Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 7 42.86% 27.29 100.0% 0.309 0.7489 0.0
Blitz 0 397 67.77% 24.17 59.19% 0.133 0.3892 -1.168
Dahan Insurrection 4 277 69.68% 37.3 43.32% -0.755 -0.4528 -0.671
Despicable Theft 2 61 81.97% 30.64 65.57% -0.33 0.215 0.248
Elemental Invocation 1 183 79.78% 29.5 68.31% -0.276 0.3354 -0.853
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2724 33.21% 40.11 69.57% 0.053 0.2472 0.507
Powers Long Forgotten 1 145 85.52% 27.52 52.41% -0.879 -0.634 -1.051
Rituals of Terror 3 155 74.84% 27.15 34.19% -0.453 -1.2889 -1.505
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 185 92.97% 30.4 50.81% -1.293 -0.7678 -0.978
Second Wave 0 2680 59.48% 25.31 67.69% -0.708 -0.1354 -0.15
The Great River 3 110 62.73% 28.45 42.73% -0.736 0.9029 -0.467
Varied Terrains 2 28 71.43% 22.04 50.0% -0.665 0.0806 -0.63
Ward the Shores 2 207 85.99% 25.24 28.5% 0.0 1.0547 -2.019

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 47914 81.54% 31.29 62.24% 0.333 0.7782 0.322
1 Thematic 1752 80.85% 27.31 57.31% 0.568 1.2001 -0.391
2 Archipelago 23 73.91% 34.78 69.57% 0.0 0.0128 0.007
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10274 73.07% 30.11 63.9% 0.227 0.5715 0.016
2 Coastline 1142 66.29% 28.72 68.56% 0.661 0.7433 0.337
2 Fragment 396 80.25% 36.34 65.91% -0.202 -0.1136 0.775
2 Heart 180 75.0% 27.79 58.33% -0.194 0.4173 -0.03
2 Opposite Shores 2182 61.44% 27.09 68.47% 0.19 0.5686 -0.693
2 Thematic 761 72.43% 29.12 56.24% -0.461 0.0565 -1.284
2 Top to Top 289 74.22% 31.38 61.94% -0.711 -0.5718 -0.42
3 Archipelago 11 54.55% 40.91 90.91% 0.095 -0.8823 -0.43
3 Coastline 31 70.97% 30.61 67.74% 0.847 0.1982 -0.513
3 Other 302 58.53% 31.12 77.81% -0.047 -1.1186 0.986
3 Round (Default) 5219 64.85% 32.02 66.18% -0.147 0.045 -0.116
3 Sunrise 37 70.27% 47.54 78.38% 0.0 0.3199 0.844
3 Thematic 199 64.32% 30.6 60.3% -1.084 -1.3298 0.192
4 Archipelago 7 28.57% 42.86 100.0% 0.026 -0.3758 0.0
4 Coastline 38 28.95% 31.08 89.47% -0.468 -0.2705 0.226
4 Leaf 28 50.0% 34.18 64.29% -0.896 -0.4053 -0.985
4 Other 297 41.08% 39.91 75.08% 0.066 -0.4752 -0.303
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 764 48.23% 37.2 74.35% 0.231 0.2365 -1.111
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3650 48.61% 32.82 74.16% 0.153 0.0117 -0.121
5 Archipelago 7 85.71% 36.71 71.43% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.256
5 Coastline 5 0.0% 27.6 100.0% 0.0 -0.2575 0.0
5 Other 164 42.94% 32.86 84.15% -0.454 -0.6293 0.415
5 Thematic 23 60.87% 37.3 82.61% -0.657 -0.6912 0.916
6 Archipelago 3 66.67% 34.0 100.0% 0.182 -0.5693 0.0
6 Other 39 52.63% 28.41 74.36% 0.36 1.0569 -0.333
6 Star 24 54.17% 35.96 70.83% 0.199 0.7312 -0.642
6 Thematic 93 46.15% 34.71 86.02% -0.148 0.3512 1.226
6 Two Centers (Default) 169 42.01% 36.63 85.8% -0.4 -0.1737 0.397
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 80.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.762 -0.0094 0.686

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4197 32.34 55.25% -0.825 1.0846 0.237
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3174 34.07 59.8% -0.805 0.8799 0.63
All Things Weaken 4598 30.04 52.78% -1.063 0.9372 0.23
Back Against the Wall 3152 33.06 57.23% -0.953 0.9946 0.553
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4210 29.9 55.11% -1.068 0.997 0.254
Downward Spiral 4615 30.76 60.63% -0.881 1.0812 0.358
Erosion of Will 4135 30.5 52.53% -1.194 0.9132 0.066
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1301 33.74 82.94% 0.289 0.9053 0.849
Memory Fades to Dust 4444 29.75 56.41% -0.698 1.3598 0.24
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4643 29.99 56.34% -1.061 0.918 0.208
Promising Farmlands 4040 29.47 52.05% -1.396 0.7064 0.057
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 860 34.47 86.63% 0.093 0.4224 0.907
Thriving Communities 4585 29.5 54.85% -0.865 1.1842 0.171
Tipping Point 1 8.0 0.0% 0.0 0.8445 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 4671 31.75 55.9% -0.913 1.0307 0.303
Untended Land Crumbles 4428 29.53 54.22% -0.822 1.2045 0.27

