Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 59.67 100.0% 0.29
Blitz 0 7 0.0% 13.0 57.14% -0.047 0.2707
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.159
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 35 17.14% 40.86 60.0% 0.161 -0.4574 0.225
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 0.0% 55.67 100.0% 0.204
Second Wave 0 36 50.0% 24.86 75.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 23.5 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 30.33 66.67% -0.149
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% 0.196
All Things Weaken 20 30.65 40.0% 0.414
Attenuated Essence 4 36.25 25.0% -0.08 -0.0824 0.426
Back Against the Wall 28 37.54 78.57% -0.195
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 27.5 50.0% 0.22 0.4061
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 22.89 44.44% -0.151 -0.1459 -0.277
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 28.37 52.63% -0.398
Downward Spiral 39 22.67 51.28% 0.168 0.2348 -0.137
Erosion of Will 29 32.97 58.62% -0.17 -0.009 -0.265
Intensifying Exploitation 2 22.0 50.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.652
Memory Fades to Dust 34 26.74 50.0% -0.181 0.0289 -0.415
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 23.29 52.94% -0.284
Promising Farmlands 9 38.33 66.67% 0.549
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 71.0 100.0% 0.155 0.2221 0.278
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 34.5 62.5% -0.139 0.253 -0.102
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.264
Thriving Communities 9 33.89 66.67% 0.184 0.403 -0.312
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 50.0% -0.196 -0.4433
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 21 22.24 38.1% -0.54 -0.495 0.339
Untended Land Crumbles 12 30.33 50.0% 0.047

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 514 40.41% 27.36 67.9% 0.87 1.8092 -0.561
B 527 41.58% 27.2 66.03% 0.044 0.9 0.265
C 521 41.88% 27.66 65.64% -0.627 0.0705 -0.508
D 507 38.92% 27.29 67.65% -0.986 -0.1382 0.126
E 234 54.27% 30.64 68.8% 0.124 0.7957 0.621
F 238 48.09% 31.11 68.91% 0.651 1.4347 0.315
G 224 54.71% 29.7 69.64% -0.067 0.6885 -0.464
H 201 55.72% 29.89 65.17% -0.027 0.6958 0.185

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 9.33 37.5% -0.498 0.1851
Not Using Events or Tokens 71 30.61% 16.3 49.3% -0.127 0.3463 0.025
Skip Initial Invader Actions 26 8.7% 28.23 76.92% -0.458 -1.2135 0.204
Start of Game Growth 49 26.67% 31.57 69.39% 0.163 -0.239 0.204
Unlimited Undo 77 26.03% 24.51 71.43% 0.197 0.1388 0.273
Using Tokens but Not Events 103 38.61% 24.73 77.67% 0.087 -0.0323 -0.136

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 140 14.08 3.57%
II 207 30.26 61.35%
III 286 34.84 90.21%
IV 110 38.62 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 252
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 118
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 109
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 75
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 63
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 75
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-29 14:58:43 (Pacific Time)