Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 160 20.63% 24.1 85.63% 0.77 0.5496 -0.144
Blitz 0 534 44.15% 27.01 63.48% 0.131 0.418 -0.346
Dahan Insurrection 4 586 25.61% 42.52 62.29% -0.188 -0.3028 -0.393
Despicable Theft 2 144 41.67% 28.66 65.97% -0.924 -0.1854 -0.78
Elemental Invocation 1 172 45.03% 26.16 74.42% 1.003 1.7593 -1.103
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1966 23.99% 38.69 62.97% -0.379 -0.9607 -0.432
Powers Long Forgotten 1 228 48.44% 27.22 66.23% -0.979 -0.1251 -1.28
Rituals of Terror 3 183 39.89% 41.95 76.5% -0.445 -0.6156 0.866
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 102 69.31% 27.0 58.82% 0.257 1.1673 0.93
Second Wave 0 2140 40.5% 30.24 77.38% 0.217 0.2966 0.45
The Great River 3 1733 50.26% 28.51 49.34% -1.516 -0.1521 -1.554
Varied Terrains 2 83 37.35% 21.04 46.99% -0.706 0.1734 -0.339
Ward the Shores 2 306 44.19% 30.1 61.44% -0.115 0.8666 -0.466

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1621 31.93 59.84% 0.117 0.2204 -0.085
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1722 34.42 61.38% 0.822 0.677 0.168
All Things Weaken 1135 33.07 54.89% -0.349 0.017 -0.136
Attenuated Essence 201 32.33 59.2% 1.322 1.3203 0.274
Back Against the Wall 1643 31.28 57.52% 0.05 0.1151 -0.391
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 194 26.75 45.36% -0.418 -0.1825 -0.866
Burn Brightest Before the End 186 32.74 52.15% 0.225 0.3855 -0.36
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1605 29.48 55.26% -0.537 -0.1612 -0.138
Downward Spiral 3811 27.52 61.19% -0.073 -0.001 -0.144
Erosion of Will 1586 30.7 56.12% 0.166 0.423 -0.297
Intensifying Exploitation 167 28.63 43.71% -0.702 -0.4277 -0.758
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 497 37.81 76.86% 0.402 -0.0842 0.35
Memory Fades to Dust 3652 27.19 56.27% -0.245 -0.0616 -0.182
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1060 32.3 54.34% 0.053 0.2653 -0.154
Promising Farmlands 1546 29.95 55.05% 0.27 0.5929 -0.238
Shattered Fragments of Power 176 33.88 56.25% 0.64 0.81 -0.301
Slow Dissolution of Will 164 28.21 43.29% -0.545 -0.1607 -0.727
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 352 36.96 80.68% 0.82 0.1434 0.781
The Border of Life and Death 55 38.15 76.36% 1.194 0.6778 0.548
Thriving Communities 1083 31.31 54.76% -0.173 0.1506 -0.209
Thriving Crops 96 28.67 57.29% -0.112 -0.1103 -0.509
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.649
Unnatural Proliferation 1188 35.53 58.84% 0.552 0.7383 0.016
Untended Land Crumbles 1137 31.31 55.06% 0.096 0.4347 -0.132

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 23242 40.51% 28.24 70.85% -0.015 0.8485 -0.129
B 22428 40.8% 29.06 72.18% -0.177 0.6442 -0.041
C 24333 40.64% 30.73 72.44% -0.012 0.6857 0.184
D 21574 41.2% 29.28 71.34% -0.104 0.7526 -0.17
E 9796 42.18% 31.87 69.94% 0.145 0.8331 -0.0
F 11133 39.93% 32.15 74.0% 0.086 0.9036 0.139
G 9058 39.99% 31.07 75.13% 0.05 0.9307 0.061
H 9667 38.83% 31.99 73.71% 0.048 0.8287 -0.056

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3349 0.0% 16.83 63.54% -0.641 0.075 -0.959
Not Using Events or Tokens 11664 33.22% 21.99 72.07% -0.439 0.0353 -0.383
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2326 11.56% 31.34 87.58% 0.389 -0.1782 -0.019
Start of Game Growth 3370 16.36% 31.89 86.11% 0.905 0.2401 1.064
Unlimited Undo 7951 29.28% 32.38 81.4% 0.097 0.1197 0.971
Using Tokens but Not Events 8865 29.6% 31.3 76.32% -0.022 0.0261 0.344

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11759 15.45 18.33%
II 23651 30.45 72.83%
III 21538 34.8 89.77%
IV 8732 38.47 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2156
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19008
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16721
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 8638
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5052
Lose: Invader deck ran out 643
Lose: Adversary condition 3837
Win: Sacrifice victory 173
Lose: Scenario condition 870
Win: Scenario condition 718
Lose: Blight pool ran out 7379
Lose: Spirit destroyed 485

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)