Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 24 37.5% 20.63 29.17% -0.078 -0.3341 -0.276
Blitz 0 7 28.57% 35.0 71.43% -0.355 -0.1573 0.565
Dahan Insurrection 4 232 12.93% 39.8 37.5% -0.851 -1.293 -1.043
Despicable Theft 2 6 33.33% 34.17 83.33% 0.358 1.1699 0.452
Elemental Invocation 1 17 17.65% 25.94 58.82% -0.373 0.3296
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 459 3.49% 55.6 70.15% 0.31 -0.3341 1.236
Powers Long Forgotten 1 13 30.77% 26.31 61.54% -0.488 0.1471
Rituals of Terror 3 11 27.27% 53.82 63.64% 0.011 0.1116 -0.056
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 75.0% 46.75 25.0% -0.471
Second Wave 0 95 42.11% 27.06 77.89% 0.213 0.2792
Varied Terrains 2 11 63.64% 33.45 45.45% 0.208 0.8312 -0.125
Ward the Shores 2 14 42.86% 32.57 50.0% -0.09 0.9942 -0.01

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 35 46.2 71.43% -0.231 0.011 0.697
Aid From Lesser Spirits 31 42.1 67.74% 0.426 0.3484 0.081
All Things Weaken 45 39.0 68.89% 0.278 0.6704 -0.014
Attenuated Essence 8 25.88 37.5% -0.219 -0.1118 -0.706
Back Against the Wall 37 39.11 48.65% 0.086 0.1441 0.163
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 46.89 66.67% 0.286 0.488 -0.255
Burn Brightest Before the End 10 37.0 40.0% 0.011 0.2209 -0.118
Disintegrating Ecosystem 28 40.36 57.14% 0.61 1.0335 0.195
Downward Spiral 37 42.35 78.38% -0.054 0.1811 0.157
Erosion of Will 36 36.28 55.56% 0.217 0.526 -0.055
Intensifying Exploitation 8 59.38 87.5% 0.496 0.7832 0.721
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 41.62 85.71% 0.275 -0.2188 0.609
Memory Fades to Dust 24 44.67 75.0% -0.278 0.0587 0.44
Power Corrodes the Spirit 44 34.16 54.55% -0.142 0.078 -0.257
Promising Farmlands 33 38.33 51.52% 0.716 1.1696 -0.335
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 9.33 0.0% -0.534 -0.4834 -0.04
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 39.0 62.5% -0.265 0.1345 -0.167
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 40.43 80.95% 0.253 -0.4575 -0.001
Thriving Communities 27 29.22 66.67% -0.356 0.0071 -0.894
Thriving Crops 4 46.25 75.0% 0.509 0.3109 -0.372
Unnatural Proliferation 42 44.52 83.33% 1.448 1.6632 0.942
Untended Land Crumbles 37 41.86 72.97% 0.679 0.9605 0.219

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 2054 25.93% 39.26 68.99% -0.014 0.5247 -0.011
Northeast 2046 25.94% 39.29 68.87% -0.014 0.6207 -0.011
Northwest 2046 25.89% 39.24 68.87% -0.014 0.795 -0.011
Southeast 2045 25.9% 39.29 68.85% -0.014 0.6917 -0.011
Southwest 2038 25.84% 39.32 68.79% -0.014 0.9757 -0.011
West 2053 25.94% 39.27 68.97% -0.014 0.8896 -0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14 0.0% 18.5 28.57%
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 42.8 40.0% -0.027 0.3519 -0.157
Skip Initial Invader Actions 173 10.43% 44.38 62.43% 0.17 -0.4472 -0.828
Start of Game Growth 389 12.73% 52.67 65.81% -0.411 -0.7593 -0.495
Unlimited Undo 198 9.38% 43.48 67.17% 0.18 0.173 0.041
Using Tokens but Not Events 388 9.89% 32.1 55.41% -0.241 -0.2513 -0.937

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 578 20.4 11.76%
II 660 31.01 84.09%
III 617 34.76 95.62%
IV 236 38.07 98.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 68
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 559
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 493
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 232
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 312
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 158
Lose: Scenario condition 77
Win: Scenario condition 94
Lose: Blight pool ran out 89
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)