Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 218 43.12% 33.6 0.382 64.22% -0.581 -0.0727
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 166 51.2% 36.1 -0.137 61.45% -0.679 -0.2749
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 108 66.67% 39.03 7.652 50.93% 0.135 1.3123
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 54 66.67% 34.28 -0.427 31.48% -0.567 0.8587
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 32 90.63% 35.84 -1.27 25.0% -0.781 0.7994
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 0.0 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 91.43% 32.31 0.0 8.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 461 43.48% 31.02 -1.688 72.45% -0.303 -0.3499
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 380 49.34% 34.39 3.68 70.26% 0.525 0.2926
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 346 46.22% 44.95 6.031 78.03% 0.17 0.3598
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 151 62.25% 49.27 0.0 70.2%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 101 62.38% 51.39 17.432 67.33% 0.177 0.5354
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 58 75.86% 49.83 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 59 89.83% 43.15 -2.127 33.9% -0.563 0.8831
The Kingdom of England 0 1 521 44.23% 28.39 -1.473 59.69% -0.117 0.4403
The Kingdom of England 1 3 393 56.23% 33.98 3.723 52.93% 0.048 0.7256
The Kingdom of England 2 4 329 54.71% 35.1 -0.888 48.94% -0.467 0.6872
The Kingdom of England 3 6 155 67.1% 37.54 -3.275 39.35% -0.209 1.468
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 67.88% 41.94 4.446 41.3% -1.066 0.4012
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 61.82% 46.89 0.0 33.93%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 237 71.55% 45.68 0.0 31.22%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 475 45.68% 28.11 -2.24 41.47% -0.734 -0.0606
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 320 50.63% 28.7 -1.232 33.75% -0.92 0.1518
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 409 44.99% 36.86 -0.204 36.67% -1.121 0.9946
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 203 60.1% 34.14 -0.728 20.2% -1.826 0.3044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 173 60.12% 34.64 0.72 15.03% -1.014 1.3308
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 206 51.46% 41.68 13.091 22.82% -0.014 2.0516
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 265 51.89% 40.96 3.971 17.36% -1.031 1.144
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 25 40.0% 34.68 -0.622 84.0% -0.01 -0.1029
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 17 64.71% 29.82 -2.477 41.18% -1.172 -0.2814
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 13 46.15% 36.62 2.183 53.85% -0.328 0.8748
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 10 60.0% 42.1 3.613 50.0% -0.415 0.4439
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 40.0% 40.4 0.0 40.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 7 71.43% 63.86 12.476 71.43% -0.149 1.089
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 13 84.62% 50.54 9.018 38.46% -0.268 1.2899
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 440 43.18% 30.62 -0.003 74.55% 0.184 0.3548
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 385 51.56% 32.55 0.234 65.19% -0.494 -0.2745
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 394 55.84% 35.32 0.582 64.97% -0.11 0.1703
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 236 66.1% 40.64 4.561 59.32% -0.109 0.3424
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 94 76.6% 39.31 0.0 45.74%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 78.33% 41.13 0.0 41.67%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 148 84.35% 40.38 9.199 37.84% 0.054 1.2127
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 192 37.7% 31.63 1.702 78.65% 0.788 0.3356
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 124 51.61% 35.4 2.339 64.52% 0.1 0.9026
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 94 58.51% 40.89 -5.087 64.89% -0.29 0.1463
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 45 66.67% 40.24 15.057 48.89% 0.282 1.5211
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 37.25 11.492 37.5% 0.264 1.4067
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 35.91 6.236 18.18% -0.051 2.0841
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 24 83.33% 43.67 7.356 20.83% -0.557 1.4133

