Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 35.67 -0.025 66.67% 0.014 0.5279
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 11.489 100.0% 0.086 1.4622
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 28.57% 29.57 -1.292 57.14% -0.497 -0.3206
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 1.496 100.0% 0.032 -0.2428
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 45.45% 47.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 44.44% 59.89 8.288 88.89% 0.018 0.4856
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 6 66.67% 46.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 42.86% 34.86 -1.247 71.43% 0.021 0.5141
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 52.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 10 70.0% 61.2 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 92.0 10.84 100.0% 0.028 2.3381
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 80.0% 43.8 45.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 5 60.0% 68.8 10.442 40.0% 0.026 2.181
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 44.33 6.003 100.0% 0.119 1.1243
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 40.5 -1.271 50.0% -0.518 0.7249
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 92.0 10.84 100.0% 0.028 1.5029
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 49.0 3.987 100.0% 0.02 0.2206
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 38.67 1.252 100.0% 0.093 0.244
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 45.45% 47.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 42.86% 48.71 10.442 42.86% 0.026 1.1924
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 37.5% 45.25 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 11.46 100.0% 0.03 1.03
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 56.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 126.5 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 9 11.11% 68.78 88.89% -0.101
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 8 12.5% 28.5 87.5%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 30 26.67% 46.8 60.0% 0.146 0.34 -0.374
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 155.0 100.0% 0.162
Second Wave 0 33 33.33% 33.15 87.88% 0.363 0.9353
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.039 0.7843
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 61.0 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 6 36.0 83.33%
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 43.56 66.67% 0.018 1.7032 -0.125
All Things Weaken 14 34.36 50.0% 0.265
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.71
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% 0.075 2.0382 -0.1
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.119 2.2262 0.309
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.252
Memory Fades to Dust 9 37.33 77.78% 0.018 2.0752
Power Corrodes the Spirit 8 44.88 50.0% 0.322
Promising Farmlands 9 31.22 66.67% -0.354
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
Thriving Communities 9 35.44 55.56% -0.428 1.6216 -0.438
Unnatural Proliferation 10 46.0 70.0% 0.181
Untended Land Crumbles 5 42.4 60.0% 0.017 2.0438 0.181

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 182 35.43% 37.04 83.52% -0.468 0.2916 -0.327
B 159 39.87% 38.73 81.76% 0.214 0.8907 -0.288
C 189 43.32% 39.08 79.37% 0.184 0.7088 -0.405
D 174 32.75% 37.68 86.21% 0.261 0.9876 0.358
E 169 38.92% 38.38 80.47% 0.145 0.7046 0.484
F 110 41.51% 37.44 73.64% -0.54 0.1501 -0.084
G 87 29.76% 37.86 85.06% 0.375 1.0709 0.123
H 80 48.1% 45.14 83.75% -0.153 0.5073 0.157

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 26.71 85.71%
Not Using Events or Tokens 3 50.0% 19.67 33.33% -0.356
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8 0.0% 50.38 100.0% 0.026 -0.343 0.257
Start of Game Growth 13 0.0% 45.69 92.31% 0.026 -0.5966 0.257
Unlimited Undo 26 33.33% 39.31 61.54% -0.632
Using Tokens but Not Events 51 17.78% 32.71 86.27% -0.761 -0.7175 -0.132

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 27 22.62 11.11%
II 99 31.05 79.8%
III 112 34.62 91.96%
IV 53 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 101
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 72
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 51
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 17
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 10
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 20
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)