Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 183 29.12% 29.53 -0.208 90.16% -0.216 0.0648
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 173 40.12% 32.78 1.815 87.28% -0.224 0.1659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 250 60.4% 37.43 4.22 76.8% -0.775 0.095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 298 66.11% 35.54 3.379 60.74% -1.539 -0.2818
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 232 83.98% 34.59 3.57 42.24% -1.946 -0.4172
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 79 87.34% 39.06 5.589 44.3% -1.743 0.2832
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 413 84.95% 31.98 2.384 21.31% -2.996 -0.9254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1261 30.36% 25.86 -1.717 90.88% 0.093 0.1309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1249 34.96% 30.29 0.598 91.35% 0.293 0.2622
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1826 38.9% 38.8 4.758 89.1% 0.004 0.0083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1650 45.52% 45.27 7.842 86.12% -0.248 0.0438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 973 47.04% 46.57 8.629 82.32% -0.545 -0.1838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 664 62.29% 50.25 10.682 72.14% -0.946 -0.1181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1752 66.7% 49.94 9.793 62.79% -1.5 -0.2548
The Kingdom of England 0 1 906 27.87% 25.54 -1.965 89.18% -0.18 0.1517
The Kingdom of England 1 3 789 39.2% 33.24 1.939 82.13% -0.526 -0.0259
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1090 47.93% 33.31 1.943 70.55% -1.245 -0.2758
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1120 61.26% 34.74 2.731 52.77% -1.977 -0.3982
The Kingdom of England 4 7 903 58.27% 39.72 5.01 54.37% -1.958 -0.4571
The Kingdom of England 5 9 374 68.46% 39.66 5.009 39.84% -2.555 -0.4854
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2027 50.99% 47.82 8.37 46.92% -2.833 -0.5818
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 521 40.38% 29.27 -0.181 86.18% -0.267 0.258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 415 55.58% 30.19 0.363 74.46% -0.886 0.0071
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1026 48.83% 32.46 1.572 50.1% -2.27 -0.1409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 864 52.84% 39.59 4.869 52.2% -2.208 -0.021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 622 52.09% 42.41 6.474 50.48% -2.26 -0.1181
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 307 62.21% 45.62 7.868 48.53% -2.269 -0.4462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1308 57.35% 46.8 8.532 42.89% -2.609 -0.4934
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 533 32.5% 24.11 -2.624 87.99% -0.176 -0.0873
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 543 34.51% 29.1 -0.112 87.11% -0.183 -0.1632
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 736 42.49% 32.34 1.412 86.01% -0.203 0.0201
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 829 57.92% 40.34 5.576 83.59% -0.247 0.0388
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 489 67.08% 38.52 4.661 69.94% -0.993 -0.2251
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 251 66.0% 40.47 5.664 63.75% -1.271 -0.111
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1147 62.64% 43.62 7.015 62.69% -1.462 -0.3297
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 129 17.83% 26.47 -1.895 97.67% 0.754 0.6339
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 127 46.46% 31.64 1.143 81.1% -0.719 -0.0005
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 117 48.28% 37.78 3.961 85.47% -0.404 0.0379
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 153 64.47% 40.58 5.567 69.28% -1.207 0.0436
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 103 62.14% 46.59 8.601 75.73% -0.885 0.2383
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 56 78.57% 41.71 6.057 39.29% -2.322 -0.2756
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 298 87.92% 40.11 5.444 25.5% -2.925 -0.991

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 439 43.54% 27.95 -2.09 70.16% -0.59 -0.0086
Dahan Insurrection 4 937 21.9% 48.76 9.099 83.03% -0.057 0.3461
Despicable Theft 2 28 28.57% 34.64 1.87 85.71% -0.247 0.1026
Elemental Invocation 1 61 49.18% 27.92 -1.965 57.38% -0.954 -0.5813
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4025 15.86% 42.06 4.128 78.83% -0.174 0.1904
Powers Long Forgotten 1 226 58.37% 29.99 -0.218 69.03% -0.545 -0.1041
Rituals of Terror 3 187 37.42% 39.99 4.564 84.49% -0.108 0.5269
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 146 72.03% 33.53 2.069 65.75% -0.501 0.1401
Second Wave 0 2199 45.88% 29.67 -1.009 76.81% -0.651 -0.2271
Ward the Shores 2 335 42.38% 33.02 0.944 70.45% -0.9 0.1415

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1376 31.18 -1.699 55.01% -1.777 0.2935
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1548 33.7 -0.317 61.43% -1.472 0.4502
All Things Weaken 543 31.04 -1.618 54.33% -1.781 0.372
Back Against the Wall 1412 31.55 -1.505 53.33% -1.847 0.2495
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1272 29.24 -2.559 55.03% -1.722 0.5036
Downward Spiral 3166 28.3 -2.311 61.62% -1.674 0.3447
Erosion of Will 1310 29.75 -2.262 52.52% -1.919 0.2916
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 272 35.47 0.724 78.68% -0.553 0.1405
Memory Fades to Dust 3246 28.01 -2.542 58.53% -1.802 0.4129
Power Corrodes the Spirit 546 29.29 -2.348 55.86% -1.805 0.212
Promising Farmlands 1437 28.96 -2.777 53.17% -1.903 0.3106
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 164 35.59 0.972 86.59% -0.172 0.2587
Thriving Communities 585 29.17 -2.355 55.56% -1.87 0.2259
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.6 52.1% -1.844 0.3776
Unnatural Proliferation 600 30.65 -1.418 59.33% -1.626 0.4609
Untended Land Crumbles 553 29.69 -2.117 55.15% -1.788 0.3085

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17986 42.33% 31.34 -0.498 76.18% -0.084 -1.1855
B 17251 43.26% 31.21 -0.418 76.12% -0.075 -1.2707
C 18134 41.1% 32.45 0.247 77.62% 0.077 -1.3519
D 16115 42.02% 31.15 -0.461 76.97% -0.067 -1.2577
E 4103 42.03% 32.26 -0.154 77.77% -0.011 -1.3101
F 6375 41.54% 32.83 -0.071 76.55% -0.062 -1.3162
G 6287 40.99% 35.69 1.071 77.97% 0.096 -1.1465
H 6453 39.53% 36.43 1.31 79.33% 0.154 -1.1034

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1678 0.0% 20.35 -5.16 73.78% -2.191 -0.1428
Not Using Events or Tokens 6776 41.25% 25.69 -2.511 79.01% -0.237 -0.016
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2109 13.5% 39.88 2.951 92.65% 0.798 0.0929
Start of Game Growth 2674 14.09% 39.55 2.832 92.18% 0.546 0.0941
Unlimited Undo 5830 33.01% 35.22 1.194 84.97% 0.419 0.0024
Using Tokens but Not Events 8304 28.17% 32.75 -0.208 84.85% 0.174 0.1233

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6033 22.33 26.16%
II 17962 30.75 74.23%
III 15709 34.25 90.27%
IV 6648 37.47 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1194
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10713
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9660
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4954
Lose: Invader deck ran out 407
Lose: Adversary condition 3425
Win: Sacrifice victory 95
Lose: Scenario condition 696
Win: Scenario condition 1012
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5759
Lose: Spirit destroyed 363

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)