Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 57 28.07% 19.47 36.84% 0.026 -0.0029
Blitz 0 257 38.04% 22.9 36.19% -0.483 -0.24 -0.415
Dahan Insurrection 4 421 36.34% 52.39 49.64% -0.223 -0.2099 0.198
Despicable Theft 2 49 46.94% 24.51 32.65% -0.164 0.6018 -0.191
Elemental Invocation 1 128 52.34% 25.35 33.59% -0.255 0.4977 -0.285
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 613 19.61% 41.09 66.88% -0.164 -0.7599 0.1
Powers Long Forgotten 1 167 49.7% 25.39 39.52% -0.623 0.1245 -0.047
Rituals of Terror 3 677 19.97% 93.91 65.88% -0.032 0.4467 1.558
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 83 49.4% 27.99 38.55% -0.465 0.2231 -0.352
Second Wave 0 473 48.09% 28.64 70.61% 1.494 1.4891
Varied Terrains 2 47 46.81% 26.83 38.3%
Ward the Shores 2 138 40.58% 29.7 47.1% -0.819 0.0507 -0.234

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 223 34.2 49.33% 0.232 0.3805 -0.193
Aid From Lesser Spirits 275 33.58 45.45% -0.036 -0.1491 -0.182
All Things Weaken 166 30.61 45.78% 0.06 0.4354 -0.626
Attenuated Essence 48 29.85 54.17% -0.048
Back Against the Wall 270 35.17 50.37% 0.246 0.2871 0.771
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 31.74 41.86% 0.365 0.571 0.682
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 28.94 47.92% 0.385 0.4301 -0.08
Disintegrating Ecosystem 247 30.54 50.61% 0.093 0.591 0.053
Downward Spiral 441 35.34 56.46% 0.661 0.9115 0.625
Erosion of Will 247 33.11 45.75% 0.28 0.5379 0.269
Intensifying Exploitation 60 26.9 38.33% -0.724 -0.5046 -0.261
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 44.16 74.32% 1.65
Memory Fades to Dust 439 35.39 53.3% -0.1 0.105 0.744
Power Corrodes the Spirit 165 32.04 54.55% -0.755 -0.5566 0.012
Promising Farmlands 256 31.6 50.78% 0.162 0.5179 0.555
Shattered Fragments of Power 51 39.0 58.82% -0.409 -0.1916 1.281
Slow Dissolution of Will 55 34.4 54.55% 0.073 0.5025 -0.135
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 42 31.29 64.29% -0.175
The Border of Life and Death 19 26.53 78.95% -0.55
Thriving Communities 179 31.55 58.66% 0.327 0.6467 0.339
Thriving Crops 31 33.48 67.74% 0.114 -0.0051 -0.217
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67%
Unnatural Proliferation 192 30.71 46.88% -0.132 -0.0428 -0.393
Untended Land Crumbles 178 29.59 42.7% 0.125 0.3498 -0.178

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 9265 39.39% 36.23 59.24% 0.355 1.1385 -0.505
Northeast 6458 37.53% 39.3 61.07% 0.166 0.928 0.603
Northwest 4422 41.66% 32.35 57.76% -0.124 0.7184 -0.233
Southeast 2261 42.06% 29.59 56.17% -0.319 0.3208 -0.079
Southwest 1935 43.98% 26.92 54.32% -0.166 0.8789 -0.049
West 8980 39.64% 35.99 58.88% 0.072 0.8475 0.242

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 112 0.0% 21.53 32.14% 0.406 1.2796
Not Using Events or Tokens 1015 32.48% 35.48 52.41% -1.084 -0.7068 -0.185
Skip Initial Invader Actions 374 14.56% 39.88 67.91% -0.744 -1.0359 -0.198
Start of Game Growth 583 15.88% 38.4 72.9% 0.266 -0.2909 -0.39
Unlimited Undo 745 33.43% 31.68 61.34% 1.171 1.2342 0.343
Using Tokens but Not Events 840 33.58% 37.19 71.19% 0.501 0.374 -0.233

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2730 12.44 4.73%
II 2414 29.94 57.54%
III 2790 34.9 87.1%
IV 1851 38.84 99.19%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 128
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2250
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1229
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1533
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1595
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 985
Win: Sacrifice victory 305
Lose: Scenario condition 147
Win: Scenario condition 339
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1139
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)