Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 26.67% 26.93 40.0% -0.668 -0.8356 -0.258
Blitz 0 139 53.28% 32.75 47.48% 0.29 0.4401 -0.156
Dahan Insurrection 4 263 37.26% 64.22 62.36% 0.386 0.1741 0.51
Despicable Theft 2 20 75.0% 38.6 55.0% -0.818 -0.1016 0.259
Elemental Invocation 1 57 68.42% 33.35 47.37% 0.288 1.0391 -1.388
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 371 17.3% 46.51 77.36% 0.368 -0.24 2.22
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 64.95% 32.75 49.48% -1.404 -0.904 -0.851
Rituals of Terror 3 236 41.95% 79.16 66.53% 0.515 0.6231 0.955
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 53 67.92% 38.79 52.83% -0.809 0.2448 -0.18
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 1.16 1.24 0.372
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 38.29 57.14% 0.355 0.9367 0.212
Ward the Shores 2 94 47.87% 35.63 55.32% -0.287 0.9144 -0.547

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 172 35.87 51.74% 0.064 0.3304 0.18
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.859 0.8661 -0.044
All Things Weaken 90 33.07 45.56% -0.164 0.2722 -0.337
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% 0.106 0.2961 -0.09
Back Against the Wall 195 35.55 49.74% -0.043 0.0986 -0.513
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.491 0.7848
Disintegrating Ecosystem 186 32.33 55.38% 0.293 0.7959 -0.366
Downward Spiral 326 36.58 54.91% -0.482 -0.1526 0.385
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% 0.245 0.6303 -0.01
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.739 -0.3716
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 36.92 65.79% 0.7 0.1801 -0.351
Memory Fades to Dust 315 36.54 53.02% -0.219 0.2469 0.171
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 33.85 59.77% 0.67 0.96 -0.574
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -0.887 -0.3181 -0.272
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.371 0.524
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 25.0 33.33% -0.198 0.3044 -0.059
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 32 36.28 71.88% -0.839 -1.4918 0.324
Thriving Communities 118 34.07 59.32% 0.213 0.6742 0.103
Thriving Crops 2 49.5 100.0% 0.388 0.4351
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.034
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.02 50.0% -0.096 0.196 -0.129
Untended Land Crumbles 109 27.61 35.78% 0.509 0.8302 -0.591

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5303 44.12% 39.31 67.89% 0.084 0.6795 0.295
Northeast 3865 42.36% 40.73 68.82% -0.161 0.6977 0.259
Northwest 2725 45.83% 37.43 66.17% -0.034 0.6637 0.072
Southeast 1043 48.9% 35.66 66.35% 0.251 0.9097 -0.783
Southwest 833 51.75% 33.65 68.19% -0.18 0.9693 0.392
West 5116 44.39% 39.22 67.96% 0.026 0.966 -0.261

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.708
Not Using Events or Tokens 632 40.26% 46.8 68.67% -0.01 0.316 -0.237
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 14.62% 46.25 84.33% 0.831 0.2902 0.025
Start of Game Growth 333 17.07% 43.46 84.98% 0.831 0.5117 0.025
Unlimited Undo 421 36.7% 38.43 71.26% -0.332 -0.3462 0.632
Using Tokens but Not Events 345 33.83% 38.95 70.72% 0.337 0.2796 -0.067

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1014 20.97 11.14%
II 1675 31.03 61.61%
III 1889 34.74 87.88%
IV 1007 38.02 98.91%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1511
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 902
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 935
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 670
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 109
Win: Scenario condition 281
Lose: Blight pool ran out 794
Lose: Spirit destroyed 66

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)