Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 46 60.87% 24.93 50.0% 0.235 0.1511 0.0
Blitz 0 457 50.33% 28.11 61.71% -0.557 -0.3832 -1.197
Dahan Insurrection 4 263 41.06% 47.04 66.16% -0.304 -0.4528 0.342
Despicable Theft 2 112 51.79% 31.15 56.25% -0.93 -0.2757 -0.804
Elemental Invocation 1 570 65.14% 26.51 61.23% -0.765 -0.0603 -1.329
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2555 22.58% 47.61 76.99% 0.348 -0.2574 0.363
Powers Long Forgotten 1 121 61.98% 26.39 56.2% -1.318 -0.8236 -0.604
Rituals of Terror 3 90 69.32% 34.39 52.22% -1.924 -2.0063 -0.147
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 90 81.11% 31.52 61.11% -0.275 0.6519 0.076
Second Wave 0 1652 45.03% 27.35 76.09% 0.101 0.163 0.38
The Great River 3 312 53.21% 33.48 65.06% 0.15 1.528 -1.064
Varied Terrains 2 63 65.08% 30.71 63.49% -0.674 -0.097 -0.819
Ward the Shores 2 110 56.48% 31.65 59.09% -0.381 0.8149 -0.206

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 42413 56.45% 32.54 67.33% 0.418 0.666 0.299
1 Thematic 1400 56.64% 31.78 62.21% 0.124 0.7757 -0.448
2 Archipelago 56 56.36% 33.38 80.36% -0.282 0.2287 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7942 59.15% 31.76 68.24% 0.293 0.4796 -0.017
2 Coastline 1624 55.88% 33.89 70.2% 0.419 0.4724 0.303
2 Fragment 500 65.33% 44.76 74.2% 0.523 0.3895 1.604
2 Heart 223 63.23% 32.69 64.13% -0.142 -0.3598 -0.083
2 Opposite Shores 2201 52.79% 29.99 70.6% 0.23 0.4175 -0.345
2 Thematic 576 59.16% 30.82 60.07% -0.298 0.2923 -0.653
2 Top to Top 503 59.0% 33.42 66.6% 0.159 0.2545 -0.157
3 Archipelago 44 63.64% 32.75 61.36% -0.541 -1.4872 -1.067
3 Coastline 69 63.77% 32.57 60.87% -0.463 -0.846 0.705
3 Other 256 46.67% 28.79 81.64% 0.289 0.0207 -0.131
3 Round (Default) 5587 47.57% 33.09 73.6% -0.019 -0.0219 -0.088
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% 0.0 0.38 0.51
3 Thematic 184 64.13% 32.11 66.3% -0.932 -1.0427 -0.081
4 Archipelago 55 35.19% 31.93 81.82% 0.259 0.4862 -0.576
4 Coastline 27 29.63% 30.41 85.19% 0.325 0.427 0.648
4 Leaf 25 56.0% 32.48 68.0% 0.426 0.1311 -0.697
4 Other 178 42.94% 33.19 84.27% 0.751 -0.1097 0.575
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.333 0.012 0.0
4 Thematic 685 40.18% 45.62 76.2% 0.31 0.2756 -0.344
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2785 42.6% 34.77 76.19% -0.371 -0.5409 0.062
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1617 0.0
5 Coastline 23 8.7% 48.39 86.96% 0.309 0.1603 -0.1
5 Other 279 42.45% 33.37 82.44% 0.764 0.1916 0.612
5 Thematic 32 43.75% 45.28 84.38% 0.705 0.2977 0.732
6 Archipelago 12 16.67% 41.08 91.67% -1.158 -1.5304 0.0
6 Coastline 10 0.0% 50.2 90.0% -0.257 -0.9856 0.136
6 Other 136 31.62% 28.66 81.62% 0.529 0.051 -0.546
6 Star 113 48.67% 34.48 69.03% -1.143 -0.7503 -0.634
6 Thematic 339 38.76% 40.36 77.58% -1.085 -0.675 -0.248
6 Two Centers (Default) 476 26.69% 33.54 82.35% -0.491 -0.2789 -1.064
7 Archipelago 3 33.33% 20.67 66.67% -0.592 -1.1052 0.0
7 Other 11 27.27% 28.55 72.73% 0.312 -0.5919 -0.24

