Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 26 38.46% 29.5 -0.883 100.0% 0.378 0.929
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 33 54.55% 27.36 3.364 69.7% 0.089 0.9663
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 31 63.33% 36.68 -6.556 70.97% -0.708 0.4117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 35 81.25% 37.49 0.747 68.57% -0.11 1.4212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 95.0% 39.8 9.737 60.0% 0.24 1.8272
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 12 66.67% 45.42 11.717 58.33% -0.018 1.5446
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 70 82.86% 40.46 11.267 40.0% 0.071 2.3313
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 157 36.31% 24.39 -1.463 86.62% 0.378 0.6227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 140 46.04% 28.06 -0.97 79.29% -0.018 -0.1439
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 132 48.09% 38.78 6.16 87.12% 0.616 0.7317
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 113 56.64% 43.67 11.499 83.19% 0.698 1.0718
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 68 43.28% 48.59 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 33 57.58% 48.85 18.73 60.61% 0.04 1.0254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 76 77.63% 44.97 17.657 51.32% 0.48 2.0551
The Kingdom of England 0 1 114 36.28% 24.2 -2.742 84.21% -0.065 0.4506
The Kingdom of England 1 3 88 35.23% 32.66 0.619 82.95% -0.369 0.2402
The Kingdom of England 2 4 103 55.34% 30.71 -1.59 64.08% -1.117 0.0104
The Kingdom of England 3 6 97 72.92% 34.0 7.929 52.58% -0.054 1.6896
The Kingdom of England 4 7 136 57.35% 42.82 1.976 61.76% -0.719 0.8596
The Kingdom of England 5 9 29 79.31% 37.07 37.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 157 64.97% 51.08 15.727 58.6% 0.451 2.7496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 60 51.72% 27.17 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 50 71.43% 27.32 3.556 66.0% 0.389 1.2789
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 53 52.83% 32.64 52.83%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 46 78.26% 45.22 11.502 63.04% 0.034 2.4177
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 41 70.73% 36.41 6.696 39.02% -0.34 2.1357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 24 54.17% 42.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 178 61.8% 53.62 17.977 44.94% 0.151 2.5184
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 0.0% 31.6 0.184 100.0% 0.603 0.4793
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 80.0% 28.6 1.771 80.0% 0.298 1.1423
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7 85.71% 16.0 -4.859 0.0% -1.315 -0.486
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 47.5 8.743 100.0% 0.421 1.2909
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 46.33 7.676 66.67% 0.044 1.2793
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 100.0% 27.4 -0.44 20.0% -0.586 0.8456
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 34 91.18% 42.15 6.67 41.18% -1.314 0.3849
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 84 59.76% 21.36 -0.592 79.76% 0.211 0.3775
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 72 36.11% 28.67 -3.525 87.5% 0.158 -0.0654
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 89 41.57% 32.51 1.681 80.9% -0.26 0.1927
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 83 60.24% 39.18 6.825 80.72% 0.48 0.7897
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 80 70.89% 33.86 5.385 56.25% 0.013 0.9651
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 27 77.78% 41.81 9.388 62.96% -0.178 0.8028
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 94 77.66% 44.52 11.18 62.77% 0.172 1.3639
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 41.67% 22.5 -6.733 79.17% -0.327 -0.3837
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 26.25 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 68.42% 30.79 -7.189 63.16% -0.832 -0.1214
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 16 75.0% 42.69 -4.496 75.0% -0.676 0.6622
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 75.0% 43.31 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 10 70.0% 44.8 13.769 50.0% 0.077 2.0144
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 80 63.75% 54.13 15.715 33.75% -0.242 1.7774

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 23.4 100.0% 0.344 0.1419
Blitz 0 43 34.88% 28.84 83.72% 0.27 0.5274 0.302
Dahan Insurrection 4 63 23.81% 53.22 41.27% 0.022 0.4351 -1.719
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 15.0 0.0% -0.421 0.0245
Elemental Invocation 1 9 22.22% 25.89 77.78% 0.171
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 130 19.23% 44.25 85.38% -0.063 0.2424 -1.175
Powers Long Forgotten 1 20 70.0% 27.35 75.0% 0.115 0.2969 -0.633
Rituals of Terror 3 18 25.0% 43.28 88.89% 0.112 0.2331 -0.033
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 14 85.71% 32.79 50.0% -0.29
Second Wave 0 337 46.41% 27.45 77.45% -0.324 0.2419 -0.81
Varied Terrains 2 6 83.33% 19.67 16.67% -0.297 0.2291
Ward the Shores 2 28 46.43% 31.39 46.43% -0.774

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 154 31.19 57.79% -0.113 1.7896 -0.448
Aid From Lesser Spirits 199 29.89 53.77% -0.169 1.5609 -0.336
All Things Weaken 79 33.78 60.76% -1.009 0.9763 -0.795
Back Against the Wall 160 30.89 60.0% -0.397 1.4199 -0.698
Disintegrating Ecosystem 177 25.38 47.46% -1.305 0.7454 -0.698
Downward Spiral 357 23.84 56.02% -0.583 1.4099 -0.515
Erosion of Will 161 28.48 51.55% -0.645 1.4379 -1.022
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 33.51 94.29% 0.433 0.8742
Memory Fades to Dust 353 21.56 50.71% -1.098 0.9861 -0.948
Power Corrodes the Spirit 88 30.43 59.09% -0.856 1.0822 -0.249
Promising Farmlands 177 25.81 51.41% 0.404 2.4497 -0.317
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 37 35.86 97.3% 0.77
Thriving Communities 113 28.46 60.18% -0.58 1.4032 -0.939
Tipping Point 43 24.12 37.21% 0.009
Unnatural Proliferation 112 31.8 62.5% -1.252 0.7127 -0.885
Untended Land Crumbles 97 31.54 54.64% -1.483 0.5104 -0.456

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1917 44.18% 27.79 75.48% -0.345 0.4522 0.466
B 1984 44.68% 27.87 76.71% 0.503 1.2468 -0.006
C 1948 43.7% 28.69 75.56% 0.024 0.5921 -0.398
D 1941 44.08% 28.53 76.66% 0.14 0.9355 -0.087
E 685 48.73% 34.02 75.91% 0.798 1.4447 0.397
F 989 37.96% 29.73 81.19% -0.242 0.4826 0.191
G 940 40.42% 28.88 76.91% -0.379 0.3524 -0.387
H 922 43.43% 29.06 79.72% -0.486 0.226 -0.162

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 281 0.0% 15.54 60.14% -1.224 0.9056
Not Using Events or Tokens 1552 20.15% 22.98 85.7% -0.396 -0.2215 -0.79
Skip Initial Invader Actions 132 18.6% 35.37 93.94% 0.477 0.3348
Start of Game Growth 189 25.83% 34.82 92.59% 0.93 0.1691 0.074
Unlimited Undo 519 37.61% 31.57 86.13% 1.066 0.4618 1.122
Using Tokens but Not Events 492 44.92% 25.59 73.17% 0.767 0.6105 0.059

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 982 22.56 49.39%
II 2040 30.98 70.15%
III 1880 34.53 89.41%
IV 765 37.77 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 485
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1653
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1387
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 756
Lose: Invader deck ran out 52
Lose: Adversary condition 254
Win: Sacrifice victory 15
Lose: Scenario condition 30
Win: Scenario condition 62
Lose: Blight pool ran out 899
Lose: Spirit destroyed 74

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)