Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 7 28.57% 42.57 5.552 85.71% 0.456 0.8223
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 66.67% 28.44 -11.794 33.33% -0.761 0.005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 80.0% 39.4 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 60.0% 19.6 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 21 42.86% 34.24 3.338 90.48% 0.512 0.7265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 53.85% 37.35 84.62%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 29 44.83% 56.03 -3.016 75.86% -0.129 -0.0529
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 75.0% 57.63 93.75%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 40.0% 42.3 8.913 60.0% 0.228 0.6193
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 84.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 20.0% 55.8 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 17 29.41% 30.71 5.134 76.47% 0.395 0.8081
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 50.0% 38.4 -5.249 70.0% -0.589 -0.3086
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 83.33% 39.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 50.0% 33.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 12 83.33% 107.83 21.956 66.67% 0.327 1.7227
The Kingdom of England 6 11 57 50.88% 91.49 20.216 63.16% 0.114 2.0963
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 40.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 33.85 38.46%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 11 72.73% 40.09 -0.586 54.55% 0.141 1.1279
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 71.43% 54.71 71.43%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 16 87.5% 64.19 12.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 42 73.81% 48.48 6.012 16.67% -0.261 1.1608
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 20.0% 31.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 33.33% 40.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 88.89% 33.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 90.0% 37.6 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 60.0% 73.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 59 64.41% 57.64 27.12%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 14 50.0% 27.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 15 20.0% 42.13 3.039 93.33% 0.499 0.5665
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 75.0% 40.42 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 11 63.64% 43.91 72.73%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 100.0% 55.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 68.75% 74.25 -5.43 93.75% -0.202 0.7424
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 10 60.0% 39.3 4.555 70.0% 0.164 0.2283
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 11 81.82% 35.18 36.36%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 9 77.78% 34.33 3.675 33.33% -0.047 0.46
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 33.33% 48.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7 85.71% 42.86 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 40.0% 22.8 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 49 69.39% 118.0 16.905 71.43% -0.171 1.6484

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 100.0% 39.67 100.0% 0.158 -0.0624
Blitz 0 7 42.86% 45.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 62 58.06% 57.03 27.42% -1.139
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 49.0 66.67% 0.227 0.9654 -0.011
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.289
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 32.73% 58.89 80.0% 0.142 -0.4397 0.778
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 50 66.0% 115.28 72.0% 0.298 0.1274 0.494
Second Wave 0 52 32.69% 31.17 94.23% 0.124 0.2032
Varied Terrains 2 3 66.67% 37.67 66.67% 0.164 1.0436
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.556

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 36.2 50.0% -0.338 -0.2341 -0.067
Aid From Lesser Spirits 26 35.31 61.54% -0.282 -0.4269 -0.422
All Things Weaken 28 46.39 60.71% 0.316
Attenuated Essence 9 42.56 44.44% 0.645 0.643 -0.171
Back Against the Wall 17 46.24 70.59% -0.239 -0.1744 0.872
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 52.0 41.67% -0.292 -0.0574 -0.5
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 54.45 54.55% 0.144
Disintegrating Ecosystem 15 26.87 26.67% -0.348 0.0278 -1.298
Downward Spiral 20 43.65 60.0% 0.164 0.2362 0.248
Erosion of Will 26 39.88 57.69% -0.571 -0.3143 -0.68
Intensifying Exploitation 5 70.2 40.0% -0.33 -0.0562 0.047
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 42.54 92.31% -0.033
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.79 70.83% -0.366
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 46.04 52.17% 0.158 0.3706 -0.209
Promising Farmlands 20 59.6 60.0% 0.291 0.6142 0.471
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 67.71 85.71% 0.327 0.4973 0.266
Slow Dissolution of Will 5 53.0 40.0% 0.227 0.6108 0.024
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 67.05 95.0% 0.395 -0.2816 0.961
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0% 0.354
Thriving Communities 33 45.85 69.7% -0.331 -0.0073 0.191
Thriving Crops 7 73.86 85.71% 0.637
Unnatural Proliferation 13 37.08 69.23% 0.008
Untended Land Crumbles 23 44.09 56.52% 0.249 0.5883 -0.086

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 430 41.4% 38.63 70.93% -0.237 0.6257 -0.39
B 407 41.58% 41.0 74.69% -0.091 0.7299 -0.045
C 412 44.66% 42.19 69.66% -0.05 0.6482 -0.07
D 381 43.92% 40.69 67.98% -0.081 0.7756 -0.227
E 283 44.17% 43.31 75.27% -0.013 0.6753 -0.023
F 240 43.16% 44.5 77.5% 0.897 1.7149 0.326
G 212 45.93% 40.6 76.42% -0.229 0.6511 -0.186
H 254 44.62% 44.56 81.1% -0.184 0.5966 0.606

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 32.5 100.0% 0.327 1.0431
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 40.0% 33.3 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 25.0% 49.2 100.0% 0.327 -0.2398 0.417
Start of Game Growth 13 42.86% 43.38 84.62% 0.327 -0.3369 0.417
Unlimited Undo 47 48.78% 44.38 70.21% -0.106 -0.0832 0.116
Using Tokens but Not Events 156 32.0% 47.24 88.46% 0.442 0.4895 0.958

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 143 15.45 12.59%
II 296 30.45 72.97%
III 287 34.8 90.59%
IV 153 38.47 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 258
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 196
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 147
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 78
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 43
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 90
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-16 06:48:00 (Pacific Time)