Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1797 38.43% 22.82 -0.03 63.61% -0.455 0.1173
Dahan Insurrection 4 1602 29.56% 45.4 -0.028 64.54% -0.513 -0.1123
Elemental Invocation 1 16 62.5% 30.5 0.029 68.75% 0.271 0.7363
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6442 14.93% 39.58 -0.005 67.49% -0.196 0.1795
Powers Long Forgotten 1 777 47.35% 35.87 -0.042 62.42% -0.42 0.0269
Rituals of Terror 3 713 40.0% 36.98 -0.03 62.13% -0.416 0.206
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 555 62.79% 32.48 -0.034 57.3% -0.291 0.3335
Second Wave 0 6459 38.15% 26.86 0.001 71.88% -0.367 0.0516
The Great River 3 28 40.74% 24.0 -0.213 28.57% -2.17 -0.6856
Ward the Shores 2 752 42.57% 32.05 -0.069 53.72% -0.851 0.18

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 77727 37.62% 21.79 -0.02 63.44% -0.674 -0.3192
1 Thematic 3615 49.49% 29.46 -0.055 51.4% -0.946 -0.4491
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 24442 41.24% 24.67 0.009 70.33% -0.217 -0.0274
2 Coastline 2701 33.97% 23.87 0.024 75.45% -0.166 -0.0307
2 Fragment 790 38.61% 22.48 0.009 72.28% -0.34 0.0857
2 Heart 1070 13.69% 23.82 0.061 88.41% 0.02 0.3105
2 Opposite Shores 4085 37.5% 26.08 0.011 71.77% -0.228 -0.0015
2 Thematic 2080 45.36% 34.55 -0.012 62.84% -0.437 -0.3925
2 Top to Top 603 47.35% 23.91 0.012 70.65% -0.13 -0.0133
3 Coastline 37 48.39% 29.35 -0.022 64.86% -0.284 -0.3215
3 Other 427 38.95% 23.73 -0.017 70.49% -0.614 -0.2122
3 Round (Default) 12276 35.62% 29.75 0.026 76.57% 0.106 0.1372
3 Sunrise 42 45.24% 29.74 0.052 83.33% 0.371 0.1177
3 Thematic 552 43.82% 35.54 -0.027 63.04% -0.612 -0.9506
4 Coastline 23 14.29% 27.61 0.016 82.61% -0.064 0.058
4 Leaf 56 29.63% 30.25 0.036 82.14% 0.368 0.4477
4 Other 310 32.01% 30.72 0.029 82.9% 0.147 0.2281
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 0.063 100.0% 0.508 -0.2842
4 Snake 6 83.33% 34.5 -0.006 66.67% 0.052 0.1774
4 Thematic 2441 29.69% 46.87 0.024 76.73% 0.086 -0.9918
4 Trapezoid (Default) 10505 29.25% 30.85 0.024 81.17% 0.173 0.1403
5 Other 87 36.78% 40.41 0.092 93.1% 1.338 1.1214
5 Thematic 33 21.21% 69.73 0.164 100.0% 2.051 -0.7166

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3155 25.21 -0.141 40.16% -1.795 0.2735
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2870 27.22 -0.109 47.63% -1.516 0.4006
All Things Weaken 791 23.98 -0.156 37.04% -1.97 0.1904
Back Against the Wall 2844 27.23 -0.123 44.13% -1.618 0.4743
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2981 22.54 -0.157 36.73% -1.942 0.2792
Downward Spiral 11080 20.1 -0.14 44.51% -1.813 0.2011
Erosion of Will 3121 23.96 -0.148 38.87% -1.893 0.318
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 288 27.72 -0.086 51.74% -1.251 -0.539
Memory Fades to Dust 11023 19.78 -0.157 41.47% -1.965 0.2507
Power Corrodes the Spirit 819 24.0 -0.144 38.95% -1.824 0.196
Promising Farmlands 3143 23.61 -0.15 38.47% -1.882 0.3321
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 199 28.69 -0.026 65.83% -0.738 -0.3214
Thriving Communities 730 23.89 -0.136 40.27% -1.719 0.3875
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 -0.138 41.01% -1.765 0.4515
Unnatural Proliferation 830 26.7 -0.124 43.37% -1.639 0.4412
Untended Land Crumbles 797 22.81 -0.163 35.01% -2.015 0.0804

