Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 46 45.65% 30.89 -2.345 67.39% -0.84 -0.5568
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 36.43 0.569 73.47% -0.417 -0.006
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 25 84.0% 40.84 3.595 68.0% -0.19 0.6867
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 84.38% 29.38 -2.003 28.13% -1.973 -0.7275
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 93.33% 36.4 1.9 33.33% -1.379 0.123
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 25.5 -2.691 0.0% -1.072 0.8818
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 66.67% 47.78 6.167 44.44% -1.312 0.7313
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 139 34.06% 35.7 -0.837 85.61% 0.276 0.3184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 122 51.67% 35.91 -0.066 81.97% 0.358 0.3398
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 187 45.16% 46.43 5.085 85.03% 0.394 0.4074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 123 58.54% 52.15 8.279 82.93% 0.339 0.6272
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 85 63.53% 50.25 7.303 71.76% -0.346 0.0211
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 37 59.46% 58.27 10.71 67.57% -0.541 0.2854
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64 79.69% 50.0 6.382 42.19% -1.471 -0.2326
The Kingdom of England 0 1 135 38.52% 32.47 -2.208 74.07% -0.441 -0.1097
The Kingdom of England 1 3 172 39.53% 38.15 1.071 73.84% -0.364 0.1499
The Kingdom of England 2 4 147 63.27% 36.89 -0.051 51.7% -1.249 -0.2813
The Kingdom of England 3 6 95 63.16% 38.24 1.206 43.16% -1.774 -0.1951
The Kingdom of England 4 7 63 61.9% 41.76 2.827 44.44% -1.637 -0.1388
The Kingdom of England 5 9 38 76.32% 42.58 3.918 34.21% -1.931 0.1418
The Kingdom of England 6 11 87 56.98% 56.14 7.338 36.78% -2.272 -0.0238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 112 41.07% 35.85 -0.252 75.89% -0.401 0.1133
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 95 61.05% 33.37 -0.761 61.05% -0.848 0.0514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 102 42.16% 38.45 0.622 43.14% -1.933 0.2102
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 94 26.6% 32.86 -2.202 18.09% -3.47 -1.2737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -2.203 11.36% -3.385 -1.2263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.096 15.22% -3.242 -1.4245
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 100 34.0% 40.82 0.286 15.0% -3.909 -1.8123
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 115 39.13% 30.87 -2.623 79.13% -0.062 0.023
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 95 42.11% 35.57 -0.613 73.68% -0.364 -0.3304
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 150 56.38% 37.81 0.903 77.33% -0.036 0.1988
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 83 63.41% 43.18 3.909 68.67% -0.354 -0.0673
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 83 74.7% 38.98 1.707 50.6% -1.09 -0.3069
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 89.74% 32.95 -0.935 25.64% -1.916 -0.7498
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 71 82.35% 42.86 2.639 40.85% -1.467 -0.343
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 32 40.63% 29.38 -3.166 78.13% -0.268 -0.3697
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 30 60.0% 38.53 1.796 83.33% 0.434 1.2133
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 42 47.62% 48.67 6.64 92.86% 1.034 1.4533
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 58.82% 50.76 6.946 70.59% -0.544 0.7101
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 72.73% 45.27 5.615 54.55% -0.872 0.2448
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 75.0% 41.75 4.18 25.0% -1.091 0.9075
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 64 37.5% 85.33 18.027 67.19% -1.218 0.66

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 143 47.52% 35.63 -0.877 55.24% -0.488 0.0808
Dahan Insurrection 4 285 38.6% 63.43 11.042 65.61% 0.108 0.5062
Despicable Theft 2 6 83.33% 55.67 7.632 66.67% 0.74 1.0098
Elemental Invocation 1 39 76.92% 32.56 -3.719 41.03% -1.108 -0.6435
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 418 14.35% 43.9 3.253 72.97% -0.149 0.2172
Powers Long Forgotten 1 106 66.04% 35.36 0.132 55.66% -0.319 0.126
Rituals of Terror 3 131 56.49% 46.98 5.519 58.02% -0.095 0.5501
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 73.33% 39.72 2.463 55.0% -0.609 0.0367
Second Wave 0 178 52.25% 34.22 -1.672 63.48% -1.046 -0.6168
Ward the Shores 2 115 53.04% 37.93 0.841 53.91% -1.005 0.0294

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 121 33.74 -2.298 51.24% -1.514 0.559
Aid From Lesser Spirits 149 35.32 -1.972 48.99% -1.521 0.3969
All Things Weaken 53 31.75 -3.413 47.17% -1.596 0.5745
Back Against the Wall 142 35.72 -1.52 48.59% -1.321 0.7703
Disintegrating Ecosystem 145 31.56 -3.357 53.79% -1.377 0.8478
Downward Spiral 247 37.21 -1.797 55.47% -1.101 0.9218
Erosion of Will 145 33.63 -2.464 46.9% -1.517 0.6916
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19 34.37 -1.105 68.42% -0.477 0.2093
Memory Fades to Dust 242 36.53 -2.066 50.83% -1.283 0.9361
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53 32.6 -2.925 60.38% -1.172 0.8516
Promising Farmlands 161 32.1 -2.901 53.42% -1.267 0.947
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 36.91 -0.249 72.73% -0.378 0.032
Thriving Communities 69 34.78 -1.883 65.22% -0.953 1.1422
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -4.124 42.67% -1.633 0.5935
Unnatural Proliferation 66 33.92 -2.352 45.45% -1.642 0.4445
Untended Land Crumbles 64 29.42 -4.657 42.19% -1.675 0.4311

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 3060 44.18% 39.08 1.07 69.77% 0.173 -0.4768
Northeast 2855 42.67% 39.38 1.22 70.3% 0.306 -0.2933
Northwest 2120 45.58% 37.1 -0.721 66.32% -0.179 -0.849
Southeast 575 50.35% 35.07 -1.077 70.09% -0.283 -0.9892
Southwest 519 52.04% 33.67 -1.007 68.79% 0.256 -0.0174
West 2817 44.79% 38.28 -0.054 66.81% -0.221 -0.6198

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 30.07 -5.484 58.62% -1.711 0.3449
Not Using Events or Tokens 427 48.04% 46.55 3.503 64.64% -0.179 0.0366
Skip Initial Invader Actions 192 13.83% 45.54 2.732 84.38% 0.16 -0.5267
Start of Game Growth 277 15.38% 44.08 2.357 85.92% 0.952 0.4821
Unlimited Undo 277 40.91% 41.08 1.101 71.84% 0.205 -0.2147
Using Tokens but Not Events 201 40.84% 35.33 -1.014 67.66% -0.221 -0.2736

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 703 22.35 10.1%
II 1244 30.84 63.91%
III 1373 34.35 88.13%
IV 662 37.52 98.79%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 772
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 489
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 515
Lose: Invader deck ran out 28
Lose: Adversary condition 495
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 99
Win: Scenario condition 249
Lose: Blight pool ran out 577
Lose: Spirit destroyed 53

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)