Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 6 33.33% 26.33 83.33% -0.109 0.3872 0.0
Blitz 0 288 48.42% 29.34 67.01% 0.455 0.8986 -1.061
Dahan Insurrection 4 677 33.68% 54.55 74.89% 0.673 0.7705 1.231
Despicable Theft 2 106 46.23% 31.06 67.92% -0.311 0.1875 0.069
Elemental Invocation 1 221 55.91% 29.76 57.92% -0.364 0.1822 -0.406
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 2276 12.9% 49.45 80.62% -0.628 -0.3962 1.115
Powers Long Forgotten 1 197 51.02% 32.87 71.07% 0.216 0.6233 -0.873
Rituals of Terror 3 144 41.96% 45.63 77.78% -0.451 -0.6875 1.668
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 62 75.81% 31.5 40.32% 0.22 0.4466 -0.706
Second Wave 0 1333 42.99% 29.58 74.27% 0.108 0.8002 -0.025
The Great River 3 212 54.72% 30.62 45.75% -0.45 1.1313 -0.497
Varied Terrains 2 12 50.0% 32.67 66.67% -0.649 0.1374 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 280 58.06% 31.63 50.36% -0.567 0.3137 -1.113

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 9248 50.82% 28.89 65.92% -0.024 0.6392 0.134
1 Thematic 632 58.84% 31.8 50.47% -0.349 0.7081 -0.362
2 Archipelago 22 45.45% 34.0 77.27% 0.0 0.4709 -0.485
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 3711 51.1% 30.43 70.87% -0.373 0.1453 0.345
2 Coastline 772 47.4% 30.24 62.18% -0.383 -0.1826 -0.393
2 Fragment 139 46.67% 29.87 71.94% -0.698 -0.4003 0.241
2 Heart 73 43.84% 29.45 75.34% 0.777 1.2374 -0.075
2 Opposite Shores 1465 33.01% 33.75 77.41% 0.768 1.3069 -0.535
2 Thematic 363 58.45% 35.23 62.81% 0.004 0.7858 -0.113
2 Top to Top 157 49.34% 29.0 73.89% 0.212 0.3397 0.209
3 Archipelago 34 35.29% 35.68 85.29% -0.556 -0.7746 0.844
3 Coastline 53 60.38% 33.87 64.15% 0.021 -0.4858 0.878
3 Other 171 41.32% 31.59 80.12% 0.68 0.0156 -0.467
3 Round (Default) 3145 39.86% 33.81 76.47% -0.306 -0.0017 0.135
3 Sunrise 15 73.33% 35.13 73.33% 0.088 0.5481 0.504
3 Thematic 128 64.84% 32.09 52.34% -0.101 0.1073 -1.093
4 Archipelago 22 54.55% 43.09 68.18% 0.0 -0.0374 -0.984
4 Coastline 34 29.41% 32.76 73.53% -0.72 -0.7569 0.0
4 Leaf 17 43.75% 30.94 76.47% 0.0 -0.1019 0.0
4 Other 110 47.71% 36.56 88.18% 0.481 -0.2327 1.547
4 Thematic 718 30.31% 49.42 76.32% -0.045 0.0593 -0.398
4 Trapezoid (Default) 2080 37.78% 35.04 79.28% 0.197 0.2749 -0.069
5 Archipelago 19 52.63% 42.58 78.95% 0.0 -0.0975 -0.294
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 27.0 100.0% 0.016 -0.5718 0.0
5 Other 139 24.44% 41.69 94.96% 0.483 -0.0332 0.465
5 Thematic 33 37.5% 49.85 78.79% 0.058 -0.2291 -0.212
6 Archipelago 6 50.0% 42.0 83.33% 0.0 -0.1464 0.0
6 Coastline 2 0.0% 45.5 100.0% 0.0 -0.634 0.0
6 Other 62 12.9% 32.74 91.94% -0.192 -0.1472 -0.66
6 Star 17 23.53% 40.06 94.12% 0.0 0.7704 0.167
6 Thematic 222 14.16% 52.6 86.94% 1.331 1.5715 0.741
6 Two Centers (Default) 195 17.44% 47.84 86.15% -1.467 -1.276 0.681
7 Other 5 60.0% 36.6 60.0% 0.0 -0.4839 -0.772

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 670 27.62 43.88% -1.396 0.5744 -0.525
Aid From Lesser Spirits 700 32.59 55.43% -0.341 1.4366 0.086
All Things Weaken 769 27.6 45.38% -1.828 0.2207 0.21
Back Against the Wall 669 30.91 49.93% -1.117 0.8226 -0.189
Disintegrating Ecosystem 677 27.36 44.9% -1.437 0.6906 -0.227
Downward Spiral 1003 27.18 50.85% -0.699 1.2622 -0.258
Erosion of Will 663 28.56 44.04% -1.431 0.6507 -0.594
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 343 33.87 78.43% -0.055 0.4468 0.646
Memory Fades to Dust 937 26.6 45.78% -1.369 0.7719 -0.494
Power Corrodes the Spirit 818 28.27 47.8% -1.694 0.2867 0.069
Promising Farmlands 685 27.16 42.04% -1.342 0.6799 -0.499
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 228 34.16 76.32% -1.097 -0.6005 0.082
Thriving Communities 778 26.41 45.63% -2.007 0.052 -0.412
Unnatural Proliferation 876 28.91 49.09% -1.545 0.4117 -0.191
Untended Land Crumbles 768 26.36 42.84% -2.189 -0.156 -0.676

