Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 26.67% 25.93 60.0% -0.141 -0.219 0.0
Blitz 0 45 17.78% 32.69 53.33% -0.915 -0.7685 0.023
Dahan Insurrection 4 29 31.03% 35.38 48.28% -0.405 -0.6119 -0.088
Despicable Theft 2 7 42.86% 33.0 71.43% 0.151 0.8338 0.577
Elemental Invocation 1 15 26.67% 18.13 40.0% -0.879 -0.1478 -0.317
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 153 16.34% 43.91 64.71% 0.459 -0.1471 0.237
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2 50.0% 5.5 0.0% -1.063 -0.575 -0.27
Rituals of Terror 3 3 33.33% 29.0 66.67% -0.322 -0.2163 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 100.0% 47.33 66.67% 0.059 1.0505 0.385
Second Wave 0 93 30.43% 27.2 78.49% 0.308 0.3702 0.096
The Great River 3 11 45.45% 34.45 36.36% -1.022 0.326 -0.655
Varied Terrains 2 14 21.43% 15.14 28.57% -0.679 -0.1163 -0.532
Ward the Shores 2 6 33.33% 35.17 66.67% 0.015 1.2244 0.326

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2002 38.89% 29.18 62.09% 0.164 0.3736 -0.648
1 Thematic 58 40.35% 28.79 51.72% -0.047 0.5518 -0.286
2 Archipelago 5 40.0% 40.4 80.0% 0.17 0.5267 0.239
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 570 35.98% 30.62 67.37% 0.137 0.2974 -0.25
2 Coastline 80 43.75% 31.93 72.5% 0.462 0.5228 0.34
2 Fragment 21 52.38% 43.24 90.48% 1.259 1.1952 1.303
2 Heart 23 47.83% 51.61 86.96% 1.146 0.9084 1.823
2 Opposite Shores 123 27.64% 29.89 69.92% 0.032 0.1658 -1.406
2 Thematic 37 19.44% 18.86 43.24% -0.205 0.431 0.003
2 Top to Top 43 34.88% 35.02 60.47% 0.385 0.4257 0.369
3 Archipelago 1 0.0% 50.0 100.0% 0.237 -0.8495 0.0
3 Coastline 9 44.44% 37.44 66.67% -0.095 -0.5927 0.403
3 Other 24 54.17% 15.46 41.67% -1.328 -1.2187 -0.696
3 Round (Default) 392 36.83% 31.84 70.15% 0.191 0.15 -0.451
3 Sunrise 4 0.0% 26.25 100.0% 0.718 0.9144 0.0
3 Thematic 11 45.45% 8.64 18.18% -1.406 -1.3696 -0.327
4 Archipelago 6 66.67% 40.33 66.67% -0.105 -0.3197 0.0
4 Leaf 5 80.0% 48.6 100.0% 0.536 0.161 0.0
4 Other 19 36.84% 25.74 78.95% 0.193 -0.6567 0.379
4 Thematic 13 69.23% 25.15 23.08% -0.493 -0.5106 -0.213
4 Trapezoid (Default) 148 29.05% 29.2 64.19% -0.334 -0.5205 -0.387
5 Archipelago 1 0.0% 25.0 100.0% 0.124 -1.1015 0.0
5 Other 21 28.57% 24.43 76.19% 0.304 -0.2042 0.225
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 31.0 100.0% 0.267 -0.0631 0.0
6 Archipelago 3 0.0% 18.0 66.67% -0.064 -0.3694 0.0
6 Other 17 17.65% 25.65 70.59% -0.211 -0.6051 0.08
6 Star 15 26.67% 16.33 53.33% -0.574 -0.0983 -0.768
6 Thematic 63 14.29% 35.62 55.56% -0.491 -0.0927 0.86
6 Two Centers (Default) 52 15.38% 27.25 53.85% -0.804 -0.7604 -1.088
7 Archipelago 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.823 -1.4119 0.0
7 Other 2 50.0% 41.5 100.0% 0.666 -0.1072 0.487

