Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 200 22.5% 22.41 52.5% 0.075 0.0479 -0.479
Blitz 0 956 39.03% 26.79 53.66% -0.893 -0.6422 -0.193
Dahan Insurrection 4 2078 41.7% 49.52 51.06% 0.243 -0.0054 0.074
Despicable Theft 2 234 30.77% 21.71 38.89% -0.069 0.3925 -0.482
Elemental Invocation 1 339 47.93% 20.94 33.33% -1.357 -0.654 -0.908
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3319 12.11% 49.6 64.36% 0.094 -0.4584 1.448
Powers Long Forgotten 1 660 44.98% 27.64 48.33% -0.74 -0.1164 -0.135
Rituals of Terror 3 1291 54.11% 76.77 57.47% 0.456 0.6483 1.644
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 361 65.1% 31.74 43.49% -0.732 0.1899 0.1
Second Wave 0 2175 52.89% 29.67 58.34% -0.114 0.0037 0.52
Varied Terrains 2 209 37.32% 18.23 31.58% -0.422 0.3187 0.072
Ward the Shores 2 655 47.94% 29.06 44.89% -1.39 -0.306 -0.395

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1251 31.94 46.04% -0.738 -0.4882 0.112
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1234 34.09 49.68% 1.333 1.2142 0.216
All Things Weaken 756 32.87 44.71% 0.38 0.7168 0.098
Attenuated Essence 139 30.11 49.64% 0.319 0.3458 0.387
Back Against the Wall 1280 32.2 47.11% 0.242 0.2432 -0.244
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 142 31.57 49.3% -0.284 -0.0669 0.606
Burn Brightest Before the End 113 31.74 43.36% 0.542 0.5234 0.213
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1204 30.39 46.76% -0.001 0.3921 0.038
Downward Spiral 2631 35.63 50.93% 0.211 0.3193 -0.272
Erosion of Will 1258 31.38 46.42% 0.434 0.7858 -0.358
Intensifying Exploitation 148 34.45 53.38% -0.484 -0.238 0.305
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 304 44.88 69.74% 1.126 0.6018 0.947
Memory Fades to Dust 2491 35.31 47.17% 1.012 1.2596 -0.043
Power Corrodes the Spirit 748 34.16 49.06% 0.586 0.8075 0.215
Promising Farmlands 1277 31.16 46.99% 0.294 0.5769 0.129
Shattered Fragments of Power 119 29.17 41.18% 0.641 0.7178 -0.031
Slow Dissolution of Will 143 29.6 44.06% 0.978 1.3755 0.3
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 50.55 82.74% 0.912 0.2167 1.356
The Border of Life and Death 55 37.98 60.0% 1.166 0.5652 1.319
Thriving Communities 770 33.76 46.23% 0.324 0.6805 -0.038
Thriving Crops 66 39.15 71.21% 0.015 -0.1812 0.95
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.076
Unnatural Proliferation 801 35.07 45.44% 0.848 1.0103 0.09
Untended Land Crumbles 749 33.1 47.13% 0.222 0.4536 -0.319

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 35700 42.94% 35.38 58.78% 0.116 1.0189 -0.097
Northeast 19160 41.07% 35.74 60.44% 0.025 0.8328 0.378
Northwest 14294 43.44% 33.82 58.9% 0.128 1.0279 -0.017
Southeast 5483 43.99% 28.26 55.1% 0.174 1.0245 -0.005
Southwest 5291 45.32% 25.02 51.22% -0.25 1.1256 -0.446
West 30633 44.57% 33.9 57.15% -0.205 0.7503 0.176

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 474 0.0% 22.09 37.76% -0.887 -0.1789 -0.249
Not Using Events or Tokens 5004 42.5% 42.61 54.02% -0.003 0.365 0.022
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1064 16.89% 43.6 80.26% 0.876 0.2914 0.889
Start of Game Growth 1739 18.33% 39.98 79.24% 0.451 -0.0634 -0.156
Unlimited Undo 4029 31.38% 37.79 65.05% -0.169 -0.2787 0.397
Using Tokens but Not Events 4800 32.2% 41.51 69.71% -0.197 -0.2228 0.619

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11558 13.33 6.8%
II 12682 30.1 59.17%
III 11760 34.83 83.49%
IV 6621 38.67 98.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 786
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9261
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6108
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6159
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5649
Lose: Invader deck ran out 291
Lose: Adversary condition 4222
Win: Sacrifice victory 394
Lose: Scenario condition 1200
Win: Scenario condition 1924
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6260
Lose: Spirit destroyed 367

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)