Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 50.0% 41.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 9 44.44% 46.33 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 75 60.0% 57.81 29.33%
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 49.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 85 24.71% 56.41 81.18% 0.26
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 27.14 57.14%
Rituals of Terror 3 68 66.18% 111.96 69.12% -0.05
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 33.33% 18.33 0.0% -0.22 0.5185 -0.334
Second Wave 0 59 35.59% 30.97 91.53%
Varied Terrains 2 25 64.0% 45.4 52.0% 0.167
Ward the Shores 2 17 64.71% 28.88 29.41%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 25 40.88 56.0% -0.123 0.1876 -0.111
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 36.58 57.58% 0.403
All Things Weaken 37 45.3 59.46%
Attenuated Essence 12 36.42 41.67%
Back Against the Wall 22 49.59 63.64%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 52.11 44.44%
Burn Brightest Before the End 24 38.21 37.5% -0.132 0.0453
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 30.09 31.82% -0.123 0.2574 -0.111
Downward Spiral 30 42.53 63.33%
Erosion of Will 29 39.66 58.62% 0.247 0.5848
Intensifying Exploitation 7 78.14 57.14% 0.285
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 16 44.19 93.75%
Memory Fades to Dust 35 37.11 57.14% 0.006
Power Corrodes the Spirit 26 43.77 53.85%
Promising Farmlands 30 54.1 63.33%
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 65.44 77.78%
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 44.43 38.1% 0.326
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 61.55 86.36%
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 45 42.69 62.22%
Thriving Crops 10 56.7 60.0%
Unnatural Proliferation 21 43.52 66.67% 0.312 0.5172 0.125
Untended Land Crumbles 31 46.61 58.06%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 618 37.93% 35.78 67.48% -0.001 0.9903 -0.347
B 598 42.42% 37.37 66.22% 0.051 0.9157 -0.858
C 596 43.29% 38.77 63.93% -0.673 0.0786 -0.327
D 569 44.96% 39.96 63.27% -0.28 0.6642 -0.05
E 392 42.86% 40.5 72.45% -0.6 0.1545 0.4
F 351 38.84% 43.72 72.65% 1.037 1.911 0.56
G 292 42.91% 40.49 73.97% 0.071 0.9331 0.66
H 346 43.15% 44.51 74.57% 0.41 1.2171 -0.046

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 30.57 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 18 47.06% 25.22 83.33%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 12 16.67% 55.67 100.0% 0.258
Start of Game Growth 31 44.0% 47.9 67.74% 0.258
Unlimited Undo 73 42.42% 42.49 63.01% -0.187 -0.1593
Using Tokens but Not Events 209 34.48% 45.28 78.47% -0.652 -0.6789 -0.071

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 248 12.25 7.26%
II 414 29.91 69.32%
III 399 34.94 89.72%
IV 199 38.9 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 355
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 262
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 193
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 164
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 78
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 8
Win: Scenario condition 27
Lose: Blight pool ran out 127
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)