Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 94 67.02% 27.86 -0.351 40.43% -0.154 0.4138
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 59 54.24% 34.17 0.0 47.46%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 28 21.43% 32.54 0.0 25.0%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 28 39.29% 38.07 4.549 32.14% -0.202 1.1868
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 13 38.46% 30.38 0.0 7.69%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 12 50.0% 40.5 -0.164 8.33% -1.382 0.8088
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 140 42.86% 30.87 -1.177 55.0% -0.642 -0.3541
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 107 45.79% 37.13 3.269 69.16% 0.11 -0.107
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 116 53.45% 40.84 3.03 56.03% -0.528 -0.3156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 61 68.85% 45.1 0.0 50.82%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 42 71.43% 46.74 15.002 50.0% 0.52 1.0571
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 29 62.07% 39.52 0.0 20.69%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 35 85.71% 39.97 -4.182 20.0% -1.651 -0.0788
The Kingdom of England 0 1 114 48.25% 29.93 1.061 54.39% -0.08 0.3353
The Kingdom of England 1 3 59 64.41% 33.14 0.0 47.46%
The Kingdom of England 2 4 62 51.61% 36.61 1.834 45.16% -0.213 0.8154
The Kingdom of England 3 6 44 61.36% 33.34 1.451 25.0% -0.405 1.2532
The Kingdom of England 4 7 43 76.74% 34.6 5.22 20.93% -0.022 1.5957
The Kingdom of England 5 9 2 50.0% 54.5 0.0 50.0%
The Kingdom of England 6 11 24 50.0% 49.92 12.293 29.17% -0.159 2.2464
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 74 66.22% 29.74 -9.612 44.59% -0.507 0.2957
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 49 79.59% 25.16 -5.623 24.49% -0.971 -0.0983
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 44 18.18% 26.23 0.813 6.82% -0.52 1.7509
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 22 40.91% 33.55 3.697 13.64% -0.588 1.7441
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 13 30.77% 32.77 9.995 7.69% 0.061 2.468
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 23 60.87% 35.0 -0.135 8.7% -1.243 0.6195
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 62 45.16% 35.02 -2.114 4.84% -1.832 0.4824
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 8 75.0% 31.5 -1.03 62.5% -0.083 -0.235
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 1 0.0% 49.0 6.25 100.0% 0.243 1.1293
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 3 0.0% 52.33 15.082 66.67% 0.5 1.2193
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 1 0.0% 32.0 -3.661 0.0% -0.523 0.7692
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 5 80.0% 33.8 -0.137 20.0% -0.584 0.8112
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 2 50.0% 53.5 7.701 50.0% -0.3 1.3399
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 85 52.94% 28.52 0.406 52.94% 0.223 0.3558
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 80 47.5% 32.16 0.105 53.75% -0.147 -0.1863
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 73 64.38% 32.48 -3.926 47.95% -1.003 -0.5242
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 61 77.05% 41.89 6.054 54.1% 0.05 0.3224
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 23 60.87% 42.65 14.345 47.83% 0.408 1.2453
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 18 77.78% 37.22 5.384 27.78% -0.383 0.4906
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 46 67.39% 34.91 0.407 17.39% -0.706 0.5138
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 102 50.0% 32.77 4.734 67.65% 0.394 0.2602
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 51 78.43% 28.86 -4.5 39.22% -0.53 0.2478
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 56 64.29% 39.14 5.804 55.36% 0.271 0.7484
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 29 72.41% 47.93 0.0 55.17%
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 16 81.25% 38.19 0.0 31.25%
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 0.0 33.33%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 33 81.82% 40.7 6.168 9.09% -0.264 1.6458

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 2970 53.41 31.11 58.65% -0.423 0.024 -0.226
1 Thematic 1 100.0 16.0 0.0%
2 Coastline 1058 54.08 32.73 57.84% 0.235 0.3234 -0.361
3 Coastline 355 60.45 34.34 65.92% 0.453 -0.1858 0.167
4 Coastline 168 34.52 33.6 74.4% 0.075 0.0826 0.568
5 Coastline 1 0.0 25.0 0.0%
6 Coastline 6 20.0 38.33 83.33% -0.326 -0.766 -0.156
7 Coastline 1 0.0 22.0 0.0%

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 209 30.34 55.02% 0.182 2.0137 0.08
Aid From Lesser Spirits 158 32.89 58.23% 0.137 1.7911 0.633
All Things Weaken 205 26.87 45.37% -0.174 1.8021 0.427
Back Against the Wall 132 28.51 49.24% -0.497 1.3614 -0.178
Disintegrating Ecosystem 151 27.44 49.67% -0.61 1.3642 0.082
Downward Spiral 202 27.4 49.01% 0.461 2.3629 0.321
Erosion of Will 190 27.93 47.89% 0.418 2.4616 0.279
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 77 34.14 76.62% -0.105 0.4672 0.024
Memory Fades to Dust 188 25.99 47.34% -0.487 1.4925 0.038
Power Corrodes the Spirit 201 25.64 40.8% -0.626 1.2656 -0.464
Promising Farmlands 133 24.74 41.35% 0.038 2.077 -0.594
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 43 33.77 69.77% 0.672
Thriving Communities 186 28.12 50.0% -0.277 1.6873 -0.217
Unnatural Proliferation 190 27.89 51.05% -0.949 0.9573 -0.172
Untended Land Crumbles 163 28.11 49.69% -0.477 1.5575 0.134

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 1208 55.98% 31.87 61.01% 0.041 0.8093 -0.039
B 1129 53.59% 32.03 61.03% -0.12 0.5729 0.363
C 1039 49.86% 32.29 62.27% -0.262 0.3029 -0.092
D 683 49.41% 31.52 56.95% -0.205 0.5635 -0.35
E 873 52.3% 33.28 67.7% 0.485 1.0839 0.65
F 821 49.02% 33.68 62.36% 0.027 0.7363 0.296
G 584 55.84% 32.43 60.1% -0.357 0.3694 0.34
H 531 55.37% 31.96 52.35% 0.139 0.8293 -0.281
East 1 100.0% 16.0 0.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 10 0.0% 29.1 70.0%
Not Using Events or Tokens 40 55.0% 23.7 40.0% -0.337 -0.1223
Skip Initial Invader Actions 77 32.43% 43.31 76.62% 0.373
Start of Game Growth 185 30.77% 40.24 80.54% -0.551 -1.2587 0.373
Unlimited Undo 240 56.22% 35.32 65.0% 0.157 -0.543 0.102
Using Tokens but Not Events 367 47.9% 29.16 64.31% 0.163 0.1175 0.312

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 724 22.6 1.8%
II 1501 31.02 41.31%
III 1687 34.59 85.18%
IV 648 37.83 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.28 Win Model: 0.025
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2983 53.47% 31.11 58.53%
2 1055 54.04% 32.86 58.29%
3 347 60.12% 34.09 65.71%
4 168 34.52% 33.54 73.81%
6 7 16.67% 36.0 71.43%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 13
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1425
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 613
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 646
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 173
Win: Sacrifice victory 21
Lose: Scenario condition 897
Lose: Blight pool ran out 729
Lose: Spirit destroyed 35

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2025-09-16 02:17:41 (Pacific Time)