Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 12758 38.98% 28.77 0.023 80.44% -0.258 0.0051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9072 42.36% 32.76 0.994 78.53% -0.39 -0.0441
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 11073 57.27% 35.81 1.231 68.36% -0.866 -0.0364
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12863 64.43% 35.85 1.916 60.9% -1.037 -0.0456
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8847 79.04% 38.45 2.047 51.79% -1.368 -0.0482
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4178 80.71% 37.11 0.316 42.32% -1.676 -0.0132
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34956 76.13% 39.46 1.159 39.43% -2.141 -0.1278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 59192 38.86% 24.3 -0.981 82.05% -0.08 0.0052
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 43147 42.4% 28.31 0.447 81.82% 0.003 -0.0923
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 51711 46.76% 36.54 3.302 81.12% -0.109 -0.1199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 56675 53.42% 41.65 5.373 76.6% -0.3 -0.1026
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 53782 48.63% 45.51 7.201 78.41% -0.245 -0.0425
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29946 58.53% 48.22 8.588 67.47% -0.598 -0.0371
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 94936 72.39% 46.02 4.241 55.61% -1.422 -0.0835
The Kingdom of England 0 1 45205 37.43% 24.39 -0.907 80.01% -0.158 0.1073
The Kingdom of England 1 3 26478 41.84% 31.62 2.116 75.77% -0.12 0.0636
The Kingdom of England 2 4 38057 50.61% 31.96 0.473 68.54% -0.831 -0.094
The Kingdom of England 3 6 37195 63.49% 34.24 0.989 54.22% -1.242 -0.1025
The Kingdom of England 4 7 42122 52.16% 41.42 3.437 62.88% -1.162 -0.1158
The Kingdom of England 5 9 16850 61.28% 41.77 3.399 48.77% -1.607 0.0338
The Kingdom of England 6 11 96119 61.4% 43.36 1.353 42.56% -2.196 -0.1545
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 25602 43.76% 27.85 -0.254 76.3% -0.335 0.0674
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 15454 57.16% 27.79 -2.447 63.89% -1.18 -0.2244
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 29054 45.49% 32.97 2.332 50.55% -1.173 -0.0996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 29791 56.01% 37.29 2.336 45.97% -1.489 -0.2014
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 19171 52.7% 41.74 4.838 48.44% -1.45 -0.0482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9360 55.77% 46.76 8.235 51.39% -1.021 -0.0924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84471 55.06% 49.88 7.906 49.36% -1.452 -0.108
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2598 28.7% 27.41 -0.048 83.6% 0.148 0.1647
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2168 35.77% 30.64 0.91 71.68% -0.465 -0.0348
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2603 41.98% 32.57 1.759 68.61% -0.49 -0.0485
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4052 46.39% 40.62 5.555 71.45% -0.456 -0.0701
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3949 53.97% 39.58 4.892 60.62% -0.788 -0.169
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3580 55.53% 41.56 5.059 57.77% -0.93 -0.1468
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 18160 63.86% 44.29 5.013 49.76% -1.4 -0.1241
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 31717 39.91% 23.9 -1.101 81.12% -0.066 0.1144
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 18923 42.01% 28.44 0.143 81.01% -0.093 -0.067
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 23648 49.75% 30.28 0.468 76.94% -0.361 -0.1376
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 29461 57.78% 38.02 3.088 75.36% -0.437 -0.0097
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 19930 67.23% 37.06 2.958 65.72% -0.727 -0.1181
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 9139 69.7% 37.36 3.216 56.47% -0.947 0.0626
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 63212 67.55% 41.7 4.058 59.94% -1.001 -0.1138
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9955 34.69% 26.81 -0.758 85.39% -0.169 -0.0479
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6679 47.89% 30.51 -0.659 71.66% -0.755 -0.1139
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8032 46.2% 36.08 2.08 76.89% -0.532 -0.1064
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 9614 60.35% 38.27 1.615 61.3% -1.221 -0.1066
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7677 57.71% 43.89 3.435 65.51% -1.083 -0.1787
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4844 67.98% 45.65 5.252 50.1% -1.392 0.1037
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 37185 71.63% 50.0 4.063 46.39% -1.929 -0.0885

