Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 148 22.3% 24.5 92.57% 0.868 0.6126 -0.453
Blitz 0 612 42.81% 29.8 66.5% 0.214 0.4112 -0.577
Dahan Insurrection 4 1408 35.16% 51.43 67.26% 1.434 0.9914 -0.069
Despicable Theft 2 131 51.91% 34.65 64.12% -0.045 0.7669 -0.533
Elemental Invocation 1 181 61.88% 30.17 58.56% 0.28 0.9832 -0.542
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5128 15.27% 42.63 78.08% 0.729 0.0844 0.321
Powers Long Forgotten 1 207 52.71% 29.54 76.33% 0.307 0.9423 -0.324
Rituals of Terror 3 202 36.84% 40.21 85.15% 1.016 1.1175 0.91
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 133 66.92% 33.57 68.42% 0.364 1.3733 0.449
Second Wave 0 2831 35.44% 29.7 81.81% 0.466 0.5317 -0.479
Varied Terrains 2 71 47.89% 31.23 61.97% -0.103 0.5198 -0.276
Ward the Shores 2 321 43.63% 32.71 68.54% -0.802 0.2821 -0.068

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2088 31.47 55.36% -0.06 0.1819 -0.509
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2260 33.59 59.25% -0.121 -0.1989 -0.167
All Things Weaken 1239 30.81 50.61% -0.798 -0.4052 -0.729
Attenuated Essence 67 27.09 40.3% -0.375 -0.2687 -0.669
Back Against the Wall 2135 32.44 53.82% -0.141 -0.0836 -0.522
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 55 32.24 54.55% 0.914 1.1158 -0.068
Burn Brightest Before the End 57 32.54 56.14% 0.012 0.2219 -0.257
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1965 29.93 53.84% -0.456 -0.0326 -0.508
Downward Spiral 4635 28.05 60.45% -0.146 0.0891 -0.539
Erosion of Will 2062 30.3 51.7% 0.477 0.786 -0.774
Intensifying Exploitation 49 27.73 46.94% -0.227 0.0603 -0.2
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 587 36.03 77.85% 0.641 0.1468 0.319
Memory Fades to Dust 4693 28.05 57.47% -0.253 0.0829 -0.714
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1223 30.34 55.68% 0.268 0.4885 -0.451
Promising Farmlands 2170 29.36 52.9% 0.272 0.7256 -0.679
Shattered Fragments of Power 64 29.98 43.75% -0.307 -0.2562 -0.243
Slow Dissolution of Will 77 30.83 50.65% -0.148 0.251 -0.189
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 373 36.45 83.91% 1.15 0.4388 0.464
The Border of Life and Death 22 28.82 45.45% -0.005 -0.3403 -0.147
Thriving Communities 1282 29.58 52.11% -0.398 -0.0349 -0.762
Thriving Crops 21 34.81 61.9% 0.427 0.2292 -0.163
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.524
Unnatural Proliferation 1412 32.14 55.59% -0.181 0.0344 -0.642
Untended Land Crumbles 1332 29.43 51.95% -0.331 -0.0494 -0.732

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 28290 42.66% 30.96 74.16% -0.253 0.4866 -0.229
B 27412 42.88% 30.91 74.12% -0.215 0.5113 -0.038
C 28422 40.34% 32.05 76.65% 0.153 0.7356 0.094
D 24364 41.85% 30.92 75.45% 0.025 0.736 -0.305
E 9622 41.65% 31.67 75.61% 0.054 0.6189 0.02
F 11550 41.86% 32.31 75.06% 0.132 0.8024 -0.17
G 10751 41.23% 33.82 76.41% 0.172 0.8238 0.286
H 11088 40.34% 34.77 77.22% -0.043 0.5279 0.328

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2625 0.0% 19.95 71.7% -0.895 -0.1192 -0.506
Not Using Events or Tokens 10242 40.43% 24.88 77.19% 0.024 0.4034 0.19
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3212 12.81% 40.49 90.57% 0.228 -0.3896 1.637
Start of Game Growth 4662 12.71% 38.36 91.18% 1.409 1.0609 -0.249
Unlimited Undo 10470 29.77% 33.9 84.74% -0.219 -0.2256 0.851
Using Tokens but Not Events 12529 28.18% 31.79 83.33% 0.177 0.1663 -0.081

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10950 20.4 22.57%
II 28808 31.01 73.34%
III 25366 34.76 90.38%
IV 10645 38.07 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2470
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22427
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20081
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10503
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1480
Lose: Invader deck ran out 620
Lose: Adversary condition 5576
Win: Sacrifice victory 177
Lose: Scenario condition 1079
Win: Scenario condition 1454
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9327
Lose: Spirit destroyed 575

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)