Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 194 22.16% 22.48 53.09% 0.041 0.1862 -0.481
Blitz 0 952 38.98% 26.85 53.78% -0.605 -0.3706 -0.194
Dahan Insurrection 4 2073 41.65% 49.51 51.04% 0.283 0.04 0.057
Despicable Theft 2 229 31.44% 21.78 38.86% -0.604 0.0367 -0.481
Elemental Invocation 1 333 47.59% 21.11 33.63% -1.406 -0.6579 -0.904
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3304 12.13% 49.58 64.41% -0.099 -0.6479 1.447
Powers Long Forgotten 1 654 45.4% 27.81 48.62% -0.673 0.0341 -0.139
Rituals of Terror 3 1287 54.21% 76.86 57.5% 0.427 0.5517 1.644
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 360 65.28% 31.83 43.61% -0.709 0.2169 0.098
Second Wave 0 2160 52.79% 29.79 58.61% 0.034 0.1735 0.525
Varied Terrains 2 205 37.56% 18.32 31.71% -0.228 0.5594 0.104
Ward the Shores 2 652 48.16% 29.12 44.94% -1.542 -0.4709 -0.394

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1249 31.98 46.12% -0.354 -0.1001 0.111
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1231 34.09 49.72% 1.672 1.5987 0.216
All Things Weaken 755 32.91 44.77% 0.604 0.9225 0.1
Attenuated Essence 136 30.35 50.0% 0.262 0.3128 0.376
Back Against the Wall 1276 32.23 47.18% 0.553 0.5808 -0.243
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 137 32.07 49.64% -0.425 -0.2125 0.596
Burn Brightest Before the End 105 31.9 42.86% 0.42 0.4407 0.333
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1199 30.42 46.79% 0.056 0.3987 0.044
Downward Spiral 2625 35.6 50.93% 0.488 0.6062 -0.284
Erosion of Will 1257 31.38 46.38% 0.38 0.6678 -0.359
Intensifying Exploitation 145 35.08 54.48% -0.603 -0.3771 0.303
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 304 44.88 69.74% 1.185 0.6168 0.941
Memory Fades to Dust 2484 35.29 47.1% 0.706 0.9488 -0.057
Power Corrodes the Spirit 747 34.2 49.13% 0.605 0.8035 0.216
Promising Farmlands 1272 31.17 46.93% 0.188 0.4612 0.13
Shattered Fragments of Power 114 29.19 42.11% 0.773 0.8606 -0.225
Slow Dissolution of Will 139 29.58 43.88% 0.754 1.1414 0.285
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 50.55 82.74% 0.831 0.1797 1.355
The Border of Life and Death 55 37.98 60.0% 1.283 0.684 1.317
Thriving Communities 762 33.95 46.33% 0.15 0.4646 -0.037
Thriving Crops 66 39.15 71.21% 0.176 0.0351 0.946
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.079
Unnatural Proliferation 799 35.13 45.56% 0.934 1.1305 0.09
Untended Land Crumbles 743 32.99 46.97% 0.327 0.5321 -0.351

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 35487 43.0% 35.47 58.91% 0.134 1.0347 -0.083
Northeast 19022 41.1% 35.84 60.61% -0.04 0.7479 0.373
Northwest 14203 43.51% 33.88 59.01% 0.265 1.1934 -0.014
Southeast 5452 44.15% 28.31 55.17% 0.313 1.1275 0.003
Southwest 5261 45.45% 25.03 51.26% -0.406 0.929 -0.466
West 30468 44.64% 33.96 57.25% -0.279 0.7011 0.175

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 470 0.0% 22.18 38.09% -0.734 -0.0035 -0.253
Not Using Events or Tokens 4981 42.6% 42.63 54.09% 0.114 0.4619 0.035
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1063 16.9% 43.58 80.24% 0.483 -0.0932 0.892
Start of Game Growth 1724 18.44% 40.17 79.64% 0.806 0.3037 -0.154
Unlimited Undo 4006 31.51% 37.87 65.18% -0.138 -0.2526 0.395
Using Tokens but Not Events 4781 32.19% 41.57 69.86% -0.065 -0.095 0.617

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11441 13.4 6.86%
II 12634 30.12 59.23%
III 11704 34.83 83.48%
IV 6596 38.67 98.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 785
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9217
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6088
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6136
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5539
Lose: Invader deck ran out 289
Lose: Adversary condition 4209
Win: Sacrifice victory 393
Lose: Scenario condition 1195
Win: Scenario condition 1920
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6237
Lose: Spirit destroyed 367

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-03 03:34:55 (Pacific Time)