Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.201 0.0% -0.241 0.1935
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 12.5% 52.13 -10.92 75.0% -0.437 1.5038
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 100.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 13.33% 64.27 -9.791 93.33% -0.222 1.0608
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.238 0.0% -0.237 0.5165
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14 14.29% 61.57 6.521 85.71% 0.229 2.2482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 20 0.0% 70.2 -1.348 90.0% -0.099 1.2572
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 0.0% 64.92 6.371 92.31% 0.422 1.6991
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 1 0.0% 25.0 4.091 0.0% 0.053 0.0425
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 4.76% 60.62 -0.373 95.24% 0.077 0.8822
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% 0.097 0.244 -0.515
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.056
Second Wave 0 50 6.0% 27.22 96.0%
The Great River 3 3 0.0% 8.33 0.0% -0.478 0.8704
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.071
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.177
Back Against the Wall 2 56.5 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 65.0 100.0% 0.082
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 63.0 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.071

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 126 7.26% 53.32 90.48% 0.482 1.3219 0.004
B 38 8.57% 28.97 86.84% 0.301 1.0793 0.028
C 132 6.82% 52.37 90.15% -0.127 0.527 0.373
D 123 4.96% 54.68 92.68% -0.066 0.7337 -0.162
E 105 4.81% 51.84 91.43% -0.198 0.4305 0.186
F 40 0.0% 34.98 92.5% 0.023 0.7422 0.239
G 40 16.22% 39.52 85.0% -0.029 0.7127 -0.385
H 114 8.04% 54.23 88.6% -0.365 0.2832 -0.263

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.097 -0.4375
Start of Game Growth 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.097 -0.2329 0.056
Unlimited Undo 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.097 0.0755
Using Tokens but Not Events 13 0.0% 28.15 100.0% 0.097 0.0435 0.056

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16 21.03 18.75%
II 70 31.04 98.57%
III 52 34.74 100.0%
IV 14 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 52
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 68
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 12
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)