Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 -1.742 100.0% 0.066 0.4796
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 43.2 3.976 80.0% -0.158 1.0836
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 22.0 -2.948 0.0% -0.434 1.063
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 -5.168 0.0% -0.813 1.1264
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 64.0 15.793 100.0% 0.055 2.0979
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 15 64.29% 24.07 -3.718 86.67% 0.305 0.3459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 32.06 -0.521 100.0% 1.077 1.059
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 26 30.77% 42.58 4.417 96.15% 1.102 1.1156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 29.41% 46.88 6.647 88.24% 0.125 0.4085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 22.22% 48.56 6.243 88.89% -0.018 0.3417
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 9.762 66.67% -0.269 0.5554
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 8.098 71.43% -0.244 0.9948
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 20.0% 24.9 -4.605 90.0% 0.395 0.7246
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 33.33% 33.17 -1.355 66.67% -0.623 -0.1061
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9 44.44% 36.89 0.92 88.89% 0.509 1.4828
The Kingdom of England 3 6 12 66.67% 44.08 4.27 75.0% -0.451 1.1284
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 50.0% 37.29 1.467 50.0% -1.258 0.2364
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 5.298 50.0% -0.371 1.6991
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 36.36% 49.18 7.156 54.55% -1.012 1.2315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 11 9.09% 31.73 -1.198 90.91% 0.338 0.8495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 11 54.55% 27.73 -2.461 72.73% -0.176 0.7269
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 41.88 2.737 75.0% -0.33 1.8111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 50.0% 49.38 8.198 75.0% -0.114 2.0849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.17 3.802 50.0% -0.703 1.4576
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 23.5 -2.485 0.0% -0.751 1.0668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 73 42.47% 66.6 11.546 83.56% 0.257 2.3485
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 30.5 -0.39 100.0% 0.221 0.3095
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 100.0% 25.0 -5.836 100.0% 0.087 0.1217
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 36.36% 27.82 -3.3 54.55% -0.744 -0.507
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 54.0 9.486 100.0% 0.192 0.4824
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 50.0% 45.5 5.59 100.0% 0.288 1.0692
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 4 50.0% 38.0 2.157 50.0% -0.727 0.4417
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 70.59% 43.0 4.315 58.82% -0.641 0.481
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -5.761 100.0% 0.105 0.016
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 -1.656 100.0% 0.32 1.0989
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 43.67 3.316 100.0% 0.26 0.6718
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 45.25 4.368 75.0% -0.296 0.9478
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3 100.0% 29.0 -2.493 33.33% -0.829 0.2787

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 9 66.67% 23.22 -5.053 55.56% -0.604 -0.0386
Dahan Insurrection 4 4 25.0% 57.0 11.935 100.0% 0.434 0.8338
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 12.73% 61.04 7.008 83.64% -0.201 0.1637
Rituals of Terror 3 7 42.86% 41.71 2.993 71.43% -0.081 0.5641
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.549 0.0% -0.498 0.1492
Second Wave 0 25 52.0% 31.84 -0.817 84.0% -0.156 0.2739
Ward the Shores 2 10 40.0% 35.4 -0.694 60.0% -0.432 0.5993

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 19 42.21 0.152 63.16% -0.939 1.1304
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 33.67 -2.221 76.19% -0.625 1.2881
All Things Weaken 7 42.43 0.607 85.71% -0.058 2.1017
Back Against the Wall 21 37.33 -1.652 61.9% -1.155 0.9325
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10 28.7 -4.645 40.0% -1.365 0.8569
Downward Spiral 20 27.35 -2.723 65.0% -1.13 0.8921
Erosion of Will 15 29.47 -4.797 53.33% -1.297 0.9108
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 18.5 -6.926 100.0% 0.148 0.8268
Memory Fades to Dust 21 29.48 -2.961 52.38% -1.595 0.6195
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 42.4 0.123 60.0% -0.73 1.291
Promising Farmlands 14 38.86 -1.858 57.14% -0.784 1.4243
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 2.879 100.0% 0.134 0.5456
Thriving Communities 5 43.0 -0.817 80.0% -0.196 1.8918
Tipping Point 6 26.5 -5.101 50.0% -1.076 1.1483
Unnatural Proliferation 11 30.0 -3.155 72.73% -0.433 1.6477
Untended Land Crumbles 5 27.8 -4.221 60.0% -0.804 1.2978

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 237 38.2% 39.35 0.614 81.86% -0.097 -0.7848
B 245 40.5% 38.34 0.189 81.22% -0.057 -0.8405
C 255 40.32% 36.35 -0.291 85.1% 0.333 -0.6799
D 180 43.1% 32.22 -1.801 77.78% -0.25 -1.0273
E 79 43.42% 37.05 0.056 82.28% 0.091 -0.803
F 162 38.36% 43.57 2.106 85.8% 0.384 -0.4565
G 118 39.83% 39.01 -0.204 76.27% -0.232 -1.0645
H 149 33.11% 37.74 -0.686 80.54% -0.147 -0.9856

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 26.0 -1.568 100.0% 0.278 2.3305
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 29.63% 25.35 -3.223 88.24% 0.259 0.4742
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 30.77% 32.44 0.848 94.44% 0.148 -0.5381
Start of Game Growth 24 26.32% 33.0 0.762 95.83% 0.525 0.0563
Unlimited Undo 41 45.71% 35.34 1.148 82.93% 0.071 -0.3524
Using Tokens but Not Events 38 33.33% 28.05 -3.38 92.11% 0.741 0.6904

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33 22.37 15.15%
II 180 30.88 74.44%
III 194 34.39 93.3%
IV 68 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 144
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 110
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 54
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 49
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)