Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 219 43.38% 33.53 -0.999 63.93% -0.887 -0.4155
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 166 51.2% 36.1 -1.721 61.45% -0.849 -0.5037
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 108 66.67% 39.03 7.748 50.93% 0.126 1.3097
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 55 67.27% 34.22 -1.088 30.91% -0.829 0.6257
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 90.63% 35.84 -1.569 25.0% -0.85 0.6853
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 10 80.0% 41.1 20.175 30.0% 0.204 2.1524
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 91.43% 32.31 0.0 8.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 461 43.48% 31.02 -1.974 72.45% -0.417 -0.4749
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 381 49.21% 34.44 4.091 70.34% 0.452 0.219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 346 46.22% 44.95 5.843 78.03% 0.091 0.2793
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 151 62.25% 49.27 0.0 70.2%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 101 62.38% 51.39 17.146 67.33% 0.136 0.5113
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 58 75.86% 49.83 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 59 89.83% 43.15 -2.026 33.9% -0.581 0.9017
The Kingdom of England 0 1 522 44.34% 28.41 -1.149 59.77% -0.024 0.5062
The Kingdom of England 1 3 394 56.35% 33.97 3.039 52.79% -0.24 0.3987
The Kingdom of England 2 4 329 54.71% 35.1 -1.104 48.94% -0.518 0.6194
The Kingdom of England 3 6 155 67.1% 37.54 -3.384 39.35% -0.189 1.482
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 67.88% 41.94 4.226 41.3% -1.021 0.4529
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 61.82% 46.89 0.0 33.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 237 71.55% 45.68 0.0 31.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 477 45.7% 28.09 -1.681 41.51% -0.785 -0.1392
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 320 50.63% 28.7 -1.934 33.75% -1.044 0.0837
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 409 44.99% 36.86 -0.283 36.67% -1.155 0.9182
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 204 60.29% 34.26 0.43 20.59% -1.612 0.4836
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 173 60.12% 34.64 1.417 15.03% -0.795 1.533
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 206 51.46% 41.68 13.864 22.82% -0.01 2.0294
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 265 51.89% 40.96 4.197 17.36% -1.064 1.111
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 25 40.0% 34.68 -0.232 84.0% 0.074 -0.1114
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 18 66.67% 29.11 -2.959 38.89% -1.372 -0.506
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 46.15% 36.62 3.45 53.85% -0.079 1.1358
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 10 60.0% 42.1 6.878 50.0% -0.122 0.7293
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 40.0% 40.4 0.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 71.43% 63.86 11.797 71.43% -0.165 1.1077
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 84.62% 50.54 10.521 38.46% -0.15 1.4475
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 440 43.18% 30.62 -0.026 74.55% 0.01 0.2041
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 385 51.56% 32.55 -0.185 65.19% -0.728 -0.5441
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 395 55.95% 35.35 1.463 65.06% -0.016 0.2336
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 236 66.1% 40.64 5.076 59.32% 0.002 0.4722
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 94 76.6% 39.31 0.0 45.74%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 78.33% 41.13 0.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 148 84.35% 40.38 9.126 37.84% 0.083 1.2477
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 192 37.7% 31.63 1.144 78.65% 0.732 0.245
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 126 51.59% 35.33 2.1 64.29% 0.062 0.838
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 94 58.51% 40.89 -5.375 64.89% -0.285 0.0748
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 47 68.09% 40.34 9.539 48.94% 0.235 1.4839
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 37.25 11.489 37.5% 0.256 1.3715
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 35.91 6.11 18.18% -0.071 2.0299
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 24 83.33% 43.67 7.237 20.83% -0.574 1.4172

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6153 50.34 31.23 62.08% -0.084 0.5275 0.063
1 Thematic 1608 58.3 35.34 49.19% -0.344 0.681 0.267
2 Archipelago 6 83.33 33.33 50.0% 0.079 0.823 -0.158
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1247 48.63 34.33 64.23% 0.221 0.6963 0.418
2 Coastline 237 45.3 32.76 67.09% -0.129 0.0187 0.647
2 Fragment 25 56.0 32.08 60.0% -0.239
2 Heart 34 55.88 30.71 41.18% -0.206 0.2533 -0.776
2 Opposite Shores 309 44.04 33.07 68.93% 0.796 1.2806 0.228
2 Thematic 426 57.28 35.45 52.82% 0.16 0.8951 0.36
2 Top to Top 58 50.0 35.33 68.97% -0.186 -0.1457 0.181
3 Archipelago 8 62.5 36.0 25.0% -0.392 -0.587 -0.499
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73% -0.573 -1.2305
3 Other 23 31.82 28.74 60.87% -0.2
3 Round (Default) 853 37.1 34.55 67.53% 0.245 0.4864 -0.385
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.235
3 Thematic 87 49.43 37.41 57.47% 0.143 0.4134 -0.161
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 52.5 100.0% 0.157 0.1116
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.336
4 Other 20 45.0 32.05 65.0% 0.079
4 Thematic 278 33.45 46.97 66.91% -0.467 -0.4497 -0.779
4 Trapezoid (Default) 359 43.23 34.74 63.79% 0.078 0.1075 -0.107
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0% 0.046 -0.5504
5 Other 5 75.0 46.8 80.0% 0.215
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0% -0.371 -0.2879
6 Coastline 3 0.0 30.0 100.0% 0.374 -0.2217
6 Other 5 100.0 30.8 100.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 39.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 7 28.57 41.14 57.14% 0.14 0.3357 0.209
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 25.0 42.75 87.5% -0.23 -0.0572

