Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2976 51.72% 32.16 57.02% 0.087 0.3541 -0.799
Dahan Insurrection 4 6603 53.18% 56.59 45.36% -0.713 -0.3799 0.206
Despicable Theft 2 195 54.36% 40.3 67.69% 0.371 0.6216 0.355
Elemental Invocation 1 398 67.59% 30.1 52.51% -1.257 -0.6088 -0.856
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7289 22.26% 45.77 69.76% 0.46 0.6258 0.925
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1690 61.22% 34.93 57.34% 0.389 0.7152 -0.194
Rituals of Terror 3 1521 54.8% 42.68 52.33% -1.146 -1.2554 0.2
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1270 73.86% 37.72 45.2% -1.611 -0.9536 0.107
Second Wave 0 2902 54.67% 26.53 62.92% 0.078 0.5484 -0.187
The Great River 3 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%
Varied Terrains 2 30 76.67% 37.87 53.33% -0.71 -0.1744 0.77
Ward the Shores 2 1569 58.22% 35.39 49.2% -0.779 0.4085 -0.283

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3690 29.32 42.14% -1.484 0.3475 -0.897
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2733 30.71 43.94% -1.95 -0.2957 -0.884
All Things Weaken 1702 27.85 42.01% -1.845 0.1313 -1.0
Back Against the Wall 2698 29.49 42.07% -1.192 0.6671 -0.778
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3715 26.8 39.97% -1.913 0.0615 -0.951
Downward Spiral 8829 33.26 44.75% -1.589 0.3125 -0.94
Erosion of Will 3738 28.1 38.6% -1.844 0.1993 -0.98
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 560 36.07 76.25% -0.105 0.4674 0.046
Memory Fades to Dust 8975 32.06 40.11% -1.797 0.1823 -1.133
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1771 26.99 43.99% -1.294 0.5981 -1.048
Promising Farmlands 3632 27.51 39.84% -1.773 0.2654 -1.048
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 377 36.47 77.98% 0.476 0.9166 0.097
Thriving Communities 1675 26.52 39.1% -1.877 0.0878 -1.197
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.646
Unnatural Proliferation 1749 28.57 42.02% -1.595 0.3113 -1.028
Untended Land Crumbles 1731 27.24 42.0% -1.369 0.6652 -0.978

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.324
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.065
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.283
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.193
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.076
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.279
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.42
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.58
East 50090 50.35% 38.49 63.01% 0.115 0.7377 -0.018
Northeast 25270 50.95% 37.84 61.95% 0.341 1.0222 -0.337
Northwest 16618 49.8% 36.16 64.2% -0.043 1.024 -0.346
Southeast 6006 44.7% 35.3 69.95% 0.211 0.9389 -0.305
Southwest 5349 52.06% 28.58 60.31% -0.244 0.7265 -0.977
West 38475 52.11% 35.15 60.96% -0.368 0.6351 -0.244

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2460 0.0% 27.2 70.37% -1.657 0.3547 -0.608
Not Using Events or Tokens 17490 54.89% 41.69 57.84% -0.049 0.1657 0.001
Skip Initial Invader Actions 3915 18.0% 51.3 87.64% -0.37 -0.4633 -0.683
Start of Game Growth 4812 21.02% 49.84 86.45% 1.166 0.4588 1.165
Unlimited Undo 7593 40.59% 39.29 76.49% 0.361 -0.3391 0.82
Using Tokens but Not Events 7715 38.83% 34.07 76.09% -0.701 -0.7466 0.122

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22077 22.6 18.39%
II 39173 31.02 64.34%
III 26156 34.59 83.3%
IV 11565 37.83 97.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4057
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20687
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21506
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11067
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1186
Lose: Adversary condition 10293
Win: Sacrifice victory 458
Lose: Scenario condition 2290
Win: Scenario condition 4566
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21704
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1157

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)