Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 7.69% 21.69 84.62% 0.14 -0.0348 0.0
Blitz 0 1948 35.96% 26.26 66.74% 0.419 0.7102 0.202
Dahan Insurrection 4 1398 28.24% 45.58 64.74% -0.373 -0.616 0.993
Despicable Theft 2 44 47.73% 28.89 45.45% -0.424 0.1999 -0.666
Elemental Invocation 1 64 47.62% 24.89 50.0% -0.481 0.3427 -0.354
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5675 15.37% 40.15 66.63% 0.273 -0.2375 0.696
Powers Long Forgotten 1 584 49.48% 34.39 58.73% -0.28 0.1065 -1.194
Rituals of Terror 3 584 42.68% 37.61 64.04% -0.142 -0.3441 0.421
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 415 62.29% 32.67 56.87% 0.195 1.0062 -0.415
Second Wave 0 5762 34.93% 26.73 73.31% 0.489 0.6275 0.098
The Great River 3 48 42.22% 26.17 45.83% -0.81 0.691 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 8 37.5% 20.5 37.5% -0.667 -0.1549 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 592 41.49% 31.59 55.24% -0.272 0.6621 -0.825

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 109137 36.58% 21.26 63.43% 0.218 0.5304 -0.357
1 Thematic 4656 48.72% 29.04 52.19% -0.218 0.4511 -0.693
2 Archipelago 19 31.58% 24.16 68.42% 0.0 0.8772 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 33119 40.84% 23.75 69.74% 0.325 0.5758 0.395
2 Coastline 4107 30.45% 23.63 76.87% 0.419 0.6067 0.575
2 Fragment 1097 40.87% 21.46 69.83% 0.487 0.5043 0.598
2 Heart 1205 16.73% 23.37 85.31% 0.044 -0.0453 -0.734
2 Opposite Shores 5471 36.71% 25.41 72.75% 0.54 0.7584 -0.035
2 Thematic 2583 45.79% 34.12 61.32% -1.306 -0.6375 -0.819
2 Top to Top 857 45.33% 23.66 70.48% -0.692 -0.4354 1.22
3 Archipelago 14 57.14% 30.36 57.14% -0.065 -0.4681 0.0
3 Coastline 64 32.69% 27.88 71.88% 0.647 0.3334 0.633
3 Other 587 38.22% 22.92 73.59% 0.353 -0.1929 -0.352
3 Round (Default) 15700 34.7% 28.94 77.36% 0.858 0.8776 0.334
3 Sunrise 59 43.14% 30.07 83.05% 0.0 -0.6049 0.955
3 Thematic 655 44.24% 35.26 62.6% -1.679 -1.8877 -0.068
4 Archipelago 17 43.75% 31.53 82.35% 0.0 0.1681 0.021
4 Coastline 39 20.59% 26.54 82.05% 0.272 0.2777 -0.008
4 Leaf 77 28.17% 28.82 84.42% 0.406 -0.0571 0.558
4 Other 439 34.07% 28.94 80.41% -0.555 -1.2422 0.335
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 -0.1864 0.0
4 Snake 4 75.0% 37.75 50.0% 0.0 0.4972 0.0
4 Thematic 3021 28.37% 46.68 77.95% 0.421 0.3831 -0.547
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14101 28.2% 30.81 81.32% 0.566 0.4177 0.076
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.918 0.0
5 Coastline 12 0.0% 28.92 100.0% 0.476 0.2896 0.179
5 Other 224 31.88% 35.74 90.18% 0.56 0.1245 0.538
5 Thematic 65 20.0% 64.38 95.38% 0.638 0.2471 1.116
6 Archipelago 32 23.08% 32.19 93.75% -0.855 -0.6138 0.066
6 Coastline 44 0.0% 27.61 97.73% -0.022 -0.6477 0.0
6 Other 171 6.04% 31.78 91.23% 0.421 0.0609 -0.714
6 Star 22 28.57% 27.82 81.82% -0.51 0.1286 -0.296
6 Thematic 155 23.23% 38.63 75.48% -1.396 -1.2173 -1.589
6 Two Centers (Default) 512 12.5% 28.47 87.7% -0.683 -0.1696 -1.315
7 Archipelago 5 60.0% 33.0 60.0% 0.0 -1.3704 -0.341
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.645 -0.659

