Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 15792 37.29% 27.45 -0.089 76.06% -0.289 0.0941
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11304 40.31% 31.23 1.525 74.76% -0.304 -0.0564
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13600 55.15% 34.2 1.433 65.07% -0.939 -0.0404
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 15876 62.49% 34.26 1.906 57.92% -0.948 0.0021
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 11038 76.74% 36.4 1.161 48.84% -1.56 -0.1129
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5155 77.83% 35.63 1.635 41.24% -1.712 -0.1361
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 43770 73.83% 36.93 0.792 36.83% -2.151 -0.1136
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 69045 37.94% 23.28 -1.517 78.38% -0.189 0.0482
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 52791 40.97% 26.91 -0.503 77.76% -0.24 -0.1526
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 61484 45.72% 35.15 3.339 77.88% -0.121 0.0202
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 67302 52.07% 40.13 5.032 73.84% -0.288 -0.1011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 62241 48.33% 44.02 5.901 75.8% -0.414 -0.06
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 35690 57.11% 46.42 8.54 65.01% -0.54 -0.072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 114338 70.64% 43.33 3.844 52.37% -1.3 0.0402
The Kingdom of England 0 1 52694 37.09% 23.39 -1.239 76.2% -0.246 0.1272
The Kingdom of England 1 3 31537 40.46% 30.31 1.787 72.54% -0.224 0.114
The Kingdom of England 2 4 45039 49.86% 30.67 0.897 65.44% -0.64 0.0225
The Kingdom of England 3 6 44231 61.79% 32.73 1.63 51.8% -1.092 0.0342
The Kingdom of England 4 7 49760 50.59% 39.42 2.154 59.72% -1.387 -0.1574
The Kingdom of England 5 9 20457 59.17% 39.95 3.529 46.88% -1.65 -0.0387
The Kingdom of England 6 11 115912 59.84% 40.48 1.602 39.52% -2.04 -0.0251
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 29104 42.93% 27.04 -0.179 73.85% -0.305 0.1432
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 18218 54.72% 26.75 -0.374 61.49% -0.708 -0.0062
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 33273 44.57% 32.33 2.47 49.42% -1.081 -0.0773
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 34105 54.95% 36.29 3.579 44.77% -1.337 -0.0602
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22005 51.77% 40.47 3.675 47.02% -1.534 -0.1296
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 11170 54.57% 45.99 7.042 51.03% -1.077 -0.1341
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 100528 53.99% 48.27 7.605 47.74% -1.423 0.0119
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5135 27.01% 23.61 -0.777 71.7% -0.115 0.1191
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4545 33.16% 26.87 0.524 62.38% -0.549 -0.0689
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5159 40.45% 29.88 1.872 62.69% -0.572 -0.01
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7901 44.38% 37.8 5.163 65.4% -0.501 -0.0894
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7505 52.11% 36.7 5.535 56.48% -0.645 0.0357
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7862 54.12% 39.31 7.346 55.37% -0.499 0.0301
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 37796 59.76% 41.79 8.626 48.52% -1.04 0.0245
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 36808 39.23% 22.92 -1.74 77.33% -0.283 -0.0511
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 22403 41.06% 27.22 -0.071 77.31% -0.167 -0.1042
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 28278 48.52% 29.09 1.497 73.77% -0.023 0.1239
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 34647 56.65% 36.51 3.234 72.25% -0.391 -0.0276
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 23585 65.63% 35.61 2.953 63.17% -0.639 0.0022
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 11063 66.86% 35.45 1.928 53.9% -1.103 -0.134
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 77072 65.59% 39.52 3.536 56.9% -1.034 0.0207
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12637 33.87% 25.66 0.168 80.45% 0.091 0.1952
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8687 45.66% 28.04 -1.164 65.57% -0.9 -0.015
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10035 44.46% 34.29 1.526 72.95% -0.58 -0.0735
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 12180 58.52% 36.0 2.104 57.49% -1.099 -0.0312
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9623 56.13% 41.34 3.547 61.5% -1.149 -0.2152
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6509 64.69% 41.88 5.474 46.15% -1.384 0.0269
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 47941 69.38% 46.0 5.429 42.33% -1.792 -0.0555

