Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 25.5 2.207 50.0% 0.086 0.459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 75.0% 43.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4 100.0% 45.0 -3.784 75.0% -0.234 1.1535
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 100.0% 28.8 -0.645 20.0% -0.332 1.5618
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 55.56% 17.89 4.446 66.67% 0.275 0.4778
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 23 34.78% 43.3 4.527 95.65% 0.357 0.2769
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13 53.85% 44.46 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 57.14% 38.0 -5.505 42.86% -0.366 0.9665
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 29.5 2.207 83.33% 0.086 0.2721
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 66.67% 24.0 3.088 50.0% 0.516 1.201
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 70.59% 38.12 58.82%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 42.0 8.934 44.44% 0.436 1.9316
The Kingdom of England 6 11 19 31.58% 48.26 -4.76 42.11% -0.229 1.7244
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 23.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 73.68% 39.26 3.007 68.42% 0.104 1.2238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 54.55% 37.73 45.45%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 54.39 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 19 63.16% 46.74 31.58%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 50.0% 36.0 -0.81 75.0% -0.12 0.2254
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 0.0% 42.67 6.861 100.0% 0.273 0.6717
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15 60.0% 38.27 -9.696 13.33% -0.345 0.7778
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 33.33% 30.89 2.483 77.78% 0.284 0.4017
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 100.0% 42.38 2.972 100.0% 0.225 0.6962
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10 80.0% 23.1 -3.433 20.0% -0.31 0.6884
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 26.0 0.85 50.0% 0.088 0.6958
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 75.0% 32.0 25.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 23.08% 52.31 84.62% 0.127 -0.1314 0.063
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 32 18.75% 40.0 59.38% -0.229 -0.9771 -0.122
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0% -0.12 0.6691
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.167
Second Wave 0 29 48.28% 27.66 82.76% 0.441 0.5245
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 32.42 57.89% -0.184
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 36.0 66.67% -0.609 -0.6566 0.212
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.381
Attenuated Essence 1 40.0 0.0% -0.046
Back Against the Wall 27 38.04 81.48% -0.366 -0.2792 0.026
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.33 33.33% -0.265 -0.1421 -0.332
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 32.69 53.85% 0.225 0.6327 -0.421
Downward Spiral 26 27.31 46.15% -0.132
Erosion of Will 23 35.52 69.57% -0.14
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 30.0 66.67% -0.059 -0.5381
Memory Fades to Dust 21 30.33 66.67% -0.28
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 26.08 61.54% -0.044
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.276
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 30.25 50.0% 0.044 0.4853 -0.019
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0% 0.436 -0.2959
Thriving Communities 7 30.29 57.14% 0.268 0.5382 -0.368
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 5 44.0 60.0% 0.467 0.6296 0.451
Untended Land Crumbles 11 31.73 45.45% -0.661 -0.3469 0.095

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 362 40.63% 30.2 73.76% 0.146 1.1269 -0.572
B 386 40.48% 30.45 74.35% -0.178 0.722 0.457
C 362 40.68% 31.12 71.55% -0.056 0.6646 -0.469
D 361 39.89% 30.82 75.07% 0.216 1.1433 0.228
E 136 54.41% 35.41 78.68% 0.26 1.0092 0.536
F 162 49.06% 34.35 75.31% -0.081 0.7868 0.345
G 159 50.0% 33.0 74.21% -0.469 0.3646 -0.526
H 137 49.64% 33.12 71.53% 0.181 0.9899 -0.016

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 17.7 80.0% -0.305 0.3309
Not Using Events or Tokens 43 28.57% 20.86 69.77% 0.045 0.5547
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.69% 40.93 100.0% 0.167
Start of Game Growth 34 16.13% 38.79 82.35% 0.215 -0.1934 0.167
Unlimited Undo 42 25.0% 32.19 92.86% 0.817 0.8743 0.457
Using Tokens but Not Events 63 22.95% 26.79 90.48% 0.886 0.8564 0.278

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 66 17.82 6.06%
II 155 30.73 64.52%
III 208 34.75 91.83%
IV 89 38.2 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 187
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 91
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 89
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 21
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 44
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 49
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-28 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)