Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 275 70.07% 24.04 -3.573 58.55% -0.759 -0.1827
Dahan Insurrection 4 216 69.44% 36.82 3.529 40.74% -1.417 -1.0164
Despicable Theft 2 5 60.0% 24.2 -2.711 40.0% -1.152 -0.7232
Elemental Invocation 1 60 75.0% 29.3 -0.123 71.67% -0.058 0.3235
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 1844 31.95% 38.3 3.111 68.11% -0.368 -0.0022
Powers Long Forgotten 1 107 87.85% 28.3 -0.562 54.21% -0.481 -0.039
Rituals of Terror 3 131 75.57% 26.98 -0.482 31.3% -1.581 -0.9534
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 115 93.91% 29.63 0.603 46.96% -0.984 -0.3344
Second Wave 0 1520 61.2% 25.63 -2.081 66.91% -0.66 -0.2437
The Great River 3 43 53.49% 30.28 0.464 48.84% -1.646 -0.1744
Ward the Shores 2 142 86.62% 26.14 -1.805 29.58% -1.535 -0.4985

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 30061 80.51% 30.86 0.066 62.91% -0.377 -0.0183
1 Thematic 1011 82.18% 27.0 -1.262 49.26% -0.813 -0.3095
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 6535 72.78% 29.78 -0.133 63.63% -0.38 -0.1838
2 Coastline 704 67.81% 28.13 -0.832 67.19% -0.373 -0.2301
2 Fragment 234 78.54% 33.84 1.253 63.25% -0.114 0.3081
2 Heart 77 68.83% 26.31 -1.044 68.83% -0.267 0.0257
2 Opposite Shores 1467 60.03% 26.46 -1.603 67.69% -0.424 -0.1993
2 Thematic 490 73.01% 28.85 -0.31 56.12% -0.546 -0.5017
2 Top to Top 146 70.34% 27.93 -1.059 60.96% -0.54 -0.4059
3 Coastline 22 77.27% 32.55 1.242 59.09% 0.088 0.0545
3 Other 212 61.61% 31.5 0.246 78.3% -0.021 0.3948
3 Round (Default) 3138 63.96% 31.93 0.406 66.67% -0.238 -0.1986
3 Sunrise 29 75.86% 51.28 8.041 75.86% 0.772 0.5485
3 Thematic 140 63.57% 30.75 -0.097 59.29% -0.497 -0.8534
4 Coastline 11 45.45% 40.64 5.151 90.91% 0.95 1.1078
4 Leaf 18 44.44% 38.56 2.202 77.78% 0.213 0.2406
4 Other 227 38.33% 41.97 4.078 74.89% 0.003 0.1159
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 0.984 100.0% 0.214 -0.5744
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 -4.964 100.0% 0.061 0.1852
4 Thematic 553 49.28% 37.7 2.062 72.69% -0.066 -1.1528
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2365 47.93% 32.7 0.192 74.12% -0.108 -0.1245
5 Other 71 40.0% 34.06 1.021 92.96% 1.114 0.8954
5 Thematic 14 71.43% 44.29 6.283 92.86% 1.387 -1.4404

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2619 31.71 -0.012 54.75% -1.177 0.8936
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1965 33.52 1.057 59.54% -0.967 0.9515
All Things Weaken 2851 29.84 -0.67 53.28% -1.312 0.8431
Back Against the Wall 1936 32.18 0.349 57.08% -1.149 0.9476
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2581 29.49 -1.122 55.13% -1.21 1.0141
Downward Spiral 2846 30.4 -0.381 61.24% -0.985 1.0316
Erosion of Will 2592 30.32 -0.668 52.28% -1.32 0.8896
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 810 33.32 1.541 83.83% 0.139 0.843
Memory Fades to Dust 2772 29.22 -0.975 55.92% -1.23 0.9855
Power Corrodes the Spirit 2847 29.87 -0.653 57.01% -1.163 0.8574
Promising Farmlands 2504 28.9 -1.432 51.28% -1.375 0.8374
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 534 33.91 1.828 87.27% 0.346 0.7815
Thriving Communities 2838 28.92 -1.2 53.66% -1.295 0.8029
Tipping Point 1 8.0 -7.637 0.0% -0.583 1.6353
Unnatural Proliferation 2906 31.5 0.154 56.81% -1.178 0.8998
Untended Land Crumbles 2724 28.9 -1.139 54.11% -1.288 0.8106

