Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 43.0 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 9 66.67% 28.44 -12.39 33.33% -0.657 0.2412
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 80.0% 39.4 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 5 60.0% 19.6 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 44.44% 32.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 53.85% 37.35 -5.174 84.62% -0.238 -0.1508
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 28 42.86% 55.89 -3.275 75.0% -0.562 -0.421
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 16 75.0% 57.63 -10.282 93.75% -0.402 -0.2156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 40.0% 42.3 5.334 60.0% 0.361 0.7147
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 84.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 20.0% 55.8 40.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 16 31.25% 30.06 1.25 75.0% 0.351 0.7248
The Kingdom of England 1 3 7 42.86% 46.29 85.71%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 83.33% 39.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 48.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 50.0% 33.0 30.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 12 83.33% 107.83 24.737 66.67% 0.287 1.8974
The Kingdom of England 6 11 55 50.91% 92.02 14.896 63.64% -0.058 1.9568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 10 40.0% 43.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 33.85 38.46%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 66.67% 37.22 44.44%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 71.43% 54.71 71.43%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 16 87.5% 64.19 12.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 41 73.17% 48.93 7.53 17.07% 0.045 1.4799
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 5 20.0% 31.6 -1.164 80.0% 0.125 0.3588
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 33.33% 40.17 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 9 88.89% 33.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 10 90.0% 37.6 0.061 50.0% 0.163 0.8431
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 60.0% 73.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 56 67.86% 56.55 23.21%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 14 50.0% 27.29 71.43%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 13 15.38% 45.46 2.902 100.0% 0.471 0.5343
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 75.0% 40.42 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 11 63.64% 43.91 72.73%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 100.0% 55.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 68.75% 74.25 -6.614 93.75% -0.196 0.8594
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 9 55.56% 37.67 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 11 81.82% 35.18 36.36%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 7 85.71% 32.71 28.57%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 33.33% 48.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7 85.71% 42.86 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 40.0% 22.8 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 46 69.57% 121.83 15.524 73.91% 0.158 1.8936

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 100.0% 39.67 100.0% 0.183 0.1979
Blitz 0 7 42.86% 45.0 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 62 58.06% 57.03 27.42% -1.177
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 43.5 50.0% -0.038
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.319
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 55 32.73% 58.89 80.0% -0.115 -0.761 0.733
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 0.0% 46.0 100.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 48 66.67% 116.88 72.92% 0.329 0.4052 0.55
Second Wave 0 51 31.37% 31.78 96.08%
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.562

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 36.2 50.0% -0.345 -0.1694 -0.113
Aid From Lesser Spirits 26 35.31 61.54% 0.084 0.0301 -0.499
All Things Weaken 28 46.39 60.71% -0.358 -0.0644 0.228
Attenuated Essence 7 45.14 28.57% -0.16
Back Against the Wall 15 41.27 73.33% 0.622
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 12 52.0 41.67% -0.074 0.1295 -0.557
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 54.45 54.55% 0.163 0.3503 0.095
Disintegrating Ecosystem 14 26.64 28.57% -1.282
Downward Spiral 19 43.11 57.89% 0.242
Erosion of Will 26 39.88 57.69% -0.494 -0.211 -0.738
Intensifying Exploitation 4 81.75 50.0% 0.163 0.4105 0.389
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 42.54 92.31% -0.048
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.79 70.83% -0.405
Power Corrodes the Spirit 23 46.04 52.17% -0.22 -0.0018 -0.213
Promising Farmlands 19 61.42 57.89% 0.086 0.3806 0.472
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 67.71 85.71% 0.497 0.6988 0.239
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 51.25 25.0% -0.011
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 20 67.05 95.0% 0.472 -0.1086 0.945
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0% 0.299
Thriving Communities 32 47.28 71.88% 0.26 0.5987 0.169
Thriving Crops 7 73.86 85.71% 0.605
Unnatural Proliferation 13 37.08 69.23% 0.212 0.3523 -0.011
Untended Land Crumbles 21 43.24 52.38% -0.2 0.2485 -0.076

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 412 41.02% 38.87 71.12% -0.198 0.6635 -0.391
B 386 42.23% 41.09 74.61% 0.14 0.9566 -0.115
C 397 45.59% 42.43 70.03% -0.192 0.4873 -0.078
D 367 43.6% 40.82 67.85% -0.276 0.5289 -0.25
E 275 44.36% 43.84 75.64% 0.038 0.7065 -0.045
F 224 43.3% 44.72 76.79% 1.207 2.0054 0.332
G 203 45.81% 41.48 76.85% -0.707 0.1183 -0.123
H 247 44.13% 44.49 80.97% 0.004 0.7764 0.675

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 10 40.0% 33.3 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.439
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.439
Unlimited Undo 39 48.72% 47.44 66.67% -0.204 -0.1604 0.038
Using Tokens but Not Events 145 32.41% 48.86 88.97% -0.392 -0.4496 0.911

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 133 15.74 11.28%
II 284 30.48 72.54%
III 278 34.79 90.65%
IV 147 38.41 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 15
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 250
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 186
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 141
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 71
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 42
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 21
Lose: Blight pool ran out 88
Lose: Spirit destroyed 11

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-04-02 05:52:40 (Pacific Time)