Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.538 0.3709
Blitz 0 67 46.27% 25.16 74.63% 0.371 0.521 -0.57
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 31.34% 50.12 73.13% 0.188 -0.0238 -0.83
Despicable Theft 2 11 54.55% 25.09 45.45%
Elemental Invocation 1 29 72.41% 29.0 75.86% -1.147
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 291 17.01% 39.53 72.51% -0.344 -0.952 0.357
Powers Long Forgotten 1 44 72.73% 26.41 56.82% -0.054 0.4457 -0.886
Rituals of Terror 3 29 68.97% 34.45 58.62% 0.078 0.1863 -0.372
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 100.0% 27.92 33.33% 0.537
Second Wave 0 350 47.13% 27.87 72.29% -0.032 0.0478 -0.743
Varied Terrains 2 7 71.43% 37.29 100.0% 0.339 0.92 0.466
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.0% 32.08 60.0% -0.567

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 324 32.55 59.26% 0.089 0.3552 -0.442
Aid From Lesser Spirits 415 31.91 58.31% 0.066 0.0725 -0.463
All Things Weaken 204 32.07 53.92% -0.468 -0.0325 -0.391
Attenuated Essence 3 14.0 66.67% -0.238 -0.0474
Back Against the Wall 354 31.48 57.91% 0.143 0.2846 -0.342
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 16.75 25.0% -0.293 0.0908
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 30.22 66.67% 0.017 0.3103 0.576
Disintegrating Ecosystem 318 29.74 51.89% -1.221 -0.7186 -0.416
Downward Spiral 798 23.3 53.51% -0.886 -0.5571 -0.434
Erosion of Will 318 29.89 55.35% -0.268 0.1174 -0.545
Intensifying Exploitation 6 26.17 33.33% -0.542 -0.1747 0.049
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 83 42.54 81.93% 0.351 -0.169 0.308
Memory Fades to Dust 747 23.96 53.68% -0.625 -0.1589 -0.502
Power Corrodes the Spirit 199 33.28 58.79% -0.361 -0.0714 -0.082
Promising Farmlands 380 26.42 48.68% -1.368 -0.7989 -0.839
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 29.29 42.86% -0.42 -0.2673 -0.587
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 42.38 75.0% 0.797 1.3002 0.853
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 40.75 88.24% 0.951 0.2981 0.727
The Border of Life and Death 3 32.0 66.67% 0.057 -0.1213
Thriving Communities 174 33.32 58.05% 0.097 0.5582 -0.551
Thriving Crops 1 28.0 0.0% -0.136 -0.0889
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.378
Unnatural Proliferation 170 39.87 70.0% -0.238 0.0537 0.199
Untended Land Crumbles 193 31.18 50.26% -0.756 -0.4354 -0.53

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3743 49.14% 27.96 72.29% -0.445 0.3916 -0.055
B 3762 50.26% 29.4 71.19% -0.308 0.4718 0.168
C 4028 50.56% 30.78 72.57% 0.423 1.0757 0.175
D 3434 48.71% 27.45 72.28% 0.05 0.8482 -0.282
E 1274 55.46% 34.38 74.02% 0.043 0.6677 0.304
F 1807 52.23% 35.4 74.32% 0.416 1.1345 0.139
G 1428 47.59% 27.6 72.06% -0.338 0.4052 -0.369
H 1386 47.18% 29.01 73.52% 0.164 0.8094 -0.09

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 671 0.0% 14.71 57.97% -1.399 -0.5186
Not Using Events or Tokens 2048 45.72% 19.64 68.46% -0.33 -0.0046 -0.333
Skip Initial Invader Actions 349 14.29% 29.43 89.97% 0.15 -0.3909 0.811
Start of Game Growth 475 20.22% 28.01 88.21% 0.672 0.353 1.148
Unlimited Undo 1089 37.3% 28.84 82.0% -0.08 -0.0933 0.817
Using Tokens but Not Events 961 39.74% 25.24 77.63% 0.076 0.0186 0.125

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1381 20.97 15.06%
II 3761 31.03 66.42%
III 3814 34.74 88.8%
IV 1475 38.02 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3331
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2430
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1459
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 117
Lose: Invader deck ran out 81
Lose: Adversary condition 645
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 105
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1812
Lose: Spirit destroyed 140

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)