Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 30.77% 34.38 84.62% 0.31 0.1085
Blitz 0 562 45.41% 33.92 68.15% -0.095 0.162 -0.394
Dahan Insurrection 4 1601 45.77% 53.64 55.59% -1.038 -0.6249 -0.121
Despicable Theft 2 57 50.88% 41.18 70.18% 0.652 1.0976 0.596
Elemental Invocation 1 121 67.5% 31.93 49.59% -0.192 0.2933 -1.572
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2227 12.33% 53.3 70.23% -0.237 0.0683 1.188
Powers Long Forgotten 1 366 57.53% 36.01 61.75% -0.219 -0.0367 -0.73
Rituals of Terror 3 600 62.21% 79.67 65.83% 0.974 1.0953 1.39
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 223 80.27% 39.09 52.47% 0.112 0.527 -0.533
Second Wave 0 1308 54.9% 32.42 67.13% -0.899 -0.3334 0.205
Varied Terrains 2 17 76.47% 37.29 70.59% 0.554 1.08 0.352
Ward the Shores 2 411 56.45% 35.32 52.55% -1.091 0.071 -0.127

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 918 32.92 45.97% -0.785 1.1183 -0.295
Aid From Lesser Spirits 963 33.77 48.7% -1.121 0.6092 -0.455
All Things Weaken 446 32.95 46.19% -1.264 0.7212 -0.548
Back Against the Wall 1009 32.2 46.38% -1.159 0.6574 -0.728
Disintegrating Ecosystem 886 31.51 49.44% -1.235 0.8149 -0.575
Downward Spiral 2038 36.66 52.94% -0.861 1.1323 -0.824
Erosion of Will 912 31.75 47.15% -1.749 0.3338 -0.862
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 163 46.45 74.85% 0.485 0.9262 0.119
Memory Fades to Dust 1909 36.48 47.46% -0.89 1.1946 -0.605
Power Corrodes the Spirit 425 34.65 51.06% -0.998 0.94 -0.217
Promising Farmlands 979 32.08 49.03% -0.695 1.3511 -0.378
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 108 47.99 81.48% 0.532 0.9567 0.481
Thriving Communities 451 35.44 47.23% -0.995 0.9884 -0.468
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.334
Unnatural Proliferation 479 35.51 46.76% -1.559 0.4057 -0.434
Untended Land Crumbles 436 34.24 50.23% -1.059 0.9346 -0.798

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 22313 47.07% 39.89 66.58% -0.015 0.7536 0.035
Northeast 11860 45.99% 40.64 68.06% -0.152 0.7076 0.194
Northwest 8958 48.47% 38.62 65.94% 0.019 1.0954 0.069
Southeast 2733 51.85% 34.07 66.59% 0.277 0.9835 -0.166
Southwest 2506 53.4% 31.38 65.6% 0.005 1.1299 -0.109
West 19176 48.53% 38.54 65.24% -0.117 0.8373 -0.033

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 228 0.0% 29.45 55.7% -0.111 2.018 0.192
Not Using Events or Tokens 3445 47.42% 48.55 60.67% 1.132 1.3068 0.177
Skip Initial Invader Actions 832 16.71% 44.25 84.62% 0.054 -0.0887 -0.138
Start of Game Growth 1209 19.29% 42.61 86.6% 0.277 -0.4832 -0.131
Unlimited Undo 2446 32.73% 44.78 78.09% 0.548 -0.0564 0.311
Using Tokens but Not Events 3018 31.98% 45.49 81.71% 0.272 0.1154 0.957

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5008 22.56 12.5%
II 9143 30.98 63.63%
III 8109 34.53 84.61%
IV 4275 37.77 98.2%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 626
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6399
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4580
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4052
Lose: Invader deck ran out 192
Lose: Adversary condition 2987
Win: Sacrifice victory 171
Lose: Scenario condition 959
Win: Scenario condition 1675
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4619
Lose: Spirit destroyed 275

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)