Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
22	59.09%	50.68	81.82%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	3	66.67%	44.0	-1.279	66.67%	-0.155	-0.0405
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	1	100.0%	15.0	-5.931	0.0%	-0.327	-0.1213
Eyes Watch From the Trees	2	0.0%	50.5	-0.186	100.0%	0.216	-0.1771
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	0.0%	13.0	-8.557	0.0%	-0.33	-0.6205
Fractured Days Split the Sky	2	100.0%	45.0	2.275	50.0%	-0.24	0.1141
Heart of the Wildfire	2	100.0%	59.5	2.67	100.0%	0.175	0.5031
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	13	53.85%	53.46	1.045	92.31%	0.576	0.2461
Lightning's Swift Strike	2	0.0%	35.0	-4.717	100.0%	0.109	0.3454
Many Minds Move as One	9	66.67%	59.22	2.414	88.89%	0.265	-0.2661
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	14	57.14%	51.5	-0.379	71.43%	-0.608	-0.8224
River Surges in Sunlight	10	60.0%	54.0	-0.876	80.0%	-0.157	-0.0269
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	2	50.0%	55.5	2.877	100.0%	0.16	0.2754
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	100.0%	73.0	5.566	100.0%	0.088	0.5049
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	7	71.43%	59.14	3.731	85.71%	0.045	-0.0519
Shifting Memory of Ages	7	57.14%	45.86	-0.709	100.0%	0.524	0.6147
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	25.0%	24.75	-6.472	50.0%	-0.528	-0.4988
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	4	75.0%	47.25	-1.451	75.0%	-0.191	-0.2398
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	2	100.0%	56.5	1.413	100.0%	0.164	0.3377
Thunderspeaker	1	0.0%	65.0	4.428	100.0%	0.143	0.1755
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	46.0	-0.48	100.0%	0.087	0.0689

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1	0.0%	52.0	-1.93	100.0%	0.089	0.0699
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	54.0	3.314	100.0%	0.091	0.1045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	4	75.0%	59.75	2.626	75.0%	-0.12	0.1679
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	3	100.0%	69.33	6.841	100.0%	0.324	0.691
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	85.0	14.954	100.0%	0.089	0.9151
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	1	100.0%	32.0	-7.396	0.0%	-0.584	0.6537
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	100.0%	15.0	-5.931	0.0%	-0.327	0.1864
The Kingdom of England	4	7	1	100.0%	46.0	-0.48	100.0%	0.087	1.5853
The Kingdom of England	6	11	1	100.0%	75.0	10.263	100.0%	0.088	2.3357
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	100.0%	51.0	-1.615	100.0%	0.083	0.3175

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Dahan Insurrection	4	1	0.0%	65.0	4.428	100.0%	0.143	0.5412
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	13.0	-8.557	0.0%	-0.33	0.0367

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	3	69.67	6.073	100.0%	0.341	2.4144
Aid From Lesser Spirits	1	73.0	5.566	100.0%	0.088	2.0061
All Things Weaken	1	46.0	-0.48	100.0%	0.087	2.2573
Erosion of Will	1	51.0	-1.615	100.0%	0.083	2.2916
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	40.0	-2.875	100.0%	0.076	0.7619
Memory Fades to Dust	1	32.0	-7.396	0.0%	-0.584	1.6343
Promising Farmlands	4	54.75	-1.772	75.0%	-0.331	1.8832
Untended Land Crumbles	1	15.0	-5.931	0.0%	-0.327	1.7784

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	14	64.29%	52.0	0.361	85.71%	0.156	-0.6046
B	19	63.16%	49.58	-2.606	78.95%	-0.283	-1.1405
C	18	61.11%	51.39	1.919	83.33%	0.065	-1.0242
D	16	62.5%	48.75	-1.672	81.25%	-0.115	-0.9649
E	15	53.33%	52.8	0.749	86.67%	0.35	-0.6148
F	10	50.0%	48.0	-1.534	80.0%	-0.033	-0.947
G	9	55.56%	55.0	3.012	77.78%	-0.052	-0.9569
H	9	55.56%	48.11	-0.996	77.78%	-0.068	-0.9825

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Start of Game Growth	1	100.0%	15.0	-5.931	0.0%	-0.327	-0.7975
Using Tokens but Not Events	2	0.0%	35.5	-4.044	100.0%	0.129	0.0767

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	3	22.35	0.0%
II	5	30.84	80.0%
III	7	34.35	100.0%
IV	7	37.52	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	3
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	7
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.