Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 13 30.77% 12.15 -1.791 23.08% -0.378 0.0673
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 9 55.56% 30.0 6.94 44.44% -0.177 -0.2257
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 8 62.5% 20.13 1.577 25.0% -0.274 -0.1362
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 9 0.0% 9.0 -3.985 11.11% -0.518 -0.4718
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 1 0.0% 75.0 19.21 100.0% 0.344 0.7577
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 5 60.0% 16.2 0.0 0.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 120 51.67% 21.77 -4.31 40.83% -0.571 -0.1459
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 110 35.45% 18.7 -4.134 36.36% -0.943 -0.6751
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 57 56.14% 15.14 0.0 10.53%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 35 25.71% 20.8 -8.913 20.0% -0.59 0.3802
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 22 72.73% 22.86 2.607 18.18% -0.666 0.6789
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 5 40.0% 23.2 -8.328 20.0% -0.24 1.271
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 47 44.68% 36.17 5.903 31.91% -0.239 1.5886
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 239 41.84% 17.8 0.601 37.66% -0.266 -0.0698
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 208 50.48% 21.68 1.825 43.75% 0.249 0.1953
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 154 58.44% 32.25 0.98 50.65% -0.546 -0.5443
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 81 65.43% 28.75 -2.004 37.04% -0.292 -0.0996
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 43 55.81% 31.65 -7.483 44.19% -0.189 0.0434
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 15 66.67% 36.73 0.0 26.67%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 31 54.84% 28.0 -9.887 19.35% -0.415 0.8091
The Kingdom of England 0 1 160 30.0% 15.65 -2.634 31.25% -0.616 -0.315
The Kingdom of England 1 3 92 41.3% 20.89 0.574 35.87% -0.32 -0.0607
The Kingdom of England 2 4 79 53.16% 15.19 2.054 12.66% -0.999 -0.5359
The Kingdom of England 3 6 39 58.97% 15.15 -3.708 7.69% -0.545 0.4766
The Kingdom of England 4 7 52 36.54% 21.62 7.373 19.23% 0.037 0.9916
The Kingdom of England 5 9 8 37.5% 14.5 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 114 55.26% 16.88 -3.029 3.51% -0.47 1.3667
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 107 42.99% 15.22 0.535 27.1% -0.002 0.3438
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 102 44.12% 16.98 -2.701 23.53% -1.361 -0.5331
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 74 44.59% 24.01 -1.422 25.68% -1.207 -0.0715
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 51 47.06% 24.2 -1.625 9.8% -1.277 -0.0961
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 24 54.17% 27.17 -11.862 25.0% -0.582 0.7268
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 8 75.0% 24.5 0.086 0.0% -0.393 0.8506
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 31 38.71% 40.97 10.975 25.81% -0.018 1.3548
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 191 37.17% 18.87 1.717 40.84% 0.407 0.6798
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 126 42.86% 21.41 0.165 38.89% -0.316 0.1501
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 106 56.6% 25.96 7.424 36.79% 0.376 0.7006
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 84 52.38% 30.26 2.239 39.29% -0.165 -0.1927
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 67 52.24% 28.66 -11.382 20.9% -0.432 0.0668
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 35 54.29% 31.43 -5.124 34.29% -1.055 -0.5921
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 103 57.28% 28.14 0.0 19.42%
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 176 28.98% 14.2 -5.427 35.8% -0.848 -0.5936
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 156 38.46% 17.47 -5.439 33.97% -1.134 -1.1109
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 122 50.0% 17.44 -3.079 29.51% -0.91 -0.7134
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 60 56.67% 27.33 1.799 40.0% -0.311 -0.0891
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 24 75.0% 23.08 -5.263 29.17% -1.0 -0.2503
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 26 65.38% 17.73 -4.018 19.23% -0.366 0.6495
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 123 64.23% 22.79 -3.142 20.33% -1.005 -0.1041
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 189 36.51% 21.17 -1.104 46.03% -0.236 -0.0025
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 99 40.4% 21.84 1.203 39.39% 0.069 0.8685
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 66 57.58% 27.52 3.743 45.45% 0.217 0.4734
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 37.93% 14.66 1.019 20.69% -0.222 0.8637
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 33 51.52% 21.3 3.626 24.24% -0.144 0.8088
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 33.33% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 28 50.0% 51.29 -0.701 39.29% -0.445 1.1097

