Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 50 20.0% 13.46 -3.463 26.0% -0.193 0.3778
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 35 42.86% 23.63 -1.043 34.29% -0.114 0.0138
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 13 53.85% 15.08 -5.328 15.38% -0.353 0.2523
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 25 28.0% 15.2 0.0 24.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 7 71.43% 19.71 -3.327 14.29% -0.773 -0.465
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 5 20.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 10 80.0% 32.5 7.205 20.0% -0.203 1.8801
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 150 46.0% 21.93 2.906 41.33% 0.537 0.94
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 129 34.88% 19.02 0.436 37.21% 0.209 0.5924
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 72 54.17% 15.44 -8.094 12.5% -0.199 0.3372
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 51 31.37% 26.1 2.997 27.45% 0.074 1.0337
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 30 63.33% 17.6 -8.057 13.33% -0.667 0.4088
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 16 50.0% 21.69 0.0 12.5%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 59 47.46% 34.58 -3.607 27.12% -0.824 0.4897
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 297 39.39% 16.74 -5.42 36.36% -0.67 -0.5078
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 249 48.19% 22.32 2.047 45.38% 0.431 0.5656
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 203 55.17% 30.72 5.529 49.26% -0.093 -0.1434
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 115 61.95% 28.35 2.689 37.39% 0.05 0.3476
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 58 58.62% 32.91 -9.1 44.83% -0.219 -0.0366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 17 64.71% 34.59 0.0 23.53%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 47 53.19% 25.89 -2.455 14.89% -0.565 0.6748
The Kingdom of England 0 1 205 28.78% 15.49 -6.529 31.22% -0.535 -0.1684
The Kingdom of England 1 3 118 42.37% 19.92 11.411 33.9% 0.657 1.0334
The Kingdom of England 2 4 96 53.68% 14.82 -8.967 12.5% -1.164 -0.586
The Kingdom of England 3 6 56 57.14% 17.41 0.0 12.5%
The Kingdom of England 4 7 70 35.71% 22.14 -7.07 18.57% -0.933 0.0867
The Kingdom of England 5 9 11 45.45% 16.64 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 125 56.0% 16.9 -5.42 3.2% -0.453 1.2731
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 140 45.0% 17.34 -10.27 32.86% -0.634 -0.1776
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 125 46.4% 16.87 4.048 22.4% -0.085 0.619
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 98 38.78% 20.1 -1.502 20.41% -0.407 0.497
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 64 48.44% 22.81 -0.964 9.38% -0.318 1.0194
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 40 50.0% 23.98 12.565 20.0% 0.151 1.4186
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 60.0% 22.6 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 76 50.0% 34.55 6.692 15.79% -0.878 0.424
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 234 35.9% 18.33 -5.343 40.6% -0.486 -0.2443
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 152 42.11% 21.45 4.468 39.47% 0.144 0.465
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 130 50.77% 25.43 4.976 36.92% 0.175 0.3843
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 118 53.39% 29.4 3.014 38.14% -0.19 -0.1215
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 83 50.6% 26.43 -6.021 20.48% -0.895 -0.3417
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 76 65.79% 28.72 -8.225 21.05% -0.132 0.3501
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 118 58.47% 30.03 3.421 18.64% -0.965 0.1163
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 237 27.0% 14.69 -4.039 37.13% -0.323 -0.055
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 195 38.46% 17.84 2.895 34.87% 0.211 0.2936
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 149 48.99% 18.79 6.896 31.54% 0.475 0.6395
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 90 50.0% 25.57 3.149 38.89% 0.155 0.3718
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 38 73.68% 20.58 0.0 21.05%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 39 64.1% 23.03 0.0 28.21%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 171 61.99% 22.81 0.0 19.3%
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 250 33.6% 20.28 -3.822 44.8% -0.236 0.1989
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 128 35.94% 19.58 -0.482 35.16% -0.002 0.8619
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 77 51.95% 25.16 1.384 41.56% -0.208 0.273
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 43 32.56% 15.95 -3.304 23.26% -0.333 0.6536
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 44 47.73% 18.14 -6.958 20.45% -0.34 0.4917
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 7 28.57% 14.71 8.569 14.29% -0.03 1.2876
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 53 54.72% 41.15 1.069 26.42% -0.841 0.9671

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4077 42.79 21.23 45.55% 0.402 0.6264 -0.168
1 Thematic 660 45.3 20.49 31.21% -0.138 0.412 -0.23
2 Archipelago 19 57.89 30.89 42.11%
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 808 43.44 23.09 47.28% 0.303 0.4139 -0.229
2 Coastline 140 37.86 21.12 48.57% -0.35 -0.4396 -0.188
2 Fragment 60 51.67 23.43 40.0% 0.182 -0.1571 0.298
2 Heart 18 61.11 33.17 50.0% -0.15
2 Opposite Shores 239 42.02 31.32 62.76% 0.369 0.4059 0.994
2 Thematic 256 35.55 17.53 30.47% -0.078 0.4509 0.053
2 Top to Top 49 55.1 32.1 67.35%
3 Archipelago 25 64.0 45.4 52.0% 0.359
3 Coastline 7 71.43 47.86 85.71% 0.342
3 Other 15 33.33 42.87 80.0% 0.345 -0.3974 0.287
3 Round (Default) 531 51.42 26.12 54.61% -0.922 -1.0182 -0.488
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 13.33 33.33%
3 Thematic 49 44.9 25.73 36.73% -0.356 -0.114
4 Archipelago 7 57.14 41.43 100.0%
4 Coastline 5 60.0 16.4 40.0% -0.072
4 Leaf 2 50.0 23.5 50.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 21.33 66.67%
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
4 Snake 1 0.0 30.0 100.0%
4 Thematic 37 51.35 29.3 40.54% -0.076 0.3979 -0.387
4 Trapezoid (Default) 167 48.8 25.29 59.88% -0.155 -0.3435 -0.639
5 Other 22 27.27 11.64 36.36%
5 Thematic 1 0.0 75.0 100.0% 0.205 -0.2853 0.485
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 21.0 50.0%
6 Other 8 25.0 28.88 75.0%
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 35 37.14 27.74 45.71% -0.282
6 Two Centers (Default) 24 33.33 24.58 54.17% 0.148 0.1245
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.109 -0.1464

