Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 0.0% 41.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 33.33% 41.33 66.67%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 5 100.0% 25.6 -7.279 20.0% -0.451 0.6681
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 1 0.0% 54.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 64.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 100.0% 32.67 0.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 16 50.0% 32.44 -3.752 87.5% 0.133 0.3778
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 13 30.77% 42.23 -0.213 92.31% 0.05 -0.076
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 16 43.75% 66.38 3.869 87.5% 0.21 0.3257
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 71.43% 66.29 6.999 100.0% 0.154 0.5287
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 48.25 -5.533 50.0% -0.488 -0.022
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 33.33% 92.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 50.0% 46.0 13.997 50.0% 0.153 1.7279
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 33.33% 29.67 -7.271 66.67% -0.486 0.0299
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 0.0% 53.5 3.98 100.0% 0.105 0.7147
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 39.6 60.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 66.67% 31.67 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 100.0% 67.33 12.947 66.67% 0.133 1.7116
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 100.0% 119.5 75.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 20 50.0% 58.1 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 45.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 10 70.0% 33.7 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 4 100.0% 53.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 67.67 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 52.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 58.14 0.712 28.57% -0.808 1.5587
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 3 33.33% 45.33 1.588 66.67% -0.42 0.4253
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 0.0% 48.0 2.454 100.0% 0.145 0.9737
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 100.0% 34.5 -1.261 50.0% -0.306 0.5642
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 56.0 4.789 100.0% 0.046 1.2817
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 100.0% 107.0 12.947 100.0% 0.133 1.5641
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 3 100.0% 57.0 0.47 33.33% -0.523 1.176
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 60.0% 32.0 1.568 60.0% 0.117 0.2842
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 4 25.0% 43.0 -1.081 100.0% 0.106 -0.117
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 80.0% 40.6 16.498 70.0% 0.085 0.5385
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 8 75.0% 51.13 -0.858 87.5% 0.031 0.3404
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 1 100.0% 49.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 25.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 3 66.67% 82.33 7.145 100.0% 0.194 1.3862
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 4 75.0% 30.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 80.0% 31.8 30.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 5 100.0% 31.2 20.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 4 50.0% 53.75 75.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 70.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 5 80.0% 128.4 -6.828 80.0% -0.569 1.4497

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0% 0.031 0.2879
Dahan Insurrection 4 16 25.0% 83.06 81.25% -0.117 0.2961 0.158
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.296
Elemental Invocation 1 3 100.0% 31.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 24 45.83% 59.17 75.0% -0.355 -0.0496 -0.127
Rituals of Terror 3 5 100.0% 108.6 60.0% 0.026
Second Wave 0 13 46.15% 33.77 92.31% 0.413 0.9789
Ward the Shores 2 7 57.14% 39.86 28.57% -0.648

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 15 35.07 53.33% -0.653 1.2495 -0.427
Aid From Lesser Spirits 15 24.47 40.0% -0.606 1.1237 -0.689
All Things Weaken 18 50.5 72.22% 0.035 2.0208 0.308
Back Against the Wall 9 45.11 66.67% 0.673
Disintegrating Ecosystem 7 27.14 28.57% -0.521 1.5292 -0.709
Downward Spiral 9 25.33 22.22% -0.678
Erosion of Will 14 39.36 64.29% -0.216 1.8675 -0.56
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 8 46.0 87.5% 0.068 0.5091 -0.092
Memory Fades to Dust 16 38.06 68.75% -0.201 1.8829 -0.498
Power Corrodes the Spirit 10 48.1 70.0% 0.278 2.2165 0.185
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.095 2.1405 0.296
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 7 61.29 100.0% 0.133 0.5576 0.537
Thriving Communities 16 31.69 68.75% -0.276
Unnatural Proliferation 4 29.25 75.0% 0.106 2.0708
Untended Land Crumbles 8 33.13 62.5% -0.56 1.4334

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 173 42.77% 38.14 80.35% -0.044 0.7536 -0.202
B 179 48.04% 40.59 77.09% -0.076 0.668 -0.093
C 168 47.62% 43.96 77.98% -0.266 0.3029 0.213
D 151 47.68% 41.08 75.5% -0.477 0.3189 -0.273
E 126 38.1% 45.48 84.13% -0.163 0.4843 0.2
F 93 41.94% 38.46 86.02% 0.571 1.2949 0.063
G 94 43.62% 40.37 85.11% -0.046 0.6853 0.095
H 113 43.36% 41.86 84.07% 0.512 1.2243 0.009

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 50.0% 32.17 100.0% 0.263 0.4375
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2 0.0% 41.5 100.0% 0.112 -0.0302
Start of Game Growth 5 40.0% 31.0 60.0% 0.112 -0.6484
Unlimited Undo 27 48.15% 58.78 77.78% 0.322 -0.2818 0.096
Using Tokens but Not Events 44 20.45% 55.2 100.0% 0.251 0.0944 0.628

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31 22.56 19.35%
II 134 30.98 74.63%
III 149 34.53 91.95%
IV 56 37.77 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 136
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 85
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 55
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 20
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 4
Win: Scenario condition 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 41
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)