Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 59 28.81% 30.98 98.31% 0.357 -0.09 0.627
Blitz 0 43 31.71% 42.14 76.74% -0.801 -0.3447 0.692
Dahan Insurrection 4 477 34.17% 64.34 73.17% 0.224 0.244 0.519
Despicable Theft 2 53 51.92% 36.57 84.91% -0.288 0.2242 0.907
Elemental Invocation 1 26 38.46% 36.23 80.77% -0.18 0.5194 -0.137
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 438 13.24% 55.41 79.22% 0.053 0.0938 0.033
Powers Long Forgotten 1 81 41.98% 36.95 87.65% 0.396 0.958 -0.023
Rituals of Terror 3 81 50.0% 81.47 87.65% 1.413 1.1255 1.97
Second Wave 0 241 27.19% 36.98 87.55% 0.002 0.4636 0.275
The Great River 3 33 59.38% 34.91 51.52% -1.168 0.5986 0.082
Varied Terrains 2 57 71.93% 33.91 63.16% -0.353 0.4753 -0.489
Ward the Shores 2 35 45.45% 36.23 71.43% -0.263 0.4808 -0.081

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 4150 53.1% 39.03 72.41% 0.274 0.8237 0.492
1 Thematic 136 58.82% 46.22 64.71% 0.412 1.4099 0.852
2 Archipelago 9 44.44% 69.89 77.78% 0.309 0.9264 -0.029
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1601 42.47% 44.59 80.7% 0.661 1.071 0.682
2 Coastline 345 41.74% 43.58 84.64% 0.758 0.894 1.09
2 Fragment 38 42.11% 42.63 68.42% 0.048 0.0429 0.758
2 Heart 35 77.14% 43.43 48.57% -0.786 -0.3114 -0.529
2 Opposite Shores 439 49.09% 41.25 70.39% 0.6 0.9534 -0.253
2 Thematic 122 52.46% 59.54 62.3% 0.395 1.3248 0.099
2 Top to Top 113 54.87% 44.28 76.11% 0.753 0.8795 0.413
3 Archipelago 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0% 0.095 0.2736 0.097
3 Coastline 9 11.11% 37.44 66.67% -0.378 -0.7947 -0.222
3 Other 62 19.35% 29.44 90.32% 0.113 -0.6058 1.145
3 Round (Default) 966 47.0% 42.59 76.4% -0.266 -0.0727 0.016
3 Sunrise 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
3 Thematic 37 35.14% 56.24 78.38% -0.339 -0.3238 0.75
4 Archipelago 9 22.22% 49.22 77.78% 0.039 -0.3808 -0.18
4 Coastline 7 28.57% 47.14 85.71% 0.0 -0.0727 0.082
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 52.25 75.0% 0.0 -0.0965 -0.424
4 Other 17 41.18% 37.29 100.0% 0.167 -0.449 0.602
4 Snake 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0% -0.756 -0.1906 0.0
4 Thematic 61 32.79% 51.93 62.3% -1.006 -0.7235 -0.991
4 Trapezoid (Default) 587 42.41% 52.61 78.19% -0.68 -0.4924 -0.294
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 71.25 100.0% 0.29 -0.0941 0.334
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 68.0 100.0% 0.297 0.4046 0.351
5 Other 59 39.66% 42.46 84.75% 0.661 0.0301 0.337
5 Thematic 11 54.55% 59.55 36.36% -0.439 -1.4138 -1.664
6 Archipelago 7 14.29% 31.71 85.71% -0.287 -0.3577 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.9494 0.0
6 Other 57 42.11% 42.68 75.44% -0.493 -0.735 -0.743
6 Star 15 53.33% 44.53 66.67% 0.0 0.5458 -1.042
6 Thematic 108 21.3% 43.37 79.63% -0.782 -0.7365 -1.357
6 Two Centers (Default) 110 37.04% 47.53 89.09% 0.364 0.8272 0.253
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 101.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.221 -0.661
7 Other 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.3606 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 315 41.13 60.0% -1.143 0.5874 -0.593
Aid From Lesser Spirits 312 44.53 63.46% -0.557 1.0185 -0.574
All Things Weaken 323 42.72 60.68% -0.195 1.6828 -0.412
Attenuated Essence 1 0.0 0.0% -0.597 0.2574 -0.624
Back Against the Wall 287 41.55 59.23% -0.82 0.8164 -0.738
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 35.0 0.0% -0.431 0.5778 -0.582
Disintegrating Ecosystem 277 36.66 55.96% -1.031 0.8122 -0.657
Downward Spiral 353 40.68 60.62% -0.896 0.8025 -0.511
Erosion of Will 305 39.07 52.46% -1.54 0.3606 -1.173
Intensifying Exploitation 1 0.0 0.0% -0.512 0.3768 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 158 48.82 85.44% 0.194 0.6946 0.36
Memory Fades to Dust 330 38.61 58.79% -1.393 0.4831 -0.495
Power Corrodes the Spirit 302 41.41 58.61% -1.196 0.5091 -0.776
Promising Farmlands 323 39.31 51.39% -1.53 0.3456 -0.89
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 35.0 0.0% -0.431 0.7249 -0.582
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 0.0 0.0% -0.596 0.8745 -0.624
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 94 54.45 89.36% 0.807 1.0171 0.759
Thriving Communities 304 39.59 53.29% -0.948 0.9229 -0.787
Thriving Crops 1 49.0 100.0% 0.096 1.0512 0.0
Unnatural Proliferation 329 41.91 59.88% -1.142 0.6119 -0.607
Untended Land Crumbles 316 40.26 55.06% -1.14 0.6742 -0.643

