Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 19.5 50.0% -0.545 -1.212
Blitz 0 9 28.57% 34.33 66.67% -0.19
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 0.0% 66.71 100.0% 0.379
Despicable Theft 2 8 37.5% 36.75 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 66.67% 32.67 66.67% -0.475
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 41 7.5% 41.66 75.61% 0.174 -0.4846 1.293
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 71.43% 25.29 42.86%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.459
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.394
Second Wave 0 236 21.28% 28.17 89.41% 0.405 0.5223 0.014
The Great River 3 650 49.61% 29.36 56.0% -1.276 0.0034 -0.881
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 50.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 62 33.52 53.23% -0.744 -0.6179 0.385
Aid From Lesser Spirits 46 35.26 67.39% -0.23 -0.3033 -1.138
All Things Weaken 37 34.08 56.76% -0.749 -0.5242 0.045
Attenuated Essence 7 55.43 100.0% 0.253 0.333 0.467
Back Against the Wall 41 31.9 48.78% -0.051
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 30.92 58.33% -0.35 -0.1649 0.562
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 42.17 66.67% 0.053 0.1722 -0.578
Disintegrating Ecosystem 40 37.52 72.5% 0.528 0.8542 0.234
Downward Spiral 66 29.79 46.97% 0.615 0.725 -0.739
Erosion of Will 42 29.86 50.0% -0.787
Intensifying Exploitation 2 41.0 100.0% -0.476
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 35.15 88.89% 1.157
Memory Fades to Dust 63 29.27 53.97% -0.166 0.0777 -0.287
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 33.16 72.97% -0.23
Promising Farmlands 42 37.55 76.19% 0.083 0.4577 1.472
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 27.0 33.33% 0.137 0.2748 0.192
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 30.5 40.0% -0.364 0.1824 -0.979
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 36.29 71.43% 0.474
Thriving Communities 45 33.69 60.0% -0.116 0.17 0.261
Thriving Crops 5 32.6 80.0% 0.106 -0.0925
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 34 35.91 67.65% 0.205 0.3692 0.518
Untended Land Crumbles 33 32.67 51.52% 0.169 0.4155 -0.112

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 972 35.48% 34.55 73.56% -0.203 0.7387 -0.381
B 834 41.04% 29.75 64.99% 0.071 0.93 -0.101
C 1044 34.81% 34.07 70.31% -0.169 0.5477 0.001
D 680 34.73% 31.4 71.76% -0.553 0.3177 -0.18
E 567 39.82% 32.65 70.37% 0.194 0.8786 0.283
F 600 43.89% 31.04 65.5% -0.532 0.248 -0.04
G 423 44.47% 32.04 68.09% 0.743 1.5422 0.191
H 400 32.57% 36.5 74.0% 0.467 1.2246 0.208

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 37 0.0% 18.38 62.16% 0.119
Not Using Events or Tokens 92 28.0% 19.63 61.96% -0.666 -0.1651 -0.582
Skip Initial Invader Actions 52 10.26% 41.02 84.62% 0.171 -0.3629 -0.246
Start of Game Growth 81 18.18% 38.33 82.72% 0.171 -0.3646 -0.073
Unlimited Undo 169 37.75% 36.8 79.88% 0.424 0.3607 1.019
Using Tokens but Not Events 216 25.0% 28.47 74.54% -0.178 -0.3236 0.707

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 323 14.35 7.43%
II 603 30.31 67.0%
III 672 34.84 91.67%
IV 281 38.6 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 606
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 394
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 280
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 208
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 72
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 110
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 150
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-17 03:03:23 (Pacific Time)