Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 42.86% 29.43 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 60.0% 38.8 10.143 80.0% 0.223 1.1804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 33.33% 27.44 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 66.67% 41.78 1.073 44.44% -0.214 1.763
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 28 3.57% 26.32 -0.354 89.29% 0.026 0.2406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 27.38 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 27 29.63% 42.81 9.873 96.3% 0.575 0.6504
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 35 34.29% 35.17 -0.543 60.0% -0.137 0.045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 53.85% 48.92 7.41 84.62% 0.128 0.5184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 28.5 -5.143 50.0% -0.117 0.4194
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 14 42.86% 40.64 -6.833 57.14% -0.686 0.6006
The Kingdom of England 0 1 18 27.78% 25.0 4.16 83.33% 0.125 0.5385
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 36.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 24.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 21 52.38% 39.71 5.495 42.86% -0.08 1.0736
The Kingdom of England 4 7 15 53.33% 39.33 19.954 46.67% 0.375 1.4645
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 40.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 36 27.78% 48.17 52.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 26.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 15.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 45.4 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 35.71% 42.21 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 27.27% 55.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 41 39.02% 43.0 -6.216 34.15% -0.523 0.8985
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 21.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 29.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 10 30.0% 25.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 29.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 31.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 25 44.0% 59.88 1.463 76.0% -0.359 0.693
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 0.0% 21.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 58.33% 24.92 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 27.08 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 19 36.84% 34.47 -3.893 47.37% -0.605 0.3391
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 19 26.32% 30.89 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 50.0% 43.5 5.573 75.0% 0.158 0.6645
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 48.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 28.57% 49.36 -4.946 50.0% -0.416 1.4039

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 26 38.46% 25.23 30.77% -0.226 0.0604 -0.489
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 26.67% 44.67 46.67% -0.053
Elemental Invocation 1 5 40.0% 38.8 40.0% -0.214 0.5422 -0.757
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 115 6.09% 35.57 63.48% 0.092 -0.4897 -0.102
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 5 40.0% 15.8 0.0% -0.549 -0.7188 -1.024
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 43 46.51% 26.58 76.74% -0.266 -0.1866 0.017
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 15.6 40.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 45.44 62.5% 0.131
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 28.73 53.33% 0.248
All Things Weaken 19 38.79 78.95% -0.228 0.1376 0.851
Attenuated Essence 5 22.2 40.0% 0.046 0.0449
Back Against the Wall 12 47.08 91.67% 0.082 0.1476 0.759
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 33.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 27.71 57.14% -0.329 0.0472 0.096
Downward Spiral 11 24.82 63.64% -0.137
Erosion of Will 14 29.43 42.86% -0.708
Intensifying Exploitation 5 18.4 80.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 50.0 87.5% 0.25
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% -0.156
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 29.92 38.46% 0.17 0.3826 0.178
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.144
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 37.91 81.82% -0.179
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.206
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 41.43 85.71% -0.087
Thriving Communities 13 32.23 61.54% 0.461
Thriving Crops 3 36.67 33.33% 0.206
Unnatural Proliferation 15 38.33 53.33% -0.136 0.0511 0.087
Untended Land Crumbles 13 34.0 61.54% 0.557

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 638 27.47% 30.81 69.75% 0.457 1.32 0.026
B 632 28.21% 30.22 67.72% -0.275 0.5464 -0.288
C 661 27.58% 29.98 68.08% -0.348 0.3505 0.181
D 635 28.39% 29.83 69.92% 0.597 1.4529 0.294
E 659 27.05% 30.4 69.8% 0.231 0.9195 0.288
F 608 28.34% 30.33 68.42% -0.109 0.7091 -0.026
G 388 29.64% 28.88 68.04% -0.094 0.7868 -0.964
H 397 28.46% 29.98 73.3% -0.403 0.3771 0.425

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 7.69% 31.85 51.85% -0.44 -1.0076 -0.836
Start of Game Growth 76 29.33% 39.18 61.84% -0.44 -1.1047 0.191
Unlimited Undo 52 11.54% 39.31 59.62% -0.44 -0.4172 0.097
Using Tokens but Not Events 50 6.12% 27.98 90.0% 0.149 0.197 -0.218

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 177 15.45 2.26%
II 254 30.45 82.28%
III 270 34.8 93.7%
IV 75 38.47 97.33%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 247
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 206
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 73
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)