Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 125 22.4% 25.36 94.4% 0.95 0.7666
Blitz 0 571 43.75% 28.92 66.37% 0.134 0.4242 -0.865
Dahan Insurrection 4 1367 35.56% 51.22 66.79% 0.614 0.435 -0.223
Despicable Theft 2 121 52.07% 35.21 65.29% -0.4 0.2555 -0.547
Elemental Invocation 1 173 60.69% 30.36 58.38% 0.082 0.9081 -0.519
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4888 15.2% 42.72 78.93% 0.774 0.2744 0.324
Powers Long Forgotten 1 196 52.6% 30.09 77.04% 0.648 1.0574 -0.388
Rituals of Terror 3 192 38.89% 39.96 84.9% -0.225 -0.3412 0.915
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 131 66.41% 33.52 67.94% -0.278 0.4972 0.462
Second Wave 0 2692 36.56% 29.58 81.69% 0.431 0.5474 -0.408
Varied Terrains 2 52 50.0% 33.4 67.31% -0.785 -0.2926 -0.015
Ward the Shores 2 315 43.83% 32.89 69.21% 0.388 1.3015 -0.139

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2038 31.58 55.69% -0.054 0.6114 -0.581
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2213 33.73 59.56% -0.091 0.3726 -0.214
All Things Weaken 1157 31.54 52.2% -1.041 -0.2286 -0.767
Attenuated Essence 15 34.8 66.67% -0.174 0.4713 -0.192
Back Against the Wall 2081 32.52 53.96% -0.238 0.3089 -0.597
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16 30.44 43.75% -0.516 0.4035 -0.602
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 38.12 64.71% -0.075 0.7176 0.087
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1896 30.25 54.27% -0.517 0.3402 -0.577
Downward Spiral 4498 28.34 61.0% -0.368 0.3109 -0.597
Erosion of Will 1993 30.25 51.58% -0.365 0.4423 -0.94
Intensifying Exploitation 10 37.8 80.0% 0.466 1.4095 0.527
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 560 36.48 79.29% 1.096 0.8419 0.327
Memory Fades to Dust 4542 28.23 57.9% -0.755 0.0718 -0.789
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1147 30.32 55.88% -0.228 0.4102 -0.537
Promising Farmlands 2095 29.32 52.84% -0.446 0.4493 -0.825
Shattered Fragments of Power 16 34.0 43.75% -0.749 -0.1008 -0.348
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 38.69 53.85% -0.489 0.4933 -0.631
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 352 36.7 84.38% -0.046 -0.538 0.395
The Border of Life and Death 1 32.0 100.0% 0.063 0.2687
Thriving Communities 1213 29.88 53.09% -0.464 0.4172 -0.787
Thriving Crops 5 41.4 60.0% 0.332 0.8845 0.287
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.597
Unnatural Proliferation 1329 32.33 56.36% -0.711 -0.0445 -0.677
Untended Land Crumbles 1261 29.92 52.58% -0.83 -0.0981 -0.816

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26811 42.83% 31.47 75.49% -0.214 0.6906 -0.18
B 26096 43.12% 31.32 75.36% -0.073 0.7252 -0.043
C 27048 40.68% 32.42 77.52% 0.13 0.7798 0.058
D 23357 41.98% 31.25 76.28% 0.015 0.8658 -0.31
E 8906 41.94% 32.22 76.95% 0.071 0.7682 -0.031
F 10897 41.91% 32.65 76.09% 0.113 0.8833 -0.158
G 10204 41.58% 34.18 77.26% -0.11 0.6632 0.274
H 10559 40.41% 35.16 78.28% 0.092 0.8133 0.375

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2506 0.0% 20.26 72.87% -1.094 0.1073 -0.24
Not Using Events or Tokens 9770 40.91% 25.41 78.4% 0.15 0.3937 0.243
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3064 12.9% 40.53 91.91% 0.104 -0.4734 1.675
Start of Game Growth 4414 13.06% 38.43 92.05% 1.566 1.1063 -0.409
Unlimited Undo 9976 29.84% 34.42 86.0% -0.144 -0.322 0.914
Using Tokens but Not Events 11976 28.22% 32.1 84.15% -0.073 -0.1125 -0.06

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9688 21.84 24.66%
II 27581 31.08 73.67%
III 24391 34.71 90.44%
IV 10305 37.98 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2388
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21571
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19301
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10166
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 447
Lose: Invader deck ran out 597
Lose: Adversary condition 5358
Win: Sacrifice victory 171
Lose: Scenario condition 1033
Win: Scenario condition 1418
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8967
Lose: Spirit destroyed 548

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)