Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 46 6.52% 16.96 -0.25 39.13% 0.004 0.4903
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 12 25.0% 20.83 -2.97 33.33% -0.446 -0.4265
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 8 37.5% 20.75 -1.657 25.0% -0.287 -0.1333
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 8 37.5% 36.25 2.81 62.5% -0.397 -0.2696
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 7 57.14% 22.71 3.324 14.29% -0.192 0.3113
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -4.156 0.0% -0.123 0.8509
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 12.093 33.33% 0.179 2.0965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 354 38.14% 27.68 -1.763 53.67% -0.397 0.0769
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 264 43.56% 29.06 -2.134 50.0% -0.587 -0.2959
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 165 60.61% 30.32 -2.253 38.18% -0.924 -0.3813
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 103 58.25% 25.16 -6.486 21.36% -0.676 0.2695
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 76.36% 26.76 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 21 42.86% 19.57 -7.88 14.29% -0.27 1.1974
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 43 86.05% 29.07 0.0 6.98%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 696 38.33% 25.83 -3.215 60.34% -0.777 -0.5546
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 562 43.67% 29.67 0.677 60.14% 0.465 0.4318
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 459 46.39% 41.09 1.163 70.37% -0.448 -0.4353
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 204 58.82% 43.79 -8.045 62.25% -0.46 -0.218
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 143 53.85% 47.71 10.239 65.03% 0.592 0.7869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 75 73.33% 45.64 -0.632 45.33% -0.522 -0.1435
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 108 73.15% 30.09 -6.905 21.3% -0.464 0.7768
The Kingdom of England 0 1 744 38.36% 24.78 2.339 52.55% 0.051 0.3604
The Kingdom of England 1 3 523 49.33% 30.3 2.689 47.8% 0.094 0.4137
The Kingdom of England 2 4 435 51.49% 30.51 -0.583 41.84% -0.318 0.1607
The Kingdom of England 3 6 219 62.56% 30.66 -0.705 30.14% -0.742 0.2979
The Kingdom of England 4 7 171 65.88% 38.3 -7.793 36.84% -0.268 0.7318
The Kingdom of England 5 9 72 57.75% 40.01 1.699 29.17% -0.409 1.1012
The Kingdom of England 6 11 301 66.21% 39.63 -5.196 26.58% -0.935 0.9073
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 626 41.76% 24.68 -0.856 35.94% -0.238 0.1383
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 466 45.71% 24.57 -3.408 28.54% -1.522 -0.6449
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 479 43.01% 34.24 -6.006 33.82% -1.231 -0.0469
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 250 56.8% 31.35 3.791 18.8% -0.462 0.6784
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 210 56.67% 30.94 -2.319 13.33% -0.04 1.2696
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 221 50.68% 40.15 -4.221 22.17% -0.551 0.7212
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 423 46.68% 32.88 6.257 12.53% -1.245 0.1478
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 189 25.93% 17.3 0.496 39.15% 0.135 0.4547
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 123 40.65% 13.75 1.794 17.89% 0.227 0.7154
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 88 40.91% 21.82 -3.076 29.55% -0.318 0.0875
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 61 47.54% 28.23 -0.612 31.15% -0.474 -0.4459
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 48 37.5% 28.44 1.314 29.17% -0.349 0.1575
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 97 60.82% 26.53 19.246 14.43% 0.109 0.5666
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 152 44.74% 18.18 5.953 12.5% -0.1 0.9806
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 644 35.15% 25.7 1.145 62.27% 0.195 0.4374
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 510 44.99% 29.06 1.674 58.63% 0.223 0.2576
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 547 49.54% 30.86 6.083 57.77% 0.92 1.1611
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 304 64.47% 36.97 -0.887 53.95% -0.365 -0.1143
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 128 71.09% 33.08 -3.375 37.5% -1.144 -0.39
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 89 62.92% 30.22 1.09 30.34% -0.292 0.8068
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 243 72.31% 32.78 -2.636 30.45% -0.74 0.1564
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 381 31.05% 24.0 -1.489 57.74% -0.199 0.0409
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 225 45.33% 24.72 -0.865 44.0% -0.03 0.7237
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 150 49.33% 33.33 4.431 53.33% 0.244 0.612
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 86 60.47% 31.0 1.198 37.21% -0.226 0.9441
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 40 57.5% 21.88 -8.897 20.0% -0.358 0.5989
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 21 76.19% 30.05 -7.315 19.05% -0.497 1.0835
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 47 82.98% 37.09 0.0 17.02%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9173 46.57 26.95 53.74% 0.119 0.6451 0.221
1 Thematic 2126 51.98 30.56 43.32% -0.307 0.5472 0.289
2 Archipelago 15 66.67 26.8 46.67% -0.211 0.8441 -0.112
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1871 43.95 29.21 55.21% -0.124 0.1535 0.482
2 Coastline 341 41.67 28.88 59.82% 0.172 0.2745 0.844
2 Fragment 45 53.33 28.64 57.78% 0.017 0.0295 -0.102
2 Heart 44 54.55 28.73 43.18% 0.447 0.5582 -0.164
2 Opposite Shores 444 37.76 28.87 61.26% 0.838 1.1745 0.624
2 Thematic 655 47.94 29.06 44.89% -0.654 0.0358 0.313
2 Top to Top 85 50.0 29.71 61.18% 0.072 0.3137 0.129
3 Archipelago 17 64.71 28.88 29.41% -0.259 -0.9796 -0.297
3 Coastline 12 33.33 31.67 75.0% 0.121 -0.219
3 Other 42 19.51 16.83 35.71% 0.441 -0.1614 -0.166
3 Round (Default) 1209 34.97 30.03 59.31% -0.784 -0.7779 0.423
3 Sunrise 11 54.55 28.55 45.45% -0.126
3 Thematic 122 44.26 32.16 50.82% -0.09 -0.0059 -0.402
4 Archipelago 6 0.0 45.5 83.33%
4 Coastline 7 16.67 43.71 100.0% 0.5
4 Other 33 54.55 29.45 60.61% 0.137 -0.4816 0.003
4 Snake 1 100.0 38.0 0.0% -0.499
4 Thematic 316 33.23 44.53 64.24% -0.465 -0.197 -0.614
4 Trapezoid (Default) 646 32.7 24.02 44.74% -0.623 -0.4588 -0.615
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 20 22.22 24.5 55.0% -0.002 -0.3875 0.202
5 Thematic 3 66.67 57.67 66.67% -0.074 -0.8715 -0.041
6 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 12 33.33 28.25 83.33% 0.056 0.0254
6 Star 10 10.0 14.8 30.0% -0.081
6 Thematic 38 23.68 18.58 34.21% 0.143 0.2455 -0.007
6 Two Centers (Default) 28 10.71 20.11 50.0% 0.009 0.5736 -0.427
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.007
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.503

