Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 39.33 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 7 28.57% 43.86 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 12 33.33% 39.75 2.59 75.0% 0.047 0.766
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 57.14% 35.43 5.346 57.14% 0.222 1.3315
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 54.67 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 32.0 24.105 33.33% 0.124 1.6136
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 6 83.33% 51.5 7.564 66.67% 0.063 2.0366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 27 37.04% 29.19 1.553 77.78% 0.37 0.3633
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 20 40.0% 37.8 8.097 85.0% 0.237 0.123
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 22 36.36% 41.55 -5.241 86.36% -0.216 -0.3095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 49 36.73% 45.29 -3.062 75.51% -0.626 -0.4053
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 48 25.0% 57.65 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 10 30.0% 66.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 67.5% 48.95 -3.147 55.0% -0.379 0.8627
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 11.11% 28.11 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 22.22% 37.89 88.89%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 33.33% 35.33 -2.151 50.0% 0.041 0.8803
The Kingdom of England 3 6 11 45.45% 41.0 13.33 63.64% 0.265 1.4763
The Kingdom of England 4 7 19 72.22% 31.74 5.448 26.32% 0.208 1.289
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 33.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 26 52.0% 52.88 4.213 57.69% -0.883 1.1274
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 13 53.85% 27.31 0.847 46.15% 0.086 0.5251
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 25.33 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 22.22% 42.22 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 21 28.57% 38.95 -14.343 42.86% -0.754 0.9555
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 40.0% 43.53 46.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 5 80.0% 34.4 20.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 39 61.54% 48.31 8.989 41.03% -0.181 1.4485
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 33.75 -3.551 75.0% -0.463 -0.7029
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 75.0% 33.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 4 25.0% 38.25 5.36 75.0% 0.189 0.7283
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 0.0% 66.0 4.899 66.67% -0.316 0.6098
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 75.0% 64.75 11.803 100.0% 0.187 1.5281
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 11 45.45% 24.91 -13.282 72.73% -0.331 -0.2455
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 12 66.67% 35.17 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 16 37.5% 36.38 -0.103 87.5% 0.326 0.4735
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 32.5% 46.98 95.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 15 46.67% 50.6 93.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 23 69.57% 50.65 78.26%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 70 30.0% 54.64 81.43%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 58.33% 33.17 -7.45 66.67% -0.425 -0.7114
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 66.67% 39.78 77.78%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 16 68.75% 45.38 93.75%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 55.2 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 38.46% 58.92 92.31%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 62.5% 57.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 100.0% 42.43 -1.508 28.57% -0.292 1.5361

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 17.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 40.0% 35.71 71.43% -0.398 -0.0597 -0.254
Dahan Insurrection 4 5 0.0% 64.0 100.0% -0.255
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 43.0 100.0% 0.105 0.7046
Elemental Invocation 1 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 6.25% 46.82 87.88% 0.297 -0.069 1.028
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 50.0% 23.75 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 65.67 66.67% 0.335
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 100.0% 39.0 50.0% -0.299 0.3958 -0.604
Second Wave 0 145 25.0% 30.37 91.72% 0.377 0.5642 -0.489
The Great River 3 380 59.1% 34.41 65.79% -1.397 0.1742 -0.851
Ward the Shores 2 11 27.27% 32.64 72.73%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 44 36.5 59.09% -0.223 0.7488 -0.119
Aid From Lesser Spirits 32 34.47 62.5% -0.157 0.6288 -0.578
All Things Weaken 26 39.31 69.23% 0.338 1.4257 0.265
Back Against the Wall 33 29.64 42.42% 0.303 1.1315 -0.966
Disintegrating Ecosystem 33 35.85 72.73% -0.292 0.8269 -0.612
Downward Spiral 49 36.0 57.14% -0.57 0.3924 -0.83
Erosion of Will 32 33.13 59.38% -0.202 0.9145 -0.53
Intensifying Exploitation 1 45.0 100.0% 0.132 1.2061
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 40.62 85.71% 0.234 0.1177 0.741
Memory Fades to Dust 43 30.84 55.81% -0.274
Power Corrodes the Spirit 33 35.55 72.73% -0.696 0.2601 -0.638
Promising Farmlands 31 33.71 74.19% 0.211 1.3463 0.93
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 10 45.0 90.0% 0.115 -0.1736 0.447
Thriving Communities 33 34.36 63.64% 0.044 1.1906 0.055
Tipping Point 9 39.22 77.78%
Unnatural Proliferation 28 34.68 67.86% 0.318 1.2831 -0.351
Untended Land Crumbles 19 35.68 47.37% -0.811

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 656 38.13% 39.08 82.32% -0.682 0.1876 -0.022
B 533 43.0% 33.43 73.17% 0.29 1.0568 -0.327
C 663 37.17% 40.22 81.3% -0.276 0.3186 0.147
D 467 38.78% 35.9 78.59% 0.273 1.0934 -0.057
E 331 43.25% 36.97 77.34% -0.283 0.3705 0.178
F 370 47.96% 35.26 71.62% -0.213 0.5179 -0.458
G 288 46.98% 35.85 74.65% 0.094 0.8103 0.237
H 283 34.78% 42.13 83.39% 0.82 1.5164 0.322

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28 0.0% 20.29 67.86% 0.139 1.6272
Not Using Events or Tokens 56 28.89% 25.27 82.14% 0.344 0.5349 -0.666
Skip Initial Invader Actions 39 7.41% 40.18 89.74% 0.094 -0.6219 -0.181
Start of Game Growth 59 19.15% 40.61 91.53% 0.19 -0.2824 -0.026
Unlimited Undo 127 37.17% 39.15 86.61% -0.401 -0.6522 0.392
Using Tokens but Not Events 131 25.44% 34.63 84.73% 0.378 0.379 0.89

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 108 22.19 18.52%
II 459 31.1 70.81%
III 453 34.71 91.61%
IV 200 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 405
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 317
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 199
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 61
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 75
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 105
Lose: Spirit destroyed 7

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-12 02:39:41 (Pacific Time)