Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 55 21.82% 30.15 70.91% 0.102 -0.1753 -0.099
Blitz 0 636 44.2% 32.73 65.09% -0.609 -0.4318 -0.249
Dahan Insurrection 4 1730 44.66% 52.78 53.99% 0.014 -0.3798 -0.065
Despicable Theft 2 94 43.62% 35.45 60.64% -0.895 -0.0991 -0.017
Elemental Invocation 1 167 62.05% 28.33 41.92% -1.224 -0.5056 -1.439
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2484 12.02% 53.41 69.69% 0.722 0.0819 1.373
Powers Long Forgotten 1 429 54.21% 34.25 59.91% -0.41 0.2273 -0.739
Rituals of Terror 3 817 60.98% 82.22 63.28% 0.43 0.5814 1.431
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 250 78.8% 38.73 52.4% 0.145 1.2242 -0.134
Second Wave 0 1496 53.55% 32.34 66.38% 0.338 0.4052 0.311
Varied Terrains 2 53 58.49% 25.17 45.28% -0.706 -0.0725 -0.146
Ward the Shores 2 458 55.24% 34.22 51.53% -0.353 0.7368 -0.241

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1025 32.89 45.95% 0.488 0.7185 -0.079
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1035 34.15 49.47% 0.087 0.0283 -0.305
All Things Weaken 526 34.27 45.63% 0.038 0.416 -0.303
Attenuated Essence 15 29.87 53.33% 0.757 0.837 -0.272
Back Against the Wall 1092 32.3 46.06% 0.855 0.9039 -0.616
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 22.59 41.18% 0.347 0.5437 -0.248
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 35.17 50.0% 0.269 0.4621 0.378
Disintegrating Ecosystem 979 31.16 48.01% 0.045 0.4579 -0.35
Downward Spiral 2179 36.84 52.5% 0.404 0.6475 -0.629
Erosion of Will 1001 31.85 46.45% 0.388 0.6963 -0.71
Intensifying Exploitation 15 44.27 40.0% 0.16 0.4391 0.521
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 210 47.56 73.81% 1.072 0.5652 0.49
Memory Fades to Dust 2042 36.29 47.11% 0.276 0.6187 -0.479
Power Corrodes the Spirit 514 36.26 49.61% 0.819 1.055 -0.049
Promising Farmlands 1055 32.5 48.91% 0.577 1.0302 -0.17
Shattered Fragments of Power 19 36.0 57.89% 0.42 0.4722 -0.808
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 24.87 20.0% -0.426 -0.0353 0.239
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 137 52.27 82.48% 1.772 1.0614 0.87
The Border of Life and Death 4 51.0 50.0% 0.47 0.0937 0.272
Thriving Communities 544 34.81 46.32% 0.185 0.5322 -0.337
Thriving Crops 9 40.89 77.78% 1.054 0.8527 1.023
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.285
Unnatural Proliferation 577 36.1 45.93% 0.073 0.2681 -0.384
Untended Land Crumbles 523 34.25 47.8% -0.265 0.0018 -0.888

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 25087 46.2% 39.42 65.03% -0.063 0.5004 -0.083
Northeast 13220 45.02% 39.9 66.57% 0.156 0.8219 0.335
Northwest 10021 47.52% 37.81 64.23% -0.286 0.528 -0.042
Southeast 3356 49.43% 33.22 64.48% 0.141 0.8646 0.052
Southwest 3244 51.39% 29.96 61.5% -0.017 0.9861 -0.392
West 21767 47.79% 37.92 63.29% 0.054 0.9757 0.119

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -1.034 -0.2632 0.232
Not Using Events or Tokens 3756 45.76% 48.18 60.25% 0.033 0.408 0.105
Skip Initial Invader Actions 890 17.1% 45.12 84.38% 0.791 0.1527 0.351
Start of Game Growth 1320 19.9% 42.83 85.15% 0.869 0.5581 -0.17
Unlimited Undo 2786 33.0% 43.13 75.23% -0.103 -0.1259 0.358
Using Tokens but Not Events 3368 33.13% 46.08 78.5% 0.034 0.0276 0.731

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6184 20.44 10.92%
II 10035 31.01 62.53%
III 9001 34.76 84.22%
IV 4823 38.06 98.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 675
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7096
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4996
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4512
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 763
Lose: Invader deck ran out 223
Lose: Adversary condition 3361
Win: Sacrifice victory 254
Lose: Scenario condition 1028
Win: Scenario condition 1739
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5082
Lose: Spirit destroyed 314

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)