Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2487 39.61% 28.85 0.6 84.0% -0.01 0.2185
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1965 47.23% 31.55 -0.017 80.31% -0.425 -0.0378
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2513 59.71% 35.56 2.495 69.0% -0.632 0.1097
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2940 67.67% 35.85 2.149 61.12% -0.97 0.078
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1939 81.95% 38.34 3.693 51.11% -1.33 0.0048
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 884 88.46% 36.47 3.66 38.12% -1.515 0.1701
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3400 84.53% 38.8 -0.192 37.47% -2.226 -0.2008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12262 32.77% 24.99 -1.484 86.88% -0.184 -0.0657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9145 36.44% 29.81 0.639 87.65% 0.105 0.0217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11744 43.86% 37.89 3.922 86.33% 0.023 0.0049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11431 46.73% 44.28 6.4 84.35% -0.089 0.137
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8480 48.1% 46.85 8.882 82.72% 0.13 0.2079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4724 55.77% 51.54 9.889 74.53% -0.294 0.1803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9878 64.94% 49.76 5.799 62.68% -1.092 0.2051
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9811 32.84% 24.46 -2.49 82.26% -0.531 -0.2904
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5650 40.34% 31.72 1.223 77.81% -0.352 -0.1721
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7584 54.82% 31.42 0.757 66.43% -0.809 -0.0881
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7940 62.24% 34.26 2.042 53.58% -1.046 0.096
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8561 53.92% 41.92 4.579 61.25% -0.892 0.1
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2462 72.03% 39.52 2.112 39.93% -1.899 -0.2994
The Kingdom of England 6 11 9997 67.59% 42.61 0.804 39.5% -2.308 -0.2594
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6011 39.27% 29.04 -1.467 82.23% -0.566 -0.1619
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3700 57.86% 29.32 -0.44 69.81% -0.834 0.1687
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7128 47.39% 34.42 3.304 55.27% -0.891 0.2101
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6325 60.05% 38.44 5.119 49.75% -1.012 0.3342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4513 57.51% 42.65 4.85 51.5% -1.378 0.0514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2114 63.7% 48.45 9.165 55.01% -0.989 -0.1026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10438 63.88% 51.27 5.251 52.7% -1.532 -0.2053
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 567 29.15% 24.77 -1.448 79.37% -0.129 -0.1707
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 517 35.2% 29.71 1.541 69.44% -0.297 0.1046
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 633 44.46% 33.57 2.798 71.72% -0.205 0.1743
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1026 42.01% 40.82 5.548 74.27% -0.405 -0.0218
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 826 47.7% 43.58 8.634 73.73% -0.037 0.5511
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 602 58.64% 45.74 9.606 69.1% -0.163 0.607
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1921 68.23% 42.98 2.546 46.8% -1.699 -0.4339
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7264 34.87% 24.01 -1.747 84.55% -0.024 0.1363
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4635 37.39% 29.48 0.908 86.02% 0.116 0.1532
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6178 44.56% 31.94 1.028 83.17% -0.213 0.0216
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6539 54.86% 39.53 2.746 80.59% -0.456 -0.0614
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4299 66.94% 39.15 2.957 71.57% -0.671 -0.0822
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2150 69.84% 40.3 3.502 64.23% -0.819 0.1131
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8922 68.2% 44.02 2.792 64.68% -1.015 -0.1708
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2015 32.21% 26.99 -0.926 88.14% 0.109 0.1967
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1357 51.14% 30.2 -0.129 73.91% -0.487 0.0926
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1727 47.42% 37.43 3.77 83.56% -0.046 0.2899
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1984 64.95% 39.2 1.235 65.57% -1.191 -0.0567
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1482 65.86% 43.52 7.305 65.59% -0.566 0.4458
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 958 84.66% 38.9 7.124 35.18% -0.803 0.6469
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2861 81.96% 45.04 -1.648 36.39% -2.481 -0.5557

