Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 60.0% 13.2 11.004 20.0% 0.258 2.0281
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 15.67 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 7.14% 44.21 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 32.0 -1.62 64.71% -0.562 -0.6163
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 44.44% 38.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 57.14% 37.57 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 38.46% 47.85 61.54%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 24 22.73% 23.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 0.0% 12.2 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 50.0% 43.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 46 13.04% 33.61 -3.29 26.09% -0.836 1.0001
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 22.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 38.0 2.61 100.0% 0.143 0.9708
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 100.0% 11.33 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 87.5% 33.63 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 9.09% 62.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 11.11% 74.44 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 61 18.03% 74.67 14.695 91.8% 0.27 1.6422
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 50.0% 39.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 64.73 81.82%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 16 25.0% 20.75 -1.62 31.25% -0.562 -0.5389
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 77.78% 36.33 7.129 77.78% 0.24 0.4365
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 66.67% 34.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 20.0% 22.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 10.71% 53.5 82.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.83 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 30.0% 47.4 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 54.55% 38.27 36.36%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 8 16.67% 24.63 75.0% 0.076
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.293
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 57.0 71.43% 0.506
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0% -0.157
Second Wave 0 201 9.45% 27.52 94.53% 0.311 0.4489
The Great River 3 273 37.0% 28.45 59.71% -0.149 0.9512 -1.393
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 20.5 50.0% -0.797
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0% 0.155

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59% -0.148
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.811
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0% -0.114
Attenuated Essence 2 30.5 50.0% 0.324
Back Against the Wall 15 31.27 66.67% 0.012
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0% 0.147
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 25.0% 0.143 0.1538 -0.705
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.217
Downward Spiral 17 29.35 64.71% 0.335
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0% 0.416
Intensifying Exploitation 4 34.5 25.0% -0.178
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 40.27 63.64% 0.188 -0.3849 0.427
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.521
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 29.79 50.0% -0.539 -0.3342 -0.684
Promising Farmlands 5 21.2 20.0% -0.602
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.5 50.0% 0.489
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.17
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 41.13 87.5% -0.108
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% 0.043
Thriving Communities 10 33.1 50.0% 0.63
Unnatural Proliferation 20 32.5 75.0% -0.188
Untended Land Crumbles 16 29.0 56.25% 0.258 0.4487 0.785

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 548 24.35% 36.83 73.91% -0.13 0.8675 0.259
B 443 25.81% 26.99 69.3% 0.145 1.0675 -0.763
C 558 21.68% 36.5 74.19% -0.044 0.685 -0.23
D 505 21.89% 35.68 75.05% 0.189 1.1484 -0.042
E 318 27.22% 32.25 76.42% -0.448 0.3709 -0.108
F 295 29.11% 31.39 73.22% 0.032 0.9135 -0.076
G 224 37.67% 31.28 72.32% 0.134 0.959 0.182
H 284 23.59% 43.18 75.0% 0.139 0.9783 0.749

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 18.5 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 63 8.47% 21.76 39.68% -0.801 -0.4549 -1.007
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 15.15% 44.84 84.21%
Start of Game Growth 83 12.82% 42.35 90.36% 0.864
Unlimited Undo 50 17.78% 26.68 56.0% -0.801 -0.9077 -0.354
Using Tokens but Not Events 111 13.33% 26.37 84.68% 0.283 0.2533 0.028

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 141 13.42 6.38%
II 278 30.13 79.5%
III 266 34.83 92.86%
IV 149 38.67 98.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 245
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 213
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 144
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 88
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)