Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6734 38.23% 28.59 -0.501 83.86% -0.321 -0.0398
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4384 44.51% 32.79 1.583 80.45% -0.45 -0.0599
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5648 59.28% 36.47 3.651 70.59% -0.858 0.0122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7018 64.3% 36.81 3.766 63.74% -1.231 0.0261
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4543 79.11% 39.26 5.308 53.62% -1.434 0.0947
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2060 83.06% 36.97 4.225 40.49% -1.956 0.0706
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 16128 78.81% 40.63 5.823 41.8% -2.058 0.0124
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 41144 39.29% 24.21 -1.723 83.06% -0.085 -0.0473
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26487 42.72% 28.57 0.415 82.64% -0.021 -0.0517
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 32632 47.16% 36.98 4.523 82.23% -0.067 -0.0622
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 35337 54.26% 41.9 6.997 76.93% -0.373 -0.0812
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 34109 48.0% 46.01 8.815 79.34% -0.41 -0.0489
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 20289 58.51% 49.0 10.498 69.02% -0.881 -0.053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 58274 72.78% 46.8 9.538 56.97% -1.254 -0.0093
The Kingdom of England 0 1 29694 38.55% 24.05 -1.912 80.63% -0.33 0.0011
The Kingdom of England 1 3 15857 44.33% 31.7 1.884 76.37% -0.506 -0.0055
The Kingdom of England 2 4 25006 49.91% 32.6 2.131 70.34% -0.897 0.0727
The Kingdom of England 3 6 23442 64.61% 34.54 3.331 55.21% -1.469 0.1097
The Kingdom of England 4 7 24618 55.69% 41.2 6.169 61.71% -1.441 0.0599
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10025 66.91% 41.19 6.35 46.55% -2.023 0.0472
The Kingdom of England 6 11 58733 60.88% 45.12 7.903 45.46% -2.252 -0.0007
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 18119 44.26% 27.72 -0.562 77.05% -0.573 -0.0475
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9747 58.28% 28.25 -0.084 65.26% -0.97 -0.0769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19206 45.77% 33.04 2.072 51.1% -2.169 -0.0398
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 20245 55.98% 37.73 4.289 46.78% -2.252 -0.0659
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13248 51.63% 42.77 6.775 50.74% -2.183 -0.0412
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6082 56.16% 48.26 9.438 54.19% -1.87 -0.0473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 48161 55.53% 49.92 10.275 49.67% -2.162 -0.0462
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 21931 40.17% 23.68 -2.039 82.23% -0.119 -0.0301
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12354 42.15% 28.74 0.399 82.2% -0.044 -0.0246
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 14868 49.99% 30.63 1.312 78.24% -0.263 -0.0397
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19446 57.9% 38.43 5.155 76.56% -0.326 -0.0401
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12888 67.14% 37.46 4.721 66.57% -0.797 -0.03
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 5918 70.27% 37.7 4.867 56.4% -1.255 -0.0948
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 36949 68.78% 41.69 6.677 60.32% -1.166 -0.0332
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4589 32.9% 26.19 -1.987 89.13% 0.047 -0.0726
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2825 48.16% 31.5 0.759 75.43% -0.788 -0.0693
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3597 44.76% 36.92 3.438 79.76% -0.577 -0.1351
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4649 59.24% 39.65 4.882 64.51% -1.311 -0.0606
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 3691 58.82% 45.22 7.628 68.36% -1.118 0.0055
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2243 69.96% 46.26 8.134 50.78% -1.916 0.131
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16408 71.96% 52.28 11.097 49.46% -1.926 0.0081

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 13373 46.58% 26.64 -1.939 67.18% -0.591 -0.0098
Dahan Insurrection 4 13031 31.53% 50.32 9.52 73.92% -0.508 -0.1049
Despicable Theft 2 428 42.76% 33.75 1.813 80.84% -0.239 0.1105
Elemental Invocation 1 1095 49.04% 29.62 -0.778 76.07% -0.228 0.1446
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 48022 21.48% 43.39 4.704 74.62% -0.269 0.0954
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5564 55.49% 30.24 0.109 68.22% -0.452 -0.0112
Rituals of Terror 3 5286 50.03% 35.38 3.223 66.69% -0.762 -0.1272
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3567 73.38% 31.86 1.264 60.33% -0.69 -0.0497
Second Wave 0 46822 44.79% 27.62 -1.244 73.4% -0.685 -0.2609
The Great River 3 1557 50.42% 31.79 0.77 63.97% -1.316 0.1055
Ward the Shores 2 5780 52.11% 30.93 0.3 61.47% -1.007 0.0344

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 44919 29.91 -2.369 51.33% -2.194 -0.1232
Aid From Lesser Spirits 32847 31.91 -1.357 54.81% -2.037 -0.1154
All Things Weaken 19134 30.49 -2.363 49.8% -2.272 -0.1184
Back Against the Wall 30750 30.1 -2.162 51.82% -2.205 -0.1085
Disintegrating Ecosystem 42261 26.98 -3.841 47.92% -2.356 -0.1305
Downward Spiral 113768 24.0 -3.541 56.54% -2.122 -0.103
Erosion of Will 44046 28.88 -2.876 48.83% -2.321 -0.111
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6779 37.85 1.471 81.09% -0.709 -0.0154
Memory Fades to Dust 114695 23.39 -3.849 52.27% -2.321 -0.1054
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18695 30.5 -2.309 53.37% -2.114 -0.097
Promising Farmlands 42275 27.89 -3.405 48.18% -2.333 -0.1199
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4408 38.05 1.645 84.91% -0.484 -0.054
Thriving Communities 18352 29.65 -2.743 51.34% -2.195 -0.0989
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.457 48.73% -2.316 -0.0942
Unnatural Proliferation 19529 31.29 -1.968 50.64% -2.23 -0.1439
Untended Land Crumbles 18660 29.85 -2.654 51.56% -2.192 -0.0957

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 242892 49.07% 28.14 -0.925 70.01% -0.193 -1.2948
B 248070 47.91% 29.88 -0.203 71.92% -0.072 -1.2683
C 314797 47.22% 30.26 0.403 75.32% 0.217 -1.2116
D 232831 47.74% 29.02 -0.436 72.1% -0.075 -1.2658
E 67860 48.09% 35.74 1.232 73.52% 0.108 -1.1913
F 100689 45.54% 33.53 0.582 74.66% 0.015 -1.2392
G 89093 46.88% 32.39 0.191 73.44% -0.027 -1.2696
H 94271 43.91% 33.84 0.723 75.84% 0.042 -1.2151

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 140541 0.0% 19.32 -4.11 70.74% -2.063 -0.0147
Not Using Events or Tokens 353910 47.26% 22.17 -3.035 73.22% -0.174 0.0467
Skip Initial Invader Actions 41127 14.66% 37.92 2.991 90.56% 0.638 -0.0668
Start of Game Growth 57309 16.74% 36.98 2.49 89.7% 0.501 0.0488
Unlimited Undo 139948 37.56% 33.93 1.435 81.87% 0.427 0.0104
Using Tokens but Not Events 140007 35.94% 29.04 -1.167 81.26% 0.032 -0.0193

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 214281 22.33 32.35%
II 594351 30.75 71.61%
III 405515 34.25 85.06%
IV 176356 37.47 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 49806
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 276654
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 320588
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 138778
Lose: Invader deck ran out 23850
Lose: Adversary condition 80290
Win: Sacrifice victory 7141
Lose: Scenario condition 8446
Win: Scenario condition 13169
Lose: Blight pool ran out 250024
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12458

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)