Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 164 24.39% 22.55 54.27% 0.089 -0.4553 -0.495
Blitz 0 891 39.52% 27.75 55.67% -0.693 -0.2845 -0.197
Dahan Insurrection 4 1975 42.15% 50.17 51.8% 0.087 -0.3971 0.076
Despicable Theft 2 201 34.83% 22.85 39.8% -1.08 -0.5321 -0.44
Elemental Invocation 1 305 50.0% 22.12 34.75% -0.201 0.5344 -0.914
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3126 12.14% 50.03 65.61% 0.461 -0.1982 1.54
Powers Long Forgotten 1 609 47.28% 28.89 50.41% 0.245 0.8276 -0.143
Rituals of Terror 3 1198 55.65% 77.86 58.26% 0.982 0.8898 1.66
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 332 68.37% 33.0 45.18% -0.178 0.5747 0.123
Second Wave 0 2019 52.93% 30.26 59.88% -0.82 -0.7229 0.549
Varied Terrains 2 184 36.41% 18.09 32.61% -0.699 0.1235 0.117
Ward the Shores 2 601 49.42% 30.5 47.42% -0.573 0.2777 -0.25

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1210 32.12 46.45% 1.19 1.2705 0.076
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1198 33.95 49.33% -0.002 -0.1131 0.13
All Things Weaken 718 33.1 44.43% 0.579 0.7626 0.081
Attenuated Essence 107 31.1 49.53% -0.556 -0.4935 0.102
Back Against the Wall 1237 32.19 47.05% 1.346 1.3231 -0.371
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 113 35.04 53.98% 0.673 0.8512 0.473
Burn Brightest Before the End 85 32.52 43.53% 0.025 0.1166 0.25
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1155 30.64 46.93% -0.388 -0.0919 -0.048
Downward Spiral 2561 35.77 51.07% 0.463 0.5708 -0.289
Erosion of Will 1202 31.41 46.34% 1.033 1.1966 -0.526
Intensifying Exploitation 114 36.85 55.26% 0.128 0.3318 0.293
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 285 45.28 69.47% -0.872 -1.3193 0.929
Memory Fades to Dust 2413 35.25 46.75% 0.061 0.3008 -0.068
Power Corrodes the Spirit 713 34.67 48.95% 0.892 1.0057 0.182
Promising Farmlands 1232 31.33 47.08% -0.533 -0.157 0.088
Shattered Fragments of Power 92 29.22 41.3% -0.136 -0.0589 -0.346
Slow Dissolution of Will 118 27.81 39.83% 0.896 1.3612 0.267
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 184 50.81 82.07% 0.849 0.2782 1.275
The Border of Life and Death 37 35.46 54.05% 0.295 -0.1678 1.062
Thriving Communities 722 34.13 46.54% 0.163 0.4057 -0.075
Thriving Crops 59 41.02 72.88% 0.457 0.2388 0.882
Tipping Point 452 32.74 47.12% -0.139
Unnatural Proliferation 755 35.35 45.56% 0.207 0.3247 0.051
Untended Land Crumbles 708 32.88 47.32% 0.18 0.4295 -0.439

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60 41.67% 24.0 85.0%
B 41 39.02% 25.56 90.24%
C 56 33.93% 26.07 89.29%
D 53 35.85% 24.06 84.91%
E 46 30.43% 23.93 91.3%
F 41 36.59% 24.88 92.68%
G 34 20.59% 27.15 97.06%
H 43 44.19% 24.0 88.37%
East 33457 43.61% 36.01 59.75% 0.175 0.9892 -0.058
Northeast 17840 41.7% 36.42 61.54% -0.066 0.5726 0.388
Northwest 13436 44.17% 34.34 59.75% 0.237 1.027 -0.024
Southeast 5052 44.79% 28.97 56.04% 0.04 0.668 -0.035
Southwest 4848 46.06% 25.77 52.58% -0.421 0.9565 -0.44
West 28840 45.25% 34.48 58.09% 0.017 0.7758 0.156

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 406 0.0% 23.01 39.16% -0.211 0.504 -0.299
Not Using Events or Tokens 4771 42.83% 42.99 54.47% -1.18 -0.6849 -0.043
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1029 17.0% 43.57 80.56% -0.32 -1.0191 0.855
Start of Game Growth 1639 18.94% 40.52 80.05% 1.221 0.7438 -0.13
Unlimited Undo 3790 32.27% 38.62 66.25% -0.87 -0.902 0.41
Using Tokens but Not Events 4556 32.46% 42.27 71.12% 0.304 0.148 0.606

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10394 14.26 7.35%
II 12088 30.3 59.48%
III 11144 34.84 83.52%
IV 6319 38.61 98.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 764
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8766
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5828
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5890
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4594
Lose: Invader deck ran out 277
Lose: Adversary condition 4060
Win: Sacrifice victory 364
Lose: Scenario condition 1145
Win: Scenario condition 1877
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6017
Lose: Spirit destroyed 363

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-20 23:14:52 (Pacific Time)