Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 42 61.9% 26.55 -4.516 47.62% -0.991 -0.7807
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 23 43.48% 29.0 -0.534 52.17% -0.557 -0.1225
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 25 52.0% 17.6 -2.397 8.0% -0.474 0.2583
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 16.67% 19.42 -2.203 16.67% -1.129 -0.0707
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 5 80.0% 35.6 -0.211 40.0% -0.952 0.3418
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 24 58.33% 49.33 27.299 45.83% 0.329 2.2693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 43 34.88% 29.93 2.58 69.77% 0.532 0.6298
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 55 61.82% 29.38 -0.842 60.0% -0.269 -0.3607
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 41 56.1% 45.17 8.289 80.49% 0.563 0.5002
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 10 80.0% 47.2 16.11 70.0% 0.309 0.5703
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 15 80.0% 43.27 7.33 60.0% -0.435 -0.3716
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 73.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 7 71.43% 44.57 -6.288 28.57% -0.164 1.1184
The Kingdom of England 0 1 49 44.9% 22.0 -3.06 42.86% -1.17 -0.9948
The Kingdom of England 1 3 26 57.69% 33.19 2.717 61.54% -0.115 0.0988
The Kingdom of England 2 4 14 78.57% 20.29 -1.146 14.29% -0.277 0.4761
The Kingdom of England 3 6 8 62.5% 13.13 -9.376 0.0% -1.089 0.072
The Kingdom of England 4 7 6 50.0% 41.0 9.971 50.0% 0.429 1.4434
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 100.0% 24.0 -3.913 0.0% -1.059 0.4835
The Kingdom of England 6 11 86 53.49% 16.98 -4.79 3.49% -3.456 -1.4367
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 15 66.67% 28.53 -2.573 53.33% -0.685 -0.3315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 20 50.0% 23.2 -4.134 30.0% -0.738 0.231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 16 68.75% 36.69 0.208 37.5% -0.593 0.4953
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 25 36.0% 26.76 -0.376 12.0% -1.813 -0.4254
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 75.0% 40.25 -11.629 37.5% -0.577 0.856
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 30.0 4.087 0.0% -0.202 0.7705
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 47.6 2.278 30.0% -0.841 0.5148
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 49 61.22% 29.88 0.903 63.27% -0.282 -0.3687
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 28 46.43% 33.54 0.632 64.29% -0.54 -0.1067
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 46 67.39% 28.74 0.051 39.13% -0.506 -0.1016
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 17 64.71% 41.94 1.076 52.94% -0.595 -0.2629
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 85.71% 45.0 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 13 53.85% 32.62 2.071 30.77% -0.502 0.2383
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 44 56.82% 26.43 -1.419 22.73% -1.192 0.0855
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 41 43.9% 25.73 -3.297 68.29% -0.47 -0.3203
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 25 48.0% 32.4 0.152 72.0% -0.211 -0.2211
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 30 43.33% 28.37 -3.345 53.33% -0.962 -0.7299
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 14 78.57% 35.64 3.173 50.0% -0.356 -0.0101
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 44.25 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 4 75.0% 12.5 -6.775 0.0% -1.076 -0.1284
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 38 86.84% 34.84 1.292 28.95% -0.747 0.0583
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 40 50.0% 31.1 1.226 67.5% 0.242 0.2839
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 22 54.55% 27.73 -5.84 40.91% -1.171 -0.567
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 15 80.0% 30.93 -7.327 46.67% -0.806 -0.5131
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 5 60.0% 39.0 0.799 60.0% -0.223 0.8832
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 6 33.33% 26.5 -0.177 33.33% -0.325 0.7055
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 8 62.5% 69.13 19.117 50.0% -0.169 1.7874

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1020 47.84 28.29 62.16% 0.502 0.7115 -0.471
1 Thematic 85 67.06 29.26 42.35% -0.998 -0.399 -0.467
2 Archipelago 5 60.0 17.0 20.0% -0.727 -0.3703 -0.314
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 204 52.45 29.96 64.22% -0.201 -0.0408 -0.355
2 Coastline 41 46.34 29.88 60.98% -0.568 -0.5072 0.639
2 Fragment 7 71.43 37.29 100.0% 0.629 0.5655 0.518
2 Heart 9 77.78 26.44 33.33% 0.168 -0.0698 -0.175
2 Opposite Shores 64 46.88 30.78 60.94% -0.394 -0.26 -0.469
2 Thematic 39 64.1 31.46 56.41% 0.046 0.682 0.529
2 Top to Top 10 60.0 46.8 90.0% 0.591 0.6313 0.08
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 59.0 100.0%
3 Other 1 0.0 42.0 100.0% 0.352 0.4615 0.345
3 Round (Default) 108 45.37 31.88 73.15% 0.247 0.2054 0.292
3 Sunrise 1 0.0 13.0 0.0%
3 Thematic 7 57.14 38.29 57.14% 0.31 0.3463 0.037
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 42.5 100.0% 0.031 -0.1832
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0% 0.4 0.5222
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0% 0.144 -0.2314
4 Thematic 10 40.0 37.6 50.0% 0.457 0.4394 -0.131
4 Trapezoid (Default) 31 41.94 29.61 70.97% -0.125 -0.3113 -0.092
5 Other 5 40.0 26.8 80.0% -0.724 -1.2322
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 29.5 100.0%
6 Thematic 8 62.5 35.13 50.0% -0.535 -0.1366 -0.053
6 Two Centers (Default) 9 55.56 28.67 55.56% -0.409 -0.3651
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.164 -0.9372 -0.161

