Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 0.0% 52.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 50.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 80.0% 13.6 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 15 53.33% 34.0 93.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 14.29% 33.14 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 14 42.86% 33.64 5.918 64.29% 0.122 0.658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 60.0% 29.2 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 100.0% 23.5 -0.457 0.0% -0.472 1.0548
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 30 44.83% 25.63 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 30 20.0% 33.3 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 34 35.29% 40.62 91.18%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 37 24.32% 35.24 67.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 18 16.67% 55.56 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 50.0% 34.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 26 23.08% 22.77 73.08%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16 26.67% 33.06 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 27 59.26% 29.67 59.26%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 52.94%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21 61.9% 40.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 52.17% 43.39 47.83%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 17 11.76% 29.65 88.24%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 64.71% 26.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 14 28.57% 39.5 71.43%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 61.11% 44.22 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 87.5% 33.38 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84 44.05% 66.73 83.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 0.0% 30.29 85.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 66.67% 35.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 11 45.45% 33.0 45.45%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 83.33% 33.33 6.661 33.33% 0.174 0.6558
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 75.0% 58.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 20.0% 25.2 90.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 28.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 29 41.38% 26.9 68.97%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 17 41.18% 37.06 82.35%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 30 66.67% 44.03 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8 12.5% 30.75 -0.401 87.5% 0.079 0.5135
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 0.0% 34.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 50 16.0% 10.16 16.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 44.0 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 10 50.0% 27.1 50.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 16.67% 56.92 66.67% -0.401
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 29.0 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 58 12.07% 58.31 84.48% -0.277
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0%
Second Wave 0 38 47.37% 22.58 71.05%
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 33 41.24 69.7% 0.101 0.4112
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36 30.44 66.67% 0.274
All Things Weaken 21 30.33 66.67% 0.092 0.566
Attenuated Essence 3 63.33 100.0% 0.295
Back Against the Wall 29 38.62 72.41% 0.417
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 30.2 60.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0%
Downward Spiral 36 28.81 61.11%
Erosion of Will 23 25.0 47.83% -0.18
Intensifying Exploitation 6 14.67 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 22.83 83.33% -0.185
Memory Fades to Dust 43 29.65 60.47%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 21 36.67 66.67% 0.412
Promising Farmlands 23 32.39 43.48% -0.399 0.0483 -0.151
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 26.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 13.0 75.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 3 18.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 17 32.88 82.35%
Thriving Crops 4 23.75 25.0%
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 31 34.23 58.06%
Untended Land Crumbles 11 21.91 45.45%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 463 35.87% 32.84 77.11% 0.018 1.0096 -0.126
B 487 39.62% 34.04 78.23% -0.085 0.7804 0.739
C 559 36.38% 29.79 71.91% 0.247 0.9985 0.042
D 488 33.69% 26.8 69.67% -0.016 0.9285 -0.258
E 316 34.5% 26.62 63.61% -0.251 0.5037 -0.306
F 337 44.88% 36.65 78.04% -0.082 0.7922 0.105
G 265 39.62% 33.71 78.11% 0.434 1.2965 -0.302
H 285 37.68% 33.02 72.98% -0.258 0.5492 0.097

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 75 27.45% 24.65 85.33%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 53 17.14% 36.98 92.45% 0.295
Start of Game Growth 57 20.0% 38.96 94.74% 0.295
Unlimited Undo 100 34.15% 27.96 77.0% -0.468 -0.4405 -0.151
Using Tokens but Not Events 71 27.94% 26.58 85.92% 0.099 0.0715

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 168 12.25 11.31%
II 327 29.91 69.11%
III 402 34.94 93.03%
IV 167 38.9 98.8%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 369
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 215
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 164
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 107
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 100
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)