Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 183 36.61% 29.62 -0.225 85.79% 0.022 0.3115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 166 42.17% 33.96 2.071 87.95% 0.103 0.5166
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 194 51.55% 37.8 3.919 76.29% -0.766 0.1168
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 191 63.35% 39.23 4.693 73.3% -0.899 0.3429
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 147 81.63% 37.52 4.15 46.94% -1.779 -0.2823
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 62 80.65% 40.23 5.898 51.61% -1.552 0.3867
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 365 75.34% 41.32 5.712 41.1% -2.209 -0.1658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 957 34.11% 24.84 -2.105 87.04% -0.15 -0.1083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 788 35.94% 30.24 0.441 89.97% 0.242 0.2237
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 991 40.27% 38.99 4.669 87.99% 0.002 0.0159
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1062 43.37% 45.31 7.815 86.25% -0.167 0.1167
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 964 41.61% 48.2 9.239 86.1% -0.244 0.1149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 465 55.7% 50.64 10.568 70.32% -1.05 -0.2255
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1157 71.12% 50.27 10.432 63.61% -1.35 -0.1111
The Kingdom of England 0 1 699 33.68% 24.74 -2.171 85.12% -0.324 0.0062
The Kingdom of England 1 3 435 39.53% 32.12 1.436 80.46% -0.562 -0.0449
The Kingdom of England 2 4 585 45.69% 34.25 2.442 76.07% -0.864 0.109
The Kingdom of England 3 6 698 64.03% 35.55 3.179 57.31% -1.68 -0.1002
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1008 49.65% 44.91 7.237 69.74% -1.388 0.1065
The Kingdom of England 5 9 206 65.35% 44.86 7.626 52.43% -1.861 0.2088
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1430 62.72% 44.41 7.239 42.03% -2.508 -0.2639
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 349 40.35% 28.57 -0.784 82.81% -0.489 0.0228
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 241 59.49% 30.66 0.459 74.69% -0.707 0.1957
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 523 44.72% 33.72 1.794 52.39% -2.222 -0.0811
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 483 57.05% 40.29 5.238 54.87% -1.92 0.2786
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 318 54.89% 42.62 6.333 50.94% -2.111 0.0496
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 164 58.54% 49.25 9.572 56.1% -1.708 0.109
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1495 51.04% 55.84 12.837 60.87% -1.793 0.2979
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 443 34.78% 24.4 -2.367 88.71% 0.116 0.2048
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 373 40.82% 28.97 -0.096 86.6% 0.077 0.1122
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 512 42.91% 32.54 1.518 85.74% -0.076 0.162
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 638 55.94% 40.72 5.614 81.97% -0.25 0.0404
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 399 58.59% 42.28 6.313 79.45% -0.456 0.3247
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 175 66.86% 43.58 7.118 72.57% -0.742 0.4265
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 934 65.95% 45.63 8.03 68.31% -1.036 0.0864
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 133 30.83% 26.35 -2.089 87.22% -0.065 -0.1533
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 118 50.43% 30.31 -0.151 73.73% -0.873 -0.094
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 112 49.11% 39.58 4.503 88.39% 0.244 0.6555
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 131 58.78% 41.2 5.267 67.94% -1.1 0.1443
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 129 67.44% 43.44 6.678 65.12% -1.044 0.0643
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 68 69.12% 51.34 10.202 63.24% -1.354 0.6304
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 322 83.23% 46.32 8.044 38.51% -2.286 -0.4135

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 384 47.86% 26.71 -2.73 66.67% -0.807 -0.2409
Dahan Insurrection 4 413 36.25% 50.97 9.125 76.27% -0.304 0.096
Despicable Theft 2 56 41.07% 33.8 1.32 80.36% -0.494 -0.2199
Elemental Invocation 1 75 57.33% 23.64 -3.676 76.0% -0.414 0.0882
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1619 21.95% 40.77 2.818 67.7% -0.762 -0.3973
Powers Long Forgotten 1 175 55.23% 31.39 -0.223 75.43% -0.314 0.1323
Rituals of Terror 3 128 42.19% 41.66 5.042 78.91% -0.275 0.3703
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 70 69.57% 32.9 1.299 72.86% -0.604 0.0427
Second Wave 0 1584 45.04% 30.75 -0.439 77.21% -0.604 -0.1746
The Great River 3 777 53.81% 32.64 0.435 58.56% -1.661 -0.188
Ward the Shores 2 237 50.21% 31.79 0.033 65.4% -1.137 -0.1051

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1007 32.43 -1.291 62.56% -1.608 0.4613
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1093 34.1 -0.479 61.76% -1.663 0.2495
All Things Weaken 521 35.12 -0.549 60.46% -1.601 0.5583
Back Against the Wall 1033 32.02 -1.356 59.92% -1.764 0.3227
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1008 30.17 -2.469 57.54% -1.78 0.4419
Downward Spiral 2477 28.68 -2.258 64.15% -1.697 0.3244
Erosion of Will 1006 31.08 -1.891 58.35% -1.794 0.414
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 245 39.9 1.934 79.18% -0.566 0.1129
Memory Fades to Dust 2317 28.35 -2.541 60.08% -1.918 0.2971
Power Corrodes the Spirit 493 33.13 -1.523 55.78% -1.767 0.2537
Promising Farmlands 977 30.16 -2.444 56.6% -1.84 0.3678
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 183 38.84 1.645 85.79% -0.288 0.1233
Thriving Communities 485 32.64 -1.631 57.11% -1.713 0.3752
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.278 53.88% -1.965 0.2599
Unnatural Proliferation 546 35.44 -0.133 61.36% -1.574 0.5064
Untended Land Crumbles 524 31.65 -2.088 56.11% -1.926 0.176

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 12984 42.35% 30.41 -0.81 77.13% -0.139 -0.827
B 12904 43.03% 31.35 -0.354 78.32% 0.009 -0.7747
C 14117 42.45% 32.91 0.413 77.94% 0.054 -0.9586
D 12653 42.82% 31.83 -0.128 78.19% -0.005 -0.7825
E 3873 45.77% 35.77 0.969 77.2% 0.12 -0.7744
F 5294 41.51% 34.15 0.423 78.71% 0.028 -0.8132
G 4681 42.47% 33.5 0.278 79.3% 0.067 -0.7647
H 4990 40.42% 33.86 0.177 78.16% -0.11 -0.9495

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2063 0.0% 18.58 -4.926 70.92% -2.083 -0.0301
Not Using Events or Tokens 6545 37.36% 23.46 -2.946 79.47% -0.111 0.1037
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1163 13.68% 32.16 1.059 91.06% 0.447 -0.2398
Start of Game Growth 1662 15.98% 32.98 1.015 90.79% 0.442 -0.0274
Unlimited Undo 4148 32.09% 34.06 0.891 85.17% 0.344 -0.0786
Using Tokens but Not Events 4895 33.59% 35.27 0.783 81.94% 0.127 0.076

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4227 22.37 28.98%
II 13821 30.88 74.28%
III 12612 34.39 89.9%
IV 5088 37.55 99.55%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 831
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 9185
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7672
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4197
Lose: Invader deck ran out 410
Lose: Adversary condition 2223
Win: Sacrifice victory 99
Lose: Scenario condition 562
Win: Scenario condition 469
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4363
Lose: Spirit destroyed 296

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)