Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 156 43.59% 33.48 0.647 66.03% -0.403 -0.1202
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 137 53.28% 36.94 2.495 63.5% -0.203 0.2035
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 92 65.22% 38.57 3.507 50.0% -0.968 -0.0929
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 56.67% 38.33 3.738 46.67% -1.029 0.2186
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 25 88.0% 34.84 2.883 24.0% -1.116 0.3854
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.237 22.22% -1.293 0.6599
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 32 93.75% 32.19 1.84 9.38% -2.011 0.0316
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 493 44.4% 31.66 -0.216 74.04% 0.142 0.1835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 438 51.38% 33.24 0.963 68.26% -0.02 -0.0382
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 386 45.31% 45.42 6.388 80.05% 0.463 0.4741
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 162 63.35% 47.78 8.04 65.43% -0.098 0.1892
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 123 69.11% 49.32 8.898 62.6% -0.104 0.2633
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 48 77.08% 54.27 11.73 58.33% -0.151 0.6744
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 68 88.24% 45.13 6.96 36.76% -1.197 0.0408
The Kingdom of England 0 1 547 48.35% 28.0 -1.894 59.6% -0.67 -0.3377
The Kingdom of England 1 3 348 51.3% 36.18 2.187 61.21% -0.519 -0.0064
The Kingdom of England 2 4 330 52.74% 36.04 1.918 50.3% -1.151 -0.1845
The Kingdom of England 3 6 165 68.9% 38.55 3.625 41.82% -1.288 0.2909
The Kingdom of England 4 7 140 66.91% 40.18 4.77 38.57% -1.335 0.161
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 62.71% 46.43 7.199 36.67% -1.534 0.5378
The Kingdom of England 6 11 246 73.03% 46.82 8.239 33.74% -1.737 0.5114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 551 47.01% 27.8 -1.942 39.93% -1.762 -1.249
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 332 55.42% 27.46 -2.183 29.82% -2.223 -1.3219
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 460 41.09% 38.27 1.724 38.48% -2.572 -0.4307
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 191 59.16% 34.85 1.872 22.51% -2.684 -0.4878
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 206 57.28% 34.88 1.551 15.53% -3.01 -0.8514
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 223 57.85% 39.2 3.334 20.18% -2.978 -1.1641
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 328 52.29% 39.88 4.456 15.85% -3.25 -1.1532
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 460 44.35% 30.8 -0.547 74.78% 0.212 0.297
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 389 49.74% 33.82 1.126 70.69% 0.049 0.0821
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 418 55.02% 35.52 2.112 65.31% -0.164 0.0707
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 282 64.89% 41.86 5.378 63.83% -0.137 0.1494
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 106 81.13% 38.74 4.092 44.34% -0.638 0.1436
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 78 78.21% 42.23 4.944 43.59% -0.907 0.2591
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 152 84.11% 39.33 4.461 36.84% -1.158 -0.0334
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 109 43.52% 30.15 -0.926 71.56% 0.061 -0.0422
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 84 50.0% 37.06 2.263 70.24% -0.129 0.6486
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 74 56.76% 40.28 3.423 62.16% -0.505 -0.088
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 72.97% 37.59 3.595 43.24% -0.983 0.2748
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 84.62% 35.0 3.833 30.77% -0.856 0.2587
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.593 12.5% -1.38 0.6173
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 15 86.67% 42.87 6.726 20.0% -1.384 0.4958

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6218 51.46 31.01 -0.868 62.32% 0.787 0.9708
1 Thematic 1738 56.76 35.82 0.987 50.23% 0.47 0.8431
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 30.5 -1.832 50.0% 0.309 0.5241
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1350 49.78 33.58 0.336 63.04% 0.469 0.5294
2 Coastline 233 50.22 31.89 -0.431 65.24% 0.35 0.3655
2 Fragment 28 53.57 29.32 -2.218 53.57% -0.365 -0.0994
2 Heart 34 61.76 30.71 -1.838 35.29% -0.677 -0.5234
2 Opposite Shores 357 43.55 32.82 -0.027 70.03% 0.586 0.6845
2 Thematic 467 55.67 35.67 0.242 52.03% 0.092 0.0584
2 Top to Top 70 55.88 34.94 1.206 68.57% 0.849 0.8302
3 Archipelago 6 66.67 38.0 1.897 16.67% -0.406 0.6509
3 Coastline 8 14.29 32.38 -0.828 87.5% 0.256 0.0544
3 Other 25 40.0 29.32 -2.313 60.0% -0.587 -0.4005
3 Round (Default) 825 38.49 34.32 0.133 66.79% 0.014 -0.0548
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.127 60.0% -0.484 -0.7512
3 Thematic 115 53.04 37.93 -0.089 53.91% -0.218 -0.6164
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 61.0 10.5 100.0% 0.073 0.5135
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.418 100.0% 0.724 0.7771
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.922 100.0% 0.007 -0.0173
4 Other 30 46.67 32.43 -0.993 63.33% -0.738 -0.8385
4 Thematic 351 33.05 47.83 2.217 61.82% -0.72 -1.7989
4 Trapezoid (Default) 392 40.85 35.24 0.037 61.22% -0.913 -0.9954
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.082 100.0% 0.038 -0.5711
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 11.645 100.0% 0.106 -2.7738

