Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 0.0% 49.55 3.155 90.91% 0.124 0.0771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9 22.22% 39.22 2.002 88.89% 0.095 -0.137
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 0.238 71.43% -0.364 -0.1749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 -1.849 72.73% -0.444 1.0027
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 8.198 35.48% 0.033 2.5967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 94.44%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 28.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 78.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 44.44% 26.11 1.648 44.44% 0.097 0.3164
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 75.0% 30.5 -2.393 50.0% -0.374 -0.0943
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 64.24 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 83.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 0.0% 30.75 100.0% 0.089
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% 0.034 0.1311
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.033 0.2648 0.202
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 102 9.8% 28.4 95.1% 0.311 1.0031
The Great River 3 178 35.39% 33.95 74.16% -0.524 1.0573 0.221
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.103

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.134
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.342
All Things Weaken 8 27.0 62.5% 0.184
Back Against the Wall 9 31.11 77.78% 0.098
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0% 0.062 2.1902
Downward Spiral 10 25.4 60.0% -0.388 1.5734 -0.605
Erosion of Will 8 25.38 62.5% 0.095 2.1771
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.041
Memory Fades to Dust 13 27.31 53.85% -0.364 1.7765 -0.5
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.017
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.443
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.036
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% -0.374 1.6852 0.247
Unnatural Proliferation 10 30.2 60.0% -0.158 1.7989 -0.356
Untended Land Crumbles 12 27.25 58.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 379 21.51% 43.17 84.43% 0.097 0.8331 -0.204
B 287 23.13% 30.72 79.09% -0.209 0.4877 -0.174
C 380 20.38% 42.9 84.74% 0.43 0.8993 0.449
D 349 20.93% 41.64 84.81% 0.275 0.9848 0.077
E 193 27.23% 35.91 83.94% -0.375 0.1696 -0.483
F 177 25.14% 34.88 81.92% 0.104 0.7654 0.011
G 147 36.73% 34.5 78.23% -0.037 0.5941 -0.421
H 195 22.05% 51.91 86.15% -0.264 0.4005 0.777

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.43 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 42 10.0% 29.19 50.0% 0.11 0.3361 -0.696
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1%
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% 0.164
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76%
Using Tokens but Not Events 53 18.75% 30.32 90.57% 0.273 0.428 0.091

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 47 22.65 19.15%
II 213 31.08 83.1%
III 192 34.66 92.71%
IV 94 37.91 98.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 176
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 170
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 92
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 55
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)