Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 26 69.23% 34.31 0.002 61.54% -0.53 -0.022
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 11 63.64% 39.27 3.635 72.73% -0.195 0.2091
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15 66.67% 20.0 -1.208 6.67% -1.298 -0.1205
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 63.0 0.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 21 57.14% 45.81 8.932 38.1% -0.897 1.3742
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 20 45.0% 31.65 2.225 70.0% 0.273 0.226
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 41 70.73% 31.12 -0.416 60.98% -0.569 -0.8019
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 21 61.9% 51.33 10.02 90.48% 0.575 0.7649
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 7 71.43% 49.29 -1.675 71.43% -0.896 -0.5291
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 56.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 73.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 5 80.0% 53.8 8.841 40.0% -0.239 1.2077
The Kingdom of England 0 1 22 59.09% 27.36 -0.651 50.0% -0.628 -0.0712
The Kingdom of England 1 3 21 61.9% 34.05 1.082 61.9% -0.344 0.3343
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 24.2 -6.403 20.0% -0.805 0.3485
The Kingdom of England 3 6 3 100.0% 21.33 -2.973 0.0% -0.406 1.2712
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 32.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4 100.0% 44.25 0.0 25.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 9 77.78% 34.33 -1.447 66.67% -0.716 -0.0429
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 12 58.33% 29.17 0.119 33.33% -0.724 0.3479
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 69.23% 37.23 6.934 38.46% -0.197 1.9179
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 25.0% 32.75 -3.611 12.5% -0.801 1.3293
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 46.0 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 8 62.5% 51.13 0.266 37.5% -1.528 0.6466
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 38 65.79% 31.05 1.362 65.79% 0.23 0.1363
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 15 60.0% 35.6 1.39 66.67% -0.622 0.269
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 24 83.33% 34.71 0.882 50.0% -0.261 0.941
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 75.0% 47.33 0.0 58.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 85.71% 45.0 5.692 42.86% -0.274 0.9439
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 47.25 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 11 81.82% 55.73 -1.28 45.45% -0.45 1.1077
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 20 60.0% 28.8 1.541 75.0% 0.513 0.6834
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 14 71.43% 39.43 3.33 85.71% 0.613 0.8322
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 12 58.33% 40.42 10.31 75.0% 0.496 0.7754
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 7 85.71% 41.86 7.144 57.14% 0.028 0.4797
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 44.25 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 25 84.0% 37.12 3.553 28.0% -1.055 0.1033
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 25 56.0% 33.8 -0.712 64.0% -0.172 -0.6245
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 11 63.64% 33.09 -0.025 45.45% -0.263 0.5399
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 12 91.67% 37.17 -0.215 58.33% -0.738 -0.3009
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 2 100.0% 61.0 17.134 100.0% 0.309 1.5479
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 28.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 43.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 594 52.53 32.09 72.22% -0.032 0.6315 -0.515
1 Thematic 45 68.89 36.31 57.78% 0.277 1.3338 0.124
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 28.33 33.33%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 122 59.02 35.41 75.41% -0.308 0.2098 -0.101
2 Coastline 20 65.0 37.75 70.0% -0.12 0.0807 0.101
2 Fragment 4 100.0 33.5 100.0% 0.253 0.5513
2 Heart 6 83.33 19.67 16.67%
2 Opposite Shores 33 45.45 30.91 81.82% 0.292 0.8306
2 Thematic 24 79.17 34.17 62.5% -0.094 0.6885 0.118
2 Top to Top 3 33.33 42.0 100.0% 0.19
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 59.0 100.0%
3 Round (Default) 69 49.28 32.13 73.91% 0.15 0.4541 0.235
3 Sunrise 1 0.0 13.0 0.0%
3 Thematic 3 33.33 38.33 33.33% -0.283
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 41.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 7 28.57 36.43 28.57% -0.801 -0.6972 -0.263
4 Trapezoid (Default) 10 50.0 32.7 60.0% 0.087 0.1646
5 Other 3 66.67 32.67 100.0%
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 29.5 100.0% 0.052 0.8225
6 Thematic 5 80.0 40.2 40.0% 0.179 0.4203 0.133
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 50.0 32.25 62.5% 0.084 0.2756

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 37 27.03 54.05% -0.402 1.5691 -1.113
Aid From Lesser Spirits 34 35.09 55.88% -1.187 0.5912 -0.943
All Things Weaken 41 23.76 46.34% -0.953 1.0958 -0.023
Back Against the Wall 27 39.59 77.78% -0.354 1.585 0.972
Disintegrating Ecosystem 38 30.61 68.42% -0.679 1.4491 0.088
Downward Spiral 37 31.59 64.86% -0.687 1.2742 0.233
Erosion of Will 33 25.33 30.3% -1.194 0.8875 -0.245
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 21 36.1 95.24% 0.611 1.1125
Memory Fades to Dust 43 24.42 39.53% -0.585 1.5555 -0.206
Power Corrodes the Spirit 38 28.92 44.74% -0.86 1.1211 -0.167
Promising Farmlands 43 27.4 48.84% -1.414 0.6078 -0.323
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 12 31.17 75.0% -0.033 0.4632 -0.303
Thriving Communities 44 24.73 52.27% -0.811 1.2485 -0.616
Unnatural Proliferation 34 32.47 64.71% -0.712 1.2455 0.371
Untended Land Crumbles 45 26.56 44.44% -0.929 1.1045 0.523

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 182 52.75% 30.02 68.68% -0.246 0.4903 -0.867
B 174 48.28% 32.35 67.24% -0.113 0.5844 0.059
C 211 51.66% 33.63 75.83% 0.801 1.2705 1.001
D 152 55.92% 31.37 68.42% -0.337 0.3724 -0.005
E 179 56.42% 34.42 78.77% 0.428 0.9722 -0.014
F 150 54.67% 33.12 70.0% 0.212 0.8737 0.295
G 143 51.05% 34.42 76.92% 0.348 0.979 0.401
H 127 54.33% 33.51 79.53% 0.723 1.3876 0.531
East 63 71.43% 37.67 58.73% -0.608 0.0538 -0.743
Northeast 38 60.53% 37.08 55.26% 0.198 0.8582 -0.414
Northwest 24 50.0% 39.67 54.17% 0.223 0.8336 0.277
Southeast 20 85.0% 39.85 60.0% -0.197 0.3338 0.721
Southwest 15 80.0% 34.33 46.67% -0.419 0.5491 0.023
West 47 63.83% 33.7 44.68% -1.235 -0.4293 -0.61

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 7 57.14% 31.29 85.71% 0.41 0.6364
Skip Initial Invader Actions 27 22.22% 49.15 92.59% 0.075 -0.9055 0.418
Start of Game Growth 36 33.33% 48.61 88.89% 0.349 -0.1076 0.091
Unlimited Undo 59 52.54% 36.39 71.19% -0.228 -0.7791 -0.425
Using Tokens but Not Events 103 45.63% 30.42 76.7% -0.055 0.0998 -0.174

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 157 22.65 19.11%
II 354 31.08 68.93%
III 297 34.66 86.2%
IV 157 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.361 Win Model: 0.186
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 649 54.24% 32.45 70.72%
2 208 60.1% 34.56 74.04%
3 71 46.48% 31.42 73.24%
4 19 42.11% 34.84 52.63%
5 2 50.0% 29.5 100.0%
6 16 50.0% 34.5 62.5%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 30
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 254
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 242
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 157
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 79
Win: Sacrifice victory 4
Lose: Blight pool ran out 182
Lose: Spirit destroyed 14

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)