Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 743 45.45% 27.28 -0.028 69.45% -0.409 0.1566
Dahan Insurrection 4 1672 24.38% 55.31 -0.003 79.67% -0.386 0.014
Despicable Theft 2 96 47.92% 36.9 0.021 82.29% 0.177 0.4513
Elemental Invocation 1 131 51.15% 32.61 -0.018 71.76% -0.302 0.2005
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4180 13.18% 47.28 0.027 83.56% -0.074 0.291
Powers Long Forgotten 1 531 56.71% 31.15 -0.046 64.6% -0.498 -0.0517
Rituals of Terror 3 345 47.51% 39.8 -0.035 68.41% -0.503 0.1421
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 362 75.14% 34.57 -0.072 53.59% -0.383 0.2634
Second Wave 0 3262 43.0% 29.27 -0.01 76.95% -0.471 -0.0415
The Great River 3 120 65.0% 32.49 -0.111 55.83% -1.549 -0.0759
Ward the Shores 2 609 40.69% 35.8 -0.079 60.76% -1.227 -0.1951

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 33794 49.39% 29.87 -0.021 69.73% -0.81 -0.7238
1 Thematic 2182 55.64% 33.19 -0.061 54.86% -0.732 -0.4556
2 Archipelago 4 25.0% 48.25 0.106 100.0% 0.363 0.3701
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 13297 42.23% 34.07 0.017 79.46% -0.213 -0.1874
2 Coastline 1556 35.07% 33.43 0.027 83.23% -0.157 -0.1817
2 Fragment 369 47.78% 31.85 -0.005 74.53% -0.47 -0.2477
2 Heart 202 45.69% 27.66 -0.018 72.77% -0.763 -0.6632
2 Opposite Shores 2697 32.08% 33.02 0.026 84.54% -0.205 -0.1399
2 Thematic 1296 42.7% 39.37 -0.022 68.6% -0.338 -0.4044
2 Top to Top 423 38.88% 35.94 0.03 82.98% -0.059 -0.1275
3 Archipelago 2 50.0% 81.5 0.153 100.0% 0.244 1.0487
3 Coastline 93 44.57% 39.41 -0.002 75.27% -0.04 -0.1905
3 Other 281 33.94% 34.01 0.021 85.05% -0.223 -0.0505
3 Round (Default) 8180 33.73% 36.37 0.018 83.01% -0.031 -0.0695
3 Sunrise 68 34.33% 47.66 0.027 83.82% 0.168 -0.092
3 Thematic 333 43.98% 39.4 -0.023 69.97% -0.163 -0.5288
4 Archipelago 7 28.57% 51.29 0.055 100.0% 0.376 0.9233
4 Coastline 24 37.5% 40.0 0.051 91.67% 0.65 0.7699
4 Leaf 31 45.16% 33.32 -0.035 74.19% -0.532 -0.4599
4 Other 257 35.04% 39.25 0.02 85.6% 0.103 0.0342
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 0.062 100.0% 0.141 -0.6611
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.108 100.0% 0.582 0.7082
4 Thematic 1360 30.25% 48.49 0.005 79.34% 0.209 -0.7875
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5749 28.64% 37.86 0.015 85.81% 0.054 0.062
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 56.5 0.074 100.0% 0.189 1.3485
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.065 100.0% 0.036 -0.1532
5 Other 114 32.11% 40.48 0.046 91.23% 0.862 0.4007
5 Thematic 16 50.0% 37.81 0.064 87.5% 0.984 -1.4072

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2564 30.99 -0.125 52.38% -2.185 -0.1153
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2293 32.77 -0.108 56.13% -2.027 -0.1146
All Things Weaken 1306 32.83 -0.108 55.28% -2.005 0.154
Back Against the Wall 2193 32.3 -0.123 53.03% -2.158 -0.0708
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2335 27.19 -0.156 46.08% -2.447 -0.2249
Downward Spiral 4060 26.47 -0.124 54.16% -2.194 -0.1719
Erosion of Will 2462 29.27 -0.149 47.52% -2.386 -0.1788
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 481 38.89 0.004 80.04% -0.862 -0.1828
Memory Fades to Dust 4134 25.82 -0.143 50.58% -2.385 -0.1698
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1210 31.56 -0.124 52.15% -2.159 -0.1375
Promising Farmlands 2283 27.93 -0.16 45.34% -2.493 -0.2849
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 349 38.07 0.018 83.38% -0.635 -0.2236
Thriving Communities 1153 28.87 -0.144 47.88% -2.331 -0.2425
Tipping Point 955 29.14 -0.142 48.38% -2.291 -0.066
Unnatural Proliferation 1332 32.19 -0.13 50.38% -2.169 -0.0879
Untended Land Crumbles 1188 30.13 -0.131 50.25% -2.192 -0.0899

