Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 87 24.14% 26.05 88.51% 0.363 0.1954 -0.177
Blitz 0 394 46.86% 28.87 69.04% 0.024 0.1734 -0.32
Dahan Insurrection 4 376 31.42% 51.93 72.61% 0.422 0.2093 -0.119
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.777 -0.0602 -0.061
Elemental Invocation 1 124 52.85% 23.87 72.58% -0.496 0.2552 -1.264
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1713 24.41% 40.09 63.98% -0.421 -1.0297 -0.63
Powers Long Forgotten 1 159 53.21% 29.86 72.96% -0.196 0.303 -1.131
Rituals of Terror 3 135 42.96% 46.39 83.7% -0.073 0.0345 0.87
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.196 1.2499 0.594
Second Wave 0 1778 40.26% 31.16 78.57% -0.142 -0.0619 0.212
The Great River 3 1244 53.23% 31.83 55.79% -1.281 0.113 -1.584
Varied Terrains 2 41 46.34% 29.88 60.98% -1.118 -0.5363 -0.366
Ward the Shores 2 260 43.97% 32.06 65.0% -1.074 0.1277 -0.335

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1378 32.41 60.67% -0.148 0.1184 -0.462
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1520 34.36 61.45% 0.176 0.1832 -0.247
All Things Weaken 888 34.7 57.32% -0.174 0.2621 -0.408
Attenuated Essence 34 28.35 44.12% -0.489 -0.2984 -1.212
Back Against the Wall 1405 31.73 58.22% -0.266 -0.125 -0.635
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 30 25.17 40.0% -0.069 0.3147 -1.049
Burn Brightest Before the End 33 29.64 45.45% -0.709 -0.4157 -0.042
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1361 30.08 56.72% -0.515 -0.0128 -0.429
Downward Spiral 3186 28.6 63.59% 0.069 0.3981 -0.457
Erosion of Will 1353 31.18 56.76% -0.567 -0.1819 -0.639
Intensifying Exploitation 15 24.53 46.67% -0.363 0.004 -1.579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 386 39.95 80.05% 0.666 0.146 0.082
Memory Fades to Dust 3040 28.29 59.05% -0.026 0.4393 -0.495
Power Corrodes the Spirit 821 33.89 57.73% 0.644 0.9342 -0.447
Promising Farmlands 1301 30.21 55.65% -0.376 0.193 -0.578
Shattered Fragments of Power 34 37.5 73.53% 0.952 1.1044 0.586
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 29.76 44.0% -0.414 0.0888 -1.014
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 280 38.28 84.64% -0.714 -1.3666 0.501
The Border of Life and Death 5 35.4 80.0% 0.54 0.3615 0.445
Thriving Communities 847 32.6 55.96% -0.222 0.2392 -0.565
Thriving Crops 14 22.57 57.14% -0.454 -0.4071 -1.061
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.833
Unnatural Proliferation 930 36.27 59.78% -0.197 0.0944 -0.327
Untended Land Crumbles 898 32.06 56.35% 0.083 0.404 -0.543

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17966 42.24% 30.39 76.21% -0.033 0.8037 -0.057
B 17700 42.08% 31.11 77.13% -0.264 0.5156 -0.019
C 19279 41.71% 32.67 76.96% 0.081 0.7335 0.176
D 17133 42.51% 31.27 76.19% -0.166 0.6321 -0.179
E 6965 44.37% 34.43 74.93% 0.11 0.7348 0.024
F 8320 40.51% 34.08 78.19% -0.097 0.6216 0.051
G 6969 40.95% 32.78 78.56% 0.053 0.7962 0.112
H 7491 39.48% 33.51 77.21% 0.339 0.9844 -0.094

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2666 0.0% 18.74 70.82% -0.894 -0.0136 -0.59
Not Using Events or Tokens 8846 35.06% 23.91 79.38% 0.358 0.6836 -0.249
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1892 11.31% 32.42 91.49% 0.597 0.0564 -0.321
Start of Game Growth 2574 14.28% 32.98 90.64% 0.055 -0.2645 1.071
Unlimited Undo 6299 30.21% 33.8 84.92% -0.105 -0.1188 0.986
Using Tokens but Not Events 6916 31.08% 34.64 82.32% 0.378 0.3207 0.606

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6870 20.97 26.38%
II 19301 31.03 74.18%
III 17671 34.74 90.19%
IV 7119 38.02 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1812
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15656
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13902
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7038
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 874
Lose: Invader deck ran out 526
Lose: Adversary condition 3197
Win: Sacrifice victory 146
Lose: Scenario condition 752
Win: Scenario condition 607
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6055
Lose: Spirit destroyed 396

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)