Spirit Island Digital

Detailed Statistics:
Thunderspeaker

Games Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
165898	40.58%	33.1	76.0%

Results vs. Adversaries

Adversary	Level	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Adversary	—	0	63972	25.07%	23.09	0.000	86.87%	0.000	0.0000
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	0	2	661	38.64%	29.53	-0.846	81.39%	-0.355	-0.0657
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	1	3	478	43.31%	35.21	1.803	81.17%	-0.222	0.1919
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	2	5	530	56.33%	38.63	3.722	70.19%	-0.787	0.0963
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	3	6	590	68.76%	39.23	4.196	65.42%	-0.873	0.3691
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	4	8	344	88.66%	37.91	4.227	45.93%	-1.397	0.0995
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	5	9	135	96.3%	36.22	3.638	34.81%	-1.691	0.248
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony)	6	10	637	86.66%	35.44	2.765	23.55%	-2.551	-0.5079
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	0	1	6054	31.31%	26.77	-1.744	86.64%	0.008	0.049
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia	1	2	4521	36.22%	31.37	0.506	85.95%	0.077	0.0589

Results in Scenarios

Scenario	Difficulty	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
Blitz	0	2200	38.41%	29.6	-1.516	74.45%	-0.353	0.2123
Dahan Insurrection	4	11310	38.01%	55.92	10.399	69.88%	0.061	0.4609
Despicable Theft	2	184	35.87%	33.61	1.317	86.41%	0.048	0.322
Elemental Invocation	1	95	52.63%	31.6	-1.053	65.26%	-0.414	0.0889
Guard the Isle's Heart	0	7904	10.02%	46.16	4.755	80.3%	-0.419	-0.0539
Powers Long Forgotten	1	3442	40.51%	37.47	1.107	78.36%	-0.344	0.1026
Rituals of Terror	3	2311	41.12%	39.92	4.489	77.11%	-0.228	0.4166
Rituals of the Destroying Flame	3	392	76.02%	35.36	1.589	57.14%	-0.625	0.0212
Second Wave	0	8572	43.01%	30.77	-0.629	77.26%	-0.444	-0.0146
The Great River	3	171	49.12%	30.61	-0.011	57.31%	-1.446	0.0267
Ward the Shores	2	986	47.09%	34.58	0.313	61.16%	-1.064	-0.0319

Results using Layouts

# Boards	Layout	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
1	Single Board	78697	40.9%	30.85	-0.48	76.73%	-0.662	-0.5753
1	Thematic	7804	51.29%	45.39	2.99	59.05%	-0.572	-0.295
2	Archipelago	9	55.56%	46.33	5.134	100.0%	0.724	0.7308
2	Bottom to Bottom (Default)	30279	44.21%	30.92	-0.743	75.23%	-0.36	-0.3341
2	Coastline	3406	40.16%	32.33	-0.283	76.98%	-0.3	-0.3244
2	Fragment	818	47.22%	26.78	-2.464	71.03%	-0.706	-0.4831
2	Heart	404	44.68%	27.76	-2.275	71.53%	-0.748	-0.6482
2	Opposite Shores	5390	41.01%	32.25	-0.577	77.68%	-0.288	-0.2223
2	Thematic	3125	46.9%	42.11	1.931	66.4%	-0.247	-0.3136
2	Top to Top	836	49.06%	31.67	-0.547	72.49%	-0.369	-0.4383

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card	Completed	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Pall Upon the Land	4336	31.87	-2.149	52.79%	-2.086	-0.0165
Aid From Lesser Spirits	4088	33.78	-1.165	57.68%	-1.854	0.0589
All Things Weaken	1264	30.19	-2.786	46.28%	-2.323	-0.1634
Back Against the Wall	3883	32.77	-1.701	54.85%	-1.984	0.1026
Disintegrating Ecosystem	4084	28.5	-3.81	48.56%	-2.262	-0.0401
Downward Spiral	14328	28.84	-3.112	55.29%	-2.094	-0.0722
Erosion of Will	4219	30.25	-2.88	50.01%	-2.242	-0.0343
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking	537	37.46	0.729	78.4%	-0.83	-0.1516
Memory Fades to Dust	14416	28.25	-3.448	51.39%	-2.283	-0.0685
Power Corrodes the Spirit	1258	31.39	-2.242	52.46%	-2.043	-0.0218
Promising Farmlands	4200	28.56	-3.74	47.76%	-2.312	-0.1035
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly	333	39.31	1.538	83.48%	-0.487	-0.0757
Thriving Communities	1229	30.3	-2.781	50.28%	-2.115	-0.0266
Tipping Point	2450	29.81	-3.194	48.78%	-2.237	-0.012
Unnatural Proliferation	1428	31.93	-1.894	50.49%	-2.125	-0.0439
Untended Land Crumbles	1235	30.19	-2.758	50.53%	-2.177	-0.0751

Results Starting on Boards

Board	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A	30156	40.05%	30.94	-0.572	77.04%	0.261	-0.4268
B	30286	39.38%	31.37	-0.423	77.61%	0.305	-0.4789
C	34110	39.0%	32.8	-0.016	77.37%	0.327	-0.6862
D	28288	40.2%	31.22	-0.416	77.68%	0.316	-0.4615
E	4964	44.56%	33.67	0.109	74.8%	0.339	-0.5556
East	4825	39.78%	49.5	4.28	70.13%	-0.123	-0.6993
F	7810	42.04%	32.57	-0.39	75.7%	0.209	-0.6321
G	7996	42.1%	33.02	-0.249	75.61%	0.223	-0.6088
H	7530	41.01%	32.98	-0.208	76.65%	0.26	-0.5792
Northeast	4246	49.49%	45.74	2.605	56.45%	-0.358	-0.8828
Northwest	2195	43.0%	43.79	2.719	68.38%	-0.194	-0.7894
Southeast	427	45.54%	39.25	0.155	69.79%	-0.28	-0.9091
Southwest	203	56.93%	29.0	-3.751	60.1%	-0.801	-0.9991
West	2862	47.09%	41.82	1.596	63.87%	-0.414	-0.741

