Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 246 20.73% 24.1 55.28% 0.686 0.4644 -0.034
Blitz 0 1041 37.66% 25.61 51.3% -0.618 -0.3992 -0.746
Dahan Insurrection 4 2308 40.18% 48.06 50.17% -0.26 -0.0843 0.528
Despicable Theft 2 273 28.21% 20.28 35.9% -0.38 0.095 -0.532
Elemental Invocation 1 395 45.43% 20.15 32.41% -0.225 0.3554 -0.74
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3625 11.98% 49.01 62.65% -0.849 -1.349 1.227
Powers Long Forgotten 1 711 43.02% 26.42 46.41% -0.997 -0.1111 -0.391
Rituals of Terror 3 1436 52.79% 74.58 55.92% -0.296 0.2607 1.166
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 391 60.87% 30.31 41.43% 0.051 0.8813 0.624
Second Wave 0 2383 52.63% 28.92 56.27% 0.419 0.3613 -0.302
Varied Terrains 2 249 35.74% 17.6 30.52% -0.885 -0.3208 0.002
Ward the Shores 2 707 45.97% 28.16 43.85% -0.427 0.4957 -0.529

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1327 31.75 46.27% 0.734 0.8065 0.204
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1318 34.07 49.54% 0.815 0.7683 0.297
All Things Weaken 823 32.28 43.99% -0.734 -0.3653 -0.233
Attenuated Essence 190 30.27 46.84% 0.359 0.3867 0.03
Back Against the Wall 1342 32.26 47.62% -0.373 -0.4535 0.771
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 193 32.16 49.74% 0.948 1.1504 0.674
Burn Brightest Before the End 164 30.42 45.12% -0.501 -0.4003 -0.265
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1274 30.14 46.55% -0.169 0.1932 0.62
Downward Spiral 2773 35.38 50.63% 0.406 0.6088 0.28
Erosion of Will 1321 31.5 46.71% -0.593 -0.2672 0.384
Intensifying Exploitation 183 33.64 50.82% 0.134 0.4515 0.961
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 340 43.72 68.82% 0.57 0.0513 0.093
Memory Fades to Dust 2630 34.92 46.5% 0.101 0.377 -0.225
Power Corrodes the Spirit 828 33.88 48.79% 0.242 0.44 -0.22
Promising Farmlands 1333 31.08 46.96% -0.101 0.2706 0.919
Shattered Fragments of Power 162 29.41 40.12% -0.162 0.0296 1.761
Slow Dissolution of Will 184 29.38 40.76% 0.628 1.0039 0.44
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 216 49.84 81.94% 0.723 0.1396 1.111
The Border of Life and Death 70 36.71 57.14% 0.759
Thriving Communities 849 33.15 45.7% -0.216 0.0047 -0.64
Thriving Crops 95 38.45 69.47% -0.195 -0.3023 1.267
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12%
Unnatural Proliferation 860 35.06 45.0% -0.325 -0.2284 0.488
Untended Land Crumbles 815 33.46 46.99% 0.181 0.3805 1.529

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 39401 42.09% 34.45 57.24% -0.029 0.8913 0.15
Northeast 21359 40.11% 34.67 58.61% -0.224 0.4992 0.18
Northwest 15686 42.5% 33.1 57.63% 0.182 1.1653 0.299
Southeast 6193 43.27% 27.31 53.46% 0.266 1.118 -0.701
Southwest 5980 44.37% 24.29 49.92% -0.159 1.1172 -0.161
West 33505 43.74% 33.17 55.95% -0.048 0.6431 0.222

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 598 0.0% 20.85 36.62% -0.859 0.0492 -0.06
Not Using Events or Tokens 5484 41.24% 41.55 52.64% 0.041 0.4288 0.22
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1152 17.23% 42.38 77.34% -0.124 -0.8475 0.402
Start of Game Growth 1911 18.07% 38.54 76.45% -0.058 -0.5458 0.244
Unlimited Undo 4458 30.23% 36.46 62.92% -0.244 -0.1628 0.553
Using Tokens but Not Events 5242 32.47% 40.68 67.78% 0.227 0.1827 1.042

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13480 12.37 6.19%
II 13698 29.93 58.6%
III 12709 34.92 83.37%
IV 7136 38.86 98.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 834
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10009
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6548
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6643
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7379
Lose: Invader deck ran out 314
Lose: Adversary condition 4534
Win: Sacrifice victory 424
Lose: Scenario condition 1281
Win: Scenario condition 2037
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6634
Lose: Spirit destroyed 386

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-25 23:57:52 (Pacific Time)