Results with Adversaries

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 34.48% 26.03 79.31%
Blitz 0 36 40.0% 28.83 75.0%
Dahan Insurrection 4 202 40.1% 45.08 25.25% -0.148
Despicable Theft 2 12 33.33% 27.58 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 25 84.0% 31.76 60.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 173 28.9% 36.4 46.82% 0.225 -0.3711 -0.21
Powers Long Forgotten 1 17 88.24% 25.71 41.18%
Rituals of Terror 3 51 62.75% 84.88 58.82%
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 32 25.0% 12.78 12.5% -0.828
Second Wave 0 80 27.5% 27.93 76.25% 0.511 0.5068 -0.211
Varied Terrains 2 17 64.71% 28.65 35.29%
Ward the Shores 2 19 63.16% 21.16 36.84% -0.546 0.3235 -0.58

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 74 34.59 44.59% -0.21
Aid From Lesser Spirits 41 38.8 70.73%
All Things Weaken 80 35.05 60.0% -0.478 -0.1027 0.313
Attenuated Essence 30 37.43 33.33% 0.767
Back Against the Wall 50 32.48 48.0%
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 20 29.05 25.0% 0.551
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 34.35 48.39% 0.215 0.2598 -0.176
Disintegrating Ecosystem 45 30.07 46.67% -0.088
Downward Spiral 84 35.01 51.19% 0.053
Erosion of Will 73 30.97 54.79% 0.112
Intensifying Exploitation 27 35.3 37.04%
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 26 44.08 84.62%
Memory Fades to Dust 89 34.89 50.56% -0.388 -0.1825 0.355
Power Corrodes the Spirit 80 37.33 66.25% 0.092 0.2904 -0.01
Promising Farmlands 59 28.44 45.76% -0.132 0.224 -0.124
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 30.29 42.86% -0.268 -0.0508 0.319
Slow Dissolution of Will 26 29.54 34.62% -0.086
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 46.72 83.33%
The Border of Life and Death 12 26.0 66.67%
Thriving Communities 81 29.98 39.51% -0.429 -0.1091 0.195
Thriving Crops 24 30.42 50.0% 0.189 0.07 0.407
Unnatural Proliferation 81 32.96 48.15% -0.032
Untended Land Crumbles 58 33.34 46.55% 0.324 0.5493

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 940 41.16% 30.49 58.51% -1.157 -0.3576 -0.339
B 932 43.3% 29.42 53.11% 0.136 0.8664 -0.408
C 892 42.82% 29.79 54.37% 0.034 0.6385 0.175
D 739 41.71% 30.76 53.04% 0.274 1.031 0.209
E 619 39.71% 32.82 62.04% 0.501 1.0858 0.753
F 395 46.7% 31.52 61.77% 0.004 0.7067 -0.209
G 431 47.79% 28.95 55.45% 0.145 0.9023 -0.27
H 480 37.08% 34.62 59.79% 0.07 0.7012 0.081

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 14 0.0% 10.93 28.57% -0.139 0.7345
Not Using Events or Tokens 29 12.0% 19.72 51.72%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 36 6.9% 32.72 75.0% -0.139 -0.4306
Start of Game Growth 51 22.73% 36.45 68.63% 0.003 -0.5541 0.358
Unlimited Undo 257 29.2% 27.09 44.36% 0.09 0.1535 0.647
Using Tokens but Not Events 409 30.58% 31.04 57.7% -0.61 -0.7372 0.616

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 794 12.44 5.16%
II 776 29.94 62.76%
III 750 34.9 82.53%
IV 400 38.84 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 40
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 603
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 439
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 377
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 608
Lose: Invader deck ran out 18
Lose: Adversary condition 154
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Lose: Scenario condition 52
Win: Scenario condition 58
Lose: Blight pool ran out 315
Lose: Spirit destroyed 28

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-10-18 23:57:56 (Pacific Time)