Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 8 25.0% 31.25 87.5% 0.128 -0.074 0.434
Blitz 0 172 44.19% 31.22 71.51% 0.026 0.2835 -0.613
Dahan Insurrection 4 475 15.79% 63.72 90.74% -0.088 0.3251 0.674
Despicable Theft 2 44 43.18% 40.14 88.64% 0.325 0.7708 0.92
Elemental Invocation 1 98 55.1% 31.65 76.53% -0.465 0.021 -0.811
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1122 13.04% 50.86 83.24% -0.138 0.1671 0.256
Powers Long Forgotten 1 59 55.93% 31.02 59.32% -0.142 0.0403 0.008
Rituals of Terror 3 61 53.33% 37.51 72.13% 0.045 0.1657 -0.075
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 88.0% 38.44 60.0% 0.0 0.4151 0.059
Second Wave 0 532 45.21% 28.98 78.2% -0.154 0.4123 -0.483
The Great River 3 294 49.83% 33.46 65.99% 0.053 1.4506 -0.603
Varied Terrains 2 7 42.86% 38.29 71.43% -0.279 0.2471 -0.245
Ward the Shores 2 114 46.9% 40.84 70.18% 0.244 1.4061 -0.384

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 504 36.97 60.12% -1.425 0.4776 -0.896
Aid From Lesser Spirits 523 39.35 65.77% -1.397 0.3326 -0.3
All Things Weaken 555 32.18 56.76% -0.909 1.0763 -0.833
Back Against the Wall 482 36.4 61.2% -1.348 0.4686 -0.65
Disintegrating Ecosystem 542 32.54 54.98% -1.359 0.6913 -1.256
Downward Spiral 585 31.58 58.97% -1.791 0.2021 -0.897
Erosion of Will 485 34.08 56.08% -1.984 0.0994 -0.89
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 240 41.72 83.75% 0.099 0.5399 -0.395
Memory Fades to Dust 657 32.66 58.45% -0.845 1.2395 -0.733
Power Corrodes the Spirit 501 30.69 53.49% -1.773 0.1651 -1.231
Promising Farmlands 437 31.13 52.86% -1.676 0.3694 -1.284
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 169 37.87 85.8% -0.15 0.2742 -0.457
Thriving Communities 560 29.98 51.61% -1.76 0.2237 -0.838
Unnatural Proliferation 549 33.64 56.28% -2.151 -0.1868 -0.856
Untended Land Crumbles 521 31.11 54.32% -1.18 0.8135 -1.183

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5288 39.71% 41.46 81.05% -0.065 0.7326 0.084
B 4865 41.6% 38.99 78.21% 0.389 1.1328 0.161
C 5887 39.89% 41.96 80.67% 0.295 0.863 0.457
D 4510 38.36% 40.66 81.0% 0.255 1.051 0.151
E 4365 39.97% 41.1 81.15% 0.733 1.3798 0.333
F 3903 40.61% 39.47 79.94% 0.306 1.0303 0.14
G 3483 38.92% 39.25 81.34% 0.246 0.978 0.378
H 3626 38.6% 41.68 81.63% 0.232 0.9446 0.414
East 873 45.06% 42.06 72.28% -0.304 0.4644 0.022
Northeast 537 44.76% 43.16 73.18% -0.33 0.5297 -0.248
Northwest 492 45.92% 42.36 70.93% 0.049 1.1253 -0.803
Southeast 373 38.98% 41.94 73.99% -0.011 0.6951 -0.231
Southwest 335 40.96% 41.25 75.22% 0.132 1.2577 0.323
West 835 47.89% 41.13 69.94% -0.479 0.4749 -0.647

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 244 0.0% 21.53 77.87% -0.105 2.0242 0.209
Not Using Events or Tokens 345 53.1% 23.31 69.28% -0.94 -0.7654 -0.642
Skip Initial Invader Actions 537 14.84% 42.24 92.55% 0.631 0.4884 0.391
Start of Game Growth 769 22.36% 45.1 88.69% -0.041 -0.8018 -0.413
Unlimited Undo 1521 37.1% 38.51 84.16% 0.237 -0.3672 0.417
Using Tokens but Not Events 1947 24.26% 36.55 89.57% 0.452 0.296 0.416

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.77%
Lightning's Boon 95.32%
Raging Storm 88.59%
Shatter Homesteads 98.12%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1944 22.56 33.28%
II 8562 30.98 77.81%
III 5127 34.53 90.58%
IV 1182 37.77 99.66%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 647
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4544
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6225
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1171
Lose: Invader deck ran out 80
Lose: Adversary condition 1022
Win: Sacrifice victory 33
Lose: Scenario condition 212
Win: Scenario condition 511
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2295
Lose: Spirit destroyed 75

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.93 Win Model: 0.203
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4386 55.16% 27.97 70.63%
2 6489 45.45% 38.89 79.75%
3 3075 38.46% 43.07 80.68%
4 2411 32.01% 45.21 81.96%
5 107 17.76% 56.66 95.33%
6 347 24.93% 45.54 86.17%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)