Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 37.25 -1.283 75.0% -0.119 0.3252
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 100.0% 38.0 44.44%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 50.0% 48.7 4.395 70.0% 0.169 1.1362
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 20 25.0% 30.85 -2.82 70.0% -0.216 0.0233
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 11 54.55% 42.91 0.34 100.0% 0.084 0.1994
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 86.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 21 23.81% 52.14 9.245 80.95% 0.454 0.6761
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 19 47.37% 27.47 -1.864 68.42% -0.186 0.1417
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 33.33% 53.08 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 42.86% 63.57 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 17 47.06% 48.94 -12.861 41.18% -0.418 1.6424
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 29.0 -1.464 66.67% -0.186 0.3684
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 50.0% 43.75 -1.579 50.0% -0.391 0.7109
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 6.63 45.45% 0.068 1.5344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 50.0% 59.75 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 11 27.27% 33.91 3.698 63.64% 0.226 0.6885
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 90.91% 49.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 67.0 85.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 61.54% 76.46 -4.787 69.23% -0.244 0.7228
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13 30.77% 39.0 2.17 100.0% 0.244 0.2801
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 66.67% 42.33 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 5.691 100.0% 0.116 0.8147
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 30.77% 63.85 61.54%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 38.33 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 9 55.56% 38.56 1.542 88.89% 0.222 1.0616
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 38.46%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.084 0.1355
Blitz 0 6 50.0% 62.67 100.0% 0.118 0.3188 0.254
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 33.33% 59.8 60.0% -1.111
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0% -0.052 0.793
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67% 0.226 1.2974
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 20.37% 45.96 64.81% 0.504 -0.2208 0.163
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 22.75 25.0% -0.4
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% 0.836
Second Wave 0 40 32.5% 32.0 87.5%
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 54.6 100.0% 0.179 1.2341

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 43.55 72.73% -0.253 -0.1141 0.335
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33% -0.249 -0.3078 -0.143
All Things Weaken 21 37.38 61.9% 0.169 0.5234 0.323
Attenuated Essence 6 46.0 66.67% 0.196
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.681
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 38.75 75.0% -0.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 34.0 50.0% -0.327
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 31.33 75.0% 0.333 0.7016
Downward Spiral 12 38.67 66.67% -0.068 0.1284 -0.206
Erosion of Will 8 58.75 75.0% 0.515
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% 0.373
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.428
Memory Fades to Dust 20 39.1 60.0% 0.084 0.3954 -0.779
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 39.0 50.0% 0.127
Promising Farmlands 11 41.55 72.73% -0.023
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.0 100.0% 0.068 0.1769
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 54.5 75.0% 0.132
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 50.2 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.273
Thriving Communities 15 35.27 73.33% 0.236 0.5688 -0.416
Unnatural Proliferation 15 44.67 73.33% 0.223
Untended Land Crumbles 9 44.0 55.56% -0.106

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 311 34.56% 33.89 71.7% -0.786 0.1186 -0.19
B 311 34.78% 34.88 72.03% 0.384 1.2122 -0.346
C 341 39.64% 37.56 71.55% 0.235 0.915 0.262
D 312 34.98% 35.32 75.64% -0.1 0.7529 -0.212
E 299 37.37% 36.32 76.25% -0.132 0.5695 0.146
F 216 41.98% 37.44 73.15% -0.428 0.3531 -0.113
G 175 32.56% 34.78 77.14% -0.362 0.4102 0.048
H 186 45.95% 41.11 80.11% 1.214 1.982 0.38

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13 0.0% 15.15 46.15%
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 20.0% 5.75 8.33% -0.274 0.1674 -0.459
Skip Initial Invader Actions 18 0.0% 48.61 72.22% -0.244 -0.8065 0.832
Start of Game Growth 21 0.0% 53.19 85.71% -0.244 -0.783 0.832
Unlimited Undo 41 36.11% 29.59 56.1% -0.6
Using Tokens but Not Events 83 20.78% 36.05 90.36% 0.378 0.355 0.599

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 101 16.23 3.96%
II 156 30.54 80.77%
III 199 34.77 93.97%
IV 85 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 182
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 117
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 83
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 54
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 23
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 39
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)