Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1020 31.4% 30.21 -1.039 87.84% -0.593 -0.1725
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 784 34.65% 35.06 2.369 86.22% -0.173 0.1338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 958 60.21% 37.88 0.171 73.49% -1.326 -0.196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1130 65.66% 37.72 1.773 63.1% -1.287 0.0262
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 777 85.07% 38.91 2.559 51.99% -1.567 -0.2376
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 231 82.68% 42.12 4.071 51.95% -1.198 0.8187
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1097 81.31% 40.28 3.881 38.01% -1.987 0.3161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3623 23.56% 26.88 -1.728 92.82% 0.286 0.1353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3144 29.09% 31.78 -0.446 91.48% 0.086 -0.2097
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4269 36.94% 39.87 3.701 89.97% 0.158 0.2599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3721 39.67% 46.57 5.753 87.8% -0.454 -0.1513
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3011 37.29% 49.66 8.639 88.64% 0.254 0.6611
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1227 52.95% 53.31 12.763 78.24% 0.633 1.5798
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2370 74.5% 49.45 10.655 60.72% -0.793 0.6957
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4071 19.09% 27.38 -2.926 90.42% -0.894 -0.4156
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2226 31.96% 33.94 0.623 81.0% -0.593 -0.0209
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2585 48.7% 33.58 1.446 69.98% -0.894 0.2129
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3075 55.99% 35.65 1.389 54.93% -1.958 -0.3765
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2780 52.35% 41.84 4.304 61.33% -1.533 -0.0731
The Kingdom of England 5 9 873 69.07% 39.49 5.591 38.6% -1.628 0.5236
The Kingdom of England 6 11 5039 52.19% 48.84 3.862 50.41% -2.773 -0.3513
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1806 35.08% 30.0 -0.867 86.16% -0.394 0.3055
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1163 55.96% 31.64 -0.513 76.78% -1.065 0.1048
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2587 43.68% 36.5 3.898 58.95% -1.213 0.8496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2611 56.57% 42.59 4.1 58.18% -1.764 0.4789
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2195 49.84% 47.0 5.993 60.14% -1.488 0.4853
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1815 50.55% 56.62 10.245 72.95% -0.845 0.9201
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5282 56.01% 54.37 9.416 57.1% -1.998 0.2008
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 251 28.0% 29.76 -1.688 91.24% 0.139 -0.0326
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 202 36.0% 33.75 -0.493 77.72% -1.152 -0.1893
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 173 38.55% 37.43 1.143 80.35% -0.823 0.2304
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 320 45.93% 46.5 5.115 79.38% -0.714 0.0658
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 180 53.33% 44.36 4.022 68.89% -1.283 -0.2048
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 186 47.31% 54.74 7.881 79.57% -1.29 0.007
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 703 65.15% 54.05 9.228 63.02% -1.387 0.3122
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2127 29.02% 25.22 -2.36 89.47% 0.457 0.5407
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1597 29.26% 31.18 -0.508 91.42% 0.466 0.5101
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2439 36.12% 33.67 2.168 87.49% 0.879 1.1457
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2246 48.42% 41.25 3.963 84.77% -0.143 0.1978
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1574 58.94% 40.8 3.62 74.59% -0.822 0.1632
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 638 60.88% 44.48 5.54 74.92% -0.464 0.798
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3196 58.19% 47.24 9.157 70.28% -0.587 0.5071
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 846 29.86% 28.24 -1.734 90.07% -0.134 -0.5591
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 481 37.92% 36.73 1.697 85.86% -0.134 0.5585
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 580 43.45% 40.24 3.678 88.62% 0.225 0.6222
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 745 63.09% 41.9 6.344 69.8% -0.296 1.0335
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 562 64.06% 45.77 6.073 71.17% -0.915 0.2273
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 314 80.89% 44.69 6.734 47.77% -1.143 0.7328
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1099 80.8% 48.24 8.56 39.95% -1.812 0.1992

