Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 153 43.79% 33.48 0.646 66.01% -0.348 -0.0704
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 136 53.68% 36.88 2.487 63.24% -0.178 0.2161
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 90 65.56% 38.87 3.651 51.11% -0.881 -0.0023
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 28 53.57% 38.5 3.696 46.43% -1.111 0.1404
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 23 86.96% 35.52 3.444 26.09% -1.004 0.5176
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.245 22.22% -1.271 0.706
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 93.1% 32.24 1.821 10.34% -1.943 0.1064
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 477 44.63% 31.55 -0.253 73.79% 0.163 0.2032
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 428 51.88% 33.19 0.96 67.99% 0.008 -0.0213
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 377 46.13% 45.38 6.394 79.84% 0.492 0.4963
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 161 63.75% 47.66 7.976 65.22% -0.081 0.2076
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 122 68.85% 49.24 8.851 62.3% -0.094 0.2737
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 48 77.08% 54.27 11.735 58.33% -0.125 0.7044
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 67 88.06% 44.73 6.713 35.82% -1.231 0.0107
The Kingdom of England 0 1 533 48.12% 28.05 -1.878 59.66% -0.64 -0.308
The Kingdom of England 1 3 339 52.08% 35.97 2.105 60.47% -0.508 -0.0039
The Kingdom of England 2 4 319 52.68% 36.26 2.012 50.78% -1.091 -0.1226
The Kingdom of England 3 6 161 68.75% 38.52 3.591 41.61% -1.28 0.2985
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 67.15% 39.87 4.636 37.68% -1.347 0.1513
The Kingdom of England 5 9 59 62.07% 46.8 7.334 37.29% -1.501 0.5662
The Kingdom of England 6 11 236 73.59% 46.72 8.199 33.9% -1.707 0.5481
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 542 47.05% 27.84 -1.932 40.04% -1.733 -1.2183
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 323 56.35% 27.52 -2.149 30.03% -2.163 -1.2668
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 448 41.07% 38.15 1.599 38.17% -2.589 -0.4517
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 187 59.89% 34.6 1.786 21.93% -2.669 -0.484
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 206 57.28% 34.88 1.545 15.53% -2.987 -0.84
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 213 58.22% 39.59 3.622 21.13% -2.839 -1.0191
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 304 51.16% 40.3 4.576 16.78% -3.165 -1.0583
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 445 44.72% 30.66 -0.618 74.38% 0.221 0.3054
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 384 49.61% 33.93 1.178 71.09% 0.1 0.121
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 412 55.1% 35.39 2.046 64.81% -0.166 0.066
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 279 64.52% 41.98 5.442 64.16% -0.096 0.1905
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 106 81.13% 38.74 4.086 44.34% -0.614 0.1636
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 78 78.21% 42.23 4.943 43.59% -0.878 0.2789
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 145 83.33% 39.61 4.541 37.24% -1.134 -0.0029
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 103 45.1% 30.16 -0.944 70.87% 0.097 -0.0092
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 78 50.0% 37.24 2.309 70.51% -0.065 0.6777
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 71 56.34% 40.75 3.593 63.38% -0.421 0.0105
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 35 74.29% 37.46 3.54 42.86% -0.943 0.3063
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 11 81.82% 34.36 3.441 27.27% -0.953 0.1734
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.611 12.5% -1.358 0.6612
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 13 84.62% 44.31 7.344 23.08% -1.228 0.6775

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 6017 51.71 31.0 -0.876 61.97% 0.599 0.9322
1 Thematic 1718 56.78 35.87 0.992 50.12% 0.278 0.7758
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1311 49.81 33.59 0.344 63.23% 0.428 0.6281
2 Coastline 216 52.34 32.02 -0.306 64.81% 0.355 0.5092
2 Fragment 28 53.57 29.32 -2.186 53.57% -0.387 0.0093
2 Heart 33 63.64 30.76 -1.849 33.33% -0.771 -0.4492
2 Opposite Shores 350 42.98 32.75 -0.056 70.29% 0.536 0.7651
2 Thematic 458 55.9 35.68 0.203 51.97% 0.033 0.0944
2 Top to Top 69 55.22 35.12 1.27 68.12% 0.758 0.8899
3 Coastline 8 14.29 32.38 -0.803 87.5% 0.282 0.2441
3 Other 24 41.67 29.38 -2.295 58.33% -0.604 -0.184
3 Round (Default) 797 37.96 34.22 0.105 67.75% 0.104 0.1602
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.07 60.0% -0.406 -0.6
3 Thematic 112 52.68 38.07 -0.066 53.57% -0.148 -0.4769
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.462 100.0% 0.776 0.9009
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.858 100.0% 0.009 0.0557
4 Other 28 46.43 30.11 -1.885 60.71% -0.755 -0.6431
4 Thematic 337 33.23 48.23 2.332 62.61% -0.485 -1.5086
4 Trapezoid (Default) 371 40.73 35.28 0.037 61.46% -0.707 -0.6728
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.116 100.0% 0.042 -0.2124
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 11.364 100.0% 0.103 -2.8398

