Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3183 50.91% 31.68 56.36% -0.381 -0.1529 -0.811
Dahan Insurrection 4 6991 52.63% 56.09 45.9% -0.032 -0.2099 0.216
Despicable Theft 2 240 52.92% 38.17 63.75% -0.749 -0.0321 0.539
Elemental Invocation 1 481 64.66% 29.32 49.69% -0.771 -0.0264 -0.772
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8591 23.06% 46.11 67.86% 0.682 0.1056 0.895
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1764 60.98% 34.58 56.97% -0.403 0.1151 -0.217
Rituals of Terror 3 1587 54.44% 42.48 52.3% -0.909 -0.9311 0.264
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1304 73.08% 37.47 45.17% -0.785 0.1689 0.121
Second Wave 0 3056 53.92% 26.4 63.02% -0.606 -0.5053 -0.187
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 78 66.67% 30.0 44.87% -1.287 -0.678 -0.352
Ward the Shores 2 1654 57.4% 34.8 48.49% -1.332 -0.2669 -0.335

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3868 29.36 42.48% 0.04 0.4983 -0.823
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2872 30.76 44.43% 0.254 0.54 -0.781
All Things Weaken 1880 28.04 42.39% -0.485 0.1534 -0.934
Attenuated Essence 19 27.84 36.84% -0.529 -0.0566 -0.687
Back Against the Wall 2808 29.45 42.45% -0.139 0.2465 -0.745
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 32 23.5 37.5% -0.579 0.1272 -0.168
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 35.38 46.15% -0.117 0.4985 -0.18
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3902 26.83 40.21% -0.585 0.1072 -0.889
Downward Spiral 9208 33.18 44.91% -0.424 0.0893 -0.898
Erosion of Will 3919 28.13 38.86% -0.522 0.1404 -0.92
Intensifying Exploitation 17 26.18 47.06% 0.012 0.698 -0.863
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 613 36.29 75.86% 0.309 -0.0323 0.089
Memory Fades to Dust 9374 32.03 40.43% -0.425 0.2168 -1.098
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1943 27.36 44.78% -0.37 0.1084 -0.908
Promising Farmlands 3820 27.47 40.31% -0.566 0.2041 -0.987
Shattered Fragments of Power 17 28.82 47.06% -0.097 0.3855 -0.323
Slow Dissolution of Will 24 28.17 41.67% -0.504 0.2805 -0.106
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 411 37.0 77.62% 0.274 -0.3919 0.214
The Border of Life and Death 2 14.5 0.0% -0.756 -0.6138 -0.421
Thriving Communities 1820 26.84 39.84% -0.218 0.4652 -1.103
Thriving Crops 13 16.77 38.46% -0.49 -0.0569 -0.561
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.587
Unnatural Proliferation 1923 28.81 42.23% -0.619 -0.1273 -1.01
Untended Land Crumbles 1892 27.42 42.65% -0.64 -0.0857 -0.846

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.317
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.064
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.276
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.189
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.104
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.271
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.414
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.588
East 53843 49.75% 38.2 62.87% -0.046 0.6783 -0.076
Northeast 26944 50.26% 37.6 61.8% -0.059 0.8466 -0.35
Northwest 17817 49.34% 36.08 64.25% 0.306 0.9389 -0.332
Southeast 6926 44.12% 35.11 69.74% 0.223 0.9025 -0.276
Southwest 6103 50.7% 28.48 59.87% -0.193 1.0793 -0.906
West 41425 51.5% 34.96 60.88% -0.223 0.8239 -0.29

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2550 0.0% 27.11 69.88% -0.791 0.2517 -0.664
Not Using Events or Tokens 18266 54.52% 41.65 57.79% 0.272 0.554 0.06
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4135 18.51% 51.03 87.38% 1.152 0.6372 -0.568
Start of Game Growth 5074 21.42% 49.55 86.05% 0.406 0.0249 0.995
Unlimited Undo 8129 39.68% 39.05 75.91% -0.309 -0.4028 0.789
Using Tokens but Not Events 8353 38.19% 33.94 75.57% 0.576 0.5289 0.075

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24043 21.53 18.09%
II 41474 31.06 64.6%
III 27807 34.72 83.44%
IV 12350 37.99 97.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4347
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22041
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22901
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11812
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 750
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1238
Lose: Adversary condition 10792
Win: Sacrifice victory 483
Lose: Scenario condition 2642
Win: Scenario condition 4809
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22662
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1197

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-20 14:08:36 (Pacific Time)