Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 4 100.0% 33.75 2.138 25.0% -0.375 0.1283
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 100.0% 0.0 -7.021 0.0% -0.207 0.7664
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 2 50.0% 11.5 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 12.75 -7.135 25.0% -0.24 0.2333
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 16.67% 34.33 4.0 83.33% 0.281 0.5723
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 85.71% 37.79 64.29%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 100.0% 39.17 -4.439 66.67% -0.21 1.0684
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 24.0 16.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 69.23% 15.15 -1.589 53.85% -0.284 -0.0609
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 37.5% 34.13 -1.886 87.5% -0.158 -0.1916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 28 35.71% 43.21 96.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 52.94% 44.47 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 60.0% 42.5 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 50.0% 33.25 37.5%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 11 0.0% 28.09 90.91%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 7.69% 34.15 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 13 53.85% 23.08 38.46%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 63.64% 30.0 4.867 36.36% 0.394 1.4339
The Kingdom of England 4 7 22 63.64% 33.73 -7.959 50.0% -0.341 0.6582
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 42.0 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 37.5% 43.46 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 20.0% 23.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 23 65.22% 40.26 69.57%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 15 66.67% 37.0 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 21 33.33% 49.9 0.439 71.43% -0.373 0.9366
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 29 55.17% 46.31 19.953 41.38% 0.41 1.8027
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 18.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 33.33% 36.67 83.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 20.0% 35.4 60.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 71.43% 31.57 10.873 28.57% 0.29 0.7969
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 100.0% 36.57 42.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 25 60.0% 33.92 3.24 20.0% -0.046 1.0344
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 25.0% 23.63 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 37.5% 36.13 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 40.0% 28.7 70.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 88.89% 37.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 7 71.43% 42.0 6.652 85.71% 0.37 1.1247
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 76.92% 17.77 15.38%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 30.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 40.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 100.0% 14.5 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 71.43% 21.71 14.29%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 59.67 100.0% 0.272
Blitz 0 8 0.0% 11.38 50.0% -0.341 -0.0911
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 20.0% 51.07 86.67% 0.168
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 35 17.14% 40.86 60.0% 0.266
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 11.67 0.0% -0.094 0.5298
Rituals of Terror 3 3 0.0% 55.67 100.0% 0.221
Second Wave 0 37 48.65% 24.89 75.68% 0.184 0.3012
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 23.5 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 27 28.74 62.96% -0.017 0.2328 -0.16
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 34.18 58.82% 0.226
All Things Weaken 20 30.65 40.0% 0.434
Attenuated Essence 5 29.0 20.0% -0.21 -0.1832 0.424
Back Against the Wall 29 37.17 75.86% -0.269
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 25.0 66.67% 0.157 0.3738
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 22.89 44.44% -0.291
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 28.37 52.63% -0.366
Downward Spiral 43 21.02 48.84% -0.284 -0.1753 -0.109
Erosion of Will 32 34.28 62.5% 0.394 0.7463 -0.295
Intensifying Exploitation 2 22.0 50.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 35.29 71.43% 0.701
Memory Fades to Dust 34 26.74 50.0% -0.409
Power Corrodes the Spirit 17 23.29 52.94% -0.27
Promising Farmlands 11 36.91 63.64% -0.013 0.2703 0.71
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 71.0 100.0% 0.278
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 34.5 62.5% -0.081
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 40.29 85.71% -0.146 -0.8413
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.234
Thriving Communities 9 33.89 66.67% -0.303
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 50.0%
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 23 23.0 34.78% -0.375 -0.2131 0.181
Untended Land Crumbles 12 30.33 50.0% 0.022

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 550 40.57% 26.99 66.55% -0.448 0.5571 -0.54
B 566 41.07% 26.9 65.37% 0.525 1.4442 0.329
C 545 43.1% 27.36 64.59% -0.268 0.4665 -0.589
D 541 38.95% 26.93 66.54% 0.24 1.2177 0.208
E 255 51.76% 29.82 66.27% -0.256 0.5638 0.583
F 258 47.84% 30.23 67.83% 0.041 0.9144 0.319
G 240 51.88% 29.27 68.75% -0.036 0.7728 -0.526
H 209 55.02% 29.86 64.59% 0.188 1.003 0.186

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 9.04 36.0% -0.096 0.6115
Not Using Events or Tokens 76 33.96% 15.43 47.37% -0.354 0.0141 0.005
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 8.33% 29.37 77.78% -0.158 -0.743 0.221
Start of Game Growth 51 25.53% 32.02 70.59% 0.011 -0.5033 0.221
Unlimited Undo 78 25.68% 24.95 71.79% 0.31
Using Tokens but Not Events 110 37.04% 25.25 79.09% 0.78 0.7544 -0.155

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 156 13.33 3.21%
II 231 30.1 61.9%
III 294 34.83 90.14%
IV 112 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 259
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 134
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 111
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 87
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 67
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 84
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)