Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 90 50.0% 21.49 -0.439 41.11% 0.017 0.4617
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 63 44.44% 23.73 4.8 46.03% 0.562 0.8695
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 43 58.14% 16.14 -4.034 11.63% -0.355 0.4203
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 20 25.0% 23.6 3.557 20.0% -0.271 0.6965
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 15 66.67% 26.27 -2.216 26.67% -0.918 0.5089
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 35 54.29% 43.23 1.511 40.0% -0.507 1.5896
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 120 36.67% 19.59 -4.895 44.17% -1.353 -1.1134
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 114 51.75% 22.43 -2.056 44.74% -0.453 -0.3376
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 75 54.67% 36.87 2.649 62.67% -0.225 -0.1161
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 45 62.22% 29.16 -2.274 35.56% -0.529 -0.3069
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 34 61.76% 35.38 -2.423 50.0% -0.582 -0.2932
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 6 83.33% 41.0 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 18 55.56% 33.72 -6.29 22.22% -0.708 0.7775
The Kingdom of England 0 1 96 33.33% 18.1 -4.824 36.46% -0.801 -0.4727
The Kingdom of England 1 3 56 42.86% 21.36 -2.144 35.71% -1.066 -0.7625
The Kingdom of England 2 4 32 62.5% 13.66 -8.814 9.38% -0.903 -0.175
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 57.69% 15.31 0.354 7.69% -0.816 0.3794
The Kingdom of England 4 7 26 26.92% 17.62 -7.555 19.23% -0.883 0.3342
The Kingdom of England 5 9 4 75.0% 29.0 3.042 0.0% -0.529 1.1429
The Kingdom of England 6 11 103 55.34% 17.44 27.887 3.88% 0.132 2.1927
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 61 44.26% 13.69 -5.123 22.95% -1.278 -0.7231
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 57 47.37% 15.4 -5.538 19.3% -0.913 -0.2307
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 41 48.78% 24.59 -7.469 24.39% -0.981 0.1212
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 35 37.14% 25.09 0.079 11.43% -0.803 0.5886
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 16 50.0% 28.44 3.519 25.0% -0.441 1.0255
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 100.0% 29.0 1.704 0.0% -0.143 0.9282
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 23 47.83% 48.91 0.0 30.43%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 115 40.87% 19.57 -2.8 40.87% -0.648 -0.402
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 81 41.98% 21.59 -0.046 37.04% -0.476 0.1543
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 68 55.88% 25.82 4.692 36.76% -0.123 0.3389
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 44 52.27% 26.89 -3.825 31.82% -0.945 -0.4795
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 34 52.94% 28.91 -5.011 17.65% -0.854 -0.0541
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 26 57.69% 38.08 -4.302 42.31% -0.969 -0.4043
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 78 55.13% 28.65 2.184 23.08% -1.254 -0.2865
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 109 31.19% 16.37 -3.484 41.28% -0.702 -0.4974
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 88 36.36% 19.59 0.069 38.64% -0.755 -0.7194
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 66 40.91% 19.0 -1.156 34.85% -0.228 -0.014
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 30 60.0% 25.77 5.659 36.67% 0.183 0.5425
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 75.0% 24.33 -11.241 33.33% -0.31 0.3879
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 13 76.92% 11.77 4.036 7.69% -0.0 0.7958
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 62 69.35% 29.15 -0.323 27.42% -0.806 0.3007
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 109 38.53% 22.94 -1.145 48.62% -0.404 -0.2342
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 50 40.0% 20.26 -6.377 34.0% -1.353 -0.513
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 37 64.86% 24.89 2.806 37.84% 0.053 0.272
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 17 35.29% 16.18 -6.21 23.53% -0.87 0.2257
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 17 29.41% 15.65 -9.791 17.65% -0.658 0.3179
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 17 41.18% 70.59 9.055 58.82% 0.068 1.7363

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2015 42.85 23.65 52.7% 0.542 0.5722 -0.499
1 Thematic 243 44.44 20.39 32.92% -0.061 0.3712 -0.904
2 Archipelago 9 55.56 26.44 22.22% -0.213
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 419 44.87 24.54 51.07% -0.082 -0.1312 0.059
2 Coastline 75 36.0 21.89 48.0% 0.134 0.0332 0.599
2 Fragment 21 66.67 28.19 57.14% -0.45 -0.8628 -0.032
2 Heart 12 58.33 28.25 41.67% 0.179 0.0897 0.397
2 Opposite Shores 130 43.85 32.11 62.31% 0.83 0.6505 0.246
2 Thematic 118 40.68 17.96 33.05% 0.268 0.4551 0.297
2 Top to Top 22 59.09 41.64 72.73% -0.602 -0.8017 0.185
3 Archipelago 2 50.0 29.5 50.0%
3 Other 8 50.0 51.63 87.5% 0.559 0.2248 0.621
3 Round (Default) 251 48.61 26.9 59.36% -0.315 -0.5815 -0.134
3 Sunrise 2 50.0 20.0 50.0%
3 Thematic 16 75.0 30.88 37.5% -0.339 -0.7851 0.058
4 Archipelago 4 50.0 36.25 100.0%
4 Coastline 2 100.0 27.0 100.0%
4 Leaf 1 0.0 47.0 100.0%
4 Other 2 50.0 15.0 50.0% 0.158 -0.5796 0.14
4 Thematic 21 57.14 28.48 28.57% -0.358 -0.1541 -0.189
4 Trapezoid (Default) 79 40.51 25.47 65.82% -0.412 -0.0719 0.198
5 Other 10 40.0 13.4 40.0% -0.241 -0.9626 -0.452
6 Other 2 50.0 30.5 100.0%
6 Star 5 40.0 16.0 60.0%
6 Thematic 22 50.0 26.23 40.91% -0.042
6 Two Centers (Default) 13 46.15 28.0 61.54% 0.172 0.2699 -0.136
7 Other 1 0.0 0.0 0.0% -0.228

