Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 11259 39.0% 29.16 -0.217 81.99% -0.584 -0.0708
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7919 43.37% 33.18 1.829 79.87% -0.398 0.0718
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9580 58.99% 36.56 3.339 70.07% -0.939 0.0381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11121 65.04% 36.67 3.145 62.73% -1.321 0.001
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7694 79.85% 39.22 3.541 52.82% -1.853 -0.1323
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3415 82.23% 38.84 7.641 44.39% -1.222 0.1542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29747 77.46% 40.79 5.29 41.07% -2.327 -0.1525
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 54826 39.17% 24.45 -1.871 82.95% -0.184 -0.0078
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 38804 42.76% 28.69 0.166 83.06% 0.209 -0.066
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 46833 47.19% 37.0 3.233 82.19% -0.398 -0.1489
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 51022 53.87% 42.15 6.501 77.61% -0.495 -0.0275
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48844 48.93% 45.85 7.776 79.02% -0.567 -0.0752
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 27234 58.46% 48.85 7.186 68.5% -1.476 -0.1556
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 85945 72.95% 46.89 7.409 56.71% -1.594 -0.0995
The Kingdom of England 0 1 41540 37.8% 24.53 -1.889 80.87% -0.495 -0.0021
The Kingdom of England 1 3 23746 42.44% 31.97 1.751 76.69% -0.667 0.0827
The Kingdom of England 2 4 34758 50.84% 32.45 0.87 69.76% -1.131 0.0048
The Kingdom of England 3 6 33466 64.59% 34.76 3.036 54.97% -1.522 0.1662
The Kingdom of England 4 7 37677 53.16% 42.14 6.129 63.87% -1.598 -0.039
The Kingdom of England 5 9 15014 62.88% 42.5 7.077 49.43% -2.198 -0.1068
The Kingdom of England 6 11 85321 61.88% 44.83 5.585 44.32% -2.786 -0.2485
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 23876 43.92% 28.0 -0.813 76.97% -0.873 -0.132
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13850 58.11% 28.44 -0.56 65.65% -1.135 -0.2198
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 26550 45.89% 33.17 1.281 50.94% -2.415 -0.1056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 27423 56.54% 37.73 3.144 46.49% -2.453 -0.1678
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17724 52.88% 42.13 5.125 48.91% -2.402 -0.0138
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8428 56.79% 47.16 7.292 51.53% -2.322 -0.4049
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 75565 55.56% 50.45 9.626 49.97% -2.311 -0.1558
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1229 30.42% 28.93 -1.208 88.12% -0.143 -0.0123
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1032 37.9% 33.0 0.855 77.81% -1.008 -0.0429
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1154 43.91% 34.82 1.696 74.35% -1.108 -0.103
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1755 50.4% 42.65 5.727 74.99% -0.907 -0.0539
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1801 58.17% 41.74 4.68 64.3% -1.444 -0.0956
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1320 63.86% 44.45 7.176 59.39% -1.326 -0.0833
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7608 67.45% 49.79 9.666 55.81% -1.593 -0.1187
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 29322 40.07% 24.04 -1.515 82.04% -0.25 -0.0495
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 17272 42.35% 28.75 0.208 82.03% 0.126 0.2774
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 21519 50.18% 30.63 0.742 78.06% -0.33 0.0099
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 26904 58.38% 38.45 4.261 76.33% -0.45 -0.0946
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 18369 67.43% 37.49 3.731 66.54% -0.987 -0.2121
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8249 71.14% 37.84 5.949 57.17% -0.936 -0.1767
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 56222 68.7% 42.34 6.041 60.76% -1.259 -0.0923
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8660 34.98% 26.99 -0.73 87.12% -0.015 -0.2943
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5697 49.0% 31.14 0.56 73.23% -0.879 0.0721
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6938 47.2% 36.84 3.368 78.78% -0.458 -0.1185
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8292 61.38% 39.33 5.121 63.21% -1.171 -0.1703
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6659 58.56% 45.12 6.649 67.46% -1.221 -0.0258
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4176 68.56% 46.64 8.858 51.03% -1.744 0.1373
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 31173 72.51% 52.24 10.099 48.87% -1.995 -0.1762

