Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 84 20.24% 39.06 -14.741 84.52% -0.8 -0.4305
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 87 31.4% 42.52 -3.757 80.46% -0.229 0.1145
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 131 46.56% 47.75 2.47 79.39% 0.33 1.3121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 110 51.82% 48.49 4.114 63.64% -0.057 1.2632
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 121 60.33% 47.79 -7.197 56.2% -1.117 0.258
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 40 70.0% 51.3 -3.872 52.5% -0.2 1.5012
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 162 25.93% 67.19 -2.712 68.52% -0.667 1.6231
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 375 21.6% 35.95 2.396 93.07% 0.677 0.5587
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 252 34.4% 41.4 2.632 86.9% 0.549 0.3963
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 489 41.18% 50.58 6.535 87.73% 1.264 1.3728
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 326 39.69% 56.28 2.012 87.42% 0.374 0.7741
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 394 38.68% 59.97 6.134 87.56% -0.137 0.1709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 179 33.52% 65.21 82.68%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 355 62.99% 69.35 3.085 57.46% -0.742 0.7246
The Kingdom of England 0 1 268 23.88% 32.13 -8.891 76.49% -0.461 -0.1
The Kingdom of England 1 3 202 40.3% 41.93 -10.633 74.75% -0.908 -0.3521
The Kingdom of England 2 4 322 48.15% 37.5 1.389 57.14% 0.283 1.3163
The Kingdom of England 3 6 312 51.28% 37.84 4.491 40.71% -0.335 1.1588
The Kingdom of England 4 7 310 49.68% 51.05 60.97%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 222 20.72% 65.15 72.07%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1571 23.87% 69.06 6.108 70.4% -0.28 2.0308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1446 4.22% 57.57 1.961 98.55% 0.139 0.7215
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 191 51.05% 38.03 1.353 73.3% 0.188 1.2559
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 570 16.14% 53.35 5.48 73.33% 0.1 2.0058
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 316 35.99% 39.04 -1.261 30.7% -1.289 0.843
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 244 39.34% 43.97 -3.016 36.89% -0.693 1.1366
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 274 18.22% 64.15 66.79%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1276 29.94% 57.33 -2.1 47.81% -0.649 1.4711
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 21 0.0% 38.95 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 16.67% 39.5 -0.585 50.0% -0.206 0.6882
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 46.15% 29.15 -8.211 30.77% -1.401 -0.4034
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 26 57.69% 45.81 2.758 61.54% -0.086 0.5988
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 70.33 6.006 100.0% 0.189 1.179
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 28.57% 61.57 3.275 71.43% -0.265 1.0084
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 52 51.92% 60.52 -4.487 21.15% -2.053 -0.4043
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 517 30.93% 31.25 -4.236 94.78% 0.608 0.6958
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 280 43.01% 37.22 -3.453 89.64% 0.345 0.3819
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 334 43.12% 39.6 -0.854 81.44% 0.578 0.8185
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 239 42.26% 52.15 4.157 79.08% 0.445 0.8423
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 114 64.04% 42.22 -1.892 57.02% -0.312 0.5531
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 58 62.07% 46.88 -1.321 55.17% -0.171 1.1128
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1107 31.52% 65.69 4.774 83.65% 0.551 1.6175
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 81 19.75% 36.36 -4.754 92.59% 0.113 -0.2392
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 69 55.07% 40.17 -1.553 79.71% -0.125 0.6447
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 148 18.24% 56.99 3.098 91.22% 0.339 0.6376
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 51 60.78% 46.12 9.101 62.75% 0.338 1.6543
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 65 43.08% 57.86 81.54%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 24 79.17% 42.92 -7.069 33.33% -1.324 0.4462
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 266 31.95% 89.18 15.615 71.43% -0.307 1.6716

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 75.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.267 -0.1794
Blitz 0 347 45.48% 35.47 76.08% 0.383 0.8398 -0.813
Dahan Insurrection 4 1286 23.35% 70.41 79.32% 0.776 0.796 1.557
Despicable Theft 2 8 25.0% 43.13 87.5% -0.058
Elemental Invocation 1 111 38.74% 33.02 73.87% -0.387 0.3122 -1.077
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2626 7.05% 66.12 86.86% -0.477 -0.4358 1.762
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1128 4.88% 58.23 96.45% 0.734 1.2962 -0.001
Rituals of Terror 3 137 25.19% 103.18 86.86% 0.466 0.1783 2.909
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 30 60.0% 40.23 70.0% -0.314 0.1165 -0.355
Second Wave 0 545 37.06% 32.7 79.08% -0.1 0.3617 -0.019
Varied Terrains 2 7 28.57% 36.43 28.57% -0.782 0.0462 -0.769
Ward the Shores 2 282 34.04% 46.8 66.67% -0.404 0.3399 -0.939

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 397 40.35 52.9% 0.709 2.4399 -0.173
Aid From Lesser Spirits 431 40.28 55.45% 0.183 1.7583 -0.051
All Things Weaken 179 38.53 54.19% -0.72 1.1577 -0.734
Back Against the Wall 440 40.84 55.23% 0.792 2.4289 -0.255
Disintegrating Ecosystem 417 38.13 57.07% 0.357 2.2003 -0.471
Downward Spiral 560 41.2 61.25% 0.857 2.5555 0.016
Erosion of Will 445 38.48 51.46% -0.717 1.1827 -0.335
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 98 42.66 83.67% -0.296 0.2042 -0.101
Memory Fades to Dust 545 38.87 55.78% -1.27 0.6055 -0.211
Power Corrodes the Spirit 173 36.24 56.65% -0.197 1.5078 -0.633
Promising Farmlands 362 37.33 49.72% 0.012 1.8879 -0.925
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 77 42.36 75.32% 0.307 0.5175 -0.239
Thriving Communities 206 37.78 60.19% -0.701 1.1693 -0.214
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.644
Unnatural Proliferation 195 42.96 62.56% -0.354 1.4001 0.58
Untended Land Crumbles 157 35.78 52.87% -0.487 1.3275 -0.113

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16334 30.01% 49.87 77.03% 0.105 0.697 -0.18
Northeast 13848 29.83% 50.61 76.62% 0.284 0.9607 0.129
Northwest 13394 29.52% 50.86 76.83% -0.226 0.2118 0.036
Southeast 2975 32.58% 45.15 77.31% 0.113 0.7765 0.113
Southwest 2876 33.02% 44.24 76.95% -0.469 0.7027 -0.368
West 16333 30.01% 49.87 77.03% 0.228 1.0456 0.212

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 141 0.0% 31.48 53.9% 0.012 2.0878 -2.333
Not Using Events or Tokens 726 45.71% 46.32 66.53% 0.314 0.4857 -0.587
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3052 5.95% 64.35 94.82% 0.788 -0.2712 -0.471
Start of Game Growth 4230 6.09% 63.94 93.12% 1.045 0.6228 0.854
Unlimited Undo 2033 14.52% 62.93 88.0% -0.133 -0.5481 0.255
Using Tokens but Not Events 1485 21.44% 51.79 83.16% 0.345 0.4609 1.311

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3592 22.63 39.0%
II 6095 31.12 79.98%
III 4553 34.7 92.84%
IV 2156 37.97 98.89%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1401
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3818
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3784
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2120
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39
Lose: Adversary condition 1897
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 445
Win: Scenario condition 1505
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1270
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)