Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 909 44.33% 33.61 -0.574 74.81% -0.431 -0.1471
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 785 51.42% 34.66 0.412 66.5% -0.731 -0.3205
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 633 56.51% 39.3 2.369 60.66% -1.196 -0.3192
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 632 63.29% 39.52 2.379 54.91% -1.425 -0.1794
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 218 76.61% 38.68 3.306 41.74% -1.69 -0.1881
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 322 88.2% 30.74 -0.424 13.35% -2.863 -0.9095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 628 74.68% 39.39 3.202 30.1% -2.541 -0.4981
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3802 41.07% 32.01 -1.488 78.91% -0.112 -0.0696
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2886 46.77% 34.21 -0.077 74.19% -0.294 -0.313
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2674 50.58% 42.5 4.195 76.48% -0.155 -0.1416
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2046 50.15% 49.5 7.223 73.9% -0.384 -0.0959
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1507 53.32% 52.0 8.486 70.07% -0.576 -0.2092
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 991 64.18% 54.36 9.758 59.33% -0.967 -0.14
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3708 79.72% 54.03 7.464 38.75% -1.6 -0.362
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3414 42.06% 31.04 -1.932 75.28% -0.351 -0.0195
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2569 48.49% 37.33 1.561 71.51% -0.474 0.04
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2190 60.02% 34.62 0.454 55.25% -1.192 -0.2241
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1541 62.2% 38.98 2.268 48.54% -1.686 -0.1071
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1051 63.4% 39.13 2.38 38.44% -2.153 -0.655
The Kingdom of England 5 9 900 72.97% 41.14 3.989 32.78% -2.233 -0.1594
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4627 60.07% 47.02 4.089 25.76% -3.089 -0.8406
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2572 44.07% 32.55 -1.034 66.37% -0.874 -0.3604
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2064 55.76% 33.17 -0.365 58.77% -1.055 -0.1556
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1170 38.8% 34.03 -0.339 35.73% -2.775 -0.6319
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 965 43.15% 34.89 -0.118 24.66% -3.42 -1.2238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 786 41.22% 36.01 0.361 20.74% -3.694 -1.5352
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 575 44.17% 40.15 2.543 22.78% -3.366 -1.5487
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2658 38.06% 44.53 3.409 22.54% -3.692 -1.5949
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2937 43.23% 31.01 -1.97 77.15% -0.156 -0.0708
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2353 46.51% 34.69 -0.059 73.82% -0.304 -0.2701
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2274 57.07% 34.4 0.19 66.84% -0.563 -0.3277
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1658 60.53% 42.04 4.002 66.89% -0.566 -0.2793
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1342 68.03% 40.47 3.166 53.73% -1.145 -0.3618
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 832 63.34% 42.47 4.102 51.44% -1.367 -0.2009
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1452 68.91% 43.45 4.465 48.07% -1.524 -0.4001
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 739 38.32% 32.24 -1.454 82.14% -0.022 -0.1234
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 541 56.67% 33.58 -0.281 62.11% -0.989 -0.21
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 453 54.3% 37.85 2.072 66.0% -0.849 -0.4293
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 436 68.58% 37.51 1.945 48.39% -1.622 -0.3678
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 161 61.49% 42.27 4.651 54.04% -1.571 -0.4544
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 190 76.84% 39.93 3.591 30.0% -2.46 -0.4615
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 604 80.3% 47.88 7.498 32.28% -2.337 -0.4583

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3255 51.58% 32.54 -1.789 57.11% -0.544 0.0253
Dahan Insurrection 4 7478 55.02% 56.3 8.304 43.59% -0.345 0.0535
Despicable Theft 2 94 52.13% 38.6 2.269 65.96% -0.23 0.0398
Elemental Invocation 1 233 66.52% 30.11 -2.026 53.65% -0.551 -0.0866
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7843 23.23% 45.25 4.091 69.59% -0.055 0.3112
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1857 61.8% 34.97 0.5 56.97% -0.293 0.1519
Rituals of Terror 3 1710 55.42% 42.57 3.702 51.17% -0.606 0.0391
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1354 74.0% 37.49 2.303 44.53% -0.504 0.1416
Second Wave 0 2901 56.99% 26.59 -3.883 59.7% -0.889 -0.4599
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 -8.985 0.0% -0.629 0.8347
Ward the Shores 2 1739 56.72% 35.83 0.68 50.26% -0.904 0.1295

