Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 3 0.0% 37.0 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 83.33% 30.33 7.387 33.33% 0.035 1.2121
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 32.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 44.44% 32.67 -1.668 88.89% 0.098 0.0514
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 15 40.0% 42.27 93.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 19 42.11% 64.79 11.03 89.47% 0.059 0.249
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 66.67% 65.56 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 5 40.0% 51.2 14.582 60.0% 0.024 0.3832
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 92.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 3 33.33% 73.0 18.048 66.67% 0.025 1.4714
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 33.33% 25.33 -3.142 66.67% -0.755 -0.1975
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 20.0% 47.6 3.725 80.0% -0.376 0.3017
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 39.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 66.67% 31.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 4 100.0% 72.25 5.226 75.0% 0.066 1.5335
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 119.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 21 52.38% 62.52 35.564 52.38% 0.195 2.7581
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 42.25 -0.571 100.0% 0.128 0.8013
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 70.0% 33.7 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 100.0% 53.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 9 77.78% 57.44 -0.91 22.22% -0.702 1.4728
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 100.0% 9.0 -7.533 0.0% -0.397 -0.4899
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 100.0% 30.33 -4.825 33.33% -0.518 0.3406
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 75.0% 75.5 5.226 75.0% 0.066 1.3045
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 80.0% 60.6 6.577 40.0% -0.305 1.2525
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 6 50.0% 31.67 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 25.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 11 72.73% 40.91 4.555 72.73% 0.09 0.3697
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 66.67% 51.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 4 50.0% 93.5 18.048 100.0% 0.025 1.1835
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 80.0% 31.8 30.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 100.0% 31.2 20.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 53.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 7 85.71% 120.86 13.769 71.43% -0.202 1.7687

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 18 27.78% 79.89 77.78% -0.272 -0.1753 -0.133
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.334
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.066 0.6121 0.164
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 33 33.33% 57.73 81.82% 0.334 0.565 0.035
Rituals of Terror 3 8 87.5% 101.88 62.5% -0.202 -0.4379 -0.047
Second Wave 0 34 35.29% 30.59 97.06% 0.658 1.3507
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 59.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 36.0 25.0% -0.506 0.3746 -0.706

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 35.07 53.33% -0.414
Aid From Lesser Spirits 16 25.38 43.75% 0.036 1.8141 -0.714
All Things Weaken 19 50.74 73.68% 0.338
Back Against the Wall 11 43.73 63.64% -0.323 1.6158 0.682
Disintegrating Ecosystem 11 30.36 27.27% -1.008 1.1202 -1.27
Downward Spiral 11 30.45 36.36% 0.024 1.9856 -0.35
Erosion of Will 15 40.07 66.67% -0.584
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 42.36 90.91% 0.243 0.7451 -0.139
Memory Fades to Dust 20 36.6 75.0% 0.019 2.1595 -0.562
Power Corrodes the Spirit 11 45.64 72.73% 0.031 2.0116 0.197
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.334
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 46.33 91.67% -0.418 0.0789 0.538
Thriving Communities 18 37.5 66.67% -0.458 1.601 -0.053
Unnatural Proliferation 6 31.67 83.33% 0.094 2.0514
Untended Land Crumbles 11 35.64 63.64% -0.413 1.6201 0.164

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 218 39.91% 38.5 82.11% 0.067 0.8037 -0.119
B 227 45.81% 40.85 79.3% -0.226 0.4715 -0.162
C 196 48.47% 44.49 79.59% -0.008 0.4617 0.241
D 200 42.5% 39.15 80.0% 0.155 0.8641 -0.245
E 168 35.71% 43.54 86.31% -0.099 0.445 0.035
F 128 35.94% 37.66 88.28% 0.46 1.1211 0.28
G 120 40.0% 38.26 85.83% -0.326 0.3051 -0.084
H 143 40.56% 40.73 86.01% -0.008 0.6566 0.071

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.091 -0.8889 0.295
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.091 -0.3655 0.295
Unlimited Undo 29 44.83% 57.83 79.31% 0.109
Using Tokens but Not Events 89 21.35% 42.83 96.63% 0.346 0.501 0.362

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 44 22.65 29.55%
II 173 31.08 79.77%
III 181 34.66 92.27%
IV 73 37.91 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 166
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 122
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 71
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 25
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 43
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)