Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2516 39.27% 28.73 0.18 83.55% -0.119 0.1442
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2014 46.97% 31.35 0.414 79.84% -0.292 0.0548
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2557 59.62% 35.37 2.477 68.56% -0.684 0.1458
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2989 67.43% 35.68 1.727 60.72% -1.034 -0.0423
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1987 81.68% 38.1 2.925 50.73% -1.365 -0.0448
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 905 88.18% 36.09 2.032 37.57% -1.645 0.0177
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3480 83.82% 38.18 -1.651 36.87% -2.361 -0.3481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12364 32.75% 24.95 -1.0 86.7% -0.051 0.034
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9242 36.44% 29.78 1.352 87.52% 0.282 0.1869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11859 43.76% 37.82 4.359 86.18% 0.145 0.1333
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11566 46.63% 44.23 7.386 84.27% 0.2 0.3968
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8536 48.1% 46.81 8.582 82.66% 0.106 0.3088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4773 55.89% 51.3 8.058 74.13% -0.555 0.0065
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9974 64.81% 49.62 5.49 62.53% -1.052 0.2862
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9910 32.81% 24.39 -2.574 81.97% -0.572 -0.3063
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5710 40.17% 31.65 1.503 77.64% -0.238 -0.0548
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7682 54.74% 31.31 1.207 66.14% -0.705 0.0312
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7997 62.15% 34.17 2.211 53.46% -0.967 0.1723
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8670 53.72% 41.76 4.398 61.04% -0.882 0.1638
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2489 71.73% 39.31 1.479 39.65% -1.981 -0.3405
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10155 67.39% 42.35 0.77 39.22% -2.331 -0.2891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6056 39.21% 28.96 -1.384 81.98% -0.508 -0.1051
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3751 57.69% 29.2 -0.425 69.5% -0.772 0.1838
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7183 47.2% 34.43 4.352 55.34% -0.68 0.3938
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6366 60.01% 38.46 5.838 49.84% -0.802 0.4857
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4551 57.42% 42.61 4.925 51.44% -1.348 0.054
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2134 63.62% 48.43 8.64 55.01% -0.999 -0.0705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10564 63.75% 51.15 6.712 52.51% -1.299 0.0449
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 600 29.05% 24.34 -2.023 78.33% -0.26 -0.2437
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 542 35.42% 29.44 1.617 69.19% -0.234 0.1963
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 704 43.67% 32.96 2.165 70.45% -0.373 0.068
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1088 41.91% 40.42 5.06 73.71% -0.405 -0.0192
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 875 46.86% 43.45 8.9 73.37% -0.011 0.6076
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 632 57.44% 45.91 11.241 69.15% 0.104 0.8874
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2044 67.35% 42.53 3.021 46.58% -1.613 -0.3368
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7325 34.81% 23.94 -1.475 84.23% -0.001 0.1788
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4669 37.31% 29.43 1.012 85.86% 0.118 0.144
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6257 44.7% 31.86 1.319 83.04% -0.057 0.1665
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6630 54.75% 39.35 2.289 80.21% -0.459 -0.0318
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4361 66.61% 39.04 3.491 71.43% -0.539 0.0694
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2176 69.46% 40.01 1.436 63.74% -1.164 -0.1542
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9042 68.04% 43.87 2.592 64.37% -1.018 -0.1305
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2049 32.06% 26.86 -1.328 87.55% -0.102 0.0189
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1391 50.97% 29.98 -0.187 73.18% -0.569 0.072
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1761 46.68% 37.22 3.093 83.08% -0.241 0.1853
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2048 64.48% 38.78 1.17 64.94% -1.157 -0.0429
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1522 65.57% 43.24 7.642 65.11% -0.472 0.4324
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 979 84.37% 38.82 5.804 35.04% -1.304 0.1922
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2954 80.94% 44.15 -2.393 35.55% -2.494 -0.6535

