Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 159 44.03% 33.41 0.582 64.78% -0.455 -0.1711
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 137 53.28% 36.94 2.496 63.5% -0.206 0.2049
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 92 65.22% 38.57 3.509 50.0% -0.971 -0.0947
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 56.67% 38.33 3.734 46.67% -1.032 0.2134
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 26 88.46% 34.38 2.685 23.08% -1.171 0.3313
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.236 22.22% -1.295 0.6583
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 32 93.75% 32.19 1.843 9.38% -2.015 0.0274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 494 44.31% 31.69 -0.211 74.09% 0.14 0.1823
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 439 51.26% 33.26 0.973 68.34% -0.021 -0.0397
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 387 45.19% 45.44 6.396 80.1% 0.462 0.4747
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 162 63.35% 47.78 8.04 65.43% -0.101 0.1869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 123 69.11% 49.32 8.899 62.6% -0.107 0.2602
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 48 77.08% 54.27 11.731 58.33% -0.154 0.6725
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 68 88.24% 45.13 6.963 36.76% -1.2 0.0376
The Kingdom of England 0 1 547 48.35% 28.0 -1.893 59.6% -0.672 -0.3407
The Kingdom of England 1 3 349 51.16% 36.19 2.193 61.32% -0.519 -0.0051
The Kingdom of England 2 4 330 52.74% 36.04 1.918 50.3% -1.155 -0.1874
The Kingdom of England 3 6 170 69.23% 38.01 3.393 40.59% -1.343 0.2357
The Kingdom of England 4 7 140 66.91% 40.18 4.772 38.57% -1.338 0.1598
The Kingdom of England 5 9 60 62.71% 46.43 7.199 36.67% -1.537 0.5366
The Kingdom of England 6 11 246 73.03% 46.82 8.24 33.74% -1.737 0.5113
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 551 47.01% 27.8 -1.941 39.93% -1.765 -1.2512
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 332 55.42% 27.46 -2.182 29.82% -2.225 -1.3257
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 461 41.0% 38.33 1.75 38.61% -2.568 -0.4252
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 191 59.16% 34.85 1.873 22.51% -2.688 -0.4918
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 206 57.28% 34.88 1.548 15.53% -3.012 -0.854
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 223 57.85% 39.2 3.334 20.18% -2.976 -1.1586
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 328 52.29% 39.88 4.457 15.85% -3.253 -1.156
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 463 44.71% 30.76 -0.555 74.73% 0.221 0.3058
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 389 49.74% 33.82 1.126 70.69% 0.047 0.0801
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 418 55.02% 35.52 2.112 65.31% -0.167 0.0676
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 282 64.89% 41.86 5.379 63.83% -0.14 0.1472
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 107 81.31% 38.57 4.017 43.93% -0.663 0.1207
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 78 78.21% 42.23 4.943 43.59% -0.909 0.2579
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 152 84.11% 39.33 4.46 36.84% -1.162 -0.0377
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 109 43.52% 30.15 -0.924 71.56% 0.059 -0.0429
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 84 50.0% 37.06 2.261 70.24% -0.134 0.6447
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 76 55.26% 40.8 3.555 63.16% -0.49 -0.0705
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 37 72.97% 37.59 3.597 43.24% -0.986 0.2673
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 84.62% 35.0 3.848 30.77% -0.85 0.2666
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.596 12.5% -1.381 0.618
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 15 86.67% 42.87 6.725 20.0% -1.387 0.4917

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6237 51.51 31.0 -0.869 62.29% 0.852 1.0249
1 Thematic 1739 56.72 35.83 0.993 50.26% 0.538 0.9
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 30.5 -1.826 50.0% 0.319 0.5455
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1351 49.81 33.57 0.333 62.99% 0.482 0.5338
2 Coastline 233 50.22 31.89 -0.43 65.24% 0.365 0.3725
2 Fragment 28 53.57 29.32 -2.219 53.57% -0.353 -0.0965
2 Heart 34 61.76 30.71 -1.831 35.29% -0.655 -0.5128
2 Opposite Shores 358 43.71 32.8 -0.03 70.11% 0.614 0.7049
2 Thematic 471 55.84 35.64 0.224 51.8% 0.099 0.0578
2 Top to Top 70 55.88 34.94 1.209 68.57% 0.867 0.8366
3 Archipelago 6 66.67 38.0 1.994 16.67% -0.343 0.7393
3 Coastline 8 14.29 32.38 -0.838 87.5% 0.245 0.0462
3 Other 25 40.0 29.32 -2.317 60.0% -0.597 -0.4222
3 Round (Default) 826 38.44 34.31 0.134 66.83% -0.019 -0.0928
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.133 60.0% -0.507 -0.7834
3 Thematic 115 53.04 37.93 -0.095 53.91% -0.247 -0.6488
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 61.0 10.561 100.0% 0.073 0.5815
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.414 100.0% 0.7 0.7501
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.919 100.0% 0.006 -0.0218
4 Other 30 46.67 32.43 -0.991 63.33% -0.781 -0.8949
4 Thematic 353 32.86 47.9 2.238 62.04% -0.79 -1.8748
4 Trapezoid (Default) 392 40.85 35.24 0.035 61.22% -0.998 -1.0848
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.084 100.0% 0.037 -0.5667
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 11.637 100.0% 0.103 -2.6597

