Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 29 3.45% 16.79 0.162 41.38% 0.06 0.223
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 7 0.0% 24.29 3.254 42.86% 0.018 -0.1194
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 60.0% 33.2 9.122 40.0% 0.527 0.5691
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 4 50.0% 30.5 4.484 50.0% 0.128 0.0953
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 66.67% 16.33 -0.564 0.0% -0.511 -0.1404
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 12.563 33.33% 0.14 1.8296
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 345 38.84% 27.98 -4.381 54.2% -0.947 -0.5202
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 261 43.68% 29.32 0.161 50.57% 0.122 0.4528
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 158 60.76% 31.1 1.622 39.87% -0.03 0.5033
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 101 59.41% 25.65 -1.864 21.78% -0.362 0.658
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 76.36% 26.76 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 45.0% 20.55 0.0 15.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 43 86.05% 29.07 -8.352 6.98% -0.165 1.7381
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 673 38.9% 26.4 -2.927 61.96% -0.335 -0.1405
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 553 44.02% 29.77 0.199 60.22% 0.15 0.2094
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 452 46.67% 41.45 7.686 71.02% 0.739 0.7873
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 202 58.91% 44.23 22.436 62.87% 1.304 1.5265
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 139 55.4% 48.12 21.65 65.47% 0.86 1.1862
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 71 73.24% 47.27 0.0 47.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 106 74.53% 30.66 1.116 21.7% -0.904 0.3853
The Kingdom of England 0 1 725 38.67% 24.82 0.387 52.83% 0.105 0.408
The Kingdom of England 1 3 515 49.32% 30.49 2.247 48.16% 0.152 0.4122
The Kingdom of England 2 4 428 51.87% 30.39 -4.014 41.36% -1.647 -1.0912
The Kingdom of England 3 6 215 62.79% 30.98 -3.602 30.7% -0.955 0.1293
The Kingdom of England 4 7 170 66.27% 38.52 0.018 37.06% -0.524 0.458
The Kingdom of England 5 9 67 59.09% 41.42 -8.165 29.85% -0.342 1.3288
The Kingdom of England 6 11 298 66.55% 39.91 -8.748 26.85% -0.333 1.5808
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 619 42.07% 24.85 1.145 36.19% -0.294 0.1118
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 460 45.87% 24.84 1.282 28.91% -0.685 0.0371
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 474 43.04% 34.5 2.281 34.18% -0.39 0.779
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 245 56.33% 31.42 3.049 18.78% -0.332 1.0069
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 209 56.46% 31.09 3.137 13.4% -0.577 0.7204
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 219 50.68% 40.34 -7.671 22.37% -0.199 0.9265
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 415 46.62% 32.88 -7.729 12.77% -0.454 0.953
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 179 25.14% 17.04 -0.867 38.55% -0.151 0.0935
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 118 41.53% 13.52 -3.177 16.95% -0.614 -0.1921
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 84 41.67% 22.55 -1.942 30.95% -0.954 -0.6464
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 57 47.37% 28.88 9.175 31.58% 0.157 0.1644
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 45 37.78% 28.98 1.171 28.89% -0.203 0.4051
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 96 61.46% 26.07 -10.539 13.54% -0.321 0.2591
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 152 44.74% 18.18 7.451 12.5% -0.09 0.9608
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 624 35.79% 25.85 -2.681 62.82% -0.421 -0.1231
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 502 45.11% 29.18 0.477 58.96% 0.295 0.4145
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 539 50.09% 30.97 4.467 57.88% 0.839 1.0578
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 303 64.69% 37.1 5.046 54.13% 0.154 0.454
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 127 71.65% 33.34 -0.18 37.8% -0.559 0.2231
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 86 63.95% 31.07 6.326 31.4% 0.182 1.2825
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 242 72.61% 32.92 0.342 30.58% -0.663 0.3306
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 365 31.59% 24.34 -2.381 58.36% -0.466 -0.281
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 222 45.05% 24.82 7.997 44.14% 1.024 1.7932
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 144 50.69% 33.44 -0.865 54.17% -0.471 -0.2101
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 80 58.75% 30.9 -1.781 36.25% -0.546 0.4438
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 39 58.97% 22.44 0.636 20.51% -0.098 1.0038
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 19 78.95% 33.21 0.0 21.05%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 47 82.98% 37.09 3.498 17.02% -0.886 0.7665

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8989 46.7 27.16 54.17% 0.708 1.0206 0.143
1 Thematic 2087 52.28 30.85 43.75% -0.568 -0.0057 0.213
2 Archipelago 13 61.54 30.0 53.85% 0.051 0.8773 -0.118
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1824 44.43 29.45 55.54% 0.628 0.7572 0.459
2 Coastline 337 41.87 28.93 59.64% 0.015 -0.1136 0.781
2 Fragment 44 54.55 28.36 56.82% 0.167 -0.0374 -0.125
2 Heart 42 52.38 28.24 40.48% -0.121 -0.5332 -0.2
2 Opposite Shores 436 38.0 28.68 60.55% 0.769 0.8496 0.586
2 Thematic 636 48.43 29.38 45.6% -0.241 0.1126 0.282
2 Top to Top 82 48.1 30.4 60.98% 0.086
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% -0.3
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 42 19.51 16.83 35.71% -0.165
3 Round (Default) 1168 36.03 30.45 59.76% 0.436 0.3645 0.397
3 Sunrise 11 54.55 28.55 45.45% -0.133
3 Thematic 120 45.0 32.28 50.83% -0.224 -0.2665 -0.409
4 Archipelago 6 0.0 45.5 83.33%
4 Coastline 7 16.67 43.71 100.0% 0.497
4 Other 31 54.84 28.71 58.06% -0.623 -1.361 -0.002
4 Snake 1 100.0 38.0 0.0% -0.434
4 Thematic 316 33.23 44.53 64.24% 0.103 -0.1186 -0.633
4 Trapezoid (Default) 639 32.58 24.07 44.76% -0.605 -0.7653 -0.6
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 19 23.53 23.79 52.63% -0.114 -0.8869 0.192
5 Thematic 2 50.0 67.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 10 42.86 24.3 80.0%
6 Star 10 10.0 14.8 30.0% -0.286 -0.1565 -0.077
6 Thematic 34 26.47 19.21 35.29% 0.003
6 Two Centers (Default) 27 11.11 19.3 48.15% 0.264 0.7624 -0.418
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.166 -0.397 -0.006
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.497

