Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 14.29% 26.0 100.0% 0.627 0.4871 0.0
Blitz 0 12 33.33% 39.5 66.67% -0.475 -0.3645 0.24
Dahan Insurrection 4 13 30.77% 21.92 23.08% -1.911 -2.1461 -1.144
Despicable Theft 2 3 0.0% 28.67 66.67% 0.074 0.7169 -0.105
Elemental Invocation 1 3 33.33% 32.67 66.67% -0.16 0.6415 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 124 23.39% 45.76 72.58% 0.181 -0.5933 0.925
Powers Long Forgotten 1 11 63.64% 24.82 45.45% -0.931 -0.1585 0.324
Rituals of Terror 3 6 83.33% 29.0 83.33% 0.079 0.0947 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 2 50.0% 39.5 100.0% 0.235 1.2923 0.0
Second Wave 0 46 30.43% 28.09 60.87% -0.745 -0.6647 -0.973
The Great River 3 5 20.0% 40.0 80.0% 0.107 1.2356 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 4 75.0% 43.0 75.0% -0.0 0.6917 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.813 0.0499 -0.465

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3627 44.2% 40.46 72.24% 0.296 0.4972 0.817
1 Thematic 63 28.57% 42.81 74.6% 0.494 1.2138 -0.852
2 Archipelago 1 0.0% 26.0 100.0% 0.072 0.3263 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 642 43.91% 37.03 73.21% 0.09 0.0972 0.302
2 Coastline 114 41.23% 33.22 61.4% -0.355 -0.5601 -0.673
2 Fragment 13 46.15% 35.77 92.31% 0.758 0.4804 -0.121
2 Heart 3 100.0% 38.33 66.67% 0.072 -0.1484 -0.129
2 Opposite Shores 156 35.26% 31.34 67.31% -0.389 -0.3324 -0.296
2 Thematic 14 21.43% 33.0 64.29% 0.224 0.6759 -0.239
2 Top to Top 24 70.83% 37.96 70.83% 0.337 0.2388 0.51
3 Coastline 5 40.0% 18.8 40.0% -0.397 -0.9638 0.292
3 Other 16 6.25% 20.19 81.25% 0.39 0.3612 0.642
3 Round (Default) 523 41.49% 31.2 60.04% -0.286 -0.5115 -0.267
3 Thematic 9 44.44% 30.89 66.67% -0.668 -0.4713 0.0
4 Archipelago 7 57.14% 39.29 57.14% -0.374 -1.5597 0.271
4 Coastline 1 100.0% 59.0 100.0% 0.129 -0.4575 0.0
4 Leaf 4 25.0% 20.25 75.0% -0.15 -0.8485 0.0
4 Other 13 30.77% 29.08 61.54% -0.041 -1.3982 -0.979
4 Thematic 8 37.5% 31.25 50.0% -0.457 -0.6554 -0.412
4 Trapezoid (Default) 165 39.39% 35.32 73.94% -0.002 -0.2452 -0.338
5 Other 25 36.0% 33.08 80.0% 0.486 -0.5706 -0.221
6 Archipelago 3 33.33% 57.33 100.0% 0.979 0.2428 0.58
6 Other 14 14.29% 36.07 64.29% 0.516 -0.2205 0.335
6 Star 5 0.0% 25.4 60.0% -0.468 -0.5249 0.258
6 Thematic 28 39.29% 18.07 39.29% -1.212 -0.4579 -0.329
6 Two Centers (Default) 30 33.33% 27.1 66.67% -0.662 -1.2421 -0.599
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 77.0 100.0% 0.044 0.8209 0.16

