Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 42.86% 29.43 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 85.71% 34.14 2.678 71.43% 0.195 1.1629
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 33.33% 27.44 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 44.13 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 25 4.0% 27.04 0.263 92.0% 0.256 0.4954
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 27.38 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 23 34.78% 42.83 6.975 95.65% 0.27 0.3788
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 31 35.48% 36.55 61.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 50.0% 48.92 6.861 83.33% 0.318 0.6071
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 54.55% 51.73 6.97 72.73% 0.119 1.6054
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 29.41% 24.53 0.412 82.35% 0.138 0.4665
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 36.5 4.17 100.0% 0.137 0.4403
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 24.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 17 41.18% 40.76 -5.372 47.06% -0.475 0.7199
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 57.14% 37.93 -1.766 42.86% -0.388 0.8291
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 40.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 36 27.78% 48.17 52.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 26.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 15.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 45.4 -1.269 60.0% -0.242 0.8599
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 35.71% 42.21 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 27.27% 55.09 7.096 72.73% 0.245 1.7109
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 39 38.46% 45.21 10.498 35.9% 0.16 1.5805
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 21.5 1.503 75.0% 0.227 0.4731
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 29.8 1.83 80.0% 0.269 0.7314
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 33.33% 23.22 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 29.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 31.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 21 38.1% 62.86 10.122 85.71% 0.142 1.1091
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 0.0% 21.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 58.33% 24.92 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 27.08 -4.566 33.33% -0.68 0.0183
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 14 50.0% 46.79 -0.473 64.29% -0.274 0.8325
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 19 26.32% 30.89 -2.198 100.0% 0.073 0.2431
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 48.0 -5.746 60.0% -0.299 0.7972
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 30.0% 59.3 60.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 25 40.0% 26.24 32.0% -0.471
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 26.67% 44.67 46.67% -0.215
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% -0.685
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 111 5.41% 35.9 63.06% -0.215 -0.94 -0.153
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.25 0.6556
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 41 43.9% 27.34 78.05% -0.019
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 15.6 40.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 45.44 62.5% 0.062
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 28.73 53.33% 0.228 0.169 0.206
All Things Weaken 15 44.4 86.67% 0.142 0.4966 0.919
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0%
Back Against the Wall 11 49.36 90.91% 0.725
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 33.0 100.0% 0.269 0.48
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 26.8 80.0% 0.188
Downward Spiral 11 24.82 63.64% -0.115
Erosion of Will 14 29.43 42.86% -0.551 -0.284 -0.766
Intensifying Exploitation 5 18.4 80.0% 0.195 0.4656
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 50.0 87.5% -0.294 -0.8045 0.248
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% -0.137
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 28.83 33.33% -0.225 0.0699 0.117
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.308
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 31.9 80.0% -0.284
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.197
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 41.43 85.71% -0.097
Thriving Communities 13 32.23 61.54% -0.144 0.1889 0.449
Thriving Crops 3 36.67 33.33% 0.132
Unnatural Proliferation 14 38.07 57.14% 0.204
Untended Land Crumbles 13 34.0 61.54% 0.523

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 596 27.39% 31.19 70.47% 0.09 0.9947 0.002
B 591 27.97% 30.53 68.53% -0.337 0.4912 -0.624
C 616 27.8% 30.45 68.99% 0.331 1.0108 0.257
D 589 28.74% 30.47 70.97% -0.415 0.4381 0.444
E 613 27.12% 31.13 70.96% 0.236 0.937 0.224
F 563 29.0% 30.99 69.27% 0.033 0.8143 0.012
G 359 29.81% 29.33 69.36% 0.344 1.1153 -0.898
H 367 28.34% 30.75 75.2% -0.243 0.525 0.525

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 4.35% 32.75 54.17% -0.231 -0.7936 -0.752
Start of Game Growth 73 29.17% 39.78 63.01% -0.231 -0.7702 0.033
Unlimited Undo 49 10.2% 40.2 61.22% -0.231 -0.1905 0.013
Using Tokens but Not Events 49 4.17% 28.1 89.8% -0.122

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 158 16.23 2.53%
II 241 30.54 82.57%
III 252 34.77 94.05%
IV 71 38.37 97.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 196
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 69
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 91
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)