Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 0.0% 37.0 1.626 100.0% 0.187 0.6319
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 45.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 31.14 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 16.67% 41.33 -2.072 66.67% 0.013 -0.0411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 0.0% 33.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 25.0% 36.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 0.0% 70.0 14.001 100.0% 0.174 0.575
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 0.0% 48.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 5 20.0% 21.4 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 50.0% 54.5 -0.221 100.0% 0.187 0.4464
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 33.33% 28.33 4.081 66.67% 0.175 0.6378
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 11.11% 30.89 -6.088 44.44% -0.247 0.7751
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 0.0% 40.0 -12.611 66.67% -0.259 0.6954
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 340 0.88% 71.45 3.954 80.29% 0.166 2.0026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 0.0% 30.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 73.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 4 25.0% 33.75 -36.432 50.0% -0.633 -0.166
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 28.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 27 7.41% 53.37 -0.059 70.37% -0.213 0.2498
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 47 29.79% 54.94 59.57%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 37.0 1.626 100.0% 0.187 0.4414
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 327 0.61% 72.54 6.516 81.96% 0.994 1.017
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 26 15.38% 59.96 10.996 80.77% 0.648 0.8698
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 0.0% 0.0 -21.262 0.0% -0.861 -0.1115
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 0.0% 55.86 0.243 71.43% -0.023 0.8783
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 41.67% 64.15 46.15%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 8.67 33.33% -0.246 -0.0551
Blitz 0 19 25.0% 33.21 94.74% -0.492
Dahan Insurrection 4 16 25.0% 52.31 56.25% 0.001
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 438 2.51% 66.65 77.63% 0.419 -0.1424 0.424
Powers Long Forgotten 1 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.471
Second Wave 0 12 25.0% 33.25 100.0%
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 3 44.33 66.67% 0.114
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 6 60.67 66.67% 0.392
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67% -0.054
Erosion of Will 4 40.75 50.0% -0.265
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0% 0.562
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 3 42.33 66.67% 0.279
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.304
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 64.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 25.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 85.0 100.0% 0.405
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.334
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 4 50.25 75.0% -0.299

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 637 7.27% 55.66 76.77% 0.214 1.2115 0.538
B 615 7.69% 54.89 75.45% -0.673 0.2492 -0.558
C 648 7.63% 55.66 76.54% -0.117 0.612 0.409
D 647 7.01% 55.57 75.73% 0.556 1.5156 0.08
E 317 13.04% 38.76 69.72% 0.31 1.1288 0.096
F 287 16.67% 35.86 66.9% -0.111 0.7713 -0.235
G 523 5.84% 60.47 77.82% -0.179 0.6467 0.225
H 533 4.58% 59.62 77.11% -0.052 0.7871 -0.606

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48% -0.136
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 31 0.0% 30.55 83.87% 0.181 -0.4218 -0.274
Start of Game Growth 37 0.0% 33.54 78.38% 0.181 -0.3231 -0.567
Unlimited Undo 42 4.76% 24.79 76.19% 0.325 0.2183 -0.274
Using Tokens but Not Events 471 2.44% 63.56 78.13% -0.086 -0.1154 -0.389

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 255 13.42 38.04%
II 320 30.13 96.56%
III 104 34.83 96.15%
IV 25 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 97
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 95
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 304
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 126
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 33
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)