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2694 30.63 48.7% -0.522 -0.2076 -1.194
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2185 33.51 56.2% -0.104 0.0291 -0.646
All Things Weaken 2971 32.43 56.04% -0.075 0.4468 -0.778
Attenuated Essence 53 24.74 39.62% -0.502 -0.1414 -1.937
Back Against the Wall 2104 32.2 52.33% 0.009 0.2588 -0.943
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 25.42 42.25% -0.342 0.2118 -1.509
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 35.46 50.0% 0.046 0.48 -0.97
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2531 29.78 52.11% -0.299 0.3 -1.15
Downward Spiral 2852 29.23 52.7% -0.358 0.0476 -1.1
Erosion of Will 2628 28.93 42.96% -0.604 -0.0678 -1.383
Intensifying Exploitation 65 26.92 43.08% -0.301 0.2142 -1.514
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1104 36.77 81.07% 0.559 0.1163 -0.076
Memory Fades to Dust 2837 30.53 56.05% -0.325 0.209 -0.97
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2868 29.24 49.16% -0.262 0.0903 -1.155
Promising Farmlands 2597 30.04 52.41% -0.134 0.5396 -1.077
Shattered Fragments of Power 57 34.91 56.14% 0.439 0.7407 -0.888
Slow Dissolution of Will 67 26.51 41.79% -0.566 0.081 -1.174
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 785 37.55 85.86% 0.983 0.3169 0.291
The Border of Life and Death 15 22.87 60.0% 0.134 0.109 -0.164
Thriving Communities 2932 29.54 50.72% -0.529 0.0482 -1.055
Thriving Crops 28 32.93 71.43% 0.586 0.8341 0.416
Unnatural Proliferation 3047 31.42 52.81% -0.129 0.248 -1.094
Untended Land Crumbles 2911 28.49 50.6% -0.401 0.029 -1.257

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 11907 53.38% 32.11 69.55% -0.108 0.7513 -0.163
B 15127 50.73% 32.32 72.0% 0.188 0.9674 -0.358
C 12581 49.8% 31.89 71.44% 0.212 0.8643 -0.413
D 16486 56.34% 31.41 68.13% 0.072 0.8874 -0.432
E 18427 52.5% 35.31 70.45% 0.571 1.2123 0.032
F 14665 51.34% 34.67 73.16% 0.433 1.1649 0.109
G 8158 51.96% 30.99 70.23% -0.086 0.6705 -0.583
H 7549 52.6% 31.57 70.78% -0.113 0.5543 -0.453
East 2263 49.62% 37.31 68.05% -0.209 0.4182 -0.308
Northeast 1565 48.16% 39.46 70.29% -0.781 0.1165 -0.516
Northwest 1680 48.52% 39.66 71.43% 0.335 0.9796 0.276
Southeast 807 43.89% 37.4 72.49% 0.49 1.1711 -0.335
Southwest 816 45.88% 36.61 72.3% -0.206 0.9744 0.091
West 2401 50.21% 37.22 68.97% -0.805 0.1868 -0.349

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 467 0.0% 23.34 81.58% -0.759 0.2039 0.428
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 50.0% 18.31 69.44% 0.556 0.8556 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1478 16.14% 43.12 89.38% 0.117 -0.417 -0.435
Start of Game Growth 2351 20.11% 40.84 88.13% 0.416 0.0626 -0.039
Unlimited Undo 7696 45.54% 35.88 77.2% 0.093 0.0599 0.697
Using Tokens but Not Events 6094 38.81% 28.95 80.51% 0.187 0.1251 0.205

