Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 40.0 5.027 100.0% 0.25 1.1111
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 26.0 -8.682 0.0% -0.537 0.7128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 53.5 10.756 100.0% 0.255 1.7895
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -5.284 0.0% -0.759 1.3188
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 50.0% 15.5 -6.637 50.0% -0.523 -0.4799
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.0 1.643 100.0% 0.672 0.646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10 10.0% 47.8 7.903 100.0% 0.72 0.7205
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 43.0 5.365 71.43% -0.125 0.168
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 4 50.0% 51.75 9.292 100.0% 0.63 1.0001
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.471 0.0% -0.62 0.2181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 15.991 100.0% 0.259 1.5078
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.416 100.0% 0.272 0.6026
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 1.489 87.5% 0.255 0.7444
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -5.229 33.33% -0.864 0.1003
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.588 0.0% -1.327 0.2535
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 66.67% 42.11 4.516 66.67% -0.586 0.9283
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 43.5 4.872 50.0% -0.333 1.7376
The Kingdom of England 6 11 8 37.5% 47.5 5.236 37.5% -0.734 1.5232
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 1.234 100.0% 0.485 1.0107
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 31.0 0.123 100.0% 0.289 1.1769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 2.926 70.0% -0.204 1.9237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.864 37.5% -1.288 0.8962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 37.5% 53.38 10.727 81.25% -0.148 2.003
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 37.33 5.189 33.33% -0.284 1.5423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 48.0 7.349 50.0% -1.105 1.0233
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.561 100.0% 0.509 0.5974
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.5 2.886 100.0% 0.339 0.3496
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 50.0% 31.75 1.328 75.0% -0.125 0.0949
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 100.0% 43.0 4.454 100.0% 0.343 0.6261
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.379 80.0% 0.172 0.9431
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.699 50.0% -0.187 0.9805
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -4.113 20.0% -1.4 -0.2681
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -1.292 100.0% 0.074 -0.0484
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 5.042 100.0% 0.069 0.5067
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 56.0 10.736 100.0% 0.25 1.5089
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 12.208 100.0% 0.056 2.1167
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.244 33.33% -0.796 1.1399

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -4.603 100.0% 0.397 0.974
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 47.11 7.788 77.78% -0.273 0.1278
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 5.042 100.0% 0.069 0.4498
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 22 18.18% 41.32 2.831 68.18% -0.175 0.1904
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 25.797 100.0% 0.078 0.7064
Second Wave 0 15 46.67% 30.4 -1.146 80.0% -0.011 0.405
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 1.249 100.0% 0.035 1.0713

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.82 60.0% -0.702 1.3679
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 30.67 -0.348 66.67% -0.295 1.6229
All Things Weaken 4 34.5 -1.038 50.0% -0.777 1.3776
Back Against the Wall 11 33.09 -0.156 81.82% 0.01 2.1062
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 34.4 0.424 80.0% 0.225 2.4492
Downward Spiral 15 26.13 -2.4 46.67% -1.258 0.7584
Erosion of Will 16 39.38 1.627 62.5% -0.706 1.5038
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 48.0 6.161 100.0% 0.105 0.8092
Memory Fades to Dust 8 34.0 0.298 75.0% -0.189 2.0258
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 31.5 -1.929 50.0% -0.672 1.3476
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 -2.342 57.14% -0.767 1.4454
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 51.0 4.787 100.0% 0.12 0.5557
Thriving Communities 2 22.5 -4.074 50.0% -0.538 1.5597
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.576 100.0% 0.2 2.4183
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 7.788 50.0% -0.296 1.7814
Untended Land Crumbles 2 63.0 11.38 100.0% 0.194 2.2923

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 187 39.78% 32.61 -0.789 80.21% 0.334 -0.7559
B 208 40.2% 33.68 0.365 77.4% -0.148 -1.3328
C 193 40.74% 33.08 -0.783 77.2% -0.317 -1.7319
D 197 38.74% 33.09 -0.389 79.7% 0.015 -1.1617
E 37 45.95% 38.32 1.294 78.38% -0.129 -1.4055
F 66 42.86% 34.45 -0.159 77.27% -0.139 -1.3824
G 61 38.33% 35.0 -0.207 77.05% -0.294 -1.5244
H 47 34.04% 37.96 1.33 85.11% 0.713 -0.5267

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 22.17 -2.144 100.0% 0.469 2.5133
Not Using Events or Tokens 22 27.78% 23.23 -3.921 77.27% -0.318 -0.0993
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 14.29% 39.11 1.63 100.0% 0.665 -0.0391
Start of Game Growth 18 6.67% 39.0 2.612 88.89% 0.005 -0.4494
Unlimited Undo 18 25.0% 35.89 0.304 94.44% 0.385 -0.0273
Using Tokens but Not Events 15 15.38% 24.2 -3.504 93.33% 0.465 0.4171

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23 22.34 13.04%
II 73 30.75 65.75%
III 109 34.26 92.66%
IV 44 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 56
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 32
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27
Lose: Adversary condition 21
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)