Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4131 45.63% 27.81 50.33% -0.683 -0.3419 -0.771
Dahan Insurrection 4 8283 50.33% 52.83 44.22% 0.22 -0.2219 0.244
Despicable Theft 2 563 37.48% 26.79 45.12% -0.264 0.3539 0.426
Elemental Invocation 1 904 49.23% 21.65 37.94% -0.984 -0.2851 -0.854
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 12832 22.69% 44.49 63.32% 0.901 0.2757 0.882
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2333 54.2% 29.88 49.89% -0.82 -0.2038 -0.276
Rituals of Terror 3 1994 50.78% 38.1 47.64% -0.122 -0.2052 0.153
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1569 66.92% 34.49 43.02% 0.182 0.9368 0.094
Second Wave 0 3723 51.35% 25.61 62.88% 0.356 0.4611 -0.343
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 397 44.58% 21.65 35.26% 0.018 0.7834 -0.803
Ward the Shores 2 2044 52.7% 31.18 44.23% -0.554 0.4155 -0.336

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4429 28.86 42.09% 0.056 0.0979 -0.592
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3247 30.3 44.16% -0.184 -0.3419 -0.479
All Things Weaken 2322 27.56 41.21% -0.424 -0.2702 -0.67
Attenuated Essence 291 28.66 47.42% -0.009 -0.0081 0.184
Back Against the Wall 3180 29.35 42.92% 0.053 0.0259 -0.452
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 344 26.9 42.44% 0.149 0.3289 -0.222
Burn Brightest Before the End 183 28.57 39.89% -0.223 -0.2234 -0.873
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4456 26.31 39.54% 0.062 0.3244 -0.616
Downward Spiral 10697 32.16 44.35% 0.149 0.22 -0.585
Erosion of Will 4401 27.79 38.6% -0.26 -0.0969 -0.643
Intensifying Exploitation 348 25.71 44.83% 0.109 0.2071 -0.157
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 769 34.94 72.82% 0.965 0.4382 0.355
Memory Fades to Dust 10907 31.18 40.14% 0.01 0.218 -0.751
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2374 26.96 43.81% 0.171 0.2662 -0.568
Promising Farmlands 4341 27.11 40.31% -0.322 -0.0697 -0.791
Shattered Fragments of Power 227 26.75 41.41% -0.009 0.0522 -0.461
Slow Dissolution of Will 288 24.61 37.15% -0.394 0.0107 -0.702
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 528 35.84 75.57% 1.051 0.3719 0.664
The Border of Life and Death 96 28.63 62.5% 0.674 0.259 0.386
Thriving Communities 2252 26.52 39.83% -0.203 0.0256 -0.871
Thriving Crops 128 27.47 55.47% 0.533 0.3042 0.662
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.383
Unnatural Proliferation 2360 28.23 41.4% -0.323 -0.2897 -0.634
Untended Land Crumbles 2317 27.02 42.3% 0.119 0.3323 -0.603

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.311
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.097
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.295
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.222
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.142
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.293
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.458
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.635
East 71019 45.76% 35.31 59.13% 0.067 0.8742 -0.13
Northeast 35109 46.74% 35.14 58.65% 0.04 0.7876 -0.309
Northwest 23225 45.38% 33.06 59.68% 0.256 1.0948 -0.374
Southeast 10678 38.15% 31.53 62.52% 0.215 1.0993 -0.391
Southwest 9406 43.38% 24.84 52.63% -0.383 0.9494 -0.961
West 54987 47.11% 31.77 56.26% -0.194 0.6836 -0.304

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3080 0.0% 26.37 64.87% -2.208 -1.5194 -0.363
Not Using Events or Tokens 22925 51.42% 38.31 54.12% -0.638 -0.1625 -0.066
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5381 16.78% 50.42 83.72% 1.192 0.4194 -0.698
Start of Game Growth 6523 19.57% 48.66 82.08% 0.901 0.5011 1.077
Unlimited Undo 11370 34.46% 35.61 66.26% -0.587 -0.6453 0.565
Using Tokens but Not Events 11059 34.71% 32.51 69.81% 0.73 0.6081 -0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37964 14.11 14.86%
II 50154 30.27 64.1%
III 33385 34.84 83.6%
IV 14909 38.63 97.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5637
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26621
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27807
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14284
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11997
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1444
Lose: Adversary condition 12310
Win: Sacrifice victory 541
Lose: Scenario condition 3273
Win: Scenario condition 5364
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25773
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1361

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-28 18:15:07 (Pacific Time)