Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 13.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 19 25.0% 33.21 94.74%
Dahan Insurrection 4 20 25.0% 46.9 55.0% -0.332
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 610 1.97% 69.13 80.33% 0.233 -0.3669 -0.004
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 152.0 100.0% 0.27
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 22 31.82% 34.73 86.36% 0.25 0.3559
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3 33.33 33.33% -0.084
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 36.67 66.67%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 3 44.33 66.67%
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 8 51.63 50.0% -0.145
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67%
Erosion of Will 8 44.38 75.0%
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 31.0 60.0% 0.154 -0.2095
Memory Fades to Dust 5 42.6 80.0% -0.069 0.2602
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 64.33 100.0% 0.108
Promising Farmlands 1 19.0 100.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 34.0 50.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 83.0 100.0% 0.101
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 3 31.33 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 5 52.8 80.0% 0.263

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 858 7.38% 57.9 77.51% 0.196 1.1875 0.412
B 842 8.0% 56.98 76.01% 0.119 0.9843 -0.281
C 868 7.18% 57.74 77.19% 0.004 0.7558 0.426
D 877 7.58% 57.48 76.51% 0.204 1.1487 0.322
E 388 15.14% 37.13 67.53% -0.168 0.5865 0.241
F 352 18.51% 34.26 64.49% -0.152 0.7225 -0.654
G 728 5.84% 62.13 78.43% -0.16 0.7029 -0.243
H 727 4.87% 62.02 78.54% -0.02 0.7875 -0.282

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 30.55 83.87%
Start of Game Growth 44 0.0% 36.23 75.0% -0.066 -0.6325 -0.018
Unlimited Undo 44 8.7% 24.5 75.0% -0.24 -0.2127
Using Tokens but Not Events 642 2.09% 66.47 80.37% -0.182 -0.2089 0.027

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 349 12.25 41.83%
II 428 29.91 96.26%
III 127 34.94 93.7%
IV 40 38.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 146
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 113
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 406
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 40
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 169
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 39
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)