Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 100.0% 36.0 7.392 100.0% 0.504 0.9739
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 25.33 3.131 66.67% 0.149 0.469
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 8.777 80.0% 0.302 1.0519
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 -6.591 0.0% -0.579 0.8854
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 36.0 -0.672 33.33% -0.335 1.7448
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 23 45.45% 25.74 2.244 86.96% 0.423 0.6554
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 47.48 10.018 91.3% 0.118 0.3589
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 16 18.75% 55.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 36.36% 33.08 4.96 83.33% 0.372 0.7055
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11 36.36% 35.55 -3.19 81.82% -0.126 0.6301
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 57.69% 40.62 61.54%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 57.14% 29.07 5.357 78.57% 0.155 0.8352
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 15 60.0% 49.87 -0.675 73.33% -0.477 0.9608
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 -3.878 42.86% -0.195 1.303
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 26.33 -0.675 33.33% -0.477 -0.0531
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 35.0% 29.65 4.621 75.0% 0.407 0.6176
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 40.0% 48.2 6.112 100.0% 0.131 0.4802
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 -0.991 57.14% -0.455 0.2521
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 25.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 -4.347 12.5% -1.401 -0.3575
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.448
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 77.43 100.0% -0.112
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.411
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% 0.504 0.5471 -0.054
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.491
Second Wave 0 34 52.94% 22.26 70.59% 0.012 0.0436
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.303

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 40.11 66.67% -0.078
Aid From Lesser Spirits 30 31.5 66.67% 0.05 -0.0114 0.182
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.089
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.318
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 27.5 42.86% -0.335 -0.009 -1.16
Downward Spiral 30 29.67 63.33% -0.219
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.448
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 17.5 100.0% 0.297 -0.2177 0.19
Memory Fades to Dust 33 31.09 60.61% -0.221
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 40.61 77.78% 0.131 0.4295 0.481
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.763
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67% -0.195 0.2142
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.138
Thriving Communities 14 34.86 92.86% 0.361
Thriving Crops 2 47.5 50.0% -0.486
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.169
Unnatural Proliferation 21 37.29 71.43% -0.477 -0.2981 -0.396
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.441

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 359 36.92% 35.01 79.11% -0.119 0.837 0.032
B 371 42.38% 35.96 80.32% -0.089 0.7871 -0.519
C 441 34.76% 31.37 75.51% 0.33 1.0714 0.108
D 373 36.26% 27.56 69.97% -0.404 0.4999 -0.049
E 214 30.81% 27.47 64.95% -0.589 0.1634 -0.027
F 257 42.86% 39.86 84.05% 0.545 1.382 0.707
G 191 41.88% 36.09 79.58% 0.004 0.8381 -0.27
H 221 36.36% 35.66 80.09% 0.338 1.1672 0.035

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 25.16 88.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 29.27% 25.19 85.71%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 13.33% 34.46 93.75% 0.539
Start of Game Growth 49 18.75% 37.73 95.92% 0.539
Unlimited Undo 82 32.81% 29.7 84.15% -0.045 -0.0142 0.008
Using Tokens but Not Events 54 29.41% 26.28 87.04% 0.123

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 114 16.27 16.67%
II 254 30.54 72.83%
III 311 34.77 92.28%
IV 129 38.37 99.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 282
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 127
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 59
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 74
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-11 05:37:38 (Pacific Time)