Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Blitz 0 1 100.0% 47.0 100.0% 0.209 0.3551
Dahan Insurrection 4 18 27.78% 79.89 77.78% -0.285
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 87.0 100.0% 0.35
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.5 75.0% 0.149
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 42 35.71% 57.38 78.57% -0.177 -0.7838 0.103
Rituals of Terror 3 14 85.71% 112.71 71.43% -0.008 0.097 -0.261
Second Wave 0 37 32.43% 30.59 94.59% -0.287 -0.2246
Varied Terrains 2 1 0.0% 59.0 100.0%
Ward the Shores 2 8 62.5% 36.0 25.0% -0.72

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 17 36.41 58.82% 0.246 0.5175 -0.248
Aid From Lesser Spirits 17 26.18 47.06% -0.815
All Things Weaken 21 46.76 66.67% -0.208 0.2523 0.22
Attenuated Essence 3 50.67 66.67% -0.081 0.1245 0.064
Back Against the Wall 11 43.73 63.64% 0.644
Burn Brightest Before the End 2 109.0 100.0% 0.235 0.5396 0.399
Disintegrating Ecosystem 12 28.83 25.0% -1.335
Downward Spiral 13 42.92 46.15% 0.252 0.6044 -0.055
Erosion of Will 17 40.65 70.59% 0.09 0.4983 -0.475
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 11 42.36 90.91% -0.106
Memory Fades to Dust 22 38.0 72.73% -0.171 0.3104 -0.394
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 43.33 66.67% -0.416 -0.1116 0.145
Promising Farmlands 8 39.25 62.5% 0.35
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 89.0 100.0% 0.21 0.7435 0.287
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 68.44 93.75% 0.313 -0.3649 0.705
Thriving Communities 20 37.55 70.0% 0.108 0.6007 0.045
Thriving Crops 2 52.0 100.0% 0.204 0.2917
Unnatural Proliferation 7 28.71 71.43% -0.332 -0.0348
Untended Land Crumbles 12 36.17 66.67% 0.193 0.5508 0.149

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 261 37.93% 38.3 81.61% -0.239 0.6013 -0.052
B 262 43.13% 41.76 80.53% 0.691 1.47 0.031
C 241 46.06% 44.47 80.08% 0.313 0.9666 0.354
D 224 41.07% 38.3 78.13% -0.318 0.4814 -0.621
E 190 37.89% 44.78 83.68% -0.161 0.4674 -0.103
F 149 36.91% 37.07 82.55% -1.349 -0.6294 -0.292
G 136 44.12% 41.88 85.29% 0.527 1.2684 0.297
H 162 42.59% 41.44 85.8% 0.553 1.2012 0.403

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 9 44.44% 33.33 100.0%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4 25.0% 74.25 100.0% 0.272
Start of Game Growth 7 42.86% 52.71 71.43% 0.272
Unlimited Undo 36 50.0% 50.56 69.44% -0.624 -0.6461 0.036
Using Tokens but Not Events 111 29.73% 48.32 94.59% 0.437 0.3832 1.013

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 53 21.03 26.42%
II 201 31.04 80.1%
III 205 34.74 90.73%
IV 86 38.02 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 185
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 145
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 83
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 8
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 26
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Scenario condition 6
Win: Scenario condition 16
Lose: Blight pool ran out 48
Lose: Spirit destroyed 6

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)