Results Using Options

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
No Blight Card	9928	0.0%	20.85	-4.895	73.34%	-2.065	-0.0126
Not Using Events or Tokens	51178	40.12%	28.82	-1.869	76.12%	-0.12	0.0949
Skip Initial Invader Actions	5336	10.4%	41.92	2.944	91.49%	0.519	-0.1677
Start of Game Growth	7480	12.99%	40.37	2.4	89.57%	0.404	-0.0652
Unlimited Undo	16044	34.68%	34.65	0.873	82.5%	0.413	-0.01
Using Tokens but Not Events	17704	26.73%	32.77	-0.197	84.56%	0.199	0.1485

Results With Allies

Option	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Score Model	Win Rate	Win Model	Differential
A Spread of Rampant Green	14080	32.38%	32.14	-0.72	78.86%	-0.194	-0.09
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares	5051	48.74%	32.29	-0.816	73.21%	-0.213	-0.0147
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot	2337	40.15%	34.47	-0.351	77.02%	-0.022	-0.1356
Eyes Watch From the Trees	5985	31.75%	38.9	1.518	83.31%	0.332	-0.0725
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp	3149	34.48%	36.68	0.354	78.53%	-0.008	-0.313
Fractured Days Split the Sky	786	36.75%	40.45	1.941	76.21%	-0.005	0.3434
Heart of the Wildfire	4490	52.67%	33.39	-0.794	70.18%	-0.171	0.1477
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds	13287	29.77%	40.09	1.659	82.54%	0.281	-0.0615
Lightning's Swift Strike	11540	40.44%	34.29	0.097	74.84%	-0.113	0.1126
Lure of the Deep Wilderness	1272	41.99%	37.54	0.378	76.97%	-0.017	-0.304

Minor Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Absorb Corruption	1289	2.986	30.328	75.8%
Animated Wrackroot	1150	3.037	33.219	81.91%
Bats Scout for Raids by Darkness	2030	4.268	36.702	79.26%
Birds Cry Warning	3609	4.551	37.643	78.47%
Blood Draws Predators	1862	4.562	37.523	78.41%
Call of the Dahan Ways	13912	2.878	30.568	79.34%
Call To Bloodshed	17660	3.37	33.057	82.2%
Call to Ferocity	5483	4.249	37.249	81.16%
Call to Guard	5047	4.474	37.578	80.52%
Call To Isolation	17615	3.982	35.77	82.49%

Major Power Cards

Power Card	Kept	Average Difficulty	Average Score	Win Rate
Accelerated Rot	1295	1.829	25.952	77.53%
Angry Bears	485	3.918	35.439	81.03%
Bargains of Power and Protection	693	4.922	35.352	70.85%
Blazing Renewal	1466	3.435	27.854	66.23%
Bloodwrack Plague	644	3.502	32.898	75.93%
Cast Down into the Briny Deep	304	2.503	31.405	79.28%
Cleansing Floods	1091	1.842	25.716	71.86%
Death Falls Gently from Open Blossoms	494	2.856	31.597	81.58%
Dissolve the Bonds of Kinship	694	3.082	27.827	69.6%
Draw Towards a Consuming Void	91	3.978	32.198	72.53%

Unique Power Cards

Power Card	Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory	94.65%
Sudden Ambush	89.85%
Voice of Thunder	91.58%
Words of Warning	98.16%

Terror Level

Terror Level	Completed	Average Score	Win Rate
I	30145	22.37	40.38%
II	85122	30.88	80.25%
III	41465	34.39	88.29%
IV	9166	37.55	98.05%

Results

Result	Completed
Lose: Adversary condition	10297
Lose: Blight pool ran out	22152
Lose: Invader deck ran out	1298
Lose: Scenario condition	1556
Lose: Spirit destroyed	4519
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I)	8738
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II)	43149
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III)	24592
Win: Sacrifice victory	410
Win: Scenario condition	8505
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV)	6218

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.406 Win Model: -0.186

Diff.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate	Win Likelihood
-3	2110	11.34%	26.69	91.04%	92.74%
-2	788	10.81%	26.57	89.97%	91.38%
-1	1611	14.82%	24.22	88.7%	89.79%
0	52311	25.53%	21.2	86.35%	87.95%
1	16359	27.3%	27.19	88.15%	85.83%
2	9266	35.24%	29.56	86.26%	83.4%
3	9558	39.47%	33.25	82.28%	80.66%
4	11870	38.28%	37.78	82.5%	77.58%
5	7092	44.79%	39.72	74.0%	74.18%
6	11420	55.41%	40.41	70.68%	70.45%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.222 Win Model: -0.275

Num.	Completed	Blight Flip Rate	Average Score	Win Rate
1	86546	41.9%	32.16	75.13%
2	44313	43.87%	31.9	74.89%
3	17791	35.86%	33.38	79.21%
4	17248	30.84%	40.57	79.89%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.