Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 11 45.45% 34.09 100.0% 0.537 1.0325 0.0
Blitz 0 404 67.08% 24.6 59.65% 0.096 0.5394 -1.186
Dahan Insurrection 4 282 69.5% 37.54 44.33% 0.113 0.2098 -0.677
Despicable Theft 2 63 80.95% 30.84 65.08% 0.395 0.894 0.259
Elemental Invocation 1 188 79.26% 29.45 68.62% 0.275 0.8207 -0.858
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2791 33.47% 40.05 69.51% -0.187 0.0446 0.478
Powers Long Forgotten 1 148 85.14% 27.83 53.38% -0.14 0.2679 -1.054
Rituals of Terror 3 176 75.57% 27.84 31.25% -1.723 -1.9591 -1.798
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 188 92.55% 30.74 51.6% 0.236 0.4627 -0.83
Second Wave 0 2767 59.42% 25.35 67.69% -0.78 -0.0879 -0.242
The Great River 3 112 63.39% 28.48 42.86% -1.087 0.4941 -0.49
Varied Terrains 2 33 69.7% 23.12 51.52% -0.944 -0.1577 -0.85
Ward the Shores 2 209 85.65% 25.38 28.71% -0.286 0.5948 -2.026

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 49197 81.53% 31.35 62.36% 0.473 1.1364 0.379
1 Thematic 1847 80.64% 27.39 58.64% 0.561 1.6174 -0.354
2 Archipelago 25 72.0% 36.2 68.0% 0.121 0.592 0.077
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10539 73.03% 30.16 63.8% 0.028 0.5465 0.013
2 Coastline 1170 66.41% 28.92 68.97% 0.892 1.0923 0.406
2 Fragment 404 80.4% 36.53 66.09% 0.626 0.9237 0.78
2 Heart 182 75.27% 27.76 58.79% -0.047 0.4132 -0.032
2 Opposite Shores 2218 61.29% 27.17 68.67% 0.226 0.7652 -0.674
2 Thematic 772 72.3% 29.14 55.96% -1.374 -0.5918 -1.27
2 Top to Top 306 75.0% 31.68 62.09% 0.197 0.3247 -0.356
3 Archipelago 12 58.33% 39.58 91.67% 0.284 0.0651 -0.444
3 Coastline 31 70.97% 30.61 67.74% 0.0 -0.5071 -0.53
3 Other 307 59.21% 30.92 77.2% -0.275 -0.9395 0.97
3 Round (Default) 5380 64.97% 32.04 66.25% -0.088 0.2169 -0.135
3 Sunrise 37 70.27% 47.54 78.38% 0.0 0.46 0.835
3 Thematic 202 64.85% 30.58 59.9% -0.842 -0.6344 0.183
4 Archipelago 7 28.57% 42.86 100.0% 0.0 -0.0374 0.0
4 Coastline 39 28.21% 30.95 89.74% 0.0 -0.0373 0.216
4 Leaf 28 50.0% 34.18 64.29% -0.725 -0.8266 -1.011
4 Other 301 40.53% 39.71 75.42% 0.721 0.0073 -0.359
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 776 47.99% 37.06 74.23% -0.488 -0.3838 -1.208
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3717 48.55% 32.8 74.17% -0.454 -0.376 -0.206
5 Archipelago 7 85.71% 36.71 71.43% 0.0 -0.0975 -0.25
5 Coastline 6 0.0% 26.33 100.0% 0.148 -0.4399 0.0
5 Other 171 43.53% 32.94 84.21% -0.003 -0.5192 0.143
5 Thematic 23 60.87% 37.3 82.61% 0.0 -0.2873 0.876
6 Archipelago 5 40.0% 46.8 100.0% 0.402 0.2558 0.0
6 Other 44 51.16% 29.3 77.27% 0.481 0.526 0.021
6 Star 26 53.85% 34.65 73.08% 0.104 0.874 -0.692
6 Thematic 111 49.54% 36.13 82.88% -0.679 -0.438 1.44
6 Two Centers (Default) 193 39.9% 37.18 85.49% -0.499 -0.3077 0.233
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 7 66.67% 35.57 100.0% 0.251 -0.2332 0.641

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4307 32.41 55.42% -0.762 1.2087 0.226
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3262 34.14 59.93% -0.49 1.288 0.635
All Things Weaken 4730 30.05 52.88% -1.014 1.035 0.203
Back Against the Wall 3241 33.04 57.3% -0.762 1.1772 0.539
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4320 29.92 55.16% -0.957 1.1708 0.258
Downward Spiral 4724 30.86 60.75% -0.804 1.1572 0.371
Erosion of Will 4242 30.63 52.73% -0.972 1.1094 0.058
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1345 33.69 82.9% 0.343 0.8449 0.828
Memory Fades to Dust 4558 29.79 56.43% -0.991 1.15 0.244
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4757 30.11 56.42% -0.916 1.0648 0.205
Promising Farmlands 4161 29.62 52.27% -0.81 1.2113 0.067
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 873 34.52 86.83% 0.569 1.0653 0.942
Thriving Communities 4697 29.61 55.08% -0.731 1.328 0.163
Tipping Point 1 8.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 4784 31.85 56.06% -0.776 1.1813 0.305
Untended Land Crumbles 4549 29.62 54.36% -0.726 1.3073 0.273

