Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 842 26.96% 21.73 0.471 67.93% 0.192 0.1839
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 636 27.52% 31.72 5.124 77.52% 0.54 0.1619
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 561 37.08% 31.47 4.777 68.81% 0.126 0.1075
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 887 42.62% 35.17 6.614 70.35% 0.157 0.0475
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 933 56.01% 36.62 7.253 57.88% -0.454 0.001
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 520 62.5% 39.67 8.617 51.15% -0.775 0.0566
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 4820 73.07% 27.73 2.803 27.55% -1.769 -0.0695
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18161 36.61% 26.73 -0.047 73.55% -0.325 0.0868
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12865 39.59% 30.42 1.694 72.66% -0.283 0.079
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15607 53.62% 33.52 3.582 63.77% -0.494 -0.0075
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 18180 61.22% 33.37 2.247 56.09% -0.969 0.0276
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12544 75.28% 35.16 0.887 47.0% -1.58 -0.0278
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5789 77.02% 34.45 -0.114 39.77% -1.893 0.0054
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 50112 72.42% 35.45 0.894 35.32% -1.987 -0.0499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 76106 37.53% 22.7 -1.172 76.27% -0.176 0.0136
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 60487 40.27% 26.01 0.5 75.18% -0.003 0.0065
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 69387 45.17% 34.26 3.246 75.87% -0.143 -0.0852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 75966 51.22% 39.05 4.82 71.93% -0.306 -0.0325
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 69457 48.03% 42.84 5.845 73.79% -0.336 -0.0068
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 40202 55.95% 45.78 9.679 64.43% -0.239 0.1666
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 129739 69.62% 41.91 3.736 50.82% -1.307 -0.0027
The Kingdom of England 0 1 58238 36.83% 22.8 -1.371 74.09% -0.269 0.0322
The Kingdom of England 1 3 35259 39.89% 29.59 1.36 70.72% -0.322 0.0047
The Kingdom of England 2 4 51739 49.55% 29.64 1.487 63.08% -0.516 0.0621
The Kingdom of England 3 6 50216 60.84% 31.77 1.897 50.23% -1.041 0.0561
The Kingdom of England 4 7 57515 48.85% 38.37 4.059 58.24% -1.014 0.0256
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23496 57.55% 38.69 1.741 45.62% -1.755 0.0382
The Kingdom of England 6 11 132234 58.27% 38.65 1.775 37.69% -1.917 -0.0189
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 31871 42.27% 26.41 -0.488 71.87% -0.482 -0.0367
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 20357 53.49% 26.09 -0.745 59.95% -0.823 -0.0443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36753 44.17% 31.79 1.623 48.62% -1.205 0.0325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 37070 54.47% 35.6 2.6 43.91% -1.417 -0.1031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24202 50.83% 39.7 4.497 46.12% -1.374 -0.0812
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 12336 53.82% 45.35 8.06 50.21% -1.052 -0.0315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 111347 53.62% 47.35 7.501 46.81% -1.37 0.0654
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7169 27.97% 22.6 -0.957 68.46% -0.148 0.1161
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6272 32.55% 26.37 1.51 61.24% -0.286 0.0594
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7270 39.75% 29.24 3.366 61.36% -0.201 0.0901
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11361 42.79% 36.97 7.344 64.17% -0.028 0.0882
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10172 51.96% 35.59 5.245 54.87% -0.623 0.0352
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 11235 52.5% 38.42 6.64 54.73% -0.592 0.0285
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 51197 58.35% 40.83 7.375 47.53% -1.026 0.021
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 40676 38.86% 22.34 -1.464 75.06% -0.224 0.0473
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 24840 40.38% 26.55 -0.023 75.23% -0.182 -0.0494
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 31609 47.84% 28.43 0.723 71.94% -0.334 -0.0684
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38827 55.81% 35.59 3.532 70.4% -0.346 -0.0194
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 26428 64.9% 34.58 1.941 61.38% -0.796 -0.0316
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 12384 66.02% 34.33 1.099 52.21% -1.217 -0.0548
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 87462 64.57% 38.34 3.166 55.23% -1.046 0.0058
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 14709 32.95% 25.14 -0.404 77.87% -0.177 0.0346
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10138 44.38% 27.07 -0.54 63.28% -0.746 -0.0303
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11559 43.99% 33.26 2.82 70.61% -0.298 -0.0657
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 14071 57.44% 35.01 2.669 56.04% -0.9 0.0096
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11190 55.83% 39.7 2.192 58.71% -1.311 -0.1
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7594 63.43% 40.44 3.678 44.52% -1.618 -0.0017
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 56339 67.9% 43.75 5.468 40.22% -1.618 -0.0104

