Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 137 41.61% 33.71 0.696 66.42% -0.326 -0.0448
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 126 53.97% 36.88 2.493 63.49% -0.113 0.2768
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 84 63.1% 39.58 3.919 53.57% -0.817 0.0529
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 25 48.0% 40.6 4.641 52.0% -0.964 0.2928
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 21 85.71% 34.67 2.96 23.81% -1.124 0.4047
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 9 77.78% 37.56 3.214 22.22% -1.256 0.7701
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 29 93.1% 32.24 1.79 10.34% -1.939 0.1313
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 458 45.39% 31.45 -0.278 73.14% 0.174 0.2119
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 411 52.57% 33.09 0.968 67.64% 0.048 0.0177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 371 45.8% 45.38 6.402 79.78% 0.503 0.5079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 158 63.06% 47.36 7.832 64.56% -0.103 0.1879
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 121 69.42% 49.15 8.825 61.98% -0.074 0.2874
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 47 76.6% 53.94 11.555 57.45% -0.177 0.651
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 67 88.06% 44.73 6.739 35.82% -1.2 0.0444
The Kingdom of England 0 1 522 48.37% 28.04 -1.857 59.77% -0.6 -0.2685
The Kingdom of England 1 3 326 52.63% 35.83 2.041 59.82% -0.494 0.0067
The Kingdom of England 2 4 312 52.26% 36.38 2.082 50.96% -1.073 -0.1036
The Kingdom of England 3 6 155 68.83% 38.31 3.443 40.65% -1.31 0.2691
The Kingdom of England 4 7 135 67.16% 39.99 4.68 37.78% -1.338 0.1631
The Kingdom of England 5 9 58 63.16% 47.07 7.504 37.93% -1.41 0.6603
The Kingdom of England 6 11 231 74.34% 46.38 8.092 33.33% -1.687 0.565
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 524 47.71% 27.65 -1.961 39.31% -1.705 -1.1797
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 311 57.23% 27.51 -2.114 30.23% -2.098 -1.2044
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 437 40.5% 38.15 1.576 37.99% -2.597 -0.4679
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 184 59.78% 34.27 1.626 21.2% -2.71 -0.5239
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 205 57.07% 34.96 1.593 15.61% -2.963 -0.8208
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 213 58.22% 39.59 3.636 21.13% -2.828 -1.0053
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 295 50.34% 40.27 4.55 16.61% -3.175 -1.0595
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 427 45.2% 30.6 -0.629 74.0% 0.241 0.3299
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 367 49.45% 34.27 1.354 71.93% 0.169 0.1884
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 391 54.48% 35.68 2.172 65.98% -0.088 0.1344
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 271 63.84% 42.1 5.535 64.21% -0.071 0.2152
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 103 83.5% 38.2 3.863 42.72% -0.6 0.1672
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 76 77.63% 42.76 5.146 44.74% -0.84 0.3201
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 137 83.09% 39.92 4.675 37.96% -1.095 0.0373
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 89 48.86% 29.53 -1.212 68.54% 0.088 -0.0318
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 65 52.31% 36.72 2.076 69.23% -0.033 0.6858
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 63 57.14% 40.51 3.414 63.49% -0.401 0.0411
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 34 73.53% 36.82 3.284 41.18% -0.975 0.2754
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 75.0% 33.5 2.891 25.0% -0.934 0.1899
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 8 87.5% 33.13 1.578 12.5% -1.364 0.6827
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 12 91.67% 40.5 5.589 16.67% -1.289 0.6449

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 5780 52.11 30.93 -0.896 61.47% 0.598 0.9249
1 Thematic 1671 56.52 35.92 1.029 50.15% 0.3 0.7732
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1261 49.96 33.46 0.302 62.89% 0.403 0.6001
2 Coastline 209 53.14 31.98 -0.293 64.11% 0.334 0.485
2 Fragment 28 53.57 29.32 -2.123 53.57% -0.362 0.0424
2 Heart 32 62.5 30.88 -1.766 34.38% -0.743 -0.4304
2 Opposite Shores 335 42.38 33.02 0.056 70.45% 0.553 0.7762
2 Thematic 443 56.43 35.55 0.164 51.47% 0.042 0.0707
2 Top to Top 68 54.55 34.94 1.215 67.65% 0.729 0.8695
3 Coastline 6 20.0 32.17 0.075 83.33% 0.238 0.1905
3 Other 24 41.67 29.38 -2.283 58.33% -0.613 -0.1746
3 Round (Default) 780 37.63 34.13 0.052 67.69% 0.089 0.1473
3 Sunrise 10 40.0 35.4 -0.097 60.0% -0.438 -0.6353
3 Thematic 112 52.68 38.07 -0.029 53.57% -0.11 -0.4711
4 Coastline 6 33.33 50.83 5.387 100.0% 0.755 0.926
4 Leaf 1 0.0 29.0 -2.902 100.0% 0.008 0.0718
4 Other 28 46.43 30.11 -1.863 60.71% -0.775 -0.6437
4 Thematic 327 33.33 48.19 2.302 61.77% -0.481 -1.5412
4 Trapezoid (Default) 351 38.39 35.85 0.203 63.53% -0.636 -0.5974
5 Other 1 0.0 36.0 -0.114 100.0% 0.04 -0.1592
5 Thematic 1 0.0 79.0 11.364 100.0% 0.107 -2.8496

