Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 30.33 100.0% 0.925 0.7376 0.18
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.165 0.3153 0.443
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.218 -0.0113 -1.89
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0% 0.263 1.0043
Elemental Invocation 1 11 27.27% 29.55 81.82% 0.215 0.9898 0.353
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 152 19.08% 42.08 81.58% -0.719 -1.3398 -0.701
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 75.0% 28.25 75.0% 0.591 1.0926 -0.361
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% -0.535 -0.4722 0.106
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.454
Second Wave 0 410 44.44% 27.59 78.29% 0.302 0.3598 -0.557
Varied Terrains 2 10 70.0% 30.1 40.0% 0.292 0.7967 0.085
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.256 1.43 -1.073

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 193 31.97 53.37% -0.255 -0.0074 -0.722
Aid From Lesser Spirits 243 31.84 55.97% 0.519 0.5044 -0.286
All Things Weaken 112 33.54 56.25% -1.204 -0.7787 -0.837
Attenuated Essence 12 38.33 66.67% 0.172 0.3337 0.789
Back Against the Wall 197 31.71 58.38% -0.218 -0.1101 -0.688
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 46.8 60.0% -0.137 0.2262 -0.739
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 44.07 50.0% -0.252 0.0156 0.211
Disintegrating Ecosystem 211 26.53 49.29% -0.007 0.4694 -0.699
Downward Spiral 425 23.7 55.29% -0.15 0.1542 -0.38
Erosion of Will 194 29.93 51.03% 0.663 1.0292 -0.939
Intensifying Exploitation 4 53.0 75.0% 0.207 0.5599 0.177
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 44 34.52 88.64% 0.561 0.0499 -0.527
Memory Fades to Dust 423 23.33 49.65% -0.219 0.2164 -1.204
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 31.94 57.02% -0.366 -0.1037 -0.369
Promising Farmlands 207 26.61 48.31% -0.61 -0.0869 -0.69
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 46.67 72.22% 0.504 0.6206 0.554
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 48.71 57.14% 0.508 0.9918 0.083
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 37.78 87.76% -0.225 -0.8511 0.19
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.224 -0.4748
Thriving Communities 144 27.79 55.56% -0.228 0.205 -1.134
Thriving Crops 4 61.75 100.0% 1.104 1.0937 0.882
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.036
Unnatural Proliferation 148 33.68 60.81% 0.521 0.7826 -0.834
Untended Land Crumbles 133 30.95 51.13% -0.718 -0.4012 -0.381

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2233 46.45% 28.02 73.0% -0.447 0.4134 0.413
B 2334 46.97% 28.47 74.46% 0.12 0.9338 -0.032
C 2287 46.05% 29.31 73.63% 0.208 0.8957 -0.115
D 2250 45.75% 28.7 74.93% 0.226 1.0618 -0.182
E 951 51.02% 34.92 73.5% 0.349 1.0014 0.308
F 1211 42.21% 30.47 76.96% -0.45 0.3017 0.011
G 1115 43.65% 29.59 74.98% 0.077 0.8486 -0.281
H 1129 44.48% 29.32 76.97% -0.07 0.6129 -0.106

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 310 0.0% 15.4 59.03% -0.937 -0.0929
Not Using Events or Tokens 1660 22.78% 22.62 83.8% -0.324 0.002 -0.488
Skip Initial Invader Actions 143 18.95% 34.46 92.31% -0.712 -1.3054
Start of Game Growth 211 26.47% 35.11 91.47% 0.315 0.0465 0.056
Unlimited Undo 585 37.88% 31.65 85.3% 0.528 0.524 1.024
Using Tokens but Not Events 630 42.96% 25.66 74.13% 0.692 0.6311 -0.189

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1188 20.88 41.33%
II 2410 31.03 68.01%
III 2250 34.74 89.07%
IV 910 38.02 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 491
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1972
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1593
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 899
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 71
Lose: Invader deck ran out 63
Lose: Adversary condition 364
Win: Sacrifice victory 17
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1096
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-02 03:54:23 (Pacific Time)