Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 18.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 28 35.71% 24.18 32.14% -0.924
Dahan Insurrection 4 28 21.43% 45.82 60.71% -0.271 -0.5244 0.003
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 5 40.0% 38.8 40.0% -0.844
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 155 5.16% 33.71 60.0% -0.415 -0.977 -0.142
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0% 0.331 1.0902
Rituals of Terror 3 8 50.0% 9.88 0.0% -1.25
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
Second Wave 0 57 45.61% 26.18 75.44% 0.311 0.4493 0.099
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 10 10.0% 14.8 30.0% -0.339

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 21 41.9 61.9% 0.351 0.6022 0.264
Aid From Lesser Spirits 20 32.2 55.0% -0.166 -0.2237 0.223
All Things Weaken 26 37.96 84.62% 0.26 0.5942 1.219
Attenuated Essence 8 29.13 50.0% 0.153 0.1866 -0.015
Back Against the Wall 17 47.0 94.12% 0.452 0.4865 1.161
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 24.0 50.0% -0.287 -0.0699 -0.319
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 33.43 71.43% 0.111 0.122 0.496
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 24.25 50.0% -0.401 -0.0567 0.29
Downward Spiral 12 22.75 58.33% -0.121
Erosion of Will 18 29.83 44.44% -0.472 -0.1981 -0.778
Intensifying Exploitation 9 23.11 77.78%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 45.09 90.91% 0.318 -0.2545 0.36
Memory Fades to Dust 17 34.94 58.82% -0.319 -0.0669 -0.253
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 32.53 47.37% 0.153 0.3578 0.087
Promising Farmlands 13 33.85 46.15% -0.349 -0.0945 -0.121
Shattered Fragments of Power 12 39.0 83.33% -0.14
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 41.67 66.67% 0.14 0.5208 0.188
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 36.89 77.78% -0.196
The Border of Life and Death 1 58.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 17 29.18 47.06% -0.743 -0.4613 0.049
Thriving Crops 4 27.5 25.0% 0.307
Unnatural Proliferation 19 35.42 47.37% 0.596 0.7994 0.467
Untended Land Crumbles 14 32.64 64.29% 0.577

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 878 26.11% 29.44 66.97% 0.167 1.1645 0.367
B 897 26.12% 28.7 63.99% -0.571 0.3508 -0.245
C 933 25.75% 28.42 65.06% 0.721 1.4502 -0.261
D 930 25.83% 27.94 65.38% -0.462 0.4974 -0.031
E 962 25.18% 28.44 65.59% 0.373 1.1917 0.186
F 899 26.5% 28.12 63.96% -0.532 0.3499 0.059
G 612 25.65% 27.11 63.56% 0.201 1.0259 -0.54
H 605 25.12% 27.01 67.11% 0.17 1.0093 0.402

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 40 7.69% 30.25 50.0% -0.217 -0.8195 -1.079
Start of Game Growth 127 26.98% 32.81 52.76% 0.043 -0.4613 0.301
Unlimited Undo 77 10.39% 35.65 57.14% 0.575 0.4682 0.728
Using Tokens but Not Events 97 10.42% 25.06 71.13% 0.012 -0.0176 -0.053

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 292 13.42 1.37%
II 354 30.13 78.81%
III 379 34.83 93.67%
IV 102 38.67 97.06%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 345
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 269
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 99
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 238
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 69
Lose: Scenario condition 35
Win: Scenario condition 20
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)