Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.271 0.0% -0.275 0.4998
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 22.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 0.0% 28.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2 50.0% 10.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 0.0% 68.17 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 0.0% 20.0 0.728 50.0% 0.129 0.4567
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 44.0 0.621 100.0% 0.094 0.3978
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 51.0 2.375 100.0% 0.095 0.8232
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 0.0% 4.86 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 53.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 4.76% 57.95 11.051 76.19% 0.166 1.5866
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 29 0.0% 56.1 0.759 79.31% -0.106 0.8608
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 34.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10 10.0% 35.9 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 58.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 50 0.0% 27.82 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0%
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.154
Second Wave 0 6 16.67% 28.83 83.33% -0.023 0.0585
The Great River 3 29 10.71% 15.28 34.48% -0.147 1.2409 -0.728
Ward the Shores 2 4 0.0% 30.75 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 12.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 1 20.0 0.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 50.0 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 1 0.0 0.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 24.0 100.0%
Promising Farmlands 2 12.5 50.0% -0.731
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 38.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 3 55.0 100.0% 0.155

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 153 6.61% 36.93 76.47% 0.003 0.9082 0.218
B 86 15.79% 23.79 73.26% -0.375 0.4534 -0.893
C 143 6.9% 37.18 74.13% 0.003 0.6833 -0.14
D 145 9.17% 37.58 76.55% -0.215 0.6382 0.232
E 137 7.14% 37.78 75.18% 0.278 0.9797 0.051
F 110 6.41% 32.72 79.09% 0.003 0.7845 -0.239
G 94 12.12% 34.4 76.6% 0.043 0.8146 0.183
H 135 7.69% 39.95 81.48% 0.278 1.0468 0.538

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 40 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57 0.0% 28.33 96.49%
Start of Game Growth 65 8.0% 28.65 95.38% 0.318 -0.2206
Unlimited Undo 64 0.0% 26.63 92.19% -0.135
Using Tokens but Not Events 61 0.0% 26.82 93.44% 0.145

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 75 16.23 49.33%
II 55 30.54 98.18%
III 32 34.77 100.0%
IV 6 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 31
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 51
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 37
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 4
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)