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 509 29.35 39.29% -0.613 1.3621 -0.244
Aid From Lesser Spirits 441 29.25 40.59% -1.182 0.5833 -0.378
All Things Weaken 248 24.58 34.27% -1.69 0.3689 -1.288
Back Against the Wall 398 28.6 39.2% -0.563 1.3755 -0.092
Disintegrating Ecosystem 484 24.0 28.93% -2.028 0.0892 -1.241
Downward Spiral 650 27.84 43.69% -1.027 0.918 -0.135
Erosion of Will 491 26.36 35.85% -0.489 1.5775 -0.618
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 88 33.44 63.64% 0.432 0.9519 0.269
Memory Fades to Dust 668 26.94 37.57% -1.273 0.8369 -0.773
Power Corrodes the Spirit 251 24.96 35.46% -0.504 1.465 -1.198
Promising Farmlands 509 27.11 38.7% -0.707 1.2951 -1.194
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 38.62 65.96% 0.036 0.5291 0.465
Thriving Communities 277 26.92 35.02% -1.539 0.5266 -0.008
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.69
Unnatural Proliferation 283 26.88 34.63% -0.586 1.3573 -0.625
Untended Land Crumbles 271 24.13 29.15% -0.985 1.0328 -0.771

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2142 47.23% 32.57 62.65% -0.495 0.2181 -0.343
B 2109 45.62% 33.0 64.44% 1.225 1.9019 -0.243
C 2237 44.8% 33.1 65.71% -0.892 -0.4343 -0.201
D 2368 48.17% 32.67 65.24% -0.231 0.4621 0.251
E 994 45.45% 32.74 59.86% -0.03 0.4847 -0.38
F 1531 46.75% 32.96 65.58% -0.124 0.5292 0.102
G 1495 46.77% 33.51 63.75% -0.517 0.0869 -0.079
H 1530 45.7% 33.22 63.59% -0.219 0.4273 -0.295
East 1534 50.07% 38.51 55.35% 0.135 0.7972 -0.373
Northeast 855 49.77% 38.74 53.1% -0.075 0.5713 -0.922
Northwest 780 53.86% 38.05 49.49% -0.577 -0.0565 -0.398
Southeast 317 47.63% 39.57 65.3% 0.21 0.7221 0.781
Southwest 251 56.4% 33.75 58.17% 0.219 1.1543 0.168
West 1418 55.59% 36.99 52.05% -0.534 0.2372 -0.401

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 152 0.0% 31.99 94.74% 0.066 2.2812 0.12
Not Using Events or Tokens 226 57.14% 29.76 65.04% 0.145 0.3844 0.38
Skip Initial Invader Actions 681 12.16% 47.27 90.31% 0.026 -0.9638 0.876
Start of Game Growth 1060 9.46% 44.89 92.64% -0.091 -0.5648 1.052
Unlimited Undo 1087 31.46% 36.27 78.56% 0.554 0.0247 0.965
Using Tokens but Not Events 1273 35.8% 33.66 74.63% -0.043 0.1079 0.709

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1273 22.66 0.0%
II 5530 31.08 68.84%
III 4990 34.67 68.0%
IV 0 37.92

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.065 Win Model: 0.256
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7795 52.13% 32.06 59.23%
2 2370 49.96% 34.02 61.98%
3 939 35.55% 35.19 69.76%
4 660 38.49% 40.27 66.06%
5 4 100.0% 35.0 75.0%
6 25 35.0% 37.2 80.0%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 430
Lose: Adversary condition 1712
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Win: Scenario condition 7177
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2380
Lose: Spirit destroyed 71

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-21 02:48:00 (Pacific Time)