Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 3 0.0% 23.67 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 6 0.0% 32.17 0.515 83.33% -0.068 -0.0482
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 40.0% 40.6 7.125 100.0% 0.368 0.5214
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 6 83.33% 28.17 50.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 9 66.67% 38.33 -0.567 44.44% -0.947 -0.4436
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 3 66.67% 43.0 66.67%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 34 91.18% 40.38 2.854 38.24% -0.489 1.4283
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 54 40.74% 26.13 -2.804 81.48% -0.434 0.039
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 61 52.46% 31.1 -1.243 75.41% -0.349 -0.058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 64 58.06% 30.16 -3.094 56.25% -0.668 -0.1251
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 60 73.68% 35.05 3.804 60.0% -0.012 0.9342
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 38 86.84% 36.26 52.63%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 63.16% 42.26 15.825 47.37% 0.276 1.7436
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 145 81.38% 38.15 5.427 35.17% -0.608 1.1896
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 247 39.51% 21.66 0.334 75.71% 0.017 0.2393
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 233 43.91% 27.05 2.84 74.68% 0.289 0.2557
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 219 49.07% 36.62 5.173 80.82% 0.38 0.3935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 185 54.59% 38.83 -0.641 73.51% -0.188 0.0542
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 108 43.93% 43.43 3.057 77.78% -0.389 -0.1936
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 91 61.54% 44.31 -5.892 61.54% -0.169 0.2094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 172 70.93% 39.1 -0.611 44.19% -1.215 0.0253
The Kingdom of England 0 1 182 35.96% 21.4 -0.163 73.08% 0.116 0.4251
The Kingdom of England 1 3 139 36.76% 27.4 -0.013 66.19% -0.062 0.2575
The Kingdom of England 2 4 178 54.49% 27.56 -1.578 58.99% -0.524 -0.0446
The Kingdom of England 3 6 154 71.24% 34.69 8.938 56.49% 0.061 1.1007
The Kingdom of England 4 7 229 58.95% 37.83 7.401 51.97% 0.237 1.2363
The Kingdom of England 5 9 95 83.16% 35.95 -5.023 35.79% -0.834 0.6763
The Kingdom of England 6 11 297 67.34% 44.89 6.873 50.17% -0.707 1.1352
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 89 48.28% 25.76 -1.221 77.53% -0.175 0.202
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 78 63.64% 25.22 -7.683 57.69% -0.605 0.2726
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 91 62.64% 28.01 6.331 39.56% 0.377 1.5607
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 195 73.33% 54.36 9.881 66.15% 0.548 1.6882
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 77 66.23% 34.66 -3.751 32.47% -0.354 0.9558
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 27 48.15% 40.96 -10.177 40.74% -0.357 0.9158
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 422 72.04% 51.56 2.283 42.65% -1.261 0.1322
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 37 35.14% 22.22 -5.492 75.68% 0.175 0.4939
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 34 47.06% 28.62 3.316 67.65% 1.005 1.4938
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 44 45.45% 23.07 -2.476 43.18% -0.746 -0.3399
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 179 62.01% 55.5 3.479 69.27% -0.873 -0.8449
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 56 42.86% 37.05 -12.409 51.79% -0.413 0.0935
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 37 70.27% 43.0 17.299 62.16% 0.61 1.0677
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 232 75.43% 44.73 14.819 40.95% 0.605 1.685
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 144 54.23% 20.14 -0.875 70.14% 0.346 0.5889
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 134 31.34% 28.69 2.555 87.31% 0.747 0.7812
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 132 44.62% 30.45 0.016 72.73% -0.291 -0.0498
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 130 61.72% 38.02 4.523 80.0% 0.409 0.6601
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 118 70.69% 32.32 -2.876 53.39% -0.839 -0.0841
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 40 72.5% 39.17 11.845 60.0% 0.166 1.2649
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 226 78.32% 41.65 0.255 49.56% -0.637 0.2587
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 44 45.45% 25.59 5.975 81.82% 0.777 1.0171
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 28 53.57% 23.86 53.57%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 40 55.0% 36.63 12.738 75.0% 0.557 0.9252
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 53 50.94% 45.19 8.263 73.58% 0.341 1.5109
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 38 78.95% 42.34 -7.04 55.26% -0.315 0.642
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 23 82.61% 37.65 43.48%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 171 73.68% 44.16 0.094 26.9% -0.899 0.6174

