Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1945 38.96% 22.82 -0.03 63.44% -0.451 0.1302
Dahan Insurrection 4 1712 29.37% 45.2 -0.03 64.49% -0.536 -0.1329
Despicable Theft 2 9 55.56% 28.0 -0.103 44.44% -0.625 -0.275
Elemental Invocation 1 52 58.82% 30.1 -0.009 61.54% 0.041 0.4134
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6860 14.97% 39.76 -0.005 67.7% -0.198 0.1662
Powers Long Forgotten 1 826 48.05% 35.41 -0.043 61.86% -0.423 0.0181
Rituals of Terror 3 744 40.49% 36.89 -0.03 62.1% -0.405 0.2291
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 577 63.35% 32.26 -0.037 56.67% -0.301 0.3402
Second Wave 0 6911 37.86% 26.8 -0.0 71.81% -0.381 0.0426
The Great River 3 46 51.11% 22.91 -0.209 26.09% -2.2 -0.7785
Ward the Shores 2 790 43.18% 31.97 -0.07 53.54% -0.854 0.187

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 84383 37.48% 21.71 -0.02 63.43% -0.806 -0.4787
1 Thematic 3977 49.29% 29.28 -0.055 51.37% -1.101 -0.627
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 26377 41.25% 24.51 0.009 70.29% -0.285 -0.0883
2 Coastline 2980 32.79% 23.87 0.025 75.91% -0.23 -0.0796
2 Fragment 857 38.8% 22.21 0.008 72.11% -0.431 -0.027
2 Heart 1097 14.44% 23.69 0.059 87.78% -0.092 0.2199
2 Opposite Shores 4416 37.56% 25.96 0.012 72.01% -0.282 -0.0588
2 Thematic 2196 45.35% 34.56 -0.011 63.11% -0.514 -0.485
2 Top to Top 672 46.87% 24.12 0.014 71.13% -0.173 -0.0327
3 Coastline 40 47.06% 29.35 -0.01 67.5% -0.161 -0.2085
3 Other 476 38.57% 23.76 -0.011 71.85% -0.563 -0.1249
3 Round (Default) 13126 35.79% 29.61 0.026 76.74% 0.114 0.1723
3 Sunrise 44 45.45% 29.23 0.044 81.82% 0.255 0.0576
3 Thematic 578 43.65% 35.34 -0.028 63.15% -0.648 -1.0092
4 Coastline 26 16.67% 27.38 0.028 84.62% 0.106 0.2766
4 Leaf 59 30.36% 29.97 0.04 83.05% 0.48 0.5438
4 Other 347 33.33% 30.13 0.026 82.13% 0.148 0.279
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 0.063 100.0% 0.516 -0.2645
4 Snake 6 83.33% 34.5 -0.008 66.67% 0.068 0.223
4 Thematic 2608 29.17% 47.21 0.026 77.3% 0.157 -0.9025
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11288 29.53% 30.74 0.023 81.04% 0.218 0.2562
5 Other 107 40.19% 39.0 0.094 93.46% 1.481 1.2821
5 Thematic 47 14.89% 70.6 0.159 100.0% 2.275 -0.6817

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3377 25.06 -0.141 40.12% -1.805 0.2659
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3063 27.17 -0.108 47.86% -1.508 0.4138
All Things Weaken 917 23.94 -0.156 37.3% -1.986 0.1679
Back Against the Wall 3043 27.01 -0.124 44.04% -1.633 0.4633
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3190 22.4 -0.157 36.77% -1.947 0.2787
Downward Spiral 11913 19.9 -0.141 44.48% -1.828 0.1905
Erosion of Will 3306 23.86 -0.148 38.93% -1.892 0.3184
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 336 27.46 -0.086 51.79% -1.258 -0.5648
Memory Fades to Dust 11878 19.58 -0.157 41.54% -1.977 0.2386
Power Corrodes the Spirit 948 23.94 -0.143 39.45% -1.819 0.1981
Promising Farmlands 3351 23.57 -0.149 38.7% -1.876 0.3374
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 237 28.39 -0.02 67.51% -0.693 -0.2628
Thriving Communities 876 23.81 -0.138 40.3% -1.768 0.3279
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 -0.138 41.01% -1.763 0.4585
Unnatural Proliferation 974 26.39 -0.128 42.81% -1.701 0.3858
Untended Land Crumbles 941 22.94 -0.161 35.49% -2.004 0.0923

