Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 211 43.13% 33.55 1.604 64.45% -0.169 0.3989
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 160 51.88% 36.19 -4.216 61.88% -1.208 -0.5196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 107 67.29% 38.96 1.723 50.47% -0.566 0.4804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 66.67% 34.82 -3.701 33.33% -1.051 0.3375
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 28 89.29% 36.79 6.436 28.57% 0.087 1.79
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 0.0 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 91.43% 32.31 0.0 8.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 448 43.4% 31.04 -0.971 72.54% -0.404 -0.1164
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 370 48.78% 34.22 2.166 70.27% 0.286 0.0685
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 339 46.29% 44.95 -0.17 78.17% -0.384 -0.1708
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 151 62.25% 49.27 12.93 70.2% 0.359 0.856
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 100 63.0% 51.22 7.52 67.0% 0.179 0.7167
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 56 75.0% 50.0 4.493 50.0% -0.102 1.0769
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 57 91.23% 42.82 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 510 44.2% 28.42 -0.378 59.61% 0.042 0.4567
The Kingdom of England 1 3 385 56.36% 33.91 -0.51 52.73% -0.925 -0.2118
The Kingdom of England 2 4 326 54.6% 35.14 7.1 49.08% 0.46 1.4884
The Kingdom of England 3 6 154 66.88% 37.66 -3.21 39.61% -1.043 0.6156
The Kingdom of England 4 7 129 67.97% 41.36 17.0 41.09% 0.34 1.9583
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 61.82% 46.89 0.0 33.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 237 71.55% 45.68 16.312 31.22% 0.059 2.464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 465 45.81% 28.09 1.31 41.51% -0.618 0.1845
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 305 50.16% 28.6 2.484 33.11% -0.713 0.1599
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 401 44.64% 36.91 -1.396 36.66% -1.356 0.9151
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 183 60.11% 34.61 3.602 21.31% -0.086 2.2456
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 167 59.28% 34.68 -0.661 14.97% -1.574 0.8331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 204 51.47% 41.52 -4.886 22.55% -0.71 1.1528
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 261 51.92% 40.9 0.0 17.24%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 16 50.0% 35.31 2.351 81.25% 0.684 0.5324
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 9 44.44% 33.89 6.159 55.56% 0.255 1.1417
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 40.0% 33.8 -1.364 40.0% -0.712 0.2637
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 7 42.86% 44.57 11.049 57.14% 0.04 0.7591
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 40.0% 40.4 -1.302 40.0% -0.889 0.4031
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 100.0% 53.0 11.423 66.67% 0.115 1.5098
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 81.82% 47.55 7.86 36.36% -0.806 0.834
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 433 43.65% 30.58 -2.065 74.36% -0.427 -0.2949
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 368 50.68% 32.57 0.496 66.3% -0.411 -0.4503
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 383 55.35% 35.49 3.137 65.27% 0.429 0.9077
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 227 66.08% 40.75 6.797 59.91% 0.08 0.3529
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 94 76.6% 39.31 10.644 45.74% 0.234 1.0715
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 78.33% 41.13 12.154 41.67% 0.078 0.9517
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 144 85.31% 39.69 3.461 36.81% -0.747 0.4727
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 184 37.7% 31.4 2.873 77.72% 0.531 0.3967
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 116 51.72% 35.21 2.006 63.79% -0.285 0.4932
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 93 58.06% 41.2 0.0 65.59%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 44 68.18% 39.66 0.0 47.73%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 35.73 -6.178 33.33% -0.522 0.8136
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 88.89% 33.56 0.0 11.11%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 85.71% 42.9 -0.761 19.05% -0.299 1.6113

