Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 26 38.46% 29.5 1.208 100.0% 0.23 0.7234
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 33 54.55% 27.36 3.576 69.7% 0.083 0.8517
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 31 63.33% 36.68 -7.054 70.97% -0.638 0.4542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 35 81.25% 37.49 -1.008 68.57% -0.11 1.3232
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 95.24% 40.95 9.652 61.9% 0.406 2.1043
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 45.42 18.619 58.33% 0.461 2.0747
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 71 81.69% 40.32 3.019 39.44% -0.59 1.608
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 158 36.08% 24.44 -2.348 86.71% 0.474 0.7432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 140 46.04% 28.06 0.729 79.29% 0.571 0.3499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 135 47.01% 38.82 6.791 87.41% 0.672 0.8869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 113 56.64% 43.67 10.718 83.19% 0.57 1.0503
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 68 43.28% 48.59 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 33 57.58% 48.85 16.122 60.61% 0.038 1.1732
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 78 76.92% 45.32 11.37 51.28% -0.093 1.4685
The Kingdom of England 0 1 115 36.84% 24.01 -6.306 83.48% -0.547 -0.1223
The Kingdom of England 1 3 88 35.23% 32.66 0.285 82.95% -0.316 0.4061
The Kingdom of England 2 4 103 55.34% 30.71 -0.181 64.08% -0.216 0.866
The Kingdom of England 3 6 97 72.92% 34.0 11.276 52.58% 0.515 2.1784
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 57.97% 42.49 -1.351 60.87% -1.178 0.433
The Kingdom of England 5 9 29 79.31% 37.07 37.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 162 65.43% 51.02 12.796 58.02% -0.135 2.2342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 51.72% 27.17 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 51 72.0% 27.0 2.365 64.71% -0.458 0.3656
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 53 52.83% 32.64 52.83%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 51 76.47% 46.24 12.213 66.67% 0.439 2.7468
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 42 69.05% 36.14 3.269 38.1% -0.808 1.6006
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 24 54.17% 42.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 180 62.22% 53.41 11.656 44.44% -0.794 1.505
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 0.0% 31.6 1.344 100.0% 0.103 -0.1021
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 7 71.43% 25.43 -4.475 57.14% -0.67 0.2104
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7 85.71% 16.0 -4.539 0.0% -1.233 -0.3338
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 46.67 8.912 100.0% 0.405 1.1569
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 46.33 5.807 66.67% -0.234 1.0211
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 83.33% 33.17 3.891 33.33% -0.36 1.033
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 60 88.33% 43.87 6.139 43.33% -1.155 0.4813
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 84 59.76% 21.36 1.208 79.76% 0.23 0.3595
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 72 36.11% 28.67 0.639 87.5% 0.183 0.1082
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 90 42.22% 32.96 4.172 81.11% -0.239 0.1925
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 85 60.0% 39.32 8.776 81.18% 0.355 0.6022
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 82 70.37% 33.84 1.168 56.1% -0.415 0.4802
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 29 72.41% 42.17 6.369 65.52% -0.089 0.8051
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 98 76.53% 45.16 12.583 63.27% 0.623 1.8617
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 41.67% 22.5 -8.616 79.17% -0.286 -0.379
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 26.25 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 68.42% 30.79 2.964 63.16% -0.694 -0.2019
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 75.0% 42.69 -2.204 75.0% -0.371 0.8293
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 75.0% 43.31 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 70.0% 44.8 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 80 63.75% 54.13 18.427 33.75% 0.157 2.0735

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0% 0.487 0.5934
Blitz 0 45 37.78% 27.84 80.0% -0.386 -0.039 0.263
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 25.0% 52.88 40.63% 0.007 0.3628 -1.752
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 15.0 0.0% -0.403 -0.1927
Elemental Invocation 1 9 22.22% 25.89 77.78% 0.21
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 131 19.08% 44.63 85.5% -0.027 0.1967 -1.059
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 27.35 75.0% 0.183 0.4717 -0.585
Rituals of Terror 3 18 25.0% 43.28 88.89% 0.115 0.133 0.027
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.3
Second Wave 0 344 46.04% 27.85 77.62% 0.199 0.7398 -0.462
Varied Terrains 2 6 83.33% 19.67 16.67% -0.086 0.4186
Ward the Shores 2 32 53.13% 31.13 40.63% -0.836 0.3477 -0.919

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 155 31.14 58.06% 0.208 2.0581 -0.469
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 29.97 53.73% -0.314 1.3305 -0.421
All Things Weaken 82 34.05 59.76% -0.875 1.1086 -0.754
Back Against the Wall 165 31.44 60.0% 0.069 1.9177 -0.573
Disintegrating Ecosystem 179 25.5 47.49% -1.407 0.5548 -0.666
Downward Spiral 362 23.62 55.25% -1.049 0.8671 -0.564
Erosion of Will 162 28.7 51.85% -0.571 1.4933 -1.025
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 33.51 94.29% 0.267 0.786
Memory Fades to Dust 358 21.79 50.28% -1.034 0.9653 -1.342
Power Corrodes the Spirit 96 31.52 59.38% -0.568 1.325 -0.192
Promising Farmlands 180 25.67 50.56% -0.377 1.6173 -0.53
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 34.4 92.5% -0.985 -0.5424 0.356
Thriving Communities 117 28.33 58.12% -1.12 0.8283 -1.224
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.01
Unnatural Proliferation 116 31.84 62.93% -0.729 1.1711 -0.911
Untended Land Crumbles 102 31.26 53.92% -1.288 0.7066 -0.541

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1940 44.4% 27.9 75.41% -0.275 0.4772 0.523
B 2019 45.04% 27.98 76.32% 0.127 0.8108 -0.08
C 1973 43.65% 28.73 75.52% 0.129 0.672 -0.377
D 1960 44.19% 28.52 76.43% -0.084 0.6593 -0.164
E 706 49.28% 34.41 75.35% 0.967 1.5652 0.415
F 1021 38.75% 29.98 80.31% -0.377 0.3074 0.141
G 953 40.39% 28.85 76.92% -0.159 0.5535 -0.356
H 937 43.49% 29.09 79.62% -0.314 0.3379 -0.088

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 282 0.0% 15.5 59.93% -0.793 1.247
Not Using Events or Tokens 1555 20.27% 22.94 85.53% 0.06 0.2709 -0.693
Skip Initial Invader Actions 134 19.32% 35.1 93.28% 0.093 0.0001
Start of Game Growth 192 25.97% 34.61 91.67% 0.015 -0.7052 0.112
Unlimited Undo 524 37.86% 31.52 85.69% 0.817 0.1326 0.916
Using Tokens but Not Events 510 44.47% 25.83 73.33% 0.052 -0.0464 0.098

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 996 22.6 48.8%
II 2065 31.02 69.69%
III 1921 34.58 89.38%
IV 776 37.82 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 486
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1689
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1395
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 766
Lose: Invader deck ran out 54
Lose: Adversary condition 260
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 62
Lose: Blight pool ran out 923
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-13 02:58:21 (Pacific Time)