Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
48	27.08%	41.4	62.5%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	23	30.43%	58.35	73.91%			0.002
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7	42.86%	26.0	42.86%	-0.127	0.1134	-0.248
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence	1	0.0%	77.0	100.0%	0.323	-0.6779	0.119
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	7	42.86%	21.14	42.86%	-0.168	-0.3953	-0.248
Downpour Drenches the World	8	12.5%	61.38	62.5%			0.056
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.105	-0.6044
Eyes Watch From the Trees	10	40.0%	35.9	50.0%	-0.191	-0.6517	-0.182
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	5	40.0%	24.2	40.0%	-0.127	-0.5568	-0.248
Finder of Paths Unseen	12	25.0%	59.83	58.33%			0.009
Fractured Days Split the Sky	17	17.65%	63.12	82.35%	0.238	0.8352	0.424
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	17.33	0.0%			-0.248
Heart of the Wildfire	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%			0.114
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	10	20.0%	30.1	60.0%	0.377	-0.1178	0.119
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%			0.166
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	3	0.0%	24.33	66.67%	0.159	-0.3779	0.203
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	3	33.33%	17.0	33.33%	-0.063	-0.3544
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%			-0.154
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	5	0.0%	30.8	80.0%
Many Minds Move as One	13	23.08%	49.62	69.23%	-0.254	-0.4106	0.153
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	19	36.84%	33.32	73.68%	0.054	0.0647	-0.04
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	3	33.33%	22.33	66.67%	-0.105	-0.2509
River Surges in Sunlight	10	30.0%	32.8	80.0%			-0.291
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	3	33.33%	33.33	66.67%	-0.105	0.1549
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.068
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	15	33.33%	53.47	73.33%	0.355	0.1806	0.421
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	5	40.0%	34.4	60.0%			-0.239
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	4	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.213	-0.5351
Shifting Memory of Ages	7	28.57%	60.43	85.71%	0.159	0.4243	0.369
Shroud of Silent Mist	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.168	0.1991
Starlight Seeks its Form	18	27.78%	61.67	77.78%	0.323	0.0955	-0.142
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	16	31.25%	48.44	81.25%	0.159	-0.1973	0.315
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	9	33.33%	23.22	66.67%	-0.105	0.028
Thunderspeaker	5	40.0%	48.2	40.0%	-0.105	-0.0759	-0.182
Thunderspeaker — Tactician	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.063	0.1762
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	2	0.0%	16.5	50.0%	-0.085	0.1055
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%			-0.248
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.25
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	6	0.0%	13.67	16.67%	-0.19	0.538	-0.405
Volcano Looming High	6	16.67%	10.33	33.33%	-0.085	-0.066
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium	3	0.0%	25.67	33.33%	0.091	-0.5029	0.119

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	1	0.0%	77.0	10.338	100.0%	0.323	0.5389
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0		33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	0.0	-1.948	0.0%	-0.085	0.7217
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	6	16.67%	80.17		83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	0.0%	49.33	33.33%	-0.127	-0.9013	0.163
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%			-0.431

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%	0.166
All Things Weaken	3	51.67	33.33%	-0.045
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%	0.313
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%	-0.495

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	42	28.57%	39.33	66.67%	0.101	1.0954	0.244
B	39	23.08%	37.85	58.97%	0.081	0.9996	-0.297
C	41	24.39%	37.83	58.54%	-0.004	0.7389	0.005
D	44	27.27%	37.02	59.09%	-0.004	0.9479	0.005
E	42	26.19%	41.52	64.29%	0.165	0.9453	-0.066
F	43	25.58%	35.72	58.14%	-0.327	0.5656	-0.114
G	37	29.73%	34.84	59.46%	-0.004	0.8517	0.071
H	36	25.0%	37.11	63.89%	-0.035	0.8129	0.187

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	6	16.67%	80.17	83.33%			-0.013
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%			0.135

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	18	17.67	11.11%
II	12	30.7	100.0%
III	12	34.75	83.33%
IV	6	38.22	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	12
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	14
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.