Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 235 42.55% 33.34 6.644 64.26% 0.808 1.0713
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 184 49.46% 34.45 0.86 58.7% 0.116 0.4619
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 117 64.96% 36.68 -5.937 47.01% -1.314 -0.4842
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 71 67.61% 29.97 -4.614 25.35% -0.707 0.2848
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 34 88.24% 33.74 -9.62 23.53% -0.608 0.7115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 14 64.29% 29.36 -7.82 21.43% -0.762 0.9007
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 36 91.67% 32.25 3.933 8.33% -0.295 1.7181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 502 42.2% 30.06 -1.211 70.32% -0.108 -0.0229
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 403 48.01% 33.71 1.573 68.73% 0.16 0.0652
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 371 47.15% 43.78 2.289 74.66% 0.019 0.008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 161 60.25% 48.2 8.689 68.32% 0.037 0.2338
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 112 58.93% 49.4 4.892 65.18% -0.348 -0.145
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 60 75.0% 48.55 -1.551 48.33% -0.323 0.2379
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 69 88.41% 42.59 -3.077 33.33% -0.569 0.7692
The Kingdom of England 0 1 557 42.27% 27.96 0.747 59.07% 0.381 0.647
The Kingdom of England 1 3 403 55.83% 33.7 -4.36 52.61% -0.204 -0.0202
The Kingdom of England 2 4 349 54.73% 34.68 2.448 47.85% -0.445 0.2916
The Kingdom of England 3 6 161 66.46% 36.91 -0.998 38.51% -0.321 0.818
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 67.88% 41.94 0.0 41.3%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 57 62.5% 47.33 0.0 35.09%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 247 71.9% 45.04 1.041 30.36% -0.813 1.229
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 501 44.91% 27.5 -2.659 40.52% -1.137 -0.7347
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 351 49.29% 27.69 -3.918 31.91% -1.713 -0.7577
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 418 44.74% 36.61 4.926 36.12% -0.567 0.506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 212 58.49% 33.52 -3.143 19.81% -1.512 -0.2243
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 176 59.66% 34.59 -3.498 15.34% -0.547 0.8547
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 209 51.67% 41.57 8.757 22.97% 0.0 0.9291
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 285 51.41% 40.47 5.496 17.19% -1.068 0.2757
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 40 35.0% 25.3 -7.008 60.0% -0.792 -0.7757
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 41 60.98% 20.32 -3.942 24.39% -1.123 -0.6929
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 20 45.0% 34.45 5.16 50.0% 0.132 0.5733
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 15 60.0% 43.47 13.674 60.0% 0.913 1.2988
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 14 28.57% 30.79 3.762 28.57% 0.066 0.6851
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 11 54.55% 45.91 -7.026 54.55% -0.503 0.2803
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 38 84.21% 36.61 2.015 18.42% -1.172 0.1036
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 468 41.45% 29.71 -2.281 72.44% -0.363 -0.1826
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 407 50.25% 31.74 0.38 63.64% -0.029 -0.003
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 414 56.04% 34.71 2.07 64.25% 0.404 0.6275
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 241 65.56% 40.54 3.503 59.34% 0.119 0.5462
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 99 76.77% 38.32 -1.18 43.43% -0.503 0.1051
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 62 75.81% 39.81 -6.753 40.32% -0.33 0.6799
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 177 81.25% 38.08 1.715 34.46% -0.694 0.1928
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 215 36.92% 30.17 -0.013 74.88% 0.343 0.4638
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 135 49.63% 33.58 -3.143 61.48% -0.553 0.0873
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 103 57.28% 39.5 3.52 63.11% 0.148 0.5739
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 51 68.63% 37.94 -5.0 45.1% -0.604 0.5102
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 19 78.95% 36.26 9.34 36.84% -0.122 0.7828
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 12 91.67% 35.08 4.294 16.67% -0.141 1.3545
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 26 84.62% 42.65 4.431 19.23% -0.501 1.3398

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6610 49.62 30.58 60.67% 0.352 0.4058 0.019
1 Thematic 1686 56.61 34.31 47.86% -0.546 -0.0678 0.176
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.274 -0.1703 -0.16
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1351 48.29 33.43 62.47% 0.709 0.7909 0.366
2 Coastline 263 43.85 32.19 65.02% 0.613 0.4586 0.701
2 Fragment 25 56.0 32.08 60.0% -0.239
2 Heart 38 57.89 30.26 42.11% -0.33 -0.6168 -0.524
2 Opposite Shores 321 43.63 32.71 68.54% 0.252 0.2749 0.321
2 Thematic 459 55.34 34.25 51.63% -0.139 0.2643 0.366
2 Top to Top 62 50.0 35.24 67.74% -0.341 -0.5075 0.219
3 Archipelago 8 62.5 36.0 25.0% -0.428
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 40 20.51 16.52 35.0% -1.445 -0.9045 -0.183
3 Round (Default) 896 36.88 33.81 66.41% -0.202 -0.3173 -0.173
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.206
3 Thematic 95 48.42 35.43 54.74% 0.008 0.0883 -0.26
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 52.5 100.0%
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.378
4 Other 22 50.0 31.95 59.09% 0.246 -0.8375 -0.188
4 Thematic 284 34.15 46.82 66.9% 0.593 0.3308 -0.52
4 Trapezoid (Default) 386 44.12 33.39 62.18% 0.493 0.4101 0.118
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 7 50.0 33.43 57.14% -0.501 -0.7863 0.172
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 5 100.0 30.8 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 14 42.86 32.57 50.0% -0.382 0.0387 -0.007
6 Two Centers (Default) 15 13.33 30.87 73.33% 0.063 0.1675 -0.427

