Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 30.33 100.0% 0.936 0.6706 0.183
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.174 0.3306 0.469
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.249 -0.0185 -1.882
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0% 0.214 0.9764
Elemental Invocation 1 11 27.27% 29.55 81.82% 0.17 0.9308 0.385
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 152 19.08% 42.08 81.58% -0.675 -1.3079 -0.646
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 75.0% 28.25 75.0% 0.555 1.0888 -0.361
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% -0.462 -0.3598 0.12
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.46
Second Wave 0 411 44.33% 27.59 78.35% 0.15 0.2163 -0.521
Varied Terrains 2 10 70.0% 30.1 40.0% 0.337 0.9158 0.091
Ward the Shores 2 38 57.89% 30.26 42.11% 0.002 1.1574 -1.023

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 195 31.8 52.82% -0.392 -0.202 -0.649
Aid From Lesser Spirits 245 31.9 55.92% 0.484 0.4204 -0.236
All Things Weaken 112 33.54 56.25% -1.051 -0.6645 -0.783
Attenuated Essence 14 37.86 64.29% 0.217 0.3227 0.33
Back Against the Wall 198 31.87 58.59% 0.078 0.1401 -0.624
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 46.58 58.33% 0.079 0.3621 -0.523
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 43.81 50.0% 0.015 0.2056 0.25
Disintegrating Ecosystem 212 26.46 49.06% 0.024 0.4554 -0.617
Downward Spiral 427 23.66 55.04% -0.262 -0.0015 -0.308
Erosion of Will 194 29.93 51.03% 0.649 0.978 -0.857
Intensifying Exploitation 5 47.2 60.0% -0.121 0.1773 0.181
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 44 34.52 88.64% 0.568 0.0692 -0.49
Memory Fades to Dust 423 23.33 49.65% 0.002 0.3959 -1.144
Power Corrodes the Spirit 122 31.87 56.56% -0.277 -0.0319 -0.372
Promising Farmlands 207 26.61 48.31% -0.255 0.2317 -0.62
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 46.67 72.22% 0.609 0.6853 0.584
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 47.7 70.0% 0.667 1.1016 0.096
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 37.78 87.76% -0.241 -0.8732 0.229
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.184 -0.545
Thriving Communities 144 27.79 55.56% 0.231 0.6085 -1.072
Thriving Crops 4 61.75 100.0% 1.031 0.9747 0.886
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 150 33.9 61.33% 1.024 1.2247 -0.753
Untended Land Crumbles 134 30.78 50.75% -1.026 -0.7568 -0.317

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2249 46.5% 27.97 72.65% -0.477 0.3853 0.379
B 2346 47.03% 28.44 74.21% 0.076 0.9036 -0.047
C 2302 45.94% 29.28 73.41% 0.179 0.8668 -0.163
D 2260 45.81% 28.69 74.82% 0.165 0.9927 -0.169
E 959 51.01% 34.92 73.51% 0.412 1.0698 0.327
F 1221 42.53% 30.56 76.74% -0.349 0.4037 0.03
G 1119 43.76% 29.56 74.8% 0.071 0.8411 -0.256
H 1136 44.57% 29.37 76.94% -0.062 0.6276 -0.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 311 0.0% 15.4 59.16% -0.674 0.1512
Not Using Events or Tokens 1661 22.78% 22.61 83.8% -0.227 0.1102 -0.436
Skip Initial Invader Actions 144 19.79% 34.26 91.67% -0.8 -1.4075
Start of Game Growth 212 26.9% 34.97 91.04% 0.216 -0.0614 0.098
Unlimited Undo 587 37.72% 31.62 85.18% 0.49 0.49 0.975
Using Tokens but Not Events 635 42.76% 25.54 73.86% 0.974 0.9039 -0.211

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1200 20.73 40.92%
II 2420 31.02 67.85%
III 2262 34.75 88.95%
IV 917 38.04 99.45%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 491
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1980
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1596
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 906
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 78
Lose: Invader deck ran out 66
Lose: Adversary condition 371
Win: Sacrifice victory 17
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1102
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)