Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 100.0% 51.0 2.424 100.0% 0.06 0.3439
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 47.71 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 0.0% 28.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 30.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2 50.0% 10.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 100.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 0.0% 63.71 85.71%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 2 0.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 25.5 -2.663 50.0% -0.28 0.2865
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 4.35% 40.17 52.17%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 27.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 50.0% 10.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 28 3.57% 63.21 82.14%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 26.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 57 0.0% 57.26 5.22 80.7% 0.056 1.2545
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 0.0% 17.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 34.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 15 13.33% 41.8 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 58.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 22.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 51 0.0% 28.0 98.04%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2 0.0% 15.5 50.0%
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Second Wave 0 8 12.5% 26.75 75.0%
The Great River 3 49 12.5% 16.04 36.73% -0.167 0.9624
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 31.2 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 58.0 100.0% 0.019
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 12.0 100.0%
Attenuated Essence 1 51.0 100.0% 0.06 0.1855
Back Against the Wall 2 35.0 50.0%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 61.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 27.5 50.0%
Erosion of Will 2 34.5 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 4 29.25 50.0% 0.052 0.2577 0.105
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 32.67 66.67%
Promising Farmlands 2 12.5 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 52.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 4 57.75 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 12.0 100.0% 0.067 0.1562

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 248 10.65% 39.9 74.6% 0.003 0.8027 0.008
B 127 19.39% 22.78 65.35% -0.053 0.6776 -0.249
C 240 10.33% 39.6 71.67% -0.049 0.5551 0.008
D 234 10.1% 40.21 73.5% -0.157 0.5999 0.008
E 225 10.5% 39.6 72.44% -0.1 0.484 -0.303
F 185 13.07% 37.13 75.68% -0.063 0.6392 0.2
G 143 15.65% 36.59 74.13% 0.283 1.0402 0.368
H 214 8.74% 43.56 78.97% 0.156 0.7874 0.008

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 40 0.0% 28.0 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 62 0.0% 27.21 91.94% -0.28 -0.571
Start of Game Growth 69 6.9% 28.03 92.75% -0.28 -0.8364
Unlimited Undo 67 0.0% 26.51 91.04% -0.28 -0.216
Using Tokens but Not Events 66 0.0% 26.59 90.91%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 104 12.44 35.58%
II 90 29.94 96.67%
III 64 34.9 98.44%
IV 14 38.84 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 62
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 83
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 64
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Lose: Scenario condition 2
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)