Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 47.0 7.805 100.0% 0.126 0.4986
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 5.203 100.0% 0.146 0.9931
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 43.0 1.99 100.0% 0.108 0.1551
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 20.0% 41.0 2.375 100.0% 0.517 0.489
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.0 5.053 100.0% 0.168 0.165
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 50.0% 43.5 5.954 100.0% 0.053 0.3375
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 2 50.0% 66.0 10.882 100.0% 0.204 0.5819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 8.837 100.0% 0.126 0.9599
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 100.0% 39.33 0.115 33.33% -1.154 0.0953
The Kingdom of England 0 1 12 0.0% 30.33 -2.703 100.0% 0.553 0.8856
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 33.33% 34.33 -0.907 66.67% -0.511 -0.0282
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 9.113 100.0% 0.272 1.2293
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 8.858 100.0% 0.037 1.6141
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -8.376 0.0% -0.621 0.9011
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 4.35% 36.0 1.374 17.39% -1.555 0.7008
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 20.0 -2.95 0.0% -0.65 1.4787
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 4.126 66.67% -0.39 1.796
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 0.0% 68.43 8.773 100.0% 0.258 2.4036
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 20.0% 73.0 11.578 100.0% 0.209 2.0274
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 15 26.67% 75.67 13.674 93.33% -0.274 1.8609
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -5.776 66.67% -0.183 -0.0979
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 25.0 -3.827 33.33% -1.011 -1.0015
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 5.419 100.0% 0.135 0.3525
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -6.379 0.0% -0.404 -0.1192
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 50.0 5.746 100.0% 0.042 0.8197
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 0.0% 64.11 9.228 100.0% 0.489 1.6213
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -3.068 100.0% 0.321 0.2042
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 2.814 50.0% -0.422 0.0142
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 9.713 100.0% 0.145 1.4198
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 40.0% 49.4 5.134 80.0% -0.528 0.6294

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 0.684 33.33% -0.581 -0.2055
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 100.0% 22.33 -4.266 66.67% -0.264 0.1829
Second Wave 0 13 23.08% 33.85 -2.992 84.62% -0.738 -0.3196
The Great River 3 61 42.62% 34.75 -1.06 77.05% -1.203 0.2822
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 3.35 100.0% 0.252 1.2827

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7 40.0 -1.02 85.71% -0.031 2.0375
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.053 100.0% 0.265 2.1814
All Things Weaken 3 22.33 -4.668 66.67% -0.265 1.8952
Back Against the Wall 4 34.25 -1.287 75.0% -0.232 1.8598
Downward Spiral 5 31.8 -1.527 80.0% -0.028 1.9859
Erosion of Will 4 21.0 -4.28 50.0% -0.871 1.3404
Memory Fades to Dust 7 33.43 -5.282 57.14% -0.777 1.4392
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 57.67 3.599 100.0% 0.239 2.2593
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -5.006 0.0% -0.37 1.8448
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 54.5 3.017 100.0% 0.133 0.5501
Thriving Communities 1 9.0 -15.939 0.0% -0.653 1.4539
Unnatural Proliferation 5 35.4 -0.641 80.0% -0.329 1.7509
Untended Land Crumbles 6 37.17 -2.463 66.67% -0.801 1.2947

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 155 25.0% 41.36 2.23 80.0% 0.304 -0.7692
B 134 24.43% 32.3 -5.259 75.37% -0.098 -1.2624
C 158 23.23% 40.8 0.68 79.11% -0.54 -1.937
D 152 21.48% 40.12 0.152 80.26% 0.3 -0.8582
E 45 40.0% 40.8 -0.021 86.67% 0.52 -0.7369
F 59 35.59% 37.41 -0.83 84.75% 0.252 -0.9738
G 56 37.5% 40.02 -0.616 83.93% -0.545 -1.7572
H 77 23.38% 51.34 3.954 88.31% -0.149 -1.3708

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -5.609 100.0% 0.144 2.1831
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 6.25% 31.35 -1.964 44.12% -0.641 -0.4207
Skip Initial Invader Actions 15 14.29% 45.87 3.196 86.67% -0.282 -0.9878
Start of Game Growth 29 17.86% 42.52 2.143 93.1% 0.565 0.1054
Unlimited Undo 13 16.67% 41.46 0.037 84.62% -0.26 -0.6628
Using Tokens but Not Events 20 26.32% 35.45 -1.088 85.0% 0.061 0.0146

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 30 22.34 20.0%
II 91 30.71 83.52%
III 63 34.23 98.41%
IV 25 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 53
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 65
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 29
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)