Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1075 39.04% 28.57 -0.807 88.19% 0.068 0.3483
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 816 49.14% 32.25 1.189 85.54% 0.017 0.3902
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1112 59.86% 35.69 2.772 69.42% -0.956 -0.108
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1303 65.64% 36.41 3.282 63.24% -1.183 0.0551
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 965 82.59% 37.12 4.051 48.08% -1.561 -0.0388
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 411 86.86% 33.89 2.447 31.39% -2.255 -0.2274
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1455 84.47% 40.23 5.622 40.0% -1.899 0.1929
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7963 31.75% 25.26 -2.112 88.47% 0.13 0.177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5255 37.35% 30.11 0.468 89.44% 0.405 0.3769
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 6837 44.59% 38.09 4.498 87.29% 0.222 0.2191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6999 47.45% 44.48 7.615 84.75% -0.01 0.2745
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 5064 48.71% 46.76 8.747 82.07% -0.227 0.1512
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3396 54.07% 51.92 11.353 74.56% -0.663 0.1701
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6169 61.77% 51.43 10.997 65.68% -1.101 0.1481
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6466 32.32% 24.5 -2.492 83.65% -0.32 0.0131
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3266 41.37% 31.85 1.362 78.63% -0.518 -0.035
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4457 54.92% 31.78 1.421 67.47% -0.999 -0.0416
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4971 63.6% 34.3 2.673 52.97% -1.626 -0.0484
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4767 58.78% 40.39 5.426 57.48% -1.548 -0.0261
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1582 72.03% 39.52 5.045 39.0% -2.271 -0.2071
The Kingdom of England 6 11 5813 67.57% 43.14 6.861 39.96% -2.318 -0.0629
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4130 38.59% 29.41 -0.593 83.54% -0.268 0.2563
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2139 60.61% 29.32 -0.144 70.5% -0.716 0.1748
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4466 47.49% 33.89 1.949 53.87% -1.939 0.1891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4193 60.29% 38.5 4.455 49.82% -1.896 0.2904
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2937 58.08% 43.14 6.718 52.54% -1.846 0.2996
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1246 67.71% 48.04 9.152 54.41% -1.548 0.2706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6183 62.85% 52.93 11.481 56.04% -1.616 0.5191
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 4851 33.31% 24.26 -2.71 86.77% 0.012 0.0974
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2776 36.82% 29.6 0.125 87.68% 0.234 0.2431
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3602 43.64% 32.29 1.494 85.45% 0.072 0.2891
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4068 53.91% 40.1 5.4 81.69% -0.109 0.1754
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2746 67.54% 39.32 5.153 72.07% -0.531 0.246
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1329 73.59% 39.23 5.128 60.8% -1.006 0.1591
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5286 65.96% 45.19 7.719 67.5% -0.876 0.2565
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 654 27.11% 25.78 -2.579 92.97% 0.341 0.2236
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 438 47.72% 31.38 0.313 80.59% -0.502 0.1862
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 601 43.93% 38.19 3.644 87.19% -0.083 0.3529
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 807 64.93% 39.67 4.616 65.92% -1.148 0.1267
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 669 66.37% 43.09 6.347 64.57% -1.181 -0.0233
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 460 84.57% 38.32 4.229 33.26% -2.301 -0.2648
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1014 83.53% 47.62 8.485 38.86% -2.118 -0.1684

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2340 45.34% 30.02 -1.061 72.52% -0.45 0.1225
Dahan Insurrection 4 3359 28.82% 52.0 9.984 80.83% -0.147 0.2542
Elemental Invocation 1 95 56.84% 28.32 -1.631 71.58% -0.547 -0.0817
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7597 8.34% 40.57 3.789 82.73% -0.605 -0.2298
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1156 59.4% 31.97 0.532 70.93% -0.292 0.1552
Rituals of Terror 3 1133 48.13% 39.37 4.737 72.73% -0.311 0.3108
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 648 74.65% 35.05 2.57 66.67% -0.389 0.2355
Second Wave 0 7715 48.7% 30.84 -0.149 74.61% -0.525 -0.106
Ward the Shores 2 1182 49.74% 33.38 0.925 62.77% -1.054 -0.0239

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 6786 32.27 -1.465 57.43% -1.887 0.1807
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7159 33.53 -0.807 59.83% -1.79 0.1265
All Things Weaken 2178 31.81 -1.721 55.0% -1.986 0.1742
Back Against the Wall 7121 32.19 -1.5 54.8% -2.0 0.0923
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6431 29.23 -3.014 52.68% -2.087 0.1342
Downward Spiral 15413 26.26 -2.867 61.55% -1.876 0.138
Erosion of Will 6626 30.76 -2.24 53.71% -2.07 0.1418
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 969 37.21 0.991 80.6% -0.707 0.0046
Memory Fades to Dust 15324 25.54 -3.229 57.12% -2.093 0.1232
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2128 31.45 -1.961 55.17% -1.955 0.0652
Promising Farmlands 7004 29.26 -2.862 54.51% -2.037 0.178
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 615 37.77 1.471 86.34% -0.284 0.1326
Thriving Communities 2070 31.07 -2.146 54.93% -1.97 0.1368
Tipping Point 3795 29.21 -2.904 51.75% -2.159 0.0572
Unnatural Proliferation 2323 33.06 -1.051 57.86% -1.832 0.2487
Untended Land Crumbles 2187 30.83 -2.267 53.64% -2.008 0.0871

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 74510 46.52% 30.83 -0.269 74.76% -0.032 -1.1056
B 76492 46.33% 30.97 -0.186 74.78% -0.028 -1.1921
C 75836 46.27% 31.14 -0.062 74.92% 0.005 -1.392
D 74030 46.2% 30.74 -0.246 75.12% -0.004 -1.1621
E 15963 49.74% 33.92 0.261 73.7% -0.033 -1.2901
F 30459 45.49% 33.87 0.509 76.8% 0.084 -1.1417
G 29334 45.9% 33.67 0.424 76.23% 0.026 -1.1867
H 29542 45.14% 33.54 0.33 76.29% 0.004 -1.2175

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 12683 0.0% 16.67 -5.505 64.42% -2.266 -0.2268
Not Using Events or Tokens 40828 45.54% 22.64 -3.323 74.1% -0.214 0.0059
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5013 16.4% 30.62 1.089 90.05% 0.698 -0.0077
Start of Game Growth 6830 20.38% 30.58 0.584 87.85% 0.33 -0.1289
Unlimited Undo 19503 39.14% 33.27 0.934 81.39% 0.349 -0.0537
Using Tokens but Not Events 18326 32.51% 29.74 -1.104 83.37% 0.081 0.035

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23756 22.34 21.42%
II 74268 30.71 69.32%
III 72639 34.23 87.93%
IV 32420 37.48 99.47%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3440
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 46462
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 34148
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 23820
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1907
Lose: Adversary condition 14047
Win: Sacrifice victory 422
Lose: Scenario condition 1320
Win: Scenario condition 3456
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31084
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2034

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)