Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 80.0% 13.6 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 31.67 88.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 16.67% 32.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 50.0% 41.67 -6.86 50.0% -0.296 1.4774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 27 42.31% 26.37 85.19%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 27 22.22% 34.0 1.054 100.0% 0.37 0.4116
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 34 35.29% 40.62 5.924 91.18% 0.348 0.3703
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 33 24.24% 36.42 -0.065 69.7% -0.266 -0.0529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 38.5 -5.382 50.0% -0.237 0.1734
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 18 22.22% 23.39 72.22%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 33.33% 30.54 76.92%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 24 62.5% 28.46 -0.487 54.17% -0.538 -0.0085
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 52.94%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21 61.9% 40.0 5.401 57.14% 0.203 1.1928
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 15 60.0% 27.13 73.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 16 56.25% 46.75 68.75%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 44.58% 67.53 84.34%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 45.5 10.667 50.0% 0.238 1.2833
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 20.0% 25.2 -2.717 90.0% 0.116 0.4194
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 28.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23 39.13% 29.91 78.26%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 37.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 65.38% 43.85 8.661 61.54% 0.122 1.0747
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 41.4 2.683 100.0% 0.07 0.2834
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 80.0 11.577 100.0% 0.044 1.6245

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 71.43% 22.0 42.86% -0.466
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 67.75 87.5% -0.116
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 12.73% 60.22 85.45% 1.26
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.112
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0% -0.388 0.5468 -0.515
Second Wave 0 38 47.37% 22.58 71.05%
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45% -0.342

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 31 41.81 70.97% 0.203 0.3848 -0.1
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 30.94 66.67% 0.177
All Things Weaken 17 33.76 70.59% -0.088
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 27 36.15 70.37% -0.231
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0% 0.395
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 14.5 50.0% 0.241
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -1.1
Downward Spiral 34 28.12 58.82% 0.147 0.247 -0.229
Erosion of Will 20 28.4 55.0% 0.238 0.4892 -0.213
Intensifying Exploitation 1 21.0 0.0% -0.203
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 17.0 100.0% 0.281 -0.3394 0.44
Memory Fades to Dust 38 30.58 60.53% -0.326 -0.092 -0.245
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 38.84 73.68% 0.455
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.612
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 13.0 75.0% 0.116 0.452
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.141
The Border of Life and Death 3 18.0 0.0% -0.401 -0.9351
Thriving Communities 16 31.88 81.25% 0.152
Thriving Crops 4 23.75 25.0% -0.296 -0.5756 -0.781
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.211
Unnatural Proliferation 27 36.44 66.67% -0.379
Untended Land Crumbles 11 21.91 45.45% -0.633 -0.3925 0.512

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 408 37.08% 33.53 76.23% 0.562 1.5445 0.134
B 430 40.24% 35.02 78.84% -0.043 0.8377 -0.271
C 511 36.48% 30.09 72.6% -0.72 -0.0189 0.01
D 431 35.7% 27.02 69.37% 0.05 0.9698 -0.388
E 266 32.32% 26.62 64.66% 0.11 0.8734 0.133
F 296 43.99% 37.53 78.72% -0.705 0.1388 0.647
G 223 40.81% 34.88 78.03% 0.619 1.4287 -0.269
H 256 35.29% 34.25 77.34% 0.134 0.9518 0.02

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 67 30.23% 24.67 85.07% -0.326 0.0541
Skip Initial Invader Actions 51 12.12% 35.22 92.16% 0.599
Start of Game Growth 55 15.79% 37.4 94.55% 0.36 -0.1667 0.599
Unlimited Undo 91 32.88% 28.4 80.22% -0.296 -0.3926 -0.16
Using Tokens but Not Events 65 29.03% 26.14 86.15% 0.628 0.6222 0.422

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 148 13.55 12.84%
II 295 30.15 70.85%
III 350 34.83 92.86%
IV 146 38.66 99.32%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 320
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 199
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 144
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 89
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 55
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 85
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-25 03:56:39 (Pacific Time)