Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 175 36.0% 29.65 -0.184 85.71% 0.01 0.2933
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 157 44.59% 33.73 2.002 87.9% 0.131 0.542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 192 51.04% 37.77 3.91 76.04% -0.797 0.0791
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 183 65.03% 39.11 4.677 73.22% -0.885 0.3611
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 139 80.58% 37.28 4.021 46.04% -1.838 -0.3365
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 59 81.36% 40.05 5.831 50.85% -1.579 0.3742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 346 75.72% 41.14 5.631 41.04% -2.202 -0.159
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 931 34.39% 24.82 -2.135 86.9% -0.165 -0.1227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 776 36.25% 30.24 0.457 89.95% 0.25 0.2312
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 968 40.92% 38.91 4.658 87.71% -0.008 0.0046
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1048 43.28% 45.22 7.79 86.16% -0.169 0.1189
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 954 41.63% 48.13 9.218 85.95% -0.257 0.1099
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 461 55.75% 50.58 10.551 70.07% -1.065 -0.2382
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1137 71.14% 50.17 10.398 63.41% -1.355 -0.1169
The Kingdom of England 0 1 685 33.78% 24.68 -2.202 84.96% -0.335 -0.0036
The Kingdom of England 1 3 429 39.62% 32.12 1.462 80.42% -0.555 -0.0408
The Kingdom of England 2 4 579 45.64% 34.27 2.471 76.17% -0.857 0.1108
The Kingdom of England 3 6 681 63.86% 35.43 3.135 56.83% -1.698 -0.1195
The Kingdom of England 4 7 990 49.44% 44.91 7.251 69.7% -1.391 0.1074
The Kingdom of England 5 9 199 65.13% 45.22 7.83 53.27% -1.814 0.259
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1411 62.78% 44.43 7.266 42.1% -2.501 -0.253
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 347 40.58% 28.53 -0.781 82.71% -0.488 0.0263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 237 60.52% 30.59 0.458 74.68% -0.687 0.2128
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 513 44.81% 33.73 1.813 52.63% -2.197 -0.0541
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 476 57.05% 40.44 5.329 55.25% -1.899 0.2973
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 314 54.63% 42.5 6.292 50.64% -2.124 0.0342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 161 59.01% 48.93 9.44 55.28% -1.734 0.0831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1460 51.16% 55.7 12.792 60.55% -1.799 0.2976
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 436 34.42% 24.52 -2.293 89.22% 0.169 0.2547
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 367 41.5% 28.89 -0.088 86.38% 0.073 0.1068
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 507 42.74% 32.56 1.534 85.8% -0.072 0.1628
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 635 55.89% 40.72 5.624 81.89% -0.253 0.0337
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 392 58.87% 42.32 6.351 79.59% -0.439 0.3442
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 171 66.67% 43.58 7.129 72.51% -0.749 0.4179
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 886 65.57% 45.89 8.156 68.96% -1.006 0.1187
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 127 29.92% 26.5 -2.022 87.4% -0.044 -0.1461
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 116 49.57% 30.47 -0.064 74.14% -0.855 -0.0759
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 108 49.07% 39.65 4.551 88.89% 0.281 0.7003
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 127 58.27% 41.38 5.355 68.5% -1.092 0.1613
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 125 66.4% 43.66 6.79 65.6% -1.041 0.0759
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 64 71.88% 50.36 9.727 60.94% -1.396 0.6024
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 306 83.66% 45.96 7.884 37.91% -2.281 -0.4026

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 378 48.11% 26.72 -2.74 66.4% -0.824 -0.2543
Dahan Insurrection 4 410 35.77% 50.9 9.12 76.34% -0.302 0.0966
Despicable Theft 2 55 41.82% 33.95 1.385 80.0% -0.501 -0.2313
Elemental Invocation 1 74 58.11% 23.65 -3.645 75.68% -0.419 0.0454
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1602 22.06% 40.76 2.815 67.67% -0.751 -0.3849
Powers Long Forgotten 1 172 55.03% 31.39 -0.222 75.58% -0.32 0.1244
Rituals of Terror 3 123 43.09% 41.8 5.173 79.67% -0.212 0.4327
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 70.15% 32.68 1.192 72.06% -0.643 0.0025
Second Wave 0 1563 45.13% 30.7 -0.443 77.16% -0.606 -0.1776
The Great River 3 763 53.88% 32.67 0.465 58.58% -1.653 -0.1896
Ward the Shores 2 233 50.22% 31.89 0.087 65.24% -1.141 -0.107

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 994 32.4 -1.296 62.47% -1.61 0.463
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1066 33.95 -0.515 61.63% -1.668 0.2502
All Things Weaken 504 35.04 -0.559 60.52% -1.595 0.5752
Back Against the Wall 1014 31.95 -1.382 59.86% -1.768 0.323
Disintegrating Ecosystem 994 30.1 -2.482 57.44% -1.779 0.4457
Downward Spiral 2435 28.73 -2.224 64.23% -1.687 0.3361
Erosion of Will 989 30.94 -1.931 58.34% -1.797 0.4125
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 236 39.34 1.72 78.81% -0.594 0.0919
Memory Fades to Dust 2276 28.39 -2.513 60.11% -1.907 0.3117
Power Corrodes the Spirit 478 33.45 -1.357 56.69% -1.719 0.3047
Promising Farmlands 961 30.08 -2.449 56.71% -1.836 0.3778
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 176 38.46 1.484 85.23% -0.337 0.0723
Thriving Communities 467 32.83 -1.524 57.6% -1.696 0.3987
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.27 53.88% -1.961 0.2657
Unnatural Proliferation 533 35.47 -0.105 61.35% -1.578 0.5083
Untended Land Crumbles 504 31.53 -2.13 55.75% -1.927 0.1783

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 12739 42.29% 30.36 -0.821 77.13% -0.138 -0.8986
B 12666 43.04% 31.34 -0.347 78.31% 0.011 -0.8456
C 13838 42.56% 32.88 0.416 77.84% 0.051 -1.0374
D 12435 42.91% 31.77 -0.146 78.08% -0.011 -0.8612
E 3739 45.93% 35.68 0.953 77.08% 0.113 -0.8521
F 5150 41.59% 34.13 0.433 78.78% 0.033 -0.8813
G 4567 42.68% 33.55 0.305 79.26% 0.069 -0.8359
H 4892 40.21% 33.88 0.203 78.31% -0.106 -1.0198

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2037 0.0% 18.58 -4.914 70.74% -2.08 -0.0235
Not Using Events or Tokens 6406 37.59% 23.46 -2.945 79.29% -0.119 0.0968
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1147 13.68% 32.01 1.011 91.02% 0.447 -0.2396
Start of Game Growth 1637 15.73% 32.96 1.039 90.78% 0.447 -0.023
Unlimited Undo 4047 32.2% 34.05 0.912 85.17% 0.344 -0.0759
Using Tokens but Not Events 4810 33.7% 35.23 0.782 81.93% 0.134 0.0815

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4146 22.35 28.82%
II 13551 30.84 74.22%
III 12325 34.35 89.96%
IV 4991 37.52 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 801
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8936
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7466
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4100
Lose: Invader deck ran out 406
Lose: Adversary condition 2170
Win: Sacrifice victory 99
Lose: Scenario condition 553
Win: Scenario condition 464
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4284
Lose: Spirit destroyed 293

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)