Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 1887 37.64% 29.65 -1.564 74.19% -0.363 0.21
Dahan Insurrection 4 9825 38.74% 55.69 10.301 68.76% 0.049 0.4501
Elemental Invocation 1 13 53.85% 31.62 -0.577 76.92% -0.015 0.4505
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 6684 10.42% 45.65 4.603 79.76% -0.428 -0.0524
Powers Long Forgotten 1 2803 43.79% 35.88 0.909 76.63% -0.344 0.103
Rituals of Terror 3 1995 41.21% 40.1 4.533 76.99% -0.201 0.4206
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 349 76.22% 34.87 1.402 56.73% -0.671 -0.0469
Second Wave 0 7420 43.48% 30.68 -0.66 76.79% -0.462 -0.043
The Great River 3 115 44.35% 31.5 0.425 64.35% -1.138 0.3473
Ward the Shores 2 859 46.84% 34.56 0.386 62.05% -1.001 0.0292

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 65221 41.3% 30.84 -0.513 76.39% -0.873 -0.5185
1 Thematic 6751 51.41% 45.7 3.123 58.27% -0.665 -0.1678
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 25910 44.22% 31.05 -0.689 75.3% -0.417 -0.2279
2 Coastline 2834 40.17% 32.39 -0.255 77.24% -0.356 -0.2215
2 Fragment 704 48.09% 26.47 -2.633 69.89% -0.832 -0.4065
2 Heart 348 43.93% 27.65 -2.381 70.98% -0.852 -0.5614
2 Opposite Shores 4483 40.97% 32.3 -0.546 77.49% -0.373 -0.1468
2 Thematic 2789 47.3% 41.99 1.859 65.58% -0.239 -0.1943
2 Top to Top 690 48.4% 31.59 -0.592 71.45% -0.517 -0.4
3 Coastline 70 49.28% 32.07 -1.039 62.86% -0.172 -0.2102
3 Other 384 44.06% 27.84 -2.358 69.01% -0.542 -0.1399
3 Round (Default) 13921 35.56% 33.16 -0.316 79.61% 0.162 0.1935
3 Sunrise 59 35.59% 31.83 -0.857 83.05% 0.185 -0.0681
3 Thematic 879 36.1% 38.51 0.337 72.81% 0.263 -0.0762
4 Coastline 48 22.92% 32.75 -1.869 45.83% -0.301 -0.1783
4 Leaf 40 27.5% 32.38 -1.176 77.5% 0.186 0.2656
4 Other 348 35.28% 33.73 -0.9 82.18% 0.593 0.6744
4 Reverse Snake 4 0.0% 45.75 2.614 100.0% 0.121 -0.671
4 Snake 12 66.67% 32.92 -1.647 50.0% -0.161 -0.0352
4 Thematic 2698 32.71% 46.43 2.555 72.91% 0.727 -0.3513
4 Trapezoid (Default) 11013 31.65% 38.78 1.139 80.33% 0.714 0.6815
5 Other 64 38.1% 38.55 1.673 90.63% 1.53 1.3131
5 Thematic 10 60.0% 55.9 8.336 100.0% 2.126 -0.6417

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 3745 31.78 -2.205 52.71% -2.089 -0.021
Aid From Lesser Spirits 3523 33.81 -1.186 57.31% -1.858 0.0583
All Things Weaken 875 29.14 -3.264 44.0% -2.392 -0.2322
Back Against the Wall 3348 32.6 -1.804 54.45% -1.987 0.105
Disintegrating Ecosystem 3545 28.47 -3.842 48.63% -2.255 -0.0334
Downward Spiral 12299 28.97 -3.086 55.0% -2.074 -0.0594
Erosion of Will 3642 30.34 -2.848 50.27% -2.212 -0.0003
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 361 36.84 0.473 77.01% -0.894 -0.1819
Memory Fades to Dust 12340 28.33 -3.45 51.1% -2.265 -0.0496
Power Corrodes the Spirit 868 31.14 -2.327 51.38% -2.055 -0.0348
Promising Farmlands 3638 28.47 -3.813 47.33% -2.311 -0.0961
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 230 39.11 1.457 82.17% -0.548 -0.1313
Thriving Communities 825 29.34 -3.16 48.61% -2.179 -0.0723
Tipping Point 2448 29.8 -3.201 48.73% -2.225 -0.0085
Unnatural Proliferation 960 31.59 -1.993 50.0% -2.105 -0.0245
Untended Land Crumbles 867 30.42 -2.608 50.87% -2.12 -0.0247

