Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 19 63.16% 36.21 -0.069 63.16% -0.719 -0.2058
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 10 60.0% 41.6 6.134 80.0% 0.289 0.7587
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 10 80.0% 15.9 -7.907 0.0% -2.006 -1.0285
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 1 100.0% 63.0 0.0 100.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 19 63.16% 44.68 7.578 36.84% -0.433 1.7413
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 14 50.0% 28.07 -2.955 57.14% -0.267 -0.0906
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 18 66.67% 31.72 -1.911 61.11% -0.817 -1.0922
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 13 46.15% 51.62 7.79 92.31% 0.284 0.5332
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 6 83.33% 47.17 6.862 66.67% -0.194 0.273
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 2 50.0% 56.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 1 100.0% 73.0 0.0 100.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 4 75.0% 59.0 9.011 50.0% -0.344 1.1513
The Kingdom of England 0 1 15 66.67% 25.2 -7.657 46.67% -1.662 -1.1682
The Kingdom of England 1 3 14 57.14% 33.64 0.807 57.14% -0.207 0.542
The Kingdom of England 2 4 5 80.0% 24.2 -5.312 20.0% -0.663 0.472
The Kingdom of England 3 6 2 100.0% 20.5 -3.825 0.0% -0.301 1.3868
The Kingdom of England 4 7 1 0.0% 32.0 -1.299 0.0% -0.279 1.2808
The Kingdom of England 6 11 4 100.0% 44.25 7.689 25.0% -0.428 2.1099
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 6 83.33% 34.67 -0.998 66.67% -0.397 0.3442
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 55.56% 33.78 0.4 44.44% -0.88 0.0344
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 13 69.23% 37.23 2.773 38.46% -0.634 1.6757
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 5 40.0% 35.2 -3.581 20.0% -0.94 1.3458
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 7 85.71% 46.0 0.0 42.86%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 7 71.43% 54.14 9.689 42.86% -0.853 1.3025
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 36 63.89% 31.67 1.38 66.67% 0.153 0.2836
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 7 85.71% 39.0 3.348 85.71% 0.099 1.0638
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 22 81.82% 34.91 6.927 50.0% 0.49 1.4954
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 75.0% 47.33 5.14 58.33% -0.252 0.6013
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 5 80.0% 45.2 7.194 40.0% -0.255 1.093
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 4 50.0% 47.25 16.45 50.0% 0.134 1.3766
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 10 80.0% 58.0 21.62 50.0% 0.429 1.903
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 11 81.82% 23.82 -4.914 63.64% -0.34 -0.1397
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 10 80.0% 39.5 1.945 90.0% 0.276 0.4271
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 10 60.0% 38.8 0.643 70.0% -0.041 0.299
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 5 80.0% 43.0 13.516 60.0% 0.431 0.7863
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 4 75.0% 44.25 14.045 75.0% 0.599 1.3736
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 19 89.47% 34.16 1.369 21.05% -1.169 -0.0021
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 17 64.71% 36.71 -1.166 64.71% -0.113 -0.3928
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 10 60.0% 34.7 1.532 50.0% -0.151 0.8003
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 11 90.91% 38.45 1.365 63.64% -0.64 -0.3007
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 1 100.0% 62.0 0.0 100.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 1 100.0% 28.0 -1.325 0.0% -0.426 0.7689
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 2 100.0% 43.0 0.0 0.0%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 461 51.84 32.24 72.23% 0.26 0.7056 -0.413
1 Thematic 36 72.22 36.92 52.78% -0.351 0.281 0.099
2 Archipelago 3 100.0 28.33 33.33% -0.394 -0.3809
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 100 57.0 35.98 77.0% 0.03 0.3747 -0.195
2 Coastline 12 83.33 36.83 75.0% 0.68 0.7627
2 Fragment 4 100.0 33.5 100.0% 0.697 0.785
2 Heart 6 83.33 19.67 16.67%
2 Opposite Shores 32 46.88 30.72 81.25% 0.042 0.4202
2 Thematic 18 77.78 36.06 66.67% -0.01 0.507 0.172
2 Top to Top 3 33.33 42.0 100.0% 0.16
3 Archipelago 1 0.0 59.0 100.0% 0.085 -0.892
3 Round (Default) 58 48.28 31.72 70.69% -0.531 -0.3385 0.297
3 Sunrise 1 0.0 13.0 0.0% -0.426 -0.1057
3 Thematic 3 33.33 38.33 33.33% -0.249 -0.4946 -0.242
4 Archipelago 1 0.0 41.0 100.0% 0.069 -0.3333
4 Thematic 4 50.0 42.25 50.0% 0.314 0.3196 -0.067
4 Trapezoid (Default) 9 55.56 29.44 55.56% -0.248 -0.389
5 Other 3 66.67 32.67 100.0% 0.318 0.1422
6 Other 1 0.0 34.0 100.0% 0.148 0.8451
6 Star 2 0.0 29.5 100.0% 0.044 0.5769
6 Thematic 2 100.0 21.0 0.0% -0.407 0.0917 -0.132
6 Two Centers (Default) 8 50.0 32.25 62.5% -0.045 0.181

