Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 728 45.64% 27.43 -0.029 69.23% -0.417 0.152
Dahan Insurrection 4 1644 24.24% 55.33 -0.002 79.74% -0.382 0.0165
Despicable Theft 2 88 46.59% 37.15 0.022 82.95% 0.163 0.4327
Elemental Invocation 1 124 49.19% 32.52 -0.018 71.77% -0.346 0.1183
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 4067 13.32% 47.34 0.027 83.3% -0.077 0.2899
Powers Long Forgotten 1 523 57.2% 31.22 -0.046 64.44% -0.494 -0.0496
Rituals of Terror 3 343 47.49% 39.87 -0.035 68.51% -0.501 0.1438
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 357 75.63% 34.57 -0.072 53.5% -0.384 0.2608
Second Wave 0 3209 43.03% 29.24 -0.01 76.94% -0.475 -0.046
The Great River 3 114 64.04% 32.78 -0.114 55.26% -1.587 -0.1237
Ward the Shores 2 599 40.87% 35.82 -0.081 60.43% -1.252 -0.2183

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 33105 49.42% 29.8 -0.021 69.57% -0.822 -0.6492
1 Thematic 2152 55.55% 33.28 -0.06 54.97% -0.723 -0.3614
2 Archipelago 4 25.0% 48.25 0.106 100.0% 0.36 0.5864
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 13057 42.08% 34.05 0.017 79.51% -0.227 -0.1751
2 Coastline 1511 35.44% 33.24 0.026 82.99% -0.183 -0.1753
2 Fragment 365 48.18% 31.88 -0.006 74.25% -0.488 -0.2315
2 Heart 200 45.13% 27.8 -0.018 73.0% -0.777 -0.6351
2 Opposite Shores 2650 32.0% 33.06 0.027 84.57% -0.212 -0.1214
2 Thematic 1281 42.66% 39.35 -0.023 68.54% -0.346 -0.3876
2 Top to Top 414 39.0% 36.0 0.029 82.85% -0.073 -0.1041
3 Archipelago 2 50.0% 81.5 0.149 100.0% 0.226 1.3079
3 Coastline 89 44.32% 40.17 0.003 76.4% 0.029 -0.1698
3 Other 269 32.33% 34.25 0.028 86.62% -0.092 0.0821
3 Round (Default) 8034 33.6% 36.38 0.018 83.06% -0.044 -0.1181
3 Sunrise 68 34.33% 47.66 0.028 83.82% 0.158 -0.1183
3 Thematic 332 44.11% 39.47 -0.022 70.18% -0.158 -0.5595
4 Archipelago 4 50.0% 59.0 0.074 100.0% 0.307 0.8151
4 Coastline 21 33.33% 36.95 0.044 90.48% 0.527 0.5767
4 Leaf 31 45.16% 33.32 -0.035 74.19% -0.553 -0.5815
4 Other 249 34.55% 38.76 0.019 85.54% 0.048 -0.0656
4 Reverse Snake 3 0.0% 40.0 0.061 100.0% 0.139 -0.7153
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.108 100.0% 0.582 0.6364
4 Thematic 1344 30.01% 48.48 0.005 79.39% 0.199 -0.8855
4 Trapezoid (Default) 5620 28.69% 37.87 0.014 85.71% 0.029 -0.0571
5 Archipelago 2 100.0% 56.5 0.07 100.0% 0.182 1.0585
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.065 100.0% 0.035 -0.1637
5 Other 109 29.52% 40.08 0.046 91.74% 0.849 0.246
5 Thematic 14 50.0% 39.07 0.093 92.86% 1.252 -1.5102

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2513 30.93 -0.125 52.41% -2.178 -0.1049
Aid From Lesser Spirits 2251 32.75 -0.107 56.24% -2.018 -0.0995
All Things Weaken 1263 32.75 -0.108 55.03% -1.999 0.1715
Back Against the Wall 2150 32.12 -0.125 52.7% -2.167 -0.0759
Disintegrating Ecosystem 2295 27.11 -0.156 45.88% -2.447 -0.2218
Downward Spiral 3978 26.45 -0.124 54.15% -2.188 -0.1651
Erosion of Will 2420 29.25 -0.149 47.31% -2.384 -0.1753
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 459 38.49 0.002 79.52% -0.883 -0.1971
Memory Fades to Dust 4059 25.72 -0.144 50.43% -2.385 -0.1668
Power Corrodes the Spirit 1177 31.52 -0.124 52.0% -2.157 -0.1333
Promising Farmlands 2247 27.91 -0.16 45.17% -2.492 -0.2779
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 337 38.21 0.019 83.38% -0.622 -0.2123
Thriving Communities 1121 28.86 -0.143 48.08% -2.316 -0.2207
Tipping Point 955 29.14 -0.142 48.38% -2.285 -0.0591
Unnatural Proliferation 1302 32.06 -0.131 50.15% -2.173 -0.0861
Untended Land Crumbles 1161 29.9 -0.132 49.87% -2.194 -0.0885

