Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 148 55.41% 28.03 -2.72 57.43% -1.063 -0.4822
Dahan Insurrection 4 100 44.0% 47.38 6.113 56.0% -0.977 -0.5736
Despicable Theft 2 16 50.0% 32.06 0.322 68.75% -0.427 -0.0768
Elemental Invocation 1 321 66.46% 26.77 -2.658 63.86% -0.681 -0.3087
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 960 21.6% 49.3 6.283 81.35% 0.255 0.6192
Powers Long Forgotten 1 36 69.44% 28.22 -2.175 69.44% -0.407 0.0342
Rituals of Terror 3 20 68.42% 33.85 1.607 70.0% -0.391 0.2435
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 25 84.0% 27.64 -0.433 60.0% -0.659 -0.0187
Second Wave 0 304 48.84% 28.23 -1.838 78.62% -0.298 0.1264
The Great River 3 129 45.74% 31.51 0.413 72.09% -0.656 0.7655
Ward the Shores 2 25 56.52% 29.8 -1.288 52.0% -1.371 -0.3291

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 16831 56.25% 33.71 0.037 70.01% -0.347 -0.0202
1 Thematic 517 58.88% 32.44 -0.318 65.18% -0.522 -0.0484
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2623 58.11% 32.32 -0.507 70.76% -0.301 -0.1047
2 Coastline 501 53.61% 33.22 -0.328 70.86% -0.4 -0.2494
2 Fragment 186 67.74% 43.04 3.286 72.58% 0.136 0.5398
2 Heart 72 55.56% 37.14 1.059 81.94% 0.415 0.7276
2 Opposite Shores 705 50.92% 31.29 -1.039 77.59% -0.177 0.0464
2 Thematic 177 60.57% 33.08 -0.409 64.97% -0.462 -0.4333
2 Top to Top 138 59.12% 33.81 -0.144 69.57% -0.323 -0.1829
3 Coastline 24 70.83% 32.79 -0.019 50.0% -0.493 -0.5401
3 Other 100 51.52% 32.28 -0.547 90.0% 0.682 1.1209
3 Round (Default) 1683 48.74% 34.47 0.033 74.99% -0.083 -0.0249
3 Sunrise 7 71.43% 41.14 2.913 85.71% 0.418 0.2205
3 Thematic 55 63.64% 34.44 0.592 69.09% -0.149 -0.5105
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 31.67 -0.158 100.0% 0.369 0.54
4 Leaf 4 25.0% 43.25 4.708 75.0% -0.134 -0.0703
4 Other 60 40.0% 36.08 0.157 78.33% 0.03 0.1609
4 Thematic 289 32.29% 47.32 3.686 80.62% 0.089 -0.9711
4 Trapezoid (Default) 921 40.88% 36.43 0.214 77.42% -0.037 0.0014
5 Other 28 64.29% 42.29 2.959 92.86% 1.137 0.9384
5 Thematic 4 25.0% 55.25 6.454 100.0% 0.188 -2.7682

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1013 31.21 -2.289 49.16% -1.765 0.3054
Aid From Lesser Spirits 792 32.76 -1.375 56.19% -1.547 0.3752
All Things Weaken 1136 33.47 -1.035 56.34% -1.452 0.7017
Back Against the Wall 771 32.98 -1.193 56.16% -1.476 0.6199
Disintegrating Ecosystem 940 29.39 -3.034 52.02% -1.629 0.5969
Downward Spiral 1037 30.23 -2.549 54.87% -1.602 0.4168
Erosion of Will 983 29.3 -3.274 43.95% -2.007 0.2037
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 424 38.33 1.543 83.73% -0.163 0.5305
Memory Fades to Dust 1005 31.63 -1.777 60.1% -1.313 0.9023
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1030 29.31 -2.967 49.81% -1.817 0.2
Promising Farmlands 970 30.97 -2.414 51.96% -1.641 0.572
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 303 38.07 1.521 88.45% 0.148 0.5787
Thriving Communities 1075 30.25 -2.513 54.14% -1.594 0.5019
Unnatural Proliferation 1091 31.31 -1.928 53.99% -1.586 0.5005
Untended Land Crumbles 1063 29.39 -2.842 53.62% -1.62 0.4757

