Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7799 38.02% 28.68 -0.5 83.87% -0.32 -0.0368
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5269 44.12% 32.75 1.54 80.34% -0.469 -0.0584
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6573 59.21% 36.43 3.607 70.55% -0.86 0.0161
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8096 64.85% 36.75 3.712 63.62% -1.222 0.024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5340 78.8% 39.47 5.359 54.04% -1.42 0.0818
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2460 81.63% 38.01 4.653 43.05% -1.877 0.0766
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 19225 78.81% 40.88 5.896 42.35% -2.031 0.0121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 45223 38.87% 24.29 -1.739 83.25% -0.085 -0.0433
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 29651 42.72% 28.55 0.353 82.64% -0.034 -0.0523
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 35793 47.24% 36.94 4.461 82.2% -0.077 -0.0641
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39060 54.35% 41.92 6.966 77.14% -0.365 -0.0774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 37849 48.25% 45.96 8.742 79.29% -0.417 -0.05
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 22283 57.7% 49.17 10.501 69.47% -0.885 -0.058
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64763 72.85% 46.94 9.557 57.32% -1.244 -0.0059
The Kingdom of England 0 1 33310 37.84% 24.19 -1.9 80.98% -0.331 0.0008
The Kingdom of England 1 3 17953 43.71% 31.77 1.867 76.52% -0.519 -0.0056
The Kingdom of England 2 4 27771 49.95% 32.63 2.11 70.47% -0.892 0.0761
The Kingdom of England 3 6 25845 64.5% 34.59 3.295 55.39% -1.472 0.107
The Kingdom of England 4 7 28184 54.68% 41.47 6.242 62.39% -1.444 0.0546
The Kingdom of England 5 9 11406 65.94% 41.38 6.37 46.96% -2.035 0.0383
The Kingdom of England 6 11 65558 61.28% 45.02 7.806 45.34% -2.253 -0.0049
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 19632 44.03% 27.83 -0.569 77.48% -0.558 -0.0444
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10726 58.22% 28.3 -0.119 65.52% -0.969 -0.0696
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20936 45.91% 32.99 2.003 50.96% -2.182 -0.0393
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22230 56.29% 37.64 4.192 46.55% -2.267 -0.0703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 14408 51.94% 42.53 6.623 50.19% -2.207 -0.0482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6607 56.07% 48.07 9.297 53.79% -1.9 -0.0826
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 55441 55.13% 50.29 10.411 50.44% -2.139 -0.0423
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 23973 40.01% 23.72 -2.077 82.46% -0.115 -0.0295
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13713 42.09% 28.71 0.339 82.25% -0.054 -0.0208
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16460 49.98% 30.62 1.244 78.27% -0.277 -0.042
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 21322 58.07% 38.43 5.117 76.62% -0.326 -0.0392
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14378 67.09% 37.46 4.653 66.57% -0.813 -0.0299
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6516 70.57% 37.65 4.794 56.4% -1.261 -0.0941
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 41571 68.99% 41.78 6.686 60.64% -1.155 -0.0311
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5609 33.33% 26.16 -2.013 88.98% 0.044 -0.0572
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3627 49.23% 31.0 0.547 73.89% -0.851 -0.0719
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4425 45.4% 36.85 3.418 79.8% -0.55 -0.1307
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5596 59.99% 39.39 4.767 63.99% -1.305 -0.0515
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4496 58.82% 45.14 7.562 68.15% -1.131 -0.0147
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2600 69.62% 46.34 8.164 51.08% -1.897 0.1017
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 20318 70.77% 53.1 11.443 51.18% -1.873 0.0059

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 14663 46.22% 26.88 -1.891 67.9% -0.576 -0.0064
Dahan Insurrection 4 14215 31.12% 50.3 9.489 74.24% -0.513 -0.115
Despicable Theft 2 852 44.25% 34.02 1.959 81.1% -0.119 0.1501
Elemental Invocation 1 1630 50.86% 29.72 -0.754 73.87% -0.293 0.1718
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 52349 21.62% 43.41 4.647 74.5% -0.281 0.0856
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6049 55.41% 30.23 0.07 68.19% -0.458 -0.0133
Rituals of Terror 3 5723 49.86% 35.25 3.142 66.63% -0.781 -0.1361
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3849 73.35% 31.79 1.184 60.35% -0.703 -0.0573
Second Wave 0 51073 44.63% 27.62 -1.273 73.53% -0.686 -0.2576
The Great River 3 1992 51.51% 31.23 0.552 61.45% -1.405 0.0586
Ward the Shores 2 6237 51.51% 31.0 0.321 62.29% -0.98 0.0541

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 49713 30.03 -2.363 51.53% -2.189 -0.1158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36487 32.08 -1.328 54.92% -2.029 -0.1114
All Things Weaken 23376 30.38 -2.449 49.54% -2.284 -0.1136
Back Against the Wall 34263 30.35 -2.108 52.06% -2.194 -0.1024
Disintegrating Ecosystem 46736 27.11 -3.833 48.09% -2.35 -0.1256
Downward Spiral 124143 24.06 -3.554 56.64% -2.122 -0.0994
Erosion of Will 48867 28.97 -2.882 48.97% -2.318 -0.1086
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8241 37.95 1.477 81.37% -0.691 -0.0044
Memory Fades to Dust 125345 23.47 -3.852 52.38% -2.321 -0.1018
Power Corrodes the Spirit 22808 30.56 -2.331 53.37% -2.116 -0.0921
Promising Farmlands 46820 27.98 -3.409 48.31% -2.331 -0.1171
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5456 38.27 1.709 85.28% -0.446 -0.0364
Thriving Communities 22426 29.75 -2.748 51.3% -2.194 -0.0995
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.481 48.73% -2.317 -0.0911
Unnatural Proliferation 23856 31.36 -1.976 50.75% -2.229 -0.1427
Untended Land Crumbles 22725 29.93 -2.665 51.6% -2.195 -0.0893

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 266624 49.12% 28.2 -0.947 70.08% -0.193 -0.9536
B 273171 47.92% 30.01 -0.207 72.03% -0.071 -0.9278
C 346163 47.16% 30.34 0.387 75.42% 0.218 -0.8709
D 255598 47.77% 29.12 -0.448 72.14% -0.076 -0.9258
E 82472 48.06% 35.78 1.22 73.61% 0.109 -0.8562
F 116689 45.64% 33.64 0.589 74.59% 0.015 -0.899
G 102379 46.91% 32.47 0.188 73.5% -0.025 -0.9303
H 108066 44.02% 33.88 0.702 75.8% 0.037 -0.8771

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 153355 0.0% 19.31 -4.142 70.79% -2.069 -0.0125
Not Using Events or Tokens 388268 46.91% 22.22 -3.031 73.39% -0.171 0.0449
Skip Initial Invader Actions 44589 14.85% 38.09 2.975 90.5% 0.617 -0.07
Start of Game Growth 62819 16.79% 37.25 2.553 89.74% 0.521 0.0507
Unlimited Undo 155179 37.77% 33.94 1.403 81.94% 0.435 0.0153
Using Tokens but Not Events 155367 35.19% 29.16 -1.163 81.62% 0.034 -0.0183

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 237103 22.35 32.11%
II 661832 30.84 71.56%
III 454274 34.35 85.22%
IV 197953 37.52 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 56598
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 318131
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 367329
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 160004
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26245
Lose: Adversary condition 90599
Win: Sacrifice victory 8181
Lose: Scenario condition 9275
Win: Scenario condition 14418
Lose: Blight pool ran out 277276
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13807

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)