Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 50 76.0% 29.48 -0.439 48.0% -0.523 -0.2424
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 27 55.56% 39.3 4.008 62.96% -0.257 0.1327
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 16 25.0% 29.94 -0.479 18.75% -1.76 -0.8896
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 11 36.36% 31.64 0.291 18.18% -1.689 -0.4322
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 28.0 -2.165 0.0% -2.196 -0.6676
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 47.5 8.368 25.0% -0.789 1.2813
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 77 40.26% 30.7 -0.505 55.84% -0.673 -0.635
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 58 48.28% 36.16 2.438 67.24% 0.018 -0.0121
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 74 51.35% 43.11 5.723 62.16% -0.356 -0.3513
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 32 62.5% 45.5 6.978 53.13% -0.59 -0.2984
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 28 67.86% 45.5 7.258 46.43% -0.583 -0.2219
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 56.0% 39.68 4.06 20.0% -1.551 -0.7225
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 63.64% 53.0 9.97 45.45% -0.802 0.4423
The Kingdom of England 0 1 68 48.53% 30.07 -0.646 55.88% -0.548 -0.2164
The Kingdom of England 1 3 40 70.0% 33.02 1.176 50.0% -0.655 -0.1546
The Kingdom of England 2 4 30 46.67% 36.5 1.835 43.33% -1.258 -0.2885
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 57.14% 30.43 0.208 21.43% -1.411 0.1673
The Kingdom of England 4 7 26 84.62% 34.54 2.403 23.08% -1.749 -0.2482
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 54.55% 52.0 9.817 36.36% -0.992 1.2598
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 40 70.0% 24.02 -3.279 32.5% -1.276 -0.7509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 18 72.22% 27.78 -1.626 33.33% -1.083 -0.1896
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 23.0 -4.423 0.0% -2.251 -0.1213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 4 50.0% 24.75 -3.004 0.0% -1.44 0.7466
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 3 33.33% 27.33 -1.146 0.0% -1.015 1.1269
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 2 50.0% 32.5 0.49 0.0% -0.988 0.8351
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 11 54.55% 37.64 2.86 9.09% -2.049 0.0669
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 42 54.76% 27.69 -1.877 52.38% -0.725 -0.636
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 38 42.11% 31.32 -0.095 55.26% -0.613 -0.5933
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 37 64.86% 34.86 1.64 54.05% -0.618 -0.3953
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 32 78.13% 38.84 4.002 46.88% -0.613 -0.3277
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 58.33% 47.42 7.688 58.33% -0.538 0.2294
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 32.57 0.705 14.29% -1.497 -0.3366
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 18 61.11% 34.44 0.527 16.67% -2.176 -1.0432
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 56 51.79% 32.13 0.32 66.07% -0.188 -0.308
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 24 79.17% 26.58 -1.747 33.33% -1.105 -0.387
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 28 67.86% 40.89 4.804 60.71% -0.346 0.0961
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 66.67% 52.5 10.032 66.67% -0.183 1.068
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 13 76.92% 38.0 3.235 30.77% -1.236 -0.1126
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 9.001 33.33% -0.536 1.5104
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 16 81.25% 39.69 2.726 12.5% -2.263 -0.3286

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1557 50.42 31.79 -0.204 63.97% -0.191 0.1361
2 Coastline 564 52.85 32.56 -0.108 57.8% -0.239 -0.0886
3 Coastline 192 59.9 35.31 0.964 65.63% 0.221 0.1744
4 Coastline 101 29.7 35.22 -0.11 80.2% 0.22 0.3907

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 108 29.12 -2.263 52.78% -0.842 1.2286
Aid From Lesser Spirits 92 33.2 -0.584 63.04% -0.461 1.4612
All Things Weaken 110 28.08 -2.846 49.09% -1.048 1.1053
Back Against the Wall 64 28.97 -2.138 50.0% -0.844 1.252
Disintegrating Ecosystem 80 26.74 -3.185 55.0% -0.705 1.5207
Downward Spiral 99 27.22 -3.158 51.52% -0.927 1.092
Erosion of Will 102 27.36 -3.139 46.08% -0.971 1.2391
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 32 33.28 -0.481 78.13% -0.027 0.666
Memory Fades to Dust 83 29.78 -2.114 56.63% -0.757 1.4582
Power Corrodes the Spirit 101 25.94 -4.135 44.55% -1.152 0.8654
Promising Farmlands 71 23.96 -4.562 42.25% -1.21 1.0034
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 21 33.0 -0.302 66.67% -0.04 0.39
Thriving Communities 91 28.46 -3.041 50.55% -1.05 1.0456
Unnatural Proliferation 99 27.84 -2.821 52.53% -0.875 1.211
Untended Land Crumbles 73 29.79 -2.11 52.05% -0.8 1.2963

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 593 53.3% 32.42 -0.025 67.45% 0.279 -0.8224
B 598 51.17% 32.87 0.088 64.38% 0.167 -1.0294
C 570 45.61% 32.76 -0.097 65.26% 0.041 -1.3876
D 366 46.3% 31.98 -0.668 58.74% -0.249 -1.4398
E 462 50.98% 33.54 0.56 69.7% 0.357 -0.9423
F 447 47.87% 34.66 0.876 66.22% 0.213 -1.0416
G 329 55.02% 33.02 0.183 59.88% 0.182 -1.0603
H 300 54.67% 32.23 -0.369 54.33% -0.116 -1.3734

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 17.5 -7.954 25.0% -1.186 0.8628
Not Using Events or Tokens 16 56.25% 25.38 -2.855 50.0% -0.422 -0.2019
Skip Initial Invader Actions 44 27.91% 45.57 4.114 70.45% -0.388 -1.0932
Start of Game Growth 113 25.89% 42.32 3.567 83.19% 1.235 0.7838
Unlimited Undo 129 55.12% 35.32 0.636 62.79% 0.037 -0.38
Using Tokens but Not Events 150 47.26% 30.66 -0.643 70.67% 0.122 0.0705

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 315 22.33 2.22%
II 762 30.75 41.99%
III 961 34.25 85.95%
IV 376 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.142 Win Model: -0.323
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1557 50.42% 31.79 63.97%
2 568 53.0% 32.64 58.1%
3 189 59.26% 35.11 65.08%
4 100 30.0% 35.22 80.0%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 820
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 318
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 375
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 52
Win: Sacrifice victory 9
Lose: Scenario condition 455
Lose: Blight pool ran out 355
Lose: Spirit destroyed 18

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)