Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 30.33 100.0% 0.358
Blitz 0 56 34.55% 27.38 80.36% 0.784 0.99 0.328
Dahan Insurrection 4 92 39.13% 49.95 31.52% -0.267 -0.4924 -2.183
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 26 69.23% 24.88 50.0% 0.164 1.2352 0.519
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 186 18.28% 38.79 77.42% -0.13 -0.8586 -0.853
Powers Long Forgotten 1 28 71.43% 29.57 78.57% 0.407 1.3207 -0.048
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% 0.357
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.492
Second Wave 0 475 41.7% 27.04 77.68% 0.045 0.0907 -0.635
Varied Terrains 2 12 58.33% 28.25 41.67% 0.21 1.102 0.132
Ward the Shores 2 39 56.41% 29.49 41.03% -0.911

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 229 30.56 51.53% -0.823 -0.6895 -0.52
Aid From Lesser Spirits 273 32.53 55.31% 0.107 0.0627 -0.043
All Things Weaken 145 32.1 55.17% 0.089 0.4629 -0.636
Attenuated Essence 32 35.72 53.13% -0.783 -0.6736 -0.408
Back Against the Wall 222 31.0 56.31% -0.177 -0.1049 -0.428
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 42.14 52.38% -0.367 -0.1514 0.095
Burn Brightest Before the End 38 35.32 36.84% -1.112 -1.0071 -0.114
Disintegrating Ecosystem 244 26.95 48.36% -0.275 0.07 -0.281
Downward Spiral 507 23.57 55.03% 0.524 0.7186 0.02
Erosion of Will 214 29.79 50.47% 0.81 1.0834 -0.73
Intensifying Exploitation 24 28.54 37.5% -0.284 -0.0287 -1.085
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 53 34.55 83.02% -0.177 -0.676 -0.251
Memory Fades to Dust 503 22.76 49.9% -0.067 0.2457 -0.886
Power Corrodes the Spirit 154 32.88 59.74% 0.041 0.3296 -0.006
Promising Farmlands 249 26.21 46.59% -0.935 -0.6 -0.507
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 44.59 62.5% 0.301 0.4089 0.419
Slow Dissolution of Will 19 40.32 52.63% -0.068 0.3505 -0.093
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 58 37.53 87.93% 0.186 -0.4357 0.285
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0%
Thriving Communities 165 27.93 53.94% -0.51 -0.1768 -0.722
Thriving Crops 7 50.57 85.71% -0.295 -0.3855 0.804
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% 0.042
Unnatural Proliferation 177 33.67 64.41% 0.748 0.9034 -0.396
Untended Land Crumbles 155 30.63 49.03% -0.943 -0.6379 -0.118

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2670 46.0% 26.8 68.58% 0.035 0.9789 0.443
B 2801 47.53% 27.21 70.4% -0.256 0.6078 -0.09
C 2736 45.69% 28.14 70.1% 0.125 0.8504 -0.123
D 2698 45.5% 27.41 70.57% 0.163 1.0561 -0.239
E 1253 49.71% 33.66 72.15% 0.551 1.2937 0.32
F 1487 44.41% 29.77 73.84% 0.163 0.991 -0.036
G 1297 44.22% 28.84 72.09% -0.757 0.0601 -0.255
H 1359 45.79% 28.82 73.22% -0.012 0.7992 -0.002

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 414 0.0% 13.86 52.9% 0.347 1.1796
Not Using Events or Tokens 1955 24.4% 20.94 77.44% -0.019 0.4213 -1.007
Skip Initial Invader Actions 175 18.97% 33.74 88.57% -0.45 -0.9874
Start of Game Growth 245 27.92% 34.22 88.98% 0.03 -0.5058 0.339
Unlimited Undo 703 40.03% 30.14 80.8% 0.413 0.4449 0.586
Using Tokens but Not Events 783 41.75% 24.75 72.41% 0.378 0.3735 -0.536

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1586 16.25 31.4%
II 2829 30.54 65.78%
III 2648 34.77 88.33%
IV 1091 38.37 99.36%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 498
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2306
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1814
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1077
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 392
Lose: Invader deck ran out 82
Lose: Adversary condition 440
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Scenario condition 47
Win: Scenario condition 68
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1313
Lose: Spirit destroyed 98

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-12 05:47:45 (Pacific Time)