Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
115	7.14%	53.23	98.26%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	15	0.0%	37.27	100.0%	-0.444
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7	0.0%	27.57	100.0%	-0.57
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	12	8.33%	37.33	100.0%
Downpour Drenches the World	2	0.0%	50.0	100.0%	-0.57
Eyes Watch From the Trees	26	7.69%	59.42	100.0%	0.13
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	16	0.0%	34.13	100.0%
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	0.0%	21.0	100.0%
Fractured Days Split the Sky	10	0.0%	40.2	100.0%	0.077
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	5	0.0%	34.2	100.0%
Heart of the Wildfire	4	25.0%	27.5	100.0%
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	75	8.0%	66.04	100.0%	-0.045
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	33.33%	31.67	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	27.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	4	0.0%	26.0	75.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	68	7.35%	70.43	100.0%	0.505
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	8	12.5%	36.63	87.5%	0.023
Many Minds Move as One	19	0.0%	38.11	94.74%	0.04
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	76	6.85%	65.22	98.68%	-0.039
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	10	0.0%	33.2	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	79	7.89%	64.8	100.0%	-0.065
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	1	0.0%	27.0	100.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	10	0.0%	30.3	100.0%	0.036
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	0.0%	25.5	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	2	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	14	14.29%	33.29	100.0%	0.023
Shifting Memory of Ages	11	0.0%	26.18	90.91%	0.036
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	0.0%	27.5	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	7	14.29%	38.86	100.0%	0.047
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	9	22.22%	60.78	100.0%	0.109
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	20	0.0%	51.6	100.0%	0.075
Thunderspeaker	11	20.0%	30.18	100.0%	0.042
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	6	0.0%	26.33	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	10	0.0%	28.7	100.0%	0.034
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%
Volcano Looming High	13	7.69%	47.62	84.62%	0.036

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	6	16.67%	69.5	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1	0.0%	36.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	40.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	0.0%	63.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	69.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	13	7.69%	69.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	0.0%	63.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	10	20.0%	71.4	100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	15	0.0%	77.93	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	2	4	2	100.0%	18.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	6	0.0%	70.5	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	25.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	16	6.25%	63.69	100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	1	0.0%	81.0	100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%	-0.57
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	63.0	100.0%	0.034
Second Wave	0	41	4.88%	27.17	97.56%
The Great River	3	1	0.0%	25.0	0.0%
Ward the Shores	2	1	0.0%	34.0	100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
All Things Weaken	1	65.0	100.0%	0.01
Back Against the Wall	1	67.0	100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	65.0	100.0%	0.009
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	18.5	50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation	1	63.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	54.0	100.0%	0.008

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	95	7.53%	57.16	97.89%	0.005
B	31	10.71%	31.74	93.55%	-0.48
C	98	7.14%	56.82	97.96%	0.575
D	94	5.43%	58.33	100.0%	-0.045
E	78	5.19%	55.41	98.72%	0.282
F	35	0.0%	37.51	97.14%	-0.385
G	29	19.23%	44.66	96.55%	0.129
H	80	8.97%	60.84	98.75%	-0.056

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%
Start of Game Growth	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%	0.034
Unlimited Undo	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events	10	0.0%	27.1	100.0%	0.034

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.65	50.0%
II	55	31.08	100.0%
III	43	34.66	100.0%
IV	13	37.91	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	54
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	13
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.