Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 11 9.09% 24.0 -1.177 81.82% -0.096 -0.1861
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 9 22.22% 32.22 2.966 77.78% -0.026 -0.5972
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 12 0.0% 44.92 11.116 91.67% 0.979 0.9015
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 20 50.0% 39.95 6.966 85.0% 0.157 -0.0335
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 19 21.05% 40.42 7.988 68.42% -0.251 0.299
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 8 75.0% 56.5 13.59 87.5% 0.275 1.193
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 62 53.23% 42.79 6.472 56.45% -1.154 0.6151
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 408 35.78% 27.59 -0.106 75.98% -0.149 0.2571
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 347 45.66% 30.68 1.029 76.08% -0.126 0.3003
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 413 51.57% 36.21 4.141 71.19% -0.581 -0.0142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 465 61.12% 37.76 -2.061 66.67% -1.085 -0.3182
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 330 79.09% 35.78 -2.091 47.88% -1.431 0.1349
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 141 77.3% 35.3 4.139 43.26% -0.744 0.7303
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 893 69.78% 35.48 1.079 33.71% -1.465 0.4841
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1735 33.9% 23.62 0.441 80.46% 0.314 0.4845
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1596 32.59% 28.66 0.539 83.08% 0.322 0.3466
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2000 38.63% 36.83 5.729 81.4% 0.486 0.6416
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1905 42.03% 42.28 1.269 80.0% -0.876 -0.6005
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1530 41.24% 46.35 2.15 82.03% -0.944 -0.6789
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 879 47.94% 47.31 3.057 67.69% -1.27 -0.9802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2299 65.91% 43.37 5.071 54.41% -1.094 0.1429
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1307 32.18% 23.03 -1.904 76.51% 0.085 0.4813
The Kingdom of England 1 3 825 39.09% 29.05 -0.172 71.64% -0.681 -0.0941
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1099 43.58% 31.49 2.127 68.88% -0.589 0.034
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1407 55.79% 33.1 1.461 53.73% -0.934 0.1922
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1551 50.68% 41.42 4.715 62.54% -0.817 0.2014
The Kingdom of England 5 9 388 65.8% 38.36 3.598 42.53% -1.762 -0.2601
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2882 58.07% 36.51 2.28 33.21% -1.394 0.4713
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 637 39.37% 26.4 -2.683 74.1% -0.583 -0.0365
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 476 52.65% 27.89 -0.54 67.44% -0.273 0.5695
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 927 45.18% 32.55 1.219 50.7% -1.146 0.0926
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 819 57.28% 38.43 2.869 52.14% -1.198 0.0466
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 518 54.84% 42.1 16.232 51.35% 0.675 1.9783
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 322 60.87% 45.88 5.734 51.24% -0.966 0.1039
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2785 53.54% 51.14 6.298 53.72% -1.158 0.3257
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 259 26.64% 24.43 -1.418 75.29% -0.092 0.2577
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 228 29.2% 24.93 0.002 60.09% -0.087 0.1725
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 270 39.26% 32.78 0.755 72.59% -0.619 -0.2939
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 367 43.87% 41.26 6.645 73.57% 0.124 0.3851
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 285 50.18% 37.51 7.039 62.11% -0.139 0.6795
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 378 56.35% 42.57 7.463 63.49% -0.495 0.0044
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1216 56.92% 38.52 6.538 43.91% -1.178 -0.0224
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 796 32.02% 22.9 -2.834 79.65% 0.114 0.3642
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 641 41.53% 27.42 3.562 79.25% 0.713 0.9037
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 923 41.82% 31.49 1.876 80.39% 0.098 0.3311
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1016 52.88% 38.48 4.487 76.48% -0.108 0.3529
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 703 56.29% 39.1 2.771 72.97% -0.603 0.1649
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 298 63.64% 40.45 8.597 65.44% 0.087 1.1504
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1786 61.86% 41.52 2.369 60.97% -1.002 0.031
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 382 29.92% 23.75 -2.066 74.61% -0.582 -0.3347
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 292 46.39% 26.75 -5.184 64.04% -0.613 0.1332
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 277 43.48% 36.19 -1.228 79.78% -0.523 -0.0159
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 338 58.28% 38.4 -6.409 62.43% -2.144 -1.2829
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 265 63.02% 40.51 -0.609 61.89% -1.113 -0.1365
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 144 65.97% 46.48 -4.014 53.47% -1.624 0.2766
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 949 68.57% 36.37 1.44 27.92% -1.775 0.0199

