Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 9 0.0% 25.11 100.0% 0.102 0.0407
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.117 0.2563 0.444
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.255 0.0821 -1.879
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 26.7 80.0% 0.351
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 152 19.08% 42.08 81.58% -0.419 -1.0521 -0.699
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 72.73% 28.45 72.73% 0.332 0.8025 -0.367
Rituals of Terror 3 20 27.78% 40.1 85.0% -0.445 -0.4328 0.104
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.45
Second Wave 0 405 44.25% 27.68 78.52% 0.679 0.7555 -0.554
Varied Terrains 2 9 77.78% 26.44 33.33% 0.065 0.6338 -0.203
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.218 1.4533 -1.075

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 193 31.97 53.37% -0.093 0.1798 -0.717
Aid From Lesser Spirits 240 31.65 55.42% 0.536 0.6 -0.316
All Things Weaken 109 33.69 56.88% -0.823 -0.3541 -0.79
Attenuated Essence 10 37.1 70.0% 0.376 0.6351 0.668
Back Against the Wall 197 31.71 58.38% 0.11 0.292 -0.668
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 7 44.86 57.14% -0.24 0.2237 -0.542
Burn Brightest Before the End 14 44.07 50.0% -0.272 0.0512 0.231
Disintegrating Ecosystem 207 26.48 48.31% -0.324 0.2201 -0.69
Downward Spiral 423 23.66 55.32% -0.266 0.0912 -0.434
Erosion of Will 192 29.76 50.52% 0.493 0.9468 -0.925
Intensifying Exploitation 4 53.0 75.0% 0.264 0.6728 0.152
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 43 33.98 88.37% -0.042 -0.554 -0.531
Memory Fades to Dust 422 23.24 49.53% -0.434 0.0658 -1.185
Power Corrodes the Spirit 119 32.24 57.14% -0.444 -0.1338 -0.357
Promising Farmlands 206 26.6 48.06% -0.741 -0.1554 -0.683
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 45.76 70.59% 0.479 0.6815 0.485
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 44.0 40.0% 0.29 0.8511 0.015
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 37.78 87.76% -0.233 -0.9554 0.202
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.23 -0.338
Thriving Communities 141 27.63 54.61% -0.805 -0.2979 -1.128
Thriving Crops 4 61.75 100.0% 1.087 1.2045 0.878
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.039
Unnatural Proliferation 145 33.45 60.0% 0.053 0.3708 -0.83
Untended Land Crumbles 132 31.03 51.52% -0.679 -0.2993 -0.368

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2215 46.28% 28.05 73.05% -0.446 0.4247 0.427
B 2315 46.77% 28.41 74.51% 0.174 0.9769 -0.023
C 2272 45.89% 29.27 73.77% 0.398 1.0782 -0.129
D 2231 45.59% 28.66 74.9% 0.217 1.047 -0.19
E 934 50.88% 34.67 73.02% 0.205 0.8606 0.294
F 1198 42.1% 30.51 76.96% -0.486 0.2584 0.014
G 1105 43.4% 29.54 74.84% -0.026 0.7543 -0.283
H 1120 44.76% 29.33 76.88% -0.022 0.6656 -0.094

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 305 0.0% 15.61 60.0% -0.573 0.3331
Not Using Events or Tokens 1651 22.63% 22.66 84.13% -0.126 0.1905 -0.842
Skip Initial Invader Actions 143 18.95% 34.46 92.31% -0.695 -1.2561
Start of Game Growth 211 26.47% 35.11 91.47% 0.285 -0.0267 0.058
Unlimited Undo 581 37.98% 31.66 85.2% 0.521 0.4949 1.05
Using Tokens but Not Events 624 42.71% 25.65 74.04% 0.619 0.5532 -0.178

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1181 21.09 41.57%
II 2392 31.04 68.06%
III 2227 34.73 88.95%
IV 898 38.01 99.44%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 491
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1950
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1582
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 887
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 65
Lose: Invader deck ran out 63
Lose: Adversary condition 364
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1088
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)