Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2122 40.54% 28.98 -0.271 85.53% -0.61 -0.059
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1626 48.34% 32.43 0.984 82.84% -0.578 0.2996
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2100 60.74% 36.32 4.586 70.71% -0.639 0.4803
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2500 67.97% 36.26 1.329 61.92% -1.731 -0.1999
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1655 83.08% 38.86 4.141 52.15% -1.528 0.0592
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 745 88.46% 36.62 7.936 38.26% -0.853 0.7096
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2890 86.61% 39.9 5.395 38.55% -1.888 0.3729
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11197 32.47% 25.27 -2.015 88.15% -0.242 0.0026
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7998 36.92% 30.16 0.091 89.0% 0.045 -0.0812
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10415 43.82% 38.32 4.539 87.54% 0.202 0.3175
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 10315 47.24% 44.71 7.184 85.24% -0.241 0.1329
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7674 48.42% 47.13 9.839 83.33% 0.121 0.5871
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4393 55.86% 51.83 13.014 74.87% -0.305 0.6802
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8878 65.14% 50.49 8.659 63.62% -1.443 0.1326
The Kingdom of England 0 1 8921 32.9% 24.7 -2.01 83.68% -0.531 -0.0148
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4935 40.79% 32.13 1.726 78.95% -0.558 0.051
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6707 55.11% 31.93 2.027 67.81% -1.042 0.085
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7104 63.46% 34.61 1.959 54.0% -1.896 -0.153
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7561 55.13% 42.12 6.02 61.26% -1.765 -0.1864
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2222 72.53% 39.61 6.858 39.56% -1.613 0.1246
The Kingdom of England 6 11 8863 68.27% 43.63 7.67 40.88% -2.201 0.0979
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5524 39.5% 29.39 -0.473 83.47% -0.562 0.3405
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3204 59.41% 29.61 0.69 70.85% -0.789 0.1013
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6439 47.64% 34.46 2.557 55.15% -1.774 0.6282
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5756 60.64% 38.7 5.016 50.03% -1.941 0.4432
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4103 57.97% 43.06 4.636 52.11% -2.426 0.0499
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1914 64.4% 48.48 6.77 54.75% -2.242 -0.1641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9369 64.8% 52.03 7.034 53.6% -2.367 0.0002
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 159 27.67% 28.14 -1.909 89.94% -0.138 -0.2616
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 137 40.15% 31.79 0.085 78.1% -0.887 -0.0418
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 168 42.86% 36.99 2.497 83.93% -0.408 0.4201
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 271 41.33% 44.27 6.395 80.07% -0.851 0.0195
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 170 54.12% 44.43 6.588 72.94% -1.093 0.1423
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 150 72.0% 44.47 6.822 62.67% -1.296 0.1353
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 532 73.07% 48.19 8.129 51.5% -1.799 -0.1004
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6625 34.85% 24.24 -1.936 85.52% -0.074 0.0929
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4103 37.48% 29.69 -0.107 87.16% 0.109 -0.1141
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5400 44.78% 32.4 1.12 84.91% -0.527 -0.0739
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5863 54.57% 40.17 5.185 82.19% -0.163 0.1466
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3812 67.28% 39.7 4.686 73.03% -0.668 0.2837
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1912 70.48% 40.33 7.386 63.96% -0.619 0.3621
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7902 69.03% 44.91 6.489 66.38% -1.008 0.1838
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1663 33.31% 27.06 -0.68 89.48% 0.292 0.2357
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1083 51.53% 31.26 -0.066 76.82% -0.925 -0.1507
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1383 47.22% 38.17 4.126 85.83% -0.137 0.5735
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1658 66.32% 40.4 4.051 67.79% -1.177 0.1614
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1256 68.15% 43.76 6.518 65.84% -1.147 0.238
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 814 85.5% 38.79 2.651 34.28% -2.604 -0.6663
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2358 83.67% 47.76 6.907 38.8% -2.25 -0.2309

