Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 2 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.119 -0.0832 0.0
Blitz 0 388 67.96% 24.15 58.76% 0.037 0.2941 -1.118
Dahan Insurrection 4 270 70.37% 36.99 42.59% -0.705 -0.2923 -0.662
Despicable Theft 2 55 81.82% 31.22 65.45% 0.285 0.731 0.248
Elemental Invocation 1 173 79.77% 28.89 68.21% -0.449 0.0366 -0.947
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2654 32.99% 40.04 69.74% 0.019 0.3249 0.555
Powers Long Forgotten 1 143 85.31% 27.71 53.15% -0.337 -0.1556 -1.04
Rituals of Terror 3 154 74.68% 27.26 34.42% 0.172 0.2931 -1.447
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 177 93.22% 30.79 51.41% 0.192 0.6071 -0.981
Second Wave 0 2578 59.68% 25.3 67.61% -0.602 -0.0358 -0.173
The Great River 3 106 64.15% 28.38 43.4% -0.602 0.7961 -0.249
Varied Terrains 2 21 66.67% 22.9 52.38% -1.26 -0.7339 -0.634
Ward the Shores 2 207 85.99% 25.24 28.5% -1.018 0.1441 -2.013

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 46090 81.49% 31.26 62.34% -0.143 0.8731 0.252
1 Thematic 1545 81.52% 26.95 53.2% 0.003 1.1757 -0.468
2 Archipelago 23 73.91% 34.78 69.57% 0.104 1.0871 -0.012
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 9953 73.16% 30.15 63.71% -0.142 0.6091 0.001
2 Coastline 1077 66.7% 28.67 68.15% 0.476 1.0789 0.301
2 Fragment 387 80.31% 36.44 66.67% -0.637 -0.1896 0.794
2 Heart 164 73.78% 27.56 60.37% -0.013 0.5253 0.09
2 Opposite Shores 2128 61.32% 27.07 68.52% 0.29 1.2822 -0.711
2 Other 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Thematic 733 72.19% 29.17 56.48% -0.241 0.4578 -1.294
2 Top to Top 275 74.36% 31.25 62.91% 0.0 0.5108 -0.464
3 Archipelago 11 54.55% 40.91 90.91% 0.116 0.2891 -0.439
3 Coastline 29 75.86% 31.0 65.52% 0.487 -0.2962 -0.498
3 Other 294 57.73% 31.1 77.89% 0.877 0.8409 1.039
3 Round (Default) 5023 64.63% 32.01 66.2% -0.119 0.4759 -0.079
3 Sunrise 37 70.27% 47.54 78.38% 0.002 0.0384 0.839
3 Thematic 192 65.63% 30.58 60.94% 0.261 0.2238 0.222
4 Archipelago 6 33.33% 43.33 100.0% 0.042 -0.6694 0.0
4 Coastline 34 23.53% 33.03 91.18% 0.0 0.1166 0.232
4 Leaf 25 44.0% 35.52 68.0% 0.0 0.5626 -0.972
4 Other 292 40.75% 40.18 75.0% 0.405 0.1511 -0.495
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 758 48.21% 37.22 74.14% -0.198 0.331 -1.034
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3555 48.53% 32.73 74.12% -0.331 -0.3586 -0.012
5 Archipelago 7 85.71% 36.71 71.43% 0.0 -0.5788 -0.254
5 Coastline 5 0.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.0 -0.5647 0.0
5 Other 152 43.05% 32.3 84.21% -0.51 -0.3414 0.185
5 Thematic 22 59.09% 37.95 86.36% 0.031 -0.246 0.958
6 Archipelago 2 50.0% 22.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.2557 0.0
6 Other 31 51.61% 26.81 67.74% -0.741 0.0684 -0.27
6 Star 20 60.0% 36.45 65.0% -1.007 -0.2232 -0.611
6 Thematic 80 44.87% 33.98 86.25% 0.216 -0.0622 1.357
6 Two Centers (Default) 146 41.1% 36.66 86.3% 0.242 0.1478 0.644
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.5774 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 3 100.0% 51.0 100.0% 0.489 -0.6631 0.675

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4026 32.27 55.12% -1.265 0.6375 0.251
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3060 33.9 59.58% -1.309 0.4212 0.633
All Things Weaken 4403 30.01 52.8% -1.31 0.6751 0.226
Back Against the Wall 3031 33.0 57.11% -0.908 0.9088 0.566
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4034 29.81 55.01% -1.238 0.8123 0.262
Downward Spiral 4422 30.78 60.76% -0.983 1.0097 0.388
Erosion of Will 3976 30.49 52.64% -1.257 0.8265 0.078
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1253 33.71 82.76% 0.392 0.8333 0.861
Memory Fades to Dust 4280 29.63 56.24% -1.142 0.9426 0.247
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4470 30.1 56.38% -1.297 0.6411 0.241
Promising Farmlands 3887 29.5 52.23% -1.404 0.6415 0.067
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 828 34.4 86.84% -0.217 0.2077 0.88
Thriving Communities 4425 29.47 54.73% -1.198 0.7856 0.174
Tipping Point 1 8.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.1175 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 4518 31.72 55.95% -0.986 0.9783 0.29
Untended Land Crumbles 4257 29.43 54.05% -1.053 0.9406 0.263

