Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 2 0.0% 0.0 -6.722 0.0% -0.533 -0.6269
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 3 66.67% 39.67 10.571 66.67% 0.601 0.0316
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.478 0.0% -0.241 -0.3301
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 3 0.0% 0.0 -9.614 0.0% -0.899 -1.1156
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 2 0.0% 0.0 -8.688 0.0% -0.553 1.1943
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 115 51.3% 21.98 -4.995 41.74% -0.608 -0.2157
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 94 36.17% 20.24 -3.315 40.43% -0.41 0.0138
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 56 57.14% 15.41 -7.289 10.71% -1.091 -0.55
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 30 30.0% 20.47 -7.294 16.67% -0.844 -0.065
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 20 70.0% 22.45 -9.644 20.0% -0.555 0.9925
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 50.0% 29.0 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 44 47.73% 36.73 7.885 31.82% -0.391 1.5693
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 219 43.84% 17.87 -7.142 38.36% -1.663 -1.4772
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 180 50.56% 21.0 -0.528 41.67% 0.003 0.0293
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 132 58.33% 32.79 -2.205 53.03% -1.083 -0.9362
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 75 65.33% 29.53 -0.076 37.33% -0.509 -0.2463
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 40 57.5% 32.63 18.754 45.0% 0.248 0.52
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 15 66.67% 36.73 0.0 26.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 29 55.17% 29.93 6.902 20.69% -0.083 1.1459
The Kingdom of England 0 1 136 32.35% 15.77 -2.504 30.88% -0.672 -0.2823
The Kingdom of England 1 3 80 40.0% 19.18 -1.249 32.5% -0.045 0.544
The Kingdom of England 2 4 64 54.69% 11.94 -2.201 9.38% -0.586 0.0265
The Kingdom of England 3 6 37 59.46% 15.3 -2.81 8.11% -1.0 0.1279
The Kingdom of England 4 7 45 31.11% 19.22 -7.216 15.56% -0.941 0.0589
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 37.5% 14.5 -15.566 0.0% -0.291 1.216
The Kingdom of England 6 11 111 54.95% 17.1 2.827 3.6% -0.484 1.3692
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 97 44.33% 14.97 0.752 26.8% -0.038 0.4892
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 81 44.44% 17.68 -2.604 25.93% -0.297 0.5608
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 61 47.54% 25.89 6.08 29.51% 0.084 1.3139
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 43 46.51% 25.65 17.69 11.63% 0.209 1.4584
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 22 54.55% 26.45 0.0 22.73%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 71.43% 24.71 6.454 0.0% -0.293 0.7483
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 29 41.38% 40.93 -3.962 24.14% -0.587 0.883
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 167 36.53% 18.45 -0.137 38.92% -0.016 0.3322
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 116 41.38% 21.07 -2.932 37.93% -0.315 -0.049
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 99 55.56% 24.95 -1.222 34.34% -0.825 -0.5066
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 67 52.24% 30.03 20.198 38.81% 0.802 1.0873
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 65 53.85% 28.55 0.624 20.0% -0.943 -0.1443
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 32 53.13% 33.19 -9.273 37.5% -0.464 0.0503
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 102 57.84% 28.41 7.093 19.61% -0.834 0.3134
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 158 29.75% 15.06 -4.67 37.97% -0.647 -0.3955
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 137 35.77% 18.65 -2.961 37.96% -0.838 -0.6465
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 109 51.38% 17.68 -3.091 29.36% -0.847 -0.6291
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 51 54.9% 26.94 1.618 39.22% -0.148 0.3027
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 19 84.21% 26.89 11.089 36.84% 0.352 1.0965
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 22 63.64% 18.95 0.0 22.73%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 87 68.97% 27.76 -0.634 25.29% -1.324 -0.2919
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 161 37.27% 21.48 5.093 45.96% 0.631 0.8772
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 90 40.0% 21.66 2.253 38.89% 0.082 0.8342
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 58 60.34% 28.24 12.485 46.55% 1.173 1.6583
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 23 34.78% 12.96 -7.653 17.39% -0.484 0.3451
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 30 50.0% 20.7 3.958 23.33% 0.195 1.174
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 26 50.0% 54.12 7.725 42.31% -0.268 1.5111

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2851 43.44 22.04 48.23% -0.308 0.0651 -0.395
1 Thematic 381 43.83 21.4 34.91% 0.202 0.9161 -0.788
2 Archipelago 9 55.56 26.44 22.22% -0.163
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 582 43.99 23.73 48.28% -0.053 0.1083 0.177
2 Coastline 95 40.0 22.74 51.58% 0.086 -0.1067 0.431
2 Fragment 42 57.14 20.07 35.71% -0.152 -0.2003 0.079
2 Heart 16 62.5 30.56 50.0% 0.625 0.4124 0.486
2 Opposite Shores 177 43.75 30.54 61.02% 0.204 0.3364 0.447
2 Thematic 184 36.41 18.09 32.61% -0.8 -0.0794 0.265
2 Top to Top 34 58.82 35.71 67.65% 0.818 0.7337 0.417
3 Archipelago 3 66.67 37.67 66.67%
3 Coastline 2 100.0 50.0 100.0%
3 Other 11 45.45 45.18 81.82% 0.722
3 Round (Default) 381 50.66 26.62 57.22% -0.159 -0.1824 -0.365
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 13.33 33.33%
3 Thematic 35 51.43 26.0 37.14% 0.399 0.4066 -0.025
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0%
4 Coastline 4 75.0 20.5 50.0% -0.316 -0.1866 -0.312
4 Leaf 2 50.0 23.5 50.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 21.33 66.67% 0.232
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
4 Thematic 26 57.69 30.15 34.62% -0.216
4 Trapezoid (Default) 109 46.79 25.09 60.55% 0.373 0.3777 -0.073
5 Other 18 27.78 14.22 44.44% -0.513
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 21.0 50.0% -0.317 -1.3547
6 Other 3 66.67 20.33 66.67% -0.07
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 25 44.0 24.76 40.0% -0.284 -0.0802 -0.106
6 Two Centers (Default) 17 41.18 24.24 52.94% -0.336 0.1388 -0.145
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% 0.027 -0.6487 -0.116

