Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 60.0% 22.2 60.0% -0.261 -0.3394
Blitz 0 365 45.98% 35.23 75.34% 0.776 0.9222 -0.777
Dahan Insurrection 4 1338 22.74% 68.49 77.2% 0.359 0.1524 1.466
Despicable Theft 2 13 23.08% 33.62 61.54% -0.671 0.0116 -0.066
Elemental Invocation 1 115 38.26% 32.5 73.04% 0.402 1.133 -1.062
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2691 7.74% 65.58 85.92% 0.783 0.1767 1.66
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1148 4.88% 58.14 96.34% 1.088 1.5766 -0.31
Rituals of Terror 3 143 27.66% 101.81 84.62% 0.712 0.8176 2.854
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 56.25% 37.72 65.63% -0.209 0.7834 -0.503
Second Wave 0 554 37.0% 32.41 78.34% -0.352 -0.2897 -0.249
Varied Terrains 2 10 40.0% 37.6 50.0% 0.673 1.2354 -0.692
Ward the Shores 2 283 34.28% 46.81 66.78% 0.191 1.4009 -0.918

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 403 40.58 53.35% 1.227 1.4978 0.034
Aid From Lesser Spirits 437 39.93 55.15% 0.176 0.2146 -0.071
All Things Weaken 182 39.2 54.4% -0.117 0.3434 -0.483
Attenuated Essence 6 35.33 66.67% 0.643 0.8489 -0.21
Back Against the Wall 445 40.89 55.28% 0.4 0.5617 -0.051
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 30.33 33.33% 0.347 0.7615
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 23.0 50.0% 0.036 0.3402
Disintegrating Ecosystem 421 37.93 56.77% -0.244 0.2827 -0.369
Downward Spiral 573 41.02 61.26% 0.781 1.1338 0.044
Erosion of Will 455 38.54 51.65% 0.242 0.6501 -0.168
Intensifying Exploitation 5 21.8 20.0% -0.817 -0.4301 -0.22
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 99 42.42 82.83% -0.546 -1.071 0.086
Memory Fades to Dust 556 39.01 56.12% 0.537 1.0179 -0.156
Power Corrodes the Spirit 175 36.11 56.0% 0.105 0.41 -0.616
Promising Farmlands 365 37.18 49.59% 0.144 0.7304 -0.921
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 44.8 80.0% 0.547 0.7263 0.105
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 29.75 25.0% -0.573 -0.0395 -0.607
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 81 42.96 75.31% 0.914 0.2362 0.108
The Border of Life and Death 3 17.0 33.33% -0.369 -0.4982
Thriving Communities 211 37.23 59.24% -0.292 0.2009 -0.265
Thriving Crops 2 9.5 0.0% -0.523 -0.4345 -0.504
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.536
Unnatural Proliferation 198 42.71 62.63% 0.52 0.817 0.598
Untended Land Crumbles 163 35.72 53.37% 0.783 1.1408 -0.121

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16713 30.01% 49.4 76.32% 0.173 0.7767 -0.123
Northeast 14149 29.81% 50.16 75.99% 0.216 1.0965 0.165
Northwest 13681 29.48% 50.4 76.21% -0.09 0.5833 -0.031
Southeast 3056 32.73% 44.72 76.41% 0.443 1.0794 0.069
Southwest 2972 33.13% 43.72 75.77% -0.675 0.4894 -0.326
West 16712 30.02% 49.41 76.32% -0.092 0.8718 0.19

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 144 0.0% 30.83 52.78% -0.869 0.0146 -2.334
Not Using Events or Tokens 770 43.87% 45.61 66.1% 0.362 0.6936 -0.448
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3075 5.94% 64.25 94.7% 0.383 -0.1514 -0.593
Start of Game Growth 4262 6.16% 63.79 92.89% -0.275 -0.6056 0.872
Unlimited Undo 2057 14.84% 62.52 87.51% 0.197 0.1754 0.274
Using Tokens but Not Events 1523 21.7% 51.1 82.34% -0.034 -0.0882 1.382

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3770 21.03 37.43%
II 6184 31.04 79.77%
III 4631 34.74 92.83%
IV 2190 38.02 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1411
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3889
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3829
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2154
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 149
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 1921
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 463
Win: Scenario condition 1519
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1287
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)