Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 75 29.33% 31.27 93.33% 0.488 0.409 0.658
Blitz 0 63 29.51% 34.25 65.08% -0.939 -0.7925 0.571
Dahan Insurrection 4 577 32.41% 61.28 69.5% 0.399 0.1917 0.635
Despicable Theft 2 64 49.21% 34.53 81.25% 0.248 0.9309 0.372
Elemental Invocation 1 34 32.35% 34.0 82.35% 0.214 0.9454 -0.129
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 508 15.16% 54.15 78.74% 1.09 0.4839 0.299
Powers Long Forgotten 1 106 39.62% 33.03 79.25% 0.064 0.5527 -0.121
Rituals of Terror 3 106 51.43% 75.41 82.08% 0.249 0.3545 1.999
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 4 25.0% 22.75 50.0% 0.289 1.2811 -0.507
Second Wave 0 312 28.09% 36.61 84.29% 0.321 0.3838 -0.167
The Great River 3 46 48.89% 27.59 39.13% -1.357 -0.0087 -0.993
Varied Terrains 2 74 67.57% 34.61 60.81% -0.053 0.5097 -0.427
Ward the Shores 2 44 40.48% 29.73 59.09% -1.899 -0.6892 -0.166

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5227 52.46% 36.42 67.92% 0.512 0.7214 0.662
1 Thematic 160 55.35% 43.2 61.88% 0.013 0.6117 0.922
2 Archipelago 15 26.67% 45.4 60.0% -0.432 -0.0746 -0.293
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 2159 41.78% 40.64 75.22% 0.582 0.742 0.714
2 Coastline 424 39.35% 40.91 79.95% 0.414 0.4746 1.059
2 Fragment 49 38.78% 40.92 69.39% 0.96 0.8964 0.976
2 Heart 47 63.83% 38.77 48.94% -0.032 -0.2698 -0.294
2 Opposite Shores 596 49.75% 38.82 64.6% 0.273 0.4062 -0.238
2 Thematic 158 46.84% 50.16 55.7% -0.301 0.3348 -0.05
2 Top to Top 133 49.62% 41.91 72.93% 0.286 0.3267 0.409
3 Archipelago 8 75.0% 116.75 100.0% 2.044 0.9571 0.614
3 Coastline 13 7.69% 30.31 46.15% -0.027 -0.5246 -0.129
3 Other 82 21.95% 28.5 81.71% 0.228 0.3379 1.242
3 Round (Default) 1298 45.43% 39.98 70.96% 0.04 -0.001 -0.079
3 Sunrise 2 0.0% 18.5 50.0% -0.328 -0.1318 -0.519
3 Thematic 46 32.61% 50.39 73.91% 0.415 0.451 0.49
4 Archipelago 14 28.57% 47.71 71.43% -0.319 -0.5334 0.048
4 Coastline 8 37.5% 41.25 75.0% -0.323 -0.2007 0.561
4 Leaf 5 60.0% 41.8 60.0% -0.548 -0.9232 -0.486
4 Other 23 43.48% 31.87 82.61% -0.215 -1.065 0.617
4 Snake 1 100.0% 18.0 0.0% -0.326 -0.3462 0.0
4 Thematic 86 31.4% 46.55 55.81% -0.424 -0.4409 -0.729
4 Trapezoid (Default) 774 43.27% 48.09 73.0% 0.005 -0.1815 -0.41
5 Archipelago 4 50.0% 71.25 100.0% 0.0 -1.2256 0.378
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 68.0 100.0% 0.354 0.3115 0.446
5 Other 71 35.29% 37.65 78.87% 0.457 -0.0514 0.412
5 Thematic 13 46.15% 58.38 38.46% -0.202 -0.532 -1.651
6 Archipelago 9 22.22% 30.0 77.78% -0.286 -0.5908 0.0
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 12.0 50.0% -0.247 -0.8902 -0.321
6 Other 71 45.07% 42.24 77.46% -0.338 -0.7321 -0.598
6 Star 23 43.48% 37.13 60.87% -0.267 0.2087 -1.211
6 Thematic 146 22.6% 39.03 71.23% -0.983 -0.5837 -1.478
6 Two Centers (Default) 156 29.87% 41.85 80.77% -0.732 -0.6886 -0.456
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 101.67 66.67% 0.0 -0.5893 -0.663
7 Other 4 0.0% 22.0 50.0% -0.274 -1.0465 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 372 39.56 58.87% -0.112 0.1597 -0.299
Aid From Lesser Spirits 362 44.34 63.54% 0.534 0.5723 -0.163
All Things Weaken 392 41.07 59.18% 0.145 0.6056 0.042
Attenuated Essence 36 33.19 55.56% -0.017 0.1884 -0.009
Back Against the Wall 332 41.04 59.94% 0.632 0.7935 -0.197
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 44 24.95 43.18% -0.54 -0.1252 -0.481
Burn Brightest Before the End 41 30.05 43.9% -0.373 -0.0681 -0.516
Disintegrating Ecosystem 335 35.26 52.24% -0.676 -0.1498 -0.161
Downward Spiral 424 38.64 57.55% -0.184 0.1689 -0.063
Erosion of Will 358 38.58 50.56% -0.128 0.2802 -0.603
Intensifying Exploitation 66 34.5 40.91% -0.346 0.0411 -0.546
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 185 46.82 82.16% 0.639 0.1135 0.742
Memory Fades to Dust 412 37.57 56.31% -0.032 0.449 -0.055
Power Corrodes the Spirit 361 39.54 56.51% -0.136 0.1684 -0.373
Promising Farmlands 386 38.6 51.3% -0.351 0.2351 -0.354
Shattered Fragments of Power 46 35.54 52.17% 0.099 0.2773 -0.411
Slow Dissolution of Will 54 26.3 35.19% -0.769 -0.2355 -1.361
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 112 54.06 85.71% 0.839 0.1615 0.952
The Border of Life and Death 18 31.78 61.11% 0.387 0.2571 -0.306
Thriving Communities 350 37.75 51.14% -0.436 0.0575 -0.427
Thriving Crops 32 30.53 59.38% 0.017 0.1047 -0.557
Unnatural Proliferation 385 40.62 57.92% -0.133 0.1643 -0.132
Untended Land Crumbles 382 38.46 53.14% -0.379 -0.0206 -0.196

