Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1375 39.06% 28.49 -0.807 88.0% 0.046 0.3241
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1064 46.99% 32.49 1.261 85.9% -0.002 0.3922
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1422 60.81% 35.44 2.737 68.99% -0.964 -0.0856
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1680 66.27% 36.32 3.28 63.04% -1.197 0.0546
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1206 82.34% 38.04 4.463 50.0% -1.474 0.0478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 505 87.33% 35.31 3.158 35.05% -2.071 -0.0938
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1922 85.48% 39.45 5.212 38.24% -1.975 0.0747
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9169 31.72% 25.22 -2.107 88.59% 0.133 0.1735
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6092 36.91% 30.07 0.48 89.56% 0.4 0.3705
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7935 44.52% 38.01 4.48 87.33% 0.217 0.2217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8016 47.51% 44.48 7.635 84.78% -0.013 0.2762
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5817 48.95% 46.95 8.856 82.67% -0.185 0.1823
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3691 54.58% 51.85 11.338 74.64% -0.655 0.1748
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6891 62.47% 51.32 10.97 65.56% -1.101 0.14
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7340 32.23% 24.51 -2.462 83.96% -0.301 0.0314
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3764 41.18% 31.77 1.333 78.48% -0.54 -0.0358
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5120 55.22% 31.66 1.35 67.36% -1.012 -0.0439
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5600 63.26% 34.37 2.722 53.25% -1.627 -0.0493
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5533 57.68% 41.17 5.788 59.39% -1.478 0.0199
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1799 71.56% 39.78 5.191 39.8% -2.248 -0.181
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6893 67.42% 43.22 6.912 40.24% -2.313 -0.058
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4584 38.74% 29.31 -0.625 83.64% -0.27 0.2452
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2462 60.54% 29.27 -0.181 70.67% -0.727 0.1691
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5021 47.61% 33.92 1.978 54.21% -1.927 0.2095
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4673 60.39% 38.43 4.428 49.67% -1.908 0.2777
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3276 58.19% 43.01 6.661 52.23% -1.862 0.285
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1472 66.89% 47.66 8.938 53.6% -1.623 0.1967
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7186 63.61% 52.58 11.351 55.41% -1.629 0.4778
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5495 33.53% 24.21 -2.703 86.66% -0.002 0.0831
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3118 37.02% 29.53 0.094 87.72% 0.222 0.2427
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4141 43.79% 32.21 1.446 85.37% 0.046 0.2781
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4630 54.23% 40.03 5.372 81.86% -0.105 0.1809
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3113 67.03% 39.62 5.28 73.02% -0.493 0.2837
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1514 72.78% 39.6 5.319 62.09% -0.971 0.1858
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6020 67.17% 44.91 7.633 67.13% -0.885 0.2469
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 923 30.79% 25.64 -2.552 92.09% 0.311 0.2052
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 646 48.14% 30.91 0.13 78.17% -0.666 0.0771
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 836 45.33% 38.1 3.736 87.68% 0.002 0.4338
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1091 66.18% 39.73 4.757 66.64% -1.067 0.1818
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 830 67.11% 43.33 6.577 65.54% -1.092 0.0348
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 589 85.06% 38.09 4.127 32.77% -2.32 -0.3008
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1412 83.5% 47.64 8.581 38.81% -2.085 -0.1802

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2666 45.19% 30.07 -1.039 72.32% -0.472 0.1008
Dahan Insurrection 4 3736 27.92% 51.98 10.034 81.5% -0.125 0.2746
Despicable Theft 2 111 49.55% 34.2 1.359 73.87% -0.487 -0.2048
Elemental Invocation 1 255 55.69% 30.66 -0.621 69.8% -0.497 -0.0573
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8390 8.53% 40.91 3.936 82.75% -0.591 -0.225
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1313 59.22% 31.84 0.475 70.68% -0.318 0.123
Rituals of Terror 3 1257 48.87% 39.33 4.737 72.79% -0.334 0.3094
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 722 74.62% 34.79 2.482 66.9% -0.405 0.2363
Second Wave 0 8874 47.85% 30.79 -0.184 75.3% -0.518 -0.09
Ward the Shores 2 1311 49.81% 33.59 1.038 63.23% -1.03 0.0068

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7774 32.09 -1.488 57.33% -1.89 0.1832
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8185 33.57 -0.748 59.98% -1.781 0.1377
All Things Weaken 2972 32.08 -1.551 55.99% -1.939 0.2197
Back Against the Wall 8125 32.05 -1.531 54.63% -2.01 0.0841
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7335 29.27 -2.973 52.65% -2.081 0.1431
Downward Spiral 17369 26.15 -2.894 61.44% -1.893 0.1279
Erosion of Will 7643 30.99 -2.101 54.13% -2.046 0.1628
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1329 37.36 1.086 81.19% -0.693 -0.0008
Memory Fades to Dust 17389 25.49 -3.231 57.13% -2.103 0.1158
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2892 31.44 -1.902 55.84% -1.925 0.0955
Promising Farmlands 7932 29.36 -2.781 54.66% -2.029 0.1859
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 815 36.93 1.148 85.64% -0.373 0.0385
Thriving Communities 2805 31.12 -2.1 55.08% -1.957 0.1362
Tipping Point 3798 29.23 -2.859 51.79% -2.156 0.0691
Unnatural Proliferation 3194 33.18 -0.966 58.33% -1.818 0.2716
Untended Land Crumbles 2925 30.85 -2.191 53.88% -2.0 0.1054

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 84578 46.54% 30.79 -0.26 74.87% -0.036 -1.1483
B 86620 46.36% 30.91 -0.187 74.91% -0.028 -1.2361
C 86097 46.28% 31.09 -0.05 75.12% 0.012 -1.4272
D 83786 46.25% 30.67 -0.249 75.22% -0.006 -1.208
E 21604 49.92% 33.86 0.283 73.81% -0.027 -1.3397
F 37166 45.89% 33.63 0.434 76.7% 0.069 -1.1967
G 35567 46.39% 33.54 0.403 76.24% 0.031 -1.2258
H 35710 45.59% 33.39 0.304 76.34% 0.007 -1.2586

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 14846 0.0% 16.75 -5.476 65.28% -2.259 -0.2051
Not Using Events or Tokens 47399 44.76% 22.66 -3.274 74.54% -0.203 0.0146
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5820 15.74% 30.73 1.192 90.67% 0.724 0.0301
Start of Game Growth 8127 20.28% 30.51 0.572 88.51% 0.379 -0.084
Unlimited Undo 22551 38.75% 32.85 0.787 81.76% 0.335 -0.0855
Using Tokens but Not Events 20896 32.4% 29.84 -1.051 83.78% 0.091 0.0384

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 27193 22.34 20.96%
II 85451 30.81 69.14%
III 84794 34.31 88.04%
IV 38126 37.5 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4050
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57071
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41444
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 29484
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2194
Lose: Adversary condition 16386
Win: Sacrifice victory 500
Lose: Scenario condition 1455
Win: Scenario condition 3872
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35845
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2320

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)