Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 32.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 50.0% 47.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 90.0% 34.2 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 64.29% 59.0 78.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 13.75 -5.622 0.0% -0.302 1.6586
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 21 23.81% 31.0 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 53.85% 37.31 -2.305 84.62% -0.092 -0.0649
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 86.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 23 30.43% 54.3 7.509 82.61% 0.232 0.4948
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 66.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 40.91% 25.91 63.64%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 30.77% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9 33.33% 49.44 77.78%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 49.83 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 22 40.91% 42.64 -2.305 36.36% -0.092 1.7619
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 29.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 54.0 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 25.0% 49.0 24.197 50.0% 0.239 1.4884
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 45.45%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 52.38% 53.62 28.57%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 6 33.33% 31.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 14 28.57% 36.14 6.234 71.43% 0.448 0.7659
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 83.33% 50.08 91.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 33.33% 76.78 88.89%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 21 52.38% 60.81 -3.585 57.14% -0.105 1.0422
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13 30.77% 39.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 12 66.67% 41.75 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 16.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 37.5% 57.94 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 7 14.29% 37.57 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 50.0% 40.5 90.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 38.46%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 30.0 100.0% 0.248 -0.3102
Blitz 0 6 50.0% 62.67 100.0% 0.305
Dahan Insurrection 4 20 50.0% 66.8 70.0% 0.232 -0.2499 -0.37
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 66 19.7% 43.56 60.61% -0.371 -1.0279 -0.25
Powers Long Forgotten 1 5 60.0% 18.2 20.0% -0.529
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% 0.963
Second Wave 0 40 32.5% 32.0 87.5% -0.268 -0.1735
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 0.0% 45.5 83.33% -0.251 0.6033

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 43.55 72.73% 0.336
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33% -0.023
All Things Weaken 22 37.59 63.64% 0.214 0.3911 0.317
Attenuated Essence 11 65.0 81.82% 0.232 0.284 1.442
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.676
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 33.6 60.0% -0.438
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 34.67 33.33% -0.551
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 28.29 64.29%
Downward Spiral 14 40.21 64.29% -0.156
Erosion of Will 9 52.22 66.67% 0.222
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% 0.552
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.448
Memory Fades to Dust 22 38.0 63.64% 0.232 0.4665 -0.863
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 35.53 40.0% 0.087
Promising Farmlands 11 41.55 72.73% -0.002
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 37.0 100.0% 0.248 0.3134
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 44.71 57.14% -0.493
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 46.67 83.33% -0.398 -0.9987 -0.162
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.286
Thriving Communities 16 35.38 68.75% 0.097 0.3226 -0.591
Thriving Crops 1 38.0 0.0% -0.142
Unnatural Proliferation 19 43.47 78.95% 0.329
Untended Land Crumbles 10 48.2 60.0% 0.218

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 383 33.15% 32.43 66.32% -0.209 0.7093 -0.354
B 392 33.78% 32.6 65.82% -0.092 0.7493 -0.268
C 421 37.72% 34.78 66.51% -0.474 0.2096 -0.049
D 388 33.24% 33.77 70.88% 0.365 1.2078 -0.127
E 339 37.09% 36.17 74.63% -0.294 0.3574 0.257
F 255 41.83% 36.27 70.59% -0.075 0.6851 -0.119
G 201 32.31% 34.03 75.12% 0.579 1.337 0.02
H 212 43.81% 40.54 80.19% 0.219 0.9377 0.611

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 24 0.0% 8.33 25.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 26 21.43% 5.15 11.54% -0.495 -0.01 -0.339
Skip Initial Invader Actions 23 0.0% 51.35 69.57% 0.964
Start of Game Growth 26 0.0% 54.73 80.77% 0.964
Unlimited Undo 49 30.95% 26.53 48.98% -0.816 -0.8492 -0.503
Using Tokens but Not Events 115 20.39% 34.3 80.0% -0.507 -0.6699 0.464

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 146 14.25 3.42%
II 182 30.3 79.67%
III 227 34.84 93.39%
IV 95 38.61 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 205
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 133
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 93
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 94
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)