Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 21 9.52% 23.43 -0.197 76.19% 0.045 0.0126
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 15 13.33% 33.73 4.0 80.0% 0.146 -0.3101
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 18 5.56% 41.78 9.47 88.89% 0.978 0.8809
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 27 44.44% 41.44 8.461 88.89% 0.699 0.5641
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 29 34.48% 38.24 7.124 65.52% -0.312 0.1432
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 10 70.0% 45.2 8.182 70.0% -0.135 0.6891
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 88 57.95% 40.56 6.473 51.14% -1.018 0.6895
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 418 35.41% 27.43 -0.403 75.6% -0.274 0.1166
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 350 45.27% 30.55 -1.276 75.71% -0.145 0.2057
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 423 51.66% 36.17 6.562 71.16% 0.328 0.8255
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 476 60.55% 37.36 -2.481 65.76% -1.258 -0.3468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 333 78.68% 35.45 -2.082 47.45% -1.155 0.4917
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 141 77.3% 35.3 16.813 43.26% 0.244 2.0526
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 901 69.71% 35.52 3.059 33.85% -1.048 0.9614
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1762 33.66% 23.48 -1.129 79.97% 0.038 0.2347
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1639 32.3% 28.57 1.163 82.86% 0.374 0.3927
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2053 38.56% 36.81 5.489 81.34% 0.382 0.4937
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1933 41.78% 42.09 1.062 79.62% -0.96 -0.6835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1556 41.2% 46.22 5.553 81.81% -0.187 0.1549
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 900 48.04% 47.28 9.002 67.67% -0.231 0.1713
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2336 65.89% 43.17 3.904 54.2% -1.171 0.1273
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1340 31.97% 22.95 -0.676 76.19% 0.053 0.3546
The Kingdom of England 1 3 848 39.86% 28.92 -0.196 70.99% -0.757 -0.3445
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1116 43.62% 31.56 5.34 69.18% 0.569 1.1614
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1430 55.88% 33.05 2.926 53.57% -0.884 0.2595
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1570 50.71% 41.37 5.582 62.48% -0.754 0.2855
The Kingdom of England 5 9 396 65.98% 38.13 3.611 42.17% -1.179 0.4493
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2935 58.04% 36.44 4.239 33.29% -1.302 0.5949
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 646 39.44% 26.36 0.485 73.99% 0.445 0.8942
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 487 52.7% 27.68 -0.007 66.74% -0.371 0.4293
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 937 45.12% 32.49 1.335 50.69% -0.495 0.7353
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 830 56.88% 38.2 -1.118 51.81% -1.729 -0.3998
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 523 54.89% 41.97 7.141 51.24% -0.28 1.0511
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 324 60.8% 45.92 6.926 51.23% -0.686 0.2952
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2849 53.21% 51.2 11.202 53.95% -0.519 0.9772
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 277 27.08% 24.03 -1.294 74.01% -0.276 -0.009
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 237 29.36% 24.73 -3.805 59.49% -1.303 -0.9789
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 279 39.78% 32.96 1.409 72.76% -0.771 -0.4293
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 378 43.39% 41.06 6.28 73.02% -0.326 -0.1076
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 300 50.67% 37.78 7.37 62.67% -0.137 0.5796
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 389 55.27% 42.17 3.313 62.98% -1.047 -0.429
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1272 56.46% 38.82 7.027 44.5% -1.019 0.0513
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 819 31.73% 22.9 -0.206 79.49% 0.347 0.5935
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 651 41.67% 27.34 1.081 79.11% 0.361 0.5055
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 951 42.64% 31.18 0.731 79.6% -0.017 0.27
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1024 52.95% 38.49 5.358 76.46% 0.121 0.4634
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 723 56.53% 38.88 2.299 72.61% -0.513 0.268
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 298 63.64% 40.45 12.031 65.44% 0.385 1.5993
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1812 61.85% 41.38 2.075 60.76% -0.934 0.1477
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 393 29.85% 23.57 -3.373 74.05% -0.365 -0.0965
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 293 46.23% 26.66 -11.197 63.82% -0.844 -0.0155
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 282 43.42% 36.17 1.739 79.79% 0.391 0.6998
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 345 58.26% 38.11 -2.593 61.74% -1.805 -0.9548
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 268 63.43% 40.51 5.638 61.94% -0.229 0.931
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 144 65.97% 46.48 -7.489 53.47% -1.059 0.8107
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 974 68.76% 36.07 1.234 27.62% -1.885 -0.2795

