Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.233 0.0499
Blitz 0 65 46.15% 25.46 75.38% -0.047 0.2435 -0.5
Dahan Insurrection 4 65 32.31% 48.74 72.31% 0.26 0.0811 -1.089
Despicable Theft 2 11 54.55% 25.09 45.45%
Elemental Invocation 1 29 72.41% 29.0 75.86% -1.168
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 289 17.13% 39.56 72.32% -0.07 -0.5698 0.365
Powers Long Forgotten 1 42 73.81% 26.71 57.14% -0.011 0.3988 -0.898
Rituals of Terror 3 29 68.97% 34.45 58.62% 0.276 0.16 -0.411
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 100.0% 27.92 33.33% 0.49
Second Wave 0 338 46.73% 28.08 72.49% -0.151 -0.0345 -0.735
Varied Terrains 2 7 71.43% 37.29 100.0% 0.459 0.9515 0.42
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.0% 32.08 60.0% -0.568

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 317 32.28 58.99% 0.19 0.8549 -0.45
Aid From Lesser Spirits 412 31.88 58.01% -0.401 0.0635 -0.507
All Things Weaken 200 32.23 54.0% -0.701 0.1118 -0.445
Back Against the Wall 352 31.28 57.67% 0.207 0.7535 -0.367
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 19.0 0.0% -0.413 0.5061
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 39.0 100.0% 0.898 1.6902 0.479
Disintegrating Ecosystem 311 29.79 52.09% -1.187 -0.3305 -0.407
Downward Spiral 778 23.48 54.24% -1.187 -0.5078 -0.384
Erosion of Will 312 30.16 56.41% 0.28 1.0867 -0.342
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 82 43.06 82.93% 0.005 -0.2484 0.283
Memory Fades to Dust 741 24.08 53.71% -0.581 0.246 -0.533
Power Corrodes the Spirit 192 33.45 59.38% 0.298 0.9367 -0.047
Promising Farmlands 371 26.51 48.79% -1.75 -0.8547 -0.908
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 31.67 50.0% -0.601 0.0474 -0.592
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 37.0 50.0% 0.344 1.3259 0.246
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 48 41.71 87.5% 0.747 0.2549 0.705
The Border of Life and Death 2 48.0 100.0% 0.258 0.4644
Thriving Communities 170 33.11 57.06% -1.498 -0.6166 -0.569
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.394
Unnatural Proliferation 165 40.14 70.91% 0.223 0.8894 0.156
Untended Land Crumbles 192 31.28 50.52% -0.936 -0.2033 -0.574

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3640 49.53% 28.28 73.05% -0.255 0.6502 -0.059
B 3679 50.57% 29.61 71.65% -0.385 0.4133 0.165
C 3927 50.75% 30.93 72.91% 0.435 1.085 0.119
D 3345 49.0% 27.57 72.74% 0.008 0.8588 -0.249
E 1218 56.13% 34.76 74.55% 0.041 0.7384 0.338
F 1756 52.39% 35.58 74.43% 0.134 0.9043 0.136
G 1372 47.34% 27.67 72.59% -0.152 0.6207 -0.344
H 1342 47.09% 29.12 73.99% 0.187 0.9083 -0.114

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 653 0.0% 14.99 59.11% -0.168 1.0338
Not Using Events or Tokens 1992 45.88% 19.88 69.28% -0.296 -0.0523 -0.307
Skip Initial Invader Actions 341 14.1% 29.38 90.62% 0.501 -0.0766 0.208
Start of Game Growth 466 20.29% 27.89 88.41% 0.261 -0.1987 0.631
Unlimited Undo 1061 37.22% 29.12 82.75% -0.1 -0.2775 1.159
Using Tokens but Not Events 932 39.71% 25.41 78.11% -0.204 -0.2437 0.18

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1296 21.84 15.74%
II 3676 31.08 66.51%
III 3718 34.71 88.89%
IV 1450 37.98 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 204
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3251
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2377
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1434
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 54
Lose: Invader deck ran out 80
Lose: Adversary condition 629
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 103
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1768
Lose: Spirit destroyed 137

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)