Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 18 22.22% 27.94 88.89% 0.003 0.1111 0.0
Blitz 0 368 50.68% 29.27 64.13% -1.254 -0.9867 -1.229
Dahan Insurrection 4 222 42.34% 46.94 65.32% -0.593 -0.2603 0.202
Despicable Theft 2 89 57.3% 32.76 60.67% -0.691 -0.4399 -0.494
Elemental Invocation 1 527 66.86% 26.65 61.48% -1.09 -0.4414 -1.367
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2177 21.97% 48.59 79.28% 0.047 0.2132 0.335
Powers Long Forgotten 1 92 68.48% 28.75 61.96% -0.621 -0.2955 -0.731
Rituals of Terror 3 67 75.38% 36.0 58.21% 0.38 0.2705 -0.262
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 74 82.43% 31.11 62.16% 0.533 1.1896 -0.131
Second Wave 0 1304 47.02% 27.69 76.84% -0.301 0.1704 0.226
The Great River 3 273 54.58% 33.32 64.84% -0.066 1.4349 -1.195
Varied Terrains 2 20 70.0% 35.4 80.0% 0.053 0.5884 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 88 60.47% 32.22 59.09% -1.188 -0.0005 -0.151

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 36217 56.78% 32.99 68.46% 0.304 0.7518 0.007
1 Thematic 1178 59.55% 31.5 63.16% 0.662 1.2648 -0.653
2 Archipelago 42 56.1% 36.88 88.1% -0.222 0.4436 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6602 59.69% 32.21 69.72% -0.09 0.3019 -0.129
2 Coastline 1365 56.08% 34.17 71.28% -0.085 0.0031 0.105
2 Fragment 446 64.94% 45.8 76.23% 0.119 0.185 1.491
2 Heart 178 64.04% 33.38 69.1% 0.251 0.5234 0.047
2 Opposite Shores 1858 51.7% 30.24 72.66% -0.452 0.0407 -0.391
2 Thematic 475 59.75% 31.88 64.21% -0.622 -0.1536 -0.842
2 Top to Top 378 60.8% 33.28 65.87% 0.674 0.9558 -0.448
3 Archipelago 30 73.33% 35.83 60.0% 0.371 -0.0117 -0.248
3 Coastline 63 65.08% 32.57 60.32% 1.196 0.5565 0.593
3 Other 222 45.7% 29.56 84.68% 0.359 -0.7298 -0.182
3 Round (Default) 4617 47.03% 33.43 75.59% 0.065 0.333 -0.14
3 Sunrise 23 60.87% 38.26 78.26% -0.34 -0.5594 0.459
3 Thematic 144 65.28% 33.71 72.92% 0.474 0.25 0.707
4 Archipelago 39 42.11% 33.74 82.05% 0.1 -0.7514 -0.969
4 Coastline 19 31.58% 26.74 84.21% -0.431 -0.4235 0.401
4 Leaf 20 50.0% 32.45 60.0% 0.287 0.5272 -0.73
4 Other 160 46.54% 34.11 85.0% 0.653 0.2074 0.222
4 Thematic 644 39.94% 46.42 77.48% -0.487 -0.3913 -0.212
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2380 42.13% 35.29 78.15% 0.117 -0.0199 0.223
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.019 -0.3975 0.0
5 Coastline 9 11.11% 43.44 77.78% -0.343 -0.8553 0.156
5 Other 188 41.71% 34.07 81.38% -0.929 -0.6596 0.656
5 Thematic 29 48.28% 40.0 82.76% 0.333 0.2262 0.583
6 Archipelago 7 14.29% 32.71 100.0% 0.138 -0.3768 0.0
6 Coastline 5 0.0% 40.4 100.0% 0.021 -0.4184 0.043
6 Other 80 32.5% 26.59 78.75% -0.423 0.4652 -0.824
6 Star 69 50.72% 36.88 72.46% -0.531 0.3633 -0.188
6 Thematic 223 37.39% 39.75 79.82% -0.946 -0.5827 -0.698
6 Two Centers (Default) 316 25.08% 35.47 89.56% -0.777 -0.399 -0.142
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.8404 0.0
7 Other 3 66.67% 22.67 66.67% 0.618 -0.3181 -0.115

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2345 30.76 49.47% -1.507 0.3247 -1.329
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1895 33.66 56.62% -0.972 0.6826 -0.823
All Things Weaken 2540 32.31 56.14% -1.465 0.5117 -0.976
Back Against the Wall 1804 32.1 52.83% -1.367 0.4916 -1.091
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2190 29.84 52.88% -1.398 0.5763 -1.308
Downward Spiral 2447 29.32 53.21% -1.655 0.2472 -1.283
Erosion of Will 2258 28.94 42.91% -1.949 0.0946 -1.524
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 953 36.92 81.95% -0.283 0.2889 -0.19
Memory Fades to Dust 2434 30.75 57.11% -1.255 0.724 -1.082
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2464 29.26 49.63% -1.748 0.144 -1.34
Promising Farmlands 2236 29.97 52.64% -1.293 0.7463 -1.228
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 665 37.36 86.47% 0.14 0.5811 0.13
Thriving Communities 2522 29.69 51.47% -1.404 0.5601 -1.192
Unnatural Proliferation 2591 31.36 53.18% -1.394 0.5122 -1.257
Untended Land Crumbles 2465 28.81 51.44% -1.683 0.3513 -1.429

