Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 37.0 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 83.33% 30.33 2.436 33.33% 0.095 1.0763
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 32.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 44.44% 32.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 18 44.44% 41.17 1.956 88.89% 0.054 -0.099
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 40.0% 64.0 5.055 90.0% 0.174 0.2827
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 66.67% 65.56 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 40.0% 51.2 14.841 60.0% 0.063 0.3709
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 84.75 6.412 100.0% 0.127 1.0668
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 33.33% 73.0 18.316 66.67% 0.045 1.5117
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 33.33% 25.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 20.0% 47.6 11.648 80.0% 0.097 0.6535
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 39.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 66.67% 31.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 100.0% 72.25 5.295 75.0% 0.095 1.501
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 119.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 23 47.83% 61.78 2.024 52.17% -0.334 1.9767
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 42.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 11 63.64% 33.73 -5.903 36.36% -0.443 0.6243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 100.0% 53.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 80.0% 62.1 8.024 30.0% -0.569 1.5511
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 100.0% 9.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 30.33 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 75.0% 75.5 5.752 75.0% 0.052 1.325
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 83.33% 67.83 10.219 50.0% -0.026 1.622
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 50.0% 31.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 20.0% 41.2 -2.369 100.0% 0.061 0.0983
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 72.73% 40.91 72.73%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 66.67% 51.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4 50.0% 93.5 18.316 100.0% 0.045 1.1117
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 80.0% 31.8 30.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 100.0% 31.2 20.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 53.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 85.71% 120.86 3.207 71.43% -0.319 1.6596

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 18 27.78% 79.89 77.78% -0.259 -0.2393 -0.133
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.317
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.052 0.7507 0.16
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 36 33.33% 59.08 83.33% 0.607 0.6482 0.152
Rituals of Terror 3 8 87.5% 101.88 62.5% -0.319 -0.607 -0.178
Second Wave 0 37 32.43% 30.59 94.59% 0.296 0.7583
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 59.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 36.0 25.0% -0.702

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 35.07 53.33% -0.455
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 26.18 47.06% 0.193 1.7683 -0.753
All Things Weaken 20 48.65 70.0% -0.645 1.2332 0.313
Back Against the Wall 11 43.73 63.64% 0.624
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 63.0 100.0% 0.127 1.1358 0.268
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 28.83 25.0% -1.042 0.8012 -1.263
Downward Spiral 11 30.45 36.36% 0.111 1.8096 -0.407
Erosion of Will 15 40.07 66.67% 0.223 2.1233 -0.433
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 42.36 90.91% 0.083 0.5835 -0.084
Memory Fades to Dust 21 39.81 76.19% 0.139 2.0154 -0.425
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 43.33 66.67% -0.497 1.208 0.176
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.317
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 46.33 91.67% -0.519 -0.3085 0.562
Thriving Communities 18 37.5 66.67% -0.561 1.3093 -0.012
Unnatural Proliferation 7 28.71 71.43% -0.595 1.1591
Untended Land Crumbles 12 36.17 66.67% -0.315 1.4993 0.16

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 234 38.03% 38.21 82.05% -0.29 0.4878 -0.119
B 240 43.75% 40.73 80.0% 0.393 1.0965 -0.149
C 210 46.19% 44.16 79.52% -0.176 0.3514 0.244
D 212 41.98% 38.79 79.72% -0.033 0.7016 -0.247
E 174 35.63% 43.16 85.63% -0.072 0.5124 -0.171
F 133 36.84% 38.05 87.22% -0.137 0.5702 0.196
G 126 42.06% 38.02 84.92% -0.163 0.4789 0.17
H 152 41.45% 40.6 85.53% 0.492 1.1371 0.091

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.096 -0.9627 0.293
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.096 -0.3258 0.293
Unlimited Undo 29 44.83% 57.83 79.31% 0.139
Using Tokens but Not Events 95 24.21% 43.16 94.74% 0.015 0.1302 0.588

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 45 22.63 31.11%
II 185 31.12 80.0%
III 191 34.7 90.58%
IV 77 37.97 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 132
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 75
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 26
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 47
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)