Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 53.85% 28.85 46.15%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10 30.0% 40.2 20.387 80.0% 0.486 0.8323
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 17 70.59% 35.47 -2.928 47.06% -0.449 0.3806
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 15 86.67% 44.67 -0.132 73.33% -0.175 0.8163
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 100.0% 42.0 50.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 13 61.54% 47.77 12.871 15.38% -0.032 1.9808
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 39 46.15% 34.38 -2.252 66.67% -0.16 -0.0749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 61.54% 37.31 80.77%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 28 42.86% 41.96 0.898 60.71% -0.41 -0.4215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 83.33% 50.42 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 75.0% 59.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 48 38.3% 34.83 -3.847 25.0% -1.252 0.0862
The Kingdom of England 0 1 26 50.0% 33.27 7.222 76.92% 0.42 0.6857
The Kingdom of England 1 3 18 50.0% 36.22 0.393 55.56% -0.598 -0.4147
The Kingdom of England 2 4 19 42.11% 38.16 -11.475 36.84% -0.469 0.2675
The Kingdom of England 3 6 18 44.44% 44.89 61.11%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 27.78% 50.11 14.672 61.11% 0.264 1.3103
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 37 67.57% 79.05 -6.182 40.54% -0.071 1.9706
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 13 46.15% 31.77 12.622 46.15% 0.232 0.6342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 30.56 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 78.95% 33.16 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 71.43% 44.29 10.119 71.43% 0.115 1.4031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 53 75.47% 64.43 -2.573 35.85% -0.161 1.1833
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 22.5 -9.351 25.0% -0.513 -0.4967
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 65.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 8 87.5% 36.0 3.28 50.0% -0.327 0.1141
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 30.77% 35.92 1.848 53.85% -0.059 0.3264
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 14.29% 44.43 14.113 42.86% 0.437 1.0553
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 19 26.32% 50.53 8.257 42.11% -0.067 0.7167
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 33 27.27% 28.06 -4.691 21.21% -1.227 0.0485
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 22.22% 33.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 28.57% 43.0 16.538 100.0% 0.323 0.3494
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 13 38.46% 47.15 1.712 76.92% -0.186 0.2417
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 70.0% 54.86 3.964 52.38% -0.064 0.8234
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 29.17 58.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 4 75.0% 45.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 41.67% 45.33 14.672 75.0% 0.264 0.69
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 70.0% 39.5 -11.483 50.0% -0.53 0.5844
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 77 53.25% 99.35 19.916 59.74% 0.383 2.2239

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 50.0% 24.67 83.33% 0.086 -0.1696
Blitz 0 20 21.05% 26.05 70.0% -0.816 -0.6185 0.067
Dahan Insurrection 4 94 31.91% 67.86 46.81% -1.166 -1.6086 -1.193
Despicable Theft 2 6 33.33% 13.5 16.67% -0.85 -0.0374
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 87 24.14% 43.1 57.47% -0.14 -0.7846 0.546
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 13.67 33.33% -0.234 0.401
Rituals of Terror 3 39 61.54% 98.49 61.54% -0.113
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.176
Second Wave 0 30 36.67% 30.97 80.0% 0.16 0.2262
Varied Terrains 2 6 50.0% 30.33 33.33% -0.234 0.389 -0.098
Ward the Shores 2 7 71.43% 28.57 42.86% -0.67 0.4146 -0.244

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 33.72 48.84% 0.115 0.3576 -0.702
Aid From Lesser Spirits 23 42.26 69.57% 0.205 0.1276 -0.065
All Things Weaken 46 37.54 60.87% -0.396 -0.0039 -0.784
Attenuated Essence 1 48.0 0.0% -0.023 0.0837 -0.063
Back Against the Wall 26 31.35 57.69% -0.488
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 38.0 50.0% -0.252 -0.0502 0.098
Burn Brightest Before the End 3 17.33 66.67% -0.155 0.0556
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 35.59 54.55% 0.079
Downward Spiral 47 36.74 57.45% -0.07 0.1654 -0.41
Erosion of Will 51 32.88 64.71% -0.249 0.06 -0.386
Intensifying Exploitation 2 43.5 100.0% 0.376 0.6631
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 44.56 88.89% 0.827
Memory Fades to Dust 51 42.33 56.86% -0.208 0.1285 0.63
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53 39.08 71.7% 0.047
Promising Farmlands 32 32.31 59.38% 0.306 0.7592 -0.543
Shattered Fragments of Power 3 20.33 0.0% -0.387 -0.3359 -0.078
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 26.5 0.0% -0.358 0.0414 -0.049
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 48.43 85.71% -0.245 -0.956 -0.277
The Border of Life and Death 3 45.0 100.0% 0.88 0.5449
Thriving Communities 50 33.66 46.0% -0.244 0.1194 -0.792
Thriving Crops 3 32.0 66.67% 0.601 0.4029 -0.462
Unnatural Proliferation 51 35.18 54.9% -0.048 0.1667 -0.415
Untended Land Crumbles 34 32.38 50.0% 0.269 0.5504 -0.305

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 483 43.84% 37.63 72.67% 0.052 0.7926 -0.448
B 447 43.82% 37.11 68.9% -0.311 0.4148 -0.745
C 460 43.57% 34.98 66.3% -0.901 -0.3188 -0.739
D 361 44.88% 40.87 68.14% 0.06 0.7715 0.289
E 310 39.29% 38.14 72.26% 0.055 0.6205 -0.181
F 190 50.53% 38.49 74.21% -0.042 0.6285 0.032
G 203 45.54% 35.66 77.83% 0.343 0.9951 0.825
H 211 36.97% 49.83 84.36% 0.757 1.3277 0.979

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 25.6 60.0% -0.037 0.7394 -0.247
Not Using Events or Tokens 16 14.29% 29.25 75.0% -0.216 0.1635 -0.742
Skip Initial Invader Actions 19 12.5% 44.53 94.74% 0.156 -0.4621 0.122
Start of Game Growth 28 24.0% 44.68 82.14% 0.156 -0.193 0.307
Unlimited Undo 94 33.7% 41.68 63.83% -1.345 -1.3517 0.462
Using Tokens but Not Events 219 36.57% 42.72 72.6% -0.081 -0.0909 0.545

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 212 20.4 11.79%
II 441 31.01 72.56%
III 443 34.76 84.42%
IV 242 38.07 99.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 366
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 279
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 221
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 87
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 70
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 29
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 163
Lose: Spirit destroyed 17

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)