Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 129 34.11% 29.71 -0.097 90.7% 0.3 0.5832
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 112 42.86% 33.22 1.865 85.71% -0.057 0.3374
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 137 51.09% 37.6 3.945 74.45% -0.845 0.0156
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 141 69.5% 38.77 4.71 72.34% -0.815 0.4353
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 84 79.76% 37.26 4.028 45.24% -1.802 -0.2675
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 46 78.26% 40.59 6.173 52.17% -1.564 0.5044
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 241 75.1% 39.41 4.819 36.93% -2.366 -0.2884
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 787 33.89% 24.87 -2.077 87.04% -0.146 -0.1032
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 643 37.95% 29.93 0.397 89.11% 0.184 0.1579
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 821 41.69% 38.57 4.574 86.6% -0.078 -0.0781
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 904 44.32% 45.29 7.885 86.73% -0.097 0.196
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 831 40.48% 48.26 9.293 86.28% -0.24 0.1306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 394 57.36% 50.44 10.455 69.04% -1.092 -0.2541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 881 70.73% 50.65 10.668 64.36% -1.305 -0.0562
The Kingdom of England 0 1 578 35.71% 24.45 -2.287 84.6% -0.332 -0.0013
The Kingdom of England 1 3 352 39.77% 32.06 1.478 80.68% -0.536 -0.0466
The Kingdom of England 2 4 498 45.84% 34.14 2.457 76.1% -0.853 0.1112
The Kingdom of England 3 6 564 63.7% 35.61 3.269 57.62% -1.664 -0.0845
The Kingdom of England 4 7 826 48.36% 45.45 7.506 71.19% -1.328 0.1861
The Kingdom of England 5 9 179 62.86% 44.73 7.642 51.4% -1.9 0.1706
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1240 61.23% 44.36 7.297 41.94% -2.517 -0.2594
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 291 41.38% 28.19 -0.895 82.13% -0.533 -0.0073
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 199 60.51% 30.47 0.445 74.87% -0.674 0.2147
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 426 45.99% 33.83 1.885 52.82% -2.154 -0.0263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 413 54.61% 40.93 5.589 56.17% -1.869 0.3156
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 273 55.88% 42.19 6.165 49.82% -2.139 0.0114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 129 58.14% 49.48 9.727 57.36% -1.732 0.0939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1195 50.96% 56.2 13.047 61.76% -1.763 0.3649
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 361 34.65% 24.09 -2.409 87.81% 0.015 0.1035
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 289 44.48% 28.86 0.098 87.54% 0.226 0.2372
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 420 42.44% 32.43 1.531 85.0% -0.141 0.0788
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 540 54.97% 40.89 5.708 82.41% -0.238 0.0447
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 350 58.21% 42.69 6.521 80.29% -0.406 0.3648
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 150 70.0% 42.95 6.83 70.67% -0.804 0.3634
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 734 64.2% 46.51 8.476 70.03% -0.956 0.1758
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 93 30.11% 26.03 -2.263 87.1% -0.063 -0.1852
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 86 47.67% 31.0 0.062 74.42% -0.954 -0.2384
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 72 40.28% 41.03 5.099 91.67% 0.467 0.9054
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 90 60.0% 40.79 5.182 66.67% -1.134 0.1246
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 86 73.26% 41.33 5.738 60.47% -1.111 0.0293
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 49 75.51% 49.41 9.248 59.18% -1.379 0.6814
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 219 84.02% 45.71 7.738 37.44% -2.285 -0.3494

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 314 47.23% 25.62 -3.114 66.56% -0.832 -0.2549
Dahan Insurrection 4 352 34.6% 51.32 9.38 78.98% -0.216 0.1851
Despicable Theft 2 4 75.0% 45.75 7.432 100.0% 0.705 1.1337
Elemental Invocation 1 31 54.84% 23.74 -3.977 67.74% -0.575 -0.1937
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1307 23.75% 41.05 2.969 66.56% -0.694 -0.3287
Powers Long Forgotten 1 143 57.14% 31.1 -0.368 74.13% -0.367 0.0749
Rituals of Terror 3 98 41.84% 42.74 5.463 81.63% -0.061 0.5671
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 67.8% 32.5 1.134 70.0% -0.783 -0.1329
Second Wave 0 1343 46.67% 30.61 -0.442 76.69% -0.618 -0.2018
The Great River 3 496 51.42% 32.67 0.344 57.26% -1.815 -0.3439
Ward the Shores 2 204 52.48% 32.02 0.115 64.22% -1.13 -0.0939

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 822 32.45 -1.242 63.63% -1.587 0.4832
Aid From Lesser Spirits 894 33.02 -0.929 60.51% -1.777 0.1412
All Things Weaken 357 35.62 -0.169 64.71% -1.432 0.7231
Back Against the Wall 863 32.42 -1.14 61.99% -1.692 0.4045
Disintegrating Ecosystem 839 30.1 -2.476 57.69% -1.773 0.4504
Downward Spiral 2116 28.83 -2.187 64.46% -1.677 0.3399
Erosion of Will 820 30.85 -1.912 59.02% -1.793 0.4166
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 167 39.59 1.806 80.24% -0.506 0.1986
Memory Fades to Dust 1956 28.39 -2.552 59.97% -1.923 0.2918
Power Corrodes the Spirit 340 33.37 -1.366 55.88% -1.752 0.2685
Promising Farmlands 834 29.94 -2.501 57.07% -1.836 0.3766
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 116 38.28 1.348 84.48% -0.416 0.0196
Thriving Communities 330 32.53 -1.741 55.76% -1.796 0.3012
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.31 53.88% -1.98 0.2386
Unnatural Proliferation 370 34.83 -0.398 60.27% -1.623 0.4543
Untended Land Crumbles 360 31.63 -2.013 56.39% -1.927 0.1715

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 10744 41.88% 30.3 -0.811 77.29% -0.143 -1.2329
B 10749 43.6% 31.14 -0.435 77.96% -0.018 -1.2037
C 11816 42.59% 32.78 0.409 77.95% 0.045 -1.3703
D 10734 42.94% 31.7 -0.149 78.11% -0.028 -1.2054
E 2550 46.59% 35.49 0.928 77.76% 0.133 -1.1436
F 4000 41.47% 34.27 0.459 78.7% 0.003 -1.2403
G 3578 42.6% 33.96 0.474 79.99% 0.097 -1.1331
H 3945 39.97% 34.39 0.395 79.04% -0.066 -1.3064

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1825 0.0% 18.7 -4.831 71.18% -2.027 0.0171
Not Using Events or Tokens 5485 37.99% 23.36 -3.019 78.98% -0.146 0.0729
Skip Initial Invader Actions 950 14.09% 31.85 0.987 90.63% 0.386 -0.3185
Start of Game Growth 1364 15.45% 32.97 1.028 90.91% 0.443 -0.0116
Unlimited Undo 3382 32.42% 34.47 1.097 85.19% 0.358 -0.0542
Using Tokens but Not Events 3864 35.46% 34.98 0.659 81.31% 0.117 0.0697

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3437 22.34 28.8%
II 11270 30.75 74.64%
III 10233 34.26 89.85%
IV 4118 37.47 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 596
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7069
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5859
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3239
Lose: Invader deck ran out 330
Lose: Adversary condition 1780
Win: Sacrifice victory 82
Lose: Scenario condition 441
Win: Scenario condition 409
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3569
Lose: Spirit destroyed 243

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)