Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 100.0% 43.0 100.0% 0.183 0.235
Blitz 0 5 20.0% 40.2 100.0% 0.439 0.6394
Dahan Insurrection 4 62 58.06% 57.03 27.42% -0.678 -0.8893 -1.325
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 43.5 50.0% -0.096
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.337
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 54 33.33% 58.78 79.63% -0.195 -0.92 0.678
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 0.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.175 1.0811
Rituals of Terror 3 35 71.43% 118.34 74.29% -0.111 -0.0807 0.45
Second Wave 0 51 31.37% 31.78 96.08% 0.059 0.1402
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.576

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 19 36.47 52.63% -0.255 -0.1166 0.009
Aid From Lesser Spirits 24 30.54 62.5% 0.183 0.1243 -0.893
All Things Weaken 28 46.39 60.71% -0.365 -0.0104 0.311
Attenuated Essence 7 45.14 28.57% -0.421 -0.3098 -0.08
Back Against the Wall 15 41.27 73.33% 0.354 0.4303 0.608
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 11 54.64 45.45% -0.457 -0.2463 -0.258
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 54.45 54.55% -0.744 -0.6231 0.055
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 26.64 28.57% -1.286
Downward Spiral 19 43.11 57.89% 0.134 0.3311 0.274
Erosion of Will 24 40.92 62.5% -0.111 0.1559 -0.378
Intensifying Exploitation 4 81.75 50.0% -0.075 0.1952 0.362
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 42.54 92.31% -0.07
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.79 70.83% -0.339
Power Corrodes the Spirit 22 46.64 50.0% -0.31 -0.0154 -0.168
Promising Farmlands 15 63.27 53.33% -0.111 0.2249 0.795
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 54.83 83.33% 0.415 0.5243 -0.049
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 51.25 25.0% -0.103 0.2976 0.025
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19 62.53 94.74% 0.153 -0.46 0.813
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0% 0.353 0.0602 0.286
Thriving Communities 30 46.63 70.0% 0.557 0.8898 0.216
Thriving Crops 7 73.86 85.71% 0.243 0.1567 0.613
Unnatural Proliferation 13 37.08 69.23% 0.189 0.337 -0.014
Untended Land Crumbles 19 36.74 52.63% 0.187

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 393 39.95% 37.48 72.01% -0.466 0.4394 -0.283
B 370 43.24% 40.4 74.86% 0.083 0.9116 -0.352
C 378 45.77% 41.74 70.37% -0.6 0.0801 -0.114
D 358 44.13% 40.36 68.44% 0.142 0.9955 -0.455
E 264 43.94% 43.58 76.14% -0.221 0.4801 -0.06
F 218 43.58% 43.4 76.61% 0.494 1.2749 0.12
G 191 45.03% 40.88 78.01% -0.475 0.2967 0.188
H 234 44.44% 43.72 82.48% 1.061 1.8291 0.973

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 40.0% 33.3 100.0% 0.144 0.5852
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.456
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.456
Unlimited Undo 38 50.0% 48.68 68.42% 0.065
Using Tokens but Not Events 144 31.94% 48.15 88.89% -0.58 -0.6035 0.817

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 125 16.23 12.0%
II 276 30.54 73.19%
III 268 34.77 91.04%
IV 136 38.37 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 242
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 182
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 132
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 63
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 40
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 85
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)