Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 50.0% 22.33 50.0% 0.542 0.4953 -0.08
Blitz 0 470 43.53% 31.64 69.36% -0.388 -0.1592 -1.134
Dahan Insurrection 4 1873 19.18% 56.43 64.28% -0.131 -0.4494 1.371
Despicable Theft 2 22 27.27% 27.59 45.45% 0.109 0.8952 -0.333
Elemental Invocation 1 134 40.3% 32.38 70.9% 0.232 0.9227 -1.105
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2984 8.86% 62.84 82.64% 0.81 0.2088 1.749
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1447 4.56% 57.52 95.58% 0.531 1.3518 -0.389
Rituals of Terror 3 230 21.05% 88.71 70.43% 0.635 0.6343 2.26
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 45 46.67% 29.02 48.89% -0.767
Second Wave 0 674 37.98% 30.19 73.0% 0.154 0.3786 -0.056
Varied Terrains 2 27 59.26% 29.04 33.33% -0.309 0.5388 -0.924
Ward the Shores 2 315 33.02% 44.57 64.44% -0.292 0.8171 -0.923

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 446 39.35 52.02% -0.206 -0.1641 0.225
Aid From Lesser Spirits 482 39.24 54.15% -0.231 -0.3165 0.133
All Things Weaken 223 37.36 55.61% 0.315 0.5256 -0.182
Attenuated Essence 32 31.44 46.88% -0.531
Back Against the Wall 481 40.24 55.3% -0.138 -0.1037 0.185
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 33 29.88 48.48% -0.078 0.0728 0.451
Burn Brightest Before the End 39 30.03 46.15% 0.198 0.2047 -0.905
Disintegrating Ecosystem 449 37.14 55.9% 0.25 0.4281 -0.249
Downward Spiral 680 39.84 60.0% -0.315 -0.2505 0.431
Erosion of Will 492 38.23 51.63% -0.684 -0.558 -0.065
Intensifying Exploitation 31 28.61 41.94% -0.237 -0.1179 -0.679
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 114 40.44 80.7% -0.008
Memory Fades to Dust 637 37.86 54.63% -0.478 -0.2692 0.107
Power Corrodes the Spirit 217 35.22 56.68% 0.612 0.7346 -0.292
Promising Farmlands 421 36.08 49.17% -0.37 -0.1733 -0.746
Shattered Fragments of Power 21 37.48 52.38% -0.02
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 31.78 39.13% -0.336 -0.0178 -0.381
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 91 41.57 73.63% 0.036
The Border of Life and Death 13 18.38 53.85% -0.282
Thriving Communities 245 35.94 57.55% 0.504 0.6427 -0.201
Thriving Crops 13 28.31 38.46% -0.227 -0.5031 -1.208
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.395
Unnatural Proliferation 242 40.69 61.16% 0.421 0.4955 0.567
Untended Land Crumbles 194 33.55 52.06% 0.532 0.6925 -0.037

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 19951 29.32% 45.99 71.82% 0.445 1.1895 -0.172
Northeast 16730 29.05% 46.88 71.71% -0.35 0.4938 0.07
Northwest 16154 28.76% 47.18 72.0% 0.141 0.8871 0.007
Southeast 3838 32.0% 40.78 70.66% -0.514 0.3536 0.012
Southwest 3765 32.23% 39.83 70.04% 0.404 1.6996 -0.281
West 19950 29.32% 45.99 71.81% -0.16 0.811 0.322

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 180 0.0% 26.75 43.89% -0.37 0.2777 -2.119
Not Using Events or Tokens 1273 33.85% 34.19 48.78% -1.777 -1.3467 -1.134
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3451 5.67% 62.97 93.86% 0.439 -0.3591 -0.582
Start of Game Growth 4693 6.35% 62.42 91.69% -0.091 -0.5042 0.838
Unlimited Undo 2318 16.88% 58.51 83.18% -0.48 -0.5262 -0.047
Using Tokens but Not Events 1786 23.46% 47.95 80.01% 0.159 0.0864 1.117

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5235 13.84 30.2%
II 6942 30.21 77.51%
III 5258 34.83 92.6%
IV 2578 38.63 98.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1581
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4395
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4154
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2532
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1393
Lose: Invader deck ran out 43
Lose: Adversary condition 2087
Win: Sacrifice victory 16
Lose: Scenario condition 511
Win: Scenario condition 1703
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1483
Lose: Spirit destroyed 115

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-09 16:35:15 (Pacific Time)