Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 35.8 -3.361 100.0% 0.04 0.5481
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 57.0 2.806 66.67% -0.31 0.8679
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 37.5% 30.88 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 24.0 -1.953 0.0% -0.184 1.7518
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 46.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 31.7 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10 40.0% 40.8 0.208 100.0% 0.144 0.3335
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 12.5% 48.44 3.103 93.75% -0.007 0.3599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 71.43% 62.29 5.395 100.0% 0.057 0.4158
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 5.839 100.0% 0.075 1.2414
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 62.5% 54.13 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 28.57% 31.29 -0.922 100.0% 0.049 0.6064
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 35.0 3.598 66.67% 0.071 1.2251
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 44.44% 54.56 3.314 66.67% 0.354 2.0306
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 54.55% 37.18 45.45%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 17 47.06% 58.71 6.23 64.71% 0.045 2.6085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 56.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 25.0% 47.13 3.178 50.0% -0.172 1.9581
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 25.0% 51.13 -6.993 62.5% -0.8 1.5454
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 47.43 -1.183 57.14% -0.377 1.6884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 32 46.88% 43.59 4.625 31.25% -0.585 1.5897
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 28.5 -0.982 100.0% 0.058 -0.0358
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 100.0% 57.0 6.503 100.0% 0.3 1.1594
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 36.5 -8.268 50.0% -0.545 0.673
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 21.0 -2.4 0.0% -0.507 0.7308
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 50.0% 64.5 7.858 83.33% 0.269 1.8265
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 20.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 38.0 1.822 100.0% 0.057 0.3369
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 -5.524 33.33% -0.493 0.5476
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 71.43% 58.57 -0.957 85.71% -0.218 0.9406
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.0 0.46 50.0% -0.125 0.3119
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 33.33% 20.67 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 60.0% 77.0 -0.89 80.0% -0.314 1.6562

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 34.0 21.43% -0.811
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 58.0 50.0% 0.354
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 47.67 33.33% -0.702 -0.1562 -0.71
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 69 7.25% 36.7 65.22% -0.653 -0.421 -0.238
Second Wave 0 22 50.0% 31.73 86.36% -0.178 0.5142 0.002
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.076 0.8626
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 45.73 63.64% 0.003 1.9735 -0.113
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 47.4 60.0% 0.129
All Things Weaken 12 46.83 91.67% 0.04 2.0889 0.376
Back Against the Wall 8 54.5 87.5% 0.443 2.3824 0.5
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.103
Downward Spiral 5 16.8 60.0% -0.299 1.6618
Erosion of Will 7 37.71 57.14% 0.3 2.382 -0.515
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 54.83 100.0% 0.071
Memory Fades to Dust 7 34.43 57.14% -0.561 1.5798 -0.07
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 37.71 28.57% 0.079 2.0595 -0.152
Promising Farmlands 7 45.29 57.14% 0.076 2.0979 -0.289
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 43.75 75.0% -0.099
Thriving Communities 4 45.75 100.0% 0.375
Unnatural Proliferation 5 48.0 80.0% 0.692
Untended Land Crumbles 7 30.29 42.86% -0.633 1.3999 -0.277

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 286 28.07% 36.68 78.67% 0.495 1.2308 0.253
B 266 28.3% 35.4 73.68% -0.67 0.0275 -0.664
C 283 28.37% 36.53 76.68% 0.566 1.0353 0.204
D 275 29.93% 36.18 77.09% 0.124 0.8331 0.536
E 282 29.89% 36.39 77.3% -0.373 0.171 0.131
F 242 28.63% 37.76 75.21% 0.148 0.8094 0.41
G 170 33.53% 33.79 72.35% -0.162 0.4689 -1.091
H 169 29.59% 35.6 78.11% -0.074 0.5904 0.145

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8 14.29% 39.5 87.5% 0.003 -0.9774 -0.15
Start of Game Growth 40 38.46% 45.85 77.5% -0.182 -0.6384 -0.017
Unlimited Undo 11 9.09% 49.64 90.91% 0.147 -0.4048 -0.15
Using Tokens but Not Events 18 5.88% 34.78 94.44% -0.136 0.0195 -0.15

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 58 22.65 3.45%
II 115 31.08 84.35%
III 122 34.66 96.72%
IV 39 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 117
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 96
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 39
Lose: Adversary condition 39
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)