Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 34.48% 26.03 79.31%
Blitz 0 36 40.0% 28.83 75.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 202 40.1% 45.08 25.25% -0.493
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 27.58 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 25 84.0% 31.76 60.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 179 27.93% 36.63 48.6% 0.573 -0.0262 -0.209
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 88.24% 25.71 41.18%
Rituals of Terror 3 51 62.75% 84.88 58.82%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 33 24.24% 17.33 15.15% 0.151 0.8892 -0.577
Second Wave 0 81 28.4% 27.86 75.31% -0.384 -0.2776 -0.249
Varied Terrains 2 19 57.89% 30.89 42.11%
Ward the Shores 2 19 63.16% 21.16 36.84% -0.608

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 76 34.18 44.74% -0.265 0.0452
Aid From Lesser Spirits 41 38.8 70.73%
All Things Weaken 82 35.17 59.76% -0.133 0.3411 0.305
Attenuated Essence 30 37.43 33.33% 0.329
Back Against the Wall 50 32.48 48.0%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 29.05 25.0% 0.596
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 34.35 48.39% -0.155
Disintegrating Ecosystem 45 30.07 46.67% -0.113
Downward Spiral 87 34.98 51.72% 0.283 0.4761 -0.039
Erosion of Will 75 30.65 54.67% 0.058
Intensifying Exploitation 29 33.97 37.93%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 27 43.7 85.19%
Memory Fades to Dust 89 34.89 50.56% -0.173
Power Corrodes the Spirit 82 37.91 67.07% 0.182 0.4489 0.344
Promising Farmlands 59 28.44 45.76% -0.13
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 30.44 44.44% 0.124 0.1234 0.31
Slow Dissolution of Will 27 29.41 37.04% -0.108
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 46.72 83.33%
The Border of Life and Death 12 26.0 66.67%
Thriving Communities 81 29.98 39.51% 0.415
Thriving Crops 24 30.42 50.0% 0.32
Unnatural Proliferation 82 32.62 47.56% -0.234 -0.0294 -0.044
Untended Land Crumbles 58 33.34 46.55%

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 953 41.12% 30.5 58.55% -0.088 0.9038 -0.24
B 946 42.98% 29.47 53.17% -0.493 0.3718 -0.294
C 907 42.67% 29.9 54.69% 0.616 1.3675 0.434
D 752 42.06% 30.7 53.19% -0.669 0.2761 -0.119
E 626 39.9% 32.67 61.82% -0.64 0.1153 0.71
F 407 46.91% 31.65 62.65% 0.673 1.5477 -0.251
G 440 47.6% 29.33 56.14% 0.394 1.2563 -0.282
H 488 36.68% 34.93 60.45% 0.211 1.0184 0.035

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 11.73 33.33%
Not Using Events or Tokens 33 20.69% 21.58 54.55% 0.427 0.9015
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 6.45% 33.13 76.32% 0.357 -0.4475
Start of Game Growth 54 21.28% 35.93 68.52% 0.023 -0.544 0.366
Unlimited Undo 261 29.13% 26.93 44.44% -0.44 -0.4129 0.408
Using Tokens but Not Events 417 30.54% 30.94 57.79% -0.452 -0.479 0.532

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 806 12.25 5.58%
II 786 29.91 62.72%
III 761 34.94 82.65%
IV 412 38.9 99.51%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 44
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 613
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 445
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 389
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 617
Lose: Invader deck ran out 18
Lose: Adversary condition 154
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Lose: Scenario condition 52
Win: Scenario condition 58
Lose: Blight pool ran out 319
Lose: Spirit destroyed 28

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)