Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 42.86% 29.43 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 83.33% 33.5 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 33.33% 27.44 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 44.13 11.005 50.0% 0.171 2.1192
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 22 4.55% 26.86 -0.639 90.91% 0.163 0.3699
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 27.38 -5.539 76.92% -0.287 -0.2775
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 23 34.78% 42.83 8.899 95.65% 0.474 0.5016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 31 35.48% 36.55 -1.201 61.29% -0.451 -0.1634
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 50.0% 48.92 6.531 83.33% 0.345 0.642
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 60.0% 50.1 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 29.41% 24.53 3.041 82.35% 0.288 0.6117
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 36.5 1.997 100.0% 0.122 0.4174
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 24.25 -5.539 41.67% -0.287 0.4362
The Kingdom of England 3 6 17 41.18% 40.76 -3.83 47.06% -0.884 0.3521
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 57.14% 37.93 -0.324 42.86% -0.329 0.852
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 0.0% 45.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 36 27.78% 48.17 4.321 52.78% -0.197 1.7445
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 26.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 15.4 0.896 20.0% 0.048 0.884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 45.4 0.026 60.0% -0.252 0.7788
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 35.71% 42.21 -7.329 50.0% -0.209 1.1966
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 10 20.0% 55.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 39.47% 44.5 34.21%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 33.33% 19.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 75.0% 29.0 5.227 75.0% 0.355 0.6325
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 33.33% 23.22 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 29.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 31.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 21 38.1% 62.86 14.369 85.71% 0.191 1.2116
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 0.0% 20.0 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 58.33% 24.92 -8.009 66.67% -0.513 -0.3148
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 27.08 -3.025 33.33% -0.635 0.069
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 14 50.0% 46.79 0.029 64.29% -0.281 0.7091
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 19 26.32% 30.89 -2.115 100.0% 0.145 0.244
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.67 6.433 66.67% 0.045 0.326
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 75.0% 60.0 13.314 75.0% 0.483 1.5935
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 30.0% 59.3 60.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 25 40.0% 26.24 32.0% -0.472
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 26.67% 44.67 46.67% -0.604 -0.8593 -0.198
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% -0.661
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 110 5.45% 36.03 62.73% -0.084 -0.8552 -0.16
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.259 0.6753
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 41 43.9% 27.34 78.05% 0.407 0.4929 -0.015
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 15.6 40.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 45.44 62.5% 0.074
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 29.64 50.0% 0.064 -0.0549 0.193
All Things Weaken 15 44.4 86.67% 0.154 0.4612 0.924
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0%
Back Against the Wall 11 49.36 90.91% 0.72
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 26.8 80.0% 0.203
Downward Spiral 11 24.82 63.64% -0.098
Erosion of Will 14 29.43 42.86% -0.574 -0.3597 -0.768
Intensifying Exploitation 4 13.5 75.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 50.0 87.5% -0.327 -0.9084 0.246
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% -0.127
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 28.83 33.33% -0.259 -0.0982 0.125
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.316
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 31.9 80.0% -0.272
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.198
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 41.43 85.71% -0.093
Thriving Communities 12 30.58 58.33% -0.329 -0.0291 0.446
Thriving Crops 3 36.67 33.33% 0.127
Unnatural Proliferation 14 38.07 57.14% -0.176 -0.0065 0.2
Untended Land Crumbles 13 34.0 61.54% 0.483 0.7409 0.555

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 583 27.32% 31.14 70.15% -0.586 0.5563 -0.029
B 578 28.08% 30.56 68.34% 0.452 1.5075 -0.641
C 603 27.74% 30.37 68.66% 0.306 1.1937 0.238
D 576 28.7% 30.44 70.83% -0.655 0.3987 0.419
E 600 27.55% 31.13 70.83% 0.28 1.1843 0.227
F 553 28.8% 31.05 68.9% -0.215 0.7895 0.092
G 350 29.71% 29.47 68.86% -0.014 0.9545 -0.856
H 357 28.85% 30.69 75.07% 0.493 1.4859 0.491

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 4.35% 32.75 54.17% -0.171 -0.7936 -0.74
Start of Game Growth 73 29.17% 39.78 63.01% -0.007 -0.4194 0.055
Unlimited Undo 49 10.2% 40.2 61.22% -0.534 -0.6291 0.017
Using Tokens but Not Events 49 4.17% 28.1 89.8% 0.104 0.1792 -0.13

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 155 16.77 2.58%
II 237 30.59 82.28%
III 245 34.74 93.88%
IV 69 38.3 97.1%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 224
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 192
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 67
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 89
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)