Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 48 18.75% 24.54 -2.506 70.83% -0.341 0.0626
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 37 32.43% 29.65 3.527 67.57% 0.482 0.5478
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 54 31.48% 33.98 2.468 74.07% -0.026 0.3673
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 59 47.46% 39.53 6.25 84.75% 0.67 0.8614
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 72 44.44% 36.68 6.886 58.33% -0.4 0.3653
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 50 56.0% 34.44 8.162 48.0% -0.496 0.6722
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 192 61.78% 38.01 1.557 45.83% -1.631 0.2701
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 463 34.77% 27.02 -4.795 75.16% -0.647 -0.2659
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 378 45.09% 29.97 2.894 73.81% 0.003 0.3993
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 468 51.93% 36.04 4.083 70.94% 0.141 0.9213
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 514 61.06% 36.25 3.583 63.23% -0.405 0.6452
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 354 78.53% 35.0 2.906 46.89% -0.665 0.8188
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 159 74.21% 35.4 1.703 43.4% -0.965 0.6295
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1015 68.38% 34.68 0.13 33.6% -1.735 -0.0029
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1888 33.06% 23.2 -3.15 78.87% -0.321 -0.0621
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1810 32.66% 28.12 2.999 81.38% 1.068 1.0388
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 2357 37.37% 36.63 6.86 80.53% 0.912 0.8785
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2100 41.31% 41.52 6.571 78.43% 0.282 0.7259
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1716 40.05% 45.48 5.924 80.54% -0.207 0.0476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1019 48.32% 46.52 8.568 66.83% -0.029 0.5244
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2605 65.07% 41.83 2.336 52.59% -1.231 0.0516
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1458 31.8% 22.52 -2.256 74.28% -0.417 -0.1208
The Kingdom of England 1 3 911 39.42% 28.55 2.896 70.25% 0.287 0.7772
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1227 43.91% 30.83 2.973 67.24% -0.054 0.4839
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1557 55.21% 32.38 3.77 52.28% -0.744 0.5115
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1676 50.27% 40.47 4.387 60.98% -0.525 0.4639
The Kingdom of England 5 9 453 63.23% 36.06 6.995 39.07% -0.684 0.8744
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3239 56.85% 35.27 4.517 32.39% -1.389 0.492
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 696 39.91% 25.98 -5.93 72.84% -0.777 -0.2935
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 549 51.84% 26.86 -0.289 64.48% -0.234 0.4953
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1069 44.69% 30.98 0.102 48.08% -1.273 -0.1421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 900 56.01% 38.03 2.082 51.56% -1.236 0.1491
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 550 54.38% 41.63 7.943 51.09% -0.616 0.7795
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 360 59.44% 44.33 3.566 49.17% -1.05 0.0461
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3148 51.88% 50.59 11.994 53.27% -0.556 0.8389
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 347 26.8% 23.11 -3.152 69.16% -0.98 -0.9322
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 288 32.52% 24.75 1.823 59.38% 0.138 0.3843
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 369 43.36% 30.1 -0.825 65.58% -0.437 0.0608
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 445 42.92% 40.51 3.395 71.46% -0.496 -0.2999
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 359 50.42% 37.53 6.439 62.95% 0.213 0.8702
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 522 51.72% 41.44 9.119 62.45% 0.144 0.5831
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1642 53.75% 39.86 7.639 46.53% -1.009 0.1515
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 883 32.3% 22.45 -3.888 77.35% -0.629 -0.5036
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 706 41.97% 27.06 3.703 78.47% 0.773 0.9067
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1038 42.33% 30.62 -0.286 78.13% -0.135 0.143
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1100 52.52% 37.98 4.094 75.55% 0.174 0.4842
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 785 55.88% 38.36 0.363 71.97% -0.646 0.1297
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 311 63.55% 39.59 -2.852 63.99% -0.864 0.0459
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1958 61.65% 40.7 3.234 59.7% -0.704 0.2507
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 441 31.44% 23.26 -1.682 72.56% -0.029 0.0413
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 315 46.5% 25.69 -4.931 61.27% -0.879 -0.1425
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 313 42.95% 35.12 2.313 77.64% 0.153 0.6538
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 384 57.29% 36.77 2.327 59.38% -0.59 0.4558
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 289 63.67% 40.23 5.558 61.25% -0.328 0.5058
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 159 65.41% 44.15 0.409 50.94% -1.082 0.6066
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1097 68.13% 35.53 5.77 27.53% -1.349 0.1128

