Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 289 38.75% 30.5 -1.936 59.52% -0.511 -0.1282
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 219 46.58% 30.51 -5.464 52.51% -1.045 -0.7186
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 138 62.32% 33.03 -2.697 42.03% -0.665 0.1172
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 83 62.65% 27.58 -7.27 24.1% -0.607 0.3355
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 78.0% 27.94 6.635 20.0% -0.08 1.3666
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 47.37% 21.63 -8.316 15.79% -0.151 1.2687
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 41 87.8% 29.88 0.0 7.32%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 569 40.92% 28.4 0.279 66.43% -0.128 0.0936
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 475 45.99% 31.31 -1.035 63.37% -0.378 -0.2715
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 409 46.93% 42.41 3.351 72.37% 0.076 0.1972
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 183 58.47% 45.04 6.613 63.39% 0.118 0.3212
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 131 54.96% 47.86 1.786 64.12% -0.013 0.2891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 66 72.73% 47.76 -11.86 48.48% -0.442 0.1151
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 87 80.46% 36.03 -5.607 26.44% -1.092 0.3696
The Kingdom of England 0 1 645 40.84% 26.0 -2.492 54.88% -0.492 -0.1629
The Kingdom of England 1 3 460 52.61% 31.6 -1.551 49.35% -0.615 -0.339
The Kingdom of England 2 4 380 53.42% 32.78 2.819 44.74% 0.107 0.841
The Kingdom of England 3 6 199 62.31% 32.41 -4.69 32.66% -1.034 0.1079
The Kingdom of England 4 7 154 65.36% 39.53 6.92 38.31% -0.031 1.204
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 63.93% 44.76 0.0 32.26%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 270 69.58% 43.46 -2.266 29.63% -0.475 1.5817
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 562 43.32% 25.76 -5.045 37.54% -2.227 -1.6741
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 397 46.85% 25.64 -3.011 29.22% -1.221 -0.5601
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 451 43.24% 35.25 -1.381 34.81% -0.57 0.4655
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 228 57.89% 32.26 -0.394 19.3% -0.515 0.8548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 198 57.07% 31.95 -0.58 14.14% -1.163 0.2828
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 214 50.93% 40.78 0.0 22.43%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 372 49.06% 34.87 -5.46 13.44% -1.404 0.0262
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 103 22.33% 18.85 -0.655 44.66% 0.008 0.2544
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 76 47.37% 15.04 -1.357 17.11% -0.784 -0.1606
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 54 42.59% 25.56 2.805 37.04% -0.076 0.4322
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 25 48.0% 30.12 -4.228 40.0% -0.679 -0.241
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 34 41.18% 30.47 5.266 32.35% 0.03 0.8262
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 79 62.03% 28.41 1.464 13.92% -0.078 0.4097
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 58 77.59% 33.62 17.175 20.69% 0.071 1.0416
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 548 37.29% 27.37 -1.344 66.97% -0.225 -0.0366
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 458 47.05% 30.0 -0.144 60.48% -0.114 -0.0921
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 465 54.19% 32.85 2.095 61.29% 0.077 0.2564
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 262 66.03% 39.05 -2.17 56.87% -0.698 -0.3732
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 107 75.7% 36.62 -4.057 42.06% -0.63 0.0713
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 79 64.56% 32.43 -6.393 32.91% -0.559 0.2596
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 213 75.94% 34.9 -1.853 31.92% -0.778 0.3028
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 281 32.86% 26.48 -0.351 64.41% -0.108 0.0358
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 194 45.88% 26.35 -4.245 46.91% -1.044 -0.2332
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 122 52.46% 37.11 8.769 60.66% 0.752 0.9908
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 66 63.64% 32.08 -8.38 36.36% -0.908 0.1915
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 33 63.64% 25.06 -10.908 24.24% -0.85 0.1318
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 83.33% 35.06 -12.278 22.22% -0.413 1.2098
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 40 85.0% 39.38 5.056 20.0% -0.873 0.832

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7776 48.01 28.65 56.91% 0.179 0.2584 0.183
1 Thematic 1878 54.43 32.12 45.05% -0.368 0.0867 0.243
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.116
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1570 46.09 31.26 58.79% 0.338 0.317 0.524
2 Coastline 299 44.56 30.27 61.54% 0.674 0.5772 0.748
2 Fragment 36 58.33 31.03 61.11% 0.651 0.2418 -0.092
2 Heart 39 56.41 29.49 41.03% -0.399
2 Opposite Shores 390 40.21 29.76 62.82% -0.564 -0.7252 0.516
2 Thematic 535 51.96 31.78 48.6% -0.058 0.1784 0.263
2 Top to Top 73 46.48 31.34 61.64% 0.149 -0.0064 -0.007
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% -0.367
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 41 20.0 16.12 34.15% -0.169
3 Round (Default) 1005 36.46 32.65 63.78% 0.354 0.0727 0.203
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.128
3 Thematic 106 46.23 34.42 52.83% -0.608 -0.9413 -0.364
4 Archipelago 5 0.0 54.6 100.0% 0.264 -0.182
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.457
4 Other 23 52.17 31.74 60.87% -0.042
4 Thematic 307 33.88 45.5 65.47% -0.006 0.4022 -0.618
4 Trapezoid (Default) 510 37.42 27.79 51.57% -1.323 -1.025 -0.325
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 15 30.77 25.87 60.0% -0.155 -0.76 0.126
5 Thematic 2 50.0 67.0 100.0% 0.216 0.5053
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 6 100.0 30.17 100.0%
6 Star 5 0.0 15.6 40.0%
6 Thematic 26 30.77 22.31 38.46% -0.025 -0.0341 -0.043
6 Two Centers (Default) 21 14.29 22.05 52.38% -0.332 -0.4215 -0.479
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.591

