Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 76 26.32% 26.46 89.47% 0.308 0.1244 -0.239
Blitz 0 387 46.67% 29.1 68.99% -0.069 0.2211 -0.328
Dahan Insurrection 4 354 32.27% 51.77 72.6% 0.867 0.6884 -0.074
Despicable Theft 2 88 40.91% 32.11 77.27% -0.572 0.0829 -0.097
Elemental Invocation 1 116 53.04% 23.78 72.41% -1.098 -0.2721 -1.292
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1676 24.66% 40.29 64.32% -0.093 -0.5928 -0.643
Powers Long Forgotten 1 157 53.25% 30.08 73.25% 0.043 0.453 -1.138
Rituals of Terror 3 131 41.22% 47.12 84.73% 0.35 0.2337 1.017
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 67 74.24% 31.01 68.66% -0.024 0.7511 0.552
Second Wave 0 1704 40.84% 31.45 79.28% -0.049 0.067 0.206
The Great River 3 1198 54.19% 32.32 56.51% -1.325 0.1138 -1.581
Varied Terrains 2 31 54.84% 34.13 70.97% -0.18 0.3125 -0.236
Ward the Shores 2 241 44.96% 32.67 66.8% -0.218 0.695 -0.324

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1343 32.59 61.21% -0.698 -0.0331 -0.517
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1489 34.43 61.52% -0.247 0.2166 -0.305
All Things Weaken 858 34.87 57.93% -0.161 0.6517 -0.453
Attenuated Essence 13 30.23 53.85% -0.584 0.0613 -1.028
Back Against the Wall 1383 31.77 58.42% -0.522 0.0249 -0.697
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 19.38 25.0% -0.378 0.5411 -0.746
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 21.27 18.18% -1.907 -1.1146 -0.4
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1340 30.18 57.16% -0.177 0.6796 -0.505
Downward Spiral 3121 28.65 63.76% -0.191 0.4879 -0.571
Erosion of Will 1320 31.45 57.27% -0.671 0.136 -0.715
Intensifying Exploitation 6 20.33 33.33% -0.875 0.0695 -0.927
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 375 40.29 80.27% 0.72 0.4662 -0.021
Memory Fades to Dust 2979 28.34 59.01% -0.594 0.233 -0.579
Power Corrodes the Spirit 794 33.9 57.43% -0.084 0.5549 -0.541
Promising Farmlands 1287 30.35 55.87% -0.353 0.5422 -0.658
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 39.77 69.23% 0.455 1.1035 0.267
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 25.63 25.0% -0.876 0.1063 -0.918
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 275 38.76 85.82% 0.568 0.0762 0.498
The Border of Life and Death 3 42.33 100.0% 0.79 0.9958 0.42
Thriving Communities 807 32.53 56.13% -0.841 0.0404 -0.637
Thriving Crops 4 20.0 50.0% -0.81 -0.2579
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.9
Unnatural Proliferation 903 36.3 59.91% -0.69 -0.0237 -0.398
Untended Land Crumbles 872 32.2 56.31% -0.165 0.5672 -0.611

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17444 42.41% 30.58 76.76% 0.019 0.9235 -0.089
B 17177 42.53% 31.38 77.86% -0.006 0.7926 -0.012
C 18683 42.16% 32.95 77.38% 0.075 0.7246 0.142
D 16543 42.55% 31.6 77.14% -0.174 0.6767 -0.115
E 6596 44.72% 34.96 76.09% 0.078 0.7757 0.095
F 8055 40.44% 34.29 78.87% 0.139 0.9096 0.049
G 6748 41.03% 32.98 79.0% -0.083 0.69 0.081
H 7218 39.77% 33.62 77.4% -0.027 0.6934 -0.137

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2622 0.0% 18.83 71.17% -1.213 -0.012 -0.619
Not Using Events or Tokens 8588 35.59% 24.03 79.93% 0.642 0.8858 -0.313
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1815 11.0% 32.55 92.73% 0.432 -0.1447 -0.505
Start of Game Growth 2461 13.9% 33.26 91.91% 0.727 0.2676 1.164
Unlimited Undo 6080 30.34% 34.02 85.67% -0.166 -0.3443 0.992
Using Tokens but Not Events 6699 31.59% 34.94 82.79% 0.542 0.5024 0.567

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6342 21.84 28.0%
II 18743 31.08 74.3%
III 17259 34.71 90.23%
IV 6937 37.98 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1776
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15301
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13524
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6859
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 404
Lose: Invader deck ran out 518
Lose: Adversary condition 3121
Win: Sacrifice victory 143
Lose: Scenario condition 740
Win: Scenario condition 583
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5921
Lose: Spirit destroyed 391

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)