Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 58 18.97% 20.67 -1.4 68.97% 0.003 -0.1339
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 67 28.36% 33.81 4.749 89.55% 0.897 0.268
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 56 28.57% 33.32 4.342 73.21% -0.137 -0.2232
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 72 59.72% 39.03 6.808 81.94% 0.362 0.1808
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 90 51.11% 41.8 8.275 68.89% -0.334 0.1923
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 36 66.67% 40.25 7.044 55.56% -1.036 -0.0251
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 126 72.22% 37.55 6.173 44.44% -1.3 0.4539
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3558 36.72% 25.98 -1.846 73.75% -0.679 -0.2993
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2907 43.24% 29.1 1.445 73.48% -0.191 0.1741
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3561 56.02% 32.87 3.464 63.69% -0.318 0.2491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4089 63.96% 33.39 2.993 57.01% -0.681 0.1007
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2832 78.28% 35.42 1.842 47.07% -1.448 0.1486
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1143 83.9% 35.27 4.04 38.67% -1.142 0.372
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4759 79.26% 34.6 -1.244 33.16% -2.484 -0.525
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 15522 32.25% 23.23 -1.46 80.07% -0.171 0.0032
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12149 36.16% 27.92 1.462 81.92% 0.254 0.2852
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15466 42.2% 35.87 3.477 81.43% -0.02 0.1246
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14939 45.58% 42.07 5.199 80.25% -0.191 0.0983
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10825 46.43% 44.71 7.93 79.1% 0.122 0.3961
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5817 55.29% 48.19 4.681 69.21% -1.068 -0.7528
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12987 63.13% 45.81 7.496 57.76% -0.689 0.5672
The Kingdom of England 0 1 12515 31.53% 22.82 -1.744 75.71% -0.378 0.0491
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7528 39.38% 29.54 -0.252 71.92% -0.687 -0.0918
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10236 52.58% 29.13 1.381 61.34% -0.588 0.0235
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10321 59.75% 32.0 0.466 49.98% -1.341 -0.1982
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10827 52.36% 39.43 5.297 57.52% -0.772 0.227
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3313 68.6% 36.07 0.463 36.19% -2.094 -0.6051
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13162 64.19% 39.03 1.135 36.22% -1.974 -0.1013
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7388 38.69% 27.11 -1.76 75.97% -0.686 -0.1682
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4870 54.72% 27.18 -2.5 64.09% -1.118 -0.3037
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8904 45.57% 32.97 1.792 53.19% -1.164 0.0739
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7938 58.04% 36.91 3.908 47.85% -1.259 0.0024
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5646 55.85% 41.12 3.028 49.27% -1.46 -0.1616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2791 60.57% 46.82 7.793 54.07% -1.001 0.1059
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13281 61.11% 48.0 3.41 48.91% -1.751 -0.2653
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1625 26.85% 20.13 -2.737 62.28% -0.354 -0.0241
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1443 33.56% 25.77 2.388 60.57% -0.012 0.2959
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1859 40.1% 29.66 2.742 64.39% -0.052 0.2575
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2707 40.23% 37.16 6.535 67.34% -0.195 0.0662
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2291 44.87% 38.67 4.406 64.73% -0.848 0.0118
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1889 49.34% 40.79 8.774 62.15% -0.3 0.2503
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5972 58.43% 37.33 5.621 43.55% -1.239 -0.0874
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9040 33.97% 22.39 -1.89 77.98% -0.201 0.0423
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6001 36.17% 27.76 0.45 80.52% 0.148 0.3271
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8127 43.39% 30.0 1.354 77.72% 0.029 0.273
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8578 52.07% 36.83 3.538 75.2% -0.321 0.1514
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5534 63.78% 36.77 4.966 67.28% -0.273 0.4813
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2844 66.0% 37.87 2.576 60.27% -0.762 0.2694
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11748 64.66% 41.16 4.325 60.56% -0.902 0.1067
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3203 30.0% 24.06 -0.694 75.62% 0.014 0.2674
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2120 47.4% 25.83 -1.937 62.64% -0.763 -0.0127
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2563 44.44% 33.89 3.546 75.3% -0.032 0.461
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3029 62.52% 35.24 3.249 58.5% -0.924 -0.1005
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2201 62.06% 40.35 6.193 60.88% -0.779 0.1709
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1273 79.42% 36.38 1.948 33.23% -1.986 -0.0166
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4279 77.4% 38.66 -0.609 30.45% -2.517 -0.6826

