Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 39.33 -2.773 83.33% -0.359 0.0622
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 28.57% 43.86 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 33.33% 39.75 1.99 75.0% 0.026 1.1558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 35.43 5.759 57.14% 0.189 1.5018
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 54.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 22.41 33.33% 0.051 2.0678
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 51.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 26 38.46% 29.35 2.482 76.92% 0.098 -0.0521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 19 42.11% 37.0 84.21%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 40.0% 43.45 3.842 90.0% 0.032 0.1337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 47 38.3% 47.21 5.494 78.72% 0.085 0.3884
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 25.0% 57.65 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 67.5% 48.95 8.912 55.0% 0.09 1.5791
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 11.11% 28.11 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 22.22% 37.89 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 33.33% 35.33 -2.562 50.0% 0.047 1.1531
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 45.45% 41.0 11.949 63.64% 0.124 1.7054
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 72.22% 31.74 6.028 26.32% 0.159 1.6194
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 33.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 26 52.0% 52.88 5.833 57.69% -0.779 1.6423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 13 53.85% 27.31 -0.392 46.15% 0.071 0.7703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 25.33 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 42.22 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19 31.58% 43.05 47.37%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 40.0% 43.53 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 34.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 60.53% 47.74 6.644 39.47% -0.283 1.9156
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 33.75 -3.524 75.0% -0.467 -0.6387
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 75.0% 33.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 7.557 75.0% 0.226 1.2796
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 0.0% 66.0 2.078 66.67% -0.744 0.5535
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 65.0 10.748 100.0% -0.174 1.5253
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 50.0% 27.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 66.67% 35.17 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 33.33% 35.8 -1.288 86.67% 0.088 0.3548
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 32.5% 46.98 95.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 15 46.67% 50.6 93.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 69.57% 50.65 78.26%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 70 30.0% 54.64 81.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 63.64% 34.55 72.73%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 66.67% 39.78 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 45.38 93.75%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 38.46% 58.92 92.31%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 42.43 -0.763 28.57% -0.378 1.6327

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 40.0% 35.71 71.43% -0.157 0.3297 -0.27
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.231
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0% 0.199 0.6554
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 6.25% 46.82 87.88% 0.179 0.2985 0.874
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 100.0% 0.308
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.225 0.1205 -0.545
Second Wave 0 145 25.0% 30.37 91.72% 0.163 0.6742 -0.525
The Great River 3 374 59.79% 34.65 66.31% -0.751 0.9586 -0.854
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73% -0.359 0.3618

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 37.35 60.47% 0.293 2.242 -0.12
Aid From Lesser Spirits 32 34.47 62.5% -0.369 1.4248 -0.58
All Things Weaken 26 39.31 69.23% 0.318 2.4021 0.307
Back Against the Wall 33 29.64 42.42% 0.117 1.9984 -0.981
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 35.85 72.73% -0.378 1.6939 -0.666
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% -0.428 1.4525 -0.816
Erosion of Will 32 33.13 59.38% -0.285 1.8036 -0.554
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 39.45 85.0% 0.023 0.6307 0.571
Memory Fades to Dust 43 30.84 55.81% -0.213
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33 35.55 72.73% -0.382 1.5378 -0.391
Promising Farmlands 30 32.5 73.33% -0.424 1.6164 0.672
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.097 0.5364 0.468
Thriving Communities 33 34.36 63.64% 0.125 2.2 0.047
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.303 2.2591 -0.298
Untended Land Crumbles 19 35.68 47.37% 0.094 2.1029 -0.771

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 648 38.07% 39.25 82.72% -0.556 0.2617 0.02
B 524 43.48% 33.79 73.85% 0.92 1.6813 -0.325
C 658 37.3% 40.41 81.76% 0.15 0.7034 0.284
D 461 39.07% 36.03 78.74% 0.012 0.7788 -0.081
E 325 43.44% 37.18 77.85% -0.075 0.5515 0.046
F 365 48.34% 35.36 71.78% -0.439 0.2828 -0.48
G 282 47.1% 35.93 74.82% -0.639 0.0431 0.251
H 279 34.8% 42.5 83.87% 0.641 1.3216 0.303

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27 0.0% 21.04 70.37% 0.103 2.3157
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 28.89% 25.27 82.14% 0.208 0.4091 -0.706
Skip Initial Invader Actions 37 7.69% 41.14 91.89% -0.352 -1.5958 -0.162
Start of Game Growth 57 19.57% 41.25 92.98% -0.196 -0.5742 -0.02
Unlimited Undo 124 37.84% 40.1 88.71% 0.115 -0.3613 0.454
Using Tokens but Not Events 128 25.89% 35.11 85.16% 0.36 0.5328 0.896

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 101 22.69 19.8%
II 456 31.12 70.83%
III 448 34.69 91.52%
IV 199 37.96 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 400
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 315
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 198
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 61
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 74
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 105
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-04 02:28:59 (Pacific Time)