Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 37.5 0.225 100.0% 0.253 0.5362
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 44.2 5.376 100.0% 0.734 1.1288
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 43.89 4.883 88.89% 0.273 1.1338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 41.2 2.941 80.0% -0.014 1.236
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 52.5 9.252 100.0% 0.307 1.8409
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 -0.908 33.33% -0.86 1.2077
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 25.0 -2.089 0.0% -0.335 1.7424
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12 25.0% 30.25 -3.587 75.0% -0.35 -0.3067
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 50.0% 38.0 0.396 100.0% 0.382 0.3566
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 50.0% 41.14 3.176 85.71% 0.363 0.3626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 33 21.21% 51.15 5.05 90.91% 0.015 0.3077
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 42 16.67% 57.24 8.199 100.0% 1.247 1.6171
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 12.897 100.0% 0.849 1.6872
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 14 64.29% 52.29 7.289 64.29% -0.816 0.4329
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 28.0 -2.631 100.0% 0.513 0.8439
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 20.0% 37.4 1.649 100.0% 0.571 1.0607
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 50.0% 28.5 -2.835 25.0% -0.82 0.1444
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 25.0% 35.63 0.108 50.0% -1.033 0.5473
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 81.25% 28.59 -1.706 17.65% -1.628 -0.1137
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 36.33 0.349 33.33% -0.918 1.1529
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16 46.67% 54.94 8.968 68.75% -0.961 1.2967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 9 66.67% 28.22 -3.832 55.56% -0.643 -0.1174
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 23.2 -5.306 40.0% -0.654 0.234
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 20.0% 46.8 5.098 80.0% -0.064 2.0632
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 10.0% 49.2 4.283 70.0% -1.054 1.1304
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 33.33% 45.0 2.214 50.0% -1.737 0.4137
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 40.33 1.23 33.33% -0.83 0.9961
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 32 62.5% 48.38 5.457 40.63% -1.899 0.2288
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7 42.86% 25.14 -4.713 85.71% 0.34 0.4278
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 62.5% 31.88 -2.104 75.0% -0.181 -0.1703
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 25.0% 35.67 -0.97 83.33% 0.035 0.2541
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38 31.58% 47.79 3.743 97.37% 0.874 1.1574
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 27.27% 53.27 3.794 100.0% 0.41 1.1808
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 56.25% 50.81 3.877 81.25% -0.481 0.6866
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 58 22.41% 57.17 6.115 86.21% -0.447 0.6843
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 33.33% 34.33 -2.179 66.67% -0.334 -0.4563
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 28.6 -2.177 60.0% -0.155 0.5601
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 75.0% 44.17 4.823 100.0% 1.413 1.8511
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 9.435 80.0% 0.264 1.5235
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 57.67 11.258 83.33% 0.202 1.3425
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 100.0% 43.75 4.115 25.0% -1.062 0.9983
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 45.33 4.003 33.33% -0.807 1.1289

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 100.0% 45.0 1.64 50.0% -0.494 0.0828
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 42.86% 52.57 6.923 71.43% -0.007 0.3939
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 28.0 -2.611 100.0% 0.056 0.4375
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 38 8.11% 49.61 4.508 84.21% 0.005 0.3711
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -5.779 50.0% -0.885 -0.4435
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 86.0 24.344 100.0% 0.533 1.1616
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 45.0 9.233 100.0% 0.329 0.9785
Second Wave 0 54 44.44% 36.76 -1.057 79.63% -0.216 0.2005
The Great River 3 176 57.95% 35.67 -1.03 64.77% -1.303 0.1681
Ward the Shores 2 5 25.0% 32.4 -1.837 80.0% -0.223 0.8138

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 21 37.62 -1.41 61.9% -0.788 1.2822
Aid From Lesser Spirits 19 33.0 -1.898 63.16% -0.223 1.6957
All Things Weaken 10 36.3 -1.052 60.0% -0.559 1.5954
Back Against the Wall 16 32.31 -2.985 37.5% -1.045 1.0507
Disintegrating Ecosystem 21 37.19 -1.295 80.95% 0.112 2.3356
Downward Spiral 32 35.56 -2.71 59.38% -1.28 0.7363
Erosion of Will 18 32.56 -2.846 44.44% -1.199 1.0109
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 48.0 3.386 100.0% 0.638 1.3429
Memory Fades to Dust 21 31.43 -2.778 52.38% -1.091 1.1237
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 36.69 -0.771 62.5% -0.444 1.5763
Promising Farmlands 13 33.92 -2.737 76.92% 0.033 2.2459
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 50.0 3.65 87.5% 0.458 0.8931
Thriving Communities 13 38.15 -0.911 61.54% -0.646 1.4521
Tipping Point 9 39.22 1.177 77.78% 0.344 2.5623
Unnatural Proliferation 11 34.91 -1.987 63.64% -0.714 1.3634
Untended Land Crumbles 10 37.7 -3.364 50.0% -1.239 0.8593

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 385 34.13% 43.03 1.269 83.12% 0.313 -0.7771
B 292 39.86% 35.02 -2.988 71.23% -0.74 -1.9249
C 409 30.75% 43.36 1.652 83.13% 0.33 -1.0853
D 272 35.45% 38.88 -0.942 80.15% 0.18 -0.9975
E 142 47.86% 41.87 0.776 78.17% -0.021 -1.2983
F 190 47.34% 37.97 -0.739 73.68% -0.107 -1.3497
G 156 44.37% 39.22 -0.322 73.08% -0.124 -1.3544
H 176 31.03% 45.74 1.727 85.8% 0.2 -1.0402

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 20.93 -6.505 60.0% -1.327 0.7171
Not Using Events or Tokens 26 31.82% 26.23 -3.972 84.62% 0.53 0.7486
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 6.25% 43.65 1.579 95.0% 0.331 -0.3735
Start of Game Growth 35 16.13% 43.57 1.546 94.29% 0.744 0.29
Unlimited Undo 73 29.85% 42.86 0.118 87.67% 0.25 -0.1621
Using Tokens but Not Events 69 27.59% 37.65 -1.734 82.61% 0.298 0.2508

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 63 22.34 26.98%
II 311 30.75 75.88%
III 208 34.26 90.87%
IV 92 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 165
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 218
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 92
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 39
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 56
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)