Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 -6.183 60.0% -0.183 0.094
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 13.93 100.0% 0.225 2.1559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 45.23 -0.965 84.62% -0.172 0.0437
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 25.0% 34.58 10.887 75.0% 0.34 0.2699
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 -10.145 75.0% -0.22 0.005
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 22.22% 27.6 0.874 80.0% 0.007 0.2169
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 30.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 17.303 35.48% 0.195 2.1898
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 75.0% 36.75 -5.333 50.0% -0.245 1.1524
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 94.44%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 5.723 100.0% 0.226 0.9212
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 21.36 -2.438 36.36% -0.125 -0.0296
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 85.71% 35.86 4.132 71.43% 0.45 0.5586
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 37.33 -3.078 66.67% -0.255 0.3649
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 0.0% 61.32 95.45%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 60.0% 24.6 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 38.0 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 -5.534 75.0% -0.251 0.7805
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 22.22% 52.67 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 66.67% 47.67 33.33%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 0.0% 24.6 80.0% 0.064
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.031
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.524
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 134 8.96% 27.38 94.78% 0.141 0.2212
The Great River 3 216 34.26% 30.51 65.28% -0.73 0.3988 -1.02
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.177

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13 45.23 92.31% 0.45 0.6097 0.216
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.502
All Things Weaken 9 25.67 55.56% -0.255 0.0872 -0.169
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% 0.225 0.299 0.114
Back Against the Wall 10 30.2 70.0% 0.293
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.556
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 18.5 50.0%
Downward Spiral 12 25.67 66.67% -0.29
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% 0.375
Intensifying Exploitation 1 15.0 0.0% -0.172 0.0662
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.07 0.2104 -0.642
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 39.13 75.0% 0.338 0.4907 0.023
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.517
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.046
The Border of Life and Death 1 59.0 100.0% 0.226 -0.2068 0.122
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.292
Unnatural Proliferation 10 30.2 60.0% -0.29
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 425 22.06% 40.42 80.0% 0.052 1.0465 -0.025
B 340 24.92% 28.68 73.82% -0.016 0.9024 -0.536
C 434 19.48% 39.71 80.65% -0.305 0.4373 0.51
D 400 21.32% 38.69 80.5% 0.403 1.355 -0.497
E 226 25.45% 33.55 80.53% 0.112 0.8927 -0.141
F 201 25.13% 32.37 77.11% -0.303 0.5898 0.068
G 170 37.65% 32.62 75.88% 0.141 0.996 -0.154
H 229 22.71% 46.84 80.35% -0.081 0.7667 0.799

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 23.13 87.5%
Not Using Events or Tokens 46 11.63% 27.63 50.0% 0.193 0.6997 -0.505
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1%
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% 0.479
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% 0.084
Using Tokens but Not Events 72 16.42% 26.58 83.33% 0.073 0.0462 0.348

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 78 17.67 11.54%
II 230 30.7 80.87%
III 211 34.75 92.89%
IV 114 38.22 99.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 194
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 179
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 111
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 28
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 60
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)