Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 42.86% 22.93 28.57%
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 42.75 100.0% 0.2 0.6429 0.309
Dahan Insurrection 4 102 22.55% 61.68 54.9% -0.228 -0.1309 -0.571
Despicable Theft 2 4 25.0% 43.5 100.0% 0.152 0.6504 0.28
Elemental Invocation 1 12 16.67% 30.67 75.0% 0.06 0.6055
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 303 3.63% 63.42 80.86% 0.309 0.5406 0.886
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 28.5 70.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 22.22% 58.89 66.67% -0.065
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 44.0 0.0% -0.592 -0.3659 -0.325
Second Wave 0 78 44.87% 28.5 82.05% -0.484 0.2088
Varied Terrains 2 5 80.0% 40.2 40.0% -0.362 0.4245 -0.06
Ward the Shores 2 7 28.57% 41.14 57.14% 0.353 1.2343 0.232

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 28 44.07 71.43% -1.077 0.8938 0.462
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 40.73 60.0% -1.088 0.6897 0.219
All Things Weaken 27 43.89 81.48% 0.362 2.4105 0.833
Back Against the Wall 26 40.0 42.31% -0.772 1.1673 0.352
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 34.23 45.45% 0.211 2.3386 -0.452
Downward Spiral 30 42.37 80.0% -0.065 1.8962 -0.036
Erosion of Will 25 34.08 52.0% -0.943 1.1387 -0.199
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 39.53 88.24% -0.044 0.4581 0.377
Memory Fades to Dust 22 44.68 81.82% 0.668 2.8087 0.541
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 35.27 59.46% 0.308 2.2883 -0.442
Promising Farmlands 25 36.16 44.0% -0.058 1.9637 -0.838
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 36.93 80.0% 0.33 0.8267 -0.663
Thriving Communities 20 30.0 75.0% -0.921 1.1381 -0.607
Unnatural Proliferation 31 38.68 80.65% 0.433 2.3895 0.698
Untended Land Crumbles 27 42.11 74.07% 0.92 2.9534 0.187

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 1323 26.42% 44.37 80.88% 0.016 0.6773 -0.012
Northeast 1315 26.43% 44.45 80.76% 0.016 0.6756 -0.012
Northwest 1315 26.36% 44.37 80.76% 0.016 0.6262 -0.012
Southeast 1314 26.38% 44.44 80.75% 0.016 0.5469 -0.012
Southwest 1307 26.29% 44.52 80.72% 0.016 0.9842 -0.012
West 1322 26.44% 44.39 80.86% 0.016 0.8214 -0.012

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 43.17 66.67%
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 0.0% 59.5 50.0% -0.487 -0.2606 -0.217
Skip Initial Invader Actions 78 4.17% 57.18 80.77% -0.003 -0.9831 -0.353
Start of Game Growth 235 11.79% 60.54 76.17% -0.296 -0.7527 -0.062
Unlimited Undo 85 3.8% 54.49 84.71% 0.278 -0.274 -1.097
Using Tokens but Not Events 136 16.92% 45.11 89.71% 0.487 0.6423 0.408

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 218 22.65 21.1%
II 507 31.08 86.59%
III 448 34.66 95.76%
IV 187 37.91 98.93%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 46
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 408
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 400
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 185
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 127
Lose: Scenario condition 54
Win: Scenario condition 60
Lose: Blight pool ran out 73
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)