Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10812 38.89% 29.11 0.344 82.16% -0.613 -0.0618
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7540 43.66% 33.08 1.976 79.67% -0.797 0.0811
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9227 59.12% 36.54 3.371 70.08% -1.165 -0.0461
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10691 65.06% 36.65 3.028 62.7% -1.546 -0.0153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7342 79.73% 39.3 4.606 53.15% -1.705 -0.1171
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3294 82.3% 38.54 6.104 43.81% -1.653 -0.0899
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 28302 78.17% 40.63 4.832 40.89% -2.436 -0.1756
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 53586 39.23% 24.41 -1.625 82.92% -0.251 -0.0072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 37444 42.72% 28.66 0.37 82.98% 0.087 -0.0391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 45408 47.21% 37.01 3.984 82.27% -0.243 -0.1266
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 49436 53.97% 42.12 6.782 77.56% -0.414 -0.0402
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 46999 48.88% 45.85 8.071 79.03% -0.551 -0.0846
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 26357 58.01% 49.09 9.753 69.15% -1.155 -0.17
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 82936 72.93% 46.9 7.52 56.75% -1.69 -0.1152
The Kingdom of England 0 1 40451 37.91% 24.49 -1.619 80.86% -0.49 0.0265
The Kingdom of England 1 3 22889 42.7% 31.95 2.537 76.64% -0.585 0.024
The Kingdom of England 2 4 33875 50.73% 32.47 1.467 69.82% -1.133 -0.0057
The Kingdom of England 3 6 32610 64.67% 34.72 2.811 54.85% -1.709 0.0348
The Kingdom of England 4 7 36469 53.24% 42.09 6.999 63.76% -1.53 0.0486
The Kingdom of England 5 9 14464 63.31% 42.35 8.993 49.14% -1.828 -0.091
The Kingdom of England 6 11 82437 61.83% 44.89 7.24 44.52% -2.488 -0.1895
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 23301 43.93% 27.96 -0.652 77.03% -0.893 0.0093
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13452 58.23% 28.4 0.426 65.56% -0.967 -0.0766
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 25736 45.87% 33.16 1.298 51.02% -2.486 -0.0834
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 26755 56.56% 37.74 3.573 46.55% -2.406 -0.0223
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17262 52.73% 42.15 5.029 49.03% -2.479 -0.003
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8188 56.85% 47.18 7.201 51.67% -2.273 -0.1955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 72900 55.64% 50.4 8.376 49.97% -2.5 -0.1331
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 756 29.44% 28.73 -0.914 89.68% 0.153 0.0291
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 686 38.69% 33.02 1.456 79.15% -0.674 0.1711
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 723 45.01% 34.61 2.194 74.14% -0.959 -0.1304
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1003 49.35% 42.71 6.383 75.27% -0.875 -0.0053
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1018 53.73% 42.77 6.053 66.7% -1.393 -0.1574
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 733 67.26% 42.31 6.13 54.84% -1.625 -0.1934
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4161 68.25% 48.42 9.008 52.73% -1.797 -0.0986
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 28619 40.26% 23.96 -1.23 82.03% -0.195 -0.0279
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 16785 42.46% 28.72 0.649 81.95% 0.287 0.0634
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20855 50.17% 30.63 0.956 78.07% -0.486 -0.0324
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 26166 58.42% 38.44 4.761 76.33% -0.375 -0.0653
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 17809 67.39% 37.48 3.905 66.54% -1.032 -0.0801
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7995 71.29% 37.7 5.001 56.82% -1.047 -0.0661
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 53970 68.85% 42.27 6.447 60.77% -1.281 -0.0888
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8221 35.03% 26.82 -0.989 87.14% -0.199 -0.2558
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5410 49.32% 31.07 1.142 73.14% -0.764 0.0106
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6648 47.2% 36.77 2.82 78.7% -0.896 -0.1853
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7922 61.3% 39.2 3.956 63.0% -1.498 -0.1591
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6350 58.42% 45.14 5.521 67.59% -1.59 -0.2051
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3904 68.91% 46.38 8.931 50.74% -1.897 0.04
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 29712 72.35% 52.23 8.804 48.99% -2.248 -0.2292

