Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 100.0% 39.67 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 50.0% 45.25 100.0% 0.178 0.6009
Dahan Insurrection 4 75 60.0% 57.81 29.33% 0.246 -0.2365 -1.352
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 49.0 66.67% 0.059
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.286
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 66 28.79% 58.33 80.3% 0.472 -0.184 1.169
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 27.14 57.14% -0.263 0.2994 -0.149
Rituals of Terror 3 53 64.15% 111.77 69.81% -0.23 -0.3725 0.767
Second Wave 0 53 33.96% 31.21 94.34% -0.159 -0.0649
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 37.67 66.67%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.461

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 22 37.23 54.55% 0.288 0.3588 0.414
Aid From Lesser Spirits 26 35.31 61.54% -0.471
All Things Weaken 30 44.53 60.0% 0.183
Attenuated Essence 9 42.56 44.44% -0.137
Back Against the Wall 19 43.79 63.16% 0.884
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 13 52.38 46.15% -0.094 0.0896 -0.567
Burn Brightest Before the End 13 50.08 46.15% -0.046
Disintegrating Ecosystem 17 25.35 29.41% 0.298 0.5893 -1.229
Downward Spiral 25 46.88 60.0% 0.258
Erosion of Will 28 39.36 57.14% -0.433 -0.2673 -0.6
Intensifying Exploitation 6 66.33 50.0% 0.178 0.366 0.031
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 42.29 92.86% -0.075
Memory Fades to Dust 29 35.66 62.07% -1.063 -0.8278 -0.246
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 46.04 52.17% -0.165
Promising Farmlands 24 55.08 58.33% 0.503 0.8676 0.432
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 67.71 85.71% 0.281
Slow Dissolution of Will 14 38.21 21.43% 0.167 0.6301 -0.432
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 64.48 90.48% 0.947
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0% 0.3
Thriving Communities 36 43.64 63.89% -0.069
Thriving Crops 8 67.75 75.0% 0.393
Unnatural Proliferation 15 36.0 60.0% -0.284 -0.1623 -0.076
Untended Land Crumbles 29 48.21 58.62% 0.119 0.3514 0.328

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 488 40.16% 37.51 69.06% 0.275 1.1936 -0.285
B 473 43.62% 39.89 69.34% -0.509 0.3325 -0.155
C 479 44.89% 40.77 65.76% -0.317 0.3666 -0.005
D 443 45.23% 40.05 64.79% 0.167 1.009 -0.368
E 311 44.37% 42.39 73.95% 0.018 0.6693 -0.025
F 278 41.91% 42.43 74.1% 0.451 1.2106 0.381
G 224 45.25% 40.33 74.55% -0.111 0.647 -0.245
H 273 43.33% 43.48 78.75% 0.038 0.7565 0.682

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 35.71% 26.14 78.57%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 25.0% 49.2 100.0% 0.34
Start of Game Growth 13 42.86% 43.38 84.62% 0.34
Unlimited Undo 50 45.45% 41.72 66.0% -0.313 -0.3465 0.114
Using Tokens but Not Events 184 32.02% 46.64 82.61% -0.5 -0.6627 0.734

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 182 14.25 9.89%
II 339 30.3 70.5%
III 310 34.84 90.32%
IV 164 38.61 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 278
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 214
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 158
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 107
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 54
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 26
Lose: Blight pool ran out 108
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)