Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 49 59.18% 24.1 48.98% 0.764 0.5394 -0.211
Blitz 0 467 49.67% 27.86 61.24% -0.42 -0.2748 -1.164
Dahan Insurrection 4 269 40.89% 46.67 65.43% -0.145 -0.397 0.408
Despicable Theft 2 115 50.43% 31.03 56.52% -0.819 -0.0492 -0.771
Elemental Invocation 1 579 64.82% 26.43 60.79% -0.718 0.0398 -1.262
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2597 22.44% 47.51 76.78% 0.491 -0.1362 0.393
Powers Long Forgotten 1 130 62.31% 25.56 53.08% -1.441 -0.92 -0.573
Rituals of Terror 3 96 68.09% 33.04 50.0% -1.628 -1.5787 -0.139
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 92 80.43% 30.96 59.78% -0.45 0.5565 0.099
Second Wave 0 1710 44.69% 27.21 75.96% 0.21 0.2694 0.39
The Great River 3 319 52.35% 33.3 65.2% -0.034 1.3131 -1.062
Varied Terrains 2 76 64.47% 30.42 64.47% -0.006 0.52 -0.534
Ward the Shores 2 115 54.87% 30.97 57.39% -0.847 0.3032 -0.292

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 43206 56.35% 32.37 67.01% 0.29 0.4928 0.33
1 Thematic 1417 56.45% 31.71 61.89% -0.153 0.4596 -0.403
2 Archipelago 57 55.36% 33.51 80.7% -0.487 -0.1503 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 8160 59.06% 31.58 67.82% 0.265 0.4061 -0.014
2 Coastline 1675 55.43% 33.7 69.91% 0.456 0.4566 0.288
2 Fragment 512 65.36% 44.37 73.44% 0.399 0.3095 1.596
2 Heart 231 62.77% 32.67 64.5% 0.05 -0.2975 0.019
2 Opposite Shores 2267 52.79% 29.9 70.27% 0.244 0.328 -0.314
2 Thematic 599 58.89% 30.24 58.26% -0.578 0.0746 -0.633
2 Top to Top 523 59.42% 33.43 66.35% 0.393 0.3596 -0.119
3 Archipelago 44 63.64% 32.75 61.36% -0.617 -2.0415 -1.058
3 Coastline 70 62.86% 32.1 60.0% -0.086 -0.6073 0.716
3 Other 263 46.95% 28.9 81.37% 0.341 0.5613 -0.137
3 Round (Default) 5757 47.57% 32.96 73.22% 0.22 0.0863 -0.112
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% 0.0 0.0591 0.495
3 Thematic 190 63.16% 31.97 65.79% -0.276 -0.2539 -0.203
4 Archipelago 55 35.19% 31.93 81.82% 0.131 -0.4646 -0.578
4 Coastline 27 29.63% 30.41 85.19% -0.055 0.2218 0.652
4 Leaf 26 53.85% 31.23 65.38% -0.089 -0.7702 -0.744
4 Other 182 43.65% 32.82 84.62% 0.921 -0.1287 0.574
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.358 -0.1013 0.0
4 Thematic 693 40.0% 45.38 75.9% -0.307 -0.4091 -0.387
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2850 42.82% 34.67 75.61% -0.358 -0.589 0.012
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.0355 0.0
5 Coastline 23 8.7% 48.39 86.96% 0.255 0.0346 -0.101
5 Other 297 43.24% 33.67 83.16% 1.214 0.6569 0.694
5 Thematic 33 45.45% 46.09 84.85% 0.833 0.7766 0.745
6 Archipelago 12 16.67% 41.08 91.67% -0.956 -0.687 0.0
6 Coastline 10 0.0% 50.2 90.0% -0.129 -0.8791 0.137
6 Other 140 31.43% 28.71 81.43% 0.252 -0.1662 -0.497
6 Star 120 50.0% 33.71 68.33% -1.368 -1.3381 -0.695
6 Thematic 359 39.39% 40.36 77.16% -0.626 -0.2041 -0.15
6 Two Centers (Default) 508 25.99% 32.7 80.51% -0.26 -0.3055 -1.274
7 Archipelago 4 25.0% 15.5 50.0% -0.863 -1.2154 0.0
7 Other 12 33.33% 26.17 66.67% 0.225 -0.7463 -0.215

