Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 33 30.3% 17.79 30.3% 0.512 0.5563 -0.859
Blitz 0 23 39.13% 25.3 52.17% -0.238 -0.0236 0.74
Dahan Insurrection 4 886 10.05% 23.61 22.01% -0.565 -0.8527 -0.947
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 26.08 50.0% 0.443
Elemental Invocation 1 34 20.59% 20.41 47.06% -0.18
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1127 2.84% 46.93 57.76% 1.238 0.6375 0.693
Powers Long Forgotten 1 28 25.0% 17.86 42.86% -0.69 0.1478 -0.105
Rituals of Terror 3 21 33.33% 39.86 47.62% 0.448 0.508 0.434
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 27 44.44% 23.3 22.22% -0.769
Second Wave 0 158 33.77% 23.08 63.29% -0.414 -0.1636 -0.336
Varied Terrains 2 27 44.44% 27.67 44.44% 0.71 1.5396 -0.546
Ward the Shores 2 34 26.47% 19.21 35.29% -0.122

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 61 41.21 65.57% -0.091 -0.0186 0.608
Aid From Lesser Spirits 55 39.47 56.36% 0.228 0.157 0.288
All Things Weaken 75 34.83 58.67% 0.16 0.4188 0.398
Attenuated Essence 31 36.58 45.16% -0.237 -0.2731 0.168
Back Against the Wall 60 37.9 46.67% 0.672 0.7257 0.292
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 34 42.91 58.82% -0.123 0.0226 0.566
Burn Brightest Before the End 41 37.56 46.34% -0.313 -0.2965 0.429
Disintegrating Ecosystem 63 38.46 53.97% 0.69 0.8776 0.364
Downward Spiral 64 35.25 64.06% 0.9 0.9746 -0.161
Erosion of Will 69 37.45 53.62% -0.315 -0.1599 0.21
Intensifying Exploitation 45 45.93 62.22% 0.439 0.5749 1.545
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 44.0 82.86% 1.218 0.6036 1.034
Memory Fades to Dust 55 40.16 61.82% -0.045 0.1587 0.605
Power Corrodes the Spirit 68 31.43 50.0% 0.543 0.7179 -0.309
Promising Farmlands 64 34.19 50.0% 0.681 0.8792 0.403
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 37.17 47.22% -0.636 -0.6332 0.879
Slow Dissolution of Will 32 45.56 65.63% 0.327 0.6251 0.736
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 34.96 70.37% -0.415 -1.1123 0.047
The Border of Life and Death 10 28.1 30.0% 0.324
Thriving Communities 69 35.03 68.12% 0.028 0.1838 0.684
Thriving Crops 12 31.58 50.0% 0.454 0.1416 0.27
Unnatural Proliferation 79 42.32 72.15% 0.366 0.4748 1.2
Untended Land Crumbles 80 39.49 65.0% -0.442 -0.2597 0.709

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 4992 23.14% 31.61 52.48% -0.014 0.7951 -0.013
Northeast 4982 23.12% 31.6 52.41% -0.014 0.7838 -0.013
Northwest 4983 23.12% 31.58 52.4% -0.014 0.7194 -0.013
Southeast 4982 23.1% 31.6 52.39% -0.014 0.8792 -0.013
Southwest 4972 23.05% 31.58 52.33% -0.014 1.2437 -0.013
West 4991 23.14% 31.62 52.47% -0.014 0.9833 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 39 0.0% 23.1 46.15% 0.271 0.9392 0.325
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 9.09% 25.82 36.36% -0.245 0.1761 -0.164
Skip Initial Invader Actions 448 9.79% 40.04 55.36% -0.543 -1.3117 -0.898
Start of Game Growth 963 9.6% 49.52 63.24% -0.161 -0.599 1.551
Unlimited Undo 638 10.21% 39.67 52.51% 0.734 0.6687 -0.139
Using Tokens but Not Events 1124 7.37% 22.12 35.5% 0.316 0.2731 -0.41

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2120 13.76 5.85%
II 1337 30.19 76.51%
III 1162 34.82 94.41%
IV 410 38.63 98.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 124
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1022
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 892
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 404
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1757
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 286
Lose: Scenario condition 148
Win: Scenario condition 207
Lose: Blight pool ran out 169
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)