Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 7.14% 23.29 85.71% 0.218 -0.0597 0.0
Blitz 0 2085 34.94% 26.24 66.19% 0.305 0.4827 0.297
Dahan Insurrection 4 1444 28.17% 45.16 64.2% 0.102 -0.2925 1.005
Despicable Theft 2 48 45.83% 27.88 43.75% -0.296 0.4995 -0.685
Elemental Invocation 1 72 46.48% 23.38 48.61% -0.191 0.5282 -0.35
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5808 15.2% 39.83 66.27% 0.81 0.1699 0.703
Powers Long Forgotten 1 593 49.24% 34.16 58.68% 0.098 0.7356 -1.211
Rituals of Terror 3 597 42.32% 37.06 63.15% -0.463 -0.3115 0.406
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 426 61.14% 31.95 55.63% -1.585 -0.5054 -0.421
Second Wave 0 5927 34.82% 26.58 72.99% 0.387 0.4544 0.099
The Great River 3 55 38.46% 25.11 43.64% -1.072 0.176 -0.147
Varied Terrains 2 11 27.27% 17.64 36.36% -0.391 0.242 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 620 41.72% 30.9 54.68% -0.409 0.6803 -0.804

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 112787 36.29% 20.94 62.58% 0.23 0.3255 -0.302
1 Thematic 4759 48.55% 28.86 51.88% 0.356 0.8651 -0.583
2 Archipelago 20 30.0% 22.95 65.0% -0.298 -0.019 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 34305 40.55% 23.36 68.67% 0.315 0.4143 0.406
2 Coastline 4242 30.34% 23.41 76.21% 0.778 0.6469 0.589
2 Fragment 1143 40.41% 21.1 68.85% 0.3 0.0453 0.621
2 Heart 1216 17.03% 23.2 84.7% -0.334 -0.6201 -0.69
2 Opposite Shores 5635 36.23% 25.04 71.96% 0.42 0.4599 0.002
2 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.312 0.7966 0.0
2 Thematic 2629 45.63% 33.82 60.75% -0.523 -0.1091 -0.785
2 Top to Top 892 44.79% 23.35 69.62% -0.019 -0.1652 1.258
3 Archipelago 15 53.33% 29.73 53.33% 0.0 -1.5848 0.0
3 Coastline 67 30.91% 26.99 70.15% 0.013 -0.5474 0.635
3 Other 610 37.83% 22.67 72.3% 0.045 0.5997 -0.338
3 Round (Default) 16200 34.62% 28.59 76.73% 0.776 0.6515 0.328
3 Sunrise 59 43.14% 30.07 83.05% 0.0 0.2702 0.967
3 Thematic 677 43.54% 34.4 61.0% -1.079 -1.0086 -0.129
4 Archipelago 18 41.18% 29.78 77.78% -0.755 -1.3278 0.036
4 Coastline 40 22.86% 27.27 82.5% 0.69 0.8801 -0.017
4 Leaf 86 30.0% 27.67 86.05% 1.558 1.1855 0.575
4 Other 458 34.05% 28.19 79.04% 0.356 -0.7038 0.28
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 5 80.0% 38.8 60.0% 0.522 0.1625 0.0
4 Thematic 3072 28.29% 46.27 77.57% 0.668 0.367 -0.552
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14588 27.83% 30.41 80.29% 0.759 0.6242 0.067
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1464 0.0
5 Coastline 13 0.0% 28.92 100.0% 0.044 -0.6351 0.178
5 Other 237 32.27% 34.8 88.19% 0.921 0.6561 0.663
5 Thematic 66 19.7% 63.41 93.94% -0.443 -0.3545 0.998
6 Archipelago 34 20.0% 31.03 91.18% -0.789 -0.44 0.065
6 Coastline 52 0.0% 27.35 96.15% -0.23 -0.941 -0.09
6 Other 193 9.94% 29.78 86.53% -0.68 -1.094 -0.746
6 Star 39 36.84% 24.18 66.67% -0.338 -0.4175 -0.323
6 Thematic 176 22.73% 35.02 68.75% -1.212 -0.9496 -1.804
6 Two Centers (Default) 609 11.78% 26.66 82.43% -0.417 -0.3362 -1.433
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 27.5 50.0% -0.815 -0.8964 -0.269
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.199 -0.4566 -0.677

