Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1991 38.91% 22.83 -0.031 63.34% -0.458 0.1154
Dahan Insurrection 4 1778 28.78% 45.44 -0.028 64.96% -0.529 -0.1289
Despicable Theft 2 16 56.25% 26.06 -0.131 37.5% -1.041 -0.7586
Elemental Invocation 1 79 52.56% 29.8 -0.046 54.43% -0.369 0.0708
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 7194 15.37% 39.86 -0.005 67.36% -0.186 0.1794
Powers Long Forgotten 1 854 48.12% 35.37 -0.043 61.83% -0.425 0.0166
Rituals of Terror 3 775 40.03% 36.73 -0.032 61.68% -0.442 0.2021
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 595 63.45% 32.16 -0.038 56.47% -0.313 0.3282
Second Wave 0 7194 37.6% 26.84 -0.0 71.99% -0.384 0.0442
The Great River 3 49 47.92% 23.61 -0.19 30.61% -2.034 -0.574
Ward the Shores 2 810 43.11% 31.93 -0.068 54.07% -0.839 0.198

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 88579 37.3% 21.73 -0.02 63.59% -0.884 -0.5515
1 Thematic 4217 49.28% 29.22 -0.057 51.03% -1.202 -0.7042
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 27558 41.32% 24.49 0.009 70.38% -0.307 -0.1068
2 Coastline 3182 32.7% 23.95 0.025 75.93% -0.253 -0.0985
2 Fragment 889 39.35% 22.17 0.008 71.99% -0.446 -0.0497
2 Heart 1113 14.83% 23.63 0.056 87.24% -0.155 0.1669
2 Opposite Shores 4618 37.52% 25.96 0.012 72.13% -0.306 -0.0773
2 Thematic 2261 45.26% 34.48 -0.012 63.07% -0.559 -0.4975
2 Top to Top 704 46.38% 24.1 0.015 71.31% -0.193 -0.0611
3 Coastline 46 41.03% 29.91 -0.016 67.39% -0.299 -0.337
3 Other 501 38.32% 23.97 -0.01 72.26% -0.53 -0.1098
3 Round (Default) 13675 35.9% 29.61 0.026 76.7% 0.143 0.1993
3 Sunrise 48 43.48% 29.17 0.045 83.33% 0.294 0.0999
3 Thematic 595 43.99% 35.32 -0.025 63.87% -0.595 -0.9248
4 Coastline 26 16.67% 27.38 0.027 84.62% 0.133 0.2586
4 Leaf 67 33.87% 28.81 0.024 79.1% 0.388 0.4347
4 Other 360 33.24% 30.14 0.028 82.78% 0.277 0.3893
4 Reverse Snake 5 0.0% 40.8 0.064 100.0% 0.537 -0.2447
4 Snake 6 83.33% 34.5 -0.007 66.67% 0.13 0.2845
4 Thematic 2716 29.19% 47.26 0.027 77.61% 0.239 -0.7852
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11793 29.61% 30.76 0.023 81.08% 0.297 0.3312
5 Other 113 39.82% 38.56 0.09 92.92% 1.462 1.2072
5 Thematic 52 13.46% 68.65 0.155 100.0% 2.372 -0.5712

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3514 25.08 -0.141 40.3% -1.797 0.2768
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3204 27.17 -0.108 47.78% -1.509 0.4104
All Things Weaken 1007 24.05 -0.158 36.74% -1.988 0.1712
Back Against the Wall 3164 26.99 -0.124 43.96% -1.633 0.4607
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3305 22.41 -0.156 36.94% -1.939 0.2855
Downward Spiral 12397 19.86 -0.141 44.6% -1.836 0.1855
Erosion of Will 3433 23.81 -0.149 38.86% -1.895 0.3141
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 384 27.57 -0.082 52.86% -1.231 -0.5385
Memory Fades to Dust 12417 19.58 -0.156 41.73% -1.98 0.2384
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1041 23.85 -0.144 39.19% -1.836 0.1847
Promising Farmlands 3475 23.52 -0.149 38.68% -1.879 0.3357
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 268 27.94 -0.023 66.79% -0.732 -0.321
Thriving Communities 972 23.86 -0.142 39.3% -1.798 0.2952
Tipping Point 1958 23.76 -0.139 41.01% -1.763 0.4626
Unnatural Proliferation 1072 26.64 -0.124 43.56% -1.642 0.4477
Untended Land Crumbles 1047 22.79 -0.164 35.05% -2.04 0.0655

