Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3220 50.66% 31.46 56.09% -0.651 -0.5051 -0.805
Dahan Insurrection 4 7109 52.53% 55.77 45.7% 0.15 -0.102 0.214
Despicable Theft 2 259 50.58% 36.61 61.0% -0.663 0.1067 0.549
Elemental Invocation 1 496 64.11% 28.88 48.99% -0.634 0.1231 -0.695
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9016 23.02% 45.93 66.81% 0.765 0.1385 0.84
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1792 60.69% 34.36 56.64% -0.114 0.4072 -0.224
Rituals of Terror 3 1617 54.17% 42.06 51.89% -0.727 -0.6768 0.255
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1319 72.71% 37.14 44.81% -0.981 0.0261 0.116
Second Wave 0 3076 53.66% 26.36 63.04% -0.077 -0.0182 -0.207
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 94 62.77% 28.48 41.49% -1.128 -0.6015 -0.409
Ward the Shores 2 1672 56.96% 34.49 48.03% -1.372 -0.2218 -0.342

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3895 29.35 42.39% -0.011 0.1785 -0.798
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2889 30.75 44.41% 0.497 0.4433 -0.755
All Things Weaken 1912 28.06 42.21% -0.251 0.1495 -0.9
Attenuated Essence 44 27.0 38.64% -0.09 0.0319 -0.594
Back Against the Wall 2825 29.45 42.51% 0.27 0.3582 -0.723
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 47 23.28 31.91% -0.393 -0.0854 -0.624
Burn Brightest Before the End 24 30.33 29.17% -0.382 -0.1614 -0.63
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3935 26.79 40.1% -0.59 -0.1565 -0.871
Downward Spiral 9318 33.15 44.82% -0.186 0.0755 -0.86
Erosion of Will 3945 28.11 38.78% -0.322 0.0111 -0.893
Intensifying Exploitation 40 27.77 40.0% 0.088 0.4119 -0.529
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 621 36.04 75.36% 0.42 -0.1092 0.092
Memory Fades to Dust 9470 31.98 40.38% -0.182 0.2226 -1.054
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1961 27.37 44.67% -0.266 -0.0227 -0.869
Promising Farmlands 3851 27.48 40.38% -0.121 0.389 -0.973
Shattered Fragments of Power 30 29.03 40.0% 0.008 0.0966 -0.719
Slow Dissolution of Will 39 27.18 38.46% -0.197 0.2478 -0.632
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 415 37.15 77.83% 0.623 -0.0152 0.295
The Border of Life and Death 5 29.0 40.0% -0.327 -0.6586 0.115
Thriving Communities 1846 26.9 39.92% 0.238 0.6173 -1.085
Thriving Crops 20 21.5 40.0% -0.057 -0.0852 -0.61
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.569
Unnatural Proliferation 1948 28.8 42.04% -0.622 -0.4044 -0.937
Untended Land Crumbles 1911 27.43 42.8% -0.238 0.0445 -0.821

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.317
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.074
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.28
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.193
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.107
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.279
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.427
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.596
East 54847 49.45% 38.05 62.54% 0.0 0.6425 -0.07
Northeast 27464 49.94% 37.48 61.5% 0.028 0.831 -0.35
Northwest 18089 49.2% 35.95 63.88% 0.191 0.9455 -0.342
Southeast 7127 43.7% 34.89 68.86% 0.101 0.8394 -0.316
Southwest 6273 50.06% 28.28 59.43% -0.08 1.0035 -0.91
West 42135 51.27% 34.79 60.52% -0.234 0.7139 -0.297

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2566 0.0% 27.05 69.64% -0.838 -0.0108 -0.557
Not Using Events or Tokens 18594 54.27% 41.5 57.48% 0.174 0.5064 0.026
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4237 18.29% 51.2 87.07% 1.465 0.8862 -0.631
Start of Game Growth 5183 21.17% 49.69 85.78% 0.33 0.0561 1.043
Unlimited Undo 8368 38.89% 38.91 75.13% -0.456 -0.4661 0.73
Using Tokens but Not Events 8592 37.73% 33.97 74.97% 0.403 0.3342 -0.005

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24815 20.77 17.75%
II 41997 31.02 64.55%
III 28085 34.74 83.45%
IV 12491 38.04 97.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4403
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22275
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11939
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1324
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1254
Lose: Adversary condition 10899
Win: Sacrifice victory 487
Lose: Scenario condition 2712
Win: Scenario condition 4850
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22861
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1209

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-04 02:47:44 (Pacific Time)