Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 3.82 100.0% 0.021 0.3048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.5 7.731 100.0% 0.164 0.5743
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 3.838 100.0% 0.102 0.9791
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 68.0 7.162 100.0% 0.032 2.0751
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 35.8 -1.301 80.0% -0.222 -0.18
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 14.29% 37.86 0.741 85.71% 0.159 0.14
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 25.0% 44.25 4.278 100.0% 0.147 0.1601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 5.597 100.0% 0.077 0.3653
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 66.0 11.032 100.0% 0.158 0.5251
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 7.199 100.0% 0.109 0.9353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 100.0% 46.5 1.213 50.0% -1.112 0.1258
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 -3.518 92.31% -0.202 0.1298
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 -3.177 40.0% -1.056 -0.5427
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 3.75 66.67% -0.05 0.9174
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 7.672 100.0% 0.019 1.5981
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -7.446 0.0% -0.669 0.8291
The Kingdom of England 6 11 27 7.41% 41.81 2.827 29.63% -1.491 0.7572
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 -3.935 66.67% -0.011 0.5025
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 -6.412 0.0% -0.976 1.1673
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 3.701 66.67% -0.373 1.8233
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 12.5% 66.75 7.097 100.0% 0.165 2.3231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 14.29% 73.43 10.036 100.0% 0.18 1.9975
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 40 17.5% 76.38 11.755 95.0% -0.567 1.5297
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -5.82 66.67% -0.248 -0.1627
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 42.86% 23.86 -3.623 28.57% -1.171 -1.1372
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 5.193 100.0% 0.087 0.3223
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -5.017 0.0% -0.449 -0.1617
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 3.717 100.0% 0.042 0.8258
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 2.743 100.0% 0.014 1.1802
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 0.0% 64.25 8.281 100.0% 0.609 1.7334
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -1.646 100.0% 0.477 0.3757
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 54.0 7.935 100.0% 0.061 0.8403
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 3.691 50.0% -0.292 0.1272
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 10.829 100.0% 0.269 1.5228
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 5.304 87.5% -0.467 0.6501
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 8.498 100.0% 0.017 2.0156

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 26.0 -5.119 0.0% -0.525 -0.1267
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -10.844 100.0% 0.011 0.4754
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 -0.167 33.33% -0.898 -0.532
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 -5.081 50.0% -0.563 -0.118
Second Wave 0 21 14.29% 32.95 -2.269 90.48% -0.469 -0.0405
The Great River 3 123 30.89% 33.98 -2.168 76.42% -1.495 -0.0317
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 2.759 100.0% 0.239 1.2729

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 9 47.11 0.66 88.89% 0.047 2.12
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.311 100.0% 0.311 2.2294
All Things Weaken 4 20.25 -5.79 50.0% -0.579 1.5915
Back Against the Wall 7 31.0 -2.757 71.43% -0.437 1.6542
Downward Spiral 7 31.0 -3.234 71.43% -0.634 1.3887
Erosion of Will 7 23.14 -4.53 57.14% -0.74 1.4686
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 40.4 0.689 40.0% -0.417 0.2695
Memory Fades to Dust 8 31.88 -6.923 62.5% -0.819 1.3992
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 50.5 1.317 100.0% 0.298 2.3216
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -5.983 0.0% -0.428 1.7861
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 51.5 0.676 100.0% 0.138 0.548
Thriving Communities 4 28.75 -4.869 50.0% -0.849 1.2455
Unnatural Proliferation 5 35.4 -0.123 80.0% -0.137 1.9497
Untended Land Crumbles 7 33.86 -3.598 57.14% -1.065 1.0404

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 250 21.46% 45.28 3.028 84.8% 0.486 -0.2744
B 189 22.58% 32.06 -5.166 76.72% -0.191 -1.0483
C 253 20.0% 44.61 0.845 83.79% -0.306 -1.3949
D 242 20.08% 43.31 0.793 84.3% 0.48 -0.3701
E 103 28.16% 39.53 -0.815 85.44% 0.492 -0.4734
F 104 28.85% 36.81 -0.95 78.85% -0.149 -1.063
G 86 34.88% 36.53 -0.799 79.07% -0.418 -1.3233
H 137 21.9% 52.97 3.672 85.4% -0.353 -1.2671

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -5.956 100.0% 0.125 2.1809
Not Using Events or Tokens 37 5.71% 30.65 -3.081 48.65% -0.498 -0.2819
Skip Initial Invader Actions 23 18.18% 42.96 2.979 82.61% -0.447 -1.1335
Start of Game Growth 63 12.9% 40.0 1.325 92.06% 0.863 0.3932
Unlimited Undo 23 22.73% 36.83 -1.075 78.26% -0.284 -0.7035
Using Tokens but Not Events 25 25.0% 35.44 -0.303 88.0% 0.322 0.2693

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36 22.35 16.67%
II 150 30.84 85.33%
III 100 34.35 94.0%
IV 55 37.52 98.18%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 85
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 117
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 51
Lose: Adversary condition 4
Lose: Scenario condition 42
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)