Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 31.25% 35.25 87.5% 0.615 0.7079
Blitz 0 568 45.45% 33.82 67.78% -0.769 -0.5258 -0.395
Dahan Insurrection 4 1613 45.86% 53.67 55.55% -0.498 -0.2142 -0.109
Despicable Theft 2 60 50.0% 41.37 71.67% 0.521 0.7363 0.594
Elemental Invocation 1 124 68.29% 31.69 48.39% 0.081 0.685 -1.585
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2249 12.3% 53.35 70.3% 0.505 0.6784 1.193
Powers Long Forgotten 1 369 57.34% 36.14 62.06% 0.074 0.3675 -0.74
Rituals of Terror 3 640 62.23% 80.72 65.0% 0.871 0.8441 1.36
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 228 80.26% 39.25 52.63% 0.137 0.7143 -0.394
Second Wave 0 1321 54.89% 32.45 67.22% -0.703 -0.2403 0.205
Varied Terrains 2 18 77.78% 36.06 66.67% 0.28 0.8321 0.35
Ward the Shores 2 414 56.28% 35.32 52.66% -0.405 0.7862 -0.131

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 935 33.02 45.99% -1.136 0.6927 -0.265
Aid From Lesser Spirits 976 33.86 48.98% -0.918 0.7251 -0.435
All Things Weaken 455 33.45 46.37% -1.241 0.7367 -0.471
Back Against the Wall 1024 32.17 46.29% -1.177 0.6745 -0.716
Disintegrating Ecosystem 896 31.41 49.22% -1.411 0.5678 -0.619
Downward Spiral 2058 36.75 52.72% -0.971 0.9287 -0.842
Erosion of Will 920 31.78 47.17% -1.685 0.3953 -0.891
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 169 47.6 75.74% 0.441 0.9799 0.191
Memory Fades to Dust 1926 36.44 47.35% -1.612 0.3679 -0.628
Power Corrodes the Spirit 435 34.69 50.57% -1.038 0.8528 -0.299
Promising Farmlands 989 32.21 49.14% -0.766 1.2431 -0.389
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 109 48.08 80.73% -0.1 0.3446 0.354
Thriving Communities 462 35.69 47.62% -0.969 1.0026 -0.403
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.368
Unnatural Proliferation 492 36.2 47.15% -0.912 0.9804 -0.445
Untended Land Crumbles 450 34.24 50.0% -0.798 1.2249 -0.915

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 22608 47.1% 39.98 66.57% 0.199 0.8596 0.076
Northeast 12010 45.95% 40.69 68.08% 0.101 0.8037 0.194
Northwest 9063 48.47% 38.63 65.86% -0.334 0.7252 0.081
Southeast 2796 51.9% 34.06 66.52% -0.029 0.7151 -0.151
Southwest 2563 53.62% 31.31 65.51% 0.142 1.1514 -0.163
West 19420 48.62% 38.6 65.18% -0.065 1.0032 -0.049

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 231 0.0% 29.4 55.41% -0.451 1.5661 0.176
Not Using Events or Tokens 3477 47.19% 48.59 60.8% 0.659 0.8772 0.173
Skip Initial Invader Actions 839 16.94% 44.3 84.39% -0.332 -0.4436 -0.082
Start of Game Growth 1219 19.47% 42.59 86.22% -0.655 -1.3559 -0.123
Unlimited Undo 2487 32.86% 44.6 78.05% 0.669 -0.0247 0.392
Using Tokens but Not Events 3049 32.38% 45.8 81.24% 0.198 0.1404 0.793

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5055 22.6 12.52%
II 9256 31.02 63.45%
III 8224 34.58 84.55%
IV 4340 37.82 98.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 633
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6490
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4628
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4104
Lose: Invader deck ran out 196
Lose: Adversary condition 3026
Win: Sacrifice victory 184
Lose: Scenario condition 964
Win: Scenario condition 1683
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4685
Lose: Spirit destroyed 282

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)