Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 84 23.81% 26.56 89.29% 0.307 0.2552 -0.218
Blitz 0 393 46.72% 28.89 68.96% -0.1 0.0585 -0.319
Dahan Insurrection 4 374 31.59% 51.97 72.46% 0.353 0.1956 -0.133
Despicable Theft 2 90 41.11% 32.18 76.67% -0.96 -0.2455 -0.085
Elemental Invocation 1 121 53.33% 24.14 73.55% -0.239 0.4691 -1.289
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1697 24.47% 40.15 64.17% -0.243 -0.8816 -0.66
Powers Long Forgotten 1 159 53.21% 29.86 72.96% -0.254 0.1979 -1.121
Rituals of Terror 3 135 42.96% 46.39 83.7% -0.099 -0.1279 1.034
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 74.63% 31.15 69.12% 0.343 1.2739 0.575
Second Wave 0 1763 40.44% 31.17 78.62% -0.206 -0.1384 0.215
The Great River 3 1240 53.4% 31.9 55.89% -1.297 0.084 -1.596
Varied Terrains 2 39 46.15% 29.54 61.54% -1.141 -0.6048 -0.355
Ward the Shores 2 258 44.31% 31.67 64.73% -1.305 -0.103 -0.374

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1365 32.5 61.1% -0.079 0.2103 -0.462
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1513 34.36 61.6% 0.176 0.2596 -0.286
All Things Weaken 877 34.81 57.92% -0.1 0.3776 -0.394
Attenuated Essence 32 28.47 43.75% -0.645 -0.343 -1.214
Back Against the Wall 1397 31.75 58.34% -0.279 -0.0775 -0.645
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 25 23.96 44.0% -0.076 0.4149 -0.71
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 27.03 40.0% -0.976 -0.6403 -0.298
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1354 30.16 57.02% -0.264 0.2929 -0.453
Downward Spiral 3166 28.63 63.64% -0.029 0.342 -0.494
Erosion of Will 1346 31.3 56.91% -0.674 -0.21 -0.687
Intensifying Exploitation 10 28.6 50.0% -0.402 0.0354 -1.444
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 385 40.01 80.26% 0.745 0.2578 0.043
Memory Fades to Dust 3026 28.32 59.05% -0.112 0.39 -0.524
Power Corrodes the Spirit 811 34.01 57.83% 0.436 0.7506 -0.474
Promising Farmlands 1297 30.23 55.67% -0.493 0.1302 -0.626
Shattered Fragments of Power 30 37.9 76.67% 0.996 1.2483 0.524
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 29.52 38.1% -0.541 0.0288 -1.362
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 276 38.74 85.87% -0.356 -1.0525 0.554
The Border of Life and Death 5 35.4 80.0% 0.499 0.4167 0.452
Thriving Communities 838 32.62 56.32% -0.212 0.3098 -0.571
Thriving Crops 14 22.57 57.14% -0.444 -0.2782 -1.052
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -0.869
Unnatural Proliferation 924 36.33 59.96% -0.26 0.0719 -0.361
Untended Land Crumbles 888 32.15 56.53% -0.068 0.3213 -0.551

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 17841 42.31% 30.46 76.42% 0.056 0.9086 -0.074
B 17557 42.17% 31.19 77.36% -0.224 0.5569 -0.025
C 19139 41.83% 32.74 77.06% 0.076 0.7368 0.143
D 16959 42.49% 31.37 76.58% -0.172 0.6335 -0.129
E 6862 44.37% 34.65 75.55% 0.133 0.767 0.065
F 8256 40.41% 34.16 78.48% -0.062 0.6641 0.063
G 6912 41.06% 32.84 78.67% 0.029 0.7881 0.099
H 7420 39.6% 33.51 77.18% 0.183 0.8508 -0.127

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2657 0.0% 18.76 70.91% -0.861 0.0503 -0.588
Not Using Events or Tokens 8790 35.15% 23.95 79.51% 0.417 0.733 -0.299
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1878 11.27% 32.34 91.59% 0.442 -0.104 -0.35
Start of Game Growth 2551 14.24% 32.93 90.79% 0.077 -0.2613 1.052
Unlimited Undo 6248 30.19% 33.81 84.96% -0.221 -0.2522 0.974
Using Tokens but Not Events 6867 31.15% 34.73 82.48% 0.455 0.3893 0.558

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 6708 21.15 26.85%
II 19153 31.04 74.28%
III 17586 34.73 90.21%
IV 7075 38.01 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1801
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15586
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13811
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6995
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 734
Lose: Invader deck ran out 524
Lose: Adversary condition 3169
Win: Sacrifice victory 145
Lose: Scenario condition 748
Win: Scenario condition 603
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6014
Lose: Spirit destroyed 392

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-27 04:08:23 (Pacific Time)