Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 41 63.41% 24.37 46.34% -1.022 -0.6656 0.0
Blitz 0 403 49.62% 29.1 64.02% -1.219 -0.7198 -1.4
Dahan Insurrection 4 245 41.22% 47.97 67.35% 0.272 0.3924 0.298
Despicable Theft 2 99 55.56% 32.68 59.6% -0.24 0.2681 -0.802
Elemental Invocation 1 549 66.18% 26.83 62.11% -0.108 0.5007 -1.367
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2372 22.06% 48.47 78.71% -0.131 0.0928 0.326
Powers Long Forgotten 1 100 67.0% 28.84 64.0% 0.203 0.6824 -0.705
Rituals of Terror 3 81 72.15% 37.48 58.02% -0.766 -0.9923 -0.169
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 79 81.01% 31.66 63.29% -0.072 0.125 0.14
Second Wave 0 1452 45.97% 27.79 77.27% -0.492 0.0986 0.449
The Great River 3 299 54.18% 33.66 64.88% -1.165 0.5205 -1.199
Varied Terrains 2 45 77.78% 34.56 71.11% -0.157 0.5834 -0.403
Ward the Shores 2 100 60.2% 32.63 60.0% -0.078 0.8128 -0.302

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 39454 56.84% 33.04 68.39% 0.568 1.0711 0.175
1 Thematic 1302 58.32% 32.2 63.75% 0.824 1.7027 -0.559
2 Archipelago 45 56.82% 36.69 88.89% 0.278 1.1071 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7261 59.82% 32.23 69.45% 0.124 0.518 -0.087
2 Coastline 1481 56.62% 34.25 71.03% 0.301 0.3691 0.221
2 Fragment 467 65.67% 45.3 75.8% 0.408 0.596 1.525
2 Heart 191 64.92% 33.16 67.54% -0.331 0.1232 0.062
2 Opposite Shores 2015 52.15% 30.18 71.91% -0.073 0.2996 -0.466
2 Thematic 511 60.43% 31.8 63.01% -0.796 -0.0606 -0.82
2 Top to Top 445 60.41% 33.96 67.19% 0.422 0.4389 -0.261
3 Archipelago 39 64.1% 33.92 66.67% 0.245 -0.0305 -0.2
3 Coastline 66 65.15% 33.17 62.12% 0.66 0.3068 0.686
3 Other 241 46.25% 29.32 83.4% 0.283 -0.4976 -0.274
3 Round (Default) 5095 47.3% 33.54 75.13% -0.12 0.0568 -0.167
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% -0.214 -0.2045 0.48
3 Thematic 166 66.27% 33.9 71.08% -0.44 -0.0571 0.369
4 Archipelago 45 36.36% 33.07 84.44% 0.71 0.8605 -0.709
4 Coastline 24 25.0% 31.96 87.5% 0.253 0.0978 0.781
4 Leaf 22 50.0% 32.18 63.64% 0.116 0.0788 -0.773
4 Other 165 45.12% 34.13 84.85% -0.298 -0.9804 0.312
4 Thematic 660 39.42% 46.28 76.97% -1.166 -1.1591 -0.487
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2569 42.28% 35.3 77.97% -0.723 -0.6307 0.015
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2445 0.0
5 Coastline 16 6.25% 52.0 87.5% 0.163 -0.5019 0.318
5 Other 227 43.36% 34.35 82.38% 0.071 -0.5393 0.64
5 Thematic 31 45.16% 43.48 83.87% 0.496 0.2096 0.572
6 Archipelago 11 18.18% 44.82 100.0% 0.108 0.2291 0.0
6 Coastline 6 0.0% 46.67 100.0% 0.037 -0.6787 0.054
6 Other 109 31.19% 28.23 80.73% -0.547 -0.9099 -0.988
6 Star 89 46.07% 37.24 74.16% -0.293 0.6194 -0.657
6 Thematic 284 39.22% 42.15 82.04% 0.033 0.1507 -0.242
6 Two Centers (Default) 386 26.75% 35.8 88.08% -1.049 -0.737 -0.646
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 0.066 0.0
7 Other 5 60.0% 28.8 80.0% 0.014 -0.3389 -0.179

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2551 30.82 49.16% -1.643 0.351 -1.33
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2056 33.8 56.71% -1.335 0.4401 -0.799
All Things Weaken 2781 32.49 56.42% -1.067 0.9925 -0.958
Back Against the Wall 1971 32.28 52.56% -1.693 0.2418 -1.111
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2390 29.97 52.59% -1.492 0.5873 -1.302
Downward Spiral 2676 29.51 52.95% -1.528 0.3962 -1.275
Erosion of Will 2490 29.07 43.25% -1.636 0.4547 -1.531
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1036 36.89 81.95% -0.18 0.3202 -0.194
Memory Fades to Dust 2667 30.76 56.81% -1.396 0.7146 -1.084
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2708 29.33 49.3% -1.596 0.3519 -1.335
Promising Farmlands 2438 30.27 52.67% -1.552 0.4577 -1.214
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 730 37.59 86.71% 0.235 0.705 0.207
Thriving Communities 2749 29.74 51.33% -1.469 0.5966 -1.215
Unnatural Proliferation 2843 31.5 53.22% -1.4 0.5415 -1.245
Untended Land Crumbles 2714 28.77 51.03% -1.711 0.3262 -1.4

