Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.617
Blitz 0 14 50.0% 26.36 57.14% 0.078 0.2923 -0.544
Dahan Insurrection 4 87 47.13% 61.3 43.68% 0.228 -0.0605 -0.455
Despicable Theft 2 6 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -1.131
Elemental Invocation 1 6 16.67% 33.0 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 98 6.12% 69.33 83.67% -0.261 -0.8609 0.564
Powers Long Forgotten 1 10 40.0% 24.5 30.0% 0.255
Rituals of Terror 3 15 46.67% 87.87 53.33% 0.569
Second Wave 0 113 30.09% 27.51 85.84% 0.23 0.4797 -0.216
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 67.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 14 34.79 42.86% 0.332 0.4042 -0.461
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 58.93 78.57% 0.14 0.0695 0.61
All Things Weaken 8 61.88 75.0% -0.416
Attenuated Essence 2 61.0 50.0% 0.587
Back Against the Wall 15 48.67 80.0% 0.081 0.1343 0.311
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 32.75 25.0% -0.067
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 30.67 22.22% -0.196 -0.1797 0.138
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 42.0 46.15% -0.097
Downward Spiral 17 40.76 41.18% -0.373
Erosion of Will 8 27.0 50.0% -0.267
Intensifying Exploitation 5 28.0 0.0% -0.716
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 67.88 75.0% 0.081 -0.5335 0.988
Memory Fades to Dust 16 59.13 75.0% -0.029
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 38.44 61.11% -0.027 0.1474 0.374
Promising Farmlands 6 38.33 50.0% -0.031 0.1671 -0.532
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 43.4 40.0% 0.548
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 41.17 66.67% 0.033
The Border of Life and Death 4 64.75 100.0% 0.54
Thriving Communities 14 32.21 64.29% -0.493
Thriving Crops 2 30.0 0.0% -0.154
Unnatural Proliferation 11 63.0 72.73% 0.73
Untended Land Crumbles 17 39.18 52.94% 0.049

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 33 30.3% 22.85 84.85%
B 29 24.14% 24.1 89.66%
C 33 24.24% 23.76 84.85%
D 34 29.41% 22.53 88.24%
E 31 25.81% 22.23 87.1%
F 37 27.03% 23.27 86.49%
G 40 27.5% 22.7 82.5%
H 36 30.56% 22.69 80.56%
East 592 34.41% 43.52 63.68% 0.382 1.191 -0.007
Northeast 519 35.2% 43.92 62.81% 0.162 0.96 -0.445
Northwest 483 32.57% 44.47 63.56% 0.422 1.156 -0.411
Southeast 448 34.75% 42.56 62.05% -0.187 0.7068 0.379
Southwest 385 34.38% 38.36 63.9% -0.712 0.5461 0.302
West 590 34.18% 43.17 63.56% -0.095 0.9024 0.142

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 48.0 50.0% -0.316
Skip Initial Invader Actions 56 5.56% 53.64 69.64% -0.353 -1.1224 -0.688
Start of Game Growth 70 8.82% 54.67 74.29% -0.353 -0.7911 -0.549
Unlimited Undo 73 11.27% 54.56 69.86% 0.295 0.2294 0.205
Using Tokens but Not Events 98 23.96% 52.98 70.41% 0.115

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 181 13.76 8.29%
II 151 30.19 74.83%
III 204 34.82 91.18%
IV 103 38.63 99.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 168
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 92
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 101
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 119
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 52
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 40
Lose: Blight pool ran out 42
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)