Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 60.0% 32.2 -3.48 60.0% -0.215 0.6144
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 -1.795 62.5% -0.236 0.7555
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 19 55.56% 27.16 89.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 13.33% 56.47 7.198 86.67% 0.053 0.2561
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 -1.258 81.25% -0.159 0.1064
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 28.57% 32.88 4.21 75.0% 0.261 0.4442
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 19 57.89% 42.63 1.247 63.16% -0.407 0.7327
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15 40.0% 50.8 -8.356 60.0% -0.363 1.6792
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 28.23 76.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 45.45% 49.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 3.89 84.15% -0.016 1.3277
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 20.0 0.538 0.0% -0.12 0.4983
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 -0.502 87.5% 0.241 0.421
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 25.0% 48.25 4.089 100.0% 0.251 0.6791
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 45.5 3.028 100.0% 0.146 0.755
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 38.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.476
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 85.6 100.0% 0.276 -0.1662 -0.151
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.319
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.017
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.465
Second Wave 0 27 55.56% 23.37 74.07%
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 13.0 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.414

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 40.63 62.5% -0.265
Aid From Lesser Spirits 25 32.04 72.0% 0.127
All Things Weaken 12 40.42 75.0% -0.114
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% 0.437 0.4947 -0.427
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% -0.777
Downward Spiral 26 31.62 73.08% -0.363
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.476
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.159
Memory Fades to Dust 31 31.42 58.06% 0.146 0.4829 -0.238
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 37.92 66.67% -0.527 -0.3062 0.274
Promising Farmlands 16 38.19 56.25% -0.236 0.2174 -0.105
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.132
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.24
Thriving Crops 1 70.0 100.0%
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.166
Unnatural Proliferation 17 34.24 70.59% -0.107
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.142

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 307 37.88% 37.42 81.76% -0.276 0.4646 -0.234
B 314 41.78% 37.89 82.17% -0.402 0.3234 -0.751
C 330 40.38% 36.08 84.24% 0.073 0.6556 0.293
D 263 42.28% 31.87 79.09% 0.033 0.7447 -0.028
E 131 40.63% 35.09 80.92% -0.167 0.3981 0.288
F 211 41.35% 42.22 84.83% 0.839 1.5095 0.875
G 159 40.88% 37.0 79.25% -0.144 0.5079 -0.23
H 183 36.26% 36.44 81.97% 0.031 0.6014 -0.197

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 26.05 90.91%
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 30.56% 26.43 89.29%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 45 13.33% 35.51 95.56% 0.276 -0.3414 0.212
Start of Game Growth 43 20.69% 40.21 97.67% 0.423 0.0741 0.212
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% -0.097
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 28.26% 27.44 91.67% -0.121

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 57 20.4 33.33%
II 221 31.01 74.66%
III 263 34.76 92.4%
IV 92 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 238
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 157
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 91
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 37
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 62
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)