Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1272 25.86% 20.91 -0.979 63.92% -0.288 0.1979
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 942 27.6% 30.33 2.918 73.89% 0.015 0.0347
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 884 38.69% 31.03 3.913 66.97% -0.112 0.0414
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1338 42.33% 34.79 6.144 69.66% 0.09 0.217
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1427 55.54% 36.35 7.16 57.25% -0.414 0.0901
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 807 60.72% 38.56 7.188 49.07% -0.946 0.0276
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 6934 72.63% 26.79 1.418 25.89% -1.97 -0.0527
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18696 36.59% 26.57 -0.259 72.98% -0.351 0.1222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 13338 39.38% 30.25 1.897 72.26% -0.179 0.1121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 16141 53.32% 33.39 3.16 63.56% -0.529 0.0135
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18747 60.99% 33.17 1.958 55.65% -1.04 -0.0939
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12924 75.07% 34.94 2.037 46.69% -1.302 -0.0232
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5964 76.79% 34.29 2.527 39.57% -1.513 -0.0452
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 51848 72.12% 35.1 1.282 34.97% -1.837 -0.0395
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 78165 37.49% 22.52 -1.424 75.65% -0.184 0.0389
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 62390 40.17% 25.85 0.421 74.73% 0.032 -0.0009
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 71880 45.08% 34.0 3.207 75.2% -0.108 -0.0954
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 78316 50.96% 38.78 4.647 71.46% -0.305 -0.0635
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 71455 48.03% 42.61 6.555 73.42% -0.199 -0.0041
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 41593 55.82% 45.53 8.938 64.12% -0.365 0.0131
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 133966 69.4% 41.56 4.024 50.42% -1.23 0.011
The Kingdom of England 0 1 59783 36.79% 22.65 -1.154 73.57% -0.166 0.1433
The Kingdom of England 1 3 36351 39.9% 29.34 0.855 70.15% -0.355 -0.0347
The Kingdom of England 2 4 53364 49.29% 29.48 1.814 62.74% -0.426 0.0534
The Kingdom of England 3 6 51872 60.55% 31.51 1.749 49.85% -1.005 0.0345
The Kingdom of England 4 7 59708 48.56% 38.01 3.182 57.68% -1.145 -0.1449
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24097 57.39% 38.5 4.084 45.43% -1.386 0.124
The Kingdom of England 6 11 136743 58.11% 38.25 2.052 37.25% -1.925 -0.0826
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 32600 42.09% 26.28 -0.492 71.46% -0.412 -0.0351
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 21042 53.13% 25.85 -1.374 59.4% -0.914 -0.0369
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 37832 44.06% 31.63 1.588 48.39% -1.19 -0.0066
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 37874 54.42% 35.49 3.455 43.78% -1.241 -0.1004
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24814 50.54% 39.44 3.818 45.8% -1.477 -0.1671
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12640 53.9% 45.06 6.154 49.85% -1.295 -0.022
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 114440 53.57% 47.07 7.133 46.49% -1.385 0.0084
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7712 27.95% 22.39 -0.843 67.86% -0.12 0.1992
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6790 32.81% 26.02 0.297 60.32% -0.572 -0.0838
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7789 39.58% 29.1 2.525 61.09% -0.373 0.0326
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12266 42.59% 36.74 6.541 63.96% -0.07 -0.0424
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10818 52.04% 35.5 5.998 54.79% -0.498 0.0082
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 12017 52.3% 38.57 8.562 54.97% -0.329 0.1279
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54785 58.32% 40.57 6.961 47.15% -1.05 0.0302
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 41689 38.82% 22.2 -1.292 74.53% -0.177 0.0658
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 25580 40.34% 26.36 0.088 74.78% -0.044 -0.0093
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 32564 47.66% 28.21 0.432 71.42% -0.286 -0.045
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 39947 55.64% 35.39 3.728 70.0% -0.225 0.0252
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 27223 64.62% 34.33 2.299 60.98% -0.722 0.0325
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12696 65.92% 34.12 1.805 51.88% -1.13 -0.0316
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90847 64.4% 38.01 3.816 54.78% -0.901 -0.0053
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 15236 32.81% 25.02 0.015 77.27% -0.017 0.2236
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10617 44.05% 26.76 -0.85 62.45% -0.825 -0.0707
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11987 44.14% 33.02 2.193 70.08% -0.431 -0.063
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 14613 57.18% 34.6 1.043 55.33% -1.249 -0.0791
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11720 55.8% 39.24 3.59 58.03% -0.985 -0.0287
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7839 63.12% 40.08 4.023 44.14% -1.498 0.0824
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 59185 67.37% 43.3 5.677 39.93% -1.521 -0.0052

