Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 40.0% 35.5 50.0%
Blitz 0 132 55.38% 32.83 46.97% 0.067 0.5103 -0.273
Dahan Insurrection 4 252 38.1% 65.07 62.3% 0.123 0.2205 0.574
Despicable Theft 2 13 84.62% 51.77 76.92% 0.307
Elemental Invocation 1 53 67.92% 34.45 47.17% -0.491 0.0551 -1.221
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 350 17.77% 46.96 78.29% 0.811 1.0423 2.307
Powers Long Forgotten 1 88 68.18% 34.67 53.41% -0.741
Rituals of Terror 3 208 46.63% 75.3 66.83% 0.76 0.5243 0.918
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 75.0% 41.85 56.25% 0.208
Second Wave 0 265 43.02% 30.12 75.47% -0.302 0.3906 0.363
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 38.33 33.33% -0.343
Ward the Shores 2 87 49.43% 37.41 57.47% 0.128 1.0086 -0.491

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 164 36.01 51.83% -0.524 1.4469 0.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 190 36.17 47.37% -0.758 1.0194 -0.345
All Things Weaken 86 32.17 45.35% 0.04 2.0893 -0.437
Back Against the Wall 188 35.86 50.0% 0.382 2.321 -0.544
Disintegrating Ecosystem 178 32.62 55.62% -0.156 1.9717 -0.342
Downward Spiral 313 36.96 55.59% -1.161 0.8006 0.39
Erosion of Will 188 33.66 46.28% -0.236 1.8456 -0.026
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 37.17 62.86% 0.238 0.7402 -0.412
Memory Fades to Dust 309 36.69 53.4% -0.626 1.5148 0.185
Power Corrodes the Spirit 83 33.08 57.83% -0.374 1.6064 -0.683
Promising Farmlands 192 32.61 51.04% -0.451 1.5707 -0.333
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 37.8 76.67% 0.092 0.5884 0.401
Thriving Communities 109 34.28 58.72% -1.152 0.9071 -0.17
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% -0.007
Unnatural Proliferation 102 33.51 50.98% -0.444 1.5131 -0.173
Untended Land Crumbles 102 28.1 35.29% -0.612 1.4212 -0.54

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 4979 44.91% 39.76 68.91% 0.464 1.1258 0.338
Northeast 3654 43.14% 40.96 69.79% -0.696 -0.0361 0.292
Northwest 2586 46.36% 38.01 66.94% 0.125 0.7351 0.072
Southeast 941 50.48% 36.37 67.27% 0.394 0.9249 -0.676
Southwest 752 52.14% 34.43 69.95% -0.598 0.3702 0.094
West 4802 45.04% 39.66 68.99% 0.326 1.132 -0.147

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.719
Not Using Events or Tokens 599 41.7% 47.77 69.62% 0.237 0.4636 -0.413
Skip Initial Invader Actions 208 14.29% 45.41 83.65% 0.507 -0.4727 -0.352
Start of Game Growth 324 16.93% 42.85 84.57% 0.202 -0.2548 -0.352
Unlimited Undo 382 39.78% 41.01 74.35% 0.082 -0.4695 0.917
Using Tokens but Not Events 322 36.01% 38.29 72.05% -1.085 -0.9296 -0.228

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 892 22.65 12.22%
II 1610 31.08 62.24%
III 1817 34.66 87.84%
IV 925 37.91 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 108
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1450
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 878
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 871
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 652
Win: Sacrifice victory 42
Lose: Scenario condition 107
Win: Scenario condition 272
Lose: Blight pool ran out 766
Lose: Spirit destroyed 64

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)