Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 4.135 100.0% 0.025 0.306
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.5 8.178 100.0% 0.137 0.5273
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 4.897 100.0% 0.135 1.0053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 35.8 -1.512 80.0% -0.343 -0.3053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 20.0% 41.0 1.554 100.0% 0.496 0.4657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.0 4.336 100.0% 0.124 0.1285
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 5.419 100.0% 0.065 0.3561
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 66.0 11.017 100.0% 0.199 0.5606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 7.738 100.0% 0.168 0.9965
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 100.0% 39.33 -0.371 33.33% -1.177 0.0675
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 -3.412 92.31% -0.124 0.2071
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 -2.933 40.0% -1.108 -0.6079
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 9.179 100.0% 0.217 1.1868
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 8.259 100.0% 0.028 1.6065
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -7.569 0.0% -0.582 0.9193
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 4.35% 36.0 0.961 17.39% -1.596 0.6559
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 -4.34 66.67% -0.064 0.4608
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.186 0.0% -0.779 1.3499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 3.483 66.67% -0.444 1.7429
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 0.0% 68.43 6.945 100.0% 0.195 2.337
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 14.29% 73.43 10.59 100.0% 0.239 2.0618
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 33 15.15% 77.76 12.815 96.97% 0.029 2.1444
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -6.544 66.67% -0.353 -0.2641
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 0.0% 30.25 -2.598 50.0% -0.898 -0.8786
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 5.275 100.0% 0.082 0.3049
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -4.904 0.0% -0.431 -0.1452
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 50.0 3.585 100.0% 0.018 0.7859
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 0.0% 64.54 8.635 100.0% 0.59 1.723
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -1.963 100.0% 0.41 0.2897
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 2.911 50.0% -0.374 0.068
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 10.429 100.0% 0.235 1.4854
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 5.816 87.5% -0.476 0.6477

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 26.0 -5.96 0.0% -0.603 -0.1998
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 0.327 33.33% -0.702 -0.3373
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 -5.078 50.0% -0.532 -0.0905
Second Wave 0 19 15.79% 31.79 -2.743 89.47% -0.51 -0.0856
The Great River 3 101 29.7% 35.22 -1.538 80.2% -1.396 0.0254
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 3.123 100.0% 0.284 1.3252

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7 40.0 -1.362 85.71% -0.006 2.0643
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.034 100.0% 0.258 2.1793
All Things Weaken 3 22.33 -5.434 66.67% -0.352 1.8015
Back Against the Wall 5 33.6 -2.493 80.0% -0.31 1.7866
Downward Spiral 6 32.67 -1.458 83.33% -0.062 1.9567
Erosion of Will 5 19.4 -5.668 40.0% -1.129 1.0814
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 20.0 -3.956 0.0% -0.517 0.1768
Memory Fades to Dust 8 31.88 -6.722 62.5% -0.76 1.4553
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 50.5 1.44 100.0% 0.346 2.3634
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -4.962 0.0% -0.38 1.8333
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 4 51.5 0.758 100.0% 0.163 0.5936
Thriving Communities 2 25.5 -7.849 50.0% -0.621 1.4745
Unnatural Proliferation 5 35.4 -0.343 80.0% -0.224 1.8623
Untended Land Crumbles 6 37.17 -2.746 66.67% -0.845 1.2511

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 213 20.0% 44.68 2.676 84.51% 0.488 -0.6134
B 167 21.34% 32.56 -4.973 77.84% -0.053 -1.2491
C 215 20.28% 43.8 0.541 82.79% -0.45 -1.8781
D 206 18.72% 42.74 0.534 83.5% 0.31 -0.881
E 81 28.4% 39.16 -1.125 86.42% 0.325 -0.9737
F 88 29.55% 38.03 -0.575 84.09% 0.088 -1.1658
G 76 30.26% 38.37 -0.494 84.21% -0.417 -1.6596
H 114 19.3% 53.13 3.868 87.72% -0.248 -1.5054

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -5.935 100.0% 0.165 2.2136
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 6.25% 31.35 -2.543 44.12% -0.621 -0.4001
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 19.05% 43.0 2.71 81.82% -0.369 -1.0738
Start of Game Growth 58 14.04% 39.52 0.923 91.38% 0.635 0.1829
Unlimited Undo 18 23.53% 39.72 -0.274 77.78% -0.291 -0.7082
Using Tokens but Not Events 22 28.57% 35.86 -0.848 86.36% 0.122 0.0708

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 32 22.33 18.75%
II 126 30.75 85.71%
III 87 34.25 96.55%
IV 45 37.47 97.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 75
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 97
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 41
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 36
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)