Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 100.0% 36.0 8.045 100.0% 0.368 0.7508
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 10.901 80.0% 0.259 0.978
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 -8.107 0.0% -0.508 0.8005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 44.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 23 45.45% 25.74 2.748 86.96% 0.287 0.4702
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 5.64 100.0% 0.327 0.3843
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 96.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 47.48 11.541 91.3% 0.211 0.4514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 16 18.75% 55.56 6.407 87.5% 0.234 0.5154
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 44.44% 32.3 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11 36.36% 35.55 -4.666 81.82% -0.262 0.455
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 57.69% 40.62 2.933 61.54% -0.381 0.8126
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 12.896 50.0% 0.1 2.0505
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 57.14% 29.07 7.902 78.57% 0.165 0.9488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 14 57.14% 51.29 78.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 -5.742 42.86% -0.256 1.1367
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 2.628 50.0% 0.095 0.3682
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 24.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 4.575 100.0% 0.275 0.3757
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 35.0% 29.65 3.034 75.0% 0.554 0.7228
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 40.0% 48.2 6.051 100.0% 0.043 0.4393
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 -3.099 57.14% -0.731 -0.0146
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 25.2 0.326 80.0% 0.133 0.1899
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 -4.241 12.5% -2.051 -0.9492
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 -4.564 50.0% -0.288 0.6786
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.46
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 77.43 100.0% -0.162
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.4
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% 0.368 0.4562 -0.026
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.495
Second Wave 0 31 54.84% 23.39 70.97% -0.438 -0.3107
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.292

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 40.11 66.67% 0.687 0.8067 -0.196
Aid From Lesser Spirits 30 31.5 66.67% -0.363 -0.4957 0.108
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.096
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.393
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 28.15 46.15% -0.164 0.1843 -0.868
Downward Spiral 30 29.67 63.33% -0.985 -0.808 -0.212
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.46
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.17
Memory Fades to Dust 33 31.09 60.61% 0.213 0.4971 -0.237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 40.61 77.78% 0.639 0.8043 0.458
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.821
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67% -0.256 0.1097
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.137
Thriving Communities 14 34.86 92.86% 0.308
Thriving Crops 2 47.5 50.0% -0.488
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.178
Unnatural Proliferation 20 37.65 75.0% -0.053
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.1 0.3341 0.367

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 357 36.84% 35.1 78.99% -0.117 1.0005 -0.118
B 368 42.46% 36.06 80.43% -0.179 0.8367 -0.62
C 431 35.12% 31.56 75.41% -0.44 0.4147 0.168
D 365 36.52% 27.78 69.86% -0.482 0.5524 0.042
E 212 31.1% 27.38 64.62% -0.246 0.6341 -0.158
F 250 43.27% 40.22 84.0% 0.44 1.4133 0.765
G 184 41.85% 36.84 79.89% 0.762 1.6978 -0.189
H 216 36.74% 35.94 80.09% 0.288 1.2522 0.127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 25.16 88.0% -0.184 0.4753
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 29.27% 25.19 85.71% -0.568 -0.0737
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 13.33% 34.46 93.75% -0.084 -0.6885 0.457
Start of Game Growth 47 20.0% 38.57 95.74% -0.084 -0.5045 0.457
Unlimited Undo 79 34.43% 29.97 83.54% -0.34 -0.4605 -0.087
Using Tokens but Not Events 54 29.41% 26.28 87.04% 0.109 0.1789 0.085

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 112 16.64 16.96%
II 253 30.58 73.12%
III 300 34.75 92.0%
IV 129 38.32 99.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 271
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 127
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 58
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 73
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-25 04:21:21 (Pacific Time)