Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 672 46.03% 27.42 -0.031 68.45% -0.445 0.1363
Dahan Insurrection 4 1522 24.93% 55.16 -0.003 79.11% -0.385 0.0184
Despicable Theft 2 38 31.58% 35.18 0.011 84.21% -0.148 0.2016
Elemental Invocation 1 83 49.4% 33.83 -0.001 75.9% -0.107 0.265
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3711 13.34% 47.41 0.028 83.13% -0.066 0.2987
Powers Long Forgotten 1 488 57.41% 31.18 -0.05 63.52% -0.52 -0.0792
Rituals of Terror 3 315 47.91% 40.68 -0.023 70.48% -0.337 0.2976
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 344 75.58% 34.28 -0.077 52.33% -0.444 0.1963
Second Wave 0 2902 42.58% 29.51 -0.009 76.95% -0.461 -0.0368
The Great River 3 90 65.56% 34.28 -0.105 56.67% -1.431 -0.01
Ward the Shores 2 554 41.85% 35.68 -0.083 59.57% -1.257 -0.2159

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 29095 49.44% 29.51 -0.021 69.41% -1.001 -0.6733
1 Thematic 1900 56.07% 33.32 -0.062 54.0% -0.934 -0.46
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11735 42.11% 34.06 0.017 79.16% -0.262 -0.0656
2 Coastline 1306 35.61% 33.37 0.027 82.92% -0.215 -0.0645
2 Fragment 322 46.98% 31.04 -0.004 74.53% -0.521 -0.1171
2 Heart 176 47.37% 27.9 -0.014 73.3% -0.748 -0.4359
2 Opposite Shores 2340 32.82% 33.44 0.025 83.72% -0.253 -0.0292
2 Thematic 1214 42.45% 39.63 -0.023 68.29% -0.419 -0.3901
2 Top to Top 372 38.4% 36.09 0.026 81.99% -0.193 -0.0529
3 Coastline 76 42.67% 40.8 0.0 76.32% 0.032 -0.0155
3 Other 236 33.48% 34.72 0.03 86.44% 0.046 0.4847
3 Round (Default) 7277 33.44% 36.41 0.02 83.12% 0.105 0.1628
3 Sunrise 64 33.33% 48.69 0.032 84.38% 0.324 0.1265
3 Thematic 303 43.71% 39.4 -0.021 69.97% -0.079 -0.4402
4 Coastline 21 33.33% 36.95 0.043 90.48% 0.636 0.8073
4 Leaf 28 46.43% 33.07 -0.029 75.0% -0.228 -0.1641
4 Other 211 33.97% 39.17 0.017 84.83% 0.247 0.3786
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 0.063 100.0% 0.177 -0.6031
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.109 100.0% 0.645 0.8003
4 Thematic 1230 29.3% 48.52 0.005 79.02% 0.421 -0.6384
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5007 28.74% 38.04 0.013 85.1% 0.268 0.306
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.064 100.0% 0.045 -0.0846
5 Other 77 34.21% 39.26 0.045 89.61% 0.941 0.7423
5 Thematic 10 50.0% 33.1 0.085 90.0% 1.179 -1.7778

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2258 30.93 -0.126 52.08% -2.171 -0.1007
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2004 32.4 -0.108 55.89% -2.022 -0.1001
All Things Weaken 1041 32.75 -0.107 54.76% -1.973 0.1809
Back Against the Wall 1936 31.95 -0.126 52.32% -2.166 -0.0694
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2080 26.94 -0.158 45.38% -2.454 -0.2281
Downward Spiral 3572 26.36 -0.125 53.7% -2.192 -0.1729
Erosion of Will 2195 29.16 -0.152 46.47% -2.389 -0.1785
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 384 38.28 0.002 79.43% -0.881 -0.1878
Memory Fades to Dust 3685 25.66 -0.144 50.12% -2.385 -0.1696
Power Corrodes the Spirit 962 31.25 -0.122 52.08% -2.135 -0.118
Promising Farmlands 1998 28.02 -0.158 45.5% -2.458 -0.2442
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 276 38.72 0.022 83.7% -0.552 -0.1217
Thriving Communities 926 28.32 -0.143 47.73% -2.306 -0.2104
Tipping Point 954 29.16 -0.141 48.43% -2.264 -0.0429
Unnatural Proliferation 1077 31.56 -0.134 49.3% -2.187 -0.1005
Untended Land Crumbles 990 29.46 -0.131 49.8% -2.187 -0.0905