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 15062 45.87% 27.74 67.97% -0.387 -0.1306 -1.097
Dahan Insurrection 4 13742 30.08% 51.04 75.12% 0.017 0.319 0.246
Despicable Theft 2 1849 46.27% 33.37 76.47% -0.633 -0.0878 -0.206
Elemental Invocation 1 2798 51.47% 29.32 72.02% -0.623 -0.0119 -0.878
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53757 22.24% 44.24 74.08% -0.202 -0.0077 0.04
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5702 54.17% 30.91 68.73% -0.405 -0.1592 -0.546
Rituals of Terror 3 5648 50.95% 35.56 66.66% -0.486 -1.3226 -0.601
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3630 71.51% 32.96 62.29% -0.616 -0.091 -0.795
Second Wave 0 51207 42.8% 28.29 74.77% -0.743 -0.1705 -0.54
The Great River 3 3014 53.41% 31.12 58.59% -1.709 -0.07 -1.635
Varied Terrains 2 461 51.84% 32.24 72.23% -0.666 0.0792 -0.691
Ward the Shores 2 6026 50.21% 31.21 62.11% -0.883 0.1715 -1.078

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 64126 30.31 51.43% -1.951 -0.0417 -1.026
Aid From Lesser Spirits 47464 32.52 55.1% -1.734 -0.0493 -0.723
All Things Weaken 36506 30.71 49.8% -2.044 -0.0439 -1.046
Back Against the Wall 44800 30.8 52.27% -1.942 0.0062 -0.822
Disintegrating Ecosystem 60561 27.42 48.07% -2.146 -0.0801 -1.196
Downward Spiral 153213 24.33 56.38% -1.972 -0.0089 -0.908
Erosion of Will 63210 29.27 48.83% -2.157 -0.0498 -1.171
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13011 37.92 81.14% -0.515 0.1012 -0.142
Memory Fades to Dust 154465 23.76 52.31% -2.118 -0.0603 -1.034
Power Corrodes the Spirit 35767 30.67 52.95% -2.016 -0.0374 -1.059
Promising Farmlands 60549 28.35 48.5% -2.14 -0.0383 -1.199
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8511 38.15 84.62% -0.262 0.0677 0.101
Thriving Communities 35184 29.92 50.86% -2.079 -0.03 -1.048
Tipping Point 21452 27.31 48.73% -1.21
Unnatural Proliferation 37632 31.58 50.5% -1.987 -0.0426 -1.021
Untended Land Crumbles 35582 30.04 51.19% -2.021 0.005 -1.119

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 336008 49.26% 28.46 70.09% -0.149 0.6108 -0.149
B 343744 48.06% 30.32 71.84% -0.043 0.6337 -0.009
C 439491 47.18% 30.66 75.23% 0.15 0.6752 0.071
D 319339 47.94% 29.35 71.99% -0.094 0.6324 -0.078
E 129821 48.01% 35.92 73.25% 0.137 0.6967 0.095
F 161347 46.24% 33.69 74.16% -0.038 0.6521 -0.005
G 140779 47.45% 32.59 73.18% 0.009 0.7043 -0.031
H 147409 44.59% 33.87 75.51% 0.044 0.7051 0.094

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 185332 0.0% 19.25 70.76% -2.099 0.0197 -1.715
Not Using Events or Tokens 472225 46.44% 22.25 73.51% -0.136 0.1043 -0.239
Skip Initial Invader Actions 54186 15.14% 38.4 90.43% 0.162 -0.2071 0.068
Start of Game Growth 78197 17.69% 38.08 89.46% 0.837 0.2144 0.581
Unlimited Undo 196981 38.49% 34.48 81.91% 0.695 0.0647 0.827
Using Tokens but Not Events 198468 34.67% 29.36 81.57% -0.053 -0.009 -0.162

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 307265 22.62 30.96%
II 855296 31.05 71.27%
III 594311 34.62 85.39%
IV 260656 37.86 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 94855
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 499448
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 592841
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 256335
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34036
Lose: Adversary condition 123674
Win: Sacrifice victory 10927
Lose: Scenario condition 11896
Win: Scenario condition 17369
Lose: Blight pool ran out 358235
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17912

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)