Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Snake (4 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
42	55.0%	30.93	61.9%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	10	20.0%	35.4	80.0%	-0.233	-0.3282
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6	50.0%	23.33	50.0%
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4	25.0%	21.5	50.0%
Eyes Watch From the Trees	10	70.0%	24.7	50.0%
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	100.0%	50.0	100.0%
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	2	100.0%	28.0	0.0%
Heart of the Wildfire	11	81.82%	28.55	45.45%
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	14	71.43%	29.21	50.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike	11	70.0%	26.82	45.45%	-0.003	0.2344
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	2	100.0%	28.0	100.0%
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1	100.0%	20.0	0.0%
Many Minds Move as One	2	50.0%	25.0	100.0%
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	11	22.22%	28.82	72.73%	-0.21	-0.0699
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	4	50.0%	28.75	50.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	10	50.0%	25.0	70.0%	0.23	0.3554
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	4	25.0%	39.0	75.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	13	33.33%	38.62	76.92%	-0.21	-0.3365
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	6	80.0%	27.83	66.67%	0.206	0.7216
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	75.0%	41.0	100.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	2	0.0%	40.0	50.0%
Shroud of Silent Mist	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	1	100.0%	20.0	0.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	3	33.33%	44.0	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	14	57.14%	31.14	50.0%	-0.233	-0.2013
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	27.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	8	85.71%	32.75	62.5%	0.439	1.0393
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	5	0.0%	43.6	80.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	100.0%	28.0	100.0%
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	41.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	28.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	3	0.0%	46.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	3	66.67%	43.33	4.661	100.0%	0.439	0.4413
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	4	25.0%	50.25		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	20.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	100.0%	38.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	100.0%	26.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of England	3	6	4	75.0%	32.5		50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	28.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	5	100.0%	28.0		20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	0.0%	29.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	3	6	1	100.0%	38.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	41.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	2	100.0%	30.5		50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	4	6	2	50.0%	47.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	62.0	100.0%
Despicable Theft	2	3	0.0%	46.0	100.0%
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%
Ward the Shores	2	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	2	29.5	0.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	50.0	100.0%
Back Against the Wall	3	31.0	66.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	18.0	0.0%
Downward Spiral	2	48.0	100.0%
Erosion of Will	2	32.5	50.0%
Memory Fades to Dust	3	29.67	66.67%
Promising Farmlands	4	30.0	50.0%	0.439	0.6935
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	2	28.0	100.0%
Tipping Point	1	19.0	0.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	20.0	0.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	34	50.0%	31.82	67.65%	-0.003	0.9944
B	34	59.38%	29.18	61.76%	-0.003	0.9187
C	25	60.87%	29.2	56.0%	-0.003	0.7254
D	34	62.5%	29.21	55.88%	-0.003	0.9556
E	8	62.5%	31.63	50.0%
F	10	30.0%	35.0	80.0%
G	17	47.06%	36.29	70.59%
H	6	50.0%	29.83	50.0%

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	2	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.21	0.5194
Not Using Events or Tokens	4	0.0%	15.5	25.0%	-0.443	-0.0971
Skip Initial Invader Actions	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%
Start of Game Growth	2	100.0%	32.5	50.0%
Unlimited Undo	10	30.0%	29.2	70.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events	4	0.0%	34.0	75.0%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	6	13.42	0.0%
II	16	30.13	43.75%
III	11	34.83	90.91%
IV	9	38.67	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	6
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	9
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	4
Lose: Adversary condition	3
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	8
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.