Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 0.0% 49.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 36.8 -1.276 80.0% -0.26 -0.4133
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 15 15.38% 29.4 -1.09 93.33% 0.127 0.4876
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 30.5 -6.219 50.0% -0.296 1.1976
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 -1.902 35.48% -0.388 1.9227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 9.16 66.67% 0.1 2.232
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 14.264 94.44% 0.095 2.2146
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 2.026 66.67% 0.05 1.0476
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 78.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 44.44% 26.11 2.602 44.44% 0.144 0.1814
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 75.0% 30.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 64.24 14.264 100.0% 0.095 1.1617
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 83.0 10.414 100.0% 0.081 2.0595

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 0.0% 30.75 100.0% 0.063
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% 0.195 0.2153 0.151
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.212
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 109 9.17% 28.53 95.41% 0.713 1.1747
The Great River 3 180 35.56% 33.66 73.33% -0.766 1.0004 0.288
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.127 0.9548
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.093

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.122
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.335
All Things Weaken 8 27.0 62.5% -0.388 1.4897 -0.175
Back Against the Wall 9 31.11 77.78% 0.15 1.7866 0.182
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0%
Downward Spiral 12 25.67 66.67% -0.228 1.4706 -0.551
Erosion of Will 8 25.38 62.5% 0.095 1.995 0.151
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.044
Memory Fades to Dust 13 27.31 53.85% -0.511
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.016
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.385
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.046
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.251
Unnatural Proliferation 10 30.2 60.0% -0.383
Untended Land Crumbles 13 26.31 53.85% -0.26 1.5539

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 381 21.39% 43.15 84.51% 0.01 0.7873 -0.25
B 294 23.61% 30.48 78.91% -0.143 0.5599 0.019
C 387 20.26% 42.59 84.5% 0.109 0.6362 0.259
D 353 21.55% 41.44 84.7% 0.094 0.8285 0.15
E 196 26.8% 35.78 84.18% 0.008 0.5923 -0.525
F 181 25.14% 34.49 81.22% -0.235 0.4723 -0.251
G 151 37.09% 34.45 78.81% 0.118 0.7605 -0.201
H 202 22.28% 50.91 86.14% 0.057 0.702 0.83

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.43 100.0% -0.346 1.729
Not Using Events or Tokens 42 10.0% 29.19 50.0% 0.147 0.3186 -0.746
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1% -0.346 -1.4056
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% -0.346 -0.7687 0.24
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% -0.246 -0.6618 0.055
Using Tokens but Not Events 55 18.0% 30.31 90.91% -0.204 -0.0882 0.111

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 49 22.63 18.37%
II 214 31.12 83.18%
III 195 34.7 92.82%
IV 99 37.97 98.99%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 179
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 171
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 97
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 55
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)