Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 60.0% 13.2 20.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 15.67 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 7.14% 44.21 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 17.65% 32.0 -1.244 64.71% -0.185 -0.2182
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 44.44% 38.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 62.5% 38.88 2.341 75.0% 0.078 0.3198
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 38.46% 47.85 61.54%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 24 22.73% 23.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 0.0% 12.2 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 50.0% 43.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 46 13.04% 33.61 2.242 26.09% -0.125 1.7179
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5 60.0% 22.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 38.0 2.427 100.0% 0.147 1.0242
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 100.0% 11.33 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 87.5% 33.63 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 9.09% 62.55 90.91%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 9 11.11% 74.44 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 61 18.03% 74.67 13.13 91.8% 0.229 1.6224
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 27.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 50.0% 39.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 45.45% 64.73 81.82%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 16 25.0% 20.75 -1.244 31.25% -0.185 -0.1504
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 81.82% 35.55 0.968 81.82% 0.301 0.5419
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 3 66.67% 34.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 20.0% 22.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 3 33.33% 19.0 -6.47 33.33% -0.401 0.6979
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 28 10.71% 53.5 82.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 22.83 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 10 30.0% 47.4 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 11 54.55% 38.27 36.36%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 8 16.67% 24.63 75.0% 0.072
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.288
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7 0.0% 57.0 71.43% 0.502
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 80.0% 16.0 40.0% -0.151
Second Wave 0 201 9.45% 27.52 94.53% 0.352 0.4691
The Great River 3 274 36.86% 28.35 59.49% -0.254 0.8143 -1.402
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 20.5 50.0% -0.811
Ward the Shores 2 7 16.67% 43.71 100.0% 0.15

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 35.65 70.59% -0.177
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.8
All Things Weaken 10 24.2 50.0% -0.121
Attenuated Essence 2 30.5 50.0% 0.316
Back Against the Wall 15 31.27 66.67% 0.004
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 73.0 100.0% 0.147
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 30.0 25.0% 0.147 0.128 -0.711
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.207
Downward Spiral 17 29.35 64.71% 0.314
Erosion of Will 10 28.4 60.0% 0.418
Intensifying Exploitation 4 34.5 25.0% -0.202
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 40.27 63.64% 0.096 -0.4286 0.416
Memory Fades to Dust 15 26.87 53.33% 0.078 0.3254 -0.524
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 29.79 50.0% -0.612 -0.3902 -0.682
Promising Farmlands 5 21.2 20.0% -0.592
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 37.75 75.0% 0.177 0.2541 0.474
Slow Dissolution of Will 3 9.0 0.0% -0.401 -0.0035 -0.173
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 41.13 87.5% -0.116
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% 0.037
Thriving Communities 10 33.1 50.0% 0.62
Unnatural Proliferation 20 32.5 75.0% -0.186
Untended Land Crumbles 16 29.0 56.25% 0.798

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 549 24.49% 36.85 73.95% 0.156 1.1608 0.271
B 447 26.48% 27.0 69.35% 0.277 1.1967 -0.778
C 563 22.2% 36.38 74.07% -0.212 0.5229 -0.279
D 510 22.47% 35.55 74.9% 0.239 1.2167 -0.053
E 319 27.13% 32.14 76.18% -0.283 0.537 -0.086
F 295 29.11% 31.39 73.22% -0.223 0.651 -0.043
G 224 37.67% 31.28 72.32% -0.128 0.6809 0.156
H 288 24.31% 42.8 74.65% 0.189 1.0039 0.783

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 18.5 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 64 10.0% 22.17 40.63% 0.078 0.4461 -1.008
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 15.15% 44.84 84.21%
Start of Game Growth 83 12.82% 42.35 90.36% 0.875
Unlimited Undo 50 17.78% 26.68 56.0% 0.224 0.1143 -0.174
Using Tokens but Not Events 112 13.21% 26.13 83.93% -0.301 -0.3266 0.013

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 143 13.33 6.29%
II 278 30.1 79.5%
III 269 34.83 92.94%
IV 149 38.67 98.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 248
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 213
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 144
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 90
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 65
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)