Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2943 51.79% 32.16 56.74% -0.025 0.2328 -0.797
Dahan Insurrection 4 6532 53.3% 56.6 45.28% -0.624 -0.2106 0.231
Despicable Theft 2 190 54.74% 40.09 66.84% -0.805 -0.3593 0.373
Elemental Invocation 1 383 66.84% 30.4 53.0% -1.061 -0.5753 -0.849
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7182 22.14% 45.49 69.58% -0.523 -0.2171 0.893
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1681 61.19% 34.91 57.29% 0.081 0.2626 -0.181
Rituals of Terror 3 1511 54.83% 42.64 52.22% -1.178 -1.0568 0.198
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1265 73.75% 37.75 45.3% -1.344 -0.929 0.112
Second Wave 0 2849 55.03% 26.58 62.51% -0.014 0.5517 -0.179
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%
Varied Terrains 2 23 78.26% 39.57 60.87% -0.26 0.2657 1.057
Ward the Shores 2 1560 58.3% 35.36 49.04% -0.89 0.2722 -0.265

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3647 29.32 42.09% -1.296 0.6067 -0.891
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2706 30.74 43.98% -1.74 -0.0103 -0.899
All Things Weaken 1673 27.77 41.9% -1.711 0.2749 -1.007
Back Against the Wall 2663 29.48 41.98% -1.504 0.3129 -0.798
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3677 26.78 39.92% -1.689 0.361 -0.97
Downward Spiral 8765 33.25 44.61% -1.698 0.2948 -0.944
Erosion of Will 3701 28.12 38.61% -1.784 0.2995 -0.983
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 552 36.01 76.27% 0.173 0.6143 0.02
Memory Fades to Dust 8921 32.02 40.01% -2.153 -0.0692 -1.136
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1724 26.95 43.68% -1.503 0.4356 -1.075
Promising Farmlands 3601 27.44 39.66% -1.989 0.0565 -1.065
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 366 36.51 77.6% 0.634 1.0588 0.074
Thriving Communities 1646 26.49 39.06% -1.712 0.2715 -1.204
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.647
Unnatural Proliferation 1712 28.58 42.06% -1.178 0.7862 -1.018
Untended Land Crumbles 1702 27.18 41.77% -1.297 0.6957 -0.985

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% -0.411 0.3866 0.326
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.146 0.8898 0.07
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.662 1.2306 0.285
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% -0.076 0.7194 0.195
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% -0.242 0.4055 0.079
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.414 1.1377 0.284
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% -0.764 -0.0326 0.428
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.591 1.3037 0.582
East 49448 50.48% 38.45 62.82% 0.107 0.8759 -0.022
Northeast 24959 51.14% 37.75 61.71% 0.174 1.0338 -0.351
Northwest 16436 49.77% 36.19 64.15% -0.161 0.9158 -0.345
Southeast 5849 44.68% 35.31 69.81% 0.235 0.9411 -0.308
Southwest 5199 52.35% 28.59 60.05% -0.402 0.7235 -0.985
West 37946 52.14% 35.19 60.91% -0.254 0.6998 -0.244

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2452 0.0% 27.19 70.39% -1.601 0.5279 -0.582
Not Using Events or Tokens 17376 55.05% 41.55 57.69% 0.044 0.2185 -0.027
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3871 17.99% 51.43 87.76% 1.087 0.945 -0.667
Start of Game Growth 4724 21.12% 50.02 86.43% 0.436 -0.324 1.158
Unlimited Undo 7476 40.93% 39.32 76.36% 0.21 -0.3943 0.831
Using Tokens but Not Events 7620 38.75% 34.08 76.21% -0.791 -0.9475 0.126

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21861 22.56 18.35%
II 38774 30.98 64.27%
III 25795 34.53 83.23%
IV 11370 37.77 97.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4010
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20381
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21256
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10876
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1179
Lose: Adversary condition 10166
Win: Sacrifice victory 456
Lose: Scenario condition 2275
Win: Scenario condition 4522
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21530
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1149

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)