Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 1 0.0% 33.0 1.255 100.0% 0.273 0.5564
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 -1.299 66.67% -0.164 0.2468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 100.0% 44.0 -0.048 100.0% 0.138 1.015
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 8.09 100.0% 0.095 1.3403
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 2 100.0% 30.0 -2.279 0.0% -0.576 1.4664
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 3 33.33% 26.67 -6.602 66.67% -0.19 -0.1482
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 3 33.33% 42.33 2.262 100.0% 0.66 0.6409
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 8 25.0% 80.5 5.896 87.5% -0.187 -0.1737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 100.0% 50.0 8.105 100.0% 0.186 0.4739
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 1 0.0% 57.0 10.343 100.0% 0.278 0.6453
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 1 100.0% 22.0 -9.281 0.0% -0.371 0.8668
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 100.0% 33.5 0.965 50.0% 0.102 1.0696
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 25.0 -7.171 0.0% -0.533 1.5402
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 41.67% 56.5 6.637 50.0% -0.619 1.6289
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 8.054 50.0% -0.251 1.5658
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 1 0.0% 81.0 15.82 100.0% 0.075 2.1716
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 26.0 -9.917 100.0% 0.053 0.1385
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 50.0% 31.5 -1.142 50.0% -0.137 0.0977
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 100.0% 68.0 11.776 100.0% 0.343 0.6296
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 -6.46 0.0% -0.379 0.7876
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 1 0.0% 29.0 -7.002 100.0% 0.201 0.0992
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 2 100.0% 17.5 -7.218 0.0% -0.575 0.2037
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 1 0.0% 135.0 31.883 100.0% 0.142 2.0201

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 8 0.0% 96.63 12.156 100.0% 0.355 0.7533
Elemental Invocation 1 1 100.0% 12.0 -3.422 0.0% -0.196 0.2686
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1 0.0% 34.0 -4.146 100.0% 0.12 0.4862
Rituals of Terror 3 1 100.0% 36.0 -5.0 0.0% -0.547 0.0976
Ward the Shores 2 6 66.67% 38.0 -2.31 16.67% -0.939 0.0949

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1 72.0 7.491 100.0% 0.165 2.2386
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 34.0 -3.124 50.0% -0.455 1.4633
All Things Weaken 3 44.67 0.217 66.67% 0.031 2.2008
Back Against the Wall 2 29.0 -4.63 50.0% -0.273 1.8183
Downward Spiral 3 27.0 -6.493 0.0% -0.853 1.1701
Erosion of Will 3 22.0 -5.497 33.33% -0.306 1.9033
Memory Fades to Dust 1 19.0 -7.86 0.0% -0.338 1.8811
Power Corrodes the Spirit 3 37.0 -1.889 33.33% -0.515 1.5089
Promising Farmlands 3 31.33 -4.705 33.33% -0.773 1.4406
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 1 71.0 8.577 100.0% 0.302 0.7118
Thriving Communities 5 24.0 -11.928 20.0% -1.084 1.011

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 34 41.18% 40.35 -0.425 64.71% 0.089 -0.6715
B 27 51.85% 42.81 -1.419 55.56% -0.695 -1.5516
C 37 45.95% 48.54 2.104 70.27% 0.388 -0.7005
D 29 55.17% 37.72 -1.981 55.17% -0.424 -1.2741
E 28 39.29% 50.46 0.02 75.0% -0.026 -0.9914
F 11 45.45% 46.82 -0.384 81.82% 0.022 -0.892
G 12 25.0% 44.42 -1.774 75.0% -0.078 -0.9834
H 20 35.0% 60.7 3.462 85.0% 0.737 -0.1771

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Start of Game Growth 1 100.0% 12.0 -3.422 0.0% -0.196 -0.666
Unlimited Undo 4 50.0% 62.75 3.978 75.0% -0.269 -0.6885
Using Tokens but Not Events 9 11.11% 82.22 6.331 100.0% 0.452 0.4

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10 22.35 0.0%
II 26 30.84 61.54%
III 21 34.35 95.24%
IV 9 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 20
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9
Lose: Adversary condition 9
Win: Scenario condition 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)