Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 35 28.57% 35.86 85.71% -0.024 -0.1654
Blitz 0 601 45.79% 33.85 67.39% -0.469 -0.1303 -0.257
Dahan Insurrection 4 1681 45.25% 53.38 54.49% -0.173 -0.4133 -0.096
Despicable Theft 2 77 48.05% 40.94 70.13% -0.031 0.5681 0.783
Elemental Invocation 1 147 65.75% 30.94 46.26% -0.797 0.0352 -1.428
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2366 12.2% 53.74 70.29% 0.432 0.0656 1.224
Powers Long Forgotten 1 389 57.47% 36.17 62.72% 0.134 0.6006 -0.744
Rituals of Terror 3 728 62.67% 83.23 65.25% 0.52 0.2463 1.523
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 237 80.17% 39.62 53.16% -0.559 0.1365 -0.032
Second Wave 0 1383 54.16% 32.63 67.25% -0.026 0.1613 0.328
Varied Terrains 2 29 75.86% 35.41 65.52% 0.57 1.1766 0.636
Ward the Shores 2 438 56.62% 35.11 52.51% -0.609 0.2506 -0.25

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1000 33.13 46.0% -0.069 0.9022 -0.22
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1020 34.19 49.51% 0.395 1.1809 -0.394
All Things Weaken 501 33.93 46.11% -0.314 0.7737 -0.466
Attenuated Essence 1 10.0 0.0% -0.564 0.3235
Back Against the Wall 1075 32.13 45.67% -0.402 0.4271 -0.741
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 24.0 33.33% -0.433 0.8175
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 48.0 100.0% 0.394 1.3347
Disintegrating Ecosystem 947 31.41 48.57% -0.412 0.7074 -0.481
Downward Spiral 2132 36.79 52.67% -0.442 0.5207 -0.778
Erosion of Will 979 31.94 46.58% -1.027 0.0896 -0.806
Intensifying Exploitation 3 73.0 66.67% 0.191 1.2654 0.368
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 194 47.61 74.23% 0.394 0.278 0.296
Memory Fades to Dust 1997 36.35 47.27% -0.369 0.7439 -0.591
Power Corrodes the Spirit 490 35.98 48.78% -0.583 0.3733 -0.36
Promising Farmlands 1036 32.47 49.03% -0.25 0.8855 -0.288
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 45.33 100.0% 0.612 1.5347
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 10.0 0.0% -1.002 0.2676 -0.211
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 121 49.74 81.82% 0.628 0.34 0.458
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.169 0.2432
Thriving Communities 512 35.44 46.88% -0.627 0.5197 -0.452
Thriving Crops 1 48.0 100.0% 0.458 1.334
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.383
Unnatural Proliferation 550 36.0 46.55% -0.151 0.8144 -0.434
Untended Land Crumbles 506 34.61 48.62% -0.797 0.2354 -0.976

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 23880 47.01% 40.01 66.1% 0.041 0.7018 -0.117
Northeast 12597 45.9% 40.62 67.77% -0.068 0.7963 0.347
Northwest 9540 48.41% 38.64 65.51% 0.103 0.6885 -0.07
Southeast 3077 51.17% 34.14 66.14% 0.405 1.0966 0.054
Southwest 2953 52.95% 30.84 63.43% -0.359 0.8824 -0.327
West 20692 48.56% 38.55 64.43% -0.131 0.8849 0.101

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 247 0.0% 28.65 54.66% -0.709 0.779 0.124
Not Using Events or Tokens 3632 46.5% 48.72 60.82% -0.255 -0.0639 0.137
Skip Initial Invader Actions 867 17.34% 44.68 84.43% 0.628 -0.0876 0.276
Start of Game Growth 1276 20.21% 42.8 85.5% 0.583 0.1115 -0.131
Unlimited Undo 2621 33.4% 44.19 77.15% 0.069 -0.1827 0.428
Using Tokens but Not Events 3187 33.05% 46.26 80.29% -0.162 -0.1603 0.751

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5521 22.19 11.88%
II 9742 31.1 62.95%
III 8681 34.71 84.33%
IV 4621 37.97 98.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 656
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6845
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4868
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4346
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 165
Lose: Invader deck ran out 216
Lose: Adversary condition 3270
Win: Sacrifice victory 222
Lose: Scenario condition 996
Win: Scenario condition 1715
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4961
Lose: Spirit destroyed 305

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)