Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 141 22.7% 24.82 93.62% 0.966 0.7006
Blitz 0 607 43.18% 29.71 66.23% -0.117 0.0392 -0.623
Dahan Insurrection 4 1401 35.34% 51.47 67.17% 1.062 0.7942 -0.077
Despicable Theft 2 128 50.78% 34.74 64.84% -0.234 0.5286 -0.545
Elemental Invocation 1 180 61.67% 30.24 58.89% 0.635 1.3958 -0.545
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5091 15.23% 42.62 78.16% 0.593 -0.0397 0.307
Powers Long Forgotten 1 206 52.97% 29.68 76.7% 0.702 1.2357 -0.335
Rituals of Terror 3 199 37.43% 39.8 84.92% 0.641 0.7436 0.833
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 133 66.92% 33.57 68.42% 0.065 1.0707 0.443
Second Wave 0 2813 35.63% 29.72 81.8% 0.597 0.6631 -0.407
Varied Terrains 2 67 47.76% 30.61 59.7% -0.337 0.2417 -0.498
Ward the Shores 2 318 43.41% 32.81 68.55% -0.63 0.5254 -0.099

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2071 31.5 55.53% 0.027 0.2175 -0.53
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2247 33.67 59.37% 0.363 0.2992 -0.195
All Things Weaken 1222 30.88 50.82% -0.738 -0.3514 -0.747
Attenuated Essence 52 27.73 44.23% -0.251 -0.1454 -0.584
Back Against the Wall 2122 32.43 53.91% -0.165 -0.1026 -0.545
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 30.77 52.08% 0.531 0.8142 0.116
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 32.75 52.27% 0.07 0.2612 -0.455
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1947 30.0 53.98% -0.365 0.0667 -0.538
Downward Spiral 4587 28.14 60.67% 0.008 0.2688 -0.565
Erosion of Will 2043 30.31 51.79% 0.515 0.8438 -0.798
Intensifying Exploitation 35 28.49 51.43% -0.128 0.17 -0.582
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 580 36.25 78.62% 1.051 0.5527 0.306
Memory Fades to Dust 4660 28.1 57.49% -0.273 0.1215 -0.737
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1204 30.37 55.9% 0.273 0.5182 -0.463
Promising Farmlands 2149 29.39 53.0% 0.316 0.8029 -0.701
Shattered Fragments of Power 50 30.84 46.0% -0.202 -0.1248 -0.134
Slow Dissolution of Will 60 29.88 51.67% -0.196 0.2386 -0.489
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 370 36.44 83.78% 0.69 0.0576 0.422
The Border of Life and Death 19 29.53 47.37% -0.027 -0.3876 -0.034
Thriving Communities 1263 29.77 52.65% -0.147 0.2308 -0.754
Thriving Crops 16 34.44 68.75% 0.762 0.7058 0.172
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.553
Unnatural Proliferation 1386 32.17 55.84% -0.16 0.0403 -0.647
Untended Land Crumbles 1319 29.55 52.24% -0.368 -0.098 -0.745

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 27901 42.65% 31.08 74.47% -0.293 0.5686 -0.222
B 27101 42.77% 31.01 74.44% -0.133 0.6942 -0.037
C 28103 40.4% 32.14 76.86% 0.151 0.8394 0.096
D 24134 41.91% 31.0 75.62% -0.013 0.815 -0.304
E 9432 41.63% 31.78 75.84% -0.047 0.6113 -0.001
F 11393 41.79% 32.35 75.36% 0.166 0.9182 -0.174
G 10620 41.25% 33.9 76.65% 0.144 0.9138 0.282
H 10969 40.37% 34.84 77.53% 0.048 0.7376 0.346

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2594 0.0% 20.0 71.86% -0.857 -0.0311 -0.513
Not Using Events or Tokens 10129 40.49% 24.98 77.34% -0.114 0.2229 0.179
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3198 12.81% 40.48 90.68% 0.53 -0.077 1.686
Start of Game Growth 4621 12.78% 38.4 91.26% 1.228 0.9499 -0.255
Unlimited Undo 10376 29.78% 33.95 84.84% -0.299 -0.2984 0.846
Using Tokens but Not Events 12379 28.19% 31.89 83.56% 0.204 0.1339 -0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10655 20.73 23.03%
II 28487 31.02 73.43%
III 25139 34.75 90.4%
IV 10566 38.04 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2453
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22230
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19880
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10425
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1253
Lose: Invader deck ran out 614
Lose: Adversary condition 5515
Win: Sacrifice victory 175
Lose: Scenario condition 1074
Win: Scenario condition 1446
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9218
Lose: Spirit destroyed 564

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)