Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 56.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 66.67% 58.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 66.67% 29.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 100.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6 66.67% 61.83 5.018 50.0% 0.053 2.3633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 77.0 4.546 100.0% 0.033 2.1529
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 51.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 3.024 100.0% 0.022 0.0592
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 100.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 2 50.0% 50.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.193 0.6502
Dahan Insurrection 4 7 42.86% 69.14 71.43% -0.258
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67% -0.507 0.1923
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 25.0% 52.0 75.0% 0.086 0.1268 0.341
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0% -0.27
Second Wave 0 8 25.0% 34.38 87.5% 0.04 0.5016

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33% 0.04 1.7702
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 50.8 60.0% 0.039 1.6147 -0.232
All Things Weaken 3 25.33 33.33%
Downward Spiral 6 33.17 100.0%
Erosion of Will 2 42.5 50.0% -0.27
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0% 0.107
Memory Fades to Dust 3 28.67 66.67% 0.04 1.9162 -0.219
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0% 0.193 1.8981 0.46
Promising Farmlands 7 48.0 71.43% -0.202
Thriving Communities 3 27.33 33.33%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 19.0 0.0% -0.507 1.2473
Untended Land Crumbles 2 22.0 50.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65 52.31% 43.54 83.08% -0.068 0.7091 -0.209
B 70 52.86% 40.47 82.86% -0.057 0.6464 -0.198
C 67 53.73% 43.1 83.58% -0.088 0.4394 0.186
D 64 56.25% 42.61 82.81% -0.087 0.6475 0.131
E 61 50.82% 43.03 81.97% -0.127 0.4566 -0.428
F 47 53.19% 42.17 80.85% 0.174 0.8816 0.394
G 34 61.76% 44.85 76.47% 0.144 0.7859 0.18
H 38 52.63% 42.79 78.95% 0.132 0.7775 -0.031

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Start of Game Growth 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0% 0.15
Using Tokens but Not Events 8 25.0% 31.5 87.5% 0.055 0.171 0.202

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 7 22.63 0.0%
II 25 31.12 68.0%
III 36 34.7 97.22%
IV 22 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 33
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 14
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 22
Lose: Adversary condition 3
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)