Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 36 33.33% 19.19 33.33%
Blitz 0 33 36.36% 22.27 45.45% -0.202 0.041 -0.177
Dahan Insurrection 4 1011 10.98% 24.87 23.54% -0.596 -0.5823 -0.538
Despicable Theft 2 14 28.57% 22.36 42.86% -0.442 0.3236 -0.258
Elemental Invocation 1 52 17.31% 18.71 38.46% -0.325 0.4282 -0.098
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1347 3.19% 48.07 58.5% 0.421 -0.1751 0.492
Powers Long Forgotten 1 33 21.21% 15.42 36.36%
Rituals of Terror 3 24 29.17% 38.71 50.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 37 40.54% 23.84 27.03% -0.289 0.3986 -0.152
Second Wave 0 189 35.68% 22.67 59.26% -0.661 -0.6653 0.43
Varied Terrains 2 35 37.14% 27.74 45.71% -0.396
Ward the Shores 2 45 20.0% 15.69 28.89% -0.372 0.4973 -0.242

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 77 39.79 63.64% -0.287 -0.1386 0.232
Aid From Lesser Spirits 69 41.51 57.97% -0.162 -0.2751 0.957
All Things Weaken 94 33.28 54.26% 0.402 0.7765 -0.393
Attenuated Essence 48 35.94 39.58% -0.116 0.0099 0.025
Back Against the Wall 76 35.26 44.74% 0.098 0.1392 -0.682
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 45 44.36 62.22% 0.232
Burn Brightest Before the End 51 38.47 50.98% -0.119 -0.0746 0.531
Disintegrating Ecosystem 83 38.34 54.22% -0.489 0.0092 0.409
Downward Spiral 75 36.53 69.33% 0.776 1.0262 0.68
Erosion of Will 82 36.79 51.22% -0.214 0.0437 -0.88
Intensifying Exploitation 56 42.96 57.14% -0.513 -0.294 -0.138
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 47 42.19 78.72% 0.921
Memory Fades to Dust 66 38.18 59.09% -0.322 -0.1163 -0.169
Power Corrodes the Spirit 82 30.67 48.78% 0.748 0.9464 -0.575
Promising Farmlands 76 34.72 48.68% -0.347 0.0089 0.036
Shattered Fragments of Power 46 35.3 45.65% 0.121 0.3384 -0.462
Slow Dissolution of Will 46 43.8 56.52% 0.279 0.7084 -0.077
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 33.71 67.86%
The Border of Life and Death 13 28.54 30.77% -0.309 -0.6288 -0.057
Thriving Communities 79 35.39 65.82% -0.484 -0.1649 0.539
Thriving Crops 17 33.24 52.94% 0.263 0.1446 -0.239
Unnatural Proliferation 96 40.43 68.75% -0.07 0.0196 0.08
Untended Land Crumbles 92 39.6 66.3% -0.5 -0.2753 0.589

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 6122 23.45% 31.66 52.07% -0.008 0.7756 -0.011
Northeast 6112 23.44% 31.65 52.01% -0.008 0.7536 -0.011
Northwest 6113 23.44% 31.62 52.0% -0.008 0.8342 -0.011
Southeast 6112 23.43% 31.65 52.0% -0.008 0.6314 -0.011
Southwest 6102 23.38% 31.63 51.95% -0.008 1.0373 -0.011
West 6121 23.46% 31.66 52.07% -0.008 0.7677 -0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 46 0.0% 20.59 41.3% -0.335 0.539
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 16.67% 26.0 41.67%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 665 8.1% 39.86 53.83% -0.176 -0.4673 -0.653
Start of Game Growth 1323 9.33% 48.32 61.98% 1.038 0.4813 0.689
Unlimited Undo 930 11.52% 40.05 51.61% 0.105 0.169 -0.184
Using Tokens but Not Events 1330 6.93% 24.24 37.89% -0.008 -0.135 -0.713

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2599 12.44 6.35%
II 1645 29.94 74.59%
III 1410 34.9 94.04%
IV 505 38.84 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 165
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1235
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1070
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 496
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2160
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 378
Lose: Scenario condition 162
Win: Scenario condition 251
Lose: Blight pool ran out 217
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)