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 7402 41.22% 33.54 74.82% 0.235 0.9709 0.062
B 5799 42.42% 32.9 74.55% -0.166 0.5312 -0.133
C 6612 41.11% 32.93 75.41% -0.042 0.4277 -0.173
D 5703 42.28% 32.3 74.4% -0.255 0.4547 -0.393
E 4886 43.47% 32.51 74.5% -0.466 0.0786 -0.095
F 4665 45.6% 32.25 71.21% -0.204 0.4571 -0.678
G 4358 43.51% 32.32 73.15% -0.065 0.5659 0.205
H 4430 44.43% 32.64 73.54% -0.178 0.4869 -0.105
East 1709 39.84% 43.79 69.51% -0.224 0.438 -0.871
Northeast 955 38.63% 45.94 73.82% 0.024 0.6841 -0.195
Northwest 876 38.99% 45.56 71.35% 0.041 0.6518 0.462
Southeast 752 28.69% 47.24 76.33% 0.214 0.7454 -0.631
Southwest 690 29.28% 46.53 76.81% 0.366 1.3347 0.382
West 1529 40.04% 44.16 69.72% 0.476 1.2814 -0.187

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 665 0.0% 22.64 75.04% -0.649 1.5804 0.835
Not Using Events or Tokens 715 57.51% 23.0 62.1% -0.219 0.0076 -0.952
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1205 10.9% 48.56 90.21% 0.515 -0.465 1.12
Start of Game Growth 1686 15.25% 45.18 88.14% 0.049 -0.4075 -0.674
Unlimited Undo 2487 34.28% 35.94 80.46% 0.612 0.0603 0.022
Using Tokens but Not Events 4095 26.08% 34.32 83.32% -0.024 0.1313 0.407

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 1559 100.0% 41.37 100.0% 0.468 0.393 -0.054
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 419 100.0% 33.35 100.0% -0.436 -0.3578 -0.099
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 693 100.0% 31.07 100.0% 0.33 0.1058 0.132
Downpour Drenches the World 163 100.0% 40.62 100.0% 0.713 0.9781 1.256
Eyes Watch From the Trees 1294 100.0% 31.85 100.0% 0.539 0.0356 0.029
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 786 100.0% 34.16 100.0% 0.28 -0.3062 0.185
Finder of Paths Unseen 31 100.0% 38.94 100.0% -0.252 0.1042 0.312
Fractured Days Split the Sky 546 100.0% 47.87 100.0% 0.408 0.4901 0.821
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 262 100.0% 32.9 100.0% 0.054 -0.0412 -0.648
Heart of the Wildfire 591 100.0% 30.32 100.0% -0.521 -0.1156 0.111
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 1829 100.0% 42.34 100.0% 0.037 -0.566 0.564
Lightning's Swift Strike 515 320.67% 30.0 183.3% 0.151 0.5161 -0.909
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 72 43.06% 33.65 47.22% -0.364 -1.1129 -0.677
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 650 40.09% 31.74 78.77% -0.219 -0.783 0.641
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 1224 37.23% 36.29 79.33% 0.278 -0.2161 0.725
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1152 100.0% 36.34 100.0% 0.616 0.4646 -0.44
Many Minds Move as One 403 100.0% 32.56 100.0% 0.35 -0.2363 0.003
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 3665 100.0% 36.67 100.0% 0.209 0.0397 0.399
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 605 100.0% 30.55 100.0% 0.619 0.563 0.636
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 976 100.0% 43.46 100.0% -0.161 -0.355 -0.287
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 118 440.96% 24.91 321.19% -0.088 0.3861 -0.687
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 13 46.15% 31.77 84.62% 0.213 0.3926 0.072
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 22 42.11% 31.23 77.27% 0.846 0.9013 0.437
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 584 42.93% 30.59 74.49% 0.025 0.0027 -0.589
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 430 44.19% 30.39 75.58% -0.522 -0.4064 -0.137
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 673 100.0% 41.75 100.0% -0.463 -0.6546 0.303
Shifting Memory of Ages 396 100.0% 39.52 100.0% -0.654 -0.4394 -0.444
Shroud of Silent Mist 419 100.0% 31.55 100.0% -0.885 -0.7505 -0.705
Starlight Seeks its Form 361 100.0% 43.51 100.0% -0.396 -0.5109 0.795
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 747 100.0% 33.92 100.0% 0.288 0.0493 0.067
Sun-Bright Whirlwind 730 100.0% 36.01 100.0% 0.199 0.3295 0.196
Thunderspeaker 1596 100.0% 40.66 100.0% 0.053 0.0362 0.436
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 393 100.0% 30.09 100.0% -0.169 -0.3849 -0.283
Vital Strength of the Earth 503 179.42% 33.32 134.39% -0.151 0.747 -0.49
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 78 22.08% 45.6 66.67% -0.458 -0.0354 -0.746
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 572 37.79% 28.96 74.3% -0.521 0.5936 -0.231
Volcano Looming High 546 100.0% 32.76 100.0% -0.22 -0.241 -0.448

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Boon of Vigor 0.0%
Flash Floods 90.28%
River's Bounty 91.79%
Wash Away 81.65%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 5458 22.65 31.64%
II 9682 31.08 74.13%
III 6515 34.66 88.7%
IV 2160 37.91 99.26%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 1725
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 5575
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 6703
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 2125
Lose: Invader deck ran out 378
Lose: Adversary condition 2252
Win: Sacrifice victory 51
Lose: Scenario condition 394
Win: Scenario condition 648
Lose: Blight pool ran out 3728
Lose: Spirit destroyed 236

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.26 Win Model: -0.236

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.215 Win Model: 0.249
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 9938 51.4% 29.12 64.89%
2 6812 47.39% 31.28 70.57%
3 3471 40.2% 34.04 77.01%
4 3003 35.63% 38.95 79.12%
5 102 20.2% 39.84 94.12%
6 489 16.46% 46.4 87.12%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)