Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Diversity of Spirits 0 9 22.22% 34.0 88.89% -0.189 -0.3908 0.07
Blitz 0 913 46.44% 26.74 68.46% -0.352 -0.0951 -0.89
Dahan Insurrection 4 1888 24.47% 55.31 80.19% -0.122 0.2913 0.393
Despicable Theft 2 169 44.38% 35.87 77.51% -0.368 0.0778 -0.131
Elemental Invocation 1 196 54.08% 32.4 68.88% 0.821 1.3067 -0.314
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4885 12.89% 47.85 84.4% 0.325 0.631 0.412
Powers Long Forgotten 1 604 57.48% 31.24 64.9% 0.44 0.6215 -0.789
Rituals of Terror 3 391 46.77% 39.61 68.8% -0.465 -0.3438 0.016
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 403 74.19% 34.64 55.33% -0.096 0.3195 -1.075
Second Wave 0 3962 42.01% 28.98 77.56% -0.606 -0.0402 -0.021
The Great River 3 159 63.29% 33.12 56.6% 0.074 1.4717 -0.549
Varied Terrains 2 6 33.33% 35.67 83.33% -0.151 0.3751 0.0
Ward the Shores 2 712 40.68% 35.5 61.66% -0.949 0.2127 -0.688

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
1 Single Board 40875 49.38% 29.76 69.84% 0.229 1.245 -0.293
1 Thematic 2488 55.53% 32.94 55.47% -0.074 1.0982 -0.199
2 Archipelago 28 46.43% 34.46 78.57% -0.535 0.4486 0.0
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 15965 42.17% 33.96 79.65% 0.3 1.0511 0.143
2 Coastline 1961 37.17% 33.38 81.69% 0.529 1.1318 -0.224
2 Fragment 444 46.96% 32.39 75.9% 0.092 0.5399 0.08
2 Heart 262 43.92% 27.74 74.81% 0.445 0.9829 -0.648
2 Opposite Shores 3225 32.77% 32.91 83.94% -0.057 0.9349 -0.308
2 Thematic 1495 43.53% 39.0 69.03% 0.889 1.5873 0.384
2 Top to Top 505 38.85% 35.52 83.56% 1.239 1.7493 0.228
3 Archipelago 18 22.22% 49.22 88.89% -0.455 -0.2815 0.399
3 Coastline 121 40.83% 37.59 80.17% 0.075 -0.7079 1.018
3 Other 348 30.59% 32.99 86.21% 0.142 0.1063 -0.193
3 Round (Default) 9865 34.64% 36.08 82.91% -0.001 0.5938 -0.018
3 Sunrise 78 35.06% 45.24 83.33% -0.083 -0.0464 0.888
3 Thematic 404 44.17% 37.95 71.04% 0.771 0.7335 0.115
4 Archipelago 24 34.78% 45.08 87.5% -0.465 -1.1765 -0.535
4 Coastline 35 37.14% 37.94 94.29% 0.34 0.4567 -0.138
4 Leaf 38 44.74% 32.61 73.68% 0.041 0.6036 0.725
4 Other 299 33.67% 37.97 85.28% -0.195 -0.4491 0.273
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 100.0% 0.0 -0.1871 0.0
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 Thematic 1527 30.76% 48.09 78.52% -1.771 -1.2417 0.284
4 Trapezoid (Default) 6706 28.54% 37.88 86.04% -0.234 -0.2612 0.015
5 Archipelago 9 55.56% 41.56 100.0% 0.017 -0.5623 0.0
5 Coastline 11 0.0% 44.0 100.0% 0.206 -0.3584 0.143
5 Other 233 29.82% 39.4 90.56% 0.054 0.2221 0.66
5 Thematic 32 43.75% 34.16 78.13% -0.022 -0.2985 0.223
6 Archipelago 18 20.0% 38.56 88.89% 0.064 -0.1913 -1.273
6 Coastline 17 22.22% 45.82 100.0% 0.267 -0.3224 0.368
6 Other 76 22.22% 31.92 88.16% -0.936 -0.1267 -0.32
6 Star 55 18.18% 36.62 85.45% 0.031 0.814 -0.748
6 Thematic 148 27.89% 36.29 87.16% -0.663 -0.9421 -0.543
6 Two Centers (Default) 337 19.02% 32.65 93.77% -0.118 -0.2122 -0.511
7 Archipelago 6 50.0% 34.83 100.0% 0.009 -0.5679 0.0
7 Coastline 1 0.0% 22.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Other 4 75.0% 21.25 50.0% 0.313 -0.8395 0.0

