Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
49	26.53%	40.55	61.22%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	23	30.43%	58.35	73.91%			-0.076
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	7	42.86%	26.0	42.86%			-0.261
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares — Violence	1	0.0%	77.0	100.0%	0.261	-0.7516	0.094
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	7	42.86%	21.14	42.86%	-0.311	-0.5233	-0.261
Downpour Drenches the World	8	12.5%	61.38	62.5%			0.026
Ember-Eyed Behemoth	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.175	-0.7379
Eyes Watch From the Trees	10	40.0%	35.9	50.0%	-0.136	-0.615	-0.189
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	5	40.0%	24.2	40.0%			-0.261
Finder of Paths Unseen	12	25.0%	59.83	58.33%			-0.004
Fractured Days Split the Sky	18	16.67%	59.61	77.78%	0.028	0.6906	0.377
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	17.33	0.0%			-0.261
Heart of the Wildfire	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%			0.097
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	10	20.0%	30.1	60.0%	0.538	0.1114	0.226
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%			0.163
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	3	0.0%	24.33	66.67%	0.042	-0.574	0.207
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	3	33.33%	17.0	33.33%	-0.136	-0.4215
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%	0.235	0.133	-0.084
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	5	0.0%	30.8	80.0%
Many Minds Move as One	13	23.08%	49.62	69.23%	-0.136	-0.297	0.141
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	20	35.0%	31.65	70.0%	-0.131	-0.0967	0.013
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	3	33.33%	22.33	66.67%
River Surges in Sunlight	10	30.0%	32.8	80.0%	0.235	0.2627	-0.217
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	3	33.33%	33.33	66.67%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.04
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	16	31.25%	50.13	68.75%	0.07	-0.0402	0.372
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	0.0%	19.5	50.0%	-0.233	0.3429
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	5	40.0%	34.4	60.0%			-0.282
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained	4	0.0%	0.0	0.0%
Shifting Memory of Ages	7	28.57%	60.43	85.71%	0.042	0.3229	0.37
Shroud of Silent Mist	3	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.136	0.1372
Starlight Seeks its Form	19	26.32%	58.42	73.68%	0.028	-0.1916	-0.189
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	16	31.25%	48.44	81.25%	0.042	-0.4052	0.299
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	9	33.33%	23.22	66.67%	-0.175	-0.0535
Thunderspeaker	5	40.0%	48.2	40.0%			-0.189
Thunderspeaker — Tactician	1	0.0%	0.0	0.0%	-0.136	0.0687
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	3	0.0%	11.0	33.33%	-0.233	-0.0582
Vital Strength of the Earth	6	50.0%	27.5	50.0%			-0.261
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.229
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	6	0.0%	13.67	16.67%	-0.175	0.5822	-0.445
Volcano Looming High	6	16.67%	10.33	33.33%	0.235	0.2088	0.132
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium	3	0.0%	25.67	33.33%	0.321	-0.2129	0.226

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	1	0.0%	77.0	9.769	100.0%	0.261	0.5486
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0		33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	0.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	6	16.67%	80.17	7.571	83.33%	0.235	1.2557
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	0.0%	49.33	33.33%	0.089
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%	-0.451

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%			0.163
All Things Weaken	3	51.67	33.33%			-0.07
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%	0.235	0.265	0.132
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%			0.309
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%			-0.499

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	43	27.91%	38.42	65.12%	0.17	1.3122	0.287
B	39	23.08%	37.85	58.97%	-0.008	1.0468	-0.392
C	42	23.81%	36.93	57.14%	-0.006	0.8824	0.005
D	45	26.67%	36.2	57.78%	-0.006	1.0485	0.005
E	43	25.58%	40.56	62.79%	0.13	1.0343	-0.069
F	44	25.0%	34.91	56.82%	-0.267	0.7376	-0.089
G	38	28.95%	33.92	57.89%	-0.006	0.9625	0.094
H	37	24.32%	36.11	62.16%	-0.047	0.9453	0.194

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	6	16.67%	80.17	83.33%			-0.022
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%			0.115

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	19	16.77	10.53%
II	12	30.59	100.0%
III	12	34.74	83.33%
IV	6	38.3	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	12
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6
Game abandoned (v.3.0+)	15
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.