Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 18.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 28 35.71% 24.18 32.14% -0.141 0.2822 -0.756
Dahan Insurrection 4 19 21.05% 48.68 57.89% 0.308 -0.1741 0.173
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 5 40.0% 38.8 40.0% -0.753
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 134 5.22% 35.27 62.69% -0.052 -0.7089 0.003
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 8 50.0% 9.88 0.0% -1.353
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
Second Wave 0 47 48.94% 25.62 74.47% -0.129 -0.0347 0.136
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 10 10.0% 14.8 30.0% -0.253 0.6015 -0.487

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 43.11 63.16% 0.294 0.3654 0.244
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 31.25 56.25% 0.191 0.0813 0.455
All Things Weaken 24 35.5 83.33% 1.042
Attenuated Essence 5 22.2 40.0%
Back Against the Wall 13 49.77 92.31% 1.157
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 26.67 66.67% 0.219 0.4024 -0.016
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 27.71 57.14% 0.282
Downward Spiral 12 22.75 58.33% -0.074 0.032 -0.082
Erosion of Will 16 32.0 50.0% 0.206 0.372 -0.778
Intensifying Exploitation 8 21.5 75.0% -0.005 0.1836
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 46.56 88.89% 0.332
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% -0.101
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 32.25 43.75% 0.302 0.3975 0.389
Promising Farmlands 9 42.67 55.56% 0.307 0.6707 0.013
Shattered Fragments of Power 12 39.0 83.33% 0.154 0.2193 -0.11
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.292
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 41.5 87.5% -0.116
Thriving Communities 13 32.23 61.54% 0.588
Thriving Crops 4 27.5 25.0% -0.275 -0.4995 0.294
Unnatural Proliferation 18 34.0 44.44% -0.054
Untended Land Crumbles 14 32.64 64.29% 0.519

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 755 25.99% 29.9 68.08% 0.557 1.4758 0.208
B 758 26.02% 29.06 65.04% 0.126 0.9668 -0.265
C 799 26.07% 28.72 65.33% -0.641 0.0417 0.231
D 782 26.38% 28.34 66.75% -0.046 0.7966 0.053
E 808 25.28% 28.8 66.71% 0.238 0.8899 -0.15
F 746 26.85% 28.72 65.55% 0.173 0.9327 0.125
G 500 26.0% 27.56 64.6% -0.185 0.5731 -0.623
H 511 26.03% 27.51 68.69% -0.171 0.5473 0.352

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 5.41% 29.87 50.0% -0.038 -0.7689 -0.895
Start of Game Growth 120 26.05% 33.52 54.17% -0.945 -1.3907 0.258
Unlimited Undo 70 8.57% 34.77 55.71% -0.68 -0.7128 0.274
Using Tokens but Not Events 56 5.45% 27.16 89.29% 0.652 0.4896 -0.242

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 241 14.25 1.66%
II 303 30.3 80.53%
III 318 34.84 93.71%
IV 88 38.61 97.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 291
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 237
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 86
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 182
Lose: Adversary condition 65
Lose: Scenario condition 32
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)