Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0% 0.2 0.3976
Dahan Insurrection 4 19 31.58% 78.58 78.95% -0.293
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.389
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.186
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 47 34.04% 59.68 80.85% 0.242 -0.4026 0.289
Rituals of Terror 3 14 85.71% 112.71 71.43% -0.238 -0.1369 -0.374
Second Wave 0 37 32.43% 30.59 94.59%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0% -0.524 0.0988
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 36.0 25.0% -0.68

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 36.41 58.82% 0.322 0.5649 -0.213
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 26.18 47.06% -0.787
All Things Weaken 21 46.76 66.67% -0.136 0.2563 0.176
Attenuated Essence 3 50.67 66.67% 0.016 0.1223 0.085
Back Against the Wall 11 43.73 63.64% 0.652
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 109.0 100.0% 0.044 0.2539 0.407
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 28.83 25.0% -1.333
Downward Spiral 15 38.67 53.33% 0.116 0.3511 -0.119
Erosion of Will 17 40.65 70.59% 0.087 0.3963 -0.502
Intensifying Exploitation 1 65.0 100.0% 0.046 0.333 0.176
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 12 41.5 91.67% 0.16 -0.3337 -0.127
Memory Fades to Dust 22 38.0 72.73% -0.239 0.0978 -0.363
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 43.33 66.67% 0.133
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.389
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 44.5 50.0% -0.293 0.1059 -0.028
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 68.44 93.75% 0.206 -0.5052 0.633
Thriving Communities 20 37.55 70.0% 0.196 0.5585 0.081
Thriving Crops 3 34.67 66.67% -0.325 -0.5226
Unnatural Proliferation 7 28.71 71.43%
Untended Land Crumbles 13 37.62 69.23% 0.186

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 277 37.18% 38.59 81.59% 0.128 0.8679 0.017
B 276 42.75% 42.14 80.43% 0.785 1.5105 -0.006
C 252 45.63% 44.53 80.56% 0.789 1.3715 0.463
D 232 40.52% 38.0 77.59% -0.731 -0.0192 -0.79
E 193 37.82% 44.79 83.42% -0.28 0.2855 -0.094
F 152 37.5% 37.0 82.89% -1.1 -0.4293 -0.296
G 140 45.0% 41.66 85.0% 0.347 0.9985 0.3
H 165 43.64% 41.16 86.06% 0.076 0.6467 0.422

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.273
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.273
Unlimited Undo 37 51.35% 49.19 67.57% -0.866 -0.8729 0.117
Using Tokens but Not Events 119 30.25% 48.92 94.96% 0.817 0.8067 1.264

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 56 20.4 25.0%
II 212 31.01 80.66%
III 209 34.76 90.91%
IV 88 38.07 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 189
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 154
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 85
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 12
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 26
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 17
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)