Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 397 27.46% 22.12 0.098 72.54% 0.228 0.1337
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 275 33.82% 32.36 5.117 82.55% 0.74 0.171
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 245 36.73% 32.13 4.765 72.24% 0.103 0.0143
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 357 42.3% 36.28 6.952 74.51% 0.289 0.072
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 377 54.38% 34.86 5.96 54.91% -0.698 -0.167
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 206 62.62% 38.62 7.635 50.49% -0.946 -0.0439
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1991 72.58% 27.3 2.137 27.77% -1.881 -0.1338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 17453 36.67% 27.0 0.339 74.39% -0.245 0.1474
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12444 39.8% 30.59 1.263 73.13% -0.378 0.0464
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15113 53.98% 33.68 2.831 64.07% -0.636 -0.0945
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 17619 61.4% 33.64 3.222 56.63% -0.775 0.0044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12180 75.62% 35.51 0.893 47.54% -1.597 -0.0489
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5649 77.11% 34.79 2.656 40.25% -1.504 -0.0467
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 48655 72.76% 35.79 1.651 35.69% -1.973 -0.0127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 74082 37.61% 22.88 -1.292 76.89% -0.173 0.0127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 58223 40.41% 26.26 0.24 75.88% -0.087 -0.0603
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 67339 45.3% 34.49 3.214 76.4% -0.153 -0.0071
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 73849 51.36% 39.31 4.796 72.4% -0.335 -0.0725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 67693 48.04% 43.13 6.084 74.27% -0.367 -0.095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 39065 56.2% 45.96 10.421 64.62% -0.175 0.1293
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 126223 69.78% 42.27 4.298 51.25% -1.259 -0.0301
The Kingdom of England 0 1 56570 36.83% 23.0 -1.493 74.75% -0.343 0.0469
The Kingdom of England 1 3 34179 39.96% 29.83 1.337 71.28% -0.456 0.133
The Kingdom of England 2 4 50232 49.71% 29.84 1.152 63.51% -0.555 0.0569
The Kingdom of England 3 6 48760 60.97% 32.02 1.619 50.61% -1.082 0.046
The Kingdom of England 4 7 55667 49.18% 38.64 4.249 58.62% -1.003 -0.0028
The Kingdom of England 5 9 22954 57.59% 39.0 2.871 46.04% -1.584 -0.0772
The Kingdom of England 6 11 128027 58.64% 39.11 1.711 38.14% -1.957 -0.1032
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 31128 42.36% 26.58 -0.382 72.38% -0.509 0.0189
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 19777 53.79% 26.29 -0.907 60.42% -0.853 0.0051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36014 44.24% 31.94 1.75 48.82% -1.249 -0.019
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 36315 54.58% 35.81 3.376 44.2% -1.334 -0.0847
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 23706 50.99% 39.88 4.162 46.35% -1.378 -0.0386
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12099 53.86% 45.48 7.684 50.38% -1.189 -0.1483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 108963 53.6% 47.56 7.023 47.04% -1.466 0.0044
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 6649 27.32% 22.94 -0.775 69.33% -0.144 0.2046
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5856 32.56% 26.58 1.929 61.63% -0.229 0.0375
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6770 39.82% 29.38 3.076 61.62% -0.309 0.0097
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 10495 42.81% 37.01 6.576 64.0% -0.254 0.0316
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9422 51.65% 35.94 4.697 55.43% -0.744 0.0543
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10636 52.33% 38.6 7.421 54.95% -0.518 -0.0041
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 48307 58.58% 41.05 6.594 47.79% -1.161 -0.0143
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 39606 38.84% 22.52 -1.423 75.73% -0.186 0.0653
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 24097 40.53% 26.78 -0.449 75.91% -0.29 -0.0982
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 30836 47.94% 28.59 0.953 72.37% -0.318 -0.101
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 37783 55.92% 35.8 2.798 70.82% -0.537 -0.0856
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 25684 65.09% 34.9 1.89 61.94% -0.896 -0.1513
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12113 66.09% 34.55 1.65 52.56% -1.12 -0.0513
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 85035 64.69% 38.62 3.434 55.64% -1.078 -0.0456
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 14131 33.11% 25.33 -0.049 78.64% -0.086 0.1596
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9719 44.73% 27.4 -0.599 64.07% -0.778 -0.0261
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11167 44.07% 33.48 1.493 71.07% -0.591 -0.1062
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13661 57.61% 35.28 3.513 56.49% -0.82 0.0092
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10823 55.64% 40.14 3.841 59.56% -1.069 -0.0903
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7284 64.04% 40.81 2.566 44.85% -1.829 0.0696
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 54087 68.32% 44.15 4.214 40.53% -1.815 -0.0359

