Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3203 50.87% 31.57 56.2% -0.588 -0.441 -0.804
Dahan Insurrection 4 7035 52.58% 56.0 45.91% 0.144 -0.0635 0.213
Despicable Theft 2 250 51.6% 37.27 62.0% -0.761 -0.0782 0.514
Elemental Invocation 1 494 64.17% 28.87 48.99% -0.645 0.0867 -0.823
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8778 22.99% 46.07 67.45% 0.706 0.0991 0.87
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1779 60.57% 34.47 56.83% -0.224 0.2639 -0.217
Rituals of Terror 3 1610 54.28% 42.11 51.86% -0.899 -0.794 0.256
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1312 72.87% 37.34 45.05% -0.657 0.3349 0.134
Second Wave 0 3074 53.67% 26.36 63.08% -0.147 -0.0848 -0.207
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 85 67.06% 29.26 42.35% -1.189 -0.6262 -0.385
Ward the Shores 2 1666 57.11% 34.58 48.14% -1.473 -0.2639 -0.35

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3881 29.34 42.41% -0.058 0.2134 -0.818
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2887 30.76 44.44% 0.307 0.3452 -0.768
All Things Weaken 1901 28.11 42.35% -0.274 0.1871 -0.913
Attenuated Essence 33 28.73 39.39% -0.225 -0.0196 -0.451
Back Against the Wall 2819 29.45 42.43% -0.275 -0.1131 -0.734
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 40 24.18 37.5% -0.348 0.0661 -0.45
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 31.27 27.27% -0.516 -0.2113 -0.654
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3921 26.82 40.17% -0.626 -0.0991 -0.885
Downward Spiral 9261 33.14 44.91% -0.281 0.0722 -0.888
Erosion of Will 3937 28.12 38.81% -0.344 0.0639 -0.902
Intensifying Exploitation 29 29.07 48.28% 0.223 0.6099 -0.61
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 615 36.25 75.77% 0.843 0.3174 0.1
Memory Fades to Dust 9415 32.0 40.46% -0.303 0.1787 -1.089
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1952 27.34 44.72% -0.243 0.0613 -0.897
Promising Farmlands 3839 27.47 40.32% -0.418 0.1684 -0.98
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 28.97 37.93% -0.22 -0.0409 -0.731
Slow Dissolution of Will 33 28.12 42.42% -0.234 0.2993 -0.463
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 414 37.08 77.78% 0.453 -0.2248 0.228
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.67 33.33% -0.219 -0.3484 0.084
Thriving Communities 1838 26.93 40.04% 0.09 0.5832 -1.102
Thriving Crops 18 22.67 44.44% -0.068 0.0197 -0.524
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.578
Unnatural Proliferation 1941 28.83 42.14% -0.441 -0.1443 -0.967
Untended Land Crumbles 1901 27.41 42.66% -0.556 -0.1985 -0.836

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.318
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.068
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.277
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.19
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.108
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.273
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.419
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.595
East 54373 49.61% 38.12 62.74% -0.051 0.5527 -0.079
Northeast 27176 50.15% 37.53 61.71% -0.039 0.8424 -0.342
Northwest 17984 49.22% 36.01 64.09% 0.283 0.9557 -0.337
Southeast 7056 43.92% 35.02 69.25% 0.225 0.8614 -0.3
Southwest 6212 50.24% 28.36 59.63% -0.16 1.005 -0.909
West 41861 51.34% 34.87 60.71% -0.249 0.715 -0.292

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2563 0.0% 27.08 69.72% -0.723 0.1599 -0.628
Not Using Events or Tokens 18372 54.48% 41.57 57.74% 0.177 0.5091 0.064
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4199 18.42% 51.19 87.24% 1.382 0.8467 -0.628
Start of Game Growth 5142 21.32% 49.69 85.94% 0.303 -0.0275 1.008
Unlimited Undo 8249 39.29% 39.06 75.66% -0.372 -0.3937 0.774
Using Tokens but Not Events 8483 38.0% 34.01 75.35% 0.439 0.3852 0.072

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24455 21.03 17.93%
II 41755 31.04 64.59%
III 27986 34.74 83.46%
IV 12444 38.02 97.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4384
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22196
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23059
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11895
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1015
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1248
Lose: Adversary condition 10853
Win: Sacrifice victory 486
Lose: Scenario condition 2694
Win: Scenario condition 4830
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22775
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1205

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)