Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
79	26.03%	39.97	89.87%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	42	30.56%	36.0	88.1%	-0.727
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	8	12.5%	30.75	87.5%
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	12	0.0%	31.17	100.0%
Eyes Watch From the Trees	14	14.29%	47.0	92.86%	-0.014
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	9	0.0%	38.78	88.89%	-0.181
Finder of Paths Unseen	2	0.0%	55.5	100.0%	0.189
Fractured Days Split the Sky	6	33.33%	35.83	100.0%	0.189
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	5	0.0%	38.6	100.0%
Heart of the Wildfire	9	22.22%	27.89	77.78%
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	37	24.24%	46.38	83.78%	-0.186
Lightning's Swift Strike	11	16.67%	36.36	81.82%	-0.246
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium	5	20.0%	28.8	60.0%	-0.346
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	13	15.38%	60.54	100.0%	0.544
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	21	14.29%	35.19	85.71%	-0.415
Many Minds Move as One	13	46.15%	36.23	92.31%	0.189
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	39	35.14%	44.77	87.18%	0.164
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	9	14.29%	33.56	100.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	24	14.29%	46.0	91.67%	0.398
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	6	50.0%	42.0	83.33%
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	1	0.0%	29.0	100.0%
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	24	34.78%	37.42	100.0%	0.193
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	3	33.33%	25.33	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	1	0.0%	29.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	0.0%	28.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	3	33.33%	28.67	66.67%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	13	23.08%	43.92	100.0%	0.281
Shifting Memory of Ages	15	53.33%	42.2	86.67%	-0.153
Shroud of Silent Mist	10	10.0%	34.3	100.0%
Starlight Seeks its Form	23	17.39%	44.43	86.96%	0.194
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	18	27.78%	42.5	94.44%	0.189
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	18	20.0%	38.56	88.89%	-0.215
Thunderspeaker	11	30.0%	31.18	81.82%	-0.246
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	2	50.0%	22.5	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth	17	27.27%	34.41	100.0%	0.281
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience	4	0.0%	35.5	50.0%	-0.428
Volcano Looming High	5	0.0%	27.6	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	1	0.0%	38.0	100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	1	0.0%	49.0	100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	1	0.0%	74.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	3	0.0%	32.67	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	5	40.0%	32.8	60.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	1	100.0%	32.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	72.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	72.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	2	0.0%	73.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	3	6	1	100.0%	53.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	5	9	1	100.0%	70.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	2	50.0%	66.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	1	3	2	100.0%	44.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	2	50.0%	27.5	0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	4	25.0%	61.75	50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	100.0%	55.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	6	0.0%	63.33	66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia	2	4	2	0.0%	51.0	100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	6	11	1	0.0%	82.0	100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz	0	3	100.0%	31.0	66.67%	-0.234
Dahan Insurrection	4	2	0.0%	47.0	100.0%
Elemental Invocation	1	5	40.0%	29.6	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	7	0.0%	51.71	57.14%	-0.147
Second Wave	0	7	28.57%	34.0	100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits	2	55.0	100.0%
All Things Weaken	2	32.0	50.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem	3	56.0	100.0%	0.193
Downward Spiral	3	26.33	33.33%	-0.234
Erosion of Will	2	50.0	50.0%	-0.162
Memory Fades to Dust	2	43.0	100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	55.0	100.0%
Thriving Communities	2	21.5	100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation	2	28.5	100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	69	25.0%	40.2	89.86%	-0.274
B	59	29.09%	36.39	89.83%	-0.387
C	68	26.98%	40.41	89.71%	0.241
D	61	26.32%	41.43	90.16%	0.353
E	61	21.43%	41.2	91.8%	0.188
F	56	33.33%	36.88	87.5%	-0.098
G	48	27.27%	41.31	85.42%	-0.186
H	47	16.28%	41.55	93.62%	0.205

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card	6	0.0%	31.67	100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions	6	0.0%	31.67	100.0%
Start of Game Growth	10	0.0%	44.2	80.0%	-0.147
Unlimited Undo	7	100.0%	32.0	100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events	17	9.09%	37.65	88.24%	-0.147

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	9	22.56	44.44%
II	28	30.98	92.86%
III	29	34.53	96.55%
IV	13	37.77	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	27
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	25
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	13
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1
Lose: Adversary condition	2
Lose: Scenario condition	3
Win: Scenario condition	2
Lose: Blight pool ran out	2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.