Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 13.0 33.33% -0.618 -0.8799
Blitz 0 10 25.0% 36.0 70.0% 0.283 0.647 -0.229
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 66.13 100.0% 0.467
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.661
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 44 6.98% 38.82 70.45% -0.494 -0.9549 1.19
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 66.67% 23.78 44.44%
Rituals of Terror 3 6 40.0% 58.5 83.33% 0.468
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.494
Second Wave 0 270 20.07% 27.72 88.52% 0.942 0.9917 -0.299
The Great River 3 763 47.38% 28.16 53.47% -0.854 0.4378 -0.92
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 33.33 66.67%
Ward the Shores 2 13 38.46% 30.46 69.23% -0.555 0.4036

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 64 33.36 53.13% -0.379 -0.2024 0.368
Aid From Lesser Spirits 52 35.9 69.23% -1.052
All Things Weaken 43 30.28 48.84% -1.225 -0.9961 -0.021
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0% 0.534
Back Against the Wall 48 34.58 54.17% 0.446 0.4243 0.165
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 32.5 64.29% 0.803
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 42.17 66.67% -0.609
Disintegrating Ecosystem 44 36.8 72.73% -0.284 0.0752 0.327
Downward Spiral 74 31.69 50.0% 0.957 1.0405 -0.114
Erosion of Will 51 33.41 54.9% 0.024 0.2779 -0.832
Intensifying Exploitation 3 45.33 100.0% -0.743 -0.4866 -0.98
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 0.439 0.0362 1.294
Memory Fades to Dust 65 28.86 52.31% 0.121 0.4005 -0.034
Power Corrodes the Spirit 40 31.05 67.5% 0.055 0.3267 -0.16
Promising Farmlands 49 34.45 67.35% 0.2 0.4927 1.46
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 21.22 22.22% -0.186 -0.0517 -0.009
Slow Dissolution of Will 12 35.58 50.0% 0.084 0.4454 -0.663
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 35.27 73.33% 0.192 -0.3671 0.533
Thriving Communities 54 33.44 59.26% 0.813 1.1312 0.362
Thriving Crops 6 32.5 83.33% 0.391 0.2681
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 41 36.46 70.73% 0.578 0.6681 0.857
Untended Land Crumbles 40 30.82 47.5% -0.826 -0.5579 -0.063

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1099 34.77% 33.54 71.34% -0.524 0.625 -0.261
B 977 39.18% 28.84 63.15% -0.379 0.689 -0.088
C 1192 34.65% 33.2 68.12% 0.583 1.5015 0.197
D 764 35.25% 30.67 69.76% -0.059 1.0037 -0.374
E 639 40.03% 31.73 68.08% -0.337 0.6167 0.163
F 700 42.53% 30.2 63.71% 0.19 1.1922 -0.08
G 478 43.74% 31.34 66.32% 0.6 1.5684 0.254
H 454 34.9% 35.37 71.59% -0.056 0.902 0.17

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 42 0.0% 16.79 57.14% 0.113
Not Using Events or Tokens 108 25.58% 19.14 59.26% -0.169 0.1529 -0.907
Skip Initial Invader Actions 55 9.76% 38.78 80.0% -0.037 -0.6786 -0.36
Start of Game Growth 83 17.65% 37.41 80.72% -0.312 -0.8906 0.033
Unlimited Undo 185 38.32% 35.57 76.22% -0.014 -0.226 0.75
Using Tokens but Not Events 247 24.67% 27.78 74.9% 0.409 0.3263 0.82

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 410 12.75 6.1%
II 652 30.01 65.64%
III 766 34.87 91.12%
IV 321 38.76 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 686
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 418
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 319
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 291
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 75
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 121
Win: Scenario condition 20
Lose: Blight pool ran out 171
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)