Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 274 39.78% 31.46 4.886 61.31% 0.984 1.3638
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 212 48.11% 31.52 -0.951 54.25% -0.334 -0.0564
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 135 62.22% 33.25 -5.122 42.22% -0.915 -0.1554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 82 63.41% 27.91 0.984 24.39% -0.252 0.8671
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 47 80.85% 27.87 -3.339 19.15% -0.876 0.4804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 18 50.0% 22.83 -9.047 16.67% -0.373 0.9215
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 41 87.8% 29.88 -6.408 7.32% -0.552 1.3962
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 553 41.2% 28.74 -0.899 67.27% -0.338 -0.1315
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 455 47.14% 32.07 -0.317 65.05% -0.224 -0.2142
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 393 47.06% 43.06 3.119 73.54% -0.168 -0.1411
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 177 59.32% 45.34 -1.363 63.84% -0.507 -0.2196
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 128 55.47% 48.02 -1.47 64.06% -0.585 -0.2876
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 65 72.31% 48.49 26.661 49.23% 1.085 1.6876
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 80 86.25% 38.85 0.0 28.75%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 626 40.96% 26.46 0.963 55.75% -0.097 0.2266
The Kingdom of England 1 3 443 53.05% 32.36 2.302 50.34% -0.665 -0.3704
The Kingdom of England 2 4 373 53.89% 33.01 -2.776 45.04% -1.024 -0.2999
The Kingdom of England 3 6 192 63.54% 33.15 -4.483 33.33% -1.376 -0.1406
The Kingdom of England 4 7 151 66.0% 39.75 -1.318 38.41% -0.324 0.8567
The Kingdom of England 5 9 62 63.93% 44.76 -3.69 32.26% -0.865 0.709
The Kingdom of England 6 11 265 70.27% 43.96 6.805 29.81% -0.016 1.9258
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 546 43.85% 26.17 -3.948 38.64% -1.335 -0.8538
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 385 47.01% 26.21 -2.917 30.13% -1.321 -0.4844
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 449 43.21% 35.34 -1.395 34.97% -1.097 -0.0665
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 223 58.74% 32.57 -4.824 19.28% -1.04 0.3651
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 191 58.12% 32.59 -5.09 14.66% -1.164 0.2568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 214 50.93% 40.78 -6.893 22.43% -0.596 0.2506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 357 51.12% 36.34 -5.7 14.01% -1.782 -0.3956
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 84 26.19% 19.88 2.814 46.43% 0.438 0.7239
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 63 47.62% 14.13 -5.351 15.87% -1.22 -0.7407
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 46 45.65% 26.26 2.585 36.96% 0.205 0.4827
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 23 47.83% 31.57 -3.717 43.48% -0.735 -0.3237
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 29 44.83% 28.69 0.065 27.59% -0.81 0.0761
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 72 63.89% 29.0 -3.638 12.5% -1.177 -0.3676
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 54 75.93% 31.22 31.487 16.67% 0.615 1.6357
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 535 38.2% 27.61 -1.993 67.48% -0.281 -0.1318
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 446 47.64% 30.33 -1.689 60.99% -0.656 -0.5285
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 449 54.34% 33.22 2.199 61.92% 0.036 0.2339
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 256 65.63% 39.57 3.576 57.81% -0.213 0.2045
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 105 76.19% 37.31 -2.849 42.86% -0.425 0.2796
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 77 66.23% 33.27 -5.444 33.77% -0.949 -0.0146
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 207 76.21% 34.94 -4.568 31.4% -1.427 -0.4362
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 254 34.78% 27.61 -0.921 67.32% -0.51 -0.4115
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 178 46.63% 28.24 -4.758 50.56% -0.777 0.1714
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 118 53.39% 37.15 0.946 60.17% -0.116 0.1651
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 64 65.63% 33.08 -8.218 37.5% -0.958 0.1525
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 31 67.74% 26.68 -2.008 25.81% -0.711 0.2984
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 17 88.24% 37.12 -7.665 23.53% -0.32 1.3463
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 34 82.35% 34.85 -1.334 14.71% -0.354 1.4548

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 7538 48.43 29.05 57.61% 0.332 0.5227 0.185
1 Thematic 1834 55.14 32.59 45.58% -0.362 0.2834 0.285
2 Archipelago 7 71.43 28.57 42.86% -0.115
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1514 46.54 31.67 59.38% -0.133 -0.1371 0.465
2 Coastline 292 43.9 30.48 61.64% -0.007 0.0488 0.773
2 Fragment 35 60.0 31.91 62.86% 0.198 -0.0682 -0.129
2 Heart 39 56.41 29.49 41.03% -0.391
2 Opposite Shores 385 40.48 29.93 63.12% -0.294 -0.2794 0.498
2 Thematic 522 52.49 31.94 48.66% -0.202 -0.0054 0.279
2 Top to Top 71 47.83 31.85 61.97% 0.126 0.028 -0.078
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% 0.259 -0.1881 -0.4
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 41 20.0 16.12 34.15% -0.178
3 Round (Default) 971 35.88 32.36 63.95% -0.414 -0.7499 0.046
3 Sunrise 9 44.44 34.89 55.56% -0.146
3 Thematic 105 46.67 34.5 53.33% -0.108 -0.3925 -0.385
4 Archipelago 4 0.0 52.0 100.0% 0.39 0.2334
4 Coastline 6 20.0 43.83 100.0% 0.448
4 Other 23 52.17 31.74 60.87% 0.265 -1.0644 -0.081
4 Thematic 292 34.25 46.13 66.1% -0.26 -0.3395 -0.608
4 Trapezoid (Default) 483 38.43 29.02 54.24% -0.776 -0.9332 -0.141
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 13 27.27 29.85 69.23% 0.496 -0.5785 0.291
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 1 100.0 17.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 6 100.0 30.17 100.0%
6 Star 5 0.0 15.6 40.0%
6 Thematic 21 38.1 24.24 38.1% -0.048
6 Two Centers (Default) 18 11.11 25.72 61.11% -0.285 -0.6198 -0.448
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.59

