Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1428 30.55% 28.42 -0.033 80.46% -0.401 0.0432
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1092 35.5% 32.85 0.817 80.49% -0.331 -0.0238
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1352 56.71% 34.78 -0.149 66.94% -1.314 -0.5391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1730 60.16% 34.03 1.512 55.66% -1.162 -0.1949
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1118 78.44% 35.32 -0.234 47.32% -1.835 -0.4089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 366 79.51% 39.43 4.644 48.36% -1.055 0.3809
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1649 75.2% 34.47 -2.114 32.57% -2.644 -0.5472
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4416 24.45% 25.85 -0.908 88.5% -0.164 0.0761
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4201 28.42% 30.81 1.058 86.93% 0.014 0.1294
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5540 35.74% 38.59 4.789 86.01% 0.172 0.2806
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4824 40.02% 43.73 4.349 82.05% -0.441 -0.2182
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3776 37.76% 47.32 7.103 84.14% -0.252 0.0366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1603 51.6% 51.15 11.803 74.67% 0.074 0.6681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3132 70.23% 45.98 7.23 56.51% -1.089 0.3968
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4776 20.17% 26.44 -1.196 86.16% -0.218 0.1098
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2731 32.31% 32.44 0.339 77.15% -0.735 -0.4312
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3308 46.8% 31.72 0.202 65.21% -1.234 -0.5055
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3956 53.77% 33.63 -0.163 51.77% -1.698 -0.5031
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3589 50.45% 39.4 4.64 56.9% -1.17 0.0476
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1195 67.11% 36.11 0.73 35.15% -2.085 -0.4127
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6705 51.05% 43.3 -1.298 43.79% -2.623 -0.5626
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2174 34.84% 28.7 -1.787 81.83% -0.782 -0.2275
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1502 53.18% 30.2 1.036 73.1% -0.508 0.1737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3424 42.25% 35.0 1.714 56.19% -1.06 0.0419
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3267 54.71% 41.12 2.71 56.23% -1.762 -0.3707
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2860 46.51% 42.58 3.694 54.16% -1.595 -0.1291
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2332 49.21% 56.2 12.082 72.98% -0.532 0.5386
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6637 54.87% 51.07 5.285 53.04% -1.831 -0.4105
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 641 26.11% 26.66 0.375 80.66% 0.243 0.4884
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 596 37.69% 29.61 -0.822 69.63% -0.805 -0.1744
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 646 36.59% 32.84 3.922 71.21% 0.087 0.5489
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1053 37.76% 41.26 7.98 70.85% -0.175 0.2902
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 721 45.14% 39.63 3.149 62.97% -1.187 -0.3868
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 580 47.59% 50.47 9.792 70.69% -0.577 -0.0123
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2217 56.79% 44.34 6.218 53.13% -1.439 -0.4717
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2665 28.4% 24.26 -1.154 84.69% -0.076 0.1288
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2019 28.37% 29.78 2.154 86.58% 0.595 0.6315
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3087 36.07% 32.43 0.737 83.77% -0.293 -0.0787
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2867 47.48% 39.15 1.522 80.22% -0.73 -0.3699
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1948 57.06% 39.35 2.523 71.61% -0.974 -0.2754
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 836 59.83% 40.65 5.189 65.91% -0.836 -0.04
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4068 57.75% 44.6 4.938 66.27% -1.064 0.042
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1210 29.09% 26.89 -0.928 84.71% -0.114 0.0558
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 732 36.8% 32.33 -1.886 75.68% -0.874 -0.0345
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 843 41.16% 38.34 5.624 82.8% 0.393 0.6116
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1062 59.51% 38.88 3.634 64.78% -0.892 0.2039
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 826 58.18% 42.38 5.423 66.1% -0.774 0.2025
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 461 75.7% 40.0 0.431 42.52% -1.788 -0.1206
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1679 74.15% 41.65 1.136 34.48% -2.197 -0.529

