Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 2.378 50.0% 0.092 1.2003
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 10.044 100.0% 0.061 2.2893
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 10 0.0% 50.5 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8 12.5% 39.0 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 6 33.33% 39.5 -0.602 83.33% 0.137 0.3436
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 40.0% 59.7 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 2.254 100.0% 0.085 1.7764
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 14.247 35.48% 0.112 2.4748
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 12.5% 66.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 27.235 94.44% 0.049 2.3598
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 40.0 0.845 100.0% 0.041 0.9203
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 50.0% 24.13 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3 66.67% 35.33 0.833 66.67% -0.309 0.106
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 64.24 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 -4.835 50.0% -0.431 0.3691
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 83.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 3 0.0% 32.0 100.0% 0.334 0.6735 0.106
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 37.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% -0.431 -0.2065 0.122
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 88 10.23% 28.68 95.45% 0.34 0.9249
The Great River 3 168 34.52% 33.6 74.4% -0.739 0.7758 0.078
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.084

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.114
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% -0.29 1.351 0.3
All Things Weaken 8 27.0 62.5% -0.166 1.8029 0.182
Back Against the Wall 9 31.11 77.78% 0.134 1.9539 0.091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0%
Downward Spiral 9 27.11 66.67% 0.035 1.9543 -0.593
Erosion of Will 7 23.14 57.14%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.316 0.8068 0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 12 27.5 58.33% -0.526
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.117 2.007 0.017
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.438
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.092 0.5056 0.045
Thriving Communities 7 37.0 57.14% 0.228
Unnatural Proliferation 7 32.86 71.43%
Untended Land Crumbles 11 29.09 63.64% 0.11 2.0882

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 357 21.59% 43.8 84.31% -0.479 0.2779 -0.474
B 267 23.19% 30.84 78.65% -0.564 0.1206 -0.191
C 360 20.28% 43.39 84.72% -0.169 0.3807 0.185
D 334 20.61% 42.15 84.73% 0.05 0.7982 0.272
E 174 26.59% 36.57 85.06% 0.709 1.3098 -0.361
F 160 26.42% 34.99 81.25% -0.157 0.527 -0.114
G 133 37.59% 35.5 78.2% 0.361 1.075 -0.227
H 188 20.74% 52.86 87.23% 0.267 0.9182 0.932

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 25.4 100.0% 0.104 2.1338
Not Using Events or Tokens 41 10.26% 29.44 48.78% -0.716
Skip Initial Invader Actions 29 15.38% 41.17 86.21% 0.104 -0.0045
Start of Game Growth 69 12.12% 39.51 92.75% 0.104 -0.6024
Unlimited Undo 27 20.83% 35.48 81.48% 0.104 -0.5864
Using Tokens but Not Events 45 21.43% 31.04 88.89% -0.103 -0.2293

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 44 22.59 15.91%
II 206 31.01 83.5%
III 171 34.57 93.57%
IV 89 37.81 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 158
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 166
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 87
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 54
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-12 03:01:08 (Pacific Time)