Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2489 39.58% 28.84 0.486 83.97% -0.037 0.2068
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1967 47.23% 31.55 -0.035 80.33% -0.424 -0.0149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2520 59.71% 35.5 2.17 68.89% -0.7 0.0586
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2943 67.63% 35.83 2.052 61.06% -0.992 0.0542
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1946 81.96% 38.36 4.051 51.13% -1.273 0.0514
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 884 88.46% 36.47 3.69 38.12% -1.515 0.1999
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3419 84.5% 38.64 -0.679 37.32% -2.292 -0.2444
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12272 32.77% 24.99 -1.404 86.86% -0.174 -0.0625
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9159 36.42% 29.81 0.678 87.63% 0.102 0.0176
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11756 43.85% 37.88 3.914 86.31% 0.027 0.0103
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11448 46.7% 44.27 6.557 84.34% -0.05 0.1848
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8489 48.1% 46.85 9.019 82.74% 0.172 0.2569
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4734 55.82% 51.48 9.36 74.42% -0.391 0.1027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9888 64.92% 49.75 5.845 62.69% -1.084 0.2235
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9818 32.83% 24.45 -2.578 82.24% -0.559 -0.3188
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5657 40.31% 31.7 1.217 77.78% -0.35 -0.1775
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7593 54.8% 31.41 0.898 66.42% -0.785 -0.051
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7943 62.22% 34.25 2.103 53.57% -1.017 0.112
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8569 53.91% 41.9 4.454 61.23% -0.896 0.102
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2464 71.98% 39.5 1.63 39.89% -1.968 -0.3408
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10008 67.57% 42.6 0.743 39.51% -2.321 -0.2609
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6018 39.22% 29.03 -1.434 82.24% -0.537 -0.1397
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3700 57.86% 29.32 -0.371 69.81% -0.822 0.1621
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7134 47.37% 34.42 3.34 55.27% -0.883 0.2252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6334 60.06% 38.43 4.857 49.73% -1.054 0.3013
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4519 57.48% 42.62 4.491 51.43% -1.46 -0.0249
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2114 63.7% 48.45 9.222 55.01% -0.981 -0.1224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10446 63.9% 51.27 5.396 52.7% -1.506 -0.1846
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 568 29.28% 24.77 -1.438 79.4% -0.112 -0.1563
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 520 35.58% 29.65 1.481 69.42% -0.296 0.1236
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 645 44.25% 33.58 3.017 71.94% -0.151 0.2207
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1030 42.14% 40.83 5.506 74.37% -0.398 -0.0151
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 832 47.72% 43.47 8.611 73.44% -0.042 0.566
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 604 58.61% 45.76 9.709 69.04% -0.138 0.6143
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1933 68.12% 42.92 2.512 46.77% -1.706 -0.4293
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7273 34.83% 24.0 -1.762 84.52% -0.041 0.1195
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4645 37.35% 29.48 1.084 86.01% 0.152 0.1719
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6188 44.5% 31.93 1.123 83.16% -0.183 0.0411
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6546 54.85% 39.51 2.658 80.55% -0.461 -0.0476
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4305 66.87% 39.14 2.957 71.57% -0.671 -0.0809
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2154 69.75% 40.3 3.585 64.25% -0.799 0.1175
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8933 68.15% 44.01 2.803 64.66% -1.017 -0.1772
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2019 32.19% 26.96 -1.123 88.01% 0.043 0.1552
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1362 51.1% 30.25 0.305 74.01% -0.394 0.1549
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1729 47.37% 37.42 3.678 83.52% -0.075 0.2703
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1989 64.89% 39.14 0.904 65.46% -1.241 -0.1001
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1484 65.84% 43.51 7.309 65.57% -0.562 0.4433
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 960 84.69% 38.86 6.532 35.1% -0.925 0.5167
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2870 81.99% 45.0 -1.394 36.34% -2.45 -0.5182

