Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 0.0% 24.86 100.0% 0.474 0.5807 0.0
Blitz 0 1735 37.58% 25.05 64.84% 0.221 0.5681 -0.37
Dahan Insurrection 4 1340 28.35% 46.04 65.22% -0.728 -0.3716 0.994
Despicable Theft 2 38 44.74% 29.13 47.37% -1.215 -1.0045 -0.662
Elemental Invocation 1 61 48.33% 25.49 52.46% -0.796 -0.2021 -0.357
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5380 14.94% 40.42 67.03% -0.549 -0.3253 0.65
Powers Long Forgotten 1 560 49.46% 34.84 59.11% 0.091 0.3797 -1.191
Rituals of Terror 3 556 43.04% 37.52 63.67% 0.224 0.2418 0.491
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 401 62.72% 32.77 56.36% 0.239 0.7699 -0.546
Second Wave 0 5468 35.22% 26.8 73.37% 0.134 0.6755 0.147
The Great River 3 46 44.19% 26.48 45.65% -0.721 0.774 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 5 40.0% 25.0 60.0% 0.041 0.5459 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 567 41.34% 31.77 54.67% -0.231 0.953 -0.849

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 103066 36.61% 21.46 64.05% 0.559 1.1107 -0.47
1 Thematic 4538 48.84% 29.07 52.16% 0.822 1.502 -0.767
2 Archipelago 18 27.78% 25.06 72.22% 0.149 0.8773 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 31381 40.99% 24.0 70.39% 0.252 0.6869 0.322
2 Coastline 3878 30.73% 23.84 77.15% 0.362 0.5028 0.474
2 Fragment 1032 40.02% 21.72 70.74% -0.451 -0.4312 0.386
2 Heart 1178 16.28% 23.55 86.25% 0.038 0.3717 -0.728
2 Opposite Shores 5229 36.95% 25.53 72.81% 0.669 1.2357 -0.133
2 Thematic 2441 44.73% 34.58 63.5% -0.257 0.1671 -0.885
2 Top to Top 806 46.05% 24.1 71.59% 0.06 0.3702 1.141
3 Archipelago 10 60.0% 33.8 50.0% 0.068 -0.4167 0.0
3 Coastline 61 32.0% 27.97 70.49% 0.031 -0.5791 0.652
3 Other 554 38.2% 23.17 73.65% 0.225 -0.637 -0.404
3 Round (Default) 15012 34.6% 29.16 77.5% 0.395 0.7106 0.321
3 Sunrise 56 44.0% 30.8 85.71% 0.425 0.4972 0.957
3 Thematic 643 44.44% 35.27 62.52% -0.298 -0.6301 -0.051
4 Archipelago 12 45.45% 35.33 83.33% 0.0 -0.8265 0.084
4 Coastline 36 18.75% 26.56 83.33% 0.061 -0.2228 0.0
4 Leaf 74 28.99% 29.03 83.78% 0.0 0.2328 0.574
4 Other 412 34.29% 29.65 82.04% -0.431 -0.7566 0.406
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 4 75.0% 37.75 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 2955 28.29% 46.99 77.87% -0.31 -0.1958 -0.374
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13320 28.75% 30.9 81.46% 0.656 0.5479 0.13
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4929 0.0
5 Coastline 6 0.0% 29.5 100.0% 0.05 -0.5262 0.21
5 Other 194 31.67% 36.77 91.24% 0.379 0.6908 0.59
5 Thematic 62 16.13% 65.94 95.16% 0.0 -0.1545 1.218
6 Archipelago 19 27.27% 34.53 100.0% 0.034 -0.509 0.082
6 Coastline 21 0.0% 27.95 100.0% 0.121 -0.3956 0.0
6 Other 121 6.19% 30.97 90.08% 0.444 1.0418 -0.658
6 Star 13 33.33% 34.0 84.62% 0.062 0.9973 -0.254
6 Thematic 130 22.31% 42.23 79.23% -0.775 -0.855 -1.224
6 Two Centers (Default) 366 13.2% 29.92 92.35% -0.764 -0.4329 -0.994
7 Archipelago 3 33.33% 41.0 66.67% 0.0 -0.8394 -0.418
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.008 -0.7983 -0.839

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3806 24.76 40.67% -1.741 0.1088 -0.169
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3452 26.66 47.54% -1.479 0.1657 0.211
All Things Weaken 1096 23.46 37.14% -1.788 0.1952 -0.345
Back Against the Wall 3363 26.49 43.95% -1.16 0.6887 -0.0
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3539 22.07 37.13% -1.988 -0.0264 -0.386
Downward Spiral 14590 19.49 44.58% -2.296 -0.3806 -0.228
Erosion of Will 3668 23.32 38.28% -2.048 0.0158 -0.05
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 404 27.1 55.94% -0.1 0.4187 0.514
Memory Fades to Dust 14682 19.32 41.64% -2.055 -0.0557 -0.568
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1073 23.18 38.86% -1.663 0.23 -0.336
Promising Farmlands 3683 23.03 38.66% -2.465 -0.4702 -0.304
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 277 28.29 73.65% 0.285 0.727 0.36
Thriving Communities 1013 23.13 39.49% -1.525 0.4237 0.042
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 0.5049 -0.413
Unnatural Proliferation 1146 25.66 43.98% -1.399 0.5014 0.023
Untended Land Crumbles 1059 21.89 35.79% -1.952 0.0425 -0.833

