Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 16060 37.19% 27.37 -0.075 75.73% -0.371 -0.0049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11506 40.31% 31.09 1.145 74.4% -0.372 -0.0565
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13896 54.93% 34.12 2.353 64.92% -0.741 0.0247
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 16275 62.02% 34.13 2.132 57.51% -1.015 -0.0582
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 11235 76.58% 36.27 2.764 48.65% -1.364 -0.058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5264 77.74% 35.39 1.254 40.98% -1.736 -0.0674
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 44737 73.5% 36.66 0.836 36.57% -2.128 -0.1509
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 69808 37.9% 23.21 -1.641 78.14% -0.237 -0.0223
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 53563 40.83% 26.82 -0.239 77.5% -0.192 -0.0821
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 62644 45.66% 35.02 3.616 77.61% -0.038 0.0378
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 68520 51.95% 39.99 5.477 73.62% -0.24 -0.0584
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 63305 48.25% 43.8 5.474 75.44% -0.434 -0.0434
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 36281 57.08% 46.29 7.599 64.81% -0.697 -0.161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 116685 70.42% 43.1 4.248 52.12% -1.286 0.0007
The Kingdom of England 0 1 53351 36.99% 23.32 -1.326 75.94% -0.261 0.1516
The Kingdom of England 1 3 31990 40.44% 30.23 1.846 72.37% -0.165 0.1149
The Kingdom of England 2 4 45953 49.82% 30.54 1.376 65.09% -0.569 0.0103
The Kingdom of England 3 6 45077 61.69% 32.61 1.915 51.55% -1.115 0.0389
The Kingdom of England 4 7 50693 50.37% 39.28 3.114 59.5% -1.24 -0.1505
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20804 58.92% 39.84 4.482 46.82% -1.437 -0.0416
The Kingdom of England 6 11 118082 59.57% 40.2 1.35 39.24% -2.069 -0.0872
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 29397 42.81% 26.96 -0.774 73.61% -0.46 0.0046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 18481 54.6% 26.7 0.376 61.4% -0.567 0.0874
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 33693 44.46% 32.29 2.693 49.42% -1.038 -0.0509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 34581 54.86% 36.16 2.579 44.6% -1.451 -0.0913
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22388 51.52% 40.32 3.916 46.88% -1.409 -0.0635
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 11348 54.37% 45.86 7.831 50.86% -1.143 -0.1643
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 102061 53.93% 48.15 7.771 47.61% -1.428 -0.0058
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5392 26.87% 23.52 -0.663 71.24% -0.162 -0.0228
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4763 33.03% 26.85 1.452 62.33% -0.402 0.021
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5423 40.12% 29.76 2.673 62.57% -0.363 0.0222
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8340 43.96% 37.56 5.219 64.89% -0.552 -0.1634
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7895 52.07% 36.61 5.533 56.39% -0.639 0.0338
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 8367 53.56% 39.26 7.029 55.46% -0.601 0.0345
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 39769 59.53% 41.76 8.427 48.57% -1.073 -0.0206
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 37211 39.15% 22.85 -2.018 77.05% -0.379 -0.076
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 22695 40.9% 27.17 0.222 77.12% -0.152 -0.084
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 28710 48.51% 29.02 1.695 73.58% 0.004 0.1263
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 35161 56.53% 36.41 3.559 72.06% -0.339 0.0375
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 23902 65.6% 35.54 2.997 63.06% -0.669 -0.0817
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 11233 66.59% 35.27 1.073 53.66% -1.217 -0.1282
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 78522 65.43% 39.38 4.071 56.7% -0.999 -0.0544
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12889 33.66% 25.6 0.188 80.12% 0.025 0.0896
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8897 45.48% 27.92 -0.736 65.28% -0.869 -0.074
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10215 44.38% 34.12 1.489 72.59% -0.591 -0.0847
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 12438 58.3% 35.89 2.569 57.32% -1.024 -0.0713
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9879 55.95% 41.05 3.533 61.09% -1.126 -0.2484
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6692 64.4% 41.69 5.5 46.0% -1.401 -0.0294
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 49289 69.07% 45.54 3.975 41.89% -1.915 -0.0949

