Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 14860 37.57% 27.78 0.012 77.23% -0.285 0.0955
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10496 41.0% 31.69 1.424 76.06% -0.265 0.0123
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12815 55.87% 34.65 2.497 66.0% -0.678 0.0811
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14985 62.98% 34.64 1.949 58.6% -1.054 0.0657
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 10242 77.69% 37.2 2.828 50.01% -1.286 0.0706
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4827 78.35% 36.11 3.353 41.74% -1.32 -0.0255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 40776 74.53% 37.77 1.737 37.76% -1.974 -0.0252
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 66280 38.18% 23.5 -1.372 79.24% -0.16 0.0465
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 49858 41.4% 27.3 0.212 78.91% -0.075 -0.0649
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 58250 46.03% 35.58 3.438 78.9% -0.112 -0.0849
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 63826 52.55% 40.57 5.549 74.63% -0.211 0.0771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 59183 48.46% 44.53 6.089 76.7% -0.341 -0.0435
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 33740 57.86% 46.9 7.807 65.65% -0.568 0.035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 107864 71.25% 44.17 3.458 53.38% -1.414 -0.0206
The Kingdom of England 0 1 50585 37.22% 23.62 -1.385 77.11% -0.304 0.0202
The Kingdom of England 1 3 29927 40.81% 30.62 1.805 73.4% -0.194 0.1013
The Kingdom of England 2 4 42548 49.92% 31.1 1.184 66.52% -0.644 0.0798
The Kingdom of England 3 6 42001 62.31% 33.11 1.321 52.38% -1.17 0.0662
The Kingdom of England 4 7 46740 51.42% 40.14 3.158 60.85% -1.165 0.0159
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19330 59.71% 40.47 3.552 47.49% -1.55 0.0235
The Kingdom of England 6 11 109714 60.17% 41.29 1.804 40.39% -2.065 -0.1237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 28010 43.21% 27.26 -0.234 74.51% -0.394 0.0873
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17321 55.53% 26.98 -0.561 62.01% -0.81 0.0262
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 31949 44.78% 32.53 3.355 49.77% -1.007 0.0242
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 32817 55.27% 36.52 3.418 45.05% -1.407 -0.0016
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20947 52.14% 40.97 4.877 47.63% -1.272 0.1486
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10684 54.96% 46.34 9.583 51.33% -0.889 -0.0418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 95460 54.24% 48.71 8.127 48.21% -1.439 -0.0527
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4346 27.6% 24.22 -1.24 73.56% -0.28 0.0057
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3734 33.61% 27.68 0.564 64.49% -0.538 -0.0587
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4323 41.35% 30.52 2.614 64.1% -0.362 -0.0847
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6585 44.42% 38.63 6.363 66.86% -0.381 0.0304
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6278 53.04% 37.14 4.203 57.1% -0.866 0.0205
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6073 54.23% 39.55 5.108 55.31% -0.999 -0.1893
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 31024 61.23% 41.84 7.98 48.14% -1.06 -0.0392
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 35245 39.48% 23.17 -1.16 78.36% -0.12 0.0296
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 21314 41.26% 27.57 0.252 78.35% -0.13 -0.0024
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 26847 48.94% 29.38 0.932 74.5% -0.237 -0.0385
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 32959 57.11% 36.92 3.74 73.07% -0.322 0.0959
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 22220 65.99% 36.05 2.703 63.92% -0.697 0.0069
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10427 67.7% 35.98 2.3 54.56% -0.906 0.0284
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73216 65.85% 40.03 3.127 57.67% -1.067 -0.0762
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11761 34.13% 25.88 -0.13 81.59% -0.048 0.0512
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7961 46.29% 28.74 -1.735 67.34% -1.004 -0.056
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 9383 44.95% 34.76 2.893 73.96% -0.226 0.0549
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11385 58.92% 36.6 1.893 58.53% -1.13 -0.0189
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8978 56.69% 42.08 2.819 62.64% -1.166 -0.1567
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6139 65.38% 42.24 2.805 46.46% -1.749 -0.0823
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 44623 69.86% 46.8 3.968 43.13% -1.943 -0.1342

