Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2171 40.31% 29.09 0.026 85.49% -0.597 -0.0297
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1663 48.35% 32.4 0.395 82.68% -0.41 0.2786
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2132 60.82% 36.36 4.321 70.87% -0.315 0.7311
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2543 67.97% 36.34 2.048 62.13% -1.32 0.0683
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1687 83.05% 38.85 3.058 52.1% -1.576 0.1274
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 779 88.58% 36.49 2.851 37.87% -1.721 -0.1221
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2932 86.56% 39.97 6.055 38.68% -1.572 0.6191
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11303 32.63% 25.26 -2.796 88.11% -0.413 -0.1248
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8129 36.93% 30.18 -0.022 89.01% 0.312 0.0948
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 10601 43.9% 38.32 4.189 87.5% 0.219 0.4321
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 10441 47.23% 44.71 7.042 85.25% 0.023 0.5199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7791 48.29% 47.17 9.087 83.39% -0.05 0.4873
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4423 55.85% 51.86 12.21 74.95% -0.274 0.9048
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9012 65.17% 50.5 8.75 63.62% -1.288 0.2844
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9024 32.93% 24.73 -2.511 83.68% -0.416 -0.001
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4989 40.81% 32.13 0.9 78.95% -0.621 0.0926
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6808 55.23% 31.92 1.524 67.73% -0.931 0.0981
The Kingdom of England 3 6 7203 63.41% 34.63 2.82 54.03% -1.587 0.0711
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7719 54.93% 42.2 5.904 61.43% -1.544 0.0746
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2246 72.24% 39.71 7.619 39.76% -1.617 0.4378
The Kingdom of England 6 11 8999 68.35% 43.66 6.584 40.89% -2.127 0.2781
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 5579 39.65% 29.37 -1.204 83.42% -0.428 0.3743
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3247 59.47% 29.65 0.478 71.02% -0.408 0.4652
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6537 47.72% 34.51 3.115 55.29% -1.337 0.934
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5841 60.75% 38.66 4.07 49.92% -1.948 0.3839
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4151 57.92% 43.07 5.143 52.11% -2.095 0.3115
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1941 64.38% 48.6 10.013 55.02% -1.289 0.5738
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9476 64.74% 51.99 7.22 53.5% -2.34 -0.0256
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 214 29.44% 27.68 -2.473 87.85% 0.03 -0.1213
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 169 39.64% 32.56 0.07 80.47% -0.589 0.2972
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 231 42.42% 36.48 1.732 81.82% -0.712 0.2633
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 349 42.69% 44.13 6.268 80.23% -0.616 0.1033
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 272 51.1% 43.53 5.532 70.59% -1.237 0.0552
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 198 71.72% 45.46 6.63 64.14% -1.255 0.14
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 697 70.83% 49.38 7.542 53.66% -1.732 -0.0921
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6696 34.98% 24.25 -2.372 85.53% 0.044 0.1762
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4167 37.61% 29.68 -0.392 86.99% 0.035 -0.0048
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5498 44.79% 32.43 0.73 84.74% -0.649 -0.1697
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5960 54.69% 40.17 4.678 82.11% -0.168 0.105
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3858 67.39% 39.73 5.507 73.04% -0.228 0.6098
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1948 70.36% 40.51 8.723 64.53% -0.003 0.8705
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8013 69.04% 44.91 6.367 66.34% -1.003 0.2162
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1702 33.25% 27.15 -1.153 89.54% 0.56 0.4256
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1113 51.22% 31.25 -0.086 76.82% -0.681 0.0971
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1424 47.61% 38.14 3.766 85.67% -0.111 0.3664
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1701 66.41% 40.41 3.049 67.84% -1.18 -0.0021
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1273 67.95% 43.82 6.752 65.91% -0.958 0.3781
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 834 85.25% 39.01 4.232 34.77% -2.068 -0.2183
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2410 83.86% 47.78 6.976 38.88% -2.006 -0.0962

