Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 60.0% 22.2 60.0% -0.293 -0.5581
Blitz 0 373 46.07% 35.14 75.34% 0.673 0.8296 -0.801
Dahan Insurrection 4 1346 22.83% 68.34 77.04% 0.148 -0.1198 1.464
Despicable Theft 2 14 28.57% 32.71 57.14% -0.71 0.0523 -0.063
Elemental Invocation 1 118 37.29% 32.33 72.88% 0.281 1.0417 -1.064
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2703 7.85% 65.44 85.72% 0.426 -0.2074 1.629
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1151 4.87% 58.09 96.26% 0.85 1.3831 -0.314
Rituals of Terror 3 145 27.97% 101.5 84.14% 0.483 0.5857 2.806
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 56.25% 37.72 65.63% -0.224 0.7816 -0.507
Second Wave 0 555 36.94% 32.41 78.2% -0.383 -0.3171 -0.351
Varied Terrains 2 10 40.0% 37.6 50.0% 0.518 1.0962 -0.69
Ward the Shores 2 284 34.15% 46.82 66.9% 0.647 1.8019 -0.917

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 404 40.67 53.47% 1.419 1.609 0.054
Aid From Lesser Spirits 438 39.94 55.25% 0.068 0.0044 -0.07
All Things Weaken 183 38.99 54.1% -0.052 0.3352 -0.466
Attenuated Essence 6 35.33 66.67% 0.717 0.8226 -0.193
Back Against the Wall 447 40.83 55.26% 0.011 0.0735 -0.044
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 30.33 33.33% 0.527 0.81
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 35.17 66.67% 0.311 0.5022
Disintegrating Ecosystem 421 37.93 56.77% -0.469 -0.0372 -0.359
Downward Spiral 577 41.08 61.35% 0.798 1.0585 0.096
Erosion of Will 457 38.37 51.42% 0.177 0.506 -0.232
Intensifying Exploitation 5 21.8 20.0% -0.919 -0.6209 -0.216
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 101 42.24 83.17% 0.093 -0.4053 0.099
Memory Fades to Dust 557 39.06 56.19% 0.529 0.9228 -0.156
Power Corrodes the Spirit 179 36.66 56.42% -0.133 0.1117 -0.59
Promising Farmlands 366 37.19 49.73% 0.172 0.6588 -0.915
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 47.5 83.33% 0.857 0.9334 0.109
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 29.75 25.0% -0.492 -0.0574 -0.598
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 82 42.44 74.39% 0.383 -0.2494 -0.059
The Border of Life and Death 3 17.0 33.33% -0.291 -0.6516
Thriving Communities 212 37.12 58.96% -0.531 -0.1537 -0.26
Thriving Crops 2 9.5 0.0% -0.597 -0.6536 -0.504
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.534
Unnatural Proliferation 200 42.66 63.0% 0.257 0.4569 0.598
Untended Land Crumbles 163 35.72 53.37% 0.752 1.0212 -0.112

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16790 30.03% 49.34 76.27% 0.336 0.9829 -0.104
Northeast 14211 29.84% 50.09 75.93% 0.172 1.006 0.159
Northwest 13740 29.5% 50.34 76.16% -0.163 0.629 -0.032
Southeast 3071 32.7% 44.67 76.36% 0.336 1.1006 0.066
Southwest 2993 33.17% 43.62 75.68% -0.559 0.5262 -0.328
West 16789 30.04% 49.34 76.26% -0.15 0.8047 0.185

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 146 0.0% 30.55 52.05% -0.972 -0.1468 -2.324
Not Using Events or Tokens 782 43.67% 45.37 65.86% 0.327 0.6642 -0.432
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3080 5.93% 64.24 94.68% 0.2 -0.4067 -0.602
Start of Game Growth 4267 6.15% 63.78 92.88% -0.263 -0.5409 0.889
Unlimited Undo 2060 14.82% 62.51 87.48% -0.12 -0.1198 0.277
Using Tokens but Not Events 1538 22.03% 51.07 82.31% 0.137 0.067 1.362

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3790 20.73 37.23%
II 6202 31.02 79.73%
III 4654 34.75 92.84%
IV 2206 38.04 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1411
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3908
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3840
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2168
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 168
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 1925
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 466
Win: Scenario condition 1523
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1289
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)