Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.559 0.0% -0.227 -0.2455
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 48.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 100.0% 40.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 0.0% 21.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 23 13.04% 53.96 78.26%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 8.33% 54.67 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 34 5.88% 61.97 -3.723 79.41% -0.279 1.1561
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 21 0.0% 54.05 -3.335 76.19% -0.108 0.9386
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 33 6.06% 53.73 -7.764 84.85% -0.128 0.9239
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 7.156 100.0% 0.106 1.714

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.486
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.104
Second Wave 0 86 6.98% 25.23 89.53%
The Great River 3 28 35.71% 14.86 39.29% -0.227 0.8393 -1.174
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.142
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 0.0 0.0% -0.251 -0.3218 -0.633
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.19
Back Against the Wall 4 34.75 75.0% -0.227
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 33.0 100.0%
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0% 0.291
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0% 0.187
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 36.0 50.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.142

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 226 11.16% 44.54 79.2% 0.005 0.9798 0.293
B 82 20.25% 25.63 76.83% 0.191 1.0799 0.473
C 234 8.97% 44.18 80.34% 0.005 0.6969 -0.165
D 207 4.88% 46.83 81.64% -0.277 0.6185 -0.036
E 182 6.63% 43.21 78.02% 0.454 1.1836 -0.032
F 78 14.47% 27.49 78.21% -0.275 0.5567 -0.232
G 79 19.74% 33.46 78.48% -0.217
H 204 12.38% 46.21 78.43% -0.08 0.7032 -0.12

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6 0.0% 28.83 83.33%
Start of Game Growth 7 25.0% 24.71 71.43% 0.104
Unlimited Undo 6 0.0% 34.33 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 36 15.15% 26.61 91.67% 0.084 0.0413 0.347

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 54 13.76 7.41%
II 112 30.19 96.43%
III 91 34.82 100.0%
IV 17 38.63 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 90
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 106
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 51
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)