Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 55 21.82% 30.15 70.91% -0.062 -0.2507 -0.098
Blitz 0 630 44.46% 32.94 65.56% -0.313 -0.1291 -0.256
Dahan Insurrection 4 1726 44.71% 52.81 54.0% 0.165 -0.1488 -0.069
Despicable Theft 2 91 43.96% 36.62 62.64% -0.628 0.1172 0.005
Elemental Invocation 1 165 62.2% 28.33 41.82% -1.558 -0.7863 -1.456
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2477 12.01% 53.37 69.64% 0.663 0.0419 1.352
Powers Long Forgotten 1 427 54.46% 34.41 60.19% -0.291 0.2511 -0.752
Rituals of Terror 3 806 60.95% 82.37 63.52% 0.375 0.4823 1.459
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 249 79.12% 38.88 52.61% 0.226 1.1971 -0.112
Second Wave 0 1473 53.84% 32.36 66.4% 0.292 0.3601 0.299
Varied Terrains 2 49 57.14% 27.0 48.98% -0.333 0.2405 -0.069
Ward the Shores 2 456 55.48% 34.29 51.54% -0.421 0.7119 -0.252

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1020 32.9 45.78% 0.149 0.3473 -0.096
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1032 34.14 49.42% 0.527 0.4607 -0.315
All Things Weaken 523 34.33 45.89% 0.111 0.4786 -0.291
Attenuated Essence 14 27.86 50.0% 0.523 0.5935 -0.273
Back Against the Wall 1089 32.28 46.01% 0.528 0.5973 -0.631
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16 23.31 43.75% 0.337 0.5937 -0.251
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 38.0 60.0% 0.697 0.872 0.734
Disintegrating Ecosystem 978 31.14 47.96% -0.094 0.3448 -0.363
Downward Spiral 2171 36.86 52.6% 0.431 0.6773 -0.638
Erosion of Will 999 31.84 46.45% -0.02 0.2978 -0.703
Intensifying Exploitation 13 51.08 46.15% 0.371 0.6404 0.612
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 209 47.54 73.68% 0.792 0.2822 0.476
Memory Fades to Dust 2037 36.24 47.03% -0.027 0.3373 -0.492
Power Corrodes the Spirit 511 36.0 49.32% 0.552 0.7883 -0.073
Promising Farmlands 1054 32.48 48.86% 0.371 0.8311 -0.188
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 37.59 58.82% 0.622 0.6775 -0.815
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 27.62 23.08% -0.342 0.066 0.229
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 135 51.69 82.22% 1.732 1.0892 0.839
The Border of Life and Death 3 51.67 33.33% -0.098 -0.4846 0.272
Thriving Communities 538 34.78 45.91% -0.19 0.1672 -0.35
Thriving Crops 7 41.86 85.71% 1.263 1.1475 0.698
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.296
Unnatural Proliferation 575 36.11 46.09% 0.321 0.4939 -0.367
Untended Land Crumbles 520 34.26 47.88% -0.077 0.1711 -0.874

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 24936 46.26% 39.48 65.11% -0.028 0.5795 -0.092
Northeast 13136 45.12% 39.96 66.66% 0.078 0.8267 0.332
Northwest 9954 47.69% 37.92 64.4% -0.254 0.5617 -0.045
Southeast 3313 49.56% 33.33 64.65% 0.164 0.8922 0.068
Southwest 3207 51.45% 30.01 61.49% -0.062 1.0027 -0.393
West 21639 47.87% 38.0 63.39% 0.089 1.038 0.119

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -0.911 -0.0977 0.224
Not Using Events or Tokens 3741 45.89% 48.25 60.3% -0.033 0.3038 0.102
Skip Initial Invader Actions 889 17.12% 45.08 84.36% 0.456 -0.1776 0.325
Start of Game Growth 1314 19.92% 42.88 85.24% 1.23 0.9403 -0.136
Unlimited Undo 2753 33.07% 43.31 75.41% -0.23 -0.2273 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 3341 33.13% 46.08 78.72% 0.031 -0.0434 0.717

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6107 20.63 10.99%
II 10003 31.02 62.54%
III 8967 34.75 84.21%
IV 4789 38.05 98.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 671
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7066
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4979
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4482
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 699
Lose: Invader deck ran out 223
Lose: Adversary condition 3354
Win: Sacrifice victory 251
Lose: Scenario condition 1028
Win: Scenario condition 1736
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 311

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)