Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 0.0% 7.38 12.5% 0.185 0.1559
Blitz 0 15 46.67% 24.6 53.33%
Dahan Insurrection 4 95 45.26% 59.42 43.16% -0.054 -0.0403 0.113
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 107 5.61% 68.92 82.24% 0.523
Powers Long Forgotten 1 11 36.36% 22.27 27.27%
Rituals of Terror 3 16 50.0% 85.0 56.25%
Second Wave 0 122 31.15% 27.37 84.43%
Ward the Shores 2 3 66.67% 57.67 66.67% -0.137

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 18 31.44 33.33% -0.416 -0.267 -0.213
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 56.6 73.33% -0.231 -0.3437 -0.234
All Things Weaken 10 54.9 70.0%
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0%
Back Against the Wall 17 51.35 82.35% 0.455 0.4962 0.394
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 32.75 25.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 29.83 41.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 42.0 46.15%
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18%
Erosion of Will 11 27.64 45.45%
Intensifying Exploitation 6 30.83 16.67%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 67.88 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 38.44 61.11%
Promising Farmlands 6 38.33 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 44.33 50.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67%
The Border of Life and Death 6 52.0 83.33%
Thriving Communities 16 36.75 68.75% 0.204 0.5237 0.266
Thriving Crops 2 30.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 11 63.0 72.73%
Untended Land Crumbles 19 39.42 52.63% -0.137

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 686 33.04% 41.8 63.27% 0.109 0.8923 0.1
Northeast 607 33.55% 41.9 62.27% -0.189 0.5726 -0.005
Northwest 567 31.27% 42.57 63.49% 0.111 0.953 -0.028
Southeast 526 32.82% 40.83 61.22% 0.026 0.6651 -0.21
Southwest 436 33.79% 37.59 63.99% -0.295 0.7506 0.397
West 684 32.84% 41.49 63.16% 0.22 0.9956 -0.279

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.137
Skip Initial Invader Actions 69 4.48% 53.1 68.12% 0.232 -0.0596 0.078
Start of Game Growth 83 7.41% 54.06 72.29% 0.232 -0.325 0.078
Unlimited Undo 89 11.49% 53.89 68.54% 0.232 0.2954 0.335
Using Tokens but Not Events 112 20.91% 54.01 72.32% 0.232 0.1046 0.787

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 214 12.44 8.41%
II 166 29.94 74.7%
III 230 34.9 90.87%
IV 123 38.84 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 190
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 101
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 119
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 146
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 55
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)