Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 100.0% 32.0 -4.699 0.0% -0.452 -0.1641
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 100.0% 72.0 5.827 100.0% 0.178 0.5451
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 55.0 1.138 100.0% 0.11 0.3449

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Downward Spiral 1 32.0 -4.699 0.0% -0.452 1.571
Erosion of Will 1 72.0 5.827 100.0% 0.178 2.3872
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 1.138 100.0% 0.11 2.1338

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 4 75.0% 49.0 0.0 75.0% 0.005 -0.7557
B 4 75.0% 49.0 0.0 75.0% 0.005 -0.8524
C 3 66.67% 47.0 -1.138 66.67% -0.105 -1.194
D 4 75.0% 49.0 0.0 75.0% 0.005 -0.8455
E 2 100.0% 63.5 5.224 100.0% 0.288 -0.6771
F 4 75.0% 49.0 0.0 75.0% 0.005 -0.9094
G 3 66.67% 41.33 -5.827 66.67% -0.173 -1.0789

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 0 22.35
II 1 30.84 100.0%
III 3 34.35 66.67%
IV 0 37.52

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)