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 186 23.06 38.71% 0.911 1.2214 -0.048
Aid From Lesser Spirits 134 28.6 46.27% -0.326
All Things Weaken 198 23.62 36.36% -0.064 0.4095 0.616
Attenuated Essence 109 24.04 40.37% 0.484 0.6304 0.372
Back Against the Wall 152 30.3 53.95% -0.405 -0.2752 -0.407
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 99 23.79 40.4% 0.002 0.3222 -0.4
Burn Brightest Before the End 75 28.55 48.0% 0.051 0.2274 0.246
Disintegrating Ecosystem 182 24.27 42.86% 0.197 0.5773 0.094
Downward Spiral 211 25.77 47.39% 0.545 0.7385 -0.592
Erosion of Will 197 23.26 34.52% 0.924 1.2618 0.472
Intensifying Exploitation 112 25.54 45.54% -0.495 -0.1422 -0.76
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 72 30.03 68.06% -0.038
Memory Fades to Dust 213 22.61 41.78% 0.236 0.5648 -0.56
Power Corrodes the Spirit 191 24.99 45.03% 0.158 0.4247 0.82
Promising Farmlands 185 24.69 40.54% -0.271 0.1768 -0.559
Shattered Fragments of Power 82 26.54 37.8% -0.322 -0.3225 0.355
Slow Dissolution of Will 108 24.1 37.96% -0.631 -0.2202 -0.161
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 41 30.12 70.73% 0.397 -0.1615
The Border of Life and Death 24 22.67 50.0% 0.069 -0.1762
Thriving Communities 189 24.43 46.56% -0.694 -0.4169 -0.559
Thriving Crops 34 29.88 61.76% 0.289 0.1933 -0.184
Unnatural Proliferation 182 26.16 45.6% 0.346 0.5502 -0.002
Untended Land Crumbles 204 24.02 45.59% 0.24 0.5396 -0.475

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1301 44.53% 22.24 48.89% -0.352 0.6394 -0.716
B 1332 42.93% 24.01 49.85% -0.209 0.6566 -0.866
C 1385 46.2% 24.38 53.21% 0.087 0.8387 0.202
D 1236 45.38% 23.07 47.9% 0.475 1.4199 0.185
E 1191 44.16% 23.49 48.53% 0.506 1.2605 0.404
F 1095 44.79% 24.25 51.69% 0.664 1.5385 0.278
G 1036 45.51% 24.88 51.54% 0.057 0.9191 0.437
H 1016 43.69% 23.56 49.41% -0.521 0.2859 0.016
East 642 44.08% 22.93 36.6% -0.531 0.2146 -0.174
Northeast 318 46.23% 25.67 40.57% 0.186 1.0796 -0.363
Northwest 292 36.99% 22.49 33.56% 0.269 1.0118 -0.38
Southeast 231 43.72% 20.06 31.6% -0.113 0.8953 0.157
Southwest 224 41.07% 17.21 28.57% -0.038 1.1189 -0.318
West 642 39.72% 18.73 28.35% -0.41 0.5728 0.143

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 5 0.0% 31.8 60.0% -0.091 0.6288 -0.19
Not Using Events or Tokens 97 44.21% 14.48 32.99% -0.016
Skip Initial Invader Actions 147 17.93% 51.43 80.27% 0.586 -0.2189 0.598
Start of Game Growth 202 25.25% 47.32 72.77% 0.38 -0.1865 0.408
Unlimited Undo 758 34.57% 20.72 36.54% 0.795 0.8225 -0.269
Using Tokens but Not Events 519 36.63% 22.11 54.14% 0.516 0.4891 0.861

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3056 12.25 3.86%
II 1824 29.91 57.02%
III 1565 34.94 85.75%
IV 833 38.9 99.88%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.678 Win Model: 0.383
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 4900 42.78% 20.8 42.57%
2 1493 44.44% 25.45 50.5%
3 574 49.83% 26.99 55.75%
4 215 49.53% 26.5 58.6%
5 23 21.74% 9.43 30.43%
6 73 34.25% 26.22 53.42%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 118
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1338
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1032
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 824
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 2380
Lose: Invader deck ran out 23
Lose: Adversary condition 387
Win: Sacrifice victory 20
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1099
Lose: Spirit destroyed 57

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-11-08 23:57:51 (Pacific Time)