Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 40.5 4.548 100.0% 0.346 1.2222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 39.5 0.112 50.0% -0.388 0.8573
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 8.717 100.0% 0.373 1.8751
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -6.558 0.0% -0.843 1.1996
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 50.0% 23.5 -2.938 75.0% -0.183 -0.1407
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.0 1.211 100.0% 0.606 0.5869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 18.18% 46.36 7.632 100.0% 0.811 0.8242
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 55.56% 41.33 4.704 66.67% -0.293 -0.0052
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.33 7.461 83.33% 0.22 0.5865
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.426 0.0% -0.607 0.2192
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 15.261 100.0% 0.187 1.4246
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.54 100.0% 0.281 0.6125
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 1.381 87.5% 0.169 0.6828
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -4.882 33.33% -0.853 0.1145
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.955 0.0% -1.322 0.2572
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 70.0% 40.0 4.229 60.0% -0.618 0.8802
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 33.25 -0.233 25.0% -0.841 1.232
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 45.45% 45.55 4.335 36.36% -1.198 1.0495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 0.944 100.0% 0.426 0.9404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 32.33 0.891 100.0% 0.475 1.3746
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 2.993 70.0% -0.239 1.9042
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.839 37.5% -1.327 0.8695
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 11.217 82.35% -0.137 2.0214
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 45.25 7.243 50.0% -0.261 1.5566
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9 55.56% 50.67 8.703 55.56% -0.768 1.3287
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.583 100.0% 0.485 0.5699
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.5 2.814 100.0% 0.362 0.3951
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6 50.0% 30.17 -0.064 66.67% -0.307 -0.0723
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 100.0% 43.0 4.114 100.0% 0.285 0.5718
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.622 80.0% 0.183 0.9661
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.658 50.0% -0.181 0.9856
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -4.467 20.0% -1.417 -0.2928
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -0.989 100.0% 0.109 0.0069
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 -6.021 0.0% -0.484 0.295
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.827 100.0% 0.094 0.5137
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 56.0 10.11 100.0% 0.26 1.5134
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 12.358 100.0% 0.093 2.0917
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.669 33.33% -0.669 1.2097

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -4.991 100.0% 0.357 0.9262
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 10.0% 47.1 7.669 80.0% -0.195 0.2033
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 4.827 100.0% 0.094 0.5588
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 25 16.0% 41.64 2.986 68.0% -0.172 0.1944
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 25.442 100.0% 0.08 0.7253
Second Wave 0 17 47.06% 29.94 -1.339 82.35% 0.047 0.4756
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 0.251 100.0% 0.015 1.0489

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.826 60.0% -0.78 1.2929
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 34.5 0.857 70.0% -0.229 1.6887
All Things Weaken 9 33.44 -0.035 55.56% -0.862 1.3078
Back Against the Wall 12 32.25 -0.955 75.0% -0.268 1.8236
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 29.57 -1.341 57.14% -0.295 1.9298
Downward Spiral 18 28.11 -1.859 50.0% -1.193 0.8296
Erosion of Will 16 39.38 1.683 62.5% -0.571 1.6383
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 34.5 2.26 50.0% -0.055 0.6317
Memory Fades to Dust 9 33.78 0.386 77.78% -0.09 2.1292
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 36.67 0.732 66.67% -0.612 1.4121
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 -3.06 57.14% -0.885 1.3293
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 46.0 4.381 100.0% 0.19 0.5995
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 -4.069 33.33% -0.828 1.2667
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.166 100.0% 0.194 2.4205
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 5.276 50.0% -0.347 1.7392
Untended Land Crumbles 3 59.67 9.091 100.0% 0.258 2.3638

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 210 39.6% 32.02 -1.193 79.52% 0.148 -0.6126
B 236 42.17% 33.21 -0.032 76.69% -0.061 -0.9185
C 218 41.04% 32.56 -0.816 76.15% -0.327 -1.4159
D 219 38.86% 32.47 -1.0 79.45% -0.096 -0.9464
E 45 48.89% 39.62 1.948 77.78% 0.061 -0.9037
F 78 48.0% 35.38 -0.147 74.36% -0.246 -1.1601
G 73 43.06% 36.81 0.475 78.08% -0.069 -0.9746
H 61 40.98% 38.18 1.428 81.97% 0.627 -0.2871

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 19.88 -3.183 87.5% 0.007 2.0635
Not Using Events or Tokens 30 29.17% 22.8 -3.867 76.67% -0.358 -0.1418
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 12.5% 40.5 1.99 100.0% 0.585 -0.1019
Start of Game Growth 20 5.88% 39.55 2.88 90.0% 0.115 -0.3557
Unlimited Undo 22 30.0% 38.18 1.152 95.45% 0.759 0.3391
Using Tokens but Not Events 20 16.67% 25.8 -2.801 95.0% 0.74 0.6882

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26 22.35 11.54%
II 88 30.84 65.91%
III 124 34.35 91.94%
IV 47 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 69
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 24
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)