Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 78 55.13% 22.04 -0.424 41.03% -0.073 0.3074
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 56 44.64% 23.39 0.577 44.64% -0.465 -0.1872
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 58.14% 16.14 -8.418 11.63% -1.227 -0.4677
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 19 26.32% 19.21 -9.586 15.79% -0.638 0.4815
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 61.54% 26.62 -0.551 30.77% -0.304 1.0529
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 31 48.39% 46.26 7.03 45.16% 0.073 2.0215
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 105 37.14% 21.26 -0.035 48.57% -0.489 -0.2824
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 107 54.21% 22.31 -1.436 43.93% -0.75 -0.7401
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 68 52.94% 38.57 -2.23 66.18% -0.761 -0.7335
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 43 62.79% 29.23 -7.108 34.88% -1.049 -0.7618
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 32 65.63% 37.59 -0.35 53.13% -0.457 -0.1596
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 83.33% 41.0 -5.168 33.33% -0.806 -0.2035
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 60.0% 38.67 0.0 26.67%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 90 34.44% 18.4 -4.372 36.67% -1.224 -0.9003
The Kingdom of England 1 3 46 45.65% 22.28 -3.447 39.13% -0.572 -0.2773
The Kingdom of England 2 4 30 63.33% 14.57 -9.055 10.0% -0.72 0.0037
The Kingdom of England 3 6 25 56.0% 14.96 -1.408 8.0% -1.144 0.0916
The Kingdom of England 4 7 23 30.43% 19.91 -6.381 21.74% -1.179 0.0014
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 100.0% 24.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 102 55.88% 16.56 0.0 2.94%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 51 43.14% 15.14 -3.995 27.45% -1.19 -0.7084
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 53 47.17% 16.57 -0.207 20.75% -0.205 0.6315
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 39 51.28% 25.85 5.976 25.64% -0.25 0.7804
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 34 38.24% 25.09 -4.559 11.76% -0.946 0.4591
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 15 53.33% 30.33 0.451 26.67% -0.789 0.6321
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 29.0 5.691 0.0% -0.079 0.7679
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 23 47.83% 48.91 0.0 30.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 98 43.88% 21.44 -2.311 44.9% -0.652 -0.3662
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 69 40.58% 21.46 0.84 36.23% 0.026 0.5061
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 67 56.72% 25.88 2.075 37.31% -0.385 -0.1078
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 39 51.28% 27.82 -8.07 33.33% -1.451 -1.0396
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 32 56.25% 30.72 -4.38 18.75% -1.05 -0.1642
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 24 58.33% 39.42 -9.518 45.83% -0.62 0.1896
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 75 56.0% 28.69 -7.879 24.0% -0.308 0.712
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 91 30.77% 17.38 -5.332 45.05% -1.185 -1.0358
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 85 35.29% 19.61 -1.501 38.82% -0.93 -0.8029
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 61 39.34% 19.46 -2.075 36.07% -0.387 -0.1885
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 28 64.29% 25.79 2.173 35.71% -0.546 -0.1284
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 75.0% 24.33 -1.762 33.33% -0.895 -0.1909
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 13 76.92% 11.77 2.578 7.69% -0.503 0.4319
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 56 69.64% 29.32 -7.504 26.79% -1.108 -0.1179
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 97 42.27% 24.57 0.728 51.55% -0.205 -0.1057
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 45 42.22% 22.18 -4.9 37.78% -1.044 -0.0956
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 35 65.71% 24.89 -1.449 37.14% -0.69 -0.4094
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 13 38.46% 19.92 -0.488 30.77% -0.246 0.8644
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 31.25% 16.63 -12.025 18.75% -0.526 0.4827
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 0.0 -9.242 0.0% -0.355 1.3114
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 37.5% 75.0 24.571 62.5% 0.3 2.1089

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1868 43.6 24.1 53.43% 0.874 1.0653 -0.535
1 Thematic 215 46.05 21.68 35.35% 0.817 1.4623 -0.796
2 Archipelago 9 55.56 26.44 22.22% -0.573 -0.141 -0.259
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 373 47.99 25.53 52.82% -0.383 -0.387 -0.0
2 Coastline 63 34.92 21.89 46.03% -1.056 -1.0003 0.533
2 Fragment 20 65.0 28.95 60.0% -0.49 -0.7567 -0.037
2 Heart 11 63.64 27.36 36.36% -0.258 -0.2967 0.374
2 Opposite Shores 128 44.53 31.5 61.72% 0.643 0.6575 -0.009
2 Thematic 108 40.74 18.06 33.33% 0.299 0.4964 0.363
2 Top to Top 20 55.0 43.4 80.0% -0.486 -0.5842 0.46
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 29.5 50.0%
3 Other 8 50.0 51.63 87.5% 0.282 -0.1109 0.56
3 Round (Default) 229 45.85 27.32 61.14% 0.259 -0.0764 -0.217
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 20.0 50.0%
3 Thematic 15 73.33 31.13 40.0% -0.145 -0.429 0.041
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0% 0.227 0.0703
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0%
4 Other 2 50.0 15.0 50.0% -0.497 -1.8269 0.118
4 Thematic 19 52.63 29.89 31.58% -0.3 -0.3799 -0.201
4 Trapezoid (Default) 66 39.39 26.38 68.18% 0.413 0.2561 0.116
5 Other 9 33.33 14.89 44.44% 0.26 -0.8142
6 Other 2 50.0 30.5 100.0% 0.127 -0.0761
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 22 50.0 26.23 40.91% -0.033 0.6154 -0.071
6 Two Centers (Default) 11 45.45 26.55 54.55% -0.193
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.271

