Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 72 19.44% 38.86 -2.397 88.89% -0.526 -0.2421
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 58 24.56% 44.81 0.546 87.93% -0.379 0.0319
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 92 44.57% 47.66 3.066 82.61% -0.777 0.0994
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 77 55.84% 45.45 1.035 63.64% -1.892 -0.6466
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 104 61.54% 47.02 0.834 56.73% -2.796 -1.2937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 32 62.5% 50.38 2.569 56.25% -2.172 -0.2184
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 130 28.46% 63.51 3.223 69.23% -3.569 -1.5259
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 329 20.97% 35.8 -3.44 93.62% 0.437 0.4795
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 186 39.67% 37.44 -1.819 87.63% 0.019 -0.0
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 369 42.78% 48.23 2.373 87.53% -0.146 -0.1333
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 266 40.0% 55.44 5.535 86.84% -0.37 -0.0825
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 317 42.09% 57.08 5.994 87.38% -0.443 -0.0761
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 154 31.82% 64.38 7.505 81.82% -1.448 -0.6217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 265 71.21% 57.95 5.488 54.72% -2.264 -1.0258
The Kingdom of England 0 1 237 21.52% 31.71 -6.06 76.79% -1.286 -0.9543
The Kingdom of England 1 3 168 41.32% 41.4 -0.665 75.0% -1.006 -0.4927
The Kingdom of England 2 4 233 47.79% 38.18 -2.352 59.23% -1.921 -0.9535
The Kingdom of England 3 6 287 51.57% 37.34 -3.296 39.72% -2.996 -1.4171
The Kingdom of England 4 7 269 51.3% 49.67 0.915 58.74% -2.519 -1.0203
The Kingdom of England 5 9 205 20.0% 65.23 6.673 74.15% -2.725 -0.6521
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1405 24.13% 68.44 8.369 70.82% -2.725 -0.4769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1140 5.09% 57.17 1.811 98.33% 0.508 1.0219
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 158 49.68% 37.32 -2.191 74.05% -1.065 -0.1658
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 460 17.17% 51.14 2.077 71.96% -1.934 0.209
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 281 36.2% 39.18 -3.78 31.32% -3.847 -1.6508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 222 38.29% 44.58 -2.059 38.29% -3.746 -1.588
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 242 18.99% 62.79 4.409 64.46% -3.133 -1.3156
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1136 29.4% 56.83 3.632 48.77% -3.612 -1.5153
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 364 32.13% 31.65 -4.268 93.68% 0.539 0.6238
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 250 42.8% 36.6 -1.863 90.0% 0.3 0.3333
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 245 41.8% 39.28 -1.646 83.67% -0.555 -0.3204
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 185 41.62% 51.15 2.855 78.38% -1.066 -0.7788
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 105 62.86% 41.49 -1.16 55.24% -2.065 -1.2812
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 60.71% 46.79 0.527 55.36% -2.24 -1.074
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 938 27.06% 66.4 6.935 84.01% -1.765 -0.6411
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 60 16.67% 35.85 -3.9 98.33% 0.741 0.6398
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 39 46.15% 40.92 -0.009 84.62% -0.232 0.5473
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 94 18.09% 53.24 3.73 91.49% -0.319 0.1005
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 46 58.7% 45.65 2.031 60.87% -1.697 -0.4432
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 49 38.78% 60.14 5.743 87.76% -0.881 0.2356
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 14 92.86% 46.79 1.864 42.86% -2.24 -0.2409
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 186 33.87% 72.76 7.608 68.28% -3.492 -1.6134

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 286 42.25% 34.38 -4.175 72.03% -0.478 0.0908
Dahan Insurrection 4 1219 26.87% 68.71 11.163 76.87% 0.61 1.0078
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 45.0 0.701 100.0% 0.237 0.5062
Elemental Invocation 1 82 40.24% 32.3 -4.808 68.29% -0.848 -0.3841
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3132 7.32% 66.0 7.702 85.95% 0.944 1.3107
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1119 6.35% 57.6 2.139 95.62% -0.412 0.0325
Rituals of Terror 3 74 44.44% 47.76 2.192 68.92% -0.56 0.0855
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 80.0% 38.42 -1.532 45.0% -1.194 -0.5484
Second Wave 0 566 41.13% 34.33 -3.607 74.73% -0.757 -0.3284
Ward the Shores 2 353 32.86% 47.9 0.5 62.04% -0.911 0.1225

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 361 40.77 -3.063 52.91% -0.972 1.101
Aid From Lesser Spirits 369 40.25 -2.909 55.28% -0.842 1.076
All Things Weaken 124 36.92 -3.472 54.03% -1.234 0.9361
Back Against the Wall 380 40.16 -3.492 53.42% -1.196 0.8954
Disintegrating Ecosystem 366 37.11 -4.41 55.46% -0.987 1.2375
Downward Spiral 476 40.84 -2.721 60.92% -0.667 1.3564
Erosion of Will 388 38.74 -3.662 52.58% -1.16 1.049
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 63 41.71 -0.921 84.13% 0.245 0.9318
Memory Fades to Dust 464 38.22 -3.895 54.96% -1.053 1.1662
Power Corrodes the Spirit 121 35.67 -3.913 57.02% -0.916 1.1075
Promising Farmlands 317 37.56 -4.639 49.21% -1.114 1.0999
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 55 41.18 -1.862 70.91% -0.332 0.0779
Thriving Communities 139 36.68 -3.2 58.27% -0.845 1.2502
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.438 51.46% -1.15 1.0759
Unnatural Proliferation 131 40.48 -1.608 63.36% -0.434 1.6525
Untended Land Crumbles 113 36.96 -3.453 52.21% -0.959 1.1466

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.084 0.0% -0.444 -1.5328
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.084 0.0% -0.444 -1.4092
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.084 0.0% -0.444 -1.3581
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.084 0.0% -0.444 -1.3584
East 13550 29.86% 49.65 4.977 76.8% 1.007 0.3575
Northeast 11747 30.12% 50.17 0.693 76.21% 0.051 -0.5476
Northwest 11397 29.84% 50.4 0.872 76.33% 0.135 -0.5347
Southeast 2297 31.05% 44.6 -0.762 77.41% 0.142 -0.5644
Southwest 2231 31.93% 43.62 -1.357 76.96% -0.08 -0.3529
West 13450 29.74% 49.72 2.932 76.9% 0.621 0.2223

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 99 0.0% 32.75 -8.768 59.6% -2.106 -0.0493
Not Using Events or Tokens 575 47.11% 46.24 -0.08 65.39% -0.509 -0.2932
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2620 6.59% 64.48 4.323 94.43% 0.809 0.1225
Start of Game Growth 3659 6.18% 64.47 5.859 93.3% 1.281 0.8112
Unlimited Undo 1801 14.84% 63.65 2.875 88.23% 0.017 -0.4031
Using Tokens but Not Events 1041 19.08% 50.38 0.245 81.94% 0.036 -0.0164

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3034 22.35 38.0%
II 5131 30.84 79.85%
III 3763 34.35 93.06%
IV 1741 37.52 98.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 812
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2260
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2350
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1341
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32
Lose: Adversary condition 1636
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 377
Win: Scenario condition 1156
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 84

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)