Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 10 10.0% 22.5 90.0% -0.558 -0.1775 0.0
Blitz 0 1834 37.01% 25.8 65.98% 0.405 0.7519 -0.015
Dahan Insurrection 4 1352 28.2% 46.01 65.16% -0.979 -0.7296 0.998
Despicable Theft 2 39 43.59% 29.36 48.72% 0.134 0.7132 -0.664
Elemental Invocation 1 62 47.54% 25.47 51.61% -0.555 0.1013 -0.353
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5515 15.13% 40.39 67.05% 0.336 0.5725 0.668
Powers Long Forgotten 1 568 49.47% 34.84 59.33% 0.298 0.7014 -1.192
Rituals of Terror 3 573 42.63% 37.79 64.4% 0.653 0.3351 0.513
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 409 62.72% 32.9 56.97% 0.564 0.6186 -0.437
Second Wave 0 5603 35.03% 26.75 73.32% -0.35 0.2879 0.095
The Great River 3 46 44.19% 26.48 45.65% 0.0 1.6198 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 6 33.33% 23.17 50.0% -0.632 0.1629 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 576 41.53% 31.77 55.21% 0.413 1.3778 -0.853

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 105599 36.72% 21.44 63.9% 0.427 1.095 -0.43
1 Thematic 4588 48.8% 29.08 52.29% -0.012 0.9475 -0.727
2 Archipelago 18 27.78% 25.06 72.22% 0.0 -0.0824 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 32063 40.96% 23.97 70.27% 0.183 0.715 0.34
2 Coastline 3971 30.45% 23.83 77.31% 0.503 0.7948 0.49
2 Fragment 1060 40.44% 21.67 70.47% 0.221 0.5736 0.439
2 Heart 1186 16.3% 23.5 86.0% -0.395 0.0697 -0.68
2 Opposite Shores 5338 36.84% 25.52 72.89% 0.736 1.2999 -0.11
2 Thematic 2488 45.22% 34.58 63.26% 0.251 1.067 -0.82
2 Top to Top 825 45.86% 24.12 71.88% 0.61 0.8343 1.162
3 Archipelago 13 61.54% 31.0 53.85% -0.151 -0.4275 0.0
3 Coastline 62 31.37% 27.94 70.97% 0.157 -0.2376 0.655
3 Other 570 38.37% 23.12 73.68% 0.301 -0.356 -0.381
3 Round (Default) 15291 34.59% 29.13 77.56% 0.445 0.8138 0.307
3 Sunrise 59 43.14% 30.07 83.05% -0.688 -0.6191 0.953
3 Thematic 650 44.27% 35.44 62.92% 0.913 0.7949 -0.011
4 Archipelago 17 43.75% 31.53 82.35% 0.072 0.4487 0.029
4 Coastline 39 20.59% 26.54 82.05% 0.014 0.1259 -0.0
4 Leaf 76 28.57% 28.88 84.21% 0.316 0.2627 0.553
4 Other 419 34.27% 29.61 82.1% 0.517 -0.1344 0.298
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 4 75.0% 37.75 50.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 2979 28.4% 46.91 77.98% 0.883 0.8111 -0.44
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13661 28.52% 30.94 81.63% 0.254 0.3223 0.073
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.2824 0.0
5 Coastline 8 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.037 -0.0399 0.206
5 Other 207 32.63% 36.44 90.82% -0.151 -0.4649 0.473
5 Thematic 62 16.13% 65.94 95.16% 0.0 -0.2154 1.185
6 Archipelago 26 27.27% 34.19 100.0% 0.01 -0.4038 0.067
6 Coastline 31 0.0% 27.81 100.0% 0.011 -0.6777 0.0
6 Other 143 6.92% 32.83 90.21% -0.706 -0.4297 -0.657
6 Star 14 30.77% 33.14 85.71% 0.008 0.8545 -0.288
6 Thematic 138 24.64% 41.27 78.26% -1.101 -0.549 -1.281
6 Two Centers (Default) 429 13.13% 29.77 92.54% -0.486 -0.602 -1.167
7 Archipelago 5 60.0% 33.0 60.0% -0.774 -0.5655 -0.43
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.003 -0.8688 -0.712

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3861 24.73 40.66% -1.728 0.2401 -0.169
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3505 26.7 47.59% -1.459 0.2847 0.196
All Things Weaken 1129 23.42 37.11% -1.739 0.2554 -0.34
Back Against the Wall 3419 26.43 43.99% -1.775 0.1787 0.011
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3592 22.01 37.14% -2.001 0.1513 -0.399
Downward Spiral 15006 19.51 44.28% -1.886 0.0981 -0.251
Erosion of Will 3742 23.32 38.54% -1.542 0.542 -0.068
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 416 27.05 56.49% -0.279 0.2456 0.504
Memory Fades to Dust 15104 19.32 41.35% -2.132 0.005 -0.577
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1108 23.08 39.08% -1.618 0.3491 -0.36
Promising Farmlands 3749 22.97 38.57% -1.996 0.0859 -0.342
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 285 28.32 74.04% 0.385 0.8415 0.433
Thriving Communities 1046 23.09 39.01% -2.312 -0.2601 0.039
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 0.0 -0.412
Unnatural Proliferation 1176 25.62 43.96% -1.5 0.4454 -0.007
Untended Land Crumbles 1107 21.92 35.77% -1.891 0.1518 -0.793