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9856 54.14% 32.64 71.1% 0.099 0.867 -0.129
B 12636 50.71% 32.84 73.8% 0.49 1.183 -0.357
C 10466 49.97% 32.19 72.64% -0.041 0.5238 -0.326
D 13855 56.54% 31.89 69.96% 0.211 0.9794 -0.365
E 15120 52.96% 35.69 71.42% 0.349 0.9479 0.036
F 12367 51.84% 35.28 74.42% 0.43 1.1395 0.153
G 6761 52.35% 31.41 71.62% -0.277 0.4486 -0.501
H 6233 53.39% 32.02 72.12% 0.091 0.7814 -0.331
East 1903 50.42% 38.03 70.2% -0.392 0.2304 -0.234
Northeast 1308 49.15% 40.19 72.09% 0.264 0.9457 -0.643
Northwest 1385 49.3% 39.97 73.21% 0.272 1.339 0.184
Southeast 613 44.01% 37.32 74.55% -0.789 -0.0609 -0.366
Southwest 619 45.94% 36.84 75.12% 0.255 1.2257 0.035
West 1999 51.09% 37.74 71.24% -0.197 0.8063 -0.211

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 367 0.0% 24.15 83.65% -0.389 1.6225 0.034
Not Using Events or Tokens 28 57.14% 17.46 64.29% -0.673 -0.4587 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1290 15.99% 43.85 91.24% 0.673 0.5796 -0.298
Start of Game Growth 2091 20.27% 41.42 89.57% 0.938 0.2305 0.006
Unlimited Undo 6501 45.43% 36.52 79.34% 0.326 -0.3733 0.775
Using Tokens but Not Events 5021 38.94% 29.74 82.73% 0.366 0.3206 0.4

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2738 100.0% 34.81 100.0% -0.158 -0.292 -0.046
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 574 100.0% 29.57 100.0% -0.318 -0.2718 -0.813
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 930 100.0% 32.64 100.0% -1.109 -1.2288 -0.478
Downpour Drenches the World 234 100.0% 35.92 100.0% 0.013 0.3617 0.002
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1335 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 1.155 0.7341 0.219
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 901 100.0% 34.1 100.0% -0.335 -0.8974 0.353
Finder of Paths Unseen 329 100.0% 34.46 100.0% 0.054 0.4554 -0.035
Fractured Days Split the Sky 778 100.0% 38.81 100.0% -0.476 -0.4221 0.409
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 635 100.0% 34.55 100.0% 0.255 0.2468 0.197
Heart of the Wildfire 1248 100.0% 30.68 100.0% 0.144 0.3706 -0.283
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3358 100.0% 38.08 100.0% 0.277 -0.2454 0.841
Lightning's Swift Strike 502 196.06% 29.02 134.86% -0.289 -0.0456 -0.367
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 67 47.76% 35.87 88.06% 0.624 -0.2295 0.697
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 367 47.11% 36.01 80.65% 0.66 0.0506 0.725
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 475 44.82% 41.94 79.79% 0.4 0.0221 0.368
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2789 100.0% 34.88 100.0% -0.082 -0.2999 -0.173
Many Minds Move as One 871 100.0% 32.01 100.0% 0.268 -0.2708 0.28
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1813 100.0% 36.57 100.0% 0.064 -0.2532 0.093
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1042 100.0% 31.84 100.0% -0.246 -0.262 0.253
River Surges in Sunlight 1178 126.48% 37.53 115.28% -0.411 -0.3582 0.469
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 512 45.24% 32.75 69.53% -0.614 -0.2567 -0.959
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 76 50.0% 36.39 68.42% -0.491 -0.7211 -0.25
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1240 100.0% 36.01 100.0% 0.023 -0.0116 -0.126
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 153 274.84% 26.57 205.88% -0.361 0.1059 -0.809
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 27 55.56% 33.63 74.07% -0.12 -0.0223 0.541
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 23 56.52% 32.48 69.57% -0.221 -0.3963 -0.485
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 272 52.03% 31.24 71.32% 0.871 0.8119 -1.127
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 238 49.79% 29.08 70.59% 0.094 0.2542 -0.132
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1083 100.0% 37.48 100.0% 0.293 -0.0097 0.611
Shifting Memory of Ages 777 100.0% 31.16 100.0% -0.155 -0.1162 -0.406
Shroud of Silent Mist 995 100.0% 29.02 100.0% 0.105 0.4293 -0.105
Starlight Seeks its Form 848 100.0% 36.48 100.0% 0.186 -0.0181 0.868
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2675 100.0% 34.09 100.0% 0.019 -0.1672 -0.457
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1126 100.0% 36.56 100.0% -0.047 0.037 0.764
Thunderspeaker 1042 100.0% 34.53 100.0% -0.237 -0.2676 0.057
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1234 100.0% 30.86 100.0% -0.548 -0.5917 -0.243
Vital Strength of the Earth 539 127.04% 27.29 118.18% 0.283 1.0773 -0.464
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 55 61.82% 38.75 70.91% 0.367 0.8187 0.166
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 275 54.38% 29.9 70.18% 0.252 1.2827 -0.204

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 86.18%
Lava Flows 89.26%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.94%
Rain of Ash 69.11%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9221 22.6 23.29%
II 26658 31.02 68.58%
III 17455 34.59 89.29%
IV 4707 37.83 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2070
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14814
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17586
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4421
Lose: Invader deck ran out 222
Lose: Adversary condition 4202
Win: Sacrifice victory 1634
Lose: Scenario condition 360
Win: Scenario condition 190
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8645
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3897

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.993 Win Model: -0.243

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.099 Win Model: 0.272
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 37493 56.9% 32.96 68.28%
2 11388 58.29% 32.7 70.4%
3 5051 47.77% 33.32 75.65%
4 3271 41.23% 37.43 78.78%
5 139 39.13% 30.2 81.29%
6 699 32.14% 35.94 83.69%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)