Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 21.0 -6.801 50.0% -0.655 -0.3711
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 2 0.0% 37.0 -1.215 100.0% 0.167 0.5774
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 78.0 16.199 100.0% 0.063 0.9396
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 4 100.0% 39.75 -2.625 50.0% -0.592 0.6533
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 3 100.0% 34.33 -0.029 33.33% -0.626 0.8761
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 42.67 1.037 33.33% -0.399 1.6438
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 40.5 1.003 100.0% 0.085 0.1265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 6 66.67% 34.0 0.078 100.0% 0.591 0.5721
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 41.0 2.555 66.67% -0.157 -0.1441
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 5 60.0% 57.2 5.048 100.0% 0.44 0.7278
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 65.0 13.775 100.0% 0.303 0.6696
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 75.0% 65.5 11.247 75.0% -0.403 0.4237
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 8 62.5% 63.5 10.328 50.0% -0.526 0.7123
The Kingdom of England 0 1 3 0.0% 37.67 -3.22 100.0% 0.241 0.573
The Kingdom of England 1 3 2 100.0% 33.5 -5.364 100.0% 0.082 0.5959
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 46.0 3.933 100.0% 0.086 1.054
The Kingdom of England 3 6 4 50.0% 53.5 8.44 75.0% 0.093 1.6718
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 29.67 -4.701 0.0% -1.081 0.4178
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3 100.0% 54.0 9.405 33.33% -0.437 1.8106
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 20.0 -4.724 33.33% -0.513 0.0007
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 39.33 2.426 100.0% 0.446 1.3457
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 30.5 -0.206 33.33% -0.603 1.5402
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 57.67 10.802 100.0% 0.593 2.7897
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 72.0 14.669 100.0% 0.146 1.9634
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 75.0% 50.0 7.05 37.5% -0.959 1.1383
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 0.427 100.0% 0.184 0.2691
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 1 0.0% 56.0 3.126 100.0% 0.128 0.3633
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 53.0 7.073 100.0% 0.028 0.3147
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 47.33 3.838 33.33% -0.638 0.1457
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 100.0% 17.0 -6.134 0.0% -0.365 0.759
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 41.0 1.537 100.0% 0.164 0.5835
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 100.0% 50.33 5.518 66.67% -0.138 1.1156
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 0.0% 118.0 15.784 100.0% 0.021 1.1379
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 99.0 19.59 100.0% 0.26 2.2594
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 18 22.22% 115.94 20.632 83.33% -0.543 1.3355

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Dahan Insurrection 4 25 12.0% 108.76 18.593 92.0% 0.332 0.7302
Despicable Theft 2 1 100.0% 27.0 -0.746 0.0% -0.371 -0.1012
Elemental Invocation 1 2 100.0% 32.5 -1.741 50.0% -0.355 0.1097
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 9 11.11% 34.67 -0.609 77.78% -0.159 0.2075
Second Wave 0 8 37.5% 26.38 -4.653 75.0% -0.476 -0.0468
Ward the Shores 2 2 100.0% 30.5 -7.48 50.0% -0.419 0.6151

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 4 42.5 -2.11 50.0% -0.596 1.4774
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 36.75 -0.341 100.0% 0.322 2.2403
All Things Weaken 7 33.57 -6.091 57.14% -0.79 1.3802
Back Against the Wall 7 15.86 -9.919 42.86% -1.18 0.9113
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 35.0 -5.015 50.0% -0.417 1.8073
Downward Spiral 6 22.17 -9.914 66.67% -0.632 1.3907
Erosion of Will 12 44.92 -2.315 66.67% -0.373 1.8362
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 4 46.75 2.198 100.0% 0.645 1.3309
Memory Fades to Dust 10 42.1 0.85 70.0% -0.382 1.8365
Power Corrodes the Spirit 12 33.5 -3.266 50.0% -0.952 1.0719
Promising Farmlands 6 36.17 -2.08 50.0% -0.696 1.5179
Thriving Communities 2 39.5 -4.856 50.0% -0.521 1.5737
Unnatural Proliferation 11 46.0 -0.04 54.55% -1.026 1.0605
Untended Land Crumbles 1 67.0 14.717 100.0% 0.419 2.5252

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 62 43.55% 33.94 -3.369 83.87% 0.506 -0.2542
B 74 49.32% 37.39 -2.387 72.97% -0.458 -1.315
C 49 51.02% 36.73 -2.416 77.55% -0.031 -1.1193
D 54 38.89% 63.83 5.059 81.48% 0.031 -0.8192
E 55 43.64% 47.87 0.63 76.36% -0.187 -1.1525
F 36 41.67% 37.78 -2.509 72.22% -0.429 -1.3428
G 25 58.33% 39.52 -1.422 80.0% 0.007 -0.8981
H 51 35.29% 69.71 5.941 90.2% 0.57 -0.3447

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 29.0 -12.021 100.0% 0.019 2.0757
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 50.0% 19.0 -14.31 50.0% -0.676 -0.4604
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 0.0% 44.78 0.831 100.0% 0.509 -0.1782
Start of Game Growth 11 0.0% 46.0 2.155 100.0% 0.594 0.124
Unlimited Undo 23 54.55% 45.52 1.508 69.57% -0.639 -1.0591
Using Tokens but Not Events 21 30.0% 38.38 -4.131 85.71% 0.096 0.0436

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 21 22.35 19.05%
II 82 30.84 78.05%
III 66 34.35 89.39%
IV 34 37.52 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 54
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 43
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 34
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 16
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 24
Lose: Blight pool ran out 21
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)