Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 70 52.86% 22.26 -0.446 40.0% -0.219 0.1277
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 47 40.43% 22.26 -1.106 42.55% -0.423 -0.1461
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 40 57.5% 16.98 -7.977 12.5% -1.186 -0.3742
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 17 23.53% 21.47 0.0 17.65%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 11 63.64% 28.91 2.319 36.36% 0.087 1.469
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 31 48.39% 46.26 3.103 45.16% -0.325 1.606
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 87 37.93% 22.54 -0.162 52.87% 0.018 0.234
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 97 56.7% 22.43 -3.323 43.3% -0.992 -1.0623
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 64 56.25% 40.08 4.263 68.75% 0.017 -0.0663
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 39 66.67% 31.82 4.304 38.46% -0.436 -0.2208
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 30 63.33% 38.23 5.054 53.33% 0.082 0.307
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 4 100.0% 55.75 32.724 50.0% 0.626 1.2982
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 15 60.0% 38.67 4.148 26.67% -0.407 0.9505
The Kingdom of England 0 1 76 38.16% 20.68 0.696 40.79% -0.27 -0.0604
The Kingdom of England 1 3 42 47.62% 23.19 -7.423 40.48% -0.733 -0.4455
The Kingdom of England 2 4 26 69.23% 16.81 -9.825 11.54% -0.303 0.4296
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 64.29% 13.14 -7.438 7.14% -0.587 0.6319
The Kingdom of England 4 7 14 28.57% 31.07 -5.578 35.71% -0.189 1.0915
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 100.0% 24.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 102 55.88% 16.56 -7.98 2.94% -0.606 1.3889
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 43 44.19% 14.63 -6.767 25.58% -1.803 -1.3897
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 46.94% 16.49 -3.685 20.41% -1.209 -0.4019
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 36 50.0% 27.11 7.264 27.78% 0.039 1.1418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 31 38.71% 26.71 -2.552 12.9% -1.14 0.2579
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 54.55% 29.27 -8.182 27.27% -0.639 0.8747
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 30.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 23 47.83% 48.91 2.775 30.43% -0.544 0.9326
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 84 46.43% 22.32 -3.041 46.43% -0.894 -0.6825
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 64 39.06% 21.66 -2.582 35.94% -0.48 -0.0956
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 60 61.67% 25.95 3.067 36.67% -0.097 0.2813
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 32 59.38% 33.09 -4.286 40.63% -1.2 -0.9276
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 26 57.69% 35.12 -2.997 23.08% -1.389 -0.5282
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 22 59.09% 43.0 -8.158 50.0% -0.274 0.4213
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 75 56.0% 28.69 1.264 24.0% -1.141 0.0003
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 70 34.29% 19.94 -2.885 51.43% -0.564 -0.368
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 68 33.82% 20.04 -4.274 44.12% -0.891 -0.7953
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 57 36.84% 19.68 -4.444 36.84% -0.614 -0.505
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 19 63.16% 29.63 4.292 42.11% -0.076 0.391
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 10 70.0% 24.0 -4.461 30.0% -1.025 -0.4055
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 10 80.0% 7.3 -9.724 0.0% -0.364 0.622
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 52 73.08% 31.19 -9.271 28.85% -1.214 -0.2161
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 84 42.86% 23.82 -2.721 50.0% -0.65 -0.5583
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 40 42.5% 23.38 -3.376 40.0% -0.489 0.1712
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 27 62.96% 26.48 2.822 40.74% -0.085 0.3093
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 12 41.67% 21.58 -0.063 33.33% -0.419 0.6125
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 33.33% 17.73 -5.523 20.0% -0.831 0.1278
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -9.935 0.0% -0.48 1.237
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 14 42.86% 72.14 13.53 57.14% -0.284 1.6984

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1649 44.6 24.91 54.94% 0.1 0.3008 -0.656
1 Thematic 173 49.13 22.62 35.26% 0.226 0.9459 -0.787
2 Archipelago 7 42.86 29.43 28.57% -0.282
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 334 49.4 26.79 55.69% -0.696 -0.6882 0.053
2 Coastline 48 45.83 27.38 56.25% -1.011 -1.2161 0.484
2 Fragment 17 64.71 31.47 70.59% -0.093 -0.3706 0.283
2 Heart 10 70.0 30.1 40.0% 0.333
2 Opposite Shores 116 44.83 32.65 62.07% 1.037 1.094 -0.051
2 Thematic 92 44.57 17.84 31.52% -0.486 -0.0342 0.361
2 Top to Top 17 58.82 49.41 88.24% 0.907 0.8089 0.501
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 29.5 50.0%
3 Other 3 33.33 28.33 66.67% -0.007 -0.0361 0.309
3 Round (Default) 196 47.45 28.24 62.24% -0.351 -0.5769 -0.138
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 20.0 50.0% 0.079 -0.9055
3 Thematic 13 69.23 30.69 38.46% 0.014
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0% 0.409 -0.7763
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0%
4 Other 1 100.0 30.0 100.0% 0.473 -0.8848 0.106
4 Thematic 17 52.94 31.76 35.29% -0.126 -0.3242 -0.147
4 Trapezoid (Default) 57 43.86 24.96 63.16% -0.582 -0.8252 0.115
5 Other 9 33.33 14.89 44.44%
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0% 0.171 0.1146
6 Thematic 20 55.0 25.25 35.0% -0.054 0.6998 -0.089
6 Two Centers (Default) 11 45.45 26.55 54.55% -0.195
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.24