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15420 69.94% 30.79 66.13% 0.278 1.0143 -0.026
B 15499 69.74% 31.18 65.78% -0.013 0.6839 0.046
C 21075 72.91% 33.0 64.78% 0.085 0.5552 -0.084
D 13879 70.97% 30.27 65.83% 0.178 0.8871 -0.0
E 13295 69.63% 31.03 66.16% -0.073 0.4715 -0.016
F 12949 70.37% 31.39 66.75% 0.375 1.0361 0.093
G 12003 70.65% 31.55 65.85% 0.106 0.7364 0.109
H 11420 70.07% 31.09 66.23% 0.022 0.6863 0.154
East 2682 66.29% 31.87 65.14% -0.33 0.3319 0.108
Northeast 1292 63.5% 33.01 62.62% -0.784 -0.1238 -1.045
Northwest 1088 62.6% 33.28 67.28% -0.213 0.3971 -0.035
Southeast 1150 61.78% 31.17 72.96% 0.819 1.3501 0.048
Southwest 864 59.81% 31.3 67.71% -0.118 0.8505 -0.082
West 2209 64.37% 31.69 62.88% -0.753 0.053 0.066

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 786 0.0% 17.03 78.75% 0.545 2.7743 -0.564
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 90.0% 18.96 52.0% 0.285 0.5114 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2086 29.32% 47.22 89.74% 1.828 0.8475 2.545
Start of Game Growth 2872 33.8% 43.13 87.43% 0.257 -0.1997 0.689
Unlimited Undo 7948 65.69% 36.56 72.76% 0.398 -0.1531 0.29
Using Tokens but Not Events 5667 63.79% 22.82 73.85% -0.407 -0.2518 -1.09

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2664 100.0% 33.83 100.0% 0.196 0.1212 0.232
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1120 100.0% 29.5 100.0% -0.092 -0.0134 -0.19
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1519 100.0% 31.57 100.0% 0.208 -0.017 0.022
Downpour Drenches the World 195 100.0% 39.94 100.0% 0.388 0.6526 0.815
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1601 100.0% 33.58 100.0% 0.629 0.1261 0.329
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1665 100.0% 31.33 100.0% 0.639 0.0523 -0.155
Finder of Paths Unseen 141 100.0% 33.84 100.0% -0.531 -0.1757 0.999
Fractured Days Split the Sky 761 100.0% 36.21 100.0% -0.163 -0.0807 0.214
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 542 100.0% 34.08 100.0% 0.041 -0.0538 -0.065
Heart of the Wildfire 2954 100.0% 28.59 100.0% -0.742 -0.3365 -0.848
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2843 100.0% 34.31 100.0% 0.314 -0.2892 0.102
Lightning's Swift Strike 954 133.68% 28.74 124.63% -0.681 -0.3164 -0.275
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 66 56.06% 36.94 77.27% 0.006 -0.7428 0.233
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 332 60.42% 32.08 68.98% -0.953 -1.517 0.057
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 400 59.4% 35.67 70.75% 0.248 -0.2468 0.475
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1825 100.0% 32.9 100.0% -0.242 -0.3932 -0.358
Many Minds Move as One 1359 100.0% 33.22 100.0% 0.869 0.2833 0.112
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1882 100.0% 35.94 100.0% -0.318 -0.4875 0.714
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1523 100.0% 30.9 100.0% -0.278 -0.3344 -0.134
River Surges in Sunlight 1346 112.44% 33.65 111.44% 0.064 -0.01 0.048
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 393 62.11% 30.09 63.87% -0.437 -0.0107 -0.661
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 49 57.14% 39.59 75.51% -0.079 -0.4202 -0.064
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1895 100.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.286 0.0928 -0.297
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 610 142.39% 27.56 136.23% -0.08 0.395 0.244
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 22 68.18% 35.09 63.64% 0.118 0.2977 0.077
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 23 39.13% 40.09 82.61% 0.527 0.5825 0.689
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 333 58.86% 31.8 66.07% 0.92 0.8975 -0.039
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 240 57.74% 28.25 60.0% -0.357 -0.241 0.51
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1693 100.0% 35.57 100.0% -0.207 -0.3985 0.194
Shifting Memory of Ages 475 100.0% 30.4 100.0% 0.214 0.4292 -0.313
Shroud of Silent Mist 651 100.0% 28.74 100.0% -0.054 0.0804 0.213
Starlight Seeks its Form 567 100.0% 36.66 100.0% 0.083 -0.0323 0.107
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 6546 100.0% 29.67 100.0% 0.061 -0.1781 -0.363
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1347 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.055 0.0757 0.122
Thunderspeaker 1327 100.0% 32.55 100.0% 0.042 0.0251 -0.402
Vital Strength of the Earth 1024 110.74% 27.24 110.94% -0.225 0.6734 -0.643
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 45 71.11% 33.07 60.0% -0.185 0.238 -0.806
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 282 65.6% 29.91 66.67% 0.33 1.4448 -0.366
Volcano Looming High 1332 100.0% 30.83 100.0% -0.197 -0.2181 -0.275

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 77.54%
Fiery Vengeance 74.87%
Plaguebearers 90.57%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.65%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9573 22.65 1.61%
II 20753 31.08 30.67%
III 30961 34.66 86.07%
IV 16816 37.91 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 154
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 26417
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6287
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16694
Lose: Invader deck ran out 356
Lose: Adversary condition 7685
Win: Sacrifice victory 203
Lose: Scenario condition 696
Win: Scenario condition 184
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18522
Lose: Spirit destroyed 905

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.199 Win Model: -0.229

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.188 Win Model: 0.35
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 51118 81.5% 31.21 62.22%
2 15672 71.01% 29.78 64.6%
3 5921 64.62% 32.05 66.69%
4 4919 47.74% 33.91 74.55%
5 90 35.56% 31.21 84.44%
6 383 45.12% 35.81 83.03%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)