Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 1 0.0% 39.0 2.655 100.0% 0.22 0.6306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 50.0% 26.5 -3.687 50.0% -0.335 -0.2935
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 1 0.0% 66.0 8.626 100.0% 0.052 0.0337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 0.0% 52.67 0.012 100.0% 0.135 0.1481
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 2 0.0% 57.5 6.064 100.0% 0.102 0.3895
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 40.0 -0.648 50.0% -0.134 0.2334
The Kingdom of England 1 3 1 0.0% 59.0 8.779 100.0% 0.119 0.633
The Kingdom of England 2 4 1 0.0% 47.0 4.157 100.0% 0.056 1.0236
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 48.67 4.284 66.67% -0.029 1.4697
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 1.794 20.0% -0.475 1.5978
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3 66.67% 66.0 13.957 66.67% 0.22 2.4676
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 50.0% 41.0 3.37 50.0% -0.248 1.9478
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 86.67% 37.27 1.509 33.33% -0.572 1.5866
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 0.0% 47.0 1.988 100.0% 0.06 0.295
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 44.0 3.866 100.0% 0.045 0.3315
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 1 100.0% 9.0 -10.407 0.0% -0.383 0.3958

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 2 0.0% 56.5 4.484 100.0% 0.079 0.4777
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4 0.0% 45.0 1.544 100.0% 0.182 0.5488
Second Wave 0 7 42.86% 44.43 2.767 71.43% 0.018 0.4465
Ward the Shores 2 1 0.0% 61.0 5.312 100.0% 0.078 1.1121

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1 59.0 11.857 100.0% 0.083 2.156
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3 48.67 0.661 66.67% -0.185 1.7328
All Things Weaken 4 25.25 -4.738 0.0% -0.734 1.4361
Back Against the Wall 2 33.5 -3.512 50.0% -0.394 1.6977
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 18.0 -9.04 100.0% 0.134 2.3584
Downward Spiral 2 36.0 2.535 50.0% 0.018 2.0405
Memory Fades to Dust 2 28.5 -1.53 0.0% -0.339 1.8795
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4 46.75 0.974 50.0% -0.298 1.7257
Promising Farmlands 2 22.0 -1.534 0.0% -0.103 2.1107
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 47.5 1.07 100.0% 0.257 0.6667
Unnatural Proliferation 5 58.0 9.711 60.0% 0.679 2.7653
Untended Land Crumbles 2 21.5 -1.788 0.0% -0.103 2.0024

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 40 55.0% 37.27 -1.864 60.0% -0.072 -0.8323
B 32 34.38% 41.97 1.258 78.13% 0.181 -0.6756
C 42 54.76% 38.79 -0.741 59.52% -0.425 -1.5135
D 35 37.14% 39.57 -1.538 80.0% 0.387 -0.4628
E 28 71.43% 42.11 2.523 50.0% -0.158 -1.1228
F 24 66.67% 34.5 -1.261 41.67% -0.283 -1.1968
G 14 42.86% 40.79 0.557 71.43% 0.134 -0.7715
H 21 42.86% 41.62 0.838 76.19% 0.269 -0.6457

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 0.0% 31.0 -9.099 0.0% -0.47 -0.2538
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1 0.0% 32.0 -2.488 100.0% 0.092 -0.5953
Start of Game Growth 1 0.0% 32.0 -2.488 100.0% 0.092 -0.3786
Unlimited Undo 1 0.0% 63.0 6.202 100.0% 0.043 -0.3772
Using Tokens but Not Events 7 71.43% 45.29 2.742 42.86% -0.213 -0.2651

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12 22.35 0.0%
II 19 30.84 63.16%
III 22 34.35 90.91%
IV 6 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 10
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6
Lose: Adversary condition 11
Win: Scenario condition 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)