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Pall Upon the Land 3039 30.86 51.89% -2.068 -0.1646 -1.068
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2770 32.67 56.43% -1.86 -0.1299 -0.92
All Things Weaken 1686 32.85 55.34% -1.848 0.1377 -0.737
Back Against the Wall 2615 32.31 53.35% -1.634 0.183 -0.971
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2776 27.15 46.54% -1.943 0.1073 -1.303
Downward Spiral 4828 26.25 54.06% -2.032 -0.0389 -1.226
Erosion of Will 2941 29.34 47.77% -2.021 0.0621 -1.244
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 656 38.55 80.95% -0.235 0.2062 0.097
Memory Fades to Dust 4941 25.71 50.56% -2.2 -0.1157 -1.257
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1582 31.28 52.21% -2.052 -0.1139 -0.984
Promising Farmlands 2721 27.97 45.61% -2.112 -0.0659 -1.562
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 439 37.91 84.51% -0.245 0.1795 0.055
Thriving Communities 1509 29.12 49.11% -1.506 0.4782 -1.187
Tipping Point 955 29.14 48.38% 0.0 -0.1175 -1.277
Unnatural Proliferation 1703 32.18 50.68% -1.975 -0.0105 -1.081
Untended Land Crumbles 1552 29.35 49.03% -2.436 -0.4431 -1.337

Results using Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A 20617 39.05% 33.42 78.81% 0.484 1.2809 0.25
B 22680 37.69% 34.16 79.84% 0.308 1.0517 0.317
C 21970 38.56% 34.28 79.79% 0.382 0.9502 0.494
D 19916 37.32% 34.03 80.55% 0.139 0.9345 0.392
E 10614 42.52% 35.14 77.55% 0.099 0.7461 0.288
F 18370 39.02% 33.56 79.32% 0.125 0.8487 0.466
G 17838 40.56% 33.51 78.64% 0.203 0.9343 0.542
H 17999 38.89% 33.86 79.87% 0.492 1.2043 0.362
East 4439 41.34% 41.07 70.04% -0.225 0.544 -0.43
Northeast 3001 39.2% 42.37 71.24% -0.588 0.2724 -0.511
Northwest 2444 37.54% 43.48 74.14% 0.791 1.8672 -0.478
Southeast 991 40.59% 38.33 72.96% -0.263 0.4436 0.006
Southwest 891 42.95% 36.15 71.72% 0.039 1.164 -0.11
West 4121 42.45% 40.56 68.55% -0.625 0.329 -0.962

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
No Blight Card 2476 0.0% 19.87 69.87% -2.467 -0.3376 0.306
Not Using Events or Tokens 7878 38.13% 23.01 75.55% 0.138 0.3128 -0.597
Skip Initial Invader Actions 2297 17.32% 37.52 88.38% -0.031 -0.1728 -0.481
Start of Game Growth 3076 19.05% 37.22 88.3% 0.719 -0.0418 0.156
Unlimited Undo 7887 36.4% 33.34 82.58% 0.742 0.1381 0.43
Using Tokens but Not Events 10600 24.96% 30.55 86.34% 0.244 0.0872 0.036

