Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 59.67 100.0% 0.272
Blitz 0 8 0.0% 11.38 50.0% -0.085 0.1165
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.175
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 35 17.14% 40.86 60.0% 0.166 -0.435 0.202
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 0.0% 55.67 100.0% 0.191
Second Wave 0 36 50.0% 24.86 75.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 23.5 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 25 29.88 64.0% -0.072 0.0125 -0.133
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 34.18 58.82% -0.072 -0.1561 0.193
All Things Weaken 20 30.65 40.0% 0.403
Attenuated Essence 4 36.25 25.0% -0.062 -0.0788 0.418
Back Against the Wall 29 37.17 75.86% -0.063 -0.0157 -0.305
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 27.5 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 22.89 44.44% -0.283
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 28.37 52.63% -0.408
Downward Spiral 40 22.35 52.5% 0.37 0.4517 -0.133
Erosion of Will 29 32.97 58.62% -0.284
Intensifying Exploitation 2 22.0 50.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.671
Memory Fades to Dust 34 26.74 50.0% -0.157 0.043 -0.409
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 23.29 52.94% -0.282
Promising Farmlands 10 40.6 70.0% 0.3 0.4973 0.73
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 71.0 100.0% 0.21 0.218 0.273
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 34.5 62.5% -0.154 0.1214 -0.085
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.258
Thriving Communities 9 33.89 66.67% -0.308
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 50.0%
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 21 22.24 38.1% -0.546 -0.4289 0.319
Untended Land Crumbles 12 30.33 50.0% 0.071

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 530 39.72% 27.18 67.55% 0.262 1.2136 -0.576
B 544 40.61% 27.09 66.18% 0.141 1.0032 0.32
C 530 42.13% 27.5 65.09% -0.876 -0.2135 -0.506
D 523 38.48% 27.13 67.3% -0.553 0.3215 0.102
E 247 52.63% 30.2 66.8% -0.461 0.2468 0.572
F 249 46.34% 30.88 69.48% 1.161 1.9726 0.393
G 234 52.36% 29.61 69.23% 0.131 0.8895 -0.477
H 207 55.07% 29.91 64.25% 0.171 0.9317 0.146

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 9.33 37.5% -0.514 0.1657
Not Using Events or Tokens 72 32.0% 16.21 50.0% 0.113 0.5159 0.024
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 8.33% 29.37 77.78% 0.104 -0.6665 0.191
Start of Game Growth 50 26.09% 32.12 70.0% 0.104 -0.3583 0.191
Unlimited Undo 78 25.68% 24.95 71.79% 0.328 0.26 0.25
Using Tokens but Not Events 106 37.5% 25.09 78.3% 0.382 0.327 -0.136

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 148 13.74 3.38%
II 221 30.19 62.44%
III 287 34.82 90.24%
IV 112 38.64 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 253
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 129
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 111
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 80
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 67
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 77
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-14 03:10:23 (Pacific Time)