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6135 50.36 31.23 62.05% -0.042 0.6206 0.056
1 Thematic 1605 58.29 35.33 49.16% -0.277 0.7797 0.272
2 Archipelago 6 83.33 33.33 50.0% 0.088 0.5584 -0.16
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1245 48.54 34.34 64.26% 0.229 0.7468 0.418
2 Coastline 237 45.3 32.76 67.09% -0.183 0.0174 0.639
2 Fragment 25 56.0 32.08 60.0% -0.245
2 Heart 34 55.88 30.71 41.18% -0.328 0.1327 -0.781
2 Opposite Shores 309 44.04 33.07 68.93% 0.906 1.4448 0.237
2 Thematic 426 57.28 35.45 52.82% 0.092 0.8739 0.357
2 Top to Top 58 50.0 35.33 68.97% -0.103 0.0247 0.183
3 Archipelago 8 62.5 36.0 25.0% -0.39 -0.6086 -0.498
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73% -0.791 -1.2978
3 Other 23 31.82 28.74 60.87% -0.18
3 Round (Default) 852 37.15 34.56 67.49% 0.278 0.5822 -0.389
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.229
3 Thematic 87 49.43 37.41 57.47% 0.099 0.3068 -0.162
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 52.5 100.0% 0.119 0.0818
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.336
4 Other 20 45.0 32.05 65.0% 0.079
4 Thematic 278 33.45 46.97 66.91% -0.698 -0.5938 -0.775
4 Trapezoid (Default) 357 43.19 34.8 63.87% 0.094 0.1721 -0.113
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0% 0.036 -0.5512
5 Other 5 75.0 46.8 80.0% 0.217
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Coastline 3 0.0 30.0 100.0% 0.241 -0.3929
6 Other 5 100.0 30.8 100.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 39.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 7 28.57 41.14 57.14% 0.203 0.4443 0.208
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 25.0 42.75 87.5% -0.295 -0.1032

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 508 29.37 39.37% -0.548 1.4224 -0.241
Aid From Lesser Spirits 438 29.25 40.64% -0.912 0.8657 -0.356
All Things Weaken 248 24.58 34.27% -1.833 0.2163 -1.286
Back Against the Wall 397 28.64 39.29% -0.016 1.9226 -0.091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 482 23.93 28.84% -1.989 0.1388 -1.238
Downward Spiral 650 27.84 43.69% -1.032 0.9292 -0.133
Erosion of Will 491 26.36 35.85% -0.478 1.6039 -0.618
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 87 33.15 63.22% -0.122 0.3792 0.267
Memory Fades to Dust 667 26.96 37.63% -1.047 1.094 -0.771
Power Corrodes the Spirit 249 24.82 35.34% -0.308 1.6724 -1.372
Promising Farmlands 509 27.11 38.7% -0.8 1.2216 -1.19
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 47 38.62 65.96% -0.47 0.0261 0.466
Thriving Communities 277 26.92 35.02% -1.554 0.5049 -0.009
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.695
Unnatural Proliferation 281 26.87 34.52% -0.534 1.423 -0.621
Untended Land Crumbles 271 24.13 29.15% -0.835 1.1977 -0.768

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2136 47.13% 32.57 62.69% -0.32 0.4158 -0.333
B 2104 45.63% 33.02 64.45% 1.209 1.906 -0.239
C 2227 44.8% 33.12 65.74% -0.815 -0.3457 -0.196
D 2364 48.17% 32.66 65.23% -0.173 0.5363 0.232
E 989 45.38% 32.74 59.86% 0.004 0.5483 -0.377
F 1529 46.81% 32.96 65.53% -0.187 0.4746 0.104
G 1490 46.73% 33.55 63.83% -0.398 0.2332 -0.074
H 1528 45.62% 33.25 63.68% -0.141 0.5241 -0.287
East 1532 50.07% 38.5 55.35% 0.217 0.8785 -0.356
Northeast 855 49.77% 38.74 53.1% 0.054 0.7137 -0.927
Northwest 779 53.8% 38.04 49.42% -0.661 -0.0505 -0.403
Southeast 317 47.63% 39.57 65.3% 0.029 0.56 0.785
Southwest 251 56.4% 33.75 58.17% -0.073 0.8953 0.163
West 1417 55.56% 36.99 52.01% -0.933 -0.1271 -0.408

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 151 0.0% 32.15 95.36% 0.428 2.6574 0.12
Not Using Events or Tokens 226 57.14% 29.76 65.04% 0.182 0.4088 0.384
Skip Initial Invader Actions 680 12.19% 47.29 90.29% -0.259 -1.2387 0.871
Start of Game Growth 1059 9.47% 44.9 92.63% -0.174 -0.6307 1.051
Unlimited Undo 1086 31.5% 36.27 78.55% 0.501 -0.0509 0.967
Using Tokens but Not Events 1272 35.8% 33.68 74.69% 0.151 0.3063 0.712

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1272 22.65 0.0%
II 5516 31.08 68.85%
III 4978 34.66 67.98%
IV 0 37.91

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.172 Win Model: 0.415
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7774 52.15% 32.05 59.2%
2 2368 49.91% 34.02 61.99%
3 938 35.58% 35.2 69.72%
4 658 38.45% 40.32 66.11%
5 4 100.0% 35.0 75.0%
6 24 31.58% 38.04 83.33%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 428
Lose: Adversary condition 1709
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Win: Scenario condition 7159
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2376
Lose: Spirit destroyed 71

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)