Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 3.762 100.0% 0.019 0.297
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.5 8.745 100.0% 0.185 0.5786
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 3.709 100.0% 0.096 0.9745
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 35.8 -1.394 80.0% -0.189 -0.1486
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 16.67% 40.83 1.94 100.0% 0.508 0.4795
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 25.0% 44.25 4.644 100.0% 0.153 0.1574
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 5.403 100.0% 0.076 0.3648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 66.0 10.917 100.0% 0.17 0.5377
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 7.175 100.0% 0.163 0.9924
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 100.0% 46.5 1.134 50.0% -1.071 0.1703
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 -3.525 92.31% -0.164 0.1684
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 -3.236 40.0% -1.113 -0.6086
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 9.272 100.0% 0.261 1.2294
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 7.795 100.0% 0.025 1.6032
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -7.508 0.0% -0.67 0.828
The Kingdom of England 6 11 26 7.69% 40.58 2.311 26.92% -1.526 0.7284
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 -4.032 66.67% -0.041 0.4741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 -6.441 0.0% -0.921 1.2163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 3.407 66.67% -0.437 1.7481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 0.0% 68.43 6.177 100.0% 0.148 2.2951
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 14.29% 73.43 9.876 100.0% 0.2 2.0197
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 18.42% 76.39 11.651 94.74% -0.456 1.6505
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -6.024 66.67% -0.304 -0.2189
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 42.86% 23.86 -3.798 28.57% -1.193 -1.1719
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 5.895 100.0% 0.113 0.3447
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -5.029 0.0% -0.497 -0.2113
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 50.0 3.078 100.0% 0.014 0.7915
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 2.809 100.0% 0.014 1.171
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 15 0.0% 64.33 7.989 100.0% 0.554 1.6859
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -1.694 100.0% 0.426 0.3198
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 54.0 7.954 100.0% 0.089 0.8319
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 3.933 50.0% -0.223 0.2086
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 10.625 100.0% 0.264 1.5131
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 5.367 87.5% -0.501 0.6259
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 8.387 100.0% 0.021 2.04

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 26.0 -4.714 0.0% -0.441 -0.0416
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -9.709 100.0% 0.029 0.4686
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 -0.159 33.33% -0.829 -0.463
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 -4.98 50.0% -0.525 -0.0834
Second Wave 0 21 14.29% 32.95 -2.375 90.48% -0.415 0.013
The Great River 3 111 31.53% 34.79 -1.65 79.28% -1.303 0.1561
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 2.632 100.0% 0.247 1.2836

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 9 47.11 0.546 88.89% 0.031 2.1047
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.117 100.0% 0.29 2.2095
All Things Weaken 4 20.25 -6.112 50.0% -0.556 1.6029
Back Against the Wall 6 33.33 -2.247 83.33% -0.305 1.7889
Downward Spiral 7 31.0 -3.279 71.43% -0.593 1.428
Erosion of Will 6 21.67 -5.149 50.0% -1.064 1.1449
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 33.5 -0.387 25.0% -0.517 0.1754
Memory Fades to Dust 8 31.88 -6.945 62.5% -0.831 1.3869
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 50.5 1.38 100.0% 0.304 2.3252
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -5.809 0.0% -0.44 1.7742
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 51.5 0.765 100.0% 0.184 0.5953
Thriving Communities 2 25.5 -8.043 50.0% -0.639 1.4541
Unnatural Proliferation 5 35.4 -0.261 80.0% -0.179 1.9106
Untended Land Crumbles 7 33.86 -3.569 57.14% -0.942 1.164

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 239 21.61% 45.18 2.823 84.52% 0.432 -0.6799
B 177 22.41% 32.48 -5.083 77.97% -0.024 -1.2324
C 237 20.51% 44.76 0.833 83.97% -0.224 -1.6628
D 228 20.0% 43.49 0.625 83.77% 0.185 -1.0171
E 95 28.42% 38.87 -1.209 85.26% 0.32 -0.9927
F 94 30.85% 37.45 -0.871 81.91% -0.125 -1.3909
G 81 33.33% 37.41 -0.564 81.48% -0.365 -1.6217
H 125 20.8% 54.4 4.108 88.0% -0.157 -1.4227

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -5.983 100.0% 0.137 2.1917
Not Using Events or Tokens 35 6.06% 31.09 -3.034 45.71% -0.588 -0.3702
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 19.05% 43.0 2.762 81.82% -0.39 -1.0837
Start of Game Growth 61 13.33% 39.9 1.159 91.8% 0.719 0.2564
Unlimited Undo 21 25.0% 37.19 -1.24 76.19% -0.318 -0.7382
Using Tokens but Not Events 24 26.09% 35.17 -0.859 87.5% 0.198 0.1462

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35 22.34 17.14%
II 140 30.81 86.43%
III 94 34.31 95.74%
IV 50 37.5 98.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 110
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 46
Lose: Adversary condition 4
Lose: Scenario condition 38
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)