Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18 33.33% 30.5 0.888 100.0% 0.84 1.1228
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 25 56.0% 26.12 -0.416 64.0% -0.805 -0.4111
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 19 61.11% 39.21 6.249 84.21% 0.303 1.1639
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 27 75.0% 36.67 5.321 66.67% -0.233 1.0173
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 88.89% 38.33 6.247 55.56% -0.412 1.1225
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 43.0 8.743 50.0% -0.568 1.4997
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 72.41% 56.24 13.611 75.86% -0.481 1.5964
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 106 39.62% 23.58 -1.245 83.96% 0.033 0.0755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 98 46.39% 28.07 1.017 77.55% -0.087 -0.1127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 83 51.22% 38.11 5.802 87.95% 0.569 0.5695
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 67 61.19% 43.61 8.642 85.07% 0.46 0.7524
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 58 42.11% 48.09 10.634 86.21% 0.067 0.437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 23 56.52% 46.43 10.186 60.87% -0.861 -0.0233
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 62 82.26% 42.47 8.036 45.16% -1.325 -0.0766
The Kingdom of England 0 1 81 36.25% 24.1 -1.261 85.19% 0.11 0.4405
The Kingdom of England 1 3 59 35.59% 31.85 2.516 79.66% -0.298 0.1914
The Kingdom of England 2 4 67 53.73% 29.3 1.579 61.19% -0.914 0.0509
The Kingdom of England 3 6 60 71.19% 33.78 3.725 51.67% -1.29 0.2896
The Kingdom of England 4 7 114 53.51% 44.91 7.985 66.67% -0.827 0.6874
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 78.26% 37.39 6.178 39.13% -1.391 0.6797
The Kingdom of England 6 11 116 64.66% 49.41 10.536 56.03% -1.499 0.7585
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 52 47.06% 27.85 0.459 84.62% 0.287 0.8121
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 36 68.57% 27.86 1.164 66.67% -0.36 0.5286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36 55.56% 30.75 2.229 47.22% -1.586 0.5413
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 29 75.86% 45.97 9.539 65.52% -0.218 1.9665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 65.0% 38.05 6.123 45.0% -1.35 0.8012
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 20 55.0% 41.35 7.22 40.0% -1.686 0.14
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 77 67.53% 47.62 10.101 42.86% -1.779 0.3489
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 58 58.93% 21.0 -1.946 81.03% 0.411 0.4993
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 49 36.73% 27.51 0.631 81.63% -0.074 -0.0628
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 53 41.51% 29.17 1.403 75.47% -0.514 -0.2943
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 54 59.26% 38.11 5.989 77.78% -0.069 0.2138
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 56 71.43% 33.89 3.887 55.36% -0.815 -0.0443
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 75.0% 47.75 10.833 81.25% 0.345 1.5127
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 81.69% 41.38 7.616 59.15% -0.383 0.7483
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.67 -2.297 75.0% -0.223 -0.346
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 71.43% 23.29 -1.373 42.86% -0.863 -0.148
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 71.43% 29.0 0.771 57.14% -0.71 -0.2719
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 75.0% 44.0 7.668 75.0% -0.236 1.0235
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 59.0 14.477 100.0% 0.47 1.6101
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 80.0% 40.4 6.839 40.0% -0.74 1.3202
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 23 95.65% 48.65 10.587 47.83% -1.346 0.5892

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 44 34.09% 27.89 -1.096 70.45% -0.884 -0.3069
Dahan Insurrection 4 69 52.17% 42.38 6.592 55.07% -0.579 -0.1781
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 36.0 2.697 100.0% 0.095 0.476
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 143 16.08% 42.58 5.04 86.71% -0.252 0.1139
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 23.9 -1.444 65.0% -0.258 0.1836
Rituals of Terror 3 23 38.1% 40.17 5.421 69.57% -0.59 0.0377
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -1.071 23.08% -1.04 -0.3904
Second Wave 0 218 49.07% 27.39 -0.284 75.69% -0.256 0.1602
Ward the Shores 2 29 62.07% 31.9 0.269 34.48% -1.337 -0.3008

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 102 28.54 -1.558 54.9% -2.015 0.0556
Aid From Lesser Spirits 132 29.33 -1.347 54.55% -2.172 -0.2537
All Things Weaken 44 38.43 1.382 65.91% -1.465 0.6893
Back Against the Wall 128 29.54 -0.622 62.5% -1.619 0.4768
Disintegrating Ecosystem 129 24.36 -3.516 51.16% -2.229 -0.0052
Downward Spiral 247 22.54 -3.299 55.47% -2.388 -0.3711
Erosion of Will 95 28.66 -1.626 55.79% -1.953 0.2562
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 31.91 0.632 90.91% -0.223 0.4817
Memory Fades to Dust 269 21.33 -3.988 49.07% -2.743 -0.5283
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 30.03 -0.974 68.42% -1.635 0.3851
Promising Farmlands 123 25.4 -2.769 48.78% -2.136 0.0768
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 36.65 2.076 94.12% 0.147 0.5822
Thriving Communities 58 28.17 -1.795 63.79% -2.004 0.0941
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -3.885 37.21% -2.516 -0.2981
Unnatural Proliferation 60 32.22 -0.128 66.67% -1.817 0.2606
Untended Land Crumbles 44 31.57 -1.003 59.09% -1.907 0.1912

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1432 42.03% 27.31 -0.405 76.26% -0.117 -1.2063
B 1487 43.16% 27.19 -0.452 76.66% -0.078 -1.2633
C 1422 41.05% 28.1 -0.013 77.43% -0.068 -1.4833
D 1398 42.33% 27.64 -0.111 78.97% 0.043 -1.1338
E 324 46.5% 33.4 1.184 81.17% 0.145 -1.1321
F 689 31.13% 29.36 0.5 84.47% 0.101 -1.1422
G 630 34.21% 28.95 0.251 80.95% -0.115 -1.3451
H 646 37.54% 28.88 0.255 82.35% 0.115 -1.1252

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 198 0.0% 16.29 -5.062 64.65% -2.71 -0.666
Not Using Events or Tokens 1299 16.78% 23.52 -1.361 88.68% 0.694 0.9133
Skip Initial Invader Actions 88 17.46% 36.17 2.966 90.91% 0.343 -0.3613
Start of Game Growth 137 25.0% 35.0 2.385 90.51% 0.711 0.257
Unlimited Undo 325 39.93% 31.74 1.324 83.69% 0.413 0.0011
Using Tokens but Not Events 350 47.92% 26.13 -1.012 71.14% 0.079 0.0309

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 765 22.34 61.05%
II 1511 30.75 72.2%
III 1248 34.26 89.58%
IV 490 37.47 99.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 388
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 873
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 809
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 366
Lose: Invader deck ran out 37
Lose: Adversary condition 150
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 610
Lose: Spirit destroyed 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)