Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 222 20.27% 23.86 84.68% 0.437 0.4101 -0.097
Blitz 0 610 44.05% 25.92 62.95% 0.526 0.7762 -0.269
Dahan Insurrection 4 681 25.0% 41.61 61.67% -0.163 -0.4122 -0.265
Despicable Theft 2 163 40.49% 28.14 64.42% 0.57 1.0322 -0.811
Elemental Invocation 1 262 43.3% 28.98 73.28% 0.219 0.9221 -1.744
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2268 21.94% 38.57 64.55% 0.704 0.1515 -0.27
Powers Long Forgotten 1 248 47.95% 26.87 65.73% 0.276 0.8992 -1.156
Rituals of Terror 3 222 39.64% 39.42 71.17% -1.065 -0.8722 0.839
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 117 68.1% 26.42 59.83% 0.579 1.5013 0.558
Second Wave 0 2365 39.23% 29.8 76.19% 0.081 0.1983 0.385
The Great River 3 2047 48.02% 26.99 47.19% -0.91 0.158 -1.633
Varied Terrains 2 100 40.0% 23.24 54.0% 0.773 1.5139 -0.366
Ward the Shores 2 341 41.67% 28.88 59.82% -0.624 0.4602 -0.409

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1791 31.73 59.13% -0.054 0.1953 0.092
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1886 34.24 61.08% 0.476 0.3577 0.395
All Things Weaken 1297 32.91 54.66% 0.1 0.4375 0.096
Attenuated Essence 310 31.79 59.35% 0.533 0.5602 0.246
Back Against the Wall 1792 31.54 57.81% 0.452 0.453 -0.118
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 308 29.14 50.97% -0.149 0.0687 -0.303
Burn Brightest Before the End 316 33.84 54.43% 0.697 0.6782 -0.02
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1745 29.38 54.84% -0.017 0.3764 0.016
Downward Spiral 4263 26.68 59.58% 0.03 0.1385 -0.005
Erosion of Will 1724 30.57 55.51% -0.092 0.2602 -0.088
Intensifying Exploitation 297 28.97 47.14% 0.043 0.2883 -0.328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 586 36.97 75.43% 0.58 0.0555 0.466
Memory Fades to Dust 4048 26.86 55.66% 0.241 0.4884 0.016
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1245 31.75 53.73% -0.347 -0.1252 -0.025
Promising Farmlands 1705 29.88 55.37% 0.32 0.6032 -0.03
Shattered Fragments of Power 304 36.16 57.57% 0.837 0.9141 0.079
Slow Dissolution of Will 294 28.66 48.3% -0.484 -0.0866 -0.275
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 405 36.14 78.77% 0.439 -0.256 0.881
The Border of Life and Death 104 38.45 73.08% 0.545 -0.0561 0.422
Thriving Communities 1284 31.19 54.13% -0.23 0.1261 0.032
Thriving Crops 167 30.85 61.08% 0.567 0.3706 -0.043
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.469
Unnatural Proliferation 1382 35.14 57.74% 0.517 0.6796 0.159
Untended Land Crumbles 1307 30.62 53.63% -0.388 -0.1562 0.033

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 27006 39.71% 27.32 68.46% -0.153 0.8518 -0.103
B 25894 40.29% 28.26 69.93% -0.143 0.7764 -0.058
C 28422 39.76% 30.19 70.43% -0.05 0.6848 0.158
D 24900 40.6% 28.8 69.63% -0.033 0.9445 -0.09
E 11840 41.64% 30.98 68.02% 0.158 0.9775 -0.078
F 12921 39.27% 31.24 72.26% 0.017 0.8906 0.12
G 10637 39.45% 30.19 73.19% -0.039 0.7702 0.046
H 11190 38.54% 31.31 72.7% 0.261 1.0754 -0.009

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3934 0.0% 15.88 59.74% -1.394 -0.6864 -0.676
Not Using Events or Tokens 13553 33.12% 21.18 69.28% 0.174 0.5422 -0.416
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2599 11.3% 31.09 85.8% 0.077 -0.5074 -0.271
Start of Game Growth 3847 17.15% 31.87 84.85% 0.944 0.4301 1.067
Unlimited Undo 9336 28.66% 31.57 79.07% 0.298 0.1887 0.953
Using Tokens but Not Events 10331 28.73% 30.18 74.61% 0.276 0.2503 0.307

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15181 13.33 16.34%
II 27012 30.1 72.19%
III 24385 34.83 89.67%
IV 9912 38.67 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2480
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21506
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18946
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9810
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7955
Lose: Invader deck ran out 718
Lose: Adversary condition 4279
Win: Sacrifice victory 189
Lose: Scenario condition 945
Win: Scenario condition 789
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8328
Lose: Spirit destroyed 545

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)