Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 220 22.73% 20.68 -1.128 58.64% -0.419 -0.1813
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 174 24.71% 29.95 2.663 75.86% 0.064 -0.059
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 197 30.96% 34.64 6.87 74.62% 0.592 0.6645
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 255 47.45% 36.75 5.957 76.08% 0.17 0.1874
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 297 54.55% 39.91 7.646 63.97% -0.364 -0.0082
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 114 70.18% 36.83 6.666 46.49% -1.265 -0.4744
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 439 73.35% 31.01 1.562 32.8% -2.048 -0.3636
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3782 36.86% 25.64 -0.726 72.21% -0.532 -0.1396
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3037 42.94% 28.8 0.172 72.64% -0.466 -0.1623
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3752 55.78% 32.66 3.17 62.95% -0.573 -0.0569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4299 63.7% 33.04 2.07 56.15% -1.056 -0.0478
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2954 77.89% 35.11 2.353 46.61% -1.39 0.017
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1172 83.53% 35.01 0.077 38.4% -1.839 -0.0116
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5011 78.49% 34.11 0.287 32.75% -2.096 -0.2999
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16168 32.17% 22.92 -1.73 78.87% -0.358 -0.177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12721 35.94% 27.58 -0.158 80.91% -0.235 -0.1912
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16114 41.99% 35.6 4.722 80.82% 0.216 0.2421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 15581 45.63% 41.76 6.735 79.64% -0.011 0.1937
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11255 46.39% 44.33 5.992 78.4% -0.443 -0.1544
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6070 55.42% 47.43 3.911 67.91% -1.275 -0.8704
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13538 63.1% 45.19 4.228 56.94% -1.366 -0.106
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13085 31.6% 22.5 -2.057 74.54% -0.432 -0.1174
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8014 39.81% 29.06 1.426 70.81% -0.184 0.0706
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10891 52.56% 28.68 1.084 60.41% -0.606 -0.0842
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10804 59.18% 31.69 1.937 49.52% -1.132 -0.0726
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11304 51.71% 39.19 5.389 57.22% -0.964 0.0127
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3468 67.93% 35.57 0.556 35.73% -2.086 -0.4824
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13753 63.71% 38.5 1.694 35.72% -2.179 -0.2621
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7647 38.65% 26.87 -0.51 75.23% -0.366 -0.002
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 5112 54.5% 27.06 2.039 63.62% -0.273 0.3837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9246 45.46% 32.75 2.082 52.81% -1.118 0.0461
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8301 57.61% 36.65 4.763 47.51% -1.147 0.1504
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5828 55.58% 41.05 7.344 49.33% -0.968 0.312
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2876 60.14% 46.52 6.354 53.79% -1.13 0.1292
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13842 61.04% 47.47 5.307 48.23% -1.64 -0.268
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1852 27.54% 19.77 -2.321 60.96% -0.428 -0.1762
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1569 33.06% 25.82 2.563 60.68% -0.143 0.303
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2043 39.57% 29.45 2.71 63.78% -0.36 0.0048
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3014 40.74% 37.21 7.566 67.19% -0.082 -0.1161
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2474 45.11% 38.51 6.362 64.43% -0.485 0.0484
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2112 49.05% 40.57 7.243 61.93% -0.571 -0.0413
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6625 58.36% 37.24 5.888 43.52% -1.245 -0.2063
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9389 33.65% 22.13 -1.972 77.02% -0.195 0.1082
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6308 36.2% 27.46 1.018 79.53% 0.07 0.1501
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8496 43.07% 29.69 0.972 76.86% -0.214 0.0208
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9014 51.97% 36.4 3.136 74.34% -0.328 -0.0477
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5746 63.54% 36.4 2.351 66.57% -0.807 -0.0009
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2946 65.37% 37.46 2.187 59.64% -0.947 0.136
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 12171 64.57% 40.83 4.01 60.05% -1.013 -0.0512
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3403 30.11% 23.68 -1.966 74.38% -0.327 -0.1203
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2235 47.26% 25.5 -0.75 61.79% -0.646 0.1483
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2706 43.87% 33.84 5.584 75.02% 0.282 0.5092
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3198 61.84% 34.82 2.012 57.75% -0.992 0.0706
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2332 61.84% 39.79 3.657 59.86% -1.082 -0.0377
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1319 79.3% 36.05 1.118 33.06% -1.781 -0.2838
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4518 77.03% 38.05 1.865 29.95% -2.285 -0.6718

