Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 80.0% 13.6 13.36 0.0% 0.163 2.08
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 31.67 88.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 16.67% 32.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 60.0% 29.2 -4.415 50.0% -0.341 0.6046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 50.0% 41.67 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 27 42.31% 26.37 85.19%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 28 21.43% 33.89 2.716 100.0% 0.67 0.6363
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 34 35.29% 40.62 7.565 91.18% 0.418 0.4315
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 34 23.53% 35.35 -1.997 67.65% -0.184 0.0582
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 51.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 22.73% 23.45 2.245 72.73% 0.317 0.6268
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 33.33% 30.54 76.92%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 24 62.5% 28.46 1.067 54.17% -0.196 0.2831
The Kingdom of England 3 6 34 58.82% 36.09 52.94%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21 61.9% 40.0 6.886 57.14% 0.284 1.2836
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 12.827 50.0% 0.089 1.5995
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17 64.71% 26.88 -2.103 76.47% 0.114 0.9911
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 61.11% 44.22 -1.519 66.67% -0.175 0.9652
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84 44.05% 66.73 -11.671 83.33% -0.539 0.8537
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 45.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 20.0% 25.2 90.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 28.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23 39.13% 29.91 78.26%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 37.0 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 26 65.38% 43.85 10.834 61.54% 0.196 1.092
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 83.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 41.4 2.791 100.0% 0.123 0.4911
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 71.43% 22.0 42.86% -0.474
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 62.78 77.78% -0.146 -0.3949 -0.119
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 12.73% 60.22 85.45% 1.291
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 100.0% 29.2 80.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.087
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0% -0.531
Second Wave 0 38 47.37% 22.58 71.05%
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 28.55 45.45% -0.337

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 31 41.81 70.97% 0.284 0.5334 -0.099
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 30.94 66.67% 0.188
All Things Weaken 19 30.21 63.16% -0.477 -0.1395 -0.081
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 27 36.15 70.37% -0.237
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 34.25 75.0% 0.396
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 14.5 50.0% 0.163 0.1442 0.399
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -1.094
Downward Spiral 35 28.69 60.0% 0.305 0.4136 -0.226
Erosion of Will 21 27.05 52.38% -0.286 0.0661 -0.206
Intensifying Exploitation 1 21.0 0.0% -0.189
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 17.0 100.0% 0.324 -0.2 0.454
Memory Fades to Dust 41 30.12 60.98% -0.317 -0.0692 -0.262
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 38.84 73.68% 0.453
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.639
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 13.0 75.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.139
The Border of Life and Death 3 18.0 0.0% -0.394 -0.9945
Thriving Communities 16 31.88 81.25% 0.157
Thriving Crops 4 23.75 25.0% -0.765
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.206
Unnatural Proliferation 27 36.44 66.67% -0.422
Untended Land Crumbles 11 21.91 45.45% 0.518

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 414 36.78% 33.29 76.09% 0.481 1.4856 0.058
B 440 40.23% 34.66 78.41% 0.138 1.0576 -0.333
C 520 36.22% 29.81 72.12% -0.621 0.1134 -0.055
D 436 35.99% 26.76 68.58% -0.778 0.2002 -0.336
E 270 32.96% 26.22 63.7% -0.531 0.2887 0.193
F 300 44.41% 37.36 78.67% 0.064 0.9378 0.695
G 226 41.59% 34.85 78.32% 1.082 1.8908 -0.236
H 260 35.52% 33.85 76.54% 0.178 0.9928 0.028

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 24.56 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 67 30.23% 24.67 85.07% -0.284 0.0842
Skip Initial Invader Actions 51 12.12% 35.22 92.16% 0.598
Start of Game Growth 55 15.79% 37.4 94.55% 0.598
Unlimited Undo 93 33.33% 27.78 78.49% -0.341 -0.4506 -0.155
Using Tokens but Not Events 65 29.03% 26.14 86.15% 0.354 0.328 0.428

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 155 13.33 12.26%
II 295 30.1 70.85%
III 353 34.83 92.92%
IV 151 38.67 98.68%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 323
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 199
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 148
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 96
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 55
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 85
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)