Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 7.69% 21.69 84.62% 0.202 0.0184 0.0
Blitz 0 1951 35.9% 26.27 66.74% 0.418 0.7088 0.211
Dahan Insurrection 4 1400 28.2% 45.55 64.71% -0.346 -0.5242 0.988
Despicable Theft 2 44 47.73% 28.89 45.45% -0.388 0.2677 -0.665
Elemental Invocation 1 64 47.62% 24.89 50.0% -0.478 0.3481 -0.353
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5681 15.39% 40.13 66.59% 0.266 -0.2335 0.69
Powers Long Forgotten 1 584 49.48% 34.39 58.73% -0.224 0.1854 -1.188
Rituals of Terror 3 584 42.68% 37.61 64.04% -0.128 -0.2444 0.422
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 415 62.29% 32.67 56.87% 0.226 1.0011 -0.413
Second Wave 0 5765 34.91% 26.74 73.32% 0.572 0.6877 0.099
The Great River 3 48 42.22% 26.17 45.83% -0.805 0.6338 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 8 37.5% 20.5 37.5% -0.639 -0.1465 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 592 41.49% 31.59 55.24% -0.354 0.5593 -0.827

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 109290 36.58% 21.25 63.38% 0.151 0.3891 -0.363
1 Thematic 4662 48.68% 29.03 52.21% -0.14 0.4522 -0.695
2 Archipelago 19 31.58% 24.16 68.42% 0.0 0.8246 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 33172 40.83% 23.73 69.66% 0.236 0.4222 0.391
2 Coastline 4115 30.48% 23.61 76.82% 0.42 0.5611 0.573
2 Fragment 1098 40.83% 21.44 69.76% 0.413 0.3402 0.597
2 Heart 1208 16.86% 23.34 85.26% 0.256 0.0773 -0.736
2 Opposite Shores 5473 36.7% 25.4 72.74% 0.483 0.6114 -0.033
2 Thematic 2586 45.82% 34.11 61.29% -1.23 -0.6534 -0.81
2 Top to Top 858 45.41% 23.63 70.4% -0.695 -0.4843 1.217
3 Archipelago 14 57.14% 30.36 57.14% -0.091 -0.6225 0.0
3 Coastline 64 32.69% 27.88 71.88% 0.639 0.1978 0.631
3 Other 588 38.14% 22.88 73.47% 0.179 -0.4489 -0.353
3 Round (Default) 15718 34.69% 28.92 77.34% 0.853 0.8145 0.328
3 Sunrise 59 43.14% 30.07 83.05% 0.0 -0.4777 0.953
3 Thematic 655 44.24% 35.26 62.6% -1.626 -1.9184 -0.064
4 Archipelago 17 43.75% 31.53 82.35% 0.0 0.0698 0.024
4 Coastline 39 20.59% 26.54 82.05% 0.283 0.276 -0.003
4 Leaf 77 28.17% 28.82 84.42% 0.403 0.3155 0.56
4 Other 439 34.07% 28.94 80.41% -0.494 -1.1768 0.339
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.0 -0.2088 0.0
4 Snake 4 75.0% 37.75 50.0% 0.0 0.4394 0.0
4 Thematic 3022 28.39% 46.67 77.96% 0.491 0.3518 -0.541
4 Trapezoid (Default) 14117 28.17% 30.82 81.33% 0.625 0.4121 0.081
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 30.0 100.0% 0.0 -1.1929 0.0
5 Coastline 12 0.0% 28.92 100.0% 0.52 0.3732 0.181
5 Other 225 31.73% 35.58 89.78% 0.439 -0.0894 0.544
5 Thematic 65 20.0% 64.38 95.38% 0.357 0.0166 1.118
6 Archipelago 33 21.43% 31.97 93.94% -0.52 -0.4089 0.067
6 Coastline 44 0.0% 27.61 97.73% 0.009 -0.5874 0.0
6 Other 172 6.0% 31.59 90.7% -0.017 -0.4407 -0.697
6 Star 22 28.57% 27.82 81.82% -0.545 0.0447 -0.295
6 Thematic 155 23.23% 38.63 75.48% -1.311 -1.078 -1.633
6 Two Centers (Default) 515 12.42% 28.31 87.18% -0.773 -0.3 -1.323
7 Archipelago 5 60.0% 33.0 60.0% 0.0 -1.0572 -0.336
7 Other 4 0.0% 35.0 75.0% 0.0 -0.7249 -0.651

