Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 229 38.43% 30.63 1.999 86.9% -0.12 0.4475
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 213 42.45% 34.15 3.371 85.45% 0.315 1.0034
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 268 54.85% 37.72 4.754 73.13% -0.392 0.6546
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 295 59.66% 39.64 1.502 72.88% -1.552 -0.164
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 187 82.35% 38.37 4.796 49.73% -0.586 1.1173
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 74 81.08% 40.35 6.096 51.35% -0.423 1.1756
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 522 76.63% 42.0 7.93 41.19% -0.851 1.3396
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1189 33.68% 25.26 -1.039 86.71% 0.183 0.4709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1027 36.09% 30.85 1.175 89.97% 1.057 0.8399
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1257 40.06% 39.31 3.998 87.43% 0.302 0.5149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1384 41.6% 45.46 4.436 86.71% -0.556 -0.0593
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1144 41.66% 48.28 9.06 86.19% 0.807 1.3441
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 555 52.97% 51.53 12.852 72.25% 0.59 1.769
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1408 71.01% 50.42 13.543 63.21% -0.032 1.5404
The Kingdom of England 0 1 873 33.33% 25.02 -2.083 84.31% -0.044 0.3705
The Kingdom of England 1 3 537 40.79% 31.97 1.143 79.89% -0.796 -0.0823
The Kingdom of England 2 4 737 45.49% 34.39 3.983 75.71% 0.229 1.2573
The Kingdom of England 3 6 924 59.98% 36.69 2.913 60.06% -1.362 0.2961
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1188 51.31% 44.76 6.876 68.77% -1.179 0.4393
The Kingdom of England 5 9 238 67.38% 44.74 9.826 51.68% -0.572 1.4832
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1809 63.95% 43.66 4.979 39.3% -2.439 -0.0338
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 413 39.42% 29.13 -2.289 83.29% -0.961 -0.1579
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 314 56.45% 30.82 -3.149 73.89% -1.613 -0.7404
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 667 46.32% 34.68 6.542 54.57% 0.423 2.6942
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 592 58.71% 40.08 4.937 54.39% -0.897 1.4346
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 377 55.59% 42.73 3.897 50.93% -1.015 1.392
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 190 61.58% 49.92 6.358 56.32% -0.5 1.3625
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1895 53.93% 56.13 12.937 59.95% -0.863 1.4513
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 22 31.82% 29.55 -0.883 90.91% 0.278 0.1264
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 31 19.35% 32.94 1.067 87.1% -0.172 0.7138
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 37 37.84% 35.05 1.545 78.38% -0.79 0.1859
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 46 36.96% 47.91 8.018 84.78% 0.246 0.9653
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 52 59.62% 47.13 8.253 84.62% 0.54 1.8325
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 43 58.14% 49.47 8.077 72.09% -0.695 0.6998
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 166 74.1% 53.6 13.084 64.46% -0.52 1.1193
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 533 34.86% 24.87 -1.45 87.43% 0.237 0.3691
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 461 40.8% 29.11 -0.995 85.68% -0.111 -0.15
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 660 42.68% 33.22 2.068 85.3% -0.472 0.0074
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 736 55.01% 40.74 5.778 81.66% 0.604 0.8769
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 489 58.44% 42.45 7.232 78.94% 0.362 1.1995
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 208 64.9% 43.74 7.857 73.08% -0.47 0.4033
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1148 66.61% 46.45 8.814 68.21% -0.366 0.8537
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 179 31.28% 27.34 -1.827 89.39% 0.733 0.5989
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 167 48.19% 31.74 -0.777 76.05% -0.455 0.3229
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 150 48.0% 40.19 8.087 88.67% 0.174 0.6517
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 183 61.75% 41.2 2.679 67.21% -0.925 0.2538
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 164 66.46% 44.54 12.051 67.07% 0.03 1.366
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 97 67.01% 50.56 -4.114 59.79% -0.775 1.0751
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 488 84.43% 47.75 13.433 37.3% -0.787 1.1229