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 92 24.33 41.3% -0.202 -0.0633 -0.116
Aid From Lesser Spirits 90 29.71 48.89% -1.05 -1.1091 -0.945
All Things Weaken 100 23.22 40.0% -0.536 -0.1809 -0.261
Attenuated Essence 37 24.32 45.95% -0.29 -0.179 -0.329
Back Against the Wall 84 30.9 55.95% 0.087 0.1628 0.948
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 28 25.11 46.43% 0.692 0.9031 0.343
Burn Brightest Before the End 25 24.32 40.0% 0.289 0.4092 -0.246
Disintegrating Ecosystem 78 25.4 51.28% -0.258 0.111 0.354
Downward Spiral 92 28.37 55.43% 1.068 1.265 0.621
Erosion of Will 101 22.74 30.69% 0.264 0.5316 -0.55
Intensifying Exploitation 45 26.27 53.33% 0.743 1.0128 1.104
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 41 33.98 78.05% -0.091 -0.6017 0.221
Memory Fades to Dust 105 22.94 43.81% 0.239 0.5506 -0.474
Power Corrodes the Spirit 93 26.7 52.69% 0.845 1.1395 0.42
Promising Farmlands 108 24.8 41.67% 0.01 0.3459 0.602
Shattered Fragments of Power 25 25.6 40.0% 0.349 0.458 0.838
Slow Dissolution of Will 28 19.75 42.86% -0.438 -0.0377 0.281
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 29.12 69.23% -0.346
The Border of Life and Death 9 12.11 22.22% -0.105
Thriving Communities 112 24.51 47.32% 0.065 0.3974 -0.327
Thriving Crops 14 25.57 57.14% 0.028 -0.0588 -0.123
Unnatural Proliferation 86 28.43 54.65% 0.134 0.2822 1.181
Untended Land Crumbles 124 24.81 44.35% -0.117 0.1896 0.325

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 658 42.1% 23.57 53.65% -0.435 0.4695 -0.605
B 641 42.12% 25.99 54.76% 0.21 1.0387 -0.097
C 750 45.33% 25.64 58.0% 0.25 0.9303 0.258
D 559 46.69% 24.34 52.95% 0.347 1.2003 -0.216
E 603 43.45% 24.61 52.74% 0.102 0.8037 -0.22
F 536 44.96% 25.74 56.16% 0.048 0.8295 0.596
G 483 45.96% 26.52 57.35% 0.24 1.0113 -0.144
H 479 45.82% 25.68 57.2% -0.666 0.102 0.561
East 274 48.91% 23.57 39.05% -0.27 0.5917 -0.338
Northeast 139 48.92% 25.01 40.29% -0.165 0.5819 -0.879
Northwest 116 39.66% 23.47 36.21% -0.398 0.4353 0.181
Southeast 104 55.77% 21.94 33.65% -0.01 0.7655 1.269
Southwest 94 47.87% 17.16 26.6% -0.51 0.8089 -0.186
West 253 44.27% 19.29 28.46% -0.616 0.3897 -1.191

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 1 0.0% 35.0 100.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 23 26.09% 15.13 43.48% -0.085 0.3556 -0.02
Skip Initial Invader Actions 83 21.69% 58.98 87.95% 0.739 0.1765 1.607
Start of Game Growth 100 27.0% 54.37 82.0% 0.314 -0.2243 1.151
Unlimited Undo 344 33.43% 19.36 37.5% -0.625 -0.584 -0.368
Using Tokens but Not Events 316 36.19% 22.46 56.96% -0.516 -0.5399 0.082

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1310 16.23 5.5%
II 957 30.54 62.8%
III 812 34.77 86.7%
IV 426 38.37 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.743 Win Model: 0.41
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2322 42.74% 22.96 49.57%
2 759 45.72% 26.45 53.1%
3 264 50.0% 27.78 59.85%
4 108 45.37% 26.69 61.11%
5 9 33.33% 10.56 33.33%
6 43 46.51% 25.16 51.16%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 72
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 702
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 596
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 424
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 942
Lose: Invader deck ran out 9
Lose: Adversary condition 206
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Blight pool ran out 516
Lose: Spirit destroyed 29

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-03-13 05:04:05 (Pacific Time)