Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 42.86% 29.43 3.61 85.71% 0.123 0.4693
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 83.33% 33.5 3.761 66.67% 0.186 1.1844
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 33.33% 27.44 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 40.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 22 4.55% 26.86 0.198 90.91% 0.291 0.5075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 27.38 -11.056 76.92% -0.268 -0.3382
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 21 38.1% 42.67 9.58 95.24% 0.534 0.4506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 31 35.48% 36.55 1.495 61.29% -0.852 -0.6367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 45.45% 49.27 2.524 81.82% -0.021 0.2035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 60.0% 50.1 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 15 33.33% 23.73 2.243 80.0% 0.356 0.5649
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 24.25 -3.83 41.67% -0.534 0.1994
The Kingdom of England 3 6 13 46.15% 47.23 -0.443 61.54% -0.352 0.8664
The Kingdom of England 4 7 13 53.85% 38.92 -4.388 46.15% -0.467 0.8132
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 0.0% 45.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 35 28.57% 48.37 1.196 54.29% -0.487 1.508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 26.4 -6.704 80.0% -0.2 0.2139
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 15.4 4.163 20.0% 0.193 0.9996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 25.0% 51.75 21.019 75.0% 0.597 1.7
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 35.71% 42.21 7.237 50.0% 0.203 1.6002
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 10 20.0% 55.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 39.47% 44.5 34.21%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 33.33% 19.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 33.33% 23.22 11.551 33.33% 0.253 0.5262
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 29.6 -9.194 40.0% -0.234 0.6272
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 31.0 9.005 33.33% 0.191 0.8856
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 20 35.0% 62.8 22.231 85.0% 0.202 1.343
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 0.0% 20.0 -0.909 60.0% 0.071 0.2671
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 70.0% 29.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 10 30.0% 28.6 9.914 40.0% 0.155 0.775
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 46.15% 48.23 -8.533 69.23% -0.704 0.294
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 18 27.78% 31.28 -0.328 100.0% 0.162 0.2536
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 20.0 -6.122 50.0% -0.128 0.5319
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 50.0% 46.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 -10.633 0.0% -0.604 1.1133
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 30.0% 59.3 60.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 25 40.0% 26.24 32.0% -0.532
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 20.0% 42.7 50.0% -0.115 -0.35 -0.203
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% -0.657
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 105 4.76% 35.85 62.86% -0.619 -1.3927 -0.109
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.063 0.994
Second Wave 0 39 43.59% 27.49 76.92% -0.371 -0.2909 -0.012
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0% 0.215 0.9072
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 15.6 40.0% -0.029 0.8337

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 45.44 62.5% 0.124
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 28.5 50.0% 0.14 0.0538 0.213
All Things Weaken 14 43.0 85.71% 0.101 0.4431 0.556
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0%
Back Against the Wall 11 49.36 90.91% 0.749
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 26.8 80.0% 0.185
Downward Spiral 11 24.82 63.64% 0.617 0.754 -0.121
Erosion of Will 12 32.67 50.0% -0.063 0.2316 -0.767
Intensifying Exploitation 4 13.5 75.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 54.43 100.0% 0.19
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% 0.322 0.6027 -0.161
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 29.18 36.36% -0.171 -0.0183 0.131
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.321
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 31.9 80.0% -0.641 -0.4458 -0.252
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.188
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 41.43 85.71% 0.225 -0.5153 -0.069
Thriving Communities 11 31.09 63.64% -0.337 -0.038 0.441
Thriving Crops 3 36.67 33.33% -0.352 -0.4547 0.14
Unnatural Proliferation 13 39.0 53.85% -0.732 -0.5864 0.205
Untended Land Crumbles 11 26.73 54.55% 0.215 0.5145 -0.244

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 551 27.09% 31.39 70.96% 0.257 1.251 0.043
B 541 28.15% 30.65 68.58% 0.556 1.4739 -0.66
C 564 27.89% 30.48 68.79% -0.204 0.5389 0.257
D 540 28.94% 30.66 71.48% 0.041 0.9929 0.547
E 570 28.12% 31.15 70.88% -0.341 0.4394 0.177
F 520 28.9% 31.19 69.23% -0.371 0.5213 0.032
G 328 29.57% 29.62 69.51% 0.053 0.9078 -0.86
H 334 29.04% 31.13 75.15% 0.067 0.9147 0.404

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 21 5.0% 32.1 57.14% -0.092 -0.7272 -0.713
Start of Game Growth 69 30.88% 40.19 63.77% -0.338 -0.7276 0.235
Unlimited Undo 45 11.11% 41.29 64.44% -1.138 -1.0935 0.056
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 4.26% 27.21 89.58% 0.315 0.2877 -0.145

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 146 17.67 2.74%
II 224 30.7 83.04%
III 229 34.75 94.32%
IV 65 38.22 96.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 210
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 185
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 63
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 83
Lose: Adversary condition 50
Lose: Scenario condition 28
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)