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3935 24.68 40.74% -0.558 0.1677 -0.121
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3585 26.57 47.39% -0.634 -0.1176 0.192
All Things Weaken 1179 23.4 37.49% -0.586 0.258 -0.301
Attenuated Essence 11 12.09 27.27% -1.122 -0.4092 -0.165
Back Against the Wall 3478 26.36 44.05% -0.456 0.1381 0.046
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 17.17 16.67% -0.962 0.0766 -0.368
Burn Brightest Before the End 8 25.75 62.5% 0.246 1.0709 0.473
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3656 21.94 37.09% -0.704 0.221 -0.415
Downward Spiral 15441 19.41 44.03% -1.131 -0.3893 -0.238
Erosion of Will 3811 23.24 38.57% -0.782 0.0777 -0.086
Intensifying Exploitation 10 12.0 10.0% -1.404 -0.3997 -0.351
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 426 27.05 56.1% -0.325 -0.5231 0.496
Memory Fades to Dust 15569 19.19 41.08% -1.219 -0.3335 -0.534
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1150 22.91 38.87% -0.932 -0.2351 -0.363
Promising Farmlands 3834 22.89 38.55% -0.364 0.5852 -0.302
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 11.09 36.36% -1.134 -0.4521 -0.145
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 24.25 25.0% -0.288 0.7741 -0.358
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 298 28.17 73.83% 0.348 -0.0977 0.39
The Border of Life and Death 3 16.33 33.33% -0.473 -0.2304 -0.2
Thriving Communities 1091 22.9 38.5% -1.701 -0.7726 0.05
Thriving Crops 3 13.67 33.33% -0.646 -0.0464 0.0
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 -0.0768 -0.397
Unnatural Proliferation 1219 25.58 43.48% -0.908 -0.1907 0.034
Untended Land Crumbles 1156 21.74 35.38% -1.229 -0.4409 -0.733

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 62882 36.35% 24.03 69.8% -0.688 0.2124 -0.495
B 65488 34.48% 24.99 72.02% -0.603 0.2001 -0.142
C 67239 33.33% 24.86 72.15% -0.503 0.1446 -0.052
D 63580 34.35% 24.71 71.56% -0.431 0.4245 -0.449
E 9639 36.81% 26.99 72.6% -0.293 0.4014 0.054
F 16879 36.4% 27.56 72.68% -0.266 0.5132 0.424
G 14654 36.73% 26.92 72.31% -0.309 0.4512 -0.291
H 15056 35.72% 27.41 72.74% -0.528 0.1901 0.013
East 8339 37.85% 38.7 66.79% 0.068 0.8879 0.352
Northeast 6114 35.24% 40.83 70.43% 0.281 1.2062 0.137
Northwest 5359 35.9% 41.1 69.45% -0.105 0.5108 -0.098
Southeast 725 34.85% 34.95 68.55% 0.226 0.9375 -0.426
Southwest 720 40.95% 32.4 60.97% -1.615 -0.3432 -0.933
West 7604 40.44% 38.11 64.79% -0.71 0.3874 0.968

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28900 0.0% 15.82 61.24% -1.193 0.058 -0.318
Not Using Events or Tokens 91193 31.35% 20.17 68.96% 0.261 0.4951 0.03
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8364 8.76% 31.58 89.45% 0.588 -0.0177 -1.392
Start of Game Growth 10559 11.42% 31.01 87.2% 0.624 0.169 0.016
Unlimited Undo 20640 24.59% 26.27 79.99% 0.375 0.1832 0.866
Using Tokens but Not Events 20155 25.07% 25.87 77.17% 0.574 0.5373 0.199

