Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 36.0 -7.915 100.0% 0.02 0.3029
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 51.0 4.569 100.0% 0.016 0.8772
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 3.542 100.0% 0.037 1.571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 56.0 1.895 66.67% -0.644 1.4332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1 0.0% 34.0 -5.74 100.0% 0.045 0.0881
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.557 100.0% 0.055 0.0551
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 50.0% 54.0 1.46 100.0% 0.091 0.384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 3 33.33% 57.33 1.327 100.0% 0.08 0.4503
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 90.0 11.282 100.0% 0.015 0.8535
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -3.656 100.0% 0.012 0.3426
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 55.0 1.491 100.0% 0.021 1.6014
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 33.33% 68.33 3.418 100.0% 0.074 2.145
The Kingdom of England 6 11 32 18.75% 80.22 7.914 96.88% -0.162 2.095
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 35.5 -4.283 100.0% 0.071 0.5959
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 1.787 100.0% 0.039 2.2237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 94.0 15.249 100.0% 0.01 1.8365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5 80.0% 82.8 12.954 100.0% 0.139 2.2672
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 29.67 -9.025 100.0% 0.073 0.1612
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -5.041 100.0% 0.008 0.2273
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.713 0.0% -0.718 -0.4352
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 3.055 100.0% 0.017 0.7879
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2 50.0% 75.5 6.914 100.0% 0.056 1.188
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 4.096 100.0% 0.097 1.2372

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -4.687 100.0% 0.139 0.7162
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 40.0% 88.2 13.019 100.0% 0.128 0.5287
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 32 3.13% 78.19 6.897 96.88% -0.143 0.2232
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 56.33 1.91 100.0% 0.062 0.5032
Second Wave 0 17 29.41% 32.71 -8.465 100.0% 0.309 0.7248

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2 39.0 -7.179 100.0% 0.043 2.1135
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 73.67 7.168 100.0% 0.149 2.0671
All Things Weaken 1 54.0 -3.348 100.0% 0.03 2.1844
Back Against the Wall 6 46.5 1.035 100.0% 0.208 2.3039
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -9.095 100.0% 0.043 2.2668
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -2.672 100.0% 0.056 2.0727
Erosion of Will 1 22.0 -16.678 100.0% 0.013 2.2227
Memory Fades to Dust 6 59.33 3.122 100.0% 0.158 2.3734
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 -2.577 100.0% 0.121 2.1411
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -2.926 100.0% 0.012 2.2244
Unnatural Proliferation 3 67.0 -0.209 66.67% -0.664 1.4133
Untended Land Crumbles 4 49.0 -4.664 75.0% -0.644 1.4549

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 95 36.84% 58.36 -1.267 96.84% -0.037 -0.9878
Northeast 83 36.14% 60.05 1.802 97.59% 0.318 -0.5716
Northwest 79 31.65% 59.9 0.62 96.2% -0.325 -1.2897
Southeast 69 44.93% 57.01 0.099 95.65% -0.378 -1.3793
Southwest 64 37.5% 55.34 -0.898 98.44% 0.525 -0.083
West 95 36.84% 57.78 -5.413 96.84% -0.08 -0.7664

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 64.0 2.225 100.0% 0.06 -0.6438
Start of Game Growth 8 12.5% 66.38 3.778 100.0% 0.204 -0.25
Unlimited Undo 3 0.0% 62.0 0.278 100.0% 0.095 -0.3174
Using Tokens but Not Events 6 66.67% 50.5 -0.698 100.0% 0.106 0.0588

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5 22.34 80.0%
II 31 30.75 96.77%
III 33 34.26 96.97%
IV 28 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 31
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 26
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 28
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)