Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 0.865 100.0% 0.017 0.5246
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 40.0% 32.8 60.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 50.0% 46.5 2.824 50.0% 0.029 0.3952
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 100.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 71.5 10.788 100.0% 0.052 1.2183
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 -4.34 60.0% -0.457 1.22
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 2 50.0% 66.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 5.011 66.67% -0.137 1.9281
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 14.29% 70.43 11.239 71.43% 0.082 2.2568
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 66.0 2.193 100.0% 0.085 1.3236
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 0.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 55.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 0.0% 63.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 51.0 0.495 100.0% 0.046 0.4829
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 84.33 14.644 100.0% 0.018 1.989

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.021 0.517
Blitz 0 12 100.0% 33.08 91.67% 0.154 0.5968 -0.266
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 33.33% 31.5 100.0% 0.017 0.5624
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 24 0.0% 58.46 75.0% -0.281 -0.0498 -0.079
Second Wave 0 7 28.57% 34.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 3 40.33 66.67%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.348
Downward Spiral 3 26.33 33.33% -0.266
Erosion of Will 2 50.0 50.0% -0.187
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 2 21.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 103 20.0% 42.15 90.29% -0.082 0.654 -0.241
B 90 22.78% 39.39 90.0% -0.322 0.375 -0.39
C 104 20.88% 42.98 90.38% -0.091 0.3788 0.076
D 94 18.52% 43.64 91.49% 0.291 1.0003 0.482
E 93 16.05% 43.67 91.4% -0.365 0.1799 0.043
F 84 26.39% 41.38 90.48% 0.336 0.9972 -0.031
G 60 24.53% 44.22 88.33% 0.51 1.1413 -0.304
H 68 15.25% 44.43 91.18% -0.24 0.4245 0.405

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 32.93 100.0% 0.154 2.3826
Skip Initial Invader Actions 16 0.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.172 -0.8081
Start of Game Growth 20 0.0% 41.95 90.0% 0.172 -0.2847 -0.238
Unlimited Undo 16 100.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.154 -0.3978
Using Tokens but Not Events 39 4.17% 44.77 87.18% -0.176 -0.0209 -0.079

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 23 22.65 65.22%
II 44 31.08 95.45%
III 37 34.66 97.3%
IV 13 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 35
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 41
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 2
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)