Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.619
Blitz 0 14 50.0% 26.36 57.14% 0.045 0.2622 -0.571
Dahan Insurrection 4 90 45.56% 61.38 44.44% 0.653 0.3996 -0.408
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.119
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 98 6.12% 69.33 83.67% 0.676
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 24.5 30.0% 0.253
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 87.87 53.33% 0.638
Second Wave 0 116 31.9% 27.34 84.48% -0.135 0.0035 -0.175
Ward the Shores 2 3 66.67% 57.67 66.67% -0.282 0.7924 -0.47

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 34.53 40.0% -0.261 -0.0097 -0.71
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 58.93 78.57% 0.636
All Things Weaken 8 61.88 75.0% -0.421
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0% 0.601
Back Against the Wall 15 48.67 80.0% 0.297
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 32.75 25.0% -0.065
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 29.82 36.36% 0.48 0.4907 0.135
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 42.0 46.15% -0.094
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18% -0.34
Erosion of Will 10 27.9 50.0% 0.145 0.419 -0.25
Intensifying Exploitation 5 28.0 0.0% -0.705
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 67.88 75.0% 0.269 -0.3042 1.008
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0% -0.03
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 38.44 61.11% 0.285 0.4896 0.377
Promising Farmlands 6 38.33 50.0% -0.533
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 43.4 40.0% 0.57
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% 0.033
The Border of Life and Death 6 52.0 83.33% 0.079 -0.5212 0.532
Thriving Communities 15 34.47 66.67% 0.271 0.5524 -0.237
Thriving Crops 2 30.0 0.0% -0.153
Unnatural Proliferation 11 63.0 72.73% 0.708
Untended Land Crumbles 18 39.17 50.0% -0.282 -0.0919 -0.16

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 608 34.98% 43.19 63.16% 0.009 0.8836 -0.171
Northeast 533 35.97% 43.57 62.29% -0.034 0.718 -0.441
Northwest 497 33.47% 44.01 62.98% -0.015 0.8776 -0.4
Southeast 459 35.01% 42.39 61.44% -0.104 0.7351 0.429
Southwest 396 34.68% 38.2 63.64% -0.123 1.1817 0.379
West 606 34.77% 42.84 63.04% 0.241 1.1912 0.16

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0% -0.333
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57 5.45% 52.7 68.42% -0.038 -0.6404 -0.724
Start of Game Growth 71 8.7% 53.9 73.24% -0.038 -0.5417 -0.581
Unlimited Undo 77 13.33% 53.71 68.83% 0.565 0.458 0.208
Using Tokens but Not Events 98 23.96% 52.98 70.41% 0.165

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 187 13.42 8.02%
II 155 30.13 73.55%
III 205 34.83 91.22%
IV 108 38.67 99.07%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 168
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 92
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 104
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 124
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 54
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 44
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)