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 14586 45.99% 27.75 67.86% -0.176 0.0809 -1.082
Dahan Insurrection 4 13260 30.31% 50.88 74.83% -0.494 -0.0805 0.223
Despicable Theft 2 1700 46.03% 33.43 76.88% -0.296 0.1503 -0.225
Elemental Invocation 1 2649 51.17% 29.37 72.18% -0.293 0.1925 -0.862
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 51349 21.88% 44.11 74.46% -0.175 0.1308 0.06
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5545 54.21% 30.91 68.69% -0.224 -0.0422 -0.547
Rituals of Terror 3 5519 51.05% 35.6 66.59% -0.875 -0.7538 -0.607
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3535 71.63% 32.97 62.07% -0.19 0.2253 -0.808
Second Wave 0 49473 42.78% 28.24 74.85% -0.592 -0.026 -0.602
The Great River 3 2834 53.04% 31.0 59.67% -1.403 -0.0051 -1.506
Varied Terrains 2 264 47.35% 33.14 76.52% -0.502 0.0244 -0.723
Ward the Shores 2 5870 50.33% 31.26 62.04% -0.895 0.2667 -1.071

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 61973 30.22 51.39% -1.997 -0.0943 -1.03
Aid From Lesser Spirits 45839 32.39 55.08% -1.762 -0.032 -0.723
All Things Weaken 34516 30.63 49.78% -2.036 -0.051 -1.052
Back Against the Wall 43277 30.71 52.22% -1.776 0.0402 -0.818
Disintegrating Ecosystem 58519 27.34 48.04% -2.109 -0.0587 -1.193
Downward Spiral 149049 24.27 56.45% -2.007 -0.0143 -0.903
Erosion of Will 61073 29.19 48.86% -2.119 -0.0358 -1.167
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 12327 37.83 81.16% -0.417 0.0242 -0.147
Memory Fades to Dust 150239 23.69 52.32% -2.124 -0.0395 -1.033
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33794 30.58 53.05% -1.994 -0.0554 -1.052
Promising Farmlands 58581 28.25 48.44% -2.115 -0.0693 -1.204
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8053 38.13 84.66% -0.442 -0.0169 0.097
Thriving Communities 33341 29.86 50.91% -2.039 -0.0551 -1.036
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.204
Unnatural Proliferation 35522 31.48 50.4% -2.026 -0.0616 -1.031
Untended Land Crumbles 33583 29.97 51.17% -2.02 -0.0267 -1.118

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 325841 49.23% 28.38 70.11% -0.119 0.6781 -0.155
B 333385 48.07% 30.25 71.86% -0.07 0.6733 -0.01
C 425861 47.19% 30.58 75.28% 0.206 0.7739 0.077
D 310097 47.95% 29.29 72.0% -0.09 0.7059 -0.07
E 122356 48.06% 35.83 73.2% 0.1 0.7474 0.09
F 154691 46.21% 33.63 74.21% -0.012 0.712 -0.009
G 135208 47.35% 32.53 73.23% -0.046 0.6856 -0.034
H 141585 44.52% 33.82 75.56% 0.047 0.7593 0.099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 180965 0.0% 19.27 70.81% -2.11 0.0191 -1.697
Not Using Events or Tokens 460945 46.44% 22.24 73.56% -0.167 0.0075 -0.244
Skip Initial Invader Actions 52712 15.19% 38.3 90.46% -0.038 -0.1806 0.116
Start of Game Growth 75931 17.61% 37.91 89.49% 0.829 0.0688 0.579
Unlimited Undo 190608 38.32% 34.33 81.88% 0.689 0.0848 0.826
Using Tokens but Not Events 191496 34.77% 29.33 81.57% 0.081 -0.0756 -0.153

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 296627 22.56 31.15%
II 826763 30.98 71.29%
III 573694 34.53 85.35%
IV 251530 37.77 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 92130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 481867
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 573192
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 247292
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32890
Lose: Adversary condition 118757
Win: Sacrifice victory 10590
Lose: Scenario condition 11352
Win: Scenario condition 16869
Lose: Blight pool ran out 346359
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17316

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)