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3077 46.61% 43.58 77.41% 0.223 1.0008 0.545
B 2221 45.8% 43.71 76.59% 0.042 0.7453 0.323
C 2460 46.52% 43.61 76.87% 0.229 0.7562 0.114
D 1941 45.62% 42.2 76.61% 0.283 1.0179 0.34
E 1883 46.91% 43.33 77.0% 0.55 1.1339 0.221
F 1639 46.71% 43.31 76.45% -0.191 0.5164 0.022
G 1502 44.01% 43.29 76.5% 0.582 1.2237 0.286
H 1524 44.98% 43.84 78.81% 0.079 0.7239 0.422
East 413 39.71% 52.6 68.77% -0.144 0.4473 -0.012
Northeast 251 33.47% 48.58 66.53% -0.969 -0.2919 -1.372
Northwest 207 34.3% 48.08 68.12% -0.369 0.0687 0.057
Southeast 191 29.84% 47.16 74.35% 0.234 0.8974 -0.629
Southwest 162 29.63% 41.73 77.16% -0.44 0.7314 -0.339
West 336 41.67% 50.7 69.05% -0.071 0.7469 -0.017

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 126 0.0% 29.2 65.08% -2.451 -0.3752 -1.01
Not Using Events or Tokens 151 34.68% 26.73 74.17% -0.127 0.0447 -1.582
Skip Initial Invader Actions 253 5.0% 52.21 91.7% 0.961 -0.0976 1.4
Start of Game Growth 319 11.28% 50.87 90.91% 1.12 0.6983 1.062
Unlimited Undo 992 43.8% 44.11 83.37% 0.038 -0.3772 0.698
Using Tokens but Not Events 853 30.9% 40.77 84.53% -0.119 -0.0039 0.141

