Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 20.0% 30.1 90.0% 0.265 0.7051 0.404
Blitz 0 180 43.58% 31.12 71.67% -0.107 0.1494 -0.625
Dahan Insurrection 4 495 15.56% 63.49 90.51% 0.01 0.3118 0.756
Despicable Theft 2 48 45.83% 39.33 87.5% 0.002 0.547 0.867
Elemental Invocation 1 104 55.77% 31.55 75.96% -0.061 0.5501 -0.934
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1182 12.97% 51.47 83.16% -0.696 -0.5018 0.248
Powers Long Forgotten 1 60 55.0% 31.38 60.0% 0.033 0.2779 -0.019
Rituals of Terror 3 63 51.61% 38.32 73.02% 0.32 -0.5166 0.058
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 88.0% 38.44 60.0% 0.0 0.5254 0.049
Second Wave 0 583 45.2% 28.89 77.7% -0.814 -0.2414 -0.586
The Great River 3 301 49.67% 33.34 65.78% -0.719 0.9199 -0.665
Varied Terrains 2 20 45.0% 35.1 75.0% -0.719 0.0268 -0.066
Ward the Shores 2 116 47.83% 40.79 70.69% 0.209 1.2634 -0.357

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4332 53.91% 27.9 71.98% 0.09 0.5352 -0.267
1 Thematic 297 68.4% 29.15 54.55% -0.387 0.2448 -0.38
2 Archipelago 22 54.55% 33.36 86.36% 0.0 0.0128 -0.623
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3948 46.69% 38.31 79.1% -0.01 0.3349 0.25
2 Coastline 1108 41.63% 41.55 81.41% 0.582 0.6649 0.303
2 Fragment 126 56.45% 43.04 77.78% 0.556 0.6444 1.224
2 Heart 58 39.66% 38.47 86.21% -0.049 0.5623 0.46
2 Opposite Shores 1132 43.76% 38.0 79.33% 0.363 0.7411 0.293
2 Thematic 271 48.13% 36.32 72.32% -0.429 0.0889 -0.351
2 Top to Top 190 42.25% 46.63 87.89% 0.878 1.0172 0.884
3 Archipelago 27 40.74% 49.48 77.78% 0.02 -0.9572 -0.4
3 Coastline 175 28.57% 52.05 89.14% 0.36 -0.2891 0.66
3 Other 119 31.62% 36.16 93.28% 1.076 0.005 0.801
3 Round (Default) 2819 39.12% 42.73 79.57% -0.217 -0.0253 -0.125
3 Sunrise 21 61.9% 57.1 80.95% 0.0 0.3199 0.53
3 Thematic 94 51.06% 45.9 81.91% 0.846 0.6 0.554
4 Archipelago 25 28.0% 45.76 64.0% 0.038 -0.3639 -1.836
4 Coastline 141 11.35% 63.79 95.04% 0.003 0.2003 0.777
4 Leaf 12 50.0% 44.08 75.0% -0.679 -0.1878 -0.188
4 Other 191 25.13% 42.16 94.76% -0.379 -0.9201 1.751
4 Snake 2 100.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 359 41.34% 47.01 71.31% -0.533 -0.5269 -0.848
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1818 34.78% 44.1 81.13% -0.581 -0.7225 -0.641
5 Archipelago 7 42.86% 48.57 71.43% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.35
5 Coastline 58 8.62% 70.45 100.0% 0.339 0.0815 0.743
5 Other 129 31.01% 51.21 89.15% 0.257 0.0812 -0.178
5 Thematic 12 50.0% 62.5 100.0% 0.018 -0.017 0.95
6 Archipelago 13 15.38% 60.54 100.0% 0.0 -0.7508 0.328
6 Coastline 16 0.0% 69.88 100.0% 0.0 -0.7077 0.249
6 Other 73 15.28% 56.18 89.04% 0.428 1.1249 -0.233
6 Star 34 35.29% 43.82 70.59% -0.585 -0.0528 -1.748
6 Thematic 128 26.77% 41.37 82.81% -1.222 -0.7235 -1.517
6 Two Centers (Default) 150 26.17% 45.63 90.67% -0.802 -0.5762 -0.505
7 Archipelago 4 0.0% 56.5 75.0% 0.0 -0.7346 -0.625

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 534 36.95 60.67% -1.245 0.6642 -0.934
Aid From Lesser Spirits 561 39.94 65.24% -1.456 0.2288 -0.466
All Things Weaken 594 32.73 56.57% -1.339 0.6609 -0.813
Back Against the Wall 511 36.63 61.06% -1.245 0.703 -0.729
Disintegrating Ecosystem 573 32.94 55.15% -1.402 0.663 -1.325
Downward Spiral 630 31.83 59.05% -1.538 0.4249 -0.906
Erosion of Will 515 34.47 56.12% -1.422 0.6853 -0.935
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 259 42.04 83.01% -0.494 0.122 -0.474
Memory Fades to Dust 694 32.71 58.65% -1.052 1.0054 -0.747
Power Corrodes the Spirit 534 30.84 53.18% -1.733 0.2456 -1.337
Promising Farmlands 461 31.77 53.8% -0.809 1.293 -1.258
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 185 38.93 87.03% 0.4 0.7291 -0.275
Thriving Communities 603 30.67 52.07% -1.488 0.5616 -0.95
Unnatural Proliferation 591 33.72 55.67% -1.797 0.1468 -0.987
Untended Land Crumbles 562 31.52 54.09% -1.366 0.6602 -1.222

