Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 288 38.89% 30.61 -1.725 59.72% -0.33 0.1149
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 219 46.58% 30.51 -5.269 52.51% -1.031 -0.7237
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 137 62.04% 32.9 -4.329 41.61% -0.765 0.0103
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 83 62.65% 27.58 -6.663 24.1% -0.55 0.4177
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 50 78.0% 27.94 2.408 20.0% -0.34 1.0862
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 19 47.37% 21.63 -7.777 15.79% -0.411 1.0242
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 41 87.8% 29.88 0.0 7.32%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 568 40.81% 28.41 0.673 66.55% 0.076 0.3155
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 470 46.48% 31.45 -0.529 63.83% -0.111 0.0045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 405 47.15% 42.77 6.0 73.09% 0.464 0.572
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 182 58.79% 44.92 5.35 63.19% 0.038 0.2606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 130 55.38% 47.72 -2.814 63.85% -0.222 0.0669
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 65 72.31% 48.49 0.0 49.23%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 87 80.46% 36.03 -5.783 26.44% -1.076 0.4095
The Kingdom of England 0 1 644 40.9% 26.04 -1.82 54.97% -0.277 0.0513
The Kingdom of England 1 3 460 52.61% 31.6 -0.483 49.35% -0.553 -0.2498
The Kingdom of England 2 4 380 53.42% 32.78 1.397 44.74% -0.171 0.5575
The Kingdom of England 3 6 197 62.44% 32.61 -4.146 32.99% -0.765 0.4299
The Kingdom of England 4 7 154 65.36% 39.53 7.677 38.31% 0.004 1.2219
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 63.93% 44.76 -1.259 32.26% -0.673 0.999
The Kingdom of England 6 11 268 70.11% 43.78 -0.397 29.85% -0.35 1.7098
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 561 43.39% 25.81 -3.769 37.61% -1.905 -1.35
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 396 46.72% 25.66 -3.155 29.29% -1.187 -0.5055
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 451 43.24% 35.25 -2.866 34.81% -1.047 0.0548
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 228 57.89% 32.26 -1.603 19.3% -0.595 0.7962
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 198 57.07% 31.95 -1.374 14.14% -1.355 0.1114
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 214 50.93% 40.78 0.0 22.43%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 364 50.14% 35.64 -5.929 13.74% -1.364 0.0558
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 99 23.23% 19.23 0.451 45.45% 0.297 0.5433
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 76 47.37% 15.04 -1.191 17.11% -0.875 -0.2448
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 54 42.59% 25.56 1.271 37.04% -0.286 0.176
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 25 48.0% 30.12 -4.831 40.0% -0.711 -0.2457
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 34 41.18% 30.47 6.128 32.35% 0.246 1.0459
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 74 64.86% 29.08 5.322 13.51% -0.054 0.5098
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 58 77.59% 33.62 17.236 20.69% 0.203 1.1699
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 548 37.29% 27.37 -2.437 66.97% -0.409 -0.2043
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 456 47.03% 30.04 -0.475 60.53% -0.216 -0.18
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 465 54.19% 32.85 2.43 61.29% 0.143 0.3571
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 262 66.03% 39.05 -1.217 56.87% -0.582 -0.2222
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 107 75.7% 36.62 -4.419 42.06% -0.666 0.0326
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 79 64.56% 32.43 -5.933 32.91% -0.542 0.2542
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 212 76.3% 35.06 -0.923 32.08% -0.581 0.5257
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 277 33.33% 26.6 -0.593 64.62% -0.161 0.0095
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 193 46.11% 26.48 -3.7 47.15% -0.878 -0.038
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 122 52.46% 37.11 3.683 60.66% 0.352 0.5708
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 66 63.64% 32.08 -7.62 36.36% -0.955 0.1408
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 33 63.64% 25.06 -10.525 24.24% -0.777 0.1986
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 18 83.33% 35.06 -11.4 22.22% -0.427 1.2406
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 40 85.0% 39.38 4.341 20.0% -0.891 0.7769

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7751 48.04 28.69 56.96% 0.326 0.3563 0.19
1 Thematic 1872 54.56 32.16 45.03% -0.474 -0.0417 0.264
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.116
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1567 46.18 31.32 58.9% 0.448 0.3989 0.5
2 Coastline 298 44.37 30.37 61.74% 0.918 0.8175 0.788
2 Fragment 36 58.33 31.03 61.11% 0.746 0.333 -0.103
2 Heart 39 56.41 29.49 41.03% -0.394
2 Opposite Shores 390 40.21 29.76 62.82% -0.579 -0.7588 0.503
2 Thematic 533 51.78 31.77 48.41% -0.146 0.0405 0.27
2 Top to Top 73 46.48 31.34 61.64% 0.094 -0.1054 -0.029
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% -0.375
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 41 20.0 16.12 34.15% -0.171
3 Round (Default) 1001 36.51 32.64 63.74% -0.041 -0.3067 0.15
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.13
3 Thematic 106 46.23 34.42 52.83% -0.592 -1.0383 -0.369
4 Archipelago 5 0.0 54.6 100.0% 0.248 -0.3098
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.445
4 Other 23 52.17 31.74 60.87% -0.053
4 Thematic 303 33.99 45.67 65.68% -0.308 -0.1045 -0.621
4 Trapezoid (Default) 502 38.04 28.24 52.39% -1.354 -1.0135 -0.275
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 15 30.77 25.87 60.0% -0.238 -0.9596 0.11
5 Thematic 2 50.0 67.0 100.0% 0.322 0.4818
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 6 100.0 30.17 100.0%
6 Star 5 0.0 15.6 40.0%
6 Thematic 26 30.77 22.31 38.46% 0.049 0.0741 -0.047
6 Two Centers (Default) 20 15.0 23.15 55.0% -0.141 -0.0433 -0.416
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.594

