Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 35.71% 30.36 85.71% 0.188 -0.2588 0.362
Blitz 0 193 44.27% 31.78 70.47% -0.724 -0.2677 -0.511
Dahan Insurrection 4 527 15.02% 63.4 90.7% 0.503 0.5225 0.677
Despicable Theft 2 52 44.23% 40.21 86.54% -0.364 0.1483 0.958
Elemental Invocation 1 114 56.14% 32.65 74.56% -0.266 0.4336 -0.87
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1254 12.95% 51.76 83.57% 0.576 0.6172 0.214
Powers Long Forgotten 1 67 55.22% 32.22 59.7% 0.081 0.6424 0.006
Rituals of Terror 3 67 53.03% 39.01 71.64% 0.514 0.2265 0.214
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 88.46% 38.31 61.54% 0.166 0.5958 0.062
Second Wave 0 633 44.14% 29.27 78.36% -0.437 0.0249 -0.611
The Great River 3 307 50.0% 33.13 65.15% -1.41 0.3567 -0.626
Varied Terrains 2 44 43.18% 33.73 79.55% -0.217 0.6109 -0.656
Ward the Shores 2 122 47.11% 41.06 72.13% 0.582 1.3255 -0.309

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4553 53.72% 27.86 71.93% 0.261 0.8111 -0.006
1 Thematic 314 68.52% 29.56 55.1% 0.702 1.6995 -0.192
2 Archipelago 25 48.0% 38.44 88.0% 0.28 0.8974 -0.191
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 4264 46.64% 38.67 79.15% 0.61 1.0197 0.486
2 Coastline 1169 41.85% 41.48 81.44% 0.614 0.7498 0.481
2 Fragment 130 55.47% 43.05 77.69% 0.289 0.2839 1.313
2 Heart 75 50.67% 38.55 68.0% -1.583 -1.1085 -0.557
2 Opposite Shores 1202 43.66% 38.58 80.03% 0.942 1.2952 0.488
2 Thematic 294 49.48% 36.27 71.09% 0.189 1.119 -0.261
2 Top to Top 210 43.2% 46.35 87.62% 0.528 0.6551 1.069
3 Archipelago 30 43.33% 47.7 73.33% -0.867 -0.6885 -0.452
3 Coastline 176 28.41% 51.88 89.2% -0.28 -0.6971 0.302
3 Other 124 31.15% 35.88 93.55% 1.188 0.4686 0.994
3 Round (Default) 3062 38.85% 43.33 79.85% 0.288 0.482 -0.07
3 Sunrise 21 61.9% 57.1 80.95% 0.0 0.1488 0.549
3 Thematic 99 49.49% 46.34 81.82% 0.452 0.4666 0.486
4 Archipelago 26 26.92% 45.77 65.38% 0.0 -0.4195 -1.873
4 Coastline 143 11.19% 63.47 95.1% 0.0 -0.0727 0.77
4 Leaf 15 40.0% 40.73 80.0% 0.058 -0.0386 -0.223
4 Other 194 25.26% 42.06 94.33% 0.195 -0.421 1.759
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 369 41.85% 46.82 71.0% -0.364 -0.0818 -1.018
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1980 35.33% 44.69 80.51% -1.245 -1.057 -0.756
5 Archipelago 7 42.86% 48.57 71.43% 0.0 -0.3838 -0.325
5 Coastline 84 7.14% 67.7 96.43% -1.107 -0.9996 -0.043
5 Other 149 29.53% 50.66 89.26% -0.409 -1.0397 -0.129
5 Thematic 15 46.67% 56.47 93.33% 0.028 -0.9466 0.886
6 Archipelago 14 14.29% 59.07 100.0% 0.014 -0.0559 0.329
6 Coastline 18 5.56% 70.11 100.0% 0.056 -0.8937 0.241
6 Other 90 17.98% 55.54 91.11% 0.436 0.1942 -0.179
6 Star 34 35.29% 43.82 70.59% 0.0 0.5458 -1.925
6 Thematic 157 32.05% 43.46 82.8% -1.42 -1.3737 -1.128
6 Two Centers (Default) 180 25.7% 45.07 91.11% -0.223 0.2397 -0.629
7 Archipelago 4 0.0% 56.5 75.0% 0.0 -0.221 -0.696
7 Other 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.146 -0.2148 0.037

