Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 28.42 -2.032 41.67% 0.171 0.6848
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 37.56 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 80.0% 42.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 90.91% 47.91 2.352 81.82% 0.051 1.3735
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 45.0 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 70.0% 46.1 -0.466 10.0% -1.029 1.1454
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 34 52.94% 35.68 0.334 67.65% 0.284 0.4605
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 61.54% 37.31 -1.055 80.77% 0.064 -0.2111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 35.0% 49.45 7.071 80.0% 0.217 0.4658
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 90.0% 50.0 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 83.33% 57.17 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 20 60.0% 69.8 15.99 55.0% -0.102 1.3933
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 54.55% 33.18 81.82%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 60.0% 41.2 0.269 70.0% -0.344 0.4048
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 50.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 50.0% 50.5 13.452 68.75% 0.182 1.8704
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 45.45% 47.45 45.45%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 -1.819 20.0% -0.33 1.7616
The Kingdom of England 6 11 34 67.65% 80.03 9.867 41.18% -0.575 1.9626
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 29.75 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 6 66.67% 38.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 78.95% 33.16 5.232 42.11% 0.076 2.3858
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 80.0% 50.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 45 86.67% 67.96 6.477 33.33% -0.514 1.6414
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 45.0 -7.577 50.0% -0.555 -0.4244
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 68.5 4.73 100.0% 0.053 0.9065
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 43.0 -3.023 50.0% -0.432 0.9159
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 0.0% 68.33 -0.975 66.67% -0.593 0.6496
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 50.0% 100.17 12.291 83.33% 0.12 1.594
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 25.0% 31.0 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 20.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 50.0% 52.7 16.384 90.0% 0.063 0.4179
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 10 90.0% 52.8 5.461 40.0% -0.287 0.8791
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 45.45% 30.82 63.64%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 66.67% 37.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 50.0% 43.0 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 83.33% 43.17 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 -2.18 57.14% -0.48 1.4017
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 69 52.17% 101.71 35.304 60.87% 0.105 1.9239

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 30.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 32.43 92.86% 0.272 0.5276 0.369
Dahan Insurrection 4 67 35.82% 88.3 64.18% -0.779 -0.4774 -0.358
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 40.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0% 0.053 0.6646
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 56 19.64% 38.71 60.71% 0.213 0.4067 0.454
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 20.5 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 37 62.16% 98.16 62.16% 0.105 -0.7308 -0.22
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.093
Second Wave 0 21 42.86% 29.67 76.19%
Varied Terrains 2 3 100.0% 28.33 33.33% -0.555 0.1905
Ward the Shores 2 6 83.33% 33.33 50.0% 0.049 1.1038 -0.209

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 39 33.72 51.28% -0.691 1.2187 -0.865
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 44.24 71.43% -0.382 1.3027 -0.288
All Things Weaken 44 38.48 63.64% 0.204 2.2039 -0.806
Back Against the Wall 22 31.64 59.09% 0.123 2.0709 -0.553
Disintegrating Ecosystem 20 37.85 60.0% 0.131 2.1966 -0.016
Downward Spiral 36 38.17 55.56% -0.53
Erosion of Will 41 33.93 68.29% 0.222 2.3297 -0.063
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 50.33 100.0% 0.076 0.6925 0.772
Memory Fades to Dust 45 38.16 55.56% -0.524 1.5329 0.147
Power Corrodes the Spirit 48 38.88 72.92% -0.315 1.6642 -0.402
Promising Farmlands 29 30.69 58.62% -0.652 1.4504 -0.629
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 54.25 100.0% 0.253
Thriving Communities 42 33.36 42.86% -0.916 1.1339 -0.927
Unnatural Proliferation 44 36.89 56.82% -0.681
Untended Land Crumbles 32 31.75 50.0% -1.063 0.9635 -0.593

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 373 46.22% 39.3 77.75% -0.058 0.701 -0.42
B 353 47.01% 38.94 73.65% 0.149 0.8256 -0.613
C 333 50.45% 38.95 76.58% -0.15 0.3753 -0.153
D 291 48.45% 44.41 72.85% -0.11 0.6165 0.426
E 238 41.1% 42.26 79.83% 0.017 0.5765 -0.158
F 154 54.55% 40.92 77.92% 0.122 0.8115 -0.261
G 151 51.33% 36.92 80.13% -0.301 0.3941 0.599
H 175 40.0% 52.19 85.14% 0.339 0.9997 0.589

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 32.0 75.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 20.0% 31.27 81.82% 0.224 0.4647 -0.568
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 13.33% 44.06 100.0% 0.067 -0.3023
Start of Game Growth 21 15.79% 48.43 95.24% 0.124 -0.4991 0.208
Unlimited Undo 64 38.1% 45.8 73.44% 0.067 -0.564 0.556
Using Tokens but Not Events 156 39.87% 47.99 81.41% -0.077 -0.0331 0.555

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 103 22.62 21.36%
II 350 31.05 72.86%
III 370 34.62 83.78%
IV 217 37.86 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 21
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 302
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 215
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 196
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 59
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 20
Win: Scenario condition 46
Lose: Blight pool ran out 134
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)