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 16994 44.52% 27.66 66.3% -0.219 -0.0219 -1.106
Dahan Insurrection 4 15832 29.41% 50.86 74.68% 0.674 0.2315 0.405
Despicable Theft 2 2279 44.14% 32.28 72.75% -0.634 0.1786 -0.337
Elemental Invocation 1 3431 52.35% 28.46 66.34% -0.813 -0.1101 -1.372
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 59459 22.36% 44.08 73.62% 0.752 0.1078 0.163
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6293 52.99% 30.1 67.28% -0.767 -0.1321 -0.526
Rituals of Terror 3 6142 50.17% 34.9 65.71% -0.593 -0.4918 -0.563
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3992 70.54% 32.21 61.07% -1.085 -0.0755 -0.833
Second Wave 0 56557 42.65% 28.08 74.12% -0.036 0.0299 -0.46
The Great River 3 3556 52.14% 29.92 55.74% -1.206 0.0116 -1.554
Varied Terrains 2 1190 48.24% 27.15 58.91% -0.722 -0.0992 -1.897
Ward the Shores 2 6610 49.62% 30.58 60.67% -0.912 0.1719 -1.009

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 69779 30.25 51.09% -0.305 -0.0624 -0.872
Aid From Lesser Spirits 51493 32.55 54.96% 0.004 -0.0735 -0.56
All Things Weaken 41903 30.44 49.13% -0.413 -0.0202 -0.905
Attenuated Essence 1730 28.04 45.72% -0.181 -0.0742 -1.128
Back Against the Wall 48744 30.84 52.19% -0.076 -0.0187 -0.66
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1796 28.15 43.04% -0.248 -0.0458 -0.979
Burn Brightest Before the End 1178 30.3 45.59% -0.2 0.01 -0.989
Disintegrating Ecosystem 65857 27.32 47.67% -0.512 -0.0887 -1.037
Downward Spiral 165737 24.24 55.83% -0.281 -0.0452 -0.745
Erosion of Will 68751 29.21 48.58% -0.377 -0.0677 -1.009
Intensifying Exploitation 1852 26.33 42.55% -0.37 -0.0822 -1.075
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14987 37.44 79.94% 0.463 -0.0304 -0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 167145 23.64 51.81% -0.398 -0.0612 -0.88
Power Corrodes the Spirit 41072 30.46 52.42% -0.281 -0.0602 -0.897
Promising Farmlands 66039 28.22 48.05% -0.575 -0.1222 -1.043
Shattered Fragments of Power 1220 31.29 47.05% -0.145 -0.0938 -0.852
Slow Dissolution of Will 1736 26.87 38.59% -0.5 -0.1009 -1.263
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9763 37.83 83.34% 0.563 -0.1476 0.197
The Border of Life and Death 472 29.42 59.75% 0.223 -0.112 -0.572
Thriving Communities 40407 29.57 49.87% -0.479 -0.1156 -0.91
Thriving Crops 777 29.24 53.67% 0.062 -0.1359 -0.703
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.04
Unnatural Proliferation 43168 31.46 50.0% -0.336 -0.121 -0.86
Untended Land Crumbles 40820 29.83 50.64% -0.291 -0.0089 -0.966

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 372158 48.73% 28.07 68.79% -0.133 0.6069 -0.142
B 379907 47.64% 29.95 70.57% -0.076 0.6496 -0.004
C 485578 46.78% 30.29 73.91% 0.104 0.6863 0.075
D 351495 47.52% 28.97 70.71% -0.066 0.645 -0.089
E 155514 46.98% 35.1 71.5% 0.139 0.7049 0.083
F 184243 45.95% 33.06 72.49% -0.034 0.6363 -0.012
G 160089 47.12% 32.09 71.68% -0.048 0.6041 -0.022
H 167631 44.16% 33.42 74.06% 0.101 0.6714 0.098

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 202333 0.0% 18.79 68.94% -0.699 0.0777 -1.444
Not Using Events or Tokens 514897 46.1% 21.82 71.9% -0.352 0.0268 -0.255
Skip Initial Invader Actions 58911 14.98% 38.15 89.36% 0.546 -0.072 -0.159
Start of Game Growth 85951 17.74% 37.96 88.12% 0.447 0.0982 0.522
Unlimited Undo 220021 38.53% 34.07 79.92% 0.02 0.0135 0.748
Using Tokens but Not Events 223773 34.06% 28.92 80.1% -0.047 -0.0575 -0.213

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 373100 20.4 27.69%
II 944385 31.01 70.87%
III 653046 34.76 85.42%
IV 285672 38.07 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 103018
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 549136
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 650818
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 281026
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 43352
Lose: Invader deck ran out 37028
Lose: Adversary condition 137782
Win: Sacrifice victory 11768
Lose: Scenario condition 12772
Win: Scenario condition 19134
Lose: Blight pool ran out 390869
Lose: Spirit destroyed 19500

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)