Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1871 38.68% 22.8 -0.03 63.55% -0.453 0.1234
Dahan Insurrection 4 1652 29.53% 45.23 -0.03 64.41% -0.535 -0.1348
Despicable Theft 2 2 50.0% 20.0 -0.112 50.0% -0.379 0.0501
Elemental Invocation 1 36 57.14% 29.14 -0.008 61.11% 0.007 0.3877
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6617 14.99% 39.67 -0.004 67.7% -0.187 0.1788
Powers Long Forgotten 1 804 47.63% 35.59 -0.042 62.19% -0.418 0.0239
Rituals of Terror 3 729 40.5% 36.95 -0.029 62.14% -0.406 0.2224
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 565 63.1% 32.31 -0.036 56.81% -0.303 0.347
Second Wave 0 6657 38.01% 26.81 0.001 71.89% -0.374 0.0421
The Great River 3 36 42.86% 24.08 -0.203 30.56% -2.169 -0.6974
Ward the Shores 2 770 42.88% 31.92 -0.07 53.51% -0.857 0.1792

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 80886 37.57% 21.72 -0.02 63.38% -0.704 -0.3449
1 Thematic 3781 49.5% 29.27 -0.055 51.36% -0.964 -0.4605
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25378 41.18% 24.61 0.009 70.34% -0.238 -0.0427
2 Coastline 2839 33.48% 23.9 0.025 75.87% -0.174 -0.0311
2 Fragment 815 38.73% 22.26 0.007 71.9% -0.395 0.0274
2 Heart 1081 13.68% 23.79 0.061 88.34% -0.008 0.2846
2 Opposite Shores 4244 37.45% 26.04 0.012 71.91% -0.248 -0.023
2 Thematic 2132 45.76% 34.46 -0.012 62.71% -0.451 -0.406
2 Top to Top 639 46.61% 23.91 0.01 70.42% -0.181 -0.0467
3 Coastline 39 48.48% 29.33 -0.013 66.67% -0.188 -0.2213
3 Other 457 38.73% 23.74 -0.014 71.12% -0.605 -0.1899
3 Round (Default) 12692 35.66% 29.65 0.026 76.6% 0.087 0.1262
3 Sunrise 42 45.24% 29.74 0.052 83.33% 0.362 0.1385
3 Thematic 563 43.85% 35.42 -0.028 62.88% -0.635 -0.9921
4 Coastline 24 13.64% 28.08 0.022 83.33% -0.009 0.1496
4 Leaf 59 30.36% 29.97 0.04 83.05% 0.412 0.4398
4 Other 322 32.06% 30.9 0.03 82.92% 0.154 0.2675
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 0.063 100.0% 0.501 -0.2874
4 Snake 6 83.33% 34.5 -0.006 66.67% 0.046 0.1705
4 Thematic 2521 29.49% 46.95 0.024 76.91% 0.082 -1.0041
4 Trapezoid (Default) 10858 29.36% 30.88 0.024 81.22% 0.158 0.1415
5 Other 97 37.11% 39.41 0.093 93.81% 1.391 1.1727
5 Thematic 37 18.92% 71.32 0.164 100.0% 2.118 -0.71

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3255 25.11 -0.141 40.03% -1.806 0.2646
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2966 27.23 -0.108 47.74% -1.513 0.4056
All Things Weaken 862 23.96 -0.157 37.01% -1.985 0.17
Back Against the Wall 2947 27.09 -0.124 43.98% -1.632 0.464
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3086 22.42 -0.157 36.81% -1.947 0.2764
Downward Spiral 11469 19.97 -0.141 44.32% -1.827 0.1894
Erosion of Will 3204 23.95 -0.148 39.01% -1.89 0.3196
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 311 27.43 -0.087 51.45% -1.271 -0.5667
Memory Fades to Dust 11401 19.68 -0.157 41.45% -1.975 0.2404
Power Corrodes the Spirit 878 24.02 -0.144 39.18% -1.824 0.1962
Promising Farmlands 3253 23.58 -0.149 38.67% -1.875 0.3373
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 213 28.69 -0.028 65.26% -0.76 -0.3241
Thriving Communities 805 23.69 -0.138 40.0% -1.762 0.3357
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 -0.138 41.01% -1.766 0.452
Unnatural Proliferation 898 26.59 -0.126 43.1% -1.673 0.4048
Untended Land Crumbles 873 22.93 -0.162 35.05% -2.005 0.0936

