Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Snake (4 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
25	64.0%	33.2	68.0%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	7	28.57%	39.14	1.48	100.0%	0.709	0.855
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5	40.0%	24.0	-2.789	60.0%	-0.477	-0.2399
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2	50.0%	31.5	-0.055	50.0%	-0.144	-0.2296
Eyes Watch From the Trees	8	75.0%	28.63	-1.614	62.5%	0.038	-0.3268
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	100.0%	50.0	2.811	100.0%	0.059	-0.1855
Heart of the Wildfire	11	81.82%	28.55	-1.61	45.45%	-0.565	-0.2147
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	11	72.73%	29.36	-1.786	45.45%	-0.599	-0.8991
Lightning's Swift Strike	9	77.78%	31.44	-0.588	55.56%	-0.255	0.0133
Many Minds Move as One	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	-0.4357
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	5	20.0%	28.2	-1.551	100.0%	0.471	0.2767
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	3	66.67%	38.33	0.053	66.67%	-0.088	-0.0395
River Surges in Sunlight	4	25.0%	34.75	-0.686	100.0%	0.35	0.5123
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	6	66.67%	43.5	3.434	83.33%	0.276	0.4255
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	100.0%	49.5	2.146	100.0%	0.189	0.6385
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	3	66.67%	40.33	3.857	100.0%	0.366	0.2985
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	3	33.33%	44.0	3.171	100.0%	0.254	0.47
Thunderspeaker	12	66.67%	32.92	1.163	50.0%	-0.529	-0.4711
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	0.1044
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	83.33%	34.5	-0.133	66.67%	-0.209	0.6613

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	28.0	-1.243	100.0%	0.163	0.206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	3	33.33%	50.0	4.578	100.0%	0.291	0.5837
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	8	1	100.0%	20.0	-3.592	0.0%	-0.366	0.0048
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	100.0%	26.0	-0.281	0.0%	-0.318	0.9302
The Kingdom of England	3	6	4	75.0%	32.5	-1.103	50.0%	-0.453	1.1273
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	1.211
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	4	100.0%	30.0	0.377	25.0%	-0.423	1.728
The Kingdom of Sweden	4	6	2	50.0%	47.0	4.345	100.0%	0.245	1.0153

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.5046
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	54.0	5.932	100.0%	0.1	0.4654
Second Wave	0	1	100.0%	20.0	-3.592	0.0%	-0.366	0.0507

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	1	21.0	-5.305	0.0%	-0.281	1.7888
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	50.0	2.811	100.0%	0.059	1.9775
Back Against the Wall	2	25.0	-3.354	50.0%	-0.211	1.885
Downward Spiral	2	48.0	4.033	100.0%	0.349	2.3662
Erosion of Will	2	32.5	-0.35	50.0%	-0.271	1.9388
Memory Fades to Dust	3	29.67	0.899	66.67%	0.346	2.5606
Promising Farmlands	2	26.0	-0.281	0.0%	-0.318	1.8945
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	2	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	0.7581
Tipping Point	1	19.0	-5.623	0.0%	-0.329	1.8887

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	20	55.0%	35.15	1.491	75.0%	0.329	-0.761
B	23	65.22%	31.43	-4.562	65.22%	-0.195	-1.3804
C	14	57.14%	35.14	0.273	71.43%	0.092	-1.3231
D	23	65.22%	34.43	4.921	65.22%	-0.243	-1.4199
E	2	100.0%	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	-0.9543
F	3	66.67%	27.0	-0.028	100.0%	0.378	-0.8652
G	11	72.73%	32.55	-1.228	63.64%	-0.206	-1.4368
H	4	75.0%	28.75	-0.184	25.0%	-0.462	-1.7022

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Not Using Events or Tokens	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.3228
Start of Game Growth	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	-0.3696
Unlimited Undo	8	25.0%	31.75	-0.514	87.5%	0.205	-0.207
Using Tokens but Not Events	2	0.0%	28.0	-1.243	100.0%	0.163	0.1156

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	2	22.34	0.0%
II	9	30.75	33.33%
III	8	34.26	100.0%
IV	6	37.47	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	5
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	5
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	6
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.