Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 100.0% 39.67 100.0%
Blitz 0 8 50.0% 45.25 100.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 75 60.0% 57.81 29.33% -1.276
Despicable Theft 2 3 66.67% 49.0 66.67% -0.017
Elemental Invocation 1 6 100.0% 42.67 83.33% 0.304
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 71 29.58% 58.45 80.28% 0.291 -0.3087 1.27
Powers Long Forgotten 1 7 57.14% 27.14 57.14% -0.044 0.7929 -0.146
Rituals of Terror 3 58 65.52% 113.66 70.69% 0.284 0.344 0.847
Second Wave 0 54 33.33% 31.3 94.44% 0.004 0.254
Varied Terrains 2 13 53.85% 44.69 53.85% -0.405 0.4243 0.058
Ward the Shores 2 11 54.55% 32.73 36.36% -0.445

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 22 37.23 54.55% 0.161 0.2331 0.425
Aid From Lesser Spirits 27 35.33 59.26% -0.211 -0.2824 -0.511
All Things Weaken 30 44.53 60.0% 0.177
Attenuated Essence 11 38.0 45.45% -0.072 -0.1076 -0.17
Back Against the Wall 21 50.71 66.67% 0.533 0.5864 1.178
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 14 48.64 42.86% -0.492 -0.347 -0.865
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 47.06 50.0% 0.133 0.1497 -0.289
Disintegrating Ecosystem 17 25.35 29.41% 0.165 0.3532 -1.238
Downward Spiral 26 46.42 61.54% 0.144 0.2178 0.217
Erosion of Will 28 39.36 57.14% -0.585
Intensifying Exploitation 6 66.33 50.0% 0.065
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 44.53 93.33% 0.138 -0.4758 0.234
Memory Fades to Dust 31 36.77 61.29% -0.833 -0.6298 -0.072
Power Corrodes the Spirit 24 44.67 50.0% -0.439 -0.2638 -0.153
Promising Farmlands 25 59.0 60.0% 0.876 1.0738 0.537
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 71.0 87.5% 0.225 0.2278 0.528
Slow Dissolution of Will 15 45.93 26.67% 0.204 0.5019 -0.211
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 64.48 90.48% 0.919
The Border of Life and Death 1 152.0 100.0% 0.293
Thriving Communities 37 46.51 64.86% 0.271 0.4273 -0.031
Thriving Crops 8 67.75 75.0% 0.389
Unnatural Proliferation 16 35.69 62.5% 0.247 0.3555 -0.094
Untended Land Crumbles 31 46.61 58.06% -0.17 0.0121 0.354

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 505 40.0% 37.19 67.92% -0.597 0.3782 -0.445
B 491 43.85% 39.68 69.04% -0.169 0.7204 -0.142
C 501 44.71% 40.85 66.07% 0.684 1.3762 0.17
D 466 45.36% 40.68 64.38% -0.416 0.4793 -0.382
E 324 44.44% 42.52 73.46% -0.021 0.7085 -0.064
F 294 41.32% 43.3 74.15% 0.307 1.1383 0.291
G 239 46.19% 40.81 74.48% 0.227 1.006 -0.134
H 290 43.55% 44.7 78.62% -0.001 0.7818 0.684

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 32.5 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 35.71% 26.14 78.57%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 10 25.0% 49.2 100.0% 0.345
Start of Game Growth 22 50.0% 46.91 72.73% -0.093 -0.5308 0.403
Unlimited Undo 63 43.86% 44.54 66.67% 0.052 -0.014 0.175
Using Tokens but Not Events 194 33.51% 46.53 81.44% -0.523 -0.5658 0.754

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 194 13.76 9.28%
II 350 30.19 70.29%
III 326 34.82 90.49%
IV 171 38.63 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 18
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 293
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 221
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 165
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 117
Lose: Invader deck ran out 6
Lose: Adversary condition 57
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 7
Win: Scenario condition 26
Lose: Blight pool ran out 112
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)