Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 36.0 -7.858 100.0% 0.019 0.2999
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 51.0 4.175 100.0% 0.015 0.8849
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 3.51 100.0% 0.035 1.5632
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 56.0 1.931 66.67% -0.667 1.4029
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1 0.0% 34.0 -5.505 100.0% 0.039 0.0773
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.544 100.0% 0.049 0.054
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 50.0% 54.0 1.728 100.0% 0.078 0.3693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 57.33 1.891 100.0% 0.068 0.429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 90.0 10.499 100.0% 0.014 0.8427
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -3.883 100.0% 0.011 0.3424
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 -4.973 100.0% 0.011 0.511
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 55.0 1.428 100.0% 0.019 1.5974
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 33.33% 68.33 3.741 100.0% 0.062 2.1319
The Kingdom of England 6 11 39 15.38% 80.85 7.74 97.44% -0.168 2.0837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 35.5 -4.03 100.0% 0.066 0.5908
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 1.908 100.0% 0.037 2.2233
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 8.395 100.0% 0.042 1.8653
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 84.63 10.981 100.0% 0.153 2.2685
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 29.67 -8.807 100.0% 0.068 0.1562
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -6.328 100.0% 0.006 0.2293
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.859 0.0% -0.727 -0.4416
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 2.964 100.0% 0.017 0.7842
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4 25.0% 71.25 4.68 100.0% 0.065 1.1973
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 4.994 100.0% 0.081 1.2044

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -4.94 100.0% 0.131 0.7121
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 91.0 13.442 100.0% 0.126 0.5296
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 42 4.76% 79.31 7.035 97.62% -0.13 0.2347
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 56.33 1.993 100.0% 0.058 0.4994
Second Wave 0 23 21.74% 32.91 -8.304 100.0% 0.374 0.7983
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 3.165 100.0% 0.019 1.0607

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2 39.0 -7.142 100.0% 0.039 2.1092
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 81.5 8.147 100.0% 0.146 2.0683
All Things Weaken 1 54.0 -3.649 100.0% 0.024 2.1777
Back Against the Wall 6 46.5 1.24 100.0% 0.194 2.2904
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -8.836 100.0% 0.039 2.265
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -2.394 100.0% 0.052 2.0706
Erosion of Will 1 22.0 -16.755 100.0% 0.011 2.2215
Memory Fades to Dust 7 61.71 2.891 100.0% 0.155 2.37
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.0 -1.825 100.0% 0.114 2.131
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -2.958 100.0% 0.01 2.2234
Unnatural Proliferation 3 67.0 -0.301 66.67% -0.689 1.3974
Untended Land Crumbles 4 49.0 -4.625 75.0% -0.659 1.4369

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 117 31.62% 59.54 -1.307 97.44% -0.031 -0.9907
Northeast 105 30.48% 61.01 1.811 98.1% 0.364 -0.5375
Northwest 99 27.27% 61.04 1.314 96.97% -0.315 -1.2901
Southeast 81 38.27% 57.69 -0.23 96.3% -0.395 -1.3998
Southwest 76 34.21% 57.05 -0.919 98.68% 0.483 -0.1171
West 117 31.62% 59.07 -5.331 97.44% -0.078 -0.7779

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8 12.5% 73.0 1.9 100.0% 0.111 -0.5937
Start of Game Growth 14 14.29% 70.5 3.518 100.0% 0.229 -0.2232
Unlimited Undo 9 11.11% 71.33 1.192 100.0% 0.14 -0.2769
Using Tokens but Not Events 10 50.0% 62.5 0.042 100.0% 0.142 0.0905

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9 22.33 88.89%
II 39 30.75 97.44%
III 38 34.25 97.37%
IV 33 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 33
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 33
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)