Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 26.67% 26.93 40.0% -0.993 -1.1814 -0.256
Blitz 0 140 52.9% 32.51 47.14% 0.342 0.526 -0.125
Dahan Insurrection 4 263 37.26% 64.22 62.36% 0.193 -0.1211 0.539
Despicable Theft 2 21 71.43% 36.76 52.38% -0.745 -0.0002 0.269
Elemental Invocation 1 58 67.24% 32.78 46.55% -0.537 0.2352 -1.321
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 377 17.02% 46.46 76.66% -0.009 -0.6298 2.165
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 64.95% 32.75 49.48% -1.181 -0.6389 -0.85
Rituals of Terror 3 243 41.15% 80.04 66.67% 0.805 0.9118 0.956
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 53 67.92% 38.79 52.83% -0.609 0.3619 -0.179
Second Wave 0 293 41.64% 30.21 75.77% 0.947 1.0152 0.584
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 38.29 57.14% 0.269 0.8426 0.215
Ward the Shores 2 95 48.42% 35.43 54.74% -0.086 1.0475 -0.546

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 172 35.87 51.74% -0.186 0.0126 0.19
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.51 0.4432 -0.015
All Things Weaken 90 33.07 45.56% -0.18 0.1878 -0.304
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% 0.21 0.2804 -0.084
Back Against the Wall 196 35.46 49.49% -0.169 -0.0997 -0.513
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 25.0 0.0% -0.168 0.0893 -0.196
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.593 0.7681
Disintegrating Ecosystem 190 32.29 54.74% -0.091 0.3481 -0.571
Downward Spiral 329 36.72 55.32% 0.223 0.4692 0.417
Erosion of Will 192 33.55 45.83% -0.215 0.1023 0.088
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.684 -0.4144
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 36.92 65.79% 0.621 0.1111 -0.323
Memory Fades to Dust 316 36.43 52.85% -0.423 -0.059 0.188
Power Corrodes the Spirit 88 33.47 59.09% 0.488 0.7239 -0.532
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -1.138 -0.678 -0.245
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 55.5 100.0% 0.744 0.7992 0.728
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 25.0 33.33% -0.215 0.1924 -0.062
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 36.28 71.88% -0.789 -1.4314 0.341
The Border of Life and Death 1 34.0 100.0% 0.274 -0.1132
Thriving Communities 120 34.04 59.17% 0.13 0.4873 0.098
Thriving Crops 3 50.33 100.0% 0.643 0.5284
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.045
Unnatural Proliferation 112 33.71 51.79% 0.034 0.2068 -0.115
Untended Land Crumbles 109 27.61 35.78% 0.177 0.4255 -0.619

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5353 44.06% 39.32 67.72% -0.1 0.5075 0.236
Northeast 3892 42.27% 40.78 68.65% -0.192 0.5572 0.263
Northwest 2742 45.76% 37.33 65.86% -0.025 0.7911 0.081
Southeast 1069 48.92% 35.7 66.23% 0.619 1.3472 -0.743
Southwest 855 51.82% 33.3 67.49% -0.27 0.7948 0.393
West 5165 44.37% 39.16 67.71% -0.048 0.9009 -0.255

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.724
Not Using Events or Tokens 634 40.13% 46.65 68.45% -0.003 0.334 -0.245
Skip Initial Invader Actions 221 14.35% 46.6 83.71% 0.585 -0.0479 -0.133
Start of Game Growth 340 16.72% 43.45 84.12% 0.085 -0.2052 -0.133
Unlimited Undo 425 36.83% 38.32 71.06% -0.363 -0.3604 0.735
Using Tokens but Not Events 346 34.03% 39.05 70.81% 0.681 0.6065 -0.035

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1037 20.63 10.9%
II 1687 31.02 61.41%
III 1894 34.75 87.86%
IV 1024 38.05 98.93%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1515
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 906
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 948
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 133
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 672
Win: Sacrifice victory 64
Lose: Scenario condition 111
Win: Scenario condition 281
Lose: Blight pool ran out 799
Lose: Spirit destroyed 67

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)