Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 53.85% 28.85 46.15%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 37.56 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 76.92% 40.31 18.232 53.85% 0.315 1.0471
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 91.67% 48.42 83.33%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 100.0% 42.0 1.105 50.0% -0.177 1.1171
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 12 58.33% 48.92 12.072 16.67% 0.066 2.0068
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 38 47.37% 34.47 2.85 65.79% -0.179 -0.0811
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 61.54% 37.31 80.77%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 26 42.31% 42.12 -5.828 65.38% -0.324 -0.3869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 83.33% 50.42 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 75.0% 59.63 75.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 39 46.15% 42.87 -2.238 30.77% -1.128 0.1547
The Kingdom of England 0 1 23 56.52% 32.3 78.26%
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 60.0% 41.2 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 38.89% 40.28 38.89%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 18 44.44% 44.89 -9.465 61.11% -0.553 0.6081
The Kingdom of England 4 7 18 27.78% 50.11 9.545 61.11% 0.355 1.3697
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 37 67.57% 79.05 9.969 40.54% 0.047 2.066
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 13 46.15% 31.77 13.302 46.15% 0.308 0.6616
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 30.56 66.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 78.95% 33.16 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 71.43% 44.29 0.609 71.43% -0.321 1.0665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 50 80.0% 68.3 3.031 38.0% 0.208 1.564
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 4 25.0% 22.5 -10.697 25.0% -0.823 -0.9094
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 65.0 12.24 100.0% 0.193 0.626
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 100.0% 25.0 -9.485 33.33% -0.594 -0.1903
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 4 50.0% 69.25 15.233 100.0% 0.198 0.53
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 39.2 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 18 27.78% 48.56 -6.552 38.89% -0.377 0.3627
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 21 33.33% 38.67 -4.038 33.33% -0.433 0.8447
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 22.22% 33.0 9.796 66.67% 0.193 0.3428
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 7 28.57% 43.0 19.484 100.0% 0.302 0.2916
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 50.0% 52.7 90.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 19 68.42% 58.68 4.273 57.89% 0.038 0.8433
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 29.17 58.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 4 75.0% 45.5 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 41.67% 45.33 15.57 75.0% 0.802 1.0945
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 10 70.0% 39.5 -6.063 50.0% -0.581 0.5248
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 76 53.95% 99.38 10.284 59.21% -0.401 1.5557

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 50.0% 24.67 83.33% 0.297 0.2189
Blitz 0 16 18.75% 30.44 87.5% -0.25 -0.1036 0.465
Dahan Insurrection 4 83 33.73% 75.45 53.01% -0.815 -1.0219 -0.83
Despicable Theft 2 6 33.33% 13.5 16.67% -0.518 0.1645
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 85 23.53% 42.99 57.65% -0.369 -0.975 0.315
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3 66.67% 13.67 33.33% -0.367 0.1213
Rituals of Terror 3 39 61.54% 98.49 61.54% -0.224 -0.1187 -0.268
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.217
Second Wave 0 27 37.04% 31.37 81.48% 0.617 0.6792
Varied Terrains 2 5 60.0% 17.0 20.0% -0.417 0.1458 -0.446
Ward the Shores 2 7 71.43% 28.57 42.86% -0.347 0.8623 -0.269

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 33.72 48.84% 0.034 0.3055 -0.734
Aid From Lesser Spirits 23 42.26 69.57% 0.275 0.3132 -0.158
All Things Weaken 45 38.16 62.22% -0.775
Attenuated Essence 1 48.0 0.0% -0.042 0.1637 -0.091
Back Against the Wall 26 31.35 57.69% -0.51
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 2 38.0 50.0% -0.38 0.0342 0.147
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 8.0 0.0% -0.319 -0.0139
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 35.59 54.55% 0.049
Downward Spiral 47 36.74 57.45% -0.025 0.3275 -0.487
Erosion of Will 50 32.98 64.0% -0.008 0.4007 -0.336
Intensifying Exploitation 1 35.0 100.0% 0.1 0.4873
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 18 44.56 88.89% 0.082 -0.4429 0.836
Memory Fades to Dust 49 42.53 59.18% 0.468 0.9489 0.705
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53 39.08 71.7% 0.193 0.4972 -0.046
Promising Farmlands 32 32.31 59.38% 0.5 1.0864 -0.637
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 4.0 0.0% -0.161 0.0176
Slow Dissolution of Will 2 26.5 0.0% -0.453 0.0802 -0.07
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 52.15 92.31% -0.059
The Border of Life and Death 1 29.0 100.0% 0.488 0.3588
Thriving Communities 49 34.08 46.94% 0.36 0.853 -0.804
Thriving Crops 2 19.0 50.0% -0.015 0.0735 -0.478
Unnatural Proliferation 50 35.88 56.0% 0.473 0.7701 -0.373
Untended Land Crumbles 34 32.38 50.0% 0.288 0.6457 -0.444

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 455 44.91% 38.38 74.51% 0.308 1.1478 -0.329
B 432 44.65% 37.38 69.91% -0.06 0.7184 -0.759
C 434 45.16% 36.19 69.12% -0.27 0.3842 -0.495
D 348 46.26% 41.95 69.83% -0.031 0.7682 0.459
E 299 38.72% 38.12 71.91% -0.693 -0.0638 -0.29
F 180 51.67% 39.16 75.56% -0.358 0.3617 -0.098
G 190 46.03% 36.27 78.95% 0.293 1.0345 0.784
H 203 37.93% 51.02 85.71% 0.82 1.4681 0.738

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 32.0 75.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 15.38% 29.93 78.57% -0.176 0.1562 -0.598
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 13.33% 44.06 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 26 25.0% 44.38 84.62% -0.177 -0.5075 0.25
Unlimited Undo 92 34.07% 42.59 65.22% -0.891 -0.9127 0.584
Using Tokens but Not Events 201 36.87% 44.01 75.12% -0.654 -0.7075 0.588

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 181 21.03 13.81%
II 428 31.04 72.9%
III 428 34.74 83.88%
IV 239 38.02 99.58%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 351
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 271
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 218
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 60
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 65
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 29
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 160
Lose: Spirit destroyed 16

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)