Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 258 31.4% 27.33 78.68% 0.263 0.0391 -0.28
Blitz 0 2981 42.94% 29.45 71.05% -0.08 0.0657 -0.089
Dahan Insurrection 4 3543 27.06% 52.55 81.74% 1.365 1.1135 0.697
Despicable Theft 2 419 46.3% 32.17 66.11% -0.879 -0.1089 -1.073
Elemental Invocation 1 613 53.18% 30.05 65.58% -0.551 0.2069 -0.778
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8451 7.98% 42.26 82.76% 0.985 0.3585 0.439
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1306 56.93% 31.25 68.45% -0.473 0.0483 -0.807
Rituals of Terror 3 1292 48.63% 39.36 71.83% -0.003 0.0463 -0.254
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 737 71.35% 33.24 64.45% -1.307 -0.3 -0.861
Second Wave 0 9665 45.99% 30.4 75.57% 0.024 0.0837 -0.214
Varied Terrains 2 213 51.17% 29.98 64.32% -0.62 -0.0942 -1.176
Ward the Shores 2 1344 48.31% 33.57 62.72% -0.807 0.3434 -0.585

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10981 32.47 58.14% 0.059 0.2484 -0.501
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11543 33.78 60.37% 0.211 0.1574 -0.473
All Things Weaken 5664 32.1 55.61% -0.338 0.0626 -0.61
Attenuated Essence 199 29.65 52.76% 0.125 0.2466 -0.931
Back Against the Wall 11425 32.29 54.96% -0.014 0.0741 -0.666
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 213 27.01 43.19% -0.403 -0.0948 -1.058
Burn Brightest Before the End 171 30.14 49.12% -0.119 0.1018 -1.288
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10471 29.58 53.61% -0.18 0.2538 -0.767
Downward Spiral 23554 26.1 60.19% -0.013 0.249 -0.567
Erosion of Will 10775 30.98 54.49% -0.229 0.1041 -0.809
Intensifying Exploitation 223 27.59 44.84% -0.245 0.0796 -1.224
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2494 37.32 79.75% 0.444 -0.0855 0.027
Memory Fades to Dust 23711 25.55 56.38% -0.153 0.252 -0.635
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5572 31.24 54.88% -0.077 0.1655 -0.742
Promising Farmlands 11120 29.69 54.69% -0.143 0.3668 -0.859
Shattered Fragments of Power 222 30.87 53.15% -0.108 -0.0192 -0.527
Slow Dissolution of Will 181 28.05 44.2% -0.265 0.1795 -1.401
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1611 37.36 85.47% 0.829 0.1914 0.531
The Border of Life and Death 62 31.37 70.97% 0.698 0.3666 -0.073
Thriving Communities 5462 31.3 55.36% -0.065 0.3151 -0.612
Thriving Crops 115 32.75 62.61% 0.435 0.4076 -0.551
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.799
Unnatural Proliferation 6133 33.29 57.79% 0.179 0.3966 -0.678
Untended Land Crumbles 5741 30.51 52.8% -0.275 0.0082 -0.832

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 117758 46.4% 30.63 73.77% -0.012 0.837 -0.032
B 120265 46.42% 30.75 73.75% -0.032 0.7824 -0.012
C 120442 46.23% 30.91 73.88% -0.058 0.6256 0.009
D 115644 46.21% 30.36 73.92% -0.055 0.7682 -0.037
E 43260 48.6% 33.45 72.91% 0.147 0.7938 -0.068
F 60731 46.24% 33.04 75.23% -0.004 0.7426 0.047
G 57605 46.25% 32.94 74.97% -0.023 0.738 0.077
H 58002 45.89% 32.83 74.92% 0.014 0.6998 0.004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20591 0.0% 16.01 62.46% -1.127 -0.2998 -0.805
Not Using Events or Tokens 65314 44.03% 22.23 72.45% -0.476 -0.1441 -0.712
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8192 17.33% 31.48 88.92% 0.182 -0.3967 0.783
Start of Game Growth 11683 21.14% 30.96 87.21% 0.238 -0.0359 0.171
Unlimited Undo 32875 38.67% 32.36 80.36% -0.169 -0.1796 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 29906 32.3% 29.25 82.53% 0.198 0.1294 -0.364

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43986 20.77 17.69%
II 122481 31.02 68.29%
III 124396 34.74 88.25%
IV 55998 38.04 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7777
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107752
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80164
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55469
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5829
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3126
Lose: Adversary condition 24262
Win: Sacrifice victory 810
Lose: Scenario condition 1866
Win: Scenario condition 5011
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51522
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3273

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-04 02:47:44 (Pacific Time)