Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
98	24.71%	40.86	91.84%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	53	27.5%	36.3	90.57%	-0.816
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	9	11.11%	34.11	88.89%
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	19	0.0%	31.89	100.0%
Downpour Drenches the World	5	25.0%	51.6	100.0%	0.173
Eyes Watch From the Trees	18	11.11%	43.89	94.44%	-0.055
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	10	0.0%	38.0	90.0%	-0.194
Finder of Paths Unseen	3	0.0%	64.0	100.0%	0.176
Fractured Days Split the Sky	7	28.57%	42.29	100.0%	0.176
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	6	0.0%	37.83	100.0%
Heart of the Wildfire	10	20.0%	31.2	80.0%
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	45	21.95%	47.04	86.67%	-0.162
Lightning's Swift Strike	14	16.67%	35.57	85.71%	-0.237
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	6	33.33%	33.5	66.67%	-0.403
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	13	15.38%	60.54	100.0%	0.475
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	27	14.81%	39.59	88.89%	-0.274
Many Minds Move as One	16	37.5%	39.0	93.75%	0.176
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	46	34.21%	44.5	89.13%	0.062
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	14	12.5%	38.0	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	28	18.18%	45.82	92.86%	0.497
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	6	50.0%	42.0	83.33%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	4	0.0%	35.0	100.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	26	32.0%	37.15	100.0%	0.17
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	3	33.33%	25.33	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	0.0%	29.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	3	33.33%	28.67	66.67%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	20	20.0%	44.85	100.0%	0.272
Shifting Memory of Ages	16	50.0%	41.69	87.5%	-0.234
Shroud of Silent Mist	10	10.0%	34.3	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	28	17.86%	46.86	89.29%	0.251
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	21	28.57%	42.24	95.24%	0.176
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	28	21.05%	41.96	92.86%	-0.124
Thunderspeaker	14	30.77%	33.5	85.71%	-0.237
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	3	66.67%	34.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	24	27.27%	34.29	100.0%	0.272
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	4	0.0%	35.5	50.0%	-0.431
Volcano Looming High	7	14.29%	32.71	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	2	0.0%	39.5	100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	49.0	100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1	0.0%	74.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	4	0.0%	33.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	5	40.0%	32.8	60.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	2	50.0%	46.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	72.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	72.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	0.0%	73.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	3	6	1	100.0%	53.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	1	100.0%	70.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	2	50.0%	66.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	44.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	2	50.0%	27.5	0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	4	25.0%	61.75	50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	0	1	2	0.0%	35.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	4	7	1	100.0%	57.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	0.0%	81.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	100.0%	55.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	6	0.0%	63.33	66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia	2	4	2	0.0%	51.0	100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	3	33.33%	84.33	100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	10	100.0%	33.1	90.0%	-0.254
Dahan Insurrection	4	2	0.0%	47.0	100.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	6	33.33%	31.5	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	10	0.0%	55.0	70.0%	-0.159
Second Wave	0	7	28.57%	34.0	100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits	2	55.0	100.0%
All Things Weaken	3	40.33	66.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	4	61.5	100.0%	0.343
Downward Spiral	3	26.33	33.33%	-0.254
Erosion of Will	2	50.0	50.0%	-0.187
Memory Fades to Dust	2	43.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	55.0	100.0%
Thriving Communities	2	21.5	100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation	2	28.5	100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	86	24.0%	40.63	91.86%	-0.264
B	75	27.27%	37.97	92.0%	-0.314
C	86	25.33%	41.4	91.86%	0.262
D	78	22.39%	41.51	92.31%	0.237
E	77	19.4%	42.05	93.51%	0.202
F	72	31.15%	38.88	90.28%	-0.06
G	53	27.66%	42.23	86.79%	-0.335
H	55	19.57%	41.64	94.55%	0.319

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	13	0.0%	32.92	100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	14	0.0%	37.21	100.0%
Start of Game Growth	18	0.0%	42.94	88.89%	-0.159
Unlimited Undo	14	100.0%	33.0	100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events	24	9.09%	36.58	91.67%	-0.159

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	15	22.62	66.67%
II	35	31.05	94.29%
III	35	34.62	97.14%
IV	13	37.86	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	33
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	32
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	13
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1
Lose: Adversary condition	2
Lose: Scenario condition	3
Win: Scenario condition	2
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.