Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 698 45.74% 27.59 -0.031 68.62% -0.442 0.1313
Dahan Insurrection 4 1593 24.51% 55.39 -0.002 79.6% -0.37 0.0295
Despicable Theft 2 65 41.54% 37.37 0.033 86.15% 0.343 0.6256
Elemental Invocation 1 110 47.27% 33.46 -0.015 72.73% -0.334 0.1056
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3899 13.25% 47.36 0.027 83.23% -0.069 0.2965
Powers Long Forgotten 1 503 56.69% 31.31 -0.047 64.21% -0.506 -0.0646
Rituals of Terror 3 335 47.73% 40.13 -0.032 68.96% -0.465 0.1786
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 351 75.5% 34.47 -0.075 52.99% -0.419 0.2227
Second Wave 0 3103 42.88% 29.32 -0.009 76.93% -0.476 -0.0476
The Great River 3 106 65.09% 32.84 -0.119 53.77% -1.588 -0.1287
Ward the Shores 2 576 41.99% 35.61 -0.084 59.38% -1.273 -0.2357

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 31240 49.33% 29.7 -0.021 69.57% -1.07 -0.737
1 Thematic 2058 55.51% 33.43 -0.059 54.96% -0.993 -0.4953
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 12416 42.06% 34.04 0.017 79.33% -0.298 -0.0976
2 Coastline 1397 35.9% 33.23 0.027 82.89% -0.236 -0.081
2 Fragment 347 47.35% 32.08 -0.004 74.64% -0.542 -0.1465
2 Heart 189 46.2% 27.99 -0.019 72.49% -0.852 -0.5295
2 Opposite Shores 2484 32.21% 33.25 0.026 84.18% -0.282 -0.0532
2 Thematic 1248 42.82% 39.49 -0.023 68.43% -0.45 -0.3885
2 Top to Top 397 38.64% 36.03 0.029 82.87% -0.151 -0.0188
3 Coastline 83 45.12% 40.07 -0.003 74.7% 0.036 -0.0025
3 Other 257 32.28% 34.32 0.031 87.16% 0.039 0.4589
3 Round (Default) 7693 33.54% 36.38 0.019 83.09% 0.086 0.1416
3 Sunrise 67 34.85% 48.09 0.028 83.58% 0.264 0.0699
3 Thematic 322 44.55% 39.55 -0.019 70.5% -0.048 -0.3775
4 Coastline 21 33.33% 36.95 0.045 90.48% 0.717 0.8421
4 Leaf 30 43.33% 33.87 -0.023 76.67% -0.174 -0.1274
4 Other 231 33.19% 39.08 0.019 85.28% 0.293 0.4051
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 0.062 100.0% 0.18 -0.6025
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.108 100.0% 0.648 0.803
4 Thematic 1291 29.62% 48.46 0.003 78.93% 0.426 -0.5976
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5320 28.65% 37.96 0.014 85.34% 0.305 0.34
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.064 100.0% 0.046 -0.0822
5 Other 95 29.79% 38.54 0.049 91.58% 1.093 0.8381
5 Thematic 10 50.0% 33.1 0.085 90.0% 1.188 -1.755

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2382 30.95 -0.125 52.27% -2.173 -0.0995
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2137 32.57 -0.108 56.11% -2.02 -0.1009
All Things Weaken 1161 32.83 -0.107 55.21% -1.975 0.1835
Back Against the Wall 2056 32.08 -0.125 52.63% -2.159 -0.0655
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2190 27.02 -0.158 45.43% -2.459 -0.2342
Downward Spiral 3778 26.39 -0.125 53.86% -2.19 -0.1694
Erosion of Will 2311 29.27 -0.151 46.86% -2.384 -0.1753
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 421 38.17 0.0 79.1% -0.911 -0.2182
Memory Fades to Dust 3892 25.69 -0.144 50.39% -2.374 -0.1552
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1074 31.6 -0.122 52.42% -2.13 -0.1092
Promising Farmlands 2140 27.93 -0.16 45.23% -2.482 -0.2677
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 301 38.3 0.018 83.06% -0.616 -0.2046
Thriving Communities 1025 28.78 -0.142 48.1% -2.295 -0.2022
Tipping Point 955 29.14 -0.142 48.38% -2.277 -0.0511
Unnatural Proliferation 1181 31.92 -0.13 50.38% -2.157 -0.0675
Untended Land Crumbles 1072 29.6 -0.134 49.44% -2.205 -0.0988

