Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3200 50.86% 31.58 56.22% -0.478 -0.3382 -0.804
Dahan Insurrection 4 7031 52.6% 56.01 45.91% 0.142 -0.031 0.212
Despicable Theft 2 249 51.81% 37.42 62.25% -0.699 -0.032 0.515
Elemental Invocation 1 494 64.17% 28.87 48.99% -0.631 0.1 -0.824
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8766 23.01% 46.08 67.49% 0.711 0.0787 0.869
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1778 60.61% 34.49 56.86% -0.203 0.2674 -0.217
Rituals of Terror 3 1609 54.32% 42.13 51.9% -0.792 -0.7802 0.256
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1310 72.98% 37.39 45.11% -0.588 0.3603 0.138
Second Wave 0 3073 53.68% 26.37 63.1% -0.13 -0.0533 -0.207
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 83 66.27% 29.33 43.37% -1.175 -0.6057 -0.337
Ward the Shores 2 1666 57.11% 34.58 48.14% -1.5 -0.2648 -0.351

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3879 29.35 42.43% -0.053 0.2198 -0.818
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2884 30.77 44.42% 0.376 0.4402 -0.769
All Things Weaken 1899 28.13 42.39% -0.292 0.1767 -0.913
Attenuated Essence 29 27.59 37.93% -0.32 -0.0607 -0.462
Back Against the Wall 2818 29.45 42.44% -0.177 0.0046 -0.731
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 39 23.64 35.9% -0.459 0.0048 -0.465
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 31.27 27.27% -0.55 -0.2261 -0.662
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3921 26.82 40.17% -0.703 -0.1582 -0.886
Downward Spiral 9255 33.16 44.94% -0.271 0.0862 -0.887
Erosion of Will 3937 28.12 38.81% -0.392 0.0613 -0.903
Intensifying Exploitation 28 29.64 50.0% 0.184 0.5923 -0.546
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 615 36.25 75.77% 0.663 0.1513 0.1
Memory Fades to Dust 9412 32.0 40.44% -0.331 0.169 -1.09
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1952 27.34 44.72% -0.291 0.0189 -0.898
Promising Farmlands 3839 27.47 40.32% -0.418 0.1681 -0.981
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 28.97 37.93% -0.244 -0.0412 -0.734
Slow Dissolution of Will 33 28.12 42.42% -0.277 0.2842 -0.469
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 414 37.08 77.78% 0.445 -0.2767 0.227
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.67 33.33% -0.202 -0.3108 0.079
Thriving Communities 1837 26.93 40.07% 0.085 0.5918 -1.102
Thriving Crops 18 22.67 44.44% -0.089 0.0281 -0.528
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.58
Unnatural Proliferation 1939 28.82 42.14% -0.554 -0.2361 -0.98
Untended Land Crumbles 1901 27.41 42.66% -0.54 -0.1599 -0.838

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.319
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.069
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.278
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.19
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.109
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.274
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.419
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.595
East 54333 49.63% 38.13 62.74% -0.022 0.5996 -0.079
Northeast 27158 50.17% 37.53 61.71% -0.033 0.8766 -0.342
Northwest 17968 49.25% 36.02 64.1% 0.293 0.966 -0.337
Southeast 7050 43.93% 35.02 69.23% 0.178 0.8745 -0.305
Southwest 6200 50.26% 28.38 59.66% -0.154 1.0467 -0.907
West 41816 51.35% 34.88 60.73% -0.254 0.7292 -0.292

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2563 0.0% 27.08 69.72% -0.731 0.1757 -0.626
Not Using Events or Tokens 18360 54.5% 41.58 57.75% 0.193 0.5093 0.064
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4197 18.43% 51.17 87.23% 1.341 0.7803 -0.635
Start of Game Growth 5136 21.32% 49.69 85.96% 0.348 0.0361 1.008
Unlimited Undo 8244 39.3% 39.05 75.67% -0.392 -0.4181 0.775
Using Tokens but Not Events 8470 38.04% 34.01 75.38% 0.421 0.3555 0.071

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24421 21.09 17.95%
II 41735 31.04 64.6%
III 27965 34.73 83.47%
IV 12434 38.01 97.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4381
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22179
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23048
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11887
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 990
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1247
Lose: Adversary condition 10850
Win: Sacrifice victory 486
Lose: Scenario condition 2688
Win: Scenario condition 4828
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22767
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1204

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)