Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 0.0 -6.841 0.0% -0.459 1.2879
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 15.67 -3.14 33.33% -0.101 0.2914
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 7.14% 44.21 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 23.08% 34.38 76.92%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 44.44% 38.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 37.57 0.009 71.43% -0.135 0.1273
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 38.46% 47.85 -19.845 61.54% -0.391 0.8377
The Kingdom of England 0 1 24 22.73% 23.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 0.0% 12.2 -5.487 20.0% -0.093 1.0355
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 34 14.71% 43.76 -0.394 35.29% -0.091 1.7624
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 100.0% 11.33 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 87.5% 33.63 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 9.09% 62.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 11.11% 74.44 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 60 18.33% 74.62 16.764 91.67% 0.647 2.1172
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 50.0% 39.75 12.978 75.0% 0.442 0.76
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 0.0 -4.135 0.0% -0.108 0.1781
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 64.73 1.596 81.82% 0.014 1.1611
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 33.33% 19.58 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 87.5% 36.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 66.67% 34.0 -2.899 33.33% -0.225 0.2261
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 25.0% 28.0 -2.165 50.0% -0.048 0.6962
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 27 11.11% 53.41 81.48%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.83 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 30.0% 47.4 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 54.55% 38.27 8.989 36.36% 0.392 2.1716

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 7 0.0% 20.14 71.43% 0.267 0.6905 0.066
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.347
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6 0.0% 62.0 83.33% 0.632
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0% -0.179
Second Wave 0 187 9.09% 27.46 94.12% 0.192 0.2861
The Great River 3 264 37.88% 28.59 60.23% -0.269 0.9766 -1.413
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 20.5 50.0% -0.091 0.7771 -0.745
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0% 0.128

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59% -0.158
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.824
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0% -0.184
Attenuated Essence 2 30.5 50.0% 0.342
Back Against the Wall 15 31.27 66.67% -0.139 -0.1546 0.009
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0% 0.144
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 27.33 0.0% -0.068 0.0188 -0.629
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.207
Downward Spiral 16 27.69 62.5% -0.067 0.0387 0.204
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0% 0.292 0.4575 0.444
Intensifying Exploitation 4 34.5 25.0% 0.305 0.4935 -0.148
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 42.2 60.0% 0.387
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.64
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 31.08 58.33% -0.361
Promising Farmlands 5 21.2 20.0% -0.601
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.5 50.0% 0.465
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.155
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 47.0 100.0% 0.075
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% 0.02
Thriving Communities 10 33.1 50.0% -0.225 0.0007 0.598
Unnatural Proliferation 19 32.68 73.68% -0.045 0.0773 -0.211
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 516 24.9% 37.94 76.16% 0.622 1.5405 0.242
B 414 26.91% 27.59 70.77% -0.299 0.5424 -0.779
C 529 21.73% 37.53 76.18% -0.063 0.6204 -0.273
D 470 22.46% 36.86 77.23% 0.225 1.067 -0.126
E 300 27.18% 32.69 77.0% 0.264 0.9152 0.012
F 281 28.78% 31.67 73.31% -0.546 0.2137 0.004
G 214 38.03% 31.39 72.43% -0.246 0.5113 0.276
H 275 24.0% 43.51 75.27% 0.029 0.7475 0.614

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 18.5 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 50 10.87% 26.88 50.0% -0.551
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 15.15% 44.84 84.21% -0.108 -0.8385
Start of Game Growth 82 11.69% 42.18 90.24% -0.108 -0.5539 0.813
Unlimited Undo 37 21.88% 34.54 72.97% -0.108 -0.1409 0.048
Using Tokens but Not Events 99 12.9% 25.91 83.84% 0.084 -0.0785 0.399

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 121 14.25 7.44%
II 271 30.3 79.34%
III 251 34.84 92.83%
IV 144 38.61 98.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 207
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 139
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 71
Lose: Adversary condition 8
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 62
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)