Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 40.33 2.212 100.0% 0.428 0.7119
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 40.0% 44.2 5.581 100.0% 0.654 1.065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 30.0% 43.9 5.115 90.0% 0.227 1.104
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 40.0% 41.2 3.268 80.0% -0.014 1.232
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 0.0% 52.5 9.984 100.0% 0.305 1.8065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 -0.851 33.33% -0.97 0.983
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 47.0 6.955 50.0% -0.233 1.8094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 28.57% 28.07 -4.541 71.43% -0.568 -0.5261
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 53.85% 36.62 1.013 84.62% 0.264 0.2455
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 41.18% 42.88 3.445 88.24% 0.32 0.3333
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39 28.21% 50.28 5.308 87.18% -0.192 0.0956
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 46 21.74% 57.33 8.819 100.0% 1.451 1.8175
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 13.363 100.0% 0.855 1.6818
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 18 61.11% 50.72 7.281 61.11% -1.036 0.2023
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 0.0% 28.14 -2.793 100.0% 0.492 0.8238
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 28.57% 39.0 2.658 100.0% 0.752 1.2656
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 50.0% 28.5 -2.508 25.0% -0.912 0.0555
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 33.33% 36.89 1.163 55.56% -1.037 0.5421
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 81.25% 28.59 -1.618 17.65% -1.753 -0.2545
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 66.67% 36.33 0.399 33.33% -0.917 1.1566
The Kingdom of England 6 11 19 44.44% 57.47 9.754 68.42% -1.184 1.0635
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 70.0% 28.0 -3.687 50.0% -0.846 -0.3321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 7 57.14% 23.0 -5.884 42.86% -1.052 -0.1526
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7 28.57% 43.86 3.42 71.43% -0.504 1.6391
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 12 8.33% 48.33 4.509 66.67% -1.19 1.0058
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 12 33.33% 45.0 2.38 50.0% -1.839 0.3192
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 40.33 1.376 33.33% -0.949 0.8681
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 35 60.0% 49.09 5.701 42.86% -1.957 0.1399
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 50.0% 26.75 -4.285 87.5% 0.338 0.4229
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 62.5% 31.88 -1.868 75.0% -0.154 -0.1207
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 30.77% 36.08 -0.155 84.62% 0.227 0.4621
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 38 31.58% 47.79 4.11 97.37% 0.848 1.1345
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 33.33% 54.33 4.909 100.0% 0.415 1.1986
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 16 56.25% 50.81 4.077 81.25% -0.559 0.6074
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 63 25.4% 56.13 6.413 84.13% -0.572 0.5522
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8 50.0% 34.88 -1.323 75.0% -0.129 -0.2309
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 40.0% 28.6 -2.023 60.0% -0.179 0.5996
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 14 71.43% 45.79 5.708 100.0% 1.36 1.7796
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 9.331 80.0% 0.194 1.4478
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 33.33% 59.33 9.927 91.67% 0.296 1.4126
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 8.456 62.5% -0.89 1.1094
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 100.0% 44.0 2.515 33.33% -1.676 0.2026

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 3 66.67% 37.0 -0.425 66.67% -0.184 0.3855
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 37.5% 54.13 7.434 75.0% 0.112 0.5102
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 3.191 100.0% 0.283 0.5521
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 -3.136 100.0% 0.382 0.8468
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 39 7.89% 49.59 4.377 84.62% -0.045 0.3214
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -5.65 50.0% -0.871 -0.4258
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 30.016 100.0% 0.85 1.4953
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 3.698 50.0% 0.063 0.7087
Second Wave 0 57 42.11% 36.19 -1.254 80.7% -0.236 0.1926
The Great River 3 232 59.05% 35.22 -1.241 66.81% -1.369 0.0941
Ward the Shores 2 8 14.29% 32.38 -1.39 87.5% -0.158 0.8763

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 25 39.48 -0.337 64.0% -0.794 1.2796
Aid From Lesser Spirits 22 34.23 -1.571 63.64% -0.419 1.4994
All Things Weaken 15 34.47 -1.682 66.67% -0.559 1.6116
Back Against the Wall 22 30.68 -3.654 36.36% -1.443 0.6479
Disintegrating Ecosystem 23 36.48 -1.167 82.61% 0.29 2.5148
Downward Spiral 37 37.68 -1.824 62.16% -1.235 0.7883
Erosion of Will 22 33.36 -2.554 54.55% -1.134 1.075
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 44.08 2.436 100.0% 0.938 1.6241
Memory Fades to Dust 28 31.61 -2.663 53.57% -1.249 0.9692
Power Corrodes the Spirit 21 36.24 -0.922 66.67% -0.461 1.5627
Promising Farmlands 18 37.94 -0.787 83.33% 0.253 2.4673
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 46.44 2.18 88.89% 0.416 0.8261
Thriving Communities 18 35.61 -1.562 61.11% -0.722 1.3731
Tipping Point 9 39.22 1.013 77.78% 0.34 2.5664
Unnatural Proliferation 16 36.5 -1.476 68.75% -0.778 1.3089
Untended Land Crumbles 12 36.75 -3.509 50.0% -1.451 0.6549

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 458 36.77% 41.6 0.72 83.19% 0.29 -0.4705
B 348 39.88% 35.07 -2.789 72.41% -0.71 -1.5674
C 478 32.12% 42.98 1.77 83.05% 0.319 -0.77
D 325 38.44% 38.48 -0.839 80.0% 0.007 -0.8429
E 196 46.91% 40.97 0.667 79.59% 0.106 -0.8589
F 232 47.39% 37.47 -0.894 73.28% -0.267 -1.1814
G 193 47.34% 38.59 -0.248 75.65% -0.009 -0.9147
H 215 32.86% 45.47 1.968 86.05% 0.294 -0.6201

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 17 0.0% 19.71 -6.99 58.82% -1.598 0.458
Not Using Events or Tokens 33 32.14% 25.85 -4.295 84.85% 0.514 0.7295
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 5.56% 43.55 1.507 95.45% 0.276 -0.4112
Start of Game Growth 38 14.71% 43.95 1.739 94.74% 0.605 0.1352
Unlimited Undo 91 35.71% 42.62 0.73 89.01% 0.7 0.2796
Using Tokens but Not Events 84 27.78% 38.24 -1.163 83.33% 0.357 0.305

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 72 22.35 23.61%
II 359 30.84 75.21%
III 265 34.35 91.7%
IV 119 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 219
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 248
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 119
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 40
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 48
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 70
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)