Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 69 26.09% 32.29 76.81% 0.983 0.7052 0.96
Blitz 0 1164 39.0% 28.65 71.56% -0.366 -0.1883 -1.026
Dahan Insurrection 4 2200 20.82% 54.35 82.18% -0.244 -0.6382 0.507
Despicable Theft 2 190 44.44% 33.08 71.58% -1.289 -0.4935 -0.341
Elemental Invocation 1 401 52.87% 30.62 65.84% 0.023 0.7416 -0.845
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8146 17.44% 46.01 73.93% 0.737 0.0972 0.388
Powers Long Forgotten 1 607 63.18% 31.49 65.07% -0.234 0.4039 -0.659
Rituals of Terror 3 571 39.51% 40.6 77.06% -0.566 -0.4144 -0.075
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 280 75.71% 34.84 58.57% -0.746 0.3337 -1.714
Second Wave 0 4864 38.86% 32.44 80.16% 0.454 0.521 -0.126
Varied Terrains 2 129 48.06% 30.9 69.77% -0.698 -0.0645 0.359
Ward the Shores 2 896 36.88% 33.81 66.41% -1.154 -0.064 -1.229

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3766 35.13 61.29% 0.079 0.309 -0.348
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3885 37.26 64.76% 0.439 0.3804 0.062
All Things Weaken 2048 33.55 53.91% -0.148 0.2295 -0.466
Attenuated Essence 96 32.84 58.33% 0.545 0.6253 0.068
Back Against the Wall 3816 35.56 58.91% 0.545 0.5938 -0.458
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 101 30.74 44.55% -0.161 0.0361 -0.937
Burn Brightest Before the End 133 33.66 53.38% 0.064 0.257 -0.912
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3410 32.44 58.04% 0.108 0.5216 -0.568
Downward Spiral 6399 29.85 63.32% 0.127 0.37 -0.389
Erosion of Will 3511 33.41 57.11% 0.405 0.7137 -0.59
Intensifying Exploitation 125 29.5 51.2% 0.167 0.4458 -0.719
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1006 37.85 76.44% 0.461 -0.0457 -0.003
Memory Fades to Dust 6415 30.1 61.37% 0.277 0.6198 -0.503
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2103 33.18 57.77% -0.235 0.001 -0.503
Promising Farmlands 3758 32.17 57.5% -0.146 0.3075 -0.671
Shattered Fragments of Power 109 36.32 62.39% 0.62 0.6718 -0.273
Slow Dissolution of Will 103 34.73 49.51% -0.131 0.2599 -1.028
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 758 37.61 80.47% 0.795 0.0849 -0.001
The Border of Life and Death 33 31.39 72.73% 0.601 0.2246 -0.482
Thriving Communities 2173 33.22 58.21% 0.36 0.7073 -0.393
Thriving Crops 56 36.0 51.79% 0.319 0.1182 0.12
Tipping Point 1249 31.54 51.4% -0.691
Unnatural Proliferation 2237 35.43 59.81% 0.303 0.4977 -0.34
Untended Land Crumbles 2059 32.97 57.8% 0.224 0.4911 -0.38

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65720 38.53% 33.73 77.68% 0.0 0.7581 0.022
B 69471 38.04% 33.78 78.19% -0.03 0.7089 0.039
C 66540 38.1% 33.99 78.34% 0.029 0.6156 0.113
D 62773 38.21% 33.31 78.16% -0.111 0.6049 -0.012
E 26586 43.05% 34.81 74.56% 0.059 0.6339 -0.055
F 35052 39.97% 34.62 77.01% -0.005 0.671 -0.077
G 32844 40.0% 34.41 77.02% 0.008 0.667 0.03
H 32977 40.37% 34.28 76.8% 0.008 0.5837 -0.083

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4377 0.0% 21.66 76.49% -0.018 0.7522 0.037
Not Using Events or Tokens 15726 32.73% 26.35 80.64% -0.331 0.0443 -0.344
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4209 12.54% 36.82 90.35% 0.782 0.1446 1.113
Start of Game Growth 6367 14.7% 35.41 88.77% -0.41 -0.7212 -0.095
Unlimited Undo 13241 32.5% 35.09 84.69% 0.265 0.2416 0.933
Using Tokens but Not Events 15275 21.56% 31.98 87.52% 0.138 0.1319 -0.136

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15414 20.44 16.04%
II 45488 31.01 72.74%
III 49221 34.76 92.17%
IV 20659 38.06 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2471
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43925
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31386
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 20454
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2432
Lose: Invader deck ran out 742
Lose: Adversary condition 10121
Win: Sacrifice victory 233
Lose: Scenario condition 2236
Win: Scenario condition 3006
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12723
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1053

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)