Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 15366 37.43% 27.61 -0.515 76.61% -0.41 0.0347
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10909 40.49% 31.45 1.237 75.36% -0.371 -0.0633
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13186 55.58% 34.45 1.828 65.58% -0.82 -0.0449
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 15426 62.76% 34.47 1.826 58.32% -0.97 -0.0023
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 10710 76.91% 36.66 1.406 49.23% -1.475 -0.0489
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5020 78.11% 35.9 2.771 41.59% -1.442 -0.0059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 42440 74.04% 37.26 0.362 37.22% -2.182 -0.0854
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 67731 38.07% 23.4 -1.356 78.84% -0.16 0.0796
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 51322 41.19% 27.11 -0.514 78.33% -0.27 -0.1549
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 59791 45.87% 35.37 3.207 78.4% -0.157 -0.0488
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 65440 52.37% 40.38 5.388 74.29% -0.253 -0.03
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 60729 48.37% 44.29 6.093 76.27% -0.337 -0.0486
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 34916 57.24% 46.63 7.553 65.31% -0.644 -0.05
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 111383 70.83% 43.63 2.357 52.7% -1.505 -0.0191
The Kingdom of England 0 1 51671 37.14% 23.5 -1.163 76.64% -0.258 0.0696
The Kingdom of England 1 3 30714 40.6% 30.46 1.337 72.98% -0.283 0.0205
The Kingdom of England 2 4 43746 49.83% 30.87 0.658 66.01% -0.686 0.0423
The Kingdom of England 3 6 43159 62.09% 32.91 1.44 52.07% -1.134 0.0605
The Kingdom of England 4 7 48301 51.01% 39.74 2.477 60.21% -1.323 -0.1051
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19952 59.46% 40.18 3.519 47.16% -1.622 0.05
The Kingdom of England 6 11 113238 59.99% 40.82 1.603 39.89% -2.077 -0.0169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 28603 43.02% 27.14 -0.428 74.13% -0.411 0.1435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 17761 55.13% 26.86 -0.431 61.77% -0.683 -0.001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 32586 44.69% 32.44 2.403 49.61% -1.141 -0.0394
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 33411 55.1% 36.43 3.239 44.94% -1.415 -0.0236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 21519 52.02% 40.68 3.988 47.25% -1.529 -0.0625
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10955 54.76% 46.14 7.737 51.15% -1.149 -0.0779
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 98208 54.09% 48.52 8.115 48.02% -1.446 -0.026
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4738 27.27% 23.92 -1.224 72.6% -0.232 0.0137
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4155 33.57% 27.1 -0.466 62.98% -0.741 -0.1109
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4722 40.63% 30.09 1.632 63.09% -0.595 -0.133
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7288 44.76% 38.19 5.425 66.11% -0.484 -0.0189
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6898 52.55% 36.93 5.346 56.83% -0.667 0.1337
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7035 54.44% 39.6 7.172 55.59% -0.598 -0.0337
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 34075 60.92% 41.97 8.481 48.77% -0.971 -0.004
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 36040 39.39% 23.05 -1.222 77.87% -0.141 0.0635
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 21876 41.13% 27.39 0.006 77.83% -0.113 -0.077
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 27617 48.6% 29.21 0.655 74.06% -0.289 -0.0746
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 33805 56.88% 36.72 3.685 72.69% -0.333 0.0267
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 22951 65.82% 35.86 3.008 63.57% -0.657 0.0415
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10798 67.1% 35.74 3.139 54.33% -0.86 -0.0636
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 75243 65.66% 39.74 2.426 57.24% -1.168 -0.0614
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12224 34.08% 25.78 0.129 81.02% 0.062 0.2326
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 8316 45.93% 28.41 -1.063 66.56% -0.81 0.0297
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 9709 44.62% 34.56 2.728 73.5% -0.341 -0.1219
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11796 58.72% 36.27 2.106 57.93% -1.095 0.0007
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9272 56.51% 41.69 3.719 62.03% -1.067 -0.0908
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6300 65.19% 42.06 4.655 46.25% -1.592 0.0754
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 46424 69.52% 46.33 4.833 42.71% -1.792 -0.1235

