Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 69 73.91% 28.32 -0.907 44.93% -0.659 -0.3751
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 37 54.05% 37.16 3.209 56.76% -0.457 -0.046
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 21 19.05% 32.05 0.418 23.81% -1.771 -0.8943
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 28.57% 33.64 1.465 21.43% -1.623 -0.3776
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12 41.67% 30.5 -0.157 8.33% -2.177 -0.675
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 47.5 8.541 25.0% -0.764 1.2792
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 98 43.88% 30.47 -0.439 55.1% -0.726 -0.6835
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 81 48.15% 36.33 2.617 67.9% -0.002 -0.021
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 83 55.42% 42.08 5.517 60.24% -0.35 -0.3366
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 42 64.29% 45.45 7.252 54.76% -0.496 -0.2078
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 33 69.7% 47.18 8.31 51.52% -0.378 -0.0111
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 26 57.69% 40.85 4.722 23.08% -1.537 -0.7104
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 63.64% 53.0 10.28 45.45% -0.773 0.4649
The Kingdom of England 0 1 89 46.07% 30.38 -0.321 57.3% -0.458 -0.1262
The Kingdom of England 1 3 49 69.39% 33.08 1.421 48.98% -0.632 -0.1178
The Kingdom of England 2 4 39 48.72% 36.1 2.057 43.59% -1.179 -0.2113
The Kingdom of England 3 6 26 65.38% 31.65 0.947 23.08% -1.554 0.0252
The Kingdom of England 4 7 32 81.25% 34.16 2.126 21.88% -1.931 -0.4329
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 74.0 20.79 100.0% 0.204 2.2768
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14 57.14% 47.57 8.23 28.57% -1.197 1.0504
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 50 74.0% 26.18 -1.989 38.0% -1.0 -0.4862
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 29 75.86% 28.1 -1.082 34.48% -1.071 -0.1716
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 21 14.29% 23.1 -4.419 0.0% -3.016 -0.8734
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 7 28.57% 25.71 -3.146 0.0% -2.059 0.1369
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 60.0% 27.4 -1.231 0.0% -1.501 0.6574
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 60.0% 36.1 2.342 10.0% -2.051 -0.2335
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 20 40.0% 37.9 2.644 10.0% -2.527 -0.4299
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 52 55.77% 27.88 -1.542 53.85% -0.605 -0.5195
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 52 42.31% 32.35 0.661 57.69% -0.482 -0.4485
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 44 59.09% 35.3 1.92 56.82% -0.568 -0.3329
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 40 77.5% 40.23 4.912 50.0% -0.431 -0.1443
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 14 64.29% 46.71 7.559 57.14% -0.555 0.2287
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8 75.0% 30.88 0.168 12.5% -1.577 -0.4106
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 66.67% 32.57 -0.32 14.29% -2.39 -1.2658
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 74 48.65% 32.19 0.486 66.22% -0.148 -0.2493
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 35 77.14% 27.2 -1.505 34.29% -1.196 -0.4175
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 37 67.57% 39.35 4.285 56.76% -0.44 -0.0206
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 19 68.42% 53.21 10.576 68.42% -0.058 1.1955
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 39.47 4.294 33.33% -1.168 -0.0516
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 9.182 33.33% -0.553 1.4459
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 22 86.36% 37.91 2.684 9.09% -2.479 -0.6003

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1992 51.51 31.23 -0.346 61.45% 0.04 0.2128
1 Thematic 1 100.0 16.0 -3.428 0.0% -0.273 0.0892
2 Coastline 763 53.88 32.67 0.142 58.58% -0.004 0.0038
3 Coastline 232 59.05 35.22 1.069 66.81% 0.34 0.1416
4 Coastline 123 30.89 33.98 -0.508 76.42% -0.089 -0.0384

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 135 30.15 -1.698 53.33% -0.754 1.319
Aid From Lesser Spirits 108 32.08 -0.844 59.26% -0.568 1.3505
All Things Weaken 135 27.6 -2.913 48.15% -1.049 1.1216
Back Against the Wall 92 28.77 -2.081 50.0% -0.854 1.2369
Disintegrating Ecosystem 101 26.25 -3.376 50.5% -0.851 1.3733
Downward Spiral 124 26.75 -3.187 50.0% -0.937 1.0857
Erosion of Will 135 27.66 -2.875 48.89% -0.894 1.3146
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 49 34.22 0.143 77.55% 0.038 0.7246
Memory Fades to Dust 118 27.01 -3.262 49.15% -1.078 1.1408
Power Corrodes the Spirit 141 25.22 -4.172 41.84% -1.286 0.7383
Promising Farmlands 86 24.05 -4.555 43.02% -1.258 0.956
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 28 33.75 0.113 71.43% 0.053 0.4628
Thriving Communities 125 27.76 -3.049 48.8% -0.993 1.1016
Unnatural Proliferation 132 28.02 -2.602 53.03% -0.877 1.2094
Untended Land Crumbles 101 28.47 -2.653 48.51% -0.924 1.1816

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 780 54.63% 31.85 -0.086 65.13% 0.21 -0.5499
B 789 51.33% 32.33 0.018 62.86% 0.114 -0.7435
C 728 47.25% 32.64 0.03 64.15% 0.056 -1.0332
D 468 46.68% 31.74 -0.524 57.69% -0.226 -1.0761
E 593 52.37% 33.45 0.68 68.63% 0.35 -0.6153
F 568 47.89% 34.22 0.837 64.79% 0.19 -0.7242
G 411 56.93% 32.57 0.114 59.61% 0.162 -0.7435
H 369 54.47% 31.63 -0.49 53.66% -0.156 -1.0707
East 1 100.0% 16.0 -3.428 0.0% -0.273 -0.922

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 23.5 -4.716 50.0% -0.873 1.1828
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 54.84% 22.94 -3.987 38.71% -0.968 -0.7519
Skip Initial Invader Actions 57 30.36% 43.33 3.469 70.18% -0.314 -1.0008
Start of Game Growth 143 27.46% 40.84 3.218 81.12% 1.136 0.6658
Unlimited Undo 166 54.32% 35.45 0.989 65.66% 0.215 -0.2049
Using Tokens but Not Events 241 50.21% 29.56 -0.97 66.39% -0.006 -0.0584

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 430 22.35 1.63%
II 1002 30.84 40.62%
III 1198 34.35 85.56%
IV 481 37.52 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.155 Win Model: -0.19
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1995 51.53% 31.22 61.35%
2 768 53.92% 32.78 58.98%
3 226 58.85% 34.96 66.37%
4 122 31.15% 33.97 76.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1016
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 403
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 480
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 85
Win: Sacrifice victory 14
Lose: Scenario condition 590
Lose: Blight pool ran out 485
Lose: Spirit destroyed 26

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)