Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 119 23.53% 25.13 94.12% 0.617 0.4754
Blitz 0 563 44.22% 28.94 66.79% 0.16 0.4982 -0.934
Dahan Insurrection 4 1355 35.43% 51.16 66.86% 0.406 0.166 -0.243
Despicable Theft 2 119 52.94% 35.27 64.71% -0.808 -0.2092 -0.55
Elemental Invocation 1 172 60.47% 30.35 58.14% 0.148 0.9795 -0.524
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4869 15.18% 42.68 78.89% 0.473 0.1068 0.323
Powers Long Forgotten 1 194 52.11% 30.1 76.8% 0.339 0.8061 -0.385
Rituals of Terror 3 191 38.55% 39.94 84.82% -0.715 -0.9885 0.91
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 131 66.41% 33.52 67.94% -0.366 0.3289 0.458
Second Wave 0 2677 36.51% 29.57 81.73% 0.24 0.4271 -0.398
Varied Terrains 2 48 52.08% 32.88 68.75% -0.902 -0.2952 -0.217
Ward the Shores 2 314 43.97% 32.99 69.43% 0.666 1.5265 -0.074

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2023 31.6 55.61% -0.491 0.4803 -0.588
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2200 33.77 59.59% -0.307 0.4788 -0.21
All Things Weaken 1149 31.55 52.13% -1.218 -0.1301 -0.771
Attenuated Essence 8 31.75 50.0% -0.773 0.1143 -0.413
Back Against the Wall 2073 32.55 53.88% -0.472 0.3569 -0.606
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 21.67 22.22% -1.176 0.0751 -1.015
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 44.13 87.5% 0.845 1.7856 0.853
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1889 30.3 54.37% -0.643 0.4762 -0.581
Downward Spiral 4471 28.32 60.95% -0.911 0.0515 -0.625
Erosion of Will 1983 30.27 51.54% -0.588 0.5281 -0.94
Intensifying Exploitation 6 27.67 66.67% -0.1 0.9743 0.209
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 552 36.48 79.17% 0.816 0.6999 0.262
Memory Fades to Dust 4518 28.25 57.99% -0.949 0.1634 -0.818
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1139 30.41 55.93% -0.582 0.3744 -0.547
Promising Farmlands 2082 29.36 52.93% -0.516 0.62 -0.83
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 33.88 62.5% -0.092 0.8305 -0.418
Slow Dissolution of Will 18 39.22 55.56% -0.629 0.6405 -0.207
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 350 36.6 84.29% -0.508 -0.7959 0.387
Thriving Communities 1203 29.82 53.03% -0.562 0.5848 -0.797
Thriving Crops 5 41.4 60.0% 0.201 1.0774 0.286
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.608
Unnatural Proliferation 1319 32.41 56.63% -0.976 -0.0103 -0.664
Untended Land Crumbles 1248 29.96 52.72% -1.064 -0.0319 -0.808

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26562 42.9% 31.56 75.69% -0.257 0.6125 -0.175
B 25866 43.18% 31.39 75.54% -0.063 0.7038 -0.046
C 26842 40.73% 32.49 77.67% 0.156 0.7512 0.062
D 23177 42.07% 31.31 76.41% -0.012 0.808 -0.31
E 8788 42.0% 32.3 77.22% 0.121 0.774 -0.035
F 10796 41.94% 32.72 76.21% 0.129 0.8607 -0.155
G 10104 41.68% 34.27 77.41% -0.126 0.5894 0.268
H 10448 40.47% 35.25 78.43% 0.075 0.7716 0.378

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2490 0.0% 20.35 73.13% -1.022 0.4662 -0.266
Not Using Events or Tokens 9699 40.96% 25.5 78.64% 0.178 0.3692 0.283
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3041 12.98% 40.52 92.07% 0.244 -0.4721 1.662
Start of Game Growth 4385 13.13% 38.42 92.16% 1.419 0.9467 -0.428
Unlimited Undo 9910 29.87% 34.51 86.24% -0.001 -0.2528 0.911
Using Tokens but Not Events 11875 28.29% 32.21 84.4% 0.052 0.0535 -0.037

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9499 22.19 25.03%
II 27350 31.1 73.73%
III 24214 34.71 90.42%
IV 10254 37.97 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2377
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21407
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19156
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10115
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 255
Lose: Invader deck ran out 596
Lose: Adversary condition 5340
Win: Sacrifice victory 171
Lose: Scenario condition 1033
Win: Scenario condition 1411
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8912
Lose: Spirit destroyed 544

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)