Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 56 26.79% 28.0 78.57% 0.392 0.3083 1.051
Blitz 0 1114 39.54% 28.99 72.44% -0.203 -0.0294 -1.08
Dahan Insurrection 4 2162 21.05% 54.52 82.47% -0.257 -0.4061 0.444
Despicable Theft 2 184 44.81% 33.59 72.83% -0.6 0.0539 -0.284
Elemental Invocation 1 368 54.89% 31.16 65.49% -0.479 0.2262 -0.829
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7920 17.57% 46.04 74.08% 0.609 0.0034 0.338
Powers Long Forgotten 1 600 63.59% 31.61 65.33% -0.337 0.1577 -0.676
Rituals of Terror 3 560 39.93% 40.88 77.5% -0.871 -0.9536 -0.102
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 278 75.9% 34.97 58.63% -1.073 -0.1457 -1.749
Second Wave 0 4715 39.43% 32.36 80.06% 0.276 0.3377 -0.141
Varied Terrains 2 107 44.86% 31.91 72.9% 0.125 0.7013 0.319
Ward the Shores 2 885 36.78% 33.99 66.67% -1.059 0.1372 -1.266

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3697 35.25 61.48% 0.015 0.3296 -0.431
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3831 37.29 64.87% 0.286 0.4194 -0.017
All Things Weaken 1972 33.68 54.31% -0.223 0.2991 -0.514
Attenuated Essence 61 33.85 62.3% 0.464 0.8244 0.086
Back Against the Wall 3748 35.63 58.88% 0.767 1.017 -0.537
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 33.6 52.08% -0.044 0.5093 -0.564
Burn Brightest Before the End 73 32.01 50.68% -0.244 0.1907 -0.758
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3332 32.51 58.1% -0.033 0.5659 -0.65
Downward Spiral 6258 29.95 63.61% -0.194 0.2113 -0.458
Erosion of Will 3437 33.43 57.03% -0.199 0.3372 -0.69
Intensifying Exploitation 78 30.18 51.28% -0.095 0.4198 -0.56
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 966 38.13 76.81% 0.522 0.0799 -0.041
Memory Fades to Dust 6301 30.1 61.36% -0.012 0.5219 -0.604
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2026 33.35 58.19% -0.351 0.0015 -0.557
Promising Farmlands 3685 32.26 57.53% -0.294 0.3803 -0.742
Shattered Fragments of Power 66 33.91 59.09% 0.187 0.4883 -0.576
Slow Dissolution of Will 69 37.26 53.62% -0.282 0.3654 -0.759
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 730 37.82 80.82% 0.829 0.1627 -0.057
The Border of Life and Death 19 26.26 68.42% 0.269 0.2441 -0.603
Thriving Communities 2089 33.34 58.26% -0.093 0.4838 -0.463
Thriving Crops 31 31.0 38.71% -0.77 -0.5225 -1.285
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.764
Unnatural Proliferation 2162 35.49 59.9% 0.212 0.5886 -0.415
Untended Land Crumbles 1988 32.98 57.9% -0.122 0.3084 -0.459

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 63876 38.62% 33.9 78.18% -0.037 0.8219 0.012
B 67643 38.1% 33.95 78.69% -0.007 0.7724 0.046
C 64712 38.19% 34.16 78.87% 0.035 0.6875 0.102
D 61172 38.23% 33.51 78.71% -0.021 0.7944 -0.001
E 25283 43.31% 35.14 75.26% 0.035 0.6756 -0.068
F 33682 40.04% 34.84 77.64% -0.018 0.7143 -0.054
G 31698 40.07% 34.66 77.62% -0.02 0.7362 0.022
H 31820 40.5% 34.53 77.4% -0.01 0.6575 -0.082

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4251 0.0% 21.79 76.88% -0.225 0.7375 -0.06
Not Using Events or Tokens 15332 32.99% 26.63 81.44% -0.044 0.255 -0.346
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4055 12.77% 36.74 90.75% 0.817 0.2825 1.155
Start of Game Growth 6142 14.71% 35.45 89.45% -0.376 -0.7296 -0.04
Unlimited Undo 12730 32.7% 35.24 85.19% 0.209 0.1759 0.914
Using Tokens but Not Events 14816 21.58% 32.08 88.07% 0.351 0.2899 -0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14228 21.26 17.02%
II 44348 31.05 72.89%
III 48019 34.73 92.18%
IV 20159 38.01 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2420
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42835
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30644
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19957
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1405
Lose: Invader deck ran out 730
Lose: Adversary condition 9888
Win: Sacrifice victory 229
Lose: Scenario condition 2201
Win: Scenario condition 2976
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12440
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1029

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-25 04:12:57 (Pacific Time)