Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 32.8 -0.01 60.0% -0.216 0.1671
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 39.6 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 90.0% 34.2 -7.075 40.0% -0.112 0.7859
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 54.55% 49.18 72.73%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 70.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 20 25.0% 30.85 -3.451 70.0% -0.223 0.0149
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 12 58.33% 40.42 0.686 91.67% -0.038 0.0492
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 15 33.33% 49.0 86.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 21 23.81% 52.14 4.168 80.95% 0.243 0.4297
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 11 72.73% 47.64 63.64%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 2 0.0% 69.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 66.67% 60.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 19 47.37% 27.47 -3.161 68.42% -0.146 0.2278
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 33.33% 53.08 100.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 8 37.5% 55.63 -7.991 87.5% -0.404 0.2595
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 0.0% 38.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 71.43% 49.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 5 100.0% 43.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 45.0% 43.05 -3.979 35.0% -0.493 1.5224
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 29.0 -0.462 66.67% -0.096 0.3524
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 1 100.0% 37.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 5 40.0% 54.0 5.772 60.0% -0.061 0.9423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 36.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 77.27% 42.36 5.322 45.45% 0.13 1.5345
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 3 66.67% 61.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 13 46.15% 55.15 -11.933 30.77% -0.43 1.0049
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 50.0% 30.5 -2.23 50.0% -0.261 -0.0271
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 12 25.0% 35.08 4.577 66.67% 0.161 0.7226
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 90.91% 49.45 90.91%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 100.0% 30.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 42.86% 67.0 85.71%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 14 57.14% 77.79 20.32 71.43% 0.158 1.2222
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 2 0.0% 47.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13 30.77% 39.0 6.508 100.0% 0.313 0.3758
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 46.15% 45.31 84.62%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 6 66.67% 42.33 83.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 14 28.57% 59.29 -11.933 57.14% -0.43 0.6245
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 6 16.67% 38.33 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 50.0% 40.5 12.017 90.0% 0.195 1.0801
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 13 53.85% 36.15 38.46%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 0.0% 60.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 28.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 4 100.0% 137.25 100.0%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 50.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.13 0.1454
Blitz 0 6 50.0% 62.67 100.0% 0.245
Dahan Insurrection 4 15 33.33% 59.8 60.0% -1.08
Despicable Theft 2 4 0.0% 28.5 75.0% -0.161 0.7
Elemental Invocation 1 12 8.33% 34.25 91.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 56 19.64% 46.02 64.29% -0.029 -0.676 0.124
Powers Long Forgotten 1 4 75.0% 22.75 25.0% -0.421
Rituals of Terror 3 5 60.0% 99.6 80.0% 0.881
Second Wave 0 40 32.5% 32.0 87.5%
Varied Terrains 2 4 50.0% 36.25 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 5 0.0% 54.6 100.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 11 43.55 72.73% -0.17 0.0053 0.331
Aid From Lesser Spirits 12 39.58 58.33% -0.18 -0.2345 -0.047
All Things Weaken 21 37.38 61.9% 0.294
Attenuated Essence 6 46.0 66.67% 0.252
Back Against the Wall 6 28.83 16.67% -0.643
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 33.6 60.0% -0.168 0.0353 -0.305
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 34.0 50.0% -0.319
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 28.29 64.29% -0.261 0.1478
Downward Spiral 12 38.67 66.67% -0.096 0.032 -0.199
Erosion of Will 8 58.75 75.0% 0.5
Intensifying Exploitation 4 46.5 75.0% 0.442
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 6 41.17 100.0% 0.48
Memory Fades to Dust 21 38.48 61.9% 0.475 0.7118 -0.792
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 35.57 42.86% -0.184 0.0338 0.153
Promising Farmlands 11 41.55 72.73% -0.004
Shattered Fragments of Power 2 43.0 100.0% 0.13 0.3318
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 54.4 80.0% 0.146
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 6 46.67 83.33% -0.129 -0.7103 -0.106
The Border of Life and Death 1 74.0 100.0% 0.322
Thriving Communities 15 35.27 73.33% -0.435
Unnatural Proliferation 15 44.67 73.33% 0.254
Untended Land Crumbles 9 44.0 55.56% -0.115

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 327 34.08% 33.47 70.64% -0.353 0.509 -0.163
B 330 34.92% 33.94 70.0% 0.21 1.0272 -0.483
C 359 39.37% 36.92 70.47% 0.461 1.1404 0.155
D 328 34.81% 34.92 74.7% 0.127 0.9314 -0.187
E 307 38.03% 35.7 74.59% -0.819 -0.1505 0.232
F 228 41.52% 36.51 71.93% -0.187 0.6118 -0.077
G 184 33.7% 33.97 75.0% -0.352 0.4736 -0.038
H 193 44.79% 41.02 80.31% 0.929 1.7013 0.538

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 16 0.0% 12.5 37.5% -0.365 0.4308
Not Using Events or Tokens 17 28.57% 5.76 11.76% -0.209 0.1785 -0.426
Skip Initial Invader Actions 20 0.0% 43.75 65.0% -0.25 -0.8646 0.819
Start of Game Growth 23 0.0% 48.57 78.26% -0.25 -0.8316 0.819
Unlimited Undo 43 36.11% 28.28 53.49% -0.155 -0.1115 -0.541
Using Tokens but Not Events 91 18.82% 35.85 90.11% 0.588 0.5298 0.441

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 110 15.74 3.64%
II 163 30.48 80.37%
III 206 34.79 92.72%
IV 88 38.41 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 186
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 122
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 86
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 61
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 24
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 14
Lose: Blight pool ran out 45
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)