Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 57 26.32% 27.51 77.19% 0.235 0.1733 1.082
Blitz 0 1122 39.38% 28.94 72.37% -0.221 -0.0815 -1.071
Dahan Insurrection 4 2166 21.01% 54.49 82.46% -0.354 -0.5277 0.457
Despicable Theft 2 184 44.81% 33.59 72.83% -0.586 0.0809 -0.284
Elemental Invocation 1 374 54.55% 30.92 64.97% -0.628 0.1028 -0.824
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7960 17.57% 46.04 74.05% 0.635 0.002 0.343
Powers Long Forgotten 1 600 63.59% 31.61 65.33% -0.351 0.1199 -0.668
Rituals of Terror 3 562 39.96% 40.81 77.4% -0.968 -0.9564 -0.091
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 278 75.9% 34.97 58.63% -0.86 0.0887 -1.737
Second Wave 0 4747 39.33% 32.38 80.09% 0.418 0.4947 -0.136
Varied Terrains 2 108 45.37% 31.88 73.15% 0.023 0.5917 0.325
Ward the Shores 2 890 37.02% 33.89 66.52% -1.128 0.1068 -1.256

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3707 35.23 61.42% 0.006 0.2782 -0.419
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3843 37.26 64.77% 0.317 0.3812 -0.013
All Things Weaken 1986 33.66 54.28% -0.16 0.3096 -0.511
Attenuated Essence 70 33.14 60.0% 0.514 0.7731 0.03
Back Against the Wall 3759 35.64 58.9% 0.815 0.9974 -0.523
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 60 32.73 46.67% -0.162 0.3015 -0.697
Burn Brightest Before the End 79 32.95 51.9% -0.08 0.2441 -0.766
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3346 32.48 58.13% -0.04 0.5043 -0.644
Downward Spiral 6284 29.92 63.53% -0.105 0.252 -0.443
Erosion of Will 3452 33.4 57.04% -0.123 0.3309 -0.669
Intensifying Exploitation 85 29.59 49.41% -0.051 0.3581 -0.677
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 972 38.09 76.75% 0.643 0.1308 -0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 6332 30.07 61.34% 0.068 0.5678 -0.594
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2040 33.45 58.38% -0.108 0.2017 -0.541
Promising Farmlands 3699 32.25 57.5% -0.284 0.3016 -0.735
Shattered Fragments of Power 72 34.81 61.11% 0.391 0.5936 -0.643
Slow Dissolution of Will 77 36.86 51.95% -0.208 0.3536 -0.802
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 734 37.7 80.79% 0.88 0.1579 -0.051
The Border of Life and Death 22 24.91 63.64% 0.168 0.0597 -0.912
Thriving Communities 2099 33.29 58.17% -0.098 0.4093 -0.456
Thriving Crops 37 35.0 45.95% -0.279 -0.1622 -0.29
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.752
Unnatural Proliferation 2174 35.5 59.94% 0.321 0.6397 -0.398
Untended Land Crumbles 2000 32.99 57.8% -0.026 0.3542 -0.45

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 64250 38.6% 33.85 78.05% -0.054 0.816 0.016
B 67998 38.07% 33.9 78.58% -0.033 0.7704 0.042
C 65077 38.16% 34.13 78.74% 0.062 0.742 0.103
D 61505 38.2% 33.47 78.58% -0.036 0.7938 -0.002
E 25525 43.21% 35.07 75.1% 0.032 0.6875 -0.065
F 33948 40.0% 34.8 77.52% -0.017 0.7272 -0.055
G 31924 40.04% 34.61 77.51% 0.035 0.8157 0.024
H 32042 40.45% 34.48 77.26% -0.032 0.6551 -0.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4267 0.0% 21.75 76.75% -0.16 0.7465 -0.038
Not Using Events or Tokens 15426 32.92% 26.55 81.17% -0.182 0.1342 -0.345
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4082 12.7% 36.7 90.62% 0.83 0.2688 1.168
Start of Game Growth 6179 14.66% 35.41 89.3% -0.356 -0.6676 -0.042
Unlimited Undo 12820 32.56% 35.2 85.06% 0.19 0.1641 0.911
Using Tokens but Not Events 14933 21.48% 32.05 87.93% 0.282 0.2166 -0.094

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14491 21.09 16.8%
II 44557 31.04 72.86%
III 48243 34.73 92.18%
IV 20260 38.01 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2433
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43039
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30779
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20057
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1626
Lose: Invader deck ran out 730
Lose: Adversary condition 9942
Win: Sacrifice victory 231
Lose: Scenario condition 2209
Win: Scenario condition 2981
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12490
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1034

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)