Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 37.5 0.097 100.0% 0.248 0.5285
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 4 25.0% 42.75 3.908 100.0% 0.54 0.9133
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 43.89 4.786 88.89% 0.363 1.2104
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 41.2 2.685 80.0% -0.018 1.2199
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 52.5 9.276 100.0% 0.301 1.8233
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 -1.222 33.33% -0.887 1.1407
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 25.0 -1.788 0.0% -0.308 1.7841
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12 25.0% 30.25 -3.744 75.0% -0.318 -0.2712
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 50.0% 38.0 0.302 100.0% 0.414 0.3852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 12 58.33% 40.33 3.354 83.33% 0.385 0.3821
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 33 21.21% 51.15 4.827 90.91% -0.003 0.2818
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 42 16.67% 57.24 8.054 100.0% 1.276 1.6543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 12.635 100.0% 0.822 1.6558
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 69.23% 51.0 6.408 61.54% -0.809 0.4402
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 0.0% 28.0 -2.679 100.0% 0.529 0.8612
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 20.0% 37.4 1.545 100.0% 0.578 1.0613
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 50.0% 28.5 -2.953 25.0% -0.781 0.1759
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 25.0% 35.63 -0.137 50.0% -1.04 0.5376
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 81.25% 28.59 -2.047 17.65% -1.6 -0.0782
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 36.33 0.047 33.33% -0.883 1.1805
The Kingdom of England 6 11 15 42.86% 54.27 8.614 66.67% -0.963 1.2928
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 75.0% 29.25 -3.532 62.5% -0.269 0.2557
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 23.2 -5.556 40.0% -0.637 0.2546
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 20.0% 46.8 4.869 80.0% -0.041 2.0874
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 10 10.0% 49.2 4.063 70.0% -1.012 1.1742
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 33.33% 45.0 1.957 50.0% -1.668 0.4774
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 40.33 0.973 33.33% -0.843 0.975
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 32 62.5% 48.38 5.401 40.63% -1.773 0.3619
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7 42.86% 25.14 -4.902 85.71% 0.323 0.408
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 71.43% 30.29 -2.837 71.43% -0.252 -0.2424
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 18.18% 34.55 -1.764 81.82% -0.056 0.1609
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 36 27.78% 48.33 3.507 100.0% 1.082 1.3668
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 11 27.27% 53.27 3.527 100.0% 0.442 1.2197
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 56.25% 50.81 3.592 81.25% -0.414 0.7515
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 58 22.41% 57.17 5.805 86.21% -0.394 0.7382
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3 33.33% 34.33 -2.336 66.67% -0.356 -0.4728
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 28.6 -2.235 60.0% -0.166 0.5221
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 75.0% 44.17 4.695 100.0% 1.471 1.9068
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 52.25 6.897 75.0% -0.147 1.1278
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 50.0% 57.67 11.065 83.33% 0.218 1.3754
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 4 100.0% 43.75 3.571 25.0% -1.144 0.8919
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 45.33 4.065 33.33% -0.737 1.2128

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 100.0% 45.0 1.794 50.0% -0.533 0.0395
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 50.0% 54.0 7.148 66.67% -0.033 0.3676
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 37 8.33% 49.62 4.445 83.78% 0.064 0.4394
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -5.876 50.0% -0.837 -0.3903
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 86.0 24.61 100.0% 0.537 1.1592
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 45.0 9.09 100.0% 0.286 0.9098
Second Wave 0 54 44.44% 36.76 -1.018 79.63% -0.069 0.3501
The Great River 3 159 57.86% 35.9 -1.087 64.78% -1.085 0.4001
Ward the Shores 2 5 25.0% 32.4 -1.82 80.0% -0.223 0.8075

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 20 36.15 -2.129 60.0% -0.882 1.1863
Aid From Lesser Spirits 18 33.72 -1.673 66.67% -0.042 1.875
All Things Weaken 10 36.3 -1.358 60.0% -0.604 1.5559
Back Against the Wall 15 33.67 -2.369 40.0% -0.803 1.2892
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 36.84 -2.022 78.95% -0.071 2.1504
Downward Spiral 32 35.56 -2.692 59.38% -1.278 0.736
Erosion of Will 17 33.53 -2.426 47.06% -0.971 1.2407
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 7 48.0 3.292 100.0% 0.607 1.3188
Memory Fades to Dust 19 31.0 -3.071 52.63% -1.11 1.106
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 37.27 -0.646 60.0% -0.529 1.4913
Promising Farmlands 13 33.92 -2.952 76.92% 0.016 2.231
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 47.83 2.335 83.33% 0.233 0.6504
Thriving Communities 13 38.15 -1.057 61.54% -0.689 1.418
Tipping Point 9 39.22 1.233 77.78% 0.433 2.649
Unnatural Proliferation 10 36.4 -1.308 60.0% -0.763 1.3172
Untended Land Crumbles 10 37.7 -3.534 50.0% -1.291 0.8044

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 371 34.63% 43.45 1.385 83.02% 0.351 -0.7219
B 273 40.08% 35.21 -2.957 70.33% -0.763 -1.9272
C 392 30.55% 43.74 1.549 83.16% 0.295 -1.1021
D 261 36.58% 39.0 -1.008 79.31% 0.132 -1.0266
E 133 48.85% 42.41 0.862 78.95% 0.072 -1.1852
F 173 46.78% 38.59 -0.57 73.99% -0.049 -1.275
G 149 43.75% 39.03 -0.601 71.81% -0.259 -1.4713
H 168 30.72% 46.36 1.755 86.31% 0.249 -0.972

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 20.93 -6.561 60.0% -1.357 0.6819
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 33.33% 26.48 -3.891 88.0% 0.886 1.106
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 7.14% 45.17 1.98 94.44% 0.292 -0.4137
Start of Game Growth 33 17.24% 44.39 1.68 93.94% 0.663 0.2042
Unlimited Undo 72 28.79% 42.56 -0.15 87.5% 0.243 -0.1596
Using Tokens but Not Events 65 27.78% 37.42 -1.953 83.08% 0.457 0.411

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 61 22.34 24.59%
II 296 30.71 76.01%
III 196 34.23 91.33%
IV 87 37.48 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 156
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 207
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 87
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 35
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 54
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)