Results in Scenarios

Scenario Diffi­culty Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
Blitz 0 640 46.3% 27.68 -0.028 68.91% -0.409 0.1679
Dahan Insurrection 4 1454 24.79% 55.08 -0.002 79.23% -0.377 0.0233
Despicable Theft 2 12 8.33% 34.67 0.04 91.67% -0.105 0.3237
Elemental Invocation 1 58 50.0% 33.64 0.015 79.31% 0.026 0.4071
Guard the Isle's Heart 0 3571 13.24% 47.41 0.028 83.17% -0.054 0.3116
Powers Long Forgotten 1 460 57.64% 31.19 -0.053 62.61% -0.56 -0.1189
Rituals of Terror 3 300 47.47% 40.81 -0.023 70.33% -0.339 0.2893
Rituals of the Destroying Flame 3 335 75.22% 34.21 -0.08 51.64% -0.482 0.168
Second Wave 0 2756 42.66% 29.48 -0.009 76.63% -0.471 -0.055
The Great River 3 83 65.06% 34.2 -0.106 56.63% -1.476 -0.0044
Ward the Shores 2 534 41.54% 35.77 -0.082 59.74% -1.256 -0.2192

Results using Layouts

# Boards Layout Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
1 Single Board 27595 49.49% 29.52 -0.021 69.32% -1.012 -0.6531
1 Thematic 1788 56.37% 33.32 -0.063 53.24% -0.953 -0.449
2 Bottom to Bottom (Default) 11159 42.1% 34.17 0.017 79.15% -0.247 -0.0509
2 Coastline 1235 35.33% 33.51 0.028 83.16% -0.172 -0.0298
2 Fragment 307 45.18% 30.97 -0.005 74.27% -0.542 -0.1199
2 Heart 170 47.27% 27.74 -0.015 72.94% -0.728 -0.4359
2 Opposite Shores 2209 32.95% 33.51 0.024 83.34% -0.27 -0.0454
2 Thematic 1151 41.91% 39.73 -0.023 68.29% -0.437 -0.3927
2 Top to Top 348 38.17% 36.53 0.027 81.9% -0.162 -0.0277
3 Coastline 74 41.1% 40.72 0.004 77.03% 0.112 0.0782
3 Other 228 33.33% 34.9 0.03 86.4% 0.046 0.4616
3 Round (Default) 6901 33.39% 36.4 0.02 82.96% 0.134 0.1734
3 Sunrise 62 32.79% 48.92 0.031 83.87% 0.327 0.1041
3 Thematic 286 44.56% 39.15 -0.027 68.53% -0.119 -0.476
4 Coastline 20 30.0% 36.95 0.039 90.0% 0.506 0.6641
4 Leaf 27 48.15% 32.96 -0.031 74.07% -0.186 -0.1579
4 Other 198 33.84% 39.45 0.012 83.84% 0.21 0.3234
4 Reverse Snake 2 0.0% 30.0 0.03 100.0% 0.061 -0.7276
4 Snake 3 33.33% 44.0 0.109 100.0% 0.655 0.7792
4 Thematic 1186 29.2% 48.54 0.005 79.01% 0.462 -0.6245
4 Trapezoid (Default) 4761 28.49% 38.03 0.014 85.23% 0.344 0.3266
5 Coastline 1 0.0% 69.0 0.066 100.0% 0.05 -0.0319
5 Other 74 32.88% 38.92 0.044 89.19% 0.948 0.7299
5 Thematic 9 55.56% 33.56 0.086 88.89% 1.186 -1.6414

