Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 122 42.62% 33.94 0.681 67.21% -0.226 0.0545
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 115 53.04% 37.57 2.609 65.22% -0.059 0.3142
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 74 58.11% 41.0 4.318 56.76% -0.796 0.0516
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 24 45.83% 39.92 4.204 50.0% -1.052 0.1857
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 85.0% 35.3 3.098 25.0% -1.126 0.3965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.153 22.22% -1.264 0.7644
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 27 96.3% 32.56 1.987 11.11% -1.782 0.3104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 427 44.94% 31.54 -0.296 73.3% 0.184 0.2311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 396 52.03% 33.03 0.887 66.92% 0.004 -0.0247
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 347 45.51% 45.48 6.371 79.83% 0.483 0.4804
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 156 62.58% 47.44 7.824 64.74% -0.087 0.1973
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 112 70.54% 49.07 8.725 61.61% -0.069 0.3093
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 45 75.56% 54.91 11.995 60.0% -0.099 0.7343
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 61 86.89% 45.62 6.993 37.7% -1.171 0.078
The Kingdom of England 0 1 492 47.86% 28.18 -1.868 60.37% -0.583 -0.2499
The Kingdom of England 1 3 302 52.17% 36.1 2.064 60.6% -0.461 0.0221
The Kingdom of England 2 4 290 51.04% 36.66 2.094 51.72% -1.076 -0.1192
The Kingdom of England 3 6 147 69.18% 37.98 3.236 39.46% -1.354 0.223
The Kingdom of England 4 7 125 69.35% 39.53 4.48 36.8% -1.345 0.1769
The Kingdom of England 5 9 56 63.64% 46.27 7.033 35.71% -1.527 0.5363
The Kingdom of England 6 11 224 73.97% 46.45 8.06 33.48% -1.695 0.5601
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 487 48.25% 27.56 -2.033 39.01% -1.7 -1.1755
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 289 58.13% 27.07 -2.291 28.72% -2.142 -1.2504
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 406 39.16% 38.98 1.747 39.66% -2.583 -0.4552
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 169 59.17% 34.59 1.703 21.89% -2.682 -0.4953
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 198 57.58% 35.02 1.563 15.66% -2.95 -0.8046
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 200 57.5% 39.78 3.667 21.5% -2.804 -0.9851
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 288 49.83% 40.07 4.388 16.32% -3.2 -1.065
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 389 43.96% 30.88 -0.57 75.32% 0.295 0.3801
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 350 48.7% 34.25 1.296 71.71% 0.136 0.1456
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 370 55.14% 35.6 2.073 65.95% -0.08 0.1371
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 256 62.5% 42.59 5.692 65.23% -0.038 0.2469
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 93 81.72% 38.72 4.086 44.09% -0.514 0.2632
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 74 78.38% 42.76 5.106 44.59% -0.824 0.3413
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 129 82.81% 40.22 4.75 38.76% -1.078 0.0544
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 74 49.32% 30.03 -1.011 68.92% 0.231 0.1136
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 58 51.72% 36.43 1.726 67.24% -0.136 0.5522
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 53.45% 40.86 3.32 63.79% -0.517 -0.0815
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 72.41% 36.59 3.037 41.38% -1.025 0.2496
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 5 80.0% 40.2 6.263 40.0% -0.458 0.6998
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.564 12.5% -1.354 0.6819
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 9 88.89% 44.89 7.502 22.22% -0.974 0.9753

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5364 51.95 31.06 -0.902 61.67% 0.528 0.883
1 Thematic 1586 55.95 36.18 1.053 50.44% 0.29 0.7871
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1182 49.74 33.38 0.242 62.77% 0.319 0.5083
2 Coastline 193 50.79 31.81 -0.411 64.25% 0.192 0.3268
2 Fragment 25 48.0 30.04 -1.724 60.0% -0.267 0.1592
2 Heart 29 62.07 31.9 -1.395 34.48% -0.7 -0.4094
2 Opposite Shores 313 40.85 33.21 0.126 71.25% 0.541 0.7671
2 Thematic 418 55.5 35.79 0.174 51.2% 0.093 0.1376
2 Top to Top 62 51.67 34.71 1.033 69.35% 0.585 0.7011
3 Coastline 5 25.0 32.4 0.283 80.0% 0.189 0.1509
3 Other 23 43.48 29.74 -2.062 60.87% -0.443 -0.0415
3 Round (Default) 736 38.11 34.2 0.052 67.39% 0.029 0.0601
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.147 60.0% -0.497 -0.7496
3 Thematic 106 54.72 37.43 -0.389 50.94% -0.048 -0.3866
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.317 100.0% 0.754 0.8764
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.99 100.0% 0.008 0.0874
4 Other 25 44.0 31.0 -1.706 64.0% -0.678 -0.5975
4 Thematic 315 33.65 48.61 2.417 62.22% -0.215 -1.2929
4 Trapezoid (Default) 322 38.11 36.01 0.189 64.29% -0.682 -0.7147
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.066 100.0% 0.041 -0.1758

