Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 82 19.51% 39.77 0.355 86.59% 0.06 0.6115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 81 31.25% 42.74 0.81 81.48% 0.087 0.9646
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 120 48.33% 47.37 -2.776 80.0% -0.656 0.4633
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 104 50.96% 47.94 -0.409 63.46% -0.194 1.3373
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 117 59.83% 48.31 58.12%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 38 68.42% 49.29 52.63%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 159 25.79% 66.7 39.366 69.18% 0.183 2.4437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 367 21.53% 35.81 -2.565 92.92% 0.344 0.5879
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 242 34.17% 41.29 -3.793 86.78% -0.033 -0.1589
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 448 43.12% 49.12 2.299 87.05% -0.146 -0.03
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 307 38.56% 56.38 3.378 87.3% -0.445 -0.0706
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 380 39.58% 59.46 11.775 87.37% 0.501 0.9672
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 179 33.52% 65.21 82.68%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 334 64.56% 68.51 10.065 57.49% -0.277 1.2985
The Kingdom of England 0 1 260 24.23% 31.82 -5.545 76.15% 0.183 0.6988
The Kingdom of England 1 3 195 40.72% 42.47 3.569 76.41% 0.456 1.0657
The Kingdom of England 2 4 295 47.78% 37.25 -3.708 56.61% -1.21 -0.0826
The Kingdom of England 3 6 310 51.61% 37.74 2.56 40.65% -0.228 1.5151
The Kingdom of England 4 7 310 49.68% 51.05 -2.312 60.97% -0.773 0.8053
The Kingdom of England 5 9 221 20.81% 65.17 18.706 72.4% 0.021 1.7583
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1558 23.94% 68.91 6.532 70.41% -0.437 1.8616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1300 4.54% 57.33 2.772 98.54% 0.756 1.6583
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 183 51.1% 37.55 -0.068 72.68% -0.005 0.8848
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 528 16.86% 52.16 3.786 72.35% 0.045 2.4474
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 305 36.3% 39.0 -3.515 30.49% -1.224 1.1603
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 236 38.98% 44.21 3.558 37.71% -0.147 2.3281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 271 17.67% 63.97 66.79%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1245 29.72% 57.45 0.646 48.43% -1.698 0.6687
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 11 0.0% 38.45 0.494 100.0% 1.174 1.05
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 18.5 -10.814 0.0% -0.798 0.0467
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 80.0% 33.8 0.321 60.0% 0.051 0.8792
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 50.0% 29.83 -2.334 33.33% -0.748 0.1219
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 85.0 15.954 100.0% 0.122 1.3573
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 20 55.0% 69.6 8.157 25.0% -0.867 0.8317
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 477 31.86% 31.23 -2.645 94.55% 0.911 1.0779
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 271 43.7% 37.1 2.44 89.67% 0.359 0.1355
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 303 44.59% 38.94 -4.284 80.53% -0.95 -0.4963
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 234 42.31% 52.06 3.801 78.63% 0.434 0.744
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 111 63.96% 41.93 56.76%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 60.71% 46.79 55.36%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1084 31.54% 65.76 2.944 84.04% -0.543 0.6492
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 78 19.23% 36.5 7.438 93.59% 0.177 0.1203
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 59 57.63% 40.32 2.53 81.36% 0.233 1.0066
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 140 17.14% 57.44 -0.502 92.14% 0.111 0.8213
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 47 57.45% 45.34 59.57%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 65 43.08% 57.86 -8.725 81.54% -0.391 0.994
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 94.44% 46.44 38.89%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 252 32.14% 87.12 35.459 71.43% 0.297 2.3165

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 24.0 50.0% 0.137 -0.0653
Blitz 0 304 46.84% 34.92 74.67% 0.066 0.3237 -0.73
Dahan Insurrection 4 1206 23.4% 70.04 79.35% 0.194 0.6074 1.53
Despicable Theft 2 7 28.57% 43.43 85.71% -0.043
Elemental Invocation 1 102 38.24% 32.81 72.55% 0.94 1.4255 -1.013
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2553 6.55% 66.64 87.78% 0.313 0.6185 1.877
Powers Long Forgotten 1 985 5.49% 57.9 95.94% 0.605 0.7867 0.021
Rituals of Terror 3 115 28.32% 101.56 86.09% 1.046 1.1671 2.789
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 29 58.62% 39.66 72.41% -0.286
Second Wave 0 524 36.64% 32.76 79.01% -0.439 0.1269 0.135
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 43.67 33.33% -0.34 0.1858 -0.163
Ward the Shores 2 269 32.34% 47.27 67.29% -0.991 0.1706 -0.895

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 390 40.2 52.05% -0.259 1.6439 -0.192
Aid From Lesser Spirits 418 40.45 55.5% -0.481 1.2493 0.013
All Things Weaken 164 38.58 55.49% -0.77 1.215 -0.472
Back Against the Wall 428 40.61 54.67% -0.002 1.8143 -0.315
Disintegrating Ecosystem 412 37.96 56.8% -0.146 1.9045 -0.437
Downward Spiral 539 40.75 60.48% -0.7 1.2934 0.01
Erosion of Will 435 38.74 51.72% -1.033 1.0498 -0.262
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 94 42.21 85.11% 0.435 0.8765 0.382
Memory Fades to Dust 523 38.84 55.45% -0.061 2.0228 -0.223
Power Corrodes the Spirit 164 36.1 56.71% -1.193 0.7456 -0.497
Promising Farmlands 358 37.19 49.72% 0.625 2.6707 -0.859
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 74 42.28 74.32% -0.17 0.2551 -0.242
Thriving Communities 190 37.24 61.05% 0.452 2.436 -0.225
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.639
Unnatural Proliferation 181 42.97 62.43% -0.148 1.8163 0.572
Untended Land Crumbles 143 35.37 51.75% -0.915 1.078 -0.11

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 15638 30.26% 49.87 76.88% 0.007 0.7759 0.245
Northeast 13282 30.22% 50.54 76.36% -0.115 0.7449 0.011
Northwest 12856 29.9% 50.78 76.59% 0.015 1.0919 -0.005
Southeast 2815 32.34% 45.38 77.55% -0.183 0.5231 -0.06
Southwest 2732 32.73% 44.48 77.27% 0.215 1.3401 -0.368
West 15637 30.26% 49.87 76.88% 0.09 1.0435 0.124

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 139 0.0% 31.58 53.96% -0.717 1.412 -2.39
Not Using Events or Tokens 680 47.12% 45.85 65.15% 0.206 0.3807 -0.577
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2899 6.27% 64.57 94.55% 1.065 0.9227 -0.532
Start of Game Growth 4067 6.24% 64.12 92.84% 1.137 0.377 0.796
Unlimited Undo 1993 14.71% 63.46 88.01% 0.646 0.0423 0.252
Using Tokens but Not Events 1390 20.62% 52.62 83.09% 0.706 0.5495 1.357

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3406 22.56 38.05%
II 5878 30.98 79.94%
III 4366 34.53 92.85%
IV 2050 37.77 98.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1296
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3660
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3663
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2014
Lose: Invader deck ran out 36
Lose: Adversary condition 1838
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 420
Win: Scenario condition 1435
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1231
Lose: Spirit destroyed 100

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)