Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -9.728 0.0% -0.36 0.3728
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 48.0 7.793 100.0% 0.255 1.3127
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.5 2.75 66.67% 0.119 0.0267
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 40.0% 42.4 -0.255 60.0% -0.221 0.0408
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 43.0 2.75 100.0% 0.119 0.2943
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 9.234 100.0% 0.139 0.353
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 16.67% 73.58 7.312 83.33% 0.156 2.1746
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.701 0.0% -0.093 0.9958
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 14.29% 70.43 71.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 0.0% 56.0 0.241 100.0% 0.086 0.4906
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 14.29% 62.86 5.398 85.71% 0.309 1.0485
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 20.0% 31.2 -10.033 40.0% -0.456 0.8217
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 9 11.11% 79.22 9.355 100.0% 0.43 0.4197
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 55.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 0.0% 84.75 14.06 100.0% 0.568 0.9141
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 0.0% 0.0 -10.516 0.0% -0.221 0.3958
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 0.0 -20.123 0.0% -0.361 0.5863
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 0.0% 54.29 -11.0 57.14% -0.142 0.6628
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 4 0.0% 51.0 8.648 100.0% 0.174 0.4669
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 84.33 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 16 100.0% 33.06 93.75% 0.193 0.3395 -0.32
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 33.33% 31.5 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 43 6.98% 59.19 74.42% 0.088 -0.5188 0.008
Second Wave 0 8 25.0% 33.88 100.0% -0.056 0.0062
Ward the Shores 2 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 5 50.0 80.0% 0.255 0.7152
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 62.0 100.0% 0.189 0.4935
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.438
Downward Spiral 3 26.33 33.33% -0.32
Erosion of Will 3 35.67 33.33% -0.198 0.21 -0.174
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 2 21.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 68.5 100.0% 0.139 0.4968

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 142 18.25% 42.25 85.21% 0.297 1.137 0.251
B 127 22.32% 39.76 84.25% -0.281 0.4974 -0.576
C 140 21.14% 43.65 87.86% 0.714 1.3683 0.29
D 135 17.8% 44.24 87.41% 0.633 1.432 0.47
E 133 17.09% 42.36 84.96% -0.099 0.5298 0.058
F 124 23.85% 42.19 85.48% 0.022 0.7411 0.207
G 83 24.32% 45.05 81.93% -0.281 0.4604 -0.167
H 89 15.0% 42.71 82.02% -1.061 -0.4124 -0.488

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 32.95 100.0% 0.193 1.0762
Skip Initial Invader Actions 21 0.0% 36.9 100.0% 0.279 -0.2556
Start of Game Growth 25 0.0% 41.08 92.0% 0.279 -0.051 -0.172
Unlimited Undo 21 50.0% 34.1 100.0% 0.279 0.2574
Using Tokens but Not Events 65 8.7% 47.35 83.08% 0.05 -0.0037 0.008

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 38 21.03 50.0%
II 65 31.04 95.38%
III 48 34.74 95.83%
IV 13 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 45
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 61
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 10
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 2
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)