Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 40.5 4.481 100.0% 0.299 1.177
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 26.0 -8.655 0.0% -0.544 0.7074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 53.33 8.734 100.0% 0.318 1.8397
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 23.0 -5.913 0.0% -0.839 1.2106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 22.33 -3.366 66.67% -0.303 -0.262
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.0 1.364 100.0% 0.621 0.5915
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 18.18% 46.36 7.413 100.0% 0.786 0.7909
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 62.5% 39.88 3.743 62.5% -0.388 -0.0989
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.33 7.581 83.33% 0.236 0.6036
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.611 0.0% -0.631 0.1983
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 66.5 15.636 100.0% 0.212 1.4538
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.593 100.0% 0.267 0.5996
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 12.5% 34.5 1.6 87.5% 0.21 0.714
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 21.0 -4.924 33.33% -0.839 0.1288
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 50.0% 19.0 -6.602 0.0% -1.303 0.2748
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 66.67% 42.11 4.446 66.67% -0.617 0.8807
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 33.25 -0.518 25.0% -0.87 1.1967
The Kingdom of England 6 11 9 44.44% 49.89 6.7 44.44% -0.6 1.6545
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 25.0% 29.25 1.076 100.0% 0.429 0.9434
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 31.0 0.662 100.0% 0.375 1.2713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 10 60.0% 37.3 2.969 70.0% -0.236 1.901
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 37.5% 34.88 1.84 37.5% -1.296 0.8888
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 17 35.29% 54.24 11.027 82.35% -0.163 1.9833
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 37.33 5.232 33.33% -0.285 1.5355
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 48.0 7.358 50.0% -1.081 1.0259
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 20.0% 27.4 -0.452 100.0% 0.49 0.5751
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.5 2.718 100.0% 0.346 0.3672
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 40.0% 34.4 1.644 80.0% -0.019 0.213
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 100.0% 43.0 5.027 100.0% 0.362 0.6477
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 100.0% 37.6 3.519 80.0% 0.203 0.9797
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 100.0% 33.5 2.362 50.0% -0.218 0.9388
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 100.0% 25.4 -4.105 20.0% -1.416 -0.2846
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -1.183 100.0% 0.087 -0.0191
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.354 100.0% 0.049 0.4808
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 56.0 10.762 100.0% 0.262 1.5108
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 64.0 12.441 100.0% 0.079 2.0981
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 42.67 5.427 33.33% -0.723 1.1823

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 22.5 -4.55 100.0% 0.397 0.9703
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 10.0% 47.1 7.865 80.0% -0.199 0.2007
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 47.0 4.354 100.0% 0.049 0.4888
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 23 17.39% 42.48 3.079 69.57% -0.162 0.2037
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 97.0 25.262 100.0% 0.07 0.7142
Second Wave 0 16 43.75% 30.0 -1.199 81.25% 0.004 0.4323
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 29.0 0.871 100.0% 0.019 1.056

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 10 31.8 -0.87 60.0% -0.758 1.3156
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 30.67 -0.373 66.67% -0.31 1.6093
All Things Weaken 7 35.0 0.152 42.86% -0.951 1.2077
Back Against the Wall 11 33.09 -0.205 81.82% -0.015 2.0786
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 33.0 -0.286 66.67% -0.058 2.1662
Downward Spiral 17 25.53 -2.739 47.06% -1.341 0.68
Erosion of Will 16 39.38 1.79 62.5% -0.632 1.577
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 48.0 5.597 100.0% 0.082 0.7742
Memory Fades to Dust 9 33.78 0.354 77.78% -0.146 2.0727
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 36.67 0.351 66.67% -0.626 1.3954
Promising Farmlands 7 30.29 -2.665 57.14% -0.886 1.3287
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 46.0 4.295 100.0% 0.172 0.5832
Thriving Communities 2 22.5 -4.003 50.0% -0.519 1.574
Tipping Point 2 27.5 -2.754 100.0% 0.166 2.3911
Unnatural Proliferation 2 50.0 7.771 50.0% -0.303 1.7868
Untended Land Crumbles 3 59.67 9.321 100.0% 0.22 2.326

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 201 39.38% 32.27 -0.876 80.6% 0.336 -0.7761
B 228 41.44% 33.37 0.23 77.19% -0.192 -1.4005
C 210 40.69% 32.7 -0.871 77.14% -0.319 -1.7579
D 211 38.42% 32.68 -0.444 80.09% 0.009 -1.1927
E 39 46.15% 38.87 1.272 79.49% -0.091 -1.4031
F 73 45.71% 34.79 -0.222 75.34% -0.269 -1.5343
G 67 40.91% 35.94 0.045 77.61% -0.166 -1.423
H 55 40.0% 37.82 1.51 81.82% 0.726 -0.5393

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 19.88 -3.067 87.5% -0.009 2.0453
Not Using Events or Tokens 30 29.17% 22.8 -3.818 76.67% -0.286 -0.0685
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 14.29% 39.11 1.484 100.0% 0.582 -0.1112
Start of Game Growth 19 6.25% 38.84 2.884 89.47% 0.124 -0.3391
Unlimited Undo 20 27.78% 35.75 0.161 95.0% 0.489 0.068
Using Tokens but Not Events 18 12.5% 24.11 -3.419 94.44% 0.629 0.5765

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24 22.34 12.5%
II 82 30.81 65.85%
III 118 34.31 92.37%
IV 47 37.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 64
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 37
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 23
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)