Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 33 39.39% 31.58 -1.799 69.7% -0.697 -0.4169
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 36 47.22% 36.08 0.396 69.44% -0.567 -0.1937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 17 94.12% 44.65 5.788 76.47% 0.291 1.1389
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 83.33% 29.1 -2.303 26.67% -1.979 -0.7414
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 92.31% 38.0 3.072 38.46% -1.092 0.43
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 25.5 -3.068 0.0% -1.115 0.9132
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 45.38 5.297 37.5% -1.472 0.6203
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 116 31.9% 35.89 -0.629 85.34% 0.283 0.3306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 103 51.49% 36.07 0.062 82.52% 0.455 0.427
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 161 41.25% 46.84 5.315 85.09% 0.413 0.4104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 113 57.52% 52.72 8.693 83.19% 0.411 0.6953
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 80 61.25% 50.16 7.404 71.25% -0.386 -0.0074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 30 56.67% 58.0 10.529 66.67% -0.527 0.3062
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 57 78.95% 49.56 6.509 40.35% -1.523 -0.2737
The Kingdom of England 0 1 119 34.45% 32.8 -2.056 73.11% -0.518 -0.1849
The Kingdom of England 1 3 149 40.94% 38.86 1.507 75.17% -0.204 0.2792
The Kingdom of England 2 4 121 59.5% 38.19 0.581 54.55% -1.119 -0.162
The Kingdom of England 3 6 82 59.76% 39.57 1.752 45.12% -1.673 -0.0958
The Kingdom of England 4 7 60 60.0% 42.18 3.186 45.0% -1.56 -0.0375
The Kingdom of England 5 9 33 75.76% 41.85 3.497 33.33% -1.921 0.1425
The Kingdom of England 6 11 72 59.15% 53.78 6.68 31.94% -2.332 -0.0765
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 93 36.56% 37.53 0.536 79.57% -0.163 0.3614
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 85 61.18% 32.82 -0.966 60.0% -0.839 0.0521
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 92 42.39% 37.46 0.397 41.3% -1.98 0.1479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 86 26.74% 33.8 -1.737 19.77% -3.335 -1.1488
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 44 38.64% 32.68 -1.965 11.36% -3.34 -1.1951
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 26.09% 37.41 0.202 15.22% -3.219 -1.4006
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 89 30.34% 40.82 0.579 14.61% -3.911 -1.7761
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 93 35.48% 31.26 -2.397 78.49% -0.116 -0.0305
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 80 38.75% 35.73 -0.526 73.75% -0.351 -0.3412
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 124 52.85% 38.68 1.2 77.42% -0.038 0.1793
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 78 62.34% 42.62 3.829 67.95% -0.392 -0.1073
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 79 73.42% 38.37 1.507 48.1% -1.196 -0.4184
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 89.74% 32.95 -0.736 25.64% -1.869 -0.704
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 67 81.25% 42.94 2.995 41.79% -1.432 -0.2994
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 20 35.0% 30.1 -3.029 85.0% 0.071 -0.0467
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 21 66.67% 38.33 2.089 80.95% 0.411 1.0998
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 23 52.17% 45.91 6.055 91.3% 0.817 1.2527
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 76.92% 48.08 6.056 61.54% -0.655 0.6198
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 77.78% 45.89 5.316 55.56% -0.967 0.1908
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 66.67% 46.67 5.302 33.33% -0.955 1.0806
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 58.33% 77.67 18.186 66.67% -0.505 1.4445

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 128 46.03% 36.39 -0.532 53.91% -0.436 0.1365
Dahan Insurrection 4 217 41.94% 56.52 9.433 61.29% 0.097 0.4982
Elemental Invocation 1 4 75.0% 38.75 1.821 75.0% 0.142 0.6077
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 388 13.66% 43.71 3.224 72.42% -0.161 0.2145
Powers Long Forgotten 1 95 65.26% 34.68 -0.292 52.63% -0.433 0.0139
Rituals of Terror 3 125 56.8% 47.59 5.789 58.4% -0.018 0.6044
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 57 73.68% 39.11 2.09 52.63% -0.749 -0.1244
Second Wave 0 157 53.5% 34.5 -1.58 62.42% -1.065 -0.6458
Ward the Shores 2 106 54.72% 37.43 0.506 50.94% -1.11 -0.0793

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 96 34.34 -1.858 53.13% -1.287 0.7812
Aid From Lesser Spirits 120 35.64 -1.552 49.17% -1.449 0.4674
All Things Weaken 41 30.24 -3.759 46.34% -1.565 0.5948
Back Against the Wall 120 35.69 -1.279 48.33% -1.215 0.8772
Disintegrating Ecosystem 133 31.65 -3.194 53.38% -1.327 0.8943
Downward Spiral 222 37.09 -1.746 54.05% -1.118 0.8958
Erosion of Will 119 31.92 -3.176 42.86% -1.727 0.4843
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 37.67 0.242 88.89% 0.102 0.8136
Memory Fades to Dust 206 36.83 -1.919 49.03% -1.273 0.9427
Power Corrodes the Spirit 35 31.94 -2.639 54.29% -1.141 0.8791
Promising Farmlands 140 32.65 -2.589 52.14% -1.222 0.9927
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 35.8 0.011 75.0% -0.212 0.2048
Thriving Communities 53 35.04 -1.943 66.04% -0.878 1.2289
Tipping Point 75 30.11 -3.951 42.67% -1.634 0.5823
Unnatural Proliferation 48 34.33 -2.308 43.75% -1.683 0.3978
Untended Land Crumbles 44 31.32 -3.262 45.45% -1.351 0.7447

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 2605 43.37% 38.38 0.854 69.17% 0.135 -0.8009
Northeast 2485 41.83% 38.64 1.091 69.74% 0.3 -0.569
Northwest 1893 44.23% 37.14 -0.596 65.82% -0.214 -1.1591
Southeast 422 47.87% 35.39 -0.695 72.27% -0.222 -1.2052
Southwest 374 50.94% 34.11 -0.749 70.05% 0.299 -0.3258
West 2418 44.38% 37.58 -0.348 65.92% -0.247 -0.9127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 22 0.0% 32.55 -4.976 59.09% -1.508 0.531
Not Using Events or Tokens 384 45.78% 46.63 3.685 63.8% -0.255 -0.0351
Skip Initial Invader Actions 172 14.88% 46.41 2.875 83.14% 0.206 -0.5001
Start of Game Growth 243 15.9% 45.17 2.724 84.77% 0.944 0.4849
Unlimited Undo 230 39.82% 43.21 1.79 69.57% 0.157 -0.2457
Using Tokens but Not Events 167 43.83% 36.15 -0.823 66.47% -0.234 -0.2798

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 621 22.34 10.47%
II 1062 30.71 63.84%
III 1187 34.23 88.29%
IV 529 37.48 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 629
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 415
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 384
Lose: Invader deck ran out 24
Lose: Adversary condition 443
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 91
Win: Scenario condition 187
Lose: Blight pool ran out 480
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)