Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 20.0% 23.93 93.33% 0.094 -0.1083
Blitz 0 962 40.57% 28.66 72.66% -0.588 -0.3302 -1.207
Dahan Insurrection 4 1980 21.58% 54.92 82.93% -0.813 -0.4004 0.471
Despicable Theft 2 147 42.18% 34.85 76.87% -0.811 -0.3645 0.143
Elemental Invocation 1 269 57.99% 32.02 65.06% -0.824 -0.3386 -0.896
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7035 17.29% 45.79 74.07% -0.775 -0.4698 0.304
Powers Long Forgotten 1 550 64.84% 32.01 65.64% -0.558 -0.3759 -0.678
Rituals of Terror 3 512 39.17% 41.13 79.1% 0.185 0.3066 0.005
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 263 77.95% 35.5 58.56% -0.743 -0.3281 -1.773
Second Wave 0 4148 41.26% 31.72 79.94% -0.712 -0.1467 -0.109
Varied Terrains 2 44 43.18% 30.27 75.0% -1.059 -0.5329 -0.016
Ward the Shores 2 778 34.5% 35.16 70.57% -0.823 0.3388 -1.326

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3372 35.27 61.63% -1.315 0.588 -0.54
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3456 37.09 64.7% -1.374 0.3559 -0.107
All Things Weaken 1593 33.57 53.92% -2.022 -0.0366 -0.591
Back Against the Wall 3387 35.32 58.58% -1.901 -0.0843 -0.595
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2999 32.53 58.25% -1.585 0.4652 -0.724
Downward Spiral 5671 29.95 63.94% -1.448 0.5445 -0.523
Erosion of Will 3095 33.43 57.42% -2.019 0.0645 -0.729
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 794 37.77 76.7% -0.447 -0.0059 -0.092
Memory Fades to Dust 5754 29.95 61.26% -1.449 0.6348 -0.72
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1666 33.8 60.08% -1.459 0.4792 -0.582
Promising Farmlands 3296 32.02 57.8% -1.813 0.233 -0.903
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 568 37.85 82.22% -0.613 -0.1886 -0.08
Thriving Communities 1696 33.16 58.67% -1.302 0.6814 -0.493
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.826
Unnatural Proliferation 1811 35.46 60.46% -1.711 0.2534 -0.513
Untended Land Crumbles 1658 33.0 58.32% -1.609 0.3837 -0.521

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 57088 38.66% 33.93 78.94% -0.011 0.7862 0.038
B 60797 38.08% 34.0 79.43% -0.009 0.7347 0.042
C 57897 38.21% 34.2 79.59% 0.109 0.6777 0.067
D 54992 38.12% 33.62 79.48% 0.113 0.9084 -0.007
E 20598 43.49% 35.41 76.46% -0.205 0.4422 -0.078
F 28895 39.98% 35.09 78.8% 0.017 0.741 -0.052
G 27254 39.75% 34.98 78.95% 0.098 0.8297 0.005
H 27337 40.04% 34.83 78.71% -0.077 0.6355 -0.039

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3855 0.0% 21.42 77.04% -1.287 0.8418 0.286
Not Using Events or Tokens 14042 33.38% 26.8 81.92% 0.313 0.4883 -0.344
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3358 13.35% 35.0 91.75% 0.534 0.3922 -0.522
Start of Game Growth 5205 15.25% 34.25 90.8% -0.026 -0.7869 0.103
Unlimited Undo 10866 33.79% 35.4 86.06% 0.292 -0.3122 1.036
Using Tokens but Not Events 12824 21.68% 31.84 89.04% 0.717 0.5604 -0.033

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11618 22.56 18.76%
II 39336 30.98 73.26%
III 42788 34.53 92.25%
IV 17950 37.77 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2178
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 38125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27255
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17761
Lose: Invader deck ran out 644
Lose: Adversary condition 8635
Win: Sacrifice victory 200
Lose: Scenario condition 2051
Win: Scenario condition 2794
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11134
Lose: Spirit destroyed 915

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)