Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 26 34.62% 20.42 30.77% 0.132 -0.0081 -0.268
Blitz 0 15 53.33% 28.13 53.33% -0.053 0.0577 0.731
Dahan Insurrection 4 450 10.0% 26.72 25.11% -0.729 -0.9644 -0.92
Despicable Theft 2 10 40.0% 24.7 50.0% -0.185 0.458 0.398
Elemental Invocation 1 29 24.14% 20.21 44.83% -0.473 0.3289 -0.031
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 631 3.01% 50.1 62.76% 0.612 -0.1617 0.96
Powers Long Forgotten 1 14 28.57% 24.43 57.14% -0.221 0.5513
Rituals of Terror 3 13 30.77% 52.15 69.23% 0.347
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 13 38.46% 26.46 23.08% -0.718 0.3391 -0.237
Second Wave 0 109 38.53% 26.06 72.48% -0.427 -0.3469 -0.291
Varied Terrains 2 20 55.0% 25.25 35.0% -0.682 0.0098 -0.537
Ward the Shores 2 21 38.1% 24.24 38.1% -0.485 0.3783 -0.163

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 44.21 69.77% 0.757 0.9169 1.048
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36 40.03 61.11% -0.132 -0.2184 0.184
All Things Weaken 52 36.35 63.46% -0.002 0.3399 0.136
Attenuated Essence 19 36.11 52.63% 0.898 0.9718 -0.022
Back Against the Wall 40 39.48 47.5% -0.131 -0.0559 0.496
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 48.08 69.23% 0.4 0.5909 0.247
Burn Brightest Before the End 21 31.38 42.86% 0.143 0.2663 0.016
Disintegrating Ecosystem 35 40.57 54.29% -0.254 0.1188 0.126
Downward Spiral 44 39.66 72.73% 0.259 0.3958 -0.087
Erosion of Will 47 36.04 55.32% 0.341 0.6354 -0.229
Intensifying Exploitation 17 43.41 70.59% 0.224 0.4625 0.878
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25 44.24 84.0% -0.13 -0.6621 0.733
Memory Fades to Dust 35 41.77 68.57% 0.022 0.3031 0.35
Power Corrodes the Spirit 51 32.18 50.98% -0.344 -0.1912 -0.264
Promising Farmlands 41 34.56 51.22% 0.1 0.4462 0.087
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 27.13 37.5% -0.086 0.109 0.397
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 36.87 60.0% 0.032 0.4834 -0.257
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 36.91 73.91% -0.553 -1.294 -0.042
The Border of Life and Death 5 16.2 0.0% -0.722 -1.1553
Thriving Communities 41 33.61 65.85% 0.694 0.993 0.325
Thriving Crops 5 40.8 60.0% -0.141 -0.2435 -0.162
Unnatural Proliferation 57 44.11 78.95% 1.233 1.3787 1.22
Untended Land Crumbles 47 39.36 70.21% 0.147 0.4468 0.366

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 2851 24.75% 34.72 59.84% -0.019 0.7505 -0.013
Northeast 2843 24.75% 34.73 59.73% -0.019 0.7687 -0.013
Northwest 2843 24.72% 34.69 59.73% -0.019 0.9649 -0.013
Southeast 2841 24.7% 34.71 59.7% -0.019 0.8558 -0.013
Southwest 2834 24.65% 34.72 59.63% -0.019 1.189 -0.013
West 2850 24.76% 34.72 59.82% -0.019 0.9156 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 17.68 31.58% -0.06 0.5691
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 42.8 40.0% -0.12
Skip Initial Invader Actions 263 10.89% 42.63 59.32% -0.225 -0.8597 -0.775
Start of Game Growth 550 11.99% 50.8 64.73% 0.686 0.2965 0.813
Unlimited Undo 348 10.56% 39.43 56.61% 0.988 1.0319 -0.595
Using Tokens but Not Events 635 7.63% 25.89 42.99% -0.333 -0.3597 -0.565

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1010 17.67 7.72%
II 847 30.7 78.98%
III 743 34.75 94.62%
IV 288 38.22 98.96%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 78
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 663
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 589
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 284
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 735
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 200
Lose: Scenario condition 92
Win: Scenario condition 121
Lose: Blight pool ran out 113
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)