Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 587 28.96% 29.1 -1.358 90.29% -0.171 0.1125
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 472 35.67% 33.54 1.032 88.56% -0.188 0.2231
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 600 58.96% 37.56 3.099 75.83% -0.936 -0.059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 744 68.19% 36.78 2.659 63.84% -1.505 -0.2593
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 519 83.43% 37.76 3.506 49.9% -1.88 -0.3783
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 168 79.76% 41.49 5.296 50.6% -1.855 0.0979
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 637 81.95% 38.87 3.881 35.79% -2.541 -0.4982
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2810 22.52% 26.41 -2.459 93.74% 0.29 0.3316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2266 30.22% 31.16 -0.099 92.1% 0.231 0.2128
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3254 36.58% 39.56 4.143 90.66% 0.097 0.1104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2754 39.66% 46.55 7.509 88.56% -0.145 0.1431
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2260 37.11% 49.35 9.099 89.34% -0.154 0.2134
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 924 55.3% 52.53 10.579 76.73% -0.837 -0.0107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1836 74.4% 48.8 8.704 60.13% -1.56 -0.3218
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3353 17.2% 27.23 -1.964 91.53% -0.207 0.1248
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1734 27.82% 34.26 1.556 84.37% -0.704 -0.1903
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1937 47.91% 32.83 0.887 70.37% -1.341 -0.373
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2262 55.94% 35.32 2.064 54.77% -2.067 -0.4885
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2100 51.91% 41.79 5.296 62.19% -1.815 -0.3166
The Kingdom of England 5 9 681 69.46% 39.01 3.909 37.3% -2.687 -0.6135
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3724 53.05% 47.44 7.656 47.96% -2.524 -0.2761
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1402 34.1% 29.71 -1.059 86.88% -0.418 0.0955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 853 55.24% 30.96 -0.195 76.67% -0.788 0.1109
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1892 43.99% 35.68 1.954 59.73% -2.018 0.1246
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1978 56.07% 42.03 5.17 57.99% -1.904 0.2924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1781 48.68% 47.31 7.665 61.26% -1.9 0.2582
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1324 52.15% 55.68 11.291 71.15% -1.092 0.725
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3881 55.0% 53.83 10.896 57.18% -1.981 0.116
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1629 27.46% 24.84 -3.23 89.93% -0.105 -0.0197
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1236 27.38% 31.07 -0.276 91.83% 0.148 0.1818
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1803 35.93% 32.82 0.701 87.19% -0.261 -0.026
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1704 46.84% 41.13 4.93 85.74% -0.3 -0.0135
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1194 57.53% 40.95 4.888 76.55% -0.849 -0.066
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 522 62.74% 44.44 6.613 75.1% -0.796 0.3704
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2441 56.53% 46.35 7.285 69.68% -1.247 -0.1226
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 482 29.73% 27.03 -2.679 93.57% 0.247 0.1456
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 262 33.33% 35.09 1.195 87.4% -0.387 0.3919
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 351 41.03% 38.68 3.289 88.32% -0.307 0.1128
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 475 65.47% 40.28 4.234 68.21% -1.295 -0.0416
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 363 63.36% 44.37 6.125 68.6% -1.366 -0.249
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 198 80.81% 44.15 5.97 46.46% -2.068 -0.0687
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 613 81.24% 48.45 7.951 42.25% -2.408 -0.5296

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1016 44.58% 28.09 -2.658 69.09% -0.766 -0.1971
Dahan Insurrection 4 1983 23.62% 54.13 10.356 82.2% -0.26 0.1382
Despicable Theft 2 78 42.31% 33.0 0.289 78.21% -0.801 -0.5317
Elemental Invocation 1 179 55.31% 32.26 -1.262 64.8% -0.659 -0.1943
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7356 16.18% 44.42 3.985 73.69% -0.627 -0.2609
Powers Long Forgotten 1 661 63.69% 31.95 -0.548 64.6% -0.82 -0.3747
Rituals of Terror 3 580 39.1% 40.47 4.279 79.31% -0.398 0.2469
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 287 74.22% 35.27 1.331 59.93% -0.868 -0.2229
Second Wave 0 4426 42.33% 31.88 -0.449 78.97% -0.559 -0.1298
Ward the Shores 2 826 38.44% 34.31 0.116 66.83% -1.3 -0.2657

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2788 35.12 -0.784 61.66% -1.423 0.65
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2798 36.73 0.105 65.01% -1.256 0.662
All Things Weaken 1064 32.83 -1.828 53.2% -1.822 0.3484
Back Against the Wall 2710 35.29 -0.732 58.67% -1.554 0.5376
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2449 32.64 -2.072 58.84% -1.554 0.6705
Downward Spiral 4759 29.68 -2.358 63.88% -1.523 0.4998
Erosion of Will 2512 33.43 -1.548 58.12% -1.626 0.583
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 547 38.48 0.909 75.87% -0.726 -0.0392
Memory Fades to Dust 4682 29.5 -2.467 61.13% -1.689 0.5292
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1122 33.28 -1.582 59.36% -1.594 0.4302
Promising Farmlands 2750 31.82 -2.293 58.25% -1.672 0.542
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 384 37.82 0.613 81.77% -0.457 -0.0468
Thriving Communities 1141 33.13 -1.638 58.55% -1.55 0.5448
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 -2.662 51.4% -1.905 0.3217
Unnatural Proliferation 1249 35.6 -0.467 60.69% -1.439 0.6477
Untended Land Crumbles 1088 32.81 -1.793 58.36% -1.626 0.48

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 47172 38.14% 33.71 -0.124 79.17% -0.028 -0.7885
B 50629 37.86% 33.79 -0.092 79.38% -0.008 -0.8653
C 47926 37.99% 33.92 0.085 79.49% 0.061 -1.0273
D 45673 37.8% 33.44 -0.3 79.45% -0.006 -0.8566
E 13643 43.73% 35.53 0.176 76.57% -0.018 -0.9834
F 21862 39.5% 35.22 0.15 79.09% 0.024 -0.8897
G 20633 39.22% 35.2 0.242 78.95% 0.04 -0.8651
H 20833 39.29% 35.04 0.079 78.87% -0.023 -0.9374

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3171 0.0% 20.72 -4.82 76.63% -1.929 0.1276
Not Using Events or Tokens 11772 33.68% 26.7 -2.57 81.63% -0.212 0.0035
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2610 13.59% 35.57 1.68 91.53% 0.408 -0.2785
Start of Game Growth 4154 15.47% 34.4 0.929 90.88% 0.527 0.0566
Unlimited Undo 8231 34.23% 35.02 0.669 85.35% 0.382 -0.0379
Using Tokens but Not Events 10166 22.45% 31.04 -1.127 88.38% 0.163 0.1109

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9446 22.35 19.35%
II 31548 30.84 73.66%
III 34297 34.35 92.29%
IV 14166 37.52 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1432
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 23776
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16910
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11057
Lose: Invader deck ran out 526
Lose: Adversary condition 6861
Win: Sacrifice victory 153
Lose: Scenario condition 1728
Win: Scenario condition 2178
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8803
Lose: Spirit destroyed 745

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)