Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 141 22.7% 24.82 93.62% 0.962 0.7579
Blitz 0 599 43.43% 29.8 66.61% 0.29 0.4424 -0.638
Dahan Insurrection 4 1400 35.36% 51.44 67.14% 0.994 0.7544 -0.089
Despicable Theft 2 124 50.81% 34.93 65.32% -0.26 0.5161 -0.544
Elemental Invocation 1 179 61.45% 30.35 59.22% 1.212 1.9945 -0.548
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5062 15.07% 42.62 78.35% 0.648 0.0332 0.312
Powers Long Forgotten 1 205 53.23% 29.83 77.07% 0.915 1.4278 -0.338
Rituals of Terror 3 199 37.43% 39.8 84.92% 0.584 0.6518 0.827
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 133 66.92% 33.57 68.42% 0.102 1.1017 0.445
Second Wave 0 2811 35.65% 29.71 81.79% 0.673 0.7384 -0.406
Varied Terrains 2 67 47.76% 30.61 59.7% -0.317 0.2287 -0.499
Ward the Shores 2 318 43.41% 32.81 68.55% -0.559 0.5915 -0.101

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2069 31.52 55.53% 0.005 0.2165 -0.539
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2245 33.68 59.38% 0.306 0.2739 -0.202
All Things Weaken 1212 30.94 50.91% -0.767 -0.3547 -0.752
Attenuated Essence 46 26.83 45.65% -0.324 -0.1716 -0.795
Back Against the Wall 2113 32.41 53.86% -0.067 0.0409 -0.559
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 27.07 46.51% 0.169 0.5073 -0.28
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 32.75 52.27% -0.003 0.2344 -0.466
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1945 30.02 54.04% -0.426 0.0447 -0.539
Downward Spiral 4580 28.15 60.7% -0.031 0.2551 -0.578
Erosion of Will 2040 30.34 51.76% 0.553 0.9017 -0.808
Intensifying Exploitation 34 27.85 50.0% -0.223 0.1233 -0.593
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 578 36.27 78.72% 1.198 0.6698 0.317
Memory Fades to Dust 4647 28.15 57.59% -0.262 0.1555 -0.746
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1197 30.37 55.89% 0.274 0.5335 -0.473
Promising Farmlands 2141 29.33 52.92% 0.134 0.653 -0.728
Shattered Fragments of Power 48 30.67 43.75% -0.324 -0.2142 -0.143
Slow Dissolution of Will 57 29.18 50.88% -0.373 0.1004 -0.424
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 366 36.51 83.88% 0.678 0.0614 0.412
The Border of Life and Death 19 29.53 47.37% -0.165 -0.4681 -0.02
Thriving Communities 1256 29.84 52.95% 0.126 0.5265 -0.732
Thriving Crops 14 32.43 64.29% 0.545 0.517 0.157
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.558
Unnatural Proliferation 1383 32.15 55.89% -0.133 0.1036 -0.654
Untended Land Crumbles 1312 29.53 52.06% -0.571 -0.2699 -0.756

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 27803 42.67% 31.12 74.58% -0.259 0.5915 -0.215
B 27011 42.77% 31.03 74.52% -0.153 0.66 -0.039
C 28004 40.39% 32.17 76.95% 0.153 0.8375 0.094
D 24067 41.86% 31.0 75.68% 0.006 0.8305 -0.3
E 9381 41.68% 31.81 75.88% -0.066 0.5822 -0.009
F 11356 41.76% 32.37 75.41% 0.166 0.9126 -0.176
G 10576 41.27% 33.92 76.75% 0.134 0.9004 0.285
H 10934 40.39% 34.88 77.58% 0.04 0.7205 0.346

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2585 0.0% 20.04 71.99% -0.797 0.0372 -0.52
Not Using Events or Tokens 10098 40.48% 25.02 77.45% -0.123 0.2068 0.188
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3191 12.84% 40.41 90.66% 0.326 -0.26 1.659
Start of Game Growth 4606 12.82% 38.38 91.29% 1.267 0.9964 -0.28
Unlimited Undo 10358 29.76% 33.96 84.84% -0.347 -0.354 0.839
Using Tokens but Not Events 12346 28.16% 31.9 83.66% 0.243 0.1732 -0.061

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10562 20.82 23.18%
II 28416 31.03 73.46%
III 25068 34.74 90.41%
IV 10541 38.03 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2447
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22167
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19836
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10400
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1181
Lose: Invader deck ran out 610
Lose: Adversary condition 5505
Win: Sacrifice victory 175
Lose: Scenario condition 1062
Win: Scenario condition 1445
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9197
Lose: Spirit destroyed 562

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)