Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 72 19.44% 38.86 -2.395 88.89% -0.531 -0.2421
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 59 24.14% 44.85 0.543 88.14% -0.395 0.0191
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 96 43.75% 47.52 2.777 81.25% -0.9 -0.0167
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 78 55.13% 45.9 1.104 64.1% -1.915 -0.6726
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 106 60.38% 47.44 0.91 57.55% -2.797 -1.3002
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 32 62.5% 50.38 2.5 56.25% -2.198 -0.2585
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 135 27.41% 64.16 3.357 70.37% -3.567 -1.5242
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 330 20.91% 35.79 -3.485 93.64% 0.422 0.4628
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 187 39.46% 37.48 -1.844 87.7% 0.004 -0.0139
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 374 43.01% 48.3 2.392 87.7% -0.134 -0.1208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 268 39.7% 55.57 5.51 86.94% -0.386 -0.1021
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 324 41.8% 57.53 6.092 87.65% -0.452 -0.0925
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 159 32.08% 64.46 7.642 82.39% -1.397 -0.5722
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 269 71.27% 57.97 5.466 54.65% -2.283 -1.0433
The Kingdom of England 0 1 237 21.52% 31.71 -6.08 76.79% -1.296 -0.9664
The Kingdom of England 1 3 172 42.11% 41.55 -0.592 75.0% -1.016 -0.4991
The Kingdom of England 2 4 235 47.81% 38.36 -2.321 59.57% -1.926 -0.9529
The Kingdom of England 3 6 288 51.74% 37.38 -3.298 39.93% -2.996 -1.416
The Kingdom of England 4 7 277 50.18% 50.23 1.106 59.57% -2.506 -1.0112
The Kingdom of England 5 9 207 19.81% 65.13 6.609 73.91% -2.759 -0.689
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1431 24.25% 68.36 8.314 70.58% -2.747 -0.5035
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1170 5.05% 57.22 1.777 98.38% 0.494 1.0055
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 160 50.31% 37.11 -2.3 73.13% -1.128 -0.2252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 467 17.34% 51.2 2.051 71.95% -1.949 0.1923
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 285 36.04% 39.09 -3.849 31.23% -3.862 -1.6638
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 222 38.29% 44.58 -2.09 38.29% -3.759 -1.5987
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 250 19.18% 62.49 4.339 64.0% -3.145 -1.3273
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1147 29.29% 56.85 3.621 48.82% -3.617 -1.5263
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 373 32.7% 31.6 -4.278 93.83% 0.565 0.6532
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 252 43.03% 36.66 -1.863 90.08% 0.292 0.3268
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 246 42.04% 39.3 -1.666 83.74% -0.565 -0.3272
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 188 41.49% 51.39 2.924 78.72% -1.059 -0.7685
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 106 63.21% 41.67 -1.062 55.66% -2.043 -1.2616
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 60.71% 46.79 0.501 55.36% -2.256 -1.0879
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 965 28.17% 66.42 6.989 84.15% -1.733 -0.6107
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 60 16.67% 35.85 -3.916 98.33% 0.732 0.6435
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 39 46.15% 40.92 -0.046 84.62% -0.254 0.5249
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 98 17.35% 54.08 3.861 91.84% -0.328 0.0835
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 46 58.7% 45.65 1.998 60.87% -1.72 -0.4757
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 52 38.46% 60.6 6.017 88.46% -0.837 0.2711
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 16 93.75% 47.06 2.184 43.75% -2.211 -0.2271
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 192 34.9% 72.22 7.343 67.19% -3.606 -1.7344

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 291 42.86% 34.49 -4.09 72.51% -0.444 0.1221
Dahan Insurrection 4 1254 26.84% 68.93 11.17 77.19% 0.602 1.0023
Despicable Theft 2 4 50.0% 41.5 -0.553 75.0% 0.024 0.2978
Elemental Invocation 1 82 40.24% 32.3 -4.817 68.29% -0.868 -0.3656
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3187 7.38% 66.0 7.653 85.88% 0.925 1.29
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1148 6.28% 57.68 2.139 95.73% -0.392 0.0546
Rituals of Terror 3 74 44.44% 47.76 2.15 68.92% -0.569 0.076
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 80.0% 38.42 -1.575 45.0% -1.208 -0.5614
Second Wave 0 578 40.63% 34.35 -3.643 75.09% -0.756 -0.3262
Ward the Shores 2 360 33.61% 47.81 0.462 61.94% -0.923 0.1091

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 366 40.73 -3.114 53.01% -0.978 1.0913
Aid From Lesser Spirits 372 40.41 -2.873 55.38% -0.834 1.0788
All Things Weaken 125 37.18 -3.367 54.4% -1.224 0.9353
Back Against the Wall 386 40.52 -3.362 53.89% -1.164 0.9227
Disintegrating Ecosystem 370 37.22 -4.352 55.95% -0.971 1.2514
Downward Spiral 482 40.84 -2.775 60.79% -0.682 1.3392
Erosion of Will 396 39.01 -3.563 52.53% -1.137 1.0702
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 68 42.35 -0.879 82.35% 0.105 0.7836
Memory Fades to Dust 474 38.38 -3.871 55.27% -1.043 1.1723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 35.67 -3.935 57.02% -0.92 1.1011
Promising Farmlands 321 37.44 -4.743 48.91% -1.138 1.07
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 59 42.86 -1.24 72.88% -0.244 0.1674
Thriving Communities 147 36.93 -3.043 59.18% -0.802 1.2865
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.465 51.46% -1.153 1.0721
Unnatural Proliferation 135 41.1 -1.398 63.7% -0.404 1.6766
Untended Land Crumbles 116 37.53 -3.261 53.45% -0.915 1.1873

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.108 0.0% -0.452 -1.4648
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.108 0.0% -0.452 -1.3464
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.108 0.0% -0.452 -1.2929
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.108 0.0% -0.452 -1.2912
East 13790 29.83% 49.74 4.85 76.92% 0.998 0.4221
Northeast 11937 30.08% 50.25 0.677 76.28% 0.045 -0.4792
Northwest 11573 29.79% 50.49 0.864 76.45% 0.146 -0.4494
Southeast 2364 31.19% 44.77 -0.753 77.54% 0.168 -0.4614
Southwest 2297 32.14% 43.79 -1.349 76.97% -0.09 -0.2887
West 13687 29.73% 49.81 3.005 77.03% 0.642 0.3144

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 101 0.0% 33.07 -8.609 60.4% -2.105 -0.052
Not Using Events or Tokens 590 47.09% 46.26 -0.11 65.76% -0.506 -0.2911
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2672 6.46% 64.56 4.371 94.54% 0.821 0.135
Start of Game Growth 3735 6.08% 64.44 5.812 93.39% 1.288 0.8194
Unlimited Undo 1838 14.6% 63.61 2.802 88.41% 0.006 -0.4168
Using Tokens but Not Events 1062 19.28% 50.61 0.293 82.11% 0.055 0.0036

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3094 22.37 38.3%
II 5226 30.88 80.02%
III 3832 34.39 93.08%
IV 1761 37.55 98.92%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 844
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2320
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2405
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1361
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32
Lose: Adversary condition 1661
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 385
Win: Scenario condition 1191
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1075
Lose: Spirit destroyed 84

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)