Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 6 33.33% 39.5 2.439 83.33% -0.195 0.3558
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 5 60.0% 41.4 5.106 80.0% 0.042 0.9196
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 4 50.0% 17.5 -6.559 0.0% -1.43 -0.3109
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 63.0 10.826 100.0% 0.098 1.6859
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 17 64.71% 44.35 5.697 35.29% -1.543 0.7173
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 8 25.0% 30.5 -0.659 75.0% 0.041 0.2857
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 7 57.14% 39.43 1.696 85.71% 0.121 -0.0051
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 8 50.0% 48.63 7.966 87.5% 0.255 0.3707
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 1 100.0% 52.0 8.081 100.0% 0.216 0.59
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 56.0 11.842 100.0% 0.252 0.7181
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 73.0 19.24 100.0% 0.345 1.33
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 2 100.0% 28.5 -2.189 0.0% -0.71 0.865
The Kingdom of England 0 1 9 66.67% 31.22 0.158 66.67% -0.115 0.4012
The Kingdom of England 1 3 8 50.0% 35.25 0.361 62.5% -0.584 0.0257
The Kingdom of England 2 4 3 66.67% 32.0 -1.563 33.33% -0.772 0.3554
The Kingdom of England 3 6 1 100.0% 20.0 -8.25 0.0% -0.617 1.1261
The Kingdom of England 6 11 3 100.0% 32.33 -1.022 0.0% -0.808 1.491
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 2 50.0% 44.0 5.703 100.0% 0.342 1.2441
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 2 50.0% 32.5 -0.22 50.0% -0.361 0.5295
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 7 57.14% 38.0 3.748 42.86% -0.825 1.5769
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 50.0% 38.25 1.743 25.0% -1.15 1.2342
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 46.0 5.61 42.86% -0.512 1.9636
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 4 100.0% 68.75 16.214 75.0% 0.072 2.4396
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 24 62.5% 30.63 -0.276 66.67% -0.161 -0.2849
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 100.0% 40.0 4.285 100.0% 0.388 1.233
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 18 83.33% 32.72 1.51 44.44% -0.916 -0.0878
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 6 83.33% 42.17 5.327 50.0% -0.422 0.4485
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 4 75.0% 50.75 7.683 50.0% -0.5 0.7357
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 3 33.33% 41.33 2.657 33.33% -0.824 0.6068
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 7 100.0% 44.57 6.006 28.57% -0.785 0.9138
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 5 60.0% 29.4 -3.198 80.0% -0.067 0.0996
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 5 60.0% 45.6 4.523 100.0% 0.714 0.4902
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 8 50.0% 40.75 3.474 75.0% -0.237 0.2166
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 80.0% 43.0 5.744 60.0% -0.256 0.0538
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 2 100.0% 33.0 1.412 50.0% -0.354 0.5985
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 18.0 -6.648 0.0% -0.678 0.3028
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 7 85.71% 39.29 2.987 28.57% -0.93 0.2615
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 11 72.73% 40.36 2.992 63.64% 0.174 0.1176
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 4 75.0% 35.25 1.723 50.0% -0.235 0.5388
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 2 100.0% 54.5 12.373 100.0% 0.424 1.1346
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 62.0 11.351 100.0% 0.073 1.4121
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 43.0 0.709 0.0% -0.725 1.2939

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 264 47.35 33.14 76.52% -0.202 0.8139 -0.373
1 Thematic 23 78.26 39.57 60.87% -0.557 0.6155 0.169
2 Archipelago 2 100.0 35.5 50.0% -0.412 0.5711
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 76 55.26 36.26 77.63% 0.249 1.0007 -0.225
2 Coastline 9 77.78 29.44 66.67% 0.071 0.6731
2 Fragment 2 100.0 30.0 100.0% 0.342 0.79
2 Heart 6 83.33 19.67 16.67% -0.754 -0.2161
2 Opposite Shores 21 42.86 28.0 80.95% 0.61 1.6023
2 Thematic 17 76.47 37.29 70.59% 0.693 1.3913 0.137
2 Top to Top 3 33.33 42.0 100.0% 0.676 1.186 0.272
3 Round (Default) 44 43.18 30.27 75.0% 0.149 0.7434 0.026
3 Thematic 3 33.33 38.33 33.33% -0.524 -0.5613 -0.217
4 Thematic 3 66.67 43.67 33.33% 0.053 0.5826 -0.122
4 Trapezoid (Default) 7 57.14 30.57 57.14% 0.002 -0.0249
5 Other 2 50.0 37.0 100.0% 0.204 0.3727
6 Star 1 0.0 24.0 100.0% 0.027 0.8104
6 Thematic 1 100.0 33.0 0.0% -0.231 -0.5096 -0.096
6 Two Centers (Default) 4 25.0 31.0 50.0% -0.779 -0.8729

