Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.239 -0.2241 -0.54
Blitz 0 11 54.55% 29.73 63.64% 0.147 0.4352 -0.464
Dahan Insurrection 4 76 50.0% 60.43 42.11% -0.238 -0.4144 -0.423
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.316 0.545 -0.994
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33% -0.221 0.7119
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 92 5.43% 69.68 84.78% 0.085 -0.5612 0.467
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 50.0% 30.63 37.5% 0.288
Rituals of Terror 3 14 42.86% 89.86 57.14% 0.064 0.1401 0.684
Second Wave 0 110 30.0% 27.73 87.27% 0.627 0.657 -0.132
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 67.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 35.36 45.45% -0.231 -0.0559 -0.693
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 59.75 75.0% -0.108 -0.1618 0.609
All Things Weaken 8 61.88 75.0% 0.619 0.9124 -0.332
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0% -0.097 -0.0129 0.591
Back Against the Wall 14 43.57 78.57% 0.013
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 59.0 0.0% -0.039 0.1645 -0.07
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 50.75 50.0% -0.038 0.1495 0.126
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 41.0 41.67% -0.094 0.3151 -0.431
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18% -0.159 -0.0315 -0.403
Erosion of Will 8 27.0 50.0% -0.216
Intensifying Exploitation 4 35.0 0.0% -0.632
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 60.86 71.43% 0.589 0.0738 0.848
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0% -0.19 0.0471 -0.097
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 40.63 62.5% 0.344
Promising Farmlands 3 41.67 66.67% -0.116
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 41.5 25.0% 0.613
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.079 0.3055
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% -0.035 -0.616 0.008
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.456
Thriving Communities 12 33.67 66.67% 0.246 0.5849 -0.437
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0% -0.148 -0.1899
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.169
Untended Land Crumbles 17 39.18 52.94% -0.215 0.2334 -0.03

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 499 34.74% 45.57 66.13% 0.183 1.0288 -0.077
Northeast 440 35.31% 45.77 64.77% 0.17 0.9407 -0.384
Northwest 412 33.5% 46.52 65.78% 0.027 0.8341 -0.279
Southeast 376 34.13% 44.08 64.36% 0.03 0.8998 0.364
Southwest 318 35.02% 40.61 67.3% -0.097 1.1844 0.277
West 497 34.48% 45.15 66.0% -0.345 0.651 0.056

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 45 6.82% 57.27 77.78% -0.037 -0.6519 -0.593
Start of Game Growth 59 10.34% 57.63 81.36% -0.037 -0.6189 -0.452
Unlimited Undo 53 7.69% 57.3 75.47% -0.037 0.0065 0.013
Using Tokens but Not Events 91 25.56% 52.27 70.33% 0.02 -0.0382 0.212

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 151 15.74 9.93%
II 133 30.48 78.2%
III 164 34.79 93.29%
IV 98 38.41 98.98%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 140
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 84
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 96
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 89
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 45
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 34
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)