Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 50.0% 40.83 2.374 83.33% 0.225 0.5715
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 100.0% 38.0 -1.647 44.44% -0.411 0.4007
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 20.0% 55.8 6.658 60.0% 0.177 1.1758
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 18.75% 32.19 -5.762 75.0% -0.276 -0.0603
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 14 35.71% 48.79 10.586 85.71% 0.351 0.2681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 25.0% 50.81 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 3.677 63.64% 0.087 0.3121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 13.383 100.0% 0.074 0.7461
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 13 38.46% 31.15 -0.14 76.92% 0.654 0.8633
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 33.33% 53.08 7.626 100.0% 0.432 0.7194
The Kingdom of England 2 4 7 42.86% 63.57 10.586 100.0% 0.351 1.0844
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14 57.14% 59.43 -11.225 50.0% -0.474 1.5209
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 4 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 2 50.0% 71.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 21 76.19% 41.71 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 54.55% 65.18 -2.682 36.36% -0.679 0.7975
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 50.0% 25.33 -4.879 50.0% -0.206 0.1728
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 90.91% 49.45 1.728 90.91% 0.271 0.544
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 67.0 6.658 85.71% 0.177 0.8721
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 66.67% 82.83 11.982 75.0% -0.321 0.8202
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 20.0% 38.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 80.0% 50.8 12.658 100.0% 0.242 0.7095
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 13 30.77% 63.85 17.698 61.54% 0.157 1.1546
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 5 20.0% 36.2 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 -5.976 38.46% -0.624 -0.2297
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 25.471 100.0% 0.111 2.0932

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.212 0.0722
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.155
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 33.33% 59.8 60.0% -0.679 -0.9143 -1.145
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 9 11.11% 29.44 88.89%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 50 22.0% 45.86 62.0% -0.584 -1.3579 0.043
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 22.75 25.0% -0.624 0.1489 -0.408
Rituals of Terror 3 4 75.0% 124.5 100.0% 0.081 0.0966 0.767
Second Wave 0 39 30.77% 32.56 89.74% 0.128 0.2083
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0% 0.126 0.818
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 52.5 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 9 50.0 88.89% 0.305
Aid From Lesser Spirits 11 42.73 63.64% 0.071 -0.015 -0.134
All Things Weaken 15 36.53 53.33% 0.308
Attenuated Essence 6 46.0 66.67% -0.342 -0.2676 0.189
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.737
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 38.75 75.0% -0.139 0.052 -0.25
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 34.0 50.0% -0.313 -0.1888 -0.331
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 29.73 72.73% -0.284 0.0885
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% -0.233
Erosion of Will 8 58.75 75.0% 0.449 0.744 0.472
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% -0.115 0.1238 0.36
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.25 -0.282 0.408
Memory Fades to Dust 15 34.53 46.67% -0.723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 42.55 54.55% 0.115 0.2682 0.078
Promising Farmlands 10 43.1 70.0% 0.003
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 30.0 100.0%
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 54.5 75.0% 0.158 0.6089 0.123
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 5 50.2 100.0% 0.3 -0.4409
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.297
Thriving Communities 12 33.58 66.67% 0.416 0.7143 -0.394
Unnatural Proliferation 14 44.36 71.43% -0.256 -0.1109 0.228
Untended Land Crumbles 9 44.0 55.56% -0.19 0.1094 -0.073

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 270 36.43% 36.36 76.3% -0.556 0.4384 -0.145
B 269 36.43% 36.99 75.46% 0.034 0.952 -0.297
C 289 41.84% 39.48 74.05% 0.173 0.9154 0.328
D 263 33.73% 37.17 79.47% -0.136 0.8157 -0.211
E 259 38.52% 37.37 77.61% 0.515 1.2958 0.072
F 183 43.02% 38.66 74.32% 0.135 1.0276 -0.085
G 151 31.08% 36.28 80.13% -0.229 0.6267 -0.008
H 148 46.26% 41.62 78.38% 0.078 0.9264 0.333

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 16.42 50.0% -0.383 0.2462
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 33.33% 7.67 11.11% -0.383 0.123 -0.47
Skip Initial Invader Actions 14 0.0% 62.5 92.86% 0.177 -0.4578 0.743
Start of Game Growth 20 0.0% 55.85 90.0% 0.177 -0.2123 0.743
Unlimited Undo 32 40.74% 35.56 65.63% 0.42 0.4648 -0.718
Using Tokens but Not Events 79 20.55% 36.86 91.14% 0.648 0.6214 0.558

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 75 17.67 5.33%
II 142 30.7 82.39%
III 168 34.75 93.45%
IV 76 38.22 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 155
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 108
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 74
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 30
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 22
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 34
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)