Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
20	40.0%	57.2	85.0%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	13	38.46%	67.15	84.62%	0.177
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%	-0.182
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	3	66.67%	39.67	66.67%	-0.182
Downpour Drenches the World	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%	0.287
Eyes Watch From the Trees	4	50.0%	69.25	75.0%	-0.04
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%	-0.182
Finder of Paths Unseen	2	100.0%	100.0	50.0%	-0.04
Fractured Days Split the Sky	7	28.57%	68.29	100.0%
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%	-0.182
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	2	0.0%	38.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike	1	100.0%	30.0	100.0%	0.246
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%	-0.028
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	2	0.0%	37.0	100.0%
Many Minds Move as One	2	50.0%	32.0	100.0%	0.246
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	9	33.33%	42.78	88.89%	-0.028
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	7	28.57%	36.71	85.71%	-0.315
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%	0.247
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	8	50.0%	77.75	87.5%	0.206
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	1	0.0%	43.0	0.0%	-0.069
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	50.0%	87.5	100.0%	0.246
Starlight Seeks its Form	8	50.0%	64.38	87.5%	-0.182
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	40.0%	55.3	100.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	34.83	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	2	100.0%	100.0	50.0%	-0.04
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	3	33.33%	41.0	66.67%	-0.182
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%	0.287
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	0.0%	41.0	50.0%	-0.315
Volcano Looming High	2	50.0%	31.0	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0	33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0	0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0	75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	-0.028
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%	-0.222

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%	0.246
All Things Weaken	1	52.0	0.0%	-0.182
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%	0.381
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	52.0	0.0%	-0.421

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	17	41.18%	47.59	88.24%	0.064
B	15	33.33%	50.73	80.0%	-0.005
C	14	35.71%	50.57	78.57%	-0.005
D	16	43.75%	49.13	81.25%	-0.005
E	18	38.89%	53.44	83.33%	-0.005
F	17	35.29%	47.71	82.35%	-0.005
G	16	43.75%	50.13	87.5%	-0.109
H	14	35.71%	41.43	85.71%	0.035

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Using Tokens but Not Events	7	42.86%	52.0	85.71%			-0.04

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.62	50.0%
II	7	31.05	100.0%
III	7	34.62	85.71%
IV	2	37.86	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	2
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.