Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Habsburg Mining Expedition 0 1 14 7.14% 18.0 2.366 35.71% 0.32 0.8063
Habsburg Mining Expedition 1 3 1 0.0% 0.0 -6.783 0.0% -0.102 -0.0823
Habsburg Mining Expedition 2 4 3 33.33% 8.0 0.0 0.0%
Habsburg Mining Expedition 3 5 7 0.0% 10.14 -3.138 0.0% -1.055 -0.928
Habsburg Mining Expedition 4 7 3 33.33% 24.33 -11.164 33.33% -0.292 0.2117
Habsburg Mining Expedition 5 9 1 0.0% 0.0 -10.483 0.0% -0.417 0.5563
Habsburg Mining Expedition 6 10 1 100.0% 0.0 -12.057 0.0% -0.475 1.4419
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 197 45.69% 21.86 9.007 35.03% 0.736 1.2099
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 124 41.13% 25.06 -6.81 36.29% -0.241 0.0501
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 60 20.0% 22.27 -10.618 15.0% -0.799 -0.2566
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 69 26.09% 29.77 -8.097 27.54% -0.734 0.2116
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 17 41.18% 26.41 0.0 5.88%
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 5 9 4 50.0% 12.25 -13.947 0.0% -0.653 0.8148
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 50 58.0% 30.44 0.0 4.0%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 275 40.73% 23.86 -1.736 43.27% -0.65 -0.4274
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 252 38.49% 27.06 -0.512 48.81% -0.31 -0.3431
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 223 50.67% 33.59 2.73 46.19% -0.174 -0.1614
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 188 55.32% 30.52 -7.145 29.79% -1.122 -0.8803
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 87 52.87% 31.84 -7.762 33.33% -0.105 0.0903
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 34 52.94% 33.71 0.0 17.65%
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 58 67.24% 33.43 8.257 17.24% -0.105 1.1357
The Kingdom of England 0 1 230 34.78% 21.53 -1.036 39.57% -0.496 -0.1864
The Kingdom of England 1 3 107 44.86% 24.24 -5.049 34.58% -0.219 0.1005
The Kingdom of England 2 4 108 42.59% 27.15 1.718 36.11% -0.059 0.4205
The Kingdom of England 3 6 74 44.59% 27.3 5.491 22.97% 0.15 1.1894
The Kingdom of England 4 7 88 46.59% 21.26 -7.832 11.36% -1.083 -0.0838
The Kingdom of England 5 9 12 33.33% 14.0 -0.396 8.33% -0.58 0.9307
The Kingdom of England 6 11 67 28.36% 25.64 -2.739 14.93% -0.598 1.245
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 178 46.63% 20.56 -3.875 30.9% -0.975 -0.5982
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 115 59.13% 19.59 -2.338 19.13% -0.788 0.0891
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 77 16.88% 19.82 -9.345 5.19% -0.241 0.9429
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 74 39.19% 23.32 -2.596 9.46% -0.673 0.4675
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 29 31.03% 20.38 -5.413 3.45% -0.577 0.7325
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 40 35.0% 24.38 0.0 7.5%
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 157 33.12% 23.37 0.0 6.37%
The Kingdom of Scotland 0 1 96 29.17% 19.27 1.105 37.5% 0.545 0.8644
The Kingdom of Scotland 1 3 32 31.25% 24.53 9.904 40.63% 0.568 1.0567
The Kingdom of Scotland 2 4 26 30.77% 29.65 15.387 46.15% 0.682 1.0881
The Kingdom of Scotland 3 6 49 46.94% 30.9 -0.435 32.65% -1.072 -1.0437
The Kingdom of Scotland 4 7 27 62.96% 33.63 -0.123 37.04% -0.323 0.1833
The Kingdom of Scotland 5 8 35 31.43% 28.63 -7.983 28.57% -0.213 0.2446
The Kingdom of Scotland 6 10 44 27.27% 29.77 1.154 25.0% -0.847 0.2335
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 207 38.65% 20.14 -3.174 38.16% -0.327 -0.0842
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 176 36.93% 25.46 -0.387 42.05% -0.16 -0.1255
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 155 52.9% 24.46 -3.526 36.77% -0.671 -0.4298
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 114 65.79% 33.35 1.495 42.98% -0.356 -0.1054
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 52 36.54% 27.23 19.423 32.69% 0.456 1.2102
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 49 53.06% 26.43 10.308 22.45% 0.231 1.3295
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 116 43.97% 19.72 -5.876 11.21% -0.249 0.647
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 234 35.47% 22.72 -5.478 47.01% -0.454 -0.214
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 103 58.25% 19.5 -4.046 25.24% -0.362 0.3924
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 106 45.28% 25.56 -3.233 34.91% -0.274 0.0938
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 61 57.38% 34.21 -8.948 40.98% -0.508 0.662
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 45 48.89% 19.22 1.986 13.33% -0.163 0.7934
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 6 66.67% 30.83 0.0 16.67%
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 55 65.45% 31.04 0.0 7.27%

