Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 52 21.15% 40.5 -1.385 92.31% -0.037 0.2465
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 44 23.26% 43.75 0.433 86.36% -0.448 -0.0534
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 77 40.26% 47.32 3.315 83.12% -0.639 0.2223
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 64 51.56% 45.5 1.093 62.5% -1.937 -0.6871
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 84 64.29% 46.35 1.055 55.95% -2.732 -1.1975
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 31 64.52% 49.68 2.856 54.84% -2.115 -0.0468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 45 62.22% 44.51 -0.39 35.56% -3.623 -1.5453
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 300 21.0% 36.06 -3.204 94.33% 0.625 0.6681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 160 39.87% 37.01 -1.893 85.63% -0.061 -0.0869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 321 44.73% 48.13 2.66 88.47% 0.058 0.0577
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 239 40.76% 54.92 5.734 85.77% -0.334 -0.0416
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 266 43.77% 57.05 5.945 85.71% -0.47 -0.0995
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 129 31.01% 64.32 7.595 80.62% -1.444 -0.6063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 255 70.87% 57.65 5.653 54.51% -2.192 -0.9431
The Kingdom of England 0 1 205 21.46% 31.68 -5.701 76.59% -1.205 -0.8741
The Kingdom of England 1 3 146 42.76% 41.04 -0.676 73.97% -0.99 -0.5002
The Kingdom of England 2 4 212 47.6% 38.4 -2.13 59.91% -1.857 -0.8926
The Kingdom of England 3 6 275 51.27% 37.25 -3.1 39.27% -2.953 -1.3728
The Kingdom of England 4 7 247 49.8% 48.89 0.747 56.28% -2.607 -1.0926
The Kingdom of England 5 9 186 22.04% 64.98 6.967 73.66% -2.607 -0.5363
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1130 27.52% 66.49 8.12 67.61% -2.765 -0.5076
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 987 5.17% 57.06 2.023 98.28% 0.531 1.0563
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 140 50.36% 37.08 -1.957 73.57% -0.982 -0.0934
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 406 16.75% 51.3 2.337 72.41% -1.854 0.274
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 236 35.47% 40.61 -3.161 33.47% -3.715 -1.5301
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 210 39.05% 45.48 -1.413 40.0% -3.61 -1.4589
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 207 18.32% 63.15 4.875 64.73% -3.126 -1.3001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1051 30.07% 55.64 3.509 46.72% -3.607 -1.479
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 303 30.67% 32.24 -4.046 93.4% 0.547 0.6355
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 239 43.93% 36.48 -1.683 89.96% 0.388 0.3992
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 229 41.23% 38.95 -1.537 82.97% -0.545 -0.3258
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 165 42.42% 49.99 2.608 76.36% -1.103 -0.8197
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 99 64.65% 41.25 -0.963 54.55% -1.98 -1.2093
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 60.0% 47.56 0.865 56.0% -2.192 -1.0245
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 791 25.76% 66.24 6.968 82.17% -1.895 -0.763
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 53 15.09% 35.77 -3.772 98.11% 0.684 0.5613
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 31 41.94% 42.58 1.086 90.32% 0.291 1.0063
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 63 14.29% 53.17 4.392 92.06% -0.208 0.23
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 53.85% 48.64 3.163 66.67% -1.444 -0.1849
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 37 45.95% 58.32 5.794 83.78% -0.999 0.1415
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 52.45 3.766 54.55% -1.739 0.3213
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 76 60.53% 56.95 3.842 43.42% -3.728 -1.7919

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 264 42.21% 33.91 -4.167 70.83% -0.538 0.0386
Dahan Insurrection 4 1033 28.03% 67.95 11.025 74.83% 0.555 0.956
Despicable Theft 2 1 0.0% 32.0 -5.885 100.0% 0.07 0.4991
Elemental Invocation 1 41 46.34% 31.0 -4.438 78.05% -0.541 -0.1602
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2509 8.58% 64.11 7.663 84.26% 0.967 1.333
Powers Long Forgotten 1 979 6.95% 57.28 2.297 95.1% -0.46 -0.019
Rituals of Terror 3 71 46.38% 47.3 2.234 67.61% -0.573 0.0554
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 59 79.66% 38.29 -1.472 44.07% -1.241 -0.5909
Second Wave 0 500 43.17% 34.78 -3.332 73.4% -0.789 -0.3729
Ward the Shores 2 321 33.33% 48.52 0.824 62.62% -0.875 0.1617

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 331 40.93 -2.832 52.27% -0.877 1.1932
Aid From Lesser Spirits 334 40.24 -2.81 54.79% -0.827 1.0915
All Things Weaken 103 36.55 -3.306 51.46% -1.354 0.8004
Back Against the Wall 342 39.39 -3.514 53.22% -1.123 0.9733
Disintegrating Ecosystem 332 36.95 -4.326 54.22% -0.972 1.2523
Downward Spiral 439 40.88 -2.476 61.73% -0.574 1.4433
Erosion of Will 355 37.85 -3.865 50.42% -1.199 1.0102
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 45 40.09 -1.126 80.0% 0.082 0.7867
Memory Fades to Dust 414 38.25 -3.772 53.38% -1.057 1.1578
Power Corrodes the Spirit 91 34.09 -4.127 57.14% -0.967 1.0533
Promising Farmlands 295 37.8 -4.319 49.15% -1.014 1.1986
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 40 41.23 -2.108 60.0% -0.584 -0.148
Thriving Communities 97 35.87 -3.076 55.67% -1.014 1.084
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.271 51.46% -1.095 1.1236
Unnatural Proliferation 97 40.02 -1.467 60.82% -0.486 1.5921
Untended Land Crumbles 86 37.21 -3.139 47.67% -0.998 1.1005

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.127 0.0% -0.479 -1.8942
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.127 0.0% -0.479 -1.7562
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.127 0.0% -0.479 -1.7223
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.127 0.0% -0.479 -1.7193
East 11648 30.8% 48.71 4.804 75.53% 1.127 0.1762
Northeast 10377 30.97% 49.32 0.621 74.92% -0.024 -0.9137
Northwest 10118 30.61% 49.64 1.09 75.18% 0.262 -0.7029
Southeast 1651 32.91% 42.08 -0.684 76.32% 0.179 -0.8229
Southwest 1614 33.6% 40.7 -1.542 75.59% 0.002 -0.6065
West 11580 30.66% 48.75 2.32 75.59% 0.473 -0.2125

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 87 0.0% 32.9 -8.558 57.47% -2.192 -0.1478
Not Using Events or Tokens 521 46.53% 45.98 -0.136 64.3% -0.552 -0.333
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2068 7.77% 62.18 4.206 94.0% 0.854 0.1498
Start of Game Growth 3013 6.97% 62.9 5.976 92.93% 1.375 0.9211
Unlimited Undo 1358 17.04% 60.16 2.426 86.6% -0.071 -0.4832
Using Tokens but Not Events 817 23.26% 47.39 0.034 79.07% 0.033 -0.0144

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2659 22.34 35.39%
II 4300 30.75 78.58%
III 3250 34.26 92.71%
IV 1539 37.47 98.77%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 600
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1814
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1770
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1141
Lose: Invader deck ran out 30
Lose: Adversary condition 1489
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 336
Win: Scenario condition 974
Lose: Blight pool ran out 963
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)