Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 23 4.35% 18.39 1.14 43.48% 0.161 0.153
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 6 0.0% 28.33 5.331 50.0% 0.227 -0.1515
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 5 60.0% 33.2 9.134 40.0% 0.563 0.5442
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 4 50.0% 30.5 7.878 50.0% 0.443 0.3329
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 66.67% 16.33 -0.575 0.0% -0.489 -0.034
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 3 33.33% 37.0 12.949 33.33% 0.225 1.9248
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 342 38.89% 28.2 -3.338 54.68% -0.449 -0.0379
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 260 43.46% 29.3 -1.446 50.38% -0.097 0.2649
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 158 60.76% 31.1 7.893 39.87% 0.41 0.8962
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 101 59.41% 25.65 -2.275 21.78% -0.386 0.6099
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 55 76.36% 26.76 0.0 18.18%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 20 45.0% 20.55 0.0 15.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 43 86.05% 29.07 -7.778 6.98% -0.132 1.8045
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 663 39.18% 26.61 -1.463 62.44% -0.126 0.0633
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 548 44.24% 29.97 0.549 60.58% 0.104 0.1134
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 446 46.62% 41.59 8.263 71.52% 0.739 0.7975
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 202 58.91% 44.23 8.196 62.87% 0.738 1.0105
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 139 55.4% 48.12 19.704 65.47% 0.968 1.2969
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 71 73.24% 47.27 0.0 47.89%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 105 74.29% 30.95 0.703 21.9% -1.077 0.2273
The Kingdom of England 0 1 718 38.91% 24.82 -0.981 52.79% -0.093 0.2078
The Kingdom of England 1 3 513 49.51% 30.52 0.949 48.15% -0.284 0.0434
The Kingdom of England 2 4 417 53.24% 31.07 -2.775 42.21% -1.299 -0.7209
The Kingdom of England 3 6 214 62.62% 31.02 -4.702 30.84% -0.901 0.1959
The Kingdom of England 4 7 170 66.27% 38.52 -0.075 37.06% -0.506 0.5335
The Kingdom of England 5 9 67 59.09% 41.42 -9.377 29.85% -0.4 1.3939
The Kingdom of England 6 11 297 66.78% 40.05 -4.144 26.94% -0.455 1.4438
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 617 42.05% 24.93 2.679 36.3% -0.039 0.4058
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 454 46.04% 25.02 1.045 29.3% -0.576 0.2031
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 474 43.04% 34.5 4.332 34.18% -0.136 1.101
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 244 56.56% 31.42 1.44 18.85% -0.28 1.0345
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 209 56.46% 31.09 4.928 13.4% -0.408 0.8847
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 218 50.92% 40.52 0.0 22.48%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 415 46.62% 32.88 3.223 12.77% -0.495 0.9408
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 173 26.01% 17.0 -0.2 38.15% 0.182 0.4458
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 118 41.53% 13.52 -3.67 16.95% -0.675 -0.3297
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 82 41.46% 22.6 -3.493 30.49% -1.28 -0.9892
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 56 46.43% 28.8 9.279 32.14% 0.323 0.4386
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 45 37.78% 28.98 2.838 28.89% -0.127 0.5309
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 96 61.46% 26.07 -1.866 13.54% -0.249 0.3708
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 150 44.67% 17.92 5.103 12.0% -0.335 0.7118
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 617 36.04% 26.02 -2.653 63.21% -0.428 -0.156
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 502 45.11% 29.18 0.332 58.96% 0.287 0.4201
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 534 50.56% 30.95 3.229 57.68% 0.317 0.5827
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 299 64.55% 37.18 3.617 54.18% 0.033 0.3593
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 123 71.54% 33.98 1.877 38.21% -0.388 0.377
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 85 63.53% 30.71 -6.014 30.59% -0.102 1.0604
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 237 72.88% 33.29 -5.395 30.8% -0.803 0.2491
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 361 31.94% 24.51 -2.905 58.73% -0.514 -0.3032
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 221 45.25% 24.94 11.91 44.34% 1.074 1.7903
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 143 50.35% 33.36 -4.046 53.85% -1.03 -0.7976
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 75 61.33% 32.27 -6.468 37.33% -0.832 0.077
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 39 58.97% 22.44 0.636 20.51% -0.389 0.8222
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 19 78.95% 33.21 0.0 21.05%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 47 82.98% 37.09 4.114 17.02% -0.777 0.8303

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 8905 46.79 27.29 54.4% 0.779 1.0526 0.138
1 Thematic 2079 52.48 30.9 43.77% -0.504 0.0708 0.207
2 Archipelago 13 61.54 30.0 53.85% 0.134 0.8108 -0.115
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1804 44.65 29.57 55.76% 0.715 0.7835 0.467
2 Coastline 333 42.07 29.15 60.06% 0.361 0.1424 0.783
2 Fragment 43 55.81 27.98 55.81% -0.472 -0.7391 -0.115
2 Heart 41 53.66 28.93 41.46% -0.21
2 Opposite Shores 430 38.3 28.91 60.93% 0.499 0.4768 0.578
2 Thematic 622 49.36 29.84 46.3% -0.399 -0.026 0.288
2 Top to Top 82 48.1 30.4 60.98% 0.092
3 Archipelago 11 54.55 32.73 36.36% -0.3
3 Coastline 11 27.27 32.64 72.73%
3 Other 42 19.51 16.83 35.71% -0.168
3 Round (Default) 1148 36.05 30.68 60.1% 0.738 0.5844 0.389
3 Sunrise 11 54.55 28.55 45.45% -0.133
3 Thematic 120 45.0 32.28 50.83% -0.056 -0.2035 -0.419
4 Archipelago 6 0.0 45.5 83.33% -0.31 -0.8369
4 Coastline 7 16.67 43.71 100.0% 0.513
4 Other 31 54.84 28.71 58.06% -0.532 -1.2165 -0.003
4 Snake 1 100.0 38.0 0.0% -0.426
4 Thematic 315 33.02 44.57 64.44% 0.285 0.1072 -0.644
4 Trapezoid (Default) 631 32.52 24.01 44.37% -0.918 -1.2473 -0.619
5 Coastline 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
5 Other 19 23.53 23.79 52.63% -0.076 -0.8257 0.196
5 Thematic 2 50.0 67.0 100.0%
6 Archipelago 2 50.0 33.0 50.0%
6 Coastline 4 0.0 30.75 100.0%
6 Other 10 42.86 24.3 80.0%
6 Star 10 10.0 14.8 30.0% -0.207 0.1282 -0.078
6 Thematic 34 26.47 19.21 35.29% 0.01
6 Two Centers (Default) 27 11.11 19.3 48.15% 0.328 0.5428 -0.424
7 Archipelago 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.079 -0.1994 -0.007
7 Other 2 100.0 0.0 0.0% -0.494

