Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 24.88 100.0%
Blitz 0 47 38.3% 29.38 80.85% 0.136 0.4266 0.457
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 25.37% 52.84 41.79% 0.164 -0.0148 -1.791
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 26.0 33.33%
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 26.7 80.0% 0.095 0.9215 0.323
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 150 18.67% 42.03 81.33% -0.538 -1.0378 -0.889
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 72.73% 28.45 72.73% -0.243 0.167 -0.349
Rituals of Terror 3 19 29.41% 42.21 89.47% 0.125
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.415
Second Wave 0 396 44.25% 27.74 78.54% 0.732 0.8479 -0.52
Varied Terrains 2 7 85.71% 25.86 28.57% 0.136 0.6287
Ward the Shores 2 36 55.56% 31.39 44.44% 0.594 1.5071 -1.058

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 182 31.99 53.85% -0.44 0.2252 -0.726
Aid From Lesser Spirits 237 31.45 55.27% 0.488 0.9521 -0.396
All Things Weaken 104 34.11 57.69% -0.354 0.4582 -0.808
Attenuated Essence 5 32.6 60.0% 0.066 0.7112 0.375
Back Against the Wall 192 31.58 58.85% -0.356 0.1912 -0.797
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 75.0% 0.018 0.9376 -0.068
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 51.57 71.43% 0.186 0.9781 0.355
Disintegrating Ecosystem 198 26.16 47.98% -0.707 0.1501 -0.715
Downward Spiral 413 23.77 55.69% -0.57 0.1087 -0.465
Erosion of Will 188 29.53 50.53% -0.398 0.4084 -1.04
Intensifying Exploitation 2 44.0 50.0% -0.095 0.8494 -0.08
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 43 33.98 88.37% 0.106 -0.1474 -0.549
Memory Fades to Dust 405 22.65 49.38% -0.604 0.2234 -1.24
Power Corrodes the Spirit 114 32.46 57.02% -0.818 -0.1793 -0.459
Promising Farmlands 200 26.34 48.5% -1.576 -0.6812 -0.644
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 44.11 77.78% 0.078 0.7257 0.107
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 49.25 50.0% 0.153 1.1346 -0.045
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 49 37.78 87.76% -0.312 -0.8041 0.131
The Border of Life and Death 1 25.0 0.0% -0.31 -0.1044
Thriving Communities 137 27.93 55.47% -0.575 0.3067 -1.121
Thriving Crops 3 64.67 100.0% 0.886 1.4383 0.753
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% -0.043
Unnatural Proliferation 141 33.2 59.57% -0.058 0.6087 -0.855
Untended Land Crumbles 124 31.54 53.23% -0.135 0.5972 -0.51

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2154 45.93% 28.16 73.91% -0.5 0.4051 0.404
B 2231 46.43% 28.38 75.35% 0.247 1.045 0.039
C 2205 45.44% 29.28 74.38% 0.232 0.8821 -0.154
D 2159 45.57% 28.65 75.27% -0.056 0.7947 -0.215
E 891 50.57% 34.75 73.85% 0.391 1.0886 0.295
F 1161 41.7% 30.59 77.95% -0.273 0.4976 0.047
G 1081 42.78% 29.48 75.39% 0.049 0.8218 -0.262
H 1063 44.91% 29.36 77.8% -0.076 0.6446 -0.139

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 301 0.0% 15.61 59.8% -1.434 -0.2324
Not Using Events or Tokens 1637 22.29% 22.74 84.42% 0.033 0.2772 -0.845
Skip Initial Invader Actions 141 19.35% 34.6 92.91% -0.486 -1.0632
Start of Game Growth 207 26.35% 35.22 91.79% -0.195 -0.654 0.028
Unlimited Undo 573 38.11% 31.91 85.69% 0.866 0.6883 1.02
Using Tokens but Not Events 595 42.96% 25.56 73.95% 0.48 0.441 -0.249

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1126 21.84 43.52%
II 2326 31.08 68.7%
III 2157 34.71 89.2%
IV 866 37.98 99.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 490
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1893
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1552
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 855
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 31
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 333
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1054
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)