Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 4 0.0% 32.25 100.0% 0.065 0.505 0.0
Blitz 0 284 48.75% 29.01 66.55% -0.028 0.2276 -1.38
Dahan Insurrection 4 670 33.88% 54.55 74.63% 0.705 1.0069 1.271
Despicable Theft 2 103 46.6% 30.47 67.96% 0.134 0.6787 -0.525
Elemental Invocation 1 218 55.76% 29.93 58.26% -1.1 -0.4888 -0.42
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2186 12.65% 49.68 81.29% -0.369 -0.1751 1.194
Powers Long Forgotten 1 193 51.56% 32.91 70.98% 0.457 0.7018 -0.832
Rituals of Terror 3 143 42.25% 45.66 77.62% -0.441 -1.2768 1.738
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 60 75.0% 31.52 40.0% 0.019 0.5445 -0.681
Second Wave 0 1302 43.18% 29.42 74.04% -0.302 0.2708 -0.574
The Great River 3 208 54.81% 30.63 45.67% -0.33 1.3092 -0.57
Varied Terrains 2 11 45.45% 34.0 72.73% -0.528 0.2179 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 279 58.27% 31.62 50.18% -1.779 -0.724 -1.109

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9012 51.14% 28.88 65.66% 0.031 0.4768 0.154
1 Thematic 618 59.05% 31.68 50.0% -0.001 0.6305 -0.393
2 Archipelago 22 45.45% 34.0 77.27% 0.0 0.0128 -0.489
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3594 50.99% 30.45 70.92% -0.348 -0.0039 0.378
2 Coastline 734 46.7% 30.24 63.62% -0.011 0.0722 -0.206
2 Fragment 131 46.46% 29.69 74.05% 0.12 0.2081 0.677
2 Heart 69 40.58% 27.36 73.91% 0.295 0.9064 -1.01
2 Opposite Shores 1428 33.17% 33.66 77.03% 0.576 0.9545 -0.486
2 Thematic 346 58.72% 34.94 62.14% -0.495 0.0224 -0.336
2 Top to Top 156 49.67% 28.92 73.72% -0.072 0.0668 0.263
3 Archipelago 28 35.71% 38.39 89.29% 0.285 -0.6925 0.821
3 Coastline 52 61.54% 33.92 63.46% 0.356 -0.2929 0.92
3 Other 170 41.57% 31.61 80.0% 0.233 -0.8381 -0.425
3 Round (Default) 3049 39.54% 33.79 76.71% 0.267 0.4595 0.202
3 Sunrise 15 73.33% 35.13 73.33% 0.044 0.3642 0.543
3 Thematic 124 66.94% 32.11 51.61% 0.342 0.0959 -1.039
4 Archipelago 22 54.55% 43.09 68.18% 0.0 -0.4019 -1.026
4 Coastline 34 29.41% 32.76 73.53% -0.542 -0.344 0.0
4 Leaf 17 43.75% 30.94 76.47% 0.0 0.4908 0.0
4 Other 109 48.15% 36.72 88.07% 0.032 -0.5089 1.565
4 Thematic 703 30.67% 49.69 75.82% -0.399 -0.3929 -0.352
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2034 37.87% 35.2 79.2% 0.446 0.3046 -0.026
5 Archipelago 19 52.63% 42.58 78.95% 0.0 -0.3169 -0.287
5 Other 118 24.79% 44.45 94.07% 0.544 0.3691 0.44
5 Thematic 33 37.5% 49.85 78.79% 0.159 0.1243 -0.174
6 Archipelago 6 50.0% 42.0 83.33% 0.0 -0.7508 0.0
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 45.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.7077 0.0
6 Other 57 14.04% 33.28 92.98% -0.258 0.4387 -0.552
6 Star 17 23.53% 40.06 94.12% 0.14 0.6729 0.188
6 Thematic 206 15.27% 52.1 85.92% 0.045 0.5439 0.681
6 Two Centers (Default) 172 18.6% 49.93 88.95% -0.915 -0.6887 0.738
7 Other 5 60.0% 36.6 60.0% -0.372 -1.1434 -0.791

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 652 27.6 43.71% -1.623 0.2861 -0.478
Aid From Lesser Spirits 673 32.57 54.83% -1.003 0.6815 0.048
All Things Weaken 746 27.66 45.31% -1.316 0.6837 0.232
Back Against the Wall 653 30.93 50.38% -0.942 1.0055 -0.18
Disintegrating Ecosystem 667 27.34 44.98% -1.29 0.7751 -0.237
Downward Spiral 979 27.09 50.56% -0.597 1.3662 -0.356
Erosion of Will 646 28.65 43.96% -1.526 0.5814 -0.598
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 336 33.99 77.98% -0.491 0.1252 0.639
Memory Fades to Dust 924 26.63 45.78% -1.697 0.3606 -0.512
Power Corrodes the Spirit 798 28.29 47.62% -1.487 0.4922 0.043
Promising Farmlands 665 27.13 42.56% -1.087 1.0151 -0.506
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 215 34.25 76.74% -1.036 -0.7069 0.114
Thriving Communities 752 26.42 45.74% -2.064 -0.0144 -0.489
Unnatural Proliferation 851 28.72 48.88% -1.691 0.2528 -0.303
Untended Land Crumbles 746 26.41 43.16% -2.128 -0.1012 -0.645

