Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 37.0 -3.604 66.67% -0.557 -0.0433
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 100.0% 25.6 20.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 32.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 50.0% 32.44 87.5%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 15 40.0% 42.27 0.096 93.33% 0.056 -0.2188
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 19 42.11% 64.79 5.255 89.47% 0.066 0.3144
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 66.67% 65.56 6.938 100.0% 0.042 0.5091
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 48.25 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 92.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 50.0% 46.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 4 25.0% 30.75 -3.73 75.0% 0.021 0.5145
The Kingdom of England 1 3 4 25.0% 44.25 -4.07 75.0% -0.541 0.2087
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 39.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 66.67% 31.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 100.0% 67.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 119.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 21 52.38% 62.52 22.204 52.38% 0.02 2.5574
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 42.25 -3.68 100.0% 0.05 0.7913
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 70.0% 33.7 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 100.0% 53.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 58.14 28.57%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 34.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 66.67% 71.67 5.492 66.67% -0.512 0.7305
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 57.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 50.0% 31.67 -3.133 66.67% 0.024 0.2239
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 25.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 72.73% 40.91 2.132 72.73% 0.036 0.3757
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 66.67% 51.22 5.705 88.89% 0.028 0.3836
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 66.67% 82.33 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 80.0% 31.8 30.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 100.0% 31.2 20.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 53.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 6 83.33% 132.17 22.204 83.33% 0.02 1.8383

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 16 25.0% 83.06 81.25% 0.07
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.279
Elemental Invocation 1 3 100.0% 31.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 27 40.74% 56.96 77.78% 0.1 0.2944 -0.134
Rituals of Terror 3 7 85.71% 108.86 71.43% 0.038 -0.7985 0.112
Second Wave 0 15 46.67% 33.07 93.33% 0.102 0.6744
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 59.0 100.0% 0.023 0.7685
Ward the Shores 2 7 57.14% 39.86 28.57% -0.655

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 35.07 53.33% -0.426
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 25.38 43.75% 0.028 1.7123 -0.759
All Things Weaken 19 50.74 73.68% 0.013 2.0128 0.268
Back Against the Wall 10 45.9 70.0% 0.048 1.9959 0.674
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 27.14 28.57% -0.71
Downward Spiral 10 30.7 30.0% 0.045 2.0077 -0.405
Erosion of Will 15 40.07 66.67% 0.064 2.1708 -0.569
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 9 44.78 88.89% 0.037 0.6529 -0.16
Memory Fades to Dust 18 38.0 72.22% 0.054 2.111 -0.533
Power Corrodes the Spirit 10 48.1 70.0% 0.164
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.279
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 9 54.78 100.0% 0.05 0.38 0.509
Thriving Communities 17 38.71 70.59% 0.02 2.0693 -0.089
Unnatural Proliferation 5 31.4 80.0% 0.019 1.9629
Untended Land Crumbles 9 32.89 66.67% 0.015 2.0415

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 193 40.41% 38.55 81.35% -0.56 0.1996 -0.325
B 200 46.5% 41.32 79.0% 0.064 0.7404 0.021
C 185 47.57% 44.43 80.0% 0.475 1.0 0.354
D 170 44.71% 40.68 78.24% 0.523 1.2496 -0.374
E 140 39.29% 45.21 85.0% -0.132 0.4282 0.054
F 107 42.06% 39.17 86.92% -0.163 0.5264 0.143
G 99 41.41% 39.99 84.85% -0.392 0.3029 0.1
H 120 43.33% 42.01 85.0% 0.192 0.8531 0.04

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0% 0.062 0.3022
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 41.5 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 5 40.0% 31.0 60.0%
Unlimited Undo 29 44.83% 57.83 79.31% 0.079 -0.5519 0.033
Using Tokens but Not Events 52 21.15% 51.23 98.08% -0.337 -0.2937 0.344

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35 22.62 22.86%
II 147 31.05 76.87%
III 163 34.62 92.64%
IV 64 37.86 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 150
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 98
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 62
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 22
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 41
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)