Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 16 18.75% 32.38 93.75% 0.13 0.6256 0.225
Blitz 0 985 46.54% 26.86 69.95% 0.287 0.7299 -0.812
Dahan Insurrection 4 1946 24.3% 55.27 80.27% -0.052 0.0449 0.401
Despicable Theft 2 194 45.88% 36.15 76.8% -0.102 0.3968 -0.366
Elemental Invocation 1 223 53.81% 32.17 68.16% -1.018 -0.4722 -0.471
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5151 13.1% 47.89 84.22% 0.227 0.4587 0.361
Powers Long Forgotten 1 625 57.62% 31.31 65.28% 0.246 0.6534 -0.777
Rituals of Terror 3 410 46.06% 40.24 69.76% 1.18 0.9443 0.164
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 409 73.84% 34.73 55.99% 0.751 0.9774 -0.991
Second Wave 0 4152 41.72% 28.95 77.67% -0.374 0.3188 -0.022
The Great River 3 172 62.57% 32.91 55.23% -0.019 1.5622 -1.195
Varied Terrains 2 26 34.62% 31.27 69.23% -1.084 -0.2973 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 744 40.98% 35.22 61.29% -1.442 -0.5615 -0.766

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 43054 49.28% 29.77 69.89% -0.345 0.3178 -0.281
1 Thematic 2575 55.13% 32.99 55.65% -0.507 0.5495 -0.249
2 Archipelago 32 40.63% 34.72 78.13% -0.511 -0.04 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 16782 42.29% 33.88 79.51% 0.077 0.5947 0.064
2 Coastline 2097 36.53% 33.19 81.83% 0.014 0.2143 -0.287
2 Fragment 458 46.71% 32.62 76.2% 0.408 0.7067 0.075
2 Heart 281 45.42% 28.51 75.44% 0.221 0.6814 -0.538
2 Opposite Shores 3359 33.02% 32.95 83.8% 0.061 0.5994 -0.32
2 Thematic 1534 43.73% 38.98 69.17% -0.066 0.7167 0.323
2 Top to Top 530 38.79% 35.52 83.4% -0.029 0.0995 0.128
3 Archipelago 28 17.86% 44.14 89.29% 0.037 -0.181 0.478
3 Coastline 129 40.63% 37.22 81.4% 0.667 0.1594 1.294
3 Other 376 31.06% 32.37 85.9% -0.12 -0.7842 -0.078
3 Round (Default) 10427 34.75% 36.23 82.88% 0.002 0.3066 -0.108
3 Sunrise 81 35.0% 44.31 82.72% 0.165 0.6253 0.788
3 Thematic 429 44.16% 38.52 71.33% 0.116 0.3239 -0.076
4 Archipelago 33 25.0% 44.3 90.91% 0.259 0.2213 -0.563
4 Coastline 41 35.0% 36.24 95.12% 0.035 -0.0018 -0.23
4 Leaf 39 43.59% 32.56 74.36% 0.029 -0.0732 0.709
4 Other 320 33.02% 37.23 85.63% 0.653 -0.0612 0.22
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1583 29.99% 47.81 78.96% 0.048 0.152 0.116
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6973 28.75% 37.97 86.05% -0.092 -0.0145 -0.111
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 41.56 100.0% 0.0 -0.0975 0.0
5 Coastline 20 0.0% 51.6 100.0% 0.592 0.0039 0.414
5 Other 285 29.17% 37.79 89.47% -0.318 -0.8343 -0.042
5 Thematic 38 44.74% 33.32 76.32% -0.472 -0.759 -0.01
6 Archipelago 30 20.0% 42.0 93.33% 0.241 0.0949 -1.152
6 Coastline 30 22.22% 38.1 100.0% 0.322 -0.3115 0.311
6 Other 108 23.23% 32.42 88.89% -0.298 -0.2532 -0.575
6 Star 75 22.67% 37.75 82.67% -0.638 0.1325 -0.871
6 Thematic 193 29.69% 38.25 88.08% 0.074 0.3148 -0.224
6 Two Centers (Default) 467 18.47% 32.35 92.72% -0.931 -0.7393 -0.853
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 34.83 100.0% 0.0 0.1488 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 50.0% 27.5 50.0% 0.0 -0.4839 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3185 30.97 51.96% -1.881 0.0898 -1.079
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2910 32.67 56.32% -1.919 -0.1409 -0.937
All Things Weaken 1832 32.93 55.4% -1.86 0.1884 -0.678
Back Against the Wall 2748 32.34 53.46% -1.69 0.2486 -0.985
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2919 27.23 46.49% -2.454 -0.3256 -1.325
Downward Spiral 5033 26.23 53.9% -2.276 -0.3147 -1.222
Erosion of Will 3058 29.34 47.71% -2.057 0.0243 -1.283
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 713 38.69 81.35% -0.405 0.0967 0.098
Memory Fades to Dust 5165 25.64 50.63% -2.27 -0.1295 -1.25
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1691 31.14 52.04% -2.007 -0.0264 -1.03
Promising Farmlands 2835 28.01 45.75% -1.83 0.1917 -1.593
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 472 38.07 84.75% -0.213 0.2839 0.135
Thriving Communities 1622 29.23 49.57% -1.916 0.143 -1.201
Tipping Point 955 29.14 48.38% 0.0 0.0 -1.288
Unnatural Proliferation 1830 32.08 50.44% -2.121 -0.1637 -1.113
Untended Land Crumbles 1668 29.54 49.1% -2.037 -0.0042 -1.378

