Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 40 62.5% 24.8 47.5% -0.755 -0.2591 0.0
Blitz 0 399 49.87% 29.02 63.66% -1.022 -0.5791 -1.404
Dahan Insurrection 4 242 41.74% 47.75 66.94% 0.249 0.3458 0.283
Despicable Theft 2 98 55.1% 32.89 60.2% -0.81 -0.3115 -0.793
Elemental Invocation 1 545 66.3% 26.78 62.02% -0.075 0.4712 -1.372
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2332 21.75% 48.53 78.99% -0.023 0.2089 0.315
Powers Long Forgotten 1 98 67.35% 28.91 64.29% 0.552 0.9596 -0.718
Rituals of Terror 3 81 72.15% 37.48 58.02% -0.634 -0.87 -0.185
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 78 80.77% 31.55 62.82% -0.063 0.1636 0.142
Second Wave 0 1427 46.15% 27.72 77.08% -0.402 0.2909 0.487
The Great River 3 298 54.36% 33.63 64.77% -1.223 0.3583 -1.199
Varied Terrains 2 40 75.0% 32.7 70.0% -0.668 0.1181 -0.225
Ward the Shores 2 97 61.05% 32.47 58.76% -0.415 0.4654 -0.294

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 39041 56.87% 33.05 68.36% 0.407 1.0702 0.125
1 Thematic 1271 58.36% 31.94 63.57% 0.303 1.3597 -0.626
2 Archipelago 45 56.82% 36.69 88.89% 0.685 1.1564 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 7181 59.76% 32.22 69.34% -0.094 0.4238 -0.101
2 Coastline 1468 56.58% 34.22 71.12% 0.224 0.4249 0.197
2 Fragment 464 65.44% 45.51 75.86% 0.38 0.6784 1.512
2 Heart 190 65.26% 33.19 67.89% -0.19 0.2709 0.097
2 Opposite Shores 1984 52.31% 30.23 72.08% -0.006 0.5329 -0.444
2 Thematic 508 60.59% 31.83 63.19% -0.644 0.1385 -0.838
2 Top to Top 434 60.79% 33.92 66.59% 0.026 0.1541 -0.287
3 Archipelago 38 65.79% 33.66 65.79% 0.073 -0.1453 -0.222
3 Coastline 66 65.15% 33.17 62.12% 0.935 0.4274 0.7
3 Other 240 46.44% 29.34 83.33% 0.24 -0.4241 -0.27
3 Round (Default) 5024 47.15% 33.54 75.32% -0.152 0.1529 -0.14
3 Sunrise 26 61.54% 37.31 76.92% -0.066 0.3936 0.459
3 Thematic 164 66.46% 33.98 71.34% -0.159 0.0485 0.387
4 Archipelago 45 36.36% 33.07 84.44% 0.555 0.5179 -0.989
4 Coastline 24 25.0% 31.96 87.5% 0.244 0.2063 0.794
4 Leaf 22 50.0% 32.18 63.64% 0.121 0.0187 -0.762
4 Other 165 45.12% 34.13 84.85% -0.278 -0.9916 0.294
4 Thematic 657 39.6% 46.35 77.32% -0.517 -0.4136 -0.389
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2536 42.2% 35.25 78.12% -0.515 -0.4378 0.082
5 Archipelago 8 62.5% 32.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 13 7.69% 47.62 84.62% 0.107 -0.481 0.226
5 Other 220 42.47% 34.5 81.82% -0.315 -0.8311 0.684
5 Thematic 31 45.16% 43.48 83.87% 0.364 0.0766 0.595
6 Archipelago 9 11.11% 40.11 100.0% 0.083 -0.0634 0.0
6 Coastline 5 0.0% 40.4 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.033
6 Other 103 32.04% 27.39 79.61% -0.549 -0.5041 -0.975
6 Star 86 46.51% 37.64 74.42% -0.336 0.4344 -0.484
6 Thematic 277 39.86% 42.1 81.59% 0.23 0.471 -0.203
6 Two Centers (Default) 378 26.53% 35.52 88.1% -1.129 -0.9373 -0.541
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Other 5 60.0% 28.8 80.0% 0.072 -0.4122 -0.201

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 2527 30.85 49.15% -1.635 0.3354 -1.34
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2031 33.74 56.67% -1.342 0.4356 -0.806
All Things Weaken 2749 32.56 56.49% -1.054 0.9947 -0.972
Back Against the Wall 1955 32.26 52.43% -1.64 0.2992 -1.121
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2369 29.94 52.6% -1.37 0.7578 -1.317
Downward Spiral 2642 29.45 52.84% -1.635 0.3264 -1.294
Erosion of Will 2452 28.98 43.19% -1.71 0.3715 -1.555
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1030 36.92 81.84% -0.246 0.2553 -0.208
Memory Fades to Dust 2642 30.75 56.81% -1.416 0.7251 -1.093
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2685 29.33 49.24% -1.719 0.2619 -1.351
Promising Farmlands 2413 30.23 52.63% -1.363 0.6584 -1.228
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 719 37.48 86.65% 0.336 0.833 0.203
Thriving Communities 2717 29.7 51.31% -1.538 0.5214 -1.228
Unnatural Proliferation 2815 31.54 53.18% -1.479 0.4777 -1.254
Untended Land Crumbles 2668 28.79 50.94% -1.704 0.3289 -1.415

