Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 237 28.69% 35.42 67.51% -0.496 -0.5356 0.836
Blitz 0 1669 34.46% 26.98 65.55% -0.658 -0.391 -0.697
Dahan Insurrection 4 2784 21.08% 51.65 77.66% 0.55 0.2014 0.813
Despicable Theft 2 355 39.55% 29.4 62.82% -0.119 0.6409 -0.465
Elemental Invocation 1 799 43.18% 28.75 59.57% -0.462 0.1996 -0.971
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10685 17.85% 44.87 71.94% 0.483 -0.1396 0.757
Powers Long Forgotten 1 880 55.54% 26.54 54.55% -1.223 -0.4192 -0.677
Rituals of Terror 3 796 35.27% 34.57 65.7% -0.402 -0.4289 -0.174
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 388 68.3% 31.33 54.38% -1.664 -0.8019 -1.137
Second Wave 0 6739 38.8% 32.79 77.68% -0.139 0.0746 0.216
Varied Terrains 2 395 50.63% 26.74 57.22% -0.726 0.1227 -0.461
Ward the Shores 2 1125 36.43% 31.0 60.62% -0.89 0.2044 -0.916

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4755 34.42 59.5% 0.265 0.2713 0.231
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4848 36.9 64.27% 0.487 0.3619 0.549
All Things Weaken 3070 32.63 53.16% -0.127 0.0572 0.058
Attenuated Essence 739 33.54 57.1% 0.047 0.0127 0.223
Back Against the Wall 4834 35.32 58.61% 0.413 0.4186 0.137
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 746 30.29 48.93% -0.598 -0.4915 -0.213
Burn Brightest Before the End 750 33.45 52.67% 0.307 0.3206 -0.106
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4390 31.37 56.24% 0.032 0.1833 -0.007
Downward Spiral 8289 28.74 61.09% -0.127 -0.0684 0.203
Erosion of Will 4547 32.62 56.08% 0.084 0.1919 0.009
Intensifying Exploitation 793 30.83 52.71% 0.206 0.3159 -0.076
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1483 35.87 73.7% 0.908 0.3059 0.377
Memory Fades to Dust 8278 28.74 58.76% -0.14 0.0715 0.079
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3057 31.74 55.71% 0.082 0.1991 -0.008
Promising Farmlands 4789 31.31 55.92% -0.061 0.1294 -0.136
Shattered Fragments of Power 751 34.26 54.33% 0.156 0.1562 -0.162
Slow Dissolution of Will 724 31.29 49.03% 0.02 0.3204 -0.219
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1071 35.68 77.96% 0.673 -0.0572 0.361
The Border of Life and Death 229 31.63 68.56% 0.573 0.1462 0.541
Thriving Communities 3159 31.64 56.47% -0.144 -0.0349 0.083
Thriving Crops 420 31.88 55.24% 0.408 0.101 -0.13
Tipping Point 1250 31.51 51.36% -0.184
Unnatural Proliferation 3276 34.68 58.73% 0.389 0.461 0.162
Untended Land Crumbles 3066 31.41 54.76% -0.163 0.0076 0.064

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 90851 37.91% 31.48 72.06% -0.017 0.9676 0.018
B 94513 37.52% 31.61 72.54% -0.032 0.863 0.021
C 91397 37.61% 31.74 72.46% 0.008 0.7212 0.098
D 85386 37.9% 31.06 72.3% -0.148 0.7585 -0.057
E 43837 41.64% 32.02 68.39% 0.022 0.7377 -0.008
F 53134 39.24% 32.0 70.98% 0.031 0.8613 -0.06
G 49128 39.62% 31.91 70.86% -0.004 0.7859 0.008
H 49403 39.7% 31.93 70.87% 0.1 0.8847 -0.038

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6109 0.0% 21.12 71.71% -0.066 0.5761 -0.098
Not Using Events or Tokens 21388 31.52% 23.58 72.69% -0.369 0.0813 -0.617
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6022 12.67% 37.87 86.62% 1.307 0.5262 1.291
Start of Game Growth 9050 14.61% 35.51 83.75% -0.191 -0.644 0.107
Unlimited Undo 19748 30.67% 32.08 75.99% -0.376 -0.399 0.424
Using Tokens but Not Events 21359 22.47% 30.68 82.25% 0.356 0.2847 -0.31

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31609 13.9 9.2%
II 60500 30.22 69.73%
III 65946 34.83 91.62%
IV 27979 38.62 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2906
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 58764
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 40222
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27721
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 16883
Lose: Invader deck ran out 948
Lose: Adversary condition 13561
Win: Sacrifice victory 294
Lose: Scenario condition 2638
Win: Scenario condition 3447
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17252
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1398

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-06 18:00:06 (Pacific Time)