Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 64 48.44% 29.8 -7.017 62.5% -0.98 -0.7712
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 69 44.93% 37.59 0.513 78.26% 0.319 0.7414
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 74.42% 40.93 67.44%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 52 76.92% 34.21 9.069 32.69% 0.023 1.1068
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 85.71% 40.62 38.1%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 83.33% 39.5 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34 35.29% 65.18 26.596 29.41% 0.521 2.6073
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 181 37.22% 35.14 -10.685 81.22% -0.841 -0.7919
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 165 51.53% 34.89 -6.997 78.18% -0.559 -0.672
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 255 49.61% 45.76 4.082 79.61% 0.141 0.1061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 162 56.17% 52.57 5.976 82.72% -0.023 0.3398
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 96 63.54% 51.19 20.867 72.92% 0.341 0.3871
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 61 47.54% 63.05 -2.76 75.41% -0.252 0.296
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 91 70.33% 65.47 12.106 46.15% -0.142 1.2604
The Kingdom of England 0 1 189 37.04% 32.93 -1.267 70.9% 0.109 0.2607
The Kingdom of England 1 3 224 40.81% 39.33 3.037 74.11% -0.2 0.0696
The Kingdom of England 2 4 203 60.1% 37.75 -2.684 54.19% 0.196 1.0224
The Kingdom of England 3 6 156 67.31% 35.13 -2.998 30.77% 0.033 1.2991
The Kingdom of England 4 7 83 61.45% 43.48 5.316 45.78% -0.155 0.9241
The Kingdom of England 5 9 42 73.81% 44.19 1.04 33.33% -0.553 1.088
The Kingdom of England 6 11 142 44.68% 73.22 20.182 44.37% 0.449 2.5049
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 138 44.93% 36.01 -4.822 73.91% 0.093 0.4157
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 125 62.4% 33.58 4.979 61.6% 0.423 1.4569
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 127 40.94% 37.22 20.752 40.16% 0.227 1.4858
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 114 29.82% 33.47 -3.643 20.18% -0.767 0.7798
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 59 40.68% 34.42 15.25%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 15.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 140 35.0% 56.22 12.963 25.71% -0.039 1.4811
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 10 20.0% 19.5 -10.53 40.0% -0.931 -1.1368
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 83.33% 25.33 -4.503 33.33% -0.476 0.0372
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 10 30.0% 39.4 -0.838 80.0% -0.218 0.227
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 22.22% 55.44 5.579 77.78% -0.235 0.1549
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 58.33% 52.75 8.667 66.67% 0.273 0.931
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 8 50.0% 56.88 5.192 62.5% -0.284 0.6166
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 24 33.33% 91.13 -4.225 50.0% -0.804 0.6134
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 164 38.41% 31.48 -6.342 76.83% -0.26 -0.1518
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 128 42.97% 35.45 -7.538 74.22% -0.443 -0.4339
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 212 49.29% 38.68 5.609 77.36% 0.554 0.7906
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 118 61.54% 43.56 5.23 71.19% -0.203 0.1439
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 75.0% 39.93 16.426 52.17% 0.099 0.902
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 50 88.0% 33.72 -1.061 26.0% -0.832 0.3109
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 96 79.57% 47.81 15.775 46.88% 0.958 1.827
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 57 40.35% 29.46 -4.563 75.44% 0.098 -0.0074
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 48 68.75% 36.77 6.501 72.92% 0.22 0.8502
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 57 49.12% 46.37 87.72%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 30 70.0% 51.03 -4.876 73.33% -0.117 1.0925
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 21 71.43% 39.57 38.1%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 55.5 18.571 50.0% 0.579 2.1699
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 152 30.26% 106.77 14.002 68.42% -0.368 1.6885

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 12 33.33% 33.67 50.0% -0.081 -0.198 -0.245
Blitz 0 137 54.07% 32.66 46.72% -0.404 -0.2022 -0.155
Dahan Insurrection 4 257 37.74% 65.08 62.65% -0.019 -0.2665 0.511
Despicable Theft 2 19 78.95% 40.63 57.89% -0.973 -0.2667 0.254
Elemental Invocation 1 55 69.09% 34.56 49.09% 0.497 1.2778 -1.342
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 362 17.45% 47.19 78.45% 0.483 -0.2498 2.266
Powers Long Forgotten 1 94 65.96% 33.8 51.06% -0.72 -0.1947 -0.916
Rituals of Terror 3 234 41.88% 79.83 67.09% 0.657 0.6176 0.861
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.358 -0.3004 -0.171
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 1.045 1.1583 0.245
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 43.25 50.0% 0.17 0.7901 0.213
Ward the Shores 2 91 48.35% 35.77 54.95% -0.723 0.3954 -0.579

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5199 44.33% 39.71 68.46% -0.268 0.4487 0.265
Northeast 3792 42.59% 41.15 69.41% -0.173 0.7207 0.305
Northwest 2678 46.11% 37.81 66.69% 0.098 0.7227 0.053
Southeast 1013 49.36% 36.05 66.93% 0.312 0.9949 -0.735
Southwest 806 52.24% 34.1 68.98% -0.4 0.8838 0.297
West 5017 44.56% 39.61 68.55% 0.447 1.4698 -0.21

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.768
Not Using Events or Tokens 616 40.67% 47.58 69.81% 0.439 0.7546 -0.047
Skip Initial Invader Actions 216 14.69% 46.27 84.26% 0.83 0.2755 0.017
Start of Game Growth 332 17.13% 43.47 84.94% 0.83 0.399 0.017
Unlimited Undo 404 37.79% 39.58 72.77% -0.073 -0.1901 0.73
Using Tokens but Not Events 338 34.56% 39.26 70.71% -0.541 -0.6209 -0.042

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 964 21.5 11.72%
II 1648 31.06 62.01%
III 1869 34.72 87.75%
IV 994 38.0 98.89%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1493
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 895
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 922
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 57
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 666
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 276
Lose: Blight pool ran out 787
Lose: Spirit destroyed 65

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-21 03:39:51 (Pacific Time)