Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 209 28.85% 29.53 -0.179 89.95% -0.253 0.0251
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 194 39.38% 32.55 1.662 86.6% -0.339 0.0546
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 277 59.57% 37.53 4.279 77.26% -0.769 0.1087
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 325 64.62% 35.99 3.614 62.15% -1.505 -0.2539
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 254 83.79% 34.48 3.522 41.73% -1.995 -0.4736
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 80 87.5% 38.86 5.525 43.75% -1.776 0.2007
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 447 84.75% 31.99 2.399 21.48% -3.021 -0.971
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1344 30.72% 25.76 -1.736 90.63% 0.054 0.0942
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1307 35.04% 30.29 0.649 91.51% 0.31 0.281
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1905 38.74% 38.83 4.815 89.19% 0.017 0.0218
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1751 45.69% 45.25 7.878 86.18% -0.248 0.0406
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1020 46.63% 46.66 8.705 82.55% -0.528 -0.1604
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 679 62.39% 50.42 10.802 72.61% -0.914 -0.0846
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1816 67.55% 49.7 9.765 62.17% -1.507 -0.2653
The Kingdom of England 0 1 966 28.59% 25.5 -1.922 89.34% -0.158 0.1746
The Kingdom of England 1 3 812 38.95% 33.27 1.974 82.39% -0.518 -0.0137
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1156 48.4% 33.11 1.895 70.16% -1.26 -0.2916
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1175 60.34% 34.96 2.851 53.62% -1.97 -0.3919
The Kingdom of England 4 7 972 59.6% 39.01 4.744 52.67% -2.019 -0.5211
The Kingdom of England 5 9 394 69.05% 39.71 5.098 40.1% -2.539 -0.4721
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2104 51.72% 47.51 8.295 46.25% -2.854 -0.5991
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 568 41.27% 29.21 -0.143 86.27% -0.244 0.2712
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 432 55.71% 30.22 0.407 74.77% -0.882 0.0135
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1064 49.2% 32.52 1.643 50.47% -2.246 -0.1088
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 921 53.04% 39.77 4.997 52.66% -2.197 -0.0114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 645 52.87% 42.18 6.397 49.92% -2.285 -0.1383
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 319 62.38% 45.95 8.085 49.53% -2.228 -0.4074
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1367 58.02% 46.8 8.578 42.94% -2.597 -0.4902
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 576 32.2% 24.08 -2.583 88.37% -0.136 -0.0514
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 569 33.98% 29.18 -0.041 87.52% -0.153 -0.1321
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 776 41.71% 32.48 1.504 86.21% -0.202 0.0297
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 866 57.87% 40.25 5.557 83.49% -0.261 0.0253
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 523 66.73% 38.58 4.718 70.17% -0.986 -0.209
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 253 65.48% 40.46 5.671 63.64% -1.285 -0.1282
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1205 63.7% 43.4 6.983 62.41% -1.461 -0.3297
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 146 19.18% 26.34 -1.896 97.26% 0.668 0.562
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 142 45.77% 31.95 1.271 82.39% -0.654 0.0886
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 130 48.84% 37.88 4.051 86.15% -0.329 0.1021
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 174 64.74% 40.45 5.506 68.39% -1.289 -0.0398
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 121 62.81% 46.06 8.297 74.38% -1.009 0.1173
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 60 80.0% 41.92 6.264 40.0% -2.271 -0.252
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 318 87.74% 40.56 5.65 26.42% -2.903 -0.9975

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 468 43.62% 27.74 -2.157 69.87% -0.622 -0.0485
Dahan Insurrection 4 981 22.14% 48.76 9.095 82.77% -0.051 0.3491
Despicable Theft 2 46 43.48% 37.04 2.279 71.74% -0.666 -0.3831
Elemental Invocation 1 79 51.9% 27.27 -2.099 59.49% -0.917 -0.4773
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4172 15.96% 42.0 4.157 79.03% -0.166 0.1994
Powers Long Forgotten 1 234 58.08% 29.85 -0.3 68.38% -0.585 -0.1439
Rituals of Terror 3 201 36.16% 39.92 4.614 84.58% -0.098 0.546
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 152 71.14% 33.07 1.904 64.47% -0.605 0.0367
Second Wave 0 2381 44.17% 29.59 -1.054 77.45% -0.675 -0.2466
Ward the Shores 2 350 42.98% 32.75 0.869 70.29% -0.935 0.1018

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1441 31.05 -1.711 54.96% -1.779 0.2947
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1613 33.38 -0.42 60.57% -1.516 0.4035
All Things Weaken 592 30.8 -1.665 54.39% -1.802 0.3569
Back Against the Wall 1482 31.66 -1.412 53.24% -1.832 0.2623
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1334 29.22 -2.52 55.4% -1.711 0.513
Downward Spiral 3319 28.3 -2.261 61.89% -1.663 0.3579
Erosion of Will 1373 29.99 -2.13 52.88% -1.898 0.3106
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 305 36.01 1.018 79.02% -0.507 0.1855
Memory Fades to Dust 3381 28.06 -2.475 58.62% -1.798 0.4201
Power Corrodes the Spirit 602 29.48 -2.256 55.48% -1.814 0.2072
Promising Farmlands 1507 28.9 -2.761 53.22% -1.899 0.315
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 195 35.64 1.12 87.69% -0.064 0.3471
Thriving Communities 646 29.06 -2.376 55.57% -1.886 0.2074
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.562 52.1% -1.842 0.3836
Unnatural Proliferation 676 30.54 -1.457 58.73% -1.669 0.4204
Untended Land Crumbles 635 29.56 -2.159 54.33% -1.814 0.292

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 18950 42.4% 31.3 -0.468 76.21% -0.086 -1.1983
B 18155 43.25% 31.14 -0.409 76.17% -0.083 -1.2905
C 19044 41.01% 32.36 0.23 77.7% 0.07 -1.3693
D 16891 42.01% 31.1 -0.434 77.15% -0.06 -1.262
E 4624 41.56% 32.15 -0.158 78.09% -0.004 -1.3167
F 6933 41.22% 32.67 -0.079 76.88% -0.061 -1.3271
G 6729 40.85% 35.34 0.991 78.17% 0.091 -1.1657
H 6882 39.45% 36.19 1.29 79.56% 0.16 -1.1059

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1791 0.0% 20.48 -5.043 74.32% -2.183 -0.1284
Not Using Events or Tokens 7116 41.48% 25.65 -2.495 79.09% -0.239 -0.0217
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2254 13.2% 39.18 2.845 92.95% 0.826 0.1326
Start of Game Growth 2914 13.83% 38.6 2.569 92.45% 0.521 0.0578
Unlimited Undo 6364 32.23% 34.88 1.143 85.43% 0.429 0.0083
Using Tokens but Not Events 8764 27.73% 32.61 -0.205 85.14% 0.17 0.118

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6337 22.34 26.38%
II 19024 30.81 74.23%
III 16626 34.31 90.32%
IV 7117 37.5 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1288
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11532
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10415
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5417
Lose: Invader deck ran out 424
Lose: Adversary condition 3606
Win: Sacrifice victory 106
Lose: Scenario condition 717
Win: Scenario condition 1056
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6091
Lose: Spirit destroyed 378

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)