Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 171 28.24% 29.52 -0.255 89.47% -0.281 0.0024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 163 41.98% 32.87 1.867 87.73% -0.136 0.2586
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 216 60.65% 38.28 4.678 79.63% -0.57 0.291
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 265 67.92% 35.21 3.231 60.0% -1.531 -0.2809
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 217 83.33% 34.85 3.676 43.32% -1.888 -0.3533
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 89.47% 39.66 5.973 46.05% -1.63 0.4385
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 395 85.53% 31.88 2.312 21.01% -2.981 -0.9039
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1193 30.62% 25.95 -1.679 90.95% 0.134 0.1766
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1181 35.77% 30.24 0.553 91.11% 0.293 0.267
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1714 39.27% 38.8 4.731 89.09% 0.029 0.0293
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1543 44.92% 45.31 7.839 85.87% -0.25 0.0434
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 914 47.35% 46.67 8.669 82.6% -0.486 -0.116
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 607 60.73% 50.29 10.633 71.99% -0.958 -0.1199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1697 65.86% 50.05 9.776 62.93% -1.487 -0.2388
The Kingdom of England 0 1 862 27.83% 25.56 -1.981 88.86% -0.199 0.132
The Kingdom of England 1 3 765 39.26% 33.28 1.95 82.09% -0.502 -0.0128
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1026 48.39% 33.18 1.858 69.69% -1.262 -0.2972
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1072 61.67% 34.34 2.538 51.96% -1.996 -0.4157
The Kingdom of England 4 7 844 57.95% 39.55 4.959 55.09% -1.923 -0.4091
The Kingdom of England 5 9 370 68.39% 39.82 5.057 40.27% -2.529 -0.4583
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1954 50.54% 48.15 8.467 47.54% -2.802 -0.5448
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 496 40.61% 29.32 -0.178 86.29% -0.233 0.2926
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 403 55.5% 30.25 0.352 74.69% -0.862 0.0266
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 986 48.48% 32.34 1.492 49.7% -2.275 -0.1474
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 825 52.91% 39.67 4.884 52.36% -2.166 0.0186
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 603 51.74% 42.79 6.65 51.41% -2.201 -0.0504
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 290 61.38% 45.89 7.952 48.97% -2.252 -0.4254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1252 56.8% 46.85 8.528 42.97% -2.6 -0.4718
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 515 32.67% 24.07 -2.652 87.77% -0.177 -0.0893
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 527 34.61% 29.08 -0.134 86.91% -0.181 -0.17
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 704 42.29% 32.46 1.453 86.36% -0.155 0.0645
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 779 57.4% 40.49 5.649 83.95% -0.197 0.0863
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 459 67.1% 38.39 4.591 69.28% -0.987 -0.2168
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 240 66.11% 40.48 5.642 63.75% -1.251 -0.0841
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1101 61.53% 43.87 7.089 63.31% -1.435 -0.3029
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 111 17.12% 26.28 -2.039 97.3% 0.607 0.4849
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 123 46.34% 31.83 1.191 82.11% -0.654 0.0615
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 104 44.66% 37.7 3.93 84.62% -0.499 -0.0606
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 138 65.69% 39.23 4.928 65.94% -1.33 -0.0708
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 97 60.82% 47.03 8.762 76.29% -0.855 0.2856
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 53 81.13% 40.94 5.666 37.74% -2.309 -0.2489
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 249 87.95% 40.67 5.609 26.91% -2.833 -0.8972

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 427 43.84% 28.14 -2.016 70.26% -0.554 0.0224
Dahan Insurrection 4 872 20.88% 48.75 9.042 84.4% -0.034 0.3663
Despicable Theft 2 7 28.57% 38.86 3.938 100.0% 0.402 0.8312
Elemental Invocation 1 36 33.33% 27.42 -2.361 63.89% -1.114 -0.7327
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3868 15.84% 42.26 4.174 78.7% -0.175 0.1905
Powers Long Forgotten 1 213 59.62% 29.78 -0.325 68.08% -0.573 -0.1317
Rituals of Terror 3 180 37.82% 39.93 4.511 83.89% -0.131 0.4967
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 139 72.79% 33.6 2.087 64.75% -0.495 0.1546
Second Wave 0 2061 46.34% 29.96 -0.862 76.61% -0.628 -0.2114
Ward the Shores 2 325 42.45% 33.29 1.077 71.08% -0.843 0.1931

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1307 31.03 -1.787 54.78% -1.784 0.2861
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1474 33.76 -0.31 61.74% -1.453 0.4649
All Things Weaken 482 30.55 -1.856 52.9% -1.842 0.313
Back Against the Wall 1339 31.33 -1.63 52.73% -1.877 0.2191
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1221 29.28 -2.584 54.55% -1.737 0.4864
Downward Spiral 3040 28.34 -2.296 61.68% -1.673 0.3438
Erosion of Will 1261 29.78 -2.24 52.82% -1.895 0.3145
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 240 35.77 0.864 78.33% -0.545 0.159
Memory Fades to Dust 3095 28.0 -2.545 58.8% -1.795 0.4198
Power Corrodes the Spirit 485 29.38 -2.386 54.64% -1.842 0.1782
Promising Farmlands 1359 28.74 -2.902 52.47% -1.925 0.2876
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 142 36.19 1.196 87.32% -0.12 0.3151
Thriving Communities 526 29.27 -2.275 56.65% -1.812 0.2859
Tipping Point 666 29.27 -2.613 52.1% -1.843 0.3756
Unnatural Proliferation 537 30.96 -1.258 60.71% -1.539 0.5386
Untended Land Crumbles 491 29.49 -2.201 54.79% -1.782 0.3163

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 17111 42.41% 31.36 -0.512 76.03% -0.084 -1.1731
B 16380 43.33% 31.21 -0.424 76.11% -0.07 -1.2552
C 17253 41.23% 32.46 0.242 77.33% 0.066 -1.3487
D 15414 41.93% 31.14 -0.493 76.85% -0.07 -1.2472
E 3607 42.12% 32.29 -0.155 77.74% -0.009 -1.2856
F 5923 41.21% 32.93 -0.057 76.77% -0.056 -1.2987
G 5877 40.74% 35.98 1.139 77.78% 0.091 -1.1394
H 6089 39.45% 36.66 1.354 79.14% 0.158 -1.0825

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1615 0.0% 20.21 -5.235 73.0% -2.202 -0.1584
Not Using Events or Tokens 6497 41.31% 25.55 -2.579 78.97% -0.233 -0.0142
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1975 13.76% 40.6 3.163 92.41% 0.817 0.1127
Start of Game Growth 2527 14.18% 40.12 2.982 91.97% 0.543 0.0892
Unlimited Undo 5411 33.17% 35.05 1.043 84.37% 0.375 -0.0371
Using Tokens but Not Events 7818 28.66% 32.93 -0.172 84.54% 0.182 0.1346

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5753 22.34 26.18%
II 17081 30.75 74.23%
III 14776 34.26 90.21%
IV 6217 37.47 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1123
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9887
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9024
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4537
Lose: Invader deck ran out 388
Lose: Adversary condition 3265
Win: Sacrifice victory 92
Lose: Scenario condition 663
Win: Scenario condition 965
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5469
Lose: Spirit destroyed 340

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)