Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7379 38.21% 28.65 -0.495 83.79% -0.323 -0.0452
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4840 43.95% 32.87 1.59 80.58% -0.458 -0.0641
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6111 59.09% 36.45 3.618 70.53% -0.869 0.0092
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7582 64.46% 36.75 3.718 63.56% -1.236 0.0156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4917 78.95% 39.38 5.335 53.87% -1.427 0.0946
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2249 83.06% 37.51 4.444 41.84% -1.899 0.0781
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17798 78.54% 40.93 5.926 42.46% -2.035 0.0149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 43617 38.98% 24.28 -1.729 83.23% -0.084 -0.043
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 27987 42.7% 28.58 0.393 82.68% -0.023 -0.0522
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 34235 47.1% 37.01 4.507 82.34% -0.065 -0.06
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 37173 54.17% 41.93 6.989 77.13% -0.367 -0.0779
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 35986 48.0% 45.99 8.77 79.32% -0.419 -0.0513
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 21354 58.12% 49.08 10.488 69.25% -0.884 -0.0548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 61861 72.81% 46.89 9.549 57.19% -1.25 -0.0084
The Kingdom of England 0 1 31867 38.03% 24.16 -1.899 80.89% -0.333 -0.0
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16861 43.9% 31.79 1.899 76.6% -0.506 -0.0025
The Kingdom of England 2 4 26409 49.77% 32.67 2.145 70.57% -0.889 0.0792
The Kingdom of England 3 6 24624 64.52% 34.57 3.308 55.3% -1.472 0.1058
The Kingdom of England 4 7 26329 55.2% 41.36 6.215 62.14% -1.44 0.0583
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10730 66.33% 41.35 6.388 46.92% -2.023 0.0443
The Kingdom of England 6 11 62267 61.05% 45.06 7.848 45.4% -2.255 -0.0005
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 18993 44.02% 27.82 -0.553 77.43% -0.56 -0.0451
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10232 58.14% 28.31 -0.094 65.46% -0.968 -0.0725
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20045 45.79% 33.03 2.035 51.07% -2.178 -0.0412
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 21169 56.11% 37.77 4.276 46.92% -2.25 -0.0645
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13829 51.78% 42.73 6.735 50.67% -2.187 -0.0402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6361 56.16% 48.17 9.366 54.03% -1.885 -0.0653
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 51870 55.24% 50.11 10.343 50.07% -2.153 -0.046
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 23101 40.02% 23.71 -2.054 82.42% -0.115 -0.0302
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12973 42.06% 28.75 0.38 82.28% -0.046 -0.0254
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15643 49.96% 30.62 1.273 78.23% -0.272 -0.0402
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 20353 58.01% 38.44 5.135 76.61% -0.326 -0.04
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 13609 67.05% 37.45 4.67 66.54% -0.811 -0.0337
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6221 70.26% 37.77 4.863 56.63% -1.251 -0.0944
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 39380 68.83% 41.75 6.682 60.51% -1.162 -0.0308
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5200 33.03% 26.18 -2.005 89.0% 0.036 -0.0699
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3229 48.6% 31.27 0.651 74.64% -0.825 -0.0815
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3999 45.06% 36.9 3.423 79.74% -0.567 -0.1352
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5110 59.43% 39.62 4.859 64.5% -1.302 -0.0525
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4097 58.48% 45.21 7.593 68.32% -1.13 -0.0029
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2449 69.83% 46.33 8.151 51.0% -1.905 0.1133
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 18435 71.48% 52.67 11.246 50.3% -1.903 0.0027

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 14010 46.38% 26.76 -1.907 67.69% -0.575 -0.0022
Dahan Insurrection 4 13587 31.11% 50.35 9.515 74.24% -0.51 -0.1099
Despicable Theft 2 692 43.21% 34.1 1.991 81.65% -0.137 0.1457
Elemental Invocation 1 1420 50.42% 29.7 -0.789 74.01% -0.298 0.1413
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 50223 21.58% 43.39 4.666 74.52% -0.279 0.0866
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5803 55.35% 30.3 0.108 68.33% -0.455 -0.0135
Rituals of Terror 3 5526 49.73% 35.29 3.171 66.72% -0.776 -0.1318
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3724 73.42% 31.84 1.225 60.34% -0.696 -0.054
Second Wave 0 49327 44.66% 27.61 -1.269 73.5% -0.689 -0.2612
The Great River 3 1818 51.1% 31.48 0.634 62.27% -1.375 0.0844
Ward the Shores 2 6017 51.71% 31.0 0.318 61.97% -0.995 0.0419

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 47276 29.99 -2.363 51.45% -2.192 -0.1184
Aid From Lesser Spirits 34662 32.05 -1.328 54.95% -2.031 -0.1118
All Things Weaken 21233 30.47 -2.399 49.77% -2.276 -0.1173
Back Against the Wall 32548 30.26 -2.125 51.99% -2.199 -0.1047
Disintegrating Ecosystem 44499 27.08 -3.83 48.04% -2.353 -0.1287
Downward Spiral 119067 24.04 -3.549 56.63% -2.123 -0.1024
Erosion of Will 46467 28.95 -2.874 48.96% -2.319 -0.1103
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7522 37.84 1.44 81.22% -0.706 -0.0136
Memory Fades to Dust 120198 23.44 -3.855 52.37% -2.322 -0.1038
Power Corrodes the Spirit 20814 30.55 -2.322 53.38% -2.115 -0.0942
Promising Farmlands 44616 27.95 -3.406 48.3% -2.332 -0.1179
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4945 38.22 1.708 85.44% -0.442 -0.0305
Thriving Communities 20410 29.79 -2.722 51.43% -2.192 -0.0987
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 -3.474 48.73% -2.319 -0.0931
Unnatural Proliferation 21756 31.32 -1.987 50.73% -2.235 -0.1454
Untended Land Crumbles 20704 29.9 -2.673 51.52% -2.199 -0.0929

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 255067 49.05% 28.18 -0.936 70.1% -0.192 -1.3047
B 261319 47.88% 29.97 -0.202 72.01% -0.071 -1.2794
C 330960 47.15% 30.29 0.387 75.4% 0.217 -1.2225
D 244736 47.7% 29.09 -0.441 72.18% -0.075 -1.2767
E 75446 47.95% 35.76 1.219 73.63% 0.106 -1.2065
F 108883 45.53% 33.6 0.585 74.68% 0.016 -1.2493
G 95925 46.84% 32.47 0.199 73.55% -0.023 -1.2803
H 101363 43.92% 33.88 0.714 75.83% 0.038 -1.2283

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 147230 0.0% 19.31 -4.134 70.77% -2.069 -0.0143
Not Using Events or Tokens 371805 47.06% 22.2 -3.032 73.33% -0.172 0.0455
Skip Initial Invader Actions 43001 14.86% 38.05 2.986 90.52% 0.626 -0.0678
Start of Game Growth 60152 16.79% 37.18 2.53 89.74% 0.512 0.0486
Unlimited Undo 147893 37.58% 33.99 1.437 81.98% 0.435 0.0148
Using Tokens but Not Events 148322 35.44% 29.15 -1.152 81.51% 0.035 -0.0177

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 225850 22.34 32.3%
II 629315 30.81 71.63%
III 431034 34.31 85.17%
IV 187500 37.5 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 53411
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 298465
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 345095
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 149745
Lose: Invader deck ran out 25125
Lose: Adversary condition 85400
Win: Sacrifice victory 7642
Lose: Scenario condition 8887
Win: Scenario condition 13796
Lose: Blight pool ran out 263692
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13142

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)