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 577 28.4 38.13% -0.897 -0.7671 -0.039
Aid From Lesser Spirits 483 28.73 39.13% 0.402 0.2837 -0.252
All Things Weaken 292 23.97 33.56% -0.236 0.0712 -1.041
Attenuated Essence 32 24.44 40.63% 0.159 0.1916 0.508
Back Against the Wall 445 28.39 39.55% 0.235 0.2645 0.244
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 23 15.57 34.78% 0.681 0.8668 -0.343
Burn Brightest Before the End 7 32.71 42.86% 0.462 0.5325 -0.475
Disintegrating Ecosystem 554 23.42 28.34% -0.468 -0.0926 -0.842
Downward Spiral 723 27.11 42.74% -0.955 -0.7889 0.046
Erosion of Will 550 25.54 35.27% 0.351 0.5659 -0.423
Intensifying Exploitation 29 17.03 17.24% -0.274 -0.0328 -0.955
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 109 32.2 59.63% 0.082 -0.4995 0.311
Memory Fades to Dust 747 26.14 36.68% -0.202 0.0904 -0.576
Power Corrodes the Spirit 296 24.58 35.14% 0.044 0.2046 -1.029
Promising Farmlands 566 26.86 38.52% -0.536 -0.2397 -0.607
Shattered Fragments of Power 15 28.67 53.33% 0.582 0.6697 -0.097
Slow Dissolution of Will 32 21.97 34.38% -0.103 0.2898 0.037
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 66 32.79 60.61% 0.317 -0.3942 0.673
The Border of Life and Death 5 19.6 0.0% -0.349 -0.8289 -0.365
Thriving Communities 320 26.06 33.13% -0.816 -0.5163 0.139
Thriving Crops 7 21.86 28.57% -0.313 -0.4147
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.471
Unnatural Proliferation 324 25.94 32.41% -0.02 0.1489 -0.431
Untended Land Crumbles 317 24.45 29.97% -0.16 0.0984 -0.393

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2638 44.0% 29.87 57.88% 0.144 1.2866 -0.593
B 2636 43.43% 29.85 57.51% -0.274 0.781 -0.747
C 2722 42.98% 30.37 60.91% 0.231 1.1186 -0.452
D 2845 46.42% 30.1 60.6% 0.022 1.0764 -0.131
E 1346 41.16% 28.18 52.23% 0.017 0.9216 -0.613
F 1842 44.63% 30.5 60.97% -0.043 0.961 -0.27
G 1819 44.84% 30.56 58.82% -0.039 0.9287 -0.546
H 1872 43.49% 30.51 59.03% -0.127 0.8653 -0.525
East 1793 48.02% 35.29 51.09% -0.175 0.8137 -0.506
Northeast 982 47.5% 35.96 49.8% -0.769 0.1808 -1.232
Northwest 864 51.28% 36.0 47.69% -0.766 0.2749 -0.673
Southeast 416 46.15% 33.26 54.33% -0.297 0.6208 0.165
Southwest 334 53.45% 28.65 49.4% -0.249 1.2082 -0.624
West 1621 52.75% 34.27 49.04% 0.124 1.2306 -0.546

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 162 0.0% 30.77 90.74% -0.19 0.4736 -0.232
Not Using Events or Tokens 269 52.8% 27.79 60.97% 0.888 1.3818 0.38
Skip Initial Invader Actions 738 12.07% 45.93 87.94% 0.116 -0.5063 1.166
Start of Game Growth 1142 9.66% 43.51 89.75% 0.264 -0.1486 1.259
Unlimited Undo 1305 29.2% 32.82 70.34% 0.448 0.3532 0.78
Using Tokens but Not Events 1490 35.12% 31.45 69.8% -0.444 -0.3681 0.496

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2329 16.77 0.0%
II 6318 30.59 67.82%
III 5630 34.74 67.37%
IV 0 38.3

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.597 Win Model: 0.498
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 9463 49.78% 29.6 54.87%
2 2849 47.49% 31.65 58.27%
3 1097 34.16% 32.34 64.63%
4 799 36.77% 35.89 59.82%
5 15 25.0% 23.13 60.0%
6 54 29.79% 24.41 55.56%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1087
Lose: Invader deck ran out 476
Lose: Adversary condition 1894
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8049
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2663
Lose: Spirit destroyed 79

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)