Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.191 -0.1392 -0.58
Blitz 0 11 54.55% 29.73 63.64% 0.083 0.2833 -0.493
Dahan Insurrection 4 70 47.14% 60.84 42.86% 0.06 -0.1512 -0.506
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.454
Elemental Invocation 1 5 20.0% 39.6 100.0% 0.287 1.358
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 92 5.43% 69.68 84.78% -0.096 -0.8207 0.369
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 50.0% 30.63 37.5% 0.21
Rituals of Terror 3 14 42.86% 89.86 57.14% 0.234 0.2643 0.64
Second Wave 0 108 29.63% 27.94 87.96% 0.395 0.4759
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 67.0 100.0% 0.272 1.3276

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 38.9 50.0% -0.079 0.0593 -0.56
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 59.75 75.0% -0.078 -0.1369 0.584
All Things Weaken 7 61.14 71.43% 0.306 0.661 -0.372
Attenuated Essence 1 122.0 100.0% 0.589
Back Against the Wall 14 43.57 78.57% 0.647 0.7236 -0.002
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 59.0 0.0% -0.041 0.1699 -0.069
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 50.75 50.0% -0.036 0.0851 0.076
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10 43.8 50.0% -0.408
Downward Spiral 15 43.8 46.67% 0.016 0.213 -0.28
Erosion of Will 8 27.0 50.0% 0.444 0.7116 -0.219
Intensifying Exploitation 4 35.0 0.0% -0.651
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 45.17 66.67% 0.42
Memory Fades to Dust 15 61.4 80.0% -0.129 0.1824 -0.175
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 40.63 62.5% -0.2 0.0947 0.325
Promising Farmlands 3 41.67 66.67% -0.052 0.2836 -0.113
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 41.5 25.0% -0.269 -0.1598 0.609
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.079 0.3213
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% -0.067 -0.6801 0.03
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.504
Thriving Communities 12 33.67 66.67% 0.298 0.6312 -0.408
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0% -0.235 -0.3217
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.176
Untended Land Crumbles 16 38.0 56.25% 0.044

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 472 34.61% 46.7 67.8% 0.176 1.0381 -0.11
Northeast 419 34.69% 46.59 66.35% -0.622 0.1249 -0.582
Northwest 389 33.42% 47.84 67.35% -0.161 0.6724 -0.232
Southeast 353 34.09% 45.4 66.01% 0.218 0.9933 0.371
Southwest 296 35.25% 42.03 69.59% 0.146 1.4655 0.39
West 470 34.33% 46.27 67.66% 0.208 1.2139 0.122

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 45 6.82% 57.27 77.78% 0.238 -0.3241 -0.541
Start of Game Growth 59 10.34% 57.63 81.36% 0.238 -0.3007 -0.427
Unlimited Undo 53 7.69% 57.3 75.47% -0.096 -0.0551 -0.028
Using Tokens but Not Events 88 25.29% 52.44 71.59% 0.163 0.1393 0.302

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 139 16.23 10.79%
II 126 30.54 80.16%
III 157 34.77 93.63%
IV 97 38.37 98.97%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 136
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 81
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 95
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 76
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 42
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 32
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)