Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 2.18 75.0% 0.093 0.3745
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 50.0% 23.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 -1.393 83.33% -0.141 -0.4205
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 46.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 63.64% 42.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 50.0% 44.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 0.0% 27.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 87.5%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 26.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 72.73% 37.73 54.55%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 38.17 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 33.33% 50.94 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 11 63.64% 35.36 63.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 50.0% 36.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 82.35%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 4.943 60.0% 0.11 2.1349
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 53.1 7.597 60.0% 0.107 2.3064
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 42.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 -1.742 50.0% -0.327 0.5496
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 -0.648 0.0% -0.332 1.1653
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 31.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 100.0% 42.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 100.0% 26.5 -0.648 16.67% -0.332 0.7524
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 11 27.27% 52.91 81.82% 0.008
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 31 19.35% 41.29 61.29% 0.11 0.3462 -0.427
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.137
Second Wave 0 22 40.91% 26.68 81.82%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 31.29 52.94% -0.327 1.6407 -0.259
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 32.45 72.73% 0.532
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.11 2.1047 0.231
Back Against the Wall 17 34.18 76.47% 0.199 2.1525 -0.039
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 27.5 50.0% -0.281
Downward Spiral 22 29.59 50.0% -0.229
Erosion of Will 18 40.11 61.11% -0.232
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 35.25 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 16 25.81 62.5% -0.274 1.8631 -0.287
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 26.44 55.56% 0.096 2.0635 -0.123
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 57.14% 0.181
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 40.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 33.33% -0.177
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 4 39.75 50.0% 0.009
Untended Land Crumbles 6 45.5 83.33% -0.332 1.711 -0.099

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 276 40.82% 32.11 78.62% -0.236 0.4644 -0.33
B 295 42.36% 32.49 76.95% 0.037 0.6919 0.408
C 283 41.67% 32.46 74.91% 0.216 0.657 -0.31
D 274 40.0% 32.88 79.56% -0.362 0.3201 -0.06
E 92 47.83% 36.22 78.26% -0.163 0.3386 0.318
F 112 45.87% 34.63 75.89% 0.284 0.9428 -0.038
G 108 42.99% 33.82 78.7% 0.321 0.9635 -0.178
H 92 45.65% 35.64 78.26% -0.085 0.5577 0.17

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 19.44 88.89% 0.105 2.3445
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 29.63% 22.97 79.41% 0.105 0.3045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 13 9.09% 41.38 100.0% 0.132 -0.6826 0.137
Start of Game Growth 25 4.55% 40.52 88.0% 0.093 -0.4073 0.137
Unlimited Undo 28 30.77% 36.89 92.86% 0.132 -0.4825 0.434
Using Tokens but Not Events 36 23.53% 26.81 91.67% -0.274 -0.1441 0.452

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33 22.64 12.12%
II 124 31.06 66.13%
III 164 34.65 90.85%
IV 61 37.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 146
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 74
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 61
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 32
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 36
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-13 03:07:46 (Pacific Time)