Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 75.0% 43.75 4.587 75.0% 0.199 1.2567
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 71.43% 19.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 18 33.33% 44.39 6.721 94.44% 0.083 0.0203
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 63.64% 42.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 50.0% 44.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 0.0% 27.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 26.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 75.0% 38.94 -7.353 62.5% -0.37 0.6445
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 85.71% 36.57 2.299 28.57% -0.307 1.2355
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 33.33% 50.94 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 15 66.67% 39.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 50.0% 36.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 82.35%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 53.1 60.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 44.0 4.901 100.0% 0.113 0.5463
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 60.0 6.423 100.0% 0.088 0.8278
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 50.0% 38.5 -4.632 25.0% -0.347 0.9298
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 31.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 100.0% 42.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 87.5% 26.75 -3.246 25.0% -0.207 0.5975
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 3.282 100.0% 0.126 0.4182
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 52.75 83.33% 0.269 0.062 0.034
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.16 0.8911
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 31 19.35% 41.29 61.29% -0.273
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.132
Second Wave 0 24 45.83% 25.83 79.17% -0.105 -0.0419
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0% 0.113 0.6755

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 32.42 57.89% -0.228
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 36.92 75.0% 0.54
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.289
Back Against the Wall 24 39.46 83.33% 0.412 0.5742 0.021
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 27.5 50.0% -0.274
Downward Spiral 25 27.88 48.0% -0.014 0.3387 -0.231
Erosion of Will 22 34.64 68.18% 0.343 0.7508 -0.237
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0% -0.307 0.0801
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 35.25 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 21 30.33 66.67% -0.412 0.0696 -0.293
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 25.09 63.64% -0.101
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.285 0.8714 0.212
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 20.0 100.0% 0.258 0.7912
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 40.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 33.33% -0.159
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 4 39.75 50.0% 0.089
Untended Land Crumbles 7 39.43 71.43% -0.018

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 305 40.88% 31.17 76.72% -0.443 0.3972 -0.476
B 332 41.85% 31.55 76.81% 0.253 1.0318 0.484
C 306 40.13% 32.08 74.84% -0.095 0.5587 -0.268
D 309 39.33% 31.77 78.32% 0.045 0.8446 -0.135
E 115 52.17% 34.94 79.13% 0.676 1.3049 0.575
F 142 49.64% 34.81 77.46% 0.145 0.8642 -0.154
G 133 49.24% 33.42 78.95% -0.16 0.5816 -0.338
H 111 45.05% 32.67 78.38% -0.402 0.2462 0.293

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 19.44 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 31.03% 23.28 77.78% -0.148 0.1842
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.69% 40.93 100.0% 0.269 -0.2659 0.132
Start of Game Growth 29 7.69% 37.72 82.76% -0.352 -0.6828 0.132
Unlimited Undo 33 29.03% 34.24 90.91% -0.251 -0.2731 0.45
Using Tokens but Not Events 44 30.95% 28.73 90.91% -0.362 -0.416 0.463

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43 21.03 9.3%
II 136 31.04 66.91%
III 189 34.74 91.53%
IV 71 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 170
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 82
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 71
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 34
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 40
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)