Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 12507 38.98% 28.89 0.26 80.9% -0.214 -0.0037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 8858 42.56% 32.96 1.156 79.0% -0.448 -0.0135
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10788 57.69% 36.08 2.099 68.85% -0.767 -0.0349
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12440 64.56% 36.1 1.855 61.51% -1.091 -0.033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8629 79.4% 38.68 2.766 52.09% -1.342 -0.0475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4012 81.21% 37.65 2.088 42.85% -1.521 0.0734
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 33916 76.5% 39.87 1.839 39.87% -2.113 -0.1721
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 58489 38.92% 24.36 -0.962 82.3% -0.085 0.0126
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 42416 42.41% 28.44 0.585 82.21% 0.06 -0.0321
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 50779 46.86% 36.7 3.999 81.5% 0.011 -0.0525
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 55566 53.5% 41.81 5.525 76.96% -0.327 -0.0658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 52902 48.64% 45.67 8.314 78.71% -0.096 -0.0331
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29290 58.58% 48.45 9.196 67.86% -0.486 -0.0421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 93208 72.55% 46.29 5.119 55.95% -1.358 -0.0755
The Kingdom of England 0 1 44648 37.42% 24.47 -0.504 80.31% -0.057 0.1183
The Kingdom of England 1 3 25989 41.88% 31.74 2.201 76.05% -0.156 0.0581
The Kingdom of England 2 4 37458 50.7% 32.11 0.951 68.89% -0.754 -0.0011
The Kingdom of England 3 6 36499 63.68% 34.38 1.236 54.42% -1.244 -0.0824
The Kingdom of England 4 7 40931 52.66% 41.76 4.09 63.37% -1.117 -0.1017
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16390 61.82% 42.11 4.564 49.08% -1.515 0.0275
The Kingdom of England 6 11 93602 61.68% 43.81 1.697 43.04% -2.2 -0.1807
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 25320 43.76% 27.91 0.167 76.52% -0.28 0.0737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 15232 57.3% 27.9 -2.52 64.11% -1.222 -0.2533
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 28540 45.61% 33.06 2.503 50.73% -1.164 -0.0756
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 29385 56.11% 37.38 2.006 46.1% -1.604 -0.216
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18874 52.73% 41.89 5.47 48.62% -1.414 0.0195
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9117 56.12% 46.96 8.538 51.49% -1.111 -0.1389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 82729 55.23% 50.08 8.573 49.55% -1.447 -0.0914
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2378 28.57% 28.08 0.565 85.37% 0.309 0.2225
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1971 36.1% 31.4 1.487 73.41% -0.414 0.0195
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2342 42.13% 33.01 1.845 69.3% -0.534 -0.1294
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3727 46.62% 41.12 6.065 72.28% -0.421 -0.0891
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3508 53.71% 40.34 5.233 62.74% -0.736 -0.172
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3127 57.02% 42.19 5.297 58.62% -0.917 -0.1772
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15977 64.82% 45.61 5.543 51.23% -1.419 -0.1422
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 31355 39.91% 23.97 -1.014 81.38% -0.064 0.0863
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 18638 42.06% 28.54 0.649 81.3% 0.029 0.0188
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23269 49.82% 30.41 0.988 77.29% -0.257 -0.0246
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 28955 57.92% 38.19 3.988 75.72% -0.362 -0.0158
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 19624 67.34% 37.17 3.317 65.91% -0.694 -0.0775
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8953 70.08% 37.53 3.646 56.63% -0.974 -0.0261
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 61745 67.95% 41.95 5.025 60.32% -0.923 -0.1181
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9726 34.71% 26.96 -0.279 86.02% -0.042 0.0004
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6502 48.1% 30.75 -0.088 72.21% -0.666 -0.0626
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7772 46.53% 36.38 2.808 77.62% -0.385 -0.0929
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 9365 60.6% 38.51 1.825 61.69% -1.231 -0.1251
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7495 57.9% 44.15 3.232 65.87% -1.216 -0.186
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4700 68.15% 46.0 5.425 50.43% -1.426 0.0063
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 35994 71.95% 50.45 3.387 46.81% -2.109 -0.1522

