Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 33.33% 38.63 75.0% 0.064 0.2386 -0.224
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.27
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 34 6.06% 46.26 88.24% 0.164 -0.4579 1.006
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.328
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.586
Second Wave 0 147 24.66% 30.3 91.84% 0.514 0.5808 -0.404
The Great River 3 416 57.35% 33.08 62.5% -2.479 -1.1282 -1.013
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 45 36.33 57.78% -0.72 -0.4232 -0.264
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 35.73 63.64% -0.034 0.0672 -0.261
All Things Weaken 29 36.48 62.07% -0.472 0.0248 0.245
Attenuated Essence 1 68.0 100.0% 0.316 0.6455 0.301
Back Against the Wall 33 29.64 42.42% 0.177 0.4058 -0.746
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 53.0 100.0% 0.402 0.9293 0.395
Disintegrating Ecosystem 34 34.79 70.59% -0.243 0.3407 -0.547
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% -0.781
Erosion of Will 33 33.15 60.61% 0.191 0.6838 -0.469
Intensifying Exploitation 1 45.0 100.0% 0.422 0.8921
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 40.62 85.71% 0.093 -0.3767 0.785
Memory Fades to Dust 45 31.6 57.78% 0.708 1.2188 -0.243
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33 35.55 72.73% -0.653 -0.3092 -0.519
Promising Farmlands 31 33.71 74.19% 0.311 0.9487 0.92
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.375 -0.3122 0.574
Thriving Communities 33 34.36 63.64% 0.099
Thriving Crops 1 15.0 0.0% -0.214 -0.0007
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.294 0.6471 -0.004
Untended Land Crumbles 22 32.59 40.91% -0.694 -0.2916 -0.778

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 680 37.65% 38.71 81.18% 0.176 1.0325 -0.003
B 559 42.96% 32.97 71.91% -0.032 0.748 -0.199
C 689 36.92% 39.54 79.68% -0.686 -0.0307 0.136
D 482 37.97% 35.23 77.18% 0.099 0.9068 -0.156
E 354 43.27% 36.17 75.42% 0.208 0.843 0.201
F 387 47.4% 34.89 70.54% 0.293 1.0169 -0.356
G 300 46.76% 34.86 72.33% -0.515 0.2361 0.045
H 291 33.8% 41.31 81.44% 0.492 1.1576 0.351

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28 0.0% 20.29 67.86% 0.204 1.1352
Not Using Events or Tokens 60 26.53% 24.4 80.0% -0.221 0.0902 -0.695
Skip Initial Invader Actions 39 7.41% 40.18 89.74% 0.252 -0.2719 -0.23
Start of Game Growth 59 19.15% 40.61 91.53% 0.252 -0.1017 -0.033
Unlimited Undo 130 37.93% 38.98 86.15% -0.203 -0.2364 0.337
Using Tokens but Not Events 146 27.13% 33.2 79.45% 0.581 0.5177 0.987

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 133 21.2 15.04%
II 469 31.05 70.36%
III 466 34.73 91.85%
IV 203 38.01 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 322
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 202
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 22
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 64
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 86
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 106
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-26 03:47:51 (Pacific Time)