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 623 27.84 37.72% 0.018 0.0902 0.083
Aid From Lesser Spirits 524 28.14 38.17% -0.516 -0.5873 -0.179
All Things Weaken 333 23.15 31.53% -1.185 -0.9257 -1.065
Attenuated Essence 49 21.08 32.65% -0.71 -0.7458 0.34
Back Against the Wall 483 27.96 39.54% 0.001 0.0546 0.382
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 22.42 37.5% 0.163 0.3081 0.208
Burn Brightest Before the End 26 35.38 53.85% 0.794 0.8099 -0.161
Disintegrating Ecosystem 608 23.3 29.11% -0.267 -0.0792 -0.493
Downward Spiral 819 26.46 42.25% -0.033 0.0416 0.335
Erosion of Will 606 25.11 34.82% -0.034 0.121 -0.224
Intensifying Exploitation 62 20.68 27.42% -0.267 -0.1316 -0.422
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 128 31.21 60.94% 0.332 -0.2824 0.423
Memory Fades to Dust 828 25.53 36.47% -0.484 -0.2803 -0.404
Power Corrodes the Spirit 335 24.44 36.12% -0.108 0.0672 -0.853
Promising Farmlands 615 26.29 37.72% 0.035 0.2336 -0.429
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 28.52 41.38% -0.34 -0.3375 -0.284
Slow Dissolution of Will 64 19.09 23.44% -0.825 -0.5267 0.013
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 75 32.49 61.33% 0.734 0.0367 0.716
The Border of Life and Death 18 27.33 44.44% 0.383 -0.115 -0.332
Thriving Communities 371 24.68 31.81% 0.087 0.2429 0.269
Thriving Crops 18 18.89 38.89% -0.018 -0.3298
Tipping Point 157 26.83 27.39% -0.293
Unnatural Proliferation 365 25.42 32.05% -0.211 -0.1022 -0.557
Untended Land Crumbles 365 23.66 30.41% -0.377 -0.195 -0.166

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3135 42.86% 27.92 54.04% -0.464 0.5111 -0.652
B 3145 41.24% 27.8 53.26% -0.088 0.8009 -0.869
C 3208 41.31% 28.4 56.83% -0.086 0.6064 -0.583
D 3376 44.29% 27.94 56.46% -0.422 0.4736 -0.237
E 1661 39.56% 26.22 49.49% 0.014 0.7431 -0.567
F 2244 42.32% 27.98 56.06% -0.362 0.4691 -0.383
G 2193 42.22% 27.83 53.85% -0.305 0.4747 -0.736
H 2258 40.49% 27.87 54.25% -0.068 0.7145 -0.611
East 2044 45.79% 33.32 48.83% -0.06 0.749 -0.436
Northeast 1114 45.28% 33.79 47.31% -1.223 -0.4248 -1.296
Northwest 974 48.97% 34.47 46.92% 1.246 1.9794 -0.699
Southeast 495 42.42% 30.62 50.71% -0.043 0.85 0.212
Southwest 412 46.96% 25.08 44.17% -0.375 0.8826 -0.693
West 1862 50.16% 32.19 46.99% -0.487 0.5108 -0.654

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 168 0.0% 30.46 88.69% 0.225 0.8933 -0.096
Not Using Events or Tokens 305 50.0% 25.52 56.07% -0.908 -0.4875 0.276
Skip Initial Invader Actions 803 12.76% 44.81 84.68% -0.373 -1.1422 0.966
Start of Game Growth 1264 10.78% 41.65 85.13% 0.226 -0.2117 1.118
Unlimited Undo 1543 27.66% 30.37 64.74% 0.061 -0.0048 0.788
Using Tokens but Not Events 1680 34.49% 30.34 67.62% 0.475 0.4323 0.353

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3426 13.76 0.0%
II 7094 30.19 67.31%
III 6296 34.82 66.61%
IV 0 38.63

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.043 Win Model: 0.343
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 11144 47.81% 27.75 51.8%
2 3295 45.58% 30.13 56.12%
3 1288 34.56% 30.76 60.95%
4 980 33.02% 31.25 52.14%
5 26 30.43% 17.92 42.31%
6 83 19.74% 20.49 48.19%

Results

Result Completed
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2272
Lose: Invader deck ran out 529
Lose: Adversary condition 2033
Win: Sacrifice victory 29
Win: Scenario condition 8940
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2926
Lose: Spirit destroyed 87

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-07-13 03:02:19 (Pacific Time)