Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 15 46.67% 22.53 60.0% 0.185 -0.0711 -0.086
Blitz 0 17 17.65% 20.47 52.94% -0.299 -0.1022 0.186
Dahan Insurrection 4 101 25.74% 33.12 45.54% -0.318 -0.7604 0.196
Despicable Theft 2 16 50.0% 25.63 31.25% -0.799 0.0128 -0.08
Elemental Invocation 1 12 41.67% 13.08 16.67% -1.473 -0.7697 -0.234
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 126 24.6% 35.2 57.94% 0.117 -0.528 0.446
Powers Long Forgotten 1 21 28.57% 15.57 38.1% -0.993 -0.3575 -0.088
Rituals of Terror 3 13 53.85% 19.23 38.46% -0.229 -0.1277 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 33.33% 7.67 0.0% -1.201 -0.1921 0.0
Second Wave 0 67 46.03% 22.54 55.22% -0.445 -0.3785 -0.26
The Great River 3 22 18.18% 12.27 22.73% -1.046 0.1714 -0.597
Varied Terrains 2 19 31.58% 16.26 42.11% -0.574 0.0491 -1.198
Ward the Shores 2 15 46.67% 16.47 26.67% -0.753 0.3311 0.478

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1611 43.77% 26.4 57.05% -0.04 0.0144 -0.326
1 Thematic 115 46.96% 19.35 22.61% -0.625 -0.1471 -1.482
2 Archipelago 2 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.197 -0.0928 -0.475
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 482 40.08% 28.05 59.75% 0.007 0.0889 0.07
2 Coastline 77 36.36% 31.14 79.22% 0.486 0.3316 0.164
2 Fragment 22 31.82% 38.5 72.73% 0.953 0.7035 1.696
2 Heart 36 63.89% 41.67 58.33% 0.286 -0.0007 0.87
2 Opposite Shores 85 35.29% 27.81 63.53% -0.143 -0.1196 0.031
2 Thematic 41 41.46% 31.56 48.78% 0.222 0.6257 0.79
2 Top to Top 14 35.71% 26.43 42.86% -0.225 -0.391 -0.589
3 Archipelago 2 100.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.538 -1.0112 0.0
3 Coastline 4 25.0% 28.75 50.0% -0.344 -0.8577 0.08
3 Other 12 25.0% 25.58 66.67% 0.064 0.6051 0.0
3 Round (Default) 361 43.61% 30.74 64.27% 0.386 0.2711 -0.05
3 Sunrise 2 0.0% 119.0 100.0% 0.397 0.6773 0.172
3 Thematic 9 55.56% 14.78 44.44% -0.291 -0.211 -0.318
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.251 -0.0197 0.0
4 Leaf 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0% -0.105 -0.4483 0.0
4 Other 13 38.46% 16.62 53.85% -0.111 -1.1953 0.0
4 Thematic 13 38.46% 27.08 46.15% -0.492 -0.7546 0.0
4 Trapezoid (Default) 89 41.57% 27.48 62.92% 0.178 0.0951 -0.386
5 Coastline 2 0.0% 12.5 50.0% 0.178 -0.4742 0.0
5 Other 22 36.36% 23.68 59.09% 0.684 0.3987 -0.013
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.394 -0.4879 -0.086
6 Archipelago 2 50.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.655 0.8063 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.163 -0.9634 0.0
6 Other 6 16.67% 20.83 66.67% -0.092 -0.3249 0.349
6 Star 20 20.0% 18.15 65.0% 0.154 0.1411 -0.428
6 Thematic 77 13.16% 22.77 31.17% -0.678 -0.2573 -0.416
6 Two Centers (Default) 33 21.21% 15.58 48.48% -0.329 -0.2245 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.67 -1.283 0.322

