Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
108	13.24%	37.59	89.81%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	59	13.04%	29.64	94.92%	0.307	0.1596	-0.109
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1	0.0%	34.0	0.0%			-0.143
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	31	25.0%	27.9	96.77%	-0.17	-0.3152
Downpour Drenches the World	9	16.67%	35.56	88.89%	0.264	0.4433	0.229
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	5	40.0%	27.8	60.0%	0.086	-0.6788	0.016
Eyes Watch From the Trees	13	7.69%	55.38	92.31%	-0.06	-0.6488	0.289
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	5	0.0%	23.4	60.0%	-0.249	-0.7461	-1.258
Finder of Paths Unseen	5	20.0%	34.4	60.0%	-0.451	0.2128	-0.798
Fractured Days Split the Sky	7	0.0%	38.71	71.43%	0.116	0.7021	-0.121
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.121	-0.2159
Heart of the Wildfire	6	66.67%	26.83	83.33%	-0.164	0.0777
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	55	9.3%	48.25	89.09%	-0.076	-0.5178	0.359
Lightning's Swift Strike	37	6.67%	28.59	94.59%	0.12	0.3034	-0.143
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	35.0	50.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	34	8.82%	59.53	85.29%	-0.022	-0.1354	0.534
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	6	50.0%	22.5	83.33%	-0.121	-0.2535
Many Minds Move as One	5	20.0%	68.8	100.0%	0.222	0.0006	0.358
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	83	9.26%	41.35	90.36%	0.269	0.2269	0.165
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	32	0.0%	28.5	96.88%	-0.037	-0.2146
River Surges in Sunlight	67	4.55%	44.76	92.54%	0.563	0.6327	0.391
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	0.0%	45.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	0.0%	14.0	66.67%	-0.233	-0.3468	-0.175
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	5	60.0%	28.2	80.0%	0.138	-0.0997
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	100.0%	12.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	2	50.0%	44.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	25.0%	16.0	75.0%	-0.198	-0.3878	-0.227
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	1	0.0%	18.0	100.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	25.0%	12.5	25.0%	-0.859	-0.5053	-0.175
Shroud of Silent Mist	3	33.33%	21.67	66.67%	-0.121	0.129
Starlight Seeks its Form	7	42.86%	27.57	71.43%	-0.086	-0.3473	0.104
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	13	15.38%	54.0	100.0%	0.358	-0.1189	0.582
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	56	11.11%	36.11	94.64%	0.134	0.1969	0.025
Thunderspeaker	7	40.0%	34.71	100.0%	0.4	0.3661	0.1
Thunderspeaker — Tactician	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.121	-0.1605
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	3	0.0%	20.33	33.33%	0.218	0.3111
Vital Strength of the Earth	53	0.0%	27.42	96.23%	0.0	0.5247	-0.175
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	2	50.0%	27.0	100.0%	0.163	0.423
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	1	100.0%	70.0	100.0%
Volcano Looming High	15	0.0%	52.4	86.67%	-0.022	-0.065	0.337

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	0.0	-2.085	0.0%	-0.121	0.1419
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	66.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	2	0.0%	42.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	5	0.0%	68.4		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	0.0%	11.33	-24.06	0.0%	-0.588	1.4535
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	53.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	14	7.14%	70.29	10.641	92.86%	0.409	1.7525
The Kingdom of Scotland	1	3	1	0.0%	0.0	-7.614	0.0%	-0.198	0.2323
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	6	0.0%	59.17	3.945	83.33%	0.175	1.451
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	0.0%	0.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	3	5	1	0.0%	48.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	7	14.29%	51.29	-6.955	85.71%	-0.165	0.7222

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	47	0.0%	27.72	100.0%	0.65	0.8475
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	31.0	100.0%
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.233	0.4019	-0.175
Second Wave	0	2	50.0%	27.0	100.0%	0.138	0.2038
The Great River	3	13	25.0%	23.54	53.85%	-0.797	0.4207	-0.37
Ward the Shores	2	4	0.0%	30.75	100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	12.0	100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	50.0	100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust	1	0.0	0.0%	-0.35	-0.0136
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	24.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	25.0	100.0%	0.138	0.5909
Shattered Fragments of Power	1	38.0	100.0%	0.264	0.315
Thriving Communities	3	55.0	100.0%			0.059

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	95	9.52%	38.84	89.47%	-0.02	0.7196	-0.01
B	65	22.22%	29.37	90.77%	-0.013	0.7132	-0.097
C	85	10.34%	39.85	88.24%	-0.513	0.0696	-0.01
D	97	13.11%	38.56	88.66%	-0.46	0.2516	-0.01
E	83	10.34%	39.99	87.95%	0.178	0.7431	-0.01
F	69	13.51%	30.16	88.41%	-0.028	0.6418	-0.56
G	67	15.38%	38.78	91.04%	0.17	0.8212	0.101
H	83	13.46%	41.6	93.98%	0.736	1.3068	0.534

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	40	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	52	0.0%	28.62	98.08%	0.151	-0.4669
Start of Game Growth	57	11.76%	28.07	96.49%	0.172	-0.1761
Unlimited Undo	56	0.0%	28.16	98.21%	0.258	0.2518
Using Tokens but Not Events	54	0.0%	27.94	98.15%	0.258	0.2481

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	45	20.4	75.56%
II	41	31.01	100.0%
III	20	34.76	100.0%
IV	2	38.07	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	34
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	38
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	2
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	10
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.