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 56 33.77 53.57% 0.048 0.3192 0.47
Aid From Lesser Spirits 60 34.78 66.67% 0.477 0.5158 0.915
All Things Weaken 58 37.66 65.52% 0.649 1.1096 0.537
Attenuated Essence 52 31.9 50.0% -0.242 -0.0359 0.501
Back Against the Wall 61 41.43 67.21% 0.564 0.726 0.572
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 71 32.3 45.07% -0.198 0.2162 0.367
Burn Brightest Before the End 67 35.69 59.7% 0.152 0.4569 0.544
Disintegrating Ecosystem 75 36.53 54.67% -0.001 0.5261 0.887
Downward Spiral 85 35.11 61.18% 0.18 0.533 0.689
Erosion of Will 56 33.5 46.43% -0.137 0.2708 0.115
Intensifying Exploitation 79 31.75 54.43% 0.15 0.5371 0.682
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 29 37.93 75.86% 1.158 0.6329 0.911
Memory Fades to Dust 72 31.22 63.89% 0.2 0.6814 0.768
Power Corrodes the Spirit 73 32.4 50.68% -0.049 0.2556 0.573
Promising Farmlands 68 31.0 51.47% -0.131 0.4554 -0.208
Shattered Fragments of Power 64 34.66 60.94% 0.002 0.1807 -0.011
Slow Dissolution of Will 68 36.69 58.82% 0.197 0.7308 0.391
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 27 30.3 74.07% 0.279 -0.3985 -0.472
The Border of Life and Death 20 30.85 60.0% 0.305 0.1754 0.371
Thriving Communities 80 28.45 45.0% -0.341 0.1525 -0.051
Thriving Crops 33 33.64 63.64% 0.268 0.3562 0.526
Unnatural Proliferation 64 38.08 54.69% 0.197 0.4936 0.674
Untended Land Crumbles 65 36.45 66.15% 0.684 1.0419 0.946

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 865 36.7% 28.97 65.43% 0.248 1.0883 -0.22
B 927 35.57% 30.21 65.8% 0.405 1.1834 0.17
C 961 33.4% 30.27 66.39% 0.244 0.8983 0.053
D 724 35.68% 27.29 65.06% 0.085 0.8839 -0.445
E 826 34.75% 30.89 64.89% 0.551 1.1793 0.498
F 743 36.79% 29.63 64.87% 0.088 0.8075 0.012
G 649 36.67% 29.85 63.33% 0.191 0.933 -0.204
H 684 32.84% 31.83 69.74% 0.576 1.2244 0.088
East 142 25.71% 28.23 47.18% -1.639 -1.0345 -0.312
Northeast 104 24.04% 30.7 50.0% -0.531 0.3502 0.245
Northwest 97 22.68% 29.43 46.39% -0.028 0.6448 0.083
Southeast 87 21.18% 33.7 54.02% 0.365 1.0011 0.58
Southwest 90 24.72% 32.83 56.67% 0.202 1.3665 -0.019
West 141 29.29% 27.45 45.39% -0.745 0.219 -0.539

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 18.1 70.0% -0.688 0.1949 0.0
Skip Initial Invader Actions 81 6.67% 46.38 70.37% 1.643 1.1076 0.904
Start of Game Growth 156 23.33% 43.12 62.18% 0.068 -0.2623 0.296
Unlimited Undo 368 35.1% 29.69 57.88% -0.37 -0.3915 0.34
Using Tokens but Not Events 252 10.74% 22.73 74.21% -0.051 -0.105 -0.601

