Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 157 44.59% 34.48 -0.254 79.62% -0.074 0.2067
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 151 52.0% 35.6 1.012 73.51% -0.252 0.1378
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 160 73.13% 36.94 1.558 56.25% -1.062 -0.1917
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 137 76.3% 32.85 -0.223 37.96% -1.766 -0.509
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 57 78.95% 36.37 2.256 38.6% -1.623 -0.0939
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 81.82% 31.32 -1.876 9.09% -2.774 -0.748
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 79 82.28% 36.27 1.141 16.46% -2.789 -0.719
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 786 38.11% 34.14 -1.444 84.86% 0.221 0.2589
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 710 45.4% 37.42 0.547 82.39% 0.176 0.1456
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 925 45.29% 44.83 4.159 79.57% -0.07 -0.0652
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 691 59.13% 48.31 6.28 72.07% -0.327 -0.0361
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 449 56.38% 51.01 7.504 73.05% -0.403 -0.0421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 235 69.66% 53.04 8.195 57.87% -0.897 -0.0688
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 789 80.51% 52.16 6.494 39.54% -1.622 -0.3773
The Kingdom of England 0 1 694 37.19% 33.32 -1.992 76.95% -0.392 -0.0601
The Kingdom of England 1 3 643 45.14% 39.56 1.533 73.25% -0.441 0.0596
The Kingdom of England 2 4 665 59.3% 35.08 -0.408 54.44% -1.294 -0.3245
The Kingdom of England 3 6 450 66.07% 36.46 0.462 38.67% -1.885 -0.3062
The Kingdom of England 4 7 276 65.22% 42.05 2.84 43.48% -1.763 -0.2619
The Kingdom of England 5 9 127 69.29% 41.12 2.361 28.35% -2.577 -0.5068
The Kingdom of England 6 11 944 34.11% 60.28 9.488 48.52% -2.043 0.2087
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 518 40.81% 35.46 -0.37 76.83% -0.322 0.2026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 497 56.54% 33.78 -0.724 59.56% -0.938 -0.0448
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 479 38.08% 33.36 -1.406 33.19% -2.641 -0.5116
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 279 38.35% 32.74 -1.997 19.35% -3.47 -1.2832
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 263 38.02% 33.54 -1.804 15.97% -3.758 -1.6154
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 124 37.9% 36.77 0.033 14.52% -3.627 -1.8034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 661 34.39% 43.24 2.099 18.76% -3.519 -1.4038
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 587 42.39% 32.85 -1.944 81.94% 0.096 0.185
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 517 46.9% 35.26 -0.665 76.02% -0.22 -0.2008
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 649 60.12% 34.58 -0.585 65.95% -0.583 -0.3597
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 492 60.08% 44.3 4.353 71.34% -0.36 -0.0744
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 351 77.78% 40.06 2.597 53.85% -0.882 -0.1145
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 150 76.0% 42.2 3.289 46.67% -1.186 -0.0258
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 322 69.38% 44.79 4.237 47.83% -1.38 -0.247
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 118 28.81% 34.96 -0.441 92.37% 0.769 0.6495
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 85 61.18% 35.42 0.852 75.29% -0.213 0.5054
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 156 44.23% 42.99 4.319 83.33% 0.189 0.631
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 86 62.79% 39.95 2.695 51.16% -1.418 -0.1675
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 40 82.5% 45.77 6.329 60.0% -0.746 0.3775
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 21 66.67% 35.71 0.69 19.05% -2.312 -0.2656
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 57 91.07% 42.18 4.424 19.3% -2.305 -0.3711

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 640 44.2% 34.18 -1.489 63.44% -0.397 0.1841
Dahan Insurrection 4 2067 38.9% 52.47 6.614 62.36% -0.397 0.006
Despicable Theft 2 8 50.0% 46.0 5.689 87.5% 0.499 0.8489
Elemental Invocation 1 58 71.93% 34.07 -1.071 44.83% -0.667 -0.2942
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2484 14.7% 47.82 3.761 65.86% -0.513 -0.1488
Powers Long Forgotten 1 431 59.53% 35.97 0.134 59.16% -0.533 -0.092
Rituals of Terror 3 397 54.57% 45.66 4.817 61.71% -0.317 0.3172
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 241 80.08% 37.63 1.61 49.38% -0.584 0.0571
Second Wave 0 1140 56.15% 32.55 -1.742 64.82% -0.576 -0.1526
Ward the Shores 2 443 56.43% 35.55 -0.141 51.47% -1.124 -0.0826

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 721 32.04 -3.413 44.94% -1.782 0.2891
Aid From Lesser Spirits 780 33.81 -2.528 48.72% -1.612 0.3102
All Things Weaken 248 30.58 -3.483 51.21% -1.656 0.4975
Back Against the Wall 807 32.15 -3.285 46.84% -1.726 0.3705
Disintegrating Ecosystem 697 31.06 -3.834 49.35% -1.519 0.7067
Downward Spiral 1627 35.81 -3.029 53.23% -1.521 0.4974
Erosion of Will 712 31.86 -3.34 48.46% -1.645 0.5657
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 86 37.97 -0.151 69.77% -0.637 0.057
Memory Fades to Dust 1511 35.62 -3.114 48.18% -1.73 0.4854
Power Corrodes the Spirit 222 29.89 -3.628 53.15% -1.582 0.4345
Promising Farmlands 775 31.04 -4.056 48.77% -1.64 0.5734
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 52 43.15 2.625 80.77% 0.187 0.6171
Thriving Communities 225 30.24 -3.762 49.33% -1.657 0.4384
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.319 47.12% -1.478 0.7435
Unnatural Proliferation 257 30.03 -3.583 45.91% -1.844 0.2421
Untended Land Crumbles 236 29.35 -3.95 48.73% -1.748 0.3476

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 11670 45.83% 39.86 0.794 65.96% 0.028 -0.9315
Northeast 8911 45.52% 39.73 0.716 68.35% 0.078 -0.8231
Northwest 6866 48.12% 37.92 -0.168 65.92% 0.039 -0.9362
Southeast 1729 52.09% 33.76 -0.998 67.32% 0.068 -0.9358
Southwest 1591 52.99% 31.08 -2.139 66.5% -0.052 -0.6518
West 9487 47.85% 38.22 -0.394 63.52% -0.132 -0.8312

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 188 0.0% 30.19 -5.952 53.72% -2.444 -0.3958
Not Using Events or Tokens 2696 50.21% 47.02 3.176 59.57% -0.097 0.1231
Skip Initial Invader Actions 689 16.72% 45.85 2.77 84.33% 0.457 -0.2476
Start of Game Growth 936 18.63% 43.9 1.873 86.65% 0.708 0.2558
Unlimited Undo 1924 30.93% 44.09 1.612 79.11% 0.184 -0.2327
Using Tokens but Not Events 2247 27.37% 41.45 0.73 84.42% 0.508 0.4568

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3946 22.33 12.62%
II 7087 30.75 65.25%
III 6072 34.25 85.72%
IV 3022 37.47 97.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 387
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2430
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2157
Lose: Invader deck ran out 151
Lose: Adversary condition 2200
Win: Sacrifice victory 38
Lose: Scenario condition 800
Win: Scenario condition 1517
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3500
Lose: Spirit destroyed 195

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)