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 587 28.36 -3.271 38.33% -2.111 -0.0377
Aid From Lesser Spirits 494 30.19 -2.454 40.89% -1.887 0.0324
All Things Weaken 171 24.77 -4.834 35.67% -2.205 -0.0461
Back Against the Wall 417 28.18 -3.285 37.41% -2.056 0.0381
Disintegrating Ecosystem 521 25.02 -4.999 32.44% -2.348 -0.1234
Downward Spiral 754 27.75 -3.429 44.3% -1.864 0.1573
Erosion of Will 526 27.13 -3.914 36.12% -2.283 -0.074
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 57 32.02 -1.134 63.16% -0.952 -0.2597
Memory Fades to Dust 765 26.39 -4.007 38.17% -2.115 0.1035
Power Corrodes the Spirit 161 25.45 -4.495 36.02% -2.077 -0.0558
Promising Farmlands 558 27.55 -3.731 40.68% -1.975 0.2394
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 38.68 1.534 64.52% -0.558 -0.1471
Thriving Communities 188 27.64 -3.488 35.64% -2.154 -0.0603
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.433 33.54% -2.257 -0.0317
Unnatural Proliferation 181 27.23 -3.54 35.91% -2.137 -0.0479
Untended Land Crumbles 182 23.52 -5.468 26.37% -2.597 -0.4916

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2498 47.02% 32.44 -0.23 63.41% -0.198 -1.3105
B 2478 47.29% 32.62 -0.248 63.72% -0.268 -1.4762
C 2544 46.41% 32.4 -0.179 64.74% -0.204 -1.6438
D 2775 49.6% 31.94 -0.394 64.11% -0.19 -1.3921
E 645 46.01% 31.95 -0.727 55.04% -0.634 -1.9458
F 1122 46.75% 33.27 -0.061 63.99% -0.177 -1.4429
G 1029 47.04% 34.29 0.4 64.43% -0.161 -1.418
H 1109 46.33% 33.83 0.204 63.48% -0.178 -1.4438
East 1012 45.3% 41.64 2.171 58.4% -0.071 -1.0517
Northeast 957 47.38% 39.96 1.098 52.46% -0.538 -1.4692
Northwest 926 51.08% 39.55 0.967 50.32% -0.369 -1.3685
Southeast 225 48.0% 39.79 1.911 67.11% 0.138 -0.8877
Southwest 193 55.21% 33.79 -1.542 59.59% -0.233 -0.8533
West 987 50.81% 39.79 0.912 53.8% -0.368 -1.0932

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 147 0.0% 32.02 -3.562 89.8% -0.901 1.1535
Not Using Events or Tokens 313 63.64% 28.02 -1.53 58.15% -0.241 -0.0236
Skip Initial Invader Actions 673 13.52% 47.03 4.376 88.86% -0.382 -1.0755
Start of Game Growth 957 10.87% 46.67 4.503 91.01% 2.011 1.5478
Unlimited Undo 895 36.15% 36.21 -0.01 76.87% 0.267 -0.1535
Using Tokens but Not Events 1264 38.13% 33.46 -0.263 73.34% -0.049 -0.1018

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1330 22.34 0.0%
II 5601 30.81 68.65%
III 4965 34.31 67.73%
IV 0 37.5

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.306 Win Model: 0.463
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7744 52.88% 32.08 59.3%
2 2462 50.39% 33.69 61.98%
3 952 39.92% 34.52 65.97%
4 738 37.07% 41.3 62.6%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 422
Lose: Adversary condition 1768
Win: Sacrifice victory 27
Win: Scenario condition 7181
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2424
Lose: Spirit destroyed 74

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)