Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 920 44.13% 33.62 -0.545 75.0% -0.426 -0.1363
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 809 51.82% 34.54 0.394 66.13% -0.75 -0.3357
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 647 56.52% 39.34 2.404 60.74% -1.186 -0.3033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 638 63.48% 39.37 2.341 54.55% -1.436 -0.1934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 229 77.29% 38.24 3.144 41.05% -1.721 -0.2241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 332 87.95% 30.72 -0.435 13.25% -2.917 -0.9776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 637 74.57% 39.34 3.161 29.83% -2.562 -0.5194
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3848 40.97% 32.04 -1.457 79.11% -0.101 -0.0594
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2926 46.58% 34.23 -0.056 74.33% -0.29 -0.3085
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2715 50.78% 42.46 4.207 76.46% -0.15 -0.1364
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2066 50.44% 49.43 7.209 73.67% -0.393 -0.1095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1530 53.11% 52.21 8.572 70.2% -0.573 -0.2135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1002 64.07% 54.4 9.788 59.38% -0.965 -0.1402
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3751 79.63% 54.08 7.501 38.87% -1.593 -0.3534
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3453 42.07% 31.04 -1.918 75.3% -0.349 -0.0194
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2605 48.78% 37.19 1.513 71.06% -0.491 0.0256
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2223 59.98% 34.57 0.443 55.2% -1.196 -0.223
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1565 62.2% 38.89 2.255 48.37% -1.693 -0.1127
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1073 63.65% 39.13 2.405 38.49% -2.147 -0.6522
The Kingdom of England 5 9 923 72.67% 41.18 3.936 32.61% -2.26 -0.1901
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4750 60.49% 46.83 4.037 25.43% -3.094 -0.8498
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2597 43.95% 32.57 -1.013 66.46% -0.874 -0.3628
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2079 55.98% 33.15 -0.359 58.73% -1.052 -0.1496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1178 38.88% 34.07 -0.303 35.91% -2.767 -0.6257
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 972 42.95% 34.85 -0.122 24.59% -3.428 -1.2298
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 799 41.05% 36.06 0.412 21.03% -3.69 -1.5289
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 592 45.44% 39.76 2.405 22.13% -3.393 -1.5756
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2676 38.07% 44.54 3.438 22.57% -3.685 -1.5937
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2974 43.3% 30.99 -1.967 77.14% -0.157 -0.0688
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2379 46.51% 34.67 -0.056 73.85% -0.304 -0.2689
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2295 56.94% 34.37 0.189 66.8% -0.567 -0.3298
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1678 60.64% 41.98 3.994 66.81% -0.571 -0.2802
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1348 68.1% 40.42 3.162 53.64% -1.15 -0.3687
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 847 63.75% 42.35 4.049 51.12% -1.377 -0.2087
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1466 68.96% 43.5 4.484 48.09% -1.524 -0.4015
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 764 38.63% 32.01 -1.543 81.54% -0.066 -0.1543
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 556 56.76% 33.58 -0.263 62.05% -0.988 -0.2093
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 466 53.65% 38.04 2.17 66.74% -0.831 -0.4196
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 455 68.57% 37.23 1.85 47.69% -1.654 -0.4101
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 168 62.5% 42.3 4.708 54.17% -1.55 -0.4416
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 193 76.17% 40.48 3.842 31.09% -2.433 -0.4485
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 614 80.46% 47.9 7.514 32.25% -2.333 -0.4611

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3300 51.74% 32.55 -1.774 57.03% -0.544 0.0214
Dahan Insurrection 4 7604 55.24% 56.25 8.279 43.42% -0.357 0.0436
Despicable Theft 2 101 53.47% 38.16 2.098 65.35% -0.273 0.0009
Elemental Invocation 1 255 67.84% 29.68 -2.196 51.76% -0.614 -0.1111
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7911 23.3% 45.22 4.091 69.5% -0.06 0.3051
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1879 61.71% 34.93 0.479 56.68% -0.301 0.1458
Rituals of Terror 3 1729 55.56% 42.55 3.684 51.13% -0.612 0.0331
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1380 74.2% 37.5 2.302 44.49% -0.501 0.1456
Second Wave 0 2929 57.08% 26.52 -3.905 59.58% -0.898 -0.468
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 -8.977 0.0% -0.63 0.8434
Ward the Shores 2 1758 56.96% 35.71 0.638 50.0% -0.916 0.1156

