Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 8 16.67% 24.63 75.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 57.0 71.43% 0.276
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0%
Second Wave 0 228 9.65% 26.91 92.54%
The Great River 3 312 38.46% 26.94 56.41% -0.248 0.9264
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 16.4 40.0% -0.224
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 33.36 57.14%
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0%
Attenuated Essence 4 31.75 75.0%
Back Against the Wall 16 29.31 62.5% -0.281
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 25.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0%
Downward Spiral 19 28.32 63.16%
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0%
Intensifying Exploitation 8 29.25 50.0% -0.248
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 36.23 53.85%
Memory Fades to Dust 17 24.06 47.06% 0.033
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 32.53 53.33% 0.157
Promising Farmlands 8 18.88 12.5%
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 34.8 60.0% -0.115 -0.1158
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 9.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 44.44 88.89% 0.165
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0%
Thriving Communities 12 31.92 50.0%
Thriving Crops 1 46.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 20 32.5 75.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 23 26.0 39.13% -0.406

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 608 24.96% 35.39 72.04% 0.113 1.1045 0.285
B 509 27.86% 26.01 66.6% -0.248 0.6168 -0.287
C 619 23.81% 35.1 71.57% 0.13 0.8823 -0.191
D 551 23.2% 34.55 73.32% 0.13 1.0751 -0.067
E 359 27.45% 31.18 74.65% 0.113 0.8677 0.097
F 336 31.23% 29.91 69.05% -0.165
G 235 37.61% 31.09 72.34% 0.296
H 307 25.73% 41.93 73.62% -0.248 0.5589 0.044

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 11 0.0% 16.82 63.64%
Not Using Events or Tokens 67 9.68% 21.82 41.79%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 40 14.29% 43.1 80.0%
Start of Game Growth 85 12.5% 41.59 88.24%
Unlimited Undo 53 16.67% 25.17 52.83%
Using Tokens but Not Events 129 13.82% 25.4 82.17% 0.028

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 166 12.25 5.42%
II 300 29.91 77.33%
III 302 34.94 91.39%
IV 160 38.9 98.75%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 274
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 155
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 111
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 72
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 59
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)