Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 37 32.43% 18.68 32.43%
Blitz 0 35 34.29% 21.71 42.86% -0.207 0.2245 -0.241
Dahan Insurrection 4 1060 10.57% 25.03 23.96% -0.045 -0.071 -0.163
Despicable Theft 2 14 28.57% 22.36 42.86% -0.192
Elemental Invocation 1 53 16.98% 19.08 39.62% 0.245 0.6924 -0.08
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1388 3.1% 48.32 58.5% 0.325 -0.275 0.475
Powers Long Forgotten 1 34 20.59% 17.0 38.24% 0.333 0.9413
Rituals of Terror 3 24 29.17% 38.71 50.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 50 40.0% 23.22 26.0% -0.144 0.5947 -0.323
Second Wave 0 193 35.45% 22.51 59.07% 0.516 0.6228 0.651
Varied Terrains 2 35 37.14% 27.74 45.71% -0.516
Ward the Shores 2 50 22.0% 15.46 28.0% 0.071 0.7533 -0.608

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 78 40.23 64.1% 0.348 0.6589 0.515
Aid From Lesser Spirits 69 41.51 57.97% 0.015
All Things Weaken 98 33.99 54.08% -0.244 0.2299 -0.031
Attenuated Essence 51 35.51 39.22% -0.532 -0.3859 -0.441
Back Against the Wall 80 35.7 46.25% 0.385 0.5143 -0.554
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 42.63 60.42% 0.076 0.3957 0.709
Burn Brightest Before the End 52 38.29 50.0% 0.149
Disintegrating Ecosystem 83 38.34 54.22% 0.469
Downward Spiral 77 36.71 70.13% 0.571 0.7647 0.635
Erosion of Will 84 35.92 50.0% -0.726
Intensifying Exploitation 58 41.98 55.17% -0.241 0.1114 -0.237
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 47 42.19 78.72% 0.763
Memory Fades to Dust 67 37.9 59.7% -0.237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 82 30.67 48.78% -0.032
Promising Farmlands 78 34.53 48.72% 0.433 0.8808 -0.516
Shattered Fragments of Power 47 35.98 46.81% 0.375 0.3742 -0.261
Slow Dissolution of Will 47 43.36 55.32% -0.303 0.1084 0.202
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 33.77 66.67% 0.346 -0.2125 0.813
The Border of Life and Death 13 28.54 30.77%
Thriving Communities 82 36.06 67.07% 0.759 1.0365 0.691
Thriving Crops 18 35.56 55.56% -0.055
Unnatural Proliferation 98 40.49 68.37% -0.36 -0.1548 -0.038
Untended Land Crumbles 93 39.48 65.59% 0.394

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 6341 23.21% 31.6 51.73% -0.013 0.7328 -0.013
Northeast 6331 23.2% 31.59 51.67% -0.013 0.8806 -0.013
Northwest 6332 23.19% 31.57 51.66% -0.013 0.7306 -0.013
Southeast 6331 23.18% 31.59 51.65% -0.013 0.996 -0.013
Southwest 6321 23.14% 31.57 51.61% -0.013 1.144 -0.013
West 6340 23.21% 31.6 51.72% -0.013 0.9699 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 46 0.0% 20.59 41.3%
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 16.67% 26.0 41.67%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 727 8.38% 39.46 52.27% -0.395 -1.1995 -0.641
Start of Game Growth 1401 9.53% 47.92 61.03% -0.23 -0.7963 0.873
Unlimited Undo 1003 11.48% 40.18 50.95% -0.133 -0.1058 -0.037
Using Tokens but Not Events 1407 6.61% 24.04 37.31% -0.816 -0.8432 -1.264

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2714 12.25 6.26%
II 1705 29.91 74.72%
III 1445 34.94 93.91%
IV 514 38.9 98.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 170
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1259
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1107
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 505
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2267
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 390
Lose: Scenario condition 165
Win: Scenario condition 268
Lose: Blight pool ran out 222
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)