Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 40.5 4.796 100.0% 0.367 1.2504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 39.5 0.285 50.0% -0.347 0.8953
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 8.7 100.0% 0.379 1.8759
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.757 0.0% -0.848 1.195
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 50.0% 23.5 -3.016 75.0% -0.172 -0.1311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.0 1.131 100.0% 0.611 0.5928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 18.18% 46.36 7.555 100.0% 0.816 0.8292
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 55.56% 41.33 4.756 66.67% -0.261 0.0225
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.33 7.428 83.33% 0.229 0.5879
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.34 0.0% -0.59 0.2348
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 15.04 100.0% 0.188 1.4276
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.583 100.0% 0.296 0.6255
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 1.348 87.5% 0.165 0.6817
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -4.927 33.33% -0.877 0.0961
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.841 0.0% -1.297 0.2831
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 70.0% 40.0 3.819 60.0% -0.64 0.8548
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 33.25 -0.143 25.0% -0.848 1.2224
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 50.46 6.546 46.15% -0.958 1.2859
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 0.778 100.0% 0.419 0.9306
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 32.33 1.045 100.0% 0.509 1.4111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 3.013 70.0% -0.208 1.9332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.847 37.5% -1.312 0.8861
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 11.127 82.35% -0.105 2.0553
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 45.25 7.143 50.0% -0.27 1.5472
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9 55.56% 50.67 8.654 55.56% -0.759 1.3323
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.56 100.0% 0.52 0.6082
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.5 2.905 100.0% 0.393 0.4283
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6 50.0% 30.17 -0.025 66.67% -0.312 -0.075
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 100.0% 43.0 4.12 100.0% 0.278 0.5685
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.686 80.0% 0.182 0.9629
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.598 50.0% -0.175 0.9934
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -4.649 20.0% -1.434 -0.3114
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -0.739 100.0% 0.112 0.0229
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 -6.032 0.0% -0.486 0.2932
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 5.261 100.0% 0.114 0.5261
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 56.0 9.961 100.0% 0.271 1.5151
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 12.739 100.0% 0.091 2.0749
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.651 33.33% -0.674 1.198

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -5.05 100.0% 0.354 0.9198
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 10.0% 47.1 7.709 80.0% -0.159 0.2416
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 5.261 100.0% 0.114 0.6169
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 14.81% 41.93 2.573 66.67% -0.322 0.0424
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 24.381 100.0% 0.065 0.7104
Second Wave 0 17 47.06% 29.94 -1.345 82.35% 0.103 0.5329
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 0.083 100.0% 0.014 1.0457

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.907 60.0% -0.803 1.2663
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 34.5 0.716 70.0% -0.225 1.6883
All Things Weaken 9 33.44 -0.239 55.56% -0.881 1.2779
Back Against the Wall 12 32.25 -1.093 75.0% -0.295 1.7915
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 29.57 -1.424 57.14% -0.285 1.9375
Downward Spiral 18 28.11 -1.92 50.0% -1.188 0.8336
Erosion of Will 16 39.38 1.612 62.5% -0.6 1.6077
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 34.5 0.598 50.0% -0.078 0.6003
Memory Fades to Dust 9 33.78 0.271 77.78% -0.121 2.0935
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 36.67 0.687 66.67% -0.61 1.411
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 -3.205 57.14% -0.918 1.2896
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 46.0 4.463 100.0% 0.209 0.6202
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 -3.823 33.33% -0.774 1.3142
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.396 100.0% 0.188 2.4127
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 5.119 50.0% -0.358 1.7233
Untended Land Crumbles 3 59.67 9.351 100.0% 0.31 2.4117

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 212 39.22% 32.15 -1.379 79.25% 0.113 -0.5752
B 237 41.99% 33.38 -0.013 76.79% 0.01 -0.774
C 220 40.65% 32.68 -1.136 75.91% -0.439 -1.4516
D 221 38.5% 32.88 -0.505 79.64% 0.051 -0.7265
E 47 46.81% 39.87 1.823 76.6% 0.009 -0.8854
F 78 48.0% 35.38 -0.284 74.36% -0.166 -1.0073
G 75 41.89% 36.95 0.456 77.33% -0.174 -1.006
H 62 40.32% 38.76 1.681 82.26% 0.633 -0.2063

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 19.88 -3.168 87.5% 0.011 2.0638
Not Using Events or Tokens 30 29.17% 22.8 -3.927 76.67% -0.347 -0.1323
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 12.5% 40.5 1.951 100.0% 0.58 -0.1065
Start of Game Growth 20 5.88% 39.55 2.771 90.0% 0.114 -0.3551
Unlimited Undo 22 30.0% 38.18 1.105 95.45% 0.764 0.3412
Using Tokens but Not Events 20 16.67% 25.8 -2.815 95.0% 0.748 0.6975

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26 22.37 11.54%
II 90 30.88 65.56%
III 125 34.39 92.0%
IV 47 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 70
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 42
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 24
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)