Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 48.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 2 0.0% 43.5 2.513 100.0% 0.107 0.2169
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 100.0% 40.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 0.0% 31.5 -5.254 50.0% -0.298 0.0928
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 22 13.64% 53.23 77.27%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 8.7% 57.04 -0.139 78.26% -0.161 1.821
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 28 3.57% 64.0 1.229 82.14% -0.094 1.3275
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 0.0 3.386 0.0% 0.149 0.7837
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 18 0.0% 54.94 77.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 3.57% 56.71 89.29%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.549
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.062
Second Wave 0 79 7.59% 25.48 89.87%
The Great River 3 18 27.78% 12.0 27.78% -0.191 1.1727 -0.943
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.156
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.172
Back Against the Wall 4 34.75 75.0% -0.193
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0% 0.304
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0% 0.192
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 36.0 50.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.156

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 200 9.6% 45.38 80.0% 0.002 0.8653 0.214
B 72 15.94% 25.26 75.0% -0.136 0.6853 0.26
C 203 7.39% 45.48 81.28% -0.254 0.4443 0.248
D 185 4.92% 47.64 82.7% 0.193 1.0491 0.025
E 169 7.14% 43.25 78.11% -0.136 0.5527 -0.411
F 64 8.06% 28.78 79.69% 0.245 1.063 0.032
G 72 21.74% 34.51 81.94% -0.042 0.8382 -0.294
H 180 10.67% 47.09 79.44% 0.138 0.9186 -0.105

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5 0.0% 34.6 100.0% 0.107 -0.4599
Start of Game Growth 6 33.33% 28.83 83.33% 0.107 -0.5571 0.062
Unlimited Undo 5 0.0% 34.6 100.0% 0.107 0.1304
Using Tokens but Not Events 26 0.0% 25.88 92.31% 0.162 0.21 0.062

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 46 15.45 8.7%
II 100 30.45 96.0%
III 81 34.8 100.0%
IV 16 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 80
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 94
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 43
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)