Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 283 21.55% 21.01 -1.119 57.95% -0.341 0.1456
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 209 26.79% 29.64 2.418 74.16% 0.025 0.0442
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 227 30.4% 33.36 5.832 71.81% 0.47 0.6239
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 297 44.78% 36.8 5.97 75.08% 0.134 0.2612
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 348 54.6% 38.77 5.113 62.07% -0.806 -0.3019
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 130 70.77% 38.01 8.906 48.46% -0.937 0.0367
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 552 75.0% 30.45 0.688 30.25% -2.317 -0.3997
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3854 36.77% 25.64 0.424 72.11% -0.266 0.2073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3091 42.9% 28.76 0.047 72.4% -0.529 -0.2381
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3812 55.61% 32.59 1.935 62.7% -0.841 -0.2987
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4385 63.47% 32.96 2.791 55.99% -0.907 0.0391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2988 77.84% 35.08 2.573 46.62% -1.308 -0.0298
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1182 83.25% 35.14 4.585 38.75% -0.988 0.4794
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5109 78.43% 34.1 1.989 32.79% -1.792 0.0054
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16443 32.17% 22.82 -1.286 78.51% -0.112 0.111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12930 35.99% 27.51 0.885 80.68% 0.057 0.0237
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16409 41.8% 35.51 4.706 80.63% 0.204 0.2166
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15886 45.59% 41.64 6.79 79.35% 0.028 0.2694
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11460 46.37% 44.23 7.214 78.25% -0.181 0.0144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6146 55.27% 47.27 5.986 67.72% -0.677 -0.2989
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13811 62.93% 44.93 4.639 56.64% -1.176 0.0646
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13264 31.6% 22.42 -2.307 74.25% -0.422 -0.1124
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8137 39.9% 28.96 0.79 70.58% -0.389 -0.0695
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11178 52.75% 28.53 1.373 60.2% -0.481 -0.0019
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10976 59.02% 31.59 2.175 49.36% -1.058 -0.0186
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11471 51.55% 39.16 5.562 57.19% -0.92 0.0796
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3544 67.86% 35.34 1.273 35.44% -1.973 -0.4623
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14140 63.26% 37.98 -0.13 35.17% -2.315 -0.472
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7727 38.71% 26.84 0.217 75.2% -0.09 0.287
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5169 54.54% 26.97 -0.066 63.42% -0.68 0.1976
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9388 45.38% 32.66 1.797 52.65% -1.091 0.0927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8424 57.45% 36.57 5.003 47.41% -1.077 0.0628
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5883 55.49% 40.94 6.834 49.18% -1.017 0.2925
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2913 59.96% 46.39 5.656 53.66% -1.193 0.0798
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 14073 61.03% 47.32 5.644 48.01% -1.489 -0.0959
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1934 27.51% 19.74 -1.986 60.81% -0.272 0.0477
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1618 33.29% 25.88 2.667 60.75% 0.011 0.499
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2105 39.64% 29.35 1.656 63.66% -0.472 -0.0659
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3133 40.6% 37.33 8.139 67.6% 0.208 0.2364
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2563 45.3% 38.43 6.605 64.38% -0.397 0.1095
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2182 49.54% 40.7 8.82 62.05% -0.369 0.0881
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6973 58.35% 37.29 6.379 43.38% -1.16 -0.0795
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9515 33.65% 22.09 -1.399 76.78% -0.056 0.1867
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6423 36.07% 27.42 0.87 79.32% 0.024 0.0581
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8601 43.07% 29.64 1.248 76.7% -0.144 0.0977
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9156 51.92% 36.28 3.366 74.1% -0.261 -0.0099
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5819 63.44% 36.33 2.307 66.45% -0.76 -0.0054
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2989 65.17% 37.25 0.448 59.32% -1.098 0.0009
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 12373 64.54% 40.63 3.549 59.78% -0.979 -0.0829
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3487 30.02% 23.59 -2.058 73.85% -0.415 -0.1749
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2280 47.12% 25.45 -0.146 61.71% -0.383 0.3715
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2755 43.59% 33.74 3.056 74.7% -0.269 0.099
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3256 62.06% 34.72 1.605 57.59% -1.087 0.0829
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2379 61.66% 39.71 3.751 59.77% -0.999 -0.0418
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1330 79.1% 36.05 2.457 33.08% -1.842 -0.2614
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4622 76.91% 38.05 4.686 30.01% -1.916 -0.3999

