Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 148 41.89% 34.53 -0.249 79.73% -0.102 0.1809
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 141 52.14% 35.87 1.146 74.47% -0.196 0.1988
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 149 72.48% 36.97 1.545 56.38% -1.083 -0.222
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 133 75.57% 33.37 -0.04 39.1% -1.745 -0.4954
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 56 78.57% 36.57 2.365 39.29% -1.6 -0.066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 81.82% 31.32 -1.916 9.09% -2.782 -0.7141
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 78 82.05% 36.33 1.15 16.67% -2.776 -0.6984
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 751 37.75% 34.17 -1.423 85.09% 0.239 0.2814
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 677 44.96% 37.49 0.567 82.13% 0.166 0.14
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 895 45.13% 44.96 4.185 79.55% -0.075 -0.0749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 665 58.89% 48.27 6.228 71.88% -0.337 -0.0437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 439 56.52% 51.1 7.52 73.12% -0.405 -0.0347
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 232 69.26% 53.06 8.177 57.76% -0.909 -0.0706
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 757 79.95% 52.73 6.678 40.16% -1.6 -0.3515
The Kingdom of England 0 1 674 37.26% 33.38 -1.973 76.71% -0.395 -0.0643
The Kingdom of England 1 3 616 45.17% 39.61 1.541 73.05% -0.442 0.0472
The Kingdom of England 2 4 644 59.38% 35.03 -0.448 54.19% -1.301 -0.3361
The Kingdom of England 3 6 436 65.2% 36.4 0.398 38.3% -1.912 -0.3322
The Kingdom of England 4 7 272 64.71% 42.17 2.863 43.75% -1.772 -0.2578
The Kingdom of England 5 9 125 68.8% 41.38 2.473 28.8% -2.555 -0.4845
The Kingdom of England 6 11 891 34.68% 59.84 9.33 47.81% -2.062 0.1952
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 505 40.87% 35.45 -0.388 76.44% -0.34 0.1849
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 480 56.25% 33.92 -0.672 59.79% -0.93 -0.0419
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 471 38.51% 33.5 -1.331 33.55% -2.606 -0.4783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 267 38.95% 32.79 -1.92 19.48% -3.429 -1.2449
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 262 38.17% 33.57 -1.809 16.03% -3.75 -1.5989
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 124 37.9% 36.77 0.027 14.52% -3.619 -1.7927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 655 34.56% 43.16 2.086 18.63% -3.506 -1.378
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 570 42.43% 32.96 -1.895 81.93% 0.111 0.199
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 491 46.94% 35.39 -0.594 76.58% -0.179 -0.1679
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 627 60.48% 34.38 -0.68 65.23% -0.61 -0.3906
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 473 60.38% 44.19 4.274 70.82% -0.386 -0.1031
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 340 77.94% 39.97 2.537 53.53% -0.905 -0.1344
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 147 75.51% 42.13 3.261 46.26% -1.205 -0.0372
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 312 69.35% 44.48 4.067 47.12% -1.411 -0.2798
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 114 29.82% 34.82 -0.502 92.11% 0.751 0.6281
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 76 60.53% 35.49 0.861 75.0% -0.25 0.4649
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 150 44.67% 43.01 4.29 83.33% 0.176 0.6144
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 81 61.73% 39.47 2.333 49.38% -1.527 -0.2683
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 35 80.0% 47.0 6.889 62.86% -0.65 0.4904
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 20 70.0% 36.05 0.739 20.0% -2.227 -0.1664
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 32 90.32% 48.19 6.588 28.13% -1.891 0.0442

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 612 43.76% 34.06 -1.603 63.56% -0.397 0.1802
Dahan Insurrection 4 2042 38.89% 52.4 6.563 62.29% -0.407 -0.0062
Elemental Invocation 1 34 60.61% 35.26 -0.467 61.76% -0.406 -0.0251
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2403 14.94% 47.47 3.635 65.5% -0.515 -0.1497
Powers Long Forgotten 1 421 60.24% 35.85 0.061 58.91% -0.525 -0.083
Rituals of Terror 3 389 54.92% 45.32 4.657 61.18% -0.335 0.2933
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 235 79.57% 37.68 1.605 49.36% -0.569 0.0809
Second Wave 0 1092 56.24% 32.37 -1.844 64.74% -0.583 -0.1665
Ward the Shores 2 427 55.97% 35.62 -0.15 51.05% -1.138 -0.1015

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 706 32.07 -3.42 45.18% -1.759 0.3116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 756 33.88 -2.516 48.54% -1.591 0.3268
All Things Weaken 225 31.13 -3.291 52.0% -1.593 0.562
Back Against the Wall 777 32.29 -3.246 47.23% -1.689 0.407
Disintegrating Ecosystem 685 31.13 -3.836 49.34% -1.51 0.714
Downward Spiral 1569 35.78 -3.056 53.03% -1.513 0.5039
Erosion of Will 690 31.75 -3.393 48.55% -1.633 0.5767
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 80 38.19 -0.186 67.5% -0.704 0.0005
Memory Fades to Dust 1467 35.85 -2.995 48.53% -1.687 0.5277
Power Corrodes the Spirit 200 29.27 -3.883 52.5% -1.618 0.4025
Promising Farmlands 747 30.81 -4.184 48.33% -1.652 0.5605
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 44.79 3.191 81.25% 0.276 0.7113
Thriving Communities 202 29.76 -3.934 48.51% -1.689 0.4085
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.316 47.12% -1.461 0.7569
Unnatural Proliferation 236 30.44 -3.38 47.46% -1.763 0.315
Untended Land Crumbles 207 28.61 -4.424 46.38% -1.853 0.2454

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 11281 45.82% 39.87 0.776 65.77% 0.024 -0.9272
Northeast 8579 45.61% 39.74 0.716 68.14% 0.084 -0.8055
Northwest 6620 48.17% 37.92 -0.173 65.69% 0.034 -0.9308
Southeast 1618 51.86% 33.76 -1.035 67.31% 0.054 -0.9477
Southwest 1470 52.79% 31.07 -2.135 66.8% -0.043 -0.6515
West 9174 47.77% 38.26 -0.39 63.4% -0.124 -0.8098

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 185 0.0% 30.21 -5.965 52.97% -2.45 -0.4056
Not Using Events or Tokens 2592 51.0% 46.64 3.018 58.95% -0.114 0.1052
Skip Initial Invader Actions 648 17.66% 46.38 2.86 83.33% 0.418 -0.2862
Start of Game Growth 886 19.57% 44.29 1.96 86.0% 0.698 0.2435
Unlimited Undo 1859 29.42% 44.45 1.706 80.42% 0.238 -0.1741
Using Tokens but Not Events 2172 26.89% 41.63 0.733 84.58% 0.502 0.4543

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3839 22.34 12.5%
II 6836 30.75 65.33%
III 5817 34.26 85.83%
IV 2879 37.47 97.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 369
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3220
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2286
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2015
Lose: Invader deck ran out 144
Lose: Adversary condition 2146
Win: Sacrifice victory 37
Lose: Scenario condition 781
Win: Scenario condition 1490
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3361
Lose: Spirit destroyed 188

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)