Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 2108 38.52% 22.8 -0.029 63.9% -0.443 0.123
Dahan Insurrection 4 1911 28.92% 45.18 -0.031 64.57% -0.561 -0.1606
Despicable Theft 2 32 56.25% 29.13 -0.088 46.88% -0.835 -0.5611
Elemental Invocation 1 92 52.75% 28.93 -0.065 50.0% -0.545 -0.0424
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7630 15.86% 39.97 -0.005 67.01% -0.169 0.1956
Powers Long Forgotten 1 888 48.42% 35.0 -0.045 61.04% -0.436 0.0106
Rituals of Terror 3 806 40.86% 36.71 -0.031 61.79% -0.418 0.2274
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 610 64.03% 32.08 -0.04 55.9% -0.327 0.3201
Second Wave 0 7464 37.34% 26.79 0.001 72.16% -0.377 0.0525
The Great River 3 62 44.26% 24.26 -0.189 30.65% -2.065 -0.5917
Ward the Shores 2 849 42.77% 31.85 -0.069 53.83% -0.851 0.1806

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 93385 37.3% 21.73 -0.02 63.43% -0.864 -0.7774
1 Thematic 4450 48.98% 29.02 -0.055 51.46% -1.095 -0.8184
2 Archipelago 9 22.22% 27.0 0.04 77.78% -0.054 -0.0473
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 28967 41.42% 24.43 0.009 70.37% -0.29 -0.2645
2 Coastline 3472 32.31% 23.96 0.025 75.84% -0.242 -0.2669
2 Fragment 938 39.75% 22.25 0.006 71.54% -0.437 -0.2141
2 Heart 1137 15.56% 23.62 0.055 86.63% -0.15 -0.0497
2 Opposite Shores 4882 37.43% 25.88 0.012 72.12% -0.298 -0.233
2 Thematic 2362 45.12% 34.47 -0.012 63.04% -0.48 -0.5463
2 Top to Top 755 46.47% 24.38 0.016 71.26% -0.161 -0.2298
3 Archipelago 3 33.33% 30.0 -0.002 66.67% -0.144 0.6606
3 Coastline 56 39.58% 28.82 -0.002 69.64% -0.116 -0.267
3 Other 530 37.9% 24.0 -0.009 72.26% -0.528 -0.3552
3 Round (Default) 14304 35.84% 29.61 0.026 76.77% 0.152 0.1129
3 Sunrise 51 42.86% 30.84 0.053 84.31% 0.416 0.1556
3 Thematic 616 45.26% 35.17 -0.029 62.66% -0.557 -0.9233
4 Archipelago 6 50.0% 26.83 -0.099 50.0% -0.508 0.04
4 Coastline 32 16.67% 26.19 0.018 81.25% 0.044 0.1639
4 Leaf 70 33.85% 28.77 0.028 80.0% 0.412 0.4838
4 Other 383 33.24% 30.28 0.03 83.03% 0.298 0.2286
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 0.063 100.0% 0.535 -0.2674
4 Snake 6 83.33% 34.5 -0.007 66.67% 0.124 0.2503
4 Thematic 2839 28.99% 47.22 0.027 77.67% 0.3 -0.6972
4 Trapezoid (Default) 12418 29.42% 30.81 0.023 81.15% 0.282 0.2898
5 Other 131 40.46% 37.95 0.082 90.84% 1.228 0.7675
5 Thematic 59 13.56% 68.07 0.147 98.31% 2.258 -0.1334
6 Archipelago 1 100.0% 34.0 0.111 100.0% 0.098 0.4639
6 Other 1 100.0% 39.0 0.176 100.0% 0.3 0.1224

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3682 25.07 -0.14 40.25% -1.79 0.2792
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3363 27.15 -0.107 47.93% -1.493 0.4198
All Things Weaken 1127 23.9 -0.159 36.2% -1.988 0.1715
Back Against the Wall 3305 26.97 -0.123 44.08% -1.618 0.4691
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3435 22.46 -0.155 37.0% -1.927 0.2952
Downward Spiral 12955 19.84 -0.141 44.4% -1.839 0.1828
Erosion of Will 3587 23.81 -0.148 38.86% -1.882 0.3255
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 433 28.01 -0.078 53.35% -1.175 -0.4966
Memory Fades to Dust 13021 19.53 -0.157 41.56% -1.985 0.2304
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1159 23.71 -0.146 38.74% -1.842 0.1795
Promising Farmlands 3612 23.49 -0.148 38.76% -1.87 0.3382
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 303 28.3 -0.022 66.67% -0.696 -0.2849
Thriving Communities 1097 23.89 -0.142 39.02% -1.784 0.3036
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 -0.138 41.01% -1.759 0.4658
Unnatural Proliferation 1235 26.62 -0.123 43.56% -1.63 0.4504
Untended Land Crumbles 1158 22.79 -0.164 34.8% -2.041 0.0614

