Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1204 26.58% 20.93 -0.769 64.2% -0.233 0.2116
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 891 27.38% 30.38 3.087 73.85% 0.038 -0.0109
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 812 38.67% 31.41 4.125 68.23% -0.017 0.1203
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1254 42.94% 35.09 6.291 70.33% 0.132 0.1776
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1312 54.54% 36.84 7.848 58.46% -0.259 0.1543
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 752 60.51% 39.13 7.754 50.0% -0.84 0.041
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 6490 72.77% 27.13 2.131 26.55% -1.82 -0.0502
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18587 36.58% 26.62 0.052 73.15% -0.266 0.1593
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 13236 39.4% 30.3 2.173 72.38% -0.117 0.1509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 16049 53.38% 33.42 3.05 63.59% -0.549 -0.0189
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18641 61.04% 33.2 1.705 55.71% -1.063 -0.0926
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12828 75.08% 34.97 1.249 46.72% -1.399 -0.0546
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5937 76.95% 34.3 2.476 39.55% -1.526 -0.0152
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 51492 72.19% 35.17 1.087 35.03% -1.884 -0.0557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 77739 37.51% 22.56 -1.299 75.78% -0.163 0.0328
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 61990 40.18% 25.89 0.593 74.85% 0.076 0.0222
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 71357 45.06% 34.05 3.206 75.34% -0.111 -0.1088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 77835 51.01% 38.83 4.732 71.56% -0.278 -0.0858
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 71075 48.02% 42.64 6.3 73.47% -0.222 0.0111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 41363 55.83% 45.57 9.13 64.18% -0.335 0.0662
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 133110 69.43% 41.64 4.078 50.52% -1.21 0.0141
The Kingdom of England 0 1 59396 36.78% 22.69 -1.15 73.71% -0.167 0.1346
The Kingdom of England 1 3 36146 39.91% 29.39 1.07 70.25% -0.305 -0.0458
The Kingdom of England 2 4 53029 49.35% 29.51 1.825 62.8% -0.402 0.0611
The Kingdom of England 3 6 51487 60.64% 31.59 1.902 49.96% -0.974 0.0476
The Kingdom of England 4 7 59273 48.59% 38.09 3.566 57.81% -1.065 -0.1104
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24002 57.39% 38.52 3.414 45.45% -1.478 0.0925
The Kingdom of England 6 11 135896 58.13% 38.33 2.038 37.34% -1.897 -0.0607
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 32467 42.11% 26.31 -0.252 71.54% -0.352 -0.0059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 20914 53.2% 25.9 -1.089 59.52% -0.844 -0.0165
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 37623 44.09% 31.67 1.658 48.47% -1.132 0.0031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 37721 54.43% 35.51 3.027 43.8% -1.312 -0.1319
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24708 50.57% 39.47 3.847 45.83% -1.468 -0.1596
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12590 53.91% 45.11 6.531 49.9% -1.228 0.0162
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 113782 53.59% 47.12 7.198 46.54% -1.369 0.0033
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7596 27.95% 22.44 -0.888 67.98% -0.12 0.153
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6697 32.74% 26.07 0.299 60.47% -0.556 -0.0896
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7680 39.59% 29.15 2.936 61.18% -0.264 0.06
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12078 42.66% 36.79 7.004 64.03% 0.028 -0.0001
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10702 51.99% 35.54 6.161 54.84% -0.443 0.0558
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 11838 52.37% 38.5 8.264 54.92% -0.345 0.1186
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54064 58.3% 40.63 7.161 47.23% -1.009 0.039
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 41460 38.82% 22.24 -1.201 74.67% -0.157 0.0972
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 25405 40.32% 26.41 0.206 74.88% -0.023 0.0004
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 32359 47.7% 28.27 0.75 71.55% -0.217 -0.0204
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 39710 55.64% 35.45 3.952 70.12% -0.178 0.044
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 27051 64.64% 34.37 2.07 61.05% -0.719 0.031
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12642 65.93% 34.15 2.0 51.94% -1.064 -0.0489
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90128 64.43% 38.09 3.786 54.89% -0.879 0.0225
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 15106 32.76% 25.01 -0.536 77.41% -0.097 0.1361
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10506 44.11% 26.82 -0.924 62.6% -0.819 -0.0197
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11915 44.05% 33.08 2.754 70.2% -0.315 -0.0593
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 14526 57.18% 34.67 1.091 55.45% -1.193 -0.1072
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11624 55.77% 39.34 3.56 58.18% -0.987 -0.0348
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7793 63.3% 40.2 5.288 44.27% -1.303 0.1207
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 58652 67.49% 43.35 5.41 39.93% -1.547 0.0077

