Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 206 43.69% 33.36 -2.967 64.08% -0.866 -0.3143
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 159 51.57% 36.3 2.081 62.26% -0.64 0.238
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 104 67.31% 39.12 0.0 50.96%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 50 68.0% 35.02 -3.719 34.0% -0.783 0.748
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 27 88.89% 35.85 0.0 25.93%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 0.0 22.22%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 91.43% 32.31 0.0 8.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 438 43.71% 31.04 -0.452 72.83% -0.066 0.1785
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 366 49.04% 34.16 3.222 69.95% 0.441 0.3143
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 332 45.15% 45.39 7.75 79.22% 0.462 0.5784
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 151 62.25% 49.27 13.574 70.2% 0.88 1.2539
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 100 63.0% 51.22 12.227 67.0% 0.428 0.8943
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 55 76.36% 49.65 9.829 49.09% -0.018 0.9672
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 57 91.23% 42.82 -0.047 33.33% -0.85 0.7257
The Kingdom of England 0 1 503 44.42% 28.38 0.125 59.44% 0.133 0.6489
The Kingdom of England 1 3 345 52.17% 35.17 1.871 58.55% -0.247 0.3621
The Kingdom of England 2 4 324 54.63% 35.1 5.263 48.77% -0.085 1.0421
The Kingdom of England 3 6 154 66.88% 37.66 -2.27 39.61% -0.821 0.9222
The Kingdom of England 4 7 129 67.97% 41.36 16.356 41.09% 0.662 2.2407
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 61.82% 46.89 20.144 33.93% 0.243 1.9806
The Kingdom of England 6 11 237 71.55% 45.68 10.002 31.22% -0.357 1.9421
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 460 46.09% 28.01 -1.295 41.3% -1.318 -0.4155
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 302 50.33% 28.56 2.431 33.11% -0.163 0.7276
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 396 44.19% 36.99 -4.608 36.87% -1.117 1.2857
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 182 59.89% 34.61 2.371 21.43% -0.108 2.2766
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 165 60.0% 34.72 -1.141 15.15% -1.535 0.9406
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 204 51.47% 41.52 -4.066 22.55% -0.747 1.3311
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 261 51.92% 40.9 2.824 17.24% -0.866 1.501
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 9 55.56% 32.22 0.354 88.89% 0.992 0.8679
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 7 42.86% 30.71 0.515 42.86% -0.774 0.0704
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 5 40.0% 33.8 2.31 40.0% -0.69 0.1385
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 50.0% 42.5 7.071 50.0% -0.432 0.4379
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 40.0% 40.4 6.534 40.0% -0.483 0.7527
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 2 100.0% 64.0 15.826 100.0% 0.457 1.8878
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 25.0 -0.708 0.0% -0.361 1.3374
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 426 43.9% 30.59 -2.248 74.41% -0.351 -0.1843
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 364 50.96% 32.58 1.777 66.48% 0.21 -0.0131
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 381 55.38% 35.44 1.375 65.09% 0.051 0.5044
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 225 66.22% 40.56 0.341 59.56% -0.557 -0.2472
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 92 77.17% 39.0 0.0 44.57%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 60 78.33% 41.13 13.477 41.67% 0.475 1.4559
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 144 85.31% 39.69 1.939 36.81% -1.063 0.1287
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 182 37.57% 31.33 1.005 77.47% 0.281 0.225
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 112 52.68% 35.21 2.569 63.39% -0.174 0.5998
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 93 58.06% 41.2 3.116 65.59% 0.044 0.7546
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 44 68.18% 39.66 -7.047 47.73% -0.534 0.8049
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 35.73 -4.892 33.33% -0.417 0.9684
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 9 88.89% 33.56 0.0 11.11%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 85.71% 42.9 2.548 19.05% -0.491 1.5277