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 682 26.83% 23.38 67.3% -0.07 -0.0974 -0.247
Blitz 0 4477 37.79% 26.12 63.39% -0.436 -0.1857 -0.026
Dahan Insurrection 4 4722 24.76% 49.15 78.21% 0.292 0.0431 0.762
Despicable Theft 2 849 39.34% 25.17 51.71% -0.83 -0.3676 -0.928
Elemental Invocation 1 1183 44.55% 22.55 49.96% -0.911 -0.2077 -1.092
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10823 8.22% 40.01 77.7% 0.467 -0.0855 0.583
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1917 48.76% 26.3 57.69% -0.898 -0.2742 -0.908
Rituals of Terror 3 1794 43.08% 34.95 64.99% -0.534 -0.3415 -0.152
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1054 62.25% 28.19 54.84% -0.607 0.3157 -0.939
Second Wave 0 12781 45.72% 29.7 73.04% -0.043 0.0743 0.105
Varied Terrains 2 669 42.75% 23.35 48.13% -0.58 0.1611 -0.59
Ward the Shores 2 1871 43.95% 29.21 55.21% -0.831 0.2532 -0.654

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13688 31.96 57.18% -0.034 0.2152 -0.029
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14345 33.42 59.75% 0.117 -0.0011 0.083
All Things Weaken 8188 30.72 52.74% -0.096 0.2406 -0.171
Attenuated Essence 1785 30.01 53.89% 0.096 0.123 -0.159
Back Against the Wall 14133 31.95 54.73% 0.07 0.0706 -0.132
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1788 29.54 50.39% -0.203 0.0141 -0.274
Burn Brightest Before the End 1775 30.11 48.62% 0.062 0.0435 -0.515
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13277 28.83 52.6% -0.311 0.0819 -0.25
Downward Spiral 30887 24.86 57.67% 0.175 0.2828 -0.02
Erosion of Will 13510 30.35 53.59% -0.075 0.2768 -0.318
Intensifying Exploitation 1833 27.53 47.41% -0.333 -0.0874 -0.386
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3653 35.01 75.39% 0.795 0.2713 0.35
Memory Fades to Dust 30919 24.26 53.76% 0.051 0.2985 -0.138
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8125 30.33 53.8% -0.12 0.1023 -0.231
Promising Farmlands 13858 29.18 53.84% 0.073 0.3561 -0.36
Shattered Fragments of Power 1914 32.53 52.98% 0.133 0.2101 -0.076
Slow Dissolution of Will 1835 28.93 45.67% -0.205 0.1922 -0.411
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2351 35.57 81.03% 0.472 -0.2235 0.881
The Border of Life and Death 500 30.04 64.8% 0.648 0.0474 0.137
Thriving Communities 8014 30.05 53.87% -0.196 0.1601 -0.083
Thriving Crops 861 30.46 58.07% 0.43 0.2333 -0.131
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.281
Unnatural Proliferation 8672 32.35 56.38% -0.015 0.1472 -0.125
Untended Land Crumbles 8303 29.37 51.32% -0.26 -0.029 -0.339

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 167966 43.91% 27.64 66.56% -0.073 0.9321 -0.022
B 170381 44.07% 27.85 66.75% -0.005 0.915 -0.0
C 170823 44.01% 28.02 66.85% -0.014 0.7204 0.031
D 163682 43.99% 27.4 66.54% -0.118 0.86 -0.069
E 72689 45.25% 30.28 66.25% 0.045 0.8646 -0.069
F 92590 44.04% 30.19 68.66% 0.053 0.9266 0.065
G 86646 44.13% 30.11 68.6% 0.074 0.8835 0.067
H 87398 43.74% 30.05 68.43% 0.016 0.8308 -0.016

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 34124 0.0% 12.29 47.85% -1.037 -0.3292 -0.355
Not Using Events or Tokens 101486 40.51% 18.48 60.19% -0.397 -0.0285 -0.916
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11189 17.34% 29.93 82.71% 0.435 -0.1502 1.238
Start of Game Growth 16541 20.4% 29.09 81.11% 0.24 -0.2737 0.282
Unlimited Undo 47710 36.69% 29.59 73.88% 0.261 0.1516 0.314
Using Tokens but Not Events 42453 31.48% 26.97 76.54% 0.032 0.0063 -0.495

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 99719 13.33 9.5%
II 165012 30.1 66.16%
III 166770 34.83 88.1%
IV 74560 38.67 99.63%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9474
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 144494
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 104927
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 73895
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 56318
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4175
Lose: Adversary condition 32116
Win: Sacrifice victory 1069
Lose: Scenario condition 2272
Win: Scenario condition 5998
Lose: Blight pool ran out 67037
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4286

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)