Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 35 42.86% 31.71 -1.898 71.43% -0.621 -0.3375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 39 43.59% 37.15 0.598 71.79% -0.501 -0.1066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 20 90.0% 42.5 4.515 70.0% 0.012 0.8724
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 83.33% 29.1 -2.267 26.67% -1.955 -0.7049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 92.31% 38.0 3.175 38.46% -1.065 0.4692
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 25.5 -2.932 0.0% -1.104 0.9639
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 45.38 4.912 37.5% -1.456 0.6213
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 120 31.67% 35.9 -0.807 85.83% 0.317 0.3597
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 108 50.94% 36.0 -0.03 82.41% 0.474 0.4477
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 165 42.07% 46.63 5.171 84.85% 0.47 0.4704
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 114 57.89% 52.39 8.452 82.46% 0.382 0.6747
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 80 61.25% 50.16 7.282 71.25% -0.352 0.0185
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 31 54.84% 58.42 10.784 67.74% -0.486 0.3519
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 57 78.95% 49.56 6.338 40.35% -1.49 -0.2413
The Kingdom of England 0 1 122 35.25% 32.75 -2.136 73.77% -0.45 -0.1197
The Kingdom of England 1 3 156 41.67% 38.32 1.175 73.72% -0.277 0.213
The Kingdom of England 2 4 126 60.32% 37.73 0.291 53.97% -1.112 -0.1471
The Kingdom of England 3 6 83 60.24% 39.69 1.749 45.78% -1.609 -0.0287
The Kingdom of England 4 7 60 60.0% 42.18 3.114 45.0% -1.532 -0.0177
The Kingdom of England 5 9 35 74.29% 43.46 4.222 37.14% -1.764 0.3073
The Kingdom of England 6 11 76 60.0% 54.72 6.691 32.89% -2.281 -0.024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 102 39.22% 36.62 0.138 78.43% -0.202 0.3236
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 89 58.43% 33.62 -0.638 61.8% -0.762 0.1261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 94 43.62% 37.52 0.318 41.49% -1.944 0.1833
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 87 26.44% 33.69 -1.927 19.54% -3.353 -1.1687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -2.076 11.36% -3.33 -1.1788
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.129 15.22% -3.206 -1.3803
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 90 30.0% 40.69 0.342 14.44% -3.914 -1.7859
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 100 39.0% 31.12 -2.51 79.0% -0.016 0.0726
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 82 39.02% 35.72 -0.603 74.39% -0.281 -0.2699
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 127 53.97% 38.43 1.011 77.17% -0.018 0.2012
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 79 62.82% 42.38 3.635 67.09% -0.403 -0.1202
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 80 73.75% 38.52 1.535 48.75% -1.121 -0.3499
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 89.74% 32.95 -0.79 25.64% -1.842 -0.6746
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 67 81.25% 42.94 2.921 41.79% -1.406 -0.2748
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 23 39.13% 29.7 -3.234 82.61% -0.014 -0.1366
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 23 65.22% 37.35 1.19 78.26% 0.257 0.9723
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 25 52.0% 47.56 6.492 92.0% 0.894 1.3315
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 66.67% 49.13 6.193 66.67% -0.566 0.6928
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 77.78% 45.89 5.456 55.56% -0.916 0.2243
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 75.0% 41.75 3.875 25.0% -1.092 0.9688
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 39 30.77% 93.64 21.369 79.49% -0.469 1.4671

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 132 46.15% 36.17 -0.635 54.55% -0.467 0.1096
Dahan Insurrection 4 246 39.02% 61.44 10.425 63.82% 0.103 0.5033
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 55.0 7.598 100.0% 0.078 0.5068
Elemental Invocation 1 10 70.0% 32.0 -1.365 70.0% -0.217 0.1637
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 392 13.78% 43.86 3.26 72.7% -0.143 0.2225
Powers Long Forgotten 1 99 65.66% 34.62 -0.252 52.53% -0.402 0.0396
Rituals of Terror 3 126 56.35% 47.62 5.778 58.73% 0.003 0.6315
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 57 73.68% 39.11 2.088 52.63% -0.743 -0.0929
Second Wave 0 160 53.75% 34.17 -1.764 61.88% -1.064 -0.6473
Ward the Shores 2 109 54.13% 37.79 0.721 52.29% -1.054 -0.0176

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 100 34.07 -2.07 53.0% -1.35 0.7197
Aid From Lesser Spirits 126 35.06 -1.999 48.41% -1.522 0.396
All Things Weaken 45 30.73 -3.822 44.44% -1.633 0.522
Back Against the Wall 126 35.24 -1.711 46.83% -1.343 0.7528
Disintegrating Ecosystem 138 31.33 -3.465 52.9% -1.411 0.8132
Downward Spiral 224 37.17 -1.816 54.46% -1.126 0.8909
Erosion of Will 122 32.56 -3.075 43.44% -1.741 0.469
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 37.27 -0.111 90.91% 0.207 0.9119
Memory Fades to Dust 213 36.95 -1.998 49.3% -1.292 0.9228
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 31.58 -3.0 55.26% -1.158 0.8618
Promising Farmlands 147 32.44 -2.747 53.06% -1.237 0.9753
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 35.8 -0.059 75.0% -0.236 0.1996
Thriving Communities 57 34.95 -2.054 66.67% -0.873 1.2247
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -4.063 42.67% -1.65 0.5686
Unnatural Proliferation 51 33.8 -2.766 43.14% -1.767 0.3106
Untended Land Crumbles 50 30.48 -3.682 46.0% -1.455 0.6432

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 2710 43.49% 38.94 0.994 69.45% 0.157 -0.794
Northeast 2584 41.88% 39.18 1.182 70.01% 0.302 -0.5884
Northwest 1938 44.44% 37.14 -0.725 65.84% -0.214 -1.1787
Southeast 454 48.9% 35.15 -0.913 71.81% -0.245 -1.2464
Southwest 399 51.26% 33.96 -0.829 69.67% 0.296 -0.3121
West 2508 44.33% 38.14 -0.216 66.15% -0.244 -0.9301

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 30.58 -5.728 54.17% -1.725 0.3195
Not Using Events or Tokens 391 46.26% 46.68 3.573 63.68% -0.261 -0.0419
Skip Initial Invader Actions 173 14.79% 46.37 2.898 83.24% 0.34 -0.3645
Start of Game Growth 245 16.18% 45.0 2.596 84.49% 0.829 0.375
Unlimited Undo 240 39.39% 42.59 1.493 70.0% 0.136 -0.2764
Using Tokens but Not Events 173 43.37% 35.94 -0.924 66.47% -0.28 -0.3276

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 635 22.34 10.39%
II 1106 30.75 63.83%
III 1232 34.26 88.23%
IV 558 37.47 98.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 29
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 663
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 421
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 412
Lose: Invader deck ran out 24
Lose: Adversary condition 451
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 92
Win: Scenario condition 214
Lose: Blight pool ran out 504
Lose: Spirit destroyed 50

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)