Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 100.0% 39.0 -6.542 100.0% 0.028 0.3058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 34.0 -6.385 100.0% 0.016 0.4094
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 49.5 2.759 100.0% 0.027 0.9056
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 4.352 100.0% 0.034 1.5551
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 33.33% 67.17 3.592 83.33% -0.64 1.4095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 36.5 -1.326 100.0% 0.046 0.0869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.689 100.0% 0.042 0.0464
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 50.0% 54.0 2.035 100.0% 0.066 0.3543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 57.33 1.883 100.0% 0.059 0.4268
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 90.0 10.792 100.0% 0.012 0.8415
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -4.238 100.0% 0.009 0.3416
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 -4.65 100.0% 0.01 0.5135
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 55.0 2.287 100.0% 0.017 1.5951
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 33.33% 68.33 3.99 100.0% 0.049 2.1162
The Kingdom of England 6 11 43 13.95% 80.93 8.786 97.67% -0.184 2.0705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 35.5 -3.974 100.0% 0.061 0.5759
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 2.651 100.0% 0.032 2.2173
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 7.79 100.0% 0.033 1.8534
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 84.63 11.471 100.0% 0.133 2.2393
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 29.67 -7.641 100.0% 0.061 0.1453
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -6.272 100.0% 0.006 0.2374
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.735 0.0% -0.746 -0.4601
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 3.806 100.0% 0.014 0.7908
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4 25.0% 71.25 5.226 100.0% 0.055 1.1868
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 5.402 100.0% 0.067 1.1939
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 0.0% 91.5 7.929 100.0% 0.015 1.9199

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -3.906 100.0% 0.123 0.6965
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 91.0 14.304 100.0% 0.114 0.5134
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 51 3.92% 79.92 8.057 98.04% -0.113 0.2529
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 56.33 2.695 100.0% 0.051 0.4921
Second Wave 0 32 15.63% 32.78 -7.665 100.0% 0.413 0.8412
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 2.773 100.0% 0.015 1.0518

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3 42.0 -5.106 100.0% 0.049 2.1219
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 73.6 7.241 100.0% 0.144 2.0628
All Things Weaken 1 54.0 -2.815 100.0% 0.023 2.1823
Back Against the Wall 6 46.5 1.962 100.0% 0.174 2.2681
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -8.461 100.0% 0.034 2.2586
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -1.325 100.0% 0.046 2.0673
Erosion of Will 1 22.0 -16.162 100.0% 0.01 2.2186
Memory Fades to Dust 7 61.71 3.417 100.0% 0.135 2.3535
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 -0.974 100.0% 0.101 2.1218
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -3.022 100.0% 0.009 2.223
Unnatural Proliferation 3 67.0 0.226 66.67% -0.709 1.3808
Untended Land Crumbles 4 49.0 -3.445 75.0% -0.673 1.4323

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 140 27.86% 58.38 -0.226 97.86% -0.033 -1.0133
Northeast 125 27.2% 58.98 1.532 98.4% 0.375 -0.5561
Northwest 118 24.58% 60.35 1.723 97.46% -0.351 -1.3507
Southeast 96 32.29% 56.1 -0.744 96.88% -0.413 -1.439
Southwest 96 29.17% 55.74 -0.709 98.96% 0.529 -0.091
West 140 27.86% 57.97 -4.468 97.86% -0.08 -0.8051

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 6.67% 77.27 2.874 100.0% 0.181 -0.5124
Start of Game Growth 21 9.52% 74.38 4.022 100.0% 0.278 -0.1851
Unlimited Undo 16 6.25% 76.06 2.414 100.0% 0.204 -0.2163
Using Tokens but Not Events 13 38.46% 66.08 0.959 100.0% 0.164 0.1116

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10 22.34 90.0%
II 45 30.81 97.78%
III 51 34.31 98.04%
IV 37 37.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 48
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 39
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 37
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)