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 563 37.55 60.57% -0.904 0.8266 -0.967
Aid From Lesser Spirits 593 40.47 65.09% -0.454 1.1213 -0.538
All Things Weaken 638 33.22 56.58% -1.224 0.6536 -0.813
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% -0.337 0.5171 -0.598
Back Against the Wall 559 37.11 60.64% -1.653 -0.0167 -0.8
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 35.0 0.0% -0.261 0.7475 -0.598
Disintegrating Ecosystem 601 33.36 55.07% -0.804 1.0391 -1.309
Downward Spiral 666 32.31 59.31% -0.967 0.7313 -0.879
Erosion of Will 560 35.31 55.36% -1.448 0.4519 -1.024
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 281 42.97 83.27% 0.844 1.3443 -0.433
Memory Fades to Dust 730 32.94 58.77% -0.608 1.2685 -0.703
Power Corrodes the Spirit 577 31.58 54.25% -0.498 1.2067 -1.344
Promising Farmlands 492 32.44 54.47% -0.748 1.1275 -1.187
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 35.0 0.0% -0.261 0.895 -0.599
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.506 0.9647 -0.627
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 208 38.99 86.54% -0.32 -0.1095 -0.293
Thriving Communities 641 31.13 52.26% -0.757 1.1131 -0.987
Unnatural Proliferation 639 34.52 55.71% -1.066 0.6881 -1.034
Untended Land Crumbles 610 32.21 54.59% -1.182 0.6321 -1.13

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 6137 39.47% 42.41 81.15% 0.439 1.2162 0.178
B 5620 41.57% 39.95 78.51% 0.013 0.7167 0.137
C 6841 39.92% 42.58 80.82% 0.157 0.6848 0.423
D 5244 38.91% 41.34 80.63% -0.268 0.4667 0.073
E 5017 40.04% 41.76 81.0% 0.176 0.76 0.316
F 4493 40.8% 40.21 79.7% -0.533 0.1741 0.087
G 4044 39.44% 39.74 80.89% 0.334 0.9764 0.236
H 4147 38.69% 42.25 81.41% -0.084 0.5612 0.373
East 1004 45.45% 42.39 72.01% -0.374 0.2174 0.011
Northeast 631 45.86% 43.31 72.27% -0.212 0.465 -0.159
Northwest 572 46.14% 42.91 71.33% -0.107 0.3304 -0.888
Southeast 450 38.53% 43.13 75.56% 0.343 1.0061 -0.093
Southwest 410 39.8% 42.88 76.83% 0.431 1.6023 0.29
West 949 47.83% 41.71 70.28% -0.645 0.173 -0.389

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 280 0.0% 21.47 77.14% -0.667 1.4088 -0.167
Not Using Events or Tokens 381 52.23% 22.81 69.55% -0.86 -0.688 -0.733
Skip Initial Invader Actions 607 14.2% 43.54 93.08% 1.163 0.1042 1.027
Start of Game Growth 849 21.57% 45.68 89.16% 0.405 -0.0168 -0.441
Unlimited Undo 1750 37.65% 39.12 83.71% -0.461 -0.8759 0.397
Using Tokens but Not Events 2266 24.2% 36.98 88.57% 0.03 0.146 0.275