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 21478 41.58% 26.74 61.85% -0.324 -0.0373 -0.894
Dahan Insurrection 4 20374 28.23% 49.21 71.59% 0.319 0.2043 0.503
Despicable Theft 2 3460 39.51% 28.04 63.5% -0.7 0.0383 -0.467
Elemental Invocation 1 4846 47.34% 24.94 57.43% -0.795 -0.0386 -1.479
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 72416 21.8% 43.28 72.12% 0.672 0.0899 0.391
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7821 48.99% 27.43 61.35% -0.875 -0.0218 -0.556
Rituals of Terror 3 8146 45.72% 31.63 60.36% -0.08 -0.25 -0.596
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4928 66.47% 29.47 56.55% -0.935 -0.0243 -0.861
Second Wave 0 67086 41.6% 27.5 72.7% 0.181 0.2607 -0.336
The Great River 3 4794 47.01% 26.59 49.5% -1.192 0.1719 -1.63
Varied Terrains 2 2285 43.56% 23.11 51.25% -0.907 -0.0278 -1.807
Ward the Shores 2 8073 47.73% 28.32 56.19% -0.797 0.1848 -1.026

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 79682 29.86 50.32% -0.196 -0.0926 -0.572
Aid From Lesser Spirits 58336 32.31 54.35% 0.061 -0.0836 -0.269
All Things Weaken 51268 29.62 47.82% -0.403 -0.0369 -0.617
Attenuated Essence 7692 28.71 46.63% -0.104 -0.1052 -0.68
Back Against the Wall 55559 30.57 51.63% -0.209 -0.1439 -0.373
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 7712 27.34 42.96% -0.32 -0.0853 -0.792
Burn Brightest Before the End 4949 30.02 46.43% -0.257 -0.0964 -0.603
Disintegrating Ecosystem 75983 26.84 46.62% -0.433 -0.0572 -0.743
Downward Spiral 194243 23.4 53.92% -0.115 -0.0425 -0.442
Erosion of Will 78805 28.81 47.78% -0.328 -0.0712 -0.72
Intensifying Exploitation 7846 26.43 42.06% -0.334 -0.0595 -0.785
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18427 36.15 77.04% 0.42 -0.0669 0.169
Memory Fades to Dust 195710 22.87 50.1% -0.248 -0.0646 -0.576
Power Corrodes the Spirit 50201 29.59 50.81% -0.315 -0.1021 -0.618
Promising Farmlands 75845 27.72 47.1% -0.414 -0.0907 -0.752
Shattered Fragments of Power 4957 30.18 45.69% -0.244 -0.0741 -0.614
Slow Dissolution of Will 7648 26.59 38.73% -0.492 -0.1082 -0.947
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12011 36.63 80.33% 0.633 -0.043 0.392
The Border of Life and Death 1970 31.1 63.35% 0.526 0.0094 -0.202
Thriving Communities 49676 28.62 48.21% -0.453 -0.1286 -0.645
Thriving Crops 3282 28.31 52.59% -0.083 -0.0818 -0.504
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.727
Unnatural Proliferation 52371 30.86 48.97% -0.225 -0.0379 -0.57
Untended Land Crumbles 50135 28.98 48.96% -0.399 -0.0596 -0.684

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 460163 47.37% 26.44 64.55% -0.109 0.7546 -0.16
B 464939 46.66% 28.45 66.67% -0.021 0.7999 -0.009
C 593121 45.65% 28.83 70.04% 0.146 0.8437 0.103
D 427366 46.42% 27.45 66.71% -0.064 0.7919 -0.083
E 207112 45.28% 33.1 67.51% 0.141 0.829 0.091
F 230714 44.89% 31.36 68.49% -0.038 0.7797 -0.014
G 199910 45.91% 30.6 67.9% -0.134 0.7465 -0.032
H 209160 43.2% 31.96 70.28% 0.067 0.8476 0.09

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 254836 0.0% 17.13 62.92% -0.681 0.035 -1.22
Not Using Events or Tokens 644462 44.87% 20.01 65.95% -0.396 0.0783 -0.469
Skip Initial Invader Actions 69536 15.22% 37.12 85.81% 0.391 -0.1764 -0.094
Start of Game Growth 102188 18.26% 36.88 84.48% 0.739 0.0746 0.405
Unlimited Undo 263593 38.19% 32.55 75.46% 0.035 0.0583 0.682
Using Tokens but Not Events 274562 32.89% 27.59 76.42% -0.114 -0.0662 -0.288

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 567173 15.45 21.21%
II 1120837 30.45 69.46%
III 767907 34.8 85.2%
IV 336158 38.47 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 119940
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 644413
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 756788
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 330886
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 208720
Lose: Invader deck ran out 42989
Lose: Adversary condition 161438
Win: Sacrifice victory 13430
Lose: Scenario condition 14370
Win: Scenario condition 22420
Lose: Blight pool ran out 453942
Lose: Spirit destroyed 22739

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)