Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 35.67 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 100.0% 39.8 -1.071 60.0% -0.369 0.6126
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 100.0% 15.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 1 100.0% 55.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 7 28.57% 29.57 57.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 10 50.0% 44.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 11 45.45% 47.36 90.91%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 12 33.33% 53.67 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 57.14% 48.14 5.255 71.43% 0.04 0.3473
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 72.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 40.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 7 42.86% 34.86 71.43%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 37.5% 52.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 60.0% 56.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 60.0% 46.3 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 72.73% 68.91 54.55%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 92.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 20 80.0% 43.8 45.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 81.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 50.0% 75.63 6.804 50.0% 0.049 2.1685
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 0.0% 51.0 -0.977 100.0% 0.086 0.0002
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 44.33 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 99.0 12.175 66.67% 0.144 1.792
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 33.33% 38.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 45.45% 47.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 4 75.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 9 33.33% 61.0 6.804 55.56% 0.049 1.1156
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 100.0% 61.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 50.0% 26.5 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 8 37.5% 45.25 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 100.0% 56.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 18.122 100.0% 0.073 2.0517

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 74.0 100.0% 0.049 0.5055 0.142
Dahan Insurrection 4 12 25.0% 65.42 75.0% -0.53
Despicable Theft 2 2 0.0% 39.0 100.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 8 12.5% 28.5 87.5%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 24.24% 45.73 57.58% 0.071 0.1119 -0.248
Rituals of Terror 3 3 100.0% 150.33 100.0% 0.073 -0.2149 0.684
Second Wave 0 37 29.73% 32.59 89.19% 0.371 0.8333
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 52.5 100.0% 0.086 0.8298

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 8 48.38 87.5% 0.051 1.7818 0.154
Aid From Lesser Spirits 9 43.56 66.67% -0.108
All Things Weaken 14 34.36 50.0% 0.348
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.647
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 37.57 85.71%
Downward Spiral 8 45.25 75.0% -0.165
Erosion of Will 4 65.75 50.0% 0.474
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 53.25 100.0% 0.448
Memory Fades to Dust 12 37.42 58.33% -0.393 1.4832 -0.892
Power Corrodes the Spirit 9 45.78 44.44% 0.072
Promising Farmlands 10 43.1 70.0% 0.073 1.9486 0.036
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 100.0%
Thriving Communities 9 35.44 55.56% -0.363
Unnatural Proliferation 13 46.23 76.92% 0.14 1.8945 0.215
Untended Land Crumbles 6 39.83 50.0% 0.071 1.885 0.208

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 202 35.75% 38.49 82.18% 0.173 0.9502 -0.194
B 180 37.21% 39.57 81.11% -0.126 0.5771 -0.065
C 205 42.29% 39.91 78.05% 0.063 0.5905 -0.079
D 185 33.33% 38.18 84.32% -0.502 0.2333 0.111
E 189 39.57% 38.7 79.89% 0.032 0.6157 0.368
F 125 42.15% 39.17 75.2% 0.464 1.1714 -0.122
G 104 31.68% 39.88 83.65% 0.179 0.8213 0.125
H 86 48.24% 44.66 81.4% -0.269 0.3764 -0.122

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 9 0.0% 21.89 66.67% -0.453 1.6227
Not Using Events or Tokens 5 50.0% 13.8 20.0% -0.453 -0.2812 -0.402
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 0.0% 61.1 100.0% 0.049 -1.0103 0.401
Start of Game Growth 15 0.0% 53.47 93.33% 0.049 -0.3734 0.401
Unlimited Undo 26 33.33% 39.31 61.54% -0.701
Using Tokens but Not Events 59 15.09% 32.95 88.14% 0.395 0.5102 0.015

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36 22.63 8.33%
II 108 31.12 81.48%
III 121 34.7 92.56%
IV 57 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 110
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 79
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 20
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 12
Win: Scenario condition 11
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)