Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1160 39.15% 28.46 -0.858 87.93% 0.038 0.3212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 900 48.33% 32.36 1.209 85.67% 0.005 0.399
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1209 60.27% 35.43 2.673 68.65% -0.993 -0.1318
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1438 66.09% 36.12 3.164 62.31% -1.224 0.0264
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1055 82.65% 37.45 4.183 48.82% -1.535 -0.0004
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 432 86.81% 34.43 2.716 32.87% -2.183 -0.1149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1590 84.84% 40.05 5.538 39.62% -1.913 0.1646
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8323 31.74% 25.25 -2.123 88.53% 0.126 0.1691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5512 37.14% 30.08 0.449 89.44% 0.395 0.3693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7159 44.27% 38.07 4.489 87.3% 0.211 0.2109
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7280 47.5% 44.44 7.601 84.64% -0.022 0.271
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 5308 48.68% 46.83 8.783 82.31% -0.216 0.1548
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3487 54.37% 51.85 11.32 74.45% -0.673 0.1651
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6384 61.91% 51.39 10.981 65.65% -1.107 0.1416
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6751 32.22% 24.51 -2.486 83.72% -0.32 0.0104
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3427 41.45% 31.79 1.33 78.44% -0.534 -0.0443
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4673 55.07% 31.67 1.358 67.26% -1.016 -0.0517
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5151 63.44% 34.37 2.699 53.19% -1.625 -0.0445
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4981 58.42% 40.66 5.556 58.18% -1.524 -0.0101
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1661 71.67% 39.76 5.164 39.67% -2.251 -0.18
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6103 67.64% 43.17 6.872 40.06% -2.317 -0.0601
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4245 38.61% 29.37 -0.609 83.53% -0.272 0.253
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2240 60.51% 29.29 -0.167 70.45% -0.729 0.1592
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4638 47.58% 33.92 1.965 54.08% -1.932 0.1955
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4357 60.61% 38.46 4.432 49.76% -1.896 0.2886
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3062 58.08% 43.11 6.701 52.48% -1.854 0.2973
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1301 67.46% 47.98 9.099 54.27% -1.574 0.2522
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6507 62.93% 52.83 11.441 55.82% -1.626 0.5021
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5026 33.37% 24.24 -2.717 86.63% -0.006 0.0818
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2884 37.0% 29.57 0.102 87.73% 0.229 0.2395
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3755 43.64% 32.29 1.476 85.51% 0.065 0.2844
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4234 53.94% 40.02 5.363 81.51% -0.127 0.1558
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2854 66.81% 39.53 5.231 72.6% -0.522 0.2485
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1393 73.51% 39.23 5.154 60.95% -1.004 0.1635
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5480 66.23% 45.18 7.725 67.54% -0.875 0.2567
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 738 28.3% 25.74 -2.563 92.95% 0.363 0.2404
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 507 47.92% 31.21 0.222 79.49% -0.583 0.132
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 670 44.78% 38.11 3.653 87.31% -0.049 0.3891
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 905 66.19% 39.71 4.649 66.3% -1.118 0.1413
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 728 66.76% 42.98 6.336 64.56% -1.166 -0.0259
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 501 84.03% 38.05 4.063 32.53% -2.357 -0.2959
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1123 83.79% 46.98 8.224 37.76% -2.153 -0.2172

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2445 45.48% 29.94 -1.084 72.47% -0.458 0.1191
Dahan Insurrection 4 3479 28.46% 51.98 9.983 81.06% -0.141 0.2593
Despicable Theft 2 25 40.0% 31.08 -0.016 68.0% -0.987 -0.5578
Elemental Invocation 1 135 56.3% 30.78 -0.585 73.33% -0.312 0.0691
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7854 8.48% 40.68 3.821 82.58% -0.607 -0.2414
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1212 59.46% 31.9 0.493 70.54% -0.305 0.1365
Rituals of Terror 3 1166 48.4% 39.28 4.703 72.73% -0.315 0.3127
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 672 75.11% 34.83 2.476 66.22% -0.405 0.2444
Second Wave 0 7960 48.6% 30.87 -0.137 74.59% -0.525 -0.1089
Ward the Shores 2 1220 49.42% 33.36 0.917 62.79% -1.058 -0.0213

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7105 32.21 -1.476 57.34% -1.886 0.1845
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7433 33.5 -0.81 59.77% -1.788 0.1302
All Things Weaken 2398 31.88 -1.663 55.34% -1.961 0.1934
Back Against the Wall 7417 32.11 -1.529 54.54% -2.008 0.0886
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6708 29.15 -3.039 52.53% -2.09 0.1336
Downward Spiral 15994 26.24 -2.877 61.49% -1.883 0.134
Erosion of Will 6945 30.82 -2.207 53.69% -2.065 0.1451
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1057 37.2 0.994 80.51% -0.715 -0.0106
Memory Fades to Dust 15946 25.55 -3.226 57.17% -2.094 0.1209
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2345 31.62 -1.855 55.82% -1.915 0.1046
Promising Farmlands 7258 29.3 -2.837 54.52% -2.03 0.1827
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 671 37.7 1.455 85.99% -0.303 0.1327
Thriving Communities 2275 31.05 -2.137 55.12% -1.951 0.1465
Tipping Point 3795 29.21 -2.896 51.75% -2.157 0.0611
Unnatural Proliferation 2580 33.22 -0.967 58.45% -1.804 0.2738
Untended Land Crumbles 2416 30.97 -2.176 53.89% -1.978 0.1207

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 77516 46.5% 30.83 -0.266 74.78% -0.032 -1.1216
B 79485 46.35% 30.95 -0.189 74.82% -0.026 -1.2117
C 78901 46.32% 31.13 -0.058 74.96% 0.01 -1.4053
D 76923 46.18% 30.73 -0.24 75.17% -0.0 -1.1775
E 17556 49.86% 33.86 0.253 73.54% -0.042 -1.3186
F 32416 45.51% 33.82 0.492 76.74% 0.078 -1.1647
G 31148 45.98% 33.64 0.424 76.24% 0.03 -1.2005
H 31471 45.35% 33.46 0.309 76.2% 0.004 -1.2363

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 13357 0.0% 16.7 -5.507 64.74% -2.264 -0.22
Not Using Events or Tokens 42910 45.16% 22.7 -3.298 74.33% -0.208 0.0109
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5187 16.21% 30.56 1.063 90.11% 0.687 -0.0171
Start of Game Growth 7100 20.41% 30.52 0.556 87.89% 0.327 -0.1274
Unlimited Undo 20338 39.03% 33.19 0.912 81.52% 0.352 -0.06
Using Tokens but Not Events 19065 32.49% 29.78 -1.082 83.5% 0.087 0.039

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24754 22.34 21.19%
II 77693 30.75 69.28%
III 76231 34.26 87.94%
IV 34030 37.47 99.48%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3597
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 49577
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 36405
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25416
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1997
Lose: Adversary condition 14744
Win: Sacrifice victory 441
Lose: Scenario condition 1371
Win: Scenario condition 3585
Lose: Blight pool ran out 32519
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2113

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)