Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (7 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
19	36.84%	52.42	84.21%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	12	33.33%	60.42	83.33%	-0.099	-0.2135	0.147
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%			-0.151
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	3	66.67%	39.67	66.67%	0.104	-0.0576	-0.151
Downpour Drenches the World	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%	0.07	0.3224	0.329
Eyes Watch From the Trees	3	33.33%	43.0	66.67%	-0.22	-0.6576	-0.179
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	2	50.0%	46.0	50.0%			-0.151
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%	-0.324	0.0399	-0.179
Fractured Days Split the Sky	7	28.57%	68.29	100.0%
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%			-0.151
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	2	0.0%	38.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike	1	100.0%	30.0	100.0%	0.069	0.3434	0.291
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense	1	0.0%	37.0	100.0%	0.104	-0.673
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	4	0.0%	56.5	75.0%	0.07	-0.1967	0.035
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	2	0.0%	37.0	100.0%
Many Minds Move as One	2	50.0%	32.0	100.0%	0.069	-0.5338	0.291
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	9	33.33%	42.78	88.89%	0.07	-0.1152	0.035
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	2	50.0%	33.5	100.0%	0.104	0.1244
River Surges in Sunlight	7	28.57%	36.71	85.71%	0.104	0.0695	-0.295
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	2	50.0%	78.5	50.0%	-0.254	-0.5542	0.15
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	7	42.86%	67.71	85.71%	-0.168	-0.2213	0.112
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	39.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	1	100.0%	41.0	100.0%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	1	0.0%	43.0	0.0%	0.155	-0.1316	-0.004
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	50.0%	87.5	100.0%	0.069	0.144	0.291
Starlight Seeks its Form	8	50.0%	64.38	87.5%			-0.151
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	10	40.0%	55.3	100.0%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	6	50.0%	34.83	100.0%	0.104	0.2884
Thunderspeaker	1	100.0%	52.0	0.0%	-0.238	-0.1733	-0.179
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	3	33.33%	41.0	66.67%			-0.151
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	0.0%	105.0	100.0%	0.07	0.4565	0.329
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	2	0.0%	41.0	50.0%	0.086	1.2604	-0.295
Volcano Looming High	2	50.0%	31.0	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	0.0%	74.0	5.501	50.0%	0.07	1.6485
The Kingdom of England	5	9	2	50.0%	146.0	2.32	100.0%	0.069	1.8065
The Kingdom of England	6	11	2	100.0%	52.0	0.058	0.0%	-0.324	1.9753
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	52.0		0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	5	8	1	0.0%	105.0	5.501	100.0%	0.07	1.501
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	1	0.0%	43.0		0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	3	66.67%	114.67	0.058	66.67%	-0.324	1.6954

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Elemental Invocation	1	1	100.0%	23.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	2	0.0%	74.0	50.0%	0.07	0.3753	0.035
Rituals of Terror	3	4	75.0%	99.0	50.0%	-0.324	-0.2024	-0.33

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	1	30.0	100.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	147.0	100.0%	0.069	1.7989	0.291
All Things Weaken	1	52.0	0.0%			-0.151
Back Against the Wall	1	41.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	2	23.0	100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles	1	52.0	0.0%	-0.324	1.6696	-0.179

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
A	16	37.5%	41.31	87.5%	-0.064	0.7332	-0.0
B	14	28.57%	43.79	78.57%	0.005	0.7485	-0.004
C	13	30.77%	43.08	76.92%	0.005	0.5734	-0.004
D	15	40.0%	42.53	80.0%	0.005	0.8006	-0.004
E	17	35.29%	47.88	82.35%	0.005	0.652	-0.004
F	16	31.25%	41.44	81.25%	0.005	0.7291	-0.004
G	15	40.0%	43.6	86.67%	-0.151	0.5808	-0.183
H	14	35.71%	41.43	85.71%	0.225	0.9373	0.175

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Using Tokens but Not Events	6	33.33%	36.0	83.33%	-0.22	-0.3764	-0.179

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	4	22.56	50.0%
II	7	30.98	100.0%
III	7	34.53	85.71%
IV	1	37.77	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	1
Lose: Adversary condition	1
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Spirit destroyed	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.