Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 19 36.84% 30.26 0.818 100.0% 0.906 1.1865
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 25 56.0% 26.12 -0.379 64.0% -0.772 -0.3818
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 19 61.11% 39.21 6.245 84.21% 0.296 1.1663
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 27 75.0% 36.67 5.354 66.67% -0.238 1.019
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 9 88.89% 38.33 6.151 55.56% -0.437 1.0917
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 43.0 8.89 50.0% -0.502 1.5239
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 61 81.97% 39.64 6.093 37.7% -1.794 0.2764
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 117 39.32% 23.55 -1.305 83.76% -0.01 0.0283
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 103 46.08% 28.15 1.042 78.64% -0.036 -0.0664
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 92 50.55% 37.91 5.586 86.96% 0.426 0.4307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 74 60.81% 43.08 8.287 83.78% 0.317 0.6084
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 59 43.1% 48.17 10.612 86.44% 0.063 0.4244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 23 56.52% 46.43 10.171 60.87% -0.874 -0.046
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 62 82.26% 42.47 8.013 45.16% -1.347 -0.1022
The Kingdom of England 0 1 85 36.9% 23.89 -1.361 83.53% -0.017 0.3147
The Kingdom of England 1 3 64 34.38% 31.92 2.551 79.69% -0.35 0.1502
The Kingdom of England 2 4 69 53.62% 29.45 1.594 62.32% -0.92 0.0496
The Kingdom of England 3 6 64 71.43% 33.95 3.705 53.13% -1.34 0.2385
The Kingdom of England 4 7 116 54.31% 45.03 8.02 67.24% -0.814 0.6875
The Kingdom of England 5 9 24 75.0% 38.46 6.559 41.67% -1.424 0.6462
The Kingdom of England 6 11 122 63.93% 50.1 10.814 57.38% -1.524 0.7274
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 53 48.08% 27.89 0.48 84.91% 0.323 0.8479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 39 68.42% 27.03 0.683 64.1% -0.527 0.3662
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 37 54.05% 31.05 2.374 48.65% -1.55 0.5793
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 30 73.33% 46.47 9.818 66.67% -0.225 1.9619
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 65.0% 38.05 6.146 45.0% -1.369 0.7738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 20 55.0% 41.35 7.295 40.0% -1.692 0.1306
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 84 66.67% 48.93 10.718 46.43% -1.648 0.4677
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 65 61.9% 20.0 -2.513 75.38% 0.094 0.1826
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 50 38.0% 27.5 0.622 82.0% -0.029 -0.009
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 57 38.6% 29.72 1.645 77.19% -0.49 -0.2668
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 58 56.9% 38.64 6.327 79.31% -0.023 0.2623
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 58 70.69% 33.9 3.924 55.17% -0.805 -0.0373
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 75.0% 47.75 10.854 81.25% 0.342 1.5021
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73 79.45% 41.82 7.821 60.27% -0.382 0.7506
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 15 46.67% 23.13 -1.982 80.0% -0.018 -0.1383
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 7 71.43% 23.29 -1.351 42.86% -0.866 -0.1476
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 30.63 1.558 62.5% -0.688 -0.246
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 45.6 8.367 80.0% -0.273 0.9777
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 50.0% 54.0 12.336 87.5% -0.073 1.0508
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 80.0% 40.4 6.794 40.0% -0.799 1.247
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 29 96.55% 49.14 10.919 48.28% -1.318 0.6157

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 45 33.33% 27.8 -1.029 71.11% -0.876 -0.2944
Dahan Insurrection 4 69 52.17% 42.38 6.552 55.07% -0.58 -0.1763
Elemental Invocation 1 3 0.0% 36.0 2.634 100.0% 0.091 0.4638
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 149 16.11% 42.67 4.927 85.91% -0.343 0.022
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 23.9 -1.505 65.0% -0.27 0.1709
Rituals of Terror 3 23 38.1% 40.17 5.535 69.57% -0.531 0.1031
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 100.0% 29.0 -1.055 23.08% -1.036 -0.395
Second Wave 0 232 48.7% 27.25 -0.384 76.29% -0.248 0.1756
Ward the Shores 2 32 62.5% 30.88 -0.246 34.38% -1.534 -0.4923

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 108 28.05 -1.794 54.63% -2.064 0.0062
Aid From Lesser Spirits 144 28.99 -1.326 52.78% -2.238 -0.3159
All Things Weaken 48 36.94 0.871 60.42% -1.631 0.522
Back Against the Wall 133 30.17 -0.436 62.41% -1.638 0.4584
Disintegrating Ecosystem 136 24.2 -3.613 50.0% -2.273 -0.0474
Downward Spiral 262 22.95 -3.221 55.34% -2.386 -0.3671
Erosion of Will 100 28.26 -1.793 54.0% -2.026 0.184
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 30.15 -0.317 92.31% -0.179 0.5141
Memory Fades to Dust 280 21.07 -4.077 48.57% -2.754 -0.5391
Power Corrodes the Spirit 45 29.22 -1.444 62.22% -1.841 0.176
Promising Farmlands 133 24.67 -3.106 48.87% -2.182 0.0319
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 36.29 2.264 95.24% 0.309 0.7392
Thriving Communities 63 27.7 -2.134 61.9% -2.096 -0.0001
Tipping Point 43 24.12 -3.952 37.21% -2.54 -0.3182
Unnatural Proliferation 66 31.95 -0.071 66.67% -1.734 0.3527
Untended Land Crumbles 51 33.67 0.036 58.82% -1.787 0.3092

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1499 42.54% 27.44 -0.386 75.98% -0.102 -1.2036
B 1542 43.69% 27.19 -0.482 76.52% -0.048 -1.244
C 1489 41.67% 28.12 -0.059 77.23% -0.074 -1.5023
D 1470 42.24% 27.77 -0.054 78.64% 0.041 -1.15
E 361 46.15% 33.41 1.287 79.78% 0.13 -1.169
F 715 31.98% 29.39 0.502 84.34% 0.135 -1.1197
G 671 36.81% 28.95 0.193 78.69% -0.165 -1.4077
H 681 38.88% 28.76 0.211 81.35% 0.109 -1.1478

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 202 0.0% 16.4 -5.054 65.35% -2.704 -0.655
Not Using Events or Tokens 1326 17.23% 23.5 -1.373 88.39% 0.673 0.8936
Skip Initial Invader Actions 95 19.4% 36.0 2.903 91.58% 0.426 -0.2792
Start of Game Growth 151 26.02% 34.64 2.243 90.73% 0.663 0.211
Unlimited Undo 353 39.93% 31.83 1.438 84.14% 0.45 0.0327
Using Tokens but Not Events 366 47.42% 26.27 -1.032 71.86% 0.048 -0.0028

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 804 22.33 58.83%
II 1565 30.75 71.69%
III 1321 34.25 89.63%
IV 524 37.47 99.24%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 394
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 938
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 840
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 399
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39
Lose: Adversary condition 170
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 23
Win: Scenario condition 48
Lose: Blight pool ran out 647
Lose: Spirit destroyed 36

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)