Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 28.22 -5.617 55.56% -0.383 -0.12
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16 43.75% 62.69 6.864 93.75% 0.476 0.4646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 50.0% 68.0 -5.64 87.5% -0.232 -0.0344
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 54.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 50.0% 40.5 -4.646 66.67% -0.203 0.0629
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 50.0% 31.25 -5.64 50.0% -0.232 -0.0479
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 34.0 -2.192 50.0% -0.097 1.0421
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5 0.0% 72.2 10.559 60.0% 0.184 1.2307
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 47.62% 68.95 11.8 57.14% 0.234 1.8744
The Kingdom of England 6 11 65 18.46% 78.32 3.267 86.15% -0.092 1.9502
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 54.33 55.56%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 79.33 22.975 100.0% 0.268 1.5563
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 6 33.33% 49.17 -8.274 16.67% -0.25 1.1517
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 55.88 -11.697 37.5% -0.23 0.699
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 75.0% 83.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.575 0.0% -0.154 -0.1378
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 42.86% 59.29 5.331 42.86% 0.004 0.3898
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 75.0% 32.88 -9.283 12.5% -0.41 0.2088
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 59.0 8.5 100.0% 0.281 1.0644
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 0.0% 30.4 -2.192 60.0% -0.097 -0.0712
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 33.33% 34.0 -7.355 66.67% -0.163 0.0602
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 40.0% 34.2 -6.16 40.0% -0.206 0.2221
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 20.67 -4.858 33.33% -0.148 0.4603
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10 40.0% 75.7 8.764 100.0% 0.224 1.1107
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 32.67 -6.258 66.67% -0.165 -0.0436
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 55.5 15.48 100.0% 0.516 0.9421
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 50.0% 9.5 0.361 0.0% -0.195 0.9199
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 16.67% 56.5 -1.869 50.0% -0.11 0.7942
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 56.25% 87.5 -4.704 50.0% -0.197 1.6432

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.496 -0.7515 -0.379
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 38 50.0% 76.11 55.26% 0.329 -0.1136 -0.189
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81 6.17% 73.2 91.36% -0.456 -1.1001 0.24
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 35.0 42.86% -0.11 0.5251 0.066
Rituals of Terror 3 9 55.56% 108.44 55.56% 0.382
Second Wave 0 106 29.25% 27.89 87.74% 0.159 0.2249
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.567
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.66
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.644
Back Against the Wall 12 41.0 75.0% -0.151
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 72.0 100.0% 0.224 0.434 0.138
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 41.11 44.44% -0.273
Downward Spiral 11 47.09 54.55% -0.063
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% -0.219
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% 0.152
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 42.4 66.67% 0.07
Promising Farmlands 2 44.5 100.0% 0.281 0.734
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% -0.059
Thriving Communities 8 38.25 62.5% 0.221 0.5838 -0.375
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.222
Untended Land Crumbles 16 38.0 56.25% -0.343 -0.0611 0.025

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 344 35.57% 52.64 79.36% 0.443 0.9816 -0.209
Northeast 298 35.69% 53.24 78.86% -0.4 0.235 -0.432
Northwest 279 33.33% 53.65 78.85% -0.042 0.7675 -0.16
Southeast 259 36.82% 50.61 77.22% 0.17 0.8763 0.291
Southwest 217 36.57% 48.96 82.03% -0.083 0.9066 0.549
West 342 35.19% 52.08 79.24% -0.116 0.7875 -0.079

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 32 9.68% 64.41 93.75% 0.234 -0.3836 -0.359
Start of Game Growth 45 13.64% 62.93 93.33% 0.767 0.4185 -0.275
Unlimited Undo 32 12.9% 65.5 96.88% 0.568 0.5616 0.009
Using Tokens but Not Events 68 29.85% 52.82 76.47% 0.253 0.2426 0.092

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 68 20.4 19.12%
II 100 31.01 84.0%
III 134 34.76 94.78%
IV 89 38.07 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 71
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 88
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 21
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 22
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)