Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 62.0 10.998 100.0% 0.112 1.1106
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 0.0% 33.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 33.33% 35.33 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 6.45% 62.19 2.936 67.74% 0.095 2.0892
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 -17.063 66.67% -0.293 0.5136
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 29.0 -5.868 0.0% -0.326 1.0719
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 8.268 50.0% 0.269 1.7828
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 14.29% 70.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 0.0% 35.4 -5.868 80.0% -0.326 -0.1139
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 31.0 4.793 50.0% 0.188 0.5729
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 6.432 100.0% 0.605 0.9831
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 39.0 -4.271 50.0% -0.363 0.4985
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10 10.0% 61.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 20 25.0% 60.65 8.763 65.0% 0.239 1.3797
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 32 6.25% 62.13 2.936 71.88% 0.095 0.1903
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 25.0% 58.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 80.2 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 0.0% 49.89 8.843 55.56% 0.185 1.1833
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 8.268 100.0% 0.269 0.36
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 -6.837 80.0% -0.125 0.2693
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 -14.773 0.0% -0.234 0.724
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 28.57% 102.29 17.91 85.71% 0.107 2.0887

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 13.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 17 50.0% 33.12 94.12% -0.32
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 65.22 77.78% 0.492 0.2565 0.286
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0% 0.188 0.9901
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 79 6.33% 56.49 68.35% -0.024 -0.7978 0.082
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.461 0.5955 -0.522
Second Wave 0 10 30.0% 33.3 100.0% 0.187 0.2676
Ward the Shores 2 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Back Against the Wall 1 21.0 0.0% -0.363 -0.2877
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 62.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.56
Downward Spiral 4 36.25 50.0% -0.32
Erosion of Will 3 35.67 33.33% -0.19
Intensifying Exploitation 1 77.0 100.0% 0.295
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1 72.0 100.0% 0.151 -0.3814 0.188
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.145 0.2979 0.139
Thriving Communities 2 21.5 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.258 0.1555 0.243
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 3 54.67 100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 215 13.64% 40.25 75.81% -0.143 0.8513 -0.254
B 204 17.02% 39.7 74.51% -0.294 0.624 -0.347
C 220 15.84% 42.33 77.73% 0.063 0.8052 0.423
D 216 14.14% 42.71 76.85% 0.155 1.107 0.394
E 193 14.2% 40.41 77.2% 0.37 1.1502 0.108
F 177 19.25% 38.64 76.27% -0.17 0.7225 0.124
G 131 18.03% 44.18 74.81% 0.175 1.0307 0.088
H 145 11.76% 42.61 73.79% -0.107 0.7411 -0.487

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 31.3 95.0% -0.232 0.3976
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 0.0% 33.71 91.67% -0.232 -0.8669 -0.322
Start of Game Growth 28 0.0% 37.89 85.71% -0.232 -0.6213 -0.425
Unlimited Undo 33 7.69% 27.06 81.82% -0.279 -0.2342 -0.322
Using Tokens but Not Events 101 7.41% 48.79 75.25% -0.492 -0.5192 -0.132

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 72 17.67 29.17%
II 102 30.7 94.12%
III 63 34.75 95.24%
IV 16 38.22 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 21
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 57
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 92
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 40
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 11
Win: Scenario condition 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)