Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7777 38.01% 28.68 -0.501 83.88% -0.321 -0.0383
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5239 44.18% 32.75 1.541 80.34% -0.467 -0.0602
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6535 59.22% 36.42 3.604 70.53% -0.862 0.0129
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8063 64.85% 36.74 3.707 63.56% -1.224 0.0234
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5321 78.82% 39.47 5.36 54.05% -1.419 0.0825
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2450 81.8% 37.96 4.632 42.94% -1.879 0.074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 19154 78.83% 40.87 5.896 42.34% -2.031 0.0121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 45152 38.87% 24.29 -1.737 83.26% -0.085 -0.0432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 29543 42.71% 28.55 0.356 82.65% -0.034 -0.052
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 35693 47.23% 36.95 4.467 82.22% -0.075 -0.0644
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 38938 54.34% 41.92 6.968 77.14% -0.365 -0.0774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 37761 48.23% 45.96 8.743 79.29% -0.418 -0.0501
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 22232 57.69% 49.19 10.509 69.49% -0.883 -0.0579
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64516 72.86% 46.93 9.555 57.3% -1.244 -0.006
The Kingdom of England 0 1 33249 37.85% 24.19 -1.899 80.98% -0.331 0.0006
The Kingdom of England 1 3 17881 43.7% 31.78 1.875 76.57% -0.517 -0.0041
The Kingdom of England 2 4 27649 49.89% 32.66 2.122 70.54% -0.889 0.0772
The Kingdom of England 3 6 25785 64.48% 34.59 3.299 55.4% -1.472 0.1069
The Kingdom of England 4 7 28042 54.68% 41.49 6.252 62.45% -1.441 0.0552
The Kingdom of England 5 9 11356 65.99% 41.39 6.376 46.97% -2.033 0.0389
The Kingdom of England 6 11 65368 61.29% 45.01 7.804 45.32% -2.253 -0.0047
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 19607 44.03% 27.83 -0.567 77.48% -0.558 -0.0448
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10698 58.19% 28.29 -0.121 65.49% -0.972 -0.0706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20888 45.88% 33.0 2.008 50.99% -2.181 -0.0399
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22144 56.23% 37.64 4.197 46.57% -2.267 -0.07
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 14378 51.91% 42.53 6.623 50.19% -2.208 -0.0496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6587 56.04% 48.09 9.311 53.86% -1.898 -0.0839
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 55260 55.14% 50.28 10.408 50.43% -2.139 -0.0427
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 23927 40.0% 23.72 -2.074 82.46% -0.115 -0.0296
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13684 42.13% 28.7 0.341 82.23% -0.054 -0.0215
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16419 50.02% 30.62 1.248 78.28% -0.275 -0.0409
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 21249 58.09% 38.43 5.117 76.62% -0.326 -0.0392
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14325 67.07% 37.46 4.655 66.58% -0.813 -0.0311
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6502 70.55% 37.66 4.803 56.43% -1.259 -0.0932
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 41446 68.97% 41.78 6.685 60.63% -1.156 -0.0318
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5596 33.38% 26.16 -2.013 88.99% 0.047 -0.0571
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3599 49.3% 30.99 0.543 73.88% -0.85 -0.0728
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4399 45.37% 36.87 3.426 79.84% -0.546 -0.1289
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5567 59.96% 39.36 4.755 63.91% -1.311 -0.0525
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4476 58.73% 45.16 7.568 68.19% -1.132 -0.0176
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2581 69.63% 46.39 8.191 51.18% -1.892 0.1053
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 20206 70.8% 53.08 11.432 51.14% -1.875 0.0047

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 14629 46.24% 26.88 -1.888 67.87% -0.576 -0.0072
Dahan Insurrection 4 14187 31.12% 50.31 9.495 74.26% -0.511 -0.1134
Despicable Theft 2 844 43.96% 34.06 1.976 81.28% -0.112 0.1456
Elemental Invocation 1 1622 50.93% 29.72 -0.757 73.8% -0.295 0.1694
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 52251 21.65% 43.4 4.646 74.48% -0.281 0.0854
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6035 55.47% 30.23 0.071 68.17% -0.458 -0.0131
Rituals of Terror 3 5710 49.77% 35.26 3.15 66.69% -0.78 -0.1348
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3846 73.38% 31.79 1.184 60.35% -0.702 -0.0573
Second Wave 0 50956 44.63% 27.62 -1.27 73.54% -0.686 -0.2579
The Great River 3 1982 51.37% 31.21 0.541 61.4% -1.413 0.0578
Ward the Shores 2 6218 51.46% 31.01 0.326 62.32% -0.98 0.0536

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 49553 30.03 -2.362 51.51% -2.189 -0.1159
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36363 32.07 -1.333 54.89% -2.031 -0.1119
All Things Weaken 23251 30.36 -2.454 49.55% -2.285 -0.1142
Back Against the Wall 34160 30.34 -2.108 52.06% -2.194 -0.1027
Disintegrating Ecosystem 46593 27.1 -3.836 48.08% -2.352 -0.1259
Downward Spiral 123823 24.06 -3.552 56.66% -2.122 -0.0992
Erosion of Will 48754 28.97 -2.881 48.97% -2.318 -0.1085
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8208 37.95 1.477 81.4% -0.69 -0.0032
Memory Fades to Dust 125003 23.47 -3.853 52.38% -2.321 -0.1019
Power Corrodes the Spirit 22682 30.56 -2.329 53.4% -2.115 -0.0923
Promising Farmlands 46695 27.98 -3.406 48.33% -2.331 -0.117
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5419 38.28 1.715 85.29% -0.445 -0.0348
Thriving Communities 22303 29.77 -2.743 51.31% -2.194 -0.0992
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.48 48.73% -2.318 -0.0913
Unnatural Proliferation 23728 31.37 -1.973 50.77% -2.229 -0.1425
Untended Land Crumbles 22612 29.93 -2.663 51.57% -2.196 -0.0887

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 265987 49.11% 28.2 -0.947 70.08% -0.193 -0.9767
B 272450 47.92% 30.0 -0.206 72.03% -0.071 -0.9511
C 345285 47.16% 30.34 0.387 75.42% 0.218 -0.8941
D 254978 47.76% 29.11 -0.449 72.14% -0.076 -0.9488
E 82014 48.03% 35.79 1.223 73.63% 0.109 -0.879
F 116216 45.63% 33.65 0.591 74.61% 0.016 -0.9216
G 102008 46.91% 32.46 0.186 73.49% -0.026 -0.9534
H 107675 44.0% 33.88 0.703 75.81% 0.038 -0.8996

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 153065 0.0% 19.31 -4.142 70.79% -2.069 -0.0123
Not Using Events or Tokens 387398 46.9% 22.22 -3.03 73.4% -0.171 0.0447
Skip Initial Invader Actions 44495 14.84% 38.09 2.979 90.5% 0.619 -0.0694
Start of Game Growth 62631 16.78% 37.23 2.546 89.73% 0.519 0.05
Unlimited Undo 154716 37.78% 33.95 1.405 81.93% 0.435 0.0153
Using Tokens but Not Events 154895 35.22% 29.16 -1.163 81.61% 0.033 -0.0186

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 236432 22.35 32.13%
II 659892 30.84 71.57%
III 452937 34.35 85.22%
IV 197352 37.52 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 56421
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 317004
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 366009
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 159416
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26149
Lose: Adversary condition 90281
Win: Sacrifice victory 8157
Lose: Scenario condition 9259
Win: Scenario condition 14390
Lose: Blight pool ran out 276464
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13764

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)