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 8230 43.35% 31.46 -0.004 74.19% 0.176 -0.925
B 8785 41.03% 32.63 -0.0 75.75% 0.176 -1.02
C 8885 42.48% 32.92 0.007 76.32% 0.3 -1.1286
D 7619 40.01% 32.46 0.012 77.86% 0.341 -0.8501
E 3472 47.7% 33.92 -0.003 72.55% 0.298 -1.0009
F 7218 43.17% 32.28 0.003 75.56% 0.27 -0.9846
G 7175 45.39% 32.02 -0.0 74.68% 0.246 -0.9965
H 7135 43.15% 32.37 0.006 76.24% 0.299 -0.9587
East 925 38.82% 42.9 -0.017 71.14% -0.238 -1.1984
Northeast 1110 45.54% 39.8 -0.043 63.69% -0.441 -1.3426
Northwest 882 39.52% 41.92 -0.008 72.22% -0.056 -1.0308
Southeast 306 45.9% 34.91 -0.034 65.36% -0.409 -1.4137
Southwest 251 50.0% 33.57 -0.045 62.95% -0.452 -1.052
West 1015 51.68% 37.8 -0.062 55.57% -0.458 -1.1579

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1788 0.0% 19.26 -0.066 70.08% -1.994 0.0541
Not Using Events or Tokens 5457 39.12% 23.09 -0.005 74.71% -0.251 -0.0307
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1646 17.91% 38.98 0.034 87.3% 0.256 -0.4492
Start of Game Growth 2255 18.77% 38.31 0.037 87.63% 0.518 0.0659
Unlimited Undo 5454 36.95% 33.91 0.023 81.48% 0.307 -0.1098
Using Tokens but Not Events 7362 26.53% 30.15 0.036 85.3% 0.199 0.1477

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2849 28.68% 37.13 0.021 84.13% 0.034 0.1694
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1430 41.68% 35.24 -0.006 77.83% -0.25 -0.0192
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3318 29.92% 34.47 0.017 83.54% -0.022 -0.1085
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3748 25.82% 37.44 0.024 85.75% 0.097 -0.2735
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3314 31.44% 33.76 0.018 83.71% 0.054 -0.2016
Fractured Days Split the Sky 337 32.54% 41.25 0.037 86.94% 0.428 0.7897
Heart of the Wildfire 2002 48.39% 37.54 0.002 76.87% 0.038 0.3874
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3570 33.22% 40.4 0.034 85.38% 0.389 0.0875
Lightning's Swift Strike 2804 36.18% 35.95 0.006 80.56% -0.111 0.1501
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 945 44.36% 39.53 0.018 80.11% 0.259 -0.031
Many Minds Move as One 667 36.86% 35.82 0.013 82.16% -0.08 -0.6072
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6922 33.29% 39.75 0.026 82.91% 0.336 0.1397
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3423 32.49% 34.53 0.019 83.7% 0.047 0.0914
River Surges in Sunlight 4287 31.39% 38.68 0.01 82.16% -0.152 0.0007
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2101 35.89% 38.81 0.009 80.63% -0.034 0.1097
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1616 44.71% 33.69 -0.014 75.68% -0.322 0.1201
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2246 34.86% 37.46 0.012 81.83% -0.1 -0.1718
Shroud of Silent Mist 171 38.24% 35.53 0.022 83.63% 0.176 0.1528
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1580 38.27% 35.03 0.008 79.81% -0.102 -0.1232
Thunderspeaker 2537 30.82% 41.28 0.012 82.5% -0.057 -0.0035
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 890 61.51% 32.23 -0.033 67.87% -0.327 -0.313
Vital Strength of the Earth 1800 31.16% 31.54 -0.006 79.06% -0.436 0.4321
Volcano Looming High 463 45.41% 38.8 0.005 77.75% -0.031 -0.0602

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 79.96%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.66%
Scatter to the Winds 77.8%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 94.02%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 12133 22.33 39.78%
II 28557 30.75 76.69%
III 17860 34.25 89.78%
IV 4458 37.47 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4826
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 15553
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 20768
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4368
Lose: Invader deck ran out 994
Lose: Adversary condition 4136
Win: Sacrifice victory 121
Lose: Scenario condition 515
Win: Scenario condition 1533
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9821
Lose: Spirit destroyed 373

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.758 Win Model: -0.171

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: -0.119
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 31002 49.86% 29.75 68.47%
2 17523 40.47% 34.24 79.24%
3 7952 33.93% 36.65 82.68%
4 6531 29.05% 40.01 83.92%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.062 Win Model: -0.855
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 60941 33.38 75.18%
Power Progression 2067 19.62 65.51%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-01-22 01:48:30 (Pacific Time)