Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 190 57.37% 29.69 -2.279 58.42% -1.045 -0.4715
Dahan Insurrection 4 120 45.0% 47.77 6.448 60.83% -0.819 -0.4195
Despicable Theft 2 32 50.0% 33.5 0.557 68.75% -0.801 -0.518
Elemental Invocation 1 366 66.76% 26.83 -2.633 63.11% -0.723 -0.2834
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1186 21.87% 49.8 6.381 81.03% 0.217 0.5828
Powers Long Forgotten 1 46 69.57% 27.33 -2.541 65.22% -0.59 -0.1488
Rituals of Terror 3 26 70.83% 33.19 1.47 69.23% -0.501 0.1423
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 38 81.58% 28.92 -0.039 63.16% -0.645 -0.0031
Second Wave 0 450 49.44% 28.25 -1.913 76.89% -0.406 0.0217
The Great River 3 169 48.52% 31.63 0.23 66.27% -0.886 0.5739
Ward the Shores 2 36 50.0% 34.25 0.831 61.11% -1.104 -0.0666

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 20072 56.16% 33.72 0.02 70.05% -0.532 -0.1989
1 Thematic 664 58.95% 32.12 -0.503 63.86% -0.729 -0.2306
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3364 58.79% 32.48 -0.435 70.04% -0.404 -0.2041
2 Coastline 649 54.8% 34.31 0.073 70.11% -0.474 -0.3194
2 Fragment 221 67.42% 44.09 3.684 74.21% 0.158 0.5543
2 Heart 93 56.99% 36.24 0.697 79.57% 0.089 0.4109
2 Opposite Shores 890 51.35% 30.99 -1.227 76.52% -0.391 -0.1624
2 Thematic 229 59.03% 32.59 -0.526 66.81% -0.552 -0.4908
2 Top to Top 167 60.24% 33.19 -0.417 68.86% -0.419 -0.287
3 Coastline 31 67.74% 31.65 -0.766 51.61% -0.5 -0.5385
3 Other 112 54.05% 31.52 -0.803 86.61% 0.432 0.8521
3 Round (Default) 2221 47.19% 34.36 0.011 76.81% -0.05 0.0058
3 Sunrise 8 62.5% 38.38 2.148 87.5% 0.423 0.2292
3 Thematic 68 67.65% 33.84 0.442 72.06% -0.051 -0.3801
4 Coastline 6 33.33% 35.67 1.123 100.0% 0.753 0.878
4 Leaf 5 40.0% 45.2 5.579 80.0% 0.062 0.1087
4 Other 76 46.05% 36.72 0.474 81.58% 0.408 0.5204
4 Thematic 386 32.21% 48.39 3.985 80.83% 0.148 -0.876
4 Trapezoid (Default) 1180 41.62% 36.11 0.112 77.63% -0.021 0.0139
5 Other 33 60.61% 42.67 3.303 93.94% 1.426 1.1706
5 Thematic 5 20.0% 59.2 7.626 100.0% 0.261 -2.6825

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 1216 31.16 -2.3 49.42% -1.782 0.2909
Aid From Lesser Spirits 958 32.89 -1.331 56.05% -1.548 0.3709
All Things Weaken 1357 32.82 -1.291 56.01% -1.5 0.6584
Back Against the Wall 941 32.77 -1.346 55.37% -1.545 0.5489
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1148 30.0 -2.742 53.48% -1.567 0.6577
Downward Spiral 1281 29.92 -2.691 55.11% -1.632 0.3889
Erosion of Will 1194 29.33 -3.251 43.72% -2.03 0.1783
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 514 38.37 1.57 83.66% -0.173 0.5196
Memory Fades to Dust 1262 31.31 -1.935 59.43% -1.364 0.8539
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1282 29.68 -2.843 50.16% -1.799 0.2214
Promising Farmlands 1171 30.81 -2.453 52.09% -1.655 0.5598
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 369 37.77 1.458 88.08% 0.098 0.5087
Thriving Communities 1315 30.51 -2.461 54.22% -1.617 0.476
Unnatural Proliferation 1341 31.84 -1.759 54.21% -1.583 0.506
Untended Land Crumbles 1280 29.43 -2.813 53.59% -1.637 0.4689