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 97 29.9% 28.47 92.78% 0.786 0.8942 0.251
Blitz 0 2620 45.04% 29.22 72.02% -0.027 0.2396 -0.194
Dahan Insurrection 4 3265 27.9% 52.65 81.29% 0.774 1.1065 0.604
Despicable Theft 2 312 47.12% 34.1 70.51% -0.399 -0.1485 -1.089
Elemental Invocation 1 490 55.71% 30.84 65.92% -0.469 0.1797 -0.762
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7540 7.98% 42.16 83.09% -0.137 0.029 0.28
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1189 58.61% 31.86 69.72% -0.488 -0.1622 -0.788
Rituals of Terror 3 1142 48.27% 39.62 73.73% -0.858 -0.9679 -0.179
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 652 74.07% 34.65 66.87% -0.076 0.5805 -0.79
Second Wave 0 8575 46.61% 30.45 76.08% -0.467 0.0039 -0.309
Varied Terrains 2 87 55.17% 36.43 77.01% -0.328 0.2076 -0.262
Ward the Shores 2 1213 48.88% 34.31 63.81% -0.822 0.3653 -0.52

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 10138 32.47 58.28% -1.683 0.1484 -0.698
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10639 33.82 60.43% -1.352 0.3019 -0.659
All Things Weaken 4820 32.38 56.08% -1.852 0.124 -0.82
Back Against the Wall 10508 32.3 54.8% -2.084 -0.2254 -0.888
Disintegrating Ecosystem 9585 29.63 53.6% -1.768 0.2065 -0.985
Downward Spiral 21804 26.31 60.8% -1.978 -0.0763 -0.744
Erosion of Will 9934 31.07 54.49% -1.855 0.1888 -1.017
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2132 37.92 80.44% -0.868 -0.2959 -0.113
Memory Fades to Dust 21910 25.77 56.96% -1.868 0.1112 -0.842
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4794 31.65 55.26% -1.909 -0.0174 -0.923
Promising Farmlands 10195 29.74 54.97% -1.667 0.3713 -1.059
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1401 37.42 86.44% -0.234 0.2063 0.326
Thriving Communities 4638 31.43 55.82% -1.905 0.0588 -0.805
Tipping Point 3799 29.22 51.78% -0.983
Unnatural Proliferation 5260 33.3 57.59% -1.711 0.1949 -0.91
Untended Land Crumbles 4876 30.74 53.59% -2.217 -0.1823 -1.013

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 106708 46.76% 31.05 74.91% -0.018 0.75 -0.026
B 109193 46.81% 31.15 74.9% 0.035 0.7275 -0.026
C 108781 46.71% 31.29 75.05% 0.037 0.6016 0.012
D 104877 46.62% 30.8 75.11% -0.011 0.7574 -0.026
E 35781 49.71% 34.15 74.15% -0.003 0.596 -0.084
F 52880 46.57% 33.63 76.68% 0.061 0.7709 0.055
G 50160 46.74% 33.5 76.29% -0.059 0.6674 0.079
H 50649 46.45% 33.4 76.17% -0.023 0.667 0.002

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 18427 0.0% 16.72 65.28% -2.1 -0.0891 -1.653
Not Using Events or Tokens 59666 44.22% 22.84 74.49% -0.227 -0.0125 -0.684
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7240 15.81% 31.36 90.95% 0.075 -0.0188 -0.339
Start of Game Growth 10327 20.56% 31.07 88.99% 0.557 -0.1507 0.2
Unlimited Undo 29107 38.75% 33.07 82.21% 0.429 -0.2706 0.45
Using Tokens but Not Events 26776 32.46% 29.77 83.59% -0.244 -0.2894 -0.395

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35599 22.6 20.5%
II 110717 31.02 68.68%
III 112328 34.59 88.18%
IV 50863 37.83 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7295
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 97167
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 72785
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 50380
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2825
Lose: Adversary condition 21892
Win: Sacrifice victory 714
Lose: Scenario condition 1747
Win: Scenario condition 4702
Lose: Blight pool ran out 46985
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3015

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)