Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 81 28.4% 30.26 91.36% 0.448 0.1921 0.686
Blitz 0 81 30.38% 32.85 64.2% -0.298 -0.1003 0.36
Dahan Insurrection 4 675 30.81% 58.47 68.74% 0.368 -0.0748 0.736
Despicable Theft 2 75 47.3% 32.61 76.0% -0.243 0.5691 0.201
Elemental Invocation 1 41 29.27% 33.22 82.93% 0.301 1.0042 -0.154
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 569 15.11% 53.27 76.63% 0.636 -0.0087 0.405
Powers Long Forgotten 1 118 39.83% 31.47 76.27% -0.401 0.2343 0.028
Rituals of Terror 3 120 49.58% 73.51 81.67% 1.119 1.2198 2.351
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 7 28.57% 28.71 71.43% 0.842 1.8516 -0.481
Second Wave 0 344 29.39% 36.61 83.43% 0.477 0.5433 -0.051
The Great River 3 52 43.14% 25.85 36.54% -1.886 -0.6688 -0.947
Varied Terrains 2 80 67.5% 34.08 60.0% -0.4 0.2231 -0.276
Ward the Shores 2 50 37.5% 29.7 60.0% -1.415 -0.3303 -0.069

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5726 52.48% 35.47 66.1% 0.007 0.0609 0.783
1 Thematic 184 54.64% 41.43 57.07% -0.198 0.2793 0.979
2 Archipelago 18 22.22% 40.83 61.11% -0.172 -0.0676 -0.329
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2368 40.87% 39.65 73.65% 0.229 0.3109 0.865
2 Coastline 512 37.37% 39.03 77.34% 0.183 0.0286 1.06
2 Fragment 54 40.74% 39.46 70.37% 1.172 0.9224 1.038
2 Heart 49 65.31% 38.63 51.02% -0.719 -1.006 -0.186
2 Opposite Shores 701 49.14% 36.8 61.63% -0.057 -0.0337 -0.102
2 Thematic 172 45.93% 50.47 54.65% -0.552 -0.1484 0.044
2 Top to Top 161 46.58% 40.07 68.94% 0.183 0.0172 0.291
3 Archipelago 10 70.0% 100.3 100.0% 1.89 0.341 0.729
3 Coastline 20 15.0% 26.25 50.0% 0.172 -0.342 -0.037
3 Other 103 18.45% 28.05 79.61% 0.51 1.0511 1.666
3 Round (Default) 1480 44.43% 40.1 71.22% 0.197 0.0812 0.053
3 Sunrise 2 0.0% 18.5 50.0% -0.369 -0.0887 -0.479
3 Thematic 54 33.33% 49.63 70.37% 0.226 0.3062 0.196
4 Archipelago 15 33.33% 47.13 73.33% -0.077 -0.7511 0.096
4 Coastline 9 33.33% 40.56 66.67% -0.421 -0.1902 0.45
4 Leaf 5 60.0% 41.8 60.0% -0.485 -0.8285 -0.488
4 Other 25 48.0% 32.0 80.0% -0.07 -1.1541 0.424
4 Snake 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0% 0.0 -0.3465 0.0
4 Thematic 89 30.34% 45.89 56.18% -0.341 -0.6036 -0.684
4 Trapezoid (Default) 878 40.88% 46.3 70.39% 0.09 0.0073 -0.562
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 71.25 100.0% 0.0 -0.9161 0.375
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 68.0 100.0% 0.539 -0.1128 0.389
5 Other 81 34.62% 35.28 74.07% 0.017 -0.2674 -0.082
5 Thematic 14 50.0% 54.21 35.71% -0.274 -0.368 -1.691
6 Archipelago 13 15.38% 23.0 61.54% -0.874 -0.7228 0.0
6 Coastline 3 0.0% 14.0 66.67% -0.096 -0.8973 -0.335
6 Other 87 40.23% 41.74 78.16% 0.33 0.0972 -0.45
6 Star 32 53.13% 35.97 71.88% 0.663 0.6502 -1.294
6 Thematic 157 22.93% 37.53 68.15% -0.5 -0.0795 -1.411
6 Two Centers (Default) 174 30.23% 39.83 77.01% -0.575 -0.4711 -0.729
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 101.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.0189 -0.647
7 Other 4 0.0% 22.0 50.0% -0.613 -1.2254 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 397 39.18 57.93% 0.128 0.3705 -0.149
Aid From Lesser Spirits 385 43.78 62.86% 0.294 0.2165 -0.02
All Things Weaken 419 40.44 58.0% -0.096 0.2967 0.08
Attenuated Essence 61 31.1 42.62% -0.164 -0.0571 -0.363
Back Against the Wall 357 40.72 60.22% 0.646 0.7032 -0.039
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 72 29.32 44.44% -0.333 -0.1309 -0.809
Burn Brightest Before the End 67 33.49 47.76% 0.044 0.2539 -0.786
Disintegrating Ecosystem 365 34.59 50.68% -0.576 -0.1525 -0.123
Downward Spiral 458 37.92 56.77% -0.273 -0.038 0.086
Erosion of Will 383 38.19 50.13% -0.28 0.0296 -0.455
Intensifying Exploitation 87 32.47 41.38% -0.098 0.1891 -0.651
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 195 46.51 81.54% 0.568 0.0737 0.856
Memory Fades to Dust 453 37.42 56.29% 0.159 0.495 0.085
Power Corrodes the Spirit 386 38.45 54.4% -0.377 -0.157 -0.255
Promising Farmlands 421 37.81 50.59% -0.009 0.4444 -0.241
Shattered Fragments of Power 76 36.57 56.58% 0.328 0.3789 0.106
Slow Dissolution of Will 70 28.87 41.43% -0.192 0.2072 -1.216
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 122 53.42 83.61% 0.894 0.1829 1.005
The Border of Life and Death 22 28.64 54.55% 0.13 -0.2059 -0.698
Thriving Communities 378 37.07 49.47% -0.91 -0.5468 -0.383
Thriving Crops 42 31.76 61.9% 0.229 0.0316 -0.517
Unnatural Proliferation 412 39.88 56.55% -0.347 -0.1324 -0.058
Untended Land Crumbles 410 37.95 52.44% -0.268 0.0137 -0.109

