Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 42.86% 22.93 28.57% -0.906 -0.466
Blitz 0 3 33.33% 31.67 100.0% 0.093 0.3487
Dahan Insurrection 4 86 25.58% 58.93 50.0% -0.791 -0.489 -0.523
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 33.33 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 11 18.18% 29.64 72.73% 0.331 0.9427
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 265 3.02% 63.2 80.75% 0.269 0.463 1.025
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 28.5 70.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 22.22% 58.89 66.67% 0.152 -0.6845 0.019
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0% -0.263
Second Wave 0 73 42.47% 28.77 83.56% 0.144 0.7166
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 21.0 0.0% -0.805 -0.0593 -0.186
Ward the Shores 2 5 40.0% 30.8 40.0% -0.534 0.5209

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 46.38 79.17% 0.173 2.082 0.713
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 40.73 60.0% -1.134 0.5505 0.257
All Things Weaken 22 41.18 81.82% 0.432 2.4322 0.707
Back Against the Wall 23 40.13 43.48% -0.13 1.8179 0.339
Disintegrating Ecosystem 18 31.56 38.89% -0.946 1.1197 -0.494
Downward Spiral 27 40.15 77.78% -0.056 1.9064 -0.088
Erosion of Will 23 34.83 52.17% -0.458 1.6497 -0.176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 41.33 86.67% -0.03 0.5862 0.528
Memory Fades to Dust 19 39.79 78.95% 0.487 2.5441 0.124
Power Corrodes the Spirit 29 30.21 51.72% -0.901 1.0782 -0.919
Promising Farmlands 24 34.88 41.67% -0.428 1.6745 -0.797
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 37.79 78.57% -0.629 -0.2996 -0.546
Thriving Communities 17 31.71 82.35% 0.024 2.0732 -0.508
Unnatural Proliferation 24 33.58 75.0% -0.578 1.366 0.184
Untended Land Crumbles 24 40.33 70.83% 0.667 2.6935 0.125

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 1181 25.45% 43.38 80.86% 0.018 0.6973 -0.011
Northeast 1173 25.45% 43.46 80.73% 0.018 0.5877 -0.011
Northwest 1173 25.36% 43.37 80.73% 0.018 0.8597 -0.011
Southeast 1172 25.39% 43.45 80.72% 0.018 0.5443 -0.011
Southwest 1165 25.28% 43.53 80.69% 0.018 0.9591 -0.011
West 1180 25.47% 43.39 80.85% 0.018 1.018 -0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 43.17 66.67%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0% 0.058 0.2988
Skip Initial Invader Actions 73 4.48% 57.26 80.82% -0.373 -0.7423 -0.259
Start of Game Growth 207 11.94% 60.35 76.81% -0.032 -0.6543 -0.024
Unlimited Undo 80 4.05% 54.4 85.0% 0.471 -0.1598 -1.026
Using Tokens but Not Events 126 17.5% 42.66 89.68% -0.287 -0.2433 0.279

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 197 22.62 20.81%
II 452 31.05 86.73%
III 395 34.62 95.95%
IV 174 37.86 98.85%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 41
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 362
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 364
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 172
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 118
Lose: Scenario condition 48
Win: Scenario condition 45
Lose: Blight pool ran out 64
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)