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 16582 44.96% 27.73 66.88% -0.173 -0.0263 -1.116
Dahan Insurrection 4 15229 29.8% 51.03 74.73% 0.271 0.0644 0.368
Despicable Theft 2 2186 45.08% 32.82 74.06% -0.496 0.1872 -0.27
Elemental Invocation 1 3289 52.22% 28.78 67.59% -0.866 -0.135 -1.336
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 58259 22.39% 44.17 73.77% 0.668 0.0612 0.124
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6187 53.31% 30.37 67.85% -0.599 -0.1104 -0.527
Rituals of Terror 3 6051 50.38% 35.07 65.91% -0.755 -0.6503 -0.584
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3919 70.88% 32.45 61.44% -0.89 0.1022 -0.844
Second Wave 0 55433 42.64% 28.16 74.33% -0.042 0.0209 -0.482
The Great River 3 3386 52.46% 30.3 57.03% -1.251 0.0975 -1.622
Varied Terrains 2 1020 47.84% 28.29 62.16% -0.676 -0.1137 -1.889
Ward the Shores 2 6493 49.95% 30.79 61.07% -0.924 0.2851 -1.019

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 68804 30.29 51.21% -0.346 -0.0747 -0.921
Aid From Lesser Spirits 50860 32.56 55.0% -0.163 -0.1244 -0.609
All Things Weaken 40998 30.52 49.29% -0.536 -0.0759 -0.951
Attenuated Essence 1161 28.27 47.46% -0.286 -0.0806 -1.108
Back Against the Wall 48124 30.85 52.22% -0.243 -0.0807 -0.712
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1204 28.22 43.11% -0.449 -0.0349 -0.924
Burn Brightest Before the End 801 30.11 48.19% -0.313 -0.008 -0.95
Disintegrating Ecosystem 64974 27.37 47.78% -0.618 -0.091 -1.085
Downward Spiral 163472 24.29 56.0% -0.408 -0.0551 -0.793
Erosion of Will 67842 29.24 48.67% -0.473 -0.0645 -1.058
Intensifying Exploitation 1303 26.94 43.98% -0.446 -0.0589 -1.068
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14654 37.58 80.31% 0.443 -0.0825 -0.074
Memory Fades to Dust 164900 23.69 51.95% -0.531 -0.0501 -0.93
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40187 30.55 52.62% -0.375 -0.0704 -0.945
Promising Farmlands 65134 28.28 48.17% -0.698 -0.1119 -1.09
Shattered Fragments of Power 822 31.53 49.27% -0.269 -0.0906 -0.76
Slow Dissolution of Will 1209 27.41 40.28% -0.615 -0.0811 -1.236
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9562 37.94 83.69% 0.541 -0.1366 0.166
The Border of Life and Death 338 29.17 60.65% 0.11 -0.0198 -0.577
Thriving Communities 39535 29.68 50.06% -0.615 -0.1215 -0.963
Thriving Crops 525 28.39 52.57% -0.229 -0.1408 -0.712
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.09
Unnatural Proliferation 42233 31.52 50.19% -0.418 -0.1211 -0.913
Untended Land Crumbles 40003 29.9 50.84% -0.379 -0.0208 -1.014

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 365176 48.85% 28.2 69.17% -0.152 0.6883 -0.145
B 372628 47.74% 30.08 70.98% -0.062 0.7171 -0.001
C 476979 46.9% 30.4 74.26% 0.095 0.7487 0.069
D 345252 47.64% 29.09 71.08% -0.092 0.7072 -0.085
E 150377 47.28% 35.36 72.13% 0.166 0.795 0.096
F 179658 46.09% 33.26 73.0% 0.002 0.7219 -0.016
G 156350 47.21% 32.25 72.12% -0.051 0.6909 -0.028
H 163750 44.28% 33.56 74.5% 0.079 0.7275 0.097

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 199266 0.0% 18.9 69.36% -0.826 0.0571 -1.53
Not Using Events or Tokens 506407 46.23% 21.94 72.34% -0.287 0.045 -0.241
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57845 15.06% 38.26 89.63% 0.435 -0.0998 -0.083
Start of Game Growth 84291 17.73% 38.04 88.46% 0.424 0.0933 0.555
Unlimited Undo 215733 38.56% 34.2 80.43% 0.057 0.0352 0.754
Using Tokens but Not Events 219003 34.29% 29.06 80.5% -0.014 -0.0674 -0.186

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 356775 21.03 28.54%
II 928462 31.04 71.01%
III 643119 34.74 85.44%
IV 281402 38.02 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 101520
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 540899
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 641279
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 276806
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 29893
Lose: Invader deck ran out 36550
Lose: Adversary condition 135338
Win: Sacrifice victory 11631
Lose: Scenario condition 12588
Win: Scenario condition 18646
Lose: Blight pool ran out 385387
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19221

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)