Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
39	33.33%	45.62	69.23%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	22	31.82%	56.68	72.73%	0.123	-0.0252	0.054
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6	50.0%	30.33	50.0%	-0.161	-0.0299	-0.22
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	5	60.0%	29.6	60.0%	-0.067	-0.2117	-0.22
Downpour Drenches the World	8	12.5%	61.38	62.5%	0.101	0.2801	0.229
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	2	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.148	-0.9131
Eyes Watch From the Trees	8	50.0%	44.88	62.5%	-0.099	-0.6879	-0.159
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	4	50.0%	30.25	50.0%	-0.087	-0.5839	-0.22
Finder of Paths Unseen	11	27.27%	56.64	54.55%	0.347	1.0113	0.05
Fractured Days Split the Sky	14	21.43%	64.36	85.71%	0.518	1.1035	0.338
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	17.33	0.0%	-0.182	-0.2772	-0.22
Heart of the Wildfire	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.288	-0.0468	0.13
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	6	33.33%	31.33	66.67%	-0.094	-0.5355
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%			0.186
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%	0.35	-0.1371	0.228
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	25.5	50.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%			-0.141
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	5	0.0%	30.8	80.0%	-0.081	-0.2133
Many Minds Move as One	9	33.33%	61.11	88.89%	0.277	0.0561	0.166
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	16	43.75%	37.31	81.25%	-0.11	-0.152	-0.011
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	10	30.0%	32.8	80.0%	-0.11	-0.0395	-0.26
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	50.0%	50.0	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.09
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	11	45.45%	62.64	81.82%	0.254	0.017	0.386
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	5	40.0%	34.4	60.0%	-0.11	-0.2996	-0.203
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	2	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.18	-0.5613
Shifting Memory of Ages	5	40.0%	77.4	100.0%	0.35	0.703	0.415
Shroud of Silent Mist	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.094	0.1566
Starlight Seeks its Form	16	31.25%	58.63	75.0%	0.101	-0.1601	-0.239
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	13	38.46%	49.54	84.62%	0.147	-0.3297	0.171
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	8	37.5%	26.13	75.0%	-0.166	-0.1033
Thunderspeaker	4	50.0%	60.25	50.0%	-0.095	-0.1293	-0.159
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%	-0.081	0.4436	-0.22
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.249
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	4	0.0%	20.5	25.0%	-0.186	0.5897	-0.39
Volcano Looming High	5	20.0%	12.4	40.0%	-0.264	-0.3067

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0	7.135	33.33%	0.35	2.3916
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	5	20.0%	77.2	5.588	80.0%	0.277	1.5532
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	0.35	-0.2949	0.217
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%			-0.378

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%			0.186
All Things Weaken	3	51.67	33.33%	0.324	0.7163	0.029
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%			0.324
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%			-0.483

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	34	35.29%	42.47	73.53%	0.171	0.9108	0.209
B	31	29.03%	40.9	64.52%	-0.384	0.342	-0.356
C	32	31.25%	41.97	65.63%	0.104	0.6863	0.005
D	35	34.29%	40.6	65.71%	-0.006	0.7057	0.005
E	35	31.43%	43.89	68.57%	0.088	0.6533	-0.072
F	35	31.43%	40.14	65.71%	-0.006	0.6647	0.005
G	29	37.93%	40.55	68.97%	-0.088	0.5632	0.077
H	30	30.0%	38.8	70.0%	0.082	0.6521	0.164

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	5	20.0%	77.2	80.0%	0.277	0.2708	-0.02
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%	0.35	0.3394	0.199

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	12	20.4	16.67%
II	11	31.01	100.0%
III	11	34.76	81.82%
IV	5	38.07	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	9
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	11
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	5
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	8
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.