Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 20.0% 19.97 33.33% 0.181 0.1967 -0.183
Blitz 0 197 43.08% 27.01 41.62% -0.269 0.0189 -0.269
Dahan Insurrection 4 316 34.18% 58.41 57.59% -0.116 -0.2927 0.618
Despicable Theft 2 35 54.29% 28.43 37.14% -0.562 0.2987 0.073
Elemental Invocation 1 87 62.07% 29.37 35.63% -1.034 -0.1005 -1.638
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 475 15.82% 44.2 72.84% 0.267 -0.38 2.081
Powers Long Forgotten 1 114 55.26% 29.86 46.49% -0.398 0.5473 -0.736
Rituals of Terror 3 396 29.11% 87.65 65.91% 0.744 0.8205 1.172
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 64 57.81% 32.83 45.31% -0.747 0.3684 -0.56
Second Wave 0 332 43.07% 29.27 72.59% -0.212 -0.1812 0.947
Varied Terrains 2 19 63.16% 26.0 31.58% -0.788 -0.0135 0.052
Ward the Shores 2 108 47.22% 34.44 52.78% -0.69 0.355 -0.667

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 190 35.13 51.05% -1.111 -0.9356 0.344
Aid From Lesser Spirits 232 34.84 46.12% -0.27 -0.324 0.098
All Things Weaken 110 31.69 43.64% -0.408 -0.1145 -0.275
Attenuated Essence 15 23.33 46.67% 0.497 0.5808 -0.085
Back Against the Wall 226 35.27 49.56% 0.858 0.9056 -0.421
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 37.33 50.0% -0.13 0.073 -0.29
Burn Brightest Before the End 27 25.33 48.15% -0.927 -0.7392 -0.291
Disintegrating Ecosystem 216 31.48 52.78% 0.17 0.5789 -0.537
Downward Spiral 372 36.15 55.91% 0.528 0.6552 0.668
Erosion of Will 209 33.35 46.41% 0.977 1.2602 0.11
Intensifying Exploitation 13 24.38 30.77% 0.279 0.5271
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 37.36 66.67% 0.238 -0.2776 -0.359
Memory Fades to Dust 376 35.65 53.72% 0.801 1.0383 0.467
Power Corrodes the Spirit 119 32.29 55.46% 0.532 0.7495 -0.45
Promising Farmlands 217 31.51 48.85% -0.009 0.2856 -0.191
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 32.91 63.64% -0.667 -0.466 1.142
Slow Dissolution of Will 16 45.56 62.5% 0.138 0.5218 0.3
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 36 35.83 75.0% 0.388
The Border of Life and Death 7 23.71 100.0%
Thriving Communities 136 33.57 61.03% -0.043 0.2961 0.272
Thriving Crops 8 58.88 100.0% 0.436 0.3938 0.669
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.221
Unnatural Proliferation 140 32.79 47.86% -0.006 0.1343 0.063
Untended Land Crumbles 127 28.23 37.8% -0.293 0.1558 -0.455

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 6746 41.17% 37.61 63.37% -0.117 0.7293 0.214
Northeast 4837 39.21% 39.69 64.73% 0.184 0.9545 0.367
Northwest 3340 43.44% 35.0 62.07% -0.028 0.7798 -0.092
Southeast 1459 44.68% 32.64 60.66% -0.015 0.8541 -0.511
Southwest 1222 48.36% 29.8 60.39% 0.038 1.3197 0.103
West 6533 41.66% 37.39 63.23% -0.062 0.9335 -0.105

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 43 0.0% 30.93 60.47% 0.566 1.3618 -0.614
Not Using Events or Tokens 847 33.86% 39.19 58.91% -1.251 -0.863 -0.593
Skip Initial Invader Actions 255 14.52% 48.11 82.75% 0.71 0.0952 0.216
Start of Game Growth 409 17.66% 44.36 81.42% -0.279 -0.8603 0.621
Unlimited Undo 506 36.91% 36.17 67.0% -0.963 -0.9192 0.701
Using Tokens but Not Events 542 35.43% 36.45 71.4% 0.931 0.8727 0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1661 15.74 7.16%
II 1928 30.48 59.91%
III 2235 34.79 87.83%
IV 1293 38.41 98.99%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1800
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1015
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1138
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 688
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39
Lose: Adversary condition 765
Win: Sacrifice victory 142
Lose: Scenario condition 119
Win: Scenario condition 304
Lose: Blight pool ran out 914
Lose: Spirit destroyed 75

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)