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2727 30.57 48.55% -0.4 -0.2102 -1.155
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2223 33.49 56.23% 0.002 -0.0519 -0.612
All Things Weaken 3017 32.31 55.72% -0.088 0.3126 -0.75
Attenuated Essence 76 26.91 43.42% -0.142 -0.0205 -1.701
Back Against the Wall 2143 32.07 52.22% -0.084 0.0045 -0.912
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 101 26.56 47.52% 0.115 0.4235 -1.231
Burn Brightest Before the End 72 35.71 51.39% 0.179 0.3998 -0.756
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2576 29.68 51.86% -0.116 0.3177 -1.132
Downward Spiral 2894 29.27 52.66% -0.127 0.1342 -1.077
Erosion of Will 2673 28.92 42.99% -0.234 0.0992 -1.357
Intensifying Exploitation 89 27.38 41.57% -0.212 0.1119 -1.218
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1132 36.56 80.83% 0.466 -0.0636 -0.078
Memory Fades to Dust 2890 30.42 55.95% -0.297 0.1083 -0.94
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2922 29.14 49.01% -0.095 0.1479 -1.133
Promising Farmlands 2638 29.99 52.16% -0.246 0.2635 -1.059
Shattered Fragments of Power 71 34.06 54.93% 0.449 0.538 -0.881
Slow Dissolution of Will 88 24.86 38.64% -0.502 -0.0568 -1.196
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 794 37.52 85.77% 1.086 0.4476 0.34
The Border of Life and Death 25 32.72 76.0% 0.758 0.4262 -0.002
Thriving Communities 2985 29.44 50.59% -0.361 0.0183 -1.036
Thriving Crops 38 36.13 76.32% 1.012 0.9847 0.674
Unnatural Proliferation 3098 31.34 52.87% -0.117 0.1005 -1.061
Untended Land Crumbles 2962 28.46 50.44% -0.424 -0.1409 -1.22

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 12213 53.38% 31.95 69.07% -0.116 0.7335 -0.18
B 15485 50.67% 32.17 71.69% 0.14 0.9543 -0.364
C 12938 49.79% 31.72 71.02% 0.171 0.8542 -0.433
D 16895 56.19% 31.27 67.82% 0.111 0.9341 -0.422
E 18876 52.34% 35.13 70.1% 0.501 1.1473 0.025
F 15033 51.33% 34.48 72.74% 0.378 1.1239 0.11
G 8382 51.81% 30.87 69.88% -0.14 0.6205 -0.59
H 7797 52.48% 31.35 70.3% -0.302 0.3839 -0.487
East 2321 49.41% 37.14 67.56% -0.054 0.5885 -0.334
Northeast 1610 47.99% 39.23 69.69% -0.649 0.1534 -0.44
Northwest 1723 48.59% 39.43 70.86% 0.215 0.9695 0.296
Southeast 836 44.04% 37.35 72.13% 0.357 1.0961 -0.334
Southwest 852 45.94% 36.35 71.36% -0.299 0.7841 0.043
West 2463 50.08% 36.94 68.29% -0.677 0.2712 -0.355

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 472 0.0% 23.39 81.57% -0.17 0.657 0.439
Not Using Events or Tokens 36 50.0% 18.31 69.44% 0.707 1.0396 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1505 16.16% 42.74 88.7% 0.136 -0.4422 -0.509
Start of Game Growth 2395 20.06% 40.54 87.64% 0.123 -0.151 -0.066
Unlimited Undo 7890 45.64% 35.69 76.6% 0.025 0.0143 0.698
Using Tokens but Not Events 6254 38.89% 28.83 79.96% 0.236 0.1668 0.206

