Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 35.8 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 70.0% 39.3 0.447 60.0% -0.233 0.5964
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 100.0% 39.0 3.995 66.67% -0.223 0.7685
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 37.5% 30.88 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 41.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 40.29 12.589 42.86% 0.141 2.1537
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 28.38 0.887 92.31% 0.432 0.5171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 27.27% 32.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16 50.0% 39.75 -5.861 93.75% -0.285 -0.2959
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 37.57 -5.431 65.22% -1.093 -0.8959
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 71.43% 62.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 60.0% 50.1 -5.285 70.0% -0.189 1.1494
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 30.0% 27.0 0.046 90.0% -0.194 0.0712
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 33.33% 35.67 5.78 66.67% 0.323 1.06
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 50.0% 49.1 -6.85 60.0% -0.189 0.9502
The Kingdom of England 4 7 12 50.0% 40.33 7.538 50.0% 0.095 1.1416
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 39.13% 54.61 2.382 60.87% -0.334 1.7075
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 33.0 8.971 100.0% 0.184 0.587
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 100.0% 12.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.33 9.414 66.67% 0.109 1.1827
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 20.0% 45.6 3.756 50.0% -0.109 1.1787
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 10 20.0% 55.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 33.92 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 35 42.86% 43.23 1.572 31.43% -0.398 0.9461
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 33.33% 19.0 -11.496 66.67% -0.722 -0.7058
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 39.5 8.27 100.0% 0.135 0.5766
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 66.67% 19.0 -6.058 33.33% -0.603 -0.2177
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 33.33% 49.33 7.538 66.67% 0.095 0.7141
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 21.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 36.36% 59.82 7.416 81.82% 0.096 1.3713
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 0.0% 24.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 75.0% 35.75 3.363 100.0% 0.245 0.4684
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 38.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 25.0% 29.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 0.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 62.5% 58.63 18.499 87.5% 0.341 1.2279
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 31.25% 31.88 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -8.847 0.0% -0.264 1.2319
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 37.5% 58.25 -1.529 62.5% -0.574 1.2665

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 23 39.13% 26.87 26.09% -0.621 -0.4243 -0.578
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 65.0 66.67% 0.131 -0.3116 0.377
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 42.75 50.0% -0.68
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 78 6.41% 37.35 66.67% 0.21 -0.4345 -0.297
Second Wave 0 27 44.44% 29.89 85.19% 0.081 0.1472 -0.033
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 47.33 66.67% 0.443 0.6851 0.124
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 32.0 50.0% -0.185 -0.2624 0.196
All Things Weaken 12 46.83 91.67% 0.437
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0%
Back Against the Wall 8 54.5 87.5% 0.513
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 31.33 66.67% 0.169 0.3791
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3 38.33 100.0% 0.1
Downward Spiral 7 15.43 42.86% -0.294 -0.0581 -0.098
Erosion of Will 10 33.3 50.0% -0.3 0.0093 -0.48
Intensifying Exploitation 4 13.5 75.0% 0.121 0.4086
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 54.83 100.0% 0.099
Memory Fades to Dust 13 33.08 53.85% -0.142
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 33.0 25.0% -0.171 0.0495 -0.051
Promising Farmlands 8 39.63 50.0% -0.189 0.264 -0.294
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 37.14 100.0% 0.596 0.6469
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 38.5 83.33% 0.158 -0.5524 -0.085
Thriving Communities 10 34.2 70.0% -0.212 0.1505 0.383
Thriving Crops 2 44.5 50.0% 0.202 0.0041 0.111
Unnatural Proliferation 9 40.67 66.67% 0.148 0.363 0.713
Untended Land Crumbles 8 28.63 50.0% 0.261 0.5431 -0.234

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 402 29.93% 33.63 74.88% 0.027 0.7676 0.198
B 395 31.22% 31.97 70.38% -0.805 -0.079 -0.656
C 410 30.56% 32.58 71.95% -1.444 -0.8618 0.138
D 400 31.33% 32.6 75.0% 1.099 1.81 0.635
E 414 31.23% 33.36 74.4% 0.437 1.0026 0.117
F 368 30.79% 33.65 72.28% 0.242 0.9118 0.612
G 245 31.84% 30.63 71.43% -0.135 0.5162 -1.245
H 253 30.04% 32.92 77.47% 0.656 1.2263 0.138

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 21.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 16.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.14% 39.53 73.33% -0.242 -0.8594 -0.459
Start of Game Growth 57 35.71% 41.33 68.42% -0.935 -1.2836 -0.145
Unlimited Undo 22 13.64% 53.23 90.91% 0.843 0.8368 0.084
Using Tokens but Not Events 30 6.9% 31.8 96.67% 0.652 0.6417 -0.13

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 94 20.4 2.13%
II 166 31.01 84.34%
III 173 34.76 94.22%
IV 53 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 160
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 139
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 53
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 32
Lose: Adversary condition 45
Lose: Scenario condition 22
Win: Scenario condition 4
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)