Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
94	16.67%	37.22	91.49%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	54	16.67%	28.81	94.44%	0.052	-0.1068	-0.49
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1	0.0%	34.0	0.0%			-0.266
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	30	28.57%	28.23	96.67%	-0.004	-0.1715
Downpour Drenches the World	9	16.67%	35.56	88.89%	0.253	0.4322	0.163
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	4	50.0%	34.75	75.0%	0.299	-0.4227	0.116
Eyes Watch From the Trees	12	8.33%	60.0	100.0%	0.159	-0.4299	0.364
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3	0.0%	18.67	66.67%	-0.414	-0.8854	-0.785
Finder of Paths Unseen	4	25.0%	43.0	75.0%	0.15	0.8444	-0.266
Fractured Days Split the Sky	4	0.0%	30.5	75.0%	-0.056	0.6283	-0.224
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.116	-0.2167
Heart of the Wildfire	5	80.0%	28.6	80.0%	-0.2	0.0441
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	47	11.43%	47.51	91.49%	-0.254	-0.7043	0.273
Lightning's Swift Strike	34	8.33%	28.44	94.12%	0.285	0.4884	-0.266
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	35.0	50.0%	-0.161	-0.4006
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	26	11.54%	61.65	88.46%	-0.133	-0.2928	0.497
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	6	50.0%	22.5	83.33%	-0.116	-0.2606
Many Minds Move as One	4	25.0%	68.5	100.0%			0.213
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	69	12.5%	41.61	92.75%	0.18	0.1709	0.231
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	31	0.0%	28.42	96.77%	0.022	-0.1193
River Surges in Sunlight	55	6.25%	44.65	94.55%	0.369	0.3718	0.231
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	0.0%	45.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	2	0.0%	12.0	50.0%	-0.206	-0.3356	-0.224
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	5	60.0%	28.2	80.0%	-0.002	-0.2157
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	100.0%	12.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	100.0%	70.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	3	33.33%	21.33	100.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	25.0%	12.5	25.0%	-0.657	-0.2497	-0.224
Shroud of Silent Mist	3	33.33%	21.67	66.67%	-0.116	0.1993
Starlight Seeks its Form	7	42.86%	27.57	71.43%	-0.232	-0.5046	0.074
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	12	16.67%	52.67	100.0%	0.15	-0.3448	0.439
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	50	14.29%	36.48	96.0%	0.309	0.3392	-0.001
Thunderspeaker	7	40.0%	34.71	100.0%	0.497	0.4776	0.076
Thunderspeaker — Tactician	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.116	-0.1787
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	2	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.277	-0.2153
Vital Strength of the Earth	49	0.0%	27.16	95.92%	0.056	0.6091	-0.224
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	2	50.0%	27.0	100.0%	0.187	0.4426
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	1	100.0%	70.0	100.0%
Volcano Looming High	10	0.0%	50.2	90.0%	0.133	0.1427	0.335

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	0.0	-1.171	0.0%	-0.116	0.095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	66.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	42.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	5	0.0%	68.4		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	2	0.0%	17.0	-14.074	0.0%	-0.414	1.6048
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	53.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	13	7.69%	69.85	13.112	92.31%	0.48	1.8365
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	0.0%	71.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	0.0%	0.0	-4.719	0.0%	-0.161	0.0709
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	1	0.0%	48.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	6	16.67%	49.67	-16.972	83.33%	-0.335	0.47

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	43	0.0%	27.47	100.0%	0.662	0.8083
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	31.0	100.0%
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.206	0.282	-0.224
Second Wave	0	2	50.0%	27.0	100.0%	0.159	0.2216
The Great River	3	12	27.27%	25.5	58.33%	-0.695	0.6532	-0.266
Ward the Shores	2	4	0.0%	30.75	100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	12.0	100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	50.0	100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust	1	0.0	0.0%	-0.35	0.131
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	24.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	25.0	100.0%	0.159	0.7449
Shattered Fragments of Power	1	38.0	100.0%	0.28	0.4584
Thriving Communities	3	55.0	100.0%			0.058

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	82	12.0%	38.54	91.46%	-0.014	0.8256	0.007
B	58	27.59%	29.29	91.38%	-0.074	0.7049	-0.093
C	72	13.33%	39.68	90.28%	-0.517	0.1368	0.007
D	84	16.67%	38.19	90.48%	-0.536	0.2628	0.007
E	71	13.04%	39.72	90.14%	0.252	0.8805	0.007
F	61	17.24%	29.95	90.16%	0.22	0.9394	-0.279
G	61	18.18%	37.98	91.8%	0.211	0.9525	-0.111
H	72	17.07%	40.85	95.83%	0.502	1.1506	0.497

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	40	0.0%	28.0	100.0%	0.127	1.0102
Skip Initial Invader Actions	48	0.0%	28.46	97.92%	0.217	-0.3181
Start of Game Growth	53	15.38%	27.89	96.23%	0.243	-0.0869
Unlimited Undo	52	0.0%	27.98	98.08%	0.314	0.2921
Using Tokens but Not Events	50	0.0%	27.74	98.0%	0.314	0.2601

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	38	21.03	78.95%
II	37	31.04	100.0%
III	17	34.74	100.0%
IV	2	38.02	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	30
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	16
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	34
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	2
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	7
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.