Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2853 38.38% 27.62 -0.707 79.67% -0.367 -0.0501
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2319 45.54% 30.3 1.484 76.93% -0.121 0.1324
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2906 58.19% 34.29 2.014 66.48% -0.644 0.0814
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3408 65.91% 34.79 2.726 59.33% -0.813 0.2262
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2343 80.32% 36.31 1.483 48.1% -1.49 -0.1403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 954 86.58% 35.64 5.067 37.32% -0.919 0.4
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3842 82.46% 36.96 -0.168 35.63% -2.184 -0.1538
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 13481 32.51% 24.18 -1.833 83.89% -0.226 -0.0249
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10312 36.23% 28.91 0.162 84.79% -0.041 -0.0734
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 13138 43.22% 37.05 4.673 84.33% 0.183 0.1268
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 12847 46.28% 43.3 6.607 82.6% 0.022 0.2462
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9272 48.01% 46.1 8.145 81.49% 0.043 0.2955
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5107 55.56% 50.05 6.248 72.16% -0.802 -0.1547
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11018 63.88% 48.02 6.055 60.69% -0.975 0.3582
The Kingdom of England 0 1 10889 32.02% 23.77 -0.693 79.45% -0.2 0.0043
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6318 39.79% 30.88 1.994 75.82% -0.039 0.211
The Kingdom of England 2 4 8593 53.9% 30.33 0.48 63.96% -0.778 -0.0666
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8835 61.14% 33.17 1.403 51.85% -1.18 0.0635
The Kingdom of England 4 7 9431 53.34% 40.67 2.875 59.3% -1.233 0.0433
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2718 70.84% 38.38 2.073 38.89% -1.733 -0.199
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11022 65.85% 41.31 3.207 38.49% -1.602 0.4078
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6474 38.97% 28.35 -0.477 80.06% -0.368 0.0685
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4100 56.87% 28.53 -0.367 67.66% -0.674 0.1632
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7762 46.66% 33.87 2.356 54.43% -1.003 0.0582
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6939 59.24% 37.82 3.937 49.14% -1.21 0.1668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4967 56.9% 42.07 6.115 50.55% -1.258 0.2752
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2359 62.04% 47.74 14.323 54.51% -0.116 0.6847
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11431 62.86% 50.07 5.447 51.23% -1.624 -0.135
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 905 27.77% 22.29 -1.628 69.5% -0.24 -0.049
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 829 33.41% 26.92 0.978 64.05% -0.172 0.2185
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1109 40.52% 31.15 3.413 67.36% -0.023 0.3125
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1605 40.81% 38.43 5.732 70.03% -0.272 0.0103
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1333 45.69% 40.91 5.534 69.02% -0.587 0.3229
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 946 57.19% 42.69 5.586 63.64% -0.783 0.0509
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3203 64.21% 39.81 5.983 45.02% -1.219 -0.108
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7958 34.85% 23.39 -1.917 81.88% -0.206 -0.0371
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5136 36.51% 28.78 0.219 83.88% 0.032 0.1633
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6900 44.69% 31.09 1.692 80.83% -0.04 0.1036
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 7286 53.82% 38.35 4.048 78.27% -0.154 0.2975
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4787 65.75% 38.19 3.576 69.94% -0.526 0.1149
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2386 68.37% 39.05 3.281 61.53% -0.927 0.0685
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9842 67.14% 43.03 5.504 63.32% -0.643 0.3569
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2398 31.56% 25.83 -0.466 83.07% 0.033 0.0365
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1622 50.19% 28.33 -0.94 69.24% -0.549 0.1994
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2045 45.97% 35.99 3.565 80.24% 0.076 0.4886
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2396 63.3% 37.15 2.569 62.1% -0.936 0.1688
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1752 64.16% 41.72 4.893 62.73% -0.825 0.1995
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1091 82.4% 37.86 4.086 34.74% -1.413 0.2813
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3350 79.49% 42.19 1.815 33.76% -2.115 -0.0976

