Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 88 23.86% 25.53 93.18% 0.684 0.777
Blitz 0 515 45.14% 27.5 66.41% -0.232 0.0115 -1.269
Dahan Insurrection 4 1226 34.72% 51.04 69.0% -0.007 0.2775 -0.141
Despicable Theft 2 111 54.05% 36.04 64.86% -0.017 0.1984 -0.556
Elemental Invocation 1 155 60.65% 29.47 56.77% -0.5 0.104 -0.69
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4537 15.52% 42.24 78.91% 0.084 0.2576 0.382
Powers Long Forgotten 1 183 52.51% 29.64 75.96% 0.023 0.316 -0.461
Rituals of Terror 3 184 37.79% 40.09 85.87% -0.791 -0.8178 1.014
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 129 66.67% 33.7 68.22% 0.44 1.0176 0.505
Second Wave 0 2493 37.0% 29.44 81.47% -0.576 -0.1134 -0.286
Varied Terrains 2 25 48.0% 29.6 80.0% -0.543 0.0097
Ward the Shores 2 298 44.33% 32.24 67.79% 0.027 1.2176 -0.266

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1913 31.44 55.15% -1.475 0.3533 -0.662
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2068 33.66 59.72% -1.91 -0.2671 -0.251
All Things Weaken 1013 31.48 52.71% -1.518 0.4596 -0.804
Back Against the Wall 1922 32.11 53.17% -1.717 0.1346 -0.691
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1785 30.05 54.4% -1.149 0.8302 -0.612
Downward Spiral 4232 28.5 61.55% -1.486 0.414 -0.609
Erosion of Will 1852 30.19 51.62% -1.769 0.3122 -0.942
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 493 35.91 79.72% -0.453 0.0858 0.163
Memory Fades to Dust 4293 28.28 58.3% -1.844 0.1361 -0.875
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1019 30.07 55.45% -2.196 -0.3057 -0.698
Promising Farmlands 1964 29.49 53.21% -1.714 0.2951 -0.857
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 312 36.82 86.54% -0.31 0.135 0.635
Thriving Communities 1067 29.65 53.23% -1.712 0.2599 -0.942
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.642
Unnatural Proliferation 1151 32.29 57.52% -1.559 0.3333 -0.631
Untended Land Crumbles 1111 29.87 52.84% -1.857 0.1663 -0.81

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 24781 43.02% 31.58 75.95% -0.041 0.7333 -0.192
B 24077 43.27% 31.37 75.89% 0.121 0.8238 -0.019
C 25191 40.64% 32.45 77.89% 0.094 0.6593 0.089
D 21798 42.1% 31.3 76.72% -0.295 0.4707 -0.304
E 7827 42.14% 32.2 77.64% 0.045 0.6513 -0.041
F 9889 41.94% 32.58 76.64% 0.03 0.7362 -0.207
G 9302 41.54% 34.33 77.82% 0.003 0.7331 0.267
H 9645 40.29% 35.36 78.81% 0.066 0.7408 0.397

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2379 0.0% 20.42 73.22% -1.613 0.4042 -0.308
Not Using Events or Tokens 9210 41.07% 25.65 79.03% 0.487 0.7053 0.33
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2853 13.04% 39.13 92.6% 0.5 0.3888 1.341
Start of Game Growth 4098 13.12% 37.51 92.65% 0.75 0.0487 -0.652
Unlimited Undo 9297 29.68% 34.52 86.65% 0.749 0.0553 0.926
Using Tokens but Not Events 11028 27.71% 32.25 85.23% 0.045 -0.0124 -0.067

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8693 22.6 25.68%
II 25491 31.02 74.0%
III 22551 34.58 90.45%
IV 9543 37.82 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19937
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17911
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9415
Lose: Invader deck ran out 547
Lose: Adversary condition 4932
Win: Sacrifice victory 154
Lose: Scenario condition 976
Win: Scenario condition 1335
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8333
Lose: Spirit destroyed 507

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)