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3981 24.63 40.74% 0.106 0.3367 -0.123
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3627 26.47 47.28% -0.263 -0.3219 0.201
All Things Weaken 1222 23.22 37.15% -0.568 -0.1899 -0.308
Attenuated Essence 30 20.47 40.0% 0.034 0.1142 0.785
Back Against the Wall 3518 26.34 44.26% 0.377 0.4263 0.061
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 21 15.86 33.33% 0.055 0.2518 -0.408
Burn Brightest Before the End 23 19.87 43.48% -0.144 0.0496 0.079
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3715 21.88 37.07% -0.407 0.0063 -0.425
Downward Spiral 15914 19.2 43.67% -0.371 -0.1274 -0.21
Erosion of Will 3858 23.14 38.54% -0.457 -0.1482 -0.083
Intensifying Exploitation 29 12.59 20.69% -0.843 -0.5642 -0.703
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 435 26.96 56.09% -0.03 -0.5368 0.522
Memory Fades to Dust 15974 19.01 40.85% -0.465 -0.1223 -0.528
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1201 22.78 38.97% -0.305 -0.0689 -0.378
Promising Farmlands 3894 22.74 38.32% -0.744 -0.2907 -0.279
Shattered Fragments of Power 32 14.41 37.5% -0.624 -0.5723 -0.264
Slow Dissolution of Will 23 18.65 34.78% -0.242 0.1483 -0.211
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 309 28.28 74.11% 0.87 0.1597 0.547
The Border of Life and Death 7 14.86 42.86% -0.22 -0.5966 -0.2
Thriving Communities 1128 22.63 37.94% -0.935 -0.5878 0.008
Thriving Crops 9 20.0 55.56% 0.167 -0.0342 -0.466
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 0.0 -0.382
Unnatural Proliferation 1258 25.55 43.48% 0.3 0.4954 0.062
Untended Land Crumbles 1193 21.68 35.46% -0.195 0.072 -0.732

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 65249 35.99% 23.64 68.79% -0.3 0.4575 -0.488
B 67689 34.21% 24.61 71.02% -0.24 0.4986 -0.144
C 69517 33.03% 24.5 71.2% -0.171 0.4157 -0.039
D 65743 34.05% 24.35 70.62% -0.146 0.5698 -0.428
E 10196 36.31% 26.54 71.69% 0.069 0.6444 0.027
F 17551 36.18% 27.18 71.93% 0.106 0.7825 0.402
G 15250 36.46% 26.54 71.53% -0.096 0.5634 -0.266
H 15640 35.31% 27.0 72.11% -0.069 0.5071 -0.002
East 8524 37.66% 38.25 66.17% -0.022 0.5409 0.297
Northeast 6262 35.18% 40.34 69.72% 0.036 0.701 0.111
Northwest 5470 35.61% 40.6 68.85% -0.614 0.1998 -0.108
Southeast 757 34.04% 33.89 66.58% -0.384 0.3395 -0.49
Southwest 769 40.29% 31.0 57.87% -1.312 -0.3086 -0.951
West 7774 40.19% 37.63 64.1% -0.235 0.6872 0.974

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 30067 0.0% 15.47 59.9% -0.824 -0.054 -0.281
Not Using Events or Tokens 95313 31.01% 19.75 67.55% -0.227 0.1478 0.033
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8621 8.76% 31.15 88.41% 0.282 -0.3555 -1.537
Start of Game Growth 10881 11.5% 30.66 86.3% 0.493 0.182 0.003
Unlimited Undo 21198 24.34% 25.99 79.24% 0.224 0.2012 0.872
Using Tokens but Not Events 20652 24.98% 25.69 76.76% 0.403 0.3967 0.134