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 143 30.07% 32.66 65.73% -0.123 -0.0715 0.551
Blitz 0 1441 36.29% 28.24 68.22% -0.256 -0.0554 -0.807
Dahan Insurrection 4 2485 21.57% 52.81 79.56% -0.271 -0.4824 0.616
Despicable Theft 2 265 40.15% 30.77 64.91% -1.045 -0.2006 -0.491
Elemental Invocation 1 597 45.73% 28.52 59.8% -0.92 0.1511 -1.09
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9280 17.59% 45.64 73.2% 0.3 -0.4245 0.6
Powers Long Forgotten 1 737 58.94% 28.8 58.89% -1.794 -0.8883 -0.624
Rituals of Terror 3 686 37.0% 36.87 70.26% -0.62 -0.5903 -0.147
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 329 72.34% 32.72 55.93% -1.558 -0.3692 -1.568
Second Wave 0 5778 38.56% 32.91 78.97% 0.025 0.1056 0.078
Varied Terrains 2 251 48.61% 26.9 59.36% -1.014 -0.1127 0.023
Ward the Shores 2 1001 36.51% 32.64 63.74% -0.673 0.3819 -0.982

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4253 34.76 60.43% 0.224 0.3626 -0.051
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4399 37.15 64.49% 0.551 0.4917 0.369
All Things Weaken 2565 32.97 53.68% -0.041 0.3135 -0.136
Attenuated Essence 425 33.46 54.12% 0.01 0.1207 -0.067
Back Against the Wall 4347 35.21 58.55% 0.323 0.3995 -0.139
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 398 31.74 51.51% -0.024 0.1865 -0.385
Burn Brightest Before the End 438 32.96 51.37% 0.078 0.1986 -0.557
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3920 31.94 57.37% -0.289 0.08 -0.236
Downward Spiral 7356 29.3 62.28% -0.202 -0.0056 -0.001
Erosion of Will 4035 32.98 56.6% -0.007 0.2599 -0.22
Intensifying Exploitation 427 30.5 50.35% -0.119 0.1517 -0.36
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1262 36.58 74.33% 0.23 -0.281 0.224
Memory Fades to Dust 7332 29.29 59.82% -0.083 0.2287 -0.198
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2623 32.31 56.77% -0.112 0.1823 -0.225
Promising Farmlands 4284 31.69 56.42% -0.456 -0.1202 -0.369
Shattered Fragments of Power 405 35.46 55.31% 0.126 0.2348 -0.364
Slow Dissolution of Will 403 32.53 48.14% 0.083 0.4831 -0.45
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 910 36.75 79.56% 0.997 0.3836 0.227
The Border of Life and Death 124 31.56 68.55% 0.087 -0.2052 0.146
Thriving Communities 2648 32.33 56.87% -0.498 -0.1657 -0.124
Thriving Crops 241 32.77 55.6% 0.051 -0.0354 -0.401
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.402
Unnatural Proliferation 2769 35.23 60.02% 0.428 0.5763 -0.021
Untended Land Crumbles 2566 32.26 56.35% -0.342 -0.0353 -0.14

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 78225 38.17% 32.48 74.57% 0.028 0.9326 0.011
B 81874 37.8% 32.59 75.07% 0.026 0.8543 0.023
C 78886 37.78% 32.7 75.07% -0.092 0.5882 0.093
D 73936 38.24% 32.07 74.82% -0.162 0.6912 -0.056
E 35117 42.35% 33.2 70.94% 0.088 0.7889 -0.024
F 43774 39.7% 33.19 73.64% 0.033 0.8143 -0.079
G 40783 40.12% 33.13 73.59% 0.016 0.7879 0.035
H 40964 40.17% 33.02 73.53% 0.018 0.7863 -0.024

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5160 0.0% 20.74 72.95% -0.66 0.1713 -0.43
Not Using Events or Tokens 18556 31.72% 24.78 76.35% -0.406 0.0352 -0.443
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5250 12.71% 37.55 87.81% 1.125 0.5629 1.245
Start of Game Growth 7816 14.17% 35.57 85.75% 0.184 -0.3548 -0.133
Unlimited Undo 16504 31.05% 33.26 79.76% -0.123 -0.0825 0.669
Using Tokens but Not Events 18347 21.75% 31.2 84.35% 0.086 0.0625 -0.239

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23168 16.23 11.69%
II 52957 30.54 70.98%
III 57385 34.77 91.87%
IV 24490 38.37 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2707
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 51177
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 35757
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24256
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9218
Lose: Invader deck ran out 836
Lose: Adversary condition 11897
Win: Sacrifice victory 261
Lose: Scenario condition 2416
Win: Scenario condition 3218
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15023
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1234

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)