Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 603 28.36% 29.16 -1.35 90.38% -0.177 0.1126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 482 35.76% 33.49 1.011 88.38% -0.201 0.2126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 627 59.29% 37.53 3.073 75.76% -0.937 -0.0537
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 764 67.98% 36.97 2.736 64.27% -1.485 -0.2425
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 535 83.74% 37.96 3.602 50.47% -1.849 -0.3523
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 176 80.68% 41.63 5.413 51.14% -1.804 0.1345
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 677 81.83% 39.1 3.99 36.48% -2.509 -0.4665
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2844 22.44% 26.4 -2.476 93.64% 0.265 0.3063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2313 29.95% 31.19 -0.107 92.04% 0.209 0.1904
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3305 36.52% 39.59 4.136 90.62% 0.084 0.0979
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2803 39.47% 46.6 7.512 88.62% -0.15 0.133
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2303 36.85% 49.39 9.089 89.41% -0.157 0.2022
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 947 54.91% 52.54 10.563 76.77% -0.849 -0.024
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1879 74.4% 48.85 8.704 60.19% -1.569 -0.3298
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3386 17.24% 27.22 -1.991 91.46% -0.226 0.1043
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1748 27.96% 34.21 1.512 84.15% -0.726 -0.2097
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1966 47.92% 32.85 0.885 70.5% -1.341 -0.367
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2312 56.16% 35.29 2.038 54.67% -2.073 -0.4935
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2157 51.84% 41.73 5.247 61.98% -1.835 -0.34
The Kingdom of England 5 9 712 69.38% 38.8 3.781 36.94% -2.721 -0.6506
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3815 53.04% 47.54 7.688 48.2% -2.522 -0.2777
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1423 33.94% 29.78 -1.048 87.07% -0.412 0.1
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 867 55.27% 30.95 -0.221 76.82% -0.786 0.1165
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1914 43.79% 35.69 1.94 59.67% -2.03 0.1107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1996 56.22% 41.96 5.125 57.87% -1.914 0.2842
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1810 48.95% 47.16 7.579 60.94% -1.924 0.237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1357 51.99% 55.91 11.381 71.63% -1.064 0.7533
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3969 55.27% 53.79 10.862 57.14% -1.987 0.1039
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1648 27.26% 24.86 -3.235 90.05% -0.103 -0.0141
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1270 27.91% 31.04 -0.295 91.81% 0.151 0.1862
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1830 35.8% 32.85 0.702 87.27% -0.261 -0.0233
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1740 46.91% 41.13 4.908 85.75% -0.306 -0.0153
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1208 57.61% 40.92 4.862 76.49% -0.859 -0.0776
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 526 62.64% 44.43 6.603 75.1% -0.804 0.364
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2489 56.73% 46.38 7.289 69.83% -1.248 -0.1257
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 489 29.51% 27.11 -2.676 93.66% 0.258 0.1693
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 278 32.85% 35.8 1.417 87.77% -0.37 0.4086
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 363 40.5% 39.0 3.362 88.43% -0.304 0.1078
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 491 65.38% 40.47 4.32 68.84% -1.259 -0.0151
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 384 62.76% 44.67 6.248 68.75% -1.363 -0.2548
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 206 80.1% 45.1 6.414 48.06% -2.009 -0.0246
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 646 81.11% 48.35 7.895 41.95% -2.414 -0.5421

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1037 44.54% 28.03 -2.666 69.43% -0.746 -0.1801
Dahan Insurrection 4 2036 23.39% 54.32 10.439 82.47% -0.247 0.1538
Despicable Theft 2 82 42.68% 33.34 0.331 76.83% -0.81 -0.5361
Elemental Invocation 1 183 55.74% 32.61 -1.147 65.03% -0.609 -0.1063
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7485 16.21% 44.5 4.009 73.8% -0.623 -0.258
Powers Long Forgotten 1 669 63.53% 32.06 -0.505 64.72% -0.814 -0.3681
Rituals of Terror 3 586 39.04% 40.56 4.317 79.35% -0.392 0.2534
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 287 74.22% 35.27 1.321 59.93% -0.874 -0.2274
Second Wave 0 4495 42.24% 31.91 -0.452 79.02% -0.559 -0.129
Ward the Shores 2 832 38.53% 34.43 0.146 66.95% -1.291 -0.259

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2834 35.22 -0.747 61.71% -1.416 0.6535
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2848 36.8 0.126 65.1% -1.247 0.6655
All Things Weaken 1103 33.24 -1.672 53.58% -1.782 0.3771
Back Against the Wall 2765 35.27 -0.766 58.55% -1.558 0.5287
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2508 32.73 -2.046 58.85% -1.546 0.6763
Downward Spiral 4809 29.77 -2.331 63.92% -1.519 0.5022
Erosion of Will 2556 33.52 -1.52 58.18% -1.618 0.5895
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 567 38.46 0.876 75.84% -0.722 -0.0429
Memory Fades to Dust 4773 29.58 -2.447 61.18% -1.684 0.5313
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1158 33.17 -1.656 58.98% -1.605 0.416
Promising Farmlands 2797 31.83 -2.296 58.31% -1.667 0.5411
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 398 37.78 0.579 81.16% -0.48 -0.0685
Thriving Communities 1185 33.1 -1.679 57.97% -1.559 0.5294
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.671 51.4% -1.906 0.3191
Unnatural Proliferation 1298 35.45 -0.543 60.32% -1.446 0.6343
Untended Land Crumbles 1135 32.91 -1.781 58.24% -1.626 0.4764

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 47996 38.14% 33.76 -0.109 79.18% -0.023 -0.7109
B 51463 37.87% 33.83 -0.078 79.39% -0.005 -0.7888
C 48695 38.01% 33.96 0.087 79.52% 0.065 -0.9474
D 46426 37.86% 33.46 -0.314 79.4% -0.009 -0.7867
E 14172 43.88% 35.53 0.15 76.32% -0.028 -0.922
F 22427 39.56% 35.26 0.154 79.03% 0.026 -0.8152
G 21175 39.22% 35.23 0.244 78.89% 0.041 -0.7913
H 21345 39.38% 35.04 0.064 78.77% -0.026 -0.8649

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3247 0.0% 20.58 -4.884 76.16% -1.96 0.0933
Not Using Events or Tokens 11961 33.66% 26.68 -2.58 81.53% -0.209 0.0053
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2652 13.65% 35.47 1.633 91.59% 0.414 -0.272
Start of Game Growth 4217 15.51% 34.37 0.914 90.82% 0.517 0.0483
Unlimited Undo 8429 34.39% 35.15 0.727 85.45% 0.408 -0.0154
Using Tokens but Not Events 10376 22.23% 31.12 -1.121 88.55% 0.176 0.1252

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9643 22.37 19.27%
II 32169 30.88 73.61%
III 34978 34.39 92.29%
IV 14443 37.55 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1462
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17305
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11329
Lose: Invader deck ran out 539
Lose: Adversary condition 7021
Win: Sacrifice victory 157
Lose: Scenario condition 1752
Win: Scenario condition 2232
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8999
Lose: Spirit destroyed 754

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)