Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2501 39.43% 28.79 0.247 83.77% -0.09 0.1723
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1977 47.19% 31.57 0.525 80.37% -0.278 0.0881
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2532 59.7% 35.46 2.241 68.8% -0.681 0.0811
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2951 67.65% 35.76 1.603 60.89% -1.077 -0.0227
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1956 81.9% 38.31 3.887 51.02% -1.336 -0.0134
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 887 88.39% 36.37 2.755 37.99% -1.596 0.147
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3442 84.22% 38.46 -0.789 37.16% -2.266 -0.2295
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 12304 32.74% 24.96 -1.449 86.77% -0.188 -0.0714
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9188 36.39% 29.79 0.903 87.58% 0.159 0.0665
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11787 43.78% 37.86 3.997 86.26% 0.063 0.0509
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 11483 46.68% 44.27 6.867 84.34% 0.052 0.2596
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 8504 48.09% 46.83 8.773 82.7% 0.125 0.2665
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4745 55.93% 51.41 8.857 74.29% -0.463 0.0597
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9912 64.92% 49.71 5.67 62.63% -1.099 0.2024
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9837 32.81% 24.44 -2.624 82.17% -0.579 -0.33
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5670 40.28% 31.7 1.35 77.74% -0.318 -0.1521
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7609 54.73% 31.39 0.973 66.37% -0.752 -0.0348
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7958 62.17% 34.24 2.252 53.57% -0.952 0.1775
The Kingdom of England 4 7 8610 53.87% 41.82 4.152 61.08% -0.95 0.0539
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2468 71.98% 39.48 1.743 39.87% -1.877 -0.2485
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10040 67.55% 42.55 1.072 39.45% -2.303 -0.2455
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6026 39.2% 29.03 -1.512 82.21% -0.557 -0.161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3720 57.82% 29.3 -0.253 69.76% -0.736 0.2206
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7150 47.34% 34.43 3.638 55.3% -0.802 0.278
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6343 60.07% 38.43 5.058 49.76% -1.004 0.3239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4530 57.51% 42.62 4.714 51.43% -1.391 0.0291
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2118 63.72% 48.43 9.087 55.0% -0.958 -0.1067
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10481 63.83% 51.25 5.676 52.68% -1.453 -0.1444
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 575 29.27% 24.64 -1.367 79.13% -0.098 -0.1334
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 526 35.36% 29.51 1.451 69.2% -0.275 0.1516
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 659 44.38% 33.49 3.123 71.78% -0.119 0.2489
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1046 41.87% 40.77 5.368 74.28% -0.39 -0.0148
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 847 47.34% 43.58 9.045 73.55% 0.021 0.6193
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 610 58.52% 45.7 9.731 68.85% -0.156 0.6115
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1964 67.96% 42.83 2.938 46.69% -1.681 -0.4156
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 7295 34.76% 23.97 -1.66 84.41% -0.036 0.1326
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4649 37.32% 29.47 1.136 85.98% 0.161 0.1623
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 6206 44.55% 31.92 1.137 83.13% -0.152 0.0659
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6576 54.84% 39.43 2.453 80.37% -0.51 -0.0803
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4318 66.83% 39.11 3.079 71.54% -0.635 -0.0716
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2160 69.65% 40.22 3.197 64.12% -0.837 0.0865
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8965 68.06% 43.94 2.587 64.53% -1.037 -0.1918
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2026 32.23% 26.92 -1.259 87.86% 0.008 0.1265
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1370 51.17% 30.17 0.277 73.72% -0.42 0.138
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1740 47.07% 37.34 3.615 83.33% -0.107 0.2503
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2011 64.68% 39.05 1.255 65.29% -1.206 -0.0546
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1507 66.03% 43.31 7.112 65.16% -0.589 0.4059
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 961 84.7% 38.82 5.447 35.07% -1.054 0.4429
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2895 81.59% 44.7 -1.943 36.1% -2.529 -0.6123

