Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 26.67% 26.93 40.0% -0.826 -1.0821 -0.254
Blitz 0 142 52.14% 32.06 46.48% -0.018 0.1789 -0.135
Dahan Insurrection 4 271 36.9% 63.05 60.89% -0.461 -0.9029 0.498
Despicable Theft 2 21 71.43% 36.76 52.38% -0.903 -0.0906 0.272
Elemental Invocation 1 58 67.24% 32.78 46.55% -0.717 -0.0143 -1.342
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 377 17.02% 46.46 76.66% -0.098 -0.7425 2.202
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 64.95% 32.75 49.48% -1.013 -0.378 -0.832
Rituals of Terror 3 245 40.82% 80.74 66.94% 0.763 0.8644 0.97
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 54 66.67% 38.07 51.85% 0.304 1.3128 -0.206
Second Wave 0 296 41.22% 30.1 75.68% 0.938 1.0037 0.384
Varied Terrains 2 9 66.67% 36.56 55.56% 0.265 0.8878 0.285
Ward the Shores 2 95 48.42% 35.43 54.74% 0.15 1.234 -0.515

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 173 35.72 51.45% -0.458 -0.2158 0.233
Aid From Lesser Spirits 207 36.2 47.83% 0.164 0.0863 0.022
All Things Weaken 90 33.07 45.56% -0.187 0.2055 -0.209
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% 0.283 0.3894 -0.084
Back Against the Wall 198 35.36 49.49% -0.641 -0.5829 -0.454
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 25.0 0.0% -0.263 -0.0618 -0.195
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 36.2 100.0% 0.886 1.0964
Disintegrating Ecosystem 191 32.46 54.45% -0.292 0.1314 -0.542
Downward Spiral 330 36.77 55.15% 0.228 0.4635 0.427
Erosion of Will 192 33.55 45.83% -0.214 0.0957 0.136
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.63 -0.3427
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 36.87 66.67% 0.424 -0.0694 -0.306
Memory Fades to Dust 320 36.51 53.44% 0.435 0.7712 0.188
Power Corrodes the Spirit 88 33.47 59.09% 0.315 0.5358 -0.494
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -0.97 -0.5169 -0.205
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 55.5 100.0% 0.325 0.3759 0.691
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 25.0 33.33% -0.077 0.3218 -0.059
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 36.28 71.88% -0.759 -1.4697 0.393
The Border of Life and Death 1 34.0 100.0% 0.337 0.002
Thriving Communities 120 34.04 59.17% 0.235 0.5983 0.181
Thriving Crops 3 50.33 100.0% 0.506 0.3083
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.076
Unnatural Proliferation 113 33.85 52.21% 0.478 0.6934 -0.068
Untended Land Crumbles 109 27.61 35.78% -0.005 0.2763 -0.57

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5400 44.01% 39.23 67.5% -0.152 0.387 0.181
Northeast 3924 42.28% 40.7 68.48% 0.094 0.7287 0.303
Northwest 2760 45.9% 37.25 65.76% 0.048 0.8568 0.033
Southeast 1081 48.47% 35.55 65.96% 0.282 0.9875 -0.683
Southwest 866 51.39% 33.13 67.21% -0.069 0.9208 0.402
West 5206 44.35% 39.08 67.52% -0.219 0.6849 -0.261

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.724
Not Using Events or Tokens 635 40.07% 46.58 68.35% -0.274 0.1049 -0.203
Skip Initial Invader Actions 221 14.35% 46.6 83.71% 0.413 -0.2048 0.015
Start of Game Growth 346 17.3% 43.35 83.82% -0.05 -0.3981 -0.296
Unlimited Undo 430 36.39% 38.2 70.93% -0.222 -0.2285 0.741
Using Tokens but Not Events 349 33.73% 38.96 70.49% 0.076 0.0658 -0.056

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1057 20.4 10.69%
II 1696 31.01 61.26%
III 1905 34.76 87.87%
IV 1031 38.07 98.93%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1524
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 909
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 953
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 152
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 674
Win: Sacrifice victory 66
Lose: Scenario condition 111
Win: Scenario condition 282
Lose: Blight pool ran out 805
Lose: Spirit destroyed 67

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)