Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 36 63.89% 26.25 -0.838 83.33% 0.236 0.5248
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 28 75.0% 30.21 1.423 78.57% 0.338 0.752
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 32 70.97% 35.16 3.757 68.75% -0.329 0.5541
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 68.75% 35.48 3.23 58.0% -0.942 0.2999
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 22 90.91% 36.68 3.832 40.91% -1.373 0.1235
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 7 100.0% 46.29 9.317 71.43% 0.13 2.0689
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 39 92.31% 37.41 4.414 30.77% -1.965 0.0775
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 249 39.51% 23.36 -1.347 83.94% 0.31 0.3509
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 217 36.11% 29.58 1.431 88.02% 0.572 0.5538
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 227 48.89% 36.15 4.409 83.26% 0.247 0.2606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 183 56.91% 40.12 6.932 73.22% -0.062 0.2213
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 120 50.83% 47.61 9.97 83.33% 0.266 0.6248
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 67 68.18% 46.9 10.401 65.67% -0.429 0.3962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 132 81.82% 44.16 9.003 50.76% -0.971 0.2682
The Kingdom of England 0 1 174 36.99% 22.89 -1.774 78.74% -0.169 0.1605
The Kingdom of England 1 3 124 52.85% 30.38 2.2 76.61% 0.132 0.6491
The Kingdom of England 2 4 130 51.94% 31.21 2.47 63.85% -0.813 0.1607
The Kingdom of England 3 6 148 66.89% 32.79 3.278 49.32% -1.193 0.3868
The Kingdom of England 4 7 121 59.66% 35.52 4.137 45.45% -1.727 -0.2326
The Kingdom of England 5 9 47 68.09% 41.57 6.87 42.55% -1.685 0.3851
The Kingdom of England 6 11 151 70.2% 41.53 6.641 35.1% -2.141 0.103
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 88 48.86% 26.45 -0.538 75.0% -0.354 0.1577
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 84 61.45% 26.68 -0.177 59.52% -0.763 0.1391
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 111 60.36% 29.99 1.316 44.14% -1.739 0.4024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 117 68.38% 40.45 6.494 55.56% -1.063 1.1357
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 68 66.18% 37.97 5.705 41.18% -1.817 0.3441
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 50 78.0% 40.34 7.284 40.0% -1.321 0.4965
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 480 68.33% 56.44 13.617 65.0% -0.839 1.2523
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 115 35.65% 23.35 -1.824 88.7% 0.483 0.5712
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 96 43.75% 28.47 0.892 88.54% 0.766 0.8012
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 127 57.48% 30.22 1.721 78.74% 0.155 0.3929
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 120 60.0% 39.67 6.173 79.17% 0.249 0.5392
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 68 67.65% 35.21 3.929 60.29% -0.778 0.003
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 29 79.31% 34.69 4.177 51.72% -0.74 0.4281
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 202 69.8% 46.96 9.504 72.77% -0.227 0.8959
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 24 25.0% 24.25 -1.862 87.5% 0.08 -0.0083
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 27 51.85% 29.44 0.335 74.07% -0.408 0.3712
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 17 64.71% 39.18 4.486 82.35% 0.306 0.7176
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 66.67% 37.09 4.4 57.58% -0.948 0.2964
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 14 78.57% 48.79 10.619 78.57% 0.236 1.3441
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 100.0% 34.33 2.064 25.0% -1.686 0.2981
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 53 88.68% 48.28 9.498 43.4% -1.468 0.4039

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 79 57.14% 24.08 -2.91 58.23% -0.832 -0.2664
Dahan Insurrection 4 98 25.51% 50.11 10.131 76.53% -0.468 -0.0679
Despicable Theft 2 8 50.0% 26.5 -2.776 50.0% -1.213 -0.9394
Elemental Invocation 1 24 70.83% 31.33 0.12 79.17% 0.217 0.7197
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 300 12.71% 39.26 3.712 75.33% -0.771 -0.4065
Powers Long Forgotten 1 46 73.91% 26.65 -1.185 60.87% -0.56 -0.1137
Rituals of Terror 3 32 56.25% 34.63 3.428 59.38% -0.64 0.0046
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 23 100.0% 28.57 -0.323 34.78% -0.866 -0.2194
Second Wave 0 314 47.6% 27.32 -0.93 70.38% -0.833 -0.403
Ward the Shores 2 29 55.17% 28.9 -0.206 51.72% -1.055 -0.0235

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 243 31.37 -0.855 57.61% -1.878 0.1916
Aid From Lesser Spirits 304 31.17 -0.639 58.55% -1.893 0.0194
All Things Weaken 114 32.62 -0.808 57.89% -1.835 0.3241
Back Against the Wall 268 29.64 -1.825 53.36% -2.134 -0.0465
Disintegrating Ecosystem 231 28.26 -2.681 50.22% -2.308 -0.0861
Downward Spiral 604 22.42 -3.175 54.3% -2.107 -0.0852
Erosion of Will 228 29.2 -1.472 56.14% -2.105 0.1023
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 52 45.21 4.224 80.77% -0.752 -0.0731
Memory Fades to Dust 575 23.31 -2.929 52.7% -2.194 0.0213
Power Corrodes the Spirit 131 33.32 -0.919 57.25% -1.958 0.0632
Promising Farmlands 281 25.34 -3.393 48.4% -2.278 -0.0697
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 40.27 2.626 80.77% -0.7 -0.2888
Thriving Communities 99 31.57 -2.416 48.48% -2.349 -0.2604
Tipping Point 110 25.45 -2.973 42.73% -2.283 -0.0583
Unnatural Proliferation 111 39.75 1.973 69.37% -1.506 0.5751
Untended Land Crumbles 105 30.14 -2.339 46.67% -2.46 -0.3581

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2802 49.04% 28.06 -0.211 73.23% 0.067 -0.6208
B 2737 49.47% 28.32 -0.275 71.5% -0.064 -0.848
C 2957 50.62% 29.75 0.355 72.2% 0.017 -0.9956
D 2632 48.42% 27.57 -0.551 72.83% -0.028 -0.8053
E 746 59.37% 35.36 1.598 75.47% 0.274 -0.6202
F 1144 51.09% 33.5 0.915 73.78% 0.02 -0.8212
G 952 49.11% 27.97 -0.723 72.06% -0.163 -0.9953
H 954 50.11% 29.2 -0.25 72.33% -0.102 -0.9415

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 512 0.0% 15.18 -4.88 60.74% -2.152 -0.099
Not Using Events or Tokens 1551 45.62% 19.95 -3.017 69.89% -0.235 -0.0204
Skip Initial Invader Actions 293 13.46% 29.44 1.511 91.47% 0.666 -0.0205
Start of Game Growth 392 18.37% 28.23 0.559 90.56% 0.49 0.0207
Unlimited Undo 799 36.34% 29.58 0.884 84.36% 0.552 0.129
Using Tokens but Not Events 712 40.51% 25.29 -1.62 77.67% 0.053 0.0025

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 972 22.37 17.39%
II 2724 30.88 66.01%
III 2709 34.39 88.7%
IV 1057 37.55 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 85
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1800
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1256
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 804
Lose: Invader deck ran out 61
Lose: Adversary condition 449
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 64
Win: Scenario condition 90
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1361
Lose: Spirit destroyed 105

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)