Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 715 45.31% 33.91 -0.735 73.71% -0.451 -0.1672
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 662 51.38% 34.85 0.259 66.31% -0.757 -0.3629
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 517 54.37% 40.85 2.7 64.6% -1.047 -0.1861
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 510 60.78% 41.02 2.623 58.24% -1.366 -0.1157
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 186 80.65% 38.55 3.107 40.86% -1.612 -0.0773
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 300 89.33% 29.83 -0.999 11.0% -3.016 -0.9482
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 439 70.16% 42.3 4.031 34.62% -2.439 -0.3611
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3341 41.49% 32.29 -1.57 78.63% -0.114 -0.0717
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2490 46.64% 34.4 -0.189 73.9% -0.311 -0.3367
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2340 49.91% 42.74 4.095 76.88% -0.139 -0.1394
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1773 50.4% 48.79 6.764 73.66% -0.404 -0.1108
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 1253 54.79% 50.63 7.777 69.03% -0.627 -0.2565
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 789 67.3% 52.4 8.76 56.78% -1.041 -0.2031
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3242 79.59% 54.36 7.53 38.99% -1.58 -0.3317
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3025 42.48% 31.17 -2.049 75.04% -0.351 -0.0198
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2322 48.09% 37.56 1.499 72.01% -0.45 0.0395
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1900 59.61% 35.06 0.457 56.32% -1.147 -0.182
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1334 61.29% 39.48 2.189 48.73% -1.695 -0.1153
The Kingdom of England 4 7 876 64.29% 39.62 2.284 38.24% -2.134 -0.6196
The Kingdom of England 5 9 787 73.92% 41.43 3.855 32.78% -2.23 -0.159
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4082 60.66% 46.83 3.855 24.91% -3.099 -0.8414
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2297 44.38% 32.6 -1.195 66.04% -0.873 -0.3474
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1845 55.78% 33.49 -0.409 59.3% -1.027 -0.1384
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1116 38.71% 34.3 -0.43 36.11% -2.732 -0.6044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 909 43.83% 34.98 -0.295 24.42% -3.395 -1.2109
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 716 40.22% 35.89 -0.012 19.69% -3.738 -1.587
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 549 44.08% 40.0 2.264 22.04% -3.37 -1.5435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2487 37.62% 44.79 3.29 22.52% -3.672 -1.5438
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2614 43.56% 31.16 -2.079 77.47% -0.133 -0.0446
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2099 45.83% 34.94 -0.123 74.04% -0.303 -0.2924
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2045 56.75% 34.57 0.058 66.75% -0.577 -0.3579
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1509 59.44% 42.55 3.947 67.26% -0.583 -0.2999
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1193 66.72% 41.5 3.324 55.49% -1.094 -0.3232
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 782 62.4% 42.88 4.033 52.05% -1.388 -0.2208
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1245 67.83% 44.24 4.442 48.59% -1.543 -0.4118
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 544 38.08% 32.49 -1.649 81.25% -0.08 -0.2023
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 406 55.56% 34.64 -0.157 63.05% -0.955 -0.2397
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 357 55.18% 37.81 1.807 66.11% -0.852 -0.414
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 330 65.76% 39.51 2.515 53.33% -1.461 -0.2019
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 119 63.87% 42.19 4.134 52.1% -1.581 -0.4412
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 162 75.31% 40.49 3.472 30.86% -2.47 -0.4099
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 391 79.54% 47.51 6.615 31.71% -2.523 -0.5873

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2910 51.36% 32.63 -1.947 57.49% -0.551 0.0261
Dahan Insurrection 4 6664 55.56% 55.13 7.73 42.29% -0.375 0.026
Elemental Invocation 1 98 63.27% 29.41 -2.136 62.24% -0.393 -0.0114
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7028 23.33% 45.53 4.002 69.59% -0.059 0.307
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1703 62.34% 35.05 0.372 56.14% -0.325 0.1167
Rituals of Terror 3 1557 54.82% 43.2 3.831 51.45% -0.572 0.0562
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1277 73.84% 37.38 2.098 43.7% -0.546 0.1035
Second Wave 0 2513 58.27% 26.92 -3.991 58.97% -0.906 -0.4897
Ward the Shores 2 1631 56.31% 35.98 0.578 50.15% -0.925 0.112

