Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 39.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 74.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 4 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 33.33% 34.5 -2.25 66.67% 0.059 -0.0938
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 4 50.0% 53.0 2.978 75.0% 0.14 0.5398
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 62.0 2.27 100.0% 0.106 0.4138
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 0.0% 69.67 6.945 100.0% 0.115 1.0544
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 0.0% 73.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 0.0% 43.0 -2.25 100.0% 0.059 0.4201
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 100.0% 62.0 3.162 100.0% 0.052 0.6088
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 20.0% 44.2 -4.802 60.0% -0.476 1.0178
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6 33.33% 78.33 6.892 83.33% 0.111 2.4223
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 0.0% 61.67 5.205 66.67% 0.082 1.8332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 14.29% 70.43 9.574 71.43% 0.098 2.2172
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 17.0 -4.259 0.0% -0.3 0.5946
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 100.0% 57.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 0.0% 66.0 3.282 100.0% 0.204 1.4776
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 78.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 33.33% 81.33 1.721 100.0% 0.046 0.0829
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 100.0% 55.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 93.0 11.488 100.0% 0.065 0.4626
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 0.0% 63.33 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 3 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 33.33% 84.33 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 16 100.0% 33.06 93.75% 0.198 0.6551 -0.304
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 47.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 33.33% 31.5 100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 29 6.9% 62.59 79.31% 0.088 0.1287 -0.059
Second Wave 0 7 28.57% 34.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 1 100.0% 17.0 0.0% -0.3 0.4444

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2 37.0 50.0% -0.24 1.49
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2 55.0 100.0%
All Things Weaken 4 50.5 75.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 61.5 100.0% 0.283
Downward Spiral 3 26.33 33.33% -0.304
Erosion of Will 2 50.0 50.0% -0.212
Memory Fades to Dust 2 43.0 100.0%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 2 21.5 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 2 28.5 100.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 2 68.5 100.0% 0.052 1.8667

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 118 21.57% 43.38 89.83% -0.181 0.596 -0.222
B 106 24.18% 40.63 89.62% -0.328 0.3757 -0.353
C 119 22.55% 44.17 90.76% 0.391 0.9188 0.142
D 111 20.21% 45.3 91.89% 0.218 0.953 0.597
E 110 18.09% 44.53 90.91% -0.447 0.137 0.094
F 100 27.06% 43.66 91.0% 0.56 1.2673 -0.041
G 69 26.67% 45.14 86.96% 0.064 0.7061 -0.382
H 72 17.46% 45.25 90.28% -0.242 0.4034 0.209

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 19 0.0% 32.95 100.0% 0.198 2.2739
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 0.0% 35.95 100.0% 0.198 -0.8607
Start of Game Growth 24 0.0% 40.46 91.67% 0.198 -0.2238 -0.296
Unlimited Undo 20 100.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.198 -0.217
Using Tokens but Not Events 49 10.0% 47.55 89.8% 0.375 0.4909 -0.059

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28 22.63 67.86%
II 52 31.12 94.23%
III 43 34.7 97.67%
IV 13 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 41
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 48
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 2
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)