Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 249 38.55% 30.66 0.154 87.55% 0.439 0.9076
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 224 43.05% 33.86 -0.192 84.82% 0.397 0.628
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 278 54.32% 37.69 1.197 73.02% -1.073 0.1094
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 313 60.7% 39.28 0.407 71.25% -1.391 0.0324
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 201 82.59% 38.16 4.052 49.25% -1.242 0.1826
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 81.58% 40.42 -1.906 51.32% -0.704 1.4499
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 561 75.71% 41.58 6.83 39.57% -1.926 0.3559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1241 33.72% 25.3 -1.916 86.95% 0.506 0.4068
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1072 36.17% 30.88 0.084 89.83% 0.009 -0.2628
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1315 41.16% 39.23 2.174 87.07% -0.437 -0.2768
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1429 42.18% 45.34 5.863 86.49% -0.494 -0.1361
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1217 40.25% 48.47 9.479 86.52% -0.382 -0.0443
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 612 49.43% 52.23 13.618 74.51% 0.735 1.7119
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1478 71.26% 50.43 10.402 63.33% -0.764 0.7291
The Kingdom of England 0 1 918 33.6% 25.11 -0.571 83.99% -0.158 0.2993
The Kingdom of England 1 3 555 41.27% 31.91 -0.457 79.64% -1.02 -0.4336
The Kingdom of England 2 4 768 44.95% 34.65 5.18 76.43% 0.905 2.0546
The Kingdom of England 3 6 958 59.83% 36.73 2.548 60.13% -1.204 0.4059
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1223 51.19% 44.79 6.994 68.85% -1.155 0.2755
The Kingdom of England 5 9 250 67.76% 44.54 -0.017 51.2% -1.371 0.7671
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1873 63.96% 43.95 9.887 39.88% -1.508 0.9715
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 422 39.29% 29.19 0.259 83.65% 0.712 1.4296
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 330 56.31% 30.96 1.96 74.55% 0.313 1.4731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 694 46.52% 34.77 0.946 54.76% -1.404 0.6026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 606 59.11% 40.14 6.508 54.46% -0.538 1.6378
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 391 54.5% 43.35 14.627 52.17% 0.163 2.3314
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 204 61.76% 50.03 5.406 55.88% -1.128 0.6667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2002 54.62% 56.24 11.984 59.94% -1.315 0.8824
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 42 26.19% 28.64 -2.252 90.48% 0.083 -0.1624
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 49 27.08% 32.78 1.302 83.67% -0.335 0.6189
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 62 30.65% 38.23 5.131 87.1% 0.654 1.79
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 86 37.21% 46.87 5.386 82.56% -0.846 -0.0241
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 88 60.23% 45.22 5.209 77.27% -0.639 0.4524
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 88 67.05% 45.01 7.771 60.23% -0.439 0.8655
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 307 68.3% 52.64 9.574 61.56% -1.21 0.4301
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 566 34.77% 24.97 -0.509 87.63% 0.857 0.9144
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 474 40.95% 29.18 -0.774 85.65% 0.121 0.2261
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 690 42.27% 33.3 1.891 85.8% 0.303 0.582
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 764 54.82% 40.7 1.969 81.28% -1.119 -0.6982
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 520 57.64% 42.63 5.261 79.62% -0.331 0.6941
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 214 64.02% 43.82 5.134 73.36% -0.531 0.6629
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1212 66.33% 46.82 9.022 68.56% -0.343 0.8053
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 204 31.37% 27.88 -0.243 89.22% 0.245 -0.17
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 175 48.28% 31.61 -3.12 75.43% -0.575 0.0713
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 163 47.53% 40.28 4.842 88.96% 0.357 0.8537
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 193 62.18% 41.08 0.38 66.84% -1.324 0.089
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 178 66.29% 45.22 10.89 69.1% 0.339 1.427
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 106 65.09% 49.08 1.406 56.6% -1.995 -0.0739
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 536 84.33% 47.46 10.485 36.94% -1.59 0.4065

