Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 1 100.0% 13.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 4 75.0% 25.25 25.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 30.77% 37.54 84.62%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 6 33.33% 48.17 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15 60.0% 28.6 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 85.71% 32.71 57.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 50.0% 47.7 10.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 30 40.0% 32.73 80.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 33 54.55% 37.3 0.586 84.85% 0.108 0.1291
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 38 55.26% 51.71 68.42%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 22 63.64% 43.09 -5.775 68.18% -0.265 0.0965
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 14 28.57% 42.86 64.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 84.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 42.86% 59.29 10.598 57.14% 0.114 1.4599
The Kingdom of England 0 1 26 42.31% 27.31 -1.356 61.54% -0.074 0.129
The Kingdom of England 1 3 12 58.33% 36.0 58.33%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 17 52.94% 42.88 58.82%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 66.67% 35.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 43.75% 36.63 37.5%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 12 83.33% 107.83 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 76 53.95% 93.39 65.79%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 13 30.77% 41.54 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 34.71 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 17 58.82% 42.88 58.82%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 2 50.0% 81.5 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 14 78.57% 58.71 57.14%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 18 83.33% 62.22 11.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 47 74.47% 48.83 17.02%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 14 28.57% 27.0 -3.383 57.14% -0.497 -0.4702
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 6 33.33% 45.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 9 33.33% 39.0 55.56%
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 75.0% 36.17 41.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 12 91.67% 36.08 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 9 77.78% 67.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 73 58.9% 55.15 -6.315 30.14% -0.29 0.9085
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 21 57.14% 27.43 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 20 30.0% 42.35 95.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 13 76.92% 40.0 76.92%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 61.54% 44.38 69.23%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 5 80.0% 54.8 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 20 60.0% 68.6 85.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 16 37.5% 38.38 1.831 81.25% 0.129 0.3732
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 12 75.0% 36.08 4.713 41.67% 0.141 0.7108
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 81.82% 33.82 0.941 36.36% -0.177 0.2115
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 33.33% 48.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 75.0% 44.75 62.5%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 5 40.0% 22.8 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 80 73.75% 100.31 57.5%

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 50.0% 41.0 100.0% 0.23 0.2002
Blitz 0 9 44.44% 46.33 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 75 60.0% 57.81 29.33%
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 49.0 66.67%
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 81 25.93% 57.37 81.48% 0.379
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 27.14 57.14%
Rituals of Terror 3 68 66.18% 111.96 69.12% -0.143
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 27.5 0.0% -0.269
Second Wave 0 59 35.59% 30.97 91.53% 0.203 0.1986
Varied Terrains 2 25 64.0% 45.4 52.0% -0.137
Ward the Shores 2 17 64.71% 28.88 29.41%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 24 41.58 58.33% 0.367
Aid From Lesser Spirits 33 36.58 57.58% -0.034 -0.1469 0.282
All Things Weaken 37 45.3 59.46% 0.096 0.471 0.328
Attenuated Essence 12 36.42 41.67%
Back Against the Wall 22 49.59 63.64%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 18 52.11 44.44% -0.497 -0.2912 0.328
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 39.77 40.91% -0.44 -0.3957 -0.178
Disintegrating Ecosystem 21 30.43 33.33% 0.108 0.6063 0.144
Downward Spiral 30 42.53 63.33%
Erosion of Will 29 39.66 58.62%
Intensifying Exploitation 7 78.14 57.14% 0.328
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 16 44.19 93.75%
Memory Fades to Dust 35 37.11 57.14% 0.114 0.3192 0.005
Power Corrodes the Spirit 26 43.77 53.85% 0.253
Promising Farmlands 29 54.72 62.07%
Shattered Fragments of Power 9 65.44 77.78%
Slow Dissolution of Will 21 44.43 38.1% 0.062
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 22 61.55 86.36%
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0%
Thriving Communities 42 45.12 66.67%
Thriving Crops 10 56.7 60.0% -0.229
Unnatural Proliferation 19 43.0 63.16% 0.109
Untended Land Crumbles 31 46.61 58.06%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 593 38.34% 36.17 68.97% 0.72 1.5198 -0.105
B 577 42.93% 38.05 67.42% -0.186 0.544 -0.685
C 572 43.88% 39.68 65.91% 0.655 1.259 -0.02
D 552 45.62% 40.42 64.49% -0.22 0.5373 -0.147
E 378 43.65% 40.88 73.28% 0.631 1.2159 -0.14
F 341 39.7% 43.54 72.43% -0.652 0.0505 0.19
G 286 43.11% 40.93 74.83% -0.211 0.5464 0.766
H 331 45.12% 45.2 75.53% -0.73 -0.0993 0.133

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 7 0.0% 30.57 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 18 47.06% 25.22 83.33%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 25.0% 49.2 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 29 47.83% 45.14 65.52% -0.181
Unlimited Undo 72 43.08% 43.08 63.89% -0.181
Using Tokens but Not Events 204 34.34% 46.18 80.39% -0.2

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 228 12.44 7.89%
II 403 29.94 69.98%
III 389 34.9 89.97%
IV 196 38.84 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 347
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 257
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 190
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 150
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 68
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 27
Lose: Blight pool ran out 125
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)