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 20 26.15 50.0% -1.141 0.7621 -0.689
Aid From Lesser Spirits 18 32.89 55.56% -1.241 0.4887 -0.766
All Things Weaken 21 22.0 42.86% -1.703 0.2825 -0.357
Back Against the Wall 11 49.64 90.91% 0.474 2.2902 1.042
Disintegrating Ecosystem 19 33.0 73.68% -0.316 1.7344 0.028
Downward Spiral 15 32.8 66.67% -0.886 1.1069 0.272
Erosion of Will 14 29.71 35.71% -1.336 0.7472 -0.223
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 13 40.08 100.0% 0.735 1.1759
Memory Fades to Dust 21 23.76 38.1% -1.884 0.1998 -0.569
Power Corrodes the Spirit 13 26.62 30.77% -1.893 0.0456 0.155
Promising Farmlands 20 30.45 55.0% -1.288 0.7576 -0.193
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 8 32.5 75.0% -0.188 0.2365 -0.294
Thriving Communities 21 24.1 52.38% -1.494 0.49 -0.539
Unnatural Proliferation 19 36.26 68.42% -0.625 1.3398 0.372
Untended Land Crumbles 20 28.35 50.0% -1.526 0.4674 0.223

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 100 48.0% 29.5 71.0% -0.099 0.698 -0.399
B 89 41.57% 31.56 67.42% -0.721 0.0222 -0.082
C 94 44.68% 32.18 73.4% -0.223 0.3457 0.386
D 89 51.69% 32.2 69.66% -0.425 0.3707 -0.233
E 108 55.56% 35.06 83.33% 0.6 1.2472 0.185
F 82 53.66% 34.48 73.17% -0.061 0.6627 0.183
G 76 51.32% 33.21 76.32% 0.222 0.9535 0.583
H 70 48.57% 33.36 82.86% 0.505 1.2177 0.574
East 35 77.14% 41.17 65.71% -0.019 0.7499 -0.868
Northeast 16 56.25% 39.63 62.5% -0.421 0.4387 -0.435
Northwest 12 66.67% 43.0 58.33% 0.496 1.5729 0.131
Southeast 13 92.31% 42.15 61.54% -0.031 0.6754 0.468
Southwest 10 80.0% 33.8 50.0% -0.565 0.5604 -0.2
West 27 74.07% 36.33 51.85% -1.375 -0.4207 -0.368

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 2 50.0% 36.5 100.0% 0.226 0.4014
Skip Initial Invader Actions 17 23.53% 42.0 94.12% 0.12 -0.0224
Start of Game Growth 22 36.36% 43.05 86.36% 0.647 -0.113 -0.224
Unlimited Undo 22 45.45% 41.41 81.82% 0.167 -0.437 -0.639
Using Tokens but Not Events 51 37.25% 30.69 78.43% 0.178 0.0217 -0.057

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 79 22.56 21.52%
II 181 30.98 74.59%
III 154 34.53 87.66%
IV 74 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.183 Win Model: -0.146
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 290 50.34% 33.63 74.83%
2 135 59.26% 34.05 74.07%
3 45 40.0% 30.49 75.56%
4 11 63.64% 34.91 54.55%
5 1 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
6 6 33.33% 30.17 50.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 17
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 133
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 135
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 74
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1
Lose: Adversary condition 36
Win: Sacrifice victory 2
Lose: Blight pool ran out 82
Lose: Spirit destroyed 8

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)