Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 49 20.41% 40.65 -1.244 93.88% 0.163 0.4439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 20.51% 44.02 0.361 87.5% -0.452 -0.0792
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 72 40.28% 46.44 3.055 81.94% -0.692 0.1551
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 52 51.92% 46.6 1.545 65.38% -1.812 -0.5742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 81 66.67% 45.48 0.862 54.32% -2.766 -1.2434
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 29 68.97% 48.45 2.565 51.72% -2.106 -0.078
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 39 69.23% 41.74 -0.628 30.77% -3.564 -1.4717
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 291 20.96% 36.15 -3.196 94.5% 0.647 0.6939
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 158 39.1% 37.11 -1.745 86.08% 0.003 -0.0254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 304 45.61% 47.89 2.692 88.16% 0.054 0.051
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 221 40.0% 55.15 5.929 86.43% -0.26 0.0241
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 239 41.6% 57.06 5.658 84.52% -0.63 -0.2516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 123 31.71% 64.27 7.57 80.49% -1.421 -0.5876
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 250 71.49% 57.72 5.74 54.4% -2.188 -0.9386
The Kingdom of England 0 1 194 21.13% 31.26 -5.762 75.77% -1.231 -0.898
The Kingdom of England 1 3 141 42.14% 41.45 -0.388 75.89% -0.844 -0.3612
The Kingdom of England 2 4 203 46.23% 38.62 -2.027 59.61% -1.888 -0.9303
The Kingdom of England 3 6 273 51.28% 37.25 -3.0 39.19% -2.938 -1.3603
The Kingdom of England 4 7 245 49.39% 48.92 0.836 56.33% -2.586 -1.0637
The Kingdom of England 5 9 177 23.16% 65.48 7.294 74.58% -2.453 -0.3891
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1069 28.25% 66.03 7.993 66.6% -2.808 -0.5522
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 832 5.9% 56.46 1.897 97.96% 0.434 0.9583
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 136 49.63% 37.05 -1.96 73.53% -1.009 -0.1174
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 381 17.32% 50.77 2.238 71.92% -1.852 0.2764
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 231 35.65% 40.79 -2.953 33.77% -3.668 -1.4814
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 207 39.61% 45.54 -1.303 40.1% -3.579 -1.4335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 207 18.32% 63.15 4.931 64.73% -3.115 -1.297
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1028 30.16% 55.56 3.546 46.5% -3.602 -1.4667
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 283 31.07% 32.33 -3.961 93.29% 0.557 0.6419
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 233 44.21% 36.47 -1.579 90.13% 0.415 0.425
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 221 41.36% 38.86 -1.528 82.35% -0.575 -0.3583
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 162 42.59% 49.65 2.533 75.93% -1.115 -0.83
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 95 66.32% 41.35 -0.786 54.74% -1.907 -1.1301
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 60.0% 47.56 0.94 56.0% -2.181 -1.0163
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 769 25.72% 66.2 7.0 81.92% -1.905 -0.772
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 49 16.33% 36.08 -3.496 97.96% 0.628 0.5107
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 29 37.93% 42.28 1.17 89.66% 0.216 0.9048
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 56 16.07% 51.95 3.955 91.07% -0.32 0.116
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 39 53.85% 48.64 3.211 66.67% -1.466 -0.1908
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 30 46.67% 57.73 6.032 83.33% -0.868 0.2893
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 52.45 3.835 54.55% -1.758 0.2782
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 66 59.09% 58.39 4.225 46.97% -3.647 -1.6971

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 259 41.47% 34.08 -4.081 71.43% -0.506 0.067
Dahan Insurrection 4 980 28.63% 68.03 11.066 74.39% 0.591 0.9919
Elemental Invocation 1 19 26.32% 31.21 -5.495 73.68% -0.897 -0.4314
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2380 8.71% 64.07 7.705 84.24% 0.99 1.3654
Powers Long Forgotten 1 829 7.97% 56.71 2.221 94.33% -0.496 -0.0493
Rituals of Terror 3 70 45.59% 47.77 2.397 68.57% -0.49 0.1319
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 59 79.66% 38.29 -1.401 44.07% -1.244 -0.6202
Second Wave 0 486 43.8% 34.78 -3.292 72.84% -0.807 -0.3883
Ward the Shores 2 315 33.65% 48.61 0.918 62.22% -0.855 0.1761

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 315 40.77 -2.861 51.43% -0.881 1.1873
Aid From Lesser Spirits 326 40.32 -2.679 54.91% -0.788 1.1288
All Things Weaken 90 36.33 -3.504 48.89% -1.464 0.6961
Back Against the Wall 329 39.33 -3.418 52.58% -1.099 0.9936
Disintegrating Ecosystem 325 37.0 -4.275 54.15% -0.939 1.2824
Downward Spiral 424 41.04 -2.392 61.32% -0.566 1.4479
Erosion of Will 349 37.95 -3.782 50.43% -1.164 1.0471
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 39.46 -1.308 78.05% -0.004 0.7083
Memory Fades to Dust 402 38.48 -3.632 53.48% -1.022 1.1937
Power Corrodes the Spirit 86 33.78 -4.189 55.81% -1.032 0.9878
Promising Farmlands 281 37.52 -4.41 48.4% -1.011 1.2031
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 38 42.42 -1.653 63.16% -0.451 -0.0342
Thriving Communities 86 36.43 -2.749 56.98% -0.893 1.2141
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.178 51.46% -1.064 1.1518
Unnatural Proliferation 91 39.62 -1.417 59.34% -0.515 1.5656
Untended Land Crumbles 77 36.68 -3.348 45.45% -1.002 1.0933

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.1 0.0% -0.473 -1.8695
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.1 0.0% -0.473 -1.7295
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.1 0.0% -0.473 -1.6987
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.1 0.0% -0.473 -1.6942
East 11051 31.2% 48.5 4.78 74.99% 1.166 0.2304
Northeast 9891 31.38% 49.09 0.616 74.32% -0.091 -0.9602
Northwest 9660 31.02% 49.39 1.043 74.61% 0.275 -0.6706
Southeast 1510 33.47% 41.89 -0.592 76.36% 0.269 -0.7138
Southwest 1468 34.22% 40.45 -1.567 75.34% -0.091 -0.716
West 10980 31.07% 48.55 2.166 75.05% 0.463 -0.2019

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 83 0.0% 33.73 -8.297 60.24% -2.074 -0.0352
Not Using Events or Tokens 505 46.75% 46.36 0.003 64.55% -0.527 -0.3067
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1878 8.35% 62.15 4.264 93.77% 0.897 0.1914
Start of Game Growth 2776 7.36% 62.97 6.08 92.87% 1.424 0.9651
Unlimited Undo 1309 17.21% 59.91 2.388 86.55% -0.127 -0.5297
Using Tokens but Not Events 792 23.61% 47.49 0.096 78.91% 0.021 -0.025

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2495 22.34 32.99%
II 4070 30.71 78.08%
III 3107 34.23 92.73%
IV 1469 37.48 98.98%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 482
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1694
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1606
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1076
Lose: Invader deck ran out 29
Lose: Adversary condition 1462
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 315
Win: Scenario condition 925
Lose: Blight pool ran out 923
Lose: Spirit destroyed 76

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)