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 2796 58.59% 32.57 -0.504 68.03% 0.099 -1.0128
B 4777 51.62% 33.05 -0.311 74.25% 0.254 -0.9545
C 2794 52.06% 31.33 -1.035 72.37% 0.048 -1.3913
D 5154 59.35% 32.29 -0.741 69.75% 0.166 -1.0354
E 6175 53.68% 37.15 1.535 71.4% 0.431 -0.8815
F 4474 53.07% 36.63 1.355 73.56% 0.376 -0.8894
G 1600 57.75% 29.14 -2.12 67.56% -0.204 -1.4611
H 1358 60.54% 29.63 -1.792 66.49% -0.211 -1.4768
East 200 51.76% 37.16 1.154 69.5% -0.194 -1.1751
Northeast 301 55.03% 33.52 0.134 62.79% -0.233 -1.164
Northwest 497 49.59% 40.76 2.081 74.85% 0.162 -0.8377
Southeast 107 49.53% 32.74 -1.338 69.16% -0.305 -1.3304
Southwest 101 60.4% 28.53 -1.94 69.31% 0.158 -0.4618
West 146 45.89% 40.39 1.32 67.81% -0.511 -1.2357

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 216 0.0% 24.25 -4.793 81.48% -1.811 0.2432
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 33.33% 18.71 -5.826 85.71% -0.048 0.1702
Skip Initial Invader Actions 737 17.16% 45.72 4.365 90.64% 0.367 -0.3263
Start of Game Growth 1232 17.82% 40.94 1.909 91.88% 0.894 0.4308
Unlimited Undo 3593 46.59% 36.49 1.032 78.9% 0.419 -0.0012
Using Tokens but Not Events 2496 38.14% 30.1 -1.72 83.49% 0.024 -0.0281

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1284 46.6% 34.57 0.003 78.19% 0.157 0.29
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 277 58.33% 30.89 -1.452 68.95% -0.382 -0.153
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 424 44.92% 33.69 -0.091 78.07% 0.094 0.0078
Eyes Watch From the Trees 588 41.03% 34.95 0.554 81.29% 0.277 -0.0961
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 463 45.43% 35.28 0.527 77.97% 0.184 -0.0762
Fractured Days Split the Sky 417 45.54% 40.71 2.067 75.06% 0.017 0.3853
Heart of the Wildfire 568 60.0% 31.36 -1.738 66.37% -0.373 -0.0233
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1602 41.79% 38.74 1.581 82.21% 0.469 0.1648
Lightning's Swift Strike 644 46.51% 36.92 1.228 79.35% 0.247 0.5067
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1522 49.47% 35.15 0.075 74.44% 0.01 -0.2633
Many Minds Move as One 398 43.29% 32.99 -0.321 78.14% 0.01 -0.505
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 868 45.68% 38.71 1.7 78.69% 0.318 0.1223
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 446 51.36% 33.29 -0.282 74.89% 0.036 0.0816
River Surges in Sunlight 809 54.07% 36.67 0.657 73.55% -0.08 0.0725
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 564 47.14% 37.91 0.696 72.34% -0.136 0.0087
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 329 53.82% 31.48 -1.267 72.95% -0.218 0.2231
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 481 45.19% 37.38 0.781 79.42% 0.189 0.1173
Shroud of Silent Mist 500 60.76% 29.94 -1.674 70.0% -0.341 -0.3604
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1394 48.13% 34.32 -0.576 71.81% -0.033 -0.0535
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 557 44.83% 38.31 1.442 78.64% 0.179 0.3815
Thunderspeaker 419 46.52% 36.8 0.464 70.64% -0.359 -0.3077
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 579 71.73% 32.21 -0.986 64.25% -0.127 -0.1195
Vital Strength of the Earth 330 51.69% 28.18 -2.431 73.03% -0.318 0.5523

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 88.03%
Lava Flows 90.36%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 96.17%
Rain of Ash 69.71%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 4544 22.34 25.73%
II 14378 30.81 69.12%
III 9135 34.31 89.44%
IV 2423 37.5 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1132
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 7772
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 9563
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2275
Lose: Invader deck ran out 109
Lose: Adversary condition 2146
Win: Sacrifice victory 860
Lose: Scenario condition 181
Win: Scenario condition 91
Lose: Blight pool ran out 4329
Lose: Spirit destroyed 2022

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.238 Win Model: -0.24

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.15 Win Model: -0.143
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 20764 56.23% 33.68 69.88%
2 5629 57.67% 32.97 71.2%
3 2427 48.11% 34.26 76.89%
4 1660 39.59% 39.13 78.86%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)