Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3069 38.05% 27.08 -0.164 77.84% -0.236 0.2088
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2490 44.9% 29.83 0.541 75.66% -0.322 -0.0146
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3139 57.47% 33.71 1.6 65.24% -0.812 -0.037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3601 65.02% 34.23 0.708 58.23% -1.318 -0.3503
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2483 79.9% 35.98 3.246 47.76% -1.321 0.1051
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1006 85.49% 35.56 4.701 37.97% -1.026 0.4098
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4090 81.49% 36.32 0.621 35.04% -2.178 -0.082
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14032 32.46% 23.89 -1.828 82.68% -0.362 -0.122
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10898 36.17% 28.57 0.729 83.87% 0.131 0.2461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 13840 43.2% 36.64 3.485 83.37% -0.073 0.0357
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13519 45.95% 43.0 7.83 82.02% 0.166 0.3884
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9637 47.83% 45.78 7.684 80.99% -0.125 0.164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5257 55.44% 49.62 6.531 71.47% -0.94 -0.3463
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11628 63.73% 47.31 4.964 59.61% -1.355 0.1304
The Kingdom of England 0 1 11343 32.0% 23.48 -2.241 78.31% -0.424 -0.0958
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6690 39.69% 30.54 2.162 74.93% -0.111 0.1924
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9082 53.43% 29.96 1.142 63.12% -0.762 -0.0339
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9294 60.56% 32.87 2.248 51.41% -1.233 -0.0382
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9754 53.49% 40.31 3.452 58.67% -1.293 -0.0749
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2909 70.72% 37.37 -0.767 37.33% -2.709 -1.0372
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11544 65.55% 40.79 3.002 37.92% -2.049 0.0117
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6742 38.97% 27.89 -2.728 78.57% -0.93 -0.3753
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4316 56.01% 28.23 0.327 66.89% -0.597 0.0845
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8149 46.21% 33.57 1.532 54.03% -1.156 -0.0538
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7252 58.8% 37.51 3.869 48.66% -1.4 -0.0085
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5150 56.51% 41.88 6.372 50.31% -1.318 0.1481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2477 61.47% 47.37 7.319 54.18% -1.249 -0.1778
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11920 62.44% 49.51 5.76 50.6% -1.687 -0.2672
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1124 26.98% 21.5 -1.972 66.28% -0.376 -0.1297
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 992 33.4% 26.4 1.013 63.0% -0.395 0.236
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1351 40.22% 30.47 2.285 66.25% -0.232 0.2296
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1908 40.25% 37.66 4.882 68.4% -0.48 -0.0142
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1571 45.0% 40.02 5.749 67.28% -0.63 0.1708
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1120 55.63% 42.13 8.815 63.04% -0.371 0.1933
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4035 61.87% 38.7 4.584 44.24% -1.487 -0.5195
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8303 34.58% 23.06 -2.61 80.53% -0.474 -0.2699
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5374 36.49% 28.57 0.831 83.14% 0.126 0.1618
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7225 44.48% 30.8 0.961 79.97% -0.229 -0.0147
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 7676 53.09% 37.88 3.091 77.36% -0.428 -0.068
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5031 65.23% 37.68 2.728 68.95% -0.834 -0.1355
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2524 67.36% 38.74 5.484 61.33% -0.497 0.299
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10556 65.91% 42.12 2.883 62.03% -1.161 -0.0547
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2647 31.09% 25.16 -1.742 80.43% -0.309 -0.1392
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1780 49.38% 27.46 -2.673 66.97% -1.113 -0.273
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2217 45.47% 35.18 2.297 78.35% -0.269 -0.0496
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2558 62.65% 36.84 3.962 61.69% -0.743 0.3529
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1881 63.48% 41.19 5.407 61.99% -0.759 0.2168
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1146 81.15% 37.37 -0.059 34.47% -1.838 -0.1704
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3582 78.87% 40.97 -1.003 32.61% -2.73 -1.0619

