Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 90 24.44% 25.64 87.78% 0.351 0.0859 -0.545
Blitz 0 405 46.06% 28.18 67.16% -0.768 -0.6117 -0.277
Dahan Insurrection 4 379 31.17% 51.64 72.3% 0.533 0.2652 -0.112
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.797 -0.0347 -0.072
Elemental Invocation 1 126 52.8% 24.32 73.02% -0.456 0.3045 -0.975
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1723 24.39% 40.07 64.02% -0.145 -0.7776 -0.615
Powers Long Forgotten 1 159 53.21% 29.86 72.96% -0.73 -0.1968 -1.111
Rituals of Terror 3 136 42.65% 46.05 83.09% -0.546 -0.4431 0.89
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.179 1.185 0.585
Second Wave 0 1791 40.14% 31.19 78.67% 0.062 0.1281 0.263
The Great River 3 1268 53.09% 31.71 55.44% -1.375 -0.0522 -1.553
Varied Terrains 2 41 46.34% 29.88 60.98% -1.032 -0.4531 -0.344
Ward the Shores 2 260 43.97% 32.06 65.0% -1.17 -0.0154 -0.327

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1386 32.38 60.61% -0.057 0.1333 -0.431
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1531 34.4 61.46% 0.332 0.2676 -0.204
All Things Weaken 893 34.66 57.22% 0.153 0.54 -0.38
Attenuated Essence 39 26.85 38.46% -0.508 -0.4018 -1.548
Back Against the Wall 1417 31.64 58.22% -0.091 -0.0288 -0.62
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 38 26.97 44.74% 0.089 0.3722 -0.968
Burn Brightest Before the End 40 30.57 45.0% -0.416 -0.2245 -0.305
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1369 30.11 56.76% -0.332 0.0996 -0.396
Downward Spiral 3203 28.57 63.5% -0.049 0.211 -0.421
Erosion of Will 1364 31.23 56.74% -0.365 -0.0361 -0.611
Intensifying Exploitation 20 26.35 50.0% -0.087 0.2108 -1.688
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 391 39.75 80.05% 0.642 0.1439 0.146
Memory Fades to Dust 3064 28.22 58.88% -0.18 0.2145 -0.472
Power Corrodes the Spirit 824 33.77 57.52% 0.626 0.8706 -0.407
Promising Farmlands 1312 30.26 55.72% 0.045 0.5315 -0.534
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 38.11 72.22% 0.879 0.9554 0.69
Slow Dissolution of Will 27 29.7 44.44% -0.31 0.1241 -0.968
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 281 38.31 84.7% -0.528 -1.1606 0.533
The Border of Life and Death 9 34.56 88.89% 1.012 0.6519 0.432
Thriving Communities 854 32.66 55.85% -0.106 0.2719 -0.532
Thriving Crops 16 24.63 62.5% -0.245 -0.3012 -0.675
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.821
Unnatural Proliferation 942 36.22 59.66% 0.034 0.2342 -0.299
Untended Land Crumbles 909 31.94 55.89% -0.191 0.0785 -0.514

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 18145 42.16% 30.32 76.03% -0.088 0.7735 -0.062
B 17880 42.02% 31.02 76.85% -0.258 0.5695 -0.023
C 19471 41.68% 32.6 76.77% 0.098 0.786 0.186
D 17274 42.42% 31.19 75.98% -0.203 0.6252 -0.163
E 7077 44.09% 34.31 74.72% 0.091 0.7494 0.011
F 8395 40.53% 34.0 78.0% -0.06 0.6922 0.056
G 7053 40.96% 32.75 78.43% 0.176 0.9466 0.125
H 7573 39.41% 33.4 76.92% 0.266 0.9549 -0.114

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2680 0.0% 18.72 70.78% -0.663 0.1627 -0.525
Not Using Events or Tokens 8936 34.94% 23.86 79.2% 0.328 0.665 -0.278
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1913 11.23% 32.17 90.85% 0.477 -0.1305 -0.202
Start of Game Growth 2609 14.22% 32.71 89.88% 0.003 -0.2747 0.894
Unlimited Undo 6371 30.17% 33.68 84.57% -0.049 -0.0489 1.004
Using Tokens but Not Events 6986 31.0% 34.47 81.89% 0.217 0.1465 0.531

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7042 20.73 25.86%
II 19474 31.02 74.13%
III 17795 34.75 90.18%
IV 7175 38.04 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1821
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15766
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14019
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7094
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1024
Lose: Invader deck ran out 530
Lose: Adversary condition 3222
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 757
Win: Scenario condition 608
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6094
Lose: Spirit destroyed 404

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)