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 108 100.0% 24.59 100.0% -0.177 -0.3361 -0.441
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 19 100.0% 22.68 100.0% 0.028 0.1493 -0.375
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 53 100.0% 23.53 100.0% 0.056 -0.1118 -0.385
Downpour Drenches the World 66 100.0% 35.95 100.0% 0.601 0.7802 1.107
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 608 100.0% 34.53 100.0% 0.65 -0.0715 0.838
Eyes Watch From the Trees 92 100.0% 26.47 100.0% -0.09 -0.6793 -0.38
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 57 100.0% 37.68 100.0% 0.533 0.0617 0.502
Finder of Paths Unseen 33 100.0% 29.67 100.0% -0.031 0.663 -0.712
Fractured Days Split the Sky 35 100.0% 27.26 100.0% 0.642 1.3267 -0.308
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 54 100.0% 26.91 100.0% -0.569 -0.6703 -0.241
Heart of the Wildfire 37 100.0% 25.43 100.0% -0.709 -0.4644 0.286
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 182 100.0% 35.75 100.0% 0.323 -0.1268 0.289
Lightning's Swift Strike 13 876.92% 16.31 546.15% -0.387 -0.1837 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 66 31.82% 35.95 69.7% 0.307 -0.3903 0.413
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 25 8.0% 19.76 48.0% -0.826 -1.0656 0.561
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 50 34.0% 29.5 50.0% -0.24 -0.3995 0.219
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 198 100.0% 33.74 100.0% 0.168 0.0227 0.533
Many Minds Move as One 197 100.0% 25.9 100.0% 0.029 -0.1918 -0.147
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 88 100.0% 29.56 100.0% 0.26 0.2512 -0.557
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 46 100.0% 29.85 100.0% 0.776 0.6346 0.416
River Surges in Sunlight 39 274.36% 22.62 189.74% 0.093 0.0958 -0.061
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 45 20.0% 24.56 60.0% -0.196 0.0736 -0.076
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 54 40.74% 32.69 68.52% 0.343 0.214 0.769
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 101 100.0% 33.5 100.0% 0.174 -0.0399 -0.278
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5 920.0% 35.4 480.0% 0.604 1.0394 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 18 44.44% 34.22 72.22% 0.087 0.0863 0.444
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 22 27.27% 27.82 72.73% 0.139 0.1306 0.222
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 17 58.82% 20.47 58.82% -0.422 -0.4939 -0.21
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 9 11.11% 31.0 88.89% 0.66 0.7188 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 60 100.0% 22.38 100.0% -0.346 0.061 -0.068
Shroud of Silent Mist 41 100.0% 18.17 100.0% -0.622 -0.3073 -0.464
Starlight Seeks its Form 100 100.0% 32.72 100.0% 0.235 -0.038 0.072
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 102 100.0% 29.59 100.0% -0.185 -0.6795 -0.688
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 44 100.0% 31.25 100.0% 0.395 0.4255 0.654
Thunderspeaker 54 423.64% 24.78 283.33% -0.535 -0.554 -0.745
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 275 35.04% 29.97 64.0% -0.357 -0.4201 0.301
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 39 100.0% 20.46 100.0% -0.477 -0.4159 -0.182
Vital Strength of the Earth 20 265.0% 18.45 245.0% 0.39 0.9431 0.0
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 46 41.3% 30.76 58.7% -0.129 0.1274 -0.969
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 16 62.5% 17.56 37.5% -0.621 0.2761 0.0
Volcano Looming High 52 100.0% 24.5 100.0% -0.581 -0.5713 -0.597

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Prey on the Builders 92.12%
Teeth Gleam from Darkness 94.92%
Terrifying Chase 76.65%
Too Near the Jungle 93.26%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1020 21.03 7.94%
II 1307 31.04 74.06%
III 1179 34.74 93.3%
IV 264 38.02 99.24%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 81
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1088
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 960
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 261
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 851
Lose: Invader deck ran out 12
Lose: Adversary condition 172
Win: Sacrifice victory 3
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 18
Lose: Blight pool ran out 291
Lose: Spirit destroyed 12

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.369 Win Model: -0.196

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.041 Win Model: 0.006
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 2069 38.91% 29.09 61.62%
2 900 35.71% 31.36 68.11%
3 441 37.27% 30.57 68.25%
4 187 35.29% 29.46 64.17%
5 22 22.73% 23.68 72.73%
6 151 16.56% 29.48 56.95%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)