Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.829 0.0% -0.142 -0.0141
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 32.8 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 50.0% 47.0 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 90.0% 34.2 40.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 64.29% 59.0 78.57%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 13.75 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 22 22.73% 31.23 72.73%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 53.85% 37.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 86.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 25 28.0% 56.44 11.206 84.0% 0.33 0.5715
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 66.67% 50.0 -2.398 33.33% -0.482 0.759
The Kingdom of England 0 1 24 37.5% 25.04 1.313 62.5% 0.104 0.4138
The Kingdom of England 1 3 13 30.77% 52.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 9 33.33% 49.44 77.78%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 6 83.33% 49.83 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 43.48% 40.78 34.78%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 7 28.57% 24.86 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 54.0 60.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 25.0% 49.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 45.45%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 52.38% 53.62 28.57%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 25.0% 28.0 -5.398 62.5% -0.251 0.0682
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 14 28.57% 36.14 71.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 83.33% 50.08 91.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 6 100.0% 30.67 0.325 16.67% -0.383 0.1236
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 33.33% 76.78 88.89%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 22 54.55% 61.14 59.09%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 3 33.33% 32.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 15 26.67% 38.47 0.26 100.0% 0.115 0.1497
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 17 58.82% 43.35 3.406 82.35% 0.113 0.3541
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 12 66.67% 41.75 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 33.33% 16.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 37.5% 57.94 56.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8 12.5% 37.13 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 50.0% 40.5 90.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 38.46%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 66.67% 30.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 7 42.86% 57.43 100.0% 0.245 0.4954 0.325
Dahan Insurrection 4 22 45.45% 68.09 72.73% 0.33 0.081 -0.101
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 67 20.9% 43.93 61.19% -0.176
Powers Long Forgotten 1 6 50.0% 15.17 16.67% -0.307 0.3161 -0.467
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% 1.054
Second Wave 0 42 33.33% 32.1 85.71% -0.004 0.1132 -0.114
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 6 0.0% 45.5 83.33%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 12 42.75 66.67% -0.225 0.0247 0.044
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33% -0.083
All Things Weaken 22 37.59 63.64% 0.332
Attenuated Essence 11 65.0 81.82% 1.386
Back Against the Wall 9 31.89 44.44% 0.338 0.3387 -0.668
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 33.6 60.0% -0.566
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 34.67 33.33% -0.564
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 28.29 64.29%
Downward Spiral 14 40.21 64.29% -0.113
Erosion of Will 12 43.0 66.67% -0.177 0.175 0.262
Intensifying Exploitation 5 50.8 80.0% 0.702
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.436
Memory Fades to Dust 22 38.0 63.64% -0.889
Power Corrodes the Spirit 15 35.53 40.0% 0.157
Promising Farmlands 12 40.92 66.67% -0.162 0.1205 -0.095
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 34.5 75.0% -0.22 -0.1435 -0.196
Slow Dissolution of Will 7 44.71 57.14% -0.423
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 46.67 83.33% -0.133
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.292
Thriving Communities 17 33.29 64.71% -0.826
Thriving Crops 1 38.0 0.0% -0.11
Unnatural Proliferation 19 43.47 78.95% 0.344
Untended Land Crumbles 10 48.2 60.0% 0.314

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 407 32.72% 31.53 64.62% -0.414 0.5912 -0.514
B 414 33.76% 32.06 65.46% 0.136 1.056 -0.23
C 453 37.33% 34.02 65.56% -0.42 0.3142 0.043
D 412 32.32% 32.98 69.66% 0.062 1.0404 -0.111
E 350 37.36% 35.95 73.43% -0.936 -0.1166 0.26
F 274 41.11% 35.3 69.71% 0.284 1.1573 -0.292
G 208 31.19% 34.13 75.0% 0.706 1.5153 0.273
H 227 43.56% 39.38 79.74% 0.597 1.4122 0.54

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 25 0.0% 8.0 24.0% -0.258 0.4499
Not Using Events or Tokens 28 20.0% 5.89 14.29% 0.097 0.4655 -0.284
Skip Initial Invader Actions 25 0.0% 50.28 72.0% 0.176 -0.4087 0.951
Start of Game Growth 28 0.0% 53.54 82.14% 0.176 -0.3379 0.951
Unlimited Undo 50 30.23% 26.0 48.0% -0.478
Using Tokens but Not Events 118 20.75% 34.54 80.51% 0.198 0.1722 0.61

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 162 13.33 3.09%
II 193 30.1 79.79%
III 236 34.83 93.64%
IV 98 38.67 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 214
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 140
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 96
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 109
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 28
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 50
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)