Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 14209 37.9% 28.11 0.234 78.28% -0.277 0.07
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9992 41.42% 32.07 1.639 76.97% -0.196 0.0818
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12215 56.27% 35.0 2.257 66.69% -0.739 0.0725
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14220 63.54% 35.06 2.349 59.4% -0.985 0.0137
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9765 78.2% 37.61 3.273 50.51% -1.313 0.0694
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4621 79.23% 36.45 3.169 41.94% -1.407 -0.11
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 38940 74.99% 38.27 1.52 38.26% -2.023 -0.0921
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 64191 38.35% 23.72 -1.359 80.04% -0.174 0.042
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 47762 41.77% 27.63 0.691 79.9% 0.054 -0.0159
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 56215 46.24% 35.88 4.036 79.63% 0.006 -0.077
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 61674 52.79% 40.89 6.043 75.21% -0.147 0.0688
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 57530 48.49% 44.86 7.254 77.27% -0.243 -0.0187
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 32690 58.07% 47.24 7.808 66.08% -0.642 0.0301
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 103702 71.68% 44.75 3.95 54.08% -1.377 -0.02
The Kingdom of England 0 1 49009 37.26% 23.84 -1.14 77.9% -0.245 -0.0356
The Kingdom of England 1 3 28887 41.14% 30.88 1.361 74.04% -0.275 0.0121
The Kingdom of England 2 4 41058 50.14% 31.38 1.144 67.16% -0.7 0.0331
The Kingdom of England 3 6 40497 62.72% 33.47 1.788 52.94% -1.149 0.0696
The Kingdom of England 4 7 45371 51.63% 40.48 2.678 61.4% -1.284 -0.0033
The Kingdom of England 5 9 18567 60.15% 40.81 3.915 47.81% -1.54 -0.0498
The Kingdom of England 6 11 105701 60.44% 41.77 1.648 40.86% -2.083 -0.0885
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 27307 43.42% 27.41 -0.667 74.98% -0.435 -0.0212
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 16691 56.11% 27.23 -0.56 62.61% -0.802 0.0048
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 31061 44.93% 32.64 2.814 49.97% -1.17 -0.0665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 32010 55.4% 36.7 2.946 45.3% -1.462 -0.0646
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20378 52.26% 41.23 5.389 47.92% -1.251 0.2627
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10292 55.03% 46.43 9.202 51.33% -0.915 -0.1308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 91995 54.51% 49.02 7.377 48.54% -1.508 -0.0317
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3820 27.85% 24.95 -1.151 75.84% -0.23 -0.018
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3241 34.28% 28.48 1.114 66.43% -0.437 -0.052
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3797 41.6% 31.03 2.895 65.16% -0.378 0.0006
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5799 45.24% 39.02 6.586 68.13% -0.32 -0.0474
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5524 53.21% 37.93 4.966 58.22% -0.819 0.0425
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5275 54.16% 40.43 6.774 56.7% -0.791 -0.0963
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 27192 61.99% 42.11 7.253 47.93% -1.188 -0.0475
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 34212 39.6% 23.36 -1.457 79.1% -0.221 -0.0256
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 20580 41.51% 27.83 0.584 79.2% -0.022 0.0733
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 25847 49.31% 29.67 1.593 75.27% -0.116 -0.0072
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 31846 57.39% 37.22 3.256 73.71% -0.45 0.0175
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 21447 66.4% 36.42 3.851 64.62% -0.504 0.1156
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10027 68.33% 36.24 1.636 54.86% -1.063 -0.0765
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 70099 66.38% 40.56 3.53 58.39% -1.075 -0.0768
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11191 34.34% 26.07 -0.795 82.52% -0.172 -0.081
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7492 46.79% 29.4 -0.452 68.9% -0.738 -0.0783
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8918 45.1% 35.08 1.82 74.6% -0.57 -0.1763
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10782 59.57% 37.15 2.713 59.45% -1.038 -0.0062
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8576 56.84% 42.69 4.385 63.65% -0.979 -0.0212
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5858 65.67% 42.82 3.022 47.12% -1.751 -0.0336
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 42461 70.34% 47.53 2.766 43.8% -2.118 -0.1357