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 59337 36.61% 24.22 70.28% 0.185 0.9374 -0.475
B 62123 34.68% 25.16 72.46% 0.139 0.8225 -0.215
C 63699 33.58% 25.05 72.52% 0.105 0.6482 -0.128
D 60179 34.55% 24.89 72.0% 0.194 0.9365 -0.472
E 8715 37.49% 27.4 72.77% 0.165 0.7634 0.036
F 15726 36.69% 27.81 73.03% 0.342 1.0266 0.362
G 13695 36.93% 27.21 72.75% -0.22 0.4923 -0.362
H 14055 35.79% 27.67 73.08% 0.169 0.8206 -0.011
East 8087 37.75% 38.98 66.98% -0.03 0.6757 0.238
Northeast 5930 35.27% 41.16 70.4% -0.051 0.6242 -0.01
Northwest 5224 35.85% 41.41 69.49% -0.278 0.8048 -0.23
Southeast 681 34.76% 35.67 69.02% 0.163 0.8825 -0.546
Southwest 617 37.72% 34.27 67.59% -0.639 0.3632 -1.01
West 7334 40.0% 38.53 65.56% -0.248 0.7837 0.838

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 26979 0.0% 16.08 62.27% -1.971 0.0686 -0.399
Not Using Events or Tokens 85131 31.23% 20.35 69.87% 0.119 0.3291 0.045
Skip Initial Invader Actions 7942 8.69% 31.74 89.8% 0.589 0.496 -1.578
Start of Game Growth 10022 11.52% 31.03 87.57% 0.643 -0.0772 -0.001
Unlimited Undo 19503 24.69% 26.46 80.36% 0.422 -0.2628 0.832
Using Tokens but Not Events 19119 25.23% 26.01 77.33% 0.819 0.7206 0.204

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 16989 100.0% 32.26 100.0% 0.217 0.1047 0.176
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4568 100.0% 27.66 100.0% 0.068 0.1094 -0.123
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2918 100.0% 28.25 100.0% 0.336 0.2111 0.045
Downpour Drenches the World 39 100.0% 31.03 100.0% 0.41 0.7221 0.617
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2949 100.0% 30.82 100.0% 0.498 0.0783 -0.342
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2691 100.0% 29.76 100.0% 0.836 0.2815 -0.165
Finder of Paths Unseen 25 100.0% 28.64 100.0% -0.886 -0.5037 0.154
Fractured Days Split the Sky 388 100.0% 34.87 100.0% 0.007 0.0336 -0.231
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 214 100.0% 29.71 100.0% -0.218 -0.2548 -0.191
Heart of the Wildfire 5192 100.0% 27.22 100.0% -0.196 0.0228 -0.23
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7306 100.0% 33.31 100.0% -0.577 -1.0763 0.079
Lightning's Swift Strike 18957 102.0% 25.02 100.59% 0.068 0.308 -0.207
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 29 70.0% 36.07 65.52% 0.044 -0.7904 0.162
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 196 33.68% 31.7 77.55% -0.183 -0.7985 1.069
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 381 33.6% 32.79 85.04% 0.29 -0.0083 0.594
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 689 100.0% 30.4 100.0% 0.224 0.0003 -0.765
Many Minds Move as One 613 100.0% 29.73 100.0% -0.711 -1.2864 0.084
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9929 100.0% 34.04 100.0% -0.041 -0.3033 0.851
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2805 100.0% 28.52 100.0% -0.046 -0.0801 -0.016
River Surges in Sunlight 18096 101.88% 27.78 100.54% -0.248 -0.1998 -0.07
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 478 28.67% 33.72 80.96% 0.52 0.8134 -0.283
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 28 37.5% 22.5 78.57% -0.289 -0.5464 -0.651
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7376 100.0% 38.25 100.0% 0.21 0.2099 0.312
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8832 102.47% 23.66 100.76% 0.393 0.7998 -0.311
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 10 55.56% 18.1 70.0% -0.225 -0.1552 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 4 33.33% 37.0 75.0% -0.017 -0.2314 0.479
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 163 41.77% 27.24 80.98% 0.186 0.1639 -0.773
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 198 35.64% 27.63 83.84% 0.117 0.289 0.588
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4877 100.0% 32.04 100.0% -0.327 -0.6151 0.34
Shifting Memory of Ages 381 100.0% 33.75 100.0% 0.209 0.2549 -0.257
Shroud of Silent Mist 321 100.0% 26.64 100.0% 0.047 0.3113 0.02
Starlight Seeks its Form 292 100.0% 29.69 100.0% 0.071 -0.1035 0.17
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1512 100.0% 28.33 100.0% 0.005 -0.1553 -0.754
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2236 100.0% 30.5 100.0% -0.288 -0.1842 0.983
Thunderspeaker 9922 100.0% 28.44 100.0% -0.023 -0.0193 -0.371
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1004 100.0% 27.23 100.0% 0.228 0.1487 -0.389
Volcano Looming High 538 100.0% 27.31 100.0% -0.129 -0.0876 -0.225

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.56%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.52%
Guard the Healing Land 92.02%
Rituals of Destruction 81.7%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 30967 22.6 24.65%
II 68512 31.02 67.76%
III 63650 34.58 78.1%
IV 24554 37.82 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7632
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 48846
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 45239
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24182
Lose: Invader deck ran out 15397
Lose: Adversary condition 12192
Win: Sacrifice victory 437
Lose: Scenario condition 1808
Win: Scenario condition 1810
Lose: Blight pool ran out 29430
Lose: Spirit destroyed 710

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.047 Win Model: -0.209

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.367 Win Model: 0.585
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 107660 37.21% 21.78 63.54%
2 46000 39.25% 24.67 71.31%
3 16348 35.14% 29.23 76.82%
4 16912 28.7% 33.85 80.98%
5 101 23.26% 33.14 86.14%
6 662 13.98% 32.09 90.03%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-13 02:58:21 (Pacific Time)