Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 22.0% 30.0 70.0% -0.482 -0.5435 -0.093
Blitz 0 620 45.02% 33.29 66.13% -0.242 -0.1022 -0.251
Dahan Insurrection 4 1713 44.82% 52.95 54.12% -0.358 -0.5316 -0.06
Despicable Theft 2 87 43.68% 37.98 65.52% -0.261 0.406 0.08
Elemental Invocation 1 159 63.29% 29.09 42.77% -1.368 -0.6374 -1.449
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2439 12.08% 53.44 69.74% 0.511 -0.122 1.321
Powers Long Forgotten 1 410 55.26% 35.02 60.98% -0.463 0.0073 -0.754
Rituals of Terror 3 788 61.07% 82.64 63.83% 0.656 0.6677 1.482
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 244 79.92% 39.12 52.46% -0.113 0.8355 -0.12
Second Wave 0 1440 53.89% 32.47 66.67% 0.199 0.2757 0.295
Varied Terrains 2 39 64.1% 31.46 56.41% 0.275 0.8436 -0.109
Ward the Shores 2 452 55.75% 34.48 51.77% -0.517 0.7184 -0.269

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1015 32.98 45.91% 0.243 0.5159 -0.112
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1026 34.19 49.51% 0.636 0.7004 -0.333
All Things Weaken 516 34.04 45.74% 0.213 0.6824 -0.353
Attenuated Essence 8 28.38 62.5% 0.656 0.9156 -0.144
Back Against the Wall 1085 32.26 45.9% 0.24 0.4223 -0.65
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 24.58 50.0% 0.264 0.7279 -0.251
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 31.67 66.67% 0.25 0.5735
Disintegrating Ecosystem 972 31.18 47.94% -0.188 0.3565 -0.378
Downward Spiral 2158 36.89 52.69% 0.46 0.8173 -0.659
Erosion of Will 995 31.85 46.43% -0.125 0.3283 -0.722
Intensifying Exploitation 10 58.7 50.0% 0.378 0.7863 0.602
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 204 48.22 75.0% 0.988 0.4763 0.463
Memory Fades to Dust 2024 36.3 47.08% -0.106 0.3941 -0.517
Power Corrodes the Spirit 504 35.78 49.21% 0.242 0.5516 -0.136
Promising Farmlands 1049 32.46 48.9% 0.555 1.141 -0.226
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 41.11 66.67% 0.809 1.0116 -0.71
Slow Dissolution of Will 12 29.92 25.0% -0.386 0.1753 0.193
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 128 50.27 82.03% 1.425 0.7029 0.626
The Border of Life and Death 2 77.5 50.0% 0.203 0.0944 0.268
Thriving Communities 532 34.9 45.86% -0.327 0.1798 -0.373
Thriving Crops 5 44.8 100.0% 1.316 1.4336 0.696
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.308
Unnatural Proliferation 565 35.91 45.66% -0.207 0.1115 -0.383
Untended Land Crumbles 517 34.4 48.16% 0.261 0.6411 -0.899

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 24566 46.56% 39.68 65.42% 0.101 0.7229 -0.104
Northeast 12934 45.48% 40.22 67.03% -0.111 0.7983 0.343
Northwest 9778 48.03% 38.22 64.84% -0.085 0.5879 -0.058
Southeast 3228 50.12% 33.58 65.12% 0.158 0.8543 0.058
Southwest 3134 51.98% 30.29 61.97% -0.111 1.0898 -0.379
West 21309 48.14% 38.21 63.71% 0.034 1.0169 0.129

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -0.731 0.1749 0.195
Not Using Events or Tokens 3707 45.99% 48.36 60.43% -0.133 0.1831 0.129
Skip Initial Invader Actions 880 17.19% 44.83 84.32% 0.298 -0.263 0.28
Start of Game Growth 1302 20.03% 42.74 85.25% 1.345 1.0334 -0.14
Unlimited Undo 2715 33.13% 43.46 75.87% -0.213 -0.2394 0.398
Using Tokens but Not Events 3301 33.07% 46.05 79.04% 0.034 -0.0313 0.71

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5907 21.09 11.26%
II 9925 31.04 62.65%
III 8858 34.73 84.26%
IV 4730 38.01 98.27%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 665
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6983
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4943
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4429
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 505
Lose: Invader deck ran out 221
Lose: Adversary condition 3332
Win: Sacrifice victory 245
Lose: Scenario condition 1019
Win: Scenario condition 1730
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5038
Lose: Spirit destroyed 310

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)