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 10698 53.92% 32.71 71.17% 0.119 0.8549 -0.094
B 13653 50.89% 32.83 73.56% 0.164 0.8615 -0.315
C 11304 50.04% 32.28 72.55% 0.198 0.6675 -0.373
D 14982 56.84% 31.91 69.46% -0.06 0.6492 -0.389
E 16593 52.85% 35.79 71.44% 0.552 1.0963 0.051
F 13344 51.55% 35.31 74.43% 0.388 1.0499 0.156
G 7348 52.44% 31.52 71.53% 0.276 0.9068 -0.505
H 6799 53.55% 32.07 71.97% -0.104 0.5602 -0.329
East 2052 50.42% 38.34 70.32% -0.617 0.0444 -0.299
Northeast 1414 49.07% 40.62 72.84% 0.289 0.949 -0.482
Northwest 1508 49.49% 40.41 73.34% -0.227 0.3838 0.294
Southeast 697 44.3% 38.57 75.04% -0.311 0.2199 -0.362
Southwest 713 46.62% 37.69 75.18% 0.033 1.0016 -0.085
West 2164 51.1% 38.09 71.16% 0.409 1.2146 -0.232

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 415 0.0% 24.22 84.82% 0.416 2.6451 0.38
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 60.87% 17.13 64.52% -0.321 -0.0945 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1361 15.56% 43.82 91.48% 0.953 -0.0275 -0.277
Start of Game Growth 2198 20.03% 41.34 89.67% 0.065 -0.3918 -0.054
Unlimited Undo 6910 45.26% 36.58 79.48% 0.678 0.1264 0.765
Using Tokens but Not Events 5435 38.84% 29.58 82.23% -0.411 -0.2563 0.241

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2982 100.0% 35.06 100.0% 0.422 0.3464 -0.035
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 623 100.0% 29.46 100.0% -0.459 -0.3801 -0.734
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1009 100.0% 32.83 100.0% 0.274 0.0494 -0.397
Downpour Drenches the World 361 100.0% 36.3 100.0% 0.253 0.5179 0.058
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1448 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.14 -0.363 0.169
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 975 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.121 -0.4659 0.251
Finder of Paths Unseen 485 100.0% 36.87 100.0% 0.291 0.6465 0.249
Fractured Days Split the Sky 834 100.0% 38.74 100.0% 0.036 0.118 0.374
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 731 100.0% 34.47 100.0% 0.065 -0.03 0.079
Heart of the Wildfire 1383 100.0% 30.72 100.0% -0.468 -0.0627 -0.346
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3617 100.0% 38.3 100.0% 0.809 0.2053 0.853
Lightning's Swift Strike 544 199.09% 29.34 137.32% -0.421 -0.0559 -0.182
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 126 53.97% 38.0 79.37% 0.2 -0.5494 0.398
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 386 46.6% 36.14 80.83% 0.11 -0.4542 0.639
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 516 44.94% 42.25 80.04% 0.442 -0.0524 0.373
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2969 100.0% 34.8 100.0% -0.526 -0.6777 -0.2
Many Minds Move as One 942 100.0% 32.1 100.0% 0.06 -0.5262 0.191
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1959 100.0% 36.64 100.0% 0.032 -0.1373 0.188
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1139 100.0% 32.07 100.0% 0.2 0.1441 0.272
River Surges in Sunlight 1239 129.51% 37.41 115.9% -0.389 -0.4636 0.4
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 546 44.61% 32.76 69.96% -0.362 0.0639 -0.98
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 131 46.56% 43.14 74.81% 0.727 0.3856 0.519
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1350 100.0% 36.21 100.0% 0.563 0.3697 -0.14
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 157 283.75% 26.39 220.38% 0.018 0.493 -0.784
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 55 70.37% 30.44 47.27% -1.642 -1.4628 0.191
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 48 62.5% 37.19 79.17% 1.162 1.2174 0.198
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 286 50.88% 31.28 72.03% 0.175 0.1526 -1.158
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 240 49.79% 29.19 70.83% 0.45 0.5662 -0.131
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1168 100.0% 37.36 100.0% -0.129 -0.3202 0.448
Shifting Memory of Ages 879 100.0% 31.18 100.0% -0.434 -0.2192 -0.61
Shroud of Silent Mist 1052 100.0% 28.95 100.0% -0.22 -0.0862 -0.104
Starlight Seeks its Form 1009 100.0% 36.82 100.0% 0.085 -0.03 0.876
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2846 100.0% 34.09 100.0% -0.229 -0.4674 -0.459
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1218 100.0% 36.67 100.0% -0.109 0.0216 0.686
Thunderspeaker 1134 100.0% 34.63 100.0% 0.298 0.2812 0.046
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1332 100.0% 30.83 100.0% -0.06 -0.2752 -0.283
Vital Strength of the Earth 568 132.51% 27.24 122.36% -0.545 0.353 -0.559
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 104 54.81% 36.56 61.54% -0.963 -0.5397 -0.181
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 297 53.38% 29.91 70.71% 0.201 1.3154 -0.138

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 86.15%
Lava Flows 89.12%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 95.93%
Rain of Ash 68.83%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 10009 22.65 22.97%
II 28735 31.08 68.41%
III 18895 34.66 89.33%
IV 5093 37.91 99.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 2209
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16051
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18887
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4783
Lose: Invader deck ran out 246
Lose: Adversary condition 4564
Win: Sacrifice victory 1780
Lose: Scenario condition 388
Win: Scenario condition 212
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9383
Lose: Spirit destroyed 4229

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.18 Win Model: -0.227

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.168 Win Model: 0.277
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 40423 56.95% 33.03 68.19%
2 12314 58.57% 32.7 70.02%
3 5504 47.92% 33.42 75.36%
4 3456 41.06% 37.34 78.79%
5 177 39.2% 31.92 81.92%
6 858 33.18% 37.02 83.92%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)