Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 71.43% 36.29 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 13 46.15% 60.15 5.191 92.31% 0.035 0.1444
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 77.71 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 54.0 4.011 20.0% 0.02 1.4866
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 60.0% 48.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 66.67% 41.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 0.0% 69.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19 52.63% 66.89 52.63%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 61 19.67% 81.9 10.52 90.16% 0.045 2.3555
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 54.33 0.945 55.56% 0.024 1.9293
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 67.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 40.0% 59.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 71.43% 63.86 -2.582 42.86% -0.423 1.3279
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 75.0% 83.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 100.0% 43.83 -2.582 16.67% -0.423 0.5668
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 17.491 66.67% 0.041 1.6894
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.0 1.899 75.0% 0.031 0.0681
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 42.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 33.33% 76.11 5.191 100.0% 0.035 1.102
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 58.0 3.828 100.0% 0.027 0.3254
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 20.0% 67.8 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 64.29% 100.0 17.491 57.14% 0.041 2.0199

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 34 55.88% 76.74 52.94% -0.379 -0.3589 -0.649
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 79 6.33% 75.05 93.67% 0.024 0.0646 0.286
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 40.83 50.0% 0.272
Rituals of Terror 3 9 55.56% 108.44 55.56% 0.041 -0.2467 0.182
Second Wave 0 102 29.41% 27.69 89.22% 0.074 0.5356
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.634
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.648
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.573
Back Against the Wall 12 41.0 75.0% -0.398 1.239 -0.379
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 41.11 44.44% -0.292
Downward Spiral 11 47.09 54.55% 0.02 1.718 -0.197
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% -0.294
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% -0.054
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 42.4 66.67% 0.062 1.7668 -0.068
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% -0.008
Thriving Communities 7 40.57 57.14% 0.039 1.9093 -0.382
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.199
Untended Land Crumbles 14 42.07 64.29% 0.03 1.8447 -0.093

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 309 37.99% 55.86 84.14% -0.05 0.542 -0.114
Northeast 270 37.92% 56.44 83.7% -0.084 0.5926 -0.441
Northwest 251 35.46% 56.83 83.27% -0.077 0.3604 -0.285
Southeast 230 39.74% 53.89 82.17% -0.047 0.6165 0.361
Southwest 192 38.74% 52.64 88.02% 0.319 1.4903 0.755
West 307 37.58% 55.25 84.04% -0.04 0.7774 -0.236

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 10.0% 64.03 93.55% 0.02 -1.0393 -0.287
Start of Game Growth 42 12.2% 63.07 92.86% 0.02 -0.4024 -0.255
Unlimited Undo 29 14.29% 65.31 96.55% 0.02 -0.3955 -0.068
Using Tokens but Not Events 57 35.71% 54.89 80.7% 0.086 0.2014 -0.032

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 49 22.63 26.53%
II 96 31.12 84.38%
III 128 34.7 95.31%
IV 83 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 114
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 70
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 83
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)