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 14485 70.05% 30.67 66.01% 0.05 0.8474 -0.01
B 14534 69.62% 31.12 65.68% -0.127 0.616 0.072
C 19800 72.94% 32.97 64.8% 0.016 0.5845 -0.057
D 13033 70.9% 30.24 65.69% 0.005 0.801 0.016
E 12409 69.52% 30.95 66.14% 0.06 0.7073 0.016
F 12135 70.44% 31.28 66.39% -0.144 0.5801 0.092
G 11235 70.69% 31.42 65.84% 0.2 0.9315 0.129
H 10754 70.08% 30.97 66.11% -0.08 0.632 0.173
East 2400 66.04% 31.99 63.21% -0.042 0.7269 0.168
Northeast 1214 63.63% 32.86 62.36% -1.201 -0.3413 -0.999
Northwest 978 61.46% 33.31 66.67% 0.028 1.1047 -0.031
Southeast 944 59.89% 31.43 69.6% 0.725 1.4308 0.05
Southwest 783 59.74% 31.09 67.05% -0.214 0.9114 -0.068
West 2012 63.61% 31.71 62.18% 0.777 1.7312 0.149

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 617 0.0% 17.22 75.85% -0.498 1.6317 -0.592
Not Using Events or Tokens 24 89.47% 18.58 50.0% 0.308 0.483 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1993 29.47% 46.89 89.41% -0.932 -1.0746 2.237
Start of Game Growth 2763 33.77% 42.83 87.3% 1.969 1.2084 0.678
Unlimited Undo 7477 65.91% 36.58 72.53% 0.893 0.2892 0.289
Using Tokens but Not Events 5234 63.2% 23.14 73.79% -0.448 -0.604 -1.033

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2536 100.0% 33.68 100.0% 0.332 0.2171 0.235
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1062 100.0% 29.31 100.0% -0.191 -0.0947 -0.255
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1439 100.0% 31.51 100.0% 0.252 0.0906 0.026
Downpour Drenches the World 117 100.0% 40.8 100.0% 0.411 0.6634 0.772
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1510 100.0% 33.75 100.0% 0.485 0.0475 0.298
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1603 100.0% 31.34 100.0% 0.896 0.408 -0.183
Finder of Paths Unseen 64 100.0% 32.84 100.0% -0.076 0.2871 0.522
Fractured Days Split the Sky 707 100.0% 36.01 100.0% 0.67 0.7259 0.217
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 440 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.061 -0.093 -0.063
Heart of the Wildfire 2796 100.0% 28.79 100.0% -0.534 -0.3593 -0.816
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2706 100.0% 34.13 100.0% -0.034 -0.4907 0.068
Lightning's Swift Strike 924 131.53% 28.8 123.05% -0.262 0.0121 -0.276
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 27 48.15% 36.74 77.78% -0.102 -0.8786 0.696
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 312 59.49% 32.26 68.91% 0.405 -0.238 0.108
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 374 59.25% 35.71 70.59% -0.64 -0.9065 0.553
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1688 100.0% 33.07 100.0% -0.559 -0.826 -0.354
Many Minds Move as One 1285 100.0% 33.2 100.0% 0.646 0.0429 0.077
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1774 100.0% 36.08 100.0% -0.539 -0.7244 0.745
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1429 100.0% 31.01 100.0% 0.147 0.1679 -0.161
River Surges in Sunlight 1305 110.84% 33.65 110.73% -0.016 -0.0504 0.043
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 370 63.01% 30.29 62.97% 0.162 0.5934 -0.629
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 17 58.82% 32.24 82.35% 0.193 -0.107 -0.083
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1790 100.0% 34.58 100.0% -0.208 -0.2606 -0.342
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 597 140.64% 27.59 135.34% 0.871 1.2805 0.321
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 76.92% 35.08 61.54% 0.173 0.1796 0.436
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 14 42.86% 37.36 71.43% -0.133 -0.4801 0.471
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 314 57.64% 31.71 65.61% -0.053 -0.0334 -0.127
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 234 57.51% 28.15 59.83% 0.159 0.3417 0.502
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1584 100.0% 35.46 100.0% 0.502 0.2152 0.187
Shifting Memory of Ages 405 100.0% 29.45 100.0% -0.407 -0.332 -0.493
Shroud of Silent Mist 580 100.0% 28.49 100.0% -0.398 -0.162 0.366
Starlight Seeks its Form 438 100.0% 36.6 100.0% -0.241 -0.3806 0.141
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 6323 100.0% 29.59 100.0% 0.01 -0.1724 -0.35
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1246 100.0% 32.17 100.0% 0.25 0.4345 0.133
Thunderspeaker 1232 100.0% 32.31 100.0% -0.329 -0.2651 -0.437
Vital Strength of the Earth 992 109.07% 27.25 110.18% 0.845 1.6539 -0.72
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 19 78.95% 32.84 47.37% -1.025 -0.6385 -0.896
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 265 67.55% 30.08 65.66% -0.778 0.3959 -0.328
Volcano Looming High 1201 100.0% 30.79 100.0% -0.66 -0.664 -0.263

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 77.75%
Fiery Vengeance 75.0%
Plaguebearers 90.57%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.64%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 8986 22.56 1.64%
II 19538 30.98 30.67%
III 28877 34.53 86.02%
IV 15707 37.77 99.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 147
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 24632
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 5921
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 15588
Lose: Invader deck ran out 328
Lose: Adversary condition 7261
Win: Sacrifice victory 181
Lose: Scenario condition 659
Win: Scenario condition 174
Lose: Blight pool ran out 17368
Lose: Spirit destroyed 849

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.17 Win Model: -0.203

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.167 Win Model: 0.227
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 47695 81.5% 31.12 62.03%
2 14795 71.05% 29.72 64.56%
3 5547 64.33% 32.04 66.7%
4 4721 47.67% 33.93 74.52%
5 70 32.86% 30.16 84.29%
6 280 45.13% 34.71 82.5%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)