Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 42 40.48% 31.4 -2.345 71.43% -0.708 -0.4302
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 48 43.75% 36.52 0.509 72.92% -0.453 -0.0587
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 21 85.71% 42.62 4.547 71.43% 0.016 0.8938
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 83.33% 29.1 -2.254 26.67% -1.97 -0.7182
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 92.86% 37.5 2.413 35.71% -1.287 0.2346
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 25.5 -2.774 0.0% -1.101 0.8763
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 66.67% 47.78 6.113 44.44% -1.302 0.7476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 131 33.08% 35.51 -0.952 85.5% 0.268 0.3088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 116 50.0% 35.98 -0.104 82.76% 0.409 0.3804
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 184 45.36% 46.22 5.009 84.78% 0.407 0.4119
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 121 57.85% 52.18 8.296 82.64% 0.342 0.6304
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 80 61.25% 50.16 7.197 71.25% -0.416 -0.0487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 36 58.33% 58.06 10.518 66.67% -0.552 0.2776
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 63 79.37% 49.68 6.322 41.27% -1.496 -0.2543
The Kingdom of England 0 1 132 39.39% 32.21 -2.317 73.48% -0.449 -0.1162
The Kingdom of England 1 3 167 40.12% 38.13 1.028 73.65% -0.363 0.141
The Kingdom of England 2 4 142 61.97% 36.85 -0.116 52.11% -1.243 -0.2751
The Kingdom of England 3 6 87 62.07% 39.45 1.753 45.98% -1.624 -0.0462
The Kingdom of England 4 7 61 60.66% 42.33 3.118 45.9% -1.552 -0.0541
The Kingdom of England 5 9 36 75.0% 42.92 3.92 36.11% -1.863 0.2037
The Kingdom of England 6 11 82 58.02% 55.91 7.074 35.37% -2.281 -0.026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 110 40.91% 35.75 -0.302 75.45% -0.377 0.1376
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 94 60.64% 33.61 -0.687 61.7% -0.818 0.0778
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 98 41.84% 37.89 0.334 41.84% -1.991 0.1461
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 89 26.97% 33.46 -2.075 19.1% -3.402 -1.2169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -2.189 11.36% -3.365 -1.2188
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.064 15.22% -3.245 -1.4254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 94 32.98% 41.55 0.524 15.96% -3.812 -1.7048
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 111 39.64% 30.95 -2.574 79.28% -0.038 0.047
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 89 40.45% 35.96 -0.535 75.28% -0.279 -0.2578
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 148 55.78% 37.67 0.8 77.03% -0.042 0.1898
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 80 63.29% 42.52 3.693 67.5% -0.398 -0.1116
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 82 74.39% 38.84 1.674 50.0% -1.114 -0.3365
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 89.74% 32.95 -0.916 25.64% -1.9 -0.7426
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 67 81.25% 42.94 2.842 41.79% -1.45 -0.3188
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 30 36.67% 28.93 -3.47 80.0% -0.237 -0.343
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 28 64.29% 37.82 1.563 82.14% 0.497 1.2396
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 35 45.71% 48.4 6.685 91.43% 0.938 1.3701
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 66.67% 49.13 6.081 66.67% -0.595 0.6542
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 80.0% 43.4 4.728 50.0% -0.961 0.1658
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 75.0% 41.75 4.218 25.0% -1.05 0.9683
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 64 37.5% 85.33 18.002 67.19% -1.096 0.8088

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 141 46.76% 35.9 -0.799 56.03% -0.482 0.0913
Dahan Insurrection 4 274 37.23% 63.62 11.04 65.33% 0.066 0.4662
Despicable Theft 2 6 83.33% 55.67 7.51 66.67% 0.731 1.0137
Elemental Invocation 1 33 72.73% 33.12 -4.018 42.42% -1.048 -0.6088
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 411 14.36% 43.83 3.219 72.75% -0.178 0.1875
Powers Long Forgotten 1 105 65.71% 35.18 0.032 55.24% -0.354 0.0873
Rituals of Terror 3 130 56.92% 46.97 5.507 57.69% -0.119 0.5251
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 59 72.88% 39.36 2.293 54.24% -0.667 -0.0255
Second Wave 0 175 52.57% 34.11 -1.758 62.86% -1.101 -0.6727
Ward the Shores 2 112 52.68% 38.07 0.844 53.57% -1.04 -0.0024

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 108 33.23 -2.601 50.0% -1.528 0.5458
Aid From Lesser Spirits 143 35.36 -1.966 49.65% -1.498 0.4212
All Things Weaken 51 30.9 -3.882 45.1% -1.703 0.4553
Back Against the Wall 137 35.4 -1.668 47.45% -1.353 0.7413
Disintegrating Ecosystem 143 31.45 -3.441 53.15% -1.404 0.82
Downward Spiral 237 36.94 -1.931 54.85% -1.114 0.9068
Erosion of Will 135 33.76 -2.524 46.67% -1.564 0.645
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 35.07 -0.993 80.0% -0.356 0.3362
Memory Fades to Dust 234 36.61 -1.997 51.28% -1.263 0.9552
Power Corrodes the Spirit 47 31.79 -3.227 57.45% -1.247 0.7735
Promising Farmlands 159 32.23 -2.846 54.09% -1.233 0.9811
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 36.91 -0.284 72.73% -0.387 0.0244
Thriving Communities 63 35.59 -1.709 68.25% -0.824 1.2691
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -4.142 42.67% -1.65 0.5757
Unnatural Proliferation 59 33.68 -2.636 42.37% -1.701 0.388
Untended Land Crumbles 62 29.66 -4.531 43.55% -1.614 0.492

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 2950 44.0% 39.09 1.022 69.76% 0.155 -0.8261
Northeast 2758 42.39% 39.4 1.225 70.3% 0.298 -0.6333
Northwest 2056 45.15% 37.08 -0.746 66.39% -0.192 -1.191
Southeast 538 48.88% 35.19 -1.079 70.63% -0.29 -1.3154
Southwest 475 50.84% 34.08 -0.823 70.11% 0.32 -0.3001
West 2707 44.49% 38.34 -0.107 66.83% -0.24 -0.9651

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 26 0.0% 30.96 -5.412 57.69% -1.647 0.4077
Not Using Events or Tokens 412 47.33% 46.4 3.42 64.32% -0.244 -0.0264
Skip Initial Invader Actions 188 14.13% 45.77 2.749 84.04% 0.168 -0.5258
Start of Game Growth 273 15.61% 44.22 2.35 85.71% 0.932 0.4695
Unlimited Undo 264 40.94% 41.74 1.27 71.59% 0.195 -0.2253
Using Tokens but Not Events 187 41.11% 36.04 -0.851 68.98% -0.229 -0.2815

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 676 22.34 10.36%
II 1202 30.81 64.14%
III 1322 34.31 88.28%
IV 628 37.5 98.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 33
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 735
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 469
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 481
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26
Lose: Adversary condition 474
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 98
Win: Scenario condition 239
Lose: Blight pool ran out 551
Lose: Spirit destroyed 51

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)