Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 71.43% 36.29 -2.372 71.43% 0.087 0.6378
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 -0.661 100.0% 0.257 0.5012
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 36.36% 58.45 3.666 90.91% 0.299 0.4146
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 77.71 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 50.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 100.0% 46.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 60.0% 48.6 -3.159 80.0% 0.035 0.551
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 66.67% 41.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 4.047 100.0% 0.093 1.22
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 0.0% 69.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19 52.63% 66.89 52.63%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 58 18.97% 82.19 6.768 91.38% 0.001 2.2994
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 54.25 -7.566 50.0% -0.935 1.4673
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 67.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 25.0% 45.25 -2.278 0.0% -0.475 2.0008
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 72.73% 85.91 -0.363 81.82% -0.536 1.8311
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 33.33% 45.67 -2.278 0.0% -0.475 0.3955
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 75.0% 64.5 5.679 50.0% -0.12 1.5789
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 -0.276 87.5% 0.108 0.2748
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 -2.775 66.67% -0.293 -0.5163
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -3.727 100.0% 0.082 0.5356
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 42.75 4.047 50.0% 0.093 0.4027
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 14.29% 78.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 4 0.0% 80.0 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 66.67% 90.5 50.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 26 50.0% 78.92 57.69% -0.796 -0.3833 -0.437
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 78 6.41% 75.31 93.59% -0.513 -0.2078 0.481
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 40.83 50.0% 0.22
Rituals of Terror 3 7 57.14% 94.57 42.86% -0.232
Second Wave 0 94 28.72% 27.17 89.36% 0.076 0.6419
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.517
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 61.33 77.78% -0.022 1.7078 0.361
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.536 1.4495 -0.568
Back Against the Wall 9 40.11 77.78% 0.082 1.899 -0.18
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 39.0 50.0% 0.087 2.1369 -0.334
Downward Spiral 8 46.0 62.5% 0.125
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 25.25 75.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 12 58.08 91.67% -0.12
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 39.08 61.54% 0.25 2.188 -0.309
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 56.75 75.0% 0.035 0.4596 -0.048
Thriving Communities 3 62.67 33.33% -0.41
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.243
Untended Land Crumbles 11 44.73 63.64% 0.06 2.0529 -0.167

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 269 34.7% 56.83 85.13% -0.12 0.6487 0.31
Northeast 235 34.62% 57.37 84.68% -0.361 0.4988 -0.543
Northwest 220 30.91% 57.5 84.09% -0.247 0.8301 -0.524
Southeast 196 36.41% 55.32 83.67% 0.143 0.8488 0.365
Southwest 164 36.2% 53.82 87.8% 0.654 1.7794 0.687
West 267 34.21% 56.14 85.02% -0.034 0.9196 -0.257

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 30 6.9% 63.63 93.33% -0.267 -0.4088 -0.204
Start of Game Growth 41 10.0% 62.76 92.68% -0.159 -0.919 -0.186
Unlimited Undo 28 11.11% 64.93 96.43% -0.083 -0.6867 0.04
Using Tokens but Not Events 51 36.0% 52.18 80.39% 0.234 0.0777 -0.089

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43 22.56 30.23%
II 89 30.98 85.39%
III 111 34.53 95.5%
IV 73 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 99
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 67
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 73
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 20
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)