Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 60.0% 22.2 60.0% -0.454 -0.7387
Blitz 0 377 46.38% 35.05 75.07% 0.535 0.6957 -0.8
Dahan Insurrection 4 1357 22.64% 68.05 76.79% -0.226 -0.6064 1.461
Despicable Theft 2 15 26.67% 30.53 53.33% -0.992 -0.2242 -0.064
Elemental Invocation 1 119 36.97% 32.38 73.11% 0.418 1.1432 -1.062
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2717 8.03% 65.33 85.57% 0.342 -0.2892 1.642
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1155 4.85% 58.1 96.28% 0.905 1.5121 -0.316
Rituals of Terror 3 145 27.97% 101.5 84.14% 0.686 0.8454 2.814
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 56.25% 37.72 65.63% -0.33 0.7319 -0.504
Second Wave 0 557 37.16% 32.48 78.28% -0.488 -0.4104 -0.347
Varied Terrains 2 12 41.67% 37.0 41.67% 0.3 0.924 -0.917
Ward the Shores 2 284 34.15% 46.82 66.9% 0.726 1.7684 -0.922

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 406 40.61 53.45% 0.625 0.8556 0.063
Aid From Lesser Spirits 439 39.9 55.13% -0.071 -0.1453 -0.055
All Things Weaken 183 38.99 54.1% -0.823 -0.4554 -0.444
Attenuated Essence 8 30.75 50.0% 0.183 0.2731 -0.624
Back Against the Wall 447 40.83 55.26% -0.172 -0.1205 -0.027
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 30.33 33.33% 0.27 0.4872
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 34.86 71.43% 0.714 0.8826
Disintegrating Ecosystem 422 38.0 56.87% 0.669 1.0735 -0.325
Downward Spiral 580 41.14 61.55% 1.084 1.3246 0.118
Erosion of Will 459 38.43 51.63% -0.239 0.0653 -0.218
Intensifying Exploitation 5 21.8 20.0% -1.053 -0.7747 -0.209
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 101 42.24 83.17% 0.033 -0.4561 0.118
Memory Fades to Dust 559 39.04 56.17% 1.031 1.37 -0.143
Power Corrodes the Spirit 180 36.9 56.67% 0.632 0.855 -0.557
Promising Farmlands 367 37.29 49.86% 0.793 1.252 -0.868
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 47.5 83.33% 0.835 0.8692 0.118
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 29.75 25.0% -0.461 -0.0661 -0.595
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 82 42.44 74.39% 0.26 -0.4295 -0.032
The Border of Life and Death 3 17.0 33.33% -0.07 -0.4032
Thriving Communities 213 36.94 58.69% -0.746 -0.4018 -0.343
Thriving Crops 3 19.0 33.33% -0.347 -0.5344 -0.481
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.524
Unnatural Proliferation 204 42.32 63.24% 0.475 0.652 0.606
Untended Land Crumbles 163 35.72 53.37% 0.756 1.0165 -0.099

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16870 30.02% 49.27 76.19% 0.415 0.9974 -0.097
Northeast 14276 29.82% 50.03 75.86% 0.067 0.7515 0.171
Northwest 13801 29.48% 50.28 76.08% 0.075 0.9056 -0.044
Southeast 3087 32.69% 44.59 76.32% 0.379 1.128 0.057
Southwest 3013 33.21% 43.54 75.64% -0.368 0.6268 -0.317
West 16869 30.02% 49.27 76.19% -0.597 0.3541 0.175

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 146 0.0% 30.55 52.05% -0.913 -0.1277 -2.331
Not Using Events or Tokens 786 43.71% 45.39 66.03% 0.192 0.5491 -0.43
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3085 5.92% 64.24 94.68% -0.015 -0.6521 -0.601
Start of Game Growth 4272 6.15% 63.78 92.88% -0.242 -0.5381 0.891
Unlimited Undo 2064 14.84% 62.46 87.45% 0.125 0.1065 0.284
Using Tokens but Not Events 1549 22.06% 50.97 82.25% 0.097 0.0508 1.36

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3820 20.49 37.02%
II 6220 31.02 79.73%
III 4677 34.76 92.88%
IV 2215 38.06 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1414
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3929
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3851
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2177
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 185
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 1936
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 467
Win: Scenario condition 1528
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1291
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)