Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 81.82% 45.18 5.769 81.82% 0.282 1.2491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 100.0% 28.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 55.56% 17.89 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 30.77% 29.85 5.33 84.62% 0.16 0.2757
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 25 32.0% 42.88 96.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15 46.67% 44.53 8.18 80.0% 0.434 0.6569
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 57.14% 38.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 40.0% 20.8 -0.503 30.0% -0.316 0.4124
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 50.0% 26.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 70.59% 38.12 58.82%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 42.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 19 31.58% 48.26 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 23.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 21 71.43% 39.19 7.616 66.67% 0.122 1.2238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 13 61.54% 35.0 2.325 38.46% -0.186 1.2059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 54.39 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 19 63.16% 46.74 31.58%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 36.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 16 56.25% 37.69 1.991 12.5% -0.253 0.7141
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7 14.29% 23.57 -3.457 85.71% -0.139 0.0661
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 40.0% 28.7 -1.814 70.0% -0.177 0.0367
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 100.0% 42.38 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 72.73% 21.0 -7.939 18.18% -0.272 0.8342
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 100.0% 17.4 -0.83 0.0% -0.389 0.5869
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 75.0% 32.0 25.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.382 0.1702 0.065
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 32 18.75% 40.0 59.38% -0.107
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.186
Second Wave 0 31 48.39% 26.9 80.65%
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 33.0 60.0% -0.176
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% 0.22
All Things Weaken 14 31.21 42.86% -0.389 -0.0344 0.385
Attenuated Essence 1 40.0 0.0% -0.045
Back Against the Wall 27 38.04 81.48% 0.02
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.33 33.33% -0.328
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 31.0 46.67% -0.416
Downward Spiral 28 26.93 50.0% -0.117
Erosion of Will 24 34.75 66.67% -0.118
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 30.0 66.67%
Memory Fades to Dust 27 30.11 62.96% -0.081 0.2308 -0.274
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 26.08 61.54% -0.035
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.278
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 30.25 50.0% -0.017
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 7 30.29 57.14% -0.356
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 15 22.67 40.0% -0.051 0.0967 0.459
Untended Land Crumbles 11 31.73 45.45% 0.09

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 405 40.51% 29.07 70.62% 0.544 1.4487 -0.626
B 426 40.92% 29.13 69.95% -1.218 -0.3891 0.427
C 404 41.69% 29.73 68.81% -0.071 0.6089 -0.485
D 396 39.37% 29.72 72.98% 0.333 1.1859 0.287
E 166 52.41% 33.6 74.1% 0.602 1.3032 0.574
F 181 49.44% 32.87 72.38% -0.114 0.6673 0.377
G 173 52.91% 32.23 71.1% -0.094 0.6773 -0.498
H 155 52.9% 31.8 68.39% 0.039 0.8072 -0.074

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 12.4 53.33% -0.467 0.3637
Not Using Events or Tokens 52 30.77% 18.06 59.62% -0.223 0.2185
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.69% 40.93 100.0% 0.186
Start of Game Growth 38 14.71% 35.61 76.32% -0.003 -0.5413 0.186
Unlimited Undo 49 21.74% 30.63 85.71% -0.01 0.0305 0.329
Using Tokens but Not Events 75 28.77% 25.12 84.0% 0.277 0.2537 0.287

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 83 16.23 4.82%
II 178 30.54 60.11%
III 228 34.77 92.11%
IV 89 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 204
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 98
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 89
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 31
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 52
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 61
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)