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 3953 45.0% 40.35 71.97% 0.242 1.0822 0.458
B 2878 44.86% 40.65 71.82% -0.044 0.7347 0.344
C 3218 45.08% 40.2 71.32% 0.102 0.756 0.107
D 2585 44.96% 38.93 70.95% 0.045 0.8443 0.253
E 2496 45.87% 40.7 72.52% 0.473 1.1017 0.258
F 2160 45.53% 39.65 71.2% 0.094 0.8135 0.196
G 2006 43.27% 40.3 71.83% 0.32 1.0619 0.294
H 2077 44.44% 40.49 72.85% 0.231 0.8796 0.53
East 533 37.34% 46.66 62.85% 0.424 1.0278 0.303
Northeast 337 32.64% 43.36 60.83% -0.392 0.4893 -1.294
Northwest 268 31.72% 43.76 63.81% -0.609 0.064 -0.301
Southeast 251 29.48% 41.88 66.14% -0.45 0.1858 -0.708
Southwest 220 29.55% 37.62 67.73% -0.771 0.394 -0.417
West 437 37.39% 45.42 63.62% 0.316 1.2803 -0.079

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 168 0.0% 24.36 57.74% -1.381 -0.4979 -0.665
Not Using Events or Tokens 246 41.12% 24.91 60.57% -0.383 -0.051 -1.932
Skip Initial Invader Actions 315 4.67% 49.33 89.52% 1.477 0.9416 2.061
Start of Game Growth 417 11.75% 47.53 85.85% 0.057 -0.2735 0.415
Unlimited Undo 1280 41.99% 41.47 77.66% 0.057 0.035 0.524
Using Tokens but Not Events 1151 29.65% 37.98 78.97% 0.253 0.199 0.135

