Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 2 100.0% 36.5 2.622 50.0% -0.039 0.4028
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 17.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 85.71% 37.79 64.29%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 47.0 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 100.0% 28.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 10 60.0% 18.7 1.637 70.0% 0.113 0.3062
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 37.5% 34.13 6.342 87.5% 0.238 0.2914
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 27 33.33% 43.33 9.271 96.3% 0.353 0.4672
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 52.94% 44.47 0.808 76.47% -0.221 0.0549
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 57.14% 38.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 7.69% 34.15 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 13 53.85% 23.08 2.758 38.46% -0.058 0.5406
The Kingdom of England 3 6 6 33.33% 25.17 16.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 66.67% 36.0 55.56%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 42.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 30.0% 45.85 -2.891 40.0% -0.215 1.6529
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 23.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 23 65.22% 40.26 69.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 15 66.67% 37.0 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 54.39 83.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 27 55.56% 47.07 -5.875 40.74% -0.441 1.0407
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 18.5 -0.993 50.0% -0.133 0.1596
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 33.33% 36.67 83.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 20.0% 35.4 6.138 60.0% 0.125 0.3934
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 83.33% 28.33 16.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 100.0% 36.57 42.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 59.09% 32.55 13.64%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 25.0% 23.63 3.856 87.5% 0.322 0.5355
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 37.5% 36.13 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 40.0% 28.7 70.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 88.89% 37.67 -5.03 88.89% -0.162 0.2914
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 76.92% 17.77 15.38%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 30.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 71.43% 21.71 14.29%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 59.67 100.0% 0.259
Blitz 0 7 0.0% 13.0 57.14% 0.095 0.53
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.142
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.204 0.7405
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 18.18% 41.09 60.61% 0.139
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 0.0% 55.67 100.0% 0.241
Second Wave 0 36 50.0% 24.86 75.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 23.5 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 30.33 66.67% -0.161
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 35.31 62.5% 0.204
All Things Weaken 20 30.65 40.0% 0.428
Attenuated Essence 3 40.67 33.33% 0.502
Back Against the Wall 28 37.54 78.57% -0.16
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 27.5 50.0% 0.243 0.4267
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 22.89 44.44% -0.376 -0.2277 -0.286
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 28.37 52.63% 0.322 0.6617 -0.397
Downward Spiral 38 22.21 50.0% -0.192 -0.0757 -0.106
Erosion of Will 29 32.97 58.62% -0.133 0.0701 -0.281
Intensifying Exploitation 2 22.0 50.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.613
Memory Fades to Dust 33 27.55 51.52% -0.346
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 23.29 52.94% -0.221 -0.0849 -0.281
Promising Farmlands 9 38.33 66.67% 0.535
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 39.43 71.43% 0.318 0.8705 -0.018
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.287
Thriving Communities 9 33.89 66.67% 0.166 0.4662 -0.33
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 50.0% -0.051 -0.259
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 18 22.44 44.44% 0.044 0.2076 0.481
Untended Land Crumbles 12 30.33 50.0% 0.34 0.6083 0.052

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 498 40.34% 27.53 68.47% 0.374 1.2956 -0.589
B 512 41.26% 27.47 67.19% 0.5 1.3352 0.25
C 511 41.75% 27.96 66.73% -0.399 0.3008 -0.375
D 495 38.48% 27.62 69.09% -0.36 0.4917 0.205
E 225 55.11% 30.85 68.89% 0.144 0.8145 0.528
F 231 48.68% 31.06 67.97% -0.098 0.6702 0.257
G 223 54.5% 29.65 69.51% -0.352 0.4342 -0.428
H 195 55.9% 30.01 65.13% 0.173 0.9229 0.13

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 10.09 40.91% -0.153 0.5496
Not Using Events or Tokens 68 31.25% 15.9 50.0% -0.368 0.1291 -0.353
Skip Initial Invader Actions 26 8.7% 28.23 76.92% -0.596 -1.0756 0.241
Start of Game Growth 49 26.67% 31.57 69.39% 0.081 -0.4636 0.241
Unlimited Undo 73 25.71% 24.3 71.23% 0.13 0.0446 0.115
Using Tokens but Not Events 97 37.89% 24.65 78.35% -0.037

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 130 14.38 3.08%
II 202 30.32 60.89%
III 284 34.84 90.49%
IV 108 38.6 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 251
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 114
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 107
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 69
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 60
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 73
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-16 03:12:48 (Pacific Time)