Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 33 30.3% 17.79 30.3% -0.886
Blitz 0 23 39.13% 25.3 52.17% -0.267 -0.05 0.742
Dahan Insurrection 4 911 10.32% 24.08 22.5% -0.488 -0.7408 -0.808
Despicable Theft 2 13 30.77% 24.08 46.15% -0.156 0.4307 0.342
Elemental Invocation 1 41 19.51% 20.9 41.46% -0.906 -0.167 -0.798
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1160 3.1% 47.12 58.1% 0.959 0.3971 0.685
Powers Long Forgotten 1 29 24.14% 17.55 41.38% -0.359 0.4011 -0.094
Rituals of Terror 3 21 33.33% 39.86 47.62% 0.228 0.3477 0.394
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 29 41.38% 23.76 24.14% -0.202 0.7054 -0.75
Second Wave 0 164 33.75% 22.63 62.2% -0.661 -0.5221 -0.368
Varied Terrains 2 27 44.44% 27.67 44.44% 0.444 1.2202 -0.602
Ward the Shores 2 35 25.71% 20.17 37.14% 0.102 1.1765 -0.065

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 64 40.05 64.06% -0.033 0.2178 0.536
Aid From Lesser Spirits 61 40.75 57.38% 1.112 1.0546 0.631
All Things Weaken 79 34.63 56.96% -0.108 0.2267 0.424
Attenuated Essence 35 38.14 45.71% 0.599 0.6322 0.323
Back Against the Wall 61 37.67 45.9% 0.264 0.2992 0.259
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 37 43.0 59.46% 0.074 0.2915 0.546
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 38.17 50.0% 0.762 0.7725 0.59
Disintegrating Ecosystem 68 38.54 54.41% 0.55 0.8947 0.444
Downward Spiral 65 35.69 64.62% 1.18 1.2972 -0.028
Erosion of Will 71 37.76 54.93% 0.654 0.9287 0.242
Intensifying Exploitation 47 45.43 59.57% 0.231 0.4423 1.408
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 41.59 76.92% 0.485 -0.0877 1.13
Memory Fades to Dust 59 39.68 61.02% -0.298 -0.0455 0.63
Power Corrodes the Spirit 72 30.01 47.22% -1.099 -0.8946 -0.586
Promising Farmlands 67 34.99 50.75% 0.651 0.905 0.548
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 37.17 47.22% 0.866
Slow Dissolution of Will 35 43.17 60.0% -0.288 0.0937 0.6
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 34.96 70.37% -0.672 -1.3455 0.101
The Border of Life and Death 12 30.92 33.33% -0.338 -0.9388 0.412
Thriving Communities 70 34.53 67.14% -0.139 0.1425 0.737
Thriving Crops 14 34.14 57.14% 0.289 0.1483 0.438
Unnatural Proliferation 85 41.99 70.59% 0.082 0.2855 1.198
Untended Land Crumbles 83 39.69 65.06% 0.191 0.3815 0.793

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 5211 23.52% 31.58 52.25% -0.015 0.8596 -0.014
Northeast 5201 23.5% 31.57 52.18% -0.015 0.7368 -0.014
Northwest 5202 23.5% 31.55 52.17% -0.015 0.8768 -0.014
Southeast 5201 23.48% 31.57 52.16% -0.015 0.8236 -0.014
Southwest 5191 23.43% 31.55 52.11% -0.015 1.2893 -0.014
West 5210 23.52% 31.59 52.25% -0.015 0.9345 -0.014

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 40 0.0% 22.52 45.0% -0.143 0.5855 0.283
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 9.09% 25.82 36.36% -0.109 0.2364 -0.182
Skip Initial Invader Actions 483 9.47% 39.67 55.28% 0.129 -0.4736 -1.014
Start of Game Growth 1032 9.55% 49.07 63.28% 0.777 0.2734 1.697
Unlimited Undo 683 10.57% 39.85 52.86% -0.046 -0.1533 -0.025
Using Tokens but Not Events 1163 7.3% 22.3 35.86% -0.284 -0.3139 -0.437

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2218 13.42 5.91%
II 1394 30.13 76.04%
III 1213 34.83 94.23%
IV 423 38.67 98.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 131
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1064
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 922
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 417
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1833
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 304
Lose: Scenario condition 150
Win: Scenario condition 218
Lose: Blight pool ran out 188
Lose: Spirit destroyed 16

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)