Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 26 34.62% 20.42 30.77% -0.346 -0.5326 -0.254
Blitz 0 15 53.33% 28.13 53.33% 0.715
Dahan Insurrection 4 522 9.39% 23.79 22.22% -1.416 -1.6713 -1.026
Despicable Theft 2 11 36.36% 22.45 45.45% -0.117 0.4246 0.411
Elemental Invocation 1 30 23.33% 20.53 46.67% 0.202 1.0582 -0.021
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 694 2.74% 49.87 61.96% -0.458 -1.2287 0.929
Powers Long Forgotten 1 15 33.33% 22.8 53.33% -0.671 0.2633
Rituals of Terror 3 17 29.41% 39.88 52.94% -0.683 -0.5871 0.349
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 21 52.38% 21.57 14.29% -0.657 0.5402 -0.723
Second Wave 0 116 37.07% 25.62 71.55% 0.199 0.2848 -0.296
Varied Terrains 2 22 50.0% 26.23 40.91% 0.214 1.002 -0.576
Ward the Shores 2 21 38.1% 24.24 38.1% -0.169

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 44.21 69.77% -0.055 0.0745 1.074
Aid From Lesser Spirits 38 39.84 60.53% 0.175 0.0564 0.292
All Things Weaken 59 33.81 61.02% 0.33 0.6371 0.087
Attenuated Essence 21 32.67 47.62% 0.064 0.0959 -0.066
Back Against the Wall 44 39.11 47.73% -0.308 -0.2781 0.3
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 15 45.33 60.0% -0.175 0.0111 0.231
Burn Brightest Before the End 21 31.38 42.86% 0.199 0.2693 0.045
Disintegrating Ecosystem 37 39.59 51.35% -0.201 0.1751 0.115
Downward Spiral 47 38.55 70.21% -0.313 -0.1472 -0.158
Erosion of Will 50 36.62 56.0% 0.46 0.6747 -0.011
Intensifying Exploitation 22 43.86 63.64% 0.007 0.2489 1.071
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25 44.24 84.0% -0.258 -0.839 0.73
Memory Fades to Dust 36 41.31 66.67% -0.366 -0.0735 0.349
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54 32.98 51.85% 0.259 0.4203 -0.208
Promising Farmlands 43 33.44 51.16% 0.1 0.3956 -0.037
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 26.18 36.36% -0.067 0.0211 0.541
Slow Dissolution of Will 17 36.82 58.82% 0.087 0.4802 -0.12
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 36.91 73.91% -0.221 -0.9323 -0.033
The Border of Life and Death 6 13.5 0.0% -0.573 -1.0526 -0.127
Thriving Communities 46 35.52 69.57% 1.82 2.1201 0.536
Thriving Crops 5 40.8 60.0% -0.1
Unnatural Proliferation 59 43.78 77.97% -0.062 0.1067 1.111
Untended Land Crumbles 55 41.53 70.91% 0.949 1.2071 0.719

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 3178 24.03% 33.56 57.84% -0.021 0.9673 -0.014
Northeast 3170 24.02% 33.57 57.73% -0.021 0.9284 -0.014
Northwest 3170 23.99% 33.53 57.73% -0.021 1.0204 -0.014
Southeast 3168 23.97% 33.55 57.7% -0.021 0.8972 -0.014
Southwest 3161 23.93% 33.56 57.64% -0.021 1.4358 -0.014
West 3177 24.03% 33.56 57.82% -0.021 1.086 -0.014

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 18.26 30.43% -0.507 0.1565
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 16.67% 35.67 33.33% -0.325 0.1693 -0.109
Skip Initial Invader Actions 286 10.49% 42.71 59.44% 0.516 -0.1063 -0.764
Start of Game Growth 616 10.91% 50.92 64.94% 0.758 0.3454 0.828
Unlimited Undo 377 10.11% 39.19 55.7% -0.586 -0.681 -0.664
Using Tokens but Not Events 745 7.34% 23.68 39.46% -0.593 -0.5175 -0.613

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1197 16.77 6.93%
II 902 30.59 79.05%
III 812 34.74 94.83%
IV 304 38.3 99.01%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 83
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 729
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 631
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 300
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 908
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 206
Lose: Scenario condition 102
Win: Scenario condition 124
Lose: Blight pool ran out 118
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)