Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 48 64.58% 27.54 -0.781 79.17% 0.121 0.6289
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 44 65.91% 30.57 -5.774 79.55% 0.11 0.5139
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 67.86% 34.75 4.669 63.16% 0.284 1.4612
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 64 74.19% 33.72 -1.469 53.13% -0.308 1.1178
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 31 90.32% 37.97 10.586 45.16% 0.241 1.8218
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 100.0% 45.56 5.61 66.67% -0.429 1.5067
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 45 86.67% 40.2 15.876 35.56% 0.111 2.3824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 302 38.85% 23.62 -3.993 84.77% -0.387 -0.4338
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 275 37.0% 29.79 0.379 88.36% 0.501 0.2685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 329 45.68% 37.14 3.402 84.8% -0.007 0.1825
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 236 58.62% 39.94 7.675 73.31% 0.68 1.0465
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 150 53.02% 46.94 4.541 82.0% -0.834 -0.4752
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 89 64.77% 47.19 7.239 66.29% -0.446 0.7204
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 155 81.94% 45.57 9.806 53.55% 0.094 1.5401
The Kingdom of England 0 1 211 35.71% 23.84 -2.731 80.57% 0.092 0.6487
The Kingdom of England 1 3 175 54.6% 30.26 0.484 75.43% -0.531 0.1475
The Kingdom of England 2 4 185 52.72% 31.26 -5.526 64.32% -0.694 0.4596
The Kingdom of England 3 6 179 65.36% 33.2 -0.857 50.84% -0.832 0.8446
The Kingdom of England 4 7 149 62.59% 36.66 12.04 48.99% 0.15 1.6176
The Kingdom of England 5 9 65 75.38% 40.77 10.745 41.54% 0.069 2.1127
The Kingdom of England 6 11 186 69.35% 42.66 13.181 37.63% -0.327 2.2359
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 108 50.0% 26.4 -3.373 74.07% -0.472 0.2013
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 113 58.93% 27.93 0.065 65.49% 0.039 1.1108
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 170 64.71% 30.0 1.757 44.12% -0.688 1.427
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 151 64.24% 39.71 6.395 53.64% -0.107 2.023
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 84 64.29% 38.81 2.216 42.86% -0.672 1.6726
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 58 79.31% 39.57 7.183 37.93% -0.208 1.8574
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 736 67.26% 58.59 10.265 68.75% -0.22 1.9545
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 10 20.0% 29.9 -2.903 100.0% 0.048 -0.0452
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 20.0% 34.8 0.384 100.0% 0.012 0.9023
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 10 10.0% 33.7 4.154 60.0% 0.297 1.4997
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 53.85% 36.23 5.061 53.85% -0.389 0.47
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 66.67% 46.17 7.384 83.33% 0.232 1.4494
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 75.0% 59.0 11.219 100.0% 0.108 1.3467
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 35 71.43% 59.26 11.949 80.0% -0.051 1.507
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 144 38.3% 22.9 -5.33 85.42% -0.392 -0.2216
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 120 45.83% 28.66 5.187 87.5% 0.347 0.5664
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 151 55.63% 31.0 -6.774 79.47% -0.634 -0.3545
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 148 60.81% 38.63 -0.546 77.03% -0.49 -0.0388
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 88 71.59% 34.76 -4.417 59.09% -1.106 -0.1057
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 79.49% 35.79 1.589 56.41% -0.299 0.7423
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 270 70.74% 47.82 3.703 74.07% -0.642 0.5168
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 42 26.19% 28.07 -9.072 88.1% -0.353 -0.8055
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 39 56.41% 30.36 -3.346 71.79% -0.323 0.4799
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 36 55.56% 37.58 4.368 80.56% 0.321 0.7574
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 53 67.92% 38.45 6.063 60.38% 0.153 1.3919
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 26 69.23% 48.08 12.552 76.92% 0.082 1.2254
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 17 94.12% 35.71 7.94 29.41% -0.371 1.7646
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 65 89.23% 47.34 2.277 38.46% -1.245 0.726

