Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 23.5 -7.32 50.0% -0.179 0.2009
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 11.329 100.0% 0.241 2.1892
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 45.23 -1.902 84.62% -0.242 -0.0351
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 25.0% 34.58 8.959 75.0% 0.358 0.3674
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 22.22% 27.6 -7.971 80.0% -0.309 0.0148
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 3.299 57.14% 0.249 0.5444
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 30.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 7.458 35.48% 0.106 2.0479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 75.0% 36.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 94.44%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 21.36 36.36%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 87.5% 36.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 37.33 -2.18 66.67% -0.31 0.3939
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 -5.159 50.0% -0.18 0.7553
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 0.0% 61.32 95.45%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 66.67% 29.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 -6.67 33.33% -0.295 0.6536
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 38.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 -5.435 75.0% -0.22 0.8902
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 22.22% 52.67 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 66.67% 47.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 0.0% 24.6 80.0% 0.055
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.067
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.505
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 147 8.84% 27.24 94.56% 0.632 0.7178
The Great River 3 226 35.4% 30.12 64.6% -0.59 0.7712 -1.225
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.213

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 40.4 80.0% -0.29 -0.1603 0.251
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.514
All Things Weaken 9 25.67 55.56% -0.31 -0.0028 -0.189
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% 0.241 0.2726 0.122
Back Against the Wall 12 30.83 75.0% 0.249 0.2792 0.301
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.554
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.419 0.7943 0.177
Downward Spiral 12 25.67 66.67% -0.271
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% 0.328
Intensifying Exploitation 1 15.0 0.0% -0.242 -0.0004
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 41.88 62.5% 0.039
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.091 0.2021 -0.63
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 39.13 75.0% 0.024
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.523
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.043
The Border of Life and Death 1 59.0 100.0% 0.107
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.314
Unnatural Proliferation 11 31.09 63.64% -0.26
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 439 22.56% 39.83 79.73% 0.078 1.2206 0.143
B 353 25.8% 28.6 73.94% 0.329 1.3843 -0.45
C 446 19.45% 39.01 79.6% -0.657 0.2313 0.435
D 411 21.78% 38.33 80.29% -0.121 0.9333 -0.511
E 241 25.52% 33.14 80.5% 0.147 1.0515 -0.052
F 217 26.98% 31.75 76.96% -0.036 0.9684 0.013
G 177 38.42% 32.53 76.27% 0.129 1.0971 -0.194
H 235 23.4% 46.17 79.57% 0.146 1.1385 0.641

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 20.56 77.78% -0.233 0.4304
Not Using Events or Tokens 47 11.63% 27.04 48.94% -0.324 0.1704 -0.559
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1%
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% 0.498
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% 0.088
Using Tokens but Not Events 75 15.71% 26.77 84.0% 0.315 0.3902 0.365

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 82 16.77 10.98%
II 235 30.59 80.43%
III 218 34.74 93.12%
IV 124 38.3 98.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 201
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 182
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 119
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 33
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 60
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)