Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 89 24.72% 25.93 88.76% 0.426 0.2391 -0.159
Blitz 0 405 46.06% 28.18 67.16% -0.785 -0.6345 -0.311
Dahan Insurrection 4 378 31.25% 51.66 72.22% 0.427 0.1979 -0.126
Despicable Theft 2 91 40.66% 32.21 76.92% -0.739 0.0017 -0.067
Elemental Invocation 1 125 53.23% 24.26 72.8% -0.408 0.3668 -0.984
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1718 24.34% 40.02 63.91% -0.448 -1.0687 -0.638
Powers Long Forgotten 1 159 53.21% 29.86 72.96% -0.393 0.109 -1.122
Rituals of Terror 3 136 42.65% 46.05 83.09% -0.37 -0.3066 0.886
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.156 1.1968 0.589
Second Wave 0 1781 40.25% 31.16 78.55% -0.122 -0.0642 0.257
The Great River 3 1253 52.92% 31.8 55.79% -1.273 0.0827 -1.539
Varied Terrains 2 41 46.34% 29.88 60.98% -1.073 -0.5686 -0.354
Ward the Shores 2 260 43.97% 32.06 65.0% -1.175 -0.0007 -0.331

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1380 32.38 60.65% -0.017 0.2312 -0.452
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1524 34.37 61.48% 0.139 0.1238 -0.228
All Things Weaken 890 34.68 57.3% 0.028 0.453 -0.392
Attenuated Essence 34 28.35 44.12% -0.406 -0.2437 -1.179
Back Against the Wall 1415 31.67 58.23% -0.139 -0.0303 -0.636
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 34 26.88 41.18% -0.046 0.3172 -0.977
Burn Brightest Before the End 39 30.74 46.15% -0.526 -0.2588 -0.191
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1364 30.11 56.82% -0.342 0.1344 -0.413
Downward Spiral 3193 28.59 63.58% 0.037 0.3407 -0.437
Erosion of Will 1359 31.19 56.81% -0.519 -0.1523 -0.635
Intensifying Exploitation 18 25.28 50.0% -0.157 0.195 -1.717
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 389 39.71 79.95% 0.45 -0.0612 0.104
Memory Fades to Dust 3047 28.27 59.01% -0.026 0.4092 -0.483
Power Corrodes the Spirit 822 33.85 57.66% 0.667 0.9289 -0.425
Promising Farmlands 1306 30.21 55.59% -0.288 0.2355 -0.574
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 37.26 71.43% 0.856 0.9723 0.582
Slow Dissolution of Will 25 29.76 44.0% -0.387 0.0965 -0.99
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 281 38.31 84.7% -0.55 -1.1754 0.517
The Border of Life and Death 7 38.43 85.71% 0.886 0.6354 0.443
Thriving Communities 848 32.59 55.9% -0.089 0.3438 -0.557
Thriving Crops 14 22.57 57.14% -0.444 -0.454 -1.061
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.837
Unnatural Proliferation 934 36.22 59.64% 0.02 0.2817 -0.322
Untended Land Crumbles 903 31.97 56.15% -0.009 0.307 -0.524

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 18052 42.18% 30.36 76.14% -0.049 0.8105 -0.063
B 17788 42.03% 31.05 76.98% -0.262 0.5517 -0.022
C 19381 41.67% 32.62 76.83% 0.072 0.7596 0.181
D 17205 42.45% 31.21 76.07% -0.18 0.6558 -0.168
E 7011 44.21% 34.35 74.8% 0.1 0.7526 0.009
F 8354 40.53% 34.04 78.11% -0.062 0.6895 0.054
G 6994 40.96% 32.79 78.54% 0.104 0.8755 0.123
H 7523 39.47% 33.43 77.07% 0.3 0.9831 -0.1

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2672 0.0% 18.73 70.81% -0.785 0.0591 -0.557
Not Using Events or Tokens 8886 34.99% 23.91 79.34% 0.404 0.7307 -0.26
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1909 11.26% 32.18 90.83% 0.487 -0.1058 -0.341
Start of Game Growth 2595 14.31% 32.78 90.1% 0.017 -0.2508 1.077
Unlimited Undo 6333 30.16% 33.72 84.67% -0.075 -0.0791 1.006
Using Tokens but Not Events 6964 31.0% 34.49 81.96% 0.291 0.2309 0.534

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6965 20.88 26.06%
II 19381 31.03 74.2%
III 17718 34.74 90.19%
IV 7141 38.02 99.64%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1815
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15698
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13964
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 7060
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 956
Lose: Invader deck ran out 529
Lose: Adversary condition 3203
Win: Sacrifice victory 147
Lose: Scenario condition 753
Win: Scenario condition 607
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6072
Lose: Spirit destroyed 401

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-02 03:54:23 (Pacific Time)