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3383 100.0% 34.57 100.0% 0.627 0.4772 -0.007
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 727 100.0% 28.55 100.0% -0.583 -0.4695 -0.615
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1153 100.0% 32.07 100.0% -0.022 -0.1911 -0.256
Downpour Drenches the World 594 100.0% 32.61 100.0% -0.232 -0.0375 -0.033
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 392 100.0% 31.7 100.0% 0.44 -0.3601 -0.139
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1625 100.0% 34.74 100.0% 0.489 -0.0965 0.323
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1136 100.0% 33.12 100.0% 0.467 -0.0194 0.265
Finder of Paths Unseen 755 100.0% 34.12 100.0% -0.135 0.5375 0.271
Fractured Days Split the Sky 933 100.0% 37.79 100.0% -0.15 0.4974 0.368
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 911 100.0% 33.28 100.0% 0.222 0.1338 0.087
Heart of the Wildfire 1527 100.0% 30.24 100.0% -0.015 0.2352 -0.275
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3986 100.0% 37.83 100.0% 0.647 0.224 0.848
Lightning's Swift Strike 640 201.69% 29.24 145.94% -0.022 0.2067 -0.219
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 235 52.38% 34.85 65.96% -0.276 -0.9368 -0.37
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 433 48.01% 35.83 79.68% 0.629 0.4072 0.674
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 590 43.71% 41.89 78.64% 0.193 0.0493 0.416
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 3261 100.0% 34.18 100.0% -0.167 -0.308 -0.165
Many Minds Move as One 1094 100.0% 31.23 100.0% -0.087 -0.2734 0.369
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 2211 100.0% 35.71 100.0% -0.258 -0.2572 0.164
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1314 100.0% 31.74 100.0% 0.317 0.1679 0.188
River Surges in Sunlight 1339 132.1% 37.22 119.94% 0.336 0.3829 0.551
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 600 45.18% 31.89 69.0% 0.217 0.492 -0.902
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 221 50.45% 38.93 63.35% -0.258 -0.3707 0.266
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1536 100.0% 35.24 100.0% -0.161 -0.3753 -0.075
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 193 275.51% 25.39 218.13% -0.525 -0.0375 -0.804
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 70 65.22% 30.23 55.71% 0.59 0.5654 0.222
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 67 55.22% 32.13 71.64% -0.447 -0.4977 0.145
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 330 50.46% 30.15 70.0% -0.428 -0.4981 -1.211
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 258 50.58% 28.77 69.38% -0.442 -0.3708 -0.231
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1323 102.95% 36.72 102.27% 0.129 0.0152 0.589
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 62 37.1% 25.66 51.61% -0.067 -0.5054 -0.138
Shifting Memory of Ages 1070 100.0% 30.12 100.0% -0.347 0.0426 -0.541
Shroud of Silent Mist 1194 100.0% 27.9 100.0% -0.177 0.1248 -0.212
Starlight Seeks its Form 1305 100.0% 36.33 100.0% 0.366 0.1035 0.77
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 3116 100.0% 33.44 100.0% 0.026 -0.4752 -0.321
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1363 100.0% 35.77 100.0% 0.363 0.4195 0.713
Thunderspeaker 1270 102.05% 34.03 101.57% 0.005 -0.0088 0.157
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 47 44.68% 28.11 57.45% 0.215 0.0967 0.167
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1557 100.0% 29.8 100.0% -0.191 -0.1433 -0.167
Vital Strength of the Earth 641 136.45% 26.47 128.55% -0.263 0.2888 -0.407
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 169 55.03% 33.64 59.76% 0.129 0.4009 0.078
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 341 53.53% 28.57 66.28% -1.071 -0.1837 -0.442

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 85.96%
Lava Flows 88.9%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.92%
Rain of Ash 69.23%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12249 20.77 20.41%
II 31541 31.02 67.74%
III 20850 34.74 89.21%
IV 5721 38.04 99.83%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2402
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17706
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20529
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5365
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1398
Lose: Invader deck ran out 274
Lose: Adversary condition 5035
Win: Sacrifice victory 1941
Lose: Scenario condition 438
Win: Scenario condition 235
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10384
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4654

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.547 Win Model: -0.135

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.131 Win Model: 0.076
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 44767 56.39% 32.36 66.81%
2 14048 57.93% 32.08 68.34%
3 6288 48.19% 32.8 73.17%
4 3840 41.51% 36.48 76.56%
5 262 40.61% 32.82 83.97%
6 1156 32.84% 34.97 78.46%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-04 02:47:44 (Pacific Time)