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 5672 44.72 25.33 47.36% 0.561 1.0879 -0.479
1 Thematic 4 100.0 29.5 50.0% 0.071 0.9249
2 Coastline 2047 48.02 26.99 47.19% 0.086 0.1885 -0.499
3 Coastline 700 48.5 28.71 54.86% -0.639 -0.9794 0.506
4 Coastline 274 36.86 28.35 59.49% 0.02 -0.7381 0.821
5 Coastline 31 32.26 16.45 41.94% 0.346 0.4426 -0.644
6 Coastline 44 9.3 15.36 34.09% -0.461 -1.2986 -0.467
7 Coastline 3 0.0 7.33 0.0% -0.111

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 300 28.93 51.33% 0.17 0.4198 0.67
Aid From Lesser Spirits 227 33.22 57.71% 0.674 0.556 1.121
All Things Weaken 323 24.99 41.18% -0.709 -0.3714 0.354
Attenuated Essence 57 26.47 54.39% -0.098 -0.0708 0.108
Back Against the Wall 188 28.24 47.34% 0.066 0.0671 -0.306
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 48 25.85 54.17% -0.604 -0.3868 0.267
Burn Brightest Before the End 44 29.02 56.82% 0.224 0.2052 -0.357
Disintegrating Ecosystem 226 26.82 47.79% 0.554 0.9475 0.975
Downward Spiral 311 26.58 48.23% -0.293 -0.1843 0.803
Erosion of Will 271 27.24 46.13% -0.179 0.1734 0.862
Intensifying Exploitation 43 26.28 34.88% 0.026 0.2719 0.334
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 122 32.8 72.13% 0.752 0.2279 -0.018
Memory Fades to Dust 295 26.23 46.44% -0.124 0.1238 0.925
Power Corrodes the Spirit 290 24.87 38.62% -0.217 0.0051 -0.367
Promising Farmlands 208 25.27 39.9% -0.526 -0.2428 0.327
Shattered Fragments of Power 36 25.89 33.33% -0.221 -0.1442 0.566
Slow Dissolution of Will 48 21.96 37.5% -0.755 -0.3575 0.308
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 69 32.13 63.77% -0.29 -0.9853 1.193
The Border of Life and Death 13 37.69 69.23% 0.645 0.0438 0.691
Thriving Communities 292 26.38 44.86% -1.732 -1.3757 0.586
Thriving Crops 18 21.22 27.78% -0.239 -0.4353 0.302
Unnatural Proliferation 289 27.2 47.4% -0.656 -0.4941 -0.036
Untended Land Crumbles 257 26.86 47.47% 0.104 0.3351 0.396

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 2261 48.69% 26.25 50.55% -0.374 0.6309 -0.696
B 2226 47.19% 26.32 49.6% 0.13 1.0498 -0.31
C 2022 42.32% 26.32 49.85% -0.179 0.5556 -0.464
D 1357 39.75% 24.22 42.45% -0.695 0.2831 -0.903
E 1718 43.98% 26.74 52.04% -0.072 0.7476 -0.057
F 1615 42.56% 27.17 50.65% -0.29 0.5841 -0.039
G 1118 45.88% 26.21 49.11% -0.579 0.2302 -0.285
H 1072 46.08% 26.42 43.75% -0.081 0.7336 -0.72
East 4 100.0% 29.5 50.0% 0.071 0.9733
Northeast 1 100.0% 42.0 100.0%

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 12 0.0% 28.75 66.67%
Not Using Events or Tokens 77 51.32% 18.84 32.47% -0.154 0.2137
Skip Initial Invader Actions 159 23.38% 41.57 69.81% 0.711 0.1258 0.243
Start of Game Growth 290 26.32% 39.2 74.14% 0.233 -0.2806 1.338
Unlimited Undo 569 38.04% 26.37 47.98% -0.968 -1.0773 0.588
Using Tokens but Not Events 842 37.18% 21.38 45.25% 0.088 0.0624 -0.433

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 2702 13.33 0.93%
II 2455 30.1 39.55%
III 2644 34.83 85.44%
IV 976 38.67 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.399 Win Model: 0.46
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 5788 44.22% 24.99 46.58%
2 1959 49.67% 28.11 49.36%
3 688 48.91% 28.84 55.38%
4 266 36.47% 28.48 59.77%
5 30 33.33% 16.17 43.33%
6 46 8.89% 15.17 32.61%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 24
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 2239
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 961
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 970
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 1686
Lose: Invader deck ran out 11
Lose: Adversary condition 251
Win: Sacrifice victory 37
Lose: Scenario condition 1396
Lose: Blight pool ran out 1142
Lose: Spirit destroyed 60

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Data last updated: 2026-08-07 03:46:17 (Pacific Time)