Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 71.43% 36.29 71.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 36.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 40.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 27.27% 75.09 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 39.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 12 41.67% 59.33 3.718 91.67% 0.12 0.3098
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 77.71 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 25.0% 57.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 66.67% 107.33 15.15 100.0% 0.136 1.303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 100.0% 48.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 60.0% 48.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 66.67% 41.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 100.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 0.0% 69.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 19 52.63% 66.89 52.63%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 60 20.0% 81.55 8.397 90.0% -0.193 2.3703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 50.0% 43.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 54.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 100.0% 67.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 40.0% 59.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 71.43% 63.86 -2.891 42.86% -0.49 1.5749
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 75.0% 83.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 100.0% 43.83 -2.891 16.67% -0.49 0.7272
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 66.67% 80.83 24.305 66.67% 0.107 1.6649
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 32.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 33.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 50.0% 42.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 25.0% 76.88 3.718 100.0% 0.12 1.2788
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 58.0 2.398 100.0% 0.16 0.5964
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 20.0% 67.8 -10.453 60.0% -0.43 0.7125
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 145.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 64.29% 100.0 20.824 57.14% 0.244 2.2142

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 40.0% 39.8 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 33 57.58% 75.94 51.52% -0.308 -0.2112 -0.645
Elemental Invocation 1 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 78 6.41% 75.31 93.59% 0.302
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 40.83 50.0% 0.275
Rituals of Terror 3 9 55.56% 108.44 55.56% 0.244 0.0075 0.183
Second Wave 0 99 29.29% 27.46 88.89% -0.018 0.6743
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 79.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 36.56 55.56% -0.627
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 65.18 81.82% 0.689
All Things Weaken 6 45.67 66.67% -0.554
Back Against the Wall 11 42.82 72.73% -0.135 1.8041 -0.36
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9 41.11 44.44% -0.416 1.7124 -0.27
Downward Spiral 10 44.2 50.0% -0.475 1.4861 -0.183
Erosion of Will 5 18.6 40.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% -0.302
Memory Fades to Dust 14 63.93 85.71% -0.014 2.1274 -0.061
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 40.43 64.29% 0.16 2.1404 -0.272
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 49.4 80.0% 0.098 0.5942 0.025
Thriving Communities 5 47.6 40.0% 0.076 2.1348 -0.353
Unnatural Proliferation 7 69.29 71.43% 0.2
Untended Land Crumbles 13 43.92 61.54% -0.361 1.6726 -0.008

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 297 37.5% 56.37 83.5% -0.223 0.4386 0.164
Northeast 261 37.31% 57.1 83.14% 0.266 0.9261 -0.465
Northwest 242 34.71% 57.1 82.64% -0.15 0.4609 -0.383
Southeast 220 39.27% 54.56 81.36% -0.133 0.3981 0.317
Southwest 180 37.99% 53.27 87.22% 0.252 1.2207 0.657
West 295 37.07% 55.75 83.39% 0.003 0.8089 -0.251

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 30 6.9% 63.63 93.33% -0.309
Start of Game Growth 41 10.0% 62.76 92.68% -0.283
Unlimited Undo 28 11.11% 64.93 96.43% -0.081
Using Tokens but Not Events 56 36.36% 54.04 80.36% 0.403 0.558 -0.031

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 49 22.65 26.53%
II 93 31.08 83.87%
III 123 34.66 95.12%
IV 79 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 109
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 68
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 79
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)