Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 141 22.7% 24.82 93.62% 0.956 0.7691
Blitz 0 598 43.51% 29.75 66.56% 0.357 0.5073 -0.639
Dahan Insurrection 4 1400 35.36% 51.44 67.14% 0.955 0.7257 -0.089
Despicable Theft 2 124 50.81% 34.93 65.32% -0.25 0.4912 -0.545
Elemental Invocation 1 179 61.45% 30.35 59.22% 1.203 1.9776 -0.548
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5058 15.09% 42.61 78.35% 0.654 0.0327 0.312
Powers Long Forgotten 1 205 53.23% 29.83 77.07% 0.951 1.4525 -0.341
Rituals of Terror 3 199 37.43% 39.8 84.92% 0.598 0.6608 0.827
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 133 66.92% 33.57 68.42% 0.077 1.1174 0.44
Second Wave 0 2805 35.73% 29.7 81.75% 0.687 0.7448 -0.405
Varied Terrains 2 66 48.48% 30.18 59.09% -0.488 0.017 -0.495
Ward the Shores 2 318 43.41% 32.81 68.55% -0.563 0.6111 -0.101

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2066 31.49 55.47% -0.06 0.188 -0.539
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2241 33.67 59.39% 0.289 0.2745 -0.198
All Things Weaken 1208 30.98 50.99% -0.733 -0.308 -0.748
Attenuated Essence 44 28.05 47.73% -0.253 -0.0911 -0.797
Back Against the Wall 2112 32.43 53.88% -0.047 0.0613 -0.559
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 41 27.46 48.78% 0.195 0.5581 -0.138
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 32.75 52.27% -0.019 0.2481 -0.467
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1944 30.03 54.06% -0.371 0.1051 -0.538
Downward Spiral 4577 28.16 60.72% -0.037 0.2667 -0.575
Erosion of Will 2040 30.34 51.76% 0.484 0.8509 -0.807
Intensifying Exploitation 31 28.03 51.61% -0.181 0.1715 -0.595
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 578 36.27 78.72% 1.16 0.6489 0.317
Memory Fades to Dust 4643 28.14 57.55% -0.36 0.0753 -0.746
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1196 30.38 55.94% 0.314 0.5763 -0.47
Promising Farmlands 2139 29.32 52.88% 0.095 0.618 -0.736
Shattered Fragments of Power 46 30.96 43.48% -0.387 -0.2703 -0.147
Slow Dissolution of Will 57 29.18 50.88% -0.377 0.106 -0.422
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 365 36.45 83.84% 0.542 -0.0835 0.412
The Border of Life and Death 18 27.17 44.44% -0.305 -0.5556 -0.292
Thriving Communities 1255 29.83 52.91% 0.004 0.437 -0.731
Thriving Crops 14 32.43 64.29% 0.558 0.5484 0.162
Tipping Point 666 29.27 52.1% -0.557
Unnatural Proliferation 1381 32.17 55.9% -0.176 0.0852 -0.652
Untended Land Crumbles 1311 29.54 52.1% -0.524 -0.2081 -0.754

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 27754 42.68% 31.13 74.61% -0.252 0.6079 -0.216
B 26975 42.77% 31.04 74.55% -0.139 0.6753 -0.04
C 27949 40.42% 32.19 76.98% 0.173 0.8599 0.095
D 24034 41.88% 31.01 75.69% 0.008 0.8443 -0.299
E 9367 41.71% 31.81 75.88% -0.096 0.557 -0.011
F 11343 41.75% 32.37 75.43% 0.173 0.9248 -0.175
G 10559 41.32% 33.93 76.75% 0.12 0.8914 0.284
H 10918 40.36% 34.9 77.61% 0.034 0.7171 0.349

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2585 0.0% 20.04 71.99% -0.82 0.0245 -0.52
Not Using Events or Tokens 10083 40.48% 25.04 77.47% -0.113 0.2134 0.19
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3188 12.85% 40.43 90.72% 0.442 -0.1506 1.65
Start of Game Growth 4595 12.83% 38.4 91.34% 1.182 0.9136 -0.273
Unlimited Undo 10343 29.81% 33.95 84.84% -0.37 -0.3742 0.837
Using Tokens but Not Events 12331 28.18% 31.9 83.68% 0.276 0.2158 -0.058

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10524 20.88 23.22%
II 28387 31.03 73.47%
III 25033 34.74 90.4%
IV 10527 38.02 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2443
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22134
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19818
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10386
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1150
Lose: Invader deck ran out 610
Lose: Adversary condition 5495
Win: Sacrifice victory 174
Lose: Scenario condition 1061
Win: Scenario condition 1445
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9193
Lose: Spirit destroyed 562

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-02 03:54:23 (Pacific Time)