Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 555 29.55% 29.09 -1.352 90.45% -0.151 0.1268
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 448 36.47% 33.29 0.917 87.95% -0.24 0.1534
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 564 59.0% 37.76 3.215 76.6% -0.883 -0.0048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 700 68.05% 36.91 2.728 64.29% -1.492 -0.2402
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 464 83.19% 37.4 3.352 48.71% -1.923 -0.4011
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 148 79.05% 41.14 5.117 50.0% -1.886 0.0907
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 590 81.19% 38.92 3.926 36.1% -2.536 -0.4859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2725 22.29% 26.44 -2.447 93.76% 0.291 0.332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2156 30.41% 31.16 -0.1 92.07% 0.228 0.1989
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3125 36.53% 39.37 4.072 90.4% 0.065 0.0699
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2652 40.05% 46.44 7.468 88.46% -0.151 0.1375
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2174 37.01% 49.34 9.093 89.37% -0.157 0.2108
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 892 55.49% 52.59 10.604 76.91% -0.827 0.0019
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1744 74.48% 48.94 8.784 60.49% -1.538 -0.2968
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3292 17.21% 27.25 -1.95 91.56% -0.206 0.1268
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1662 27.52% 34.32 1.597 84.48% -0.704 -0.1998
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1855 47.77% 32.8 0.875 70.08% -1.358 -0.3893
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2156 55.93% 35.32 2.074 54.78% -2.068 -0.4901
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1996 51.81% 41.76 5.276 62.07% -1.823 -0.3251
The Kingdom of England 5 9 663 68.78% 39.13 3.985 37.56% -2.677 -0.6099
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3566 53.07% 47.32 7.613 47.67% -2.532 -0.2775
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1367 34.46% 29.58 -1.109 86.61% -0.433 0.0818
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 837 55.22% 30.95 -0.206 76.46% -0.798 0.0981
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1826 43.99% 35.77 1.982 59.91% -2.009 0.1278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1931 56.04% 41.95 5.134 57.9% -1.907 0.2783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1709 48.04% 47.33 7.671 61.15% -1.915 0.2317
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1201 52.67% 55.38 11.184 70.36% -1.143 0.6774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3691 55.15% 53.91 10.954 57.38% -1.971 0.1362
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1574 27.14% 24.85 -3.235 89.77% -0.133 -0.0477
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1196 27.3% 31.13 -0.247 91.97% 0.161 0.1824
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1747 36.21% 32.82 0.698 87.12% -0.264 -0.0326
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1633 46.86% 41.22 4.988 85.98% -0.274 0.0125
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1134 57.4% 41.06 4.932 76.9% -0.836 -0.0585
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 515 63.21% 44.4 6.611 74.95% -0.799 0.3581
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2335 55.71% 46.51 7.362 70.11% -1.231 -0.1
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 452 29.71% 26.96 -2.683 93.58% 0.249 0.1427
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 241 33.75% 34.25 0.979 87.55% -0.354 0.3889
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 316 40.19% 38.67 3.28 88.61% -0.282 0.1496
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 444 65.09% 40.06 4.12 67.79% -1.333 -0.0844
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 330 63.33% 43.91 5.909 67.27% -1.437 -0.3104
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 185 81.62% 43.56 5.661 44.86% -2.106 -0.0868
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 578 81.66% 47.99 7.756 41.52% -2.448 -0.5425

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 980 44.91% 28.0 -2.736 68.37% -0.801 -0.2279
Dahan Insurrection 4 1894 24.21% 53.88 10.22 81.52% -0.302 0.0979
Despicable Theft 2 66 37.88% 33.26 0.364 80.3% -0.825 -0.5424
Elemental Invocation 1 165 55.76% 32.56 -1.224 64.24% -0.663 -0.2239
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7028 15.91% 44.14 3.872 73.53% -0.642 -0.2759
Powers Long Forgotten 1 646 63.94% 31.85 -0.603 64.09% -0.837 -0.3955
Rituals of Terror 3 561 38.82% 40.16 4.166 79.32% -0.407 0.237
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 282 74.47% 35.16 1.259 59.57% -0.869 -0.2274
Second Wave 0 4317 42.29% 31.92 -0.432 79.04% -0.554 -0.126
Ward the Shores 2 797 37.96% 34.22 0.15 67.75% -1.289 -0.2517

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2663 35.14 -0.786 61.73% -1.423 0.6502
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2675 36.53 0.019 64.67% -1.283 0.6364
All Things Weaken 979 32.77 -1.848 53.52% -1.808 0.3503
Back Against the Wall 2618 35.29 -0.727 59.01% -1.549 0.545
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2343 32.59 -2.1 58.6% -1.57 0.6545
Downward Spiral 4596 29.66 -2.365 63.97% -1.524 0.4975
Erosion of Will 2412 33.46 -1.549 57.92% -1.635 0.5738
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 505 38.08 0.741 75.64% -0.747 -0.0542
Memory Fades to Dust 4507 29.42 -2.508 60.84% -1.705 0.5133
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1029 33.3 -1.554 60.06% -1.567 0.4543
Promising Farmlands 2661 31.77 -2.316 58.29% -1.675 0.5391
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 352 37.76 0.59 81.53% -0.479 -0.0681
Thriving Communities 1047 33.17 -1.583 59.03% -1.531 0.5625
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.677 51.4% -1.91 0.3156
Unnatural Proliferation 1126 35.64 -0.437 61.28% -1.421 0.6684
Untended Land Crumbles 994 32.44 -1.936 58.25% -1.649 0.4567

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 45449 38.05% 33.68 -0.132 79.21% -0.029 -1.1412
B 48813 37.76% 33.77 -0.096 79.38% -0.009 -1.2172
C 46142 37.95% 33.88 0.073 79.46% 0.058 -1.3808
D 44035 37.78% 33.44 -0.29 79.45% -0.007 -1.2088
E 12503 43.89% 35.51 0.179 76.53% -0.016 -1.3286
F 20573 39.39% 35.19 0.137 79.07% 0.016 -1.2494
G 19426 39.06% 35.22 0.26 79.11% 0.049 -1.2077
H 19691 39.21% 35.06 0.099 78.95% -0.019 -1.2846

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3063 0.0% 20.81 -4.794 76.89% -1.932 0.1224
Not Using Events or Tokens 11353 33.74% 26.66 -2.592 81.78% -0.201 0.0166
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2508 13.25% 35.77 1.747 91.75% 0.414 -0.2792
Start of Game Growth 3997 15.17% 34.54 0.987 91.19% 0.565 0.1022
Unlimited Undo 7774 34.1% 34.97 0.648 85.53% 0.388 -0.0326
Using Tokens but Not Events 9668 22.69% 30.92 -1.156 88.18% 0.155 0.1031

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9041 22.34 19.39%
II 30158 30.81 73.73%
III 32809 34.31 92.3%
IV 13536 37.5 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1357
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22442
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 15974
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10430
Lose: Invader deck ran out 500
Lose: Adversary condition 6534
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 1668
Win: Scenario condition 2080
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8410
Lose: Spirit destroyed 714

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)