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential Model (Diff≥10)
A Spread of Rampant Green 3892 100.0% 36.46 100.0% -0.053 -0.1683 -0.017
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1922 100.0% 34.43 100.0% -0.484 -0.3881 -0.223
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 4562 100.0% 33.4 100.0% -0.198 -0.3595 -0.403
Downpour Drenches the World 95 100.0% 30.95 100.0% -0.41 -0.1576 -0.123
Eyes Watch From the Trees 5284 100.0% 36.57 100.0% 0.522 0.084 0.029
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 4460 100.0% 33.1 100.0% 0.085 -0.403 -0.329
Finder of Paths Unseen 43 100.0% 35.86 100.0% -0.182 0.1814 0.049
Fractured Days Split the Sky 603 100.0% 40.78 100.0% -0.998 -0.9425 0.208
Grinning Trickster Stirs Up Trouble 396 100.0% 39.36 100.0% 0.312 0.2799 0.013
Heart of the Wildfire 2485 100.0% 36.68 100.0% 0.134 0.3083 0.263
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 4722 100.0% 40.64 100.0% 0.348 -0.1078 0.519
Lightning's Swift Strike 3124 119.17% 33.62 104.48% 0.356 0.6307 -0.302
Lightning's Swift Strike — Immense 40 50.0% 34.5 80.0% 0.321 -0.456 0.894
Lightning's Swift Strike — Pandemonium 370 37.85% 41.03 83.78% 0.837 0.1943 0.559
Lightning's Swift Strike — Wind 527 31.08% 41.6 86.34% 0.82 0.5538 0.365
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1967 100.0% 39.3 100.0% -0.128 -0.3949 -0.041
Many Minds Move as One 966 100.0% 36.05 100.0% -0.158 -0.7611 0.315
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 9314 100.0% 39.24 100.0% 0.58 0.3948 0.09
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 4643 100.0% 34.08 100.0% -0.015 0.0057 0.125
River Surges in Sunlight 5432 108.39% 38.77 102.67% -0.334 -0.3683 -0.044
River Surges in Sunlight — Sunshine 661 34.21% 36.67 79.27% 0.061 0.4919 -0.771
River Surges in Sunlight — Travel 58 42.86% 44.55 86.21% 0.389 0.0882 0.302
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2713 100.0% 38.46 100.0% -0.472 -0.5244 0.019
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1527 125.72% 31.18 109.17% -0.783 -0.3727 -0.377
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Amorphous 17 41.18% 29.24 64.71% -0.765 -0.7582 -0.749
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Foreboding 22 31.82% 44.95 90.91% 0.579 0.2325 0.927
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Madness 308 39.14% 35.72 77.92% -0.712 -0.6927 0.106
Shadows Flicker Like Flame — Reach 332 43.43% 37.89 80.72% -0.162 0.0211 0.447
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2993 100.0% 37.59 100.0% 0.253 -0.0338 -0.094
Shifting Memory of Ages 492 100.0% 34.19 100.0% -0.058 0.0168 -0.43
Shroud of Silent Mist 618 100.0% 33.86 100.0% 0.159 0.3957 -0.496
Starlight Seeks its Form 443 100.0% 40.15 100.0% 0.211 0.0715 0.661
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 2165 100.0% 35.22 100.0% 0.167 -0.0151 -0.364
Thunderspeaker 3373 100.0% 40.9 100.0% 0.047 0.1116 0.149
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 1246 100.0% 32.17 100.0% 0.109 0.0186 -0.489
Vital Strength of the Earth 2205 107.9% 30.51 103.22% -0.845 -0.0361 -0.137
Vital Strength of the Earth — Might 28 25.93% 40.79 96.43% 0.907 1.2942 0.348
Vital Strength of the Earth — Resilience 271 40.84% 30.56 74.17% 0.262 1.4362 -0.936
Volcano Looming High 1090 100.0% 36.49 100.0% -0.334 -0.3379 0.111

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 17259 22.56 42.19%
II 39742 30.98 77.2%
III 24438 34.53 89.82%
IV 6228 37.77 98.97%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 7280
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 21337
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 29214
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 6116
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1312
Lose: Adversary condition 5505
Win: Sacrifice victory 177
Lose: Scenario condition 641
Win: Scenario condition 1952
Lose: Blight pool ran out 13626
Lose: Spirit destroyed 507

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.452 Win Model: -0.223

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.282 Win Model: 0.41
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 43449 49.77% 29.96 69.0%
2 23932 40.59% 34.03 79.74%
3 10819 34.89% 36.2 82.65%
4 8678 29.07% 39.74 84.8%
5 140 25.58% 36.06 88.57%
6 649 21.86% 33.63 90.6%

Notes

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Only games completed within the last 30 days are included in the model. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Model (Diff ≥10)

Same as Win Model, but instead counts all games of difficulty 10 or higher, for all time.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Data collected before v.2.7.1 (May 2, 2025) use the end game state, even if the island layout changed due to powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep. Data collected from v.2.7.1 onward uses the layout as it was at setup.

Boards

All stats other than the Models include all times this spirit and that board appeared in the same game together. The Models count only games in which this spirit started on that board.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-09-02 02:08:59 (Pacific Time)