Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 30.77% 29.15 84.62% -0.002 0.4934 0.363
Blitz 0 187 44.62% 30.85 70.05% -0.895 -0.452 -0.691
Dahan Insurrection 4 505 15.67% 63.36 90.3% 0.124 0.221 0.681
Despicable Theft 2 51 45.1% 40.25 86.27% -0.701 -0.2026 0.97
Elemental Invocation 1 111 55.86% 31.39 73.87% -0.469 0.0766 -1.052
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1220 12.89% 51.57 83.36% 0.457 0.6886 0.231
Powers Long Forgotten 1 65 56.92% 31.49 58.46% -0.624 -0.2168 -0.062
Rituals of Terror 3 66 52.31% 37.98 71.21% -0.311 -0.5473 0.079
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 26 88.46% 38.31 61.54% 0.125 0.3509 0.072
Second Wave 0 604 44.95% 29.1 78.31% 0.004 0.6962 -0.572
The Great River 3 306 49.84% 33.2 65.36% -0.925 0.657 -0.752
Varied Terrains 2 34 44.12% 35.12 79.41% -0.095 0.6918 -0.584
Ward the Shores 2 118 47.86% 40.98 71.19% 0.217 1.0979 -0.312

Results using Layouts

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 546 37.24 60.44% -1.202 0.7687 -0.949
Aid From Lesser Spirits 575 40.07 65.04% -1.076 0.7015 -0.523
All Things Weaken 617 33.09 57.05% -1.208 0.8412 -0.802
Back Against the Wall 541 36.83 60.81% -1.265 0.6746 -0.78
Disintegrating Ecosystem 590 32.96 54.92% -1.688 0.4395 -1.362
Downward Spiral 655 32.22 59.08% -1.323 0.6378 -0.909
Erosion of Will 540 35.31 56.11% -1.118 0.9632 -0.975
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 270 42.43 82.59% -0.678 -0.1766 -0.502
Memory Fades to Dust 711 32.94 58.79% -1.171 0.9701 -0.692
Power Corrodes the Spirit 562 31.51 53.91% -0.874 1.1068 -1.336
Promising Farmlands 477 32.22 54.3% -0.292 1.7293 -1.178
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 197 38.72 86.8% 0.135 0.6314 -0.319
Thriving Communities 626 30.76 52.08% -1.272 0.7872 -0.996
Unnatural Proliferation 620 34.03 55.48% -1.507 0.4495 -1.036
Untended Land Crumbles 594 32.19 54.55% -1.357 0.6758 -1.163

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 5891 39.89% 42.24 81.21% 0.492 1.2282 0.19
B 5406 41.8% 39.75 78.38% 0.032 0.7291 0.115
C 6595 40.25% 42.43 80.74% 0.459 0.9285 0.436
D 5045 39.19% 41.13 80.61% -0.244 0.4659 0.148
E 4839 40.29% 41.71 80.93% 0.153 0.6973 0.326
F 4329 40.82% 40.11 79.93% -0.021 0.6404 0.18
G 3887 39.48% 39.59 80.94% 0.338 0.969 0.247
H 4020 38.96% 42.17 81.39% -0.035 0.6296 0.424
East 969 44.93% 42.24 71.83% -0.093 0.5687 -0.075
Northeast 604 44.93% 43.16 72.19% -0.68 -0.0203 -0.273
Northwest 550 45.44% 42.67 71.27% -0.947 -0.3365 -0.899
Southeast 428 37.47% 42.89 75.47% 0.229 0.7598 -0.095
Southwest 388 39.22% 42.51 76.8% 0.306 1.2745 0.283
West 919 47.43% 41.5 70.08% 0.038 0.8438 -0.458

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 270 0.0% 21.43 77.41% -1.226 1.0025 -0.294
Not Using Events or Tokens 373 52.65% 22.96 69.71% -0.287 -0.0605 -0.729
Skip Initial Invader Actions 590 14.05% 43.09 92.88% 1.258 0.2774 0.725
Start of Game Growth 826 21.54% 45.44 88.98% 0.698 0.241 -0.492
Unlimited Undo 1694 37.22% 39.16 83.94% -0.178 -0.7297 0.46
Using Tokens but Not Events 2166 24.51% 36.8 88.69% 0.086 0.2416 0.232

Results With Allies

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Harbingers of the Lightning 94.66%
Lightning's Boon 95.44%
Raging Storm 87.72%
Shatter Homesteads 97.73%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2193 22.65 32.69%
II 9448 31.08 78.0%
III 5645 34.66 90.74%
IV 1315 37.91 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 717
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5017
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6904
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1304
Lose: Invader deck ran out 85
Lose: Adversary condition 1158
Win: Sacrifice victory 37
Lose: Scenario condition 228
Win: Scenario condition 540
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2526
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Number of Players

Score Model: 1.08 Win Model: 0.428
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4775 54.85% 28.0 70.85%
2 7183 45.73% 39.29 79.54%
3 3390 38.85% 43.42 80.38%
4 2656 33.5% 45.99 81.59%
5 156 18.59% 57.73 93.59%
6 441 25.34% 46.76 87.3%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)