Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
139	7.35%	52.28	96.4%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	19	0.0%	37.21	100.0%	0.23	0.051	-0.234
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7	0.0%	27.57	100.0%	0.024	0.0382	-0.509
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	14	7.14%	38.5	100.0%	0.309	0.064
Downpour Drenches the World	4	0.0%	40.25	100.0%			-0.509
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	3	0.0%	21.67	33.33%	-1.051	-0.8152	-0.851
Eyes Watch From the Trees	29	10.34%	59.07	100.0%	0.126	-0.3471	0.403
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	19	0.0%	33.47	100.0%	0.117	-0.3295
Finder of Paths Unseen	3	33.33%	34.0	100.0%	0.024	0.3874
Fractured Days Split the Sky	11	0.0%	39.18	100.0%	0.127	0.2308	0.155
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	7	0.0%	32.0	100.0%	0.009	-0.0555
Heart of the Wildfire	5	20.0%	26.4	100.0%	0.043	0.3022
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	94	7.45%	63.19	96.81%	-0.207	-0.7902	-0.075
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	33.33%	31.67	100.0%	0.038	0.3062	0.025
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	27.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	4	0.0%	26.0	75.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	84	7.14%	67.7	96.43%	-0.261	-0.7386	0.353
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	9	11.11%	35.33	88.89%	0.027	-0.0943	0.1
Many Minds Move as One	20	0.0%	39.9	95.0%	0.082	-0.5413	0.147
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	92	6.74%	63.64	95.65%	-0.127	-0.2547	-0.121
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	15	6.67%	35.27	100.0%	0.115	0.0319
River Surges in Sunlight	94	7.69%	63.29	96.81%	-0.222	-0.4142	-0.178
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	1	0.0%	27.0	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	1	0.0%	68.0	100.0%	0.112	-0.251	0.047
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	13	0.0%	29.77	100.0%	0.165	-0.0083	0.152
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	0.0%	25.5	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%	0.03	0.1049
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	2	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	14	14.29%	33.29	100.0%	0.067	-0.133	0.076
Shifting Memory of Ages	12	0.0%	26.42	91.67%	0.02	0.2491	0.037
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	0.0%	27.5	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	8	12.5%	36.75	100.0%	0.029	-0.1273	0.169
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	20.0%	57.2	100.0%			0.373
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	24	0.0%	50.67	95.83%	-0.091	-0.0284	-0.372
Thunderspeaker	13	25.0%	31.31	100.0%	0.093	0.0163	0.084
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	8	12.5%	28.25	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	11	0.0%	28.73	100.0%	0.06	0.8132	0.053
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%	0.031	0.6093
Volcano Looming High	21	9.52%	49.67	90.48%	0.357	0.3535	0.217

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	6	16.67%	69.5		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1	0.0%	36.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	40.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	0.0%	63.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	69.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	14	14.29%	68.86	1.53	100.0%	0.071	1.5373
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	0.0%	63.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	11	18.18%	71.55	6.446	100.0%	0.158	2.4685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	19	0.0%	69.58	-4.327	89.47%	-0.82	1.2994
The Kingdom of Scotland	2	4	3	100.0%	27.67		66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	11	0.0%	70.36	5.946	100.0%	0.395	2.0437
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	25.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	21	4.76%	60.62	0.907	95.24%	-0.035	1.0316
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	1	0.0%	81.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%			-0.509
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	63.0	100.0%			0.053
Second Wave	0	49	6.12%	27.78	97.96%	0.02	0.482
The Great River	3	1	0.0%	25.0	0.0%
Ward the Shores	2	1	0.0%	34.0	100.0%	0.029	0.7725

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	67.0	100.0%	0.071	1.801	0.023
All Things Weaken	1	65.0	100.0%			0.047
Back Against the Wall	2	56.5	100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	65.0	100.0%			0.031
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	18.5	50.0%
Unnatural Proliferation	1	63.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	54.0	100.0%			0.023

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	115	7.96%	56.17	95.65%	-0.103	0.6745	0.006
B	34	9.68%	31.47	94.12%	0.144	0.8471	-0.228
C	120	7.5%	55.46	95.83%	-0.065	0.463	0.468
D	113	5.41%	57.24	97.35%	-0.136	0.5984	-0.099
E	97	5.21%	54.62	96.91%	0.123	0.7071	0.425
F	38	0.0%	36.82	97.37%	0.278	0.9852	-0.069
G	34	19.35%	43.18	94.12%	-0.119	0.5232	-0.32
H	102	9.0%	58.38	96.08%	-0.073	0.5719	-0.151

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%	0.029	2.1041
Skip Initial Invader Actions	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%	0.029	-1.0306
Start of Game Growth	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%	0.029	-0.3937	0.053
Unlimited Undo	3	0.0%	30.33	100.0%	0.029	-0.3868
Using Tokens but Not Events	12	0.0%	27.92	100.0%	0.061	0.1765	0.053

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	7	22.63	28.57%
II	66	31.12	100.0%
III	52	34.7	100.0%
IV	14	37.97	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	52
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	65
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	3
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.