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 656 26.98% 23.2 67.23% -0.587 -0.4206 -0.596
Blitz 0 4409 38.01% 26.28 63.6% -0.201 0.0769 -0.022
Dahan Insurrection 4 4660 24.85% 49.23 78.28% 0.218 -0.0076 0.748
Despicable Theft 2 824 39.93% 25.38 52.18% -0.734 0.0092 -1.057
Elemental Invocation 1 1157 44.51% 22.58 50.04% -1.014 -0.2979 -1.082
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10672 8.19% 40.08 77.9% 0.285 -0.3151 0.613
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1876 48.87% 26.47 58.16% -1.233 -0.284 -0.974
Rituals of Terror 3 1761 43.1% 35.12 65.42% -0.235 -0.1096 -0.145
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 1039 62.38% 28.33 54.96% -0.508 0.4065 -0.939
Second Wave 0 12626 45.74% 29.71 73.17% -0.038 0.1305 0.095
Varied Terrains 2 638 43.26% 23.58 48.12% -0.859 -0.1435 -0.589
Ward the Shores 2 1834 44.35% 29.39 55.51% -0.992 0.1882 -0.648

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13527 31.97 57.25% 0.082 0.2584 -0.04
Aid From Lesser Spirits 14195 33.46 59.83% 0.271 0.1921 0.072
All Things Weaken 8026 30.79 52.85% 0.014 0.2928 -0.179
Attenuated Essence 1678 30.09 54.17% 0.3 0.3097 -0.157
Back Against the Wall 13989 31.97 54.75% 0.041 0.0822 -0.144
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1686 29.58 50.42% -0.167 0.0304 -0.264
Burn Brightest Before the End 1661 29.99 48.16% -0.023 0.024 -0.519
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13126 28.86 52.64% -0.154 0.1189 -0.264
Downward Spiral 30331 24.92 57.78% 0.242 0.3395 -0.044
Erosion of Will 13339 30.39 53.68% -0.015 0.2422 -0.326
Intensifying Exploitation 1743 27.4 47.39% -0.301 -0.0652 -0.392
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3577 35.07 75.57% 0.917 0.3012 0.363
Memory Fades to Dust 30397 24.31 53.85% 0.129 0.3625 -0.148
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7958 30.34 53.79% -0.166 0.0588 -0.246
Promising Farmlands 13700 29.17 53.91% 0.172 0.4042 -0.373
Shattered Fragments of Power 1806 32.46 52.88% 0.088 0.188 -0.114
Slow Dissolution of Will 1722 28.97 45.88% -0.031 0.3131 -0.419
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2308 35.76 81.33% 0.996 0.3058 0.898
The Border of Life and Death 472 30.11 64.83% 0.596 0.0478 0.123
Thriving Communities 7854 30.16 54.07% 0.116 0.3455 -0.077
Thriving Crops 818 30.38 57.58% 0.663 0.3832 -0.156
Tipping Point 3801 29.21 51.75% -0.301
Unnatural Proliferation 8502 32.38 56.45% 0.031 0.2158 -0.141
Untended Land Crumbles 8134 29.41 51.34% 0.043 0.2814 -0.349

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 164810 43.99% 27.78 66.88% -0.035 0.9528 -0.027
B 167229 44.15% 27.98 67.06% -0.047 0.8443 0.0
C 167638 44.09% 28.14 67.15% -0.034 0.671 0.026
D 160658 44.03% 27.54 66.89% -0.084 0.8422 -0.066
E 70865 45.32% 30.38 66.5% 0.106 0.8765 -0.068
F 90598 44.09% 30.29 68.89% 0.071 0.9279 0.062
G 84992 44.14% 30.2 68.8% 0.007 0.8229 0.075
H 85695 43.76% 30.14 68.65% -0.005 0.8149 -0.016

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 33206 0.0% 12.45 48.44% -0.97 -0.2682 -0.415
Not Using Events or Tokens 98952 40.55% 18.64 60.71% -0.482 -0.11 -0.857
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11006 17.35% 30.05 83.04% 0.57 -0.0761 1.271
Start of Game Growth 16295 20.48% 29.17 81.34% 0.134 -0.3851 0.28
Unlimited Undo 46744 36.83% 29.74 74.14% 0.166 0.0732 0.314
Using Tokens but Not Events 41639 31.57% 27.09 76.85% 0.034 0.0286 -0.472

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 96388 13.57 9.7%
II 162367 30.15 66.3%
III 164114 34.83 88.11%
IV 73348 38.65 99.62%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9350
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 142198
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 103456
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 72690
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 53370
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4115
Lose: Adversary condition 31640
Win: Sacrifice victory 1045
Lose: Scenario condition 2246
Win: Scenario condition 5938
Lose: Blight pool ran out 65949
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4220

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-24 03:18:25 (Pacific Time)