Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 23 13.04% 28.39 95.65% 0.178 0.2867
Blitz 0 984 40.06% 28.64 72.97% -0.422 -0.1547 -1.196
Dahan Insurrection 4 2007 21.54% 54.91 82.96% -0.478 -0.1456 0.456
Despicable Theft 2 152 42.11% 35.11 76.97% -0.607 -0.3564 0.137
Elemental Invocation 1 279 58.06% 31.86 65.59% -0.619 0.0298 -0.919
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7163 17.3% 45.88 74.19% -0.305 -0.1395 0.291
Powers Long Forgotten 1 555 64.61% 32.11 65.95% -0.337 -0.0106 -0.689
Rituals of Terror 3 515 39.14% 41.09 79.03% -0.427 -0.5369 -0.009
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 263 77.95% 35.5 58.56% -0.897 -0.2399 -1.779
Second Wave 0 4204 41.09% 31.76 79.97% -0.534 -0.0635 -0.103
Varied Terrains 2 50 48.0% 30.5 72.0% -0.843 -0.3079 0.274
Ward the Shores 2 829 37.09% 34.56 67.19% -2.093 -0.9057 -1.36

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3415 35.39 61.7% -1.268 0.5637 -0.537
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3515 37.17 64.81% -0.957 0.6976 -0.105
All Things Weaken 1653 33.68 53.9% -1.907 0.0693 -0.636
Back Against the Wall 3443 35.36 58.55% -2.003 -0.1442 -0.621
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3048 32.59 58.37% -1.326 0.6484 -0.711
Downward Spiral 5760 30.03 64.1% -1.431 0.471 -0.539
Erosion of Will 3140 33.49 57.32% -1.592 0.4518 -0.75
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 818 37.92 77.02% -0.557 0.0149 -0.111
Memory Fades to Dust 5858 30.07 61.49% -1.206 0.7735 -0.723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1720 33.76 59.65% -1.539 0.3529 -0.61
Promising Farmlands 3368 32.07 57.6% -1.828 0.211 -0.917
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 601 37.99 82.03% -0.977 -0.5365 -0.119
Thriving Communities 1749 33.23 58.78% -1.435 0.5288 -0.534
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.838
Unnatural Proliferation 1860 35.56 60.32% -1.558 0.3475 -0.515
Untended Land Crumbles 1697 33.15 58.57% -1.563 0.4718 -0.526

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 58034 38.74% 34.0 78.91% -0.117 0.6515 0.034
B 61789 38.08% 34.08 79.46% 0.053 0.7453 0.026
C 58840 38.21% 34.28 79.64% -0.007 0.5571 0.075
D 55843 38.1% 33.69 79.56% 0.24 1.0087 -0.001
E 21164 43.51% 35.5 76.56% -0.009 0.5904 -0.083
F 29516 40.07% 35.14 78.81% 0.119 0.8289 -0.054
G 27844 39.81% 35.0 78.88% -0.084 0.642 0.003
H 27956 40.16% 34.87 78.66% -0.163 0.5269 -0.024

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3905 0.0% 21.63 77.18% -0.922 1.0896 0.282
Not Using Events or Tokens 14221 33.23% 26.87 82.04% 0.053 0.2677 -0.292
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3461 13.56% 35.3 91.68% 0.16 0.0666 -0.197
Start of Game Growth 5356 15.14% 34.56 90.83% 0.153 -0.5544 0.124
Unlimited Undo 11146 33.62% 35.45 86.16% 0.27 -0.4299 1.004
Using Tokens but Not Events 13051 21.71% 31.93 89.0% 0.119 0.0734 -0.045

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11820 22.6 18.71%
II 40083 31.02 73.31%
III 43551 34.59 92.26%
IV 18290 37.83 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2209
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 38818
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27804
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 18099
Lose: Invader deck ran out 656
Lose: Adversary condition 8818
Win: Sacrifice victory 203
Lose: Scenario condition 2069
Win: Scenario condition 2825
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11313
Lose: Spirit destroyed 930

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)