Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 8 16.67% 24.63 75.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 57.0 71.43% 0.284
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0%
Second Wave 0 221 9.05% 27.05 93.21% 0.123 0.1189
The Great River 3 303 37.62% 27.35 57.43% -0.367 0.7628
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 16.4 40.0% -0.241
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14 33.36 57.14%
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0%
Attenuated Essence 2 30.5 50.0%
Back Against the Wall 16 29.31 62.5% -0.232
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 25.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0%
Downward Spiral 19 28.32 63.16%
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0%
Intensifying Exploitation 8 29.25 50.0% -0.225
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 36.23 53.85%
Memory Fades to Dust 16 25.19 50.0% 0.035
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 32.53 53.33% 0.045 0.2427 -0.159
Promising Farmlands 8 18.88 12.5%
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 37.75 75.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 9.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 44.44 88.89% 0.065 -0.5591 0.166
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0%
Thriving Communities 11 33.09 54.55%
Thriving Crops 1 46.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 20 32.5 75.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 20 28.4 45.0% -0.43

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 597 24.4% 35.73 72.7% -0.116 0.6836 0.279
B 498 27.05% 26.24 67.27% 0.206 0.9366 -0.324
C 610 23.5% 35.36 72.13% 0.303 0.9074 -0.001
D 545 22.91% 34.63 73.39% 0.11 0.8671 0.045
E 354 27.84% 31.34 74.86% -0.042 0.542 -0.041
F 329 30.67% 30.23 69.91% -0.249 0.4538 -0.243
G 230 37.12% 31.23 72.17% -0.367 0.3906 0.041
H 303 25.74% 42.23 73.93% 0.162 0.7936 0.259

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 11 0.0% 16.82 63.64%
Not Using Events or Tokens 67 9.68% 21.82 41.79%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 40 14.29% 43.1 80.0%
Start of Game Growth 85 12.5% 41.59 88.24%
Unlimited Undo 52 17.02% 25.65 53.85% -0.367 -0.3031 0.14
Using Tokens but Not Events 127 13.22% 25.58 82.68% 0.066 -0.0615 -0.267

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 162 12.44 5.56%
II 294 29.94 78.23%
III 297 34.9 91.58%
IV 158 38.84 98.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 270
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 222
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 153
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 108
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 71
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 55

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)