Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 40.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 0.0% 49.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 30.0% 36.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 63.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 21.43% 31.06 9.597 93.75% 0.343 0.6085
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 30.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.016 0.0% -0.148 1.4927
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 35.48%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 -5.016 50.0% -0.148 0.2549
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 54 14.81% 76.35 94.44%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.471 0.0% -0.127 -0.1108
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 2.922 0.0% -0.165 0.2654
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 78.0 5.888 100.0% 0.165 0.949
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4 25.0% 16.0 -4.918 50.0% -0.227 -0.0472
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 40.0% 23.5 -3.423 40.0% -0.129 -0.1028
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 75.0% 30.5 5.888 50.0% 0.165 0.3885
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 0.0% 61.32 3.635 95.45% 0.016 0.9029
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 60.0% 24.6 -4.918 60.0% -0.227 -0.106
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 0.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 80.0% 41.2 60.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 22.22% 52.67 2.922 77.78% -0.165 0.7399
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 66.67% 47.67 0.146 33.33% -0.461 1.3792

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 0.0% 24.6 80.0% -0.164 0.0336 0.057
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% 0.257
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 39.5 75.0% 0.372 -0.2722 0.382
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 118 8.47% 28.14 95.76% 0.651 0.7172
The Great River 3 193 34.72% 32.47 70.47% -0.213 1.0048 -0.341
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.116

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10 45.9 90.0% 0.157
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 39.45 72.73% 0.413
All Things Weaken 8 27.0 62.5% -0.126
Back Against the Wall 9 31.11 77.78% 0.224
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.461 -0.251 -0.568
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 19.0 0.0%
Downward Spiral 12 25.67 66.67% -0.331
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% -0.107 0.202 0.257
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 39.86 57.14% 0.048
Memory Fades to Dust 13 27.31 53.85% -0.54
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7 36.86 71.43% 0.023
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.506
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.129 0.2705
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.041
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.283
Unnatural Proliferation 10 30.2 60.0% -0.397
Untended Land Crumbles 14 28.43 57.14% 0.343 0.6246

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 396 21.59% 42.27 83.08% -0.284 0.4564 -0.454
B 311 23.93% 29.87 77.17% 0.199 0.9249 -0.431
C 402 19.75% 41.67 83.33% 0.327 0.9094 0.464
D 368 21.21% 40.51 82.88% -0.203 0.5081 -0.248
E 204 26.24% 35.15 82.84% -0.123 0.4428 -0.32
F 188 25.81% 33.79 79.79% -0.149 0.5208 0.14
G 157 36.31% 33.59 77.71% 0.265 0.9163 0.118
H 214 22.43% 48.94 83.18% -0.052 0.5184 0.758

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.43 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 42 10.0% 29.19 50.0% -0.576
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 15.38% 40.39 87.1%
Start of Game Growth 74 11.59% 40.64 93.24% 0.399
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% 0.079
Using Tokens but Not Events 63 17.24% 27.68 84.13% -0.144 -0.1541 0.247

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 58 20.4 15.52%
II 222 31.01 81.98%
III 201 34.76 93.03%
IV 102 38.07 99.02%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 185
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 175
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 100
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 10
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 56
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)