Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3199 37.88% 26.76 -0.838 76.68% -0.483 -0.1341
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2647 44.28% 29.61 2.339 75.03% -0.083 0.1755
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3270 56.79% 33.31 0.824 64.53% -0.995 -0.122
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3739 64.76% 34.01 2.794 58.01% -0.843 0.0858
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2575 79.77% 35.83 5.018 47.65% -1.002 0.3191
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1054 85.2% 35.27 3.479 37.95% -1.153 0.3635
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4283 80.64% 35.72 0.208 34.39% -2.216 -0.2012
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14408 32.43% 23.7 -1.755 82.0% -0.237 0.0205
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11295 36.25% 28.29 0.235 83.1% -0.02 0.0808
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14361 42.99% 36.35 3.567 82.63% -0.138 -0.0475
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13939 45.78% 42.77 6.808 81.62% 0.021 0.2207
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 9909 47.53% 45.56 8.211 80.61% -0.052 0.2832
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5389 55.35% 49.38 9.459 71.22% -0.261 0.1985
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12082 63.43% 46.69 4.849 58.83% -1.188 0.1289
The Kingdom of England 0 1 11622 31.78% 23.3 -2.052 77.66% -0.399 0.0484
The Kingdom of England 1 3 6933 39.69% 30.17 0.509 73.88% -0.553 -0.2512
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9356 53.33% 29.73 0.788 62.64% -0.737 -0.1201
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9559 60.2% 32.61 1.242 51.04% -1.247 -0.1335
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10059 53.11% 39.84 1.82 57.97% -1.386 -0.1846
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3032 70.33% 36.8 -0.094 36.77% -2.151 -0.6034
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11942 65.05% 40.25 0.907 37.36% -2.25 -0.2414
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6911 38.89% 27.63 -1.778 77.77% -0.729 -0.2592
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4452 55.54% 27.97 -0.697 66.22% -0.765 -0.0804
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8350 46.26% 33.47 3.869 54.0% -0.712 0.2389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7420 58.63% 37.41 5.563 48.54% -1.038 0.2385
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5275 56.27% 41.69 5.818 50.03% -1.301 -0.0259
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2579 61.02% 47.02 8.033 53.94% -0.953 -0.0601
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12373 61.76% 48.86 4.335 49.83% -1.756 -0.3195
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1275 27.16% 20.99 -1.759 64.63% -0.323 -0.1291
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1148 32.78% 26.13 1.885 62.28% -0.24 0.2257
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1500 40.49% 30.22 2.464 65.6% -0.367 0.1254
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2122 40.06% 37.63 7.547 68.57% -0.022 0.3499
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1750 45.14% 39.49 5.64 66.4% -0.696 -0.0879
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1209 55.09% 42.02 8.491 63.11% -0.409 0.1302
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4541 60.11% 37.75 1.89 43.34% -1.802 -0.7225
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8490 34.48% 22.86 -2.804 79.74% -0.512 -0.2302
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5568 36.37% 28.36 1.316 82.42% 0.208 0.2812
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7489 44.08% 30.58 1.1 79.33% -0.208 -0.0639
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 7926 52.77% 37.53 2.718 76.7% -0.484 -0.1132
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5196 64.6% 37.37 3.16 68.44% -0.554 0.0609
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2623 66.45% 38.4 4.639 60.92% -0.635 0.4848
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10947 65.39% 41.69 2.404 61.38% -1.185 -0.1952
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2828 30.58% 24.78 -0.578 78.54% -0.19 -0.0975
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1873 49.06% 26.93 -3.084 65.51% -1.264 -0.3456
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2308 45.02% 34.62 0.421 76.99% -0.676 -0.1316
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2686 62.68% 36.38 2.258 60.83% -1.078 -0.0973
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1946 62.9% 40.98 5.867 61.82% -0.638 0.2168
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1170 80.43% 37.15 0.62 34.27% -1.873 -0.464
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3776 78.15% 40.33 1.962 32.02% -2.175 -0.4192

