Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 9 55.56% 28.22 55.56%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 25.0% 38.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 21.43% 30.14 -3.456 64.29% -0.598 -0.3916
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2 0.0% 0.0 -6.355 0.0% -0.117 -0.1073
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 47.06% 63.0 94.12%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 50.0% 68.0 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 20.0% 46.2 -7.07 80.0% -0.233 0.0644
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 100.0% 54.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10 60.0% 28.5 -1.795 40.0% -0.286 0.0383
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 34.5 -0.109 62.5% 0.238 0.5327
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 78.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 13 23.08% 38.23 1.227 38.46% -0.071 1.165
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7 0.0% 51.57 -0.367 42.86% -0.08 1.1008
The Kingdom of England 5 9 21 47.62% 68.95 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 72 19.44% 77.07 14.766 81.94% 0.249 2.1905
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 42.86% 31.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 15.38% 43.77 38.46%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 79.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 42.14 14.29%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 30 46.67% 52.3 2.156 30.0% -0.362 0.4855
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 15 80.0% 81.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 20 60.0% 58.8 3.356 30.0% -0.291 0.1208
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 66.67% 29.22 -6.355 11.11% -0.117 0.769
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 29.5 -4.605 50.0% -0.213 0.5959
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 33.33% 32.56 4.667 88.89% 0.412 0.5613
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 0.0% 25.33 -5.671 50.0% -0.103 0.0241
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 50.0% 29.0 -6.815 50.0% -0.274 -0.0756
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 50.0% 28.5 -5.553 33.33% -0.133 0.2846
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 20.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 12 41.67% 68.75 0.953 91.67% -0.055 0.9358
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 0.0% 32.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 66.67% 27.67 -0.953 66.67% 0.11 1.0584
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 33.33% 37.0 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 6.33 -7.412 0.0% -0.147 0.9634
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 10.0% 33.9 -5.257 30.0% -0.245 0.7635
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 52.38% 80.0 42.86%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.233 -0.4189 -0.381
Blitz 0 8 50.0% 26.63 62.5% -0.407 -0.2755 -0.271
Dahan Insurrection 4 53 50.94% 73.34 52.83% 0.249 -0.006 -0.22
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.505
Elemental Invocation 1 5 20.0% 39.6 100.0% 0.287 1.1433
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 90 5.56% 69.89 85.56% -0.071 -0.842 0.266
Powers Long Forgotten 1 8 50.0% 30.63 37.5% -0.146 0.7889 0.132
Rituals of Terror 3 12 41.67% 92.0 58.33% 0.345 0.4412 0.337
Second Wave 0 107 29.91% 27.93 87.85%
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.57
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.792
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.549
Attenuated Essence 1 122.0 100.0% 0.572
Back Against the Wall 12 41.0 75.0% -0.271
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 48.67 66.67% -0.014
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10 43.8 50.0% -0.315
Downward Spiral 14 46.93 50.0% 0.287 0.4526 -0.315
Erosion of Will 8 27.0 50.0% 0.385 0.5994 -0.225
Intensifying Exploitation 4 35.0 0.0% -0.133 0.1085 -0.688
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 45.17 66.67% 0.352
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% 0.1
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 40.63 62.5% -0.274 -0.1127 0.189
Promising Farmlands 3 41.67 66.67% -0.092 0.2044 -0.124
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 41.5 25.0% -0.186 -0.0979 0.601
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% -0.052
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.59
Thriving Communities 9 36.22 66.67% -0.395
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.14
Untended Land Crumbles 16 38.0 56.25% -0.024

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 430 34.5% 48.94 71.86% 0.039 1.0273 -0.289
Northeast 377 34.57% 49.14 70.82% -0.375 0.5741 -0.531
Northwest 348 33.05% 50.8 72.41% 0.618 1.6596 -0.062
Southeast 326 34.77% 47.19 69.33% -0.273 0.6449 0.354
Southwest 271 34.44% 43.99 73.43% -0.184 1.2731 0.351
West 428 34.19% 48.47 71.73% 0.149 1.2561 0.136

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 42 7.32% 57.67 78.57% -0.071 -0.6934 -0.556
Start of Game Growth 56 10.91% 57.95 82.14% -0.071 -0.4832 -0.458
Unlimited Undo 51 8.0% 57.18 76.47% 0.178 0.0831 -0.025
Using Tokens but Not Events 83 25.61% 51.88 72.29% -0.204 -0.128 0.071

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 111 16.77 12.61%
II 120 30.59 82.5%
III 153 34.74 93.46%
IV 93 38.3 98.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 92
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 51
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 29
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)