Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 83.33% 36.5 3.926 100.0% 0.326 0.6922
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 20.0% 32.8 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 38.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 62.5% 36.5 62.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 7.33 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 22.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 36.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 26 44.0% 26.15 -7.791 84.62% -0.374 -0.1591
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24 20.83% 34.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 32 37.5% 39.81 -9.703 90.63% -0.416 -0.3406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 47.48 91.3%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 17 17.65% 55.71 8.882 88.24% 0.31 0.7004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 51.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 85.71% 50.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 18 22.22% 23.39 -1.874 72.22% -0.395 0.0178
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 33.33% 30.54 -10.426 76.92% -0.22 0.06
The Kingdom of England 2 4 16 56.25% 31.81 0.05 68.75% -0.129 0.4503
The Kingdom of England 3 6 29 55.17% 37.72 -1.448 55.17% -0.279 0.8748
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 55.56% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 50.0% 46.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16 12.5% 29.56 -6.02 87.5% -0.172 0.2925
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 57.14% 29.07 78.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.2 10.112 80.0% 0.379 1.3655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 16 56.25% 46.75 -6.436 68.75% -0.144 1.2164
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 35.29 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 32.5 0.37 25.0% -0.142 0.8363
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82 43.9% 67.44 84.15%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 0.0% 20.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 100.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 37.5 7.008 66.67% 0.472 0.8602
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 40.0% 36.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 30.0 6.34 0.0% -0.018 1.0343
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 12.5% 25.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 40.0% 27.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 35.0% 29.65 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 37.0 3.266 84.62% 0.734 1.1102
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 85.71% 32.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 40.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 25 68.0% 42.88 -1.112 60.0% -0.251 0.6935
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 3.926 83.33% 0.326 0.3901
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 48 12.5% 8.46 12.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 66.67% 31.67 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 71.43% 22.0 42.86% -0.142 0.1447 -0.434
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 67.75 87.5% -0.122
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 17.5 50.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 11.11% 60.72 85.19% 1.395
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 25.33 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 11 45.45% 42.91 81.82% -0.058
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0% -0.48
Second Wave 0 34 52.94% 22.26 70.59%
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 13.33 33.33% -0.416 0.463
Ward the Shores 2 10 50.0% 31.4 50.0% -0.374 0.608 -0.311

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 40.11 66.67% -0.07
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 30.94 66.67% -0.025 -0.1696 0.194
All Things Weaken 16 35.88 75.0% -0.08
Attenuated Essence 1 26.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 25 34.72 68.0% -0.325
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 39.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.47 40.0% -0.248 0.1277 -1.167
Downward Spiral 33 28.33 57.58% -0.251 -0.1788 -0.241
Erosion of Will 17 27.59 52.94% -0.434
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 17.5 100.0% 0.162
Memory Fades to Dust 36 31.67 63.89% 0.564 0.7465 -0.209
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 38.84 73.68% -0.245 -0.0323 0.477
Promising Farmlands 19 35.95 47.37% -0.77
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.67 66.67%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 39.29 100.0% 0.134
Thriving Communities 14 34.86 92.86% 0.363
Thriving Crops 3 31.67 33.33% -0.374 -0.3721 -0.47
Tipping Point 6 26.5 50.0% 0.173
Unnatural Proliferation 26 36.88 69.23% 0.591 0.7774 -0.357
Untended Land Crumbles 7 28.43 71.43% 0.418

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 373 37.15% 34.35 77.21% 0.015 0.8778 0.057
B 386 41.49% 35.61 79.53% 0.252 1.0728 -0.498
C 458 35.01% 30.92 74.24% 0.155 0.8526 0.081
D 386 36.34% 27.37 68.91% -0.308 0.5487 -0.091
E 231 33.33% 27.33 64.07% 0.316 1.0047 -0.006
F 276 42.8% 38.71 81.16% -0.495 0.3228 0.706
G 199 42.71% 35.75 78.39% -0.359 0.5216 -0.333
H 238 36.29% 35.12 78.99% 0.414 1.1941 0.099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 25.16 88.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 29.27% 25.19 85.71%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 13.33% 34.46 93.75% 0.539
Start of Game Growth 49 18.75% 37.73 95.92% 0.539
Unlimited Undo 87 33.33% 29.15 81.61% -0.15 -0.1273 0.01
Using Tokens but Not Events 56 32.08% 25.88 83.93% -0.333 -0.285 0.101

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 131 15.45 14.5%
II 260 30.45 71.92%
III 325 34.8 92.62%
IV 132 38.47 99.24%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 296
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 177
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 130
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 69
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 49
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 80
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)