Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 235 27.35% 29.54 -0.058 89.79% -0.282 0.0071
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 217 37.67% 32.45 1.6 85.25% -0.499 -0.0846
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 306 58.17% 37.67 4.361 76.8% -0.821 0.0621
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 363 64.74% 36.01 3.657 61.98% -1.522 -0.2802
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 280 82.44% 34.61 3.54 41.43% -2.045 -0.548
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 85 88.24% 38.29 5.27 42.35% -1.853 0.0859
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 533 86.09% 32.22 2.527 21.76% -2.992 -0.9491
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1435 30.16% 25.76 -1.682 90.8% 0.065 0.1063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1411 34.34% 30.27 0.673 91.42% 0.286 0.2681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2009 39.17% 38.77 4.859 89.0% 0.007 0.0208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1877 45.06% 45.42 8.023 86.57% -0.219 0.0647
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1112 46.77% 46.57 8.719 82.19% -0.546 -0.1862
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 727 61.79% 50.39 10.872 72.63% -0.907 -0.0821
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1905 68.53% 49.34 9.724 61.26% -1.52 -0.281
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1020 28.57% 25.5 -1.861 89.41% -0.15 0.1795
The Kingdom of England 1 3 853 38.74% 33.2 2.016 82.3% -0.523 -0.0063
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1227 48.94% 33.17 1.974 70.58% -1.225 -0.2517
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1253 60.8% 34.83 2.866 53.31% -1.97 -0.3897
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1025 59.9% 38.85 4.729 52.49% -2.019 -0.5246
The Kingdom of England 5 9 413 68.63% 39.82 5.201 40.44% -2.517 -0.4472
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2251 52.61% 47.12 8.212 45.31% -2.869 -0.6254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 614 41.92% 29.1 -0.144 86.32% -0.236 0.2759
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 461 56.11% 30.24 0.477 75.05% -0.851 0.0509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1104 48.91% 32.61 1.714 50.72% -2.238 -0.0965
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 997 53.31% 39.81 5.072 52.86% -2.187 0.0112
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 677 53.32% 42.01 6.349 49.63% -2.296 -0.1357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 339 62.24% 45.76 8.076 49.26% -2.233 -0.4159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1463 57.77% 46.79 8.628 42.86% -2.605 -0.5137
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 605 32.31% 24.02 -2.557 88.76% -0.095 -0.0062
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 598 34.18% 29.15 0.0 87.46% -0.159 -0.1239
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 815 42.1% 32.41 1.526 86.13% -0.195 0.042
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 920 57.03% 40.32 5.628 83.8% -0.244 0.0464
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 558 66.85% 38.43 4.677 69.89% -1.0 -0.2186
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 268 65.92% 40.26 5.643 63.06% -1.292 -0.1237
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1293 64.52% 43.36 7.049 62.34% -1.429 -0.3065
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 167 19.76% 26.51 -1.741 97.6% 0.798 0.709
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 168 46.11% 31.76 1.229 82.14% -0.658 0.1206
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 149 48.65% 38.62 4.434 87.25% -0.21 0.2017
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 213 66.51% 38.62 4.721 63.38% -1.463 -0.2186
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 141 65.25% 45.97 8.371 73.76% -0.95 0.1581
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 63 77.78% 42.92 6.78 42.86% -2.167 -0.1826
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 360 85.83% 41.9 6.308 28.61% -2.793 -0.9211

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 511 45.27% 27.56 -2.177 68.1% -0.679 -0.1133
Dahan Insurrection 4 1046 22.49% 48.8 9.128 82.12% -0.072 0.3279
Despicable Theft 2 70 55.71% 37.23 2.043 62.86% -0.498 -0.2237
Elemental Invocation 1 115 60.0% 27.55 -1.745 51.3% -0.915 -0.4126
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4446 15.74% 42.01 4.215 78.95% -0.183 0.1817
Powers Long Forgotten 1 250 55.51% 29.71 -0.367 69.2% -0.613 -0.1669
Rituals of Terror 3 208 35.87% 40.16 4.801 84.62% -0.072 0.5733
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 155 71.05% 33.39 2.06 65.16% -0.57 0.0771
Second Wave 0 2625 41.85% 29.4 -1.084 78.63% -0.672 -0.2422
Ward the Shores 2 364 43.26% 32.8 0.922 70.6% -0.892 0.1399

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1550 30.97 -1.711 54.65% -1.789 0.2807
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1703 33.26 -0.441 60.13% -1.539 0.3742
All Things Weaken 676 30.57 -1.689 53.55% -1.858 0.3011
Back Against the Wall 1579 31.58 -1.402 53.2% -1.844 0.243
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1418 29.33 -2.445 55.15% -1.736 0.4866
Downward Spiral 3529 28.14 -2.279 61.49% -1.688 0.3338
Erosion of Will 1480 29.82 -2.176 52.64% -1.917 0.2904
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 347 35.5 0.864 78.96% -0.554 0.1245
Memory Fades to Dust 3594 27.97 -2.458 58.68% -1.813 0.4019
Power Corrodes the Spirit 681 29.46 -2.166 55.8% -1.805 0.216
Promising Farmlands 1611 28.8 -2.729 53.69% -1.89 0.3179
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 219 35.78 1.216 87.21% -0.041 0.371
Thriving Communities 747 29.02 -2.316 55.96% -1.863 0.2248
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.532 52.1% -1.851 0.3734
Unnatural Proliferation 787 30.57 -1.396 58.32% -1.701 0.3798
Untended Land Crumbles 725 29.28 -2.256 53.38% -1.854 0.2486

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 20255 42.63% 31.17 -0.474 75.87% -0.109 -0.797
B 19501 43.06% 31.1 -0.372 76.1% -0.086 -0.8697
C 20499 40.86% 32.29 0.257 77.82% 0.081 -0.9321
D 18021 42.01% 31.04 -0.404 77.17% -0.054 -0.8313
E 5355 41.51% 31.96 -0.156 78.17% 0.002 -0.8922
F 7622 41.52% 32.42 -0.118 76.74% -0.068 -0.9083
G 7286 41.01% 34.97 0.938 78.23% 0.097 -0.7351
H 7485 39.39% 35.78 1.201 79.68% 0.164 -0.6748

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2001 0.0% 20.42 -5.033 73.11% -2.288 -0.2347
Not Using Events or Tokens 7614 41.85% 25.51 -2.497 78.49% -0.227 -0.0118
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2379 12.99% 38.65 2.852 93.11% 0.782 0.0956
Start of Game Growth 3297 13.34% 37.41 2.231 92.99% 0.593 0.1242
Unlimited Undo 7170 30.84% 34.59 1.142 86.29% 0.481 0.0579
Using Tokens but Not Events 9406 27.71% 32.26 -0.278 85.3% 0.172 0.1207

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6791 22.37 25.9%
II 20548 30.88 74.23%
III 17962 34.39 90.21%
IV 7711 37.55 99.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1375
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12695
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11507
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6004
Lose: Invader deck ran out 458
Lose: Adversary condition 3880
Win: Sacrifice victory 114
Lose: Scenario condition 765
Win: Scenario condition 1114
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6622
Lose: Spirit destroyed 404

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)