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 19 31.58% 29.74 100.0% 0.427 0.4001 0.366
Blitz 0 68 36.36% 25.71 76.47% -0.183 0.0677 0.414
Dahan Insurrection 4 114 42.11% 48.18 29.82% 0.137 -0.1121 -2.144
Despicable Theft 2 5 60.0% 35.8 60.0% 0.164 0.626
Elemental Invocation 1 30 70.0% 24.47 46.67% -0.349 0.3537 0.131
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 209 18.27% 37.24 75.6% -0.97 -1.5225 -0.995
Powers Long Forgotten 1 30 70.0% 29.57 76.67% 0.262 0.8858 -0.028
Rituals of Terror 3 25 34.78% 39.36 84.0% 0.582 0.7743 0.637
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 17 88.24% 30.88 52.94% -0.614
Second Wave 0 583 37.61% 26.98 78.39% -0.693 -0.5761 -0.573
Varied Terrains 2 17 58.82% 32.82 52.94% 0.347 1.0879 0.247
Ward the Shores 2 44 54.55% 28.73 43.18% 0.109 1.1925 -1.072

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 280 30.57 48.93% 0.032 0.2811 -0.794
Aid From Lesser Spirits 299 32.24 53.85% -0.722 -0.8405 -0.257
All Things Weaken 182 32.87 56.59% 1.437 1.774 -0.541
Attenuated Essence 58 42.31 56.9% -0.001 0.026 -0.06
Back Against the Wall 247 32.5 57.89% -0.09 -0.0889 -0.213
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 42.12 62.79% 0.19 0.4067 0.339
Burn Brightest Before the End 67 38.93 41.79% -0.632 -0.6507 -0.627
Disintegrating Ecosystem 282 27.06 48.23% -0.568 -0.1745 -0.46
Downward Spiral 621 23.4 54.91% 0.499 0.6073 0.086
Erosion of Will 251 30.16 49.8% 0.385 0.7376 -0.766
Intensifying Exploitation 56 33.96 50.0% 0.566 0.8113 -0.841
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 64 34.06 81.25% -0.116 -0.6396 -0.634
Memory Fades to Dust 615 22.82 49.59% -0.053 0.1946 -0.655
Power Corrodes the Spirit 193 32.64 60.62% -0.159 0.0629 -0.225
Promising Farmlands 305 25.81 44.59% -0.603 -0.3204 -1.039
Shattered Fragments of Power 55 44.76 58.18% -0.41 -0.3326 -0.01
Slow Dissolution of Will 49 33.12 40.82% -0.591 -0.1941 -0.925
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 36.55 84.38% -0.576 -1.2715 0.191
The Border of Life and Death 4 42.25 50.0% 0.449
Thriving Communities 200 27.81 53.0% -0.807 -0.4506 -0.828
Thriving Crops 14 41.43 78.57% -0.036 -0.2318 0.962
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.026
Unnatural Proliferation 229 34.9 63.32% 0.108 0.2697 -0.646
Untended Land Crumbles 190 30.88 49.47% -0.451 -0.2199 -0.285

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3237 45.6% 26.08 65.71% -0.638 0.3672 0.229
B 3468 47.26% 27.3 67.88% 0.016 0.9358 0.173
C 3371 45.75% 27.92 67.93% 0.065 0.7997 -0.108
D 3234 45.41% 26.45 67.25% -0.424 0.5542 -0.24
E 1630 48.68% 33.1 72.09% 0.962 1.7819 0.36
F 1846 46.48% 30.73 71.89% 0.16 1.0342 0.047
G 1575 45.27% 28.36 69.52% -0.221 0.5885 -0.334
H 1716 47.13% 29.27 70.75% 0.09 0.9045 -0.11

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 511 0.0% 12.91 48.53% -0.697 0.0104
Not Using Events or Tokens 2318 27.12% 19.44 71.01% -0.209 0.1587 -0.91
Skip Initial Invader Actions 211 19.26% 32.03 84.36% 0.324 -0.2609 -0.65
Start of Game Growth 312 25.71% 31.52 83.65% 0.408 -0.1064 0.212
Unlimited Undo 849 37.74% 28.73 77.74% -0.013 -0.1229 0.7
Using Tokens but Not Events 992 39.38% 24.08 72.68% 0.722 0.6962 -0.661

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2082 13.33 24.93%
II 3385 30.1 64.37%
III 3278 34.83 88.32%
IV 1296 38.67 99.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 519
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2857
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2128
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1279
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 768
Lose: Invader deck ran out 96
Lose: Adversary condition 552
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 50
Win: Scenario condition 76
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1581
Lose: Spirit destroyed 112

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)