Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 37 13.51% 24.3 1.189 75.68% 0.277 0.7009
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 22 18.18% 32.55 2.936 77.27% 0.011 0.0096
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 25 20.0% 38.2 1.756 84.0% 0.147 0.2774
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 34 44.12% 40.68 6.035 88.24% 0.311 0.3673
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 51 45.1% 36.45 4.099 58.82% -0.924 -0.5306
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 21 71.43% 50.14 13.763 71.43% -0.251 0.5974
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 134 61.65% 39.03 4.213 48.51% -1.4 0.3858
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 441 35.6% 27.41 2.536 75.74% 0.502 0.9472
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 363 44.2% 30.25 1.08 75.21% 0.026 0.2706
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 442 51.47% 36.26 6.926 71.27% 0.201 0.7526
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 490 60.86% 36.86 -2.82 64.69% -1.285 -0.3381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 339 78.47% 35.22 -2.32 47.2% -1.157 0.1652
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 142 76.76% 35.4 13.893 43.66% 0.277 1.7829
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 944 69.61% 35.12 1.694 33.69% -1.662 0.1414
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1820 33.41% 23.4 -0.31 79.62% 0.26 0.4774
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1719 32.17% 28.21 -0.748 81.85% -0.24 -0.2954
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2176 37.89% 36.77 5.816 81.07% 0.256 0.2573
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2004 41.14% 41.96 7.617 79.44% 0.114 0.318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1606 40.78% 45.95 6.936 81.38% -0.077 0.1424
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 953 48.63% 46.8 7.4 66.95% -0.781 -0.3849
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2443 65.75% 42.58 2.826 53.46% -1.378 -0.1548
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1395 32.15% 22.68 -2.413 75.2% -0.568 -0.2506
The Kingdom of England 1 3 882 39.47% 28.66 0.122 70.41% -0.529 -0.2382
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1160 43.61% 31.12 -1.039 68.28% -0.825 -0.3472
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1469 56.0% 32.94 2.982 53.51% -0.888 0.1516
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1609 50.69% 40.98 0.961 61.9% -1.231 -0.2487
The Kingdom of England 5 9 426 65.63% 37.17 1.063 40.38% -1.95 -0.4193
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3059 57.65% 35.93 1.315 32.82% -1.967 -0.1435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 670 40.12% 26.23 -0.392 73.73% 0.156 0.5099
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 519 52.53% 26.92 -3.27 64.55% -1.277 -0.448
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 983 45.25% 31.96 -0.875 49.85% -1.396 -0.2315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 852 56.94% 37.99 2.096 51.53% -1.188 -0.0168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 534 54.7% 41.65 4.269 50.94% -0.693 0.6295
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 334 60.78% 45.69 6.708 51.2% -0.72 0.5234
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2970 52.46% 50.94 8.202 53.77% -1.249 0.1361
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 306 26.14% 24.24 1.964 73.86% 0.42 0.6738
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 259 31.52% 24.66 0.116 59.46% -0.533 -0.0907
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 315 41.9% 32.0 1.044 70.48% -0.41 -0.0728
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 408 43.87% 40.78 7.139 72.06% -0.103 -0.1243
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 319 50.16% 37.7 5.062 62.7% -0.508 0.0008
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 425 54.12% 41.07 1.079 60.94% -1.499 -1.0497
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1439 54.91% 39.81 9.252 46.28% -0.881 0.1641
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 842 32.29% 22.85 -1.107 78.86% -0.478 -0.2113
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 674 42.19% 27.33 2.173 79.08% 0.46 0.4964
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 989 42.32% 30.81 0.712 78.56% -0.356 -0.1675
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1058 52.67% 38.34 4.804 76.18% 0.055 0.281
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 750 56.36% 38.75 5.346 72.67% 0.088 0.8319
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 301 63.67% 40.21 -3.609 65.12% -0.577 0.4076
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1874 61.82% 41.09 3.777 60.14% -0.874 0.0087
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 414 30.75% 23.44 -0.269 73.43% 0.09 0.2933
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 301 45.67% 26.12 -7.625 62.46% -1.384 -0.5963
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 296 44.07% 35.49 0.995 78.38% -0.166 0.1042
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 360 58.06% 37.14 -4.557 60.0% -1.622 -0.5183
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 275 63.64% 40.08 -0.999 61.09% -1.188 -0.2352
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 146 65.07% 46.0 -3.705 52.74% -0.883 0.5111
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1030 69.16% 35.8 3.791 27.38% -1.848 -0.3049

