Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 35.8 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 5.527 100.0% 0.115 0.4579
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 50.0% 54.75 6.154 75.0% 0.1 1.0813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 37.5% 30.88 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 4.012 50.0% -0.145 1.5563
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 80.0% 42.2 1.815 40.0% -0.209 2.0809
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8 0.0% 32.38 -0.012 100.0% 0.095 -0.0229
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 27.27% 32.36 2.77 90.91% 0.096 -0.0569
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 50.0% 41.43 2.944 100.0% 0.241 0.3502
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 17.65% 47.06 2.618 88.24% -0.442 -0.0422
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 71.43% 62.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 62.5% 54.13 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 8 25.0% 30.5 0.944 100.0% 0.047 0.4081
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 25.0% 32.5 -5.876 50.0% -0.593 0.4408
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 44.44% 54.56 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 54.55% 37.18 45.45%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 44.44% 59.72 10.183 66.67% 0.082 2.3926
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 33.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 56.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 25.0% 47.13 -1.366 50.0% -0.388 1.7439
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 25.0% 51.13 62.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 50.0% 44.88 -2.136 50.0% -0.424 1.3276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 32 46.88% 43.59 1.399 31.25% -0.415 1.7046
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 28.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 100.0% 57.0 7.222 100.0% 0.3 0.9847
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 36.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 21.0 -2.89 0.0% -0.315 0.9589
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 50.0% 64.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 20.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 1.967 100.0% 0.046 0.0829
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 71.43% 58.57 -0.234 85.71% -0.199 0.8674
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.0 3.01 50.0% -0.088 0.2101
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 50.0% 28.25 9.66 25.0% 0.118 1.3626
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 60.0% 77.0 2.956 80.0% -0.216 1.763

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 15 20.0% 32.87 26.67% 0.182 0.6389 -0.812
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 58.0 50.0% 0.345
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% 0.158 0.857 -0.691
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 72 6.94% 37.17 66.67% 0.252 0.2928 -0.252
Second Wave 0 22 50.0% 31.73 86.36% -0.271 0.1909 0.009
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0% 0.096 0.84

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13 44.31 61.54% -0.709 1.0215 -0.099
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 47.4 60.0% 0.135
All Things Weaken 12 46.83 91.67% 0.379
Back Against the Wall 8 54.5 87.5% 0.505
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.102
Downward Spiral 6 18.0 50.0% -0.546 1.1523 -0.135
Erosion of Will 7 37.71 57.14% 0.3 2.1997 -0.508
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 54.83 100.0% 0.072
Memory Fades to Dust 8 36.5 62.5% -0.154 1.7223 -0.074
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 37.71 28.57% -0.133
Promising Farmlands 7 45.29 57.14% -0.276
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 43.75 75.0% -0.093
Thriving Communities 7 44.86 100.0% 0.153 2.0239 0.38
Unnatural Proliferation 5 48.0 80.0% 0.689
Untended Land Crumbles 7 30.29 42.86% -0.514 1.3004 -0.263

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 304 28.38% 36.57 79.28% -0.033 0.7444 0.227
B 283 28.37% 35.28 74.2% -0.58 0.1233 -0.678
C 304 28.71% 36.12 77.3% 0.164 0.6916 0.188
D 297 30.07% 35.94 77.78% -0.211 0.5243 0.499
E 304 30.03% 36.21 77.96% -0.119 0.4652 0.124
F 261 28.08% 37.41 76.25% 0.406 1.1132 0.475
G 184 32.61% 33.68 73.37% -0.388 0.2539 -1.113
H 179 29.61% 35.38 79.33% 0.805 1.4506 0.203

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 11.11% 42.1 90.0% 0.24 -0.8194 -0.158
Start of Game Growth 45 36.36% 45.87 77.78% -0.233 -0.6552 -0.029
Unlimited Undo 13 7.69% 50.08 92.31% 0.24 -0.1757 -0.158
Using Tokens but Not Events 22 9.52% 35.55 95.45% 0.174 0.2897 -0.158

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 60 22.63 3.33%
II 122 31.12 85.25%
III 135 34.7 96.3%
IV 41 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 128
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 41
Lose: Adversary condition 41
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)