Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 28.0 0.751 100.0% 0.098 0.466
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 38.33 2.791 77.78% 0.293 1.0495
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 6.058 0.0% 0.099 1.4625
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 44.5 -0.008 50.0% -0.292 1.557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 21 50.0% 25.9 -3.516 85.71% -0.162 0.0345
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 23 21.74% 34.43 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 21 33.33% 47.05 10.108 90.48% 0.16 0.3611
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 13.33% 56.47 8.553 86.67% 0.183 0.3893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 44.44% 32.3 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 57.89% 42.63 63.16%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 4.556 50.0% -0.444 1.5046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 28.23 76.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 57.14% 51.29 6.406 78.57% 0.16 1.5443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 -0.802 75.0% 0.235 0.4436
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 24.5 6.113 50.0% 0.092 0.3577
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 25.0% 33.13 1.343 37.5% -0.27 0.5275
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 33.33% 29.47 3.645 66.67% 0.114 0.2358
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 25.0% 48.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 45.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 50.0% 12.0 -8.302 50.0% -0.259 -0.0928
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 0.751 100.0% 0.098 0.7176
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 38.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.46
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 77.43 100.0% -0.162
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% -0.221 -0.9593 1.4
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0% 0.199 0.9741
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.026
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.495
Second Wave 0 27 55.56% 23.37 74.07%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0% 0.211 1.0183
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.292

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 40.63 62.5% -0.196
Aid From Lesser Spirits 25 32.04 72.0% 0.108
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.259 0.106 -0.096
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0% 0.199 0.226
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.393
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0% 0.099 0.3022
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 30.5 50.0% 0.211 0.6195 -0.868
Downward Spiral 26 31.62 73.08% -0.212
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.46
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.17
Memory Fades to Dust 31 31.42 58.06% -0.237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 37.92 66.67% 0.078 0.2374 0.458
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.706 -0.3753 -0.821
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 16.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.137
Thriving Communities 12 32.5 91.67% 0.223 0.5025 0.308
Thriving Crops 2 47.5 50.0% -0.292 -0.3769 -0.488
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.178
Unnatural Proliferation 20 37.65 75.0% 0.16 0.321 -0.053
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.183 0.4904 0.367

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 334 37.5% 36.4 81.14% -0.258 0.71 -0.118
B 345 42.09% 36.67 81.45% 0.068 0.9493 -0.62
C 368 39.66% 34.8 83.15% -0.035 0.6705 0.168
D 292 41.76% 31.44 78.77% -0.054 0.8545 0.042
E 154 38.41% 33.86 78.57% -0.623 0.0945 -0.158
F 232 41.85% 40.74 84.91% 0.649 1.4919 0.765
G 171 42.11% 37.43 80.12% 0.396 1.2073 -0.189
H 195 34.54% 36.52 81.03% -0.131 0.6625 0.127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 26.21 91.67% 0.15 0.8123
Not Using Events or Tokens 60 28.95% 26.07 88.33% -0.012 0.4751
Skip Initial Invader Actions 47 13.33% 35.19 95.74% 0.333 -0.3174 0.457
Start of Game Growth 46 20.0% 39.41 97.83% 0.655 0.2295 0.457
Unlimited Undo 77 33.33% 30.75 85.71% -0.082 -0.0152 -0.087
Using Tokens but Not Events 52 30.0% 26.83 88.46% 0.085

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 69 17.93 27.54%
II 237 30.74 74.68%
III 278 34.75 92.81%
IV 112 38.19 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 253
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 167
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 111
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 12
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 41
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 66
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-26 03:35:03 (Pacific Time)