Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 46.15% 31.08 92.31% 0.226 -0.2208 0.0
Blitz 0 425 67.3% 25.9 60.47% -0.106 0.3512 -1.088
Dahan Insurrection 4 285 69.12% 37.48 44.21% -0.354 -0.334 -0.677
Despicable Theft 2 64 81.25% 30.55 64.06% -0.601 -0.0889 0.255
Elemental Invocation 1 197 79.19% 29.73 68.02% -0.325 0.3737 -0.989
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2849 33.59% 40.11 69.6% -0.014 0.0275 0.485
Powers Long Forgotten 1 151 84.77% 27.42 52.32% -0.884 -0.3226 -1.058
Rituals of Terror 3 178 75.28% 27.83 30.9% -1.581 -1.8691 -1.809
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 194 92.27% 30.76 52.58% 0.189 0.6191 -0.843
Second Wave 0 2833 59.02% 25.41 67.81% -0.553 -0.0914 -0.22
The Great River 3 117 63.25% 28.55 43.59% -0.937 0.8296 -0.49
Varied Terrains 2 43 72.09% 23.6 51.16% -0.512 0.3162 -0.87
Ward the Shores 2 209 85.65% 25.38 28.71% -0.352 0.3921 -2.024

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 50145 81.51% 31.32 62.36% 0.014 0.564 0.4
1 Thematic 1973 80.61% 28.57 60.67% 0.458 1.4562 -0.338
2 Archipelago 27 74.07% 34.96 66.67% -0.425 0.1925 0.172
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10741 72.94% 30.18 64.03% 0.084 0.4944 0.049
2 Coastline 1196 66.39% 28.97 68.73% 0.155 0.291 0.429
2 Fragment 423 80.57% 36.99 65.25% 0.535 0.5303 0.744
2 Heart 194 75.77% 29.27 58.76% 0.667 1.1417 0.212
2 Opposite Shores 2249 61.34% 27.31 68.56% 0.009 0.3627 -0.622
2 Thematic 780 72.33% 29.14 55.77% -1.426 -0.4961 -1.236
2 Top to Top 321 76.18% 32.07 61.99% -0.1 0.0264 -0.253
3 Archipelago 13 53.85% 39.15 92.31% 0.352 0.5311 -0.438
3 Coastline 32 68.75% 31.31 68.75% 0.272 -0.1449 -0.523
3 Other 307 59.21% 30.92 77.2% 0.263 -0.4564 0.959
3 Round (Default) 5502 64.87% 32.13 66.38% 0.203 0.3965 -0.078
3 Sunrise 38 71.05% 46.89 76.32% -0.533 -0.3842 0.87
3 Thematic 208 64.9% 31.12 61.06% 1.156 1.1707 0.184
4 Archipelago 9 44.44% 39.78 77.78% -1.011 -1.4306 -0.512
4 Coastline 41 29.27% 30.46 87.8% -0.129 -0.2014 0.223
4 Leaf 28 50.0% 34.18 64.29% 0.0 -0.0965 -0.984
4 Other 303 40.59% 39.61 75.25% 0.48 -0.1363 -0.382
4 Reverse Snake 1 100.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.0
4 Snake 1 100.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.0 0.5654 0.0
4 Thematic 789 48.09% 37.13 74.14% -0.205 0.0776 -1.203
4 Trapezoid (Default) 3787 48.59% 32.8 73.96% -0.285 -0.097 -0.173
5 Archipelago 7 85.71% 36.71 71.43% 0.174 -0.2097 -0.246
5 Coastline 8 12.5% 28.25 100.0% 0.0 0.1073 0.0
5 Other 183 46.15% 32.61 84.15% 0.441 -0.19 0.137
5 Thematic 23 60.87% 37.3 82.61% 0.0 -0.9744 0.89
6 Archipelago 6 33.33% 39.0 83.33% 0.031 -0.0394 0.0
6 Other 56 45.45% 29.57 78.57% 0.181 -0.0612 -0.11
6 Star 26 53.85% 34.65 73.08% 0.0 0.5458 -0.669
6 Thematic 118 50.0% 36.59 83.05% -0.085 -0.0387 1.487
6 Two Centers (Default) 214 39.15% 36.61 83.64% -0.65 -0.1865 0.277
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.221 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 7 66.67% 35.57 100.0% 0.082 -0.2788 0.662

