Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 44 63.64% 24.25 47.73% -0.487 -0.639 0.0
Blitz 0 444 50.68% 28.44 62.61% -0.495 -0.2665 -1.195
Dahan Insurrection 4 259 41.7% 47.22 66.41% -0.247 -0.4249 0.284
Despicable Theft 2 110 52.73% 31.55 57.27% -0.813 -0.0967 -0.795
Elemental Invocation 1 566 65.43% 26.58 61.31% -0.649 0.0958 -1.333
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2519 22.58% 47.77 77.17% 0.259 -0.3172 0.342
Powers Long Forgotten 1 113 61.95% 27.54 60.18% -0.951 -0.4327 -0.642
Rituals of Terror 3 89 70.11% 34.78 52.81% -1.809 -1.8316 -0.207
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 85 81.18% 31.91 62.35% -0.277 0.6766 0.277
Second Wave 0 1625 45.16% 27.38 76.18% 0.042 0.1429 0.318
The Great River 3 309 53.72% 33.57 65.05% 0.23 1.588 -1.083
Varied Terrains 2 61 67.21% 31.72 65.57% -0.356 0.2523 -0.139
Ward the Shores 2 109 57.01% 31.94 59.63% -0.159 0.9069 -0.216

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 41988 56.49% 32.58 67.46% 0.439 0.7302 0.271
1 Thematic 1386 56.86% 31.83 62.34% 0.351 1.0353 -0.462
2 Archipelago 56 56.36% 33.38 80.36% -0.342 0.3131 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7828 59.18% 31.86 68.57% 0.346 0.5653 -0.026
2 Coastline 1588 56.27% 33.94 70.28% 0.368 0.5075 0.288
2 Fragment 496 65.25% 44.88 74.4% 0.409 0.3371 1.576
2 Heart 205 62.93% 32.88 68.29% 0.591 0.3222 0.121
2 Opposite Shores 2154 52.64% 30.08 71.08% 0.272 0.4784 -0.354
2 Thematic 564 58.82% 31.01 60.11% -0.446 0.1621 -0.69
2 Top to Top 494 59.06% 33.63 67.0% 0.426 0.5762 -0.175
3 Archipelago 42 64.29% 32.93 64.29% -0.069 -0.7365 -0.522
3 Coastline 67 65.67% 32.67 61.19% -0.507 -0.9386 0.677
3 Other 253 46.43% 29.0 82.21% 0.099 -0.4397 -0.226
3 Round (Default) 5479 47.56% 33.18 74.05% -0.089 -0.0816 -0.121
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% 0.0 0.1892 0.486
3 Thematic 176 65.34% 33.02 68.18% -0.937 -1.2598 0.077
4 Archipelago 54 35.85% 32.52 83.33% 0.487 0.6508 -0.664
4 Coastline 27 29.63% 30.41 85.19% 0.194 0.0086 0.567
4 Leaf 25 56.0% 32.48 68.0% 0.73 0.3784 -0.712
4 Other 177 43.18% 33.22 84.18% 0.587 -0.1251 0.52
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.232 -0.0328 0.0
4 Thematic 680 40.32% 45.78 76.47% 0.023 -0.1122 -0.403
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2763 42.54% 34.83 76.37% -0.524 -0.7274 0.025
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.0497 0.0
5 Coastline 23 8.7% 48.39 86.96% 0.412 0.2449 -0.132
5 Other 260 39.77% 33.13 81.54% 0.098 -0.2695 0.552
5 Thematic 32 43.75% 45.28 84.38% 0.573 0.2406 0.649
6 Archipelago 12 16.67% 41.08 91.67% -1.177 -1.2062 0.0
6 Coastline 9 0.0% 47.67 88.89% -0.405 -0.9964 0.091
6 Other 132 31.06% 28.83 83.33% 1.102 0.5753 -0.638
6 Star 104 45.19% 35.5 72.12% -1.101 -0.551 -0.797
6 Thematic 331 39.09% 40.87 78.85% -1.02 -0.6545 -0.3
6 Two Centers (Default) 448 26.8% 34.12 84.6% -0.893 -0.524 -0.737
7 Archipelago 3 33.33% 20.67 66.67% -0.59 -1.362 0.0
7 Other 10 30.0% 28.4 70.0% 0.099 -0.8254 -0.267