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 532 29.09 39.29% -0.131 0.1113 -0.138
Aid From Lesser Spirits 456 28.99 39.91% 0.091 0.0134 -0.334
All Things Weaken 265 24.86 33.96% -0.946 -0.5538 -1.129
Attenuated Essence 16 26.13 43.75% -0.152 -0.045 0.775
Back Against the Wall 417 28.49 39.57% 0.383 0.4406 -0.063
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 12.2 40.0% -0.255 -0.0533
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 26.0 25.0% -0.008 0.2025 -0.472
Disintegrating Ecosystem 500 24.0 28.8% 0.62 1.0438 -1.201
Downward Spiral 680 27.67 43.38% -0.075 0.1603 -0.082
Erosion of Will 515 26.02 35.34% 0.273 0.5822 -0.576
Intensifying Exploitation 6 21.67 16.67% -0.633 -0.3456 -0.267
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 94 33.55 62.77% 1.175 0.6811 0.177
Memory Fades to Dust 696 26.79 37.64% -0.395 -0.0591 -0.65
Power Corrodes the Spirit 270 24.67 35.19% 0.048 0.2685 -1.179
Promising Farmlands 527 27.2 38.71% 0.5 0.9534 -0.986
Shattered Fragments of Power 7 24.0 57.14% -0.035 0.016
Slow Dissolution of Will 10 26.3 40.0% 0.63 1.0294 0.345
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 52 37.77 65.38% 0.121 -0.5898 0.541
Thriving Communities 291 26.72 34.36% -0.454 -0.0909 0.047
Thriving Crops 4 20.5 25.0% -0.406 -0.6036
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.605
Unnatural Proliferation 298 26.41 33.56% -0.507 -0.2919 -0.588
Untended Land Crumbles 287 24.3 29.62% 0.07 0.3513 -0.705

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2290 46.15% 31.77 61.22% -0.176 0.5643 -0.455
B 2276 44.78% 31.82 62.35% -0.503 0.2231 -0.371
C 2416 44.27% 31.94 63.62% -0.535 0.0473 -0.323
D 2530 47.95% 31.78 63.48% -0.648 0.0635 0.114
E 1117 44.41% 31.35 57.56% -0.246 0.3198 -0.442
F 1634 46.31% 32.56 64.57% 0.022 0.6925 0.037
G 1604 46.55% 32.74 62.34% -0.053 0.5986 -0.25
H 1657 45.29% 32.48 62.4% -0.188 0.3823 -0.319
East 1631 49.05% 37.36 53.89% 0.309 0.848 -0.458
Northeast 908 48.84% 37.69 51.98% -0.078 0.5563 -1.059
Northwest 812 52.84% 37.26 49.01% -0.214 0.5953 -0.461
Southeast 353 46.74% 37.35 61.47% -0.292 0.4136 0.443
Southwest 278 55.96% 32.38 56.12% 0.528 1.5177 0.011
West 1487 54.42% 36.0 51.11% -0.97 -0.0667 -0.511

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 154 0.0% 31.79 94.16% -0.154 0.6223 0.13
Not Using Events or Tokens 239 54.95% 28.71 62.34% -1.07 -0.6906 0.337
Skip Initial Invader Actions 710 11.75% 46.59 89.15% 0.496 -0.1217 0.994
Start of Game Growth 1102 9.27% 44.2 91.29% 1.179 0.8301 1.112
Unlimited Undo 1172 30.37% 35.18 75.43% -0.774 -0.7807 0.957
Using Tokens but Not Events 1375 35.62% 32.79 72.65% 0.504 0.4933 0.528

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1601 20.4 0.0%
II 5822 31.01 68.57%
III 5213 34.76 67.89%
IV 0 38.07

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.088 Win Model: 0.331
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8351 51.13% 31.28 57.79%
2 2538 49.29% 33.33 60.91%
3 1006 34.97% 33.83 67.3%
4 694 39.65% 39.26 64.84%
5 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0%
6 41 31.43% 31.49 70.73%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 308
Lose: Invader deck ran out 449
Lose: Adversary condition 1788
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Win: Scenario condition 7507
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2488
Lose: Spirit destroyed 72

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)