Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 173 35.84% 29.76 -0.127 86.13% 0.054 0.3361
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 155 44.52% 33.71 2.004 87.74% 0.13 0.5361
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 192 51.04% 37.77 3.916 76.04% -0.798 0.077
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 181 65.19% 39.04 4.658 72.93% -0.894 0.3541
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 137 80.29% 37.28 4.024 45.99% -1.849 -0.3478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 59 81.36% 40.05 5.836 50.85% -1.58 0.3725
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 345 75.94% 41.08 5.605 40.87% -2.205 -0.1626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 924 34.54% 24.79 -2.142 86.8% -0.17 -0.1281
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 773 36.39% 30.21 0.452 89.91% 0.25 0.2311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 967 40.97% 38.9 4.661 87.69% -0.007 0.0035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1047 43.23% 45.22 7.792 86.15% -0.168 0.1191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 953 41.57% 48.14 9.226 85.94% -0.256 0.1114
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 458 55.68% 50.6 10.565 70.09% -1.06 -0.235
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1128 71.17% 50.12 10.375 63.3% -1.361 -0.123
The Kingdom of England 0 1 682 33.94% 24.69 -2.196 85.04% -0.325 0.0072
The Kingdom of England 1 3 427 39.57% 32.11 1.464 80.56% -0.545 -0.0328
The Kingdom of England 2 4 575 45.61% 34.32 2.5 76.35% -0.844 0.122
The Kingdom of England 3 6 675 63.84% 35.46 3.164 56.89% -1.689 -0.1109
The Kingdom of England 4 7 988 49.44% 44.89 7.248 69.64% -1.391 0.1054
The Kingdom of England 5 9 198 64.95% 45.34 7.901 53.54% -1.802 0.2699
The Kingdom of England 6 11 1406 62.72% 44.38 7.25 42.03% -2.504 -0.2554
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 347 40.58% 28.53 -0.776 82.71% -0.486 0.0276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 237 60.52% 30.59 0.463 74.68% -0.684 0.2169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 511 44.99% 33.73 1.82 52.64% -2.191 -0.0495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 474 56.87% 40.46 5.341 55.27% -1.901 0.2955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 310 54.37% 42.53 6.306 50.65% -2.13 0.0281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 161 59.01% 48.93 9.442 55.28% -1.736 0.0785
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1451 51.27% 55.78 12.837 60.72% -1.786 0.3105
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 436 34.42% 24.52 -2.287 89.22% 0.172 0.2567
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 364 41.85% 28.89 -0.086 86.26% 0.071 0.1041
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 505 42.71% 32.59 1.555 85.94% -0.057 0.1776
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 630 55.54% 40.71 5.628 81.9% -0.247 0.0394
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 390 58.66% 42.45 6.423 80.0% -0.409 0.3726
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 171 66.67% 43.58 7.135 72.51% -0.747 0.4185
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 875 65.48% 45.93 8.183 69.03% -0.999 0.1253
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 126 30.16% 26.53 -1.998 87.3% -0.044 -0.148
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 116 49.57% 30.47 -0.059 74.14% -0.855 -0.0774
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 108 49.07% 39.65 4.56 88.89% 0.287 0.7037
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 127 58.27% 41.38 5.359 68.5% -1.095 0.1632
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 125 66.4% 43.66 6.796 65.6% -1.04 0.0747
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 64 71.88% 50.36 9.739 60.94% -1.392 0.6046
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 301 83.39% 46.23 8.021 38.54% -2.247 -0.3672

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 378 48.11% 26.72 -2.741 66.4% -0.826 -0.2575
Dahan Insurrection 4 410 35.77% 50.9 9.121 76.34% -0.302 0.0962
Despicable Theft 2 54 40.74% 34.24 1.534 81.48% -0.417 -0.1595
Elemental Invocation 1 74 58.11% 23.65 -3.643 75.68% -0.421 0.0432
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1600 22.09% 40.79 2.826 67.69% -0.749 -0.3824
Powers Long Forgotten 1 170 55.69% 31.41 -0.218 75.29% -0.328 0.1178
Rituals of Terror 3 121 42.15% 41.32 4.982 80.17% -0.217 0.4274
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 68 70.15% 32.68 1.198 72.06% -0.643 0.0014
Second Wave 0 1561 45.12% 30.69 -0.448 77.13% -0.609 -0.1814
The Great River 3 758 53.97% 32.65 0.446 58.44% -1.664 -0.1931
Ward the Shores 2 233 50.22% 31.89 0.088 65.24% -1.142 -0.109

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 989 32.43 -1.275 62.69% -1.602 0.4717
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1063 33.92 -0.529 61.62% -1.674 0.245
All Things Weaken 497 34.98 -0.589 60.56% -1.604 0.5661
Back Against the Wall 1010 31.94 -1.376 60.0% -1.767 0.3242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 988 30.09 -2.473 57.59% -1.775 0.4506
Downward Spiral 2425 28.7 -2.235 64.16% -1.691 0.3318
Erosion of Will 985 31.0 -1.902 58.38% -1.796 0.4135
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 234 39.16 1.644 78.63% -0.601 0.0852
Memory Fades to Dust 2266 28.38 -2.515 60.11% -1.91 0.3088
Power Corrodes the Spirit 474 33.31 -1.415 56.75% -1.725 0.2975
Promising Farmlands 959 30.1 -2.432 56.83% -1.834 0.3799
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 175 38.43 1.471 85.14% -0.352 0.0585
Thriving Communities 463 32.83 -1.52 57.88% -1.693 0.4022
Tipping Point 425 27.69 -3.268 53.88% -1.963 0.2635
Unnatural Proliferation 530 35.47 -0.101 61.13% -1.589 0.4973
Untended Land Crumbles 502 31.44 -2.162 55.58% -1.939 0.1675

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 12689 42.27% 30.35 -0.824 77.15% -0.138 -0.9208
B 12614 43.07% 31.33 -0.347 78.3% 0.012 -0.8685
C 13773 42.56% 32.87 0.414 77.86% 0.052 -1.06
D 12392 42.92% 31.77 -0.138 78.13% -0.007 -0.8798
E 3711 45.84% 35.68 0.958 77.18% 0.118 -0.8697
F 5130 41.52% 34.11 0.424 78.79% 0.029 -0.9079
G 4545 42.62% 33.56 0.311 79.25% 0.068 -0.86
H 4874 40.14% 33.88 0.2 78.27% -0.113 -1.05

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2033 0.0% 18.57 -4.912 70.68% -2.08 -0.0238
Not Using Events or Tokens 6377 37.69% 23.46 -2.94 79.22% -0.12 0.0959
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1145 13.7% 31.99 0.999 91.0% 0.441 -0.2472
Start of Game Growth 1631 15.71% 32.95 1.044 90.8% 0.45 -0.0192
Unlimited Undo 4030 32.2% 34.08 0.931 85.24% 0.352 -0.0684
Using Tokens but Not Events 4801 33.69% 35.2 0.772 81.92% 0.13 0.0775

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4132 22.35 28.85%
II 13492 30.84 74.28%
III 12266 34.35 89.95%
IV 4974 37.52 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 798
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8882
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7431
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4084
Lose: Invader deck ran out 405
Lose: Adversary condition 2154
Win: Sacrifice victory 98
Lose: Scenario condition 552
Win: Scenario condition 464
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4263
Lose: Spirit destroyed 292

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)