Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 229 29.26% 35.87 67.25% -0.741 -1.2422 0.858
Blitz 0 1639 34.7% 27.16 66.14% -0.051 0.3252 -0.713
Dahan Insurrection 4 2750 21.09% 51.81 77.82% 0.304 -0.1753 0.787
Despicable Theft 2 342 39.3% 29.61 63.45% 0.014 0.5499 -0.567
Elemental Invocation 1 776 43.04% 28.77 59.54% -0.563 0.1794 -0.975
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10521 17.72% 44.91 72.07% 0.181 -0.4821 0.716
Powers Long Forgotten 1 852 56.55% 27.01 55.63% -0.997 -0.4236 -0.619
Rituals of Terror 3 776 35.41% 34.63 65.85% -0.143 -0.2973 -0.22
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 374 69.79% 32.01 55.61% -0.829 -0.0481 -1.165
Second Wave 0 6631 38.82% 32.85 77.79% -0.191 -0.0989 0.173
Varied Terrains 2 382 50.52% 26.62 57.33% -1.218 -0.3234 -0.475
Ward the Shores 2 1097 36.87% 31.25 60.98% -1.694 -0.8166 -0.953

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4683 34.47 59.66% 0.104 0.1584 0.158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4779 36.96 64.45% 0.719 0.5908 0.499
All Things Weaken 2998 32.76 53.5% 0.274 0.442 0.004
Attenuated Essence 695 33.74 57.27% 0.055 0.1137 0.243
Back Against the Wall 4772 35.31 58.55% 0.357 0.3284 0.068
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 693 30.7 49.93% -0.295 -0.1347 -0.15
Burn Brightest Before the End 714 33.42 52.1% -0.01 0.014 -0.138
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4316 31.41 56.28% -0.214 0.0774 -0.078
Downward Spiral 8150 28.85 61.21% -0.03 0.0506 0.145
Erosion of Will 4481 32.66 56.17% -0.021 0.133 -0.038
Intensifying Exploitation 742 30.88 52.56% -0.159 0.0179 -0.135
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1439 36.11 73.52% 0.577 0.1156 0.307
Memory Fades to Dust 8141 28.87 59.03% 0.087 0.3043 0.014
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2988 31.89 55.79% -0.149 -0.0501 -0.053
Promising Farmlands 4707 31.42 56.0% 0.041 0.3681 -0.211
Shattered Fragments of Power 684 34.06 53.51% 0.112 0.1817 -0.195
Slow Dissolution of Will 681 31.14 47.87% -0.347 0.1062 -0.263
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1037 35.92 77.82% 0.206 -0.4704 0.322
The Border of Life and Death 218 31.66 67.89% -0.002 -0.47 0.464
Thriving Communities 3076 31.87 56.7% 0.196 0.4056 0.047
Thriving Crops 394 31.65 55.58% -0.014 -0.2163 -0.163
Tipping Point 1250 31.51 51.36% -0.255
Unnatural Proliferation 3202 34.86 59.03% 0.415 0.5061 0.124
Untended Land Crumbles 2998 31.53 54.97% 0.031 0.2251 0.017

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 89041 37.91% 31.64 72.41% 0.012 0.9388 0.023
B 92677 37.56% 31.75 72.87% -0.138 0.7131 0.018
C 89596 37.61% 31.9 72.82% -0.018 0.6771 0.097
D 83640 37.93% 31.24 72.7% -0.017 0.8334 -0.054
E 42606 41.7% 32.2 68.7% 0.017 0.6861 -0.014
F 51762 39.28% 32.17 71.29% 0.028 0.805 -0.065
G 47882 39.72% 32.08 71.21% 0.004 0.7659 0.01
H 48076 39.8% 32.1 71.23% 0.067 0.7981 -0.032

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5961 0.0% 21.19 71.97% -0.178 0.5293 -0.174
Not Using Events or Tokens 21025 31.45% 23.74 73.13% -0.3 0.1893 -0.597
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5931 12.57% 37.94 86.73% 1.069 0.3329 1.319
Start of Game Growth 8886 14.46% 35.63 84.17% 0.094 -0.3637 0.024
Unlimited Undo 19150 30.93% 32.5 77.0% -0.162 -0.1896 0.583
Using Tokens but Not Events 20937 22.44% 30.78 82.45% 0.524 0.3683 -0.36

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 30343 14.21 9.52%
II 59404 30.29 69.93%
III 64689 34.84 91.63%
IV 27475 38.62 99.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2888
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57644
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 39596
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27217
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 15739
Lose: Invader deck ran out 939
Lose: Adversary condition 13341
Win: Sacrifice victory 288
Lose: Scenario condition 2610
Win: Scenario condition 3412
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16869
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1368

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-24 05:20:05 (Pacific Time)