Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 249 20.48% 23.81 54.62% -0.488 -0.1183 -0.181
Blitz 0 1061 37.51% 25.34 50.8% -0.411 0.0209 -0.719
Dahan Insurrection 4 2324 40.12% 48.02 50.22% 0.397 0.3712 0.363
Despicable Theft 2 279 27.96% 19.85 35.13% -1.23 -0.5702 -0.513
Elemental Invocation 1 406 45.93% 20.14 32.51% -0.374 0.074 -0.711
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3660 12.05% 48.86 62.51% 0.169 -0.4308 1.143
Powers Long Forgotten 1 714 42.98% 26.31 46.22% -0.447 0.1612 -0.339
Rituals of Terror 3 1456 52.62% 74.39 55.77% 0.817 0.9418 1.422
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 395 60.25% 30.01 41.01% -0.987 -0.2491 0.701
Second Wave 0 2421 52.61% 28.89 56.26% 0.016 0.1225 -0.321
Varied Terrains 2 256 35.55% 17.53 30.47% -0.691 0.0455 0.234
Ward the Shores 2 713 45.72% 28.15 44.04% 0.405 1.0877 -0.317

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1333 31.77 46.29% 0.175 0.4857 0.181
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1327 34.12 49.66% 0.713 0.7266 0.43
All Things Weaken 830 32.23 43.98% 0.202 0.676 -0.156
Attenuated Essence 203 30.27 47.29% 0.407 0.5539 0.031
Back Against the Wall 1358 32.24 47.64% 0.134 0.2634 0.664
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 205 31.86 50.24% 0.942 1.2623 0.916
Burn Brightest Before the End 168 30.83 46.43% 1.087 1.264 -0.29
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1286 30.12 46.58% 0.454 0.8344 0.396
Downward Spiral 2804 35.38 50.75% 0.829 1.0227 0.413
Erosion of Will 1331 31.49 46.81% -0.095 0.2427 0.476
Intensifying Exploitation 192 33.05 49.48% -0.289 0.0634 0.943
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 348 43.07 68.1% -0.236 -0.5996 0.115
Memory Fades to Dust 2655 34.88 46.63% 1.044 1.3734 -0.274
Power Corrodes the Spirit 842 33.73 48.46% -0.302 -0.0356 -0.413
Promising Farmlands 1345 30.93 46.69% -0.62 -0.1726 0.822
Shattered Fragments of Power 175 29.81 40.57% 0.075 0.0746 0.744
Slow Dissolution of Will 195 29.93 41.54% 0.457 0.8683 0.855
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 219 50.58 82.19% 0.975 0.4164 1.606
The Border of Life and Death 76 35.61 57.89% 0.518 0.2724 0.234
Thriving Communities 864 33.17 45.72% 0.104 0.3815 -0.293
Thriving Crops 104 38.26 66.35% -0.561 -0.6567 0.699
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12%
Unnatural Proliferation 872 35.04 44.84% 0.189 0.3932 0.669
Untended Land Crumbles 831 33.6 47.41% 1.051 1.3501 1.652

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 40017 42.04% 34.31 57.06% -0.014 0.7317 0.155
Northeast 21733 40.05% 34.5 58.37% -0.316 0.5771 0.192
Northwest 15986 42.45% 32.96 57.44% 0.509 1.2518 0.308
Southeast 6328 43.13% 27.25 53.38% 0.495 1.5037 -0.547
Southwest 6092 44.19% 24.2 49.77% -0.502 0.655 -0.214
West 34024 43.69% 33.04 55.78% -0.186 0.7967 0.096

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 601 0.0% 20.79 36.61% -0.223 0.4971 -0.002
Not Using Events or Tokens 5544 41.31% 41.39 52.51% -0.234 0.2405 0.459
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1160 17.19% 42.5 77.33% 0.679 -0.1257 0.69
Start of Game Growth 1939 18.23% 38.59 76.43% 0.902 0.3356 0.702
Unlimited Undo 4509 30.14% 36.34 62.87% 0.218 0.2451 0.422
Using Tokens but Not Events 5304 32.42% 40.58 67.67% 0.406 0.3784 1.169

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13789 12.25 6.07%
II 13838 29.91 58.5%
III 12871 34.94 83.47%
IV 7235 38.9 98.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 837
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10154
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6607
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6734
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7686
Lose: Invader deck ran out 314
Lose: Adversary condition 4573
Win: Sacrifice victory 431
Lose: Scenario condition 1285
Win: Scenario condition 2050
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6676
Lose: Spirit destroyed 386

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)