Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 60.0% 40.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 71.43% 19.29 -6.36 71.43% -0.284 -0.4346
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16 37.5% 44.5 -0.83 93.75% -0.241 -0.1391
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 63.64% 42.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 50.0% 44.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 0.0% 27.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 1.877 88.89% 0.058 0.6304
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 26.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 72.73% 37.73 54.55%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 38.17 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 33.33% 50.94 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 15 66.67% 39.67 2.822 66.67% -0.062 2.0007
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 50.0% 36.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 82.35%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 53.1 9.031 60.0% 0.11 2.3091
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 42.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 40.0 1.782 100.0% 0.034 1.0874
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 51.33 1.425 33.33% -0.325 1.3743
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 31.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 100.0% 42.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 100.0% 26.5 16.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 11 27.27% 52.91 81.82% 0.018
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 31 19.35% 41.29 61.29% -0.318
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.136
Second Wave 0 22 40.91% 26.68 81.82%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 32.42 57.89% 0.263 2.212 -0.237
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 36.92 75.0% 0.532
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.285
Back Against the Wall 17 34.18 76.47% 0.212 2.0931 0.033
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 27.5 50.0% -0.281
Downward Spiral 23 28.43 47.83% -0.284 1.5962 -0.232
Erosion of Will 18 40.11 61.11% -0.255
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 35.25 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 17 25.24 58.82% -0.241 1.8149 -0.302
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 25.09 63.64% 0.108 2.0273 -0.11
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 57.14% 0.214
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 40.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 33.33% -0.164
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 4 39.75 50.0% 0.076
Untended Land Crumbles 7 39.43 71.43% -0.307 1.7018 -0.036

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 284 42.18% 31.84 77.82% -0.686 0.1323 -0.422
B 301 42.18% 32.25 76.74% 0.044 0.8052 0.51
C 289 41.13% 32.34 75.09% 0.287 0.8396 -0.225
D 286 40.43% 32.58 79.02% -0.503 0.2637 -0.19
E 98 48.98% 35.57 77.55% 0.079 0.705 0.54
F 121 46.61% 34.81 76.86% 0.307 1.0283 -0.224
G 117 44.83% 33.69 78.63% 0.024 0.7063 -0.286
H 97 45.36% 35.23 79.38% 0.463 1.1435 0.279

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 19.44 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 32.14% 22.77 77.14% -0.241 -0.0406
Skip Initial Invader Actions 14 8.33% 40.21 100.0% 0.139 -1.1043 0.136
Start of Game Growth 25 4.55% 40.52 88.0% 0.136
Unlimited Undo 31 27.59% 35.48 93.55% 0.325 -0.151 0.45
Using Tokens but Not Events 39 21.62% 26.74 92.31% 0.244 0.4172 0.447

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 34 22.69 11.76%
II 128 31.12 65.63%
III 170 34.69 90.59%
IV 65 37.96 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 151
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 76
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 65
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 33
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 39
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)