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 328 100.0% 44.31 100.0% 0.635 0.4557 0.676
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 85 100.0% 36.58 100.0% -0.492 -0.4781 -1.197
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 100 100.0% 38.24 100.0% 0.422 0.1761 -0.598
Downpour Drenches the World 640 100.0% 50.24 100.0% -0.01 0.3775 0.166
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 11 100.0% 30.27 100.0% -0.291 -0.0561 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 368 100.0% 46.94 100.0% 0.281 -0.1925 0.345
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 150 100.0% 36.09 100.0% 0.094 -0.3524 -0.024
Finder of Paths Unseen 254 100.0% 43.04 100.0% -0.312 0.0515 0.378
Fractured Days Split the Sky 143 100.0% 54.89 100.0% -0.151 -0.0477 0.567
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 310 100.0% 53.8 100.0% 0.449 0.3841 -0.004
Heart of the Wildfire 91 100.0% 32.01 100.0% -0.406 -0.1471 -0.897
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 421 100.0% 44.98 100.0% 0.454 -0.1287 0.154
Lightning's Swift Strike 122 527.89% 41.48 331.15% -0.174 0.094 0.668
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 272 43.49% 36.7 76.1% 0.236 -0.5779 -0.766
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 186 42.68% 50.75 84.95% 0.791 0.249 0.443
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 784 51.15% 55.06 75.89% 0.752 0.274 0.466
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 257 100.0% 41.97 100.0% -0.394 -0.5149 0.001
Many Minds Move as One 90 100.0% 42.14 100.0% 0.822 0.1993 0.967
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 795 100.0% 47.83 100.0% 0.369 0.2411 0.059
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 152 100.0% 39.03 100.0% 0.301 0.2181 -0.475
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 168 100.0% 47.05 100.0% 0.566 0.3931 -0.267
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 13 1171.43% 30.0 669.23% -0.96 -0.5675 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 159 39.1% 36.84 78.62% -0.593 -0.496 0.697
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 174 41.76% 41.7 82.76% -0.235 -0.1599 0.491
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 30 37.93% 31.0 73.33% -0.679 -0.7151 -0.176
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 21 38.1% 33.33 90.48% 0.121 0.1246 0.119
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 185 100.54% 47.75 100.0% 0.11 -0.0899 0.903
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 1 0.0% 23.0 100.0% 0.084 0.3786 0.0
Shifting Memory of Ages 110 100.0% 42.18 100.0% -0.033 0.1959 -0.01
Shroud of Silent Mist 96 100.0% 36.91 100.0% -1.089 -0.9055 -0.865
Starlight Seeks its Form 484 100.0% 53.96 100.0% 0.415 0.2589 0.143
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 234 100.0% 43.21 100.0% 0.219 -0.0439 -0.19
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 195 100.0% 44.46 100.0% 0.703 0.766 0.297
Thunderspeaker 583 100.34% 44.09 100.0% -0.266 -0.3422 -0.254
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 2 0.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.122 0.3266 0.0
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 60 100.0% 37.58 100.0% -0.379 -0.6414 0.09
Vital Strength of the Earth 48 516.98% 24.04 254.17% -0.736 0.0177 -0.931
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 328 35.91% 38.75 78.96% -0.263 0.3156 -0.505
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 22 36.36% 29.18 77.27% -0.058 1.0922 -0.397
Volcano Looming High 158 100.0% 42.7 100.0% -0.281 -0.2845 0.237

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 87.46%
Flash Floods 93.08%
River's Bounty 97.72%
Wash Away 93.25%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2137 22.63 37.34%
II 4526 31.12 83.12%
III 1992 34.7 92.27%
IV 477 37.97 98.95%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 797
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1759
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 3452
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 448
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 39
Lose: Invader deck ran out 105
Lose: Adversary condition 744
Win: Sacrifice victory 40
Lose: Scenario condition 80
Win: Scenario condition 374
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1230
Lose: Spirit destroyed 64

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.753 Win Model: -0.158

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.179 Win Model: 0.182
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 4331 53.33% 39.73 72.18%
2 2693 44.5% 43.92 78.05%
3 1063 45.22% 42.57 76.86%
4 673 41.12% 52.12 77.71%
5 68 43.28% 43.28 76.47%
6 304 32.56% 45.12 82.24%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)