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 18817 43.14% 27.03 64.2% -0.138 -0.0275 -1.008
Dahan Insurrection 4 17679 28.88% 49.84 73.52% 0.487 0.2515 0.449
Despicable Theft 2 2780 41.77% 29.86 67.37% -0.724 -0.0814 -0.439
Elemental Invocation 1 3998 50.46% 26.89 61.91% -0.79 0.0124 -1.421
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 64977 22.2% 43.78 72.98% 0.835 0.0608 0.281
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6982 51.04% 28.75 64.15% -0.815 -0.0421 -0.547
Rituals of Terror 3 6913 47.98% 33.37 63.19% -0.4 -0.3838 -0.569
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4432 68.54% 30.81 58.75% -1.12 -0.0631 -0.854
Second Wave 0 61206 42.32% 27.76 73.33% 0.033 0.1134 -0.404
The Great River 3 4015 50.46% 28.64 53.37% -1.101 0.0279 -1.539
Varied Terrains 2 1649 44.6% 24.91 54.94% -0.72 -0.0277 -1.923
Ward the Shores 2 7276 48.79% 29.58 58.55% -0.708 0.1547 -1.013

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 74112 30.02 50.65% -0.281 -0.1214 -0.716
Aid From Lesser Spirits 54591 32.41 54.62% -0.016 -0.1022 -0.407
All Things Weaken 45868 30.06 48.51% -0.412 -0.0703 -0.751
Attenuated Essence 4211 28.47 46.09% -0.184 -0.1095 -0.914
Back Against the Wall 51786 30.68 51.89% -0.149 -0.0741 -0.512
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4293 27.48 42.72% -0.309 -0.1183 -0.899
Burn Brightest Before the End 2758 30.25 46.7% -0.192 -0.0678 -0.751
Disintegrating Ecosystem 70335 27.07 47.1% -0.503 -0.1305 -0.882
Downward Spiral 178274 23.8 54.88% -0.192 -0.0557 -0.589
Erosion of Will 73138 28.98 48.17% -0.363 -0.0679 -0.861
Intensifying Exploitation 4325 26.56 42.15% -0.306 -0.0671 -0.909
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 16473 36.78 78.49% 0.435 -0.0971 0.074
Memory Fades to Dust 179722 23.24 50.96% -0.341 -0.0607 -0.725
Power Corrodes the Spirit 44905 30.07 51.73% -0.251 -0.0978 -0.743
Promising Farmlands 70312 27.97 47.57% -0.474 -0.1274 -0.891
Shattered Fragments of Power 2821 30.68 46.54% -0.32 -0.1247 -0.776
Slow Dissolution of Will 4240 26.42 38.02% -0.579 -0.1274 -1.13
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10757 37.26 81.9% 0.715 -0.0254 0.315
The Border of Life and Death 1107 31.15 63.41% 0.516 0.0825 -0.308
Thriving Communities 44369 29.14 49.11% -0.408 -0.1092 -0.766
Thriving Crops 1865 28.62 53.89% 0.028 -0.0745 -0.55
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.877
Unnatural Proliferation 47054 31.17 49.5% -0.321 -0.1757 -0.703
Untended Land Crumbles 44745 29.43 49.78% -0.381 -0.0816 -0.814

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 410161 48.13% 27.25 66.7% -0.152 0.8427 -0.149
B 417439 47.17% 29.17 68.65% -0.03 0.8878 -0.004
C 533747 46.25% 29.54 72.02% 0.186 0.9285 0.097
D 385154 46.99% 28.18 68.71% -0.082 0.8692 -0.086
E 177595 46.23% 34.09 69.45% 0.128 0.909 0.076
F 203850 45.46% 32.18 70.55% -0.07 0.8225 -0.02
G 177164 46.62% 31.34 69.9% -0.052 0.8036 -0.021
H 185444 43.74% 32.69 72.25% 0.056 0.9043 0.093

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 228674 0.0% 17.9 65.7% -0.535 0.0948 -1.451
Not Using Events or Tokens 574971 45.52% 20.86 68.85% -0.439 0.0676 -0.327
Skip Initial Invader Actions 63896 15.24% 37.44 87.57% 0.499 -0.1361 -0.091
Start of Game Growth 93395 18.11% 37.29 86.34% 0.408 0.018 0.479
Unlimited Undo 239033 38.35% 33.28 77.78% -0.022 0.0224 0.702
Using Tokens but Not Events 244865 33.6% 28.28 78.49% 0.049 0.0214 -0.232

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 457597 17.67 24.16%
II 1021928 30.7 70.18%
III 702593 34.75 85.31%
IV 308024 38.22 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 110225
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 590212
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 697337
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 303100
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 115100
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39562
Lose: Adversary condition 147852
Win: Sacrifice victory 12507
Lose: Scenario condition 13466
Win: Scenario condition 20557
Lose: Blight pool ran out 419403
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20821

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)