Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 68 26.47% 32.37 76.47% 0.575 0.3863 0.93
Blitz 0 1146 39.18% 28.72 71.99% -0.398 -0.2138 -1.034
Dahan Insurrection 4 2189 20.79% 54.35 82.23% -0.382 -0.6965 0.482
Despicable Theft 2 187 44.62% 33.54 72.73% -0.519 0.2261 -0.276
Elemental Invocation 1 394 53.81% 30.62 65.23% -0.352 0.4194 -0.856
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8093 17.42% 46.02 74.05% 0.773 0.1524 0.373
Powers Long Forgotten 1 605 63.23% 31.51 65.12% -0.304 0.2379 -0.666
Rituals of Terror 3 570 39.58% 40.67 77.19% -0.575 -0.4685 -0.088
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 280 75.71% 34.84 58.57% -0.83 0.1404 -1.73
Second Wave 0 4840 38.92% 32.44 80.19% 0.452 0.5197 -0.139
Varied Terrains 2 124 45.97% 31.01 70.97% -0.233 0.3404 0.355
Ward the Shores 2 894 36.97% 33.82 66.33% -1.161 -0.0272 -1.24

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3741 35.18 61.32% -0.007 0.1912 -0.366
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3872 37.25 64.7% 0.375 0.3088 0.035
All Things Weaken 2033 33.57 53.91% -0.184 0.1838 -0.49
Attenuated Essence 89 31.81 56.18% 0.335 0.4054 -0.013
Back Against the Wall 3804 35.57 58.94% 0.693 0.7622 -0.488
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 86 31.85 48.84% 0.062 0.3189 -0.929
Burn Brightest Before the End 121 33.37 53.72% 0.144 0.3193 -0.926
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3395 32.46 58.09% 0.183 0.6215 -0.598
Downward Spiral 6365 29.87 63.39% 0.044 0.2902 -0.412
Erosion of Will 3494 33.41 57.04% 0.359 0.677 -0.631
Intensifying Exploitation 111 30.04 50.45% 0.066 0.3355 -0.802
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1000 37.81 76.5% 0.423 -0.0869 -0.007
Memory Fades to Dust 6395 30.08 61.38% 0.335 0.6993 -0.546
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2080 33.25 57.84% -0.222 0.0141 -0.509
Promising Farmlands 3744 32.23 57.56% -0.067 0.3932 -0.692
Shattered Fragments of Power 100 36.59 63.0% 0.559 0.6141 -0.256
Slow Dissolution of Will 93 36.08 52.69% -0.047 0.3604 -0.816
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 753 37.64 80.48% 0.929 0.2863 -0.009
The Border of Life and Death 33 31.39 72.73% 0.714 0.3266 -0.493
Thriving Communities 2152 33.24 58.18% 0.34 0.6974 -0.431
Thriving Crops 50 36.76 50.0% 0.062 -0.053 0.097
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.72
Unnatural Proliferation 2221 35.41 59.84% 0.404 0.577 -0.363
Untended Land Crumbles 2040 32.99 57.94% 0.237 0.4854 -0.401

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65255 38.55% 33.78 77.84% 0.019 0.8523 0.027
B 69015 38.03% 33.83 78.34% -0.024 0.7757 0.039
C 66094 38.14% 34.04 78.48% 0.024 0.6811 0.107
D 62399 38.22% 33.37 78.32% -0.067 0.7263 -0.01
E 26305 43.11% 34.89 74.71% 0.016 0.6442 -0.055
F 34743 40.02% 34.67 77.17% 0.002 0.7146 -0.07
G 32569 39.99% 34.48 77.19% -0.015 0.7232 0.028
H 32735 40.42% 34.34 76.93% 0.0 0.6589 -0.089

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4338 0.0% 21.76 76.81% 0.095 0.9086 0.006
Not Using Events or Tokens 15633 32.82% 26.43 80.84% -0.292 0.0446 -0.345
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4174 12.6% 36.79 90.51% 0.72 0.0871 1.093
Start of Game Growth 6316 14.64% 35.4 89.01% -0.311 -0.6014 -0.102
Unlimited Undo 13121 32.53% 35.13 84.81% 0.263 0.2654 0.907
Using Tokens but Not Events 15196 21.53% 32.0 87.65% 0.164 0.0895 -0.115

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15126 20.63 16.29%
II 45224 31.02 72.8%
III 48930 34.75 92.19%
IV 20557 38.05 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2462
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43669
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31231
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20352
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2160
Lose: Invader deck ran out 739
Lose: Adversary condition 10079
Win: Sacrifice victory 232
Lose: Scenario condition 2219
Win: Scenario condition 2996
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12650
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1048

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)