Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 33.33% 38.63 75.0% 0.055 0.2074 -0.16
Dahan Insurrection 4 6 0.0% 61.83 100.0% 0.367 0.1271 -0.204
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 34 6.06% 46.26 88.24% 0.249 -0.366 0.989
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.329
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.601
Second Wave 0 153 24.34% 29.88 91.5% 0.277 0.3432 -0.265
The Great River 3 426 56.94% 32.62 61.74% -2.267 -0.9125 -0.904
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 47 35.26 55.32% -1.059 -0.8475 -0.255
Aid From Lesser Spirits 34 34.68 61.76% -0.009 -0.0415 -0.252
All Things Weaken 29 36.48 62.07% -0.418 -0.0059 0.219
Attenuated Essence 1 68.0 100.0% 0.329 0.4812 0.275
Back Against the Wall 33 29.64 42.42% 0.108 0.2159 -0.721
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 53.0 100.0% 0.412 0.7505 0.378
Disintegrating Ecosystem 36 36.58 72.22% -0.362 0.1092 -0.612
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% 0.28 0.5667 -0.811
Erosion of Will 33 33.15 60.61% 0.425 0.7733 -0.426
Intensifying Exploitation 1 45.0 100.0% 0.513 0.8589
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 40.62 85.71% 0.305 -0.2228 0.908
Memory Fades to Dust 46 30.91 56.52% 0.269 0.6858 -0.259
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33 35.55 72.73% -0.45 -0.1911 -0.518
Promising Farmlands 31 33.71 74.19% 0.364 0.8824 0.898
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.572
Thriving Communities 35 33.66 60.0% -0.63 -0.2293 -0.263
Thriving Crops 2 16.0 50.0% 0.002 -0.0262
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.12 0.3561 -0.014
Untended Land Crumbles 23 31.17 39.13% -0.836 -0.5348 -0.787

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 686 37.76% 38.51 80.9% 0.345 1.1952 0.07
B 567 42.88% 32.82 71.6% -0.09 0.7225 -0.148
C 708 37.21% 38.98 78.67% -0.586 0.0985 0.134
D 492 38.22% 35.2 76.83% 0.061 0.8859 -0.26
E 364 42.9% 36.05 75.82% 0.375 1.0232 0.211
F 399 46.97% 34.25 69.67% 0.041 0.7876 -0.479
G 308 46.84% 34.56 71.43% -0.557 0.2097 0.03
H 295 33.68% 41.04 81.36% 0.439 1.1193 0.462

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28 0.0% 20.29 67.86%
Not Using Events or Tokens 60 26.53% 24.4 80.0% -0.199 0.1306 -0.623
Skip Initial Invader Actions 39 7.41% 40.18 89.74% 0.056 -0.5296 -0.173
Start of Game Growth 59 19.15% 40.61 91.53% 0.056 -0.2146 0.017
Unlimited Undo 130 37.93% 38.98 86.15% -0.183 -0.1897 0.344
Using Tokens but Not Events 149 26.52% 32.97 79.87% 0.685 0.6156 1.051

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 140 20.82 14.29%
II 477 31.03 70.23%
III 473 34.74 91.54%
IV 207 38.03 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 423
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 326
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 206
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 30
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 64
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 86
Win: Scenario condition 17
Lose: Blight pool ran out 110
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)