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 5853 74.09% 29.51 -0.471 65.33% 0.169 -0.9201
B 6042 73.58% 30.41 -0.178 65.06% 0.14 -1.0453
C 9748 77.63% 33.41 1.008 63.51% 0.229 -1.1863
D 5146 75.94% 29.46 -0.449 64.32% 0.134 -1.0426
E 4952 74.12% 29.58 -0.395 64.32% 0.108 -1.1689
F 4906 75.4% 30.42 -0.119 63.64% 0.154 -1.089
G 4535 73.95% 30.58 0.002 64.06% 0.151 -1.0798
H 4328 75.58% 30.25 -0.162 64.16% 0.125 -1.115
East 532 65.04% 34.7 1.443 61.09% -0.128 -1.0789
Northeast 338 77.15% 29.78 -0.142 46.75% -0.455 -1.3453
Northwest 296 72.64% 30.19 0.322 62.84% -0.067 -1.0323
Southeast 301 64.33% 29.21 -0.377 60.13% -0.104 -1.1052
Southwest 233 71.67% 26.96 -1.455 57.08% -0.2 -0.808
West 317 67.51% 31.74 0.496 55.21% -0.218 -0.9038

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 430 0.0% 16.72 -5.194 77.21% -1.175 0.8695
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 81.82% 16.57 -4.893 50.0% -1.113 -0.894
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1341 29.64% 47.67 5.848 88.89% 1.015 0.3114
Start of Game Growth 1897 33.87% 42.9 3.323 86.08% 0.273 -0.1815
Unlimited Undo 4958 65.86% 36.28 1.809 72.41% 0.319 -0.093
Using Tokens but Not Events 3666 62.36% 22.83 -3.468 74.39% -0.149 -0.1964

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 1730 51.08% 33.69 1.212 75.26% 0.237 0.383
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 767 65.71% 28.89 -0.941 64.54% -0.354 -0.1175
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 971 61.35% 31.05 0.218 68.07% -0.01 -0.0953
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1035 53.36% 33.58 1.438 76.52% 0.382 0.0166
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1092 55.2% 30.94 -0.096 67.95% -0.171 -0.4156
Fractured Days Split the Sky 378 55.05% 37.07 2.367 70.37% 0.095 0.4406
Heart of the Wildfire 1918 70.16% 29.34 -1.004 61.21% -0.32 0.0302
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1854 53.73% 33.8 1.156 74.76% 0.222 -0.0777
Lightning's Swift Strike 1058 62.45% 31.26 0.035 67.58% -0.109 0.1593
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 705 65.15% 32.83 0.346 65.11% -0.142 -0.4609
Many Minds Move as One 816 57.99% 32.97 1.23 77.57% 0.407 -0.1133
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1216 60.66% 36.96 2.15 72.53% 0.266 0.0715
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1000 62.42% 30.53 -0.063 66.8% -0.111 -0.0621
River Surges in Sunlight 1161 62.94% 33.32 0.856 66.41% -0.107 0.0547
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1243 55.14% 35.28 1.124 69.59% -0.091 0.0585
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 722 59.94% 29.1 -0.728 67.31% -0.288 0.1619
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1102 53.59% 34.75 1.228 71.23% 0.09 0.0224
Shroud of Silent Mist 20 75.0% 34.35 2.003 70.0% 0.295 0.2506
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 4790 64.24% 29.11 -0.865 65.28% -0.081 -0.1001
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 851 61.39% 32.24 0.525 67.92% 0.03 0.246
Thunderspeaker 806 59.25% 32.69 0.748 68.98% -0.024 0.0336
Vital Strength of the Earth 836 59.04% 27.79 -1.149 68.78% -0.204 0.6669
Volcano Looming High 333 73.49% 31.76 0.174 62.46% -0.045 -0.1067

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 78.37%
Fiery Vengeance 75.48%
Plaguebearers 90.62%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.59%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5896 22.34 1.81%
II 12824 30.75 31.89%
III 18587 34.26 86.19%
IV 10220 37.47 99.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 107
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15878
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4040
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10136
Lose: Invader deck ran out 204
Lose: Adversary condition 4816
Win: Sacrifice victory 112
Lose: Scenario condition 473
Win: Scenario condition 130
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11131
Lose: Spirit destroyed 500

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.297 Win Model: -0.194

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.192 Win Model: 0.004
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 31080 80.56% 30.73 62.46%
2 9711 70.52% 29.18 64.22%
3 3515 64.0% 32.06 67.0%
4 3221 47.23% 34.3 74.45%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)