Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4066 45.8% 28.01 50.64% -0.467 -0.0235 -0.788
Dahan Insurrection 4 8178 50.52% 53.07 44.28% 0.148 -0.3609 0.245
Despicable Theft 2 546 38.1% 26.83 45.05% -0.502 0.0738 0.426
Elemental Invocation 1 876 48.97% 21.78 38.36% -1.008 -0.1512 -0.969
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 12693 22.7% 44.49 63.26% 0.914 0.2671 0.879
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2301 54.35% 30.08 50.24% -0.478 0.1147 -0.264
Rituals of Terror 3 1969 50.92% 38.31 47.84% -0.232 -0.311 0.158
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1551 67.12% 34.63 43.13% 0.351 1.1515 0.093
Second Wave 0 3669 51.51% 25.66 62.74% -0.27 -0.1624 -0.331
The Great River 3 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Varied Terrains 2 377 43.77% 21.43 35.01% 0.419 1.1991 -0.936
Ward the Shores 2 2017 53.06% 31.42 44.62% 0.048 0.8301 -0.311

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4387 28.87 42.01% -0.24 -0.0831 -0.613
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3226 30.33 44.17% -0.239 -0.3125 -0.479
All Things Weaken 2291 27.58 41.16% -0.733 -0.4885 -0.67
Attenuated Essence 271 28.96 47.6% -0.38 -0.2998 0.207
Back Against the Wall 3158 29.3 42.78% -0.426 -0.4617 -0.477
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 326 27.24 42.94% 0.324 0.5028 -0.191
Burn Brightest Before the End 173 28.5 39.88% 0.068 0.2259 -0.86
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4418 26.36 39.63% 0.147 0.5143 -0.634
Downward Spiral 10612 32.23 44.37% 0.298 0.4288 -0.599
Erosion of Will 4374 27.83 38.66% -0.169 0.0313 -0.653
Intensifying Exploitation 322 25.49 44.1% -0.148 0.0703 -0.188
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 753 34.81 72.78% -0.056 -0.4138 0.325
Memory Fades to Dust 10805 31.26 40.18% 0.083 0.3531 -0.761
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2343 26.99 43.79% 0.066 0.2102 -0.577
Promising Farmlands 4304 27.14 40.26% -0.306 0.1185 -0.792
Shattered Fragments of Power 208 26.48 40.87% -0.25 -0.0572 -0.492
Slow Dissolution of Will 273 24.89 38.1% 0.082 0.646 -0.656
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 519 35.88 75.34% 0.684 0.1352 0.631
The Border of Life and Death 90 28.51 62.22% 0.292 -0.0519 0.459
Thriving Communities 2235 26.53 39.78% -0.078 0.2306 -0.877
Thriving Crops 122 26.66 53.28% -0.146 -0.3689 0.545
Tipping Point 1657 28.97 41.34% -0.388
Unnatural Proliferation 2330 28.25 41.46% 0.068 0.2628 -0.662
Untended Land Crumbles 2283 26.99 42.23% 0.109 0.3879 -0.614

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1536 55.5% 25.25 65.56% 0.313
B 1532 50.07% 27.82 69.26% 0.099
C 2099 49.17% 28.61 75.23% 0.296
D 1426 46.58% 27.12 70.55% 0.224
E 891 50.47% 31.84 69.14% 0.142
F 1098 50.05% 29.32 68.67% 0.295
G 892 51.55% 27.77 67.71% 0.457
H 930 45.88% 29.7 74.62% 0.632
East 69999 45.88% 35.46 59.26% 0.041 0.8936 -0.131
Northeast 34620 46.83% 35.3 58.79% 0.13 0.7087 -0.318
Northwest 22839 45.7% 33.13 59.75% 0.152 1.0459 -0.377
Southeast 10444 38.36% 31.68 62.68% 0.301 0.9721 -0.391
Southwest 9207 43.63% 24.95 52.85% -0.355 0.9324 -0.958
West 54079 47.34% 31.88 56.41% -0.268 0.534 -0.299

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3017 0.0% 26.35 65.59% -1.65 -0.9285 -0.372
Not Using Events or Tokens 22645 51.53% 38.54 54.35% -0.867 -0.3629 -0.054
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5226 16.73% 50.55 84.39% -0.042 -0.4998 -0.698
Start of Game Growth 6346 19.62% 48.85 82.76% 1.845 1.3115 1.065
Unlimited Undo 11127 34.66% 35.6 66.54% -0.865 -0.9601 0.571
Using Tokens but Not Events 10909 34.73% 32.49 69.96% 0.431 0.3 -0.077

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37220 14.4 14.97%
II 49537 30.32 64.15%
III 32992 34.84 83.61%
IV 14735 38.61 97.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5569
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26301
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 27474
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14112
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 11347
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1433
Lose: Adversary condition 12217
Win: Sacrifice victory 538
Lose: Scenario condition 3249
Win: Scenario condition 5319
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25573
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1352

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-15 01:50:22 (Pacific Time)