Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 15393 45.74% 27.76 67.77% -0.893 -0.4499 -1.133
Dahan Insurrection 4 14108 29.83% 51.23 75.35% 0.079 0.1766 0.276
Despicable Theft 2 1916 45.9% 33.46 76.77% -0.339 0.1596 -0.176
Elemental Invocation 1 2915 52.04% 29.42 71.32% -0.59 -0.0446 -1.019
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55271 22.33% 44.3 74.04% -0.055 0.1767 0.041
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5818 54.3% 30.85 68.68% -0.631 -0.2238 -0.531
Rituals of Terror 3 5751 51.02% 35.55 66.68% -0.603 -0.8389 -0.597
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3701 71.46% 32.98 62.09% -0.328 -0.1019 -0.846
Second Wave 0 52348 42.81% 28.31 74.74% -0.74 -0.0471 -0.517
The Great River 3 3123 53.61% 31.08 58.44% -1.581 0.0005 -1.62
Varied Terrains 2 594 52.53% 32.09 72.22% -0.728 0.0583 -0.809
Ward the Shores 2 6135 50.36% 31.23 62.05% -0.904 -0.0227 -1.061

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 65598 30.36 51.44% -2.064 -0.0933 -1.031
Aid From Lesser Spirits 48546 32.57 55.15% -1.816 -0.0386 -0.725
All Things Weaken 37963 30.73 49.69% -2.144 -0.095 -1.054
Back Against the Wall 45830 30.86 52.34% -1.96 -0.0204 -0.824
Disintegrating Ecosystem 61908 27.45 48.05% -2.268 -0.1401 -1.196
Downward Spiral 156411 24.38 56.37% -1.972 -0.0106 -0.91
Erosion of Will 64644 29.3 48.88% -2.165 -0.0838 -1.176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13515 37.95 81.21% -0.506 -0.0042 -0.146
Memory Fades to Dust 157670 23.8 52.29% -2.183 -0.0423 -1.036
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37096 30.73 53.02% -2.032 -0.0518 -1.06
Promising Farmlands 61939 28.4 48.56% -2.116 -0.0944 -1.197
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8848 38.12 84.53% -0.5 -0.0037 0.079
Thriving Communities 36482 29.92 50.76% -2.141 -0.0818 -1.057
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.212
Unnatural Proliferation 39142 31.65 50.54% -2.032 -0.0755 -1.018
Untended Land Crumbles 36958 30.07 51.16% -2.08 -0.0467 -1.119

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 343236 49.28% 28.49 70.08% -0.165 0.5714 -0.149
B 351134 48.09% 30.36 71.84% -0.089 0.6086 -0.007
C 449092 47.17% 30.69 75.23% 0.19 0.6601 0.072
D 326060 47.96% 29.39 71.96% -0.1 0.6097 -0.081
E 135198 47.92% 35.96 73.31% 0.148 0.6929 0.099
F 166043 46.3% 33.7 74.12% -0.026 0.6354 -0.005
G 144730 47.49% 32.62 73.2% 0.041 0.6717 -0.029
H 151641 44.61% 33.89 75.46% 0.016 0.6804 0.089

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 188716 0.0% 19.25 70.71% -2.209 0.0196 -1.619
Not Using Events or Tokens 481092 46.48% 22.27 73.47% -0.16 0.0669 -0.241
Skip Initial Invader Actions 55038 15.12% 38.43 90.48% 0.849 -0.1314 0.005
Start of Game Growth 79822 17.72% 38.17 89.44% 0.649 0.1921 0.585
Unlimited Undo 201749 38.61% 34.54 81.87% 0.606 0.0544 0.824
Using Tokens but Not Events 204191 34.74% 29.38 81.44% -0.175 -0.0202 -0.19

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 314562 22.65 30.84%
II 875736 31.08 71.25%
III 609084 34.66 85.43%
IV 267341 37.91 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 96733
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 512106
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 606866
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 262950
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34831
Lose: Adversary condition 127076
Win: Sacrifice victory 11159
Lose: Scenario condition 12143
Win: Scenario condition 17740
Lose: Blight pool ran out 366817
Lose: Spirit destroyed 18302

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)