Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 40.5 4.528 100.0% 0.309 1.1794
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 26.0 -8.737 0.0% -0.541 0.7165
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 53.5 10.73 100.0% 0.245 1.7739
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -5.196 0.0% -0.744 1.3258
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 22.33 -3.213 66.67% -0.29 -0.252
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.0 1.59 100.0% 0.664 0.6332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10 10.0% 47.8 7.808 100.0% 0.704 0.7083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 43.0 5.273 71.43% -0.165 0.1263
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 51.75 9.274 100.0% 0.629 0.99
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.645 0.0% -0.63 0.1983
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 15.89 100.0% 0.25 1.4951
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.514 100.0% 0.26 0.5911
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 1.5 87.5% 0.264 0.7638
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -5.216 33.33% -0.856 0.1134
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.626 0.0% -1.334 0.245
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 66.67% 42.11 4.535 66.67% -0.591 0.9099
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 100.0% 43.5 4.713 50.0% -0.364 1.7054
The Kingdom of England 6 11 8 37.5% 47.5 5.208 37.5% -0.741 1.5106
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 1.249 100.0% 0.495 1.0202
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 31.0 0.231 100.0% 0.299 1.1918
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 2.917 70.0% -0.206 1.9229
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.842 37.5% -1.293 0.8933
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 37.5% 53.38 10.741 81.25% -0.139 2.0031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 37.33 5.109 33.33% -0.296 1.5271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 48.0 7.344 50.0% -1.098 1.0177
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.552 100.0% 0.518 0.6065
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.5 2.85 100.0% 0.332 0.3513
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 40.0% 34.4 1.531 80.0% -0.048 0.1748
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 100.0% 43.0 4.447 100.0% 0.345 0.6312
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.372 80.0% 0.175 0.9428
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.357 50.0% -0.24 0.9199
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -4.119 20.0% -1.408 -0.2752
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -1.308 100.0% 0.073 -0.0466
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.83 100.0% 0.064 0.5063
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 56.0 10.674 100.0% 0.24 1.491
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 11.894 100.0% 0.051 2.097
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.244 33.33% -0.808 1.1265

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -4.665 100.0% 0.389 0.9697
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 47.11 7.752 77.78% -0.288 0.115
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 4.83 100.0% 0.064 0.4365
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 22 18.18% 41.32 2.814 68.18% -0.176 0.1883
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 25.799 100.0% 0.074 0.7085
Second Wave 0 15 46.67% 30.4 -1.181 80.0% -0.027 0.3972
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 1.266 100.0% 0.034 1.0756

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.848 60.0% -0.711 1.3599
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 30.67 -0.343 66.67% -0.296 1.6258
All Things Weaken 4 34.5 -1.055 50.0% -0.791 1.3625
Back Against the Wall 11 33.09 -0.321 81.82% 0.002 2.0982
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 34.4 0.412 80.0% 0.227 2.4526
Downward Spiral 15 26.13 -2.483 46.67% -1.291 0.7274
Erosion of Will 16 39.38 1.586 62.5% -0.722 1.4881
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 48.0 6.184 100.0% 0.106 0.7997
Memory Fades to Dust 8 34.0 0.322 75.0% -0.213 2.0024
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 31.5 -1.86 50.0% -0.666 1.3513
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 -2.401 57.14% -0.782 1.4309
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 46.0 4.332 100.0% 0.175 0.6052
Thriving Communities 2 22.5 -4.068 50.0% -0.534 1.5614
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.611 100.0% 0.195 2.4165
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 7.763 50.0% -0.308 1.7785
Untended Land Crumbles 2 63.0 11.32 100.0% 0.193 2.2891

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 189 39.89% 32.72 -0.852 80.42% 0.32 -0.7817
B 210 40.29% 33.72 0.392 77.62% -0.14 -1.3358
C 195 40.31% 33.15 -0.702 77.44% -0.286 -1.7146
D 198 38.54% 33.1 -0.444 79.8% -0.012 -1.2028
E 38 44.74% 38.5 1.253 78.95% -0.134 -1.4329
F 68 43.08% 34.71 -0.169 77.94% -0.142 -1.3967
G 61 38.33% 35.0 -0.278 77.05% -0.333 -1.5752
H 49 34.69% 37.98 1.447 85.71% 0.763 -0.4941

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 22.17 -2.256 100.0% 0.45 2.4986
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 26.32% 23.78 -3.584 78.26% -0.225 -0.0049
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 14.29% 39.11 1.503 100.0% 0.618 -0.0871
Start of Game Growth 19 6.25% 38.84 2.842 89.47% 0.136 -0.3161
Unlimited Undo 18 25.0% 35.89 0.252 94.44% 0.345 -0.0723
Using Tokens but Not Events 15 15.38% 24.2 -3.588 93.33% 0.43 0.3789

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23 22.33 13.04%
II 75 30.75 66.67%
III 110 34.25 92.73%
IV 44 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 34
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27
Lose: Adversary condition 21
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)