Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3189 50.94% 31.65 56.32% -0.348 -0.1655 -0.807
Dahan Insurrection 4 7015 52.6% 56.05 45.92% 0.095 -0.081 0.216
Despicable Theft 2 247 52.23% 37.53 62.35% -0.776 -0.0845 0.519
Elemental Invocation 1 487 64.07% 29.06 49.28% -0.724 -0.0031 -0.825
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8687 23.0% 46.12 67.66% 0.752 0.1583 0.885
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1770 60.88% 34.51 56.84% -0.372 0.0998 -0.216
Rituals of Terror 3 1606 54.36% 42.21 51.99% -0.831 -0.9239 0.264
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1308 73.01% 37.45 45.18% -0.407 0.5186 0.135
Second Wave 0 3059 53.9% 26.41 63.03% -0.445 -0.3684 -0.21
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 80 66.25% 29.49 43.75% -1.171 -0.6798 -0.338
Ward the Shores 2 1661 57.28% 34.68 48.28% -1.362 -0.2091 -0.352

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3874 29.35 42.46% 0.027 0.3768 -0.82
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2880 30.74 44.38% 0.34 0.5148 -0.782
All Things Weaken 1894 28.16 42.45% -0.282 0.2544 -0.917
Attenuated Essence 23 27.26 34.78% -0.489 -0.1156 -0.436
Back Against the Wall 2814 29.43 42.4% -0.34 -0.0574 -0.743
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 34 24.38 38.24% -0.405 0.1777 -0.237
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 34.38 37.5% -0.221 0.2465 -0.643
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3915 26.83 40.18% -0.641 -0.014 -0.887
Downward Spiral 9234 33.17 44.92% -0.475 -0.0463 -0.895
Erosion of Will 3927 28.13 38.83% -0.567 0.0069 -0.908
Intensifying Exploitation 26 30.38 50.0% 0.141 0.7059 -0.544
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 615 36.25 75.77% 0.314 -0.1343 0.094
Memory Fades to Dust 9396 32.01 40.44% -0.488 0.0742 -1.095
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1947 27.34 44.74% -0.328 0.0484 -0.9
Promising Farmlands 3830 27.46 40.26% -0.592 0.1008 -0.986
Shattered Fragments of Power 24 29.83 41.67% -0.075 0.244 -0.471
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 28.29 42.86% -0.358 0.3466 -0.391
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 412 37.05 77.67% 0.521 -0.1466 0.223
The Border of Life and Death 2 14.5 0.0% -0.731 -0.7005 -0.42
Thriving Communities 1828 26.9 40.04% -0.034 0.5771 -1.098
Thriving Crops 16 19.06 37.5% -0.413 -0.118 -0.964
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.585
Unnatural Proliferation 1932 28.8 42.13% -0.527 -0.1145 -0.999
Untended Land Crumbles 1897 27.43 42.65% -0.585 -0.1333 -0.843

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.32
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.069
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.278
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.191
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.108
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.274
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.417
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.594
East 54143 49.68% 38.16 62.8% 0.031 0.6448 -0.072
Northeast 27071 50.18% 37.56 61.75% -0.05 0.8414 -0.345
Northwest 17892 49.31% 36.05 64.16% 0.291 0.915 -0.333
Southeast 7003 44.02% 35.03 69.34% 0.149 0.8366 -0.315
Southwest 6144 50.54% 28.47 59.77% -0.158 1.0129 -0.903
West 41608 51.44% 34.93 60.79% -0.258 0.758 -0.291

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2557 0.0% 27.09 69.73% -1.019 -0.0439 -0.635
Not Using Events or Tokens 18320 54.52% 41.61 57.76% 0.272 0.5712 0.06
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4172 18.5% 51.11 87.27% 1.34 0.8237 -0.631
Start of Game Growth 5111 21.4% 49.62 85.97% 0.399 0.0193 1.001
Unlimited Undo 8184 39.5% 39.09 75.86% -0.335 -0.3855 0.783
Using Tokens but Not Events 8409 38.11% 34.01 75.5% 0.541 0.4788 0.066

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24256 21.31 18.0%
II 41621 31.05 64.6%
III 27893 34.72 83.46%
IV 12387 38.0 97.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4365
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22985
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11843
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 870
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1241
Lose: Adversary condition 10830
Win: Sacrifice victory 485
Lose: Scenario condition 2671
Win: Scenario condition 4821
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22726
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1202

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-24 03:32:57 (Pacific Time)