Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 25 32.0% 38.44 92.0% 1.278 1.6691
Blitz 0 585 45.5% 33.89 67.86% -0.081 0.3058 -0.284
Dahan Insurrection 4 1635 45.79% 53.7 55.23% -1.089 -0.837 -0.084
Despicable Theft 2 68 51.47% 42.54 72.06% 0.173 0.6909 0.878
Elemental Invocation 1 135 68.66% 31.9 47.41% -0.435 0.232 -1.436
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2293 12.24% 53.51 70.39% 0.525 0.775 1.242
Powers Long Forgotten 1 376 57.6% 36.33 62.77% 0.884 1.2944 -0.729
Rituals of Terror 3 676 62.46% 82.27 65.68% 1.082 0.7181 1.473
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 234 80.77% 39.72 53.42% 0.404 0.4754 -0.074
Second Wave 0 1342 54.85% 32.57 67.44% 0.39 1.0585 0.293
Varied Terrains 2 22 77.27% 35.14 63.64% 0.014 0.7354 0.387
Ward the Shores 2 426 57.28% 35.45 52.82% 0.005 0.8786 -0.206

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 972 33.11 45.99% -0.798 1.189 -0.273
Aid From Lesser Spirits 999 34.05 49.35% -0.001 1.7832 -0.392
All Things Weaken 477 33.64 46.12% -1.217 0.7974 -0.497
Back Against the Wall 1046 32.09 45.89% -1.514 0.4148 -0.761
Disintegrating Ecosystem 924 31.26 48.59% -1.749 0.3765 -0.623
Downward Spiral 2092 36.78 52.87% -0.4 1.5951 -0.797
Erosion of Will 947 31.94 47.2% -0.737 1.329 -0.789
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 183 48.31 75.41% -0.008 0.5175 0.194
Memory Fades to Dust 1961 36.42 47.37% -0.971 1.1866 -0.612
Power Corrodes the Spirit 462 35.59 50.0% -1.158 0.8176 -0.302
Promising Farmlands 1016 32.49 49.41% -0.241 1.8382 -0.287
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 116 48.1 81.03% 0.223 0.7328 0.385
Thriving Communities 480 35.94 47.71% -0.461 1.5927 -0.401
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.366
Unnatural Proliferation 514 35.99 46.5% -1.455 0.5059 -0.462
Untended Land Crumbles 472 34.54 49.79% -0.96 1.0709 -0.936

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 23206 47.14% 40.03 66.44% -0.14 0.5126 0.04
Northeast 12278 45.99% 40.71 68.07% 0.145 0.7479 0.188
Northwest 9279 48.59% 38.68 65.83% -0.037 0.5877 0.093
Southeast 2928 51.69% 34.14 66.73% 0.145 0.6927 -0.126
Southwest 2693 53.46% 31.42 65.8% 0.185 1.1287 -0.139
West 19964 48.71% 38.66 65.03% -0.282 0.5174 -0.068

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 240 0.0% 29.04 55.42% -0.871 1.3781 0.166
Not Using Events or Tokens 3537 46.91% 48.68 61.07% 0.206 0.4037 0.155
Skip Initial Invader Actions 851 17.19% 44.35 84.37% 0.72 -0.1033 0.115
Start of Game Growth 1246 20.03% 42.57 85.63% -0.201 -0.6964 -0.284
Unlimited Undo 2551 33.36% 44.36 77.54% -0.208 -0.8093 0.468
Using Tokens but Not Events 3097 32.85% 46.05 80.98% 0.013 0.153 0.743

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5202 22.64 12.38%
II 9472 31.07 63.21%
III 8439 34.65 84.52%
IV 4485 37.9 98.24%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 644
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6662
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4736
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4230
Lose: Invader deck ran out 199
Lose: Adversary condition 3142
Win: Sacrifice victory 201
Lose: Scenario condition 977
Win: Scenario condition 1697
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4818
Lose: Spirit destroyed 292

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-15 03:07:34 (Pacific Time)