Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 37.75 -5.136 75.0% -0.265 0.019
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 45.0 -0.356 100.0% 0.074 0.4846
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 49.5 2.853 100.0% 0.074 0.9507
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 4.907 100.0% 0.061 1.5627
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 28.57% 68.29 4.146 85.71% -0.578 1.4646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 39.5 -2.118 100.0% 0.184 0.2258
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.957 100.0% 0.071 0.0837
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 57.0 3.571 100.0% 0.192 0.4796
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 57.33 1.534 100.0% 0.123 0.4902
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 50.0% 85.0 14.038 100.0% 0.146 0.9721
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -5.431 100.0% 0.006 0.3382
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 -4.537 100.0% 0.009 0.5231
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 2.679 66.67% -0.306 1.2732
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 44.44% 60.33 0.642 66.67% -0.991 1.0823
The Kingdom of England 6 11 47 14.89% 81.26 9.023 97.87% -0.084 2.1636
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 42.0 -3.164 100.0% 0.251 0.7645
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 77.0 6.795 100.0% 0.016 2.1587
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 3.474 100.0% 0.069 2.2649
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 8.4 100.0% 0.071 1.8882
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 84.63 11.76 100.0% 0.2 2.2971
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 31.0 -6.84 100.0% 0.148 0.2332
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -6.409 100.0% 0.021 0.2558
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.629 0.0% -0.615 -0.3281
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 5.216 100.0% 0.025 0.8086
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 20.0% 71.2 5.536 100.0% 0.108 1.2318
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 50.0 -1.983 100.0% 0.007 -0.0949
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 5.775 100.0% 0.14 1.2563
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 70.33 3.546 66.67% -0.716 1.162

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -4.234 100.0% 0.291 0.8602
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 91.0 13.867 100.0% 0.127 0.5248
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 -8.994 100.0% 0.031 0.495
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 58 3.45% 79.24 8.575 98.28% 0.42 0.787
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 47.0 0.548 75.0% -0.282 0.1628
Second Wave 0 36 16.67% 32.42 -7.656 97.22% 0.395 0.8239
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 3.657 100.0% 0.038 1.0722

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4 37.25 -5.553 75.0% -0.454 1.619
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 73.33 7.416 100.0% 0.211 2.1292
All Things Weaken 2 56.0 1.658 100.0% 0.314 2.4838
Back Against the Wall 8 43.88 -0.617 87.5% -0.249 1.8426
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -9.369 100.0% 0.022 2.247
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -1.011 100.0% 0.102 2.1245
Erosion of Will 2 20.5 -13.648 50.0% -0.368 1.8413
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 35.0 -4.481 100.0% 0.008 0.6945
Memory Fades to Dust 9 59.0 1.828 88.89% -0.234 1.9844
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 51.0 0.092 100.0% 0.314 2.3376
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -3.437 100.0% 0.024 2.238
Unnatural Proliferation 4 70.25 3.375 75.0% -0.561 1.5259
Untended Land Crumbles 6 47.83 -3.329 66.67% -0.875 1.2305

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 173 30.06% 57.49 -0.072 94.8% -0.081 -0.7304
Northeast 153 30.07% 57.99 0.896 95.42% 0.071 -0.5277
Northwest 145 25.52% 59.16 1.557 94.48% -0.237 -0.9064
Southeast 122 34.43% 54.93 -0.978 93.44% -0.386 -1.092
Southwest 115 32.17% 55.77 -0.301 95.65% 0.378 0.1049
West 172 29.65% 57.38 -2.264 95.35% 0.289 -0.1096

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 9.09% 69.05 2.068 100.0% 0.35 -0.3369
Start of Game Growth 29 10.34% 68.93 3.599 100.0% 0.607 0.1372
Unlimited Undo 23 8.7% 68.57 1.788 100.0% 0.364 -0.0559
Using Tokens but Not Events 21 42.86% 64.38 1.465 85.71% -0.565 -0.6171

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16 22.35 68.75%
II 53 30.84 96.23%
III 61 34.35 96.72%
IV 46 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 11
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 46
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 46
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)