Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 81.82% 45.18 5.028 81.82% 0.422 1.5413
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 20.0 -0.088 0.0% -0.243 1.0518
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 100.0% 28.8 1.089 20.0% -0.373 1.5758
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 55.56% 17.89 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 25 32.0% 42.88 2.156 96.0% 0.261 0.2883
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13 53.85% 44.46 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 57.14% 38.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 66.67% 24.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 50.0% 26.75 0.421 25.0% -0.184 1.052
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 70.59% 38.12 58.82%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 42.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 19 31.58% 48.26 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 23.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 21 71.43% 39.19 4.696 66.67% -0.083 0.9476
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 13 61.54% 35.0 -0.679 38.46% -0.179 1.2262
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 54.39 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 19 63.16% 46.74 31.58%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 36.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 2.809 75.0% 0.08 0.3579
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 16 56.25% 37.69 -3.822 12.5% -0.473 0.548
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 33.33% 30.89 77.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 100.0% 42.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 72.73% 21.0 -8.594 18.18% -0.202 0.7882
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 19.0 -1.338 0.0% -0.213 0.7955
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 75.0% 32.0 25.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 23.08% 52.31 84.62% 0.065
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 32 18.75% 40.0 59.38% -0.107
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0% -0.184 0.7508
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.186
Second Wave 0 31 48.39% 26.9 80.65% 0.505 0.5905
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 32.42 57.89% -0.176
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% -0.332 -0.4503 0.22
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.385
Attenuated Essence 1 40.0 0.0% -0.045
Back Against the Wall 27 38.04 81.48% 0.02
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.33 33.33% -0.482 -0.4116 -0.328
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 31.0 46.67% -0.243 0.1325 -0.416
Downward Spiral 28 26.93 50.0% 0.433 0.5985 -0.117
Erosion of Will 24 34.75 66.67% -0.184 0.0306 -0.118
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 30.0 66.67% 0.185 -0.3967
Memory Fades to Dust 25 32.12 68.0% 0.208 0.5011 -0.274
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 26.08 61.54% -0.035
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.278
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 30.25 50.0% -0.017
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 7 30.29 57.14% -0.15 0.1494 -0.356
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 8 33.5 37.5% 0.045 0.214 0.459
Untended Land Crumbles 11 31.73 45.45% -0.402 -0.1435 0.09

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 378 40.71% 29.91 72.49% 0.107 1.2498 -0.626
B 399 40.62% 30.02 72.93% 0.135 1.1903 0.427
C 384 41.18% 30.53 69.79% -0.073 0.8155 -0.485
D 374 39.78% 30.55 74.6% 0.721 1.7746 0.287
E 149 55.03% 34.9 77.18% -0.046 0.8584 0.574
F 172 49.11% 33.95 74.42% 0.3 1.3043 0.377
G 167 51.81% 32.78 72.46% -0.633 0.3349 -0.498
H 146 51.37% 32.38 69.18% -0.528 0.4643 -0.074

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 15.5 66.67% -0.231 0.4327
Not Using Events or Tokens 45 28.57% 20.13 66.67% -0.231 0.2633
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.69% 40.93 100.0% 0.186
Start of Game Growth 36 15.63% 36.64 77.78% -0.176 -0.5879 0.186
Unlimited Undo 44 23.81% 31.39 88.64% -0.193 -0.2876 0.329
Using Tokens but Not Events 64 22.58% 26.38 89.06% 0.437 0.513 0.287

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 72 16.77 5.56%
II 167 30.59 62.87%
III 216 34.74 91.67%
IV 89 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 194
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 96
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 89
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 25
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 48
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 55
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)