Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 130 57.69% 28.47 -2.498 56.15% -1.039 -0.4627
Dahan Insurrection 4 84 47.62% 46.67 5.842 53.57% -1.006 -0.6049
Despicable Theft 2 5 20.0% 36.0 0.951 100.0% 0.377 0.8056
Elemental Invocation 1 286 65.49% 26.54 -2.802 64.69% -0.674 -0.293
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 733 23.17% 48.19 6.008 81.04% 0.278 0.6441
Powers Long Forgotten 1 31 67.74% 27.65 -2.366 70.97% -0.267 0.1749
Rituals of Terror 3 16 80.0% 34.81 1.926 68.75% -0.322 0.3059
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 10 80.0% 28.8 0.41 60.0% -0.419 0.2304
Second Wave 0 183 51.1% 28.03 -1.976 75.96% -0.411 0.0048
The Great River 3 112 44.64% 31.96 0.5 73.21% -0.598 0.873
Ward the Shores 2 18 55.56% 32.89 -0.012 55.56% -1.118 -0.0813

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 13751 55.83% 33.85 -0.034 70.69% -0.336 0.0227
1 Thematic 411 59.1% 32.44 -0.26 63.75% -0.497 0.0071
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2036 56.63% 32.62 -0.448 72.2% -0.304 -0.108
2 Coastline 407 53.96% 33.33 -0.432 68.8% -0.472 -0.3292
2 Fragment 144 68.06% 45.15 4.013 72.92% 0.229 0.6517
2 Heart 55 56.36% 36.85 0.829 81.82% 0.439 0.7313
2 Opposite Shores 511 48.82% 31.81 -0.862 80.04% -0.043 0.182
2 Thematic 123 56.2% 34.12 0.251 68.29% -0.268 -0.2236
2 Top to Top 104 61.17% 34.22 -0.042 71.15% -0.238 -0.1033
3 Coastline 22 72.73% 31.95 -0.442 50.0% -0.468 -0.501
3 Other 69 60.29% 34.22 0.466 88.41% 0.631 1.0464
3 Round (Default) 1283 48.74% 35.18 0.207 74.82% -0.128 -0.0892
3 Sunrise 6 83.33% 45.17 4.12 83.33% 0.412 0.189
3 Thematic 41 65.85% 34.93 0.754 65.85% -0.185 -0.5417
4 Coastline 2 50.0% 29.0 -0.774 100.0% 0.301 0.4594
4 Leaf 3 33.33% 42.67 4.563 66.67% -0.174 -0.1466
4 Other 45 42.22% 35.76 0.252 82.22% 0.275 0.3884
4 Thematic 186 36.56% 41.95 2.063 74.73% -0.23 -1.3165
4 Trapezoid (Default) 673 38.77% 36.84 0.299 76.97% -0.154 -0.1713
5 Other 22 59.09% 43.09 3.781 95.45% 1.145 0.9268
5 Thematic 2 0.0% 56.5 8.811 100.0% 0.096 -2.7317

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 807 31.5 -2.303 48.57% -1.82 0.2503
Aid From Lesser Spirits 627 32.74 -1.5 56.78% -1.545 0.3733
All Things Weaken 913 34.13 -0.844 57.28% -1.438 0.7168
Back Against the Wall 606 32.71 -1.482 55.78% -1.577 0.5193
Disintegrating Ecosystem 753 29.5 -3.087 52.46% -1.651 0.5729
Downward Spiral 829 30.31 -2.592 55.13% -1.626 0.3912
Erosion of Will 791 29.92 -3.047 45.76% -1.951 0.2585
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 314 38.32 1.403 82.8% -0.266 0.4387
Memory Fades to Dust 806 31.33 -1.986 59.8% -1.373 0.8418
Power Corrodes the Spirit 812 29.3 -3.124 48.52% -1.897 0.1228
Promising Farmlands 783 31.62 -2.165 53.38% -1.588 0.625
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 238 38.47 1.561 87.39% 0.049 0.4845
Thriving Communities 855 30.34 -2.536 55.2% -1.593 0.5043
Unnatural Proliferation 848 31.55 -1.951 54.6% -1.634 0.444
Untended Land Crumbles 833 29.57 -2.838 54.98% -1.593 0.5059

