Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 40.0 6.002 100.0% 0.264 1.1115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 26.0 -8.631 0.0% -0.539 0.699
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 53.5 10.853 100.0% 0.264 1.7862
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -4.716 0.0% -0.751 1.3414
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 50.0% 15.5 -6.793 50.0% -0.505 -0.4574
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 25.0% 34.25 1.651 100.0% 0.486 0.4578
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 0.0% 48.78 8.045 100.0% 0.652 0.6498
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 43.0 5.16 71.43% -0.093 0.1909
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 4 50.0% 51.75 9.091 100.0% 0.624 1.0022
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.551 0.0% -0.615 0.2189
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 16.007 100.0% 0.266 1.5157
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.677 100.0% 0.289 0.6219
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 0.0% 35.29 1.859 85.71% 0.241 0.7241
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -5.186 33.33% -0.853 0.1038
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.839 0.0% -1.317 0.2601
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 66.67% 42.11 4.388 66.67% -0.541 0.9809
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 43.5 4.411 50.0% -0.325 1.7391
The Kingdom of England 6 11 8 37.5% 47.5 5.223 37.5% -0.702 1.5536
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 1.143 100.0% 0.515 1.0391
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 31.0 0.117 100.0% 0.31 1.2015
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 2.647 70.0% -0.174 1.954
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.787 37.5% -1.258 0.9281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 37.5% 53.38 10.723 81.25% -0.136 2.0094
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 37.33 5.33 33.33% -0.253 1.5654
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 48.0 7.282 50.0% -1.068 1.0666
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.32 100.0% 0.529 0.6143
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 42.33 4.327 100.0% 0.222 0.2319
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 50.0% 31.75 1.16 75.0% -0.113 0.104
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 37.0 4.385 100.0% 0.223 0.508
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.37 80.0% 0.19 0.9675
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.252 50.0% -0.177 0.9885
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -3.991 20.0% -1.377 -0.2446
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -1.315 100.0% 0.074 -0.0435
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.969 100.0% 0.07 0.5063
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 50.0% 54.5 10.929 100.0% 0.194 1.469
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 12.405 100.0% 0.068 2.104
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.22 33.33% -0.769 1.1803

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -4.779 100.0% 0.401 0.9736
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 47.11 7.611 77.78% -0.253 0.1481
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 4.969 100.0% 0.07 0.5356
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 22 18.18% 41.32 2.93 68.18% -0.14 0.2352
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 25.316 100.0% 0.095 0.7169
Second Wave 0 15 46.67% 30.4 -1.317 80.0% 0.034 0.453
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 2.421 100.0% 0.039 1.0697

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.78 60.0% -0.696 1.3717
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 30.67 -0.308 66.67% -0.279 1.6374
All Things Weaken 4 34.5 -1.219 50.0% -0.761 1.3995
Back Against the Wall 9 35.78 1.169 77.78% -0.05 2.0418
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 34.4 0.419 80.0% 0.224 2.4454
Downward Spiral 15 26.13 -2.322 46.67% -1.238 0.7764
Erosion of Will 13 38.08 1.32 53.85% -0.714 1.4978
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 48.0 6.073 100.0% 0.109 0.821
Memory Fades to Dust 8 34.0 0.426 75.0% -0.154 2.0619
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 31.5 -1.846 50.0% -0.696 1.3236
Promising Farmlands 5 29.2 -2.592 40.0% -0.873 1.3415
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 51.0 4.64 100.0% 0.118 0.5347
Thriving Communities 2 22.5 -4.063 50.0% -0.541 1.5661
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.613 100.0% 0.204 2.4196
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 7.679 50.0% -0.291 1.7893
Untended Land Crumbles 2 63.0 11.533 100.0% 0.195 2.2899

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 182 40.11% 32.68 -0.748 79.67% 0.369 -0.7042
B 198 38.97% 33.72 0.682 76.26% -0.157 -1.321
C 182 39.11% 32.93 -0.851 75.82% -0.343 -1.7396
D 188 37.16% 32.99 -0.623 78.72% 0.021 -1.137
E 35 48.57% 38.14 1.175 77.14% -0.12 -1.3768
F 60 38.6% 34.53 -0.065 75.0% -0.19 -1.4159
G 59 37.93% 34.69 -0.453 76.27% -0.254 -1.466
H 44 31.82% 38.3 1.603 84.09% 0.708 -0.5136

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 22.4 -1.459 100.0% 0.406 2.4449
Not Using Events or Tokens 20 29.41% 22.5 -4.224 75.0% -0.352 -0.1315
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7 0.0% 42.71 3.135 100.0% 0.569 -0.137
Start of Game Growth 16 7.14% 40.06 2.539 87.5% -0.025 -0.4843
Unlimited Undo 14 8.33% 33.64 -0.781 92.86% 0.313 -0.0891
Using Tokens but Not Events 15 15.38% 24.2 -3.733 93.33% 0.521 0.4749

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22 22.34 9.09%
II 72 30.71 65.28%
III 107 34.23 92.52%
IV 36 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 31
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19
Lose: Adversary condition 21
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)