Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 35.8 -3.436 100.0% 0.041 0.5544
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 57.0 4.369 66.67% -0.142 0.8348
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 37.5% 30.88 4.543 25.0% 0.066 1.7868
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 46.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 6 0.0% 28.5 -1.208 100.0% 0.098 0.2737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 31.7 0.996 90.0% 0.141 -0.1339
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 44.44% 41.11 3.359 100.0% 0.372 0.621
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14 14.29% 50.36 4.798 100.0% 0.055 0.5227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 71.43% 62.29 6.637 100.0% 0.112 0.6034
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 7.347 100.0% 0.131 1.4518
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 62.5% 54.13 8.13 75.0% 0.069 1.5639
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 33.33% 32.17 -3.056 100.0% 0.023 0.5165
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 35.0 -0.766 66.67% -0.347 0.7888
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 50.0% 55.38 -0.47 62.5% 0.195 1.883
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 54.55% 37.18 45.45%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15 53.33% 56.93 4.044 60.0% -0.279 2.2581
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 34.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 56.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 28.57% 49.71 5.775 57.14% 0.231 2.5167
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 54.86 -7.009 71.43% -0.423 1.9655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 47.43 -2.776 57.14% -0.421 1.4969
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 30 43.33% 44.1 3.363 33.33% -0.696 1.459
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 37.0 0.018 100.0% 0.08 1.0853
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 36.5 -8.099 50.0% -0.557 0.7909
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 40.0% 63.6 7.441 80.0% -0.088 1.386
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 20.5 -9.877 50.0% -0.393 -0.1926
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 33.33% 20.67 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 50.0% 86.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 34.0 21.43% -0.899
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 58.0 50.0% -0.506 -0.2042 0.352
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 47.67 33.33% -0.683 -0.0715 -0.656
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 64 7.81% 36.47 67.19% -0.121 0.0732 -0.219
Second Wave 0 20 50.0% 34.05 90.0% 0.309 0.8815 -0.016
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.099 0.8444
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 46.3 70.0% 0.208 2.1172 0.018
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 47.4 60.0% 0.134
All Things Weaken 12 46.83 91.67% 0.11 2.1094 0.366
Back Against the Wall 8 54.5 87.5% 0.499 2.4468 0.472
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.145
Downward Spiral 4 20.5 75.0%
Erosion of Will 6 34.5 50.0% -0.534
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 54.83 100.0% 0.072
Memory Fades to Dust 6 36.17 66.67% -0.421 1.6367 -0.075
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 37.71 28.57% 0.222 2.2005 -0.167
Promising Farmlands 6 41.33 50.0% 0.029 2.1315 -0.36
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 43.75 75.0% 0.17 0.4997 -0.112
Thriving Communities 4 45.75 100.0% 0.192 2.242 0.408
Unnatural Proliferation 5 48.0 80.0% 0.687
Untended Land Crumbles 3 39.67 66.67%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 252 28.29% 37.32 79.37% 0.221 0.9803 0.313
B 235 28.63% 36.48 74.89% -0.452 0.2249 -0.473
C 255 29.13% 37.09 76.86% 0.554 1.0789 0.216
D 246 29.8% 36.52 78.05% -0.105 0.6217 0.581
E 254 30.04% 36.89 79.13% -0.204 0.3558 0.124
F 214 29.58% 38.3 75.7% -0.434 0.2553 0.159
G 154 33.77% 34.01 73.38% 0.234 0.9294 -0.939
H 146 32.19% 36.24 78.08% 0.226 0.887 -0.052

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6 20.0% 35.5 83.33% -0.142 -0.5113 -0.102
Start of Game Growth 36 40.0% 45.75 77.78% -0.142 -0.765 0.056
Unlimited Undo 8 12.5% 50.63 87.5% -0.017 -0.6481 -0.102
Using Tokens but Not Events 17 6.25% 32.41 94.12% -0.08 -0.036 -0.102

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 51 22.62 3.92%
II 101 31.05 85.15%
III 112 34.62 97.32%
IV 34 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 108
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 85
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 34
Lose: Adversary condition 36
Lose: Scenario condition 18
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)