Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 60.0% 32.2 -4.729 60.0% -0.286 0.4468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 -2.195 62.5% -0.273 0.7856
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 19 55.56% 27.16 2.455 89.47% 0.273 0.3707
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 15.38% 46.85 -7.237 84.62% -0.356 -0.293
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 15 20.0% 23.8 -4.308 80.0% -0.337 -0.1618
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 28.57% 32.88 4.023 75.0% 0.181 0.3947
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 68.75% 46.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 6.502 50.0% 0.197 1.2118
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15 40.0% 50.8 -6.429 60.0% -0.352 1.6669
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 28.23 76.92%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 45.45% 49.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 79 45.57% 66.99 84.81%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 0.449 87.5% 0.31 0.4595
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 25.0% 48.25 4.042 100.0% 0.247 0.5927
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 45.5 3.728 100.0% 0.148 0.7652
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 38.0 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 -0.143 0.0% -0.276 1.156

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.467
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 63.33 100.0% -0.385
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.28
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.053
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.443
Second Wave 0 27 55.56% 23.37 74.07%
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 13.0 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.427

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 40.63 62.5% -0.285
Aid From Lesser Spirits 25 32.04 72.0% -0.276 -0.2378 0.113
All Things Weaken 12 40.42 75.0% -0.107
Back Against the Wall 22 36.86 63.64% -0.422
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% -0.802
Downward Spiral 26 31.62 73.08% -0.385
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.467
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.132
Memory Fades to Dust 31 31.42 58.06% 0.148 0.6296 -0.244
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 39.36 72.73% -0.337 -0.0328 0.259
Promising Farmlands 16 38.19 56.25% -0.273 0.3135 -0.093
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.142
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.216
Thriving Crops 1 70.0 100.0%
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.18
Unnatural Proliferation 17 34.24 70.59% -0.102
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.131

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 305 37.8% 37.5 81.97% -0.467 0.3733 -0.285
B 310 42.33% 38.16 83.23% 0.355 1.1341 -0.664
C 326 40.58% 35.72 84.66% -0.006 0.6476 0.325
D 260 42.8% 31.98 80.0% 0.229 1.0282 -0.108
E 121 40.68% 34.83 83.47% -0.036 0.5926 0.471
F 205 41.09% 41.88 84.39% 0.146 0.8654 0.771
G 158 41.14% 37.06 79.11% -0.363 0.3788 -0.261
H 180 35.2% 36.73 81.67% 0.149 0.797 -0.234

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 26.05 90.91%
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 30.56% 26.43 89.29%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43 14.29% 31.63 95.35%
Start of Game Growth 41 22.22% 36.37 97.56% 0.345 0.015
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% -0.132
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 28.26% 27.44 91.67% -0.159

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 55 21.03 34.55%
II 216 31.04 75.46%
III 260 34.74 92.31%
IV 91 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 235
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 157
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 90
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 3
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 33
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 62
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)