Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 75.0% 27.75 75.0% 0.39 0.7934
Blitz 0 329 46.32% 35.28 75.38% -0.006 0.4092 -0.791
Dahan Insurrection 4 1256 23.75% 70.17 79.06% 1.072 1.2868 1.506
Despicable Theft 2 8 25.0% 43.13 87.5% -0.057
Elemental Invocation 1 107 36.45% 32.97 73.83% 0.278 0.9069 -1.066
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2589 6.69% 66.37 87.33% -0.944 -0.7057 1.822
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1094 5.03% 58.17 96.34% 0.71 1.1372 -0.003
Rituals of Terror 3 134 25.76% 103.23 86.57% 0.742 0.4101 2.867
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 30 60.0% 40.23 70.0% -0.495 -0.5457 -0.358
Second Wave 0 542 37.08% 32.71 79.15% -0.206 0.4504 0.126
Varied Terrains 2 7 28.57% 36.43 28.57% -0.77 -0.0224 -0.837
Ward the Shores 2 278 33.45% 46.97 66.91% -0.683 0.1985 -0.944

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 394 40.25 52.54% 0.206 2.1901 -0.184
Aid From Lesser Spirits 429 40.33 55.48% -0.408 1.3543 -0.046
All Things Weaken 173 38.53 54.34% -0.737 1.2824 -0.548
Back Against the Wall 438 40.8 55.02% 0.159 2.0897 -0.307
Disintegrating Ecosystem 413 38.0 56.9% 0.061 2.1957 -0.445
Downward Spiral 552 41.1 60.69% 0.077 2.0787 0.012
Erosion of Will 441 38.61 51.7% -0.03 2.0504 -0.316
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 97 42.71 84.54% 0.165 0.6411 0.125
Memory Fades to Dust 539 38.91 56.03% -0.496 1.6624 -0.188
Power Corrodes the Spirit 170 36.01 56.47% -1.174 0.803 -0.63
Promising Farmlands 360 37.29 49.72% 0.053 2.1035 -0.89
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 75 42.4 74.67% 0.012 0.5282 -0.255
Thriving Communities 198 37.66 60.1% -0.816 1.2252 -0.177
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.645
Unnatural Proliferation 187 42.9 63.64% 0.6 2.5496 0.59
Untended Land Crumbles 153 35.81 52.94% -0.339 1.7008 -0.093

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16098 30.05% 49.89 77.03% -0.363 0.2737 0.06
Northeast 13660 29.94% 50.6 76.55% 0.143 0.8 0.071
Northwest 13214 29.63% 50.85 76.77% -0.097 0.5323 0.015
Southeast 2920 32.34% 45.27 77.6% 0.512 1.0423 0.061
Southwest 2824 32.8% 44.33 77.27% -0.396 0.6202 -0.406
West 16097 30.06% 49.89 77.03% 0.226 1.0325 0.144

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 140 0.0% 31.49 53.57% -2.365
Not Using Events or Tokens 709 46.3% 46.15 66.01% 0.692 0.8969 -0.568
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3015 6.02% 64.41 94.76% 0.633 -0.2701 -0.547
Start of Game Growth 4192 6.14% 63.98 93.06% 1.039 0.5715 0.8
Unlimited Undo 2026 14.52% 63.02 87.96% 0.226 -0.3659 0.221
Using Tokens but Not Events 1458 21.05% 52.04 83.13% -0.24 -0.0949 1.354

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3533 22.64 38.83%
II 6020 31.07 80.03%
III 4487 34.65 92.87%
IV 2120 37.9 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1372
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3762
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3752
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2084
Lose: Invader deck ran out 37
Lose: Adversary condition 1875
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 434
Win: Scenario condition 1476
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1257
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-16 03:17:35 (Pacific Time)