Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 14 21.43% 33.29 92.86% 0.367 0.8076 0.176
Blitz 0 956 46.44% 26.77 69.35% -0.119 0.1374 -0.813
Dahan Insurrection 4 1924 24.48% 55.32 80.2% -0.257 0.0448 0.392
Despicable Theft 2 182 44.51% 35.97 76.92% -0.268 0.277 -0.248
Elemental Invocation 1 212 54.25% 32.14 68.4% -0.71 -0.0982 -0.515
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 5037 13.14% 47.87 84.28% -0.017 0.177 0.392
Powers Long Forgotten 1 616 57.82% 31.16 64.94% -0.207 0.0378 -0.787
Rituals of Terror 3 404 46.25% 39.89 69.31% 0.031 -0.8051 0.073
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 404 74.01% 34.65 55.45% 0.069 0.5945 -1.092
Second Wave 0 4071 41.92% 28.96 77.6% -0.704 -0.1311 -0.048
The Great River 3 168 61.68% 32.99 54.76% -1.811 -0.1722 -1.179
Varied Terrains 2 15 33.33% 34.73 80.0% -0.297 0.4481 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 727 40.86% 35.37 61.49% -1.55 -0.4957 -0.696

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 42165 49.31% 29.76 69.89% -0.111 0.3344 -0.265
1 Thematic 2539 55.36% 32.95 55.57% -0.755 -0.1232 -0.197
2 Archipelago 32 40.63% 34.72 78.13% -0.444 -0.4315 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 16433 42.24% 33.91 79.54% -0.141 0.2032 0.099
2 Coastline 2036 36.56% 33.29 81.83% 0.357 0.4395 -0.256
2 Fragment 449 46.65% 32.5 75.95% -0.009 0.0786 0.071
2 Heart 272 45.08% 28.12 75.37% 0.901 1.5125 -0.662
2 Opposite Shores 3304 32.86% 32.9 83.87% -0.223 0.1548 -0.356
2 Thematic 1517 43.63% 38.92 69.08% 0.036 0.5537 0.341
2 Top to Top 518 38.65% 35.59 83.59% 0.167 0.3061 0.17
3 Archipelago 21 19.05% 49.33 90.48% 0.07 -0.9074 0.479
3 Coastline 125 41.13% 37.29 80.8% 0.58 -0.0686 1.25
3 Other 368 30.92% 32.47 85.87% -0.071 -1.142 -0.145
3 Round (Default) 10168 34.67% 36.16 82.95% 0.141 0.3333 -0.096
3 Sunrise 80 35.44% 44.6 82.5% -0.525 -0.2048 0.79
3 Thematic 426 44.0% 38.41 71.6% 0.616 0.3703 -0.051
4 Archipelago 29 28.57% 43.59 89.66% 0.19 -0.212 -0.562
4 Coastline 40 35.9% 36.6 95.0% 0.241 0.4391 -0.208
4 Leaf 39 43.59% 32.56 74.36% 0.02 0.5106 0.692
4 Other 309 32.89% 37.73 85.44% 0.117 -0.4242 0.221
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1557 30.3% 47.87 78.81% -0.298 -0.292 0.115
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6863 28.75% 37.97 86.1% 0.014 -0.1273 -0.113
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 41.56 100.0% 0.004 -0.3127 0.0
5 Coastline 17 0.0% 49.41 100.0% 0.18 -0.0773 0.325
5 Other 265 29.44% 38.18 89.06% -0.738 -0.9131 0.034
5 Thematic 35 42.86% 34.06 77.14% -0.472 -0.507 -0.041
6 Archipelago 28 21.05% 41.96 92.86% 0.251 -0.4996 -1.18
6 Coastline 24 22.22% 40.71 100.0% 0.1 -0.6077 0.299
6 Other 96 20.69% 32.02 89.58% 0.044 0.7407 -0.39
6 Star 66 22.73% 37.7 84.85% -0.155 0.3772 -0.658
6 Thematic 179 28.09% 37.64 87.71% -0.181 0.3175 -0.517
6 Two Centers (Default) 413 19.19% 32.54 93.22% -0.347 -0.1211 -0.859
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 34.83 100.0% 0.0 -0.7346 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 6 50.0% 27.5 50.0% -0.64 -1.412 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3124 30.97 52.02% -1.724 0.1855 -1.053
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2854 32.65 56.45% -1.814 -0.1293 -0.913
All Things Weaken 1773 32.92 55.61% -1.432 0.5673 -0.699
Back Against the Wall 2693 32.32 53.47% -1.666 0.2824 -0.956
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2857 27.22 46.52% -2.03 0.0351 -1.314
Downward Spiral 4943 26.26 54.06% -2.026 -0.063 -1.226
Erosion of Will 3014 29.28 47.58% -2.447 -0.3403 -1.268
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 691 38.71 80.9% -0.489 0.127 0.094
Memory Fades to Dust 5071 25.69 50.7% -1.924 0.1337 -1.244
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1643 31.09 51.98% -2.35 -0.3717 -1.006
Promising Farmlands 2785 27.99 45.57% -2.216 -0.1144 -1.591
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 457 38.12 84.9% 0.602 0.932 0.117
Thriving Communities 1571 29.06 49.33% -1.937 0.1123 -1.168
Tipping Point 955 29.14 48.38% 0.0 0.8445 -1.276
Unnatural Proliferation 1782 32.1 50.51% -2.043 -0.0988 -1.107
Untended Land Crumbles 1606 29.52 49.32% -1.961 0.0654 -1.345

