Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1503 39.53% 28.43 -0.863 87.69% 0.013 0.3026
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1199 47.12% 32.4 1.186 85.32% -0.058 0.3562
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1595 60.92% 35.48 2.735 69.09% -0.956 -0.0733
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1859 67.04% 36.3 3.262 63.1% -1.186 0.0566
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1326 82.88% 38.53 4.701 51.51% -1.402 0.0943
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 578 88.58% 35.92 3.409 36.51% -1.988 -0.0491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2169 86.03% 39.66 5.294 38.73% -1.945 0.0983
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9606 31.49% 25.21 -2.125 88.66% 0.13 0.1714
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6557 36.72% 30.04 0.433 89.45% 0.368 0.3495
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 8489 44.11% 38.09 4.497 87.48% 0.216 0.2294
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8577 47.4% 44.53 7.627 85.02% -0.008 0.2755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6176 49.36% 46.91 8.819 82.69% -0.184 0.1751
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3867 54.94% 51.88 11.352 74.81% -0.642 0.1828
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7388 63.21% 51.08 10.836 65.15% -1.12 0.1194
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7693 32.13% 24.55 -2.464 84.06% -0.305 0.025
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4041 41.09% 31.81 1.336 78.62% -0.544 -0.0269
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5476 55.25% 31.65 1.315 67.46% -1.018 -0.0441
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5959 63.24% 34.4 2.703 53.42% -1.633 -0.0533
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6055 56.97% 41.4 5.863 59.95% -1.475 0.02
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1906 72.17% 39.6 5.092 39.4% -2.26 -0.1899
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7442 67.61% 43.46 7.02 40.88% -2.279 -0.035
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4773 38.84% 29.3 -0.646 83.74% -0.269 0.2426
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2613 59.95% 29.32 -0.199 70.84% -0.736 0.1668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5341 47.73% 33.93 1.97 54.28% -1.93 0.211
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4964 60.67% 38.37 4.37 49.44% -1.925 0.2736
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3473 58.17% 42.86 6.566 51.89% -1.89 0.2704
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1629 64.74% 48.23 9.136 54.82% -1.636 0.1811
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7760 63.94% 52.37 11.233 55.06% -1.649 0.4419
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5756 33.36% 24.23 -2.71 86.64% -0.017 0.0716
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3352 36.79% 29.5 0.054 87.53% 0.184 0.2194
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4379 44.15% 32.15 1.4 85.2% 0.029 0.2667
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4953 54.41% 40.02 5.33 81.97% -0.108 0.182
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3253 67.38% 39.53 5.203 72.67% -0.519 0.2621
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1591 72.14% 39.68 5.34 62.35% -0.977 0.1917
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6550 68.06% 44.72 7.557 66.89% -0.892 0.2307
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1063 31.1% 25.45 -2.669 90.87% 0.151 0.0623
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 716 49.72% 30.67 0.016 77.23% -0.687 0.0923
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 948 46.73% 37.87 3.619 86.92% -0.047 0.3643
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1228 66.78% 39.77 4.77 66.94% -1.039 0.2051
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 953 67.26% 43.66 6.697 66.21% -1.064 0.0438
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 637 85.4% 38.68 4.375 34.07% -2.252 -0.2685
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1651 82.19% 48.27 8.83 40.28% -2.059 -0.1868

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2780 45.03% 29.86 -1.097 72.48% -0.468 0.0975
Dahan Insurrection 4 3923 27.9% 52.05 10.068 81.8% -0.103 0.2976
Despicable Theft 2 149 47.65% 34.29 1.472 75.84% -0.342 -0.0681
Elemental Invocation 1 327 57.8% 30.2 -1.01 65.14% -0.653 -0.1506
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8860 8.38% 41.02 3.974 82.82% -0.594 -0.2295
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1376 59.35% 31.69 0.415 70.35% -0.343 0.1034
Rituals of Terror 3 1315 48.69% 39.29 4.744 73.38% -0.304 0.3407
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 752 74.7% 34.66 2.403 66.22% -0.438 0.2086
Second Wave 0 9140 47.59% 30.76 -0.206 75.34% -0.522 -0.0921
Ward the Shores 2 1368 49.63% 33.63 1.053 63.08% -1.036 -0.0044

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 8291 32.1 -1.497 57.35% -1.89 0.1791
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8733 33.6 -0.755 59.92% -1.783 0.1297
All Things Weaken 3408 32.19 -1.534 55.81% -1.942 0.2175
Back Against the Wall 8669 32.14 -1.495 54.85% -1.998 0.0889
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7832 29.31 -2.965 52.76% -2.081 0.1415
Downward Spiral 18340 26.21 -2.892 61.32% -1.898 0.1234
Erosion of Will 8154 30.98 -2.116 54.08% -2.048 0.1599
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1519 37.76 1.242 80.97% -0.697 -0.0179
Memory Fades to Dust 18433 25.6 -3.212 57.16% -2.1 0.1153
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3330 31.75 -1.82 55.92% -1.919 0.1016
Promising Farmlands 8396 29.47 -2.75 54.63% -2.027 0.181
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 934 37.21 1.268 85.97% -0.353 0.0584
Thriving Communities 3180 31.27 -2.055 55.31% -1.942 0.1456
Tipping Point 3798 29.23 -2.857 51.79% -2.157 0.0679
Unnatural Proliferation 3696 33.29 -0.965 58.25% -1.825 0.2554
Untended Land Crumbles 3356 31.06 -2.13 54.23% -1.987 0.1149

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 89509 46.58% 30.84 -0.257 74.92% -0.035 -0.7228
B 91632 46.56% 30.96 -0.182 74.9% -0.024 -0.8082
C 91218 46.36% 31.14 -0.057 75.1% 0.01 -1.0031
D 88452 46.36% 30.71 -0.254 75.19% -0.01 -0.7871
E 24718 50.16% 33.99 0.32 73.8% -0.019 -0.9136
F 40590 46.04% 33.64 0.425 76.69% 0.067 -0.7739
G 38808 46.63% 33.55 0.393 76.26% 0.034 -0.7979
H 39065 45.98% 33.36 0.268 76.15% -0.002 -0.8407

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15777 0.0% 16.81 -5.478 65.56% -2.26 -0.2075
Not Using Events or Tokens 50452 44.44% 22.78 -3.23 74.72% -0.198 0.0164
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6181 15.74% 30.84 1.227 90.89% 0.744 0.0575
Start of Game Growth 8612 20.29% 30.58 0.596 88.73% 0.391 -0.0778
Unlimited Undo 24018 38.83% 32.8 0.748 81.86% 0.332 -0.0909
Using Tokens but Not Events 22082 32.39% 29.85 -1.065 83.8% 0.086 0.035

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 29114 22.37 21.03%
II 90929 30.88 68.95%
III 90972 34.39 88.06%
IV 40981 37.55 99.52%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4474
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 62448
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 44920
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 32309
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2322
Lose: Adversary condition 17639
Win: Sacrifice victory 546
Lose: Scenario condition 1533
Win: Scenario condition 4070
Lose: Blight pool ran out 38317
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2475

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)