Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 30.0% 17.7 26.67% -0.592 -0.5768 -0.705
Blitz 0 19 47.37% 25.63 52.63% 0.306 0.5943 0.711
Dahan Insurrection 4 639 10.33% 23.35 21.44% -0.322 -0.4985 -1.022
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 26.08 50.0% 0.32 1.1807 0.439
Elemental Invocation 1 33 21.21% 20.03 45.45% -0.156 0.7775 -0.184
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 810 2.47% 48.11 59.88% -0.185 -0.8316 0.806
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 29.41% 20.12 47.06% -0.343 0.6025 -0.069
Rituals of Terror 3 17 29.41% 39.88 52.94% 0.374
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 52.17% 22.04 13.04% -0.209 0.9063 -0.619
Second Wave 0 123 34.96% 24.67 68.29% -0.771 -0.741 -0.338
Varied Terrains 2 23 47.83% 25.09 39.13% -0.125 0.6493 -0.573
Ward the Shores 2 27 29.63% 21.48 37.04% -0.031 1.0135 -0.184

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 47 43.47 72.34% 0.626 0.8016 1.159
Aid From Lesser Spirits 43 39.98 55.81% -0.871 -0.925 0.291
All Things Weaken 64 32.88 57.81% -0.057 0.2362 0.045
Attenuated Essence 24 32.58 41.67% -0.741 -0.6576 -0.06
Back Against the Wall 49 37.37 44.9% -0.171 -0.1238 0.341
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 19 45.68 57.89% 0.236 0.4397 0.559
Burn Brightest Before the End 24 33.0 45.83% 0.017 0.2044 0.058
Disintegrating Ecosystem 47 37.09 48.94% 0.39 0.7989 0.025
Downward Spiral 48 38.4 68.75% -0.176 -0.0484 -0.175
Erosion of Will 56 37.64 55.36% 0.029 0.3118 0.276
Intensifying Exploitation 29 43.79 58.62% 0.393 0.6404 1.298
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 25 44.24 84.0% 0.786
Memory Fades to Dust 43 40.91 65.12% 0.795 1.0318 0.433
Power Corrodes the Spirit 58 32.83 50.0% -0.036 0.1824 -0.215
Promising Farmlands 49 31.63 51.02% 0.348 0.643 -0.014
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 33.35 41.18% 0.02 0.2218 0.267
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 36.15 55.0% -0.169 0.2155 -0.114
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 25 35.04 72.0% -0.069 -0.6503 -0.048
The Border of Life and Death 8 25.88 25.0% 0.651 0.1333 -0.095
Thriving Communities 52 35.0 67.31% -0.177 0.1619 0.871
Thriving Crops 6 36.33 50.0% -0.048
Unnatural Proliferation 65 42.68 73.85% -0.263 -0.1224 0.945
Untended Land Crumbles 60 40.42 70.0% -0.371 0.0774 0.834

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25 44.0% 23.28 80.0%
B 26 53.85% 22.0 76.92%
C 28 57.14% 22.07 75.0%
D 27 51.85% 20.96 77.78%
E 25 44.0% 22.2 84.0%
F 34 52.94% 21.44 76.47%
G 33 54.55% 22.0 78.79%
H 29 48.28% 23.83 82.76%
East 3705 23.36% 32.52 55.6% -0.014 0.8319 -0.014
Northeast 3696 23.33% 32.52 55.52% -0.014 0.7567 -0.014
Northwest 3697 23.32% 32.49 55.5% -0.014 0.7934 -0.014
Southeast 3695 23.31% 32.51 55.48% -0.014 0.8554 -0.014
Southwest 3687 23.25% 32.51 55.44% -0.014 1.2677 -0.014
West 3704 23.36% 32.52 55.59% -0.014 0.9819 -0.014

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 21.56 33.33% 0.485 1.2809 0.786
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 14.29% 30.57 28.57% -0.116
Skip Initial Invader Actions 338 11.75% 43.04 61.24% 1.335 0.7207 -0.698
Start of Game Growth 712 11.19% 50.67 65.45% -0.272 -0.8537 1.035
Unlimited Undo 440 11.06% 40.99 57.5% 0.141 0.1849 -0.479
Using Tokens but Not Events 866 7.75% 23.34 38.34% -0.381 -0.4389 -0.423

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1469 15.74 6.47%
II 1028 30.48 77.53%
III 908 34.79 95.04%
IV 337 38.41 99.11%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 95
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 811
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 703
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 333
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1156
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 231
Lose: Scenario condition 115
Win: Scenario condition 147
Lose: Blight pool ran out 136
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)