Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 28.57% 28.86 42.86% -0.426 -0.5093 -0.257
Blitz 0 138 53.68% 32.7 47.1% -0.076 0.0981 -0.174
Dahan Insurrection 4 260 37.69% 64.33 61.92% -0.451 -0.5996 0.495
Despicable Theft 2 19 78.95% 40.63 57.89% -0.73 -0.0754 0.325
Elemental Invocation 1 57 68.42% 33.35 47.37% 0.198 0.9034 -1.391
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 367 17.49% 46.66 77.66% 0.073 -0.5319 2.192
Powers Long Forgotten 1 96 64.58% 33.09 50.0% -1.179 -0.6846 -0.86
Rituals of Terror 3 234 41.88% 79.83 67.09% 0.502 0.4198 0.926
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.359 -0.432 -0.197
Second Wave 0 287 41.46% 30.31 76.31% 0.853 0.9149 0.356
Varied Terrains 2 6 66.67% 35.0 50.0% 0.259 0.8353 0.202
Ward the Shores 2 92 47.83% 35.82 55.43% -0.681 0.515 -0.557

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 171 36.08 52.05% 0.131 0.4459 0.242
Aid From Lesser Spirits 201 36.7 48.26% 0.55 0.6833 -0.052
All Things Weaken 89 33.44 46.07% 0.155 0.6764 -0.352
Attenuated Essence 2 14.5 50.0% -0.02 0.3401 -0.093
Back Against the Wall 192 35.89 50.52% 0.488 0.7382 -0.522
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 34.0 100.0% 0.39 0.8244
Disintegrating Ecosystem 186 32.33 55.38% 0.216 0.8157 -0.374
Downward Spiral 324 36.59 54.94% -0.447 -0.0418 0.371
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% 0.184 0.7202 -0.023
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.8 20.0% -0.927 -0.4116
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 38 36.92 65.79% 0.82 0.3772 -0.357
Memory Fades to Dust 315 36.54 53.02% -0.303 0.2302 0.158
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 33.85 59.77% 0.698 1.0499 -0.592
Promising Farmlands 199 31.92 50.25% -1.034 -0.3602 -0.285
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.288 0.5892
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 37.45 74.19% -0.408 -1.0747 0.313
Thriving Communities 118 34.07 59.32% 0.163 0.7405 0.092
Thriving Crops 1 63.0 100.0% 0.1 0.348
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 106 33.02 50.0% -0.017 0.3592 -0.154
Untended Land Crumbles 108 27.86 36.11% 0.495 0.9247 -0.603

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5248 44.34% 39.52 68.2% -0.183 0.4444 0.276
Northeast 3826 42.63% 40.94 69.11% -0.199 0.6982 0.255
Northwest 2702 46.11% 37.62 66.43% -0.025 0.6194 0.079
Southeast 1026 49.32% 35.9 66.76% 0.553 1.2349 -0.761
Southwest 821 52.02% 33.88 68.7% -0.379 0.8006 0.372
West 5067 44.58% 39.42 68.28% 0.215 1.2072 -0.247

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.712
Not Using Events or Tokens 623 40.86% 47.27 69.34% 0.223 0.5218 -0.238
Skip Initial Invader Actions 217 14.62% 46.25 84.33% 0.853 0.3182 0.026
Start of Game Growth 333 17.07% 43.46 84.98% 0.853 0.4988 0.026
Unlimited Undo 417 37.06% 38.61 71.22% -0.52 -0.5535 0.626
Using Tokens but Not Events 342 34.14% 38.97 70.47% -0.076 -0.1378 -0.07

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 987 21.26 11.45%
II 1660 31.05 61.75%
III 1881 34.73 87.83%
IV 1001 38.01 98.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1504
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 898
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 929
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 83
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 669
Win: Sacrifice victory 60
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 277
Lose: Blight pool ran out 789
Lose: Spirit destroyed 66

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-25 04:12:57 (Pacific Time)