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3191 29.35 -4.104 41.62% -2.14 -0.0706
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2341 30.81 -3.344 43.74% -1.991 -0.0779
All Things Weaken 1309 27.98 -4.374 42.7% -2.227 -0.0676
Back Against the Wall 2290 29.62 -3.856 41.35% -2.131 -0.0439
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3206 26.79 -5.404 39.3% -2.243 -0.0205
Downward Spiral 7888 33.5 -3.689 44.28% -1.893 0.1282
Erosion of Will 3224 28.25 -4.684 38.46% -2.291 -0.0837
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 417 36.23 -0.392 76.5% -0.604 0.0744
Memory Fades to Dust 8018 32.38 -4.313 39.91% -2.122 0.0925
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1331 26.93 -4.929 43.73% -2.22 -0.1987
Promising Farmlands 3142 27.55 -5.02 39.88% -2.196 0.0123
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 272 37.11 0.059 77.57% -0.527 -0.1152
Thriving Communities 1276 26.51 -5.27 38.64% -2.356 -0.2682
Tipping Point 1652 29.0 -4.425 41.34% -1.997 0.228
Unnatural Proliferation 1339 28.53 -4.164 41.0% -2.269 -0.1881
Untended Land Crumbles 1341 27.02 -4.885 42.21% -2.217 -0.115

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1306 54.41% 25.4 -4.527 66.31% -0.085 -0.7724
B 1329 50.25% 28.05 -3.455 69.75% 0.156 -0.6282
C 1811 48.58% 29.22 -2.714 76.37% 0.651 -0.3616
D 1227 47.01% 27.15 -3.936 70.01% -0.019 -0.7961
E 792 50.26% 32.37 -1.794 69.32% 0.211 -0.6832
F 975 49.89% 29.8 -2.657 69.23% 0.303 -0.5376
G 759 50.63% 28.77 -3.124 69.43% 0.148 -0.6838
H 795 45.15% 30.53 -2.499 75.85% 0.333 -0.5061
East 16622 51.23% 40.72 1.904 62.17% -0.06 -0.6361
Northeast 21837 51.44% 37.98 0.69 60.76% -0.139 -0.6633
Northwest 14495 49.18% 36.5 0.362 64.33% -0.07 -0.6652
Southeast 4368 43.65% 35.83 0.019 71.38% 0.035 -0.5943
Southwest 4102 52.74% 28.85 -3.608 58.61% -0.511 -0.7101
West 14544 54.55% 36.39 0.102 57.25% -0.363 -0.6898

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2192 0.0% 27.3 -5.59 70.3% -2.104 -0.0507
Not Using Events or Tokens 15868 55.46% 41.78 1.773 57.05% -0.244 -0.0296
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3417 16.6% 52.87 5.558 88.21% 1.03 0.3442
Start of Game Growth 4099 19.28% 51.39 4.98 86.92% 0.629 0.1601
Unlimited Undo 6267 40.51% 40.07 1.449 76.4% 0.484 0.0606
Using Tokens but Not Events 6682 38.26% 34.44 -0.729 76.47% 0.094 0.0432

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 19257 22.37 18.6%
II 33888 30.88 64.2%
III 22125 34.39 83.02%
IV 9691 37.55 97.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2871
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14379
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14795
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7638
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1058
Lose: Adversary condition 8877
Win: Sacrifice victory 379
Lose: Scenario condition 2032
Win: Scenario condition 4174
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18797
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1035

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)