Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 37 67.57% 28.97 -0.963 45.95% -0.734 -0.4504
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 25 52.0% 38.12 3.254 60.0% -0.46 -0.066
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 15 26.67% 30.33 -0.401 20.0% -1.713 -0.852
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 9 44.44% 28.44 -1.273 11.11% -1.764 -0.514
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 7 28.57% 28.0 -2.164 0.0% -2.17 -0.6351
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 30.67 0.072 0.0% -1.091 0.9869
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 68 41.18% 30.31 -0.664 54.41% -0.674 -0.6311
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 49 42.86% 37.33 2.787 69.39% 0.046 0.0199
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 72 51.39% 42.61 5.394 61.11% -0.431 -0.4306
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 27 59.26% 43.33 5.815 48.15% -0.805 -0.5116
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 25 68.0% 46.04 7.443 48.0% -0.485 -0.1148
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 56.0% 39.68 4.11 20.0% -1.481 -0.6429
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 10 60.0% 55.3 11.058 50.0% -0.591 0.6578
The Kingdom of England 0 1 60 48.33% 30.18 -0.666 56.67% -0.524 -0.1931
The Kingdom of England 1 3 36 72.22% 32.56 1.061 50.0% -0.594 -0.1045
The Kingdom of England 2 4 25 44.0% 38.4 2.873 48.0% -1.0 -0.0356
The Kingdom of England 3 6 14 57.14% 30.43 0.368 21.43% -1.31 0.2696
The Kingdom of England 4 7 21 80.95% 32.57 1.332 19.05% -1.882 -0.3674
The Kingdom of England 6 11 11 54.55% 52.0 9.839 36.36% -0.962 1.2956
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 36 66.67% 23.11 -3.798 27.78% -1.464 -0.939
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 16 75.0% 27.0 -2.13 31.25% -1.188 -0.2995
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 9 33.33% 23.0 -4.502 0.0% -2.262 -0.1348
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 25.33 -2.658 0.0% -1.252 0.9326
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 28.0 -3.249 0.0% -0.694 1.4568
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 36.0 1.655 0.0% -0.678 1.1482
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 38.2 2.939 10.0% -1.981 0.1465
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 33 54.55% 24.97 -3.221 42.42% -1.039 -0.9508
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 29 37.93% 32.1 0.3 58.62% -0.516 -0.5047
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 33 60.61% 34.42 1.254 51.52% -0.778 -0.5588
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 31 77.42% 39.42 4.147 48.39% -0.593 -0.3099
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 12 58.33% 47.42 7.579 58.33% -0.547 0.2239
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 7 71.43% 32.57 0.62 14.29% -1.487 -0.3202
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 18 61.11% 34.44 0.406 16.67% -2.172 -1.0404
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 47 53.19% 31.62 0.078 63.83% -0.208 -0.3303
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 19 84.21% 24.05 -2.789 26.32% -1.15 -0.435
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 26 65.38% 41.31 4.95 61.54% -0.29 0.1481
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 66.67% 52.5 10.008 66.67% -0.165 1.0943
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 12 75.0% 39.33 3.784 33.33% -1.161 -0.0214
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 8.723 33.33% -0.584 1.4767
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 15 80.0% 40.2 2.705 13.33% -2.213 -0.2769

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1349 49.67 31.84 -0.256 63.97% -0.149 0.2094
2 Coastline 496 51.42 32.67 -0.086 57.26% -0.222 -0.0794
3 Coastline 176 57.95 35.67 1.1 64.77% 0.234 0.2001
4 Coastline 92 31.52 35.05 -0.226 79.35% 0.148 0.3065

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 91 29.02 -2.334 51.65% -0.828 1.242
Aid From Lesser Spirits 83 33.3 -0.572 62.65% -0.404 1.5146
All Things Weaken 102 27.9 -2.933 49.02% -1.028 1.1265
Back Against the Wall 58 29.02 -2.208 48.28% -0.878 1.2185
Disintegrating Ecosystem 66 26.5 -3.339 53.03% -0.787 1.4374
Downward Spiral 82 26.24 -3.621 48.78% -0.985 1.0319
Erosion of Will 89 27.91 -2.868 47.19% -0.873 1.3363
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 28 34.14 0.05 78.57% 0.106 0.8101
Memory Fades to Dust 68 28.82 -2.773 52.94% -0.959 1.2563
Power Corrodes the Spirit 88 25.93 -4.06 44.32% -1.068 0.9521
Promising Farmlands 59 24.24 -4.318 44.07% -1.097 1.1151
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 19 32.95 -0.373 63.16% -0.119 0.3161
Thriving Communities 73 29.11 -2.851 50.68% -1.001 1.097
Unnatural Proliferation 85 28.48 -2.641 52.94% -0.832 1.246
Untended Land Crumbles 63 30.75 -1.744 55.56% -0.654 1.4445

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 506 52.38% 32.72 0.088 67.59% 0.285 -0.8042
B 525 50.67% 33.05 0.133 64.38% 0.156 -1.0292
C 499 44.69% 32.76 -0.099 64.33% 0.026 -1.3887
D 332 45.32% 32.27 -0.544 59.34% -0.209 -1.3856
E 408 50.37% 33.59 0.465 70.1% 0.305 -0.9721
F 399 47.62% 34.53 0.741 64.91% 0.126 -1.117
G 299 52.17% 33.39 0.306 59.53% 0.173 -1.0578
H 269 54.28% 32.2 -0.449 53.53% -0.163 -1.4027

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 17.5 -8.084 25.0% -1.202 0.8423
Not Using Events or Tokens 15 53.33% 24.2 -3.346 46.67% -0.509 -0.2901
Skip Initial Invader Actions 37 30.56% 46.32 4.446 67.57% -0.416 -1.1205
Start of Game Growth 98 24.74% 42.76 3.719 83.67% 1.353 0.899
Unlimited Undo 115 55.75% 35.08 0.481 60.0% -0.041 -0.4538
Using Tokens but Not Events 127 46.34% 30.64 -0.685 70.08% 0.121 0.0738

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 277 22.34 2.53%
II 662 30.75 41.54%
III 840 34.26 85.48%
IV 334 37.47 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.159 Win Model: -0.262
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1349 49.67% 31.84 63.97%
2 498 51.41% 32.75 57.43%
3 175 57.71% 35.47 64.57%
4 91 31.87% 35.05 79.12%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 713
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 273
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 333
Lose: Invader deck ran out 4
Lose: Adversary condition 43
Win: Sacrifice victory 8
Lose: Scenario condition 400
Lose: Blight pool ran out 319
Lose: Spirit destroyed 13

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)