Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 28.42 -2.616 41.67% 0.084 0.5915
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 37.56 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 80.0% 42.3 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 90.91% 47.91 81.82%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 45.0 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 10 70.0% 46.1 10.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 35 51.43% 35.89 0.128 68.57% 0.299 0.2516
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 61.54% 37.31 -1.246 80.77% 0.073 -0.1591
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 20 35.0% 49.45 0.999 80.0% 0.144 0.3331
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 83.33% 50.42 -1.57 66.67% -0.196 0.1626
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 75.0% 59.63 7.029 75.0% 0.17 1.337
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 21 61.9% 69.1 7.167 52.38% -0.497 0.9497
The Kingdom of England 0 1 23 56.52% 32.3 -7.512 78.26% -0.392 0.1649
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 60.0% 41.2 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 14 42.86% 43.5 1.689 50.0% -0.178 0.9757
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 50.0% 50.5 10.734 68.75% 0.075 1.7521
The Kingdom of England 4 7 13 38.46% 49.85 7.577 53.85% 0.194 1.6612
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 35 68.57% 79.31 17.405 40.0% -0.337 2.2261
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 29.75 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 30.56 -5.205 66.67% -0.692 0.3798
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 78.95% 33.16 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 80.0% 50.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 47 82.98% 69.36 10.579 36.17% -0.428 1.747
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 45.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 1 100.0% 13.0 -6.874 0.0% -0.575 0.6278
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 2 50.0% 68.5 6.277 100.0% 0.139 0.9979
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 39.2 -1.98 20.0% -0.779 0.4389
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 13 30.77% 58.31 2.646 53.85% -0.751 0.4868
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 50.0% 100.17 12.954 83.33% 0.063 1.621
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 8 25.0% 31.0 62.5%
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 20.0% 37.6 100.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 50.0% 52.7 12.823 90.0% 0.028 0.4799
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 62.5% 61.88 9.727 56.25% -0.31 0.8482
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 45.45% 30.82 63.64%
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 4 75.0% 45.5 8.404 100.0% 0.021 0.8241
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 10 50.0% 43.0 70.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 83.33% 43.17 50.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 70 52.86% 100.94 18.202 60.0% -0.126 1.8442

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 30.0 100.0%
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 32.43 92.86% 0.049 0.4916 0.449
Dahan Insurrection 4 69 37.68% 87.23 62.32% -0.699 -0.6015 -0.479
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 40.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0% 0.139 0.6846
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 76 19.74% 43.67 60.53% -0.5 -0.2684 0.238
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 20.5 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 37 62.16% 98.16 62.16% 0.135 -0.1011 -0.212
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.185
Second Wave 0 21 42.86% 29.67 76.19%
Varied Terrains 2 3 100.0% 28.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 6 83.33% 33.33 50.0% 0.249 1.1298 -0.217

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 40 33.55 50.0% -0.202 1.7688 -0.91
Aid From Lesser Spirits 21 44.24 71.43% -0.209 1.5682 -0.318
All Things Weaken 44 38.48 63.64% 0.043 2.0921 -0.769
Back Against the Wall 25 30.44 56.0% -0.088 1.8507 -0.508
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 35.59 54.55% -0.967 1.1613 -0.019
Downward Spiral 37 39.0 56.76% 0.021 1.9825 -0.461
Erosion of Will 41 33.93 68.29% 0.03 2.1118 -0.086
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 15 50.33 100.0% 0.797
Memory Fades to Dust 46 38.89 56.52% 0.589 2.7298 0.476
Power Corrodes the Spirit 51 38.67 70.59% -0.456 1.5242 -0.384
Promising Farmlands 30 31.5 56.67% -0.472 1.5495 -0.81
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 54.25 100.0% 0.243
Thriving Communities 45 32.93 42.22% -0.481 1.5785 -0.941
Unnatural Proliferation 47 36.47 55.32% -0.645 1.3115 -0.423
Untended Land Crumbles 32 31.75 50.0% -0.579

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 394 45.52% 39.59 77.16% -0.105 0.631 -0.287
B 386 46.35% 38.73 71.5% -1.402 -0.7048 -0.886
C 355 49.3% 39.18 75.49% 0.021 0.4904 -0.133
D 304 48.36% 44.1 72.7% -0.401 0.3082 0.47
E 246 40.16% 42.18 80.08% 0.285 0.8295 -0.121
F 158 54.43% 41.36 78.48% 0.532 1.1932 -0.212
G 156 49.68% 37.54 80.77% 0.6 1.2304 0.538
H 180 38.89% 52.56 85.56% 0.481 1.1453 0.64

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 32.0 75.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 20.0% 31.27 81.82% -0.644
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 13.33% 44.06 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 22 15.0% 48.14 95.45% 0.245 -0.2118 0.28
Unlimited Undo 78 36.36% 46.37 73.08% 0.217 -0.3343 0.81
Using Tokens but Not Events 169 38.55% 48.13 81.07% 0.152 0.3066 0.564

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 116 22.65 21.55%
II 380 31.08 73.16%
III 382 34.66 83.77%
IV 218 37.91 99.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 312
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 238
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 197
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 61
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 26
Win: Scenario condition 46
Lose: Blight pool ran out 143
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)