Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
55	25.93%	36.27	54.55%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	23	30.43%	58.35	73.91%	0.036
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7	42.86%	26.0	42.86%	-0.224
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence	2	0.0%	38.5	50.0%	0.097
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	9	37.5%	16.44	33.33%	-0.405
Downpour Drenches the World	10	10.0%	49.1	50.0%	0.05
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	4	25.0%	2.0	0.0%
Eyes Watch From the Trees	10	40.0%	35.9	50.0%	-0.155
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	7	33.33%	17.29	28.57%	-0.405
Finder of Paths Unseen	12	25.0%	59.83	58.33%	0.068
Fractured Days Split the Sky	20	15.0%	53.65	70.0%	0.428
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	17.33	0.0%	-0.224
Heart of the Wildfire	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	0.107
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	10	20.0%	30.1	60.0%	0.249
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%	0.178
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	5	20.0%	16.2	40.0%	0.226
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	3	33.33%	17.0	33.33%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%	-0.039
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	7	16.67%	23.14	57.14%	-0.181
Many Minds Move as One	14	21.43%	46.07	64.29%	0.176
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	24	34.78%	26.71	58.33%	-0.113
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	5	25.0%	13.4	40.0%	-0.181
River Surges in Sunlight	12	25.0%	27.33	66.67%	-0.17
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	3	33.33%	33.33	66.67%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%	0.082
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	17	29.41%	47.18	64.71%	0.452
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	0.0%	19.5	50.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	2	0.0%	19.5	50.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	6	33.33%	28.67	50.0%	-0.252
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	4	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	8	28.57%	52.88	75.0%	0.223
Shifting Memory of Ages — Mentor	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	19	26.32%	58.42	73.68%	-0.13
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	16	31.25%	48.44	81.25%	0.312
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	10	40.0%	21.7	60.0%
Thunderspeaker	5	40.0%	48.2	40.0%	-0.155
Thunderspeaker — Tactician	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	4	0.0%	8.25	25.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%	-0.224
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	2	0.0%	52.5	50.0%	0.238
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	6	0.0%	13.67	16.67%	-0.43
Volcano Looming High	6	16.67%	10.33	33.33%	0.152
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium	5	20.0%	17.0	20.0%	0.249

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	1	0.0%	77.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0	33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	6	16.67%	80.17	83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0	0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	0	1	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	5	75.0%	98.4	60.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%
Blitz	0	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.181
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	0.0%	49.33	33.33%	0.141
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%	-0.38

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%	0.178
All Things Weaken	3	51.67	33.33%	-0.018
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%	0.152
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	8.0	0.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%	0.325
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%	-0.481

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	49	27.08%	33.88	57.14%	0.258
B	45	22.73%	32.98	51.11%	-0.437
C	47	23.91%	33.17	51.06%	0.006
D	51	26.0%	32.1	50.98%	0.006
E	49	25.0%	35.76	55.1%	-0.075
F	50	24.49%	30.88	50.0%	-0.091
G	43	28.57%	30.16	51.16%	0.032
H	39	23.08%	34.26	58.97%	0.342

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.181
Skip Initial Invader Actions	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.181
Start of Game Growth	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.181
Unlimited Undo	7	16.67%	68.71	71.43%	-0.183
Using Tokens but Not Events	10	33.33%	40.1	70.0%	-0.003

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	25	15.74	8.0%
II	12	30.48	100.0%
III	12	34.79	83.33%
IV	6	38.41	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	12
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	20
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.