Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 13 53.85% 22.23 53.85% -0.115 -0.1935 -0.202
Blitz 0 14 21.43% 23.14 57.14% -0.545 -0.3985 0.182
Dahan Insurrection 4 70 30.0% 28.93 38.57% -0.379 -0.5857 -0.049
Despicable Theft 2 5 60.0% 27.6 20.0% -0.872 -0.1897 -0.423
Elemental Invocation 1 9 33.33% 13.22 22.22% -0.864 -0.1326 -0.415
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 92 22.83% 33.22 56.52% -0.115 -0.7212 0.112
Powers Long Forgotten 1 13 23.08% 20.85 46.15% -0.449 0.0395 -0.125
Rituals of Terror 3 9 55.56% 13.11 22.22% -1.278 -1.1731 0.0
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 3 33.33% 7.67 0.0% -1.404 -0.4123 0.0
Second Wave 0 44 48.78% 22.0 56.82% -0.437 -0.3747 -0.237
The Great River 3 22 18.18% 12.27 22.73% -1.313 0.0349 -0.671
Varied Terrains 2 16 25.0% 16.38 43.75% -0.273 0.2894 -1.248
Ward the Shores 2 11 45.45% 18.55 27.27% -0.946 0.263 0.456

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 1332 43.19% 26.47 57.96% -0.123 0.0868 -0.473
1 Thematic 59 47.46% 25.85 33.9% -0.49 0.1086 -0.972
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 381 41.53% 28.9 61.42% -0.016 0.1441 0.021
2 Coastline 72 38.89% 32.18 80.56% 0.615 0.6761 0.117
2 Fragment 20 25.0% 37.65 75.0% 0.742 0.6781 1.625
2 Heart 32 59.38% 40.94 59.38% 0.296 0.0578 0.741
2 Opposite Shores 60 33.33% 27.97 66.67% -0.053 0.0805 -0.149
2 Thematic 26 38.46% 33.92 57.69% 0.302 0.9384 0.302
2 Top to Top 12 41.67% 25.0 41.67% -0.291 -0.2508 -0.657
3 Archipelago 2 100.0% 38.0 100.0% 0.344 -0.7428 0.0
3 Coastline 2 50.0% 32.0 50.0% 0.122 -0.3764 0.063
3 Other 10 30.0% 28.3 70.0% 0.324 0.4333 0.0
3 Round (Default) 301 43.67% 30.22 63.79% 0.14 0.099 -0.012
3 Thematic 9 55.56% 14.78 44.44% 0.028 0.0638 -0.216
4 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.241 -0.1188 0.0
4 Leaf 2 50.0% 20.0 50.0% -0.29 -0.6656 0.0
4 Other 12 33.33% 15.17 50.0% -0.928 -1.778 0.0
4 Thematic 12 41.67% 27.58 41.67% -0.283 -0.2998 0.0
4 Trapezoid (Default) 73 39.73% 28.12 65.75% 0.285 0.0988 -0.279
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.284 -0.3266 0.0
5 Other 17 41.18% 25.71 64.71% 0.773 0.2647 0.071
5 Thematic 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.231 -0.5609 -0.202
6 Archipelago 2 50.0% 37.5 100.0% 0.884 0.5787 0.0
6 Coastline 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% -0.146 -0.7896 0.0
6 Other 5 20.0% 20.6 60.0% 0.225 -0.1694 0.384
6 Star 16 12.5% 18.25 62.5% -0.001 0.4743 -0.427
6 Thematic 64 11.11% 19.2 26.56% -0.771 -0.3726 -0.315
6 Two Centers (Default) 24 20.83% 12.25 41.67% -0.886 -0.842 0.0
7 Other 1 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.003 -0.7703 0.357

