Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 255 31.37% 27.38 78.43% 0.243 0.0387 -0.294
Blitz 0 2970 43.06% 29.45 71.08% -0.091 0.061 -0.092
Dahan Insurrection 4 3540 27.05% 52.55 81.72% 1.318 1.0786 0.695
Despicable Theft 2 419 46.3% 32.17 66.11% -0.815 -0.0392 -1.077
Elemental Invocation 1 612 53.1% 30.03 65.52% -0.56 0.2223 -0.784
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8434 7.98% 42.26 82.75% 0.938 0.3236 0.439
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1305 56.98% 31.28 68.51% -0.445 0.0684 -0.809
Rituals of Terror 3 1290 48.63% 39.37 71.86% 0.033 0.101 -0.257
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 734 71.51% 33.32 64.58% -1.341 -0.3416 -0.842
Second Wave 0 9654 45.99% 30.4 75.61% 0.067 0.1333 -0.206
Varied Terrains 2 211 51.66% 29.86 63.98% -0.665 -0.119 -1.18
Ward the Shores 2 1344 48.31% 33.57 62.72% -0.821 0.3295 -0.583

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10975 32.47 58.13% 0.001 0.2122 -0.507
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11530 33.79 60.4% 0.223 0.1912 -0.477
All Things Weaken 5654 32.12 55.62% -0.382 0.0302 -0.61
Attenuated Essence 190 29.5 52.63% 0.08 0.2322 -1.092
Back Against the Wall 11422 32.29 54.96% -0.025 0.0823 -0.671
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 208 27.41 43.75% -0.389 -0.0506 -1.06
Burn Brightest Before the End 165 30.39 50.3% -0.103 0.1341 -1.236
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10469 29.57 53.61% -0.21 0.2611 -0.772
Downward Spiral 23529 26.11 60.2% -0.069 0.2171 -0.571
Erosion of Will 10763 30.99 54.49% -0.237 0.1114 -0.818
Intensifying Exploitation 214 27.46 44.39% -0.291 0.0554 -1.3
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2490 37.35 79.8% 0.48 -0.0483 0.026
Memory Fades to Dust 23699 25.55 56.39% -0.156 0.2613 -0.64
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5564 31.26 54.91% -0.067 0.1928 -0.746
Promising Farmlands 11112 29.68 54.7% -0.17 0.3487 -0.864
Shattered Fragments of Power 216 31.31 52.78% -0.151 -0.0416 -0.504
Slow Dissolution of Will 173 28.72 45.09% -0.256 0.2168 -1.364
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1607 37.36 85.5% 0.791 0.1738 0.527
The Border of Life and Death 59 31.27 69.49% 0.619 0.3153 -0.078
Thriving Communities 5453 31.28 55.35% -0.115 0.2853 -0.615
Thriving Crops 109 33.95 65.14% 0.52 0.4921 -0.468
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.803
Unnatural Proliferation 6124 33.28 57.76% 0.136 0.3725 -0.687
Untended Land Crumbles 5735 30.52 52.82% -0.307 -0.006 -0.838

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 117594 46.41% 30.65 73.81% -0.006 0.8439 -0.034
B 120081 46.45% 30.76 73.78% -0.038 0.7744 -0.012
C 120257 46.25% 30.92 73.91% -0.058 0.6264 0.008
D 115493 46.23% 30.37 73.96% -0.052 0.7723 -0.037
E 43151 48.62% 33.48 72.95% 0.152 0.7998 -0.068
F 60608 46.25% 33.06 75.27% -0.008 0.7386 0.048
G 57504 46.25% 32.95 75.0% -0.028 0.7392 0.076
H 57890 45.91% 32.85 74.96% 0.018 0.6988 0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20534 0.0% 16.05 62.6% -1.099 -0.2656 -0.812
Not Using Events or Tokens 65215 44.04% 22.25 72.52% -0.477 -0.1477 -0.708
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8177 17.34% 31.48 88.98% 0.174 -0.4119 0.756
Start of Game Growth 11662 21.17% 30.96 87.27% 0.262 -0.0088 0.167
Unlimited Undo 32832 38.68% 32.37 80.39% -0.163 -0.1695 0.376
Using Tokens but Not Events 29842 32.3% 29.27 82.59% 0.218 0.1485 -0.36

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43772 20.82 17.75%
II 122323 31.03 68.3%
III 124258 34.74 88.25%
IV 55943 38.03 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7768
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107626
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80066
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55414
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5638
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3124
Lose: Adversary condition 24229
Win: Sacrifice victory 810
Lose: Scenario condition 1866
Win: Scenario condition 5008
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51476
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3271

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-03 04:12:43 (Pacific Time)