Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 249 21.69% 20.6 -1.666 58.23% -0.454 -0.0721
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 193 26.42% 29.27 2.144 74.09% -0.051 -0.0953
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 210 30.95% 33.64 5.428 72.38% 0.357 0.5138
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 277 45.13% 37.06 5.731 76.53% 0.119 0.1677
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 330 53.94% 39.48 6.379 63.33% -0.495 -0.0885
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 125 72.0% 37.14 7.32 47.2% -1.11 -0.2539
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 499 74.75% 30.6 2.096 30.86% -2.024 -0.2676
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3807 36.91% 25.66 -0.401 72.26% -0.48 -0.02
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3064 42.89% 28.76 -0.339 72.45% -0.605 -0.2826
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3777 55.65% 32.68 2.641 62.93% -0.679 -0.1682
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4345 63.55% 32.98 1.76 55.97% -1.047 -0.0403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2976 77.82% 35.13 3.705 46.71% -1.133 0.1833
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1178 83.45% 35.04 0.762 38.54% -1.501 0.042
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5055 78.48% 34.12 1.164 32.78% -1.93 -0.1165
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16280 32.13% 22.89 -1.624 78.76% -0.211 -0.0277
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12809 35.92% 27.57 0.598 80.9% 0.012 0.0128
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16260 41.91% 35.56 4.743 80.73% 0.236 0.2442
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15720 45.66% 41.71 7.002 79.51% 0.084 0.2803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11362 46.4% 44.28 6.374 78.32% -0.357 -0.1297
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6108 55.36% 47.33 4.335 67.78% -1.073 -0.6669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13660 63.06% 45.09 4.62 56.81% -1.257 -0.0084
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13175 31.59% 22.46 -2.354 74.39% -0.446 -0.1313
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8064 39.89% 29.01 1.234 70.7% -0.246 0.0142
The Kingdom of England 2 4 11031 52.69% 28.61 1.1 60.31% -0.599 -0.1122
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10888 59.07% 31.63 2.157 49.41% -1.108 -0.0539
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11397 51.6% 39.2 5.329 57.23% -0.992 -0.033
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3505 67.95% 35.47 0.077 35.63% -2.06 -0.4786
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13912 63.59% 38.3 0.913 35.51% -2.194 -0.3481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7677 38.67% 26.86 -0.566 75.22% -0.374 -0.0557
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5139 54.45% 26.99 1.054 63.44% -0.455 0.3461
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9298 45.51% 32.7 1.486 52.75% -1.116 0.0165
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8363 57.55% 36.6 5.017 47.47% -1.034 0.1487
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5860 55.55% 40.97 6.526 49.2% -1.05 0.2651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2895 59.99% 46.43 5.617 53.68% -1.204 0.0235
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13961 60.98% 47.39 5.437 48.11% -1.536 -0.1531
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1892 27.54% 19.73 -2.345 60.78% -0.307 -0.0435
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1590 33.06% 25.83 2.395 60.63% -0.201 0.2923
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2069 39.75% 29.44 2.86 63.8% -0.262 0.0731
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3074 40.7% 37.27 7.494 67.4% 0.019 -0.0207
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2522 45.16% 38.47 6.214 64.43% -0.469 0.056
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2148 49.26% 40.6 7.775 61.87% -0.511 -0.0137
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6805 58.2% 37.29 6.547 43.59% -1.105 -0.0595
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9440 33.62% 22.13 -1.673 76.97% -0.074 0.1742
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6367 36.16% 27.45 0.928 79.43% 0.044 0.0948
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8551 43.16% 29.65 1.011 76.73% -0.188 0.0041
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9089 51.92% 36.36 3.303 74.29% -0.285 -0.0491
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5776 63.54% 36.36 1.767 66.5% -0.874 -0.1105
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2968 65.29% 37.38 1.866 59.54% -0.97 0.1166
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 12251 64.55% 40.75 3.721 59.95% -1.013 -0.1002
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3442 30.06% 23.62 -1.772 74.11% -0.301 -0.0869
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2264 47.19% 25.45 -0.861 61.7% -0.63 0.1995
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2726 43.76% 33.82 4.427 74.94% 0.037 0.3228
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3231 61.98% 34.79 1.906 57.69% -1.009 0.041
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2358 61.75% 39.74 3.728 59.84% -0.996 -0.0257
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1329 79.16% 36.02 2.526 33.03% -1.684 -0.1907
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4568 76.97% 38.03 2.773 29.93% -2.226 -0.6529

