Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 56.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 100.0% 42.0 1.159 100.0% 0.247 0.5539
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 5.551 100.0% 0.166 0.4061
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 50.0% 53.25 -0.58 100.0% 0.19 0.3057
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 62.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 85.71% 28.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 25.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 57.14% 65.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 100.0% 42.0 1.159 100.0% 0.247 0.8012
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 61.0 5.141 0.0% -0.259 0.8118
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 47.5 -12.566 25.0% -0.182 1.2385
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 54.5 9.666 100.0% 0.107 0.7374
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 66.67% 52.0 6.755 25.0% -0.308 0.6587
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 100.0% 35.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 64.71% 28.94 -2.085 23.53% -0.58 0.5267
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.5 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 80.0% 48.0 100.0% 0.247 0.4473
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 66.67% 65.0 41.67% -0.259 -0.4705 -0.277
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10 20.0% 57.4 80.0% 0.311 -0.4135 0.863
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0% -0.189
Second Wave 0 10 30.0% 30.3 80.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 50.8 60.0% -0.147
All Things Weaken 4 26.5 25.0% -0.044 0.3106 -0.041
Back Against the Wall 1 58.0 0.0% -0.151
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 40.0 0.0% -0.11 0.1005 -0.255
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 62.0 0.0% -0.181 -0.0604 -0.14
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 16.5 0.0% -0.097 0.2713 -0.102
Downward Spiral 7 28.43 85.71% -0.161 0.036 -0.058
Erosion of Will 6 40.5 66.67% 0.247 0.5137 -0.284
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0% 0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 3 28.67 66.67% -0.098
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0% 0.532
Promising Farmlands 9 40.11 55.56% -0.149 0.1869 0.011
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 53.5 50.0% 0.437 0.546 0.518
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 44.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 99.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 5 34.2 20.0% -0.333 -0.0004 -0.226
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 19.0 0.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 7 25.86 71.43% -0.111

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 111 55.86% 38.94 71.17% -0.218 0.6874 -0.093
B 122 52.46% 36.95 72.13% 0.169 0.9972 -0.279
C 116 54.31% 38.39 71.55% -0.271 0.4091 -0.267
D 96 53.13% 39.61 66.67% -0.244 0.6092 0.215
E 104 51.92% 37.73 73.08% 0.007 0.7082 -0.119
F 85 55.29% 36.65 71.76% 0.66 1.4416 0.592
G 52 59.62% 39.23 57.69% -0.334 0.4375 -0.086
H 59 54.24% 38.42 72.88% 0.23 0.9986 0.006

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1 0.0% 84.0 100.0% 0.233
Start of Game Growth 2 50.0% 49.5 50.0% 0.233
Unlimited Undo 1 0.0% 84.0 100.0%
Using Tokens but Not Events 24 29.17% 34.08 83.33% 0.297 0.2735 0.232

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25 16.23 0.0%
II 39 30.54 58.97%
III 53 34.77 94.34%
IV 32 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 48
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 32
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 14
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)