Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 0.0% 30.6 3.038 100.0% 0.653 0.8447
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 6 16.67% 36.5 5.751 100.0% 0.659 -0.7849
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 0.0% 29.6 4.718 60.0% -0.054 -0.0822
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 9 77.78% 36.56 4.927 77.78% -0.052 -0.2668
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 17 41.18% 42.59 8.486 76.47% -0.133 -0.4068
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 2 100.0% 64.0 18.219 100.0% 0.32 0.6247
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 100.0% 51.2 13.468 60.0% -0.206 1.3284
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3523 36.75% 26.03 -2.02 73.97% -0.663 -0.3328
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2890 43.39% 29.12 0.836 73.56% -0.261 0.1697
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 3543 56.11% 32.92 2.769 63.79% -0.461 0.1594
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4064 64.06% 33.42 2.818 57.01% -0.737 0.1089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2807 78.48% 35.54 3.058 47.27% -1.177 0.2304
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1133 83.94% 35.33 4.013 38.75% -0.983 0.5839
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4709 79.55% 34.77 -0.783 33.3% -2.489 -0.536
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 15393 32.23% 23.29 -1.429 80.31% -0.103 0.1146
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12056 36.14% 27.94 1.131 81.98% 0.177 0.2974
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15351 42.22% 35.93 3.268 81.58% -0.048 0.0698
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14822 45.61% 42.14 4.777 80.39% -0.234 0.0648
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10736 46.62% 44.77 7.03 79.18% -0.064 0.2165
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5727 55.27% 48.44 4.854 69.77% -0.878 -0.6372
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 12929 63.19% 45.83 5.536 57.76% -0.906 0.3244
The Kingdom of England 0 1 12421 31.55% 22.86 -1.917 75.86% -0.44 -0.0719
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7438 39.32% 29.64 0.201 72.32% -0.564 -0.0688
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10099 52.74% 29.24 1.363 61.58% -0.58 0.007
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10240 59.76% 32.05 0.013 50.01% -1.474 -0.2913
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10717 52.41% 39.48 5.908 57.53% -0.64 0.3052
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3280 68.99% 36.28 2.451 36.4% -1.768 -0.4947
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13011 64.47% 39.21 1.567 36.33% -1.926 -0.021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7354 38.65% 27.14 -2.056 76.12% -0.746 -0.2311
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4830 54.68% 27.28 -2.357 64.35% -1.001 -0.1964
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 8860 45.65% 33.02 2.08 53.3% -0.992 0.1582
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7862 58.09% 36.98 3.558 47.94% -1.228 -0.0359
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5596 55.96% 41.2 3.907 49.36% -1.252 0.009
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2769 60.62% 46.89 11.153 54.14% -0.511 0.5175
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13138 61.11% 48.17 3.566 49.12% -1.573 -0.1295
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1602 26.73% 20.21 -2.056 62.48% -0.217 0.0194
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1415 33.66% 25.59 1.231 60.14% -0.29 0.0451
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1812 40.53% 29.7 3.15 64.51% 0.134 0.5035
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2642 40.12% 37.24 6.38 67.56% -0.14 0.0767
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2228 44.97% 38.74 4.169 64.81% -0.868 0.076
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1829 49.37% 40.61 7.988 61.73% -0.327 0.2285
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5824 58.51% 37.33 5.089 43.61% -1.198 0.0029
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8990 34.04% 22.42 -2.738 78.09% -0.384 -0.1105
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5938 36.08% 27.85 -0.53 80.75% -0.084 0.1025
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8060 43.39% 30.06 0.545 77.84% -0.189 0.0414
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8514 52.17% 36.94 3.701 75.42% -0.31 0.1427
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5494 63.72% 36.81 4.284 67.33% -0.291 0.4277
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2833 66.0% 37.91 4.641 60.32% -0.432 0.4358
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11693 64.69% 41.24 5.39 60.69% -0.695 0.3229
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 3177 29.93% 24.12 -1.621 75.83% -0.155 0.018
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2095 47.25% 25.89 -2.649 62.82% -0.913 -0.1796
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2538 44.56% 33.95 2.988 75.41% -0.147 0.3365
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3007 62.38% 35.24 2.195 58.53% -0.907 -0.1155
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2184 62.0% 40.35 6.118 60.9% -0.696 0.2057
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1257 79.16% 36.43 2.103 33.49% -1.589 0.211
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4244 77.45% 38.77 -0.255 30.56% -2.435 -0.5498

