Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 23 21.74% 19.39 30.43% -0.316 -0.5097 -0.211
Blitz 0 169 46.71% 29.11 43.2% -0.434 -0.2652 -0.213
Dahan Insurrection 4 294 35.37% 60.53 59.18% -0.318 -0.5447 0.541
Despicable Theft 2 32 56.25% 31.09 40.63% -0.491 0.0805 0.236
Elemental Invocation 1 78 64.1% 30.78 37.18% -0.932 -0.1296 -1.573
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 403 16.67% 45.67 75.93% 0.207 -0.5633 2.306
Powers Long Forgotten 1 107 58.88% 30.58 46.73% -0.042 0.8307 -0.767
Rituals of Terror 3 321 34.27% 87.41 66.98% 0.642 0.6653 1.042
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 57 63.16% 36.07 49.12% -0.409 0.6952 -0.175
Second Wave 0 312 41.35% 30.01 74.68% -0.044 0.0829 0.852
Varied Terrains 2 15 73.33% 31.13 40.0% -0.156 0.5984 0.267
Ward the Shores 2 102 48.04% 34.93 53.92% 0.59 1.5671 -0.619

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 184 35.96 52.72% 1.196 1.3396 0.303
Aid From Lesser Spirits 220 35.25 47.27% 0.377 0.2435 0.109
All Things Weaken 101 32.83 45.54% -0.284 -0.0032 -0.064
Attenuated Essence 9 20.33 44.44% -0.354 -0.2832 -0.076
Back Against the Wall 207 34.75 47.83% -0.68 -0.664 -0.426
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 42.9 60.0% 0.793 0.9303 -0.089
Burn Brightest Before the End 17 29.06 47.06% 0.258 0.3896 -0.322
Disintegrating Ecosystem 208 31.7 53.37% -0.278 0.0513 -0.569
Downward Spiral 343 36.61 55.69% 1.104 1.2408 0.518
Erosion of Will 200 33.04 45.0% 0.108 0.3286 0.191
Intensifying Exploitation 10 20.5 10.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 40 37.23 67.5% 0.302 -0.2997 -0.217
Memory Fades to Dust 342 36.56 53.51% 1.16 1.4116 0.285
Power Corrodes the Spirit 96 33.65 56.25% -0.15 0.0052 -0.437
Promising Farmlands 207 31.78 49.28% -0.385 -0.0763 -0.134
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 49.5 75.0% 0.266 0.3955 1.106
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 38.3 50.0% -0.318 0.0702 0.094
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 36.28 71.88% 0.306
The Border of Life and Death 4 28.0 100.0% 0.635 0.1577
Thriving Communities 129 34.41 61.24% 1.542 1.8319 0.328
Thriving Crops 6 70.67 100.0% 0.314 0.1873 0.718
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.173
Unnatural Proliferation 133 33.7 47.37% -0.72 -0.5614 0.021
Untended Land Crumbles 115 28.15 37.39% 0.54 0.7857 -0.283

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5994 42.81% 38.65 65.02% 0.378 1.341 0.185
Northeast 4322 40.87% 40.55 66.43% 0.258 1.1947 0.383
Northwest 3023 44.84% 36.16 63.45% -0.343 0.697 -0.036
Southeast 1247 46.99% 33.63 61.51% -0.652 0.3689 -0.623
Southwest 1031 50.05% 30.97 62.17% -0.043 1.3425 0.287
West 5795 43.17% 38.45 64.95% 0.385 1.4506 -0.223

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 38 0.0% 28.24 60.53% -0.318 0.2892 -0.669
Not Using Events or Tokens 681 38.51% 44.27 65.49% 0.121 0.6424 -0.336
Skip Initial Invader Actions 231 13.78% 46.53 82.68% 0.002 -0.6867 -0.106
Start of Game Growth 373 17.44% 43.34 82.04% 0.98 0.63 -0.066
Unlimited Undo 463 35.59% 37.29 69.76% 0.199 0.1749 0.763
Using Tokens but Not Events 394 32.89% 39.92 70.3% 0.763 0.8303 -0.037

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1354 17.09 8.42%
II 1779 30.63 60.43%
III 2054 34.73 87.59%
IV 1138 38.26 99.03%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 113
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1643
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 938
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1019
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 404
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 732
Win: Sacrifice victory 108
Lose: Scenario condition 111
Win: Scenario condition 294
Lose: Blight pool ran out 859
Lose: Spirit destroyed 70

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-12 04:23:40 (Pacific Time)