Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 19.5 50.0%
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.186
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 66.71 100.0% 0.385
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.543
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 42 7.32% 40.67 73.81% 0.054 -0.5758 1.106
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 66.67% 23.78 44.44% -0.081 0.8277
Rituals of Terror 3 4 66.67% 57.25 75.0% 0.115 0.2268 0.45
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.367
Second Wave 0 250 20.88% 27.7 88.4% -0.867 -0.6586 -0.181
The Great River 3 683 49.27% 29.02 55.64% -1.488 -0.4383 -0.938
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 63 33.89 53.97% 0.244 0.36 0.389
Aid From Lesser Spirits 47 35.62 68.09% 0.291 0.1997 -1.077
All Things Weaken 37 34.08 56.76% 0.149 0.4112 0.064
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0% 0.04 0.0083 0.465
Back Against the Wall 46 33.26 52.17% -0.15 -0.1182 -0.038
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 30.92 58.33% 0.527
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 42.17 66.67% -0.635
Disintegrating Ecosystem 41 37.68 73.17% 0.524 0.7402 0.249
Downward Spiral 68 28.91 45.59% -0.694 -0.593 -0.706
Erosion of Will 47 32.23 53.19% 0.268 0.465 -0.816
Intensifying Exploitation 2 41.0 100.0% -0.49
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 1.179
Memory Fades to Dust 64 29.03 53.13% -0.166 0.0495 -0.226
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 32.29 71.05% -0.396 -0.194 -0.207
Promising Farmlands 44 35.84 72.73% -0.74 -0.5203 1.252
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 20.57 14.29% -0.779 -0.7691 0.217
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 32.45 45.45% 0.542 0.8157 -0.818
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 36.29 71.43% 0.053 -0.6467 0.469
Thriving Communities 49 34.18 63.27% 0.495 0.6927 0.333
Thriving Crops 5 32.6 80.0%
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 35 35.74 68.57% 0.384 0.5352 0.632
Untended Land Crumbles 35 32.03 51.43% -0.384 -0.1947 -0.084

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1003 34.97% 34.15 73.08% 0.013 0.9843 -0.323
B 884 40.75% 29.49 64.93% 0.272 1.1544 -0.033
C 1088 34.78% 33.66 69.85% -0.328 0.3669 0.014
D 709 35.29% 31.25 71.23% -0.512 0.404 -0.254
E 586 40.41% 32.6 70.14% 0.468 1.2282 0.226
F 632 43.4% 30.75 65.35% 0.063 0.9148 -0.098
G 439 44.21% 31.66 67.65% -0.141 0.6607 0.191
H 420 33.9% 36.08 73.1% 0.185 0.9935 0.261

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 37 0.0% 18.38 62.16% 0.109
Not Using Events or Tokens 94 28.57% 19.21 60.64% -0.657 -0.2644 -0.826
Skip Initial Invader Actions 52 10.26% 41.02 84.62% -0.279
Start of Game Growth 81 18.18% 38.33 82.72% 0.225 -0.2658 0.104
Unlimited Undo 173 38.06% 37.01 80.35% 0.319 0.2389 1.024
Using Tokens but Not Events 227 24.64% 28.09 74.89% 0.39 0.358 0.736

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 346 13.69 7.23%
II 611 30.18 66.61%
III 708 34.82 91.38%
IV 298 38.64 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 637
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 397
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 296
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 231
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 72
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 111
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 158
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-17 03:38:37 (Pacific Time)