Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.041
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 32 18.75% 40.0 59.38% -0.194
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.216
Second Wave 0 31 48.39% 26.9 80.65%
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 30.33 66.67% 0.385 0.5467 -0.203
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% 0.219
All Things Weaken 14 31.21 42.86% -0.335 -0.0284 0.436
Attenuated Essence 1 40.0 0.0% -0.053
Back Against the Wall 27 38.04 81.48% -0.012
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.33 33.33% -0.312
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 31.0 46.67% -0.416
Downward Spiral 28 26.93 50.0% -0.137
Erosion of Will 24 34.75 66.67% -0.14
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.101 -0.3885 0.438
Memory Fades to Dust 27 30.11 62.96% -0.462 -0.2107 -0.29
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 26.08 61.54% -0.04
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.289
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 30.25 50.0% -0.015
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 7 30.29 57.14% -0.363
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 15 22.67 40.0% 0.522
Untended Land Crumbles 11 31.73 45.45% 0.053

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 418 39.3% 28.95 70.57% -0.351 0.5123 -0.798
B 436 41.0% 28.82 69.72% -1.086 -0.2609 0.387
C 421 41.28% 29.7 69.6% 1.244 1.94 -0.264
D 411 38.23% 29.79 73.24% 0.255 1.0679 0.42
E 173 50.87% 33.51 73.99% -0.177 0.5153 0.615
F 188 47.57% 32.61 72.34% -0.061 0.7349 0.252
G 183 52.75% 31.79 71.58% 0.384 1.2199 -0.409
H 160 53.75% 31.23 68.75% -0.18 0.6084 -0.223

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 16 0.0% 13.38 56.25% -0.195 0.5918
Not Using Events or Tokens 55 29.27% 18.38 58.18% -0.539 -0.139
Skip Initial Invader Actions 16 7.69% 40.13 100.0% 0.349 -0.294 0.216
Start of Game Growth 39 14.29% 34.69 74.36% -0.381 -0.9151 0.216
Unlimited Undo 50 21.28% 30.02 84.0% -0.381 -0.3321 0.349
Using Tokens but Not Events 80 26.92% 25.2 83.75% 0.085 0.0523 0.053

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 88 15.83 4.55%
II 180 30.49 60.56%
III 237 34.78 92.41%
IV 94 38.41 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 213
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 100
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 94
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 34
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 54
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 61
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-29 05:26:49 (Pacific Time)