Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 244 37.7% 30.68 0.116 87.7% 0.822 1.3298
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 223 43.24% 33.84 -3.33 84.75% -0.924 -0.5198
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 276 54.35% 37.72 1.054 73.19% -0.702 0.4753
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 310 60.32% 39.39 0.325 71.61% -1.179 0.2459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 198 82.32% 38.24 4.583 49.49% -1.073 0.5074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 76 81.58% 40.42 5.941 51.32% -0.316 1.6198
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 554 75.77% 41.66 3.955 39.89% -2.297 -0.0259
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 1236 33.61% 25.29 -2.161 86.97% 0.552 0.5054
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1071 36.11% 30.89 0.501 89.92% 0.213 -0.0193
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1308 40.99% 39.27 2.898 87.16% -0.233 -0.0433
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1422 42.04% 45.35 5.668 86.5% -0.36 0.0065
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1182 41.2% 48.36 8.798 86.29% -0.311 0.0476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 608 49.59% 52.18 12.648 74.34% 0.369 1.5354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1472 71.28% 50.45 10.755 63.38% -0.417 1.0297
The Kingdom of England 0 1 914 33.52% 25.1 -2.794 84.03% -0.687 -0.1302
The Kingdom of England 1 3 552 41.5% 31.9 -0.969 79.71% -0.455 0.2235
The Kingdom of England 2 4 762 45.18% 34.58 4.395 76.25% 0.673 1.827
The Kingdom of England 3 6 952 59.89% 36.74 2.947 60.19% -0.869 0.8082
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1216 51.16% 44.81 7.206 68.91% -0.848 0.6196
The Kingdom of England 5 9 247 67.36% 44.74 9.768 51.82% -0.51 1.5337
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1857 63.92% 43.89 9.255 39.74% -1.775 0.7879
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 422 39.29% 29.19 0.003 83.65% 0.847 1.5203
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 327 56.52% 30.97 2.654 74.62% 0.46 1.5321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 691 46.72% 34.85 3.118 54.99% -0.796 1.3189
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 605 59.2% 40.17 5.97 54.55% -0.427 1.7034
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 389 54.78% 43.24 12.353 51.93% -0.392 1.9534
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 202 61.88% 49.86 5.971 55.45% -1.133 0.9323
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1987 54.43% 56.22 12.204 59.94% -1.187 0.9873
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 39 28.21% 27.85 -3.159 89.74% -0.064 -0.1569
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 44 25.58% 32.77 0.011 84.09% -0.507 0.384
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 59 32.2% 38.05 4.623 86.44% 1.013 2.2158
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 83 36.14% 46.93 5.205 81.93% -0.911 -0.0521
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 81 59.26% 45.64 4.731 77.78% -0.63 0.5879
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 85 67.06% 44.79 3.411 60.0% -1.417 -0.1783
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 285 67.96% 52.55 10.205 61.4% -1.011 0.5468
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 563 34.77% 24.97 -1.749 87.74% 0.489 0.66
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 469 40.74% 29.17 1.505 85.5% 0.083 0.3025
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 685 42.28% 33.33 2.056 85.84% 1.096 1.3763
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 760 55.11% 40.65 2.727 81.18% -0.627 -0.1752
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 518 57.67% 42.62 6.567 79.54% 0.085 1.085
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 212 64.15% 43.88 9.389 73.58% 0.234 1.2748
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1199 66.39% 46.72 8.263 68.47% -0.405 0.7539
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 200 31.0% 27.91 -0.09 89.5% 0.388 -0.0639
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 174 47.98% 31.68 -3.436 75.86% -0.654 0.1487
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 159 48.73% 40.23 4.342 88.68% 0.343 0.7796
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 193 62.18% 41.08 3.305 66.84% -1.141 0.0983
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 174 66.09% 45.01 10.468 68.39% 0.428 1.5706
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 106 65.09% 49.08 1.479 56.6% -1.756 0.3793
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 531 84.56% 47.46 8.377 36.91% -1.413 0.5573