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 27756 40.48% 22.05 -0.017 64.22% 0.249 -0.8523
B 30521 36.18% 23.68 0.006 69.22% 0.441 -0.7553
C 33011 34.06% 23.83 0.01 69.8% 0.456 -0.9721
D 29982 35.68% 23.75 0.006 69.1% 0.439 -0.7524
E 4253 41.59% 27.3 0.01 67.04% 0.629 -0.6696
F 7478 38.09% 27.2 0.013 69.5% 0.598 -0.6566
G 6104 40.57% 25.74 -0.006 66.4% 0.346 -0.896
H 6528 39.71% 26.67 0.005 68.2% 0.512 -0.745
East 1984 43.36% 34.79 -0.019 61.69% 0.412 -0.5476
Northeast 2472 40.01% 35.77 -0.015 64.32% 0.375 -0.526
Northwest 1984 45.14% 33.9 -0.035 59.38% 0.214 -0.7605
Southeast 230 43.23% 33.4 0.005 66.09% 0.721 -0.2837
Southwest 222 51.36% 26.86 -0.058 52.7% 0.02 -0.5801
West 2114 39.58% 43.8 -0.006 64.57% 0.583 -0.1168

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 21333 0.0% 16.19 -0.053 62.81% -1.106 0.9429
Not Using Events or Tokens 65470 31.64% 20.28 0.011 69.81% -0.083 0.1372
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6608 9.01% 31.65 0.066 89.3% 0.861 0.1561
Start of Game Growth 8197 11.69% 30.98 0.057 86.79% 0.522 0.0704
Unlimited Undo 15841 25.0% 26.65 0.038 79.7% 0.321 -0.0959
Using Tokens but Not Events 15973 26.11% 25.69 0.034 76.07% 0.106 0.0546

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 14039 22.61% 32.2 0.036 80.8% 0.084 0.22
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3974 49.55% 27.86 -0.003 70.03% -0.231 0.0001
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2322 34.23% 28.95 0.028 78.29% 0.045 -0.0419
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2423 30.73% 31.46 0.038 80.07% 0.259 -0.1116
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2172 32.31% 30.08 0.037 80.11% 0.216 -0.0398
Fractured Days Split the Sky 406 40.25% 34.85 0.013 71.18% -0.04 0.3214
Heart of the Wildfire 4690 52.22% 27.32 -0.007 68.19% -0.228 0.1212
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6525 33.35% 33.53 0.04 79.17% 0.304 0.0024
Lightning's Swift Strike 16063 35.4% 25.23 0.007 74.95% -0.265 -0.0037
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 503 41.97% 31.38 0.023 74.75% 0.125 -0.1652
Many Minds Move as One 534 40.38% 30.56 0.028 76.78% 0.121 -0.4063
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8149 33.19% 34.11 0.039 78.75% 0.357 0.1609
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2257 33.9% 29.12 0.021 76.43% -0.062 -0.0175
River Surges in Sunlight 14962 30.86% 27.96 0.009 75.9% -0.282 -0.1295
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6543 31.71% 38.19 0.026 75.78% 0.173 0.3175
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7782 44.77% 24.28 -0.001 72.14% -0.305 0.137
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4455 37.23% 32.23 0.019 74.73% 0.006 -0.0663
Shroud of Silent Mist 105 46.15% 29.13 0.031 76.19% 0.059 0.0363
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1341 42.76% 29.18 -0.005 69.28% -0.313 -0.3334
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1800 31.16% 31.54 0.031 79.06% 0.058 0.2675
Thunderspeaker 8244 34.58% 28.83 0.02 76.03% -0.058 -0.0038
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 880 58.81% 27.81 0.005 68.98% -0.068 -0.0548
Volcano Looming High 271 51.5% 27.86 0.023 73.8% 0.118 0.0891

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 87.89%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.26%
Guard the Healing Land 91.38%
Rituals of Destruction 81.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25811 22.33 23.43%
II 56032 30.75 66.71%
III 52668 34.25 77.92%
IV 21202 37.47 99.29%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4087
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27525
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 25058
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 14417
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12720
Lose: Adversary condition 10823
Win: Sacrifice victory 337
Lose: Scenario condition 1548
Win: Scenario condition 1527
Lose: Blight pool ran out 24514
Lose: Spirit destroyed 592

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.155 Win Model: -0.186

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.013 Win Model: 0.127
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 88393 38.09% 22.05 62.89%
2 38620 39.62% 25.13 71.09%
3 14280 36.28% 29.66 76.06%
4 14420 29.51% 33.88 80.52%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.072 Win Model: -0.808
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 135279 26.06 69.23%
Power Progression 20434 15.0 58.03%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)