Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 71.43% 36.29 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 36.36% 58.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 77.71 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 50.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 100.0% 48.5 -0.601 0.0% -0.228 1.2665
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 60.0% 48.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 66.67% 41.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 0.375 100.0% 0.072 1.2074
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 0.0% 69.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19 52.63% 66.89 52.63%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 60 20.0% 81.55 4.406 90.0% -0.104 2.4335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 54.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 67.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 40.0% 59.0 3.054 20.0% 0.023 2.4111
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 66.67% 66.17 -0.982 50.0% -0.342 1.5757
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 75.0% 83.25 0.978 75.0% -0.433 1.7222
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 3.769 40.0% 0.179 1.0327
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 100.0% 42.6 -1.987 20.0% -0.481 0.867
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 80.0% 64.6 4.961 60.0% -0.111 1.3634
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 42.75 0.375 50.0% 0.072 0.4273
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 14.29% 78.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 0.0% 80.0 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 66.67% 90.5 50.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 32 56.25% 76.75 53.13% -0.574 -0.2717 -0.603
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 78 6.41% 75.31 93.59% 0.424
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 40.83 50.0% 0.257
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 94.57 42.86% -0.179
Second Wave 0 97 27.84% 27.61 89.69% 0.278 0.8505
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.558
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.718 2.4032 0.686
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.204 1.7954 -0.54
Back Against the Wall 10 42.1 80.0% 0.157 2.1048 -0.192
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 40.29 42.86% -0.122 1.9431 -0.503
Downward Spiral 10 44.2 50.0% -0.38 1.5828 -0.071
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% -0.228 0.3878 -0.305
Memory Fades to Dust 13 57.15 84.62% -0.122 1.935 -0.219
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 39.08 61.54% -0.244
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% 0.108 0.4377 -0.047
Thriving Communities 4 52.75 25.0% -0.22 1.8299 -0.386
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.255
Untended Land Crumbles 12 46.42 66.67% 0.093 2.1197 0.073

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 286 36.49% 56.33 83.92% -0.088 0.5916 0.107
Northeast 251 36.4% 56.92 83.27% -0.103 0.4671 -0.532
Northwest 232 33.62% 56.92 82.76% -0.314 0.5276 -0.412
Southeast 210 38.28% 54.88 81.9% -0.309 0.2176 0.388
Southwest 174 36.99% 53.59 87.93% 0.835 1.7764 0.739
West 284 36.04% 55.68 83.8% 0.005 1.0056 -0.249

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 30 6.9% 63.63 93.33% -0.203
Start of Game Growth 41 10.0% 62.76 92.68% -0.184
Unlimited Undo 28 11.11% 64.93 96.43% 0.025
Using Tokens but Not Events 53 36.54% 53.06 79.25% -0.05 -0.0063 -0.119

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 48 22.62 27.08%
II 91 31.05 84.62%
III 117 34.62 95.73%
IV 77 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 104
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 67
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 77
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 24
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)