Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 63 23.81% 27.35 92.06% 0.4 0.361 -0.301
Blitz 0 380 47.01% 29.07 69.21% 0.165 0.724 -0.373
Dahan Insurrection 4 351 32.46% 51.81 72.36% 0.059 0.1425 -0.224
Despicable Theft 2 85 41.18% 33.09 80.0% 0.116 0.6833 -0.172
Elemental Invocation 1 103 58.82% 24.37 74.76% 0.239 0.8176 -1.345
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1648 24.83% 40.46 64.44% -0.972 -0.7825 -0.691
Powers Long Forgotten 1 154 53.64% 30.27 73.38% -0.045 0.4694 -1.169
Rituals of Terror 3 129 41.86% 47.26 84.5% 0.48 0.2362 0.851
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 65 73.44% 30.95 69.23% 0.071 0.3278 0.57
Second Wave 0 1677 40.91% 31.53 79.49% -0.161 0.396 0.184
The Great River 3 1137 54.63% 32.84 57.43% -1.367 0.3624 -1.659
Varied Terrains 2 23 60.87% 36.65 73.91% -0.567 0.1405 -0.371
Ward the Shores 2 238 45.11% 32.74 67.23% -0.604 0.2017 -0.309

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1310 32.73 61.37% -1.852 0.1236 -0.637
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1457 34.54 61.7% -1.11 0.632 -0.448
All Things Weaken 820 35.08 58.41% -1.175 0.8932 -0.537
Back Against the Wall 1346 31.92 58.69% -1.817 0.1 -0.819
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1305 30.3 57.24% -1.389 0.6925 -0.603
Downward Spiral 3062 28.76 63.78% -1.247 0.6332 -0.703
Erosion of Will 1285 31.68 58.13% -0.898 1.1894 -0.775
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 368 40.28 80.43% 0.817 1.3339 -0.126
Memory Fades to Dust 2911 28.52 59.12% -1.746 0.3323 -0.692
Power Corrodes the Spirit 763 34.13 57.4% -1.985 -0.085 -0.618
Promising Farmlands 1262 30.34 55.94% -1.894 0.139 -0.825
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 270 39.18 86.3% 0.639 1.1039 0.349
Thriving Communities 779 32.88 56.87% -1.438 0.6093 -0.712
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -1.02
Unnatural Proliferation 866 36.7 60.85% -1.863 0.0666 -0.466
Untended Land Crumbles 841 32.33 56.96% -1.075 0.9245 -0.731

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16893 42.69% 30.81 77.23% 0.003 0.7488 -0.126
B 16658 42.78% 31.65 78.41% -0.09 0.605 -0.029
C 18167 42.33% 33.15 77.78% -0.055 0.4309 0.067
D 15987 42.91% 32.0 78.21% -0.115 0.5972 -0.046
E 6215 45.3% 35.74 77.68% -0.201 0.3602 0.184
F 7776 40.45% 34.53 79.5% 0.392 1.0617 0.048
G 6545 41.17% 33.24 79.59% -0.089 0.5121 0.039
H 6941 39.78% 33.95 78.16% 0.174 0.8374 -0.122

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2574 0.0% 18.95 71.68% -1.959 0.2155 -0.617
Not Using Events or Tokens 8353 35.87% 24.08 80.2% 0.441 0.6763 -0.352
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1783 11.05% 32.62 92.99% 0.135 -1.0487 -0.521
Start of Game Growth 2417 13.95% 33.37 92.22% 0.816 0.3841 1.09
Unlimited Undo 5868 30.05% 34.38 86.59% 0.833 0.3512 0.931
Using Tokens but Not Events 6490 31.74% 35.33 83.27% 0.349 0.5 0.477

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5807 22.67 29.71%
II 18214 31.11 74.5%
III 16850 34.68 90.24%
IV 6766 37.94 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1725
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14936
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13170
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6689
Lose: Invader deck ran out 509
Lose: Adversary condition 3030
Win: Sacrifice victory 142
Lose: Scenario condition 722
Win: Scenario condition 579
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5757
Lose: Spirit destroyed 378

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-29 03:36:29 (Pacific Time)