Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 51.0 4.922 100.0% 0.018 0.8658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 3.481 100.0% 0.037 1.5592
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 56.0 1.796 66.67% -0.63 1.4624
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1 0.0% 34.0 -5.664 100.0% 0.05 0.0972
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.544 100.0% 0.06 0.0574
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 54.67 1.164 100.0% 0.068 0.3528
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 3 33.33% 57.33 1.555 100.0% 0.09 0.4684
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 90.0 11.466 100.0% 0.016 0.8494
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -3.657 100.0% 0.012 0.345
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 55.0 1.599 100.0% 0.023 1.6005
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 66.0 2.627 100.0% 0.073 2.1372
The Kingdom of England 6 11 28 21.43% 79.61 8.245 96.43% -0.155 2.1007
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 35.5 -3.436 100.0% 0.081 0.6056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 1.179 100.0% 0.041 2.2278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 94.0 15.047 100.0% 0.011 1.8294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5 80.0% 82.8 13.035 100.0% 0.147 2.2823
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 29.67 -8.199 100.0% 0.08 0.1658
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -5.198 100.0% 0.008 0.2253
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -12.735 0.0% -0.69 -0.405
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 3.013 100.0% 0.018 0.7951
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2 50.0% 75.5 7.031 100.0% 0.059 1.192

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -3.879 100.0% 0.15 0.7229
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 40.0% 88.2 13.092 100.0% 0.134 0.5347
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 25 4.0% 78.12 6.848 96.0% -0.225 0.1505
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 56.33 1.907 100.0% 0.065 0.5123
Second Wave 0 17 29.41% 32.71 -8.325 100.0% 0.327 0.7462

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1 26.0 -12.943 100.0% 0.011 2.0789
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 73.67 7.1 100.0% 0.16 2.0766
All Things Weaken 1 54.0 -3.02 100.0% 0.033 2.1935
Back Against the Wall 5 48.6 2.525 100.0% 0.203 2.2949
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -9.235 100.0% 0.046 2.2679
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -2.914 100.0% 0.059 2.073
Erosion of Will 1 22.0 -16.401 100.0% 0.014 2.2256
Memory Fades to Dust 6 59.33 3.27 100.0% 0.162 2.3773
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 -2.143 100.0% 0.127 2.1465
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -2.24 100.0% 0.013 2.2276
Unnatural Proliferation 3 67.0 0.192 66.67% -0.651 1.4294
Untended Land Crumbles 4 49.0 -4.565 75.0% -0.624 1.4711

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 86 38.37% 57.06 -1.881 96.51% -0.041 -0.9766
Northeast 74 37.84% 58.74 1.281 97.3% 0.265 -0.6042
Northwest 71 33.8% 58.18 0.29 95.77% -0.321 -1.2663
Southeast 63 47.62% 55.7 0.286 95.24% -0.361 -1.3442
Southwest 60 36.67% 54.9 -0.518 98.33% 0.564 -0.0613
West 86 38.37% 56.42 -5.428 96.51% -0.083 -0.7484

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 64.0 2.922 100.0% 0.073 -0.6325
Start of Game Growth 5 20.0% 64.0 3.298 100.0% 0.118 -0.3411
Unlimited Undo 3 0.0% 62.0 0.988 100.0% 0.116 -0.2861
Using Tokens but Not Events 6 66.67% 50.5 -0.206 100.0% 0.115 0.0685

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4 22.34 75.0%
II 26 30.71 96.15%
III 31 34.23 96.77%
IV 27 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)