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 587 28.25 37.99% -0.488 -0.2931 -0.017
Aid From Lesser Spirits 491 28.62 38.9% -0.358 -0.3665 -0.225
All Things Weaken 300 23.75 33.33% -0.149 0.2039 -1.067
Attenuated Essence 34 23.56 38.24% -0.383 -0.2314 0.533
Back Against the Wall 451 28.48 39.91% 0.909 1.0019 0.284
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 16.88 37.5% 0.487 0.7051 -0.291
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 37.18 54.55% 0.734 0.9124 0.122
Disintegrating Ecosystem 562 23.37 28.29% -0.358 0.031 -0.811
Downward Spiral 737 27.3 43.15% 0.325 0.5181 0.108
Erosion of Will 561 25.8 35.47% 0.028 0.3294 -0.296
Intensifying Exploitation 34 19.44 23.53% 0.43 0.7159 -0.645
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 112 31.72 58.93% -0.503 -1.0642 0.345
Memory Fades to Dust 765 25.92 36.47% -0.256 0.0735 -0.562
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 24.6 35.43% 0.326 0.6355 -0.978
Promising Farmlands 573 26.76 38.57% -0.12 0.2414 -0.58
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 28.67 53.33% 0.253 0.3965 -0.091
Slow Dissolution of Will 39 20.46 33.33% -0.374 0.0778 0.062
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 67 33.06 61.19% 0.317 -0.2391 0.716
The Border of Life and Death 7 27.0 28.57% 1.065 0.7704 -0.353
Thriving Communities 334 25.84 32.93% -0.433 -0.1058 0.15
Thriving Crops 8 22.38 37.5% 0.407 0.3643
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.436
Unnatural Proliferation 332 26.1 32.53% -0.215 -0.028 -0.66
Untended Land Crumbles 326 24.26 30.37% 0.239 0.5687 -0.368

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2731 44.1% 29.66 57.23% -0.42 0.4743 -0.634
B 2731 43.21% 29.55 56.79% -0.421 0.4013 -0.818
C 2799 43.03% 30.16 60.2% -0.119 0.551 -0.523
D 2932 46.11% 29.73 59.92% -0.189 0.6398 -0.205
E 1408 40.83% 27.65 51.21% -0.359 0.3334 -0.584
F 1919 44.14% 29.96 59.87% -0.255 0.5237 -0.337
G 1889 44.07% 30.03 57.97% -0.405 0.3594 -0.643
H 1931 42.72% 29.9 57.74% -1.102 -0.3445 -0.604
East 1849 47.43% 34.91 50.73% -0.345 0.5017 -0.545
Northeast 1014 46.99% 35.55 49.31% -0.361 0.3147 -1.248
Northwest 890 50.56% 35.64 47.53% 0.073 0.8867 -0.693
Southeast 439 44.65% 32.73 53.76% -0.071 0.6147 0.117
Southwest 354 50.71% 27.91 48.59% -0.621 0.7556 -0.664
West 1669 51.89% 33.92 48.83% -0.077 0.8807 -0.541

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 163 0.0% 31.1 90.8% 0.265 1.1036 -0.08
Not Using Events or Tokens 277 52.71% 27.18 59.57% -0.716 -0.2664 0.396
Skip Initial Invader Actions 751 12.96% 46.08 87.62% 0.407 -0.1603 1.046
Start of Game Growth 1159 10.39% 43.53 89.3% 0.061 -0.459 1.228
Unlimited Undo 1347 29.04% 32.37 69.12% -0.475 -0.4371 0.84
Using Tokens but Not Events 1525 34.83% 31.12 69.05% -0.532 -0.565 0.515

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2526 16.17 0.0%
II 6461 30.54 67.78%
III 5745 34.77 67.21%
IV 0 38.39

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.505 Win Model: 0.425
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9756 49.25% 29.17 54.16%
2 2922 47.26% 31.43 58.08%
3 1132 34.69% 32.6 64.4%
4 842 35.99% 34.91 57.96%
5 20 35.29% 20.1 50.0%
6 60 26.42% 23.15 53.33%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1303
Lose: Invader deck ran out 487
Lose: Adversary condition 1919
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8211
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2703
Lose: Spirit destroyed 80

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-16 05:27:44 (Pacific Time)