Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 15740 45.62% 27.86 67.74% -0.919 -0.4621 -1.114
Dahan Insurrection 4 14478 29.78% 51.49 75.4% 0.17 0.1898 0.315
Despicable Theft 2 2004 45.83% 33.59 76.5% -0.35 0.1622 -0.264
Elemental Invocation 1 3057 52.31% 29.51 70.1% -0.961 -0.2619 -1.223
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 56324 22.42% 44.34 74.05% 0.066 0.1072 0.048
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5936 54.08% 30.83 68.78% -0.486 0.0756 -0.535
Rituals of Terror 3 5840 50.88% 35.6 66.73% -0.514 -0.8023 -0.6
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3776 71.53% 33.01 62.21% -0.358 0.0724 -0.847
Second Wave 0 53517 42.73% 28.33 74.74% -0.622 -0.1596 -0.516
The Great River 3 3198 53.48% 31.07 58.35% -1.714 0.0525 -1.628
Varied Terrains 2 705 52.06% 32.02 71.77% -0.822 0.0062 -0.914
Ward the Shores 2 6236 50.28% 31.25 62.14% -0.558 0.1861 -1.035

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 66921 30.39 51.42% -1.833 -0.102 -1.033
Aid From Lesser Spirits 49524 32.62 55.14% -1.659 -0.083 -0.725
All Things Weaken 39175 30.74 49.67% -1.996 -0.1186 -1.058
Attenuated Essence 46 33.46 65.22% -0.805 0.0498 -0.576
Back Against the Wall 46775 30.91 52.35% -1.748 -0.1115 -0.827
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 32.37 48.84% -1.423 0.025 -0.614
Burn Brightest Before the End 29 30.83 68.97% -0.696 0.3124 -0.346
Disintegrating Ecosystem 63116 27.49 48.04% -2.0 -0.1566 -1.197
Downward Spiral 158964 24.43 56.37% -1.731 -0.0332 -0.905
Erosion of Will 65901 29.33 48.88% -1.97 -0.0695 -1.171
Intensifying Exploitation 39 36.69 58.97% -0.781 0.1079 -0.192
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13965 37.95 81.12% -0.534 -0.0337 -0.147
Memory Fades to Dust 160233 23.84 52.3% -1.928 -0.0518 -1.036
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38384 30.75 53.04% -1.748 -0.0438 -1.062
Promising Farmlands 63182 28.43 48.52% -1.987 -0.1113 -1.198
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 33.72 59.38% -1.045 0.1108 -0.103
Slow Dissolution of Will 34 30.79 52.94% -1.337 0.1344 -0.752
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9164 38.26 84.53% -0.244 -0.0335 0.087
The Border of Life and Death 10 39.9 90.0% 0.21 -0.0511 0.47
Thriving Communities 37715 29.95 50.63% -1.993 -0.1225 -1.066
Thriving Crops 22 30.18 63.64% -0.963 -0.0081 0.443
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.209
Unnatural Proliferation 40398 31.68 50.47% -1.878 -0.1235 -1.025
Untended Land Crumbles 38195 30.09 51.11% -1.889 -0.0751 -1.124

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 349906 49.24% 28.53 70.07% -0.165 0.6125 -0.149
B 357841 48.06% 30.4 71.82% -0.056 0.6476 -0.004
C 457683 47.15% 30.73 75.19% 0.162 0.6894 0.07
D 332117 47.92% 29.42 71.94% -0.075 0.6595 -0.081
E 140066 47.8% 35.94 73.31% 0.12 0.7037 0.1
F 170477 46.32% 33.69 74.02% -0.053 0.6537 -0.01
G 148323 47.47% 32.65 73.15% 0.004 0.6456 -0.031
H 155378 44.58% 33.93 75.46% 0.078 0.7234 0.092

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 191449 0.0% 19.23 70.63% -2.072 0.003 -1.609
Not Using Events or Tokens 488063 46.46% 22.27 73.44% -0.105 0.0671 -0.245
Skip Initial Invader Actions 55979 15.09% 38.54 90.48% 0.919 -0.14 -0.058
Start of Game Growth 81493 17.78% 38.3 89.35% 0.529 0.1069 0.607
Unlimited Undo 206158 38.7% 34.59 81.77% 0.475 0.0595 0.815
Using Tokens but Not Events 208729 34.7% 29.39 81.39% -0.146 -0.0307 -0.189

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 321899 22.63 30.69%
II 894167 31.12 71.25%
III 622083 34.7 85.46%
IV 273230 37.97 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 98502
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 523301
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 619603
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 268748
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 932
Lose: Invader deck ran out 35562
Lose: Adversary condition 130317
Win: Sacrifice victory 11358
Lose: Scenario condition 12332
Win: Scenario condition 18093
Lose: Blight pool ran out 373963
Lose: Spirit destroyed 18668

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)