Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 66.67% 45.5 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 100.0% 42.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 5 40.0% 53.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14 64.29% 51.71 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 18.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 66.67% 28.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 50.0% 33.75 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 57.14% 65.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 37.5% 34.25 87.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 4 50.0% 41.0 2.778 100.0% 0.338 1.2172
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 2 50.0% 55.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 61.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 47.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 54.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 55.56% 24.44 -1.697 55.56% -0.241 0.464
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 100.0% 44.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 61.54% 48.0 23.08%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 7 85.71% 33.71 42.86%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 64.71% 28.94 23.53%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.5 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 80.0% 48.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 14 57.14% 59.5 42.86%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 15 13.33% 42.93 60.0%
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0%
Second Wave 0 13 23.08% 28.85 76.92% -0.099 -0.1036

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8 44.88 75.0%
All Things Weaken 5 27.4 40.0%
Back Against the Wall 2 41.0 0.0%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 3 47.67 33.33%
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 62.0 0.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 16.5 0.0%
Downward Spiral 10 27.4 60.0%
Erosion of Will 6 40.5 66.67%
Intensifying Exploitation 1 53.0 100.0%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 3 28.67 66.67%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0%
Promising Farmlands 9 40.11 55.56%
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 53.5 50.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 43.2 80.0%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 44.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 99.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 5 34.2 20.0%
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 3 30.33 66.67% 0.338 0.4271
Untended Land Crumbles 7 25.86 71.43%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 144 48.61% 36.01 67.36% -0.241 0.5586
B 165 47.56% 33.72 67.27% 0.046 0.7766
C 156 48.39% 35.15 67.31% -0.003 0.6018
D 126 46.03% 35.21 58.73% -0.34 0.4168
E 148 46.94% 34.64 68.24% 0.097 0.6812
F 114 50.88% 35.29 71.05% -0.148 0.5545
G 75 56.76% 37.24 61.33% 0.338 1.0948
H 74 53.42% 38.35 75.68% 0.238 0.8694

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 42.0 50.0%
Start of Game Growth 3 50.0% 33.0 33.33%
Unlimited Undo 2 0.0% 42.0 50.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 35 29.41% 25.69 60.0% -0.099 -0.2264

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 43 12.44 0.0%
II 45 29.94 55.56%
III 70 34.9 95.71%
IV 43 38.84 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 65
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 21
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 31
Lose: Adversary condition 8
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)