Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.723 0.0% -0.235 0.5947
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 48.0 8.411 100.0% 0.227 1.2182
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.5 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 33.33% 35.33 -7.616 50.0% -0.473 -0.2761
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 16.67% 73.58 2.867 83.33% -0.056 1.9863
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 14.29% 70.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 1.034 100.0% 0.116 0.5577
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10 10.0% 61.9 3.844 80.0% 0.116 0.8991
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 20.0% 31.2 40.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 11.11% 79.22 9.522 100.0% 0.298 0.3244
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 25.0% 58.5 4.958 75.0% 0.082 0.3054
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 0.0% 80.2 11.497 100.0% 0.63 1.0573
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 -20.682 0.0% -0.368 0.6411
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 0.0% 54.29 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 10.996 100.0% 0.228 0.8688
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 51.0 11.094 100.0% 0.193 0.619
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 84.33 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 13.0 50.0% -0.238 -0.494
Blitz 0 17 50.0% 33.12 94.12% 0.195 0.392 -0.326
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 33.33% 31.5 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 46 6.52% 59.22 73.91% 0.297 -0.3472 0.002
Second Wave 0 8 25.0% 33.88 100.0% -0.188 -0.122
Ward the Shores 2 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0% 0.227 0.6194
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 62.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% -0.192 0.232 0.439
Downward Spiral 3 26.33 33.33% -0.326
Erosion of Will 3 35.67 33.33% -0.227 0.0825 -0.18
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 2 21.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 68.5 100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 149 17.29% 41.11 83.22% 0.895 1.6347 0.232
B 137 20.49% 38.03 81.02% -0.285 0.4412 -0.251
C 153 19.12% 42.08 84.31% -0.246 0.3362 0.341
D 147 16.15% 42.63 83.67% 0.262 0.9736 0.459
E 141 16.0% 41.31 82.98% 0.113 0.6785 0.037
F 133 22.03% 40.68 82.71% -0.232 0.4381 -0.107
G 92 21.69% 43.63 78.26% -0.335 0.3169 -0.14
H 96 13.79% 42.1 79.17% -0.216 0.3549 -0.524

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 32.95 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 22 0.0% 36.77 100.0% 0.311 -0.3065
Start of Game Growth 26 0.0% 40.81 92.31% 0.311 -0.0374 -0.134
Unlimited Undo 23 25.0% 32.61 95.65% 0.096 0.0891
Using Tokens but Not Events 69 8.0% 47.7 82.61% 0.645 0.6348 0.002

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 46 20.4 43.48%
II 69 31.01 95.65%
III 48 34.76 95.83%
IV 14 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 45
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 65
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 16
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 2
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)