Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 166 43.98% 33.24 0.527 63.86% -0.545 -0.2554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 140 54.29% 36.47 2.275 62.14% -0.285 0.1287
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 94 65.96% 38.5 3.459 50.0% -0.961 -0.0776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 32 59.38% 37.34 3.25 43.75% -1.142 0.1003
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 26 88.46% 34.38 2.666 23.08% -1.201 0.2953
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.24 22.22% -1.311 0.6282
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 32 93.75% 32.19 1.805 9.38% -2.031 0.0121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 500 43.98% 31.68 -0.21 74.2% 0.119 0.1607
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 441 51.25% 33.3 0.977 68.25% -0.04 -0.0586
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 392 45.64% 45.35 6.35 79.85% 0.439 0.4521
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 165 63.41% 47.76 8.047 65.45% -0.115 0.1681
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 124 69.35% 49.1 8.803 62.1% -0.142 0.2178
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 48 77.08% 54.27 11.739 58.33% -0.166 0.6592
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 72 88.89% 44.76 6.84 36.11% -1.225 0.0141
The Kingdom of England 0 1 550 48.09% 28.04 -1.88 59.64% -0.69 -0.36
The Kingdom of England 1 3 358 50.99% 36.13 2.181 61.45% -0.534 -0.017
The Kingdom of England 2 4 333 52.27% 36.05 1.918 50.45% -1.178 -0.2044
The Kingdom of England 3 6 175 68.97% 37.96 3.379 40.57% -1.356 0.2238
The Kingdom of England 4 7 142 65.96% 40.54 4.889 39.44% -1.346 0.149
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 62.71% 46.43 7.206 36.67% -1.55 0.5204
The Kingdom of England 6 11 249 72.95% 46.98 8.29 34.14% -1.736 0.5074
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 556 47.3% 27.8 -1.941 40.11% -1.766 -1.254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 340 55.59% 27.44 -2.232 29.71% -2.253 -1.3509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 466 40.77% 38.34 1.752 38.63% -2.583 -0.4423
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 192 58.85% 34.83 1.855 22.4% -2.715 -0.5169
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 206 57.28% 34.88 1.55 15.53% -3.03 -0.8694
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 230 57.83% 39.38 3.392 20.43% -2.982 -1.1642
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 328 52.29% 39.88 4.446 15.85% -3.273 -1.1814
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 472 44.7% 30.68 -0.588 74.58% 0.196 0.285
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 393 50.0% 33.7 1.078 70.23% 0.013 0.0477
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 426 54.93% 35.57 2.129 65.49% -0.175 0.0626
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 282 64.89% 41.86 5.376 63.83% -0.156 0.134
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 108 81.48% 38.43 3.955 43.52% -0.695 0.0864
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 78 78.21% 42.23 4.945 43.59% -0.926 0.2424
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 152 84.11% 39.33 4.457 36.84% -1.183 -0.0601
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 112 44.14% 29.96 -1.01 71.43% 0.048 -0.0412
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 84 50.0% 37.06 2.254 70.24% -0.162 0.6174
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 77 54.55% 40.94 3.557 63.64% -0.509 -0.097
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 72.97% 37.59 3.592 43.24% -1.011 0.233
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 84.62% 35.0 3.854 30.77% -0.829 0.2788
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.619 12.5% -1.384 0.6004
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 81.25% 45.69 8.012 25.0% -1.339 0.5329

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6325 51.48 30.99 -0.866 62.36% 0.947 1.0331
1 Thematic 1758 56.96 35.71 0.958 50.0% 0.649 0.9259
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 31.0 -0.737 33.33% 0.101 0.1081
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1368 49.63 33.63 0.353 63.08% 0.493 0.5188
2 Coastline 237 50.21 31.79 -0.478 65.4% 0.373 0.3484
2 Fragment 29 55.17 28.9 -2.299 51.72% -0.359 -0.136
2 Heart 34 61.76 30.71 -1.856 35.29% -0.639 -0.5395
2 Opposite Shores 364 43.26 32.8 -0.043 70.6% 0.631 0.696
2 Thematic 478 55.44 35.67 0.256 52.3% 0.164 0.0969
2 Top to Top 70 55.88 34.94 1.209 68.57% 0.874 0.8051
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 39.86 2.693 28.57% -0.239 0.5652
3 Coastline 8 14.29 32.38 -0.859 87.5% 0.216 0.0656
3 Other 25 40.0 29.32 -2.329 60.0% -0.648 -0.475
3 Round (Default) 832 38.53 34.43 0.145 66.95% -0.096 -0.1349
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.162 60.0% -0.556 -0.8159
3 Thematic 115 53.04 37.93 -0.081 53.91% -0.263 -0.6291
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 61.0 10.459 100.0% 0.05 0.5982
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.359 100.0% 0.656 0.7755
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.924 100.0% 0.006 0.0775
4 Other 30 46.67 32.43 -1.03 63.33% -0.908 -0.9777
4 Thematic 360 33.61 47.81 2.21 61.94% -0.848 -1.8449
4 Trapezoid (Default) 397 40.31 35.26 0.005 61.46% -1.164 -1.1559
5 Other 2 50.0 64.0 13.604 100.0% 0.467 0.0059
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 11.583 100.0% 0.094 -2.2975

