Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 268 40.67% 31.69 4.544 61.57% 0.747 1.0941
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 205 48.29% 32.09 -1.683 55.12% -0.349 -0.0713
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 129 63.57% 34.63 -1.504 44.19% -0.927 -0.1155
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 79 64.56% 28.28 -2.664 24.05% -0.649 0.3491
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 40 85.0% 31.45 -7.306 22.5% -0.488 0.8945
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 17 52.94% 24.18 -7.131 17.65% -0.265 1.032
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 39 92.31% 31.41 -2.542 7.69% -0.462 1.4688
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 533 41.43% 29.33 -1.719 68.86% -0.224 -0.0079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 432 46.4% 33.06 7.258 67.36% 0.821 0.751
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 386 47.4% 43.48 7.144 74.35% 0.333 0.2498
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 173 60.12% 45.93 1.167 64.74% -0.207 0.0089
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 125 56.0% 49.03 13.399 65.6% 0.53 0.7546
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 63 73.02% 47.76 8.445 47.62% 0.109 0.7817
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 80 86.25% 38.85 -7.938 28.75% -0.831 0.5264
The Kingdom of England 0 1 610 41.71% 26.69 -0.337 56.23% -0.624 -0.4147
The Kingdom of England 1 3 437 53.32% 32.51 0.163 51.03% -0.357 -0.0693
The Kingdom of England 2 4 367 54.5% 33.46 -3.027 45.78% -1.403 -0.6698
The Kingdom of England 3 6 185 64.86% 34.12 -1.012 34.59% -1.22 -0.0015
The Kingdom of England 4 7 147 67.12% 40.43 -1.77 38.78% -0.941 0.3399
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 63.16% 46.98 0.0 34.48%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 263 70.43% 44.29 9.23 30.04% -0.361 1.6339
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 533 44.09% 26.54 -4.232 39.4% -1.139 -0.725
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 374 47.86% 26.75 -2.836 30.75% -1.008 -0.2012
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 440 43.18% 35.92 7.219 35.68% -0.452 0.6512
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 220 59.09% 33.01 -5.158 19.55% -1.603 -0.2056
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 183 59.02% 33.69 -1.933 15.3% -0.511 1.0025
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 214 50.93% 40.78 -3.023 22.43% -0.575 0.2097
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 349 51.44% 36.89 0.821 14.33% -1.486 -0.0095
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 72 25.0% 19.53 -1.745 45.83% -0.052 0.1599
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 59 50.85% 14.37 -7.25 16.95% -1.525 -1.1398
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 35 42.86% 27.51 4.759 37.14% 0.286 0.664
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 21 52.38% 34.57 -0.355 47.62% -0.149 0.1234
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 24 45.83% 32.08 7.076 29.17% -0.15 0.7108
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 68 67.65% 29.71 2.941 13.24% -0.714 -0.0187
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54 75.93% 31.22 -2.541 16.67% -0.544 0.5965
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 505 39.41% 28.62 -0.252 69.7% 0.081 0.2767
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 440 47.84% 30.62 2.665 61.82% 0.744 0.8396
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 443 54.4% 33.41 0.31 62.3% 0.008 0.1167
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 249 65.46% 40.37 8.955 59.44% 0.718 1.1857
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 101 76.24% 38.21 5.774 43.56% 0.007 0.6267
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 73 69.86% 35.1 -5.344 35.62% -0.748 0.2384
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 201 77.0% 35.89 1.426 32.34% -1.194 -0.1966
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 242 34.85% 28.3 -0.729 69.42% -0.26 -0.169
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 172 47.67% 28.94 -1.666 51.74% -0.412 0.248
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 108 56.48% 38.8 -3.561 62.04% -0.415 -0.0209
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 60 70.0% 35.28 -3.366 40.0% -1.294 -0.262
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 29 72.41% 28.52 4.967 27.59% -0.491 0.4677
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 17 88.24% 37.12 4.641 23.53% -0.217 1.5001
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 84.85% 35.91 -3.806 15.15% -0.525 1.4565

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7276 48.79 29.58 58.55% 0.712 0.9127 0.167
1 Thematic 1798 55.41 33.04 46.22% -0.036 0.6836 0.307
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.115
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1473 47.2 32.14 60.22% -0.219 -0.2109 0.447
2 Coastline 284 43.37 30.63 62.32% -0.578 -0.7831 0.748
2 Fragment 34 58.82 32.0 61.76% 0.759 0.4818 -0.155
2 Heart 39 56.41 29.49 41.03% -0.093 -0.3129 -0.432
2 Opposite Shores 371 40.38 30.47 64.96% -0.173 -0.1158 0.571
2 Thematic 500 53.8 32.83 49.8% 1.015 1.4672 0.285
2 Top to Top 70 48.53 31.84 61.43% -0.596 -0.6938 -0.1
3 Archipelago 8 62.5 36.0 25.0% -0.422
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 41 20.0 16.12 34.15% -0.118 -0.1466 -0.186
3 Round (Default) 954 36.11 32.49 64.26% -0.396 -0.6221 0.024
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.163
3 Thematic 102 48.04 34.93 53.92% 0.171 0.3675 -0.369
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 52.5 100.0%
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.429
4 Other 23 52.17 31.74 60.87% 0.41 -0.9476 -0.085
4 Thematic 291 34.36 46.29 66.32% -0.372 -0.5707 -0.594
4 Trapezoid (Default) 471 38.78 29.47 54.99% -0.715 -0.9589 0.03
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 12 30.0 32.33 75.0% 1.199 0.1424 0.241
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 6 100.0 30.17 100.0%
6 Star 5 0.0 15.6 40.0% -0.087 -0.1433
6 Thematic 21 38.1 24.24 38.1% -0.434 0.3204 -0.083
6 Two Centers (Default) 17 11.76 27.24 64.71% -0.414 -0.9932 -0.406
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.259 -0.6707 -0.602

