Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.78 0.0% -0.338 -0.4272
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 48.4 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 100.0% 40.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 0.0% 21.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 23 13.04% 53.96 7.294 78.26% 0.141 1.3704
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 8.33% 54.67 -22.174 75.0% -0.577 1.2763
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 30 3.33% 64.97 11.872 83.33% 0.271 1.7415
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 27.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 19 0.0% 55.89 78.95%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 32 3.13% 55.41 2.276 87.5% 0.221 1.2532
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 81.0 6.489 100.0% 0.073 1.8524

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 29.33 100.0% -0.593
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 63.0 100.0% 0.057
Second Wave 0 84 7.14% 25.24 89.29%
The Great River 3 28 35.71% 14.86 39.29% -0.255 0.9899 -1.108
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 67.0 100.0% 0.144
All Things Weaken 1 65.0 100.0% 0.178
Back Against the Wall 4 34.75 75.0% -0.217
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 35.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 33.0 100.0%
Erosion of Will 4 49.25 100.0% 0.316
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 44.5 100.0% 0.182
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 18.5 50.0%
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 36.0 50.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 54.0 100.0% 0.144

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 219 11.06% 44.68 79.45% -0.078 0.8401 0.312
B 82 20.25% 25.63 76.83% 0.217 1.0579 0.404
C 227 8.81% 44.3 80.62% -0.137 0.5463 -0.015
D 200 4.55% 47.06 82.0% -0.056 0.7863 0.059
E 180 6.7% 43.11 77.78% -0.261 0.3907 -0.338
F 75 13.7% 28.25 80.0% 0.285 1.0451 0.02
G 79 19.74% 33.46 78.48% 0.18 0.9374 -0.371
H 199 12.18% 46.21 78.89% -0.126 0.5922 -0.109

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 30.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6 0.0% 28.83 83.33%
Start of Game Growth 7 25.0% 24.71 71.43% 0.057
Unlimited Undo 6 0.0% 34.33 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 36 15.15% 26.61 91.67% 0.355 0.193 0.255

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 52 14.25 7.69%
II 109 30.3 96.33%
III 89 34.84 100.0%
IV 17 38.61 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 88
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 49
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)