Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 495 44.68% 27.7 -2.103 69.49% -0.624 -0.055
Dahan Insurrection 4 1035 22.24% 48.86 9.17 82.61% -0.053 0.3448
Despicable Theft 2 65 52.31% 37.85 2.486 67.69% -0.431 -0.1619
Elemental Invocation 1 113 59.29% 27.49 -1.78 51.33% -0.922 -0.4575
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4357 15.81% 42.04 4.215 79.07% -0.175 0.191
Powers Long Forgotten 1 241 57.63% 29.67 -0.35 68.05% -0.622 -0.1772
Rituals of Terror 3 206 35.71% 40.27 4.837 84.95% -0.042 0.6034
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 154 71.52% 33.33 2.04 64.94% -0.574 0.0707
Second Wave 0 2551 42.63% 29.45 -1.087 78.2% -0.68 -0.2511
Ward the Shores 2 358 43.71% 32.8 0.929 70.11% -0.904 0.1303

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1512 30.92 -1.729 54.63% -1.792 0.2807
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1672 33.32 -0.413 60.29% -1.53 0.3878
All Things Weaken 653 30.36 -1.779 53.45% -1.879 0.2917
Back Against the Wall 1550 31.7 -1.365 53.16% -1.839 0.2519
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1392 29.23 -2.495 55.24% -1.732 0.4926
Downward Spiral 3471 28.21 -2.245 61.8% -1.67 0.3534
Erosion of Will 1447 29.86 -2.155 52.8% -1.914 0.2953
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 338 35.47 0.849 78.99% -0.553 0.1339
Memory Fades to Dust 3540 27.94 -2.464 58.67% -1.809 0.4098
Power Corrodes the Spirit 656 29.14 -2.321 55.18% -1.842 0.1817
Promising Farmlands 1579 28.79 -2.749 53.51% -1.901 0.313
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 208 35.75 1.221 87.98% -0.008 0.4015
Thriving Communities 712 29.07 -2.319 55.9% -1.873 0.2215
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.536 52.1% -1.85 0.3763
Unnatural Proliferation 762 30.54 -1.412 58.53% -1.696 0.3901
Untended Land Crumbles 702 29.2 -2.284 53.42% -1.863 0.2432

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19904 42.54% 31.18 -0.476 75.95% -0.105 -0.8652
B 19153 43.07% 31.09 -0.379 76.13% -0.084 -0.9409
C 20079 40.79% 32.29 0.253 77.8% 0.075 -1.0134
D 17685 41.98% 31.05 -0.407 77.14% -0.056 -0.9063
E 5129 41.45% 32.04 -0.13 78.14% 0.006 -0.9587
F 7437 41.39% 32.41 -0.123 76.93% -0.062 -0.9758
G 7140 41.03% 35.02 0.947 78.19% 0.09 -0.8158
H 7335 39.35% 35.82 1.209 79.73% 0.163 -0.7511

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1946 0.0% 20.28 -5.084 72.82% -2.286 -0.2298
Not Using Events or Tokens 7488 41.84% 25.47 -2.516 78.47% -0.239 -0.0233
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2324 12.98% 38.97 2.923 93.12% 0.802 0.1147
Start of Game Growth 3164 13.34% 37.84 2.355 92.95% 0.601 0.1304
Unlimited Undo 6924 31.27% 34.69 1.15 85.99% 0.459 0.0395
Using Tokens but Not Events 9246 27.77% 32.33 -0.261 85.31% 0.173 0.1202

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6663 22.35 26.01%
II 20150 30.84 74.27%
III 17581 34.35 90.25%
IV 7537 37.52 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1349
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12366
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5832
Lose: Invader deck ran out 448
Lose: Adversary condition 3791
Win: Sacrifice victory 112
Lose: Scenario condition 749
Win: Scenario condition 1104
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6482
Lose: Spirit destroyed 400

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)