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2783 29.96 -4.016 42.65% -2.051 0.0189
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2033 31.12 -3.394 43.73% -1.94 -0.0213
All Things Weaken 971 28.58 -4.32 42.84% -2.169 -0.0147
Back Against the Wall 2025 29.86 -3.912 41.38% -2.088 0.0084
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2737 27.15 -5.429 39.57% -2.179 0.0446
Downward Spiral 6775 33.85 -3.621 44.5% -1.819 0.1978
Erosion of Will 2791 28.8 -4.656 38.27% -2.235 -0.0251
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 304 37.18 -0.199 75.66% -0.606 0.0985
Memory Fades to Dust 6953 32.63 -4.308 40.08% -2.065 0.1504
Power Corrodes the Spirit 974 27.57 -4.86 43.84% -2.157 -0.137
Promising Farmlands 2676 27.75 -5.126 39.72% -2.161 0.0516
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 195 38.21 0.309 78.97% -0.452 -0.0162
Thriving Communities 944 26.85 -5.312 38.77% -2.311 -0.2132
Tipping Point 1642 29.07 -4.531 41.35% -1.963 0.2551
Unnatural Proliferation 1004 29.27 -4.025 42.23% -2.18 -0.1024
Untended Land Crumbles 944 28.31 -4.509 43.54% -2.09 0.0084

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 863 54.29% 25.59 -4.576 67.44% -0.035 -1.1248
B 811 49.32% 28.21 -3.56 70.04% 0.185 -1.0002
C 1183 47.7% 29.68 -2.72 76.16% 0.642 -0.7733
D 816 49.04% 27.0 -4.148 69.61% -0.007 -1.1841
E 525 49.4% 33.66 -1.524 70.48% 0.255 -1.0224
F 615 50.17% 30.3 -2.602 70.08% 0.391 -0.8517
G 504 50.0% 28.77 -3.358 71.23% 0.114 -1.1161
H 511 43.72% 30.81 -2.639 76.91% 0.326 -0.9142
East 14886 50.95% 40.73 1.731 62.2% -0.098 -1.0487
Northeast 18760 51.21% 38.25 0.595 60.55% -0.176 -1.0662
Northwest 12926 49.08% 36.75 0.262 64.13% -0.103 -1.0684
Southeast 3335 44.45% 36.61 0.023 71.0% 0.001 -1.0002
Southwest 3103 51.89% 29.52 -3.559 59.81% -0.5 -1.1081
West 12981 54.85% 36.06 -0.213 56.49% -0.41 -1.0955

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1730 0.0% 27.46 -5.952 68.55% -2.19 -0.1461
Not Using Events or Tokens 13385 55.99% 41.82 1.623 55.75% -0.269 -0.0504
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3008 15.56% 53.63 5.759 88.83% 1.137 0.4331
Start of Game Growth 3516 18.4% 51.89 4.898 87.32% 0.594 0.1395
Unlimited Undo 4707 42.06% 41.77 1.91 75.36% 0.558 0.1457
Using Tokens but Not Events 5287 38.95% 34.91 -0.773 75.71% 0.082 0.0341

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16627 22.34 18.3%
II 28587 30.75 64.14%
III 18558 34.26 83.11%
IV 8046 37.47 97.34%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2331
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 11566
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11825
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6046
Lose: Invader deck ran out 875
Lose: Adversary condition 7737
Win: Sacrifice victory 310
Lose: Scenario condition 1821
Win: Scenario condition 3631
Lose: Blight pool ran out 15877
Lose: Spirit destroyed 873

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)