Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 28.57% 28.86 42.86% -0.466 -0.6075 -0.255
Blitz 0 138 53.68% 32.7 47.1% -0.014 0.1677 -0.163
Dahan Insurrection 4 260 37.69% 64.33 61.92% -0.511 -0.6868 0.498
Despicable Theft 2 19 78.95% 40.63 57.89% -0.811 -0.12 0.324
Elemental Invocation 1 56 67.86% 33.95 48.21% 0.683 1.4031 -1.343
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 366 17.53% 46.79 77.87% 0.322 -0.272 2.237
Powers Long Forgotten 1 96 64.58% 33.09 50.0% -1.176 -0.7035 -0.873
Rituals of Terror 3 234 41.88% 79.83 67.09% 0.56 0.4669 0.914
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.312 -0.3858 -0.2
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 0.874 0.9511 0.36
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 34.6 40.0% -0.041 0.45 0.199
Ward the Shores 2 91 48.35% 35.77 54.95% -0.815 0.338 -0.564

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 170 36.1 52.35% 0.467 0.8166 0.252
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.533 0.7078 -0.059
All Things Weaken 89 33.44 46.07% -0.432 0.1044 -0.368
Attenuated Essence 1 29.0 100.0% 0.476 0.8497
Back Against the Wall 192 35.89 50.52% 0.576 0.8588 -0.527
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.389 0.8564
Disintegrating Ecosystem 185 32.37 55.68% 0.266 0.8934 -0.393
Downward Spiral 322 36.65 54.97% -0.372 0.0568 0.369
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% 0.156 0.7305 -0.041
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.92 -0.3558
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 37 36.92 64.86% 0.535 0.0862 -0.358
Memory Fades to Dust 315 36.54 53.02% -0.357 0.2052 0.153
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 33.85 59.77% 0.674 1.0503 -0.611
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -1.186 -0.4933 -0.292
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.294 0.6126
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 37.45 74.19% -0.439 -1.1068 0.302
Thriving Communities 118 34.07 59.32% 0.281 0.8923 0.087
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.02 50.0% -0.028 0.3846 -0.165
Untended Land Crumbles 107 27.89 36.45% 0.671 1.1229 -0.601

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5235 44.29% 39.54 68.23% -0.22 0.3938 0.249
Northeast 3816 42.59% 40.97 69.16% -0.245 0.6458 0.269
Northwest 2695 46.04% 37.65 66.49% 0.045 0.6696 0.086
Southeast 1023 49.36% 35.91 66.76% 0.587 1.2744 -0.751
Southwest 819 52.15% 33.92 68.74% -0.44 0.7301 0.356
West 5054 44.54% 39.45 68.34% 0.256 1.2719 -0.235

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.708
Not Using Events or Tokens 621 40.67% 47.33 69.4% 0.266 0.565 -0.243
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 14.62% 46.25 84.33% 0.987 0.4713 0.014
Start of Game Growth 333 17.07% 43.46 84.98% 0.987 0.6077 0.014
Unlimited Undo 416 37.16% 38.71 71.39% -0.416 -0.4669 0.622
Using Tokens but Not Events 342 34.14% 38.97 70.47% -0.072 -0.1344 -0.073

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 983 21.31 11.5%
II 1656 31.05 61.84%
III 1879 34.72 87.81%
IV 997 38.0 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1503
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 897
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 925
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 79
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 667
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 276
Lose: Blight pool ran out 788
Lose: Spirit destroyed 66

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-24 03:32:57 (Pacific Time)