Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 995 31.39% 30.23 -0.101 88.14% -0.046 0.4621
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 762 34.95% 34.94 3.11 86.09% -0.242 0.1613
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 937 59.96% 37.98 2.453 73.85% -0.637 0.5407
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1105 65.52% 37.66 1.983 63.26% -1.334 0.0914
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 734 84.74% 39.05 5.781 52.59% -0.695 0.8853
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 225 82.22% 41.96 0.718 51.56% -1.272 0.6644
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1067 81.16% 40.26 3.748 38.14% -2.213 0.0576
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3577 23.64% 26.84 -2.961 92.82% -0.348 -0.3952
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3081 29.2% 31.7 -0.409 91.43% 0.212 -0.0207
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4211 37.08% 39.82 3.466 89.93% 0.001 0.191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3658 39.7% 46.59 6.223 87.94% -0.394 -0.028
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2967 37.41% 49.65 9.072 88.61% 0.476 0.8352
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1201 53.43% 53.13 10.584 77.77% -0.547 0.6195
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2332 74.78% 49.26 7.942 60.33% -1.436 0.0109
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4033 18.93% 27.38 -2.599 90.48% -0.649 -0.092
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2190 31.88% 33.92 0.104 81.1% -0.8 -0.1221
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2549 48.84% 33.51 0.682 69.91% -1.153 0.0004
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3029 56.05% 35.63 1.768 54.94% -1.746 -0.0694
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2714 52.48% 41.88 5.275 61.61% -1.083 0.3843
The Kingdom of England 5 9 866 69.63% 39.31 -0.821 38.22% -2.441 -0.3978
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4940 52.18% 48.8 3.361 50.43% -2.81 -0.2467
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1786 34.96% 30.01 -0.859 86.28% 0.043 0.7164
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1136 56.5% 31.58 0.56 76.94% -0.592 0.48
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2544 43.87% 36.38 3.398 58.61% -1.511 0.6045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2571 56.57% 42.57 5.511 58.23% -1.538 0.5925
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2173 49.75% 46.98 3.587 60.15% -2.249 0.0962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1777 50.51% 56.61 10.812 72.99% -0.848 1.2168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5171 56.0% 54.3 11.486 57.11% -1.581 0.5936
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 228 27.19% 29.96 -1.95 91.23% 0.15 0.0567
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 175 36.78% 33.93 0.047 79.43% -0.83 0.061
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 146 41.43% 36.96 -0.65 80.14% -1.209 -0.0066
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 261 44.35% 47.19 5.816 81.99% -0.526 0.3334
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 140 52.14% 45.31 4.876 72.14% -1.139 0.0781
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 150 45.33% 55.63 10.399 82.67% -0.743 0.4949
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 600 67.17% 53.55 8.98 62.0% -1.343 0.2142
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2108 28.9% 25.2 -1.839 89.47% 0.256 0.4269
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1578 29.39% 31.13 -0.808 91.32% 0.347 0.5664
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2400 36.29% 33.54 1.091 87.38% 0.618 0.898
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2223 48.38% 41.25 4.606 84.84% 0.021 0.4728
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1556 58.79% 40.82 5.545 74.74% -0.073 0.9269
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 622 60.84% 44.42 5.657 75.08% -0.643 0.3982
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3132 58.49% 47.03 8.28 70.02% -0.751 0.4076
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 825 29.65% 28.12 -1.793 90.06% -0.326 -0.7785
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 466 37.42% 36.67 0.281 85.84% -0.818 -0.0154
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 571 43.43% 40.29 3.598 88.79% 0.295 0.7314
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 717 64.16% 41.65 4.369 69.18% -0.676 0.5637
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 548 64.05% 45.8 8.281 71.35% -0.25 0.8924
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 309 80.91% 44.62 5.71 47.57% -1.146 0.989
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1070 81.12% 48.0 9.083 39.53% -1.803 0.1672

