Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 39.0 2.157 100.0% 0.166 0.5796
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 30.0 -2.4 66.67% -0.248 -0.2063
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 66.0 9.542 100.0% 0.039 0.0212
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 0.0% 52.67 1.505 100.0% 0.093 0.1064
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 0.0% 57.5 6.488 100.0% 0.051 0.3347
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 60.0% 44.2 3.068 60.0% 0.051 0.4102
The Kingdom of England 0 1 1 100.0% 37.0 -1.478 100.0% 0.071 0.401
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 59.0 11.177 100.0% 0.103 0.62
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.066 100.0% 0.043 1.0167
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 48.67 5.797 66.67% -0.13 1.3651
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 2.894 20.0% -0.509 1.5616
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4 75.0% 56.0 10.588 50.0% -0.061 2.1826
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 50.0% 41.0 4.186 50.0% -0.349 1.8495
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 81.25% 39.06 3.232 37.5% -0.8 1.3604
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 42.0 2.063 100.0% 0.15 0.3873
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 44.0 5.178 100.0% 0.036 0.3266
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 100.0% 22.0 -2.137 0.0% -0.323 0.7995
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 9.0 -8.567 0.0% -0.449 0.3304

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 56.5 4.788 100.0% 0.057 0.457
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 -0.585 100.0% 0.069 0.3427
Elemental Invocation 1 1 0.0% 37.0 0.512 100.0% 0.03 0.5329
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6 16.67% 45.67 1.412 83.33% 0.019 0.3843
Second Wave 0 7 42.86% 44.43 2.673 71.43% -0.215 0.2147
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 61.0 7.376 100.0% 0.065 1.0969

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2 41.0 3.143 100.0% 0.304 2.3731
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 45.75 0.941 75.0% -0.15 1.7627
All Things Weaken 5 22.6 -6.093 0.0% -1.023 1.136
Back Against the Wall 2 33.5 -3.142 50.0% -0.408 1.6786
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2 32.5 -1.46 100.0% 0.416 2.6379
Downward Spiral 2 36.0 3.541 50.0% -0.105 1.917
Erosion of Will 1 22.0 -2.137 0.0% -0.323 1.8847
Memory Fades to Dust 2 28.5 -2.172 0.0% -0.329 1.8859
Power Corrodes the Spirit 6 40.67 -0.718 33.33% -0.787 1.2345
Promising Farmlands 2 22.0 -2.198 0.0% -0.109 2.099
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 2.382 100.0% 0.22 0.6311
Unnatural Proliferation 6 54.17 9.055 66.67% 0.784 2.8648
Untended Land Crumbles 2 21.5 -2.451 0.0% -0.109 1.9931

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 51 54.0% 36.9 -1.05 62.75% -0.38 -1.0674
B 47 34.78% 39.34 0.514 78.72% 0.385 -0.3991
C 54 50.0% 37.93 -0.486 62.96% -0.527 -1.5394
D 47 36.96% 37.36 -1.961 82.98% 0.607 -0.1706
E 38 70.27% 39.66 2.038 57.89% 0.137 -0.7575
F 30 63.33% 34.53 -1.045 46.67% -0.503 -1.3442
G 22 40.91% 40.23 1.428 77.27% 0.042 -0.7904
H 27 40.74% 39.59 0.643 77.78% 0.267 -0.5718

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 31.0 -2.344 100.0% 0.024 2.0769
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 31.0 -5.958 0.0% -0.41 -0.1956
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 31.5 -1.368 100.0% 0.082 -0.6043
Start of Game Growth 3 0.0% 30.33 -1.834 100.0% 0.203 -0.2657
Unlimited Undo 1 0.0% 63.0 5.792 100.0% 0.023 -0.3997
Using Tokens but Not Events 9 62.5% 45.67 3.49 55.56% -0.239 -0.2901

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 14 22.37 7.14%
II 28 30.88 64.29%
III 27 34.39 92.59%
IV 10 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 16
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10
Lose: Adversary condition 12
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)