Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 60.0% 22.2 60.0% -0.451 -0.729
Blitz 0 378 46.52% 35.03 75.13% 0.541 0.7189 -0.796
Dahan Insurrection 4 1365 22.65% 67.91 76.63% -0.067 -0.4611 1.452
Despicable Theft 2 15 26.67% 30.53 53.33% -0.976 -0.1805 -0.063
Elemental Invocation 1 119 36.97% 32.38 73.11% 0.344 1.0626 -1.067
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2718 8.07% 65.31 85.54% 0.257 -0.3832 1.643
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1157 4.84% 58.1 96.28% 0.856 1.4933 -0.325
Rituals of Terror 3 145 27.97% 101.5 84.14% 0.737 0.889 2.845
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 56.25% 37.72 65.63% -0.326 0.7538 -0.508
Second Wave 0 557 37.16% 32.48 78.28% -0.294 -0.2272 -0.35
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 37.0 41.67% 0.313 0.9467 -0.936
Ward the Shores 2 284 34.15% 46.82 66.9% 0.769 1.8586 -0.92

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 407 40.65 53.32% 0.468 0.6982 0.044
Aid From Lesser Spirits 439 39.9 55.13% -0.051 -0.1104 -0.054
All Things Weaken 184 38.78 53.8% -1.131 -0.753 -0.447
Attenuated Essence 8 30.75 50.0% 0.174 0.2543 -0.633
Back Against the Wall 447 40.83 55.26% -0.243 -0.1937 -0.03
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 30.25 50.0% -0.086 0.1112
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 34.86 71.43% 0.594 0.7875
Disintegrating Ecosystem 422 38.0 56.87% 0.642 1.0552 -0.326
Downward Spiral 581 41.19 61.62% 1.285 1.5287 0.141
Erosion of Will 459 38.43 51.63% -0.29 0.0187 -0.215
Intensifying Exploitation 5 21.8 20.0% -1.081 -0.8021 -0.21
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 101 42.24 83.17% -0.008 -0.5146 0.11
Memory Fades to Dust 560 38.97 56.07% 0.766 1.1089 -0.174
Power Corrodes the Spirit 180 36.9 56.67% 0.588 0.8245 -0.562
Promising Farmlands 369 37.35 49.86% 0.912 1.3656 -0.87
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 47.5 83.33% 0.817 0.869 0.121
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 29.75 25.0% -0.497 -0.106 -0.6
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 82 42.44 74.39% 0.211 -0.4993 -0.027
The Border of Life and Death 3 17.0 33.33% -0.063 -0.4392
Thriving Communities 213 36.94 58.69% -0.685 -0.3381 -0.348
Thriving Crops 3 19.0 33.33% -0.422 -0.6228 -0.48
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.523
Unnatural Proliferation 204 42.32 63.24% 0.45 0.6455 0.619
Untended Land Crumbles 163 35.72 53.37% 0.764 1.0309 -0.101

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16889 30.03% 49.26 76.17% 0.346 0.9091 -0.102
Northeast 14290 29.81% 50.02 75.84% 0.08 0.7458 0.172
Northwest 13815 29.48% 50.28 76.06% 0.079 0.8928 -0.049
Southeast 3092 32.74% 44.56 76.29% 0.399 1.1224 0.052
Southwest 3018 33.26% 43.51 75.61% -0.384 0.6191 -0.315
West 16888 30.03% 49.26 76.17% -0.546 0.3753 0.184

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 146 0.0% 30.55 52.05% -0.961 -0.191 -2.332
Not Using Events or Tokens 786 43.71% 45.39 66.03% 0.271 0.6464 -0.433
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3087 5.92% 64.24 94.69% 0.051 -0.5868 -0.608
Start of Game Growth 4274 6.14% 63.78 92.89% -0.199 -0.5097 0.886
Unlimited Undo 2064 14.84% 62.46 87.45% 0.038 0.0147 0.282
Using Tokens but Not Events 1551 22.1% 50.95 82.27% 0.136 0.1292 1.357

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3828 20.44 36.99%
II 6226 31.01 79.71%
III 4681 34.76 92.89%
IV 2216 38.06 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1416
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3932
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3852
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2178
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 191
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 1938
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 467
Win: Scenario condition 1532
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1291
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)