Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Coastline (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
99	8.25%	53.06	97.98%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	12	0.0%	31.58	100.0%	-0.277	-0.3246	-0.473
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	4	0.0%	27.0	100.0%	-0.264	-0.2004	-0.551
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	10	10.0%	35.8	100.0%	0.365	0.1268
Downpour Drenches the World	2	0.0%	50.0	100.0%	-0.452	-0.0603	-0.551
Eyes Watch From the Trees	24	8.33%	60.29	100.0%	0.127	-0.2884	0.141
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	15	0.0%	32.2	100.0%	0.126	-0.4689
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	0.0%	21.0	100.0%
Fractured Days Split the Sky	9	0.0%	37.44	100.0%	0.065	0.1076	0.086
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	5	0.0%	34.2	100.0%
Heart of the Wildfire	4	25.0%	27.5	100.0%	0.202	0.531
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	63	9.52%	66.59	100.0%	-0.1	-0.7345	-0.049
Lightning's Swift Strike	1	100.0%	40.0	100.0%	0.025	0.2977
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	4	0.0%	26.0	75.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	58	8.62%	70.45	100.0%	0.352	-0.0728	0.478
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	7	14.29%	37.57	85.71%	-0.195	-0.4023	0.026
Many Minds Move as One	17	0.0%	39.65	94.12%	0.137	-0.3749	0.046
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	65	7.94%	64.92	98.46%	-0.314	-0.5969	-0.043
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	9	0.0%	33.89	100.0%	0.09	0.1223
River Surges in Sunlight	66	9.38%	65.56	100.0%	-0.017	-0.0111	-0.072
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	10	0.0%	30.3	100.0%	0.115	-0.0283	0.039
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	0.0%	25.5	100.0%	0.014	0.5159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%	-0.473	-0.55
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	0.0%	26.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	13	15.38%	34.31	100.0%	0.15	-0.1115	0.026
Shifting Memory of Ages	10	0.0%	26.8	90.0%	0.111	0.1334	0.039
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	0.0%	27.5	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	7	14.29%	38.86	100.0%	0.047	-0.1649	0.051
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	8	25.0%	65.0	100.0%	0.151	-0.0184	0.121
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	17	0.0%	49.41	100.0%	0.15	0.2608	0.067
Thunderspeaker	11	20.0%	30.18	100.0%	0.14	0.045	0.049
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	5	0.0%	27.6	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	7	0.0%	28.29	100.0%	0.033	0.9151	0.038
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	100.0%	7.0	0.0%	-0.446	-0.0457
Volcano Looming High	10	10.0%	45.9	80.0%	-0.223	-0.238	0.032

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	6	16.67%	69.5	0.551	100.0%	0.033	2.2077
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1	0.0%	36.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	40.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	0.0%	63.0	4.455	100.0%	0.071	0.5627
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	69.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	12	8.33%	69.08	1.14	100.0%	0.08	1.5753
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	0.0%	63.0	4.455	100.0%	0.071	0.8202
The Kingdom of England	6	11	9	22.22%	70.78	3.566	100.0%	0.105	2.6426
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	14	0.0%	77.71	5.482	100.0%	0.06	2.2153
The Kingdom of Scotland	2	4	2	100.0%	18.5	-2.175	50.0%	-0.389	0.6161
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	2	0.0%	68.5	1.007	100.0%	-0.407	1.0679
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	1	0.0%	25.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	13	7.69%	63.69	1.181	100.0%	0.075	1.2411
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	1	0.0%	81.0		100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%	-0.452	-0.1959	-0.551
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	63.0	100.0%	0.071	0.2651	0.038
Second Wave	0	36	5.56%	27.28	97.22%	-0.342	0.2302
The Great River	3	1	0.0%	25.0	0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
All Things Weaken	1	65.0	100.0%			0.011
Back Against the Wall	1	67.0	100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	65.0	100.0%			0.01
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	18.5	50.0%	-0.389	1.5895
Unnatural Proliferation	1	63.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	54.0	100.0%	0.02	2.0463	0.009

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	84	8.54%	56.48	97.62%	-0.091	0.6688	0.005
B	26	12.5%	32.42	92.31%	-0.393	0.2834	-0.451
C	84	8.33%	56.67	97.62%	0.224	0.7495	0.556
D	80	6.33%	58.3	100.0%	0.214	0.9406	-0.049
E	67	6.06%	54.93	98.51%	0.433	0.9931	0.287
F	29	0.0%	36.48	96.55%	-0.164	0.5255	-0.404
G	27	20.0%	45.7	96.3%	-0.054	0.6411	0.145
H	67	10.61%	60.94	98.51%	-0.153	0.5081	-0.063

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%	0.026	-0.3429
Start of Game Growth	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%	0.026	-0.5965	0.038
Unlimited Undo	2	0.0%	28.5	100.0%	0.026	-0.6046
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	0.0%	26.25	100.0%	0.126	0.1693	0.038

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.62	50.0%
II	46	31.05	100.0%
III	38	34.62	100.0%
IV	11	37.86	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	38
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	46
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	11
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.