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 17994 100.0% 32.13 100.0% 0.542 0.414 0.23
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4741 100.0% 27.47 100.0% -0.326 -0.2847 -0.112
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3142 100.0% 27.89 100.0% -0.057 -0.2062 0.082
Downpour Drenches the World 92 100.0% 27.04 100.0% 0.719 0.9957 0.645
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 45 100.0% 23.91 100.0% 0.982 0.6047 -0.278
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3119 100.0% 30.6 100.0% 0.486 -0.0266 -0.25
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2873 100.0% 29.47 100.0% -0.362 -0.8058 -0.107
Finder of Paths Unseen 57 100.0% 27.63 100.0% -0.756 -0.1373 1.081
Fractured Days Split the Sky 434 100.0% 34.24 100.0% -0.382 0.114 -0.182
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 303 100.0% 28.23 100.0% 0.378 0.239 -0.158
Heart of the Wildfire 5330 100.0% 27.13 100.0% -0.11 0.0756 -0.18
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7569 100.0% 33.07 100.0% 0.225 -0.3368 0.099
Lightning's Swift Strike 20229 102.18% 24.8 100.84% -0.263 0.0033 -0.18
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 48 71.79% 31.63 62.5% 0.864 0.0943 -0.215
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 244 36.67% 30.21 70.9% -0.777 -1.1653 1.154
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 438 34.28% 31.42 81.74% -0.385 -0.6428 0.423
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 771 100.0% 29.85 100.0% 0.178 -0.0142 -0.557
Many Minds Move as One 669 100.0% 29.42 100.0% 1.148 0.796 0.257
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10448 100.0% 33.86 100.0% 0.139 0.0542 0.942
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3034 100.0% 28.25 100.0% 0.184 0.0858 0.019
River Surges in Sunlight 19346 102.01% 27.65 100.64% -0.065 -0.1468 0.021
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 527 29.5% 32.7 79.89% -0.204 -0.037 -0.292
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 59 35.85% 25.51 71.19% 0.041 -0.1953 -0.623
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7598 100.0% 38.01 100.0% -0.404 -0.5679 0.321
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9359 102.73% 23.24 100.99% -0.437 -0.02 -0.286
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 26 47.83% 17.35 61.54% -0.687 -0.6211 -0.207
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 9 28.57% 19.0 44.44% -0.915 -0.9072 -0.19
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 193 42.78% 26.61 78.76% 0.231 0.1794 -1.071
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 216 35.92% 27.34 82.87% 0.119 0.2566 0.628
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5018 100.06% 31.88 100.04% -0.18 -0.372 0.322
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 9 66.67% 16.22 77.78% 0.173 0.1196 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 441 100.0% 32.25 100.0% 0.188 0.4486 -0.121
Shroud of Silent Mist 374 100.0% 25.51 100.0% -0.389 -0.1071 0.275
Starlight Seeks its Form 393 100.0% 28.08 100.0% 0.151 -0.0272 -0.257
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1609 100.0% 28.16 100.0% 0.691 0.1794 -0.692
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2481 100.0% 29.98 100.0% -0.389 -0.3178 0.955
Thunderspeaker 10365 100.04% 28.24 100.04% 0.369 0.3104 -0.324
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 6 33.33% 7.33 33.33% -0.69 -0.5448 -0.402
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1049 100.0% 27.02 100.0% 0.453 0.4327 -0.299
Volcano Looming High 600 100.0% 26.98 100.0% -0.305 -0.3088 -0.075

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.62%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.63%
Guard the Healing Land 92.11%
Rituals of Destruction 81.77%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33732 21.93 23.96%
II 71988 31.09 67.49%
III 66951 34.71 78.02%
IV 25668 37.98 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8082
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 51341
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 47363
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25282
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1280
Lose: Invader deck ran out 16327
Lose: Adversary condition 12695
Win: Sacrifice victory 459
Lose: Scenario condition 1874
Win: Scenario condition 1858
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31044
Lose: Spirit destroyed 734

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.909 Win Model: -0.119

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.274 Win Model: 0.185
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 113894 37.17% 21.58 62.95%
2 48492 39.19% 24.43 70.64%
3 17092 35.2% 29.01 76.71%
4 17791 28.3% 33.62 80.87%
5 141 25.41% 32.12 86.52%
6 929 13.83% 30.35 86.98%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-15 02:23:33 (Pacific Time)