Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 9 0.0% 6.56 -6.105 11.11% -0.988 -1.1055
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 130 26.15% 21.77 -0.291 57.69% -0.198 -0.6359
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 0.0% 9.4 -5.628 20.0% -0.535 -0.6794
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 9 11.11% 10.33 -4.065 22.22% -0.674 -0.8657
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 10 20.0% 13.0 -3.814 20.0% -1.125 -0.5668
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 26 38.46% 50.42 7.366 38.46% -1.122 0.6563
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 544 34.19% 27.27 0.438 57.54% 0.038 0.4536
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 611 41.31% 26.5 4.086 51.39% 0.377 0.8038
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 454 56.83% 31.04 3.427 46.7% -0.229 0.2526
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 368 65.3% 30.76 -1.746 35.6% -1.679 -0.7806
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 185 77.84% 34.22 -10.121 32.43% -0.501 1.1026
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 65 56.92% 27.72 -5.669 13.85% -0.621 1.0537
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 278 50.72% 46.77 4.282 24.1% -1.051 0.9832
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1410 36.78% 29.4 -3.948 70.64% -0.394 -0.208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1717 38.7% 31.21 -2.231 71.46% -0.23 -0.2009
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1623 44.9% 42.14 4.076 75.48% 0.226 0.3604
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1170 54.62% 45.93 1.951 69.06% -0.161 0.1082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 719 52.44% 47.94 11.176 68.01% 0.47 0.7548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 367 65.21% 49.92 -0.844 52.04% -0.464 -0.1348
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1255 77.91% 46.72 0.324 33.47% -1.714 -0.4443
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1260 36.39% 28.44 -3.524 64.29% -0.58 -0.2065
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1126 43.16% 34.84 -3.224 64.39% -0.676 -0.1366
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1310 51.3% 32.4 5.311 51.3% 0.422 1.0371
The Kingdom of England 3 6 834 62.2% 33.71 4.295 36.21% -0.255 0.8685
The Kingdom of England 4 7 503 59.64% 38.33 12.322 40.16% 0.399 1.4158
The Kingdom of England 5 9 224 63.39% 43.46 -4.315 29.02% -1.175 0.3647
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2633 35.51% 67.56 10.227 52.15% -0.529 1.3443
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 930 41.12% 29.93 -3.8 62.9% -1.078 -0.5396
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1298 49.31% 27.78 -1.749 51.16% -0.687 0.2425
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 892 38.95% 29.41 -1.056 26.68% -1.502 -0.3078
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 473 37.84% 29.24 -1.016 14.16% -1.416 -0.1239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 352 37.5% 33.84 -0.913 16.48% -1.069 0.3641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 192 40.1% 36.76 1.946 14.06% -1.074 -0.0131
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1013 39.43% 46.15 13.53 19.74% -0.407 1.0945
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 260 26.15% 21.08 -3.155 49.23% -0.233 0.1189
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 234 29.06% 21.83 -2.617 40.6% -0.873 -0.5124
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 227 27.75% 25.2 4.436 42.73% 0.133 0.4654
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 152 43.42% 31.38 -2.3 44.08% -0.826 -0.5737
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 201 56.72% 29.2 -0.85 22.39% -0.964 -0.1941
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 123 67.48% 38.03 -5.266 32.52% -1.332 -0.7816
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 203 57.64% 48.45 -1.903 30.54% -1.217 -0.1096
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1070 37.36% 28.13 -3.753 68.6% -0.381 -0.1029
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 938 41.3% 31.16 2.348 66.74% 0.357 0.5865
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1272 51.5% 30.79 -3.829 60.69% -1.287 -0.9757
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 938 55.5% 38.44 1.096 62.69% 0.024 0.4595
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 566 69.79% 36.68 -2.92 47.88% -1.149 -0.4114
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 238 71.43% 36.28 -5.763 40.34% -1.226 -0.0449
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 613 66.23% 41.2 -0.132 39.97% -1.457 -0.4062
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 525 31.81% 26.89 0.311 66.67% 0.307 0.6066
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 394 49.24% 24.5 -0.707 47.72% -0.391 0.3172
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 575 40.0% 36.23 3.9 70.26% 0.253 0.6668
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 227 64.76% 33.85 4.675 44.93% 0.004 0.828
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 121 70.25% 39.12 -5.041 48.76% -0.557 0.5232
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 62 67.74% 32.84 -12.503 17.74% -0.799 1.1447
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 793 68.31% 85.81 14.276 45.65% -0.655 1.0297

