Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 35.67 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 55.0 2.355 0.0% -0.462 1.8093
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 28.57% 29.57 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 45.45% 47.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 12 33.33% 53.67 3.378 75.0% -0.257 0.1095
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 40.0 -1.472 0.0% -0.643 0.8038
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 42.86% 34.86 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 52.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 72.73% 68.91 23.118 54.55% 0.058 2.6209
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 92.0 11.469 100.0% 0.032 2.1469
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 80.0% 43.8 45.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 75.63 5.219 50.0% -0.085 2.0896
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 3.317 100.0% 0.219 0.1257
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 99.0 12.393 66.67% -0.283 1.2742
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 1.423 100.0% 0.072 0.2429
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 38.67 2.334 100.0% 0.258 0.4773
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 45.45% 47.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 33.33% 61.0 8.249 55.56% 0.139 1.2972
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 37.5% 45.25 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 56.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 22.934 100.0% 0.204 2.1747

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.139 0.5818 0.147
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 65.42 75.0% -0.529 -0.4315 -0.619
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 8 12.5% 28.5 87.5%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 24.24% 45.73 57.58% -0.363 -0.1319 -0.44
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 150.33 100.0% 0.204 -0.0319 0.633
Second Wave 0 37 29.73% 32.59 89.19% 0.648 1.3407
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 52.5 100.0% 0.062 0.9432

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 48.38 87.5% 0.166 2.1371 0.145
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 43.56 66.67% 0.107 1.8842 -0.172
All Things Weaken 14 34.36 50.0% 0.33
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.661
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% 0.062 2.0231 -0.125
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.306
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.328
Memory Fades to Dust 10 39.1 70.0% -0.441 1.6995 -0.362
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.78 44.44% -0.224 1.7569 0.111
Promising Farmlands 10 43.1 70.0% 0.146 2.1681 0.028
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
Thriving Communities 9 35.44 55.56% -0.346 1.7128 -0.381
Unnatural Proliferation 10 46.0 70.0% 0.206
Untended Land Crumbles 6 39.83 50.0% -0.352 1.6817 -0.048

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 197 35.11% 38.23 81.73% -0.62 0.1164 -0.322
B 178 37.65% 39.44 80.9% -0.01 0.6873 -0.144
C 204 42.5% 39.81 77.94% -0.038 0.4319 -0.155
D 183 32.58% 38.28 85.25% 0.491 1.2001 0.232
E 182 38.33% 38.53 80.22% 0.297 0.8417 0.337
F 122 40.68% 38.98 74.59% -0.469 0.1931 -0.25
G 98 28.42% 39.88 84.69% 0.354 0.9848 0.222
H 84 46.99% 45.04 83.33% 0.025 0.6894 0.097

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 21.89 66.67% -0.549 1.6797
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 50.0% 13.8 20.0% -0.549 -0.3227 -0.401
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 0.0% 61.1 100.0% 0.139 -0.8415 0.384
Start of Game Growth 15 0.0% 53.47 93.33% 0.139 -0.3181 0.384
Unlimited Undo 26 33.33% 39.31 61.54% -0.677
Using Tokens but Not Events 58 15.38% 32.47 87.93% 0.46 0.6156 -0.16

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 34 22.65 8.82%
II 106 31.08 81.13%
III 118 34.66 92.37%
IV 57 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 77
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 18
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)