Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 56.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 66.67% 58.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 66.67% 29.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 0.873 80.0% 0.026 0.7043
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 100.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 5 80.0% 58.6 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 77.0 6.925 100.0% 0.064 2.2383
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 51.0 6.776 0.0% 0.035 1.5923
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 100.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2 50.0% 50.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.181 0.6239
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 42.86% 69.14 71.43% 0.035 0.1327 -0.199
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67% -0.525 0.021
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3 33.33% 43.33 66.67% 0.028 0.2596 0.189
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0% -0.245
Second Wave 0 8 25.0% 34.38 87.5%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 50.8 60.0% 0.032 1.8099 -0.234
All Things Weaken 3 25.33 33.33%
Downward Spiral 6 33.17 100.0%
Erosion of Will 2 42.5 50.0% -0.245
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0% 0.108
Memory Fades to Dust 2 30.0 50.0% -0.215
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0% 0.181 2.1615 0.497
Promising Farmlands 7 48.0 71.43% -0.139
Thriving Communities 3 27.33 33.33%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 19.0 0.0% -0.525 1.4322
Untended Land Crumbles 2 22.0 50.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 62 53.23% 43.37 82.26% -0.068 0.6681 -0.293
B 67 53.73% 40.18 82.09% -0.088 0.6087 -0.223
C 66 54.55% 43.2 83.33% -0.077 0.3924 0.291
D 61 57.38% 42.39 81.97% -0.074 0.6354 0.124
E 60 51.67% 43.13 81.67% -0.063 0.4813 -0.315
F 46 52.17% 42.52 80.43% 0.13 0.792 0.448
G 33 63.64% 43.85 75.76% 0.102 0.7324 0.114
H 36 52.78% 42.28 77.78% 0.162 0.8266 -0.124

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Start of Game Growth 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0% 0.035 -0.4213 0.163
Using Tokens but Not Events 8 25.0% 31.5 87.5% 0.099 0.2541 0.189

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7 22.65 0.0%
II 24 31.08 66.67%
III 34 34.66 97.06%
IV 22 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 31
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 13
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)