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 25872 40.42% 31.08 -0.532 76.76% 0.313 -0.7602
B 25919 39.66% 31.49 -0.392 77.33% 0.351 -0.8136
C 29036 39.3% 32.71 -0.041 77.11% 0.37 -1.0271
D 24378 40.11% 31.31 -0.392 77.57% 0.36 -0.7986
E 3316 46.05% 33.23 -0.076 73.04% 0.316 -0.9404
F 5895 42.14% 32.55 -0.399 75.42% 0.247 -0.9789
G 6224 43.22% 32.94 -0.271 74.9% 0.26 -0.9526
H 5862 41.62% 33.1 -0.151 76.32% 0.311 -0.9105
East 4005 42.5% 48.5 4.059 67.79% -0.201 -1.1366
Northeast 3799 49.72% 45.36 2.421 55.41% -0.446 -1.3158
Northwest 1986 43.15% 43.55 2.632 68.23% -0.243 -1.188
Southeast 320 47.34% 38.52 0.012 68.75% -0.328 -1.3108
Southwest 155 54.55% 29.05 -3.718 61.94% -0.789 -1.4144
West 2515 46.67% 41.6 1.592 63.78% -0.473 -1.1383

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 8488 0.0% 21.11 -4.789 73.49% -2.026 0.0126
Not Using Events or Tokens 42423 41.04% 28.89 -1.921 75.48% -0.142 0.0782
Skip Initial Invader Actions 4438 10.75% 41.4 3.084 91.46% 0.581 -0.1248
Start of Game Growth 6066 13.51% 39.64 2.254 89.45% 0.398 -0.0612
Unlimited Undo 13159 35.13% 34.83 0.948 82.15% 0.41 0.0077
Using Tokens but Not Events 14991 27.81% 32.29 -0.377 83.84% 0.186 0.1396

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 12199 32.42% 32.22 -0.676 78.6% -0.211 -0.064
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 4478 49.09% 32.52 -0.738 72.67% -0.218 0.0188
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 1931 40.39% 34.62 -0.309 75.71% -0.075 -0.1612
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4804 32.77% 39.25 1.682 82.72% 0.345 -0.024
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 2550 35.52% 36.57 0.252 77.06% -0.056 -0.2889
Fractured Days Split the Sky 472 34.89% 39.5 1.669 77.12% -0.04 0.2939
Heart of the Wildfire 4041 52.61% 33.53 -0.74 70.03% -0.171 0.1769
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 11241 30.45% 39.13 1.461 81.75% 0.247 -0.0513
Lightning's Swift Strike 9980 40.79% 34.36 0.137 74.68% -0.112 0.157
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 578 42.53% 36.57 0.165 76.47% -0.011 -0.3716
Many Minds Move as One 775 33.03% 36.37 0.434 82.45% 0.253 -0.2603
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 10605 36.76% 37.66 1.223 78.63% 0.235 0.0378
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 1910 40.67% 35.68 0.24 77.23% 0.12 0.1675
River Surges in Sunlight 14289 37.33% 36.7 0.764 76.95% -0.164 0.0027
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 5958 37.78% 36.95 0.634 76.22% 0.005 0.1539
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 5166 48.97% 30.17 -1.56 73.5% -0.252 0.1976
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 7613 27.4% 38.92 1.249 81.7% 0.034 -0.03
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1298 42.65% 33.96 -0.677 73.57% -0.104 -0.1231
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 2375 30.78% 41.25 1.97 82.44% 0.179 0.3947
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 769 59.77% 32.57 -1.172 68.53% -0.066 -0.0296
Vital Strength of the Earth 7804 34.79% 28.96 -1.791 75.87% -0.311 0.5537
Volcano Looming High 156 41.03% 36.72 0.275 72.44% -0.068 -0.169

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory 94.63%
Sudden Ambush 89.75%
Voice of Thunder 91.5%
Words of Warning 98.16%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 25269 22.34 38.98%
II 71395 30.71 80.01%
III 34931 34.23 88.17%
IV 7687 37.48 97.97%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 6416
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 19017
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 32997
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4788
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1096
Lose: Adversary condition 8831
Win: Sacrifice victory 332
Lose: Scenario condition 1349
Win: Scenario condition 7289
Lose: Blight pool ran out 18813
Lose: Spirit destroyed 3890

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.389 Win Model: -0.186

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.207 Win Model: -0.391
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 71987 42.3% 32.24 74.69%
2 37787 43.92% 32.0 74.78%
3 15319 35.86% 33.33 78.9%
4 14189 31.89% 40.08 78.87%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)