Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 296 31.19% 29.95 1.238 88.18% 0.595 1.1464
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 305 42.05% 32.46 2.347 82.95% -0.399 0.4788
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 412 60.1% 37.0 5.68 72.09% -0.327 0.792
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 497 65.05% 36.27 2.236 60.56% -1.358 0.1733
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 337 82.74% 35.55 4.385 42.43% -0.938 0.6493
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 109 86.24% 38.95 3.655 39.45% -1.353 0.2099
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 689 85.03% 34.34 3.599 23.8% -1.872 0.3888
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1719 29.92% 25.98 -0.606 90.87% 0.141 0.3851
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1795 33.01% 30.67 1.556 91.53% 0.776 0.6499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2434 40.09% 38.87 4.781 88.62% -0.103 0.0126
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2252 46.65% 45.09 7.487 84.46% -0.562 -0.1878
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1400 47.11% 46.92 10.416 82.14% 0.156 0.6221
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 908 62.03% 50.81 10.843 73.57% -0.629 0.3562
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2209 70.6% 48.99 8.325 59.03% -1.497 0.0783
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1181 29.65% 25.81 0.141 89.16% 0.536 1.052
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1020 38.28% 33.24 3.577 82.35% 0.669 1.2787
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1434 49.54% 33.29 2.103 71.06% -1.238 -0.1109
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1494 61.83% 34.55 -0.079 52.21% -2.266 -0.5224
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1275 58.62% 39.81 3.548 53.33% -2.281 -0.7025
The Kingdom of England 5 9 497 68.9% 41.02 7.402 41.05% -1.835 -0.0978
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2704 53.97% 47.3 7.268 44.19% -2.078 0.2214
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 691 42.32% 29.05 -2.656 86.25% -0.86 0.0427
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 578 57.74% 29.97 -1.721 72.49% -1.188 -0.2974
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1320 49.24% 32.72 -0.769 50.15% -3.086 -0.6831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1185 54.39% 39.57 2.057 52.07% -2.507 -0.1231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 788 53.17% 42.08 6.056 48.73% -1.834 0.6411
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 391 62.92% 46.96 7.339 49.62% -1.038 1.0402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2023 61.41% 48.62 5.491 40.88% -3.004 -0.637
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 31 35.48% 27.45 -0.94 93.55% 0.687 0.5624
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 36 13.89% 33.75 2.261 80.56% -0.93 -0.0852
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 37 45.95% 37.73 4.82 86.49% -0.068 0.761
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 68 44.12% 42.69 7.259 73.53% -0.756 0.1139
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 33 51.52% 44.58 7.704 72.73% -0.68 0.5556
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 20 40.0% 56.85 12.946 90.0% 0.244 1.6756
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 127 53.54% 44.19 6.836 39.37% -2.305 -0.6063
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 713 33.04% 24.24 -0.873 88.78% 0.193 0.3595
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 720 35.06% 29.46 1.831 88.61% 0.842 0.6187
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 985 43.33% 32.54 2.248 85.89% 0.351 0.8039
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1100 57.17% 40.74 6.431 83.36% 0.032 0.3414
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 750 69.07% 38.95 7.297 71.2% 0.281 1.2331
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 302 66.45% 40.54 8.949 63.91% 0.077 1.0577
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1605 65.54% 43.79 7.478 61.68% -0.723 0.4691
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 249 25.3% 27.11 0.021 93.57% -0.176 -0.2329
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 233 49.14% 31.27 1.932 78.11% 0.336 1.1105
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 222 49.77% 38.78 1.298 83.78% -0.732 -0.0217
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 309 63.96% 41.03 8.106 67.96% -0.348 0.9904
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 280 52.5% 47.92 9.302 76.79% -0.488 0.8967
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 99 75.76% 45.57 8.824 45.45% -1.049 0.8885
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 791 85.34% 47.13 4.658 22.63% -2.306 -0.2869

