Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 50.5 100.0% 0.251 0.0306
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.052
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 18.18% 41.09 60.61% 0.186 -0.3958 0.126
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.208
Second Wave 0 32 50.0% 26.06 78.13% -0.231 -0.1519
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 30.33 66.67% 0.311 0.4144 -0.178
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% 0.194
All Things Weaken 14 31.21 42.86% 0.422
Attenuated Essence 2 29.5 0.0% -0.226 -0.2277 -0.066
Back Against the Wall 28 37.54 78.57% -0.319 -0.2537 -0.181
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.33 33.33% -0.324
Disintegrating Ecosystem 17 30.29 52.94% 0.265 0.6404 -0.402
Downward Spiral 28 26.93 50.0% -0.08
Erosion of Will 27 34.11 62.96% -0.181 0.0755 -0.16
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.142 -0.3447 0.534
Memory Fades to Dust 28 29.04 60.71% -0.183 -0.0004 -0.278
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 24.21 57.14% -0.231 -0.0185 -0.047
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.309
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 40.0 60.0% -0.022
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.242 -0.7585 -0.246
Thriving Communities 7 30.29 57.14% -0.382
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 15 22.67 40.0% 0.484
Untended Land Crumbles 11 31.73 45.45% 0.07

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 433 40.24% 28.67 69.75% -0.365 0.4981 -0.603
B 447 40.84% 28.39 69.13% -0.328 0.4931 0.066
C 437 41.33% 29.29 69.11% 0.604 1.302 -0.274
D 429 38.93% 29.41 72.49% 0.132 0.9883 0.248
E 180 51.11% 33.45 73.33% -0.088 0.6009 0.551
F 197 48.97% 32.65 71.57% -0.55 0.2674 0.346
G 188 53.48% 31.95 71.28% 0.542 1.4229 -0.472
H 164 54.27% 31.61 68.29% 0.065 0.8453 0.114

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 18 0.0% 12.33 50.0% -0.389 0.3262
Not Using Events or Tokens 58 28.57% 18.02 56.9% -0.357 0.1167
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 6.67% 38.17 100.0% 0.279 -0.2878 0.208
Start of Game Growth 39 14.29% 34.69 74.36% -0.194 -0.8582 0.208
Unlimited Undo 52 20.41% 29.73 84.62% 0.086 0.1087 0.367
Using Tokens but Not Events 81 26.58% 25.16 83.95% 0.169 0.2171 -0.083

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 96 15.45 4.17%
II 186 30.45 60.75%
III 242 34.8 92.56%
IV 96 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 218
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 104
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 96
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 38
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 65
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)