Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 855 44.91% 33.58 -0.676 74.15% -0.462 -0.1845
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 746 51.02% 34.77 0.389 66.62% -0.737 -0.3427
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 592 55.86% 39.77 2.454 61.82% -1.155 -0.2768
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 582 62.54% 40.33 2.579 57.04% -1.373 -0.1212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 208 78.37% 38.72 3.288 41.35% -1.656 -0.1341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 315 88.57% 30.58 -0.57 13.02% -2.888 -0.9105
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 555 73.15% 40.76 3.61 31.71% -2.51 -0.4606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3686 41.13% 32.03 -1.542 78.76% -0.127 -0.086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2773 46.62% 34.22 -0.138 73.96% -0.317 -0.3461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2596 50.48% 42.59 4.181 76.66% -0.155 -0.1505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1966 50.66% 49.27 7.081 73.8% -0.385 -0.0961
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1457 53.3% 51.82 8.341 69.8% -0.604 -0.2367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 963 64.07% 54.26 9.651 59.19% -0.989 -0.1598
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3623 79.58% 54.05 7.435 38.72% -1.61 -0.369
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3299 42.07% 31.12 -1.953 75.17% -0.357 -0.025
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2504 48.35% 37.36 1.515 71.53% -0.48 0.0236
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2128 60.11% 34.65 0.414 55.36% -1.191 -0.2231
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1477 61.96% 39.2 2.242 48.82% -1.691 -0.1124
The Kingdom of England 4 7 992 63.31% 39.48 2.414 38.61% -2.154 -0.6564
The Kingdom of England 5 9 870 73.19% 41.22 3.969 32.87% -2.229 -0.1624
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4407 60.24% 47.17 4.049 25.62% -3.087 -0.8323
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2482 44.18% 32.57 -1.081 66.36% -0.876 -0.3609
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1997 56.15% 33.27 -0.377 59.04% -1.038 -0.1423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1146 38.39% 34.14 -0.379 35.86% -2.778 -0.6406
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 952 43.43% 34.84 -0.199 24.47% -3.426 -1.2409
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 761 40.34% 36.02 0.232 20.37% -3.725 -1.5782
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 568 44.01% 40.19 2.487 22.71% -3.374 -1.5536
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2598 37.55% 44.71 3.383 22.67% -3.698 -1.5916
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2831 43.43% 31.06 -2.009 77.18% -0.157 -0.0718
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2284 46.54% 34.76 -0.095 73.91% -0.308 -0.287
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2217 56.96% 34.49 0.16 66.94% -0.57 -0.3385
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1608 60.05% 42.25 3.986 67.04% -0.578 -0.2917
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1296 67.59% 40.76 3.19 54.24% -1.142 -0.3646
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 818 63.08% 42.67 4.113 51.83% -1.369 -0.2116
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1405 68.79% 43.6 4.439 48.26% -1.533 -0.4014
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 667 38.25% 32.31 -1.525 81.71% -0.053 -0.1594
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 499 56.02% 33.85 -0.239 62.32% -0.992 -0.2486
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 435 55.17% 37.7 1.95 65.75% -0.85 -0.4186
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 404 67.33% 38.33 2.246 50.25% -1.567 -0.3176
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 154 61.04% 42.36 4.59 53.9% -1.588 -0.4613
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 181 76.24% 40.32 3.718 30.94% -2.436 -0.4174
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 593 80.78% 47.46 7.227 31.7% -2.397 -0.4919

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3135 51.27% 32.53 -1.866 57.26% -0.548 0.0248
Dahan Insurrection 4 7299 55.07% 56.1 8.182 43.31% -0.352 0.0476
Despicable Theft 2 64 46.88% 40.2 2.848 70.31% -0.179 0.104
Elemental Invocation 1 187 65.78% 31.01 -1.667 57.22% -0.347 0.093
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7614 23.19% 45.34 4.04 69.62% -0.058 0.3083
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1807 61.74% 35.11 0.506 57.11% -0.284 0.1568
Rituals of Terror 3 1647 54.74% 43.01 3.839 51.49% -0.578 0.0662
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1341 74.12% 37.52 2.26 44.44% -0.506 0.136
Second Wave 0 2810 56.96% 26.74 -3.897 59.93% -0.881 -0.4531
Ward the Shores 2 1718 56.78% 35.87 0.653 50.12% -0.905 0.1325

