Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 90 21.11% 22.57 -0.395 68.89% 0.072 -0.054
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 97 25.77% 31.18 3.889 81.44% 0.586 0.0826
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 79 32.91% 33.76 4.821 74.68% 0.047 -0.1315
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 101 59.41% 39.61 7.266 82.18% 0.445 0.2613
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 130 50.77% 41.12 8.156 66.92% -0.38 0.1469
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 51 66.67% 36.84 5.667 50.98% -1.144 -0.2853
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 195 73.33% 35.91 5.676 40.51% -1.378 0.3937
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3592 36.88% 25.95 -1.113 73.52% -0.524 -0.1052
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2932 43.11% 28.98 -0.234 73.19% -0.401 0.0488
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3591 55.94% 32.83 3.803 63.6% -0.233 0.2731
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4106 64.04% 33.33 2.225 56.87% -0.795 0.0541
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2845 78.28% 35.37 1.493 46.99% -1.38 0.1817
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1150 83.83% 35.24 3.081 38.7% -1.384 0.2753
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4822 79.03% 34.49 -0.925 33.04% -2.402 -0.3886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 15607 32.24% 23.18 -1.877 79.89% -0.295 -0.1243
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12232 36.02% 27.89 1.567 81.81% 0.296 0.3289
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15588 42.15% 35.77 2.987 81.2% -0.112 0.0392
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15042 45.53% 42.01 5.492 80.15% -0.106 0.1659
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10897 46.39% 44.66 8.563 79.01% 0.21 0.5121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5856 55.14% 48.09 5.022 69.09% -0.92 -0.5422
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13067 63.13% 45.71 5.711 57.61% -0.969 0.2929
The Kingdom of England 0 1 12642 31.54% 22.74 -1.283 75.5% -0.163 0.2092
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7582 39.3% 29.48 0.012 71.78% -0.557 0.0117
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10337 52.39% 29.06 1.531 61.24% -0.511 0.1041
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10390 59.65% 31.92 0.709 49.87% -1.183 -0.0744
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10906 52.24% 39.37 5.286 57.45% -0.691 0.3138
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3339 68.58% 36.03 1.204 36.18% -1.794 -0.2644
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13250 64.12% 38.92 1.344 36.11% -1.897 -0.0633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7417 38.7% 27.08 -1.843 75.87% -0.719 -0.151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4901 54.56% 27.09 -2.923 63.88% -1.135 -0.2159
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8956 45.56% 32.94 1.857 53.14% -1.142 0.0641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7976 58.0% 36.85 4.468 47.76% -1.142 0.1293
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5676 55.77% 41.12 2.924 49.31% -1.432 -0.0284
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2799 60.61% 46.83 9.272 54.09% -0.686 0.3709
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13364 61.08% 47.9 3.226 48.79% -1.792 -0.3118
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1656 26.89% 20.12 -2.447 62.02% -0.378 -0.0189
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1465 33.54% 25.76 2.213 60.48% -0.078 0.252
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1881 40.11% 29.63 2.39 64.33% -0.256 0.0812
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2763 40.28% 37.16 5.894 67.39% -0.315 -0.0482
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2319 44.85% 38.7 5.051 64.77% -0.707 0.1224
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1928 49.38% 40.79 8.863 62.24% -0.239 0.302
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6099 58.46% 37.27 5.879 43.5% -1.19 -0.0835
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9093 33.93% 22.36 -1.668 77.86% -0.221 0.0493
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6052 36.06% 27.68 0.367 80.27% 0.095 0.3494
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8179 43.27% 29.95 1.515 77.56% 0.044 0.3156
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8671 52.07% 36.77 4.068 75.09% -0.174 0.2712
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5563 63.8% 36.73 4.773 67.18% -0.396 0.3639
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2862 65.93% 37.77 0.277 60.1% -1.163 -0.0104
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11804 64.61% 41.12 4.351 60.52% -0.835 0.2096
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3235 30.1% 23.96 -1.199 75.3% -0.12 0.1698
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2130 47.41% 25.77 -1.724 62.54% -0.732 -0.014
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2580 44.3% 33.89 4.029 75.31% 0.118 0.6015
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3057 62.57% 35.22 4.219 58.42% -0.762 0.0343
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2218 62.13% 40.28 6.366 60.64% -0.818 0.2486
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1282 79.49% 36.41 4.943 33.39% -1.392 0.5788
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4329 77.27% 38.51 0.137 30.35% -2.307 -0.5866