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.328 0.8233
Blitz 0 61 42.62% 26.33 75.41% 0.173 0.6161 -0.447
Dahan Insurrection 4 64 32.81% 48.72 71.88% -0.409 -0.3118 -1.006
Despicable Theft 2 11 54.55% 25.09 45.45%
Elemental Invocation 1 29 72.41% 29.0 75.86% 0.132 0.6773 -1.158
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 285 17.38% 39.76 72.63% 0.621 0.8527 0.279
Powers Long Forgotten 1 38 76.32% 26.21 55.26% -0.865
Rituals of Terror 3 27 70.37% 34.19 55.56% -0.427
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 24 100.0% 27.92 33.33% 0.477
Second Wave 0 324 46.89% 28.18 72.84% -0.301 0.3918 -0.685
Varied Terrains 2 4 100.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.291 1.0776
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.0% 32.08 60.0% -0.539

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 303 32.14 58.75% -0.479 1.4917 -0.569
Aid From Lesser Spirits 392 31.68 57.65% -0.933 0.8444 -0.555
All Things Weaken 184 32.9 54.35% -1.644 0.4052 -0.613
Back Against the Wall 331 31.4 56.8% 0.396 2.3348 -0.402
Disintegrating Ecosystem 297 29.83 52.86% -1.238 0.8904 -0.42
Downward Spiral 754 23.56 54.77% -1.724 0.2367 -0.311
Erosion of Will 298 29.88 55.7% -0.905 1.1765 -0.487
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 76 44.2 84.21% 0.179 0.6811 0.33
Memory Fades to Dust 702 24.28 54.13% -1.553 0.588 -0.473
Power Corrodes the Spirit 187 33.45 58.82% -0.009 1.9718 -0.147
Promising Farmlands 361 26.7 49.86% -1.084 0.938 -0.919
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 41.04 86.96% 0.44 0.9366 0.69
Thriving Communities 160 33.65 57.5% -1.02 1.0388 -0.645
Tipping Point 110 25.45 42.73% -0.362
Unnatural Proliferation 157 39.71 70.06% -0.528 1.4293 0.104
Untended Land Crumbles 183 31.67 51.91% -0.948 1.0853 -0.714

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3497 49.42% 28.4 73.61% -0.215 0.521 -0.09
B 3489 50.08% 29.76 72.4% -0.435 0.2621 0.19
C 3805 50.72% 30.9 73.04% 0.047 0.5169 0.073
D 3224 48.83% 27.75 73.08% 0.04 0.7496 -0.254
E 1133 56.23% 35.42 75.46% 0.048 0.5923 0.423
F 1668 52.36% 35.79 74.82% -0.614 0.0476 0.076
G 1305 47.44% 27.88 73.33% 0.656 1.2865 -0.357
H 1283 47.44% 29.1 73.89% 0.489 1.1536 -0.068

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 641 0.0% 15.01 59.13% -1.457 0.7723
Not Using Events or Tokens 1929 45.32% 19.96 69.88% -0.281 -0.0547 -0.193
Skip Initial Invader Actions 335 13.97% 29.4 90.75% 0.555 -0.4254 0.213
Start of Game Growth 453 20.35% 28.03 88.74% 0.421 -0.0353 0.635
Unlimited Undo 1007 37.03% 29.54 84.01% 0.681 0.1294 1.306
Using Tokens but Not Events 892 40.13% 25.37 78.36% -0.391 -0.236 0.262

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1212 22.65 16.58%
II 3522 31.08 66.78%
III 3577 34.66 88.99%
IV 1392 37.91 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 201
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3129
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2285
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1377
Lose: Invader deck ran out 75
Lose: Adversary condition 594
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 102
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1708
Lose: Spirit destroyed 130

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)