Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 94 67.02% 27.86 0.0 40.43%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 59 54.24% 34.17 0.0 47.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 30 23.33% 31.9 -3.554 23.33% -0.796 0.3814
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 29 41.38% 37.41 0.0 31.03%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 14 42.86% 30.57 0.0 7.14%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 22 54.55% 36.59 -0.635 4.55% -1.196 1.0755
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 153 44.44% 30.92 1.024 54.9% 0.086 0.0387
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 123 50.41% 36.12 -0.403 66.67% -0.11 -0.3426
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 119 52.94% 40.73 2.695 55.46% -0.566 -0.3764
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 64 67.19% 45.05 8.086 50.0% -0.078 0.2889
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 42 71.43% 46.74 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29 62.07% 39.52 0.0 20.69%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 40 87.5% 40.0 5.856 20.0% -0.335 1.112
The Kingdom of England 0 1 120 49.17% 29.77 -4.988 53.33% -0.953 -0.3957
The Kingdom of England 1 3 61 62.3% 33.85 10.028 49.18% 0.381 1.059
The Kingdom of England 2 4 63 50.79% 36.95 9.476 46.03% 0.101 1.2551
The Kingdom of England 3 6 45 62.22% 34.11 13.924 26.67% 0.158 1.8349
The Kingdom of England 4 7 45 77.78% 34.09 -2.009 20.0% -0.519 0.9478
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 54.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 25 52.0% 49.12 0.428 28.0% -0.415 2.1486
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 78 66.67% 30.13 7.287 46.15% 0.773 1.446
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 56 80.36% 25.32 -1.222 25.0% -0.466 0.6065
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 44 18.18% 26.23 0.0 6.82%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22 40.91% 33.55 0.0 13.64%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 30.77% 32.77 0.0 7.69%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 25 56.0% 34.68 0.0 8.0%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 62 45.16% 35.02 0.0 4.84%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 12 58.33% 34.92 4.417 75.0% 0.755 0.6621
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 2 50.0% 33.5 -3.736 50.0% -0.312 0.5788
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 3 33.33% 35.0 -5.146 33.33% -0.877 0.3255
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 0.0% 52.33 0.0 66.67%
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 3 66.67% 39.67 7.112 33.33% 0.196 1.4139
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 10 50.0% 51.0 9.682 50.0% 0.002 1.2401
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 5 20.0% 53.8 11.071 40.0% -0.279 1.2783
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 96 54.17% 29.23 3.152 56.25% 1.233 1.4035
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 87 45.98% 32.95 4.276 56.32% 0.558 0.7778
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 78 66.67% 32.28 0.213 47.44% 0.081 0.3604
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 64 76.56% 41.64 1.718 53.13% -0.279 0.1727
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 23 60.87% 42.65 0.0 47.83%
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 19 78.95% 38.58 0.0 31.58%
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 51 68.63% 34.9 1.888 17.65% -0.663 0.4956
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 108 50.0% 32.56 -0.905 66.67% -0.224 -0.6758
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 52 78.85% 28.62 -5.856 38.46% -0.29 0.5126
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 56 64.29% 39.14 0.0 55.36%
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 33 72.73% 48.82 12.223 57.58% 0.466 1.7053
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 38.19 0.0 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 81.82% 40.7 0.0 9.09%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 3123 53.61 31.08 58.44% -0.153 0.51 -0.053
1 Thematic 2 100.0 29.0 50.0% 0.272 1.3283
2 Coastline 1119 54.53 32.8 57.55% -0.411 -0.2103 -0.531
3 Coastline 371 59.73 34.75 66.58% 0.358 -0.1492 0.006
4 Coastline 178 35.39 33.95 74.16% -0.323 -0.3605 0.847
5 Coastline 1 0.0 25.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 6 20.0 38.33 83.33% -0.278
7 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 222 30.24 54.95% -0.228 1.7426 0.258
Aid From Lesser Spirits 163 32.72 57.67% -0.436 1.3417 0.583
All Things Weaken 226 26.73 44.69% -0.93 1.1193 0.338
Back Against the Wall 137 28.93 51.09% 0.806 2.7452 -0.198
Disintegrating Ecosystem 159 27.2 48.43% -0.965 1.1631 0.111
Downward Spiral 219 27.85 50.68% 0.36 2.3214 0.386
Erosion of Will 197 27.94 48.22% -0.349 1.7322 0.293
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 81 34.22 76.54% 0.319 0.8211 0.007
Memory Fades to Dust 196 26.21 46.94% -0.411 1.7296 0.226
Power Corrodes the Spirit 210 25.73 40.0% -0.896 1.0844 -0.729
Promising Farmlands 140 24.94 42.86% -0.13 1.8915 -0.665
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 44 33.75 70.45% 0.336 0.8323 0.641
Thriving Communities 196 28.07 49.49% -0.707 1.3522 -0.279
Unnatural Proliferation 204 27.42 48.53% -1.53 0.4272 -0.346
Untended Land Crumbles 173 27.53 47.98% -1.375 0.6581 0.093

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1265 56.3% 31.99 60.71% -0.358 0.3782 -0.104
B 1193 53.95% 31.92 60.77% -0.227 0.4704 0.35
C 1091 50.14% 32.45 62.51% -0.184 0.286 -0.166
D 725 50.41% 31.55 56.83% 0.068 0.7771 -0.369
E 921 52.13% 33.32 67.32% -0.444 0.1007 0.542
F 861 48.95% 33.83 62.72% 0.261 0.9226 0.304
G 611 55.67% 32.59 60.23% 0.206 0.8366 0.394
H 559 55.64% 32.02 51.52% -0.516 0.1488 -0.325
East 2 100.0% 29.0 50.0%
Northeast 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.272 0.9314

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 28.75 66.67% -0.585 1.6435
Not Using Events or Tokens 43 52.38% 24.33 41.86% -0.045 0.1817
Skip Initial Invader Actions 89 34.52% 44.01 76.4% 0.217 -0.7635 0.343
Start of Game Growth 200 31.28% 41.14 80.5% 0.631 0.1745 0.721
Unlimited Undo 271 58.02% 35.05 64.21% -0.221 -0.772 -0.037
Using Tokens but Not Events 398 49.61% 29.37 63.82% 0.598 0.753 0.356

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 773 22.65 1.68%
II 1581 31.08 41.43%
III 1776 34.66 85.3%
IV 672 37.91 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.75 Win Model: 0.418
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 3138 53.7% 31.07 58.35%
2 1116 54.5% 32.92 57.97%
3 363 59.39% 34.52 66.39%
4 178 35.39% 33.89 73.6%
6 7 16.67% 36.0 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1503
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 647
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 670
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 176
Win: Sacrifice victory 22
Lose: Scenario condition 949
Lose: Blight pool ran out 774
Lose: Spirit destroyed 40

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)