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 69 31.7 47.83% -0.073 0.1689 0.242
Aid From Lesser Spirits 61 40.52 75.41% 0.866 0.789 1.318
All Things Weaken 76 31.41 50.0% 0.18 0.5729 0.223
Attenuated Essence 68 28.6 48.53% 0.214 0.3205 0.202
Back Against the Wall 57 33.28 52.63% -0.01 0.0476 0.747
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 66 29.41 46.97% -0.12 0.0817 0.179
Burn Brightest Before the End 56 35.98 55.36% 0.065 0.2756 0.488
Disintegrating Ecosystem 61 32.21 55.74% -0.028 0.3956 1.144
Downward Spiral 67 29.64 52.24% -0.047 0.189 0.735
Erosion of Will 53 27.77 45.28% -0.514 -0.2044 -0.114
Intensifying Exploitation 73 28.41 45.21% -0.374 -0.0866 0.026
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 22 46.23 90.91% 1.275 0.7815 1.343
Memory Fades to Dust 53 32.92 50.94% -0.045 0.2918 0.018
Power Corrodes the Spirit 47 32.0 55.32% -0.221 -0.0003 0.957
Promising Farmlands 71 24.72 30.99% -0.718 -0.2646 -0.355
Shattered Fragments of Power 55 36.47 60.0% 0.266 0.3169 0.329
Slow Dissolution of Will 55 32.65 52.73% 0.178 0.5768 0.615
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 23 37.09 73.91% 0.429 -0.2814 0.558
The Border of Life and Death 20 24.5 55.0% 0.12 -0.215 0.075
Thriving Communities 71 28.54 53.52% -0.037 0.3262 0.181
Thriving Crops 38 27.21 34.21% -0.133 -0.3304 0.226
Unnatural Proliferation 81 29.93 54.32% -0.379 -0.1639 0.723
Untended Land Crumbles 61 29.49 49.18% -0.138 0.1437 0.122

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 695 39.31% 27.64 64.17% 0.241 0.9812 0.295
B 740 37.36% 28.66 62.84% 0.351 1.077 0.361
C 821 38.25% 27.08 58.59% 0.111 0.6934 0.228
D 603 39.0% 26.52 58.04% 0.384 1.0958 0.201
E 627 43.86% 26.59 56.46% 0.303 0.8687 -0.098
F 538 44.13% 29.08 63.57% 0.303 0.9732 0.636
G 573 42.38% 27.03 58.29% 0.202 0.8539 -0.32
H 515 39.84% 26.82 61.17% 0.401 0.9711 0.183
East 180 30.73% 25.79 38.33% 0.309 0.8477 -0.396
Northeast 121 23.33% 23.5 35.54% -0.131 0.5035 -0.178
Northwest 152 28.48% 19.75 26.32% -0.558 0.2514 -1.168
Southeast 108 22.43% 23.82 34.26% -0.599 0.1072 0.003
Southwest 99 19.39% 20.45 30.3% -1.232 -0.242 -0.37
West 191 32.63% 20.18 28.27% -0.047 0.8562 0.597

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 15 0.0% 14.2 53.33% -0.804 -0.0278 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 14 16.67% 21.0 35.71% -0.284 0.095 -0.207
Skip Initial Invader Actions 38 12.9% 43.05 78.95% 1.097 0.4798 0.516
Start of Game Growth 77 18.84% 42.32 72.73% 0.648 0.2997 1.226
Unlimited Undo 279 36.86% 26.07 55.2% -0.219 -0.2255 0.644
Using Tokens but Not Events 248 18.72% 20.59 61.29% -0.013 -0.023 -0.856

