Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Thematic (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
191	30.37%	56.88	92.15%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	102	26.47%	63.29	1.007	88.24%	-0.73	-0.6256
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	15	46.67%	38.87	-3.275	100.0%	0.335	0.533
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	15	46.67%	36.13	-3.164	80.0%	-0.732	-0.8457
Eyes Watch From the Trees	15	46.67%	40.27	-3.86	100.0%	0.68	0.2762
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	25	40.0%	37.12	-4.519	84.0%	-0.653	-0.9583
Fractured Days Split the Sky	21	38.1%	58.43	1.195	71.43%	-0.141	0.2068
Heart of the Wildfire	19	42.11%	49.42	-1.809	89.47%	-0.215	0.1032
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	43	44.19%	52.21	-1.934	93.02%	0.099	-0.2432
Lightning's Swift Strike	17	41.18%	62.29	3.35	94.12%	0.069	0.2944
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	22	18.18%	57.82	0.343	95.45%	0.061	-0.2255

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	4	75.0%	37.75	-4.997	75.0%	-0.246	0.0428
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	2	50.0%	45.0	-1.32	100.0%	0.047	0.461
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	3	33.33%	51.67	0.32	100.0%	0.101	0.9839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	1	100.0%	57.0	5.313	100.0%	0.059	1.5558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	8	25.0%	69.5	4.674	87.5%	-0.514	1.5284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	4	0.0%	39.5	-1.981	100.0%	0.195	0.2367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	4	50.0%	52.0	1.095	100.0%	0.107	0.121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	5	60.0%	57.0	3.755	100.0%	0.247	0.53
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	3	33.33%	57.33	1.614	100.0%	0.14	0.4993
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	2	50.0%	85.0	14.058	100.0%	0.231	1.0555

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	4	50.0%	40.5	-3.77	100.0%	0.452	1.0181
Dahan Insurrection	4	6	50.0%	91.0	14.557	100.0%	0.288	0.6879
Elemental Invocation	1	2	0.0%	41.0	-8.871	100.0%	0.03	0.533
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	63	4.76%	78.75	8.722	98.41%	0.613	0.9775
Powers Long Forgotten	1	5	60.0%	44.0	-1.681	60.0%	-0.613	-0.1664
Second Wave	0	36	16.67%	32.42	-7.293	97.22%	0.563	0.9927
Ward the Shores	2	1	0.0%	79.0	3.19	100.0%	0.038	1.0701

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	4	37.25	-5.455	75.0%	-0.51	1.5592
Aid From Lesser Spirits	6	73.33	7.657	100.0%	0.243	2.1558
All Things Weaken	2	56.0	2.071	100.0%	0.384	2.5435
Back Against the Wall	8	43.88	-0.568	87.5%	-0.264	1.8234
Disintegrating Ecosystem	2	30.0	-9.271	100.0%	0.027	2.249
Downward Spiral	3	45.33	-0.345	100.0%	0.221	2.2425
Erosion of Will	2	20.5	-12.591	50.0%	-0.348	1.8599
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	35.0	-4.49	100.0%	0.002	0.6812
Memory Fades to Dust	10	60.2	2.311	90.0%	-0.052	2.1632
Power Corrodes the Spirit	7	46.0	-1.326	71.43%	-0.348	1.6735
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	-3.384	100.0%	0.015	2.223
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	1	34.0	-11.318	0.0%	-0.499	-0.0873
Unnatural Proliferation	4	70.25	3.339	75.0%	-0.386	1.695
Untended Land Crumbles	7	54.14	0.608	71.43%	-0.451	1.6508

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
East	188	30.32%	57.09	0.638	92.02%	-0.059	-0.6353
Northeast	167	30.54%	57.66	1.117	92.81%	0.156	-0.3683
Northwest	156	26.28%	58.67	1.509	91.67%	-0.257	-0.8525
Southeast	134	33.58%	54.69	-0.997	90.3%	-0.429	-1.0584
Southwest	123	32.52%	55.45	-0.431	93.5%	0.386	0.1875
West	187	29.95%	56.99	-2.473	92.51%	0.244	-0.0831

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Skip Initial Invader Actions	24	8.33%	68.88	1.97	100.0%	0.458	-0.2283
Start of Game Growth	31	9.68%	68.81	3.517	100.0%	0.684	0.2146
Unlimited Undo	24	8.33%	68.96	2.177	100.0%	0.462	0.0393
Using Tokens but Not Events	29	44.83%	61.0	1.339	72.41%	-0.876	-0.9266

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	23	22.37	52.17%
II	56	30.88	96.43%
III	65	34.39	96.92%
IV	47	37.55	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	8
Lose: Blight pool ran out	6
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	49
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	61
Win: Scenario condition	7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.