Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 131 41.98% 33.86 0.69 67.18% -0.271 0.0125
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 121 52.89% 37.01 2.46 63.64% -0.135 0.2597
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 80 61.25% 39.69 3.858 53.75% -0.895 -0.0338
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 25 48.0% 40.6 4.62 52.0% -0.962 0.2885
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 85.0% 35.3 3.139 25.0% -1.114 0.4209
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.209 22.22% -1.247 0.8206
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 96.3% 32.56 2.015 11.11% -1.788 0.2891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 444 45.25% 31.51 -0.266 73.42% 0.196 0.2384
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 406 52.23% 33.05 0.926 67.24% 0.026 0.0001
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 352 45.71% 45.36 6.328 79.55% 0.464 0.4643
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 157 62.82% 47.26 7.761 64.33% -0.114 0.1785
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 116 69.83% 49.16 8.823 62.07% -0.053 0.3178
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 46 76.09% 54.46 11.804 58.7% -0.147 0.6913
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 64 87.5% 44.81 6.678 35.94% -1.225 0.0238
The Kingdom of England 0 1 510 47.94% 28.08 -1.876 60.0% -0.604 -0.2736
The Kingdom of England 1 3 309 52.61% 35.97 2.057 60.19% -0.472 0.0175
The Kingdom of England 2 4 295 51.54% 36.46 2.076 51.19% -1.089 -0.1246
The Kingdom of England 3 6 152 69.54% 38.39 3.481 40.79% -1.275 0.3051
The Kingdom of England 4 7 129 69.53% 39.38 4.449 36.43% -1.349 0.165
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 63.64% 46.27 7.054 35.71% -1.532 0.5392
The Kingdom of England 6 11 228 74.44% 46.36 8.057 33.33% -1.695 0.5627
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 508 48.43% 27.57 -1.995 38.98% -1.694 -1.1692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 298 57.38% 27.32 -2.169 29.53% -2.123 -1.2348
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 419 39.38% 38.61 1.649 38.9% -2.615 -0.4876
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 180 59.44% 34.16 1.572 21.11% -2.721 -0.5364
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 205 57.07% 34.96 1.574 15.61% -2.977 -0.8263
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 211 58.77% 39.44 3.671 20.85% -2.808 -0.982
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 294 50.51% 40.3 4.537 16.67% -3.178 -1.0499
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 406 44.58% 30.74 -0.585 74.88% 0.29 0.378
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 359 48.6% 34.36 1.381 72.14% 0.171 0.1819
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 379 54.62% 35.74 2.169 66.49% -0.065 0.1549
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 266 63.91% 42.17 5.553 64.29% -0.063 0.2204
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 98 82.65% 38.2 3.853 42.86% -0.595 0.1753
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 74 78.38% 42.76 5.128 44.59% -0.833 0.3342
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 134 83.46% 39.6 4.515 37.31% -1.133 -0.0014
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 79 50.0% 29.97 -1.01 69.62% 0.224 0.1019
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 62 51.61% 36.92 2.079 69.35% -0.032 0.683
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 62 56.45% 40.23 3.204 62.9% -0.477 -0.0395
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 31 74.19% 35.71 2.665 38.71% -1.082 0.1772
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7 85.71% 35.14 3.906 28.57% -0.595 0.5451
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.583 12.5% -1.36 0.701
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 91.67% 40.5 5.564 16.67% -1.296 0.6398

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5558 52.17 30.96 -0.912 61.37% 0.491 0.8497
1 Thematic 1631 56.31 35.98 1.028 50.15% 0.219 0.7226
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1220 49.42 33.36 0.254 62.79% 0.326 0.522
2 Coastline 204 52.48 32.02 -0.296 64.22% 0.263 0.4056
2 Fragment 25 48.0 30.04 -1.705 60.0% -0.258 0.1644
2 Heart 29 62.07 31.9 -1.413 34.48% -0.715 -0.4227
2 Opposite Shores 325 42.45 33.29 0.177 71.08% 0.564 0.7883
2 Thematic 427 55.97 35.62 0.136 51.05% 0.008 0.0528
2 Top to Top 67 55.38 35.09 1.276 67.16% 0.661 0.7955
3 Coastline 5 25.0 32.4 0.306 80.0% 0.204 0.1708
3 Other 23 43.48 29.74 -2.055 60.87% -0.424 -0.0089
3 Round (Default) 759 38.01 34.21 0.066 67.59% 0.079 0.1176
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.111 60.0% -0.462 -0.685
3 Thematic 109 54.13 37.79 -0.143 52.29% -0.056 -0.4132
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.358 100.0% 0.761 0.9188
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.944 100.0% 0.009 0.0364
4 Other 28 46.43 30.11 -1.864 60.71% -0.781 -0.6676
4 Thematic 321 33.33 48.52 2.408 62.62% -0.287 -1.3737
4 Trapezoid (Default) 335 38.13 35.83 0.17 63.88% -0.604 -0.621
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.135 100.0% 0.042 -0.1767