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 580 25.34% 24.12 69.66% 0.699 0.0041 -0.465
Blitz 0 4172 38.68% 26.59 64.38% -0.611 -0.1958 -0.005
Dahan Insurrection 4 4500 24.97% 49.83 79.07% 0.613 0.0682 0.795
Despicable Theft 2 773 41.14% 25.92 53.3% -0.245 0.2808 -1.027
Elemental Invocation 1 1079 45.04% 23.16 51.62% -1.569 -0.8201 -1.123
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10331 8.17% 40.3 78.5% 0.337 -0.3271 0.62
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1804 49.55% 27.0 59.53% -0.787 -0.1817 -0.882
Rituals of Terror 3 1696 43.58% 35.48 66.1% -0.061 -0.1256 -0.138
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1000 62.81% 28.63 55.3% -0.939 -0.162 -0.895
Second Wave 0 12202 45.75% 29.81 73.59% 0.066 0.1683 0.103
Varied Terrains 2 581 43.89% 23.73 48.36% -0.513 0.2276 -0.591
Ward the Shores 2 1754 44.55% 29.85 56.44% -0.697 0.0841 -0.625

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13134 32.11 57.39% 0.347 0.4707 -0.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 13744 33.5 60.01% 0.159 0.0568 0.016
All Things Weaken 7657 30.94 53.06% -0.362 -0.1571 -0.197
Attenuated Essence 1378 29.74 54.14% 0.283 0.3555 -0.255
Back Against the Wall 13565 32.07 54.88% 0.29 0.2802 -0.187
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1400 29.78 51.07% -0.008 0.1855 -0.348
Burn Brightest Before the End 1411 29.66 47.77% -0.374 -0.2524 -0.57
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12669 29.0 52.92% -0.036 0.2742 -0.295
Downward Spiral 29069 25.12 58.06% 0.032 0.1508 -0.088
Erosion of Will 12958 30.48 53.76% -0.013 0.1714 -0.367
Intensifying Exploitation 1490 27.73 48.12% 0.109 0.3107 -0.426
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3386 35.23 75.81% 0.282 -0.1296 0.317
Memory Fades to Dust 29244 24.49 54.09% -0.209 0.0327 -0.191
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7493 30.69 54.2% 0.2 0.277 -0.257
Promising Farmlands 13304 29.2 53.97% -0.048 0.3228 -0.427
Shattered Fragments of Power 1503 32.35 52.83% 0.351 0.4686 -0.112
Slow Dissolution of Will 1418 28.62 44.92% -0.484 0.0171 -0.493
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2200 35.89 81.59% 1.286 0.7073 0.841
The Border of Life and Death 407 29.91 63.88% 0.243 -0.1349 0.157
Thriving Communities 7463 30.3 54.16% 0.147 0.4074 -0.129
Thriving Crops 696 30.16 56.18% 0.58 0.3969 -0.147
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.197 -0.0829 -0.347
Unnatural Proliferation 8067 32.56 56.76% -0.012 0.1378 -0.169
Untended Land Crumbles 7744 29.55 51.43% -0.021 0.2305 -0.387

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 157139 44.21% 28.14 67.71% -0.133 0.8131 -0.029
B 159471 44.31% 28.35 67.92% -0.034 0.8304 -0.002
C 159770 44.26% 28.49 68.0% 0.006 0.7155 0.021
D 153359 44.2% 27.91 67.76% -0.052 0.8166 -0.048
E 66191 45.57% 30.71 67.2% 0.01 0.6872 -0.081
F 85524 44.21% 30.63 69.63% 0.038 0.8241 0.066
G 80512 44.26% 30.53 69.54% 0.113 0.8998 0.079
H 81190 43.91% 30.46 69.33% 0.03 0.7854 -0.02

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 31015 0.0% 12.82 49.81% -1.139 -0.4321 -0.44
Not Using Events or Tokens 93396 40.64% 19.06 62.0% -0.41 0.0905 -0.837
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10596 17.55% 30.25 83.81% 0.606 -0.0078 1.215
Start of Game Growth 15689 20.41% 29.38 82.18% 0.431 -0.0758 0.291
Unlimited Undo 44710 37.02% 30.08 74.95% 0.366 0.3201 0.321
Using Tokens but Not Events 39466 31.64% 27.41 77.67% 0.144 -0.0004 -0.467

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 87889 14.3 10.39%
II 155714 30.3 66.6%
III 157477 34.84 88.14%
IV 70493 38.61 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9126
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 136447
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 99601
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 69854
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 45636
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3949
Lose: Adversary condition 30441
Win: Sacrifice victory 995
Lose: Scenario condition 2194
Win: Scenario condition 5820
Lose: Blight pool ran out 63453
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4057

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-19 05:31:50 (Pacific Time)