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3937 24.67 40.72% -0.58 0.085 -0.122
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3586 26.56 47.38% -0.572 -0.108 0.191
All Things Weaken 1181 23.41 37.43% -0.638 0.1748 -0.322
Attenuated Essence 11 12.09 27.27% -1.09 -0.445 -0.164
Back Against the Wall 3479 26.36 44.04% -0.405 0.1421 0.046
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 6 17.17 16.67% -0.936 -0.0164 -0.316
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 24.0 55.56% 0.024 0.8167 0.475
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3661 21.93 37.07% -0.722 0.1345 -0.419
Downward Spiral 15459 19.4 44.01% -1.079 -0.4004 -0.239
Erosion of Will 3811 23.24 38.57% -0.696 0.111 -0.086
Intensifying Exploitation 10 12.0 10.0% -1.365 -0.4213 -0.351
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 427 27.13 56.21% -0.101 -0.3548 0.497
Memory Fades to Dust 15590 19.19 41.08% -1.176 -0.3493 -0.535
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1150 22.91 38.87% -0.898 -0.2591 -0.361
Promising Farmlands 3837 22.88 38.55% -0.3 0.5957 -0.303
Shattered Fragments of Power 11 11.09 36.36% -1.124 -0.4763 -0.145
Slow Dissolution of Will 4 24.25 25.0% -0.314 0.6682 -0.358
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 298 28.17 73.83% 0.409 -0.0834 0.39
The Border of Life and Death 5 9.8 20.0% -0.955 -0.7487 -0.2
Thriving Communities 1092 22.88 38.46% -1.517 -0.6354 0.052
Thriving Crops 4 18.25 25.0% -0.851 -0.2986 -0.471
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 41.01% 0.0 -0.0878 -0.397
Unnatural Proliferation 1220 25.58 43.52% -0.716 -0.0493 0.034
Untended Land Crumbles 1157 21.73 35.44% -1.034 -0.3021 -0.732

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 62984 36.34% 24.01 69.74% -0.66 0.2447 -0.491
B 65572 34.47% 24.98 71.98% -0.556 0.2429 -0.139
C 67337 33.3% 24.85 72.11% -0.46 0.1895 -0.048
D 63655 34.32% 24.7 71.52% -0.385 0.4656 -0.446
E 9663 36.78% 26.96 72.51% -0.247 0.4507 0.044
F 16904 36.39% 27.54 72.65% -0.154 0.6166 0.428
G 14670 36.76% 26.91 72.28% -0.275 0.4976 -0.289
H 15077 35.71% 27.39 72.69% -0.454 0.2665 0.017
East 8344 37.84% 38.69 66.8% 0.087 0.8684 0.328
Northeast 6115 35.25% 40.83 70.43% 0.241 1.1961 0.136
Northwest 5361 35.91% 41.1 69.46% -0.145 0.4649 -0.095
Southeast 726 34.81% 34.94 68.6% 0.245 0.9152 -0.428
Southwest 723 41.05% 32.33 60.72% -1.763 -0.4802 -0.933
West 7610 40.46% 38.1 64.78% -0.422 0.6814 0.97

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 28957 0.0% 15.81 61.16% -1.189 0.0129 -0.317
Not Using Events or Tokens 91363 31.34% 20.15 68.9% 0.297 0.541 0.03
Skip Initial Invader Actions 8374 8.75% 31.56 89.38% 0.468 -0.1088 -1.409
Start of Game Growth 10574 11.42% 31.0 87.15% 0.7 0.2407 0.018
Unlimited Undo 20663 24.59% 26.25 79.94% 0.371 0.1934 0.867
Using Tokens but Not Events 20174 25.07% 25.87 77.15% 0.587 0.5479 0.196

