Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 35.8 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 7.987 100.0% 0.148 0.5829
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 2.26 60.0% 0.085 0.8169
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 100.0% 39.0 4.247 66.67% -0.225 0.8332
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 37.5% 30.88 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 35.17 -6.303 33.33% -0.113 1.8278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 9.09% 28.55 0.24 90.91% 0.125 0.2226
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 27.27% 32.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 53.33% 42.4 8.606 100.0% 0.517 0.4535
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 31.82% 39.27 -4.636 68.18% -1.1 -0.8389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 71.43% 62.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 55.56% 48.11 -5.813 66.67% -0.271 1.0116
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 22.22% 30.0 4.88 100.0% 0.221 0.3963
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 33.33% 35.67 5.431 66.67% 0.065 0.8184
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 44.44% 54.56 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 54.55% 37.18 45.45%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 40.0% 53.75 -4.916 60.0% -0.289 1.7296
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 100.0% 12.67 -2.814 0.0% -0.347 0.6222
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.33 7.878 66.67% 0.09 1.1784
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 20.0% 45.6 1.173 50.0% -0.084 1.3035
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 22.22% 52.56 20.153 66.67% 0.353 1.7863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 -1.267 33.33% -0.75 0.2224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 33 45.45% 42.27 -7.349 30.3% -0.195 1.161
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 33.33% 19.0 -10.0 66.67% -0.621 -0.7078
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 66.67% 19.0 -5.779 33.33% -0.46 -0.1279
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 36.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 10 40.0% 58.7 9.314 80.0% 0.097 1.3746
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 0.0% 24.67 -0.216 66.67% 0.057 0.2065
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 62.5% 58.63 19.522 87.5% 0.279 1.0836
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 60.0% 33.8 10.687 40.0% 0.504 1.5339
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.494 0.0% -0.286 1.1467
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 42.86% 55.0 -7.02 57.14% -0.51 1.4468

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 23 39.13% 26.87 26.09% -0.272 -0.1256 -0.634
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 65.0 66.67% 0.173 -0.0345 0.371
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% -0.642
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 76 6.58% 36.71 67.11% 0.775 0.1686 -0.155
Second Wave 0 26 46.15% 30.04 84.62% 0.013 0.0759 0.006
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13 44.31 61.54% 0.142 0.4129 -0.041
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 45.0 66.67% 0.063 0.1012 0.212
All Things Weaken 12 46.83 91.67% 0.414
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% -0.209 -0.0038
Back Against the Wall 8 54.5 87.5% 0.523
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 26.0 50.0% 0.074 0.3784
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.103
Downward Spiral 6 18.0 50.0% -0.101
Erosion of Will 10 33.3 50.0% -0.495 -0.0872 -0.488
Intensifying Exploitation 1 18.0 0.0% -0.437 -0.0505
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 54.83 100.0% 0.091
Memory Fades to Dust 13 33.08 53.85% 0.138 0.6196 -0.154
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 33.0 25.0% -0.206 0.0988 -0.067
Promising Farmlands 7 45.29 57.14% -0.241
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 50.0 100.0% 0.213 0.3913
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 42.2 80.0% 0.141 -0.5369 -0.086
Thriving Communities 10 34.2 70.0% -0.348 0.1447 0.368
Thriving Crops 2 44.5 50.0% 0.059 0.1474 0.158
Unnatural Proliferation 9 40.67 66.67% 0.161 0.4582 0.706
Untended Land Crumbles 7 30.29 42.86% -0.244

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 368 29.43% 33.85 75.0% 0.267 1.1072 0.213
B 355 29.38% 32.23 69.86% -0.373 0.4061 -0.638
C 372 29.92% 32.99 71.77% -1.005 -0.3513 0.114
D 366 30.41% 33.2 74.32% 0.962 1.7614 0.673
E 370 30.35% 33.61 73.78% 0.347 0.9755 0.061
F 329 28.66% 33.92 71.12% -0.506 0.2137 0.493
G 226 30.09% 30.8 69.91% -0.31 0.4321 -1.186
H 220 27.73% 32.84 77.27% 0.676 1.3243 0.205

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 14 7.69% 39.36 78.57% -0.208 -0.743 -0.241
Start of Game Growth 55 35.19% 42.07 70.91% -0.449 -0.7797 0.004
Unlimited Undo 16 6.25% 48.81 87.5% -0.013 -0.035 -0.159
Using Tokens but Not Events 27 7.69% 32.81 96.3% 0.792 0.7379 -0.159

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 90 21.03 2.22%
II 147 31.04 85.71%
III 157 34.74 94.27%
IV 45 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 145
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 125
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 45
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 26
Lose: Adversary condition 45
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 4
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)