Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 224 28.25% 29.48 -0.109 89.29% -0.324 -0.0405
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 214 37.74% 32.4 1.606 85.51% -0.468 -0.0571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 298 58.39% 37.6 4.336 76.85% -0.808 0.0685
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 356 64.33% 36.03 3.666 62.08% -1.522 -0.2758
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 276 82.91% 34.43 3.494 41.3% -2.032 -0.5303
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 82 87.8% 38.45 5.369 42.68% -1.819 0.1339
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 513 85.74% 31.99 2.451 21.25% -3.007 -0.9639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1407 30.48% 25.77 -1.683 90.76% 0.068 0.1102
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1386 34.51% 30.27 0.675 91.34% 0.279 0.2606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1980 39.05% 38.75 4.84 88.89% -0.007 0.0062
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1846 45.07% 45.43 8.016 86.57% -0.219 0.0684
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1082 46.82% 46.47 8.67 81.98% -0.564 -0.1966
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 707 61.76% 50.45 10.864 72.7% -0.911 -0.0846
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1876 68.15% 49.54 9.808 61.73% -1.504 -0.2656
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1008 28.61% 25.5 -1.867 89.38% -0.156 0.1755
The Kingdom of England 1 3 841 38.81% 33.22 2.016 82.28% -0.521 -0.0074
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1199 48.7% 33.26 2.017 70.81% -1.217 -0.2494
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1231 60.46% 34.9 2.881 53.45% -1.976 -0.3973
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1003 59.86% 38.92 4.745 52.44% -2.026 -0.5274
The Kingdom of England 5 9 407 68.32% 39.88 5.224 40.54% -2.524 -0.4509
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2202 52.23% 47.23 8.249 45.59% -2.869 -0.6213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 601 41.33% 29.24 -0.083 86.69% -0.21 0.3044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 450 56.15% 30.21 0.456 75.11% -0.857 0.0422
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1091 48.99% 32.53 1.669 50.5% -2.252 -0.1089
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 967 53.0% 39.98 5.153 53.26% -2.176 0.0205
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 669 53.36% 42.08 6.39 49.78% -2.292 -0.1336
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 330 62.73% 45.96 8.152 49.7% -2.209 -0.3913
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1423 57.49% 46.81 8.624 42.87% -2.612 -0.5145
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 600 32.25% 24.03 -2.558 88.67% -0.108 -0.0224
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 587 34.13% 29.19 0.013 87.56% -0.148 -0.1149
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 803 41.98% 32.43 1.537 86.18% -0.192 0.043
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 908 57.4% 40.32 5.633 83.81% -0.241 0.0454
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 547 66.91% 38.44 4.674 69.84% -1.006 -0.2227
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 264 66.16% 40.17 5.611 62.88% -1.302 -0.1352
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1265 64.6% 43.26 6.995 62.13% -1.443 -0.3186
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 158 19.62% 26.46 -1.782 97.47% 0.741 0.6392
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 159 46.2% 31.72 1.187 81.76% -0.704 0.0746
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 146 47.59% 38.82 4.498 87.67% -0.189 0.2301
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 201 66.0% 38.96 4.894 64.18% -1.444 -0.19
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 136 63.97% 45.85 8.288 73.53% -0.989 0.1279
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 63 77.78% 42.92 6.778 42.86% -2.175 -0.176
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 350 86.29% 41.44 6.09 27.71% -2.842 -0.964

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 495 44.68% 27.7 -2.103 69.49% -0.624 -0.055
Dahan Insurrection 4 1035 22.24% 48.86 9.17 82.61% -0.053 0.3448
Despicable Theft 2 65 52.31% 37.85 2.486 67.69% -0.431 -0.1619
Elemental Invocation 1 113 59.29% 27.49 -1.78 51.33% -0.922 -0.4575
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4357 15.81% 42.04 4.215 79.07% -0.175 0.191
Powers Long Forgotten 1 241 57.63% 29.67 -0.35 68.05% -0.622 -0.1772
Rituals of Terror 3 206 35.71% 40.27 4.837 84.95% -0.042 0.6034
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 154 71.52% 33.33 2.04 64.94% -0.574 0.0707
Second Wave 0 2551 42.63% 29.45 -1.087 78.2% -0.68 -0.2511
Ward the Shores 2 358 43.71% 32.8 0.929 70.11% -0.904 0.1303

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1512 30.92 -1.729 54.63% -1.792 0.2807
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1672 33.32 -0.413 60.29% -1.53 0.3878
All Things Weaken 653 30.36 -1.779 53.45% -1.879 0.2917
Back Against the Wall 1550 31.7 -1.365 53.16% -1.839 0.2519
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1392 29.23 -2.495 55.24% -1.732 0.4926
Downward Spiral 3471 28.21 -2.245 61.8% -1.67 0.3534
Erosion of Will 1447 29.86 -2.155 52.8% -1.914 0.2953
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 338 35.47 0.849 78.99% -0.553 0.1339
Memory Fades to Dust 3540 27.94 -2.464 58.67% -1.809 0.4098
Power Corrodes the Spirit 656 29.14 -2.321 55.18% -1.842 0.1817
Promising Farmlands 1579 28.79 -2.749 53.51% -1.901 0.313
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 208 35.75 1.221 87.98% -0.008 0.4015
Thriving Communities 712 29.07 -2.319 55.9% -1.873 0.2215
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.536 52.1% -1.85 0.3763
Unnatural Proliferation 762 30.54 -1.412 58.53% -1.696 0.3901
Untended Land Crumbles 702 29.2 -2.284 53.42% -1.863 0.2432

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 19904 42.54% 31.18 -0.476 75.95% -0.105 -0.8652
B 19153 43.07% 31.09 -0.379 76.13% -0.084 -0.9409
C 20079 40.79% 32.29 0.253 77.8% 0.075 -1.0134
D 17685 41.98% 31.05 -0.407 77.14% -0.056 -0.9063
E 5129 41.45% 32.04 -0.13 78.14% 0.006 -0.9587
F 7437 41.39% 32.41 -0.123 76.93% -0.062 -0.9758
G 7140 41.03% 35.02 0.947 78.19% 0.09 -0.8158
H 7335 39.35% 35.82 1.209 79.73% 0.163 -0.7511

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1946 0.0% 20.28 -5.084 72.82% -2.286 -0.2298
Not Using Events or Tokens 7488 41.84% 25.47 -2.516 78.47% -0.239 -0.0233
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2324 12.98% 38.97 2.923 93.12% 0.802 0.1147
Start of Game Growth 3164 13.34% 37.84 2.355 92.95% 0.601 0.1304
Unlimited Undo 6924 31.27% 34.69 1.15 85.99% 0.459 0.0395
Using Tokens but Not Events 9246 27.77% 32.33 -0.261 85.31% 0.173 0.1202

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6663 22.35 26.01%
II 20150 30.84 74.27%
III 17581 34.35 90.25%
IV 7537 37.52 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1349
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 12366
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5832
Lose: Invader deck ran out 448
Lose: Adversary condition 3791
Win: Sacrifice victory 112
Lose: Scenario condition 749
Win: Scenario condition 1104
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6482
Lose: Spirit destroyed 400

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)