Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 7.14% 23.29 85.71% 0.368 0.201 0.0
Blitz 0 2030 35.55% 26.23 66.31% 0.371 0.5204 0.282
Dahan Insurrection 4 1430 28.02% 45.31 64.41% 0.063 -0.1493 1.006
Despicable Theft 2 47 44.68% 27.85 42.55% -0.93 -0.2134 -0.689
Elemental Invocation 1 68 47.76% 24.06 50.0% -0.09 0.6612 -0.35
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5751 15.33% 39.98 66.41% 0.682 0.0735 0.705
Powers Long Forgotten 1 590 49.32% 34.19 58.64% -0.069 0.4304 -1.2
Rituals of Terror 3 594 42.54% 37.24 63.47% -0.545 -0.4369 0.439
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 420 62.02% 32.33 56.19% -0.643 0.4109 -0.412
Second Wave 0 5856 34.95% 26.63 73.05% 0.461 0.5408 0.117
The Great River 3 53 40.0% 25.55 45.28% -0.945 0.4493 -0.149
Varied Terrains 2 11 27.27% 17.64 36.36% -0.499 0.0822 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 611 41.68% 31.05 54.66% -0.629 0.5725 -0.805

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 111292 36.42% 21.07 62.91% 0.108 0.3146 -0.345
1 Thematic 4716 48.67% 28.95 51.99% -0.233 0.3718 -0.699
2 Archipelago 20 30.0% 22.95 65.0% -0.378 -0.0543 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 33825 40.72% 23.51 69.08% 0.199 0.3458 0.386
2 Coastline 4194 30.25% 23.48 76.51% 0.505 0.5407 0.566
2 Fragment 1130 40.43% 21.19 69.12% 0.36 0.2925 0.6
2 Heart 1210 16.91% 23.3 85.12% 0.279 0.0012 -0.706
2 Opposite Shores 5561 36.44% 25.19 72.24% 0.175 0.2885 -0.028
2 Thematic 2615 45.8% 33.93 60.92% -1.203 -0.5565 -0.818
2 Top to Top 879 45.12% 23.44 69.74% -0.243 -0.2191 1.231
3 Archipelago 15 53.33% 29.73 53.33% 0.0 -1.1651 0.0
3 Coastline 66 31.48% 27.39 71.21% 0.409 -0.1298 0.627
3 Other 599 37.6% 22.77 73.29% 0.582 0.677 -0.355
3 Round (Default) 16026 34.64% 28.71 76.92% 0.758 0.679 0.323
3 Sunrise 59 43.14% 30.07 83.05% 0.0 0.3585 0.967
3 Thematic 667 44.04% 34.91 61.92% -1.071 -1.0233 -0.075
4 Archipelago 18 41.18% 29.78 77.78% -0.714 -0.9525 0.039
4 Coastline 40 22.86% 27.27 82.5% 0.37 0.4238 -0.014
4 Leaf 86 30.0% 27.67 86.05% 1.535 1.1173 0.569
4 Other 447 34.62% 28.65 79.87% -0.315 -1.3035 0.349
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 -0.4073 0.0
4 Snake 5 80.0% 38.8 60.0% 0.468 0.4373 0.0
4 Thematic 3055 28.29% 46.38 77.61% 0.168 0.1336 -0.539
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14363 28.1% 30.62 80.76% 0.702 0.4961 0.067
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.0908 0.0
5 Coastline 12 0.0% 28.92 100.0% 0.053 -0.03 0.174
5 Other 235 32.57% 34.83 88.09% 0.437 -0.0481 0.611
5 Thematic 65 20.0% 64.38 95.38% 0.0 -0.2216 1.113
6 Archipelago 33 21.43% 31.97 93.94% -0.407 -0.4207 0.065
6 Coastline 49 0.0% 27.16 95.92% -0.156 -0.884 -0.094
6 Other 180 8.23% 31.17 88.89% 0.029 -0.4508 -0.734
6 Star 37 38.89% 24.03 64.86% -0.759 -0.4841 -0.311
6 Thematic 165 24.24% 36.93 72.73% -1.057 -0.6675 -1.581
6 Two Centers (Default) 576 12.13% 27.01 83.68% -0.672 -0.6522 -1.418
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 27.5 50.0% -0.842 -1.3197 -0.307
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.273 -0.5395 -0.659