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 634 27.95 37.85% 0.059 0.3081 0.189
Aid From Lesser Spirits 539 28.2 38.59% 0.487 0.3684 -0.092
All Things Weaken 336 22.99 31.25% -0.693 -0.3561 -1.025
Attenuated Essence 53 20.06 30.19% -0.994 -0.967 0.36
Back Against the Wall 491 27.91 39.51% -0.365 -0.3639 0.426
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 59 21.92 38.98% 0.268 0.4848 0.14
Burn Brightest Before the End 30 34.77 56.67% 0.764 0.7458 -0.132
Disintegrating Ecosystem 624 22.97 28.69% -0.913 -0.5195 -0.457
Downward Spiral 832 26.23 41.83% -0.772 -0.6642 0.345
Erosion of Will 613 25.07 34.58% -0.608 -0.256 -0.195
Intensifying Exploitation 68 21.25 30.88% 0.529 0.775 -0.413
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 134 30.59 60.45% 0.447 -0.0772 0.46
Memory Fades to Dust 841 25.29 36.03% -0.968 -0.7204 -0.371
Power Corrodes the Spirit 342 24.37 35.96% 0.113 0.3351 -0.822
Promising Farmlands 625 26.13 37.44% -0.221 0.0619 -0.39
Shattered Fragments of Power 37 31.11 43.24% 0.703 0.7801 -0.287
Slow Dissolution of Will 70 20.19 25.71% 0.324 0.7209 -0.067
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 78 32.13 61.54% 0.317 -0.3783 0.753
The Border of Life and Death 18 27.33 44.44% -0.345
Thriving Communities 382 24.51 31.94% -0.187 0.1694 0.295
Thriving Crops 20 19.75 40.0% 0.122 -0.0747
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.251
Unnatural Proliferation 372 25.26 31.99% 0.034 0.1958 -0.527
Untended Land Crumbles 375 23.47 30.67% -0.191 0.0409 -0.166

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3241 42.63% 27.75 53.81% 0.023 1.0282 -0.628
B 3244 41.02% 27.55 52.99% -0.001 0.9188 -0.85
C 3317 40.92% 28.07 56.32% -0.289 0.4458 -0.617
D 3489 43.82% 27.64 56.0% -0.064 0.9143 -0.235
E 1743 38.9% 25.89 49.05% -0.29 0.5294 -0.569
F 2335 41.6% 27.67 55.72% 0.011 0.8852 -0.384
G 2280 42.01% 27.49 53.55% 0.035 0.8441 -0.76
H 2331 40.11% 27.53 53.84% -0.135 0.6801 -0.612
East 2098 45.42% 32.88 48.05% -0.938 -0.0355 -0.476
Northeast 1145 44.93% 33.46 46.72% -0.142 0.6663 -1.307
Northwest 1009 47.86% 34.05 46.28% 0.13 1.0303 -0.65
Southeast 515 41.94% 29.97 49.32% -0.598 0.2525 0.138
Southwest 431 46.05% 24.44 43.16% -0.37 1.0055 -0.681
West 1918 49.27% 31.75 46.35% -1.342 -0.3871 -0.64

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 168 0.0% 30.46 88.69% -0.054
Not Using Events or Tokens 308 49.48% 25.49 55.84% -0.522 -0.1542 0.296
Skip Initial Invader Actions 815 12.83% 44.65 84.42% 0.375 -0.2093 0.964
Start of Game Growth 1322 10.59% 40.68 83.36% 0.59 0.0758 1.144
Unlimited Undo 1612 26.84% 29.76 63.52% -0.311 -0.4201 0.751
Using Tokens but Not Events 1716 34.27% 29.99 66.96% 0.071 0.0457 0.317

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3654 13.33 0.0%
II 7254 30.1 67.12%
III 6455 34.83 66.58%
IV 0 38.67

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.685 Win Model: 0.668
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11479 47.5% 27.37 51.15%
2 3418 45.02% 29.81 55.68%
3 1350 33.71% 30.2 60.3%
4 998 33.23% 31.17 52.3%
5 28 32.0% 19.39 42.86%
6 90 18.07% 21.02 48.89%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2522
Lose: Invader deck ran out 541
Lose: Adversary condition 2065
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Win: Scenario condition 9136
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2978
Lose: Spirit destroyed 90

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)