Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 23.08% 42.54 -1.232 92.31% 0.154 0.7048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10 20.0% 45.4 0.524 100.0% 0.333 1.2106
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 8 71.43% 48.88 87.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 47.5 -1.896 50.0% -0.384 1.1466
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 0.0% 69.0 4.258 83.33% -0.215 1.3728
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 45.33 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 25.0% 65.5 2.575 62.5% -0.808 1.4527
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 24 20.83% 34.17 -1.549 91.67% 0.191 0.4351
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 28 25.0% 41.46 2.242 89.29% 0.094 -0.0326
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 61 10.0% 62.82 7.142 80.33% 0.126 0.2422
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 36.36% 47.64 5.473 72.73% 0.035 0.4093
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 0.0% 69.5 13.64 100.0% 0.323 0.7891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 24.0% 64.04 6.387 80.0% -0.612 0.3738
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 56.0 11.065 60.0% 0.077 1.6523
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 17.65% 38.12 0.108 70.59% 0.281 0.7971
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16 31.25% 40.5 -0.168 62.5% -0.202 0.4074
The Kingdom of England 2 4 8 0.0% 53.38 -6.334 75.0% -0.762 0.3648
The Kingdom of England 3 6 12 41.67% 35.83 16.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 40.0% 48.7 1.348 50.0% -1.025 0.5537
The Kingdom of England 5 9 12 8.33% 79.08 7.242 91.67% -0.318 1.4191
The Kingdom of England 6 11 80 15.0% 70.5 9.512 70.0% -1.352 0.9468
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 20.0% 41.4 -4.194 80.0% 0.043 0.9452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 33.33% 41.3 -1.841 80.0% -0.302 0.5883
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36 29.41% 40.67 -2.085 47.22% -1.196 1.2061
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19 33.33% 29.05 -3.614 5.26% -1.961 0.4227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 0.0% 31.83 -3.605 0.0% -0.287 2.189
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 16.67% 53.67 14.306 50.0% 0.095 2.1732
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 35 40.0% 62.06 7.837 51.43% -1.137 1.2306
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 42.86% 35.0 -4.383 85.71% 0.177 0.0533
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 0.0% 48.75 0.863 100.0% 0.247 1.092
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 43.67 1.907 100.0% 0.36 1.1889
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 0.0% 52.0 -0.236 66.67% -0.182 0.688
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 57.14% 62.14 8.546 100.0% 0.339 1.7699
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 75.0% 50.92 5.024 25.0% -1.387 0.3116
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 15 7.14% 39.4 -0.689 100.0% 0.194 0.3604
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 33.33% 33.89 -7.393 77.78% -1.019 -1.2424
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 33.33% 47.3 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 83.33% 50.67 2.768 83.33% 0.181 0.4908
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 100.0% 40.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 65 52.31% 59.05 5.391 84.62% -0.088 1.104
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 17 17.65% 37.47 -2.449 94.12% -0.09 -0.1462
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 56.4 10.315 100.0% 0.167 0.8782
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 38.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 12.5% 64.63 11.579 75.0% 0.533 1.9183
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 50.0% 77.63 8.183 37.5% -0.776 1.2434

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 50.0% 23.5 25.0% -0.848 -1.0502
Blitz 0 2 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 43 20.93% 59.63 55.81% -0.755 -0.3416 -0.176
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 33.33 100.0% 0.133 0.5786
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 29.0 70.0% -0.305 0.1807
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 191 2.09% 62.63 82.72% -0.076 0.2293 1.1
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 28.5 70.0% 0.057 0.2388
Rituals of Terror 3 8 25.0% 59.63 62.5% -0.285 -0.1636 -0.145
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 55.0 0.0% -0.389 0.0256 -0.257
Second Wave 0 65 41.54% 27.82 83.08% -0.031 0.535
Varied Terrains 2 1 100.0% 33.0 0.0% -0.18 0.3455 -0.268
Ward the Shores 2 4 25.0% 33.0 50.0% -0.581 0.5806

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 42.55 80.0% -0.674 1.2293 0.674
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 45.0 70.0% -0.242 1.4882 0.278
All Things Weaken 17 38.24 76.47% -0.01 1.9755 0.343
Back Against the Wall 13 31.08 38.46% -0.581 1.2359 -0.66
Disintegrating Ecosystem 16 33.06 43.75% -0.889 1.1616 -0.199
Downward Spiral 23 39.57 78.26% -0.414 1.5791 0.279
Erosion of Will 19 36.89 52.63% -0.497 1.5863 -0.106
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 41.77 92.31% 0.153 0.5944 0.718
Memory Fades to Dust 17 37.24 76.47% 0.295 2.3796 0.095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 29.3 56.52% -1.261 0.6772 -0.485
Promising Farmlands 20 33.15 45.0% -0.317 1.7293 -0.91
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 35.25 83.33% -0.096 0.3291 -0.277
Thriving Communities 13 31.92 84.62% 0.266 2.2496 -0.498
Unnatural Proliferation 19 30.47 78.95% -0.15 1.8147 -0.141
Untended Land Crumbles 21 34.76 66.67% -0.38 1.6136 -0.602

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 936 25.48% 41.77 82.91% 0.018 0.7868 -0.011
Northeast 928 25.49% 41.86 82.76% 0.018 0.878 -0.011
Northwest 928 25.38% 41.74 82.76% 0.018 1.0947 -0.011
Southeast 927 25.41% 41.85 82.74% 0.018 0.7243 -0.011
Southwest 920 25.27% 41.93 82.72% 0.018 1.1433 -0.011
West 935 25.51% 41.79 82.89% 0.018 0.972 -0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 43.17 66.67%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 51 0.0% 54.88 88.24% 0.889 0.7467 0.586
Start of Game Growth 145 10.79% 58.41 77.93% -0.47 -1.2302 -0.105
Unlimited Undo 61 1.82% 51.52 86.89% 0.116 -0.4881 -0.96
Using Tokens but Not Events 107 16.83% 40.24 91.59% 0.252 0.0956 0.492

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 144 22.56 19.44%
II 363 30.98 89.26%
III 326 34.53 96.32%
IV 140 37.77 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 305
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 307
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 139
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 80
Lose: Scenario condition 33
Win: Scenario condition 26
Lose: Blight pool ran out 53
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)