Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 80.0% 13.6 -1.494 0.0% -0.902 0.7764
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 31.67 -4.323 88.89% -0.402 -0.0207
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 16.67% 32.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 50.0% 41.67 -6.512 50.0% -0.318 1.6829
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 27 42.31% 26.37 85.19%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 32 37.5% 39.81 90.63%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 32 25.0% 37.56 71.88%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 38.5 -3.786 50.0% -0.236 0.1658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 18 22.22% 23.39 72.22%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 33.33% 30.54 76.92%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 19 63.16% 29.0 -2.457 57.89% -0.503 0.0709
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 3.773 52.94% 0.131 1.2341
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 15 60.0% 27.13 73.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 16 56.25% 46.75 68.75%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 44.58% 67.53 84.34%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 45.5 11.229 50.0% 0.185 1.2404
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 20.0% 25.2 0.631 90.0% 0.226 0.4794
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 28.83 2.359 100.0% 0.081 0.2027
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23 39.13% 29.91 2.104 78.26% 0.231 0.5011
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 37.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 25 68.0% 42.88 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 41.4 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 80.0 15.165 100.0% 0.062 1.6654

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 71.43% 22.0 42.86% -0.47
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 67.75 87.5% -0.111
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 12.73% 60.22 85.45% 0.117 -0.4656 1.277
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0% 0.131 0.9695
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.098
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0% -0.311 0.647 -0.526
Second Wave 0 38 47.37% 22.58 71.05% 0.287 0.5291
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45% -0.336

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 28 40.39 67.86% 0.131 0.1862 -0.075
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 30.94 66.67% 0.186
All Things Weaken 17 33.76 70.59% -0.093
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 27 36.15 70.37% 0.117 0.1399 -0.203
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0% 0.091 0.2571 0.401
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 14.5 50.0% 0.235
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -1.087
Downward Spiral 33 28.33 57.58% -0.23
Erosion of Will 20 28.4 55.0% 0.185 0.3025 -0.195
Intensifying Exploitation 1 21.0 0.0% -0.177 -0.0715 -0.166
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 17.0 100.0% 0.092 -0.5181 0.21
Memory Fades to Dust 37 31.41 62.16% -0.23
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 38.84 73.68% 0.479
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.611
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 13.0 75.0% 0.109 0.4154
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.144
Thriving Communities 16 31.88 81.25% -0.177 -0.0364 0.204
Thriving Crops 4 23.75 25.0% -0.318 -0.5903 -0.753
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.207
Unnatural Proliferation 27 36.44 66.67% -0.177 -0.0944 -0.353
Untended Land Crumbles 11 21.91 45.45% -0.739 -0.5785 0.516

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 404 37.21% 33.63 76.24% 0.576 1.5417 0.188
B 419 40.1% 35.05 79.0% 0.272 1.1553 -0.276
C 500 36.27% 30.25 73.2% -0.666 0.0207 -0.028
D 424 35.32% 26.98 69.34% 0.145 1.0304 -0.383
E 260 31.91% 26.48 65.0% 0.362 1.0804 0.039
F 291 43.71% 37.79 79.38% -0.544 0.2705 0.719
G 218 40.37% 34.56 77.52% 0.419 1.1818 -0.236
H 254 35.57% 34.22 77.17% -0.554 0.2233 -0.007

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 66 28.57% 25.05 86.36%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 51 12.12% 35.22 92.16% -0.402 -1.1873 0.612
Start of Game Growth 55 15.79% 37.4 94.55% -0.06 -0.4774 0.612
Unlimited Undo 91 32.88% 28.4 80.22% -0.72 -0.7725 -0.13
Using Tokens but Not Events 63 28.33% 26.33 85.71% 0.554 0.4991 0.476

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 146 13.81 13.01%
II 289 30.2 71.63%
III 345 34.83 92.75%
IV 142 38.63 99.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 315
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 197
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 140
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 86
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 52
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 85
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-10 23:34:23 (Pacific Time)