Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 32 31.25% 17.53 28.13% -0.217 -0.7754 -0.832
Blitz 0 22 40.91% 26.45 54.55% 0.167 0.5905 0.749
Dahan Insurrection 4 850 10.0% 23.12 21.29% -0.094 -0.5762 -0.955
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 26.08 50.0% 0.449
Elemental Invocation 1 34 20.59% 20.41 47.06% -0.173
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1071 2.8% 46.65 57.52% 0.501 -0.1551 0.667
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 27.27% 20.14 50.0% -0.219 0.343 -0.099
Rituals of Terror 3 20 35.0% 33.9 45.0% 0.062
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 27 44.44% 23.3 22.22% -0.797
Second Wave 0 151 34.69% 23.41 64.9% 0.238 0.3326 -0.375
Varied Terrains 2 25 44.0% 24.76 40.0% -0.026 0.8419 -0.542
Ward the Shores 2 34 26.47% 19.21 35.29% -0.263 0.5911 -0.154

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 57 41.42 66.67% -0.346 -0.2746 0.718
Aid From Lesser Spirits 52 38.83 55.77% 0.155
All Things Weaken 72 34.79 59.72% 0.333
Attenuated Essence 28 34.93 46.43% -0.092 -0.0399 0.309
Back Against the Wall 57 37.63 45.61% 0.205 0.1896 0.303
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 30 41.73 56.67% 0.066 0.2494 0.42
Burn Brightest Before the End 39 37.62 46.15% -0.091 -0.0046 0.52
Disintegrating Ecosystem 59 39.86 55.93% 0.875 1.166 0.38
Downward Spiral 60 35.82 63.33% -0.495 -0.3894 -0.2
Erosion of Will 67 38.22 53.73% -0.234 -0.0679 0.299
Intensifying Exploitation 40 43.7 60.0% -0.181 0.0075 1.416
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 30 42.3 80.0% 0.797 0.3691 0.863
Memory Fades to Dust 52 41.13 63.46% 0.095 0.3294 0.632
Power Corrodes the Spirit 67 31.57 49.25% 0.592 0.6876 -0.333
Promising Farmlands 61 32.49 47.54% 0.403 0.7676 0.254
Shattered Fragments of Power 34 39.12 50.0% 0.629 0.6946 1.091
Slow Dissolution of Will 29 45.1 65.52% 0.163 0.626 0.773
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 36.31 73.08% 0.04
The Border of Life and Death 10 28.1 30.0% 0.378
Thriving Communities 63 35.56 69.84% 0.789 1.0149 0.91
Thriving Crops 9 37.56 55.56% 0.336 0.1114 0.425
Unnatural Proliferation 77 42.48 72.73% 0.599 0.7205 1.13
Untended Land Crumbles 75 39.87 66.67% 0.224 0.4567 0.883

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 4715 22.98% 31.68 52.9% -0.002 0.8114 -0.013
Northeast 4705 22.97% 31.67 52.82% -0.002 0.6654 -0.013
Northwest 4706 22.96% 31.64 52.8% -0.002 0.8027 -0.013
Southeast 4705 22.95% 31.67 52.79% -0.002 0.7035 -0.013
Southwest 4695 22.89% 31.65 52.74% -0.002 1.3878 -0.013
West 4714 22.99% 31.68 52.89% -0.002 0.7915 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 38 0.0% 22.84 44.74% 0.311
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 10.0% 28.4 40.0% -0.162
Skip Initial Invader Actions 426 10.3% 40.86 56.57% -0.675 -1.4055 -0.866
Start of Game Growth 886 10.34% 50.29 64.22% 0.169 -0.277 1.601
Unlimited Undo 599 10.36% 39.7 52.59% -0.599 -0.6327 -0.285
Using Tokens but Not Events 1094 7.2% 22.11 35.65% 0.283 0.1208 -0.374

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1984 14.25 5.9%
II 1272 30.3 76.57%
III 1103 34.84 94.56%
IV 393 38.61 98.98%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 117
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 976
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 849
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 388
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1630
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 275
Lose: Scenario condition 142
Win: Scenario condition 193
Lose: Blight pool ran out 163
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)