Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 28 35.71% 29.61 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 47.5% 29.9 4.657 75.0% 0.637 1.0594
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 34 66.67% 34.44 -14.157 64.71% -0.832 -0.0765
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 80.0% 36.39 -4.122 65.79% -0.303 0.7805
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 95.24% 40.95 61.9%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 68.75% 43.06 7.187 50.0% -0.216 1.5781
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 98 83.67% 37.85 2.086 35.71% -0.854 1.2324
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 166 36.75% 24.34 -1.268 86.75% 0.393 0.442
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 152 45.33% 28.25 -0.006 78.95% -0.284 -0.3969
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 150 48.3% 38.53 5.218 86.0% 0.022 -0.0135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 129 55.81% 43.6 5.945 82.17% -0.026 0.3368
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 75 44.59% 48.65 13.409 88.0% 0.687 0.7329
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 47 70.21% 49.11 7.552 65.96% 0.075 0.6226
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 94 72.34% 44.32 2.183 51.06% -0.812 0.5909
The Kingdom of England 0 1 123 37.19% 23.81 -2.062 82.93% 0.071 0.2235
The Kingdom of England 1 3 102 35.0% 31.1 -6.532 76.47% -1.108 -0.838
The Kingdom of England 2 4 115 54.78% 30.93 2.87 65.22% 0.45 1.2759
The Kingdom of England 3 6 114 74.34% 34.41 5.016 53.51% -0.016 1.2498
The Kingdom of England 4 7 143 58.04% 42.3 10.125 60.84% 0.601 1.6801
The Kingdom of England 5 9 48 85.42% 35.6 -0.731 35.42% -1.457 0.1846
The Kingdom of England 6 11 182 67.03% 51.31 7.268 58.24% -0.429 1.6271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 62 50.0% 27.52 0.611 83.87% 0.244 0.5675
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 58 70.18% 25.79 -11.609 58.62% -0.91 0.1238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 61 57.38% 30.89 -2.287 47.54% -1.185 0.0738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 57 77.19% 46.58 5.021 68.42% -0.134 1.4136
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 51 60.78% 35.57 -0.997 37.25% -0.87 0.5661
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 24 54.17% 42.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 299 70.9% 52.88 7.829 45.15% -1.029 0.4909
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 12 25.0% 27.0 -5.082 91.67% 0.13 -0.076
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 66.67% 27.11 -5.778 55.56% -0.532 -0.0187
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 61.54% 21.92 -3.164 30.77% 0.01 0.4553
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 45.45% 50.91 11.135 100.0% 0.768 1.1575
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 16 50.0% 42.19 2.491 62.5% -0.814 -0.1558
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 13 76.92% 37.31 11.9 46.15% 0.665 1.5659
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 129 86.05% 45.74 6.522 38.76% -0.611 0.8069
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 96 58.51% 21.51 0.003 78.13% 0.41 0.5187
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 82 35.37% 28.8 3.894 87.8% 0.517 0.5262
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 95 43.01% 33.26 8.578 81.05% 0.807 1.0437
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 89 61.8% 38.78 79.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 94 67.74% 33.81 -1.326 55.32% -0.84 -0.0365
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 34 73.53% 40.59 61.76%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 131 77.86% 43.53 2.789 55.73% -0.821 0.0483
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 25 44.0% 22.4 -2.186 80.0% 0.148 0.0425
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 26.25 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 29 58.62% 34.17 4.077 72.41% 0.771 1.1217
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 20 70.0% 41.7 -10.54 70.0% -0.765 0.4443
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 70.59% 44.94 15.906 64.71% 0.17 1.306
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 72.73% 42.73 45.45%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 105 71.43% 49.14 7.443 29.52% -0.243 1.8137

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0%
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.118 0.3196 0.415
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.224 -0.0239 -1.576
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 26.7 80.0% 0.34
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 151 18.54% 41.92 81.46% -0.545 -1.2776 -0.654
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 72.73% 28.45 72.73% -0.15 0.3757 -0.216
Rituals of Terror 3 19 29.41% 42.21 89.47% 0.137
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.468
Second Wave 0 400 44.05% 27.7 78.75% 0.916 1.0293 -0.577
Varied Terrains 2 8 87.5% 25.63 25.0% -0.232 0.3884 -0.294
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.498 1.6167 -0.967

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2181 45.96% 28.09 73.64% -0.609 0.277 0.357
B 2265 46.49% 28.45 75.19% 0.247 1.0241 0.056
C 2230 45.66% 29.34 74.39% 0.443 1.0714 -0.139
D 2189 45.63% 28.7 75.15% 0.152 0.9822 -0.195
E 908 50.51% 34.81 73.79% 0.397 1.0409 0.291
F 1171 41.86% 30.64 77.88% -0.24 0.4984 0.06
G 1092 43.18% 29.48 75.0% -0.277 0.4893 -0.279
H 1094 44.92% 29.32 77.15% -0.102 0.5833 -0.138

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 301 0.0% 15.61 59.8% -1.245 -0.4187
Not Using Events or Tokens 1642 22.49% 22.73 84.35% -0.107 0.2091 -0.906
Skip Initial Invader Actions 142 19.15% 34.36 92.25% -0.671 -1.2257
Start of Game Growth 208 26.19% 35.05 91.35% -0.365 -0.7965 0.135
Unlimited Undo 576 37.88% 31.84 85.59% 0.861 0.7433 1.088
Using Tokens but Not Events 613 42.65% 25.56 74.06% 0.534 0.4547 -0.353

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1145 21.5 42.79%
II 2354 31.06 68.48%
III 2188 34.72 89.26%
IV 881 38.0 99.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 490
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1922
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1566
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 870
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 41
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 343
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1068
Lose: Spirit destroyed 86

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-21 03:39:51 (Pacific Time)