Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 161 36.65% 29.62 -0.204 86.34% 0.097 0.3742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 142 44.37% 33.51 1.902 86.62% 0.025 0.4203
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 177 52.54% 37.54 3.845 75.14% -0.819 0.0599
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 166 66.27% 39.3 4.836 73.49% -0.831 0.4202
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 118 80.51% 37.03 3.805 44.92% -1.907 -0.3931
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 52 80.77% 40.4 5.972 51.92% -1.567 0.4069
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 312 76.28% 40.56 5.343 39.74% -2.281 -0.2319
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 893 34.17% 24.86 -2.124 87.01% -0.159 -0.1188
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 731 36.57% 30.17 0.434 89.74% 0.245 0.2183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 910 41.01% 38.77 4.627 87.36% -0.032 -0.0278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 982 43.75% 45.25 7.837 86.56% -0.13 0.1561
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 898 41.48% 48.22 9.272 86.3% -0.229 0.139
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 446 55.61% 50.55 10.533 69.73% -1.075 -0.2459
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1058 70.21% 50.86 10.711 64.93% -1.304 -0.0636
The Kingdom of England 0 1 666 34.31% 24.55 -2.264 84.68% -0.352 -0.021
The Kingdom of England 1 3 412 38.57% 32.15 1.47 80.58% -0.554 -0.0493
The Kingdom of England 2 4 551 45.97% 34.36 2.521 76.41% -0.832 0.1334
The Kingdom of England 3 6 644 63.49% 35.64 3.247 57.45% -1.671 -0.0927
The Kingdom of England 4 7 952 49.32% 44.94 7.27 69.75% -1.382 0.1152
The Kingdom of England 5 9 193 64.55% 45.34 7.902 53.37% -1.81 0.2576
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1360 62.96% 44.12 7.117 41.4% -2.534 -0.2814
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 334 40.66% 28.39 -0.846 82.93% -0.474 0.0397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 226 60.81% 30.4 0.372 73.89% -0.728 0.1689
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 484 45.64% 33.87 1.875 53.1% -2.16 -0.0201
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 457 56.36% 40.53 5.372 55.36% -1.902 0.2829
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 303 53.97% 42.46 6.265 50.5% -2.141 0.0099
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 157 59.24% 49.0 9.477 55.41% -1.724 0.0931
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1409 51.45% 55.81 12.852 60.82% -1.779 0.3225
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 423 34.77% 24.46 -2.318 89.13% 0.17 0.252
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 344 42.56% 28.89 -0.045 86.92% 0.136 0.1589
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 476 43.35% 32.51 1.558 85.5% -0.075 0.1573
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 599 55.57% 40.8 5.697 82.64% -0.19 0.0966
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 382 58.58% 42.56 6.471 80.1% -0.401 0.3755
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 167 66.47% 43.63 7.15 72.46% -0.742 0.4183
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 833 64.57% 46.14 8.277 69.39% -0.982 0.1471
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 120 30.0% 26.49 -2.03 87.5% 0.016 -0.0959
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 114 49.56% 30.4 -0.114 73.68% -0.881 -0.1343
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 101 46.53% 39.97 4.681 90.1% 0.351 0.7761
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 117 59.83% 40.85 5.097 67.52% -1.128 0.1223
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 113 65.49% 44.15 7.021 66.37% -1.01 0.1133
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 60 71.67% 51.5 10.235 63.33% -1.303 0.7121
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 270 83.7% 46.34 8.054 38.89% -2.256 -0.3568

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 361 47.88% 26.28 -2.94 65.93% -0.87 -0.2954
Dahan Insurrection 4 398 35.58% 50.83 9.095 76.63% -0.278 0.1227
Despicable Theft 2 47 38.3% 33.57 1.192 78.72% -0.589 -0.2853
Elemental Invocation 1 64 56.25% 23.72 -3.703 76.56% -0.284 0.1509
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1454 22.93% 40.78 2.825 66.85% -0.733 -0.3676
Powers Long Forgotten 1 164 55.9% 31.25 -0.313 74.39% -0.368 0.0741
Rituals of Terror 3 113 40.71% 41.95 5.208 81.42% -0.13 0.5138
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 66 69.23% 32.06 0.931 71.21% -0.724 -0.0841
Second Wave 0 1534 45.07% 30.73 -0.44 77.25% -0.609 -0.1813
The Great River 3 697 53.81% 32.45 0.313 57.82% -1.724 -0.2735
Ward the Shores 2 220 51.83% 32.15 0.183 65.45% -1.088 -0.0528

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 943 32.51 -1.223 63.52% -1.574 0.5003
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1013 33.47 -0.753 61.11% -1.717 0.2028
All Things Weaken 455 34.94 -0.613 60.44% -1.618 0.543
Back Against the Wall 963 32.04 -1.324 60.75% -1.743 0.3528
Disintegrating Ecosystem 948 30.07 -2.504 57.7% -1.778 0.4463
Downward Spiral 2332 28.71 -2.229 64.45% -1.687 0.3345
Erosion of Will 930 31.01 -1.896 58.49% -1.796 0.4126
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 218 39.14 1.581 78.44% -0.644 0.0506
Memory Fades to Dust 2195 28.45 -2.513 60.32% -1.913 0.3051
Power Corrodes the Spirit 440 33.41 -1.379 56.36% -1.743 0.276
Promising Farmlands 925 30.04 -2.487 56.76% -1.848 0.3664
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 159 39.09 1.678 85.53% -0.294 0.1129
Thriving Communities 434 32.72 -1.642 57.14% -1.735 0.3606
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.285 53.88% -1.968 0.2589
Unnatural Proliferation 486 35.55 -0.123 60.29% -1.628 0.4594
Untended Land Crumbles 456 31.84 -1.965 56.36% -1.912 0.1952

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 12121 42.22% 30.32 -0.839 77.19% -0.143 -1.2482
B 12069 43.2% 31.26 -0.375 78.37% 0.012 -1.1886
C 13265 42.48% 32.85 0.397 77.91% 0.043 -1.3899
D 11961 42.89% 31.82 -0.123 78.25% -0.009 -1.2029
E 3362 46.52% 35.86 1.053 77.48% 0.158 -1.1496
F 4797 41.43% 34.18 0.426 78.72% 0.01 -1.2472
G 4269 42.48% 33.69 0.351 79.41% 0.069 -1.1807
H 4628 39.98% 33.97 0.218 78.41% -0.118 -1.3768

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1957 0.0% 18.65 -4.892 71.03% -2.065 -0.0094
Not Using Events or Tokens 6153 37.77% 23.53 -2.933 79.44% -0.109 0.1076
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1107 14.08% 31.96 0.962 90.79% 0.446 -0.2484
Start of Game Growth 1581 15.79% 33.0 1.043 90.51% 0.402 -0.0628
Unlimited Undo 3856 32.46% 34.23 0.97 85.14% 0.341 -0.0792
Using Tokens but Not Events 4511 34.61% 35.13 0.743 81.6% 0.133 0.0811

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3915 22.35 28.81%
II 12866 30.83 74.34%
III 11709 34.33 89.99%
IV 4746 37.51 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 734
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8392
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6985
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3858
Lose: Invader deck ran out 382
Lose: Adversary condition 2065
Win: Sacrifice victory 96
Lose: Scenario condition 518
Win: Scenario condition 448
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4041
Lose: Spirit destroyed 276

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-06 02:18:48 (Pacific Time)