Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4 25.0% 38.5 1.183 75.0% -0.302 0.9492
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 -3.61 0.0% -0.471 1.0503
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 -5.33 0.0% -0.835 1.1416
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 61.54% 25.14 -3.231 92.86% 0.756 0.7966
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 18.75% 32.0 -0.49 100.0% 1.138 1.1085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 24 33.33% 40.92 4.065 95.83% 1.196 1.2003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 29.41% 46.88 6.649 88.24% 0.134 0.4228
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 22.22% 48.56 6.199 88.89% -0.015 0.352
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 9.907 66.67% -0.184 0.6453
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 8.185 71.43% -0.226 1.0156
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 20.0% 24.9 -4.688 90.0% 0.371 0.7038
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 50.0% 29.5 -2.642 75.0% -0.207 0.2973
The Kingdom of England 2 4 8 37.5% 39.5 2.19 100.0% 0.838 1.8058
The Kingdom of England 3 6 12 66.67% 44.08 4.083 75.0% -0.503 1.0753
The Kingdom of England 4 7 13 53.85% 38.54 1.852 53.85% -0.994 0.5041
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 5.408 50.0% -0.403 1.6642
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10 30.0% 51.6 8.075 60.0% -0.856 1.3986
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 11 9.09% 31.73 -1.244 90.91% 0.372 0.8868
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 11 54.55% 27.73 -2.536 72.73% -0.156 0.74
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 41.88 2.581 75.0% -0.327 1.8103
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 50.0% 49.38 8.025 75.0% -0.14 2.0455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 3.835 50.0% -0.616 1.5304
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 23.5 -2.621 0.0% -0.788 1.0322
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 73 42.47% 66.6 11.408 83.56% 0.194 2.3009
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 30.5 -0.366 100.0% 0.233 0.3174
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 100.0% 25.0 -5.527 100.0% 0.108 0.1286
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 36.36% 27.82 -3.365 54.55% -0.762 -0.5306
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 58.0 11.693 100.0% 0.183 0.4693
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 50.0 4.834 100.0% 0.058 0.8352
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 4 50.0% 38.0 1.952 50.0% -0.731 0.4256
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 68.75% 42.44 3.904 56.25% -0.678 0.4533
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -6.669 100.0% 0.097 -0.0093
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 -2.414 100.0% 0.304 1.0473
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 43.67 2.881 100.0% 0.24 0.672
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 34.5 1.086 50.0% -0.552 0.6967
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 29.0 -2.518 33.33% -0.795 0.3321

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 9 66.67% 23.22 -5.085 55.56% -0.677 -0.1037
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 100.0% 38.0 6.577 100.0% 0.28 0.6799
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 52 11.54% 62.1 7.161 84.62% -0.166 0.1994
Rituals of Terror 3 7 42.86% 41.71 3.071 71.43% -0.1 0.5438
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.269 0.0% -0.519 0.1225
Second Wave 0 25 52.0% 31.84 -0.861 84.0% -0.148 0.2798
Ward the Shores 2 10 40.0% 35.4 -0.741 60.0% -0.476 0.5612

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 18 41.67 -0.266 61.11% -0.964 1.1098
Aid From Lesser Spirits 20 34.35 -2.209 75.0% -0.759 1.1604
All Things Weaken 7 42.43 0.75 85.71% 0.006 2.1645
Back Against the Wall 21 37.33 -1.694 61.9% -1.131 0.9631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 32.14 -3.466 42.86% -1.073 1.1514
Downward Spiral 19 26.63 -2.884 63.16% -1.273 0.7476
Erosion of Will 15 29.47 -4.608 53.33% -1.266 0.9423
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 -6.815 100.0% 0.17 0.8624
Memory Fades to Dust 19 28.47 -3.269 52.63% -1.588 0.6305
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 42.4 0.029 60.0% -0.764 1.2568
Promising Farmlands 14 38.86 -1.885 57.14% -0.806 1.4085
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 2.903 100.0% 0.15 0.5614
Thriving Communities 4 50.0 1.122 75.0% -0.332 1.7613
Tipping Point 6 26.5 -5.437 50.0% -1.14 1.0855
Unnatural Proliferation 11 30.0 -3.244 72.73% -0.521 1.5681
Untended Land Crumbles 5 27.8 -4.065 60.0% -0.877 1.2286

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 222 38.99% 39.39 0.554 81.53% -0.057 -1.1691
B 231 39.47% 38.62 0.185 81.39% -0.055 -1.2633
C 237 40.52% 36.65 -0.206 85.23% 0.347 -1.0923
D 171 42.42% 32.16 -1.753 77.19% -0.337 -1.5384
E 74 45.21% 37.11 -0.025 81.08% 0.014 -1.2982
F 154 39.87% 44.05 2.158 85.71% 0.412 -0.8539
G 113 39.82% 39.26 -0.208 76.99% -0.218 -1.4753
H 139 34.06% 37.73 -0.764 81.29% -0.08 -1.3459

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.0 -2.122 100.0% 0.22 2.2745
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 26.92% 24.81 -3.509 87.1% 0.183 0.401
Skip Initial Invader Actions 16 30.77% 33.25 0.789 93.75% 0.062 -0.6312
Start of Game Growth 22 26.32% 33.64 0.717 95.45% 0.407 -0.0559
Unlimited Undo 38 43.75% 35.97 1.573 86.84% 0.381 -0.0395
Using Tokens but Not Events 34 37.5% 26.59 -3.399 94.12% 1.024 0.9719

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 30 22.34 16.67%
II 169 30.81 73.37%
III 182 34.31 93.41%
IV 66 37.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 52
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)