Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 58.0% 23.62 48.0% 0.353 0.1637 -0.776
Blitz 0 475 49.89% 27.8 61.68% -0.242 -0.0579 -1.165
Dahan Insurrection 4 270 41.11% 46.57 65.19% -0.228 -0.5421 0.417
Despicable Theft 2 115 50.43% 31.03 56.52% -0.725 0.0199 -0.767
Elemental Invocation 1 580 64.71% 26.43 60.86% -0.6 0.1722 -1.261
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2610 22.52% 47.51 76.82% 0.612 -0.0088 0.42
Powers Long Forgotten 1 131 61.83% 25.37 52.67% -1.574 -1.0312 -0.564
Rituals of Terror 3 97 68.42% 33.14 50.52% -1.362 -1.2548 -0.151
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 94 79.79% 30.3 58.51% -0.646 0.3252 0.103
Second Wave 0 1722 44.73% 27.2 75.96% 0.275 0.3428 0.396
The Great River 3 328 53.05% 33.68 64.63% -0.015 1.2825 -0.762
Varied Terrains 2 77 63.64% 30.03 63.64% -0.221 0.3531 -0.535
Ward the Shores 2 120 55.93% 30.2 55.83% -1.118 0.0154 -0.284

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 43511 56.33% 32.34 66.93% 0.431 0.5435 0.304
1 Thematic 1434 56.7% 31.53 61.51% -0.147 0.4172 -0.443
2 Archipelago 57 55.36% 33.51 80.7% -0.605 -0.2802 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8234 59.02% 31.47 67.57% 0.346 0.4406 -0.026
2 Coastline 1690 55.35% 33.59 69.82% 0.542 0.482 0.255
2 Fragment 513 65.43% 44.33 73.49% 0.544 0.3906 1.598
2 Heart 234 63.25% 32.53 64.1% 0.322 0.0003 0.025
2 Opposite Shores 2297 52.8% 29.72 69.79% 0.185 0.2454 -0.355
2 Thematic 603 58.67% 30.17 58.21% -0.572 -0.013 -0.644
2 Top to Top 528 59.62% 33.23 66.1% 0.428 0.3501 -0.146
3 Archipelago 45 64.44% 33.47 62.22% -0.25 -1.8492 -0.714
3 Coastline 71 61.97% 32.13 60.56% -0.131 -0.5768 0.334
3 Other 264 47.15% 29.04 81.44% 0.355 0.8922 -0.133
3 Round (Default) 5807 47.54% 32.98 73.17% 0.392 0.2319 -0.099
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% 0.0 0.1671 0.502
3 Thematic 191 63.35% 31.89 65.45% -0.205 -0.139 -0.201
4 Archipelago 55 35.19% 31.93 81.82% 0.165 -0.4919 -0.539
4 Coastline 28 28.57% 30.11 85.71% -0.597 -0.3729 0.6
4 Leaf 26 53.85% 31.23 65.38% -0.097 -0.6372 -0.728
4 Other 182 43.65% 32.82 84.62% 0.872 -0.2451 0.618
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 697 39.91% 45.24 75.61% -0.362 -0.5359 -0.38
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2867 43.02% 34.61 75.37% -0.307 -0.5089 0.04
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1404 0.0
5 Coastline 24 8.33% 49.38 87.5% 0.502 0.0629 -0.038
5 Other 298 43.24% 33.55 82.89% 1.326 0.8608 0.733
5 Thematic 33 45.45% 46.09 84.85% 0.797 0.8215 0.748
6 Archipelago 12 16.67% 41.08 91.67% -0.943 -0.5739 0.0
6 Coastline 10 0.0% 50.2 90.0% -0.079 -0.6981 0.147
6 Other 145 30.34% 29.72 82.07% 0.42 0.0515 -0.352
6 Star 120 50.0% 33.71 68.33% -1.514 -1.3371 -0.651
6 Thematic 363 39.5% 40.53 77.41% -0.687 -0.2142 -0.094
6 Two Centers (Default) 519 26.21% 32.8 80.35% -0.14 -0.0582 -1.196
7 Archipelago 4 25.0% 15.5 50.0% -0.812 -0.9165 0.0
7 Other 13 30.77% 24.15 61.54% -0.193 -0.9566 -0.536