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 35 14.29% 28.2 88.57% -0.434 0.0615 0.228
Blitz 0 1028 39.66% 29.17 73.83% 0.279 0.7226 -1.053
Dahan Insurrection 4 2062 21.49% 55.08 83.12% 0.583 0.6807 0.442
Despicable Theft 2 170 43.53% 34.68 75.29% -0.651 -0.1526 -0.146
Elemental Invocation 1 308 56.82% 31.92 66.56% -0.141 0.405 -0.969
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7436 17.21% 46.07 74.44% -0.058 0.1731 0.263
Powers Long Forgotten 1 571 64.37% 32.13 65.85% -1.292 -0.8844 -0.678
Rituals of Terror 3 537 39.4% 41.16 78.77% -0.19 -0.4258 -0.104
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 269 77.32% 35.66 59.48% 0.442 0.6677 -1.67
Second Wave 0 4392 40.58% 32.04 80.1% -0.655 0.0371 -0.131
Varied Terrains 2 69 49.28% 32.13 73.91% -0.113 0.6735 0.268
Ward the Shores 2 852 37.15% 34.56 67.49% -0.302 0.5792 -1.336

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3536 35.46 61.68% -1.301 0.6697 -0.528
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3660 37.31 64.84% -0.986 0.7921 -0.125
All Things Weaken 1789 34.01 54.67% -1.308 0.7404 -0.628
Back Against the Wall 3574 35.48 58.56% -1.208 0.7313 -0.681
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3187 32.6 58.27% -1.557 0.571 -0.735
Downward Spiral 5978 30.12 63.93% -1.404 0.5569 -0.566
Erosion of Will 3278 33.5 57.35% -1.559 0.5221 -0.813
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 886 38.28 76.98% -0.563 -0.0613 -0.143
Memory Fades to Dust 6071 30.14 61.42% -1.484 0.6574 -0.727
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1851 33.75 58.89% -1.81 0.1707 -0.681
Promising Farmlands 3507 32.33 57.88% -1.258 0.7634 -0.887
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 654 38.04 81.5% -0.647 -0.1501 -0.254
Thriving Communities 1903 33.41 58.7% -1.496 0.5628 -0.597
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.862
Unnatural Proliferation 1992 35.53 60.04% -1.47 0.4873 -0.582
Untended Land Crumbles 1825 33.14 58.19% -1.502 0.5312 -0.558

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60299 38.76% 34.12 78.96% 0.215 0.9513 0.031
B 64056 38.17% 34.18 79.43% -0.071 0.6261 0.033
C 61071 38.39% 34.39 79.61% 0.07 0.5393 0.088
D 57820 38.24% 33.77 79.49% -0.016 0.6932 0.001
E 22726 43.66% 35.63 76.53% -0.02 0.5242 -0.077
F 31064 40.16% 35.21 78.68% -0.108 0.5537 -0.052
G 29309 40.02% 35.05 78.75% -0.045 0.5855 -0.003
H 29435 40.44% 34.91 78.51% 0.016 0.681 -0.044

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4042 0.0% 21.81 77.24% -1.558 0.671 0.32
Not Using Events or Tokens 14680 33.18% 26.89 82.04% -0.139 0.088 -0.31
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3703 13.46% 36.16 91.76% 0.691 -0.2891 0.603
Start of Game Growth 5650 15.13% 35.17 90.88% 0.588 0.1313 0.335
Unlimited Undo 11728 33.36% 35.55 86.32% 0.792 0.241 0.994
Using Tokens but Not Events 13711 21.73% 32.11 88.97% 0.251 0.4057 -0.126

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12355 22.65 18.66%
II 41834 31.08 73.24%
III 45423 34.66 92.22%
IV 19087 37.91 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2303
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 40495
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29022
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18891
Lose: Invader deck ran out 691
Lose: Adversary condition 9301
Win: Sacrifice victory 211
Lose: Scenario condition 2114
Win: Scenario condition 2892
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11799
Lose: Spirit destroyed 980

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)