Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -0.364 0.0% -0.198 -0.1521
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 48.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 100.0% 40.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 0.0% 21.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 23 13.04% 53.96 78.26%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 8.33% 54.67 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 37 5.41% 56.95 -1.14 72.97% -0.386 0.9865
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 75.0% 32.25 2.868 75.0% 0.29 0.2621
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 0.0% 51.59 -0.523 72.73% -0.041 1.0075
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 36 5.56% 49.25 -7.866 77.78% -0.579 0.3219
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.485
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.129
Second Wave 0 88 7.95% 25.22 89.77%
The Great River 3 30 33.33% 15.0 40.0% -0.059 1.0408 -1.055
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.138
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 0.0 0.0% -0.136 -0.1942 -0.575
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.221
Back Against the Wall 4 34.75 75.0% -0.253
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 33.0 100.0%
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0% 0.32
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0% 0.187
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 43.0 100.0% 0.29 0.3639
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 3 32.0 66.67%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.138

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 237 11.91% 43.26 77.64% 0.005 1.0028 0.23
B 88 23.53% 25.91 77.27% 0.3 1.2222 0.632
C 246 10.16% 42.89 78.86% 0.005 0.7338 -0.131
D 218 6.48% 45.33 79.82% -0.559 0.3999 -0.17
E 185 7.07% 42.78 77.84% 0.7 1.5191 0.143
F 83 14.81% 26.12 74.7% -0.366 0.5157 -0.323
G 81 19.23% 33.05 77.78% -0.055 0.7706 -0.167
H 213 13.27% 45.02 77.0% -0.005 0.8337 -0.246

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7 0.0% 29.57 85.71% 0.139 -0.464
Start of Game Growth 8 20.0% 25.88 75.0% 0.139 -0.3653 0.129
Unlimited Undo 7 0.0% 34.29 100.0% 0.139 0.0317
Using Tokens but Not Events 38 14.29% 26.76 92.11% 0.347 0.3171 0.38

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 60 13.42 6.67%
II 112 30.13 96.43%
III 93 34.83 100.0%
IV 21 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 92
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 106
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 21
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 57
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)