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2746 30.5 48.43% -0.393 -0.1939 -1.147
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2235 33.47 56.2% 0.038 -0.0286 -0.605
All Things Weaken 3040 32.28 55.66% -0.044 0.3243 -0.739
Attenuated Essence 86 27.05 45.35% -0.017 0.0537 -1.78
Back Against the Wall 2155 32.09 52.25% -0.014 0.0547 -0.904
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 110 27.3 48.18% 0.202 0.4585 -1.19
Burn Brightest Before the End 81 36.2 51.85% 0.266 0.441 -0.761
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2596 29.61 51.77% -0.092 0.3468 -1.128
Downward Spiral 2909 29.23 52.6% -0.116 0.1303 -1.073
Erosion of Will 2684 28.91 43.0% -0.155 0.1623 -1.351
Intensifying Exploitation 102 29.0 45.1% -0.019 0.25 -0.91
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1142 36.56 80.91% 0.629 0.1196 -0.062
Memory Fades to Dust 2913 30.42 55.89% -0.301 0.0632 -0.939
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2938 29.08 48.88% -0.129 0.1074 -1.121
Promising Farmlands 2650 29.95 52.08% -0.272 0.1888 -1.053
Shattered Fragments of Power 76 33.33 53.95% 0.442 0.4966 -0.872
Slow Dissolution of Will 97 25.11 39.18% -0.399 0.0083 -1.135
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 798 37.52 85.71% 1.206 0.5635 0.369
The Border of Life and Death 28 31.29 75.0% 0.769 0.3819 0.043
Thriving Communities 3003 29.39 50.48% -0.28 0.0773 -1.03
Thriving Crops 45 32.93 71.11% 0.852 0.7371 0.19
Unnatural Proliferation 3115 31.3 52.81% 0.016 0.1891 -1.057
Untended Land Crumbles 2973 28.44 50.39% -0.354 -0.1057 -1.214

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 12329 53.28% 31.93 68.91% -0.099 0.7341 -0.185
B 15609 50.69% 32.16 71.59% 0.124 0.9233 -0.365
C 13048 49.77% 31.7 70.92% 0.133 0.7899 -0.43
D 17002 56.17% 31.23 67.72% 0.138 0.9314 -0.424
E 19068 52.28% 35.08 70.01% 0.528 1.1563 0.018
F 15155 51.34% 34.4 72.53% 0.371 1.0843 0.094
G 8452 51.91% 30.85 69.76% -0.116 0.622 -0.585
H 7854 52.46% 31.29 70.12% -0.27 0.3893 -0.516
East 2340 49.35% 37.05 67.39% -0.024 0.584 -0.348
Northeast 1626 47.89% 39.13 69.56% -0.44 0.3084 -0.436
Northwest 1736 48.63% 39.37 70.79% 0.309 1.1247 0.288
Southeast 843 44.15% 37.35 72.0% 0.003 0.7321 -0.324
Southwest 857 45.9% 36.4 71.41% -0.291 0.774 0.057
West 2485 50.2% 36.83 68.05% -0.733 0.216 -0.34

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 479 0.0% 23.23 81.0% -0.304 0.5088 0.439
Not Using Events or Tokens 39 54.84% 20.74 71.79% 1.12 1.4567 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1514 16.29% 42.8 88.64% 0.021 -0.6117 -0.458
Start of Game Growth 2407 20.15% 40.58 87.62% 0.309 0.0189 -0.074
Unlimited Undo 7957 45.75% 35.64 76.4% -0.045 -0.0418 0.693
Using Tokens but Not Events 6288 38.92% 28.81 79.85% 0.225 0.1502 0.223