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 4405 32.36 55.23% -1.047 0.683 0.216
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3320 34.19 59.85% -0.656 0.9199 0.64
All Things Weaken 4829 30.14 53.08% -0.968 0.9095 0.219
Attenuated Essence 2 34.5 50.0% -0.34 0.5142 -0.305
Back Against the Wall 3310 33.17 57.52% -0.473 1.1638 0.551
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4394 29.99 55.26% -0.659 1.1843 0.269
Downward Spiral 4820 30.88 60.77% -0.778 0.9199 0.37
Erosion of Will 4329 30.69 52.78% -0.772 1.1283 0.058
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 1376 33.73 82.85% -0.087 0.4131 0.818
Memory Fades to Dust 4664 29.88 56.65% -0.704 1.1723 0.265
Power Corrodes the Spirit 4859 30.18 56.58% -0.792 0.9126 0.201
Promising Farmlands 4237 29.64 52.3% -1.024 0.852 0.07
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 62.0 100.0% 0.289 1.7597 0.26
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 891 34.44 86.87% 0.7 0.9105 0.974
Thriving Communities 4796 29.68 55.17% -0.998 0.8729 0.171
Tipping Point 1 8.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 4883 31.85 56.09% -0.895 0.859 0.308
Untended Land Crumbles 4643 29.67 54.49% -0.916 0.8982 0.285

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 15760 69.87% 30.8 66.17% 0.204 0.9818 -0.024
B 15834 69.71% 31.22 65.76% -0.265 0.4383 0.056
C 21507 72.88% 32.97 64.79% 0.013 0.5411 -0.073
D 14184 70.9% 30.31 65.89% 0.097 0.8316 -0.004
E 13587 69.57% 31.03 66.06% -0.317 0.2666 -0.01
F 13263 70.31% 31.36 66.7% -0.041 0.6664 0.081
G 12271 70.51% 31.63 66.03% 0.232 0.8738 0.12
H 11653 69.95% 31.09 66.22% -0.075 0.5705 0.165
East 2743 66.31% 31.99 65.29% -0.11 0.4813 0.13
Northeast 1318 63.46% 33.26 63.13% -0.123 0.5542 -1.047
Northwest 1172 63.58% 34.52 69.2% 1.169 1.6065 -0.039
Southeast 1185 62.07% 31.25 72.66% -0.87 -0.2065 0.016
Southwest 885 59.86% 31.5 67.8% 0.841 2.0127 -0.014
West 2340 65.04% 32.54 64.36% 0.16 0.9776 0.089

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 827 0.0% 17.0 78.96% 0.132 2.2073 -0.564
Not Using Events or Tokens 25 90.0% 18.96 52.0% 0.0 0.1716 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2129 29.72% 47.19 89.62% 1.117 0.058 2.355
Start of Game Growth 2923 34.08% 43.1 87.34% 0.357 -0.0657 0.651
Unlimited Undo 8079 65.79% 36.47 72.74% 0.381 -0.0339 0.291
Using Tokens but Not Events 5848 63.71% 22.76 73.92% -0.117 -0.0013 -1.08

