Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 39.33 0.161 83.33% -0.352 0.1754
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 28.57% 43.86 3.907 100.0% 0.139 0.5026
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 33.33% 39.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 35.43 4.596 57.14% 0.055 1.4752
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 54.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 51.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 25 36.0% 29.08 -2.854 76.0% 0.1 0.0913
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 19 42.11% 37.0 -3.646 84.21% -0.204 -0.4648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 40.0% 43.45 -2.186 90.0% 0.029 0.2164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 46 36.96% 47.13 78.26%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 25.0% 57.65 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 11.846 100.0% 0.119 1.2648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 67.5% 48.95 12.549 55.0% 0.114 1.5554
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 11.11% 28.11 -11.481 100.0% 0.029 0.5694
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 22.22% 37.89 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 33.33% 35.33 9.114 50.0% 0.086 1.2103
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 40.0% 38.3 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 72.22% 31.74 26.32%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 33.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 26 52.0% 52.88 2.408 57.69% -0.693 1.8741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 58.33% 27.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 25.33 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 42.22 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19 31.58% 43.05 9.876 47.37% 0.076 2.1755
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 40.0% 43.53 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 34.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 60.53% 47.74 9.815 39.47% 0.078 2.2636
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 3 0.0% 38.67 2.121 100.0% 0.107 0.1169
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 75.0% 33.25 -4.38 100.0% 0.051 0.9718
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 -2.315 75.0% -0.362 0.6917
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 0.0% 66.0 -2.012 66.67% -0.784 0.4627
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 65.0 11.241 100.0% 0.214 1.7168
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 10 50.0% 27.4 -4.629 80.0% -0.44 -0.2819
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 66.67% 35.17 9.001 83.33% 0.107 0.2765
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 33.33% 35.8 86.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 32.5% 46.98 -5.06 95.0% -0.54 -0.0668
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 15 46.67% 50.6 93.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 69.57% 50.65 8.999 78.26% 0.071 1.054
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 70 30.0% 54.64 6.27 81.43% 0.098 1.223
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 63.64% 34.55 72.73%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 66.67% 39.78 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 45.38 93.75%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 9.876 80.0% 0.076 1.3284
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 38.46% 58.92 92.31%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 42.43 14.707 28.57% 0.193 2.1534

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 6 40.0% 36.33 66.67% -0.296 0.1191 -0.317
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.216
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 6.25% 46.82 87.88% 0.732
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 100.0% 0.345
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.416
Second Wave 0 134 25.56% 30.84 91.79% 0.526 1.1827 -0.594
The Great River 3 370 59.62% 34.66 66.49% -0.467 1.1419 -0.957
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73% -0.892 -0.0109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 37.35 60.47% -0.264 1.7208 -0.23
Aid From Lesser Spirits 30 34.93 63.33% 0.035 1.7973 -0.582
All Things Weaken 24 37.63 66.67% 0.048 2.0667 0.341
Back Against the Wall 33 29.64 42.42% 0.078 2.009 -0.997
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 35.85 72.73% -0.256
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% -0.485 1.5169 -0.639
Erosion of Will 32 33.13 59.38% -0.407 1.6735 -0.228
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 39.45 85.0% 0.037 0.5126 0.558
Memory Fades to Dust 43 30.84 55.81% 0.071 2.2293 -0.238
Power Corrodes the Spirit 31 37.06 74.19% 0.217 2.1938 -0.426
Promising Farmlands 30 32.5 73.33% -0.277 1.7738 0.638
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.213 0.7292 0.43
Thriving Communities 33 34.36 63.64% 0.1 2.1411 0.004
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.029 1.9785 -0.294
Untended Land Crumbles 19 35.68 47.37% 0.158 2.1978 -0.834

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 637 38.52% 39.41 82.57% -0.355 0.3807 0.21
B 511 44.13% 33.95 73.19% 0.218 0.9141 -0.466
C 649 36.93% 40.57 81.82% 0.463 0.9369 0.377
D 449 39.14% 36.28 78.62% -0.461 0.2689 -0.282
E 319 43.63% 37.52 78.06% 0.084 0.6236 -0.052
F 358 48.73% 35.51 71.51% 0.524 1.2064 -0.361
G 277 47.6% 36.09 74.73% -0.268 0.3907 0.382
H 272 35.21% 42.85 83.46% -0.192 0.4993 0.208

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 20.16 68.0% 0.087 2.3404
Not Using Events or Tokens 52 30.95% 25.1 80.77% 0.034 0.2387 -0.776
Skip Initial Invader Actions 34 4.0% 40.88 91.18% -0.596 -1.4986 -0.178
Start of Game Growth 54 17.78% 41.09 92.59% -0.309 -0.7768 -0.03
Unlimited Undo 121 37.27% 40.0 88.43% 0.329 -0.2635 0.359
Using Tokens but Not Events 123 26.85% 35.5 84.55% 0.25 0.395 0.94

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 98 22.64 19.39%
II 450 31.07 70.67%
III 436 34.65 91.28%
IV 194 37.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 388
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 310
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 193
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 61
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 73
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 103
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-16 03:17:35 (Pacific Time)