Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 37.5 0.334 100.0% 0.259 0.5366
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 44.2 5.635 100.0% 0.679 1.0731
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 43.89 4.93 88.89% 0.191 1.0692
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 41.2 3.15 80.0% -0.016 1.235
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 52.5 9.728 100.0% 0.319 1.8405
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 -0.73 33.33% -0.905 1.0721
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 47.0 7.247 50.0% -0.239 1.8108
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 28.57% 28.07 -4.515 71.43% -0.521 -0.4808
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 54.55% 35.27 0.391 81.82% 0.194 0.1651
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 41.18% 42.88 3.542 88.24% 0.356 0.3603
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 37 27.03% 49.65 4.78 86.49% -0.253 0.0356
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 44 18.18% 57.23 8.571 100.0% 1.365 1.7322
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 13.176 100.0% 0.926 1.7558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 56.25% 51.5 7.569 62.5% -0.896 0.3453
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 0.0% 28.14 -2.928 100.0% 0.495 0.8272
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 28.57% 39.0 2.882 100.0% 0.791 1.2954
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 50.0% 28.5 -2.782 25.0% -0.867 0.1012
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 33.33% 36.89 1.042 55.56% -0.99 0.5886
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 81.25% 28.59 -1.487 17.65% -1.68 -0.1823
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 36.33 0.595 33.33% -0.886 1.1803
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16 46.67% 54.94 9.122 68.75% -1.037 1.2182
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 9 66.67% 28.22 -4.013 55.56% -0.743 -0.2286
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 6 66.67% 21.67 -6.015 33.33% -1.029 -0.1335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 47.67 5.572 83.33% -0.023 2.1145
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 9.09% 47.27 3.886 63.64% -1.192 0.9936
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 33.33% 45.0 2.313 50.0% -1.833 0.3136
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 40.33 1.238 33.33% -0.907 0.9134
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 35 60.0% 49.09 5.899 42.86% -1.955 0.1522
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 50.0% 26.75 -4.293 87.5% 0.363 0.4476
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 62.5% 31.88 -1.82 75.0% -0.111 -0.0896
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 30.77% 36.08 -0.182 84.62% 0.264 0.4954
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38 31.58% 47.79 4.003 97.37% 0.884 1.1704
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 54.33 4.628 100.0% 0.396 1.1726
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 56.25% 50.81 4.047 81.25% -0.534 0.6228
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 59 23.73% 56.59 6.052 84.75% -0.57 0.5613
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8 50.0% 34.88 -1.292 75.0% -0.122 -0.2283
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 28.6 -1.868 60.0% -0.129 0.6142
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 75.0% 44.17 4.947 100.0% 1.338 1.7691
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 9.573 80.0% 0.238 1.4868
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 33.33% 59.33 9.729 91.67% 0.273 1.3997
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 8.281 62.5% -0.894 1.1247
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 44.0 2.39 33.33% -1.641 0.2641

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 100.0% 45.0 1.509 50.0% -0.583 -0.0101
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 37.5% 54.13 7.386 75.0% 0.079 0.4792
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 3.996 100.0% 0.316 0.5981
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 34.67 -1.656 100.0% 0.24 0.6798
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 38 8.11% 49.61 4.511 84.21% -0.026 0.3395
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -6.015 50.0% -0.945 -0.504
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 86.0 23.421 100.0% 0.475 1.1187
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 45.0 9.4 100.0% 0.379 1.021
Second Wave 0 57 42.11% 36.19 -1.152 80.7% -0.184 0.244
The Great River 3 214 60.28% 35.04 -1.312 65.42% -1.378 0.0811
Ward the Shores 2 8 14.29% 32.38 -1.441 87.5% -0.118 0.9194

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 24 38.33 -0.846 62.5% -0.79 1.2838
Aid From Lesser Spirits 22 34.23 -1.577 63.64% -0.373 1.5465
All Things Weaken 13 35.62 -0.765 61.54% -0.545 1.6136
Back Against the Wall 20 30.3 -3.855 35.0% -1.309 0.785
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 36.05 -1.439 81.82% 0.283 2.5078
Downward Spiral 34 34.71 -3.006 58.82% -1.364 0.657
Erosion of Will 21 32.48 -2.726 52.38% -1.149 1.06
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 10 47.4 3.178 100.0% 0.826 1.5184
Memory Fades to Dust 26 32.62 -2.309 57.69% -1.041 1.1779
Power Corrodes the Spirit 19 37.84 -0.431 68.42% -0.356 1.665
Promising Farmlands 17 36.88 -1.254 82.35% 0.263 2.477
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 46.44 2.223 88.89% 0.389 0.7999
Thriving Communities 17 36.35 -1.24 58.82% -0.709 1.384
Tipping Point 9 39.22 1.155 77.78% 0.356 2.5815
Unnatural Proliferation 15 35.2 -2.048 66.67% -0.789 1.3005
Untended Land Crumbles 10 37.7 -3.28 50.0% -1.249 0.8563

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 429 36.36% 42.1 0.95 82.75% 0.277 -0.8357
B 325 39.81% 34.96 -2.83 71.69% -0.746 -1.954
C 458 32.14% 42.95 1.613 83.19% 0.388 -1.0515
D 303 37.58% 38.4 -0.892 79.87% 0.067 -1.135
E 176 47.13% 41.36 0.594 78.41% -0.04 -1.3521
F 214 48.11% 37.38 -0.991 72.9% -0.222 -1.4876
G 179 47.7% 38.77 -0.116 74.3% -0.003 -1.2602
H 208 31.07% 45.77 2.016 86.54% 0.31 -0.9554

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 16 0.0% 19.94 -6.928 56.25% -1.621 0.4335
Not Using Events or Tokens 29 32.0% 27.03 -3.557 86.21% 0.61 0.8274
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 5.56% 43.55 1.662 95.45% 0.361 -0.3326
Start of Game Growth 37 15.15% 43.51 1.606 94.59% 0.67 0.2065
Unlimited Undo 86 35.44% 41.65 0.25 88.37% 0.578 0.1575
Using Tokens but Not Events 82 27.14% 37.34 -1.493 82.93% 0.363 0.3108

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 70 22.34 24.29%
II 345 30.81 75.36%
III 240 34.31 91.67%
IV 109 37.5 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 196
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 238
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 109
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 46
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 66
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)