Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 5 0.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.374 0.3221
Blitz 0 67 46.27% 25.16 74.63% 0.08 0.2385 -0.566
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 31.34% 50.12 73.13% 0.175 0.0176 -0.827
Despicable Theft 2 11 54.55% 25.09 45.45%
Elemental Invocation 1 29 72.41% 29.0 75.86% -1.15
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 290 17.07% 39.6 72.41% -0.628 -1.266 0.347
Powers Long Forgotten 1 43 72.09% 26.67 58.14% 0.333 0.7848 -0.889
Rituals of Terror 3 29 68.97% 34.45 58.62% 0.077 0.048 -0.374
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 100.0% 27.92 33.33% 0.504
Second Wave 0 350 47.13% 27.87 72.29% -0.097 -0.0293 -0.74
Varied Terrains 2 7 71.43% 37.29 100.0% 0.359 0.8953 0.427
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.0% 32.08 60.0% -0.58

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 323 32.46 59.13% 0.018 0.3075 -0.444
Aid From Lesser Spirits 414 31.83 58.21% -0.413 -0.3291 -0.467
All Things Weaken 204 32.07 53.92% -0.494 -0.0159 -0.389
Attenuated Essence 3 14.0 66.67% -0.276 0.0263
Back Against the Wall 353 31.36 57.79% 0.134 0.3363 -0.35
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 9.5 0.0% -0.554 -0.064
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 32.0 62.5% -0.1 0.2357 0.535
Disintegrating Ecosystem 317 29.67 51.74% -1.262 -0.7052 -0.412
Downward Spiral 792 23.37 53.79% -0.933 -0.5619 -0.427
Erosion of Will 316 29.93 55.7% -0.019 0.4456 -0.522
Intensifying Exploitation 5 27.2 20.0% -0.703 -0.2653 0.062
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 83 42.54 81.93% -0.1 -0.5877 0.312
Memory Fades to Dust 746 23.98 53.75% -0.52 -0.0176 -0.499
Power Corrodes the Spirit 199 33.28 58.79% -0.21 0.1043 -0.076
Promising Farmlands 377 26.37 48.28% -1.848 -1.2247 -0.835
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 31.67 50.0% -0.36 -0.1078 -0.581
Slow Dissolution of Will 6 44.5 83.33% 0.968 1.538 0.633
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 40.75 88.24% 0.952 0.2558 0.73
The Border of Life and Death 3 32.0 66.67% -0.331 -0.4131
Thriving Communities 174 33.32 58.05% 0.063 0.5846 -0.54
Thriving Crops 1 28.0 0.0% -0.135 0.0308
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.382
Unnatural Proliferation 169 39.96 70.41% 0.125 0.4568 0.203
Untended Land Crumbles 192 31.28 50.52% -0.338 0.0519 -0.526

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3723 49.21% 28.01 72.41% -0.504 0.3485 -0.064
B 3747 50.24% 29.42 71.26% -0.397 0.3838 0.16
C 4014 50.62% 30.83 72.7% 0.484 1.1441 0.171
D 3418 48.78% 27.47 72.35% 0.082 0.8874 -0.291
E 1264 55.74% 34.49 74.21% 0.0 0.6342 0.302
F 1797 52.19% 35.46 74.46% 0.335 1.0605 0.135
G 1414 47.42% 27.63 72.42% -0.194 0.5656 -0.346
H 1374 47.01% 29.03 73.87% 0.208 0.8756 -0.074

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 670 0.0% 14.74 58.06% -1.218 -0.3067
Not Using Events or Tokens 2037 45.83% 19.69 68.68% -0.359 -0.0433 -0.326
Skip Initial Invader Actions 349 14.29% 29.43 89.97% 0.501 -0.0453 0.773
Start of Game Growth 475 20.22% 28.01 88.21% 0.59 0.2522 1.119
Unlimited Undo 1087 37.27% 28.84 82.06% -0.028 -0.0601 0.817
Using Tokens but Not Events 957 39.69% 25.15 77.53% -0.236 -0.3013 0.101

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1363 21.15 15.26%
II 3739 31.04 66.46%
III 3806 34.73 88.86%
IV 1467 38.01 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3326
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2417
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1451
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 103
Lose: Invader deck ran out 81
Lose: Adversary condition 637
Win: Sacrifice victory 30
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 105
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1806
Lose: Spirit destroyed 138

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-27 04:08:23 (Pacific Time)