Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 19.5 50.0%
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.253
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 66.71 100.0% 0.327
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.592
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 42 7.32% 40.67 73.81% 0.111 -0.442 1.08
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 66.67% 23.78 44.44%
Rituals of Terror 3 4 66.67% 57.25 75.0% 0.12 0.3128 0.469
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.433
Second Wave 0 255 20.47% 27.61 88.63% -0.161 -0.0434 -0.189
The Great River 3 700 48.5% 28.71 54.86% -1.538 -0.4701 -0.948
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 33.33 66.67% -0.25 0.4911
Ward the Shores 2 12 33.33% 31.67 75.0% 0.096 1.1793

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 63 33.89 53.97% 0.311
Aid From Lesser Spirits 50 35.34 70.0% 0.503 0.3849 -1.142
All Things Weaken 37 34.08 56.76% 0.157 0.494 0.006
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0% 0.021 0.0477 0.473
Back Against the Wall 46 33.26 52.17% -0.037 -0.0359 -0.067
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 30.08 61.54% 0.218 0.4354 0.662
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 42.17 66.67% -0.704
Disintegrating Ecosystem 42 37.52 73.81% 0.382 0.7756 0.292
Downward Spiral 69 29.48 46.38% -0.261 -0.1524 -0.617
Erosion of Will 47 32.23 53.19% -0.081 0.2714 -0.854
Intensifying Exploitation 3 45.33 100.0% -0.476
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 1.141
Memory Fades to Dust 64 29.03 53.13% -0.176 0.071 -0.276
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 32.29 71.05% -0.226
Promising Farmlands 45 35.47 71.11% -0.813 -0.5304 1.224
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 20.57 14.29% -0.52 -0.4426 0.272
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 32.45 45.45% 0.115 0.5121 -0.842
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 35.27 73.33% 0.096 -0.5997 0.456
Thriving Communities 50 33.5 62.0% -0.182 0.1744 0.287
Thriving Crops 5 32.6 80.0%
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 36 34.81 66.67% -0.312 -0.1497 0.642
Untended Land Crumbles 35 32.03 51.43% -0.171

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1021 34.98% 33.86 72.48% 0.186 1.1908 -0.263
B 908 40.09% 29.1 64.21% -0.382 0.5373 -0.049
C 1109 34.54% 33.39 69.34% -0.362 0.3727 -0.013
D 723 35.17% 30.99 70.95% 0.284 1.2624 -0.27
E 598 40.78% 32.43 69.9% -0.149 0.6709 0.252
F 652 42.59% 30.35 64.42% -0.07 0.8037 -0.039
G 449 44.12% 31.26 67.26% 0.156 0.9651 0.172
H 429 34.12% 35.91 73.19% 0.358 1.1724 0.194

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 42 0.0% 16.79 57.14% -0.591 0.1168 0.104
Not Using Events or Tokens 101 27.85% 19.02 59.41% -0.426 -0.0578 -0.876
Skip Initial Invader Actions 54 10.0% 39.5 81.48% -0.299 -0.8841 -0.403
Start of Game Growth 83 17.65% 37.41 80.72% -0.036 -0.5501 0.22
Unlimited Undo 176 37.34% 36.38 78.98% -0.394 -0.5037 0.892
Using Tokens but Not Events 233 24.41% 27.98 75.54% 1.259 1.2338 0.78

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 364 13.33 6.87%
II 622 30.1 66.4%
III 719 34.83 91.52%
IV 303 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 647
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 403
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 301
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 245
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 116
Win: Scenario condition 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 160
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)