Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 90 24.44% 25.64 87.78% 0.319 0.1299 -0.534
Blitz 0 408 46.46% 28.2 67.16% -0.836 -0.6517 -0.344
Dahan Insurrection 4 379 31.17% 51.64 72.3% 0.569 0.2548 -0.096
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.71 0.0344 -0.068
Elemental Invocation 1 126 52.8% 24.32 73.02% -0.441 0.3309 -0.971
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1741 24.19% 39.77 63.58% -0.523 -1.1441 -0.614
Powers Long Forgotten 1 160 53.5% 30.06 73.13% -0.45 0.0921 -0.846
Rituals of Terror 3 136 42.65% 46.05 83.09% -0.585 -0.4781 0.899
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.153 1.1237 0.584
Second Wave 0 1794 40.18% 31.17 78.65% 0.065 0.1326 0.278
The Great River 3 1277 53.1% 31.65 55.21% -1.33 -0.0324 -1.572
Varied Terrains 2 41 46.34% 29.88 60.98% -1.135 -0.561 -0.337
Ward the Shores 2 261 44.19% 32.04 64.75% -1.153 -0.0199 -0.401

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1388 32.36 60.59% -0.177 0.0216 -0.429
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1532 34.42 61.49% 0.266 0.1998 -0.185
All Things Weaken 899 34.76 57.4% 0.386 0.7537 -0.358
Attenuated Essence 43 26.26 41.86% -0.498 -0.4269 -1.531
Back Against the Wall 1421 31.62 58.13% -0.242 -0.1732 -0.617
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 40 25.63 42.5% 0.001 0.2577 -1.07
Burn Brightest Before the End 43 30.81 46.51% -0.25 -0.0754 -0.293
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1371 30.11 56.67% -0.566 -0.1275 -0.398
Downward Spiral 3208 28.56 63.44% -0.119 0.1267 -0.411
Erosion of Will 1368 31.23 56.65% -0.323 -0.0055 -0.617
Intensifying Exploitation 21 25.9 47.62% -0.147 0.1227 -1.677
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 395 39.61 80.25% 0.803 0.2933 0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 3071 28.2 58.84% -0.174 0.1901 -0.461
Power Corrodes the Spirit 828 33.77 57.37% 0.71 0.9466 -0.387
Promising Farmlands 1313 30.28 55.75% -0.019 0.4416 -0.51
Shattered Fragments of Power 40 37.75 72.5% 0.952 1.0075 0.342
Slow Dissolution of Will 29 29.34 44.83% -0.311 0.0966 -1.001
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 281 38.31 84.7% -0.539 -1.181 0.543
The Border of Life and Death 9 34.56 88.89% 0.98 0.5931 0.429
Thriving Communities 857 32.58 55.66% -0.284 0.0735 -0.521
Thriving Crops 16 24.63 62.5% -0.184 -0.2989 -0.679
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.823
Unnatural Proliferation 944 36.25 59.64% 0.259 0.4324 -0.288
Untended Land Crumbles 914 31.88 55.8% -0.23 0.0179 -0.502

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 18198 42.16% 30.3 75.98% -0.072 0.7606 -0.058
B 17937 42.02% 30.98 76.75% -0.272 0.5275 -0.032
C 19540 41.66% 32.57 76.7% 0.081 0.738 0.192
D 17333 42.39% 31.16 75.93% -0.189 0.6046 -0.163
E 7126 43.97% 34.22 74.52% 0.046 0.6738 0.001
F 8435 40.53% 33.96 77.94% -0.054 0.6592 0.059
G 7081 40.9% 32.74 78.42% 0.223 0.9612 0.136
H 7602 39.35% 33.38 76.84% 0.26 0.9191 -0.121

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2686 0.0% 18.72 70.81% -0.561 0.2521 -0.515
Not Using Events or Tokens 8971 34.85% 23.85 79.13% 0.302 0.6383 -0.285
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1920 11.2% 32.14 90.78% 0.531 -0.1021 -0.207
Start of Game Growth 2619 14.22% 32.67 89.77% 0.032 -0.2578 0.927
Unlimited Undo 6396 30.1% 33.66 84.52% -0.049 -0.046 1.019
Using Tokens but Not Events 7015 30.96% 34.4 81.7% 0.236 0.1616 0.503

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7110 20.63 25.68%
II 19530 31.02 74.14%
III 17843 34.75 90.17%
IV 7194 38.05 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1826
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15807
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14062
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7113
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1075
Lose: Invader deck ran out 530
Lose: Adversary condition 3230
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 760
Win: Scenario condition 608
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6113
Lose: Spirit destroyed 406

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)