Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 75.0% 27.75 75.0%
Blitz 0 357 45.89% 35.21 75.07% 0.508 0.7994 -0.793
Dahan Insurrection 4 1315 22.91% 69.1 77.87% 0.361 0.118 1.474
Despicable Theft 2 12 25.0% 36.42 66.67% -1.186 -0.5618 -0.072
Elemental Invocation 1 111 38.74% 33.02 73.87% 0.016 0.84 -1.086
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2653 7.4% 65.86 86.36% 0.144 -0.3667 1.727
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1135 4.94% 58.23 96.48% 1.14 1.5266 0.017
Rituals of Terror 3 143 27.66% 101.81 84.62% 0.39 0.1883 2.811
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 31 58.06% 38.94 67.74% -0.159 0.6523 -0.419
Second Wave 0 550 37.27% 32.56 78.73% -0.073 0.0651 -0.067
Varied Terrains 2 9 44.44% 36.78 44.44% 0.293 0.8049 -0.692
Ward the Shores 2 282 34.04% 46.8 66.67% -0.118 0.8155 -0.922

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 400 40.51 53.25% 1.131 1.8568 -0.03
Aid From Lesser Spirits 434 40.14 55.3% -0.298 0.2181 -0.024
All Things Weaken 181 39.42 54.7% 0.287 1.1311 -0.539
Attenuated Essence 2 50.5 100.0% 0.498 1.2111 0.372
Back Against the Wall 442 40.75 54.98% -0.054 0.5396 -0.182
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 49.0 100.0% 0.256 1.2944
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 30.67 66.67% -0.051 0.7744
Disintegrating Ecosystem 421 37.93 56.77% 0.048 0.9728 -0.408
Downward Spiral 568 40.93 60.92% 0.379 1.1202 -0.005
Erosion of Will 451 38.64 51.66% -0.017 0.8436 -0.169
Intensifying Exploitation 3 31.67 33.33% -0.478 0.5264 -0.217
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 99 42.42 82.83% -0.585 -0.7837 -0.008
Memory Fades to Dust 549 38.9 55.74% -0.643 0.2428 -0.182
Power Corrodes the Spirit 174 36.21 56.32% 0.111 0.8073 -0.682
Promising Farmlands 363 37.23 49.59% -0.048 0.9012 -0.907
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 33.0 100.0% 0.338 1.0202
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 34.33 33.33% -0.714 0.3485 -0.633
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 77 42.36 75.32% 0.623 0.177 -0.181
The Border of Life and Death 2 25.5 50.0% -0.182 0.0602
Thriving Communities 208 37.71 60.1% 0.12 1.0478 -0.237
Thriving Crops 2 9.5 0.0% -0.435 0.1638 -0.47
Tipping Point 206 37.89 51.46% -0.577
Unnatural Proliferation 197 42.92 62.94% -0.174 0.5431 0.596
Untended Land Crumbles 159 35.82 53.46% 0.112 0.9002 -0.062

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 32 50.0% 22.94 90.63%
B 32 43.75% 25.31 93.75%
C 35 42.86% 22.86 88.57%
D 38 39.47% 23.95 89.47%
E 36 52.78% 21.83 80.56%
F 43 44.19% 23.67 88.37%
G 43 41.86% 23.35 88.37%
H 40 52.5% 22.93 85.0%
East 16504 30.06% 49.63 76.64% 0.076 0.8957 -0.162
Northeast 13988 29.86% 50.39 76.29% 1.013 1.9377 0.186
Northwest 13526 29.54% 50.62 76.47% -0.827 -0.2111 -0.05
Southeast 3005 32.69% 44.91 76.84% 0.264 0.9751 0.093
Southwest 2917 33.17% 43.96 76.31% -0.631 0.6415 -0.338
West 16503 30.06% 49.63 76.64% 0.076 1.1737 0.215

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 141 0.0% 31.48 53.9% 0.054 1.3051 -2.355
Not Using Events or Tokens 735 45.23% 46.11 66.39% 0.286 0.5201 -0.478
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3059 5.94% 64.32 94.8% 1.019 0.4129 -0.467
Start of Game Growth 4244 6.14% 63.86 93.0% -0.316 -0.7714 0.873
Unlimited Undo 2049 14.9% 62.63 87.65% 0.103 -0.0885 0.247
Using Tokens but Not Events 1506 21.54% 51.33 82.47% -0.185 -0.2211 1.368

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3682 21.93 38.16%
II 6125 31.09 79.87%
III 4587 34.71 92.81%
IV 2172 37.98 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1405
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3847
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3798
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2136
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 75
Lose: Invader deck ran out 41
Lose: Adversary condition 1908
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 455
Win: Scenario condition 1509
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1281
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-15 02:23:33 (Pacific Time)