Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2288 40.0% 29.22 -0.07 85.49% -0.201 0.3073
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1756 47.72% 32.46 1.192 82.74% -0.493 -0.0897
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2269 60.58% 36.19 1.331 70.25% -1.389 -0.211
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2661 68.11% 36.41 3.223 62.19% -1.066 0.3597
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1750 82.91% 38.88 4.845 52.17% -1.397 0.1834
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 811 88.53% 36.7 5.105 38.35% -1.224 0.712
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3070 86.38% 40.12 6.128 38.83% -1.827 0.4439
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11653 32.84% 25.27 -2.267 88.02% -0.026 -0.0726
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8457 36.9% 30.21 0.087 89.0% 0.164 -0.0685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10989 43.89% 38.32 4.201 87.43% 0.091 0.2807
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 10749 47.16% 44.71 7.108 85.23% -0.131 0.2354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8042 48.24% 47.17 8.833 83.37% -0.127 0.2313
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4512 55.83% 51.84 10.27 74.89% -0.793 0.3739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9292 65.18% 50.55 10.686 63.72% -1.026 0.4206
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9289 33.04% 24.8 -1.715 83.56% -0.545 0.0122
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5199 40.72% 32.13 0.953 78.96% -0.527 0.1515
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7090 55.4% 31.85 0.606 67.45% -1.161 -0.0072
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7431 63.22% 34.64 2.256 54.03% -1.89 -0.2131
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8022 54.59% 42.35 6.972 61.74% -1.287 0.1807
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2314 71.93% 39.97 8.267 40.41% -1.544 0.4992
The Kingdom of England 6 11 9317 68.25% 43.66 5.327 40.75% -2.647 -0.0838
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5717 39.63% 29.38 -0.646 83.35% -0.617 0.0559
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3393 59.03% 29.78 0.609 71.35% -0.395 0.6769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6742 47.67% 34.6 2.868 55.47% -1.648 0.4666
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5985 60.64% 38.66 3.392 49.94% -2.296 -0.166
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4252 58.0% 43.06 5.96 52.05% -2.039 0.3063
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1992 64.34% 48.72 11.245 55.22% -1.093 0.9725
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9810 64.66% 52.06 10.079 53.49% -1.944 0.2302
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 319 31.35% 27.6 -1.884 88.09% -0.028 -0.1218
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 272 39.71% 31.87 -0.697 74.26% -1.413 -0.5227
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 370 44.99% 36.1 1.204 77.3% -1.092 0.1105
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 554 44.04% 44.08 6.466 80.51% -0.388 0.4715
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 487 50.51% 44.17 6.725 72.9% -0.866 0.3517
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 335 66.27% 47.13 8.975 68.36% -0.867 0.3716
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1080 71.46% 50.79 10.019 56.2% -1.28 0.2772
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6883 35.09% 24.29 -1.959 85.57% 0.097 0.2675
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4309 37.85% 29.68 -0.404 86.77% -0.086 0.1336
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5713 44.81% 32.42 0.738 84.63% -0.326 -0.0461
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6173 55.07% 40.03 3.457 81.71% -0.58 -0.128
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3987 67.79% 39.64 3.477 72.81% -0.804 0.1963
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2027 70.28% 40.71 7.749 65.07% -0.239 0.8016
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8320 69.0% 44.9 6.069 66.11% -1.264 -0.1059
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1817 32.58% 27.43 -0.32 89.82% 0.54 0.0877
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1181 52.08% 31.17 -0.759 76.38% -0.825 -0.0219
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1518 47.89% 38.16 3.84 85.51% 0.016 0.4526
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1778 66.46% 40.34 4.509 67.66% -1.05 0.1894
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1326 68.17% 43.81 6.441 65.91% -0.926 0.2166
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 903 85.71% 38.75 1.792 34.0% -2.533 -0.3983
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2525 83.72% 47.7 6.836 38.73% -2.381 -0.4102