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 21018 41.88% 26.71 62.23% -0.352 -0.0643 -0.875
Dahan Insurrection 4 19940 28.43% 49.37 71.81% 0.377 0.1998 0.498
Despicable Theft 2 3371 39.52% 28.16 63.9% -0.815 0.0456 -0.438
Elemental Invocation 1 4730 47.4% 25.12 57.93% -0.885 0.0478 -1.484
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 71086 21.92% 43.36 72.26% 0.613 -0.0334 0.374
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7661 49.21% 27.61 61.73% -1.085 -0.1387 -0.57
Rituals of Terror 3 7969 45.87% 31.7 60.38% -0.197 -0.1211 -0.619
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4864 66.79% 29.59 56.7% -1.127 -0.0114 -0.871
Second Wave 0 66056 41.72% 27.52 72.76% 0.155 0.185 -0.361
The Great River 3 4654 47.55% 26.99 50.19% -1.304 0.1214 -1.588
Varied Terrains 2 2176 43.03% 23.42 51.98% -0.835 -0.0602 -1.818
Ward the Shores 2 7943 47.89% 28.45 56.46% -0.941 0.1032 -1.001

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 78786 29.88 50.34% -0.255 -0.0794 -0.597
Aid From Lesser Spirits 57731 32.31 54.36% -0.046 -0.0998 -0.293
All Things Weaken 50400 29.69 47.94% -0.374 -0.0804 -0.638
Attenuated Essence 7104 28.73 46.47% -0.193 -0.1094 -0.701
Back Against the Wall 54979 30.59 51.68% -0.197 -0.1499 -0.396
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 7064 27.51 43.09% -0.375 -0.1717 -0.807
Burn Brightest Before the End 4606 30.12 46.37% -0.334 -0.1466 -0.628
Disintegrating Ecosystem 75038 26.87 46.66% -0.508 -0.099 -0.763
Downward Spiral 191783 23.44 54.03% -0.179 -0.051 -0.465
Erosion of Will 77894 28.82 47.81% -0.397 -0.1139 -0.746
Intensifying Exploitation 7250 26.64 42.29% -0.33 -0.0824 -0.799
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18089 36.22 77.24% 0.404 -0.112 0.155
Memory Fades to Dust 193257 22.9 50.2% -0.314 -0.077 -0.601
Power Corrodes the Spirit 49348 29.67 50.95% -0.336 -0.1178 -0.638
Promising Farmlands 74999 27.76 47.15% -0.401 -0.1061 -0.771
Shattered Fragments of Power 4582 30.14 45.5% -0.4 -0.1991 -0.657
Slow Dissolution of Will 7073 26.65 38.8% -0.495 -0.1103 -0.972
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11820 36.72 80.58% 0.473 -0.1075 0.382
The Border of Life and Death 1823 31.15 63.52% 0.532 0.0152 -0.218
Thriving Communities 48808 28.69 48.34% -0.533 -0.1937 -0.664
Thriving Crops 3063 28.33 52.95% -0.042 -0.0845 -0.525
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.749
Unnatural Proliferation 51508 30.91 49.06% -0.238 -0.0974 -0.59
Untended Land Crumbles 49320 29.02 49.05% -0.49 -0.0412 -0.71

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 452185 47.48% 26.54 64.83% -0.124 0.7375 -0.162
B 457410 46.77% 28.55 66.93% -0.041 0.7758 -0.01
C 583888 45.76% 28.92 70.3% 0.135 0.8141 0.103
D 420581 46.5% 27.55 67.02% -0.031 0.7738 -0.082
E 202065 45.47% 33.25 67.82% 0.142 0.8101 0.093
F 225868 45.03% 31.5 68.83% -0.035 0.7634 -0.014
G 196075 46.0% 30.73 68.21% -0.111 0.7147 -0.031
H 205192 43.29% 32.07 70.55% 0.053 0.8258 0.088

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250875 0.0% 17.23 63.31% -0.772 0.0235 -1.259
Not Using Events or Tokens 634108 44.97% 20.11 66.33% -0.311 0.0764 -0.461
Skip Initial Invader Actions 68441 15.23% 37.14 86.14% 0.399 -0.2152 -0.013
Start of Game Growth 100316 18.22% 36.9 84.82% 0.586 0.0048 0.381
Unlimited Undo 259364 38.24% 32.67 75.82% 0.008 0.0514 0.684
Using Tokens but Not Events 269111 33.02% 27.71 76.8% -0.017 -0.0753 -0.257

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 549233 15.74 21.59%
II 1104801 30.48 69.55%
III 757342 34.79 85.21%
IV 331478 38.41 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118226
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 635599
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 746952
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 326260
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 193341
Lose: Invader deck ran out 42425
Lose: Adversary condition 159274
Win: Sacrifice victory 13283
Lose: Scenario condition 14196
Win: Scenario condition 22102
Lose: Blight pool ran out 448673
Lose: Spirit destroyed 22523

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)