Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 31 70.97% 32.9 0.775 58.06% -0.084 0.2857
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 12 58.33% 40.5 3.23 75.0% -0.059 0.2845
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 18 61.11% 22.94 2.112 11.11% -1.009 -0.0276
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 2 100.0% 46.5 -0.331 50.0% -0.32 1.0554
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 23 60.87% 48.26 14.167 43.48% 0.227 2.5167
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 26 42.31% 31.58 1.678 73.08% 0.402 0.2838
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 45 68.89% 31.24 0.646 62.22% -0.029 -0.1824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 27 62.96% 48.11 6.834 85.19% 0.386 0.4948
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 9 77.78% 46.33 4.719 66.67% 0.06 0.4601
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 4 50.0% 50.75 6.628 75.0% -0.281 0.0264
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 73.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 6 83.33% 52.0 1.789 33.33% -0.551 0.9155
The Kingdom of England 0 1 35 54.29% 26.89 -1.251 54.29% -0.552 -0.1914
The Kingdom of England 1 3 23 65.22% 34.87 1.907 65.22% 0.128 0.6847
The Kingdom of England 2 4 12 83.33% 22.08 -3.352 16.67% -0.858 0.1758
The Kingdom of England 3 6 5 100.0% 21.0 -3.073 0.0% -0.643 0.8502
The Kingdom of England 4 7 2 50.0% 50.0 19.354 50.0% 0.332 1.738
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 22.0 -5.939 0.0% -0.209 1.8621
The Kingdom of England 6 11 12 83.33% 41.92 4.411 25.0% -1.04 1.2711
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 12 83.33% 35.67 4.201 66.67% -0.019 0.5633
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 14 64.29% 28.79 -3.664 35.71% -0.982 0.0856
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 69.23% 37.23 0.0 38.46%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 11 36.36% 29.64 -4.396 9.09% -1.493 0.6389
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 46.0 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 51.13 0.0 37.5%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 43 65.12% 29.91 -2.935 62.79% -0.209 -0.2949
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 17 58.82% 36.71 3.837 70.59% -0.183 0.711
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 26 80.77% 32.92 -4.196 46.15% -0.446 0.5518
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 13 76.92% 45.46 -2.564 53.85% -0.588 0.0971
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 85.71% 45.0 6.035 42.86% -0.322 0.6684
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 6 50.0% 39.83 -3.095 33.33% -1.07 0.204
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 12 83.33% 53.42 0.976 41.67% -0.503 1.1452
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 27 55.56% 31.3 1.367 81.48% 0.85 0.9376
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 15 73.33% 38.73 3.471 86.67% 0.43 0.4666
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 18 61.11% 39.33 1.9 72.22% -0.268 -0.0274
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 10 80.0% 38.9 1.823 50.0% -0.379 0.0185
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 44.25 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 27 85.19% 37.7 4.096 29.63% -0.663 0.4035
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 29 48.28% 34.1 -0.915 68.97% -0.186 -0.5385
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 16 56.25% 34.13 1.772 50.0% -0.411 0.3582
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 91.67% 37.17 0.0 58.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 61.0 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 3 100.0% 43.0 2.089 0.0% -0.28 1.6984