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 1887 59.8% 32.94 -0.44 67.46% 0.128 -0.9614
B 3203 50.28% 32.93 -0.479 74.31% 0.225 -0.9601
C 1888 52.64% 31.46 -1.053 72.25% 0.057 -1.3581
D 3298 59.46% 32.4 -0.752 69.28% 0.157 -1.0204
E 4006 52.34% 37.79 1.787 73.51% 0.53 -0.7471
F 2915 53.05% 37.1 1.483 74.34% 0.42 -0.823
G 1051 56.65% 29.34 -2.04 69.27% -0.121 -1.3514
H 885 61.5% 28.95 -2.156 65.31% -0.279 -1.5193
East 119 51.69% 36.3 0.955 69.75% -0.144 -1.0946
Northeast 178 52.84% 35.16 0.61 64.61% -0.034 -0.9241
Northwest 280 54.61% 37.67 1.485 71.07% 0.089 -0.8763
Southeast 59 50.85% 31.8 -1.463 66.1% -0.286 -1.2875
Southwest 52 53.85% 28.75 -2.228 69.23% -0.003 -0.6116
West 75 53.33% 31.73 -0.995 56.0% -0.705 -1.391

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 122 0.0% 23.06 -4.594 79.51% -1.78 0.2641
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 50.0% 11.5 -8.559 50.0% -0.482 -0.2631
Skip Initial Invader Actions 398 19.18% 43.9 4.499 90.45% 0.53 -0.1736
Start of Game Growth 765 18.95% 38.25 1.052 91.9% 0.764 0.3101
Unlimited Undo 2299 45.23% 35.92 0.901 79.82% 0.367 -0.0451
Using Tokens but Not Events 1533 37.7% 28.62 -2.304 83.95% 0.017 -0.0309

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 800 45.81% 34.08 -0.19 77.0% 0.089 0.2352
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 172 57.56% 29.94 -1.738 69.77% -0.341 -0.1046
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 232 42.42% 32.6 -0.656 78.02% 0.031 -0.0546
Eyes Watch From the Trees 331 38.48% 35.07 0.437 80.66% 0.24 -0.1254
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 257 40.63% 36.16 0.652 79.38% 0.244 -0.0008
Fractured Days Split the Sky 234 47.86% 38.93 1.584 75.64% 0.071 0.4167
Heart of the Wildfire 345 60.58% 32.07 -1.483 66.96% -0.23 0.1203
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 857 43.57% 39.36 1.997 81.68% 0.543 0.2435
Lightning's Swift Strike 374 47.68% 36.89 1.061 78.61% 0.183 0.4518
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 976 50.21% 34.93 0.106 73.77% 0.081 -0.2384
Many Minds Move as One 214 43.19% 32.8 -0.518 78.5% 0.076 -0.4448
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 537 45.11% 38.34 1.391 76.54% 0.195 0.001
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 258 51.17% 34.14 0.017 73.26% 0.008 0.0566
River Surges in Sunlight 506 52.8% 36.49 0.581 73.12% -0.063 0.0988
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 328 51.68% 34.31 -0.403 68.6% -0.223 -0.0735
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 204 54.68% 32.02 -1.154 73.04% -0.147 0.3027
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 269 45.86% 38.6 1.12 78.81% 0.133 0.0655
Shroud of Silent Mist 72 54.17% 31.36 -1.291 75.0% -0.2 -0.2438
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 833 50.43% 33.19 -0.841 70.59% -0.094 -0.1135
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 381 43.77% 39.68 1.92 78.22% 0.168 0.3839
Thunderspeaker 243 41.98% 37.4 0.529 71.6% -0.309 -0.2514
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 333 73.49% 31.76 -1.246 62.46% -0.18 -0.1606
Vital Strength of the Earth 196 47.15% 28.84 -2.304 72.96% -0.36 0.5102

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Exaltation of Molten Stone 88.95%
Lava Flows 91.14%
Pyroclastic Bombardment 96.25%
Rain of Ash 70.21%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2978 22.34 27.17%
II 9463 30.75 69.63%
III 5938 34.26 89.68%
IV 1517 37.47 99.6%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 782
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5052
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6358
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 1418
Lose: Invader deck ran out 75
Lose: Adversary condition 1388
Win: Sacrifice victory 571
Lose: Scenario condition 111
Win: Scenario condition 53
Lose: Blight pool ran out 2799
Lose: Spirit destroyed 1289

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.236 Win Model: -0.244

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.134 Win Model: -0.055
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 14185 55.91% 33.82 70.52%
2 3386 55.81% 33.27 72.98%
3 1409 50.39% 35.11 74.66%
4 916 38.31% 38.02 77.29%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)