Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 47.0 3.787 100.0% 0.02 0.3091
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.5 7.55 100.0% 0.136 0.5501
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 48.0 3.86 100.0% 0.126 1.0087
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 68.0 7.149 100.0% 0.034 2.0771
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 35.8 -1.294 80.0% -0.215 -0.1742
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 14.29% 37.86 0.858 85.71% 0.181 0.1625
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 25.0% 44.25 4.083 100.0% 0.127 0.1408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 5.642 100.0% 0.091 0.3746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 66.0 11.41 100.0% 0.18 0.5388
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 6.871 100.0% 0.126 0.9511
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 100.0% 46.5 0.897 50.0% -1.136 0.1037
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 0.0% 29.77 -3.462 92.31% -0.201 0.1291
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 28.4 -3.135 40.0% -1.079 -0.5618
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 3.594 66.67% -0.086 0.887
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 0.0% 61.0 7.7 100.0% 0.017 1.5965
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 -7.3 0.0% -0.649 0.8456
The Kingdom of England 6 11 29 6.9% 44.28 3.382 34.48% -1.424 0.8197
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 26.33 -3.521 66.67% 0.01 0.5218
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 -6.288 0.0% -0.974 1.1667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 49.0 3.578 66.67% -0.424 1.7742
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 12.5% 66.75 6.905 100.0% 0.152 2.3131
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 14.29% 73.43 9.911 100.0% 0.188 2.0059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 46 17.39% 75.57 11.535 93.48% -0.783 1.3085
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 21.33 -5.634 66.67% -0.289 -0.2006
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 42.86% 23.86 -3.768 28.57% -1.181 -1.1461
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 36.0 5.13 100.0% 0.077 0.315
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 19.0 -4.696 0.0% -0.385 -0.0944
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 48.5 3.639 100.0% 0.038 0.8191
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 57.0 2.807 100.0% 0.015 1.183
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 0.0% 64.41 8.066 100.0% 0.622 1.744
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 100.0% 31.0 -1.287 100.0% 0.44 0.3517
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 54.0 7.905 100.0% 0.061 0.8399
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 38.5 3.861 50.0% -0.237 0.1751
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 33.33% 59.0 10.643 100.0% 0.238 1.482
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 25.0% 54.88 5.285 87.5% -0.502 0.6063
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 8.235 100.0% 0.016 2.0003

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 26.0 -5.225 0.0% -0.523 -0.1226
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 -10.849 100.0% 0.013 0.5154
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 7.41% 35.3 -0.461 33.33% -0.98 -0.6153
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 -5.505 50.0% -0.642 -0.1953
Second Wave 0 21 14.29% 32.95 -2.3 90.48% -0.454 -0.0242
The Great River 3 134 32.09% 33.45 -2.523 76.12% -1.537 -0.0641
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 50.83 2.709 100.0% 0.238 1.2701

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 9 47.11 0.823 88.89% 0.074 2.1432
Aid From Lesser Spirits 6 47.0 3.383 100.0% 0.307 2.2198
All Things Weaken 5 32.2 -2.588 60.0% -0.53 1.6295
Back Against the Wall 8 31.0 -2.457 75.0% -0.322 1.765
Downward Spiral 7 31.0 -3.321 71.43% -0.656 1.3653
Erosion of Will 7 23.14 -4.269 57.14% -0.704 1.5034
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 40.4 0.707 40.0% -0.435 0.2441
Memory Fades to Dust 9 30.11 -7.356 55.56% -1.011 1.2036
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 42.6 -1.936 80.0% -0.166 1.8548
Promising Farmlands 1 31.0 -6.413 0.0% -0.411 1.7971
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 46.2 -0.767 100.0% 0.191 0.6029
Thriving Communities 4 28.75 -4.787 50.0% -0.833 1.2548
Unnatural Proliferation 6 35.33 0.362 83.33% 0.027 2.1079
Untended Land Crumbles 7 33.86 -3.501 57.14% -1.043 1.059

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 267 21.59% 45.64 3.291 84.64% 0.571 -0.1168
B 193 23.68% 31.91 -5.238 76.68% -0.229 -1.013
C 269 19.55% 45.06 0.942 83.64% -0.371 -1.3835
D 258 20.78% 43.81 0.788 84.11% 0.462 -0.3153
E 113 27.43% 38.96 -1.148 84.07% 0.358 -0.5359
F 110 29.09% 36.87 -0.724 79.09% -0.09 -0.9312
G 92 36.96% 36.47 -0.723 79.35% -0.374 -1.206
H 146 21.92% 53.02 3.582 85.62% -0.287 -1.1257

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 3 0.0% 23.0 -6.124 100.0% 0.131 2.1839
Not Using Events or Tokens 38 5.56% 30.45 -3.448 50.0% -0.411 -0.1967
Skip Initial Invader Actions 23 18.18% 42.96 2.977 82.61% -0.435 -1.1218
Start of Game Growth 63 12.9% 40.0 1.406 92.06% 0.893 0.4241
Unlimited Undo 23 22.73% 36.83 -1.013 78.26% -0.239 -0.6619
Using Tokens but Not Events 25 25.0% 35.44 -0.243 88.0% 0.308 0.2575

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37 22.37 16.22%
II 158 30.88 85.44%
III 105 34.39 92.38%
IV 62 37.55 98.39%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 88
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 124
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 58
Lose: Adversary condition 5
Lose: Scenario condition 44
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)