Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 29 75.86% 27.83 -1.415 44.83% -0.703 -0.4227
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 22 50.0% 36.45 2.232 54.55% -0.732 -0.3593
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 13 23.08% 31.31 0.065 23.08% -1.541 -0.6938
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 7 42.86% 30.29 -0.713 14.29% -1.561 -0.3231
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 6 33.33% 27.83 -2.175 0.0% -1.995 -0.4727
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 3 33.33% 30.67 0.102 0.0% -1.074 1.0178
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 62 38.71% 30.52 -0.736 54.84% -0.681 -0.634
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 40 50.0% 36.13 2.32 67.5% 0.031 0.0023
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 64 51.56% 42.41 5.228 60.94% -0.407 -0.4098
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 26 57.69% 44.12 6.088 50.0% -0.75 -0.4653
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 8 24 66.67% 44.83 6.783 45.83% -0.545 -0.1663
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 22 59.09% 38.95 3.557 18.18% -1.596 -0.7624
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 9 55.56% 58.11 12.413 55.56% -0.429 0.8207
The Kingdom of England 0 1 34 38.24% 31.76 -0.237 61.76% -0.513 -0.1805
The Kingdom of England 1 3 23 69.57% 32.61 1.055 52.17% -0.465 0.0174
The Kingdom of England 2 4 18 38.89% 37.5 2.124 44.44% -1.136 -0.1784
The Kingdom of England 3 6 10 70.0% 25.5 -1.725 10.0% -1.412 0.1648
The Kingdom of England 4 7 17 76.47% 29.59 -0.584 11.76% -2.004 -0.4821
The Kingdom of England 6 11 7 42.86% 55.71 11.164 42.86% -0.796 1.4594
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 29 62.07% 25.07 -3.038 34.48% -1.198 -0.6737
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 9 55.56% 33.0 -0.01 44.44% -0.789 0.1021
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 6 33.33% 22.17 -4.876 0.0% -1.911 0.2173
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 3 33.33% 25.33 -2.684 0.0% -1.251 0.9356
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 1 0.0% 28.0 -3.445 0.0% -0.676 1.4696
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 1 0.0% 36.0 1.772 0.0% -0.646 1.1724
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 10 60.0% 38.2 3.041 10.0% -1.922 0.2127
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 28 53.57% 25.32 -3.069 42.86% -1.008 -0.9225
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 24 37.5% 30.75 -0.556 54.17% -0.749 -0.7392
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 28 57.14% 34.29 0.884 50.0% -0.973 -0.7557
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 20 95.0% 35.4 2.104 40.0% -0.855 -0.5705
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 8 75.0% 53.5 10.564 75.0% 0.015 0.7923
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 6 66.67% 33.17 0.921 16.67% -1.419 -0.2539
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 16 62.5% 33.0 -0.211 12.5% -2.156 -1.0237
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 39 53.85% 30.67 -0.371 58.97% -0.349 -0.4659
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 17 82.35% 25.18 -2.252 29.41% -0.974 -0.2853
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 20 80.0% 42.1 5.542 65.0% -0.038 0.3984
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 11 54.55% 49.0 7.589 54.55% -0.709 0.5654
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 7 71.43% 43.86 6.018 42.86% -0.705 0.4529
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 8.138 33.33% -0.663 1.3727
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 15 80.0% 40.2 2.86 13.33% -2.063 -0.1134

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1062 49.81 31.94 -0.269 64.69% -0.147 0.2074
2 Coastline 414 50.73 32.57 -0.161 56.04% -0.268 -0.1334
3 Coastline 159 57.86 35.9 1.053 64.78% 0.188 0.1507
4 Coastline 61 42.62 34.75 0.09 77.05% 0.237 0.3594

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 72 30.44 -1.492 58.33% -0.46 1.6082
Aid From Lesser Spirits 68 32.81 -0.757 61.76% -0.381 1.5358
All Things Weaken 83 28.58 -2.748 48.19% -1.035 1.1251
Back Against the Wall 41 30.93 -1.49 48.78% -0.804 1.2883
Disintegrating Ecosystem 55 26.13 -3.618 50.91% -0.841 1.3803
Downward Spiral 71 25.51 -3.983 46.48% -1.061 0.9537
Erosion of Will 74 28.05 -2.808 50.0% -0.752 1.4597
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 22 34.86 0.596 81.82% 0.366 1.0783
Memory Fades to Dust 57 29.54 -2.507 56.14% -0.867 1.3484
Power Corrodes the Spirit 74 26.76 -3.716 47.3% -0.898 1.1219
Promising Farmlands 46 25.11 -4.116 47.83% -0.954 1.2607
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 15 32.2 -0.975 66.67% -0.055 0.3621
Thriving Communities 54 26.67 -3.96 42.59% -1.28 0.8267
Unnatural Proliferation 68 29.5 -2.228 57.35% -0.615 1.4656
Untended Land Crumbles 55 29.75 -2.301 52.73% -0.783 1.3127

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 411 53.79% 32.85 0.276 67.88% 0.374 -0.6993
B 440 52.5% 32.46 -0.275 61.14% 0.033 -1.131
C 398 46.98% 32.64 -0.185 62.31% -0.045 -1.442
D 265 47.35% 32.86 -0.314 60.75% -0.108 -1.2659
E 325 51.86% 33.6 0.424 70.15% 0.312 -0.9449
F 328 48.17% 34.8 0.961 64.63% 0.2 -1.0257
G 236 52.54% 33.83 0.599 58.9% 0.202 -1.0106
H 208 54.81% 32.18 -0.481 53.85% -0.139 -1.3602

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 17.5 -8.15 25.0% -1.231 0.8075
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 57.14% 24.5 -3.056 50.0% -0.313 -0.0929
Skip Initial Invader Actions 34 33.33% 45.82 3.931 64.71% -0.398 -1.1043
Start of Game Growth 70 31.88% 44.04 4.325 78.57% 1.214 0.7544
Unlimited Undo 73 56.34% 36.01 0.189 63.01% -0.164 -0.5667
Using Tokens but Not Events 104 47.0% 30.82 -0.654 71.15% 0.199 0.153

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 231 22.34 3.03%
II 538 30.71 43.31%
III 682 34.23 85.63%
IV 245 37.48 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.211 Win Model: -0.227
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1062 49.81% 31.94 64.69%
2 416 50.72% 32.67 56.25%
3 158 57.59% 35.68 64.56%
4 60 43.33% 34.75 76.67%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 580
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 231
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 244
Lose: Invader deck ran out 2
Lose: Adversary condition 37
Win: Sacrifice victory 7
Lose: Scenario condition 322
Lose: Blight pool ran out 256
Lose: Spirit destroyed 10

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)