Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 124 34.68% 29.77 -0.091 91.94% 0.467 0.7474
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 105 43.81% 33.29 1.842 85.71% -0.029 0.3438
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 129 51.94% 37.32 3.789 73.64% -0.867 -0.0195
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 130 69.23% 38.4 4.488 70.77% -0.904 0.3339
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 78 78.21% 38.08 4.368 47.44% -1.697 -0.1749
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 43 79.07% 40.28 6.043 51.16% -1.562 0.4657
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 223 74.44% 38.63 4.358 34.98% -2.423 -0.3307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 762 33.95% 24.9 -2.092 87.14% -0.119 -0.072
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 619 38.13% 29.84 0.327 88.85% 0.162 0.1335
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 787 41.58% 38.53 4.525 86.4% -0.073 -0.0755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 883 44.01% 45.42 7.922 87.09% -0.053 0.2316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 801 40.5% 48.2 9.227 86.27% -0.231 0.1473
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 378 56.88% 50.87 10.641 70.11% -1.029 -0.1952
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 840 70.37% 50.55 10.604 64.05% -1.307 -0.0575
The Kingdom of England 0 1 550 35.83% 24.44 -2.298 84.36% -0.339 -0.0067
The Kingdom of England 1 3 340 39.4% 32.07 1.479 80.88% -0.51 -0.0274
The Kingdom of England 2 4 479 45.36% 34.18 2.444 76.2% -0.839 0.1186
The Kingdom of England 3 6 546 63.6% 35.66 3.292 57.69% -1.649 -0.0713
The Kingdom of England 4 7 785 48.72% 45.58 7.562 71.59% -1.275 0.2471
The Kingdom of England 5 9 176 62.79% 44.68 7.635 51.14% -1.887 0.1771
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1195 60.69% 44.4 7.3 41.92% -2.51 -0.2548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 274 40.66% 28.41 -0.807 82.85% -0.482 0.042
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 192 60.11% 30.61 0.517 75.52% -0.622 0.2688
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 406 45.79% 33.62 1.769 52.22% -2.165 -0.0368
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 400 53.63% 41.03 5.614 56.25% -1.868 0.3181
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 257 55.86% 42.43 6.267 50.19% -2.109 0.0362
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 126 59.52% 49.38 9.667 57.14% -1.696 0.1229
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1121 50.13% 56.73 13.265 62.71% -1.708 0.4274
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 343 33.53% 24.08 -2.431 87.76% -0.01 0.0754
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 277 44.24% 28.75 0.024 87.36% 0.19 0.1997
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 395 42.6% 32.37 1.513 85.32% -0.095 0.1216
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 523 54.65% 40.8 5.645 82.41% -0.238 0.0468
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 346 58.02% 42.73 6.532 80.35% -0.387 0.3907
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 144 70.83% 42.67 6.702 70.14% -0.802 0.3632
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 698 64.94% 46.38 8.399 69.63% -0.941 0.192
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 85 29.41% 25.64 -2.474 87.06% -0.113 -0.23
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 82 45.12% 31.2 0.103 74.39% -0.941 -0.2522
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 61 40.98% 40.51 4.803 90.16% 0.292 0.7277
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 79 55.7% 41.86 5.576 69.62% -1.032 0.2431
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 80 73.75% 41.0 5.491 60.0% -1.137 0.0207
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 44 72.73% 52.43 10.719 65.91% -1.047 0.9891
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 204 83.33% 46.08 7.774 38.24% -2.26 -0.3106

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 286 44.29% 25.4 -3.159 68.53% -0.83 -0.2575
Dahan Insurrection 4 346 34.93% 51.37 9.376 79.19% -0.193 0.2078
Elemental Invocation 1 16 62.5% 23.94 -2.896 75.0% -0.037 0.428
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1281 23.46% 41.07 2.929 66.35% -0.719 -0.3442
Powers Long Forgotten 1 142 57.55% 31.08 -0.404 73.94% -0.365 0.082
Rituals of Terror 3 96 42.71% 42.9 5.505 81.25% -0.074 0.5483
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 59 68.97% 32.41 1.049 69.49% -0.774 -0.1494
Second Wave 0 1302 46.96% 30.76 -0.406 76.5% -0.613 -0.1938
The Great River 3 414 50.73% 32.57 0.245 56.04% -1.902 -0.4171
Ward the Shores 2 193 50.79% 31.81 0.037 64.25% -1.156 -0.1257

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 792 32.53 -1.247 64.02% -1.594 0.4741
Aid From Lesser Spirits 855 32.99 -0.992 60.23% -1.799 0.1179
All Things Weaken 328 35.2 -0.347 65.24% -1.447 0.7128
Back Against the Wall 823 32.66 -1.087 62.09% -1.692 0.4
Disintegrating Ecosystem 802 30.11 -2.526 57.23% -1.806 0.4152
Downward Spiral 2037 28.83 -2.205 64.6% -1.689 0.3248
Erosion of Will 788 30.68 -1.99 59.01% -1.808 0.4031
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 154 39.03 1.492 79.22% -0.587 0.1249
Memory Fades to Dust 1892 28.23 -2.663 59.51% -1.97 0.2456
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 33.5 -1.259 56.95% -1.71 0.3096
Promising Farmlands 793 30.04 -2.485 57.5% -1.821 0.3931
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 100 37.02 0.664 83.0% -0.557 -0.1395
Thriving Communities 298 32.4 -1.746 57.38% -1.786 0.321
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.335 53.88% -1.99 0.2264
Unnatural Proliferation 344 34.91 -0.403 61.05% -1.62 0.46
Untended Land Crumbles 329 31.71 -1.96 57.45% -1.893 0.2019

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 10300 41.82% 30.26 -0.846 77.35% -0.147 -1.2202
B 10314 43.55% 31.17 -0.421 78.01% -0.009 -1.173
C 11381 42.81% 32.77 0.378 77.74% 0.027 -1.3692
D 10294 43.0% 31.74 -0.122 78.2% -0.017 -1.1755
E 2312 46.46% 35.65 0.966 77.77% 0.119 -1.1381
F 3733 41.78% 34.48 0.501 78.65% 0.009 -1.2172
G 3362 42.72% 34.06 0.479 80.1% 0.101 -1.1116
H 3700 39.77% 34.55 0.428 79.19% -0.06 -1.2811

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1775 0.0% 18.75 -4.803 71.21% -2.043 -0.0046
Not Using Events or Tokens 5277 38.34% 23.33 -3.039 79.0% -0.116 0.1047
Skip Initial Invader Actions 906 14.17% 31.89 1.0 90.29% 0.352 -0.3536
Start of Game Growth 1303 15.48% 32.95 0.99 90.64% 0.424 -0.0347
Unlimited Undo 3247 32.16% 34.5 1.093 85.19% 0.374 -0.0287
Using Tokens but Not Events 3740 35.42% 35.06 0.655 81.26% 0.126 0.0798

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3279 22.34 28.48%
II 10772 30.71 74.84%
III 9708 34.23 89.79%
IV 3939 37.48 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 540
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6602
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5512
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3061
Lose: Invader deck ran out 316
Lose: Adversary condition 1685
Win: Sacrifice victory 80
Lose: Scenario condition 420
Win: Scenario condition 398
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3408
Lose: Spirit destroyed 235

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)