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3195 43.36 21.66 47.42% -0.029 0.3034 -0.482
1 Thematic 479 45.51 20.65 33.19% -0.233 0.4526 -0.813
2 Archipelago 13 61.54 23.0 23.08% 0.097 0.7046 -0.214
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 663 42.99 23.37 48.11% -0.003 0.1164 0.004
2 Coastline 99 40.4 23.16 53.54% 0.783 0.7107 0.365
2 Fragment 44 54.55 20.75 38.64% -0.007
2 Heart 17 58.82 32.82 52.94% 0.573 0.416 1.005
2 Opposite Shores 198 42.64 29.92 60.61% -0.14 0.0116 0.258
2 Thematic 205 37.56 18.32 31.71% -0.423 0.0851 0.252
2 Top to Top 38 52.63 35.29 71.05% 0.984 0.9257 0.402
3 Archipelago 21 57.14 42.71 52.38% 0.09 -0.8614 0.512
3 Coastline 3 66.67 33.33 66.67% -0.556 -0.9664
3 Other 12 41.67 41.42 75.0% 0.763
3 Round (Default) 428 50.23 25.91 55.61% -0.898 -0.9893 -0.394
3 Sunrise 3 33.33 13.33 33.33%
3 Thematic 40 45.0 25.6 35.0% -0.814 -0.7935 -0.111
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0%
4 Coastline 4 75.0 20.5 50.0% -0.282
4 Leaf 2 50.0 23.5 50.0%
4 Other 3 33.33 21.33 66.67% 0.449 -0.262 0.272
4 Reverse Snake 1 0.0 0.0 0.0%
4 Thematic 29 58.62 29.31 37.93% 0.521 0.6443 -0.221
4 Trapezoid (Default) 124 45.97 25.6 61.29% 0.082 0.0788 -0.307
5 Other 19 26.32 13.47 42.11% 0.084 -0.4301 -0.566
6 Archipelago 2 0.0 21.0 50.0%
6 Other 5 40.0 25.8 80.0% 0.3 0.1959 -0.101
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 27 44.44 27.67 44.44% 0.07 0.3554 -0.061
6 Two Centers (Default) 20 35.0 22.55 50.0% -0.94 -0.407 -0.178
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.124

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 148 21.93 36.49% -0.516 -0.2652 0.126
Aid From Lesser Spirits 116 29.08 49.14% 0.782 0.7242 -0.49
All Things Weaken 160 23.02 35.0% -0.268 0.0664 -0.19
Attenuated Essence 78 22.14 35.9% -0.501 -0.4678 -0.687
Back Against the Wall 125 30.15 56.8% 0.21 0.2448 1.153
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 22.76 43.66% 0.383 0.6003 0.482
Burn Brightest Before the End 55 27.58 45.45% 0.129 0.1395 0.09
Disintegrating Ecosystem 141 22.94 43.26% -0.606 -0.262 0.352
Downward Spiral 159 27.5 52.83% 0.539 0.6565 1.229
Erosion of Will 159 23.19 34.59% -0.088 0.1866 -0.341
Intensifying Exploitation 80 26.4 50.0% -0.154 0.0569 0.561
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 65 30.49 69.23% 0.185 -0.3873 0.382
Memory Fades to Dust 168 23.32 44.05% -0.595 -0.3421 -0.246
Power Corrodes the Spirit 151 24.49 45.7% -0.008 0.196 -0.156
Promising Farmlands 154 25.27 43.51% 0.675 0.9289 0.765
Shattered Fragments of Power 59 25.93 38.98% 0.673 0.7474 0.911
Slow Dissolution of Will 70 22.89 42.86% 0.474 0.855 0.078
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 34 30.59 70.59% 0.629 -0.0448 -0.279
The Border of Life and Death 17 21.82 47.06% 0.376
Thriving Communities 168 24.85 49.4% -0.249 0.0322 0.049
Thriving Crops 26 29.81 61.54% 0.275 0.135 -0.112
Unnatural Proliferation 145 26.01 46.21% -0.645 -0.4417 0.676
Untended Land Crumbles 165 24.3 43.64% -0.456 -0.2657 0.04

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1032 44.13% 22.6 50.29% -0.188 0.8097 -0.492
B 1039 43.45% 24.13 50.63% -0.016 0.9064 -0.242
C 1119 45.4% 24.18 53.98% -0.095 0.6337 0.083
D 985 45.99% 23.04 48.02% -0.03 0.9295 -0.293
E 946 43.76% 23.34 49.47% -0.832 -0.0131 -0.241
F 885 45.31% 24.33 52.43% -0.081 0.8007 0.509
G 798 44.86% 25.31 54.26% 0.383 1.2086 -0.27
H 793 43.69% 23.72 50.95% 0.024 0.8634 0.086
East 492 45.93% 23.77 38.82% 0.793 1.6674 -0.184
Northeast 241 46.89% 25.07 40.66% 0.423 1.1755 -0.923
Northwest 224 37.95% 21.79 33.48% -0.715 0.177 0.396
Southeast 181 48.62% 21.45 33.15% -0.175 0.6644 0.571
Southwest 165 45.45% 17.99 29.7% -0.338 0.9666 -0.45
West 482 41.29% 18.45 28.22% -1.007 -0.0568 -1.302

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2 0.0% 38.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 60 37.29% 17.67 45.0% -0.91 -0.5638 -0.109
Skip Initial Invader Actions 108 19.63% 55.19 85.19% 1.079 0.4763 1.237
Start of Game Growth 149 29.05% 50.6 75.84% 0.492 -0.0121 1.542
Unlimited Undo 611 35.68% 19.95 35.35% 0.2 0.0929 -0.168
Using Tokens but Not Events 437 34.86% 21.34 53.55% -0.255 -0.285 -0.713

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2303 13.42 4.26%
II 1458 30.13 57.82%
III 1269 34.83 85.26%
IV 675 38.67 99.85%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.465 Win Model: 0.379
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3802 43.38% 21.25 44.56%
2 1203 44.43% 25.34 51.04%
3 458 49.13% 26.7 56.11%
4 164 48.17% 26.01 57.93%
5 20 20.0% 10.85 35.0%
6 58 39.66% 24.98 51.72%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 98
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1078
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 836
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 666
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1789
Lose: Invader deck ran out 17
Lose: Adversary condition 312
Win: Sacrifice victory 19
Lose: Blight pool ran out 844
Lose: Spirit destroyed 46

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-02 03:17:06 (Pacific Time)