Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 55 20.0% 40.44 -1.406 92.73% -0.027 0.2535
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 45 22.73% 43.78 0.5 86.67% -0.408 -0.0179
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 79 40.51% 47.3 3.261 83.54% -0.638 0.2328
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 67 52.24% 46.1 1.241 64.18% -1.904 -0.6474
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 88 62.5% 46.86 1.011 56.82% -2.779 -1.2502
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 32 62.5% 50.38 2.951 56.25% -2.135 -0.1084
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 62 48.39% 51.82 0.82 48.39% -3.765 -1.6945
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 307 20.85% 36.01 -3.257 94.14% 0.577 0.6145
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 170 39.88% 37.26 -1.744 86.47% -0.009 -0.0392
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 334 44.79% 48.23 2.62 88.02% -0.009 -0.004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 244 40.33% 55.15 5.713 86.07% -0.357 -0.0658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 282 43.06% 57.12 6.014 86.52% -0.456 -0.0946
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 134 30.6% 64.23 7.401 80.6% -1.514 -0.6857
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 256 70.59% 57.81 5.656 54.69% -2.227 -0.9824
The Kingdom of England 0 1 213 21.6% 31.79 -5.693 77.0% -1.198 -0.8667
The Kingdom of England 1 3 150 41.61% 41.33 -0.599 74.67% -0.979 -0.4784
The Kingdom of England 2 4 219 47.91% 37.89 -2.355 58.45% -1.95 -0.9802
The Kingdom of England 3 6 281 51.25% 37.26 -3.138 39.5% -2.975 -1.3965
The Kingdom of England 4 7 251 50.2% 48.77 0.611 56.18% -2.644 -1.1427
The Kingdom of England 5 9 190 21.58% 65.23 6.978 74.21% -2.618 -0.5478
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1245 25.78% 67.42 8.209 69.16% -2.785 -0.5337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1019 5.4% 56.93 1.931 98.23% 0.509 1.0344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 145 50.69% 37.1 -1.998 73.1% -1.025 -0.1316
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 431 17.87% 50.61 2.09 71.23% -1.905 0.2245
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 265 36.5% 39.66 -3.35 32.08% -3.746 -1.5592
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 217 38.71% 45.03 -1.63 39.17% -3.666 -1.5239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 221 18.06% 63.29 4.722 65.16% -3.141 -1.3178
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1086 29.65% 56.15 3.58 47.51% -3.635 -1.5194
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 322 31.03% 32.05 -4.103 93.48% 0.543 0.6315
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 240 44.17% 36.46 -1.694 90.0% 0.385 0.4042
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 234 41.2% 39.04 -1.519 83.33% -0.537 -0.3141
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 170 41.76% 50.17 2.594 77.06% -1.103 -0.8169
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 102 62.75% 41.81 -0.861 55.88% -1.992 -1.224
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 53 58.49% 48.25 1.166 58.49% -2.103 -0.9423
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 824 25.46% 66.27 6.854 82.52% -1.924 -0.7916
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 56 16.07% 35.73 -3.818 98.21% 0.693 0.5734
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 31 41.94% 42.58 1.097 90.32% 0.27 0.9886
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 67 14.93% 53.36 4.327 92.54% -0.182 0.2601
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 42 54.76% 47.4 2.784 64.29% -1.531 -0.2804
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 39 43.59% 58.79 5.723 84.62% -1.014 0.1098
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 52.45 3.69 54.55% -1.785 0.261
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 109 54.13% 61.28 5.274 50.46% -3.627 -1.6932

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 269 41.79% 33.91 -4.225 71.0% -0.546 0.0348
Dahan Insurrection 4 1082 27.96% 68.04 11.054 75.05% 0.579 0.9826
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 48.5 1.184 100.0% 0.121 0.4707
Elemental Invocation 1 63 50.79% 31.14 -5.212 60.32% -1.02 -0.6473
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2725 8.12% 64.88 7.757 85.1% 0.996 1.3602
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1004 6.98% 57.27 2.241 95.12% -0.454 -0.0123
Rituals of Terror 3 72 45.71% 47.28 2.183 68.06% -0.57 0.0641
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 80.0% 38.42 -1.372 45.0% -1.188 -0.5477
Second Wave 0 516 41.83% 34.77 -3.353 73.84% -0.782 -0.3583
Ward the Shores 2 327 33.33% 48.19 0.661 61.77% -0.932 0.109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 340 40.91 -2.882 52.35% -0.886 1.1847
Aid From Lesser Spirits 344 40.32 -2.786 54.65% -0.803 1.1187
All Things Weaken 106 36.74 -3.246 51.89% -1.303 0.851
Back Against the Wall 355 39.24 -3.643 52.68% -1.164 0.9327
Disintegrating Ecosystem 339 36.97 -4.361 54.28% -0.968 1.2582
Downward Spiral 453 40.91 -2.539 61.37% -0.586 1.4324
Erosion of Will 368 38.2 -3.757 51.09% -1.163 1.0474
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 53 40.77 -0.866 83.02% 0.254 0.9473
Memory Fades to Dust 428 38.2 -3.819 53.27% -1.06 1.1549
Power Corrodes the Spirit 99 34.36 -4.148 55.56% -0.931 1.0863
Promising Farmlands 299 37.63 -4.423 48.83% -1.019 1.1944
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 43 40.67 -2.237 62.79% -0.552 -0.1221
Thriving Communities 112 35.41 -3.303 58.04% -0.872 1.2238
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.302 51.46% -1.097 1.1247
Unnatural Proliferation 108 39.45 -1.762 60.19% -0.497 1.5897
Untended Land Crumbles 90 36.74 -3.446 46.67% -1.066 1.0299

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.087 0.0% -0.481 -1.9091
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.087 0.0% -0.481 -1.7795
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.087 0.0% -0.481 -1.7348
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.087 0.0% -0.481 -1.7378
East 12235 30.44% 48.98 4.838 75.74% 1.076 0.1165
Northeast 10774 30.66% 49.58 0.66 75.2% 0.051 -0.8496
Northwest 10502 30.28% 49.91 1.067 75.44% 0.194 -0.7813
Southeast 1854 32.27% 42.85 -0.703 76.16% 0.21 -0.7942
Southwest 1812 32.8% 41.66 -1.523 75.39% -0.064 -0.6636
West 12159 30.28% 49.03 2.544 75.81% 0.557 -0.1429

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 91 0.0% 32.86 -8.659 59.34% -2.166 -0.1178
Not Using Events or Tokens 540 46.65% 45.83 -0.196 64.81% -0.538 -0.3176
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2238 7.5% 62.95 4.267 93.97% 0.809 0.1041
Start of Game Growth 3212 6.89% 63.44 5.994 92.96% 1.381 0.9295
Unlimited Undo 1496 16.12% 61.45 2.62 87.17% -0.028 -0.4446
Using Tokens but Not Events 889 21.57% 48.29 0.019 80.09% 0.018 -0.0334

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2800 22.33 35.86%
II 4558 30.75 78.98%
III 3381 34.25 92.9%
IV 1596 37.47 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 663
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1934
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1959
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1198
Lose: Invader deck ran out 30
Lose: Adversary condition 1563
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 346
Win: Scenario condition 1014
Lose: Blight pool ran out 995
Lose: Spirit destroyed 79

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)