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 72 23.61% 25.65 94.44% 0.385 0.1827
Blitz 0 513 45.12% 27.5 66.28% -0.58 -0.3222 -1.268
Dahan Insurrection 4 1206 34.39% 50.82 68.99% -0.174 0.2392 -0.179
Despicable Theft 2 109 53.21% 35.86 64.22% -0.638 -0.1916 -0.687
Elemental Invocation 1 154 61.04% 29.49 56.49% -0.453 0.0327 -0.686
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4435 15.7% 42.07 78.87% -0.272 0.0336 0.425
Powers Long Forgotten 1 181 53.11% 29.67 75.69% -0.032 0.1501 -0.448
Rituals of Terror 3 182 37.65% 39.97 85.71% -1.378 -1.2571 0.972
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 129 66.67% 33.7 68.22% -0.101 0.3139 0.5
Second Wave 0 2432 37.06% 29.42 81.46% -0.722 -0.1565 -0.26
Varied Terrains 2 21 42.86% 28.0 80.95% -0.017 0.5088
Ward the Shores 2 297 44.48% 32.25 67.68% -0.663 0.4991 -0.256

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1892 31.47 55.13% -1.317 0.5861 -0.635
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2032 33.63 59.99% -1.692 0.0379 -0.194
All Things Weaken 981 31.39 52.5% -1.623 0.3627 -0.833
Back Against the Wall 1894 32.15 53.43% -1.226 0.5903 -0.642
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1765 29.85 54.11% -1.599 0.4517 -0.638
Downward Spiral 4171 28.5 61.42% -1.493 0.4997 -0.58
Erosion of Will 1830 30.11 51.42% -1.981 0.1022 -0.905
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 484 35.9 79.75% 0.111 0.5521 0.209
Memory Fades to Dust 4223 28.25 58.3% -2.135 -0.051 -0.858
Power Corrodes the Spirit 991 30.08 55.5% -1.869 0.0696 -0.672
Promising Farmlands 1939 29.46 53.22% -1.824 0.2218 -0.85
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 307 36.76 86.32% -0.558 -0.1333 0.604
Thriving Communities 1035 29.68 53.43% -1.919 0.0644 -0.911
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.626
Unnatural Proliferation 1117 32.24 57.74% -1.202 0.7627 -0.616
Untended Land Crumbles 1085 29.79 52.81% -1.754 0.2388 -0.842

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 24401 43.02% 31.55 75.93% 0.047 0.8448 -0.19
B 23659 43.3% 31.33 75.86% 0.082 0.8254 -0.036
C 24798 40.71% 32.42 77.86% 0.053 0.6211 0.092
D 21479 42.07% 31.26 76.72% -0.271 0.5244 -0.309
E 7630 42.02% 32.22 77.71% 0.155 0.8017 -0.037
F 9735 41.96% 32.48 76.61% -0.23 0.494 -0.203
G 9130 41.4% 34.4 77.86% 0.019 0.7507 0.26
H 9487 40.37% 35.4 78.74% 0.172 0.8848 0.41

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2353 0.0% 20.45 73.14% -2.177 -0.0479 -0.329
Not Using Events or Tokens 9088 41.15% 25.65 78.88% 0.377 0.5524 0.346
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2807 12.77% 38.75 92.91% 0.537 0.3952 1.565
Start of Game Growth 4032 13.0% 37.21 92.86% 0.523 -0.2379 -0.795
Unlimited Undo 9134 29.59% 34.54 86.76% 0.715 0.1106 0.947
Using Tokens but Not Events 10841 27.56% 32.28 85.33% 0.693 0.5366 -0.066

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8546 22.56 25.65%
II 25062 30.98 73.97%
III 22193 34.53 90.44%
IV 9383 37.77 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2191
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19618
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17597
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9258
Lose: Invader deck ran out 540
Lose: Adversary condition 4865
Win: Sacrifice victory 148
Lose: Scenario condition 959
Win: Scenario condition 1320
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8193
Lose: Spirit destroyed 495

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)