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 21319 39.05% 33.46 78.82% -0.307 0.452 0.162
B 23459 37.74% 34.17 79.84% -0.218 0.4586 0.224
C 22715 38.52% 34.29 79.88% -0.111 0.4143 0.425
D 20595 37.3% 34.02 80.52% -0.218 0.5088 0.3
E 11166 42.05% 35.13 77.86% -0.161 0.3992 0.208
F 18985 38.98% 33.56 79.4% -0.256 0.4343 0.393
G 18392 40.46% 33.48 78.71% -0.212 0.4834 0.463
H 18588 38.88% 33.84 79.87% 0.148 0.8082 0.269
East 4572 41.12% 41.0 70.36% -0.344 0.3354 -0.496
Northeast 3096 38.83% 42.3 71.71% 0.164 0.7337 -0.562
Northwest 2521 37.27% 43.43 74.41% -0.137 0.7049 -0.546
Southeast 1048 40.1% 38.34 73.57% 0.014 0.5405 -0.063
Southwest 947 42.1% 36.37 72.33% -0.431 0.5103 -0.298
West 4243 42.15% 40.53 68.84% -0.32 0.6796 -1.047

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2584 0.0% 19.95 70.05% -2.031 0.0877 0.375
Not Using Events or Tokens 8179 37.91% 23.0 75.61% -0.278 -0.0374 -0.614
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2387 17.35% 37.35 88.56% 0.28 -0.0886 -0.352
Start of Game Growth 3189 18.95% 37.09 88.49% 0.552 -0.0701 0.148
Unlimited Undo 8191 36.29% 33.34 82.69% 0.283 -0.3477 0.411
Using Tokens but Not Events 11018 24.65% 30.52 86.43% 0.283 0.3266 0.021

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 4075 100.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.514 0.4665 0.067
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1965 100.0% 34.43 100.0% 0.12 0.1841 -0.169
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4705 100.0% 33.27 100.0% -0.113 -0.3508 -0.401
Downpour Drenches the World 155 100.0% 35.04 100.0% -0.328 0.0633 0.336
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5454 100.0% 36.43 100.0% -0.039 -0.4538 0.067
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4610 100.0% 32.97 100.0% 0.037 -0.5581 -0.309
Finder of Paths Unseen 81 100.0% 36.22 100.0% -0.554 -0.15 -0.329
Fractured Days Split the Sky 630 100.0% 41.15 100.0% -0.12 -0.0779 0.254
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 452 100.0% 38.99 100.0% 0.304 0.2868 -0.047
Heart of the Wildfire 2545 100.0% 36.69 100.0% 0.264 0.5928 0.296
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4838 100.0% 40.72 100.0% 0.875 0.2404 0.562
Lightning's Swift Strike 3200 120.48% 33.51 104.78% 0.132 0.4056 -0.277
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 70 45.71% 36.06 81.43% 0.374 -0.4591 0.22
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 393 37.4% 41.19 84.22% 0.674 0.1016 0.638
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 561 31.03% 41.73 86.1% 0.005 -0.4198 0.365
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 2088 100.0% 39.27 100.0% -0.261 -0.4681 -0.001
Many Minds Move as One 1017 100.0% 35.85 100.0% -0.099 -0.6115 0.309
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9644 100.0% 39.34 100.0% 0.501 0.2181 0.158
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4785 100.0% 34.08 100.0% -0.099 -0.0663 0.15
River Surges in Sunlight 5580 109.4% 38.7 102.9% 0.003 0.0088 -0.027
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 705 33.77% 36.27 79.72% -0.556 -0.112 -0.736
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 115 38.94% 45.05 83.48% -0.473 -0.716 -0.037
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2800 100.0% 38.35 100.0% -0.647 -0.7911 0.08
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1552 126.7% 31.2 109.6% -0.235 0.2671 -0.368
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 28 44.44% 29.79 60.71% -1.203 -1.0644 -0.807
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 37 43.24% 48.57 91.89% 0.696 0.6186 1.239
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 322 39.94% 35.52 78.57% 0.799 0.7968 0.064
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 339 43.11% 37.63 80.53% -0.454 -0.3845 0.431
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 3068 100.0% 37.6 100.0% 0.727 0.4651 -0.048
Shifting Memory of Ages 552 100.0% 34.05 100.0% -0.638 -0.616 -0.335
Shroud of Silent Mist 652 100.0% 33.9 100.0% -0.441 -0.1965 -0.418
Starlight Seeks its Form 508 100.0% 40.13 100.0% 0.503 0.2912 0.664
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2224 100.0% 35.22 100.0% -0.251 -0.4206 -0.366
Thunderspeaker 3476 100.0% 40.72 100.0% 0.555 0.4595 0.178
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1323 100.0% 31.8 100.0% 0.062 -0.0352 -0.446
Vital Strength of the Earth 2274 108.58% 30.52 103.61% 0.041 0.9234 -0.118
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 52 38.0% 41.69 86.54% -0.047 0.3541 0.018
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 287 40.65% 30.6 73.87% -0.38 0.6621 -0.81
Volcano Looming High 1170 100.0% 36.73 100.0% -0.079 -0.094 0.145

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17906 22.62 42.42%
II 40905 31.05 77.29%
III 25207 34.62 89.82%
IV 6430 37.86 98.97%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7593
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 22019
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 30116
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6314
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1359
Lose: Adversary condition 5677
Win: Sacrifice victory 185
Lose: Scenario condition 664
Win: Scenario condition 1989
Lose: Blight pool ran out 14011
Lose: Spirit destroyed 521

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.731 Win Model: -0.179

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.372 Win Model: 0.253
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 44805 49.7% 29.95 69.05%
2 24610 40.6% 33.99 79.7%
3 11167 34.88% 36.25 82.73%
4 8883 29.13% 39.75 84.9%
5 176 24.54% 35.8 86.93%
6 807 22.09% 34.11 90.71%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-29 02:31:34 (Pacific Time)