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 4510 44.43% 39.08 69.69% 0.266 1.0061 0.424
B 3239 43.64% 39.5 70.33% 0.064 0.7894 0.326
C 3648 44.03% 39.11 69.41% 0.084 0.6664 0.103
D 2901 44.04% 37.86 69.77% 0.223 0.9342 0.285
E 2829 44.08% 39.55 71.09% 0.414 0.9798 0.317
F 2433 44.41% 38.81 69.95% 0.018 0.6887 0.189
G 2268 42.22% 39.42 70.81% 0.243 0.8951 0.35
H 2325 43.77% 39.53 71.48% 0.341 0.9114 0.504
East 587 37.65% 45.78 60.48% -0.149 0.3895 0.081
Northeast 366 32.79% 42.46 59.02% -0.301 0.3334 -1.028
Northwest 287 32.06% 42.0 61.67% -0.765 0.0436 -0.455
Southeast 272 29.41% 40.92 63.97% -0.68 0.0255 -0.682
Southwest 236 29.66% 36.12 64.83% -0.201 0.7885 -0.471
West 473 37.08% 44.28 61.31% 0.458 1.3617 -0.012

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 179 0.0% 23.54 56.98% -1.002 -0.2254 -0.422
Not Using Events or Tokens 271 39.91% 24.65 59.41% -0.682 -0.3032 -1.751
Skip Initial Invader Actions 349 4.12% 49.04 89.68% 1.624 1.0064 2.384
Start of Game Growth 472 11.88% 46.81 84.32% -0.453 -0.8016 -0.307
Unlimited Undo 1406 40.57% 40.64 76.24% 0.173 0.166 0.524
Using Tokens but Not Events 1324 30.17% 36.94 75.98% 0.043 0.033 -0.132

