Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 54 22.22% 29.94 70.37% -0.177 -0.4423 -0.098
Blitz 0 630 44.46% 32.94 65.56% -0.353 -0.1966 -0.257
Dahan Insurrection 4 1722 44.76% 52.88 54.01% -0.007 -0.2744 -0.068
Despicable Theft 2 90 44.44% 37.02 63.33% -0.538 0.2248 0.008
Elemental Invocation 1 164 62.58% 28.51 42.07% -1.558 -0.7966 -1.457
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2466 12.03% 53.43 69.67% 0.63 -0.0029 1.344
Powers Long Forgotten 1 427 54.46% 34.41 60.19% -0.303 0.2307 -0.754
Rituals of Terror 3 801 60.95% 82.59 63.67% 0.505 0.6075 1.483
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 247 78.95% 38.91 52.23% -0.129 0.8764 -0.113
Second Wave 0 1463 53.8% 32.32 66.44% 0.232 0.2981 0.299
Varied Terrains 2 48 58.33% 27.56 50.0% -0.12 0.4589 -0.062
Ward the Shores 2 455 55.38% 34.36 51.65% -0.441 0.7141 -0.249

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1018 32.92 45.78% 0.074 0.2643 -0.098
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1028 34.18 49.51% 0.907 0.8433 -0.319
All Things Weaken 520 34.44 45.96% 0.202 0.5887 -0.293
Attenuated Essence 14 27.86 50.0% 0.559 0.6647 -0.274
Back Against the Wall 1089 32.28 46.01% 0.53 0.5926 -0.633
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16 23.31 43.75% 0.312 0.5947 -0.252
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 38.0 60.0% 0.679 0.8702 0.734
Disintegrating Ecosystem 976 31.13 47.85% -0.153 0.2787 -0.365
Downward Spiral 2170 36.85 52.58% 0.455 0.7156 -0.65
Erosion of Will 998 31.85 46.49% 0.064 0.3935 -0.704
Intensifying Exploitation 13 51.08 46.15% 0.326 0.624 0.611
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 209 47.54 73.68% 0.769 0.2707 0.475
Memory Fades to Dust 2033 36.29 47.12% 0.167 0.5609 -0.487
Power Corrodes the Spirit 510 36.07 49.41% 0.768 1.0134 -0.073
Promising Farmlands 1052 32.52 48.86% 0.456 0.9425 -0.191
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 33.54 53.85% 0.631 0.7075 -0.817
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 27.62 23.08% -0.313 0.1213 0.226
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 132 51.13 82.58% 1.72 1.0882 0.798
The Border of Life and Death 3 51.67 33.33% -0.118 -0.4784 0.272
Thriving Communities 536 34.9 46.08% -0.123 0.2545 -0.353
Thriving Crops 6 44.33 100.0% 1.448 1.3914 0.697
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.296
Unnatural Proliferation 573 36.11 45.9% 0.243 0.4431 -0.369
Untended Land Crumbles 519 34.3 47.98% 0.003 0.2725 -0.878

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 24861 46.3% 39.5 65.14% -0.077 0.5702 -0.096
Northeast 13088 45.18% 39.98 66.68% 0.035 0.8688 0.333
Northwest 9912 47.73% 37.96 64.45% -0.258 0.5339 -0.042
Southeast 3299 49.68% 33.39 64.72% 0.151 0.9151 0.071
Southwest 3195 51.46% 30.08 61.63% -0.009 1.0756 -0.395
West 21572 47.88% 38.04 63.44% 0.143 1.0985 0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 250 0.0% 28.31 54.0% -1.152 -0.3269 0.211
Not Using Events or Tokens 3732 45.9% 48.31 60.37% -0.024 0.3124 0.115
Skip Initial Invader Actions 885 17.08% 45.03 84.41% 0.457 -0.1504 0.324
Start of Game Growth 1310 19.9% 42.84 85.27% 1.146 0.8686 -0.129
Unlimited Undo 2745 33.13% 43.33 75.48% -0.136 -0.1362 0.371
Using Tokens but Not Events 3330 33.18% 46.15 78.86% 0.147 0.0772 0.712

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6075 20.73 11.01%
II 9990 31.02 62.53%
III 8937 34.75 84.27%
IV 4774 38.04 98.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 669
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7048
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4970
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4469
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 669
Lose: Invader deck ran out 223
Lose: Adversary condition 3351
Win: Sacrifice victory 249
Lose: Scenario condition 1025
Win: Scenario condition 1734
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5058
Lose: Spirit destroyed 311

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)