Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 31.33 -4.004 66.67% -0.374 0.504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 50.0% 23.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 31.4 -2.306 90.0% -0.276 -0.402
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 28.57% 46.86 0.753 100.0% 0.073 0.1889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 63.64% 42.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 4.949 88.89% 0.111 0.5774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 50.0% 44.33 -2.802 50.0% -0.348 1.2271
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 0.0% 27.8 -0.316 80.0% 0.106 0.6226
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 87.5%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 26.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 72.73% 37.73 54.55%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 38.17 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 33.33% 50.94 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 -0.188 100.0% 0.198 1.0885
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 11 63.64% 35.36 63.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 50.0% 36.0 5.509 40.0% 0.139 2.5232
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 82.35%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 75.0% 45.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9 55.56% 50.67 55.56%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 54.0 2.572 100.0% 0.044 0.8886
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 55.0 4.697 100.0% 0.066 0.9365
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 31.14 -0.39 71.43% 0.076 0.5295
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 100.0% 42.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 20.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 -0.316 100.0% 0.106 0.05
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.073 -0.1291
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 11 27.27% 52.91 81.82% 0.044 0.4569 -0.033
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 30 16.67% 40.4 60.0% 0.1 0.4056 -0.293
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.148
Second Wave 0 22 40.91% 26.68 81.82%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 32.0 56.25% 0.242 2.1449 -0.281
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 34.5 70.0% 0.551
All Things Weaken 9 33.44 55.56% 0.208
Back Against the Wall 15 32.47 73.33% -0.376 1.4408 -0.304
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 27.5 50.0% -0.265
Downward Spiral 22 29.59 50.0% 0.111 2.1044 -0.227
Erosion of Will 18 40.11 61.11% -0.198
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 35.25 75.0% 0.044 0.4849
Memory Fades to Dust 15 26.93 66.67% -0.281 1.8034 -0.288
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 25.14 42.86% -0.348 1.5902 -0.136
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 57.14% 0.17
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 40.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 33.33% -0.181
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 4 39.75 50.0% 0.095 2.0598 -0.026
Untended Land Crumbles 5 48.2 100.0% 0.19

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 265 39.69% 32.25 78.87% -0.13 0.667 -0.078
B 281 41.82% 32.61 76.51% 0.064 0.8076 0.65
C 273 41.57% 32.58 74.36% -0.179 0.3893 -0.538
D 262 39.37% 33.07 79.77% 0.146 0.9416 -0.109
E 83 46.99% 36.08 78.31% 0.574 1.2215 0.326
F 105 46.08% 34.22 74.29% -0.232 0.4922 -0.26
G 102 43.56% 34.07 77.45% -0.17 0.5617 -0.225
H 87 44.83% 36.29 78.16% -0.056 0.6563 0.217

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 19.88 87.5%
Not Using Events or Tokens 33 29.63% 23.18 78.79% 0.093 0.268
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12 10.0% 43.08 100.0% 0.148
Start of Game Growth 23 5.0% 40.04 86.96% 0.148
Unlimited Undo 27 32.0% 37.48 92.59% -0.376 -0.9797 0.424
Using Tokens but Not Events 35 21.21% 27.31 94.29% 0.143 -0.0139 0.411

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 32 22.56 12.5%
II 119 30.98 64.71%
III 156 34.53 91.67%
IV 57 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 140
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 69
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 57
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 32
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 33
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)