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 146 39.04% 27.79 80.82% -0.596 -0.1005 -0.16
Blitz 0 2728 44.34% 29.68 72.58% 0.287 0.7304 -0.115
Dahan Insurrection 4 3350 27.54% 52.56 81.46% -0.01 0.0874 0.602
Despicable Theft 2 347 47.26% 34.01 70.61% -0.842 -0.3431 -1.199
Elemental Invocation 1 528 55.87% 31.11 67.05% 0.479 1.0248 -0.713
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7862 7.99% 42.26 83.11% -0.575 -0.3434 0.286
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1219 57.89% 32.05 70.3% 0.649 1.0568 -0.786
Rituals of Terror 3 1204 48.61% 39.67 72.76% -0.945 -1.181 -0.307
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 673 73.69% 34.74 67.31% 0.504 0.7297 -0.746
Second Wave 0 8964 46.42% 30.58 76.08% -0.568 0.1249 -0.22
Varied Terrains 2 122 59.02% 35.41 75.41% -0.745 0.0413 -0.202
Ward the Shores 2 1245 48.54% 34.34 64.26% -0.482 0.3987 -0.506

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10463 32.55 58.32% -1.624 0.3472 -0.697
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10999 33.86 60.43% -1.665 0.1125 -0.667
All Things Weaken 5159 32.41 56.25% -1.753 0.2954 -0.809
Back Against the Wall 10868 32.34 54.89% -1.934 0.0055 -0.876
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9924 29.73 53.84% -1.692 0.4363 -0.968
Downward Spiral 22431 26.28 60.63% -2.022 -0.061 -0.741
Erosion of Will 10267 31.13 54.75% -1.686 0.396 -1.003
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2256 37.91 80.54% -0.496 0.0059 -0.136
Memory Fades to Dust 22575 25.73 56.75% -2.205 -0.0642 -0.837
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5119 31.63 55.34% -1.883 0.098 -0.93
Promising Farmlands 10593 29.8 54.89% -2.009 0.013 -1.054
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1477 37.63 86.19% -0.492 0.0043 0.387
Thriving Communities 4974 31.5 55.91% -1.771 0.2883 -0.809
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.979
Unnatural Proliferation 5577 33.44 57.93% -1.46 0.4973 -0.898
Untended Land Crumbles 5246 30.9 53.49% -1.964 0.0694 -1.014

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 110242 46.77% 31.07 74.91% 0.036 0.7725 -0.025
B 112662 46.82% 31.19 74.89% 0.042 0.7395 -0.019
C 112585 46.66% 31.34 75.03% 0.031 0.5007 0.01
D 108324 46.57% 30.82 75.1% 0.019 0.7282 -0.029
E 38227 49.55% 34.24 74.25% 0.044 0.5886 -0.07
F 55329 46.62% 33.64 76.65% 0.016 0.6779 0.044
G 52588 46.78% 33.51 76.2% -0.06 0.5707 0.079
H 53046 46.46% 33.39 76.12% -0.106 0.5583 -0.002

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19050 0.0% 16.65 65.0% -2.25 -0.0211 -1.369
Not Using Events or Tokens 61426 44.27% 22.79 74.28% -0.478 -0.2517 -0.711
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7520 15.9% 31.66 90.92% 1.277 0.2968 -0.031
Start of Game Growth 10733 20.57% 31.24 88.88% -0.164 -0.6211 0.184
Unlimited Undo 30185 38.86% 33.02 82.1% 0.122 -0.4291 0.422
Using Tokens but Not Events 27827 32.42% 29.73 83.49% -0.121 0.034 -0.393

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36895 22.65 20.27%
II 114898 31.08 68.6%
III 116826 34.66 88.23%
IV 52877 37.91 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7477
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 101144
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 75485
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 52372
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2936
Lose: Adversary condition 22821
Win: Sacrifice victory 752
Lose: Scenario condition 1798
Win: Scenario condition 4801
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48786
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3124

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)