Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2 0.0% 52.0 50.0% -0.356
Second Wave 0 104 8.65% 25.15 89.42%
The Great River 3 37 32.43% 15.27 35.14%
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 0.0 0.0%
All Things Weaken 2 64.0 100.0% 0.018
Back Against the Wall 5 31.6 80.0%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 33.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 67.5 100.0% 0.078
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Promising Farmlands 1 41.0 100.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 43.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 1 13.0 0.0% 0.032
Thriving Crops 2 18.0 50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 3 32.0 66.67% 0.033
Untended Land Crumbles 5 42.2 60.0% 0.025

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 261 14.29% 42.48 77.01% 0.268
B 108 22.86% 25.31 74.07% -0.212
C 269 12.64% 42.17 77.7% 0.295
D 242 8.75% 43.88 78.51% 0.206
E 207 8.74% 41.36 76.81% -0.147
F 103 19.8% 27.05 71.84% -0.169
G 88 18.82% 32.73 77.27% -0.176
H 231 13.97% 44.28 75.76% -0.049

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7 0.0% 29.57 85.71%
Start of Game Growth 9 16.67% 27.56 66.67% -0.356
Unlimited Undo 9 33.33% 30.67 77.78%
Using Tokens but Not Events 42 15.38% 26.81 88.1% -0.356

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 66 12.25 6.06%
II 117 29.91 95.73%
III 108 34.94 96.3%
IV 30 38.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 103
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 110
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 30
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 63
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 5
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)