Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 41.6 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 42.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 33.33% 39.75 75.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 35.43 -10.054 57.14% -0.532 0.9117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 54.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 51.5 4.802 66.67% 0.088 2.2826
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 24 33.33% 29.29 4.222 75.0% 0.091 0.3536
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 18 44.44% 37.83 -1.037 88.89% 0.098 -0.0838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 19 42.11% 43.58 89.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 46 36.96% 47.13 78.26%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 25.0% 57.65 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 67.5% 48.95 1.222 55.0% -0.876 0.6814
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 11.11% 28.11 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 22.22% 37.89 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 40.0% 30.8 0.399 40.0% 0.039 1.1038
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 40.0% 38.3 3.69 60.0% 0.038 1.7012
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 72.22% 31.74 8.424 26.32% 0.034 1.6463
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 33.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 52.17% 54.46 8.63 62.5% -0.158 2.2315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 58.33% 27.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 25.33 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 42.22 8.583 66.67% 0.211 2.4937
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 19 31.58% 43.05 -3.834 47.37% -1.077 1.2304
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 40.0% 43.53 17.3 46.67% 0.119 2.5487
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 34.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 38 60.53% 47.74 10.239 39.47% -0.267 2.0468
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 35.0 0.043 100.0% 0.064 -0.1286
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 66.67% 34.33 -0.043 100.0% 0.096 0.956
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 41.67 4.165 100.0% 0.134 1.0701
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 66.67% 65.0 14.844 100.0% 0.522 2.1553
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 55.56% 28.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 66.67% 35.17 -3.691 83.33% 0.152 0.1061
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 15 33.33% 35.8 86.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 32.5% 46.98 5.508 95.0% 0.134 0.3942
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 15 46.67% 50.6 3.117 93.33% 0.063 0.9312
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 22 68.18% 50.09 10.336 77.27% 0.11 0.9995
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 69 28.99% 54.7 5.437 81.16% 0.089 1.3225
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 63.64% 34.55 72.73%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 66.67% 39.78 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 45.38 6.358 93.75% 0.263 0.7843
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 38.46% 58.92 92.31%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 42.43 -9.7 28.57% -0.506 1.3966

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0% 0.059 0.152
Blitz 0 5 50.0% 35.6 80.0% 0.055 0.2989 -0.198
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.142
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 6.25% 46.82 87.88% 0.228 0.4019 0.785
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 2 100.0% 98.5 100.0% 0.394
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.393
Second Wave 0 124 26.61% 31.2 91.13% 0.636 1.0983 -0.55
The Great River 3 355 60.45% 34.34 65.92% -0.451 1.0153 -0.99
Ward the Shores 2 10 30.0% 33.1 80.0% 0.154 1.345

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 39 38.51 58.97% -0.342 1.4868 -0.215
Aid From Lesser Spirits 29 34.38 62.07% 0.135 1.7777 -0.535
All Things Weaken 23 37.96 65.22% 0.232 2.2101 0.389
Back Against the Wall 32 29.5 40.63% -0.75 1.1011 -0.876
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 35.85 72.73% 0.126 2.1052 -0.241
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% -0.828 1.0715 -0.664
Erosion of Will 32 33.13 59.38% -0.389 1.6918 -0.244
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 39.45 85.0% -0.515 0.024 0.586
Memory Fades to Dust 42 30.07 54.76% -0.209 1.7707 -0.492
Power Corrodes the Spirit 30 37.17 73.33% 0.322 2.2127 -0.467
Promising Farmlands 29 32.48 72.41% 0.059 2.0673 0.674
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.088 0.5327 0.222
Thriving Communities 32 34.69 62.5% -0.824 1.1475 0.028
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 27 35.22 66.67% 0.096 1.9883 -0.269
Untended Land Crumbles 18 36.28 44.44% -0.958 1.0656 -0.881

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 613 38.67% 39.69 82.71% -0.15 0.6244 0.259
B 488 44.19% 34.06 72.54% 0.01 0.7125 -0.474
C 632 36.69% 40.85 81.33% -0.211 0.354 0.41
D 430 39.86% 36.5 78.84% -0.117 0.6484 -0.381
E 310 43.93% 37.67 77.74% -0.103 0.503 -0.03
F 347 49.13% 35.55 70.89% 0.262 0.9685 -0.275
G 268 48.09% 36.24 74.63% 0.306 1.0359 0.222
H 263 36.05% 43.05 83.27% 0.019 0.6931 0.287

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 20.17 65.22% 0.055 2.0721
Not Using Events or Tokens 51 30.95% 25.31 80.39% -0.79
Skip Initial Invader Actions 29 4.76% 39.24 96.55% 0.055 -0.0562
Start of Game Growth 48 20.0% 40.42 95.83% 0.055 -0.6458 0.068
Unlimited Undo 118 37.96% 40.33 88.98% -0.378 -1.0723 0.367
Using Tokens but Not Events 119 26.67% 35.85 84.03% 0.162 0.1049 0.983

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 97 22.6 19.59%
II 440 31.02 70.91%
III 415 34.58 91.08%
IV 183 37.82 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 368
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 304
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 182
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 70
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 103
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-15 02:27:40 (Pacific Time)