Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 45.5 100.0% 0.339 0.1372
Blitz 0 122 55.83% 32.8 47.54% -1.316 -1.0584 0.023
Dahan Insurrection 4 238 37.39% 65.28 63.87% -0.597 -0.1837 0.588
Despicable Theft 2 12 83.33% 51.42 75.0% -0.207 0.2394 0.191
Elemental Invocation 1 48 70.83% 32.83 45.83% -0.718 -0.2324 -1.412
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 313 18.59% 45.2 75.72% -0.032 0.2738 2.107
Powers Long Forgotten 1 88 68.18% 34.67 53.41% 0.235 0.4165 -0.766
Rituals of Terror 3 172 52.91% 66.61 61.63% -0.419 -0.298 0.59
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 48 75.0% 41.85 56.25% 0.147
Second Wave 0 247 42.51% 30.12 76.11% -0.466 0.0995 0.378
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 38.33 33.33% -0.593 -0.0666 -0.219
Ward the Shores 2 85 49.41% 37.24 56.47% -1.357 -0.1956 -0.54

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 154 35.6 50.65% -0.682 1.2206 0.2
Aid From Lesser Spirits 181 35.92 48.07% -0.099 1.6307 -0.331
All Things Weaken 82 32.1 43.9% -0.589 1.3962 -0.613
Back Against the Wall 181 35.25 48.62% -0.076 1.7405 -0.554
Disintegrating Ecosystem 173 32.22 55.49% -0.12 1.9305 -0.282
Downward Spiral 297 37.12 55.56% -0.636 1.3575 0.452
Erosion of Will 184 33.23 46.2% -0.762 1.321 0.02
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 32 36.59 62.5% -0.522 -0.0811 -0.283
Memory Fades to Dust 296 36.41 53.38% -0.086 1.9977 0.217
Power Corrodes the Spirit 76 33.3 56.58% 0.521 2.4594 -0.758
Promising Farmlands 186 32.51 51.08% -0.352 1.694 -0.206
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 36.57 75.0% -0.224 0.2006 0.337
Thriving Communities 102 33.51 59.8% -0.81 1.1739 -0.058
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 93 33.06 49.46% -0.673 1.291 0.042
Untended Land Crumbles 94 28.04 35.11% -0.835 1.1577 -0.411

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 4690 45.5% 39.03 68.36% 0.259 1.028 0.427
Northeast 3456 43.79% 40.16 69.33% -0.001 0.8591 0.204
Northwest 2468 46.76% 37.48 66.13% -0.289 0.7878 -0.013
Southeast 850 51.65% 35.7 66.47% -0.342 0.3641 -0.881
Southwest 686 52.35% 33.91 69.53% 0.762 1.8872 0.27
West 4537 45.49% 38.94 68.37% -0.371 0.583 -0.033

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.743
Not Using Events or Tokens 553 43.23% 47.25 67.99% 0.491 0.6656 -0.457
Skip Initial Invader Actions 199 13.4% 45.2 84.92% -0.135
Start of Game Growth 309 15.79% 42.85 85.44% 0.08 -0.68 -0.135
Unlimited Undo 351 41.37% 39.39 73.79% 0.296 -0.3079 0.676
Using Tokens but Not Events 283 36.4% 35.82 72.44% 0.038 -0.1185 -0.158

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 830 22.56 10.24%
II 1525 30.98 61.64%
III 1726 34.53 87.54%
IV 861 37.77 98.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 84
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1369
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 819
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 822
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 612
Win: Sacrifice victory 27
Lose: Scenario condition 107
Win: Scenario condition 265
Lose: Blight pool ran out 741
Lose: Spirit destroyed 62

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)