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 23443 40.63% 26.32 60.15% -0.368 0.0547 -0.872
Dahan Insurrection 4 22586 27.26% 48.49 70.91% 0.655 0.173 0.542
Despicable Theft 2 3873 38.37% 27.21 61.55% -0.632 -0.089 -0.421
Elemental Invocation 1 5413 46.25% 24.19 55.55% -0.796 -0.0585 -1.481
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 77862 21.45% 42.96 71.5% 0.517 -0.1396 0.437
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8388 47.92% 26.69 59.74% -1.023 -0.4607 -0.594
Rituals of Terror 3 8798 44.98% 31.08 59.26% -0.435 -0.5771 -0.548
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5286 65.11% 28.67 55.16% -0.939 -0.1904 -0.835
Second Wave 0 71440 41.13% 27.41 72.22% 0.078 0.1727 -0.269
The Great River 3 5238 45.55% 25.8 48.09% -1.165 0.0804 -1.627
Varied Terrains 2 2851 43.44% 22.04 48.23% -1.032 -0.1634 -1.718
Ward the Shores 2 8661 46.93% 27.58 54.92% -0.85 0.0039 -1.023

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 83749 29.73 50.07% -0.145 -0.0741 -0.49
Aid From Lesser Spirits 61010 32.24 54.26% 0.08 -0.03 -0.183
All Things Weaken 55212 29.37 47.44% -0.195 -0.0185 -0.537
Attenuated Essence 10626 28.34 46.37% -0.094 -0.0423 -0.577
Back Against the Wall 58206 30.5 51.54% -0.074 -0.0898 -0.286
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10728 27.12 43.15% -0.243 -0.0589 -0.7
Burn Brightest Before the End 6683 29.74 46.64% -0.035 0.0521 -0.51
Disintegrating Ecosystem 80109 26.69 46.4% -0.336 -0.0446 -0.656
Downward Spiral 206339 23.15 53.32% -0.127 -0.0212 -0.367
Erosion of Will 82913 28.69 47.61% -0.224 -0.0581 -0.633
Intensifying Exploitation 10797 26.0 42.2% -0.275 -0.0866 -0.694
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19931 35.54 75.88% 0.434 0.0057 0.211
Memory Fades to Dust 207705 22.64 49.59% -0.247 -0.0125 -0.499
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54291 29.26 50.36% -0.196 -0.1004 -0.549
Promising Farmlands 79995 27.52 46.73% -0.419 -0.0544 -0.681
Shattered Fragments of Power 6612 29.55 45.51% -0.218 -0.1522 -0.563
Slow Dissolution of Will 10534 26.15 38.48% -0.529 -0.0653 -0.887
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13031 35.99 79.24% 0.547 -0.0538 0.437
The Border of Life and Death 2666 30.55 62.79% 0.471 -0.005 -0.166
Thriving Communities 53723 28.29 47.69% -0.341 -0.1151 -0.571
Thriving Crops 4534 27.93 53.2% 0.167 -0.0579 -0.423
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.638
Unnatural Proliferation 56347 30.61 48.61% -0.181 -0.0591 -0.49
Untended Land Crumbles 54116 28.71 48.55% -0.295 -0.0625 -0.6

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 497617 46.86% 25.94 63.26% -0.179 0.7395 -0.154
B 500996 46.22% 27.98 65.45% -0.071 0.7705 -0.008
C 639119 45.18% 28.36 68.77% 0.103 0.786 0.1
D 461052 46.04% 26.95 65.39% -0.093 0.7491 -0.096
E 230375 44.72% 32.44 66.39% 0.164 0.8154 0.091
F 252215 44.53% 30.84 67.29% 0.015 0.7744 -0.014
G 217177 45.47% 30.1 66.8% -0.03 0.7273 -0.024
H 227948 42.86% 31.49 69.07% 0.081 0.7992 0.088

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 275879 0.0% 16.64 61.12% -0.664 0.0545 -1.084
Not Using Events or Tokens 696350 44.51% 19.49 64.15% -0.444 0.0405 -0.494
Skip Initial Invader Actions 74377 15.29% 36.91 84.63% 0.639 -0.0923 -0.037
Start of Game Growth 110422 18.38% 36.62 83.09% 0.488 0.0423 0.37
Unlimited Undo 284357 37.87% 32.01 73.97% 0.133 0.0999 0.672
Using Tokens but Not Events 300005 32.38% 27.22 75.29% 0.143 -0.0197 -0.292

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 651555 14.25 19.63%
II 1198256 30.3 69.04%
III 819228 34.84 85.18%
IV 357049 38.61 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 127546
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 687427
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 803985
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 351538
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 281791
Lose: Invader deck ran out 45375
Lose: Adversary condition 171629
Win: Sacrifice victory 14060
Lose: Scenario condition 14988
Win: Scenario condition 24070
Lose: Blight pool ran out 479782
Lose: Spirit destroyed 23897

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)