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1456 100.0% 40.96 100.0% -0.157 -0.3359 -0.221
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 327 100.0% 33.76 100.0% 0.178 0.1926 -0.315
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 923 100.0% 37.57 100.0% 0.744 0.4985 -0.107
Downpour Drenches the World 360 100.0% 57.03 100.0% 0.521 0.9086 -0.149
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 5 100.0% 28.6 100.0% -1.279 -1.0434 -0.386
Eyes Watch From the Trees 814 100.0% 38.99 100.0% -0.687 -1.1601 -0.143
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 692 100.0% 37.1 100.0% -0.269 -0.7156 -0.845
Finder of Paths Unseen 76 100.0% 47.61 100.0% 0.33 0.6939 0.373
Fractured Days Split the Sky 547 100.0% 45.71 100.0% -0.05 0.0537 0.618
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 238 100.0% 42.72 100.0% 0.291 0.2264 0.539
Heart of the Wildfire 442 100.0% 37.2 100.0% -0.373 -0.1139 -0.544
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2507 100.0% 49.6 100.0% 0.968 0.3849 0.414
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1484 100.0% 44.89 100.0% 0.029 -0.0919 0.234
Many Minds Move as One 394 100.0% 38.5 100.0% -0.106 -0.7295 0.575
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2696 100.0% 53.15 100.0% 0.482 0.3542 0.458
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 616 100.0% 35.94 100.0% 0.035 -0.0484 0.012
River Surges in Sunlight 1985 157.63% 55.0 122.47% 0.369 0.1771 0.79
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1243 36.93% 36.43 79.32% -0.13 0.1576 -0.217
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 784 51.15% 55.06 75.89% 0.539 0.1761 0.172
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1029 100.0% 46.73 100.0% 0.352 0.1785 0.139
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 103 573.73% 26.17 274.76% -1.194 -0.801 -0.757
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 15 13.33% 28.27 86.67% -0.239 -0.1422 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 53 45.28% 46.28 84.91% 0.064 0.1386 1.003
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 493 42.06% 34.06 77.28% 0.39 0.3543 -0.006
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 386 37.73% 33.01 84.97% 0.331 0.3343 0.509
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 645 100.0% 43.73 100.0% -0.106 -0.3064 0.337
Shifting Memory of Ages 367 100.0% 38.58 100.0% -0.619 -0.3902 -0.002
Shroud of Silent Mist 309 100.0% 30.87 100.0% 0.319 0.5031 -0.665
Starlight Seeks its Form 723 100.0% 52.12 100.0% 0.121 -0.0352 0.6
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 840 100.0% 32.96 100.0% -0.479 -0.7423 -0.516
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 601 100.0% 42.21 100.0% -0.023 0.0393 0.305
Thunderspeaker 730 100.0% 41.38 100.0% 0.172 0.0955 -0.158
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 413 100.0% 35.94 100.0% -0.263 -0.525 0.103
Vital Strength of the Earth 412 179.01% 32.45 135.92% 0.425 1.1778 -0.161
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 96 39.58% 42.39 80.21% -0.023 0.5549 -0.484
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 493 42.41% 29.51 73.83% -0.483 0.667 -0.995
Volcano Looming High 546 100.0% 42.45 100.0% 0.158 0.154 -0.041

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.61%
Lightning's Boon 95.47%
Raging Storm 87.4%
Shatter Homesteads 97.62%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2278 22.63 32.22%
II 9769 31.12 78.2%
III 5829 34.7 90.82%
IV 1355 37.97 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 734
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5183
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7153
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1343
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 26
Lose: Invader deck ran out 87
Lose: Adversary condition 1189
Win: Sacrifice victory 39
Lose: Scenario condition 231
Win: Scenario condition 566
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2594
Lose: Spirit destroyed 86

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.76 Win Model: -0.14

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.995 Win Model: 0.367
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4880 54.69% 28.0 70.86%
2 7417 45.64% 39.4 79.52%
3 3527 38.61% 43.74 80.66%
4 2741 33.6% 46.0 81.21%
5 181 17.13% 56.94 92.82%
6 485 26.56% 46.86 87.22%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)