Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 21 38.1% 29.38 0.327 100.0% 1.039 1.3173
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 55.56% 26.59 -0.385 66.67% -0.684 -0.29
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 22 66.67% 37.91 5.487 77.27% 0.051 0.9289
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 28 76.0% 36.89 5.331 67.86% -0.146 1.1057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 10 90.0% 36.7 5.287 50.0% -0.551 0.97
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 50.0 11.534 66.67% -0.468 1.5086
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 61 81.97% 39.64 5.987 37.7% -1.757 0.2929
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 128 39.84% 23.7 -1.314 84.38% 0.046 0.087
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 107 46.23% 27.95 0.945 77.57% -0.118 -0.1467
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 95 50.0% 37.6 5.363 86.32% 0.381 0.3854
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 80 58.75% 43.41 8.428 85.0% 0.387 0.6761
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 62 42.62% 48.29 10.607 87.1% 0.115 0.4822
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 23 56.52% 46.43 10.107 60.87% -0.884 -0.0543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64 81.25% 42.97 8.093 46.88% -1.343 -0.1014
The Kingdom of England 0 1 92 35.16% 23.6 -1.587 82.61% -0.141 0.1913
The Kingdom of England 1 3 67 32.84% 32.22 2.582 80.6% -0.346 0.1581
The Kingdom of England 2 4 74 56.76% 29.46 1.557 62.16% -0.848 0.12
The Kingdom of England 3 6 65 71.88% 33.72 3.526 52.31% -1.365 0.2128
The Kingdom of England 4 7 119 54.62% 44.45 7.655 65.55% -0.939 0.5587
The Kingdom of England 5 9 25 76.0% 37.8 6.142 40.0% -1.494 0.5729
The Kingdom of England 6 11 128 64.06% 50.34 10.87 57.81% -1.521 0.7343
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 54 49.06% 27.41 0.223 83.33% 0.257 0.7722
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 42 70.73% 26.86 0.485 64.29% -0.513 0.3832
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 40 55.0% 31.52 2.55 50.0% -1.441 0.6957
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 35 77.14% 46.77 10.002 68.57% -0.106 2.0795
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 23 65.22% 39.57 6.837 47.83% -1.308 0.8382
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 21 57.14% 40.48 6.812 38.1% -1.754 0.0663
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 100 67.0% 51.06 11.781 51.0% -1.387 0.7202
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 72 60.0% 20.54 -2.399 77.78% 0.177 0.2617
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 59 35.59% 28.22 0.811 84.75% 0.102 0.1231
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 63 42.86% 29.43 1.477 76.19% -0.447 -0.2157
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 64 59.38% 39.09 6.418 81.25% 0.068 0.3537
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 63 73.02% 33.83 3.868 55.56% -0.805 -0.0275
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 20 75.0% 45.15 9.456 75.0% 0.094 1.2511
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 75 78.67% 42.35 7.952 61.33% -0.324 0.8072
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 17 47.06% 22.12 -2.724 76.47% -0.217 -0.3227
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 71.43% 23.29 -1.542 42.86% -0.892 -0.1485
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 60.0% 32.4 2.102 70.0% -0.555 -0.1235
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 57.14% 45.86 8.55 85.71% -0.226 1.0231
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 69.23% 46.31 8.587 69.23% -0.648 0.4787
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 83.33% 37.83 5.615 33.33% -1.009 1.0103
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 34 94.12% 52.94 12.557 55.88% -1.11 0.7949

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 47 31.91% 27.79 -1.134 72.34% -0.885 -0.3119
Dahan Insurrection 4 69 52.17% 42.38 6.443 55.07% -0.613 -0.213
Elemental Invocation 1 5 0.0% 31.8 1.103 100.0% 0.156 0.5954
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 151 16.56% 42.48 4.796 85.43% -0.374 -0.0077
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 23.9 -1.618 65.0% -0.227 0.2142
Rituals of Terror 3 24 40.91% 40.13 5.721 70.83% -0.398 0.2454
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -1.04 23.08% -1.012 -0.3706
Second Wave 0 258 47.66% 27.69 -0.238 77.13% -0.212 0.2162
Ward the Shores 2 33 63.64% 30.76 -0.561 33.33% -1.667 -0.6297

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 117 28.61 -1.628 53.85% -2.133 -0.0595
Aid From Lesser Spirits 155 29.81 -1.081 53.55% -2.258 -0.3386
All Things Weaken 53 36.68 0.754 60.38% -1.676 0.4829
Back Against the Wall 138 30.17 -0.534 62.32% -1.684 0.41
Disintegrating Ecosystem 142 24.59 -3.508 50.7% -2.285 -0.0608
Downward Spiral 274 23.47 -3.065 55.84% -2.379 -0.3577
Erosion of Will 110 28.52 -1.738 55.45% -2.042 0.1667
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 30.67 -0.4 94.44% -0.037 0.6555
Memory Fades to Dust 294 21.12 -4.15 48.3% -2.811 -0.5922
Power Corrodes the Spirit 50 31.12 -0.768 64.0% -1.854 0.1673
Promising Farmlands 138 24.76 -3.137 50.0% -2.188 0.0263
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 24 35.83 1.982 95.83% 0.336 0.7472
Thriving Communities 70 28.11 -2.112 61.43% -2.16 -0.0666
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -4.072 37.21% -2.594 -0.3686
Unnatural Proliferation 73 32.1 0.024 67.12% -1.745 0.3444
Untended Land Crumbles 61 33.34 -0.341 55.74% -2.029 0.0766

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1573 42.93% 27.62 -0.347 76.03% -0.074 -1.186
B 1616 44.02% 27.43 -0.448 76.61% -0.034 -1.242
C 1567 41.96% 28.07 -0.158 76.9% -0.095 -1.5342
D 1547 42.62% 27.96 -0.032 78.8% 0.082 -1.1198
E 413 47.15% 33.66 1.306 78.45% 0.084 -1.2281
F 761 32.93% 29.62 0.514 83.84% 0.122 -1.1439
G 699 37.65% 28.98 0.113 78.68% -0.155 -1.4117
H 708 40.55% 28.95 0.212 80.51% 0.095 -1.1707

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 213 0.0% 15.8 -5.351 62.44% -2.855 -0.8008
Not Using Events or Tokens 1357 17.53% 23.37 -1.43 87.77% 0.679 0.8965
Skip Initial Invader Actions 97 18.84% 35.8 2.761 91.75% 0.45 -0.2431
Start of Game Growth 154 26.19% 34.82 2.281 90.91% 0.696 0.2331
Unlimited Undo 384 39.51% 32.35 1.616 84.64% 0.491 0.0706
Using Tokens but Not Events 385 46.84% 26.23 -1.13 72.47% 0.027 -0.0258

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 826 22.34 57.26%
II 1635 30.81 71.38%
III 1419 34.31 89.64%
IV 562 37.5 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 394
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1026
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 885
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 437
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 182
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 24
Win: Scenario condition 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 685
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)