Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 610 45.29% 27.8 -0.026 69.34% -0.393 0.1791
Dahan Insurrection 4 1399 25.05% 55.14 -0.002 79.06% -0.364 0.0365
Elemental Invocation 1 31 58.06% 30.68 -0.05 64.52% -0.617 -0.1514
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3429 13.24% 47.35 0.028 82.97% -0.064 0.3113
Powers Long Forgotten 1 440 57.99% 31.23 -0.053 62.5% -0.55 -0.1028
Rituals of Terror 3 292 47.75% 40.96 -0.023 70.21% -0.331 0.2913
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 329 75.68% 34.25 -0.081 51.06% -0.497 0.1269
Second Wave 0 2643 43.14% 29.46 -0.01 76.39% -0.491 -0.0722
The Great River 3 67 65.67% 35.72 -0.091 59.7% -1.294 0.191
Ward the Shores 2 519 41.39% 35.82 -0.079 60.31% -1.221 -0.1901

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 26443 49.54% 29.61 -0.021 69.16% -1.016 -0.661
1 Thematic 1719 56.27% 33.51 -0.064 52.94% -1.008 -0.511
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 10629 42.0% 34.3 0.018 79.2% -0.22 -0.0304
2 Coastline 1166 35.3% 33.7 0.03 83.53% -0.137 -0.0018
2 Fragment 293 45.49% 30.26 -0.011 73.04% -0.614 -0.1883
2 Heart 164 47.83% 27.61 -0.014 73.17% -0.702 -0.411
2 Opposite Shores 2124 33.08% 33.72 0.024 83.24% -0.247 -0.0203
2 Thematic 1122 42.1% 39.83 -0.024 68.0% -0.477 -0.4323
2 Top to Top 332 37.27% 36.76 0.026 81.93% -0.161 -0.0449
3 Coastline 72 40.85% 41.18 0.004 77.78% 0.114 0.0761
3 Other 218 32.56% 34.92 0.028 86.24% 0.052 0.4536
3 Round (Default) 6579 33.48% 36.44 0.021 83.11% 0.2 0.2311
3 Sunrise 62 32.79% 48.92 0.032 83.87% 0.37 0.1165
3 Thematic 271 44.07% 39.23 -0.03 67.9% -0.167 -0.5057
4 Coastline 18 33.33% 37.33 0.031 88.89% 0.445 0.5671
4 Leaf 25 44.0% 33.52 -0.043 72.0% -0.267 -0.1872
4 Other 190 35.26% 39.66 0.01 83.16% 0.255 0.336
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 30.0 0.03 100.0% 0.065 -0.7273
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.11 100.0% 0.678 0.8043
4 Thematic 1129 29.17% 48.61 0.004 78.74% 0.478 -0.6003
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4535 28.29% 38.06 0.014 85.18% 0.407 0.3747
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.067 100.0% 0.053 0.0031
5 Other 71 31.43% 38.66 0.041 88.73% 0.934 0.7173
5 Thematic 9 55.56% 33.56 0.086 88.89% 1.187 -1.5807

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2066 31.16 -0.125 52.08% -2.153 -0.0846
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1829 32.43 -0.109 55.44% -2.022 -0.1056
All Things Weaken 884 33.37 -0.106 54.64% -1.935 0.2255
Back Against the Wall 1755 32.15 -0.125 52.19% -2.152 -0.0596
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1909 27.22 -0.158 45.21% -2.446 -0.2246
Downward Spiral 3286 26.35 -0.125 53.53% -2.188 -0.1734
Erosion of Will 2027 29.19 -0.151 46.42% -2.376 -0.1648
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 329 38.57 -0.0 78.42% -0.9 -0.1878
Memory Fades to Dust 3364 25.61 -0.146 49.61% -2.39 -0.174
Power Corrodes the Spirit 830 31.24 -0.123 51.57% -2.129 -0.1096
Promising Farmlands 1845 28.18 -0.155 45.75% -2.438 -0.2234
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 234 39.07 0.017 82.48% -0.604 -0.1871
Thriving Communities 808 28.15 -0.148 46.41% -2.343 -0.2365
Tipping Point 953 29.14 -0.141 48.37% -2.264 -0.0478
Unnatural Proliferation 917 31.76 -0.131 49.4% -2.145 -0.0644
Untended Land Crumbles 859 29.25 -0.139 48.08% -2.251 -0.1554