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3957 24.64 40.69% 0.128 0.3941 -0.122
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3610 26.52 47.31% -0.183 -0.1766 0.18
All Things Weaken 1209 23.32 37.39% -0.529 -0.0933 -0.304
Attenuated Essence 24 18.63 37.5% -0.413 -0.2225 0.794
Back Against the Wall 3501 26.32 44.07% 0.184 0.3256 0.061
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 16 16.94 31.25% -0.365 0.0188 -0.368
Burn Brightest Before the End 22 19.91 45.45% -0.152 0.1419 0.045
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3701 21.91 37.15% -0.419 0.0836 -0.423
Downward Spiral 15727 19.27 43.74% -0.658 -0.3286 -0.225
Erosion of Will 3846 23.16 38.59% -0.406 -0.0204 -0.085
Intensifying Exploitation 20 10.95 15.0% -1.019 -0.6512 -0.549
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 430 27.07 56.05% 0.47 -0.0498 0.51
Memory Fades to Dust 15805 19.07 40.9% -0.758 -0.2923 -0.538
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1187 22.85 39.17% -0.358 -0.0681 -0.35
Promising Farmlands 3873 22.78 38.34% -0.588 -0.0188 -0.294
Shattered Fragments of Power 29 13.24 34.48% -0.95 -0.7969 -0.266
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 19.25 40.0% -0.128 0.3747 -0.162
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 302 28.25 73.84% 0.998 0.3451 0.402
The Border of Life and Death 6 11.67 33.33% -0.506 -0.6844 -0.202
Thriving Communities 1120 22.7 38.13% -1.132 -0.6715 0.03
Thriving Crops 5 17.6 40.0% -0.453 -0.4058 -0.466
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 -0.1456 -0.386
Unnatural Proliferation 1247 25.56 43.54% -0.094 0.1975 0.031
Untended Land Crumbles 1182 21.66 35.45% -0.36 -0.0386 -0.732

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 64225 36.21% 23.8 69.19% -0.655 0.1818 -0.504
B 66816 34.36% 24.77 71.41% -0.513 0.2673 -0.15
C 68584 33.18% 24.65 71.57% -0.433 0.2195 -0.043
D 64864 34.19% 24.5 71.0% -0.445 0.3526 -0.442
E 10010 36.59% 26.66 71.88% -0.13 0.4951 0.024
F 17307 36.27% 27.33 72.23% 0.021 0.7396 0.415
G 15029 36.63% 26.68 71.81% -0.256 0.4873 -0.281
H 15409 35.48% 27.15 72.29% -0.4 0.2448 0.001
East 8448 37.8% 38.44 66.41% -0.058 0.5379 0.329
Northeast 6204 35.28% 40.52 69.94% -0.035 0.8244 0.12
Northwest 5426 35.79% 40.82 69.11% -0.473 0.2254 -0.099
Southeast 742 34.59% 34.48 67.79% -0.414 0.2454 -0.433
Southwest 747 41.48% 31.82 59.44% -1.05 0.099 -0.933
West 7708 40.38% 37.85 64.41% 0.115 1.0555 0.951

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 29594 0.0% 15.62 60.45% -0.922 -0.0413 -0.322
Not Using Events or Tokens 93551 31.18% 19.92 68.13% 0.058 0.3838 0.049
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8521 8.78% 31.31 88.76% 0.13 -0.4105 -1.567
Start of Game Growth 10748 11.41% 30.8 86.62% 0.597 0.2781 0.007
Unlimited Undo 20992 24.47% 26.08 79.5% 0.277 0.263 0.879
Using Tokens but Not Events 20445 25.01% 25.78 76.97% 0.677 0.62 0.222

