Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 28.0 -1.402 100.0% 0.166 0.2072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 0.0% 62.0 6.182 100.0% 0.101 0.1146
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 50.0 4.916 100.0% 0.278 0.5618
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.889 0.0% -0.359 0.0005
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 26.0 -0.159 0.0% -0.325 0.9145
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 32.5 -0.55 50.0% -0.494 1.0862
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 28.0 0.169 100.0% 0.314 1.2168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 100.0% 30.0 0.563 25.0% -0.442 1.7187
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 50.0% 47.0 4.863 100.0% 0.225 1.0065

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 62.0 6.182 100.0% 0.101 0.5013
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 54.0 5.965 100.0% 0.098 0.4632
Second Wave 0 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.889 0.0% -0.359 0.0711

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1 21.0 -5.153 0.0% -0.286 1.7831
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 50.0 2.613 100.0% 0.059 1.9717
Back Against the Wall 2 25.0 -3.114 50.0% -0.221 1.8658
Downward Spiral 2 48.0 4.275 100.0% 0.333 2.3546
Erosion of Will 2 32.5 0.107 50.0% -0.27 1.9378
Memory Fades to Dust 3 29.67 0.967 66.67% 0.336 2.5511
Promising Farmlands 2 26.0 -0.159 0.0% -0.325 1.8834
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 28.0 0.169 100.0% 0.314 0.7259
Tipping Point 1 19.0 -4.769 0.0% -0.353 1.8718

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 21 52.38% 34.57 1.131 76.19% 0.367 -0.3212
B 23 65.22% 31.43 -1.772 65.22% -0.301 -1.0846
C 14 57.14% 35.14 0.551 71.43% 0.059 -0.9535
D 24 62.5% 33.96 4.904 66.67% -0.24 -1.017
E 2 100.0% 28.0 0.169 100.0% 0.314 -0.5799
F 4 50.0% 26.0 -1.37 100.0% 0.48 -0.3609
G 11 72.73% 32.55 -0.719 63.64% -0.269 -1.1012
H 5 60.0% 27.6 -0.89 40.0% -0.397 -1.2357

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 62.0 6.182 100.0% 0.101 0.3158
Start of Game Growth 1 100.0% 27.0 -0.786 100.0% 0.079 -0.3903
Unlimited Undo 8 25.0% 31.75 -0.357 87.5% 0.19 -0.233
Using Tokens but Not Events 2 0.0% 28.0 -1.402 100.0% 0.166 0.115

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2 22.37 0.0%
II 9 30.88 33.33%
III 9 34.39 100.0%
IV 6 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)