Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 195 44.62% 35.08 0.13 79.49% -0.1 0.1892
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 200 54.77% 35.48 1.028 71.5% -0.361 0.0528
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 192 72.92% 36.24 1.358 54.69% -1.109 -0.2263
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 153 75.5% 33.44 0.017 39.22% -1.742 -0.4998
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 76 80.26% 36.91 2.51 38.16% -1.591 -0.0941
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 26 73.08% 31.08 -2.286 7.69% -3.19 -1.2509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 86 81.4% 36.51 1.234 16.28% -2.871 -0.8281
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 863 37.53% 34.18 -1.433 84.36% 0.144 0.1848
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 798 45.21% 37.38 0.512 82.46% 0.13 0.1115
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1044 46.16% 44.45 4.035 79.02% -0.136 -0.1225
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 766 59.22% 48.17 6.248 72.32% -0.351 -0.0679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 470 56.84% 50.91 7.44 72.34% -0.46 -0.1003
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 248 70.04% 52.86 8.178 58.06% -0.915 -0.0899
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 821 80.66% 52.21 6.494 39.1% -1.651 -0.4119
The Kingdom of England 0 1 750 37.75% 33.19 -2.054 76.4% -0.442 -0.1122
The Kingdom of England 1 3 716 44.73% 39.43 1.507 73.74% -0.449 0.0682
The Kingdom of England 2 4 766 57.87% 34.99 -0.452 54.44% -1.358 -0.385
The Kingdom of England 3 6 501 65.73% 36.61 0.559 39.52% -1.883 -0.3033
The Kingdom of England 4 7 308 63.96% 42.14 2.891 43.83% -1.808 -0.3131
The Kingdom of England 5 9 141 70.21% 40.06 2.036 26.95% -2.66 -0.5901
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1087 32.66% 60.62 9.474 48.57% -2.083 0.1605
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 573 42.31% 35.07 -0.486 75.92% -0.395 0.1163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 560 57.68% 33.28 -0.889 59.11% -0.997 -0.0945
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 538 37.99% 32.46 -1.757 31.23% -2.792 -0.6508
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 287 38.33% 32.49 -2.101 18.82% -3.55 -1.3518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 271 38.75% 33.61 -1.748 16.24% -3.772 -1.6118
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 126 38.1% 36.98 0.162 15.08% -3.626 -1.8089
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 682 35.54% 43.6 2.294 19.5% -3.491 -1.3998
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 630 42.83% 32.86 -1.969 81.43% 0.048 0.1366
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 555 46.75% 35.39 -0.602 76.04% -0.256 -0.2214
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 731 58.85% 34.86 -0.404 67.58% -0.551 -0.3132
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 532 59.32% 44.5 4.461 72.56% -0.343 -0.0529
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 370 77.84% 39.95 2.549 53.51% -0.938 -0.1566
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 158 76.58% 42.3 3.313 46.84% -1.2 -0.0322
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 340 70.41% 44.56 4.135 46.76% -1.43 -0.3078
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 143 32.17% 34.62 -0.465 91.61% 0.74 0.6516
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 115 63.48% 34.45 0.37 71.3% -0.394 0.3846
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 197 43.15% 43.33 4.462 84.77% 0.232 0.6436
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 98 64.29% 40.46 2.958 53.06% -1.363 -0.1183
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 43 81.4% 45.14 5.954 58.14% -0.849 0.2593
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 25 68.0% 37.8 1.9 24.0% -2.19 -0.2063
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 77 89.47% 44.18 5.322 18.18% -2.439 -0.567

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 691 44.71% 34.14 -1.44 64.25% -0.364 0.2021
Dahan Insurrection 4 2152 39.27% 52.66 6.678 61.99% -0.393 0.0075
Despicable Theft 2 21 57.14% 40.29 3.328 76.19% 0.003 0.2765
Elemental Invocation 1 87 68.6% 32.45 -1.508 44.83% -0.784 -0.2811
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2697 14.61% 48.43 3.949 65.89% -0.485 -0.1203
Powers Long Forgotten 1 462 59.44% 35.92 0.156 60.17% -0.497 -0.0503
Rituals of Terror 3 426 54.85% 45.7 4.859 62.44% -0.297 0.3482
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 257 80.16% 38.14 1.933 51.36% -0.488 0.1582
Second Wave 0 1245 57.28% 32.56 -1.658 64.66% -0.558 -0.1282
Ward the Shores 2 478 55.44% 35.67 -0.062 52.3% -1.118 -0.0865

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 787 32.37 -3.239 45.87% -1.754 0.3157
Aid From Lesser Spirits 841 33.54 -2.615 48.87% -1.643 0.2702
All Things Weaken 308 30.39 -3.538 50.32% -1.663 0.4964
Back Against the Wall 879 31.99 -3.329 46.99% -1.752 0.3354
Disintegrating Ecosystem 765 31.24 -3.713 50.07% -1.512 0.7101
Downward Spiral 1759 35.5 -3.163 52.81% -1.548 0.4736
Erosion of Will 778 31.71 -3.381 48.07% -1.681 0.5262
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 103 36.72 -0.466 70.87% -0.597 0.0817
Memory Fades to Dust 1651 35.48 -3.197 48.15% -1.736 0.4787
Power Corrodes the Spirit 277 30.05 -3.49 53.79% -1.55 0.4709
Promising Farmlands 842 31.16 -3.97 49.17% -1.651 0.5571
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 70 41.03 1.7 81.43% 0.192 0.6039
Thriving Communities 290 29.16 -4.214 46.9% -1.819 0.2692
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.322 47.12% -1.489 0.7358
Unnatural Proliferation 322 30.94 -3.162 46.27% -1.807 0.2734
Untended Land Crumbles 288 29.63 -3.852 50.35% -1.698 0.4042

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 12818 46.01% 39.8 0.817 65.95% 0.027 -0.5487
Northeast 9845 45.58% 39.64 0.707 68.6% 0.076 -0.4487
Northwest 7554 48.22% 37.86 -0.159 66.2% 0.039 -0.5558
Southeast 2044 51.69% 33.71 -0.987 67.61% 0.078 -0.5512
Southwest 1851 52.11% 31.03 -2.144 67.1% -0.052 -0.2507
West 10334 48.0% 38.17 -0.37 63.48% -0.139 -0.4663

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 197 0.0% 29.74 -6.08 53.3% -2.483 -0.4306
Not Using Events or Tokens 3008 48.52% 47.53 3.312 59.71% -0.124 0.0908
Skip Initial Invader Actions 751 16.67% 45.03 2.555 84.42% 0.447 -0.2391
Start of Game Growth 1024 18.53% 43.24 1.68 86.91% 0.705 0.2356
Unlimited Undo 2006 31.82% 43.76 1.6 79.06% 0.223 -0.2004
Using Tokens but Not Events 2396 28.85% 40.84 0.55 83.81% 0.453 0.4022

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4266 22.37 12.4%
II 7721 30.88 64.69%
III 6801 34.39 85.41%
IV 3435 37.55 97.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3994
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2760
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2565
Lose: Invader deck ran out 163
Lose: Adversary condition 2435
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Scenario condition 868
Win: Scenario condition 1584
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3853
Lose: Spirit destroyed 208

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)