Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3262 50.53% 31.21 55.64% -0.815 -0.6369 -0.807
Dahan Insurrection 4 7208 52.57% 55.52 45.41% 0.104 -0.2903 0.206
Despicable Theft 2 267 49.44% 35.88 59.93% -0.684 0.1117 0.562
Elemental Invocation 1 510 62.94% 28.19 47.84% -1.096 -0.3776 -0.706
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9207 23.04% 45.86 66.46% 0.7 0.0598 0.839
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1805 60.42% 34.25 56.51% -0.223 0.4144 -0.217
Rituals of Terror 3 1627 54.15% 41.91 51.69% -1.103 -0.9513 0.264
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1325 72.45% 37.07 44.75% -0.859 0.2211 0.121
Second Wave 0 3086 53.59% 26.35 62.99% 0.03 0.097 -0.201
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 104 60.58% 27.57 40.38% -0.805 -0.1714 -0.517
Ward the Shores 2 1684 56.67% 34.35 47.92% -1.033 0.0569 -0.331

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3918 29.3 42.24% -0.218 0.0126 -0.791
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2900 30.77 44.45% 0.318 0.2593 -0.716
All Things Weaken 1924 28.12 42.31% 0.074 0.4512 -0.861
Attenuated Essence 52 27.21 38.46% 0.119 0.1996 -0.5
Back Against the Wall 2835 29.44 42.5% 0.3 0.3485 -0.71
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 59 24.36 32.2% -0.645 -0.4477 -0.881
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 31.53 33.33% -0.093 0.0997 -0.78
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3949 26.8 40.09% -0.239 0.1747 -0.857
Downward Spiral 9374 33.16 44.75% -0.078 0.1656 -0.848
Erosion of Will 3962 28.12 38.79% -0.334 -0.0251 -0.867
Intensifying Exploitation 56 25.84 37.5% 0.123 0.4017 -0.663
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 625 35.98 75.04% 0.184 -0.3224 0.088
Memory Fades to Dust 9530 31.96 40.29% -0.26 0.083 -1.047
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1981 27.3 44.52% -0.289 -0.053 -0.863
Promising Farmlands 3869 27.46 40.4% 0.073 0.5261 -0.962
Shattered Fragments of Power 39 28.23 41.03% 0.035 0.0869 -0.933
Slow Dissolution of Will 54 29.3 38.89% 0.079 0.4697 -0.602
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 420 37.06 77.62% 1.213 0.5025 0.336
The Border of Life and Death 11 28.45 54.55% -0.013 -0.3899 0.123
Thriving Communities 1861 26.86 39.82% 0.192 0.5397 -1.077
Thriving Crops 23 20.83 39.13% -0.171 -0.3717 -0.763
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.552
Unnatural Proliferation 1959 28.86 42.06% -0.512 -0.3173 -0.912
Untended Land Crumbles 1924 27.39 42.57% -0.231 0.0356 -0.817

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.318
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.076
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.28
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.199
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.105
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.281
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.432
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.599
East 55434 49.33% 37.96 62.35% 0.118 0.6811 -0.078
Northeast 27734 49.78% 37.4 61.36% 0.099 0.7643 -0.348
Northwest 18255 49.06% 35.83 63.65% 0.074 0.8881 -0.343
Southeast 7261 43.62% 34.79 68.31% 0.087 0.811 -0.319
Southwest 6381 49.58% 28.15 59.07% -0.156 0.8477 -0.918
West 42575 51.08% 34.67 60.29% -0.221 0.7005 -0.299

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2575 0.0% 27.04 69.59% -1.021 -0.2509 -0.512
Not Using Events or Tokens 18751 54.25% 41.41 57.29% 0.121 0.4958 0.038
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4301 18.08% 51.32 86.86% 1.807 1.1692 -0.735
Start of Game Growth 5261 21.05% 49.75 85.54% 0.395 0.0837 1.047
Unlimited Undo 8486 38.48% 38.84 74.7% -0.675 -0.698 0.737
Using Tokens but Not Events 8684 37.53% 34.05 74.82% 0.458 0.4512 -0.01

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25315 20.44 17.52%
II 42300 31.01 64.55%
III 28246 34.76 83.47%
IV 12554 38.06 97.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4433
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22409
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23349
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11997
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1643
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1260
Lose: Adversary condition 10994
Win: Sacrifice victory 489
Lose: Scenario condition 2758
Win: Scenario condition 4878
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22991
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1214

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)