Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 60 46.67% 30.57 -18.431 65.0% -1.107 -0.6366
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 66 45.45% 38.05 5.79 78.79% 0.537 0.827
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 74.42% 40.93 67.44%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 78.43% 34.37 2.849 33.33% -0.278 1.0849
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 85.71% 40.62 38.1%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 83.33% 39.5 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 33 36.36% 62.58 5.87 27.27% -0.184 2.0863
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 176 37.71% 35.95 0.031 82.95% 0.108 0.0044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 157 52.26% 35.85 -4.909 80.25% -0.117 -0.4318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 243 48.76% 45.88 2.794 80.25% 0.37 0.5258
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 161 56.52% 52.72 -2.584 83.23% -0.527 -0.1832
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 95 64.21% 51.03 14.268 72.63% 0.606 0.9762
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 46.67% 63.67 22.372 76.67% 0.13 1.1302
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 89 71.91% 66.94 14.467 47.19% -0.257 1.2219
The Kingdom of England 0 1 184 36.96% 33.61 0.93 72.28% 0.281 0.7328
The Kingdom of England 1 3 217 39.81% 39.7 5.609 75.12% 0.377 0.9364
The Kingdom of England 2 4 197 60.91% 37.89 -1.741 53.81% -0.105 1.0186
The Kingdom of England 3 6 154 67.53% 35.21 -4.371 30.52% -0.337 1.257
The Kingdom of England 4 7 80 61.25% 43.23 4.482 45.0% -0.687 0.7187
The Kingdom of England 5 9 41 73.17% 44.59 -8.084 34.15% -0.879 1.2695
The Kingdom of England 6 11 131 48.46% 69.95 15.476 41.98% -0.346 2.1081
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 135 45.19% 36.11 -3.249 74.07% -0.083 0.6654
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 121 63.64% 33.68 -5.897 61.16% -0.644 0.5593
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 126 41.27% 36.88 0.79 39.68% -0.201 1.8443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 112 30.36% 33.81 -7.177 20.54% -0.847 1.3184
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 59 40.68% 34.42 15.25%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 15.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 134 35.07% 54.36 20.207 23.88% -0.03 2.1953
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 7 28.57% 27.86 -10.476 57.14% -0.289 -0.5354
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 83.33% 25.33 -11.746 33.33% -1.054 -0.1269
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 7 28.57% 39.0 -5.524 85.71% -0.361 0.7169
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 25.0% 54.63 -9.494 75.0% -0.574 0.2486
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 33.33% 60.5 83.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 50.0% 58.83 4.642 66.67% -0.245 1.0856
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15 53.33% 97.73 16.234 53.33% -0.141 1.5255
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 159 38.99% 32.21 -4.113 78.62% 0.713 0.7513
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 122 44.26% 36.54 0.235 76.23% 0.544 0.6366
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 210 49.76% 38.82 4.184 77.62% 0.701 0.9796
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 116 61.74% 43.69 6.902 71.55% 0.759 1.1464
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 75.0% 39.93 12.708 52.17% 0.041 1.0851
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 45 86.67% 34.2 28.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 90 80.46% 45.06 -0.867 43.33% -0.909 0.2081
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 51 41.18% 30.67 -4.505 80.39% 0.371 -0.0609
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 47 68.09% 36.57 72.34%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 57 49.12% 46.37 -0.173 87.72% -0.271 0.2042
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 68.97% 52.79 7.001 75.86% 0.221 1.6295
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 21 71.43% 39.57 38.1%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 83.33% 49.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 130 35.38% 107.84 26.007 70.0% 0.371 2.3692

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 40.0% 35.5 50.0%
Blitz 0 133 54.96% 33.25 47.37% 0.37 0.878 -0.138
Dahan Insurrection 4 255 38.04% 65.28 62.75% 0.317 0.4012 0.535
Despicable Theft 2 13 84.62% 51.77 76.92% 0.291
Elemental Invocation 1 53 67.92% 34.45 47.17% -0.383 0.2348 -1.309
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 356 17.46% 47.17 78.37% 0.459 0.6327 2.318
Powers Long Forgotten 1 89 67.42% 34.72 53.93% 0.204 0.7381 -0.77
Rituals of Terror 3 212 46.23% 76.26 66.98% 0.33 0.1177 0.883
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 75.0% 41.85 56.25% 0.23
Second Wave 0 270 42.22% 30.23 75.93% 1.085 1.6048 0.377
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 38.33 33.33% -0.366
Ward the Shores 2 87 49.43% 37.41 57.47% -0.485

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 164 36.01 51.83% -0.549 1.411 0.075
Aid From Lesser Spirits 194 35.86 47.42% -0.417 1.3127 -0.408
All Things Weaken 88 32.66 45.45% -0.678 1.3894 -0.362
Back Against the Wall 190 35.82 50.0% -0.033 1.8657 -0.565
Disintegrating Ecosystem 178 32.62 55.62% -0.169 1.9267 -0.372
Downward Spiral 315 36.99 55.87% -0.619 1.2542 0.369
Erosion of Will 189 33.65 46.03% -0.342 1.7687 -0.104
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 36 36.83 63.89% 0.424 0.9823 -0.41
Memory Fades to Dust 311 36.71 53.38% -0.22 1.8459 0.233
Power Corrodes the Spirit 84 33.37 58.33% -0.094 1.814 -0.706
Promising Farmlands 193 32.55 51.3% -0.422 1.6025 -0.351
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 37.8 76.67% 0.221 0.6387 0.401
Thriving Communities 110 34.68 59.09% -0.706 1.3534 -0.066
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% -0.025
Unnatural Proliferation 104 33.16 50.0% -0.773 1.1648 -0.227
Untended Land Crumbles 103 28.04 34.95% -0.854 1.1605 -0.551

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5027 44.88% 39.84 68.97% -0.219 0.3808 0.328
Northeast 3682 43.05% 41.1 69.93% 0.036 0.7159 0.32
Northwest 2606 46.31% 38.12 67.04% 0.335 0.8105 0.065
Southeast 962 50.31% 36.5 67.36% 0.089 0.8268 -0.695
Southwest 767 52.16% 34.48 69.88% -0.037 0.9125 0.114
West 4845 45.06% 39.74 69.04% -0.191 0.5401 -0.16

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.74
Not Using Events or Tokens 604 41.51% 47.8 69.87% 0.399 0.6345 -0.368
Skip Initial Invader Actions 211 14.08% 46.05 83.89% 0.593 -0.5803 0.016
Start of Game Growth 327 16.77% 43.28 84.71% 0.131 -0.3011 0.016
Unlimited Undo 384 39.84% 40.99 74.48% -0.039 -0.5181 0.801
Using Tokens but Not Events 323 36.22% 38.5 72.14% -0.5 -0.3492 -0.246

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 900 22.68 12.33%
II 1621 31.11 62.25%
III 1834 34.69 87.84%
IV 939 37.95 98.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 110
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1464
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 883
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 882
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 655
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 275
Lose: Blight pool ran out 774
Lose: Spirit destroyed 64

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-31 03:36:05 (Pacific Time)