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 221 19.91% 23.97 85.07% 0.408 0.5534 0.111
Blitz 0 610 44.05% 25.92 62.95% 0.583 0.8174 -0.275
Dahan Insurrection 4 676 25.19% 41.69 61.83% -0.248 -0.491 -0.273
Despicable Theft 2 162 40.12% 27.99 64.2% 0.204 0.8448 -0.812
Elemental Invocation 1 259 43.41% 29.12 73.75% 0.612 1.36 -1.743
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2261 21.96% 38.55 64.48% 0.572 0.0228 -0.284
Powers Long Forgotten 1 247 48.15% 26.91 65.59% 0.295 1.0022 -1.163
Rituals of Terror 3 221 39.82% 39.6 71.49% -0.977 -0.8526 0.891
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 117 68.1% 26.42 59.83% 0.578 1.5044 0.55
Second Wave 0 2359 39.25% 29.81 76.13% -0.286 -0.1463 0.38
The Great River 3 2034 48.13% 27.02 47.15% -0.936 0.1765 -1.64
Varied Terrains 2 99 40.4% 23.16 53.54% 0.736 1.5238 -0.365
Ward the Shores 2 340 41.49% 28.89 59.71% -0.502 0.5695 -0.416

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1782 31.72 59.2% -0.095 0.159 0.078
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1883 34.23 61.07% 0.497 0.424 0.385
All Things Weaken 1292 32.96 54.72% -0.082 0.2374 0.091
Attenuated Essence 304 31.75 59.21% 0.362 0.4123 0.238
Back Against the Wall 1789 31.53 57.8% 0.406 0.4333 -0.137
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 304 29.08 50.99% 0.029 0.2413 -0.308
Burn Brightest Before the End 311 33.67 54.34% 0.281 0.3024 -0.021
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1738 29.39 54.95% -0.157 0.1859 0.013
Downward Spiral 4243 26.74 59.75% 0.164 0.2825 -0.006
Erosion of Will 1723 30.55 55.48% -0.26 0.027 -0.098
Intensifying Exploitation 292 28.91 46.58% -0.075 0.1504 -0.331
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 584 36.98 75.34% 0.549 -0.0192 0.457
Memory Fades to Dust 4031 26.83 55.62% 0.043 0.2863 -0.002
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1233 31.79 53.93% -0.203 -0.0048 -0.01
Promising Farmlands 1701 29.88 55.38% 0.556 0.8292 -0.035
Shattered Fragments of Power 297 35.63 56.57% 0.498 0.5863 -0.018
Slow Dissolution of Will 291 28.87 48.8% -0.501 -0.1144 -0.293
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 405 36.14 78.77% 0.228 -0.4232 0.872
The Border of Life and Death 102 38.12 72.55% 0.547 -0.0527 0.384
Thriving Communities 1276 31.15 54.08% -0.265 0.0496 -0.004
Thriving Crops 164 30.55 60.37% 0.499 0.3573 -0.085
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.482
Unnatural Proliferation 1372 35.09 57.73% 0.338 0.5354 0.154
Untended Land Crumbles 1303 30.65 53.65% -0.52 -0.3154 0.026

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 26878 39.73% 27.34 68.53% -0.244 0.7466 -0.105
B 25753 40.33% 28.3 70.04% -0.095 0.8161 -0.052
C 28279 39.81% 30.2 70.48% -0.05 0.673 0.16
D 24773 40.63% 28.82 69.71% 0.084 1.0322 -0.092
E 11775 41.67% 31.01 68.08% 0.227 1.0351 -0.082
F 12854 39.25% 31.26 72.33% -0.016 0.8596 0.12
G 10568 39.41% 30.2 73.27% -0.157 0.6567 0.051
H 11135 38.54% 31.31 72.71% 0.269 1.0899 -0.013

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 3925 0.0% 15.89 59.77% -1.428 -0.6975 -0.705
Not Using Events or Tokens 13485 33.13% 21.19 69.37% 0.19 0.5379 -0.431
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2588 11.31% 31.12 85.86% 0.29 -0.2867 -0.213
Start of Game Growth 3831 17.17% 31.87 84.89% 0.734 0.2315 1.093
Unlimited Undo 9272 28.7% 31.61 79.2% 0.37 0.2557 0.976
Using Tokens but Not Events 10284 28.8% 30.21 74.62% 0.305 0.2743 0.308

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 15050 13.4 16.38%
II 26895 30.12 72.21%
III 24273 34.83 89.69%
IV 9873 38.67 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2465
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21413
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18869
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9772
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7841
Lose: Invader deck ran out 712
Lose: Adversary condition 4264
Win: Sacrifice victory 188
Lose: Scenario condition 944
Win: Scenario condition 786
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8296
Lose: Spirit destroyed 541

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-03 03:34:55 (Pacific Time)