Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 159 37.11% 29.57 -0.207 86.16% 0.106 0.3838
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 139 43.88% 33.49 1.914 86.33% 0.015 0.4091
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 175 52.0% 37.66 3.915 75.43% -0.805 0.0734
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 164 66.46% 39.16 4.77 73.17% -0.84 0.411
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 113 79.65% 37.47 4.046 46.02% -1.871 -0.3498
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 49 79.59% 40.76 6.184 53.06% -1.508 0.4691
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 300 77.33% 40.1 5.141 38.67% -2.298 -0.248
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 878 34.18% 24.89 -2.09 87.13% -0.137 -0.0962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 716 37.06% 30.11 0.452 89.8% 0.269 0.2395
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 899 41.18% 38.69 4.607 87.21% -0.037 -0.0321
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 981 43.79% 45.25 7.845 86.54% -0.124 0.1649
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 893 41.49% 48.22 9.285 86.34% -0.217 0.1505
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 442 55.43% 50.62 10.572 69.91% -1.065 -0.2353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1032 70.23% 50.72 10.655 64.53% -1.314 -0.0725
The Kingdom of England 0 1 651 34.81% 24.49 -2.281 84.49% -0.349 -0.0169
The Kingdom of England 1 3 410 38.52% 32.25 1.529 80.98% -0.521 -0.0168
The Kingdom of England 2 4 545 46.11% 34.31 2.513 76.33% -0.828 0.1398
The Kingdom of England 3 6 639 63.36% 35.62 3.243 57.43% -1.669 -0.0907
The Kingdom of England 4 7 933 48.6% 45.15 7.372 70.31% -1.359 0.1386
The Kingdom of England 5 9 191 64.17% 45.31 7.89 53.4% -1.81 0.257
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1350 62.83% 44.2 7.169 41.56% -2.519 -0.2645
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 328 41.1% 28.28 -0.878 82.62% -0.486 0.0284
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 224 60.91% 30.33 0.352 73.66% -0.739 0.1568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 478 45.17% 33.9 1.892 53.14% -2.157 -0.0203
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 453 56.42% 40.55 5.388 55.41% -1.888 0.2974
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 301 54.0% 42.57 6.323 50.83% -2.123 0.0238
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 152 58.55% 49.1 9.534 55.92% -1.74 0.0797
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1397 51.68% 55.76 12.829 60.7% -1.781 0.326
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 420 34.78% 24.41 -2.33 89.05% 0.167 0.2516
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 341 42.94% 28.86 -0.032 86.8% 0.139 0.1598
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 467 43.11% 32.54 1.584 85.65% -0.07 0.162
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 596 55.69% 40.77 5.691 82.55% -0.19 0.0962
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 381 58.47% 42.54 6.469 80.05% -0.397 0.38
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 166 66.27% 43.58 7.123 72.29% -0.756 0.4007
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 822 64.71% 46.1 8.261 69.22% -0.986 0.1451
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 118 30.51% 26.36 -2.071 87.29% 0.021 -0.0849
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 112 50.45% 30.29 -0.154 73.21% -0.882 -0.1394
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 99 45.45% 39.99 4.716 89.9% 0.334 0.766
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 116 60.34% 40.7 5.033 67.24% -1.133 0.1164
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 112 66.07% 43.83 6.901 66.07% -1.015 0.1119
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 60 71.67% 51.5 10.243 63.33% -1.299 0.72
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 265 83.77% 45.96 7.866 38.11% -2.294 -0.3884

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 360 47.73% 26.3 -2.922 66.11% -0.867 -0.2934
Dahan Insurrection 4 395 35.86% 50.73 9.05 76.46% -0.28 0.1203
Despicable Theft 2 43 32.56% 34.6 1.623 81.4% -0.591 -0.3083
Elemental Invocation 1 55 56.36% 24.65 -3.434 74.55% -0.379 0.0607
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1412 23.19% 40.77 2.816 66.43% -0.741 -0.3754
Powers Long Forgotten 1 163 55.63% 31.25 -0.311 74.23% -0.371 0.0702
Rituals of Terror 3 112 40.18% 41.76 5.123 81.25% -0.172 0.4715
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 65 68.75% 32.46 1.119 72.31% -0.678 -0.0359
Second Wave 0 1528 45.05% 30.75 -0.429 77.16% -0.612 -0.1836
The Great River 3 681 53.61% 32.23 0.221 57.56% -1.754 -0.2942
Ward the Shores 2 216 52.34% 32.02 0.149 64.81% -1.1 -0.0631

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 936 32.49 -1.225 63.57% -1.574 0.4989
Aid From Lesser Spirits 997 33.49 -0.737 60.98% -1.717 0.202
All Things Weaken 449 34.99 -0.56 60.8% -1.591 0.5682
Back Against the Wall 955 31.98 -1.347 60.63% -1.743 0.3509
Disintegrating Ecosystem 938 30.13 -2.462 57.89% -1.764 0.4605
Downward Spiral 2312 28.74 -2.214 64.45% -1.683 0.338
Erosion of Will 921 30.98 -1.894 58.52% -1.793 0.4162
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 211 39.07 1.533 78.2% -0.662 0.0302
Memory Fades to Dust 2177 28.41 -2.531 60.17% -1.916 0.3028
Power Corrodes the Spirit 435 33.35 -1.395 56.32% -1.743 0.2776
Promising Farmlands 917 30.03 -2.475 57.03% -1.836 0.3781
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 154 39.34 1.792 85.71% -0.27 0.1415
Thriving Communities 421 32.88 -1.54 57.72% -1.71 0.3835
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.281 53.88% -1.966 0.2598
Unnatural Proliferation 473 35.62 -0.084 60.25% -1.609 0.4808
Untended Land Crumbles 438 31.7 -2.036 55.94% -1.934 0.1721

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 11989 42.17% 30.3 -0.845 77.17% -0.143 -1.2554
B 11945 43.3% 31.27 -0.368 78.28% 0.012 -1.1958
C 13121 42.47% 32.83 0.396 77.91% 0.043 -1.3961
D 11847 42.91% 31.83 -0.104 78.22% -0.007 -1.2085
E 3277 46.28% 35.8 1.038 77.63% 0.158 -1.1547
F 4739 41.46% 34.16 0.421 78.73% 0.015 -1.2505
G 4186 42.62% 33.66 0.334 79.24% 0.058 -1.1993
H 4570 39.96% 33.98 0.23 78.45% -0.113 -1.3785

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1944 0.0% 18.65 -4.892 70.99% -2.06 -0.0056
Not Using Events or Tokens 6094 37.81% 23.55 -2.923 79.41% -0.106 0.1114
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1084 14.13% 32.1 1.019 90.77% 0.456 -0.2376
Start of Game Growth 1554 15.88% 33.09 1.058 90.48% 0.403 -0.0599
Unlimited Undo 3828 32.48% 34.24 0.973 85.06% 0.336 -0.0847
Using Tokens but Not Events 4418 34.91% 35.18 0.767 81.37% 0.13 0.0777

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3868 22.34 28.62%
II 12708 30.81 74.32%
III 11557 34.31 90.0%
IV 4704 37.5 99.53%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 713
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8262
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6866
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3816
Lose: Invader deck ran out 378
Lose: Adversary condition 2045
Win: Sacrifice victory 95
Lose: Scenario condition 510
Win: Scenario condition 441
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3997
Lose: Spirit destroyed 273

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)