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3046 29.67 -4.041 42.15% -2.112 -0.0386
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2221 30.87 -3.37 44.03% -1.972 -0.0532
All Things Weaken 1174 28.3 -4.319 43.02% -2.209 -0.0503
Back Against the Wall 2182 29.6 -3.939 41.11% -2.137 -0.0434
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3035 26.96 -5.397 39.6% -2.22 0.0048
Downward Spiral 7556 33.65 -3.654 44.53% -1.863 0.1578
Erosion of Will 3062 28.52 -4.666 38.54% -2.278 -0.0689
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 371 36.87 -0.208 76.55% -0.614 0.0788
Memory Fades to Dust 7684 32.43 -4.328 40.06% -2.106 0.1124
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1205 27.12 -4.931 44.23% -2.198 -0.1766
Promising Farmlands 2970 27.64 -5.053 39.87% -2.189 0.0251
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 242 37.35 0.144 78.93% -0.463 -0.0523
Thriving Communities 1149 26.82 -5.234 38.99% -2.351 -0.2582
Tipping Point 1647 29.02 -4.475 41.29% -1.992 0.2335
Unnatural Proliferation 1217 28.81 -4.108 41.74% -2.252 -0.1627
Untended Land Crumbles 1193 27.28 -4.847 42.58% -2.197 -0.0917

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1173 54.14% 25.43 -4.603 66.5% -0.096 -1.2085
B 1172 50.47% 28.26 -3.438 69.54% 0.164 -1.0441
C 1615 47.16% 29.67 -2.635 77.65% 0.721 -0.7184
D 1101 47.98% 27.14 -4.034 69.66% -0.034 -1.2354
E 697 49.11% 32.87 -1.709 70.3% 0.225 -1.0869
F 839 50.19% 30.34 -2.496 69.73% 0.36 -0.9056
G 672 51.5% 28.68 -3.25 69.49% 0.126 -1.1309
H 697 43.66% 30.9 -2.462 76.9% 0.356 -0.9099
East 16073 51.31% 40.82 1.857 62.09% -0.077 -1.0581
Northeast 20701 51.19% 38.11 0.665 60.97% -0.155 -1.0859
Northwest 13956 49.16% 36.63 0.336 64.24% -0.086 -1.0859
Southeast 4048 43.89% 35.97 -0.045 71.22% -0.001 -1.0267
Southwest 3705 52.23% 29.22 -3.557 59.6% -0.515 -1.1348
West 13941 54.59% 36.27 -0.021 57.03% -0.388 -1.113

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1995 0.0% 27.36 -5.768 69.67% -2.153 -0.0988
Not Using Events or Tokens 15140 55.39% 41.85 1.743 56.88% -0.252 -0.0339
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3247 15.42% 53.44 5.66 88.94% 1.053 0.3589
Start of Game Growth 3878 18.14% 52.03 5.116 87.6% 0.668 0.2054
Unlimited Undo 5732 40.73% 40.72 1.584 76.12% 0.497 0.0764
Using Tokens but Not Events 6229 38.77% 34.72 -0.725 75.89% 0.071 0.019

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 18176 22.34 18.48%
II 32119 30.81 64.22%
III 20950 34.31 83.05%
IV 9144 37.5 97.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2648
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13451
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13794
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7113
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1015
Lose: Adversary condition 8381
Win: Sacrifice victory 354
Lose: Scenario condition 1953
Win: Scenario condition 4016
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17754
Lose: Spirit destroyed 984

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)