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 278 31.29% 27.05 78.06% 0.145 -0.111 -0.425
Blitz 0 3042 42.74% 29.43 70.71% 0.066 0.2634 -0.084
Dahan Insurrection 4 3582 27.04% 52.56 81.71% 1.242 0.7992 0.711
Despicable Theft 2 440 46.14% 31.68 64.77% -0.788 0.0238 -1.032
Elemental Invocation 1 624 53.04% 29.76 65.06% -0.443 0.2596 -0.792
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8548 7.97% 42.18 82.64% 0.935 0.2902 0.466
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1324 56.61% 31.05 67.98% -0.403 0.2324 -0.807
Rituals of Terror 3 1303 48.45% 39.27 71.68% -0.178 -0.0768 -0.232
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 740 71.06% 33.11 64.19% -1.231 -0.2219 -0.849
Second Wave 0 9754 45.91% 30.35 75.43% -0.041 0.0251 -0.205
Varied Terrains 2 243 51.85% 29.32 62.14% -0.497 0.126 -0.893
Ward the Shores 2 1351 48.29% 33.43 62.47% -0.584 0.5005 -0.574

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11062 32.42 58.01% -0.048 0.1942 -0.469
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11609 33.77 60.37% 0.304 0.2264 -0.427
All Things Weaken 5754 32.0 55.39% -0.337 0.0559 -0.58
Attenuated Essence 251 29.88 52.99% 0.269 0.3755 -1.004
Back Against the Wall 11513 32.27 54.89% -0.151 -0.0934 -0.638
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 257 28.52 46.69% -0.101 0.1006 -0.954
Burn Brightest Before the End 208 29.83 47.12% -0.215 -0.0049 -1.202
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10547 29.53 53.56% -0.199 0.2248 -0.729
Downward Spiral 23713 26.07 60.11% 0.012 0.2476 -0.534
Erosion of Will 10842 30.97 54.42% -0.139 0.1701 -0.776
Intensifying Exploitation 266 28.43 46.24% -0.092 0.1954 -1.162
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2518 37.23 79.55% 0.43 -0.064 0.044
Memory Fades to Dust 23877 25.52 56.35% -0.041 0.2952 -0.596
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5643 31.2 54.67% -0.035 0.185 -0.712
Promising Farmlands 11209 29.66 54.64% -0.105 0.3486 -0.818
Shattered Fragments of Power 273 30.87 51.28% -0.143 -0.0917 -0.662
Slow Dissolution of Will 230 27.65 45.22% -0.161 0.2381 -1.228
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1637 37.23 85.16% 0.618 -0.0932 0.537
The Border of Life and Death 77 30.34 64.94% 0.539 0.2039 -0.432
Thriving Communities 5548 31.19 55.23% -0.122 0.2413 -0.56
Thriving Crops 145 32.32 60.0% 0.508 0.3103 -0.512
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.764
Unnatural Proliferation 6202 33.26 57.79% 0.141 0.3557 -0.633
Untended Land Crumbles 5817 30.44 52.74% -0.23 0.0519 -0.792

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 119181 46.31% 30.53 73.48% 0.002 0.7426 -0.034
B 121559 46.31% 30.65 73.48% -0.008 0.718 -0.006
C 121858 46.11% 30.81 73.61% -0.042 0.5405 0.013
D 116929 46.14% 30.26 73.64% -0.047 0.6642 -0.037
E 44136 48.41% 33.29 72.56% 0.107 0.6727 -0.076
F 61685 46.07% 32.89 74.89% -0.027 0.6436 0.05
G 58465 46.16% 32.8 74.63% -0.021 0.6307 0.073
H 58821 45.79% 32.72 74.65% 0.014 0.585 0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20918 0.0% 15.86 61.88% -1.107 -0.3303 -0.783
Not Using Events or Tokens 66091 43.9% 22.1 72.01% -0.506 -0.1267 -0.706
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8275 17.48% 31.45 88.56% 0.149 -0.4684 0.883
Start of Game Growth 11816 21.21% 30.89 86.89% 0.306 -0.0424 0.197
Unlimited Undo 33321 38.66% 32.25 80.03% -0.123 -0.13 0.379
Using Tokens but Not Events 30250 32.29% 29.16 82.23% 0.148 0.1377 -0.347

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 45623 20.4 17.15%
II 123702 31.01 68.24%
III 125543 34.76 88.26%
IV 56457 38.07 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7821
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 108759
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80905
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55922
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 7303
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3152
Lose: Adversary condition 24507
Win: Sacrifice victory 819
Lose: Scenario condition 1877
Win: Scenario condition 5043
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51918
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3299

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)