Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 29.17% 26.58 87.5%
Blitz 0 78 32.89% 25.33 75.64% -0.336
Dahan Insurrection 4 120 40.0% 48.13 33.33%
Despicable Theft 2 6 66.67% 40.83 66.67% 0.441
Elemental Invocation 1 35 71.43% 23.0 40.0% -0.422 0.0254
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 251 16.8% 36.83 74.5% 0.585 -0.0144 0.625
Powers Long Forgotten 1 52 67.31% 26.58 48.08% -0.252
Rituals of Terror 3 27 40.0% 37.85 77.78%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 18 88.89% 32.28 55.56%
Second Wave 0 657 35.33% 27.03 79.45% 0.956 1.0624 0.144
Varied Terrains 2 18 61.11% 33.17 50.0% -0.272
Ward the Shores 2 52 57.69% 27.79 42.31% -0.543 0.1397 -0.099

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 305 30.64 50.16% -0.145 0.1654 -0.235
Aid From Lesser Spirits 328 32.7 55.49% -0.787 -0.7734 0.148
All Things Weaken 207 32.59 56.52% -0.041 0.4333 -0.111
Attenuated Essence 74 39.96 62.16% 0.418
Back Against the Wall 263 32.49 58.17% 0.249 0.3786 0.114
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 57 40.04 61.4% -0.011 0.309 0.536
Burn Brightest Before the End 87 38.53 44.83% -0.824 -0.6475 -0.458
Disintegrating Ecosystem 302 26.9 48.34% -0.069 0.3118 0.06
Downward Spiral 676 23.33 54.88% 0.189 0.3825 -0.137
Erosion of Will 262 30.44 50.0% -0.202 0.1356 0.077
Intensifying Exploitation 70 33.54 54.29% 0.126 0.4785 -0.284
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 71 34.03 80.28% 0.491
Memory Fades to Dust 674 22.37 48.66% -1.03 -0.7011 -0.351
Power Corrodes the Spirit 222 32.34 62.16% 0.009 0.2756 -0.292
Promising Farmlands 328 25.8 44.82% 0.201 0.6481 -0.296
Shattered Fragments of Power 63 40.92 55.56% -0.574 -0.5746 0.143
Slow Dissolution of Will 64 31.31 45.31% 0.405 0.8158 0.177
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 36.99 85.51% 0.238
The Border of Life and Death 7 33.0 57.14%
Thriving Communities 220 27.63 53.18% -0.047 0.2308 0.854
Thriving Crops 19 38.74 68.42% 0.183 0.088 -0.366
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21%
Unnatural Proliferation 256 34.8 64.06% 0.362 0.5663 0.508
Untended Land Crumbles 209 30.92 50.24% 0.453 0.7526 -0.283

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3543 45.58% 25.72 64.8% -0.042 0.9495 0.486
B 3785 47.16% 26.9 66.5% -0.352 0.5127 -0.535
C 3681 45.95% 27.62 66.53% -0.283 0.4694 -0.307
D 3551 45.39% 26.2 66.57% 0.01 0.9543 -0.194
E 1873 48.36% 32.66 71.92% 0.395 1.1494 0.496
F 2027 47.13% 30.78 71.58% -0.257 0.6177 0.079
G 1732 45.83% 27.95 68.94% 0.049 0.9114 -0.197
H 1917 47.43% 29.21 70.58% 0.49 1.2974 0.172

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 552 0.0% 12.54 47.28% -0.413 0.3074
Not Using Events or Tokens 2487 28.3% 18.93 68.88% -0.304 0.17 -0.636
Skip Initial Invader Actions 238 21.19% 29.97 79.41% -0.02 -0.8246
Start of Game Growth 360 26.5% 29.94 78.89% 0.416 -0.1511 -0.061
Unlimited Undo 944 37.94% 28.12 75.74% -0.566 -0.5384 -0.07
Using Tokens but Not Events 1148 39.22% 23.91 72.56% 0.44 0.4123 0.627

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2334 12.25 22.45%
II 3679 29.91 64.28%
III 3650 34.94 88.03%
IV 1396 38.9 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 524
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3171
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2306
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1379
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1002
Lose: Invader deck ran out 105
Lose: Adversary condition 586
Win: Sacrifice victory 26
Lose: Scenario condition 54
Win: Scenario condition 85
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1703
Lose: Spirit destroyed 118

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)