Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 47 59.57% 26.62 -3.727 48.94% -0.798 -0.5355
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 29 41.38% 27.45 -1.536 51.72% -0.27 0.0759
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 31 54.84% 19.42 -3.498 16.13% -0.624 0.2061
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 12 16.67% 19.42 -4.1 16.67% -1.039 -0.0473
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 83.33% 41.5 10.389 50.0% 0.129 1.4487
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 24 58.33% 49.33 26.61 45.83% 0.302 2.3152
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 51 41.18% 26.75 -1.81 62.75% -0.207 -0.1217
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 72 61.11% 25.89 -1.703 51.39% -0.565 -0.6604
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 47 53.19% 43.77 7.71 76.6% 0.773 0.7615
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 21 71.43% 34.05 0.985 42.86% -0.623 -0.4256
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 19 78.95% 42.58 6.51 57.89% -0.237 -0.0344
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 3 100.0% 48.67 6.263 33.33% -0.475 0.0866
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 77.78% 40.56 2.02 22.22% -0.482 0.8561
The Kingdom of England 0 1 56 42.86% 21.63 -4.312 42.86% -1.186 -0.9202
The Kingdom of England 1 3 33 51.52% 27.27 -5.06 48.48% -1.265 -1.0817
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 83.33% 19.78 -2.314 11.11% -0.646 0.091
The Kingdom of England 3 6 9 55.56% 11.67 -9.919 0.0% -0.91 0.2291
The Kingdom of England 4 7 7 42.86% 35.14 1.95 42.86% -0.499 0.5477
The Kingdom of England 5 9 3 100.0% 24.0 -2.432 0.0% -1.064 0.5763
The Kingdom of England 6 11 99 56.57% 17.06 -3.972 3.03% -3.584 -1.5424
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 17 58.82% 25.18 -8.396 47.06% -0.645 -0.2429
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 32 50.0% 18.63 -4.617 21.88% -1.298 -0.3431
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 20 55.0% 33.95 -1.813 35.0% -0.896 0.1771
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 26 38.46% 28.19 3.376 15.38% -0.56 0.7277
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 8 75.0% 40.25 -11.27 37.5% -0.586 0.8152
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 100.0% 30.0 2.467 0.0% -0.387 0.5418
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 14 57.14% 46.29 4.033 28.57% -0.571 0.773
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 56 58.93% 28.27 0.333 60.71% -0.117 -0.1002
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 47 44.68% 25.49 0.007 42.55% -0.601 -0.1711
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 50 62.0% 26.44 -1.503 36.0% -1.111 -0.67
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 20 70.0% 40.3 4.445 50.0% -0.382 0.0041
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 7 85.71% 45.0 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 15 53.33% 39.4 6.411 40.0% -0.352 0.4316
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 52 61.54% 28.29 0.033 23.08% -0.972 0.3033
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 46 43.48% 24.5 -4.735 65.22% -0.816 -0.6364
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 40 42.5% 26.8 -0.417 57.5% -0.33 -0.3036
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 40 42.5% 24.1 -5.828 45.0% -1.287 -1.0644
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 15 73.33% 33.27 0.125 46.67% -0.403 0.0251
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 44.25 0.0 75.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 85.71% 7.14 -7.63 0.0% -1.321 -0.312
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 41 82.93% 36.17 3.302 31.71% -0.346 0.5412
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 48 43.75% 27.81 -2.141 60.42% -0.166 -0.045
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 28 60.71% 29.68 -2.247 50.0% -0.633 0.0073
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 19 73.68% 26.21 -5.563 36.84% -0.968 -0.5422
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 6 50.0% 32.5 -0.138 50.0% -0.044 1.0709
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 8 37.5% 28.25 0.574 37.5% -0.788 0.1165
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 10 50.0% 74.4 23.393 60.0% 0.146 1.9867

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1190 48.24 27.15 58.91% 0.483 0.5367 -0.63
1 Thematic 108 60.19 27.08 39.81% -0.489 -0.0117 -0.555
2 Archipelago 6 50.0 30.33 33.33% -0.653 -0.5488 -0.322
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 243 51.85 29.32 62.14% -0.188 -0.1064 -0.115
2 Coastline 42 45.24 29.17 59.52% -1.101 -1.2552 0.654
2 Fragment 7 71.43 37.29 100.0% 0.347 0.0978 0.467
2 Heart 10 70.0 30.1 40.0% 0.013 -0.2745 0.131
2 Opposite Shores 71 47.89 31.23 61.97% 0.159 0.1817 -0.56
2 Thematic 55 56.36 24.93 45.45% -0.535 -0.1311 0.506
2 Top to Top 10 60.0 46.8 90.0% 1.289 1.1225 0.156
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 29.5 50.0% -0.179 -1.7281
3 Other 2 0.0 38.5 100.0% 0.283 0.8238 0.351
3 Round (Default) 130 47.69 30.96 70.0% -0.271 -0.3864 0.225
3 Sunrise 1 0.0 13.0 0.0%
3 Thematic 9 66.67 36.56 55.56% 0.724 0.8046 0.066
4 Archipelago 2 0.0 42.5 100.0% 0.049 -0.6257
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0% 0.154 -0.1897
4 Thematic 12 41.67 37.0 41.67% 0.077 -0.1853 -0.189
4 Trapezoid (Default) 38 44.74 28.89 68.42% 0.488 0.4055 -0.104
5 Other 7 42.86 19.14 57.14% -0.932 -1.2171
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0%
6 Star 2 0.0 29.5 100.0%
6 Thematic 11 63.64 33.45 45.45% -0.605 -0.185 -0.048
6 Two Centers (Default) 11 45.45 26.55 54.55% -0.306 -0.2019 -0.123
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.124 -0.7366 -0.107