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 2730 100.0% 33.68 100.0% -0.185 -0.3643 0.186
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1145 100.0% 29.55 100.0% 0.08 0.0942 -0.209
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1555 100.0% 31.81 100.0% 0.594 0.349 0.066
Downpour Drenches the World 231 100.0% 38.97 100.0% -0.077 0.3104 0.709
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 3 100.0% 27.67 100.0% -0.797 -0.5619 0.26
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1626 100.0% 33.6 100.0% 0.368 -0.1057 0.319
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 1683 100.0% 31.37 100.0% 0.479 0.0327 -0.192
Finder of Paths Unseen 167 100.0% 34.33 100.0% -0.305 0.0584 0.624
Fractured Days Split the Sky 779 100.0% 36.15 100.0% -0.259 -0.1553 0.063
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 580 100.0% 34.32 100.0% 0.569 0.505 -0.024
Heart of the Wildfire 3018 100.0% 28.56 100.0% -0.457 -0.1981 -0.885
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 2887 100.0% 34.45 100.0% 0.564 -0.0191 0.096
Lightning's Swift Strike 967 134.26% 28.67 125.13% -0.106 0.1614 -0.32
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 80 58.75% 38.66 76.25% 0.379 -0.4356 0.544
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 342 61.0% 32.34 69.3% 0.446 -0.0961 0.015
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 413 59.71% 35.94 71.19% 0.299 -0.1786 0.506
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1887 100.0% 33.05 100.0% -0.056 -0.1773 -0.373
Many Minds Move as One 1390 100.0% 33.23 100.0% 0.341 -0.2817 0.069
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1913 100.0% 35.92 100.0% -0.039 -0.1663 0.668
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1559 100.0% 31.03 100.0% 0.324 0.2405 -0.188
River Surges in Sunlight 1367 113.05% 33.59 111.85% 0.184 -0.0076 0.029
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 402 61.46% 29.98 63.68% -0.637 -0.349 -0.683
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 60 56.67% 37.58 73.33% -0.073 -0.4359 0.025
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1943 100.0% 34.65 100.0% -0.425 -0.5986 -0.335
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 615 143.18% 27.66 137.24% -0.088 0.3052 0.19
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 27 62.96% 33.85 62.96% 0.032 0.1288 0.241
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 27 44.44% 38.7 81.48% -0.299 -0.2242 0.667
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 340 59.12% 31.61 66.18% 0.273 0.2365 -0.188
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 244 58.02% 28.07 59.43% -0.949 -0.9458 0.469
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 1720 100.0% 35.58 100.0% -0.308 -0.5079 0.156
Shifting Memory of Ages 493 100.0% 30.5 100.0% 0.091 0.3199 -0.249
Shroud of Silent Mist 690 100.0% 28.53 100.0% -0.217 -0.0332 0.158
Starlight Seeks its Form 646 100.0% 37.15 100.0% 0.149 -0.0077 0.147
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 6621 100.0% 29.69 100.0% 0.137 -0.126 -0.405
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 1364 100.0% 31.92 100.0% 0.297 0.3598 0.093
Thunderspeaker 1363 100.0% 32.59 100.0% -0.046 -0.1223 -0.4
Vital Strength of the Earth 1040 111.06% 27.12 111.54% 0.091 0.8443 -0.691
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 62 72.58% 35.76 62.9% 0.411 0.9889 -0.13
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 286 65.73% 29.75 66.08% -0.948 0.2023 -0.429
Volcano Looming High 1378 100.0% 30.88 100.0% 0.175 0.1714 -0.308

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Fetid Breath Spreads Infection 77.49%
Fiery Vengeance 74.81%
Plaguebearers 90.54%
Strike Low With Sudden Fevers 97.65%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 9768 22.63 1.61%
II 21172 31.12 30.74%
III 31648 34.7 86.1%
IV 17185 37.97 99.73%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 157
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 27013
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6429
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 17060
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 20
Lose: Invader deck ran out 363
Lose: Adversary condition 7840
Win: Sacrifice victory 209
Lose: Scenario condition 705
Win: Scenario condition 185
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18867
Lose: Spirit destroyed 925

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.397 Win Model: -0.193

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.185 Win Model: 0.067
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 52200 81.47% 31.22 62.28%
2 15987 71.0% 29.87 64.68%
3 6053 64.53% 32.14 66.81%
4 5005 47.81% 33.9 74.37%
5 105 41.9% 30.93 84.76%
6 423 43.88% 35.49 82.03%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)