Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 223 38.57% 30.18 -1.918 86.55% -0.448 0.1029
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 209 41.83% 34.22 3.172 85.65% -0.134 0.7441
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 263 54.37% 37.81 3.961 73.38% -0.206 0.9132
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 290 59.31% 39.73 1.152 73.1% -1.627 -0.0961
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 186 82.8% 38.25 3.895 49.46% -0.857 0.73
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 72 80.56% 40.33 51.39%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 509 76.23% 41.89 7.113 41.06% -1.102 1.1585
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1172 33.65% 25.24 -0.29 86.86% 0.894 1.1386
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1007 36.02% 30.81 1.573 89.87% 1.533 1.4063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1228 40.17% 39.32 5.973 87.46% 0.973 1.0891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1365 41.53% 45.56 6.502 86.96% -0.006 0.3687
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1121 42.03% 48.22 8.679 85.99% 0.223 0.6888
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 551 53.18% 51.46 11.642 72.05% -0.218 0.7678
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1396 71.26% 50.36 12.404 63.04% -0.481 1.0945
The Kingdom of England 0 1 861 33.77% 24.97 -2.547 84.09% -0.339 0.1774
The Kingdom of England 1 3 532 41.18% 31.94 1.766 79.89% -0.396 0.2136
The Kingdom of England 2 4 729 45.58% 34.34 3.087 75.58% 0.184 1.3108
The Kingdom of England 3 6 907 60.0% 36.65 3.543 59.98% -1.459 0.284
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1175 51.28% 44.62 3.359 68.51% -1.87 -0.2916
The Kingdom of England 5 9 236 67.67% 44.52 2.58 51.27% -0.821 0.9165
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1784 64.07% 43.67 5.287 39.35% -2.363 -0.0639
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 409 39.56% 29.15 -1.398 83.37% -0.786 0.1161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 309 56.07% 31.07 0.816 75.08% -0.662 0.2279
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 654 46.47% 34.47 4.505 53.82% -0.321 2.0813
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 585 58.73% 40.11 5.346 54.36% -1.177 1.2067
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 374 55.5% 42.79 7.895 51.07% -0.526 1.9491
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 185 60.54% 49.92 56.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1877 53.76% 56.19 12.318 60.04% -1.048 1.319
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 17 23.53% 29.59 -0.531 94.12% 0.469 0.3452
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 19 31.58% 32.42 1.405 89.47% 0.162 1.0071
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 29 37.93% 34.66 1.507 75.86% -0.787 0.0415
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 29 31.03% 47.69 7.497 86.21% -0.049 0.8215
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 33 54.55% 46.7 7.562 81.82% -0.058 1.1771
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 28 64.29% 47.68 8.335 71.43% -0.48 0.9509
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 129 75.97% 51.74 11.199 60.47% -0.82 0.8785
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 517 34.97% 24.76 -1.514 87.23% 0.132 0.2986
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 454 40.99% 29.07 0.613 85.68% 0.451 0.2272
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 650 42.72% 33.22 1.92 85.38% 0.084 0.5374
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 725 55.29% 40.65 4.726 81.38% 0.103 0.4132
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 476 59.2% 42.3 4.713 78.57% -0.158 0.7936
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 204 65.2% 43.74 10.536 73.04% -0.144 0.8372
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1128 66.28% 46.51 9.769 68.17% -0.341 0.8508
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 175 30.86% 27.38 -1.382 89.14% 0.619 0.5626
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 164 47.85% 31.83 0.848 76.22% -0.493 0.2812
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 147 48.98% 40.06 11.799 88.44% 0.305 1.0161
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 179 61.45% 41.39 1.864 67.6% -0.954 0.385
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 163 66.87% 44.45 5.642 66.87% -0.261 1.1241
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 97 67.01% 50.56 7.807 59.79% -0.571 1.3666
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 476 84.03% 47.63 11.848 36.97% -1.048 0.9707

