Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 37.75 -5.083 75.0% -0.29 -0.0081
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 45.0 -0.747 100.0% 0.046 0.4527
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 49.5 2.883 100.0% 0.059 0.9341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 57.0 5.344 100.0% 0.085 1.5868
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 28.57% 68.29 4.078 85.71% -0.599 1.444
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 39.5 -2.217 100.0% 0.142 0.1839
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 50.0% 52.0 0.961 100.0% 0.047 0.0574
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 57.0 3.597 100.0% 0.186 0.474
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 33.33% 57.33 1.745 100.0% 0.102 0.4693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 50.0% 85.0 13.892 100.0% 0.109 0.9337
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 36.0 -5.423 100.0% 0.005 0.3373
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 -4.224 100.0% 0.009 0.522
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 2.767 66.67% -0.329 1.2496
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 50.0% 66.67 2.882 83.33% -0.56 1.511
The Kingdom of England 6 11 44 13.64% 81.36 8.985 97.73% -0.165 2.0833
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 42.0 -3.079 100.0% 0.238 0.7518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 77.0 6.867 100.0% 0.017 2.1585
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 100.0% 57.0 2.733 100.0% 0.05 2.247
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 33.33% 86.0 8.144 100.0% 0.032 1.8456
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 84.63 11.705 100.0% 0.163 2.2603
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 50.0% 31.0 -6.687 100.0% 0.15 0.2353
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 -6.442 100.0% 0.01 0.2446
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 22.0 -13.586 0.0% -0.602 -0.3152
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 5.392 100.0% 0.025 0.8067
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5 20.0% 71.2 5.725 100.0% 0.103 1.2279
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 50.0 -1.743 100.0% 0.009 -0.0947
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 0.0% 69.0 5.902 100.0% 0.151 1.2662
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 70.33 3.216 66.67% -0.697 1.1825

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 4 50.0% 40.5 -4.642 100.0% 0.218 0.7868
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 91.0 13.8 100.0% 0.097 0.4952
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 -8.853 100.0% 0.035 0.4995
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 56 3.57% 79.09 8.542 98.21% 0.328 0.6944
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 47.0 0.533 75.0% -0.3 0.1456
Second Wave 0 36 16.67% 32.42 -7.543 97.22% 0.348 0.7765
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 2.828 100.0% 0.015 1.048

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4 37.25 -5.74 75.0% -0.498 1.5758
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 73.6 6.817 100.0% 0.178 2.0975
All Things Weaken 2 56.0 1.294 100.0% 0.273 2.4438
Back Against the Wall 8 43.88 -0.45 87.5% -0.228 1.8631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 30.0 -9.159 100.0% 0.023 2.2485
Downward Spiral 3 45.33 -1.031 100.0% 0.078 2.1007
Erosion of Will 2 20.5 -13.535 50.0% -0.372 1.8376
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 35.0 -3.884 100.0% 0.011 0.6972
Memory Fades to Dust 9 59.0 1.414 88.89% -0.41 1.8089
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 51.0 -0.32 100.0% 0.237 2.26
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 -3.187 100.0% 0.02 2.2337
Unnatural Proliferation 4 70.25 3.13 75.0% -0.646 1.4403
Untended Land Crumbles 5 50.4 -1.978 80.0% -0.654 1.4524

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 167 29.94% 57.26 -0.061 95.81% -0.079 -0.7515
Northeast 147 29.93% 57.76 1.202 96.6% 0.283 -0.3409
Northwest 140 25.71% 59.06 1.88 95.71% -0.118 -0.811
Southeast 119 33.61% 54.71 -1.15 94.12% -0.653 -1.3821
Southwest 111 32.43% 55.41 -0.51 96.4% 0.313 0.0173
West 166 29.52% 57.15 -2.417 96.39% 0.287 -0.1338

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 9.09% 69.05 1.994 100.0% 0.323 -0.3656
Start of Game Growth 29 10.34% 68.93 3.489 100.0% 0.542 0.0727
Unlimited Undo 23 8.7% 68.57 1.71 100.0% 0.338 -0.0822
Using Tokens but Not Events 18 44.44% 67.17 2.354 94.44% -0.23 -0.2819

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13 22.35 76.92%
II 52 30.84 96.15%
III 60 34.35 96.67%
IV 45 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 56
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 45
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 45
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)