Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 0.0% 49.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 36.8 -2.093 80.0% -0.178 -0.2699
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 21.43% 31.06 4.479 93.75% 0.557 0.7328
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 30.5 -3.628 50.0% -0.2 0.9615
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 1.464 35.48% -0.205 1.8137
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 11.625 66.67% 0.235 1.6227
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 94.44%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.175 0.0% -0.098 -0.1845
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 78.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 25.0% 16.0 -3.829 50.0% -0.145 0.0047
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 40.0% 23.5 -2.603 40.0% -0.085 -0.0955
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 75.0% 30.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 0.0% 61.32 1.412 95.45% 0.01 0.8148
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 60.0% 24.6 -3.829 60.0% -0.145 -0.1032
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 83.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 0.0% 24.6 80.0% -0.225 -0.0781 0.062
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% 0.142
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.286 -0.32 0.237
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 113 8.85% 28.38 95.58% 0.588 0.651
The Great River 3 191 35.08% 32.62 71.2% -0.464 0.8844 0.287
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.264 0.8263
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.092

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.121
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.331
All Things Weaken 8 27.0 62.5% -0.205 0.2553 -0.175
Back Against the Wall 9 31.11 77.78% 0.235 0.3968 0.18
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0%
Downward Spiral 12 25.67 66.67% 0.264 0.6165 -0.557
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% -0.079 0.3291 0.142
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.044
Memory Fades to Dust 13 27.31 53.85% -0.514
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.016
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.384
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.138 0.3953
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.046
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.25
Unnatural Proliferation 10 30.2 60.0% -0.383
Untended Land Crumbles 14 28.43 57.14% 0.115 0.4734

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 388 21.52% 42.66 83.76% -0.069 0.7709 -0.239
B 306 23.67% 30.02 77.78% 0.259 1.0376 0.028
C 397 20.0% 41.94 83.63% 0.003 0.6573 0.245
D 362 21.01% 40.78 83.7% -0.16 0.6396 0.142
E 202 26.5% 35.22 83.17% 0.176 0.8053 -0.539
F 187 25.95% 33.85 79.68% -0.308 0.4113 -0.257
G 155 36.77% 33.7 77.42% -0.027 0.7151 -0.192
H 212 21.7% 49.12 83.96% 0.105 0.7527 0.843

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.43 100.0% -0.208 0.675
Not Using Events or Tokens 42 10.0% 29.19 50.0% -0.747
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1% -0.208 -0.7432
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% -0.208 -0.5386 0.24
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% 0.027 0.0047 0.055
Using Tokens but Not Events 62 17.54% 27.68 83.87% -0.528 -0.582 0.138

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 57 21.03 15.79%
II 219 31.04 83.11%
III 197 34.74 92.89%
IV 101 38.02 99.01%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 181
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 99
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 55
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)