Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 667 45.13% 34.12 -0.749 73.91% -0.453 -0.172
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 637 51.51% 34.85 0.218 66.41% -0.748 -0.3752
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 495 53.75% 40.97 2.659 64.85% -1.059 -0.2114
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 488 59.63% 41.57 2.747 59.63% -1.333 -0.0949
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 174 81.03% 38.76 3.172 41.38% -1.586 -0.0634
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 132 89.39% 36.0 1.544 22.73% -2.209 -0.1812
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 402 70.65% 41.45 3.752 33.58% -2.473 -0.3804
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3189 41.26% 32.42 -1.616 78.71% -0.12 -0.0724
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2384 47.08% 34.19 -0.356 73.11% -0.354 -0.3819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2265 50.07% 42.63 3.969 76.47% -0.164 -0.1667
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1699 49.82% 49.07 6.768 73.93% -0.399 -0.1149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1190 54.84% 50.14 7.52 68.82% -0.653 -0.2749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 754 67.37% 52.27 8.617 56.37% -1.06 -0.2268
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3129 79.33% 54.45 7.491 38.86% -1.587 -0.3376
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2864 42.63% 31.26 -2.113 75.0% -0.353 -0.0199
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2261 48.04% 37.56 1.403 71.87% -0.465 0.0181
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1837 59.2% 35.13 0.382 56.23% -1.169 -0.2119
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1302 61.1% 39.6 2.168 49.0% -1.69 -0.1125
The Kingdom of England 4 7 833 63.89% 39.87 2.362 38.9% -2.106 -0.5841
The Kingdom of England 5 9 754 73.71% 41.34 3.736 32.36% -2.262 -0.1985
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3969 60.57% 46.9 3.797 24.77% -3.108 -0.8521
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2213 44.26% 32.69 -1.248 66.34% -0.868 -0.344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1786 55.16% 33.59 -0.468 59.29% -1.044 -0.1525
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1101 38.78% 34.34 -0.5 36.06% -2.73 -0.6017
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 879 43.74% 35.17 -0.349 24.69% -3.398 -1.2114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 710 40.14% 35.98 -0.054 19.86% -3.731 -1.5853
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 548 43.98% 39.89 2.135 21.9% -3.389 -1.5706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2412 37.75% 44.74 3.151 22.06% -3.691 -1.5557
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2485 43.31% 31.29 -2.113 77.59% -0.135 -0.0495
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2024 45.7% 35.0 -0.181 74.01% -0.315 -0.3054
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1979 56.77% 34.72 0.038 67.05% -0.564 -0.3473
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1452 58.95% 42.77 3.942 67.77% -0.574 -0.2896
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1156 66.09% 41.61 3.267 55.62% -1.108 -0.3306
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 761 62.29% 42.99 4.013 52.3% -1.383 -0.218
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1178 68.46% 44.0 4.228 47.54% -1.58 -0.4479
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 495 38.41% 32.82 -1.618 81.01% -0.088 -0.2048
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 377 54.79% 35.15 -0.03 64.19% -0.91 -0.2215
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 342 54.68% 37.98 1.822 66.67% -0.84 -0.4043
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 297 63.3% 40.51 2.817 55.22% -1.453 -0.178
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 112 64.29% 41.11 3.557 50.0% -1.657 -0.499
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 153 75.16% 40.45 3.444 30.72% -2.46 -0.4241
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 331 80.06% 46.76 6.24 29.91% -2.598 -0.648

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2809 51.06% 32.54 -2.053 57.49% -0.561 0.0117
Dahan Insurrection 4 6496 55.61% 54.95 7.616 42.09% -0.373 0.0278
Elemental Invocation 1 33 51.52% 29.27 -2.515 54.55% -0.89 -0.4249
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6794 23.25% 45.64 3.97 69.46% -0.06 0.3151
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1657 62.08% 35.11 0.343 56.07% -0.325 0.1217
Rituals of Terror 3 1518 54.05% 43.42 3.862 51.84% -0.562 0.0605
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1088 71.42% 39.36 2.645 50.09% -0.457 0.1669
Second Wave 0 2444 58.49% 27.01 -4.0 59.04% -0.887 -0.4678
Ward the Shores 2 1586 55.95% 36.18 0.606 50.44% -0.909 0.1216

