Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 5 40.0% 43.0 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 6 83.33% 30.33 33.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 80.0% 39.4 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 32.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 18 44.44% 32.67 88.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 23 52.17% 38.48 -0.239 86.96% 0.1 0.0303
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 24 37.5% 63.0 -8.584 87.5% -0.401 -0.484
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 14 78.57% 62.07 5.799 100.0% 0.225 0.4407
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 7 42.86% 36.57 -7.914 42.86% -0.366 -0.1417
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 50.0% 84.75 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 20.0% 55.8 -13.561 40.0% -0.567 0.7903
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 33.33% 25.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 5 20.0% 47.6 80.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 83.33% 39.83 4.464 66.67% 0.125 0.8581
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 75.0% 48.5 16.271 50.0% 0.102 1.3205
The Kingdom of England 4 7 10 50.0% 33.0 -11.41 30.0% -1.269 0.0119
The Kingdom of England 5 9 9 88.89% 110.78 66.67%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 28 50.0% 72.75 26.784 60.71% 0.399 2.3937
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 8 50.0% 42.25 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 13 61.54% 33.85 38.46%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 48.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 1 0.0% 85.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 24 83.33% 56.38 2.6 20.83% -0.835 0.6416
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 23.0 -0.239 50.0% 0.1 0.3121
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 6 33.33% 40.17 7.521 50.0% 0.284 0.6624
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 8 87.5% 29.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 9 88.89% 36.33 -2.04 44.44% -0.851 0.0104
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 60.0% 73.6 10.731 80.0% 0.187 0.8823
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 31 64.52% 60.81 3.368 38.71% -0.627 0.514
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 37.5% 27.88 -3.353 62.5% -0.188 0.008
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 8 25.0% 45.75 0.168 100.0% 0.121 0.217
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 75.0% 40.42 1.075 75.0% 0.147 0.2556
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 66.67% 51.22 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 100.0% 57.33 2.745 100.0% 0.165 0.785
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 11 54.55% 87.27 16.271 100.0% 0.102 1.0997
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 8 62.5% 42.38 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 11 81.82% 35.18 36.36%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 6 83.33% 34.33 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 33.33% 48.83 66.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 0.0 -16.796 0.0% -0.139 1.5782
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 19 78.95% 120.16 18.934 73.68% -0.008 1.974

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.1 0.2112
Dahan Insurrection 4 33 48.48% 64.85 48.48% -0.995 -1.2298 -0.948
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 43.5 50.0% -0.056
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.34
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 33.96% 59.26 81.13% -0.416 -1.1897 0.573
Rituals of Terror 3 20 80.0% 112.6 70.0% -0.008 0.0081 -0.006
Second Wave 0 49 30.61% 31.88 95.92% 1.099 1.1796
Varied Terrains 2 2 50.0% 29.5 50.0%
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 36.0 25.0% -0.552

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 18 37.67 55.56% -0.025 0.1345 -0.193
Aid From Lesser Spirits 20 28.65 55.0% 0.125 0.0388 -0.811
All Things Weaken 22 46.36 68.18% 0.155
Attenuated Essence 3 50.67 66.67% 0.093
Back Against the Wall 12 42.75 66.67% 0.273 0.3484 0.626
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 1 55.0 0.0% -0.042 0.1488 -0.048
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 78.5 75.0% -0.081 0.0423 0.293
Disintegrating Ecosystem 13 26.62 23.08% -0.366 0.0065 -1.411
Downward Spiral 18 43.89 55.56% 0.267 0.4037 0.135
Erosion of Will 22 39.09 68.18% -0.255 0.0395 -0.359
Intensifying Exploitation 1 65.0 100.0% 0.195
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 42.54 92.31% 0.284 -0.2481 -0.051
Memory Fades to Dust 24 38.79 70.83% -0.015 0.2661 -0.36
Power Corrodes the Spirit 16 36.06 50.0% -0.124 0.0288 -0.059
Promising Farmlands 13 64.0 61.54% -0.003 0.3432 0.834
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 54.0 100.0% 0.76 0.9547
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 44.5 50.0% 0.13
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 17 66.82 94.12% 0.332 -0.4088 0.665
Thriving Communities 26 37.23 65.38% 0.172 0.4706 -0.027
Thriving Crops 5 82.8 80.0% 0.258 0.1554 0.479
Unnatural Proliferation 10 33.3 80.0% 0.123
Untended Land Crumbles 18 35.33 55.56% -0.822 -0.5223 0.047

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 321 37.69% 38.02 77.57% -0.496 0.4981 -0.27
B 325 43.08% 42.01 77.54% 0.212 1.1297 0.014
C 314 45.22% 42.96 75.48% -0.007 0.7359 0.129
D 297 41.41% 36.91 72.39% -0.359 0.5929 -0.6
E 230 41.3% 44.79 78.26% 0.215 0.9951 0.135
F 172 39.53% 37.27 81.4% 0.37 1.263 -0.196
G 167 43.71% 40.59 80.84% -0.489 0.3659 0.379
H 201 40.3% 39.0 83.58% 0.571 1.4196 0.427

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.458
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.458
Unlimited Undo 38 50.0% 48.68 68.42% 0.066 0.11 0.134
Using Tokens but Not Events 129 31.78% 47.69 93.02% 0.458 0.4305 1.365

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 89 17.67 15.73%
II 242 30.7 78.1%
III 236 34.75 90.68%
IV 112 38.22 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 213
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 171
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 108
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 39
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 31
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 60
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)