Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 196 57.65% 29.36 -2.396 58.67% -1.052 -0.4772
Dahan Insurrection 4 123 43.9% 47.82 6.524 61.79% -0.805 -0.4043
Despicable Theft 2 34 47.06% 34.47 0.99 70.59% -0.77 -0.4657
Elemental Invocation 1 375 66.49% 26.95 -2.566 64.0% -0.677 -0.2423
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1216 21.49% 49.78 6.362 81.33% 0.215 0.5803
Powers Long Forgotten 1 46 69.57% 27.33 -2.534 65.22% -0.585 -0.143
Rituals of Terror 3 26 70.83% 33.19 1.461 69.23% -0.497 0.1462
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 38 81.58% 28.92 -0.039 63.16% -0.645 -0.0045
Second Wave 0 467 49.67% 28.01 -2.019 76.87% -0.431 -0.0029
The Great River 3 172 49.42% 31.63 0.264 66.28% -0.842 0.6083
Ward the Shores 2 38 50.0% 35.29 1.263 63.16% -1.026 0.0085

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 20615 56.24% 33.73 0.04 70.01% -0.555 -0.2136
1 Thematic 678 58.76% 31.99 -0.561 63.86% -0.789 -0.2769
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3483 58.73% 32.49 -0.431 70.05% -0.402 -0.2032
2 Coastline 677 55.34% 33.92 -0.09 69.87% -0.477 -0.3257
2 Fragment 233 67.81% 43.73 3.524 72.96% 0.107 0.5047
2 Heart 96 57.29% 36.05 0.692 79.17% 0.078 0.403
2 Opposite Shores 925 51.79% 30.87 -1.277 76.11% -0.413 -0.1826
2 Thematic 237 60.43% 32.46 -0.591 66.67% -0.544 -0.4779
2 Top to Top 181 61.67% 32.74 -0.614 65.75% -0.497 -0.3675
3 Coastline 32 65.63% 32.47 -0.469 53.13% -0.463 -0.5115
3 Other 114 53.1% 31.35 -0.848 86.84% 0.452 0.8556
3 Round (Default) 2300 46.74% 34.4 0.021 76.91% -0.031 0.0143
3 Sunrise 9 66.67% 36.89 1.499 77.78% 0.314 0.1509
3 Thematic 72 66.67% 33.76 0.415 72.22% -0.031 -0.3674
4 Coastline 6 33.33% 35.67 1.099 100.0% 0.767 0.8613
4 Leaf 5 40.0% 45.2 5.562 80.0% 0.076 0.0976
4 Other 81 45.68% 37.58 0.802 82.72% 0.577 0.658
4 Thematic 401 32.0% 48.74 4.153 81.55% 0.226 -0.8113
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1215 41.52% 36.09 0.112 77.78% 0.029 0.0424
5 Other 34 61.76% 42.09 3.147 91.18% 1.346 1.0881
5 Thematic 5 20.0% 59.2 7.691 100.0% 0.267 -2.5428

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1254 31.19 -2.28 49.36% -1.789 0.2849
Aid From Lesser Spirits 992 32.98 -1.298 55.75% -1.561 0.3587
All Things Weaken 1394 32.7 -1.341 55.88% -1.516 0.6453
Back Against the Wall 965 32.75 -1.358 55.03% -1.561 0.5342
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1182 29.95 -2.772 53.05% -1.586 0.6384
Downward Spiral 1321 29.8 -2.733 54.96% -1.654 0.3675
Erosion of Will 1226 29.23 -3.288 43.56% -2.041 0.1681
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 534 38.27 1.538 83.33% -0.2 0.4948
Memory Fades to Dust 1306 31.29 -1.936 59.57% -1.369 0.8496
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1328 29.9 -2.75 50.6% -1.787 0.2319
Promising Farmlands 1212 30.67 -2.519 51.9% -1.679 0.5358
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 384 38.14 1.601 88.28% 0.117 0.5244
Thriving Communities 1352 30.58 -2.443 53.92% -1.628 0.4668
Unnatural Proliferation 1378 31.88 -1.76 54.21% -1.59 0.4968
Untended Land Crumbles 1316 29.33 -2.846 53.57% -1.647 0.4603

