Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0%
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.058 0.3966 0.452
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.205 -0.0351 -1.782
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 26.7 80.0% 0.095 0.9269 0.354
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 149 18.12% 42.15 81.88% -0.495 -0.8615 -0.876
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 72.73% 28.45 72.73% -0.431 0.036 -0.437
Rituals of Terror 3 19 29.41% 42.21 89.47% 0.115
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.401
Second Wave 0 393 44.59% 27.64 78.37% 0.958 1.1456 -0.517
Varied Terrains 2 7 85.71% 25.86 28.57% 0.121 0.7279
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.593 1.4531 -1.065

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 181 32.02 54.14% -0.226 0.745 -0.701
Aid From Lesser Spirits 236 31.39 55.08% 0.638 1.4231 -0.402
All Things Weaken 101 33.88 58.42% -0.114 0.9738 -0.807
Attenuated Essence 2 61.5 100.0% 0.485 1.3718 0.374
Back Against the Wall 190 31.36 58.42% -0.356 0.4728 -0.789
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 75.0% -0.008 1.2428 -0.049
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 68.2 100.0% 0.84 1.7813 0.788
Disintegrating Ecosystem 198 26.16 47.98% -1.087 0.0321 -0.741
Downward Spiral 405 23.92 55.8% -1.031 -0.0679 -0.403
Erosion of Will 187 29.42 50.27% -0.427 0.6888 -1.042
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 33.07 88.1% 0.011 -0.1045 -0.717
Memory Fades to Dust 404 22.54 49.26% -0.805 0.3083 -1.311
Power Corrodes the Spirit 113 32.07 56.64% -1.292 -0.3362 -0.503
Promising Farmlands 199 26.4 48.74% -1.464 -0.3286 -0.646
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 50.0 66.67% -0.263 0.6589 0.112
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 42.0 33.33% -0.188 1.0819 -0.271
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 37.06 87.5% -0.117 -0.4049 0.042
Thriving Communities 137 27.93 55.47% -0.668 0.4788 -1.118
Thriving Crops 2 62.5 100.0% 0.587 1.4633 0.631
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.053
Unnatural Proliferation 140 32.88 59.29% -0.149 0.8161 -0.915
Untended Land Crumbles 119 31.94 52.94% -0.109 0.9231 -0.521

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2132 46.03% 28.24 74.34% -0.081 0.7889 0.395
B 2202 46.45% 28.38 75.57% 0.112 0.8795 0.088
C 2178 45.29% 29.18 74.56% 0.385 0.9798 -0.144
D 2143 45.68% 28.64 75.27% -0.304 0.5164 -0.217
E 873 50.35% 34.66 73.65% 0.095 0.7476 0.237
F 1149 41.43% 30.56 78.15% -0.322 0.4094 0.079
G 1063 42.26% 29.41 75.35% -0.084 0.632 -0.317
H 1047 44.69% 29.34 78.03% 0.21 0.9067 -0.107

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 300 0.0% 15.67 60.0% -1.3 0.1877
Not Using Events or Tokens 1631 22.17% 22.78 84.55% 0.035 0.2265 -0.827
Skip Initial Invader Actions 138 20.0% 34.72 93.48%
Start of Game Growth 202 27.16% 35.23 92.08% 0.118 -0.3542 0.026
Unlimited Undo 571 38.27% 31.97 85.81% 0.715 0.4631 1.027
Using Tokens but Not Events 585 43.31% 25.69 73.85% 0.079 0.0802 -0.315

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1109 22.19 44.09%
II 2295 31.1 68.67%
III 2133 34.71 89.31%
IV 860 37.97 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 489
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1874
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1530
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 849
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 17
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 323
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1050
Lose: Spirit destroyed 83

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)