Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 38.33 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 -8.144 0.0% -0.58 0.7762
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 21 50.0% 25.9 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 6.406 100.0% 0.402 0.4123
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 31.82% 47.05 10.211 90.91% 0.205 0.4927
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 16 18.75% 55.56 7.903 87.5% 0.399 0.6963
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 44.44% 32.3 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11 36.36% 35.55 -4.67 81.82% -0.225 0.4983
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 57.69% 40.62 2.499 61.54% -0.332 0.9043
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 10.417 50.0% 0.194 2.1355
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 28.23 76.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 57.14% 51.29 78.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 -5.182 42.86% -0.189 1.2317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 3.097 50.0% 0.214 0.4911
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 24.5 10.375 50.0% 0.147 0.5587
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 25.0% 33.13 3.787 37.5% -0.406 0.4799
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 3.753 100.0% 0.284 0.4118
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 35.0% 29.65 3.35 75.0% 0.544 0.7419
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 25.0% 48.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 45.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 25.2 -1.158 80.0% -0.098 0.0011
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 43 13.95% 9.44 -4.189 13.95% -1.926 -0.8158
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 -5.646 50.0% -0.317 0.6918
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.46
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 77.43 100.0% -0.162
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.4
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.026
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.495
Second Wave 0 31 54.84% 23.39 70.97% -0.359 -0.273
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.292

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 40.11 66.67% 0.715 0.8445 -0.196
Aid From Lesser Spirits 25 32.04 72.0% 0.108
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.312 -0.004 -0.096
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.393
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 28.15 46.15% -0.186 0.19 -0.868
Downward Spiral 30 29.67 63.33% -0.844 -0.6781 -0.212
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.46
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.17
Memory Fades to Dust 33 31.09 60.61% 0.26 0.5525 -0.237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 40.18 76.47% 0.642 0.8032 0.458
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.821
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67% -0.189 0.2037
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.137
Thriving Communities 12 32.5 91.67% 0.308
Thriving Crops 2 47.5 50.0% -0.488
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.178
Unnatural Proliferation 20 37.65 75.0% -0.053
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.194 0.452 0.367

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 355 37.06% 35.18 79.15% -0.137 1.0059 -0.118
B 367 42.58% 36.05 80.38% -0.494 0.5608 -0.62
C 421 35.25% 31.73 76.01% -0.39 0.4981 0.168
D 354 36.83% 27.99 70.34% -0.651 0.4029 0.042
E 201 30.3% 27.93 66.17% -0.094 0.8108 -0.158
F 246 42.74% 40.05 83.74% 0.706 1.7103 0.765
G 178 40.45% 37.04 80.9% 0.922 1.8902 -0.189
H 209 36.54% 36.22 80.86% 0.164 1.1562 0.127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 25.16 88.0% -0.004 0.6595
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 29.27% 25.19 85.71% -0.139 0.3554
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 13.33% 34.46 93.75% 0.19 -0.4326 0.457
Start of Game Growth 47 20.0% 38.57 95.74% 0.19 -0.2224 0.457
Unlimited Undo 79 34.43% 29.97 83.54% -0.138 -0.2328 -0.087
Using Tokens but Not Events 54 29.41% 26.28 87.04% 0.007 0.0825 0.085

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 105 16.77 18.1%
II 252 30.59 73.02%
III 297 34.74 92.26%
IV 122 38.3 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 269
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 174
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 120
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 53
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 70
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)