Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 35 25.71% 31.2 100.0% 1.288 1.0857 0.716
Blitz 0 12 20.0% 29.83 91.67% 0.044 0.3012 0.604
Dahan Insurrection 4 164 34.15% 61.32 72.56% 0.133 0.5458 0.449
Despicable Theft 2 17 31.25% 39.29 100.0% 0.94 1.3859 0.542
Elemental Invocation 1 4 25.0% 27.25 75.0% -0.406 0.0794 0.0
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 189 15.87% 50.61 71.43% -0.38 -0.0746 -0.466
Powers Long Forgotten 1 27 48.15% 35.11 96.3% 0.759 0.9406 0.398
Rituals of Terror 3 37 54.05% 81.08 81.08% 1.786 1.9069 1.252
Second Wave 0 57 40.35% 32.33 82.46% -0.385 0.1809 0.569
The Great River 3 14 71.43% 30.14 50.0% -1.625 -0.2277 0.0
Varied Terrains 2 29 51.72% 36.03 75.86% -0.182 0.3436 -0.449
Ward the Shores 2 8 25.0% 33.38 100.0% 0.521 1.6827 0.0

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1862 50.81% 39.09 74.33% 0.11 1.1262 0.018
1 Thematic 46 63.04% 41.26 71.74% 0.633 1.8055 0.377
2 Archipelago 5 80.0% 83.6 60.0% -0.018 0.9658 -0.173
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 645 45.17% 42.65 78.14% 0.019 0.7705 -0.055
2 Coastline 114 40.35% 41.49 85.96% 0.738 1.3407 1.153
2 Fragment 24 33.33% 50.0 79.17% 0.417 0.8651 0.693
2 Heart 7 42.86% 54.57 100.0% 1.093 1.631 1.059
2 Opposite Shores 183 46.99% 36.3 62.84% -0.573 0.4189 -0.76
2 Thematic 33 48.48% 61.21 72.73% 0.462 1.1604 -0.023
2 Top to Top 49 48.98% 43.12 77.55% -0.301 0.2089 -0.613
3 Archipelago 1 0.0% 46.0 100.0% 0.062 0.2348 0.0
3 Coastline 4 25.0% 27.0 75.0% 0.185 -0.5976 0.102
3 Other 25 24.0% 34.88 96.0% 0.735 0.6991 0.289
3 Round (Default) 347 46.63% 39.56 77.52% -0.275 0.3198 -0.077
3 Sunrise 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.088 0.1252 0.0
3 Thematic 7 57.14% 68.29 57.14% 0.062 0.0242 -0.118
4 Archipelago 3 33.33% 51.67 100.0% 0.185 -0.526 0.271
4 Coastline 3 33.33% 36.33 100.0% 0.12 0.2362 0.0
4 Leaf 2 50.0% 54.5 100.0% 0.029 0.5911 0.0
4 Other 6 50.0% 33.33 100.0% 0.656 0.4021 -0.166
4 Thematic 13 38.46% 52.77 69.23% -0.331 0.1984 0.438
4 Trapezoid (Default) 172 36.26% 53.28 86.05% 0.337 0.3097 0.015
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 90.5 100.0% 0.036 -0.5432 0.373
5 Other 17 29.41% 27.24 76.47% -0.418 -0.25 -0.022
5 Thematic 3 33.33% 45.67 0.0% -1.351 -1.628 -1.15
6 Archipelago 1 0.0% 29.0 100.0% 0.011 -0.245 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.037 -0.5521 0.0
6 Other 21 33.33% 46.33 76.19% -0.507 0.3024 -0.272
6 Star 6 66.67% 32.33 50.0% -0.7 0.0832 -0.875
6 Thematic 41 19.51% 44.29 82.93% -0.655 -0.9336 -0.266
6 Two Centers (Default) 44 37.21% 44.55 84.09% -0.539 -0.6327 0.278
7 Archipelago 2 50.0% 78.5 50.0% -0.365 -0.9419 -0.506
7 Other 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.076 -1.0757 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 133 41.05 62.41% -1.16 0.7427 -0.44
Aid From Lesser Spirits 111 41.79 63.06% -1.056 0.6738 -0.546
All Things Weaken 120 39.21 55.0% -1.472 0.5133 -0.81
Back Against the Wall 116 40.0 62.07% -1.332 0.4849 -0.971
Disintegrating Ecosystem 113 35.81 59.29% -1.363 0.6872 -0.608
Downward Spiral 144 40.24 61.81% -1.155 0.8377 -0.556
Erosion of Will 119 36.71 48.74% -1.831 0.2525 -1.402
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 64 46.95 82.81% -0.098 0.3427 0.321
Memory Fades to Dust 146 40.32 60.27% -1.343 0.7409 -0.371
Power Corrodes the Spirit 136 41.4 61.76% -1.308 0.6301 -0.728
Promising Farmlands 131 39.79 55.73% -1.325 0.7205 -0.901
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 39 48.41 87.18% 0.197 0.6218 0.848
Thriving Communities 101 37.42 49.5% -1.674 0.3093 -0.716
Unnatural Proliferation 128 41.31 65.63% -1.155 0.8092 -0.4
Untended Land Crumbles 130 39.45 52.31% -1.52 0.4731 -0.865