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 260 31.92% 27.39 78.85% 0.302 0.0363 -0.28
Blitz 0 2984 42.91% 29.43 71.05% -0.078 0.0784 -0.093
Dahan Insurrection 4 3544 27.08% 52.54 81.72% 1.343 1.075 0.696
Despicable Theft 2 419 46.3% 32.17 66.11% -0.864 -0.1016 -1.071
Elemental Invocation 1 613 53.18% 30.05 65.58% -0.534 0.2275 -0.776
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8459 7.98% 42.26 82.75% 0.973 0.3405 0.445
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1309 56.88% 31.24 68.45% -0.411 0.122 -0.806
Rituals of Terror 3 1292 48.63% 39.36 71.83% -0.084 0.0182 -0.253
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 737 71.35% 33.24 64.45% -1.301 -0.2951 -0.859
Second Wave 0 9673 45.95% 30.39 75.57% 0.04 0.1062 -0.211
Varied Terrains 2 219 51.14% 29.85 63.93% -0.561 0.0172 -1.1
Ward the Shores 2 1346 48.32% 33.52 62.63% -0.803 0.3519 -0.586

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10989 32.46 58.14% 0.081 0.2709 -0.5
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11549 33.78 60.36% 0.202 0.1377 -0.471
All Things Weaken 5675 32.07 55.56% -0.335 0.0514 -0.616
Attenuated Essence 206 29.61 51.94% 0.118 0.2238 -1.049
Back Against the Wall 11429 32.28 54.95% -0.014 0.0485 -0.663
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 217 26.97 43.32% -0.369 -0.0863 -1.078
Burn Brightest Before the End 176 30.6 50.0% -0.063 0.1285 -1.172
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10484 29.57 53.59% -0.21 0.2216 -0.766
Downward Spiral 23567 26.1 60.19% 0.008 0.2683 -0.564
Erosion of Will 10784 30.98 54.48% -0.208 0.1212 -0.809
Intensifying Exploitation 230 28.43 46.09% -0.172 0.1265 -1.12
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2494 37.32 79.75% 0.428 -0.0701 0.03
Memory Fades to Dust 23726 25.55 56.38% -0.117 0.2775 -0.633
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5576 31.24 54.88% -0.054 0.1908 -0.739
Promising Farmlands 11128 29.69 54.69% -0.113 0.374 -0.855
Shattered Fragments of Power 229 30.2 51.97% -0.132 -0.0547 -0.614
Slow Dissolution of Will 183 27.93 44.81% -0.232 0.2017 -1.333
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1614 37.31 85.38% 0.756 0.124 0.521
The Border of Life and Death 64 32.25 71.88% 0.781 0.4204 0.078
Thriving Communities 5468 31.3 55.38% -0.054 0.3236 -0.609
Thriving Crops 119 33.16 63.03% 0.491 0.4343 -0.47
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.797
Unnatural Proliferation 6147 33.28 57.77% 0.189 0.3891 -0.674
Untended Land Crumbles 5748 30.5 52.82% -0.249 0.0211 -0.828

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 117925 46.39% 30.62 73.74% -0.018 0.8437 -0.031
B 120414 46.4% 30.74 73.72% -0.039 0.7888 -0.012
C 120580 46.2% 30.9 73.86% -0.058 0.6307 0.01
D 115775 46.2% 30.35 73.9% -0.053 0.7746 -0.037
E 43384 48.57% 33.42 72.86% 0.145 0.8037 -0.071
F 60833 46.23% 33.02 75.2% -0.0 0.7521 0.048
G 57693 46.24% 32.93 74.94% -0.024 0.7459 0.078
H 58088 45.88% 32.82 74.91% 0.027 0.7165 0.004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20623 0.0% 15.99 62.4% -1.145 -0.3196 -0.805
Not Using Events or Tokens 65380 44.01% 22.22 72.42% -0.475 -0.138 -0.711
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8200 17.33% 31.48 88.89% 0.16 -0.4475 0.82
Start of Game Growth 11698 21.14% 30.95 87.19% 0.23 -0.0481 0.177
Unlimited Undo 32930 38.65% 32.34 80.31% -0.173 -0.1726 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 29947 32.3% 29.24 82.51% 0.2 0.1299 -0.357

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 44168 20.73 17.62%
II 122593 31.02 68.3%
III 124538 34.75 88.25%
IV 56054 38.04 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7782
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107881
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80246
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55524
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5982
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3128
Lose: Adversary condition 24288
Win: Sacrifice victory 811
Lose: Scenario condition 1867
Win: Scenario condition 5011
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51556
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3277

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-05 04:04:23 (Pacific Time)