Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 243 32.51% 27.73 79.01% 0.321 0.2592 -0.308
Blitz 0 2928 43.31% 29.37 71.17% -0.29 -0.1509 -0.13
Dahan Insurrection 4 3523 27.13% 52.49 81.66% 1.205 1.032 0.673
Despicable Theft 2 411 46.23% 32.22 66.18% -0.687 -0.0202 -1.089
Elemental Invocation 1 599 53.92% 30.06 65.61% -0.608 0.1229 -0.776
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8366 7.97% 42.27 82.79% 0.945 0.3119 0.411
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1292 57.32% 31.48 68.89% -0.436 0.0345 -0.809
Rituals of Terror 3 1283 48.5% 39.49 72.1% 0.152 0.1641 -0.268
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 725 71.98% 33.44 64.83% -1.479 -0.5309 -0.846
Second Wave 0 9567 45.98% 30.42 75.68% 0.04 0.117 -0.204
Varied Terrains 2 204 52.45% 29.96 64.22% -0.739 -0.1697 -1.289
Ward the Shores 2 1333 48.41% 33.7 62.94% -0.778 0.457 -0.591

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10904 32.51 58.23% -0.03 0.243 -0.532
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11459 33.82 60.46% 0.231 0.2948 -0.505
All Things Weaken 5597 32.18 55.73% -0.459 0.0099 -0.637
Attenuated Essence 162 29.41 51.85% -0.082 0.1773 -1.11
Back Against the Wall 11359 32.31 55.01% -0.075 0.1075 -0.699
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 158 26.65 42.41% -0.53 -0.0665 -1.217
Burn Brightest Before the End 139 30.32 51.08% -0.222 0.1016 -1.338
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10407 29.63 53.68% -0.303 0.2416 -0.797
Downward Spiral 23384 26.15 60.34% -0.043 0.3144 -0.595
Erosion of Will 10694 31.01 54.5% -0.386 0.0681 -0.846
Intensifying Exploitation 184 28.45 45.65% -0.366 0.0422 -1.302
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2467 37.47 79.98% 0.497 -0.0147 0.008
Memory Fades to Dust 23534 25.58 56.45% -0.284 0.2154 -0.673
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5513 31.33 55.07% -0.133 0.1769 -0.767
Promising Farmlands 11047 29.72 54.78% -0.153 0.4327 -0.889
Shattered Fragments of Power 183 31.69 52.46% -0.258 -0.0556 -0.665
Slow Dissolution of Will 137 28.58 44.53% -0.453 0.1077 -1.39
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1593 37.44 85.69% 0.921 0.1993 0.493
The Border of Life and Death 44 30.84 68.18% 0.346 0.238 -0.289
Thriving Communities 5398 31.32 55.41% -0.246 0.2609 -0.647
Thriving Crops 95 33.26 63.16% 0.245 0.362 -0.495
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.831
Unnatural Proliferation 6056 33.34 57.73% -0.027 0.2914 -0.722
Untended Land Crumbles 5666 30.56 53.05% -0.417 -0.0376 -0.854

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 116675 46.47% 30.71 73.98% -0.026 0.8439 -0.039
B 119119 46.5% 30.83 73.97% -0.052 0.7515 -0.014
C 119222 46.28% 30.99 74.12% -0.05 0.6308 0.008
D 114600 46.26% 30.45 74.14% -0.073 0.7568 -0.036
E 42518 48.68% 33.61 73.23% 0.151 0.8064 -0.061
F 59908 46.25% 33.16 75.54% 0.02 0.7644 0.051
G 56856 46.28% 33.04 75.21% -0.019 0.7612 0.077
H 57256 45.96% 32.95 75.18% 0.028 0.7148 0.003

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20346 0.0% 16.14 62.97% -1.076 -0.1696 -0.848
Not Using Events or Tokens 64699 44.06% 22.33 72.81% -0.487 -0.1707 -0.699
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8073 16.98% 31.54 89.36% 0.155 -0.406 0.656
Start of Game Growth 11525 20.99% 31.02 87.56% 0.26 -0.0522 0.175
Unlimited Undo 32424 38.72% 32.5 80.72% -0.144 -0.1704 0.39
Using Tokens but Not Events 29552 32.27% 29.34 82.79% 0.225 0.1594 -0.319

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 42707 21.09 18.12%
II 121391 31.04 68.37%
III 123427 34.73 88.26%
IV 55558 38.01 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7738
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 106920
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 79535
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55031
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4681
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3102
Lose: Adversary condition 24050
Win: Sacrifice victory 804
Lose: Scenario condition 1862
Win: Scenario condition 4988
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51115
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3257

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-28 03:51:06 (Pacific Time)