Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 8 62.5% 35.63 3.977 100.0% 0.376 0.6995
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 16.67% 32.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 40.0% 50.0 60.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 27 42.31% 26.37 2.24 85.19% 0.101 0.3172
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 32 37.5% 39.81 90.63%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 32 25.0% 37.56 -4.993 71.88% -1.214 -0.9219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 18 22.22% 23.39 72.22%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 33.33% 30.54 76.92%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 16 56.25% 31.81 68.75%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 0.278 52.94% -0.306 0.8666
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 15 60.0% 27.13 -5.163 73.33% -0.31 0.4941
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 16 56.25% 46.75 68.75%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 83 44.58% 67.53 12.309 84.34% 0.134 1.5791
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 21 38.1% 29.62 76.19%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 37.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 25 68.0% 42.88 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 41.4 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 71.43% 22.0 42.86% -0.455
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 67.75 87.5% -0.129
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.367
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0% -0.074 0.5167
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.066
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.47
Second Wave 0 36 50.0% 21.94 69.44% 0.148 0.2251
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45% -0.231 0.5455 -0.326

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 28 40.39 67.86% 0.364 0.5538 -0.12
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 30.94 66.67% 0.16
All Things Weaken 17 33.76 70.59% -0.31 -0.0825 -0.09
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 26 36.27 69.23% 0.134 0.1031 -0.201
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0% -0.142 0.0114 0.306
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 14.5 50.0% -0.231 -0.0746 0.255
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -1.178
Downward Spiral 33 28.33 57.58% -0.251
Erosion of Will 19 26.68 52.63% 0.198 0.4379 -0.455
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 17.5 100.0% 0.154
Memory Fades to Dust 37 31.41 62.16% -0.439 -0.1542 -0.229
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 38.84 73.68% 0.48
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.782
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.136
Thriving Communities 14 34.86 92.86% 0.36
Thriving Crops 3 31.67 33.33% -0.492
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.163
Unnatural Proliferation 26 36.88 69.23% -0.393
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.4

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 392 36.8% 33.84 76.28% -0.156 0.7847 0.037
B 409 40.6% 35.34 78.97% 0.068 0.912 -0.484
C 476 35.32% 30.86 74.16% -0.111 0.614 0.091
D 407 35.06% 27.32 69.53% 0.821 1.6842 -0.027
E 244 32.78% 26.86 64.34% 0.009 0.7138 -0.02
F 285 43.21% 38.2 80.35% -0.221 0.5727 0.7
G 212 41.04% 34.65 77.36% -0.368 0.4516 -0.363
H 245 35.25% 34.95 78.78% -0.027 0.7439 0.081

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 66 28.57% 25.05 86.36% 0.101 0.5652
Skip Initial Invader Actions 50 12.5% 35.92 94.0% 0.533
Start of Game Growth 51 17.65% 39.04 96.08% 0.533
Unlimited Undo 89 32.39% 29.03 82.02% 0.194 0.098 0.005
Using Tokens but Not Events 57 31.48% 25.88 84.21% 0.091

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 139 14.46 13.67%
II 277 30.34 72.2%
III 338 34.85 92.6%
IV 135 38.6 99.26%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 308
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 190
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 133
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 80
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 50
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 81
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-13 04:00:02 (Pacific Time)