Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3208 50.79% 31.53 56.14% -0.591 -0.4412 -0.802
Dahan Insurrection 4 7038 52.57% 55.99 45.92% 0.179 -0.0333 0.221
Despicable Theft 2 251 51.79% 37.14 61.75% -0.872 -0.1553 0.521
Elemental Invocation 1 495 64.04% 28.81 48.89% -0.688 0.063 -0.815
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8827 23.0% 46.04 67.29% 0.688 0.0794 0.865
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1780 60.6% 34.46 56.8% -0.214 0.2855 -0.213
Rituals of Terror 3 1612 54.28% 42.1 51.86% -0.96 -0.8525 0.259
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1313 72.81% 37.31 45.01% -0.682 0.3716 0.131
Second Wave 0 3074 53.67% 26.36 63.08% -0.128 -0.0483 -0.207
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 87 65.52% 29.16 42.53% -1.282 -0.7005 -0.371
Ward the Shores 2 1666 57.11% 34.58 48.14% -1.427 -0.2261 -0.345

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3885 29.34 42.42% -0.044 0.2223 -0.817
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2887 30.76 44.44% 0.386 0.393 -0.765
All Things Weaken 1905 28.09 42.26% -0.303 0.1326 -0.911
Attenuated Essence 36 28.47 38.89% -0.188 0.0027 -0.505
Back Against the Wall 2820 29.45 42.45% -0.156 -0.0149 -0.731
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 43 23.72 34.88% -0.384 0.0002 -0.526
Burn Brightest Before the End 24 30.33 29.17% -0.494 -0.2004 -0.641
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3926 26.81 40.12% -0.65 -0.1475 -0.886
Downward Spiral 9268 33.14 44.91% -0.236 0.0934 -0.884
Erosion of Will 3939 28.12 38.82% -0.324 0.0608 -0.9
Intensifying Exploitation 33 27.76 42.42% 0.0 0.3678 -0.772
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 617 36.25 75.85% 0.833 0.314 0.101
Memory Fades to Dust 9420 31.99 40.44% -0.306 0.1598 -1.087
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1953 27.33 44.7% -0.31 -0.0197 -0.894
Promising Farmlands 3840 27.47 40.31% -0.398 0.1706 -0.98
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 28.97 37.93% -0.188 -0.0347 -0.725
Slow Dissolution of Will 36 27.08 38.89% -0.321 0.1823 -0.543
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 414 37.08 77.78% 0.494 -0.1593 0.23
The Border of Life and Death 3 36.67 33.33% -0.215 -0.3939 0.083
Thriving Communities 1841 26.92 39.98% 0.093 0.5534 -1.099
Thriving Crops 18 22.67 44.44% -0.047 0.0004 -0.523
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.577
Unnatural Proliferation 1943 28.86 42.15% -0.422 -0.1309 -0.952
Untended Land Crumbles 1902 27.41 42.69% -0.46 -0.1395 -0.832

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.319
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.069
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.278
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.19
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.107
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.275
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.422
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.596
East 54476 49.58% 38.1 62.68% -0.038 0.5577 -0.077
Northeast 27240 50.11% 37.51 61.65% -0.046 0.8132 -0.347
Northwest 18011 49.22% 35.98 64.03% 0.25 0.9483 -0.336
Southeast 7075 43.84% 34.99 69.12% 0.212 0.8711 -0.305
Southwest 6224 50.19% 28.34 59.58% -0.135 1.014 -0.91
West 41914 51.32% 34.85 60.68% -0.234 0.706 -0.289

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2564 0.0% 27.07 69.7% -0.755 0.1262 -0.613
Not Using Events or Tokens 18406 54.43% 41.57 57.71% 0.215 0.5409 0.052
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4207 18.38% 51.22 87.24% 1.499 0.9579 -0.632
Start of Game Growth 5150 21.28% 49.71 85.94% 0.254 -0.065 1.012
Unlimited Undo 8273 39.17% 39.02 75.56% -0.389 -0.4023 0.777
Using Tokens but Not Events 8500 37.97% 34.02 75.33% 0.451 0.3936 0.07

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24536 20.97 17.91%
II 41800 31.03 64.58%
III 28002 34.74 83.46%
IV 12458 38.02 97.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4392
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23080
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11908
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1073
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1250
Lose: Adversary condition 10866
Win: Sacrifice victory 486
Lose: Scenario condition 2698
Win: Scenario condition 4832
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22798
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1205

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)