Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 13.0 33.33% 0.174
Blitz 0 10 25.0% 36.0 70.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 11 0.0% 48.09 72.73% -0.525
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 7 57.14% 33.86 71.43%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 45 6.82% 38.16 68.89% 0.446
Powers Long Forgotten 1 12 75.0% 20.83 33.33%
Rituals of Terror 3 6 40.0% 58.5 83.33%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 286 20.0% 27.54 87.76% 0.367 0.4734
The Great River 3 831 46.26% 28.0 52.83% -0.812 0.3625 -0.357
Varied Terrains 2 7 71.43% 47.86 85.71% 0.433
Ward the Shores 2 16 50.0% 25.88 56.25%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 68 33.19 52.94% 0.29 0.6009 0.407
Aid From Lesser Spirits 54 36.13 70.37% 0.344 0.3567 0.243
All Things Weaken 51 28.92 41.18% -0.867 -0.393 -0.734
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 50 35.6 56.0% 0.591
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 17 28.88 52.94% 0.562
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 36.36 63.64% 0.009
Disintegrating Ecosystem 48 35.42 68.75% 0.184 0.5644 0.066
Downward Spiral 76 31.09 50.0% 1.039
Erosion of Will 52 33.42 53.85% 0.051
Intensifying Exploitation 6 34.0 66.67% -0.856
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 28 33.89 85.71% 0.106
Memory Fades to Dust 66 28.42 51.52% -0.101 0.2287 0.384
Power Corrodes the Spirit 42 31.76 69.05% 0.175 0.4422 0.096
Promising Farmlands 49 34.45 67.35% 0.191 0.6385 0.576
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 22.18 27.27% -0.317
Slow Dissolution of Will 13 36.69 53.85% 0.25 0.6613 0.132
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 34.89 77.78%
Thriving Communities 56 33.16 58.93% 0.091
Thriving Crops 9 26.33 66.67% -0.688
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 48 39.42 72.92% 0.964
Untended Land Crumbles 45 33.22 48.89% 0.178 0.4769 0.449

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1185 34.98% 32.74 69.11% -0.299 0.6924 -0.386
B 1059 38.78% 28.29 61.85% 0.447 1.3117 -0.2
C 1276 34.32% 32.59 66.14% -0.234 0.5175 0.055
D 832 35.01% 29.92 67.43% -0.023 0.9212 -0.419
E 692 39.82% 31.52 66.18% 0.26 1.015 0.306
F 752 42.91% 30.28 62.5% -0.009 0.8659 -0.178
G 516 44.77% 31.04 65.31% -0.0 0.8621 0.641
H 486 34.94% 34.66 70.16% -0.127 0.6799 0.166

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 44 0.0% 17.14 56.82% 0.068 0.7881
Not Using Events or Tokens 112 26.67% 18.62 58.04% -0.339 0.1352
Skip Initial Invader Actions 65 7.84% 36.78 72.31% -0.223 -1.0275 0.297
Start of Game Growth 97 15.0% 35.27 73.2% -0.053 -0.6201 -0.269
Unlimited Undo 202 35.16% 33.35 71.78% -0.422 -0.395 -0.025
Using Tokens but Not Events 271 25.7% 27.08 71.96% 0.32 0.2929 -0.705

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 475 12.25 5.26%
II 694 29.91 64.12%
III 808 34.94 91.21%
IV 339 38.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 725
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 435
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 337
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 353
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 83
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 124
Win: Scenario condition 20
Lose: Blight pool ran out 191
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)