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3299 100.0% 34.71 100.0% 0.616 0.4741 -0.023
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 702 100.0% 28.86 100.0% -0.444 -0.3436 -0.687
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1120 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.28 0.0951 -0.286
Downpour Drenches the World 545 100.0% 33.57 100.0% -0.008 0.1933 0.032
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 283 100.0% 32.63 100.0% 0.427 -0.2357 0.051
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1597 100.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.422 -0.1689 0.307
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1109 100.0% 33.29 100.0% 0.493 0.0458 0.259
Finder of Paths Unseen 694 100.0% 34.57 100.0% -0.128 0.5699 0.297
Fractured Days Split the Sky 913 100.0% 37.9 100.0% -0.588 0.1336 0.287
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 868 100.0% 33.43 100.0% 0.164 0.0525 0.055
Heart of the Wildfire 1510 100.0% 30.34 100.0% -0.085 0.1786 -0.3
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3902 100.0% 37.91 100.0% 0.481 0.0093 0.858
Lightning's Swift Strike 610 202.09% 29.43 145.08% 0.301 0.5169 -0.19
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 215 52.61% 35.6 68.37% 0.105 -0.6303 -0.29
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 419 47.7% 35.7 79.71% 0.627 0.2972 0.606
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 572 44.04% 42.02 78.67% 0.096 -0.0985 0.427
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3189 100.0% 34.29 100.0% -0.243 -0.4275 -0.217
Many Minds Move as One 1067 100.0% 31.44 100.0% -0.112 -0.3499 0.345
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2160 100.0% 35.99 100.0% -0.29 -0.3157 0.154
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1269 100.0% 31.84 100.0% 0.454 0.3368 0.189
River Surges in Sunlight 1319 131.38% 37.19 119.26% 0.676 0.6557 0.517
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 581 44.76% 32.07 69.19% 0.009 0.2319 -0.916
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 207 50.97% 39.33 63.77% -0.43 -0.5883 0.276
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1501 100.0% 35.54 100.0% 0.116 -0.0879 -0.072
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 188 273.3% 25.48 215.43% -0.632 -0.194 -0.816
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 67 66.67% 30.34 55.22% 0.601 0.5755 0.241
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 63 55.56% 33.0 73.02% -0.576 -0.536 0.073
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 320 51.1% 30.32 70.31% -0.393 -0.4138 -1.163
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 253 50.4% 28.95 70.36% -0.337 -0.2591 -0.181
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1299 102.23% 36.8 101.85% 0.301 0.1588 0.545
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 48 39.58% 24.46 50.0% -0.332 -0.6325 -0.274
Shifting Memory of Ages 1016 100.0% 30.3 100.0% -0.4 -0.023 -0.453
Shroud of Silent Mist 1170 100.0% 28.02 100.0% -0.438 -0.1133 -0.151
Starlight Seeks its Form 1240 100.0% 36.49 100.0% 0.47 0.2096 0.753
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3059 100.0% 33.63 100.0% 0.146 -0.3605 -0.349
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1324 100.0% 36.0 100.0% 0.163 0.2092 0.719
Thunderspeaker 1251 101.84% 34.14 101.04% 0.04 0.006 0.175
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 34 32.35% 28.12 61.76% 0.081 0.0911 0.169
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1485 100.0% 29.89 100.0% -0.564 -0.5197 -0.223
Vital Strength of the Earth 629 135.4% 26.68 127.03% -0.435 0.12 -0.41
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 153 56.21% 35.08 62.09% 0.577 0.8158 0.091
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 336 53.43% 28.59 66.67% -1.049 -0.1439 -0.338

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 85.98%
Lava Flows 88.94%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.95%
Rain of Ash 69.16%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11752 21.26 20.96%
II 31002 31.05 67.91%
III 20453 34.73 89.23%
IV 5599 38.01 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2366
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17368
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20224
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5252
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1025
Lose: Invader deck ran out 271
Lose: Adversary condition 4957
Win: Sacrifice victory 1913
Lose: Scenario condition 432
Win: Scenario condition 232
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10202
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4564

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.583 Win Model: -0.158

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.096 Win Model: 0.157
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43950 56.49% 32.52 67.13%
2 13652 58.05% 32.27 68.79%
3 6107 48.22% 32.92 73.54%
4 3760 41.36% 36.64 77.05%
5 245 38.93% 32.6 83.67%
6 1092 32.84% 35.41 79.58%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-25 04:12:57 (Pacific Time)