Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 2 0.0% 23.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 0.0% 31.14 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 20.0% 42.6 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 4 0.0% 33.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 25.0% 36.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 0.0% 48.67 -4.713 66.67% -0.171 1.0581
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4 0.0% 23.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 275 1.09% 70.88 2.351 79.64% 0.069 1.9221
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 29.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 3 66.67% 32.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 0.0% 30.0 -1.084 33.33% 0.111 1.3613
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 10.0% 73.9 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 0.0% 34.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 0.0% 28.0 -1.18 50.0% 0.072 0.3578
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 50.0% 49.75 75.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 16 12.5% 59.63 0.6 81.25% 0.157 0.6712
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 44 25.0% 56.0 63.64%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 264 0.76% 71.98 1.373 81.44% -0.11 0.0817
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 5 20.0% 63.4 80.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 21.05% 56.42 78.95%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 19 0.0% 58.05 73.68%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 62.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 0.0% 40.8 80.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 55.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 25.0% 79.56 -4.713 66.67% -0.171 1.6085

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 13.0 50.0%
Blitz 0 17 50.0% 33.12 94.12% -0.523
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 7.69% 55.31 69.23% -0.171 -0.6529 0.395
Elemental Invocation 1 10 20.0% 34.9 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 354 3.11% 66.76 77.68% 0.226 -0.4305 0.444
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 0.0% 75.0 50.0% -0.508
Second Wave 0 12 25.0% 33.25 100.0% -0.154 -0.0599
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 21.0 50.0% -0.161 0.7077
Ward the Shores 2 2 50.0% 33.0 50.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0%
Attenuated Essence 2 66.5 100.0% 0.254
Back Against the Wall 2 49.0 50.0%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 66.5 100.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.812
Downward Spiral 6 47.83 66.67% 0.011
Erosion of Will 4 40.75 50.0% -0.255
Intensifying Exploitation 2 79.0 100.0% 0.501
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 2 56.0 100.0% 0.277
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2 63.0 100.0% 0.303
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 64.0 100.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 85.0 100.0% 0.437
Thriving Communities 3 29.67 100.0%
Thriving Crops 1 155.0 100.0% 0.237
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 4 50.25 75.0% -0.154 0.0779 -0.353

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 542 7.63% 54.86 77.31% 0.175 1.0931 0.496
B 519 8.17% 54.26 76.11% 0.176 1.0172 -0.274
C 553 8.05% 54.96 77.22% 0.149 0.8323 0.429
D 546 7.4% 54.81 76.19% -0.383 0.4594 0.247
E 282 12.88% 39.3 71.28% -0.074 0.5778 -0.171
F 254 16.88% 36.47 69.29% -0.412 0.3475 -0.235
G 433 7.08% 60.07 78.29% 0.065 0.823 0.233
H 444 5.52% 58.97 77.25% 0.273 0.9911 -0.776

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 21 0.0% 29.81 90.48% -0.134
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 28 0.0% 30.64 82.14% -0.14 -0.8707 -0.339
Start of Game Growth 34 0.0% 33.88 76.47% -0.14 -0.5861 -0.51
Unlimited Undo 38 5.88% 24.21 73.68% -0.14 -0.1731 -0.339
Using Tokens but Not Events 384 3.03% 63.3 78.39% 0.226 0.0635 -0.396

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 207 14.25 36.71%
II 271 30.3 96.68%
III 96 34.84 96.88%
IV 24 38.61 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 76
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 88
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 257
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 103
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 5
Lose: Scenario condition 29
Win: Scenario condition 10
Lose: Blight pool ran out 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)