Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 50 24.0% 30.72 100.0% 0.815 1.3107 0.573
Blitz 0 32 26.67% 43.72 84.38% -0.359 0.0837 0.75
Dahan Insurrection 4 406 34.24% 63.82 71.43% 0.124 0.2209 0.426
Despicable Theft 2 45 50.0% 36.76 86.67% -0.501 -0.002 0.903
Elemental Invocation 1 20 45.0% 38.35 80.0% -0.191 0.3549 -0.048
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 380 14.21% 54.7 78.16% 0.554 0.7859 0.068
Powers Long Forgotten 1 62 40.32% 36.34 90.32% 0.14 0.548 0.142
Rituals of Terror 3 70 48.57% 82.83 90.0% 2.705 2.4692 2.366
Second Wave 0 173 30.49% 36.27 89.02% 0.653 1.3456 0.509
The Great River 3 30 58.62% 35.4 50.0% -1.686 -0.1041 0.075
Varied Terrains 2 54 70.37% 34.19 62.96% -1.096 -0.3099 -0.502
Ward the Shores 2 32 43.33% 37.81 75.0% -0.15 0.7308 0.087

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3562 52.9% 38.83 72.66% 0.329 0.9916 0.229
1 Thematic 119 56.3% 46.23 66.39% 0.745 1.8017 0.681
2 Archipelago 9 44.44% 69.89 77.78% 0.3 0.7709 -0.13
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 1327 44.3% 44.82 79.8% 0.577 1.0955 0.407
2 Coastline 300 44.04% 44.62 85.0% 0.836 1.0365 1.01
2 Fragment 36 41.67% 44.06 69.44% -0.967 -0.6686 0.529
2 Heart 17 58.82% 46.18 82.35% 0.232 0.6922 0.603
2 Opposite Shores 380 50.13% 40.42 67.11% -0.297 0.2417 -0.463
2 Thematic 90 55.56% 62.19 63.33% -0.179 0.6028 -0.236
2 Top to Top 102 52.94% 44.01 76.47% 0.915 1.0433 0.217
3 Archipelago 3 33.33% 57.0 100.0% 0.14 -0.0788 0.095
3 Coastline 9 11.11% 37.44 66.67% -0.396 -0.9033 0.426
3 Other 54 22.22% 30.39 94.44% 1.47 0.8061 0.98
3 Round (Default) 798 48.21% 42.18 77.07% -0.051 0.2532 -0.063
3 Sunrise 1 0.0% 37.0 100.0% 0.0 0.46 0.0
3 Thematic 30 36.67% 53.93 76.67% -0.244 -0.0357 0.678
4 Archipelago 9 22.22% 49.22 77.78% -0.742 -0.7792 -0.194
4 Coastline 6 33.33% 46.83 83.33% -0.206 -0.2436 0.075
4 Leaf 4 75.0% 52.25 75.0% -0.31 -0.4119 -0.465
4 Other 12 25.0% 37.17 100.0% 0.226 -0.4875 0.563
4 Thematic 53 28.3% 51.17 58.49% -0.925 -0.8214 -1.092
4 Trapezoid (Default) 470 42.33% 55.48 80.85% 0.054 0.1313 -0.166
5 Archipelago 2 50.0% 90.5 100.0% 0.022 -0.0758 0.303
5 Other 52 34.62% 41.88 84.62% 0.701 0.1847 0.288
5 Thematic 11 54.55% 59.55 36.36% -0.906 -1.1932 -1.489
6 Archipelago 5 0.0% 33.0 100.0% 0.058 -0.0887 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 24.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 49 40.82% 44.55 73.47% -0.484 -0.4394 -0.462
6 Star 15 53.33% 44.53 66.67% -0.326 0.4449 -0.976
6 Thematic 100 23.0% 44.38 80.0% -0.822 -0.5814 -1.12
6 Two Centers (Default) 94 39.78% 48.43 88.3% -0.008 0.183 0.409
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 101.67 66.67% 0.0 0.1488 -0.673
7 Other 2 0.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 267 41.21 61.05% -1.272 0.6985 -0.569
Aid From Lesser Spirits 263 43.66 63.5% -0.998 0.7796 -0.661
All Things Weaken 279 41.73 58.78% -1.151 0.8978 -0.508
Back Against the Wall 247 40.74 58.3% -1.397 0.5416 -0.886
Disintegrating Ecosystem 239 35.54 55.23% -1.463 0.6648 -0.75
Downward Spiral 298 41.45 60.4% -1.115 0.8458 -0.518
Erosion of Will 252 38.81 52.78% -1.542 0.5397 -1.247
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 138 48.87 84.78% 0.071 0.573 0.237
Memory Fades to Dust 292 39.55 58.9% -1.52 0.6206 -0.424
Power Corrodes the Spirit 263 41.05 57.79% -1.719 0.2616 -0.831
Promising Farmlands 288 40.28 52.78% -1.527 0.4951 -0.854
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 82 53.83 87.8% 0.151 0.6481 0.5
Thriving Communities 241 38.29 51.87% -1.401 0.6585 -0.955
Unnatural Proliferation 281 41.33 60.14% -1.379 0.5783 -0.655
Untended Land Crumbles 269 40.74 55.76% -1.276 0.7568 -0.611

