Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 468 29.49% 28.9 -1.387 90.38% -0.112 0.1709
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 399 37.94% 33.08 0.868 88.22% -0.167 0.2278
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 480 59.0% 37.75 3.224 76.46% -0.84 0.0207
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 615 65.58% 36.8 2.627 63.41% -1.519 -0.2689
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 378 81.48% 37.91 3.594 50.26% -1.838 -0.3035
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 130 76.15% 41.1 5.055 50.0% -1.874 0.1946
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 520 81.73% 38.52 3.755 35.19% -2.529 -0.4515
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2491 22.46% 26.46 -2.445 93.78% 0.325 0.3679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1931 30.07% 31.13 -0.096 91.82% 0.221 0.1947
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2802 36.16% 39.33 4.051 90.15% 0.068 0.0684
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2381 40.14% 46.41 7.456 88.32% -0.131 0.1614
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 2019 37.23% 49.26 9.042 89.05% -0.164 0.2062
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 840 55.36% 52.3 10.47 76.07% -0.856 -0.0175
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1598 75.22% 48.59 8.645 59.89% -1.536 -0.288
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3094 16.88% 27.37 -1.889 91.73% -0.167 0.1641
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1534 27.18% 34.53 1.691 85.01% -0.637 -0.1474
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1685 47.84% 32.76 0.832 69.5% -1.355 -0.3906
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1915 54.57% 35.3 2.037 54.46% -2.073 -0.4927
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1827 52.58% 41.51 5.167 61.36% -1.813 -0.2983
The Kingdom of England 5 9 622 69.77% 38.65 3.774 36.5% -2.681 -0.6103
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3165 53.94% 46.81 7.393 46.51% -2.546 -0.2885
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1246 34.84% 29.47 -1.152 86.04% -0.455 0.07
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 794 55.19% 31.16 -0.13 76.95% -0.749 0.1394
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1678 43.93% 35.48 1.819 58.76% -2.038 0.0899
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1782 55.39% 41.78 5.032 57.35% -1.921 0.2631
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1576 47.46% 47.6 7.743 61.74% -1.878 0.2726
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1054 53.28% 54.8 10.97 68.98% -1.213 0.6134
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3333 54.89% 53.95 10.974 57.43% -1.949 0.1784
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1436 27.26% 24.87 -3.241 89.55% -0.14 -0.0514
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1092 27.74% 31.16 -0.236 92.22% 0.231 0.2423
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1562 36.33% 32.82 0.691 86.81% -0.253 -0.034
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1472 46.75% 41.28 5.031 86.14% -0.231 0.0522
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1047 57.29% 41.17 4.98 77.17% -0.79 -0.0192
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 487 62.32% 44.3 6.533 74.33% -0.828 0.3389
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2167 55.37% 46.5 7.346 69.87% -1.224 -0.0922
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 346 28.61% 26.39 -2.823 93.64% 0.256 0.1336
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 182 34.25% 33.96 0.908 87.36% -0.339 0.3765
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 243 39.92% 38.88 3.365 89.3% -0.173 0.2646
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 363 65.29% 39.97 4.071 67.77% -1.287 -0.0278
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 253 67.19% 43.07 5.436 65.22% -1.441 -0.3013
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 152 82.24% 42.45 5.064 42.11% -2.167 -0.1064
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 459 82.79% 47.29 7.568 40.74% -2.446 -0.5099

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 902 44.87% 27.71 -2.879 67.18% -0.852 -0.2754
Dahan Insurrection 4 1679 24.94% 53.83 10.161 81.06% -0.313 0.0881
Despicable Theft 2 12 41.67% 26.67 -2.299 66.67% -1.249 -0.8203
Elemental Invocation 1 100 55.0% 33.64 -0.652 71.0% -0.372 0.0096
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6408 15.39% 43.57 3.652 73.14% -0.676 -0.3098
Powers Long Forgotten 1 605 64.48% 31.9 -0.621 63.8% -0.823 -0.3816
Rituals of Terror 3 521 40.08% 40.19 4.154 78.69% -0.398 0.2298
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 270 74.81% 35.02 1.178 58.52% -0.874 -0.2245
Second Wave 0 3983 42.38% 31.89 -0.439 79.01% -0.548 -0.1322
Ward the Shores 2 759 38.01% 34.21 0.107 67.59% -1.281 -0.2444

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2432 35.21 -0.754 61.51% -1.413 0.6569
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2427 36.31 -0.085 64.4% -1.287 0.6308
All Things Weaken 805 32.53 -1.962 51.8% -1.828 0.327
Back Against the Wall 2360 34.98 -0.887 58.18% -1.594 0.5026
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2151 32.7 -2.044 58.95% -1.542 0.6814
Downward Spiral 4211 29.68 -2.35 63.69% -1.516 0.5004
Erosion of Will 2215 33.61 -1.482 58.42% -1.604 0.6056
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 405 37.95 0.701 74.32% -0.786 -0.0812
Memory Fades to Dust 4160 29.43 -2.498 60.53% -1.706 0.5095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 846 33.36 -1.52 60.05% -1.54 0.4804
Promising Farmlands 2456 31.65 -2.368 58.02% -1.681 0.5319
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 273 37.91 0.661 80.95% -0.461 -0.0255
Thriving Communities 842 33.11 -1.63 58.67% -1.506 0.5921
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.688 51.4% -1.906 0.3125
Unnatural Proliferation 913 35.54 -0.469 60.24% -1.414 0.6634
Untended Land Crumbles 818 32.42 -1.914 57.95% -1.627 0.4716

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 41630 38.1% 33.62 -0.152 78.94% -0.029 -1.1185
B 44877 37.79% 33.76 -0.095 79.13% -0.011 -1.1968
C 42256 37.82% 33.86 0.099 79.33% 0.078 -1.3369
D 40415 37.7% 33.41 -0.299 79.21% -0.004 -1.1807
E 9926 44.7% 35.33 0.076 75.38% -0.056 -1.333
F 17796 39.4% 35.23 0.151 78.78% 0.021 -1.2221
G 16850 39.37% 35.31 0.31 78.71% 0.064 -1.1663
H 17136 39.31% 35.15 0.131 78.61% -0.019 -1.2587

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2768 0.0% 20.85 -4.784 76.41% -1.909 0.1354
Not Using Events or Tokens 10405 34.06% 26.63 -2.626 81.43% -0.205 0.0138
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2249 13.55% 35.97 1.764 91.51% 0.413 -0.2909
Start of Game Growth 3574 15.76% 34.77 1.026 90.88% 0.54 0.086
Unlimited Undo 7057 34.07% 35.29 0.735 85.35% 0.404 -0.0081
Using Tokens but Not Events 8695 22.81% 30.68 -1.243 87.83% 0.142 0.0946

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8317 22.34 19.37%
II 27258 30.75 73.55%
III 29406 34.26 92.32%
IV 11981 37.47 99.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1215
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19404
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13916
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8897
Lose: Invader deck ran out 455
Lose: Adversary condition 5938
Win: Sacrifice victory 124
Lose: Scenario condition 1545
Win: Scenario condition 1870
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7650
Lose: Spirit destroyed 660

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)