Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
28	42.86%	53.18	85.71%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	17	41.18%	61.65	82.35%	-0.307	-0.4862	0.238
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	4	75.0%	45.5	75.0%	0.134	0.1479	-0.232
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	4	75.0%	37.0	75.0%	0.075	-0.1707	-0.232
Downpour Drenches the World	2	0.0%	100.5	100.0%			0.336
Eyes Watch From the Trees	7	57.14%	51.29	71.43%	-0.229	-0.7019	-0.156
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3	66.67%	40.33	66.67%	0.075	-0.372	-0.232
Finder of Paths Unseen	4	50.0%	83.25	75.0%	0.082	0.4451	0.08
Fractured Days Split the Sky	9	22.22%	67.89	100.0%	0.082	0.1853	0.394
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%			-0.232
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	5	40.0%	37.6	80.0%	-0.236	-0.8189
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	33.67	100.0%	0.085	0.353	0.178
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%	0.082	-0.7326	0.111
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	25.5	50.0%	-0.389	-0.9309
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%			-0.179
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	4	0.0%	38.5	100.0%	0.179	0.0579
Many Minds Move as One	5	40.0%	52.0	100.0%	0.153	-0.4703	0.303
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	15	46.67%	39.8	86.67%	-0.076	-0.2034	-0.021
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	9	33.33%	36.44	88.89%	0.085	-0.1068	-0.233
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	2	50.0%	50.0	100.0%	0.153	0.4403
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.056
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	10	50.0%	68.9	90.0%	0.082	-0.0918	0.292
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	4	50.0%	43.0	75.0%	0.227	0.0275	-0.213
Shifting Memory of Ages	5	40.0%	77.4	100.0%	0.082	0.3106	0.289
Starlight Seeks its Form	10	40.0%	64.8	90.0%			-0.108
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	40.0%	55.3	100.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	34.83	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	3	66.67%	80.33	66.67%	0.085	0.0087	-0.156
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	5	60.0%	33.0	60.0%	-0.389	0.3647	-0.232
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.212
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	0.0%	41.0	50.0%			-0.391
Volcano Looming High	2	50.0%	31.0	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	61.0	3.975	100.0%	0.059	0.168
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0	3.427	33.33%	0.082	2.3924
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	0.0%	96.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%	-0.389	-0.8354
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	0.082	0.1227	0.09
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%			-0.388

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%			0.178
All Things Weaken	2	32.0	0.0%	-0.307	1.5708	-0.121
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%			0.325
Memory Fades to Dust	1	29.0	100.0%	0.075	1.9508
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	56.5	50.0%	0.059	1.8731	-0.481

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	25	44.0%	46.16	88.0%	0.006	0.783	0.218
B	22	40.91%	48.59	81.82%	0.006	0.7088	-0.153
C	22	40.91%	47.86	81.82%	0.006	0.5332	0.005
D	24	45.83%	47.13	83.33%	0.006	0.7405	0.005
E	25	40.0%	49.84	84.0%	-0.135	0.4492	-0.106
F	24	41.67%	46.46	83.33%	-0.079	0.6276	0.005
G	21	47.62%	46.9	85.71%	-0.069	0.5728	-0.099
H	20	40.0%	43.7	90.0%	0.3	0.9453	0.161

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	1	0.0%	96.0	100.0%			0.125
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%	0.082	0.1971	0.114

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.63	50.0%
II	9	31.12	100.0%
III	10	34.7	80.0%
IV	5	37.97	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	8
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	9
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	5
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.