Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 316 32.06% 29.61 -3.049 86.71% -0.674 -0.2527
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 332 41.34% 32.39 -1.37 82.83% -0.945 -0.6375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 465 59.27% 37.39 5.407 73.12% -0.192 0.9381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 541 65.68% 36.1 6.159 59.15% -0.178 1.1353
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 357 82.3% 36.59 8.541 44.26% -0.406 0.9225
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 120 84.17% 41.05 8.949 42.5% -0.833 1.1839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 774 84.35% 34.85 2.921 24.42% -1.93 0.3731
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1795 30.25% 26.07 -1.155 90.97% 0.422 0.2714
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1949 32.9% 30.79 0.341 91.79% 1.149 0.8529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2588 39.86% 39.03 4.309 88.87% 0.19 0.2923
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2390 46.84% 45.08 7.665 84.27% 0.259 0.5616
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1509 46.69% 47.11 8.178 82.37% 0.204 0.6113
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 993 59.94% 51.27 12.18 74.22% -0.203 0.7441
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2335 71.37% 48.81 7.522 58.37% -1.135 0.3538
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1238 29.84% 25.82 -2.474 89.26% -0.239 0.2393
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1058 38.07% 33.26 2.063 82.51% -0.123 0.4492
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1519 50.2% 33.27 1.786 71.1% -0.281 0.8258
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1573 61.78% 34.64 3.622 52.32% -1.249 0.332
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1380 57.7% 40.29 7.232 53.99% -1.239 0.2214
The Kingdom of England 5 9 544 69.76% 40.79 4.193 40.44% -2.101 0.0508
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2902 54.11% 47.57 4.636 43.9% -2.412 0.01
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 714 42.5% 29.03 -2.052 86.13% -0.473 0.2263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 596 57.67% 29.94 -1.379 72.48% -0.749 0.4208
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1402 50.21% 32.74 0.081 50.14% -1.772 0.2907
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1250 54.68% 39.41 2.093 51.28% -2.116 0.1261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 824 53.76% 42.33 8.123 49.15% -0.677 1.2966
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 410 64.15% 47.32 10.577 50.24% -0.666 1.0991
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2244 61.24% 49.09 7.294 40.78% -2.33 -0.1311
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 69 36.23% 28.78 -1.327 89.86% 0.039 -0.1321
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 75 32.0% 31.91 -3.192 76.0% -1.31 -0.3471
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 99 45.45% 36.42 1.647 81.82% -0.724 0.3293
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 130 43.85% 43.21 5.467 76.15% -0.539 0.2403
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 120 60.0% 44.62 5.78 71.67% -1.028 0.0498
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 83 49.4% 54.57 6.836 74.7% -1.255 0.0424
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 273 58.61% 49.09 7.391 46.15% -1.787 -0.0879
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 744 33.43% 24.2 -2.253 88.71% 0.841 0.9251
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 757 34.89% 29.38 0.266 88.24% 0.387 0.4318
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1034 43.44% 32.49 0.576 85.3% -0.661 -0.3942
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1161 57.35% 40.73 3.845 83.2% -0.403 -0.0623
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 795 68.68% 39.24 4.502 71.7% -0.545 0.4402
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 320 66.14% 40.75 2.922 64.06% -1.016 0.2461
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1755 65.29% 44.57 8.547 61.77% -0.555 0.5387
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 273 24.54% 28.12 -1.995 93.41% 0.352 -0.0731
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 249 49.19% 31.27 -2.238 77.51% -0.919 -0.227
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 242 46.89% 39.11 5.017 84.71% 0.369 0.7664
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 362 64.82% 40.62 2.024 65.19% -1.592 -0.263
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 363 42.98% 49.88 11.59 81.54% 0.257 1.3987
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 116 75.86% 45.95 9.11 46.55% -0.576 1.3002
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 905 84.75% 47.13 4.539 23.43% -2.374 -0.363

