Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 29.61 1.674 100.0% 0.128 0.5493
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 36 52.78% 28.08 -1.016 72.22% 0.329 0.636
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 32 64.52% 36.06 68.75%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 80.0% 36.39 -4.898 65.79% -0.467 0.8459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 95.24% 40.95 61.9%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 71.43% 42.93 -7.139 50.0% -0.546 1.4707
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 88 82.95% 37.84 -1.743 34.09% -0.916 1.3869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 165 36.36% 24.35 -4.539 86.67% 0.075 -0.075
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 146 45.83% 28.1 0.648 78.77% -0.293 -0.5893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 148 48.28% 38.12 1.351 85.81% -0.523 -0.4212
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 127 55.91% 43.57 4.78 82.68% -0.011 0.292
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 72 43.66% 48.32 12.623 87.5% 0.314 0.7213
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 34 58.82% 49.12 61.76%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 85 77.65% 45.93 2.512 51.76% -0.687 0.8025
The Kingdom of England 0 1 122 37.5% 23.8 -1.566 82.79% -0.078 0.4002
The Kingdom of England 1 3 96 35.79% 32.59 -2.625 81.25% -0.8 -0.2279
The Kingdom of England 2 4 113 55.75% 30.75 0.328 64.6% -0.45 0.6564
The Kingdom of England 3 6 104 74.76% 33.6 7.352 51.92% 0.6 2.181
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 58.04% 42.3 2.058 60.84% -0.559 0.9014
The Kingdom of England 5 9 31 80.65% 37.19 2.129 38.71% -0.487 1.6646
The Kingdom of England 6 11 178 66.85% 51.93 16.229 58.99% 0.325 2.7463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 61 50.85% 27.51 83.61%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 55 70.37% 26.8 -6.771 61.82% -1.057 0.112
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 59 55.93% 31.56 -3.436 49.15% -1.438 0.6246
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 55 76.36% 46.25 3.419 67.27% -0.215 2.0278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 45 68.89% 36.64 4.743 40.0% -0.125 1.849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 24 54.17% 42.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 267 71.16% 52.3 4.516 42.32% -1.481 0.7176
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 25.0% 31.13 -0.491 100.0% 0.235 0.064
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 62.5% 26.75 3.91 62.5% 0.13 1.0934
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 77.78% 17.78 -4.753 11.11% -0.617 0.4367
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 44.44% 49.0 8.73 100.0% 0.49 1.2693
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 50.0% 49.5 12.117 83.33% 0.133 1.2114
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 88.89% 28.67 -5.76 22.22% -0.514 0.7829
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 115 86.96% 45.65 5.676 37.39% -0.977 0.7227
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 94 58.7% 21.77 1.08 78.72% -0.022 0.0617
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 80 36.25% 28.75 1.154 87.5% -0.182 -0.1374
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 92 42.86% 32.75 80.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 89 61.8% 38.78 79.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 87 68.6% 33.98 4.587 56.32% 0.287 1.2724
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 34 73.53% 40.59 -1.293 61.76% -0.747 0.5153
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 113 76.99% 43.65 -1.393 55.75% -1.409 -0.3154
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 41.67% 22.5 79.17%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 26.25 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 25 60.0% 33.04 5.938 68.0% 0.616 1.0131
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 20 70.0% 41.7 -0.366 70.0% -0.269 1.0604
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 75.0% 43.31 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 42.73 -5.923 45.45% -0.724 1.1524
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 101 71.29% 49.09 27.72%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0%
Blitz 0 46 39.13% 29.48 80.43% 0.46
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 26.15% 52.52 40.0% -2.004
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 26.7 80.0% 0.128 0.7783 0.331
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 145 18.62% 42.95 83.45% -0.179 -0.0597 -0.888
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 71.43% 26.48 71.43% -0.446 0.1512 -0.695
Rituals of Terror 3 19 29.41% 42.21 89.47% 0.076
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.503
Second Wave 0 380 44.27% 27.47 77.89% 0.491 1.0029 -0.539
Varied Terrains 2 6 83.33% 19.67 16.67%
Ward the Shores 2 35 54.29% 30.57 42.86% 0.23 0.9509 -1.228

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 180 31.83 53.89% -0.752 1.1971 -0.73
Aid From Lesser Spirits 232 31.19 55.17% 0.154 1.9478 -0.297
All Things Weaken 98 34.57 60.2% 0.311 2.3954 -0.731
Back Against the Wall 187 31.24 58.29% -0.234 1.6475 -0.718
Disintegrating Ecosystem 195 26.1 48.21% -0.854 1.2182 -0.728
Downward Spiral 397 24.04 55.42% -1.53 0.3506 -0.445
Erosion of Will 183 29.17 49.18% -0.838 1.2508 -1.123
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 33.07 88.1% -0.224 0.3832 -0.615
Memory Fades to Dust 398 22.55 49.5% -1.212 0.8444 -1.324
Power Corrodes the Spirit 112 31.73 56.25% -1.339 0.5804 -0.527
Promising Farmlands 197 26.23 48.22% -1.674 0.3664 -0.729
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 37.26 89.36% 0.255 0.6936 0.373
Thriving Communities 132 28.03 55.3% -0.585 1.4896 -1.019
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.087
Unnatural Proliferation 136 32.27 58.82% -0.759 1.1973 -1.039
Untended Land Crumbles 115 31.75 52.17% -0.199 1.8096 -0.468

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2091 45.82% 28.12 74.46% -0.05 0.7679 0.415
B 2159 46.1% 28.2 75.64% -0.183 0.5783 0.107
C 2138 45.14% 29.11 74.6% 0.09 0.6435 -0.167
D 2113 45.49% 28.59 75.39% -0.056 0.7106 -0.23
E 836 50.31% 34.6 73.8% 0.077 0.7035 0.31
F 1117 41.11% 30.5 78.6% 0.116 0.8378 0.028
G 1041 41.56% 29.21 75.6% -0.101 0.5812 -0.298
H 1033 44.91% 29.36 78.03% 0.119 0.8001 -0.148

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 297 0.0% 15.7 60.27% -0.778 1.4351
Not Using Events or Tokens 1617 21.63% 22.86 84.79% 0.004 0.2042 -0.823
Skip Initial Invader Actions 138 20.0% 34.72 93.48% 0.078 -1.1657
Start of Game Growth 202 27.16% 35.23 92.08% 0.498 0.1194 0.09
Unlimited Undo 565 38.67% 31.93 85.66% 0.69 0.2136 1.052
Using Tokens but Not Events 566 43.66% 25.64 73.85% 0.242 0.4147 -0.198

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1082 22.69 45.19%
II 2255 31.12 68.51%
III 2091 34.69 89.29%
IV 841 37.96 99.41%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 489
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1837
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1501
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 830
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 317
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 35
Win: Scenario condition 64
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1038
Lose: Spirit destroyed 81

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)