Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.272
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 66.71 100.0% 0.057 -0.1542 -0.111
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0% 0.286 1.1301
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.44 0.6311 -0.547
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 38 8.11% 42.11 78.95% -0.006 -0.7307 0.951
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 66.67% 18.83 33.33% -0.52 0.3861
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.404
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.514
Second Wave 0 202 22.89% 28.5 89.6% 1.34 1.4209 -0.123
The Great River 3 535 52.81% 31.0 59.25% -0.974 0.4138 -0.901
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 55 34.51 56.36% 0.305
Aid From Lesser Spirits 45 34.87 66.67% 1.14 1.0805 -0.408
All Things Weaken 33 35.82 57.58% -0.44 -0.0852 0.172
Attenuated Essence 1 68.0 100.0% 0.466
Back Against the Wall 36 29.03 41.67% 0.126 0.2017 -0.215
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 25.75 50.0% -0.29 -0.0788 0.479
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 31.67 33.33% -1.055
Disintegrating Ecosystem 37 37.43 72.97% -0.133
Downward Spiral 60 31.33 48.33% -1.237 -1.0399 -0.933
Erosion of Will 39 30.64 51.28% -0.942 -0.6746 -0.632
Intensifying Exploitation 1 45.0 100.0% -0.463
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 0.06 -0.4514 1.128
Memory Fades to Dust 58 29.12 55.17% -0.05 0.2615 -0.075
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 33.16 72.97% -0.254 0.0404 -0.21
Promising Farmlands 36 36.36 77.78% 0.261 0.5971 0.89
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 3.0 0.0% -0.143 -0.0338 -0.132
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 30.75 25.0% -0.738
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 42.33 83.33% -0.184 -0.7975 0.545
Thriving Communities 39 36.54 64.1% 0.17 0.5024 0.251
Thriving Crops 4 24.75 75.0% 0.08 -0.0071
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 33 35.76 66.67% 0.257 0.4044 0.145
Untended Land Crumbles 29 30.62 48.28% -0.473

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 837 36.93% 35.71 76.34% -0.334 0.5713 -0.176
B 710 42.27% 30.86 67.75% -0.168 0.6599 -0.023
C 877 37.09% 35.97 73.66% 0.118 0.7977 -0.076
D 605 36.64% 32.79 74.21% 0.345 1.198 -0.213
E 470 42.03% 33.76 72.98% 0.076 0.7772 0.413
F 497 44.74% 32.23 67.61% 0.314 1.0955 -0.222
G 376 46.07% 32.23 68.88% -0.29 0.4815 0.027
H 352 33.04% 38.01 75.57% -0.041 0.7276 0.25

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 34 0.0% 18.53 64.71% 0.249 1.0796 0.09
Not Using Events or Tokens 82 28.36% 21.54 69.51% -0.787 -0.3462 -0.394
Skip Initial Invader Actions 48 11.43% 39.44 83.33% -0.208 -0.7706 -0.233
Start of Game Growth 75 19.67% 38.2 84.0% 0.402 -0.1367 0.177
Unlimited Undo 153 36.03% 37.06 82.35% 0.324 0.3649 0.815
Using Tokens but Not Events 178 27.04% 30.97 78.09% 0.981 0.9574 1.081

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 235 16.23 9.79%
II 538 30.54 68.59%
III 580 34.77 90.86%
IV 254 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 23
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 517
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 359
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 253
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 121
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 70
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 91
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 138
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)