Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 28.22 55.56%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 25.0% 38.75 -3.317 75.0% -0.118 0.6935
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 0.0% 42.22 6.17 100.0% 0.128 0.3442
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 0.0 -7.268 0.0% -0.182 -0.2524
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 47.06% 63.0 94.12%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 50.0% 68.0 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 54.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 50.0% 40.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6 33.33% 39.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 78.33 6.17 100.0% 0.128 0.8612
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 34.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6 0.0% 60.17 -6.857 50.0% -0.198 1.0829
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 47.62% 68.95 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 71 19.72% 76.75 14.372 81.69% 0.204 2.1989
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 42.86% 31.25 -8.154 75.0% -0.144 0.2699
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 15.38% 43.77 0.48 38.46% -0.256 0.8466
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 79.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 42.14 -6.857 14.29% -0.198 1.3163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 18 72.22% 60.72 14.007 33.33% 0.167 0.9516
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 15 80.0% 81.6 7.763 80.0% 0.306 1.7825
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -7.268 0.0% -0.182 0.2024
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 17 64.71% 62.41 14.007 35.29% 0.167 0.4401
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 8 75.0% 32.88 12.5%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 0.0% 25.33 -4.587 50.0% -0.232 -0.1362
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 33.33% 34.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 40.0% 34.2 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 20.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 0.0 -5.602 0.0% -0.377 0.6093
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 45.45% 75.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 32.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 37.0 -3.317 66.67% -0.118 0.2759
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 50.0% 9.5 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 12.5% 42.38 -4.312 37.5% -0.082 0.8765
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 52.38% 80.0 42.86%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.38
Blitz 0 6 33.33% 33.17 83.33% -0.177 -0.0664
Dahan Insurrection 4 52 51.92% 72.83 51.92% 0.174 -0.061 -0.281
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.082 0.5613 -0.546
Elemental Invocation 1 4 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81 6.17% 73.2 91.36% 0.283
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 35.0 42.86% 0.106
Rituals of Terror 3 12 41.67% 92.0 58.33% -0.066 -0.0497 0.275
Second Wave 0 107 29.91% 27.93 87.85%
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.549
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.753
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.601
Attenuated Essence 1 122.0 100.0% 0.167 0.2415 0.595
Back Against the Wall 12 41.0 75.0% -0.262
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 48.67 66.67% 0.181 0.3043 0.001
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10 43.8 50.0% -0.27
Downward Spiral 13 47.46 46.15% -0.349
Erosion of Will 7 25.14 42.86% -0.231
Intensifying Exploitation 3 46.67 0.0% -0.493
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 45.17 66.67% 0.356
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% 0.059
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 42.4 66.67% 0.111
Promising Farmlands 2 44.5 100.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 124.0 100.0% 0.593
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% -0.062
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.306 -0.1272 0.469
Thriving Communities 9 36.22 66.67% 0.257 0.5556 -0.364
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.153
Untended Land Crumbles 16 38.0 56.25% -0.07

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 396 35.44% 51.03 75.51% 0.056 0.8255 -0.261
Northeast 348 35.73% 51.35 74.71% 0.113 0.9004 -0.461
Northwest 319 33.86% 52.8 75.86% 0.517 1.5006 -0.133
Southeast 299 36.58% 49.03 72.91% -0.583 0.2912 0.373
Southwest 251 34.4% 46.33 77.29% -0.514 0.6933 0.286
West 394 35.11% 50.54 75.38% 0.385 1.3196 0.153

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 33 9.38% 62.45 90.91% -0.198 -0.8327 -0.494
Start of Game Growth 47 13.04% 61.36 91.49% -0.198 -0.5872 -0.404
Unlimited Undo 41 10.0% 59.88 85.37% -0.031 0.013 0.055
Using Tokens but Not Events 73 27.78% 53.85 78.08% 0.204 0.1773 0.067

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 92 17.67 15.22%
II 111 30.7 82.88%
III 147 34.75 95.24%
IV 93 38.22 98.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 74
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 92
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 34
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 35
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 28
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)