Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 416 43.8% 28.15 -2.024 69.95% -0.541 0.0316
Dahan Insurrection 4 827 20.93% 48.79 9.013 84.64% -0.031 0.3696
Elemental Invocation 1 22 40.91% 27.64 -2.127 59.09% -1.208 -0.7431
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3765 16.03% 42.26 4.172 78.51% -0.166 0.2088
Powers Long Forgotten 1 210 60.0% 29.85 -0.283 68.1% -0.556 -0.1091
Rituals of Terror 3 174 38.67% 40.13 4.593 84.48% -0.032 0.5899
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 137 73.13% 33.66 2.163 64.23% -0.495 0.1298
Second Wave 0 1943 47.46% 29.98 -0.765 75.91% -0.629 -0.21
Ward the Shores 2 313 40.85% 33.21 1.07 71.25% -0.851 0.1791

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1255 30.91 -1.819 54.58% -1.787 0.2807
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1415 33.61 -0.345 61.84% -1.452 0.4644
All Things Weaken 440 30.17 -2.019 52.05% -1.89 0.2698
Back Against the Wall 1297 31.52 -1.546 53.05% -1.857 0.2348
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1173 29.06 -2.678 54.22% -1.751 0.4703
Downward Spiral 2953 28.2 -2.344 61.36% -1.681 0.3328
Erosion of Will 1212 29.7 -2.276 52.31% -1.91 0.3009
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 213 36.1 0.974 78.4% -0.539 0.173
Memory Fades to Dust 2986 27.98 -2.525 58.81% -1.784 0.4316
Power Corrodes the Spirit 445 29.53 -2.296 55.06% -1.801 0.2186
Promising Farmlands 1322 28.56 -2.971 52.12% -1.937 0.2775
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 130 36.01 1.118 87.69% -0.116 0.3011
Thriving Communities 480 28.66 -2.539 55.63% -1.889 0.2175
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.599 52.1% -1.835 0.3806
Unnatural Proliferation 500 30.85 -1.322 60.0% -1.569 0.511
Untended Land Crumbles 453 29.39 -2.226 54.97% -1.775 0.3202

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 16469 42.38% 31.36 -0.499 75.97% -0.079 -1.1521
B 15735 43.43% 31.18 -0.438 75.84% -0.081 -1.2451
C 16561 41.27% 32.46 0.261 77.22% 0.077 -1.32
D 14897 41.92% 31.07 -0.519 76.68% -0.074 -1.2317
E 3279 42.96% 32.2 -0.186 77.22% -0.002 -1.2592
F 5606 41.29% 32.93 -0.051 76.56% -0.059 -1.2849
G 5584 40.74% 36.03 1.167 77.56% 0.094 -1.1182
H 5791 39.49% 36.69 1.368 78.86% 0.151 -1.0708

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1545 0.0% 20.21 -5.292 72.69% -2.207 -0.1683
Not Using Events or Tokens 6256 41.24% 25.43 -2.64 78.84% -0.251 -0.031
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1853 14.1% 41.33 3.394 92.12% 0.826 0.1202
Start of Game Growth 2387 14.32% 40.77 3.188 91.71% 0.548 0.0891
Unlimited Undo 5098 33.75% 35.19 1.082 83.88% 0.37 -0.0328
Using Tokens but Not Events 7522 28.81% 32.95 -0.175 84.33% 0.177 0.1308

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5554 22.34 26.07%
II 16387 30.71 74.11%
III 14088 34.23 90.08%
IV 5932 37.48 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1065
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9269
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 8515
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4260
Lose: Invader deck ran out 373
Lose: Adversary condition 3160
Win: Sacrifice victory 86
Lose: Scenario condition 648
Win: Scenario condition 921
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5262
Lose: Spirit destroyed 328

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)