Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 29 24.14% 33.66 79.31% 0.312 0.8076 0.489
Blitz 0 1929 39.14% 29.51 75.38% -0.749 -0.306 0.036
Dahan Insurrection 4 9492 36.68% 56.49 71.08% 0.437 0.5344 0.809
Despicable Theft 2 348 39.08% 33.51 82.76% -0.399 0.0994 1.105
Elemental Invocation 1 154 48.7% 30.58 66.23% 0.59 1.1355 0.578
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6666 9.47% 47.05 81.43% -0.996 -0.7645 0.6
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3017 35.93% 39.19 81.54% -0.002 0.4053 -0.481
Rituals of Terror 3 2045 42.72% 41.68 77.75% 0.091 -0.145 0.823
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 290 76.9% 36.18 59.66% 0.0 0.2262 -0.002
Second Wave 0 7382 41.33% 30.89 78.91% -0.465 0.2275 0.116
The Great River 3 225 48.89% 30.62 56.0% -0.95 0.6315 -1.127
Varied Terrains 2 29 58.62% 36.86 75.86% -0.283 0.5036 -0.069
Ward the Shores 2 830 46.73% 34.55 60.72% 0.163 1.0442 -1.01

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 95071 40.9% 30.76 76.67% -0.345 0.3177 0.484
1 Thematic 8578 51.27% 45.12 59.35% -0.357 0.6997 -0.116
2 Archipelago 30 50.0% 37.1 76.67% 0.072 0.5426 -0.394
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 36299 43.86% 30.9 75.37% -0.387 0.1314 0.389
2 Coastline 4250 40.86% 32.38 76.35% -0.011 0.1898 0.268
2 Fragment 978 46.67% 26.93 71.68% 0.291 0.5892 0.532
2 Heart 512 46.85% 28.32 70.51% -0.562 -0.1019 -0.313
2 Opposite Shores 6808 40.25% 32.49 78.22% -0.294 0.2449 -0.076
2 Thematic 3582 47.02% 42.51 66.02% 0.409 1.1908 0.069
2 Top to Top 1019 48.24% 32.25 74.78% 1.143 1.2709 0.611
3 Archipelago 40 52.5% 50.0 80.0% 0.863 0.6447 0.488
3 Coastline 110 45.28% 31.67 70.0% -0.747 -1.2545 0.454
3 Other 629 38.41% 29.14 74.88% 0.543 -0.1208 0.568
3 Round (Default) 19268 36.39% 33.31 79.6% -0.281 0.0231 0.014
3 Sunrise 89 37.18% 31.2 82.02% -1.113 -0.653 0.92
3 Thematic 1114 38.72% 39.46 71.99% -0.618 -0.4097 -0.174
4 Archipelago 44 25.58% 48.55 86.36% 0.967 0.9292 -0.214
4 Coastline 105 26.67% 28.96 61.9% -0.364 -0.4015 -0.155
4 Leaf 65 31.25% 32.22 80.0% 0.0 -0.1019 -0.692
4 Other 492 34.18% 32.54 81.71% -0.282 -0.9957 -0.175
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0% 45.75 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 12 66.67% 32.92 50.0% 0.0 0.0 -0.656
4 Thematic 4088 28.46% 48.81 76.81% -0.202 -0.0985 -0.587
4 Trapezoid (Default) 15763 30.49% 39.11 81.78% 0.441 0.5189 0.118
5 Archipelago 12 58.33% 52.58 75.0% 0.033 -0.0645 -0.137
5 Coastline 11 20.0% 30.18 100.0% 0.022 -0.5661 0.279
5 Other 292 37.28% 36.02 89.04% 1.382 0.8652 0.082
5 Thematic 58 39.66% 56.66 72.41% -0.954 -1.2414 -0.362
6 Archipelago 15 28.57% 33.0 86.67% 0.025 -0.1218 -0.685
6 Coastline 5 33.33% 26.4 100.0% 0.326 -0.3076 0.0
6 Other 109 21.3% 38.12 90.83% 0.198 0.2428 0.34
6 Star 59 20.34% 36.85 88.14% -0.471 0.2989 -0.462
6 Thematic 303 30.56% 46.33 75.91% -0.927 -0.6857 -1.276
6 Two Centers (Default) 529 17.05% 36.31 92.44% -0.09 0.1009 0.03
7 Archipelago 2 100.0% 100.0 50.0% 0.0 0.1488 -0.435
7 Other 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5071 31.78 52.91% -2.282 -0.3115 -0.78
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4825 34.0 58.32% -1.47 0.3075 -0.284
All Things Weaken 1831 30.34 46.53% -2.448 -0.399 -1.037
Back Against the Wall 4573 32.87 54.84% -1.966 -0.0273 -0.532
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4775 28.67 49.03% -2.108 0.0198 -0.919
Downward Spiral 16924 28.51 55.31% -2.344 -0.3833 -0.708
Erosion of Will 4953 30.32 50.05% -2.421 -0.3389 -0.934
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 777 38.08 80.18% -0.107 0.3945 -0.165
Memory Fades to Dust 16937 28.05 51.69% -2.238 -0.0975 -0.823
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1810 31.72 53.2% -2.12 -0.1394 -0.863
Promising Farmlands 4963 28.61 47.23% -2.652 -0.6303 -0.986
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 523 39.23 83.37% -1.473 -0.9762 0.091
Thriving Communities 1773 30.61 50.71% -2.13 -0.0706 -0.858
Tipping Point 2451 29.8 48.76% 0.0 0.0 -0.62
Unnatural Proliferation 2037 32.56 51.64% -1.895 0.062 -0.772
Untended Land Crumbles 1838 30.51 50.49% -1.854 0.179 -1.031