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 258 31.4% 27.33 78.68% 0.263 0.0391 -0.28
Blitz 0 2981 42.94% 29.45 71.05% -0.08 0.0657 -0.089
Dahan Insurrection 4 3543 27.06% 52.55 81.74% 1.365 1.1135 0.697
Despicable Theft 2 419 46.3% 32.17 66.11% -0.879 -0.1089 -1.073
Elemental Invocation 1 613 53.18% 30.05 65.58% -0.551 0.2069 -0.778
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8451 7.98% 42.26 82.76% 0.985 0.3585 0.439
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1306 56.93% 31.25 68.45% -0.473 0.0483 -0.807
Rituals of Terror 3 1292 48.63% 39.36 71.83% -0.003 0.0463 -0.254
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 737 71.35% 33.24 64.45% -1.307 -0.3 -0.861
Second Wave 0 9665 45.99% 30.4 75.57% 0.024 0.0837 -0.214
Varied Terrains 2 213 51.17% 29.98 64.32% -0.62 -0.0942 -1.176
Ward the Shores 2 1344 48.31% 33.57 62.72% -0.807 0.3434 -0.585

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10981 32.47 58.14% 0.059 0.2484 -0.501
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11543 33.78 60.37% 0.211 0.1574 -0.473
All Things Weaken 5664 32.1 55.61% -0.338 0.0626 -0.61
Attenuated Essence 199 29.65 52.76% 0.125 0.2466 -0.931
Back Against the Wall 11425 32.29 54.96% -0.014 0.0741 -0.666
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 213 27.01 43.19% -0.403 -0.0948 -1.058
Burn Brightest Before the End 171 30.14 49.12% -0.119 0.1018 -1.288
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10471 29.58 53.61% -0.18 0.2538 -0.767
Downward Spiral 23554 26.1 60.19% -0.013 0.249 -0.567
Erosion of Will 10775 30.98 54.49% -0.229 0.1041 -0.809
Intensifying Exploitation 223 27.59 44.84% -0.245 0.0796 -1.224
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2494 37.32 79.75% 0.444 -0.0855 0.027
Memory Fades to Dust 23711 25.55 56.38% -0.153 0.252 -0.635
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5572 31.24 54.88% -0.077 0.1655 -0.742
Promising Farmlands 11120 29.69 54.69% -0.143 0.3668 -0.859
Shattered Fragments of Power 222 30.87 53.15% -0.108 -0.0192 -0.527
Slow Dissolution of Will 181 28.05 44.2% -0.265 0.1795 -1.401
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1611 37.36 85.47% 0.829 0.1914 0.531
The Border of Life and Death 62 31.37 70.97% 0.698 0.3666 -0.073
Thriving Communities 5462 31.3 55.36% -0.065 0.3151 -0.612
Thriving Crops 115 32.75 62.61% 0.435 0.4076 -0.551
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.799
Unnatural Proliferation 6133 33.29 57.79% 0.179 0.3966 -0.678
Untended Land Crumbles 5741 30.51 52.8% -0.275 0.0082 -0.832

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 117758 46.4% 30.63 73.77% -0.012 0.837 -0.032
B 120265 46.42% 30.75 73.75% -0.032 0.7824 -0.012
C 120442 46.23% 30.91 73.88% -0.058 0.6256 0.009
D 115644 46.21% 30.36 73.92% -0.055 0.7682 -0.037
E 43260 48.6% 33.45 72.91% 0.147 0.7938 -0.068
F 60731 46.24% 33.04 75.23% -0.004 0.7426 0.047
G 57605 46.25% 32.94 74.97% -0.023 0.738 0.077
H 58002 45.89% 32.83 74.92% 0.014 0.6998 0.004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20591 0.0% 16.01 62.46% -1.127 -0.2998 -0.805
Not Using Events or Tokens 65314 44.03% 22.23 72.45% -0.476 -0.1441 -0.712
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8192 17.33% 31.48 88.92% 0.182 -0.3967 0.783
Start of Game Growth 11683 21.14% 30.96 87.21% 0.238 -0.0359 0.171
Unlimited Undo 32875 38.67% 32.36 80.36% -0.169 -0.1796 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 29906 32.3% 29.25 82.53% 0.198 0.1294 -0.364

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43986 20.77 17.69%
II 122481 31.02 68.29%
III 124396 34.74 88.25%
IV 55998 38.04 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7777
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107752
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80164
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55469
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5829
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3126
Lose: Adversary condition 24262
Win: Sacrifice victory 810
Lose: Scenario condition 1866
Win: Scenario condition 5011
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51522
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3273

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-04 02:47:44 (Pacific Time)