Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 5 20.0% 22.2 1.338 60.0% 0.259 0.1653
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 1 100.0% 51.0 16.064 100.0% 0.398 0.1811
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 333 39.04% 28.77 -1.751 55.86% -0.435 -0.0422
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 254 44.49% 29.66 5.822 50.79% 0.345 0.7693
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 155 60.65% 31.35 8.61 40.0% 0.428 0.9692
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 98 59.18% 26.05 -1.588 22.45% -0.616 0.1627
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 76.36% 26.76 -7.545 18.18% -0.361 1.1866
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 45.0% 20.55 0.0 15.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 42 88.1% 29.76 0.0 7.14%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 652 39.54% 26.96 2.479 63.19% 0.556 0.7417
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 532 44.63% 30.32 -3.304 61.28% -0.814 -0.7876
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 437 45.98% 41.78 7.561 71.62% 0.641 0.7871
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 200 58.5% 44.07 3.376 62.5% -0.064 0.1985
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 137 55.47% 47.94 20.034 64.96% 0.462 0.7338
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 71 73.24% 47.27 0.0 47.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 101 74.26% 31.28 -6.137 22.77% -0.898 0.3312
The Kingdom of England 0 1 699 39.26% 25.14 -3.371 53.51% -0.614 -0.2244
The Kingdom of England 1 3 499 49.7% 30.85 0.767 48.7% -0.519 0.0691
The Kingdom of England 2 4 404 52.72% 31.78 -5.568 43.56% -0.916 -0.3034
The Kingdom of England 3 6 211 62.09% 31.25 -12.247 31.28% -1.103 0.0258
The Kingdom of England 4 7 167 66.27% 38.98 13.511 37.72% 0.662 1.6617
The Kingdom of England 5 9 66 60.0% 42.05 0.0 30.3%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 297 66.78% 40.05 -3.999 26.94% -0.901 0.9523
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 603 42.03% 25.07 -0.766 36.48% -0.709 -0.1818
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 444 45.95% 25.14 -1.764 29.5% -0.664 0.1939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 468 42.74% 34.62 3.961 34.4% 0.17 1.3994
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 238 56.3% 31.61 1.613 18.91% -0.536 0.7142
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 207 56.52% 31.13 -9.667 13.53% -0.234 1.1047
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 218 50.92% 40.52 19.024 22.48% 0.138 1.1795
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 413 46.84% 33.04 4.361 12.83% -0.61 0.8602
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 157 26.75% 17.51 0.504 39.49% 0.092 0.4403
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 111 44.14% 13.76 -2.793 17.12% -0.493 -0.2269
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 73 43.84% 24.22 -3.035 34.25% -0.718 -0.3998
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 49 51.02% 27.61 -6.341 28.57% -0.951 -0.6657
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 44 36.36% 29.18 -7.98 29.55% -0.169 0.63
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 95 61.05% 26.35 1.221 13.68% -0.097 0.4168
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 147 44.22% 17.75 -4.836 12.24% -1.02 0.127
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 603 36.21% 26.47 1.578 64.34% 0.144 0.395
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 492 45.42% 29.48 -1.87 59.55% -0.5 -0.3085
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 524 50.95% 31.1 1.759 57.82% -0.121 0.0969
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 297 64.65% 37.22 4.545 54.21% -0.124 0.3274
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 117 71.79% 34.78 2.554 39.32% -0.114 0.6304
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 85 63.53% 30.71 -8.926 30.59% -0.644 0.4245
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 235 73.08% 33.43 -6.929 31.06% -1.024 0.0079
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 342 32.84% 25.16 0.104 60.23% 0.001 0.2475
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 218 44.95% 24.71 -3.307 43.58% -0.599 0.1527
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 136 51.47% 34.63 -3.695 56.62% -0.546 -0.0613
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 73 60.27% 32.9 3.464 38.36% -0.063 0.7668
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 37 59.46% 23.03 2.641 21.62% -0.28 0.6993
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 19 78.95% 33.21 0.0 21.05%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 44 81.82% 37.39 0.0 18.18%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8661 46.93 27.58 54.92% -0.105 0.2681 0.118
1 Thematic 2027 52.85 31.37 44.6% 0.327 1.0413 0.231
2 Archipelago 9 66.67 33.56 55.56% -0.116
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1759 44.6 29.85 56.45% -0.017 0.1441 0.514
2 Coastline 327 42.24 29.57 60.86% 0.895 0.7021 0.754
2 Fragment 41 53.66 29.05 58.54% -0.213 -0.2611 -0.127
2 Heart 41 53.66 28.93 41.46% -0.354 -0.5664 -0.223
2 Opposite Shores 419 38.35 29.14 61.1% -0.095 0.037 0.587
2 Thematic 603 49.42 30.39 47.26% -0.22 0.4999 0.275
2 Top to Top 81 48.1 30.47 60.49% 0.835 0.7502 0.074
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% -0.299
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 42 19.51 16.83 35.71% 0.344 -0.5322 -0.167
3 Round (Default) 1096 36.9 31.28 61.04% -0.376 -0.399 0.343
3 Sunrise 11 54.55 28.55 45.45% -0.136
3 Thematic 116 45.69 33.01 51.72% 0.159 0.1671 -0.44
4 Archipelago 6 0.0 45.5 83.33% -0.173 -0.3243
4 Coastline 7 16.67 43.71 100.0% 0.498
4 Other 31 54.84 28.71 58.06% -0.549 -1.1172 0.008
4 Snake 1 100.0 38.0 0.0% -0.33
4 Thematic 312 33.33 44.87 64.74% -0.073 -0.01 -0.632
4 Trapezoid (Default) 621 32.89 24.26 45.09% 0.184 0.1892 -0.587
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 18 25.0 25.11 55.56% -0.059 -0.3833 0.192
5 Thematic 2 50.0 67.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 10 42.86 24.3 80.0% -0.464 -0.508
6 Star 10 10.0 14.8 30.0% -0.143 0.4899 -0.088
6 Thematic 34 26.47 19.21 35.29% -0.131 0.0733 0.001
6 Two Centers (Default) 25 12.0 20.04 48.0% -0.421
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% 0.535 -0.1401 -0.516