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5870 50.33 31.26 62.04% 0.214 1.2304 -0.05
1 Thematic 1560 58.3 35.36 49.04% 0.046 1.2191 0.224
2 Archipelago 5 100.0 33.2 40.0% -0.174
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1196 48.82 34.22 63.71% -0.109 0.642 0.339
2 Coastline 222 45.45 32.92 67.57% 0.577 1.1796 0.836
2 Fragment 24 58.33 31.04 58.33% 0.328 0.7758 -0.256
2 Heart 28 46.43 31.39 46.43% -0.667
2 Opposite Shores 297 44.48 32.25 67.68% -0.315 0.6768 0.067
2 Thematic 411 56.45 35.32 52.55% -0.285 0.414 0.42
2 Top to Top 52 52.0 35.98 69.23% -0.093 0.417 0.145
3 Archipelago 7 57.14 39.86 28.57% -0.506
3 Coastline 9 22.22 32.78 77.78% 0.235 -0.5479
3 Other 23 31.82 28.74 60.87% -0.192
3 Round (Default) 778 34.5 35.16 70.57% 0.36 0.955 -0.458
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.197
3 Thematic 85 49.41 37.24 56.47% -0.387 -0.4242 -0.093
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 61.0 100.0%
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.313
4 Other 20 45.0 32.05 65.0% 0.091
4 Thematic 269 32.34 47.27 67.29% -0.272 0.2572 -0.634
4 Trapezoid (Default) 342 43.33 34.86 62.87% -0.716 -0.7429 0.059
5 Other 5 75.0 46.8 80.0% -0.398 -0.23 0.203
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Coastline 2 0.0 29.0 100.0% 0.031 -0.5584
6 Other 4 100.0 30.5 100.0%
6 Star 1 0.0 39.0 100.0% 0.185 0.9688
6 Thematic 4 25.0 33.0 50.0% -0.075 -0.3539
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 0.0 43.25 100.0% 0.032 -0.0621

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 490 29.32 38.98% -1.022 0.8812 -0.267
Aid From Lesser Spirits 421 29.38 40.86% -1.253 0.4768 -0.291
All Things Weaken 226 24.84 34.96% -1.002 0.9836 -1.208
Back Against the Wall 385 28.31 38.7% -0.486 1.3309 -0.067
Disintegrating Ecosystem 459 24.21 29.85% -0.115 1.9354 -1.163
Downward Spiral 620 27.99 43.55% -1.664 0.3287 -0.125
Erosion of Will 477 26.4 35.64% -1.086 0.9972 -0.579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 79 33.37 63.29% 0.25
Memory Fades to Dust 643 27.0 37.79% -1.743 0.3416 -0.723
Power Corrodes the Spirit 226 24.77 36.28% -1.571 0.3672 -1.207
Promising Farmlands 487 27.04 39.01% -1.92 0.126 -1.275
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 43 37.65 65.12% -0.092
Thriving Communities 257 27.09 35.02% -1.433 0.5506 0.09
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.696
Unnatural Proliferation 263 26.64 34.6% -1.805 0.16 -0.455
Untended Land Crumbles 249 23.89 28.92% -1.072 0.9207 -0.722

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1993 46.03% 32.74 63.72% -0.028 0.7689 -0.329
B 2019 45.9% 32.93 63.99% -0.3 0.4438 -0.252
C 2121 44.83% 33.04 65.96% 0.238 0.8064 -0.182
D 2260 48.56% 32.51 64.73% 0.277 1.0726 0.238
E 934 45.06% 32.57 59.21% 0.177 0.8239 -0.335
F 1453 46.82% 33.05 65.18% -0.001 0.7234 0.105
G 1383 45.63% 34.01 65.29% -0.715 0.0162 0.034
H 1430 44.01% 33.6 65.1% -0.241 0.4718 -0.268
East 1478 49.86% 38.5 55.01% -0.502 0.2664 -0.397
Northeast 816 49.45% 38.82 52.57% -0.232 0.6284 -0.97
Northwest 753 53.26% 38.08 49.54% -0.622 0.4551 -0.384
Southeast 303 47.52% 39.22 65.02% -1.163 -0.457 0.778
Southwest 244 55.97% 33.36 57.79% -0.694 0.4317 -0.055
West 1380 55.16% 36.98 52.03% -0.009 0.9445 -0.389

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 145 0.0% 32.17 95.17% 0.065 2.1941 0.13
Not Using Events or Tokens 222 57.97% 29.64 64.41% 0.215 0.3902 0.383
Skip Initial Invader Actions 662 11.76% 47.15 90.48% 0.488 0.3452 0.771
Start of Game Growth 1023 9.25% 44.87 92.77% 0.807 0.0466 0.878
Unlimited Undo 1028 31.61% 36.24 78.4% -0.152 -0.7563 0.973
Using Tokens but Not Events 1195 34.55% 33.9 75.15% 0.211 0.0543 0.834

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1210 22.56 0.0%
II 5261 30.98 69.07%
III 4765 34.53 67.72%
IV 0 37.77

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.05 Win Model: 0.126
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7461 52.15% 32.1 59.13%
2 2224 49.18% 34.05 62.63%
3 900 35.75% 35.22 69.44%
4 633 38.06% 40.51 65.72%
5 3 100.0% 35.33 66.67%
6 15 25.0% 34.93 86.67%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 412
Lose: Adversary condition 1634
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Win: Scenario condition 6841
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2265
Lose: Spirit destroyed 64

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)