Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 50.0% 40.83 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 100.0% 38.0 44.44%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 50.0% 48.7 5.436 70.0% 0.17 1.2893
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 27.5 -9.399 0.0% -0.25 1.6982
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 18.75% 32.19 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 4.942 86.67% 0.113 0.1399
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 29.41% 50.71 6.539 76.47% 0.101 0.3886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 14 35.71% 28.93 -3.673 71.43% -0.138 0.1862
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 33.33% 53.08 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 42.86% 63.57 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 6.703 64.29% 0.196 1.3766
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 16 50.0% 52.0 -4.844 43.75% -0.339 1.6027
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 71.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 21 76.19% 41.71 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 12 50.0% 59.75 -6.966 33.33% -0.277 1.1094
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 11 27.27% 33.91 5.886 63.64% 0.134 0.4117
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 90.91% 49.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 67.0 85.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 66.67% 82.83 14.625 75.0% 0.216 1.2366
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 20.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 66.67% 42.33 -2.306 83.33% -0.147 0.2705
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 7.203 100.0% 0.186 0.8908
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 30.77% 63.85 14.625 61.54% 0.216 1.2065
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 36.2 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 5 20.0% 35.8 3.627 80.0% 0.221 1.1695
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 -2.867 38.46% -0.328 -0.0475
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.235
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 33.33% 59.8 60.0% -1.131
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67% 0.289 1.1456
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 50 22.0% 45.86 62.0% 0.216 -0.5552 0.11
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 22.75 25.0% -0.328 0.6064 -0.413
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% -0.138 -0.0418 0.82
Second Wave 0 40 32.5% 32.0 87.5% 0.243 0.3283
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0% 0.088 0.8761
Ward the Shores 2 4 0.0% 52.0 100.0% 0.365 1.3969

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 50.0 88.89% 0.335
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 42.73 63.64% -0.139
All Things Weaken 21 37.38 61.9% 0.917 1.2247 0.305
Attenuated Essence 6 46.0 66.67% -0.328 -0.2962 0.203
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.71
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 38.75 75.0% -0.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 34.0 50.0% -0.327
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 31.33 75.0% 0.196 0.5721
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% -0.233
Erosion of Will 8 58.75 75.0% 0.515
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% 0.357
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.408
Memory Fades to Dust 19 39.47 57.89% 0.196 0.4885 -0.744
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 39.0 50.0% -0.098 0.0629 0.102
Promising Farmlands 11 41.55 72.73% 0.316 0.6117 -0.032
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 30.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 54.5 75.0% 0.131
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 50.2 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.292
Thriving Communities 12 33.58 66.67% -0.403
Unnatural Proliferation 15 44.67 73.33% 0.101 0.2702 0.235
Untended Land Crumbles 9 44.0 55.56% -0.088

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 291 34.89% 34.5 72.85% -0.78 0.3625 -0.184
B 292 35.0% 35.11 72.26% -0.15 0.9049 -0.31
C 326 40.57% 37.94 71.78% -0.35 0.5384 0.266
D 293 34.51% 35.6 76.11% -0.016 1.0382 -0.268
E 284 37.23% 36.49 76.76% 0.293 1.1974 0.095
F 206 42.08% 38.13 74.76% 0.22 1.2245 -0.031
G 162 30.19% 35.38 79.01% -0.019 0.9494 0.035
H 172 45.61% 41.06 79.07% 0.774 1.7672 0.373

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 13 0.0% 15.15 46.15% -0.106 0.5572
Not Using Events or Tokens 12 20.0% 5.75 8.33% -0.316 0.1778 -0.458
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 0.0% 51.47 76.47% -0.675 -1.2972 0.813
Start of Game Growth 20 0.0% 55.85 90.0% 0.813
Unlimited Undo 41 36.11% 29.59 56.1% -0.591 -0.6861 -0.679
Using Tokens but Not Events 81 21.33% 36.19 90.12% 0.262 0.3374 0.616

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 94 16.77 4.26%
II 144 30.59 81.94%
III 189 34.74 93.65%
IV 83 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 173
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 109
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 81
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 49
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 22
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 13
Lose: Blight pool ran out 35
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)