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 611 28.11 37.97% 0.247 0.3183 0.079
Aid From Lesser Spirits 515 28.18 38.45% -0.755 -0.8645 -0.147
All Things Weaken 323 23.3 32.51% 0.085 0.2624 -1.009
Attenuated Essence 45 22.31 35.56% -0.353 -0.3008 0.469
Back Against the Wall 474 28.1 39.87% 0.381 0.3659 0.378
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 46 22.8 39.13% 0.442 0.6254 0.273
Burn Brightest Before the End 23 34.57 52.17% 0.874 0.9604 -0.173
Disintegrating Ecosystem 600 23.31 29.0% 0.393 0.6846 -0.565
Downward Spiral 801 26.61 42.32% -0.07 0.0363 0.321
Erosion of Will 597 25.29 35.18% 0.664 0.8303 -0.225
Intensifying Exploitation 58 20.98 27.59% -0.086 0.1021 -0.37
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 125 31.74 61.6% 1.113 0.6855 0.427
Memory Fades to Dust 813 25.6 36.65% -0.106 0.1287 -0.403
Power Corrodes the Spirit 327 24.61 36.39% 0.505 0.6011 -0.846
Promising Farmlands 602 26.54 38.04% -0.196 0.168 -0.421
Shattered Fragments of Power 26 29.12 46.15% 0.114 0.1794 -0.05
Slow Dissolution of Will 60 19.3 25.0% 0.089 0.5523 0.027
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 73 32.4 60.27% -0.292 -0.8929 0.719
The Border of Life and Death 15 28.13 46.67% 0.424 -0.0517 -0.295
Thriving Communities 366 24.83 31.97% 0.311 0.5363 0.281
Thriving Crops 15 20.67 40.0% -0.192 -0.4168
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.309
Unnatural Proliferation 354 25.73 32.49% -0.579 -0.4574 -0.499
Untended Land Crumbles 350 23.92 30.57% -0.31 -0.0781 -0.159

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3048 43.09% 28.3 54.79% 0.046 0.9642 -0.645
B 3066 41.61% 28.06 53.75% 0.144 0.9853 -0.88
C 3127 41.67% 28.69 57.37% 0.084 0.7666 -0.576
D 3285 44.39% 28.32 57.14% 0.026 0.8685 -0.239
E 1596 39.71% 26.52 49.56% -0.069 0.5828 -0.562
F 2171 42.64% 28.4 56.98% -0.101 0.6585 -0.366
G 2134 42.69% 28.15 54.45% -0.715 0.0425 -0.722
H 2193 40.64% 28.18 54.95% 0.218 0.936 -0.592
East 1995 46.11% 33.91 49.82% 0.477 1.291 -0.438
Northeast 1091 45.69% 34.32 48.21% -0.595 0.0729 -1.3
Northwest 952 49.05% 34.82 47.27% 0.729 1.5342 -0.686
Southeast 480 42.71% 31.28 51.88% -0.293 0.4127 0.231
Southwest 399 47.74% 25.64 45.36% -1.141 0.2489 -0.728
West 1817 50.3% 32.62 47.66% -0.61 0.1834 -0.639

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 166 0.0% 30.68 89.16% -0.152
Not Using Events or Tokens 303 50.35% 25.69 56.44% -0.874 -0.3889 0.269
Skip Initial Invader Actions 795 12.87% 45.18 85.28% 0.64 -0.0906 0.982
Start of Game Growth 1227 10.85% 42.46 86.55% 0.033 -0.4128 1.147
Unlimited Undo 1485 28.06% 30.96 65.72% -0.539 -0.5725 0.779
Using Tokens but Not Events 1653 34.53% 30.54 68.12% 0.679 0.5165 0.4

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3227 14.25 0.0%
II 6961 30.3 67.52%
III 6171 34.84 66.86%
IV 0 38.61

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.362 Win Model: -0.291
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 10838 48.0% 28.08 52.41%
2 3216 45.54% 30.42 56.69%
3 1233 35.34% 31.33 61.88%
4 967 33.37% 31.54 52.74%
5 25 31.82% 18.64 44.0%
6 80 20.55% 21.01 48.75%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2062
Lose: Invader deck ran out 518
Lose: Adversary condition 2005
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8797
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2863
Lose: Spirit destroyed 85

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)