Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 28.22 55.56%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 80.0% 29.4 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 31.0 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 17 23.53% 26.88 -3.67 58.82% 0.017 0.2312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 40.91% 56.55 3.803 81.82% 0.009 0.0848
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11 45.45% 58.09 4.019 72.73% 0.146 0.3276
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 33.33% 38.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 80.0% 77.0 -4.563 80.0% -0.176 0.3598
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 87.5% 49.88 14.341 25.0% 0.174 1.4609
The Kingdom of England 0 1 11 54.55% 25.91 36.36%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 33.33% 38.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 78.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 20 15.0% 42.6 5.103 40.0% 0.004 1.1577
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9 11.11% 46.67 6.758 44.44% 0.275 1.3645
The Kingdom of England 5 9 23 47.83% 65.65 52.17%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 81 21.25% 72.33 1.163 74.07% -0.517 1.4651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 44.44% 31.6 70.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 14 14.29% 44.86 9.213 42.86% 0.188 1.1743
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 79.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 42.14 7.249 14.29% 0.054 1.3993
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 39 38.46% 52.41 5.103 30.77% 0.004 0.982
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 19 78.95% 83.74 9.516 73.68% 0.106 1.5282
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 66.67% 26.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 21 57.14% 57.71 28.57%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 11 63.64% 23.91 -9.937 9.09% -0.391 0.2816
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 66.67% 49.77 -5.65 30.77% -0.577 0.4751
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 33.33% 32.56 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 22.22% 25.56 55.56%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 50.0% 29.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 50.0% 36.88 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 20.67 7.249 33.33% 0.054 0.6413
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6 16.67% 4.17 -5.631 0.0% -0.532 0.5566
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 38.1% 42.0 -0.893 52.38% -0.189 0.7558
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 0.0% 24.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 66.67% 27.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 37.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 4.75 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 9.09% 30.82 27.27%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 72.5 -6.501 50.0% -0.337 1.0343
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 35 51.43% 61.83 31.43%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.182 -0.4027 -0.543
Blitz 0 12 50.0% 27.25 58.33% -0.403 -0.1165 -0.466
Dahan Insurrection 4 76 50.0% 60.43 42.11% 0.146 0.0306 -0.42
Despicable Theft 2 5 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.537 0.2015 -1.093
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 97 5.15% 69.89 84.54% 0.419 -0.1622 0.606
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 50.0% 30.63 37.5% 0.28
Rituals of Terror 3 14 42.86% 89.86 57.14% 0.702
Second Wave 0 110 30.0% 27.73 87.27% 0.197 0.2767 -0.145
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 67.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 35.36 45.45% -0.191 -0.0877 -0.69
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 59.75 75.0% 0.611
All Things Weaken 8 61.88 75.0% 0.146 0.5115 -0.402
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0% 0.609
Back Against the Wall 14 43.57 78.57% 0.04
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 59.0 0.0% -0.072
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 50.75 50.0% 0.136
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 41.0 41.67% 0.106 0.4821 -0.228
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18% -0.317 -0.2446 -0.42
Erosion of Will 8 27.0 50.0% -0.222
Intensifying Exploitation 5 28.0 0.0% -0.189 0.0855 -0.648
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 60.86 71.43% 0.848
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0% -0.184 -0.0009 -0.076
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 40.63 62.5% 0.329
Promising Farmlands 3 41.67 66.67% -0.11
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 41.5 25.0% 0.605
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% 0.019
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.493
Thriving Communities 12 33.67 66.67% -0.425
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.181
Untended Land Crumbles 17 39.18 52.94% -0.025

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 511 34.18% 45.58 65.95% 0.132 0.9243 -0.048
Northeast 452 34.67% 45.78 64.6% -0.039 0.8417 -0.409
Northwest 420 33.17% 46.58 65.48% 0.208 1.0787 -0.271
Southeast 385 33.42% 44.34 64.42% -0.013 0.8456 0.353
Southwest 325 34.57% 40.39 67.08% -0.114 1.0955 0.217
West 509 33.93% 45.18 65.82% -0.202 0.8586 0.117

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0% -0.24 0.4755 -0.297
Skip Initial Invader Actions 50 6.25% 58.36 76.0% 0.038 -0.5288 -0.623
Start of Game Growth 64 9.68% 58.45 79.69% 0.038 -0.6259 -0.478
Unlimited Undo 58 7.14% 58.24 74.14% 0.038 0.0616 0.013
Using Tokens but Not Events 96 24.47% 53.1 69.79% -0.227 -0.179 0.22

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 155 15.45 9.68%
II 140 30.45 78.57%
III 165 34.8 93.33%
IV 98 38.47 98.98%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 141
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 90
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 96
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 93
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 45
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 34
Lose: Blight pool ran out 36
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)