Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 23 34.78% 29.48 0.522 100.0% 1.049 1.3383
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 28 57.14% 26.14 -0.548 64.29% -0.743 -0.3293
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 24 65.22% 37.04 4.968 75.0% -0.146 0.7373
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 28 76.0% 36.89 5.362 67.86% -0.114 1.1278
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 93.33% 34.13 4.051 46.67% -0.598 0.8988
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 34.67 3.669 33.33% -1.195 0.7441
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 67 83.58% 39.36 5.83 37.31% -1.794 0.2485
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 136 38.97% 23.91 -1.244 84.56% 0.061 0.1024
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 115 46.49% 27.71 0.733 77.39% -0.148 -0.1665
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 102 47.52% 38.12 5.557 87.25% 0.425 0.4388
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 93 59.14% 43.1 8.208 83.87% 0.344 0.6277
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 66 44.62% 48.45 10.661 87.88% 0.2 0.5592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 56.0% 47.44 10.531 64.0% -0.773 0.052
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 68 77.94% 43.74 8.448 48.53% -1.331 -0.0915
The Kingdom of England 0 1 98 35.05% 23.85 -1.623 83.67% -0.128 0.2014
The Kingdom of England 1 3 74 33.78% 32.22 2.482 81.08% -0.347 0.1702
The Kingdom of England 2 4 80 55.0% 29.95 1.724 63.75% -0.816 0.1573
The Kingdom of England 3 6 75 71.62% 34.2 3.613 54.67% -1.293 0.2868
The Kingdom of England 4 7 123 54.47% 43.72 7.307 63.41% -1.062 0.4332
The Kingdom of England 5 9 26 76.92% 37.23 5.764 38.46% -1.577 0.4933
The Kingdom of England 6 11 140 65.0% 49.81 10.577 56.43% -1.576 0.6678
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 56 49.09% 27.45 0.262 83.93% 0.339 0.8509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 42 70.73% 26.86 0.494 64.29% -0.477 0.4255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 42 54.76% 32.43 2.933 52.38% -1.395 0.7465
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 38 78.95% 46.05 9.659 65.79% -0.205 1.9931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24 66.67% 40.46 7.288 50.0% -1.188 0.9724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 21 57.14% 40.48 6.756 38.1% -1.77 0.047
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 119 68.91% 51.64 12.05 52.94% -1.229 0.8622
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 74 59.72% 20.57 -2.407 78.38% 0.2 0.2885
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 63 36.51% 28.52 0.833 85.71% 0.182 0.2175
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 65 41.54% 29.69 1.558 76.92% -0.429 -0.192
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 60.29% 38.62 6.016 79.41% -0.04 0.2504
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 68 72.06% 34.13 3.979 57.35% -0.742 0.0393
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 76.19% 43.95 8.836 71.43% -0.083 1.0856
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 79 77.22% 43.08 8.162 62.03% -0.338 0.7848
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 21 42.86% 22.71 -2.425 80.95% -0.03 -0.1186
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 11 72.73% 22.27 -1.843 36.36% -1.213 -0.4337
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 66.67% 33.25 2.601 66.67% -0.595 -0.1831
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 62.5% 46.25 8.577 87.5% -0.121 1.1228
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 69.23% 46.31 8.542 69.23% -0.662 0.4458
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 45.38 9.157 50.0% -0.905 1.0789
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 41 92.68% 54.0 13.047 58.54% -1.065 0.8067

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 47 31.91% 27.79 -1.151 72.34% -0.867 -0.3011
Dahan Insurrection 4 74 50.0% 43.32 6.916 58.11% -0.55 -0.1501
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 27.33 -0.775 83.33% -0.434 0.0687
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 155 16.13% 42.26 4.714 85.81% -0.352 0.0126
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 66.67% 25.29 -1.098 66.67% -0.214 0.2328
Rituals of Terror 3 24 40.91% 40.13 5.624 70.83% -0.436 0.2087
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -0.993 23.08% -0.942 -0.2949
Second Wave 0 288 48.6% 27.79 -0.241 76.04% -0.256 0.1742
Ward the Shores 2 34 61.76% 30.71 -0.626 35.29% -1.648 -0.6163

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 128 30.02 -1.197 54.69% -2.116 -0.047
Aid From Lesser Spirits 170 29.42 -1.292 52.35% -2.341 -0.4283
All Things Weaken 54 36.43 0.614 61.11% -1.694 0.4652
Back Against the Wall 143 29.99 -0.694 60.84% -1.796 0.2908
Disintegrating Ecosystem 146 24.57 -3.607 50.0% -2.361 -0.1391
Downward Spiral 299 23.69 -3.069 55.85% -2.42 -0.398
Erosion of Will 120 28.45 -2.087 53.33% -2.196 0.0114
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 32.4 0.171 95.0% 0.004 0.6824
Memory Fades to Dust 313 21.75 -3.911 49.84% -2.794 -0.5789
Power Corrodes the Spirit 60 29.62 -1.475 58.33% -2.102 -0.0813
Promising Farmlands 149 24.95 -3.247 49.66% -2.272 -0.0641
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 35.93 1.74 96.67% 0.362 0.7731
Thriving Communities 80 28.8 -1.813 63.75% -2.064 0.0242
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -4.16 37.21% -2.646 -0.4211
Unnatural Proliferation 81 32.15 -0.114 66.67% -1.809 0.2715
Untended Land Crumbles 70 32.84 -0.518 55.71% -2.058 0.044

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1657 43.43% 27.81 -0.37 75.8% -0.099 -0.7866
B 1696 44.56% 27.91 -0.246 76.89% 0.023 -0.7612
C 1647 42.8% 28.3 -0.118 76.68% -0.087 -1.1
D 1635 43.38% 28.08 -0.056 78.59% 0.099 -0.6784
E 476 46.88% 33.2 0.996 77.73% 0.016 -0.8783
F 821 33.71% 29.48 0.36 83.19% 0.099 -0.7421
G 762 38.36% 29.08 0.082 78.61% -0.134 -0.9663
H 768 41.58% 29.1 0.2 79.95% 0.111 -0.7278

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 221 0.0% 15.81 -5.384 62.44% -2.902 -0.849
Not Using Events or Tokens 1397 18.53% 23.32 -1.507 87.47% 0.665 0.8796
Skip Initial Invader Actions 107 19.74% 36.93 3.128 92.52% 0.592 -0.094
Start of Game Growth 165 25.74% 35.52 2.394 91.52% 0.685 0.2164
Unlimited Undo 417 40.34% 32.18 1.474 84.89% 0.525 0.1018
Using Tokens but Not Events 405 46.87% 26.01 -1.349 73.09% -0.015 -0.0655

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 852 22.37 55.63%
II 1732 30.88 71.13%
III 1530 34.39 89.41%
IV 617 37.55 99.35%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1119
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 947
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 492
Lose: Invader deck ran out 45
Lose: Adversary condition 196
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 24
Win: Scenario condition 54
Lose: Blight pool ran out 739
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)