Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 520 29.62% 29.06 -1.351 90.58% -0.123 0.1582
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 425 37.26% 33.23 0.917 88.0% -0.212 0.1776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 528 59.32% 37.52 3.101 75.76% -0.909 -0.039
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 648 66.72% 36.73 2.62 63.43% -1.523 -0.2662
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 410 82.68% 37.37 3.333 48.78% -1.909 -0.3801
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 137 77.37% 41.36 5.199 50.36% -1.863 0.1628
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 553 80.83% 38.96 3.945 36.17% -2.515 -0.4449
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2599 22.57% 26.45 -2.446 93.65% 0.292 0.3298
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2040 30.46% 31.11 -0.115 91.91% 0.219 0.1887
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2944 36.45% 39.34 4.067 90.29% 0.073 0.0776
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2514 40.26% 46.4 7.457 88.46% -0.131 0.1601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2078 37.23% 49.29 9.067 89.27% -0.15 0.2107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 873 55.44% 52.46 10.553 76.52% -0.837 -0.0088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1659 75.11% 48.6 8.656 59.92% -1.541 -0.2959
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3185 17.06% 27.3 -1.921 91.65% -0.182 0.1496
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1602 27.74% 34.36 1.617 84.52% -0.684 -0.1835
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1764 48.14% 32.7 0.824 69.56% -1.355 -0.3857
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2031 55.7% 35.19 1.993 54.21% -2.079 -0.5001
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1897 52.57% 41.69 5.265 61.89% -1.797 -0.2956
The Kingdom of England 5 9 643 69.36% 39.03 3.958 37.33% -2.651 -0.5815
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3374 53.25% 47.11 7.531 47.18% -2.533 -0.2812
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1306 34.69% 29.55 -1.108 86.52% -0.422 0.1028
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 817 55.23% 31.05 -0.168 76.74% -0.769 0.1243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1764 44.17% 35.58 1.89 59.18% -2.024 0.1049
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1852 55.51% 41.89 5.098 57.67% -1.912 0.275
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1615 47.68% 47.64 7.78 61.8% -1.877 0.2657
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1108 53.12% 54.83 10.984 69.13% -1.194 0.6294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3463 54.97% 54.07 11.039 57.7% -1.943 0.173
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1506 27.27% 24.86 -3.238 89.58% -0.141 -0.0524
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1156 26.94% 31.15 -0.241 91.87% 0.159 0.1783
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1645 36.39% 32.82 0.695 86.87% -0.262 -0.0395
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1561 46.84% 41.23 4.997 86.03% -0.253 0.0332
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1100 57.44% 41.03 4.906 76.73% -0.83 -0.0627
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 500 62.5% 44.32 6.561 74.6% -0.824 0.3367
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2268 55.59% 46.4 7.32 69.84% -1.228 -0.095
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 397 28.72% 26.97 -2.676 94.21% 0.348 0.2282
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 219 33.94% 34.31 1.002 87.67% -0.334 0.3841
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 281 40.57% 38.72 3.311 88.61% -0.236 0.2058
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 401 65.84% 39.97 4.053 67.58% -1.315 -0.0638
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 273 64.84% 43.68 5.749 66.67% -1.42 -0.2965
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 166 82.53% 42.77 5.294 42.77% -2.138 -0.0917
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 522 83.14% 47.0 7.326 39.66% -2.492 -0.5574

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 944 44.38% 27.77 -2.819 67.9% -0.833 -0.2516
Dahan Insurrection 4 1782 24.73% 53.83 10.184 81.14% -0.311 0.0922
Despicable Theft 2 46 39.13% 34.17 0.752 80.43% -0.632 -0.282
Elemental Invocation 1 127 55.91% 33.54 -0.619 70.08% -0.376 -0.004
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6696 15.59% 43.64 3.669 73.06% -0.684 -0.3194
Powers Long Forgotten 1 624 64.11% 31.76 -0.652 63.94% -0.836 -0.3949
Rituals of Terror 3 541 39.33% 40.14 4.137 79.11% -0.406 0.2282
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 273 74.73% 35.08 1.23 58.97% -0.863 -0.2223
Second Wave 0 4158 42.67% 31.97 -0.413 78.79% -0.551 -0.1268
Ward the Shores 2 780 37.63% 34.13 0.095 67.69% -1.295 -0.2532

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2553 35.15 -0.767 61.93% -1.418 0.6526
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2558 36.41 -0.042 64.58% -1.287 0.6343
All Things Weaken 883 32.69 -1.898 52.43% -1.827 0.3269
Back Against the Wall 2495 35.16 -0.791 58.72% -1.572 0.5243
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2230 32.64 -2.066 58.88% -1.558 0.6675
Downward Spiral 4412 29.56 -2.395 63.69% -1.535 0.4837
Erosion of Will 2311 33.47 -1.543 58.07% -1.627 0.5836
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 449 38.16 0.79 75.28% -0.748 -0.0542
Memory Fades to Dust 4330 29.38 -2.519 60.65% -1.711 0.5043
Power Corrodes the Spirit 927 33.33 -1.502 60.84% -1.53 0.4869
Promising Farmlands 2560 31.64 -2.372 57.97% -1.688 0.5258
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 315 37.91 0.675 81.59% -0.443 -0.0132
Thriving Communities 929 32.93 -1.701 58.56% -1.539 0.5572
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.683 51.4% -1.912 0.3089
Unnatural Proliferation 1015 35.24 -0.616 60.1% -1.463 0.6234
Untended Land Crumbles 903 32.57 -1.898 58.03% -1.639 0.4575

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 43351 38.17% 33.63 -0.147 79.02% -0.034 -1.1356
B 46725 37.85% 33.74 -0.104 79.2% -0.013 -1.2088
C 44047 37.95% 33.86 0.095 79.38% 0.072 -1.3568
D 42080 37.79% 33.4 -0.288 79.34% -0.001 -1.1923
E 11056 44.52% 35.38 0.124 76.0% -0.031 -1.3298
F 19140 39.56% 35.21 0.153 78.82% 0.018 -1.2362
G 18081 39.47% 35.24 0.285 78.86% 0.061 -1.1818
H 18325 39.45% 35.08 0.107 78.66% -0.027 -1.2841

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2925 0.0% 20.8 -4.797 76.65% -1.919 0.1297
Not Using Events or Tokens 10835 34.1% 26.57 -2.628 81.52% -0.208 0.0127
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2354 13.31% 35.87 1.763 91.59% 0.403 -0.3017
Start of Game Growth 3745 15.5% 34.67 1.022 91.03% 0.556 0.1042
Unlimited Undo 7391 34.2% 35.08 0.685 85.48% 0.406 -0.0114
Using Tokens but Not Events 9178 22.73% 30.83 -1.184 87.98% 0.148 0.0965

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8662 22.33 19.29%
II 28535 30.75 73.52%
III 30993 34.25 92.31%
IV 12745 37.47 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1275
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20816
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14789
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9648
Lose: Invader deck ran out 473
Lose: Adversary condition 6193
Win: Sacrifice victory 137
Lose: Scenario condition 1622
Win: Scenario condition 1970
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8033
Lose: Spirit destroyed 691

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)