Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 25.0% 28.0 87.5% 0.039 -0.1631 0.0
Blitz 0 357 50.85% 29.47 64.43% -0.783 -0.5252 -1.373
Dahan Insurrection 4 210 44.29% 46.94 63.81% -0.91 -0.4966 0.181
Despicable Theft 2 82 57.32% 32.35 58.54% -1.15 -0.7035 -0.467
Elemental Invocation 1 518 67.25% 26.68 61.2% -0.817 -0.3312 -1.372
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2098 21.75% 48.7 79.55% 0.172 0.4777 0.373
Powers Long Forgotten 1 91 68.13% 28.91 61.54% -0.694 -0.512 -0.747
Rituals of Terror 3 64 75.81% 35.42 57.81% -0.889 -0.7675 -0.197
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 71 81.69% 30.7 60.56% 0.24 0.6555 -0.133
Second Wave 0 1236 47.02% 27.67 76.86% -0.096 0.47 0.334
The Great River 3 267 54.31% 33.32 64.79% -0.199 1.1986 -1.157
Varied Terrains 2 14 71.43% 35.79 85.71% 0.336 0.8618 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 85 59.04% 32.53 60.0% -0.672 0.4894 -0.081

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 35073 56.76% 32.96 68.53% 0.021 1.0375 -0.071
1 Thematic 1141 60.36% 31.2 62.49% 0.283 1.4558 -0.738
2 Archipelago 39 52.63% 37.13 89.74% -0.733 0.2502 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6409 59.81% 32.22 69.7% -0.15 0.6016 -0.178
2 Coastline 1309 55.84% 34.25 71.35% -0.215 0.3873 0.05
2 Fragment 428 64.87% 45.92 76.87% 0.508 0.9554 1.553
2 Heart 171 63.16% 33.25 70.18% 0.36 0.8985 0.1
2 Opposite Shores 1797 51.62% 30.25 73.01% -0.378 0.6143 -0.472
2 Thematic 464 59.87% 31.89 64.22% -0.601 0.0972 -0.875
2 Top to Top 368 61.1% 33.21 65.22% -0.071 0.4391 -0.544
3 Archipelago 28 71.43% 34.32 57.14% 0.0 0.1732 -0.749
3 Coastline 59 66.1% 33.17 57.63% 0.814 0.0307 0.493
3 Other 217 45.83% 29.6 84.79% 0.161 0.1256 -0.427
3 Round (Default) 4449 46.85% 33.24 75.59% -0.31 0.2845 -0.169
3 Sunrise 23 60.87% 38.26 78.26% -0.267 -0.2299 0.459
3 Thematic 139 66.91% 33.91 71.94% 0.324 0.2866 0.679
4 Archipelago 38 43.24% 33.92 84.21% 0.596 -0.1155 -0.682
4 Coastline 19 31.58% 26.74 84.21% -0.419 -0.3023 0.402
4 Leaf 19 52.63% 33.11 57.89% 0.216 0.7789 -0.699
4 Other 157 46.79% 34.17 84.71% 0.818 0.5638 0.317
4 Thematic 639 40.09% 46.47 77.31% -0.737 -0.2078 -0.196
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2318 42.18% 35.24 77.96% 0.086 0.0588 0.266
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.029 -0.5496 0.0
5 Coastline 8 0.0% 48.0 87.5% 0.308 -0.2571 0.165
5 Other 180 42.46% 34.34 82.22% -0.696 -0.5281 0.585
5 Thematic 28 46.43% 39.11 82.14% 0.282 0.0057 0.532
6 Archipelago 5 0.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.0 -0.2557 0.0
6 Coastline 4 0.0% 38.5 100.0% 0.116 -0.4728 0.047
6 Other 71 32.39% 27.15 77.46% -0.161 0.6481 -0.714
6 Star 64 51.56% 37.33 71.88% -0.524 0.2596 0.08
6 Thematic 204 38.42% 39.3 80.88% -0.399 -0.6772 -0.291
6 Two Centers (Default) 286 24.91% 35.3 89.51% -0.198 -0.2924 -0.022
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Other 2 50.0% 25.0 50.0% 0.19 -0.9626 -0.099

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2277 30.7 49.67% -1.274 0.6292 -1.342
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1817 33.45 56.3% -1.256 0.4736 -0.843
All Things Weaken 2466 32.45 56.41% -1.24 0.7459 -0.954
Back Against the Wall 1753 32.03 52.94% -1.335 0.4817 -1.067
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2127 29.8 52.84% -1.502 0.5485 -1.305
Downward Spiral 2367 29.26 53.19% -1.745 0.2485 -1.286
Erosion of Will 2192 28.95 42.97% -1.874 0.2087 -1.522
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 928 36.97 81.9% 0.074 0.5149 -0.186
Memory Fades to Dust 2349 30.73 57.26% -1.286 0.7977 -1.094
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2376 29.23 49.92% -1.586 0.3526 -1.352
Promising Farmlands 2155 29.84 52.44% -1.268 0.7777 -1.262
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 647 37.4 86.55% -0.184 0.2409 0.146
Thriving Communities 2450 29.62 51.43% -1.54 0.4433 -1.193
Unnatural Proliferation 2497 31.37 53.22% -1.451 0.5133 -1.237
Untended Land Crumbles 2389 28.65 51.36% -1.623 0.3703 -1.436

