Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 63.89% 26.25 -0.834 83.33% 0.229 0.5124
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 74.07% 30.89 1.786 81.48% 0.506 0.9172
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 32 70.97% 35.16 3.767 68.75% -0.315 0.5612
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 68.75% 35.48 3.245 58.0% -0.929 0.3163
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 22 90.91% 36.68 3.826 40.91% -1.37 0.1323
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 46.29 9.328 71.43% 0.138 2.0909
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 39 92.31% 37.41 4.424 30.77% -1.954 0.0889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 245 39.75% 23.32 -1.342 83.67% 0.292 0.3345
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 216 36.28% 29.57 1.434 87.96% 0.568 0.5494
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 225 48.43% 36.25 4.452 83.56% 0.255 0.2684
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 179 56.5% 40.13 6.996 73.18% -0.057 0.2309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 118 50.0% 47.64 10.0 83.05% 0.238 0.6049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 66 67.69% 46.73 10.334 65.15% -0.45 0.3766
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 129 81.4% 44.27 9.106 51.16% -0.939 0.2987
The Kingdom of England 0 1 172 36.84% 22.79 -1.782 78.49% -0.189 0.143
The Kingdom of England 1 3 120 52.1% 30.63 2.257 77.5% 0.156 0.6696
The Kingdom of England 2 4 128 51.97% 31.0 2.385 63.28% -0.841 0.127
The Kingdom of England 3 6 144 66.67% 33.01 3.397 50.0% -1.173 0.4061
The Kingdom of England 4 7 119 60.68% 35.48 4.198 45.38% -1.706 -0.2074
The Kingdom of England 5 9 46 67.39% 42.02 7.139 43.48% -1.654 0.4195
The Kingdom of England 6 11 148 70.95% 41.53 6.648 35.14% -2.115 0.1333
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 86 48.84% 26.55 -0.465 75.58% -0.309 0.2045
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 82 61.73% 26.57 -0.19 58.54% -0.796 0.1029
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 108 61.11% 30.08 1.395 44.44% -1.701 0.4421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 117 68.38% 40.45 6.504 55.56% -1.064 1.1323
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 68 66.18% 37.97 5.709 41.18% -1.811 0.347
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 48 77.08% 40.27 7.273 39.58% -1.345 0.4719
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 463 68.25% 56.33 13.601 64.79% -0.82 1.2772
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 115 35.65% 23.35 -1.811 88.7% 0.48 0.5648
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 95 44.21% 28.52 0.93 88.42% 0.764 0.7978
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 126 57.14% 30.22 1.767 78.57% 0.155 0.3895
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 119 60.5% 39.64 6.189 78.99% 0.252 0.5388
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 66 68.18% 34.98 3.852 59.09% -0.809 -0.0258
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 29 79.31% 34.69 4.157 51.72% -0.736 0.43
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 200 70.0% 46.84 9.475 72.5% -0.228 0.8965
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 25.0% 24.25 -1.835 87.5% 0.094 -0.0071
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 25 52.0% 29.12 0.196 72.0% -0.503 0.276
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 71.43% 35.93 2.797 78.57% 0.029 0.4481
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 66.67% 37.09 4.391 57.58% -0.952 0.3019
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 78.57% 48.79 10.575 78.57% 0.213 1.3302
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 100.0% 34.33 1.975 25.0% -1.691 0.308
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 53 88.68% 48.28 9.497 43.4% -1.474 0.4042

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 79 57.14% 24.08 -2.901 58.23% -0.828 -0.2588
Dahan Insurrection 4 96 26.04% 50.01 10.089 76.04% -0.487 -0.0891
Despicable Theft 2 8 50.0% 26.5 -2.791 50.0% -1.19 -0.9205
Elemental Invocation 1 23 69.57% 31.65 0.171 78.26% 0.174 0.6387
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 291 12.41% 38.74 3.518 74.91% -0.812 -0.4458
Powers Long Forgotten 1 46 73.91% 26.65 -1.197 60.87% -0.564 -0.1191
Rituals of Terror 3 32 56.25% 34.63 3.425 59.38% -0.652 -0.0067
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 100.0% 28.57 -0.314 34.78% -0.869 -0.2239
Second Wave 0 312 47.59% 27.29 -0.936 70.51% -0.827 -0.3983
Ward the Shores 2 28 53.57% 29.32 0.054 53.57% -1.018 0.0161

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 242 31.44 -0.834 57.85% -1.878 0.1953
Aid From Lesser Spirits 299 31.46 -0.512 58.86% -1.867 0.051
All Things Weaken 110 32.2 -0.907 57.27% -1.842 0.3284
Back Against the Wall 266 29.48 -1.861 53.01% -2.145 -0.0542
Disintegrating Ecosystem 228 28.5 -2.587 50.88% -2.29 -0.0655
Downward Spiral 598 22.38 -3.184 54.35% -2.117 -0.0936
Erosion of Will 225 28.9 -1.543 56.0% -2.114 0.0949
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 46.2 4.966 82.61% -0.557 0.1295
Memory Fades to Dust 568 23.27 -2.952 52.82% -2.204 0.0144
Power Corrodes the Spirit 128 33.16 -0.977 56.25% -1.991 0.0333
Promising Farmlands 275 25.07 -3.496 47.64% -2.318 -0.1037
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 25 38.88 2.162 80.0% -0.796 -0.3857
Thriving Communities 98 31.57 -2.401 48.98% -2.323 -0.2286
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.968 42.73% -2.294 -0.0676
Unnatural Proliferation 107 40.38 2.136 70.09% -1.474 0.6124
Untended Land Crumbles 100 29.64 -2.543 46.0% -2.499 -0.3934

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2769 49.13% 28.05 -0.191 73.2% 0.067 -0.6938
B 2697 49.38% 28.29 -0.274 71.49% -0.068 -0.9251
C 2909 50.41% 29.68 0.356 72.19% 0.021 -1.0677
D 2605 48.36% 27.54 -0.549 72.82% -0.029 -0.8794
E 721 59.35% 35.09 1.516 75.45% 0.267 -0.6977
F 1116 51.4% 33.27 0.851 73.57% 0.013 -0.9013
G 941 49.05% 28.0 -0.665 72.37% -0.136 -1.0411
H 938 50.06% 29.32 -0.182 72.28% -0.113 -1.0277

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 505 0.0% 15.13 -4.883 60.2% -2.185 -0.1286
Not Using Events or Tokens 1529 45.54% 19.97 -2.99 69.98% -0.225 -0.0095
Skip Initial Invader Actions 289 13.53% 29.38 1.49 91.35% 0.653 -0.0334
Start of Game Growth 386 18.56% 28.2 0.574 90.41% 0.489 0.0187
Unlimited Undo 791 36.31% 29.56 0.885 84.2% 0.538 0.1181
Using Tokens but Not Events 704 40.36% 25.24 -1.604 77.56% 0.053 0.0004

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 963 22.35 17.55%
II 2672 30.84 65.98%
III 2669 34.35 88.68%
IV 1044 37.52 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 85
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1765
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1223
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 791
Lose: Invader deck ran out 59
Lose: Adversary condition 440
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 63
Win: Scenario condition 88
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1344
Lose: Spirit destroyed 104

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)