Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 427 29.98% 28.52 -1.513 89.93% -0.139 0.1418
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 376 37.6% 33.03 0.882 88.03% -0.159 0.2141
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 437 59.77% 37.58 3.201 76.2% -0.798 0.0494
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 571 65.55% 37.01 2.734 63.92% -1.463 -0.2255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 350 82.0% 37.93 3.615 50.29% -1.804 -0.2815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 119 77.31% 40.32 4.756 47.9% -1.909 0.1186
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 490 82.04% 38.23 3.63 34.49% -2.537 -0.4452
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2387 22.53% 26.44 -2.44 93.84% 0.352 0.3997
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1814 30.44% 31.16 -0.075 91.9% 0.256 0.2272
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2698 36.34% 39.32 4.06 90.14% 0.092 0.0892
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2296 40.49% 46.39 7.451 88.24% -0.113 0.171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1947 37.22% 49.28 9.06 89.06% -0.145 0.2332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 812 54.8% 52.36 10.498 76.23% -0.842 -0.009
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1552 75.52% 48.47 8.602 59.6% -1.521 -0.2715
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3014 16.76% 27.38 -1.872 91.74% -0.148 0.1849
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1468 27.11% 34.52 1.698 85.01% -0.614 -0.1312
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1608 47.14% 32.94 0.925 69.9% -1.315 -0.3576
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1839 54.38% 35.47 2.142 55.03% -2.026 -0.4486
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1725 53.49% 41.21 5.043 60.64% -1.807 -0.285
The Kingdom of England 5 9 602 69.77% 38.86 3.898 37.04% -2.631 -0.5675
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3018 54.11% 46.65 7.33 46.09% -2.546 -0.2904
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1194 34.85% 29.41 -1.167 85.93% -0.438 0.0861
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 776 54.92% 31.27 -0.088 77.45% -0.702 0.1894
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1582 43.75% 35.53 1.85 58.98% -2.007 0.1212
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1700 55.65% 41.9 5.1 57.65% -1.882 0.3043
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1512 47.09% 47.86 7.885 62.43% -1.832 0.3138
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 999 53.01% 54.92 11.056 69.17% -1.187 0.6317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3200 54.86% 53.91 10.968 57.34% -1.939 0.1957
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1368 27.5% 24.92 -3.223 89.33% -0.143 -0.0577
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1025 28.68% 31.03 -0.292 91.9% 0.224 0.233
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1498 36.53% 32.73 0.653 86.45% -0.263 -0.0464
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1404 46.74% 41.25 5.024 85.9% -0.231 0.054
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1000 57.59% 41.08 4.946 76.8% -0.786 -0.0091
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 472 61.75% 44.6 6.693 75.0% -0.787 0.3783
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2099 55.31% 46.51 7.356 69.94% -1.2 -0.0677
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 307 30.94% 26.08 -2.919 93.49% 0.289 0.172
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 168 35.33% 33.56 0.76 86.31% -0.402 0.2861
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 218 42.2% 38.5 3.215 88.53% -0.205 0.2306
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 333 66.07% 39.7 3.893 66.97% -1.317 -0.0424
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 228 67.98% 42.92 5.366 64.91% -1.437 -0.2796
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 142 81.69% 42.82 5.248 42.96% -2.12 -0.0844
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 419 82.34% 47.96 7.929 42.24% -2.382 -0.4328

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 870 45.1% 27.82 -2.834 67.24% -0.84 -0.2678
Dahan Insurrection 4 1614 24.76% 53.95 10.186 80.98% -0.314 0.0868
Elemental Invocation 1 65 58.46% 31.85 -1.37 67.69% -0.513 -0.0481
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6096 15.01% 43.38 3.582 73.2% -0.691 -0.3159
Powers Long Forgotten 1 590 64.42% 31.96 -0.607 63.9% -0.82 -0.3728
Rituals of Terror 3 508 40.32% 40.06 4.069 78.35% -0.421 0.2015
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 263 74.9% 35.06 1.154 58.17% -0.892 -0.2681
Second Wave 0 3819 42.75% 31.95 -0.417 78.82% -0.546 -0.1268
Ward the Shores 2 736 38.11% 34.2 0.083 67.39% -1.288 -0.257

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2339 35.25 -0.738 61.74% -1.406 0.6618
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2330 36.32 -0.082 64.51% -1.288 0.6287
All Things Weaken 745 32.21 -2.095 51.14% -1.878 0.2824
Back Against the Wall 2261 34.9 -0.916 58.12% -1.604 0.4885
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2073 32.75 -2.027 59.19% -1.539 0.6821
Downward Spiral 4103 29.75 -2.324 63.86% -1.51 0.5046
Erosion of Will 2132 33.52 -1.516 58.26% -1.614 0.5974
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 362 37.67 0.579 74.03% -0.808 -0.0964
Memory Fades to Dust 4018 29.43 -2.481 60.48% -1.707 0.5084
Power Corrodes the Spirit 781 33.44 -1.474 60.31% -1.531 0.4886
Promising Farmlands 2368 31.66 -2.384 58.11% -1.684 0.5305
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 244 38.75 1.007 81.97% -0.396 0.021
Thriving Communities 757 33.12 -1.594 58.65% -1.511 0.5958
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.701 51.4% -1.91 0.3066
Unnatural Proliferation 835 35.31 -0.524 60.48% -1.422 0.6582
Untended Land Crumbles 753 32.22 -1.985 57.5% -1.647 0.4483

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 40135 38.22% 33.6 -0.167 78.91% -0.029 -1.1021
B 43293 37.91% 33.79 -0.074 79.1% -0.007 -1.171
C 40691 37.91% 33.84 0.09 79.27% 0.073 -1.3234
D 38980 37.65% 33.39 -0.313 79.22% -0.006 -1.1637
E 8999 45.13% 35.29 0.06 75.14% -0.06 -1.3164
F 16658 39.55% 35.3 0.168 78.78% 0.025 -1.2012
G 15807 39.43% 35.41 0.346 78.71% 0.07 -1.1429
H 16036 39.41% 35.18 0.123 78.5% -0.024 -1.2453

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2625 0.0% 20.9 -4.774 75.96% -1.926 0.1124
Not Using Events or Tokens 9986 34.44% 26.64 -2.638 81.32% -0.198 0.0227
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2175 13.38% 36.19 1.832 91.82% 0.454 -0.2518
Start of Game Growth 3427 15.96% 34.9 1.057 91.07% 0.56 0.1012
Unlimited Undo 6783 34.11% 35.42 0.764 85.21% 0.399 -0.0031
Using Tokens but Not Events 8467 22.99% 30.65 -1.259 87.61% 0.13 0.0837

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7995 22.34 19.59%
II 26098 30.71 73.62%
III 28018 34.23 92.29%
IV 11422 37.48 99.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1170
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 18161
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13109
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8348
Lose: Invader deck ran out 440
Lose: Adversary condition 5656
Win: Sacrifice victory 114
Lose: Scenario condition 1477
Win: Scenario condition 1799
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7336
Lose: Spirit destroyed 635

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)