Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1200 44.33% 33.47 0.203 74.25% 0.066 0.4875
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1052 53.08% 34.97 2.082 66.35% 0.14 0.4477
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 793 57.85% 39.07 -0.426 59.14% -1.046 0.0838
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 787 65.18% 39.07 3.915 51.46% -0.133 1.1804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 302 75.5% 39.9 6.631 43.38% -0.448 0.8813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 398 88.44% 30.35 -4.129 12.31% -1.58 0.4375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 789 72.5% 39.61 2.78 27.88% -1.748 0.5548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4467 41.74% 31.98 0.023 78.64% 0.49 0.3394
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3623 45.96% 35.98 4.805 75.49% 0.888 0.5923
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3259 50.14% 42.7 4.747 76.43% 0.22 0.3219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2460 51.37% 49.44 9.168 73.01% -0.02 0.2833
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1861 53.66% 52.08 9.569 70.39% 0.535 0.9417
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1149 64.93% 53.97 7.452 59.18% -0.634 0.3126
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4118 79.6% 53.95 8.489 39.27% -0.491 0.9984
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4069 42.54% 31.1 -0.85 74.78% 0.066 0.5443
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3034 48.59% 37.38 0.459 71.09% -0.535 0.0375
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2628 59.86% 34.51 -1.156 54.49% -1.252 -0.145
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1932 62.18% 39.02 1.953 47.52% -1.316 0.265
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1295 64.07% 39.32 2.157 39.07% -1.268 0.1926
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1036 73.24% 41.4 4.342 32.53% -1.267 0.8853
The Kingdom of England 6 11 5872 61.38% 46.55 5.892 24.47% -2.499 -0.0773
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3051 44.1% 32.6 -2.033 66.57% -0.87 -0.1706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2438 55.35% 33.23 0.973 58.94% -0.398 0.7718
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1352 38.98% 34.11 -0.594 36.46% -1.497 0.5655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1146 43.84% 34.15 -2.694 23.91% -1.599 0.6435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 908 40.64% 36.11 0.229 21.37% -1.489 0.4843
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 627 45.3% 39.61 2.122 21.85% -1.539 0.226
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3238 41.19% 44.27 4.957 21.31% -2.241 -0.0422
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 91 43.96% 34.84 -0.726 82.42% 0.192 0.0207
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 98 41.84% 35.55 -0.099 65.31% -0.531 0.4319
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 72 43.06% 35.44 -1.535 59.72% -1.121 -0.0683
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 76 60.53% 43.41 2.696 59.21% -1.241 -0.4615
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 64 57.81% 44.31 1.941 56.25% -1.483 -0.4046
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 88 62.5% 53.32 4.717 48.86% -1.13 0.167
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 235 54.04% 44.97 2.38 28.94% -2.262 -0.5626
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3508 42.63% 31.04 -1.106 77.14% 0.258 0.3426
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2837 46.49% 34.67 0.032 73.92% -0.156 -0.1113
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2703 56.9% 34.39 1.577 67.0% 0.192 0.4587
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1946 62.06% 41.92 5.008 66.55% 0.025 0.3659
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1572 68.0% 40.57 3.646 54.58% -0.668 0.3171
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 995 62.91% 42.53 2.983 51.86% -0.878 0.3836
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1861 66.56% 43.86 6.093 48.41% -0.77 0.3242
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1367 45.38% 31.15 -2.27 84.86% 0.741 0.3159
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 800 56.82% 33.45 -0.412 60.62% -0.714 -0.0223
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 649 56.39% 37.44 1.044 63.79% -0.509 -0.1118
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 550 69.27% 37.36 -1.748 47.45% -1.764 -0.4346
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 245 66.12% 42.15 4.206 51.43% -0.806 0.3356
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 249 76.71% 41.78 6.983 32.53% -0.824 1.0517
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 811 80.27% 47.53 4.644 30.83% -1.652 0.3593

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3098 51.6% 32.22 57.2% -0.268 0.219 -0.803
Dahan Insurrection 4 6877 52.86% 56.39 45.89% -0.589 -0.5092 0.203
Despicable Theft 2 222 55.41% 40.23 67.12% -0.487 -0.0308 0.733
Elemental Invocation 1 439 66.97% 30.41 51.94% -0.777 -0.1266 -0.905
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8141 22.83% 46.29 68.68% 0.063 0.1824 0.892
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1726 61.45% 34.89 57.3% -0.8 -0.2024 -0.215
Rituals of Terror 3 1555 54.95% 42.93 52.86% 0.696 0.5779 0.249
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1288 73.68% 37.74 45.42% -0.027 0.3178 0.132
Second Wave 0 3030 53.99% 26.47 63.2% -0.387 0.1243 -0.179
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0% 0.216 1.9256
Varied Terrains 2 52 71.15% 36.67 57.69% -0.278 0.5143 0.34
Ward the Shores 2 1619 58.21% 35.29 49.1% -1.088 -0.367 -0.327

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3817 29.38 42.44% -1.208 0.7412 -0.858
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2833 30.65 44.23% -1.549 0.2454 -0.869
All Things Weaken 1846 28.04 42.58% -1.428 0.6562 -0.989
Back Against the Wall 2784 29.47 42.39% -1.768 0.1134 -0.758
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3846 26.91 40.35% -1.237 0.8354 -0.926
Downward Spiral 9083 33.26 44.91% -1.455 0.426 -0.935
Erosion of Will 3867 28.09 38.79% -1.737 0.3516 -0.971
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 598 36.22 76.09% -0.283 0.3249 0.067
Memory Fades to Dust 9262 32.09 40.36% -1.503 0.5528 -1.13
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1901 27.33 44.87% -1.455 0.4647 -0.968
Promising Farmlands 3770 27.55 40.4% -1.35 0.6901 -1.011
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 402 37.31 78.61% 0.632 1.0705 0.264
Thriving Communities 1773 26.8 39.71% -1.238 0.8367 -1.17
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.622
Unnatural Proliferation 1879 28.83 42.42% -1.315 0.6414 -1.036
Untended Land Crumbles 1840 27.51 42.88% -0.947 1.0623 -0.882

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.322
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.069
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.281
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.193
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.104
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.278
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.419
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.589
East 52483 50.08% 38.51 63.32% 0.155 0.7607 -0.046
Northeast 26305 50.62% 37.93 62.2% -0.04 0.6532 -0.339
Northwest 17392 49.58% 36.22 64.48% 0.185 0.6639 -0.334
Southeast 6653 44.55% 35.3 70.52% 0.093 0.7775 -0.307
Southwest 5826 51.42% 28.74 60.66% -0.294 0.7443 -0.968
West 40348 51.88% 35.18 61.23% -0.089 0.7496 -0.268

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2507 0.0% 27.19 70.28% -1.554 0.6582 -0.625
Not Using Events or Tokens 17944 54.77% 41.88 57.93% 0.088 0.2886 0.056
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4060 18.42% 51.15 87.59% 0.854 -0.3892 -0.521
Start of Game Growth 4989 21.38% 49.69 86.29% 0.386 0.0079 0.982
Unlimited Undo 7913 40.25% 39.32 76.6% 0.295 -0.1808 0.813
Using Tokens but Not Events 8158 38.58% 34.1 75.95% -0.027 0.1459 0.075

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22988 22.69 18.51%
II 40748 31.12 64.64%
III 27354 34.69 83.42%
IV 12147 37.96 97.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4253
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21670
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22495
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11616
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1223
Lose: Adversary condition 10634
Win: Sacrifice victory 481
Lose: Scenario condition 2542
Win: Scenario condition 4749
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22388
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1186

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)