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 28993 40.39% 22.02 -0.017 64.31% 0.256 -0.8563
B 31786 36.05% 23.7 0.006 69.43% 0.454 -0.7536
C 34481 34.04% 23.81 0.01 69.86% 0.462 -0.9772
D 31255 35.51% 23.75 0.006 69.21% 0.446 -0.7561
E 4695 41.58% 27.24 0.007 66.6% 0.609 -0.7037
F 8018 38.32% 27.21 0.012 69.43% 0.607 -0.6583
G 6527 40.58% 25.75 -0.007 66.26% 0.349 -0.9079
H 6969 39.67% 26.59 0.005 68.1% 0.513 -0.7525
East 2050 43.48% 34.73 -0.018 62.05% 0.435 -0.5457
Northeast 2549 40.05% 35.79 -0.013 64.69% 0.416 -0.5152
Northwest 2044 45.09% 33.91 -0.034 59.49% 0.239 -0.7608
Southeast 250 42.17% 33.58 0.001 65.6% 0.66 -0.3658
Southwest 240 49.58% 26.48 -0.063 51.67% -0.031 -0.6505
West 2194 39.43% 44.02 -0.005 64.77% 0.608 -0.1171

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 22249 0.0% 16.18 -0.054 62.81% -1.135 0.9197
Not Using Events or Tokens 68710 31.5% 20.3 0.012 69.99% -0.068 0.1495
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6872 8.83% 31.74 0.066 89.36% 0.845 0.1515
Start of Game Growth 8586 11.77% 31.07 0.057 86.89% 0.549 0.0862
Unlimited Undo 16664 24.9% 26.61 0.038 79.68% 0.313 -0.1077
Using Tokens but Not Events 16774 25.75% 25.8 0.035 76.36% 0.118 0.0652

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 14580 22.56% 32.25 0.036 80.83% 0.083 0.2161
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4121 49.44% 27.85 -0.003 70.2% -0.232 -0.0031
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2454 34.5% 28.95 0.027 77.83% 0.03 -0.0557
Eyes Watch From the Trees 2556 30.62% 31.37 0.039 80.52% 0.274 -0.099
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2300 32.62% 30.01 0.036 80.04% 0.208 -0.0526
Fractured Days Split the Sky 464 39.31% 34.93 0.008 70.47% -0.091 0.2774
Heart of the Wildfire 4810 52.38% 27.23 -0.007 68.19% -0.23 0.1206
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 6753 33.44% 33.56 0.04 79.15% 0.312 0.0079
Lightning's Swift Strike 16757 35.49% 25.25 0.007 74.92% -0.271 -0.0112
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 613 41.45% 31.88 0.03 76.02% 0.236 -0.0374
Many Minds Move as One 583 40.07% 30.44 0.025 76.16% 0.055 -0.4593
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 8445 33.15% 34.07 0.039 78.79% 0.353 0.1575
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2372 34.2% 29.15 0.021 76.43% -0.06 -0.0145
River Surges in Sunlight 15612 31.01% 27.93 0.009 75.92% -0.285 -0.1327
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 6762 31.71% 38.2 0.026 75.75% 0.168 0.3121
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8122 44.85% 24.26 0.0 72.49% -0.288 0.1526
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 4581 37.29% 32.25 0.019 74.72% 0.011 -0.0604
Shroud of Silent Mist 194 45.6% 28.65 0.018 73.71% -0.066 -0.0856
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1487 43.07% 29.88 -0.001 69.8% -0.229 -0.2493
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1907 31.23% 31.47 0.032 79.5% 0.07 0.2726
Thunderspeaker 8540 34.41% 28.78 0.02 76.3% -0.058 -0.0067
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 950 58.47% 27.92 0.005 69.37% -0.065 -0.0568
Volcano Looming High 330 51.69% 28.18 0.02 73.03% 0.087 0.0637

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
A Year of Perfect Stillness 87.84%
Draw of the Fruitful Earth 77.11%
Guard the Healing Land 91.41%
Rituals of Destruction 80.87%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 26885 22.34 23.44%
II 58683 30.81 66.72%
III 55307 34.31 77.96%
IV 22250 37.5 99.31%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4343
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 29564
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 26788
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15452
Lose: Invader deck ran out 13346
Lose: Adversary condition 11283
Win: Sacrifice victory 365
Lose: Scenario condition 1617
Win: Scenario condition 1592
Lose: Blight pool ran out 25596
Lose: Spirit destroyed 614

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.157 Win Model: -0.187

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.013 Win Model: 0.072
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 92831 37.93% 22.07 63.02%
2 40356 39.68% 25.11 71.15%
3 14877 36.36% 29.67 76.08%
4 15061 29.58% 33.88 80.61%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.07 Win Model: -0.791
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 141694 26.05 69.29%
Power Progression 21431 15.03 58.28%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)