Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 19.5 50.0%
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.176
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 66.71 100.0% 0.375
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.542
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 42 7.32% 40.67 73.81% 0.083 -0.5167 1.098
Powers Long Forgotten 1 9 66.67% 23.78 44.44% -0.104 0.7332
Rituals of Terror 3 4 66.67% 57.25 75.0% 0.094 0.1545 0.454
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.367
Second Wave 0 249 20.97% 27.72 88.35% -0.81 -0.5597 -0.202
The Great River 3 680 49.34% 29.11 55.88% -1.354 -0.2882 -0.916
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 63 33.89 53.97% 0.245 0.3173 0.386
Aid From Lesser Spirits 47 35.62 68.09% 0.29 0.219 -1.084
All Things Weaken 37 34.08 56.76% 0.128 0.3872 0.059
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0% 0.091 0.0546 0.463
Back Against the Wall 46 33.26 52.17% -0.191 -0.1368 -0.044
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 30.92 58.33% 0.531
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 42.17 66.67% -0.631
Disintegrating Ecosystem 41 37.68 73.17% 0.458 0.6458 0.238
Downward Spiral 68 28.91 45.59% -0.387 -0.3125 -0.708
Erosion of Will 47 32.23 53.19% 0.241 0.3961 -0.823
Intensifying Exploitation 2 41.0 100.0% -0.494
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 1.174
Memory Fades to Dust 63 29.27 53.97% 0.051 0.2539 -0.236
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 32.29 71.05% -0.351 -0.1762 -0.215
Promising Farmlands 43 36.67 74.42% -0.256 -0.0583 1.248
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 20.57 14.29% -0.673 -0.6707 0.214
Slow Dissolution of Will 11 32.45 45.45% 0.601 0.8995 -0.851
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 36.29 71.43% 0.091 -0.6061 0.466
Thriving Communities 49 34.18 63.27% 0.37 0.526 0.313
Thriving Crops 5 32.6 80.0% 0.111 -0.2012
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 35 35.74 68.57% 0.513 0.6215 0.624
Untended Land Crumbles 35 32.03 51.43% -0.247 -0.0653 -0.095

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1000 34.97% 34.19 73.1% -0.274 0.7017 -0.334
B 878 40.8% 29.6 65.15% 0.384 1.2736 -0.03
C 1082 34.79% 33.78 70.06% 0.036 0.7287 0.024
D 708 35.2% 31.29 71.33% -0.433 0.4618 -0.265
E 585 40.48% 32.61 70.09% 0.272 1.0016 0.232
F 631 43.47% 30.8 65.45% -0.325 0.5067 -0.084
G 438 44.32% 31.68 67.58% 0.058 0.8379 0.183
H 419 33.98% 36.13 73.27% 0.299 1.0816 0.257

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 37 0.0% 18.38 62.16% 0.111
Not Using Events or Tokens 94 28.57% 19.21 60.64% -0.716 -0.2955 -0.826
Skip Initial Invader Actions 52 10.26% 41.02 84.62% 0.217 -0.5518 -0.285
Start of Game Growth 81 18.18% 38.33 82.72% 0.323 -0.1146 0.097
Unlimited Undo 173 38.06% 37.01 80.35% 0.767 0.7012 1.014
Using Tokens but Not Events 226 24.27% 28.15 75.22% 0.37 0.3268 0.728

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 344 13.76 7.27%
II 610 30.19 66.72%
III 705 34.82 91.49%
IV 297 38.63 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 25
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 635
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 397
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 295
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 229
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 72
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 110
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 157
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)