Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 253 31.62% 27.5 78.66% 0.27 0.0829 -0.296
Blitz 0 2962 43.08% 29.42 71.13% -0.105 0.0453 -0.117
Dahan Insurrection 4 3537 27.05% 52.55 81.71% 1.288 1.0587 0.691
Despicable Theft 2 415 45.78% 32.16 66.27% -0.774 -0.0329 -1.08
Elemental Invocation 1 610 53.28% 30.13 65.74% -0.5 0.2751 -0.763
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8417 7.99% 42.25 82.75% 0.927 0.3061 0.435
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1305 56.98% 31.28 68.51% -0.499 0.003 -0.812
Rituals of Terror 3 1288 48.63% 39.39 71.89% 0.107 0.1698 -0.26
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 732 71.57% 33.3 64.62% -1.441 -0.4003 -0.87
Second Wave 0 9643 45.97% 30.41 75.64% 0.09 0.1474 -0.199
Varied Terrains 2 210 51.9% 29.84 63.81% -0.663 -0.158 -1.191
Ward the Shores 2 1343 48.35% 33.57 62.7% -0.854 0.3206 -0.585

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10962 32.47 58.12% -0.056 0.1915 -0.511
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11512 33.8 60.43% 0.263 0.2485 -0.481
All Things Weaken 5639 32.15 55.7% -0.389 0.0366 -0.61
Attenuated Essence 188 29.44 52.66% 0.046 0.2085 -1.072
Back Against the Wall 11407 32.29 54.98% -0.011 0.0977 -0.676
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 203 27.85 44.83% -0.389 -0.0259 -0.998
Burn Brightest Before the End 162 30.35 50.0% -0.154 0.1132 -1.305
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10462 29.58 53.61% -0.24 0.2367 -0.776
Downward Spiral 23507 26.11 60.22% -0.065 0.2395 -0.576
Erosion of Will 10750 31.0 54.48% -0.298 0.0682 -0.822
Intensifying Exploitation 211 27.51 44.55% -0.323 0.0295 -1.332
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2489 37.35 79.79% 0.48 -0.0317 0.019
Memory Fades to Dust 23678 25.56 56.4% -0.171 0.2641 -0.644
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5556 31.28 54.97% -0.09 0.1719 -0.748
Promising Farmlands 11105 29.68 54.71% -0.179 0.344 -0.869
Shattered Fragments of Power 211 31.39 53.08% -0.159 -0.0428 -0.51
Slow Dissolution of Will 165 28.58 46.06% -0.292 0.1915 -1.342
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1604 37.36 85.54% 0.807 0.1814 0.512
The Border of Life and Death 54 30.59 68.52% 0.505 0.2544 -0.229
Thriving Communities 5446 31.28 55.33% -0.181 0.2512 -0.621
Thriving Crops 108 33.81 64.81% 0.477 0.4666 -0.472
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.808
Unnatural Proliferation 6109 33.26 57.69% 0.046 0.3071 -0.703
Untended Land Crumbles 5729 30.52 52.85% -0.338 -0.0218 -0.841

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 117441 46.42% 30.66 73.84% -0.014 0.8456 -0.033
B 119926 46.45% 30.77 73.82% -0.04 0.7739 -0.012
C 120083 46.25% 30.93 73.95% -0.054 0.6333 0.006
D 115342 46.23% 30.38 73.99% -0.054 0.7819 -0.037
E 43052 48.65% 33.5 73.0% 0.147 0.8002 -0.065
F 60512 46.26% 33.07 75.31% -0.006 0.7455 0.048
G 57388 46.28% 32.97 75.04% -0.031 0.7405 0.077
H 57795 45.92% 32.86 75.0% 0.03 0.7138 0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20498 0.0% 16.06 62.67% -1.087 -0.2432 -0.821
Not Using Events or Tokens 65125 44.04% 22.26 72.57% -0.495 -0.1683 -0.701
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8161 17.33% 31.46 89.01% 0.159 -0.4336 0.714
Start of Game Growth 11640 21.18% 30.95 87.29% 0.241 -0.0276 0.165
Unlimited Undo 32791 38.69% 32.38 80.42% -0.164 -0.1679 0.373
Using Tokens but Not Events 29805 32.28% 29.28 82.62% 0.208 0.148 -0.348

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43588 20.88 17.82%
II 122175 31.03 68.31%
III 124134 34.74 88.25%
IV 55879 38.02 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7766
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107523
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 79981
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55350
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5477
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3121
Lose: Adversary condition 24197
Win: Sacrifice victory 808
Lose: Scenario condition 1864
Win: Scenario condition 5004
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51420
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3265

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-02 03:54:23 (Pacific Time)