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 587 28.25 37.99% -0.642 -0.5029 -0.026
Aid From Lesser Spirits 490 28.63 38.98% -0.428 -0.4866 -0.228
All Things Weaken 300 23.75 33.33% -0.371 -0.016 -1.069
Attenuated Essence 34 23.56 38.24% -0.43 -0.3191 0.531
Back Against the Wall 450 28.47 39.78% 0.746 0.8227 0.271
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 24 16.88 37.5% 0.779 0.9897 -0.306
Burn Brightest Before the End 11 37.18 54.55% 0.68 0.8006 0.124
Disintegrating Ecosystem 562 23.37 28.29% -0.55 -0.1816 -0.82
Downward Spiral 735 27.3 43.13% 0.504 0.7006 0.098
Erosion of Will 560 25.81 35.54% 0.195 0.4623 -0.307
Intensifying Exploitation 33 20.03 24.24% 0.634 0.9042 -0.472
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 112 31.72 58.93% -0.492 -1.0026 0.331
Memory Fades to Dust 765 25.92 36.47% -0.155 0.157 -0.574
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 24.6 35.43% 0.178 0.4728 -0.99
Promising Farmlands 573 26.76 38.57% -0.355 -0.019 -0.587
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 28.67 53.33% 0.604 0.713 -0.09
Slow Dissolution of Will 37 20.51 32.43% -0.444 -0.0435 0.06
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 32.79 60.61% -0.144 -0.7568 0.705
The Border of Life and Death 7 27.0 28.57% 1.209 0.9168 -0.354
Thriving Communities 332 25.81 32.53% -0.819 -0.4864 0.137
Thriving Crops 8 22.38 37.5% 0.435 0.3484
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.445
Unnatural Proliferation 330 26.09 32.42% -0.469 -0.3211 -0.642
Untended Land Crumbles 324 24.19 29.94% -0.166 0.1407 -0.381

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2719 44.18% 29.76 57.41% -0.409 0.4956 -0.616
B 2717 43.37% 29.68 57.01% -0.368 0.4605 -0.795
C 2793 43.12% 30.22 60.29% 0.037 0.7169 -0.52
D 2919 46.25% 29.82 60.09% -0.01 0.8431 -0.183
E 1405 40.92% 27.71 51.32% -0.298 0.4036 -0.575
F 1909 44.21% 30.06 60.08% -0.331 0.4507 -0.323
G 1874 44.26% 30.15 58.16% -0.468 0.3039 -0.618
H 1921 42.9% 29.95 57.83% -1.161 -0.3922 -0.589
East 1841 47.42% 34.93 50.68% -0.244 0.618 -0.55
Northeast 1010 47.08% 35.56 49.31% -0.479 0.2673 -1.247
Northwest 885 50.74% 35.65 47.46% -0.279 0.5543 -0.694
Southeast 437 44.62% 32.8 53.78% -0.281 0.4948 0.124
Southwest 353 50.85% 27.99 48.73% -0.448 0.8717 -0.663
West 1659 52.02% 33.95 48.76% -0.142 0.8642 -0.545

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 163 0.0% 31.1 90.8% 0.087 0.9183 -0.124
Not Using Events or Tokens 277 52.71% 27.18 59.57% -0.586 -0.1453 0.39
Skip Initial Invader Actions 751 12.96% 46.08 87.62% 0.423 -0.1387 1.042
Start of Game Growth 1159 10.39% 43.53 89.3% 0.069 -0.4695 1.22
Unlimited Undo 1344 29.11% 32.43 69.2% -0.598 -0.5572 0.838
Using Tokens but Not Events 1519 34.84% 31.16 69.12% -0.339 -0.3622 0.511

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2499 16.23 0.0%
II 6444 30.54 67.75%
III 5735 34.77 67.2%
IV 0 38.37

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.647 Win Model: 0.553
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9724 49.31% 29.21 54.21%
2 2917 47.24% 31.46 58.11%
3 1128 34.73% 32.59 64.36%
4 830 36.4% 35.26 58.55%
5 20 35.29% 20.1 50.0%
6 59 26.92% 23.54 54.24%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1275
Lose: Invader deck ran out 486
Lose: Adversary condition 1918
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8191
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2699
Lose: Spirit destroyed 80

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)