Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 75.0% 40.25 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.43 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 58.82% 27.17 2.097 88.89% 0.047 -0.0524
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30 40.0% 42.47 1.708 96.67% 0.04 0.2008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 16.67% 50.75 91.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 14 14.29% 24.79 85.71%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 33.33% 32.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 68.75% 46.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 58.82% 36.53 2.097 47.06% 0.047 1.4769
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 53.23 4.776 61.54% 0.052 2.5312
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 28.23 -0.333 76.92% 0.045 1.2043
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 45.45% 49.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 79 45.57% 66.99 84.81%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 24.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 38.0 3.598 60.0% 0.058 1.1462

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.457
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 63.33 100.0% -0.405
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.289
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.058
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.427
Second Wave 0 27 55.56% 23.37 74.07% -0.414 0.1427
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 13.0 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.436

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 40.63 62.5% 0.04 2.0155 -0.3
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 32.42 75.0% 0.081
All Things Weaken 12 40.42 75.0% 0.047 2.1152 -0.132
Back Against the Wall 22 36.86 63.64% -0.461
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% -0.806
Downward Spiral 26 31.62 73.08% 0.058 1.9386 -0.405
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.457
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0% 0.034 0.5512 0.138
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.87 56.67% -0.295
Power Corrodes the Spirit 10 42.3 80.0% 0.259
Promising Farmlands 15 39.67 60.0% -0.091
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.13
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.227
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.167
Unnatural Proliferation 17 34.24 70.59% -0.165
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.045 2.0443 0.125

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 299 38.25% 37.87 82.61% 0.102 0.8477 -0.189
B 306 42.91% 38.4 83.33% 0.145 0.8408 -0.559
C 316 40.94% 35.95 85.13% 0.13 0.6157 0.202
D 251 43.59% 32.29 80.48% 0.133 0.8455 -0.139
E 115 40.18% 34.67 84.35% -0.171 0.3906 0.437
F 197 41.75% 42.42 84.77% -0.272 0.3972 0.803
G 155 40.65% 37.36 80.0% -0.239 0.3623 -0.297
H 174 34.68% 36.82 82.18% 0.18 0.8436 -0.242

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 26.05 90.91%
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 30.56% 26.43 89.29%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43 14.29% 31.63 95.35%
Start of Game Growth 39 20.0% 35.62 97.44%
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% -0.112
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 28.26% 27.44 91.67% -0.292 -0.141 -0.127

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 52 22.67 36.54%
II 209 31.11 75.6%
III 255 34.68 92.55%
IV 89 37.94 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 152
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 88
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 33
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 59
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)