Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 38.25 2.523 100.0% 0.092 0.6436
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 27.57 14.29%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 46.75 12.156 50.0% 0.06 2.3206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 28.0 -0.77 100.0% 0.219 0.463
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9 33.33% 31.11 0.423 88.89% -0.04 -0.1668
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 75.0% 39.5 2.764 100.0% 0.053 0.1692
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13 15.38% 50.38 4.339 100.0% 0.033 0.4075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 83.33% 64.17 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 57.14% 52.71 5.692 71.43% -0.119 1.4558
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 40.0% 33.2 0.111 100.0% 0.048 0.5642
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 41.0 5.173 100.0% 0.041 1.1683
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7 42.86% 56.43 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 54.55% 37.18 -3.84 45.45% -0.586 0.9926
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 9.34 100.0% 0.033 1.7701
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 72.73% 56.09 -1.01 63.64% -0.491 1.8076
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 32.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 56.5 -4.057 50.0% -0.513 1.8892
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 40.0% 46.2 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 33.33% 60.33 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 50.0% 51.17 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 23 43.48% 41.17 1.406 26.09% -0.356 2.011
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 100.0% 30.0 0.111 100.0% 0.048 -0.076
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 48.0 10.165 100.0% 0.125 1.3602
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 18.257 100.0% 0.107 1.8053
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 20.5 -6.166 50.0% -0.425 -0.2586
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 2.711 100.0% 0.364 0.3074
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 33.33% 20.67 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 50.0% 86.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 34.0 21.43% 0.027 0.2848 -0.93
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 88.0 100.0% 0.297
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 58 6.9% 35.03 65.52% -0.332 -0.0261 -0.296
Second Wave 0 17 52.94% 34.47 88.24% 0.08 0.6458 -0.092
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.022 0.5478
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.028 1.1897

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 43.67 66.67% 0.017 1.9198 -0.276
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 47.4 60.0% -0.435 1.2952 0.138
All Things Weaken 10 47.2 90.0% -0.507 1.4781 0.253
Back Against the Wall 6 52.67 83.33% 0.244 2.061 0.248
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.222
Downward Spiral 4 20.5 75.0%
Erosion of Will 6 34.5 50.0% -0.541
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 52.8 100.0% 0.033 0.4742 0.085
Memory Fades to Dust 5 38.4 80.0% 0.17 2.2539 -0.109
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6 32.17 16.67% -0.336 1.6019 -0.237
Promising Farmlands 5 36.8 40.0% -0.476 1.57 -0.467
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 48.5 50.0% -0.107
Thriving Communities 2 53.0 100.0% 0.036 2.0201 0.363
Unnatural Proliferation 5 48.0 80.0% 0.658
Untended Land Crumbles 3 39.67 66.67% -0.306 1.6868

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 205 29.41% 36.81 78.05% 0.788 1.5855 0.013
B 191 29.47% 35.3 73.82% -0.063 0.6805 -0.476
C 210 30.14% 36.03 75.24% 0.015 0.5836 -0.065
D 200 31.16% 35.66 77.0% -0.475 0.3206 0.671
E 205 31.86% 35.96 78.54% -0.42 0.2271 0.136
F 177 30.68% 37.49 75.14% 0.182 0.9059 0.509
G 138 34.06% 33.84 71.74% -0.065 0.667 -0.942
H 119 32.77% 35.08 76.47% 0.077 0.7897 0.099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0% 0.035 2.1639
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 33.33% 21.5 100.0% 0.106 -0.0361
Start of Game Growth 34 42.42% 44.71 79.41% 0.227 -0.5339 0.16
Unlimited Undo 5 20.0% 48.0 100.0% 0.033 -0.5713
Using Tokens but Not Events 14 7.69% 29.0 100.0% 0.169 0.0129

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43 22.56 2.33%
II 90 30.98 85.56%
III 91 34.53 96.7%
IV 22 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 87
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 76
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Lose: Scenario condition 17
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)