Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 70 25.71% 32.63 77.14% 1.008 0.752 0.979
Blitz 0 1165 38.96% 28.64 71.59% -0.375 -0.1778 -1.017
Dahan Insurrection 4 2210 21.0% 54.17 81.86% -0.315 -0.757 0.486
Despicable Theft 2 191 44.21% 32.91 71.2% -1.593 -0.7806 -0.339
Elemental Invocation 1 402 52.74% 30.66 65.92% 0.09 0.7924 -0.842
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8151 17.44% 45.98 73.91% 0.708 0.0631 0.393
Powers Long Forgotten 1 609 63.31% 31.44 64.86% -0.239 0.396 -0.659
Rituals of Terror 3 571 39.51% 40.6 77.06% -0.563 -0.4616 -0.071
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 280 75.71% 34.84 58.57% -0.761 0.248 -1.714
Second Wave 0 4872 38.8% 32.46 80.15% 0.432 0.498 -0.125
Varied Terrains 2 130 47.69% 30.96 70.0% -0.691 -0.0682 0.376
Ward the Shores 2 896 36.88% 33.81 66.41% -1.179 -0.0943 -1.225

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3769 35.13 61.26% -0.018 0.2249 -0.351
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3891 37.26 64.74% 0.546 0.4681 0.07
All Things Weaken 2056 33.52 53.79% -0.151 0.2419 -0.464
Attenuated Essence 100 32.13 56.0% 0.406 0.5129 0.042
Back Against the Wall 3822 35.56 58.9% 0.418 0.4759 -0.455
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 108 31.03 46.3% -0.072 0.1298 -0.938
Burn Brightest Before the End 134 33.54 52.99% 0.02 0.2305 -0.907
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3411 32.44 58.02% 0.146 0.5692 -0.562
Downward Spiral 6404 29.83 63.3% 0.054 0.2895 -0.385
Erosion of Will 3511 33.41 57.11% 0.372 0.6809 -0.585
Intensifying Exploitation 126 29.38 50.79% 0.046 0.3337 -0.715
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1007 37.81 76.37% 0.383 -0.1111 -0.009
Memory Fades to Dust 6422 30.07 61.32% 0.256 0.5923 -0.502
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2105 33.16 57.72% -0.137 0.0837 -0.501
Promising Farmlands 3760 32.16 57.5% -0.144 0.309 -0.668
Shattered Fragments of Power 111 36.53 62.16% 0.601 0.6517 -0.283
Slow Dissolution of Will 107 34.71 48.6% -0.156 0.2434 -1.059
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 758 37.61 80.47% 0.755 0.0443 0.004
The Border of Life and Death 33 31.39 72.73% 0.608 0.2729 -0.474
Thriving Communities 2174 33.22 58.19% 0.378 0.7405 -0.391
Thriving Crops 57 35.86 50.88% 0.447 0.2495 0.007
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.684
Unnatural Proliferation 2243 35.37 59.74% 0.25 0.4653 -0.338
Untended Land Crumbles 2065 32.92 57.63% 0.144 0.4261 -0.391

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65808 38.52% 33.72 77.65% 0.034 0.7737 0.028
B 69567 38.03% 33.77 78.15% -0.015 0.7105 0.04
C 66638 38.09% 33.98 78.29% 0.007 0.5894 0.112
D 62851 38.2% 33.31 78.13% -0.124 0.5875 -0.012
E 26662 43.06% 34.79 74.48% 0.059 0.6244 -0.056
F 35120 39.98% 34.59 76.95% -0.014 0.6566 -0.081
G 32910 40.0% 34.39 76.97% -0.008 0.6435 0.027
H 33042 40.38% 34.26 76.74% 0.018 0.5887 -0.081

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4379 0.0% 21.65 76.46% -0.033 0.7434 0.045
Not Using Events or Tokens 15749 32.72% 26.33 80.6% -0.32 0.0591 -0.345
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4223 12.55% 36.81 90.22% 0.742 0.1243 1.076
Start of Game Growth 6384 14.69% 35.4 88.66% -0.428 -0.7767 -0.109
Unlimited Undo 13287 32.47% 35.07 84.59% 0.257 0.2504 0.928
Using Tokens but Not Events 15297 21.55% 31.99 87.53% 0.2 0.1899 -0.131

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15476 20.4 15.98%
II 45555 31.01 72.7%
III 49276 34.76 92.15%
IV 20686 38.07 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43968
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31417
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20481
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2501
Lose: Invader deck ran out 742
Lose: Adversary condition 10132
Win: Sacrifice victory 233
Lose: Scenario condition 2236
Win: Scenario condition 3007
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12752
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1053

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)