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21857 39.06% 33.46 78.76% -0.161 0.575 0.154
B 23943 37.71% 34.17 79.91% -0.124 0.5727 0.237
C 23280 38.52% 34.33 79.87% -0.14 0.3294 0.432
D 21070 37.33% 34.01 80.48% -0.243 0.466 0.288
E 11665 42.09% 35.1 77.65% -0.35 0.194 0.147
F 19423 38.89% 33.61 79.53% 0.229 0.8907 0.417
G 18782 40.33% 33.45 78.73% -0.149 0.4821 0.464
H 19020 38.83% 33.82 79.9% -0.001 0.6635 0.279
East 4652 41.06% 41.0 70.46% -0.332 0.33 -0.523
Northeast 3148 38.83% 42.26 71.79% -0.18 0.4795 -0.548
Northwest 2574 37.08% 43.4 74.59% -0.207 0.4032 -0.563
Southeast 1081 40.17% 38.55 73.91% -0.017 0.5146 0.043
Southwest 974 42.27% 36.57 72.79% 0.767 1.7356 -0.271
West 4318 41.97% 40.56 69.01% -0.951 -0.1453 -1.033

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2653 0.0% 20.0 70.11% -2.346 -0.1171 0.407
Not Using Events or Tokens 8355 37.78% 23.04 75.67% 0.021 0.2476 -0.634
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2452 17.5% 37.35 88.54% 0.618 -0.3626 -0.369
Start of Game Growth 3269 19.29% 37.09 88.41% 0.223 -0.2334 0.139
Unlimited Undo 8415 36.3% 33.4 82.71% 0.681 0.1293 0.413
Using Tokens but Not Events 11345 24.58% 30.45 86.37% -0.031 0.1246 0.019

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4190 100.0% 36.81 100.0% 0.416 0.3405 0.086
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 2001 100.0% 34.3 100.0% 0.099 0.1772 -0.164
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4805 100.0% 33.18 100.0% 0.03 -0.1946 -0.382
Downpour Drenches the World 199 100.0% 35.55 100.0% -0.379 -0.1145 0.187
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5591 100.0% 36.35 100.0% -0.176 -0.6787 -0.043
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4711 100.0% 32.9 100.0% 0.605 0.0182 -0.303
Finder of Paths Unseen 108 100.0% 34.63 100.0% -0.649 -0.2928 -0.267
Fractured Days Split the Sky 645 100.0% 40.99 100.0% 0.244 0.3257 0.267
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 492 100.0% 39.5 100.0% 0.789 0.6944 0.07
Heart of the Wildfire 2592 100.0% 36.8 100.0% 0.648 1.0539 0.333
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4942 100.0% 40.73 100.0% 0.387 -0.2169 0.552
Lightning's Swift Strike 3246 121.01% 33.53 104.99% 0.166 0.531 -0.254
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 91 43.96% 35.71 79.12% -0.359 -1.1081 -0.074
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 398 37.69% 41.27 84.42% 1.048 0.4843 0.673
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 579 30.99% 41.66 86.01% 0.246 -0.2487 0.392
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2171 100.0% 39.35 100.0% -0.208 -0.3594 -0.014
Many Minds Move as One 1054 100.0% 35.77 100.0% 0.065 -0.5209 0.348
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9866 100.0% 39.36 100.0% 0.059 -0.1109 0.186
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4912 100.0% 34.07 100.0% 0.308 0.2515 0.147
River Surges in Sunlight 5686 109.95% 38.61 103.01% -0.215 -0.2892 -0.038
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 730 33.33% 36.01 79.86% -0.226 0.2006 -0.752
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 159 40.65% 45.68 84.91% 0.504 0.1629 0.156
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2852 100.0% 38.31 100.0% -0.17 -0.3632 0.1
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1569 127.7% 31.16 110.2% -0.95 -0.4749 -0.356
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 39 37.84% 29.51 64.1% -0.843 -0.6639 -0.839
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 52 46.15% 42.38 80.77% -0.741 -0.6856 1.192
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 328 39.81% 35.49 78.66% 0.162 0.1397 0.04
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 343 43.03% 37.53 80.76% 0.619 0.7352 0.435
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3147 100.0% 37.58 100.0% 0.206 0.0146 -0.03
Shifting Memory of Ages 589 100.0% 33.87 100.0% -0.203 0.012 -0.441
Shroud of Silent Mist 678 100.0% 33.93 100.0% -0.425 -0.2905 -0.496
Starlight Seeks its Form 576 100.0% 40.52 100.0% 0.676 0.5614 0.708
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2270 100.0% 35.19 100.0% -0.039 -0.2776 -0.375
Thunderspeaker 3552 100.0% 40.66 100.0% 0.194 0.1769 0.2
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1347 100.0% 31.89 100.0% -0.472 -0.6873 -0.459
Vital Strength of the Earth 2335 108.94% 30.47 103.73% -0.816 0.0821 -0.178
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 64 37.7% 40.55 84.38% -0.053 0.3702 0.124
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 297 40.07% 30.61 74.07% -0.289 0.8255 -0.69
Volcano Looming High 1218 100.0% 36.67 100.0% -0.153 -0.174 0.143

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 18324 22.65 42.55%
II 41821 31.08 77.28%
III 25740 34.66 89.83%
IV 6561 37.91 98.98%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7795
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22485
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30805
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6443
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1384
Lose: Adversary condition 5796
Win: Sacrifice victory 188
Lose: Scenario condition 678
Win: Scenario condition 2017
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14329
Lose: Spirit destroyed 526

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.743 Win Model: -0.179

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.379 Win Model: 0.189
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 45738 49.66% 29.96 69.06%
2 25128 40.66% 33.98 79.68%
3 11448 34.93% 36.3 82.68%
4 9031 29.05% 39.72 84.91%
5 198 25.56% 36.26 87.37%
6 903 22.17% 34.08 90.37%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-10-19 02:56:39 (Pacific Time)