Results with Adversaries

Adversary Level Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 0 2 73 72.6% 27.81 -1.143 42.47% -0.762 -0.473
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 1 3 40 52.5% 37.35 3.289 57.5% -0.442 -0.0276
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 2 5 21 19.05% 32.05 0.476 23.81% -1.742 -0.8591
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 3 6 15 26.67% 33.2 1.333 20.0% -1.663 -0.4212
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 4 8 12 41.67% 30.5 -0.168 8.33% -2.19 -0.6934
The Habsburg Monarchy (Livestock Colony) 6 10 4 25.0% 47.5 8.568 25.0% -0.753 1.2898
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 0 1 103 43.69% 30.48 -0.4 55.34% -0.712 -0.6713
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 1 2 81 48.15% 36.33 2.681 67.9% 0.01 -0.0081
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 2 4 84 54.76% 42.31 5.668 60.71% -0.314 -0.3008
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 3 6 43 65.12% 44.95 7.098 53.49% -0.512 -0.2286
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 4 7 33 69.7% 47.18 8.369 51.52% -0.355 0.0047
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 5 9 26 57.69% 40.85 4.8 23.08% -1.514 -0.6891
The Kingdom of Brandenburg-Prussia 6 10 13 69.23% 53.46 10.592 46.15% -0.826 0.4131
The Kingdom of England 0 1 91 46.15% 30.32 -0.351 57.14% -0.467 -0.1375
The Kingdom of England 1 3 50 70.0% 32.78 1.287 48.0% -0.675 -0.1578
The Kingdom of England 2 4 39 48.72% 36.1 2.077 43.59% -1.174 -0.2008
The Kingdom of England 3 6 28 60.71% 31.61 0.96 21.43% -1.613 -0.0334
The Kingdom of England 4 7 33 78.79% 34.03 2.006 21.21% -1.991 -0.4964
The Kingdom of England 5 9 1 100.0% 74.0 20.892 100.0% 0.211 2.2811
The Kingdom of England 6 11 14 57.14% 47.57 8.235 28.57% -1.187 1.057
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 0 2 54 72.22% 27.24 -1.351 40.74% -0.873 -0.361
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 1 3 30 76.67% 27.63 -1.245 33.33% -1.099 -0.1968
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 2 5 21 14.29% 23.1 -4.33 0.0% -3.001 -0.8598
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 3 7 8 25.0% 26.25 -2.815 0.0% -2.166 0.0328
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 4 8 5 60.0% 27.4 -1.342 0.0% -1.508 0.6526
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 5 9 10 60.0% 36.1 2.287 10.0% -2.065 -0.2478
The Kingdom of France (Plantation Colony) 6 10 21 42.86% 37.43 2.546 9.52% -2.529 -0.438
The Kingdom of Sweden 0 1 54 53.7% 27.94 -1.497 53.7% -0.61 -0.5215
The Kingdom of Sweden 1 2 52 42.31% 32.35 0.734 57.69% -0.47 -0.4347
The Kingdom of Sweden 2 3 45 57.78% 34.98 1.829 55.56% -0.604 -0.3666
The Kingdom of Sweden 3 5 41 78.05% 39.73 4.718 48.78% -0.447 -0.1564
The Kingdom of Sweden 4 6 15 60.0% 45.27 6.902 53.33% -0.661 0.1202
The Kingdom of Sweden 5 7 9 77.78% 30.11 -0.23 11.11% -1.753 -0.5848
The Kingdom of Sweden 6 8 23 65.22% 32.26 -0.315 13.04% -2.472 -1.3495
The Tsardom of Russia 0 1 76 48.68% 32.38 0.666 67.11% -0.072 -0.1602
The Tsardom of Russia 1 3 36 77.78% 26.89 -1.535 33.33% -1.183 -0.4044
The Tsardom of Russia 2 4 39 69.23% 40.1 4.705 58.97% -0.335 0.0768
The Tsardom of Russia 3 6 20 70.0% 51.65 10.002 65.0% -0.128 1.1165
The Tsardom of Russia 4 7 15 80.0% 39.47 4.34 33.33% -1.153 -0.0451
The Tsardom of Russia 5 9 3 100.0% 51.0 9.403 33.33% -0.529 1.4552
The Tsardom of Russia 6 11 23 86.96% 40.43 4.021 13.04% -2.298 -0.4263

