Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 45.23 84.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 25.0% 34.58 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12 41.67% 51.83 -6.355 66.67% -0.24 1.0466
The Kingdom of England 0 1 21 21.05% 26.29 -7.843 76.19% -0.203 0.2097
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 0.0% 20.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 35.48%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 85.71% 28.0 -2.828 28.57% -0.315 1.0452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 10 10.0% 68.8 9.922 100.0% 0.196 1.5412
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 11.11% 74.44 9.453 100.0% 0.154 1.1325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 56 16.07% 75.5 -6.317 92.86% -0.333 1.0889
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 64.0 9.983 100.0% 0.391 1.0634
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 -1.721 100.0% -0.278 0.3575
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 40.0% 82.2 14.412 100.0% 0.414 1.4664
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 21.36 -5.377 36.36% -0.266 -0.1987
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 87.5% 36.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 37.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 24 8.33% 57.29 -4.386 87.5% -0.441 0.5034
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 71.43% 30.71 2.108 71.43% 0.259 0.3229
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 30.0% 47.4 -7.954 70.0% -0.12 0.7574
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 60.0% 43.0 7.775 40.0% 0.1 1.92

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 0.0% 20.5 66.67% 0.184 0.4707 0.071
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.145
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6 0.0% 62.0 83.33% 0.501
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 173 9.25% 27.45 94.22% -0.077 0.0019
The Great River 3 246 37.4% 29.57 63.41% -0.291 1.0727 -1.614
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.135

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 37.88 75.0% -0.229 -0.1252 -0.06
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.62
All Things Weaken 9 25.67 55.56% -0.163
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% 0.113
Back Against the Wall 13 30.46 69.23% -0.212 -0.1469 0.086
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.558
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.151
Downward Spiral 14 31.64 71.43% -0.166 -0.0941 -0.031
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% 0.364
Intensifying Exploitation 2 18.5 0.0% -0.157 0.1167 -0.19
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 44.22 66.67% 0.269
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.754
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 32.18 63.64% -0.453 -0.2404 -0.237
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.528
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.125
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.037
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% -0.157 -0.6736 -0.061
Thriving Communities 9 34.56 55.56% 0.259 0.5827 0.452
Unnatural Proliferation 17 31.29 76.47% 0.088 0.2744 -0.191
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 473 24.35% 38.98 79.07% 0.444 1.3072 0.245
B 382 26.47% 28.31 73.82% -0.28 0.5415 -0.717
C 486 20.55% 38.46 78.6% -0.408 0.2897 0.257
D 436 21.91% 37.54 79.36% -0.44 0.4166 -0.304
E 267 26.42% 33.4 79.78% 0.001 0.6891 -0.333
F 244 28.1% 32.92 77.87% 0.483 1.3012 0.436
G 196 38.78% 32.62 76.02% 0.226 1.1067 0.09
H 254 23.23% 44.77 77.56% -0.01 0.7708 0.351

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 20.56 77.78%
Not Using Events or Tokens 48 11.36% 26.48 47.92% -0.673
Skip Initial Invader Actions 36 16.13% 46.14 86.11% 0.017 -0.5503
Start of Game Growth 79 12.16% 43.24 92.41% 0.017 -0.6474 0.631
Unlimited Undo 33 21.43% 36.7 78.79% -0.264 -0.241 0.072
Using Tokens but Not Events 86 13.58% 26.64 86.05% 0.218 0.266 0.38

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 95 15.45 9.47%
II 252 30.45 80.56%
III 234 34.8 93.59%
IV 138 38.47 98.55%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 217
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 196
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 133
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 44
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 60
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 41

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)