Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (6 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
6	83.33%	54.17	83.33%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	1	100.0%	34.0	-2.397	100.0%	0.062	0.1662
Eyes Watch From the Trees	1	100.0%	55.0	0.347	100.0%	0.084	-0.32
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	2	100.0%	52.0	0.395	50.0%	-0.323	-0.6661
Lightning's Swift Strike	2	50.0%	66.0	0.887	100.0%	0.182	0.4078
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1	100.0%	34.0	-2.397	100.0%	0.062	-0.2248
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	5	80.0%	58.2	2.397	80.0%	-0.057	-0.2819
River Surges in Sunlight	3	100.0%	53.0	0.543	66.67%	-0.239	-0.1187
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	1	100.0%	95.0	8.616	100.0%	0.055	0.1577
Shifting Memory of Ages	4	75.0%	55.25	-0.395	100.0%	0.328	0.4525
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	3	66.67%	47.0	-3.648	66.67%	-0.196	-0.2562
Vital Strength of the Earth	1	100.0%	34.0	-2.397	100.0%	0.062	0.906

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	1	100.0%	32.0	-4.039	0.0%	-0.476	-0.1924
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	1	100.0%	72.0	4.67	100.0%	0.152	0.5117
The Kingdom of England	6	11	1	100.0%	95.0	8.616	100.0%	0.055	2.2987
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	100.0%	55.0	0.347	100.0%	0.084	0.3216

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Disintegrating Ecosystem	1	95.0	8.616	100.0%	0.055	2.2771
Downward Spiral	1	32.0	-4.039	0.0%	-0.476	1.5458
Erosion of Will	1	72.0	4.67	100.0%	0.152	2.36
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	55.0	0.347	100.0%	0.084	2.1052
Unnatural Proliferation	1	34.0	-2.397	100.0%	0.062	2.1427

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	6	83.33%	54.17	0.0	83.33%	0.004	-0.6834
B	6	83.33%	54.17	0.0	83.33%	0.004	-0.7792
C	5	80.0%	54.0	-0.347	80.0%	-0.08	-1.0923
D	6	83.33%	54.17	0.0	83.33%	0.004	-0.7729
E	4	100.0%	64.0	7.022	100.0%	0.353	-0.541
F	5	80.0%	58.2	2.397	80.0%	-0.057	-0.8982
G	4	75.0%	39.5	-8.304	75.0%	-0.203	-1.0348

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Unlimited Undo	1	100.0%	34.0	-2.397	100.0%	0.062	-0.3612

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	0	22.37
II	1	30.88	100.0%
III	5	34.39	80.0%
IV	0	37.55

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	1
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.