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 605 28.29 -3.291 38.35% -2.114 -0.0409
Aid From Lesser Spirits 513 30.02 -2.521 41.33% -1.895 0.0246
All Things Weaken 175 24.93 -4.762 36.0% -2.191 -0.0207
Back Against the Wall 428 28.15 -3.271 37.85% -2.045 0.0467
Disintegrating Ecosystem 531 24.85 -5.058 32.02% -2.375 -0.1496
Downward Spiral 772 27.85 -3.384 44.17% -1.868 0.154
Erosion of Will 539 27.02 -3.949 35.81% -2.298 -0.0887
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 32.12 -1.041 64.41% -0.916 -0.2293
Memory Fades to Dust 783 26.41 -3.979 38.31% -2.113 0.1056
Power Corrodes the Spirit 168 25.58 -4.459 35.71% -2.076 -0.0532
Promising Farmlands 571 27.72 -3.617 41.33% -1.941 0.2727
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 38.0 1.153 64.71% -0.641 -0.2311
Thriving Communities 200 27.82 -3.427 35.5% -2.173 -0.0783
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.426 33.54% -2.262 -0.0357
Unnatural Proliferation 192 27.22 -3.525 35.94% -2.142 -0.0555
Untended Land Crumbles 192 23.97 -5.233 27.08% -2.555 -0.4481

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2590 47.09% 32.43 -0.254 63.13% -0.337 -1.1202
B 2553 47.27% 32.68 -0.219 63.57% -0.403 -1.2832
C 2633 46.3% 32.55 -0.114 64.76% -0.326 -1.4376
D 2857 49.47% 31.98 -0.388 64.12% -0.332 -1.205
E 690 46.35% 32.04 -0.672 55.51% -0.723 -1.7108
F 1162 46.52% 33.35 -0.037 63.94% -0.319 -1.2563
G 1099 47.04% 34.25 0.408 63.97% -0.282 -1.2098
H 1152 46.34% 33.72 0.159 63.54% -0.315 -1.2524
East 1034 45.11% 41.54 2.138 58.22% -0.217 -0.8896
Northeast 975 47.33% 39.85 1.083 52.31% -0.672 -1.2959
Northwest 940 50.85% 39.48 0.94 50.21% -0.509 -1.2018
Southeast 245 46.94% 39.75 1.782 66.12% -0.008 -0.7368
Southwest 203 54.95% 33.78 -1.554 59.11% -0.389 -0.6843
West 1006 50.65% 39.71 0.913 53.88% -0.503 -0.9245

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 148 0.0% 31.91 -3.607 89.19% -1.01 1.047
Not Using Events or Tokens 317 63.79% 27.98 -1.556 58.36% -0.236 -0.0204
Skip Initial Invader Actions 680 13.53% 47.0 4.367 88.97% -0.356 -1.0447
Start of Game Growth 967 10.86% 46.68 4.492 91.11% 1.993 1.5237
Unlimited Undo 913 36.09% 36.34 0.064 77.11% 0.284 -0.1363
Using Tokens but Not Events 1318 37.1% 33.35 -0.287 73.98% -0.031 -0.0826

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1382 22.35 0.0%
II 5787 30.84 68.86%
III 5100 34.35 67.9%
IV 0 37.52

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.311 Win Model: 0.74
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7974 52.69% 32.05 59.58%
2 2536 50.22% 33.67 61.95%
3 984 40.35% 34.58 65.35%
4 775 36.97% 41.18 62.32%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 431
Lose: Adversary condition 1829
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Win: Scenario condition 7420
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2484
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-03-30 02:56:02 (Pacific Time)