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 204 20.1% 24.07 85.29% 0.814 0.63 0.062
Blitz 0 585 43.88% 26.3 62.56% -0.433 -0.158 -0.244
Dahan Insurrection 4 637 25.16% 42.63 62.95% 0.434 0.0709 -0.259
Despicable Theft 2 161 40.37% 27.94 63.98% -1.316 -0.6089 -0.845
Elemental Invocation 1 250 42.57% 29.33 73.6% -0.116 0.5085 -1.735
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2190 22.17% 38.52 64.25% 0.862 0.2313 -0.337
Powers Long Forgotten 1 241 47.9% 27.02 65.56% 0.251 1.0424 -1.194
Rituals of Terror 3 211 38.86% 40.49 73.46% 1.154 1.0799 0.969
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 113 66.96% 26.27 58.41% 0.439 1.3255 0.534
Second Wave 0 2308 39.55% 29.94 76.3% -0.016 0.1677 0.458
The Great River 3 1948 48.77% 27.37 47.59% -1.188 -0.2034 -1.619
Varied Terrains 2 96 39.58% 22.88 52.08% -0.232 0.6317 -0.379
Ward the Shores 2 333 42.07% 29.15 60.06% -0.824 0.2765 -0.404

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1727 31.88 59.58% -0.342 -0.3338 0.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1824 34.34 61.13% 0.054 -0.0637 0.336
All Things Weaken 1236 33.19 54.85% 0.346 0.5072 0.043
Attenuated Essence 276 32.22 59.42% 0.059 0.0051 0.383
Back Against the Wall 1739 31.48 57.91% 0.249 0.245 -0.189
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 271 28.85 49.82% 0.185 0.2897 -0.387
Burn Brightest Before the End 273 34.1 53.11% -0.141 -0.1436 -0.046
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1688 29.46 55.04% -0.394 -0.2048 -0.027
Downward Spiral 4098 26.83 59.91% -0.651 -0.5953 -0.048
Erosion of Will 1673 30.49 55.89% -0.124 0.0061 -0.136
Intensifying Exploitation 256 29.27 47.66% 0.418 0.5327 -0.43
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 556 37.36 75.72% 0.141 -0.4476 0.434
Memory Fades to Dust 3904 26.83 55.64% -0.736 -0.5315 -0.033
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1177 32.18 54.21% 0.054 0.1688 -0.02
Promising Farmlands 1654 29.81 55.14% 0.281 0.4705 -0.087
Shattered Fragments of Power 261 35.19 55.94% -0.507 -0.5111 -0.059
Slow Dissolution of Will 248 29.23 49.6% 0.568 0.8634 -0.404
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 382 36.56 79.58% -0.226 -0.9276 0.911
The Border of Life and Death 84 38.3 75.0% -0.053 -0.4747 0.539
Thriving Communities 1208 31.23 54.3% 0.001 0.1155 -0.027
Thriving Crops 144 29.72 59.03% -0.048 -0.3519 -0.398
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.522
Unnatural Proliferation 1319 35.2 57.62% -0.378 -0.3024 0.086
Untended Land Crumbles 1260 30.9 53.97% -0.291 -0.1169 0.006

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 25695 39.93% 27.64 69.3% -0.221 0.7391 -0.084
B 24728 40.35% 28.53 70.69% -0.264 0.6074 -0.059
C 27062 39.86% 30.33 71.07% 0.076 0.7672 0.163
D 23733 40.79% 28.92 70.15% 0.056 0.9339 -0.1
E 11247 41.71% 31.21 68.47% 0.129 0.8184 -0.099
F 12335 39.42% 31.59 72.8% 0.046 0.8449 0.119
G 10105 39.36% 30.5 73.98% -0.006 0.7612 0.069
H 10668 38.52% 31.51 73.08% 0.2 0.958 -0.02

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3752 0.0% 16.2 61.01% -1.171 -0.5339 -0.725
Not Using Events or Tokens 12914 33.18% 21.35 70.15% 0.294 0.7506 -0.382
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2535 11.3% 31.28 86.39% 0.288 -0.5151 -0.098
Start of Game Growth 3717 16.77% 31.93 85.45% 0.738 0.2986 0.921
Unlimited Undo 8927 28.58% 31.74 79.76% 0.15 0.1234 0.948
Using Tokens but Not Events 9814 29.17% 30.6 75.03% 0.2 0.1242 0.298

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14058 13.93 17.01%
II 25912 30.23 72.48%
III 23426 34.83 89.8%
IV 9469 38.62 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2391
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20689
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18243
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9371
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6964
Lose: Invader deck ran out 688
Lose: Adversary condition 4141
Win: Sacrifice victory 183
Lose: Scenario condition 919
Win: Scenario condition 766
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7986
Lose: Spirit destroyed 524

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-05 10:04:38 (Pacific Time)