Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 2.919 50.0% 0.091 0.8569
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 0.338 100.0% 0.094 1.0512
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 0.154 33.33% -0.267 1.7106
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 31.14 4.425 85.71% 0.154 0.3682
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 20.0% 42.6 7.361 70.0% 0.438 0.5479
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 0.0% 28.67 1.819 66.67% 0.142 0.2182
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 25.0% 36.63 1.148 50.0% -0.045 0.1362
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 14.33 -6.555 33.33% -0.162 0.2509
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 134 2.26% 68.43 3.147 77.61% -0.046 1.9361
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 29.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9 11.11% 73.56 77.78%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 -2.317 75.0% 0.028 0.1675
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.0 11.115 66.67% 0.157 0.5794
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 5.421 75.0% 0.355 1.0278
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 11 18.18% 62.09 5.685 81.82% 0.178 0.813
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 35 20.0% 58.26 -6.032 65.71% -0.615 0.4371
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 125 1.6% 70.08 -1.498 80.8% -0.509 -0.441
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 11.11% 64.11 1.136 77.78% -0.01 0.3668
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 0.0% 59.06 9.094 76.47% 0.71 1.6541
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 28.57% 89.5 75.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 13.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 17 50.0% 33.12 94.12% -0.458
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 8.33% 59.92 75.0% 0.247 0.1315 0.632
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 194 3.61% 64.59 76.8% 0.67 0.0882 0.327
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.475
Second Wave 0 11 27.27% 33.73 100.0% 0.107 0.186
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 42.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0% 0.154 1.1353

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 1 50.0 100.0%
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 62.0 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.786
Downward Spiral 5 40.0 60.0% -0.458
Erosion of Will 4 40.75 50.0% -0.248
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0% 0.345 0.6195 0.564
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 56.0 100.0% 0.256
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.293
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 64.0 100.0% 0.178 0.3482
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.226
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 4 50.25 75.0% -0.267 0.0726 -0.302

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 369 10.26% 49.3 76.69% 0.542 1.4051 0.169
B 345 11.59% 48.33 75.07% 0.237 1.0583 -0.323
C 375 10.96% 49.85 76.8% -0.156 0.5421 0.306
D 371 10.23% 50.01 76.01% 0.043 0.8987 0.209
E 250 13.36% 40.01 73.6% 0.366 1.0548 -0.168
F 225 18.75% 37.44 71.56% -0.632 0.186 -0.016
G 271 10.69% 54.43 76.38% 0.46 1.3407 0.259
H 282 7.69% 53.14 75.53% -0.868 -0.0876 -0.485

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48% -0.133
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 0.0% 31.78 85.19% 0.154 -0.4135 -0.383
Start of Game Growth 31 0.0% 35.81 80.65% 0.154 -0.5106 -0.63
Unlimited Undo 36 6.67% 25.56 77.78% -0.383
Using Tokens but Not Events 221 3.5% 58.79 77.38% -0.428 -0.3805 -0.437

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 129 15.45 29.46%
II 187 30.45 95.72%
III 83 34.8 96.39%
IV 19 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 38
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 75
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 174
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 19
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 77
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 4
Lose: Scenario condition 15
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)