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 63950 37.95% 32.58 77.92% 0.127 0.8635 0.196
B 64998 37.31% 32.93 78.46% -0.038 0.6589 0.186
C 67275 38.02% 33.05 78.28% -0.199 0.2708 0.136
D 60006 38.56% 32.19 78.29% 0.137 0.8468 0.256
E 13511 40.75% 34.81 77.94% -0.008 0.536 0.138
F 20076 39.6% 34.15 77.8% -0.152 0.5091 0.013
G 19219 39.62% 34.29 77.73% 0.034 0.6645 -0.034
H 18773 39.42% 34.27 77.8% -0.031 0.6335 0.035
East 13908 42.72% 46.81 65.85% 0.277 0.9388 0.207
Northeast 9354 40.48% 47.13 66.47% -0.368 0.2922 -0.435
Northwest 6836 35.43% 46.08 72.63% 0.192 0.8026 0.291
Southeast 1564 38.68% 42.78 72.51% -1.019 -0.488 -0.567
Southwest 1218 38.35% 40.32 71.59% -0.08 0.8889 -0.644
West 10603 39.62% 44.38 70.12% -0.865 -0.0593 -0.119

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 11971 0.0% 20.66 72.48% -2.356 -0.1267 -0.415
Not Using Events or Tokens 61573 39.6% 28.55 76.31% -0.092 0.135 -0.163
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6539 9.98% 41.88 91.8% 0.548 -0.4325 0.828
Start of Game Growth 9296 13.0% 40.71 89.79% 0.353 -0.1042 -0.016
Unlimited Undo 19534 34.11% 34.62 82.96% 0.402 -0.1491 0.74
Using Tokens but Not Events 21610 26.52% 33.23 84.91% 0.054 0.2092 0.389

