Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 10.0% 28.8 100.0% 0.508 0.3402 0.175
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.129 0.2789 0.444
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.247 0.0346 -1.882
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0% 0.281 0.9976
Elemental Invocation 1 11 27.27% 29.55 81.82% 0.206 0.957 0.349
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 152 19.08% 42.08 81.58% -0.526 -1.1349 -0.704
Powers Long Forgotten 1 24 75.0% 28.25 75.0% 0.639 1.1385 -0.366
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% -0.501 -0.3928 0.101
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.456
Second Wave 0 408 44.42% 27.61 78.43% 0.54 0.6195 -0.552
Varied Terrains 2 10 70.0% 30.1 40.0% 0.309 0.8908 0.092
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.272 1.4735 -1.083

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 193 31.97 53.37% -0.165 0.1013 -0.726
Aid From Lesser Spirits 241 31.77 55.6% 0.46 0.4671 -0.334
All Things Weaken 110 33.63 56.36% -0.886 -0.4505 -0.828
Attenuated Essence 10 37.1 70.0% 0.32 0.5102 0.67
Back Against the Wall 197 31.71 58.38% 0.061 0.2022 -0.694
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.44 55.56% -0.343 0.0408 -0.708
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 44.07 50.0% -0.206 0.0878 0.236
Disintegrating Ecosystem 209 26.47 48.8% -0.233 0.2692 -0.701
Downward Spiral 424 23.61 55.19% -0.304 0.0256 -0.45
Erosion of Will 192 29.76 50.52% 0.546 0.9312 -0.93
Intensifying Exploitation 4 53.0 75.0% 0.205 0.5721 0.182
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 43 33.98 88.37% 0.444 -0.0751 -0.525
Memory Fades to Dust 422 23.24 49.53% -0.39 0.076 -1.194
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 31.94 57.02% -0.393 -0.1027 -0.367
Promising Farmlands 207 26.61 48.31% -0.578 -0.009 -0.693
Shattered Fragments of Power 18 46.67 72.22% 0.576 0.7292 0.574
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 48.71 57.14% 0.488 0.9908 0.122
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 37.78 87.76% -0.256 -0.9091 0.201
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.199 -0.3775
Thriving Communities 141 27.63 54.61% -0.804 -0.3435 -1.146
Thriving Crops 4 61.75 100.0% 1.054 1.1007 0.887
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.042
Unnatural Proliferation 147 33.73 60.54% 0.236 0.5275 -0.843
Untended Land Crumbles 133 30.95 51.13% -0.734 -0.4129 -0.38

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2218 46.31% 28.06 73.04% -0.4 0.4372 0.433
B 2325 46.89% 28.46 74.49% 0.148 0.9277 -0.031
C 2279 45.99% 29.25 73.63% 0.166 0.8181 -0.143
D 2239 45.66% 28.65 74.9% 0.193 0.9908 -0.196
E 943 50.92% 34.83 73.28% 0.26 0.8851 0.311
F 1204 42.14% 30.57 77.08% -0.387 0.332 0.017
G 1111 43.62% 29.57 74.89% -0.046 0.6979 -0.286
H 1125 44.56% 29.32 76.98% 0.081 0.7262 -0.089

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 306 0.0% 15.56 59.8% -0.683 0.1973
Not Using Events or Tokens 1653 22.68% 22.63 84.03% -0.387 -0.0613 -0.851
Skip Initial Invader Actions 143 18.95% 34.46 92.31% -0.711 -1.2515
Start of Game Growth 211 26.47% 35.11 91.47% 0.283 -0.0363 0.057
Unlimited Undo 585 37.88% 31.65 85.3% 0.537 0.5228 1.044
Using Tokens but Not Events 626 42.73% 25.68 74.12% 0.578 0.5212 -0.181

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1184 20.97 41.47%
II 2402 31.03 68.07%
III 2241 34.74 89.02%
IV 898 38.02 99.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 491
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1964
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1589
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 887
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 67
Lose: Invader deck ran out 63
Lose: Adversary condition 364
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1092
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)