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 18547 100.0% 31.82 100.0% 0.779 0.6339 0.289
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4845 100.0% 27.21 100.0% -0.145 -0.0124 -0.033
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3275 100.0% 27.45 100.0% 0.056 -0.0829 0.182
Downpour Drenches the World 132 100.0% 26.39 100.0% 0.548 0.7344 0.363
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 110 100.0% 21.85 100.0% 0.403 -0.3787 -1.19
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3213 100.0% 30.36 100.0% 0.469 -0.1213 -0.167
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2962 100.0% 29.21 100.0% 0.541 0.0479 0.036
Finder of Paths Unseen 74 100.0% 25.58 100.0% 0.451 1.1203 1.157
Fractured Days Split the Sky 454 100.0% 33.21 100.0% -0.789 -0.1991 -0.104
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 370 100.0% 27.75 100.0% 0.161 0.0801 -0.002
Heart of the Wildfire 5424 100.0% 26.95 100.0% 0.242 0.4774 -0.094
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7715 100.0% 32.81 100.0% 0.308 -0.1307 0.236
Lightning's Swift Strike 21109 102.3% 24.3 100.99% -0.245 -0.0496 -0.085
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 70 56.67% 24.94 50.0% -0.9 -1.3996 -0.572
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 258 35.83% 29.21 68.99% -0.546 -0.7189 1.287
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 463 33.41% 30.66 79.7% -0.459 -0.5637 0.516
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 823 100.0% 29.18 100.0% 0.155 0.0186 -0.431
Many Minds Move as One 692 100.0% 29.19 100.0% 0.12 -0.0909 0.348
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10774 100.0% 33.46 100.0% 0.513 0.4756 1.056
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3144 100.0% 27.87 100.0% 0.159 -0.0097 0.098
River Surges in Sunlight 20177 102.18% 27.11 100.8% -0.3 -0.2307 0.133
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 560 28.81% 31.75 78.04% -0.379 -0.0865 -0.1
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 92 32.56% 22.36 58.7% -0.416 -0.5525 -1.052
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7729 100.0% 37.64 100.0% -0.096 -0.3187 0.419
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9865 102.86% 22.52 101.19% -0.546 -0.0334 -0.303
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 33 36.67% 17.36 60.61% -0.119 -0.1909 -0.209
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 16 30.77% 13.56 37.5% -0.491 -0.5743 -0.083
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 212 44.17% 26.4 76.42% 0.036 0.0201 -0.95
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 229 36.07% 26.67 80.79% -0.2 -0.0375 0.476
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5108 100.33% 31.6 100.1% 0.151 -0.0356 0.391
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 26 34.62% 19.38 80.77% 0.954 0.5428 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 500 100.0% 30.45 100.0% 0.066 0.4141 -0.033
Shroud of Silent Mist 398 100.0% 24.79 100.0% -0.974 -0.725 0.127
Starlight Seeks its Form 478 100.0% 25.08 100.0% -0.511 -0.76 -0.695
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1699 100.0% 27.97 100.0% 1.06 0.5691 -0.558
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2601 100.0% 29.6 100.0% 0.366 0.4404 1.05
Thunderspeaker 10641 100.13% 27.93 100.12% 0.18 0.1484 -0.239
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 23 33.33% 15.17 43.48% 0.406 0.3449 -0.708
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1074 100.0% 26.77 100.0% -0.49 -0.4095 -0.206
Volcano Looming High 643 100.0% 26.45 100.0% -0.441 -0.4774 -0.017

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.7%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.93%
Guard the Healing Land 92.19%
Rituals of Destruction 81.98%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36841 20.44 22.41%
II 73696 31.01 67.31%
III 68367 34.76 78.01%
IV 26130 38.06 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8257
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 52428
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 48357
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25739
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 4179
Lose: Invader deck ran out 16643
Lose: Adversary condition 12843
Win: Sacrifice victory 469
Lose: Scenario condition 1896
Win: Scenario condition 1892
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31590
Lose: Spirit destroyed 741

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.324 Win Model: -0.093

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.239 Win Model: 0.076
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 117671 36.87% 21.26 62.13%
2 50114 38.93% 24.05 69.68%
3 17639 35.09% 28.65 76.03%
4 18359 28.01% 33.16 79.95%
5 166 25.17% 29.26 78.92%
6 1085 14.39% 28.43 82.12%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-11 04:23:09 (Pacific Time)