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 26742 40.53% 22.13 -0.016 64.31% 0.268 -0.822
B 29359 36.06% 23.78 0.007 69.35% 0.458 -0.7269
C 31865 34.05% 23.9 0.01 69.81% 0.467 -0.9475
D 28853 35.67% 23.81 0.006 69.1% 0.449 -0.7282
E 3940 42.21% 27.28 0.009 66.55% 0.635 -0.6424
F 7080 38.11% 27.22 0.012 69.34% 0.608 -0.6351
G 5750 40.62% 25.8 -0.007 66.19% 0.349 -0.8813
H 6183 39.89% 26.72 0.004 67.8% 0.51 -0.7302
East 1927 43.77% 34.79 -0.019 61.34% 0.395 -0.5562
Northeast 2361 39.62% 35.79 -0.015 64.55% 0.352 -0.5376
Northwest 1931 45.46% 33.92 -0.035 59.19% 0.207 -0.7575
Southeast 221 44.55% 33.41 0.005 65.61% 0.72 -0.2819
Southwest 209 52.17% 26.92 -0.059 52.15% 0.017 -0.5909
West 2023 40.36% 43.23 -0.007 64.01% 0.559 -0.1265

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 20365 0.0% 16.24 -0.051 63.07% -1.092 0.9518
Not Using Events or Tokens 62585 31.58% 20.33 0.012 69.91% -0.09 0.1288
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6329 8.93% 31.81 0.066 89.46% 0.859 0.1546
Start of Game Growth 7822 11.66% 31.14 0.058 86.99% 0.536 0.0818
Unlimited Undo 15173 25.05% 26.77 0.038 79.69% 0.32 -0.0922
Using Tokens but Not Events 15317 26.23% 25.57 0.033 75.85% 0.091 0.0438

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 13577 22.51% 32.16 0.036 80.84% 0.088 0.2347
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 3880 49.63% 27.96 -0.003 69.97% -0.225 0.0115
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2210 34.45% 29.06 0.028 78.1% 0.051 -0.0349
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2285 30.87% 31.65 0.037 79.78% 0.249 -0.1165
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2076 32.2% 30.19 0.036 79.87% 0.205 -0.0397
Fractured Days Split the Sky 369 39.67% 34.72 0.015 71.54% -0.011 0.3342
Heart of the Wildfire 4600 52.19% 27.38 -0.007 68.13% -0.227 0.1235
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6351 33.4% 33.6 0.041 79.26% 0.322 0.0219
Lightning's Swift Strike 15435 35.2% 25.3 0.007 75.07% -0.259 0.0099
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 419 41.06% 31.68 0.03 76.13% 0.246 -0.0734
Many Minds Move as One 504 40.4% 30.79 0.029 76.79% 0.148 -0.3726
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7918 33.17% 34.02 0.04 78.72% 0.365 0.1709
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2166 33.85% 29.2 0.02 75.99% -0.077 -0.0281
River Surges in Sunlight 14350 30.66% 28.13 0.009 75.85% -0.284 -0.1221
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6352 31.81% 37.97 0.026 75.71% 0.179 0.3282
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7458 44.9% 24.43 -0.002 72.06% -0.3 0.1498
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4350 37.25% 32.36 0.019 74.62% 0.01 -0.0578
Shroud of Silent Mist 12 41.67% 28.58 0.029 75.0% -0.113 -0.1575
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1250 42.41% 29.34 -0.003 69.52% -0.272 -0.2907
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1732 31.4% 31.63 0.03 78.87% 0.06 0.2759
Thunderspeaker 8025 34.63% 28.89 0.02 76.07% -0.045 0.0129
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 836 59.04% 27.79 0.004 68.78% -0.07 -0.05
Volcano Looming High 196 47.15% 28.84 0.018 72.96% 0.09 0.0282

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 87.93%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.37%
Guard the Healing Land 91.4%
Rituals of Destruction 81.09%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 24885 22.34 23.51%
II 53932 30.75 66.78%
III 50394 34.26 77.9%
IV 20307 37.47 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 3891
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25777
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23728
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 13532
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12164
Lose: Adversary condition 10508
Win: Sacrifice victory 319
Lose: Scenario condition 1480
Win: Scenario condition 1476
Lose: Blight pool ran out 23510
Lose: Spirit destroyed 568

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.14 Win Model: -0.189

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.013 Win Model: 0.181
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 84699 38.18% 22.06 62.85%
2 37148 39.61% 25.21 71.08%
3 13810 36.17% 29.71 75.89%
4 13861 29.41% 33.95 80.59%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.071 Win Model: -0.807
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 130090 26.09 69.17%
Power Progression 19428 15.03 58.18%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)