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 60823 36.55% 24.22 70.26% -0.265 0.436 -0.507
B 63505 34.62% 25.16 72.47% -0.095 0.5603 -0.201
C 65236 33.52% 25.04 72.54% -0.033 0.4079 -0.102
D 61566 34.51% 24.9 71.96% -0.139 0.5433 -0.482
E 9082 37.21% 27.34 72.97% -0.102 0.4004 0.036
F 16213 36.61% 27.79 73.08% 0.023 0.6813 0.369
G 14078 36.92% 27.17 72.73% -0.058 0.5842 -0.349
H 14480 35.92% 27.63 73.11% 0.321 0.9641 -0.011
East 8196 37.95% 38.93 67.01% 0.063 0.7305 0.232
Northeast 6008 35.4% 41.09 70.57% 0.532 1.1196 -0.003
Northwest 5285 36.01% 41.3 69.52% 0.035 0.6652 -0.239
Southeast 692 35.07% 35.58 69.08% 0.009 0.562 -0.55
Southwest 627 38.08% 34.15 67.62% 0.0 0.9112 -1.024
West 7430 40.24% 38.46 65.52% 0.295 1.1311 0.825

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 27691 0.0% 16.05 62.09% -1.94 0.2994 -0.367
Not Using Events or Tokens 87647 31.4% 20.36 69.65% 0.091 0.2898 0.027
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8128 8.74% 31.73 89.89% 1.658 0.8441 -1.067
Start of Game Growth 10240 11.49% 31.09 87.64% 0.496 -0.005 0.041
Unlimited Undo 19956 24.67% 26.46 80.39% 0.298 -0.3165 0.873
Using Tokens but Not Events 19582 25.2% 26.0 77.32% 0.095 0.2245 0.209

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 17440 100.0% 32.28 100.0% 0.689 0.6468 0.143
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4649 100.0% 27.64 100.0% -0.571 -0.4824 -0.216
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3004 100.0% 28.22 100.0% 1.283 1.0384 0.014
Downpour Drenches the World 61 100.0% 29.72 100.0% 0.622 0.9058 0.605
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3029 100.0% 30.79 100.0% -0.471 -0.9642 -0.363
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2768 100.0% 29.82 100.0% 0.374 -0.231 -0.161
Finder of Paths Unseen 38 100.0% 31.61 100.0% 0.672 1.0326 1.268
Fractured Days Split the Sky 407 100.0% 34.45 100.0% -0.934 -0.8174 -0.375
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 239 100.0% 29.78 100.0% 0.931 0.7936 -0.168
Heart of the Wildfire 5241 100.0% 27.22 100.0% -0.298 0.066 -0.254
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7410 100.0% 33.26 100.0% 0.683 0.092 0.048
Lightning's Swift Strike 19508 102.05% 25.01 100.72% 0.19 0.5654 -0.238
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 36 74.07% 33.58 55.56% -0.651 -1.4453 -0.295
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 228 38.22% 31.41 72.37% -0.463 -1.0291 1.082
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 398 33.77% 32.6 84.67% 0.206 -0.3489 0.607
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 726 100.0% 30.41 100.0% 0.18 0.0003 -0.638
Many Minds Move as One 639 100.0% 29.68 100.0% -0.386 -0.9197 0.2
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10148 100.0% 34.09 100.0% 0.828 0.6407 0.85
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2903 100.0% 28.5 100.0% 0.349 0.3792 -0.05
River Surges in Sunlight 18653 101.9% 27.83 100.57% 0.203 0.1007 -0.055
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 499 29.71% 33.37 80.76% 0.374 0.8547 -0.399
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 38 40.63% 23.89 73.68% -0.251 -0.5135 -0.287
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7453 100.0% 38.25 100.0% 0.462 0.2395 0.3
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9014 102.52% 23.59 100.89% -0.412 0.0643 -0.342
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 16 61.54% 19.81 68.75% 0.202 0.3817 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 5 33.33% 30.6 60.0% -0.688 -0.5923 0.462
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 178 44.51% 27.04 78.65% 0.0 -0.0585 -1.119
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 207 36.55% 27.51 83.09% -0.199 -0.0884 0.576
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4948 100.0% 32.01 100.0% 0.082 -0.1351 0.319
Shifting Memory of Ages 398 100.0% 33.44 100.0% -1.151 -0.983 -0.307
Shroud of Silent Mist 343 100.0% 26.2 100.0% -0.883 -0.6342 0.004
Starlight Seeks its Form 329 100.0% 29.55 100.0% 0.332 0.2083 0.072
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1551 100.0% 28.3 100.0% 0.046 -0.1811 -0.76
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2318 100.0% 30.47 100.0% -0.158 -0.073 0.945
Thunderspeaker 10107 100.0% 28.39 100.0% 0.033 0.0218 -0.416
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1021 100.0% 27.24 100.0% -0.225 -0.4001 -0.346
Volcano Looming High 560 100.0% 27.22 100.0% -0.616 -0.6128 -0.282

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.55%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.52%
Guard the Healing Land 92.04%
Rituals of Destruction 81.66%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 31724 22.64 24.73%
II 70143 31.06 67.63%
III 65168 34.65 78.05%
IV 25050 37.9 99.3%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7844
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 49987
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 46238
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 24677
Lose: Invader deck ran out 15857
Lose: Adversary condition 12403
Win: Sacrifice victory 446
Lose: Scenario condition 1831
Win: Scenario condition 1825
Lose: Blight pool ran out 30256
Lose: Spirit destroyed 721

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.989 Win Model: -0.193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.396 Win Model: 0.391
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 110260 37.3% 21.76 63.41%
2 46987 39.23% 24.64 71.23%
3 16656 35.12% 29.21 76.9%
4 17291 28.55% 33.82 81.15%
5 117 25.51% 33.09 86.32%
6 774 14.64% 31.95 90.18%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-13 03:07:46 (Pacific Time)