Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 42.86% 29.43 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 75.0% 36.25 8.611 75.0% 0.222 1.1722
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 33.33% 27.44 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 66.67% 41.78 -0.055 44.44% -0.195 1.8424
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 26 3.85% 27.23 3.143 92.31% 0.401 0.6389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 27.38 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 26 30.77% 42.73 8.525 96.15% 0.543 0.6838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 35 34.29% 35.17 -2.398 60.0% -0.473 -0.2859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 53.85% 48.92 5.37 84.62% 0.127 0.4815
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 28.5 -5.251 50.0% -0.097 0.371
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12 50.0% 47.42 -3.49 66.67% -0.108 1.2328
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 29.41% 24.53 82.35%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 36.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 41.67% 24.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 21 52.38% 39.71 2.671 42.86% -0.38 0.7457
The Kingdom of England 4 7 15 53.33% 39.33 10.196 46.67% 0.216 1.4462
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 0.0% 40.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 36 27.78% 48.17 52.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 26.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 15.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 45.4 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 35.71% 42.21 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 27.27% 55.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 40 37.5% 44.08 -2.306 35.0% -0.059 1.3761
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 21.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 29.8 3.77 80.0% 0.168 0.7302
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 33.33% 23.22 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 29.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 31.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 23 43.48% 60.83 4.164 78.26% -0.252 0.8125
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 0.0% 21.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 58.33% 24.92 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 27.08 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 18 38.89% 36.39 -4.985 50.0% -0.49 0.5653
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 19 26.32% 30.89 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 48.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 27.27% 53.91 -7.134 54.55% -0.226 1.5104

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 26 38.46% 25.23 30.77% -0.28 0.0084 -0.512
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 26.67% 44.67 46.67% -0.135
Elemental Invocation 1 5 40.0% 38.8 40.0% -0.195 0.7383 -0.711
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 112 5.36% 35.87 63.39% 0.199 -0.4477 -0.117
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 5 40.0% 15.8 0.0% -0.516 -0.4392 -0.999
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 42 45.24% 27.21 78.57% 0.231 0.2616 -0.016
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 16.0 60.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 15.6 40.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 45.44 62.5% 0.116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 28.73 53.33% 0.234
All Things Weaken 17 43.35 88.24% 0.504 0.7975 0.896
Attenuated Essence 3 22.67 33.33% -0.305 -0.2218
Back Against the Wall 11 49.36 90.91% 0.76
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 33.0 100.0% 0.168 0.3716
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 31.4 80.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 27.71 57.14% -0.311 0.098 0.039
Downward Spiral 11 24.82 63.64% -0.14
Erosion of Will 14 29.43 42.86% -0.721
Intensifying Exploitation 5 18.4 80.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 50.0 87.5% 0.233
Memory Fades to Dust 16 35.31 62.5% -0.161
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 29.92 38.46% 0.305 0.5225 0.178
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.193
Shattered Fragments of Power 10 31.9 80.0% -0.219
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 67.0 100.0% 0.188
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 41.43 85.71% -0.088
Thriving Communities 13 32.23 61.54% 0.438
Thriving Crops 3 36.67 33.33% 0.16
Unnatural Proliferation 15 38.33 53.33% -0.135 0.0048 0.068
Untended Land Crumbles 13 34.0 61.54% 0.574

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 622 27.54% 30.97 69.94% 0.483 1.3451 0.017
B 614 28.22% 30.42 68.08% 0.24 1.0564 -0.456
C 640 27.7% 30.24 68.44% 0.253 0.9324 0.224
D 613 28.43% 30.09 70.31% -0.24 0.565 0.395
E 636 27.24% 30.85 70.28% 0.145 0.8132 0.271
F 585 28.6% 30.58 68.55% -0.292 0.5063 0.045
G 375 29.87% 29.05 68.27% -0.08 0.7461 -0.953
H 383 28.46% 30.25 73.63% -0.465 0.3079 0.398

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 7.69% 31.85 51.85% -0.252 -0.8665 -0.767
Start of Game Growth 76 29.33% 39.18 61.84% -0.252 -0.8335 0.095
Unlimited Undo 52 11.54% 39.31 59.62% -0.252 -0.2082 0.11
Using Tokens but Not Events 50 6.12% 27.98 90.0% 0.231 0.1731 -0.154

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 169 15.74 2.37%
II 248 30.48 82.26%
III 261 34.79 93.87%
IV 73 38.41 97.26%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 239
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 201
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 71
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 101
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)