Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 30 26.67% 34.07 80.0% 0.426 -0.0211 0.485
Blitz 0 1959 39.21% 29.49 75.14% -1.024 -0.5671 0.029
Dahan Insurrection 4 9645 36.5% 56.56 71.19% 0.195 0.215 0.82
Despicable Theft 2 361 40.17% 33.56 82.27% -0.026 0.4869 1.108
Elemental Invocation 1 161 49.07% 30.3 65.22% -1.008 -0.3091 0.43
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6826 9.4% 47.17 81.34% -0.264 -0.223 0.606
Powers Long Forgotten 1 3072 35.74% 39.34 81.67% 0.274 0.8361 -0.435
Rituals of Terror 3 2070 42.49% 41.73 77.92% 0.184 -0.1041 0.838
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 295 76.27% 36.02 59.66% -0.681 -0.251 -0.047
Second Wave 0 7545 41.19% 30.91 78.98% -0.284 0.1781 0.094
The Great River 3 232 50.0% 30.46 55.17% -1.454 0.3123 -1.178
Varied Terrains 2 37 59.46% 36.73 75.68% -0.168 0.6598 -0.067
Ward the Shores 2 838 46.64% 34.52 60.86% 0.068 0.8123 -1.004

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 96570 40.92% 30.76 76.63% 0.384 0.9343 0.513
1 Thematic 8637 51.16% 45.1 59.36% -0.52 0.4774 -0.083
2 Archipelago 32 53.13% 37.84 75.0% -0.451 0.1663 -0.535
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 36827 43.78% 30.92 75.43% 0.174 0.584 0.419
2 Coastline 4303 40.74% 32.4 76.39% 0.54 0.6758 0.29
2 Fragment 1001 46.91% 27.06 71.53% 0.308 0.3034 0.702
2 Heart 516 46.67% 28.32 70.74% -0.273 0.2024 -0.265
2 Opposite Shores 6952 40.32% 32.57 78.32% 0.408 0.761 -0.033
2 Thematic 3634 46.98% 42.51 65.8% -0.847 0.0828 0.064
2 Top to Top 1046 48.08% 32.29 74.95% 0.458 0.5842 0.571
3 Archipelago 42 52.38% 48.79 78.57% 0.055 0.2341 0.718
3 Coastline 111 45.79% 31.42 69.37% -0.3 -0.7166 0.453
3 Other 640 37.93% 29.02 75.0% 0.497 -0.2218 0.573
3 Round (Default) 19581 36.28% 33.37 79.61% -0.176 0.0174 0.013
3 Sunrise 89 37.18% 31.2 82.02% -0.836 -0.6869 0.918
3 Thematic 1122 38.72% 39.57 72.19% 1.005 1.0203 -0.16
4 Archipelago 45 25.0% 48.82 86.67% 0.96 0.5403 -0.229
4 Coastline 107 28.04% 28.93 62.62% 0.471 0.3985 -0.172
4 Leaf 70 36.23% 31.89 80.0% 0.244 0.1473 -0.718
4 Other 494 34.24% 32.55 81.78% 0.488 -0.1285 -0.277
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0% 45.75 100.0% 0.0 -0.045 0.0
4 Snake 12 66.67% 32.92 50.0% 0.0 0.5654 -0.641
4 Thematic 4134 28.39% 48.89 76.95% -0.463 -0.1807 -0.617
4 Trapezoid (Default) 16067 30.24% 39.06 81.93% 0.359 0.5472 0.085
5 Archipelago 12 58.33% 52.58 75.0% 0.0 -0.3838 -0.152
5 Coastline 13 25.0% 31.31 100.0% 0.122 0.2288 0.263
5 Other 315 35.48% 35.08 88.89% -0.146 -0.7771 0.008
5 Thematic 61 40.98% 57.0 73.77% 0.086 -0.8884 -0.351
6 Archipelago 15 28.57% 33.0 86.67% 0.0 -0.0703 -0.702
6 Coastline 5 33.33% 26.4 100.0% 0.0 -0.9494 0.0
6 Other 129 21.26% 36.43 90.7% -0.213 -0.4551 0.338
6 Star 65 23.08% 36.54 89.23% 0.233 0.7788 -0.479
6 Thematic 338 29.46% 48.23 77.22% -0.456 -0.4101 -1.175
6 Two Centers (Default) 589 17.18% 35.65 91.68% -0.969 -0.5056 -0.046
7 Archipelago 3 66.67% 80.33 66.67% 0.007 -0.2135 -0.56
7 Other 1 0.0% 28.0 100.0% 0.058 -0.3022 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 5139 31.79 52.93% -1.87 -0.1394 -0.787
Aid From Lesser Spirits 4886 34.05 58.33% -1.415 0.1605 -0.277
All Things Weaken 1890 30.28 46.14% -2.366 -0.4883 -1.089
Back Against the Wall 4646 32.99 55.02% -1.044 0.5925 -0.497
Burn Brightest Before the End 1 63.0 100.0% 0.13 1.1383 0.414
Disintegrating Ecosystem 4834 28.74 49.15% -1.32 0.5229 -0.911
Downward Spiral 17132 28.5 55.32% -1.822 -0.1236 -0.708
Erosion of Will 5012 30.33 50.06% -1.765 0.1349 -0.931
Intensifying Exploitation 1 46.0 100.0% 0.081 0.9699 0.0
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 803 38.04 79.83% -0.717 -0.2167 -0.159
Memory Fades to Dust 17150 28.02 51.68% -1.992 -0.1161 -0.824
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1878 31.71 53.14% -1.835 -0.1305 -0.848
Promising Farmlands 5018 28.6 47.23% -2.251 -0.3749 -0.992
Shattered Fragments of Power 1 16.0 0.0% -0.695 0.4611 0.0
Slow Dissolution of Will 1 62.0 100.0% 0.321 1.7918 0.378
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 535 39.29 83.36% -0.568 -0.3581 0.078
Thriving Communities 1827 30.74 50.79% -1.917 -0.0464 -0.848
Tipping Point 2451 29.8 48.76% 0.0 0.0 -0.613
Unnatural Proliferation 2089 32.6 51.89% -1.396 0.358 -0.775
Untended Land Crumbles 1897 30.5 50.34% -1.838 -0.0242 -1.032

