Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 92 25.0% 25.39 86.96% 0.144 -0.1118 -0.509
Blitz 0 412 46.75% 28.42 67.23% -0.61 -0.4128 -0.298
Dahan Insurrection 4 403 30.03% 50.78 72.95% 0.772 0.3296 -0.066
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.767 0.0448 -0.072
Elemental Invocation 1 127 52.38% 24.31 73.23% 0.558 1.2611 -0.959
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1747 24.17% 39.67 63.48% -0.565 -1.2092 -0.616
Powers Long Forgotten 1 161 53.16% 29.88 72.67% -0.286 0.3497 -1.035
Rituals of Terror 3 138 42.75% 45.72 82.61% -0.739 -0.6383 0.904
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.273 1.2824 0.589
Second Wave 0 1802 40.22% 31.15 78.58% -0.056 0.0103 0.285
The Great River 3 1288 53.04% 31.67 55.28% -1.056 0.1618 -1.589
Varied Terrains 2 42 45.24% 29.17 59.52% -1.117 -0.4942 -0.323
Ward the Shores 2 263 43.85% 32.19 65.02% -1.025 0.0596 -0.33

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1393 32.35 60.66% -0.163 0.0793 -0.404
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1539 34.45 61.47% 0.34 0.2622 -0.174
All Things Weaken 903 34.66 57.14% -0.001 0.391 -0.342
Attenuated Essence 53 28.66 49.06% -0.681 -0.5741 -1.511
Back Against the Wall 1430 31.57 58.11% -0.241 -0.183 -0.614
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 42 26.24 42.86% -0.203 -0.0009 -1.054
Burn Brightest Before the End 45 30.38 44.44% -0.023 0.1876 -0.383
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1378 30.09 56.6% -0.573 -0.149 -0.381
Downward Spiral 3225 28.55 63.47% -0.021 0.2148 -0.397
Erosion of Will 1370 31.25 56.64% -0.31 -0.0004 -0.597
Intensifying Exploitation 21 25.9 47.62% 0.073 0.3604 -1.677
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 396 39.51 80.05% 0.534 0.04 0.176
Memory Fades to Dust 3081 28.23 58.81% -0.142 0.1946 -0.449
Power Corrodes the Spirit 832 33.71 57.21% 0.284 0.5042 -0.374
Promising Farmlands 1318 30.26 55.69% -0.34 0.1131 -0.501
Shattered Fragments of Power 44 36.52 68.18% 0.817 0.8678 -0.087
Slow Dissolution of Will 34 30.35 47.06% -0.248 0.1508 -1.0
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 281 38.31 84.7% -0.51 -1.2204 0.556
The Border of Life and Death 13 39.38 84.62% 0.831 0.4958 0.66
Thriving Communities 864 32.54 55.44% -0.263 0.1002 -0.504
Thriving Crops 19 30.32 68.42% 0.192 -0.0058 -0.23
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.816
Unnatural Proliferation 950 36.16 59.47% 0.22 0.4351 -0.279
Untended Land Crumbles 919 31.93 55.71% 0.022 0.3041 -0.499

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 18331 42.07% 30.29 75.86% -0.12 0.6203 -0.064
B 18049 41.99% 30.96 76.69% -0.315 0.4105 -0.029
C 19677 41.62% 32.54 76.63% 0.128 0.7103 0.184
D 17427 42.33% 31.14 75.88% -0.133 0.5782 -0.155
E 7211 43.82% 34.09 74.29% -0.061 0.5046 -0.009
F 8503 40.49% 33.94 77.85% -0.007 0.6635 0.079
G 7157 40.84% 32.73 78.27% 0.261 0.9128 0.117
H 7659 39.28% 33.34 76.76% 0.268 0.8386 -0.109

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2704 0.0% 18.72 70.89% -0.287 0.4895 -0.504
Not Using Events or Tokens 9038 34.72% 23.86 79.12% 0.119 0.4984 -0.286
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1942 11.11% 32.05 90.73% 0.225 -0.3923 -0.19
Start of Game Growth 2653 14.26% 32.67 89.79% 0.246 -0.1027 0.922
Unlimited Undo 6462 30.16% 33.63 84.43% 0.053 0.0463 1.028
Using Tokens but Not Events 7085 30.88% 34.31 81.47% -0.031 -0.0418 0.505

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7217 20.4 25.48%
II 19664 31.01 74.15%
III 17957 34.76 90.18%
IV 7220 38.07 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1839
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15910
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14141
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7139
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1159
Lose: Invader deck ran out 532
Lose: Adversary condition 3246
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 763
Win: Scenario condition 630
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6143
Lose: Spirit destroyed 409

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)