Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
32	37.5%	46.53	75.0%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	19	36.84%	55.16	73.68%	-0.092	-0.2508	0.24
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5	60.0%	36.4	60.0%	-0.017	0.1047	-0.235
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4	75.0%	37.0	75.0%	0.194	0.0263	-0.235
Downpour Drenches the World	2	0.0%	100.5	100.0%			0.314
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.163	-0.8848
Eyes Watch From the Trees	7	57.14%	51.29	71.43%	0.406	-0.1831	-0.179
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	4	50.0%	30.25	50.0%	-0.006	-0.4777	-0.235
Finder of Paths Unseen	6	33.33%	55.5	50.0%	-0.092	0.6026	0.132
Fractured Days Split the Sky	9	22.22%	67.89	100.0%	0.32	1.0047	0.446
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	17.33	0.0%	-0.356	-0.4572	-0.235
Heart of the Wildfire	2	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.367	-0.1225	0.134
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	6	33.33%	31.33	66.67%	-0.211	-0.6611
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%	0.212	0.415	0.165
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%	0.32	-0.3766	0.201
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	25.5	50.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%			-0.191
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	5	0.0%	30.8	80.0%	0.048	-0.0969
Many Minds Move as One	5	40.0%	52.0	100.0%			0.276
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	15	46.67%	39.8	86.67%	0.406	0.3965	-0.057
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	9	33.33%	36.44	88.89%	0.212	0.2142	-0.26
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	50.0%	50.0	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.024
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	11	45.45%	62.64	81.82%	0.165	-0.0487	0.321
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	50.0%	43.0	75.0%	0.194	0.0658	-0.229
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.163	-0.5263
Shifting Memory of Ages	5	40.0%	77.4	100.0%	0.32	0.7274	0.366
Shroud of Silent Mist	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.211	0.1036
Starlight Seeks its Form	12	33.33%	54.0	75.0%	-0.319	-0.5917	-0.124
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	12	33.33%	46.08	83.33%	-0.319	-0.8138
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	34.83	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	4	50.0%	60.25	50.0%	0.056	0.0371	-0.179
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%	-0.163	0.3893	-0.235
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.203
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	3	0.0%	27.33	33.33%	-0.201	0.696	-0.394
Volcano Looming High	3	33.33%	20.67	66.67%	-0.201	-0.1906

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0	6.374	33.33%	0.32	2.3393
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	0.32	-0.2862	0.144
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%			-0.414

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%			0.165
All Things Weaken	2	32.0	0.0%	0.118	0.5785	-0.157
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%			0.314
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%	0.194	0.6754
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%			-0.493

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	27	40.74%	42.74	81.48%	0.314	1.1541	0.235
B	26	34.62%	41.12	69.23%	-0.114	0.6647	-0.189
C	26	34.62%	40.5	69.23%	-0.005	0.6493	0.006
D	28	39.29%	40.39	71.43%	-0.005	0.7946	0.006
E	28	35.71%	44.5	75.0%	0.089	0.7175	-0.072
F	28	35.71%	39.82	71.43%	-0.216	0.5032	0.006
G	25	40.0%	39.4	72.0%	-0.292	0.4498	-0.137
H	23	34.78%	38.0	78.26%	0.196	0.844	0.185

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	1	0.0%	96.0	100.0%			0.111
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%	0.32	0.2664	0.156

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	8	21.03	25.0%
II	9	31.04	100.0%
III	10	34.74	80.0%
IV	5	38.02	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	8
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	9
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	5
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	4
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.