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 705 52.06 32.02 71.77% 0.761 1.3111 -0.263
1 Thematic 58 74.14 35.03 53.45% -0.283 0.7146 -0.013
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 28.33 33.33%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 138 57.97 34.85 75.36% 0.16 0.5702 -0.122
2 Coastline 26 61.54 34.85 73.08% 0.202 0.3376 0.255
2 Fragment 4 100.0 33.5 100.0%
2 Heart 6 83.33 19.67 16.67%
2 Opposite Shores 42 54.76 29.29 69.05% -0.873 -0.5193 -0.257
2 Thematic 27 77.78 35.11 62.96% 0.108 1.0374 0.545
2 Top to Top 4 50.0 39.0 75.0% -0.32 -0.1932 -0.19
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 59.0 100.0%
3 Other 1 0.0 42.0 100.0% 0.073 -0.6457 0.239
3 Round (Default) 84 48.81 33.0 73.81% 0.419 0.6131 0.163
3 Sunrise 1 0.0 13.0 0.0%
3 Thematic 3 33.33 38.33 33.33% -0.313
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 41.0 100.0%
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0% 0.219 0.1464
4 Thematic 7 28.57 36.43 28.57% -0.492 -0.2088 -0.287
4 Trapezoid (Default) 13 38.46 29.69 61.54% -0.26 -0.0723
5 Other 3 66.67 32.67 100.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 29.5 100.0%
6 Thematic 6 66.67 38.83 50.0% 0.308 0.3535 0.096
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 50.0 32.25 62.5%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 43 26.84 51.16% -0.935 0.7959 -1.19
Aid From Lesser Spirits 38 35.71 57.89% 0.139 1.7149 -1.08
All Things Weaken 49 24.08 44.9% -0.628 1.2494 -0.559
Back Against the Wall 34 36.15 70.59% -0.597 1.0399 0.878
Disintegrating Ecosystem 43 29.47 65.12% -0.713 1.1299 0.054
Downward Spiral 43 31.84 67.44% -0.028 1.6704 0.343
Erosion of Will 41 24.15 26.83% -1.81 0.0898 -0.434
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 24 37.96 95.83% 0.323 0.823
Memory Fades to Dust 51 23.71 39.22% -1.18 0.6958 -0.271
Power Corrodes the Spirit 46 27.89 50.0% -0.203 1.5018 -0.156
Promising Farmlands 50 27.1 48.0% -1.199 0.6763 -0.193
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 12.0 0.0% -0.52 0.6359
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 14 31.86 78.57% 0.391 0.6008 -0.338
Thriving Communities 52 26.17 53.85% -0.829 1.0419 -0.628
Unnatural Proliferation 40 30.95 60.0% -0.448 1.3063 0.465
Untended Land Crumbles 56 27.59 42.86% -1.13 0.6841 0.276

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 216 53.24% 30.15 68.06% -0.218 0.5596 -0.823
B 202 47.52% 32.56 69.31% 0.136 0.8389 -0.006
C 252 50.4% 33.08 76.19% 0.787 1.3147 0.957
D 185 56.22% 31.38 67.03% -0.1 0.6353 -0.23
E 208 55.77% 33.92 75.96% -0.436 0.1481 -0.033
F 173 53.18% 32.84 69.94% 0.044 0.751 0.282
G 163 50.31% 33.83 77.3% 0.354 0.9962 0.48
H 161 56.52% 32.43 75.16% -0.153 0.4923 0.22
East 76 72.37% 37.36 59.21% -0.224 0.3674 -0.76
Northeast 44 61.36% 38.68 61.36% 1.152 1.8286 -0.047
Northwest 29 51.72% 39.0 51.72% 0.08 0.5179 0.219
Southeast 27 85.19% 35.33 51.85% -0.354 0.3097 0.738
Southwest 17 76.47% 32.94 47.06% -0.221 0.9504 0.013
West 53 64.15% 33.51 43.4% -0.621 0.1971 -0.596

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 57.14% 31.29 85.71%
Skip Initial Invader Actions 35 25.71% 52.26 94.29% 0.54 -0.5191 1.005
Start of Game Growth 44 34.09% 51.18 90.91% 0.54 0.1178 0.495
Unlimited Undo 74 52.7% 35.69 70.27% -0.242 -0.6578 0.004
Using Tokens but Not Events 124 46.77% 30.29 74.19% 0.276 0.392 -0.102

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 195 22.63 18.97%
II 414 31.12 67.15%
III 343 34.7 86.88%
IV 194 37.97 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.057 Win Model: 0.224
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 773 54.2% 32.3 69.99%
2 243 60.49% 33.73 72.02%
3 87 45.98% 32.51 73.56%
4 24 41.67% 32.29 58.33%
5 2 50.0% 29.5 100.0%
6 17 47.06% 34.35 64.71%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 37
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 296
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 276
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 193
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 93
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Blight pool ran out 227
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)