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2668 30.66 48.84% -0.543 -0.0855 -1.209
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2171 33.51 56.15% -0.289 -0.003 -0.679
All Things Weaken 2948 32.45 56.07% -0.2 0.4384 -0.811
Attenuated Essence 34 25.12 47.06% -0.269 0.2039 -1.603
Back Against the Wall 2080 32.18 52.36% -0.145 0.2403 -0.973
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 53 22.72 43.4% -0.467 0.2385 -1.064
Burn Brightest Before the End 31 31.77 45.16% -0.156 0.4594 -1.062
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2509 29.81 52.21% -0.404 0.2879 -1.179
Downward Spiral 2816 29.3 52.73% -0.364 0.1497 -1.124
Erosion of Will 2612 28.94 43.03% -0.623 0.0386 -1.408
Intensifying Exploitation 50 27.58 46.0% -0.232 0.4545 -1.453
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1095 36.79 81.1% 0.471 0.1297 -0.117
Memory Fades to Dust 2812 30.56 56.26% -0.305 0.3368 -0.987
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2840 29.2 49.05% -0.517 -0.0388 -1.189
Promising Farmlands 2571 30.12 52.55% -0.118 0.6523 -1.098
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 33.44 53.49% 0.205 0.6875 -0.751
Slow Dissolution of Will 47 26.17 42.55% -0.658 0.1269 -1.199
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 775 37.55 86.19% 1.088 0.4214 0.287
The Border of Life and Death 13 26.38 69.23% 0.195 0.337 -0.272
Thriving Communities 2901 29.55 50.81% -0.475 0.2081 -1.078
Thriving Crops 21 36.0 71.43% 0.398 0.8312 0.618
Unnatural Proliferation 3020 31.42 52.88% -0.196 0.2953 -1.112
Untended Land Crumbles 2869 28.56 50.82% -0.255 0.2993 -1.272

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 11720 53.44% 32.17 69.74% -0.104 0.7895 -0.168
B 14878 50.71% 32.39 72.41% 0.17 0.9603 -0.345
C 12374 49.68% 31.94 71.71% 0.197 0.8318 -0.402
D 16227 56.33% 31.51 68.46% 0.124 0.9642 -0.413
E 18125 52.52% 35.38 70.66% 0.545 1.2064 0.034
F 14454 51.32% 34.81 73.49% 0.504 1.2485 0.12
G 8019 52.08% 31.1 70.56% 0.057 0.8237 -0.571
H 7426 52.73% 31.69 71.17% -0.05 0.6452 -0.438
East 2227 49.75% 37.59 68.52% -0.028 0.6963 -0.329
Northeast 1538 48.43% 39.8 70.94% -0.742 0.1642 -0.524
Northwest 1653 48.71% 39.95 71.93% 0.31 0.9432 0.273
Southeast 793 43.78% 37.64 73.01% 0.254 0.9343 -0.337
Southwest 801 45.99% 36.88 72.91% -0.406 0.8662 0.021
West 2363 50.34% 37.48 69.4% -0.846 0.2008 -0.364

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 465 0.0% 23.42 81.72% -0.758 0.2848 0.433
Not Using Events or Tokens 34 53.85% 17.68 67.65% 0.599 0.881 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1452 16.08% 43.45 90.29% 0.017 -0.4972 0.085
Start of Game Growth 2318 20.13% 41.1 88.83% 0.734 0.3534 -0.017
Unlimited Undo 7575 45.4% 35.99 77.57% 0.088 -0.0052 0.713
Using Tokens but Not Events 6029 38.78% 29.0 80.63% 0.074 0.0275 0.185

