Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 624 26.44% 23.4 68.11% -0.075 -0.1214 -0.527
Blitz 0 4301 38.27% 26.39 64.01% -0.083 0.1456 0.018
Dahan Insurrection 4 4584 24.85% 49.54 78.77% 0.471 0.153 0.791
Despicable Theft 2 800 40.25% 25.59 52.75% -0.779 0.007 -1.036
Elemental Invocation 1 1129 44.82% 22.79 50.66% -1.029 -0.3388 -1.068
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10553 8.16% 40.12 78.05% 0.238 -0.3628 0.612
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1841 49.15% 26.72 58.77% -1.245 -0.4239 -0.91
Rituals of Terror 3 1729 43.2% 35.37 65.88% 0.113 0.1124 -0.124
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1026 62.49% 28.44 55.17% -0.418 0.5527 -0.91
Second Wave 0 12458 45.74% 29.75 73.38% 0.088 0.312 0.104
Varied Terrains 2 610 43.28% 23.37 47.87% -0.709 0.1397 -0.577
Ward the Shores 2 1790 44.49% 29.66 55.98% -1.001 0.1082 -0.642

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13367 32.01 57.31% 0.183 0.2242 -0.043
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14012 33.47 59.85% 0.239 0.1531 0.057
All Things Weaken 7875 30.8 52.83% -0.233 -0.0228 -0.184
Attenuated Essence 1553 29.86 54.02% 0.314 0.2851 -0.197
Back Against the Wall 13823 31.96 54.7% -0.042 -0.0071 -0.159
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1579 29.66 50.54% 0.143 0.2932 -0.316
Burn Brightest Before the End 1569 29.88 47.99% -0.176 -0.1691 -0.553
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12936 28.9 52.74% -0.17 0.0078 -0.274
Downward Spiral 29819 24.98 57.86% 0.166 0.2304 -0.052
Erosion of Will 13195 30.44 53.67% -0.004 0.1219 -0.348
Intensifying Exploitation 1647 27.59 48.09% 0.087 0.2059 -0.403
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3504 35.08 75.54% 0.652 0.0447 0.323
Memory Fades to Dust 29946 24.37 53.94% 0.094 0.3032 -0.169
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7774 30.5 53.96% 0.046 0.1691 -0.242
Promising Farmlands 13540 29.16 53.88% 0.046 0.2424 -0.393
Shattered Fragments of Power 1687 32.33 52.76% 0.28 0.2758 -0.128
Slow Dissolution of Will 1607 28.77 45.55% -0.078 0.2405 -0.495
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2267 35.73 81.39% 1.008 0.3021 0.877
The Border of Life and Death 445 29.93 64.27% 0.604 0.1397 0.108
Thriving Communities 7694 30.22 54.08% 0.284 0.4226 -0.092
Thriving Crops 761 30.28 57.03% 0.628 0.3522 -0.183
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.17 0.3438 -0.318
Unnatural Proliferation 8340 32.44 56.56% 0.105 0.1798 -0.153
Untended Land Crumbles 7963 29.5 51.53% 0.236 0.3964 -0.358

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 161752 44.09% 27.9 67.18% -0.064 0.9095 -0.035
B 164157 44.23% 28.11 67.36% -0.077 0.8144 0.003
C 164495 44.17% 28.26 67.45% -0.04 0.6524 0.028
D 157858 44.1% 27.67 67.19% -0.071 0.8207 -0.06
E 68905 45.47% 30.49 66.75% 0.08 0.8059 -0.077
F 88455 44.14% 30.41 69.17% 0.09 0.9143 0.066
G 83161 44.2% 30.33 69.09% 0.056 0.822 0.081
H 83842 43.79% 30.26 68.9% 0.005 0.7809 -0.019

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 32347 0.0% 12.58 48.92% -1.085 -0.4379 -0.427
Not Using Events or Tokens 96807 40.57% 18.79 61.18% -0.399 0.0319 -0.848
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10826 17.43% 30.09 83.28% 0.454 -0.3436 1.22
Start of Game Growth 16035 20.5% 29.22 81.62% 0.186 -0.2276 0.266
Unlimited Undo 45872 36.88% 29.87 74.46% 0.143 0.0966 0.31
Using Tokens but Not Events 40613 31.56% 27.26 77.26% 0.17 0.0971 -0.462

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 93005 13.84 9.95%
II 159775 30.21 66.38%
III 161368 34.83 88.11%
IV 72149 38.63 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9250
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 139806
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 101910
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 71497
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 50296
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4036
Lose: Adversary condition 31168
Win: Sacrifice victory 1031
Lose: Scenario condition 2229
Win: Scenario condition 5885
Lose: Blight pool ran out 65033
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4156

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-09 16:35:15 (Pacific Time)