Results using Blight Cards

Blight Card Com­pleted Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Pall Upon the Land 2151 30.96 -0.126 51.79% -2.174 -0.104
Aid From Lesser Spirits 1905 32.44 -0.109 55.7% -2.022 -0.104
All Things Weaken 958 33.17 -0.104 55.22% -1.923 0.232
Back Against the Wall 1840 31.88 -0.127 51.96% -2.172 -0.0762
Disintegrating Ecosystem 1983 26.91 -0.159 45.13% -2.46 -0.2359
Downward Spiral 3414 26.29 -0.126 53.51% -2.2 -0.183
Erosion of Will 2113 29.23 -0.151 46.57% -2.376 -0.1668
Invaders Find the Land to Their Liking 357 38.56 0.006 79.83% -0.822 -0.1174
Memory Fades to Dust 3506 25.6 -0.145 49.89% -2.392 -0.1771
Power Corrodes the Spirit 886 31.22 -0.123 51.69% -2.129 -0.1092
Promising Farmlands 1907 28.09 -0.157 45.57% -2.448 -0.2351
Strong Earth Shatters Slowly 251 39.12 0.021 83.27% -0.548 -0.1129
Thriving Communities 858 28.13 -0.144 47.32% -2.311 -0.2138
Tipping Point 953 29.14 -0.141 48.37% -2.264 -0.0458
Unnatural Proliferation 983 31.72 -0.133 49.34% -2.162 -0.0843
Untended Land Crumbles 917 29.06 -0.137 48.64% -2.243 -0.1446

Results Starting on Boards

Board Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A 7822 43.17% 31.54 -0.003 74.14% 0.169 -0.9208
B 8377 41.11% 32.63 -0.0 75.67% 0.17 -1.015
C 8432 42.49% 32.94 0.007 76.16% 0.287 -1.1276
D 7275 40.12% 32.49 0.011 77.68% 0.336 -0.8415
E 3172 48.18% 33.91 -0.004 72.1% 0.285 -0.9914
F 6833 42.97% 32.32 0.004 75.71% 0.275 -0.968
G 6822 45.47% 31.98 0.0 74.68% 0.249 -0.9812
H 6773 43.02% 32.44 0.006 76.11% 0.283 -0.957
East 877 39.01% 42.74 -0.017 70.81% -0.235 -1.1862
Northeast 1074 45.48% 39.98 -0.043 63.5% -0.437 -1.3267
Northwest 845 38.64% 42.22 -0.006 72.54% -0.043 -1.0075
Southeast 285 44.56% 35.19 -0.035 65.26% -0.434 -1.435
Southwest 234 49.78% 33.64 -0.042 63.25% -0.416 -1.0242
West 974 51.39% 37.9 -0.062 55.24% -0.442 -1.1277

Results Using Options

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
No Blight Card 1684 0.0% 19.24 -0.065 70.43% -2.001 0.0434
Not Using Events or Tokens 5120 39.16% 23.16 -0.003 74.96% -0.237 -0.0179
Skip Initial Invader Actions 1570 18.13% 39.19 0.033 86.88% 0.244 -0.4603
Start of Game Growth 2143 18.74% 38.51 0.037 87.35% 0.512 0.0576
Unlimited Undo 5142 37.05% 33.92 0.022 81.17% 0.291 -0.1215
Using Tokens but Not Events 6972 26.6% 30.09 0.036 85.1% 0.199 0.1514