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15008 70.02% 30.7 66.07% -0.08 0.679 -0.037
B 15103 69.74% 31.17 65.71% -0.146 0.531 0.045
C 20517 73.03% 32.97 64.78% -0.185 0.3402 -0.072
D 13531 71.04% 30.23 65.66% -0.015 0.7116 0.021
E 12931 69.64% 30.97 66.08% -0.324 0.2359 -0.014
F 12596 70.38% 31.31 66.54% 0.037 0.7266 0.083
G 11676 70.66% 31.46 65.72% -0.178 0.5176 0.116
H 11142 70.15% 31.04 66.19% -0.066 0.5946 0.158
East 2615 66.42% 31.87 65.16% 0.031 0.7104 0.128
Northeast 1259 63.58% 32.96 62.75% -0.107 0.4624 -1.044
Northwest 1023 62.08% 33.21 66.57% -0.952 -0.1098 -0.051
Southeast 1107 61.74% 31.06 72.81% 1.001 1.5271 0.024
Southwest 818 59.75% 31.19 67.36% -0.088 0.8535 -0.091
West 2099 63.98% 31.71 62.27% -0.85 0.1503 0.118

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 716 0.0% 17.09 77.51% 0.621 2.7396 -0.572
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 90.0% 18.96 52.0% 0.232 0.4722 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2047 29.29% 47.15 89.59% 2.018 1.6492 2.487
Start of Game Growth 2829 33.71% 43.04 87.35% 0.135 -0.4872 0.655
Unlimited Undo 7721 65.78% 36.6 72.57% 0.402 -0.2289 0.291
Using Tokens but Not Events 5507 63.76% 22.86 73.51% -0.632 -0.5885 -1.082

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2608 100.0% 33.76 100.0% -0.294 -0.3418 0.227
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1086 100.0% 29.36 100.0% 0.371 0.4351 -0.189
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1485 100.0% 31.47 100.0% -0.03 -0.2684 0.016
Downpour Drenches the World 159 100.0% 40.38 100.0% 0.511 0.9023 0.788
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1564 100.0% 33.6 100.0% 0.556 0.1409 0.318
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1632 100.0% 31.35 100.0% 0.089 -0.5054 -0.151
Finder of Paths Unseen 104 100.0% 32.82 100.0% -0.22 0.1842 0.718
Fractured Days Split the Sky 740 100.0% 36.17 100.0% 0.28 0.3226 0.211
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 503 100.0% 33.83 100.0% -0.111 -0.1283 -0.085
Heart of the Wildfire 2883 100.0% 28.6 100.0% -0.793 -0.464 -0.864
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2780 100.0% 34.22 100.0% 0.87 0.2361 0.093
Lightning's Swift Strike 941 133.3% 28.74 124.12% -0.763 -0.4899 -0.275
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 54 50.0% 37.96 79.63% 0.219 -0.6131 0.304
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 326 60.31% 32.29 69.02% -0.019 -0.591 0.055
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 391 59.49% 35.5 70.59% -0.182 -0.6064 0.494
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1763 100.0% 32.9 100.0% -0.636 -0.843 -0.343
Many Minds Move as One 1325 100.0% 33.12 100.0% -0.2 -0.7127 0.086
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1825 100.0% 36.01 100.0% -0.073 -0.3561 0.729
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1482 100.0% 30.9 100.0% -0.317 -0.2849 -0.146
River Surges in Sunlight 1330 111.31% 33.66 110.98% 0.104 0.1095 0.045
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 379 63.1% 30.2 63.32% 0.07 0.5142 -0.623
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 34 61.76% 39.0 79.41% 0.102 -0.141 0.014
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1854 100.0% 34.75 100.0% 0.335 0.1916 -0.308
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 603 142.22% 27.6 136.15% -0.448 0.0542 0.237
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 20 65.0% 36.65 65.0% -0.789 -0.6501 0.414
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 21 42.86% 38.33 80.95% 0.622 0.5445 0.469
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 326 58.59% 31.52 65.64% 0.008 0.0057 -0.127
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 239 57.56% 28.33 60.25% 0.121 0.1896 0.507
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1639 100.0% 35.55 100.0% 0.185 -0.0766 0.211
Shifting Memory of Ages 447 100.0% 30.17 100.0% 0.253 0.2753 -0.257
Shroud of Silent Mist 623 100.0% 28.37 100.0% -0.31 -0.0654 0.304
Starlight Seeks its Form 502 100.0% 36.95 100.0% -0.05 -0.2615 0.159
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 6443 100.0% 29.62 100.0% -0.065 -0.2342 -0.356
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1323 100.0% 31.8 100.0% 0.193 0.3039 0.144
Thunderspeaker 1282 100.0% 32.37 100.0% 0.451 0.3552 -0.45
Vital Strength of the Earth 1011 109.99% 27.25 110.39% -0.303 0.579 -0.633
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 35 74.29% 32.8 62.86% 0.183 0.584 -0.933
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 275 66.55% 29.95 66.55% 0.722 1.7641 -0.32
Volcano Looming High 1270 100.0% 30.8 100.0% -0.335 -0.35 -0.272

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 77.69%
Fiery Vengeance 74.89%
Plaguebearers 90.58%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.66%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9338 22.62 1.61%
II 20272 31.05 30.64%
III 30080 34.62 86.0%
IV 16352 37.86 99.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 150
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 25645
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6136
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 16232
Lose: Invader deck ran out 348
Lose: Adversary condition 7510
Win: Sacrifice victory 196
Lose: Scenario condition 680
Win: Scenario condition 178
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18081
Lose: Spirit destroyed 886

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.159 Win Model: -0.223

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.14 Win Model: 0.369
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 49734 81.52% 31.16 62.05%
2 15302 71.0% 29.71 64.63%
3 5757 64.5% 32.04 66.67%
4 4836 47.82% 33.95 74.57%
5 82 35.37% 31.01 82.93%
6 331 45.87% 34.97 83.38%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)