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 16939 100.0% 32.06 100.0% -0.298 -0.3729 -0.193
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5840 100.0% 32.36 100.0% -0.753 -0.674 -0.333
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 2977 100.0% 34.05 100.0% 0.027 -0.1973 0.195
Downpour Drenches the World 238 100.0% 38.83 100.0% -0.416 -0.1512 -0.056
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7777 100.0% 38.67 100.0% 0.206 -0.2972 0.217
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3993 100.0% 36.87 100.0% 0.225 -0.3613 -0.38
Finder of Paths Unseen 208 100.0% 36.5 100.0% -0.316 0.0397 0.33
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1223 100.0% 42.2 100.0% -0.317 -0.2354 -0.017
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 732 100.0% 38.06 100.0% -0.043 -0.1381 -0.236
Heart of the Wildfire 5063 100.0% 33.34 100.0% 0.063 0.4682 0.17
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 15845 100.0% 40.9 100.0% 0.231 -0.373 0.322
Lightning's Swift Strike 12445 106.0% 33.9 102.65% -0.061 0.3036 -0.084
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 122 45.26% 42.6 81.15% 0.205 -0.5444 0.292
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 492 44.17% 39.13 73.58% 0.752 0.1878 0.265
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 704 39.43% 41.35 74.86% 0.966 0.472 0.287
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2302 100.0% 37.8 100.0% 0.043 -0.109 -0.107
Many Minds Move as One 1646 100.0% 36.05 100.0% 0.072 -0.5143 0.51
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14552 100.0% 38.06 100.0% 0.172 0.0021 0.394
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 2962 100.0% 35.0 100.0% -0.482 -0.5378 0.009
River Surges in Sunlight 19171 106.15% 36.95 102.56% -0.035 -0.1092 -0.156
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1596 41.61% 40.66 76.75% -0.216 0.2107 -0.156
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 503 44.29% 43.94 76.14% 0.114 -0.2273 -0.005
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8139 100.0% 38.05 100.0% 0.031 -0.1628 -0.326
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6098 106.68% 29.4 103.13% -0.55 -0.0758 -0.476
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 34 52.94% 49.24 85.29% 0.41 0.5897 1.061
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 43 51.16% 37.81 86.05% 0.662 0.7178 0.237
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 376 49.6% 32.84 69.15% -0.057 -0.08 -0.448
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 310 39.87% 35.89 79.35% -0.216 -0.1003 -0.009
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 10259 100.0% 40.03 100.0% 0.59 0.3991 0.063
Shifting Memory of Ages 714 100.0% 35.04 100.0% -0.428 -0.2128 -0.088
Shroud of Silent Mist 691 100.0% 33.3 100.0% -0.065 0.0693 0.528
Starlight Seeks its Form 683 100.0% 37.4 100.0% -0.051 -0.1655 -0.392
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2366 100.0% 34.8 100.0% -0.468 -0.707 -0.252
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3552 100.0% 40.66 100.0% 0.337 0.4676 0.567
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1327 100.0% 32.55 100.0% 0.168 -0.0479 -0.537
Vital Strength of the Earth 10144 102.6% 28.38 101.11% -0.706 0.1924 -0.841
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 94 29.76% 40.97 85.11% 0.247 0.6702 0.817
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 363 43.06% 33.04 72.73% 0.064 1.1788 -0.951
Volcano Looming High 1134 100.0% 34.63 100.0% -0.133 -0.1535 0.109

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory 94.54%
Sudden Ambush 89.88%
Voice of Thunder 91.47%
Words of Warning 98.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36150 22.65 40.74%
II 102687 31.08 80.4%
III 50420 34.66 88.36%
IV 11127 37.91 98.13%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14724
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 42542
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 74365
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10735
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1605
Lose: Adversary condition 12285
Win: Sacrifice victory 484
Lose: Scenario condition 1811
Win: Scenario condition 9912
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26497
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5424

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.585 Win Model: -0.18

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.256 Win Model: 0.069
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 103835 41.85% 31.97 75.2%
2 53502 43.53% 31.93 75.13%
3 21201 36.53% 33.52 79.08%
4 20621 30.16% 40.83 80.73%
5 235 31.3% 36.41 84.68%
6 990 21.7% 38.84 87.68%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)