Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Sunrise (3 Boards)

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Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	85	31.25%	33.06	-1.188	89.41%	0.448	0.5528
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	46	54.55%	27.74	-3.371	73.91%	-0.305	-0.1076
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	61	37.7%	42.84	0.909	78.69%	-0.225	-0.3388
Eyes Watch From the Trees	48	35.42%	32.92	-1.454	75.0%	-0.436	-0.8403
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	54	33.33%	32.11	-2.36	77.78%	-0.24	-0.5453
Fractured Days Split the Sky	15	53.33%	40.8	0.351	86.67%	0.105	0.4534
Heart of the Wildfire	58	56.14%	32.59	-2.178	72.41%	-0.516	-0.1975
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	120	28.33%	37.64	0.698	87.5%	0.384	0.0412
Lightning's Swift Strike	98	44.68%	40.11	2.124	83.67%	0.014	0.2399
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	12	50.0%	37.42	-1.159	66.67%	-0.804	-1.0906

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	35.0	-1.742	100.0%	0.066	0.4796
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	5	40.0%	43.2	3.976	80.0%	-0.158	1.0836
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	1	100.0%	22.0	-2.948	0.0%	-0.434	1.063
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	2	100.0%	22.0	-5.168	0.0%	-0.813	1.1264
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1	0.0%	64.0	15.793	100.0%	0.055	2.0979
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	15	64.29%	24.07	-3.718	86.67%	0.305	0.3459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	17	17.65%	32.06	-0.521	100.0%	1.077	1.059
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	26	30.77%	42.58	4.417	96.15%	1.102	1.1156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	17	29.41%	46.88	6.647	88.24%	0.125	0.4085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	9	22.22%	48.56	6.243	88.89%	-0.018	0.3417

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	9	66.67%	23.22	-5.053	55.56%	-0.604	-0.0386
Dahan Insurrection	4	4	25.0%	57.0	11.935	100.0%	0.434	0.8338
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	55	12.73%	61.04	7.008	83.64%	-0.201	0.1637
Rituals of Terror	3	7	42.86%	41.71	2.993	71.43%	-0.081	0.5641
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	1	100.0%	23.0	-6.549	0.0%	-0.498	0.1492
Second Wave	0	25	52.0%	31.84	-0.817	84.0%	-0.156	0.2739
Ward the Shores	2	10	40.0%	35.4	-0.694	60.0%	-0.432	0.5993

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	19	42.21	0.152	63.16%	-0.939	1.1304
Aid From Lesser Spirits	21	33.67	-2.221	76.19%	-0.625	1.2881
All Things Weaken	7	42.43	0.607	85.71%	-0.058	2.1017
Back Against the Wall	21	37.33	-1.652	61.9%	-1.155	0.9325
Disintegrating Ecosystem	10	28.7	-4.645	40.0%	-1.365	0.8569
Downward Spiral	20	27.35	-2.723	65.0%	-1.13	0.8921
Erosion of Will	15	29.47	-4.797	53.33%	-1.297	0.9108
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	2	18.5	-6.926	100.0%	0.148	0.8268
Memory Fades to Dust	21	29.48	-2.961	52.38%	-1.595	0.6195
Power Corrodes the Spirit	5	42.4	0.123	60.0%	-0.73	1.291
Promising Farmlands	14	38.86	-1.858	57.14%	-0.784	1.4243
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	2	47.5	2.879	100.0%	0.134	0.5456
Thriving Communities	5	43.0	-0.817	80.0%	-0.196	1.8918
Tipping Point	6	26.5	-5.101	50.0%	-1.076	1.1483
Unnatural Proliferation	11	30.0	-3.155	72.73%	-0.433	1.6477
Untended Land Crumbles	5	27.8	-4.221	60.0%	-0.804	1.2978

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	237	38.2%	39.35	0.614	81.86%	-0.097	-0.7848
B	245	40.5%	38.34	0.189	81.22%	-0.057	-0.8405
C	255	40.32%	36.35	-0.291	85.1%	0.333	-0.6799
D	180	43.1%	32.22	-1.801	77.78%	-0.25	-1.0273
E	79	43.42%	37.05	0.056	82.28%	0.091	-0.803
F	162	38.36%	43.57	2.106	85.8%	0.384	-0.4565
G	118	39.83%	39.01	-0.204	76.27%	-0.232	-1.0645
H	149	33.11%	37.74	-0.686	80.54%	-0.147	-0.9856

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	9	0.0%	26.0	-1.568	100.0%	0.278	2.3305
Not Using Events or Tokens	34	29.63%	25.35	-3.223	88.24%	0.259	0.4742
Skip Initial Invader Actions	18	30.77%	32.44	0.848	94.44%	0.148	-0.5381
Start of Game Growth	24	26.32%	33.0	0.762	95.83%	0.525	0.0563
Unlimited Undo	41	45.71%	35.34	1.148	82.93%	0.071	-0.3524
Using Tokens but Not Events	38	33.33%	28.05	-3.38	92.11%	0.741	0.6904

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	33	22.37	15.15%
II	180	30.88	74.44%
III	194	34.39	93.3%
IV	68	37.55	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	28
Lose: Blight pool ran out	49
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1
Lose: Scenario condition	7
Lose: Spirit destroyed	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	110
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	144
Win: Sacrifice victory	2
Win: Scenario condition	9
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	54

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)