Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 56.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 25.0 -0.874 0.0% -0.065 1.0543
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 66.67% 58.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 85.71% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 25.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 57.14% 65.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 61.0 3.027 0.0% -0.142 0.705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 63.33 2.264 33.33% -0.119 1.2671
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 34.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 63.64% 53.73 3.629 27.27% -0.261 0.7591
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 100.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 66.67% 66.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.5 0.006 0.0% -0.082 1.7267

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 57.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 66.67% 65.0 41.67% -0.261 -0.5165 -0.418
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 8 25.0% 56.5 75.0% 0.788
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0% -0.188
Second Wave 0 10 30.0% 30.3 80.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 50.8 60.0% -0.161
All Things Weaken 3 25.33 33.33%
Back Against the Wall 1 58.0 0.0% -0.06 -0.0298 -0.14
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 0.0% -0.06 0.1264 -0.14
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 62.0 0.0% -0.086 -0.0156 -0.19
Downward Spiral 6 33.17 100.0%
Erosion of Will 3 39.0 33.33% -0.041 0.1734 -0.364
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0% 0.172
Memory Fades to Dust 3 28.67 66.67% -0.126
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0% 0.536
Promising Farmlands 7 48.0 71.43% 0.038
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 44.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 99.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 4 35.25 25.0% -0.056 0.2437 -0.07
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 19.0 0.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 7 25.86 71.43% -0.041 0.217 -0.201

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 91 53.85% 42.51 80.22% 0.268 1.4102 0.026
B 102 52.94% 39.21 78.43% 0.144 1.1989 -0.408
C 100 54.0% 40.53 77.0% -0.03 0.8582 -0.102
D 83 54.22% 41.54 72.29% -0.478 0.5757 -0.136
E 89 50.56% 39.67 79.78% 0.23 1.1341 -0.146
F 72 52.78% 38.31 76.39% 0.139 1.1427 0.538
G 42 61.9% 44.24 66.67% -0.207 0.7612 0.262
H 51 54.9% 40.82 78.43% -0.082 0.9106 -0.059

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1 0.0% 84.0 100.0% 0.199
Start of Game Growth 2 50.0% 49.5 50.0% 0.199
Unlimited Undo 1 0.0% 84.0 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 22 31.82% 32.05 81.82% -0.065 0.0102 0.16

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 16 16.77 0.0%
II 32 30.59 65.63%
III 47 34.74 95.74%
IV 31 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 31
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 5
Lose: Adversary condition 6
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 16
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)