Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 91 24.18% 25.66 87.91% 0.35 0.0728 -0.512
Blitz 0 412 46.75% 28.42 67.23% -0.656 -0.4781 -0.302
Dahan Insurrection 4 403 30.03% 50.78 72.95% 0.689 0.2949 -0.07
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.725 0.0712 -0.072
Elemental Invocation 1 127 52.38% 24.31 73.23% 0.537 1.2563 -0.963
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1744 24.21% 39.74 63.59% -0.565 -1.2051 -0.602
Powers Long Forgotten 1 161 53.16% 29.88 72.67% -0.307 0.3302 -1.036
Rituals of Terror 3 138 42.75% 45.72 82.61% -0.713 -0.5618 0.899
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.246 1.3258 0.597
Second Wave 0 1801 40.19% 31.16 78.62% -0.004 0.0628 0.279
The Great River 3 1286 53.12% 31.66 55.21% -1.078 0.1706 -1.589
Varied Terrains 2 42 45.24% 29.17 59.52% -1.118 -0.4848 -0.325
Ward the Shores 2 263 43.85% 32.19 65.02% -1.004 0.0859 -0.329

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1393 32.35 60.66% -0.072 0.1584 -0.406
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1539 34.45 61.47% 0.219 0.1602 -0.176
All Things Weaken 903 34.66 57.14% 0.032 0.4093 -0.347
Attenuated Essence 52 29.19 50.0% -0.46 -0.3799 -1.52
Back Against the Wall 1427 31.58 58.16% -0.149 -0.1003 -0.61
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 41 25.39 41.46% -0.175 0.0217 -1.06
Burn Brightest Before the End 45 30.38 44.44% -0.158 0.0348 -0.384
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1378 30.09 56.6% -0.569 -0.1561 -0.383
Downward Spiral 3218 28.57 63.49% -0.069 0.1746 -0.395
Erosion of Will 1370 31.25 56.64% -0.399 -0.0908 -0.607
Intensifying Exploitation 21 25.9 47.62% 0.02 0.2987 -1.678
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 395 39.61 80.25% 0.765 0.2584 0.171
Memory Fades to Dust 3079 28.23 58.82% -0.123 0.2207 -0.447
Power Corrodes the Spirit 832 33.71 57.21% 0.292 0.5285 -0.378
Promising Farmlands 1317 30.23 55.66% -0.222 0.2314 -0.505
Shattered Fragments of Power 42 36.38 69.05% 0.811 0.8634 0.138
Slow Dissolution of Will 33 30.58 48.48% -0.213 0.1773 -1.001
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 281 38.31 84.7% -0.395 -1.1056 0.554
The Border of Life and Death 13 39.38 84.62% 0.831 0.4545 0.662
Thriving Communities 862 32.57 55.57% -0.145 0.2026 -0.508
Thriving Crops 19 30.32 68.42% 0.083 -0.1178 -0.226
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.817
Unnatural Proliferation 948 36.21 59.6% 0.349 0.5443 -0.284
Untended Land Crumbles 919 31.93 55.71% 0.081 0.3483 -0.505

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 18305 42.05% 30.3 75.92% -0.071 0.687 -0.061
B 18026 41.98% 30.96 76.69% -0.317 0.4213 -0.026
C 19654 41.63% 32.55 76.65% 0.132 0.7193 0.181
D 17407 42.33% 31.15 75.89% -0.111 0.6052 -0.155
E 7197 43.89% 34.11 74.34% -0.086 0.4888 -0.009
F 8491 40.51% 33.95 77.86% -0.044 0.6323 0.075
G 7147 40.83% 32.75 78.33% 0.23 0.8898 0.119
H 7648 39.33% 33.35 76.78% 0.288 0.8635 -0.11

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2699 0.0% 18.72 70.88% -0.369 0.401 -0.509
Not Using Events or Tokens 9025 34.75% 23.86 79.12% 0.156 0.5306 -0.294
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1938 11.11% 32.07 90.71% 0.161 -0.4768 -0.201
Start of Game Growth 2645 14.23% 32.68 89.79% 0.255 -0.0561 0.926
Unlimited Undo 6446 30.15% 33.64 84.47% 0.104 0.0808 1.039
Using Tokens but Not Events 7071 30.88% 34.37 81.57% 0.065 0.0588 0.512

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7197 20.44 25.51%
II 19642 31.01 74.16%
III 17934 34.76 90.19%
IV 7216 38.06 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1836
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15892
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14128
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7135
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1141
Lose: Invader deck ran out 531
Lose: Adversary condition 3243
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 763
Win: Scenario condition 630
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6134
Lose: Spirit destroyed 409

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)