Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 33.5 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 80.0% 29.0 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 8 75.0% 43.75 5.054 75.0% 0.192 1.2377
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 71.43% 19.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 33.33% 29.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 40.0% 43.95 6.969 95.0% 0.408 0.3916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 63.64% 42.73 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9 66.67% 47.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 50.0% 44.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 0.0% 27.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 11.11% 34.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 26.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 75.0% 38.94 -8.2 62.5% -0.417 0.5812
The Kingdom of England 5 9 7 85.71% 36.57 1.802 28.57% -0.327 1.3002
The Kingdom of England 6 11 18 33.33% 50.94 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 32.4 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 15 66.67% 39.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 54.55% 37.73 10.844 45.45% 0.119 1.4742
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 18 38.89% 54.39 7.88 83.33% 0.097 1.5322
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 49.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 53.1 60.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 44.0 5.081 100.0% 0.083 0.5024
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 37.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 60.0 5.9 100.0% 0.087 0.8393
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 50.0% 38.5 -5.553 25.0% -0.334 0.9429
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 27.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 42.86% 31.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 100.0% 42.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 87.5% 26.75 -4.193 25.0% -0.237 0.6023
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 43.5 2.125 100.0% 0.098 0.4434
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 56.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 52.75 83.33% 0.261 -0.0067 0.034
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.159 0.9195
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 31 19.35% 41.29 61.29% -0.273
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 100.0% 0.132
Second Wave 0 24 45.83% 25.83 79.17% -0.202 -0.1363
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0% 0.083 0.6615

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 32.42 57.89% -0.228
Aid From Lesser Spirits 13 38.46 76.92% 0.097 0.0328 0.54
All Things Weaken 10 36.9 60.0% 0.289
Back Against the Wall 26 39.5 84.62% 0.526 0.589 0.021
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 27.5 50.0% -0.274
Downward Spiral 25 27.88 48.0% -0.094 0.1661 -0.231
Erosion of Will 23 35.52 69.57% 0.426 0.755 -0.237
Intensifying Exploitation 1 27.0 0.0% -0.327 -0.0291
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 35.25 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 21 30.33 66.67% -0.293
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 25.09 63.64% -0.101
Promising Farmlands 8 33.38 62.5% 0.264 0.7513 0.212
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 20.0 100.0% 0.277 0.7113
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 40.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 20.67 33.33% -0.159
Tipping Point 2 27.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 4 39.75 50.0% 0.089
Untended Land Crumbles 7 39.43 71.43% -0.018

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 313 40.79% 31.02 77.0% -0.508 0.3539 -0.476
B 339 41.57% 31.33 76.99% 0.238 1.0652 0.484
C 311 39.8% 31.96 75.24% 0.018 0.7058 -0.268
D 314 39.02% 31.66 78.66% 0.329 1.1575 -0.135
E 119 53.78% 35.38 79.83% 0.798 1.4565 0.575
F 144 49.65% 34.72 77.08% -0.034 0.7184 -0.154
G 137 50.0% 33.43 78.83% -0.337 0.4336 -0.338
H 112 45.54% 32.88 78.57% -0.488 0.2017 0.293

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 19.44 88.89%
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 31.03% 23.28 77.78% 0.127 0.4636
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 7.69% 40.93 100.0% 0.261 -0.3461 0.132
Start of Game Growth 30 11.11% 38.3 83.33% -0.301 -0.579 0.132
Unlimited Undo 37 25.71% 32.38 91.89% 0.207 0.2072 0.45
Using Tokens but Not Events 48 28.26% 27.75 91.67% -0.009 -0.0789 0.463

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 44 20.73 9.09%
II 136 31.02 66.91%
III 190 34.75 91.58%
IV 78 38.04 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 171
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 82
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 78
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 34
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 40
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)