Results With Allies

Option Com­pleted Blight Flip Rate Average Score Score Model Win Rate Win Model Differ­ential
A Spread of Rampant Green 2732 28.86% 37.12 0.021 84.04% 0.058 0.2041
Bringer of Dreams And Nightmares 1366 41.36% 35.33 -0.007 77.67% -0.237 -0.0006
Devouring Teeth Lurk Underfoot 3166 29.74% 34.59 0.018 83.67% 0.018 -0.0675
Eyes Watch From the Trees 3596 25.65% 37.54 0.025 85.87% 0.133 -0.2322
Fathomless Mud of the Swamp 3189 31.44% 33.85 0.018 83.63% 0.077 -0.1675
Fractured Days Split the Sky 298 30.98% 41.43 0.04 87.92% 0.491 0.8363
Heart of the Wildfire 1931 48.41% 37.8 0.003 77.16% 0.091 0.4415
Keeper of the Forbidden Wilds 3401 33.13% 40.37 0.034 85.45% 0.424 0.1248
Lightning's Swift Strike 2652 35.76% 35.73 0.005 80.43% -0.111 0.1578
Lure of the Deep Wilderness 798 44.92% 39.65 0.02 80.08% 0.335 0.0158
Many Minds Move as One 614 37.21% 35.85 0.012 81.76% -0.071 -0.5913
Ocean's Hungry Grasp 6627 33.24% 39.88 0.026 82.84% 0.369 0.1744
Rising Heat of Stone and Sand 3272 32.44% 34.51 0.018 83.44% 0.042 0.0908
River Surges in Sunlight 4087 31.05% 38.66 0.01 82.09% -0.148 0.0139
Serpent Slumbering Beneath the Island 2029 36.38% 38.83 0.009 80.43% -0.007 0.143
Shadows Flicker Like Flame 1524 44.81% 33.53 -0.015 75.33% -0.314 0.1352
Sharp Fangs Behind the Leaves 2148 34.96% 37.72 0.011 81.52% -0.094 -0.1613
Shroud of Silent Mist 43 34.88% 31.49 -0.015 76.74% -0.398 -0.4421
Stone's Unyielding Defiance 1513 38.16% 34.99 0.008 79.64% -0.085 -0.1042
Thunderspeaker 2448 30.65% 41.3 0.012 82.48% -0.042 0.0156
Vengeance as a Burning Plague 851 61.39% 32.24 -0.032 67.92% -0.296 -0.2757
Vital Strength of the Earth 1732 31.4% 31.63 -0.007 78.87% -0.422 0.4481
Volcano Looming High 381 43.77% 39.68 0.006 78.22% -0.026 -0.088

Minor Power Cards

Major Power Cards

Unique Power Cards

Power Card Kept
Gift of the Sunlit Air 79.9%
Gift of Wind-Sped Steps 89.64%
Scatter to the Winds 77.78%
Tempest of Leaves and Branches 93.97%

Terror Level

Terror Level Completed Average Score Win Rate
I 11526 22.34 39.68%
II 27077 30.75 76.56%
III 16944 34.26 89.73%
IV 4248 37.47 98.87%

Results

Result Completed
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror I) 4574
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror III) 14734
Win: Invaders destroyed (Terror II) 19653
Win: Terror victory (Terror IV) 4163
Lose: Invader deck ran out 947
Lose: Adversary condition 3955
Win: Sacrifice victory 115
Lose: Scenario condition 491
Win: Scenario condition 1470
Lose: Blight pool ran out 9339
Lose: Spirit destroyed 354

Difficulty

Score Model: 2.747 Win Model: -0.171

Number of Players

Score Model: 0.011 Win Model: -0.164
Num. Completed Blight Flip Rate Average Score Win Rate
1 29390 49.92% 29.75 68.34%
2 16636 40.39% 34.35 79.19%
3 7545 33.89% 36.64 82.48%
4 6224 28.83% 40.04 83.97%

Power Progression

Score Model: -0.058 Win Model: -0.818
Power Progression? Completed Average Score Win Rate
Standard 57856 33.41 75.06%
Power Progression 1939 19.89 66.27%

Notes

Score Model

Ridge regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and the score as the outcome. This corresponds 1:1 with score, e.g. a coefficient of +1 means a predicted score 1 higher than average. Ridge regression is used instead of standard linear regression because of high multicollinearity. Exception: For Difficulty, the Score Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Win Model

Logistic regression coefficient using all independent variables as predictors, and whether the game was won or not as the outcome. Higher values indicate greater likelihood of winning when present in the game. For continuous variables (e.g. number of players), this number is per unit. model.
Exception: For Difficulty, the Win Model is a separate model, using only difficulty as a predictor.

Differential

The difference between the logistic regression coefficient for this item using this Spirit, as compared to using this item in general. A negative number means that this Spirit underperforms using this item, and a positive number means that it overperforms.

Layouts

Diagrams of the layouts are on the main page. Layouts for completed games are shown as the same as what they were when the game was started, despite powers like Cast Down Into the Briny Deep.

Power Cards

Power card stats include the average difficulty level, average score, and win percentage when the card is owned by the player at the end of the game. "Discarded" is how often the card is in the discard pile, which could be by having not been chosen or by being forgotten, and not shuffled back in.

Data last updated: 2024-12-23 01:48:01 (Pacific Time)