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5961 50.2 31.24 62.15% 0.211 0.6581 -0.031
1 Thematic 1569 58.22 35.39 49.2% 0.181 0.7837 0.222
2 Archipelago 5 100.0 33.2 40.0% -0.169
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1213 48.88 34.31 63.81% -0.235 0.1562 0.382
2 Coastline 226 45.54 32.99 67.7% 0.52 0.6082 0.839
2 Fragment 25 56.0 32.08 60.0% -0.115 -0.0491 -0.256
2 Heart 32 53.13 31.13 40.63% -0.881 -0.6085 -0.721
2 Opposite Shores 298 44.33 32.24 67.79% 0.657 1.1493 0.074
2 Thematic 414 56.28 35.32 52.66% 0.124 0.5917 0.396
2 Top to Top 54 50.0 35.91 70.37% 0.155 0.4369 0.167
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 39.86 28.57% -0.515
3 Coastline 10 30.0 33.1 80.0% 0.39 -0.2492
3 Other 23 31.82 28.74 60.87% -0.187
3 Round (Default) 829 37.09 34.56 67.19% -0.68 -0.4119 -0.474
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.195
3 Thematic 86 50.0 37.29 56.98% 0.32 0.0961 -0.095
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 61.0 100.0%
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.334
4 Other 20 45.0 32.05 65.0% 0.087
4 Thematic 271 32.1 47.28 67.53% -0.169 -0.0728 -0.632
4 Trapezoid (Default) 347 43.28 34.8 63.4% -0.266 -0.4034 0.041
5 Other 5 75.0 46.8 80.0% 0.201
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Coastline 2 0.0 29.0 100.0% 0.007 -0.4328
6 Other 5 100.0 30.8 100.0% 0.009 0.8968
6 Star 1 0.0 39.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 5 40.0 30.8 40.0% -0.516 -0.153
6 Two Centers (Default) 5 20.0 39.2 100.0% 0.228 0.6062

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 495 29.3 38.99% -0.99 0.8416 -0.276
Aid From Lesser Spirits 429 29.34 40.33% -1.212 0.4429 -0.323
All Things Weaken 237 24.67 34.6% -1.422 0.5548 -1.228
Back Against the Wall 389 28.28 38.56% -0.503 1.3557 -0.092
Disintegrating Ecosystem 467 24.15 29.55% -1.067 0.9078 -1.172
Downward Spiral 630 27.95 43.81% -1.193 0.7093 -0.137
Erosion of Will 480 26.38 35.42% -1.088 0.9553 -0.585
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 33.12 62.96% -0.226 0.3465 0.24
Memory Fades to Dust 655 26.91 37.71% -1.783 0.1969 -0.732
Power Corrodes the Spirit 240 24.79 35.0% -1.677 0.2144 -1.268
Promising Farmlands 493 26.98 38.54% -1.797 0.2415 -1.299
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 45 39.2 66.67% 0.23 0.6708 0.49
Thriving Communities 263 26.92 34.98% -1.619 0.345 0.083
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.717
Unnatural Proliferation 269 26.56 33.83% -1.291 0.6145 -0.471
Untended Land Crumbles 255 23.94 28.63% -1.01 1.0244 -0.729

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2067 47.03% 32.51 62.51% -0.095 0.6731 -0.333
B 2050 46.07% 32.92 63.8% -0.745 -0.0522 -0.248
C 2157 44.94% 33.08 66.11% 0.408 0.9721 -0.152
D 2293 48.35% 32.5 64.98% 0.486 1.2546 0.224
E 955 45.06% 32.64 59.48% 0.234 0.8331 -0.314
F 1476 46.63% 33.04 65.45% -0.076 0.6341 0.102
G 1445 46.63% 33.66 63.81% 0.008 0.7343 0.023
H 1487 45.24% 33.34 63.62% -0.283 0.4068 -0.26
East 1491 49.76% 38.51 55.2% -0.415 0.2076 -0.379
Northeast 823 49.27% 38.83 52.86% -0.117 0.5641 -0.956
Northwest 757 53.25% 38.07 49.54% -0.508 0.5593 -0.365
Southeast 307 47.88% 39.21 64.82% -1.046 -0.3177 0.63
Southwest 247 56.5% 33.37 57.89% -0.209 0.7618 -0.057
West 1388 55.13% 37.0 52.16% -0.09 0.9129 -0.374

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 146 0.0% 32.16 95.21% 0.016 2.027 0.123
Not Using Events or Tokens 224 57.42% 29.72 64.73% 0.366 0.5802 0.382
Skip Initial Invader Actions 664 11.93% 47.17 90.51% 0.069 -0.0246 0.742
Start of Game Growth 1032 9.28% 44.85 92.83% 0.683 -0.0242 0.881
Unlimited Undo 1046 31.78% 36.19 78.3% -0.18 -0.8798 1.024
Using Tokens but Not Events 1217 34.71% 33.8 75.1% -0.007 -0.0526 0.835

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1228 22.6 0.0%
II 5371 31.02 68.87%
III 4832 34.59 67.72%
IV 0 37.83

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.048 Win Model: 0.18
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7562 52.02% 32.09 59.27%
2 2295 49.98% 33.91 61.61%
3 913 35.57% 35.22 69.55%
4 640 37.96% 40.46 66.09%
5 3 100.0% 35.33 66.67%
6 18 35.71% 33.39 83.33%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 416
Lose: Adversary condition 1657
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Win: Scenario condition 6951
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2319
Lose: Spirit destroyed 68

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)