Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 45.23 84.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 25.0% 34.58 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 22.22% 27.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 -0.539 57.14% 0.101 0.4042
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 0.0% 20.33 -9.864 33.33% -0.281 0.9141
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 35.48%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 80.0% 34.8 -1.672 40.0% -0.309 1.0825
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 55 14.55% 76.36 16.631 94.55% 0.245 1.6649
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 50.0% 85.0 10.564 100.0% 0.403 1.3701
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 21.36 36.36%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 87.5% 36.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 37.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 0.0% 61.32 95.45%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 66.67% 29.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 22.22% 52.67 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 50.0% 35.75 -16.362 25.0% -0.504 1.1641

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 0.0% 20.5 66.67% -0.2 0.001 0.069
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.074
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6 0.0% 62.0 83.33% 0.498
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 162 9.26% 27.06 94.44% 0.645 0.726
The Great River 3 232 35.34% 29.81 63.79% -0.64 0.747 -1.276
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.183

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 40.4 80.0% -0.341 -0.2022 0.234
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.565
All Things Weaken 9 25.67 55.56% -0.19
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% 0.138
Back Against the Wall 12 30.83 75.0% 0.101 0.1771 0.27
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.522
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.279 0.648 0.183
Downward Spiral 13 28.54 69.23% 0.094 0.2905 -0.254
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% 0.364
Intensifying Exploitation 1 15.0 0.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 44.22 66.67% 0.154 -0.3574 0.186
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.605
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 36.22 77.78% 0.156 0.4509 0.031
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.513
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.309 0.091 -0.133
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.039
The Border of Life and Death 1 59.0 100.0% 0.126
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.374
Unnatural Proliferation 13 30.15 69.23% -0.22
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 457 22.99% 39.3 79.43% -0.204 0.7006 0.158
B 368 25.56% 28.36 74.18% -0.299 0.529 -0.448
C 467 19.65% 38.83 79.66% -0.114 0.5659 0.409
D 422 21.45% 38.05 80.09% 0.154 1.0072 -0.274
E 257 25.88% 33.55 80.16% 0.249 0.9507 -0.241
F 229 26.87% 32.31 77.29% 0.361 1.1425 0.154
G 184 38.59% 32.06 75.54% 0.227 0.9992 -0.165
H 244 23.36% 45.12 78.28% -0.361 0.4077 0.415

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 20.56 77.78% -0.35 0.4806
Not Using Events or Tokens 48 11.36% 26.48 47.92% -0.55 -0.109 -0.669
Skip Initial Invader Actions 33 14.29% 44.42 87.88%
Start of Game Growth 76 11.27% 42.38 93.42% 0.501
Unlimited Undo 29 20.83% 35.03 82.76% 0.069
Using Tokens but Not Events 81 14.47% 26.65 85.19% 0.42 0.3968 0.375

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 88 16.23 10.23%
II 245 30.54 80.82%
III 226 34.77 93.36%
IV 130 38.37 98.46%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 209
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 191
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 125
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 38
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 60
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)