Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6196 38.14% 28.53 -0.519 83.7% -0.328 -0.0451
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3941 44.51% 32.75 1.56 80.16% -0.464 -0.0695
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5259 59.2% 36.51 3.669 70.72% -0.853 0.0079
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6555 64.08% 36.97 3.844 64.23% -1.21 0.0403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4225 79.05% 39.21 5.28 53.4% -1.445 0.0891
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1922 83.35% 36.49 4.012 39.39% -1.995 0.0727
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 14962 78.97% 40.4 5.72 41.26% -2.079 -0.0016
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 38745 39.5% 24.17 -1.726 82.87% -0.093 -0.0499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 24862 42.91% 28.53 0.408 82.48% -0.028 -0.0541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 30871 47.24% 36.99 4.544 82.2% -0.06 -0.0597
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 33645 54.19% 41.91 7.013 76.84% -0.374 -0.081
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 32502 47.87% 45.98 8.814 79.17% -0.419 -0.0486
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 19387 58.99% 48.84 10.44 68.56% -0.89 -0.0516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 55131 72.83% 46.7 9.505 56.69% -1.259 -0.0106
The Kingdom of England 0 1 28178 38.66% 24.04 -1.898 80.52% -0.328 0.0023
The Kingdom of England 1 3 15046 44.48% 31.7 1.893 76.36% -0.499 -0.0095
The Kingdom of England 2 4 23861 49.9% 32.59 2.141 70.32% -0.892 0.0721
The Kingdom of England 3 6 22491 64.54% 34.52 3.335 55.12% -1.469 0.1107
The Kingdom of England 4 7 23322 55.97% 41.05 6.105 61.28% -1.453 0.0615
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9461 67.32% 41.12 6.347 46.35% -2.016 0.0548
The Kingdom of England 6 11 55668 60.68% 45.1 7.904 45.36% -2.257 -0.0001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 17372 44.32% 27.7 -0.556 76.95% -0.572 -0.0462
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9279 58.1% 28.27 -0.048 65.22% -0.966 -0.0775
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 18381 45.69% 33.09 2.103 51.21% -2.161 -0.0338
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19431 55.77% 37.74 4.302 46.77% -2.253 -0.0685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12584 51.05% 42.77 6.756 50.66% -2.2 -0.0489
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5826 55.76% 48.27 9.442 54.12% -1.88 -0.0542
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 45416 55.43% 49.79 10.208 49.39% -2.177 -0.0497
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 20858 40.16% 23.67 -2.021 82.17% -0.118 -0.0303
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11772 42.21% 28.73 0.41 82.2% -0.04 -0.0287
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14101 49.97% 30.63 1.329 78.21% -0.257 -0.0372
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 18635 57.74% 38.47 5.187 76.67% -0.317 -0.0343
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12410 67.21% 37.43 4.72 66.42% -0.798 -0.027
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5664 70.29% 37.64 4.852 56.21% -1.258 -0.0912
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 35037 68.67% 41.7 6.682 60.28% -1.166 -0.0348
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4082 32.61% 26.23 -1.972 89.22% 0.055 -0.0671
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2483 47.01% 31.64 0.8 75.63% -0.796 -0.0803
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3230 44.4% 36.93 3.444 79.94% -0.571 -0.1332
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4278 59.0% 39.65 4.877 64.47% -1.317 -0.0584
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3301 58.89% 45.18 7.593 68.25% -1.127 0.0131
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2082 69.7% 46.28 8.11 50.82% -1.936 0.1246
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14531 71.64% 52.31 11.105 49.48% -1.933 0.0025

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 12743 46.8% 26.64 -1.932 67.16% -0.587 -0.0098
Dahan Insurrection 4 12488 31.9% 50.36 9.536 73.69% -0.498 -0.0976
Despicable Theft 2 131 35.11% 33.14 1.544 87.02% -0.126 0.3023
Elemental Invocation 1 829 49.15% 29.37 -0.916 74.91% -0.312 0.0695
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 46296 21.51% 43.35 4.699 74.49% -0.266 0.0995
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5374 55.55% 30.25 0.123 67.92% -0.46 -0.0182
Rituals of Terror 3 5041 50.13% 35.36 3.203 66.63% -0.76 -0.1321
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3416 73.47% 31.79 1.242 59.95% -0.699 -0.0492
Second Wave 0 44651 44.93% 27.59 -1.241 73.36% -0.679 -0.2623
The Great River 3 1349 49.67% 31.84 0.711 63.97% -1.364 0.1077
Ward the Shores 2 5558 52.17% 30.96 0.314 61.37% -1.0 0.0364

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 42730 29.86 -2.379 51.21% -2.195 -0.1253
Aid From Lesser Spirits 31175 31.86 -1.369 54.74% -2.036 -0.1178
All Things Weaken 17303 30.45 -2.379 49.55% -2.274 -0.1193
Back Against the Wall 29114 30.04 -2.183 51.67% -2.207 -0.1107
Disintegrating Ecosystem 40137 26.96 -3.842 47.83% -2.355 -0.1311
Downward Spiral 108757 23.97 -3.544 56.41% -2.124 -0.107
Erosion of Will 41853 28.84 -2.883 48.71% -2.323 -0.113
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6084 37.78 1.44 80.88% -0.717 -0.0123
Memory Fades to Dust 109737 23.34 -3.858 52.11% -2.324 -0.1089
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16877 30.42 -2.348 53.05% -2.123 -0.1032
Promising Farmlands 40224 27.84 -3.415 48.13% -2.333 -0.1203
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4008 37.93 1.602 84.78% -0.491 -0.0559
Thriving Communities 16606 29.56 -2.785 51.04% -2.202 -0.1046
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.452 48.73% -2.313 -0.0944
Unnatural Proliferation 17570 31.28 -1.977 50.48% -2.231 -0.1534
Untended Land Crumbles 16811 29.72 -2.709 51.2% -2.203 -0.104

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 231788 49.01% 28.14 -0.914 69.96% -0.19 -1.2798
B 236337 47.88% 29.85 -0.195 71.91% -0.068 -1.2532
C 299907 47.26% 30.25 0.412 75.22% 0.218 -1.1969
D 222151 47.74% 28.98 -0.434 72.01% -0.075 -1.2517
E 60847 47.93% 35.77 1.232 73.48% 0.101 -1.1758
F 93806 45.46% 33.54 0.592 74.61% 0.018 -1.2251
G 83295 46.85% 32.39 0.196 73.33% -0.026 -1.2566
H 88191 43.89% 33.8 0.715 75.66% 0.036 -1.2039

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 133673 0.0% 19.33 -4.096 70.77% -2.059 -0.0146
Not Using Events or Tokens 336621 47.5% 22.12 -3.048 73.13% -0.17 0.0487
Skip Initial Invader Actions 39252 14.75% 37.94 3.026 90.54% 0.631 -0.0729
Start of Game Growth 54618 16.8% 36.94 2.487 89.71% 0.512 0.0581
Unlimited Undo 132607 37.44% 33.82 1.409 81.74% 0.418 0.0062
Using Tokens but Not Events 132907 36.16% 28.95 -1.193 81.06% 0.028 -0.0193

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 204186 22.34 32.41%
II 563398 30.75 71.62%
III 382782 34.26 84.98%
IV 165956 37.47 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 46667
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 257293
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 299065
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 128535
Lose: Invader deck ran out 22750
Lose: Adversary condition 76102
Win: Sacrifice victory 6700
Lose: Scenario condition 8127
Win: Scenario condition 12599
Lose: Blight pool ran out 237465
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11720

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)