Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 14 28.57% 14.64 -1.807 28.57% -0.605 -0.1185
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 11 45.45% 24.55 -0.129 36.36% -0.548 -0.5282
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 8 62.5% 20.13 -1.108 25.0% -0.443 -0.2895
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 11 9.09% 13.09 0.92 18.18% -0.088 0.0399
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 75.0 19.104 100.0% 0.312 0.8154
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -5.201 0.0% -0.133 0.8407
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 60.0% 16.2 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 122 50.82% 22.17 6.251 41.8% 0.307 0.7804
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 110 35.45% 18.7 -4.426 36.36% -1.042 -0.7506
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 56.14% 15.14 0.0 10.53%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 36 27.78% 21.86 2.396 22.22% -0.256 0.6896
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 23 69.57% 21.87 0.162 17.39% -0.696 0.5822
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 23.2 -7.542 20.0% -0.25 1.2177
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 47 44.68% 36.17 4.895 31.91% -0.32 1.4781
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 241 41.91% 17.7 -2.344 37.34% -0.793 -0.5702
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 208 50.48% 21.68 2.058 43.75% 0.336 0.3028
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 157 58.6% 32.64 2.997 51.59% -0.069 -0.0556
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 83 66.27% 28.27 -2.969 36.14% -0.523 -0.2813
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 44 56.82% 31.27 -0.231 43.18% -0.244 -0.0485
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 15 66.67% 36.73 0.0 26.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 31 54.84% 28.0 -10.349 19.35% -0.41 0.8303
The Kingdom of England 0 1 161 29.81% 15.55 -3.001 31.06% -0.705 -0.3952
The Kingdom of England 1 3 93 41.94% 20.84 -2.743 35.48% -0.756 -0.4357
The Kingdom of England 2 4 82 54.88% 15.68 3.783 13.41% -0.598 -0.1187
The Kingdom of England 3 6 39 58.97% 15.15 -4.096 7.69% -0.524 0.5161
The Kingdom of England 4 7 52 36.54% 21.62 3.285 19.23% -0.054 0.9456
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 37.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 114 55.26% 16.88 -2.313 3.51% -0.397 1.4453
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 107 42.99% 15.22 4.153 27.1% 0.26 0.6362
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 102 44.12% 16.98 -2.59 23.53% -1.14 -0.2623
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 75 44.0% 23.69 -5.275 25.33% -1.778 -0.594
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 53 47.17% 23.62 -2.709 9.43% -1.602 -0.4622
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 25 52.0% 26.08 -10.45 24.0% -0.838 0.4714
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 24.5 -1.308 0.0% -0.49 0.7828
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 31 38.71% 40.97 11.636 25.81% 0.13 1.523
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 197 37.56% 18.74 0.678 40.61% 0.185 0.5039
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 126 42.86% 21.41 -2.204 38.89% -0.544 -0.0551
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 106 56.6% 25.96 7.799 36.79% 0.345 0.751
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 85 52.94% 30.13 12.732 38.82% 0.504 0.5321
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 68 52.94% 29.1 15.663 22.06% 0.26 0.7663
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 36 55.56% 31.22 -4.378 33.33% -1.333 -0.8758
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 103 57.28% 28.14 0.0 19.42%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 182 28.02% 14.32 -3.749 36.26% -0.55 -0.3073
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 160 40.0% 17.21 -7.079 33.13% -1.613 -1.579
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 122 50.0% 17.44 -0.568 29.51% -0.486 -0.2449
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 60 56.67% 27.33 5.008 40.0% 0.205 0.4559
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 25 72.0% 22.16 -4.567 28.0% -0.779 -0.0246
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 26 65.38% 17.73 -4.664 19.23% -0.398 0.7006
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 125 64.0% 22.57 -3.479 20.0% -1.206 -0.3098
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 192 36.46% 21.24 -0.254 46.35% -0.044 0.1967
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 100 41.0% 21.62 0.994 39.0% 0.143 0.8967
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 66 57.58% 27.52 1.342 45.45% -0.081 0.2869
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 31 35.48% 15.77 3.473 22.58% -0.115 1.0546
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 33 51.52% 21.3 2.862 24.24% -0.3 0.6563
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 28 50.0% 51.29 -1.665 39.29% -0.546 0.9698

