Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 142 22.54% 24.64 92.96% 0.656 0.467
Blitz 0 607 43.18% 29.71 66.23% -0.116 0.0675 -0.615
Dahan Insurrection 4 1404 35.26% 51.42 67.17% 1.151 0.8371 -0.072
Despicable Theft 2 129 51.16% 34.74 65.12% -0.224 0.5207 -0.544
Elemental Invocation 1 180 61.67% 30.24 58.89% 0.623 1.3946 -0.541
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5106 15.28% 42.6 78.07% 0.642 0.0208 0.318
Powers Long Forgotten 1 207 52.71% 29.54 76.33% 0.49 1.0318 -0.331
Rituals of Terror 3 200 37.23% 39.97 85.0% 0.844 0.9508 0.909
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 133 66.92% 33.57 68.42% 0.293 1.2643 0.445
Second Wave 0 2817 35.58% 29.73 81.82% 0.593 0.661 -0.408
Varied Terrains 2 67 47.76% 30.61 59.7% -0.322 0.2522 -0.478
Ward the Shores 2 318 43.41% 32.81 68.55% -0.67 0.4634 -0.089

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2077 31.5 55.46% 0.028 0.2263 -0.518
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2249 33.64 59.32% 0.219 0.1524 -0.18
All Things Weaken 1230 30.81 50.57% -0.958 -0.5905 -0.756
Attenuated Essence 57 28.53 45.61% -0.116 -0.0451 -0.628
Back Against the Wall 2127 32.41 53.83% -0.209 -0.1405 -0.534
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 30.77 52.08% 0.558 0.815 0.138
Burn Brightest Before the End 47 32.06 53.19% 0.174 0.3491 -0.431
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1956 29.99 54.04% -0.189 0.2495 -0.516
Downward Spiral 4601 28.1 60.62% 0.009 0.2555 -0.555
Erosion of Will 2053 30.28 51.68% 0.457 0.7743 -0.788
Intensifying Exploitation 38 28.11 50.0% -0.191 0.0786 -0.485
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 583 36.1 78.22% 0.867 0.3579 0.308
Memory Fades to Dust 4670 28.09 57.52% -0.133 0.2312 -0.726
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1215 30.33 55.72% 0.233 0.4696 -0.439
Promising Farmlands 2161 29.37 52.98% 0.434 0.894 -0.694
Shattered Fragments of Power 53 31.09 45.28% -0.163 -0.1079 -0.222
Slow Dissolution of Will 62 30.06 51.61% -0.177 0.2307 -0.458
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 372 36.51 83.87% 0.859 0.2166 0.46
The Border of Life and Death 20 29.95 45.0% -0.015 -0.4022 -0.096
Thriving Communities 1273 29.66 52.32% -0.271 0.086 -0.756
Thriving Crops 17 34.0 64.71% 0.689 0.574 -0.003
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.54
Unnatural Proliferation 1393 32.17 55.71% -0.186 -0.0132 -0.646
Untended Land Crumbles 1322 29.54 52.27% -0.258 -0.0099 -0.733

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 28024 42.65% 31.04 74.34% -0.291 0.5418 -0.225
B 27206 42.78% 30.96 74.33% -0.128 0.6719 -0.037
C 28206 40.38% 32.11 76.78% 0.175 0.8316 0.102
D 24217 41.9% 30.96 75.53% -0.027 0.767 -0.304
E 9488 41.69% 31.75 75.72% -0.023 0.6053 0.012
F 11447 41.86% 32.33 75.22% 0.158 0.871 -0.177
G 10676 41.25% 33.85 76.5% 0.15 0.8884 0.277
H 11011 40.39% 34.8 77.34% 0.011 0.6695 0.338

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2603 0.0% 19.97 71.72% -0.828 -0.0152 -0.516
Not Using Events or Tokens 10160 40.47% 24.93 77.26% -0.084 0.2521 0.182
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3200 12.8% 40.46 90.66% 0.419 -0.2138 1.696
Start of Game Growth 4629 12.76% 38.38 91.25% 1.291 1.0014 -0.25
Unlimited Undo 10404 29.73% 33.94 84.8% -0.25 -0.2473 0.858
Using Tokens but Not Events 12415 28.2% 31.87 83.5% 0.212 0.138 -0.08

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10776 20.63 22.79%
II 28566 31.02 73.39%
III 25225 34.75 90.39%
IV 10590 38.05 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2455
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22306
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19925
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10448
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1342
Lose: Invader deck ran out 614
Lose: Adversary condition 5535
Win: Sacrifice victory 176
Lose: Scenario condition 1078
Win: Scenario condition 1448
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9264
Lose: Spirit destroyed 566

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)