Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 28.57% 28.86 42.86% -0.385 -0.4501 -0.255
Blitz 0 139 53.28% 32.75 47.48% 0.161 0.3365 -0.171
Dahan Insurrection 4 261 37.55% 64.32 62.07% 0.038 -0.1329 0.495
Despicable Theft 2 20 75.0% 38.6 55.0% -0.973 -0.3032 0.254
Elemental Invocation 1 57 68.42% 33.35 47.37% 0.196 0.8787 -1.391
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 368 17.44% 46.67 77.72% 0.329 -0.2934 2.191
Powers Long Forgotten 1 97 64.95% 32.75 49.48% -1.275 -0.8141 -0.86
Rituals of Terror 3 235 41.7% 79.49 66.81% 0.469 0.4102 0.929
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.419 -0.4742 -0.195
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 0.937 1.004 0.36
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 38.29 57.14% 0.479 1.0318 0.206
Ward the Shores 2 92 47.83% 35.82 55.43% -0.61 0.5998 -0.559

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 171 36.08 52.05% 0.117 0.4143 0.253
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.547 0.6486 -0.051
All Things Weaken 90 33.07 45.56% 0.018 0.5148 -0.35
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% 0.025 0.3543 -0.093
Back Against the Wall 192 35.89 50.52% 0.584 0.8136 -0.521
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.442 0.8072
Disintegrating Ecosystem 186 32.33 55.38% 0.349 0.9319 -0.374
Downward Spiral 324 36.59 54.94% -0.622 -0.2403 0.372
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% 0.194 0.6868 -0.017
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.859 -0.3887
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 36.92 65.79% 0.828 0.3584 -0.354
Memory Fades to Dust 315 36.54 53.02% -0.335 0.1762 0.159
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 33.85 59.77% 0.579 0.9227 -0.588
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -1.05 -0.4128 -0.284
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.261 0.532
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 37.45 74.19% -0.449 -1.1358 0.317
Thriving Communities 118 34.07 59.32% 0.196 0.7443 0.092
Thriving Crops 1 63.0 100.0% 0.113 0.3261
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.017
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.02 50.0% -0.018 0.3349 -0.151
Untended Land Crumbles 108 27.86 36.11% 0.564 0.9665 -0.602

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5259 44.26% 39.48 68.15% -0.072 0.5589 0.284
Northeast 3836 42.55% 40.91 69.06% -0.111 0.7615 0.259
Northwest 2707 46.06% 37.6 66.38% -0.14 0.4886 0.08
Southeast 1029 49.17% 35.83 66.67% 0.404 1.081 -0.765
Southwest 822 51.96% 33.83 68.61% -0.285 0.8927 0.367
West 5076 44.52% 39.39 68.24% 0.185 1.1393 -0.249

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.711
Not Using Events or Tokens 627 40.59% 47.09 69.06% 0.014 0.3253 -0.24
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 14.62% 46.25 84.33% 0.837 0.3128 0.026
Start of Game Growth 333 17.07% 43.46 84.98% 0.837 0.483 0.026
Unlimited Undo 417 37.06% 38.61 71.22% -0.499 -0.5331 0.63
Using Tokens but Not Events 343 34.04% 38.94 70.55% -0.065 -0.129 -0.068

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 992 21.2 11.39%
II 1662 31.05 61.73%
III 1884 34.73 87.85%
IV 1002 38.01 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1506
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 899
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 930
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 88
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 670
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 278
Lose: Blight pool ran out 789
Lose: Spirit destroyed 66

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)