Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 28.22 -5.068 55.56% -0.406 -0.1951
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 42.86% 63.07 12.878 92.86% 0.397 0.3341
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 50.0% 68.0 -7.41 87.5% -0.219 0.0426
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 54.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 50.0% 40.5 -6.627 66.67% -0.184 -0.0088
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 50.0% 31.25 -7.41 50.0% -0.219 -0.0047
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5 0.0% 72.2 15.177 60.0% 0.271 1.2857
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 47.62% 68.95 14.122 57.14% 0.41 1.9524
The Kingdom of England 6 11 62 19.35% 80.58 1.353 88.71% -0.203 1.8159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 -5.762 0.0% -0.304 0.6651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 54.33 4.805 55.56% 0.178 1.2669
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 79.33 21.564 100.0% 0.312 1.6996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 40.0% 59.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 62.5% 55.88 -18.243 37.5% -0.368 0.604
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 75.0% 83.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -11.065 0.0% -0.238 -0.3242
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 42.86% 59.29 6.266 42.86% 0.105 0.4371
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 75.0% 32.88 -11.084 12.5% -0.59 -0.0259
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 59.0 6.088 100.0% 0.192 0.9315
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 38.0 6.364 75.0% 0.225 0.2146
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 33.33% 34.0 -0.577 66.67% -0.105 0.1274
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 42.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 31.0 -3.79 50.0% -0.136 0.4803
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 33.33% 76.11 7.889 100.0% 0.207 1.0121
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 32.67 -8.229 66.67% -0.226 -0.1838
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 50.0% 55.5 12.449 100.0% 0.365 0.6577
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 -9.514 0.0% -0.267 0.8384
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 16.67% 56.5 -2.814 50.0% -0.158 0.8723
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 64.29% 100.0 57.14%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.425 -0.5039 -0.348
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 37 51.35% 75.59 54.05% 0.456 0.2493 -0.232
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 79 6.33% 75.05 93.67% 0.178 -0.428 0.383
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 35.0 42.86% -0.158 0.3305 0.046
Rituals of Terror 3 9 55.56% 108.44 55.56% 0.263
Second Wave 0 105 28.57% 27.97 88.57% 0.486 0.5483
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.538
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.653
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.653
Back Against the Wall 12 41.0 75.0% -0.19
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 41.11 44.44% -0.278
Downward Spiral 11 47.09 54.55% -0.144
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% -0.286
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% 0.082
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 42.4 66.67% 0.207 0.5118 0.049
Promising Farmlands 2 44.5 100.0% 0.192 0.7776
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% -0.022
Thriving Communities 8 38.25 62.5% 0.373 0.8658 -0.399
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.251
Untended Land Crumbles 14 42.07 64.29% 0.028

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 333 35.84% 53.6 80.78% -0.029 0.5755 -0.19
Northeast 291 35.86% 54.29 80.41% -0.314 0.5666 -0.614
Northwest 268 33.58% 54.9 80.6% 0.311 0.9836 -0.112
Southeast 249 37.5% 51.69 78.71% -0.033 0.6036 0.351
Southwest 210 36.36% 49.6 83.33% 0.257 1.4211 0.59
West 331 35.45% 53.03 80.66% -0.221 0.7435 -0.05

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 32 9.68% 64.41 93.75% 0.22 -0.315 -0.354
Start of Game Growth 44 13.95% 63.27 93.18% 0.412 0.0812 -0.266
Unlimited Undo 31 13.33% 64.55 96.77% 0.498 0.4756 -0.1
Using Tokens but Not Events 66 30.77% 52.26 75.76% -0.007 -0.0611 0.008

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 63 21.03 20.63%
II 98 31.04 84.69%
III 130 34.74 95.38%
IV 89 38.02 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 115
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 71
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 88
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 15
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)