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 108 45.37 65.74% 0.038 0.1978 0.193
Aid From Lesser Spirits 84 39.75 61.9% -0.149 -0.235 -0.444
All Things Weaken 139 42.33 61.15% -0.215 0.1272 0.208
Attenuated Essence 136 45.31 68.38% 0.145 0.2192 0.098
Back Against the Wall 83 43.51 65.06% -0.141 -0.0661 -0.331
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 110 39.4 59.09% -0.325 -0.1338 0.144
Burn Brightest Before the End 107 39.07 62.62% -0.192 -0.0681 -0.263
Disintegrating Ecosystem 123 38.47 59.35% -0.237 0.1359 -0.304
Downward Spiral 121 42.74 70.25% 0.177 0.3136 0.506
Erosion of Will 110 42.98 60.91% -0.124 0.1711 0.127
Intensifying Exploitation 124 43.01 66.94% 0.072 0.3101 0.304
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 57 37.44 71.93% 0.134 -0.3985 -0.356
Memory Fades to Dust 114 40.73 59.65% -0.31 -0.0295 -0.43
Power Corrodes the Spirit 95 45.34 74.74% 0.448 0.6016 0.173
Promising Farmlands 114 41.34 62.28% -0.196 0.1503 -0.228
Shattered Fragments of Power 85 47.02 67.06% 0.178 0.3725 0.299
Slow Dissolution of Will 116 37.51 52.59% -0.671 -0.2194 -0.316
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 33 41.36 78.79% 0.106 -0.6343 1.288
The Border of Life and Death 33 51.06 90.91% 1.222 0.7884 0.867
Thriving Communities 145 44.21 70.34% 0.187 0.4852 0.165
Thriving Crops 62 48.52 77.42% 0.587 0.4845 0.219
Unnatural Proliferation 122 47.59 69.67% 0.314 0.4592 0.84
Untended Land Crumbles 139 41.81 58.99% -0.22 0.0797 -0.345

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1075 41.4% 34.04 66.88% -0.086 0.9086 0.147
B 1284 41.73% 35.91 68.61% 0.117 1.0352 0.07
C 1326 41.47% 37.56 70.14% 0.249 0.9912 0.428
D 1012 41.33% 39.23 73.91% 0.584 1.536 0.631
E 1014 44.27% 35.81 69.23% 0.188 0.969 -0.006
F 885 43.07% 35.22 67.46% 0.1 0.9927 -0.014
G 929 39.66% 37.73 71.26% 0.316 1.1712 0.274
H 837 42.4% 36.67 69.65% 0.196 1.0444 0.274
East 98 33.67% 32.46 61.22% -0.11 0.6597 0.086
Northeast 67 34.33% 29.06 59.7% -0.787 0.0001 -0.444
Northwest 55 34.55% 26.25 49.09% -0.831 0.1521 -0.43
Southeast 39 33.33% 22.54 48.72% 0.292 1.1664 0.0
Southwest 39 38.46% 22.67 48.72% 0.677 1.8847 -0.416
West 77 32.47% 29.08 54.55% -0.859 0.075 -0.628

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 20 0.0% 25.55 75.0% -0.86 -0.2301 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 50.0% 28.86 85.71% 0.146 0.6521 -0.095
Skip Initial Invader Actions 123 21.85% 51.02 82.93% 1.15 0.5148 -0.357
Start of Game Growth 154 22.15% 49.03 79.22% 0.166 -0.2232 -0.396
Unlimited Undo 671 34.18% 34.68 62.44% -0.472 -0.4279 0.001
Using Tokens but Not Events 321 28.81% 26.92 74.14% -0.392 -0.4187 -0.337