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 19810 42.56% 26.89 63.34% -0.124 0.0075 -0.922
Dahan Insurrection 4 18470 28.62% 49.6 72.89% 0.466 0.2105 0.479
Despicable Theft 2 3041 40.62% 29.16 66.13% -0.428 0.1135 -0.472
Elemental Invocation 1 4325 49.03% 26.02 59.98% -0.9 -0.0434 -1.457
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 67370 22.21% 43.65 72.67% 0.836 0.0649 0.322
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7254 50.19% 28.25 63.1% -0.929 0.0055 -0.566
Rituals of Terror 3 7478 46.62% 32.19 61.09% -0.468 -0.3721 -0.62
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4619 67.67% 30.18 57.72% -1.117 0.0798 -0.863
Second Wave 0 63229 42.08% 27.64 73.05% 0.054 0.1401 -0.39
The Great River 3 4306 49.26% 27.85 51.65% -1.389 -0.0274 -1.535
Varied Terrains 2 1868 43.6% 24.1 53.43% -0.726 0.0625 -1.889
Ward the Shores 2 7538 48.43% 29.05 57.61% -1.0 0.0319 -1.007

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 75985 29.96 50.54% -0.221 -0.0919 -0.663
Aid From Lesser Spirits 55900 32.37 54.53% 0.005 -0.1134 -0.358
All Things Weaken 47654 29.89 48.26% -0.373 -0.0654 -0.705
Attenuated Essence 5231 28.74 46.57% -0.098 -0.0659 -0.778
Back Against the Wall 53116 30.64 51.81% -0.133 -0.1028 -0.463
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5320 27.56 42.99% -0.273 -0.0866 -0.861
Burn Brightest Before the End 3471 30.45 47.16% -0.095 -0.0244 -0.659
Disintegrating Ecosystem 72228 27.0 46.94% -0.446 -0.0699 -0.83
Downward Spiral 183844 23.62 54.47% -0.22 -0.0542 -0.535
Erosion of Will 75003 28.91 48.03% -0.306 -0.0913 -0.812
Intensifying Exploitation 5350 26.66 42.32% -0.333 -0.0918 -0.86
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17136 36.54 78.02% 0.56 -0.0209 0.114
Memory Fades to Dust 185360 23.06 50.6% -0.321 -0.0279 -0.674
Power Corrodes the Spirit 46729 29.89 51.4% -0.249 -0.0877 -0.696
Promising Farmlands 72147 27.89 47.43% -0.366 -0.0702 -0.838
Shattered Fragments of Power 3493 30.59 46.46% -0.172 -0.0841 -0.743
Slow Dissolution of Will 5296 26.62 38.67% -0.424 -0.0307 -1.046
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11219 37.02 81.31% 0.727 0.0156 0.348
The Border of Life and Death 1371 31.01 63.09% 0.411 -0.0683 -0.326
Thriving Communities 46146 28.95 48.82% -0.4 -0.1005 -0.718
Thriving Crops 2312 28.54 53.07% -0.056 -0.1582 -0.564
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.82
Unnatural Proliferation 48823 31.03 49.28% -0.272 -0.1027 -0.657
Untended Land Crumbles 46546 29.26 49.52% -0.353 -0.0953 -0.768

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 427122 47.85% 26.92 65.85% -0.161 0.9815 -0.153
B 433509 46.99% 28.88 67.89% -0.062 0.9926 -0.008
C 554335 46.05% 29.24 71.27% 0.171 1.0594 0.103
D 399913 46.77% 27.88 67.93% -0.061 0.9927 -0.09
E 187363 45.9% 33.74 68.74% 0.14 1.0447 0.081
F 212208 45.34% 31.89 69.82% -0.05 0.9545 -0.019
G 184538 46.41% 31.09 69.25% -0.006 0.9622 -0.013
H 193108 43.58% 32.41 71.5% 0.016 1.0091 0.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 238657 0.0% 17.59 64.58% -0.537 0.1266 -1.382
Not Using Events or Tokens 600283 45.3% 20.5 67.66% -0.457 0.0368 -0.379
Skip Initial Invader Actions 65964 15.26% 37.28 86.93% 0.516 -0.1062 -0.061
Start of Game Growth 96187 18.17% 37.11 85.72% 0.432 0.02 0.436
Unlimited Undo 246548 38.34% 33.06 77.06% 0.13 0.035 0.691
Using Tokens but Not Events 254047 33.43% 28.02 77.8% -0.033 0.0425 -0.235

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 495136 16.77 22.96%
II 1054752 30.59 69.91%
III 724177 34.74 85.26%
IV 317621 38.3 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 113345
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 607985
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 716964
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 312572
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 147375
Lose: Invader deck ran out 40687
Lose: Adversary condition 152336
Win: Sacrifice victory 12857
Lose: Scenario condition 13787
Win: Scenario condition 21105
Lose: Blight pool ran out 431321
Lose: Spirit destroyed 21352

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)