Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 1.418 100.0% 0.216 -0.1625
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 31.14 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 20.0% 42.6 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 0.0% 33.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 25.0% 36.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 20.0% 21.4 -1.317 40.0% -0.156 0.1451
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 28.33 12.335 66.67% 0.328 0.906
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 305 0.99% 70.61 2.093 79.34% -0.185 1.7139
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 0.0% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 73.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 25.0% 33.75 -34.932 50.0% -0.668 -0.3229
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 28.0 -5.602 50.0% -0.192 -0.0764
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 23 8.7% 55.61 0.874 73.91% 0.305 0.9255
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 47 29.79% 54.94 3.806 59.57% -0.224 0.8226
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 292 0.68% 71.79 1.97 81.16% 0.099 0.2315
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 24 16.67% 58.21 7.301 79.17% 0.214 0.5409
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 0.0% 0.0 -14.188 0.0% -0.218 0.5469
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 19 0.0% 58.05 73.68%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 41.67% 64.15 -2.229 46.15% -0.387 1.2203

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 8.67 33.33% -0.243 -0.1984
Blitz 0 19 25.0% 33.21 94.74% 0.26 0.474 -0.485
Dahan Insurrection 4 16 25.0% 52.31 56.25% -0.224 -0.5121 0.152
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 391 2.81% 66.6 77.49% 0.631 0.0308 0.565
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0% -0.156 0.6816
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.483
Second Wave 0 12 25.0% 33.25 100.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 3 44.33 66.67% -0.078 -0.1143 0.116
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 60.67 66.67% -0.146 0.0425 0.496
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67% -0.002
Erosion of Will 4 40.75 50.0% -0.245
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0% 0.528
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3 42.33 66.67% -0.156 -0.7698 0.264
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.335
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 64.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0% 0.269 0.5669
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 85.0 100.0% 0.415
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.297
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 4 50.25 75.0% -0.262

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 589 7.88% 54.86 76.57% -0.078 0.8972 0.559
B 565 8.39% 54.32 75.4% -0.537 0.3526 -0.492
C 600 8.26% 55.12 76.5% 0.482 1.1739 0.595
D 596 7.63% 54.76 75.34% -0.195 0.7005 0.18
E 300 13.83% 39.28 70.67% 0.894 1.6235 0.013
F 273 17.58% 36.0 67.4% -0.676 0.1557 -0.354
G 473 6.47% 60.06 77.8% 0.078 0.8575 0.263
H 484 5.05% 59.01 76.86% -0.014 0.7683 -0.817

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48% -0.131
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 30.55 83.87% 0.172 -0.5975 -0.29
Start of Game Growth 37 0.0% 33.54 78.38% 0.172 -0.2663 -0.556
Unlimited Undo 41 5.0% 24.61 75.61% 0.172 0.106 -0.29
Using Tokens but Not Events 424 2.73% 63.17 78.07% 0.4 0.3574 -0.261

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 229 13.76 36.24%
II 295 30.19 96.61%
III 100 34.82 96.0%
IV 25 38.63 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 83
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 91
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 280
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 115
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 31
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)