Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Archipelago (5 Boards)

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
33	57.58%	47.15	75.76%

Results using Spirits

Spirit	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	5	80.0%	39.0	-3.403	40.0%	-0.598	-0.4934
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	6	83.33%	30.0	-6.451	50.0%	-0.537	-0.3388
Eyes Watch From the Trees	2	0.0%	50.5	3.795	100.0%	0.523	0.1193
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	1	0.0%	13.0	-7.976	0.0%	-0.286	-0.5917
Fractured Days Split the Sky	2	100.0%	45.0	5.168	50.0%	-0.144	0.2047
Heart of the Wildfire	2	100.0%	59.5	4.227	100.0%	0.354	0.6728
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	20	60.0%	50.15	2.547	85.0%	0.692	0.3495
Lightning's Swift Strike	3	0.0%	33.67	-5.838	66.67%	-0.319	-0.0931
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	2	100.0%	51.5	0.024	50.0%	-0.218	-0.5046
Many Minds Move as One	12	50.0%	56.33	2.801	91.67%	0.41	-0.1231
Ocean's Hungry Grasp	23	52.17%	47.78	0.023	73.91%	-0.408	-0.6321
River Surges in Sunlight	16	56.25%	45.94	-2.071	81.25%	0.438	0.5589
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island	4	50.0%	43.25	-0.396	50.0%	-0.433	-0.3302
Shadows Flicker Like Flame	1	100.0%	73.0	7.965	100.0%	0.207	0.6117
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves	10	50.0%	55.7	2.836	90.0%	0.226	0.1143
Shifting Memory of Ages	9	55.56%	47.0	1.288	88.89%	0.542	0.6661
Shroud of Silent Mist	4	25.0%	24.75	-5.32	50.0%	-0.318	-0.2616
Stone's Unyielding Defiance	4	75.0%	47.25	-1.526	75.0%	-0.218	-0.2775
Sun-Bright Whirlwind	2	100.0%	56.5	2.659	100.0%	0.313	0.4737
Thunderspeaker	3	66.67%	45.33	1.728	33.33%	-0.357	-0.3335
Vengeance as a Burning Plague	1	100.0%	46.0	0.224	100.0%	0.147	0.1192

Results with Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	1	0.0%	52.0	-0.164	100.0%	0.084	0.0657
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	2	4	1	100.0%	54.0	3.576	100.0%	0.087	0.1007
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	3	6	5	60.0%	62.2	5.726	80.0%	-0.004	0.279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	4	7	3	100.0%	69.33	8.885	100.0%	0.36	0.719
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	5	9	1	0.0%	85.0	16.59	100.0%	0.084	0.9089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	6	10	1	100.0%	32.0	-5.278	0.0%	-0.708	0.5316
The Kingdom of England	1	3	1	100.0%	15.0	-5.853	0.0%	-0.315	0.2016
The Kingdom of England	4	7	1	100.0%	46.0	0.224	100.0%	0.147	1.642
The Kingdom of England	6	11	2	50.0%	53.0	2.816	50.0%	-0.334	1.9098
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	2	5	1	100.0%	31.0	-3.018	0.0%	-0.271	1.87
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	3	7	2	100.0%	51.5	0.024	50.0%	-0.218	1.9806
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony)	4	8	1	100.0%	40.0	-3.349	0.0%	-0.438	1.723
The Kingdom of Sweden	2	3	1	100.0%	51.0	-0.445	100.0%	0.079	0.3161

Results using Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Dahan Insurrection	4	2	50.0%	52.5	4.065	50.0%	-0.086	0.314
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	1	0.0%	13.0	-7.976	0.0%	-0.286	0.0786
Powers Long Forgotten	1	1	100.0%	31.0	-3.018	0.0%	-0.271	0.1753

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	4	60.25	4.401	75.0%	-0.054	2.015
Aid From Lesser Spirits	3	48.0	0.568	33.33%	-0.502	1.411
All Things Weaken	1	46.0	0.224	100.0%	0.147	2.3065
Erosion of Will	1	51.0	-0.445	100.0%	0.079	2.2862
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	1	40.0	-2.812	100.0%	0.106	0.7849
Memory Fades to Dust	2	30.0	-5.308	50.0%	-0.46	1.755
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1	71.0	12.13	100.0%	0.176	2.1976
Promising Farmlands	4	54.75	-0.37	75.0%	-0.278	1.9298
Untended Land Crumbles	2	22.0	-5.155	50.0%	-0.125	1.9776

Results Using Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	24	58.33%	47.38	0.458	79.17%	0.224	-0.4643
B	28	57.14%	47.14	-0.573	78.57%	0.0	-0.7836
C	29	58.62%	47.1	-0.404	75.86%	-0.155	-1.1676
D	24	58.33%	45.29	-1.056	79.17%	0.312	-0.4656
E	24	58.33%	46.96	-0.036	75.0%	-0.013	-0.907
F	14	50.0%	46.29	-1.97	71.43%	-0.099	-0.9397
G	11	54.55%	54.45	4.411	72.73%	0.133	-0.6991
H	11	63.64%	45.09	-1.154	63.64%	-0.38	-1.2187

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flipped	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Start of Game Growth	1	100.0%	15.0	-5.853	0.0%	-0.315	-0.7841
Using Tokens but Not Events	2	0.0%	35.5	-2.815	100.0%	0.284	0.2326

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	5	22.37	0.0%
II	7	30.88	57.14%
III	10	34.39	100.0%
IV	11	37.55	100.0%

Results

Result	Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	10
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	3
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	11
Lose: Adversary condition	2
Lose: Scenario condition	1
Win: Scenario condition	1
Lose: Blight pool ran out	5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.