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 514 100.0% 38.91 100.0% -0.197 -0.3447 0.082
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 122 100.0% 31.35 100.0% -0.795 -0.6639 -0.92
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 175 100.0% 32.44 100.0% -0.092 -0.2366 -0.244
Downpour Drenches the World 848 100.0% 44.51 100.0% -0.728 -0.5491 -0.001
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 320 100.0% 34.45 100.0% 0.5 -0.265 -0.291
Eyes Watch From the Trees 550 100.0% 43.2 100.0% 0.744 0.155 0.466
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 245 100.0% 34.15 100.0% 0.247 -0.2499 0.287
Finder of Paths Unseen 356 100.0% 38.33 100.0% -0.087 0.5772 0.393
Fractured Days Split the Sky 209 100.0% 46.3 100.0% -0.057 0.5294 0.375
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 385 100.0% 49.22 100.0% -0.134 -0.2286 0.047
Heart of the Wildfire 151 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.277 -0.0355 -0.829
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 671 100.0% 41.45 100.0% 0.306 -0.1364 0.311
Lightning's Swift Strike 173 573.89% 38.39 398.84% 0.254 0.437 0.707
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 341 41.07% 34.34 73.02% -0.102 -0.589 -0.723
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 266 39.67% 45.33 74.06% 0.104 -0.0637 0.745
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1135 45.5% 48.25 68.63% 0.683 0.5695 0.476
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 374 100.0% 37.59 100.0% -0.063 -0.1953 0.223
Many Minds Move as One 149 100.0% 34.99 100.0% -0.355 -0.5764 0.22
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1166 100.0% 42.42 100.0% 0.072 0.0299 0.211
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 258 100.0% 32.62 100.0% -0.216 -0.394 -0.829
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 262 100.0% 42.45 100.0% 0.372 0.1348 0.099
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 25 918.92% 20.4 548.0% -1.446 -0.9159 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 200 35.2% 37.41 79.0% 0.408 0.333 0.627
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 211 38.54% 39.67 80.09% 0.579 0.4737 0.591
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 54 38.46% 27.37 59.26% -0.437 -0.4558 -0.053
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 28 35.71% 29.11 78.57% -0.223 -0.0462 0.076
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 240 120.0% 44.43 112.92% 0.127 -0.0633 0.909
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 84 42.86% 34.3 63.1% 0.562 0.1813 0.078
Shifting Memory of Ages 169 100.0% 37.09 100.0% -0.168 0.1851 -0.172
Shroud of Silent Mist 146 100.0% 33.34 100.0% 0.023 0.273 -0.618
Starlight Seeks its Form 779 100.0% 47.61 100.0% 0.816 0.5552 0.354
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 348 100.0% 41.59 100.0% 0.746 0.269 0.017
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 273 100.0% 40.35 100.0% 0.149 0.2119 0.317
Thunderspeaker 751 112.78% 40.66 109.05% -0.044 -0.0775 -0.12
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 146 34.25% 27.86 53.42% -0.217 -0.2563 -0.42
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 113 100.0% 33.19 100.0% -0.345 -0.2524 -0.115
Vital Strength of the Earth 92 416.16% 22.36 232.61% -0.731 -0.206 -1.486
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 439 33.33% 36.59 74.72% -0.047 0.2132 -0.237
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 37 32.43% 27.35 70.27% 0.267 1.0429 -0.368
Volcano Looming High 238 100.0% 38.66 100.0% -0.164 -0.2073 0.281

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 88.14%
Flash Floods 93.04%
River's Bounty 97.77%
Wash Away 93.32%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3886 20.4 26.94%
II 6016 31.01 81.78%
III 2683 34.76 92.28%
IV 626 38.07 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1046
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2381
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4502
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 590
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1179
Lose: Invader deck ran out 128
Lose: Adversary condition 1022
Win: Sacrifice victory 49
Lose: Scenario condition 104
Win: Scenario condition 494
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1630
Lose: Spirit destroyed 86

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.229 Win Model: -0.146

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.247 Win Model: 0.049
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 5979 52.52% 36.03 65.73%
2 4018 42.42% 39.15 70.98%
3 1646 42.3% 39.73 71.2%
4 1008 39.86% 45.85 69.44%
5 91 40.91% 36.43 69.23%
6 469 30.04% 38.97 73.56%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)