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 80 24.77 45.0% 0.017 0.1769 -0.305
Aid From Lesser Spirits 80 31.1 51.25% 0.345 0.2587 -0.951
All Things Weaken 89 24.26 42.7% 0.483 0.8253 -0.365
Attenuated Essence 25 24.68 44.0% -0.388 -0.3138 -0.307
Back Against the Wall 66 32.48 59.09% 0.008 0.0836 0.749
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 22 24.86 40.91% 0.245 0.4363 0.316
Burn Brightest Before the End 16 26.06 43.75% -0.24 -0.1164 -0.262
Disintegrating Ecosystem 71 26.68 54.93% 0.646 1.0192 0.299
Downward Spiral 72 28.07 52.78% -0.441 -0.3039 0.626
Erosion of Will 86 23.41 29.07% 0.051 0.3455 -0.53
Intensifying Exploitation 29 23.21 37.93% 1.393 1.6318 1.329
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 36 35.33 83.33% 0.283 -0.2492 0.331
Memory Fades to Dust 94 23.18 43.62% 0.032 0.3125 -0.212
Power Corrodes the Spirit 81 26.16 48.15% 0.522 0.6755 0.094
Promising Farmlands 94 26.21 43.62% -0.145 0.2016 0.558
Shattered Fragments of Power 13 28.62 38.46% -0.241 -0.0464 0.357
Slow Dissolution of Will 20 23.75 55.0% 0.093 0.5437 0.336
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 25 28.6 68.0% 0.08 -0.6601 -0.35
The Border of Life and Death 7 3.29 0.0% -0.429 -0.8625 -0.116
Thriving Communities 91 24.91 47.25% 0.225 0.5234 -0.362
Thriving Crops 12 26.75 58.33% 0.716 0.6133 -0.134
Unnatural Proliferation 76 29.22 56.58% 0.325 0.4701 1.077
Untended Land Crumbles 111 25.4 45.95% 0.425 0.7247 0.564

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 511 43.44% 24.86 57.14% 0.523 1.5171 -0.719
B 515 43.5% 27.48 56.5% 0.206 1.1238 0.024
C 623 46.39% 26.8 59.87% 0.446 1.1889 0.349
D 451 50.55% 24.84 52.11% 0.373 1.3243 0.013
E 484 45.45% 26.23 56.2% -0.214 0.5662 -0.309
F 422 45.73% 27.49 60.19% 0.44 1.3329 0.745
G 370 48.92% 27.75 58.65% -0.138 0.7175 -0.275
H 388 47.29% 27.18 60.57% 0.144 0.9923 0.71
East 206 52.91% 25.5 41.75% 0.205 0.9739 -0.331
Northeast 111 52.25% 26.11 41.44% -0.399 0.388 -0.995
Northwest 94 39.36% 24.5 37.23% 0.163 1.1464 0.16
Southeast 83 55.42% 21.82 32.53% -0.24 0.6346 1.358
Southwest 77 53.25% 17.38 23.38% -0.649 0.5588 -0.264
West 199 47.24% 19.96 27.64% -0.655 0.2796 -1.075

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 35.0 100.0% 0.194 0.8233
Not Using Events or Tokens 19 31.58% 14.53 42.11% -0.724 -0.2177 -0.027
Skip Initial Invader Actions 71 22.54% 59.52 87.32% 0.847 0.2122 1.565
Start of Game Growth 85 29.41% 55.72 82.35% 0.847 0.4577 1.13
Unlimited Undo 299 35.12% 19.76 36.79% -1.083 -1.0388 -0.477
Using Tokens but Not Events 244 41.56% 25.77 65.16% 0.524 0.4968 -0.05

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 971 17.67 6.08%
II 807 30.7 63.69%
III 681 34.75 87.22%
IV 349 38.22 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.108 Win Model: -0.053
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1865 44.85% 24.44 52.28%
2 614 49.51% 28.41 56.35%
3 201 47.76% 28.12 61.69%
4 82 48.78% 27.78 62.2%
5 8 25.0% 11.88 37.5%
6 38 47.37% 23.97 44.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 59
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 592
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 509
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 347
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 642
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 182
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 436
Lose: Spirit destroyed 25

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-01-31 03:48:31 (Pacific Time)