Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 36.36% 36.73 54.55% 0.2 0.0587
Blitz 0 134 54.55% 33.0 47.01% -0.523 -0.1848 -0.098
Dahan Insurrection 4 257 37.74% 65.08 62.65% 0.53 0.2897 0.537
Despicable Theft 2 17 88.24% 45.41 64.71% -0.275 0.3248 0.289
Elemental Invocation 1 55 69.09% 34.56 49.09% 0.298 1.1293 -1.289
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 358 17.65% 47.32 78.49% 0.432 0.066 2.314
Powers Long Forgotten 1 92 67.39% 34.53 52.17% -0.142 0.3248 -0.871
Rituals of Terror 3 226 43.36% 79.0 67.26% 0.102 -0.1713 0.926
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 52 69.23% 38.63 51.92% -1.37 -0.6745 -0.207
Second Wave 0 280 41.79% 30.33 76.07% 1.57 1.7575 0.396
Varied Terrains 2 3 33.33% 38.33 33.33% -0.366
Ward the Shores 2 87 49.43% 37.41 57.47% -0.516

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 165 36.07 52.12% -0.033 0.9382 0.069
Aid From Lesser Spirits 198 36.33 47.47% 0.207 0.9922 -0.321
All Things Weaken 89 33.44 46.07% -0.39 0.6984 -0.371
Back Against the Wall 191 35.86 50.26% 0.033 0.8621 -0.541
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 67.0 100.0% 0.078 1.019
Disintegrating Ecosystem 183 32.5 55.74% 0.671 1.7901 -0.358
Downward Spiral 315 36.99 55.87% 0.468 1.4307 0.393
Erosion of Will 191 33.73 46.07% -0.573 0.5437 -0.08
Intensifying Exploitation 3 30.0 33.33% -0.34 0.734
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 37 36.92 64.86% 0.504 0.3882 -0.402
Memory Fades to Dust 313 36.69 53.35% -0.029 1.0842 0.228
Power Corrodes the Spirit 86 33.83 59.3% 0.654 1.6097 -0.65
Promising Farmlands 195 32.48 51.28% -0.074 1.0612 -0.318
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 42.0 100.0% 0.174 1.096
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 37.8 76.67% 0.43
Thriving Communities 113 34.09 58.41% 0.124 1.2711 -0.12
Tipping Point 75 30.11 42.67% 0.018
Unnatural Proliferation 105 33.12 50.48% -0.349 0.6162 -0.185
Untended Land Crumbles 105 27.9 35.24% -0.358 0.6739 -0.535

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 52 40.38% 20.19 80.77%
B 38 31.58% 24.37 92.11%
C 54 27.78% 23.43 90.74%
D 49 36.73% 22.14 91.84%
E 46 23.91% 22.24 89.13%
F 51 29.41% 23.47 92.16%
G 48 29.17% 22.92 89.58%
H 49 22.45% 23.86 91.84%
East 5124 44.61% 39.84 68.7% 0.066 0.7267 0.341
Northeast 3743 42.88% 41.22 69.62% 0.059 0.9233 0.298
Northwest 2636 46.32% 37.96 66.77% -0.122 0.4638 0.054
Southeast 993 49.65% 36.2 67.27% 0.241 0.9322 -0.718
Southwest 787 52.11% 34.25 69.5% -0.208 1.0334 0.166
West 4942 44.78% 39.73 68.76% -0.023 0.9933 -0.169

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32 0.0% 31.09 62.5% -0.734
Not Using Events or Tokens 609 41.16% 47.68 69.79% 0.551 0.7417 -0.345
Skip Initial Invader Actions 215 14.29% 46.29 84.19% 0.871 0.1552 0.014
Start of Game Growth 331 16.87% 43.47 84.89% 0.871 0.3993 0.014
Unlimited Undo 394 38.79% 40.22 73.6% -0.28 -0.5309 0.798
Using Tokens but Not Events 331 35.31% 39.08 71.6% -0.083 -0.0819 -0.134

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 932 22.19 12.12%
II 1637 31.1 61.88%
III 1853 34.71 87.8%
IV 972 37.97 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 112
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1480
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 886
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 905
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 31
Lose: Invader deck ran out 34
Lose: Adversary condition 662
Win: Sacrifice victory 55
Lose: Scenario condition 108
Win: Scenario condition 276
Lose: Blight pool ran out 780
Lose: Spirit destroyed 65

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)