Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 75.0% 40.25 -1.306 75.0% -0.331 0.7883
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.43 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 17 56.25% 25.29 1.268 88.24% 0.147 0.391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 1.837 100.0% 0.172 0.0455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29 37.93% 42.1 2.205 96.55% 0.144 0.2602
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 2.619 90.0% 0.163 0.5372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 18.18% 50.27 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 15.38% 25.69 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 33.33% 32.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 68.75% 46.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 56.25% 35.13 -2.651 43.75% -0.682 0.8967
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 53.23 61.54%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 -0.055 93.33% 0.22 1.122
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 12 58.33% 27.83 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 4.255 77.78% 0.054 2.4565
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 40.0% 49.6 70.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 78 44.87% 66.9 84.62%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 18.0 -2.656 0.0% -0.432 0.8031
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 24.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 4.134 68.18% 0.073 1.2648
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 43.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 75.0% 35.0 50.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.432 -0.175 -0.433
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 63.33 100.0% -0.366
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.262
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% 0.21 0.3315 -0.068
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.385
Second Wave 0 23 60.87% 24.22 78.26% -0.088 0.4775
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.452

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 23 40.09 60.87% -0.614 1.2893 -0.28
Aid From Lesser Spirits 23 32.87 73.91% -0.432 1.2975 0.12
All Things Weaken 11 38.73 72.73% -0.331 1.6545 -0.12
Back Against the Wall 22 36.86 63.64% 0.099 1.9151 -0.456
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% 0.073 2.1234 -0.809
Downward Spiral 24 30.04 70.83% 0.225 2.2177 -0.366
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% 0.067 2.1498 -0.433
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.027 0.4678
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.87 56.67% -0.247
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.0 77.78% 0.259
Promising Farmlands 15 39.67 60.0% -0.079
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.152 0.5766 0.131
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.225
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.204
Unnatural Proliferation 15 33.47 73.33% 0.106 2.0702 -0.28
Untended Land Crumbles 6 27.67 66.67% 0.132

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 292 37.99% 37.96 82.88% -0.665 0.1322 -0.16
B 298 42.21% 38.26 83.22% 0.454 1.1972 -0.529
C 310 41.5% 36.17 85.48% 0.18 0.7484 0.142
D 242 43.61% 32.45 81.4% -0.256 0.5399 -0.3
E 105 40.2% 35.59 84.76% 0.006 0.6526 0.473
F 192 41.27% 42.77 84.9% -0.25 0.4738 0.848
G 147 40.14% 37.64 80.27% 0.281 1.0125 -0.249
H 167 33.13% 37.11 82.04% 0.259 0.9715 -0.208

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 27.85 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 54 30.56% 27.11 92.59% 0.21 0.3852
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43 14.29% 31.63 95.35%
Start of Game Growth 39 20.0% 35.62 97.44% 0.054 -0.7065
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% 0.054 -0.55 -0.049
Using Tokens but Not Events 44 30.95% 27.27 93.18% -0.385

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 51 22.56 37.25%
II 204 30.98 75.49%
III 245 34.53 93.47%
IV 85 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 224
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 148
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 84
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 32
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 56
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)