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 18019 100.0% 32.12 100.0% 0.444 0.3319 0.232
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4744 100.0% 27.47 100.0% -0.326 -0.2717 -0.105
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3145 100.0% 27.88 100.0% -0.018 -0.1692 0.09
Downpour Drenches the World 93 100.0% 26.76 100.0% 0.81 1.0556 0.656
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 47 100.0% 24.17 100.0% 1.027 0.6218 -0.585
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3119 100.0% 30.6 100.0% 0.512 -0.0071 -0.251
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2875 100.0% 29.45 100.0% -0.361 -0.8042 -0.107
Finder of Paths Unseen 57 100.0% 27.63 100.0% -0.824 -0.1999 1.09
Fractured Days Split the Sky 435 100.0% 34.16 100.0% -0.46 0.1116 -0.175
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 303 100.0% 28.23 100.0% 0.482 0.3366 -0.143
Heart of the Wildfire 5332 100.0% 27.13 100.0% -0.146 0.0578 -0.17
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 7571 100.0% 33.06 100.0% 0.189 -0.3552 0.103
Lightning's Swift Strike 20259 102.18% 24.79 100.84% -0.267 0.0019 -0.17
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 48 71.79% 31.63 62.5% 0.88 0.1134 -0.211
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 244 36.67% 30.21 70.9% -0.767 -1.1361 1.175
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 440 34.12% 31.28 81.36% -0.576 -0.8254 0.43
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 773 100.0% 29.78 100.0% 0.031 -0.1546 -0.548
Many Minds Move as One 669 100.0% 29.42 100.0% 1.219 0.8678 0.265
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10463 100.0% 33.84 100.0% 0.16 0.0872 0.955
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3037 100.0% 28.25 100.0% 0.252 0.1386 0.028
River Surges in Sunlight 19388 102.01% 27.63 100.64% -0.086 -0.148 0.018
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 527 29.5% 32.7 79.89% -0.216 -0.046 -0.262
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 60 35.19% 25.08 70.0% -0.037 -0.2695 -0.616
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 7600 100.0% 38.01 100.0% -0.301 -0.4725 0.328
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 9377 102.75% 23.23 101.0% -0.393 0.0169 -0.278
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 28 44.0% 16.89 60.71% -0.756 -0.7418 -0.207
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 9 28.57% 19.0 44.44% -0.881 -0.8612 -0.178
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 193 42.78% 26.61 78.76% 0.284 0.2105 -1.069
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 216 35.92% 27.34 82.87% 0.178 0.3026 0.634
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 5023 100.06% 31.85 100.04% -0.211 -0.3942 0.327
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 10 70.0% 16.2 80.0% 0.389 0.3073 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 442 100.0% 32.21 100.0% 0.159 0.4266 -0.104
Shroud of Silent Mist 374 100.0% 25.51 100.0% -0.277 0.0363 0.279
Starlight Seeks its Form 395 100.0% 27.94 100.0% 0.17 -0.0102 -0.259
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1611 100.0% 28.16 100.0% 0.713 0.1897 -0.684
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2483 100.0% 29.97 100.0% -0.33 -0.2503 0.963
Thunderspeaker 10379 100.04% 28.21 100.04% 0.207 0.145 -0.316
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 6 33.33% 7.33 33.33% -0.65 -0.5515 -0.388
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1050 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.281 0.2689 -0.291
Volcano Looming High 602 100.0% 26.97 100.0% -0.343 -0.3406 -0.068

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 88.63%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.65%
Guard the Healing Land 92.11%
Rituals of Destruction 81.79%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 33863 21.84 23.88%
II 72051 31.08 67.48%
III 67015 34.71 78.01%
IV 25683 37.98 99.28%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 8088
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 51387
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 47393
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 25297
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1400
Lose: Invader deck ran out 16346
Lose: Adversary condition 12699
Win: Sacrifice victory 461
Lose: Scenario condition 1877
Win: Scenario condition 1859
Lose: Blight pool ran out 31070
Lose: Spirit destroyed 735

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.908 Win Model: -0.115

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.271 Win Model: 0.168
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 114054 37.15% 21.57 62.91%
2 48563 39.19% 24.4 70.58%
3 17111 35.18% 28.99 76.68%
4 17809 28.28% 33.62 80.87%
5 141 25.41% 32.12 86.52%
6 934 13.74% 30.21 86.62%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-16 03:06:06 (Pacific Time)