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 29 26.76 55.17% -0.582 1.3272 -1.006
Aid From Lesser Spirits 28 35.89 57.14% -0.848 0.8371 -0.98
All Things Weaken 35 21.37 40.0% -1.526 0.4737 -0.427
Back Against the Wall 20 42.35 80.0% -0.122 1.826 1.023
Disintegrating Ecosystem 29 30.41 65.52% -0.376 1.689 0.028
Downward Spiral 30 31.6 63.33% -0.768 1.1943 0.509
Erosion of Will 26 25.62 26.92% -1.784 0.3232 -0.317
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 19 36.21 94.74% -0.02 0.5958
Memory Fades to Dust 36 23.94 36.11% -1.402 0.6551 -0.305
Power Corrodes the Spirit 29 30.41 44.83% -1.011 0.9676 -0.141
Promising Farmlands 31 29.39 51.61% -1.261 0.8406 0.06
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 11 31.55 72.73% -0.358 -0.0286 -0.269
Thriving Communities 33 24.48 54.55% -0.671 1.379 -0.5
Unnatural Proliferation 28 31.82 60.71% -1.221 0.7233 0.318
Untended Land Crumbles 34 26.03 41.18% -1.088 0.9386 0.185

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 151 51.66% 29.79 68.21% -0.254 0.5053 -0.873
B 138 46.38% 32.08 68.12% 0.046 0.7227 -0.041
C 166 52.41% 32.74 71.69% 0.222 0.7474 0.931
D 128 53.13% 31.91 71.09% 0.302 1.0289 -0.191
E 150 55.33% 34.81 80.0% 0.66 1.2204 0.004
F 130 56.15% 33.44 69.23% -0.131 0.5592 0.311
G 118 49.15% 34.74 77.97% 0.253 0.9481 0.535
H 106 57.55% 33.0 78.3% 0.415 1.0761 0.747
East 48 75.0% 38.5 60.42% -0.237 0.4425 -0.812
Northeast 26 61.54% 36.81 53.85% -0.545 0.0247 -0.441
Northwest 15 66.67% 38.53 53.33% -0.425 0.4168 0.155
Southeast 15 93.33% 38.8 60.0% 0.162 0.6888 0.556
Southwest 11 81.82% 31.55 45.45% -0.31 0.6314 -0.157
West 33 69.7% 33.85 45.45% -0.952 0.0486 -0.646

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
Not Using Events or Tokens 6 50.0% 31.67 83.33% 0.251 0.4918
Skip Initial Invader Actions 24 20.83% 50.17 95.83% 0.603 0.234 0.431
Start of Game Growth 32 31.25% 49.75 90.63% 0.97 0.3469 0.189
Unlimited Undo 32 43.75% 40.88 81.25% 0.065 -0.5655 -0.732
Using Tokens but Not Events 82 43.9% 29.73 75.61% 0.2 0.2442 -0.143

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 124 22.62 20.97%
II 294 31.05 68.71%
III 228 34.62 86.4%
IV 122 37.86 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.012 Win Model: 0.173
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 504 53.77% 32.56 70.24%
2 174 60.34% 34.98 75.86%
3 60 45.0% 30.9 70.0%
4 15 53.33% 34.27 60.0%
5 2 50.0% 29.5 100.0%
6 13 46.15% 30.23 61.54%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 26
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 195
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 201
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 122
Lose: Invader deck ran out 3
Lose: Adversary condition 60
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Blight pool ran out 146
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)