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 13.89% 28.06 88.89% -0.687 -1.0772 0.234
Blitz 0 1053 40.23% 29.32 73.22% -0.743 -0.2554 -1.104
Dahan Insurrection 4 2109 21.25% 55.06 83.26% 0.459 0.5394 0.427
Despicable Theft 2 172 44.19% 34.6 75.0% -0.488 -0.0323 -0.157
Elemental Invocation 1 318 57.23% 32.54 66.98% -0.289 0.3613 -0.885
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7593 17.38% 46.22 74.42% -0.081 0.0381 0.262
Powers Long Forgotten 1 578 64.63% 32.19 65.57% -0.94 -0.3421 -0.625
Rituals of Terror 3 544 39.81% 41.36 78.49% -0.293 -0.4117 -0.141
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 271 77.49% 35.57 59.41% -0.406 -0.0612 -1.679
Second Wave 0 4518 39.96% 32.25 80.32% -0.53 -0.0187 -0.167
Varied Terrains 2 82 48.78% 33.07 74.39% -0.192 0.6 0.206
Ward the Shores 2 857 37.05% 34.52 67.56% -0.595 0.1252 -1.344

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3589 35.52 61.74% -1.18 0.7692 -0.541
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3721 37.34 64.93% -1.101 0.6934 -0.13
All Things Weaken 1857 34.0 54.39% -1.601 0.4833 -0.65
Back Against the Wall 3638 35.58 58.6% -1.196 0.6861 -0.686
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3233 32.64 58.27% -1.275 0.7972 -0.748
Downward Spiral 6055 30.15 64.0% -1.209 0.6713 -0.569
Erosion of Will 3341 33.56 57.2% -1.496 0.5924 -0.815
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 921 38.44 77.2% -0.255 0.3524 -0.163
Memory Fades to Dust 6150 30.16 61.45% -1.216 0.8402 -0.726
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1905 33.79 59.06% -1.683 0.2368 -0.691
Promising Farmlands 3568 32.44 57.82% -1.261 0.7787 -0.872
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 675 38.01 81.19% -0.284 0.1548 -0.224
Thriving Communities 1955 33.48 58.57% -1.453 0.6218 -0.57
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.866
Unnatural Proliferation 2050 35.55 59.85% -1.524 0.4323 -0.591
Untended Land Crumbles 1879 33.22 58.44% -1.287 0.7221 -0.569

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 61247 38.74% 34.18 78.97% 0.045 0.8631 0.026
B 65042 38.18% 34.24 79.45% 0.057 0.8183 0.033
C 62076 38.35% 34.44 79.65% 0.154 0.7067 0.104
D 58792 38.24% 33.81 79.5% -0.032 0.7341 0.002
E 23424 43.63% 35.7 76.5% -0.089 0.5371 -0.087
F 31787 40.2% 35.27 78.65% -0.092 0.6297 -0.062
G 29981 40.05% 35.12 78.71% 0.001 0.6837 0.015
H 30053 40.43% 34.96 78.48% -0.001 0.6794 -0.053

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4093 0.0% 21.91 77.42% -0.926 1.2871 0.388
Not Using Events or Tokens 14873 33.12% 26.9 82.1% -0.354 -0.1531 -0.31
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3828 13.47% 36.57 91.72% 0.837 -0.4065 0.805
Start of Game Growth 5787 15.11% 35.51 90.89% 0.704 0.3258 0.38
Unlimited Undo 11969 33.19% 35.62 86.4% 0.732 0.2561 0.985
Using Tokens but Not Events 14080 21.54% 32.23 88.98% -0.008 0.1648 -0.126

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12601 22.69 18.68%
II 42601 31.12 73.26%
III 46281 34.69 92.21%
IV 19432 37.96 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2352
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 41269
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29559
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19234
Lose: Invader deck ran out 704
Lose: Adversary condition 9524
Win: Sacrifice victory 217
Lose: Scenario condition 2146
Win: Scenario condition 2938
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11974
Lose: Spirit destroyed 998

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)