Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 39 38.46% 31.87 -2.189 71.79% -0.69 -0.4089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 45 44.44% 36.13 0.162 71.11% -0.546 -0.1558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 20 90.0% 42.5 4.529 70.0% 0.015 0.8854
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 83.33% 29.1 -2.249 26.67% -1.958 -0.7005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 92.86% 37.5 2.405 35.71% -1.268 0.261
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 25.5 -2.722 0.0% -1.075 0.9511
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 45.38 4.765 37.5% -1.519 0.551
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 126 30.95% 35.64 -0.979 85.71% 0.249 0.2872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 114 50.0% 36.23 0.012 83.33% 0.478 0.4471
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 173 43.02% 46.36 5.041 84.97% 0.427 0.4318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 117 57.26% 52.25 8.276 82.05% 0.326 0.6171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 80 61.25% 50.16 7.211 71.25% -0.395 -0.0343
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 32 56.25% 57.63 10.255 65.63% -0.598 0.2304
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 60 78.33% 49.22 6.111 40.0% -1.534 -0.2894
The Kingdom of England 0 1 126 37.3% 32.49 -2.227 73.81% -0.431 -0.0998
The Kingdom of England 1 3 161 40.99% 38.12 1.064 73.29% -0.346 0.1541
The Kingdom of England 2 4 131 61.07% 37.72 0.136 53.44% -1.184 -0.2146
The Kingdom of England 3 6 84 60.71% 39.4 1.626 45.24% -1.667 -0.0878
The Kingdom of England 4 7 60 60.0% 42.18 3.033 45.0% -1.571 -0.0703
The Kingdom of England 5 9 35 74.29% 43.46 4.164 37.14% -1.781 0.2893
The Kingdom of England 6 11 81 57.5% 55.63 6.88 34.57% -2.317 -0.0656
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 106 39.62% 36.18 -0.149 76.42% -0.353 0.1717
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 92 59.78% 33.72 -0.616 61.96% -0.782 0.1108
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 97 42.27% 38.05 0.444 42.27% -1.937 0.1925
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 88 27.27% 33.58 -2.031 19.32% -3.374 -1.1872
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -2.164 11.36% -3.361 -1.2185
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.077 15.22% -3.231 -1.4084
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 91 30.77% 40.64 0.165 14.29% -3.95 -1.8346
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 107 39.25% 31.03 -2.573 79.44% -0.026 0.0622
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 86 39.53% 35.94 -0.544 74.42% -0.304 -0.2846
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 141 55.71% 38.02 0.938 77.3% 0.005 0.228
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 79 62.82% 42.38 3.616 67.09% -0.419 -0.1336
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 82 74.39% 38.84 1.698 50.0% -1.1 -0.3324
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 89.74% 32.95 -0.823 25.64% -1.847 -0.6871
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 67 81.25% 42.94 2.868 41.79% -1.43 -0.2978
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 27 33.33% 29.85 -3.265 81.48% -0.205 -0.3246
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 27 66.67% 37.74 1.494 81.48% 0.467 1.185
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 32 50.0% 48.13 6.441 90.63% 0.875 1.3167
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 15 66.67% 49.13 6.06 66.67% -0.608 0.6425
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 77.78% 45.89 5.572 55.56% -0.923 0.201
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 75.0% 41.75 4.096 25.0% -1.08 0.9663
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 64 37.5% 85.33 17.852 67.19% -1.125 0.8088

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 139 47.45% 35.86 -0.818 55.4% -0.474 0.1067
Dahan Insurrection 4 271 37.27% 63.54 10.97 64.94% 0.077 0.4803
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 38.67 -0.486 33.33% -0.685 -0.3349
Elemental Invocation 1 29 79.31% 32.59 -4.505 41.38% -1.006 -0.6342
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 404 14.36% 43.85 3.213 72.52% -0.167 0.1975
Powers Long Forgotten 1 103 66.02% 34.96 -0.079 54.37% -0.354 0.0868
Rituals of Terror 3 129 56.59% 47.19 5.603 58.14% -0.082 0.5528
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 58 72.41% 39.28 2.202 53.45% -0.695 -0.0543
Second Wave 0 164 53.66% 33.92 -1.879 61.59% -1.106 -0.6821
Ward the Shores 2 112 52.68% 38.07 0.858 53.57% -1.023 0.0179

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 105 33.47 -2.503 50.48% -1.475 0.596
Aid From Lesser Spirits 136 34.61 -2.307 47.79% -1.576 0.3458
All Things Weaken 48 30.56 -4.048 43.75% -1.731 0.4225
Back Against the Wall 132 35.38 -1.676 47.73% -1.323 0.7733
Disintegrating Ecosystem 140 31.32 -3.521 53.57% -1.394 0.8319
Downward Spiral 229 37.14 -1.897 54.59% -1.132 0.8863
Erosion of Will 126 32.66 -3.027 44.44% -1.676 0.5346
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 12 36.75 -0.47 91.67% 0.215 0.9085
Memory Fades to Dust 220 36.78 -2.042 50.0% -1.296 0.9193
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40 32.17 -3.018 55.0% -1.169 0.848
Promising Farmlands 154 32.26 -2.888 53.25% -1.245 0.9686
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 36.91 -0.354 72.73% -0.4 0.03
Thriving Communities 60 35.02 -1.957 66.67% -0.88 1.2161
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -4.126 42.67% -1.638 0.5834
Unnatural Proliferation 57 34.3 -2.403 43.86% -1.637 0.4491
Untended Land Crumbles 60 30.12 -4.381 45.0% -1.542 0.5537

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 2837 43.64% 39.18 1.039 69.51% 0.153 -0.8065
Northeast 2678 41.96% 39.45 1.228 70.09% 0.302 -0.5994
Northwest 2003 44.62% 37.03 -0.85 65.9% -0.231 -1.206
Southeast 501 49.1% 35.39 -1.016 71.06% -0.255 -1.2589
Southwest 443 50.0% 34.18 -0.789 70.2% 0.321 -0.2784
West 2620 44.19% 38.42 -0.081 66.6% -0.239 -0.9382

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 30.72 -5.687 56.0% -1.732 0.3163
Not Using Events or Tokens 401 46.48% 46.68 3.526 64.34% -0.201 0.0196
Skip Initial Invader Actions 182 14.04% 46.13 2.831 84.07% 0.337 -0.3677
Start of Game Growth 255 15.54% 44.84 2.544 85.1% 0.844 0.3921
Unlimited Undo 253 40.74% 42.03 1.372 70.75% 0.175 -0.2419
Using Tokens but Not Events 183 41.48% 35.96 -0.908 68.31% -0.227 -0.2778

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 661 22.33 10.29%
II 1163 30.75 64.14%
III 1272 34.25 88.29%
IV 598 37.47 98.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 31
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 692
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 446
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 451
Lose: Invader deck ran out 26
Lose: Adversary condition 462
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 97
Win: Scenario condition 236
Lose: Blight pool ran out 532
Lose: Spirit destroyed 50

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)