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3411 100.0% 34.6 100.0% 0.658 0.5076 0.023
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 740 100.0% 28.22 100.0% -0.695 -0.5715 -0.618
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1161 100.0% 32.06 100.0% 0.081 -0.0752 -0.234
Downpour Drenches the World 599 100.0% 32.46 100.0% -0.345 -0.1565 -0.062
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 407 100.0% 31.5 100.0% 0.439 -0.3941 -0.162
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1637 100.0% 34.71 100.0% 0.472 -0.1294 0.336
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1143 100.0% 33.1 100.0% 0.503 0.0183 0.278
Finder of Paths Unseen 781 100.0% 33.93 100.0% -0.056 0.6126 0.312
Fractured Days Split the Sky 940 100.0% 37.84 100.0% -0.129 0.4912 0.365
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 920 100.0% 33.16 100.0% 0.179 0.0884 0.085
Heart of the Wildfire 1537 100.0% 30.2 100.0% 0.025 0.2745 -0.265
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4011 100.0% 37.87 100.0% 0.686 0.2596 0.871
Lightning's Swift Strike 646 203.04% 29.16 147.99% -0.112 0.1137 -0.283
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 255 52.59% 34.59 63.14% -0.289 -0.9249 -0.609
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 435 48.02% 35.77 79.54% 0.519 0.3714 0.631
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 596 43.43% 41.98 78.69% 0.353 0.2313 0.435
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3274 100.0% 34.13 100.0% -0.137 -0.2767 -0.16
Many Minds Move as One 1100 100.0% 31.19 100.0% -0.051 -0.2477 0.389
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2226 100.0% 35.66 100.0% -0.296 -0.291 0.153
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1328 100.0% 31.69 100.0% 0.391 0.2498 0.173
River Surges in Sunlight 1348 132.77% 37.23 120.1% 0.197 0.263 0.566
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 604 44.87% 31.77 68.71% -0.013 0.222 -0.904
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 230 48.91% 38.89 64.35% -0.229 -0.3472 0.31
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1546 100.0% 35.35 100.0% 0.031 -0.2119 -0.04
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 194 274.24% 25.26 219.59% -0.559 -0.0551 -0.797
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 70 65.22% 30.23 55.71% 0.57 0.5138 0.211
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 69 56.52% 31.67 69.57% -0.695 -0.7277 0.118
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 333 50.45% 30.05 69.67% -0.391 -0.4446 -1.199
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 258 50.58% 28.77 69.38% -0.431 -0.3019 -0.205
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1328 103.01% 36.69 102.33% 0.142 0.0001 0.6
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 67 40.3% 26.69 53.73% 0.05 -0.3994 -0.188
Shifting Memory of Ages 1085 100.0% 30.02 100.0% -0.395 -0.0102 -0.555
Shroud of Silent Mist 1205 100.0% 27.88 100.0% -0.222 0.0616 -0.198
Starlight Seeks its Form 1325 100.0% 36.56 100.0% 0.447 0.2128 0.811
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3141 100.0% 33.4 100.0% 0.096 -0.4042 -0.31
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1372 100.0% 35.75 100.0% 0.453 0.5013 0.711
Thunderspeaker 1283 102.03% 33.97 101.56% -0.069 -0.0772 0.116
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 50 48.0% 29.12 60.0% 0.291 0.1655 0.236
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1573 100.0% 29.66 100.0% -0.286 -0.2037 -0.165
Vital Strength of the Earth 642 137.17% 26.46 128.82% -0.439 0.1106 -0.398
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 175 54.29% 34.35 60.57% 0.37 0.598 0.107
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 343 53.51% 28.48 66.18% -1.01 -0.1344 -0.412

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 85.95%
Lava Flows 88.87%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.92%
Rain of Ash 69.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12435 20.63 20.23%
II 31744 31.02 67.71%
III 20981 34.75 89.21%
IV 5754 38.05 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2418
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17817
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20649
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5398
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1519
Lose: Invader deck ran out 277
Lose: Adversary condition 5065
Win: Sacrifice victory 1953
Lose: Scenario condition 440
Win: Scenario condition 236
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10463
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4679

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.551 Win Model: -0.134

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.162 Win Model: 0.085
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 45091 56.37% 32.32 66.72%
2 14179 57.9% 31.97 68.11%
3 6341 48.17% 32.82 73.13%
4 3862 41.64% 36.42 76.33%
5 264 40.46% 32.84 83.71%
6 1177 32.76% 35.13 78.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-07 04:03:52 (Pacific Time)