Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3263 50.54% 31.21 55.65% -0.871 -0.6735 -0.807
Dahan Insurrection 4 7210 52.55% 55.52 45.42% 0.036 -0.4067 0.207
Despicable Theft 2 267 49.44% 35.88 59.93% -0.669 0.1434 0.564
Elemental Invocation 1 510 62.94% 28.19 47.84% -1.138 -0.4347 -0.706
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9227 23.0% 45.89 66.48% 0.7 0.0554 0.843
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1806 60.44% 34.23 56.48% -0.197 0.4386 -0.216
Rituals of Terror 3 1628 54.17% 41.88 51.66% -1.099 -0.9978 0.263
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1326 72.4% 37.08 44.8% -0.788 0.2217 0.118
Second Wave 0 3086 53.59% 26.35 62.99% 0.023 0.0891 -0.201
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 108 60.19% 27.08 39.81% -0.888 -0.2648 -0.515
Ward the Shores 2 1686 56.61% 34.31 47.86% -1.087 -0.0031 -0.336

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3920 29.3 42.24% -0.219 0.0232 -0.792
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2901 30.76 44.43% 0.38 0.3022 -0.716
All Things Weaken 1925 28.11 42.29% -0.047 0.3452 -0.861
Attenuated Essence 53 27.19 37.74% 0.098 0.2048 -0.503
Back Against the Wall 2836 29.43 42.49% 0.168 0.2261 -0.71
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 61 25.23 34.43% -0.473 -0.2715 -0.706
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 31.32 32.26% -0.172 0.0381 -0.783
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3951 26.79 40.09% -0.306 0.1176 -0.857
Downward Spiral 9380 33.16 44.77% 0.006 0.241 -0.848
Erosion of Will 3965 28.13 38.79% -0.288 0.0214 -0.867
Intensifying Exploitation 56 25.84 37.5% 0.083 0.3709 -0.652
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 626 35.97 74.92% 0.289 -0.2053 0.087
Memory Fades to Dust 9537 31.95 40.31% -0.238 0.0979 -1.047
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1981 27.3 44.52% -0.194 0.0262 -0.862
Promising Farmlands 3873 27.43 40.36% -0.043 0.4099 -0.964
Shattered Fragments of Power 41 28.29 43.9% 0.159 0.2102 -0.932
Slow Dissolution of Will 55 28.76 38.18% -0.028 0.3715 -0.655
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 421 37.07 77.67% 1.215 0.5039 0.336
The Border of Life and Death 11 28.45 54.55% -0.036 -0.3711 0.139
Thriving Communities 1863 26.86 39.83% 0.13 0.4929 -1.079
Thriving Crops 23 20.83 39.13% -0.144 -0.3418 -0.757
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.552
Unnatural Proliferation 1961 28.85 42.02% -0.605 -0.39 -0.913
Untended Land Crumbles 1924 27.39 42.57% -0.249 0.0324 -0.817

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.318
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.076
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.279
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.198
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.105
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.281
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.431
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.598
East 55508 49.31% 37.95 62.34% 0.108 0.6467 -0.078
Northeast 27774 49.77% 37.39 61.35% 0.111 0.7455 -0.349
Northwest 18272 49.07% 35.81 63.63% 0.083 0.8926 -0.344
Southeast 7274 43.57% 34.79 68.3% 0.105 0.8112 -0.319
Southwest 6396 49.48% 28.17 59.04% -0.165 0.8252 -0.907
West 42619 51.06% 34.66 60.27% -0.24 0.6632 -0.301

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2577 0.0% 27.02 69.54% -1.145 -0.3692 -0.513
Not Using Events or Tokens 18768 54.26% 41.39 57.27% 0.058 0.4368 0.036
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4313 18.02% 51.36 86.88% 1.953 1.3353 -0.734
Start of Game Growth 5273 21.0% 49.78 85.55% 0.466 0.1178 1.048
Unlimited Undo 8515 38.39% 38.8 74.59% -0.765 -0.7715 0.734
Using Tokens but Not Events 8703 37.48% 34.08 74.84% 0.425 0.4151 -0.011

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25374 20.4 17.52%
II 42338 31.01 64.55%
III 28264 34.76 83.48%
IV 12557 38.07 97.49%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4443
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22424
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23375
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12000
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1686
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1260
Lose: Adversary condition 11001
Win: Sacrifice victory 490
Lose: Scenario condition 2760
Win: Scenario condition 4880
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23000
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1214

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)