Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7946 38.06% 28.68 -0.515 83.72% -0.329 -0.0393
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5479 44.21% 32.76 1.546 80.31% -0.466 -0.0515
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6775 59.26% 36.33 3.553 70.3% -0.869 0.0144
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8316 64.83% 36.73 3.695 63.53% -1.22 0.0221
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5511 78.93% 39.45 5.344 53.98% -1.416 0.0804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2520 81.63% 38.11 4.69 43.33% -1.864 0.075
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 19871 78.83% 40.83 5.862 42.23% -2.031 0.0115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 45650 38.9% 24.29 -1.751 83.24% -0.085 -0.0436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 30119 42.69% 28.54 0.338 82.66% -0.033 -0.0517
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 36399 47.25% 36.94 4.444 82.2% -0.077 -0.0634
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39772 54.34% 41.94 6.963 77.23% -0.359 -0.0759
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 38694 48.09% 46.02 8.751 79.45% -0.408 -0.0491
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 22590 57.75% 49.18 10.49 69.49% -0.882 -0.0566
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 66120 72.84% 46.94 9.543 57.33% -1.243 -0.0041
The Kingdom of England 0 1 33687 37.78% 24.2 -1.906 81.01% -0.329 0.0011
The Kingdom of England 1 3 18295 43.64% 31.77 1.852 76.55% -0.52 -0.0029
The Kingdom of England 2 4 28356 50.1% 32.55 2.063 70.26% -0.899 0.0742
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26346 64.44% 34.58 3.27 55.37% -1.473 0.1065
The Kingdom of England 4 7 28842 54.54% 41.54 6.254 62.56% -1.438 0.0569
The Kingdom of England 5 9 11704 65.47% 41.58 6.431 47.4% -2.025 0.0458
The Kingdom of England 6 11 66974 61.26% 45.05 7.801 45.42% -2.248 -0.004
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 19840 44.01% 27.84 -0.577 77.54% -0.555 -0.043
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10952 58.3% 28.28 -0.14 65.45% -0.972 -0.0692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 21288 45.89% 33.0 1.992 51.01% -2.179 -0.0381
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22607 56.44% 37.6 4.163 46.47% -2.266 -0.0676
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 14583 52.03% 42.48 6.592 50.1% -2.204 -0.0438
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6724 56.08% 48.03 9.267 53.69% -1.902 -0.0843
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 56737 55.1% 50.36 10.43 50.61% -2.131 -0.04
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 24268 40.03% 23.7 -2.096 82.41% -0.117 -0.0282
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13938 42.1% 28.7 0.318 82.23% -0.057 -0.0223
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16784 50.01% 30.59 1.216 78.21% -0.281 -0.0439
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 21651 58.05% 38.42 5.095 76.55% -0.331 -0.0407
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14677 67.03% 37.51 4.659 66.72% -0.808 -0.0268
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6642 70.71% 37.61 4.764 56.32% -1.263 -0.0945
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 42485 68.97% 41.8 6.681 60.69% -1.152 -0.0296
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5732 33.25% 26.17 -2.02 88.94% 0.04 -0.0483
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3775 48.91% 30.98 0.538 73.85% -0.855 -0.0756
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4618 45.6% 36.82 3.399 79.82% -0.542 -0.1299
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5748 60.0% 39.41 4.771 64.11% -1.295 -0.0504
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4619 58.86% 45.18 7.579 68.26% -1.122 -0.0137
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2694 69.53% 46.35 8.155 51.11% -1.893 0.0913
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21069 70.71% 53.16 11.46 51.32% -1.865 0.0073

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 14901 46.21% 26.94 -1.884 67.93% -0.572 -0.0067
Dahan Insurrection 4 14440 31.26% 50.22 9.438 74.07% -0.521 -0.121
Despicable Theft 2 919 43.96% 33.88 1.885 80.74% -0.151 0.123
Elemental Invocation 1 1712 50.88% 29.46 -0.871 73.36% -0.325 0.1777
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53351 21.53% 43.51 4.669 74.58% -0.279 0.0854
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6150 55.31% 30.28 0.074 68.15% -0.458 -0.0117
Rituals of Terror 3 5817 49.96% 35.24 3.12 66.53% -0.781 -0.1363
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3907 73.34% 31.77 1.162 60.38% -0.704 -0.0574
Second Wave 0 51766 44.61% 27.61 -1.292 73.54% -0.687 -0.2576
The Great River 3 2063 51.43% 31.25 0.555 61.22% -1.408 0.0651
Ward the Shores 2 6325 51.48% 30.99 0.313 62.36% -0.975 0.0564

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 50606 30.06 -2.359 51.54% -2.183 -0.1136
Aid From Lesser Spirits 37157 32.14 -1.316 55.0% -2.022 -0.1089
All Things Weaken 24131 30.44 -2.429 49.56% -2.273 -0.114
Back Against the Wall 34889 30.4 -2.101 52.1% -2.188 -0.1006
Disintegrating Ecosystem 47601 27.12 -3.84 48.06% -2.347 -0.1245
Downward Spiral 125936 24.09 -3.557 56.59% -2.119 -0.0977
Erosion of Will 49751 28.97 -2.895 48.92% -2.316 -0.1079
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8523 38.02 1.499 81.34% -0.683 -0.0044
Memory Fades to Dust 127137 23.5 -3.851 52.37% -2.316 -0.1011
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23580 30.58 -2.332 53.34% -2.11 -0.0892
Promising Farmlands 47638 28.03 -3.399 48.4% -2.323 -0.1147
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5636 38.32 1.715 85.18% -0.446 -0.0341
Thriving Communities 23168 29.8 -2.735 51.33% -2.184 -0.0957
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.49 48.73% -2.315 -0.0898
Unnatural Proliferation 24669 31.38 -1.975 50.77% -2.221 -0.1405
Untended Land Crumbles 23487 29.93 -2.678 51.53% -2.192 -0.0897

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 270566 49.11% 28.23 -0.95 70.09% -0.193 -0.8805
B 277597 47.92% 30.04 -0.211 71.99% -0.072 -0.8557
C 351869 47.12% 30.37 0.381 75.39% 0.214 -0.7989
D 259457 47.78% 29.15 -0.449 72.15% -0.074 -0.8517
E 85268 48.09% 35.83 1.232 73.57% 0.112 -0.7825
F 119586 45.67% 33.68 0.593 74.57% 0.016 -0.8251
G 104743 46.94% 32.48 0.183 73.5% -0.025 -0.8572
H 110560 44.05% 33.9 0.696 75.8% 0.037 -0.8022

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 155114 0.0% 19.31 -4.15 70.8% -2.065 -0.012
Not Using Events or Tokens 393372 46.87% 22.24 -3.032 73.4% -0.17 0.0449
Skip Initial Invader Actions 45316 14.83% 38.14 2.971 90.52% 0.617 -0.069
Start of Game Growth 63887 16.78% 37.32 2.569 89.73% 0.52 0.0515
Unlimited Undo 157853 37.84% 33.94 1.389 81.94% 0.437 0.0144
Using Tokens but Not Events 158075 35.09% 29.2 -1.162 81.64% 0.033 -0.018

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 241388 22.37 32.06%
II 673681 30.88 71.55%
III 462705 34.39 85.22%
IV 201872 37.55 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 57833
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 325197
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 375511
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 163854
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26666
Lose: Adversary condition 92540
Win: Sacrifice victory 8358
Lose: Scenario condition 9446
Win: Scenario condition 14619
Lose: Blight pool ran out 282137
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14186

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)