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 369 27.64% 25.72 74.53% 0.011 -0.1425 -0.757
Blitz 0 3459 40.77% 28.16 67.68% -0.305 -0.1149 -0.012
Dahan Insurrection 4 3934 26.01% 51.59 81.09% 0.855 0.6437 0.756
Despicable Theft 2 538 44.42% 29.26 60.04% -0.427 0.1595 -0.963
Elemental Invocation 1 773 49.68% 26.88 58.86% -0.986 -0.1736 -0.874
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9229 8.25% 41.46 81.23% 0.557 -0.2166 0.532
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1477 53.89% 29.54 65.0% -0.92 -0.0872 -0.852
Rituals of Terror 3 1459 46.37% 37.59 69.64% 0.1 0.2179 -0.232
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 832 67.75% 31.26 60.58% -1.314 -0.2292 -0.95
Second Wave 0 10583 46.1% 30.03 74.68% -0.041 0.1281 -0.069
Varied Terrains 2 343 48.69% 26.43 55.1% -1.183 -0.5005 -0.692
Ward the Shores 2 1488 46.92% 31.96 59.88% -0.896 -0.0035 -0.595

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11815 32.25 57.8% 0.339 0.4883 -0.311
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12385 33.63 60.35% 0.484 0.3819 -0.218
All Things Weaken 6395 31.45 54.54% -0.298 0.0185 -0.391
Attenuated Essence 616 30.84 56.82% 0.387 0.4559 -0.573
Back Against the Wall 12279 32.15 54.8% 0.298 0.3349 -0.444
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 642 28.48 48.91% -0.013 0.125 -0.722
Burn Brightest Before the End 588 28.89 47.79% -0.155 -0.0121 -0.756
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11309 29.26 53.29% -0.097 0.2869 -0.539
Downward Spiral 25679 25.61 59.33% 0.151 0.2805 -0.326
Erosion of Will 11612 30.75 54.24% 0.016 0.2765 -0.608
Intensifying Exploitation 681 28.31 47.87% -0.113 0.115 -0.628
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2836 36.27 77.93% 0.474 -0.0932 0.214
Memory Fades to Dust 25921 24.99 55.33% -0.144 0.1148 -0.424
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6271 30.98 54.92% 0.507 0.6566 -0.488
Promising Farmlands 11960 29.51 54.43% 0.018 0.3645 -0.637
Shattered Fragments of Power 664 31.71 52.86% 0.204 0.3477 -0.298
Slow Dissolution of Will 613 28.61 47.31% -0.175 0.2482 -0.61
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1807 36.48 83.12% 0.159 -0.4966 0.615
The Border of Life and Death 191 29.67 63.35% 0.145 -0.299 -0.138
Thriving Communities 6236 30.68 54.62% -0.105 0.1901 -0.346
Thriving Crops 333 30.04 55.86% 0.059 -0.0615 -0.335
Tipping Point 3800 29.22 51.76% -0.592
Unnatural Proliferation 6807 32.95 57.29% 0.037 0.2107 -0.414
Untended Land Crumbles 6482 29.92 52.36% -0.143 0.1197 -0.622

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 133001 45.48% 29.39 70.84% -0.066 1.0182 -0.035
B 135357 45.55% 29.53 70.99% 0.006 0.9944 -0.002
C 135603 45.45% 29.75 71.13% 0.007 0.8406 0.018
D 130184 45.35% 29.13 71.0% -0.075 0.9279 -0.05
E 51418 47.24% 32.16 70.43% 0.054 0.8791 -0.073
F 70005 45.3% 31.85 72.67% 0.017 0.9982 0.045
G 66268 45.46% 31.78 72.42% 0.048 0.9684 0.079
H 66631 45.14% 31.74 72.45% -0.011 0.9133 0.005

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25464 0.0% 14.15 55.2% -1.132 -0.5259 -0.735
Not Using Events or Tokens 76947 42.66% 20.5 66.96% -0.438 0.0837 -0.757
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9321 17.94% 30.63 85.87% 1.06 0.3785 1.037
Start of Game Growth 13430 21.28% 29.99 84.37% 0.247 -0.1206 0.243
Unlimited Undo 37610 38.23% 31.3 77.67% 0.233 0.2369 0.321
Using Tokens but Not Events 33406 31.84% 28.32 80.34% -0.083 -0.0404 -0.395

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 60973 17.34 13.56%
II 134931 30.66 67.52%
III 136799 34.73 88.19%
IV 61536 38.23 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8265
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 118468
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 87369
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 60968
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 21261
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3415
Lose: Adversary condition 26448
Win: Sacrifice victory 886
Lose: Scenario condition 1993
Win: Scenario condition 5353
Lose: Blight pool ran out 56236
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3577

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-06 03:35:30 (Pacific Time)