Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 100.0% 33.5 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 -4.728 80.0% -0.406 0.4714
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 5 40.0% 29.0 60.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 9 55.56% 44.44 0.818 100.0% 0.09 -0.0365
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 45.45% 47.36 -1.209 90.91% 0.033 0.1485
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 8 37.5% 58.63 8.75 87.5% 0.043 0.4177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 50.0% 34.83 -2.564 66.67% 0.056 0.5725
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 52.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 5.608 50.0% 0.032 1.6109
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10 70.0% 61.2 20.031 50.0% 0.034 2.3333
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 80.0% 43.8 45.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 40.67 -1.853 0.0% -0.498 1.8692
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 44.33 0.321 100.0% 0.162 0.9906
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 54.0 5.243 100.0% 0.047 1.4781
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 3 66.67% 37.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 45.45% 47.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 1.259 100.0% 0.054 0.3635
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 6 50.0% 38.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 37.5% 45.25 5.608 50.0% 0.032 0.7429
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 0.0% 59.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 56.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 126.5 20.031 100.0% 0.034 2.0534

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 12.5% 63.75 87.5% 0.043 0.4565 -0.04
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 8 12.5% 28.5 87.5%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 26 30.77% 44.62 53.85% 0.032 0.3376 -0.532
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 155.0 100.0% 0.034 0.1556 0.215
Second Wave 0 23 39.13% 35.78 82.61% 0.026 0.5921
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 61.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 36.0 83.33% 0.118 2.0206
Aid From Lesser Spirits 8 40.25 62.5% -0.215
All Things Weaken 14 34.36 50.0% -0.337 1.6484 0.263
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.498 1.3187 -0.696
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 6 42.17 66.67% 0.054 2.0467 -0.16
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.079 2.1618 0.411
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.24
Memory Fades to Dust 9 37.33 77.78% 0.09 2.1741
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 44.88 50.0% 0.409
Promising Farmlands 9 31.22 66.67% -0.317
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
Thriving Communities 7 39.14 57.14% -0.36
Unnatural Proliferation 10 46.0 70.0% 0.033 1.9971 0.209
Untended Land Crumbles 4 45.0 50.0% 0.139

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 158 38.41% 37.42 82.91% -0.047 0.7503 -0.001
B 141 42.22% 37.96 80.14% -0.363 0.3807 -0.537
C 169 46.71% 38.89 77.51% -0.355 0.2138 -0.091
D 152 34.9% 38.17 84.87% 0.568 1.364 0.543
E 140 44.93% 38.49 77.86% 0.373 1.0203 0.571
F 101 44.33% 35.9 73.27% 0.005 0.7291 -0.294
G 69 31.82% 37.72 82.61% 0.256 0.9881 -0.336
H 73 51.39% 44.45 83.56% -0.424 0.2882 0.158

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.71 85.71% 0.029 2.1587
Not Using Events or Tokens 3 50.0% 19.67 33.33% -0.363
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6 0.0% 30.17 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 11 0.0% 33.82 90.91%
Unlimited Undo 26 33.33% 39.31 61.54% 0.062 -0.5425 -0.532
Using Tokens but Not Events 34 17.86% 34.5 88.24% 0.029 -0.1271

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25 22.56 8.0%
II 86 30.98 76.74%
III 94 34.53 92.55%
IV 49 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 85
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 60
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 47
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 17
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 10
Win: Scenario condition 8
Lose: Blight pool ran out 20
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)