Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 121 23.14% 25.16 94.21% 0.803 0.628
Blitz 0 571 43.75% 28.92 66.37% 0.016 0.3071 -0.872
Dahan Insurrection 4 1359 35.55% 51.24 66.81% 0.665 0.4212 -0.232
Despicable Theft 2 121 52.07% 35.21 65.29% -0.442 0.1827 -0.547
Elemental Invocation 1 172 60.47% 30.35 58.14% 0.051 0.8742 -0.523
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4883 15.18% 42.7 78.91% 0.582 0.0715 0.32
Powers Long Forgotten 1 196 52.6% 30.09 77.04% 0.645 1.0316 -0.381
Rituals of Terror 3 191 38.55% 39.94 84.82% -0.331 -0.5328 0.916
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 131 66.41% 33.52 67.94% -0.341 0.4702 0.462
Second Wave 0 2685 36.58% 29.57 81.68% 0.426 0.564 -0.402
Varied Terrains 2 52 50.0% 33.4 67.31% -0.845 -0.3332 -0.026
Ward the Shores 2 315 43.83% 32.89 69.21% 0.343 1.2769 -0.14

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2035 31.57 55.68% -0.047 0.6788 -0.583
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2210 33.74 59.55% -0.169 0.3473 -0.211
All Things Weaken 1156 31.54 52.16% -1.036 -0.1922 -0.769
Attenuated Essence 14 35.71 71.43% 0.043 0.7565 -0.19
Back Against the Wall 2077 32.52 53.92% -0.262 0.3325 -0.6
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 27.0 38.46% -0.77 0.269 -0.676
Burn Brightest Before the End 15 38.73 66.67% 0.145 0.9701 0.087
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1891 30.26 54.31% -0.468 0.4565 -0.577
Downward Spiral 4491 28.33 61.01% -0.406 0.3359 -0.608
Erosion of Will 1991 30.26 51.63% -0.334 0.526 -0.938
Intensifying Exploitation 6 27.67 66.67% 0.021 1.0247 0.211
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 559 36.43 79.25% 0.997 0.7986 0.305
Memory Fades to Dust 4539 28.22 57.92% -0.779 0.1064 -0.799
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1145 30.36 55.9% -0.282 0.4149 -0.538
Promising Farmlands 2091 29.29 52.8% -0.516 0.4328 -0.828
Shattered Fragments of Power 14 31.36 42.86% -0.863 -0.1805 -0.315
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 38.87 52.17% -0.48 0.5828 -0.636
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 351 36.67 84.33% -0.141 -0.5868 0.395
Thriving Communities 1208 29.86 53.06% -0.407 0.5218 -0.796
Thriving Crops 5 41.4 60.0% 0.314 0.9128 0.28
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.602
Unnatural Proliferation 1324 32.32 56.42% -0.76 -0.0434 -0.667
Untended Land Crumbles 1260 29.92 52.62% -0.788 -0.0002 -0.81

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26741 42.86% 31.48 75.53% -0.187 0.7131 -0.178
B 26021 43.14% 31.34 75.4% -0.07 0.7329 -0.044
C 26992 40.69% 32.43 77.53% 0.119 0.7666 0.054
D 23297 42.01% 31.26 76.32% 0.025 0.8809 -0.305
E 8869 42.03% 32.23 76.99% 0.065 0.7595 -0.035
F 10855 41.95% 32.68 76.09% 0.086 0.8648 -0.155
G 10182 41.6% 34.19 77.28% -0.126 0.6344 0.266
H 10521 40.44% 35.17 78.33% 0.113 0.8308 0.383

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2502 0.0% 20.28 72.94% -1.081 0.1696 -0.246
Not Using Events or Tokens 9758 40.93% 25.43 78.43% 0.16 0.3941 0.251
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3058 12.93% 40.53 91.89% 0.062 -0.5435 1.682
Start of Game Growth 4404 13.09% 38.45 92.05% 1.749 1.2938 -0.412
Unlimited Undo 9950 29.84% 34.44 86.06% -0.109 -0.3012 0.906
Using Tokens but Not Events 11938 28.22% 32.12 84.24% -0.011 -0.0474 -0.051

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9641 21.93 24.73%
II 27503 31.09 73.67%
III 24329 34.71 90.43%
IV 10292 37.98 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2383
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21513
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19250
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10153
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 405
Lose: Invader deck ran out 597
Lose: Adversary condition 5352
Win: Sacrifice victory 171
Lose: Scenario condition 1033
Win: Scenario condition 1413
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8947
Lose: Spirit destroyed 548

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-15 02:23:33 (Pacific Time)