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 629 27.92 37.84% 0.174 0.2892 0.166
Aid From Lesser Spirits 527 28.15 38.52% 0.089 0.0138 -0.172
All Things Weaken 333 23.15 31.53% -1.12 -0.8446 -1.055
Attenuated Essence 50 20.84 32.0% -0.951 -0.9849 0.341
Back Against the Wall 484 27.95 39.67% 0.273 0.3172 0.397
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 50 22.24 38.0% -0.044 0.1237 0.115
Burn Brightest Before the End 26 35.38 53.85% 0.947 0.9488 -0.156
Disintegrating Ecosystem 616 23.11 28.9% -0.436 -0.1995 -0.481
Downward Spiral 822 26.4 42.09% -0.112 -0.0185 0.333
Erosion of Will 607 25.07 34.76% -0.779 -0.5671 -0.22
Intensifying Exploitation 63 21.33 28.57% 0.056 0.2659 -0.427
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 129 30.97 60.47% -0.283 -0.8575 0.434
Memory Fades to Dust 834 25.39 36.21% -0.634 -0.4238 -0.399
Power Corrodes the Spirit 335 24.44 36.12% -0.063 0.1595 -0.848
Promising Farmlands 616 26.24 37.66% -0.148 0.0923 -0.42
Shattered Fragments of Power 35 30.03 42.86% -0.148 -0.1272 -0.282
Slow Dissolution of Will 66 19.36 24.24% -0.287 0.0117 0.015
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 76 32.51 61.84% 0.989 0.3158 0.732
The Border of Life and Death 18 27.33 44.44% 0.009 -0.547 -0.331
Thriving Communities 375 24.7 32.0% 0.057 0.2687 0.278
Thriving Crops 18 18.89 38.89% 0.002 -0.2947
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.276
Unnatural Proliferation 366 25.36 31.97% -0.503 -0.3398 -0.551
Untended Land Crumbles 367 23.56 30.25% -0.524 -0.3236 -0.161

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3170 42.76% 27.88 53.97% -0.34 0.6289 -0.637
B 3169 41.21% 27.73 53.2% -0.12 0.7591 -0.851
C 3234 41.26% 28.33 56.71% -0.064 0.6286 -0.601
D 3417 44.08% 27.79 56.28% -0.252 0.6631 -0.232
E 1688 39.28% 26.02 49.23% 0.062 0.8217 -0.562
F 2278 42.12% 27.84 55.84% -0.289 0.5538 -0.38
G 2228 42.37% 27.6 53.46% -0.489 0.3179 -0.756
H 2276 40.29% 27.76 54.09% -0.242 0.5753 -0.603
East 2055 45.64% 33.23 48.66% -0.057 0.8309 -0.429
Northeast 1120 45.13% 33.71 47.14% -1.429 -0.6372 -1.295
Northwest 986 48.48% 34.21 46.65% 1.215 2.0422 -0.701
Southeast 499 42.28% 30.52 50.5% 0.037 0.8953 0.215
Southwest 417 46.88% 24.97 43.88% -0.453 0.8469 -0.687
West 1878 49.84% 32.03 46.81% -1.067 -0.0247 -0.65

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 168 0.0% 30.46 88.69% 0.331 1.0322 -0.092
Not Using Events or Tokens 305 50.0% 25.52 56.07% -0.838 -0.4484 0.291
Skip Initial Invader Actions 804 12.89% 44.8 84.58% -0.205 -0.9049 0.969
Start of Game Growth 1278 10.91% 41.35 84.51% -0.194 -0.702 1.12
Unlimited Undo 1560 27.4% 30.17 64.36% 0.109 0.0222 0.793
Using Tokens but Not Events 1689 34.42% 30.21 67.38% 0.334 0.3099 0.359

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3498 13.65 0.0%
II 7140 30.17 67.2%
III 6345 34.82 66.6%
IV 0 38.64

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.281 Win Model: 0.439
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11241 47.67% 27.62 51.61%
2 3336 45.26% 29.96 55.82%
3 1308 34.56% 30.55 60.63%
4 989 33.13% 31.23 52.28%
5 26 30.43% 17.92 42.31%
6 83 19.74% 20.49 48.19%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2361
Lose: Invader deck ran out 533
Lose: Adversary condition 2040
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8995
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2937
Lose: Spirit destroyed 88

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-19 03:08:32 (Pacific Time)