Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 -1.738 50.0% -0.213 0.906
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 -3.231 0.0% -0.31 1.2212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 6.271 100.0% 0.082 2.3424
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 10 0.0% 50.5 90.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8 12.5% 39.0 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 40.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 40.0% 59.7 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 92.31%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 9.882 35.48% 0.073 2.3721
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 12.5% 66.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 19.148 94.44% 0.067 2.434
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 50.0% 24.13 37.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 50.0% 43.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 64.24 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 -4.526 50.0% -0.301 0.4731
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 87.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 83.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2 0.0% 28.5 100.0% 0.151 0.408
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 37.5 50.0% 0.109 0.5221
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% -0.301 0.0045 0.125
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 78 6.41% 29.04 96.15% 0.263 0.829
The Great River 3 164 33.54% 33.82 75.0% -0.486 0.912 0.086
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.089

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.12
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 41.5 80.0% 0.073 1.803 0.31
All Things Weaken 6 28.33 50.0% -0.307 1.6787 0.197
Back Against the Wall 8 31.0 75.0% 0.067 1.8835 0.088
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0%
Downward Spiral 9 27.11 66.67% 0.075 2.0684 -0.56
Erosion of Will 7 23.14 57.14%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 39.83 50.0% 0.158 0.5993 0.04
Memory Fades to Dust 11 28.55 54.55% 0.053 2.1373 -0.517
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.104 2.0428 0.017
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.441
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.201 0.626 0.047
Thriving Communities 7 37.0 57.14% 0.233
Unnatural Proliferation 7 32.86 71.43% -0.31 1.6548
Untended Land Crumbles 9 31.0 66.67%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 350 20.87% 44.13 84.57% -0.375 0.422 -0.482
B 259 22.75% 31.14 78.76% -0.386 0.3579 -0.244
C 349 19.48% 43.95 84.81% -0.093 0.475 0.226
D 326 19.88% 42.5 84.66% -0.26 0.5357 0.337
E 166 26.67% 37.15 84.94% 0.374 1.0211 -0.341
F 152 25.83% 35.63 82.24% 0.447 1.1713 -0.161
G 128 35.94% 35.94 78.13% 0.33 1.0614 -0.217
H 183 19.67% 53.44 86.89% -0.023 0.6896 0.901

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 25.4 100.0% 0.066 2.195
Not Using Events or Tokens 41 10.26% 29.44 48.78% -0.68
Skip Initial Invader Actions 29 15.38% 41.17 86.21% 0.066 -0.0765
Start of Game Growth 69 12.12% 39.51 92.75% 0.066 -0.6947
Unlimited Undo 27 20.83% 35.48 81.48% 0.066 -0.5383
Using Tokens but Not Events 43 20.0% 31.47 88.37% -0.222 -0.3786

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43 22.56 16.28%
II 202 30.98 84.16%
III 163 34.53 93.25%
IV 85 37.77 98.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 150
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 164
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 83
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 53
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)