Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 -0.896 100.0% 0.067 0.4773
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 43.2 4.169 80.0% -0.141 1.1044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 -2.851 0.0% -0.428 1.0741
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 -5.305 0.0% -0.808 1.1449
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 15 64.29% 24.07 -3.702 86.67% 0.338 0.3802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 32.06 -0.487 100.0% 1.088 1.069
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 24 33.33% 40.92 4.07 95.83% 1.107 1.1199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 29.41% 46.88 6.711 88.24% 0.152 0.4404
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 22.22% 48.56 6.269 88.89% -0.006 0.3611
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 9.803 66.67% -0.267 0.5598
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 8.047 71.43% -0.248 0.9903
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 20.0% 24.9 -4.559 90.0% 0.409 0.7411
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 33.33% 33.17 -1.277 66.67% -0.618 -0.104
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9 44.44% 36.89 0.903 88.89% 0.531 1.4985
The Kingdom of England 3 6 12 66.67% 44.08 4.245 75.0% -0.447 1.1315
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 50.0% 37.29 1.402 50.0% -1.228 0.2703
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 5.33 50.0% -0.373 1.7004
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 36.36% 49.18 7.142 54.55% -0.991 1.257
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 11 9.09% 31.73 -1.156 90.91% 0.352 0.8661
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 11 54.55% 27.73 -2.387 72.73% -0.147 0.7523
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 41.88 2.757 75.0% -0.302 1.8405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 50.0% 49.38 8.181 75.0% -0.107 2.0888
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 3.888 50.0% -0.673 1.4857
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 23.5 -2.428 0.0% -0.731 1.0863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 73 42.47% 66.6 11.598 83.56% 0.306 2.4034
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 30.5 -0.326 100.0% 0.227 0.3119
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 100.0% 25.0 -5.661 100.0% 0.088 0.1217
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 36.36% 27.82 -3.312 54.55% -0.746 -0.5107
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 54.0 9.556 100.0% 0.198 0.4845
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 50.0% 45.5 5.536 100.0% 0.289 1.0726
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 4 50.0% 38.0 2.189 50.0% -0.698 0.4686
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 70.59% 43.0 4.383 58.82% -0.621 0.5036
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -5.858 100.0% 0.106 0.0042
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 -1.894 100.0% 0.31 1.0888
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 43.67 3.325 100.0% 0.261 0.6808
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 34.5 1.291 50.0% -0.506 0.7482
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 29.0 -2.354 33.33% -0.81 0.3067

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 9 66.67% 23.22 -5.008 55.56% -0.605 -0.0356
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 50.0% 51.5 12.0 100.0% 0.417 0.8156
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 13.21% 61.23 6.985 83.02% -0.246 0.1203
Rituals of Terror 3 7 42.86% 41.71 3.025 71.43% -0.072 0.5734
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.497 0.0% -0.5 0.1455
Second Wave 0 25 52.0% 31.84 -0.708 84.0% -0.135 0.2935
Ward the Shores 2 10 40.0% 35.4 -0.691 60.0% -0.433 0.6009

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 19 42.21 0.179 63.16% -0.929 1.1439
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 33.67 -2.157 76.19% -0.615 1.3027
All Things Weaken 7 42.43 0.64 85.71% -0.061 2.1093
Back Against the Wall 21 37.33 -1.586 61.9% -1.139 0.9523
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 28.78 -4.803 33.33% -1.503 0.7214
Downward Spiral 20 27.35 -2.544 65.0% -1.108 0.9153
Erosion of Will 15 29.47 -4.765 53.33% -1.284 0.9248
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 -6.79 100.0% 0.152 0.8384
Memory Fades to Dust 21 29.48 -2.859 52.38% -1.592 0.6265
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 42.4 0.152 60.0% -0.721 1.3029
Promising Farmlands 14 38.86 -1.802 57.14% -0.761 1.4534
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 2.985 100.0% 0.134 0.5443
Thriving Communities 4 50.0 1.112 75.0% -0.288 1.8063
Tipping Point 6 26.5 -5.143 50.0% -1.071 1.1553
Unnatural Proliferation 11 30.0 -2.954 72.73% -0.429 1.6575
Untended Land Crumbles 5 27.8 -4.305 60.0% -0.807 1.2982

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 231 38.77% 39.0 0.486 81.39% -0.105 -0.8656
B 242 40.17% 38.37 0.28 80.99% -0.057 -0.9143
C 252 40.41% 36.23 -0.246 84.92% 0.315 -0.7734
D 176 42.94% 31.98 -1.787 77.27% -0.26 -1.1104
E 78 44.0% 36.76 0.106 82.05% 0.115 -0.8506
F 161 38.61% 43.47 2.147 85.71% 0.398 -0.5159
G 118 39.83% 39.01 -0.139 76.27% -0.224 -1.1292
H 146 33.79% 37.3 -0.857 80.14% -0.156 -1.0706

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 26.0 -1.574 100.0% 0.278 2.3342
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 29.63% 25.35 -3.177 88.24% 0.282 0.4982
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 30.77% 32.44 0.877 94.44% 0.151 -0.5358
Start of Game Growth 24 26.32% 33.0 0.82 95.83% 0.53 0.0601
Unlimited Undo 41 45.71% 35.34 1.234 82.93% 0.089 -0.3312
Using Tokens but Not Events 36 35.29% 26.14 -3.772 91.67% 0.744 0.6915

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33 22.35 15.15%
II 177 30.84 74.01%
III 191 34.35 93.19%
IV 67 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 141
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 109
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 53
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 49
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)