Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 232 42.24% 33.23 4.238 63.79% 0.538 0.7482
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 175 50.29% 35.05 -2.794 59.43% -0.875 -0.4402
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 115 66.09% 37.31 -4.585 47.83% -1.374 -0.6418
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 68 70.59% 31.29 0.353 26.47% -0.617 0.4416
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 33 90.91% 34.76 -13.12 24.24% -0.536 0.7578
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 13 69.23% 31.62 -7.768 23.08% -0.704 0.8902
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 91.43% 32.31 0.0 8.57%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 492 42.45% 30.36 0.312 70.93% 0.197 0.2949
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 401 48.0% 33.84 0.623 69.08% -0.193 -0.2849
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 367 47.4% 43.92 1.374 74.93% -0.407 -0.4704
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 158 60.76% 48.58 2.934 68.99% -0.617 -0.3559
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 108 61.11% 50.34 8.674 66.67% 0.492 0.5546
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 59 74.58% 48.98 -2.963 49.15% -0.069 0.3746
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 69 88.41% 42.59 8.355 33.33% -0.386 0.8964
The Kingdom of England 0 1 548 42.96% 28.18 2.558 59.49% 0.738 0.9138
The Kingdom of England 1 3 401 56.11% 33.87 -1.249 52.87% 0.056 0.2707
The Kingdom of England 2 4 343 54.81% 34.76 0.02 48.1% -0.446 0.3078
The Kingdom of England 3 6 160 66.88% 37.14 -0.926 38.75% -0.412 0.7493
The Kingdom of England 4 7 138 67.88% 41.94 0.0 41.3%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 57 62.5% 47.33 0.0 35.09%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 245 72.08% 45.28 4.726 30.61% -0.456 1.5632
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 495 45.25% 27.65 -2.86 40.81% -0.924 -0.5702
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 345 49.28% 28.09 0.873 32.46% -0.899 0.0705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 415 44.82% 36.65 3.219 36.14% -0.264 0.8241
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 210 59.05% 33.84 -2.271 20.0% -1.173 0.2146
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 175 60.0% 34.78 1.673 15.43% -0.289 1.1445
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 207 51.69% 41.62 3.922 22.71% -0.238 0.7345
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 276 52.36% 40.8 8.275 17.03% -1.044 0.3117
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 37 37.84% 27.35 -4.827 64.86% -0.794 -0.8803
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 36 61.11% 22.53 -2.457 27.78% -0.767 -0.3335
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 19 47.37% 36.26 8.748 52.63% 0.382 0.7866
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 11 54.55% 43.55 17.665 54.55% 0.392 0.7236
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 14 28.57% 30.79 2.64 28.57% -0.239 0.3252
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 11 54.55% 45.91 -1.829 54.55% -0.361 0.3787
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 37 86.49% 37.59 3.764 18.92% -1.379 -0.102
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 464 41.38% 29.92 -1.898 73.06% -0.14 0.0096
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 402 50.37% 31.92 -1.479 63.93% -0.279 -0.2891
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 408 55.88% 34.87 -1.682 64.46% -0.243 -0.0107
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 240 65.83% 40.45 -1.619 59.17% -0.257 0.0886
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 98 77.55% 38.71 2.395 43.88% -0.675 -0.0578
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 61 77.05% 40.46 -7.736 40.98% -0.277 0.6709
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 167 83.73% 39.16 1.992 35.33% -0.72 0.0848
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 210 36.84% 30.73 1.635 76.19% 0.614 0.6562
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 133 49.62% 34.08 -2.25 62.41% -0.285 0.3185
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 103 57.28% 39.5 2.474 63.11% 0.001 0.294
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 50 68.0% 38.34 -5.665 46.0% -0.581 0.5244
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 19 78.95% 36.26 3.772 36.84% -0.087 0.9433
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 11 90.91% 35.91 0.0 18.18%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 26 84.62% 42.65 3.91 19.23% -0.56 1.3966

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 6493 49.95 30.79 61.07% 0.508 0.7175 0.223
1 Thematic 1666 57.11 34.58 48.14% -0.841 -0.2424 0.351
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.203 0.1537 -0.138
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1336 48.38 33.65 62.87% 0.661 0.8207 0.37
2 Coastline 258 44.31 31.67 64.73% 0.316 0.3767 0.694
2 Fragment 25 56.0 32.08 60.0% -0.236
2 Heart 36 55.56 31.39 44.44% 0.563 0.3249 -0.498
2 Opposite Shores 316 43.69 32.78 68.99% 0.685 0.8182 0.288
2 Thematic 453 55.63 34.52 51.88% 0.133 0.7689 0.353
2 Top to Top 61 49.15 35.39 68.85% -0.301 -0.261 0.25
3 Archipelago 8 62.5 36.0 25.0% -0.451
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 40 20.51 16.52 35.0% -1.346 -1.2362 -0.206
3 Round (Default) 890 37.02 33.89 66.52% 0.116 0.0746 -0.351
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.235
3 Thematic 93 48.39 36.01 55.91% -0.0 0.0361 -0.349
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 52.5 100.0%
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.312
4 Other 21 47.62 32.0 61.9% 0.416 -0.4338 -0.138
4 Thematic 283 34.28 46.81 66.78% 0.354 0.3365 -0.843
4 Trapezoid (Default) 373 44.04 33.88 62.2% -0.604 -0.7906 -0.201
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 7 50.0 33.43 57.14% -0.922 -1.4307 0.068
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 5 100.0 30.8 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 39.0 100.0%
6 Thematic 9 44.44 35.44 44.44% -0.423 -0.0241 0.253
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 15.38 35.62 84.62% 0.566 0.6097

