Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 219 21.92% 23.49 54.34% 0.846 0.5841 -0.507
Blitz 0 1005 38.21% 26.04 52.04% -0.858 -0.4935 -0.28
Dahan Insurrection 4 2181 41.15% 49.34 51.35% 0.435 0.3033 0.113
Despicable Theft 2 258 29.46% 20.54 36.43% -0.555 0.0692 -0.552
Elemental Invocation 1 374 46.11% 20.63 32.89% -0.343 0.6058 -1.017
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3528 12.11% 49.2 63.15% 0.273 -0.1877 1.451
Powers Long Forgotten 1 687 43.94% 26.9 47.02% -0.21 0.7926 -0.154
Rituals of Terror 3 1383 53.44% 75.7 56.69% 0.449 0.5859 1.65
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 380 62.63% 30.61 42.11% -1.027 -0.1441 0.216
Second Wave 0 2289 52.75% 29.21 56.88% -0.622 -0.5725 0.48
Varied Terrains 2 230 36.96% 18.3 31.74% -0.659 0.2807 0.103
Ward the Shores 2 683 46.71% 28.74 44.66% -0.85 0.1081 -0.377

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1295 31.8 46.18% 0.737 0.9132 0.167
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1283 34.1 49.49% 0.742 0.638 0.252
All Things Weaken 795 32.7 44.65% 0.391 0.62 0.113
Attenuated Essence 158 30.11 49.37% 0.348 0.383 0.339
Back Against the Wall 1317 32.39 47.76% 0.252 0.23 -0.134
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 164 33.57 51.22% 0.144 0.2493 0.783
Burn Brightest Before the End 141 30.81 44.68% 0.709 0.8489 0.148
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1237 30.36 46.81% 0.462 0.8207 0.134
Downward Spiral 2705 35.54 50.87% 0.57 0.6536 -0.231
Erosion of Will 1300 31.32 46.46% 0.644 0.8981 -0.298
Intensifying Exploitation 166 34.34 52.41% 0.472 0.7285 0.356
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 326 43.83 69.02% 0.98 0.5768 0.87
Memory Fades to Dust 2577 35.17 46.84% -0.053 0.2262 -0.035
Power Corrodes the Spirit 786 34.05 48.6% 0.289 0.5608 0.233
Promising Farmlands 1307 31.33 47.28% -0.022 0.2702 0.216
Shattered Fragments of Power 141 29.46 41.84% 0.116 0.2512 0.13
Slow Dissolution of Will 164 29.55 40.85% 0.015 0.3769 0.411
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 204 50.72 82.84% 1.1 0.5403 1.452
The Border of Life and Death 65 38.0 58.46% -0.132 -0.4984 1.4
Thriving Communities 821 33.31 45.92% 0.182 0.4998 0.004
Thriving Crops 82 40.24 70.73% 0.982 0.8597 1.157
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.016
Unnatural Proliferation 831 35.21 45.25% 0.718 0.8077 0.182
Untended Land Crumbles 776 33.66 47.29% 0.344 0.6119 -0.151

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 37724 42.42% 34.91 57.96% 0.018 1.0217 -0.047
Northeast 20329 40.45% 35.19 59.53% 0.046 0.914 0.333
Northwest 15030 42.85% 33.51 58.37% 0.237 1.0789 0.037
Southeast 5845 43.48% 27.73 54.05% -0.141 0.9167 -0.097
Southwest 5656 44.59% 24.66 50.53% -0.024 1.3639 -0.395
West 32226 44.05% 33.58 56.57% -0.15 1.0639 0.158

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 552 0.0% 21.24 36.23% -0.833 -0.052 -0.206
Not Using Events or Tokens 5320 41.53% 41.8 53.03% -0.058 0.2638 0.052
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1112 16.88% 43.1 78.87% -0.365 -1.0066 0.828
Start of Game Growth 1858 17.94% 39.01 77.4% 0.587 0.0078 -0.166
Unlimited Undo 4281 30.41% 36.99 63.68% 0.016 -0.1962 0.439
Using Tokens but Not Events 5038 32.33% 41.25 68.72% 0.489 0.4058 0.673

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12610 12.75 6.43%
II 13234 30.01 58.86%
III 12303 34.87 83.48%
IV 6916 38.76 98.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 811
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9692
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6345
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6432
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6580
Lose: Invader deck ran out 306
Lose: Adversary condition 4394
Win: Sacrifice victory 415
Lose: Scenario condition 1259
Win: Scenario condition 1994
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6459
Lose: Spirit destroyed 376

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)