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1186 45.93% 41.67 77.4% 0.236 1.0332 0.467
B 886 43.59% 42.64 78.33% 0.027 0.7706 0.148
C 972 46.2% 41.15 75.51% 0.08 0.6484 -0.131
D 716 46.96% 40.71 75.84% 0.046 0.8419 0.193
E 763 45.51% 41.19 75.1% 0.223 0.8701 -0.152
F 619 44.32% 41.13 79.0% 0.026 0.7501 0.038
G 579 43.06% 42.32 80.14% 0.204 0.936 -0.082
H 586 42.37% 41.81 80.55% 0.395 1.1071 0.252
East 119 39.5% 52.06 73.95% -0.623 0.1454 -0.635
Northeast 72 29.17% 47.99 72.22% -0.403 0.4568 0.18
Northwest 67 31.34% 47.51 74.63% 0.317 1.3938 -0.069
Southeast 58 24.14% 44.38 77.59% 0.495 1.201 0.0
Southwest 57 31.58% 40.02 75.44% -0.892 0.2333 0.0
West 105 42.86% 49.44 73.33% -0.074 0.8801 -0.218

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 26 0.0% 26.62 76.92% -1.617 0.5119 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 48 34.15% 33.17 75.0% -0.436 -0.2613 -1.261
Skip Initial Invader Actions 68 5.77% 39.69 89.71% 0.055 -0.0874 -0.373
Start of Game Growth 102 12.05% 42.49 90.2% 0.503 -0.2578 0.751
Unlimited Undo 386 41.6% 43.63 84.72% 0.413 -0.1908 0.965
Using Tokens but Not Events 315 31.08% 41.01 90.79% 0.627 0.4709 0.809

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 118 100.0% 42.64 100.0% 0.272 0.1567 0.084
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 17 100.0% 28.76 100.0% -0.287 -0.1916 -0.906
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 43 100.0% 40.09 100.0% -0.039 -0.2005 -0.694
Downpour Drenches the World 262 100.0% 46.26 100.0% 0.116 0.3687 0.429
Eyes Watch From the Trees 117 100.0% 44.96 100.0% 0.469 0.0312 0.09
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 54 100.0% 39.04 100.0% -0.464 -0.9515 -0.095
Finder of Paths Unseen 115 100.0% 42.19 100.0% 0.096 0.4596 0.644
Fractured Days Split the Sky 42 100.0% 49.98 100.0% 0.613 0.6691 0.996
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 94 100.0% 52.3 100.0% 0.349 0.3171 0.255
Heart of the Wildfire 33 100.0% 29.94 100.0% -1.119 -0.9447 -1.208
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 132 100.0% 43.77 100.0% 0.478 0.0218 0.574
Lightning's Swift Strike 36 760.53% 43.75 375.0% 1.168 1.4422 0.942
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 155 40.52% 36.7 73.55% 0.169 -0.6079 -0.849
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 73 35.62% 48.25 86.3% 0.605 -0.0378 0.495
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 224 49.55% 54.36 78.57% 0.997 0.7302 0.355
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 95 100.0% 40.55 100.0% -0.372 -0.6391 -0.485
Many Minds Move as One 30 100.0% 43.63 100.0% 0.202 -0.4008 0.214
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 269 100.0% 44.25 100.0% -0.411 -0.596 -0.035
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 34 100.0% 37.59 100.0% -0.287 -0.2664 -0.043
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 55 100.0% 45.45 100.0% -0.126 -0.1784 0.033
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 3 3833.33% 25.0 1333.33% 0.259 0.6689 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 86 40.7% 34.81 80.23% -0.534 -0.5274 0.403
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 98 47.96% 41.45 81.63% 0.038 -0.309 -0.367
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 9 33.33% 31.0 88.89% -0.083 -0.0638 0.513
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 7 42.86% 30.57 85.71% -0.335 -0.1525 -0.152
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 53 100.0% 44.58 100.0% 0.397 0.11 0.724
Shifting Memory of Ages 41 100.0% 37.51 100.0% -0.676 -0.6011 -0.077
Shroud of Silent Mist 33 100.0% 37.06 100.0% -0.216 0.0207 -0.408
Starlight Seeks its Form 148 100.0% 53.11 100.0% 0.221 0.0821 0.2
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 81 100.0% 46.32 100.0% -0.272 -0.454 -0.127
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 58 100.0% 44.55 100.0% 0.27 0.4548 0.512
Thunderspeaker 199 100.0% 39.33 100.0% -0.479 -0.4147 -0.808
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 17 100.0% 32.24 100.0% 0.018 -0.0726 -0.324
Vital Strength of the Earth 22 556.52% 23.27 240.91% -0.436 0.3721 -0.66
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 162 36.02% 39.29 80.86% -0.346 0.0409 0.294
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 3 33.33% 27.67 100.0% 0.183 1.3571 0.0
Volcano Looming High 48 100.0% 36.94 100.0% -0.185 -0.1889 -0.407

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 88.08%
Flash Floods 93.62%
River's Bounty 97.92%
Wash Away 93.35%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 911 22.56 39.74%
II 1806 30.98 84.94%
III 762 34.53 92.13%
IV 213 37.77 98.59%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 361
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 671
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 1428
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 199
Lose: Invader deck ran out 33
Lose: Adversary condition 295
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 43
Win: Scenario condition 127
Lose: Blight pool ran out 482
Lose: Spirit destroyed 31

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.585 Win Model: -0.218

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.285 Win Model: 0.308
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1927 51.39% 39.59 74.1%
2 1050 44.32% 41.89 76.67%
3 384 45.5% 39.68 78.39%
4 194 36.27% 52.03 86.08%
5 19 31.58% 29.95 63.16%
6 118 31.03% 44.42 80.51%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)