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 24890 39.69% 26.15 59.39% -0.197 0.0203 -0.85
Dahan Insurrection 4 23980 26.84% 48.11 70.35% 0.281 0.0281 0.568
Despicable Theft 2 4261 37.7% 26.55 60.1% -0.415 0.1711 -0.396
Elemental Invocation 1 5932 45.45% 23.72 54.38% -0.682 0.0577 -1.476
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81055 21.31% 42.68 71.03% 0.471 -0.091 0.465
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8847 47.25% 26.15 58.69% -0.619 0.1408 -0.608
Rituals of Terror 3 9215 44.76% 30.6 58.42% -0.609 -0.4892 -0.526
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5583 64.04% 28.08 54.22% -1.173 -0.2658 -0.84
Second Wave 0 74328 40.98% 27.27 71.85% 0.009 0.1479 -0.227
The Great River 3 5631 44.75% 25.36 47.38% -0.988 0.1116 -1.568
Varied Terrains 2 3195 43.36% 21.66 47.42% -0.863 -0.0868 -1.63
Ward the Shores 2 9125 46.6% 27.01 53.88% -1.034 0.0408 -0.989

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 87337 29.57 49.79% -0.29 -0.0389 -0.445
Aid From Lesser Spirits 63340 32.13 54.06% -0.037 -0.0947 -0.132
All Things Weaken 58752 29.1 47.07% -0.393 -0.0587 -0.49
Attenuated Essence 13047 28.14 46.21% -0.12 -0.0862 -0.509
Back Against the Wall 60498 30.38 51.29% -0.159 -0.1238 -0.242
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13193 26.88 43.15% -0.276 -0.0593 -0.634
Burn Brightest Before the End 8214 29.72 46.68% -0.05 -0.0393 -0.427
Disintegrating Ecosystem 83675 26.53 46.1% -0.424 -0.0799 -0.609
Downward Spiral 216146 22.94 52.89% -0.173 -0.0557 -0.318
Erosion of Will 86494 28.55 47.32% -0.358 -0.0833 -0.582
Intensifying Exploitation 13259 25.75 41.99% -0.269 -0.0574 -0.643
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21216 35.11 75.02% 0.476 -0.097 0.242
Memory Fades to Dust 217322 22.44 49.18% -0.329 -0.0763 -0.453
Power Corrodes the Spirit 57773 28.99 49.89% -0.273 -0.0687 -0.506
Promising Farmlands 83426 27.37 46.47% -0.375 -0.1205 -0.63
Shattered Fragments of Power 8076 29.39 45.67% -0.152 -0.0775 -0.464
Slow Dissolution of Will 12919 26.04 38.49% -0.463 -0.082 -0.807
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13807 35.56 78.51% 0.683 0.0096 0.453
The Border of Life and Death 3267 30.4 62.72% 0.582 -0.0184 -0.073
Thriving Communities 57193 28.03 47.32% -0.352 -0.0709 -0.52
Thriving Crops 5519 27.81 53.36% 0.064 -0.0759 -0.38
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.586
Unnatural Proliferation 59816 30.38 48.3% -0.298 -0.0945 -0.432
Untended Land Crumbles 57733 28.46 48.2% -0.22 -0.0294 -0.546

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 527878 46.61% 25.55 62.27% -0.149 0.8493 -0.152
B 529965 45.98% 27.58 64.51% -0.062 0.8606 -0.004
C 677691 45.01% 27.99 67.81% 0.19 0.9189 0.111
D 488488 45.83% 26.53 64.34% -0.108 0.8513 -0.107
E 249328 44.47% 31.89 65.31% 0.062 0.881 0.084
F 269449 44.35% 30.37 66.28% -0.029 0.8531 -0.016
G 231493 45.29% 29.73 65.94% 0.035 0.8607 -0.018
H 242958 42.74% 31.06 68.13% 0.048 0.8864 0.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 294548 0.0% 16.27 59.79% -0.678 0.051 -1.033
Not Using Events or Tokens 739274 44.27% 19.09 62.88% -0.272 0.0733 -0.508
Skip Initial Invader Actions 77555 15.2% 36.75 84.02% 0.495 -0.1082 0.004
Start of Game Growth 115965 18.49% 36.43 82.32% 0.637 0.1332 0.408
Unlimited Undo 298245 37.74% 31.69 73.12% 0.173 0.0664 0.679
Using Tokens but Not Events 319322 32.22% 26.82 74.26% 0.006 -0.0233 -0.317

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 721235 13.42 18.41%
II 1260876 30.13 68.66%
III 861120 34.83 85.14%
IV 373608 38.67 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 132400
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 722384
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 841355
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 367882
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 342716
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47265
Lose: Adversary condition 179931
Win: Sacrifice victory 14660
Lose: Scenario condition 15480
Win: Scenario condition 25083
Lose: Blight pool ran out 502698
Lose: Spirit destroyed 24985

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)