Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 48 64.58% 27.54 79.17%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 44 65.91% 30.57 -5.583 79.55% 0.155 0.444
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 67.86% 34.75 4.959 63.16% 0.374 1.5564
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 64 74.19% 33.72 -1.206 53.13% -0.039 1.3844
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 90.32% 37.97 8.921 45.16% 0.331 1.8139
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 100.0% 45.56 4.833 66.67% -0.451 1.5964
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 45 86.67% 40.2 35.56%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 304 38.93% 23.56 -3.428 84.54% -0.41 -0.5155
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 275 37.0% 29.79 0.374 88.36% 0.438 0.1173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 331 45.71% 37.1 2.94 84.59% -0.347 -0.1701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 238 58.12% 39.92 7.533 73.11% 0.06 0.4227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 150 53.02% 46.94 -0.804 82.0% -1.074 -0.7648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 89 64.77% 47.19 7.286 66.29% -0.366 0.601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 160 80.63% 46.17 12.23 55.0% 0.674 2.1517
The Kingdom of England 0 1 213 36.32% 23.8 -3.164 80.75% 0.336 0.8071
The Kingdom of England 1 3 176 54.29% 30.3 0.314 75.57% -0.465 0.161
The Kingdom of England 2 4 189 53.72% 31.41 2.781 64.55% -0.308 0.8214
The Kingdom of England 3 6 181 65.75% 33.29 5.637 50.83% 0.082 1.7213
The Kingdom of England 4 7 149 62.59% 36.66 11.697 48.99% -0.137 1.3251
The Kingdom of England 5 9 65 75.38% 40.77 10.858 41.54% 0.05 2.1402
The Kingdom of England 6 11 187 69.52% 42.82 13.442 37.97% 0.1 2.581
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 108 50.0% 26.4 -2.134 74.07% -0.427 0.1965
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 113 58.93% 27.93 -0.036 65.49% 0.056 1.1697
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 171 64.33% 30.09 2.888 44.44% -0.529 1.4682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 151 64.24% 39.71 5.735 53.64% -0.28 1.8452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 84 64.29% 38.81 2.366 42.86% -0.629 1.5399
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 59 79.66% 40.07 11.867 38.98% 0.07 2.0335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 737 67.3% 58.6 9.827 68.79% -0.15 2.0184
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 12 25.0% 29.33 0.132 100.0% 0.585 0.3468
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 16.67% 31.67 -1.887 83.33% -0.343 0.5526
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 11 9.09% 34.36 4.811 63.64% 0.247 1.4626
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 53.85% 36.23 6.751 53.85% -0.061 0.7784
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 80.0% 42.8 0.994 70.0% -0.409 0.7493
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 80.0% 51.8 6.286 80.0% -0.414 0.919
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 36 72.22% 58.25 10.297 77.78% -0.394 1.2254
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 145 38.73% 22.86 -5.002 85.52% 0.007 0.1828
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 121 46.28% 28.56 -1.09 86.78% -0.359 -0.198
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 151 55.63% 31.0 18.652 79.47% 0.261 0.49
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 148 60.81% 38.63 -0.48 77.03% -0.519 -0.1484
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 88 71.59% 34.76 -0.685 59.09% -0.417 0.6212
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 79.49% 35.79 0.919 56.41% -0.427 0.6823
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 271 70.85% 47.72 0.438 73.8% -1.247 -0.0569
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 42 26.19% 28.07 -9.134 88.1% -0.372 -0.8267
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 40 57.5% 30.0 -5.285 70.0% -0.594 0.1132
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 38 57.89% 38.24 6.181 81.58% 0.672 1.1109
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 54 68.52% 38.06 3.07 59.26% -0.161 1.0635
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 26 69.23% 48.08 12.024 76.92% 0.079 1.157
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 17 94.12% 35.71 8.038 29.41% -0.274 1.6918
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 65 89.23% 47.34 5.437 38.46% -0.534 1.4331

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.131 0.4875
Blitz 0 63 44.44% 26.13 76.19% 0.433 0.9319 -0.497
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 32.81% 48.72 71.88% 0.149 0.2688 -1.057
Despicable Theft 2 11 54.55% 25.09 45.45%
Elemental Invocation 1 29 72.41% 29.0 75.86% 0.019 0.6275 -1.154
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 286 17.31% 39.78 72.73% 0.594 0.8183 0.325
Powers Long Forgotten 1 40 75.0% 25.9 55.0% -0.449 0.0304 -0.866
Rituals of Terror 3 27 70.37% 34.19 55.56% -0.485
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 100.0% 27.92 33.33% 0.432
Second Wave 0 325 47.06% 28.25 72.92% 0.147 0.7383 -0.717
Varied Terrains 2 4 100.0% 33.5 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.0% 32.08 60.0% -0.554

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 306 32.15 59.15% -0.265 1.7286 -0.552
Aid From Lesser Spirits 398 31.53 58.04% -0.839 0.9363 -0.539
All Things Weaken 186 32.76 54.3% -1.774 0.2861 -0.638
Back Against the Wall 334 31.3 56.89% 0.023 1.9575 -0.426
Disintegrating Ecosystem 299 29.9 52.84% -0.583 1.4963 -0.403
Downward Spiral 759 23.59 54.68% -1.877 0.0473 -0.383
Erosion of Will 300 29.98 56.0% -0.948 1.143 -0.474
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 77 43.84 84.42% 0.36 0.8598 0.318
Memory Fades to Dust 709 24.36 54.3% -1.366 0.7446 -0.468
Power Corrodes the Spirit 188 33.61 59.04% -0.096 1.8515 -0.129
Promising Farmlands 362 26.68 49.72% -1.132 0.8778 -0.9
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 41.04 86.96% 0.398 0.8677 0.668
Thriving Communities 164 33.27 57.32% -1.362 0.7035 -0.661
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.401
Unnatural Proliferation 157 39.71 70.06% -0.878 1.0641 0.079
Untended Land Crumbles 186 31.43 51.08% -0.954 1.0836 -0.734

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3524 49.53% 28.43 73.61% -0.254 0.4372 -0.087
B 3516 50.05% 29.79 72.44% -0.269 0.3951 0.186
C 3826 50.84% 30.9 73.03% 0.055 0.4908 0.046
D 3240 48.88% 27.73 73.12% 0.156 0.8324 -0.243
E 1146 56.38% 35.22 75.39% -0.046 0.4468 0.418
F 1687 52.49% 35.74 74.87% -0.487 0.157 0.088
G 1311 47.29% 27.91 73.3% 0.585 1.1592 -0.366
H 1294 47.58% 29.07 73.88% 0.277 0.898 -0.052

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 642 0.0% 15.02 59.19% -1.184 1.0082
Not Using Events or Tokens 1942 45.29% 19.98 69.88% -0.63 -0.3872 -0.204
Skip Initial Invader Actions 337 13.85% 29.4 90.8% 0.535 -0.499 0.213
Start of Game Growth 456 20.23% 28.02 88.82% 0.433 -0.0853 0.636
Unlimited Undo 1012 36.97% 29.53 83.99% 0.721 0.2079 1.201
Using Tokens but Not Events 900 40.1% 25.52 78.44% -0.616 -0.4494 0.371

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1217 22.67 16.68%
II 3552 31.1 66.81%
III 3603 34.68 88.93%
IV 1400 37.93 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 203
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3150
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2306
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1385
Lose: Invader deck ran out 78
Lose: Adversary condition 596
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 102
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1720
Lose: Spirit destroyed 130

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)