Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 0.0 -0.945 0.0% -0.066 0.3783
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 0.0% 77.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 0.0% 74.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 146.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3 100.0% 84.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 52.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 105.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 16.67% 80.17 7.913 83.33% 0.323 1.2903
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 0.0% 43.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 0.0 -0.945 0.0% -0.066 0.1041
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 75.0% 98.4 -1.073 60.0% -0.065 1.6028

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 100.0% 12.0 0.0%
Blitz 0 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.092 0.1083
Dahan Insurrection 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.065 -0.2768 -0.181
Elemental Invocation 1 1 100.0% 23.0 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 0.0% 49.33 33.33% 0.141
Rituals of Terror 3 5 80.0% 108.8 60.0% -0.38

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 1 30.0 100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1 147.0 100.0% 0.178
All Things Weaken 3 51.67 33.33% -0.018
Back Against the Wall 1 41.0 100.0% 0.323 0.3994 0.152
Downward Spiral 1 148.0 100.0% 0.325
Memory Fades to Dust 1 29.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 23.0 100.0%
Promising Farmlands 1 30.0 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 56.5 50.0% -0.481

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 46 26.67% 35.91 60.87% -0.005 0.8999 0.258
B 42 21.95% 35.14 54.76% -0.224 0.6045 -0.437
C 45 22.73% 34.47 53.33% -0.005 0.6751 0.006
D 48 25.53% 33.94 54.17% -0.005 0.8483 0.006
E 46 24.44% 37.91 58.7% -0.005 0.6962 -0.075
F 47 23.91% 32.68 53.19% -0.005 0.7762 -0.091
G 41 27.5% 31.44 53.66% -0.005 0.7666 0.032
H 37 24.32% 36.11 62.16% 0.219 0.9873 0.342

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.065 0.7654 -0.181
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.065 -0.6276 -0.181
Start of Game Growth 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.065 -0.6042 -0.181
Unlimited Undo 7 16.67% 68.71 71.43% -0.065 -0.0245 -0.183
Using Tokens but Not Events 9 37.5% 44.56 77.78% -0.065 -0.0889 -0.003

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 22 16.23 9.09%
II 12 30.54 100.0%
III 12 34.77 83.33%
IV 6 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 12
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 18
Lose: Adversary condition 1
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)