Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 51 25.49% 26.53 78.43% -0.184 -0.367 0.248
Blitz 0 1084 39.91% 29.1 72.6% -0.831 -0.5401 -1.13
Dahan Insurrection 4 2137 21.11% 54.81 82.87% 0.015 -0.1639 0.423
Despicable Theft 2 182 45.05% 33.96 73.63% -0.606 0.0491 -0.222
Elemental Invocation 1 344 56.1% 31.46 65.41% -0.635 0.1912 -0.906
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7765 17.57% 46.19 74.28% 0.381 -0.1186 0.29
Powers Long Forgotten 1 591 63.71% 31.71 64.97% -0.941 -0.5316 -0.704
Rituals of Terror 3 553 40.07% 41.1 77.76% -1.086 -1.2026 -0.137
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 276 76.45% 35.22 59.06% -0.582 0.1928 -1.715
Second Wave 0 4614 39.65% 32.36 80.23% 0.209 0.3254 -0.17
Varied Terrains 2 96 47.92% 31.92 76.04% 0.419 0.9116 0.214
Ward the Shores 2 872 36.98% 34.34 67.32% -0.53 0.3836 -1.301

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3654 35.38 61.66% -0.184 0.4814 -0.498
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3791 37.34 64.92% -0.016 0.4482 -0.081
All Things Weaken 1919 33.91 54.46% -0.605 0.2075 -0.599
Attenuated Essence 25 31.84 56.0% -0.253 0.3921 0.035
Back Against the Wall 3699 35.63 58.77% 0.218 0.7645 -0.617
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 19 33.89 47.37% -0.529 0.3899 -0.293
Burn Brightest Before the End 40 34.67 67.5% -0.071 0.7219 0.145
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3292 32.51 58.11% -0.466 0.3911 -0.734
Downward Spiral 6161 30.07 63.82% -0.439 0.24 -0.525
Erosion of Will 3397 33.47 57.14% -0.503 0.3033 -0.763
Intensifying Exploitation 33 26.88 57.58% -0.276 0.6681 -0.997
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 949 38.21 76.61% 0.283 0.0291 -0.103
Memory Fades to Dust 6238 30.14 61.48% -0.2 0.6271 -0.672
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1973 33.54 58.59% -0.594 0.0444 -0.623
Promising Farmlands 3636 32.35 57.84% -0.488 0.4076 -0.804
Shattered Fragments of Power 44 30.84 59.09% -0.294 0.3545 -0.955
Slow Dissolution of Will 34 37.47 55.88% -0.5 0.4826 -0.119
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 713 37.66 81.21% 0.552 0.0599 -0.116
The Border of Life and Death 9 30.67 100.0% 0.849 1.0552 0.438
Thriving Communities 2034 33.3 58.26% -0.534 0.3476 -0.531
Thriving Crops 12 23.0 8.33% -1.725 -1.1725 -1.397
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.827
Unnatural Proliferation 2109 35.68 60.12% 0.046 0.7126 -0.518
Untended Land Crumbles 1931 33.12 58.31% -0.215 0.5172 -0.512

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 62675 38.69% 34.03 78.59% -0.05 0.8545 0.016
B 66489 38.15% 34.1 79.09% 0.048 0.846 0.037
C 63478 38.26% 34.31 79.29% 0.075 0.7248 0.105
D 60108 38.25% 33.65 79.12% -0.034 0.8159 0.006
E 24419 43.51% 35.38 75.8% -0.078 0.6189 -0.083
F 32824 40.09% 35.05 78.13% -0.011 0.7596 -0.058
G 30935 40.03% 34.89 78.17% 0.034 0.8067 0.016
H 31005 40.45% 34.75 77.96% 0.029 0.7499 -0.061

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4164 0.0% 21.85 77.19% -0.424 0.7773 0.419
Not Using Events or Tokens 15088 33.07% 26.78 81.79% -0.053 0.1906 -0.298
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3945 13.09% 36.85 91.48% 1.164 0.5866 1.05
Start of Game Growth 5973 14.94% 35.62 90.39% -0.218 -0.6769 0.131
Unlimited Undo 12365 32.94% 35.53 86.03% 0.501 0.3236 0.943
Using Tokens but Not Events 14486 21.43% 32.11 88.49% 0.167 0.1278 -0.124

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13444 21.84 17.76%
II 43570 31.08 73.14%
III 47254 34.71 92.2%
IV 19829 37.98 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2386
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42151
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30193
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19627
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 722
Lose: Invader deck ran out 722
Lose: Adversary condition 9709
Win: Sacrifice victory 226
Lose: Scenario condition 2173
Win: Scenario condition 2961
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12209
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1018

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)