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 44 22.73% 26.07 90.91% 0.255 0.364 -0.311
Blitz 0 365 47.31% 27.98 68.49% -0.488 -0.2207 -0.48
Dahan Insurrection 4 341 32.83% 51.35 71.85% 0.745 1.0776 -0.275
Despicable Theft 2 81 43.21% 32.53 79.01% 0.527 0.7773 -0.458
Elemental Invocation 1 98 60.2% 24.24 73.47% -0.332 0.3165 -1.346
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1527 23.9% 40.56 65.62% -0.323 -0.1574 -0.627
Powers Long Forgotten 1 150 53.06% 30.03 73.33% -0.107 0.2189 -1.49
Rituals of Terror 3 127 41.73% 47.46 84.25% 0.383 0.2738 0.845
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 64 74.6% 30.95 68.75% -0.728 -0.0706 0.575
Second Wave 0 1604 40.68% 31.63 79.49% -0.629 -0.1586 0.184
The Great River 3 1058 54.08% 32.73 57.84% -0.674 0.8266 -1.542
Varied Terrains 2 11 81.82% 36.91 72.73% 0.267 0.8029
Ward the Shores 2 226 45.54% 32.99 67.7% 0.161 1.3482 -0.021

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1243 32.8 62.03% -0.967 0.8647 -0.62
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1381 34.37 61.48% -1.465 0.189 -0.43
All Things Weaken 756 34.91 58.73% -1.609 0.3676 -0.568
Back Against the Wall 1281 31.93 58.94% -1.574 0.2843 -0.787
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1249 30.23 57.49% -1.288 0.6867 -0.536
Downward Spiral 2927 28.65 63.55% -1.898 0.0039 -0.728
Erosion of Will 1234 31.45 57.86% -1.439 0.6048 -0.808
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 338 39.92 78.7% 0.086 0.6585 -0.236
Memory Fades to Dust 2780 28.38 58.99% -1.758 0.2216 -0.675
Power Corrodes the Spirit 705 34.32 57.59% -1.66 0.2319 -0.653
Promising Farmlands 1193 30.23 55.91% -1.8 0.2385 -0.83
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 248 39.06 85.48% -0.603 -0.1624 0.337
Thriving Communities 716 32.73 56.56% -1.609 0.3551 -0.754
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.994
Unnatural Proliferation 803 36.72 61.64% -1.288 0.6178 -0.436
Untended Land Crumbles 773 32.29 56.92% -1.613 0.4215 -0.721

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16047 42.71% 30.72 77.1% 0.199 0.967 -0.157
B 15830 42.83% 31.61 78.34% 0.198 0.8905 -0.02
C 17305 42.41% 33.07 77.68% -0.216 0.3488 0.039
D 15291 43.08% 31.98 78.07% -0.343 0.4251 -0.033
E 5683 45.32% 35.74 77.78% 0.056 0.6554 0.176
F 7140 40.78% 34.23 79.19% -0.095 0.6144 0.039
G 6104 41.55% 33.24 79.7% 0.337 1.0633 0.103
H 6495 40.12% 33.82 77.88% -0.116 0.5743 -0.133

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2473 0.0% 18.74 71.65% -1.587 0.4243 -0.71
Not Using Events or Tokens 7924 36.67% 23.78 79.77% 0.17 0.3842 -0.285
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1655 11.23% 32.4 92.75% 1.139 1.0457 -0.518
Start of Game Growth 2261 13.93% 33.08 91.99% 0.408 -0.2998 0.995
Unlimited Undo 5566 30.19% 34.36 86.35% 0.079 -0.6212 0.885
Using Tokens but Not Events 6164 31.69% 35.44 83.06% 0.208 0.1624 0.51

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5435 22.6 29.14%
II 17264 31.02 74.36%
III 15889 34.59 90.13%
IV 6397 37.83 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1584
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14059
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 12453
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6322
Lose: Invader deck ran out 485
Lose: Adversary condition 2897
Win: Sacrifice victory 133
Lose: Scenario condition 665
Win: Scenario condition 563
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5467
Lose: Spirit destroyed 357

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)