Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 263 69.47% 23.92 -3.511 57.79% -0.787 -0.2143
Dahan Insurrection 4 201 68.66% 37.24 3.717 41.29% -1.365 -0.9647
Elemental Invocation 1 36 75.0% 26.11 -1.653 58.33% -0.651 -0.1855
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1736 31.56% 38.04 3.066 67.57% -0.391 -0.0161
Powers Long Forgotten 1 101 88.12% 28.0 -0.707 52.48% -0.564 -0.1169
Rituals of Terror 3 127 75.59% 26.77 -0.513 30.71% -1.588 -0.9661
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 110 93.64% 29.65 0.626 46.36% -1.002 -0.3774
Second Wave 0 1407 61.31% 25.64 -1.961 67.45% -0.627 -0.2083
The Great River 3 36 50.0% 29.33 0.122 47.22% -1.732 -0.2472
Ward the Shores 2 133 87.22% 26.48 -1.554 30.08% -1.471 -0.4409

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 28217 80.6% 30.56 0.015 62.49% -0.377 -0.0223
1 Thematic 918 81.79% 26.82 -1.248 48.37% -0.723 -0.2261
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6138 72.55% 29.79 -0.048 64.22% -0.367 -0.178
2 Coastline 670 67.66% 28.12 -0.766 67.31% -0.377 -0.2417
2 Fragment 214 78.87% 34.09 1.467 62.15% -0.093 0.3325
2 Heart 69 66.67% 25.7 -1.245 68.12% -0.384 -0.0931
2 Opposite Shores 1406 59.71% 26.29 -1.591 67.43% -0.445 -0.2182
2 Thematic 475 72.57% 28.8 -0.234 56.21% -0.449 -0.4051
2 Top to Top 142 70.42% 28.28 -0.876 60.56% -0.531 -0.4146
3 Coastline 21 76.19% 30.9 0.521 57.14% -0.067 -0.1052
3 Other 192 62.3% 31.26 0.176 78.65% 0.003 0.4049
3 Round (Default) 2959 64.22% 31.74 0.366 66.31% -0.287 -0.2559
3 Sunrise 28 75.0% 52.46 8.654 78.57% 0.898 0.6452
3 Thematic 135 63.7% 30.52 -0.147 59.26% -0.407 -0.7463
4 Coastline 10 50.0% 41.2 5.812 90.0% 0.913 1.0353
4 Leaf 18 44.44% 38.56 2.22 77.78% 0.18 0.2597
4 Other 219 39.27% 42.11 4.167 74.89% -0.016 0.0647
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 0.974 100.0% 0.198 -0.5941
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -4.917 100.0% 0.053 0.1791
4 Thematic 522 49.14% 37.43 2.021 71.65% -0.06 -1.1379
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2198 47.66% 32.65 0.197 73.79% -0.172 -0.2042
5 Other 67 37.88% 34.33 1.113 94.03% 1.139 0.9222
5 Thematic 14 71.43% 44.29 6.305 92.86% 1.411 -1.3563

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2446 31.64 0.058 54.42% -1.16 0.9078
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1843 33.25 1.031 59.25% -0.952 0.9648
All Things Weaken 2674 29.56 -0.698 52.92% -1.305 0.855
Back Against the Wall 1810 32.22 0.47 57.35% -1.102 0.9899
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2426 29.34 -1.085 55.15% -1.182 1.0394
Downward Spiral 2676 30.2 -0.366 60.87% -0.976 1.0378
Erosion of Will 2446 30.01 -0.717 51.8% -1.318 0.8935
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 754 33.57 1.723 83.82% 0.172 0.884
Memory Fades to Dust 2600 29.04 -0.972 55.46% -1.226 0.9897
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2667 29.62 -0.666 56.84% -1.146 0.8739
Promising Farmlands 2352 29.0 -1.277 51.45% -1.338 0.8763
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 504 33.67 1.795 86.9% 0.335 0.7518
Thriving Communities 2659 28.77 -1.161 53.63% -1.278 0.8293
Tipping Point 1 8.0 -7.735 0.0% -0.592 1.6238
Unnatural Proliferation 2740 31.21 0.122 56.2% -1.178 0.9026
Untended Land Crumbles 2567 28.65 -1.172 53.72% -1.287 0.808

