Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 28.57% 28.86 42.86% -0.379 -0.4311 -0.254
Blitz 0 139 53.28% 32.75 47.48% 0.166 0.3246 -0.165
Dahan Insurrection 4 261 37.55% 64.32 62.07% 0.061 -0.0964 0.5
Despicable Theft 2 20 75.0% 38.6 55.0% -0.964 -0.2491 0.252
Elemental Invocation 1 57 68.42% 33.35 47.37% 0.23 0.9381 -1.397
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 368 17.44% 46.67 77.72% 0.328 -0.3107 2.204
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 64.95% 32.75 49.48% -1.32 -0.8679 -0.858
Rituals of Terror 3 235 41.7% 79.49 66.81% 0.449 0.42 0.933
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.439 -0.5078 -0.187
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 0.986 1.0533 0.366
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 38.29 57.14% 0.462 0.9985 0.209
Ward the Shores 2 92 47.83% 35.82 55.43% -0.595 0.6071 -0.558

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 171 36.08 52.05% 0.048 0.337 0.259
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.534 0.618 -0.048
All Things Weaken 90 33.07 45.56% 0.027 0.5051 -0.346
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% 0.107 0.4097 -0.092
Back Against the Wall 192 35.89 50.52% 0.564 0.7656 -0.517
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.475 0.8104
Disintegrating Ecosystem 186 32.33 55.38% 0.296 0.8536 -0.373
Downward Spiral 325 36.52 54.77% -0.786 -0.4154 0.375
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% 0.115 0.5798 -0.014
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.832 -0.3947
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 36.92 65.79% 0.821 0.3338 -0.351
Memory Fades to Dust 315 36.54 53.02% -0.266 0.2366 0.161
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 33.85 59.77% 0.614 0.9285 -0.584
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -0.961 -0.3379 -0.282
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.239 0.4912
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 22.5 50.0% -0.097 0.4726
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 37.45 74.19% -0.405 -1.1018 0.316
Thriving Communities 118 34.07 59.32% 0.139 0.6609 0.097
Thriving Crops 2 49.5 100.0% 0.391 0.5571
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.024
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.02 50.0% -0.031 0.3005 -0.138
Untended Land Crumbles 108 27.86 36.11% 0.599 0.9883 -0.599

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5269 44.25% 39.45 68.1% -0.039 0.5611 0.28
Northeast 3842 42.51% 40.87 69.0% -0.11 0.7512 0.268
Northwest 2710 46.01% 37.57 66.35% -0.177 0.4886 0.076
Southeast 1031 49.27% 35.79 66.63% 0.288 0.9655 -0.766
Southwest 824 52.07% 33.83 68.57% -0.18 0.984 0.373
West 5085 44.5% 39.36 68.2% 0.199 1.1557 -0.257

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.71
Not Using Events or Tokens 631 40.33% 46.88 68.78% -0.047 0.2694 -0.242
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 14.62% 46.25 84.33% 0.819 0.2721 0.027
Start of Game Growth 333 17.07% 43.46 84.98% 0.819 0.4806 0.027
Unlimited Undo 417 37.06% 38.61 71.22% -0.582 -0.6136 0.632
Using Tokens but Not Events 343 34.04% 38.94 70.55% -0.102 -0.1679 -0.065

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 997 21.15 11.33%
II 1663 31.04 61.7%
III 1885 34.73 87.85%
IV 1005 38.01 98.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1507
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 899
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 933
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 93
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 670
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 278
Lose: Blight pool ran out 790
Lose: Spirit destroyed 66

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-27 04:08:23 (Pacific Time)