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 54 32.04 50.0% 0.034 0.3052 0.369
Aid From Lesser Spirits 55 41.53 78.18% 1.134 1.1725 1.315
All Things Weaken 63 31.78 49.21% 0.066 0.5266 0.081
Attenuated Essence 50 29.86 52.0% 0.07 0.2753 -0.106
Back Against the Wall 47 34.32 57.45% 0.073 0.2354 0.637
Blight Corrodes the Spirit 47 30.32 48.94% -0.21 0.2042 0.175
Burn Brightest Before the End 48 35.4 56.25% 0.137 0.4418 0.488
Disintegrating Ecosystem 48 31.52 56.25% 0.017 0.5436 1.108
Downward Spiral 45 28.56 48.89% -0.238 0.115 0.773
Erosion of Will 48 26.92 43.75% -0.514 -0.1053 -0.306
Intensifying Exploitation 62 29.08 46.77% -0.221 0.1658 -0.181
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 20 45.75 90.0% 1.505 0.9794 1.427
Memory Fades to Dust 41 31.98 46.34% -0.305 0.1766 -0.113
Power Corrodes the Spirit 37 36.43 64.86% 0.472 0.7762 1.264
Promising Farmlands 53 24.64 30.19% -0.82 -0.2339 -0.37
Shattered Fragments of Power 43 38.49 65.12% 0.5 0.6789 0.043
Slow Dissolution of Will 49 33.45 55.1% -0.089 0.4446 0.647
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 18 42.56 83.33% 1.045 0.3675 0.764
The Border of Life and Death 17 25.59 52.94% 0.033 -0.097 0.114
Thriving Communities 56 26.66 53.57% -0.046 0.447 -0.022
Thriving Crops 34 27.76 35.29% -0.528 -0.4401 0.304
Unnatural Proliferation 65 30.62 55.38% -0.004 0.2929 0.845
Untended Land Crumbles 50 30.78 52.0% 0.095 0.4534 0.136

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 572 38.66% 27.56 65.56% 0.217 1.0567 0.233
B 604 36.44% 28.75 64.4% 0.357 1.1358 0.384
C 669 39.1% 27.06 59.04% 0.118 0.7725 0.078
D 487 39.43% 26.73 57.91% 0.09 0.8893 0.129
E 504 44.25% 26.43 56.35% 0.091 0.7197 0.012
F 441 43.99% 29.36 65.31% 0.397 1.1164 0.637
G 469 43.04% 27.13 58.0% -0.032 0.7102 -0.351
H 423 40.43% 26.67 61.47% 0.254 0.9023 0.257
East 144 28.67% 23.58 36.11% 0.278 0.8816 -0.715
Northeast 102 20.79% 20.72 32.35% -0.452 0.4292 -0.582
Northwest 96 22.11% 21.4 32.29% -0.346 0.3267 -0.527
Southeast 86 21.18% 19.93 29.07% -0.344 0.2927 0.25
Southwest 77 17.11% 18.94 28.57% -0.073 1.0916 -0.217
West 125 29.03% 22.51 34.4% -0.508 0.456 0.388

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 8 0.0% 15.88 50.0% -1.142 -0.2587 0.0
Not Using Events or Tokens 11 10.0% 22.45 27.27% -0.767 -0.4348 0.086
Skip Initial Invader Actions 28 13.64% 36.79 78.57% 0.738 0.2029 0.241
Start of Game Growth 59 21.15% 37.97 71.19% 0.616 0.2852 0.67
Unlimited Undo 220 38.14% 26.61 55.91% -0.204 -0.2255 0.479
Using Tokens but Not Events 202 14.36% 20.46 62.87% -0.014 -0.0675 -0.635