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 56 27.16 48.21% 0.018 0.2891 -0.372
Aid From Lesser Spirits 49 35.43 61.22% 1.033 1.0719 -0.867
All Things Weaken 61 24.74 44.26% 0.039 0.5001 -0.312
Attenuated Essence 10 35.8 70.0% 0.285 0.4909 -0.34
Back Against the Wall 40 35.48 65.0% 0.047 0.2089 1.056
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 5 26.0 40.0% -0.124 0.2904 -0.192
Burn Brightest Before the End 6 30.17 50.0% 0.008 0.3131 -0.157
Disintegrating Ecosystem 54 27.91 57.41% -1.213 -0.686 0.148
Downward Spiral 56 29.05 58.93% -0.099 0.2535 0.343
Erosion of Will 56 23.27 26.79% -0.876 -0.4681 -0.466
Intensifying Exploitation 6 20.5 33.33% -0.607 -0.2196 0.566
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 31 38.77 93.55% 1.608 1.0827 0.496
Memory Fades to Dust 65 23.43 38.46% -0.979 -0.4973 -0.098
Power Corrodes the Spirit 55 27.45 47.27% 0.275 0.5792 0.086
Promising Farmlands 65 27.0 44.62% -0.325 0.2612 0.498
Shattered Fragments of Power 6 30.17 50.0% -0.192 -0.0128
Slow Dissolution of Will 8 15.75 50.0% -0.229 0.3051 -0.098
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 31.6 73.33% -0.06 -0.7379 -0.545
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.409 -0.5382
Thriving Communities 63 28.92 55.56% 0.611 1.1043 0.064
Thriving Crops 1 0.0 0.0% -0.028 0.0605 -0.038
Unnatural Proliferation 49 30.51 59.18% 0.138 0.4348 0.576
Untended Land Crumbles 73 27.41 45.21% 0.103 0.4607 0.434

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 300 46.33% 27.84 63.33% -0.143 0.6966 -0.827
B 308 41.88% 29.88 61.69% -0.074 0.7052 0.124
C 380 46.32% 29.26 63.95% -0.415 0.239 0.335
D 269 53.9% 27.65 57.25% -0.287 0.5119 -0.633
E 304 48.68% 29.7 64.47% -0.673 -0.0446 -0.051
F 254 49.61% 30.06 67.32% 0.45 1.1693 0.625
G 238 48.74% 31.32 72.69% 0.024 0.7653 0.34
H 227 50.66% 31.49 72.25% 0.079 0.7274 0.783
East 105 65.71% 34.85 57.14% 0.372 0.9764 -0.718
Northeast 62 54.84% 35.23 58.06% -0.11 0.7705 -0.411
Northwest 44 52.27% 34.73 52.27% -0.03 0.6426 0.284
Southeast 34 82.35% 32.97 50.0% -0.195 0.4415 1.196
Southwest 29 65.52% 26.24 37.93% -0.838 0.3262 -0.023
West 84 60.71% 29.38 41.67% -0.561 0.4036 -0.47

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 8 50.0% 27.38 75.0% -0.346 -0.0136
Skip Initial Invader Actions 45 28.89% 55.0 91.11% 1.173 0.6382 1.486
Start of Game Growth 56 35.71% 51.75 85.71% -0.029 -0.3598 0.912
Unlimited Undo 151 42.38% 24.62 46.36% -0.966 -0.9881 -0.67
Using Tokens but Not Events 168 40.48% 27.52 68.45% -0.408 -0.4617 0.149

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 449 21.03 10.02%
II 537 31.04 67.78%
III 445 34.74 87.19%
IV 243 38.02 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.531 Win Model: 0.573
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1122 49.64% 28.33 60.16%
2 368 52.72% 31.0 63.86%
3 113 43.36% 31.48 72.57%
4 46 43.48% 33.02 71.74%
5 4 25.0% 23.75 75.0%
6 21 47.62% 30.1 57.14%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 45
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 386
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 361
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 242
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 199
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 124
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Blight pool ran out 289
Lose: Spirit destroyed 18

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)