Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 50.0% 21.86 50.0% -0.169 0.0223 -0.08
Blitz 0 479 42.71% 31.24 68.68% 0.102 0.3192 -1.107
Dahan Insurrection 4 1908 19.09% 55.79 63.57% -0.14 -0.3934 1.5
Despicable Theft 2 24 33.33% 26.0 41.67% -0.11 0.4759 -0.327
Elemental Invocation 1 135 40.0% 32.44 71.11% 0.233 0.9722 -1.135
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3036 9.2% 62.48 82.11% 0.641 0.0791 1.846
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1501 4.47% 57.48 95.47% 0.491 1.2507 -0.365
Rituals of Terror 3 238 20.34% 87.55 69.33% 0.137 0.2571 2.342
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 46 47.83% 29.78 50.0% 0.139 1.0461 -0.717
Second Wave 0 683 38.65% 30.08 72.77% -0.108 0.0308 0.017
Varied Terrains 2 29 58.62% 29.31 37.93% 0.745 1.5208 -0.954
Ward the Shores 2 316 33.23% 44.53 64.24% -0.586 0.4889 -0.866

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 454 39.01 51.32% 0.081 0.3319 0.222
Aid From Lesser Spirits 496 39.07 53.23% -0.555 -0.6132 0.107
All Things Weaken 225 37.16 55.11% -0.637 -0.3022 -0.205
Attenuated Essence 38 30.18 50.0% 0.164 0.1976 -0.804
Back Against the Wall 490 40.13 54.9% 0.015 0.0495 0.189
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 35 29.46 48.57% 0.094 0.3109 0.5
Burn Brightest Before the End 43 32.3 48.84% 0.929 0.9395 -0.315
Disintegrating Ecosystem 458 36.72 55.46% 0.317 0.6615 -0.285
Downward Spiral 693 39.71 59.74% 0.286 0.4028 0.475
Erosion of Will 505 37.64 50.5% -0.808 -0.5336 -0.1
Intensifying Exploitation 34 28.94 41.18% -0.407 -0.1957 -0.615
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 116 40.59 80.17% 0.435 -0.1378 0.046
Memory Fades to Dust 661 37.29 54.16% 0.715 0.9677 0.15
Power Corrodes the Spirit 221 35.36 57.01% 0.649 0.8533 -0.191
Promising Farmlands 431 35.38 48.26% -0.569 -0.3149 -0.756
Shattered Fragments of Power 25 39.0 56.0% 0.192 0.266 0.143
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 33.76 44.0% 0.463 0.8443 -0.354
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 92 41.4 72.83% -0.292 -0.9659 0.059
The Border of Life and Death 13 18.38 53.85% -0.278
Thriving Communities 253 35.55 56.92% 0.224 0.5058 -0.107
Thriving Crops 14 30.36 35.71% -0.148 -0.2887 -1.313
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.37
Unnatural Proliferation 249 40.68 61.45% 0.719 0.9226 0.657
Untended Land Crumbles 196 33.55 52.04% 0.49 0.6805 0.074

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 20420 29.38% 45.57 71.13% -0.053 0.8218 -0.195
Northeast 17123 29.12% 46.46 71.02% -0.372 0.38 0.101
Northwest 16553 28.86% 46.73 71.28% 0.112 1.0038 -0.004
Southeast 3920 32.02% 40.42 70.05% -0.186 0.653 -0.003
Southwest 3843 32.23% 39.51 69.45% -0.23 1.0749 -0.263
West 20419 29.38% 45.57 71.13% 0.689 1.6389 0.319

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 187 0.0% 26.11 43.32% -0.223 0.5061 -2.043
Not Using Events or Tokens 1347 33.2% 33.04 47.51% -0.838 -0.4922 -1.084
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3511 5.63% 62.85 93.82% 0.978 0.3753 -0.567
Start of Game Growth 4758 6.32% 62.3 91.64% -0.088 -0.5924 0.823
Unlimited Undo 2342 17.17% 58.22 82.88% 0.515 0.4075 -0.028
Using Tokens but Not Events 1808 23.23% 47.6 79.59% 0.012 -0.0178 1.093

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5468 13.42 29.63%
II 7053 30.13 76.99%
III 5342 34.83 92.42%
IV 2619 38.67 98.93%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1620
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4460
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4197
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2573
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1578
Lose: Invader deck ran out 45
Lose: Adversary condition 2134
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 518
Win: Scenario condition 1712
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1514
Lose: Spirit destroyed 115

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)