Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 60.0% 13.2 -2.332 20.0% -0.358 1.3415
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 15.67 -4.277 33.33% -0.193 0.2186
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 7.14% 44.21 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 32.0 -0.167 64.71% -0.263 -0.254
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 44.44% 38.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 37.57 -1.242 71.43% -0.276 -0.0033
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 38.46% 47.85 61.54%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 24 22.73% 23.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 0.0% 12.2 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 50.0% 43.0 4.429 50.0% 0.157 1.1973
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 45 11.11% 33.67 -2.351 26.67% -0.514 1.3848
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 22.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 38.0 1.823 100.0% 0.125 0.9034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 100.0% 11.33 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 87.5% 33.63 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 9.09% 62.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 11.11% 74.44 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 60 18.33% 74.62 18.332 91.67% 0.395 1.8303
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 50.0% 39.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 0.0 7.954 0.0% 0.139 0.2553
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 64.73 13.717 81.82% 0.167 1.2136
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 16 25.0% 20.75 -0.167 31.25% -0.263 -0.1305
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 77.78% 36.33 5.803 77.78% 0.186 0.4517
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 66.67% 34.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 20.0% 22.4 -14.188 40.0% -0.347 0.4176
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 10.71% 53.5 7.723 82.14% 0.214 1.2659
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.83 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 30.0% 47.4 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 54.55% 38.27 36.36%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 8 16.67% 24.63 75.0% 0.157 0.3717 0.061
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.34
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 57.0 71.43% -0.066 -0.6656 0.461
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0% -0.181
Second Wave 0 196 9.69% 27.55 94.39% 0.426 0.6754
The Great River 3 270 37.04% 28.46 59.63% -0.789 0.2767 -1.418
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 20.5 50.0% -0.759
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0% 0.136

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59% -0.138
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.827
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0% -0.147
Attenuated Essence 2 30.5 50.0% 0.331
Back Against the Wall 15 31.27 66.67% -0.181 -0.1278 0.012
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0% 0.151
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 25.0% -0.062 -0.0461 -0.664
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.22
Downward Spiral 17 29.35 64.71% 0.068 0.1421 0.288
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0% 0.399
Intensifying Exploitation 4 34.5 25.0% -0.173
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 42.2 60.0% 0.405
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.624
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 31.08 58.33% -0.331
Promising Farmlands 5 21.2 20.0% -0.618
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.5 50.0% 0.474
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.189
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 41.13 87.5% -0.228 -0.9253 -0.097
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% 0.029
Thriving Communities 10 33.1 50.0% 0.616
Unnatural Proliferation 20 32.5 75.0% -0.191
Untended Land Crumbles 16 29.0 56.25% 0.512 0.694 0.812

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 542 24.25% 36.88 74.17% 0.08 1.055 0.288
B 438 26.11% 26.97 68.95% -0.429 0.4608 -0.758
C 549 21.67% 36.63 74.13% -0.066 0.6261 -0.289
D 501 21.86% 35.66 74.85% 0.034 0.9295 -0.088
E 312 27.1% 32.45 76.92% -0.173 0.5561 -0.079
F 291 28.82% 31.54 73.88% 0.511 1.342 -0.036
G 219 37.61% 31.34 72.15% -0.058 0.721 0.291
H 280 23.57% 43.24 74.64% 0.121 0.9039 0.641

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 18.5 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 8.47% 21.76 39.68% -0.659 -0.2385 -0.98
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 15.15% 44.84 84.21%
Start of Game Growth 83 12.82% 42.35 90.36% 0.157 -0.2805 0.82
Unlimited Undo 50 17.78% 26.68 56.0% -0.436 -0.502 -0.342
Using Tokens but Not Events 107 12.87% 26.35 85.05% 0.518 0.4751 0.389

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 139 13.76 6.47%
II 274 30.19 79.2%
III 261 34.82 93.1%
IV 148 38.63 98.65%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 241
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 209
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 143
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 87
Lose: Adversary condition 8
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)