Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 46.67% 22.6 26.67% -0.339 -0.7857
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 44.6 100.0% 0.43 0.8869 0.394
Dahan Insurrection 4 121 19.83% 63.78 59.5% -0.24 -0.2196 -0.707
Despicable Theft 2 4 25.0% 43.5 100.0% 0.106 0.6181 0.253
Elemental Invocation 1 12 16.67% 30.67 75.0% 0.041 0.7396
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 344 3.78% 63.07 79.94% -0.186 -0.1447 1.019
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 28.5 70.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 9 22.22% 58.89 66.67% 0.048
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 75.0% 46.75 25.0% -0.499 -0.0684 -0.449
Second Wave 0 80 43.75% 28.61 82.5% 0.287 0.7488
Varied Terrains 2 6 66.67% 38.83 50.0% 0.102 0.93 -0.158
Ward the Shores 2 7 28.57% 41.14 57.14% 0.097 0.8414 0.279

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 31 47.23 74.19% 0.335 2.0654 0.77
Aid From Lesser Spirits 18 42.22 61.11% -0.212 1.3638 -0.096
All Things Weaken 34 41.97 70.59% -1.475 0.4025 0.332
Back Against the Wall 28 41.18 46.43% 0.135 1.7716 0.419
Disintegrating Ecosystem 24 37.13 50.0% 0.313 2.1562 -0.193
Downward Spiral 30 42.37 80.0% 0.256 1.9539 0.018
Erosion of Will 29 36.34 55.17% -0.187 1.7126 -0.216
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19 40.89 89.47% 0.189 0.6889 0.48
Memory Fades to Dust 22 44.68 81.82% 0.185 2.0614 0.615
Power Corrodes the Spirit 39 36.21 58.97% -0.156 1.5486 -0.492
Promising Farmlands 25 36.16 44.0% -0.874
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 39.44 83.33% 0.53 0.7406 -0.47
Thriving Communities 22 30.64 72.73% -0.47 1.4005 -1.109
Unnatural Proliferation 32 39.66 81.25% 0.187 1.9406 0.713
Untended Land Crumbles 30 41.97 70.0% -0.671 1.1436 0.143

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 1462 26.31% 44.86 80.57% 0.014 0.6059 -0.011
Northeast 1454 26.32% 44.93 80.47% 0.014 0.6911 -0.011
Northwest 1454 26.25% 44.86 80.47% 0.014 0.4519 -0.011
Southeast 1453 26.26% 44.93 80.45% 0.014 0.6777 -0.011
Southwest 1446 26.18% 45.0 80.43% 0.014 1.1856 -0.011
West 1461 26.33% 44.87 80.56% 0.014 0.8319 -0.011

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 25.9 40.0% -0.813 1.2623
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 0.0% 59.5 50.0% -0.178
Skip Initial Invader Actions 98 7.61% 58.09 81.63% 0.016 -1.0429 -0.22
Start of Game Growth 275 11.99% 60.28 75.27% -0.649 -1.0712 -0.161
Unlimited Undo 110 6.73% 54.45 85.45% 0.474 0.0582 -0.982
Using Tokens but Not Events 183 13.29% 47.4 86.34% -0.374 -0.2581 0.433

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 250 22.63 21.6%
II 559 31.12 86.94%
III 492 34.7 95.73%
IV 198 37.97 98.99%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 445
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 436
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 196
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 130
Lose: Scenario condition 64
Win: Scenario condition 76
Lose: Blight pool ran out 79
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)