Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 4 50.0% 39.0 1.775 100.0% 0.532 0.8213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 44.2 5.69 100.0% 0.69 1.104
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.9 5.297 90.0% 0.311 1.1944
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 41.2 3.388 80.0% 0.005 1.2475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 52.5 9.976 100.0% 0.292 1.7889
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 -0.712 33.33% -0.91 1.0287
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 47.0 7.293 50.0% -0.169 1.8739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 25.0% 27.94 -4.224 75.0% -0.372 -0.3309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 53.85% 36.62 1.077 84.62% 0.27 0.252
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 41.18% 42.88 3.598 88.24% 0.394 0.408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39 28.21% 50.28 5.358 87.18% -0.173 0.1106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 46 21.74% 57.33 8.904 100.0% 1.485 1.8441
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 13.442 100.0% 0.842 1.6667
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 19 63.16% 49.53 6.951 57.89% -1.087 0.1522
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 0.0% 28.14 -2.819 100.0% 0.451 0.7808
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 28.57% 39.0 2.747 100.0% 0.772 1.2888
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 50.0% 28.5 -2.434 25.0% -0.918 0.0554
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 33.33% 36.89 1.185 55.56% -1.05 0.5296
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 76.47% 30.44 -0.744 22.22% -1.657 -0.162
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 36.33 0.43 33.33% -0.928 1.1427
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 47.37% 58.35 10.113 70.0% -1.152 1.0916
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 70.0% 28.0 -3.46 50.0% -0.785 -0.2731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 7 57.14% 23.0 -5.622 42.86% -0.958 -0.0555
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7 28.57% 43.86 3.47 71.43% -0.509 1.6325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 13 15.38% 50.54 5.867 69.23% -1.105 1.0939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 33.33% 45.0 2.419 50.0% -1.848 0.3129
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 40.33 1.559 33.33% -0.935 0.8821
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 35 60.0% 49.09 5.795 42.86% -1.93 0.161
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 50.0% 26.75 -4.1 87.5% 0.367 0.4558
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 62.5% 31.88 -1.774 75.0% -0.143 -0.108
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 30.77% 36.08 0.027 84.62% 0.289 0.5267
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38 31.58% 47.79 4.252 97.37% 0.912 1.2027
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 54.33 5.067 100.0% 0.44 1.2215
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 19 63.16% 47.42 3.106 73.68% -0.672 0.4966
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 65 27.69% 54.97 6.177 81.54% -0.65 0.4721
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 55.56% 35.33 -0.28 77.78% 0.169 0.0799
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 28.6 -1.909 60.0% -0.184 0.5952
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 71.43% 45.79 5.729 100.0% 1.408 1.82
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 9.602 80.0% 0.268 1.5118
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 33.33% 59.33 10.146 91.67% 0.389 1.4969
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 8.6 62.5% -0.847 1.137
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 44.0 2.811 33.33% -1.58 0.2917

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3 66.67% 37.0 -0.542 66.67% -0.207 0.3589
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 37.5% 54.13 7.473 75.0% 0.119 0.5196
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 3.355 100.0% 0.29 0.564
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 -3.054 100.0% 0.403 0.9058
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 39 7.89% 49.59 4.355 84.62% -0.074 0.291
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -5.56 50.0% -0.85 -0.4033
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 29.971 100.0% 0.836 1.4809
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 4.002 50.0% 0.093 0.7393
Second Wave 0 57 42.11% 36.19 -1.229 80.7% -0.264 0.1655
The Great River 3 248 59.68% 34.47 -1.531 65.32% -1.344 0.129
Ward the Shores 2 8 14.29% 32.38 -1.336 87.5% -0.179 0.8531

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 26 38.5 -0.567 61.54% -0.898 1.1717
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 33.38 -1.856 58.33% -0.565 1.348
All Things Weaken 17 37.06 -0.147 70.59% -0.338 1.8212
Back Against the Wall 25 30.56 -3.587 40.0% -1.329 0.7576
Disintegrating Ecosystem 24 35.25 -1.669 79.17% 0.055 2.2767
Downward Spiral 37 37.68 -1.677 62.16% -1.211 0.8107
Erosion of Will 23 32.96 -2.696 52.17% -1.128 1.0797
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 44.08 2.548 100.0% 0.921 1.5993
Memory Fades to Dust 30 30.57 -3.249 50.0% -1.431 0.7838
Power Corrodes the Spirit 22 36.36 -0.473 68.18% -0.29 1.7306
Promising Farmlands 19 36.79 -1.191 78.95% -0.007 2.2012
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 46.44 2.32 88.89% 0.469 0.8802
Thriving Communities 19 34.47 -2.017 57.89% -0.88 1.2079
Tipping Point 9 39.22 0.919 77.78% 0.291 2.5158
Unnatural Proliferation 17 38.76 -0.479 70.59% -0.659 1.4214
Untended Land Crumbles 13 34.77 -4.24 46.15% -1.608 0.4943

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 473 37.53% 41.18 0.654 82.45% 0.277 -0.4108
B 364 40.91% 34.75 -2.827 71.43% -0.712 -1.4955
C 492 33.06% 42.76 1.91 82.52% 0.37 -0.643
D 336 39.27% 38.29 -0.808 79.46% 0.002 -0.775
E 203 46.77% 40.59 0.663 79.31% 0.102 -0.7926
F 240 48.32% 37.18 -0.91 72.08% -0.272 -1.1132
G 199 47.94% 38.11 -0.311 74.87% 0.024 -0.8083
H 219 33.64% 45.18 1.99 84.93% 0.239 -0.5999

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 17 0.0% 19.71 -6.98 58.82% -1.664 0.3892
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 29.03% 25.86 -4.347 86.11% 0.556 0.7709
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 5.56% 43.55 1.577 95.45% 0.272 -0.4144
Start of Game Growth 38 14.71% 43.95 1.74 94.74% 0.586 0.1171
Unlimited Undo 91 35.71% 42.62 0.764 89.01% 0.708 0.2853
Using Tokens but Not Events 84 27.78% 38.24 -1.07 83.33% 0.39 0.3396

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 75 22.37 22.67%
II 369 30.88 74.25%
III 274 34.39 90.88%
IV 124 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 225
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 252
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 124
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 40
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 52
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 78
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)