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 100 100.0% 19.24 100.0% -0.405 -0.5526 0.665
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 24 100.0% 21.04 100.0% -0.378 -0.2474 -0.063
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 41 100.0% 16.46 100.0% -0.472 -0.6163 -0.096
Downpour Drenches the World 76 100.0% 24.33 100.0% 0.524 0.703 -0.237
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 463 100.0% 31.85 100.0% 0.626 -0.1391 0.755
Eyes Watch From the Trees 90 100.0% 29.54 100.0% 0.329 -0.2602 0.831
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 56 100.0% 28.05 100.0% 0.446 -0.0512 -0.678
Finder of Paths Unseen 49 100.0% 22.24 100.0% 0.023 0.6867 0.066
Fractured Days Split the Sky 40 100.0% 22.85 100.0% 0.045 0.6312 0.18
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 67 100.0% 27.61 100.0% -0.234 -0.3283 -0.438
Heart of the Wildfire 36 100.0% 24.72 100.0% 0.113 0.3539 -0.5
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 133 100.0% 27.38 100.0% 0.44 -0.0018 -0.338
Lightning's Swift Strike 21 423.81% 20.71 323.81% 0.092 0.2751 -0.325
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 52 34.62% 28.48 55.77% -0.073 -0.5598 0.646
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 14 21.43% 23.14 71.43% 0.357 0.1896 0.543
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 34 32.35% 28.76 41.18% -0.178 -0.2909 0.78
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 85 100.0% 30.65 100.0% 0.039 -0.0929 0.377
Many Minds Move as One 50 100.0% 22.84 100.0% 0.277 0.0555 0.022
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 68 100.0% 21.68 100.0% -0.195 -0.237 -0.185
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 36 100.0% 21.97 100.0% 0.235 0.0572 0.132
River Surges in Sunlight 35 444.44% 22.77 345.71% 0.009 0.0793 -0.64
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 37 22.22% 22.68 51.35% 0.482 0.7919 0.0
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 146 34.25% 27.86 53.42% -0.049 -0.162 -0.019
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 52 100.0% 26.19 100.0% 0.373 0.1354 0.593
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 8 850.0% 29.63 537.5% -0.061 0.4685 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 35 31.43% 29.03 71.43% 0.557 0.4816 0.324
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 26 30.77% 21.92 53.85% -0.552 -0.658 -0.496
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 15 26.67% 18.33 33.33% -0.631 -0.6498 -0.443
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 9 22.22% 24.0 66.67% 0.317 0.4942 -0.318
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 30 741.94% 38.27 443.33% -0.086 -0.2758 0.895
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 301 33.67% 30.82 65.78% 0.203 -0.1784 0.537
Shifting Memory of Ages 41 100.0% 22.0 100.0% 0.157 0.5103 0.823
Shroud of Silent Mist 53 100.0% 18.77 100.0% -0.995 -0.7453 -0.036
Starlight Seeks its Form 77 100.0% 26.62 100.0% 0.416 0.1551 0.398
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 65 100.0% 20.23 100.0% -1.002 -1.4788 -1.315
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 45 100.0% 19.16 100.0% -0.615 -0.552 -0.594
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 33 100.0% 20.21 100.0% 0.113 0.2066 -0.922
Vital Strength of the Earth 24 234.62% 15.42 216.67% -0.309 0.2152 -0.72
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 42 30.0% 26.64 50.0% -0.045 0.2154 -0.622
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 13 46.15% 21.62 46.15% -0.319 0.4575 0.0
Volcano Looming High 52 100.0% 28.48 100.0% 0.272 0.2293 0.412

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory 92.85%
Sudden Ambush 88.9%
Voice of Thunder 95.1%
Words of Warning 98.55%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 1039 20.4 12.03%
II 1273 31.01 70.86%
III 687 34.76 90.25%
IV 159 38.07 98.74%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 125
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 608
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 860
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 155
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 829
Lose: Invader deck ran out 8
Lose: Adversary condition 192
Win: Sacrifice victory 6
Lose: Scenario condition 21
Win: Scenario condition 50
Lose: Blight pool ran out 274
Lose: Spirit destroyed 30

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.051 Win Model: -0.173

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.111 Win Model: -0.113
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1733 43.87% 25.91 54.59%
2 760 40.29% 29.28 61.45%
3 382 43.04% 31.07 64.92%
4 122 40.16% 25.83 59.02%
5 21 33.33% 21.38 57.14%
6 140 16.55% 20.21 42.14%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-12-12 04:02:30 (Pacific Time)