Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 177 37.85% 28.45 83.05% 0.754 0.3067 -0.047
Blitz 0 2781 44.45% 29.81 72.53% 0.142 0.5984 -0.11
Dahan Insurrection 4 3426 27.2% 52.56 81.67% 0.138 0.1576 0.603
Despicable Theft 2 368 48.1% 34.07 70.11% -0.714 -0.2011 -0.987
Elemental Invocation 1 553 55.7% 31.01 67.45% -0.133 0.5665 -0.726
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8101 7.99% 42.45 83.13% 0.017 0.0586 0.296
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1238 58.06% 31.99 69.79% -1.198 -0.6361 -0.776
Rituals of Terror 3 1232 48.81% 39.91 72.81% -0.965 -1.2524 -0.307
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 683 73.64% 34.69 67.35% -0.152 0.2785 -0.747
Second Wave 0 9200 46.24% 30.62 76.2% -0.431 0.0308 -0.224
Varied Terrains 2 138 57.97% 34.85 75.36% -0.482 0.3457 -0.35
Ward the Shores 2 1262 48.52% 34.3 64.34% -0.444 0.3004 -0.515

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10632 32.56 58.29% -1.682 0.0481 -0.703
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11166 33.87 60.51% -1.582 -0.0067 -0.655
All Things Weaken 5350 32.46 56.34% -1.605 0.2727 -0.789
Attenuated Essence 5 29.2 60.0% -0.568 0.2867
Back Against the Wall 11076 32.4 55.11% -1.438 0.1989 -0.854
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 18.5 25.0% -1.297 0.1508 -0.777
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 34.67 66.67% -0.298 0.7103 -0.443
Disintegrating Ecosystem 10109 29.74 53.85% -1.624 0.2186 -0.962
Downward Spiral 22767 26.29 60.67% -1.663 0.0353 -0.735
Erosion of Will 10430 31.13 54.74% -1.793 0.1068 -0.996
Intensifying Exploitation 6 35.83 66.67% -0.594 0.2952
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2346 37.88 80.65% -0.411 0.0889 -0.122
Memory Fades to Dust 22906 25.74 56.75% -1.947 -0.0708 -0.816
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5274 31.58 55.35% -1.837 -0.1319 -0.916
Promising Farmlands 10766 29.82 54.93% -1.786 0.0895 -1.038
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 35.13 50.0% -0.899 0.2569 -0.536
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 25.6 40.0% -1.421 0.0503 0.376
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1529 37.74 86.4% -0.042 0.1676 0.434
Thriving Communities 5143 31.56 55.9% -1.633 0.2374 -0.811
Thriving Crops 2 53.5 100.0% 0.218 1.1725
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.972
Unnatural Proliferation 5747 33.48 58.03% -1.451 0.3032 -0.883
Untended Land Crumbles 5418 30.84 53.41% -1.958 -0.1441 -1.002

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 112220 46.76% 31.09 74.93% 0.058 0.8354 -0.028
B 114649 46.79% 31.2 74.89% -0.012 0.6917 -0.022
C 114649 46.58% 31.35 75.07% 0.019 0.5462 0.011
D 110182 46.54% 30.83 75.1% -0.088 0.6469 -0.021
E 39561 49.33% 34.21 74.29% -0.049 0.5353 -0.078
F 56721 46.56% 33.63 76.63% 0.011 0.7182 0.037
G 53948 46.67% 33.52 76.3% 0.125 0.7667 0.088
H 54351 46.34% 33.39 76.17% -0.04 0.6052 0.001

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19362 0.0% 16.62 64.93% -2.026 0.0493 -1.372
Not Using Events or Tokens 62255 44.3% 22.77 74.24% -0.409 -0.2378 -0.719
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7703 15.93% 31.98 90.94% 1.013 -0.046 0.195
Start of Game Growth 11005 20.46% 31.43 88.9% 0.266 -0.1562 0.152
Unlimited Undo 30912 38.85% 33.03 82.09% 0.051 -0.3646 0.43
Using Tokens but Not Events 28435 32.4% 29.67 83.48% -0.061 0.0548 -0.364

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 37618 22.63 20.21%
II 117277 31.12 68.65%
III 119309 34.7 88.24%
IV 53925 37.97 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7600
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 103317
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 77118
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 53410
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 149
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3005
Lose: Adversary condition 23246
Win: Sacrifice victory 776
Lose: Scenario condition 1833
Win: Scenario condition 4882
Lose: Blight pool ran out 49628
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3165

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)