Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 55 21.82% 30.15 70.91% 0.106 -0.1495 -0.099
Blitz 0 638 44.37% 32.7 65.2% -0.341 -0.1442 -0.248
Dahan Insurrection 4 1730 44.66% 52.78 53.99% 0.044 -0.3987 -0.065
Despicable Theft 2 94 43.62% 35.45 60.64% -0.876 -0.0636 -0.016
Elemental Invocation 1 167 62.05% 28.33 41.92% -1.211 -0.5086 -1.44
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2486 12.01% 53.43 69.71% 0.807 0.1627 1.376
Powers Long Forgotten 1 431 53.95% 34.09 59.63% -0.497 0.1386 -0.741
Rituals of Terror 3 822 60.85% 82.04 63.14% 0.408 0.509 1.43
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 250 78.8% 38.73 52.4% 0.123 1.1322 -0.133
Second Wave 0 1498 53.54% 32.34 66.36% 0.354 0.4199 0.311
Varied Terrains 2 55 56.36% 24.93 45.45% -0.865 -0.2421 -0.144
Ward the Shores 2 459 55.34% 34.25 51.63% -0.212 0.8722 -0.24

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1026 32.88 45.91% 0.469 0.7119 -0.077
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1035 34.15 49.47% 0.054 -0.0232 -0.304
All Things Weaken 528 34.55 45.64% -0.106 0.287 -0.311
Attenuated Essence 15 29.87 53.33% 0.747 0.8542 -0.273
Back Against the Wall 1094 32.3 46.16% 0.949 1.0068 -0.615
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 22.59 41.18% 0.357 0.5583 -0.248
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 35.17 50.0% 0.283 0.493 0.378
Disintegrating Ecosystem 979 31.16 48.01% 0.063 0.4872 -0.348
Downward Spiral 2179 36.84 52.5% 0.377 0.6121 -0.626
Erosion of Will 1001 31.85 46.45% 0.385 0.6939 -0.708
Intensifying Exploitation 15 44.27 40.0% 0.107 0.3942 0.533
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 47.56 73.81% 1.094 0.5997 0.496
Memory Fades to Dust 2044 36.27 47.06% 0.164 0.5004 -0.477
Power Corrodes the Spirit 515 36.23 49.51% 0.789 1.0093 -0.044
Promising Farmlands 1056 32.48 48.86% 0.427 0.8807 -0.168
Shattered Fragments of Power 20 35.3 55.0% 0.267 0.3181 -0.807
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 24.87 20.0% -0.33 0.0688 0.238
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 137 52.27 82.48% 1.765 1.0538 0.875
The Border of Life and Death 4 51.0 50.0% 0.444 0.1091 0.275
Thriving Communities 544 34.81 46.32% 0.126 0.4891 -0.332
Thriving Crops 9 40.89 77.78% 1.065 0.8672 1.024
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.284
Unnatural Proliferation 578 36.1 46.02% 0.002 0.217 -0.379
Untended Land Crumbles 525 34.21 48.0% -0.058 0.2234 -0.881

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 25112 46.2% 39.41 65.01% -0.044 0.4951 -0.083
Northeast 13232 45.04% 39.9 66.54% 0.149 0.7837 0.332
Northwest 10030 47.54% 37.8 64.2% -0.306 0.5036 -0.041
Southeast 3359 49.39% 33.21 64.45% 0.098 0.8043 0.05
Southwest 3246 51.36% 29.95 61.46% -0.014 0.9758 -0.392
West 21788 47.79% 37.91 63.27% 0.101 1.0048 0.123

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -0.881 -0.1052 0.232
Not Using Events or Tokens 3759 45.75% 48.19 60.26% -0.008 0.3716 0.106
Skip Initial Invader Actions 890 17.1% 45.12 84.38% 0.816 0.1981 0.35
Start of Game Growth 1320 19.9% 42.83 85.15% 0.829 0.48 -0.172
Unlimited Undo 2787 33.02% 43.13 75.24% -0.117 -0.1239 0.364
Using Tokens but Not Events 3373 33.14% 46.08 78.45% 0.096 0.0861 0.724

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6194 20.4 10.91%
II 10043 31.01 62.52%
III 9007 34.76 84.2%
IV 4829 38.07 98.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 676
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7098
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5000
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4517
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 772
Lose: Invader deck ran out 223
Lose: Adversary condition 3364
Win: Sacrifice victory 255
Lose: Scenario condition 1028
Win: Scenario condition 1740
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5085
Lose: Spirit destroyed 315

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)