Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 0.0% 37.0 0.723 100.0% 0.14 0.6268
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 31.14 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 16.67% 41.33 -1.948 66.67% 0.012 -0.0213
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 0.0% 33.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 25.0% 36.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 70.0 12.866 100.0% 0.152 0.5306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 20.0% 21.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 50.0% 54.5 1.447 100.0% 0.178 0.4983
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 28.33 1.753 66.67% 0.195 0.6739
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 11.11% 30.89 -6.792 44.44% -0.309 0.7308
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 0.0% 40.0 -12.276 66.67% -0.272 0.7279
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 346 0.87% 71.7 5.012 80.64% 0.457 2.2993
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 0.0% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 73.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 25.0% 33.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 28.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 27 7.41% 53.37 -1.136 70.37% -0.202 0.2553
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 47 29.79% 54.94 59.57%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 37.0 0.723 100.0% 0.14 0.3832
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 333 0.6% 72.78 5.012 82.28% 0.457 0.4911
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 26 15.38% 59.96 18.71 80.77% 0.702 0.9528
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 0.0% 0.0 -20.88 0.0% -0.904 -0.1497
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 55.86 1.013 71.43% 0.001 0.8973
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 41.67% 64.15 46.15%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 8.67 33.33%
Blitz 0 19 25.0% 33.21 94.74% -0.492
Dahan Insurrection 4 16 25.0% 52.31 56.25% 0.002
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 444 2.48% 66.92 77.93% 0.091 -0.4616 0.423
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.47
Second Wave 0 12 25.0% 33.25 100.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 3 44.33 66.67% 0.114
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 60.67 66.67% 0.392
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67% -0.053
Erosion of Will 4 40.75 50.0% -0.265
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0% 0.562
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3 42.33 66.67% 0.278
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.303
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 64.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 85.0 100.0% 0.405
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.334
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 4 50.25 75.0% -0.3

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 645 7.18% 55.81 76.9% -0.097 0.9076 0.538
B 622 7.6% 55.1 75.56% -0.479 0.4404 -0.557
C 656 7.54% 55.81 76.68% -0.371 0.3639 0.41
D 655 6.92% 55.72 75.88% 0.62 1.5981 0.08
E 319 12.96% 38.59 69.59% 0.121 0.9411 0.091
F 289 16.54% 35.7 66.78% 0.226 1.0995 -0.236
G 529 5.77% 60.77 78.07% -0.075 0.7347 0.228
H 540 4.52% 59.85 77.41% 0.117 0.9316 -0.606

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48% -0.135
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 30.55 83.87% -0.274
Start of Game Growth 37 0.0% 33.54 78.38% -0.568
Unlimited Undo 42 4.76% 24.79 76.19% 0.129 0.0199 -0.274
Using Tokens but Not Events 477 2.41% 63.85 78.41% 0.091 0.0654 -0.389

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 260 13.33 38.85%
II 322 30.1 96.58%
III 105 34.83 96.19%
IV 25 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 101
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 96
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 306
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 127
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 33
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)