Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 145 37.24% 29.79 0.002 88.28% 0.368 0.6486
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 125 41.6% 33.54 2.061 86.4% 0.026 0.4156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 154 52.6% 37.32 3.857 74.03% -0.825 0.0453
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 150 69.33% 38.65 4.636 72.0% -0.849 0.4083
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 95 80.0% 37.44 4.149 46.32% -1.768 -0.2391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 47 78.72% 40.96 6.357 53.19% -1.502 0.5246
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 268 77.24% 38.91 4.601 35.82% -2.401 -0.3309
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 834 34.02% 24.89 -2.094 87.17% -0.145 -0.1074
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 678 37.91% 29.95 0.423 89.38% 0.225 0.1948
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 865 41.65% 38.59 4.595 86.82% -0.059 -0.0544
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 930 43.72% 45.31 7.91 86.77% -0.092 0.1994
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 866 41.05% 48.33 9.362 86.61% -0.199 0.1618
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 416 55.77% 50.65 10.633 69.95% -1.055 -0.227
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 940 69.98% 50.57 10.63 64.04% -1.316 -0.0716
The Kingdom of England 0 1 617 36.12% 24.23 -2.372 83.79% -0.389 -0.0571
The Kingdom of England 1 3 385 38.95% 32.03 1.455 80.52% -0.549 -0.049
The Kingdom of England 2 4 519 46.5% 34.14 2.458 75.92% -0.848 0.1219
The Kingdom of England 3 6 587 63.7% 35.62 3.303 57.58% -1.662 -0.0835
The Kingdom of England 4 7 879 48.74% 45.32 7.474 70.76% -1.335 0.1659
The Kingdom of England 5 9 180 63.07% 44.81 7.706 51.67% -1.877 0.1926
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1299 62.45% 44.11 7.161 41.34% -2.527 -0.2753
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 311 42.07% 28.19 -0.897 81.99% -0.527 -0.0022
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 208 60.29% 30.71 0.56 75.48% -0.636 0.2574
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 444 45.48% 33.86 1.915 52.93% -2.155 -0.0258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 429 54.67% 40.74 5.515 55.71% -1.881 0.3058
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 286 55.09% 42.26 6.194 50.0% -2.148 -0.006
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 137 56.93% 49.99 9.935 58.39% -1.706 0.1168
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1280 51.33% 56.06 13.018 61.41% -1.755 0.3604
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 392 35.49% 24.13 -2.399 88.27% 0.092 0.1809
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 319 44.37% 28.73 -0.037 86.21% 0.123 0.1427
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 445 42.99% 32.51 1.584 85.39% -0.092 0.1312
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 560 55.33% 40.9 5.746 82.68% -0.206 0.0794
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 368 58.36% 42.72 6.56 80.43% -0.376 0.3911
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 156 67.95% 43.37 7.037 71.79% -0.771 0.3896
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 778 64.94% 46.21 8.333 69.54% -0.976 0.1567
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 106 30.19% 26.59 -1.992 88.68% 0.099 -0.0205
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 98 51.55% 30.27 -0.153 72.45% -0.958 -0.2397
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 86 41.86% 40.79 5.033 91.86% 0.489 0.9307
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 104 62.5% 39.99 4.753 64.42% -1.248 0.0025
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 100 69.0% 42.41 6.249 63.0% -1.101 0.0229
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 52 75.0% 49.75 9.429 59.62% -1.383 0.6634
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 245 84.9% 45.5 7.667 37.14% -2.301 -0.3673

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 332 46.91% 25.83 -3.01 66.57% -0.842 -0.2613
Dahan Insurrection 4 374 35.54% 50.95 9.161 77.27% -0.246 0.1574
Despicable Theft 2 24 50.0% 34.96 2.085 75.0% -0.455 -0.1049
Elemental Invocation 1 39 56.41% 24.51 -3.497 74.36% -0.351 0.0218
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1351 23.65% 41.01 2.981 66.69% -0.69 -0.3258
Powers Long Forgotten 1 149 56.16% 31.05 -0.391 74.5% -0.371 0.0707
Rituals of Terror 3 104 41.35% 42.13 5.285 80.77% -0.139 0.4957
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 67.8% 32.5 1.141 70.0% -0.775 -0.1347
Second Wave 0 1427 45.8% 30.52 -0.462 76.8% -0.623 -0.1992
The Great River 3 564 52.85% 32.56 0.437 57.8% -1.755 -0.3334
Ward the Shores 2 209 53.14% 31.98 0.155 64.11% -1.12 -0.0789

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 879 32.32 -1.269 63.71% -1.587 0.4838
Aid From Lesser Spirits 945 33.38 -0.765 61.06% -1.737 0.1852
All Things Weaken 411 35.37 -0.306 62.04% -1.522 0.6315
Back Against the Wall 908 32.17 -1.233 61.34% -1.713 0.3838
Disintegrating Ecosystem 889 30.28 -2.373 57.93% -1.751 0.4743
Downward Spiral 2210 28.67 -2.228 64.21% -1.691 0.3281
Erosion of Will 858 30.83 -1.902 58.62% -1.806 0.4045
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 186 39.5 1.779 79.57% -0.549 0.1444
Memory Fades to Dust 2058 28.39 -2.521 60.06% -1.916 0.2994
Power Corrodes the Spirit 379 33.3 -1.374 56.73% -1.741 0.2759
Promising Farmlands 874 30.04 -2.418 57.55% -1.812 0.4016
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 136 39.3 1.76 85.29% -0.321 0.1096
Thriving Communities 375 32.34 -1.751 55.73% -1.794 0.3022
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.281 53.88% -1.971 0.2502
Unnatural Proliferation 411 34.45 -0.56 58.64% -1.695 0.3915
Untended Land Crumbles 394 30.84 -2.357 54.06% -2.017 0.0787

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 11308 42.1% 30.26 -0.821 77.27% -0.139 -1.2402
B 11326 43.4% 31.17 -0.398 78.06% -0.004 -1.2001
C 12416 42.44% 32.75 0.399 77.89% 0.04 -1.3889
D 11258 42.97% 31.69 -0.132 78.16% -0.015 -1.2058
E 2887 46.39% 35.59 0.993 77.42% 0.139 -1.1603
F 4358 41.62% 34.19 0.457 78.73% 0.016 -1.2387
G 3863 42.8% 33.73 0.389 79.55% 0.073 -1.1695
H 4226 40.07% 34.11 0.298 78.61% -0.086 -1.3432

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1884 0.0% 18.66 -4.856 71.07% -2.041 0.0073
Not Using Events or Tokens 5772 37.89% 23.52 -2.929 79.21% -0.126 0.0951
Skip Initial Invader Actions 999 13.87% 31.78 0.96 90.69% 0.41 -0.2946
Start of Game Growth 1441 15.61% 32.95 1.044 90.77% 0.439 -0.0124
Unlimited Undo 3611 32.44% 34.33 1.032 84.93% 0.333 -0.0839
Using Tokens but Not Events 4099 35.29% 34.88 0.654 81.14% 0.109 0.0576

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3639 22.33 28.52%
II 11933 30.75 74.47%
III 10853 34.25 89.87%
IV 4396 37.47 99.57%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 644
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7622
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6324
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3515
Lose: Invader deck ran out 354
Lose: Adversary condition 1913
Win: Sacrifice victory 87
Lose: Scenario condition 470
Win: Scenario condition 422
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3767
Lose: Spirit destroyed 262

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)