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3232 100.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.448 0.2914 -0.062
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 683 100.0% 29.1 100.0% -0.455 -0.3592 -0.675
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1109 100.0% 32.39 100.0% 0.124 -0.0466 -0.311
Downpour Drenches the World 515 100.0% 34.15 100.0% 0.019 0.2179 0.111
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 219 100.0% 33.06 100.0% 0.22 -0.3081 0.152
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1567 100.0% 34.77 100.0% 0.253 -0.3268 0.249
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1092 100.0% 33.36 100.0% 0.509 0.0449 0.22
Finder of Paths Unseen 666 100.0% 35.0 100.0% -0.191 0.4727 0.297
Fractured Days Split the Sky 887 100.0% 38.31 100.0% -0.435 0.2091 0.49
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 847 100.0% 33.7 100.0% 0.024 -0.133 0.035
Heart of the Wildfire 1490 100.0% 30.44 100.0% -0.122 0.1272 -0.332
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3852 100.0% 38.09 100.0% 0.544 0.047 0.856
Lightning's Swift Strike 602 200.81% 29.47 141.53% 0.215 0.4445 -0.155
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 197 52.85% 36.52 73.1% 0.451 -0.3076 0.025
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 409 46.9% 35.89 80.68% 0.968 0.5979 0.727
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 564 44.13% 42.13 79.08% -0.0 -0.256 0.386
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3147 100.0% 34.47 100.0% -0.027 -0.2236 -0.23
Many Minds Move as One 1056 100.0% 31.56 100.0% -0.095 -0.3728 0.247
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2119 100.0% 36.13 100.0% -0.302 -0.3346 0.175
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1252 100.0% 31.88 100.0% 0.301 0.2077 0.155
River Surges in Sunlight 1309 130.93% 37.23 117.95% 0.547 0.4988 0.47
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 576 44.62% 32.23 69.44% -0.265 -0.006 -1.073
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 187 49.46% 40.95 68.45% -0.239 -0.4269 0.532
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1458 100.0% 35.84 100.0% 0.305 0.1378 -0.072
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 177 280.0% 25.63 216.38% -0.312 0.1118 -0.819
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 63 66.13% 30.78 52.38% 0.537 0.4739 0.191
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 62 54.84% 33.08 74.19% -0.437 -0.3544 0.081
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 307 50.98% 30.7 71.66% -0.116 -0.131 -1.171
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 251 50.0% 29.09 70.92% -0.082 -0.0187 -0.17
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1282 101.95% 36.79 101.79% 0.31 0.1425 0.475
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 41 39.02% 22.49 43.9% -0.626 -0.8031 -0.363
Shifting Memory of Ages 1005 100.0% 30.4 100.0% -0.404 -0.076 -0.528
Shroud of Silent Mist 1157 100.0% 28.13 100.0% -0.427 -0.1096 -0.133
Starlight Seeks its Form 1170 100.0% 36.77 100.0% 0.33 0.1113 0.791
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3022 100.0% 33.79 100.0% 0.317 -0.2046 -0.373
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1304 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.118 0.1368 0.657
Thunderspeaker 1232 101.46% 34.24 100.81% 0.117 0.0689 0.193
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 25 28.0% 28.56 60.0% 0.005 0.0801 0.147
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1461 100.0% 30.0 100.0% -0.718 -0.6608 -0.272
Vital Strength of the Earth 612 136.05% 26.84 127.45% -0.244 0.3308 -0.437
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 152 56.58% 34.98 61.84% 0.315 0.5665 -0.014
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 332 53.17% 28.68 66.87% -1.218 -0.2749 -0.369

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 86.02%
Lava Flows 88.96%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.95%
Rain of Ash 69.13%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11462 21.53 21.31%
II 30676 31.06 68.05%
III 20229 34.72 89.2%
IV 5538 37.99 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2345
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17171
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20051
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5195
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 835
Lose: Invader deck ran out 271
Lose: Adversary condition 4895
Win: Sacrifice victory 1900
Lose: Scenario condition 427
Win: Scenario condition 230
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10066
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4519

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.666 Win Model: -0.162

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.164 Win Model: 0.245
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43509 56.53% 32.57 67.26%
2 13411 58.06% 32.37 69.16%
3 5985 48.26% 33.05 74.07%
4 3732 41.32% 36.72 77.25%
5 227 35.84% 32.18 82.38%
6 1041 32.63% 35.96 81.46%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-20 14:08:36 (Pacific Time)