Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 100.0% 36.0 6.576 100.0% 0.449 0.8322
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 20.0% 32.8 1.939 80.0% 0.198 0.5246
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 6.885 80.0% 0.171 0.953
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 36.0 -1.393 33.33% -0.343 1.7155
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 25 41.67% 27.2 0.927 88.0% 0.384 0.6057
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 2.509 100.0% 0.157 0.2639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 31 38.71% 41.1 -5.829 93.55% -0.213 -0.0916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 47.48 9.942 91.3% 0.164 0.3669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 16 18.75% 55.56 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 18.75% 24.0 81.25%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 36.36% 33.08 3.721 83.33% 0.276 0.5517
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11 36.36% 35.55 81.82%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 57.69% 40.62 61.54%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 13.33% 31.53 93.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 57.14% 29.07 6.942 78.57% 0.178 0.8384
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 42.67 77.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 15 60.0% 49.87 -0.477 73.33% -0.422 0.9479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 -5.394 42.86% -0.299 1.1475
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 26.33 -0.477 33.33% -0.422 0.0163
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 35.0% 29.65 2.426 75.0% 0.278 0.4575
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 33.33% 40.17 -1.194 83.33% -0.297 0.0274
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 -2.055 57.14% -0.527 0.1738
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 63.64% 46.68 68.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 25.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 -6.562 12.5% -1.051 0.0487
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.06 -0.0164
Blitz 0 6 83.33% 22.0 50.0% -0.448
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 67.75 87.5% -0.213 -0.4363 -0.112
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.411
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% 0.449 0.3012 -0.054
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.491
Second Wave 0 34 52.94% 22.26 70.59% 0.12 0.227
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 34.89 55.56% -0.303

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 40.11 66.67% -0.078
Aid From Lesser Spirits 30 31.5 66.67% -0.078 -0.0869 0.182
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.089
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.318
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 27.5 42.86% -0.343 0.0452 -1.16
Downward Spiral 30 29.67 63.33% -0.219
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.448
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 17.5 100.0% 0.306 -0.2555 0.19
Memory Fades to Dust 33 31.09 60.61% -0.221
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 40.61 77.78% 0.207 0.5164 0.481
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.763
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67% -0.299 0.1529
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.138
Thriving Communities 14 34.86 92.86% 0.361
Thriving Crops 2 47.5 50.0% -0.486
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.169
Unnatural Proliferation 21 37.29 71.43% -0.422 -0.2346 -0.396
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.441

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 360 36.81% 34.91 78.89% -0.113 0.7817 0.032
B 373 42.15% 36.01 80.43% 0.205 1.0273 -0.519
C 442 34.68% 31.3 75.34% 0.334 1.0034 0.108
D 375 36.06% 27.41 69.6% -0.605 0.2234 -0.049
E 215 30.66% 27.34 64.65% -0.342 0.3512 -0.027
F 260 42.35% 39.74 83.85% 0.317 1.0951 0.707
G 191 41.88% 36.09 79.58% -0.082 0.682 -0.27
H 223 36.04% 35.74 80.27% 0.296 1.0538 0.035

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 25.16 88.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 29.27% 25.19 85.71%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 13.33% 34.46 93.75% 0.539
Start of Game Growth 49 18.75% 37.73 95.92% 0.539
Unlimited Undo 82 32.81% 29.7 84.15% -0.16 -0.122 0.008
Using Tokens but Not Events 54 29.41% 26.28 87.04% 0.157 0.1238 0.123

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 116 16.17 16.38%
II 254 30.54 72.83%
III 313 34.77 92.33%
IV 129 38.39 99.22%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 284
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 127
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 61
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 74
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-16 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)