Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 10 60.0% 26.6 -5.715 30.0% -0.735 -0.1836
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 37.56 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 80.0% 42.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 10 90.0% 47.2 80.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 45.0 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 7 57.14% 53.0 14.29%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 32 53.13% 35.59 0.962 65.63% -0.035 0.2089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 25 64.0% 37.44 0.786 80.0% -0.287 -0.4135
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 17 35.29% 48.65 8.564 76.47% 0.388 0.5044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 10 90.0% 50.0 70.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 83.33% 57.17 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 16 56.25% 67.25 5.172 50.0% -0.619 0.9557
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 54.55% 33.18 -1.583 81.82% -0.11 0.406
The Kingdom of England 1 3 9 66.67% 41.33 0.478 66.67% -0.303 0.3067
The Kingdom of England 2 4 6 50.0% 32.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 50.0% 48.64 64.29%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 11 45.45% 47.45 21.691 45.45% 0.17 1.7492
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 0.252 20.0% -0.16 1.5778
The Kingdom of England 6 11 31 74.19% 79.1 17.094 38.71% -0.321 1.9775
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 29.75 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 6 66.67% 38.83 100.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 18 77.78% 32.06 38.89%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 80.0% 50.0 -11.208 80.0% -0.515 1.8688
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 42 85.71% 68.4 10.455 33.33% -0.381 1.9866
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 1 0.0% 76.0 1.161 100.0% 0.038 -0.086
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 82.0 23.592 100.0% 0.343 1.2134
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 2 50.0% 43.0 4.664 50.0% -0.249 0.9863
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 1 0.0% 111.0 21.691 100.0% 0.17 1.6017
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 4 75.0% 113.5 21.506 75.0% 0.095 1.7934
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 25.0% 31.0 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 20.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 7.238 88.89% 0.123 0.5764
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 9 55.56% 49.56 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 8 87.5% 51.13 16.833 37.5% 0.419 1.6103
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 45.45% 30.82 -3.495 63.64% -0.163 -0.2194
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 3 66.67% 37.67 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 50.0% 43.0 7.464 70.0% 0.582 1.2929
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 83.33% 43.17 2.804 50.0% -0.281 1.0581
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 -1.747 57.14% -0.334 1.6031
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 68 52.94% 100.9 14.619 60.29% -0.977 1.0421

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.182 -0.0199
Blitz 0 12 25.0% 34.17 91.67% 0.484 0.7414 0.38
Dahan Insurrection 4 63 36.51% 90.27 65.08% 0.307 0.7198 -0.172
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 40.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 3 100.0% 41.67 66.67%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 53 20.75% 37.45 58.49% -1.032 -0.7268 0.536
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 20.5 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 36 63.89% 96.53 61.11% 0.59 0.7113 -0.168
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.115
Second Wave 0 21 42.86% 29.67 76.19%
Varied Terrains 2 2 100.0% 35.5 50.0% -0.289 0.2365
Ward the Shores 2 5 100.0% 33.2 40.0% -0.209

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 35 34.97 51.43% -0.764 1.1394 -0.744
Aid From Lesser Spirits 20 43.2 75.0% -0.379 1.3504 -0.21
All Things Weaken 41 37.46 60.98% -0.212 1.7733 -0.782
Back Against the Wall 20 30.0 55.0% -0.302 1.515 -0.469
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 36.05 57.89% 0.035 2.0855 -0.209
Downward Spiral 36 38.17 55.56% 0.083 2.0758 -0.5
Erosion of Will 38 33.32 65.79% -0.259 1.8236 -0.057
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 14 50.14 100.0% 0.528 0.9688 0.777
Memory Fades to Dust 40 38.02 52.5% -0.386 1.6984 0.075
Power Corrodes the Spirit 47 39.09 72.34% -0.472 1.4664 -0.299
Promising Farmlands 28 31.5 60.71% -0.424 1.6223 -0.603
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 54.25 100.0% 0.485 0.9098 0.266
Thriving Communities 37 33.73 43.24% -1.003 0.9808 -0.7
Unnatural Proliferation 44 36.89 56.82% -0.723 1.2413 -0.589
Untended Land Crumbles 28 31.25 50.0% -1.068 0.9256 -0.6

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 338 47.76% 39.13 77.22% -0.069 0.7283 -0.233
B 317 48.89% 38.89 72.24% 0.149 0.8925 -0.646
C 304 51.32% 38.53 75.33% -0.495 0.0736 -0.255
D 275 49.45% 44.2 72.36% -0.232 0.564 0.542
E 220 41.28% 42.13 79.09% -0.226 0.4208 -0.117
F 141 53.19% 40.77 77.3% -0.402 0.3219 -0.443
G 144 51.75% 36.74 80.56% 0.183 0.9148 0.55
H 164 40.85% 52.43 84.76% 1.101 1.8137 0.612

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 32.0 75.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 33.33% 29.71 71.43% -0.529
Skip Initial Invader Actions 16 14.29% 44.5 100.0% 0.023 -0.1191
Start of Game Growth 19 17.65% 49.11 94.74% 0.194 -0.5668 0.209
Unlimited Undo 63 38.71% 45.94 73.02% 0.553 -0.0511 0.606
Using Tokens but Not Events 148 40.0% 47.91 80.41% 0.635 0.4786 0.531

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 97 22.56 20.62%
II 324 30.98 71.3%
III 335 34.53 83.88%
IV 200 37.77 99.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 19
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 274
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 193
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 179
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 55
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 20
Win: Scenario condition 43
Lose: Blight pool ran out 126
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)