Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
24	41.67%	54.96	83.33%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	17	41.18%	61.65	82.35%	0.004	-0.0711	0.228
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%			-0.223
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	3	66.67%	39.67	66.67%			-0.223
Downpour Drenches the World	2	0.0%	100.5	100.0%	0.125	0.3898	0.355
Eyes Watch From the Trees	5	60.0%	57.8	60.0%	-0.253	-0.7565	-0.124
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%			-0.223
Finder of Paths Unseen	4	50.0%	83.25	75.0%	0.125	0.4807	0.014
Fractured Days Split the Sky	9	22.22%	67.89	100.0%	0.257	0.3394	0.325
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%			-0.223
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	3	33.33%	29.33	66.67%	-0.253	-0.8569
Lightning's Swift Strike	2	100.0%	30.0	100.0%			0.195
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	2	50.0%	25.5	50.0%	-0.253	-0.8172
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%			-0.167
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	2	0.0%	37.0	100.0%
Many Minds Move as One	3	33.33%	53.33	100.0%	0.125	-0.461	0.334
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	11	45.45%	38.82	81.82%	-0.121	-0.2906	0.019
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	8	37.5%	35.88	87.5%	0.133	0.0583	-0.198
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	3	66.67%	101.67	66.67%			0.092
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	10	50.0%	68.9	90.0%	0.133	-0.0611	0.257
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	1	0.0%	43.0	0.0%			-0.189
Shifting Memory of Ages	5	40.0%	77.4	100.0%			0.195
Starlight Seeks its Form	10	40.0%	64.8	90.0%	0.125	0.0101	-0.085
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	40.0%	55.3	100.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	34.83	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	2	100.0%	100.0	50.0%			-0.124
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	5	60.0%	33.0	60.0%	-0.253	0.6449	-0.223
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%			0.217
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	0.0%	41.0	50.0%			-0.384
Volcano Looming High	2	50.0%	31.0	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0		50.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	3	100.0%	84.0		33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0	2.25	0.0%	0.133	2.3072
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0		100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	0.0%	96.0	3.721	100.0%	0.125	1.6826
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	4	75.0%	123.0		75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits	0	1	100.0%	12.0	0.0%	-0.253	0.2423
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	0.133	0.364	0.019
Rituals of Terror	3	5	80.0%	108.8	60.0%			-0.347

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%			0.195
All Things Weaken	2	32.0	0.0%	-0.253	1.7954	-0.223
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Downward Spiral	1	148.0	100.0%			0.34
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Promising Farmlands	1	30.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	52.0	0.0%			-0.465

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	21	42.86%	46.86	85.71%	0.004	0.7404	0.194
B	18	38.89%	49.94	77.78%	-0.128	0.5687	-0.181
C	18	38.89%	49.06	77.78%	0.004	0.4738	0.005
D	20	45.0%	48.05	80.0%	0.004	0.7135	0.005
E	22	40.91%	51.68	81.82%	0.004	0.5485	0.005
F	21	38.1%	46.95	80.95%	0.004	0.6656	0.005
G	18	50.0%	46.89	83.33%	-0.121	0.51	-0.127
H	17	35.29%	43.71	88.24%	0.257	0.9221	0.13

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Unlimited Undo	1	0.0%	96.0	100.0%	0.125	-0.4266	0.138
Using Tokens but Not Events	8	37.5%	50.13	87.5%	0.133	0.2877	0.062

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.65	50.0%
II	8	31.08	100.0%
III	9	34.66	77.78%
IV	3	37.91	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	8
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	3
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.