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5644 39.75% 41.9 81.09% 0.229 0.9879 0.159
B 5188 41.92% 39.48 78.3% 0.11 0.7861 0.136
C 6305 40.06% 42.21 80.68% 0.577 1.1025 0.454
D 4851 39.06% 40.97 80.71% -0.115 0.6119 0.173
E 4659 40.17% 41.52 80.98% 0.345 0.9053 0.345
F 4173 40.94% 39.93 79.85% 0.242 0.932 0.188
G 3744 39.46% 39.54 81.04% -0.133 0.5625 0.275
H 3866 38.96% 42.0 81.56% -0.125 0.5356 0.38
East 925 44.47% 42.26 72.22% 0.421 1.0999 0.092
Northeast 570 44.27% 43.11 72.98% -0.661 -0.0908 -0.253
Northwest 525 45.32% 42.4 71.24% -0.9 -0.0579 -0.956
Southeast 406 37.04% 42.6 74.63% 0.357 0.8837 -0.069
Southwest 368 38.63% 42.13 76.09% -0.554 0.3875 0.184
West 883 47.21% 41.43 70.22% -0.371 0.629 -0.591

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 255 0.0% 21.6 78.04% -0.968 1.151 0.233
Not Using Events or Tokens 364 53.31% 23.08 70.05% 0.197 0.4379 -0.716
Skip Initial Invader Actions 577 14.19% 43.1 92.72% 1.21 0.8406 0.64
Start of Game Growth 810 21.68% 45.55 88.89% 0.087 -0.536 -0.426
Unlimited Undo 1619 37.23% 39.14 84.31% 0.377 -0.2535 0.455
Using Tokens but Not Events 2069 24.38% 36.83 89.03% 0.055 0.0986 0.206

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1366 100.0% 40.96 100.0% 0.683 0.6355 -0.254
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 304 100.0% 33.67 100.0% -0.616 -0.552 -0.451
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 872 100.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.137 -0.1008 -0.106
Downpour Drenches the World 218 100.0% 58.22 100.0% -0.519 -0.1271 -0.069
Eyes Watch From the Trees 762 100.0% 39.12 100.0% -0.235 -0.6498 -0.139
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 647 100.0% 37.27 100.0% -0.378 -0.9731 -0.865
Finder of Paths Unseen 45 100.0% 44.96 100.0% -0.132 0.2722 0.019
Fractured Days Split the Sky 525 100.0% 45.46 100.0% -0.61 -0.5674 0.603
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 217 100.0% 42.22 100.0% -0.17 -0.1872 0.539
Heart of the Wildfire 400 100.0% 37.38 100.0% -0.474 -0.1451 -0.596
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2335 100.0% 49.2 100.0% -0.032 -0.6669 0.408
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1397 100.0% 44.64 100.0% 0.051 -0.1561 0.189
Many Minds Move as One 358 100.0% 38.13 100.0% -0.43 -0.9423 0.567
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2495 100.0% 52.98 100.0% 0.019 -0.2643 0.513
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 569 100.0% 35.8 100.0% 0.302 0.3349 0.017
River Surges in Sunlight 1874 152.06% 55.02 119.32% 0.593 0.5989 0.813
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1208 37.16% 36.4 79.39% -0.005 0.4398 -0.231
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 480 51.04% 54.58 76.46% 0.154 -0.0894 0.082
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 971 100.0% 46.42 100.0% 0.411 0.2672 0.149
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 96 574.55% 26.45 282.29% 0.307 0.8092 -0.714
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 9 11.11% 30.0 88.89% -0.2 -0.0617 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 32 50.0% 45.22 81.25% 1.508 1.4307 1.133
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 477 42.98% 34.13 76.73% 0.413 0.4106 0.06
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 375 37.5% 32.96 84.8% 0.685 0.7545 0.489
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 616 100.0% 43.81 100.0% 1.069 0.8069 0.301
Shifting Memory of Ages 344 100.0% 38.76 100.0% -0.412 -0.3899 0.06
Shroud of Silent Mist 287 100.0% 30.54 100.0% 0.464 0.7088 -0.792
Starlight Seeks its Form 533 100.0% 51.44 100.0% 1.07 0.8586 0.773
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 808 100.0% 32.68 100.0% -1.547 -1.7161 -0.574
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 561 100.0% 41.73 100.0% -0.287 -0.1767 0.303
Thunderspeaker 690 100.0% 41.17 100.0% -0.474 -0.5697 -0.197
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 391 100.0% 35.5 100.0% -0.565 -0.6621 0.05
Vital Strength of the Earth 387 177.08% 32.81 135.92% -0.119 0.7634 -0.07
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 66 43.94% 43.15 78.79% 0.405 0.8063 -0.623
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 476 42.27% 29.73 73.74% -0.575 0.4676 -0.955
Volcano Looming High 491 100.0% 42.22 100.0% -0.103 -0.1185 -0.08

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.75%
Lightning's Boon 95.41%
Raging Storm 88.05%
Shatter Homesteads 97.87%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2100 22.62 33.14%
II 9097 31.05 77.88%
III 5439 34.62 90.68%
IV 1276 37.86 99.69%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 696
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 4830
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6629
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1265
Lose: Invader deck ran out 82
Lose: Adversary condition 1104
Win: Sacrifice victory 35
Lose: Scenario condition 224
Win: Scenario condition 530
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2435
Lose: Spirit destroyed 82

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.946 Win Model: -0.136

Number of Players

Score Model: 1.154 Win Model: 0.447
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4642 54.86% 28.01 70.87%
2 6899 45.47% 39.11 79.62%
3 3271 38.92% 43.3 80.46%
4 2563 33.16% 45.73 81.74%
5 133 18.8% 57.72 94.74%
6 404 24.44% 46.45 86.39%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)