Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 18 33.33% 30.5 0.833 100.0% 0.82 1.1002
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 25 56.0% 26.12 -0.413 64.0% -0.787 -0.4142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 19 61.11% 39.21 6.151 84.21% 0.308 1.1552
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 26 73.91% 36.31 5.145 65.38% -0.243 0.9943
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 88.89% 38.33 6.208 55.56% -0.398 1.124
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 43.0 8.689 50.0% -0.558 1.4702
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 72.41% 56.24 13.531 75.86% -0.455 1.6372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 102 41.18% 23.42 -1.306 83.33% 0.028 0.0748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 95 45.74% 28.16 1.047 77.89% -0.091 -0.1194
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 78 50.65% 38.44 5.887 88.46% 0.616 0.6138
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 61 59.02% 43.82 8.77 85.25% 0.459 0.7431
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 58 42.11% 48.09 10.628 86.21% 0.076 0.454
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 23 56.52% 46.43 10.176 60.87% -0.864 -0.0307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 59 81.36% 43.34 8.522 47.46% -1.175 0.0746
The Kingdom of England 0 1 76 38.16% 23.92 -1.353 84.21% 0.062 0.3949
The Kingdom of England 1 3 57 35.09% 31.75 2.44 78.95% -0.345 0.1378
The Kingdom of England 2 4 67 53.73% 29.3 1.568 61.19% -0.924 0.0335
The Kingdom of England 3 6 58 70.18% 34.26 4.006 53.45% -1.239 0.3386
The Kingdom of England 4 7 113 53.98% 44.83 7.929 66.37% -0.822 0.6998
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 78.26% 37.39 6.172 39.13% -1.361 0.7024
The Kingdom of England 6 11 111 63.96% 49.63 10.605 56.76% -1.453 0.802
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 50 48.98% 27.7 0.446 84.0% 0.284 0.8079
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 36 68.57% 27.86 1.152 66.67% -0.362 0.5288
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 34 55.88% 30.68 2.22 47.06% -1.585 0.543
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 27 74.07% 47.11 10.117 66.67% -0.096 2.0903
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 65.0% 38.05 6.132 45.0% -1.337 0.8085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 19 57.89% 39.84 6.52 36.84% -1.719 0.0992
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 64 67.19% 45.06 8.975 37.5% -1.908 0.2267
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 57 60.0% 20.93 -1.973 80.7% 0.416 0.5013
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 49 36.73% 27.51 0.631 81.63% -0.067 -0.0573
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 52 42.31% 29.04 1.391 75.0% -0.523 -0.3057
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 53 60.38% 38.06 6.004 77.36% -0.057 0.2272
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 56 71.43% 33.89 3.902 55.36% -0.812 -0.0343
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 75.0% 47.75 10.811 81.25% 0.342 1.5066
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 68 80.88% 41.38 7.672 58.82% -0.382 0.7501
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.67 -2.246 75.0% -0.193 -0.31
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 6 66.67% 25.5 -0.735 50.0% -0.739 -0.0509
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 71.43% 29.0 0.836 57.14% -0.679 -0.2426
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 75.0% 44.0 7.593 75.0% -0.216 1.0586
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 59.0 14.546 100.0% 0.499 1.6566
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 80.0% 40.4 6.715 40.0% -0.74 1.2963
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 22 95.45% 49.59 11.012 50.0% -1.216 0.7339

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 40 32.5% 27.38 -1.338 70.0% -0.921 -0.3489
Dahan Insurrection 4 68 51.47% 42.62 6.726 55.88% -0.575 -0.1742
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 39.0 3.043 100.0% 0.077 0.5424
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 142 15.49% 42.78 5.134 86.62% -0.255 0.1199
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 23.9 -1.447 65.0% -0.291 0.1565
Rituals of Terror 3 23 38.1% 40.17 5.388 69.57% -0.611 0.0109
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -1.129 23.08% -1.079 -0.4547
Second Wave 0 212 50.0% 27.17 -0.366 75.0% -0.257 0.1619
Ward the Shores 2 29 62.07% 31.9 0.396 34.48% -1.317 -0.2864

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 99 28.85 -1.482 55.56% -1.995 0.0728
Aid From Lesser Spirits 130 29.45 -1.307 54.62% -2.194 -0.2773
All Things Weaken 39 36.1 0.306 64.1% -1.634 0.5258
Back Against the Wall 125 29.89 -0.427 63.2% -1.576 0.5163
Disintegrating Ecosystem 122 23.4 -3.916 49.18% -2.314 -0.0927
Downward Spiral 240 22.3 -3.419 55.42% -2.405 -0.3908
Erosion of Will 93 27.81 -1.954 54.84% -1.986 0.2257
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 33.5 1.401 90.0% -0.24 0.4723
Memory Fades to Dust 262 21.22 -4.022 48.85% -2.751 -0.5354
Power Corrodes the Spirit 35 30.14 -0.669 71.43% -1.461 0.5584
Promising Farmlands 119 25.18 -2.733 49.58% -2.094 0.1201
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 36.65 2.161 94.12% 0.151 0.568
Thriving Communities 58 28.17 -1.778 63.79% -2.002 0.1046
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -3.881 37.21% -2.536 -0.3198
Unnatural Proliferation 55 32.38 -0.096 65.45% -1.882 0.1978
Untended Land Crumbles 41 32.27 -0.761 60.98% -1.826 0.2692

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1387 41.53% 27.13 -0.42 76.5% -0.101 -1.1744
B 1451 42.92% 27.12 -0.452 76.64% -0.086 -1.2499
C 1386 41.25% 28.04 -0.02 77.27% -0.07 -1.4665
D 1361 42.13% 27.52 -0.16 78.91% 0.015 -1.1427
E 302 46.94% 33.88 1.418 80.79% 0.158 -1.0991
F 669 30.76% 29.26 0.454 85.05% 0.129 -1.0973
G 612 33.56% 29.02 0.297 81.05% -0.127 -1.3396
H 628 37.44% 28.88 0.277 82.32% 0.107 -1.1142

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 191 0.0% 16.17 -5.13 63.87% -2.75 -0.7115
Not Using Events or Tokens 1279 16.47% 23.52 -1.364 88.74% 0.689 0.9096
Skip Initial Invader Actions 86 18.03% 36.36 3.113 90.7% 0.406 -0.3001
Start of Game Growth 133 25.0% 34.81 2.271 90.23% 0.638 0.1791
Unlimited Undo 316 40.23% 31.74 1.314 83.54% 0.397 -0.0051
Using Tokens but Not Events 341 48.04% 26.27 -0.951 70.97% 0.092 0.0461

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 754 22.34 61.8%
II 1470 30.71 72.18%
III 1199 34.23 89.57%
IV 475 37.48 99.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 387
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 829
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 779
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 351
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 146
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 594
Lose: Spirit destroyed 31

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)