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 18334 100.0% 31.93 100.0% 0.668 0.515 0.292
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4805 100.0% 27.3 100.0% -0.346 -0.2248 -0.046
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3229 100.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.031 -0.1345 0.164
Downpour Drenches the World 120 100.0% 26.49 100.0% 0.638 0.8218 0.305
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 94 100.0% 22.26 100.0% 0.737 -0.0012 -1.005
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3179 100.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.614 0.03 -0.173
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2929 100.0% 29.27 100.0% -0.01 -0.4816 0.005
Finder of Paths Unseen 72 100.0% 25.46 100.0% -0.149 0.5312 1.161
Fractured Days Split the Sky 448 100.0% 33.52 100.0% -0.885 -0.2162 -0.087
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 341 100.0% 27.86 100.0% -0.004 -0.0987 -0.019
Heart of the Wildfire 5393 100.0% 26.99 100.0% -0.155 0.0905 -0.114
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7671 100.0% 32.86 100.0% 0.164 -0.2894 0.195
Lightning's Swift Strike 20721 102.3% 24.55 100.98% -0.149 0.0586 -0.084
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 67 59.65% 25.67 50.75% -0.229 -0.9289 -0.576
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 255 35.86% 29.27 69.02% -0.945 -1.166 1.252
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 460 33.63% 30.86 80.22% -0.293 -0.4178 0.491
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 810 100.0% 29.36 100.0% -0.11 -0.2646 -0.45
Many Minds Move as One 684 100.0% 29.48 100.0% 1.293 1.0733 0.323
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10642 100.0% 33.6 100.0% 0.303 0.3009 1.038
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3103 100.0% 28.05 100.0% 0.604 0.473 0.083
River Surges in Sunlight 19792 102.14% 27.36 100.76% -0.266 -0.2581 0.105
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 546 28.63% 32.06 78.39% -0.213 0.0429 -0.188
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 82 32.89% 22.7 60.98% -0.257 -0.383 -0.985
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7672 100.0% 37.82 100.0% -0.107 -0.3383 0.414
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9612 102.89% 22.87 101.18% -0.478 -0.0213 -0.24
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 31 39.29% 15.97 58.06% -0.483 -0.4881 -0.198
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 16 30.77% 13.56 37.5% -0.714 -0.7051 -0.139
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 209 43.84% 26.41 76.56% 0.251 0.1807 -0.935
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 226 36.11% 26.96 81.86% -0.052 0.0011 0.47
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5071 100.24% 31.69 100.08% -0.09 -0.2172 0.382
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 20 40.0% 18.45 80.0% 0.488 0.1113 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 482 100.0% 30.89 100.0% 0.04 0.4463 -0.057
Shroud of Silent Mist 388 100.0% 24.93 100.0% -0.939 -0.6236 0.112
Starlight Seeks its Form 443 100.0% 26.22 100.0% 0.243 -0.0272 -0.44
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1668 100.0% 28.01 100.0% 0.954 0.4569 -0.569
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2562 100.0% 29.69 100.0% 0.176 0.2063 1.037
Thunderspeaker 10545 100.1% 28.03 100.09% 0.133 0.1116 -0.249
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 18 38.89% 15.39 44.44% 0.246 0.1798 -0.747
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1070 100.0% 26.81 100.0% -0.249 -0.1939 -0.224
Volcano Looming High 636 100.0% 26.56 100.0% -0.423 -0.4044 0.014

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.67%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.78%
Guard the Healing Land 92.15%
Rituals of Destruction 81.9%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 35567 20.97 22.96%
II 72960 31.03 67.37%
III 67839 34.74 78.01%
IV 25961 38.02 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8166
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 52014
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 47909
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25571
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2973
Lose: Invader deck ran out 16523
Lose: Adversary condition 12786
Win: Sacrifice victory 469
Lose: Scenario condition 1888
Win: Scenario condition 1881
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31408
Lose: Spirit destroyed 739

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.482 Win Model: -0.099

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.235 Win Model: 0.038
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 116127 37.0% 21.39 62.45%
2 49463 39.07% 24.2 70.05%
3 17447 35.11% 28.78 76.27%
4 18105 28.23% 33.39 80.35%
5 151 27.27% 31.19 84.11%
6 1034 14.64% 28.89 83.08%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-30 03:47:42 (Pacific Time)