Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 64 20.31% 40.0 -1.707 92.19% -0.103 0.175
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 53 23.08% 44.58 0.596 86.79% -0.444 -0.0498
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 88 43.18% 47.28 3.0 81.82% -0.807 0.0709
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 73 54.79% 45.26 1.029 63.01% -1.92 -0.6684
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 93 61.29% 46.55 0.672 55.91% -2.847 -1.3253
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 32 62.5% 50.38 2.728 56.25% -2.18 -0.2024
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 104 34.62% 58.9 2.206 61.54% -3.714 -1.6646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 321 21.18% 35.95 -3.33 94.08% 0.544 0.5845
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 182 40.0% 37.39 -1.733 87.36% 0.03 0.0008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 356 43.97% 48.41 2.547 87.64% -0.095 -0.0898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 257 41.02% 55.16 5.589 86.38% -0.369 -0.0803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 303 43.71% 57.03 6.093 87.13% -0.401 -0.034
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 141 29.79% 64.06 7.2 80.14% -1.609 -0.7794
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 263 70.99% 57.87 5.52 54.37% -2.273 -1.0317
The Kingdom of England 0 1 223 21.08% 31.68 -5.972 76.68% -1.282 -0.949
The Kingdom of England 1 3 162 41.61% 41.33 -0.625 74.69% -0.994 -0.4904
The Kingdom of England 2 4 222 48.17% 37.84 -2.441 58.56% -1.956 -0.988
The Kingdom of England 3 6 284 51.41% 37.17 -3.269 39.44% -2.989 -1.4113
The Kingdom of England 4 7 259 51.35% 49.17 0.723 57.14% -2.588 -1.0897
The Kingdom of England 5 9 195 21.03% 65.29 6.843 74.36% -2.652 -0.5853
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1335 24.72% 68.14 8.328 70.26% -2.758 -0.5026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1043 5.37% 56.95 1.859 98.27% 0.526 1.0409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 152 50.99% 36.86 -2.251 73.03% -1.07 -0.1739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 451 17.52% 51.23 2.251 72.28% -1.885 0.2517
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 280 36.33% 39.24 -3.649 31.43% -3.832 -1.6473
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 221 38.46% 44.67 -1.931 38.46% -3.73 -1.5833
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 232 18.5% 63.51 4.638 65.95% -3.113 -1.2933
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1114 29.62% 56.48 3.598 48.11% -3.633 -1.5265
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 341 31.95% 31.89 -4.142 93.84% 0.594 0.6786
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 244 43.44% 36.48 -1.786 90.16% 0.365 0.3856
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 241 41.67% 39.07 -1.638 83.4% -0.552 -0.3201
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 179 41.34% 50.92 2.762 77.65% -1.101 -0.8151
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 104 63.46% 41.4 -1.115 54.81% -2.061 -1.2841
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 56 60.71% 46.79 0.632 55.36% -2.229 -1.072
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 872 25.09% 66.54 6.833 83.26% -1.891 -0.7591
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 60 16.67% 35.85 -3.795 98.33% 0.756 0.6498
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 38 44.74% 41.68 0.441 86.84% -0.057 0.686
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 82 20.73% 51.67 3.537 90.24% -0.358 0.074
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 45 57.78% 45.44 1.977 60.0% -1.732 -0.4832
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 45 40.0% 59.71 5.82 86.67% -0.888 0.2388
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 13 92.31% 48.46 2.413 46.15% -2.073 -0.0541
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 148 41.22% 68.7 6.887 62.16% -3.512 -1.6067

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 274 42.49% 34.11 -4.246 71.53% -0.487 0.0858
Dahan Insurrection 4 1166 27.41% 68.46 11.188 76.16% 0.629 1.0291
Despicable Theft 2 3 33.33% 45.0 0.556 100.0% 0.228 0.5107
Elemental Invocation 1 72 44.44% 32.03 -5.004 65.28% -0.902 -0.4627
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2944 7.69% 65.64 7.806 85.73% 1.012 1.3782
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1025 6.93% 57.32 2.168 95.22% -0.443 -0.0016
Rituals of Terror 3 72 45.71% 47.28 2.11 68.06% -0.573 0.0708
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 80.0% 38.42 -1.423 45.0% -1.175 -0.5328
Second Wave 0 552 41.82% 34.43 -3.506 74.46% -0.756 -0.3278
Ward the Shores 2 337 33.23% 48.23 0.639 62.61% -0.893 0.144

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 353 40.64 -3.022 52.41% -0.941 1.1323
Aid From Lesser Spirits 360 40.12 -2.878 54.44% -0.822 1.0969
All Things Weaken 114 36.32 -3.604 52.63% -1.291 0.8675
Back Against the Wall 371 39.67 -3.556 53.1% -1.172 0.9216
Disintegrating Ecosystem 354 36.75 -4.471 54.52% -0.991 1.2338
Downward Spiral 468 41.0 -2.639 60.9% -0.635 1.3862
Erosion of Will 380 38.36 -3.735 51.58% -1.161 1.0478
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 58 40.64 -1.244 82.76% 0.167 0.8599
Memory Fades to Dust 452 38.16 -3.866 54.42% -1.038 1.18
Power Corrodes the Spirit 111 34.76 -4.231 56.76% -0.956 1.0648
Promising Farmlands 306 37.63 -4.521 49.02% -1.063 1.1515
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 50 41.26 -1.716 68.0% -0.354 0.0566
Thriving Communities 125 35.62 -3.446 56.0% -0.879 1.2138
Tipping Point 206 37.89 -4.356 51.46% -1.113 1.113
Unnatural Proliferation 121 39.24 -2.04 61.16% -0.536 1.553
Untended Land Crumbles 103 36.28 -3.658 47.57% -1.077 1.0292

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
C 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.109 0.0% -0.485 -1.9239
E 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.109 0.0% -0.485 -1.7968
F 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.109 0.0% -0.485 -1.7502
H 1 0.0% 5.0 -6.109 0.0% -0.485 -1.7504
East 12899 30.3% 49.32 4.878 76.16% 0.977 -0.0033
Northeast 11265 30.54% 49.89 0.685 75.6% 0.056 -0.8751
Northwest 10963 30.19% 50.17 0.972 75.8% 0.248 -0.7513
Southeast 2073 31.66% 43.8 -0.688 76.8% 0.265 -0.7612
Southwest 2030 32.43% 42.52 -1.487 76.01% -0.064 -0.684
West 12818 30.15% 49.37 2.623 76.23% 0.561 -0.1637

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 91 0.0% 32.86 -8.86 59.34% -2.172 -0.1177
Not Using Events or Tokens 558 47.15% 46.3 -0.088 65.05% -0.533 -0.3153
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2411 7.0% 63.91 4.312 94.07% 0.795 0.1018
Start of Game Growth 3414 6.51% 64.08 5.928 93.06% 1.329 0.8658
Unlimited Undo 1679 15.36% 62.69 2.774 87.61% 0.011 -0.4093
Using Tokens but Not Events 971 20.07% 49.95 0.317 81.15% 0.035 -0.0169

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2901 22.34 36.47%
II 4858 30.81 79.23%
III 3581 34.31 92.93%
IV 1673 37.5 98.86%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 717
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2099
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2144
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1275
Lose: Invader deck ran out 32
Lose: Adversary condition 1607
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 358
Win: Scenario condition 1099
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1044
Lose: Spirit destroyed 83

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)