Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1267 39.0% 28.45 -0.829 87.53% 0.003 0.2836
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 970 47.42% 32.4 1.236 85.67% -0.006 0.3835
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1311 60.69% 35.33 2.671 68.42% -0.988 -0.118
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1555 66.07% 36.29 3.278 62.89% -1.195 0.0619
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1134 82.54% 37.67 4.299 49.12% -1.51 0.0183
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 468 86.75% 34.83 2.935 33.97% -2.131 -0.1052
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1771 85.09% 39.37 5.202 38.0% -1.984 0.0863
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8727 31.59% 25.25 -2.094 88.67% 0.146 0.1836
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5787 37.14% 30.06 0.471 89.48% 0.401 0.3702
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 7528 44.19% 38.04 4.5 87.29% 0.213 0.2181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7604 47.25% 44.5 7.648 84.8% -0.009 0.2819
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5539 48.8% 46.88 8.832 82.4% -0.2 0.1613
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3583 54.18% 51.86 11.34 74.55% -0.664 0.1645
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6612 62.26% 51.28 10.959 65.44% -1.103 0.142
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7005 32.29% 24.5 -2.461 83.84% -0.303 0.0284
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3604 41.32% 31.74 1.327 78.39% -0.539 -0.0385
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4883 54.95% 31.67 1.369 67.25% -1.013 -0.0437
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5344 63.35% 34.33 2.708 53.13% -1.624 -0.0451
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5219 58.01% 40.9 5.678 58.67% -1.502 -0.0005
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1723 71.47% 39.71 5.164 39.52% -2.255 -0.1855
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6482 67.55% 43.21 6.92 40.19% -2.306 -0.0544
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4407 38.73% 29.32 -0.608 83.55% -0.267 0.2578
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2349 60.47% 29.32 -0.138 70.75% -0.71 0.1831
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4816 47.63% 33.95 2.003 54.26% -1.916 0.2135
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4495 60.4% 38.48 4.461 49.81% -1.893 0.2933
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3164 58.39% 42.97 6.659 52.15% -1.855 0.2875
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1367 67.79% 47.6 8.939 53.47% -1.599 0.2245
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 6803 63.18% 52.62 11.371 55.42% -1.631 0.4846
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5232 33.53% 24.21 -2.7 86.64% 0.005 0.0933
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2991 37.19% 29.53 0.104 87.7% 0.23 0.25
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 3943 43.8% 32.24 1.474 85.44% 0.062 0.285
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4416 53.96% 40.06 5.399 81.75% -0.105 0.1805
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2966 67.02% 39.59 5.277 72.83% -0.497 0.2705
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1445 73.5% 39.33 5.225 61.31% -0.984 0.1767
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 5724 66.75% 45.03 7.689 67.3% -0.873 0.26
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 831 30.83% 25.63 -2.558 92.3% 0.34 0.2199
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 564 48.93% 30.87 0.122 78.55% -0.619 0.0991
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 741 46.02% 37.99 3.669 87.18% -0.03 0.4125
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 984 66.46% 39.89 4.81 66.97% -1.055 0.1953
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 778 67.22% 42.98 6.409 64.65% -1.132 -0.0083
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 549 84.88% 37.89 4.013 32.24% -2.353 -0.3068
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1274 83.91% 47.05 8.301 37.6% -2.131 -0.1966

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2581 45.44% 30.01 -1.049 72.26% -0.466 0.1147
Dahan Insurrection 4 3582 28.17% 52.06 10.049 81.21% -0.131 0.2725
Despicable Theft 2 80 46.25% 34.71 1.64 76.25% -0.467 -0.1167
Elemental Invocation 1 181 54.14% 30.7 -0.526 73.48% -0.34 0.0322
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8126 8.57% 40.78 3.879 82.61% -0.598 -0.2333
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1264 59.47% 31.76 0.444 70.33% -0.329 0.1121
Rituals of Terror 3 1205 48.66% 39.24 4.699 72.7% -0.326 0.308
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 694 75.33% 34.66 2.435 66.28% -0.412 0.2282
Second Wave 0 8372 48.38% 30.79 -0.168 74.87% -0.521 -0.097
Ward the Shores 2 1261 49.96% 33.46 0.976 62.89% -1.043 -0.0017

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 7426 32.1 -1.48 57.27% -1.882 0.1884
Aid From Lesser Spirits 7757 33.47 -0.797 59.57% -1.792 0.1303
All Things Weaken 2667 31.99 -1.585 55.64% -1.942 0.2117
Back Against the Wall 7751 32.05 -1.52 54.5% -2.005 0.0918
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7026 29.19 -2.995 52.52% -2.081 0.1452
Downward Spiral 16669 26.15 -2.895 61.4% -1.887 0.1314
Erosion of Will 7293 30.86 -2.158 53.89% -2.05 0.1602
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1186 37.25 1.077 81.11% -0.68 0.0137
Memory Fades to Dust 16630 25.51 -3.221 57.16% -2.094 0.1213
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2606 31.28 -1.967 55.26% -1.941 0.0763
Promising Farmlands 7584 29.26 -2.819 54.58% -2.026 0.1875
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 736 37.31 1.329 86.41% -0.282 0.148
Thriving Communities 2505 31.09 -2.089 54.85% -1.951 0.1445
Tipping Point 3798 29.23 -2.861 51.79% -2.15 0.0714
Unnatural Proliferation 2864 33.06 -0.999 58.21% -1.815 0.2711
Untended Land Crumbles 2644 30.96 -2.162 53.63% -1.989 0.1074

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 80898 46.54% 30.77 -0.268 74.77% -0.036 -1.1371
B 82978 46.38% 30.89 -0.194 74.81% -0.029 -1.2252
C 82298 46.32% 31.09 -0.047 74.98% 0.011 -1.418
D 80247 46.22% 30.67 -0.244 75.14% -0.005 -1.1962
E 19358 49.87% 33.79 0.259 73.58% -0.035 -1.334
F 34622 45.65% 33.69 0.468 76.74% 0.078 -1.1767
G 33199 46.19% 33.54 0.408 76.18% 0.03 -1.2119
H 33470 45.39% 33.41 0.319 76.25% 0.007 -1.2499

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 14084 0.0% 16.73 -5.471 65.0% -2.254 -0.2058
Not Using Events or Tokens 45168 44.89% 22.68 -3.276 74.43% -0.202 0.0184
Skip Initial Invader Actions 5470 16.0% 30.6 1.136 90.35% 0.704 -0.0009
Start of Game Growth 7593 20.24% 30.44 0.555 88.21% 0.352 -0.0992
Unlimited Undo 21402 38.8% 32.98 0.848 81.67% 0.349 -0.0677
Using Tokens but Not Events 19929 32.46% 29.83 -1.049 83.67% 0.099 0.0475

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25982 22.33 21.06%
II 81300 30.75 69.15%
III 80310 34.25 87.96%
IV 35943 37.47 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3823
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 53137
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 38710
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 27318
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2102
Lose: Adversary condition 15540
Win: Sacrifice victory 458
Lose: Scenario condition 1415
Win: Scenario condition 3701
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34159
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2229

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)