Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 26.67% 25.13 60.0% 0.09 0.0409 0.103
Blitz 0 85 45.88% 26.44 74.12% 0.33 0.5907 -0.776
Dahan Insurrection 4 80 27.5% 47.76 72.5% -0.322 -0.4779 -0.89
Despicable Theft 2 19 52.63% 22.63 42.11% 0.316 1.121
Elemental Invocation 1 36 69.44% 28.97 72.22% -1.185
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 320 17.72% 38.4 71.88% 0.603 0.0418 0.436
Powers Long Forgotten 1 54 69.81% 25.56 55.56% 0.028 0.9202 -0.8
Rituals of Terror 3 34 73.53% 33.82 52.94% -0.585
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 31 93.55% 27.23 32.26% 0.145 1.0067 0.113
Second Wave 0 427 46.35% 27.13 71.43% 0.215 0.2975 -0.703
Varied Terrains 2 27 66.67% 22.74 44.44% -1.619 -0.838 -0.681
Ward the Shores 2 36 58.33% 31.03 61.11% 0.31 1.3711 -0.629

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 371 31.78 56.87% 0.202 0.3467 -0.29
Aid From Lesser Spirits 470 31.22 57.45% -0.43 -0.5334 -0.213
All Things Weaken 252 30.55 53.97% -0.167 0.1372 -0.176
Attenuated Essence 20 27.0 50.0% 0.262 0.2847 0.679
Back Against the Wall 417 30.95 56.59% -0.574 -0.5257 -0.325
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 35 30.63 65.71% 0.589 0.7949 0.951
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 30.5 50.0% 0.25 0.4268 0.047
Disintegrating Ecosystem 386 27.81 51.3% -0.451 -0.0316 -0.258
Downward Spiral 972 22.66 53.19% 0.407 0.4742 -0.291
Erosion of Will 387 28.87 53.49% -0.468 -0.1753 -0.508
Intensifying Exploitation 26 21.73 42.31% -0.895 -0.6002 0.461
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 104 39.62 79.81% 0.201 -0.2752 0.309
Memory Fades to Dust 918 22.7 52.29% 0.396 0.618 -0.373
Power Corrodes the Spirit 244 32.66 60.25% -0.343 -0.1669 -0.028
Promising Farmlands 443 25.51 48.53% -0.438 -0.1346 -0.724
Shattered Fragments of Power 31 21.16 29.03% -0.666 -0.4777 -0.074
Slow Dissolution of Will 31 27.29 61.29% -0.515 -0.1453 0.865
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 67 38.54 86.57% 0.398 -0.3562 0.948
The Border of Life and Death 10 38.1 70.0% 0.044 -0.5174 0.44
Thriving Communities 234 30.33 54.27% -0.04 0.2667 -0.368
Thriving Crops 14 33.86 85.71% 0.402 0.431 0.652
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.185
Unnatural Proliferation 205 38.26 68.29% -0.355 -0.2015 0.595
Untended Land Crumbles 231 29.63 49.78% -0.054 0.3033 -0.387

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4641 48.58% 26.3 68.65% -0.1 0.7683 -0.053
B 4675 50.13% 27.67 67.83% -0.035 0.7973 0.083
C 4921 48.96% 29.05 69.78% -0.024 0.6641 0.182
D 4225 47.97% 25.93 69.4% -0.079 0.7604 -0.117
E 1757 53.49% 32.04 70.69% 0.115 0.8171 0.178
F 2310 51.46% 32.93 71.9% 0.131 0.9486 0.178
G 1852 46.8% 26.43 69.33% -0.42 0.4372 -0.348
H 1819 46.79% 27.76 71.58% 0.403 1.1881 -0.114

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 860 0.0% 13.95 55.47% -0.142 0.5935
Not Using Events or Tokens 2632 45.22% 18.31 64.25% -0.622 -0.1954 -0.722
Skip Initial Invader Actions 417 14.7% 29.13 87.05% 0.032 -0.5777 0.875
Start of Game Growth 560 21.0% 28.1 85.18% 0.499 -0.1081 1.607
Unlimited Undo 1382 40.02% 27.74 77.28% -0.107 -0.1041 0.669
Using Tokens but Not Events 1166 39.56% 23.97 74.27% 0.06 0.0703 -0.384

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2069 15.56 11.5%
II 4610 30.46 64.75%
III 4595 34.8 88.49%
IV 1827 38.44 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 238
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3999
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2910
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1808
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 697
Lose: Invader deck ran out 103
Lose: Adversary condition 739
Win: Sacrifice victory 34
Lose: Scenario condition 79
Win: Scenario condition 121
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2200
Lose: Spirit destroyed 173

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-10 06:17:01 (Pacific Time)