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 606 28.29 -3.286 38.45% -2.109 -0.0358
Aid From Lesser Spirits 516 30.0 -2.529 41.28% -1.896 0.0219
All Things Weaken 177 24.83 -4.801 35.59% -2.213 -0.0428
Back Against the Wall 428 28.15 -3.267 37.85% -2.043 0.0485
Disintegrating Ecosystem 533 24.82 -5.074 31.89% -2.378 -0.1537
Downward Spiral 772 27.85 -3.38 44.17% -1.867 0.1557
Erosion of Will 543 27.02 -3.941 36.1% -2.286 -0.0768
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 59 32.12 -1.042 64.41% -0.915 -0.2289
Memory Fades to Dust 785 26.4 -3.985 38.22% -2.117 0.102
Power Corrodes the Spirit 169 25.52 -4.474 35.5% -2.091 -0.0673
Promising Farmlands 571 27.72 -3.614 41.33% -1.94 0.2744
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 38.0 1.153 64.71% -0.641 -0.231
Thriving Communities 201 27.87 -3.402 35.82% -2.16 -0.0647
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.424 33.54% -2.26 -0.0335
Unnatural Proliferation 194 27.13 -3.547 36.08% -2.137 -0.0503
Untended Land Crumbles 192 23.97 -5.231 27.08% -2.554 -0.4479

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2591 47.11% 32.43 -0.249 63.14% -0.382 -1.1428
B 2561 47.24% 32.68 -0.216 63.57% -0.451 -1.3081
C 2638 46.37% 32.52 -0.123 64.67% -0.379 -1.4673
D 2861 49.47% 31.97 -0.389 64.1% -0.381 -1.2308
E 692 46.5% 31.99 -0.68 55.49% -0.769 -1.7338
F 1165 46.57% 33.34 -0.037 64.03% -0.36 -1.2743
G 1099 47.04% 34.25 0.409 63.97% -0.331 -1.2368
H 1155 46.48% 33.7 0.158 63.55% -0.358 -1.2724
East 1040 45.14% 41.54 2.132 58.17% -0.27 -0.9197
Northeast 982 47.3% 39.88 1.09 52.34% -0.724 -1.323
Northwest 942 50.74% 39.52 0.949 50.32% -0.554 -1.2239
Southeast 245 46.94% 39.75 1.783 66.12% -0.047 -0.7533
Southwest 203 54.95% 33.78 -1.559 59.11% -0.44 -0.7127
West 1008 50.55% 39.75 0.922 53.97% -0.55 -0.9488

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 148 0.0% 31.91 -3.607 89.19% -1.013 1.0437
Not Using Events or Tokens 317 63.79% 27.98 -1.553 58.36% -0.235 -0.0188
Skip Initial Invader Actions 681 13.51% 47.0 4.366 88.99% -0.357 -1.0442
Start of Game Growth 968 10.85% 46.68 4.488 91.12% 1.988 1.5177
Unlimited Undo 914 36.17% 36.33 0.067 77.13% 0.291 -0.1285
Using Tokens but Not Events 1319 37.07% 33.35 -0.282 74.0% -0.03 -0.0819

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1388 22.35 0.0%
II 5797 30.84 68.86%
III 5113 34.35 67.91%
IV 0 37.52

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.314 Win Model: 0.829
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7997 52.73% 32.04 59.55%
2 2539 50.28% 33.66 61.95%
3 985 40.31% 34.57 65.38%
4 777 36.88% 41.23 62.42%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 432
Lose: Adversary condition 1832
Win: Sacrifice victory 28
Win: Scenario condition 7436
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2493
Lose: Spirit destroyed 77

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)