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3252 43.56 21.65 47.36% 0.04 0.5666 -0.48
1 Thematic 489 45.4 20.47 32.92% -0.181 0.6735 -0.823
2 Archipelago 13 61.54 23.0 23.08% -0.165 0.8897 -0.196
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 669 42.75 23.35 48.13% 0.165 0.4426 0.029
2 Coastline 100 40.0 23.24 54.0% 0.936 1.039 0.368
2 Fragment 44 54.55 20.75 38.64% -0.008
2 Heart 17 58.82 32.82 52.94% 0.527 0.6382 1.019
2 Opposite Shores 198 42.64 29.92 60.61% -0.239 0.0978 0.268
2 Thematic 209 37.32 18.23 31.58% -0.4 0.2892 0.245
2 Top to Top 38 52.63 35.29 71.05% 0.599 0.8406 0.403
3 Archipelago 21 57.14 42.71 52.38% 0.369 -0.3512 0.533
3 Coastline 3 66.67 33.33 66.67% -0.533 -0.8734
3 Other 12 41.67 41.42 75.0% 0.774
3 Round (Default) 431 50.35 25.82 55.45% -0.722 -0.7157 -0.37
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 13.33 33.33%
3 Thematic 42 47.62 26.14 35.71% -0.551 -0.4668 -0.109
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0%
4 Coastline 4 75.0 20.5 50.0% -0.276
4 Leaf 2 50.0 23.5 50.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 21.33 66.67% 0.167 -0.452 0.271
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
4 Thematic 29 58.62 29.31 37.93% 0.432 0.6995 -0.226
4 Trapezoid (Default) 126 46.03 25.56 61.11% 0.149 0.3126 -0.393
5 Other 21 28.57 12.19 38.1% -0.313 -0.6987 -0.602
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 21.0 50.0%
6 Other 5 40.0 25.8 80.0% 0.338 0.3072 -0.103
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 27.67 44.44% -0.062
6 Two Centers (Default) 20 35.0 22.55 50.0% -0.616 -0.051 -0.176
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.116

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 150 21.88 36.0% -0.865 -0.6157 0.14
Aid From Lesser Spirits 119 29.29 49.58% 1.219 1.1005 -0.52
All Things Weaken 160 23.02 35.0% -0.322 0.0154 -0.185
Attenuated Essence 79 22.33 36.71% -0.172 -0.1452 -0.694
Back Against the Wall 127 30.12 56.69% 0.316 0.3171 1.162
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 73 23.0 43.84% 0.448 0.6649 0.483
Burn Brightest Before the End 56 27.57 46.43% 0.396 0.3776 0.093
Disintegrating Ecosystem 144 23.01 43.06% -0.496 -0.1025 0.352
Downward Spiral 170 26.52 50.59% -0.068 0.0402 1.233
Erosion of Will 160 23.24 35.0% 0.072 0.4246 -0.34
Intensifying Exploitation 81 26.42 50.62% 0.103 0.3484 0.579
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 30.49 69.23% 0.225 -0.2987 0.379
Memory Fades to Dust 174 22.71 42.53% -0.592 -0.3443 -0.236
Power Corrodes the Spirit 154 24.28 44.81% -0.115 0.1069 -0.172
Promising Farmlands 156 25.08 42.95% 0.463 0.7457 0.776
Shattered Fragments of Power 59 25.93 38.98% 0.51 0.5866 0.917
Slow Dissolution of Will 70 22.89 42.86% -0.299 0.0975 0.079
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 30.59 70.59% 0.781 0.0858 -0.28
The Border of Life and Death 17 21.82 47.06% 0.378
Thriving Communities 171 24.6 49.12% -0.493 -0.1363 -0.002
Thriving Crops 26 29.81 61.54% 0.058 -0.1382 -0.113
Unnatural Proliferation 145 26.01 46.21% -0.694 -0.5321 0.683
Untended Land Crumbles 167 24.47 43.71% -0.713 -0.4814 0.049

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1046 44.21% 22.53 50.1% -0.229 0.7753 -0.521
B 1057 43.56% 24.09 50.61% 0.038 0.9577 -0.286
C 1137 45.56% 24.06 53.65% -0.26 0.4749 0.086
D 997 46.14% 22.89 47.64% -0.082 0.8957 -0.294
E 953 43.65% 23.24 49.32% -0.959 -0.1391 -0.269
F 897 45.26% 24.3 52.51% 0.036 0.9095 0.487
G 809 44.99% 25.26 54.14% 0.458 1.2674 -0.273
H 799 43.61% 23.76 51.06% 0.057 0.8721 0.087
East 500 45.6% 23.62 38.6% 0.673 1.5757 -0.174
Northeast 245 46.12% 24.84 40.41% 0.379 1.1873 -0.95
Northwest 226 37.61% 21.77 33.63% -0.49 0.41 0.388
Southeast 181 48.62% 21.45 33.15% -0.335 0.5159 0.58
Southwest 172 47.09% 18.14 29.65% -0.369 1.0068 -0.484
West 495 41.62% 18.37 28.08% -0.767 0.1885 -1.297

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 77 44.74% 14.78 35.06% -1.47 -1.1017 -0.109
Skip Initial Invader Actions 109 19.44% 54.96 85.32% 0.964 0.3791 1.238
Start of Game Growth 150 28.86% 50.47 76.0% 0.478 -0.0363 1.564
Unlimited Undo 619 35.54% 19.98 35.38% -0.11 -0.2197 -0.182
Using Tokens but Not Events 440 34.62% 21.3 53.41% -0.254 -0.2794 -0.713

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2337 13.33 4.19%
II 1487 30.1 57.57%
III 1284 34.83 85.28%
IV 684 38.67 99.85%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.333 Win Model: 0.315
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3873 43.49% 21.2 44.44%
2 1210 44.33% 25.37 51.16%
3 464 49.35% 26.61 55.82%
4 165 48.48% 26.13 58.18%
5 22 22.73% 9.86 31.82%
6 58 39.66% 24.98 51.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 98
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1091
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 849
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 675
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1816
Lose: Invader deck ran out 18
Lose: Adversary condition 315
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 864
Lose: Spirit destroyed 47

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)