Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 95 66.32% 28.04 7.106 41.05% 0.256 0.7273
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 59 54.24% 34.17 0.0 47.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 30 23.33% 31.9 -4.384 23.33% -0.803 0.3462
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 29 41.38% 37.41 0.0 31.03%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 42.86% 30.57 0.0 7.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 26 57.69% 36.19 1.251 3.85% -0.975 1.2951
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 158 45.57% 30.89 0.395 55.06% 0.216 0.1127
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 125 50.4% 36.11 -0.999 66.4% -0.569 -0.8831
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 121 52.89% 40.66 2.163 55.37% -0.461 -0.3056
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 66 68.18% 44.94 9.823 50.0% 0.142 0.4865
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 42 71.43% 46.74 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29 62.07% 39.52 0.0 20.69%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 87.5% 40.0 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 0 1 122 50.0% 29.75 -4.797 53.28% -0.807 -0.3553
The Kingdom of England 1 3 61 62.3% 33.85 9.47 49.18% 0.313 0.872
The Kingdom of England 2 4 64 51.56% 37.2 11.561 46.88% 0.353 1.4764
The Kingdom of England 3 6 45 62.22% 34.11 14.925 26.67% 0.353 1.9475
The Kingdom of England 4 7 45 77.78% 34.09 0.0 20.0%
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 54.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 25 52.0% 49.12 0.0 28.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 78 66.67% 30.13 4.496 46.15% 0.327 1.0758
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 58 81.03% 25.05 -1.29 24.14% -0.612 0.5915
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 44 18.18% 26.23 0.0 6.82%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22 40.91% 33.55 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 30.77% 32.77 0.0 7.69%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 25 56.0% 34.68 0.0 8.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 62 45.16% 35.02 0.0 4.84%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 15 53.33% 35.6 4.257 73.33% 0.414 0.1681
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 33.5 -2.678 50.0% -0.262 0.6651
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 35.0 -4.258 33.33% -0.643 0.4347
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 12 41.67% 34.0 -1.522 25.0% -1.25 -0.4272
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 39.67 0.0 33.33%
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10 50.0% 51.0 14.343 50.0% 0.161 1.4921
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 6 33.33% 59.0 20.891 50.0% 0.203 1.8696
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 100 53.0% 29.21 1.582 56.0% 0.663 0.7009
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 87 45.98% 32.95 3.777 56.32% 0.375 0.4677
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 78 66.67% 32.28 1.341 47.44% -0.01 0.269
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 64 76.56% 41.64 2.04 53.13% -0.358 0.0293
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 23 60.87% 42.65 0.0 47.83%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 19 78.95% 38.58 0.0 31.58%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 52 67.31% 34.79 1.424 17.31% -0.923 0.1946
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 112 50.89% 32.56 0.581 66.96% 0.248 -0.1839
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 53 79.25% 28.43 -2.098 37.74% -0.097 0.6115
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 56 64.29% 39.14 0.0 55.36%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 72.73% 48.82 12.525 57.58% 0.47 1.878
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 38.19 0.0 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 81.82% 40.7 0.0 9.09%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3176 53.5 31.08 58.41% 0.264 0.8006 -0.052
1 Thematic 2 100.0 29.0 50.0% 0.144 1.1135
2 Coastline 1138 54.59 32.85 57.47% -0.129 -0.0199 -0.51
3 Coastline 374 59.79 34.65 66.31% -0.264 -0.2063 -0.015
4 Coastline 178 35.39 33.95 74.16% -0.009 -0.54 0.854
5 Coastline 1 0.0 25.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 6 20.0 38.33 83.33% -0.286
7 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 224 30.12 54.46% -0.68 1.2797 0.246
Aid From Lesser Spirits 167 32.59 57.49% -0.388 1.3421 0.596
All Things Weaken 229 26.89 44.98% -0.158 1.9087 0.352
Back Against the Wall 142 28.94 50.0% -0.078 1.8207 -0.303
Disintegrating Ecosystem 161 27.2 48.45% -0.66 1.4364 0.117
Downward Spiral 223 28.09 50.67% 0.28 2.1532 0.536
Erosion of Will 200 27.95 48.0% -0.212 1.8988 0.284
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 82 34.21 76.83% 0.519 1.0765 0.008
Memory Fades to Dust 200 26.19 46.5% -0.597 1.4691 0.212
Power Corrodes the Spirit 213 25.95 40.85% 0.489 2.397 -0.715
Promising Farmlands 142 24.8 42.25% -0.175 1.8493 -0.688
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 46 33.96 71.74% 0.79 1.2072 0.629
Thriving Communities 196 28.07 49.49% -0.033 2.0265 -0.272
Unnatural Proliferation 207 27.61 49.28% -1.272 0.6664 -0.351
Untended Land Crumbles 173 27.53 47.98% -0.861 1.1534 0.095

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1285 56.36% 32.0 60.54% -0.113 0.6278 -0.133
B 1211 53.97% 31.92 60.86% 0.091 0.7916 0.312
C 1107 50.05% 32.4 62.33% -0.452 0.0215 -0.101
D 734 50.48% 31.47 56.4% -0.272 0.4164 -0.383
E 930 51.84% 33.31 67.2% -0.054 0.5069 0.531
F 874 48.91% 33.84 62.7% -0.022 0.627 0.344
G 619 56.24% 32.64 60.26% 0.502 1.1136 0.429
H 566 55.48% 32.08 51.41% -0.501 0.1502 -0.416
East 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.144 0.8236

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 28.75 66.67% -0.721 1.4699
Not Using Events or Tokens 43 52.38% 24.33 41.86% -0.459 -0.2235
Skip Initial Invader Actions 90 34.12% 44.0 76.67% 0.368 -0.8047 0.335
Start of Game Growth 201 31.12% 41.15 80.6% 0.245 -0.1871 0.7
Unlimited Undo 274 58.11% 35.36 64.6% 0.292 -0.1874 0.134
Using Tokens but Not Events 402 49.87% 29.38 63.93% 0.375 0.526 0.338

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 786 22.68 1.65%
II 1604 31.11 41.33%
III 1802 34.69 85.18%
IV 685 37.95 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.45 Win Model: 0.212
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3191 53.59% 31.07 58.32%
2 1136 54.59% 32.95 57.83%
3 365 59.34% 34.46 66.3%
4 178 35.39% 33.89 73.6%
6 7 16.67% 36.0 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1522
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 655
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 683
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 177
Win: Sacrifice victory 23
Lose: Scenario condition 973
Lose: Blight pool ran out 783
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-31 03:36:05 (Pacific Time)