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 477 26.0% 24.8 71.49% 0.18 0.1108 -0.221
Blitz 0 3834 39.51% 27.32 65.94% -0.132 0.143 -0.013
Dahan Insurrection 4 4255 25.3% 50.57 79.98% 0.245 0.0644 0.758
Despicable Theft 2 658 42.86% 27.0 54.86% -0.742 0.1255 -0.965
Elemental Invocation 1 920 47.39% 24.99 55.98% -0.494 0.3959 -0.934
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9792 8.18% 40.67 79.46% 0.186 -0.3797 0.577
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1634 51.37% 28.24 61.93% -0.86 -0.0197 -0.881
Rituals of Terror 3 1570 44.99% 36.46 67.71% -0.377 -0.4799 -0.167
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 916 64.98% 29.54 57.1% -0.875 0.0708 -0.96
Second Wave 0 11365 45.79% 30.05 74.24% 0.261 0.3553 0.07
Varied Terrains 2 469 44.78% 23.96 49.89% -1.03 -0.2483 -0.733
Ward the Shores 2 1617 45.55% 30.75 57.82% -1.343 -0.2405 -0.625

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12455 32.2 57.62% 0.315 0.4616 -0.162
Aid From Lesser Spirits 13041 33.56 60.16% 0.334 0.2452 -0.081
All Things Weaken 6987 31.14 53.67% 0.092 0.4129 -0.28
Attenuated Essence 985 29.24 52.89% -0.236 -0.2111 -0.55
Back Against the Wall 12892 32.03 54.77% 0.159 0.2154 -0.309
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 991 29.19 51.36% 0.359 0.5463 -0.404
Burn Brightest Before the End 965 29.59 49.12% 0.056 0.2318 -0.555
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11971 29.11 53.11% 0.04 0.4359 -0.409
Downward Spiral 27310 25.35 58.75% 0.14 0.2085 -0.181
Erosion of Will 12275 30.6 54.02% 0.004 0.2921 -0.478
Intensifying Exploitation 1060 27.08 46.13% -0.346 -0.0683 -0.591
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3123 35.59 76.98% 0.636 0.1755 0.254
Memory Fades to Dust 27557 24.77 54.81% 0.034 0.2485 -0.297
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6874 30.78 54.55% 0.334 0.4974 -0.393
Promising Farmlands 12645 29.36 54.2% -0.032 0.2593 -0.537
Shattered Fragments of Power 1027 31.75 52.29% 0.122 0.3015 -0.139
Slow Dissolution of Will 949 28.68 46.89% -0.044 0.3335 -0.487
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1985 36.3 82.37% 0.91 0.1806 0.771
The Border of Life and Death 301 29.3 62.13% 0.467 -0.1354 -0.013
Thriving Communities 6852 30.51 54.6% 0.187 0.4831 -0.207
Thriving Crops 503 29.19 53.68% 0.024 0.0337 -0.236
Tipping Point 3800 29.22 51.76% -0.455
Unnatural Proliferation 7458 32.68 57.0% 0.108 0.2523 -0.292
Untended Land Crumbles 7147 29.71 51.8% -0.269 0.0793 -0.495

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 144752 44.84% 28.74 69.24% -0.024 0.8387 -0.031
B 147064 44.97% 28.91 69.38% -0.05 0.7813 0.001
C 147252 44.84% 29.09 69.56% -0.003 0.6873 0.023
D 141387 44.73% 28.5 69.37% -0.039 0.7976 -0.045
E 58523 46.33% 31.3 68.64% 0.078 0.7787 -0.08
F 77496 44.74% 31.16 71.06% 0.014 0.8375 0.052
G 73212 44.8% 31.08 70.84% 0.048 0.8949 0.071
H 73703 44.5% 31.01 70.73% -0.043 0.7434 -0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28266 0.0% 13.42 52.35% -1.246 -0.5162 -0.511
Not Using Events or Tokens 84877 41.75% 19.77 64.5% -0.453 -0.0319 -0.822
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10017 17.52% 30.37 84.49% 0.537 -0.0733 0.994
Start of Game Growth 14649 20.58% 29.57 83.05% 0.587 -0.014 0.317
Unlimited Undo 41019 37.56% 30.69 76.23% 0.198 0.2131 0.309
Using Tokens but Not Events 36437 31.52% 27.76 78.97% 0.134 0.139 -0.386

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 73817 15.6 11.73%
II 145100 30.47 67.03%
III 146843 34.79 88.15%
IV 65941 38.43 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8659
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 127186
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 93323
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 65338
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 32939
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3698
Lose: Adversary condition 28383
Win: Sacrifice victory 934
Lose: Scenario condition 2094
Win: Scenario condition 5610
Lose: Blight pool ran out 59729
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3808

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-08 06:47:53 (Pacific Time)