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 592 25.84% 23.94 69.43% 0.566 0.1552 -0.461
Blitz 0 4206 38.51% 26.53 64.29% -0.443 -0.1193 0.01
Dahan Insurrection 4 4529 24.95% 49.73 78.94% 0.586 0.0959 0.795
Despicable Theft 2 782 40.66% 25.78 53.07% -0.22 0.3172 -1.036
Elemental Invocation 1 1096 45.16% 23.15 51.46% -0.873 -0.122 -1.064
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10395 8.16% 40.25 78.41% 0.396 -0.243 0.616
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1813 49.47% 26.93 59.4% -0.786 -0.265 -0.885
Rituals of Terror 3 1703 43.45% 35.44 66.06% 0.406 0.3172 -0.138
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1008 62.81% 28.6 55.36% -0.81 0.0789 -0.897
Second Wave 0 12282 45.68% 29.8 73.57% 0.212 0.2996 0.098
Varied Terrains 2 588 44.05% 23.71 48.47% -0.475 0.4073 -0.586
Ward the Shores 2 1764 44.58% 29.82 56.35% -0.728 0.2009 -0.632

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13193 32.09 57.39% 0.369 0.4196 -0.055
Aid From Lesser Spirits 13815 33.5 59.96% 0.156 0.014 0.03
All Things Weaken 7695 30.9 52.96% -0.455 -0.2578 -0.198
Attenuated Essence 1425 29.77 54.11% 0.318 0.3449 -0.226
Back Against the Wall 13626 32.04 54.84% 0.186 0.1368 -0.183
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1453 29.82 51.41% 0.258 0.4134 -0.333
Burn Brightest Before the End 1466 29.88 48.36% -0.115 -0.0811 -0.562
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12731 28.98 52.88% -0.071 0.2339 -0.287
Downward Spiral 29283 25.09 58.03% 0.109 0.1731 -0.078
Erosion of Will 13025 30.48 53.74% 0.022 0.1815 -0.361
Intensifying Exploitation 1538 27.68 48.05% -0.001 0.1353 -0.424
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3409 35.18 75.71% 0.272 -0.1891 0.32
Memory Fades to Dust 29437 24.46 54.04% -0.13 0.0858 -0.19
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7539 30.66 54.08% 0.117 0.2112 -0.257
Promising Farmlands 13360 29.21 53.96% 0.024 0.3514 -0.414
Shattered Fragments of Power 1554 32.38 53.02% 0.316 0.3955 -0.109
Slow Dissolution of Will 1481 28.69 45.64% -0.308 0.1486 -0.452
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2218 35.85 81.42% 1.041 0.4008 0.837
The Border of Life and Death 417 30.15 64.03% 0.488 0.0509 0.189
Thriving Communities 7522 30.27 54.13% 0.229 0.4455 -0.126
Thriving Crops 713 30.0 55.82% 0.296 0.0985 -0.204
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.21 -0.098 -0.34
Unnatural Proliferation 8135 32.54 56.72% 0.068 0.1429 -0.164
Untended Land Crumbles 7789 29.52 51.38% -0.089 0.1265 -0.381

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 158389 44.17% 28.08 67.57% -0.118 0.8036 -0.03
B 160701 44.28% 28.29 67.78% -0.052 0.7883 0.0
C 161078 44.21% 28.43 67.85% -0.016 0.6694 0.025
D 154675 44.16% 27.85 67.61% -0.064 0.777 -0.055
E 66848 45.52% 30.66 67.11% 0.029 0.694 -0.079
F 86258 44.16% 30.58 69.52% 0.026 0.7973 0.064
G 81222 44.23% 30.48 69.42% 0.12 0.8698 0.081
H 81909 43.86% 30.41 69.24% 0.055 0.7662 -0.021

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 31318 0.0% 12.77 49.61% -1.064 -0.3603 -0.444
Not Using Events or Tokens 94414 40.56% 19.0 61.79% -0.327 0.1629 -0.855
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10640 17.52% 30.21 83.7% 0.453 -0.2819 1.226
Start of Game Growth 15766 20.43% 29.33 82.04% 0.238 -0.2097 0.277
Unlimited Undo 45022 36.99% 30.03 74.82% 0.314 0.2745 0.325
Using Tokens but Not Events 39814 31.58% 27.35 77.53% 0.089 -0.0616 -0.462

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 89273 14.18 10.26%
II 156833 30.28 66.58%
III 158492 34.84 88.13%
IV 70933 38.62 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9161
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 137328
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 100295
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 70289
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 46911
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3973
Lose: Adversary condition 30629
Win: Sacrifice victory 1005
Lose: Scenario condition 2200
Win: Scenario condition 5841
Lose: Blight pool ran out 63823
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4076

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-26 04:41:02 (Pacific Time)