Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 33 63.64% 25.58 -1.047 81.82% 0.205 0.4854
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 23 73.91% 30.04 1.456 78.26% 0.363 0.7529
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 29 78.57% 35.24 3.859 68.97% -0.225 0.6451
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 38 63.89% 35.16 3.095 55.26% -1.086 0.1713
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 90.48% 37.33 4.142 42.86% -1.297 0.2316
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 100.0% 42.6 7.743 60.0% -0.173 1.8527
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34 94.12% 36.59 4.404 29.41% -1.851 0.2187
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 228 39.01% 23.39 -1.295 83.77% 0.282 0.3204
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 197 37.24% 29.37 1.402 87.82% 0.584 0.5532
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 200 48.99% 36.33 4.625 84.0% 0.303 0.3081
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 159 55.41% 40.72 7.36 74.84% 0.069 0.3599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 111 48.65% 47.56 10.044 81.98% 0.157 0.5177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 55 66.67% 48.58 11.497 69.09% -0.241 0.5869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 119 80.67% 45.42 9.802 53.78% -0.799 0.4454
The Kingdom of England 0 1 158 38.85% 22.58 -1.812 77.22% -0.199 0.1326
The Kingdom of England 1 3 111 50.0% 30.64 2.271 76.58% 0.073 0.5732
The Kingdom of England 2 4 118 50.43% 31.45 2.608 65.25% -0.71 0.2599
The Kingdom of England 3 6 130 66.92% 33.25 3.582 50.77% -1.108 0.4709
The Kingdom of England 4 7 100 62.24% 36.29 4.764 48.0% -1.495 0.0057
The Kingdom of England 5 9 43 69.77% 40.28 6.348 39.53% -1.749 0.3208
The Kingdom of England 6 11 129 69.77% 42.04 6.984 36.43% -2.009 0.2431
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 83 46.99% 27.0 -0.202 77.11% -0.207 0.3178
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 73 62.5% 27.68 0.502 61.64% -0.597 0.2964
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 102 58.82% 29.95 1.573 45.1% -1.672 0.4568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 111 69.37% 40.67 6.645 55.86% -1.019 1.1676
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 63 66.67% 37.41 5.593 39.68% -1.825 0.3172
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 48 77.08% 40.27 7.338 39.58% -1.326 0.4971
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 382 66.49% 55.7 13.44 63.09% -0.917 1.1989
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 103 35.92% 23.2 -1.829 88.35% 0.486 0.575
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 84 41.67% 29.12 1.357 90.48% 0.936 0.9552
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 113 57.52% 30.61 2.116 79.65% 0.262 0.4847
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 108 57.41% 39.33 6.076 76.85% 0.132 0.4176
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 57 66.67% 34.3 3.845 56.14% -0.865 -0.0973
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 24 79.17% 35.58 5.178 54.17% -0.496 0.6648
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 188 69.68% 47.13 9.784 72.87% -0.183 0.9491
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 20 25.0% 25.05 -1.541 90.0% 0.161 0.0409
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 18 50.0% 30.94 1.248 77.78% -0.201 0.5174
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 87.5% 31.0 0.885 75.0% -0.095 0.347
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 26 61.54% 38.58 4.983 61.54% -0.835 0.4161
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 75.0% 47.75 10.179 75.0% 0.144 1.2678
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 100.0% 24.33 -2.834 0.0% -2.048 -0.0018
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 45 88.89% 48.47 9.718 44.44% -1.435 0.499

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 76 58.11% 24.08 -2.994 56.58% -0.886 -0.3047
Dahan Insurrection 4 88 25.0% 50.67 10.375 77.27% -0.439 -0.0358
Despicable Theft 2 7 57.14% 25.43 -3.95 42.86% -1.457 -1.1072
Elemental Invocation 1 16 62.5% 33.63 1.747 93.75% 0.87 1.2426
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 271 11.11% 38.66 3.509 74.54% -0.849 -0.4845
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 72.5% 27.5 -0.786 62.5% -0.49 -0.0488
Rituals of Terror 3 31 54.84% 35.23 3.693 61.29% -0.551 0.0837
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 100.0% 28.84 -0.239 31.58% -0.83 -0.189
Second Wave 0 300 48.49% 26.94 -1.094 69.33% -0.867 -0.4434
Ward the Shores 2 28 53.57% 29.32 -0.044 53.57% -1.053 -0.0118

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 215 31.78 -0.641 57.21% -1.91 0.1606
Aid From Lesser Spirits 273 31.33 -0.45 58.97% -1.895 0.027
All Things Weaken 94 32.31 -0.62 59.57% -1.716 0.4372
Back Against the Wall 243 29.1 -1.935 52.26% -2.185 -0.089
Disintegrating Ecosystem 198 27.29 -2.989 49.49% -2.383 -0.1573
Downward Spiral 541 21.9 -3.377 53.05% -2.198 -0.1789
Erosion of Will 199 28.34 -1.672 56.28% -2.16 0.0503
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 35 48.14 6.09 85.71% -0.353 0.3408
Memory Fades to Dust 518 23.36 -2.885 54.05% -2.172 0.0431
Power Corrodes the Spirit 104 34.8 -0.068 62.5% -1.788 0.2292
Promising Farmlands 253 24.65 -3.65 46.25% -2.41 -0.1968
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 36.0 0.998 76.19% -0.939 -0.5083
Thriving Communities 80 31.05 -2.557 48.75% -2.342 -0.2458
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.985 42.73% -2.304 -0.0829
Unnatural Proliferation 84 39.83 1.957 66.67% -1.653 0.433
Untended Land Crumbles 78 29.65 -2.437 46.15% -2.468 -0.3714

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2544 48.43% 28.02 -0.115 73.74% 0.084 -1.0179
B 2471 47.71% 28.04 -0.264 72.12% -0.06 -1.2561
C 2654 49.59% 29.46 0.358 72.49% 0.015 -1.4133
D 2422 48.04% 27.43 -0.551 72.75% -0.043 -1.2337
E 605 60.3% 34.81 1.504 76.2% 0.319 -0.9799
F 974 50.32% 32.74 0.757 73.72% 0.015 -1.2388
G 825 47.11% 27.92 -0.703 72.73% -0.187 -1.4297
H 823 49.75% 29.43 -0.111 72.05% -0.122 -1.3789

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 464 0.0% 15.33 -4.847 61.21% -2.168 -0.1197
Not Using Events or Tokens 1406 45.43% 20.12 -2.898 70.34% -0.205 0.0155
Skip Initial Invader Actions 270 12.37% 29.37 1.529 91.85% 0.721 0.0165
Start of Game Growth 357 18.52% 28.06 0.56 90.48% 0.451 -0.0009
Unlimited Undo 712 35.61% 29.45 0.924 84.55% 0.539 0.1224
Using Tokens but Not Events 657 39.23% 25.41 -1.484 77.78% 0.059 0.0076

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 870 22.33 18.74%
II 2433 30.75 66.46%
III 2409 34.25 88.63%
IV 947 37.47 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 79
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1534
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1081
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 696
Lose: Invader deck ran out 52
Lose: Adversary condition 382
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Scenario condition 59
Win: Scenario condition 83
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1216
Lose: Spirit destroyed 92

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)