Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 143 41.96% 34.53 -0.255 79.02% -0.129 0.1514
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 134 51.88% 35.94 1.157 74.63% -0.182 0.1906
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 140 72.86% 37.01 1.535 56.43% -1.056 -0.2081
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 125 75.61% 33.17 -0.078 38.4% -1.75 -0.5128
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 78.18% 36.05 2.118 38.18% -1.634 -0.112
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 81.82% 31.32 -1.915 9.09% -2.765 -0.7367
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 77 81.82% 36.52 1.215 16.88% -2.747 -0.6548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 723 37.36% 34.19 -1.424 85.06% 0.243 0.2898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 653 44.85% 37.71 0.647 82.54% 0.206 0.1777
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 869 45.67% 44.99 4.197 79.52% -0.048 -0.0506
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 654 58.81% 48.24 6.206 71.87% -0.325 -0.0404
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 432 57.08% 51.01 7.476 73.15% -0.386 -0.0083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 229 68.86% 53.31 8.305 58.52% -0.882 -0.049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 754 80.0% 52.72 6.685 40.19% -1.583 -0.3335
The Kingdom of England 0 1 648 37.36% 33.49 -1.931 76.85% -0.364 -0.0318
The Kingdom of England 1 3 600 44.87% 39.63 1.554 73.0% -0.425 0.0576
The Kingdom of England 2 4 628 59.52% 35.18 -0.404 54.62% -1.267 -0.3101
The Kingdom of England 3 6 434 65.27% 36.46 0.411 38.48% -1.891 -0.3138
The Kingdom of England 4 7 269 64.68% 42.12 2.814 43.49% -1.766 -0.2441
The Kingdom of England 5 9 122 68.85% 41.28 2.402 28.69% -2.544 -0.4802
The Kingdom of England 6 11 865 34.8% 59.79 9.319 47.75% -2.036 0.2192
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 478 40.25% 35.41 -0.414 76.36% -0.345 0.1794
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 471 56.26% 33.95 -0.692 59.66% -0.922 -0.0308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 468 38.76% 33.41 -1.378 33.33% -2.59 -0.4617
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 264 39.39% 32.88 -1.876 19.7% -3.379 -1.1924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 260 37.69% 33.66 -1.791 16.15% -3.72 -1.5748
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 124 37.9% 36.77 0.021 14.52% -3.593 -1.7743
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 650 34.51% 43.07 2.047 18.46% -3.484 -1.3493
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 551 42.0% 33.07 -1.857 82.21% 0.137 0.2226
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 479 47.18% 35.53 -0.52 76.83% -0.138 -0.129
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 604 61.03% 34.19 -0.782 64.57% -0.614 -0.3974
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 462 60.3% 44.15 4.226 70.56% -0.388 -0.1031
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 329 77.51% 39.9 2.442 52.89% -0.924 -0.1469
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 146 75.34% 42.29 3.319 46.58% -1.169 -0.0041
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 305 68.98% 44.85 4.218 47.87% -1.365 -0.2328
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 106 29.25% 34.73 -0.51 91.51% 0.688 0.5709
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 67 64.18% 35.06 0.609 73.13% -0.296 0.3925
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 140 43.57% 43.09 4.315 83.57% 0.183 0.619
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 66 60.61% 39.0 2.127 48.48% -1.54 -0.2656
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 28 75.0% 48.5 7.172 64.29% -0.744 0.414
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 70.0% 36.05 0.75 20.0% -2.217 -0.1809
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 24 86.96% 54.96 9.301 37.5% -1.497 0.4529

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 593 43.15% 34.08 -1.625 63.24% -0.409 0.1639
Dahan Insurrection 4 2015 38.94% 52.33 6.502 62.28% -0.406 -0.0048
Elemental Invocation 1 25 75.0% 35.04 -0.521 56.0% -0.45 0.0154
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2343 15.15% 47.43 3.621 65.22% -0.507 -0.1316
Powers Long Forgotten 1 409 60.29% 35.9 0.085 58.92% -0.505 -0.0576
Rituals of Terror 3 380 54.91% 45.37 4.642 61.05% -0.339 0.2831
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 234 79.49% 37.78 1.629 49.57% -0.559 0.065
Second Wave 0 1067 56.47% 32.41 -1.852 64.48% -0.583 -0.1637
Ward the Shores 2 418 55.5% 35.79 -0.1 51.2% -1.118 -0.0875

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 684 32.28 -3.335 45.61% -1.713 0.3555
Aid From Lesser Spirits 733 34.04 -2.46 48.7% -1.567 0.3499
All Things Weaken 213 31.18 -3.311 51.64% -1.581 0.5786
Back Against the Wall 765 32.43 -3.19 47.45% -1.664 0.4286
Disintegrating Ecosystem 659 31.33 -3.788 49.32% -1.489 0.7321
Downward Spiral 1542 35.83 -3.04 52.85% -1.499 0.5147
Erosion of Will 674 31.74 -3.398 48.22% -1.625 0.5866
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 76 38.49 0.007 67.11% -0.669 0.0433
Memory Fades to Dust 1440 35.9 -2.967 48.54% -1.668 0.5478
Power Corrodes the Spirit 185 29.51 -3.812 52.97% -1.557 0.4628
Promising Farmlands 731 30.73 -4.232 47.88% -1.654 0.5607
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 44 44.91 3.231 79.55% 0.175 0.5924
Thriving Communities 192 29.74 -3.996 47.92% -1.698 0.4092
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.321 47.12% -1.452 0.7637
Unnatural Proliferation 228 30.2 -3.49 47.37% -1.777 0.3037
Untended Land Crumbles 185 28.62 -4.428 45.41% -1.842 0.2533

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 11030 45.8% 39.92 0.761 65.59% 0.012 -0.924
Northeast 8332 45.71% 39.79 0.714 67.93% 0.089 -0.7802
Northwest 6438 48.32% 37.91 -0.191 65.52% 0.025 -0.9197
Southeast 1532 51.63% 33.78 -1.048 67.17% 0.044 -0.9393
Southwest 1380 52.39% 31.12 -2.089 66.96% -0.022 -0.6476
West 8984 47.72% 38.3 -0.392 63.31% -0.118 -0.7834

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 178 0.0% 30.62 -5.799 53.93% -2.356 -0.3175
Not Using Events or Tokens 2516 51.49% 46.56 2.956 58.39% -0.131 0.0889
Skip Initial Invader Actions 628 17.58% 46.65 2.912 83.12% 0.408 -0.2975
Start of Game Growth 863 19.71% 44.46 1.966 85.86% 0.675 0.216
Unlimited Undo 1822 29.31% 44.7 1.776 80.63% 0.26 -0.1422
Using Tokens but Not Events 2124 26.65% 41.84 0.797 84.84% 0.521 0.4752

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3766 22.34 12.43%
II 6666 30.71 65.42%
III 5624 34.23 85.74%
IV 2792 37.48 97.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 357
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3057
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2193
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1932
Lose: Invader deck ran out 139
Lose: Adversary condition 2114
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Scenario condition 768
Win: Scenario condition 1469
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3262
Lose: Spirit destroyed 188

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)