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 168 23.81% 22.58 54.17% 0.174 -0.2526 -0.496
Blitz 0 901 39.31% 27.6 55.38% -0.736 -0.3996 -0.198
Dahan Insurrection 4 1987 42.2% 50.14 51.79% -0.284 -0.7338 0.079
Despicable Theft 2 205 34.15% 22.6 39.51% -0.898 -0.2718 -0.445
Elemental Invocation 1 307 49.67% 22.12 34.85% -0.323 0.4187 -0.916
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3142 12.09% 49.96 65.56% 0.499 -0.1426 1.549
Powers Long Forgotten 1 613 47.3% 28.8 50.24% 0.124 0.7571 -0.15
Rituals of Terror 3 1208 55.68% 77.71 58.11% 0.894 0.8145 1.66
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 334 68.26% 32.95 45.21% -0.418 0.3254 0.128
Second Wave 0 2050 52.96% 30.14 59.66% -0.728 -0.6309 0.55
Varied Terrains 2 189 37.04% 18.08 31.75% -1.4 -0.626 0.137
Ward the Shores 2 608 49.51% 30.25 46.88% -0.801 0.172 -0.258

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1215 32.1 46.42% 0.799 0.8534 0.079
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1201 33.96 49.29% 0.133 -0.0313 0.124
All Things Weaken 726 33.06 44.63% 0.593 0.7692 0.082
Attenuated Essence 111 30.68 48.65% -1.017 -1.0178 0.065
Back Against the Wall 1248 32.26 47.12% 1.17 1.1295 -0.307
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 114 34.96 54.39% 0.52 0.7015 0.465
Burn Brightest Before the End 85 32.52 43.53% -0.047 -0.0469 0.238
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1162 30.6 46.9% -0.066 0.2216 -0.056
Downward Spiral 2570 35.76 51.01% 0.473 0.5365 -0.288
Erosion of Will 1209 31.36 46.15% 0.931 1.1005 -0.525
Intensifying Exploitation 119 36.39 55.46% 0.378 0.4818 0.284
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 288 45.26 69.44% 0.131 -0.3642 0.929
Memory Fades to Dust 2420 35.23 46.78% 0.264 0.4702 -0.067
Power Corrodes the Spirit 714 34.67 49.02% 0.918 1.0309 0.181
Promising Farmlands 1236 31.29 47.01% -0.841 -0.5689 0.09
Shattered Fragments of Power 94 28.6 40.43% -0.458 -0.3844 -0.346
Slow Dissolution of Will 120 28.13 40.83% 1.211 1.626 0.258
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 190 50.35 82.63% 1.707 1.0593 1.278
The Border of Life and Death 39 37.67 53.85% 0.468 0.0568 1.176
Thriving Communities 725 34.1 46.62% 0.173 0.3994 -0.075
Thriving Crops 59 41.02 72.88% 0.656 0.4295 0.885
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.137
Unnatural Proliferation 762 35.23 45.41% -0.127 -0.0887 0.041
Untended Land Crumbles 711 32.82 47.26% 0.108 0.3255 -0.438

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 33752 43.52% 35.93 59.66% 0.131 0.9288 -0.057
Northeast 17989 41.61% 36.34 61.46% -0.026 0.6918 0.387
Northwest 13540 44.04% 34.27 59.69% 0.235 1.0777 -0.017
Southeast 5105 44.64% 28.92 56.02% 0.105 0.9286 -0.036
Southwest 4911 45.89% 25.68 52.47% -0.373 1.0004 -0.446
West 29100 45.14% 34.39 57.99% -0.085 0.7732 0.157

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 433 0.0% 22.83 38.8% -0.474 0.2124 -0.289
Not Using Events or Tokens 4818 42.78% 42.82 54.25% -1.178 -0.696 -0.054
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1032 16.94% 43.52 80.52% -0.974 -1.7236 0.854
Start of Game Growth 1659 18.84% 40.41 80.23% 1.818 1.4058 -0.133
Unlimited Undo 3822 32.1% 38.54 66.3% -0.809 -0.8638 0.4
Using Tokens but Not Events 4581 32.39% 42.24 71.14% 0.669 0.5465 0.615

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10526 14.12 7.3%
II 12170 30.27 59.44%
III 11240 34.84 83.51%
IV 6351 38.63 98.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 768
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8845
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5866
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5920
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4700
Lose: Invader deck ran out 280
Lose: Adversary condition 4088
Win: Sacrifice victory 366
Lose: Scenario condition 1148
Win: Scenario condition 1883
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6060
Lose: Spirit destroyed 363

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-28 02:06:15 (Pacific Time)