Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 8.33% 30.33 100.0% 0.638 0.3826 0.168
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.483
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% -1.905
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0% 0.156 0.9686
Elemental Invocation 1 11 27.27% 29.55 81.82% 0.086 0.7885 0.406
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 153 18.95% 42.22 81.7% 0.259 -0.3855 -0.641
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 75.0% 28.25 75.0% 0.301 0.9365 -0.396
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% -0.546 -0.4448 0.131
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.462
Second Wave 0 416 44.04% 27.62 78.61% 0.029 0.0956 -0.375
Varied Terrains 2 10 70.0% 30.1 40.0% 0.155 0.7783 0.052
Ward the Shores 2 38 57.89% 30.26 42.11% -0.206 0.8777 -0.98

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 196 31.64 52.55% -0.675 -0.4322 -0.649
Aid From Lesser Spirits 248 32.12 56.45% 0.869 0.7913 -0.236
All Things Weaken 116 34.17 56.9% -0.634 -0.2412 -0.744
Attenuated Essence 16 36.75 62.5% -0.116 -0.0096 -0.012
Back Against the Wall 199 32.01 58.79% -0.105 -0.0472 -0.638
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 46.58 58.33% 0.012 0.2141 -0.549
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 43.65 50.0% -0.711 -0.5009 0.393
Disintegrating Ecosystem 213 26.56 49.3% 0.292 0.7161 -0.618
Downward Spiral 430 23.67 55.12% -0.605 -0.3699 -0.31
Erosion of Will 194 29.93 51.03% 0.245 0.5539 -0.843
Intensifying Exploitation 6 42.83 50.0% -0.226 0.062 0.198
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 47 35.49 89.36% 0.823 0.3287 -0.473
Memory Fades to Dust 430 23.31 50.0% 0.476 0.8122 -1.125
Power Corrodes the Spirit 127 32.13 56.69% -0.12 0.1002 -0.319
Promising Farmlands 209 26.44 47.85% -0.966 -0.5127 -0.701
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 48.11 73.68% 0.824 0.8748 0.681
Slow Dissolution of Will 12 42.42 58.33% 0.57 0.9689 0.07
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 38.29 88.24% 0.647 -0.0634 0.216
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.188 -0.5231
Thriving Communities 146 27.86 55.48% -0.187 0.1761 -1.038
Thriving Crops 4 61.75 100.0% 0.69 0.4926 0.87
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.02
Unnatural Proliferation 150 33.9 61.33% 0.971 1.1858 -0.761
Untended Land Crumbles 137 30.55 49.64% -1.345 -1.0633 -0.316

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2278 46.59% 27.93 72.34% -0.853 -0.1125 0.349
B 2380 47.26% 28.54 74.08% 0.104 0.8299 -0.051
C 2335 45.92% 29.29 73.32% 0.322 0.9042 -0.139
D 2295 46.1% 28.69 74.42% -0.042 0.6698 -0.136
E 976 50.73% 34.99 73.77% 0.647 1.2123 0.32
F 1245 42.35% 30.47 76.71% -0.23 0.4402 0.045
G 1129 43.91% 29.62 74.76% 0.244 0.8953 -0.251
H 1146 44.79% 29.35 76.7% -0.178 0.3925 -0.121

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 318 0.0% 15.08 57.86% -0.485 0.2907
Not Using Events or Tokens 1673 22.91% 22.45 83.2% -1.022 -0.6432 -0.423
Skip Initial Invader Actions 145 19.79% 34.02 91.03% -0.786 -1.404
Start of Game Growth 213 27.33% 34.81 90.61% 0.246 -0.1028 0.097
Unlimited Undo 589 37.85% 31.59 85.06% -0.031 -0.0372 0.991
Using Tokens but Not Events 643 43.2% 25.58 73.87% 0.817 0.807 -0.232

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1226 20.4 40.05%
II 2445 31.01 67.93%
III 2293 34.76 88.92%
IV 931 38.07 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 491
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2006
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1615
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 920
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 96
Lose: Invader deck ran out 66
Lose: Adversary condition 373
Win: Sacrifice victory 18
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1118
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)