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2575 47.13% 43.83 77.63% 0.545 1.2817 0.699
B 1878 45.76% 44.07 76.78% -0.014 0.6834 0.388
C 2080 47.2% 43.73 76.78% 0.372 0.8413 0.144
D 1632 47.51% 42.69 76.29% 0.427 1.1368 0.288
E 1622 47.68% 43.6 76.63% 0.45 0.9947 0.236
F 1361 46.12% 43.88 78.03% 0.124 0.7857 0.112
G 1227 44.49% 43.66 77.1% 0.118 0.7486 0.2
H 1276 44.93% 44.38 80.09% 0.331 0.9953 0.477
East 347 38.04% 52.88 69.45% 0.059 0.7209 -0.145
Northeast 213 31.92% 47.94 67.14% -1.45 -0.7905 -1.378
Northwest 180 34.44% 47.66 67.78% 0.023 0.6333 0.021
Southeast 169 28.99% 47.01 73.96% -0.654 -0.1231 -0.769
Southwest 146 29.45% 42.14 77.4% -0.045 0.9231 -0.201
West 292 42.47% 50.59 68.15% -0.264 0.542 -0.106

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 98 0.0% 31.77 72.45% -2.125 0.1037 -1.169
Not Using Events or Tokens 121 26.0% 28.79 75.21% -0.461 -0.2347 -1.403
Skip Initial Invader Actions 187 5.63% 50.65 90.37% 1.531 0.5512 1.081
Start of Game Growth 249 13.73% 49.66 89.16% -0.337 -0.7942 1.057
Unlimited Undo 831 43.69% 44.53 85.56% 0.657 0.1052 1.074
Using Tokens but Not Events 702 32.48% 40.89 85.33% -0.056 0.0994 -0.022

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 282 100.0% 45.46 100.0% 0.811 0.7354 0.73
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 75 100.0% 37.88 100.0% -0.298 -0.2196 -1.203
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 81 100.0% 40.47 100.0% 0.202 -0.0229 -0.582
Downpour Drenches the World 547 100.0% 51.11 100.0% 0.113 0.3778 0.297
Eyes Watch From the Trees 303 100.0% 48.2 100.0% 0.562 0.0593 0.31
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 127 100.0% 36.66 100.0% -0.214 -0.8007 0.047
Finder of Paths Unseen 224 100.0% 43.55 100.0% -0.205 0.1505 0.417
Fractured Days Split the Sky 122 100.0% 55.32 100.0% -0.328 -0.2466 0.633
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 247 100.0% 53.95 100.0% 0.11 0.0155 -0.066
Heart of the Wildfire 73 100.0% 32.68 100.0% -0.392 0.0134 -1.158
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 320 100.0% 45.2 100.0% -0.001 -0.6041 0.325
Lightning's Swift Strike 102 523.81% 41.61 317.65% -0.28 0.0849 0.493
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 238 40.85% 36.58 76.89% -0.009 -0.7578 -1.021
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 160 43.17% 50.26 85.0% 1.292 0.7287 0.378
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 651 51.46% 55.93 78.03% 0.693 0.199 0.473
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 217 100.0% 42.97 100.0% 0.183 0.0313 0.099
Many Minds Move as One 72 100.0% 42.99 100.0% 0.534 -0.0525 0.831
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 660 100.0% 48.65 100.0% 0.128 -0.0418 -0.011
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 133 100.0% 38.8 100.0% -0.378 -0.4343 -0.265
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 145 100.0% 46.99 100.0% -0.011 -0.2043 -0.341
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5 2200.0% 21.6 1240.0% -0.754 -0.2795 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 143 40.85% 38.08 80.42% -0.187 -0.007 0.642
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 153 45.33% 42.95 83.01% 0.275 0.3305 0.505
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 20 35.0% 33.55 90.0% 0.505 0.4827 0.259
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 14 28.57% 30.07 92.86% 0.413 0.5287 -0.292
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 153 100.0% 48.1 100.0% 0.336 0.1442 0.767
Shifting Memory of Ages 89 100.0% 41.66 100.0% -0.503 -0.2878 0.11
Shroud of Silent Mist 80 100.0% 37.48 100.0% -0.673 -0.5384 -0.758
Starlight Seeks its Form 388 100.0% 55.66 100.0% 0.405 0.2906 0.187
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 208 100.0% 43.55 100.0% -0.31 -0.5488 -0.217
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 159 100.0% 45.68 100.0% 0.533 0.6628 0.151
Thunderspeaker 503 100.0% 43.94 100.0% -0.003 -0.0207 -0.211
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 49 100.0% 39.59 100.0% -0.533 -0.7482 -0.023
Vital Strength of the Earth 40 538.64% 23.95 265.0% -1.223 -0.3248 -0.707
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 293 37.72% 39.39 78.84% -0.293 0.1296 -0.478
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 20 35.0% 29.7 80.0% -0.308 0.8061 -0.351
Volcano Looming High 131 100.0% 43.14 100.0% 0.12 0.0989 0.239

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 87.52%
Flash Floods 93.2%
River's Bounty 97.75%
Wash Away 93.27%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1805 22.65 37.73%
II 3849 31.08 83.29%
III 1671 34.66 92.1%
IV 402 37.91 99.25%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 680
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1467
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 2950
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 377
Lose: Invader deck ran out 88
Lose: Adversary condition 637
Win: Sacrifice victory 37
Lose: Scenario condition 71
Win: Scenario condition 314
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1051
Lose: Spirit destroyed 55

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.884 Win Model: -0.158

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.538 Win Model: 0.333
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 3721 53.14% 39.55 72.43%
2 2254 45.61% 44.11 77.64%
3 881 46.37% 42.19 77.64%
4 543 40.11% 54.41 79.56%
5 58 43.1% 43.4 74.14%
6 270 33.21% 46.12 81.85%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)