Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 35.67 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 100.0% 39.8 6.253 60.0% 0.13 0.8624
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 9 22.22% 32.0 5.468 66.67% 0.43 0.5279
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 45.45% 47.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 12 33.33% 53.67 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 57.14% 48.14 12.699 71.43% 0.331 0.3938
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 8 37.5% 30.5 -7.072 62.5% -0.131 0.045
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 52.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 66.67% 69.33 7.264 58.33% 0.086 2.1049
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 71.5 5.074 100.0% 0.169 1.2569
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 80.0% 43.8 45.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 75.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 26.6 -9.684 60.0% -0.375 0.0295
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 54.0 5.439 100.0% 0.096 0.4283
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 75.0% 51.25 11.261 75.0% 0.442 1.1823
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7 85.71% 86.86 11.729 85.71% 0.516 1.7935
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 38.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 -0.293 84.62% 0.044 0.2758
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 36.36% 66.45 8.128 63.64% 0.226 1.0307
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 36.2 1.812 100.0% 0.403 0.4454
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 45.45% 40.55 -3.038 45.45% -0.285 0.0071
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 -8.577 0.0% -0.258 1.1748
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.112
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 65.42 75.0% -0.562
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 9 11.11% 29.44 88.89% 0.216 0.9474
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 39 28.21% 48.56 61.54% 0.344 -0.262 0.139
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 50.0% 33.5 50.0% 0.172 0.6603 -0.435
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 150.33 100.0% 0.722
Second Wave 0 37 29.73% 32.59 89.19%
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 42.5 100.0% 0.214 0.7767
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 52.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 50.0 88.89% 0.441 0.7123 0.252
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 41.3 60.0% -0.362 -0.3234 -0.135
All Things Weaken 15 36.53 53.33% 0.412 0.8722 0.38
Attenuated Essence 2 76.0 100.0% 0.226 0.4315 0.141
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.683
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 24.0 100.0% 0.215 0.629
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% -0.162
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.478
Intensifying Exploitation 2 61.0 100.0% 0.183 0.5705 0.09
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.467
Memory Fades to Dust 12 37.42 58.33% -0.256 0.2251 -0.854
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.78 44.44% 0.066
Promising Farmlands 10 43.1 70.0% 0.026
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 62.0 100.0% 0.442 0.9761
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
Thriving Communities 9 35.44 55.56% -0.356
Unnatural Proliferation 13 46.23 76.92% 0.386 0.683 0.227
Untended Land Crumbles 7 44.43 57.14% 0.15 0.5082 0.374

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 221 35.07% 37.72 79.19% -0.053 0.7866 0.085
B 201 35.42% 38.69 77.61% -0.459 0.3199 -0.228
C 228 42.6% 39.15 75.0% -0.233 0.4213 0.319
D 202 33.16% 37.45 82.67% 0.085 0.8838 -0.016
E 212 38.57% 37.26 76.89% -0.603 0.0261 0.209
F 142 42.03% 38.45 73.24% 0.608 1.3276 -0.391
G 114 29.73% 39.1 83.33% 0.507 1.2484 0.149
H 103 46.08% 43.47 79.61% 0.119 0.7673 -0.149

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 19.7 60.0% -0.078 0.8053
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 33.33% 9.86 14.29% -0.209 0.1233 -0.424
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 0.0% 61.1 100.0% 0.41
Start of Game Growth 16 0.0% 53.31 93.75% 0.169 -0.1618 0.41
Unlimited Undo 26 33.33% 39.31 61.54% -0.695
Using Tokens but Not Events 66 20.0% 36.58 89.39% 1.3 1.2464 0.492

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 51 21.03 5.88%
II 116 31.04 82.76%
III 134 34.74 92.54%
IV 58 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 122
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 87
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 56
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 15
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 20
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)