Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 32 62.5% 26.0 -0.884 84.38% 0.35 0.6301
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 21 71.43% 30.81 1.822 80.95% 0.512 0.8852
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 26 76.0% 35.23 3.875 69.23% -0.218 0.6295
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 29 66.67% 31.48 1.722 44.83% -1.267 -0.029
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 19 89.47% 38.53 4.782 47.37% -1.159 0.3634
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 100.0% 42.6 7.689 60.0% -0.182 1.8462
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 32 93.75% 36.16 4.273 28.13% -1.828 0.2644
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 204 39.0% 23.48 -1.178 83.82% 0.322 0.369
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 176 38.86% 29.1 1.36 86.36% 0.494 0.4654
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 176 47.7% 36.88 5.037 85.23% 0.461 0.459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 147 55.17% 40.91 7.518 75.51% 0.119 0.4033
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 104 50.0% 47.43 10.06 81.73% 0.205 0.5836
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 54 66.04% 48.37 11.439 68.52% -0.261 0.5728
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 107 78.5% 46.55 10.521 56.07% -0.731 0.5184
The Kingdom of England 0 1 147 36.3% 22.9 -1.718 77.55% -0.216 0.1162
The Kingdom of England 1 3 105 50.0% 30.5 2.292 76.19% 0.066 0.5486
The Kingdom of England 2 4 110 52.29% 31.21 2.51 64.55% -0.702 0.2557
The Kingdom of England 3 6 123 66.67% 32.59 3.269 48.78% -1.185 0.3927
The Kingdom of England 4 7 96 60.64% 36.22 4.769 47.92% -1.506 0.0162
The Kingdom of England 5 9 42 69.05% 39.83 6.106 38.1% -1.81 0.2535
The Kingdom of England 6 11 114 67.54% 42.55 7.215 36.84% -1.98 0.2751
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 75 48.0% 26.75 -0.184 76.0% -0.223 0.3015
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 65 59.38% 29.2 1.351 67.69% -0.326 0.565
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 95 57.89% 29.39 1.328 43.16% -1.769 0.3595
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 102 68.63% 41.13 6.96 56.86% -0.915 1.271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 62 67.74% 37.65 5.808 40.32% -1.725 0.4207
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 46 76.09% 40.04 7.306 39.13% -1.293 0.5258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 313 64.86% 54.18 12.824 59.74% -1.041 1.0938
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 93 35.48% 23.11 -1.775 87.1% 0.386 0.4712
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 72 40.28% 29.35 1.716 91.67% 1.128 1.1374
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 101 56.44% 31.13 2.41 80.2% 0.305 0.5221
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 102 55.88% 39.75 6.269 77.45% 0.181 0.4657
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 52 69.23% 33.25 3.418 53.85% -0.918 -0.141
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 24 79.17% 35.58 5.177 54.17% -0.463 0.7019
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 156 67.95% 47.35 10.008 73.08% -0.164 0.9682
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 18 16.67% 26.0 -1.292 94.44% 0.264 0.1465
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 13 53.85% 30.92 1.026 76.92% -0.243 0.4455
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 28.5 -0.142 66.67% -0.292 0.1439
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 22 68.18% 37.59 4.434 59.09% -0.786 0.4891
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 81.82% 47.27 9.969 72.73% 0.14 1.2972
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 100.0% 24.33 -2.77 0.0% -1.959 0.0775
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 41 90.24% 47.98 9.49 43.9% -1.381 0.5685

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 67 58.46% 25.24 -2.452 56.72% -0.769 -0.1967
Dahan Insurrection 4 84 23.81% 51.45 10.688 78.57% -0.394 0.007
Elemental Invocation 1 5 80.0% 25.8 -1.419 80.0% 0.185 0.65
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 256 10.59% 38.68 3.528 73.44% -0.879 -0.504
Powers Long Forgotten 1 35 71.43% 28.6 -0.256 62.86% -0.32 0.1269
Rituals of Terror 3 27 55.56% 35.48 3.767 59.26% -0.582 0.0397
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 100.0% 28.84 -0.427 31.58% -0.918 -0.2934
Second Wave 0 279 46.76% 27.02 -1.029 70.25% -0.846 -0.4273
Ward the Shores 2 25 48.0% 30.04 0.53 60.0% -0.858 0.1723

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 190 30.78 -0.965 55.26% -1.964 0.1043
Aid From Lesser Spirits 243 31.03 -0.491 56.79% -1.906 0.0104
All Things Weaken 78 33.6 0.09 62.82% -1.481 0.6792
Back Against the Wall 213 29.52 -1.63 52.58% -2.109 -0.0172
Disintegrating Ecosystem 178 26.57 -3.153 48.31% -2.37 -0.1489
Downward Spiral 495 21.65 -3.46 52.93% -2.2 -0.1856
Erosion of Will 175 27.18 -2.022 54.86% -2.207 0.0048
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26 49.81 6.9 84.62% -0.306 0.4062
Memory Fades to Dust 472 23.49 -2.796 54.03% -2.14 0.0756
Power Corrodes the Spirit 80 35.6 0.388 63.75% -1.633 0.3865
Promising Farmlands 234 24.53 -3.726 44.44% -2.472 -0.2572
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 37.12 1.472 76.47% -0.869 -0.452
Thriving Communities 67 30.78 -2.179 46.27% -2.222 -0.1148
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.985 42.73% -2.299 -0.0829
Unnatural Proliferation 56 41.5 2.694 67.86% -1.485 0.5952
Untended Land Crumbles 71 30.55 -2.169 47.89% -2.364 -0.2689

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2357 48.0% 27.95 -0.096 73.57% 0.096 -0.9777
B 2248 47.28% 27.96 -0.23 72.02% -0.046 -1.2106
C 2441 48.96% 29.07 0.274 72.18% 0.018 -1.3783
D 2229 48.03% 27.37 -0.539 72.05% -0.065 -1.2233
E 481 58.64% 34.29 1.386 75.47% 0.269 -0.9879
F 852 49.21% 32.12 0.596 73.24% 0.003 -1.2225
G 713 45.21% 28.29 -0.448 73.21% -0.129 -1.3413
H 723 47.97% 29.79 0.085 72.2% -0.125 -1.3466

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 437 0.0% 15.25 -4.915 61.1% -2.155 -0.1161
Not Using Events or Tokens 1294 45.27% 20.11 -2.94 70.17% -0.229 -0.0085
Skip Initial Invader Actions 251 11.89% 29.84 1.61 92.43% 0.647 -0.0586
Start of Game Growth 327 18.07% 28.35 0.577 91.44% 0.597 0.1374
Unlimited Undo 642 34.69% 29.77 1.073 85.05% 0.593 0.1909
Using Tokens but Not Events 609 39.62% 25.53 -1.381 77.34% 0.059 0.0134

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 813 22.34 18.94%
II 2209 30.71 66.82%
III 2162 34.23 88.44%
IV 838 37.48 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 70
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1313
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 941
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 587
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 352
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 81
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1101
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)