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 570 28.58 38.42% 0.179 0.3388 -0.098
Aid From Lesser Spirits 477 28.77 39.2% 0.09 0.0041 -0.305
All Things Weaken 284 24.27 33.8% -0.076 0.2658 -1.064
Attenuated Essence 32 24.44 40.63% -0.292 -0.218 0.45
Back Against the Wall 437 28.53 39.36% 0.729 0.8046 0.201
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 14.33 33.33% 0.024 0.2147 -0.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 32.71 42.86% 0.255 0.3791 -0.488
Disintegrating Ecosystem 540 23.72 28.7% -0.482 -0.1092 -0.961
Downward Spiral 707 27.38 43.42% -0.706 -0.569 -0.004
Erosion of Will 539 25.58 35.06% 0.368 0.6625 -0.474
Intensifying Exploitation 21 17.29 9.52% -1.219 -0.9801 -0.944
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 104 32.65 62.5% 0.219 -0.3128 0.311
Memory Fades to Dust 736 26.3 36.82% -0.826 -0.545 -0.622
Power Corrodes the Spirit 289 24.83 35.29% 0.348 0.5014 -1.048
Promising Farmlands 560 26.98 38.75% 0.073 0.4196 -0.653
Shattered Fragments of Power 12 26.08 50.0% 0.516 0.7106 -0.11
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 23.61 35.71% 0.419 0.8697 0.01
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 64 33.16 60.94% -0.455 -1.1955 0.642
The Border of Life and Death 4 24.5 0.0% -0.541 -0.9741 -0.402
Thriving Communities 310 26.52 33.87% -0.627 -0.3284 0.098
Thriving Crops 6 25.5 33.33% 0.101 -0.0009
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.515
Unnatural Proliferation 315 26.07 32.38% -0.179 -0.0337 -0.435
Untended Land Crumbles 307 24.63 29.97% 0.289 0.5883 -0.425

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2569 44.42% 30.21 58.35% -0.117 0.8776 -0.608
B 2567 43.69% 30.2 58.28% -0.623 0.2949 -0.738
C 2642 43.07% 30.71 61.54% 0.22 0.9629 -0.443
D 2765 46.54% 30.51 61.37% -0.22 0.7315 -0.126
E 1300 42.09% 28.56 52.62% -0.806 -0.0254 -0.67
F 1784 45.03% 31.01 62.11% -0.169 0.7235 -0.232
G 1765 45.43% 31.11 59.77% -0.415 0.4403 -0.498
H 1810 43.89% 31.1 60.28% -0.061 0.7867 -0.5
East 1755 48.37% 35.78 51.79% -0.704 0.0653 -0.542
Northeast 964 47.66% 36.41 50.52% -0.439 0.3484 -1.248
Northwest 855 51.58% 36.28 48.07% -0.15 0.8336 -0.675
Southeast 403 46.9% 33.91 55.33% -0.619 0.2555 0.151
Southwest 317 54.43% 29.59 50.79% -0.873 0.3343 -0.535
West 1584 53.29% 34.85 49.75% 0.638 1.5722 -0.537

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 158 0.0% 31.37 92.41% -0.786 -0.1567 -0.269
Not Using Events or Tokens 261 53.31% 28.18 61.69% 0.564 1.0699 0.357
Skip Initial Invader Actions 727 11.63% 46.19 88.45% 0.179 -0.4561 1.136
Start of Game Growth 1127 9.37% 43.79 90.33% 0.066 -0.3233 1.234
Unlimited Undo 1287 28.88% 33.02 70.94% -0.646 -0.6013 0.754
Using Tokens but Not Events 1443 35.12% 32.12 71.31% 0.603 0.5758 0.467

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2130 17.67 0.0%
II 6205 30.7 67.9%
III 5516 34.75 67.73%
IV 0 38.22

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.159 Win Model: 0.465
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9155 50.18% 30.14 55.74%
2 2771 47.87% 32.05 59.04%
3 1073 34.46% 32.55 65.05%
4 785 37.05% 36.23 60.25%
5 14 27.27% 24.79 64.29%
6 53 30.43% 24.87 56.6%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 873
Lose: Invader deck ran out 465
Lose: Adversary condition 1871
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Win: Scenario condition 7921
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2616
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)