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 612 28.34 -3.254 38.73% -2.095 -0.0255
Aid From Lesser Spirits 520 29.98 -2.531 41.35% -1.896 0.0168
All Things Weaken 182 24.85 -4.827 35.71% -2.201 -0.0417
Back Against the Wall 435 28.17 -3.257 37.93% -2.032 0.0546
Disintegrating Ecosystem 539 24.83 -5.072 31.91% -2.371 -0.1487
Downward Spiral 779 27.82 -3.385 44.29% -1.867 0.1549
Erosion of Will 546 26.96 -3.963 36.08% -2.291 -0.0831
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 62 32.85 -0.837 64.52% -0.871 -0.1924
Memory Fades to Dust 792 26.38 -3.986 38.13% -2.121 0.0936
Power Corrodes the Spirit 174 25.34 -4.554 35.63% -2.095 -0.0734
Promising Farmlands 579 27.57 -3.686 41.11% -1.956 0.2519
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 38.0 1.168 64.71% -0.644 -0.2321
Thriving Communities 210 28.18 -3.31 37.62% -2.086 0.0024
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.419 33.54% -2.258 -0.0331
Unnatural Proliferation 197 27.02 -3.589 35.53% -2.162 -0.0811
Untended Land Crumbles 199 24.21 -5.14 27.64% -2.534 -0.4317

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2624 47.05% 32.41 -0.267 63.3% -0.368 -1.0563
B 2585 47.2% 32.67 -0.226 63.56% -0.44 -1.2237
C 2664 46.36% 32.54 -0.122 64.68% -0.371 -1.3833
D 2901 49.44% 31.99 -0.383 64.15% -0.367 -1.1443
E 704 46.42% 32.36 -0.55 55.97% -0.731 -1.6251
F 1182 46.4% 33.5 0.018 64.38% -0.337 -1.1779
G 1119 46.91% 34.35 0.442 64.25% -0.314 -1.1457
H 1175 46.11% 33.77 0.166 63.74% -0.354 -1.1934
East 1053 45.34% 41.5 2.127 58.12% -0.275 -0.8513
Northeast 998 47.54% 39.78 1.051 52.2% -0.739 -1.2631
Northwest 956 50.84% 39.5 0.955 50.52% -0.55 -1.1451
Southeast 249 47.79% 39.62 1.72 65.86% -0.059 -0.6885
Southwest 207 55.34% 33.59 -1.589 58.94% -0.451 -0.6494
West 1018 50.64% 39.75 0.939 54.03% -0.561 -0.8882

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 149 0.0% 31.83 -3.651 89.26% -1.031 1.0218
Not Using Events or Tokens 322 63.4% 27.98 -1.542 58.7% -0.23 -0.0151
Skip Initial Invader Actions 688 13.72% 47.0 4.399 89.1% -0.291 -0.9772
Start of Game Growth 984 11.01% 46.61 4.459 91.06% 1.938 1.469
Unlimited Undo 938 36.13% 36.27 0.033 77.19% 0.277 -0.1457
Using Tokens but Not Events 1336 37.24% 33.4 -0.279 74.1% -0.017 -0.068

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1408 22.37 0.0%
II 5876 30.88 68.89%
III 5177 34.39 68.03%
IV 0 37.55

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.324 Win Model: 0.902
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8106 52.76% 32.01 59.54%
2 2573 50.04% 33.69 62.18%
3 992 40.32% 34.68 65.52%
4 790 37.03% 41.29 62.53%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 435
Lose: Adversary condition 1855
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Win: Scenario condition 7542
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2524
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)