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 9527 54.19% 32.62 71.19% 0.49 1.2872 -0.066
B 12241 50.77% 32.75 73.72% 0.507 1.2509 -0.329
C 10111 50.01% 32.14 72.63% 0.285 0.8534 -0.291
D 13408 56.72% 31.86 69.9% 0.468 1.264 -0.328
E 14554 52.94% 35.64 71.41% 0.718 1.3652 0.07
F 11924 51.67% 35.3 74.59% 0.835 1.5596 0.221
G 6526 52.38% 31.35 71.61% -0.005 0.7266 -0.455
H 6039 53.41% 31.99 71.95% 0.124 0.8367 -0.285
East 1849 50.93% 37.94 69.98% -0.515 0.2542 -0.176
Northeast 1265 49.8% 40.11 71.94% 0.696 1.5558 -0.567
Northwest 1343 49.96% 39.97 73.05% 0.41 1.487 0.208
Southeast 589 44.62% 37.06 74.53% -0.624 0.0822 -0.336
Southwest 588 46.84% 36.57 74.83% -0.239 0.8867 0.061
West 1938 51.62% 37.74 71.0% -0.576 0.378 -0.17

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 363 0.0% 24.14 83.47% -0.079 2.0503 0.036
Not Using Events or Tokens 27 60.0% 17.3 62.96% -1.281 -1.1062 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1256 15.82% 43.8 91.24% 1.033 0.8907 -0.138
Start of Game Growth 2035 20.16% 41.24 89.53% 0.494 -0.2665 -0.108
Unlimited Undo 6304 45.25% 36.51 79.65% 0.382 -0.222 0.827
Using Tokens but Not Events 4866 38.96% 29.78 82.7% 0.064 -0.093 0.403

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2647 100.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.27 0.1551 -0.011
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 550 100.0% 29.49 100.0% -0.616 -0.5205 -0.79
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 891 100.0% 32.8 100.0% -0.838 -0.9994 -0.422
Downpour Drenches the World 181 100.0% 35.43 100.0% 0.077 0.3297 0.077
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1292 100.0% 35.01 100.0% 0.525 0.0875 0.155
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 871 100.0% 34.35 100.0% 0.285 -0.2026 0.386
Finder of Paths Unseen 265 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.012 0.3758 0.03
Fractured Days Split the Sky 760 100.0% 38.76 100.0% -0.595 -0.5392 0.45
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 595 100.0% 34.49 100.0% 0.538 0.5062 0.177
Heart of the Wildfire 1218 100.0% 30.63 100.0% -0.402 -0.2275 -0.295
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3252 100.0% 38.1 100.0% 0.663 0.2069 0.916
Lightning's Swift Strike 477 196.07% 29.04 135.22% 0.112 0.386 -0.353
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 39 48.72% 34.13 89.74% 0.719 -0.0577 0.316
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 360 47.47% 35.99 80.56% 0.961 0.3178 0.809
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 466 44.61% 42.0 79.83% 0.221 -0.0453 0.344
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2722 100.0% 34.89 100.0% 0.004 -0.2628 -0.155
Many Minds Move as One 841 100.0% 32.04 100.0% 0.297 -0.3055 0.291
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1759 100.0% 36.51 100.0% -0.35 -0.5352 0.092
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 993 100.0% 31.75 100.0% -0.109 -0.0884 0.354
River Surges in Sunlight 1163 125.04% 37.56 114.19% -0.452 -0.486 0.503
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 500 45.84% 32.54 69.6% -0.401 0.0299 -0.867
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 48 45.83% 36.94 72.92% -0.091 -0.391 -0.264
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1204 100.0% 35.85 100.0% -0.158 -0.2106 -0.159
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 149 272.19% 26.93 206.04% 0.631 1.0408 -0.764
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 20 65.0% 28.95 65.0% -0.585 -0.5781 0.334
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 19 47.37% 33.95 73.68% 0.045 -0.3014 -0.41
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 262 51.72% 31.1 70.61% -0.302 -0.2825 -1.073
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 236 50.21% 29.08 70.76% 0.122 0.3047 -0.056
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1054 100.0% 37.36 100.0% 0.271 -0.0158 0.617
Shifting Memory of Ages 748 100.0% 31.05 100.0% -0.241 -0.1663 -0.407
Shroud of Silent Mist 973 100.0% 29.03 100.0% 0.036 0.2727 -0.089
Starlight Seeks its Form 779 100.0% 36.6 100.0% 0.372 0.2329 0.935
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2595 100.0% 33.93 100.0% 0.136 -0.0458 -0.488
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1090 100.0% 36.49 100.0% 0.079 0.2633 0.78
Thunderspeaker 996 100.0% 34.41 100.0% -0.307 -0.2426 0.052
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1201 100.0% 30.79 100.0% -0.52 -0.6111 -0.252
Vital Strength of the Earth 519 126.35% 27.11 118.5% 0.132 0.9406 -0.596
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 44 68.18% 41.05 68.18% 0.13 0.5165 -0.083
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 271 54.44% 29.83 69.74% -0.589 0.5857 -0.185

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 86.21%
Lava Flows 89.35%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.95%
Rain of Ash 69.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8920 22.56 23.31%
II 25831 30.98 68.64%
III 16858 34.53 89.3%
IV 4559 37.77 99.82%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2003
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14316
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 17072
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4281
Lose: Invader deck ran out 217
Lose: Adversary condition 4072
Win: Sacrifice victory 1563
Lose: Scenario condition 347
Win: Scenario condition 179
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8349
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3769

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.998 Win Model: -0.243

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.103 Win Model: 0.15
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 36306 56.9% 32.92 68.34%
2 11031 58.32% 32.7 70.44%
3 4869 47.65% 33.16 75.58%
4 3199 41.34% 37.45 78.59%
5 131 39.23% 30.5 83.21%
6 632 32.38% 35.79 83.7%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)