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2886 58.57% 32.52 -0.515 68.05% 0.097 -1.0081
B 4911 51.54% 32.98 -0.332 74.26% 0.244 -0.9569
C 2879 52.33% 31.35 -1.028 72.11% 0.033 -1.4002
D 5300 59.58% 32.25 -0.76 69.43% 0.151 -1.0429
E 6352 53.7% 37.17 1.548 71.43% 0.431 -0.8768
F 4643 53.04% 36.64 1.351 73.55% 0.366 -0.8911
G 1643 57.51% 29.24 -2.075 67.86% -0.198 -1.4483
H 1392 60.73% 29.58 -1.805 66.52% -0.215 -1.4745
East 209 51.92% 36.7 0.969 68.42% -0.239 -1.2147
Northeast 316 54.95% 33.57 0.219 63.92% -0.172 -1.1027
Northwest 507 49.8% 41.02 2.149 75.15% 0.174 -0.8218
Southeast 113 47.79% 33.48 -1.123 70.8% -0.254 -1.2864
Southwest 102 60.78% 28.37 -2.01 68.63% 0.132 -0.4706
West 146 45.89% 40.39 1.307 67.81% -0.511 -1.2329

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 222 0.0% 24.48 -4.718 81.98% -1.808 0.2473
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 33.33% 18.71 -5.848 85.71% -0.048 0.1681
Skip Initial Invader Actions 766 17.44% 45.71 4.387 90.86% 0.389 -0.3054
Start of Game Growth 1274 17.78% 40.9 1.89 92.07% 0.905 0.4398
Unlimited Undo 3719 46.45% 36.44 1.011 78.97% 0.412 -0.0079
Using Tokens but Not Events 2606 38.16% 30.14 -1.704 83.58% 0.04 -0.0113

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1329 46.57% 34.71 0.046 77.95% 0.134 0.266
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 291 57.24% 30.97 -1.323 69.07% -0.367 -0.139
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 444 43.79% 33.77 -0.055 78.6% 0.116 0.0283
Eyes Watch From the Trees 614 41.57% 34.92 0.559 81.43% 0.294 -0.0792
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 476 44.4% 35.16 0.492 78.57% 0.196 -0.0664
Fractured Days Split the Sky 431 44.52% 40.89 2.114 75.41% 0.018 0.3821
Heart of the Wildfire 603 61.0% 30.96 -1.903 64.84% -0.431 -0.0815
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1661 41.81% 38.88 1.626 82.36% 0.484 0.1788
Lightning's Swift Strike 665 46.39% 36.97 1.25 79.4% 0.246 0.5042
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1565 49.33% 35.21 0.085 74.44% -0.005 -0.2765
Many Minds Move as One 417 43.24% 32.88 -0.358 78.18% -0.008 -0.5188
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 891 45.96% 38.69 1.666 78.34% 0.283 0.0882
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 464 51.2% 33.31 -0.271 74.78% 0.021 0.066
River Surges in Sunlight 833 54.07% 36.86 0.753 73.59% -0.077 0.0757
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 581 46.97% 37.85 0.68 72.46% -0.133 0.0109
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 334 53.61% 31.33 -1.337 73.05% -0.231 0.2094
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 500 44.96% 37.3 0.768 79.4% 0.179 0.1068
Shroud of Silent Mist 529 59.89% 29.97 -1.655 70.7% -0.313 -0.3192
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1449 47.96% 34.2 -0.632 71.77% -0.045 -0.0669
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 568 44.66% 38.22 1.425 79.05% 0.191 0.391
Thunderspeaker 438 47.48% 36.9 0.512 71.0% -0.324 -0.2737
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 599 71.5% 32.4 -0.89 64.61% -0.115 -0.1068
Vital Strength of the Earth 338 51.95% 28.09 -2.454 72.78% -0.314 0.557

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 87.98%
Lava Flows 90.34%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 96.2%
Rain of Ash 69.68%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4677 22.35 25.76%
II 14822 30.83 69.03%
III 9402 34.33 89.43%
IV 2498 37.51 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1166
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 8001
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9844
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2348
Lose: Invader deck ran out 112
Lose: Adversary condition 2212
Win: Sacrifice victory 880
Lose: Scenario condition 184
Win: Scenario condition 96
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4484
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2072

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.239 Win Model: -0.239

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.153 Win Model: -0.163
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 21322 56.31% 33.69 69.85%
2 5848 57.87% 32.89 70.96%
3 2515 47.7% 34.3 76.98%
4 1714 39.41% 39.22 79.11%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-03-06 02:18:48 (Pacific Time)