Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 76 59.21% 26.14 -3.253 51.32% -1.217 -0.6444
Dahan Insurrection 4 54 48.15% 47.8 6.397 55.56% -0.747 -0.3464
Elemental Invocation 1 241 65.0% 26.03 -2.957 64.32% -0.662 -0.1969
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 451 23.87% 48.74 6.34 82.48% 0.432 0.8078
Powers Long Forgotten 1 22 63.64% 28.5 -2.01 72.73% -0.314 0.1335
Rituals of Terror 3 8 100.0% 32.38 1.229 75.0% -0.249 0.373
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 5 80.0% 28.6 0.753 60.0% -0.24 0.384
Second Wave 0 86 51.16% 28.23 -1.754 79.07% -0.124 0.2948
The Great River 3 37 64.86% 32.22 0.62 54.05% -0.757 0.7282
Ward the Shores 2 4 50.0% 39.25 0.611 50.0% -0.717 0.3135

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 9860 55.73% 33.89 -0.075 71.16% -0.412 -0.0571
1 Thematic 265 58.43% 31.8 -0.481 64.53% -0.567 -0.07
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1337 54.49% 33.35 -0.147 74.72% -0.245 -0.0557
2 Coastline 273 50.92% 32.07 -0.848 69.96% -0.557 -0.4216
2 Fragment 101 71.29% 45.54 4.085 72.28% 0.224 0.6497
2 Heart 33 51.52% 32.3 -0.734 84.85% 0.302 0.5922
2 Opposite Shores 351 50.14% 32.43 -0.561 80.91% -0.013 0.2131
2 Thematic 76 62.67% 34.62 0.824 71.05% 0.012 0.0562
2 Top to Top 78 60.26% 34.87 0.051 69.23% -0.376 -0.2592
3 Coastline 16 75.0% 33.69 0.415 43.75% -0.294 -0.3321
3 Other 41 65.85% 38.46 2.102 95.12% 1.288 1.6904
3 Round (Default) 779 50.26% 34.65 -0.136 72.79% -0.24 -0.2084
3 Sunrise 6 83.33% 45.17 4.179 83.33% 0.427 0.1739
3 Thematic 32 68.75% 33.94 0.158 59.38% -0.481 -0.8204
4 Coastline 1 100.0% 33.0 1.555 100.0% 0.324 0.446
4 Leaf 3 33.33% 42.67 4.491 66.67% -0.176 -0.0967
4 Other 33 51.52% 37.85 1.327 78.79% 0.271 0.3519
4 Thematic 101 30.69% 40.24 1.675 71.29% -0.256 -1.3335
4 Trapezoid (Default) 404 39.15% 36.97 0.46 77.97% 0.054 0.0216
5 Other 14 64.29% 38.71 2.322 92.86% 0.635 0.4182
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 56.5 8.913 100.0% 0.111 -2.6567

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 582 31.71 -2.232 49.48% -1.83 0.2384
Aid From Lesser Spirits 427 33.57 -1.093 57.61% -1.476 0.4407
All Things Weaken 627 34.03 -0.944 56.62% -1.514 0.6465
Back Against the Wall 434 32.41 -1.639 55.07% -1.664 0.4278
Disintegrating Ecosystem 541 29.17 -3.211 53.79% -1.68 0.5416
Downward Spiral 567 30.23 -2.61 56.08% -1.627 0.3869
Erosion of Will 555 29.31 -3.355 43.96% -2.043 0.1687
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 228 38.38 1.422 80.7% -0.393 0.3188
Memory Fades to Dust 545 31.86 -1.831 60.55% -1.384 0.8316
Power Corrodes the Spirit 560 29.21 -3.228 49.11% -1.927 0.0925
Promising Farmlands 540 32.23 -1.912 54.63% -1.529 0.6858
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 176 38.16 1.382 88.07% 0.027 0.4441
Thriving Communities 579 30.04 -2.716 55.96% -1.624 0.4826
Unnatural Proliferation 573 31.88 -1.848 54.62% -1.636 0.4442
Untended Land Crumbles 585 29.8 -2.784 57.09% -1.58 0.5148