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 25819 40.63% 22.21 -0.016 64.33% 0.278 -0.7948
B 28348 36.17% 23.84 0.007 69.35% 0.469 -0.695
C 30692 34.0% 23.99 0.01 69.91% 0.479 -0.9176
D 27860 35.79% 23.88 0.006 69.1% 0.458 -0.7003
E 3631 41.91% 27.37 0.009 66.62% 0.639 -0.6175
F 6729 37.96% 27.34 0.014 69.56% 0.635 -0.5908
G 5482 40.71% 25.87 -0.007 66.07% 0.358 -0.8543
H 5859 39.81% 26.81 0.004 67.76% 0.522 -0.6991
East 1882 43.76% 34.86 -0.02 61.05% 0.411 -0.5249
Northeast 2305 39.42% 35.92 -0.014 64.86% 0.374 -0.495
Northwest 1889 45.41% 33.95 -0.035 59.24% 0.224 -0.7207
Southeast 208 45.41% 33.67 0.007 65.38% 0.78 -0.2027
Southwest 196 52.58% 26.74 -0.059 52.04% 0.027 -0.5985
West 1940 40.26% 43.08 -0.007 64.02% 0.59 -0.0748

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 19518 0.0% 16.33 -0.049 63.54% -1.068 0.9713
Not Using Events or Tokens 59980 31.75% 20.37 0.012 70.03% -0.093 0.1272
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6174 8.74% 31.9 0.066 89.55% 0.87 0.1645
Start of Game Growth 7598 11.55% 31.23 0.057 87.0% 0.516 0.0567
Unlimited Undo 14672 25.12% 26.81 0.038 79.7% 0.319 -0.0838
Using Tokens but Not Events 14877 26.15% 25.58 0.033 75.82% 0.084 0.0381

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 13129 22.57% 32.14 0.036 80.78% 0.092 0.2381
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3799 49.64% 28.03 -0.003 69.91% -0.22 0.0167
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2112 34.79% 29.16 0.028 77.84% 0.044 -0.0425
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2165 30.82% 31.84 0.038 79.95% 0.265 -0.104
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1978 32.29% 30.21 0.036 79.88% 0.219 -0.0144
Fractured Days Split the Sky 339 39.23% 34.6 0.014 71.68% -0.042 0.292
Heart of the Wildfire 4518 52.26% 27.35 -0.008 67.86% -0.235 0.1125
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6191 33.33% 33.56 0.04 79.08% 0.31 0.0125
Lightning's Swift Strike 14877 35.1% 25.37 0.008 75.16% -0.249 0.0196
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 338 39.34% 31.09 0.035 77.51% 0.318 -0.0426
Many Minds Move as One 457 39.74% 30.37 0.028 76.59% 0.123 -0.39
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7723 33.15% 34.07 0.04 78.79% 0.381 0.1838
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2072 33.4% 29.34 0.02 76.16% -0.074 -0.0264
River Surges in Sunlight 13866 30.72% 28.2 0.008 75.82% -0.279 -0.1123
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6184 31.93% 37.82 0.025 75.5% 0.174 0.3233
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7204 44.73% 24.5 -0.003 71.86% -0.308 0.1416
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4246 37.33% 32.36 0.018 74.49% 0.013 -0.0514
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1167 42.3% 29.57 0.0 70.09% -0.228 -0.2465
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1635 31.27% 31.76 0.032 79.02% 0.086 0.3014
Thunderspeaker 7804 34.79% 28.96 0.02 75.87% -0.049 0.0111
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 765 58.82% 27.68 0.003 68.63% -0.075 -0.039
Volcano Looming High 131 50.77% 27.73 0.004 70.23% -0.137 -0.2378

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 87.95%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.53%
Guard the Healing Land 91.39%
Rituals of Destruction 81.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24068 22.34 23.73%
II 52005 30.71 66.9%
III 48315 34.23 77.91%
IV 19526 37.48 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3751
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24180
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22526
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 12761
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11660
Lose: Adversary condition 10201
Win: Sacrifice victory 311
Lose: Scenario condition 1442
Win: Scenario condition 1438
Lose: Blight pool ran out 22520
Lose: Spirit destroyed 559

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.13 Win Model: -0.19

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.013 Win Model: 0.18
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 81372 38.23% 22.14 62.9%
2 35787 39.65% 25.26 71.06%
3 13352 36.16% 29.82 75.84%
4 13403 29.37% 33.9 80.5%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.07 Win Model: -0.8
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 125365 26.14 69.13%
Power Progression 18549 15.14 58.58%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)