Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1467 39.34% 28.42 -0.856 87.66% 0.008 0.2916
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1164 47.08% 32.37 1.187 85.4% -0.05 0.3603
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1542 60.87% 35.51 2.765 69.2% -0.95 -0.0737
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1806 67.13% 36.16 3.205 62.62% -1.205 0.041
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1282 82.84% 38.55 4.721 51.48% -1.4 0.1022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 542 88.01% 35.7 3.333 36.16% -2.013 -0.0592
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2070 85.7% 39.75 5.341 38.94% -1.942 0.1011
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9510 31.56% 25.2 -2.113 88.63% 0.131 0.1727
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6419 36.79% 30.03 0.444 89.42% 0.37 0.3511
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 8331 44.18% 38.05 4.492 87.46% 0.216 0.2292
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8414 47.51% 44.5 7.623 84.92% -0.011 0.2772
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6070 49.21% 46.9 8.825 82.64% -0.189 0.1781
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3818 54.84% 51.93 11.385 74.88% -0.636 0.1908
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7229 62.83% 51.25 10.93 65.51% -1.104 0.1345
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7605 32.16% 24.54 -2.454 84.02% -0.303 0.0284
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3948 41.12% 31.78 1.334 78.6% -0.541 -0.0273
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5367 55.18% 31.68 1.337 67.58% -1.01 -0.0426
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5869 63.19% 34.39 2.708 53.35% -1.634 -0.0553
The Kingdom of England 4 7 5885 57.19% 41.32 5.842 59.76% -1.477 0.0216
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1867 71.96% 39.66 5.126 39.53% -2.255 -0.1816
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7286 67.63% 43.42 7.017 40.78% -2.28 -0.0322
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4725 38.82% 29.3 -0.64 83.7% -0.27 0.2435
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2564 60.08% 29.29 -0.187 70.79% -0.733 0.1667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5259 47.58% 33.9 1.965 54.21% -1.934 0.209
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4868 60.64% 38.38 4.387 49.51% -1.919 0.2776
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3405 58.16% 42.93 6.614 52.07% -1.876 0.2824
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1590 65.14% 48.14 9.122 54.65% -1.627 0.1901
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7553 63.83% 52.46 11.279 55.25% -1.639 0.4576
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5700 33.32% 24.23 -2.695 86.74% -0.005 0.0798
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3268 36.94% 29.47 0.059 87.55% 0.193 0.2262
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4311 44.18% 32.13 1.396 85.18% 0.029 0.2638
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4854 54.33% 40.04 5.35 81.97% -0.105 0.1822
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3216 67.31% 39.55 5.231 72.76% -0.511 0.2725
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1563 72.29% 39.65 5.332 62.32% -0.973 0.1937
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6385 67.73% 44.86 7.629 67.2% -0.877 0.2476
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1016 31.23% 25.53 -2.621 91.34% 0.212 0.1101
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 693 49.2% 30.76 0.054 77.49% -0.691 0.0881
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 925 46.27% 37.95 3.661 87.14% -0.036 0.3833
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1188 66.58% 39.77 4.772 66.84% -1.045 0.2083
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 914 66.96% 43.7 6.714 66.3% -1.064 0.0528
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 621 85.19% 38.5 4.29 33.66% -2.278 -0.2788
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1592 82.1% 48.16 8.778 39.95% -2.072 -0.1935

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2755 45.15% 29.88 -1.095 72.41% -0.472 0.0976
Dahan Insurrection 4 3865 27.9% 52.09 10.08 81.63% -0.114 0.2838
Despicable Theft 2 141 48.23% 34.1 1.361 75.18% -0.432 -0.1622
Elemental Invocation 1 309 55.99% 30.6 -0.776 66.99% -0.586 -0.1218
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8736 8.39% 40.96 3.95 82.8% -0.599 -0.2323
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1359 59.36% 31.72 0.434 70.49% -0.334 0.1114
Rituals of Terror 3 1299 48.75% 39.29 4.741 73.21% -0.314 0.3307
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 749 74.6% 34.67 2.418 66.36% -0.431 0.214
Second Wave 0 9068 47.61% 30.76 -0.199 75.35% -0.521 -0.0919
Ward the Shores 2 1351 49.81% 33.57 1.032 62.99% -1.037 -0.0032

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 8139 32.09 -1.495 57.43% -1.893 0.18
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8555 33.58 -0.756 60.02% -1.784 0.1339
All Things Weaken 3268 32.18 -1.533 55.91% -1.948 0.2225
Back Against the Wall 8512 32.12 -1.504 54.88% -2.004 0.0878
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7673 29.28 -2.974 52.73% -2.085 0.14
Downward Spiral 18074 26.2 -2.888 61.39% -1.9 0.1225
Erosion of Will 8008 30.97 -2.115 54.21% -2.048 0.161
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1456 37.53 1.148 80.98% -0.71 -0.0232
Memory Fades to Dust 18126 25.54 -3.232 57.11% -2.108 0.1111
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3185 31.74 -1.811 56.26% -1.911 0.1127
Promising Farmlands 8270 29.43 -2.758 54.74% -2.028 0.1857
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 897 37.21 1.259 85.95% -0.352 0.0575
Thriving Communities 3077 31.26 -2.048 55.48% -1.946 0.1491
Tipping Point 3798 29.23 -2.857 51.79% -2.16 0.0667
Unnatural Proliferation 3530 33.23 -0.978 58.3% -1.831 0.256
Untended Land Crumbles 3212 30.97 -2.169 54.08% -2.0 0.1053

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 88165 46.54% 30.81 -0.261 74.91% -0.035 -0.7957
B 90281 46.5% 30.94 -0.184 74.89% -0.027 -0.8843
C 89691 46.26% 31.11 -0.055 75.16% 0.011 -1.0777
D 87135 46.26% 30.69 -0.248 75.25% -0.007 -0.8569
E 23797 50.02% 33.93 0.3 73.87% -0.024 -0.9894
F 39599 45.99% 33.63 0.427 76.73% 0.067 -0.8469
G 37865 46.56% 33.54 0.397 76.28% 0.033 -0.8729
H 38055 45.81% 33.36 0.284 76.32% 0.004 -0.9106

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 15559 0.0% 16.75 -5.489 65.34% -2.268 -0.212
Not Using Events or Tokens 49684 44.5% 22.73 -3.243 74.62% -0.198 0.0176
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6053 15.73% 30.81 1.229 90.88% 0.742 0.0553
Start of Game Growth 8479 20.25% 30.52 0.582 88.69% 0.389 -0.0815
Unlimited Undo 23622 38.77% 32.79 0.749 81.85% 0.331 -0.0893
Using Tokens but Not Events 21702 32.23% 29.86 -1.047 83.86% 0.092 0.04

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28510 22.35 21.03%
II 89345 30.84 69.02%
III 89233 34.35 88.08%
IV 40206 37.52 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4347
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 60960
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 43932
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 31542
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2280
Lose: Adversary condition 17234
Win: Sacrifice victory 533
Lose: Scenario condition 1516
Win: Scenario condition 4004
Lose: Blight pool ran out 37575
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2428

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)