Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 63.89% 26.25 -0.862 83.33% 0.234 0.512
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 74.07% 30.89 1.771 81.48% 0.493 0.8871
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 29 78.57% 35.24 3.803 68.97% -0.21 0.668
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 45 65.12% 35.69 3.264 57.78% -1.009 0.2423
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 90.48% 37.33 3.994 42.86% -1.329 0.1923
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 6 100.0% 44.83 8.774 66.67% 0.0 1.9775
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 37 91.89% 38.0 4.884 32.43% -1.814 0.2358
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 237 39.83% 23.26 -1.366 83.54% 0.286 0.3268
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 210 36.84% 29.56 1.421 88.57% 0.637 0.6082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 215 48.36% 36.22 4.421 83.26% 0.229 0.2339
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 168 54.82% 40.52 7.211 74.4% 0.025 0.3139
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 113 48.67% 47.6 10.002 82.3% 0.167 0.5345
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 67.24% 48.56 11.38 69.49% -0.215 0.6144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 121 80.99% 45.03 9.571 52.89% -0.848 0.3931
The Kingdom of England 0 1 166 37.58% 22.65 -1.863 77.71% -0.215 0.1171
The Kingdom of England 1 3 114 50.44% 30.45 2.177 76.32% 0.067 0.5709
The Kingdom of England 2 4 123 52.46% 30.75 2.259 62.6% -0.839 0.1296
The Kingdom of England 3 6 137 67.15% 33.09 3.475 50.36% -1.124 0.4542
The Kingdom of England 4 7 104 61.76% 36.33 4.693 48.08% -1.515 -0.0167
The Kingdom of England 5 9 44 68.18% 41.02 6.658 40.91% -1.735 0.332
The Kingdom of England 6 11 139 69.78% 42.5 7.161 37.41% -1.998 0.2568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 85 48.24% 26.81 -0.347 76.47% -0.25 0.2644
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 77 61.84% 27.12 0.157 59.74% -0.726 0.1701
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 104 59.62% 29.69 1.352 44.23% -1.72 0.4172
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 115 68.7% 40.57 6.549 55.65% -1.049 1.1363
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 64 65.63% 37.75 5.671 40.63% -1.821 0.3255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 48 77.08% 40.27 7.275 39.58% -1.337 0.483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 433 68.13% 56.19 13.539 64.43% -0.844 1.2632
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 110 37.27% 23.15 -1.889 88.18% 0.468 0.5529
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 87 43.68% 28.77 1.116 89.66% 0.863 0.8838
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 119 57.14% 30.25 1.764 78.15% 0.13 0.3621
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 114 59.65% 39.53 6.105 78.07% 0.201 0.4871
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 61 65.57% 35.2 4.054 59.02% -0.807 -0.0298
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 25 80.0% 36.08 5.205 56.0% -0.48 0.6775
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 194 69.07% 47.21 9.696 73.2% -0.183 0.9483
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 22 22.73% 24.91 -1.618 90.91% 0.203 0.0968
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 23 52.17% 29.61 0.334 73.91% -0.453 0.2903
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 72.73% 34.0 1.983 81.82% 0.022 0.4537
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 62.07% 39.86 5.448 65.52% -0.711 0.5385
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 76.92% 48.38 10.493 76.92% 0.21 1.3369
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 100.0% 29.75 0.329 12.5% -1.889 0.1298
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 48 87.5% 50.21 10.388 47.92% -1.35 0.5554

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 76 58.11% 24.08 -2.998 56.58% -0.874 -0.301
Dahan Insurrection 4 91 25.27% 50.14 10.169 76.92% -0.457 -0.057
Despicable Theft 2 8 50.0% 26.5 -3.056 50.0% -1.294 -1.0111
Elemental Invocation 1 21 66.67% 32.14 0.727 85.71% 0.393 0.8322
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 281 12.14% 38.6 3.389 74.38% -0.877 -0.5111
Powers Long Forgotten 1 45 73.33% 27.07 -1.077 62.22% -0.513 -0.0721
Rituals of Terror 3 31 54.84% 35.23 3.669 61.29% -0.584 0.0603
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 22 100.0% 27.64 -0.787 31.82% -0.931 -0.2896
Second Wave 0 307 48.04% 27.14 -1.054 70.03% -0.852 -0.4239
Ward the Shores 2 28 53.57% 29.32 -0.016 53.57% -1.034 0.0032

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 222 31.4 -0.835 57.21% -1.917 0.1567
Aid From Lesser Spirits 287 31.33 -0.581 59.23% -1.892 0.0271
All Things Weaken 103 32.39 -0.698 59.22% -1.762 0.3971
Back Against the Wall 254 29.26 -1.964 51.97% -2.206 -0.1119
Disintegrating Ecosystem 216 28.16 -2.719 51.39% -2.308 -0.0837
Downward Spiral 573 22.4 -3.194 54.28% -2.143 -0.1219
Erosion of Will 212 29.06 -1.482 56.6% -2.125 0.0833
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 39 47.46 5.741 87.18% -0.294 0.3986
Memory Fades to Dust 550 23.32 -2.949 53.27% -2.202 0.0163
Power Corrodes the Spirit 115 34.1 -0.597 60.0% -1.883 0.1384
Promising Farmlands 261 25.16 -3.491 47.13% -2.373 -0.1586
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 35.83 1.12 78.26% -0.902 -0.4911
Thriving Communities 85 31.85 -2.473 49.41% -2.329 -0.236
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.979 42.73% -2.297 -0.0718
Unnatural Proliferation 96 41.07 2.452 70.83% -1.475 0.6141
Untended Land Crumbles 90 29.88 -2.398 47.78% -2.444 -0.3387

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2663 48.87% 28.08 -0.18 73.53% 0.066 -1.0462
B 2588 48.72% 28.18 -0.318 71.87% -0.078 -1.286
C 2784 50.19% 29.65 0.362 72.52% 0.02 -1.4194
D 2511 48.08% 27.45 -0.596 72.88% -0.048 -1.2501
E 665 58.92% 35.46 1.699 76.69% 0.301 -1.0116
F 1041 50.45% 33.37 0.915 74.35% 0.03 -1.2357
G 886 48.09% 28.01 -0.695 72.91% -0.149 -1.4059
H 888 49.65% 29.47 -0.162 72.64% -0.12 -1.3858

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 487 0.0% 15.34 -4.814 60.99% -2.17 -0.1157
Not Using Events or Tokens 1470 45.89% 19.99 -2.988 69.93% -0.232 -0.0138
Skip Initial Invader Actions 279 12.12% 29.43 1.547 91.76% 0.7 0.0059
Start of Game Growth 375 17.79% 28.15 0.561 90.67% 0.499 0.0364
Unlimited Undo 751 35.28% 29.62 0.946 84.55% 0.533 0.1123
Using Tokens but Not Events 679 39.53% 25.39 -1.543 78.2% 0.083 0.0309

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 908 22.34 18.28%
II 2565 30.81 66.39%
III 2546 34.31 88.85%
IV 994 37.5 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 82
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1661
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1165
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 742
Lose: Invader deck ran out 54
Lose: Adversary condition 410
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 62
Win: Scenario condition 85
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1270
Lose: Spirit destroyed 96

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)