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 86 24.19 41.86% -0.744 -0.6148 -0.304
Aid From Lesser Spirits 86 30.29 51.16% 0.032 -0.0868 -0.923
All Things Weaken 97 23.58 40.21% -0.125 0.1829 -0.328
Attenuated Essence 31 24.9 48.39% 0.272 0.304 -0.302
Back Against the Wall 74 31.7 58.11% 0.355 0.3853 0.881
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 26 24.5 42.31% 0.226 0.4125 0.327
Burn Brightest Before the End 20 24.3 40.0% -0.114 -0.0437 -0.242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 77 25.64 51.95% -0.379 -0.0028 0.329
Downward Spiral 84 28.92 57.14% 1.201 1.3665 0.66
Erosion of Will 95 22.48 28.42% -0.192 0.0227 -0.537
Intensifying Exploitation 38 25.92 50.0% 0.95 1.1915 1.318
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 33.98 78.05% 0.132 -0.4493 0.189
Memory Fades to Dust 98 23.32 43.88% 0.618 0.9108 -0.444
Power Corrodes the Spirit 87 26.69 50.57% 1.117 1.2784 0.402
Promising Farmlands 102 24.89 41.18% -0.546 -0.2495 0.618
Shattered Fragments of Power 20 24.4 40.0% 0.255 0.3434 0.336
Slow Dissolution of Will 24 20.96 45.83% -0.62 -0.2272 0.294
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 29.12 69.23% 0.409 -0.303 -0.367
The Border of Life and Death 9 12.11 22.22% 0.614 0.1348 -0.114
Thriving Communities 104 24.81 48.08% 0.32 0.6196 -0.34
Thriving Crops 13 24.69 53.85% -0.398 -0.5001 -0.132
Unnatural Proliferation 82 29.13 56.1% 0.967 1.1366 1.114
Untended Land Crumbles 116 25.39 45.69% 0.178 0.436 0.466

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 592 42.06% 24.23 55.41% 0.016 1.1583 -0.633
B 578 42.73% 26.55 55.19% -0.042 1.013 -0.007
C 689 44.7% 26.03 58.49% -0.162 0.7261 0.245
D 511 48.34% 24.4 52.84% 0.492 1.5466 -0.009
E 554 43.68% 24.96 53.61% -0.323 0.581 -0.266
F 487 44.97% 26.44 57.49% 0.037 1.0413 0.697
G 438 47.72% 26.98 57.76% -0.134 0.8347 -0.221
H 447 45.07% 26.53 59.73% 0.042 1.0348 0.686
East 244 50.41% 24.71 41.39% -0.248 0.7404 -0.367
Northeast 129 49.61% 25.29 40.31% -0.563 0.3867 -0.989
Northwest 108 38.89% 24.44 38.89% 0.232 1.2735 0.185
Southeast 95 54.74% 22.87 36.84% 0.305 1.2233 1.324
Southwest 89 48.31% 17.78 26.97% 0.022 1.4785 -0.215
West 235 44.26% 19.93 29.79% -0.169 0.9379 -1.114

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 35.0 100.0% 0.322 0.9859
Not Using Events or Tokens 22 27.27% 15.82 45.45% 0.006 0.5003 -0.018
Skip Initial Invader Actions 79 21.52% 58.97 88.61% 0.878 0.2555 1.649
Start of Game Growth 94 27.66% 54.99 82.98% 0.381 -0.0318 1.189
Unlimited Undo 329 34.04% 19.88 38.3% 0.32 0.2245 -0.419
Using Tokens but Not Events 297 36.49% 22.97 57.91% -0.868 -0.7927 0.006

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1171 16.77 5.81%
II 908 30.59 63.77%
III 751 34.74 87.22%
IV 385 38.3 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.34 Win Model: 0.38
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2137 43.59% 23.55 50.68%
2 695 47.34% 26.88 53.67%
3 241 47.3% 28.26 61.83%
4 93 44.09% 27.76 63.44%
5 8 25.0% 11.88 37.5%
6 41 46.34% 24.63 48.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 68
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 653
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 574
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 383
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 823
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 193
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 477
Lose: Spirit destroyed 27

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-02-21 04:03:14 (Pacific Time)