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5482 73.81% 29.39 -0.434 65.43% 0.231 -0.842
B 5651 73.46% 30.14 -0.193 64.87% 0.191 -0.973
C 9151 78.13% 33.14 1.025 63.23% 0.296 -1.1011
D 4823 75.9% 29.38 -0.394 64.3% 0.194 -0.9643
E 4645 73.8% 29.52 -0.341 64.26% 0.167 -1.09
F 4614 75.25% 30.24 -0.117 63.29% 0.198 -1.0278
G 4274 74.02% 30.24 -0.077 63.59% 0.181 -1.0319
H 4099 75.54% 29.92 -0.238 63.48% 0.144 -1.077
East 502 64.94% 34.33 1.37 60.56% -0.186 -1.1215
Northeast 316 77.46% 29.33 -0.281 45.57% -0.51 -1.3795
Northwest 268 72.39% 30.21 0.333 62.31% -0.14 -1.085
Southeast 279 62.95% 29.04 -0.397 59.5% -0.171 -1.154
Southwest 224 71.43% 26.72 -1.563 56.25% -0.278 -0.9033
West 306 66.99% 31.55 0.466 54.9% -0.278 -0.943

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 410 0.0% 16.44 -5.267 76.59% -1.24 0.7987
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 81.82% 16.57 -4.891 50.0% -1.117 -0.8963
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1205 30.41% 46.35 5.57 88.3% 0.992 0.2863
Start of Game Growth 1746 34.58% 41.7 3.061 85.4% 0.26 -0.199
Unlimited Undo 4678 66.73% 35.72 1.768 71.72% 0.325 -0.077
Using Tokens but Not Events 3507 62.03% 22.97 -3.289 74.68% -0.104 -0.1502

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1660 50.64% 33.79 1.301 75.3% 0.27 0.4165
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 730 65.34% 28.77 -0.97 64.11% -0.353 -0.1168
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 923 61.83% 30.97 0.252 67.71% 0.017 -0.0694
Eyes Watch From the Trees 995 53.34% 33.56 1.46 76.28% 0.399 0.0302
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1046 55.24% 30.72 -0.145 67.5% -0.175 -0.4076
Fractured Days Split the Sky 348 54.05% 37.1 2.394 70.69% 0.093 0.4266
Heart of the Wildfire 1830 69.93% 29.33 -0.971 60.87% -0.315 0.033
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1740 53.23% 33.74 1.181 75.11% 0.253 -0.0451
Lightning's Swift Strike 998 62.64% 31.23 0.076 67.23% -0.09 0.1783
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 566 66.31% 32.94 0.514 64.84% -0.054 -0.4144
Many Minds Move as One 759 58.12% 33.06 1.289 77.6% 0.451 -0.0628
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1146 60.86% 36.98 2.238 72.51% 0.305 0.1077
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 951 63.06% 30.13 -0.168 66.35% -0.092 -0.0448
River Surges in Sunlight 1089 63.25% 33.32 0.906 66.21% -0.092 0.0753
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1190 54.4% 35.39 1.259 69.92% -0.038 0.1111
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 679 60.21% 29.05 -0.697 67.01% -0.27 0.1794
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1024 53.38% 34.69 1.293 71.48% 0.142 0.078
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4614 64.2% 29.03 -0.857 65.28% -0.063 -0.0815
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 805 62.22% 31.98 0.463 67.33% 0.035 0.2501
Thunderspeaker 769 59.77% 32.57 0.706 68.53% -0.014 0.0454
Vital Strength of the Earth 765 58.82% 27.68 -1.116 68.63% -0.186 0.6785
Volcano Looming High 197 77.66% 30.17 -0.472 57.36% -0.256 -0.357

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 78.37%
Fiery Vengeance 75.74%
Plaguebearers 90.54%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.54%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5618 22.34 1.83%
II 12085 30.71 31.9%
III 17348 34.23 86.05%
IV 9583 37.48 99.7%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 103
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14794
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3809
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 9509
Lose: Invader deck ran out 194
Lose: Adversary condition 4593
Win: Sacrifice victory 102
Lose: Scenario condition 447
Win: Scenario condition 123
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10497
Lose: Spirit destroyed 463

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.253 Win Model: -0.199

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.205 Win Model: 0.007
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 29141 80.63% 30.45 62.05%
2 9172 70.24% 29.14 64.54%
3 3311 64.27% 31.88 66.69%
4 3010 47.02% 34.27 74.05%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)