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 449 100.0% 40.9 100.0% -0.044 -0.2035 0.247
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 108 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.905 -0.7837 -1.139
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 150 100.0% 33.25 100.0% -0.357 -0.5244 -0.422
Downpour Drenches the World 766 100.0% 46.71 100.0% 0.023 0.2021 0.07
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 274 100.0% 32.89 100.0% 0.39 -0.3311 -0.479
Eyes Watch From the Trees 482 100.0% 44.01 100.0% 0.469 -0.1202 0.398
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 209 100.0% 34.82 100.0% 0.041 -0.4297 0.226
Finder of Paths Unseen 313 100.0% 39.9 100.0% 0.025 0.7192 0.43
Fractured Days Split the Sky 185 100.0% 47.94 100.0% -0.363 0.3217 0.342
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 373 100.0% 50.07 100.0% -0.094 -0.1953 0.03
Heart of the Wildfire 135 100.0% 31.56 100.0% 0.323 0.5675 -0.799
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 589 100.0% 42.64 100.0% 0.444 -0.0054 0.264
Lightning's Swift Strike 156 545.95% 39.1 370.51% 0.649 0.8526 0.7
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 324 42.01% 35.0 74.07% 0.27 -0.4265 -0.629
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 243 40.91% 45.18 74.49% -0.027 -0.2663 0.562
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 978 47.8% 50.72 71.78% 0.648 0.4883 0.524
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 341 100.0% 38.94 100.0% 0.185 0.0402 0.22
Many Minds Move as One 127 100.0% 36.31 100.0% -0.101 -0.3222 0.183
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 1025 100.0% 44.22 100.0% 0.092 0.0827 0.263
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 217 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.523 -0.6651 -0.741
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 219 100.0% 44.12 100.0% 0.602 0.3887 0.039
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 20 950.0% 22.35 620.0% -1.409 -0.9733 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 186 37.91% 36.68 77.42% -0.119 -0.1201 0.606
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 199 39.38% 40.56 80.9% 0.439 0.4306 0.608
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 47 42.22% 26.47 59.57% -1.156 -1.2278 -0.057
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 25 36.0% 30.72 80.0% -0.913 -0.8548 0.112
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 226 114.16% 45.02 107.52% -0.04 -0.1687 0.895
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 54 40.74% 32.69 68.52% 0.529 0.1659 0.971
Shifting Memory of Ages 150 100.0% 37.89 100.0% 0.142 0.5493 -0.244
Shroud of Silent Mist 125 100.0% 35.09 100.0% -0.162 0.1526 -0.746
Starlight Seeks its Form 659 100.0% 49.15 100.0% 0.784 0.5111 0.306
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 300 100.0% 40.32 100.0% 0.456 -0.0391 -0.083
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 234 100.0% 42.47 100.0% 0.898 0.9281 0.286
Thunderspeaker 681 110.57% 42.1 107.64% -0.058 -0.0774 -0.086
Thunderspeaker — Tactician 111 35.14% 27.01 53.15% -0.229 -0.2918 -0.677
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 97 100.0% 34.03 100.0% -0.196 -0.1351 0.084
Vital Strength of the Earth 80 423.26% 22.48 235.0% -0.411 0.1413 -1.411
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 398 34.18% 37.33 75.13% 0.043 0.2993 -0.3
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 31 35.48% 27.19 70.97% 0.068 0.9642 -0.364
Volcano Looming High 212 100.0% 39.17 100.0% -0.291 -0.2812 0.198

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 88.03%
Flash Floods 93.07%
River's Bounty 97.76%
Wash Away 93.32%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 3291 21.03 29.32%
II 5515 31.04 81.99%
III 2453 34.74 92.17%
IV 574 38.02 98.78%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 964
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2172
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 4166
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 541
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 794
Lose: Invader deck ran out 121
Lose: Adversary condition 928
Win: Sacrifice victory 45
Lose: Scenario condition 90
Win: Scenario condition 427
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1507
Lose: Spirit destroyed 78

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.517 Win Model: -0.131

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.186 Win Model: 0.104
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 5449 52.52% 36.97 67.63%
2 3565 43.39% 40.52 72.96%
3 1429 43.63% 39.79 71.03%
4 896 41.82% 47.49 71.88%
5 83 42.5% 38.3 71.08%
6 411 29.66% 40.72 75.67%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)