Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 2 50.0% 21.0 50.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.687 0.0% -0.24 -0.1131
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 66.67% 21.67 33.33%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 12 41.67% 27.25 1.547 50.0% -0.17 0.2335
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 29.4 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 30.77% 32.85 61.54%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4 25.0% 12.25 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 20.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 12 25.0% 68.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 19 21.05% 27.84 1.251 63.16% 0.175 0.3369
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8 25.0% 26.13 0.121 50.0% -0.21 -0.0746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 36 58.33% 46.06 0.883 72.22% 0.296 0.2451
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 18 44.44% 45.33 61.11%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 33.33% 26.25 41.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 83.33% 69.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 72.73% 42.55 27.27%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 55.0% 23.0 35.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 25.0% 33.33 -5.294 58.33% -0.266 0.1099
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 14.29% 48.71 -1.146 57.14% -0.538 0.0405
The Kingdom of England 3 6 28 14.29% 49.21 42.86%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 12 8.33% 44.42 41.67%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 25 48.0% 62.8 48.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 90 20.22% 72.54 7.636 74.44% 0.179 1.9051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 14 30.77% 28.07 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 14.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 15 13.33% 45.47 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 40.0% 56.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 42.14 14.29%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 50 38.0% 58.56 38.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 24 66.67% 68.88 58.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 66.67% 26.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 25.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 30 56.67% 64.4 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 16 68.75% 23.56 6.25%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15 57.14% 47.27 26.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 12 33.33% 26.92 -6.133 75.0% -0.282 -0.0138
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 26.64 54.55%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 37.5% 20.75 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 30.77% 40.0 69.23%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 20.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8 37.5% 9.5 12.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 39.29% 39.68 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 0.0% 20.14 42.86%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 31.6 9.18 60.0% 0.168 1.0317
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 25.0% 44.5 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 7 42.86% 10.29 14.29%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 14.29% 25.79 21.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 72.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 43 51.16% 53.79 25.58%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 7.38 12.5%
Blitz 0 16 43.75% 23.06 50.0% -0.282 0.15
Dahan Insurrection 4 95 45.26% 59.42 43.16% -0.157
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 109 5.5% 68.23 80.73% -0.17 -0.7693 0.04
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 33.33% 20.42 25.0% -0.159 0.4497
Rituals of Terror 3 16 50.0% 85.0 56.25%
Second Wave 0 123 30.89% 27.15 83.74%
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 75.0 100.0% 0.168 0.9045 0.344
Ward the Shores 2 4 50.0% 43.25 50.0% -0.24 0.4419 -0.11

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 29.79 31.58% -0.26
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 56.6 73.33% -0.169
All Things Weaken 10 54.9 70.0%
Attenuated Essence 4 54.5 75.0%
Back Against the Wall 17 51.35 82.35% 0.374
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 32.75 25.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 29.83 41.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 42.0 46.15%
Downward Spiral 22 40.14 54.55% 0.296 0.4893
Erosion of Will 11 27.64 45.45%
Intensifying Exploitation 6 30.83 16.67%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 67.88 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 38.44 61.11%
Promising Farmlands 6 38.33 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 44.33 50.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67%
The Border of Life and Death 6 52.0 83.33%
Thriving Communities 17 36.12 70.59% 0.258
Thriving Crops 2 30.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 11 63.0 72.73%
Untended Land Crumbles 19 39.42 52.63%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 711 33.15% 41.35 63.15% 0.27 1.0154 0.112
Northeast 630 33.6% 41.48 62.22% -0.199 0.694 -0.004
Northwest 586 31.45% 42.19 63.48% 0.241 0.9847 0.345
Southeast 543 32.35% 40.32 60.77% -0.467 0.5416 -0.223
Southwest 457 34.21% 37.07 63.68% -0.281 0.8754 -0.02
West 709 32.96% 41.05 63.05% 0.455 1.438 -0.229

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.228
Skip Initial Invader Actions 72 4.29% 51.36 66.67% -0.212 -1.0172
Start of Game Growth 87 7.06% 52.26 71.26% -0.009 -0.5759
Unlimited Undo 93 10.99% 52.22 67.74% -0.009 0.0181
Using Tokens but Not Events 118 24.14% 53.09 73.73% 0.393 0.3655

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 223 12.25 8.07%
II 169 29.91 74.56%
III 235 34.94 91.06%
IV 131 38.9 99.24%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 195
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 127
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 153
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)