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 195 19.49% 23.82 85.64% 0.813 0.2683 -0.094
Blitz 0 580 43.56% 26.32 62.76% -0.726 -0.3177 -0.224
Dahan Insurrection 4 632 25.2% 42.61 62.66% -0.704 -1.1873 -0.26
Despicable Theft 2 157 40.76% 28.45 64.97% -0.853 -0.3053 -0.846
Elemental Invocation 1 238 41.35% 29.43 74.79% 0.14 0.875 -1.607
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2156 22.43% 38.51 63.96% 0.032 -0.6271 -0.35
Powers Long Forgotten 1 241 47.9% 27.02 65.56% 0.61 1.1929 -1.19
Rituals of Terror 3 209 39.23% 40.49 73.21% -0.176 -0.268 0.964
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 112 66.67% 26.13 58.04% -0.389 0.3637 0.514
Second Wave 0 2254 39.93% 29.9 76.44% -0.143 -0.0461 0.462
The Great River 3 1914 49.01% 27.51 47.75% -1.434 -0.1818 -1.613
Varied Terrains 2 95 40.0% 22.74 51.58% -0.04 0.7828 -0.376
Ward the Shores 2 327 42.24% 29.57 60.86% 0.002 0.8531 -0.398

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1696 31.95 59.85% 0.172 0.2531 0.073
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1800 34.29 60.94% -0.114 -0.2245 0.333
All Things Weaken 1213 33.28 55.23% 0.785 0.9688 0.043
Attenuated Essence 260 32.06 59.23% -0.266 -0.204 0.293
Back Against the Wall 1705 31.5 57.83% 0.097 0.0739 -0.196
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 256 28.25 48.83% 0.101 0.2786 -0.478
Burn Brightest Before the End 258 34.03 53.1% 0.274 0.3659 -0.081
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1668 29.37 54.98% -0.963 -0.6667 -0.046
Downward Spiral 4030 27.0 60.12% -0.646 -0.5377 -0.045
Erosion of Will 1650 30.58 56.12% 0.425 0.5886 -0.154
Intensifying Exploitation 242 28.78 45.45% -0.28 -0.0768 -0.573
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 541 37.55 75.97% 0.167 -0.2805 0.421
Memory Fades to Dust 3839 26.95 55.87% -0.309 -0.0695 -0.04
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1144 32.33 54.2% 0.407 0.5201 0.002
Promising Farmlands 1630 29.81 54.91% 0.023 0.3985 -0.097
Shattered Fragments of Power 244 35.39 57.38% 0.233 0.3106 0.037
Slow Dissolution of Will 227 29.19 48.02% 0.59 1.0553 -0.443
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 377 36.71 80.11% 0.645 0.0746 0.904
The Border of Life and Death 78 38.72 76.92% 1.046 0.5839 0.564
Thriving Communities 1177 31.3 54.38% -0.118 0.1245 -0.048
Thriving Crops 136 29.93 58.82% 0.148 -0.071 -0.316
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.537
Unnatural Proliferation 1297 35.33 57.83% -0.086 0.0319 0.074
Untended Land Crumbles 1236 30.89 53.96% -0.203 0.0464 0.004

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25107 40.01% 27.77 69.62% -0.247 0.6606 -0.089
B 24228 40.37% 28.65 71.01% -0.163 0.6649 -0.054
C 26460 39.92% 30.39 71.32% 0.046 0.7198 0.17
D 23250 40.84% 28.97 70.36% 0.117 0.9499 -0.101
E 11011 41.67% 31.29 68.6% 0.104 0.7413 -0.108
F 12063 39.48% 31.71 73.07% 0.042 0.7847 0.117
G 9881 39.43% 30.64 74.21% 0.066 0.8177 0.075
H 10445 38.46% 31.61 73.15% 0.055 0.7735 -0.023

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3644 0.0% 16.33 61.61% -0.967 -0.2519 -0.744
Not Using Events or Tokens 12604 33.19% 21.49 70.55% -0.018 0.4774 -0.37
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2480 11.27% 31.43 86.81% -0.016 -0.7147 -0.128
Start of Game Growth 3623 16.37% 32.02 85.76% 0.759 0.2817 0.961
Unlimited Undo 8741 28.55% 31.84 80.01% -0.047 -0.0794 0.969
Using Tokens but Not Events 9637 29.3% 30.74 75.11% -0.153 -0.3094 0.295

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13607 14.26 17.3%
II 25402 30.3 72.57%
III 22990 34.84 89.83%
IV 9301 38.61 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2354
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20307
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17904
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9203
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6587
Lose: Invader deck ran out 679
Lose: Adversary condition 4084
Win: Sacrifice victory 181
Lose: Scenario condition 915
Win: Scenario condition 760
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7813
Lose: Spirit destroyed 513

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-20 23:14:52 (Pacific Time)