Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Snake (4 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
25	64.0%	33.2	68.0%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	7	28.57%	39.14	1.48	100.0%	0.709	0.8448
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5	40.0%	24.0	-2.789	60.0%	-0.477	-0.2455
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2	50.0%	31.5	-0.055	50.0%	-0.144	-0.2306
Eyes Watch From the Trees	8	75.0%	28.63	-1.614	62.5%	0.038	-0.3318
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	100.0%	50.0	2.811	100.0%	0.059	-0.1963
Heart of the Wildfire	11	81.82%	28.55	-1.61	45.45%	-0.565	-0.2159
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	11	72.73%	29.36	-1.786	45.45%	-0.599	-0.9012
Lightning's Swift Strike	9	77.78%	31.44	-0.588	55.56%	-0.255	0.0062
Many Minds Move as One	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	-0.4423
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	5	20.0%	28.2	-1.551	100.0%	0.471	0.275
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	3	66.67%	38.33	0.053	66.67%	-0.088	-0.0441
River Surges in Sunlight	4	25.0%	34.75	-0.686	100.0%	0.35	0.503
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	6	66.67%	43.5	3.434	83.33%	0.276	0.4199
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	100.0%	49.5	2.146	100.0%	0.189	0.631
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	3	66.67%	40.33	3.857	100.0%	0.366	0.2938
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	3	33.33%	44.0	3.171	100.0%	0.254	0.4629
Thunderspeaker	12	66.67%	32.92	1.163	50.0%	-0.529	-0.4748
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	0.0982
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	83.33%	34.5	-0.133	66.67%	-0.209	0.6589

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	28.0	-1.243	100.0%	0.163	0.2011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.1086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	3	33.33%	50.0	4.578	100.0%	0.291	0.5821
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	20.0	-3.592	0.0%	-0.366	-0.0044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	100.0%	26.0	-0.281	0.0%	-0.318	0.9266
The Kingdom of England	3	6	4	75.0%	32.5	-1.103	50.0%	-0.453	1.1261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	1.2159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	4	100.0%	30.0	0.377	25.0%	-0.423	1.7194
The Kingdom of Sweden	4	6	2	50.0%	47.0	4.345	100.0%	0.245	1.0122

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.5074
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	54.0	5.932	100.0%	0.1	0.4641
Second Wave	0	1	100.0%	20.0	-3.592	0.0%	-0.366	0.0584

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	1	21.0	-5.305	0.0%	-0.281	1.7893
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	50.0	2.811	100.0%	0.059	1.981
Back Against the Wall	2	25.0	-3.354	50.0%	-0.211	1.8852
Downward Spiral	2	48.0	4.033	100.0%	0.349	2.368
Erosion of Will	2	32.5	-0.35	50.0%	-0.271	1.9396
Memory Fades to Dust	3	29.67	0.899	66.67%	0.346	2.5609
Promising Farmlands	2	26.0	-0.281	0.0%	-0.318	1.8953
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	2	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	0.7529
Tipping Point	1	19.0	-5.623	0.0%	-0.329	1.8918

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	20	55.0%	35.15	1.491	75.0%	0.329	-0.7729
B	23	65.22%	31.43	-4.562	65.22%	-0.195	-1.3912
C	14	57.14%	35.14	0.273	71.43%	0.092	-1.3368
D	23	65.22%	34.43	4.921	65.22%	-0.243	-1.4337
E	2	100.0%	28.0	-0.027	100.0%	0.323	-0.9764
F	3	66.67%	27.0	-0.028	100.0%	0.378	-0.8764
G	11	72.73%	32.55	-1.228	63.64%	-0.206	-1.4486
H	4	75.0%	28.75	-0.184	25.0%	-0.462	-1.7194

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Not Using Events or Tokens	1	0.0%	62.0	5.823	100.0%	0.104	0.3245
Start of Game Growth	1	100.0%	27.0	-1.173	100.0%	0.085	-0.3671
Unlimited Undo	8	25.0%	31.75	-0.514	87.5%	0.205	-0.2116
Using Tokens but Not Events	2	0.0%	28.0	-1.243	100.0%	0.163	0.1121

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	2	22.33	0.0%
II	9	30.75	33.33%
III	8	34.25	100.0%
IV	6	37.47	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	5
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	5
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	6
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.