Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 32.8 -1.279 60.0% -0.249 0.117
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 90.0% 34.2 -6.483 40.0% -0.202 0.5637
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 54.55% 49.18 72.73%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 20 25.0% 30.85 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 58.33% 40.42 -0.613 91.67% -0.152 -0.0428
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 86.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 21 23.81% 52.14 80.95%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 19 47.37% 27.47 68.42%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 33.33% 53.08 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 8 37.5% 55.63 -3.728 87.5% -0.157 0.4221
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 45.0% 43.05 -3.031 35.0% -0.329 1.6531
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 29.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 54.0 27.458 60.0% 0.29 1.2771
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 45.45%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 19 57.89% 47.58 0.332 21.05% -0.893 0.5287
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 50.0% 30.5 -3.932 50.0% -0.365 -0.2263
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 12 25.0% 35.08 7.835 66.67% 0.291 0.6765
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 83.33% 50.08 11.04 91.67% 0.313 0.7009
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 67.0 85.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 15 60.0% 72.6 7.821 66.67% -0.037 1.0155
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13 30.77% 39.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 80.0% 41.0 3.093 90.0% 0.295 0.6714
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 50.0% 24.5 -6.345 50.0% -0.177 0.4105
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 15 33.33% 55.33 -13.182 53.33% -0.445 0.4997
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 38.33 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 50.0% 40.5 90.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 38.46%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0%
Blitz 0 6 50.0% 62.67 100.0% 0.223
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 33.33% 59.8 60.0% -0.993
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 57 21.05% 45.21 63.16% -0.154 -0.7358 0.085
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 22.75 25.0% -0.345
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% 0.957
Second Wave 0 40 32.5% 32.0 87.5% 0.36 0.4393
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 54.6 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 43.55 72.73% 0.337
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33% -0.052
All Things Weaken 21 37.38 61.9% 0.279
Attenuated Essence 6 46.0 66.67% 0.316
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.624
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 33.6 60.0% -0.152 0.0827 -0.292
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 34.67 33.33% -0.114 0.0464 -0.448
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 28.29 64.29% -0.365 0.0105
Downward Spiral 12 38.67 66.67% -0.168
Erosion of Will 8 58.75 75.0% 0.566
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% 0.5
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.443
Memory Fades to Dust 21 38.48 61.9% 0.497 0.6795 -0.785
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 35.53 40.0% -0.339 -0.1267 0.096
Promising Farmlands 11 41.55 72.73% -0.004
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 44.71 57.14% -0.489 -0.1054 -0.37
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 46.67 83.33% -0.191 -0.8675 -0.09
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.364
Thriving Communities 16 35.38 68.75% -0.111 0.2132 -0.477
Thriving Crops 1 38.0 0.0% -0.111 -0.1094 -0.123
Unnatural Proliferation 19 43.47 78.95% 0.295 0.4817 0.219
Untended Land Crumbles 9 44.0 55.56% -0.042

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 344 34.58% 32.59 68.02% 0.115 0.978 -0.272
B 348 35.28% 33.04 67.24% -0.872 -0.0506 -0.305
C 376 39.83% 35.84 68.62% -0.178 0.5201 0.19
D 347 35.15% 33.97 71.76% 0.213 1.0688 -0.401
E 314 38.46% 35.67 74.84% -0.188 0.5002 0.5
F 240 43.22% 36.36 70.83% 0.45 1.2682 -0.202
G 187 33.52% 33.6 74.33% -0.135 0.7451 0.101
H 200 45.96% 40.36 79.5% 0.574 1.355 0.369

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 23 0.0% 8.7 26.09% -0.984 -0.2679
Not Using Events or Tokens 20 25.0% 4.9 10.0% 0.136 0.6096 -0.359
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 0.0% 43.75 65.0% 0.86
Start of Game Growth 23 0.0% 48.57 78.26% 0.86
Unlimited Undo 43 36.11% 28.28 53.49% -0.043 -0.0204 -0.548
Using Tokens but Not Events 98 19.54% 33.57 84.69% 0.513 0.5613 0.444

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 124 15.45 4.03%
II 167 30.45 78.44%
III 209 34.8 92.82%
IV 92 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 189
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 122
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 90
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 73
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 27
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)