Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 23 34.78% 29.48 0.536 100.0% 1.044 1.328
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 55.56% 26.59 -0.373 66.67% -0.676 -0.2654
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 24 65.22% 37.04 4.967 75.0% -0.143 0.7331
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 28 76.0% 36.89 5.345 67.86% -0.123 1.1223
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 93.33% 34.13 3.987 46.67% -0.629 0.8729
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 34.67 3.743 33.33% -1.206 0.7475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 65 83.08% 39.92 6.104 38.46% -1.749 0.2943
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 136 38.97% 23.91 -1.241 84.56% 0.055 0.0971
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 113 47.32% 27.63 0.735 76.99% -0.157 -0.1755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 100 48.48% 38.03 5.519 87.0% 0.421 0.4336
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 91 59.34% 43.35 8.352 84.62% 0.4 0.6877
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 65 43.75% 48.46 10.687 87.69% 0.2 0.5674
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 24 58.33% 47.0 10.414 62.5% -0.773 0.0538
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 65 81.54% 42.74 7.989 46.15% -1.369 -0.1311
The Kingdom of England 0 1 97 35.42% 23.85 -1.598 83.51% -0.131 0.2003
The Kingdom of England 1 3 74 33.78% 32.22 2.518 81.08% -0.346 0.1678
The Kingdom of England 2 4 79 55.7% 29.82 1.672 63.29% -0.838 0.1293
The Kingdom of England 3 6 72 70.42% 33.78 3.519 52.78% -1.374 0.2047
The Kingdom of England 4 7 123 54.47% 43.72 7.311 63.41% -1.072 0.4265
The Kingdom of England 5 9 26 76.92% 37.23 5.797 38.46% -1.582 0.4914
The Kingdom of England 6 11 137 65.69% 50.04 10.739 56.93% -1.539 0.709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 56 49.09% 27.45 0.286 83.93% 0.34 0.8537
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 42 70.73% 26.86 0.501 64.29% -0.482 0.4175
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 42 54.76% 32.43 2.957 52.38% -1.4 0.7428
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 36 77.78% 46.0 9.643 66.67% -0.168 2.028
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24 66.67% 40.46 7.319 50.0% -1.184 0.9744
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 21 57.14% 40.48 6.782 38.1% -1.764 0.0534
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 116 68.1% 51.59 12.025 52.59% -1.28 0.8173
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 74 59.72% 20.57 -2.387 78.38% 0.2 0.285
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 62 37.1% 28.42 0.85 85.48% 0.182 0.2151
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 64 42.19% 29.53 1.498 76.56% -0.442 -0.2067
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 68 60.29% 38.62 6.035 79.41% -0.046 0.2405
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 68 72.06% 34.13 3.988 57.35% -0.752 0.0312
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 21 76.19% 43.95 8.874 71.43% -0.079 1.0877
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 77 77.92% 42.29 7.902 61.04% -0.37 0.7542
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 20 40.0% 22.55 -2.61 80.0% -0.147 -0.2483
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 70.0% 23.6 -1.221 40.0% -1.045 -0.2665
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 66.67% 33.25 2.562 66.67% -0.621 -0.202
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 57.14% 45.86 8.336 85.71% -0.234 1.0193
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 69.23% 46.31 8.556 69.23% -0.671 0.4463
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 42.43 7.961 42.86% -0.939 1.06
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 38 92.11% 53.58 12.832 57.89% -1.072 0.8068

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 47 31.91% 27.79 -1.137 72.34% -0.872 -0.303
Dahan Insurrection 4 72 51.39% 42.64 6.689 56.94% -0.553 -0.1546
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 27.33 -0.75 83.33% -0.428 0.0364
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 154 16.23% 42.34 4.779 85.71% -0.339 0.0279
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 66.67% 25.29 -1.057 66.67% -0.215 0.2303
Rituals of Terror 3 24 40.91% 40.13 5.65 70.83% -0.439 0.2058
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -0.978 23.08% -0.948 -0.3032
Second Wave 0 287 48.42% 27.85 -0.202 76.31% -0.241 0.188
Ward the Shores 2 34 61.76% 30.71 -0.58 35.29% -1.637 -0.6029

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 127 30.03 -1.128 55.12% -2.078 -0.0047
Aid From Lesser Spirits 169 29.5 -1.211 52.66% -2.313 -0.3953
All Things Weaken 54 36.43 0.659 61.11% -1.679 0.4917
Back Against the Wall 142 30.18 -0.587 61.27% -1.746 0.345
Disintegrating Ecosystem 146 24.57 -3.575 50.0% -2.347 -0.1226
Downward Spiral 293 23.42 -3.127 55.63% -2.422 -0.3991
Erosion of Will 118 28.69 -1.965 53.39% -2.17 0.0391
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19 31.58 0.015 94.74% 0.005 0.6913
Memory Fades to Dust 310 21.47 -3.985 49.35% -2.8 -0.5817
Power Corrodes the Spirit 56 29.3 -1.494 60.71% -2.033 -0.0087
Promising Farmlands 148 24.97 -3.167 50.0% -2.244 -0.0296
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 36.14 1.949 96.43% 0.345 0.7552
Thriving Communities 78 27.86 -2.189 62.82% -2.118 -0.0235
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -4.109 37.21% -2.633 -0.4065
Unnatural Proliferation 80 32.42 -0.001 67.5% -1.762 0.3247
Untended Land Crumbles 67 33.16 -0.474 55.22% -2.045 0.0605

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1637 43.28% 27.7 -0.372 75.87% -0.087 -0.847
B 1677 44.46% 27.71 -0.314 76.74% 0.008 -0.8494
C 1625 42.74% 28.23 -0.125 76.62% -0.09 -1.1789
D 1616 43.46% 28.1 -0.01 78.59% 0.105 -0.7448
E 459 47.22% 33.13 0.993 77.78% 0.008 -0.957
F 811 33.38% 29.53 0.413 83.48% 0.112 -0.8019
G 750 38.85% 29.08 0.097 78.27% -0.156 -1.0614
H 755 41.5% 29.03 0.201 80.13% 0.124 -0.7899

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 219 0.0% 15.83 -5.334 62.56% -2.876 -0.8198
Not Using Events or Tokens 1386 18.52% 23.32 -1.489 87.45% 0.658 0.8738
Skip Initial Invader Actions 103 19.18% 36.4 2.975 92.23% 0.52 -0.1673
Start of Game Growth 162 25.56% 35.09 2.279 91.36% 0.686 0.2153
Unlimited Undo 408 40.29% 32.2 1.546 84.8% 0.534 0.1136
Using Tokens but Not Events 402 47.12% 26.05 -1.278 72.89% -0.002 -0.0539

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 846 22.35 56.03%
II 1707 30.84 71.12%
III 1502 34.35 89.28%
IV 610 37.52 99.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1092
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 931
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 485
Lose: Invader deck ran out 44
Lose: Adversary condition 192
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 24
Win: Scenario condition 52
Lose: Blight pool ran out 730
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)