Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Snake (4 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
37	55.56%	33.27	64.86%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	9	22.22%	39.33	88.89%
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6	50.0%	23.33	50.0%
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%	0.156	-0.4118
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	3	33.33%	28.67	66.67%
Eyes Watch From the Trees	9	77.78%	27.44	55.56%
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	100.0%	50.0	100.0%
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%	0.156	0.8128
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	2	100.0%	28.0	0.0%	-0.154	-0.271
Heart of the Wildfire	11	81.82%	28.55	45.45%
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	14	71.43%	29.21	50.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike	7	71.43%	32.43	42.86%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	2	100.0%	28.0	100.0%
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1	100.0%	20.0	0.0%
Many Minds Move as One	2	50.0%	25.0	100.0%
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	10	22.22%	31.7	80.0%	-0.154	-0.2576
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	3	66.67%	38.33	66.67%
River Surges in Sunlight	6	40.0%	30.33	83.33%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	4	25.0%	39.0	75.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	12	33.33%	41.83	83.33%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	3	100.0%	33.0	66.67%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	75.0%	41.0	100.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	2	0.0%	40.0	50.0%
Shroud of Silent Mist	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%	-0.154	0.1824
Starlight Seeks its Form	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%	0.156	0.1005
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	1	100.0%	20.0	0.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	3	33.33%	44.0	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	13	61.54%	33.54	53.85%	0.156	0.1018
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	27.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	80.0%	32.33	50.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	5	0.0%	43.6	80.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	100.0%	28.0	100.0%
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%	-0.154	-0.4059

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	41.0	0.13	100.0%	0.156	0.522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	28.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	3	0.0%	46.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	0.0%	62.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	4	25.0%	50.25		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	20.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	100.0%	38.0	-0.13	0.0%	-0.154	0.3823
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	100.0%	26.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of England	3	6	4	75.0%	32.5		50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	28.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	5	100.0%	28.0		20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	0.0%	29.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	3	6	1	100.0%	38.0	-0.13	0.0%	-0.154	0.2346
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	41.0	0.13	100.0%	0.156	0.2232
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	2	100.0%	30.5		50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	4	6	2	50.0%	47.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	62.0	100.0%
Despicable Theft	2	3	0.0%	46.0	100.0%
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1	0.0%	41.0	100.0%	0.156	1.0093
Ward the Shores	2	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%	-0.154	0.8279

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	2	29.5	0.0%	-0.154	-0.0499
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	50.0	100.0%
Back Against the Wall	3	31.0	66.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	18.0	0.0%
Downward Spiral	2	48.0	100.0%
Erosion of Will	2	32.5	50.0%
Memory Fades to Dust	3	29.67	66.67%
Promising Farmlands	2	26.0	0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	2	28.0	100.0%
Tipping Point	1	19.0	0.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	20.0	0.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	29	50.0%	34.97	72.41%	-0.154	0.7096
B	29	60.71%	31.86	65.52%
C	20	63.16%	33.1	60.0%	-0.154	0.5445
D	29	64.29%	31.9	58.62%
E	8	62.5%	31.63	50.0%	0.002	0.6905
F	10	30.0%	35.0	80.0%	0.002	0.8199
G	17	47.06%	36.29	70.59%	0.156	1.0361
H	6	50.0%	29.83	50.0%	0.156	0.9362

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens	2	0.0%	31.0	50.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	1	100.0%	38.0	0.0%	-0.154	-0.7209
Start of Game Growth	2	100.0%	32.5	50.0%	-0.154	-0.818
Unlimited Undo	9	33.33%	32.44	77.78%	-0.154	-0.1305
Using Tokens but Not Events	4	0.0%	34.0	75.0%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	15.45	0.0%
II	15	30.45	46.67%
III	11	34.8	90.91%
IV	7	38.47	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	6
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	7
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	1
Lose: Adversary condition	3
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	8
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.