Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
82	53.66%	43.17	81.71%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green	23	56.52%	38.22	78.26%	-0.173
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	10	70.0%	35.5	70.0%	-0.222
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	5	80.0%	28.0	60.0%
Downpour Drenches the World	1	100.0%	21.0	100.0%	0.205
Eyes Watch From the Trees	9	44.44%	45.44	88.89%	0.443
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	10	30.0%	34.7	90.0%
Finder of Paths Unseen	1	100.0%	21.0	100.0%	0.205
Fractured Days Split the Sky	8	62.5%	59.75	75.0%	0.531
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble	3	33.33%	55.0	100.0%	0.143
Heart of the Wildfire	11	63.64%	32.0	72.73%	-0.229
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	25	52.0%	47.68	88.0%	0.049
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	66.67%	30.33	100.0%
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind	7	42.86%	48.57	71.43%	-0.029
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	8	75.0%	44.0	75.0%
Many Minds Move as One	18	38.89%	49.0	88.89%	0.005
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	43	44.19%	43.81	81.4%	-0.68
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand	8	62.5%	27.38	75.0%
River Surges in Sunlight	9	11.11%	46.56	88.89%
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine	19	52.63%	42.58	78.95%	-0.201
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel	2	50.0%	90.5	100.0%	0.443
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	10	50.0%	45.7	70.0%	-0.136
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	2	100.0%	29.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous	1	100.0%	34.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding	2	0.0%	38.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness	1	100.0%	73.0	100.0%
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach	3	33.33%	35.33	66.67%
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	24	50.0%	47.79	87.5%	-0.057
Shifting Memory of Ages	18	55.56%	46.72	94.44%	0.386
Shroud of Silent Mist	7	42.86%	31.86	57.14%	-0.229
Starlight Seeks its Form	8	50.0%	33.63	87.5%	0.13
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	13	69.23%	35.08	76.92%
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	9	55.56%	41.56	100.0%
Thunderspeaker	12	58.33%	52.58	75.0%	0.222
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	7	85.71%	36.71	71.43%	-0.229
Vital Strength of the Earth	4	50.0%	30.0	100.0%
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might	1	100.0%	51.0	0.0%	-0.378
Volcano Looming High	8	62.5%	32.0	100.0%

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	3	33.33%	56.0	100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	1	100.0%	95.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	3	33.33%	51.33	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	3	66.67%	58.33	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	5	100.0%	53.2	80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	5	60.0%	62.2	80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	4	100.0%	70.5	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	85.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	1	100.0%	32.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of England	0	1	3	66.67%	29.33	100.0%
The Kingdom of England	1	3	4	50.0%	45.0	75.0%
The Kingdom of England	4	7	2	100.0%	38.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of England	6	11	5	80.0%	58.6	40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	2	5	1	100.0%	31.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	3	7	3	100.0%	43.33	33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	1	100.0%	40.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	6	10	1	100.0%	77.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	1	3	1	100.0%	34.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland	6	10	1	100.0%	51.0	0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	1	2	2	0.0%	38.0	100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	2	100.0%	35.5	50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden	6	8	2	50.0%	50.5	50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia	1	3	1	0.0%	80.0	100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
Dahan Insurrection	4	7	42.86%	69.14	71.43%	-0.157
Elemental Invocation	1	2	50.0%	20.0	100.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	3	33.33%	43.33	66.67%
Powers Long Forgotten	1	2	100.0%	32.5	0.0%	-0.229
Second Wave	0	8	25.0%	34.38	87.5%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land	6	48.33	83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits	4	54.5	50.0%	-0.222
All Things Weaken	3	25.33	33.33%
Downward Spiral	6	33.17	100.0%
Erosion of Will	2	42.5	50.0%	-0.229
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	5	48.2	100.0%	0.114
Memory Fades to Dust	2	30.0	50.0%	-0.201
Power Corrodes the Spirit	4	69.25	75.0%	0.517
Promising Farmlands	7	48.0	71.43%	-0.107
Thriving Communities	3	27.33	33.33%
Untended Land Crumbles	2	22.0	50.0%

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Model (Diff≥10)
A	57	52.63%	44.4	82.46%	-0.14
B	64	53.13%	40.77	82.81%	-0.31
C	62	53.23%	44.06	83.87%	0.238
D	57	56.14%	43.19	82.46%	0.078
E	56	51.79%	44.04	82.14%	-0.334
F	45	51.11%	42.67	80.0%	0.391
G	30	66.67%	44.6	73.33%	0.181
H	35	54.29%	42.37	77.14%	-0.08

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential	Model (Diff≥10)
Start of Game Growth	1	100.0%	15.0	0.0%			0.154
Using Tokens but Not Events	7	28.57%	30.43	85.71%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	7	22.62	0.0%
II	23	31.05	69.57%
III	31	34.62	96.77%
IV	21	37.86	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	28
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	13
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	21
Lose: Adversary condition	3
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	5
Lose: Blight pool ran out	11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.