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2665 29.92 -4.13 42.59% -2.057 0.0115
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1942 31.22 -3.439 43.72% -1.94 -0.0233
All Things Weaken 868 28.47 -4.51 43.09% -2.19 -0.03
Back Against the Wall 1953 29.92 -3.95 41.27% -2.081 0.0111
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2620 27.36 -5.436 39.73% -2.165 0.056
Downward Spiral 6513 34.01 -3.654 44.36% -1.813 0.2014
Erosion of Will 2664 28.9 -4.702 38.33% -2.229 -0.0177
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 275 37.16 -0.207 76.36% -0.583 0.1284
Memory Fades to Dust 6661 32.71 -4.379 39.83% -2.066 0.1498
Power Corrodes the Spirit 868 27.65 -4.919 44.59% -2.143 -0.1228
Promising Farmlands 2545 27.9 -5.146 39.61% -2.159 0.0554
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 176 39.15 0.614 80.68% -0.339 0.078
Thriving Communities 850 26.82 -5.432 39.29% -2.305 -0.1981
Tipping Point 1641 29.07 -4.594 41.32% -1.963 0.2529
Unnatural Proliferation 911 29.04 -4.222 42.15% -2.209 -0.129
Untended Land Crumbles 840 28.59 -4.464 44.88% -2.046 0.0497

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 700 54.99% 25.99 -4.524 66.71% -0.041 -1.1147
B 691 50.89% 28.05 -3.615 68.31% 0.174 -0.9901
C 1025 48.83% 29.9 -2.752 75.41% 0.61 -0.7867
D 687 50.24% 27.2 -4.141 69.0% 0.013 -1.1448
E 463 50.79% 33.8 -1.513 70.41% 0.337 -0.9199
F 538 49.8% 30.85 -2.513 69.52% 0.387 -0.8391
G 439 51.34% 28.25 -3.677 70.16% 0.041 -1.1717
H 447 44.79% 31.4 -2.483 77.18% 0.401 -0.8205
East 14407 51.0% 40.82 1.688 62.14% -0.108 -1.0436
Northeast 18078 51.3% 38.34 0.537 60.26% -0.19 -1.0598
Northwest 12507 48.91% 36.83 0.189 63.97% -0.124 -1.0693
Southeast 3085 44.2% 36.76 0.015 71.12% -0.016 -0.9989
Southwest 2706 49.55% 29.94 -3.522 63.19% -0.477 -1.1026
West 12521 54.74% 36.01 -0.311 56.38% -0.426 -1.0907

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1604 0.0% 28.1 -5.855 68.52% -2.19 -0.1509
Not Using Events or Tokens 12707 56.32% 42.14 1.637 55.02% -0.276 -0.0562
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2903 15.34% 53.87 5.792 88.77% 1.17 0.464
Start of Game Growth 3369 18.19% 52.05 4.857 87.27% 0.559 0.0995
Unlimited Undo 4401 42.42% 41.75 1.842 75.01% 0.557 0.1543
Using Tokens but Not Events 4968 39.61% 35.25 -0.706 75.48% 0.097 0.0512

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15851 22.34 18.19%
II 27250 30.71 64.07%
III 17571 34.23 83.07%
IV 7621 37.48 97.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10764
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11033
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5629
Lose: Invader deck ran out 823
Lose: Adversary condition 7391
Win: Sacrifice victory 295
Lose: Scenario condition 1772
Win: Scenario condition 3529
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15133
Lose: Spirit destroyed 826

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)