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 669 26.91% 23.24 67.26% -0.399 -0.2059 -0.309
Blitz 0 4438 37.87% 26.26 63.61% -0.262 -0.0356 -0.021
Dahan Insurrection 4 4689 24.78% 49.2 78.31% 0.363 0.0986 0.756
Despicable Theft 2 832 39.66% 25.22 51.92% -0.724 -0.0913 -1.06
Elemental Invocation 1 1169 44.65% 22.58 50.13% -1.127 -0.3846 -1.098
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10744 8.21% 40.07 77.87% 0.402 -0.1626 0.601
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1895 48.96% 26.38 57.99% -0.953 -0.1345 -0.967
Rituals of Terror 3 1776 43.01% 35.07 65.2% -0.177 -0.1495 -0.143
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1051 62.33% 28.23 54.9% -0.34 0.5256 -0.942
Second Wave 0 12701 45.71% 29.69 73.11% -0.041 0.1087 0.081
Varied Terrains 2 657 43.07% 23.39 47.95% -0.891 -0.1267 -0.59
Ward the Shores 2 1859 44.13% 29.23 55.24% -0.877 0.1939 -0.652

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13608 31.97 57.25% -0.013 0.211 -0.034
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14277 33.45 59.78% 0.158 0.1005 0.077
All Things Weaken 8096 30.74 52.74% -0.186 0.1735 -0.177
Attenuated Essence 1731 30.09 53.96% 0.165 0.1857 -0.151
Back Against the Wall 14064 31.97 54.76% 0.083 0.1289 -0.143
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1731 29.65 50.55% -0.088 0.0949 -0.241
Burn Brightest Before the End 1720 30.08 48.31% -0.053 -0.0489 -0.517
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13189 28.85 52.6% -0.245 0.0869 -0.258
Downward Spiral 30568 24.91 57.76% 0.209 0.3336 -0.043
Erosion of Will 13421 30.36 53.62% -0.011 0.2459 -0.327
Intensifying Exploitation 1792 27.36 47.27% -0.363 -0.1371 -0.41
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3619 35.07 75.55% 0.92 0.323 0.361
Memory Fades to Dust 30639 24.29 53.82% 0.069 0.3289 -0.15
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8035 30.34 53.78% -0.161 0.0464 -0.233
Promising Farmlands 13778 29.18 53.88% 0.09 0.3418 -0.371
Shattered Fragments of Power 1860 32.43 52.85% 0.02 0.119 -0.112
Slow Dissolution of Will 1782 28.93 45.85% -0.282 0.1111 -0.407
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2332 35.68 81.22% 0.894 0.1723 0.877
The Border of Life and Death 487 29.78 64.48% 0.65 0.049 0.087
Thriving Communities 7929 30.11 54.0% 0.008 0.2633 -0.083
Thriving Crops 841 30.33 57.67% 0.516 0.344 -0.145
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.294
Unnatural Proliferation 8588 32.37 56.38% -0.054 0.1677 -0.137
Untended Land Crumbles 8215 29.4 51.33% -0.032 0.16 -0.346

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 166251 43.95% 27.73 66.76% -0.039 0.9271 -0.023
B 168649 44.12% 27.92 66.92% -0.022 0.8651 0.0
C 169112 44.06% 28.09 67.02% -0.018 0.6852 0.028
D 162065 44.02% 27.48 66.74% -0.113 0.8155 -0.067
E 71744 45.3% 30.34 66.38% 0.089 0.8734 -0.069
F 91567 44.07% 30.25 68.77% 0.06 0.9054 0.063
G 85752 44.14% 30.16 68.69% 0.031 0.8403 0.069
H 86545 43.75% 30.1 68.54% -0.008 0.8088 -0.014

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 33589 0.0% 12.38 48.19% -1.056 -0.3087 -0.402
Not Using Events or Tokens 99973 40.56% 18.58 60.53% -0.363 -0.0234 -0.869
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11071 17.34% 30.03 82.95% 0.573 -0.0283 1.266
Start of Game Growth 16396 20.43% 29.14 81.24% 0.137 -0.3961 0.28
Unlimited Undo 47189 36.75% 29.67 74.01% 0.2 0.1151 0.32
Using Tokens but Not Events 42059 31.52% 27.02 76.66% 0.05 0.0223 -0.481

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 97881 13.46 9.61%
II 163621 30.14 66.23%
III 165385 34.84 88.1%
IV 73927 38.67 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9408
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 143278
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 104146
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 73266
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 54722
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4144
Lose: Adversary condition 31853
Win: Sacrifice victory 1060
Lose: Scenario condition 2258
Win: Scenario condition 5971
Lose: Blight pool ran out 66457
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4251

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-31 04:00:51 (Pacific Time)