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3154 29.48 -4.063 41.82% -2.127 -0.0535
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2314 30.78 -3.365 43.86% -1.988 -0.0701
All Things Weaken 1271 27.94 -4.394 42.64% -2.235 -0.065
Back Against the Wall 2250 29.59 -3.89 41.11% -2.138 -0.0467
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3153 26.84 -5.399 39.39% -2.241 -0.0159
Downward Spiral 7792 33.51 -3.678 44.48% -1.885 0.1379
Erosion of Will 3169 28.3 -4.689 38.37% -2.292 -0.0834
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 404 36.42 -0.316 76.24% -0.616 0.0709
Memory Fades to Dust 7912 32.35 -4.328 39.98% -2.123 0.0954
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1298 26.97 -4.929 43.84% -2.219 -0.1949
Promising Farmlands 3086 27.56 -5.029 39.89% -2.193 0.0212
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 263 37.24 0.119 78.33% -0.499 -0.0893
Thriving Communities 1240 26.63 -5.238 38.95% -2.35 -0.2555
Tipping Point 1650 29.0 -4.441 41.27% -1.998 0.2286
Unnatural Proliferation 1304 28.58 -4.157 41.03% -2.266 -0.1795
Untended Land Crumbles 1311 27.02 -4.89 42.26% -2.214 -0.1084

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1276 54.15% 25.47 -4.511 66.46% -0.074 -0.8347
B 1292 50.21% 28.16 -3.427 69.58% 0.158 -0.6987
C 1759 48.22% 29.38 -2.66 76.46% 0.667 -0.4216
D 1203 47.18% 27.24 -3.903 69.74% -0.017 -0.8671
E 770 50.41% 32.42 -1.793 68.96% 0.196 -0.7689
F 958 49.89% 29.9 -2.622 69.31% 0.319 -0.595
G 747 50.5% 28.73 -3.158 69.21% 0.136 -0.7691
H 769 45.03% 30.72 -2.453 75.94% 0.351 -0.5637
East 16451 51.24% 40.77 1.901 62.19% -0.065 -0.7145
Northeast 21491 51.3% 37.98 0.676 60.87% -0.144 -0.7426
Northwest 14344 49.19% 36.54 0.362 64.32% -0.073 -0.7426
Southeast 4287 43.45% 35.83 -0.005 71.57% 0.029 -0.6768
Southwest 3988 52.68% 28.92 -3.609 58.78% -0.518 -0.7912
West 14355 54.46% 36.35 0.07 57.3% -0.37 -0.7682

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2116 0.0% 27.22 -5.664 69.85% -2.128 -0.0718
Not Using Events or Tokens 15615 55.45% 41.8 1.772 57.05% -0.243 -0.0268
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3357 15.92% 53.06 5.614 88.68% 1.086 0.3987
Start of Game Growth 4018 18.81% 51.55 5.012 87.21% 0.602 0.132
Unlimited Undo 6171 40.37% 40.08 1.436 76.34% 0.479 0.0586
Using Tokens but Not Events 6621 38.23% 34.46 -0.737 76.39% 0.093 0.0408

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 18962 22.35 18.64%
II 33393 30.84 64.26%
III 21805 34.35 83.06%
IV 9529 37.52 97.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2823
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14134
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14533
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7486
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1042
Lose: Adversary condition 8723
Win: Sacrifice victory 372
Lose: Scenario condition 2005
Win: Scenario condition 4128
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18499
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1018

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)