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 253 21.34% 23.69 84.58% 0.755 0.4932 -0.183
Blitz 0 638 42.72% 25.65 63.17% 0.334 0.6981 -0.218
Dahan Insurrection 4 719 25.78% 41.58 61.06% 0.25 0.1183 -0.194
Despicable Theft 2 175 40.57% 28.22 64.57% -0.722 -0.0978 -0.797
Elemental Invocation 1 302 41.53% 28.31 69.54% -0.34 0.6089 -1.714
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2378 21.43% 38.53 64.72% 0.249 -0.2115 -0.247
Powers Long Forgotten 1 268 46.97% 26.06 63.06% -0.318 0.6847 -1.205
Rituals of Terror 3 232 38.36% 38.82 70.69% 0.056 0.1927 0.758
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 121 66.67% 26.68 60.33% 0.083 0.9659 0.587
Second Wave 0 2444 39.23% 29.66 75.9% 0.51 0.56 0.386
The Great River 3 2210 47.55% 26.42 46.38% -1.154 0.1375 -1.616
Varied Terrains 2 123 37.4% 21.09 47.97% -0.538 0.4014 -0.465
Ward the Shores 2 358 41.08% 28.51 59.5% -0.258 0.7004 -0.619

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1859 31.65 59.12% -0.08 0.0968 0.129
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1956 34.18 60.89% 0.69 0.5858 0.43
All Things Weaken 1365 32.49 54.36% 0.157 0.3854 0.123
Attenuated Essence 372 32.4 60.75% 0.838 0.8731 0.313
Back Against the Wall 1861 31.53 58.03% -0.178 -0.1996 -0.082
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 362 29.1 51.38% 0.115 0.2198 -0.151
Burn Brightest Before the End 367 33.73 53.95% 0.018 0.1574 -0.025
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1820 29.0 53.96% -0.092 0.2667 0.057
Downward Spiral 4431 26.6 59.22% -0.041 0.0421 0.047
Erosion of Will 1805 30.36 55.07% 0.315 0.5696 -0.06
Intensifying Exploitation 341 29.66 47.8% 0.274 0.5304 -0.181
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 610 36.67 75.08% 0.178 -0.2252 0.539
Memory Fades to Dust 4241 26.51 54.99% -0.695 -0.4161 0.068
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1307 31.36 53.25% 0.004 0.2757 0.014
Promising Farmlands 1752 29.83 54.91% 0.531 0.8235 -0.008
Shattered Fragments of Power 370 35.69 56.49% -0.202 -0.0676 0.251
Slow Dissolution of Will 351 29.01 48.15% 0.326 0.6879 -0.104
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 422 36.17 78.2% 0.558 -0.0016 0.845
The Border of Life and Death 111 39.22 74.77% 0.608 0.2418 0.52
Thriving Communities 1356 31.17 54.42% -0.049 0.2688 0.101
Thriving Crops 187 30.87 60.43% 0.187 0.0641 -0.012
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.409
Unnatural Proliferation 1455 34.76 56.98% -0.176 -0.0855 0.19
Untended Land Crumbles 1369 30.23 52.96% -0.287 -0.0183 0.066

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 28584 39.48% 27.08 67.54% -0.158 0.9909 -0.117
B 27309 40.15% 27.93 68.87% -0.138 0.9303 -0.091
C 29853 39.61% 29.89 69.58% -0.166 0.7525 0.15
D 26236 40.5% 28.63 68.97% -0.087 0.9765 -0.083
E 12571 41.53% 30.77 67.42% 0.097 1.0512 -0.08
F 13701 39.22% 31.01 71.44% 0.078 1.081 0.125
G 11186 39.51% 29.94 72.52% 0.307 1.2756 0.062
H 11825 38.53% 31.2 72.17% 0.08 1.038 0.02

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4170 0.0% 15.65 58.82% -0.499 0.2829 -0.659
Not Using Events or Tokens 14410 32.93% 21.06 68.33% 0.142 0.4634 -0.344
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2730 11.28% 31.3 85.35% 1.037 0.396 -0.063
Start of Game Growth 4055 17.12% 31.87 84.12% 0.489 -0.0895 1.033
Unlimited Undo 9850 28.91% 31.34 78.19% 0.19 -0.022 0.948
Using Tokens but Not Events 10807 28.65% 29.92 74.07% 0.201 0.1183 0.277

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16573 12.75 15.6%
II 28302 30.01 71.74%
III 25516 34.87 89.59%
IV 10342 38.76 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2586
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22481
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19731
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10237
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 9161
Lose: Invader deck ran out 757
Lose: Adversary condition 4471
Win: Sacrifice victory 201
Lose: Scenario condition 979
Win: Scenario condition 816
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8733
Lose: Spirit destroyed 580

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-09 13:08:08 (Pacific Time)