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 90 100.0% 32.62 100.0% 0.146 0.023 0.039
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 24 100.0% 33.13 100.0% 0.714 0.4867 -0.604
Downpour Drenches the World 46 100.0% 35.52 100.0% -0.201 0.1247 -0.399
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 88 100.0% 30.34 100.0% -0.131 -0.6301 0.257
Eyes Watch From the Trees 81 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.236 -0.2249 0.892
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 43 100.0% 29.84 100.0% -0.166 -0.5949 0.112
Finder of Paths Unseen 42 100.0% 34.19 100.0% -0.039 0.784 0.106
Fractured Days Split the Sky 42 100.0% 39.79 100.0% 0.099 0.6965 -0.32
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 34 100.0% 26.76 100.0% -0.443 -0.4434 -0.431
Heart of the Wildfire 34 100.0% 18.91 100.0% -0.389 -0.0043 -0.234
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 97 268.04% 33.78 185.57% 0.115 -0.3796 0.356
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds — Spreading Hostility 275 40.73% 31.25 69.82% -0.241 -0.7881 -0.111
Lightning's Swift Strike 34 285.29% 27.35 188.24% -0.656 -0.4732 -1.526
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 39 51.28% 35.9 71.79% 0.292 -0.2449 -0.413
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 37 21.62% 35.59 70.27% -0.072 -0.3633 0.424
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 20 25.0% 31.05 60.0% -0.47 -0.6182 -0.003
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 75 100.0% 37.57 100.0% 0.611 0.3593 -0.154
Many Minds Move as One 77 100.0% 27.82 100.0% 0.114 -0.0428 0.108
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 352 100.0% 35.82 100.0% 0.264 0.2751 0.284
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 38 100.0% 29.97 100.0% -0.313 -0.4585 -0.263
River Surges in Sunlight 43 200.0% 38.02 165.12% 0.229 0.2664 0.778
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 17 35.29% 38.53 82.35% 0.488 0.7483 0.238
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 57 43.86% 36.28 56.14% 0.295 0.2445 -0.549
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 43 100.0% 35.14 100.0% 0.238 0.064 0.746
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 2 11300.0% 25.0 5150.0% 0.302 0.9145 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 3 33.33% 30.33 66.67% -0.239 -0.135 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Dark Fire 339 41.59% 35.46 74.93% 0.336 -0.2456 0.315
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 18 27.78% 28.11 55.56% -0.329 -0.2827 0.2
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 10 20.0% 17.7 30.0% -1.198 -1.1173 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 3 0.0% 35.67 100.0% 0.359 0.5666 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 16 256.25% 13.63 143.75% -1.712 -1.6333 0.0
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 34 26.47% 37.29 79.41% 0.41 0.0879 0.045
Shifting Memory of Ages 44 100.0% 34.48 100.0% -0.243 0.022 0.365
Shroud of Silent Mist 62 100.0% 25.06 100.0% -0.523 -0.1551 -1.3
Starlight Seeks its Form 64 100.0% 36.08 100.0% 0.534 0.3063 0.754
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 90 100.0% 11.33 100.0% -1.558 -1.9142 -0.635
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 51 100.0% 31.18 100.0% -0.044 0.0892 -0.331
Thunderspeaker 18 150.0% 28.56 133.33% 0.294 0.323 -0.289
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 21 57.14% 35.29 71.43% 0.313 0.5525 -0.334
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 39 100.0% 37.97 100.0% 0.445 0.6355 0.656
Vital Strength of the Earth 21 214.29% 27.05 157.14% 0.767 1.3244 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 27 33.33% 28.22 62.96% -0.237 0.1727 0.552
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 14 57.14% 30.57 85.71% 0.581 1.3096 0.0
Volcano Looming High 70 100.0% 39.84 100.0% 0.968 0.9869 1.234
Wandering Voice Keens Delirium 475 100.0% 33.1 100.0% 0.002 -0.592 -0.327

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Call On Midnight's Dreams 30.84%
Dread Apparitions 82.19%
Dreams Of the Dahan 0.0%
Predatory Nightmares 80.93%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 669 17.67 0.15%
II 687 30.7 8.3%
III 1193 34.75 73.51%
IV 2965 38.22 99.9%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 874
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 55
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2933
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 881
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 279
Win: Sacrifice victory 31
Lose: Scenario condition 14
Win: Scenario condition 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 415
Lose: Spirit destroyed 27

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.879 Win Model: -0.19

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.5 Win Model: -0.003
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3697 43.95% 40.47 72.25%
2 966 42.63% 35.72 71.01%
3 552 40.22% 30.49 60.33%
4 194 39.69% 35.07 72.16%
5 28 32.14% 29.54 71.43%
6 77 31.17% 28.57 61.04%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)