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 38 15.79% 25.79 92.11% 0.079 -0.1234 -0.638
Blitz 0 361 47.56% 27.88 68.42% 0.218 0.4758 -0.492
Dahan Insurrection 4 335 33.13% 51.13 71.34% 0.01 0.4228 -0.281
Despicable Theft 2 76 42.11% 32.67 77.63% 0.335 0.781 -0.451
Elemental Invocation 1 95 60.0% 24.37 73.68% -0.227 0.2586 -1.342
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1517 23.79% 40.6 65.59% -0.687 -0.3813 -0.621
Powers Long Forgotten 1 148 52.41% 30.2 73.65% 0.269 0.4506 -1.473
Rituals of Terror 3 127 41.73% 47.46 84.25% 0.434 0.5554 0.839
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 61 73.33% 31.61 70.49% -0.477 -0.0617 0.573
Second Wave 0 1583 40.91% 31.64 79.47% -0.679 -0.1132 0.137
The Great River 3 1039 54.01% 32.68 57.75% -1.12 0.2778 -1.497
Varied Terrains 2 9 77.78% 29.44 66.67% -0.575 -0.0495
Ward the Shores 2 222 45.45% 32.92 67.57% 0.0 1.1621 -0.023

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1226 32.64 61.75% -1.116 0.7867 -0.606
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1354 34.32 61.15% -1.783 -0.0532 -0.417
All Things Weaken 735 34.67 58.5% -1.726 0.259 -0.565
Back Against the Wall 1265 31.93 58.89% -1.903 -0.0866 -0.791
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1223 30.16 57.32% -1.455 0.5949 -0.554
Downward Spiral 2891 28.69 63.58% -1.885 0.1082 -0.707
Erosion of Will 1206 31.37 57.71% -0.963 1.12 -0.81
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 332 39.94 78.61% 0.756 1.1972 -0.249
Memory Fades to Dust 2746 28.31 58.85% -2.143 -0.0584 -0.699
Power Corrodes the Spirit 688 34.18 57.7% -1.225 0.7137 -0.656
Promising Farmlands 1174 30.2 56.05% -1.659 0.3869 -0.779
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 246 38.98 85.37% -0.48 -0.0556 0.289
Thriving Communities 698 32.74 56.73% -1.021 0.9626 -0.744
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.996
Unnatural Proliferation 781 36.65 61.72% -1.451 0.5134 -0.412
Untended Land Crumbles 757 32.29 56.8% -1.614 0.379 -0.678

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15773 42.77% 30.65 77.0% -0.049 0.7479 -0.174
B 15596 42.92% 31.58 78.26% 0.049 0.7922 -0.015
C 17033 42.51% 33.03 77.6% -0.309 0.2596 0.048
D 15084 43.03% 31.96 78.08% -0.101 0.695 -0.033
E 5504 45.37% 35.67 77.53% 0.215 0.8624 0.154
F 6969 40.88% 34.18 79.11% -0.078 0.646 0.054
G 5985 41.7% 33.25 79.6% 0.274 1.0059 0.114
H 6358 39.94% 33.82 77.85% 0.021 0.7332 -0.132

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2438 0.0% 18.66 71.66% -1.67 0.4592 -0.717
Not Using Events or Tokens 7802 36.9% 23.71 79.7% 0.331 0.5061 -0.276
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1626 11.18% 32.2 92.74% 1.129 0.9867 -0.659
Start of Game Growth 2231 13.83% 32.96 92.02% 0.824 0.0633 1.171
Unlimited Undo 5455 30.11% 34.28 86.34% -0.023 -0.6267 0.891
Using Tokens but Not Events 6081 31.84% 35.45 83.01% 0.608 0.4518 0.518

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5355 22.56 29.02%
II 16976 30.98 74.35%
III 15579 34.53 90.05%
IV 6276 37.77 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1554
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 13772
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 12243
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6202
Lose: Invader deck ran out 480
Lose: Adversary condition 2854
Win: Sacrifice victory 130
Lose: Scenario condition 661
Win: Scenario condition 554
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5383
Lose: Spirit destroyed 353

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)