Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 0.0% 52.0 4.287 100.0% 0.114 0.5171
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 50.0 6.535 100.0% 0.393 0.5842
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 9.327 100.0% 0.141 0.9066
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 80.0% 13.6 14.638 0.0% 0.282 2.1822
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 31.67 88.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 14.29% 33.14 85.71%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 60.0% 29.2 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 28 40.74% 26.46 1.309 85.71% 0.187 0.4461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 30 20.0% 33.3 0.732 100.0% 0.186 0.1564
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 34 35.29% 40.62 91.18%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 36 25.0% 34.75 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 22.73% 23.45 -5.757 72.73% -0.441 -0.1448
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16 26.67% 33.06 7.819 81.25% 0.18 0.6696
The Kingdom of England 2 4 26 57.69% 29.19 57.69%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 52.94%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21 61.9% 40.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 19 47.37% 43.89 -5.88 47.37% -0.519 1.3624
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 64.71% 26.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 23.08% 41.31 -1.801 76.92% -0.3 0.8302
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 61.11% 44.22 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84 44.05% 66.73 83.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 0.0% 22.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 11 45.45% 33.0 -3.487 45.45% -0.154 0.503
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 100.0% 20.0 -1.063 0.0% -0.568 -0.1295
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 45.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 20.0% 25.2 90.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 28.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23 39.13% 29.91 78.26%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 15 46.67% 35.2 0.325 80.0% 0.019 0.3291
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 27 62.96% 42.22 -2.453 59.26% -0.428 0.5261
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 14.29% 31.0 4.287 85.71% 0.114 0.1848
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 0.0% 34.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 50 16.0% 10.16 16.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 62.5% 21.13 37.5% -0.16 0.2047 -0.45
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 10.0% 63.1 80.0% 0.18 0.0477 -0.113
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 29.0 66.67% 0.114 1.0626
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 56 12.5% 59.14 83.93% -0.241 -0.7022 0.92
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.171
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0% -0.558
Second Wave 0 38 47.37% 22.58 71.05% 0.385 0.4344
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45% -0.353

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 31 41.81 70.97% -0.281 -0.1044 -0.118
Aid From Lesser Spirits 34 30.26 64.71% -0.305 -0.409 0.289
All Things Weaken 20 31.05 65.0% 0.173 0.4019 -0.081
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 27 36.15 70.37% -0.191
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0% 0.437
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 32.75 75.0% 0.316
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -1.066
Downward Spiral 35 28.69 60.0% -0.201
Erosion of Will 21 27.05 52.38% -0.441 -0.1873 -0.225
Intensifying Exploitation 1 21.0 0.0% -0.139
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 17.0 100.0% 0.586
Memory Fades to Dust 42 29.95 61.9% -0.326 -0.0468 -0.233
Power Corrodes the Spirit 21 36.67 66.67% -0.359 -0.0877 0.436
Promising Farmlands 20 34.15 45.0% -0.154 0.1386 -0.704
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 13.0 75.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.169
The Border of Life and Death 3 18.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 17 32.88 82.35% 0.196
Thriving Crops 4 23.75 25.0% -0.708
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.313
Unnatural Proliferation 29 35.59 62.07% -0.35 -0.2594 -0.257
Untended Land Crumbles 11 21.91 45.45% 0.515

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 438 35.63% 33.1 77.17% 0.717 1.8658 0.207
B 468 39.52% 34.14 78.21% 0.001 1.0693 -0.214
C 531 35.83% 29.68 71.75% -0.14 0.779 -0.134
D 467 34.16% 26.69 69.59% 0.363 1.4264 -0.618
E 286 32.16% 26.77 65.03% -0.031 0.9232 0.423
F 313 44.16% 36.89 77.96% -0.386 0.6167 0.549
G 244 40.57% 34.42 78.28% 0.148 1.1163 -0.317
H 269 35.45% 33.56 75.84% -0.663 0.295 0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 75 27.45% 24.65 85.33% 0.631 0.9529
Skip Initial Invader Actions 51 12.12% 35.22 92.16% 0.649
Start of Game Growth 55 15.79% 37.4 94.55% 0.649
Unlimited Undo 97 34.18% 28.62 79.38% -0.277 -0.4895 -0.229
Using Tokens but Not Events 67 28.13% 26.61 86.57% 0.18 0.0967 0.563

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 160 12.75 11.88%
II 309 30.01 70.55%
III 374 34.87 93.05%
IV 161 38.76 98.76%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 343
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 207
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 158
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 101
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 90
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)