Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 171 43.27% 34.69 -0.111 80.7% -0.043 0.2349
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 179 53.93% 35.64 1.092 72.63% -0.289 0.1046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 174 72.41% 36.83 1.57 55.75% -1.073 -0.1948
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 144 76.76% 32.98 -0.115 38.19% -1.74 -0.4882
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 60 80.0% 36.13 2.207 38.33% -1.623 -0.1011
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 22 81.82% 31.32 -1.863 9.09% -2.774 -0.7971
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 80 82.5% 36.23 1.086 16.25% -2.809 -0.7598
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 822 37.58% 34.2 -1.385 84.79% 0.206 0.2462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 752 45.72% 37.31 0.511 82.58% 0.171 0.142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 982 45.51% 44.52 4.065 79.12% -0.115 -0.1103
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 722 58.81% 48.19 6.267 72.16% -0.343 -0.0541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 462 56.52% 50.88 7.454 72.51% -0.44 -0.0725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 246 69.8% 52.76 8.134 57.72% -0.923 -0.0935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 803 80.6% 52.05 6.441 39.23% -1.646 -0.4051
The Kingdom of England 0 1 715 37.22% 33.36 -1.962 76.78% -0.409 -0.0767
The Kingdom of England 1 3 661 44.82% 39.54 1.552 73.52% -0.437 0.0673
The Kingdom of England 2 4 705 59.34% 34.96 -0.435 54.18% -1.323 -0.3546
The Kingdom of England 3 6 471 65.88% 36.58 0.575 39.28% -1.872 -0.294
The Kingdom of England 4 7 292 64.73% 42.3 3.002 44.18% -1.765 -0.2668
The Kingdom of England 5 9 138 71.01% 40.12 2.053 26.81% -2.65 -0.5828
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1014 32.94% 60.39 9.44 48.32% -2.067 0.1883
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 538 41.15% 35.31 -0.393 76.77% -0.334 0.181
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 530 57.17% 33.62 -0.735 60.0% -0.927 -0.0314
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 516 38.06% 32.75 -1.648 31.98% -2.724 -0.5868
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 285 37.89% 32.56 -2.054 18.95% -3.519 -1.3342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 265 38.11% 33.81 -1.65 16.6% -3.724 -1.5774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 126 38.1% 36.98 0.182 15.08% -3.593 -1.7729
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 669 34.88% 43.34 2.167 18.98% -3.512 -1.405
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 608 42.08% 32.89 -1.92 82.07% 0.093 0.1782
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 534 46.9% 35.31 -0.63 76.03% -0.232 -0.211
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 682 60.29% 34.64 -0.495 66.72% -0.549 -0.3169
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 510 59.72% 44.22 4.362 71.57% -0.365 -0.0789
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 356 78.09% 39.94 2.567 53.65% -0.904 -0.127
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 153 75.82% 42.07 3.212 46.41% -1.219 -0.0618
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 327 69.54% 44.82 4.285 48.01% -1.382 -0.2507
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 127 29.92% 34.52 -0.537 92.13% 0.79 0.684
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 98 63.27% 35.31 0.789 74.49% -0.231 0.5123
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 174 45.4% 42.91 4.27 83.33% 0.167 0.5988
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 92 63.04% 40.13 2.781 52.17% -1.411 -0.162
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 42 80.95% 45.64 6.178 59.52% -0.788 0.3385
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 23 69.57% 36.91 1.38 21.74% -2.215 -0.1966
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 59 89.66% 43.31 4.923 20.34% -2.275 -0.3702

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 662 44.24% 34.29 -1.376 64.35% -0.353 0.2205
Dahan Insurrection 4 2110 39.06% 52.55 6.664 62.23% -0.385 0.0147
Despicable Theft 2 15 53.33% 40.4 3.401 73.33% -0.074 0.2087
Elemental Invocation 1 69 67.65% 33.32 -1.191 47.83% -0.707 -0.2679
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2579 14.58% 48.1 3.859 65.84% -0.497 -0.1307
Powers Long Forgotten 1 447 59.42% 35.87 0.122 59.28% -0.538 -0.0971
Rituals of Terror 3 408 54.07% 45.71 4.848 62.01% -0.313 0.3309
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 251 80.48% 37.78 1.746 50.2% -0.553 0.0886
Second Wave 0 1204 56.91% 32.64 -1.637 64.7% -0.567 -0.1391
Ward the Shores 2 458 55.9% 35.68 -0.053 51.97% -1.113 -0.0758

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 750 32.18 -3.333 45.6% -1.761 0.312
Aid From Lesser Spirits 807 33.68 -2.549 48.82% -1.617 0.3016
All Things Weaken 273 30.53 -3.459 51.28% -1.644 0.5145
Back Against the Wall 831 31.99 -3.341 46.45% -1.748 0.3461
Disintegrating Ecosystem 726 31.19 -3.729 50.0% -1.497 0.7278
Downward Spiral 1694 35.66 -3.072 53.25% -1.516 0.505
Erosion of Will 736 31.82 -3.341 48.51% -1.651 0.5579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 93 37.77 -0.166 70.97% -0.565 0.1281
Memory Fades to Dust 1576 35.58 -3.125 48.54% -1.708 0.5108
Power Corrodes the Spirit 249 29.88 -3.532 54.22% -1.527 0.4937
Promising Farmlands 808 30.87 -4.099 48.76% -1.66 0.5542
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 61 42.31 2.199 78.69% 0.078 0.4894
Thriving Communities 252 29.63 -4.003 48.41% -1.745 0.3488
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.307 47.12% -1.477 0.7485
Unnatural Proliferation 291 30.25 -3.419 46.39% -1.822 0.2675
Untended Land Crumbles 256 29.45 -3.895 50.0% -1.695 0.411

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 12166 45.87% 39.77 0.782 65.99% 0.026 -0.9545
Northeast 9330 45.62% 39.64 0.701 68.51% 0.077 -0.8545
Northwest 7199 48.09% 37.92 -0.138 66.13% 0.047 -0.9529
Southeast 1893 51.75% 33.76 -0.971 67.46% 0.074 -0.9515
Southwest 1721 52.35% 31.06 -2.133 66.88% -0.058 -0.6783
West 9863 47.74% 38.18 -0.376 63.58% -0.136 -0.8612

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 191 0.0% 29.95 -6.009 52.88% -2.469 -0.4146
Not Using Events or Tokens 2834 49.7% 47.21 3.203 59.46% -0.113 0.1043
Skip Initial Invader Actions 734 16.06% 45.31 2.639 85.29% 0.447 -0.2464
Start of Game Growth 993 18.14% 43.44 1.759 87.41% 0.736 0.2732
Unlimited Undo 1968 31.42% 43.96 1.644 79.12% 0.204 -0.2165
Using Tokens but Not Events 2333 28.4% 41.08 0.621 84.1% 0.469 0.4165

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4099 22.34 12.64%
II 7370 30.81 65.12%
III 6408 34.31 85.58%
IV 3209 37.5 97.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 407
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3685
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2582
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2341
Lose: Invader deck ran out 159
Lose: Adversary condition 2308
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Scenario condition 831
Win: Scenario condition 1551
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3646
Lose: Spirit destroyed 202

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)