Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 75.0% 40.25 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.43 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 17 56.25% 25.29 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29 37.93% 42.1 96.55%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 16.67% 50.75 5.804 91.67% 0.123 0.4816
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 14 14.29% 24.79 85.71%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 33.33% 32.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 68.75% 46.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 56.25% 35.13 43.75%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 53.23 61.54%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 12 58.33% 27.83 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 45.45% 49.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 79 45.57% 66.99 84.81%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 24.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 3.124 100.0% 0.162 0.5987
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 38.0 4.956 60.0% 0.094 1.2372

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.439
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 63.33 100.0% -0.377
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.262
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.068
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.372
Second Wave 0 27 55.56% 23.37 74.07% -0.324 0.368
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 13.0 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.448

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 23 40.09 60.87% -0.275
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 32.42 75.0% 0.127 1.9043 0.119
All Things Weaken 11 38.73 72.73% -0.122
Back Against the Wall 22 36.86 63.64% -0.459
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% -0.82
Downward Spiral 26 31.62 73.08% 0.094 2.0554 -0.377
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.439
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.87 56.67% -0.251
Power Corrodes the Spirit 10 42.3 80.0% 0.074 2.0545 0.264
Promising Farmlands 15 39.67 60.0% -0.076
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.132
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.226
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.174
Unnatural Proliferation 17 34.24 70.59% -0.13
Untended Land Crumbles 6 27.67 66.67% 0.132

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 299 38.25% 37.87 82.61% 0.14 0.8766 -0.14
B 304 42.52% 38.28 83.22% 0.112 0.8089 -0.5
C 316 40.94% 35.95 85.13% -0.098 0.372 0.128
D 250 43.35% 32.18 80.4% -0.344 0.3657 -0.241
E 114 39.64% 34.68 84.21% 0.385 0.9295 0.463
F 196 41.45% 42.47 84.69% -0.068 0.5934 0.825
G 153 39.87% 37.12 79.74% -0.27 0.3608 -0.302
H 172 33.92% 36.74 81.98% 0.149 0.8138 -0.216

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 26.05 90.91% -0.506 1.7231
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 30.56% 26.43 89.29% -0.506 -0.2792
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43 14.29% 31.63 95.35%
Start of Game Growth 39 20.0% 35.62 97.44%
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% -0.082
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 28.26% 27.44 91.67% -0.147 0.008 -0.372

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 52 22.65 36.54%
II 209 31.08 75.6%
III 254 34.66 92.52%
IV 87 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 230
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 152
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 86
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 33
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 59
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)