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 436 26.83% 25.13 72.25% -0.06 -0.0084 -0.382
Blitz 0 3691 39.97% 27.62 66.73% -0.196 0.0052 -0.022
Dahan Insurrection 4 4155 25.6% 51.04 80.58% 0.515 0.3035 0.749
Despicable Theft 2 608 44.24% 28.06 56.58% -1.163 -0.3181 -1.015
Elemental Invocation 1 872 47.94% 25.37 56.31% -0.934 0.1372 -0.927
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9576 8.22% 40.98 80.13% 0.078 -0.6472 0.587
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1587 51.95% 28.76 63.14% -0.772 0.1337 -0.841
Rituals of Terror 3 1533 45.42% 36.76 68.23% -0.889 -0.8593 -0.2
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 893 65.43% 29.83 57.67% -2.08 -0.8912 -1.012
Second Wave 0 11077 45.97% 30.05 74.35% 0.143 0.2239 0.047
Varied Terrains 2 419 44.87% 24.54 51.07% -0.986 -0.0852 -0.765
Ward the Shores 2 1567 46.18% 31.32 58.9% -0.832 0.223 -0.586

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12210 32.21 57.67% 0.131 0.2698 -0.221
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12759 33.6 60.22% 0.229 0.1694 -0.139
All Things Weaken 6778 31.22 53.92% -0.279 0.076 -0.338
Attenuated Essence 814 30.03 54.42% 0.037 0.1482 -0.556
Back Against the Wall 12646 32.07 54.82% 0.088 0.1641 -0.361
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 850 29.18 50.59% 0.375 0.5862 -0.485
Burn Brightest Before the End 807 29.3 48.82% -0.098 0.0224 -0.684
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11714 29.17 53.18% 0.012 0.3808 -0.459
Downward Spiral 26698 25.46 58.97% 0.041 0.2372 -0.238
Erosion of Will 12016 30.68 54.15% -0.008 0.2594 -0.526
Intensifying Exploitation 905 27.84 46.52% -0.313 -0.0429 -0.615
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3001 35.92 77.31% 0.474 -0.0366 0.246
Memory Fades to Dust 26935 24.84 55.0% -0.165 0.1462 -0.358
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6632 30.77 54.52% -0.103 0.1918 -0.44
Promising Farmlands 12366 29.45 54.37% -0.056 0.2798 -0.575
Shattered Fragments of Power 860 31.79 52.44% 0.047 0.1555 -0.222
Slow Dissolution of Will 810 28.91 47.53% -0.089 0.3111 -0.525
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1921 36.32 82.56% 0.798 0.1848 0.728
The Border of Life and Death 264 29.31 62.12% 0.003 -0.289 -0.179
Thriving Communities 6628 30.59 54.71% 0.055 0.388 -0.254
Thriving Crops 433 29.84 53.81% -0.102 -0.1886 -0.295
Tipping Point 3800 29.22 51.76% -0.513
Unnatural Proliferation 7212 32.82 57.21% 0.179 0.327 -0.341
Untended Land Crumbles 6879 29.85 52.13% -0.048 0.2591 -0.541

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 140105 45.07% 28.98 69.87% -0.023 0.882 -0.034
B 142437 45.22% 29.16 70.04% 0.002 0.8309 0.003
C 142599 45.13% 29.36 70.17% -0.011 0.6686 0.019
D 137018 44.98% 28.75 70.0% -0.008 0.8456 -0.046
E 55639 46.79% 31.65 69.24% -0.074 0.6275 -0.08
F 74381 45.03% 31.46 71.76% 0.063 0.8443 0.058
G 70275 45.14% 31.38 71.49% 0.048 0.8195 0.069
H 70779 44.79% 31.33 71.43% -0.022 0.7464 -0.003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27268 0.0% 13.68 53.37% -1.224 -0.3933 -0.589
Not Using Events or Tokens 82062 42.04% 20.04 65.42% -0.405 0.0357 -0.767
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9758 17.78% 30.45 84.95% 0.423 -0.1393 0.969
Start of Game Growth 14183 20.95% 29.69 83.43% 0.632 0.0936 0.302
Unlimited Undo 39704 37.84% 30.92 76.73% 0.023 0.0644 0.296
Using Tokens but Not Events 35307 31.69% 27.96 79.46% 0.025 0.0012 -0.376

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 68446 16.23 12.4%
II 141028 30.54 67.2%
III 142893 34.77 88.14%
IV 64265 38.37 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8485
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 123711
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 90896
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 63674
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 28018
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3601
Lose: Adversary condition 27612
Win: Sacrifice victory 913
Lose: Scenario condition 2063
Win: Scenario condition 5543
Lose: Blight pool ran out 58391
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3725

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)