Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 33.0 1.298 100.0% 0.242 0.5312
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 -1.263 66.67% -0.224 0.1903
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 44.0 -0.452 100.0% 0.123 1.0066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 8.165 100.0% 0.079 1.3211
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 30.0 -2.164 0.0% -0.591 1.4516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 26.67 -6.031 66.67% -0.192 -0.1508
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 4 25.0% 44.5 2.98 100.0% 0.707 0.6886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 9 33.33% 76.44 6.359 88.89% -0.095 -0.0814
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 100.0% 50.0 8.001 100.0% 0.151 0.4347
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 11.216 100.0% 0.271 0.6302
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 0.0% 112.0 17.264 100.0% 0.021 0.8463
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 22.0 -10.397 0.0% -0.416 0.8229
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 100.0% 33.5 0.043 50.0% -0.009 0.9642
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 25.0 -8.034 0.0% -0.5 1.5706
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 38.46% 57.62 7.258 53.85% -0.631 1.6125
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 42.0 0.302 100.0% 0.221 1.1229
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 50.0 3.408 100.0% 0.139 2.2803
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 66.0 4.463 100.0% 0.029 2.19
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 8.773 50.0% -0.215 1.6026
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 2 50.0% 84.0 16.636 100.0% 0.18 2.2716
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 26.0 -6.615 100.0% 0.069 0.1574
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 50.0% 31.5 -0.604 50.0% -0.137 0.1003
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 68.0 13.953 100.0% 0.348 0.6384
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 -7.488 0.0% -0.476 0.6921
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 29.0 -4.565 100.0% 0.168 0.0789
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 17.5 -6.951 0.0% -0.647 0.1325
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 135.0 32.86 100.0% 0.101 1.9735

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 10 0.0% 93.4 11.957 100.0% 0.403 0.8033
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 13.239 100.0% 0.135 0.4087
Elemental Invocation 1 1 100.0% 12.0 -3.76 0.0% -0.258 0.2442
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2 0.0% 32.0 -4.361 100.0% 0.11 0.4749
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 36.0 -4.737 0.0% -0.563 0.0818
Ward the Shores 2 7 57.14% 39.86 -1.26 28.57% -0.927 0.1052

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1 72.0 7.461 100.0% 0.143 2.2129
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 34.0 -2.318 50.0% -0.512 1.4009
All Things Weaken 4 44.5 1.017 75.0% 0.119 2.2782
Back Against the Wall 2 29.0 -6.155 50.0% -0.368 1.7193
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1 4.0 -16.173 0.0% -0.694 1.5281
Downward Spiral 3 27.0 -5.979 0.0% -0.868 1.1536
Erosion of Will 3 22.0 -5.025 33.33% -0.308 1.8997
Memory Fades to Dust 1 19.0 -7.201 0.0% -0.389 1.8264
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 37.0 -1.125 33.33% -0.554 1.4673
Promising Farmlands 4 45.25 -0.709 50.0% -0.718 1.4905
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 2 68.5 7.587 100.0% 0.297 0.7088
Thriving Communities 7 27.14 -9.232 42.86% -0.897 1.1908

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 39 41.03% 37.85 -1.274 66.67% -0.15 -0.8376
B 34 47.06% 42.12 -0.986 64.71% -0.47 -1.2533
C 47 44.68% 47.43 1.085 74.47% 0.197 -0.8159
D 33 51.52% 38.39 -1.356 60.61% -0.387 -1.1645
E 36 36.11% 51.83 1.099 80.56% -0.063 -0.9572
F 17 41.18% 49.0 0.699 88.24% 0.206 -0.6343
G 15 33.33% 47.4 0.254 80.0% 0.039 -0.793
H 34 29.41% 52.21 0.79 88.24% 0.639 -0.2004

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Start of Game Growth 1 100.0% 12.0 -3.76 0.0% -0.258 -0.7272
Unlimited Undo 6 33.33% 58.5 2.94 83.33% -0.164 -0.5875
Using Tokens but Not Events 10 10.0% 85.2 8.049 100.0% 0.443 0.3917

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10 22.37 0.0%
II 34 30.88 67.65%
III 30 34.39 96.67%
IV 11 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 11
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 11
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Scenario condition 12
Lose: Blight pool ran out 12
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)