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 24197 40.12% 26.26 59.78% -0.182 0.0327 -0.847
Dahan Insurrection 4 23382 27.0% 48.32 70.61% 0.433 0.1448 0.565
Despicable Theft 2 4100 37.72% 26.67 60.37% -0.767 -0.0569 -0.416
Elemental Invocation 1 5706 45.76% 23.94 54.8% -0.689 0.0121 -1.466
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 79569 21.35% 42.82 71.34% 0.517 -0.083 0.463
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8630 47.64% 26.34 59.03% -0.97 -0.1327 -0.599
Rituals of Terror 3 9039 44.85% 30.79 58.73% -0.421 -0.361 -0.535
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5434 64.69% 28.36 54.69% -1.108 -0.1213 -0.846
Second Wave 0 72946 41.04% 27.33 71.99% 0.01 0.26 -0.231
The Great River 3 5433 45.22% 25.53 47.69% -0.978 0.0875 -1.586
Varied Terrains 2 3044 43.41% 21.77 47.7% -0.91 -0.0805 -1.671
Ward the Shores 2 8905 46.79% 27.29 54.4% -0.958 0.2259 -1.003

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 85638 29.63 49.93% -0.127 -0.0555 -0.464
Aid From Lesser Spirits 62273 32.17 54.13% 0.055 -0.0159 -0.154
All Things Weaken 57082 29.21 47.22% -0.28 -0.0212 -0.504
Attenuated Essence 11906 28.22 46.22% -0.038 -0.0735 -0.535
Back Against the Wall 59429 30.42 51.39% -0.141 -0.0871 -0.258
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12040 27.0 43.16% -0.178 -0.0321 -0.66
Burn Brightest Before the End 7480 29.64 46.56% 0.007 0.0231 -0.459
Disintegrating Ecosystem 82037 26.6 46.26% -0.247 -0.0589 -0.626
Downward Spiral 211606 23.03 53.08% -0.092 -0.0181 -0.336
Erosion of Will 84799 28.6 47.46% -0.235 -0.0801 -0.602
Intensifying Exploitation 12092 25.78 41.94% -0.235 -0.099 -0.658
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20605 35.32 75.38% 0.494 -0.1199 0.229
Memory Fades to Dust 212949 22.52 49.36% -0.248 -0.0443 -0.471
Power Corrodes the Spirit 56153 29.08 50.07% -0.202 -0.0269 -0.523
Promising Farmlands 81823 27.43 46.6% -0.278 -0.0797 -0.65
Shattered Fragments of Power 7375 29.48 45.74% -0.021 -0.018 -0.499
Slow Dissolution of Will 11804 26.09 38.51% -0.343 -0.0445 -0.829
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13463 35.73 78.82% 0.669 -0.0277 0.452
The Border of Life and Death 2991 30.36 62.69% 0.491 -0.0071 -0.136
Thriving Communities 55607 28.15 47.53% -0.213 -0.0566 -0.537
Thriving Crops 5064 27.87 53.46% 0.284 -0.0279 -0.401
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.606
Unnatural Proliferation 58225 30.49 48.46% -0.158 -0.0494 -0.453
Untended Land Crumbles 56037 28.54 48.32% -0.217 -0.0352 -0.569

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 513913 46.73% 25.7 62.69% -0.167 0.8079 -0.153
B 516424 46.11% 27.76 64.93% -0.065 0.8246 -0.002
C 660245 45.1% 28.13 68.22% 0.184 0.8764 0.105
D 475865 45.94% 26.71 64.8% -0.072 0.8228 -0.1
E 240764 44.55% 32.1 65.74% 0.104 0.8337 0.086
F 261759 44.39% 30.55 66.68% -0.039 0.7925 -0.017
G 224747 45.39% 29.88 66.32% 0.001 0.7801 -0.022
H 235923 42.79% 31.24 68.54% 0.04 0.823 0.087

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 287151 0.0% 16.41 60.29% -0.61 0.0575 -1.056
Not Using Events or Tokens 720312 44.41% 19.25 63.41% -0.333 0.0882 -0.505
Skip Initial Invader Actions 76158 15.22% 36.81 84.28% 0.643 -0.1266 -0.007
Start of Game Growth 113477 18.38% 36.51 82.65% 0.565 0.1269 0.396
Unlimited Undo 291828 37.8% 31.83 73.51% 0.207 0.1411 0.675
Using Tokens but Not Events 310169 32.25% 26.97 74.68% -0.025 -0.0678 -0.326

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 689693 13.76 18.92%
II 1231830 30.19 68.82%
III 841759 34.82 85.15%
IV 365947 38.63 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 706183
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 823887
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 360318
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 315275
Lose: Invader deck ran out 46378
Lose: Adversary condition 175933
Win: Sacrifice victory 14389
Lose: Scenario condition 15222
Win: Scenario condition 24650
Lose: Blight pool ran out 492373
Lose: Spirit destroyed 24491

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)