Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3129 51.47% 32.07 57.02% -0.159 0.1796 -0.805
Dahan Insurrection 4 6908 52.77% 56.35 45.95% -0.187 -0.4272 0.206
Despicable Theft 2 230 54.78% 39.42 65.65% -0.561 0.0382 0.584
Elemental Invocation 1 458 65.72% 30.09 51.75% -0.56 0.2719 -0.808
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8382 23.01% 46.24 68.19% 0.295 -0.0714 0.876
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1740 61.3% 34.79 57.24% -0.651 -0.1838 -0.21
Rituals of Terror 3 1568 54.88% 42.89 52.81% 0.056 -0.2174 0.262
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1293 73.47% 37.62 45.24% -0.462 0.233 0.117
Second Wave 0 3040 53.94% 26.44 63.09% -1.175 -0.9877 -0.186
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 68 70.59% 32.78 48.53% -1.325 -0.7184 -0.137
Ward the Shores 2 1628 57.95% 35.13 48.89% -1.134 -0.2739 -0.335

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3836 29.39 42.49% -0.499 0.4729 -0.847
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2855 30.73 44.41% -0.276 0.5097 -0.831
All Things Weaken 1859 28.06 42.55% -0.847 0.2413 -0.962
Attenuated Essence 8 30.5 37.5% -0.877 0.0098 -0.182
Back Against the Wall 2796 29.46 42.42% -0.65 0.1787 -0.752
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 15 36.93 66.67% 0.101 1.3516 0.009
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 43.67 66.67% -0.055 0.8857 0.476
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3874 26.89 40.32% -0.668 0.451 -0.914
Downward Spiral 9131 33.21 44.88% -0.918 0.045 -0.926
Erosion of Will 3896 28.12 38.83% -1.081 0.0348 -0.942
Intensifying Exploitation 7 25.57 57.14% -0.281 0.7934 -0.216
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 604 36.27 75.99% -0.096 -0.2124 0.056
Memory Fades to Dust 9306 32.08 40.4% -0.797 0.3154 -1.123
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1924 27.36 44.91% -0.823 0.1327 -0.946
Promising Farmlands 3792 27.53 40.37% -0.661 0.4745 -1.002
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 26.33 44.44% -1.001 -0.079
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 34.63 37.5% -0.736 0.5335 -0.088
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 407 37.14 78.13% 0.345 0.0571 0.245
Thriving Communities 1786 26.84 39.81% -0.854 0.2929 -1.159
Thriving Crops 9 24.22 55.56% -0.438 0.4382 -0.253
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.612
Unnatural Proliferation 1904 28.88 42.49% -0.725 0.2405 -1.031
Untended Land Crumbles 1864 27.51 42.92% -0.579 0.4532 -0.858

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.319
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.066
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.277
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.188
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.105
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.272
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.415
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.587
East 53026 49.92% 38.4 63.19% 0.074 0.7346 -0.057
Northeast 26543 50.45% 37.81 62.1% -0.069 0.7951 -0.342
Northwest 17595 49.58% 36.22 64.45% 0.205 0.791 -0.328
Southeast 6787 44.46% 35.24 70.13% 0.159 0.8504 -0.307
Southwest 5949 51.04% 28.71 60.45% -0.272 0.9702 -0.931
West 40844 51.77% 35.13 61.15% -0.089 0.9271 -0.271

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2528 0.0% 27.18 70.17% -0.738 0.7504 -0.694
Not Using Events or Tokens 18061 54.68% 41.8 57.85% 0.023 0.2141 0.064
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4084 18.43% 51.07 87.49% 0.953 0.2373 -0.533
Start of Game Growth 5017 21.39% 49.6 86.17% 0.225 -0.2467 0.977
Unlimited Undo 7993 40.02% 39.22 76.37% -0.02 -0.2714 0.803
Using Tokens but Not Events 8237 38.44% 34.0 75.74% 0.431 0.4322 0.09

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23393 22.19 18.4%
II 41053 31.1 64.63%
III 27575 34.71 83.44%
IV 12255 37.97 97.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4302
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21856
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22676
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11720
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 247
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1230
Lose: Adversary condition 10696
Win: Sacrifice victory 482
Lose: Scenario condition 2606
Win: Scenario condition 4768
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22504
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1189

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)