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 64956 37.86% 32.57 77.97% -0.162 0.6153 0.161
B 66008 37.24% 32.94 78.5% -0.207 0.4962 0.166
C 68314 37.94% 33.06 78.31% -0.222 0.3059 0.124
D 60978 38.46% 32.17 78.28% -0.146 0.5886 0.223
E 14011 40.46% 34.77 78.12% -0.018 0.5656 0.123
F 20582 39.42% 34.14 77.94% 0.158 0.8649 -0.007
G 19683 39.34% 34.29 77.86% -0.145 0.4974 -0.05
H 19223 39.24% 34.28 77.95% -0.08 0.5653 0.024
East 14077 42.58% 46.88 65.95% -0.006 0.586 0.186
Northeast 9477 40.34% 47.23 66.65% 0.3 0.977 -0.463
Northwest 6937 35.26% 46.25 72.8% 0.261 0.6989 0.271
Southeast 1618 38.38% 43.27 72.87% -0.564 0.0994 -0.541
Southwest 1271 38.01% 41.01 71.91% -0.689 0.4825 -0.729
West 10750 39.5% 44.49 70.19% -0.381 0.4363 -0.148

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12104 0.0% 20.66 72.47% -1.813 0.2623 -0.438
Not Using Events or Tokens 62480 39.49% 28.54 76.34% -0.097 0.0742 -0.162
Skip Initial Invader Actions 6670 9.93% 42.01 91.84% 0.951 -0.1082 0.933
Start of Game Growth 9487 12.89% 40.86 89.82% 0.466 0.044 -0.071
Unlimited Undo 19896 34.09% 34.67 82.95% 0.278 -0.1378 0.729
Using Tokens but Not Events 22020 26.47% 33.31 84.94% 0.094 0.2096 0.433

