Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 12.5% 52.13 -12.424 75.0% -0.595 1.418
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 100.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 13.33% 64.27 -16.551 93.33% -0.469 0.8696
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16 12.5% 58.5 -4.157 81.25% -0.448 1.5941
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 0.0% 70.67 13.452 90.48% 0.234 1.5782
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 14 0.0% 65.43 10.596 92.86% 0.345 1.6208
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 25.0 3.865 0.0% 0.049 0.0756
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 24 4.17% 60.83 10.227 95.83% 0.577 1.4642
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.515
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.042 -0.6021 0.057
Second Wave 0 55 5.45% 26.69 94.55% 0.059 0.1249
The Great River 3 3 0.0% 8.33 0.0%
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.071
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.176
Back Against the Wall 2 56.5 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 65.0 100.0% 0.084
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 63.0 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.071

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 136 6.72% 52.85 89.71% -0.15 0.5901 0.005
B 40 8.11% 28.85 87.5% 0.148 0.8739 0.03
C 144 6.25% 51.58 89.58% -0.168 0.4143 0.378
D 134 4.55% 54.07 92.54% -0.089 0.6223 -0.159
E 113 4.46% 51.49 90.27% 0.239 0.8046 0.165
F 43 0.0% 33.67 90.7% 0.306 0.9761 0.252
G 45 14.29% 38.82 86.67% -0.146 0.506 -0.364
H 125 7.32% 53.38 88.0% -0.118 0.4525 -0.279

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.057
Unlimited Undo 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 14 0.0% 28.21 100.0% 0.064 0.0533 0.057

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 18 20.4 16.67%
II 76 31.01 98.68%
III 57 34.76 100.0%
IV 14 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 74
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 14
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)