Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 240 21.25% 23.7 55.0% 0.614 0.5847 -0.042
Blitz 0 1032 37.89% 25.75 51.55% -0.381 -0.1375 -0.825
Dahan Insurrection 4 2275 40.19% 48.4 50.64% -0.338 -0.3247 0.663
Despicable Theft 2 272 28.31% 20.36 36.03% -0.581 0.1849 -0.589
Elemental Invocation 1 391 45.64% 20.18 32.23% 0.053 0.8057 -0.753
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3610 12.03% 49.04 62.77% -0.006 -0.6026 1.098
Powers Long Forgotten 1 708 43.06% 26.47 46.47% -0.832 -0.0844 -0.403
Rituals of Terror 3 1419 52.79% 74.89 56.24% 0.942 1.4207 1.155
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 391 60.87% 30.31 41.43% -0.36 0.3281 0.461
Second Wave 0 2374 52.68% 28.92 56.28% 0.087 0.0825 -0.451
Varied Terrains 2 246 36.18% 17.81 30.89% -0.339 0.4404 -0.092
Ward the Shores 2 703 46.09% 28.25 43.95% -0.573 0.2959 -0.723

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1325 31.8 46.34% 0.323 0.472 0.176
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1309 34.06 49.5% 0.343 0.2298 0.277
All Things Weaken 820 32.36 44.02% -1.602 -1.2273 -0.432
Attenuated Essence 185 29.28 47.03% -0.138 -0.0121 -0.128
Back Against the Wall 1340 32.25 47.61% 0.341 0.3821 0.426
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 193 32.16 49.74% 0.322 0.5283 0.596
Burn Brightest Before the End 162 30.69 45.68% -0.108 -0.0637 -0.241
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1268 30.17 46.45% -0.061 0.4367 0.641
Downward Spiral 2758 35.39 50.58% -0.271 -0.0211 0.237
Erosion of Will 1319 31.51 46.78% 1.041 1.2988 0.869
Intensifying Exploitation 181 33.64 51.38% 0.434 0.6526 0.918
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 335 43.73 69.25% 0.796 0.4104 -0.126
Memory Fades to Dust 2619 34.99 46.54% -0.504 -0.2989 -0.167
Power Corrodes the Spirit 822 34.02 49.15% 0.734 0.9321 -0.234
Promising Farmlands 1329 31.1 46.95% -0.807 -0.4512 1.198
Shattered Fragments of Power 160 29.48 40.0% -0.156 0.0617 1.722
Slow Dissolution of Will 183 29.31 40.44% -0.275 0.1548 0.375
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 214 49.79 81.78% 0.466 -0.1579 0.936
The Border of Life and Death 70 36.71 57.14% -0.047 -0.3668 0.707
Thriving Communities 839 33.23 45.89% 0.012 0.3317 -0.512
Thriving Crops 94 38.86 70.21% 0.214 0.0955 1.293
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12%
Unnatural Proliferation 855 35.12 45.15% -0.513 -0.4231 0.358
Untended Land Crumbles 808 33.39 47.15% 0.521 0.7462 1.396

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 39131 42.18% 34.51 57.35% 0.064 0.8472 -0.0
Northeast 21201 40.2% 34.74 58.74% -0.311 0.4508 0.275
Northwest 15565 42.63% 33.17 57.74% 0.334 1.1765 0.238
Southeast 6131 43.38% 27.4 53.56% 0.387 1.0262 -0.808
Southwest 5915 44.44% 24.36 50.04% -0.405 0.6406 -0.034
West 33269 43.83% 33.24 56.05% -0.083 0.6928 0.318

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 593 0.0% 20.94 36.76% -0.713 0.1603 -0.097
Not Using Events or Tokens 5438 41.26% 41.66 52.81% -0.48 -0.1031 0.215
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1146 17.31% 42.38 77.4% -0.782 -1.0731 -0.044
Start of Game Growth 1905 18.13% 38.53 76.48% 0.336 -0.2209 -0.236
Unlimited Undo 4430 30.35% 36.55 62.98% -0.234 -0.1701 0.48
Using Tokens but Not Events 5196 32.51% 40.76 67.98% -0.528 -0.655 1.08

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13324 12.44 6.21%
II 13609 29.94 58.62%
III 12642 34.9 83.37%
IV 7100 38.84 98.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 828
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9955
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6506
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6611
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7241
Lose: Invader deck ran out 312
Lose: Adversary condition 4502
Win: Sacrifice victory 418
Lose: Scenario condition 1277
Win: Scenario condition 2030
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6611
Lose: Spirit destroyed 384

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)