Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 41.6 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 42.5 0.216 100.0% 0.095 0.9723
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 33.33% 39.75 -8.117 75.0% -0.657 0.4627
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 6 50.0% 38.67 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 54.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 51.5 6.915 66.67% 0.017 2.278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 24 33.33% 29.29 3.775 75.0% 0.051 0.2948
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 17 41.18% 37.94 -2.745 88.24% 0.078 -0.0484
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 19 42.11% 43.58 89.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 46 36.96% 47.13 78.26%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 25.0% 57.65 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 38 65.79% 50.39 9.432 57.89% -0.175 1.4005
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 11.11% 28.11 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 22.22% 37.89 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 40.0% 30.8 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 40.0% 38.3 5.532 60.0% 0.026 1.7693
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 72.22% 31.74 26.32%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 33.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 50.0% 55.7 13.1 65.22% 0.196 2.4946
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 58.33% 27.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 25.33 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8 25.0% 41.38 12.586 62.5% 0.082 2.4844
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 17 23.53% 44.88 52.94%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 40.0% 43.53 19.018 46.67% 0.069 2.5446
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 34.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 37 59.46% 48.16 16.573 40.54% 0.106 2.4736
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 35.0 2.457 100.0% 0.032 -0.0921
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 66.67% 34.33 -0.104 100.0% 0.122 0.9665
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 41.0 4.777 100.0% 0.08 0.9087
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 65.0 16.914 100.0% 0.137 1.8357
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 55.56% 28.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 66.67% 35.17 -1.723 83.33% 0.081 -0.1421
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 33.33% 35.8 86.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 32.5% 46.98 6.511 95.0% 0.039 0.3483
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14 42.86% 50.86 92.86%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 22 68.18% 50.09 9.552 77.27% 0.051 1.0323
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 69 28.99% 54.7 7.742 81.16% 0.031 1.2228
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 63.64% 34.55 72.73%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 66.67% 39.78 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 45.38 5.272 93.75% 0.092 0.8026
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 38.46% 58.92 2.412 92.31% 0.048 1.4328
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 42.43 28.57%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0% 0.025 -0.1775
Blitz 0 5 50.0% 35.6 80.0% 0.049 0.3063 -0.258
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.16
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 6.25% 46.82 87.88% -0.729 -0.4233 0.798
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 100.0% 0.391
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.375
Second Wave 0 114 27.19% 31.58 90.35% 0.52 1.0853 -0.607
The Great River 3 348 60.81% 34.41 65.8% -0.446 0.9521 -0.814
Ward the Shores 2 9 22.22% 32.78 77.78% 0.128 1.2897

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 37 38.27 59.46% 0.347 2.2498 -0.087
Aid From Lesser Spirits 28 34.36 60.71% 0.031 1.7608 -0.54
All Things Weaken 23 37.96 65.22% 0.199 2.1849 0.372
Back Against the Wall 31 29.74 41.94% -0.567 1.2495 -0.786
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 35.85 72.73% -0.235
Downward Spiral 48 36.31 58.33% -1.05 0.9432 -0.568
Erosion of Will 30 33.23 60.0% 0.044 2.1267 -0.201
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 39.72 88.89% 0.016 0.4573 0.814
Memory Fades to Dust 41 30.32 53.66% -0.274 1.8097 -0.643
Power Corrodes the Spirit 30 37.17 73.33% 0.197 2.1353 -0.37
Promising Farmlands 29 32.48 72.41% 0.199 2.2446 0.64
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.017 0.4422 0.183
Thriving Communities 30 35.0 63.33% 0.141 2.1247 0.394
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 27 35.22 66.67% 0.062 2.0261 -0.429
Untended Land Crumbles 16 37.94 50.0% -0.666

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 599 38.23% 39.87 83.14% 0.114 0.911 0.393
B 482 43.9% 34.08 72.41% 0.024 0.7677 -0.426
C 617 36.11% 41.1 81.52% -0.124 0.4448 0.439
D 423 39.81% 36.5 78.96% -0.323 0.4726 -0.359
E 298 44.03% 37.92 78.19% -0.147 0.5003 -0.2
F 335 49.4% 35.64 70.75% -0.221 0.5029 -0.507
G 262 48.05% 36.34 75.19% 0.065 0.7964 0.306
H 258 35.18% 43.27 83.72% 0.629 1.3414 0.374

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 20.17 65.22% 0.134 2.263
Not Using Events or Tokens 51 30.95% 25.31 80.39% 0.085 0.2597 -0.668
Skip Initial Invader Actions 29 4.76% 39.24 96.55% 0.134 -0.0086
Start of Game Growth 48 20.0% 40.42 95.83% 0.247 -0.5139 0.056
Unlimited Undo 117 37.38% 40.37 88.89% -0.492 -1.0964 0.35
Using Tokens but Not Events 118 25.96% 35.98 83.9% 0.02 -0.1369 1.006

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 94 22.56 20.21%
II 435 30.98 71.26%
III 399 34.53 91.23%
IV 179 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 355
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 302
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 178
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 56
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 69
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 99
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)