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 65 27.02 49.23% 0.368 0.6107 -0.367
Aid From Lesser Spirits 56 34.34 58.93% 0.471 0.3935 -0.983
All Things Weaken 69 23.64 42.03% 0.048 0.4405 -0.514
Attenuated Essence 14 30.14 50.0% -0.015 0.0915 -0.473
Back Against the Wall 47 34.13 63.83% 0.177 0.235 1.076
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 10 31.8 40.0% 0.246 0.4479 0.299
Burn Brightest Before the End 9 30.67 44.44% 0.018 0.2281 -0.242
Disintegrating Ecosystem 58 27.47 55.17% -0.701 -0.2773 -0.055
Downward Spiral 61 27.18 54.1% -0.9 -0.6642 0.201
Erosion of Will 65 23.12 26.15% -0.713 -0.4033 -0.492
Intensifying Exploitation 17 18.76 29.41% -1.143 -0.8556 0.476
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 34 36.5 85.29% 0.782 0.2886 0.439
Memory Fades to Dust 79 23.58 41.77% -0.092 0.2441 -0.063
Power Corrodes the Spirit 63 26.46 42.86% -0.748 -0.5276 -0.097
Promising Farmlands 78 27.74 46.15% 0.113 0.5658 0.538
Shattered Fragments of Power 8 27.63 37.5% -0.31 -0.2594 -0.063
Slow Dissolution of Will 14 24.79 64.29% 1.258 1.6576 -0.09
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 16 29.63 68.75% -0.337 -1.0478 -0.482
The Border of Life and Death 1 0.0 0.0% -0.358 -0.693
Thriving Communities 69 27.97 53.62% -0.333 0.0299 0.076
Thriving Crops 3 9.0 0.0% -0.325 -0.5232 -0.103
Unnatural Proliferation 57 29.02 56.14% -0.169 0.0463 0.825
Untended Land Crumbles 85 25.69 41.18% -0.403 -0.1215 0.337

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 348 47.13% 27.24 61.49% 0.147 0.8876 -0.832
B 362 41.99% 29.49 61.05% 0.196 0.9216 0.133
C 445 47.19% 28.13 61.8% -0.3 0.2823 0.378
D 328 53.96% 26.28 53.35% -0.428 0.2833 -0.478
E 351 48.15% 29.37 62.68% -0.055 0.5103 0.017
F 299 49.5% 29.08 64.21% 0.165 0.8356 0.724
G 272 51.1% 30.42 68.01% -0.272 0.3795 0.05
H 266 49.25% 29.73 68.42% 0.075 0.6451 0.717
East 136 61.03% 31.38 51.47% 0.23 0.7686 -0.744
Northeast 73 54.79% 32.58 52.05% -0.714 -0.0787 -0.495
Northwest 58 50.0% 31.22 44.83% -0.192 0.6167 0.239
Southeast 48 70.83% 28.31 43.75% -0.472 0.2342 1.182
Southwest 41 63.41% 24.24 34.15% -0.756 0.2342 -0.016
West 114 56.14% 26.1 35.96% -0.807 0.097 -0.554

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 13 46.15% 19.23 53.85% -0.624 -0.2446
Skip Initial Invader Actions 52 26.92% 57.92 92.31% 1.361 0.7438 1.63
Start of Game Growth 66 34.85% 53.36 84.85% 0.801 0.4528 1.1
Unlimited Undo 197 40.1% 22.69 42.64% -1.233 -1.2395 -0.647
Using Tokens but Not Events 196 40.31% 27.19 67.35% 0.069 0.0583 0.05

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 576 20.4 8.33%
II 611 31.01 65.14%
III 517 34.76 86.65%
IV 270 38.07 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.484 Win Model: 0.427
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1321 49.36% 27.01 56.7%
2 428 52.1% 30.31 61.92%
3 138 46.38% 30.69 69.57%
4 55 45.45% 32.13 67.27%
5 6 33.33% 15.83 50.0%
6 26 46.15% 28.96 53.85%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 48
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 446
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 395
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 268
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 298
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 139
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Blight pool ran out 349
Lose: Spirit destroyed 20

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)