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7181 41.38% 33.56 74.88% 0.606 1.3654 0.041
B 5609 42.4% 32.96 74.65% 0.101 0.7777 -0.106
C 6413 41.25% 33.0 75.32% 0.054 0.5792 -0.204
D 5497 42.43% 32.32 74.31% -0.306 0.4207 -0.349
E 4716 43.74% 32.62 74.62% 0.095 0.6553 -0.039
F 4516 45.72% 32.32 71.3% 0.044 0.7339 -0.669
G 4208 43.46% 32.41 73.27% -0.033 0.6622 0.274
H 4287 44.76% 32.73 73.41% 0.166 0.8264 -0.075
East 1653 40.46% 43.76 68.78% -0.416 0.2633 -0.874
Northeast 916 39.41% 45.94 73.03% 0.28 0.8498 -0.387
Northwest 840 39.83% 45.51 70.48% 0.139 0.9804 0.468
Southeast 724 29.67% 47.06 75.55% -0.425 0.1014 -0.67
Southwest 662 29.92% 46.31 76.28% 0.495 1.4363 0.312
West 1476 40.6% 44.14 69.04% -0.422 0.578 -0.153

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 651 0.0% 22.67 74.65% -0.737 1.3822 0.782
Not Using Events or Tokens 703 57.61% 23.1 61.74% -0.139 0.1019 -0.879
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1181 11.16% 48.63 90.18% 0.179 -0.1901 1.076
Start of Game Growth 1647 15.43% 45.26 88.04% -0.015 -0.6379 -0.824
Unlimited Undo 2424 34.45% 35.97 80.45% 0.555 -0.076 0.048
Using Tokens but Not Events 3963 25.86% 34.41 83.45% 0.32 0.3639 0.463

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1525 100.0% 41.33 100.0% -0.31 -0.3581 -0.086
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 401 100.0% 33.51 100.0% -0.415 -0.3509 -0.108
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 668 100.0% 31.0 100.0% -0.144 -0.3822 0.059
Downpour Drenches the World 139 100.0% 39.89 100.0% 0.8 1.1915 1.129
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1230 100.0% 31.97 100.0% -0.243 -0.6576 -0.053
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 765 100.0% 34.16 100.0% 0.909 0.3139 0.201
Finder of Paths Unseen 23 100.0% 38.61 100.0% 0.918 1.322 0.157
Fractured Days Split the Sky 540 100.0% 48.02 100.0% -0.309 -0.2672 0.754
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 241 100.0% 33.09 100.0% -0.493 -0.5096 -0.848
Heart of the Wildfire 569 100.0% 30.33 100.0% -0.949 -0.6205 0.087
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1774 100.0% 42.51 100.0% 0.048 -0.5868 0.569
Lightning's Swift Strike 492 327.15% 30.03 184.15% 0.471 0.7446 -0.844
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 58 43.1% 34.14 44.83% 0.094 -0.7386 -0.833
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 636 39.72% 31.97 79.09% 0.44 -0.1321 0.698
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1208 37.16% 36.4 79.39% 0.34 -0.085 0.709
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1112 100.0% 36.33 100.0% -0.334 -0.5406 -0.459
Many Minds Move as One 382 100.0% 32.93 100.0% -0.093 -0.6054 0.026
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3511 100.0% 36.67 100.0% 0.284 0.0009 0.374
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 583 100.0% 30.34 100.0% -0.047 -0.0141 0.558
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 934 100.0% 43.58 100.0% -0.385 -0.5289 -0.295
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 111 448.43% 25.31 328.83% 0.21 0.7119 -0.642
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 10 40.0% 32.5 90.0% -0.455 -0.3161 0.535
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 20 41.18% 31.75 75.0% -0.1 -0.1773 0.446
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 573 42.88% 30.7 74.52% 0.586 0.5837 -0.672
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 422 44.07% 30.6 75.83% -0.82 -0.7507 -0.204
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 653 100.0% 42.0 100.0% 0.281 0.0192 0.267
Shifting Memory of Ages 365 100.0% 40.43 100.0% 0.636 0.6581 -0.31
Shroud of Silent Mist 392 100.0% 31.4 100.0% -0.716 -0.4712 -0.416
Starlight Seeks its Form 333 100.0% 44.04 100.0% -0.006 -0.2174 0.863
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 727 100.0% 33.89 100.0% 0.348 0.1786 0.104
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 705 100.0% 36.27 100.0% -0.244 -0.1332 0.159
Thunderspeaker 1567 100.0% 40.74 100.0% 0.097 0.0012 0.414
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 379 100.0% 30.2 100.0% 0.037 -0.0601 -0.255
Vital Strength of the Earth 490 177.89% 33.42 134.08% 0.543 1.4254 -0.466
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 69 23.53% 43.99 63.77% -0.497 -0.0965 -0.706
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 557 37.91% 29.16 74.51% 0.015 1.0568 -0.224
Volcano Looming High 524 100.0% 32.92 100.0% -0.157 -0.1726 -0.427

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 0.0%
Flash Floods 90.32%
River's Bounty 91.81%
Wash Away 81.76%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5304 22.62 31.49%
II 9401 31.05 74.03%
III 6315 34.62 88.71%
IV 2087 37.86 99.23%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1668
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5402
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6491
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2052
Lose: Invader deck ran out 369
Lose: Adversary condition 2198
Win: Sacrifice victory 50
Lose: Scenario condition 371
Win: Scenario condition 640
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3632
Lose: Spirit destroyed 234

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.287 Win Model: -0.246

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.238 Win Model: 0.388
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9687 51.72% 29.1 64.61%
2 6589 47.26% 31.22 70.69%
3 3365 40.01% 34.07 77.24%
4 2941 35.78% 39.14 78.95%
5 79 18.99% 43.94 93.67%
6 446 17.83% 46.83 87.67%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)