Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 248 20.56% 23.91 54.84% 0.256 0.252 -0.121
Blitz 0 1054 37.57% 25.45 50.95% -0.744 -0.488 -0.762
Dahan Insurrection 4 2317 40.16% 48.05 50.19% -0.272 -0.2386 0.484
Despicable Theft 2 276 27.9% 20.06 35.51% -0.928 -0.4113 -0.511
Elemental Invocation 1 400 45.61% 20.03 32.5% -0.064 0.469 -0.721
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3645 12.02% 48.89 62.52% -0.347 -0.8878 1.11
Powers Long Forgotten 1 712 42.96% 26.38 46.35% -0.419 0.2823 -0.346
Rituals of Terror 3 1442 52.71% 74.76 56.03% 0.598 0.6095 1.322
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 392 60.71% 30.23 41.33% -0.315 0.4734 0.69
Second Wave 0 2406 52.67% 28.91 56.28% 0.208 0.2057 -0.376
Varied Terrains 2 253 35.57% 17.35 30.04% -1.593 -0.961 0.132
Ward the Shores 2 710 45.92% 28.18 43.94% -0.25 0.5805 -0.418

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1330 31.76 46.32% 0.146 0.367 0.241
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1324 34.06 49.55% 0.154 0.2232 0.381
All Things Weaken 826 32.23 43.95% -0.419 -0.0219 -0.207
Attenuated Essence 193 30.11 46.63% 0.354 0.4297 0.074
Back Against the Wall 1351 32.24 47.67% 0.263 0.2433 1.06
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 198 32.4 51.01% 1.294 1.5786 0.916
Burn Brightest Before the End 167 30.83 46.11% 0.22 0.4458 -0.643
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1281 30.07 46.53% 0.557 0.8395 0.372
Downward Spiral 2790 35.42 50.75% 1.19 1.4226 0.267
Erosion of Will 1323 31.49 46.71% -0.289 0.0486 0.486
Intensifying Exploitation 188 33.09 50.0% -0.401 -0.0644 0.958
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 343 43.5 68.8% 0.218 -0.3375 0.207
Memory Fades to Dust 2641 34.9 46.57% 0.689 1.0287 -0.119
Power Corrodes the Spirit 832 33.86 48.8% -0.241 -0.0115 -0.306
Promising Farmlands 1340 30.98 46.72% -0.807 -0.4514 0.8
Shattered Fragments of Power 170 29.68 40.0% -0.457 -0.3999 1.084
Slow Dissolution of Will 188 29.68 42.02% 0.966 1.2903 0.704
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 218 50.09 82.11% 0.953 0.3127 1.493
The Border of Life and Death 73 36.33 57.53% 0.255 -0.1575 0.245
Thriving Communities 858 33.16 45.8% 0.04 0.2712 -0.578
Thriving Crops 98 39.1 68.37% -0.63 -0.7858 1.144
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12%
Unnatural Proliferation 868 35.1 45.05% 0.211 0.3378 0.724
Untended Land Crumbles 823 33.66 47.27% 0.79 0.9967 1.591

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 39715 42.06% 34.38 57.16% -0.118 0.7209 0.136
Northeast 21557 40.08% 34.59 58.5% -0.095 0.5798 0.165
Northwest 15842 42.48% 33.04 57.57% 0.186 1.0205 0.288
Southeast 6264 43.19% 27.23 53.37% 0.014 1.0543 -0.625
Southwest 6037 44.35% 24.27 49.89% -0.075 1.1402 -0.146
West 33763 43.72% 33.12 55.9% 0.074 0.7689 0.171

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 598 0.0% 20.85 36.62% -0.789 0.0575 -0.02
Not Using Events or Tokens 5508 41.33% 41.52 52.61% -0.341 0.0237 0.451
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1154 17.19% 42.42 77.38% 0.318 -0.4747 0.407
Start of Game Growth 1924 18.16% 38.58 76.51% 0.57 0.045 0.57
Unlimited Undo 4478 30.16% 36.44 62.95% -0.085 -0.0189 0.509
Using Tokens but Not Events 5279 32.43% 40.63 67.76% 0.524 0.5239 1.092

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13635 12.31 6.14%
II 13763 29.92 58.59%
III 12790 34.93 83.42%
IV 7191 38.88 98.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 837
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10079
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6581
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6693
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7533
Lose: Invader deck ran out 314
Lose: Adversary condition 4549
Win: Sacrifice victory 429
Lose: Scenario condition 1283
Win: Scenario condition 2044
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6651
Lose: Spirit destroyed 386

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-01 23:57:53 (Pacific Time)