Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 47 46.81% 30.55 -2.559 65.96% -0.891 -0.6014
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 49 44.9% 36.43 0.629 73.47% -0.415 -0.0013
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 27 85.19% 39.52 3.058 62.96% -0.371 0.5118
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 84.38% 29.38 -1.942 28.13% -1.968 -0.726
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 93.33% 36.4 1.956 33.33% -1.362 0.1342
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 100.0% 36.0 2.023 25.0% -0.924 1.0153
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 66.67% 47.78 6.201 44.44% -1.318 0.7244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 143 33.1% 35.57 -0.857 86.01% 0.285 0.3259
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 122 51.67% 35.91 -0.043 81.97% 0.349 0.3312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 189 45.74% 46.25 5.033 84.66% 0.349 0.3623
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 126 58.73% 52.19 8.281 82.54% 0.308 0.591
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 85 63.53% 50.25 7.312 71.76% -0.355 0.004
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 37 59.46% 58.27 10.752 67.57% -0.561 0.2639
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64 79.69% 50.0 6.391 42.19% -1.48 -0.2405
The Kingdom of England 0 1 138 38.41% 32.54 -2.129 74.64% -0.416 -0.0866
The Kingdom of England 1 3 174 39.66% 38.01 1.032 73.56% -0.389 0.1279
The Kingdom of England 2 4 147 63.27% 36.89 -0.043 51.7% -1.266 -0.2922
The Kingdom of England 3 6 97 61.86% 38.35 1.283 43.3% -1.796 -0.2163
The Kingdom of England 4 7 63 61.9% 41.76 2.84 44.44% -1.644 -0.1493
The Kingdom of England 5 9 38 76.32% 42.58 3.931 34.21% -1.936 0.1347
The Kingdom of England 6 11 87 56.98% 56.14 7.353 36.78% -2.278 -0.034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 113 41.59% 35.71 -0.29 75.22% -0.443 0.0686
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 96 60.42% 33.46 -0.669 61.46% -0.846 0.0568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 103 42.72% 38.26 0.577 42.72% -1.961 0.1803
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 98 27.55% 33.26 -1.929 19.39% -3.424 -1.225
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -2.192 11.36% -3.401 -1.2403
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.13 15.22% -3.249 -1.4313
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 101 33.66% 41.2 0.505 15.84% -3.863 -1.7721
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 116 39.66% 30.72 -2.678 78.45% -0.097 -0.0084
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 95 42.11% 35.57 -0.589 73.68% -0.367 -0.3321
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 152 56.29% 37.74 0.899 76.97% -0.084 0.1539
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 84 62.65% 43.35 3.953 69.05% -0.35 -0.0595
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 84 75.0% 38.75 1.66 50.0% -1.12 -0.3389
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 40 90.0% 33.52 -0.607 27.5% -1.837 -0.6686
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 73 82.86% 43.15 2.841 42.47% -1.425 -0.3021
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 34 38.24% 29.47 -3.065 79.41% -0.214 -0.3031
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 34 61.76% 38.5 1.972 79.41% 0.228 1.0072
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 42 47.62% 48.67 6.642 92.86% 1.033 1.4444
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 58.82% 50.76 6.964 70.59% -0.567 0.6775
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 72.73% 45.27 5.661 54.55% -0.895 0.2131
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 75.0% 41.75 4.264 25.0% -1.092 0.8918
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 67 40.3% 83.1 17.134 64.18% -1.438 0.4342

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 143 47.52% 35.63 -0.857 55.24% -0.478 0.0875
Dahan Insurrection 4 286 38.81% 63.36 11.06 65.38% 0.118 0.5186
Despicable Theft 2 6 83.33% 55.67 7.551 66.67% 0.701 0.9752
Elemental Invocation 1 39 76.92% 32.56 -3.6 41.03% -1.048 -0.546
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 421 14.25% 44.01 3.338 73.16% -0.129 0.2361
Powers Long Forgotten 1 107 66.36% 35.15 0.045 55.14% -0.331 0.1153
Rituals of Terror 3 132 56.82% 47.16 5.584 58.33% -0.083 0.5617
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 73.33% 39.72 2.466 55.0% -0.613 0.0332
Second Wave 0 180 52.78% 34.06 -1.677 62.78% -1.039 -0.6093
Ward the Shores 2 115 53.04% 37.93 0.864 53.91% -1.0 0.0321

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 126 33.73 -2.24 50.79% -1.534 0.5354
Aid From Lesser Spirits 150 35.21 -1.997 48.67% -1.532 0.381
All Things Weaken 55 31.98 -3.224 47.27% -1.598 0.5609
Back Against the Wall 145 35.4 -1.638 48.28% -1.33 0.7567
Disintegrating Ecosystem 147 31.67 -3.33 53.74% -1.387 0.8353
Downward Spiral 248 37.24 -1.808 55.24% -1.112 0.9098
Erosion of Will 149 34.0 -2.278 47.65% -1.45 0.7575
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 33.6 -1.281 65.0% -0.53 0.1487
Memory Fades to Dust 247 36.56 -2.03 51.01% -1.287 0.9281
Power Corrodes the Spirit 54 32.54 -2.919 59.26% -1.216 0.805
Promising Farmlands 161 32.1 -2.889 53.42% -1.253 0.9551
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 36.91 -0.353 72.73% -0.38 0.0311
Thriving Communities 71 34.69 -1.875 66.2% -0.92 1.1676
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -4.12 42.67% -1.636 0.589
Unnatural Proliferation 67 33.79 -2.326 46.27% -1.592 0.4887
Untended Land Crumbles 67 29.25 -4.764 41.79% -1.723 0.3792

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 3104 44.2% 39.03 1.081 69.78% 0.183 -0.3932
Northeast 2900 42.73% 39.32 1.206 70.31% 0.301 -0.2238
Northwest 2150 45.74% 37.07 -0.722 66.37% -0.176 -0.7715
Southeast 599 50.33% 35.04 -1.041 69.78% -0.262 -0.891
Southwest 533 51.98% 33.56 -1.061 68.48% 0.216 0.0173
West 2852 44.8% 38.23 -0.027 66.87% -0.212 -0.5393

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 30.07 -5.392 58.62% -1.748 0.3051
Not Using Events or Tokens 427 48.04% 46.55 3.509 64.64% -0.162 0.0525
Skip Initial Invader Actions 192 13.83% 45.54 2.779 84.38% 0.139 -0.5472
Start of Game Growth 277 15.38% 44.08 2.387 85.92% 0.941 0.472
Unlimited Undo 293 40.36% 40.43 0.899 73.04% 0.239 -0.1838
Using Tokens but Not Events 219 38.76% 34.77 -1.23 70.32% -0.156 -0.2066

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 711 22.37 9.99%
II 1260 30.88 63.73%
III 1402 34.39 88.09%
IV 673 37.55 98.81%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 797
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 497
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 526
Lose: Invader deck ran out 28
Lose: Adversary condition 503
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 99
Win: Scenario condition 249
Lose: Blight pool ran out 589
Lose: Spirit destroyed 53

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)