Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 224 28.25% 29.48 -0.113 89.29% -0.324 -0.0416
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 211 38.28% 32.45 1.648 85.78% -0.43 -0.0233
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 296 58.11% 37.75 4.406 77.36% -0.776 0.0984
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 353 64.59% 36.01 3.651 62.04% -1.519 -0.2714
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 274 82.78% 34.43 3.485 41.24% -2.04 -0.5386
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 81 87.65% 38.64 5.449 43.21% -1.802 0.1504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 508 85.8% 31.86 2.387 20.87% -3.028 -0.9852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1405 30.45% 25.78 -1.681 90.75% 0.067 0.1083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1382 34.61% 30.27 0.675 91.32% 0.279 0.2605
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1975 39.07% 38.74 4.834 88.86% -0.009 0.0016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1834 45.26% 45.41 8.009 86.53% -0.218 0.0693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1077 46.85% 46.46 8.663 81.99% -0.563 -0.1952
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 705 61.79% 50.47 10.869 72.77% -0.91 -0.0854
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1874 68.11% 49.54 9.806 61.74% -1.504 -0.2657
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1007 28.64% 25.5 -1.867 89.37% -0.156 0.1763
The Kingdom of England 1 3 840 38.74% 33.22 2.014 82.26% -0.523 -0.0107
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1191 48.69% 33.23 2.001 70.7% -1.222 -0.2558
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1230 60.51% 34.89 2.876 53.41% -1.976 -0.3976
The Kingdom of England 4 7 999 59.8% 38.96 4.764 52.55% -2.021 -0.5243
The Kingdom of England 5 9 406 68.49% 39.82 5.193 40.39% -2.527 -0.4559
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2196 52.19% 47.26 8.263 45.67% -2.865 -0.6166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 598 41.54% 29.21 -0.098 86.62% -0.21 0.3033
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 446 55.98% 30.24 0.461 75.11% -0.863 0.0381
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1088 48.94% 32.58 1.689 50.64% -2.245 -0.1034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 959 52.71% 39.95 5.128 53.18% -2.186 0.0108
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 668 53.29% 42.12 6.404 49.85% -2.289 -0.131
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 330 62.73% 45.96 8.152 49.7% -2.207 -0.3927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1422 57.54% 46.79 8.614 42.83% -2.612 -0.5152
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 599 32.3% 24.02 -2.56 88.65% -0.107 -0.0221
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 585 34.08% 29.17 0.006 87.52% -0.151 -0.118
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 800 41.83% 32.46 1.546 86.25% -0.191 0.0432
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 906 57.41% 40.31 5.623 83.77% -0.245 0.0416
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 544 67.1% 38.55 4.732 70.22% -0.984 -0.202
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 263 66.41% 40.14 5.596 62.74% -1.304 -0.1381
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1265 64.6% 43.26 6.994 62.13% -1.443 -0.3183
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 158 19.62% 26.46 -1.785 97.47% 0.741 0.6374
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 159 46.2% 31.72 1.184 81.76% -0.705 0.0718
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 146 47.59% 38.82 4.493 87.67% -0.191 0.2256
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 199 66.16% 38.98 4.89 64.32% -1.439 -0.1808
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 134 63.43% 45.98 8.334 73.88% -0.981 0.134
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 63 77.78% 42.92 6.775 42.86% -2.174 -0.1768
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 346 86.42% 41.05 5.918 27.17% -2.859 -0.9797

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 495 44.68% 27.7 -2.104 69.49% -0.624 -0.0555
Dahan Insurrection 4 1030 22.25% 48.87 9.178 82.62% -0.055 0.3433
Despicable Theft 2 64 53.13% 37.88 2.496 67.19% -0.438 -0.1802
Elemental Invocation 1 112 59.82% 27.47 -1.779 50.89% -0.931 -0.4662
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4342 15.84% 42.03 4.213 79.06% -0.173 0.1939
Powers Long Forgotten 1 241 57.63% 29.67 -0.349 68.05% -0.621 -0.1759
Rituals of Terror 3 203 35.75% 39.85 4.635 84.73% -0.086 0.5591
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 154 71.52% 33.33 2.04 64.94% -0.573 0.0712
Second Wave 0 2538 42.65% 29.47 -1.077 78.25% -0.674 -0.2461
Ward the Shores 2 357 43.55% 32.82 0.935 70.03% -0.913 0.1202

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1508 30.96 -1.713 54.71% -1.788 0.286
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1667 33.38 -0.389 60.41% -1.522 0.3969
All Things Weaken 648 30.35 -1.787 53.4% -1.878 0.2921
Back Against the Wall 1547 31.66 -1.382 53.07% -1.843 0.2489
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1386 29.27 -2.474 55.27% -1.729 0.4962
Downward Spiral 3460 28.21 -2.246 61.79% -1.671 0.3511
Erosion of Will 1443 29.8 -2.177 52.67% -1.919 0.2902
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 335 35.59 0.887 78.81% -0.557 0.129
Memory Fades to Dust 3532 27.92 -2.479 58.64% -1.811 0.4079
Power Corrodes the Spirit 651 29.23 -2.289 55.3% -1.839 0.1836
Promising Farmlands 1569 28.78 -2.749 53.54% -1.901 0.3126
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 206 35.66 1.177 87.86% -0.022 0.3882
Thriving Communities 708 29.11 -2.304 55.93% -1.872 0.223
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.536 52.1% -1.85 0.3767
Unnatural Proliferation 757 30.6 -1.392 58.78% -1.689 0.397
Untended Land Crumbles 698 29.23 -2.275 53.44% -1.863 0.2434

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19843 42.52% 31.17 -0.479 75.96% -0.104 -0.8878
B 19072 43.07% 31.09 -0.378 76.16% -0.082 -0.9618
C 20010 40.81% 32.28 0.246 77.77% 0.074 -1.0379
D 17638 41.99% 31.05 -0.408 77.13% -0.056 -0.929
E 5083 41.53% 32.05 -0.134 78.06% 0.002 -0.986
F 7403 41.39% 32.44 -0.111 76.9% -0.061 -0.9987
G 7116 41.03% 35.04 0.95 78.19% 0.089 -0.8387
H 7301 39.31% 35.85 1.216 79.76% 0.165 -0.7718

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1942 0.0% 20.27 -5.091 72.81% -2.286 -0.2296
Not Using Events or Tokens 7471 41.82% 25.47 -2.514 78.46% -0.238 -0.0221
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2323 12.98% 38.97 2.917 93.11% 0.805 0.1163
Start of Game Growth 3150 13.37% 37.88 2.371 92.92% 0.596 0.1271
Unlimited Undo 6886 31.34% 34.69 1.149 85.96% 0.458 0.0382
Using Tokens but Not Events 9211 27.77% 32.34 -0.259 85.29% 0.172 0.1204

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6640 22.35 26.04%
II 20070 30.84 74.26%
III 17524 34.35 90.25%
IV 7499 37.52 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1345
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12316
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11166
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5794
Lose: Invader deck ran out 445
Lose: Adversary condition 3776
Win: Sacrifice victory 112
Lose: Scenario condition 747
Win: Scenario condition 1099
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6460
Lose: Spirit destroyed 399

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)