Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 26.67% 39.43 93.33% 0.737 0.2897
Blitz 0 595 45.92% 33.93 67.56% -0.248 0.2085 -0.261
Dahan Insurrection 4 1672 45.5% 53.55 54.61% -0.232 -0.2118 -0.087
Despicable Theft 2 74 50.0% 42.07 71.62% 0.18 0.692 0.919
Elemental Invocation 1 142 67.38% 31.89 47.89% -0.373 0.3264 -1.433
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2351 12.23% 53.7 70.35% 0.269 0.3097 1.211
Powers Long Forgotten 1 382 57.48% 36.49 63.35% 1.169 1.7309 -0.741
Rituals of Terror 3 721 62.45% 83.35 65.6% 0.654 0.3661 1.525
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 235 80.43% 39.89 53.62% 0.7 1.1304 -0.026
Second Wave 0 1368 54.47% 32.69 67.62% 0.538 1.0003 0.354
Varied Terrains 2 27 77.78% 35.11 62.96% -0.195 0.6335 0.629
Ward the Shores 2 434 56.91% 35.29 52.76% -0.092 0.6517 -0.224

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 989 33.21 46.21% -0.438 1.2925 -0.221
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1016 34.13 49.31% -0.229 1.3468 -0.408
All Things Weaken 497 33.97 46.08% -0.977 0.9008 -0.483
Back Against the Wall 1070 32.17 45.79% -1.031 0.6054 -0.753
Disintegrating Ecosystem 945 31.43 48.57% -1.097 0.7458 -0.495
Downward Spiral 2124 36.83 52.73% -0.717 0.9815 -0.803
Erosion of Will 970 31.98 46.8% -0.921 0.9794 -0.856
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 191 48.17 74.87% 0.282 0.7819 0.277
Memory Fades to Dust 1986 36.44 47.43% -0.801 1.0755 -0.602
Power Corrodes the Spirit 488 36.03 48.98% -0.968 0.7368 -0.369
Promising Farmlands 1032 32.53 49.22% -0.429 1.447 -0.302
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 120 49.85 81.67% 0.236 0.4459 0.444
Thriving Communities 507 35.57 46.94% -1.162 0.7084 -0.47
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.391
Unnatural Proliferation 538 35.81 46.65% -0.72 1.034 -0.484
Untended Land Crumbles 498 34.73 48.8% -1.359 0.4557 -0.988

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 23692 47.12% 40.13 66.31% -0.094 0.4975 -0.123
Northeast 12513 45.96% 40.73 67.95% -0.038 0.6392 0.344
Northwest 9463 48.59% 38.75 65.75% 0.276 0.7133 -0.073
Southeast 3041 51.38% 34.28 66.43% 0.274 0.9373 0.075
Southwest 2840 53.65% 31.19 64.47% -0.317 0.8544 -0.334
West 20434 48.78% 38.73 64.78% -0.088 0.7296 0.099

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 246 0.0% 28.77 54.88% -0.903 1.1729 0.121
Not Using Events or Tokens 3614 46.55% 48.81 60.96% -0.142 0.0294 0.142
Skip Initial Invader Actions 863 17.42% 44.5 84.47% 0.901 -0.1581 0.25
Start of Game Growth 1271 20.3% 42.65 85.52% -0.07 -0.4925 -0.161
Unlimited Undo 2595 33.59% 44.32 77.5% 0.222 -0.1938 0.447
Using Tokens but Not Events 3156 33.26% 46.53 80.77% 0.374 0.49 0.766

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5364 22.63 12.16%
II 9671 31.12 63.0%
III 8622 34.7 84.4%
IV 4588 37.97 98.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 652
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6802
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4831
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4315
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 35
Lose: Invader deck ran out 212
Lose: Adversary condition 3243
Win: Sacrifice victory 220
Lose: Scenario condition 994
Win: Scenario condition 1711
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4927
Lose: Spirit destroyed 303

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)