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 264 31.82% 27.2 78.03% 0.173 -0.016 -0.44
Blitz 0 2997 42.89% 29.42 70.94% -0.115 0.0688 -0.079
Dahan Insurrection 4 3553 27.13% 52.53 81.68% 1.295 0.9811 0.696
Despicable Theft 2 427 46.14% 31.98 65.57% -0.835 -0.0898 -1.067
Elemental Invocation 1 618 53.07% 29.89 65.37% -0.554 0.2178 -0.77
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8483 7.97% 42.23 82.69% 0.955 0.3337 0.455
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1314 56.97% 31.23 68.34% -0.388 0.1547 -0.811
Rituals of Terror 3 1300 48.48% 39.29 71.69% -0.133 -0.0261 -0.242
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 739 71.16% 33.15 64.28% -1.286 -0.3147 -0.858
Second Wave 0 9700 45.92% 30.38 75.51% 0.031 0.0987 -0.211
Varied Terrains 2 222 50.45% 29.77 63.96% -0.518 0.0553 -1.09
Ward the Shores 2 1346 48.32% 33.52 62.63% -0.837 0.296 -0.583

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11015 32.43 58.08% 0.04 0.2385 -0.492
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11564 33.78 60.36% 0.233 0.1665 -0.456
All Things Weaken 5701 32.07 55.52% -0.334 0.0342 -0.599
Attenuated Essence 217 29.55 51.61% 0.149 0.22 -1.021
Back Against the Wall 11450 32.28 54.92% -0.101 -0.0319 -0.655
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 227 27.23 44.05% -0.294 -0.0375 -0.965
Burn Brightest Before the End 185 30.67 49.73% -0.018 0.1566 -1.209
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10504 29.56 53.58% -0.217 0.222 -0.755
Downward Spiral 23604 26.09 60.17% 0.019 0.2656 -0.558
Erosion of Will 10800 30.97 54.44% -0.192 0.1255 -0.796
Intensifying Exploitation 238 28.46 46.22% -0.135 0.1343 -1.058
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2503 37.3 79.7% 0.428 -0.0815 0.04
Memory Fades to Dust 23763 25.54 56.38% -0.061 0.3032 -0.623
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5606 31.22 54.82% -0.049 0.1877 -0.727
Promising Farmlands 11156 29.67 54.64% -0.137 0.3234 -0.848
Shattered Fragments of Power 242 30.06 51.24% -0.129 -0.0744 -0.724
Slow Dissolution of Will 195 28.1 44.62% -0.135 0.2724 -1.184
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1619 37.27 85.3% 0.679 0.0362 0.521
The Border of Life and Death 69 31.03 68.12% 0.683 0.2965 -0.174
Thriving Communities 5488 31.28 55.3% -0.084 0.273 -0.597
Thriving Crops 129 32.18 61.24% 0.433 0.3176 -0.606
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.786
Unnatural Proliferation 6163 33.28 57.76% 0.193 0.3659 -0.662
Untended Land Crumbles 5771 30.51 52.8% -0.23 0.018 -0.818

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 118310 46.35% 30.59 73.65% -0.025 0.808 -0.031
B 120757 46.38% 30.71 73.64% -0.034 0.7659 -0.013
C 120970 46.17% 30.87 73.78% -0.055 0.6021 0.009
D 116108 46.17% 30.32 73.81% -0.055 0.7392 -0.037
E 43617 48.5% 33.38 72.77% 0.164 0.792 -0.07
F 61084 46.18% 32.98 75.11% -0.002 0.7109 0.049
G 57927 46.22% 32.88 74.84% -0.048 0.6899 0.076
H 58294 45.85% 32.79 74.83% 0.034 0.6929 0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20697 0.0% 15.96 62.27% -1.165 -0.3514 -0.802
Not Using Events or Tokens 65589 43.96% 22.19 72.3% -0.471 -0.1349 -0.705
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8225 17.39% 31.44 88.75% 0.12 -0.5135 0.85
Start of Game Growth 11733 21.19% 30.92 87.09% 0.283 -0.0065 0.181
Unlimited Undo 33050 38.62% 32.32 80.24% -0.172 -0.1696 0.381
Using Tokens but Not Events 30055 32.32% 29.22 82.41% 0.199 0.1244 -0.356

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 44614 20.63 17.47%
II 122924 31.02 68.27%
III 124826 34.75 88.25%
IV 56177 38.05 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7792
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 108132
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 80439
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55645
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 6390
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3138
Lose: Adversary condition 24348
Win: Sacrifice victory 814
Lose: Scenario condition 1873
Win: Scenario condition 5017
Lose: Blight pool ran out 51671
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3282

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)