Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 33.33% 56.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 100.0% 42.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 95.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 25.0 5.344 0.0% 0.175 1.1323
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 51.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 50.0% 53.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 5 100.0% 53.2 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 71.43% 55.43 0.641 71.43% -0.073 0.1083
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 100.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 32.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 66.67% 28.67 0.373 100.0% 0.222 0.635
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 40.0% 43.8 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 25.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -3.405 0.0% -0.192 1.2035
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 57.14% 65.0 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 75.0% 31.5 -3.405 75.0% -0.192 0.272
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 31.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 100.0% 43.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 100.0% 61.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4 75.0% 47.5 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 54.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 100.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 66.67% 52.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 4 100.0% 37.0 0.641 50.0% -0.073 0.0493
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 17 64.71% 28.94 23.53%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 0.0% 80.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 30.5 0.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 5 80.0% 48.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 61.54% 64.08 46.15% 0.187 0.072 -0.267
Elemental Invocation 1 3 66.67% 19.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 10 20.0% 57.4 80.0% 0.874
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 32.5 0.0% -0.187
Second Wave 0 12 25.0% 28.0 75.0% -0.089 -0.0092

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 48.33 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 5 50.8 60.0% -0.145
All Things Weaken 4 26.5 25.0% -0.039
Back Against the Wall 2 41.0 0.0% -0.438 -0.373 -0.15
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 40.0 0.0% -0.251
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 62.0 0.0% -0.137
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 16.5 0.0% -0.097
Downward Spiral 7 28.43 85.71% -0.058
Erosion of Will 6 40.5 66.67% -0.278
Intensifying Exploitation 1 53.0 100.0% 0.365 0.639
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 48.2 100.0% 0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 3 28.67 66.67% -0.097
Power Corrodes the Spirit 5 61.4 80.0% 0.537
Promising Farmlands 9 40.11 55.56% 0.02
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 53.5 50.0% 0.517
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 44.0 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 99.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 5 34.2 20.0% -0.224
Thriving Crops 2 25.0 100.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 1 19.0 0.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 7 25.86 71.43% -0.106

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 114 56.14% 38.59 70.18% -0.09 0.7729 -0.1
B 131 50.77% 36.13 70.99% 0.003 0.8241 -0.29
C 119 53.39% 37.94 71.43% 0.17 0.8679 -0.235
D 102 51.96% 38.88 65.69% 0.008 0.8644 0.208
E 111 49.09% 36.68 72.07% -0.099 0.5892 -0.139
F 92 53.26% 36.3 71.74% 0.247 1.0652 0.607
G 59 56.9% 37.34 55.93% -0.394 0.486 -0.105
H 62 52.46% 37.56 72.58% 0.17 0.9503 0.022

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.227 0.4882
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 42.0 50.0% -0.227 -0.7947 0.23
Start of Game Growth 3 50.0% 33.0 33.33% -0.227 -0.8919 0.23
Unlimited Undo 2 0.0% 42.0 50.0% -0.227 -0.2044
Using Tokens but Not Events 25 29.17% 32.72 80.0% -0.227 -0.1797 0.245

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28 15.45 0.0%
II 41 30.45 58.54%
III 54 34.8 94.44%
IV 35 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 49
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 35
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 17
Lose: Adversary condition 7
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)