Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
41	15.38%	45.1	97.56%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	22	28.57%	30.45	95.45%	-0.161	-0.2758	-0.388
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1	0.0%	34.0	0.0%	-0.474	-0.3778	-0.388
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	9	33.33%	33.0	100.0%	0.058	-0.1035
Downpour Drenches the World	3	0.0%	56.67	100.0%	0.062	0.3152	0.066
Eyes Watch From the Trees	10	0.0%	66.6	100.0%	0.083	-0.3547	0.193
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	0.0%	27.0	100.0%	0.008	-0.4796
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	0.0%	34.0	0.0%	-0.474	-0.1102	-0.388
Fractured Days Split the Sky	2	0.0%	51.0	100.0%	0.032	0.0882
Heart of the Wildfire	2	100.0%	26.5	100.0%	0.049	0.224
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	29	4.76%	52.93	100.0%	0.277	-0.1791	0.392
Lightning's Swift Strike	15	33.33%	29.13	93.33%	-0.271	0.0034	-0.388
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	16	0.0%	69.88	100.0%	0.167	-0.0997	0.392
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	4	75.0%	26.5	100.0%	0.128	-0.1385
Many Minds Move as One	3	0.0%	69.33	100.0%	0.029	-0.5743	0.066
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	29	10.0%	51.93	96.55%	-0.14	-0.3248	0.004
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	8	0.0%	29.75	100.0%	0.058	0.0786
River Surges in Sunlight	25	5.56%	55.16	96.0%	-0.191	-0.2253	0.004
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	0.0%	45.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	1	0.0%	24.0	100.0%	0.011	-0.2895
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	3	66.67%	38.67	100.0%	0.09	0.0371
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	100.0%	12.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	3	33.33%	21.33	100.0%	0.038	-0.2484
Shifting Memory of Ages	1	100.0%	50.0	100.0%	0.04	0.1154
Shroud of Silent Mist	2	50.0%	32.5	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	3	33.33%	35.67	100.0%	0.038	-0.101	0.036
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	9	11.11%	55.33	100.0%	0.038	-0.1437	0.187
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	17	22.22%	45.82	100.0%	0.226	0.411	0.199
Thunderspeaker	3	50.0%	26.0	100.0%	0.06	0.1246
Vital Strength of the Earth	17	0.0%	28.0	100.0%	0.185	0.9931
Volcano Looming High	4	0.0%	38.5	100.0%	0.066	0.0615	0.036

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	1	0.0%	53.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	5	0.0%	68.4	2.243	100.0%	0.024	1.5992
The Kingdom of England	6	11	1	0.0%	34.0	-2.124	0.0%	-0.474	1.8252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	53.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	7	0.0%	75.43	6.787	100.0%	0.084	2.4509
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	5	20.0%	59.6	0.638	100.0%	0.099	1.2912

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	13	0.0%	26.31	100.0%	0.167	0.4241
The Great River	3	6	20.0%	38.33	83.33%	-0.424	0.9735	-0.388
Ward the Shores	2	2	0.0%	29.0	100.0%	0.018	1.1796

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	12.0	100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	50.0	100.0%	0.04	2.0908
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	24.0	100.0%
Thriving Communities	1	29.0	100.0%	0.049	2.0331

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	38	12.0%	45.89	97.37%	-0.043	0.7545	0.004
B	23	33.33%	34.09	100.0%	0.247	0.9905	0.063
C	33	13.04%	49.21	96.97%	-0.045	0.5238	0.004
D	39	15.38%	45.74	97.44%	-0.012	0.7833	0.004
E	33	8.33%	49.58	96.97%	-0.114	0.5327	0.004
F	21	25.0%	31.62	95.24%	-0.233	0.4907	-0.388
G	28	17.65%	47.93	96.43%	-0.103	0.6282	-0.058
H	30	10.0%	49.73	100.0%	0.339	1.0509	0.392

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	15	0.0%	27.6	100.0%	0.185	2.3138
Skip Initial Invader Actions	16	0.0%	29.19	100.0%	0.185	0.0423
Start of Game Growth	16	0.0%	29.19	100.0%	0.185	-0.5759
Unlimited Undo	17	0.0%	28.35	100.0%	0.223	-0.3812
Using Tokens but Not Events	15	0.0%	27.6	100.0%	0.185	0.028

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	8	22.56	87.5%
II	22	30.98	100.0%
III	10	34.53	100.0%
IV	1	37.77	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	21
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.