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9362 43.22% 31.59 -0.002 74.77% 0.204 -0.4836
B 9970 41.46% 32.72 -0.001 75.83% 0.194 -0.5895
C 10246 42.46% 33.08 0.008 76.79% 0.331 -0.6819
D 8788 40.09% 32.71 0.012 78.19% 0.364 -0.4132
E 4345 47.44% 34.23 -0.003 72.96% 0.318 -0.5764
F 8268 43.14% 32.35 0.003 75.82% 0.283 -0.5575
G 8170 45.32% 32.02 -0.002 74.69% 0.242 -0.5899
H 8223 43.24% 32.31 0.005 76.29% 0.303 -0.536
East 997 39.84% 42.41 -0.02 70.71% -0.276 -0.8524
Northeast 1236 46.61% 39.63 -0.044 63.35% -0.459 -0.9839
Northwest 986 40.22% 41.63 -0.008 72.52% -0.072 -0.6667
Southeast 365 44.51% 35.39 -0.034 66.03% -0.436 -1.0654
Southwest 290 49.48% 33.8 -0.045 63.1% -0.462 -0.6604
West 1099 50.73% 38.16 -0.059 57.23% -0.469 -0.7963

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 2034 0.0% 19.6 -0.068 69.91% -2.015 0.038
Not Using Events or Tokens 6284 38.88% 23.16 -0.004 75.02% -0.251 -0.0363
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1879 17.99% 38.36 0.033 87.33% 0.233 -0.4534
Start of Game Growth 2550 19.05% 37.82 0.038 87.73% 0.555 0.0857
Unlimited Undo 6359 37.09% 33.59 0.022 81.73% 0.319 -0.1042
Using Tokens but Not Events 8608 26.05% 30.35 0.035 85.57% 0.183 0.1324

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3199 28.67% 37.0 0.022 84.71% 0.05 0.1547
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1610 42.17% 34.96 -0.007 77.95% -0.28 -0.0823
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3686 29.39% 34.12 0.017 84.16% -0.027 -0.141
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4225 25.74% 37.12 0.024 86.2% 0.092 -0.3117
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3701 31.2% 33.46 0.018 84.19% 0.042 -0.2635
Fractured Days Split the Sky 454 30.31% 42.11 0.038 87.67% 0.392 0.7407
Heart of the Wildfire 2165 48.79% 37.22 -0.0 76.91% 0.0 0.3187
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4011 33.37% 40.61 0.034 85.74% 0.384 0.0412
Lightning's Swift Strike 3190 35.75% 35.8 0.007 81.22% -0.11 0.116
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1366 42.76% 39.81 0.022 81.7% 0.262 -0.0242
Many Minds Move as One 765 37.81% 36.2 0.014 82.48% -0.034 -0.5675
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7755 33.63% 39.6 0.026 83.13% 0.32 0.0955
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3813 32.68% 34.48 0.019 84.13% 0.045 0.0588
River Surges in Sunlight 4839 31.51% 38.65 0.009 82.43% -0.172 -0.0509
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2333 35.7% 38.61 0.009 81.05% -0.05 0.0527
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1798 44.61% 33.39 -0.016 75.64% -0.372 0.0328
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2483 35.35% 37.67 0.011 81.76% -0.115 -0.2275
Shifting Memory of Ages 163 40.49% 36.45 0.037 85.89% 0.516 0.6405
Shroud of Silent Mist 347 39.23% 34.67 0.017 83.29% 0.057 0.1138
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1780 38.49% 35.32 0.009 80.17% -0.091 -0.151
Thunderspeaker 2842 30.78% 41.14 0.012 82.97% -0.078 -0.0545
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1017 60.67% 32.44 -0.035 67.94% -0.384 -0.4123
Vital Strength of the Earth 2039 31.22% 31.24 -0.006 79.45% -0.455 0.3886
Volcano Looming High 669 44.19% 38.25 0.008 79.37% -0.024 -0.0138

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 80.18%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.77%
Scatter to the Winds 77.83%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 94.0%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13957 22.37 40.76%
II 32912 30.88 76.98%
III 20357 34.39 89.81%
IV 5119 37.55 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5689
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17753
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 24065
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 5020
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1124
Lose: Adversary condition 4654
Win: Sacrifice victory 141
Lose: Scenario condition 574
Win: Scenario condition 1701
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11205
Lose: Spirit destroyed 419

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.788 Win Model: -0.169

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: 0.032
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 36008 49.78% 30.08 68.83%
2 19907 40.39% 34.17 79.69%
3 8947 34.26% 36.56 82.53%
4 7483 29.09% 39.86 84.7%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.067 Win Model: -0.907
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 69975 33.49 75.5%
Power Progression 2370 19.22 64.81%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-15 02:07:53 (Pacific Time)