Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 100.0% 45.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 2 50.0% 25.0 50.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 2 0.0% 27.0 50.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 65.0 100.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 100.0% 71.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 32.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 55.56% 45.44 88.89%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 11 81.82% 36.27 45.45%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 15 66.67% 56.93 73.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 13.75 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 28 28.57% 29.79 0.144 71.43% 0.212 0.3737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 20 55.0% 35.0 -1.432 80.0% -0.277 -0.1422
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 41.18% 48.41 88.24%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 28 32.14% 56.79 85.71%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 13 61.54% 49.54 69.23%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 66.67% 50.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 28 32.14% 26.71 67.86%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 16 25.0% 50.31 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 10 30.0% 44.5 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 33.33% 39.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 15 66.67% 46.33 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 49.83 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 41.67% 42.42 37.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 25.0% 27.38 62.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 45.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 25.0% 49.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 45.45%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 52.38% 53.62 28.57%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 11 18.18% 26.73 63.64%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 17 23.53% 29.76 58.82%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 83.33% 50.08 91.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 100.0% 30.67 16.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 33.33% 76.78 88.89%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 54.55% 61.14 59.09%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 17 23.53% 33.94 88.24%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 20 50.0% 41.8 -2.612 80.0% -0.335 -0.1705
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 14 71.43% 43.5 85.71%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 16.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 37.5% 57.94 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 11.11% 38.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 50.0% 40.5 90.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 15 46.67% 39.4 5.573 46.67% 0.243 0.7234
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 100.0% 125.6 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 30.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 37.5% 53.75 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 22 45.45% 68.09 72.73%
Despicable Theft 2 5 20.0% 32.8 80.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 15 6.67% 29.53 80.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 76 18.42% 43.57 63.16% 0.113 -0.4863 0.25
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 50.0% 15.17 16.67%
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0%
Second Wave 0 47 31.91% 33.57 87.23% -0.051 0.0556 0.118
Varied Terrains 2 7 57.14% 41.43 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 8 12.5% 42.63 75.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12 42.75 66.67%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33%
All Things Weaken 24 35.38 58.33% -0.277 0.1968
Attenuated Essence 11 65.0 81.82%
Back Against the Wall 11 32.27 54.55%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 9 35.67 66.67% -0.258
Burn Brightest Before the End 5 42.4 60.0%
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 29.4 66.67% -0.051 0.3297
Downward Spiral 15 40.27 66.67%
Erosion of Will 15 45.53 66.67% 0.243
Intensifying Exploitation 7 50.57 85.71%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0%
Memory Fades to Dust 23 37.52 65.22%
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 35.53 40.0%
Promising Farmlands 12 40.92 66.67%
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 33.0 83.33% 0.212 0.2114
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 44.71 57.14%
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 46.67 83.33%
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 19 34.42 68.42%
Thriving Crops 1 38.0 0.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 20 43.8 80.0%
Untended Land Crumbles 10 48.2 60.0%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 457 32.4% 31.23 64.99% 0.112 1.1033 -0.241
B 462 32.34% 31.69 65.8% 0.495 1.3604 -0.233
C 509 36.48% 33.63 65.82% 0.018 0.7696 0.118
D 467 32.06% 32.75 69.59% 0.656 1.6011 -0.241
E 397 35.44% 35.13 72.04% -0.486 0.2686 -0.116
F 303 39.26% 35.03 69.97% -0.376 0.4983 0.243
G 238 30.74% 33.78 73.53% -0.405 0.4574 0.235
H 259 42.41% 38.78 78.76% -0.001 0.8059 0.243

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28 0.0% 7.14 21.43%
Not Using Events or Tokens 33 16.67% 5.91 15.15% -0.182 0.2923
Skip Initial Invader Actions 25 0.0% 50.28 72.0%
Start of Game Growth 28 0.0% 53.54 82.14%
Unlimited Undo 56 27.08% 25.55 48.21%
Using Tokens but Not Events 126 19.47% 33.34 77.78% -0.376 -0.4034

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 187 12.25 3.21%
II 209 29.91 80.38%
III 273 34.94 93.77%
IV 109 38.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 249
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 153
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 107
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 133
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 29
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 22
Lose: Blight pool ran out 53
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)