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 112 24.11% 25.48 94.64% 0.661 0.2712
Blitz 0 551 44.49% 28.68 67.15% 0.239 0.7259 -0.956
Dahan Insurrection 4 1320 35.0% 51.43 68.11% 0.113 0.193 -0.213
Despicable Theft 2 115 53.04% 36.07 66.09% 0.086 0.5417 -0.558
Elemental Invocation 1 171 60.23% 30.39 57.89% 0.139 0.7894 -0.538
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4815 15.31% 42.64 79.07% -0.011 0.1085 0.342
Powers Long Forgotten 1 191 51.87% 30.15 76.44% -0.184 0.4138 -0.379
Rituals of Terror 3 191 38.55% 39.94 84.82% -0.744 -0.8628 0.9
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 129 66.67% 33.7 68.22% 0.465
Second Wave 0 2651 36.56% 29.54 81.67% -0.432 0.0794 -0.297
Varied Terrains 2 42 54.76% 29.29 69.05% -1.595 -0.8031 -0.218
Ward the Shores 2 312 43.93% 33.04 69.23% 0.563 1.2838 -0.08

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2002 31.57 55.64% -1.063 0.8857 -0.652
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2185 33.72 59.45% -1.616 0.1778 -0.265
All Things Weaken 1130 31.58 52.04% -2.249 -0.1651 -0.839
Back Against the Wall 2051 32.59 53.83% -0.943 0.9388 -0.633
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1869 30.26 54.47% -0.882 1.1905 -0.604
Downward Spiral 4430 28.39 61.17% -1.662 0.2187 -0.644
Erosion of Will 1963 30.29 51.5% -1.458 0.6305 -0.96
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 541 36.45 79.3% 0.244 0.8515 0.229
Memory Fades to Dust 4477 28.28 58.16% -1.473 0.5837 -0.852
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1114 30.46 55.92% -1.234 0.6852 -0.601
Promising Farmlands 2064 29.39 52.81% -1.574 0.4664 -0.855
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 340 36.87 85.29% -1.02 -0.5813 0.446
Thriving Communities 1176 29.92 53.15% -1.314 0.7606 -0.835
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.636
Unnatural Proliferation 1297 32.42 56.67% -1.98 -0.0234 -0.707
Untended Land Crumbles 1226 30.12 53.02% -1.453 0.5564 -0.803

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26155 43.04% 31.7 76.01% -0.046 0.7717 -0.168
B 25465 43.22% 31.5 75.83% -0.124 0.6374 -0.044
C 26479 40.78% 32.58 77.89% 0.104 0.6569 0.076
D 22925 42.16% 31.38 76.58% 0.043 0.8091 -0.313
E 8583 42.15% 32.45 77.58% 0.094 0.72 -0.038
F 10592 42.0% 32.76 76.53% 0.02 0.7409 -0.169
G 9928 41.68% 34.43 77.76% -0.001 0.6808 0.268
H 10286 40.43% 35.32 78.65% -0.068 0.6128 0.375

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2461 0.0% 20.44 73.47% -1.216 0.9971 -0.315
Not Using Events or Tokens 9599 40.96% 25.62 79.03% 0.667 0.8681 0.322
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2997 13.1% 40.22 92.46% 0.677 -0.5669 1.73
Start of Game Growth 4328 13.2% 38.24 92.49% 0.759 0.3811 -0.468
Unlimited Undo 9800 29.82% 34.6 86.54% 0.05 -0.4261 0.92
Using Tokens but Not Events 11673 28.19% 32.33 84.72% -0.127 0.0459 -0.042

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9198 22.69 25.68%
II 26996 31.12 73.84%
III 23927 34.69 90.44%
IV 10114 37.96 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2361
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21154
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18931
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9980
Lose: Invader deck ran out 586
Lose: Adversary condition 5275
Win: Sacrifice victory 167
Lose: Scenario condition 1023
Win: Scenario condition 1402
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8814
Lose: Spirit destroyed 542

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)