Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 187 44.92% 34.96 0.075 80.21% -0.038 0.2455
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 197 55.1% 35.42 0.986 71.57% -0.363 0.0478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 189 73.02% 36.52 1.49 55.56% -1.074 -0.1972
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 147 76.55% 33.23 -0.03 38.78% -1.736 -0.4906
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 66 80.3% 37.8 2.995 42.42% -1.448 0.0543
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 26 73.08% 31.08 -2.293 7.69% -3.188 -1.2346
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 83 81.93% 36.27 1.099 15.66% -2.894 -0.8514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 853 37.38% 34.25 -1.389 84.64% 0.174 0.2161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 784 45.38% 37.34 0.495 82.4% 0.134 0.1156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1027 45.95% 44.41 4.015 78.97% -0.138 -0.1245
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 752 59.25% 47.95 6.154 71.81% -0.372 -0.084
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 468 56.87% 50.89 7.438 72.44% -0.448 -0.0809
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 248 70.04% 52.86 8.182 58.06% -0.911 -0.0842
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 819 80.61% 52.21 6.496 39.07% -1.653 -0.4149
The Kingdom of England 0 1 739 37.5% 33.12 -2.088 76.18% -0.457 -0.1256
The Kingdom of England 1 3 698 44.73% 39.45 1.494 73.78% -0.439 0.0752
The Kingdom of England 2 4 749 58.12% 34.94 -0.482 54.21% -1.36 -0.3927
The Kingdom of England 3 6 492 65.5% 36.68 0.625 39.84% -1.866 -0.2873
The Kingdom of England 4 7 303 64.69% 42.35 3.037 44.55% -1.763 -0.2644
The Kingdom of England 5 9 141 70.21% 40.06 2.033 26.95% -2.658 -0.585
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1069 33.12% 60.52 9.442 48.46% -2.081 0.1664
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 563 41.99% 35.21 -0.441 76.38% -0.368 0.1463
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 548 57.3% 33.41 -0.849 59.67% -0.966 -0.0665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 535 38.2% 32.53 -1.729 31.4% -2.766 -0.6227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 287 38.33% 32.49 -2.097 18.82% -3.539 -1.3432
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 271 38.75% 33.61 -1.743 16.24% -3.76 -1.6018
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 126 38.1% 36.98 0.167 15.08% -3.612 -1.7947
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 681 35.59% 43.54 2.268 19.38% -3.49 -1.3927
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 619 42.14% 32.9 -1.944 81.91% 0.072 0.157
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 550 46.81% 35.31 -0.642 76.0% -0.255 -0.2215
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 716 59.38% 34.77 -0.438 67.32% -0.544 -0.3091
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 523 59.2% 44.35 4.373 72.08% -0.364 -0.0776
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 364 77.75% 40.06 2.598 53.85% -0.916 -0.1322
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 158 76.58% 42.3 3.319 46.84% -1.198 -0.0318
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 338 70.24% 44.56 4.123 46.75% -1.432 -0.3076
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 133 31.58% 34.65 -0.437 92.48% 0.843 0.7419
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 108 62.96% 34.58 0.405 71.3% -0.422 0.3566
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 192 43.75% 43.32 4.443 84.38% 0.205 0.6244
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 98 64.29% 40.46 2.959 53.06% -1.365 -0.1114
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 43 81.4% 45.14 5.937 58.14% -0.863 0.2536
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 24 70.83% 36.29 1.188 20.83% -2.255 -0.2559
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 77 89.47% 44.18 5.275 18.18% -2.51 -0.6318

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 680 44.25% 34.2 -1.411 64.26% -0.356 0.2131
Dahan Insurrection 4 2141 39.38% 52.62 6.669 61.89% -0.389 0.0095
Despicable Theft 2 18 61.11% 38.78 2.684 72.22% -0.168 0.1017
Elemental Invocation 1 77 67.11% 33.13 -1.145 50.65% -0.54 -0.0751
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2660 14.51% 48.39 3.962 66.05% -0.476 -0.1095
Powers Long Forgotten 1 458 59.08% 35.82 0.104 59.83% -0.515 -0.0701
Rituals of Terror 3 418 53.98% 45.79 4.884 62.68% -0.281 0.3637
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 256 80.47% 38.07 1.906 51.17% -0.498 0.1469
Second Wave 0 1227 56.98% 32.68 -1.604 64.79% -0.553 -0.1238
Ward the Shores 2 471 55.84% 35.64 -0.066 51.8% -1.131 -0.0967

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 778 32.44 -3.216 46.02% -1.74 0.3332
Aid From Lesser Spirits 834 33.48 -2.647 48.44% -1.654 0.2644
All Things Weaken 297 30.55 -3.469 50.51% -1.664 0.5064
Back Against the Wall 868 32.05 -3.307 47.0% -1.736 0.3551
Disintegrating Ecosystem 757 31.32 -3.683 50.33% -1.493 0.7317
Downward Spiral 1741 35.47 -3.178 52.67% -1.551 0.4723
Erosion of Will 763 31.8 -3.343 48.1% -1.671 0.5379
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 100 36.7 -0.538 70.0% -0.626 0.0606
Memory Fades to Dust 1626 35.52 -3.176 48.15% -1.729 0.4899
Power Corrodes the Spirit 269 30.14 -3.429 54.28% -1.516 0.5079
Promising Farmlands 832 31.11 -3.995 48.92% -1.651 0.5628
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 65 42.14 2.067 80.0% 0.132 0.5422
Thriving Communities 276 29.55 -4.043 47.83% -1.758 0.3367
Tipping Point 452 32.74 -3.315 47.12% -1.48 0.7458
Unnatural Proliferation 314 30.81 -3.222 46.18% -1.812 0.2747
Untended Land Crumbles 275 29.69 -3.809 50.18% -1.688 0.4176

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
East 12649 46.0% 39.79 0.806 65.9% 0.026 -0.6231
Northeast 9680 45.55% 39.65 0.711 68.61% 0.08 -0.5189
Northwest 7431 48.15% 37.89 -0.152 66.21% 0.042 -0.6278
Southeast 1998 51.78% 33.7 -1.004 67.57% 0.073 -0.6334
Southwest 1811 52.05% 31.05 -2.141 67.03% -0.053 -0.3264
West 10213 47.94% 38.19 -0.37 63.44% -0.138 -0.5364

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 197 0.0% 29.74 -6.08 53.3% -2.482 -0.4257
Not Using Events or Tokens 2953 48.9% 47.46 3.297 59.67% -0.115 0.1012
Skip Initial Invader Actions 751 16.67% 45.03 2.534 84.42% 0.425 -0.2615
Start of Game Growth 1011 18.26% 43.27 1.716 87.14% 0.723 0.2532
Unlimited Undo 1989 31.63% 43.85 1.623 79.14% 0.228 -0.1919
Using Tokens but Not Events 2376 28.67% 40.9 0.568 83.8% 0.454 0.4018

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4219 22.35 12.51%
II 7621 30.84 64.76%
III 6686 34.35 85.45%
IV 3365 37.52 97.89%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 417
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3905
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2708
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2496
Lose: Invader deck ran out 162
Lose: Adversary condition 2404
Win: Sacrifice victory 41
Lose: Scenario condition 853
Win: Scenario condition 1569
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3795
Lose: Spirit destroyed 207

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)