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 2063 51.43 31.25 -0.311 61.22% 0.042 0.1281
1 Thematic 1 100.0 16.0 -3.559 0.0% -0.282 -0.0048
2 Coastline 777 53.81 32.64 0.19 58.56% 0.012 -0.0128
3 Coastline 248 59.68 34.47 0.821 65.32% 0.278 0.1272
4 Coastline 134 32.09 33.45 -0.513 76.12% -0.034 0.0854

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 141 29.9 -1.753 52.48% -0.767 1.3025
Aid From Lesser Spirits 110 31.9 -0.934 58.18% -0.613 1.3002
All Things Weaken 138 27.54 -2.922 48.55% -1.038 1.1215
Back Against the Wall 96 28.7 -2.095 51.04% -0.845 1.2416
Disintegrating Ecosystem 105 25.99 -3.499 49.52% -0.888 1.3343
Downward Spiral 125 26.81 -3.113 50.4% -0.907 1.1148
Erosion of Will 139 27.96 -2.702 48.2% -0.909 1.2987
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 52 33.9 0.166 76.92% 0.092 0.7703
Memory Fades to Dust 121 27.17 -3.149 48.76% -1.06 1.1554
Power Corrodes the Spirit 149 25.54 -3.964 42.28% -1.258 0.7634
Promising Farmlands 88 24.05 -4.537 43.18% -1.257 0.9507
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 30 32.73 -0.319 70.0% 0.002 0.4131
Thriving Communities 130 27.75 -3.028 48.46% -0.99 1.0976
Unnatural Proliferation 137 27.6 -2.789 51.82% -0.939 1.1414
Untended Land Crumbles 107 28.64 -2.609 49.53% -0.908 1.1944

Results Using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 804 54.74% 31.71 -0.108 65.05% 0.221 -0.4673
B 824 51.46% 32.11 -0.035 62.14% 0.098 -0.6853
C 754 47.34% 32.56 0.063 64.06% 0.083 -0.93
D 488 47.23% 31.56 -0.547 57.58% -0.211 -0.9883
E 617 52.28% 33.38 0.717 68.56% 0.377 -0.5176
F 590 47.8% 34.03 0.8 64.58% 0.195 -0.6459
G 433 56.58% 32.29 -0.002 59.35% 0.144 -0.6876
H 387 54.78% 31.51 -0.506 53.49% -0.145 -0.9842
East 1 100.0% 16.0 -3.559 0.0% -0.282 -0.8578

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flipped Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 6 0.0% 23.5 -4.798 50.0% -0.909 1.1437
Not Using Events or Tokens 31 54.84% 22.94 -3.959 38.71% -0.966 -0.7514
Skip Initial Invader Actions 58 31.58% 43.12 3.333 70.69% -0.317 -1.0034
Start of Game Growth 144 27.97% 40.77 3.249 81.25% 1.152 0.6828
Unlimited Undo 169 53.94% 35.44 1.033 65.68% 0.232 -0.1906
Using Tokens but Not Events 254 49.6% 29.81 -0.797 67.32% 0.047 -0.0041

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 445 22.37 1.57%
II 1045 30.88 40.67%
III 1231 34.39 85.13%
IV 502 37.55 100.0%

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.111 Win Model: -0.222
Num. Completed Blight Flipped Average Score Win Rate
1 2066 51.45% 31.24 61.13%
2 782 53.85% 32.75 58.95%
3 242 59.5% 34.2 64.88%
4 133 32.33% 33.44 75.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 1039
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 420
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 501
Lose: Invader deck ran out 5
Lose: Adversary condition 87
Win: Sacrifice victory 15
Lose: Scenario condition 621
Lose: Blight pool ran out 502
Lose: Spirit destroyed 26

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)