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 77 29.87% 28.91 93.51% 0.523 0.3206 -0.145
Blitz 0 2584 45.12% 29.2 71.87% -0.692 -0.4346 -0.179
Dahan Insurrection 4 3224 27.98% 52.6 81.11% 0.273 0.6862 0.596
Despicable Theft 2 300 47.33% 34.15 71.0% -0.573 -0.1269 -1.072
Elemental Invocation 1 469 55.44% 30.58 66.1% -0.243 0.2428 -0.688
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7439 8.0% 42.04 83.06% -0.146 0.1596 0.279
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1176 58.41% 31.88 69.9% 0.031 0.2129 -0.773
Rituals of Terror 3 1126 48.52% 39.51 73.53% -1.195 -1.0734 -0.215
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 644 73.91% 34.65 66.77% -0.254 0.1612 -0.796
Second Wave 0 8432 46.58% 30.44 76.15% -0.519 0.0469 -0.229
Varied Terrains 2 76 55.26% 36.26 77.63% -0.333 0.1928 -0.336
Ward the Shores 2 1196 48.82% 34.22 63.71% -1.078 0.084 -0.56

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9964 32.42 58.26% -1.524 0.3794 -0.688
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10495 33.77 60.28% -1.499 0.2304 -0.66
All Things Weaken 4696 32.42 56.2% -1.488 0.4975 -0.813
Back Against the Wall 10374 32.3 54.88% -1.834 -0.0172 -0.873
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9438 29.59 53.52% -1.697 0.3537 -0.977
Downward Spiral 21521 26.27 60.8% -1.919 0.0743 -0.74
Erosion of Will 9773 31.03 54.46% -1.862 0.2207 -1.01
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2086 37.89 80.54% -0.781 -0.34 -0.105
Memory Fades to Dust 21644 25.73 56.94% -1.73 0.3537 -0.85
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4689 31.66 55.34% -1.731 0.2073 -0.898
Promising Farmlands 10044 29.69 54.92% -1.644 0.4023 -1.056
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1352 37.28 86.46% -0.089 0.3355 0.314
Thriving Communities 4495 31.42 55.86% -1.653 0.331 -0.803
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.979
Unnatural Proliferation 5121 33.33 57.57% -1.718 0.2466 -0.899
Untended Land Crumbles 4757 30.79 53.79% -1.899 0.0941 -0.996

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 105314 46.74% 31.01 74.91% 0.034 0.8315 -0.024
B 107716 46.8% 31.11 74.88% 0.027 0.7707 -0.023
C 107389 46.69% 31.25 75.04% -0.021 0.5472 0.01
D 103535 46.6% 30.78 75.11% -0.013 0.7831 -0.018
E 34872 49.76% 34.12 74.12% 0.038 0.6851 -0.091
F 51836 46.54% 33.61 76.69% 0.048 0.7723 0.058
G 49196 46.75% 33.48 76.34% -0.018 0.7141 0.077
H 49680 46.41% 33.37 76.17% -0.072 0.6399 -0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 18253 0.0% 16.72 65.24% -2.474 -0.3444 -1.884
Not Using Events or Tokens 58989 44.25% 22.81 74.46% -0.164 0.011 -0.704
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7156 15.6% 31.28 91.0% 0.265 0.1228 -0.353
Start of Game Growth 10190 20.5% 31.01 89.0% 0.664 -0.0966 0.199
Unlimited Undo 28699 38.75% 33.04 82.15% 0.42 -0.1838 0.45
Using Tokens but Not Events 26301 32.44% 29.79 83.67% -0.035 -0.1917 -0.409

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35062 22.56 20.61%
II 109126 30.98 68.66%
III 110553 34.53 88.19%
IV 50032 37.77 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7223
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 95630
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 71708
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 49554
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2773
Lose: Adversary condition 21493
Win: Sacrifice victory 700
Lose: Scenario condition 1735
Win: Scenario condition 4651
Lose: Blight pool ran out 46335
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2971

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)