Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 9 11.11% 53.78 77.78%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 36.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 100.0% 40.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 22 13.64% 53.23 2.286 77.27% -0.283 1.111
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 21 9.52% 58.95 11.378 80.95% 0.153 2.0946
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 26 3.85% 65.85 84.62%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 18 0.0% 54.94 77.78%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 45.0 2.151 100.0% 0.259 0.6762
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 3.57% 56.71 -6.577 89.29% -0.43 0.5602
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.569
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.052
Second Wave 0 72 8.33% 25.68 90.28% 0.064 0.1497
The Great River 3 12 41.67% 13.75 33.33% -0.342 1.0194 -0.749
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.152
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.175
Back Against the Wall 4 34.75 75.0% 0.064 0.0938 -0.34
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0% 0.244
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0% 0.116 -0.4658 0.146
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0% -0.415 -0.5164
Unnatural Proliferation 2 36.0 50.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.152

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 187 10.27% 47.02 82.35% -0.252 0.8904 0.005
B 62 18.64% 27.58 80.65% -0.267 0.7877 0.412
C 190 7.89% 47.21 83.68% 0.179 1.0676 0.185
D 175 5.2% 49.15 85.14% 0.109 1.163 -0.018
E 154 7.84% 45.44 81.17% -0.255 0.649 -0.263
F 56 9.26% 30.48 83.93% 0.238 1.2418 0.037
G 65 24.19% 36.58 86.15% 0.311 1.2793 -0.206
H 166 11.59% 49.37 82.53% -0.046 0.9471 -0.127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 5 50.0% 24.4 80.0% -0.415 -0.827 0.052
Unlimited Undo 4 0.0% 30.5 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 22 0.0% 25.68 90.91% 0.357 0.4328 0.052

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36 16.77 11.11%
II 94 30.59 95.74%
III 78 34.74 100.0%
IV 16 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 77
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 89
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 33
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)