Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 55 21.82% 30.15 70.91% 0.127 -0.157 -0.099
Blitz 0 635 44.27% 32.71 65.04% -0.549 -0.3891 -0.249
Dahan Insurrection 4 1727 44.74% 52.82 54.02% -0.028 -0.408 -0.062
Despicable Theft 2 93 44.09% 35.83 61.29% -0.866 -0.0987 0.011
Elemental Invocation 1 167 62.05% 28.33 41.92% -1.214 -0.4888 -1.439
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2483 12.03% 53.39 69.67% 0.712 0.0801 1.373
Powers Long Forgotten 1 429 54.21% 34.25 59.91% -0.362 0.2454 -0.739
Rituals of Terror 3 816 61.06% 82.32 63.36% 0.481 0.6409 1.429
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 250 78.8% 38.73 52.4% 0.109 1.1718 -0.135
Second Wave 0 1491 53.66% 32.32 66.33% 0.34 0.4174 0.312
Varied Terrains 2 52 59.62% 25.65 46.15% -0.641 -0.0166 -0.15
Ward the Shores 2 458 55.24% 34.22 51.53% -0.241 0.8019 -0.244

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1025 32.89 45.95% 0.439 0.6689 -0.082
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1035 34.15 49.47% 0.219 0.1452 -0.307
All Things Weaken 526 34.27 45.63% -0.043 0.3251 -0.304
Attenuated Essence 14 27.86 50.0% 0.689 0.7794 -0.273
Back Against the Wall 1092 32.3 46.06% 0.738 0.7897 -0.616
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 22.59 41.18% 0.383 0.5999 -0.249
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 35.17 50.0% 0.485 0.6539 0.375
Disintegrating Ecosystem 979 31.16 48.01% 0.171 0.5752 -0.351
Downward Spiral 2177 36.86 52.5% 0.525 0.7654 -0.629
Erosion of Will 1000 31.83 46.4% 0.315 0.6188 -0.713
Intensifying Exploitation 15 44.27 40.0% 0.137 0.4156 0.521
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 47.56 73.81% 1.078 0.5894 0.487
Memory Fades to Dust 2041 36.28 47.08% 0.173 0.5125 -0.48
Power Corrodes the Spirit 513 36.23 49.51% 0.67 0.8936 -0.05
Promising Farmlands 1055 32.5 48.91% 0.542 1.0008 -0.172
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 36.0 57.89% 0.509 0.5427 -0.812
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 24.87 20.0% -0.343 0.0523 0.24
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 137 52.27 82.48% 1.788 1.0977 0.865
The Border of Life and Death 3 51.67 33.33% -0.088 -0.4216 0.273
Thriving Communities 542 34.79 46.13% -0.008 0.3355 -0.337
Thriving Crops 8 36.63 75.0% 0.982 0.7949 0.7
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.287
Unnatural Proliferation 577 36.1 45.93% 0.224 0.4017 -0.386
Untended Land Crumbles 523 34.25 47.8% -0.193 0.0674 -0.889

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 25056 46.22% 39.43 65.03% -0.035 0.5475 -0.088
Northeast 13207 45.04% 39.9 66.56% 0.166 0.8512 0.338
Northwest 10010 47.56% 37.82 64.24% -0.325 0.5052 -0.046
Southeast 3347 49.54% 33.26 64.51% 0.105 0.8541 0.056
Southwest 3237 51.44% 29.98 61.48% 0.004 0.9984 -0.397
West 21740 47.82% 37.94 63.3% 0.071 1.0215 0.126

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -0.957 -0.1719 0.233
Not Using Events or Tokens 3752 45.78% 48.2 60.26% -0.008 0.3491 0.103
Skip Initial Invader Actions 890 17.1% 45.12 84.38% 0.664 0.0268 0.349
Start of Game Growth 1319 19.92% 42.83 85.14% 0.884 0.5878 -0.168
Unlimited Undo 2779 33.05% 43.17 75.21% -0.068 -0.0867 0.357
Using Tokens but Not Events 3365 33.16% 46.09 78.51% -0.085 -0.1312 0.73

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6166 20.49 10.91%
II 10031 31.02 62.52%
III 8993 34.76 84.21%
IV 4813 38.06 98.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 673
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7088
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4992
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4503
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 750
Lose: Invader deck ran out 223
Lose: Adversary condition 3358
Win: Sacrifice victory 254
Lose: Scenario condition 1028
Win: Scenario condition 1738
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5082
Lose: Spirit destroyed 314

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-10 03:37:45 (Pacific Time)