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 73 100.0% 17.62 100.0% -0.474 -0.6328 0.521
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 17 100.0% 21.41 100.0% -0.182 -0.0607 -0.511
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 31 100.0% 13.1 100.0% -0.263 -0.4313 -0.107
Downpour Drenches the World 65 100.0% 24.2 100.0% 0.133 0.3124 -0.267
Ember-Eyed Behemoth 417 100.0% 31.7 100.0% 0.62 -0.1009 0.67
Eyes Watch From the Trees 71 100.0% 28.58 100.0% 0.572 -0.0164 0.796
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 42 100.0% 28.1 100.0% 0.163 -0.3085 -0.05
Finder of Paths Unseen 35 100.0% 23.86 100.0% 0.139 0.8329 0.704
Fractured Days Split the Sky 31 100.0% 21.87 100.0% 0.044 0.7284 0.245
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 58 100.0% 28.07 100.0% -0.26 -0.3606 -0.346
Heart of the Wildfire 31 100.0% 24.35 100.0% -0.056 0.1879 -0.751
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 111 100.0% 25.5 100.0% 0.459 0.0094 -0.393
Lightning's Swift Strike 14 485.71% 20.71 407.14% -0.121 0.0822 -0.359
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 44 40.91% 29.16 56.82% 0.396 -0.3011 0.647
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 11 27.27% 17.73 63.64% -0.037 -0.2768 0.0
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 27 25.93% 18.74 25.93% -0.487 -0.6465 0.368
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 66 100.0% 29.29 100.0% 0.25 0.1047 0.625
Many Minds Move as One 39 100.0% 21.87 100.0% -0.364 -0.5851 0.023
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 53 100.0% 20.74 100.0% -0.373 -0.3817 -0.391
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 31 100.0% 22.97 100.0% 0.395 0.2528 0.315
River Surges in Sunlight 26 455.56% 19.54 369.23% -0.294 -0.2909 -0.617
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 31 20.0% 19.29 41.94% 0.324 0.5937 0.0
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 111 35.14% 27.01 53.15% -0.113 -0.2421 -0.426
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 42 100.0% 24.55 100.0% 0.356 0.1427 0.482
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 7 700.0% 33.86 428.57% 0.617 1.0524 0.0
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 25 36.0% 25.04 60.0% -0.152 -0.1527 0.218
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 19 21.05% 24.74 68.42% 0.171 0.1628 -0.013
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 8 37.5% 15.5 37.5% -0.055 -0.1271 -0.211
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 8 25.0% 27.0 75.0% 0.648 0.7066 -0.36
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 24 812.0% 35.96 512.5% 0.366 0.2381 1.001
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves — Unconstrained 275 35.04% 29.97 64.0% 0.173 -0.1897 0.317
Shifting Memory of Ages 28 100.0% 17.86 100.0% -0.074 0.3335 0.206
Shroud of Silent Mist 41 100.0% 19.1 100.0% -0.619 -0.3038 0.321
Starlight Seeks its Form 62 100.0% 25.74 100.0% 0.175 -0.0983 -0.041
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 52 100.0% 19.19 100.0% -0.86 -1.3554 -1.199
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 33 100.0% 18.52 100.0% -0.678 -0.6473 -0.65
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 20 100.0% 19.35 100.0% 0.171 0.2326 0.232
Vital Strength of the Earth 18 240.0% 15.39 216.67% -0.282 0.2709 -0.751
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 31 20.69% 25.45 48.39% 0.216 0.4724 -0.5
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 8 37.5% 14.5 37.5% -1.1 -0.2031 0.0
Volcano Looming High 41 100.0% 27.61 100.0% 0.23 0.2402 0.253

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Manifestation of Power and Glory 92.33%
Sudden Ambush 88.73%
Voice of Thunder 95.03%
Words of Warning 98.4%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 818 21.03 13.2%
II 1040 31.04 72.6%
III 569 34.74 90.16%
IV 123 38.02 98.37%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 108
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 504
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 731
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 119
Game abandoned (v.3.0+) 644
Lose: Invader deck ran out 7
Lose: Adversary condition 141
Win: Sacrifice victory 5
Lose: Scenario condition 19
Win: Scenario condition 30
Lose: Blight pool ran out 221
Lose: Spirit destroyed 21

Difficulty

Score Model: 1.141 Win Model: -0.189

Number of Players

Score Model: -0.115 Win Model: -0.175
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 1394 43.35% 26.48 56.89%
2 608 40.83% 29.95 63.65%
3 316 43.81% 30.24 64.56%
4 104 38.46% 25.99 59.62%
5 15 40.0% 22.67 60.0%
6 113 14.29% 17.64 37.17%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-11-29 03:49:58 (Pacific Time)