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 538 28.35 -3.342 37.55% -2.154 -0.0862
Aid From Lesser Spirits 445 29.97 -2.574 40.45% -1.909 0.0079
All Things Weaken 141 24.6 -5.06 31.91% -2.321 -0.161
Back Against the Wall 377 28.44 -3.233 37.14% -2.048 0.0445
Disintegrating Ecosystem 467 24.94 -5.107 31.91% -2.387 -0.1656
Downward Spiral 700 27.62 -3.541 43.57% -1.89 0.1243
Erosion of Will 472 27.36 -3.842 36.02% -2.278 -0.0664
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 32.93 -0.772 63.41% -0.758 -0.0457
Memory Fades to Dust 710 26.16 -4.13 37.89% -2.152 0.0638
Power Corrodes the Spirit 134 25.64 -4.41 36.57% -2.0 0.0194
Promising Farmlands 494 27.7 -3.76 40.49% -1.99 0.2245
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 25 38.2 1.244 60.0% -0.71 -0.2933
Thriving Communities 152 28.9 -2.932 38.82% -1.948 0.1586
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.456 33.54% -2.259 -0.0429
Unnatural Proliferation 145 27.53 -3.424 35.86% -2.134 -0.0533
Untended Land Crumbles 146 23.58 -5.537 26.71% -2.54 -0.4451

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2275 46.86% 32.38 -0.311 63.16% -0.161 -1.2343
B 2261 47.39% 32.7 -0.233 63.56% -0.199 -1.363
C 2315 45.99% 32.5 -0.175 64.92% -0.128 -1.5247
D 2522 49.49% 31.87 -0.464 64.0% -0.14 -1.2977
E 516 43.95% 32.49 -0.624 55.81% -0.569 -1.826
F 990 46.98% 33.32 -0.085 64.34% -0.086 -1.3121
G 889 45.41% 34.86 0.557 65.47% -0.06 -1.2726
H 964 45.08% 34.22 0.273 63.9% -0.116 -1.3377
East 942 45.59% 41.79 2.179 57.64% -0.08 -1.0159
Northeast 875 47.03% 40.19 1.065 52.11% -0.595 -1.4648
Northwest 871 50.17% 39.9 1.055 50.86% -0.356 -1.3015
Southeast 198 47.98% 40.17 2.042 67.17% 0.09 -0.8936
Southwest 167 53.61% 34.83 -1.224 61.08% -0.177 -0.8023
West 930 51.35% 39.61 0.731 52.69% -0.436 -1.1017

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 139 0.0% 32.35 -3.476 89.21% -0.958 1.0806
Not Using Events or Tokens 277 65.52% 27.95 -1.571 56.68% -0.262 -0.0419
Skip Initial Invader Actions 637 13.3% 47.53 4.515 89.01% -0.346 -1.0521
Start of Game Growth 911 10.52% 47.13 4.614 91.22% 2.034 1.5752
Unlimited Undo 797 35.27% 36.52 -0.052 77.54% 0.292 -0.1102
Using Tokens but Not Events 1145 38.94% 33.47 -0.318 72.49% -0.086 -0.1319

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1233 22.34 0.0%
II 5074 30.71 68.86%
III 4415 34.23 67.63%
IV 0 37.48

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.315 Win Model: 0.371
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 6958 52.91% 32.22 59.07%
2 2219 49.7% 33.66 61.78%
3 882 40.48% 34.43 65.19%
4 663 35.8% 42.08 63.95%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 377
Lose: Adversary condition 1613
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Win: Scenario condition 6456
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2185
Lose: Spirit destroyed 67

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)