Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 65 24.62% 30.85 75.38% 0.429 0.1632 0.915
Blitz 0 1144 39.07% 28.72 72.03% -0.4 -0.2431 -1.046
Dahan Insurrection 4 2185 20.83% 54.39 82.33% -0.352 -0.6196 0.482
Despicable Theft 2 187 44.62% 33.54 72.73% -0.533 0.2292 -0.275
Elemental Invocation 1 391 54.22% 30.6 64.96% -0.476 0.285 -0.861
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8066 17.42% 46.0 74.04% 0.728 0.0947 0.364
Powers Long Forgotten 1 604 63.33% 31.51 65.07% -0.432 0.1013 -0.669
Rituals of Terror 3 567 39.79% 40.66 77.07% -0.849 -0.7467 -0.092
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 279 75.63% 34.84 58.42% -1.026 -0.0206 -1.742
Second Wave 0 4823 38.92% 32.45 80.18% 0.382 0.448 -0.124
Varied Terrains 2 118 44.07% 31.79 73.73% 0.122 0.7008 0.35
Ward the Shores 2 890 37.02% 33.89 66.52% -1.188 -0.0335 -1.245

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3732 35.22 61.41% 0.125 0.3154 -0.366
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3866 37.25 64.74% 0.379 0.3145 0.025
All Things Weaken 2024 33.6 53.95% -0.203 0.1835 -0.497
Attenuated Essence 81 31.96 56.79% 0.393 0.4985 -0.013
Back Against the Wall 3797 35.58 58.94% 0.825 0.8871 -0.499
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 80 32.54 52.5% 0.093 0.3764 -0.715
Burn Brightest Before the End 110 33.7 55.45% 0.126 0.3172 -0.879
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3388 32.49 58.12% 0.123 0.5552 -0.607
Downward Spiral 6347 29.86 63.4% -0.036 0.2247 -0.413
Erosion of Will 3487 33.4 57.04% 0.252 0.5815 -0.634
Intensifying Exploitation 108 29.75 50.0% 0.051 0.3489 -0.801
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 994 37.82 76.46% 0.357 -0.141 -0.007
Memory Fades to Dust 6388 30.08 61.37% 0.318 0.712 -0.554
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2069 33.25 57.95% -0.217 0.0282 -0.526
Promising Farmlands 3729 32.24 57.5% -0.115 0.3722 -0.7
Shattered Fragments of Power 97 37.07 64.95% 0.645 0.7219 -0.216
Slow Dissolution of Will 89 36.89 53.93% 0.016 0.4502 -0.771
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 747 37.58 80.46% 0.854 0.2218 -0.015
The Border of Life and Death 31 29.87 70.97% 0.516 0.1557 -0.713
Thriving Communities 2135 33.27 58.22% 0.206 0.584 -0.429
Thriving Crops 44 35.57 47.73% -0.157 -0.2138 -0.058
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.727
Unnatural Proliferation 2209 35.43 59.71% 0.343 0.5427 -0.372
Untended Land Crumbles 2033 32.98 57.94% 0.211 0.4811 -0.404

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65039 38.56% 33.8 77.89% -0.006 0.8556 0.029
B 68802 38.04% 33.85 78.41% -0.027 0.8007 0.037
C 65878 38.15% 34.07 78.56% 0.061 0.7497 0.108
D 62198 38.21% 33.4 78.39% -0.056 0.7718 -0.011
E 26137 43.13% 34.91 74.79% 0.024 0.6821 -0.064
F 34568 40.01% 34.7 77.26% -0.001 0.7515 -0.064
G 32415 39.96% 34.49 77.26% -0.015 0.7556 0.027
H 32584 40.45% 34.36 76.98% -0.027 0.6623 -0.086

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4321 0.0% 21.78 76.86% -0.002 0.8236 -0.001
Not Using Events or Tokens 15585 32.85% 26.47 80.96% -0.265 0.0713 -0.347
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4161 12.65% 36.79 90.53% 0.8 0.1924 1.183
Start of Game Growth 6289 14.69% 35.4 89.06% -0.37 -0.6479 -0.135
Unlimited Undo 13065 32.59% 35.15 84.88% 0.266 0.266 0.908
Using Tokens but Not Events 15124 21.4% 32.03 87.79% 0.197 0.1271 -0.103

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14978 20.73 16.4%
II 45084 31.02 72.82%
III 48785 34.75 92.19%
IV 20492 38.04 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2455
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43535
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31140
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20289
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2042
Lose: Invader deck ran out 739
Lose: Adversary condition 10039
Win: Sacrifice victory 231
Lose: Scenario condition 2218
Win: Scenario condition 2994
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12613
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1044

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)