Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3054 51.69% 32.17 57.07% -0.162 0.2815 -0.826
Dahan Insurrection 4 6799 52.95% 56.44 45.77% -0.252 -0.1548 0.21
Despicable Theft 2 211 55.45% 40.42 67.3% -0.39 0.1085 0.736
Elemental Invocation 1 421 66.75% 30.14 52.26% -0.97 -0.4238 -0.857
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7690 22.46% 46.0 69.31% 0.216 0.4474 0.91
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1713 61.27% 34.93 57.44% -0.287 0.1206 -0.188
Rituals of Terror 3 1550 54.94% 42.93 52.77% 0.028 -0.2081 0.25
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1280 73.83% 37.75 45.31% -0.037 0.189 0.131
Second Wave 0 3021 53.92% 26.48 63.29% -0.505 0.1874 -0.179
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0% 0.258 1.8392
Varied Terrains 2 45 68.89% 36.31 57.78% -0.25 0.5365 0.542
Ward the Shores 2 1605 58.29% 35.33 49.16% -0.884 -0.0026 -0.289

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3780 29.31 42.33% -1.786 0.1843 -0.902
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2804 30.58 44.19% -2.108 -0.3307 -0.881
All Things Weaken 1798 27.91 42.49% -1.723 0.3255 -0.997
Back Against the Wall 2766 29.43 42.34% -2.055 -0.1163 -0.781
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3808 26.83 40.23% -1.787 0.341 -0.954
Downward Spiral 8992 33.23 44.85% -1.71 0.2514 -0.94
Erosion of Will 3829 28.06 38.78% -2.009 0.0727 -0.998
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 586 36.08 76.45% -0.311 0.1903 0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 9172 32.06 40.29% -1.7 0.4407 -1.135
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1865 27.21 44.72% -1.396 0.5845 -0.982
Promising Farmlands 3726 27.53 40.34% -1.548 0.4733 -1.019
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 394 37.0 78.68% 0.78 1.2764 0.178
Thriving Communities 1741 26.61 39.52% -1.516 0.5434 -1.205
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.642
Unnatural Proliferation 1837 28.63 42.03% -1.909 0.0478 -1.071
Untended Land Crumbles 1810 27.34 42.65% -1.467 0.5659 -0.909

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.329
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.072
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.288
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.197
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.094
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.281
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.427
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.589
East 51742 50.21% 38.44 63.29% 0.162 0.8239 -0.035
Northeast 25979 50.76% 37.84 62.13% 0.001 0.6604 -0.347
Northwest 17104 49.71% 36.14 64.41% 0.122 0.7328 -0.342
Southeast 6485 44.64% 35.17 70.66% 0.081 0.6121 -0.322
Southwest 5698 51.52% 28.67 60.65% -0.255 0.7129 -0.976
West 39699 51.98% 35.13 61.17% -0.098 0.7072 -0.263

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2487 0.0% 27.22 70.41% -1.134 1.0945 -0.616
Not Using Events or Tokens 17763 54.85% 41.79 57.88% 0.172 0.3983 0.024
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4012 18.3% 51.16 87.54% 0.689 -0.2914 -0.583
Start of Game Growth 4930 21.35% 49.69 86.27% 0.075 -0.382 1.039
Unlimited Undo 7805 40.36% 39.3 76.55% 0.265 -0.2868 0.825
Using Tokens but Not Events 8048 38.63% 34.09 75.88% -0.293 -0.1377 0.052

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22638 22.65 18.48%
II 40225 31.08 64.55%
III 27013 34.66 83.37%
IV 11971 37.91 97.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4182
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21388
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22161
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11452
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1214
Lose: Adversary condition 10510
Win: Sacrifice victory 474
Lose: Scenario condition 2407
Win: Scenario condition 4699
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22178
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1182

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)