Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 100.0% 45.0 1.258 50.0% -0.53 0.0509
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 42.86% 52.57 7.034 71.43% 0.045 0.4487
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 51.5 7.119 100.0% 0.19 0.5401
Elemental Invocation 1 2 50.0% 40.0 0.703 100.0% 0.16 0.5319
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 38 8.11% 49.61 4.506 84.21% -0.025 0.3396
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 -5.848 50.0% -0.918 -0.4768
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 86.0 23.795 100.0% 0.532 1.1661
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1 100.0% 45.0 9.149 100.0% 0.36 1.0007
Second Wave 0 56 42.86% 36.41 -1.133 80.36% -0.236 0.1879
The Great River 3 192 59.9% 35.31 -1.137 65.63% -1.341 0.08
Ward the Shores 2 6 20.0% 32.17 -1.195 83.33% -0.149 0.892

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 22 37.36 -1.377 63.64% -0.728 1.3429
Aid From Lesser Spirits 20 34.65 -1.359 65.0% -0.233 1.6889
All Things Weaken 11 35.0 -1.748 54.55% -0.765 1.3885
Back Against the Wall 17 33.0 -2.628 41.18% -0.962 1.1347
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 36.05 -1.578 81.82% 0.149 2.3749
Downward Spiral 32 35.56 -2.72 59.38% -1.347 0.672
Erosion of Will 21 32.48 -2.676 52.38% -1.106 1.1041
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 44.67 2.198 100.0% 0.787 1.4804
Memory Fades to Dust 23 33.0 -2.146 56.52% -1.072 1.1431
Power Corrodes the Spirit 18 36.78 -0.673 66.67% -0.361 1.6558
Promising Farmlands 14 34.21 -2.382 78.57% 0.111 2.3241
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 50.0 3.613 87.5% 0.46 0.8907
Thriving Communities 16 37.19 -0.909 62.5% -0.606 1.4901
Tipping Point 9 39.22 1.195 77.78% 0.358 2.5791
Unnatural Proliferation 11 34.91 -2.237 63.64% -0.738 1.3479
Untended Land Crumbles 10 37.7 -3.266 50.0% -1.21 0.8862

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 403 35.37% 42.95 1.378 83.37% 0.36 -0.7412
B 302 40.21% 34.75 -3.156 71.52% -0.81 -2.0066
C 426 31.65% 43.31 1.682 83.57% 0.35 -1.0785
D 285 36.3% 38.55 -1.029 80.35% 0.131 -1.0604
E 157 46.45% 41.25 0.492 78.34% -0.099 -1.3975
F 197 48.72% 37.76 -0.776 74.11% -0.121 -1.3752
G 164 46.54% 39.27 -0.085 73.78% -0.098 -1.3399
H 190 30.85% 45.76 1.856 86.84% 0.318 -0.9391

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 20.93 -6.561 60.0% -1.35 0.6986
Not Using Events or Tokens 27 34.78% 27.0 -3.598 85.19% 0.543 0.7637
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 6.25% 43.65 1.66 95.0% 0.305 -0.3995
Start of Game Growth 35 16.13% 43.57 1.582 94.29% 0.735 0.2829
Unlimited Undo 77 33.8% 42.45 0.186 88.31% 0.356 -0.0607
Using Tokens but Not Events 71 26.67% 37.45 -1.659 83.1% 0.3 0.2493

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 63 22.33 26.98%
II 327 30.75 75.84%
III 219 34.25 91.32%
IV 99 37.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 12
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 176
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 229
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 99
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 1
Lose: Scenario condition 41
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)