Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 190 22.63% 22.74 53.68% 0.134 0.2323 -0.481
Blitz 0 937 39.18% 27.17 54.54% -0.603 -0.3576 -0.192
Dahan Insurrection 4 2065 41.82% 49.55 51.04% 0.035 -0.1976 0.052
Despicable Theft 2 223 31.84% 21.83 38.57% -0.78 -0.1368 -0.483
Elemental Invocation 1 327 47.85% 21.34 33.94% -1.05 -0.366 -0.906
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3276 12.11% 49.64 64.53% 0.185 -0.3998 1.461
Powers Long Forgotten 1 645 46.03% 28.06 48.99% -0.896 0.0005 -0.135
Rituals of Terror 3 1275 54.56% 77.33 57.73% 0.82 0.8925 1.649
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 353 66.01% 32.2 43.91% -0.875 -0.0031 0.109
Second Wave 0 2142 52.91% 29.8 58.68% -0.361 -0.2004 0.569
Varied Terrains 2 200 37.0% 18.3 32.0% -0.349 0.367 0.129
Ward the Shores 2 645 48.37% 29.18 44.96% -1.641 -0.489 -0.371

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1244 32.02 46.22% -0.059 0.1487 0.113
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1225 34.04 49.47% 0.977 0.9424 0.22
All Things Weaken 751 32.95 44.74% 0.254 0.5382 0.098
Attenuated Essence 132 30.51 50.0% 0.704 0.7205 0.37
Back Against the Wall 1272 32.21 47.17% 0.424 0.4743 -0.244
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 132 32.94 50.76% -0.459 -0.2972 0.635
Burn Brightest Before the End 103 31.64 42.72% -0.038 0.0217 0.17
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1192 30.46 46.81% 0.321 0.5941 0.016
Downward Spiral 2620 35.62 50.95% 0.3 0.4042 -0.277
Erosion of Will 1254 31.38 46.33% 0.443 0.687 -0.356
Intensifying Exploitation 140 35.01 53.57% -0.102 0.1299 0.302
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 301 44.89 69.77% 1.104 0.4669 0.973
Memory Fades to Dust 2475 35.3 47.07% 0.77 1.014 -0.051
Power Corrodes the Spirit 738 34.33 49.32% 0.635 0.8328 0.217
Promising Farmlands 1264 31.21 46.91% 0.313 0.5519 0.142
Shattered Fragments of Power 108 29.01 41.67% 0.46 0.5517 -0.454
Slow Dissolution of Will 132 29.74 43.94% 1.378 1.731 0.372
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 50.55 82.74% 1.446 0.7513 1.356
The Border of Life and Death 51 36.22 58.82% 1.07 0.5138 1.197
Thriving Communities 756 33.92 46.16% -0.151 0.0795 -0.039
Thriving Crops 66 39.15 71.21% 0.327 0.0893 0.941
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.076
Unnatural Proliferation 792 35.14 45.45% 0.252 0.4464 0.071
Untended Land Crumbles 740 33.04 47.03% 0.145 0.3805 -0.358

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 35174 43.09% 35.55 59.01% 0.168 0.9396 -0.078
Northeast 18837 41.17% 35.94 60.73% 0.041 0.7577 0.37
Northwest 14075 43.62% 33.95 59.11% 0.243 1.072 -0.011
Southeast 5391 44.31% 28.42 55.24% 0.171 0.9907 -0.001
Southwest 5194 45.68% 25.16 51.44% -0.417 0.8196 -0.461
West 30206 44.76% 34.05 57.36% -0.219 0.7401 0.169

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 468 0.0% 22.27 38.25% -0.621 0.0968 -0.282
Not Using Events or Tokens 4960 42.68% 42.62 54.05% 0.156 0.5277 0.04
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1057 16.89% 43.67 80.42% 0.737 0.0932 0.93
Start of Game Growth 1704 18.59% 40.38 80.11% 1.021 0.489 -0.126
Unlimited Undo 3974 31.63% 38.07 65.5% 0.2 0.1127 0.401
Using Tokens but Not Events 4756 32.19% 41.69 70.04% -0.159 -0.1711 0.626

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11276 13.52 6.94%
II 12545 30.15 59.21%
III 11628 34.83 83.43%
IV 6554 38.66 98.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 782
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9149
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6040
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6095
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5389
Lose: Invader deck ran out 289
Lose: Adversary condition 4189
Win: Sacrifice victory 390
Lose: Scenario condition 1190
Win: Scenario condition 1913
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6210
Lose: Spirit destroyed 367

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-27 03:24:57 (Pacific Time)