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 132 21.86 37.12% 0.313 0.3843 0.048
Aid From Lesser Spirits 112 29.05 48.21% -0.599 -0.7083 -0.55
All Things Weaken 145 23.58 36.55% -0.135 0.0423 -0.404
Attenuated Essence 65 23.42 40.0% -0.373 -0.3216 -0.465
Back Against the Wall 113 29.74 54.87% -0.212 -0.2278 1.179
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 61 22.23 40.98% 0.038 0.2217 0.144
Burn Brightest Before the End 47 27.68 44.68% 1.387 1.4743 0.192
Disintegrating Ecosystem 120 24.09 47.5% -0.017 0.2741 0.362
Downward Spiral 140 28.14 53.57% -0.023 0.0833 1.306
Erosion of Will 146 23.31 34.93% -0.457 -0.2915 -0.227
Intensifying Exploitation 73 25.62 50.68% 0.229 0.4167 0.714
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 54 32.31 74.07% -0.141 -0.5692 0.346
Memory Fades to Dust 143 23.73 46.85% 0.714 0.9486 -0.476
Power Corrodes the Spirit 137 24.77 45.99% -0.719 -0.6227 -0.111
Promising Farmlands 138 25.66 43.48% 0.476 0.8404 0.787
Shattered Fragments of Power 48 24.65 35.42% -0.55 -0.4847 0.608
Slow Dissolution of Will 54 22.19 38.89% 0.315 0.7785 0.357
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 31 31.1 70.97% 0.64 0.0385 -0.274
The Border of Life and Death 15 22.93 46.67% 0.403
Thriving Communities 154 24.81 50.65% 0.503 0.729 -0.221
Thriving Crops 22 29.45 59.09% 0.29 0.0649 -0.135
Unnatural Proliferation 125 27.42 49.6% 0.046 0.1683 0.736
Untended Land Crumbles 149 24.23 42.95% -0.206 0.0263 0.091

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 925 44.7% 22.99 51.14% -0.355 0.5631 -0.466
B 912 44.35% 24.57 51.32% -0.633 0.2083 -0.242
C 1024 45.02% 24.37 54.49% 0.251 0.9336 0.102
D 841 46.73% 23.08 48.39% -0.013 0.8292 -0.317
E 831 44.89% 23.61 50.42% -0.376 0.2756 -0.389
F 795 45.66% 24.55 52.83% 0.074 0.8334 0.451
G 689 46.88% 25.31 53.7% -0.019 0.7382 -0.191
H 700 43.63% 23.76 51.57% -0.155 0.5637 0.207
East 434 44.24% 23.12 38.48% -0.003 0.8109 -0.325
Northeast 215 45.12% 24.25 39.53% -0.538 0.1296 -0.971
Northwest 166 36.14% 23.8 37.35% -0.423 0.3814 0.582
Southeast 161 47.83% 20.68 32.3% -0.533 0.1722 0.876
Southwest 144 46.53% 17.77 29.17% 0.118 1.5082 -0.71
West 389 41.13% 19.4 30.08% -0.526 0.2671 -1.285

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 45 36.36% 19.22 53.33% 0.485 0.9694 -0.022
Skip Initial Invader Actions 101 20.0% 55.25 84.16% 0.248 -0.4824 1.358
Start of Game Growth 117 25.0% 52.38 81.2% 0.487 0.0408 1.33
Unlimited Undo 545 35.41% 18.79 34.31% -1.309 -1.3426 -0.421
Using Tokens but Not Events 411 35.12% 21.72 54.26% 0.376 0.2139 -0.41

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1998 14.25 4.55%
II 1301 30.3 58.26%
III 1131 34.84 85.94%
IV 597 38.61 99.83%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.289 Win Model: 0.23
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3338 43.12% 21.69 45.66%
2 1065 45.39% 25.27 50.99%
3 408 50.25% 27.38 57.6%
4 146 48.63% 25.75 56.85%
5 18 22.22% 12.06 38.89%
6 52 42.31% 23.35 48.08%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 91
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 969
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 752
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 590
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1520
Lose: Invader deck ran out 17
Lose: Adversary condition 272
Win: Sacrifice victory 15
Lose: Blight pool ran out 758
Lose: Spirit destroyed 43

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-06-21 21:43:18 (Pacific Time)