Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 42.86% 15.86 42.86% -0.158 -0.1065 -0.103
Blitz 0 426 46.56% 34.35 75.12% 0.763 0.9637 -0.855
Dahan Insurrection 4 1612 21.23% 62.14 70.22% -0.103 -0.3139 1.31
Despicable Theft 2 17 29.41% 28.59 47.06% -0.299 0.546 -0.337
Elemental Invocation 1 129 38.76% 32.47 71.32% 0.092 1.1631 -1.074
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2804 8.57% 64.6 84.99% 1.186 0.4617 1.739
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1235 4.86% 57.71 95.71% -0.051 0.8546 -0.401
Rituals of Terror 3 177 24.57% 99.14 79.1% 1.406 1.4365 2.648
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 37 51.35% 32.62 56.76% -0.258 0.9309 -0.668
Second Wave 0 594 37.04% 31.7 76.77% 0.029 0.11 -0.3
Varied Terrains 2 21 57.14% 28.48 28.57% -0.284 0.6173 -1.056
Ward the Shores 2 303 33.99% 45.67 65.68% -0.137 0.9184 -0.99

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 421 40.23 52.97% -0.529 -0.3902 0.157
Aid From Lesser Spirits 469 39.54 54.16% -0.347 -0.4065 0.066
All Things Weaken 209 38.03 55.02% 0.94 1.2947 -0.271
Attenuated Essence 20 29.8 45.0% -0.314 -0.2031 -0.49
Back Against the Wall 464 40.15 54.96% 0.492 0.5682 0.056
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 28.79 50.0% -0.085 0.1254 -0.122
Burn Brightest Before the End 24 27.88 37.5% -1.217 -1.0968 -1.196
Disintegrating Ecosystem 434 37.57 56.45% 0.169 0.538 -0.244
Downward Spiral 632 40.7 60.28% 0.529 0.726 0.212
Erosion of Will 472 38.26 51.48% 0.076 0.3428 -0.187
Intensifying Exploitation 17 36.47 52.94% 0.189 0.4596 -0.259
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 107 41.35 81.31% -0.298 -0.8091 0.056
Memory Fades to Dust 601 38.36 55.24% -0.223 0.0887 -0.111
Power Corrodes the Spirit 200 35.38 57.0% -0.191 0.1039 -0.39
Promising Farmlands 402 36.39 49.0% 0.319 0.6553 -0.863
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 45.15 69.23% 0.036 0.1445 -0.174
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 32.0 36.36% -0.253 0.1472 -0.273
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 88 41.83 75.0% 0.686 0.0728 0.084
The Border of Life and Death 12 17.5 58.33% 0.351 0.0584
Thriving Communities 232 35.9 56.9% -0.636 -0.303 -0.291
Thriving Crops 10 29.1 50.0% 0.208 0.1218 -0.864
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.452
Unnatural Proliferation 219 41.84 63.01% 0.017 0.165 0.627
Untended Land Crumbles 179 34.58 53.63% 0.649 0.9563 -0.008

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 18180 30.12% 47.82 74.21% -0.043 0.8185 0.046
Northeast 15346 29.85% 48.59 73.92% 0.478 1.2249 0.068
Northwest 14827 29.54% 48.88 74.16% -0.067 0.7662 -0.087
Southeast 3376 32.89% 43.03 74.02% 0.098 0.8739 0.012
Southwest 3311 33.27% 41.94 73.33% -0.414 0.9057 -0.384
West 18179 30.12% 47.82 74.21% -0.081 0.9247 0.293

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 161 0.0% 28.71 47.83% -0.183 0.6483 -2.108
Not Using Events or Tokens 928 42.87% 42.19 60.34% -0.622 -0.1812 -0.613
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3201 5.96% 63.85 94.47% 1.179 0.6166 -0.451
Start of Game Growth 4425 6.37% 63.21 92.32% 0.649 0.1106 0.922
Unlimited Undo 2174 15.99% 60.84 85.88% -0.003 0.0384 0.021
Using Tokens but Not Events 1697 23.57% 48.98 80.91% 1.237 1.2133 1.147

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4360 16.23 33.23%
II 6558 30.54 78.67%
III 4945 34.77 92.72%
IV 2379 38.37 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1449
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4140
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3982
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2335
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 661
Lose: Invader deck ran out 42
Lose: Adversary condition 2014
Win: Sacrifice victory 12
Lose: Scenario condition 478
Win: Scenario condition 1627
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1393
Lose: Spirit destroyed 109

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)