Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 69 26.09% 32.29 76.81% 1.004 0.7201 0.951
Blitz 0 1162 39.07% 28.69 71.69% -0.304 -0.144 -1.028
Dahan Insurrection 4 2199 20.83% 54.36 82.17% -0.339 -0.7186 0.503
Despicable Theft 2 190 44.44% 33.08 71.58% -1.278 -0.5105 -0.344
Elemental Invocation 1 400 53.0% 30.6 65.75% -0.101 0.6236 -0.85
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8144 17.44% 46.0 73.92% 0.763 0.1318 0.381
Powers Long Forgotten 1 607 63.18% 31.49 65.07% -0.132 0.475 -0.661
Rituals of Terror 3 571 39.51% 40.6 77.06% -0.587 -0.4272 -0.079
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 280 75.71% 34.84 58.57% -0.65 0.4126 -1.709
Second Wave 0 4856 38.82% 32.45 80.19% 0.49 0.5676 -0.129
Varied Terrains 2 127 47.24% 30.54 69.29% -0.774 -0.1505 0.359
Ward the Shores 2 895 36.92% 33.81 66.37% -1.11 -0.0677 -1.232

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3755 35.16 61.28% 0.081 0.3111 -0.353
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3883 37.25 64.77% 0.515 0.4411 0.057
All Things Weaken 2043 33.49 53.79% -0.225 0.143 -0.478
Attenuated Essence 94 32.93 58.51% 0.565 0.6552 0.117
Back Against the Wall 3814 35.58 58.94% 0.646 0.6973 -0.466
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 97 30.53 44.33% -0.135 0.0825 -0.943
Burn Brightest Before the End 129 33.81 55.04% 0.221 0.3898 -0.811
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3409 32.45 58.05% 0.177 0.5812 -0.575
Downward Spiral 6391 29.85 63.32% 0.066 0.3069 -0.395
Erosion of Will 3503 33.4 57.07% 0.391 0.6949 -0.607
Intensifying Exploitation 124 29.28 50.81% 0.152 0.4306 -0.829
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1005 37.83 76.42% 0.495 0.0058 -0.01
Memory Fades to Dust 6409 30.11 61.38% 0.299 0.6385 -0.509
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2096 33.2 57.63% -0.283 -0.0598 -0.511
Promising Farmlands 3756 32.19 57.53% -0.077 0.3816 -0.678
Shattered Fragments of Power 109 36.32 62.39% 0.597 0.6305 -0.281
Slow Dissolution of Will 100 34.67 49.0% -0.248 0.1472 -1.004
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 758 37.61 80.47% 0.62 -0.0704 -0.008
The Border of Life and Death 33 31.39 72.73% 0.62 0.2873 -0.487
Thriving Communities 2171 33.24 58.27% 0.432 0.7763 -0.398
Thriving Crops 54 37.33 53.7% 0.48 0.2929 0.108
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.7
Unnatural Proliferation 2237 35.43 59.81% 0.3 0.4777 -0.347
Untended Land Crumbles 2055 32.98 57.81% 0.28 0.5405 -0.383

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65606 38.54% 33.74 77.71% -0.024 0.7486 0.022
B 69353 38.04% 33.8 78.22% -0.029 0.7262 0.038
C 66427 38.1% 34.01 78.38% 0.033 0.6373 0.113
D 62671 38.21% 33.33 78.2% -0.098 0.6301 -0.01
E 26529 43.08% 34.83 74.59% 0.051 0.6471 -0.056
F 34998 39.99% 34.63 77.05% 0.004 0.6626 -0.077
G 32791 40.0% 34.43 77.06% 0.014 0.6947 0.03
H 32920 40.39% 34.3 76.85% 0.004 0.5994 -0.083

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4372 0.0% 21.66 76.51% -0.059 0.7261 0.03
Not Using Events or Tokens 15694 32.77% 26.38 80.7% -0.259 0.0982 -0.346
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4203 12.56% 36.82 90.36% 0.815 0.1776 1.116
Start of Game Growth 6360 14.72% 35.41 88.77% -0.45 -0.7466 -0.102
Unlimited Undo 13217 32.51% 35.09 84.7% 0.245 0.226 0.925
Using Tokens but Not Events 15255 21.56% 31.98 87.53% 0.168 0.1218 -0.14

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15345 20.49 16.09%
II 45418 31.02 72.75%
III 49167 34.76 92.18%
IV 20633 38.06 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2467
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43879
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31342
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20428
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2360
Lose: Invader deck ran out 740
Lose: Adversary condition 10115
Win: Sacrifice victory 233
Lose: Scenario condition 2236
Win: Scenario condition 3004
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12707
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1052

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)