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 573 28.46 -3.196 38.22% -2.101 -0.0303
Aid From Lesser Spirits 477 30.08 -2.492 40.46% -1.898 0.0235
All Things Weaken 163 24.89 -4.731 34.97% -2.192 -0.0387
Back Against the Wall 407 28.3 -3.209 37.59% -2.029 0.0675
Disintegrating Ecosystem 503 24.94 -5.018 32.01% -2.362 -0.1367
Downward Spiral 735 27.64 -3.461 43.95% -1.866 0.1525
Erosion of Will 508 27.15 -3.881 35.83% -2.283 -0.0731
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 49 32.27 -1.042 61.22% -0.91 -0.2168
Memory Fades to Dust 749 26.16 -4.095 37.52% -2.14 0.0754
Power Corrodes the Spirit 149 25.33 -4.519 36.24% -2.048 -0.0309
Promising Farmlands 536 27.5 -3.734 40.49% -1.974 0.2396
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 29 37.38 1.109 62.07% -0.618 -0.1877
Thriving Communities 177 27.98 -3.28 36.72% -2.09 0.0058
Tipping Point 322 26.07 -4.411 33.54% -2.248 -0.0271
Unnatural Proliferation 168 27.61 -3.28 36.9% -2.06 0.0269
Untended Land Crumbles 171 23.55 -5.41 26.32% -2.564 -0.4682

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2426 47.12% 32.35 -0.264 63.03% -0.207 -1.308
B 2402 47.05% 32.64 -0.231 63.91% -0.247 -1.4436
C 2467 46.52% 32.42 -0.168 64.73% -0.191 -1.6196
D 2676 49.49% 31.85 -0.427 64.09% -0.182 -1.3733
E 593 45.32% 32.04 -0.726 54.47% -0.628 -1.9269
F 1083 46.92% 33.28 -0.047 63.71% -0.176 -1.4304
G 972 46.81% 34.44 0.447 64.09% -0.166 -1.4081
H 1057 45.66% 34.02 0.281 63.58% -0.155 -1.412
East 987 45.54% 41.6 2.172 58.05% -0.062 -1.022
Northeast 934 47.27% 39.95 1.075 52.14% -0.565 -1.466
Northwest 901 50.83% 39.58 0.965 50.28% -0.385 -1.3596
Southeast 213 47.89% 39.85 1.976 66.67% 0.107 -0.8969
Southwest 183 55.49% 33.79 -1.504 59.02% -0.238 -0.8378
West 967 51.14% 39.67 0.877 53.26% -0.376 -1.0753

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 145 0.0% 32.04 -3.552 89.66% -0.926 1.1229
Not Using Events or Tokens 298 65.96% 27.94 -1.516 56.38% -0.251 -0.0307
Skip Initial Invader Actions 657 13.5% 47.18 4.432 88.89% -0.375 -1.0796
Start of Game Growth 940 10.71% 46.77 4.54 91.06% 2.04 1.5883
Unlimited Undo 845 35.02% 36.42 0.006 77.51% 0.282 -0.135
Using Tokens but Not Events 1211 38.82% 33.4 -0.292 72.91% -0.05 -0.1015

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1296 22.33 0.0%
II 5411 30.75 68.38%
III 4767 34.25 67.51%
IV 0 37.47

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.314 Win Model: 0.434
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 7460 53.15% 32.04 58.89%
2 2373 50.53% 33.63 61.65%
3 933 39.76% 34.45 65.81%
4 708 35.93% 41.64 63.28%

Results

Result Completed
Lose: Invader deck ran out 411
Lose: Adversary condition 1720
Win: Sacrifice victory 26
Win: Scenario condition 6892
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2352
Lose: Spirit destroyed 73

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)