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7471 43.27% 31.6 -0.004 73.98% 0.144 -0.9295
B 8013 41.22% 32.65 -0.001 75.43% 0.13 -1.0345
C 8074 42.43% 33.05 0.007 76.05% 0.26 -1.1372
D 6980 40.24% 32.61 0.012 77.68% 0.321 -0.8368
E 2967 48.69% 34.05 -0.004 71.86% 0.272 -0.9844
F 6527 42.87% 32.38 0.003 75.52% 0.239 -0.9867
G 6526 45.24% 32.04 0.001 74.78% 0.226 -0.9864
H 6486 43.04% 32.62 0.007 76.24% 0.276 -0.9457
East 850 38.95% 42.77 -0.019 70.24% -0.228 -1.1639
Northeast 1029 45.62% 40.15 -0.043 63.27% -0.396 -1.2655
Northwest 818 38.94% 42.11 -0.008 71.88% -0.03 -0.9748
Southeast 273 45.05% 35.08 -0.035 64.84% -0.404 -1.387
Southwest 217 50.0% 33.46 -0.043 62.67% -0.388 -1.0135
West 947 50.64% 38.11 -0.059 55.65% -0.376 -1.0408

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1613 0.0% 19.18 -0.065 70.49% -1.988 0.0509
Not Using Events or Tokens 4875 39.29% 23.13 -0.004 74.71% -0.258 -0.0374
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1515 17.94% 39.47 0.035 87.06% 0.308 -0.3976
Start of Game Growth 2059 18.94% 38.71 0.038 87.32% 0.479 0.0203
Unlimited Undo 4905 37.66% 34.01 0.021 80.88% 0.287 -0.1151
Using Tokens but Not Events 6712 26.71% 30.05 0.035 84.98% 0.188 0.1418

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2615 28.71% 37.28 0.021 83.98% 0.041 0.1875
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1319 41.01% 35.34 -0.007 77.71% -0.26 -0.0238
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3043 29.83% 34.67 0.017 83.54% -0.007 -0.0939
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3464 25.49% 37.7 0.025 85.8% 0.114 -0.2548
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3065 31.43% 33.93 0.019 83.72% 0.068 -0.1653
Fractured Days Split the Sky 250 28.92% 41.33 0.039 88.0% 0.467 0.801
Heart of the Wildfire 1851 48.28% 37.94 0.005 77.42% 0.093 0.4404
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3272 33.43% 40.27 0.033 85.21% 0.392 0.0946
Lightning's Swift Strike 2546 35.9% 35.76 0.004 80.16% -0.144 0.1241
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 669 46.26% 39.19 0.02 79.67% 0.325 -0.0358
Many Minds Move as One 582 36.68% 35.99 0.012 81.62% -0.103 -0.616
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6381 33.2% 39.97 0.027 82.9% 0.366 0.1692
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3151 32.17% 34.7 0.019 83.69% 0.046 0.0933
River Surges in Sunlight 3910 30.85% 38.72 0.01 82.05% -0.17 -0.003
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 1931 36.57% 39.07 0.009 80.22% -0.014 0.1356
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1449 44.9% 33.75 -0.015 75.36% -0.324 0.1257
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2069 35.04% 37.74 0.011 81.49% -0.107 -0.1715
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1442 38.65% 35.08 0.009 79.68% -0.08 -0.099
Thunderspeaker 2375 30.78% 41.25 0.013 82.44% -0.057 0.0027
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 805 62.22% 31.98 -0.034 67.33% -0.329 -0.2926
Vital Strength of the Earth 1635 31.27% 31.76 -0.005 79.02% -0.415 0.4498
Volcano Looming High 241 44.77% 39.51 0.001 76.76% -0.124 -0.2246

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 79.93%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.66%
Scatter to the Winds 77.76%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 93.91%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11041 22.34 39.36%
II 25887 30.71 76.49%
III 16193 34.23 89.76%
IV 4057 37.48 98.94%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4346
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14081
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 18761
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 3979
Lose: Invader deck ran out 910
Lose: Adversary condition 3821
Win: Sacrifice victory 110
Lose: Scenario condition 467
Win: Scenario condition 1418
Lose: Blight pool ran out 8948
Lose: Spirit destroyed 337

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.742 Win Model: -0.171

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: -0.175
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 28169 49.96% 29.85 68.17%
2 15884 40.34% 34.49 79.19%
3 7194 33.97% 36.69 82.58%
4 5931 28.66% 40.07 83.85%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.057 Win Model: -0.807
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 55344 33.49 74.95%
Power Progression 1834 20.1 66.36%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-11-22 01:58:16 (Pacific Time)