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 20450 42.14% 26.78 62.74% -0.258 -0.0572 -0.901
Dahan Insurrection 4 19245 28.46% 49.53 72.31% 0.38 0.1685 0.489
Despicable Theft 2 3227 39.89% 28.58 64.89% -0.728 0.1163 -0.481
Elemental Invocation 1 4536 48.11% 25.44 58.8% -1.203 -0.1319 -1.473
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 69248 22.11% 43.5 72.4% 0.722 -0.0031 0.348
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7472 49.53% 27.9 62.41% -0.968 -0.0616 -0.551
Rituals of Terror 3 7730 46.32% 31.95 60.71% -0.35 -0.3197 -0.612
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4752 67.12% 29.84 57.18% -1.11 0.0787 -0.848
Second Wave 0 64808 41.88% 27.58 72.87% 0.083 0.1639 -0.372
The Great River 3 4474 48.41% 27.51 51.14% -1.342 0.0453 -1.53
Varied Terrains 2 2015 42.85% 23.65 52.7% -0.913 -0.0117 -1.881
Ward the Shores 2 7751 48.04% 28.69 56.96% -1.075 -0.0194 -1.001

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 77403 29.93 50.46% -0.184 -0.0449 -0.625
Aid From Lesser Spirits 56846 32.35 54.43% -0.045 -0.1039 -0.322
All Things Weaken 49061 29.8 48.08% -0.444 -0.089 -0.671
Attenuated Essence 6143 28.91 46.31% -0.151 -0.0401 -0.745
Back Against the Wall 54056 30.63 51.75% -0.143 -0.0669 -0.428
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6159 27.76 43.22% -0.295 -0.0847 -0.825
Burn Brightest Before the End 4022 30.49 46.94% -0.165 -0.0442 -0.649
Disintegrating Ecosystem 73642 26.95 46.81% -0.457 -0.088 -0.796
Downward Spiral 188012 23.53 54.21% -0.234 -0.0376 -0.493
Erosion of Will 76525 28.87 47.92% -0.338 -0.0707 -0.779
Intensifying Exploitation 6270 26.78 42.23% -0.347 -0.077 -0.851
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17592 36.41 77.72% 0.5 -0.0113 0.141
Memory Fades to Dust 189510 22.98 50.37% -0.36 -0.0486 -0.632
Power Corrodes the Spirit 48074 29.77 51.12% -0.397 -0.1025 -0.669
Promising Farmlands 73581 27.81 47.26% -0.42 -0.0839 -0.805
Shattered Fragments of Power 3986 30.56 46.21% -0.193 -0.0846 -0.69
Slow Dissolution of Will 6182 26.69 38.81% -0.471 -0.0709 -1.009
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11533 36.86 80.92% 0.486 -0.1268 0.361
The Border of Life and Death 1569 31.23 62.91% 0.256 -0.0364 -0.248
Thriving Communities 47532 28.83 48.59% -0.443 -0.1098 -0.689
Thriving Crops 2655 28.72 53.41% -0.02 -0.1063 -0.52
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -0.781
Unnatural Proliferation 50233 30.97 49.16% -0.295 -0.1469 -0.622
Untended Land Crumbles 47979 29.16 49.34% -0.349 -0.0423 -0.737

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 439717 47.64% 26.72 65.3% -0.158 0.7465 -0.161
B 445797 46.89% 28.72 67.39% -0.044 0.7846 -0.013
C 569235 45.9% 29.08 70.77% 0.149 0.8288 0.102
D 410679 46.63% 27.72 67.44% -0.08 0.773 -0.089
E 194713 45.71% 33.51 68.27% 0.126 0.8268 0.085
F 218976 45.21% 31.71 69.31% -0.033 0.7485 -0.018
G 190103 46.23% 30.93 68.81% -0.01 0.7621 -0.008
H 199159 43.41% 32.26 71.02% 0.035 0.8038 0.087

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 244510 0.0% 17.41 63.94% -0.749 0.0815 -1.303
Not Using Events or Tokens 618037 45.11% 20.3 66.94% -0.417 0.0241 -0.451
Skip Initial Invader Actions 67113 15.21% 37.18 86.55% 0.382 -0.1797 -0.035
Start of Game Growth 98147 18.18% 36.99 85.26% 0.541 0.0027 0.407
Unlimited Undo 252929 38.27% 32.88 76.43% 0.07 0.1114 0.685
Using Tokens but Not Events 261390 33.23% 27.88 77.33% -0.019 -0.0426 -0.241

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 522129 16.23 22.25%
II 1079967 30.54 69.71%
III 740956 34.77 85.23%
IV 324917 38.37 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 115801
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 621873
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 731897
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 319767
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 170588
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41536
Lose: Adversary condition 155971
Win: Sacrifice victory 13079
Lose: Scenario condition 14035
Win: Scenario condition 21630
Lose: Blight pool ran out 440066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 21726

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)