Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5734 38.42% 28.51 -0.5 83.61% -0.324 -0.0434
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3598 44.88% 32.81 1.614 80.46% -0.426 -0.053
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4908 58.93% 36.58 3.717 70.84% -0.841 0.0064
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6098 63.76% 37.04 3.895 64.4% -1.201 0.0367
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3902 79.01% 39.33 5.35 53.77% -1.419 0.1033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1714 83.26% 36.84 4.214 40.08% -1.953 0.075
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 13866 79.08% 40.23 5.674 40.88% -2.086 0.0061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 36861 39.69% 24.14 -1.73 82.71% -0.1 -0.0529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 23643 43.02% 28.53 0.424 82.43% -0.022 -0.0503
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29470 47.24% 36.98 4.564 82.12% -0.057 -0.0596
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 32109 54.2% 41.94 7.051 76.86% -0.364 -0.0799
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 30852 48.14% 45.88 8.792 78.86% -0.426 -0.048
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 18578 59.06% 48.82 10.454 68.5% -0.884 -0.0506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 52462 72.86% 46.64 9.493 56.52% -1.259 -0.01
The Kingdom of England 0 1 26737 38.7% 23.98 -1.894 80.38% -0.332 0.0011
The Kingdom of England 1 3 14315 44.54% 31.68 1.91 76.32% -0.495 -0.0118
The Kingdom of England 2 4 22802 49.79% 32.59 2.16 70.38% -0.886 0.0711
The Kingdom of England 3 6 21534 64.42% 34.51 3.353 55.07% -1.468 0.1097
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21962 56.15% 40.95 6.073 60.98% -1.455 0.0674
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8858 67.6% 41.16 6.395 46.43% -1.997 0.0669
The Kingdom of England 6 11 52826 60.58% 45.05 7.92 45.26% -2.249 0.006
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 16675 44.25% 27.69 -0.539 76.85% -0.574 -0.0494
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 8902 58.2% 28.18 -0.062 64.87% -0.973 -0.0821
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 17594 45.56% 33.08 2.117 51.15% -2.16 -0.0321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18614 55.43% 37.76 4.322 46.72% -2.259 -0.0724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12111 50.73% 42.88 6.824 50.88% -2.191 -0.0454
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5486 55.4% 48.52 9.572 54.59% -1.859 -0.0409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 43115 55.43% 49.68 10.174 49.12% -2.183 -0.048
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 19902 40.2% 23.66 -2.003 82.1% -0.116 -0.0305
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11187 42.52% 28.65 0.387 82.04% -0.038 -0.0286
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13508 50.01% 30.63 1.351 78.13% -0.256 -0.0391
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 17921 57.67% 38.45 5.194 76.56% -0.322 -0.0376
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11897 67.02% 37.38 4.72 66.24% -0.803 -0.0259
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5385 70.21% 37.59 4.858 55.97% -1.258 -0.0925
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 33252 68.63% 41.64 6.668 60.08% -1.171 -0.0389
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3655 32.28% 26.31 -1.939 89.3% 0.054 -0.0634
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2200 47.24% 31.75 0.858 75.82% -0.779 -0.0909
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2904 44.49% 37.0 3.494 80.17% -0.551 -0.1151
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3781 59.19% 39.6 4.869 64.32% -1.322 -0.0476
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2946 59.71% 45.01 7.545 67.79% -1.132 0.0254
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1949 69.32% 46.55 8.226 51.41% -1.918 0.1181
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12972 71.97% 51.99 10.971 48.9% -1.948 0.0013

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 12085 46.82% 26.57 -1.933 67.37% -0.577 -0.0048
Dahan Insurrection 4 11954 31.95% 50.22 9.499 73.55% -0.497 -0.0966
Elemental Invocation 1 488 50.31% 29.13 -1.051 74.59% -0.328 0.1378
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 44455 21.5% 43.18 4.643 74.13% -0.282 0.0938
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5167 55.6% 30.09 0.076 67.8% -0.471 -0.0238
Rituals of Terror 3 4854 50.0% 35.43 3.236 66.73% -0.756 -0.1335
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3309 73.39% 31.76 1.247 59.9% -0.696 -0.0714
Second Wave 0 42841 44.93% 27.57 -1.228 73.34% -0.678 -0.2592
The Great River 3 1062 49.81% 31.94 0.724 64.69% -1.343 0.1416
Ward the Shores 2 5364 51.95% 31.06 0.369 61.67% -0.991 0.0396

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 40774 29.85 -2.368 51.18% -2.193 -0.1252
Aid From Lesser Spirits 29701 31.82 -1.371 54.63% -2.036 -0.1195
All Things Weaken 15614 30.42 -2.372 49.39% -2.275 -0.1147
Back Against the Wall 27721 30.03 -2.176 51.59% -2.206 -0.1141
Disintegrating Ecosystem 38258 26.91 -3.847 47.79% -2.354 -0.1322
Downward Spiral 104326 23.92 -3.548 56.4% -2.123 -0.109
Erosion of Will 39983 28.79 -2.891 48.59% -2.324 -0.1129
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5519 37.74 1.431 80.59% -0.725 -0.0131
Memory Fades to Dust 105287 23.28 -3.871 52.02% -2.326 -0.1104
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15283 30.36 -2.358 52.91% -2.123 -0.1031
Promising Farmlands 38359 27.79 -3.422 47.96% -2.336 -0.1214
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 3639 38.0 1.634 84.97% -0.477 -0.0596
Thriving Communities 14965 29.49 -2.805 50.75% -2.212 -0.1051
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.447 48.73% -2.311 -0.0945
Unnatural Proliferation 15891 31.27 -1.969 50.39% -2.229 -0.1484
Untended Land Crumbles 15222 29.73 -2.683 51.24% -2.198 -0.1028

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 222041 49.0% 28.14 -0.897 69.94% -0.187 -1.2601
B 225694 47.84% 29.78 -0.2 71.85% -0.069 -1.2338
C 287009 47.26% 30.24 0.425 75.17% 0.22 -1.1768
D 212551 47.7% 28.96 -0.421 72.01% -0.073 -1.2313
E 54417 48.04% 35.69 1.213 73.33% 0.097 -1.1601
F 87715 45.41% 33.5 0.589 74.55% 0.017 -1.2094
G 78402 46.84% 32.37 0.205 73.26% -0.025 -1.2371
H 82897 43.89% 33.76 0.711 75.56% 0.035 -1.186

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 127901 0.0% 19.36 -4.074 70.82% -2.053 -0.0146
Not Using Events or Tokens 321394 47.68% 22.08 -3.06 73.08% -0.171 0.049
Skip Initial Invader Actions 37924 14.73% 37.77 2.989 90.55% 0.624 -0.0823
Start of Game Growth 52553 16.81% 36.83 2.487 89.78% 0.526 0.0671
Unlimited Undo 126317 37.36% 33.68 1.374 81.64% 0.408 0.0055
Using Tokens but Not Events 127119 36.27% 28.9 -1.197 80.98% 0.029 -0.0172

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 194973 22.34 32.52%
II 535576 30.71 71.63%
III 362874 34.23 84.89%
IV 157303 37.48 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 43898
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 240359
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 279667
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 120023
Lose: Invader deck ran out 21791
Lose: Adversary condition 72072
Win: Sacrifice victory 6306
Lose: Scenario condition 7835
Win: Scenario condition 12086
Lose: Blight pool ran out 226321
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11069

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)