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 63 23.81% 27.35 92.06% 0.4 0.361 -0.301
Blitz 0 380 47.01% 29.07 69.21% 0.165 0.724 -0.373
Dahan Insurrection 4 351 32.46% 51.81 72.36% 0.059 0.1425 -0.224
Despicable Theft 2 85 41.18% 33.09 80.0% 0.116 0.6833 -0.172
Elemental Invocation 1 103 58.82% 24.37 74.76% 0.239 0.8176 -1.345
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1648 24.83% 40.46 64.44% -0.972 -0.7825 -0.691
Powers Long Forgotten 1 154 53.64% 30.27 73.38% -0.045 0.4694 -1.169
Rituals of Terror 3 129 41.86% 47.26 84.5% 0.48 0.2362 0.851
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 65 73.44% 30.95 69.23% 0.071 0.3278 0.57
Second Wave 0 1677 40.91% 31.53 79.49% -0.161 0.396 0.184
The Great River 3 1137 54.63% 32.84 57.43% -1.367 0.3624 -1.659
Varied Terrains 2 23 60.87% 36.65 73.91% -0.567 0.1405 -0.371
Ward the Shores 2 238 45.11% 32.74 67.23% -0.604 0.2017 -0.309

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1310 32.73 61.37% -1.852 0.1236 -0.637
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1457 34.54 61.7% -1.11 0.632 -0.448
All Things Weaken 820 35.08 58.41% -1.175 0.8932 -0.537
Back Against the Wall 1346 31.92 58.69% -1.817 0.1 -0.819
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1305 30.3 57.24% -1.389 0.6925 -0.603
Downward Spiral 3062 28.76 63.78% -1.247 0.6332 -0.703
Erosion of Will 1285 31.68 58.13% -0.898 1.1894 -0.775
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 368 40.28 80.43% 0.817 1.3339 -0.126
Memory Fades to Dust 2911 28.52 59.12% -1.746 0.3323 -0.692
Power Corrodes the Spirit 763 34.13 57.4% -1.985 -0.085 -0.618
Promising Farmlands 1262 30.34 55.94% -1.894 0.139 -0.825
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 270 39.18 86.3% 0.639 1.1039 0.349
Thriving Communities 779 32.88 56.87% -1.438 0.6093 -0.712
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -1.02
Unnatural Proliferation 866 36.7 60.85% -1.863 0.0666 -0.466
Untended Land Crumbles 841 32.33 56.96% -1.075 0.9245 -0.731

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16893 42.69% 30.81 77.23% 0.003 0.7488 -0.126
B 16658 42.78% 31.65 78.41% -0.09 0.605 -0.029
C 18167 42.33% 33.15 77.78% -0.055 0.4309 0.067
D 15987 42.91% 32.0 78.21% -0.115 0.5972 -0.046
E 6215 45.3% 35.74 77.68% -0.201 0.3602 0.184
F 7776 40.45% 34.53 79.5% 0.392 1.0617 0.048
G 6545 41.17% 33.24 79.59% -0.089 0.5121 0.039
H 6941 39.78% 33.95 78.16% 0.174 0.8374 -0.122

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2574 0.0% 18.95 71.68% -1.959 0.2155 -0.617
Not Using Events or Tokens 8353 35.87% 24.08 80.2% 0.441 0.6763 -0.352
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1783 11.05% 32.62 92.99% 0.135 -1.0487 -0.521
Start of Game Growth 2417 13.95% 33.37 92.22% 0.816 0.3841 1.09
Unlimited Undo 5868 30.05% 34.38 86.59% 0.833 0.3512 0.931
Using Tokens but Not Events 6490 31.74% 35.33 83.27% 0.349 0.5 0.477

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5807 22.67 29.71%
II 18214 31.11 74.5%
III 16850 34.68 90.24%
IV 6766 37.94 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1725
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14936
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13170
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6689
Lose: Invader deck ran out 509
Lose: Adversary condition 3030
Win: Sacrifice victory 142
Lose: Scenario condition 722
Win: Scenario condition 579
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5757
Lose: Spirit destroyed 378

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)