Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 2 0.0% 18.5 50.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 100.0% 67.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 27.75 -2.676 25.0% -0.088 1.6266
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 0.0% 24.22 -3.42 66.67% -0.094 0.2571
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 16 18.75% 39.69 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 0.0% 33.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 10 30.0% 35.1 -11.487 50.0% -0.279 0.0824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 20.0% 61.2 -0.806 80.0% -0.176 0.0923
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 14.29% 20.29 -0.662 42.86% 0.129 0.3321
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 33.33% 53.67 2.887 100.0% 0.143 0.465
The Kingdom of England 2 4 4 25.0% 35.0 2.997 75.0% 0.163 0.7287
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 11.11% 30.89 44.44%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 0.0% 40.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 72.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 443 0.9% 72.98 1.814 82.39% -0.154 1.7328
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 31.5 -0.51 50.0% 0.181 0.6475
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 75.0% 22.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 0.0% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 9.09% 67.18 72.73%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 5 20.0% 27.0 -9.641 40.0% -0.142 0.3796
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 66.67% 41.33 2.661 83.33% 0.38 0.5643
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 32 9.38% 53.75 -2.355 71.88% -0.087 0.5533
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54 27.78% 52.09 55.56%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 429 0.93% 74.14 3.118 84.15% 0.213 0.3425
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 29 20.69% 58.34 -3.295 79.31% -0.104 0.157
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 10 0.0% 24.8 2.088 40.0% 0.174 0.7507
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 22 4.55% 54.23 -3.087 68.18% -0.126 0.6702
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 2 0.0% 61.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 17 43.75% 59.71 41.18%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 13.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 19 25.0% 33.21 94.74%
Dahan Insurrection 4 20 25.0% 46.9 55.0% -0.347
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 550 2.18% 68.57 79.82% 0.108 -0.4879 -0.106
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 26.0 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 1 0.0% 152.0 100.0% 0.323
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0%
Second Wave 0 17 23.53% 34.71 94.12% 0.305 0.301
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3 33.33 33.33% -0.176 -0.0272 -0.077
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 36.67 66.67%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 3 44.33 66.67%
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 56.14 57.14% -0.146
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67%
Erosion of Will 8 44.38 75.0% 0.38 0.6376
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 31.75 50.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 3 48.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 64.33 100.0% 0.111
Promising Farmlands 1 19.0 100.0%
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 34.0 50.0% -0.23 -0.0127
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 83.0 100.0% 0.088 -0.5364 0.086
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 3 31.33 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 5 52.8 80.0% 0.278 0.5036 0.243

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 788 7.66% 57.14 77.28% -0.037 0.7622 0.622
B 772 8.21% 56.23 75.78% 0.008 0.7382 -0.494
C 797 7.46% 57.04 77.04% -0.544 0.0605 0.061
D 807 7.74% 56.69 76.33% -0.166 0.5906 0.337
E 373 14.65% 37.28 68.1% 0.32 0.9045 0.156
F 339 18.01% 34.59 65.19% -0.155 0.5474 -0.535
G 665 6.25% 61.28 78.2% 0.025 0.7823 -0.033
H 668 5.16% 61.21 78.29% 0.597 1.228 -0.175

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48%
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 30.55 83.87%
Start of Game Growth 38 0.0% 32.66 76.32% -0.182
Unlimited Undo 43 9.09% 25.07 76.74%
Using Tokens but Not Events 586 2.3% 65.82 80.03% 0.021 -0.1061 0.137

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 320 12.44 40.63%
II 392 29.94 96.17%
III 121 34.9 95.04%
IV 39 38.84 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 130
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 109
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 371
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 39
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 157
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 37
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)