Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3149 51.27% 31.94 56.75% -0.213 0.0772 -0.795
Dahan Insurrection 4 6956 52.59% 56.16 45.87% 0.016 -0.163 0.21
Despicable Theft 2 233 54.08% 38.91 64.81% -0.662 -0.0068 0.587
Elemental Invocation 1 465 64.95% 29.64 50.97% -0.665 0.161 -0.807
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8494 23.06% 46.15 68.0% 0.501 0.0013 0.882
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1748 61.25% 34.69 57.15% -0.567 -0.1576 -0.215
Rituals of Terror 3 1577 54.69% 42.66 52.5% -0.727 -0.8429 0.271
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1296 73.38% 37.57 45.22% -0.718 0.0567 0.121
Second Wave 0 3051 53.88% 26.4 63.03% -1.004 -0.8874 -0.184
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 73 71.23% 32.05 47.95% -1.034 -0.5413 -0.228
Ward the Shores 2 1637 57.88% 35.04 48.75% -1.086 -0.1722 -0.332

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3852 29.39 42.52% -0.081 0.5838 -0.825
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2864 30.76 44.45% 0.204 0.6681 -0.802
All Things Weaken 1870 28.1 42.57% -0.527 0.2857 -0.95
Attenuated Essence 16 29.81 37.5% -0.675 -0.0296 -0.636
Back Against the Wall 2801 29.47 42.45% -0.368 0.1788 -0.738
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 29.55 55.0% -0.145 0.7743 0.022
Burn Brightest Before the End 10 38.4 50.0% -0.101 0.6909 0.167
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3885 26.89 40.31% -0.484 0.3723 -0.907
Downward Spiral 9169 33.19 44.87% -0.611 0.0683 -0.909
Erosion of Will 3905 28.12 38.85% -0.688 0.1187 -0.927
Intensifying Exploitation 10 25.2 40.0% -0.303 0.6413 -0.626
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 609 36.24 75.86% 0.014 -0.2396 0.042
Memory Fades to Dust 9333 32.05 40.37% -0.578 0.2489 -1.109
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1930 27.36 44.87% -0.47 0.1684 -0.918
Promising Farmlands 3807 27.5 40.32% -0.749 0.1467 -0.993
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 29.53 46.67% -0.367 0.2808 -0.162
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 28.65 40.0% -0.726 0.2566 -0.36
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 409 37.03 78.0% 0.398 -0.0936 0.254
The Border of Life and Death 2 14.5 0.0% -0.747 -0.5406 -0.422
Thriving Communities 1806 26.84 39.81% -0.347 0.5345 -1.148
Thriving Crops 11 19.82 45.45% -0.437 0.1154 -0.572
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.597
Unnatural Proliferation 1916 28.83 42.22% -0.563 0.1041 -1.034
Untended Land Crumbles 1880 27.45 42.71% -0.616 0.1164 -0.858

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.318
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.066
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.277
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.188
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.107
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.272
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.415
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.587
East 53444 49.84% 38.29 62.99% -0.032 0.7491 -0.067
Northeast 26741 50.35% 37.7 61.91% -0.123 0.8313 -0.346
Northwest 17695 49.47% 36.16 64.36% 0.311 0.9214 -0.333
Southeast 6850 44.33% 35.19 69.99% 0.268 0.938 -0.292
Southwest 6018 50.82% 28.63 60.25% -0.244 1.0395 -0.925
West 41113 51.63% 35.06 61.04% -0.172 0.9314 -0.277

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2535 0.0% 27.14 69.98% -0.759 0.4429 -0.683
Not Using Events or Tokens 18155 54.59% 41.71 57.76% 0.101 0.3447 0.064
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4105 18.55% 51.07 87.45% 0.995 0.4177 -0.541
Start of Game Growth 5042 21.46% 49.59 86.12% 0.368 -0.091 0.988
Unlimited Undo 8050 39.92% 39.18 76.21% -0.023 -0.201 0.8
Using Tokens but Not Events 8303 38.32% 33.97 75.62% 0.533 0.4935 0.08

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23721 21.84 18.25%
II 41261 31.08 64.62%
III 27683 34.71 83.43%
IV 12298 37.98 97.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4327
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21941
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22787
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11761
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 484
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1236
Lose: Adversary condition 10749
Win: Sacrifice victory 482
Lose: Scenario condition 2627
Win: Scenario condition 4787
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22591
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1191

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)