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 30452 40.25% 22.03 -0.016 64.34% 0.27 -0.418
B 33302 36.08% 23.67 0.006 69.29% 0.462 -0.3215
C 36139 33.96% 23.78 0.01 69.94% 0.477 -0.5359
D 32731 35.53% 23.7 0.006 69.09% 0.456 -0.3219
E 5234 41.51% 27.28 0.007 66.39% 0.61 -0.2847
F 8684 38.33% 27.11 0.01 68.79% 0.588 -0.2527
G 7074 40.52% 25.71 -0.007 66.13% 0.353 -0.4786
H 7483 39.77% 26.5 0.003 67.75% 0.499 -0.3404
East 2128 43.41% 34.75 -0.016 62.5% 0.382 -0.194
Northeast 2656 39.96% 35.65 -0.014 64.61% 0.339 -0.1856
Northwest 2105 45.23% 33.97 -0.034 59.52% 0.183 -0.4119
Southeast 273 41.54% 33.71 -0.006 64.47% 0.512 -0.117
Southwest 252 50.4% 26.35 -0.065 51.19% -0.105 -0.3036
West 2282 39.43% 44.07 -0.006 64.77% 0.535 0.2081

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 23509 0.0% 16.18 -0.055 62.69% -1.163 0.8898
Not Using Events or Tokens 72471 31.39% 20.3 0.012 69.91% -0.07 0.1452
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7238 8.9% 31.68 0.066 89.44% 0.84 0.1535
Start of Game Growth 9094 11.86% 30.94 0.058 87.08% 0.566 0.0974
Unlimited Undo 17722 24.93% 26.55 0.039 79.8% 0.331 -0.0919
Using Tokens but Not Events 17621 25.43% 25.77 0.036 76.56% 0.123 0.0719

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 15224 22.43% 32.23 0.036 80.81% 0.074 0.1785
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4259 49.25% 27.75 -0.003 70.3% -0.245 -0.0467
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2629 34.39% 28.85 0.027 77.79% 0.023 -0.0905
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2738 30.27% 31.21 0.04 80.79% 0.268 -0.1358
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2449 32.75% 29.87 0.035 79.67% 0.189 -0.1165
Fractured Days Split the Sky 496 38.18% 34.68 0.008 70.56% -0.116 0.2324
Heart of the Wildfire 4973 52.69% 27.24 -0.008 67.97% -0.234 0.0851
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7020 33.51% 33.64 0.04 79.19% 0.323 -0.0197
Lightning's Swift Strike 17659 35.43% 25.31 0.007 74.87% -0.27 -0.0442
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 712 40.59% 31.72 0.033 76.83% 0.252 -0.0352
Many Minds Move as One 639 39.97% 30.66 0.025 76.21% 0.08 -0.4531
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8860 33.34% 34.0 0.04 78.89% 0.364 0.1397
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2573 34.38% 29.17 0.021 76.33% -0.047 -0.0333
River Surges in Sunlight 16431 30.75% 27.87 0.008 75.87% -0.299 -0.1785
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6960 31.67% 38.31 0.027 75.99% 0.185 0.2878
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8502 44.44% 24.27 -0.0 72.48% -0.297 0.1081
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4681 37.16% 32.22 0.019 74.81% 0.008 -0.1045
Shifting Memory of Ages 152 48.0% 33.3 0.012 69.74% -0.005 0.1191
Shroud of Silent Mist 266 44.27% 28.75 0.021 75.19% -0.047 0.0094
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1677 42.88% 30.56 0.003 70.42% -0.157 -0.2169
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2039 31.22% 31.24 0.032 79.45% 0.057 0.2178
Thunderspeaker 8882 34.14% 28.73 0.021 76.45% -0.052 -0.0283
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1033 58.05% 28.02 0.006 69.51% -0.068 -0.0956
Volcano Looming High 427 50.36% 28.32 0.017 72.37% 0.03 0.0408

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 87.79%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 76.94%
Guard the Healing Land 91.43%
Rituals of Destruction 80.86%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 28514 22.37 23.43%
II 61549 30.88 66.66%
III 58343 34.39 77.92%
IV 23463 37.55 99.25%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4721
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 31860
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 28613
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16620
Lose: Invader deck ran out 14077
Lose: Adversary condition 11981
Win: Sacrifice victory 387
Lose: Scenario condition 1732
Win: Scenario condition 1690
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26974
Lose: Spirit destroyed 649

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.154 Win Model: -0.187

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.013 Win Model: 0.085
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 97877 37.92% 22.06 62.88%
2 42567 39.73% 25.06 71.11%
3 15561 36.31% 29.67 76.11%
4 15864 29.4% 33.89 80.67%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.068 Win Model: -0.762
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 149053 26.05 69.17%
Power Progression 22816 15.03 58.52%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)