended Land Crumbles 229 32.26 51.09% -0.621 -0.3537 -0.414

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4819 45.39% 32.62 74.54% -0.27 0.4877 0.005
B 4598 44.75% 31.96 74.21% -0.198 0.5409 -0.208
C 4710 45.61% 33.39 75.03% -0.105 0.4817 -0.003
D 4929 46.59% 32.59 74.38% -0.058 0.6582 -0.167
E 1682 49.16% 36.56 73.96% 0.093 0.6677 0.175
F 1740 46.77% 34.86 77.7% -0.033 0.6436 0.18
G 1547 46.58% 34.51 76.54% 0.054 0.7131 0.001
H 1623 44.79% 35.0 76.65% 0.529 1.1051 0.027

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 509 0.0% 17.5 66.4% -0.28 0.4903
Not Using Events or Tokens 2018 41.36% 23.87 77.21% -0.098 0.2774 -0.325
Skip Initial Invader Actions 259 20.4% 36.86 86.87% -0.632 -1.2698 0.51
Start of Game Growth 373 21.29% 37.27 86.86% -0.416 -0.7272 0.389
Unlimited Undo 1405 36.05% 35.33 82.21% -0.185 -0.2076 0.524
Using Tokens but Not Events 1115 35.36% 30.55 80.36% 0.008 0.002 0.148

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1579 20.44 17.48%
II 4545 31.01 69.06%
III 4570 34.76 89.12%
IV 2161 38.06 99.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 276
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3989
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3023
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2150
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 277
Lose: Invader deck ran out 128
Lose: Adversary condition 881
Win: Sacrifice victory 34
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 173
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1755
Lose: Spirit destroyed 110

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)