Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 9 66.67% 23.22 -5.435 55.56% -0.65 -0.0774
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 100.0% 38.0 6.756 100.0% 0.327 0.7278
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 52 11.54% 62.1 6.989 84.62% -0.146 0.2291
Rituals of Terror 3 7 42.86% 41.71 2.687 71.43% -0.105 0.5167
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 -7.053 0.0% -0.562 0.0625
Second Wave 0 23 47.83% 30.61 -1.705 82.61% -0.271 0.1476
Ward the Shores 2 10 40.0% 35.4 -0.933 60.0% -0.562 0.4687

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 17 41.41 -0.425 58.82% -0.999 1.0688
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 37.47 -1.007 76.47% -0.665 1.2515
All Things Weaken 7 42.43 0.761 85.71% 0.043 2.203
Back Against the Wall 18 37.22 -2.291 61.11% -1.076 1.0159
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 32.14 -3.751 42.86% -1.03 1.1914
Downward Spiral 18 27.17 -2.721 66.67% -1.1 0.9145
Erosion of Will 14 29.43 -4.898 50.0% -1.42 0.7914
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 -6.568 100.0% 0.186 0.8975
Memory Fades to Dust 19 28.47 -3.516 52.63% -1.596 0.6193
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 42.4 -0.407 60.0% -0.764 1.2561
Promising Farmlands 12 42.0 -0.555 66.67% -0.479 1.7354
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 2.707 100.0% 0.163 0.5802
Thriving Communities 4 50.0 0.802 75.0% -0.363 1.7444
Tipping Point 6 26.5 -5.64 50.0% -1.148 1.068
Unnatural Proliferation 10 27.8 -4.744 70.0% -0.621 1.4596
Untended Land Crumbles 4 30.75 -2.432 75.0% -0.413 1.6822

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 208 37.86% 40.17 0.667 81.73% -0.072 -1.1451
B 219 39.17% 39.08 0.126 81.28% -0.068 -1.2326
C 221 39.17% 37.37 -0.273 85.97% 0.402 -0.9948
D 155 42.38% 32.41 -1.808 76.13% -0.422 -1.58
E 63 46.77% 38.21 0.11 80.95% -0.022 -1.2786
F 143 38.73% 45.19 2.425 87.41% 0.581 -0.6448
G 110 40.91% 39.21 -0.538 76.36% -0.226 -1.4381
H 132 34.35% 38.42 -0.757 81.06% -0.148 -1.3694

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 25.2 -2.257 100.0% 0.234 2.2725
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 31.82% 23.8 -4.214 84.0% 0.001 0.2208
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13 33.33% 34.38 1.058 92.31% 0.072 -0.6341
Start of Game Growth 18 29.41% 34.44 0.59 94.44% 0.355 -0.1039
Unlimited Undo 33 44.83% 35.97 1.226 84.85% 0.238 -0.164
Using Tokens but Not Events 33 38.71% 26.61 -3.549 93.94% 0.972 0.9259

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26 22.34 7.69%
II 159 30.71 73.58%
III 172 34.23 94.19%
IV 60 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 96
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 46
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 23
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)