Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 27 37.04% 29.44 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 36 52.78% 28.08 3.471 72.22% 0.658 0.9983
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 32 64.52% 36.06 -8.219 68.75% -0.575 0.5155
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 36 81.82% 36.92 -6.64 66.67% -0.427 0.9814
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 95.24% 40.95 61.9%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 71.43% 42.93 -3.206 50.0% -0.497 1.3838
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 86 82.56% 38.24 -1.046 34.88% -1.686 0.4908
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 161 36.02% 24.32 -4.951 86.34% -0.274 -0.2615
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 143 45.77% 28.11 -0.833 79.02% -0.262 -0.5545
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 144 47.89% 38.5 2.953 86.81% 0.193 0.3691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 123 56.1% 43.71 6.538 82.93% 0.142 0.5401
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 71 44.29% 48.27 7.669 87.32% -0.028 0.3585
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 34 58.82% 49.12 9.325 61.76% 0.102 1.2617
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 84 77.38% 46.18 13.079 52.38% 0.029 1.4925
The Kingdom of England 0 1 119 37.61% 23.8 -4.564 83.19% 0.055 0.5754
The Kingdom of England 1 3 92 35.16% 32.89 5.441 82.61% 0.167 0.817
The Kingdom of England 2 4 109 56.88% 30.74 -0.969 64.22% -0.345 0.7837
The Kingdom of England 3 6 103 74.51% 33.46 -0.546 51.46% -0.571 1.136
The Kingdom of England 4 7 141 58.87% 42.16 0.75 60.28% -0.173 1.3083
The Kingdom of England 5 9 29 79.31% 37.07 37.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 174 66.67% 51.93 14.0 59.2% -0.074 2.5166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 61 50.85% 27.51 4.882 83.61% 0.081 0.7655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 54 71.7% 26.8 -4.951 62.96% -0.928 0.0879
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 54 53.7% 32.26 -8.115 51.85% -0.385 1.7618
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 53 77.36% 46.6 12.882 67.92% 0.308 2.4894
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 43 69.77% 36.63 9.952 39.53% 0.304 2.6499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 24 54.17% 42.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 216 66.67% 54.38 12.701 47.69% -0.052 2.1358
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 14.29% 30.71 -0.459 100.0% 0.29 0.3142
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 8 62.5% 26.75 2.574 62.5% 0.053 0.955
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 8 75.0% 17.88 1.137 12.5% 0.095 1.102
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 46.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 60.0% 47.8 10.073 80.0% 0.416 1.7369
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 88.89% 28.67 -4.647 22.22% -1.158 0.0715
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 72 88.89% 46.53 12.992 47.22% 0.336 1.836
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 90 57.95% 21.51 -2.826 78.89% -0.409 -0.2354
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 78 35.9% 28.64 0.397 87.18% 0.185 0.3621
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 92 42.86% 32.75 -0.665 80.43% -0.483 -0.1848
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 89 61.8% 38.78 -0.651 79.78% -0.472 -0.0553
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 85 67.86% 33.69 2.019 55.29% -0.476 0.5481
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 32 71.88% 40.84 0.281 62.5% -0.58 0.406
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 107 76.64% 44.3 -2.316 58.88% -1.414 -0.2986
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 41.67% 22.5 79.17%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 26.25 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 21 66.67% 31.29 3.753 66.67% 0.375 0.7296
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 19 68.42% 43.05 6.92 73.68% -0.015 1.2012
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 75.0% 43.31 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 42.73 -2.603 45.45% -0.689 1.4105
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 101 71.29% 49.09 -0.553 27.72% -2.432 -0.4756

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0%
Blitz 0 46 39.13% 29.48 80.43% 0.2 0.5529 0.401
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 26.15% 52.52 40.0% -0.717 -0.4692 -2.045
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33% 0.081 0.6259
Elemental Invocation 1 9 22.22% 25.89 77.78% 0.235
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 139 18.71% 43.72 83.45% -0.724 -0.4872 -1.002
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 27.35 75.0% -0.673
Rituals of Terror 3 19 29.41% 42.21 89.47% 0.073 -0.2834 -0.02
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.475
Second Wave 0 360 45.1% 27.64 77.5% -0.314 0.3325 -0.434
Varied Terrains 2 6 83.33% 19.67 16.67%
Ward the Shores 2 33 54.55% 30.61 39.39% -0.567 0.3553 -1.063

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 171 31.83 55.56% -1.085 0.8888 -0.574
Aid From Lesser Spirits 219 30.44 53.88% -0.85 0.9037 -0.419
All Things Weaken 91 33.09 59.34% -0.581 1.421 -0.857
Back Against the Wall 180 31.23 58.89% -0.881 1.0621 -0.767
Disintegrating Ecosystem 191 26.14 48.17% -0.655 1.4909 -0.713
Downward Spiral 385 24.21 56.1% -0.398 1.5896 -0.459
Erosion of Will 177 29.01 49.72% -1.475 0.6103 -1.106
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 37 34.0 94.59% 0.286 0.8244 0.277
Memory Fades to Dust 378 22.06 50.26% -0.702 1.4454 -1.331
Power Corrodes the Spirit 106 32.28 58.49% -0.736 1.2344 -0.268
Promising Farmlands 188 26.21 50.53% -0.588 1.4844 -0.533
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 44 37.39 93.18% 0.398 0.8849 0.729
Thriving Communities 126 27.95 56.35% -1.151 0.8873 -1.026
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.044
Unnatural Proliferation 131 32.25 59.54% -1.078 0.8822 -1.046
Untended Land Crumbles 112 30.82 51.79% -1.569 0.4561 -0.559

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2041 45.46% 27.98 74.72% -0.27 0.4339 0.299
B 2110 45.88% 28.15 75.88% -0.25 0.4069 0.054
C 2080 44.74% 29.03 75.19% 0.351 0.7905 -0.195
D 2049 44.72% 28.58 76.28% 0.551 1.2438 -0.131
E 777 50.13% 34.31 74.26% -0.255 0.2583 0.361
F 1078 40.06% 30.24 79.68% 0.208 0.8663 0.078
G 1004 41.09% 29.0 76.29% 0.129 0.765 -0.299
H 1004 44.4% 29.2 78.49% -0.444 0.2032 -0.149

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 295 0.0% 15.64 60.34% -0.472 1.7645
Not Using Events or Tokens 1593 21.05% 22.87 85.06% -0.21 -0.0095 -0.747
Skip Initial Invader Actions 138 20.0% 34.72 93.48% 0.385 -0.4471
Start of Game Growth 201 27.33% 35.27 92.04% 0.694 0.234 0.138
Unlimited Undo 552 38.51% 31.78 85.69% 0.471 -0.1433 0.941
Using Tokens but Not Events 543 43.9% 25.73 74.03% 0.556 0.6959 0.031

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1035 22.64 47.15%
II 2189 31.07 68.94%
III 2035 34.65 89.24%
IV 817 37.9 99.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 488
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1788
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1465
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 806
Lose: Invader deck ran out 58
Lose: Adversary condition 279
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 62
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1001
Lose: Spirit destroyed 79

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-14 03:03:08 (Pacific Time)