Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 13 53.85% 28.85 -0.207 46.15% 0.122 0.4913
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 9 33.33% 37.56 77.78%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 76.92% 40.31 3.194 53.85% -0.197 0.7848
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 91.67% 48.42 5.128 83.33% 0.087 1.407
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 100.0% 45.0 60.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 11 63.64% 47.91 7.718 18.18% 0.047 2.3369
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 35 51.43% 35.89 3.015 68.57% 0.245 0.1271
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 26 61.54% 37.31 80.77%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 24 45.83% 45.63 -5.071 70.83% -1.18 -1.071
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 17 58.82% 54.88 76.47%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 12 83.33% 50.42 66.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 8 75.0% 59.63 6.437 75.0% 0.109 1.0487
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 21 61.9% 69.1 52.38%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 23 56.52% 32.3 -4.925 78.26% -0.408 -0.0474
The Kingdom of England 1 3 10 60.0% 41.2 70.0%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 38.89% 40.28 -0.09 38.89% -0.717 0.3167
The Kingdom of England 3 6 16 50.0% 50.5 68.75%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 16 31.25% 52.13 8.546 62.5% 0.304 1.7098
The Kingdom of England 5 9 10 100.0% 55.8 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 35 68.57% 79.31 40.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 50.0% 29.75 41.67%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 66.67% 30.56 -4.64 66.67% -0.566 0.5019
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 19 78.95% 33.16 42.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 80.0% 50.0 80.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 4 25.0% 46.75 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 48 81.25% 69.54 17.472 37.5% 0.146 2.2662
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 2 50.0% 45.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 100.0% 65.0 8.357 100.0% 0.125 1.0188
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 2 100.0% 32.5 8.758 50.0% 0.152 1.15
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 66.67% 72.67 9.255 100.0% 0.074 0.7595
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 20.0% 39.2 20.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 17 29.41% 51.41 0.889 41.18% -0.801 0.4726
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 8 62.5% 87.38 -3.344 75.0% -0.531 1.1172
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 9 22.22% 33.0 8.04 66.67% 0.165 0.253
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 6 16.67% 36.33 0.187 100.0% 0.519 0.5557
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 9 55.56% 43.0 88.89%
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 50.0% 52.7 90.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 6 50.0% 50.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 2 50.0% 40.5 50.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 18 66.67% 58.61 8.819 55.56% 0.023 1.0896
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 12 50.0% 29.17 -8.953 58.33% -0.355 -0.7069
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 4 75.0% 45.5 11.259 100.0% 0.066 0.8356
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 45.45% 43.27 1.723 72.73% 0.053 0.352
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 8 87.5% 49.38 5.484 62.5% 0.143 1.4593
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 2 50.0% 90.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 71.43% 91.14 57.14%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 71 52.11% 101.52 19.867 60.56% -0.136 1.843

Results using Scenarios

Scenario Difficulty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 3 0.0% 28.67 100.0% 0.058 -0.3893
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 32.43 92.86% 0.411
Dahan Insurrection 4 70 37.14% 88.01 62.86% -0.136 -0.1158 -0.412
Despicable Theft 2 2 100.0% 40.5 50.0%
Elemental Invocation 1 4 100.0% 45.0 75.0%
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 83 22.89% 43.02 57.83% -0.399 -0.3578 0.143
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 100.0% 20.5 50.0%
Rituals of Terror 3 37 62.16% 98.16 62.16% -0.2
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 66.67% 71.33 66.67% 0.171
Second Wave 0 21 42.86% 29.67 76.19%
Varied Terrains 2 3 100.0% 28.33 33.33%
Ward the Shores 2 6 83.33% 33.33 50.0% -0.239

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 41 33.24 48.78% -0.621 1.1095 -0.914
Aid From Lesser Spirits 22 43.0 68.18% -0.45 1.126 -0.324
All Things Weaken 45 38.16 62.22% -0.479 1.3989 -0.825
Back Against the Wall 26 31.35 57.69% -0.179 1.4575 -0.517
Disintegrating Ecosystem 22 35.59 54.55% -0.408 1.4345 -0.05
Downward Spiral 41 38.22 56.1% -0.28 1.418 -0.667
Erosion of Will 48 33.23 66.67% -0.963 0.9376 -0.188
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 17 45.47 88.24% -0.678 -0.1778 0.78
Memory Fades to Dust 47 39.79 57.45% 0.593 2.4691 0.488
Power Corrodes the Spirit 53 39.08 71.7% -0.076 1.629 -0.281
Promising Farmlands 31 32.26 58.06% 0.069 1.9445 -0.795
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 13 52.15 92.31% -0.531 -0.321 -0.125
Thriving Communities 47 33.04 44.68% -0.483 1.3872 -1.036
Unnatural Proliferation 48 36.13 54.17% -0.307 1.4467 -0.476
Untended Land Crumbles 33 31.03 48.48% -0.619

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 417 46.38% 39.29 76.26% -0.176 0.6011 -0.34
B 404 46.02% 38.44 70.79% -1.122 -0.4188 -0.802
C 376 49.2% 39.47 75.27% 0.248 0.7758 -0.233
D 317 48.9% 44.31 72.56% -0.288 0.4467 0.442
E 255 41.11% 42.18 79.61% 0.226 0.8095 0.026
F 162 54.94% 41.02 77.78% -0.037 0.67 -0.292
G 163 49.38% 38.09 80.98% 0.384 1.0264 0.644
H 184 39.13% 52.24 85.87% 0.774 1.4194 0.563

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 32.0 75.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 13 16.67% 32.23 84.62% 0.277 0.4483 -0.64
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 13.33% 44.06 100.0%
Start of Game Growth 25 21.74% 45.08 88.0% 0.231 -0.1917 0.263
Unlimited Undo 85 35.71% 45.78 70.59% 0.045 -0.3704 0.617
Using Tokens but Not Events 173 39.41% 47.75 80.35% 0.036 0.1511 0.508

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 124 22.63 20.16%
II 390 31.12 73.08%
III 403 34.7 83.37%
IV 228 37.97 99.56%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 328
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 244
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 207
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 64
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 29
Win: Scenario condition 47
Lose: Blight pool ran out 151
Lose: Spirit destroyed 15

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)