Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 22.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 75.0% 40.25 -1.137 75.0% -0.343 0.7033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 39.43 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 17 56.25% 25.29 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 21 23.81% 32.29 0.51 100.0% 0.113 -0.1043
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29 37.93% 42.1 -0.128 96.55% 0.042 0.2543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 20 35.0% 46.9 3.416 90.0% 0.171 0.6681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 18.18% 50.27 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 15.38% 25.69 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 33.33% 32.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 39.1 90.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 68.75% 46.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 56.25% 35.13 -1.137 43.75% -0.343 1.2749
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 53.23 61.54%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 -0.972 93.33% 0.187 0.9894
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 12 58.33% 27.83 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 3.914 77.78% 0.052 2.3225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 45.45% 49.73 3.911 72.73% 0.052 2.3837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 78 44.87% 66.9 84.62%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 18.0 -2.431 0.0% -0.422 0.87
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 24.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14 35.71% 28.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 44.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5 60.0% 40.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 4.146 68.18% 0.063 1.2822
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 43.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 75.0% 35.0 50.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.422 -0.1552 -0.433
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 63.33 100.0% -0.366
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 11.32% 61.87 86.79% 1.262
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 25.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 33.33% 41.78 77.78% -0.068
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.385
Second Wave 0 26 57.69% 23.58 76.92% -0.115 0.3559
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.452

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 23 40.09 60.87% -0.141 1.6907 -0.28
Aid From Lesser Spirits 23 32.87 73.91% -0.422 1.2321 0.12
All Things Weaken 11 38.73 72.73% -0.343 1.6333 -0.12
Back Against the Wall 22 36.86 63.64% 0.131 1.9897 -0.456
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.82 45.45% 0.063 2.0372 -0.809
Downward Spiral 25 30.88 72.0% 0.269 2.1711 -0.366
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% 0.139 2.1825 -0.433
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.87 56.67% -0.247
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.0 77.78% 0.259
Promising Farmlands 15 39.67 60.0% -0.079
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.155 0.5958 0.131
Thriving Communities 7 41.57 85.71% 0.225
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.204
Unnatural Proliferation 16 31.75 68.75% -0.299 1.6069 -0.28
Untended Land Crumbles 6 27.67 66.67% 0.132

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 292 37.99% 37.96 82.88% -0.553 0.2154 -0.16
B 299 42.07% 38.22 83.28% 0.429 1.1217 -0.529
C 311 41.36% 36.13 85.53% -0.013 0.5511 0.141
D 245 43.48% 32.29 81.22% -0.411 0.3569 -0.3
E 106 39.81% 35.46 84.91% 0.35 0.9488 0.473
F 193 41.58% 42.81 84.97% 0.18 0.8892 0.848
G 151 40.4% 37.35 80.13% 0.091 0.8168 -0.249
H 171 33.53% 36.85 81.87% -0.062 0.6286 -0.208

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 27.85 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 54 30.56% 27.11 92.59%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43 14.29% 31.63 95.35%
Start of Game Growth 39 20.0% 35.62 97.44%
Unlimited Undo 68 32.08% 31.97 86.76% -0.049
Using Tokens but Not Events 45 30.23% 27.16 93.33% 0.067 0.0211 -0.385

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 52 22.6 36.54%
II 205 31.02 75.61%
III 247 34.59 93.52%
IV 86 37.83 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 226
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 149
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 85
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 32
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 57
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)