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 9198 43.16% 31.53 -0.003 74.67% 0.203 -0.5573
B 9794 41.41% 32.7 -0.001 75.79% 0.199 -0.6578
C 9999 42.55% 32.97 0.007 76.55% 0.323 -0.7654
D 8597 39.95% 32.65 0.012 78.12% 0.364 -0.4861
E 4243 47.44% 34.16 -0.003 72.8% 0.321 -0.6442
F 8117 43.08% 32.29 0.003 75.84% 0.294 -0.6201
G 8005 45.26% 32.06 -0.001 74.73% 0.253 -0.6527
H 8069 43.27% 32.32 0.005 76.29% 0.309 -0.6053
East 986 39.78% 42.51 -0.02 70.79% -0.284 -0.9332
Northeast 1218 46.52% 39.61 -0.044 63.38% -0.47 -1.0688
Northwest 976 40.02% 41.72 -0.006 72.85% -0.057 -0.7268
Southeast 357 44.38% 35.37 -0.033 66.11% -0.434 -1.14
Southwest 288 49.47% 33.84 -0.046 62.85% -0.487 -0.7605
West 1088 50.69% 38.15 -0.059 57.17% -0.472 -0.8706

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1986 0.0% 19.61 -0.068 70.04% -2.007 0.0497
Not Using Events or Tokens 6140 38.77% 23.15 -0.004 75.08% -0.253 -0.0369
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1838 17.94% 38.5 0.034 87.49% 0.257 -0.4298
Start of Game Growth 2505 18.92% 37.95 0.038 87.82% 0.553 0.0826
Unlimited Undo 6189 36.86% 33.65 0.023 81.74% 0.32 -0.0998
Using Tokens but Not Events 8380 26.3% 30.23 0.034 85.41% 0.171 0.1183

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 3140 28.3% 36.94 0.022 84.78% 0.036 0.1504
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1580 41.86% 35.0 -0.007 77.91% -0.297 -0.0906
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3628 29.55% 34.14 0.017 84.1% -0.035 -0.1406
Eyes Watch From the Trees 4146 25.66% 37.11 0.024 86.08% 0.068 -0.3246
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3641 31.18% 33.51 0.019 84.29% 0.046 -0.2446
Fractured Days Split the Sky 446 29.5% 41.99 0.037 87.44% 0.338 0.6913
Heart of the Wildfire 2140 48.63% 37.3 -0.0 76.87% -0.013 0.3156
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3952 33.23% 40.59 0.034 85.7% 0.37 0.0404
Lightning's Swift Strike 3135 35.88% 35.82 0.007 81.21% -0.111 0.1251
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 1303 42.54% 39.76 0.022 81.58% 0.256 -0.0315
Many Minds Move as One 752 37.8% 36.17 0.014 82.45% -0.053 -0.5836
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 7634 33.51% 39.65 0.026 83.23% 0.324 0.1089
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3734 32.72% 34.43 0.019 84.04% 0.033 0.0568
River Surges in Sunlight 4753 31.56% 38.64 0.009 82.37% -0.182 -0.0515
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2300 35.69% 38.61 0.009 81.0% -0.062 0.0534
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1772 44.33% 33.44 -0.015 75.73% -0.377 0.0398
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2434 35.26% 37.64 0.011 81.8% -0.119 -0.2167
Shifting Memory of Ages 102 37.25% 35.28 0.05 90.2% 0.759 0.8498
Shroud of Silent Mist 323 38.99% 34.87 0.016 82.97% 0.038 0.0678
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1756 38.44% 35.36 0.01 80.35% -0.082 -0.1303
Thunderspeaker 2783 30.8% 41.1 0.013 83.04% -0.071 -0.0384
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 998 60.93% 32.46 -0.035 67.84% -0.394 -0.4117
Vital Strength of the Earth 2005 31.42% 31.28 -0.006 79.45% -0.46 0.3934
Volcano Looming High 627 44.44% 38.23 0.007 79.11% -0.029 -0.0473

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 80.14%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.73%
Scatter to the Winds 77.87%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 94.01%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 13672 22.35 40.43%
II 32263 30.84 76.91%
III 19995 34.35 89.89%
IV 5005 37.52 98.88%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 5528
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 17449
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 23566
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4908
Lose: Invader deck ran out 1108
Lose: Adversary condition 4587
Win: Sacrifice victory 141
Lose: Scenario condition 563
Win: Scenario condition 1672
Lose: Blight pool ran out 11004
Lose: Spirit destroyed 409

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.777 Win Model: -0.171

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: 0.047
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 35283 49.81% 30.01 68.68%
2 19544 40.31% 34.16 79.71%
3 8784 34.1% 36.58 82.6%
4 7324 29.07% 39.87 84.63%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.065 Win Model: -0.899
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 68612 33.45 75.43%
Power Progression 2323 19.35 65.09%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2025-04-01 02:56:45 (Pacific Time)