Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 32.6 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 37.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13 7.69% 45.23 84.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 25.0% 34.58 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7 42.86% 37.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 3 33.33% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 47.25 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 64.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 45.45% 56.55 72.73%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 20 22.22% 27.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 57.14% 30.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 0.0% 42.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 0.0% 20.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 30.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 9.68% 45.13 35.48%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 19.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 85.71% 28.0 -2.716 28.57% -0.321 0.9559
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 9 11.11% 66.78 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 12.5% 73.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 55 14.55% 76.36 15.211 94.55% 0.244 1.6789
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 35.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 66.67% 35.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 71.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 50.0% 85.0 8.473 100.0% 0.185 1.2492
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 16.67% 10.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 11 36.36% 21.36 36.36%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 87.5% 36.38 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 50.0% 41.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 37.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 0.0% 28.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 24 8.33% 57.29 -2.551 87.5% -0.399 0.6559
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 66.67% 29.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 0.0% 23.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 62.5% 55.25 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 25.0% 44.25 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 9 22.22% 52.67 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 50.0% 35.75 -12.819 25.0% -0.482 1.2538

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 6 0.0% 20.5 66.67% 0.208 0.4958 0.07
Dahan Insurrection 4 3 0.0% 39.33 66.67% -0.12
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 19.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6 0.0% 62.0 83.33% 0.534
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 100.0% 20.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 169 8.88% 27.05 94.67% 0.564 0.5947
The Great River 3 238 36.13% 29.55 63.03% -0.345 1.0799 -1.532
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 27.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 43.83 100.0% 0.206

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 16 37.88 75.0% -0.231 -0.056 0.05
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 37.25 66.67% 0.613
All Things Weaken 9 25.67 55.56% -0.15
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% 0.123
Back Against the Wall 13 30.46 69.23% -0.168 -0.1203 0.195
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 30.0 0.0% -0.538
Disintegrating Ecosystem 5 27.8 80.0% 0.19
Downward Spiral 13 28.54 69.23% -0.178
Erosion of Will 9 23.56 55.56% 0.352
Intensifying Exploitation 2 18.5 0.0% -0.161 0.0872 -0.158
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 44.22 66.67% 0.185 -0.3305 0.196
Memory Fades to Dust 14 25.36 50.0% -0.641
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 36.22 77.78% 0.03
Promising Farmlands 4 19.0 25.0% -0.499
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 13.5 0.0% -0.137
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 44.67 100.0% 0.045
The Border of Life and Death 2 29.5 50.0% -0.161 -0.6778 -0.024
Thriving Communities 8 34.38 50.0% 0.362
Unnatural Proliferation 13 30.15 69.23% -0.235
Untended Land Crumbles 15 26.53 53.33%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 465 23.46% 38.98 78.92% -0.329 0.5329 0.081
B 375 25.89% 28.17 73.6% -0.377 0.4399 -0.559
C 477 20.09% 38.4 79.04% -0.003 0.676 0.368
D 432 21.65% 37.64 79.63% -0.051 0.7537 -0.315
E 261 25.87% 33.4 80.08% 0.505 1.1738 -0.177
F 233 26.84% 32.15 77.25% 0.241 1.0392 0.112
G 186 38.17% 32.08 75.81% 0.006 0.8318 -0.081
H 248 22.98% 44.78 78.23% 0.02 0.7927 0.548

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 20.56 77.78%
Not Using Events or Tokens 48 11.36% 26.48 47.92% -0.595
Skip Initial Invader Actions 33 14.29% 44.42 87.88%
Start of Game Growth 76 11.27% 42.38 93.42% 0.552
Unlimited Undo 30 20.0% 33.87 80.0% -0.37 -0.3261 0.089
Using Tokens but Not Events 85 13.75% 26.61 85.88% 0.439 0.3811 0.379

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 92 15.74 9.78%
II 249 30.48 80.72%
III 231 34.79 93.51%
IV 131 38.41 98.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 214
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 194
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 126
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 41
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 60
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)