Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 32 62.5% 26.0 -0.842 84.38% 0.342 0.6254
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 22 72.73% 29.91 1.438 77.27% 0.325 0.7195
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 27 76.92% 35.44 4.009 70.37% -0.155 0.7057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 31 68.97% 32.42 2.088 48.39% -1.139 0.1111
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 90.0% 37.6 4.408 45.0% -1.272 0.2622
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 100.0% 42.6 7.835 60.0% -0.161 1.9075
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 34 94.12% 36.59 4.418 29.41% -1.836 0.2418
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 215 38.86% 23.5 -1.187 84.19% 0.338 0.3805
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 183 37.91% 29.26 1.445 86.89% 0.515 0.4895
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 186 46.2% 36.81 4.931 84.95% 0.383 0.3827
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 154 54.61% 41.06 7.533 75.97% 0.129 0.4219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 108 49.07% 47.36 9.989 81.48% 0.148 0.5184
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 54 66.04% 48.37 11.462 68.52% -0.259 0.5789
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 114 79.82% 45.62 9.909 54.39% -0.81 0.4381
The Kingdom of England 0 1 152 38.41% 22.61 -1.774 76.97% -0.202 0.1289
The Kingdom of England 1 3 108 50.47% 30.57 2.334 76.85% 0.114 0.6035
The Kingdom of England 2 4 112 52.25% 31.35 2.611 65.18% -0.667 0.2972
The Kingdom of England 3 6 127 67.72% 33.08 3.518 50.39% -1.097 0.4829
The Kingdom of England 4 7 98 61.46% 36.3 4.792 47.96% -1.49 0.0239
The Kingdom of England 5 9 43 69.77% 40.28 6.384 39.53% -1.731 0.3403
The Kingdom of England 6 11 121 68.6% 42.17 7.082 36.36% -1.988 0.2695
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 81 45.68% 26.96 -0.215 76.54% -0.272 0.253
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 68 59.7% 28.87 1.188 66.18% -0.406 0.4826
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 97 58.76% 29.73 1.513 44.33% -1.687 0.4405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 105 68.57% 41.21 7.008 57.14% -0.915 1.2689
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 63 66.67% 37.41 5.662 39.68% -1.799 0.3514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 47 76.6% 40.6 7.548 40.43% -1.259 0.5671
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 334 65.87% 54.81 13.084 61.08% -0.988 1.1402
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 98 35.71% 23.17 -1.826 87.76% 0.442 0.5305
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 79 41.77% 28.77 1.309 89.87% 0.888 0.8989
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 108 57.41% 30.59 2.167 79.63% 0.254 0.4732
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 105 57.14% 39.27 6.08 76.19% 0.111 0.394
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 55 65.45% 34.4 3.951 56.36% -0.884 -0.1137
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 24 79.17% 35.58 5.203 54.17% -0.471 0.6964
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 167 68.86% 47.33 10.02 73.05% -0.143 0.989
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 20 25.0% 25.05 -1.557 90.0% 0.164 0.0417
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 15 53.33% 31.47 1.25 80.0% -0.032 0.6832
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 28.5 -0.101 66.67% -0.293 0.1453
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 24 62.5% 38.96 5.183 62.5% -0.728 0.5314
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 75.0% 47.75 10.119 75.0% 0.143 1.2831
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 100.0% 24.33 -2.678 0.0% -1.981 0.08
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 43 90.7% 48.16 9.572 44.19% -1.406 0.5298

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 69 58.21% 24.99 -2.491 56.52% -0.8 -0.223
Dahan Insurrection 4 85 24.71% 51.01 10.522 77.65% -0.434 -0.0337
Elemental Invocation 1 11 63.64% 27.55 -0.431 90.91% 0.563 0.9443
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 262 10.73% 38.64 3.543 74.05% -0.865 -0.4991
Powers Long Forgotten 1 37 70.27% 28.03 -0.439 62.16% -0.391 0.0506
Rituals of Terror 3 28 57.14% 35.46 3.803 60.71% -0.511 0.1171
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 19 100.0% 28.84 -0.335 31.58% -0.886 -0.2364
Second Wave 0 287 47.55% 27.21 -0.959 70.03% -0.843 -0.4265
Ward the Shores 2 25 48.0% 30.04 0.512 60.0% -0.878 0.1586

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 205 30.82 -0.96 55.61% -1.97 0.1003
Aid From Lesser Spirits 255 31.13 -0.494 57.25% -1.926 -0.0074
All Things Weaken 83 33.33 -0.008 62.65% -1.536 0.6188
Back Against the Wall 228 28.99 -1.859 52.19% -2.162 -0.0659
Disintegrating Ecosystem 188 27.56 -2.826 49.47% -2.342 -0.1182
Downward Spiral 519 22.09 -3.254 53.76% -2.16 -0.143
Erosion of Will 187 27.52 -1.933 55.08% -2.218 -0.0085
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 28 50.43 7.089 85.71% -0.25 0.4549
Memory Fades to Dust 493 23.26 -2.869 53.96% -2.149 0.0657
Power Corrodes the Spirit 85 35.15 0.16 63.53% -1.701 0.3192
Promising Farmlands 242 24.54 -3.672 45.45% -2.432 -0.2198
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19 34.68 0.722 78.95% -0.811 -0.3751
Thriving Communities 72 30.46 -2.502 45.83% -2.316 -0.218
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.974 42.73% -2.303 -0.0844
Unnatural Proliferation 68 40.49 2.287 69.12% -1.486 0.592
Untended Land Crumbles 74 30.09 -2.312 47.3% -2.43 -0.3318

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2438 48.13% 27.95 -0.098 73.71% 0.092 -0.9974
B 2342 47.51% 27.85 -0.296 71.95% -0.063 -1.2488
C 2535 49.38% 29.29 0.363 72.35% 0.024 -1.3913
D 2318 48.09% 27.32 -0.569 72.22% -0.067 -1.2443
E 526 59.53% 34.56 1.501 76.05% 0.308 -0.9687
F 905 49.48% 32.34 0.679 73.7% 0.004 -1.2387
G 762 46.44% 28.09 -0.573 73.23% -0.148 -1.3789
H 768 49.39% 29.61 -0.001 72.01% -0.128 -1.368

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 449 0.0% 15.22 -4.871 61.02% -2.146 -0.1021
Not Using Events or Tokens 1338 45.73% 20.05 -2.919 70.1% -0.215 0.0039
Skip Initial Invader Actions 254 11.83% 29.74 1.61 92.52% 0.706 0.0019
Start of Game Growth 332 18.58% 28.25 0.571 91.27% 0.575 0.1205
Unlimited Undo 665 35.12% 29.68 1.049 84.81% 0.58 0.1676
Using Tokens but Not Events 631 39.49% 25.52 -1.397 77.5% 0.059 0.0114

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 836 22.34 18.66%
II 2308 30.75 66.59%
III 2271 34.26 88.64%
IV 882 37.47 99.55%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 72
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1414
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1002
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 631
Lose: Invader deck ran out 50
Lose: Adversary condition 365
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Scenario condition 58
Win: Scenario condition 81
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1153
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)