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1383 60.45% 33.03 -0.412 66.96% 0.155 -0.9184
B 2184 49.63% 32.88 -0.447 75.78% 0.29 -0.8747
C 1281 52.52% 31.67 -0.956 73.46% 0.107 -1.2899
D 2358 59.97% 32.3 -0.812 69.34% 0.154 -1.0041
E 2701 52.14% 38.26 1.918 73.9% 0.533 -0.724
F 2066 52.98% 36.91 1.391 75.02% 0.412 -0.8136
G 735 55.05% 29.59 -1.966 69.93% -0.123 -1.3351
H 622 61.45% 28.85 -2.252 64.79% -0.316 -1.5372
East 78 51.95% 34.85 0.249 67.95% -0.308 -1.2441
Northeast 113 55.86% 34.65 0.574 63.72% 0.01 -0.8599
Northwest 179 55.56% 36.16 1.219 67.6% 0.034 -0.9116
Southeast 38 42.11% 30.89 -1.966 65.79% -0.572 -1.5549
Southwest 32 53.13% 22.25 -4.386 62.5% -0.561 -1.1863
West 36 52.78% 36.92 1.21 75.0% 0.216 -0.4488

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 59 0.0% 27.58 -3.108 74.58% -2.26 -0.2212
Not Using Events or Tokens 1 100.0% 5.0 -9.603 0.0% -0.524 -0.3037
Skip Initial Invader Actions 276 20.16% 42.75 3.779 91.67% 0.427 -0.279
Start of Game Growth 512 21.28% 38.52 1.186 91.99% 0.767 0.3078
Unlimited Undo 1516 43.95% 36.82 1.352 82.65% 0.519 0.1162
Using Tokens but Not Events 1024 35.34% 27.92 -2.577 86.52% 0.144 0.0979

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 534 45.78% 33.84 -0.238 78.84% 0.182 0.328
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 103 62.14% 28.42 -2.335 69.9% -0.309 -0.0721
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 142 42.96% 31.42 -1.108 75.35% -0.155 -0.2417
Eyes Watch From the Trees 210 38.76% 35.45 0.757 81.9% 0.364 -0.005
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 143 39.44% 36.44 0.669 84.62% 0.452 0.2193
Fractured Days Split the Sky 126 49.21% 38.35 1.298 74.6% -0.026 0.3071
Heart of the Wildfire 252 62.3% 31.85 -1.597 66.67% -0.214 0.1334
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 509 44.2% 39.72 2.264 81.93% 0.591 0.2926
Lightning's Swift Strike 247 50.0% 36.84 1.091 79.35% 0.303 0.5711
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 645 49.46% 34.86 0.139 74.73% 0.161 -0.1996
Many Minds Move as One 129 44.19% 33.15 -0.329 79.84% 0.026 -0.4873
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 321 46.54% 38.09 1.299 77.88% 0.238 0.0409
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 155 48.7% 34.07 0.228 77.42% 0.167 0.2141
River Surges in Sunlight 334 50.15% 36.48 0.507 72.16% -0.217 -0.0504
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 223 50.22% 35.22 0.062 68.16% -0.11 0.0389
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 119 53.78% 32.21 -1.163 73.11% -0.27 0.1793
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 158 46.5% 38.9 1.157 79.75% 0.064 -0.0002
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 542 51.11% 33.8 -0.533 68.45% -0.163 -0.1816
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 241 44.77% 39.51 1.796 76.76% 0.048 0.2629
Thunderspeaker 156 41.03% 36.72 0.407 72.44% -0.243 -0.1828
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 197 77.66% 30.17 -1.846 57.36% -0.462 -0.4259
Vital Strength of the Earth 131 50.77% 27.73 -2.815 70.23% -0.554 0.3104

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 89.73%
Lava Flows 91.25%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 96.21%
Rain of Ash 70.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2024 22.34 28.8%
II 6654 30.71 69.87%
III 4134 34.23 89.86%
IV 994 37.48 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 563
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 3524
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4482
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 921
Lose: Invader deck ran out 39
Lose: Adversary condition 931
Win: Sacrifice victory 418
Lose: Scenario condition 63
Win: Scenario condition 30
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1928
Lose: Spirit destroyed 907

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.269 Win Model: -0.24

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.128 Win Model: -0.099
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 10148 55.78% 33.85 71.03%
2 2243 54.66% 33.65 74.81%
3 871 52.76% 34.83 72.45%
4 544 37.71% 37.72 77.39%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)