Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 93 66.67% 27.98 -0.261 40.86% -0.52 0.0315
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 59 54.24% 34.17 -4.66 47.46% -1.218 -0.3402
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 28 21.43% 32.54 -2.552 25.0% -0.613 0.5062
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 26 38.46% 37.35 4.381 30.77% -0.673 0.8579
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 38.46% 30.38 0.0 7.69%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 8 25.0% 45.25 2.721 12.5% -0.675 1.5859
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 139 42.45% 31.02 -0.614 55.4% -0.553 -0.3086
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 104 47.12% 37.09 7.066 69.23% 0.643 0.5165
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 114 53.51% 40.85 0.803 56.14% -0.605 -0.4889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 61 68.85% 45.1 0.0 50.82%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 41 70.73% 46.22 3.785 48.78% -0.305 0.1613
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29 62.07% 39.52 0.0 20.69%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 25 80.0% 45.4 0.0 28.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 112 48.21% 29.64 -3.53 53.57% -0.782 -0.2656
The Kingdom of England 1 3 59 64.41% 33.14 11.408 47.46% 0.08 0.6894
The Kingdom of England 2 4 54 48.15% 36.85 5.191 46.3% 0.228 1.3548
The Kingdom of England 3 6 39 56.41% 33.69 8.263 25.64% -0.078 1.6659
The Kingdom of England 4 7 40 77.5% 33.98 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 54.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 50.0% 49.92 12.106 29.17% -0.411 1.8877
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 74 66.22% 29.74 -1.27 44.59% -0.114 0.7887
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 47 80.85% 25.32 -2.433 25.53% -0.62 0.2703
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 33 9.09% 23.48 -1.171 0.0% -0.281 2.1213
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 18 38.89% 32.39 0.0 11.11%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 11 36.36% 28.91 0.0 0.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 13 61.54% 35.08 0.0 7.69%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 50 42.0% 35.98 6.516 6.0% -0.586 1.7809
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 6 83.33% 36.33 2.447 83.33% 0.434 0.3098
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 1 0.0% 28.0 0.881 0.0% -0.424 0.4458
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 1 100.0% 74.0 20.346 100.0% 0.333 2.0311
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 84 53.57% 28.36 0.43 52.38% -0.015 0.152
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 78 48.72% 32.1 0.0 53.85%
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 70 62.86% 33.14 -0.027 50.0% -0.208 0.245
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 57 77.19% 41.49 9.056 52.63% 0.093 0.403
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 22 63.64% 41.68 0.0 45.45%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 17 76.47% 38.18 14.483 29.41% 0.239 1.2201
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 39 66.67% 34.56 -2.885 15.38% -0.811 0.3805
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 102 50.0% 32.77 3.422 67.65% 0.625 0.5684
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 50 78.0% 29.2 0.867 40.0% 0.082 0.8565
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 55 63.64% 38.93 3.917 54.55% -0.061 0.6501
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 72.41% 47.93 0.0 55.17%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 38.19 0.0 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 81.82% 40.7 7.769 9.09% -0.321 1.6983

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2834 53.04 31.0 59.67% -0.405 0.6115 -0.218
1 Thematic 1 100.0 16.0 0.0%
2 Coastline 1039 54.01 32.68 57.75% -0.315 0.2874 -0.356
3 Coastline 348 60.81 34.41 65.8% 1.049 0.2656 0.138
4 Coastline 164 33.54 33.82 75.0% 0.062 0.1787 0.577
5 Coastline 1 0.0 25.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 6 20.0 38.33 83.33% -0.381 -0.9696 -0.15
7 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 195 30.06 55.38% 0.499 2.402 0.253
Aid From Lesser Spirits 150 32.63 59.33% 0.353 2.0829 0.692
All Things Weaken 196 26.69 44.9% -1.109 0.876 0.325
Back Against the Wall 128 28.61 50.0% -0.612 1.2046 -0.108
Disintegrating Ecosystem 144 27.17 50.69% -0.102 1.9486 0.328
Downward Spiral 191 26.65 49.21% -0.254 1.7395 0.112
Erosion of Will 186 27.87 47.85% -0.001 2.0817 0.318
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 74 34.26 78.38% 0.417 0.8577 0.131
Memory Fades to Dust 181 26.18 48.07% -1.375 0.7096 0.148
Power Corrodes the Spirit 196 25.79 41.84% -0.621 1.3174 -0.424
Promising Farmlands 125 23.93 40.8% -0.613 1.4332 -0.497
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 43 33.77 69.77% 0.243 0.6679 0.655
Thriving Communities 180 28.24 51.11% 0.495 2.4791 -0.032
Unnatural Proliferation 182 28.13 53.3% -0.097 1.867 -0.063
Untended Land Crumbles 157 28.27 50.32% 0.057 2.0502 0.162

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1125 55.31% 31.62 62.93% 0.255 1.0522 -0.137
B 1107 53.57% 32.01 61.25% -0.193 0.5503 0.353
C 1016 50.1% 32.36 62.5% 0.153 0.7214 -0.109
D 665 49.1% 31.51 56.54% -0.565 0.2306 -0.344
E 854 52.3% 33.3 68.03% 0.788 1.4353 0.628
F 805 49.0% 33.69 62.61% -0.401 0.3232 0.295
G 573 55.69% 32.53 60.38% -0.031 0.701 0.43
H 512 54.49% 31.94 52.34% 0.07 0.7824 -0.221
East 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 29.1 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 40 55.0% 23.7 40.0% -0.425 -0.2502
Skip Initial Invader Actions 77 32.43% 43.31 76.62% 0.719 0.5769 0.353
Start of Game Growth 185 30.77% 40.24 80.54% 0.548 -0.2123 0.353
Unlimited Undo 238 56.71% 35.32 65.13% -0.215 -0.8189 0.131
Using Tokens but Not Events 358 47.99% 29.06 63.97% -0.49 -0.6469 0.307

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 665 22.56 1.95%
II 1443 30.98 41.23%
III 1648 34.53 85.07%
IV 638 37.77 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.172 Win Model: -0.022
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2845 53.12% 30.99 59.54%
2 1038 53.97% 32.8 58.19%
3 340 60.47% 34.16 65.59%
4 164 33.54% 33.76 74.39%
6 7 16.67% 36.0 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1390
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 588
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 636
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 147
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Scenario condition 860
Lose: Blight pool ran out 697
Lose: Spirit destroyed 34

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)