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 17141 100.0% 32.07 100.0% 0.221 0.0423 -0.174
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 5916 100.0% 32.31 100.0% -0.309 -0.2945 -0.348
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3048 100.0% 33.92 100.0% -0.039 -0.2849 0.191
Downpour Drenches the World 290 100.0% 38.56 100.0% -0.624 -0.2364 -0.099
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 6 100.0% 26.67 100.0% -0.184 0.0513 0.0
Eyes Watch From the Trees 7959 100.0% 38.55 100.0% 0.601 0.1279 0.193
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4108 100.0% 37.05 100.0% -0.074 -0.5204 -0.356
Finder of Paths Unseen 256 100.0% 37.82 100.0% 0.342 0.706 0.693
Fractured Days Split the Sky 1259 100.0% 42.32 100.0% -0.114 -0.0104 -0.008
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 801 100.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.305 0.2407 -0.222
Heart of the Wildfire 5129 100.0% 33.34 100.0% -0.021 0.2383 0.145
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 16188 100.0% 40.9 100.0% 0.211 -0.3726 0.312
Lightning's Swift Strike 12572 106.19% 33.98 102.69% 0.041 0.3089 -0.062
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 136 44.95% 42.32 80.15% 0.096 -0.7184 0.182
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 501 44.06% 38.98 73.85% 0.427 -0.115 0.264
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 730 39.12% 41.38 75.34% 0.442 -0.0355 0.357
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2393 100.0% 37.78 100.0% 0.4 0.2784 -0.137
Many Minds Move as One 1679 100.0% 36.06 100.0% 0.286 -0.3372 0.498
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 14837 100.0% 38.07 100.0% 0.28 0.1521 0.401
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3026 100.0% 34.91 100.0% 0.146 0.0624 0.021
River Surges in Sunlight 19507 106.44% 36.95 102.67% 0.431 0.2395 -0.162
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 1639 41.27% 40.41 76.88% -0.212 0.0754 -0.171
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 583 44.04% 44.09 75.81% -0.022 -0.3848 -0.017
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 8265 100.0% 38.1 100.0% 0.122 -0.051 -0.332
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 6160 106.86% 29.42 103.2% -0.27 0.1225 -0.448
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 48 48.94% 49.19 83.33% -0.075 0.0218 1.029
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 47 46.81% 38.04 85.11% -0.608 -0.5328 0.242
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 378 49.6% 32.75 69.05% -0.533 -0.5693 -0.454
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 315 40.19% 35.87 79.37% -0.072 -0.0684 0.059
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 10435 100.0% 40.05 100.0% 0.378 0.1785 0.078
Shifting Memory of Ages 759 100.0% 34.77 100.0% -0.742 -0.5126 -0.093
Shroud of Silent Mist 715 100.0% 33.41 100.0% -0.043 0.1408 0.509
Starlight Seeks its Form 751 100.0% 37.14 100.0% -0.164 -0.3202 -0.305
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2443 100.0% 34.75 100.0% -0.431 -0.6944 -0.295
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 3613 100.0% 40.6 100.0% 0.716 0.7793 0.582
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1363 100.0% 32.59 100.0% -0.145 -0.4073 -0.488
Vital Strength of the Earth 10265 102.78% 28.36 101.19% -0.11 0.6434 -0.833
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 117 30.84% 39.56 82.05% -0.453 0.1247 0.381
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 372 42.55% 33.05 72.85% -0.218 0.9318 -0.945
Volcano Looming High 1201 100.0% 34.66 100.0% 0.14 0.136 0.162

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory 94.56%
Sudden Ambush 89.87%
Voice of Thunder 91.49%
Words of Warning 98.14%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 36733 22.63 40.75%
II 104366 31.12 80.44%
III 51219 34.7 88.36%
IV 11304 37.97 98.15%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 14965
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 43224
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 75651
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 10910
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 62
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1622
Lose: Adversary condition 12476
Win: Sacrifice victory 490
Lose: Scenario condition 1842
Win: Scenario condition 10037
Lose: Blight pool ran out 26853
Lose: Spirit destroyed 5490

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.508 Win Model: -0.186

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.206 Win Model: 0.173
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 105406 41.85% 31.96 75.16%
2 54327 43.47% 31.96 75.19%
3 21532 36.41% 33.56 79.09%
4 20982 29.99% 40.8 80.89%
5 261 30.08% 35.18 85.06%
6 1114 21.64% 39.01 87.7%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-07 12:49:13 (Pacific Time)