Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 60 76.67% 27.87 -1.069 43.33% -0.687 -0.4095
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 33 54.55% 37.7 3.389 57.58% -0.463 -0.0688
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 19 21.05% 30.95 -0.101 21.05% -1.82 -0.942
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 14 28.57% 33.64 1.377 21.43% -1.65 -0.3984
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 8 25.0% 27.75 -2.209 0.0% -2.333 -0.8115
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 47.5 8.397 25.0% -0.792 1.2572
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 87 42.53% 30.78 -0.273 56.32% -0.629 -0.5887
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 72 50.0% 36.22 2.596 68.06% 0.045 0.0156
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 79 53.16% 42.41 5.569 60.76% -0.369 -0.3638
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 38 63.16% 44.63 6.754 52.63% -0.584 -0.2955
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 30 66.67% 46.67 7.952 50.0% -0.47 -0.1027
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 25 56.0% 39.68 4.207 20.0% -1.547 -0.7177
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 11 63.64% 53.0 10.231 45.45% -0.756 0.4851
The Kingdom of England 0 1 81 46.91% 30.59 -0.255 58.02% -0.422 -0.0898
The Kingdom of England 1 3 45 68.89% 33.53 1.606 51.11% -0.556 -0.0518
The Kingdom of England 2 4 33 45.45% 38.06 2.845 48.48% -1.04 -0.0718
The Kingdom of England 3 6 25 64.0% 31.88 1.044 24.0% -1.513 0.0652
The Kingdom of England 4 7 31 80.65% 34.32 2.303 22.58% -1.818 -0.3197
The Kingdom of England 6 11 13 61.54% 48.77 8.656 30.77% -1.138 1.1173
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 43 69.77% 25.67 -2.33 37.21% -1.057 -0.5427
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 25 72.0% 26.28 -2.137 28.0% -1.32 -0.4237
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 17 17.65% 23.18 -4.376 0.0% -2.816 -0.6793
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 6 33.33% 25.67 -2.992 0.0% -1.917 0.2686
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 4 50.0% 27.75 -1.233 0.0% -1.349 0.7976
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 7 57.14% 31.57 0.136 0.0% -2.047 -0.2271
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 18 33.33% 35.83 1.607 5.56% -2.65 -0.5436
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 48 56.25% 27.88 -1.559 54.17% -0.582 -0.4971
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 45 44.44% 31.62 0.312 55.56% -0.54 -0.5195
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 39 61.54% 35.51 2.054 56.41% -0.522 -0.2903
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 37 75.68% 39.7 4.603 48.65% -0.512 -0.2256
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 13 61.54% 48.46 8.425 61.54% -0.384 0.393
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 8 75.0% 30.88 0.368 12.5% -1.515 -0.3581
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 21 66.67% 32.57 -0.406 14.29% -2.388 -1.2562
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 70 50.0% 31.54 0.157 64.29% -0.229 -0.3354
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 32 78.13% 27.38 -1.412 34.38% -1.169 -0.4256
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 33 66.67% 40.88 4.956 60.61% -0.308 0.1234
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 18 66.67% 52.5 10.186 66.67% -0.159 1.0897
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 39.47 4.212 33.33% -1.182 -0.0548
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 9.055 33.33% -0.566 1.4525
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 21 85.71% 37.86 2.479 9.52% -2.423 -0.5181

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 1818 51.1 31.48 -0.212 62.27% -0.204 0.1289
2 Coastline 681 53.61 32.23 -0.083 57.56% -0.21 -0.0556
3 Coastline 214 60.28 35.04 0.979 65.42% 0.258 0.2198
4 Coastline 111 31.53 34.79 -0.125 79.28% 0.169 0.2946

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 121 29.83 -1.821 53.72% -0.722 1.3516
Aid From Lesser Spirits 102 32.28 -0.838 59.8% -0.567 1.3521
All Things Weaken 125 27.46 -3.029 47.2% -1.084 1.0745
Back Against the Wall 80 28.34 -2.301 50.0% -0.859 1.235
Disintegrating Ecosystem 93 26.48 -3.24 52.69% -0.766 1.4588
Downward Spiral 115 26.46 -3.326 48.7% -0.982 1.0392
Erosion of Will 116 27.66 -2.921 48.28% -0.933 1.2759
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 42 33.05 -0.33 76.19% -0.068 0.6247
Memory Fades to Dust 109 27.71 -2.929 51.38% -0.975 1.2432
Power Corrodes the Spirit 123 25.77 -4.001 44.72% -1.179 0.8424
Promising Farmlands 81 24.19 -4.511 43.21% -1.233 0.9817
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 26 32.0 -0.611 69.23% -0.015 0.3959
Thriving Communities 114 27.8 -3.16 48.25% -1.058 1.0351
Unnatural Proliferation 122 27.48 -2.964 51.64% -0.963 1.1259
Untended Land Crumbles 87 29.39 -2.145 50.57% -0.784 1.3219

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 715 55.12% 31.72 -0.189 65.17% 0.209 -0.9027
B 700 51.29% 32.58 0.118 63.29% 0.16 -1.0478
C 665 46.17% 32.58 -0.02 64.51% 0.068 -1.3708
D 428 47.07% 31.68 -0.573 57.01% -0.226 -1.4283
E 541 52.6% 33.28 0.623 68.76% 0.366 -0.9459
F 512 48.44% 34.36 0.876 65.63% 0.226 -1.0401
G 368 56.79% 32.63 0.116 58.97% 0.153 -1.1037
H 337 54.3% 31.92 -0.388 53.71% -0.13 -1.3957

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 4 0.0% 17.5 -7.837 25.0% -1.237 0.8175
Not Using Events or Tokens 27 59.26% 22.48 -4.024 37.04% -0.905 -0.6874
Skip Initial Invader Actions 50 30.61% 44.06 3.72 68.0% -0.323 -1.0165
Start of Game Growth 127 26.19% 41.39 3.315 81.1% 1.114 0.6508
Unlimited Undo 150 56.76% 35.37 0.88 64.0% 0.189 -0.2314
Using Tokens but Not Events 204 49.0% 30.26 -0.698 68.63% 0.094 0.0417

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 384 22.34 1.82%
II 914 30.81 40.7%
III 1095 34.31 86.03%
IV 431 37.5 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.15 Win Model: -0.319
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 1818 51.1% 31.48 62.27%
2 685 53.73% 32.3 57.81%
3 211 59.72% 34.85 64.93%
4 110 31.82% 34.79 79.09%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 936
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 369
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 430
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 74
Win: Sacrifice victory 10
Lose: Scenario condition 534
Lose: Blight pool ran out 435
Lose: Spirit destroyed 24

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)