Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 40.0% 35.5 50.0% -0.41 -0.3017
Blitz 0 123 56.2% 32.64 47.15% -1.415 -1.148 0.054
Dahan Insurrection 4 247 38.46% 65.15 62.75% -0.831 -0.4987 0.542
Despicable Theft 2 12 83.33% 51.42 75.0% 0.05 0.3011 0.18
Elemental Invocation 1 50 68.0% 33.2 48.0% -0.387 0.2609 -1.384
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 335 18.56% 46.17 77.31% 1.145 1.3106 2.256
Powers Long Forgotten 1 88 68.18% 34.67 53.41% -0.799
Rituals of Terror 3 182 51.1% 68.54 63.74% -0.075 -0.1842 0.677
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 75.0% 41.85 56.25% 0.163
Second Wave 0 251 43.03% 30.22 75.7% -0.866 -0.3954 0.404
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 38.33 33.33% -0.637 -0.1013 -0.24
Ward the Shores 2 86 50.0% 37.29 56.98% -0.616 0.5715 -0.512

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 156 36.01 51.28% 0.282 2.1139 0.214
Aid From Lesser Spirits 184 36.13 47.83% -0.732 0.922 -0.366
All Things Weaken 85 32.15 44.71% -0.8 1.1765 -0.619
Back Against the Wall 184 35.56 48.91% 0.076 1.9348 -0.571
Disintegrating Ecosystem 174 32.18 55.75% -0.706 1.2685 -0.311
Downward Spiral 305 37.09 55.74% -0.511 1.391 0.406
Erosion of Will 185 33.37 45.95% -0.883 1.1611 -0.022
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 33 37.3 60.61% -0.639 -0.0668 -0.395
Memory Fades to Dust 304 36.72 53.62% -0.903 1.0767 0.278
Power Corrodes the Spirit 79 33.78 58.23% 0.316 2.2077 -0.79
Promising Farmlands 188 32.41 51.06% -0.194 1.8445 -0.199
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 29 37.24 75.86% 0.603 1.044 0.367
Thriving Communities 103 34.28 60.19% -0.697 1.2673 0.017
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.026
Unnatural Proliferation 94 33.1 50.0% -0.862 1.0441 -0.01
Untended Land Crumbles 97 28.21 35.05% -1.137 0.8978 -0.416

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 4808 45.22% 39.28 68.66% -0.162 0.4599 0.357
Northeast 3545 43.34% 40.37 69.62% -0.034 0.6469 0.264
Northwest 2522 46.35% 37.75 66.65% 0.08 1.1469 -0.018
Southeast 881 51.76% 35.9 66.52% -0.383 0.345 -0.874
Southwest 700 52.73% 34.02 70.0% 0.829 1.8 0.289
West 4640 45.22% 39.18 68.75% -0.309 0.6949 -0.045

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.758
Not Using Events or Tokens 580 42.22% 47.68 68.97% 0.537 0.7511 -0.386
Skip Initial Invader Actions 202 14.21% 45.08 83.66% -0.751 -0.844 -0.513
Start of Game Growth 315 16.77% 42.7 84.76% -0.571 -1.279 -0.513
Unlimited Undo 368 40.51% 40.07 73.91% 0.552 -0.1477 0.716
Using Tokens but Not Events 297 36.36% 36.64 73.06% -0.534 -0.5798 -0.083

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 856 22.6 11.68%
II 1573 31.02 62.11%
III 1757 34.59 87.71%
IV 876 37.83 98.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 99
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1396
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 855
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 834
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 627
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 107
Win: Scenario condition 269
Lose: Blight pool ran out 749
Lose: Spirit destroyed 62

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)