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 568 25.53% 24.16 69.54% 0.506 -0.0433 -0.473
Blitz 0 4148 38.67% 26.63 64.44% -0.471 -0.0187 -0.019
Dahan Insurrection 4 4470 25.05% 49.93 79.17% 0.349 -0.1547 0.8
Despicable Theft 2 767 41.2% 25.99 53.32% -0.268 0.3619 -1.034
Elemental Invocation 1 1073 45.2% 23.27 51.82% -1.703 -0.863 -1.115
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10290 8.18% 40.3 78.54% 0.206 -0.4927 0.604
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1788 49.89% 27.15 59.79% -0.74 -0.1219 -0.875
Rituals of Terror 3 1685 43.55% 35.57 66.23% -0.528 -0.548 -0.132
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 995 62.73% 28.68 55.38% -0.793 -0.0337 -0.894
Second Wave 0 12119 45.7% 29.83 73.68% 0.143 0.2048 0.104
Varied Terrains 2 570 44.39% 23.87 48.6% -0.624 0.1712 -0.579
Ward the Shores 2 1748 44.59% 29.87 56.52% -0.639 0.1668 -0.649

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 13065 32.13 57.41% 0.445 0.6277 -0.079
Aid From Lesser Spirits 13649 33.49 59.99% 0.184 0.0666 0.006
All Things Weaken 7565 30.98 53.22% -0.299 -0.0674 -0.206
Attenuated Essence 1315 29.71 53.54% 0.143 0.2414 -0.276
Back Against the Wall 13501 32.08 54.87% 0.214 0.2197 -0.2
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1344 29.48 50.07% -0.148 -0.0091 -0.422
Burn Brightest Before the End 1347 29.8 48.11% -0.194 -0.0167 -0.599
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12598 29.0 52.94% -0.112 0.2396 -0.309
Downward Spiral 28795 25.18 58.14% 0.005 0.1714 -0.101
Erosion of Will 12864 30.48 53.75% -0.028 0.2237 -0.384
Intensifying Exploitation 1424 27.64 47.33% -0.102 0.183 -0.468
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3358 35.26 75.91% 0.138 -0.1803 0.308
Memory Fades to Dust 28992 24.54 54.18% -0.267 0.0209 -0.207
Power Corrodes the Spirit 7411 30.65 54.12% 0.119 0.3181 -0.265
Promising Farmlands 13232 29.22 53.98% -0.068 0.4006 -0.441
Shattered Fragments of Power 1439 32.1 52.26% 0.028 0.2422 -0.131
Slow Dissolution of Will 1350 28.51 44.74% -0.612 -0.0758 -0.493
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2182 35.97 81.71% 0.964 0.4243 0.85
The Border of Life and Death 397 29.96 63.98% 0.244 -0.0381 0.146
Thriving Communities 7383 30.24 54.04% -0.174 0.1961 -0.151
Thriving Crops 676 30.17 56.51% 0.875 0.6583 -0.159
Tipping Point 3800 29.22 51.76% -0.354
Unnatural Proliferation 7983 32.57 56.77% -0.148 0.0647 -0.185
Untended Land Crumbles 7655 29.52 51.43% -0.184 0.1313 -0.406

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 155360 44.26% 28.24 67.95% -0.09 0.879 -0.026
B 157777 44.37% 28.44 68.14% 0.008 0.8748 -0.004
C 158028 44.34% 28.58 68.2% -0.031 0.7305 0.021
D 151657 44.24% 28.0 67.97% -0.044 0.8466 -0.048
E 65292 45.65% 30.75 67.31% 0.04 0.7727 -0.081
F 84604 44.26% 30.67 69.76% 0.024 0.8483 0.066
G 79651 44.29% 30.56 69.6% 0.047 0.9066 0.075
H 80332 43.97% 30.51 69.44% 0.024 0.8276 -0.019

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 30575 0.0% 12.93 50.25% -1.054 -0.2747 -0.461
Not Using Events or Tokens 91968 40.8% 19.2 62.42% -0.406 0.0416 -0.829
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10537 17.59% 30.26 83.92% 0.854 0.3876 1.23
Start of Game Growth 15583 20.48% 29.42 82.32% 0.262 -0.2736 0.271
Unlimited Undo 44281 37.07% 30.13 75.1% 0.323 0.2272 0.305
Using Tokens but Not Events 39072 31.66% 27.47 77.85% 0.208 0.0804 -0.427

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 86044 14.49 10.55%
II 154319 30.34 66.63%
III 156060 34.85 88.14%
IV 69932 38.6 99.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 9074
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 135219
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 98747
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 69295
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 43950
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3917
Lose: Adversary condition 30180
Win: Sacrifice victory 987
Lose: Scenario condition 2188
Win: Scenario condition 5799
Lose: Blight pool ran out 62974
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4025

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-12 03:21:33 (Pacific Time)