Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 4 25.0% 40.5 100.0% 0.297 0.4287
Dahan Insurrection 4 62 58.06% 57.03 27.42% -1.449 -1.7036 -1.333
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 43.5 50.0% -0.079
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.211 1.0672 0.345
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 33.96% 59.26 81.13% -0.394 -1.1655 0.61
Rituals of Terror 3 24 75.0% 119.38 75.0% 0.266 0.3622 0.343
Second Wave 0 51 31.37% 31.78 96.08% 0.529 0.6146
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.034 0.9975 -0.583

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 36.47 52.63% -0.383 -0.2538 0.01
Aid From Lesser Spirits 22 29.41 59.09% 0.41 0.2918 -0.848
All Things Weaken 25 44.44 64.0% -0.5 -0.1929 0.063
Attenuated Essence 5 54.2 40.0% -0.13 -0.0982 0.028
Back Against the Wall 14 41.21 71.43% 0.546 0.5761 0.6
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 8 41.88 25.0% -0.63 -0.4441 -0.323
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 58.5 50.0% -0.568 -0.4974 0.229
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 26.62 23.08% -1.368
Downward Spiral 18 43.89 55.56% 0.241 0.4068 0.195
Erosion of Will 24 40.92 62.5% -0.066 0.1482 -0.354
Intensifying Exploitation 3 59.0 33.33% -0.071 0.1701 0.141
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 42.54 92.31% -0.073
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.79 70.83% 0.393 0.6859 -0.265
Power Corrodes the Spirit 20 49.75 50.0% -0.196 -0.0353 -0.085
Promising Farmlands 15 63.27 53.33% -0.136 0.1596 0.781
Shattered Fragments of Power 5 54.2 80.0% 0.153 0.2413 -0.051
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 51.25 25.0% -0.07 0.3234 0.024
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 66.82 94.12% 0.63
Thriving Communities 28 39.0 67.86% 0.869 1.1688 0.023
Thriving Crops 5 82.8 80.0% 0.424
Unnatural Proliferation 12 37.5 66.67% -0.12 0.0495 0.007
Untended Land Crumbles 19 36.74 52.63% -0.04 0.2181 0.188

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 365 39.18% 37.27 72.6% -0.46 0.6824 -0.387
B 348 41.95% 40.47 75.0% -0.154 0.9014 -0.191
C 356 45.51% 41.96 70.79% -0.336 0.5519 0.087
D 335 43.58% 38.8 67.76% 0.064 1.1177 -0.583
E 250 43.2% 44.62 76.8% 0.324 1.2285 0.093
F 199 43.22% 39.96 75.38% -0.118 0.8859 -0.073
G 175 44.57% 41.11 79.43% -0.162 0.806 0.458
H 222 42.79% 41.41 81.53% 0.862 1.8543 0.614

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 40.0% 33.3 100.0% 0.267 0.7615
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.46
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.46
Unlimited Undo 38 50.0% 48.68 68.42% 0.23 0.1352 0.1
Using Tokens but Not Events 138 31.16% 47.59 90.58% -0.154 -0.0783 1.401

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 119 16.77 12.61%
II 265 30.59 74.34%
III 248 34.74 91.13%
IV 121 38.3 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 224
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 177
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 117
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 55
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 38
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 81
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)