Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.623
Blitz 0 14 50.0% 26.36 57.14% -0.571
Dahan Insurrection 4 91 45.05% 60.7 43.96% -0.058 -0.3068 -0.378
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.154
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 105 5.71% 69.34 81.9% 0.043 -0.51 0.714
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 24.5 30.0% 0.284
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 87.87 53.33% 0.653
Second Wave 0 116 31.9% 27.34 84.48% -0.227 -0.1095 -0.167
Ward the Shores 2 3 66.67% 57.67 66.67% -0.218 0.8661 -0.452

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 34.53 40.0% -0.317 -0.0673 -0.715
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 58.93 78.57% 0.65
All Things Weaken 8 61.88 75.0% -0.498
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0% 0.596
Back Against the Wall 15 48.67 80.0% 0.336
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 32.75 25.0% -0.058
Burn Brightest Before the End 12 29.83 41.67% 0.405 0.3869 0.162
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 42.0 46.15% -0.073
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18% -0.343
Erosion of Will 10 27.9 50.0% 0.12 0.472 -0.247
Intensifying Exploitation 5 28.0 0.0% -0.697
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 67.88 75.0% 1.021
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0% -0.03
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 38.44 61.11% 0.309
Promising Farmlands 6 38.33 50.0% -0.505
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 44.33 50.0% 0.102 0.1789 0.573
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% 0.017
The Border of Life and Death 6 52.0 83.33% -0.079 -0.6796 0.642
Thriving Communities 15 34.47 66.67% 0.185 0.5417 -0.243
Thriving Crops 2 30.0 0.0% -0.138
Unnatural Proliferation 11 63.0 72.73% 0.722
Untended Land Crumbles 19 39.42 52.63% -0.003 0.2281 -0.173

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 623 34.62% 43.3 63.4% 0.126 1.029 -0.149
Northeast 547 35.41% 43.68 62.52% -0.155 0.6527 -0.47
Northwest 512 33.07% 44.13 63.28% -0.08 0.8201 -0.371
Southeast 472 34.26% 42.59 61.65% -0.213 0.6378 0.393
Southwest 400 35.09% 38.13 63.75% 0.165 1.5403 0.341
West 621 34.41% 42.96 63.29% 0.187 1.1415 0.215

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0% -0.344
Skip Initial Invader Actions 64 4.84% 54.55 67.19% -0.226 -0.8104 -0.701
Start of Game Growth 78 7.89% 55.31 71.79% -0.226 -0.7396 -0.547
Unlimited Undo 84 12.2% 55.04 67.86% 0.31 0.2002 0.22
Using Tokens but Not Events 103 22.77% 55.14 70.87% 0.705 0.6792 0.315

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 194 13.33 9.28%
II 156 30.1 73.72%
III 207 34.83 91.3%
IV 113 38.67 99.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 170
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 93
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 109
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 128
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 54
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 42
Lose: Blight pool ran out 44
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)