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 10822 53.84% 32.73 71.23% 0.172 0.863 -0.097
B 13847 51.01% 32.84 73.51% 0.198 0.8619 -0.316
C 11479 50.03% 32.32 72.56% 0.337 0.7736 -0.389
D 15144 56.82% 31.93 69.5% -0.046 0.6304 -0.386
E 16811 52.82% 35.8 71.42% 0.487 0.9794 0.044
F 13495 51.54% 35.3 74.42% 0.304 0.9478 0.153
G 7433 52.5% 31.54 71.55% 0.289 0.8634 -0.502
H 6896 53.42% 32.1 72.03% -0.041 0.5807 -0.309
East 2077 50.27% 38.35 70.2% -0.89 -0.3162 -0.295
Northeast 1431 48.77% 40.61 72.82% 0.108 0.7021 -0.577
Northwest 1538 49.24% 40.46 73.41% 0.088 0.6183 0.337
Southeast 709 44.03% 38.52 75.04% -0.418 0.2331 -0.337
Southwest 722 46.31% 37.69 75.21% -0.141 0.7693 -0.091
West 2198 50.9% 38.13 71.16% 0.205 0.9645 -0.325

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 424 0.0% 24.08 84.43% -0.271 1.9212 0.386
Not Using Events or Tokens 33 56.0% 17.61 66.67% -0.317 -0.0739 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1368 15.81% 43.92 91.52% 1.059 0.0245 -0.274
Start of Game Growth 2210 20.11% 41.42 89.73% 0.621 0.102 -0.046
Unlimited Undo 6985 45.3% 36.61 79.46% 0.695 0.1813 0.766
Using Tokens but Not Events 5508 38.81% 29.56 82.14% -0.545 -0.3787 0.244

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3029 100.0% 35.08 100.0% 0.229 0.1294 -0.072
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 633 100.0% 29.6 100.0% -0.32 -0.2763 -0.742
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1019 100.0% 32.75 100.0% 0.026 -0.1796 -0.394
Downpour Drenches the World 385 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.035 0.2917 -0.056
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1464 100.0% 35.23 100.0% 0.137 -0.3508 0.15
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 993 100.0% 34.12 100.0% 0.198 -0.3524 0.315
Finder of Paths Unseen 507 100.0% 37.12 100.0% 0.206 0.5408 0.331
Fractured Days Split the Sky 843 100.0% 38.91 100.0% 0.381 0.3835 0.417
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 743 100.0% 34.39 100.0% -0.172 -0.274 0.023
Heart of the Wildfire 1397 100.0% 30.76 100.0% -0.619 -0.2559 -0.339
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3659 100.0% 38.33 100.0% 0.812 0.2295 0.849
Lightning's Swift Strike 554 199.64% 29.51 137.18% -0.405 -0.0369 -0.254
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 133 53.38% 38.44 79.7% 0.236 -0.5111 0.408
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 388 46.88% 36.06 80.93% 0.058 -0.48 0.642
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 529 44.59% 42.37 80.15% 0.54 0.0618 0.404
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2999 100.0% 34.78 100.0% -0.611 -0.7116 -0.217
Many Minds Move as One 962 100.0% 32.41 100.0% 0.35 -0.3127 0.228
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1985 100.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.029 -0.1151 0.179
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1157 100.0% 32.04 100.0% 0.065 0.0118 0.191
River Surges in Sunlight 1250 129.81% 37.49 116.0% -0.579 -0.6766 0.426
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 549 44.36% 32.81 69.95% -0.491 -0.1043 -0.982
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 137 45.99% 43.34 74.45% 0.705 0.3679 0.597
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1369 100.0% 36.24 100.0% 0.898 0.7698 -0.114
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 157 286.88% 26.39 220.38% 0.017 0.4447 -0.788
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 58 68.42% 31.17 50.0% -0.997 -0.7814 0.23
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 48 62.5% 37.19 79.17% 0.807 0.9218 0.192
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 291 51.38% 31.1 72.51% 0.102 0.1085 -1.18
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 243 49.59% 29.26 71.19% 0.519 0.6269 -0.135
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1181 100.0% 37.37 100.0% 0.183 -0.0238 0.423
Shifting Memory of Ages 893 100.0% 31.38 100.0% -0.319 -0.1225 -0.575
Shroud of Silent Mist 1073 100.0% 28.89 100.0% -0.453 -0.3223 -0.043
Starlight Seeks its Form 1042 100.0% 36.92 100.0% -0.092 -0.174 0.752
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2869 100.0% 34.14 100.0% -0.133 -0.403 -0.448
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1233 100.0% 36.66 100.0% 0.186 0.2854 0.671
Thunderspeaker 1153 100.0% 34.64 100.0% 0.023 0.0166 0.096
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1348 100.0% 30.77 100.0% 0.084 -0.1271 -0.265
Vital Strength of the Earth 573 133.28% 27.3 122.86% -0.266 0.6153 -0.516
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 111 54.05% 36.77 61.26% -0.999 -0.5868 -0.106
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 299 53.02% 29.87 70.57% -0.025 1.0853 -0.224

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 86.11%
Lava Flows 89.08%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.93%
Rain of Ash 68.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10120 22.67 22.95%
II 29059 31.1 68.41%
III 19119 34.68 89.34%
IV 5168 37.93 99.85%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2231
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16244
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19097
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4851
Lose: Invader deck ran out 250
Lose: Adversary condition 4613
Win: Sacrifice victory 1803
Lose: Scenario condition 398
Win: Scenario condition 218
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9483
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4278

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.12 Win Model: -0.234

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.19 Win Model: 0.338
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 40872 56.92% 33.02 68.21%
2 12453 58.55% 32.7 70.08%
3 5577 48.03% 33.42 75.18%
4 3492 41.09% 37.35 78.61%
5 187 39.78% 32.47 82.89%
6 885 32.96% 37.3 84.18%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-25 02:29:02 (Pacific Time)