Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 22 40.91% 22.5 31.82% -0.361 -0.4391
Blitz 0 6 16.67% 37.17 83.33% 0.209 0.3555 0.429
Dahan Insurrection 4 197 15.23% 43.31 40.61% -0.589 -0.7964 -0.823
Despicable Theft 2 6 33.33% 34.17 83.33% -0.161 0.5218 0.368
Elemental Invocation 1 15 13.33% 28.27 66.67% 0.137 0.8679
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 414 3.38% 58.14 73.43% 0.371 -0.2354 1.483
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 33.33% 23.75 58.33% -0.721 -0.2327
Rituals of Terror 3 10 30.0% 59.2 70.0% 0.345 0.4503 0.004
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 75.0% 46.75 25.0% -0.435
Second Wave 0 92 42.39% 27.36 79.35% 0.765 0.8273
Varied Terrains 2 8 62.5% 35.13 50.0% 0.053 0.6157 -0.141
Ward the Shores 2 9 44.44% 35.44 44.44% -0.509 0.7003 0.427

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 35 46.2 71.43% 0.235 0.5066 0.654
Aid From Lesser Spirits 28 41.82 67.86% 0.927 0.9651 0.055
All Things Weaken 41 38.12 68.29% -0.39 0.0711 0.028
Attenuated Essence 7 29.57 42.86% -0.879 -0.6732 -0.785
Back Against the Wall 37 39.11 48.65% 0.092 0.2536 0.195
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 25.75 25.0% -1.006 -0.5917 -0.902
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 33.6 40.0% -0.711 -0.4063 -0.468
Disintegrating Ecosystem 27 39.44 55.56% 0.956 1.4823 0.212
Downward Spiral 35 43.51 80.0% 0.328 0.6806 0.338
Erosion of Will 32 37.91 59.38% 1.123 1.5311 0.282
Intensifying Exploitation 4 63.75 100.0% 0.525 0.9121 0.57
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 41.62 85.71% 0.117 -0.4079 0.665
Memory Fades to Dust 24 44.67 75.0% -0.189 0.2919 0.468
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40 35.3 57.5% -0.798 -0.4933 -0.561
Promising Farmlands 29 35.28 44.83% -0.064 0.5216 -0.734
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 9.33 0.0% -0.612 -0.4335 -0.047
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 29.17 50.0% -0.19 0.344 -0.685
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 41.3 85.0% 1.152 0.4736 -0.121
Thriving Communities 27 29.22 66.67% -0.493 0.0003 -0.832
Thriving Crops 3 38.67 66.67% 0.336 0.4242 -0.427
Unnatural Proliferation 34 41.59 82.35% 0.562 0.8592 0.89
Untended Land Crumbles 34 42.47 73.53% 1.462 1.8203 0.537

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 1863 25.8% 40.16 71.55% -0.016 0.5879 -0.013
Northeast 1855 25.8% 40.19 71.43% -0.016 0.8647 -0.013
Northwest 1855 25.75% 40.14 71.43% -0.016 0.6566 -0.013
Southeast 1854 25.76% 40.19 71.41% -0.016 0.62 -0.013
Southwest 1847 25.7% 40.22 71.36% -0.016 1.1483 -0.013
West 1862 25.81% 40.17 71.54% -0.016 0.948 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14 0.0% 18.5 28.57% -0.772 0.1109
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 20.0% 42.8 40.0% 0.23 0.5623 -0.207
Skip Initial Invader Actions 147 8.03% 46.16 65.31% 0.001 -0.5336 -0.715
Start of Game Growth 345 11.71% 54.37 68.41% -0.481 -0.8117 -0.391
Unlimited Undo 167 7.45% 43.87 68.86% -0.024 -0.0461 -0.563
Using Tokens but Not Events 326 9.94% 33.09 59.2% -0.493 -0.5474 -0.769

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 480 21.03 13.54%
II 621 31.04 84.86%
III 573 34.74 95.46%
IV 226 38.02 98.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 65
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 520
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 471
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 222
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 228
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 145
Lose: Scenario condition 71
Win: Scenario condition 84
Lose: Blight pool ran out 85
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)