Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.489 -0.2918 -0.281
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 0.0% 61.83 100.0% 0.379 -0.0632 -0.135
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.124 0.9364
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 34 6.06% 46.26 88.24% 0.201 -0.4439 1.065
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.321
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.527
Second Wave 0 155 24.03% 29.83 91.61% 0.596 0.6619 -0.275
The Great River 3 437 56.19% 32.29 61.33% -2.025 -0.8078 -0.83
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 47 35.26 55.32% -0.696 -0.454 0.015
Aid From Lesser Spirits 36 34.14 63.89% 0.036 -0.0414 -0.486
All Things Weaken 29 36.48 62.07% -0.475 -0.0822 0.288
Attenuated Essence 1 68.0 100.0% 0.41 0.5163 0.336
Back Against the Wall 34 30.29 44.12% 0.517 0.5749 -0.655
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 53.0 100.0% 0.176 0.3777 0.375
Disintegrating Ecosystem 36 36.58 72.22% -0.496 -0.0723 -0.875
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% 0.171 0.4067 -0.731
Erosion of Will 33 33.15 60.61% 0.171 0.4803 -0.344
Intensifying Exploitation 1 45.0 100.0% 0.137 0.4248
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 40.62 85.71% 0.702 0.2082 1.037
Memory Fades to Dust 49 31.02 57.14% 0.576 0.9126 -0.132
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33 35.55 72.73% -0.337
Promising Farmlands 31 33.71 74.19% 0.156 0.6096 0.922
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.68
Thriving Communities 35 33.66 60.0% -0.434 -0.0716 -0.165
Thriving Crops 3 18.33 66.67% 0.017 -0.1804
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.083 0.2979 0.054
Untended Land Crumbles 23 31.17 39.13% -0.842 -0.5601 -0.724

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 702 37.52% 38.12 80.48% 0.446 1.1862 -0.079
B 576 42.63% 32.74 71.7% 0.141 0.8671 -0.07
C 724 37.07% 38.75 78.59% 0.218 0.8002 0.251
D 506 38.03% 34.85 76.68% -0.337 0.3748 -0.394
E 371 42.74% 35.89 76.01% 0.69 1.2552 0.275
F 408 46.67% 33.82 68.87% -0.55 0.1203 -0.569
G 317 45.81% 33.9 70.35% -0.595 0.0571 0.141
H 296 33.56% 40.9 81.08% 0.011 0.5819 0.455

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29 0.0% 20.38 68.97%
Not Using Events or Tokens 64 24.53% 24.72 79.69% -0.426 -0.0471 -0.562
Skip Initial Invader Actions 39 7.41% 40.18 89.74% 0.092 -0.5255 -0.1
Start of Game Growth 60 19.15% 40.32 91.67% 0.092 -0.2564 0.119
Unlimited Undo 131 37.93% 38.86 86.26% 0.122 0.1152 0.471
Using Tokens but Not Events 151 26.32% 32.85 80.13% 0.695 0.6843 1.056

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 149 20.4 13.42%
II 481 31.01 70.48%
III 483 34.76 91.51%
IV 211 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 432
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 330
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 210
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 39
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 64
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 87
Win: Scenario condition 17
Lose: Blight pool ran out 110
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)