Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 39.4 3.161 80.0% 0.155 0.4185
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 100.0% 39.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 2 50.0% 7.5 -4.864 0.0% -0.152 0.8391
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 11 18.18% 34.36 3.748 72.73% 0.443 0.5282
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 12 41.67% 43.42 -5.643 83.33% -0.161 -0.1728
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 13 30.77% 54.23 9.843 76.92% 0.195 0.3924
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 57.14% 48.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 28.426 33.33% 0.436 1.7745
The Kingdom of England 0 1 8 37.5% 30.5 -8.657 62.5% -0.201 0.0642
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 33.33% 51.11 1.213 100.0% 0.124 0.3073
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 66.67% 69.33 15.464 58.33% 0.217 2.2587
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 71.5 8.118 100.0% 0.193 1.2664
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 21 76.19% 41.71 -4.864 42.86% -0.152 1.2494
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 5.719 66.67% -0.116 0.8129
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 75.63 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 60.0% 26.6 -13.36 60.0% -0.606 -0.1649
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 54.0 7.949 100.0% 0.149 0.5352
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 -0.296 25.0% -0.394 0.2243
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 75.0% 51.25 7.379 75.0% 0.252 1.0357
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 8 75.0% 88.5 14.032 87.5% 0.693 1.9683
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 38.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 -0.764 84.62% -0.018 0.2049
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 36.36% 66.45 5.13 63.64% 0.046 0.9332
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 36.2 0.199 100.0% 0.267 0.3882
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 45.45% 40.55 7.084 45.45% 0.138 0.5638
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 -9.491 0.0% -0.298 1.1976
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.114
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 65.42 75.0% 0.377 -0.0655 -0.549
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 9 11.11% 29.44 88.89% 0.092 0.7953
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 41 26.83% 47.68 60.98% 0.08 -0.5642 0.2
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 50.0% 33.5 50.0% 0.027 0.662 -0.359
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 150.33 100.0% 0.701
Second Wave 0 37 29.73% 32.59 89.19%
Varied Terrains 2 2 0.0% 42.5 100.0% 0.195 0.8181
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 52.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 50.0 88.89% 0.138 0.3804 0.275
Aid From Lesser Spirits 10 41.3 60.0% -0.114
All Things Weaken 15 36.53 53.33% 0.366 0.759 0.368
Attenuated Essence 2 76.0 100.0% 0.046 0.1529 0.159
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.675
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 24.0 100.0% 0.272 0.4737
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 39.0 100.0% 0.136 0.3462
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% 0.116 0.3518 -0.176
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.466
Intensifying Exploitation 2 61.0 100.0% 0.202 0.4892 0.075
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.407
Memory Fades to Dust 15 34.53 46.67% -0.575 -0.2389 -0.858
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.78 44.44% 0.076
Promising Farmlands 10 43.1 70.0% -0.003
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 30.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 62.0 100.0% 0.252 0.6513
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.175 -0.1602 0.285
Thriving Communities 10 37.3 60.0% 0.181 0.5437 -0.43
Unnatural Proliferation 13 46.23 76.92% 0.185
Untended Land Crumbles 7 44.43 57.14% 0.421 0.7023 0.407

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 226 35.19% 37.74 78.76% 0.173 0.913 0.094
B 210 34.33% 38.5 76.67% -0.644 0.0821 -0.382
C 237 42.67% 38.92 73.42% -0.417 0.1656 0.337
D 213 34.3% 37.05 80.75% -0.345 0.3664 -0.087
E 218 38.43% 37.62 77.06% -0.325 0.2402 0.376
F 149 41.38% 38.26 73.15% 0.255 0.9251 -0.487
G 124 31.4% 38.63 81.45% 0.213 0.8643 0.044
H 115 47.37% 43.17 79.13% 1.116 1.6862 0.085

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 19.7 60.0% -0.108 0.668
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 33.33% 9.86 14.29% -0.31 0.0695 -0.453
Skip Initial Invader Actions 11 0.0% 55.55 90.91% -0.161 -0.7791 0.404
Start of Game Growth 17 0.0% 50.18 88.24% 0.031 -0.317 0.404
Unlimited Undo 27 31.82% 37.85 59.26% -0.161 -0.1681 -0.644
Using Tokens but Not Events 66 20.0% 36.58 89.39% 0.919 0.9091 0.473

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 55 20.4 5.45%
II 123 31.01 81.3%
III 139 34.76 92.81%
IV 59 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 127
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 91
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 57
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 18
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 21
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 28
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)