Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 4.465 100.0% 0.032 0.3149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.5 8.241 100.0% 0.119 0.5133
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 5.071 100.0% 0.126 0.9872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 43.0 1.904 100.0% 0.148 0.1911
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 20.0% 41.0 2.115 100.0% 0.561 0.5354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 43.0 4.4 100.0% 0.117 0.1175
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 5.526 100.0% 0.074 0.3667
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 2 50.0% 66.0 10.62 100.0% 0.196 0.5668
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 8.324 100.0% 0.157 0.9954
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 100.0% 39.33 -0.103 33.33% -1.171 0.0778
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 -3.407 92.31% -0.069 0.2615
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 -2.898 40.0% -1.105 -0.6154
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 52.0 8.895 100.0% 0.178 1.1421
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 8.471 100.0% 0.029 1.6093
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -8.135 0.0% -0.552 0.9619
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 4.35% 36.0 1.154 17.39% -1.589 0.6681
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 1 100.0% 13.0 -8.001 0.0% -0.302 0.2237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 20.0 -3.149 0.0% -0.734 1.3939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 3.745 66.67% -0.368 1.8163
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 0.0% 68.43 7.794 100.0% 0.228 2.379
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 6 16.67% 73.67 10.774 100.0% 0.231 2.0573
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 24 20.83% 77.0 13.231 95.83% -0.056 2.0714
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -6.172 66.67% -0.286 -0.1976
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 0.0% 25.0 -4.46 33.33% -1.067 -1.0559
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 4.91 100.0% 0.072 0.2917
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -5.032 0.0% -0.383 -0.0997
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 50.0 4.217 100.0% 0.024 0.7948
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 12 0.0% 64.75 9.153 100.0% 0.599 1.7303
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -2.245 100.0% 0.385 0.2627
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 2.836 50.0% -0.457 -0.0195
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 10.464 100.0% 0.229 1.4878
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 40.0% 49.4 5.633 80.0% -0.614 0.5257

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 0.424 33.33% -0.662 -0.2963
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 -4.677 50.0% -0.523 -0.0814
Second Wave 0 19 15.79% 31.79 -2.74 89.47% -0.471 -0.0547
The Great River 3 92 31.52% 35.05 -1.624 79.35% -1.499 -0.0273
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 3.204 100.0% 0.274 1.3102

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7 40.0 -1.482 85.71% -0.078 1.992
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.128 100.0% 0.275 2.1936
All Things Weaken 3 22.33 -5.497 66.67% -0.343 1.8119
Back Against the Wall 5 33.6 -2.143 80.0% -0.275 1.821
Downward Spiral 5 31.8 -1.946 80.0% -0.127 1.8898
Erosion of Will 5 19.4 -5.373 40.0% -1.16 1.0494
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 20.0 -4.232 0.0% -0.491 0.2139
Memory Fades to Dust 7 33.43 -5.78 57.14% -0.828 1.387
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 57.67 3.259 100.0% 0.21 2.2304
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -4.795 0.0% -0.384 1.8285
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 3 62.0 4.088 100.0% 0.145 0.5806
Thriving Communities 2 25.5 -7.671 50.0% -0.566 1.5318
Unnatural Proliferation 5 35.4 -0.579 80.0% -0.285 1.7922
Untended Land Crumbles 6 37.17 -2.591 66.67% -0.819 1.2799

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 187 22.28% 43.26 2.515 82.89% 0.534 -0.5551
B 160 21.66% 32.63 -4.964 77.5% 0.036 -1.1489
C 188 21.62% 42.52 0.622 81.38% -0.423 -1.8381
D 188 18.92% 41.46 0.456 82.45% 0.278 -0.8987
E 67 29.85% 38.57 -1.003 85.07% 0.226 -1.0505
F 78 32.05% 37.55 -0.586 83.33% 0.148 -1.0946
G 75 29.33% 38.39 -0.567 84.0% -0.422 -1.6522
H 97 19.59% 51.74 3.774 86.6% -0.337 -1.5767

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -5.968 100.0% 0.145 2.1889
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 6.25% 31.35 -2.294 44.12% -0.588 -0.3686
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 17.65% 45.06 3.238 83.33% -0.318 -1.0225
Start of Game Growth 53 13.46% 39.98 1.148 92.45% 0.736 0.2812
Unlimited Undo 15 21.43% 41.53 0.205 80.0% -0.253 -0.665
Using Tokens but Not Events 20 26.32% 35.45 -1.237 85.0% 0.081 0.0336

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31 22.34 19.35%
II 109 30.75 83.49%
III 78 34.26 96.15%
IV 42 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 66
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 39
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 34
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)