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2316 58.58% 32.71 -0.438 67.57% 0.094 -1.0071
B 3931 50.73% 32.84 -0.401 74.28% 0.234 -0.962
C 2301 52.71% 31.3 -1.032 71.97% 0.034 -1.395
D 4148 59.86% 32.21 -0.746 69.17% 0.154 -1.0368
E 5120 53.76% 37.19 1.586 71.56% 0.448 -0.8508
F 3626 53.39% 36.93 1.473 74.21% 0.409 -0.8455
G 1328 57.81% 28.82 -2.242 67.7% -0.21 -1.4524
H 1116 60.92% 29.29 -1.966 65.41% -0.271 -1.5287
East 159 51.27% 37.79 1.318 70.44% -0.112 -1.0717
Northeast 241 55.04% 34.72 0.499 63.9% -0.137 -1.0385
Northwest 368 50.71% 39.93 1.985 75.82% 0.228 -0.7465
Southeast 81 46.91% 34.51 -0.734 69.14% -0.295 -1.2997
Southwest 81 60.49% 28.6 -2.254 65.43% 0.005 -0.5946
West 112 46.43% 37.77 0.652 65.18% -0.545 -1.2445

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 162 0.0% 23.91 -4.517 81.48% -1.667 0.3816
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 20.0% 19.0 -5.856 83.33% -0.172 0.0489
Skip Initial Invader Actions 547 17.17% 45.56 4.578 90.86% 0.458 -0.2466
Start of Game Growth 988 17.57% 39.79 1.528 92.11% 0.831 0.3792
Unlimited Undo 2944 46.97% 35.86 0.843 78.06% 0.355 -0.062
Using Tokens but Not Events 1987 37.84% 29.39 -1.96 84.05% 0.019 -0.0323

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1053 45.81% 34.33 -0.153 77.3% 0.074 0.2095
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 222 58.56% 30.3 -1.52 70.27% -0.306 -0.0751
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 312 44.05% 33.29 -0.27 77.56% 0.074 -0.0121
Eyes Watch From the Trees 456 38.11% 34.82 0.443 80.48% 0.217 -0.1528
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 350 43.84% 35.81 0.658 78.86% 0.231 -0.0247
Fractured Days Split the Sky 325 46.91% 40.2 1.945 74.15% 0.013 0.3742
Heart of the Wildfire 437 59.86% 32.12 -1.549 67.28% -0.269 0.0798
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1152 43.09% 39.13 1.755 81.6% 0.493 0.1912
Lightning's Swift Strike 487 46.74% 36.96 1.206 80.08% 0.289 0.55
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1239 49.64% 35.05 0.059 73.93% 0.027 -0.2629
Many Minds Move as One 315 44.23% 33.3 -0.151 78.41% 0.07 -0.4569
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 690 45.52% 38.88 1.727 78.26% 0.327 0.1305
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 347 48.98% 33.44 -0.243 75.5% 0.078 0.1224
River Surges in Sunlight 634 53.44% 36.59 0.621 73.03% -0.096 0.0569
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 448 48.31% 37.21 0.466 70.76% -0.199 -0.0549
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 271 56.13% 30.61 -1.573 71.59% -0.242 0.2004
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 361 45.53% 37.35 0.71 78.95% 0.118 0.0455
Shroud of Silent Mist 329 62.8% 29.15 -2.013 66.57% -0.454 -0.4773
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1056 49.17% 34.11 -0.555 71.5% -0.065 -0.0857
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 463 45.41% 38.8 1.639 77.75% 0.186 0.3949
Thunderspeaker 315 41.72% 36.97 0.502 72.7% -0.325 -0.2711
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 448 73.42% 32.04 -0.947 63.62% -0.085 -0.0716
Vital Strength of the Earth 271 51.5% 27.86 -2.526 73.8% -0.27 0.5986

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 88.11%
Lava Flows 90.69%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 96.23%
Rain of Ash 69.95%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3756 22.33 26.09%
II 11748 30.75 69.22%
III 7480 34.25 89.18%
IV 1944 37.47 99.69%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 946
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 6342
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 7845
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1823
Lose: Invader deck ran out 96
Lose: Adversary condition 1738
Win: Sacrifice victory 698
Lose: Scenario condition 144
Win: Scenario condition 67
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3559
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1670

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.219 Win Model: -0.243

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.137 Win Model: -0.08
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 17372 56.31% 33.69 69.9%
2 4416 57.07% 32.86 71.85%
3 1855 49.37% 34.37 75.26%
4 1285 39.12% 39.01 78.52%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)