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 25125 39.63% 26.11 59.25% -0.197 0.0535 -0.847
Dahan Insurrection 4 24120 26.79% 48.02 70.25% 0.241 -0.0074 0.562
Despicable Theft 2 4300 37.78% 26.5 59.98% -0.257 0.2053 -0.404
Elemental Invocation 1 5993 45.44% 23.64 54.23% -0.597 0.1056 -1.495
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81354 21.29% 42.66 71.01% 0.491 -0.062 0.468
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8886 47.2% 26.14 58.65% -0.425 0.1987 -0.6
Rituals of Terror 3 9286 44.74% 30.5 58.22% -0.573 -0.3805 -0.545
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5610 64.0% 28.04 54.15% -1.117 -0.1951 -0.844
Second Wave 0 74695 40.98% 27.24 71.78% 0.008 0.1256 -0.228
The Great River 3 5672 44.72% 25.33 47.36% -0.972 0.096 -1.572
Varied Terrains 2 3252 43.56% 21.65 47.36% -0.809 -0.0677 -1.638
Ward the Shores 2 9173 46.57% 26.95 53.74% -1.082 0.0016 -0.989

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 87754 29.56 49.75% -0.291 -0.0419 -0.438
Aid From Lesser Spirits 63616 32.13 54.06% 0.041 -0.0772 -0.125
All Things Weaken 59213 29.07 46.99% -0.428 -0.0908 -0.487
Attenuated Essence 13346 28.15 46.19% -0.087 -0.0603 -0.499
Back Against the Wall 60760 30.37 51.27% -0.131 -0.13 -0.236
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13485 26.89 43.11% -0.264 -0.0471 -0.62
Burn Brightest Before the End 8387 29.72 46.64% -0.047 -0.0655 -0.418
Disintegrating Ecosystem 84132 26.5 46.06% -0.469 -0.0757 -0.604
Downward Spiral 217443 22.91 52.83% -0.152 -0.0434 -0.312
Erosion of Will 86893 28.53 47.27% -0.44 -0.0878 -0.578
Intensifying Exploitation 13556 25.7 41.87% -0.297 -0.0516 -0.647
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21362 35.08 74.92% 0.423 -0.1007 0.242
Memory Fades to Dust 218670 22.41 49.12% -0.311 -0.0634 -0.449
Power Corrodes the Spirit 58176 28.94 49.8% -0.287 -0.0649 -0.502
Promising Farmlands 83859 27.35 46.43% -0.401 -0.1181 -0.625
Shattered Fragments of Power 8260 29.43 45.67% -0.158 -0.0814 -0.452
Slow Dissolution of Will 13209 26.02 38.47% -0.474 -0.0769 -0.801
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13901 35.54 78.5% 0.725 0.0296 0.457
The Border of Life and Death 3323 30.31 62.56% 0.526 -0.0747 -0.072
Thriving Communities 57577 27.99 47.26% -0.409 -0.0529 -0.516
Thriving Crops 5639 27.79 53.33% 0.118 -0.0779 -0.368
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.58
Unnatural Proliferation 60234 30.36 48.28% -0.268 -0.1058 -0.426
Untended Land Crumbles 58111 28.43 48.14% -0.254 -0.0224 -0.544

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 531647 46.6% 25.49 62.13% -0.162 0.8427 -0.153
B 533611 45.95% 27.53 64.4% -0.065 0.8543 -0.003
C 682471 45.0% 27.94 67.69% 0.183 0.917 0.112
D 491679 45.83% 26.48 64.2% -0.13 0.8484 -0.109
E 251541 44.46% 31.84 65.19% 0.072 0.8913 0.083
F 271359 44.33% 30.32 66.17% -0.023 0.8505 -0.017
G 233102 45.29% 29.69 65.85% 0.042 0.8511 -0.015
H 244669 42.74% 31.02 68.03% 0.071 0.8859 0.086

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 297092 0.0% 16.22 59.62% -0.634 0.074 -1.028
Not Using Events or Tokens 745304 44.25% 19.04 62.71% -0.309 0.0593 -0.509
Skip Initial Invader Actions 77949 15.19% 36.72 83.94% 0.486 -0.0987 0.013
Start of Game Growth 116645 18.53% 36.39 82.22% 0.623 0.109 0.403
Unlimited Undo 299911 37.73% 31.64 73.01% 0.163 0.0532 0.677
Using Tokens but Not Events 321456 32.23% 26.79 74.14% -0.012 -0.0374 -0.313

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 729658 13.33 18.28%
II 1268561 30.1 68.6%
III 865912 34.83 85.13%
IV 375537 38.67 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 132972
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 726311
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 845798
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 369789
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 350031
Lose: Invader deck ran out 47496
Lose: Adversary condition 180927
Win: Sacrifice victory 14733
Lose: Scenario condition 15519
Win: Scenario condition 25170
Lose: Blight pool ran out 505797
Lose: Spirit destroyed 25125

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)