Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 37.75 -4.997 75.0% -0.246 0.0428
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 45.0 -1.32 100.0% 0.047 0.461
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 0.32 100.0% 0.101 0.9839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 5.313 100.0% 0.059 1.5558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 25.0% 69.5 4.674 87.5% -0.514 1.5284
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 39.5 -1.981 100.0% 0.195 0.2367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 1.095 100.0% 0.107 0.121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 57.0 3.755 100.0% 0.247 0.53
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 57.33 1.614 100.0% 0.14 0.4993
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 50.0% 85.0 14.058 100.0% 0.231 1.0555
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 33.0 -8.28 0.0% -0.538 0.7012
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -4.906 100.0% 0.022 0.3514
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 -4.437 100.0% 0.019 0.5354
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 2.885 66.67% -0.324 1.2557
The Kingdom of England 5 9 15 46.67% 56.6 0.447 53.33% -1.197 0.8731
The Kingdom of England 6 11 48 14.58% 81.33 8.847 97.92% -0.024 2.22
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 42.0 -3.07 100.0% 0.234 0.7459
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 25.0% 63.75 2.183 75.0% -0.553 1.5877
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 4.1 100.0% 0.069 2.2677
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 8.93 100.0% 0.101 1.9187
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 84.63 11.771 100.0% 0.294 2.3851
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 31.0 -6.551 100.0% 0.166 0.2551
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -3.041 100.0% 0.154 0.3912
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.529 0.0% -0.615 -0.3248
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 6.661 100.0% 0.106 0.8868
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 20.0% 71.2 6.018 100.0% 0.251 1.3733
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 50.0 -1.57 100.0% 0.009 -0.0793
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 5.588 100.0% 0.1 1.2077
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 70.33 3.837 66.67% -0.728 1.144

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -3.77 100.0% 0.452 1.0181
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 91.0 14.557 100.0% 0.288 0.6879
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 -8.871 100.0% 0.03 0.533
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 63 4.76% 78.75 8.722 98.41% 0.613 0.9775
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 60.0% 44.0 -1.681 60.0% -0.613 -0.1664
Second Wave 0 36 16.67% 32.42 -7.293 97.22% 0.563 0.9927
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 3.19 100.0% 0.038 1.0701

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4 37.25 -5.455 75.0% -0.51 1.5592
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 73.33 7.657 100.0% 0.243 2.1558
All Things Weaken 2 56.0 2.071 100.0% 0.384 2.5435
Back Against the Wall 8 43.88 -0.568 87.5% -0.264 1.8234
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -9.271 100.0% 0.027 2.249
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -0.345 100.0% 0.221 2.2425
Erosion of Will 2 20.5 -12.591 50.0% -0.348 1.8599
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 35.0 -4.49 100.0% 0.002 0.6812
Memory Fades to Dust 10 60.2 2.311 90.0% -0.052 2.1632
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 46.0 -1.326 71.43% -0.348 1.6735
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -3.384 100.0% 0.015 2.223
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 34.0 -11.318 0.0% -0.499 -0.0873
Unnatural Proliferation 4 70.25 3.339 75.0% -0.386 1.695
Untended Land Crumbles 7 54.14 0.608 71.43% -0.451 1.6508

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 188 30.32% 57.09 0.638 92.02% -0.059 -0.6353
Northeast 167 30.54% 57.66 1.117 92.81% 0.156 -0.3683
Northwest 156 26.28% 58.67 1.509 91.67% -0.257 -0.8525
Southeast 134 33.58% 54.69 -0.997 90.3% -0.429 -1.0584
Southwest 123 32.52% 55.45 -0.431 93.5% 0.386 0.1875
West 187 29.95% 56.99 -2.473 92.51% 0.244 -0.0831

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 8.33% 68.88 1.97 100.0% 0.458 -0.2283
Start of Game Growth 31 9.68% 68.81 3.517 100.0% 0.684 0.2146
Unlimited Undo 24 8.33% 68.96 2.177 100.0% 0.462 0.0393
Using Tokens but Not Events 29 44.83% 61.0 1.339 72.41% -0.876 -0.9266

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23 22.37 52.17%
II 56 30.88 96.43%
III 65 34.39 96.92%
IV 47 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 61
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 49
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 47
Lose: Adversary condition 8
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)