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 59 25.42% 27.07 91.53% 0.585 1.0807 -0.314
Blitz 0 379 47.14% 28.98 69.13% 0.418 0.8608 -0.388
Dahan Insurrection 4 349 32.65% 51.66 72.21% 0.145 0.2427 -0.23
Despicable Theft 2 84 41.67% 33.17 79.76% 0.113 0.6112 -0.176
Elemental Invocation 1 103 58.82% 24.37 74.76% 0.17 0.7162 -1.357
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1642 24.8% 40.45 64.43% -1.13 -0.899 -0.676
Powers Long Forgotten 1 151 53.38% 30.15 73.51% 0.031 0.4382 -1.513
Rituals of Terror 3 129 41.86% 47.26 84.5% 0.407 0.1711 0.854
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 65 73.44% 30.95 69.23% 0.079 0.3057 0.579
Second Wave 0 1662 40.91% 31.54 79.54% -0.15 0.5423 0.187
The Great River 3 1119 54.53% 32.8 57.55% -1.11 0.4712 -1.66
Varied Terrains 2 20 65.0% 37.75 70.0% -0.578 0.2086 -0.375
Ward the Shores 2 237 45.3% 32.76 67.09% -0.999 -0.1179 -0.296

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1301 32.77 61.41% -1.953 0.0179 -0.648
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1441 34.54 61.69% -0.834 0.9441 -0.456
All Things Weaken 813 35.01 58.18% -1.739 0.3098 -0.563
Back Against the Wall 1327 31.93 58.85% -1.444 0.4952 -0.772
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1294 30.23 57.19% -1.627 0.5007 -0.616
Downward Spiral 3043 28.74 63.65% -1.332 0.6295 -0.715
Erosion of Will 1277 31.62 58.03% -1.029 1.0531 -0.792
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 367 40.3 80.38% 1.151 1.6529 -0.131
Memory Fades to Dust 2883 28.53 59.28% -1.343 0.798 -0.681
Power Corrodes the Spirit 754 34.33 57.56% -1.56 0.4206 -0.635
Promising Farmlands 1254 30.3 55.9% -1.535 0.4867 -0.828
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 265 39.03 86.04% 0.451 0.9475 0.323
Thriving Communities 772 32.9 56.99% -1.319 0.7406 -0.724
Tipping Point 425 27.69 53.88% -1.012
Unnatural Proliferation 853 36.7 61.08% -2.069 -0.1121 -0.437
Untended Land Crumbles 832 32.24 56.61% -1.792 0.2412 -0.757

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 16732 42.81% 30.81 77.15% -0.091 0.6455 -0.128
B 16493 42.84% 31.66 78.35% -0.021 0.6761 -0.035
C 18005 42.41% 33.13 77.74% -0.017 0.4523 0.055
D 15836 43.0% 32.02 78.17% 0.0 0.7098 -0.039
E 6136 45.33% 35.77 77.69% -0.167 0.3778 0.188
F 7669 40.54% 34.5 79.4% 0.085 0.7466 0.052
G 6462 41.26% 33.22 79.59% 0.03 0.661 0.04
H 6855 39.8% 33.93 78.15% 0.2 0.8646 -0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2559 0.0% 18.94 71.59% -2.182 0.047 -0.615
Not Using Events or Tokens 8254 36.1% 23.99 80.07% 0.53 0.7567 -0.331
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1759 11.22% 32.6 92.95% 0.214 -0.7666 -0.596
Start of Game Growth 2382 14.06% 33.34 92.19% 0.967 0.5099 1.176
Unlimited Undo 5824 30.11% 34.39 86.56% 0.749 0.1974 0.927
Using Tokens but Not Events 6420 31.9% 35.38 83.13% 0.346 0.5014 0.487

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5741 22.65 29.52%
II 18035 31.08 74.46%
III 16668 34.66 90.2%
IV 6692 37.91 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1695
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14768
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13031
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6616
Lose: Invader deck ran out 506
Lose: Adversary condition 3004
Win: Sacrifice victory 139
Lose: Scenario condition 715
Win: Scenario condition 576
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5709
Lose: Spirit destroyed 377

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)