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8760 43.18% 31.52 -0.003 74.58% 0.186 -0.9261
B 9336 41.35% 32.61 -0.001 75.61% 0.168 -1.0402
C 9469 42.49% 32.93 0.007 76.48% 0.306 -1.1332
D 8154 39.96% 32.63 0.012 78.06% 0.345 -0.8572
E 3860 46.97% 34.15 -0.002 73.01% 0.296 -1.0166
F 7683 42.85% 32.25 0.003 75.79% 0.267 -0.9988
G 7585 45.5% 32.12 -0.001 74.65% 0.239 -1.0178
H 7627 43.15% 32.29 0.005 76.18% 0.282 -0.9835
East 954 39.53% 42.67 -0.019 70.86% -0.256 -1.2372
Northeast 1164 45.83% 39.96 -0.043 63.83% -0.438 -1.3691
Northwest 945 40.17% 41.67 -0.007 72.49% -0.044 -1.0432
Southeast 337 45.83% 35.37 -0.032 65.88% -0.376 -1.4012
Southwest 276 48.35% 34.05 -0.046 62.68% -0.472 -1.0924
West 1054 51.19% 37.94 -0.06 56.45% -0.451 -1.1763

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1895 0.0% 19.45 -0.066 70.34% -1.985 0.0689
Not Using Events or Tokens 5786 39.11% 23.05 -0.005 74.84% -0.272 -0.0538
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1765 18.04% 38.63 0.034 87.48% 0.257 -0.4365
Start of Game Growth 2419 18.91% 38.08 0.038 87.85% 0.56 0.0972
Unlimited Undo 5783 36.84% 33.8 0.022 81.64% 0.307 -0.1138
Using Tokens but Not Events 7924 26.39% 30.16 0.034 85.23% 0.164 0.1121

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3000 28.39% 36.92 0.021 84.53% 0.051 0.1839
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1512 41.63% 35.15 -0.007 77.78% -0.277 -0.0489
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3494 29.68% 34.24 0.017 83.86% -0.017 -0.1028
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3916 25.77% 37.32 0.023 85.75% 0.081 -0.2916
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3489 31.34% 33.54 0.019 84.04% 0.066 -0.1941
Fractured Days Split the Sky 403 29.93% 42.0 0.038 87.34% 0.389 0.757
Heart of the Wildfire 2084 48.47% 37.44 0.0 76.73% 0.019 0.3694
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3796 32.98% 40.5 0.033 85.48% 0.39 0.0863
Lightning's Swift Strike 2971 35.94% 35.83 0.006 80.85% -0.101 0.1578
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1126 43.16% 39.84 0.018 80.46% 0.253 -0.0201
Many Minds Move as One 713 38.05% 35.91 0.014 82.19% -0.024 -0.5389
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7283 33.34% 39.7 0.026 83.14% 0.348 0.1525
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3586 32.7% 34.44 0.018 83.74% 0.043 0.0886
River Surges in Sunlight 4522 31.32% 38.67 0.01 82.35% -0.151 0.0012
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2216 35.71% 38.67 0.009 80.87% -0.031 0.113
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1705 44.23% 33.53 -0.014 75.78% -0.337 0.1036
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2340 35.14% 37.58 0.011 81.71% -0.097 -0.1685
Shroud of Silent Mist 268 37.97% 35.48 0.021 83.96% 0.143 0.1227
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1675 38.39% 35.14 0.009 80.06% -0.076 -0.0961
Thunderspeaker 2671 31.05% 41.17 0.012 82.55% -0.064 -0.0127
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 956 61.3% 32.21 -0.037 67.26% -0.378 -0.3701
Vital Strength of the Earth 1907 31.23% 31.47 -0.005 79.5% -0.418 0.4525
Volcano Looming High 557 44.83% 38.31 0.007 78.64% -0.017 -0.0407

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 80.02%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.72%
Scatter to the Winds 77.91%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 94.06%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12936 22.34 40.26%
II 30520 30.81 76.79%
III 18995 34.31 89.84%
IV 4753 37.5 98.84%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5208
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 16559
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 22242
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4658
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1061
Lose: Adversary condition 4374
Win: Sacrifice victory 130
Lose: Scenario condition 542
Win: Scenario condition 1609
Lose: Blight pool ran out 10424
Lose: Spirit destroyed 397

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.776 Win Model: -0.17

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: -0.154
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 33308 49.72% 29.93 68.67%
2 18541 40.39% 34.19 79.47%
3 8416 34.05% 36.61 82.68%
4 6939 28.96% 39.91 84.15%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.061 Win Model: -0.855
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 64990 33.43 75.32%
Power Progression 2214 19.63 65.85%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-02-27 02:06:44 (Pacific Time)