Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 21.0 -7.992 50.0% -0.722 -0.4323
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 3 0.0% 38.0 0.503 100.0% 0.287 0.7005
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 1 0.0% 78.0 17.01 100.0% 0.062 0.9448
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 5 100.0% 41.6 -0.509 60.0% -0.431 0.8107
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 45.0 4.882 60.0% -0.45 1.0468
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 66.67% 42.67 0.887 33.33% -0.546 1.4966
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 2 0.0% 40.5 0.612 100.0% 0.081 0.122
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 8 75.0% 35.0 0.151 87.5% 0.451 0.4327
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 3 33.33% 41.0 2.793 66.67% -0.173 -0.1592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 66.67% 59.33 6.116 100.0% 0.409 0.6926
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 3 66.67% 65.0 12.688 100.0% 0.224 0.5836
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 5 80.0% 57.0 7.736 60.0% -0.682 0.1432
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 66.67% 64.44 11.554 55.56% -0.557 0.6822
The Kingdom of England 0 1 6 16.67% 37.33 -1.953 100.0% 0.494 0.8239
The Kingdom of England 1 3 3 66.67% 37.33 -5.031 100.0% 0.101 0.6176
The Kingdom of England 2 4 2 0.0% 46.0 3.684 100.0% 0.115 1.0889
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 60.0% 53.8 8.541 80.0% 0.003 1.5824
The Kingdom of England 4 7 3 66.67% 29.67 -6.087 0.0% -1.269 0.2254
The Kingdom of England 6 11 6 100.0% 44.0 4.166 16.67% -1.028 1.2161
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 3 66.67% 20.0 -5.016 33.33% -0.566 -0.0545
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 3 66.67% 39.33 1.447 100.0% 0.331 1.2332
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 66.67% 30.5 -0.767 33.33% -0.745 1.3958
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 66.67% 57.67 10.857 100.0% 0.499 2.6977
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 72.0 14.734 100.0% 0.1 1.9172
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 72.73% 54.0 7.229 45.45% -1.251 0.8403
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 1 0.0% 31.0 -1.103 100.0% 0.125 0.214
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 2 0.0% 47.0 2.559 100.0% 0.168 0.4057
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 1 0.0% 53.0 7.694 100.0% 0.022 0.3119
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 3 66.67% 47.33 2.677 33.33% -0.863 -0.082
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 0.0% 55.0 1.744 100.0% 0.018 1.1858
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 1 100.0% 17.0 -6.21 0.0% -0.415 0.7079
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 1 100.0% 41.0 -0.03 100.0% 0.119 0.5307
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 3 100.0% 50.33 4.818 66.67% -0.3 0.9439
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 17.506 100.0% 0.177 1.2854
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 50.0% 99.0 20.421 100.0% 0.256 2.2395
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 23.81% 115.86 22.525 85.71% -0.406 1.4655

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2 50.0% 36.0 -3.225 100.0% 0.353 0.9187
Dahan Insurrection 4 33 9.09% 99.91 16.615 93.94% 0.257 0.6575
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 40.5 2.173 50.0% -0.213 0.0606
Elemental Invocation 1 2 100.0% 32.5 -2.913 50.0% -0.434 0.0682
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 13 23.08% 40.85 1.176 84.62% 0.05 0.4149
Rituals of Terror 3 4 75.0% 39.5 -3.421 25.0% -0.503 0.1416
Second Wave 0 8 37.5% 26.38 -4.612 75.0% -0.471 -0.041
Ward the Shores 2 3 100.0% 31.0 -5.854 33.33% -0.668 0.3639

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 8 41.5 -1.874 50.0% -0.809 1.2604
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4 36.75 -1.039 100.0% 0.279 2.1914
All Things Weaken 9 34.0 -5.126 55.56% -0.845 1.3144
Back Against the Wall 11 28.0 -6.043 54.55% -1.107 0.9802
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4 35.0 -5.041 50.0% -0.513 1.7095
Downward Spiral 7 23.86 -9.086 71.43% -0.598 1.4241
Erosion of Will 12 44.92 -2.508 66.67% -0.548 1.6593
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 5 51.4 2.79 100.0% 0.538 1.2169
Memory Fades to Dust 11 45.09 2.29 72.73% -0.306 1.9087
Power Corrodes the Spirit 14 35.93 -2.169 57.14% -0.885 1.1358
Promising Farmlands 8 40.75 -0.28 62.5% -0.483 1.7254
Thriving Communities 3 42.67 -1.441 66.67% -0.277 1.8107
Unnatural Proliferation 15 42.67 -1.472 53.33% -1.239 0.8415
Untended Land Crumbles 3 46.0 4.41 66.67% -0.278 1.8241

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 76 43.42% 34.53 -3.165 84.21% 0.338 -0.3494
B 91 47.78% 38.25 -2.488 76.92% -0.322 -1.1058
C 70 50.0% 37.01 -3.283 78.57% -0.214 -1.227
D 74 41.89% 61.57 4.962 81.08% 0.016 -0.7616
E 65 43.08% 47.8 0.807 80.0% -0.137 -1.0313
F 48 45.83% 40.23 -1.545 75.0% -0.351 -1.1923
G 33 53.13% 41.48 -0.973 81.82% 0.019 -0.813
H 61 31.15% 68.51 5.819 91.8% 0.661 -0.1781

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 29.0 -11.4 100.0% 0.012 2.0652
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 50.0% 19.0 -13.938 50.0% -0.711 -0.4965
Skip Initial Invader Actions 9 0.0% 44.78 1.509 100.0% 0.603 -0.0836
Start of Game Growth 13 8.33% 43.62 0.357 92.31% -0.025 -0.494
Unlimited Undo 28 51.85% 45.89 1.946 75.0% -0.524 -0.9474
Using Tokens but Not Events 37 27.78% 41.3 -3.324 91.89% 0.575 0.5239

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25 22.37 20.0%
II 103 30.88 80.58%
III 88 34.39 89.77%
IV 43 37.55 100.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 74
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 54
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 43
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 16
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Scenario condition 1
Win: Scenario condition 32
Lose: Blight pool ran out 27
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)