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 554 28.39 -3.256 37.55% -2.136 -0.0653
Aid From Lesser Spirits 464 29.98 -2.562 39.87% -1.924 -0.0055
All Things Weaken 148 25.03 -4.775 33.11% -2.247 -0.0924
Back Against the Wall 392 28.37 -3.186 37.76% -2.013 0.0835
Disintegrating Ecosystem 489 24.93 -5.04 31.9% -2.38 -0.1559
Downward Spiral 719 27.61 -3.49 43.67% -1.881 0.1357
Erosion of Will 491 27.15 -3.896 35.64% -2.296 -0.0865
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 46 32.67 -0.858 63.04% -0.799 -0.0951
Memory Fades to Dust 731 26.21 -4.077 37.62% -2.15 0.0647
Power Corrodes the Spirit 137 25.66 -4.372 36.5% -2.013 0.0068
Promising Farmlands 519 27.54 -3.745 40.46% -1.987 0.2252
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 37.7 1.168 59.26% -0.681 -0.2457
Thriving Communities 162 28.81 -2.922 38.27% -1.987 0.1107
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.408 33.54% -2.252 -0.0335
Unnatural Proliferation 156 27.28 -3.426 35.26% -2.136 -0.0589
Untended Land Crumbles 158 23.67 -5.464 26.58% -2.557 -0.4584

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2357 47.05% 32.3 -0.306 62.83% -0.181 -1.2703
B 2324 47.44% 32.61 -0.237 63.51% -0.211 -1.396
C 2389 46.26% 32.49 -0.148 64.96% -0.134 -1.5486
D 2606 49.75% 31.88 -0.435 63.81% -0.148 -1.3248
E 551 44.42% 32.41 -0.611 55.72% -0.569 -1.8464
F 1035 46.97% 33.35 -0.019 64.35% -0.076 -1.3188
G 925 46.04% 34.56 0.46 64.43% -0.115 -1.3457
H 1006 45.09% 34.1 0.261 63.82% -0.127 -1.3672
East 963 45.74% 41.71 2.209 58.05% -0.035 -0.9854
Northeast 901 47.44% 40.02 1.054 51.94% -0.572 -1.462
Northwest 887 50.51% 39.71 1.013 50.62% -0.354 -1.3187
Southeast 205 47.8% 39.99 2.051 67.32% 0.14 -0.8615
Southwest 175 54.02% 34.27 -1.419 60.0% -0.202 -0.8103
West 946 51.11% 39.62 0.804 53.07% -0.391 -1.0772

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 140 0.0% 32.31 -3.475 89.29% -0.967 1.0768
Not Using Events or Tokens 289 65.57% 28.2 -1.4 57.09% -0.223 -0.0038
Skip Initial Invader Actions 643 13.36% 47.39 4.52 89.11% -0.316 -1.02
Start of Game Growth 925 10.6% 46.92 4.577 91.24% 2.019 1.5652
Unlimited Undo 816 34.94% 36.48 -0.02 77.7% 0.285 -0.1273
Using Tokens but Not Events 1162 38.92% 33.47 -0.278 72.55% -0.079 -0.1263

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1266 22.34 0.0%
II 5238 30.75 68.35%
III 4580 34.26 67.66%
IV 0 37.47

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.32 Win Model: 0.361
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7197 53.15% 32.09 58.79%
2 2294 50.09% 33.66 61.73%
3 908 40.31% 34.48 65.53%
4 685 35.82% 41.81 63.8%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 387
Lose: Adversary condition 1676
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Win: Scenario condition 6655
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2273
Lose: Spirit destroyed 69

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)