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 525 29.31 39.62% 0.259 0.5301 -0.135
Aid From Lesser Spirits 453 28.98 39.74% -0.905 -0.8663 -0.352
All Things Weaken 264 24.95 34.09% -0.561 -0.1007 -1.152
Attenuated Essence 13 22.54 38.46% -0.104 0.102 0.51
Back Against the Wall 412 28.53 39.56% -0.079 0.083 -0.046
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 4 15.25 50.0% 0.17 0.5846
Burn Brightest Before the End 4 26.0 25.0% -0.203 0.1015 -0.495
Disintegrating Ecosystem 496 23.98 28.83% -0.496 0.0306 -1.195
Downward Spiral 673 27.77 43.54% -0.379 -0.0265 -0.09
Erosion of Will 511 26.02 35.23% -0.712 -0.3034 -0.566
Intensifying Exploitation 5 22.4 20.0% -0.503 -0.1158 -0.257
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 93 33.61 62.37% 0.436 -0.0895 0.152
Memory Fades to Dust 690 26.87 37.68% -0.19 0.2916 -0.658
Power Corrodes the Spirit 268 24.7 35.07% -0.333 -0.0289 -1.217
Promising Farmlands 526 27.15 38.59% 0.621 1.2069 -1.017
Shattered Fragments of Power 4 28.75 75.0% 0.405 0.5837
Slow Dissolution of Will 9 24.89 33.33% -0.011 0.5227 0.33
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 51 38.22 66.67% 0.725 0.0476 0.531
Thriving Communities 286 26.91 34.62% -0.504 -0.0111 0.024
Thriving Crops 2 10.0 0.0% -0.353 -0.2647
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.617
Unnatural Proliferation 296 26.47 33.78% -1.004 -0.7072 -0.587
Untended Land Crumbles 282 24.27 29.43% -0.103 0.2545 -0.72

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2252 46.67% 31.99 61.55% -0.332 0.5083 -0.451
B 2250 44.76% 32.0 62.8% -0.395 0.384 -0.339
C 2384 44.36% 32.14 63.93% -0.221 0.4332 -0.299
D 2490 48.08% 32.0 63.86% -0.49 0.3094 0.165
E 1094 44.62% 31.56 57.59% -0.636 -0.0076 -0.44
F 1605 46.46% 32.77 65.11% 0.304 1.0234 0.031
G 1571 46.83% 32.99 62.7% -0.323 0.4188 -0.248
H 1617 45.36% 32.64 62.83% 0.028 0.6766 -0.324
East 1607 49.47% 37.63 54.08% -0.245 0.3587 -0.44
Northeast 891 49.33% 38.04 52.19% -0.42 0.4611 -1.006
Northwest 800 53.13% 37.46 49.0% -0.579 0.0942 -0.433
Southeast 345 46.96% 37.7 61.74% -0.407 0.229 0.5
Southwest 269 56.34% 32.89 56.88% 0.447 1.6113 0.094
West 1467 54.75% 36.28 51.4% -0.494 0.4698 -0.473

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 154 0.0% 31.79 94.16% -0.257 0.626 0.129
Not Using Events or Tokens 233 56.02% 28.94 63.09% -1.091 -0.7595 0.325
Skip Initial Invader Actions 701 11.94% 46.6 89.44% 0.277 -0.2584 0.98
Start of Game Growth 1088 9.3% 44.23 91.54% -0.279 -0.6096 1.087
Unlimited Undo 1139 31.16% 35.65 76.82% -0.15 -0.1721 0.919
Using Tokens but Not Events 1351 35.58% 33.07 73.21% 0.452 0.3981 0.575

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1523 21.03 0.0%
II 5750 31.04 68.63%
III 5161 34.74 67.95%
IV 0 38.02

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.009 Win Model: 0.331
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 8209 51.51% 31.51 58.17%
2 2508 49.4% 33.43 61.16%
3 997 35.08% 33.92 67.5%
4 680 39.43% 39.65 65.0%
5 6 50.0% 23.33 50.0%
6 34 32.14% 33.94 76.47%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 224
Lose: Invader deck ran out 442
Lose: Adversary condition 1779
Win: Sacrifice victory 24
Win: Scenario condition 7429
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2465
Lose: Spirit destroyed 71

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)